15* Giants/Cowboys Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Dallas PK

This line opened as Cowboys -4 and has already moved at least four points to a pick ’em and +1 in some places. The move solely has to do with Tony Romo’s injury, but I’m not buying that he’s worth that many more points than Dak Prescott.

After all, there may have not been another player more important to his team in the entire country than Prescott in his time at Mississippi State. Just look at the Bulldogs’ result from Week 1 as they were upset at home by South Alabama.

And, you have to take notice of how dominant Prescott was in the preseason. He finished 39 of 50 passing (78.0 percent) for 454 yards with five touchdowns, two rushing touchdowns and no interceptions. After that performance, his teammates certainly believe in him.

The good news for Prescott is he won’t have to do it all. The Cowboys have the best offensive line in the game and an electric rookie running back in Ezekiel Elliott, who is primed for a huge year. Dez Bryant is also back healthy and says he will be unstoppable this season after missing most of last year due to injury.

I know this Dallas defense leaves a lot to be desired, but it actually held its own last season in allowing 23.4 points and 347.9 yards per game. There are some concerning suspensions, but Rod Marinelli has proven he can make the most out of the least amount of talent.

The Giants, on the other hand, were terrible defensively last season in giving up 27.6 points and 420.6 yards per game. That’s why they spent more money than any other team in the league on defense in free agency. But as we’ve seen time and time again, big spending sprees on free agents on defense don’t normally work out.

Dallas has certainly had New York’s number in recent years. Indeed, the Cowboys are 5-1 SU in their last six meetings with the Giants. The only loss was a 20-27 road loss last season in which the Cowboys actually outgained the Giants 460-289 and should have won. They outgained New York a combined 896-577 in their two meetings last year.

Plays on underdogs or pick (DALLAS) – bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games, in conference games are 61-30 (67%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last five games in Week 1.  Take the Cowboys Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Saints -1.5

The New Orleans Saints are flying under the radar heading into the 2016 season.  They have disappointed the last few years, so they aren't getting a lot of respect from the betting public like they used to.

The Oakland Raiders are the betting public's new favorite team it looks like.  Sure, this is a young team with potential, but they went just 7-9 last year and probably won't do a whole lot better than that in 2016.  I'm not ready to buy on them yet until they show it.

The Saints still have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL, and it is worth more than it is getting credit for in Week 1.  Essentially, the Saints just have to win this game to cover.  In the past few seasons, you don't get the Saints at under a field goal at home, and often times they would be double-digit favorites even.  The value is clearly with the Saints in this one.

Oakland is 39-76 ATS in its last 115 games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Raiders are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games with a total of 49.5 or more.  New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Oakland.  Roll with the Saints Sunday.

20* NFL GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Jets +2.5

The New York Jets were a playoff-caliber team last season in the first year under head coach Todd Bowles.  Most years, a 10-6 record would get you into the postseason.  It wasn't enough for the Jets, and they'll open 2016 hungry to start their climb to the playoffs.

The Jets were one of the best teams in the league statistically last season.  They put up 24.2 points and 370.3 yards per game on offense, and gave up only 19.6 points and 318.6 yards per game on defense.  They essentially outscored opponents by 6 points per game and outgained them by 52 yards per game.

New York had one of the better home-field advantages in the NFL last year as well.  It went 6-2 at home and scored 27.6 points per game while gaining 377.0 yards per game.  It only gave up 18.4 points and 300.2 yards per game, outscoring opponents by 9.2 points per game and outgaining them by 77 yards per game.

The Jets pretty much have all of their important pieces back from last season.  They even added a veteran running back in Matt Forte, who continues to get it done in spite of his game.  It was also nice that the Jets were able to sign Ryan Fitzpatrick early enough to get him ready.  He threw for 3,905 yards and a franchise-record 31 touchdowns last season.

Cincinnati is a solid perennial playoff team.  However, I believe the Bengals will not be nearly as good in 2016.  They lost a lot of key pieces from last year.  They have some huge injuries and suspensions they are dealing with to open 2016.

Tyler Eiferft, who caught 13 touchdown passes from the TE position, is out with an ankle injury to start the season.  Vontaze Burfict, their leading tackler and most important player on defense, is missing the first three games of the season due to suspension.

The Jets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games.  New York is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Bengals are 0-4 ATS in their last four trips to New York.  The home team has gone 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings.  The Jets are 6-0 SU in their last six home meetings.  Bet the Jets Sunday.

15* UNC/Illinois ACC vs. Big Ten No-Brainer on Illinois +7.5

For starters, the Fighting Illini are going to want revenge from their 14-48 loss at North Carolina last season. Now they get the Tar Heels at home this time around, and it’s going to be a great atmosphere as fans in Champaign are excited after their 52-3 victory over Murray State last week.

Illinois was better than its 5-7 record would indicate last season. It went through turmoil at the head coach position, but still nearly made a bowl game. Also, five of the seven losses came by 11 points or less, so that game against UNC was one of only two in which the Illini weren’t competitive last year.

The Fighting Illini have new life under former NFL head coach Lovie Smith, who was with the Bears for nine years and the Buccaneers for two. He inherited some nice talent, especially on the offensive side of the ball where seven starters returned.

The key was bringing back one of the most underrated QB’s in the country in Wes Lunt, the former Oklahoma State transfer. This offense has really clicked with him at QB. Lunt threw for 2,761 yards and 14 touchdowns against six interceptions last year. He welcomed backed two of his top three receivers this year, and leading rusher Ke’Shawn Vaughn (723 yards, 6 TD).

The offense really looked good against Murray State in the 52-3 win. The Fighting Illini racked up 515 total yards, including 226 passing and three touchdowns from Lunt. The defense was equally impressive under new defensive coordinator Hardy Nickerson, a five-time Pro Bowler. The Illini held Murray State to just 165 total yards while forcing three turnovers.

I believe UNC is one of the most overrated teams in the country after going 11-3 last year. It lost its most important player in QB Marquise Williams, and the defense is still terrible, just as it has been ever since Larry Fedora took over as head coach.

That was evident in the 24-33 loss to Georgia last week. UNC gave up 474 total yards to the Bulldogs and managed only 315 yards on offense, getting outgained by 159 yards for the game. New QB Mitch Trubisky struggled, completing just 24-of-40 passes for 156 yards with zero touchdowns.

But the real problem was stopping the run as the Tar Heels gave up 289 yards and 5.6 per carry to the Bulldogs. They will get shredded again on the ground by a Fighting Illini team that rushed for 287 yards and 7.2 per carry against Murray State. It’s also worth noting the Illini held the Racers to -10 rushing yards on 26 carries, which is impressive against any opponent.

Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ILLINOIS) – in non-conference games, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first month of the season are 140-79 (63.9%) ATS since 1992.

Larry Fedora is 0-7 ATS in September road games as the coach of North Carolina. Fedora is also 2-10 ATS in road games in the first half of the season as the coach of the Tar Heels. UNC is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games.  Roll with Illinois Saturday.

20* In-State Rivalry GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State +15.5

Certainly, a 20-25 home loss to FCS opponent Northern Iowa is concerning for Iowa State. The Cyclones clearly didn’t play their best game, and that wasn’t the way that former Toledo coach Matt Campbell wanted to start his tenure in Ames.

But I’m not going to look too much into that result. Iowa State always played Iowa tough, and it will be even more determined this week after that loss. Not to mention, Northern Iowa is one of the best FCS teams in the country as it was ranked No. 3 coming into the season.

Plus, Iowa has just as much reason to be concerned even though it beat Miami (Ohio) 45-21 last week. The Redhawks basically gave that game away by committing three turnovers that set the Hawkeyes up with great scoring opportunities.

In fact, Iowa was actually outgained by Miami (Ohio) by 20 yards. The defense gave up 424 total yards and 25 first downs to the Redhawks, while Iowa only managed 404 total yards and 17 first downs. That was a Miami team that went a combined 5-31 over the past three seasons.

I believe Iowa remains overvalued early in the season after going 12-0 in the regular season last year.  It failed to cover as 27.5-point favorites against Miami in the opener.  That game was clearly closer than the final score would indicate when you look at the stats.  At the same time, Iowa State is undervalued off a 3-9 season and a loss to UNI in its opener.  It’s the perfect storm value-wise.

I still think Iowa State is going to prove to be one of the most improved teams in the country this season. Campbell had 13 starters back and this team had a great offseason. The offense is loaded with studs at the skill positions in QB Joel Lanning, RB Mike Warren and WR Allen Lazard. The defense had eight starters back this year and will be improved.

The key here is that Iowa State always plays Iowa tough. In fact, Iowa State is 3-2 SU & 3-2 ATS in the last five meetings. All five meetings were decided by 14 points or less, including four by 6 points or fewer, so getting 15 points is an absolute gift from oddsmakers. The road team has won each of the last four meetings outright while going 4-0 ATS.

Plays on a road team (IOWA ST) – after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game, game between two teams with 5 or less offensive starters returning are 27-5 (84.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Iowa is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 home games off a no-cover where it won straight up as a favorite. The Cyclones are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 vs. Big Ten opponents. Iowa State is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss. The Hawkeyes are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. The Cyclones are 8-1 ATS in their last nine trips to Iowa.  Take Iowa State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Vanderbilt -4.5

Vanderbilt's 13-10 loss to South Carolina in its opener has it undervalued heading into this home showdown with Conference-USA foe Middle Tennessee State.  This is a very short number for an SEC team at home against a C-USA opponent.

I still believe Vanderbilt is going to be much better in 2016.  Derek Mason is in Year 3 and has his best team yet with 15 starters and 57 lettermen back while losing only 16 letter winners.

The Commodores were better than their 4-8 record would indicate last year as they took both Ole Miss and Florida down to the wire on the road.  Their defense gave up only 21.0 points per game last year and returned seven starters from that unit.

The offense will be improved, too, even after that poor performance against South Carolina in which they blew a 10-0 lead after it looked like they were going to roll early.  Ralph Webb rushed for 1,152 yards and five touchdowns last year and should get on track this week.  Webb went for 97 yards against South Carolina last week.

Middle Tennessee went 7-6 last year and has just 12 starters and 40 lettermen back while losing 30 letter winners.  The Blue Raiders are a solid, middle-of-the-pack team from Conference-USA, but they're a big step down in competition from South Carolina.

Yes, Middle Tennessee is coming off a 55-0 shutout victory over Alabama A&M, but it was a 47.5-point favorite in that game.  That's not as impressive as it looks.  The step up in competition this week will be felt.

Last year, Vanderbilt went on the road and beat Middle Tennessee 17-13 as 2-point underdogs.  It outgained the Blue Raiders 414-320 for the game, or by 94 total yards.  The Commodores rushed for 237 yards in that contest and will have their way on the ground again.

Middle Tennessee only has five starters back on defense and loses each of its top four tacklers from last year.  Head coach Rick Stockstill clearly doesn't make defending the run a priority.  The Blue Raiders have given up at least 183 rushing yards per game in five of the past six seasons.

Vanderbilt knows it is better than it showed against South Carolina and will be highly motivated to prove it at home Saturday.  This line is dropping because bettors don't like what they saw from Vanderbilt last week, and they are overreacting to MTSU's win over Alabama A&M.

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (VANDERBILT) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses against opponent first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with four or more wins in last five games are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS since 1992.


The Commodores are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. C-USA opponents.  The Blue Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. SEC foes.  The Commodores are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Duke -5

Wake Forest was supposed to be better entering Year 3 under Dave Clawson.  Well, that's clearly not the case after it only beat Tulane 7-3 at home as 14-point favorites.

That's really bad when you consider that Tulane went 3-9 last year and has a first-year head coach this season.  This is a Tulane team that gave up 36.3 points per game last year.

Wake had a terrible offense last year in scoring just 17.4 points per game.  It's terrible once again as the Demon Deacons only managed 7 points and 175 total yards against Tulane.  The Green Wave actually outgained them by 105 yards for the game.

Duke is one of the most underrated teams in the country year in and year out under David Cutcliffe.  The Blue Devils have gone a combined 28-13 over the past three-plus years.

The Blue Devils got off to a great start to their 2016 season by beating NC Central 49-6 and outgaining them by 423 yards in the process, taking care of business just as they were expected to, and unlike Wake Forest.

Duke has had Wake Forest's number in recent year.  It has won four straight meetings, including a 41-21 victory in its lone home meeting.  All four wins came by 6 points or more.  Duke is now 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with the Demon Deacons.  The Blue Devils are 24-11-1 ATS in their last 36 games overall.

Only having to lay 5 points on the clearly superior team at home is a gift from oddsmakers.  Wake has gone 3-9 each of the past two seasons and doesn't appear to be getting much better after that woeful performance against Tulane last week.  Roll with Duke Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Kentucky +17

There’s no question that a home loss to Southern Miss is a little concerning for Kentucky fans, but considering they were only 3.5-point favorites, it shouldn’t be that much of a shocker.

This was a Southern Miss team that returned 13 starters and 55 lettermen from a team that went 9-5 and made the Conference USA Championship Game. That includes sensational QB Nick Mullens, who threw for 4,476 yards and 38 touchdowns against 12 interceptions last year.

And the Wildcats were dominating this game with a 35-10 lead with less than a minute to play in the first half. They completely fell apart from that point-forward, getting outscored 34-0 the rest of the way by the Golden Eagles.

I still come away with some positives as Kentucky’s offense really got going behind talented sophomore Drew Barker, who threw for 323 yards and four touchdowns. This is an offense that returned nine starters from last year, and Barker wasn’t even one of them. This offense can keep them in the game against Florida.

Yes, Kentucky’s defense left a lot to be desired, but the good news is that its up against a Florida team that once again has no offense in 2016. I’m way more concerned with Florida’s lackluster 24-7 opening win against UMass as 34.5-point favorites than Kentucky’s loss to Southern Miss.

Florida is a team I am way down on this year. It got very lucky to win the SEC East last year with so many close wins. Five of its 10 wins came by a touchdown or less, including a 31-24 home win over ECU, a fluke 28-27 home win over Tennessee, an ugly 9-7 home win over Vanderbilt, and a 20-14 (OT) win at home against Florida Atlantic.

In fact, the Gators only outgained teams last year by 24 yards per game and outscored them by 4.9 points per game.  There's no way they should have won 10 games with those numbers.  The Gators’ true colors showed against the big boys in their final three games with a 25-point loss to Florida State, a 14-point loss to Alabama, and a 34-point loss to Michigan in the bowl game.

Florida’s offense managed just 334 yards per game and 23.2 points per game last season. That offense looked shaky in the 24-7 win over UMass again. The Gators only managed 363 total yards, including 107 rushing and 3.7 per carry.

The Gators were only leading UMass 10-7 at the end of the 3rd quarter before winning the 4th 14-0 to pull away. This was a UMass team that went just 3-9 with 19 starters back last year, and it only returned 10 starters this year. It’s also a team that gave up 31.4 points and 448 yards per game to opponents last year.

Kentucky will be highly motivated to end its 29-game losing streak to Florida; the longest active streak in the country. It has come close each of the last two years. It lost 30-36 (OT) at Florida as 17.5-point dogs in 2014, and 9-14 at home as 3.5-point dogs last year. The Wildcats weren’t overmatched in either game, and they certainly won’t be overmatched enough to lose by more than 17 points in this 2016 meeting.

Florida is 0-7 ATS in home games after allowing 14 points or less last game over the past three seasons. The Gators are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games. Florida is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a losing record. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  These four trends combine for a 22-1 system backing the Wildcats.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas -3

The Kansas Jayhawks come into the 2016 season way undervalued after going 0-12 last year.  I have no doubt they are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country with 16 starters back after having only six starters back in David Beaty's first season in 2015.

Beaty has done all the right things in Lawrence this offseason to improve this team.  Their strength training, which is well documented, will pay huge dividends.  They are bigger, stronger and faster this season, and several players who were forced into action as underclassmen last year are now a year older.

The improvements couldn't have shown more than they did in a 55-6 victory over Rhode Island in their opener.  Their three quarterbacks combined for six touchdown passes as they racked up 570 yards of total offense.  Their defense limited Rhode Island to just 219 total yards and forced three turnovers, outgaining them by 351 yards.

Ohio is a solid team under Frank Solich, but a 54-56 (OT) loss in their opener at home to Texas State as 17-point favorites is certainly concerning for the Bobcats.  They gave up 546 total yards in the loss, including 440 passing.  Kansas should have its way through the air against the Bobcats as well.

Kansas is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games vs. MAC opponents.  The Bobcats are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Kansas is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games after allowing 6 points or fewer in its previous game.

The Jayhawks are 29-4 SU in their last 33 home games vs. non-conference opponents.  With a small number of only 3, basically all they have to do is win this game to cover the spread.  It's time to hop on the Jayhawks' bandwagon now because in a few weeks bettors are going to realize this team is no longer a pushover.  Take Kansas Saturday.

25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Penn State +6

The Penn State Nittany Lions are a team I'm very high on this season.  They are in Year 3 under James Franklin, and he clearly has his best team yet.  He came into 2016 with 14 starters back and only 18 lettermen lost.

But the Nittany Lions are undervalued in 2016 because they are coming off back-to-back disappointing 7-6 seasons.  But now Franklin has the QB he recruited in Trace McSorley, and not the one that was handed to him in Christian Hackenberg, who wasn't a fit for the offense he prefers to run.

McSorley is a dual-threat guy who flashed that talent in a 33-13 win over Penn State in the opener.  He threw for 209 yards and two touchdowns, while also rushing for 47 yards.  The offense has nine starters back around him, so he doesn't have to do it all.  That includes one of the best RB's in the country in Saquon Barkley, who rushed for 1,076 yards and 7 touchdowns while averaging 5.9 per carry last year.  Barkley rushed for 105 yards and a TD in the opener.

Penn State has had an elite defense every year under Franklin, giving up 18.6 points and 279 yards per game in 2014, and 21.8 points and 324 yards per game in 2015.  They held Kent State to 279 total yards and forced three turnovers in the opener.  Now the offense will finally catch up to the defense this season.

While I like Pitt and its direction, I don't believe it should be favored against a top-tier Big Ten opponent.  I fully expect the Nittany Lions to win this game outright, so getting 6 points is an added bonus and a ton of value in a game that could easily go down to the wire and be decided by a field goal.

Pitt played in a ton of close games last season en route to going 8-5 in Pat Narduzzi's first season.  In fact, a whopping eight of those 13 games were decided by a TD or less.  These teams play similar styles as they like to run the ball and play good defense, which will lead to a close game.

Pitt wasn't impressive at all in its 28-7 win over FCS foe Villanova as 28-point favorites in the opener.  It only managed 261 yards of total offense while outgaining Villanova by only 89 yards.  The Panthers continue to be held back at the QB position as Nathan Peterman threw for only 175 yards.  James Connor returned from injury after missing most of last year and only rushed for 53 yards on 17 carries.  He may only be a shell of his former self this season.

Plays against a home team (PITTSBURGH) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 3 games are 29-6 (82.9%) ATS since 1992.

Franklin is a perfect 8-0 ATS off a no-cover where his team won as a favorite in all games he has coached.  His teams are winning 38.9 to 13.4 on average, or by 25.5 points per game.  This guy is the real deal and will do big things at Penn State sooner rather than later.  Bet Penn State Saturday.

15* Louisville/Syracuse ESPN 2 Friday No-Brainer on Syracuse +15

The Syracuse Orange are a team on the rise under first-year head coach Dino Babers. He led Bowling Green to an 18-9 record in his two years there and the MAC title last year. We all saw how poor Bowling Green looked in a 10-77 loss to Ohio State in their first game without him.

Babers stepped into a great situation at Syracuse with 16 returning starters. This is a team that lost only 17 lettermen from a year ago and will be much more competitive in ACC play after a down 4-8 season last year.

Babers brings a great offensive mind and calls his own plays. This offense racked up 554 total yards in a 33-7 win over Colgate in the opener. Sophomore QB Eric Dungey was brilliant, completing 34-of-40 passes for 355 yards and two touchdowns in the win. Eight starters are back on offense this year.

The defense was equally impressive in allowing just 143 total yards and 11 first downs to Colgate. This is going to be one of the most improved defenses in the country this season with eight starters and each of the top seven tacklers back from a year ago.

I think Louisville comes in overvalued here as more than a two-touchdown road favorite because of its emphatic 70-14 win over Charlotte last week. Well, Charlotte is one of the worst teams in the FBS as it recently just joined the FBS. The 49ers went 2-10 last year in their first season as members of the FBS and got outscored by 18.8 points per game.

I really think this is a tough spot for Louisville, too. It will be looking ahead to its showdown against Florida State next week, which will determine if the Cardinals have a shot in the stacked ACC Atlantic Division. I don’t believe the Cardinals will give the Orange their full attention as a result.

Syracuse is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 home games off a win by 17 points or more. The Orange are 20-5 ATS in their last 25 home games after allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards in their previous game. The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six conference games. The Orange are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games. They went 3-3 SU at home last year with all three losses coming to ranked teams in LSU, Pitt & Clemson by 10 points or less.

Plays on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (SYRACUSE) – in conference games, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 153-87 (63.8%) ATS since 1992.  The Orange should be able to stay within two touchdowns of the Cardinals tonight.  Take Syracuse Friday.

20* Panthers/Broncos 2016 NFL Season Opener on Denver +3

Rarely will you ever find a defending Super Bowl champion as an underdog at home in the regular season opener the next season. The last time it happened the Patriots won outright as 2.5-point home underdogs.

Defending Super Bowl champions are 14-2 SU & 10-4-2 ATS during Week 1 of the NFL regular season since 2000.  The Super Bowl runner-up is 5-11 SU & 3-12-1 ATS in Week 1 the following season since 2000.

I believe the value is with the Broncos at home here. I know Peyton Manning is gone, but the Broncos won in spite of him last year. They still have an elite defense led by Von Miller and company and will ride that defense once again this season. Trevor Siemian won’t be that much of a downgrade from Manning.

While Denver continues to lack respect from oddsmakers, Carolina comes into 2016 overvalued due to its 15-1 season last year. But this team got several good breaks in close games last year and won’t be going 15-1 again.

The Broncos have had a huge home-field advantage over the last several years and went 8-2 at home last season. They held opponents to 18.2 points and 271.1 yards per game at home last year.

The Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games dating back to last season. The Broncos are 7-1 ATS in their last eight Thursday games. The Broncos are 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS in their last five meetings with the Panthers.  Bet the Broncos Thursday.

20* Ole Miss/Florida State ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Florida State -4.5

Despite bringing back just 11 starters last year, the Seminoles still managed to win at least 10 games for the fourth straight season.  Now they are loaded with 17 starters back in 2016 in what will be one of Jimbo Fisher's best teams yet.

Eleven starters return on offense in all.  Every player that started last year is expected to start again except for at quarterback, where freshman Deondre Francois has played his way into the starting role for the opener.  This kid is one of the most electric young quarterbacks in the country, and I'm expecting a coming out party similar to that of Jameis Winston against Pittsburgh a few years back.

Francois won't have to do too much considering the talent is loaded around him.  He can give the ball to Dalvin Cook, who rushed for 1,691 yards and 19 touchdowns while averaging 7.4 yards per carry last year.  Almost every receiver who caught a pass last year is back, led by Travis Rudolph, who caught 59 balls for 916 yards and seven touchdowns.  The Seminoles have one of the best offensive lines in the country as well.

Defensively, Florida State gave up just 17.5 points and 337 yards per game last year.  They do only have six returning starters on defense, but the replacements are some of the top recruits in the country.  Fisher has always had a stout defense as the Seminoles have allowed fewer than 20 points per game in five of his first season seasons.  That will be the case again.

But now the Rebels only have 10 starters back this year and lose arguably their three best players to the first round of the NFL Draft in OT Laremy Tunsil, DT Robert Nkemdiche and WR Laquon Treadwell.

Ole Miss had a magical 10-3 season last year with 16 returning starters and a plethora of NFL talent.  But now the Rebels only have 10 starters back this year and lose arguably their three best players to the first round of the NFL Draft in OT Laremy Tunsil, DT Robert Nkemdiche and WR Laquon Treadwell.  While it's not a full-blown rebuilding year, there's no question that the Rebels will take a couple steps back in 2016.

While this game will technically be played on a neutral field, there's no question the Seminoles will have more fans there as it's played in Orlando.  The Seminoles are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.

Plays against any Any team (OLE MISS) - in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with three or more straight spread covers, team that had a good record last season (60% to 80%) playing a team that had a winning record are 28-5 (84.8%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Florida State Monday.

15* Notre Dame/Texas ABC Sunday ANNIHILATOR on Texas +3.5

I’m huge on Texas this year and believe it will compete for the Big 12 Championship. I love third-year head coaches like Charlie Strong, especially in situations like these. He didn’t have the players he wanted his first two seasons, but now he has mostly his players in place to execute his schemes in Year 3.

In fact, Strong welcomes back 15 starters and 52 lettermen this year, making this his most experienced team yet in Austin. The key will be improvement on offense, which won’t be a problem with new coordinator Sterling Gilbert, who guided Tulsa’s offense to over 500 yards of offense per game last year.

Tyrone Swoopes and stud freshman Shane Buechele are expected to share snaps this game. They will run Gilbert’s veer and shoot system, which is going to be completely different than what Notre Dame was up against last year. The change in scheme will cause some problems for Notre Dame’s defense as the Longhorns have the element of surprise working in their favor.

Strong should have his best defense yet at Texas with eight starters and seven of the top nine tacklers back from last year. The Longhorns are absolutely loaded with talent on this side of the ball, and several of the freshmen who played big minutes last year are now sophomores and will be improved greatly.

Many expect Notre Dame to compete for a national title this year, but I’m not seeing it. I see this as more of a rebuilding year for head coach Brian Kelly and company. That’s because the Fighting Irish return only four starters. They lose four of their top five receivers on offense, three starters along the offensive line, and six of their top eight tacklers on defense.

There’s no question that Texas has been working extra hard all offseason to try and avenge its ugly 3-38 loss at Notre Dame to open the 2015 season. The Longhorns will want this one badly, and now I would argue that they are actually the better team. They have 15 starters back compared to nine for Notre Dame, while last year they only had 11 starters back compared to 16 for the Fighting Irish.

This line has been bet down from 4.5 to 3 in a lot of places for good reason. Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TEXAS) – with 6+ more total starters returning than opponent, in the first month of the season are 58-24 (70.7%) ATS since 1992.  Take Texas Sunday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia -3

I believe the Georgia Bulldogs will hit the ground running in Kirby Smart’s first season on the job. Talent certainly was not the issue for this team under Mark Richt, who cashed in four 10-win seasons in his past five years. While I don’t agree with his firing, I do believe Smart will do just as good of a job, if not better, here.

Smart inherits a ton of talent and experience with 14 returning starters. The offense figures to be vastly improved with eight starters back and likely better play at the quarterback position. Greyson Lambert will get the nod after completing 63.3 percent of his passes with 12 touchdowns and only two interceptions last year. Look for the senior to step up his game this season.

The good news is that the Bulldogs will have an elite running game now that Nick Chubb is back and healthy. They started 4-1 last year with their only loss to Alabama, but then Chubb was out for the year with a knee injury suffered against Tennessee and the Bulldogs leading 24-3. They would go on to lose that game. Chubb still finished with 747 rushing yards and seven touchdowns while averaging 8.1 yards per carry in five-plus games.

The biggest thing Smart adds to this team is his expertise on defense. And he should come close to matching Georgia’s numbers last year on this side of the ball. It gave up just 16.9 points and 306 yards per game. Four of the top seven tacklers and six starters return.

I have a very good feeling that UNC was a one-hit wonder last year. It came out of nowhere to win 11 games and the Coastal Division. But now the hype is too strong heading into 2015, and the Tar Heels are sure to take a step back.

They do return 14 starters, but they lose their best player in QB Marquise Williams, who threw for 3,072 yards with 24 touchdowns and 10 interceptions last year. He also rushed for 948 yards and 13 scores. The Tar Heels will turn to junior Mitch Trubisky, who has some massive shoes to fill.

Defensively, the Tar Heels only gave up 24.5 points per game last year after giving up 39.0 in 2014. However, they still gave up 436 yards per game and weren’t that good of a defense. They surrendered 17.8 yards per point last year after giving up 12.8 yards per point in 2014. That was more luck than anything.

North Carolina is 2-11 in its last 13 road openers and went 0-3 last year in games played on a neutral field, including a 13-17 loss to South Carolina in the opener. That was an awful Gamecocks team that finished 3-9 on the season. The Tar Heels really struggled against the big boys last year in Baylor and Clemson as well.

I also like the fact that this is essentially a home game for the Bulldogs as it's played in Atlanta and not even close to a neutral field.  Plus, Chubb and the Georgia rushing attack should have their way all game.  UNC surrendered 247 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry last year.  In its final three games, it gave up 308 rushing yards to Virginia Tech, 319 to Clemson and a ridiculous 645 to Baylor.

Georgia is 25-10 ATS in its last 35 vs. ACC opponents. The Bulldogs are 28-12 ATS in their last 40 non-conference road games. Larry Fedora is 0-6 ATS in September road games as the coach of North Carolina.  Roll with Georgia Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Wisconsin +10

I was impressed with Paul Chryst in his first season in Madison. He took a team that returned just 11 starters and won 10 games. Two losses came by a combined 10 points, and the other was against eventual national champion Alabama in the season opener.

Now Chryst has 12 starters and 51 lettermen back in 2016, and these players are familiar with his systems. Senior RB Corey Clement couldn’t stay healthy last year, otherwise the story may have been different in the Big Ten West. Clement is now healthy and ready to carry the load offensively as the Badgers get back to ground-and-pound after a sub-par season on the ground last year.

I really don’t think the Badgers are going to miss QB Joel Stave that much. After all, he threw just 11 touchdown passes against 11 interceptions last season. Fifth-year senior Bart Houston won the job in camp and should be able to surpass Stave’s mediocre numbers this season. But the key on offense is having four returning starters and 62 career starts along the offensive line.

Defensively, Wisconsin gave up just 13.7 points and 269 yards per game last season. Now they have six starters and four of their top six tacklers back from last year. They are very strong up front with five starters back among their front seven.

That’s key because the Badgers only gave up 95 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry last season. Since LSU lacks a passing game as Brandon Harris has disappointed and will start again, it’s going to be all Leonard Fournette offensively for the Tigers. That makes this an excellent matchup for the Badgers, who will rise to the occasion and hold Fournette in check.

