15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington State +10.5

Oregon figures to take a big step back this year after a 12-2 season last year that resulted in a Pac-12 title.  Losing QB Justin Herbert is a big blow when you consider how good he has looked with the Los Angeles Chargers in the NFL this season.  They return just three starters on offense and lose all five starters along the offensive line.  They were supposed to have eight starters back on defense, but they lost two starters in CB Thomas Graham and S Brady Breeze for personal reasons.  So they wind up having just nine returning starters.

Oregon caught a huge break in their opener when Stanford QB Davis Mills and his top receiver were both ruled out on the day of the game.  The Ducks won that game 35-14 as 11-point favorites.  But Stanford went 0-for-4 on field goals and came up short on two other trips in Oregon territory.  It was a closer game than the final score suggests.  But since it wound up being a 21-point difference, I think Oregon is being overvalued this week as double-digit road favorites over Washington State.

Nick Rolovich guided Hawaii to a 10-win season last year and a trip to the Mountain West title game.  He parlayed that incredible success into a job at Washington State this year.  And he’s already off to an impressive start with an upset 38-28 road win at Oregon State as a 3-point dog in the opener.  He stepped into a decent situation as the Cougars returned 14 starters this season.

QB Jaden De Laura followed Rolovich from Hawaii and had a great game against Oregon State, throwing for 227 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for 43 yards and a score.  And Washington State’s defense played great for three quarters as it was a 28-7 game late in the third quarter.  But Oregon State dig tack on some garbage time scores to make the final score appear closer than it was.  So again, I think we are getting extra value with Washington State because of that.

Washington State has won four of its last five meetings with Oregon outright with its only loss coming by two points.  Better yet, the Cougars are a perfect 10-0 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Enough said.  Take Washington State Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulsa -2.5

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane have over two weeks to get ready for the SMU Mustangs after last playing East Carolina on Friday, October 30th.  They have had this game circled all offseason after blowing a 30-9 lead in the 4th quarter to SMU last year, only to lose 37-43 in overtime.  This is a game they desperately want.

Tulsa has already proved it can hang with the best teams in the AAC this season by knocking off UCF as a 20.5-point road underdog, 34-26.  And they played Oklahoma State, arguably the best team in the Big 12, down to the wire in a 7-16 loss as 23.5-point road underdogs.  They also crushed South Florida 42-13 on the road before a shaky win against ECU that probably saw them overlooking the Pirates and looking ahead to this game against SMU.

While the Golden Hurricane are rested and ready, the Mustangs are a tired team right now as this will be their 9th game already this season.  It will only be the 5th game for Tulsa.  And the Mustangs will be playing for a 5th consecutive week and their 9th game in 10 weeks.

Tulsa has a very good defense this season, holding opponents to 21.3 points per game, 373 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play.  They are holding their opponents to 9.3 points per game, 74 yards per game and 0.9 yards per play less than their season averages.  SMU is giving up 28.6 points per game, 419.8 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play this season.

And keep in mind that SMU has built up its stats against a soft schedule.  Their seven wins have come against Texas State, North Texas, Stephen F. Austin, Memphis, Tulane, Navy and Temple.  Their lone loss came in emphatic fashion by a final of 13-42 to Cincinnati.  And they only beat Memphis and Tulane by 3 points each, which were their next two toughest games.

SMU is 0-6 ATS when the total is 63.5 to 70 over the last three seasons.  The Mustangs are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games after covering the spread in five or six of their last seven games.  SMU is 15-32 ATS in its last 47 games off a conference win by 10 points or more.  The Golden Hurricane are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games following an ATS loss.  Roll with Tulsa Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston College +14

The Boston College Eagles are live underdogs this week against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.  Just two weeks ago they only lost to Clemson by 6 as 26.5-point underdogs.  So they showed they could play with a team like Clemson.  And that effort will give them the confidence they need to compete with a team like Notre Dame.

This is a massive letdown spot for the Fighting Irish.  They just beat Clemson in double-overtime last week in their biggest game of the season.  That overtime win probably took a lot out of them.  And now they are getting a lot of love being ranked as the No. 2 team in the country.  This is exactly the spot that I love to fade the Fighting Irish.

Boston College will be ‘all in’ this week knowing they have a bye on deck next week.  They would love nothing more than to upset rival Notre Dame.  QB Phil Jurkovec is a former Notre Dame transfer who is out to prove that the Fighting Irish made the wrong decision going with Ian Book over him.  Jurkovec is having a great season with 62.1% completions, over 2,000 passing yards and a 15-to-4 TD/INT ratio.  He has also rushed for three scores on the ground.

The Eagles are 5-3 this season with two of their losses coming by 6 points or less to two of the better teams in the country in Clemson (28-34) and North Carolina (22-26).  Their only blowout loss came to Virginia Tech, and that was a very misleading score as the Eagles lost the turnover battle 5-0.

Boston College is 22-7-1 ATS in its last 30 conference games, clearly being the most underrated team in the ACC over the last several years.  The Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as home underdogs.  The underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Bet Boston College Saturday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia State +16

Appalachian State has a huge game on deck next week against No. 15 Coastal Carolina, which is 7-0 and their top contender to win the Sun Belt.  I think they’ll be looking ahead to that game, and they won’t be giving Georgia State the proper respect they deserve in this contest.  That will allow Georgia State to stay within this massive number.

Keep in mind Georgia State was only a 4-point dog to Coastal Carolina just two weeks ago, and now they are 16-point dogs to Appalachian State.  That’s some line value folks.  And they bounced back with a 52-34 home win over Louisiana Monroe.  Appalachian State also beat Louisiana Monroe by 18 points two weeks ago, 31-13.  And they failed to cover against Texas State in a 21-point win as 21.5-point favorites last week.  

Georgia State is a lot better than both of those squads and could easily be 5-1 instead of 3-3 this season with two of their losses coming to Louisiana 31-34 in OT and Arkansas State 52-59.  They also upset ECU from the AAC and upset Troy on the road as well.  The Panthers boast an offense that puts up 36.7 points per game this season behind a balanced attack that average 215 rushing yards and 198 passing yards per game.

The Mountaineers are now 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They are also 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as favorites.  This team has been overvalued all season and continues to be this week.  And it’s a bad spot for Appalachian State with their game of the year on deck against Coastal Carolina next week.  Take Georgia State Saturday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on West Virginia -3

The West Virginia Mountaineers are just 4-3 this season.  They are flying under the radar in the Big 12 and are the most underrated team in the conference in my opinion.  They have the stats to back it up, too.

The Mountaineers were only outgained by 3 yards in their 13-17 loss at Texas as 6.5-point dogs last week.  They outgained Texas Tech by 90 yards in their 27-34 road loss.  And they outgained Oklahoma State by 11 yards in their 13-27 road loss.  So all three losses have come on the road for the Mountaineers.

Now West Virginia is back home where they are 4-0 this season and outscoring opponents by 25.0 points per game.  What I really like about West Virginia is that they are outgaining their opponents by 178.9 yards per game.  Their offense averages 449.9 yards per game and their defense gives up just 271.0 yards per game, giving them the best defense in the Big 12 to this point.

TCU is coming off two straight wins over Big 12 bottom feeders in Baylor and Texas Tech.  They rushed for 247 yards and only threw for 138 against Baylor.  They rushed for 270 yards and only threw for 73 against Texas Tech.  So they have been a run-heavy offense, which plays right into West Virginia’s hands defensively.  The Mountaineers only allow 109 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry this season.

West Virginia is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with TCU.  The Mountaineers weren’t very good last year, and they still won outright 20-17 over TCU as 14-point road dogs.  In their last two trips to West Virginia, TCU has lost by 37 and 24 points.  Bet West Virginia Saturday. 

20* AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on East Carolina +28

The Cincinnati Bearcats are getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers now that they are 6-0 and currently ranked 7th in the country in the AP Poll.  Now they are four-touchdown favorites over East Carolina this week and it’s time to fade them.  The betting public has caught onto this team by now and it’s time to ’sell high’ on the Bearcats.

It’s also a great time to ‘buy low’ on the East Carolina Pirates.  They are just 1-5 this season but have been pretty competitive as they are only getting outscored by 8.0 points per game on the season.  They got robbed of a win as 17-point dogs in a 30-34 loss to Tulsa as the Golden Hurricane had three calls go their way on the final drive.  The AAC came out and said the officials made a mistake after the game.  And keep in mind that’s a very good Tulsa team that upset UCF and nearly upset Oklahoma State.

I think the Pirates suffered a hangover from that defeat last week, losing 21-38 at home to Tulane.  That’s a Tulane team that is improving rapidly as well.  And now ECU still hasn’t lost a game by more than 23 points this season despite playing a tougher schedule than Cincinnati has.

Cincinnati has benefited from a home-heavy schedule with six of their first seven games at home.  And it’s a terrible spot for Cincinnati.  They are coming off three straight wins and covers over AAC contenders in SMU, Memphis and Houston, and now they have a road game at UCF on deck.  That makes this the classic sandwich game for the Bearcats.  I think they’ll be taking ECU lightly here, which will allow the Pirates to stay within the number.

These teams do have a common opponent in South Florida.  ECU beat South Florida 44-24 on the road back on October 10th.  Cincinnati only beat South Florida 28-7 at home as 22-point favorites in a game that was a lot closer than the final score.  They only gained 332 total yards in that game and outgained USF by only 41 yards.

East Carolina does have a good offense that puts up 29.2 points per game, which will allow them to stay within this number as they will put together drives and score on this Cincinnati defense.  I really like ECU QB Holton Ahlers, who is completing 63.1% of his passes with a 12-to-5 TD/INT ratio.  He is very mobile and his mobility will help him escape this strong Cincinnati defensive line when he drops back to pass.

The Pirates are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as road underdogs.  The Bearcats are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  Finally, East Carolina only lost 43-46 at home to Cincinnati as a 24.5-point underdog last year.  The Pirates had 608 total yards in that defeat.  Ahlers threw for 535 yards and four touchdowns while also rushing for a score in defeat.  Bet East Carolina Friday.

20* Colts/Titans AFC South No-Brainer on Tennessee ML +103

The Tennessee Titans are 6-2 this season with their only losses coming at home to the Steelers and on the road to the Bengals.  They got back in the win column with a 24-17 victory over the Bears last week in what was a 24-3 game before the Bears scored some points in garbage time to make the score closer than it was.

That was a box score against the Bears that lied last week, and I think it’s creating some line value here on the Titans getting them as home underdogs.  The Bears outgained the Titans by nearly 150 yards, but they got almost all those yards in garbage time after the game was already decided.  And the Bears ran 20 more plays than the Titans did.  The Titans just basically tried to milk the clock after taking a 24-3 lead in the 4th quarter.

The Colts lost 24-10 to the Ravens last week.  But the early money is on the Colts this week because of another box score that favored the Colts.  They outgained the Ravens by 73 yards.  But they went just 2-of-12 on 3rd down in another terrible performance by Philip Rivers when he has stepped up on competition.

Speaking of competition, the Colts have played the easiest schedule in the entire NFL according to Football Outsiders.  They are 5-3 this season with their five wins coming against the Vikings, Jets, Bears, Bengals and Lions.  And keep in mind they lost to the Jaguars and Browns.  Even after playing a good team in the Ravens, they still have the 32nd-ranked schedule in the NFL, which shows just how easy it has been.

Rivers just doesn’t have the same caliber of weapons in Indianapolis as he did with the Chargers.  TY Hilton can’t stay healthy and is questionable again tonight.  And now Rivers has lost his favorite tight end in Jack Doyle.  There’s no question the Titans have a huge advantage on offense with Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry, AJ Brown and company.  They are scoring 29.0 points per game this season.

The Titans are 4-1 at home this season and winning by 7.8 points per game.  Again, their only home loss was to the unbeaten Steelers.  The Colts are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. AFC opponents.  Indianapolis is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record.  The Titans are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as home underdogs.  Bet the Titans on the Money Line Thursday.

20* Toledo/WMU ESPN No-Brainer on Western Michigan -2.5

The Western Michigan Broncos had one of the best recruiting classes in the MAC this year. They also got in eight spring practices, which was the third-most in the conference.  They are legit contenders to win the conference this year despite having just 11 returning starters.

That was evident when they blasted Akron 58-13 in the opener.  They averaged 8.3 yards per play on what was expected to be an improve Akron team. They held the Zips to just 256 total yards and an average of only 4.0 yards per play.  Sophomore QB Kaleb Eleby threw for 262 yards and three touchdowns on only 16 attempts, so he couldn’t have been any better.

I certainly have my questions about this Toledo team that went 6-6 last year and gave up 32.2 points and 476 yards per game defensively.  They do have 14 starters back and should be improved, but head coach Jason Candle is declining.  He took advantage of the players Matt Campbell recruited before him and went 9-4 and 11-3 in his first two seasons.  But since he has had his players in place, the Rockets have went just 7-6 and 6-6 the last two seasons.

I’m not willing to give Toledo much respect for its 38-3 win over Bowling Green as a 24-point favorite in the opener.  The Rockets were 24-point favorites in that game, and the Falcons are clearly the worst team in the MAC.  I think that result has the Rockets overvalued here with the Broncos only having to lay 2.5 points in this game at home.

Western Michigan wants revenge from a 24-31 road loss to Toledo last year.  And all of the Broncos’ losses came on the road last season as they went a perfect 6-0 SU at home.  Now they get the Rockets at home this time around.

The Rockets are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games.  Toledo is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games as an underdog.  The Broncos are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight home games.  The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Western Michigan Wednesday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Buffalo -9.5

The Buffalo Bulls should be the best team in the MAC this year.  They went 8-5 last season and while they didn’t win the MAC, I would have had them favored over every team in the conference in the title game.  They were 2nd in the MAC with a +138.0 yards per game differential and they only got better as the season went on.

Now head coach Lance Leipold has his best team yet with 15 returning starters, making the Bulls the 16th-most experienced team in the country.  They also got in nine spring practices, which was the second-most in the MAC.  That’s a huge advantage heading into this shortened MAC season.

The Bulls are loaded everywhere on offense with eight returning starters.  They have two 1,000-yard rushers in Jaret Patterson (1,799 yards, 19 TD, 5.8/carry last year) and Kevin Marks (1,035, 8 TD, 4.6/carry).  Each of their top three receivers are back as are their top two quarterbacks.  They return seven starters defensively from a unit that gave up just 21.3 points per game last year.  They are great at getting after opposing quarterbacks, recording 43 sacks last year.

Buffalo got off to a nice start this season with a 49-30 win as a closing 14.5-point favorite at Northern Illinois.  Buffalo led 49-16 with five minutes left in the 4th quarter.  Northern Illinois tacked on two garbage touchdowns in the final five minutes to make the score appear closer than it was.  The Bulls averaged 7.0 yards per play offensively while giving up just 5.0 yards per play to the Huskies.

Miami Ohio is coming off a misleading 38-31 win over Ball State.  The Redhawks gave up a whopping 478 total yards to the Cardinals and 6.8 yards per play.  They only averaged 5.7 yards per play on offense against a bad Ball State defense.  They are overvalued now after winning that game when they really shouldn’t have.

Also, I think the motivation favors Buffalo here.  Miami Ohio came out of nowhere to win the MAC last season and they were probably no better than a middle of the pack team.  They had a misleading 34-20 win over Buffalo last year that was a key to them making the title game.  Buffalo lost the turnover battle 4-0 in that game and found a way to lose despite rushing for 309 yards and holding Miami Ohio to just 265 total yards.  It’s revenge time tonight as the Bulls flex their muscle and win this game by double-digits.

Buffalo is now 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall with all seven wins coming by 19 points or more.  The Bulls are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games off a win by 10 points or more against a conference opponent.  Buffalo is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 home games.  The Bulls are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 conference games.  Bet Buffalo Tuesday.

20* Patriots/Jets ESPN Monday No-Brainer on New England -7

The New England Patriots aren’t going to give up on their season under Bill Belichick.  They are just 2-5 on the season but everything is still in front of them, and I like the quotes I’m hearing from the players heading into this game with the New York Jets Monday night.  They nearly upset the Bills on the road last week, which shows they have not quit.

If there was ever a ‘get right’ game for the Patriots, this would be it.  They take on the worst team in the NFL in the New York Jets, who are 0-8 SU & 1-7 ATS with all eight losses coming by 8 points or more and by an average of 18.0 points per game.  And we are getting the Patriots here at less than that 8-point margin as only 7-point favorites.

The numbers show the Patriots to be an average team and better than their 2-5 record.  They are only getting outgained by 5.6 yards per game on the season.  Compare that to the Jets, who are getting outgained by 140 yards per game, and the Patriots should roll to an easy win and cover.  And because this is a National TV game on Monday Night Football, the Patriots will show up and handle their business.

Plays against home underdogs or PK (NY Jets) - a poor team that is outgained by 50 or more yards per game, after allowing 375 or more yards in two consecutive games are 30-7 (81.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Jets are 0-6 ATS after being outgained by 150 or more yards in their previous game over the last two seasons.  Bet the Patriots Monday.

15* Saints/Bucs NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Tampa Bay -4.5

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers want revenge from a 23-34 road loss to the New Orleans Saints in the season opener.  Of course the Bucs were a completely new team and they weren’t going to be clicking in Week 1.  That proved to be the case as Tom Brady threw a pick-six which was the difference.  It’s worth noting the Bucs still outgained the Saints by 39 yards in that loss as it was closer than the score would suggest.

It’s safe to say the Bucs have gotten it together since.  They have gone 6-1 SU & 4-2-1 ATS in their last seven games overall while outscoring their opponents by an average of 13.3 points per game.  Their offense has been rolling with 25-plus points in all six wins.  Brady has unlimited weapons, and their defense is one of the best in the NFL, giving up just 20.6 points per game and 299.5 yards per game this season.

I’m willing to throw out Tampa Bay’s narrow win over the New York Giants last week.  That was clearly a sandwich spot off two huge blowout wins over the Packers and Raiders, and knowing they had this game against the Saints on deck this week.  They didn’t bring their best effort against the Giants and still managed to win.

The Saints are very fortunate to be 5-2 this season.  And it’s worth noting their two losses have come to the Packers and Raiders, two teams the Bucs beat by a combined 53 points.  They have been fortunate during their current four-game winning streak winning four one-score games by 6 points or fewer over the Lions, Chargers, Panthers and Bears.  Those are four mediocre teams at best.  This is a big step up in class for the Saints.

Drew Brees looks like a shell of his former self with terrible arm strength, and now he has popped up on the injury report with a throwing shoulder ailment.  We still don’t know if Michael Thomas will make his return.  And their defense has some key injuries and hasn’t played well all season.  The Saints give up 28.1 points per game on the year.  This is where it really catches up to them as Tom Brady lights up that soft defense, and the Bucs shut down Brees and company in a huge revenge game that will likely decide the division.

New Orleans is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games off two straight wins by 3 points or less.  The Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a SU win.  New Orleans is 0-4 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  These three trends combine for a perfect 16-0 system backing Tampa Bay tonight.  Roll with the Bucs Sunday.

15* Dolphins/Cardinals Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Miami +5

The Miami Dolphins have been one of my favorite teams to back this season because the betting public just doesn’t want to buy into them.  I have fully bought in and it has paid dividends.  And I think they’ve being undervalued again this week as 5-point road dogs to the Arizona Cardinals.

I’m buying into the Dolphins because they have an underrated defense and a head coach in Brian Flores who is getting everything out of his players.  They love playing for this guy.  The defense is giving up just 18.6 points per game on the season and just 17.0 points per game on the road.

Offensively, the Dolphins are scoring 26.9 points per game, so they are outscoring opponents by 8.3 points per game on the season.  I don’t think Tua is an upgrade over Ryan Fitzpatrick, but it’s also not as much of a downgrade as many believe it is.  I think it’s pretty much a wash at this point and time will tell.

