20* Kent State/Buffalo MAC Tuesday No-Brainer on Kent State +21.5 

Buffalo (8-1, 5-0 MAC) plays Ohio (6-3, 4-1 MAC) next week in the game that will decide the MAC East title.  The Bulls will certainly have that game in the back of their minds, knowing they could actually lose to Kent State and win next week and still capture the MAC East crown.  That’s a precarious spot to be in mentally, and I certainly don’t think the Bulls are capable of covering this massive 21-point spread given the situation. 

Kent State is a vastly improved team this year.  I know the record shows 2-7, but this is a team that scored just 12.8 points per game last year, which was the second-worst mark in college football.  Former Syracuse offensive coordinator Sean Lewis has turned the Golden Flashes into a much more competitive team this year, with an improved offense and an improved defense. 

Kent State is two 1-point losses away from behind 4-5 this year instead of 2-7.  They lost 23-25 to Akron as 5-point home dogs and 26-27 to Ohio as 11.5-point home dogs.  That effort against Ohio showed they could play with anyone in the MAC, because Ohio is as good as any of these MAC teams.  The Bobcats have been steamrolling everyone else of late. 

The weather conditions also make me like the underdog Golden Flashes.  It’s going to be a windy night in Buffalo with the average wind at 30 MPH.  There will be gusts up to 50 MPH.  That’s why the total on this game has dropped from 52 all the way down to 43.  And getting 21 points with a team with a total of only 43 is usually a great proposition. 

Both teams will be running the football almost exclusively to keep the clock moving and avoid making mistakes.  And Kent State has been solid at running the ball this year.  They are averaging 178 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry.  And they’ve been respectable at stopping the run, giving up 4.2 yards per carry against teams that normally average 4.4 per carry. 

Buffalo rushes for 173 yards per game and 4.3 per carry, numbers similar to Kent State but actually worse.  And Buffalo allows 3.9 per carry against teams that normally average 4.0 per carry.  So they haven’t faced too many good rushing offenses yet, meaning their defensive numbers are a bit skewed.  Tyree Jackson is clearly the better quarterback in this matchup for Buffalo, but his passing will almost be a non-factor. 

The road team is 9-1-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  The Golden Flashes are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six trips to Buffalo.  Bet Kent State Tuesday. 

20* Titans/Cowboys ESPN No-Brainer on Dallas -5 

The Cowboys can’t afford to fall further behind the Redskins in the NFC East, especially after losing to them last time out.  But they’ve had two weeks to recover after missing a potential game-tying field goal at the gun.  And I look for them to play with an attitude here Monday night against the Tennessee Titans. 

The vibes have to be pretty good in Dallas after management made a huge trade to get Amari Cooper.  The Cowboys had arguably the worst playmakers in the NFL at receiver prior to the trade, so Cooper is going to be worth a lot to this team.  And they’ve had nearly two weeks to get him acclimated to the offense. 

Having Cooper will help the play-action passing game flourish for sure.  Because the Cowboys are already great at running the ball, averaging 137 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry.  And they should have some success against a Titans defense that has allowed over 100 rushing yards in five of their seven games this season.  Plus, opposing teams like the Titans won’t be able to stack eight in the box to try and stop Zeke Elliott any more because the Prescott can make them pay. 

I really like this Dallas defense, though.  The Cowboys are giving up just 17.6 points and 313.7 yards per game this season.  They rank 2nd in scoring defense and 3rd in total defense this year.  That’s bad news for the Titans, who have one of the worst offenses in the NFL. 

Indeed, the Titans rank 30th in scoring offense (15.1 points/game) and 30th in total offense (280.9 yards/game).  Consider that only the Bills and Cardinals have been worse on offense, and those are two terrible offensives.  Those three units are far and away the three worst offenses in the league. 

Dallas has had some drastic home/road splits this season.  The Cowboys are 0-4 on the road, but 3-0 at home.  They are outscoring their opponents by 14.0 points per game in their three home games this year.  They are scoring 28.7 points per game and giving up just 14.7 points per game at home.  That’s why I’m not afraid to lay this big of a spread with the Cowboys as 5-point favorites.  They should have no problem winning by a touchdown or more. 

The Titans are very fortunate to be 3-4 this season.  All three of their wins came by exactly a field goal, and two of those were at home.  Their only road win came at Jacksonville in a huge letdown spot for the Jaguars off their win over the Patriots the previous week.  They also lost outright to both Miami and Buffalo on the road.  So I give them little chance of pulling off this upset, let alone staying within 5 points of the Cowboys. 

Dallas is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 home games vs. poor offensive teams that average 285 or fewer yards per game.  The Cowboys are winning by 14.9 points per game on average in this spot.  Jason Garrett is 19-9 ATS vs. AFC opponents as the coach of the Cowboys.  The Titans are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a losing record.  Tennessee is 9-27-3 ATS in its last 39 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Cowboys are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games following a bye week.  Dallas is 9-4-1 ATS in its last 14 vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Cowboys Monday. 

25* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Saints -1.5 

I won on the Packers last week fading the unbeaten Los Angeles Rams.  And I’m fading the Rams again this week.  They are simply overvalued due to their 8-0 record this season, and I’ve been fading them almost every week because of it.  No team is going to go 16-0, and this is the Rams’ best chance to lose a game to date when they have to travel to face the New Orleans Saints in the Superdome this week. 

The Rams have won four of their last five games by a touchdown or less and have gone 1-4 ATS in the process.  They are starting to show their vulnerabilities, and that 1-4 ATS run just shows how overvalued they’ve been.  Their four road wins have come against the Raiders, Seahawks, Broncos and 49ers.  They only beat the Seahawks by 2 and the Broncos by 3.  This will be by far the Rams’ stiffest road test to date. 

The Saints are winning with conviction of late.  They have reeled off six straight victories since their upset loss to the Bucs to open the season.  They have gone 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Three of their last four wins have come by double-digits. 

The Saints are fresh after having a bye in Week 6.  They returned from that bye and went on the road to beat the Ravens and the Vikings, two impressive victories.  And now they return home to what will be a raucous home crowd Sunday afternoon with essentially first place on the line in the NFC. 

I think a big reason for the Rams’ recent struggles to put teams away is that they are simply getting tired.  They haven’t had their bye week yet and don’t get it until Week 12.  And after playing a dog fight against the Packers last week, I’m not sure what they’ll have left in the tank for the Saints this week. 

Todd Gurley has been a beast for the Rams this season.  But the Saints actually have what it takes to slow him down.  The Saints rank 1st in the NFL against the run this season, giving up just 74.1 rushing yards per game and 3.2 yards per carry.  It has been a big reason for their resurgence the last several weeks, and I look for it to be a key factor in why they win this game as well. 

The Saints are 8-1 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 24 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  The Rams are 30-62-1 ATS in their last 93 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  New Orleans is 24-5 ATS in its last 29 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  When the Saints have to play a good team at home, they usually take care of business.  Finally, the home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings in this series.  Bet the Saints Sunday. 

15* Steelers/Ravens AFC North No-Brainer on Baltimore -2 

I realize the Steelers are going to want revenge from their 26-14 home loss to the Ravens earlier this season.  That is definitely a factor, but I don’t think the Steelers will be any more motivated than the Ravens.  In fact, I actually think Baltimore is the more motivated team coming into this game. 

The Ravens are coming off back-to-back losses to the Saints and Panthers, and there’s no shame in those two losses.  But sitting at 4-4 on the season compared to 4-2-1 for the Steelers, this is essentially a must-win game for the Ravens.  They can’t afford to fall further behind the Steelers if they want to win the division.  And knowing that they have a bye on deck next week, the Ravens will be ‘all in’ Sunday to try and go into their bye with a win and some momentum heading into the second half of the season. 

I think there’s value getting the Ravens here as less than a field goal favorite.  The Steelers are starting to get some respect because of their three-game winning streak coming in.  But they beat a Falcons team that had all kinds of injury issues, beat a Bengals team that they have simply owned over the past decade, and their other win came against Cleveland off their bye week.  Those three wins aren’t impressive at all. 

It’s pretty clear to me that despite having the worse record, the Ravens are actually the better of these two teams.  The Ravens are outgaining their opponents by 85 yards per game this season.  That’s one of the best marks in the NFL.  They are led by a defense that ranks 1st in the NFL scoring defense (17.1 PPG), 1st in total defense (293.8 yarsd/game) and 1st in yards per play (4.7) allowed.  They also have a vastly improved offense this season that ranks 14th in total offense (379.2 yards/game). 

The Steelers are also a good team, outgaining opponents by 58 yards per game.  While impressive, it isn’t as good as the Ravens, and it’s largely due to the lack of competitive over the last three weeks.  The Steelers still have all kinds of issues on defense.  They are 16th in scoring defense (24.6 PPG) and 16th in total defense (359.7 yards/game). 

Pittsburgh didn’t score a single point against Baltimore in three of the four quarters in their first meeting.  The Ravens won that game 26-14, and Joe Flacco had a monster day.  He completed 28-of-42 passes for 363 yards and two touchdowns int he win.  He clearly knows how to beat this soft Pittsburgh defense, and I look for the Ravens to hang another big number on the Steelers in the rematch. 

Mike Tomlin is 2-9 ATS in road games after covering the spread in four of their last five games as the coach of Pittsburgh.  Ben Roethlisberger hasn’t been nearly as good on the road as he has been at home in his career.  He is only averaging 22.4 points per game on the road.  And he has a 55-to-40 TD/INT ratio on the road compared to a 107-to-40 ratio at home.  John Harbaugh is 6-0 ATS after allowing 24 points or more in the first half last game as the coach of Baltimore.  The Ravens are coming back to win by 10 points per game on average in this spot.  Roll with the Ravens Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Browns +10 

Betting on teams after they fire their head coach is usually a great spot to do so.  Teams get rejuvenated for one week with a new voice, and that should be the case here for the Cleveland Browns.  I love them catching nearly double-digits at home this week against the Kansas City Chiefs, and I expect one of their best efforts of the season here. 