This is essentially a home game for the Badgers as it will be held in their home state of Wisconsin at Lambeau Field. We saw two years ago Wisconsin hold a 24-13 lead over LSU in Houston at the end of the 3rd quarter, only to get outscored 15-0 in the final period and lose 28-24. I look for this meeting to go right down to the wire as well, thus getting 10 points is a value, especially with the location of the game and the favorable matchup.  Take Wisconsin Saturday.

20* UCLA/Texas A&M CFB Saturday No-Brainer on Texas A&M -3

The Texas A&M Aggies failed to meet expectations last year because their offense was the worst of the Sumlin era. They only put up 27.8 points per game after averaging 41.3 points per game in his first three years on the job. But you can’t hold a Sumlin offense down for long.

The problem last year was at quarterback as both Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray struggled. Both transferred in the offseason, paving the way for former Oklahoma transfer Trevor Knight to take over the job in 2016. He made 15 career starts with the Sooners and threw for 3,424 yards while also rushing for 853 yards and 5.6 per carry. He’ll be a big upgrade at the position.

Also helping out Knight is the fact that he has arguably the best set of receivers in the country. Each of the top five receivers are back from last year. Leading the way are Christian Kirk (80 receptions, 1,009 yards, 7 TD last year), Josh Reynolds (51, 907, 5 TD), Ricky Seals-Jones (45, 560, 4 TD) and Speedy Noil (21, 226, 2 TD). Noil will miss this game due to suspension, but that’s not a big loss.

The sad part about last season is that the Aggies wasted their best defense of the Sumlin era. John Chavis was one of the most underrated coordinator hires in the country last season, and he helped guide the Aggies into giving up just 22.0 points and 380 yards per game.

Now the Aggies return seven starters and seven of the top eight tacklers on D, making this one of the best stop units in the SEC. They have the best DE tandem in the country in Myles Garrett (12.5 sacks last year) and Daeshon Hall (7 sacks), who will be key in this game in getting after Josh Rosen and UCLA’s passing attack.

While there’s no denying that Rosen is one of the best QB’s in the country, I am concerned about the lack of experience around him as the Bruins return just four starters on offense. They lose four of their top five receivers from last year and leading rusher Paul Perkins (1,343 yards, 14 TD), who did everything for this team.

Sumlin certainly knows how to get his teams ready for the season. The Aggies have gone 5-0 to start each of the last two seasons. They beat South Carolina 52-28 on the road in their opener as 10-point dogs in 2014, then stomped Pac-12 opponent Arizona State 38-17 on a neutral field to open 2015.

Now the Aggies get to play at home, where they are 26-2 in their last 28 home openers. Texas A&M is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 September games. I look for a hostile atmosphere in College Station to be key in guiding the Aggies to a win and cover Saturday afternoon.  Bet Texas A&M Saturday.

20* K-State/Stanford CFB Friday No-Brainer on Stanford -14

Stanford head coach David Shaw continues to do a tremendous job in recruiting. Despite returning just 12 starters last year, the Cardinal went 12-2 and beat Iowa by 29 points in the Rose Bowl. Now they return just 11 starters, but that’s not a big concern given the talent level on hand.

The biggest concern is replacing Kevin Hogan at quarterback. But senior Ryan Burns has been waiting his turn and is prepared to take over the job. He stands 6’5″ and 233 pounds and was a highly rated recruit as a high school player in Virginia, but he couldn’t find the field because of Hogan’s success.

The good news is that Burns will be handing the ball off to Christian McCaffrey, who should have won the Heisman Trophy last year. McCaffrey broks Barry Sanders’ record for all-purpose yards in a season last year. He finished with 2,019 rushing yards and 645 receiving yards and was a beast on special teams as well.

The Stanford defense figures to be dominant once again with six starters back from a unit that gave up 22.6 points per game last year. The D only had three starters back last season, so improvement can be expected on this side of the ball. Look for the Cardinal to get back to the 16.4 points and 282 yards per game they allowed in 2014.

While the Cardinal are legit national title contenders, the K-State Wildcats finally look like they’re fading in the Big 12 under legendary coach Bill Snyder. They went just 6-7 last year and were blown out 55-0 by Oklahoma and 45-23 by Arkansas in the process. They were outgained by 118 yards per game overall and 153.6 yards per game in Big 12 play last year.

Now the Wildcats have just 12 returning starters and all kinds of questions on offense. Jesse Ertz was hurt last year, so he’ll be back, but he’s not going to have much success against this dominant Stanford defense. I expect this game to play out similar to the 45-23 Arkansas game and the 45-16 beat down Stanford put on Iowa, which was a much better team than Kansas State.

Stanford is 42-5 at home over the past seven seasons. It has won 15 straight non-conference home openers with its last lost coming to Notre Dame. The Cardinal have won eight straight home openers by an average of 27 points per game as well.

Plays on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (STANFORD) – solid team from last season – outscored opponents by 10 or more points/game, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 35-10 (77.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

Stanford is 8-0 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points over the last three seasons. The Cardinal are 49-24-1 ATS in their last 74 games overall, including 38-18 ATS in their last 56 home games.  Bet Stanford Friday.

15* CFB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado -8.5

The Colorado Buffaloes are primed to be one of the most improved teams in the country this season. Injuries absolutely killed this team last year as they were better than their 4-9 record would indicate. They have lost a whopping eight Pac-12 games by a touchdown or less over the last two seasons alone.

Now fourth-year head coach Mike MacIntyre is going to have his best team yet. The Buffaloes return 18 starters and 63 lettermen, making them the most experienced team in the Pac-12. Look for this team to be undervalued early in the season, and I believe they aren’t getting enough respect as only 8.5-point favorites here.

Starting QB Sefo Liufau is now a senior and has already thrown for 7,397 yards in his career. He’ll be the school’s all-time leading passer by within a couple games this season. He is among nine returning starters on offense from a unit that put up a respectable 397 yards per game last year.

The defense improved dramatically last season in allowing just 27.5 points per game after giving up 39.0 in 2014. Now the Buffaloes should take another step forward with nine starters and each of the top four tacklers returning.

While Colorado is on the rise, Colorado State is surely on the decline this season. Mike Bobo stepped into a great situation last year with 15 returning starters left over from Jim McElwain, who left for Florida. All he could get out of that team was a 7-6 record after they went 10-3 the year before.

Now it looks like a rebuilding year as the Rams return just 10 starters. The offense returns QB Nick Stevens, but he loses each of his top four receivers from last year, including stud Rashard Higgins, who caught 75 balls for 1,062 yards and eight touchdowns.

While the offense should still be decent, the bigger concern is on defense where the Rams return only four starters. They had eight starters back on D last year and gave up 27.2 points per game, and now they’ll easily give up 30-plus in 2016. That explosive Colorado offense should have its way with this inexperience Rams’ defense in Week 1.

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (COLORADO) – in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses against opponent first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with four or more wins in last five games are 37-12 (75.5%) ATS since 1992.  Take Colorado Friday.

20* Oregon State/Minnesota Pac-12 vs. Big Ten BAILOUT on Oregon State +13

The Oregon State Beavers come into the 2016 season undervalued because of their 2-10 campaign last year. That’s pretty evident by the fact that they are 13-point underdogs to a Minnesota team that finished in the bottom half of the Big Ten last year with a 5-7 record during the regular season.

While I do like this Minnesota team, I do not agree that it should be 13-point favorites here Thursday night. The Golden Gophers return 13 starters and 39 lettermen, but they lose four of their top six tacklers on defense.

Most of their returning starters are on offense with seven in all, but this is a unit that put up just 22.5 points per game last season. With the lack of an explosive offense, it’s easy to predict that the Golden Gophers are going to have a hard time covering this 13-point spread in what should be a low-scoring affair.

Gary Andersen did a tremendous job at Utah State and Wisconsin before coming here. He won 30 games over a 3-year span before coming to Oregon State. Then he stepped into an awful situation as the Beavers had just nine returning starters last year, including two on defense.

But now Andersen has more of his players in place and 13 starters and 47 lettermen returning while losing only 17 letter winners. The Beavers go from an inexperienced team to one that now has eight projected senior starters. I look for them to surprise some folks this season and to be much more competitive than last year.

Andersen brought Utah State transfer Darell Garretson with him to Corvallis. He completed 67% of his passes for 1,140 yards with an 8-to-3 TD/INT ratio in 2014 while making four starts with the Aggies. He then sat out last season and now Garretson will guide what should be one of the most improved offenses in the country. Garretson was very impressive in the spring and should build off of that.

Oregon State has won three of its last four road openers. Five of Minnesota’s six wins last season came by 9 points or less, so it isn’t used to blowing teams out. Andersen is 17-6 ATS as a road underdog in all games he has coached. Andersen is 22-10 ATS in his career in non-conference games.

It’s also worth noting that Minnesota’s leading rusher last year was Shannon Brooks (709 yards, 7 TD, 6.0/carry), and he’s doubtful Thursday with a foot injury.  Bet Oregon State Friday.

15* CFB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Rice +16

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are coming off a magical 2015 season in which they went 12-2 and won the Conference USA title.  It was their first 12-win season since 2002 when they won the FCS title.

It's safe to say that the Hilltoppers are now way overvalued heading into 2016.  I'll gladly fade them now as they go from 16 returning starters last year down to 12 this season.

The key loss for the Hilltoppers is C-USA Offensive Player of the Year Brandon Doughty, who threw for 5,055 yards and 48 touchdowns against nine interceptions last year.  Doughty shattered the career passing yards mark at WKU with 12,855 yards.  He's one of those guys who is irreplaceable, and the Hilltoppers won't be nearly as good without him.

Another big concern is that WKU goes from having nine returning starters on D last year to just four returning starters this year.  They had only four starters back on D in 2014 when they gave up 39.9 points and 510 yards per game, but dropped to 25.9 and 405 last year with an experienced D.  They'll get back to giving up boat loads up points in 2016.

Rice is certainly a team primed for a bounce-back year after going 5-7 last season.  They had gone a combined 18-9 the previous two seasons, but they had just nine starters back last year and it was a rebuilding season.

David Bailiff is one of the most underrated coaches in the country, and now he'll be working with one of his better teams at Rice.  The Owls return 16 starters and 52 lettermen while losing only 17 letter winners.  This is a team that I fully expect to challenge for the C-USA title in 2016.

The biggest improvement for Rice will come on defense as they had just three returning starters last year and gave up 35.8 points and 447 yards per game.  But now they return nine starters on D and each of their top seven tacklers. In fact, this will be one of the most improved stop units in the country.

The offense figures to be improved as well with four veteran running backs, six of the top seven receivers returning, and an improved offensive line.  The key will be getting better QB play, which shouldn't be a problem after inconsistency last year.  Senior Tyler Stehling has been waiting for his time and this will be his year after throwing for 479 yards in 10 games as a back-up previously.

Most will look at WKU's 49-10 win over Rice last season and think the Hilltoppers will run away with it.  But a closer look shows that the Owls gave away that game by losing the turnover battle 5-0.  I expect this opener to be much more competitive and for the Owls to stay within two touchdowns.  Take Rice Thursday.

20* Cal/Hawaii 2016 CFB Season Opener on Hawai'i +20

Last season set up perfectly for the Cal Golden Bears to have their best year of the Sonny Dykes era. They had a whopping 17 returning starters, including eventual No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff at quarterback. They made the most of it and went 8-5 overall.

But now Dykes will be rebuilding in his 4th year here. The Golden Bears lose a whopping 29 players who contributed in 2015, including Goff and his top six receivers. They went from being the #3 most experienced team in the country last year to #119 this year. They return just nine starters in all.

While the losses on offense are huge, the lack of proven playmakers on defense are just as big. The Golden Bears have lost each of their top six tacklers from last year after SS Damariay Drew tore his ACL in the spring and is out for the year. They are going to have a hard time stopping anyone this season.

It’s certainly hard to be too high on Hawai’i coming into 2016 after going a combined 11-39 over the past four seasons. However, I like the new head coach in Nick Rolovich, who had some great offenses at Nevada after spending the past four years as their coordinator. The new defensive coordinator is Kevin Lampa, who has a whopping 42 years of coaching experience.

The cupboard certainly isn’t bare for the Warriors, who return 15 starters and 46 lettermen while losing only 18 letter winners. The offense figures to be much better under Rolovich’s tutelage with the experience that returns.

Senior QB Ikaika Woolsey has been named the starter. He has made 19 starts in his career here and should be primed for his best season yet. Leading rusher Paul Harris (1,132 yards, 6 TD, 5.7/carry last year) is back, as are each of the top three receivers from a year ago. Four starters return along the offensive line as well. I look for this unit to have plenty of success against an inexperienced Cal defense.

Hawai’i has been a great bet in Week 1 each of the past five seasons, going a perfect 5-0 ATS during that stretch against five straight Pac-12 opponents. It beat Colorado 34-17 as 6-point home favorites in 2011, covered as 42-point dogs at USC in a 10-49 loss in ’12, covered as 23-point home dogs to USC in a 13-30 loss in ’13, nearly upset Washington as 17-point home dogs in a 16-17 loss in ’14, and upset Colorado 28-20 as 7-point home dogs in ’15.

The Warriors are 21-8 ATS in the first two weeks of the season since 1992. The Golden Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games. The Warriors are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. Pac-12 foes.  Bet Hawai'i Friday.

20* Broncos/Panthers Super Bowl 50 No-Brainer on Denver +5.5

The betting public is all over the Carolina Panthers due to their dominant win over the Cardinals in the NFC Championship. They have driven this line all the way up to -5.5 when the advanced line on the game was Panthers -3. I think that extra 2.5 points of value on two key numbers of 3 and 4 makes it an easy decision to take the Broncos in a game that I feel will go right down to the wire.

For starters, the Broncos have the best defense in the NFL and a strong running game. They ranked 1st in the NFL in total defense, 1st against the pass, and 3rd against the run during the regular season. There is no defense in the league better equipped to stop the NFL’s top-ranked scoring offense in the Carolina Panthers than these Broncos.

This defense has held strong in the playoffs, too. The Broncos limited the Steelers to just 16 points in the Divisional Round. That was a Steelers offense that came in ranked as the 3rd-best unit in the league. They then held Tom Brady and the Patriots to just 18 points in the AFC Championship Game. Brady and company had done nothing up until the final two drives of that game, and even though they gave up a fluky touchdown on 4th down, they held on the 2-point conversion that would have tied it.

Yes, Peyton Manning is past his prime, but he’s good enough to lead the Broncos to a victory, which he has done in three straight games now. He led the Broncos on scoring drives in four of his five possessions against the Chargers in a 27-20 victory in Week 17. He then put up better numbers than his final line indicated against the Steelers due to seven dropped passes from his receivers. He led the Broncos to 23 points against Pittsburgh, and 20 against the Patriots before taking their foot off the gas with a big lead in the 4th quarter. He also threw two touchdowns  against New England, and he hasn’t thrown an interception in any of his last three games.

While the Panthers deserve credit for their home wins over the Seahawks and Cardinals, they certainly had those two games given to them as well. The Seahawks were -2 in turnover differential and the Cardinals were -6 as those two teams committed a combined nine turnovers, two of which were returned for touchdowns, and several others that set up easy scores for Carolina’s offense. This team has been living off turnovers all season, which is tough to bank on, especially since the Broncos are taking care of the ball.

Take out Carolina's unlikely plus-28 turnover differential, and it's easy for me to see that the Broncos have actually been the better team this season.  They have outgained opponents by an average of 55 yards per game on the season against a very tough schedule.  The Panthers played one of the easiest schedules in the NFL this season, and they are ougaining opponents by 40 yards per game.

Denver has the best pass rush in the NFL. Tom Brady hasn’t taken a beating like the one he did against the Broncos in quite some time. Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware are the kind of edge rushers who aren’t going to let Cam Newton beat them. They have the athleticism to stay with Newton if he tries to escape the pocket, and the rush lane integrity to make sure he doesn’t step up in it and run for multiple first downs. This will easily be Newton’s stiffest test yet.

This season just has a special feeling about it for the Broncos, too. John Elway went out on top, and I have the feeling that Manning is going to follow in his footsteps and go out a champion as well. Manning has hinted several times that this will be his last rodeo. And he is finally on a team that has the best defense he’s ever been a part of, and a sound running game, that can help him get over the top and get that coveted second Lombardi Trophy. He doesn’t have to do too much because this is a complete team that can beat you a number of ways.

Denver is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest. The Broncos are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games in games played on a grass field. The Broncos are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.  Playoff underdogs of at least 4.5 points have gone 42-28 ATS in their last 70 tries.  Playoff underdogs of at least 4.5 points who are receiving less than 50 percent of spread bets have gone 28-14 ATS in their last 42 tries.  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

My Top 10 Favorite Super Bowl Prop Bets (at 5Dimes)

10. Longest Field Goal Made OVER 44.5 (-120)

9. Carolina converts a 4th down (Yes +145)

8. Total Field Goals attempted OVER 4 (+130)

7. Cam Newton OVER 39.5 rushing yards (-115)

6. Total Touchdowns scored UNDER 5.5 (-145)

5. Owen Daniels OVER 2.5 Receptions (-150)

4. Cam Newton Longest Rush OVER 12.5 yards (-115)

3. Carolina players with a rush attempt UNDER 4.5 (-145)

2. Peyton Manning UNDER 36 pass attempts (-120)

1. Will Luke Kuechly intercept a pass (No -270)

20* Cardinals/Panthers NFC Championship No-Brainer on Arizona +3

Admittedly, I have been wrong on the Carolina Panthers all season. I have gone against them most weeks and have been burnt by doing so. But I still believe this team to be overvalued, and I do not believe they are the best team in the NFC. I have been calling the Cardinals the best team in the NFL for months, and I believe that will prove to be the case as they pull off the upset victory as 3-point road underdogs in the NFC Championship Game.

The numbers support my theory that the Cardinals are the best team in the NFL. They ranked 2nd in the league in yardage differential this season, outgaining teams by 86.6 yards per game. They only trailed Seattle (+86.8 yards/game) in that category after losing to the Seahawks in a meaningless Week 17 game while getting outgained by 122 yards. That was the only reason they didn’t finish No. 1 in that category.

Carolina also ranks a solid 5th in yardage differential, but it is only outgaining opponents by 44.0 yards per game on the season. While still solid, the fact of the matter is that the Panthers have been fortunate by scoring so many defensive touchdowns this season. They scored another defensive touchdown against the Seahawks, and they had another interception that set up an easy score. That proved to be the difference in a 31-24 win.

But the Panthers were outgained 295-403 by the Seahawks, or by 108 total yards. They have actually been outgained in three straight games now as they were outgained by 105 yards in a 13-20 loss to the Falcons in Week 16 and by 20 yards in a blowout win over Tampa Bay in Week 17 in a game that was closer than the final score would indicate.

The Cardinals are the perfect team to take advantage of Carolina’s biggest weakness, which is its secondary. The Cardinals rank 1st in the NFL in total offense (408.3 yards/game) and 2nd in passing offense (288.5 yards/game). The Panthers are without two of their top three cornerbacks in Charles Tillman and Bene Benwikere. They were forced to sign Cortland Finnegan off the couch a few weeks ago.

Carolina’s passing defense has been exposed in its last three games. It gave up 296 passing yards to Atlanta, 309 to Tampa Bay and 325 to Seattle. That’s an average of 310.0 passing yards per game. Now the Panthers will be up against what I believe to be the best passing game in the NFL. The Cardinals lead the league in big passing plays as they take shots downfield more than anyone. Safety Kurt Coleman is also a liability in coverage, so look for Carson Palmer to target him a bunch. Palmer should have more time to throw the ball now that DE Jared Allen suffered an injury against Seattle and is doubtful to play this week as well.

The top-ranked passing attack in the NFL is the Saints at 310.6 yards per game. Well, the Saints put up 38 points on the Panthers and nearly pulled off the upset, but their league-worst defense couldn’t hold a late lead in a 41-38 loss. The Cardinals have the type of defense that will hold a lead when they get it. They ranked 5th in the NFL in total defense during the regular season at 321.7 yards per game allowed.

The Panthers get a lot of credit for their defense, but this is a stop unit that allows 326 yards per game and 5.5 per play against opposing offenses that only average 343 yards per game and 5.6 per play. The Cardinals give up 323 yards per game and 5.1 per play against opponents that average 361 yards per game and 5.7 per play. So the Panthers are only allowing 17 yards per game and 0.1 per play less than their opponents average, while the Cardinals are allowing 38 yards per game and 0.6 per play less than their opponents average. Everyone knows that the Cardinals have the better offense between these teams, but they also have the better defense when you look at the numbers.

Believe it or not, Arizona has actually played better on the road this season than at home. It is 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in road games, outscoring opponents by 14.0 points per game, and outgaining them by 91.0 yards per game. Its only road loss came at Pittsburgh in a game that it actually outgained the Steelers 469-310, or by 159 yards, and one it never should have lost in the first place.

Arizona is 30-11 ATS in its last 41 games vs. good teams with a winning percentage of better than 75% on the season. The Cardinals are 9-2 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons. Arizona is 6-0 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in two of its last three games over the last three seasons. Plays on road underdogs or pick (ARIZONA) – after two consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better are 71-35 (67%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take the Cardinals Sunday.

20* Patriots/Broncos AFC Championship ANNIHILATOR on Denver +3

This season just has a special feeling about it for the Broncos. Peyton Manning wants to go out a Super Bowl champ the same way that John Elway did before him, and I wouldn’t be surprised one bit if that happens. The Broncos won their final two regular season games to clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC, yet they continue to get no respect from oddsmakers as 3-point home underdogs here.

Manning returned against the Chargers in Week 17 and led four scoring drives in five possessions in the second half after replacing Brock Osweiler. He then played a much better game than his final numbers showed against the Steelers in a 23-16 win in the Divisional Round. He went 21 of 37 for 222 yards without a touchdown or an interception.  The Broncos uncharacteristically dropped a whopping seven passes from Manning, yet they still found a way to win.

The reason was the No. 1 ranked defense in the NFL this season came up big once again. They held the high-powered Steelers to just 16 points for the game. The Broncos ranked 1st in total defense (283.1 yards/game), 1st in passing defense (199.6 yards/game), and 3rd in rushing defense (83.6 yards/game) during the regular season. This stop unit is the reason they are a serious contender to win the Super Bowl.

New England has no business being favored with the way it has closed out the season. It went 0-2 in its final two games in Weeks 16 and 17. It lost in overtime to the Jets in a game that was not as close as the final score showed considering the Jets outgained the Patriots by 144 yards. New England also lost 10-20 at Miami in the finale with home-field advantage in the AFC on the line. That game also wasn’t as close as the final score as the Dolphins outgained the Patriots by 242 total yards.

Against the Chiefs, the Patriots were outgained for a third straight game by 38 yards this time. They have now been outgained by an average of 143.3 yards per game in their last three contests. Their defense gave up 378 total yards to a very vanilla Chiefs’ offense. The Patriots suffered two key defensive injuries in that win over the Chiefs, too. Linebacker Jamie Collins had to leave the game with a back injury and is questionable to play this week. Fellow linebacker Jerod Mayo left with a shoulder injury and is questionable this week as well. If both or either can’t go, it would be a huge blow to the Patriots.

Perhaps the biggest reason I like the Broncos as 3-point home underdogs this week is the fact that the home team has dominated this series. Indeed, the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings since 2012. That includes a 30-24 (OT) win at home for the Broncos in their first meeting this season on November 29. That game wasn’t as close as the final score indicated as the Broncos outgained the Patriots 433-301 for the game, or by 132 total yards. The Patriots are 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Denver.  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Seattle Seahawks +3

Seattle's performance against the Vikings can pretty much be thrown out the window.  That game was played at freezing temperatures of below zero, and the Seahawks couldn't do anything they wanted to like they normally would.  Russell Wilson's passes kept getting caught up in the wind, so instead of hitting wide open receivers deep down the field for touchdowns, those passes kept falling incomplete.

Look for Wilson to get back to playing at an MVP level this week in much more ideal conditions in Carolina with temperatures expected to be in the 50's with very little wind.  Wilson has now thrown 25 touchdowns against only two interceptions in his last eight games overall.  This is an offense that ranked 4th in the NFL at 378.6 yards per game during the regular season, and one that will hit its stride again this week.

The Seattle defense certainly played well enough against the Vikings to deserve the win last week.  They limited the Vikings to just 183 total yards.  After all, this is a Seattle defense that ranked 2nd in the NFL during the regular season in giving up just 291.8 yards per game, and 1st in scoring defense, currently giving up 16.8 points per game.

Want a stat that's going to blow your mind with this Seattle defense? How about the fact that the Seahawks have only allowed one offensive touchdown in their last six road games combined.  They have allowed 3, 12, 7, 6, 6, and 9 points in their last six road games for an average of only 7.2 points per game.  That's unheard of, and it's also something that I love knowing when backing the Seahawks this week.

There's no question that the Panthers had a great season, and I certainly underestimated them many times throughout the year.  But I also made my fair share betting against them, especially down the stretch when they went 2-3 ATS in their final five games.  I don't think this team is anywhere near as good as their record.  They played in the weak NFC South division, and they got to face both the AFC South and NFC East divisions, which are the two worst in the league.  The only playoff teams they had to face this year were the Texans, Seahawks, Packers and Redskins.

Sure, the Panthers beat the Seahawks earlier this season 27-23 on the road as 7-point underdogs.  But that win was very fluky as the Seahawks couldn't hold on to a 23-14 lead in the 4th quarter.  They allowed two touchdowns over the final 3:55 to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.  There's no question that the Seahawks are going to be playing with revenge in mind now, which makes them even more dangerous.

The Seahawks clearly have the type of defense that can slow down MVP candidate Cam Newton and company.  That's precisely what they have done in the previous five meetings with the Panthers before this season.  Indeed, the Seahawks are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their previous five meetings with the Panthers.  They held Carolina to 17, 9, 7, 12 and 14 points in the five wins, or an average of 11.8 points per game.

Wilson is also primed for a big day against a Carolina secondary that has turned into a weakness.  The Panthers are without two of their top cornerbacks in Charles Tillman and Bene Benwikere.  They were in such dire straights that they had to sign washed-up CB Cortland Finnegan off his couch.  Both Finnegan and safety Kurt Coleman are massive liabilities in coverage, so look for Wilson to target them early and often, and to find a ton of success in doing so.

Seattle is 8-1 ATS after having won four of its last five games over the last two seasons.  Carolina is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games vs. teams who commit one or fewer turnovers per game in the second half of the season.  Plays on road underdogs or pick (SEATTLE) - good offensive team - scoring 24 or more points/game, after a win by 3 or less points are 68-35 (66%) ATS since 1983.  The Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last five playoff games.  Bet the Seahawks Sunday.

20* Packers/Cardinals NFC No-Brainer on Green Bay +7

After falling behind 11-0 to the Redskins, the Packers became a completely different team. They went to the hurry-up on offense, and it worked to perfection as they outscored the Redskins 35-7 the rest of the way for a 35-18 victory. Look for them to continue to go to the hurry-up this week and to find success against the Cardinals with it, too.

Obviously, the Packers have to do something different after they were throttled 38-8 by the Cardinals three weeks ago. Nothing went right for them in that game as they gave up two non-offensive touchdowns with the Cardinals returning two fumbles for scores. While the Cardinals will be content to not change much of the game plan since they rolled in the first meeting, the Packers will be the ones making adjustments, which makes them dangerous.

We saw the same thing last week in the Seahawks/Vikings game. Seattle didn’t feel like it needed to change much after beating the Vikings 38-7 earlier this year. The Vikings made some changes and got healthy, which was the biggest thing for them. And they should have won that game, losing 10-9 only after Blair Walsh missed a last-second field goal.

There’s no question that we are getting great value here with the Packers as 7-point underdogs. That’s especially the case when you compare this line to the line in the first meeting. The Cardinals opened as only 4.5-point home favorites, but now they’ve opened as 7-point home favorites, and that basically only has to do with the first result. But it’s extremely difficult to beat a team of Green Bay’s caliber twice in three weeks, let alone by more than a touchdown. The Packers will have serious revenge in mind, which makes them dangerous.

The offensive line play was the reason for the Packers’ poor performance against the Cardinals three weeks ago. But they shored up that problem last week against the Redskins and played much better. The hurry-up also helped and kept the Redskins’ defensive off-balance, and their pass rush at bay. It will work in the same way this week as the Cardinals won’t be able to make defensive calls like they normally would when opposing offenses huddle up. That means there will be less blitzing, and a much more basic defense for the Cardinals in the rematch.

Outside of that blowout win over the Packers, the Cardinals haven’t been all that good at home here of late. They have only won one of their last six home games by more than 8 points. They lost 6-36 to Seattle, beat Green Bay 38-8, beat Minnesota 23-20, beat Cincinnati 34-31, beat Baltimore 26-18, and lost to St. Louis 22-24 in their last six home games. The Cardinals are 4-2 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six home games while only outscoring the opposition by an average of 2.0 points per game.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (ARIZONA) – average rushing team (3.5 to 4.5 YPR) against a team with a poor rushing defense (more than 4.5 YPR), after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game are 66-29 (69.5%) ATS since 1983. The Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last six playoff road games, and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 playoff games overall. The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Packers Saturday.

15* Chiefs/Patriots AFC Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 42.5

This line for this game at -5 looks pretty spot on to me, but if anything I'd lean towards taking the Chiefs.  Instead, I think the UNDER 42.5 is the best play for this game.  Both defenses are top-notch and will make life difficult on the opposing offenses.  As a result, I think this game stays below the 42.5-point total.

The Chiefs have been stupid-good defensively during their 11-game winning streak.  In fact, they have allowed 22 or fewer points in 13 consecutive games now after shutting out the Texans 30-0.  They have allowed an average of just 11.5 points per game over their 11-game winning streak.  They allowed just 205 total yards to Oakland and 226 total yards to Houston in their last two contests.

The Patriots have also been a tremendous defensive team this season.  They give up only 19.7 points per game while ranking 9th in the NFL in total defense at 339.4 yards per game.  Their numbers are even better at home as they allow 17.7 points per game and 312 yards per game inside Gillette Stadium this season.