Many bettors are looking at that misleading box score from last week that saw the Dolphins beat the Rams 28-17 as 3-point home dogs.  The Dolphins basically got three touchdowns off turnovers.  But their defense does force turnovers as they have forced at least one in every game this season and a total of 13 on the year.  Tua didn’t have to do much as they took a conservative approach offensively, so they have plenty of hidden secrets with Tua’s playbook that they can unleash on Arizona this week.

Some bye weeks are better than others.  I strongly believe this was a bad time for the Cardinals to have their bye week.  They had a lot of momentum going into their bye with three straight victories, blowing out both the Jets and Cowboys and upsetting the Seahawks in overtime.  So they went into their bye feeling fat and happy instead of hungry. And I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see them come out rusty and flat this week, especially off that huge win over Seattle.

No team has head better health than Miami this season as they only have four players on the injury report currently.  That’s impressive when you consider how many teams have been decimated by injuries in this crazy pandemic season.  To compare, the Cardinals have 13 players on their injury report even coming off their bye week, and a lot of them are key players.

Miami is a perfect 7-0 ATS in Weeks 5 through 9 over the last two seasons.  The Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Plays against any team (Arizona) - off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season are 79-35 (69.3%) ATS since 1983.  Take the Dolphins Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Dallas Cowboys +14

The Dallas Cowboys are one of just three teams since 1989 to start a season 0-8 ATS.  No team has started 0-9 ATS during this span.  So the Cowboys would make history if they don’t cover this spread Sunday.  It’s safe to say this is a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Cowboys this week.

The Cowboys will likely be starting Cooper Rush at quarterback this week, which would be an upgrade over Ben Dinucci, who has been terrible.  And things have gotten better for them on the injury front both on defense and on the offensive line.  They still have a chance to win the division, and they will fight until they are eliminated.

Not only is it a great ‘buy low’ spot on Dallas in their biggest underdog role this season, it’s also a ’sell high’ spot on the Steelers.  Pittsburgh is 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS and making the public a lot of money this season.  Now the Steelers find themselves in their biggest favorite role of the season here against the Cowboys.

It’s also a huge letdown spot for the Steelers.  They are coming off two straight huge wins.  They handed the Titans their first loss of the season two weeks ago, and last week they somehow beat their biggest rivals in the Ravens despite getting outgained by 236 yards.  Now they are feeling fat and happy and this is the perfect spot for them to lay an egg against the Cowboys, which will keep this game closer than the oddsmakers expect.

Pittsburgh was in a dog fight with the Eagles a few weeks back.  And Dallas gave Philadelphia a run for its money last week.  The Cowboys forced four turnovers and held the Eagles to just 222 total yards and had a chance to win it late before Dinucci fumbled and it was returned for a TD.  Their defense is improving, and their offense is still one of the most talented in the entire NFL.  There is enough talent on this roster to compete with the Steelers even with a fourth different starting QB this week.

Pittsburgh is 12-29 ATS in its last 41 games as a favorite of 10 points or more.  The Steelers are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games as a road favorite of 7.5 to 14 points.  Dallas is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 home games after having lost three of its last four coming in.  Mike Tomlin is 5-15 ATS vs. teams that are outscored by 10 or more points per game as the coach of the Steelers.  Dallas is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as a home underdog.  Take the Cowboys Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Carolina Panthers +11

Let’s get this remarkable stat out of the way early.  Teddy Bridgewater is 22-5 ATS as an underdog as a starting quarterback in the NFL.  And it’s a great spot for the Panthers this week.  They have extra time to prepare after playing last Thursday against the Falcons, so they should be the fresher, more prepared team.

Now the Panthers should also get back their best playmaker in Christian McCaffrey from an ankle injury.  He means everything to this team.  And the way to beat the Chiefs is to run on them.  Kansas City gives up 143 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry this season.  That’s remarkable when you consider the Chiefs play with a lead most the time and teams usually have to throw the ball to try and come back. Look for the Panthers to play keep away from Patrick Mahomes and to run the football and go on long scoring drives as a result.

It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Panthers coming off three straight losses.  It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the Chiefs coming off three straight wins and covers.  They weren’t just any wins either, they were blowout wins against two of the worst teams in the NFL in the Broncos by 27 and the Jets by 26 in their last two games.  And that win over the Broncos was very misleading.  This is a big step up in class now for the Chiefs, and I have a feeling they might be sleep-walking this week knowing that they have a big lead in the division and a bye next week to look ahead to.

A big reason Bridgewater is such a good underdog is because he doesn’t turn the ball over.  The Panthers have had zero turnovers in four of their eight games this season and just one turnover in two of them.  The Chiefs have forced one or more turnovers in every game this year.  Bridgewater will take care of the ball in this game, and those long, time-consuming drives he takes the Panthers on will pay dividends and keep this game a lot closer than the oddsmakers expect.

Andy Reid is 0-6 ATS in home games after gaining six or more yards per play in four consecutive games as the coach of the Chiefs having never covered in this situation.  The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as underdogs.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

25* NFC East GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington -2.5

I love the spot for the Washington Redskins Sunday.  They are coming off their bye week and have had two weeks to prepare for the Giants.  They will be fresh and ready to go, and they will want revenge from a 19-20 road loss to the Giants just a few weeks back after they came up short on a 2-point conversion late.

It’s a bad spot for the Giants.  They are coming off back-to-back heartbreaking losses to the Eagles (21-22) and Bucs (23-25) in their last two games.  They may suffer a hangover here, and they will also be on a short week after playing the Bucs on Monday Night Football.  They won’t be nearly as excited to fade Washington as they were to face Tom Brady and the Bucs on National TV.  That’s especially the case since they’ve already beaten Washington this season.

I would argue Washington deserved to win that first meeting.  They racked up 337 total yards in that game and held the Giants to just 240 total yards, outgaining them by 97 yards.  And Washington went on to crush Dallas 25-3 in their final game before the bye while holding the Cowboys to just 142 total yards.  They have an underrated defense that can keep them in games, and they clearly have the better defense in this matchup.

The Redskins have been at their best offensively when they’ve had Kyle Allen at quarterback.  He is a lot better than he gets credit for.  Allen is completing 68.8% of his passes with four touchdowns and only one interception in his three starts this season.  He is also mobile with 26 rushing yards and a score.

Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a SU win.  Plays against road underdogs or PK (NY Giants) - after covering the spread in three of their last four games, a bad team that wins less than 25% of their games playing a team with a losing record are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS since 1983.  Bet Washington Sunday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Stanford +10.5

The Stanford Cardinal are big bounce-back candidates in 2020.  They had won at least eight games in each of the previous eight seasons under head coach David Shaw.  But they fell to 4-8 last season due to injuries and attrition.  Now they go from having just nine returning starters last year all the way up to 16 returning starters this year and now they’re a veteran team.

Stanford boasts one of the best quarterbacks in the Pac-12 in Davis Mills.  He completed 65.6% of his passes last year after taking over for KJ Costello.  He was a Top 5 recruit coming out of high school.  And the Cardinal should get back to running the football this season with four returning starters along the offensive line and top recruits Austin Jones and EJ Smith in the backfield.  The defense will also be a lot better after an aberration year in which they gave up 29.8 points per game last season.

Oregon figures to take a big step back this year after a 12-2 season last year that resulted in a Pac-12 title.  Losing QB Justin Herbert is a big blow when you consider how good he has looked with the Los Angeles Chargers in the NFL this season.  They return just three starters on offense and lose all five starters along the offensive line.  They were supposed to have eight starters back on defense, but they lost two starters in CB Thomas Graham and S Brady Breeze for personal reasons.  So they wind up having just nine returning starters.

The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Ducks are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as home favorites.  Bet Stanford Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tennessee -1.5

This is a great spot to back the Tennessee Vols.  They are coming off three straight losses, so it’s a ‘buy low’ opportunity.  Two of those losses were to two of the best teams in the country in Alabama and Georgia.  And the other was a misleading loss to a quality Kentucky team in which they gave up just 294 yards to the Wildcats but committed four turnovers.

Now the Vols are coming off their bye week, so they’ve had two weeks to recover.  And you know they were practicing with a chip on their shoulder during their time off and will bring their best effort Saturday to try and end this skid.  And they are are taking a big step down in competition here against Arkansas.

The Razorbacks come in way overvalued after a perfect 5-0 ATS start this season.  They were down 42-17 late in the 4th quarter last week to Texas A&M but scored two touchdowns in the final minutes to cover the 14.5-point spread and remain unbeaten ATS. Now they are basically a pick ‘em here against a team like Tennessee that has way more talent than they do.

Tennessee is 21-5 ATS in its last 26 road games off two straight games where they forced one or fewer turnovers.  The Vols are 19-6 ATS in their last 25 games as road favorites of 7 points or less.  Roll with Tennessee Saturday.

15* Texas A&M/South Carolina ESPN ANNIHILATOR on South Carolina +10

It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the South Carolina Gamecocks off their 24-52 road loss to LSU last time out.  But they’ve had two weeks to get ready for Texas A&M and will have been practicing with a chip on their shoulder leading up to this game.  Look for them to give Texas A&M a run for its money in this game.

South Carolina has played well at home this season.  They only lost to Tennessee 27-31 as 3.5-point dogs and upset Auburn 30-22 as 3-point dogs.  And we just saw Auburn blast LSU last week 48-11, so that win over Auburn looks even better, and the loss to LSU was clearly just an aberration.  South Carolina also played Florida pretty tough on the road earlier this season and blasted Vanderbilt, so that loss to LSU was their only bad performance this year.

Texas A&M is getting too much respect from oddsmakers here as a double-digit road favorite.  They lost by 28 at Alabama and beat a bad Mississippi State team 28-14 in their previous two road games.  They failed to cover last week against Arkansas at home and gave up 461 total yards to the Razorbacks.  

South Carolina’s improved offense will move the football and score points on this Texas A&M defense that has now allowed 31-plus points in three of their five games this season.  The only exceptions were against Vanderbilt and Mississippi State.  And keep in mind they only beat Vanderbilt 17-12, while South Carolina blasted Vanderbilt 41-7.

The Gamecocks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.  Take South Carolina Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State +13

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on Kansas State this week off their worst performance of the season last week in a 10-37 road loss to West Virginia.  I had West Virginia in that game because I believed the Mountaineers to be way underrated with the stats they had put up this season.  And it proved to be the case as the Mountaineers dominated from start to finish.

But now Kansas State comes back as a 13-point home dog to Oklahoma State, a team that is overrated in my eyes.  The Cowboys are 4-1 this season and finally lost their first game last week to Texas.  Spencer Sanders is a turnover machine and the Cowboys lost that game due to committing four turnovers.  You just cannot trust Sanders to hold onto the football.

Kansas State had only committed two turnovers in their first five games.  But they uncharacteristically gave it away three times against West Virginia last week, which cost them.  Look for the Wildcats to get back to taking care of the football and winning in the areas that they can control, which will keep them in this game for four quarters.

Kansas State is 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home meetings with Oklahoma State.  The Cowboys will be playing just their second road game this season.  Their first was at Kansas, which doesn’t count.  This is their stiffest test of the season yet in my opinion even though they were small home favorites over WVU, Iowa State and Texas.  K-State has faced the gauntlet with road games at Oklahoma, TCU and WVU winning the first two of those road games outright as 28-point and 11.5-point dogs.

The Wildcats are 14-1 ATS in their last 15 games off a blowout road loss by 21 points or more.  Kansas State is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog.  The Wildcats are 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 games following an ATS loss.  Take Kansas State Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Liberty +15

What more does Liberty have to do to get some respect from oddsmakers? They have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS this season under second-year head coach Hugh Freeze, who is making the most of his second chance here after getting ousted from Ole Miss.  This guy is just a great recruiter and has underrated talent again here, including Auburn QB transfer Malik Willis.

There has been nothing fluky about Liberty’s 5-0 start either as their stats have been off the charts.  They are scoring 40 points per game and averaging 494 yards per game on offense.  They are giving up just 24.2 points per game and 303 yards per game on defense.  They are outscoring opponents by 15.8 points per game and outgaining them by nearly 200 yards per game.

Liberty already has a win over an ACC team in Syracuse.  They beat the Orange as 3-point road favorites by a final of 38-21 a few weeks back.  And now the Flames are in the perfect spot here with two weeks to prepare for Virginia Tech as they are coming off their bye week.  Meanwhile, Virginia Tech has to be a tired team as it will be playing for a 7th straight week here.

The fatigue is starting to show defensively for the Hokies.  They are giving up 30.5 points per game and 459 yards per game this season.  They were fortunate to win last week 42-35 over Louisville as they gave up 548 yards and were outgained by 82 yards, but they won the turnover battle 3-0.

Liberty is now 28-13 ATS in its last 41 games overall.  Hugh Freeze is 58-35 ATS as a head coach in his career, making him clearly one of the most underrated coaches in college football.  Justin Fuente is 1-8 ATS vs. good rushing teams that average 230 or more rushing yards per game as the coach of Virginia Tech.

The Hokies give up a whopping 195 rushing yards per game and 5.2 per carry this season. Well, Liberty averages 257 rushing yards per game and 5.6 per carry.  The Flames will be able to run the ball on the Hokies and have a legitimate shot to win this game outright.  Getting more than two touchdowns with them is a gift given the spot with the Flames off their bye week.  Bet Liberty Saturday.

20* BYU/Boise State FS1 No-Brainer on BYU -3

The BYU Cougars are legitimately one of the best teams in the country.  They are off to a 7-0 start this season while also going a sensational 6-1 ATS in those seven games.  Oddsmakers haven’t been able to catch up with them, and I don’t think they have here either in their biggest game of the season against Boise State.  They should be more than 3-point favorites.

There has been nothing fluky about this start for BYU.  They are loaded on offense with a unit that is putting up 44.4 points and 527.7 yards per game.  They are also outstanding on defense, giving up just 13.4 points and 281.3 yards per game.  They are outscoring their opponents by 31.0 points per game and outgaining them by 246.4 yards per game.

I think the verdict is still out on Boise State.  They are usually the best team in the Mountain West year in and year out, but they have only played two games this season against very suspect competition.  And they only returned 11 starters this year.  They beat a bad Utah State team 42-13, which is the same Utah State team that went on to lose 38-7 to San Diego State last week.  And they beat Air Force 49-30 but still gave up 415 rushing yards in that game and were outgained by 25 yards.  That’s the same Air Force team that was upset 17-6 by San Jose State the game prior.

Zach Wilson is having a monster season at quarterback for BYU.  He has thrown for 2,152 yards with a 19-to-2 TD/INT ratio while competing 74.6% of his passes.  He is legitimately one of the best quarterbacks in the country.  And he wants revenge from 2 years ago when BYU lost 16-21 at Boise State.  Wilson drove the Cougars down from their own 17-yard line to the Boise State 2 before being sacked on the final play of the game.  You can bet he and his Cougars teammates have not forgotten the pain from that defeat.

Boise State doesn’t know who will start at quarterback for them on Friday yet.  Hank Bachmeier is supposed to be their starter, but he didn’t travel with the team against Air Force likely due to Covid-19.  Junior transfer Jack Sears played well in his place, but he would clearly be a downgrade from Bachmeier if he cannot go again.  Either way, I still think BYU rolls no matter who is under center for the Broncos.

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Boise State) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game against a team that outgained their last two opponents by 125 or more yards are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Cougars are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet BYU Friday.

15* Wyoming/Colorado State MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on Wyoming -3.5

Wyoming’s loss to Nevada wasn’t a bad loss in the opener.  Nevada is one of the best teams in the Mountain West this year and oddsmakers don’t realize it.  So Wyoming was a 2.5-point favorite but only lost 34-37 and showed a lot of heart in coming back in that game.

Then last week the Cowboys’ true colors showed in their dominant 31-7 win over Hawaii as 3-point underdogs.  The Cowboys dominated that game, racking up 393 total yards while holding a very good Hawaii offense to just 233 total yards.  They are a power running team that can run on anyone as they had 281 rushing yards against the Warriors.  And they have a great defense year in and year out.

Colorado State is not a team you want to back early in the season.  They are a team in transition under first-year head coach Steve Addazio, who got ousted from Boston College last year.  They don’t have the players to run the schemes he wants to run.  They have been a spread passing team the last few years, but Addazio wants to bring over his power running game from Boston College.

The Rams got off to a rough start this season, losing 17-38 at Fresno State despite being a 2.5-point favorite.  That’s the same Fresno State team that lost 34-19 to Hawaii in their opener, and we just saw how Hawaii fared against Wyoming last week.  It’s not always A plus B equals C, but it’s definitely worth noting how those teams did against Hawaii to gauge how this game will play out.

Wyoming simply has Colorado State’s number.  The Cowboys are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Rams with three of those wins coming by double-digits.  And Wyoming was never more than a 4.5-point favorite in any of the four and were an underdog in two of them.  Once again, the price is too cheap on the Cowboys here.

Wyoming is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as road favorites.  Wyoming is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games as a favorite.  Take Wyoming Thursday.

20* Packers/49ers NFC No-Brainer on Green Bay -2.5

Note: I locked in the Packers -2.5 with a personal bet myself at William Hill early Monday morning as well.  With the new info that has come out since with Jimmy G and Kittle both out, plus the Covid issues, I'd still take the Packers as a 20* up to -6.5.  Thanks.

I’ve been fading the 49ers for weeks and will continue to do so Thursday as they host the Green Bay Packers.  The 49ers simply have too many injuries to be able to beat a team the caliber of the Packers, just as they couldn’t beat a team that caliber of the Seahawks last week.  And I believe the Packers are as good or better than the Seahawks this season.

The 49ers are playing without Richard Sherman, Nick Bosa, Solomon Thomas, Dee Ford, K’Waun Williams, Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr.  Now Jimmy G and George Kittle have been added to the injury list and are both questionable for Thursday.  Deebo Samuel missed last game and likely won’t return on a short week with a hamstring injury.  Not to mention, Tevin Coleman, Kwon Alexander, Dante Pettis and Jacquiski Tartt all have the questionable label.  They are missing 20-plus contributors to injury.

The Packers have some injury issues of their own as RB Aaron Jones, T David Bakhtiari and CB Kevin King all missed last game with injuries.  I’m hopeful a few of them return, but either way the Packers’ injury situation is a lot prettier than that of the 49ers.  And that was a bad spot for the Packers last week and a great one for the Vikings, which is why we were on the Vikings +7 in that one.

The Vikings were coming off their bye week and got a healthy Dalvin Cook back from injury.  Cook torched the Packers for four touchdowns, but he was really Minnesota’s only offense as they finished with 324 total yards, a reasonable showing for the Packers.  Green Bay had 400 total yards in that game.

The Packers responded well from their first loss of the season against the Bucs with a 35-20 win at Houston.  And they will respond well from this loss to Minnesota.  Adding to the Packers’ motivation here is the fact that they lost both meetings with the 49ers last season, including in the playoffs.  They will want revenge here, similar to the Seahawks wanting revenge on the 49ers last week when we cashed them in as our 25* NFC West Game of the Year.  The Packers will have their revenge in a big way Thursday night.

Green Bay is 40-23 ATS in its last 63 games off a loss by 6 points or less.  Plays on underdogs or PK (Green Bay) - a team that commits 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game against a team that forces 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game, after two straight games where they forced one or fewer turnovers are 29-9 (76.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Packers Thursday.

15* MAC Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Buffalo -13

The Buffalo Bulls should be the best team in the MAC this year.  They went 8-5 last season and while they didn’t win the MAC, I would have had them favored over every other team in the conference.  They were 2nd in the MAC with a +138.0 yards per game differential and only got better as the season went on.

Now head coach Lance Leipold has his best team yet with 15 returning starters, making the Bulls the 16th-most experienced team in the country.  They also got in nine spring practices, which was the second-most in the MAC.  That’s a huge advantage heading into a shortened season like this.