The Chiefs are overvalued due to their 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS start to the season.  You’re starting to have to pay a tax on them.  I faded the Chiefs last week with success as they were 10-point favorites over the Broncos and won by 7.  I’m fading them again this week, this time as 10-point road favorites, but I like the Browns all the way down to +7 in this one if you can’t get the great line that I did. 

So we’ll ‘sell high’ on the Chiefs and ‘buy low’ on the Browns, who are coming off three straight losses.  But the Browns are 2-1-1 at home this season with their only loss to the Chargers.  They beat the Jets and Ravens, and tied the Steelers.  So they’ve already played two of the best teams in the AFC in the Ravens and Steelers and stood toe-to-toe with them at home. 

Greg Williams is a great defensive coordinator, and the Browns still have a very good defense.  Their problem has been against the run, but they’ve been good against the pass, making this a great matchup for them.  The Browns are holding opposing quarterbacks to just 6.7 yards per attempt against QB’s that average 7.6 yards per attempt, so they’re holding them 0.9 yards per attempt less than their season averages. 

The Browns should be able to really get their offense going this week against a Kansas City defense that is one of the worst in the NFL.  Indeed, the Chiefs rank 31st in total defense, giving up 432.4 yards per game.  They are also 27th in yards per play (6.3) allowed.  That’s why the Chiefs can’t sustain this success is because they have a terrible defense.  And they have some key injuries on defense with Eric Berry doubtful, and starting LB’s Justin Houston and Anthony Hitchens questionable.  The Chiefs also give up 5.4 yards per carry while the Browns have been running the ball well, averaging 127 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry.  They can control the ball with their running game and keep Mahomes off the field. 

Kansas City is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after gaining 6 or more yards per play in four consecutive games coming in.  It is actually losing outright by 1.7 points per game in this spot.  The Browns are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The underdog is also 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  There is a ton of value catching the Browns as more than TD home underdogs this weekend.  Take the Browns Sunday. 

15* BYU/Boise State ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on BYU +13 

The Boise State Broncos are grossly overrated.  There’s no way they should be laying 13 points to a very good BYU team that is capable of hanging with the Broncos, and possibly pulling off the upset.  I’ll gladly take the value with the road underdog in this rivalry. 

The Broncos have gone just 4-2 SU & 2-3-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They only had one real solid performance during this stretch, which was their 34-14 win at Wyoming as 15.5-point favorites where they outgained a bad Cowboys team by 211 total yards.  Other than that, they have actually been outgained in three of their last six games.  And they pushed in a 48-38 win at Air Force last week as 10-point favorites while only outgaining them by 87 yards.  And they won 31-27 at Nevada as 14.5-point favorites in a game where they only outgained the Wolf Pack by 120 yards. 

BYU comes in undervalued off its 6-7 upset home loss to Northern Illinois last week as 6.5-point favorites. But that’s a very good NIU team whose only losses this season have come to Iowa, Utah and Florida State.  And keep in mind that BYU had a bye heading into that game, so they will still be fresh and ready to go against Boise State this week. 

I also look for the Cougars to be max motivated against their rivals here needing two more wins to get bowl eligible.  They still have a road game at Utah in the season finale, so they’ll be playing with a sense of urgency, especially after blowing a golden opportunity to beat NIU last week.  They outgained the Huskies by 97 yards and really should have won. 

The Broncos have lost their home-field advantage.  They are just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 home games.  Boise State is 1-8 ATS in home games after committing zero turnovers in their previous game over the last three seasons.  Brian Harsin is 0-6 ATS as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points as the coach of Boise State, actually losing outright by 0.9 points per game on average in this spot. 

The Cougars are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games, which includes an outright win as 23.5-point dogs at Wisconsin earlier this year.  BYU is also 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a loss.  Bet BYU Saturday.  

15* Alabama/LSU CBS No-Brainer on LSU +14.5 

For starters, this is the largest home underdog role for a Top 4 team in the country ever.  LSU has lost by double-digits only once at home in the past decade.  And there’s nothing like a night game in Baton Rouge.  So the Tigers have everything going for them here as 14.5-point home underdogs to Alabama Saturday night. 

No question what Alabama has done so far has been mighty impressive.  They are not only winning, they are winning big.  But with that 8-0 record and all those blowout wins comes expectations from oddsmakers that are tough to live up to.  And we’ve seen that recently with the Crimson Tide going 2-3 ATS in their last five games overall coming in. 

The problem I have with Alabama is that they haven’t faced any real good teams yet.  The best opponent they played was Texas A&M, and they played them at home.  They won by 22 as 23.5-point favorites, failing to cove the spread.  Alabama has faced just two Top 50 teams all season and have played the 60th-toughest schedule in the country. 

Conversely, LSU has played the 6th-toughest schedule in the country.  They’ve already played five Top 30 teams.  And they have gotten through that gauntlet at 7-1.  What more does this team need to do to get some respect from oddsmakers?  The Tigers will certainly be playing the disrespect and underdog cards leading up to this game, which works in their favor big-time, especially with the home crowd on their side. 