Kansas City has been winning in spite of its offense.  It ranks just 27th in the league in total offense at 331.2 yards per game on the season.  This offense suffered a big blow when star receiver Jeremy Maclin suffered a high ankle sprain against Houston last week.  He was seen crying while being carted off the field in the 3rd quarter, and even though he's only listed as questionable, I have a hard time believing that he'll be effective at all even if he plays.  Maclin is the one guy the Chiefs couldn't afford to lose on offense because he's Alex Smith's security blanket.

The Patriots have been rather pedestrian down the stretch offensively.  They managed just 313 total yards against Houston, 284 total yards against the Jets, and 196 total yards against the Dolphins in their last three games.  They are expected to get Julian Edelman back, but who knows how effective he'll be.  The problem is the offensive line, which has been decimated by injuries.  Plus, injuries to Dion Lewis and LeGarrette Blount have forced the Patriots to bring Steven Jackson back out of retirement, which just shows how dire they are in the backfield.

The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  Three of the last four meetings in this series have seen 42 or fewer combined points.  They've combined for 55, 37, 27 and 42 points.  The Chiefs have held the Patriots in check, limiting them to an average of 20.3 points and 328.5 total yards per game in the last four meetings.  That 55-point effort was fluky as the teams combined for 21 points in the fourth quarter in garbage time, including an INT return for a TD by the Chiefs.  It was a 41-14 game, so the intensity level was not really there in the second half.  This game should be close throughout, so the intensity level will be high for both defenses.

New England is 8-0 to the UNDER off two consecutive road losses since 1992.  Kansas City is 13-3 to the UNDER off six or more consecutive wins since 1992.  The Chiefs are 9-2 to the UNDER vs. good passing teams who average 235 or more passing yards per game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 23-11-2 in Chiefs last 36 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Alabama/Clemson National Championship No-Brainer on Clemson +7

Deshaun Watson is exactly the type of quarterback that Alabama has struggled against through the years. He can beat you with his arms and his legs, and I look for him to make enough plays to keep the Tigers in this game for four quarters. The Tigers weren’t getting any respect as underdogs against Oklahoma when they dominated in a 37-17 victory, and they’re certainly not getting respect as touchdown dogs here in the title game.

Watson is completing 68.2 percent of his passes for 3,704 yards with 31 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, while also rushing for 1,032 yards and 12 scores. He probably feels like he got snubbed out of the Heisman Trophy, which went to Alabama’s Derrick Henry. So not only will the Tigers be motivated as underdogs, they’ll also get an inspired effort from Watson here as he looks to make a statement.

While the edge on defense goes to the Crimson Tide in this one, there’s no denying that the edge on offense clearly belongs to the Tigers. They are putting up 38.4 points and 511.7 yards per game against teams that only give up 25.3 points and 379 yards per game. Alabama averages 34.4 points and 423.8 yards per game against teams that give up 24.9 points and 365 yards per game.

But it’s not like the Tigers are slouches on defense. They are allowing 20.0 points and 302.0 yards per game against teams that average 29.5 points and 398 yards per game. They also give up just 4.7 per play against teams that average 6.0 per play. Stopping Henry and Alabama's rushing attack will be key for the Tigers, and they are equipped to do it. They give up just 125 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry against teams that average 190 yards per game and 4.8 per carry.

Alabama’s defense has put up great numbers this season, but it has faced some awful offenses here down the stretch. Its last four games have come against Michigan State, Florida, Auburn and Charleston Southern. The Crimson Tide will be taking a big step up in competition here as Clemson has one of the best offenses in the land. In fact, this will be the best offense that Alabama has seen all season. Ole Miss was the next-best offense it has faced, and it gave up 43 points in a loss to the Rebels.

Clemson is 30-14 ATS in its last 44 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. The Crimson Tide are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games. The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last four bowl games. Clemson is 6-0 ATS in its last six neutral site games.  Bet Clemson Monday.

15* Packers/Redskins NFC No-Doubt Rout on Green Bay -1

I just simply trust the Green Bay Packers more than the Washington Redskins in a big game like this. They have all kinds of playoff experience, while the Redskins haven’t made the postseason since Robert Griffin III’s rookie season. The Redskins are 0-3 in their last three playoff games and haven’t won a playoff game since 2005. I don’t believe that streak is going to end this weekend.

In fact, I believe the Redskins are the worst of the 12 teams in the playoffs. They won a very weak NFC East division to get here, and the numbers support my claim. The Redskins rank 23rd in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 26.8 yards per game. That is easily the worst ranking in this all-important stat of all 12 playoff teams.

Yes, the Redskins won each of their final four games this season, but they were fortunate to do so. They were outgained in four of their final five games. Plus, those five games came against the Cowboys (twice), Eagles, Bills and Bears. None of those five teams made the playoffs this year.

Washington also benefited from such an easy schedule this season. Indeed, 14 of its 16 games were against non-playoff teams. It was crushed in its two games against playoff teams, losing 16-44 at Carolina and 10-27 at New England. Conversely, Green Bay played seven games against playoff teams this season. It went 3-4 against them, but it certainly played a tougher schedule to get here, and that’s why its 10-6 record is much more impressive than Washington’s 9-7 mark.

The Redskins have been extremely fortunate this season in creating turnovers by their defense. In fact, they have recovered the most fumbles of any team in the league. Well, the Packers aren’t a team that turns the ball over often. They have committed only 17 turnovers in 16 games this season, so they aren’t going to beat themselves.

The Packers should have no problem getting their offense going this week against a Washington defense that ranks 28th in allowing 380.6 yards per game. This is a defense that gives up a ridiculous 6.3 yards per play against opponents that only average 5.7 per play. The Packers are clearly superior on that side of the ball as they give up 346.7 yards per game this season. I also like the fact that the Packers are getting healthy along the offensive line and should protect Aaron Rodgers much better this week.

The Packers have owned the Redskins, going 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Their only loss came in overtime on the road back in 2010. The Packers have outscored the Redskins 163-73 in those six meetings, or by an average of 15.0 points per game. If that’s not domination, then I don’t know what is. Look for it to continue in this NFC Wild Card showdown Sunday.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GREEN BAY) – after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games, in conference games are 38-13 (74.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Green Bay is 9-2 ATS off a division game over the last two seasons. Washington is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games following an ATS win. Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last five playoff road games.  Roll with the Packers Sunday.

20* Seahawks/Vikings NFC Wild Card No-Brainer on Seattle -4.5

The Seattle Seahawks have been playing like the best team in the NFL here down the stretch. They have gone 6-1 in their last seven games overall with all six victories coming by 9 points or more. Their only loss came via fluke at home to the Rams as they outgained St. Louis by 107 yards in that game.

In fact, they have outgained six of their last seven opponents by at least 107 yards, including 122 against Arizona, 193 against Cleveland, 122 against Baltimore, 308 against Minnesota and 202 against San Francisco. The Seahawks now rank 1st in the NFL in the all-important yardage differential stat, outgaining teams by an average of 86.8 yards per game on the season.

To compare, the Minnesota Vikings rank just 21st in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by 23.0 yards per game. Only the Redskins have been worse among playoff teams in that department. As a result, I believe the Vikings are one of the most overrated teams in the playoffs. They are awful on offense and just above-average on defense. They were fortunate to beat the Packers in the finale as they were outgained 242-350, or by 108 total yards.

The Vikings rank just 29th in the NFL in total offense at 321.2 yards per game. Adrian Peterson is nursing a back injury that limited him to 67 yards on 19 carries against the Packers.  To compare, the Seahawks rank 4th in total offense at 378.6 yards per game, and Russell Wilson has been playing at an MVP level for weeks. He has a ridiculous 24-to-1 TD/INT ratio over his last seven games. He has also rushed for 553 yards and a score on the season.

I just don’t believe the Vikings are going to be able to put up enough points to keep up with Wilson and the Seahawks. That’s because Seattle is just as good on the other side of the football. It ranks 2nd in the NFL in total defense at 291.8 yards per game. It has limited its last five opponents to 6, 23, 13, 6 and 7 points, respectively. That's an average of 11.0 points per game.  This is back to being the dominant defense that we’ve become accustomed to in recent years.

The Seahawks simply own the Vikings. They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with wins by 31, 21 and 10 points, respectively. That includes the 38-7 beat down the Seahawks put on the Vikings on the road back on December 6. This was arguably the most dominant performance of one team over another this entire season. The Seahawks outgained the Vikings 433-125 for the game, or by a ridiculous 308 total yards.

Seattle is 8-0 ATS after having won four out of its last five games over the last two seasons. The Seahawks are 9-1 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive unders over the last three seasons. Seattle is 32-12 ATS in its last 44 versus good rushing teams who average 130 or more rushing yards per game in the second half of the season. Plays on favorites after beating the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Seahawks Sunday.

20* Steelers/Bengals AFC Wild Card ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh -2.5

It’s no surprise that all four Wild Card teams are actually favored despite playing on the road. That’s because the Wild Card teams are simply better than the division winners, and that is the case in this game. I have no doubt that the Steelers are the better team here, and I trust them to go on the road with all of their playoff experience and knock off the Bengals by at least a field goal to cover this 2.5-point spread.

After all, the Steelers have owned the Bengals in recent meetings. They are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Bengals. Their only loss came 16-10 back on November 1 of this season, which was the first game back from injury for Ben Roethlisberger. He was clearly rusty as he gave the game away by throwing three interceptions. But the Steelers still should have won that game as they outgained the Bengals 356-296.  The would bounce back with a 33-20 win at Cincinnati on the road on December 13 only after the Bengals scored a garbage TD in the closing seconds.

Pittsburgh has one of the best offenses in the NFL. It ranks 3rd in the league in total offense at 395.4 yards per game, including 3rd in passing offense at 287.7 yards per game. Both numbers would have been even better had Roethlisberger not missed a four full games and parts of two others due to injury. They are putting up 26.4 points per game and only giving up 19.9 points per game on the season.

The Bengals have not played very well since Andy Dalton went out with an injury. Yes, they’ve gone 2-1 in their three games without him to close out the season, but they were very fortunate they didn’t go 0-3. They were outgained by 76 yards in their 24-14 win at San Francisco, by 96 yards in their 17-20 loss at Denver, and by 49 yards in their 24-16 home win over Baltimore. The Bengals are only averaging 21.7 points, 276.0 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play in their last three games without Dalton, who isn’t expected to be ready to play Saturday.  This offense can't keep up with the Steelers in its current state.

Cincinnati has a playoff curse that it cannot seem to shake. It is 0-6 in its last six playoff games with its last win coming all the way back in 1990. Sure, the Bengals want to put an end to this drought, but every year the pressure gets bigger, and they just don’t handle it well. The offense has been the culprit as the Bengals have scored 10, 10, 13, 10, 14 and 17 points in the six losses. With or without Dalton, I look for this offense to struggle mightily again.

The Bengals have also had plenty of leaks defensively this season. While they are stout against the run, they are extremely vulnerable against the pass, which plays right into the Steelers’ hands. They give up 64.2 percent completions to opposing quarterbacks. They have allowed 301, 251, 270, 263, 277 and 282 passing yards in six of their last seven games coming in. Roethlisberger should have a field day Saturday.

Pittsburgh is 9-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The Steelers are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 games vs. teams who average 7.5 or more passing yards per attempt. The Bengals are 7-18 ATS in their last 25 home games vs. excellent passing teams who complete 64 percent or more of their passes. The Steelers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games in January. The Bengals are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games in January, including 0-6 ATS in their last six playoff games.  Bet the Steelers Saturday.

15* Vikings/Packers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 46

I wish I would have got this UNDER when it opened at 48, but I still like it a lot at 46.  It has been bet down for good reason.  This game between the Vikings and Packers will be played at a high intensity level with first place on the line in the NFC North.  I believe that favors the defenses.

The oddsmakers made a mistake in setting this total too high because the Vikings scored 49 points last week against an awful Giants defense, while the Packers gave up 38 to Arizona.  But the Vikings got a defensive touchdown and only had 368 yards of offense, so there's no way they should have scored 49.  The Packers did give up 381 yards to the Cardinals, but they held them 39 yards below their season average.  The Cardinals also had two defensive touchdowns to pad their number.  So the Packers' defense only essentially gave up 24 points.

One thing that is certain heading into this game is that both offenses are horrible.  The Vikings rank 26th in the NFL in total offense at 326.5 yards per game.  The Packers are 24th at 333.5 yards per game.  In their last two games, the Packers were held to just 293 total yards against the Raiders and 178 total yards against the Cardinals.

The biggest reason for their struggles on offense is an O-Line that is banged up right now as both tackles in Bryan Bulaga and David Bakhtiari are likely to miss this game.  Aaron Rodgers was under duress all game long against the Cardinals, and he finished just 16-of-29 for 77 yards in the loss.

Things won't get any easier for Rodgers against a Minnesota defense that is dominant and just returned three key players in the middle of its defense in S Harrison Smith, LB Anthony Barr and DT Linval Joseph.  The Vikings are only yielding 19.3 points per game this season while ranking 14th in total defense at 343.8 yards per game.

The strength of the Packers this season, believe it or not, has been their defense.  They are only giving up 20.2 points per game this season, including 16.7 per game at home.  They had held six straight opponents to 23 points or fewer and an average of 16.3 points per game prior to giving up 38 to the Cardinals.  Again, only 24 of those were on the defense.

The Packers beat the Vikings 30-13 on the road in their first meeting this season for 43 combined points.  That 30 points was pretty fluky as well as the Packers did it on only 320 yards of total offense.  The Vikings managed just 13 points and 342 total yards in that game.  I believe a similar combined point total of 43 or less is likely in the rematch, especially in the cold weather at Lambeau Field.

Minnesota is 6-0 to the UNDER off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  Green Bay is 9-2 UNDER vs. teams who complete 61% or more of their passes this season.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Vikings last nine vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 11-3 in all Vikings road games over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Vikings last 10 vs. NFC North opponents.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Packers last five home games.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Bucs/Panthers UNDER 47

I'm taking the UNDER in this game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers.  This is a division game, which adds intensity.  It's also an important game for the Panthers as they wants to secure home-field advantage in the NFC.  With the pressure now mounting after a loss to the Falcons last week, I look for a conservative game plan from these Panthers just to try and get a win any way they can.

But what really makes me love this UNDER is the fact that both teams have great defenses.  The Panthers rank 4th in the NFL in total defense, giving up 318.7 yards per game and 5.1 per play against teams that average 358 yards per game and 5.7 per play.  The Buccaneers are 9th in total defense, allowing 338.7 yards per game and 5.3 per play against teams that average 353 yards per game and 5.6 per play.

There are a couple reasons the oddsmakers have set this total too high, which has provided value with the UNDER.  The first is that the Panthers have uncharacteristically scored a lot of points lately, but make no mistake, this is no offensive juggernaut.  The Panthers only average 5.7 yards per play against teams that give up 5.8 yards per play.  They have thrived against poor defenses like the Giants, Saints and Falcons in recent weeks.

The second reason the books have set this number higher than it should be is because the Panthers won the first meeting 37-23 over the Bucs for 60 combined points.  But the Panthers managed 37 points despite gaining just 244 total yards.  That's nearly impossible.  They took advantage of five Buccaneers' turnovers, including two that were returned for touchdowns.  Take away those two, and this game would have only seen 46 combined points.

That high-scoring affair between these teams was a rarity in this rivalry.  Indeed, the Falcons and Panthers have combined for 44 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation (not counting OT) in six of their last seven meetings.  They had combined for 36, 34, 33, 44, 42 and 26 points in their six previous meetings.  That's an average of just 35.8 combined points per game, which is more than 11 points less than this 47-point total.

The Panthers managed just 13 points and 268 total yards against the Falcons last week as they are dealing with a bunch of injuries on offense right now, including a foot injury to RB Jonathan Stewart that will likely keep him out again.  Backup RB Fozzy Whittaker is also expected to miss this game.

Tampa Bay is 11-1 to the UNDER after having lost four or five of its last six games over the last two seasons.  The Bucs are 6-0 UNDER vs. good passing teams that average 7 or more yards per attempt in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Bucs last eight games vs. NFC South opponents.  The UNDER is 12-4 in Panthers last 16 vs. NFC South foes.  The UNDER is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings in Carolina.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Buccaneers +11

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the most underrated team in the NFL heading into Week 17.  They are catching way too many points against the Carolina Panthers, who have been overvalued here down the stretch due to their 14-1 record.  They are once again overvalued here as double-digit favorites over the Bucs.

The reason I say the Bucs are underrated is because they rank 7th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 36.5 points per game.  Only the Cardinals, Seahawks, Broncos, Jets, Patriots and Panthers (6th, +48.3 YPG) have been better, so they are in some elite company with this yardage differential stat.

The Buccaneers are also an elite team from a yards per play standpoint, which is one of the most important stats in the NFL.  They average 6.1 yards per play on offense and only give up 5.3 per play on defense, outgaining teams by 0.8 yards per play.  The Panthers are good but not as good in this department.  They average 5.7 yards per play on offense and give up 5.1 per play on defense.  They outgain teams by 0.6 yards per play.

If the Bucs don't turn the ball over, they can beat anyone, and they will certainly be gunning for their rivals in the Panthers Sunday.  They want nothing more than to knock the Panthers from earning home-field advantage in the NFC, so they'll certainly be showing up for this one.

That's especially the case since they want revenge from a 23-37 home loss to the Panthers in their first meeting this year.  That final score couldn't have been any more misleading.  The Bucs outgained the Panthers 411-244 for the game, or by 167 total yards.  But they committed five turnovers, including two that were returned for touchdowns, which proved to be the difference.  It's going to take more turnovers from the Bucs for the Panthers to win this game by double-digits, and you can never bank on turnovers when betting games.

Back to my point about the Panthers being overvalued, they are just 1-3 ATS in their last four games.  They won by 3 at New Orleans as 5.5-point favorites on a last-minute TD, they won by 3 at the Giants as 5-point favorites on a last-second FG, and they lost to to the Falcons by 7 on the road last week despite being 7-point favorites.

Home-field advantage has meant very little in this series in recent meetings.  The road team is 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Tampa Bay is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. teams who outscore opponents by 10-plus points per game in the second half of the season.  Plays against home favorites of 10.5 or more points (CAROLINA) - versus division opponents, off an upset loss as a road favorite are 38-14 (73.1%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Buccaneers Sunday.

15* WVU/Arizona State Cactus Bowl BAILOUT on Arizona State +1

For starters, this will be a home game for the Arizona State Sun Devils.  Indeed, the Cactus Bowl will be played at Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe.  Not only do I believe the Sun Devils will have a massive home-field advantage as a result, I also believe they are the better team anyway, and they should not be underdogs.

The Sun Devils are a much better team than their 6-6 record would indicate, but that record has them undervalued heading into the bowl season.  Big things were expected of this team as they returned 16 starters this year and were expected to compete for a Pac-12 South title.

But the Sun Devils had some poor fortune in close games this year.  They lost by 2 at California and by 6 in overtime at home to Oregon despite outgaining the Ducks by 241 yards in a complete fluke loss.  They did go on the road and beat UCLA 38-23 to flash their potential, and they played much better at home this season than on the road.  The beat Arizona (52-37), Washington (27-17) and Colorado (48-23) at home within the Pac-12 with their only losses coming to USC and Oregon.

While Arizona State has four wins against bowl teams (New Mexico, UCLA, Washington, Arizona) this year, West Virginia only has two wins (Georgia Southern, Texas Tech) against bowl teams.  And one of those was a lackluster 31-26 home win over Texas Tech.

The Mountaineers lost to all of the best teams they played this season.  None of them were close, either.  They lost by 20 to Oklahoma, by 7 to Oklahoma State, by 24 to Baylor and by 30 to TCU.  They also lost their season finale 23-24 to Kansas State.  I just believe this team is getting too much respect from oddsdmakers despite having not done anything this season.

This is a great matchup for the Sun Devils, too.  Their strength defensively is stopping the run, while WVU's strength offensively is running the ball.  WVU averages 235 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry.  But the Sun Devils only give up 125 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry against teams who average 193 yards per game and 4.6 per carry.  They will be up to the task of stopping the run here.

West Virginia is 0-9 ATS as a neutral field favorite since 1992.  It is losing in these spots by 6.1 points per game despite being the favorite in all nine.  The Mountaineers are 0-7 ATS as a neutral field favorite of 7 points or less since 1992.  They are losing in this spot by 12.5 points per game.

WVU is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games following a loss to a conference opponent.  The Mountaineers are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games vs. good offensive teams that score 34 or more points per game.  ASU is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games off a road cover where it lost straight up as an underdog.  Off that 2-point loss at Cal, the Sun Devils will be motivated to finish the season with a winning record instead of dropping to 6-7.  Take Arizona State Saturday.

25* College Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Penn State +6.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions head into the bowl season undervalued because they have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  Meanwhile, the Georgia Bulldogs come into the bowl season overvalued after going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  Those finishes to the regular season have forced oddsmakers to set this line higher than it should be because they know that the betting public wants nothing to do with Penn State right now.

The 16-55 loss to Michigan State certainly leaves an eye sore.  But a closer look at that game shows that it wasn't nearly as big of a blowout as the final score showed.  The Nittany Lions gave away that game by committing four turnovers, two of which were returned for touchdowns.  They were only outgained by the Spartans 418-436 for the game, or by 18 total yards.  The difference was clearly the turnovers.  But the Nittany Lions had only committed 13 turnovers in 11 games prior to that contest, so it was an aberration, and don't expect it to become a pattern now.

That finish to the season will certainly have the Nittany Lions extra motivated coming into this bowl game.  They want to right the ship and end the season on a winning note, and you can bet that head coach James Franklin will have his players ready to go on January 2nd as a result.  Franklin owns a 3-0 career record in bowl games, so he knows how to get his players prepared the right way.  While you can't question the motivation of the Nittany Lions, you can certainly question the motivation of the Bulldogs.

Indeed, Georgia will have an interim head coach for this game after Mark Richt was fired.  Richt has left the program to go coach at his alma mater in Miami.  The Bulldogs hired former Alabama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart.  Not only will Georgia be without Richt, it will also be without defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt, who took over Smart's previous role as the defensive coordinator at Alabama.  Plus, offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer won't coach in the bowl game either, leaving Georgia with a patchwork staff leading up to the game.

Receivers coach Bryan McClendon will take over as the interim coach, and I just cannot see this going well for the Bulldogs.  Few bowl teams undergo this many changes to their staff.  Losing your head coach, offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator is almost impossible to overcome.  You can see why this is my favorite play of the bowl season, ranked as my 25* College Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR!

I was not impressed with the way the Bulldogs closed out the season even though they won four straight.  Their wins came against Kentucky, Auburn, Georgia Southern and Georgia Tech.  They only beat Auburn by 7, needed overtime to beat Georgia Southern at home, and only beat Georgia Tech by 6.  While they may find a way to win this game, too, asking them to do so by a touchdown or more to beat us is asking too much.

The Bulldogs just don't have the firepower on offense to put away the Nittany Lions.  They have been held to an average of just 14.8 points per game at the end of regulation in their last six games overall.  They were held to 3 by Florida, 9 by Missouri, 13 by Georgia Tech and 17 by Georgia Southern in four of those games.  It's not going to get any easier for this Georgia offense against a Penn State defense that is one of the best units in the country.

The Nittany Lions only allow 21.7 points, 325 yards per game and 4.8 per play against teams that average 28.3 points, 386 yards per game and 5.5 per play.  I know the Penn State offense has struggled like Georgia, but the extra bowl practice will help the offensive line work on its problems.  Plus, QB Christian Hackenburg wants one big performance here to improve his draft stock after it plummeted throughout the regular season.

Penn State also falls into a proven bowl system that tells us to bet on teams entering the bowl season on an extended losing streak.  Since 1984, teams entering bowls on at least a three-game losing streak are 27-15 ATS, including 16-8 ATS if their opponent is coming off a straight up win.  The Nittany Lions are the only team that qualifies this year.  These teams on 3-game skids have been consistently undervalued.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 37-13 (74%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Penn State Saturday.

20* Ole Miss/Oklahoma State Sugar Bowl BAILOUT on Ole Miss -7

The Oklahoma State Cowboys might be the biggest frauds in all of college football.  Yes, they had a chance to win the Big 12 in the season finale, but their true colors showed against the best teams they played this season.  Let's also not forget that this team struggled to beat suspect competition with an 11-point win over Central Michigan, a 3-point win over Texas, a 2-point win over Kansas State and a 4-point win over Iowa State.

But the most telling story about the Cowboys is their performance against the top three teams in the Big 12 in TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma.  They gave up 29 points and 663 yards to TCU, 45 points and 700 yards to Baylor, and 58 points and 524 yards to Oklahoma.  So, against those three teams, they allowed averages of 44.0 points and 629.0 yards per game.

Conversely, Ole Miss is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  It was the only team to beat Alabama this season, and it even did so in Tuscaloosa.  The Rebels had some mental lapses in a few losses this season to Memphis, Florida and Arkansas, but this is easily the second-best team in the SEC.  It took a fluke fourth-and-25 lateral play in overtime by Arkansas to beat the Rebels, and had they won that game, the Rebels would be your 2015 SEC champs.

Oklahoma State's suspect defense now has to go up against what I believe to be the best offense in the SEC.  The Rebels average 40.2 points, 515 yards per game and 7.0 per play against teams that give up 29.6 points, 402 yards per game and 5.8 per play.  They put up 43 points on Alabama, 52 on Arkansas, 38 on LSU and 38 on Mississippi State.  I would say that is getting it done against those four defenses.

Plus, it's not like the Rebels are slouches defensively.  They have a well above-average defense that gives up 22.8 points, 387 yards per game and 4.9 per play against teams that average 28.1 points, 406 yards per game and 5.9 per play.  They will be up against a good-but-not-great Oklahoma State offense that average 6.5 yards per play against teams that allow 5.9 per play.

Oklahoma State only beat only one ranked team this season (TCU), and it was outgained by 207 yards by the Horned Frogs.  Ole Miss beat four ranked teams at the time they played them in Alabama, LSU, Mississippi State and Texas A&M.  The return of future first-round pick Laremy Tunsil at left tackle late in the year gave the Rebels' offensive line a boost, and I look for this offense to shred Oklahoma State's suspect defense while putting up a big number in this one.

Ole Miss has done very well when oddsmakers are expecting a high-scoring game.  The Rebels are 6-0 ATS when the total is between 63.5 and 70 points over the last three seasons, winning these games by an average of 24.3 points per game.  The Rebels are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games with a total set of 63 or higher as well.  Oklahoma State is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 after having won 8 or more of its last 10 games.  The Rebels are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games.  Ole Miss is 24-8-1 ATS in its last 33 non-conference games.  Roll with Ole Miss Friday.

20* Iowa/Stanford Rose Bowl No-Brainer on Iowa +7

Iowa didn't get much respect all season, and that certainly hasn't changed here as the oddsmakers have pegged them as 7-point underdogs to the Stanford Cardinal.  They were 27 seconds away from a 13-0 season and a trip to the four-team playoff, but they still aren't getting any credit.  Look for the Hawkeyes to be playing with a chip on their shoulder in this game against Stanford as a result.

The Hawkeyes have never won the Rose Bowl, so they certainly won't be lacking any motivation anyways.  Fans are so excited that they are forking over some large cash to make the trip to Pasadena, and there will be more black and gold there than Cardinal fans as a result.  The Hawkeyes are expected to get at least 60,000 fans to Pasadena for their first Rose Bowl in 25 years.

Stanford lost 6-16 at Northwestern, while Iowa beat Northwestern 40-10 on the road.  That right there gives these teams a common opponent that lets you know that the Hawkeyes should not only be able to hang with the Cardinal, but to pull off the upset, too.  The Big Ten in general just never gets much respect from anyone outside of Ohio State.  But they have been a great bet in bowl games in recent years because of this false public perception of them.

This is a great matchup for the Hawkeyes.  They won't be overmatched athletically like they would be if, say, USC was the opponent in the Rose Bowl.  Both the Hawkeyes and Cardinal are similar teams who run the ball and stop the run, it's just that I believe the Hawkeyes do it better.

Iowa rushed for 192 yards per game while Stanford rushed for 225 per game.  So, the key is going to be which teams stops the run better.  The Hawkeyes only allow 115 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry, while the Cardinal give up 146 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry.  Overall, the Hawkeys give up 18.5 points, 334 yards per game and 4.8 per play, while the Cardinal give up 23.1 points, 375 yards per game and 5.7 per play.

The Hawkeyes are a tough team to blow out because they play such sound football.  They run the ball, stop the run, and take care of the football, and CJ Beathard is a better quarterback than he gets credit for.  You know when you bet the Hawkeyes that they aren't going to beat themselves.  They have only committed 14 turnovers in 13 games this season.  Conversely, they have forced 26 turnovers this year for a +12 differential.  CJ Bethard has thrown 15 touchdown passes against four interceptions in 13 games this year, while also rushing for 270 yards and six scores.

Iowa got some good news prior to the Rose Bowl with a healthy return of running back Jordan Canzeri, who was knocked out of the 13-16 loss to Michigan State early with an ankle injury.  While the Hawkeyes have two other capable backs in LeShun Daniels (609 yards, 8 TD) and Akrum Wadley (463 yards, 6.3 per carry, 7 TD), Canzeri (976 yards, 5.5/carry, 12 TD) is their most complete back.  Whoever is running the football should find plenty of success against a Stanford defense that allows 4.6 yards per carry.

Iowa is 8-1 ATS in road games after a game where it forced one or fewer turnovers over the last three seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games vs. teams who score 37 or more points per game.  Iowa is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games vs. teams who average 5.9 or more yards per play.  Kirk Ferentz is 33-11 ATS versus good rushing teams that average 200 or more rushing yards per game as the head coach at Iowa.  Take Iowa Friday.

20* Tennessee/Northwestern Outback Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee -8

We saw last year in the bowl game how Tennessee crushed Iowa 45-28 in a game that wasn't even that close.  It was yet another example of a Big Ten team being outmatched athletically by an SEC team.  The Volunteers used their team speed and did whatever they wanted to offensively against the Hawkeyes.  I look for this one to play out exactly the same way as Northwestern doesn't have the athletes to match up.

I was very high on Tennessee coming into the season because this was Butch Jones' most talented team yet, and a team that returned 18 starters.  The Volunteers didn't disappoint, because believe it or not, they nearly went 12-0 this year.  All four of their losses came by 7 points or less.  They just had some bad fortune in close games against some of the best teams in the country.