The Bulls are loaded everywhere on offense with eight returning starters.  They have two 1,000-yard rushers in Jaret Patterson (1,799 yards, 19 TD, 5.8/carry last year) and Kevin Marks (1,035, 8 TD, 4.6/carry).  Each of their top three receivers are back as are their top two quarterbacks.  Defensively they return seven starters from a unit that gave up just 21.3 points per game last year and know how to get after opposing quarterbacks with 43 sacks last year.

Northern Illinois is a mess.  Thomas Hammock had to take over late in the process last year.  The Huskies went just 5-7 with four losses by 18 points or more.  And now he returns just 10 starters and loses a ton of players to the transfer portal.  Now this is going to be a very young team this year with five projected freshmen starters and five sophomores projected to start.  It’s going to get worse before it gets better for the Huskies.

The Bulls are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 conference games.  Buffalo is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  The Huskies are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as home underdogs.  Those extra spring practices plus all the experience returning will benefit the Bulls in a big way early in the 2020 season.  Take Buffalo Wednesday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Kent State -4.5

Sean Lewis has Kent State on the rise.  He led them to their first bowl games since 2012 in just his second season on the job last year.  The won their final four games of the season all in upset fashion over Buffalo, Ball State, Eastern Michigan and then Utah State in the bowl.

Now the Golden Flashes have 13 returning starters and should pick up right where they left off last year.  They have the best QB in the MAC in senior Dustin Crum, who completed 69.2% of his passes for 2,625 yards with a ridiculous 20-to-2 TD/INT ratio last year.  Crum also rushed for 707 yards and 6 scores on the ground.  Four starters are back on the offensive line along with leading receiver Isaiah McKoy.  They do return just six starters on defense, but they get each of their top three tacklers back.

Chris Creighton deserves some credit for getting a program like Eastern Michigan to a bowl game in three of the last four seasons.  But he has his hands full with this team in 2020.  The Eagles only return 11 starters and not much talent.  They lose QB Mike Glass, leading rusher Shaq Vann and leading receiver Arthur Jackson.  They lose three of their top four tacklers on defense including two guys who had 108 and 128 tackles.  This is a young team with four freshmen projected to start.

The Golden Flashes are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They come into 2020 with a ton of momentum off their impressive finish last year.  Bet Kent State Wednesday.

20* Bucs/Giants ESPN Monday No-Brainer on UNDER 47

The New York Giants have been an UNDER machine this season.  They have a terrible offense and an underrated defense.  The UNDER is 5-2 in their seven games this year and six of the seven have seen 45 or fewer combined points.  The only exception was their game against the Dallas Cowboys, who have arguably the worst defense in the NFL.

Speaking of underrated defenses, the Tampa Bay Bucs give up just 20.3 points and 291.3 yards per game.  Their offense gets all their credit, but it is their defense being the reason that they are so good.  In fact, Football Outsiders has the Bucs ranked as the top defense in the entire NFL this season.

The Giants have given up 22 or fewer points in four of their seven games this season.  I think they can limit what the Bucs do offensively similar to when the Bears held the Bucs to just 19 points a few weeks back.  The Bucs have scored a ton of points the last two weeks since against the Packers and Raiders, but many of those points were created by their defense, and that’s unlikely to continue happening.

The Giants have the 30th-ranked offense according to Football Outsiders.  They average just 17.4 points and 282.4 yards per game this season.  Daniel Jones really misses his best weapon in Saquon Barkley.  And now he’s left with one of the worst set of skill players in the NFL.  I don’t expect the Giants to do much offensively to contribute to the total points scored in this game.

Plays on the UNDER on any team where the total is 42.5 to 49 (Tampa Bay) - after a game where they committed no turnovers against an opponent after a game where they committed three or more turnovers are 41-14 (74.5%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

25* NFC West GAME OF THE YEAR on Seattle Seahawks -3

It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the San Francisco 49ers this week.  They are coming off two upset wins as underdogs over the Rams and Patriots.  It’s clear the Patriots are broken and that win doesn’t mean as much as the 33-6 final score would indicate.  Now the 49ers have to face a real team in the Seattle Seahawks.

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Seahawks after they blew a 27-14 lead and lost to the Cardinals in overtime last week.  Russell Wilson had his worst game of the season with three interceptions.  The Seahawks hadn’t turned the ball over more than once prior to that game.  Russell is in a bounce-back spot and wants revenge on the 49ers after they took the NFC West title from them in Week 17 last year.

The Seahawks have been able to make up for a suspect defense with an offense that is one of the best in the NFL in putting up 33.8 points per game this season.  And there’s a good chance the Seahawks get back their leader on defense in safety Jamal Adams this week.

The 49ers’ injury report just got even worse after last week.  They lost RB Jeff Wilson Jr. to an ankle injury late, and he had three touchdowns against the Patriots.  They don’t really have any good healthy running backs left after also losing Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostert to season-ending injury.  The 49ers now have at least 19 contributors that are out due to injury this season.

New starter Jerick McKinnon has been ineffective, which is why everyone else is starting ahead of him.  And they have also been using Deebo Samuel a lot in the running game, but now he is out with a hamstring injury.  Samuel was becoming their best playmaker the last few weeks, so it’s a big loss.  Jimmy Ward, Jaquiski Tartt and Kwon Alexander are all questionable to play this week and they are already missing a handful of starters on D.

The Seahawks are 6-0 ATS after allowing more than 350 passing yards in their previous game over the last two seasons.  Seattle is 8-1 ATS after allowing 450 or more total yards in its previous game over the last three years, coming back to win by 8.8 yards per game in this spot.  The Seahawks are 32-15-4 ATS in their last 51 games following a loss.  Bet the Seahawks Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Detroit Lions +3

The Detroit Lions have some momentum right now after going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall to live up to their potential.  All three wins came on the road over the Cardinals, Jaguars and Falcons.  And their last-second win over the Falcons last week keeps their momentum going.  Their only defeat came by 6 against one of the best teams in the NFL in the Saints.

Now the Lions host the Colts, who are getting too much respect from oddsmakers as 3-point road favorites here.  The Colts are 4-2 but they have played one of the easiest schedules in the NFL, while the Lions have played one of the toughest.  The Lions have faced four teams with winning records, while the Colts have only faced two in the Bears and Browns, who are both overrated.

Philip Rivers looks like a shell of his former self.  He has a 7-to-6 TD/INT ratio on the season.  Matthew Stafford is clearly the better quarterback with the better weapons in this matchup.  He has a 10-to-4 TD/INT ratio this season and has been one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the NFL.  And he has been even better since getting his favorite target in Kenny Golloday back from injury after missing the first two games, both losses by the Lions.

The Lions have more talent on defense than they get credit for too, and that unit has played up to their potential the last two weeks in limiting the Jaguars to 16 points and the Lions to 22 points.  And I think they’ll continue to have success against a Colts offense that hasn’t been great despite feasting on one of the easiest schedules of opposing defenses in the NFL.  Football outsiders has them ranked as the 22nd-best offense in the NFL.  Football outsiders also identifies the Colts have playing the 32nd-ranked schedule in the NFL thus far, while the Lions have played the 14th-toughest schedule.

Frank Reich is 2-9 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that give up 24 or more points per game as the coach of the Colts.  I believe the wrong team is favored in this matchup and Detroit has a great chance to win this game outright.  Take the Lions Sunday.

15* Vikings/Packers NFC North ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +7

It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Minnesota Vikings (1-5) and sell high on the Green Bay Packers (5-1).  And an easy way to see that the Vikings are undervalued while the Packers are overvalued is to compare this line to the line from Week 1.  The Vikings were actually favored over the Packers in Week 1, and now they are 7-point dogs, which has been at least an 8-point adjustment.  That’s too much.

The Vikings are better than their 1-5 record would indicate.  They have played the 4th-toughest schedule in the NFL and have two 1-point losses to two of the best teams in the NFL in the Seahawks and Titans.  And after giving away that game to the Seahawks, they laid an egg in last game against the Falcons with a 23-40 home loss.

The Vikings have since had a bye week to recover from that loss to the Falcons.  And you know Mike Zimmer will have this team improving greatly with two weeks to prepare for the Packers.  You also know that the Vikings will be highly motivated to face a division rival and first place team in the Packers.  This is their chance to really turn their season around, and they will make the most of it.  Getting 7 points with the Vikings is too much.

The bye week has also allowed star RB Dalvin Cook to return from an injury that kept him out against the Falcons.  This offense really goes as Cook goes.  He has rushed for 489 yards and seven touchdowns while averaging 5.3 yards per carry in five games.  He also has 12 receptions for 64 yards and needs involved more in the passing game.  Justin Jefferson (28 receptions, 537 yards, 3 TD) and Adam Thielen (32, 415, 7 TD) are great weapons for Cousins outside.

While the Vikings are getting healthier on both sides of the ball with their bye week, the Packers have a lot of injuries with guys listed as questionable.  T David Bakhtiari missed last week with a chest injury and is questionable.  S Darnell Savage, RB Aaron Jones, DL Tyler Lancaster and CB Kevin King are all questionable as well.  Jones would be a huge loss as he has 550 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns this year.

Minnesota is 54-31 ATS in its last 85 games off two or more consecutive losses.  Zimmer is a perfect 8-0 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 points or more as the coach of Minnesota.  This 100% never lost system shows a lot about Zimmer and his ability to get the most out of his teams in this situation.  Take the Vikings Sunday.

15* Steelers/Ravens AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore -3

No question the Pittsburgh Steelers are a legit 6-0 and one of the best teams in the NFL.  But it’s time to ‘sell high’ on the Steelers this week.  They are 5-1 ATS this season and are starting to become a public team.  And you can tell there’s line value with the Ravens this week when you consider this line was Ravens -6 last week and now it’s -3 to -3.5 this week.

The only thing that happened to move that line was the Steelers going on the road and beating the Titans 27-24 last week.  Well, I had the Steelers as a free pick in that game because I stated that the Titans were one of the most fraudulent 5-0 teams in the history of the NFL.  And that came to fruition, even though the Steelers still nearly found a way to lose that game.

Now the Steelers have to go on the road for a second straight week and face a rested, hungry Ravens team coming off their bye week.  The Ravens have been dominant this season at 5-1 with their only loss coming to the Kansas City Chiefs.  They five wins have come by an average of 17.8 points per game.  They should be more than 3-point home favorites here over the Steelers given the situation.

Yes, the Steelers have been great against the run this year, but they haven’t had to face a mobile QB like the one they will be up against Sunday in Lamar Jackson.  All Jackson has done is lead a Ravens offense that is averaging a whopping 29.8 points per game.  And this is definitely an improved Baltimore defense, one that gives up only 17.3 points and 339.8 yards per game.

You definitely want to be backing John Harbaugh off a bye week.  He is 9-2 ATS off a bye as the coach of the Ravens.  Mike Tomlin is 6-16 ATS off a win by 6 points or less as the coach of the Steelers.  The Ravens are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 vs. AFC opponents, including 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. AFC North foes.  The Steelres are 3-7-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

Plays on any team (Baltimore) - off a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent off a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are 72-34 (67.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Ravens Sunday.

20* AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on Buffalo Bills -3

I made my worst pick of the season last week on the Patriots over the 49ers as a 25*.  I apologize to my clients for that one.  I thought the Patriots were affected by only having one padded practice in the two weeks prior leading up to their losses to the Chiefs and Broncos.  And they had a full week of practice last week to improve.

It didn’t matter.  The Patriots are clearly broken after losing 6-33 at home to the 49ers for their third consecutive loss.  That followed up a 12-18 home loss to the Denver Broncos as 7-point favorites.  And before that they lost 10-26 on the road to the Kansas City Chiefs.

So, the Patriots have scored an average of 9.3 points per game in their last three games.  Their offense is way broken.  Cam Newton has two touchdown passes against seven interceptions on the season and the Panthers are glad they moved on from him.  He is in jeopardy of losing his starting job.  It doesn’t matter who they go with because the backups haven’t been any better.  Their quarterbacks have combined for three touchdowns against 11 interceptions on the season.

The usually steady Patriots defense is missing too many players to be effective last year.  A banged-up 49ers offense just put up 33 points and 467 total yards on them last week.  That came a week after the Broncos scored on their first six possessions of the game, albeit all field goals but they still had no problem moving the football on the Patriots.

The Bills are the real deal this season.  Their only two losses came against two of the best teams in the NFL in the Titans and Chiefs, who are a combined 11-2 this season.  They have been frustrated for years by the Patriots, and now it’s finally their turn to take over this division.  They will be highly motivated to do just that Sunday.

Buffalo’s 18-10 win at the New York Jets last week was very misleading.  They somehow had to settle for eight field goal attempts in that game, and only made six of them.  But they outgained the Jets 422 to 190 for the game, so it was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  And their defense completely shut down the Jets after giving up 10 early points.

Buffalo boasts one of the best offenses in the NFL in scoring 24.9 points and averaging 376.7 yards per game.  Jose Allen is having an MVP-caliber season thus far.  He is completing 67.6% of his passes for 2,018 yard with a 16-to-4 TD/INT ratio.  He has also rushed for 204 yards and three scores as one of the best dual-threats in the game, something the Patriots will struggle with.

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Bills off three straight ATS losses.  They should be closer to 7-point favorites in this game.  The Bills are 24-7 ATS in their last 31 games off three or more consecutive ATS losses.  New England is 0-6 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 375 or more yards per game over the last two seasons.  The Patriots are 0-6 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more yards per attempt over the last two years.  Bet the Bills Sunday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Texas Tech +15

It looks like the betting public is back on the Oklahoma bandwagon after back-to-back wins and covers over Texas in overtime and TCU 33-14.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Sooners now laying more than two touchdowns on the road to the Texas Tech Red Raiders.

Texas Tech has played very well at home in Big 12 play this year.  The Red Raiders held a 15-point lead in the final minutes against Texas but found a way to lost 56-63 in overtime.  But they redeemed themselves last week beating an underrated West Virginia team 34-27 as 2.5-point home dogs.  And that gives them the confidence to hang with Oklahoma here.

Texas Tech can match Oklahoma score for score.  You just can’t trust this Oklahoma team to lay these kinds of numbers with how terrible their defense is.  They are giving up 33.5 points per game in conference play and even allowed 38 points to Kansas State and 37 to Iowa State.

Texas Tech wants revenge after eight straight losses to the Sooners in this series.  And the last three in Lubbock have been very tight with the Sooners winning by 5, 7 and 12 points.  I think we see more of the same here with this game decided by 14 points or fewer.

Oklahoma is 6-22 ATS in its last 28 games vs. teams that allow 8 or more passing yards per attempt.  Lincoln Riley is 1-8 ATS vs. teams that allow a 62% completion percentage or worse as the coach of the Sooners.  Oklahoma is 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games.  The Red Raiders are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games as home underdogs.  Roll with Texas Tech Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on West Virginia -3.5

This is the classic unranked team favored over the ranked team situation.  Since 2017, unranked teams favored by 4 points or fewer against ranked teams have gone 11-2 SU & 11-2 ATS.  I don’t play every one of these situations, but this one makes sense for the following reasons.

Kansas State is 4-1 despite getting outgained in four of their five games this season.  And the only team they outgained was Kansas, and that was only by 61 yards last week in a very misleading final score.  The Wildcats are getting outgained by 56.2 yards per game on the season.

Unlike Kansas State, West Virginia is much better than its 3-2 record would indicate.  The Mountaineers have outgained all five of their opponents this season.  They are outgunning teams by nearly 200 yards per game.  They are averaging 460.8 yards per game on offense and giving up just 261.8 yards per game on defense.  They are probably the single-most underrated team in the Big 12 this season.

Kansas State was able to get past TCU and Kansas without starting QB Skyler Thompson. But this is the game where his loss finally shows up.  New starter Will Howard has been able to manage the game without him, but he’s going to have to step up and make more plays if the Wildcats are to win this week.  And I just don’t think he has it in him.  He completed just 42.1% of his passes for 117 yards with no touchdowns and an interception against TCU.

West Virginia is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games as a home favorite.  The Mountaineers win and win big here to hand the Wildcats their first conference loss of the season.  Take West Virginia Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Memphis/Cincinnati OVER 55

The oddsmakers have set this total too low for Saturday between Memphis and Cincinnati in a huge AAC showdown.  The weather looks like perfect scoring conditions with a temperature in the 50s, sunny and only 5-10 MPH winds.  This game should sail OVER the total Saturday.

Memphis is a dead nuts OVER team.  They score 38.8 points per game and put up 569.8 yards per game this season.  They give up 33.0 points per game and 567.8 yards per game on the year.  Their style will lead Cincinnati to have to try and get in a shootout with them.

The Bearcats clearly have a great defense and that showed last week in their 42-13 win at SMU.  But that was an SMU team that just lost their top receiver to injury.  Memphis has an offense that is just loaded with talent everywhere and will find a way to hang a big number on this Cincinnati defense.  And the Bearcats can keep pace as they are averaging 37.3 points per game on the season.

The OVER is 12-3 in Tigers last 15 games as an underdog.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

25* Sun Belt GAME OF THE YEAR on Georgia State +3

The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers are 5-0 this season and ranked No. 20 in the country.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on this unbeaten team as they lose their first game of the season against a very underrated Georgia State squad Saturday.

Coastal Carolina lost starting QB Grant McCall to an injury last week and were still able to beat Georgia Southern.  McCall is doubtful this week, and I don’t give them much of a chance to beat Georgia State without him.  McCall has an 11-to-1 TD/INT ratio this season and has rushed for 184 yards and three scores.  It’s a huge loss to say the least even though it didn’t matter last week because Georgia Southern wasn’t preparing for backup Fred Payton.  Now with a week of game film on Payton, Georgia State will be prepared.

Georgia State is very close to being 4-0 this season.  They lost to Louisiana-Lafayette in overtime 31-34.  They crushed East Carolina 49-29 as a 2-point dog.  They lost to Arkansas State 52-59 on the road in a game they deserved to win.  And they went on the road and upset Troy 36-34 as 1.5-point dogs.  The markets have mis-priced this team all season as they have been a dog in all four games against a brutal schedule.

Coastal Carolina is a team that prefers to run the football in averaging 44 rushing attempts for 188 yards per game and 4.3 per carry this season.  Well, Georgia State has been the best team in the Sun Belt against the run, giving up just 97 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry.

I just like Georgia State head coach Shawn Elliott who has gotten this team to a bowl game in two of his three seasons on the job.  And this is his best team yet with 16 returning starters.  The offense has great balance with 237 rushing yards per game and 229 passing yards per game.  New starting QB Cornelius Brown is a great dual-threat with 917 passing yards and a 9-to-4 TD/INT ratio to go with 186 rushing yards and four scores.

Plays on home teams (Georgia State) - a great rushing team averaging at least 4.9 yards per rush against a good rushing team averaging between 4.3 and 4.8 yards, after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards last game are 35-10 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Georgia State Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston College +32

Note: I still like Boston College as a 20* play at the new opening line of +24 since the news that Trevor Lawrence has been announced out with Covid-19.  It’s a 20* all the way down to +21.

Boston College just continues to be a money maker every year.  They are 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS this season.  They are coming off a 21-point win over Georgia Tech last week.  Their only two losses this season came to North Carolina and Virginia Tech, which are two of the best teams in the ACC.

They only lost 22-26 to North Carolina and were only outgained by 48 yards, which was one of their most impressive performances of the season.  And their loss to Virginia Tech was very misleading as they were only outgained by 26 yards in that contest, but they committed five turnovers which led to the blowout.  They can hang with Clemson here.

Clemson only beat a terrible Syracuse team by 26 last week as a 47-point favorite.  And that was even with winning the turnover battle 4-1 for the game.  Now this is a terrible spot for Clemson.  They have a huge game on deck next week at Notre Dame.  The Fighting Irish are unbeaten and the No. 4 ranked team in the country.  