This will easily be Alabama’s toughest test of the season to date, and it’s not really even close.  LSU has gone 4-1 against those five Top 30 teams with road wins over Miami and Auburn, and home wins over Georgia and Mississippi State.  That 36-16 beat down of Georgia was really impressive as they outgained the Bulldogs by 158 yards and gained 475 total yards on offense.  And they avoided the letdown the next week with an equally impressive 19-3 win over Mississippi State. 

No question the Crimson Tide have the edge on offense with better quarterback play, but this LSU offense is getting it done and has been better than in year’s past.  And the Tigers actually have the better defense this year because they’ve put up nearly identical numbers to Alabama despite facing the tougher schedule.  They are giving up just 15.1 points per game.  They are holding opposing quarterbacks to 50.6% completions and just 200 passing yards per game.  They have what it takes to slow down this Alabama offensive freight train. 

Ed Orgeron is 10-0 ATS vs. good passing teams who average 8 or more yards per attempt as the coach of LSU.  The Tigers are winning by 19 points per game in this spot having never lost against the spread.  That perfect record continues here this weekend as the Tigers get the cover and possibly pull off the upset.  Roll with LSU Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Louisiana Tech +23.5 

This could not be a worse spot for Mississippi State.  The Bulldogs are coming off a huge 28-13 home win over Texas A&M last week after playing LSU, Auburn, Florida and Kentucky in their previous five games.  And now they step out of conference to face LA Tech with a game against Alabama looming on deck next week.  This is a sandwich spot if I’ve ever seen one. 

We’ve seen these SEC teams fail to cover time and time again in these sandwich spots when they step out of conference.  And I don’t expect to get the best effort from Mississippi State here.  The Bulldogs will be just looking to get out of Starkville with a win.  They won’t be concerned at all about covering this massive 23.5-point spread. 

Louisiana Tech went into LSU and gave the Tigers a run for their money earlier this season.  They lost 21-38 as 19.5-point underdogs, covering the spread.  But that was a 21-24 game in the second half before the Tigers tacked on two late touchdowns to pull away.  And LSU beat Mississippi State 19-3 in their meeting just two weeks ago.  So LA Tech is catching more points here against Mississippi State than they were against LSU.  That fact alone shows there’s value, even without considering the awful situational spot for Mississippi State. 

And this is one of the better teams Skip Holtz has had at Louisiana Tech.  They are 6-2 this season with their only losses coming to LSU and UAB, which may be the best team in Conference USA.  Those teams are a combined 14-2 this season 

I love backing Skip Holtz as an underdog.  In fact, Holtz is 21-7 ATS in his last 28 games as a head coach as a road underdog.  LA Tech is 6-0 ATS in road games off a conference game over the last two seasons.  LA Tech is 8-1 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last three years.  LA Tech is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 vs. SEC opponents.  LA Tech is 37-17 ATS in its last 54 road games.  Take Louisiana Tech Saturday. 

15* Notre Dame/Northwestern ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Northwestern +9.5 

We see this year after year with Notre Dame.  They’ll get off to a hot start and get into the playoff conversation before shitting the bed down the stretch.  The Fighting Irish are now ranked No. 4 in the initial college football playoff rankings.  They have expectations now, and those expectations are very tough for them to live up to.  Notre Dame is just 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games in the month of November. 

That has proven to be the case in their last two games as the Fighting Irish have failed to cover the massive spreads.  They only won 19-14 as 21-point home favorites against Pittsburgh two games ago.  And last week they won 44-22 as 22.5-point favorites over Navy, failing to cover against a Navy team that is way down this year. 

And that Navy game also figures into this handicap.  Teams don’t tend to do well the following week after facing a triple-option team.  Those are physical games where the defense gets cut-blocked continuously.  That’s especially the case for Notre Dame over the years after facing Navy.  In fact, the Fighting Irish are just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games after facing Navy. 

Just bet the underdog in Northwestern games this season and you’d be a perfect 9-0 ATS.  The Wildcats always rise to the occasion in the role of the dog, and fail to meet expectations as a favorite.  That could just be a reflection of head coach Pat Fitzgerald.  He’s able to get his players up for these big games, and that has been the case all season for the Wildcats. 

Indeed, Northwestern 4-0 ATS as an underdog this season, and 0-5 ATS as a favorite.  They won at Purdue 31-27 as 1-point underdogs.  They only lost 17-20 at home to Michigan as 14.5-point dogs.  They won 29-19 at Michigan State as 10.5-point road underdogs.  And last week they upset Wisconsin 31-17 as 4.5-point home dogs. 

The Wildcats have a strong defense that is holding opponents to just 23.6 points per game this season.  And Clayton Thorsen has put the offense on his shoulders and really improved his draft stock with what he has been able to do against these good teams.  He has led the Wildcats to four straight victories in Big Ten play and certainly will be relishing the opportunity of trying to knock off unbeaten Notre Dame. 

The Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last five games in the month of November.  Northwestern is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS win.  Fitzgerald is 9-2 ATS off three straight conference wins as the coach of Northwestern.  Don’t be surprised if the Wildcats pull off another upset here, but 9.5 points is simply too much either way.  Roll with Northwestern Saturday. 

20* AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on SMU +14 

The Houston Cougars are coming off a huge win over ranked and previously unbeaten South Florida last week.  They now have a two-game lead for first place in the West Division.  This is now a massive letdown spot for the Cougars, and that’s not being priced into the line here.  They should not be 14-point road favorites over SMU this week. 

The Mustangs are the team that trails Houston by two games in the division, so they will be max motivated to get a win here and stay alive.  And I really like the way this SMU team is playing coming in.  They are 3-2 in their last five games with a home win over Navy and a road win at Tulane.  Their only two losses came to UCF and Cincinnati, who teams who are a combined 15-1 this season.  And they only lost in overtime to Cincinnati. 

SMU only lost 22-35 on the road at Houston last year.  And SMU pulled one of the biggest upsets of the season at home against Houston in 2016.  They came in as 23.5-point underdogs and won 38-16, covering the spread by 45.5 points.  The Mustangs are live underdogs in this game here Saturday as well. 

The Cougars are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games on field turf.  Houston is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.  The Cougars are simply overvalued right now and in a very tough spot here against the Mustangs.  They’re getting way too much respect for their win over an overrated South Florida team last week.  Roll with SMU Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Florida -6 

The Missouri Tigers beat up on weak competition and lose to good competition.  The Tigers went 1-13 in 2016 and 2017 against bowl teams.  And this year they have folded against the best competition.  They are 0-4 in SEC play this year and I’m not expecting them to pick up their first conference win of the season this week at Florida. 

Drew Lock has a 24-to-29 TD/INT ratio against Power 5 teams that make it to a bowl game, but a 61-to-8 ratio in all other games in his career.  Lock has a 1-to-5 ratio in SEC play this season and an 11-to-1 ratio against non-conference opponents.  Lock is also 0-9 SU against Top 25 teams in his career. 

I think this is a worse spot for Missouri this week than Florida.  The Tigers are coming off a gut-wrenching last-second loss to Kentucky.  The final score showed 14-15, but the Tigers were actually outgained in that game by 136 total yards.  Lock and the offense were held to just 239 total yards against a good Kentucky defense, one that’s similar to the one they will be up against this weekend at Florida. 

Certainly the Gators won’t be feeling too hot after tier 17-36 loss to Georgia in the Cocktail Party.  But they still have big aspirations and can have a 10-win season if they win out while making a New Year’s Six Bowl.  And they should be favorites in the rest of their games to do so. 

Keep in mind that Florida had a bye before the Georgia game, so they are still fresh.  And Dan Mullen is one of my favorite head coaches in the country.  Considering this is his first year with the program, he won’t let this team quit on their season.  He’ll get the most out of them and I expect the Gators to show up this week and handle their business against Missouri. 

Another reason they should show up is because they were embarrassed 16-45 at Missouri last year.  Obviously that was a completely different Florida team with suspensions and injuries, but many of these players have not forgotten that loss.  They want to put a beat down on Missouri similar to the 40-14 thrashing they put on the Tigers in Gainesville in 2016. 

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Missouri) - with a good offense that averages 450 or more total yards per game, after being outgained by 125 or more yards in their previous game are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Tigers didn’t have a single first down in the second half against Kentucky last week.  They’ll struggle to get anything going against what may be the fastest defense in the SEC in the Gators this week.  Take Florida Saturday. 

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Texas -2 

The West Virginia Mountaineers are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers due to their 6-1 start this season.  They have played the 59th-toughest schedule in the country, and that easy schedule is the reason for their fast start.  But we’ve seen this time and time again with Dana Holorsen teams.  When the competition gets tougher, the Mountaineers fold. 

West Virginia still has Oklahoma, Texas, Oklahoma State and TCU remaining on the schedule.  Their toughest game thus far was a trip to Iowa State.  They lost 30-14 in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score even showed.  They were outgained by 346 yards by the Cyclones and held to just 152 yards of total offense.  They have played the rest of the worst teams in the Big 12 up to this point. 

Texas has been through the gauntlet already while facing the 18th-toughest schedule in the country.  They handed Oklahoma their only loss of the season.  I am not concerned with their loss to Oklahoma  State last week.  I think they’ll bounce back in a big way knowing that if they run the table, they will win the Big 12 regular season title and beat headed to the conference championship game.  They’ll be 100% focused and ready to go Saturday knowing that WVU is likely their biggest threat to play Oklahoma in the title game. 

The Mountaineers have played just two true road games this season.  They barely won at Texas Tech and were thoroughly outplayed by Iowa State.  Texas is 4-0 at home this season and holding opponents to just 17 points per game.  They have a defense the caliber of Iowa State’s that can give Will Grier fits as well.  This will be Grier’s stiffest test of the season to date. 

I also think West Virginia is getting too much respect from its home blowout win over Baylor last week.  But the Bears basically gave that game away by losing the turnover battle 4-0.  And Holgorsen is 5-19 ATS off a game where they forced three or more turnovers as the coach of West Virginia. 