The Vols lost in double-overtime 24-31 to Oklahoma after blowing a 17-3 lead in the 4th quarter.  They lost 20-24 to Arkansas after blowing a 14-0 lead.  They lost 27-28 to Florida after blowing a 27-14 lead in the final five minutes.  And they lost 14-19 at Alabama after holding a 14-13 lead with under three minutes to play.  As you can see, they played two playoff teams in Oklahoma & Alabama right down to the wire, a solid Arkansas team, and SEC East champ Florida. They easily could have won all four of those games.

But instead of being down about their poor fortune in those close games, the Volunteers got pissed off and played their best football of the season down the stretch.  They went 5-0 in their last five games overall with a 31-point win over Kentucky, a 3-point win over South Carolina, a 24-point win over North Texas, an 11-point win at Missouri and a 25-point win over Vanderbilt.

Northwestern might be the most overrated team in the country with its No. 13 ranking.  Oddsmakers agree in listing the 23rd-ranked Vols as 8-point favorites here.  The Wildcats have been winning ugly all season.  That works against suspect Big Ten competition, but it does not work against good teams.  That was evident in the 38-0 loss at Michigan and the 40-10 home loss to Iowa.  But the Wildcats are in for their stiffest challenge yet here because of the disadvantage they'll be at athletically.

Both teams have solid defenses as the Vols give up 21.2 points per game while the Wildcats surrender 16.4 points per game.  The Wildcats would have had a hard time only giving up 21.2 points per game against the schedule that Tennessee played.  So even though the Wildcats have the better numbers defensively, I don't believe they are the better defensive team.

The one thing that can't be argued is that Tennessee is head and shoulders better than Northwestern on offense.  The Vols put up 34.3 points per game this season.  The Wildcats managed to win 10 games despite only averaging 20.7 points, 333 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play this year.  Once the Wildcats get behind in this one, they aren't going to have the firepower to catch up, just as Iowa didn't against Tennessee in last year's bowl game.

Tennessee just beat Vanderbilt 53-28 in the season finale.  That is a Vanderbilt team that plays a similar style to Northwestern, relying on great defense to make up for suspect offense.  Well, the Vols racked up 53 points and 527 total yards on that good Vanderbilt defense, and the Commodores couldn't do anything to catch up.  The Wildcats average 13 completions, 50.2% passing and 139 passing yards per game this season.  That's not going to get it done.

I'd much rather put my money on Joshua Dobbs and this Tennessee offense.  Dobbs has thrown for 2,125 yards and 15 touchdowns against five interceptions, while also rushing for 623 yards and nine scores.  Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara give the Vols a great 1-2 punch in the backfield.  Hurd has rushed for 1,155 yards and 11 touchdowns, while Kamara has chipped in 645 yards and six scores while averaging 6.7 per carry.  Bet Tennessee Friday.

15* Michigan State/Alabama Cotton Bowl No-Brainer on Alabama -9.5

The Alabama Crimson Tide are on a mission heading into the four-team playoff.  Nick Saban is on record of saying that this team is a lot more focused than last year's squad that lost to eventual national champion, Ohio State.  I believe the business-like approach they are taking will have them ready to make easy work of the overmatched Michigan State Spartans in the Cotton Bowl.

This is big brother vs. little brother.  Mark Dantonio worked under Nick Saban before getting the job at Michigan State.  Dantonio calls Saban his mentor.  And while he has had success running a similar program to Saban at Alabama, he just doesn't do it quite as well.  That was evident a few years back when Saban's Alabama team crushed Michigan State 49-7 in the 2011 Capital One Bowl.  Another beat down can be expected here.

Alabama is back to having the best defense in the country.  It gives up just 14.4 points, 258 yards per game and 4.1 per play against teams that average 28.7 points, 398 yards per game and 5.7 per play.  The going is going to be very tough for Connor Cook and a Michigan State offense that is only averaging 397 yards per game and 5.6 per play against teams that give up 389 yards per game and 5.6 per play.

This is just an average Michigan State offense, and Cook doesn't have enough playmakers outside to have any kind of success against this Alabama defense.  The Spartans don't run the football well as they average just 4.0 yards per carry against teams that give up 4.3 per carry.  That won't change against an Alabama defense that allows 74 rushing yards per game and 2.4 per carry against teams that average 173 yards per game and 4.4 per carry.  The Crimson Tide have the best front seven in the country.

Alabama's offense has been better than it gets credit for, too.  It is putting up 34.1 points, 423 yards per game and 5.8 per play against teams that only give up 25.2 points, 366 yards per game and 5.3 per play.  Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry just keeps getting better as the games get bigger.  He has rushed for 1,986 yards and 23 touchdowns while averaging 5.9 per carry.  He had 189 against Florida, 271 against Auburn, 204 against Mississippi State and 210 against LSU in his last four SEC games.

Michigan State was so fortunate to even make the four-team playoff.  It needed a miracle punt block TD on the final play of the game to beat Michigan, needed to control the ball for almost 40 minutes to beat Ohio State by 3, and needed a last-second TD to beat Iowa.  It also let poor teams like Rutgers (31-24) and Purdue (24-21) hang around.  Now the Spartans face by far their stiffest test of the season in the Cotton Bowl, and I believe they will be exposed.

Alabama's loss to Ole Miss early in the season may have been the best team that could happen to this team.  It got them refocused and back to playing the best football in the country.  The Crimson Tide won each of their final 10 games of the season with nine of those wins coming by double-digits.  They aren't about to let up now.

Alabama beat Wisconsin 35-17 on a neutral field in the season opener and outgained the Badgers 502-268, or by 234 total yards.  That win improved the Crimson Tide to 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. Big Ten opponents.  Alabama is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. teams with winning records.  The Spartans are 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games.  Take Alabama Thursday.

20* Clemson/Oklahoma Orange Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma -3.5

I believe Oklahoma is the most complete team in the playoff.  It has been dominant on both sides of the football, and it comes in playing better than anyone in the country.  The Sooners have gone 7-0 in their last seven games overall with six of those wins coming by double-digits.  What makes that most impressive is that the Sooners played their toughest Big 12 opponents down the stretch.

They went on the road and beat Baylor 44-34, topped TCU 30-29 at home in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed, and then went on the road and beat Oklahoma State 58-23 in its final three games of the season.  The Sooners have outgained seven straight opponents, including five of them by 146 or more total yards.

The offense is putting up 45.7 points per game, 543 yards per game and 7.0 per play against opposing defenses that allow 30.8 points, 440 yards per game and 5.8 per play.  Baker Mayfield deserved to be in the Heisman Trophy discussion as this guy just makes all the plays.  He is completing 68.6 percent of his passes for 3,389 yards with 35 touchdowns against five interceptions.  He has also rushed for 420 yards and seven scores as he's an underrated runner.

While the offensive improvement behind Mayfield has been a big reason for Oklahoma's success, it's the defense that doesn't get enough credit.  The Sooners had the best defense in the Big 12 this season.  They allowed just 20.7 points per game, 352 yards per game and 4.7 per play against opposing offenses that averaged 33.5 points, 455 yards per game and 6.0 per play.  This is one of the top defenses in the country.

Clemson played in the much weaker ACC this season.  It put up 38.5 points per game this year, which is less than Oklahoma.  It is right on par with Oklahoma in terms of scoring defense at 20.2 points per game, but not when you consider that opposing offenses faced only averaged 28.7 points per game.  The Tigers played a much easier slate of opposing offenses, and I believe their defense has been overrated all season because of it.

I was not impressed with the Tigers down the stretch.  They went 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They failed to cover the 12.5-point spread in a 10-point win over FSU, only beat Syracuse by 10 as a 30-point favorite, only beat Wake Forest by 20 as a 29-point favorite, and only beat South Carolina by 5 as a 20.5-point favorite.  They did cover the 6.5-point spread in an 8-point win over UNC in the ACC Championship Game, but if the refs had not called a phantom offsides penalty on the Tar Heels on an onside kick that they recovered, that result might have been different.

This Clemson defense is not as good as it gets credit for.  It faced plenty of mediocre offensive teams and gave up a lot of points this season.  Over their final six games, the Tigers allowed 41 points to NC State, 27 to Syracuse, 32 to South Carolina and 37 to UNC.  That's not a championship defense like the one Oklahoma has.  Plus, the Sooners played the toughest non-conference schedule of any of the bowl teams with games against fellow bowl teams in Akron, Tennessee & Tulsa.

Oklahoma wants revenge from the blowout bowl loss to Clemson last year, which is added motivation.  Oklahoma is 7-0 ATS in road games off a win by 21 or points points over the last two seasons.  Clemson is 8-20 ATS off five or more consecutive wins since 1992.  Plays on any team (OKLAHOMA) - an excellent offensive team (34 PPG or more) against a good defensive team (16-21 PPG) after 7+ games, after a win by 35 or more points are 39-11 (78%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Oklahoma Thursday.

15* Wisconsin/USC Holiday Bowl BAILOUT on USC -3

One of my favorite tools for handicapping bowl games is strength of schedule.  Well, Holiday Bowl between USC and Wisconsin is one of the biggest SOS mismatches of the bowl season.  The Trojans played the 3rd-toughest schedule in the country, while the Badgers played the 70th-toughest.

USC has played Stanford (twice), Notre Dame, Utah, Oregon and UCLA among others.  It's amazing that the Trojans managed to win the tough Pac-12 South division with the schedule they had to endure.  They were competitive in almost every game they played, too, and they are certainly a more talented team than the Badgers.

Wisconsin went 9-3 this year, but it clearly wasn't as good as its record.  It lost to the three best teams it played in Alabama, Iowa (at home) and Northwestern (at home).  Its nine wins came against Miami Ohio, Troy, Hawaii, Nebraska, Purdue, Illinois, Rutgers, Maryland and Minnesota.  All nine of those teams finished with losing records.

USC is far and away the superior offensive team in this one.  It averages 34.9 points, 449.6 yards per game and 6.3 per play against teams that give up 28.5 points, 416 yards per game and 5.7 per play.  Wisconsin only averages 27.1 points, 377 yards per game and 5.3 per play against teams that give up 27.3 points, 383 yards per game and 5.4 per play.

Senior QB Cody Kessler wants to end his career a winner.  He is completing 67.6 percent of his passes for 3,315 yards with 28 touchdowns and only six interceptions this season.  The Trojans also boast a two-headed monster at running back in Ronald Jones (940 yards, 6.5/carry, 8 TD) and Justin Davis (875 yards, 5.6/carry, 5 TD).

This was not a typical season for Wisconsin offensively.  The Badgers rushed for 320 yards per game and 6.9 per carry last year, but fell all the way down to 148 per game and 3.8 per carry this season.  They will struggle to move the ball against a USC defense that is better than advertised.  The Trojans give up 25.9 points, 401 yards per game and 5.7 per play against teams that average 34.5 points, 452 yards per game and 6.2 per play.

Clay Helton got his long-term contract from the Trojans and there is now some stability with the program, finally.  He led them to a bowl win last year.  Wisconsin's Paul Chryst is just 1-2 in bowl games as a head coach.  USC is one of my favorite teams to back off a loss.  The Trojans are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss, coming back to win by 18.3 points per game.  Take USC Wednesday.

20* Louisville/Texas A&M Music City Bowl No-Brainer on Texas A&M +4.5

The oddsmakers opened Texas A&M as 3-point favorites for this Music City Bowl over Louisville.  Now, with the news that quarterbacks Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray have transferred, they've moved this line a whopping 7.5 points to Texas A&M +4.5.  I would still like the Aggies at -3, and I certainly love them catching 4.5 points here.

Now the Aggies will be playing with a chip on their shoulder in the role of the underdog.  They will be going with junior college transfer Jake Hubenak as their starter, and I like what I'm hearing about this kid.  I actually think this may be addition by subtraction not only for this game, but for the long run for the Aggies.

Allen and Murray were two quarterbacks who were promised playing time by the staff, which is why they were both so frustrated when they couldn't get that playing time consistently.  It's no surprise that they transferred.  They are two players who just want everything given to them instead of earning it, and they certainly didn't earn the playing time they were given.

Hubenak grew up wanting to be an Aggie and then earned his way up.  He went 19-1 as a starter in high school.  He walked on at Oklahoma State and played last season at Blinn College, where he threw for 4,052 yards and 47 touchdowns.  Breaking in new quarterbacks is nothing new for Kevin Sumlin.  Jameil Showers and Matt Davis left the program in 2013, while Kenny Hill and Matt Joeckel left in 2014.  This is a system where you can almost plug in any quarterback.

"I've said all along that I think he could get the job done for us," center Mike Matthews said of Hubenak. "He's been put in that role now and I have no doubt that he will do great for us. It helps that he's an easy guy to rally around. He's a hard-working guy and the team likes him a lot. It's kind of hard not to get along with him and it's easy to follow his lead."

The good news for Hubenak is he has boatloads of talent around him, so he won't be asked to do too much.  Sumlin has recruited very well along the offensive line and at the skill positions.  In fact, this is one of the most talented receiver corps in the country.  All Hubenak needs to do is get the ball into his playmakers' hands in space, and they will do the work for him.

Plus, the Aggies have the best defense that they've had in the Sumlin era.  The addition of former LSU coordinator John Chavis has made a huge difference.  The Aggies are only giving up 21.6 points, 367.2 yards per game and 5.2 per play against teams that average 27.8 points, 403 yards per game and 5.8 per play.  This is actually one of the better defenses in the SEC now.

They thrive against the pass, allowing just 161 passing yards per game and 5.8 per attempt on the season.  They are 20th in the nation in sacks per game (2.75), which doesn't bode well for a Louisville offense that ranks 126th in the country in sacks allowed  per game (3.67).

Louisville doesn't wow you offensively as it averages a mediocre 28.8 points, 406 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play.  Its defense is above average, but it is still giving up 24.3 points per game against teams that average 26.3.  The Aggies played a much tougher schedule this season and will be more battle-tested than the Cardinals.  They will also have a lot more talent on the field as they have 10 NFL prospects to Louisville's 5.  Bet Texas A&M Wednesday.

20* Baylor/UNC Russell Athletic Bowl ANNIHILATOR on North Carolina -3

The Baylor Bears were picked by many to win the Big 12 this year with aspirations of playing in the four-team playoff after finishing No. 5 in the playoff rankings at the end of the regular season last year.  But injuries really hurt this team, their season ended with back-to-back losses to TCU and Texas.

That loss to Texas was real bad because it was at home and the Bears were 21-point favorites.  Now the Bears want no part of this Russell Athletic Bowl after expectations were to win the Big 12 and play in a much bigger bowl game coming into the season.  Plus, the Bears don't have the manpower now.

The Bears are down to third-string quarterback Chris Johnson, who did not play well at all in the final two games.  They are without star receiver Corey Coleman, who won the Biletnikoff Award as the nation's top receiver.  His 1,363 receiving yards and FBS-best 20 touchdown receptions will be missed.  Also out is star running back Shock Linwood, who rushed for 1,329 yards and 6.8 per attempt.

North Carolina went 11-2 this season and won the ACC Coastal.  The Tar Heels nearly upset No. 1 Clemson in the ACC Championship Game, and if not for a fluke offsides penalty on an onside kick that they recovered, they may have beaten the Tigers.  Now they'll be going for their 12th win, and senior QB Marquise Williams certainly wants to go out with a victory.

Williams led an offense that puts up 40.9 points and 486.9 yards per game.  He threw for 2,829 yards and 21 touchdowns, while also rushing for 867 yards and 11 scores.  There's no question that the Tar Heels are going to be the much better offensive team in this one.  Plus, Elijah Hood rushed for 1,345 yards and 17 touchdowns this season, so this is a balanced attack.

While the UNC offense is explosive, the improvement on defense was the biggest reason for the turnaround for the Tar Heels.  They only give up 22.6 points per game against teams that average 25.8 points per game.  They also only allow 5.3 yards per play against teams that average 5.5 per play.  This is now an above-average defense, and a lot of the credit has to go to first-year coordinator Gene Chizik.

Baylor is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 games off three consecutive games where it committed three or more turnovers.  The Tar Heels are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. teams with winning records.  The Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Baylor coach Art Briles is 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS in bowl games.  Bet North Carolina Tuesday.

20* Bengals/Broncos ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Denver -3

The Denver Broncos will be playing with a chip on their shoulder this week when they host the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday Night Football. They have simply given away their last two games, but that’s going to work in our favor here because of the determination they’ll be playing with. They still have everything in front of them as a first-round bye will be theirs if they win out. So don’t expect them to just fold.

The Broncos lost to the Raiders 12-15 at home despite outgaining them by 184 yards and limiting them to just 126 yards of total offense. They did not score a single point in the second half of that game. That is about as fluky of a loss as there is. Then last week they lost 27-34 on the road to the Steelers. That’s not a bad loss with how well the Steelers are playing right now, but is stings considering they had a 27-10 lead before getting shut out in the second half again.

But now the Broncos get to take a step down in competition and return to the friendly confines of Sports Authority Field at Mile High, where they have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL. Now they get to take on a Bengals team that lost at home 20-33 to the Steelers two weeks ago. But the Bengals are getting too much respect for their 24-14 win at San Francisco last week. They were actually outgained by 76 yards by the 49ers as this game wasn’t as big of a blowout as the final score seemed.

The Bengals are dealing with a ton of injuries right now on offense. Andy Dalton is out for the season, leading touchdown catcher Tyler Eifert is questionable with a concussion, and A.J. Green has a back injury. AJ McCarron didn’t even play that well last week, but he’s getting a lot of praise. The Bengals managed just 242 total yards against an awful San Francisco defense with 68 rushing and 174 passing.

Now McCarron and company will meet their match against the league’s best defense. The Broncos rank 1st in the NFL in total defense, giving up 279.9 yards per game, which is 22.3 yards per game better than second place. They rank 1st against the pass (200.0 yards/game) and 1st against the run (79.9 yards/game). If that’s not domination, then I don’t know what is. Look for this defense to be the reason the Broncos get out of here with a much-needed victory by 4-plus points to cover this 3-point spread.

Everyone is making a big deal about whether or not Peyton Manning or Brock Osweiler will start this week. I think that controversy has been the reason for this line dropping all the way down to 3. But it’s not going to matter who is under center because this offense has proven it can do enough to win with either QB under center. That’s because they have the best defense in the NFL. The Broncos still rank 4th in the league in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 62.6 yards per game. Only the Cardinals, Seahawks and Patriots have been better.

Plays on favorites (DENVER) – off a road loss, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 49-22 (69%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays on favorites (DENVER) – off a road loss, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 33-12 (73.3%) ATS over the last five years. Denver is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games after allowing 50 or less rushing yards in two straight games. It is winning in this spot by 21.9 points per game. The Broncos are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up loss.  Bet the Broncos Monday.

15* CMU/Minnesota Quick Lane Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Central Michigan +6

The Central Michigan Chippewas will be happy to be bowling in their home start of Michigan.  They will have a nice home-field advantage here as they get to play this Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit inside of Ford Field, the home of the NFL's Lions.

Central Michigan was better than its 7-5 record would indicate.  Its five losses came to Oklahoma State (by 11), Syracuse (by 3), Michigan State (by 20), Western Michigan (by 2) and Toledo (by 5).  It actually went 4-1 ATS in those five games, which were against five of the best teams that it played.

The Chippewas actually outgained Michigan State by 16 yards despite losing by 20.  They also outgained Western Michigan by 5 yards and Syracuse by 194.  They were only outgained by 78 yards by Toledo and by 77 yards against Oklahoma State, so they really showed that they could play with all five of those teams.

Now the Chippewas are up against a 5-7 Minnesota team that doesn't even deserve to be playing in a bowl game.  But since it's a team from the Power 5, the Chippewas will certainly be up for this game.

"I think it's a big help from a confidence standpoint," first-year coach John Bonamego told the school's official website. "I think our guys feel like we can play with anybody and they've demonstrated that this year. This is another opportunity to go toe-to-toe with a Power 5 opponent and show that we belong in Division I."

Four of Minnesota's five wins this year came by single-digits, including three 3-point wins against Colorado State (23-20), Kent State (10-7) and Ohio (10-7).  If those three teams can play with the Golden Gophers, there's no question that the Chippewas can as well.

The Chippewas are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Central Michigan is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Chippewas are 5-0 ATS in their last five non-conference games.  Central Michigan is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 vs. Big Ten foes.  The Golden Gophers are 1-4 ATS in their last five bowl games.  Minnesota is 0-7 in its last seven postseason games with its last win coming in 2004.  Take Central Michigan Monday.

15* Packers/Cardinals NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Green Bay +4.5

There are a couple different ways you can look at this one. People who like the Cardinals will say that the Packers aren’t going to show up. It is true that the Packers can lose this game and still win the NFC North with a win at home against the Minnesota Vikings next week. But I believe that is not what the Packers are really thinking heading into this one. They could also clinch the division with a win this week and a Minnesota loss to to the Giants.

I think the Packers actually believe they still have a shot at a first-round bye, which is certainly the case. They would need to win their final two games of the season, while also having the Cardinals lose their final two games. And it’s really not a long shot at all considering the Cardinals play the Seahawks at home next week. That’s a Seattle team that is still fighting to make the playoffs and one that won’t just let the Cardinals win next week considering they are bitter rivals. So, it’s realistic to think that the Packers will finish 2-0, while the Cardinals will go 0-2.

The Cardinals are certainly overvalued right now due to their 8-game winning streak. I do believe that this has been the best team in the NFC up to this point, but I also realize that they are laying too many points here and that there is value with the Packers at +4.5, who I consider the second-best team in the NFC. The Cardinals are also dealing with some injuries right now as Carson Palmer has an injured finger on his throwing hand, and star safety Tyrann Mathieu is out for the season after suffering a knee injury last week.

Aaron Rodgers is going to have a much easier day against a Cardinals secondary that doesn’t include Mathieu, who leads the team in pass break-ups and had five interceptions this year. The Cardinals could also be without fellow safety Rashad Johnson, who is battling an ankle injury and missed last game.  They clearly aren't the best team in the NFC this week with the injuries they are dealing with.

Rodgers and the offense are hitting their stride right now. They have put up an average of 28.3 points per game in their last three games. Mike McCarthy just took over play-calling duties two weeks ago, and the Packers responded with 435 total yards against a good Cowboys defense. They scored 30 last week against the Raiders and left a lot of points on the field as Mason Crosby kicked three short field goals of 21, 24 and 33 yards. I love that McCarthy is calling plays again because he and Rodgers have had great chemistry together in their history.

But the defense has been the biggest reason for the Packers' success here of late.  They have given up 23 or fewer points in six straight games coming in.  They are allowing just 16.3 points per game in their last six.  I look for this defense to continue to play well against the Cardinals this week, and to keep them in this game for four quarters.  Keep in mind that at +4.5, we are getting two key numbers in 3 and 4, so if this goes down to the wire like I think it will, then were are in great shape.

The Packers have won seven of their last nine meetings with the Cardinals. Arizona is 0-6 ATS against teams who commit one or fewer turnovers per game on the season over the last two seasons. It is losing to these teams by an average of 11.5 points per game. The Packers have only committed 11 turnovers in 14 games, which is mighty impressive. You know that Rodgers is going to take care of the football and give his team a chance to win. The Packers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games. The Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. teams with winning records.  Take the Packers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Bucs -3

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are one of the best-kept secrets in the NFL this season.  When you look at the numbers this team is putting up, it's clear to me that they are much better than their 6-8 record would indicate.  Look for them to show it this week at home against a Chicago Bears team that appears to have quit.

The Buccaneers rank 7th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 34.7 yards per game.  Of the top nine teams in the yardage differential category, they are the only one that wouldn't be in the playoffs if the season ended today.  They are in some elite company with the Cardinals, Seahawks, Patriots, Broncos, Panthers, Jets, Steelers and Bengals as the top nine teams in this all-important yardage differential stat.

The Bucs average 6.0 yards per play on offense and give up 5.4 yards per play on defense, outgaining teams by 0.6 yards per play.  The Bears average 5.5 yards per play on offense and give up 5.8 per play on defense, getting outgained by 0.3 yards per play.  As long as the Bucs take care of the football, they should have no problem making easy work of the Bears.

After all, the Bears have lost three straight coming into this one to be eliminated from the playoffs.  They lost a pair of heartbreakers at home to the 49ers (in OT) and the Redskins (by 3) before going on the road and getting demolished by the Vikings (by 21) last week.  I don't believe they will pick themselves back up off the mat in time to face the Bucs this week.

I also like this spot for the Bucs.  They fought hard to nearly erase a 28-6 deficit to the Rams last Thursday.  They got back to within 23-31 before missing an onside kick that would have given them the ball with a chance to tie.  They outgianed the Rams by 190 yards in that game.  That showed the character of this team.  Now, the Bucs have three extra days to rest and get ready for the Bears after playing last Thursday.  Look for Jameis Winston and company to put forth one of their best efforts of the season this week.

Doug Martin is second in the NFL in rushing with 1,305 yards this season.  That number would be bigger if the Bucs weren't playing from behind the majority of the time.  Look for them to ride him early and to play from ahead the whole way in this game.  The Bears are awful against the run as they give up 126 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry against teams that only average 112 yards per game and 4.2 per carry.

Chicago is 14-31 ATS in its last 45 road games over the final four weeks of the regular season.  Chicago is 10-24 ATS in its last 34 road games with a total set of 45.5 or higher.  The Bears are 15-39 ATS in their last 54 games vs. excellent offensive teams that average 6.0 or more yards per play.  The Buccaneers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss.  Tampa Bay is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after allowing 30 or more points in its previous game.  Roll with the Bucs Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Falcons +7.5

The Carolina Panthers could not be more overvalued than they are right now. They are 14-0 on the season and now find themselves in the role of being huge road favorites over a division rival. That’s because the oddsmakers know that the betting public is going to keep pounding the unbeaten Panthers, so they are forced to set the line higher than it should be to try and get even action on both sides.

It’s really the perfect storm here because the betting public wants nothing to do with the Falcons. They have lost six of their last seven games overall while also going a pitiful 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The betting public has been killed backing this team, and those who have gone against them have made a fortune. They are going to look to keep fading the Falcons this week.

One obvious indication that this line is inflated is comparing it to the line of the first game these teams played. The Panthers were 8.5-point home favorites over the Falcons two weeks ago. Adjusting for home-field advantage, they should only be about 2.5-point road favorites in the rematch. Instead, this line has been set at 7.5, so the clear value is with the Falcons here.

The Panthers pretty much have home-field advantage already locked up in the NFC. They can afford to lose this game and win next week to secure the No. 1 seed. They have already been careful in resting players with nagging injuries in recent weeks, so don’t be surprised to see that continue.  Jonathan Stewart sat out last week and is expected to sit again here.

Carolina has also been overvalued in each of its last two road games. It needed a last-minute touchdown to beat the Saints 41-38 as 5.5-point favorites, failing to cover that spread three weeks ago. Then last week the Panthers needed a last-second field goal to beat the Giants 38-35 on the road as 4.5-point favorites, also failing to cover that spread. Now they’re being asked to lay 7.5 points against a Falcons team that I believe to be better than both the Saints and Giants.

Statistically and record-wise, the Falcons are better than both the Saints and Giants. They rank 11th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 21.9 yards per game. Of the top 10 teams in yardage differential, only the Bucs are not going to make the playoffs. The other nine teams would all be in the playoffs if the season ended today, so the Falcons are in some elite company here with this yardage differential stat, which I find to be very important.

The Falcons are still alive for the playoffs. Yes, they would need a lot of help, but the fact of the matter is that they are still alive. I like the fight I saw from them last week in their win over the Jaguars. They are going to treat this game against the Panthers as their Super Bowl. Beating a division rival who is 14-0 and ending their perfect season is plenty of motivation to show up at home Sunday. I also like the fact that nine of the Falcons’ 14 games this season have been decided by 6 points or less. They have only lost by more than 4 points three times all season.

Atlanta is 12-1 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards per play in two consecutive games over the last three seasons. It is coming back to win this this spot by an average of 7.2 points per game. Plays on any team (ATLANTA) – after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games are 26-3 (89.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Bet the Falcons Sunday.

15* Redskins/Eagles NFC East No-Brainer on Washington +3

The Washington Redskins are the most complete team in the NFC East this season and deserving of winning it. That’s especially the case with the way they have played here down the stretch. They have won three of their last four games overall with their only loss coming at home to the Dallas Cowboys by a field goal.

Their offense has scored a combined 29.5 points per game in back-to-back wins over Chicago and Buffalo. That’s mighty impressive against those two defenses. Their defense has been playing its best football of the season, too. The Redskins are only giving up 19.8 points per game over their last four.  I just trust this team with the way they are playing right now a lot more than the Eagles, and getting the 3 points is an added bonus.

The Eagles have been thoroughly outplayed each of the last five weeks. They have managed to go 2-3 despite it, but they had two fluke wins. They beat the Patriots 35-28 despite getting outgained by 179 yards.  They only won that game due to three non-offensive touchdowns. They also beat the Bills 23-20 despite getting outgained by 64 yards.

Philadelphia has been outgained in five straight games by an average of 130.6 yards per game. Its defense has been shredded for an average of 35.6 points and 456.6 yards per game in its last five. There’s no way you can trust this team with the way its defense is playing. Kirk Cousins is coming off a 22 of 28, 319-yard, 4-touchdown performance against a good Bills defense last week, and I trust him to have another big game here against the Eagles.

Each of the last six meetings in this series have been decided by eight points or less. In fact, each of the last three meetings have been decided by exactly a field goal. I’d certainly rather have the team catching a field goal in this series because of the close nature of it as well. The Redskins are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings in Philadelphia.

The Eagles are still getting too much respect here even after how poorly they’ve been playing, and with their 23-point loss to the Cardinals last week. They haven’t responded well in this situation, either. The Eagles are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit loss at home. The Eagles are 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.  Bet the Redskins Saturday.

15* CFB Bowl Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Tulsa +14

The fact that this is Frank Beamer's last game as head coach at Virginia Tech has the Hokies way overvalued against Tulsa in the Independence Bowl.  While the Hokies will likely give Beamer a win in his final game, they have no business being two-touchdown favorites with the way that they have played this year.