They will clearly be looking ahead to that game.  They won’t be looking to play their starters late in this one if it gets out of hand, so the back door will always be open if we need it.  But I fully expect Boston College to be covering wire-to-wire and giving Clemson a run for its money.  The Tigers’ main goal will be making sure everyone is healthy heading into the Notre Dame game.  And obviously, not having the best player in the country in Lawrence is a huge downgrade and worth more than the 7-8 points the oddsmakers have adjusted for his loss.

The Eagles are a sensational 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 ACC games.  Boston College is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games as a road underdog.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Boston College Saturday.

20* Hawaii/Wyoming FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 60

The Wyoming Cowboys have been a dead nuts UNDER team under 7th-year head coach Craig Bohl.  They have an elite defense and a terrible offense seemingly year in and year out.  And I believe that to be the case again in 2020.

Indeed, Wyoming has scored just 25.4 PPG, 20.7 PPG and 23.5 PPG the last three years, respectively.  But the Cowboys have only allowed 17.8 PPG, 22.0 PPG and 17.5 PPG the last three years, respectively, as well.

The 34-37 loss to Nevada in the opener has this total inflated tonight.  But Nevada has one of the best offenses in the Mountain West this year under Jay Norvell with 10 starters back on that side of the ball.  They lit up this Wyoming defense, which wasn’t prepared for them.  And Wyoming had to throw the ball around the yard to try and play catch up, which isn’t their style.

Look for Wyoming to get back to their preferred game plan, which is to run the football and play elite defense.  The last two years Wyoming averaged 215 rushing yards per game and only 136 passing in 2019 and 199 rushing and 131 passing in 2018.  They clearly have QB problems again this year after starter Sean Chambers went out with a leg injury early against Nevada.  Backup Levi Williams went just 16-of-31 passing in his absence and looked very inaccurate.

Hawaii scored 34 points on a bad Fresno State defense in the opener, but their defense came to play in limiting the Bulldogs to just 19 points.  The offense is learning a new system under first-year head coach Todd Graham and the defense may have to carry the way early.

The last two matchups in this series went way UNDER the total.  They combined for just 30 points in a 17-13 home victory for Hawaii in 2018.  And the year prior they were tied 21-21 at the end of regulation before Wyoming won 28-21 in overtime.

Wyoming is 17-3 UNDER in its last 20 home games after playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored.  Again, this number is inflated after their 71-point outburst against Nevada last week.  It's also going to be cold in Laramie Friday night with 15-25 MPH winds.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

25* NFL Thursday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Carolina Panthers -2.5

The Carolina Panthers are much better than they are getting credit for this season.  Matt Rhule is doing a tremendous job of getting the most out of this team, and Teddy Bridgewater continues to be a covering machine dating back to his time with the Vikings and Saints.  It was a great fit for the Panthers getting Bridewater, and he has had them competitive in every game they’ve played.

The Panthers are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They beat the Chargers and Falcons on the road while also topping the Cardinals at home.  They only lost by a touchdown to the Bears at home and had a chance to force OT at the end.  And last week they were in a tough spot facing a Saints team off a bye on the road, yet nearly knocked them off in a 24-27 loss as 7-point dogs.

And there’s good news on the horizon for the Panthers.  Christian McCaffrey returned to practice Monday and there’s a very real possibility he’ll play Thursday.  Either way, they have still been winning without him and will continue to do so if he doesn’t play.  Getting him back would just be an added bonus.  And I like backing home teams on these short weeks when possible, and I think there’s a ton of value getting the Panthers at -2.5 here under a field goal.

It’s going to be tough for the Falcons to get back up off the mat after the way they lost to the Lions Sunday.  All Todd Gurley had to do was not score at the end and they could have kicked the game-winning field goal.  Instead, they left just enough time for Matthew Stafford and Lions to drive down the field and score the game-winning touchdown on the final play of the game.  I just don’t see how they can possibly bounce back from that gut-wrenching loss at the buzzer, especially not a 1-6 team like the Falcons with zero playoff aspirations.

The Panthers already beat the Falcons 23-16 in their first meeting this season in Atlanta.  They racked up 437 total yards on the Falcons and held them to 369.  They led 20-7 at half and really should have won by more.  Bridewater went 27-of-36 passing for 313 yards and two touchdowns, while Mike Davis rushed for 89 yards on 16 carries.  Both should have great games against this awful Atlanta defense that is giving up 29.6 points and 425.9 yards per game this season.

It’s also worth noting that this will be just the 2nd outdoor game of the season for the Falcons, who are built to play in a dome.  In their first, they lost 16-30 at Green Bay as their offense just couldn’t get anything going.  Their speed just doesn’t play nearly as well on a grass field like the one Carolina has.  The Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last five games on grass.  Bet the Panthers Thursday.

20* South Alabama/Georgia Southern ESPN No-Brainer on South Alabama +4

I’ve been a lot more impressed with South Alabama than Georgia Southern this season despite both teams having identical 3-2 records.  The Jaguars have played the much tougher schedule and have exceeded expectations in four of their five games by going 4-1 ATS.

Georgia Southern is 3-2, but its three wins have come against Campbell, LA Monroe and UMass which are three of the worst teams they could have possibly faced.  And they only beat Campbell by a single point 27-26 as 34.5-point favorites.  They also only beat LA Monroe 35-30 as 19.5-point favorites.

That gives them a common opponent.  Both have faced Louisiana-Monroe this season.  South Alabama crushed LA-Monroe 38-14 while Georgia Southern only beat them by 5.  The wrong team is favored in this Sun Belt showdown tonight.

Plays against favorite of 3.5 to 10 points (GA Southern) - off a road loss, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 33-8 (80.5%) ATS since 1992.

The Jaguars are 6-1 ATS in their last seven conference games.  South Alabama is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games after allowing more than 280 passing yards last game.  Bet South Alabama Thursday.

20* MNF TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bears/Rams UNDER 45.5

Two of the best defensive teams in the NFL square off Monday night when the Los Angeles Rams host the Chicago Bears.  Points are going to be hard to come by in this one, so we’ll side with the UNDER 45.5 points here.  Both teams are 4-2 to the UNDER this season.

The Bears are 5-1 this season behind a defense that is giving up just 19.3 points and 337.2 yards per game.  This defense is the only reason they are 5-1 because their offense has been putrid outside of a couple fourth quarter comebacks against both the lowly Lions and Falcons.  The Bears average just 21.3 points and 312.8 yards per game.

The Rams are off to a 4-2 start this season behind a defense that gives up only 19.0 points and 318.5 yards per game.  The Rams are also running at a much slower pace this season and not throwing the ball all over the yard.  Instead, they have become more of a power running team, averaging 31 rush attempts per game compared to only 32 pass attempts.  It’s clear Sean McVey doesn’t exactly trust Jared Goff.

The last two meetings in this series over the past two seasons have been extremely low-scoring.  Indeed, the Rams won 17-7 at home last year for just 24 combined points.  And the Bears won 15-6 in 2018 for 21 combined points during the Rams’ Super Bowl season.

The UNDER is 10-1 in Bears last 11 games following an ATS win.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Bears last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 10-3 in Bears last 13 as road underdogs.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Rams last six October games.  The UNDER is 13-3 in Rams last 16 games as favorites.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on New England Patriots -2.5

It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the New England Patriots this week.  They are coming off two straight losses to the Chiefs and Broncos where they also failed to cover.  Now we are getting them at a great value as only 2.5-point home favorites over the San Francisco 49ers this week.

The losses are easily explainable.  The Patriots have only had one padded practice in the last two weeks due to Covid-19 issues.  They just haven’t had the time together they’ve needed.  Yet they still gave the Chiefs all they wanted even without Cam Newton.  They outgained the Chiefs by 34 yards but lost the turnover battle 4-1, which was the difference.

And last week Newton came back and was a little rusty.  The defense did a good job of holding the Broncos to six field goals to give the offense a chance.  And the Patriots had the ball with a chance to win it in the end.  But they came up short, and you can bet Bill Belichick will have his team playing with a chip on its shoulder.  I can’t remember the last time Belichick lost three straight games.

At the same time, it’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the San Francisco 49ers.  They got their signature win last week against the Rams to bounce back from their embarrassing 43-17 loss to the Dolphins.  But that was a bad spot for the Rams because they were playing their fourth road game in five games with three of those trips all the way out East.  They predictably had an off game, and the 49ers took advantage.

Now the 49ers go from facing a fat and happy Rams team to a pissed off Patriots team.  And the 49ers still have the same issues that got them off to an ugly start this season that included upset home losses as 6.5-point favorites or more to the Cardinals, Eagles and Dolphins.  Their injury report is a mess, and it got worse last week.

The 49ers lost starting RB Raheem Mostert and starting C Ben Garland in the win over the Rams.  They also had T Trent Williams get injured and his return is questionable this week.  They were already missing CB Richard Sherman, C Richburt, DE Bosa, DT Thomas, DE Ford, DE Ansah, LB Alexander and CB Williams.  The only team with possibly a worse injury report than the 49ers is the Eagles.

The Patriots are 49-24-1 ATS in their last 74 games following a loss.  New England is 42-17-2 ATS in its last 61 October games.  Bet the Patriots Sunday.

15* Bucs/Raiders NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Las Vegas +3

The Las Vegas Raiders are better than they are getting credit for this season.  That is the case again here as they are coming off their bye week yet they are still 3-point home underdogs to the Tampa Bay Bucs.  We’ll gladly keep backing this team until the markets catch up to them.

The Raiders opened the season with a 34-30 win at Carolina and a 34-24 home win over the Saints.  Both of those wins have aged well.  Their loss to the Patriots wasn’t as bad as the score would indicate as they were only outgained by 31 yards by New England, and that was before the Patriots were hit with Covid-19 and playing well.

Then the Raiders lost 23-30 at home to Buffalo despite outgaining the Bills by 46 yards.  And they bounced back with their most impressive win of the season, a 40-32 win at Kansas City as 11-point dogs.  There was nothing fluky at all about that victory as they racked up 490 yards on the Chiefs and outgained them by 77 yards.

This team is finally starting to look like what John Gruden envisioned when he took over.  They have a high-powered offense that is averaging 30.2 points and 399 yards per game this season.  There is a lot of MVP talk surrounding Russell Wilson and others, but no mention of Derek Carr, which is a shame because he’s having a monster season.  Carr is completing 73.1% of his passes for 1,442 yards with an 11-to-1 TD/INT ratio through five games.

I cashed in the Bucs last week against the Packers, but now it’s a good time to ’sell high’ on them after their misleading 38-10 win.  They basically got 14 of those points off of back-to-back Aaron Rodgers interceptions.  Tom Brady didn’t have to do much as he went 17-of-27 for 166 yards with two touchdowns and no picks.  Brady is definitely showing his age a little more this season, and the Raiders clearly have the better quarterback in this matchup.

Bruce Arians is 3-13 ATS in road games when playing against a good team with a winning percentage between 60% and 75% in all games as a head coach.  The Bucs are 0-6 ATS in this situation over the last three seasons.  Tampa Bay is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  We’ll back the rested, underrated team off their bye week catching points at home this week.  Roll with the Raiders Sunday.

20* AFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Cincinnati Bengals +3.5

The Cincinnati Bengals are much better than their 1-4-1 record would indicate.  They have three losses by 5 points or less as well as a tie this season.  And their only blowout loss came 3-27 to the Baltimore Ravens, the same team that also beat Cleveland 38-6.

The Browns are way overrated with their 4-2 record right now.  Their two losses have come by a combined score of 76-13 to the Ravens and Steelers.  Those results have them actually getting outscored by 4.0 points per game on the season.  To compare, Cincinnati is only getting outscored by 4.7 points per game.  So getting +3.5 with the Bengals at home here is a nice value.

Plus, the Bengals want revenge from their 30-35 road loss to the Browns in their first meeting this season.  And the Bengals are healthier since then as they just got AJ Green back from injury.  They played great against the Colts on the road last week but couldn’t hold onto their 21-0 lead.  Their kicker missed a key FG that could have turned the tide of that game late.

Things have gotten worse for the Browns since.  Their lost their best running back in Nick Chubb, and the best thing they had going for them was their rushing attack this season.  That’s because Baker Mayfield has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL, and now he’s dealing with a rib injury that limited him against the Steelers last week and eventually saw him replaced by Case Keenum.  The Browns are only averaging 189 passing yards per game this season.  Mayfield is averaging just 6.4 yards per attempt with a 10-to-6 TD/INT ratio.

Joe Burrow has looked great this season outside that game against the Ravens in which he didn’t have Green or Ross to throw the ball too.  He is completing 65% of his passes for 1,617 yards through six games this season, averaging 269.5 yards per game.  He torched the Browns for 316 passing yards and three touchdowns without an interception in their first meeting this season, and it should be more of the same Sunday.  Burrow is living up to the hype that made him the #1 pick in the draft.

Cincinnati’s defense has improved greatly the last few weeks, especially against the run.  They are only giving up 103 rushing yards per game in their last three games.  They held the Ravens to just 332 total yards as that game was much closer than the final score would indicate, but unfortunately their offense couldn’t get anything going since Burrow was missing his main weapon in Green.  He’s growing a great chemistry with Green, Higgins and Boyd as the Bengals have some of the most underrated weapons in the NFL.

Cleveland is 0-7 ATS in road games after the first month of the season over the last two seasons.  The Browns are 16-39-1 ATS in their last 56 games following a loss.  Cleveland is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games.  The Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  Take the Bengals Sunday.

15* Michigan/Minnesota Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +3

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are coming off an impressive 11-2 season in PJ Fleck’s third year on the job last season.  It concluded with an upset win over Auburn in the Outback Bowl.  Fleck is proving he is one of the best coaches in college football with what he did at Western Michigan and now what he’s already doing at Minnesota.

Fleck welcomes back 13 starters this season.  He’ll have yet another great offense with nine starters back from a unit that put up 34.1 points and 432 yards per game.  The defense will take a step back with only four starters back, but Fleck has fielded a good defense in all three of his seasons here not once allowing more than 26.5 points per game, and roughly 22 points per game in two of the three seasons.

Jim Harbaugh remains one of the most overrated head coaches in the country.  Last year Michigan was supposed to win the Big Ten with all they had returning, but they fell flat and finished 9-4 after getting crushed by Alabama in the bowl.  Now this is one of his worst, least-experienced teams yet with only 11 returning starters.  The Wolverines lose their top three tacklers on defense and QB Shea Patterson.  They will be going with Dylan McCaffrey, who did not play well in limited action last year at quarterback.

Since 2006, Michigan is 1-20 SU on the road vs. ranked teams and losing by an average of 15 points per game.  The Wolverines are also 6-15 ATS in this spot and failing to cover by 8 points per game.  Enough said.  Bet Minnesota Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on South Carolina/LSU OVER 55

Many expected LSU’s offense to drop off dramatically without Joe Burrow this season.  But they have been just fine on that side of the ball this season.  The problem has been on the defensive side for the Tigers.  So I like the OVER 55 points here in this matchup with South Carolina.

LSU is scoring 38.7 points and averaging 467.3 yards per game this season.  Defensively, the Tigers have been pitiful in giving up 32.0 points and 494.7 yards per game.  So they are combining with their opponents for 70.7 points per game this season, which is much higher than this 55-point total.

South Carolina is improved offensively this season in averaging 30.5 points per game.  Their defense has been average in giving up 24.5 points per game.  The Gamecocks will get their points against this LSU defense, but they will be up against the best offense they have faced this season maybe outside Florida, which lit them up for 38 points.

The OVER is 8-1 in Gamecocks last nine games after gaining fewer than 170 passing yards in their previous game.  The OVER is 4-1 in Tigers last five games overall.  The OVER is 4-0 in Tigers last four games after allowing more than 450 yards in their previous game.  The forecast is great scoring conditions too with 84 degrees and only 7 MPH wins Saturday in Baton Rouge.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Notre Dame/Pitt ACC No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +11

It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Pittsburgh Panthers this week.  They have lost three straight after opening the season 3-0.  Two of the losses came by exactly one point each, so they are very close to being a 5-1 team.

Last week they failed to cover as 11.5-point closing dogs in a 12-point loss to Miami.  Me and my clients cashed in Pitt +13.5 earlier in the week, so they cashed for us.  And I’m back on them again this week for many of the same reason.

Like I stated before, Pitt could easily be 5-1 right now and are undervalued because of their 3-3 record.  They have one of the best defenses in the country, which keeps them in games.  They give up just 20.3 points, 275 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play on the season.

Pitt’s offense has been shaky at times, but they are still putting up a solid 29.3 points per game.  I know starting QB Kenny Pickett did not play last week and is questionable to return this week.  But backup Joey Yellen played well against a good Miami defense last week.  He threw for 277 yards and a touchdown in his Pitt debut.  Another week of practice here will do the Arizona State transfer wonders.  And there’s a chance Pickett plays, which would only be a bonus.

This is as much of a fade of Notre Dame as it is a play on Pitt this week.  The Fighting Irish are ranked 3rd in the country right now, but they are nowhere near the 3rd-best team in the country.  It has them overvalued being ranked this high.

Notre Dame only beat Duke by 14, failed to cover as 20.5-point favorites against Florida State and only beat Louisville by 5 last week as 15.5-point favorites.  That gives Pitt and Notre Dame a common opponent in Louisville.  Pitt beat Louisville 23-20 but it was a bigger blowout than the score would indicate.  The Panthers outgained the Cardinals by 153 yards.  Notre Dame only outgained Louisville by 105 yards in their 12-7 win last week.

So you could make the argument that Pitt is actually the better team based on that head-to-head comparison.  And they certainly aren’t 11 points worse than Notre Dame.  Their defense will keep them in this game, just as it did last time these teams met in 2018.  Pitt only lost 14-19 as 21-point road underdogs.  The Panthers are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The underdog is 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Now Pitt gets Notre Dame at home, and this will be the first road game of the season for the Fighting Irish, which is always a tough situation.

Notre Dame is 9-25 ATS in its last 34 games vs. good defensive teams that give up 285 or fewer yards per game.  The Panthers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Pitt is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games after scoring less than 20 points in its previous game.  There’s a ton of value on the Panthers catching double-digits at home this weekend.  Take Pittsburgh Saturday.

20* Conference USA GAME OF THE MONTH on Rice -3.5

The Rice Owls should be one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  Mike Bloomgren came over from Stanford and has turned the Owls into a poor man’s version of the Cardinal.  And now Bloomgren is in Year 3 with all of his players in place to run his schemes.  They have 17 returning starters.

After starting 0-9 last year with four losses by a single score, the Owls went 3-0 inter final three games with upset victories over Middle Tennessee and North Texas as well as a crushing of UTEP.  Now the Owls have a ton of momentum heading into 2020 and can’t wait to show the college football world how improved they are.  I like their chances of making a bowl game for the first time since 2014.

Now the Owls finally get to play their opener against one of the worst teams in college football in Middle Tennessee, a team they upset last year as 14-point dogs.  Middle Tennessee is 1-5 this season with its only victory coming against a bad FIU team by a final of 31-28.  They are getting outscored by 15.7 points per game on the season.

Rice is a power-running team that will be able to run the football at will on a soft Middle Tennessee defense that is giving up 256 rushing yards per game and 5.6 per carry.  They allowed 52 points, 768 total yards and 462 rushing yards to a terrible North Texas team last week in a 35-52 loss.

Plays against again team (Middle Tennessee) - a poor team outscored by 7 or more points per game, after scoring 31 or more points in two straight games are 37-10 (78.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet Rice Saturday.

20* Iowa State/Oklahoma State Big 12 No-Brainer on Iowa State +3.5

The Iowa State Cyclones have bounced back nicely from their fluky loss to Louisiana in the opener.  They have gone 3-0 in Big 12 play and faced the gauntlet.  They took care of TCU on the road, upset Oklahoma 37-30 as a 7.5-point home dog and crushed Texas Tech 31-15 as a 9.5-point home favorite in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  They had 516 yards of total offense and one of Texas Tech’s two touchdowns came on a blocked FG return TD.