Texas is 8-1 ATS vs. teams who average 8.5 or more passing yards per attempt over the last three seasons.  The Longhorns are 11-3 ATS vs. teams who score 37 or more points per game over the last three years.  They usually step up against good offensive teams like West Virginia.  That will be the case again this weekend.  West Virginia is 0-7 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons.  Take Texas Saturday. 

25* Sun Belt GAME OF THE YEAR on Louisiana-Monroe +7.5 

Georgia Southern is coming off one of the biggest wins in program history.  They beat Appalachian State 34-14 to take the lead in their division last week.  And now they have a huge game on deck against Troy next week.  This is clearly a sandwich spot for them, and I don’t expect them to show up at all. 

That was a misleading win over Appalachian State, too.  The Eagles won outright as 11-point underdogs.  But they had a huge advantage after star App State QB Zac Thomas was knocked out with an injury on the first series.  Their backup quarterbacks combined for five turnovers the rest of the way to basically gift-wrap the victory for Georgia Southern. 

Louisiana-Monroe comes in at 4-4 on the season and in need of a victory if they want to get bowl eligible. Three of their losses have come to Troy, Texas A&M and Ole Miss.  They are coming off a bye week as well, so they’ve had two full weeks to prepare for Georgia Southern’s option offense.  I always like backing teams who have extra prep time against option offenses.  It’s safe to say that this couldn’t be a better spot for the Warhawks. 

Louisiana-Monroe is 6-1 ATS in its last seven November games.  The Warhawks are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.  This game really doesn’t matter to Georgia Southern at all because if they win next week against Troy, they will win the East division and head to the Sun Belt title game.  Conversely, Monroe is tied for first place in the West and needs this win more if they want to be serious contenders.  Bet Louisiana-Monroe Saturday. 

15* GA Tech/UNC ACC Early ANNIHILATOR on Georgia Tech -6 

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets have really turned the corner here of late.  They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with blowout wins over Bowling Green (63-17), Louisville (66-31) and Virginia Tech (49-28) with the latter two coming on the road.  Their only loss came to a Duke team that was coming off a bye week. 

I have a good feeling the Yellow Jackets are going to put UNC out of its misery here.  The Tar Heels are just 1-7 on the season with nothing to play for now.  They have suffered some tough close losses of late and I just don’t know how much more they can handle.  I think they’ve hit their breaking point now that they’ve officially been eliminated from bowl contention.   

Meanwhile, Georgia Tech still needs two more wins for bowl eligibility.  And with Miami and Georgia still on the schedule, the Yellow Jackets are looking at this like a must-win game here against the Tar Heels.  So they should be max motivated.  Plus, the Yellow Jackets get extra time to prep after playing last Thursday, while UNC played on Saturday.  That’s a hidden rest and prep advantage here for Georgia Tech. 

Georgia Tech beat UNC 33-7 as 8-point home favorites last season.  The Yellow Jackets have rushed for 300-plus yards in nine of their last 10 meetings with the Tar Heels.  They should have their way on the ground again against a UNC defense that is allowing 191 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry this season. 

Georgia Tech is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games following an upset win by 10 points or more as a road underdog.  The Yellow Jackets are 9-1 ATS after gaining 125 or fewer passing yards in three straight games over the past two seasons.  Georgia Tech is 6-0 ATS vs. bad defensive teams that allow 31 or more points per game over the last three years. 

Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UNC) - after having lost five or six of their last seven games against an opponent that’s won three of their last four games are 25-4 (86.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Plays on road favorites (Georgia Tech) - after outfighting opponent by 100 or more yards in three straight games against an opponent that was outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 25-3 (89.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Georgia Tech Saturday. 

20* Pitt/Virginia ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh +7.5 

Virginia is in a spot it is not used to here Friday night against Pitt.  The Cavaliers are now the hunted and not the hunters after a 6-2 start to the season.  They have already clinched bowl eligibility and are ranked for the first time since 2011.  That’s a huge accomplishment for a program that has had just one winning season since 2008. 

But now the Cavaliers have to deal with expectations.  And they will surely be getting serenaded in the media all week leading up to this game.  I can’t help but think they will not put forth their best effort given what they have just accomplished.  I look for them to come out flat, which is going to make it difficult for them to cover this 7.5-point spread against Pitt. 

The Pitt Panthers will show up because they are fighting to make a bowl.  They sit at just 4-4 this season with three road games in their last four to close.  They may not be favored in any of the four games.  So they have to give it their all to try and scrape out two wins to get to a bowl.  And it’s clearly to me they’ve already started to fight with how well they’ve played the last three weeks. 

Pitt is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall despite being an underdog in all three games.  The Panthers upset Syracuse 44-37 as 3-point home dogs.  They then gave Notre Dame all they wanted in a 14-19 road loss at 21-point dogs.  And last week they beat Duke 54-45 as 2.5-point home dogs.  If that’s not an impressive run then I don’t know what is. 