The Hokies needed a 23-20 win at Virginia just to get bowl eligible in their season finale.  They were thoroughly outplayed by the Cavaliers in that game, but found a way to win.  They were outgained 304-433 by the Cavaliers, or by 129 total yards.

There's no question that Tulsa's defense isn't very good.  They give up 38.6 points per game, but that has come against teams that average 30.3 points per game, so they've played some very good offenses this year.  Fortunately for them, the Hokies won't be one of them.

Virginia Tech only averages 367 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play against teams that give up 374 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play.  It is 114th in the country in yards per carry (3.6).  The Hokies play a conservative brand of football on offense, which makes it tough for them to blow teams out.  That's going to make it very difficult for them to cover this 14-point spread.

VA Tech does have a good defense, but it hasn't been as good as in year's past.  The Hokies give up 24.2 points, 354 yards per game and 5.4 per play against teams that average 37.6 points, 385 yards per game and 5.6 per play.  So, this is just a slightly above-average defense, not one that is among the best in the country.

The Hokies will have their hands full against a Toledo offense that has thrived under first-year head coach Philip Montgomery, the former Baylor offensive coordinator.  The Golden Hurricane are putting up 35.9 points, 503 yards per game and 6.0 per play against teams that give up 29.9 points, 414 yards per game and 5.7 per play.

This is an offense that put up some solid numbers against bowl teams this year.  Tulsa put up 40 points and 600 total yards against New Mexico, 38 points and 603 yards against Oklahoma, 24 points and 456 yards against Houston, 42 points and 534 yards against Memphis, and 38 points and 588 yards against Cincinnati.

Quarterback Dane Evans has thrived in Montgomery's system, completing 63 percent of his passes for 3,958 yards with 22 touchdowns and eight interceptions while averaging a whopping 9.0 yards per attempt.  The Golden Hurricane have two 700-plus yard rushers in Zack Langer and D'Angelo Brewers, who have combined for 21 touchdowns, so they aren't one-dimensional at all.

The Golden Hurricane have only been beaten by more than 14 points twice all season, which came against Memphis (by 24) and Navy (by 23).  They even stayed within 14 of Oklahoma on the road, so they clearly have proven they can play with anyone.

The Golden Hurricane are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Tulsa is 4-1 ATS in its last five bowl games.  Virginia Tech is 7-15-2 ATS in its last 24 non-conference games.  The Hokies are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games.  Roll with Tulsa in the Independence Bowl Saturday.

20* CFB Bowl Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Washington -8.5

Look out for the Washington Huskies to win the Pac-12 next year.  But first, they have some unfinished business after losing to Oklahoma State in their bowl game last year.  They want to finish their season the right way this time.  That shouldn't be a problem against an overmatched Southern Miss team in the Heart of Dallas Bowl.

Washington certainly earned its way into this bowl game by needing wins in its final two games to get here.  And boy did it deliver.  The Huskies beat Oregon State 52-7 on the road before topping Washington State 45-10 at home.  It's safe to say they are playing their best football of the season coming in.

Indeed, they have outgained five straight opponents.  They did lose to Arizona State by 10 and Utah by 11, but they outgained ASU by 150 yards and Utah by 35 yards and arguably should have won both games.  Their three wins have all been via blowout as they've beaten Arizona by 46, Oregon State by 45 and Washington State by 35 over their last five games.

Jake Browning is going to be a great quarterback for this program for years.  The freshman is completing 63% of his passes this season while averaging 8.0 yards per attempt.  He leads a Washington offense that is putting up 37 points per game and 464 total yards per game over its last five contests.

Browning should have his way with a Southern Miss defense that allowed 45 points and 522 total yards to Western Kentucky in the Conference USA Championship.  This Southern Miss defense also has a ton of injury concerns right now after several starters left the WKU game with various injuries.

On the other side of the ball, the Huskies have the best defense in the Pac-12.  They are giving up 17.7 points and 350 yards per game against teams that average 31 points and 431 yards per game.  So, they are holding their opponents to 13.3 points per game less than their season averages.

This is a massive strength of schedule mismatch.  Washington played the 21st-toughest schedule in the country, while Southern Miss played the 135th-toughest.  The Golden Eagles lost to the four best teams they played in Mississippi State (by 18), Nebraska (by 8), Marshall (by 21) and Western Kentucky (by 17).  I believe Washington is better than all four of those teams, and I fully expect the Huskies to roll by double-digits Saturday.

Washington is 8-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last three seasons.  It is winning by an average of 22.6 points per game in this spot.  Plays against any team (SOUTHERN MISS) - after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after two straight wins by 28 or more points are 60-23 (72.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Washington in the Heart of Dallas Bowl Saturday.

15* UConn/Marshall Early ANNIHILATOR on Connecticut +5

The Huskies were one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They went just 2-10 in Bob Diaco's first season last year, but they managed to go 6-6 this season to get bowl eligible.  Diaco certainly has this team on the rise, and they'll be hungry to be playing in their first bowl game since 2010.

Marshall went 9-3 this year, but I wasn't impressed with this team.  The Thundering Herd play in a weak conference in Conference USA.  Their only win against a conference opponent that finished with a winning record was Southern Miss.  But they were fortunate to win that game.  They were outgained by 162 yards, had 14 first downs and 277 yards of total offense.  Southern Miss turned the ball over five times to give the game away.

When you look at what Marshall did out of conference, it was even less impressive.  The Thundering Herd lost by double-digits to a poor Ohio team.  They also needed overtime to beat Kent State, a team that went 3-9.  They were fortunate to beat Purdue at home as the Boilermakers led that game most of the way.  That's a Purdue team that went 2-10.

I think the betting public is a little stuck on this Marshall team because it went 13-1 last year.  But this isn't the same Marshall team as last year.  This is a Marshall offense that is terrible, and one that averages just 5.4 yards per play against teams that give up 5.7 yards per play, so this is a well-below average offense.

UConn boasts an elite defense that is giving up just 19.7 points per game, holding opponents to 7.1 points per game below their season averages.  They only give up 352 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play on the season.  This is expected to be a low-scoring game with both teams featuring decent defenses, so I like getting the +5 points here.

UConn also has a stud running back in Arkeel Newsome, who comes in ranked 18th in the country in all-purpose yards this year.  The Huskies are 5-1 when they rush for at least rush for at least 145 yards this season.  They should have a great chance to do just that against a Marshall defense that gives up 172 rushing yards per game against teams that only average 147 yards per game on the ground.

This is a big strength of schedule mismatch in favor of the Huskies as well.  UConn played the 69th-toughest schedule this season, while Marshall played the 138th-toughest.  As you can see, Marshall's schedule this year could not have been any easier.  The Thundering Herd lost to the best team they played in Western Kentucky by 21 points.

UConn actually beat the 14th-ranked Houston Cougars 20-17 to become bowl eligible on November 21.  That was the only loss the Cougars suffered all season.  That was the second-to-last game for the Huskies, who went on to have a letdown in their season finale at Temple, a team that needed that win to get into the AAC Championship and wanted it more.  The Huskies are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five vs. C-USA opponents.  Take UConn in the St. Petersburg Bowl.

20* Chargers/Raiders NFL Thursday No-Brainer on San Diego +6

The Oakland Raiders were just officially eliminated from the playoffs with their 20-30 home loss to the Green Bay Packers last week.  With that realization comes a disappointment that is tough for players to get over.  And they don't have much time to get over it because they have to play just four days later this week against the San Diego Chargers.  I look for the Raiders to come out flat in this one, and for them to likely lose this game outright.

Given the situation, the Raiders should not be this heavily favored over the Chargers.  I think the biggest reason they are is because they already beat San Diego 37-29 on the road in the first meeting.  But that was an awful spot for San Diego, and a great one for Oakland.

The Chargers were coming of a deflating last-second loss at Green Bay the previous week, and they promptly suffered a hangover from it.  They fell behind 37-6 to the Raiders before finally get their wits about them and making it interesting late.  Meanwhile, the Raiders were coming off their bye week, so they had a two full weeks to prepare for the Chargers.  It's no surprise that they came out guns-a-blazing and played one of their best games of the season off their bye.

What I like about San Diego is that it clearly has not packed it in.  The Chargers have gone 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall while being underdogs in three of the four, and a pick 'em in another.  They beat the Jags 31-25 on the road as 5-point dogs, lost to the Broncos 3-17 at home as 6-point dogs in a game that was closer than the final score, had a chance to tie the game against Kansas City in the closing seconds in a 3-10 loss as 13-point road dogs, and crushed Miami 30-14 at home last week.

The Chargers have one of the best offenses in the NFL.  They rank 6th in the NFL in total offense at 377.8 yards per game, including 4th in passing offense at 293.8 yards per game.  That makes this an excellent matchup for the Chargers.  The Raiders rank 23rd in the NFL in total defense, including 28th against the pass.  The Chargers just put up 30 points, 442 total yards and 302 passing yards on the Dolphins last week and should continue to roll.

The Raiders aren't that good offensively contrary to popular belief.  They have been held to 24 or fewer points in six straight games, including 20 or fewer in five of the six.  They are averaging just 17.7 points per game during this stretch.  They are 2-5 in their last seven games overall and easily could be 0-7.  They beat Tennessee by 3 only after needing a last-minute touchdown.  Their 15-12 win over Denver was a complete fluke considering they were held to just 126 yards of total offense and were outgained by 184 yards.

It won't be any easier for the Oakland offense this week against a San Diego defense that is hitting its stride here down the stretch.  The Chargers are only giving up 13.7 points per game and 284.3 yards per game over their last three contests.  What you also have to love about the Chargers getting 6 points is that they are better than their 4-10 record as they have lost a lot of close games this year.  Indeed, seven of their 10 losses have come by a touchdown or less.

The Raiders' win over the Chargers in their first meeting this season was an aberration.  The Chargers have won six of the last eight meetings.  They've outgained the Raiders in five straight meetings.  Plus, it hasn't been good to be the favorite in this series.  In fact, the underdog is 12-1 (92%) ATS in the last 13 meetings.

The Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.  The Raiders are 16-36-1 ATS in their last 53 games in December.  The Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Plays on road underdogs or pick (SAN DIEGO) - after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.

15* Cincinnati/SDSU Hawaii Bowl BAILOUT on San Diego State -3

The San Diego State Aztecs went 10-3 this season and will be going for their first 10-game winning streak in 39 yards.  I look for them to continue their roll and to cap off a fine season with a win and cover against the inconsistent Cincinnati Bearcats in the Hawaii Bowl.

San Diego State's defense has been simply dominant this season.  It ranks first or second in the MWC in 13 different categories.  It ranks 5th nationally in total defense (287.9 yards/game), 6th in rushing D (111.2 yards/game) and 10th in scoring D (17.2 PPG).  The Aztecs held eight straight opponents to 17 points or fewer before beating Air Force in the league title game.

The Aztecs lead the nation in turnover margin (+1.46) and their 31 takeaways are the third-most in the country.  Now they'll be up against a Cincinnati team that is prone to turnovers.  The Bearcats have committed 30 turnovers this season and are -16 in turnover differential.  There's a great chance that turnovers decide this game.

Cincinnati had a late scratch at the quarterback position.  Gunner Kiel has missed the trip for undisclosed personal reasons.  That leaves freshman Hayden Moore to start.  He played well in limited action this year for a freshman with 58.5 percent completions and 1,683 yards, but he threw just nine touchdowns against eight interceptions.  This freshman will be under duress all game against SDSU's fierce pass rush, and I expect him to make plenty of mistakes with the football.

The Aztecs boast a rushing attack that averages 235 yards per game and 4.9 per carry.  Donnel Pumphrey is a game-changer.  He was the league's Offensive Player of the Year.  Pumphrey's 1,554 yards are good for 10th nationally.  He has 19 total touchdowns and 27 receptions to boot.

Pumphrey is in line for a big day against Cincinnati's horrid rush defense.  The Bearcats give up 191 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry against teams that only average 151 yards per game and 4.0 per carry.  They gave up 215 to Temple, 220 to Miami Ohio, 212 to UCF, 266 to Houston, 213 to Tulsa and 361 to South Florida.

Cincinnati is 0-8 ATS in non-conference road games over the last three seasons.  It is losing by an average of 13.1 points per game in this spot.  SDSU is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games versus good offensive teams that score 34 or more points per game.  The Aztecs are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  The Bearcats are 2-6 ATS in their last eight bowl games.  Take San Diego State in the Hawaii Bowl Thursday.

15* Boise State/NIU Poinsettia Bowl Total DOMINATOR on OVER 56

I expect a shootout in the Poinsettia Bowl between the Boise State Broncos and Northern Illinois Huskies this afternoon. For starters, the weather is going to be perfect for this bowl game at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, which will help aid the offensive fireworks.

This Boise State offense will do the heavy lifting in doing its part to get the OVER.  After all, the Broncos are putting up 37.7 points and 488.6 yards per game on the season.  Brett Rypien is completing 62.5 percent of his passes for 2,973 yards and 17 touchdowns.  Jeremy McNichols has rushed for 1,244 yards and 18 scores.

The Huskies have been solid offensively this season, averaging 33.0 points per game.  That's very impressive when you consider they've played musical chairs at the quarterback position.  Drew Hare got hurt, Ryan Graham got hurt, and Tommy Fiedler was forced into action in the final two games of the season.  The offense did not go well under Fiedler.

But the good news is that Graham is returning at quarterback fro the bowl game as he's fully recovered from his leg injury.  And Graham didn't miss a beat in replacing Hare.  He actually averaged 8.1 yards per attempt compared to the 7.6 from Hare and the 5.9 from Fiedler.  Graham also produced 153 rushing yards in his limited action.

Neither of these defenses are playing very well coming into the bowl game.  The Huskies have allowed an average of 26.3 points and 463.7 yards per game in their last three contests.  The Broncos have been even worse, giving up 30.3 points and 498.0 yards per game in their last three.

Boise State is 6-0 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last two seasons.  The Broncos are 6-0 OVER in road games off one or more consecutive overs over the last three seasons.  Boise State is 10-2 OVER when the total is between 49.5 and 56 points over the last two years.  The OVER is 13-3 in Broncos last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

25* Pre-New Year's Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Temple -1.5

The Temple Owls over the Toledo Rockets in the Boca Raton Bowl represents my strongest release of the bowl season prior to the new year.  That makes this my second-favorite bowl play of the season, only behind my 25* Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR, which will be coming later.  Wager accordingly.

After finishing 2-10 in 2013 and 6-6 last year while not getting selected to a bowl game, the Owls came into the season with the motto "Leave No Doubt".  They certainly left no doubt as they went 10-3 this season and were a win away from playing in a New Year's Day bowl.  Now they get to play in their first bowl game of the Matt Rhule era.

The Owls played a brutal schedule this year, too.  Their three losses came against very good teams.  They lost 20-24 at home to Notre Dame, which about made the four-team playoff.  They did have a 23-44 loss at South Florida, which is a Bulls team that is playing as well as almost anyone in the country, and that game was to get bowl eligible for the Bulls.  It was also a lookahead spot for Temple as it had Memphis on deck.

The other loss came in the AAC Championship in what turned out to be a true road game at Houston.  The Owls lost that game 13-24, but they actually outgained the Cougars by 46 yards in that contest.  They held the high-powered Cougars to just 339 yards in that loss, but two turnovers committed by their offense were their undoing.

This Temple defense is legitimately one of the top stop units in the country.  It held Notre Dame to just 24 points, Houston to 24 points, and a high-powered Memphis attack to just 12 points and 232 total yards.  The Owls only give up 19.2 points, 329.2 yards per game and 4.9 per play against teams that average 27.5 points, 403 yards per game and 5.6 per play.  Their defense is going to be the difference in this one.

Toledo is getting way too much credit for its 9-2 season that featured wins over Power 5 schools in Iowa State and Arkansas.  But the Rockets were outgained by 172 yards by Iowa State and only won that game in OT after the Cyclones missed a chip-shot field goal that would have won it.  They were also outgained by 197 yards in a fluke 16-12 win over Arkansas.

Temple head coach Matt Rhule is going to be on the sideline for this game after signing a new contract and seeing it through with his players that they win a bowl game after getting snubbed last year.  I trust in Bronko Nagurski Award winner Tyler Matakevich and this huge senior class at Temple to show up for this bowl game and finish the season on a high note with a win to get their 11th victory.

I do not trust the Toledo players to show up.  Head coach Matt Campbell left for Iowa State, leaving first-time coach Jason Candle to guide the Rockets.  That's one of the biggest factors in this game for me is that the Rockets have an interim coach after Campbell bailed on them.

I also like this matchup for the Owls.  The Rockets rely heavily on their running game to move the ball.  They rush for 213 yards per game and 5.1 per carry.  But the going is going to be tough against this Owls defense, which gives up just 126 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry.  The Owls held five of their opponents this season to season lows in yards.

Toledo is 0-7 ATS after allowing 6.25 or more yards per play in its previous game over the last there seasons.  Rhule is 9-2 ATS versus good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game as the coach of Temple.  The Owls are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up loss.  The Rockets are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  Bet Temple Tuesday.

25* MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Lions/Saints OVER 50.5

While I would take the Saints if I was forced to take a side, I don't trust either of these teams against the spread.  I do, however, feel there is great value with the OVER in this game.  Both teams have been eliminated from playoff contention, and when two teams don't have anything to play for, there's a good chance it's going to be a high-scoring, playground-type game.  I foresee that being the case in this one, especially in front of the bright lights on Monday Night Football.

Both teams are used to playing inside a dome, and this will be ideal conditions for each to maximize their offense.  After all, the last four Saints' home games have all exceeded this 50.5-point total.  Indeed, they combined for 52 points with the Falcons (31-21), 101 points with the Giants (52-49), 62 points with the Titans (28-34) and 79 points with the Panthers (38-41) in their last four home games, respectively.  They have combined for an average of 73.5 points and 866 total yards per game with their opponents in their last four home games.  That's 23 more points than this 50.5-point total.

It has been well documented that the Saints are on a record-setting pace for attrition defensively this season.  They give up a league-most 30.5 points and 416.1 yards per game this season while surrendering 6.7 yards per play as well.  And it's not like the Lions have been a whole lot better as they give up 25.8 points and 5.8 yards per play this season, both among the worst marks in the league.
 
The Lions have been better offensively here of late as they are averaging 27.3 points per game in their last three contests.  The Saints still have a high-powered offense that puts up 24.8 points per game while ranking 4th in the NFL in total offense at 395.0 yards per game.  Plus, Drew Brees and company have really enjoyed facing the Lions.

The last four meetings in this series have seen 47, 73, 48 and 72 combined points with the 73 and 72-point performances both coming in New Orleans.  That's an average of 60.0 combined points per game.  The Saints have owned the Lions in the last five meetings, averaging 37.2 points and 503.8 yards per game.  They will certainly do their part in getting this OVER, and I fully expect one of the best offensive outputs of the season from the Lions against this putrid New Orleans defense.

The OVER is 5-1 in Lions last six games on fieldturf.  The OVER is 8-2 in Lions last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing record.  New Orleans is 18-6 to the OVER in its last 24 home games versus poor rushing teams that average 90 or fewer rushing yards per game.  Neither team can run the football, which is going to make this a pass-heavy game, and that favors the over with more clock stoppages.  The Saints are 32nd in the league in giving up 8.5 yards per pass attempt, while the Lions are 23rd at 7.7 per attempt.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* WKU/USF Miami Beach Bowl No-Brainer on South Florida +2.5

The South Florida Bulls are ecstatic to be playing in a bowl game this year.  After going a combined 6-18 in Willie Taggart's first two seasons, the Bulls put together an 8-4 campaign this year that not many saw coming.  This team was one of the most improved teams in the country, and yet they still aren't getting the respect they deserve here as underdogs to C-USA opponent Western Kentucky.

The Bulls head into this bowl game playing literally as well as almost anyone in the country.  They have won four straight and seven of their last eight.  The last four wins have been mighty impressive to say the least when you dive a little deeper into the box scores of the four games.

It started with a 22-17 win at East Carolina as 5.5-point dogs as the Bulls outgained the Pirates by 222 yards in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score.  Then came a 44-23 win over Temple as 2.5-point home dogs.  The Bulls outgained the Owls by 176 yards.  Then came a 65-27 home win over Cincinnati as 1-point dogs as the Bulls outgained the Bearcats by 131 yards.  They finished their season with a 44-3 win at UCF as 24.5-point favorites and outgained the Knights by 252 yards.

Add it all up, and this 4-0 run has seen the Bulls pull three 'upsets' while outscoring their four opponents by an average of 26.3 points per game and outgain them by an average of 195.3 yards per game.  In their last three games alone, the Bulls are putting up 52.3 points and 514.7 yards per game, while allowing just 21.0 points and 260.3 yards per game.  If that's not great football, then I don't know what is.

"The beauty is they're a young team, they're young guys, and they're learning to be that way at a young age," Taggart said. "The future is very bright here at USF."

That optimism is centered around a pair of sophomores, running back Marlon Mack (1,273 rushing yards, 8 TDs) and dynamic quarterback Quinton Flowers (883 rushing yards, 10 TDs, 21 TD passes). The duo heads a relentless rushing attack that's amassed at least 242 yards in all eight wins.

Western Kentucky also had a great season with an 11-2 record and a Conference USA Championship.  However, the difference is that C-USA isn't nearly as strong as the American Athletic.  So, Western Kentucky's wins over top C-USA teams like Marshall and Southern Miss aren't nearly as impressive as South Florida's wins over top AAC teams like Temple and Cincinnati.

We saw the Hilltoppers struggle when they stepped out of conference, which is an even bigger indication that C-USA isn't very good considering WKU is its best team.  WKU only beat Vanderbilt 14-12 and gained just 247 total yards against the Commodores.  WKU also lost to Indiana 35-38 and gave up 639 total yards to the Hoosiers.  The other loss was a 20-48 setback at LSU.

WKU is perceived to have the better offense because it put up better numbers than USF, but keep in mind it came against a much easier schedule.  I believe the way the Bulls are playing right now offensively that they are every bit as good as the Hilltoppers on that side of the ball.

But the difference is going to be USF's defense, which is better than WKU's stop unit.  The Bulls only give up 21.1 points, 361 yards per game and 5.0 per play this season.  The Hilltoppers allow 25.2 points, 389 yards per game and 5.5 per play this season.  Keep in mind the ease of the schedule in which the Hilltoppers played, too, when comparing these numbers.

South Florida is 9-0 ATS in games played on a grass field this season.  The Bulls are 7-0 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last two years.  Stopping Brandon Doughty and the WKU passing attack will be key, and the Bulls have the goods to do it.  They give up just 54.5% completions, 221 passing yards per game and 6.6 yards per pass attempt.  Take South Florida Monday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Green Bay Packers -3

I've been saying for a while now that Mike McCarthy needed to resume his old role of calling the plays for the Packers.  This offense was really lost up to this point and underperforming based off of the success they had in recent seasons.  But McCarthy finally made the right move and took over the playbook last week against the Cowboys.

The result? How about a 28-7 win over Dallas in which the Packers racked up 435 total yards, including 230 rushing, to take some pressure off of Aaron Rodgers.  This offense should keep rolling this week against an Oakland defense that is one of the worst in the NFL.

The Raiders rank 25th in total defense, giving up 373 yards per game.  They are also 28th against the pass, allowing an average of 371.5 passing yards per game.  While they are only giving up 101 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry, that's not that great when you consider their opponents only average 104 rushing yards per game and 4.0 per carry on the season.  This is just an average run defense, so expect Eddie Lacy to continue his late-season surge this week.

While the Packers have gotten it together offensively in recent weeks, their defense continues to play at a very high level.  They are only allowing 18.8 points per game on the season, including 15.7 points and 288.7 yards per game over their last three contests.

The Raiders could easily be 0-6 in their last six games instead of 2-4.  They needed a last-minute touchdown to beat Tennessee by 3.  Then they were thoroughly outplayed by Denver last week, getting outgained by 184 yards while being held to just 126 yards of total offense.  But somehow they managed to win that game 15-12, and now they are clearly being overvalued after that huge win.

The Raiders are just 2-4 at home this season and have one of the worst home-field advantages in the NFL.  They are 9-22 ATS in their last 31 games as a home underdog of 3 points or less.  They are losing in these games by an average of 9.0 points per game.  The Raiders are 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 December games as well.

The Packers are notorious strong finishers as they are 4-0 ATS in their last four December games.  Green Bay is 57-33 ATS in the last four weeks of the regular season since 1992.  The Raiders are 6-15 ATS following an ATS win over the last three seasons.  McCarthy is 24-7 ATS vs. mistake-prone teams who commit 60-plus yards in penalties as the coach of Green Bay.  Jack Del Rio is 1-11 ATS in home games off a win by 6 points or less in all games he has coached.  Take the Packers Sunday.

25* NFL DOG OF THE YEAR on New York Giants +4.5

Eli Manning is a man of few words. However, after a three-game losing streak and a ton of close losses this season, Manning gave his team a speech leading up to the Miami game last week. It emphasized finishing games, and boy did he back up his talk. Manning had his best game of the year, completing 27 of 31 passes for 337 yards and four touchdowns without an interception in the 31-24 win at Miami. Look for this team to be brimming with confidence now heading into this game against undefeated Carolina.

Because the Giants have lost so many close games this year, it’s easy to see why I believe there is value in getting them as 4.5-point home underdogs here. Six of the Giants’ seven losses this season have come by 6 points or less, so they have only been blown out once all season. There’s a great chance this game is decided by less than 4.5 points.

I also like the fact that the Giants have a lot to play for right now and need this win more. They are currently in a 3-way tie with the Eagles and Redskins atop the NFC East as all three teams won last week. The Panthers can afford a loss now that they’re 13-0 knowing that they’d still be in line to earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC even with a defeat.

The Giants are 3-3 at home this season with wins over the Redskins, 49ers and Cowboys. But in their three losses, they held a late lead over the Patriots, Jets and Falcons. The blew a 20-10 fourth quarter lead against the Falcons and lost by 4, they blew an identical 20-10 fourth quarter lead against the Jets and lost in overtime by 3, and they allowed Tom Brady to engineer a game-winning drive, losing on a last-second field goal by 1. If they can play with the Patriots at home, then can certainly hang with the Panthers.

The fact of the matter is that bettors are being asked to pay a premium to back the Panthers right now. That’s because they are 13-0 SU & 10-3 ATS this season, making backers a ton of money at the pay window. This 4.5-point spread is essentially saying that the Panthers would be 7.5-point favorites on a neutral field, which is too much. The Panthers nearly lost as 5.5-point road favorites at New Orleans in their last road game, winning by 3. It’s time to fade this team here down the stretch.

Three key Carolina players are all nursing injuries but are expected to play Sunday. TE Greg Olsen (knee), QB Cam Newton (wrist) and LB Luke Kuechly (ankle) are all banged up right now. Now to mention, RB Jonathan Stewart will miss this game with a foot injury. Stewart is a big loss because he’s far and away the team’s top rusher with 989 yards and six touchdowns. Next in line are Mike Tolbert (175 yards) and Fozzy Whittaker (74 yards).

The Panthers are going to have their hands full with this Giants' passing attack that ranks 6th in the league at 272.0 yards per game.  Odell Beckham has been an absolute beast as he's tied for the NFL lead with 12 touchdown receptions.  Carolina is banged up in the secondary as well.  It lost cornerback Bene Benwikere to a fractured leg last weekend after he had been starting for Charles Tillman, who has missed the last four games with a sprained knee.

Plays against road favorites (CAROLINA) – off a home blowout win by 21 points or more are 67-36 (65%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Plays against road teams (CAROLINA) – off a win against a division rival, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 29-9 (76.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

20* Arkansas State/LA Tech New Orleans Bowl BAILOUT on Louisiana Tech -1.5

Arkansas State rolled through the awful Sun Belt this season with a perfect 8-0 record.  They also went 6-2 ATS in those final eight games.  That finish has them way overvalued heading into this New Orleans Bowl against Louisiana Tech as just 1.5-point underdogs.

When the Red Wolves stepped out of conference against tougher competition, they really struggled.  They lost by 30 to Toledo and by 49 to USC en route to a 1-3 non-conference record.  Now they face the best team that they have since the non-conference in LA Tech.

The Bulldogs failed to cover the spread in their final two games this season, which I believe has them undervalued.  They have a sour taste in their mouths from a 34-point loss to Southern Miss in the finale that will have these players chomping at the bit to get back on the field and redeem themselves.  But everything that could go wrong against Southern Miss, did.  They turned the ball over 7 times to give the game away.

That loss to Southern Miss was one of four for the Bulldogs this season.  The other three all came on the road, including narrow losses to quality teams in Western Kentucky (by 3) and Kansas State (by 6, OT).  The other was a 25-point loss at SEC power Mississippi State.

LA Tech has had the opportunity to face a Sun Belt team this season, and it rolled.  The Bulldogs beat Louisiana-Lafayette by 29 and outgained the Rajin' Cajuns by 97 yards.  They won that game 43-14, limiting them to just 331 yards of total offense.  That gives LA Tech and Arkansas State a common opponent.

Arkansas State only beat Louisiana-Lafayette 37-27 on the road.  The Red Wolves won that game despite getting outgained by 50 yards by the Rajin Cajuns.  They allowed 485 total yards and were very fortunate to come away with a victory.

LA Tech played a tougher schedule than Arkansas State, yet it was still better statistically this season.  The Bulldogs are outgaining teams by 83 yards per game and 1.3 yards per play.  The Red Wolves are only outgaining teams by 51 yards per game and 0.4 yards per play.

This is a great matchup for the Bulldogs.  The Red Wolves rely heavily on the run, rushing for 236 yards per game and 5.0 per carry.  But the strength of the Bulldogs is their ability to stop the run defensively.  They give up just 116 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry.

This is going to be like a home game for LA Tech as it will be playing in their home state down in New Orleans.  Senior QB Jeff Driskel, who has thrown 24 touchdowns against eight interceptions while also rushing for 307 yards and five scores, wants to go out with a bang.

As does senior RB Kenneth Dixon, who has rushed for 971 yards and 22 total touchdowns this season despite missing two games with an ankle injury.  He has rushed for 4,378 yards in his career here.  His 83 career touchdowns are currently two behind Navy's Keenan Reynolds for the all-time mark, so he will certainly be determined to try and post one final big game to push Reynolds for that record.