Oklahoma State couldn’t have played a much softer schedule to this point.  They were actually outgained by Tulsa in their 16-7 win in their opener.  Their 27-13 win over WVU was much closer than the final score would indicate as they were outgained by 11 yards by the Mountaineers.  And their blowout win over Kansas is nothing to be proud of because everyone is crushing Kansas this season.

Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series in recent meetings.  The road team is 4-1 SU & in the last five meetings.  Iowa State won 48-42 as 10-point dogs two years ago at Oklahoma State.  And I fully expect the Cyclones to pull the ‘upset’ here.  It won’t be an upset to me because the Cyclones are the best team in the Big 12 in my opinion.

Iowa State is 20-7-1 ATS in its last 28 games as an underdog.  Matt Campbell is 21-8 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Iowa State.  Campbell is 15-2 ATS in October games as the coach of the Cyclones.  Iowa State is 7-0 ATS after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games over the last three seasons.  The Cyclones only give up 97 rushing yards and 2.9 per carry this season, so they have what it takes to shut down Chuba Hubbard and Oklahoma State’s rushing attack.  Roll with Iowa State Saturday.

20* Tulsa/USF ESPN No-Brainer on Tulsa -10

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane have held their own against two of the best teams in the country in Oklahoma State and UCF.  They were 23.5-point dogs to Oklahoma State and only lost 7-16 while actually outgaining the Cowboys.  Then they upset UCF 34-26 as 20.5-point dogs and were only outgained by 17 yards.

Now Tulsa is ready to go after having three weeks off in between games.  That should have them focused to face a South Florida team that has been a punching bag thus far.  USF is 1-4 with its only win over FCS The Citadel in its opener.  The Bulls have since gone 0-4 in their last four games while while getting outscored by an average of 23.8 points per game.  They even lost by 20 at home to a bad East Carolina team.  It will be more of the same here against Tulsa.

The Bulls are 1-8 ATS in their last nine conference home games.  The Golden Hurricane are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.  South Florida is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win.  Bet Tulsa Friday.

20* Giants/Eagles NFC East No-Brainer on New York +4.5

Few teams have been hit harder by injuries than the Philadelphia Eagles.  They are missing nine starters on offense and five backups to injury.  Not to mention, they are missing several big names on the defensive side of the ball as well.

It’s no wonder the Eagles are off to a 1-4-1 start this season.  And they used everything they had to try and come back against the Ravens last week after they found themselves trailing 24-6 entering the 4th quarter.  They outscored the Ravens 22-6 in the final period, but came up a 2-point conversion short.

When teams lose a heartbreaker like that, I like to fade them the next week.  And this is the perfect time to do so because now the Eagles are on a short week and will certainly be fatigued and not fully recovered.  They already lack depth across the board with all these injuries and should not be this big of a favorite because of it.

The Giants are squarely in the NFC East race, just like the Eagles, because the division has been so bad.  What the Giants have going for them is probably the best defense in the division if it’s not Washington.  They have held three of their first six opponents to 19 or fewer points and have a defense that can keep them in ball games.

The last three weeks they have played much better than the first three.  They took the Rams to the wire on the road, held a late lead against the Cowboys on the road, and beat Washington at home.  They will be in this game for four quarters, so getting +4.5 is a nice value.

The Giants have been a great bet on the road over the years, especially recently.  New York is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 road games.  The Giants are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games as road underdogs.  New York is 8-1 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last three seasons.  Philadelphia is 0-4 ATS in its last four games as a home favorite.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet the Giants Thursday.

15* Arkansas State/Appalachian State ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas State +13.5

I’ve seen enough from Arkansas State to know they can hang with Appalachian State this season.  They are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS so they have exceeded expectations thus far.  And I think the oddsmakers are off on them again here as 13.5-point underdogs to the Mountaineers.

The Red Wolves only lost by 13 to Memphis on the road as 18.5-point dogs in the opener.  They upset Kansas State 35-31 as 15-point road dogs the next week, and Kansas State is unbeaten in the Big 12 now.  Memphis just upset UCF last week.  So those two performances have aged well.  They also beat Central Arkansas by 23 as 14.5-point favorites and topped a good Georgia State team 59-52 as 3.5-point favorites.

I think you can throw out their performance against Coastal Carolina.  They were dealing with Covid and Coastal Carolina played keep away the whole game.  They controlled the ball for over 41 minutes in that contest to just 18 and change for the Red Wolves.  And keep in mind Coastal Carolina is now ranked No. 25 in the country, unbeaten and coming off a win against Louisiana-Lafayette.

Appalachian State is on its third head coach in three years.  At some point, this turnover is going to hurt the program, and it will be sooner rather than later.  It appears to be showing this season as the Mountaineers are 2-1 SU but 0-3 ATS.  They only won by 15 as 17-point home favorites over a bad Charlotte team.  They failed to cover as a 35.5-point favorite against Campbell, which has gotten rolled by everyone.  And they lost 7-17 to Marshall as a 6.5-point favorite in their toughest game thus far.  This isn’t the same dominant App State team we’ve seen from the past two years, but they are being priced like they are that same team in 2020.

Plays on road underdogs (Arkansas State) - after covering the spread in four of their last five games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 32-9 (78%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Red Wolves are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as underdogs.  Take Arkansas State Thursday.

20* Cardinals/Cowboys ESPN No-Brainer on Dallas +1.5

It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Dallas Cowboys Monday night.  They are 0-5 ATS on the season having not once covered the spread.  They were favored in four of their first five games, and now they are home underdogs for the first time all season.  That’s why this is a ‘buy low’ spot and a great value on the Cowboys.

A lot is being made of the injury to Dak Prescott, but fortunately for the Cowboys they have one of the best backup quarterbacks in the NFL in Andy Dalton.  And he put up even better numbers than Dak Prescott did in his first four seasons in the NFL.  Dalton has the luxury of having arguably the most offensive talent around him of anyone in the NFL.

Dalton used that talent to guide the Cowboys on a game-winning drive to beat the Giants last week, 37-34, after replacing Prescott.  He finished 9-of-11 for 111 yards in the win and threw some great sideline routes where his receivers made some great plays for him as well.  This offense is going to keep on humming.

The Cardinals are 3-2 this season, but their three wins have come against the Jets, 49ers and Washington who are a combined 3-12 on the season.  They also lost to the Lions and Panthers.  This is easily the toughest test of the season for the Cardinals, and I think they are getting too much respect from oddsmakers off their blowout win over the hapless Jets last week.

The Cardinals are 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.  Arizona is 1-7 ATS in its last eight Monday night games.  Dallas is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as a home underdog.  The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five Monday night games.  The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with Arizona.  Bet the Cowboys Monday.

15* Packers/Bucs Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Tampa Bay +1

Not all bye weeks are created equal.  Some come at better times than others.  And I actually think this is a bad time for the Packers to have a bye.  They had a ton of momentum with their 4-0 start, but now that momentum comes to a halt here.

Now the Packers go into their bye week feeling fat and happy instead of hungry.  And it’s not the normal advantage for the Packers because their opponent played last Thursday, so it’s a mini-bye week for the Tampa Bay Bucs.  And we have a hungry Bucs team coming off a bad last-second loss to the Bears in which they blew a 13-0 lead.

Getting Tom Brady off a loss as a home underdog is a great proposition.  I don’t think we’ve ever had a chance to back him as a home dog off a loss, at least not that I can remember.  And Brady now should have nearly his full compliment of weapons.  Chris Godwin will return from a couple game absence, and Mike Evans and Scotty Miller are both expected to play as well.  The Bucs are about as healthy as they’ve been all season.

It’s just a great time to ’sell high’ on the Packers, who have feasted on an easy schedule thus far.  Their 4-0 record has come against teams that are a combined 5-14 on the season.  This will be their stiffest test yet, and I expect the Bucs to hand them their first defeat.

The Bucs get a lot of praise for their explosive offense, but it is their underrated defense that makes them so good.  The Bucs are among the best teams in the NFL in giving up just 298.2 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play.  They are holding opponents to 62 yards per game below their season averages.  The Packers give up 6.4 yards per play, which is one of the worst marks in the NFL.

Plays on underdogs or PK (Tampa Bay) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 51% & 60% of their games on the season are 40-14 (74.1%) ATS since 1983.  Tampa Bay is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games off an upset loss as a road favorite.  Bruce Arians is 9-1 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less in all games he has coached.  Roll with the Bucs Sunday.

15* NFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Carolina Panthers -1

What more do the Carolina Panthers have to do to get some respect from oddsmakers?  Teddy Bridgewater has clearly been one of the most underrated starters in the NFL.  He has guided the Panthers to a 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS run in his last three starts.  And keep in mind the Panthers were competitive with both the Raiders and Bucs in losses to open the season.

It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Chicago Bears, who could easily be 0-5 instead of 4-1.  They are the most fraudulent team in the NFL in my opinion.  They had a 17-point 4th quarter comeback against the Lions and a 16-point 4th quarter comeback against the Falcons.  They had to get a stop to beat the Giants by 4.  And they got a last-second field goal to beat the Bucs.  In their lone loss, they were dominated by the Indianapolis Colts at home.

The numbers tell the story of which team is a fraud and which is not.  The Panthers are outgaining opponents by 44 yards per game on the season behind an offense that is putting up nearly 400 yards per game.  The Bears are getting outgained by 20.8 yards per game with a pitiful offense that averages just 323.2 yards per game.

Chicago is 0-6 ATS in road games after the first month of the season over the last two seasons.  Carolina is 6-0 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last three seasons. The Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  Chicago is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win.  Take the Panthers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Lions -3

The Detroit Lions are coming off their bye and have a chance to regroup and rebound here against a hapless Jacksonville Jaguars team.  I love the spot for the Lions, who are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games coming off a bye week.

There’s no question the Lions are better than they have shown.  They should be 2-2 right now but blew a 17-point lead in the 4th quarter to the Bears.  Their other two losses came to the Packers and Saints, which are forgivable.  They also beat a good Cardinals team on the road.

So this is easily a big step down in class for Detroit, which has played one of the toughest schedules in the NFL to this point.  They face a Jaguars team that should be 0-5.  They were outgained by over 200 yards by the Colts in their lone win, a fluky won.  And they’ve gone on to go 0-4 in their last four games overall while getting outscored by 45 points, or by an average of 11.3 points per game.  They lost by 18 to the Dolphins, by 8 to the Bengals and by 16 to the Texans, and you could make the argument that the Lions are better than all three of those teams.

Matthew Stafford should have the offense hitting on all cylinders against a soft as butter Jaguars defense that is giving up 29.4 points and 416.8 yards per game.  They’ve traded away or lost in free agency almost all of their talent on the defensive side of the ball.  Gardner Minshew is a solid quarterback, but he’s in over his head with the lack of talent surrounding him on offense as well.

Plays on any team (Detroit) - a good offensive team averaging 5.4 to 5.8 yards per play against a team with a terrible defense that is allowing 5.8 or more yards per play, after being outgained by 100 yards or more in their last game are 28-6 (82.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Lions Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Cincinnati Bengals +8

The Cincinnati Bengals played four straight one-score games to start the season.  They finally got their first taste of victory in Week 4 against the Jaguars after some tough losses the first three weeks.  And I think they exhaled and relaxed last week in their blowout loss to the Ravens.

Cincinnati’s defense played well enough to win that game, holding the Ravens to just 332 total yards and 5.4 yards per play.  But their offense couldn’t get anything going and committed three turnovers.  Their offense should get back to playing how it was before that game.

The Bengals had averaged nearly 29 points per game in their three games prior to the Ravens.  AJ Green sat out last week, but he is expected back this week so Burrow will have his favorite target back.  And there’s a good chance the Bengals get John Ross back from a four-game absence at receiver too.  He has been upgraded to questionable this week.

The Bengals should be able to hang with a suspect Indianapolis offense that just isn’t very good led by Philip Rivers.  He is a shell of his former self, and he doesn’t have nearly the weapons in Indy that he did with the Chargers.  Rivers has a 4-to-5 TD/INT ratio on the season through five games.  

And keep in mind the Colts have played one of the easiest schedules in the NFL thus far.  Their defense was exposed for 32 points by the Browns last week.  They were missing their best player on defense in LB Darius Leonard, and he is doubtful to suit up again this week. The Colts have key injuries on both sides of the ball outside Leonard as well.

This line should be less than a touchdown in my opinion, so getting eight points with the Bengals is a nice value considering they have played in four one-score games in five weeks with the lone exception being the dominant Ravens.  You want Rivers as an underdog, you don’t want him when he’s laying points, especially not when he is laying more than a touchdown like he is in this game.

The Bengals are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as road underdogs.  Bet the Bengals Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5

The Cleveland Browns are getting too much respect from oddsmakers now after going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall against a soft schedule.  They have faced the Bengals, Redskins and Colts at home as well as the Cowboys on the road.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Browns.

Their big step up in class game came back in Week 1 when they lost 6-38 at Baltimore.  And now this is another step up in class here against a Pittsburgh Steelers team that is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS this season.  But oddsmakers aren’t giving the Steelers the respect they deserve.

Pittsburgh’s offense is back to being as dominant as it was in years’ past.  With a healthy Ben Roethlisberger back under center, the Steelers have scored at least 26 points in every game.  They have one of the best defenses in the NFL to boot, giving up just 302 yards per game.  They are the more complete team and should be more than 3.5-point favorites in this matchup.

The Browns have a soft as butter defense that gives up 29.8 points and 382.6 yards per game this season.  The Browns have been able to run the ball offensively, but Baker Mayfield is going to have to do more than he has been asked to do to this point.  That’s because the Steelers only allow 64 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry.  This is where the bad Baker comes out.

Pittsburgh is 16-0 SU in its last 16 home meetings with Cleveland.  The Steelers are 23-2 SU in their last 25 meetings with the Browns with Big Ben under center.  The Browns are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games.  Cleveland is 7-23-2 ATS in its last 32 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Boston College +12.5

Virginia Tech’s injury report is a mess.  They were missing double-digit players due to Covid-19 last week against North Carolina.  They trailed 42-17 early in the 3rd quarter before the Tar Heels let their foot off the gas and resulted in a 56-45 UNC victory.

That high-scoring game had to take a lot out of Virginia Tech.  Their soft as butter defense was gashed for 656 total yards by UNC.  They will still be feeling the after-affects of that game heading into this showdown with Boston College even if they get a few players back from Covid-19 absences.  Either way, they should not be double-digit favorites over Boston College.

The Eagles are off to a 3-1 start this season that includes an impressive upset win at Duke 26-6 and an upset win over Pittsburgh at home.  Their only loss came to one of the best teams in the country in North Carolina by a final of 22-26.  They were only outgained by 48 yards by the Tar Heels.

That gives these teams two common opponents, and going off that Boston College has fared better against Duke and UNC than Virginia Tech has.  They outscored UNC and Duke by a combined 16 points, while Virginia Tech was outscored by a a combined 4 points against those two teams.  They only beat Duke 38-31.  If anything, Boston College has been the better team to this point and should not be a double-digit dog.

The Eagles are 20-5-1 ATS int emir last 26 conference games.  Virginia Tech is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games as a favorite.  Boston College is 53-33 ATS in its last 86 games as a road underdog, including 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games as a road dog.  The Eagles are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings, including outright wins each of the last two seasons.  Bet Boston College Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Mississippi State +5.5

It’s definitely a good time to ‘buy low’ on Mississippi State this week.  I had Kentucky against them last week and didn’t really have to sweat it because Mississippi State just kept making mistake after mistake with six turnovers in their 24-2 loss to the Wildcats.  That came a week after committing four turnovers in an upset loss to Arkansas after upsetting LSU to open the season.

That makes 14 turnovers for Mississippi State through three games, which is the most int he country.  Mike Leach will be preaching ball security this week, and they won’t be committing four-plus turnovers again to give the game away.

This is a tough spot for Texas A&M after playing two of the best teams in the country in Alabama and Florida the last two weeks.  I don’t believe they’ll have much left in the tank for Mississippi State this week, and they certainly won’t be as excited to play the Bulldogs as they were Alabama and Florida.

The Bulldogs have too good of stats to be a 1-2 team to this point, which is why it’s a ‘buy low’ opportunity.  They are outgaining their opponents by 157 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play thus far.  Their defense has been dynamite in holding three SEC opponents to just 286 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play.

Texas A&M is 2-1 despite getting outgained by 0.1 yards per play thus far.  They are giving up 6.7 yards per play defensively, which is 2.5 yards per play more than Mississippi State is allowing.  And QB KJ Costello should have a big game against a Texas A&M defense that is giving up 71.6% completions, 299 passing yards per game and 10.2 yards per attempt.  The Bulldogs average 404 passing yards per game in Leach’s Air Raid attack.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Mississippi State) - with a turnover margin of -2 per game or worse on the season, after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 33-10 (76.7%) ATS since 1992.  This trend just goes to show that it’s a good move to back teams with poor turnover differentials over multiple games in a row.  Bet Mississippi State Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Duke +4.5

The Duke Blue Devils are one of the best one-win teams in the country.  They are much better than their 1-4 record would indicate.  The problem for them has been turnovers as they have committed a whopping 19 turnovers already and have a -11 differential on the season.  These are the teams that I like to back because there’s some positive regression coming for the Blue Devils.

David Cutcliffe usually coaches a very smart Duke team year after year that exceeds expectations because of playing the game the right way.  But that hasn’t happened thus far, though they’ve shown signs of getting things turned around.  They covered their last two games, only losing 31-38 to Virginia Tech as 11.5-point dogs.

Then last week they dominated Syracuse worse than the 38-24 score would even indicate. They lost the turnover battle 4-0 in that game yet still won by 14.  They outgained Syracuse 645 to 286 in that game, or by 359 total yards.  It was worse than anyone had beaten Syracuse yet this season.

While Duke will play hard knowing it has a bye next week to rest, NC State is in a sandwich spot here.  The Wolf Pack are coming off three straight road games against Virginia Tech, Pitt and Virginia pulling upsets against the latter two.  And now they have a road trip to North Carolina next week on deck.  They will be looking ahead to that in-state rivalry and not giving the 1-4 Blue Devils the proper focus they deserve.  This has upset spot written all over it.

Unlike Duke, NC State has taken care of the football with only four turnovers in four games.  They are due for some negative turnover regression, especially after forcing four turnovers against Virginia last week that aided their upset victory.  And while NC State has a decent offense, their defense is soft as butter.  They give up 447 yards per game on the season and are getting outgained by 45 yards per game despite being 3-1.  Duke is outgaining opponents by 20.4 yards per game despite being 1-4.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Wolfpack and ‘buy low’ on the Blue Devils.

Duke is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 425 or more yards per game.  Dave Doeren is 0-6 ATS after a game where they forced four or more turnovers as the coach of the Wolfpack, having never covered in this situation in his eight seasons here and losing outright by an average of 16.9 points per game.  NC State is 13-29 ATS in its last 42 games off a conference road win.  

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NC State) - after scoring 20 points or more in the first half of two straight games against an opponent that scored 24 points or more in the first half last game are 38-11 (77.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NC State) - off two consecutive road wins, in the first half of the season are 41-15 (73.2%) ATS since 1992.  Take Duke Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Pittsburgh +13.5

The Pitt Panthers are two points away from being 5-0 this season.  Their consecutive losses to NC State (29-30) and Boston College (30-31) have them undervalued right now.  And now they are catching nearly two touchdowns against the Miami Hurricanes this week.  It’s time to ‘buy low’ on Pittsburgh.

It’s also time to ’sell high’ on Miami after their 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS start.  The Hurricanes were exposed by Clemson last week in their 17-42 loss that wasn’t even that close.  Miami was held to just 210 total yards while committing three turnovers.  They gave up 550 total yards to Clemson and were outgained by 340 yards.  

It’s going to be hard for Miami to get up for Pittsburgh a week after playing one of the best teams in the country in Clemson, so this definitely has ‘hangover’ written all over it.  I like the quotes coming out of the Pittsburgh locker room about how they’ll bounce back this week.  I think they will be the more motivated team for sure.  