The problem with asking Virginia to lay points is that they just don’t have that good of an offense.  They have been held to 28 or fewer points in five of their last seven games overall.  The only exceptions were the 45 they scored against an awful Ohio defense and the 31 against a bad UNC defense.  Pitt will offer some resistance here, and they’ll certainly be able to put up some points with an offense that is clicking right now. 

Pitt is 4-1 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in five meetings with Virginia over the past five seasons as ACC opponents.  The only loss came by 5 by a final of 19-24 as 5-point underdogs.  Pitt beat Virginia 31-14 at home last season, 45-31 on the road in 2016, and 26-19 at home in 2015. 

The Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last six conference games.  Pitt is 7-2 ATS in its last nine vs. a team with a winning record.  Virginia is 14-28 ATS in its last 42 games after having won four of its last five games coming in.  I don’t think the Cavaliers will handle all the hype they’re getting right now very well.  And I know we’ll get a big effort from Pitt, which should be good enough to cover this 7.5-point spread regardless of whether or not Virginia shows up.  Bet Pittsburgh Friday.

15* Raiders/49ers NFL Thursday Total DOMINATOR on OVER 45.5 

We have the 1-7 San Francisco 49ers against the 1-6 Oakland Raiders Thursday night.  It’s two teams who have little to play for but pride the rest of the way.  And I certainly like backing OVERS in games when this is the case.  The offenses almost always show up in these primetime games between bad teams, but whether or not the defenses show up is another story. 

And it’s not like either of these two teams have played much defense up to this point, especially Oakland.  The Raiders are giving up 31.1 points and 407.4 yards per game this season.  The 49ers are allowing 29.5 points and 364.4 yards per game. 

Both offenses have actually been pretty good.  The Raiders are averaging 369.7 yards per game and the 49ers 348.2 yards per game.  Derek Carr is still having a solid season, and with the Raiders losing Marshawn Lynch, he’s actually had to throw more.  That means more points and more clock stoppages without the threat of a running game.   

The 49ers have put up some very good offensive showings against the Chargers and Packers even with CJ Beathard at quarterback.  They had 27 points against the Chargers and 30 against the Packers.  They did not play well against the Rams or Cardinals in the other games that Beathard has started, but now they are up against the worst defense they’ve faced this season in the Raiders tonight.  They should have one of their best offensive outputs of the season. 

I realize the 49ers have some injuries on offense, and the Raiders traded away Amari Cooper, but I’m not worried.  The Raiders have such a bad defense that even though they’re healthy they still can’t stop anyone.  And the 49ers have worse injuries on defense than on offense.  They are missing SS Jaquiski Tartt and starting LB Reuben Foster, not to mention CB Richard Sherman is questionable. 

Plays on the OVER on any team against the total (San Francisco) - in non-conference games, off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival.  The OVER is 18-6-3 in Raiders last 27 games in November.  The OVER is 8-0 in Raiders last eight games in Week 9.  The OVER is 8-3 in 49ers last 11 games overall, including 4-1 in they last five home games.  Take the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Temple/UCF ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on Temple +11 

The UCF Knights are ranked 12th in the initial playoff rankings.  They are getting respect for going 13-0 last season and 7-0 this season for a 20-0 record over the past two years.  And with that record comes expectations from oddsmakers that are going to be tough to live up to moving forward.  I don’t think the Knights should be 11-point favorites over Temple in this game. 

The problem I have with UCF is that they have played nobody.  They have faced the 125th-ranked schedule in the country.  Their seven wins have come against UConn, South Carolina State, FAU, Pitt, SMU, Memphis and ECU.  They best opponent there was probably Memphis and they only won that game 31-30 as 4.5-point road favorites.  I have no doubt Temple is the best team they will have faced yet. 

The Temple Owls have been one of the most underrated teams in the country over the past few seasons.  That’s evident by the fact that they are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games overall.  They have gone 6-0 ATS in their last six games this season as they have been a completely different team since their 0-2 start. 

Temple has won five of its last six games with its only loss coming at Boston College 35-45, but covered the 13-point spread.  The Owls outgained five of those six opponents, so there was nothing fluky about the run.  They also won outright as 16-point dogs at Maryland 35-14 while covering by 37 points.  They have played very well on the road this season and certainly will be up for this game to knock off an unbeaten, ranked squad in UCF here. 

UCF QB McKenzie Milton actually had to sit out last game against ECU with an ankle injury and is questionable to return this week.  All signs are that Milton will play but not at 100%.  The Tigers were outgained by ECU and they were also outgained the previous week by Memphis.  Their defense gave up 496 yards to ECU and 490 yards to Memphis.  It’s their defense that is the biggest reason it will be difficult to beat Temple by double-digits Thursday night. 

The Owls are 22-5 ATS in their last 27 conference games.  Temple is 41-18 ATS in its last 59 road games.  The Owls are 10-1 ATS vs. good rushing teams who average 230 or more yards per game over rate last three years.  Temple is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Owls are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games off a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers.  The UCF winning streak may come to an end here this week.  Bet Temple Thursday.