This is a matchup of former conference rivals.  Louisiana Tech has gone 9-1 straight up in its last 10 meetings with Arkansas State with seven of those wins coming by 14 points or more.  Arkansas State is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 games after gaining 300 or more rushing yards in its last game.  LA Tech is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games following an upset loss as a favorite.  The Bulldogs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home.  The Bulldogs are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.  Bet Louisiana Tech Saturday.

15* Jets/Cowboys NFL Saturday No-Brainer on New York -3

The Jets can’t afford to take their foot off the gas this week. They are 8-5 on the season and tied with Pittsburgh and Kansas City for the final two wild card spots in the AFC. Only two of those three teams will be going to the playoffs, so it’s essential that the Jets continue to win. I like their frame of mind coming into this one, and I really like the way this team is playing right now.

The Jets have won three straight games coming in and have been dominant in doing so. Offensively, the Jets are averaging 30.3 points and 437.7 yards per game in their last three games, and their offense just doesn’t get enough credit. Everyone knows that the Jets have an elite defense, giving up 16.0 points and 326.7 yards per game in their last three. So, they’re outscoring opponents by 14.3 points per game and outgaining them by 111.0 yards per game in their last three.

The Cowboys are not going to be in a good frame of mind in this game. Entering last week, the Cowboys were only one game out of first place in the NFC. But after a 7-28 loss to the Packers, and with the Redskins, Eagles and Giants all winning, the Cowboys now find themselves a full two games back in the NFC East with three games to go. It will be nearly impossible for them to win the division now, and the players know it. Look for them to not even show up this week.

The Cowboys are 1-8 without Tony Romo as their starting quarterback. Their lone win came on a last-second field goal over the Washington Redskins. It was same old, same old for the Cowboys last week against the Packers. They got nothing going offensively as they managed just 270 total yards, including a 13-for-29 effort from Matt Cassel. They finished with just 99 passing yards. Their defense also had a poor game, giving up 28 points and 435 yards to the Packers.

Dallas has struggled offensively all season, averaging just 17.7 points and 325.8 yards per game on the year. Things aren’t going to get any easier against this Jets defense, which gives up just 19.7 points and 323.8 yards per game. Darrelle Revis just returned to the lineup last week and helped shut down the Titans, and having him back is huge to match up with Dez Bryant.

Dallas has really struggled at home this season. It is 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS at home this year, getting outscored by 10.0 points per game on average. The Cowboys really haven’t had a very good home-field advantage since they got the new stadium. That new stadium attracts a lot of fans from the other team, and most of the time you’ll be hearing loud cheers when the other team does something well. I can’t imagine the fan support for this home game for the Cowboys is going to be very great this week given their current standing in the NFC East. They are done for.

Matt Cassel has been far worse than the other two quarterbacks on this roster in Romo and Brandon Weeden. Cassel is completing just 58.9 percent of his passes with a 5-to-6 TD/INT ratio while averaging only 6.3 yards per attempt. All he does is check the ball down and rarely take deep shots, which makes this offense so predictable. The fact that Dez Bryant only has 27 receptions for 351 yards and two touchdowns despite playing in eight games tells you all you need to know. They don’t even look for him most the time.

Jason Garrett is 15-28 ATS in all home games as the coach of the Cowboys. Garrett is 4-12 ATS in home games off one or more consecutive ATS losses at Dallas. The Jets are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games in December. The Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record. Dallas is 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games. The Cowboys are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games on fieldturf.

15* Ohio/App State Camellia Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Ohio +7.5

The Appalachian State Mountaineers had a very solid 10-2 season this year.  Give them a lot of credit, but that record clearly has them overvalued heading into this Camellia Bowl against MAC opponent, Ohio.  The Mountaineers should not be favored by more than a touchdown.

After all, the Mountaineers played one of the easiest schedules in the country.  They beat Howard, Old Dominion and Wyoming out of conference, and lost by 31 to Clemson in their other non-conference game.  Their other seven wins came against Sun Belt teams, and they lost to the second-best team they played this season in Arkansas State 27-40 at home.

The Mountaineers also have a couple of shaky performances within the Sun Belt that make be believe they are going to struggle to win this game, let alone beat Ohio by more than a touchdown.  They needed overtime to beat Try 44-41 at home, and they only won 34-27 at South Alabama as 18-point favorites in their final game of the season.

Ohio played a much more difficult schedule in the MAC and came away with an 8-4 record.  After a 5-1 start, this team lost three in a row, but showed a ton of heart with how they finished the season.  That finish has me liking their chances of pulling off the upset here in the Camellia Bowl.

Indeed, this is a veteran Bobcats bunch that returned 18 starters from last year, and they weren't going to go away quietly down the stretch.  They beat Kent State 27-0 and Ball State 48-31 at home before going on the road and upsetting Northern Illinois 26-21, a team that has won three of the last five MAC titles.

In these last three games, the Bobcats are scoring 33.7 points and averaging 484.0 yards per game.  They are giving up just 17.3 points and 313.3 yards per game.  As you can see, they are outscoring opponents by 16.4 points per game and outgaining them by 171 yards per game.  They have outgained four of their last five opponents with the only exception being the 38 yards they were outgained by Bowling Green, which won the MAC this year.

The Bobcats really got their running game going down the stretch, rushing for 298.5 yards per game over their final four games.  The Mountaineers have been vulnerable against the run at times as they gave up 309 yards to Arkansas State, 218 to Wyoming and 214 to South Alabama.  The Mountaineers rush for 268 yards per game, so stopping the run will be key.  The Bobcats held Northern Illinois to just 73 rushing yards on 38 carries in their final game, and they've allowed just 109.0 rushing yards per game in their last three.

The Bobcats are 6-0 ATS in their last six non-conference games.  Ohio is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games after gaining more than 200 rushing yards in its previous game.  The Bobcats are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  The Mountaineers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win.  These four trends combine for a 21-1 system backing the Bobcats.  Roll with Ohio Saturday.

15* Arizona/New Mexico 2015 Bowl Season Opener on New Mexico +9

This is a classic case of a team that wants to be in their bowl game and a team that doesn't.  I'll gladly back the team that wants to be in this New Mexico Bowl, and catching 9 points is just an added bonus.

Bob Davie is in his fourth year of changing the culture at New Mexico.  After a 7-5 season, the Lobos will now be going to their fist bowl game since 2007.  They will be playing on their home field in Albuquerque, no less.

"It's a big deal for us to get in this game," Davie said. "Everyone knows the dynamics of what has gone on here to get this program back. We're getting better, and not everyone in the country can say that."

The Arizona Wildcats won 10 games in 2014 and made an appearance in the Pac-12 title game that culminated in a trip to the Fiesta Bowl.  After that performance last year, these players aren't going to be nearly as excited to be going to the New Mexico Bowl after a 6-6 season in 2015.

But they overachieved last year, and injuries really derailed them after a 3-0 start this season.  They needed a 37-30 home upset of Utah just to become bowl eligible after three straight losses, and they concluded their season with a 37-52 loss at Arizona State for four defeats in their final five games.

New Mexico has beaten some very quality teams here down the stretch.  It won 14-13 at home over Utah State as 20.5-point dogs, 31-24 at Boise State as 30.5 point dogs, and 47-35 at home against Air Force as 11-point dogs in three of its final four games.  As you can see, the Lobos relish the opportunity of playing the underdog role.

This is a great matchup for the Lobos.  They rush for 248 yards per game and 5.2 per carry, and their 37 rushing touchdowns are the sixth-most in the nation.  Arizona gives up 188 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry against teams that only average 165 yards per game and 4.2 per carry.

The Wildcats have surrendered at least 30 points nine times this season and rank 10th in the Pac-12 in total defense at 463.4 yards per game.  They have really been torched on the ground here of late, giving up at least 201 rushing yards in four straight games.  New Mexico rushed for 268 against Colorado State and 377 against Air Force in its final two games of the year.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW MEXICO) - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival against opponent after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more are 44-18 (71%) ATS since 1992.

Arizona is 0-8 ATS after covering the spread in two of its last three games over the last two seasons.  It is losing these games by an average of 23.0 points per game.  The Lobos are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following an upset win over a conference opponent as a home underdog.  Take New Mexico Saturday.

20* Bucs/Rams NFL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay +3

The oddsmakers are essentially saying that these are two evenly-matched teams considering home-field advantage is worth 2.5 to 3 points in the NFL. I don’t believe that’s even close to being the case as the Buccaneers are far and away the better team. But since the Bucs lost last week and the Rams won, the betting public is quick to back the Rams. That has created some nice line value to swoop in and grab the Bucs plus the points.

Tampa Bay sits at 6-7 on the season with still an outside shot to make the playoffs. It will be laying it all on the line in this one to get a win to try and stay alive. St. Louis was eliminated from playoff contention when it lost five straight games prior to a win over the Lions last week. But that was a hangover spot for the Lions, who had their three-game winning streak snapped the previous week against the Packers, who won on a last-second hail mary. The Lions didn’t even show up against the Rams.

The numbers show that the Bucs are the superior team. They rank 10th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 22.7 yards per game. The Rams rank 28th in yardage differential, getting outgained by 56.4 yards per game. The Rams have been outgained in eight of their 12 games this year, while the Bucs have outgained nine of their 12 opponents.

In fact, the Bucs have outgained nine of their last 11 opponents, which is the sign of a good team. The Rams have been outgained in five straight while losing five of their last six. They have been outgained by an average of 129.2 yards per game in their last five contests. The Bucs average 6.0 yards per play on offense and give up 5.3 yards per play on defense. The Rams average 5.3 yards per play on offense and give up 5.5 yards per play on defense.

The Rams rank 31st in the NFL in total offense at 297.9 yards per game and 31st in scoring offense at 16.2 points per game. The key to stopping the Rams’ offense is stopping Todd Gurley and the running game, and the Bucs are well-equipped to do just that. The Bucs rank 8th in the NFL against the run at 94.1 yards per game allowed. They are also 2nd in the NFL in allowing just 3.4 yards per carry. This is simply a great matchup for them.

The Buccaneers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss. The Rams are 18-37 ATS in their last 55 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. St. Louis is 1-5 ATS in its last six Thursday games. Tampa Bay is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a loss. The Bucs are also 5-1 straight up following a loss in all games this season, so they have been resilient. The underdog is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Bet the Bucs Thursday.

20* Giants/Dolphins ESPN Monday No-Brainer on New York -1

The Giants are a better team than their 5-7 record would suggest. They have blown four double-digit leads this season to lose games. It happened again last week against the Jets. However, the mindset of this team is till very good as they are tied for the NFC East lead despite their poor record. Even Tom Coughlin was doing jumping jacks in front of his team earlier this week to try and energize them given their favorable situation.

The Dolphins are all but eliminated from the playoffs. They have a much tougher road, and even if they win out to get to 9-7, they know it’s probably still not going to be enough. But this team has looked like they’ve packed it in for quite some time now, so the possibility of winning out is slim to none. Sure, they have a couple wins here recently, but their play has been awful and they were fortunate to win both games.

The Dolphins are 2-4 in their last six games, and they’ve been outgained in all six games while getting outscored by 11.7 points per game and outgained by 124.5 yards per game. They lost 7-36 to the Patriots and were outgained by 167 yards, they lost 17-33 to the Bills and were outgained by 23 yards, they won 20-19 at Philadelphia despite getting outgained by 147 yards, they lost 14-24 to Dallas while getting outgained by 176 yards, they lost 20-38 to the Jets and got outgained by 78 yards, and then they won 15-13 last week against the Ravens despite getting outgained by 156 yards.

Miami’s offense managed just eight first downs and 219 total yards against the Ravens last week. This offense has averaged just 15.5 points and 286.3 yards per game over their last six games. The defense has been awful ever since losing top pass rusher Cameron Wake to a season-ending Achilles injury. The Dolphins are giving up 27.2 points and 410.8 yards per game over their last six games.

You look at the losses by the Giants this season and it’s easy to see that they are better than their 5-7 record. Six of their seven losses have come by 6 points or less. They held 4th quarter leads in all five of their losses to the Cowboys (by 1), Falcons (by 4), Saints (by 3), Patriots (by 1) and Jets (by 3). I think they will be up enough on Miami that a comeback isn’t going to be possible for the Dolphins with the way they are playing right now.  Look for finishing to be the message by Coughlin this week, and for the Giants to execute down the stretch of this game to pull out the win.

The Giants are 5-1 straight up in their last six meetings with the Dolphins, and they have never lost in three visits to Miami. Miami is 0-8 ATS in its last eight December games. The Dolphins are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 home games after a win by 3 points or less. Miami is 1-7 ATS in its last eight home games overall. The Dolphins are 0-6 ATS in their last six Monday games. The Dolphins are 13-39-1 ATS in their last 53 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Bet the Giants Monday.

15* Patriots/Texans NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on New England -3

I can’t see any way the Patriots lose their third straight game this week when you consider they haven't had a 3-game losing streak in 13 years.  They shouldn’t have lost their last two as they were in control of both games before uncharacteristically not being able to finish the deal. But those two losses have the Patriots undervalued here because without them, they would probably be somewhere in the neighborhood of a 7-point favorite if they were 12-0 instead of 10-2.

Two weeks ago, the Patriots held a 21-17 lead over the Broncos with 6 minutes to play before fumbling a punt and giving them great field position. They eventually lost that game in overtime. Then last week, the Patriots led the Eagles 14-0 and were seemingly in control. But then they had a blocked punt returned for a TD, a 99-yard interception returned for a TD, and gave up an 83-yard punt return TD to the Eagles. They actually outgained the Eagles by 179 yards in that game, but they could not overcome those three non-offensive touchdowns given up.

You can bet that Bill Belichick will have his players’ attention this week. I look for them to respond in a big way as Belichick is one of my favorite coaches to back off a loss. Belichick is 42-23 ATS off one or more consecutive losses as the coach of New England. Belichick is also 15-5 ATS in road games off an upset loss as the coach of the Patriots. Finally, Belichick is 25-12 ATS after allowing 30 points or more as the coach of New England.

Yes, the Texans have won four of their last five games coming in, but it’s come mostly against suspect competition. They did have a good road win over the Bengals, but their three home wins during this stretch have come against Tennessee without Marcus Mariota, the Jets and the struggling Saints. They lost 21-30 on the road to the Buffalo Bills last week, and now they have to face a pissed-off opponent in the Patriots.

The numbers show that the Patriots are far and away the superior team, especially offensively. They average 6.2 yards per play on offense against teams that give up 5.7 per play. Houston only averages 5.2 yards per play on offense against teams that give up 5.7. New England allows 5.4 yards per play defensively against teams that average 5.7. Houston is just behind at 5.5 per play allowed against teams that average 5.7.

Houston head coach Bill O'Brien was the former offensive coordinator of the Patriots.  Houston QB Brian Hoyer was also a former backup to Tom Brady.  So, Belichick and company are very familiar with these two.  They know the tendencies of an O'Brien-coached offense, and they certainly know Hoyer's tendencies.  Also, Houston defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel was behind three Super Bowl-winning defenses in New England.  Look for the Patriots to use the knowledge they have against the Texans, who had some bad news this week when J.J. Watt broke his hand in practice.

The Patriots have obviously had some injuries set them back a little here of late.  But only Julian Edelman has been ruled out, and it's possible that several key players return this week, including LB Dont'a Hightower, S Patrick Chung, and TE Rob Gronkowski.  WR Danny Amendola and TE Scott Chandler are expected to play.  Even with the injuries, it's not like the Patriots are broken.  They scored 24 points against the top-ranked Broncos defense and they put up 28 points and 427 total yards against the Eagles.

New England is 5-1 all-time against Houston with its only loss coming back in 2010 when it rested its starters in Week 16 with a first-round bye already locked up. So we can throw out that game because the Patriots weren’t trying. In their five wins over the Texans during this stretch, the Patriots have outscored them by an average of 16.0 points per game.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ENGLAND) – after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games are 72-34 (67.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. After failing to cover the spread in three straight games, New England is finally back to being undervalued here.  The Patriots are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games following a straight up loss. The Patriots are 72-34-2 ATS in their last 108 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.  Take the Patriots Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Tennessee Titans +7.5

Because the Jets are in the playoff hunt, they are overvalued right now. Because the Titans are out of the playoff hunt, they are undervalued. Contrary to popular belief, teams don’t just pack it in when they’re out of the playoff hunt. The Titans have showed up every week this season, and I look that to continue this week as they give the Jets a run for their money as 7.5-point road underdogs.

Tennessee is a much better team than its 3-9 record would indicate, but it has had some poor fortune in close games this year. Five of its nine losses have come by 6 points or less. That includes a 2-point loss to Indianapolis, a 1-point loss to Buffalo, a 3-point loss to Atlanta, a 6-point loss to Jacksonville and a 3-point loss to Oakland.

But the Titans were finally rewarded with a win last week while thoroughly outplaying the Jaguars despite only beating them 42-39. They racked up 467 total yards while limiting the Jaguars to 383, outgaining them by 84 yards. Marcus Mariota had a great game, throwing for 268 yards and three touchdowns, while also rushing for 112 yards and a score in the win.

New York hasn’t exactly been playing well enough here of late to warrant being a 7.5-point favorite. It has gone 3-4 in its last seven games overall with only one win by more than this 7-point spread, which was a 38-20 win over struggling Miami. The Jets only beat the Jaguars by 5 and the Giants by 3 for their other two wins. They were outgained by 146 yards by the Jaguars, and they needed to erase a 10-point 4th quarter deficit to beat the Giants.

While Mariota is only going to continue to get better to help out this offense, it’s the defense that makes the Titans so underrated. They rank 8th in the NFL in total defense, giving up 336.1 yards per game. They are 9th in the NFL against the pass at 230.6 yards per game. That’s key because the Jets have had to rely on Ryan Fitzpatrick more than they’d like of late. They’ve been held to 90 or fewer rushing yards in five of their last seven games.

The Titans have actually played their best football on the road this season. Two of their three wins have come away from home. They’ve been especially stout defensively in road games, giving up 21.8 points and 308.2 yards per game. Their offense has also held up its end of the bargain in road games, averaging 21.8 points and 340.8 yards per game. They are outgaining teams by 32.6 yards per game on the road this season.

Plays against favorites of of 3.5 to 10 points (NY JETS) – a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a team with a winning percentage of 25% or worse, after 8+ games are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. These marginal winning teams are time and time again overvalued against teams with poor records this late in the season. That is the case in this game as I see it. Tennessee is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 road games off a win against a division opponent.  Also, the Jets are trying to win their 3rd straight game overall, and they haven't won three straight since 2011.  Bet the Titans Sunday.

15* Steelers/Bengals AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +3

The Pittsburgh Steelers are going to be out for revenge on the Cincinnati Bengals. They had them beat in the first meeting, leading 10-6 entering the fourth quarter. But they were outscored 10-0 in the final period. It was Ben Roethlisberger’s first game back from injury after a 4-game absence, and he was rusty, throwing three interceptions in the loss. The Steelers still outgained the Bengals 356-296, or by 60 total yards, and should have won.

Roethlisberger is now healthy and hitting on all cylinders. His four games since have been out of this world. He threw for 334 yards and two touchdowns in a 38-35 win over the Raiders, 379 yards and three touchdowns in a 30-9 win over the Browns, 456 yards and a touchdown in a 30-39 loss to the Seahawks, and 364 yards and four touchdowns in a 45-10 win over the Colts, respectively. He has averaged 383.3 passing yards per game and 10 touchdowns while helping the Steelers to averages of 35.8 points and 529.0 total yards per game in their last four.

The Bengals are not equipped to stop Roethlisberger right now due to the state of their secondary. Starting cornerback Adam Jones has been ruled out with a foot injury that he played through the last two weeks, but cannot any longer. Also, CBs Leon Hall (back) and Josh Shaw (head) are questionable, while starting safety George Iloka (groin) is doubtful.. Fellow CB Darqueze Denard is already on injured reserve.  To say they are short-handed right now would be a massive understatement.

Pittsburgh ranks 7th in the NFL in giving up just 20.0 points per game. This is a bend but don’t break defense that stiffens up in the red zone. Andy Dalton and company have struggled against this defense. In fact, the Steelers have held the Bengals to 21 or fewer points in 12 straight meetings. The Bengals have averaged just 16.2 points per game in those 12 meetings. They held the Bengals to 16 points and 296 total yards in the first meeting this year while intercepting Dalton twice. The Steelers have gone 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this series overall.

While Roethlisberger is primed for a big game against this depleted Cincinnati secondary, look for the running game to also be a huge difference in why the Steelers get revenge in the rematch. DeAngelo Williams hasn’t missed a beat in replacing Le’Veon Bell. He has rushed for 387 yards and added 189 receiving yards over the past four games.  The Steelers average 123 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry on the season. The Bengals are not great against the run as they give up 4.5 yards per rush.

Pittsburgh is 8-1 ATS vs. teams with winning records in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The Steelers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 vs. teams with winning records overall. Pittsburgh is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Steelers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight December games. Pittsburgh is 13-2-1 ATS in its last 16 trips to Cincinnati.  Roll with the Steelers Sunday.

25* AFC West GAME OF THE YEAR on San Diego Chargers +10

I have been backing the Chiefs with a ton of success here of late. They have gone 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall, and I’ve been on them in four of those games. But I know when it’s time to jump off the bandwagon, and this is clearly the week.

The Chiefs haven’t been more than a 4.5-point favorite in any of their six games during this winning streak, but now they’re all of a sudden a 10-point favorite. They have only been more than a 4.5-point favorite once, and that was in a 17-18 home loss as 9-point favorites to the Bears.  This artificial line inflation is necessary for oddsmakers to try and even out the action. They know the betting public is going to be quick to back the Chiefs again, so they purposely set this line higher than it should be to try and get some money on the Chargers to even out the action.

But this is way too many points, especially for a rivalry game in which the Chargers are going to show up for. For starters, they want revenge from a 33-3 home loss to the Chiefs three weeks ago. Secondly, the Chiefs have tried to spoil the Chargers season each of the last two years, and they did so with success last year. But now it’s the Chargers turn to return the favor, and there’s no question they are going to show up this week.

Fans in San Diego are awful, which is why the Chargers have had no home-field advantage this season. The fans know they are likely moving to Los Angeles. But when these San Diego players get to go on the road, it’s kind of a breathe of fresh air to get away from all the craziness at home. They have played some very good football on the road this season.

Yes, the Chargers are only 1-4 on the road this season, but they’ve only been blown out once. They only lost by 5 at Cincinnati, by 7 at Green Bay, and by 3 at Baltimore. In their last road game, the Chargers won 31-25 over the Jaguars as 5-point dogs. I look for them to come through with another great effort on the road and to easily stay within this 10-point margin.  They had the ball late with a chance to win at Cincinnati, and they also had the ball down inside Green Bay's 5-yard line with a chance to force OT late.

The Chiefs have been fortunate to win their last two games. They trailed the Bills 16-7 before outscoring them 23-6 the rest of the way and winning 30-22 at home. They were actually outgained by the Bills in that game. Then, last week, the Raiders gift-wrapped the win for the Chiefs. The Raiders led that game 20-14 before a costly interception deep in KC territory that was nearly returned for a TD. The Chiefs went on to score 20 points over the final 11:17 thanks to Raiders turnovers to win 34-20. But the Chiefs were outgained 232-361 by the Raiders, or by 129 total yards.

The Chargers have outgained the Chiefs in 13 of their last 16 meetings while going 11-5 straight up during that span. Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS CITY) – a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a team with a winning percentage of 25% or less, after 8+ games are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Chargers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a double-digit loss at home. San Diego is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Chargers Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Falcons +7.5

The Carolina Panthers have become a huge public team now with their 12-0 start that has included a 9-3 ATS record. The public is going to continue to back them, and oddsmakers know this, which is why they are forced to tack on a few more points than there should be. That was the case last week as the Panthers were 7-point favorites over the Saints and failed to cover as they won 41-38. It’s the case again this week.

Meanwhile, the betting public wants nothing to do with the Falcons right now because they have lost five straight coming in. So it’s really the perfect storm here. Asking the Panthers to win by 8-plus points to cover this spread is asking too much this week. They are one of the most overvalued teams in the NFL right now.

The Panthers have pretty much locked up a first-round bye already, so it’s inevitable that they are going to be taking their foot off the gas in the coming weeks. They already did last week but got away with it, beating an awful Saints team 41-38. They got away with it because the Saints have a record-setting poor defense.

The Atlanta Falcons are desperate for a win and will be laying it all on the line Sunday to try and turn their season around. They have lost five straight and six of their last seven coming in. But they easily could have won all seven of those games, they just aren’t getting it done late. All six losses came by 10 points or less, including four by 4 points or fewer. So the Falcons really haven’t been blown out all season, which is what it’s going to take for the Panthers to cover this spread.  I don't expect that to happen with how much fight the Falcons will be playing with this week.

The numbers actually indicate that this is a very evenly-matched game, and that the Falcons are still one of the best teams in the NFL. They rank 6th in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 44.2 yards per game on the season. That’s only one spot behind the 5th-place Panthers (+46.8 yards/game). The offense isn’t broken as the Falcons rank 5th at 386.7 yards per game. The defense is also vastly improved this year, ranking 16th at 342.5 yards per game.

The Falcons have gone 0-8 ATS in their last eight games overall. That’s almost unheard of in the NFL, and there’s no question that streak has them undervalued right now. There’s also no question that that streak isn’t going to last a whole lot longer. In fact, there is a great system supporting this play that involves backing teams who have been beaten by the spread by a ton of points in recent games.

Plays on any team (ATLANTA) – after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games are 25-2 (92.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Also, plays on road teams (ATLANTA) – after 5 or more consecutive losses against the spread, in the second half of the season are 24-6 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The road team has won three straight meetings in this series, and the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take the Falcons Sunday.

20* Army/Navy CBS Saturday No-Brainer on UNDER 53

Nothing is certain but death, taxes and Army/Navy going UNDER the total.  The UNDER is 9-0 in the last nine meetings between these teams.  Once again, the oddsmakers have set the bar too high in this 2015 meeting with this 53-point total.  This line is going to continue to drop, so make sure and get your bet in early.

Not only have Army and Navy gone UNDER the total in nine straight, they have finished with 48 or fewer combined points in all nine meetings as well.  They combined for 27 last year with a 55.5-point total.  They have averaged a combined 36.6 points per game in their last nine meetings.  That's nearly 17 points less than this 53-point total.

Numbers can be thrown out the window when these two teams play one another.  That's because it's a rivalry game, and both teams know each other like the back of their hands.  They both run the triple-option, so the defenses are used to it having practiced against their offenses on a daily basis.  There is no trickery when these teams get together.  It's simply who wants it more.

Obviously, when you know two teams are going to run the football almost every play, the clock is going to keep moving without incompletions.  Army averages 4 completions and 8 passing attempts per game, Navy averages 4 completions and 8 attempts per game.  Army runs the ball 52 times per game, Navy runs the ball 58 times per game.

Navy is very good against the run, allowing just 139 rushing yards per game and 3.9 per carry against teams that average 193 yards per game and 4.5 per carry.  Army has been better against the run than the pass.  It allows 163 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry against teams that average 156 yards per game and 4.2 per carry.

Another key here is that Navy is expected to win in a blowout as the line for this game is Navy -22.  So, if Navy gets up big, it's not going to try and run up the scoreboard.  Look the Midshipmen to really slow down the pace of their offense once they get a substantial lead.

Both teams went UNDER the total when they faced another Academy school in Air Force, which also runs the triple-option.  Navy beat Air Force 33-11 for 44 combined points with a 49.5-point total on October 3rd.  Army lost to Air Force 20-3 for 27 combined points with a 50.5-point total.

Army is 7-0 to the UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 9-0 in the last 9 meetings.  Army is 6-0 UNDER in road games after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in its previous game over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Midshipmen's last five neutral site games.  These four trends combined for a perfect 27-0 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in the Army/Navy game Saturday.

20* Vikings/Cardinals NFC ANNIHILATOR on Arizona -7.5

UPDATE: I put this pick out at -7.5 Wednesday afternoon.  I realize it has moved all the way up to -11 in some places as of Thursday afternoon.  If you get -10 or more, it would go down to a 15* play instead of a 20*.  Thanks, Jack.

The Arizona Cardinals are the best team in the NFL in my opinion.  They are 10-2 on the season and working on a six-game winning streak.  Even in their two losses they shouldn't have lost.  They outgained St. Louis by 119 yards in a 22-24 home loss, and Pittsburgh by 159 yards in a 13-25 road loss.  The numbers support my statement that this is the NFL's best team.

The Cardinals rank 1st in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 102.7 yards per game.  That's 32 yards per game better than second-place Seattle.  Arizona ranks 1st in the NFL in total offense at 419.5 yards per game, and 4th in total defense at 316.8 yards per game allowed.

Arizona is coming off its most complete game of the season in a 27-3 win at St. Louis.  The offense racked up a season-high 524 yards, while the defense limited the Rams to just nine first downs and 212 total yards.  It outgained the Rams by a whopping 312 yards for the game.  Carson Palmer continued his amazing season with 356 passing yards and two touchdowns, while David Johnson and Kerwynn Williams combined to rush for 158 yards, proving that they don't miss Andre Ellington and Chris Johnson.

Minnesota faced a similar team to Arizona last week in Seattle and was killed 7-38 at home.  The Vikings were held to a season-low 125 total yards while giving up 413, getting outgained by 308 yards by the Seahawks. Minnesota is one of the most overrated teams in the NFL in my opinion.  In spite of its 8-4 record, it ranks just 23rd in yardage differential, getting outgained by 26.5 yards per game.

The Vikings do not have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Cardinals.  They rank just 30th in the NFL in total offense at 315.8 yards per game.  Teddy Bridgewater has thrown only eight touchdowns against eight interceptions on the season.  When Adrian Peterson doesn't have it going, the Vikings are lost offensively because Bridgewater is a liability.

It's going to be tough sledding again this week for Peterson.  That's because the Cardinals rank 4th in the NFL against the run.  They give up just 89.0 rushing yards per game.  They have held five of their last six opponents to less than 100 rushing yards.  Bridgewater is going to be forced to make more plays this week, and I don't think he's up to the task.

Minnesota's defense is also in shambles right now.  With nose tackle Linval Joseph (foot) out, and linebacker Anthony Barr (groin/hand) and safety Harrison Smith (hamstring/knee) forced to leave the game, Minnesota allowed a season-high 433 total yards - 173 on the ground - against the Seahawks. Those three were among eight Minnesota defensive players whose statuses are uncertain for this contest.  But Joseph, Barr and Smith are all expected to miss this game.