It’s a loaded Pitt team still capable of winning the Coastal with 15 returning starters and an elite defense and passing attack.  The Panthers only give up 264 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play through five games this season.  They are averaging 284 passing yards per game and 7.5 per attempt on offense.

Plays against home teams (Miami) - an excellent offensive team that is scoring 35 or more points per game after a loss by 21 points or more are 67-31 (68.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Miami’s early wins against UAB, Louisville and FSU don’t look so good now.  The Panthers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss.  Roll with Pittsburgh Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on South Carolina +3.5

The South Carolina Gamecocks are 1-2 this season and it’s time to ‘buy low’ on them here.  Their two losses came against two of the best teams in the SEC in Tennessee and Florida, and they actually played well in both losses.  They only lost 27-31 to Tennessee and were only outgained by 15 yards.  And they lost 24-38 to Florida in a game that was closer than the final score as they were only outgained by 19 yards.

The Gamecocks took out their frustration on Vanderbilt last week in a 41-7 road win and dominated every bit as much as the final score showed.  They outgained the Commodores by 236 yards in the win.  And keep in mind that’s a Vanderbilt team that only lost 12-17 to Texas A&M in their opener.

Now South Carolina will ‘upset’ an Auburn team that could easily be 0-3 right now.  Auburn needed a last-second field goal to beat Arkansas 30-28 last week as a 13.5-point favorite.  They lost 6-27 to Georgia the week before and were outgained by 226 yards.  And they did not deserve to beat Kentucky in their opener in a misleading 29-13 final that saw them get outgained by 60 yards by the Wildcats.  There was a 14-point swing in that game after the refs missed a TD by Kentucky on review that changed the whole game.

Auburn is 0-6 ATS off a home conference win over the last three seasons.  South Carolina is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games off a blowout conference win by 21 points or more.    Auburn is a complete fraud as the 15th-ranked team in the country currently and will get exposed by the Gamecocks this weekend.  Take South Carolina Saturday.

20* BYU/Houston Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston +5.5

I was very impressed with Houston in their season opener against Tulane last week.  They were sloppy early, which I expected, but the way they came back and won with ease from a 24-7 deficit shows they are the real deal this season.  They outscored the Green Wave 42-7 the rest the way after they finally quit turning the ball over.

The Cougars lost the turnover battle 5-0 yet still won by 18 points.  They outgained the Green Wave by 265 total yards and held them to just 211 total yards.  This is one of the most experienced teams in the country as Houston brought back 19 starters in Year 2 under Dana Holgorsen.  It’s clear to me after just one game that this is going to be a contender in the AAC.

BYU is getting a lot of credit for beating up on a soft schedule thus far, going 4-0 against the likes of Navy, Troy, LA Tech and UTSA.  This is by far BYU’s stiffest test yet.  And the Cougars struggled with UTSA as a 34-point favorite last week.  They only beat UTSA 27-20 in that game.

Now BYU is working on a short week with five days to prepare for Houston.  Meanwhile, the Cougars have seven days to prepare for BYU after playing last Thursday, which is a nice advantage.  And BYU has cluster injuries along the offensive line.  Three starters in G Tristen Hoge, C James Empey and G Kieffer Longson are all questionable.  And backup guard Keanu Salaepaga is doubtful.  Offensive line injuries always get overlooked in the point spread in college football, and that is the case in this game.

Kalani Sitake is 0-6 ATS after gaining 475 or more total yards per game in the last three games as the coach of BYU.  This is a system that has never lost in the five years that Sitake has been at the helm.  After beating up on a soft schedule thus far, BYU meets its match this week.  Bet Houston Friday.

20* Georgia State/Arkansas State ESPN No-Brainer on Georgia State +3.5

Georgia State is a team on the rise in the Sun Belt.  The Panthers went 7-6 last year and made their third bowl game in five seasons.  Shawn Elliott is doing a heck of a job with the program as he enters his fourth season with his best team yet.  I say that because Georgia State returns its most starters (16) of his tenure and he has all of his players in place now.

The offense welcomes back eight starters.  They have four starters back on the offensive line and each of their top three receivers return.  They do have to replace their QB and RB, but I like junior RB Destin Coates, who averaged 6.7 yards per carry last year with 546 yards and seven touchdowns and was their most explosive back.  The defense has eight starters and 10 of the top 12 tacklers back, so this should be Elliott’s best stop unit yet.  

I really like what I’ve seen from Georgia State thus far.  They are 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS through two games.  They took Louisiana to overtime, a team that was expected to challenge for the top Group of 5 spot and one that upset Iowa State in Week 1.  They lost 31-34 as 17-point dogs.  Then they bounced back with an impressive 49-29 win over East Carolina as 1.5-point dogs.

Freshman QB Cornelius Brown is a problem with his dual-threat ability.  He has thrown for 434 yards and four touchdowns while also rushing for 90 yards and a score.  Coates has proven he can be the featured back this year with 263 yards and three scores on 57 carries.  There is a lot to like about this offense.

Arkansas State played well against Memphis and Kansas State to open the season before Covid-19 hit the team.  Then they lost 23-52 at Coastal Carolina as 3.5-point favorites before coming back last week to beat FCS Central Arkansas 50-27.

Georgia State has a huge scheduling advantage in this spot.  The Panthers have had two weeks to prepare for Arkansas State.  The Red Wolves just played on Saturday, so they have just four days to get ready for Georgia State.  And keep in mind Georgia State upset Arkansas State 52-38 last year as 6.5-point home dogs, gaining 722 total yards and 39 first downs on the Red Wolves in a dominant win.  I really think the wrong team is favored here.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Georgia State) - off a home win, with 16 starters returning are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Georgia State Thursday.

20* Coastal Carolina/Louisiana ESPN No-Brainer on Louisiana -7.5

The Louisiana-Lafeyette Rajin’ Cajuns are probably the best Group of 5 team in the country.  They returned 14 starters from a team that went 11-3 last season with seven on offense and seven on defense.  And they have opened 3-0 this season.

Their 31-14 upset win over Iowa State in the opener looks better and better by the week now that Iowa State is 3-0 in the Big 12.  They predictably had a bit of a letdown against a quality Georgia State team the next week, but still won in overtime 34-31.  And then they were missing a ton of players due to Covid-19 in their 20-18 win over Georgia Southern.

I think those narrow wins as 17-point favorites over Georgia State and 12-point favorites over Georgia Southern have the Rajin’ Cajuns actually undervalued right now.  They will get a lot of players back from Covid-19, including star RB Elijah Mitchell, and they have not played since September 26th.  They will be rested and ready to make a statement on this standalone National TV game on a Wednesday night.

Conversely, I think Coastal Carolina is being way overvalued after a 3-0 start against a very easy schedule.  They beat lowly Kansas in the opener thanks to winning the turnover battle 3-0.  They beat FCS Campbell, and they took advantage of an Arkansas State team that had Covid-19 problems of their own leading into that game.

While I’ll admit Coastal Carolina is improved this year, I don’t think they are improved enough to stay within 7.5 points of Louisiana.  They lost 48-7 to Louisiana as 14-point home underdogs last year and were outgained by 328 total yards in that loss.  Now they are only 7.5-point road dogs in the rematch this year.  There’s clearly value with the Rajin’ Cajuns in this game.

Coastal Carolina is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Louisiana-Lafayette Wednesday.

20* Bills/Titans AFC No-Brainer on Buffalo -3.5

What a mess the last couple weeks have been for the Tennessee Titans.  They have now received a total of 24 positive Covid-19 tests dating back to September 24th.  But they finally went two days in a row without a positive and now will be able to play this game Tuesday night.

All these positive tests have certainly made practice and prep for this game against Buffalo less than ideal to say the least.  And I have to think they will be the less prepared team in this game, which is bad news going up against one of the best teams in the NFL in the Bills.

The Titans are very fortunate to be 3-0 against a very soft schedule, too.  They have three wins against the Broncos, Jaguars and Vikings by a combined 6 points.  Those three teams have a combined record of 3-11 this season.

Most concerning is a Tennessee defense that is allowing 24.7 points and 422.3 yards per game against those three teams, which don’t have great offenses, especially the Broncos and Jaguars.  And now they have to face one of the league’s best offenses in the Bills, who average 30.8 points and 409.8 yards per game on the season.

Buffalo’s defensive numbers haven’t been up to par for the level of talent they have, but they’ve still managed to go 4-0.  And a lot of that is due to injuries.  But the Bills are starting to get healthier on that side of the ball, and having a few extra days here to get ready could get some guys back in the lineup that are listed as questionable.

Tennessee is 0-7 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last three seasons.  Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Tennessee) - after allowing 30 points or more in two straight games against an opponent that scored 17 points or more in two straight are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Bills Tuesday.

20* Chargers/Saints ESPN No-Brainer on Los Angeles +8

The Los Angeles Chargers are much better than their 1-3 record would indicate.  After going on the road and beating the Bengals 16-13, the Chargers have lost three straight.  But they’ve lost to three very hot teams in the Chiefs, Panthers and Bucs all by 7 points or less.

They lost 20-23 (OT) to Kansas City and outgained the Chiefs by 65 yards.  That game alone against the defending Super Bowl champs shows what they are capable of.  They lost 16-21 to Carolina despite outgaining the Panthers by 134 yards.  And last week they blew a 24-7 lead and lost to the Bucs, 31-38.

The Chargers should not be catching more than a touchdown against the Saints.  I would argue the Chargers actually have the better quarterback in Justin Herbert, who has impressed as a rookie in his three starts.  Herbert is completing 72% of his passes for 931 yards and averaging 8.0 yards per attempt.

Drew Brees has really started to show his age this season.  Of course, injuries on offense have not helped matters as the Saints are just 2-2 this season.  WR Michael Thomas has been out with an ankle injury since Week 1 and is questionable to return this week.  Both starting tackles in Ryan Ramczyk and Andrus Peat are questionable this week, as is TE Jared Cook.

The Saints have also shown a lot of holes defensively this season and a lot of that has to do with injuries as well.  Three of their best players in CB Marshon Lattimore, CB Janoris Jenkins and DE Marcus Davenport are all questionable this week.  The Saints are giving up 30.8 points per game on the season, so it’s tough to trust them to lay 8 points with that kind of defense.

The Chargers are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 road games off three or more consecutive losses.  Los Angeles is 33-15-4 ATS in its last 52 games as a road underdog.  The Chargers are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog overall.  The Saints are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as home favorites.  Bet the Chargers Monday.

20* Vikings/Seahawks NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +7

The Minnesota Vikings are 1-3 this season but their three losses have come to teams that are a combined 10-1 this season.  They did not look good the first couple weeks against the Packers and Colts, but they’ve turned it around since.

After a tough 30-31 loss to the unbeaten Titans, the Vikings went on the road last week and crushed Houston 31-23.  Their offense has really gotten going the last couple weeks as they had 464 total yards against the Titans and 410 more against the Texans.  Justin Jefferson has back-to-back 100-yard games and is clearly a great replacement for Diggs.  And Dalvin Cook is simply a playmaker out of the backfield.

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on the Seahawks, who are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS this season.  They could easily be 1-3.  They got a goal-line stand against the Patriots to preserve a 35-30 win, picked off Dak Prescott in the end zone to preserve a 38-31 win, and held the Dolphins to five field goals which was the difference in a 31-23 win.

Now the Seahawks are in their biggest favorite role of the season, laying 7 points to the Vikings this week.  The Vikings can match the Seahawks score for score because Seattle has one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  Indeed, the Seahawks rank 32nd in the NFL in giving up 476.8 yards per game.  It will catch up with them eventually, and I believe it does this week.  Injuries continue to pile up on the defensive side of the football for Seattle.  The Seahawks are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games.  Take the Vikings Sunday.

25* NFL DOG OF THE YEAR on Miami Dolphins +8.5

The Miami Dolphins are 1-3 and desperate for a win.  Their three losses this season have comes against three teams that are a combined 10-2 this season in the Patriots, Bills and Seahawks.  Both both losses are by the Patriots, who lost to the Chiefs and Seahawks and gave both a run for their money.

The Dolphins had their chances to beat the Patriots but a INT inside the 5-yard line late prevented the comeback.  The Dolphins hung right with the Bills and only lost 28-31.  And they lost to the Seahawks by 8 last week, but that game was much closer than the 23-31 final would indicate.

The Dolphins had to settle for five field goals on their first five scoring drives, so they couldn’t capitalize in the red zone.  They also had a busted coverage right before halftime that turned a 1-point game into an 8-point game going into intermission.  The Seahawks got the ball back with 24 seconds left after yet another Miami field goal, and somehow managed to score a touchdown with three seconds left.  The Dolphins were only outgained by 26 yards by Seattle.

And while the Dolphins have one of the best injury situations in the NFL, the 49ers have one of the worst.  They had two more starters go down with injury last week in CB K’Waun Williams and DE Ezekiel Ansah, and both are out this week.  Ansah was signed to replace Nick Bosa and Dee Ford, who are both on injured reserve, as are DT Solomon Thomas, CB Richard Sherman and C Weston Richburn.  QB Jimmy G could return this week, but he’s really not much of an upgrade over Nick Mullens.  And they have another handful of players questionable.

The 49ers are 2-2 this season with their only wins coming against arguably the two worst teams in the NFL in the Jets and Giants.  They lost outright as home favorites of -6.5 or more to both the Cardinals and Eagles, and those losses look worse by the day, too.  And this is a role they have struggled in for years.

In fact, the 49ers are 0-9 ATS in their last nine regular season games as a home favorite of 6.5 points or more dating back to 2014.  More concerning yet is that the 49ers are 3-6 SU in this role.  So don’t even consider using the 49ers in teasers or survivor pools this week.  I have a large bet on the Dolphins +8.5 this week and some at +300 on the money line as well.  Bet the Dolphins Sunday.

15* AFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Cincinnati Bengals +13

The Cincinnati Bengals have been extremely competitive this season and it’s all because of Joe Burrow.  All four of their games have been decided by 8 points or fewer and I believe there’s a good chance this one is as well.

After losing to the Chargers by 3 and Browns by 5, the Bengals tied the Eagles 23-23 in Week 3.  Then they had their coming out party last week in a 33-25 win over Jacksonville.  They racked up 505 total yards in the win behind huge games from Burrow and Joe Mixon. With Burrow and an underrated arsenal of weapons at RB and receiver, the Bengals won’t be out of any game this season.

That’s why I like backing them catching 13 points against the Baltimore Ravens this week.  The Ravens let Washington hang around last week and won 31-17 as a 14-point favorite.  Cincinnati is a lot better than Washington, so catching 13 points with the Bengals is a really nice value.  And keep in mind the Ravens only outgained Washington by 7 yards in that game.  In fact, the Ravens are actually getting outgained by 27.2 yards per game on the season.  They aren’t as dominant as everyone makes them out to be.

Plays against home favorites of 10.5 or more points (Baltimore) - after having won two of their last three games, in October games are 40-13 (75.5%) ATS since 1983.  Cincinnati is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games as a road underdog.  Baltimore is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games as a home favorite.  The Ravens simply should not be favored by double-digits here.  Roll with the Bengals Sunday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Kentucky -1.5

The Kentucky Wildcats are 0-2 this season and desperate for their first win.  They could easily be 2-0.  They had a 14-point swing in the Auburn loss where the refs took away a TD from them and it resulted in a TD the other way.  And last week they missed and extra point in OT to lose to Ole Miss.

This is still a very strong Kentucky team that returned 15 starters this season.  They really want to right the ship this week.  They lead the country in 3rd-down conversion percentage, so they are putting their offense in great situations.  And have outgained Auburn and Ole Miss by 80 yards per game despite losing those two.

Mississippi State’s 44-34 win over LSU in the opener was clearly fools’ gold.  They took advantage of an LSU team that lost 15 players to the NFL.  And last week they came back and promptly laid an egg in a 14-21 home loss to Arkansas as 16.5-point favorites.  That’s an Arkansas team that had lost 20 straight SEC games prior and is terrible to say the least.

Kentucky is 7-0 ATS after scoring 37 points or more last game over the last three seasons. Mississippi State is 0-6 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive under over the last three seasons.  The Bulldogs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as road underdogs.  The Wildcats are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas State +9

The Kansas State Wildcats have responded nicely from their shocking loss to Arkansas State in the opener.  They went on the road and beat Oklahoma outright as 28-point underdogs, and avoided the letdown last week by beating Texas Tech 31-21.

I realize that game against Texas Tech was closer than the final score, but it was a flat spot for the Wildcats and they still came away victorious.  And now we have Kansas State in the role I like to back them in, which is the underdog role here against TCU.

I think the Horned Frogs are getting too much respect from oddsmakers now after upsetting Texas 33-31 as 10.5-point road underdogs last week.  And now they have to try and come back and win by double-digits to cover this 9-point spread against a feisty Kansas State team that makes you work for everything you get.

The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and three of those were decided by a touchdown or less, including the last two.  There’s a very good chance this game is a one-score game in the 4th quarter, which is why there’s a ton of value catching the Wildcats as 9-point dogs in this matchup.

Chris Klieman is 6-0 ATS after a game where his team committed zero turnovers as the coach of Kansas State.  Gary Patterson is 2-12 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog as the coach of TCU.  Patterson is 2-10 ATS in home games off an upset win as an underdog as the coach of TCU.  

The Wildcats are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 280 passing yards in their previous game.  Kansas State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as a road underdog.  The Wildcats are 41-20-1 ATS in their last 62 games as underdogs overall.  TCU is 6-21 ATS in its last 27 games as a home favorite.  Roll with Kansas State Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas Tech +12.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are in a huge letdown spot.  They just pulled off their first home win over Oklahoma in 60 years, which is astonishing.  And now they have to try and get up to face a Texas Tech team that is 0-2 in the Big 12.  I see the Cyclones coming out flat and for the Red Raiders to give them more than they bargained for.

Conversely, we have a Texas Tech team that is highly motivated for that first Big 12 win.  They blew a 15-point lead in the final three minutes against Texas and lost in overtime in their Big 12 opener.  And last week they probably deserved to beat Kansas State in a 21-31 loss.  They outgained the Wildcats 471 to 404, or by 67 total yards.

Texas Tech starting QB Alan Bowman did get injured early in that loss to Kansas State, but I was impressed by Utah State transfer Henry Columbi, who nearly led them back from a 14-0 halftime deficit.  He replaced Bowman and went 30-of-42 for 244 yards and two touchdowns with one interception.  He also showed a dual-threat ability with 40 yards on eight carries.  So I’m not worried at all if Columbi starts over Bowman, who is currently questionable with an ankle injury.

The Red Raiders are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games as underdogs.  The Cyclones are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games as favorites, including their outright loss to Louisiana in the opener as 13-point favorites.  Iowa State is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games.  The Cyclones just have a way of playing to their competition, and this couldn’t be a worse spot for them off their upset win over Oklahoma.  Take Texas Tech Saturday.

15* Louisville/Georgia Tech ACC Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 64.5

Two teams desperate for a win who are both coming off two straight losses square off Friday night when the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets host the Louisville Cardinals.  It’s also two teams coming off two sloppy performances, so taking care of the football will be a priority.

Georgia Tech has committed five turnovers in its last two games, which has made its defensive numbers look worse than they really are.  For example, the Yellow Jackets only allowed 357 total yards to Syracuse last time out, but gave up 37 points.  Look for taking care of the football to be a priority.

Louisville has committed six turnovers in its last two games against Miami and Pittsburgh.  The defense still held strong and limited the Panthers to just 23 points and 376 total yards last time out.  And this Georgia Tech offense isn’t very good, scoring just 19.0 points per game on the season, so the Louisville defense should have some success again.

Georgia Tech is 9-1 to the UNDER in its last 10 home games after a game where they committed four or more turnovers.  The Yellow Jackets are 10-2 UNDER in their last 12 games as a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points.  The UNDER is 16-5 in Yellow Jackets last 21 games following a bye week.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Bucs/Bears FOX No-Brainer on Tampa Bay -3.5

The Tampa Bay Bucs have really improved rapidly since a season-opening loss to the Saints on the road.  And even that game wasn’t as bad as the score as they lost the turnover battle 3-0 and held the Saints to 271 total yards.

The Bucs have reeled off three straight wins by a combined 39 points since.  And now they head to Chicago to face a Bears team that really could be 0-4 right now, but they’re 3-1 and overvalued as a result.

The Bears came back from 17 points down in the 4th quarter to beat the Lions in their opener.  They had to come up with a defensive stand on the final drive to beat the Giants 17-13.  They came back from 16 points down in the 4th quarter to beat the Falcons.  And last week they lost 11-19 to the Colts in a game that wasn’t even as close as the score would indicate.  

The Colts held the Bears to just 3 points through the first 58 minutes of that game.  But the Bears got a garbage TD late and a 2-point conversion to turn a 19-3 game into a 19-11 one.  It’s clear that Nick Foles is not the savior and probably not even much of an upgrade over Mitch Trubisky, who at least has a dual-threat ability.

Tampa Bay is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games after scoring 35 points or more last game.  This Bucs offense is humming, averaging 32.3 points per game in their last three.  Tom Brady threw for 369 yards and five touchdowns against a very good Chargers defense last week. The Bears are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  Chicago is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following a loss.  The Bears are 0-6 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Bucs Thursday.

15* Tulane/Houston AAC ANNIHILATOR on Tulane +7

The Tulane Green Wave already have three games under their belts while the Houston Cougars have yet to play a game due to Covid-19.  That’s a huge advantage for the Green Wave, and they should not be catching a full touchdown against the Cougars tonight because of it.

The Green Wave are very close to being 3-0 if not for a blown 24-0 halftime lead over Navy.  But they responded very well with a 66-24 win over Southern Miss as only 3.5-point favorites last time out.  They replaced the inept Keon Howard at QB in that game and went with Michael Pratt, who threw two touchdown passes while also rushing for 40 yards and a score on seven carries.  They are going with Pratt moving forward and I love the move.

Houston is getting a lot of hype due to having 19 returning starters.  But the Cougars went just 4-8 last season with their only wins over Prairie View A&M, UConn, North Texas and Tulsa, and I still question the talent on this team under Dana Holgorsen.  It’s one of those deals where they are going to need to prove it to me first, and I don’t think they are in a very good position to prove it playing in their first game of the season here.

Willie Fritz is 18-5 ATS off a non-conference games as a head coach.  Fritz is 26-12 ATS in the first half of the season as a head coach.  The Green Wave are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games on Turf.  The Cougars are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Tulane Thursday.

20* Falcons/Packers ESPN No-Brainer on Atlanta +7.5

It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the Green Bay Packers.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season against the Vikings, Lions and Saints, who are a combined 2-7 this season.  They are coming off their big upset win over the overrated Saints on Sunday Night Football last week.

It’s also a great time to ‘buy low’ on the 0-3 Atlanta Falcons, who have lost to three teams that are a combined 7-2 on the season.  And keep in mind the Falcons were in all three of those games.  They had 506 total yards against the Seahawks, then blew a 15-point 4th quarter lead against the Cowboys and a 16-point 4th quarter lead against the Bears.

It’s clear the Falcons can play with anyone if they don’t beat themselves.  They have one of the best offenses in the NFL in scoring 30 points per game and averaging 419 yards per game.  And there’s a good chance they get Julio Jones back from injury this week.

Speaking of injuries, Aaron Rodgers could be without his top two receivers this week, and there’s really not much talent at all behind Devante Adams and Allen Lazard.  Adams missed last week with a hamstring injury and is questionable, while Lazard had surgery on a core muscle and is out multiple weeks.  That’s a big blow as Lazard and Adams have combined for 30 receptions for 446 yards and four touchdowns through three games.

The Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games and 5-0 ATS in their last five games as road underdogs.  Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog.  The road team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  The Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Lambeau Field.  Bet the Falcons Monday.

15* Eagles/49ers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Philadelphia +7.5

This is a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Philadelphia Eagles.  They have opened 0-2-1 this season despite being favored in all three games.  Now they have moved to whopping +7.5-point underdogs to the San Francisco 49ers this week.

It’s also a great time to ’sell high’ on the 49ers, who are coming off two straight blowout victories over arguably the two worst teams in the NFL in the Jets and Giants.  The 49ers have the worst injury situation in the entire NFL and have been able to overcome it against those two teams.  But they won’t be able to against the Eagles, at least not enough to put them away by 8-plus points, which is what it’s going to take to cover this spread.

The 49ers are without five of their best defensive players in Nick Bosa, Solomon Thomas, Dee Ford, Dre Greenlaw and Richard Sherman.  They are without C Richburg, RB Coleman, RB Mostert and they could be without QB Garoppolo and WR Samuel.  The Eagles also have some injuries, but they are nowhere near as bad as the situation for the 49ers.

The Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as road underdogs.  Philadelphia is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in San Francisco. The 49ers are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games as a home favorite.  They lost outright as 7-point home favorites over the Cardinals in Week 1.  Roll with the Eagles Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami Dolphins +7

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on the Seattle Seahawks.  They have opened the season 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS despite having a terrible defense that gives up 28.7 points and 497 yards per game.  They just cannot be trusted in this price range with this awful of a defense.

The Seahawks are coming off two straight last-second home wins over the Patriots and Cowboys.  They stopped the Patriots at the 1-yard line to preserve that win, and then they picked off Dat Prescott in the end zone to preserve their win over the Cowboys last week.

Now this has the makings of a letdown spot for Seattle going on the road to face the Dolphins.  It’s a West Coast team traveling East for that dreaded early 10:00 AM body clock game.  It’s just a terrible spot for the Seahawks.

The Dolphins are just 1-2 this season, but they had their chances to win in their opener against the Patriots.  And they only lost 28-31 to a very good Buffalo team that is 3-0.  And last Thursday they dominated the Jaguars every way you can in a 31-13 road win as 3-point underdogs.

Now the Dolphins are playing on extra rest and will have more time to prepare for the Seahawks after playing on Thursday last week.  And this is a team that really believes in Ryan Fitzpatrick under center.  He completed 90% of his passes against the Jaguars last week and is still somehow grossly underrated as a starter in this league.

The Seahawks have all kinds of injuries right now.  They are missing several players in the secondary and at linebacker on defense.  Both starting guards got hurt last week on the offensive line, as did their best running back in Chris Carson.  Few teams have been hit harder by injuries early in the season than the Seahawks, and it’s eventually going to catch up to them.  Not even Russell Wilson can save the day.

Plays against favorites (Seattle) who are off a home win, in the first month of the season are 81-43 (65.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as home underdogs.  Miami is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS win.  The Dolphins are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet the Dolphins Sunday.

20* Oklahoma/Iowa State ABC No-Brainer on Iowa State +7

Oklahoma just lost outright to Kansas State as a 28-point favorites last week.  That was the same Kansas State team that lost as a 15-point favorite over Arkansas State in their opener.  And that was an Arkansas State team that was playing without 10 starters due to Covid-19.

So to say that was a bad loss to Kansas State would be an understatement.  And it’s clear the Sooners have another soft defense this year after giving up 38 points to Kansas State.  Plus they have finally downgraded the QB position going from Mayfield to Murray to Hurts, and now they are left with freshman QB Spencer Rattler, who threw three costly interceptions against Kansas State last week.

Iowa State’s loss to Louisiana in the opener was more forgivable.  The Cyclones gave up two special teams touchdowns and it was a misleading 14-31 final.  They also gave up a meaningless TD in the closing seconds with the game already over.  Louisiana is a Top 25 team and one oft he best non-power 5 teams in the country.

The Cyclones bounced back with a 37-34 win at TCU last week in which they overcame another non-offensive touchdown.  It’s a well-coached team that doesn’t make these kinds of mistakes under Matt Campbell.  So they should be shored up moving forward.

Now the Cyclones want revenge from a 41-42 loss at Oklahoma last year in which they went for the game-winning 2-point conversion at the end and failed.  Few teams have played Oklahoma as tough as Iowa State in recent seasons.  The Cyclones are 4-0 ATS in their four meetings with the Sooners under Campbell and all four were decided by 10 points or fewer.

After having zero fans in their home opener against Louisiana, the Cyclones will now be playing in front of 15,000 fans this week at home, which will make a difference.  And they are going with their favorite black jerseys for this nice game, jerseys that they are 3-0 in recent seasons when they’ve worn them.  This is a game the Cyclones can win outright, and at the very least, they won’t lose by more than a touchdown.

Campbell is 10-2 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of Iowa State.  Lincoln Riley is 1-8 ATS in road games after a game where they forced no turnovers as Oklahoma’s head coach.  Campbell is 20-8 ATS as a dog as the coach of Iowa State.  FBS teams coming off a home loss as a 23-point favorite or more where they gave up 30 or more points are 1-15-1 ATS int heir last 17 games when favored in their next game against an unranked opponents.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Vanderbilt +21

The Vanderbilt Commodores returned all 11 starters on defense this season and that experience and talent showed in their 12-17 loss to Texas A&M as 31.5-point underdogs in the opener.  Texas A&M is one of the best teams in the country so that effort showed what they are capable of.

Clearly, the Commodores don’t have a great offense but their defense can keep them in games.  Plus Derek Mason liked what he saw from true freshman QB Ken Seals, who completed 20-of-29 passes against Texas A&M.  And the defense only allowed 17 first downs and 372 total yards to a potent Aggies offense.

“Obviously it’s at the high school level, but what you saw on Saturday is what we saw of Ken coming out of high school; extremely accurate on the move as well as in the pocket, and those are the things that have shown up throughout camp,” Commodores coach Derek Mason said on Tuesday.

LSU lost 14 starters to the NFL draft and their leading receiver from last year in Ja’Marr Chase sat out the season, so that makes 15 draft picks really.  And it looks like a clear rebuilding year in Baton Rouge after the Tigers lost 34-44 to Mississippi State as 14.5-point favorites last week.  That’s a Mississippi State team in transition with a first-year head coach in Mike Leach, so it was a really bad loss.

The Tigers gave up an SEC-record 623 passing yards to K.J. Costello in the loss.  It’s clear their defense isn’t anywhere near it has been in years past, and the offense won’t be anywhere near the record-setting offense led by Joe Burrow last year.  New QB Myles Brennan did have 345 passing yards against Mississippi State, but he also threw two interceptions.  The running game produced just 80 yards on 38 carries, of course that counts the minus-45 yards on seven sacks.  Vanderbilt’s defense will make life even worse on Brennan this week.

If LSU wins this game, they’re going to have to win it ugly.  LSU is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a losing record.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  This is expected to be a low-scoring game, which favors the underdog Commodores with a total of just 50.5 points.  If they can play with Texas A&M, they can certainly play with this overrated LSU outfit.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Duke +13

It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Duke Blue Devils, who are 0-3 SU to start the season.  But they are coming off two misleading losses in which they turned the ball over a combined seven times against Boston College and Virginia, but were only outgained by a total of 141 yards by those two teams.  They showed their potential in their opener, only losing to Notre Dame 13-27 on the road as 21.5-point dogs and getting outgained by 107 yards.

I like the fact that Duke has three games under its belt, so it should be conditioned well and I can’t foresee the Blue Devils continuing to beat themselves.  And I like what I’m hearing from Duke coach David Cutliffe about this team leading up to this game.

“Yes it’s been challenging and it’s going to continue to be challenging,” Cutcliffe told reporters this week. “When you alter anything, you have to increase the quality of everyone you’re doing.  You may not believe this, but I think we’re close.”

This is exactly the type of role I like backing Duke, which is the role of a decent-sized underdog.  And remember last year Duke blitzed Virginia Tech 45-10 as 2.5-point underdogs.  They outgained the Hokies 422 to 259 in that game, so it was no fluke.  And they aren’t nearly two touchdowns worse than the Hokies in 2020.

Virginia Tech is coming off a misleading 45-24 win over NC State as a 6.5-point favorite despite only outgaining a bad Wolfpack team by only 109 yards.  That was the Hokies’ first and only game this season, so they won’t be in as good of playing shape.  They were missing a lot of players and coaches due to Covid-19 and will be without several more again this week.  Their depth will be tested here.

“Each week is different, and there is no guarantee that we’ll have the full complement of people coming into the next week,” coach Justin Fuente said. “It was nice for us to get to do it.  It was nice for us to play well.  Certainly, I don’t want to make too much of it.”

The Hokies are 7-22 ATS in their last 29 games as road favorites.  Virginia Tech is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a losing record.  Duke is 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 games as a home underdog.  The Blue Devils are 23-6 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.  The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take Duke Saturday.

15* Texas A&M/Alabama SEC ANNIHILATOR on Texas A&M +18.5

I’m willing to give Texas A&M a pass here with their 17-12 win as 31.5-point favorites over Vanderbilt.  They thought they could just show up and win that game, but Vanderbilt has a great defense and gave them a fight.  And it’s clear the Aggies were looking ahead to Alabama.

That ‘bad look’ has Texas A&M way undervalued this week catching 18.5 points against Alabama.  This is still one of the most talented teams in the country.  Jimbo Fisher is in his third year with the program so he has all of his players in place.  And the Aggies returned a whopping 17 starters and 72 lettermen, making them the 10th-most experienced team in the land.  They lost by 19 to Alabama last year, but that game was closer than the final score as the Aggies were only outgained by 59 total yards.  They should improve upon that result.

Alabama only has 12 returning starters and has to break in another new starting QB.  Their 38-19 win over Missouri wasn’t impressive at all as a 28.5-point favorite in the opener.  That’s a really bad Missouri team and they only outgained the Tigers by 92 yards.  And you know with Nick Saban as a head coach they weren’t looking ahead to Texas A&M, either.

Plays against home teams (Alabama) - after leading in their previous game by 17 points or more at the half against an opponent that scored and allowed 17 points or less in their previous game are 39-13 (75%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Aggies are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  The Aggies will give the Crimson Tide a run for their money this weekend.  Roll with Texas A&M Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Arkansas State -3

The Arkansas State Red Wolves have delivered nine straight winning seasons.  They have done so under seventh-year head coach Blake Anderson, who has stabilized the program. Now the Red Wolves returned 15 starters this year and the best QB situation in the Sun Belt.

Logan Bonner had a 10-to-1 TD/INT ratio last year before suffering a season-ending injury after four games.  Layne Hatcher took over and played admirably the rest of the way, finishing with a 27-to-10 TD/INT ratio.  Both guys split reps in their opener against Memphis.

Arkansas State only lost 24-37 to Memphis as an 18-point underdog.  That’s a Memphis team that won a school record 12 games last year and is loaded once again this year.  The Red Wolves even committed three turnovers in that game and failed to recover an onside kick when they were trailing by 4, which turned the tide of the game.  Memphis only outgained them by 86 yards.

I cashed in Arkansas State against Memphis, and I also cashed them in when they won outright 35-31 at Kansas State as 15-point underdogs.  They won that game despite missing 10 starters due to Covid-19.  And they should have won by more because they outgained the Wildcats by 115 yards and had 489 yards of total offense.  

That’s the same Kansas State team that just went into Oklahoma and won 38-35 outright as 28-point underdogs.  So that win looks even better now.  And while Arkansas State has played a brutal schedule thus far with those two road trips, they now take a big step down in class against Coastal Carolina.

Coastal Carolina is getting too much credit for its 2-0 start against an extremely soft schedule.  Their 38-23 win at Kansas was misleading because they were outgained by 49 yards by the Jayhawks.  And they failed to cover as 27.5-point favorites in a 43-21 win over FCS bottom feeder Campbell.

Now Coastal Carolina takes a big step up in class against an Arkansas State team that should have almost everyone back that tested positive for Covid-19.  The Red Wolves are clearly threats to win the Sun Belt with all the talent they have this year, and the Sun Belt has looked really good early in the season.  

The Red Wolves are 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS against Coastal Carolina over the last three seasons, outscoring them by a combined 63 points, or an average of 21 points per game.  The Chanticleers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games, including 1-5 ATS in their last six games as home underdogs.  Charlotte is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games after playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored.  Take Arkansas State Saturday.

15* LA Tech/BYU ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Louisiana Tech +25

Skip Holtz is doing a tremendous job at Louisiana Tech.  The Bulldogs have made six straight bowl games under his watch with four 9-plus win seasons and no fewer than seven wins in any of the last six seasons.  They are coming off a 10-3 campaign last season.

The Bulldogs are flying under the radar this season because they only returned eight starters.  But they only returned 11 last year and still won 10 games.  Holtz does wonders with inexperienced teams and does a good job of bringing in transfers while also developing players.  10 starters on offense are juniors or seniors and nine starters on defense are upperclassmen as well.

Louisiana Tech has opened 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS this season.  They went on the road and upset Southern Miss 31-30 as 7-point underdogs and then handled their business in a 66-38 win over Houston Baptist as 23.5-point favorites.  That’s the same Houston Baptist team that only lost by 2 points at Texas Tech the week prior.

Holtz always has a great quarterback and stud skill position players, and that has been no different in 2020.  Abilene Christian senior transfer Luke Anthony is the next great one here.  He has thrown for 463 yards with an 8-to-1 TD/INT ratio through two games.  He has found a nice connection with WR Adrian Hardy, who has nine receptions for 148 yards and a score.

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on BYU, which has covered the spread by a combined 78 points in wins over Navy and Troy, two programs that are clearly down this season compared to where they are normally at.  No question those wins were still impressive, but now BYU goes from being a 1.5-point favorite against Navy, a 14-point favorite against Troy to a whopping 25-point favorite against Louisiana Tech.  I think LA Tech would beat both of those teams.

Holtz is 35-18 ATS as a road underdog as a head coach.  The Bulldogs are 43-21 ATS in their last 64 road games.  Louisiana Tech is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a win.  The Bulldogs are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  The Bulldogs are 27-10 ATS in their last 37 games as road underdogs.  The Cougars are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as favorites.  BYU is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.  Roll with Louisiana Tech Friday.

20* Broncos/Jets AFC No-Brainer on New York -1

The injury situations for both the New York Jets and Denver Broncos are a mess.  I just think the injuries are worse for the Broncos, and the short week will favor Sam Darnold and the Jets over third-string QB Brett Rypien and Denver.

The Broncos had a combined 18 Pro Bowls when the 53-man roster was finalized to begin the season.  Now, only Melvin Gordon and his two Pro Bowls are left after Von Miller, Jurell Casey, Courtland Sutton, Phillip Lindsay and A.J. Bouye all went out with injuries.  Rypien will be making his first NFL start in place of the benched Jeff Driskel, who took the place of injured starter Drew Lock.

Certainly there hasn’t been much to like about the Jets this season.  But they have played one of the toughest schedules in the NFL against the Bills, 49ers and Colts, who are a combined 7-2 on the season.  This is a big step down in class for them and a game they can certainly win.

Coach Adam Gase likes the way that Darnold is showing some fire and doing everything he can to get this thing turned around.  And Darnold will get back one of his favorite weapons in Jamison Crowder from injury.  Crowder had seven receptions on 13 targets for 115 yards and a touchdown in the opener against Buffalo before missing the past two games with injury.  Bet the Jets Thursday.

20* Chiefs/Ravens ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Baltimore -3.5

The Baltimore Ravens have had this game circled on their calendars all offseason.  And they’ve done a good job of not overlooking their first two opponents to get to it, handling their business in a 38-6 home win over Cleveland as a 7-point favorite and a 33-16 road win at Houston as a 7-point favorite.  It’s clear the Ravens are the best team in the NFL, and they’re going to be out to prove it Monday night in a big way.

The Chiefs barely escaped with a 23-20 win at Los Angeles as 9-point favorites last week against a rookie QB in Justin Herbert, who diced them up.  The Chiefs allowed 479 total yards to a bad Chargers offense in that game, and they have a mess of injuries up and down their defense that is going to hurt them against the Ravens.