What I really love about this Cardinals team is that they are making a point of finishing strong after last year's collapse, which came without the services of Carson Palmer.  I'd say they made a statement last week against the Rams that they aren't about to let up.

"We're held to a very high standard," said Palmer, second in the NFL with 29 TDs and a 106.3 passer rating. "We're coached extremely hard and we're still shooting for a perfect game ... That hasn't happened yet."

"We're still looking to improve," hard-to-please Cardinals coach Bruce Arians told the team's official website. "I've got to find reasons to holler at them.  There is time to look back on the journey and enjoy it but this isn't it."

Arizona is 50-28 ATS in its last 78 games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 5.65 or more yards per play.  The Cardinals are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 games following a win.  Arizona is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 vs. NFC opponents.  Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-1 straight up in the last nine meetings.  Arizona is 7-0 ATS vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  Bet the Cardinals Thursday.

20* Cowboys/Redskins ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Dallas +4.5

Believe it or not, the Dallas Cowboys are still within striking distance of first place in the NFC East, even with a 3-8 record. They only trail the first-place Redskins (5-6) by two games. Their only hope of winning the division comes with a win this week. So, there’s no question that the Cowboys will be laying it all on the line. They didn’t put Tony Romo on the injured reserve because, if they do make a run and make the playoffs, now it’s possible for him to come back.

”It’s part of our message to provide perspective,” coach Jason Garrett said. ”Often times you have to provide a perspective about where we are, where we are, where we want to go and how we want to do it. So that certainly will be part of the message.”

It’s not like the Cowboys have been awful without Romo. Yes, they are 0-7 without him, but five of those losses came by a touchdown or less. The problem with the Cowboys is that they rank last in the NFL in turnover differential (-12) because they’ve force the fewest turnovers (7) in the league. There is a lot of luck involved with turnovers, and it’s safe to say that the Cowboys have been on the unlucky end of the spectrum up to this point. But this isn’t a bad team.

Dallas will get a mini-bye week to get ready for this game against Washington. That’s because it last played on Thursday against Carolina in a game that quickly turned into a blowout due to two defensive touchdowns by the Panthers. The last time the Cowboys had a bye week, they returned from it to face the Giants on the road. They did lose that game 20-27, but they outplayed the Giants and should have won. They outgained the Giants by 171 yards in that game, but lost the turnover battle 4-0, which was the difference.

When you look at the numbers, you could make the argument that the Cowboys are actually the better team. They rank 16th in the NFL in yardage differential (-0.6 per game) behind a gritty defense that is only giving up 332.0 yards per game. Washington ranks 25th in yardage differential (-27.1 per game), and its defense is allowing 366.6 yards per game. The Cowboys held the Dolphins to 210 total yards two weeks ago and the Panthers to 294 yards last week.

While the Cowboys have had great health this season outside of Romo and are very healthy coming into this one, the Redskins have a lot of injury concerns.  They are without CB Chris Culliver and G Kory Lichtensteiger.  They have a plethora of players questionable with nagging injuries, including DE Chris Baker, S Dashon Goldson, DE Jason Hatcher, LB Perry Riley, LB Keenan Robinson, DE Trenton Robinson, RB Chris Thompson and CB Deshazor Everett.

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON) – after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 50-19 (72.5%) ATS since 1983. Washington is 6-20 ATS in its last 26 home games against teams with a winning percentage between 25% and 40%. The Cowboys are 8-1 ATS in games played on a grass field over the last two seasons. Dallas is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 road games after trailing its previous game by 14 points or more at the half. The Cowboys are 32-17 ATS in their last 49 games following a loss by 14 points or more. The Redskins are 37-63 ATS in their last 100 games as a home favorites.  Bet the Cowboys Monday.

20* NFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Saints +7

It’s now or never for the New Orleans Saints. At 4-7 on the season, the Saints are in must-win mode from here on out if they want any chance of making the playoffs. Look for them to put their best foot forward this week. That’s especially the case now that they have a chance to knock off the unbeaten Carolina Panthers, a division rival. There’s no reason to question their motivation heading into this one as a result.

New Orleans is undervalued right now due to losing three straight, including back-to-back blowout losses to the Redskins and Texans on the road. But the Saints have been much better at home this season. They are 3-2 at home with both of their losses coming by a touchdown or less. They have beaten the Falcons, Cowboys and Giants at home this season. The Superdome remains one of the toughest places to play in the NFL today.

Carolina could not be more overvalued. With its 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS record this season comes expectations from the betting public and oddsmakers that are going to be very tough to live up to here down the stretch. One of the easiest ways to see that the Panthers are laying too many points is to compare this line with their first meeting. The Panthers were 10-point home favorites in their first meeting, and that was only because Drew Brees didn’t play. If Brees would have played, that line would have been in the -4 to -5 range. Now the Panthers are 7-point road favorites in the rematch with a healthy Brees this time, when the line should be around a pick 'em or Saints favored based off the line from the first meeting.

Plus, the Panthers only beat the Saints 27-22 and failed to cover the 10-point spread in their first meeting at home. In fact, the Panthers have only beaten the Saints by more than a touchdown once in the last 11 meetings. That fact alone shows that there’s value in backing the Saints as touchdown home underdogs in this one. The Panthers aren’t going to be lucky in the turnover department forever. They have forced 16 turnovers in their last five games, and they are +10 in turnover differential in their last three games alone. That’s almost unheard of.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW ORLEANS) – after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games where they forced 3 or more turnovers are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Plays on underdogs or pick (NEW ORLEANS) – after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 49 or more points total in their last seven games are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS since 1983.

Sean Payton is 13-2 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 27 or more points per game as the coach of New Orleans. Payton is 21-9 ATS off a road loss as the coach of New Orleans. Payton is also 11-3 ATS against teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better as the coach of the Saints. The Saints are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. New Orleans is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five vs. teams with winning records.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

15* Chiefs/Raiders AFC West ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City -2.5

It would be foolish to bet against the Kansas City Chiefs this week. They simply have something special going right now. They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. Not only are they winning, they are dominating. They have outscored their last five opponents a combined 160-61, or by an average of 19.8 points per game.

The catalyst has been their defense, which has allowed 18 or fewer points in six of their last seven games overall. The lone exception was last week when they gave up 22 points to the Bills. But the offense proved it could hold up its end of the bargain. Trailing 16-7 late in the second quarter, the Chiefs outscored the Bills 23-6 the rest of the way to earn a 30-22 victory.

I really like this matchup for the Chiefs. The Raiders are a pass-heavy offense with one of the worst rushing attacks in the NFL. Well, the Chiefs have been tremendous against the pass during this winning streak, allowing just 195 passing yards per game over their last five contests. The Raiders aren’t exactly flourishing offensively right now. They’ve been held to an average of 17 points per game over their last three. The Raiders haven’t been good defensively all season as they rank 27th in total defense in giving up 391 yards per game.

The Chiefs have won three of their last four meetings with the Raiders, outscoring them by an average of 14.0 points per game in the process. The only exception came last year in a 20-24 road loss. But that was a Thursday night game on a short week. The Chiefs were coming off a huge home win over the Seahawks the previous week, and it was clearly a letdown spot for them. The Raiders were 0-10 entering that game, and they took advantage of a Chiefs team ripe for the upset and won. The Chiefs have a lot more at stake now and will be focused when these teams meet up in Oakland.

What you have to love about the Chiefs when deciding to put your money on them is that they don’t turn the ball over. The haven’t committed a turnover in five straight games, and outside of a 5-turnover effort against the Broncos in Week 2, they have committed a total of three turnovers in their other 10 games combined. The Raiders have committed eight turnovers in their last four games. The road team is 18-6 ATS in the last 24 meetings, and the Chiefs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 trips to Oakland.

The Raiders are one of the worst home teams in the NFL with a 35-62 ATS record in their last 97 home games. Andy Reid has gone 58-42 ATS as a visitor in his career. Oakland is 39-75 ATS in its last 114 games where the line is +3 to -3, and 9-21 ATS in its last 30 games as a home underdog of 3 points or less. Kansas City is 28-14 ATS in its last 42 road games vs. bad defensive teams that allow 24 or more points per game. The Chiefs are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a losing record. The Raiders are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS win.  Roll with the Chiefs Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on San Francisco 49ers +7

I’ve been very impressed with how well Blaine Gabbert has played since taking over for Colin Kaepernick. He threw two touchdown passes in their 17-16 win over the Falcons in his first start. He then held his own against the Seahawks on the road, completing 22 of 34 passes for 264 yards and a touchdown without an interception. Gabbert nearly led the upset of the Cardinals last week, completing 25 of 36 passes for 318 yards with one touchdown and one interception in a 13-19 loss.  Keep in mind that that game was tied 13-13 late in the fourth quarter against one of the NFL's best teams.

The Chicago Bears are way overvalued here as 7-point favorites. They have won five games this season, but four of those wins came by a combined 10 points, so they have only covered this 7-point margin once. Amazingly, the Bears have been an underdog in all 11 games this season. So, this is the first time they’ve been favored all year. You would think they would be a small favorite with that being the case, but instead they are laying a full touchdown.  It's time to fade them now.

This is a huge letdown spot for the Bears. They are coming off their biggest win of the season last week in a 17-13 road win over the Packers, and now I expect them to come out flat off such a big victory. They had no business winning that game anyways as they were outgianed by 75 yards by the Packers. The difference was that they won the turnover battle 2-0, which is rare for a Jay Cutler-quarterbacked team.

The Bears have actually played their best football on the road this season. They have been awful at home, going 1-4 and getting outscored by 7.2 points per game. Their defense has allowed a whopping 27.8 points per game at home this year. That’s not the kind of performance that would warrant the Bears being favored by a touchdown at home.

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CHICAGO) – after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 50-19 (72.5%) ATS since 1983. San Francisco is 8-0 ATS in road games versus poor defensive teams that allow 5.65 or more yards per play over the last three seasons. Chicago is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 home games off a close win by 7 points or less. The Bears are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games in Week 13.  Roll with the 49ers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Cardinals -4

The Arizona Cardinals are the best team in the NFL in my opinion. They have opened 9-2 this year, and their two losses were very fluky. They outgained the Steelers by 159 yards in a 13-25 road loss, and they outgained the Rams by 119 yards in a 22-24 home loss. Now they are going to want revenge on these Rams, who are reeling right now and quickly have fallen out of the playoff race with four straight losses.

The numbers tell the story for me in this one. The Cardinals rank 1st in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 83.6 yards per game. The Rams rank 27th in yardage differential, getting outgained by 37.0 yards per game. Arizona is an elite team on both sides of the football. It ranks 1st in total offense at 410.0 yards per game, and 5th in total defense at 326.4 yards per game.  The Cardinals are outscoring teams by 11.5 points per game thanks to an offense that is putting up 32.3 points per game.

St. Louis has an average defense, giving up 341.0 yards per game, but it is atrocious offensively. It ranks 31st in the NFL in total offense at 304.0 yards per game, and it is scoring just 16.9 points per game. The Rams just haven’t gotten anything from the quarterback position. Nick Foles has thrown seven touchdowns against nine interceptions this year. Case Keenum has only completed 46.2 percent of his passes this season. Whoever is under center against the Cardinals won’t be able to do enough to keep up with them in this one.

Arizona is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with St. Louis. It won by 20, 17 and 6 points in the three previous meetings before losing 22-24 at home to the Rams back on October 4th in their first meeting this year. But that was a fluky loss because the Cardinals outgained the Rams 447-328 for the game. Carson Palmer threw for 352 yards on this Rams’ defense, but the Cardinals lost the turnover battle 3-0, which was the difference. The Rams won’t be so fortunate in the rematch.

The Rams are facing a lot of turmoil right now. Their 4-game losing streak has them out of the playoff hunt, and there are rumors that the team has quit on Jeff Fisher. That’s hard to argue give their recent performances. They lost at home 13-37 to the Bears three weeks ago and were outgained by 112 yards. They lost 13-16 on the road to the Ravens two weeks ago in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score as they were outgained by 175 yards. They then lost last week to the Bengals 7-31 on the road and showed no fight.

Foles is expected to to get the start.  But the Rams have some worries on defense as well.  They are expected to be without arguably their best player in DE Robert Quinn.  Also, starting CB Trumaine Johnson is doubtful for this one.  That's not good news going up against the league's top offense this weekend.

Arizona stumbled down the stretch of the regular season last year and let Seattle come back and win the division.  These players are making a point of not letting that happen again, so I love their mindset coming into this one.  Captain Patrick Peterson called a defense-only meeting to go over mistakes from last weekend. The Cardinals are trying to stay on track after losing four of six to close 2014.  ''We're all reminded of last year,'' safety Tyrann Mathieu said. ''We don't want to have that relapse again. It's very important for us to stay focused, continue to find ways to win games.''

Arizona is 8-1 ATS after allowing 300 or more passing yards in its previous game over the last three seasons. The Cardinals are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Arizona is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games following an ATS loss. The Cardinals are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 road games overall. The Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Cardinals Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Cleveland Browns +10

The first time these teams played this season, the Bengals opened as 11-point home favorites. It was eventually bet up to 13 as everyone was on the Bengals. Now this line opened at Bengals -10, and it has since been bet down to 9.5. Considering there should be about a 6-point swing for home/away, the Bengals should have opened around a 5-point favorite in this game. Instead, I believe we are now getting value on the Browns here as 10-point home dogs.

This is a division rivalry game, so despite their 2-9 record, the Browns are going to show up. They would love to beat the top team in their division. I believe a big reason this line is so high is because Austin Davis is supposed to start. But Davis is better than he gets credit for, and Johnny Manziel has started the last two games against the Bengals, and he has been awful in both starts. Davis is only going to be an upgrade.

Davis replaced an injured Josh McCown against the Ravens when the Browns were down 27-20. He tied the game with 1:47 to play with a 42-yard touchdown pass to Travis Benjamin. Then, after an interception by the defense, Davis drove the Browns down to set them up for a potential game-winning field goal. Unfortunately, that kick was blocked and returned for a TD by the Ravens, but Davis did all he could to help the Browns win. He finished 7 of 10 for 77 yards and a touchdown. Remember, Davis played well for the Rams last season when forced into duty and even beat the Seahawks, so he has starting experience.

The betting public is quick to back the Bengals because they have the best ATS record (9-1-1) in the NFL. The public is quick to fade the Browns because they have going 0-6 SU & 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. This public perception has created an artificially inflated line here as oddsmakers are forced to set the number higher than it should be just to try and get some money on the Browns to offset the lopsided public action on the Bengals.

This is also a potential letdown spot for the Bengals, who know they can clinch the AFC North with a win over Pittsburgh next week. The Bengals won’t be motivated at all to face a Browns team that they’ve already beaten with that huge game against the Steelers on deck. Keep in mind that Cincinnati only led Cleveland 17-10 in the 4th quarter in their first meeting before tacking on two touchdowns in the final period.

It's also worth noting that Cincinnati TE Tyler Eifert scored three touchdowns against the Browns in their first meeting.  Well, that's big because Eifert is listed as doubtful to play this week with a stinger, and he's a huge part of their offense.  In fact, he has a team-high 12 touchdown receptions on the season.  The rest of the Bengals' receivers have a combined 11 touchdown receptions.  His loss cannot be overstated.

Plays on underdogs or pick (CLEVELAND) – poor rushing team (3.5 YPR or less) against a poor rushing defense (4.5 YPR or more) after 8+ games, after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games are 25-4 (86.2%) ATS since 1983.

Home-field advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 6-2 straight up in the last eight meetings. The underdog is 13-3-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings as well. The Browns are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Cincinnati is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 road games vs. excellent punt return teams who average 12 or more yards per return. Look out for Travis Benjamin in the return game in this one as he’s simply a game-changer.  Take the Browns Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Falcons +1

The Atlanta Falcons have had a nightmarish run here since opening 5-0. They have lost four straight and five of their six games since. Three of those losses came by a combined seven points. They certainly are a better team than they’ve shown, but they’ve simply been done in by turnovers. They have committed a combined 16 turnovers in their last six games and are -8 in turnover differential during this span. That has been the difference.

Matt Ryan isn’t known as being a quarterback who has turnover problems, so I believe it has been more of an aberration than anything. Look for the Falcons to shore up the turnovers sooner rather than later, which will result in them getting back in the win column often in the coming games. Because when you look at everything else about this team, it’s easy to see that the Falcons are one of the best teams in the NFL.

Indeed, the Falcons rank 3rd in the league in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 54.4 yards per game. The top seven teams in yardage differential are the Cardinals, Broncos, Falcons, Patriots, Seahawks, Panthers, and Bengals in that order, so they are in some elite company. They are 5th in total offense at 392.8 yards per game, and they are 11th in total defense at 338.4 yards per game. Dan Quinn has made this a vastly improved defensive team this season.

Atlanta had outscored Tampa Bay a combined 83-31 in two meetings last year before losing 20-23 (OT) at home in their first meeting this season. But that was about as fluky a loss as you could have. The Falcons outgained the Bucs 496-290 for the game, or by 206 total yards. You won’t find many instances where an NFL team outgained an opponent by 200-plus yards and lost. So, now it’s time for payback for the Falcons, who were -4 in turnover differential in the first meeting.

The Bucs have not played well at home this year. They are 2-3 at home, getting outscored by 9.0 points per game and giving up 29.6 points per game. Their only two home wins came 38-31 over Jacksonville and 10-6 over Dallas. They needed a last-minute touchdown to beat the Cowboys, who were still without Tony Romo at that time.

The Falcons will get a big boost to their offense this week with the return of Devonta Freeman.  He sat out last week due to a concussion.  Freeman is one of the best backs in the NFL, rushing for 764 yards and nine touchdowns, while also catching 48 balls for 420 yards and two scores.  This offense certainly missed him last week, but they'll get back to being dominant on this side of the ball with him back.

While the Falcons are very healthy right now, the Bucs are not.  LB Bruce Carter, DT Gerald McCoy, T Gosder Cherilus, WR Vincent Jackson, DE George Johnson and G Ali Marpet are all questionable.  Starting TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins is doubtful with a shoulder injury.

Atlanta is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games following four or more consecutive losses. The Falcons are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. The Buccaneers are 17-38-1 ATS in their last 56 home games. The Falcons are 38-13-1 ATS in their last 52 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

Due to going 0-7 ATS in its last seven games overall, Atlanta is also undervalued here, and there are several trends that support that theory.  Plays on road teams (ATLANTA) - after 5 or more consecutive losses against the spread, in the second half of the season are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ATLANTA) - after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games are 72-33 (68.8%) ATS over the last 10 years.  Take the Falcons Sunday.

15* UNC/Clemson ACC Championship ANNIHILATOR on Clemson -4

Fading Clemson has been a very profitable move here down the stretch.  It is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.  I have faded Clemson in three of those games as they failed to cover as 12.5-point favorites in a 10-point win over Florida State, as 30-point favorites in a 10-point win at Syracuse, and as 29-point favorites in a 20-point home win over Wake Forest.

The Tigers were clearly overvalued down the stretch because they were the No. 1 team in the country.  But now I believe the price is right to back them as only 4-point favorites in the ACC Championship Game against North Carolina.  They have simply come too far to lose now, and this is the smallest favorites they've been since their win over Notre Dame.

But most importantly, I believe Clemson is actually the better team.  It is outgaining its ACC opponents by 272 yards per game behind an explosive offense that is putting up 38.0 points and 536.2 yards per game.  Its defense is only giving up 19.0 points and 264.7 yards per game in ACC play as well.

North Carolina had a great season, but it took advantage of playing in one of the worst divisions in the country in the ACC Coastal and avoiding the top three teams from the Atlantic in Clemson, FSU and Louisville.  Yet, the Tar Heels only outgained their ACC opponents by 80 yards per game this season.  A lot has been made of UNC's improved defense, but it is still a below-average unit that actually allows 28 more yards per game than its opponents average on the season.

Common opponents are a great way to compare teams, too.  These teams have five opponents in common.  Clemson is 5-0 against them outscoring them by 23.4 points per game and outgaining them by a whopping 295 yards per game.  UNC is 4-1 against those same five teams, outscoring them by 17.6 points per game but outgaining them by only 74.2 yards per game.  Those numbers clearly indicate that the Tigers are by far the superior team.

The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games.  Clemson is 25-11 ATS in its last 36 road games after gaining 475 or more total yards in its previous game.  Dabo Swinney is 8-1 ATS in road games after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in their previous game as the coach of Clemson.  Swinney is 12-4 ATS in road games after scoring 37 or more points as the coach of the Tigers.  Clemson has won seven of the last nine meetings while totaling 109 points in the last two meetings.  The Tigers beat North Carolina 50-35 at home last year.  Roll with Clemson Saturday.

20* Michigan State/Iowa Big Ten Championship No-Brainer on Michigan State -3

The Iowa Hawkeyes had their best regular season in school history with a 12-0 season.  It came out of nowhere as the Hawkeyes were picked to finish in the middle of the pack in the Big Ten West Division.  They deserve a lot of credit for running the table as they played very well all season and handled their business.  But their dream of making the four-team playoff will not come true as they finally face a real test in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Iowa took advantage of a very week schedule this season.  It avoided the best four teams from the Big Ten East in Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State.  It played in the Big Ten West, which was the worst division among the Power 5 conferences in my opinion.  They only beat one team that is currently ranked, which was Northwestern, which lost 38-0 to Michigan on the road.

In fact, the Hawkeyes' schedule was so easy that it was actually favored in 11 of its 12 games this season despite not having many expectations coming in.  The only game it was an underdog in, it won 10-6 at Wisconsin.  But the Hawkeyes should have never won that game.  They were outgained 221-320 by Wisconsin, or by 99 total yards.  The Badgers committed four turnovers, including one on the Iowa 1-yard line as they were going in for what would have been the game-winning score.  The Badgers are down this season anyways, so that's not as good of a win as it would have been in year's past for the Hawkeyes.

Heck, Nebraska was supposed to contend for a Big Ten West title, and it was down this season as well.  The Huskers finished just 5-7, but they arguably outplayed Iowa despite losing 20-28 last week.  Nebraska outgained Iowa 433-250 for the game, but again it committed four turnovers, one of which was returned for a touchdown to gift-wrap the victory for the Hawks.  Are you seeing a trend here?  Iowa needs to create turnovers to win games.

But Michigan State isn't the type of team that's going to gift-wrap the game for Iowa.  The Spartans play sound football in all phases and take care of the ball.  In fact, they have committed just 11 turnovers in 12 games this season, which is obviously less than one per game.  For Iowa to have any chance, it is going to have to win the turnover battle, but I don't see that happening against Mark Dantonio's well-coached Spartans.

While Iowa played a cake schedule, Michigan State earned its trip to the Big Ten Championship by winning one of the best divisions in the country in the Big Ten East.  It played Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State and beat all three.  It even beat both Ohio State and Michigan on the road, while thumping Penn State at home 55-16 last week.  Many will say that the Spartans were lucky to beat Michigan, but they outplayed the Wolverines in that game and outgained them by 156 yards, so I beg to differ.

Michigan State also played Oregon out of conference, which was a much tougher game than any non-conference game that Iowa played.  Iowa's toughest non-conference game came at home against Pittsburgh, and it needed a 57-yard field goal on the last play to beat the Panthers.  Michigan State played its best against its best opponents, holding Oregon, Michigan and Ohio State to 207 yards per game below their season averages.  In Iowa's two biggest games, it was outgained by 183 yards by Nebraska and 99 yards by Wisconsin.

Yes, Michigan State lost to Nebraska 39-38 on the road, but only because of a questionable call at the end of the game.  Unlike Iowa, Michigan State actually did whatever it wanted to offensively against Nebraska, gaining 491 total yards behind 335 yards and four passing touchdowns from Connor Cook.

I simply trust Cook more than Iowa's C.J. Beathard here.  Cook is a senior quarterback who has been in numerous big games before, while Beathard is a first-year starter who hasn't been tested much with the game on the line.  That's because the Hawkeyes have never trailed in the 4th quarter of any game this season.  I believe the Hawkeyes will be trailing in the 4th quarter of this one, and Beathard won't have the goods to deliver because he hasn't been in that situation before, and he certainly hasn't played in as many big games as Cook.

This is a great matchup for the Spartans.  They boast an elite run defense that gives up 118 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry against opponents that average 193 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry.  Stopping the run will be key because Iowa averages 42 rushing attempts and 204 yards per game, compared to 26 passing attempts and 201 yards per game.  Look for Michigan State to stop the running game and take Iowa out of its comfort zone, having to lean on Beathard more than they're used to in this one.

While Iowa has struggled down the stretch in winning three of its last four games by a touchdown or less, Michigan State has saved its best football for last, especially defensively.  The Spartans held Maryland to 7 points, 289 yards and forced five turnovers three weeks ago, then held Ohio State's high-powered attack to just 14 points and 152 total yards two weeks ago, then forced four more turnovers and held Penn State to 16 points last week.  I simply believe the Spartans are playing the better football coming into this one, and a lot of that has to do with the fact that they are finally near full strength health-wise for the first time all year.

These teams have four common opponents this season.  Michigan State is averaging 424.8 yards per game and giving up 369.5 yards per game against those four teams, outgaining them by 55.3 yards per game.  Iowa is averaging 349.3 yards per game and allowing 371.5 yards per game against those four teams, actually getting outgained by 22.2 yards per game.  Common opponents suggest that the Spartans are the better team as well.

Iowa's strength defensively is stopping the run as well, but that won't be as much of a factor in this game as it is against most teams.  That's because Michigan State is a primary passing team behind Cook.  The senior has been superb, throwing for 2,720 yards and 24 touchdowns against only four interceptions this season.  He should have a big day against an Iowa defense that has been susceptible against good passing offenses.  The Hawkeyes allowed 317 passing yards to Illinois, 301 to Minnesota, 268 to Purdue and 296 to Nebraska, and the latter three games have come over the past three weeks.

Michigan state is 7-0 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning percentage of greater than 75% over the last three seasons.  The Spartans are 7-0 ATS in road games vs. good teams that outscore opponents by 10-plus points per game over the last three years.  Michigan State is 9-0 ATS after having won four or five of its last six games over the past two seasons.  The Spartans are 6-0 ATS in their last six neutral site games.  These four trends combine for a perfect 29-0 system backing the Spartans.  Take Michigan State Saturday.

25* Conference Championship GAME OF THE YEAR on Southern Miss +7.5

The Southern Miss Golden Eagles may be the single-most underrated team in all of college football.  They went 9-3 straight up and 10-2 against the spread for bettors who were willing to back them this season.  They also went 7-1 within the conference and won the C-USA West Title for the right to play in the conference championship game.

But the betting public still hasn't caught on to how good this team really is.  It's easy to see why considering Southern Miss went a combined 4-32 over the previous three seasons before this impressive 2015 campaign.  But the numbers don't lie, the Golden Eagles are the best team in Conference USA and should not be an underdog to the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers in the championship game.

Common opponents are my favorite way to compare teams.  Southern Miss and WKU had five common opponents this season.  Southern Miss outscored those five opponents by an average of 25.6 points per game and outgained them by an average of 248.2 yards per game.  Western Kentucky outscored those five opponents by 23.0 points per game and outgained them by 179.6 yards per game.  That right there shows that the Golden Eagles are the better team in my book.

Southern Miss has only gotten better as the season has gone on, too.  It has won each of its last six games all by 21 points or more.  The one game that really stands out to me was last week against Louisiana Tech with the C-USA West title on the line.  Southern Miss went on the road and beat the Bulldogs 58-24 as 5-point underdogs.  They Golden Eagles racked up 555 total yards and outgained the Bulldogs by 150 for the game.

Louisiana Tech is a common opponent between these teams, and the best team from Conference USA that either faced all season.  Western Kentucky faced LA Tech at home, yet only won 41-38 as 2.5-point underdogs.  The Hilltoppers allowed 580 total yards to Louisiana Tech in that game and were fortunate to win.

I really like the balance of this Southern Miss offense, too.  It is averaging 195 rushing yards per gam eand 5.3 per carry, while also putting up 340 passing yards per game and 8.8 yards per attempt.  That's an average of 535 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play.  The Golden Eagles are vastly improved on defense, too, giving up 22.4 points per game, 351.0 yards per game and 5.1 per play.  Western Kentucky is a worse defensive team, allowing 25.0 points, 393 yards per game and 5.5 per play.

Southern Miss is 8-0 ATS off one or more consecutive overs over the last two seasons.  The Golden Eagles are 27-12 ATS in their last 39 road games off a win by 21 points or more.  Southern Miss is 16-3 ATS in its last 19 games after gaining 475 or more total yards per game over its last three games.  The Hilltoppers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Golden Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.  Bet Southern Miss Saturday.

20* NIU/Bowling Green MAC Championship No-Brainer on UNDER 70

The Northern Illinois Huskies are down to their third-string quarterback now in true freshman Tommy Fiedler.  He played late in the second half against Ohio last week after Ryan Graham went down with a leg injury in the third quarter.  Graham had taken the place of Drew Hare before him.

It's safe to say that this Northern Illinois offense is only a shell of what it was with Hare at quarterback.  Graham played admirably, but he's no Hare.  And Fiedler is worse than Graham.  Fiedler actually came to Northern Illinois as a fifth-string quarterback, but Antony Maddie and fellow freshman Daniel Santacaterina also are dealing with injuries.

"We feel good where Tommy's at," NIU head coach Rod Carey said. "If we could have everybody healthy would we choose Tommy? Probably not. But Tommy is ready for it and he's excited about it."

The good news is that NIU is a primary running team anyways, averaging 48 rushing attempts and 213 yards per game.  Look for the NIU offense to take its time, run the football, and try and shorten this game as much as possible.  It knows that it stands no chance against Bowling Green's high-powered offense in a shootout.  That strategy for the Huskies is going to help aid this under.

Northern Illinois can rely on a defense that gives up 24.8 points, 392 yards per game and 5.0 per play against opponents that average 26.8 points, 395 yards per game and 5.6 per play.  So, the Huskies have an above-average defense as they are holding opponents to 0.6 yards per play less than they average on the season.