These teams have a common opponent to compare to in the Texans.  The Ravens were much more dominant in their 33-16 road win than the score would even indicate.  They outgained the Texans by 103 yards.  The Chiefs only outgained the Texans by 9 yards in their 34-20 home win that was much closer than the score would indicate.  And after that Chargers game, the Chiefs are now getting outgained by 28 yards per game on the season, while the Ravens have outgained their two opponents by an average of 87 yards per game.

Baltimore also wants revenge from a 28-33 loss to the Chiefs last season and a 24-27 (OT) loss in 2018.  The Ravens are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. AFC opponents.  Baltimore is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a win.  Bet the Ravens Monday.

15* Cowboys/Seahawks Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Dallas +5

The Dallas Cowboys are coming off the type of win that could really rally their team this week.  They suffered a tough 17-20 loss to the Rams in Week 1.  Then they found themselves trailing 24-39 to the Falcons with under five minutes remaining in the third quarter last week.

But the Cowboys kept fighting, got it to a 2-point game, and recovered a great onside kick.  They went on to kick the game-winning field goal and beat the Falcons 40-39.  I think they carry that momentum into this week against the Seattle Seahawks, who won’t have a home-field advantage at all like they normally do with the 12th man.

And without that home-field advantage, plus having a defense that is soft as better, the Seahawks cannot be laying 5 points this week to the Cowboys.  I look at these are pretty much even teams, so I’m going to take the 5 points every time.

Indeed, the Seahawks are giving up a whopping 27.5 points and 485 yards per game through two games.  The Falcons diced them up for 508 yards in Week 1, and Cam Newton had his best game in years with 397 passing yards last week.  Dak Prescott is going to dice them up this week as he has some of the best weapons in the NFL, and that was on display against the Falcons last week as the Cowboys racked up 570 total yards in their comeback win.

The Seahawks are also being overvalued due to all of the MVP talk surrounding Russell Wilson.  This is simply the case of the betting public getting mesmerized by the fancy offense the Seahawks have put up so far.  And they’re overlooking their atrocious defense. And Wilson faced two soft defenses in the Falcons and Patriots as well.  It’s also a bit of a letdown spot after beating the Patriots on Sunday Night Football.

Dallas is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 road games after trailing in its previous game by 14 or more points at halftime.  The Cowboys are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 road games after allowing 35 points or more last game.  Dallas is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games as an underdog.  Seattle is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 home games.

Plays against home favorites (Seattle) - with a poor scoring defense from last season that allowed 24 or more points per game, after scoring 30 points or more last game are 25-3 (89.3%) ATS since 1983.  Roll with the Cowboys Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Washington +7.5

I faded the Browns with success last week as I stated they shouldn’t be 6-point favorites against almost anyone in the NFL, and the Bengals came through in a 5-point loss.  And now I’m definitely fading the Browns again this week laying a whopping 7.5 points to Washington.

I think it’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on Washington after losing 15-30 at Arizona last week.  Arizona just looks like the real deal through two weeks, so it’s not a bad loss.  And people are quick to forget they upset the Eagles 27-17 as 5.5-point dogs in Week 1.  It’s a Washington team that is consistently going to have its lines inflated because the betting public wants nothing to do with them because they aren’t flashy.

But the Redskins are strong where it counts as they have arguably the best defensive line in the NFL.  They sacked Carson Wentz eight times in Week 1 thanks to having five former first-round picks up front.  And they will make life difficult on the overrated Baker Mayfield in this one, while also shutting down Cleveland’s solid rushing tack of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, who went off against a soft Bengals defense last week.

The Browns have injuries all over their defense that should lead to the best game of the season thus far for Dwayne Haskins and company.  Pass rushers Vernon and Clayborn are questionable, as are defensive backs Ward and Williams.  And they’re already missing Delpit in the secondary.  We saw Joe Burrow dice up the Browns for 30 points and 285 passing yards last week to keep the Bengals in the game as they just just couldn’t get him off the field.

Ron Rivera is 24-8 ATS off a road loss in all games he has coached.  Rivera is 10-2 ATS off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more in all games he has coached.  The Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as favorites.  Cleveland is 24-50-2 ATS in its last 76 games overall.

Plays against home favorites (Cleveland) with a poor scoring defense from last season that allowed 24 or more points per game, after scoring 30 points or more last game are 25-3 (89.3%) ATS since 1983.  Take Washington Sunday.

20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Falcons -3

There is a big strength of schedule gap here between the Falcons and Bears thus far.  The Falcons are 0-2, but they’ve lost to the Seahawks and Cowboys.  The Bears are 2-0, but they’ve only beaten the Lions and Giants by a combined 7 points.

The Bears came back from a 23-6 deficit in the 4th quarter against a depleted Lions secondary in Week 1 that went on to get gashed by the Packers last week.  And they only beat the banged-up Giants 17-13 at home, failing to cover as 5.5-point favorites.

The Falcons beat themselves against the Seahawks, gaining 508 total yards and outgaining the Seahawks by 123 yards.  And then they blew a 39-24 4th quarter lead against the Cowboys with under five minutes remaining last week.  It was a fluky loss as Atlanta had a chance to put the game away, but Julio Jones dropped a wide open TD pass he normally would catch.

Matt Ryan and this Falcons offense is hitting on all cylinders.  They have some of the best talent in the NFL at receiver and that has been on display through two weeks.  The Bears still have Mitch Trubisky at quarterback, and it’s just hard to trust him to play at anything other than a below-average level week in and week out because he is arguably the worst starting QB in the NFL.

Chicago is 0-7 ATS after playing a home games over the last two seasons.  The Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games with their only win coming with that miracle comeback win at Detroit in Week 1.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

20* Tennessee/South Carolina SEC No-Brainer on Tennessee -3

The Tennessee Vols started just 2-5 last year.  But they rebounded in a big way to go 6-0 in their final six games including a bowl win over Indiana.  And now the Vols enter their third season under Jeremy Pruitt, who just got a raise and a contract extension.

Pruitt now has mostly all of his players in place and the Vols could be a surprise contender in the SEC East.  They are one of the most experienced teams in the country, ranking 12th on that list due to returning a whopping 17 starters.

South Carolina went 4-8 last season and returns just 13 starters.  Injuries really hurt the Gamecocks last season and they aren’t going to be very good this season.  Will Muschamp has this team headed in the wrong direction, similar to what he did at Florida before he was let go.  He is one of the worst coaches in the SEC.

Plays against any team (South Carolina) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses against an opponent that closed out last season with four or more straight wins are 35-10 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Tennessee is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less.  Muschamp is 3-14 ATS in home games with a total of 42.5 to 49 in all games he has coached.  The Volunteers are 5-1 ATS in their last six conference games.  The Gamecocks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  The Vols are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 trips to South Carolina.  Take Tennessee Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Virginia -4

Bronco Mendenhall enters his fifth season at Virginia.  He led the Cavaliers to the Coastal Division title last year and the Cavaliers went on to play Florida very tough in the Orange Bowl, covering as 14-point dogs in a 28-36 loss.

Now the Cavaliers have 15 starters back and one of the best defenses in the ACC with eight starters and six of their top seven tacklers back.  They have seven starters back on offense, and although they do lose QB Bryce Perkins, he was mistake-prone last year and is replaceable.

Duke has looked terrible in its first two games this season.  The Blue Devils lost 13-27 to Notre Dame before falling 6-26 at home to Boston College last week.  That was a Boston College team with a new head coach playing their first game of the season.  And now they face a veteran Virginia team this week.  I think because it’s Virginia’s first game while Duke has already played two, that is being factored into the line too much.  The Cavaliers will handle it well.

After all, Virginia thumped Duke 48-14 as 3-point home favorites last year.  The Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The home team is 14-6 ATS in the last 20 meetings.  The Blue Devils are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  The Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Army +13.5

The Army Black Knights clearly came into 2020 underrated off their 5-8 campaign last year.  That followed up back-to-back 10-plus win seasons in 2017 and 2018.  But the Black Knights look like they’re back to being a team that can challenge for double-digit wins again in 2020.

Indeed, Army is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS this season beating Middle Tennessee 42-0 as 3.5-point favorites and LA Monroe 37-7 as 24-point favorites.  They have covered the spread by a combined 44.5 points in their first two games.  It’s taking the oddsmakers too long to catch on to how good this team is, and we’re getting value with them again this week as 13.5-point dogs to Cincinnati.

Cincinnati came in among the favorites to win the AAC this season after winning 11 games each of the past two seasons.  You are getting no discounts to back the Bearcats this season.  And they weren’t exactly a team that blew out their opposition on the regular last season.  Indeed, they went 4-1 in games decided by a TD or less to pad their record last year.

The Bearcats failed to cover as 39.5-point favorites in their opener against lowly Austin Peay in a 55-20 win.  Austin Peay moved the ball just fine on this Cincinnati defense, finishing with 353 total yards, which is pretty good for a poor FCS program.

Cincinnati didn’t play a triple-option team last year and won’t be prepared for Army in just a week’s time after beating Austin Peay last week.  Army has two weeks to prepare for Cincinnati after last playing on September 12th.  That’s a huge advantage for the Black Knights, who are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Bearcats.

Jeff Monken is 15-6 ATS in road games after playing a home game as the coach of Army.  The Black Knights are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 September games.  The Bearcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Roll with Army Saturday.

15* Iowa State/TCU Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on Iowa State -2.5

It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Iowa State Cyclones after their fluky 14-31 loss to Louisiana as a 13-point favorite in the opener.  The Cyclones gave up two special teams touchdowns and a TD in the final minute to make the score look way worse than it really was.

I still believe the Cyclones can contend for the Big 12 title with the talent they have on hand.  They just have a way of playing to their competition.  And they probably read the press clippings and thought they were better than they were in Week 1.

You know head coach Matt Campbell will have his team humbled with two weeks of practice to get ready for this game after playing Louisiana on September 12th.  And just having that game under their belt is a big advantage compared to TCU, which still has yet to play a game.

After winning eight games one time in 37 years before Campbell took over, the Cyclones have now had three straight eight-plus win seasons.  They were second in the Big 12 in yards per game differential (+62.6) last year and they returned 13 starters from that team.  They have eight starters back on D and may have the best stop unit in the Big 12.  And offensively they have almost all of their top weapons back led by QB Purdy and RB Hall.

TCU went just 5-7 last season, which included a 24-49 loss at Iowa State.  The Horned Frogs aren’t going to be a whole lot better in 2020 with just 12 starters back.  Starting QB Max Duggan isn’t going to start due to heart problems and it’s unclear how much he’ll play, if he plays at all.

Plays on road teams (Iowa State) - in the first month of a season, a bowl team from last season that lost their final two games, a game between two teams with five or less offensive starters returning are 32-8 (80%) since 1992.  These teams are close to even defensively, but the Cyclones have the huge advantage on offense.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on East Carolina +27

East Carolina went just 4-8 in Mike Houston’s first season on the job.  But they almost upset both Cincinnati and SMU, two teams that won double-digit games last year.  And they played UCF tough, only losing 28-41 as 35-point road underdogs.  

Now ECU is catching 27 points in the rematch, and the Pirates are going to be much better in Houston’s second season on the job.  He welcomes back eight starters on offense including the underrated Holton Ahlers at quarterback.  He has three receivers back that all had 670-plus receiving yards last season.  Ahlers is a dual-threat who rushed for 359 yards and six scores last year.  This offense is going to be good, plus five of the top six tacklers return on defense.

UCF had 10 players opt out of playing for personal reasons this season.  They also have another five players that are out or questionable with an injury.  They aren’t going to be strong enough to put away ECU by four-plus touchdowns, which is what it’s going to take to cover this huge spread.

The Knights are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.  UCF is 2-6 ATS in its last eight conference games.  Take East Carolina Saturday.

15* Dolphins/Jaguars AFC ANNIHILATOR on Miami +3

The Miami Dolphins will be highly motivated for a victory Thursday after opening 0-2 this season.  But they’ve played a brutal schedule facing both the Patriots and Bills, two of the best teams in the AFC.  Now they take a big step down in class here against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Dolphins nearly covered as 7-point dogs against the Patriots but lost 11-21 after Ryan Fitzpatrick threw an INT from inside the 10-yard line in the closing minutes.  They did cover as 5.5-point dogs in a 28-31 loss to Buffalo last week.  And they should not be catching a full 3 points against the Jaguars this week, if catching points at all.

The Jaguars are getting a lot of respect for starting 2-0 ATS.  They got a miracle 27-20 win over the Colts as 7-point dogs despite getting outgained by 204 yards.  And last week’s performance was much better despite losing, falling 30-33 as 7-point dogs at Tennessee.  Then again, I think the Titans are overvalued as well after what they did making a run to the AFC Championship last year.

The Jaguars lost almost all of their best players on defense this offseason, which is why they can’t be trusted in the favorites role.  They give up 26.5 points and 399.5 yards per game thus far.  Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to find plenty of holes in their D, especially after he led the Dolphins to 28 points against a very good Buffalo D last week.

Plays against home favorites (Jacksonville) - a team with a poor scoring defense from last season that allowed 24 or more points per game, after scoring 30 points or more last game are 24-3 (88.9%) ATS since 1983.  Miami is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games overall.  Jacksonville is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite.  Take the Dolphins Thursday.

20* UAB/South Alabama ESPN No-Brainer on South Alabama +7

South Alabama enters Year 3 under current head coach Steve Campbell.  It’s Year 3 where coaches/teams make their biggest improvements usually, and I certainly see that being the case for the Jaguars.  They would be double-digit favorites over the South Alabama teams of 2018 and 2019 this year.

The Jaguars return 15 starters this season.  The offense is loaded with eight returning starters and a lot of talent at the skill positions.  Campbell has brought in eight JUCO’s including three from national champion Mississippi Gulf Coast, where Campbell used to coach.  And the defense returns seven starters and five of its top six tacklers from last year.

I cashed on South Alabama +15 in a 32-21 outright win over Southern Miss as 15-point underdogs in their opener.  I also cashed in South Alabama +10 in a 24-27 loss to Tulane in which they blew a big lead two weeks ago.  And now the Jaguars are catching 7 points against UAB and I believe it’s too much as this team doesn’t get the respect they deserve.

I did like QB Desmond Trotter, who played well at the end of last year and to start this year. But Campbell clearly sees something great in Chance Lovertich, who replaced Trotter against Tulane and went 18-of-29 passing for 247 yards and two touchdowns without an interception.  So I trust his decision here to start him.

UAB struggled to put away FCS Central Arkansas in a 35-45 win as 21.5-point favorites in their opener.  The Blazers also lost 14-31 at Miami and failed to cover as 15.5-point dogs.  Bill Clark is doing a good job at UAB, but the secret is out on this team, and they’ve gone from being undervalued in recent seasons to overvalued in 2020.  And now they’ve lost starting QB Tyler Johnson III to a shoulder injury.  Redshirt freshman Bryce Lucero will get the start, and he went just 4-of-12 for 55 yards in relief against Miami.

The Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  The Jaguars are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  South Alabama is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  UAB is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less.  Bet South Alabama Thursday.

20* Saints/Raiders ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Oakland +5.5

The Los Vegas Raiders are primed to take another step forward under John Gruden.  He added a ton of speed on offense at the skill positions, and he shored up the defense in the offseason through free agency.  The Raiders are definitely a team to watch out for in 2020.

They opened their season with a 34-30 win at Carolina as 3-point favorites.  The offense played well in gaining 372 total yards, and the defense played well for three quarters as the Raiders had a 27-15 lead heading into the fourth.  I don’t think their task will be much tougher against the Saints at all this week defensively.

New Orleans is coming off a misleading 34-23 win over Tampa Bay last week.  The Saints only gained 271 total yards in that game, but they won the turnover battle 3-0, which was the difference.  Now the Saints’ offense takes a huge hit as they’ll be without the most productive receiver in the NFL in Michael Thomas for at least a few weeks with an ankle injury.  He is Drew Brees’ security blanket, and without him this offense is average at best.

Plays against favorites (New Orleans) - off a home win, in the first month of the season are 77-37 (67.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Raiders will be pumped to break in the all-new Allegiant Stadium tonight.  They should not be catching 5.5 points against the Saints tonight in a game they can win outright.  Bet the Raiders Monday.

15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Washington +7

I cashed in Washington against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 1.  It didn’t look good early as they were down 17-0.  But they dug in and completely shut down the Eagles the rest of the way, eventually winning 27-17.  They forced four 3 and outs, stopped the Eagles twice on downs, and forced three turnovers after being down 17-0.

I mentioned in my analysis on that pick that Washington had the best defensive line in the NFL, and teams can win with a good defensive line.  They drafted the best player in the draft in Chase Young, who had a sack and basically forced two fumbles.  Young joins four other first-round picks on this dominant Washington defensive line.  

They sacked Carson Wentz a whopping eight times in that game.  They held the Eagles to just 265 total yards.  And they have what it takes up front to get after Kyler Murray this week and slow him down.

The Cardinals are simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers off their upset win over the 49ers.  That was a 49ers team that only had three healthy receivers and were down to a third-string center.  Now the Cardinals go from being 7-point dogs to the 49ers to 7-point favorites over the Redskins.  That’s a 14-point swing, and for comparison’s sake, the 49ers aren’t 14 points better than the Redskins.

Washington head coach Ron Rivera will see that DeAndre Hopkins had 14 catches against the 49ers and game plan around stopping him.  Murray had 14 completions to Hopkins and only 12 other completions.  So it’s pretty clear they are making a point of getting the ball to Hopkins, so expect plenty of double-teams on him.

Washington is a perfect 7-0 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last three seasons.  Rivera is 17-6 ATS off an upset win as an underdog in all games he has coached.  So he is good at getting his team to keep playing with momentum off a big win.  Washington will give Arizona a run for its money.  Roll with Washington Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Philadelphia Eagles ML -105

This line is a complete overreaction to what happened Week 1.  The Eagles opened as 3.5-point favorites and the money has poured in on the Rams early in the week, going to Rams -1 as of this writing.  That’s a 4.5-point adjustment, and an overreaction to Week 1 results.

The Eagles were upset 17-27 by the Redskins as roughly 6-point favorites in Week 1.  They blew a 17-0 lead against a Washington team that I am higher on than most.  I had Washington in that game and they delivered for me with the comeback.  Their best defensive line in the league sacked Carson Wentz eight times.  The task gets much easier for Wentz this week against the Rams.

Meanwhile, the Rams upset the Cowboys 20-17 last week as 3-point dogs to open, but eventually that line was bet down to close to a pick ‘em.  I also cashed in the Rams in that game and felt kind of fortunate that there was an offensive pass interference call that changed the game.  The Cowboys were a mess defensively with injuries, and the Rams still only managed 20 points on them.

Things get much tougher for Jared Goff and company this week.  The Eagles have a Top 10 defense and they’ll be able to slow down Goff and company.  Plus they’ll be playing with a chip on their shoulder, while the Rams will be feeling pretty good about themselves after upsetting the Cowboys.

Teams that were 5.5-point favorites or more in Week 1 that lost outright come back to go 26-11 ATS in their last 37 tries in Week 2.  This trend makes sense why it works because it’s betting on teams that were supposed to be good coming into the season, they laid an egg in Week 1, and they’re likely to bounce back in Week 2.  That’s the case for the Eagles Sunday.

The Eagles are getting a lot of good news on the injury front.  They had several offensive linemen go down to injuries against the Redskins.  But G Jason Peters and T Lane Johnson are both listed as probable as of Thursday, and those are two of their best linemen.  RB Miles Sanders is also probable after sitting out last week, and DE Derek Barnett is probable as well after sitting out last week.

The Rams are 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six meetings with the Eagles.  Philadelphia is 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Los Angeles.  Dating back further, Philadelphia is 10-3 SU & 11-1-1 ATS in its last 13 meetings with the Rams.  Take the Eagles Sunday.