Bowling Green is actually an above-average defensive team that doesn't get much credit on that side of the ball.  It is allowing 5.4 yards per play against opponents that average 5.5 per play on offense.  The Falcons have been much better defensively of late, giving up 27 or fewer points in five of their last six games overall, including 10 or fewer in three of those.

What really stands out to me is the head-to-head history in this series.  The Falcons and Huskies have combined for 68 or fewer points in nine of their last 10 meetings, which is a 9-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this total set of 70 points.  They have combined to average 50.2 points per game in their last 10 meetings, which is roughly 20 points less than this 70-point total as well.

Bowling Green is 6-0 to the UNDER against good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game over the last two seasons.  Northern Illinois is 9-1 to the UNDER in its last 10 games as a neutral field underdog.  The Falcons are 12-2 to the UNDER after having won three of their last four games over the past three seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Packers/Lions NFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Green Bay -3

The advanced line on this game last Tuesday was Packers -6. But with the Packers losing to the Bears last week and the Lions crushing the Eagles, this line has been bet all the way down to Packers -3. There is a lot of action on the Lions coming into this one, and I believe it’s an overreaction to last week’s results. The value is now with the Packers laying only a field goal here.

Green Bay has lost four of its last five games overall to fall out of first place in the NFC North. It now trails Minnesota by one game and needs a win this week to get back on track. When you look at the recent losses to the Lions and Bears, it’s clear that the Packers outplayed both teams and should have won. They outgained the Lions 372-287 for the game, or by 85 total yards, in a 16-18 loss. They also outgained the Bears 365-290, or by 75 total yards, in a 13-17 loss.

As you can see, the Packers are dominating defensively of late. They have held their last three opponents to an average of 16.0 points and 306.0 yards per game. Now, it’s up to Aaron Rodgers and offense to hold up their end of the bargain. I believe they will in perfect conditions this week inside Ford Field. It’s not like the Lions are all of a sudden an elite defensive team as they still allow 26.2 points per game this year.

Rodgers called out his teammates on offense for not studying the playbook enough. You can bet that after losing the way they did to the Bears with Brett Favre’s jersey getting retired, and Bart Starr being in attendance, that loss did not sit well with these players. Look for a much more focused, prepared and determined Packers team to hit the field Thursday night. That’s especially the case now that they trail the Vikings in the division, and the fact that they want revenge on the Lions.

Detroit is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 games vs. teams who commit one or less turnovers per game in the second half of the season. The Packers are 36-19 ATS in their last 55 games following a loss by 6 points or less. Green Bay is 59-36 ATS in its last 95 December games. The Lions are 12-32 ATS in their last 44 games after having won three of their last four games coming in. The Packers are 40-19 ATS in their last 59 vs. NFC North opponents. The Lions are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 December games.  Bet the Packers Thursday.

20* Ravens/Browns ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Cleveland -2.5

Just about every factor heading into this game favors the Browns laying 2.5 points against the Ravens. I cannot think of one good reason to back the Ravens in this one at this current price. I fully expect the Browns to win this game by at least a field goal, and likely more given everything that’s working in their favor.

For starters, Baltimore is going to be without its three best players on offense. Quarterback Joe Flacco suffered a torn ACL against the Rams last week and is out for the season. Leading rusher Justin Forsett broke his arm against the Rams and is also out for the year. Leading receiver Steve Smith suffered a torn Achilles a few weeks back and is done for the season as well. It’s just too hard to overcome these types of injuries when you’re already not that good.

Secondly, the Browns have had two full weeks to prepare for the Ravens. That should help them regroup and refocus after losing five straight games coming into this one. There’s no question that this team is undervalued right now due to failing to cover the spread in each of their last four games. But they’ve faced a very difficult schedule during this stretch with three road games at Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and St. Louis, as well as a home meeting with Arizona. They finally can catch their breath here against a much lesser opponent in the Ravens.

Third, it was a blessing in disguise for Johnny Manziel to be out partying last weekend. He has now been demoted as the starter, and in his place will be Josh McCown, who is now healthy after the bye week. This offense has been so much better with McCown under center. He is completing 65.0 percent of his passes for 1,897 yards with 11 touchdowns against four interceptions while averaging 7.5 yards per attempt.

McCown had a monster day in a 33-30 road win over Baltimore back on October 11 in their first meeting of the season. This game wasn’t as close as the final score as the Browns outgained the Ravens 505-377, or by 128 total yards. McCown threw for a career-high 457 yards and two touchdowns in the win. He should be able to find more success this week against this struggling Baltimore defense.

The Ravens are 1-7-2 ATS in all games this season. Baltimore is 0-7-1 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a losing record. Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last five games vs. losing teams. The Browns are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings with the Ravens.  Bet the Browns Monday.

25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Falcons -1

The Atlanta Falcons have lost three straight and desperately need a win to get back on track as they are clinging on to the final wild card spot in the NFC.  I look for them to put forth their most inspired effort of the season Sunday at home against the Minnesota Vikings.  In fact, this is my favorite play of the entire 2015 season, which is why it has earned the 25* GAME OF THE YEAR title.

Atlanta's last three losses have all come by three points or less and by a combined seven points.  They have beaten themselves by committing eight turnovers, most of which are on Matt Ryan's shoulders.  But this guy takes care of the football, and I believe it has been more of an aberration than anything.

The numbers show that the Falcons are still one of the best teams in the NFL.  Indeed, they rank 4th in the league in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 63.8 yards per game.  Only the Cardinals, Patriots and Seahawks have been better, and teams like the Broncos (5th), Panthers (6th) and Bengals (7th) are right below them, so it's safe to say that they are in elite company with this all-important yardage differential stat.

The Falcons still boast an elite offense that ranks 4th in the NFL at 399.5 yards per game.  But it's the improvement they've made defensively under the guidance of head coach Dan Quinn that had made the biggest difference.  The Falcons rank a very respectable 11th in the NFL in total defense at 335.7 yards per game, which is only one spot behind the 10th-place Vikings (334.9 YPG).

Minnesota could not possibly be more overvalued right now.  It is 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS this season and the betting public has taken notice.  Heck, the Vikings were even favored over the Packers last week as the oddsmakers over-adjusted.  The Packers won that game 30-13, and now the Vikings are in a serious hangover spot here from that defeat.  But somehow they are nearly favored against the Falcons here, and this -1/+1 line indicates the Vikings would be favored on a neutral field.  Atlanta is the better team, so the oddsmakers have that wrong.

Minnesota actually ranks in the bottom half of the league in yardage differential, getting outgained by 4.9 yards per game on the season.  That's right, the Vikings have somehow managed to go 7-3 despite getting outgained on the year.  They are clearly frauds, and their 29th-ranked offense (330.0 yards/game) leaves a lot to be desired.

Teddy Bridgewater has an 8-to-6 TD/INT ratio this season and is pretty much a liability.  The Vikings rely mostly on the run to move the football, which makes this an excellent matchup for the Falcons.  Indeed, the Falcons rank 1st in the league against the run, giving up just 87.4 yards per game and 3.5 per carry this season.  This couldn't possibly a worse matchup for Adrian Peterson and the Vikings.

Because they are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall, the Falcons couldn't possibly be more undervalued right now, either.  Now all they have to do is win the game at home to cover the number because there are essentially no points involved.  This is an absolute gift from oddsmakers, so do not be shy with your wagers.  It's also worth noting that the home team has won four of the last five meetings.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Illinois +3.5

The Illinois Fighting Illini have done a great job of getting into bowl contention this season despite all of the turmoil with the firing of their head coach.  At 5-6, they need one more win to get bowl eligible, so they will certainly be laying it all on the line this week against Northwestern.

Despite being 5-6 compared to 9-2 for Northwestern, I would actually argue that Illinois is the better team this season.  Its offense averages 5.0 yards per play against defenses that give up 5.1 per play, and its defense gives up 4.9 per play against offenses that average 5.5 per play.  So the Fighting Illini actually have a great defense that is allow 0.6 yards per play less than their opponents average.

Northwestern's offense is atrocious, averaging just 4.5 yards per play against opponents that give up 5.3 per play.  The Wildcats do have a great defense that allows 4.5 per play against opponents that average 5.4 per play.  But it's clear that the Fighting Illini have faced the more difficult schedule this season.

Northwestern is the most overrated team in the country in my opinion.  It is ranked 17th despite the fact that the Football Power Index shows that it is just the 55th-best team in the country when you factor in all the numbers.  But the Wildcats are overvalued due to their fluke win over Wisconsin last week.  The Badgers had three touchdowns called back by penalties and committed five turnovers, yet still only lost 7-13.

That sets the Wildcats up for a huge letdown spot here.  They are coming off that big win over the Badgers, but they still can't win the Big Ten West because Iowa already clinched it.  The Wildcats want to have a 10-win season, but they'll get their chance in the bowl game.  The fact of the matter is that Illinois simply wants this game more just to get bowl eligible.

Illinois has won three of its last five meetings with Northwestern with one of its losses coming by a field goal.  The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Fighting Illini are 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games.  Take Illinois Saturday.

20* Penn State/Michigan State Side & Total PARLAY on Penn State +10.5/UNDER 45

The Spartans are way overvalued now after upsetting the Ohio State Buckeyes last week. Sure, they have a lot to play for as a win will get them into the Big Ten Championship Game, but that’s also a lot of pressure on them. I don’t believe they should be double-digit favorites over a Penn State squad that is more than capable of hanging with the Spartans for four quarters in this one.

This line indicates the Connor Cook is going to be playing Saturday even though he’s listed as questionable. He actually missed the Ohio State game with a shoulder injury, which makes the Spartans’ upset that much more impressive. But that game went exactly the way the Spartans needed it to for them to pull the upset.

Indeed, the Spartans made a conscious effort to control the football with their running game, and they did just that by holding onto the ball for a whopping 38 minutes, 10 seconds. They won in spite of awful QB play from backups O’Connor and Terry, who combined for 8 of 16 passing for 91 yards and a touchdown. Whether or not Cook plays, this offense is so limited that it’s going to be hard to put away the Nittany Lions by double-digits.

Penn State comes in undervalued due to failing to cover the spread in four of their last five games overall. They had their chances against Michigan last week, but had to settle for two short field goals of 18 and 24 yards in the 4th quarter, which was the difference in a 16-28 loss.

While the Nittany Lions haven’t been great offensively, they do have a defense that keeps them in ball games. In fact, they have the slightly better defense in this one. They give up 18.6 points, 315.1 yards per game and 4.6 per play against opposing offenses that average 27.9 points, 379 yards per game and 5.5 per play.

Home-field advantage has meant very little in this series. Indeed, the road team is 3-0 straight up in the last three meetings. Also, the road team has only lost by more than 4 points once in the last seven meetings. James Franklin is 7-0 ATS off two or more consecutive ATS losses in all games he has coached.

Plays against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MICHIGAN ST) – hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, a top-level team (winning at least 80%) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 55-23 (70.5%) ATS since 1992. Penn State is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games after failing to cover the spread in five or six of its last seven games coming in.

I also like the UNDER because I think Michigan State is going to implement the same gameplan as it did against Ohio State.  It will try and grind this one out with its running game to shorten the game and keep it in its favor.  Because they held the ball for over 38 minutes last week against Ohio State, they were able to hold the Buckeyes to just 152 yards of total offense.  The Buckeyes barely saw the field offensively.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (MICHIGAN ST) - after allowing 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game against opponent after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game are 29-7 (80.6%) over the last 10 seasons.  The UNDER is 6-2 in Nittany Lions last eight road games.  The UNDER is 5-2 in Spartans last sevne home games.  The UNDER is 9-4 in Spartans last 13 games in November.  Bet Penn State and the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Penn State/Michigan State Side & Total PARLAY on Penn State +10.5/UNDER 45

The Spartans are way overvalued now after upsetting the Ohio State Buckeyes last week. Sure, they have a lot to play for as a win will get them into the Big Ten Championship Game, but that’s also a lot of pressure on them. I don’t believe they should be double-digit favorites over a Penn State squad that is more than capable of hanging with the Spartans for four quarters in this one.

This line indicates the Connor Cook is going to be playing Saturday even though he’s listed as questionable. He actually missed the Ohio State game with a shoulder injury, which makes the Spartans’ upset that much more impressive. But that game went exactly the way the Spartans needed it to for them to pull the upset.

Indeed, the Spartans made a conscious effort to control the football with their running game, and they did just that by holding onto the ball for a whopping 38 minutes, 10 seconds. They won in spite of awful QB play from backups O’Connor and Terry, who combined for 8 of 16 passing for 91 yards and a touchdown. Whether or not Cook plays, this offense is so limited that it’s going to be hard to put away the Nittany Lions by double-digits.

Penn State comes in undervalued due to failing to cover the spread in four of their last five games overall. They had their chances against Michigan last week, but had to settle for two short field goals of 18 and 24 yards in the 4th quarter, which was the difference in a 16-28 loss.

While the Nittany Lions haven’t been great offensively, they do have a defense that keeps them in ball games. In fact, they have the slightly better defense in this one. They give up 18.6 points, 315.1 yards per game and 4.6 per play against opposing offenses that average 27.9 points, 379 yards per game and 5.5 per play.

Home-field advantage has meant very little in this series. Indeed, the road team is 3-0 straight up in the last three meetings. Also, the road team has only lost by more than 4 points once in the last seven meetings. James Franklin is 7-0 ATS off two or more consecutive ATS losses in all games he has coached.

Plays against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MICHIGAN ST) – hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, a top-level team (winning at least 80%) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 55-23 (70.5%) ATS since 1992. Penn State is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games after failing to cover the spread in five or six of its last seven games coming in.

I also like the UNDER because I think Michigan State is going to implement the same gameplan as it did against Ohio State.  It will try and grind this one out with its running game to shorten the game and keep it in its favor.  Because they held the ball for over 38 minutes last week against Ohio State, they were able to hold the Buckeyes to just 152 yards of total offense.  The Buckeyes barely saw the field offensively.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (MICHIGAN ST) - after allowing 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game against opponent after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game are 29-7 (80.6%) over the last 10 seasons.  The UNDER is 6-2 in Nittany Lions last eight road games.  The UNDER is 5-2 in Spartans last sevne home games.  The UNDER is 9-4 in Spartans last 13 games in November.  Bet Penn State and the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State +14

The Iowa State Cyclones are probably the best 3-win team in the country.  They have a number of heartbreaking losses this season, not the least of which have come the last two weeks.  They blew a 24-7 lead to Oklahoma State and lost 31-35.  They also blew a 35-14 lead to Kansas State and lost 35-38.

Those two results led to the firing of head coach Paul Rhoads.  But the school was nice enough to let Rhoads coach out the season, and now this will be his final game with the Cyclones.  These players love Rhoads, and they have to be disappointed that they didn't get the job done for him in close games this year.  But they have one final chance to reward him with a win, and I look for them to be laying it all on the line for him against West Virginia this weekend.

The Mountaineers come in overvalued due to having covered the spread in their last two contests.  They won 38-20 over Texas, but they were outgained by 60 yards by the Longhorns.  This game was much closer than the final score showed, but the Longhorns gave it away by committing five turnovers.  Iowa State beat Texas 24-0 a few weeks back and outgained the Longhorns by 222 total yards.

Iowa State has played West Virginia extremely tough in their three meetings as Big 12 opponents.  All three were decided by 13 points or less, and the road team is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  Iowa State won 52-44 (OT) as 7.5-point road dogs in 2013.  Last year, it was a 27-24 game in the fourth quarter before the Mountaineers outscored the Cyclones 10-0 in the final period to win 37-24.  No question the Cyclones want revenge from that game as well.

West Virginia is 1-10 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last two seasons.  The Cyclones are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Iowa State is 4-1 ATS in its last five conference games.  The Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  Roll with Iowa State Saturday.

15* Conference USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Southern Miss +5.5

Southern Miss is one of the most underrated teams in all of college football.  The Golden Eagles have gone 8-3 straight up and 9-2 against the spread in their 11 games this year.  Their great play has put them in a position to where if they win their regular season finale against Louisiana Tech, they will be playing in the Conference USA Championship Game.

The Golden Eagles continue to be undervalued here as 5.5-point road underdogs to the Bulldogs.  Sure, the Bulldogs are also 8-3 and are playing for the same thing, but it's clear to me that when you look at the numbers against common opponents that the Bulldogs should not be favored.

Both teams have played the same five opponents this season.  Southern Miss is 4-1 against them outscoring them by 23.0 points per game and outgaining them by 240.4 yards per game.  Louisiana Tech is 4-1 against those same five teams, but only outscoring them by 9.6 points per game and outgaining them by 92.6 yards per game.  This really shows that the Golden Eagles are by far the superior team.

Southern Miss is 7-0 ATS off one or more straight overs over the last two seasons.  The Golden Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  The Bulldogs are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.  Bet Southern Miss Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on VA Tech/Virginia UNDER 51

The intensity level in this rivalry between Virginia and Virginia Tech is always high.  It usually leads to a defensive battle when they get together.  The intensity level will certainly be high for Virginia Tech, which hopes to send Frank Beamer out on a winning note and a bowl berth.  Virginia wants to beat the head coach that has tormented the Cavaliers through the years, though.

A quick look at the recent head-to-head results shows that there's value with the UNDER 51 here.  The Hokies and Cavaliers have combined for 44 or fewer points in each of their last five meetings.  They have average just 35.8 combined points in their last five meetings, which is roughly 15 points less than today's posted total of 51.

Bud Foster's defense at Virginia Tech has simply shut down Virginia.  The Cavaliers have scored 21 or fewer points in each of the last 11 meetings.  They have been held to 14 or less in nine of those 11 meetings.  The Hokies have another elite defense this season and should do their part in helping aid the UNDER.

The downfall for Beamer and company in recent years has been on offense.  They are only averaging 373 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play this season as this is a below-average unit once again.  The Cavaliers are pretty much on par with the Hokies offensively at 378 yards per game and 5.5 per play.

Against other good defensive teams, both squads have been prone to the UNDER.  The Hokies lost 13-17 to Pittsburgh for 30 combined points, beat Boston College 26-10 for 36 combined points, and beat Georgia Tech 23-21 for 44 combined points.  The Cavaliers lost to Pitt 19-26 for 35 combines points, lost to UNC 13-26 for 39 combined points, and beat Georgia Tech 27-21 for 48 combined points.

VA Tech is 7-0 UNDER in its last seven games vs. teams who give up 6.25 or more yards per play.  The Hokies are 12-3 to the UNDER against conference opponents over the last two seasons.  Virginia is 12-3 to the UNDER in its last 15 after scoring 31 or more points in two straight games.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Hokies last seven games overall.  The UNDER is 11-4-1 in Cavaliers last 16 conference games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB Rivalry GAME OF THE MONTH on Kentucky +6.5

The Kentucky Wildcats find themselves in the exact same position as last year.  They were 5-6 going into the Governor's Cup battle with Louisville needing a win to become bowl eligible.  They lost a gut-wrencher 44-40 at Louisville as 13.5-point underdogs.  They even had the lead with less than three minutes to play before giving up a game-winning touchdown to the Cardinals with 2:47 left.

I have to think that the Wildcats aren't going to fall short again this season.  This is the best team that Mark Stoops has had at Kentucky, and I believe the Wildcats will get the job done at home this time around.  It also helps that Louisville is clearly not as good as it was last season at just 6-5 on the year.

Kentucky got some confidence with a 58-10 beat down of Charlotte last week, which pretty much serves as a bye week heading into this game.  Louisville, meanwhile, played a taxing 34-45 loss at Pittsburgh in which the Cardinals gave up 42 points in the first half.  They gave up 31 points to an awful Virginia offense the previous week as well.  This team has no business even being favored with how poorly the defense is playing.

Louisville is 2-3 on the road this season with a 7-point win at NC State and a 1-point win at Wake Forest as 12-point favorites.  Those two wins are far from impressive.  Kentucky is 4-3 at home this season with a 3-point loss to Auburn and a 5-point loss to Florida for two of its losses.  It has only been beaten by this 6-point margin once at home in seven games this season.

Louisville is 1-9 ATS off a game where it forced one or fewer turnovers over the last three seasons.  Kentucky is 22-9 ATS in its last 31 home games after having lost four or five of its last six games coming in.  The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  The Wildcats are 6-2 ATS in their last eight conference games.  Take Kentucky Saturday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington -7

You're going to see an amped up Washington Huskies team take the field this afternoon in the Apple Cup against Washington State.  The Huskies are fighting to become bowl eligible as they are just 5-6 on the season with one game to go.  I fully expect them to use this motivation to roll to victory at home Friday afternoon.

Washington is one of the best teams in the country to have a losing record right now.  I have been especially impressed with the way the Huskies have been playing of late as they just continue to get better with each passing week under Chris Petersen.

Washington is coming off a 52-7 road win at Oregon State last week.  It also beat Arizona 49-3 at home four weeks ago.  The Huskies lost the two games in between, but shouldn't have.  They committed a combined 8 turnovers in losses to Utah and Arizona State.  They actually outgained the Utes by 35 yards in a 23-34 home loss, and outgained Arizona State by 150 yards in a 17-27 road loss.

This Washington offense has really been lighting it up behind the steady play of freshman Jake Browning.  The Huskies had 468 yards against Arizona, 547 against Arizona State, and 482 against Oregon State in three of its last four contests.  They also had 381 yards against Utah during this stretch, which isn't a bad output against that defense.

Washington State is overvalued right now due to going 8-0 ATS in its last eight games overall.  The Huskies' latest cover was a 27-3 home win over Colorado and its backup quarterback.  But now the Cougars will likely be playing with a backup quarterback of their own.

Starter Luke Falk was carried off the field on a backboard last Saturday in the third quarter against Colorado.  He has a concussion, and it's unlikely he's going to be able to play on a short week.  He's currently listed as doubtful, though head coach Mike Leach has stated he'll make the final decision right before the game.

The chances are that Falk won't be able to go, and now Peyton Bender will make his first collegiate start in a hostile atmosphere.  Bender went 13 of 22 for 133 yards, one touchdown, one interception and another throw that should have been picked off in relief duty against Colorado last week.

The difference in this game is going to be defense.  The Huskies give up 18.5 points, 352.7 yards per game and 4.9 per play against opposing offenses that average 30.5 points, 425 yards per game and 5.9 per play.  The Cougars give up 27.4 points, 421 yards per game and 5.8 per play this season.

Washington has won each of its last two meetings with Washington State and five of the last six overall with all five wins coming by a touchdown or more.  The only loss came in overtime at Washington State in 2012.  Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON ST) - off two straight wins against conference rivals against opponent off a double digit road win are 43-14 (75.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Washington Friday.

20* Texas Tech/Texas Thanksgiving Night No-Brainer on UNDER 72.5

I don’t see a ton of value on the side in this game as both of these teams are very unpredictable. If I had to choose a side, I would take Texas because it is better than its record and has outgained four of its last five opponents. Plus the fact that the Longhorns are 6-0 in the last six meetings and just seem to have the Red Raiders figured out.

Instead, I see a ton of value with the UNDER in this game for many of the same reasons I like Texas. I look for the Longhorns to utilize their running game to move the chains and keep the Texas Tech offense off the field for the majority of this game. I also believe the Longhorns are good enough defensively to slow down this Red Raider attack.

Texas has been playing some great defense of late. It has allowed 24 or fewer points in four of its last five games. That includes 17 points against Oklahoma in a 24-17 upset win. The only exception was a 20-38 loss to West Virginia, but those 38 points for the Mountaineers were very fluky. The Longhorns set the Mountaineers up for several easy scores by committing five turnovers. They actually held WVU to just 379 total yards in the loss.

But this Texas offense isn’t very good, either. The Longhorns have been held to 24 or fewer points in five of their last six games overall. The only exception came against Kansas when they scored 59 points. But almost everyone is lighting up that awful Kansas defense this year. The Longhorns hardly even look to throw the ball as they average 44 rushing attempts per game compared to just 21 passing. That’s going to keep the clock moving in this one.

Texas Tech is 3-1 to the UNDER in true road games this season. It combined for 59 points with Arkansas with a 68-point total. It combined for 50 points with Kansas with a 74-point total. It combined for 90 points against Oklahoma for the only over on the road. The Red Raiders also combined for 57 points with West Virginia with an 80.5-point total in that game.

Texas’ 10 totals this season have been 48, 49, 58, 62, 72, 60, 47.5, 50, 52 and 52 points. As you can see, this 72.5-point total is the largest total set in a Texas game this season. There was only one larger than 62, and that was a 72-point total against TCU. The Horned Frogs won that game 50-7 for 57 combined points as it went well UNDER the total. This just kind of shows you that there’s some serious value with the UNDER here.

The head-to-head history also shows value with the UNDER. Indeed, Texas Tech and Texas have combined for 72 or fewer points in each of their last seven meetings dating back to 2008. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with combined scores of 47, 57, 53, 72, 38 and 58 points. That’s an average of 54.2 combined points per game, which is roughly 18 points less than this posted total of 72.5.

The UNDER is 22-8 in Longhorns last 30 conference games. The UNDER is 14-6 in Longhorns last 20 home games. Texas is 14-2 to the UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons. The Longhorns are 9-1 to the UNDER vs. good passing teams that average 8 or more yards per attempt over the last three years.  I also like the fact that both teams have had extra time to prepare for this game after having last week off, which is going to favor the defenses.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

25* NFL Thursday GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Cowboys +1

Carolina's 10-0 start will come to a screeching halt on Thursday.  The Dallas Cowboys are the real deal with Tony Romo at quarterback, going 3-0 with him and 0-7 without him.  But they were at least competitive during their 7-game losing streak as five of their seven losses came by a touchdown or less.  That's because their defense is one of the better stop units in the league, and all this team was missing was a quarterback.

The Cowboys racked up 386 total yards in their 24-14 win at Miami last week.  They even overcame a couple of questionable interceptions from Romo as he shook off the rust, throwing for 227 yards and two touchdowns.  Darren McFadden also chipped in 129 rushing yards behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.  This is now as complete a team as there is in the NFL with Romo back under center.

But the credit in the Miami win has to go to the Cowboys' defense.  They limited the Dolphins to just 210 total yards as they simply could not get anything going.  The defense is only giving up 335.5 yards per game against opponents that average 376 yards per game, holding them to 40 yards below their season averages.  Expect the Cowboys to really control the time of possession now with Romo back, which is only going to make those defensive numbers even better going forward.

Admittedly, I've underestimated the Panthers this season.  I pictured this as about a .500 team coming into the year.  But now that the Panthers are 10-0 straight up and 8-2 against the spread, there's no question they are overvalued as the betting public has taken notice.  This line indicates the Panthers would be favored on a neutral field, and that's not right in my eyes.  The Cowboys are by far the superior team now that Romo is back and should be favored on a neutral field, and thus at least a 4-point favorite at home.  I believe there's some serious line value here with the Cowboys as a result.

Despite being 3-7, the Cowboys still have a legitimate shot to win the NFC East.  They are only two games behind the New York Giants and one game back of the Philadelphia Eagles.  They cannot afford a loss here, while the Panthers can afford a loss now that they have a two-game lead over the Arizona Cardinals for home-field advantage in the NFC.  They also have a four-game lead over the Falcons in the NFC South.

Cam Newton deserves a lot of credit for what he's been able to do with limited weapons on offense, but the fact of the matter is that this is still a below-average offensive team.  The Panthers only average 5.5 yards per play against opponents that give up 5.8 yards per play.  They rank a mediocre 15th in the NFL in total offense at 354.2 yards per game as well.  This offense will meet its match against Dallas' top-notch defense that has allowed 14 or fewer points in three of its last four games.

The Panthers have also benefited from a home-heavy schedule this season.  They have only played four road games, and three of those came against Jacksonville, Tampa Bay and Tennessee.  Their only impressive road win came at Seattle by a final of 27-23.  But the Seahawks let that game slip away by blowing a double-digit lead in the second half.  The Panthers won't be so fortunate this week against a hungry Cowboys team on the road.

Romo is the only quarterback all-time with multiple wins against teams that are 9-0 or better.  He beat the 9-0 Indianapolis Colts in the fourth start of his career in 2006.  He also beat the 13-0 Saints in Week 15 of the 2009 season.  The Cowboys are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 home games after having lost three of their last four games coming in.  Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last five meetings with Carolina dating back to 2005.  Bet the Cowboys Thursday.

20* Bowling Green/Ball State MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Ball State +23.5

I faded Bowling Green with success last week in a 28-44 home loss to Toledo as 7-point favorites.  I'll fade the Falcons again this week for many of the same reasons as they are way overvalued here as 23.5-point favorites over the Cardinals.

Bowling Green had nothing to play for with two games to go last year because it already clinched the MAC East at that point.  It not only lost its final two games, it was also blown out by Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship.  The same thing is happening this season.

Bowling Green clinched the MAC East title two weeks ago with its 41-27 win at Western Michigan.  The Falcons failed to show up last week in their 28-44 loss to Toledo as a result, and they certainly won't bring the kind of focus it takes to beat Ball State by 24-plus points in this one.

Ball State is a better team than its 3-8 record would indicate.  This is its last chance to prove it, and I expect an inspired effort from the Cardinals in this one as a result.  Plus, it's Senior Night for 17 players, so there's no question this team is going to be laying it all on the line to try and get one last win for their senior class.

The Cardinals have been competitive at home this season.  They beat UMass 20-10, only lost to Central Michigan 21-23, and lost by 14 to Toledo.  They haven't lost by more than 14 points at home this season.  They also only lost 19-24 at Northwestern as 17.5-point underdogs to prove what they are capable of.

Last year the Cardinals upset Bowling Green 41-24 as 10-point road underdogs.  That was the final game of the season when the Falcons had already clinched the MAC East and had nothing to play for.  I'm not calling for the upset here again, but it certainly would not surprise me one bit with the state of mind the Cardinals and Falcons are in.

The Cardinals have had some great quarterback play this season from freshman Riley Neal, who has thrown 15 touchdowns against only three interceptions.  Jordan Williams and KeVonn Mabon have combined for 128 receptions, 1,565 yards and 10 touchdowns this year.  Corey Lacanaria (42, 355, 2 TD) has missed the last two games due to suspension, but he's expected to return for this one, giving Neal another weapon.

Ball State is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 after allowing 37 points or more in two straight games.  Plays on home underdogs of 14.5 or more points (BALL ST) - in conference games, returning 8+ offensive starters against opponent returning 5 or less defensive starters are 48-20 (70.6%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Ball State on Senior Night Tuesday.