15* Miami Ohio/Buffalo MAC No-Brainer on Miami Ohio +7.5 

The Miami Ohio Redhawks need a win here Tuesday to keep their bowl hopes alive.  They sit at just 3-5 on the season, but 3-1 in MAC play and only one game out of first place in the MAC East.  They can move into a tie with Buffalo, tonight’s opponent, with an upset win Tuesday.  It’s safe to say they will be ‘all in’ to try and win this game tonight given the situation. 

I like how this Redhawks team has responded following a tough start to the season with three consecutive non-conference losses to Marshall, Cincinnati and Minnesota.  They have gone 3-2 SU and a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Their two losses came by a single point each with a 39-40 home loss to Western Michigan and a 30-31 road loss to Army.  And now they’re catching 7.5 points against Buffalo. 

The Bulls are 7-1 this season and getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers because of it.  But they do have a common opponent with Miami Ohio in Army, and Buffalo lost that game 13-42 at home as 7-point favorites.  As stated before, Miami Ohio only lost by a single point at Army when they played them last time out. 

While Buffalo may have a slight edge on offense, Miami has a clear edge on defense.  The Redhawks are holding opponents to 48 yards per game and 0.6 yards per play less than their season averages.  The Bulls are holding their opponents to just one yard less than their season average and are dead even in yards per play based on what their opponents average this season.  I think this is a much more evenly-matched game than this line would suggest. 

Miami Ohio is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with Buffalo.  The Redhawks won 24-14 as 3-point home favorites in 2017, 35-24 as 10-point road favorites in 2016, and lost only 24-29 as 7-point home dogs in 2015. 

The Redhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last five conference games.  Miami Ohio is 4-1 ATS in its lsat five road games.  The Bulls are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games following a bye week.  Chuck Martin is 13-5 ATS in conference road games as the coach of the Redhawks.  Roll with Miami Ohio Tuesday. 

15* Patriots/Bills AFC East ANNIHILATOR on New England -13.5 

I rarely take double-digit favorites in the NFL.  In fact, I can’t remember the last time I took a double-digit road favorite.  That being said, I think the Patriots can cover this 13.5-point spread at Buffalo this week.  The Bills are the new Cleveland Browns of the NFL this season, especially without Josh Allen at quarterback. 

Allen injured his elbow two weeks ago against the Texans with the Bills actually leading late.  Nathan Peterman came in and through one of his patented pick-six’s, and the rest was history.  The Bills new they couldn’t even be competitive with Peterman, so they signed Derek Anderson out of retirement. 

That experiment didn’t work either.  The Bills were routed 37-5 at Indianapolis last week and committed five turnovers.  Anderson is expected to get the start again this week, and while he should be a little sharper, I don’t think he stands much of a chance of making the Bills competitive.  Especially not against a team that caliber of the Patriots. 

The Patriots have been a juggernaut ever since opening 1-2.  They added Josh Gordon and got Julian Edelman back from suspension, and their offense has taken off.  The Patriots are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  Their only non-cover was a 3-point win over the Chiefs are 3.5-point favorites. 

The Patriots have scored at least 38 points in four consecutive games while averaging 39.3 points per game during this span.  I think they can get to 38-plus here against the Bills, which should be more than enough to cover this 13.5-point spread. 

The Bills are dead last in scoring offense at 11.6 points per game and 31st in total offense at 234.0 yards per game.  I just don’t see how they can possibly generate enough offense with Anderson at quarterback and the worst receivers in the NFL to hang with the Patriots. 

The Patriots are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 meetings in Buffalo.  They have won their last three meetings with the Bills by 21, 20 and 16 points.  And those were better Buffalo teams than this 2018 version.  New England is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 road games.  The Patriots are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. teams with a losing record.  There will be no letdown for Tom Brady and company on Monday Night Football.  Bet the Patriots Monday. 

20* Packers/Rams NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Green Bay +10.5 

Aaron Rodgers has never been this big of an underdog as a starting quarterback in his career.  So from a value perspective, I love getting Rodgers as a double-digit underdog here against the Los Angeles Rams.  Rodgers is 4-0 ATS lifetime as an underdog of 6 points or more. 

Plus, the Packers are coming off their bye week, so they’ll be rested an ready to go.  The bye week has allowed several players to get healthy, including tackles Brian Bulaga and Jason Spriggs, CB Breshaud Breeland, and WR’s Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison.  Rodgers should have his full complement of weapons on offense for the first time this season.  And the Packers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a bye week. 

The Rams are clearly overvalued due to their 7-0 start.  They are the last unbeaten team in the NFL, and the betting public flocks to unbeaten teams.  With that record comes expectations from oddsmakers that are very difficult to live up to.  The Rams are good, but they are not 10 points better than the Packers. 

The Packers are 3-2-1 this season, but their numbers suggest they are a better team than that.  They are putting up 421 yards per game on offense and giving up just 328 yards per game on defense.  They are outgaining opponents by 93 yards per game, which is one of the best marks in the NFL.  They have what it takes to hang with the Rams for four quarters.  And with Rodgers under center they’ll never be out of it. 

The Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with the Rams.  I think this is a tough spot for the Rams off three straight road games.  Teams on the road this long are always tired when they get home, and there are more obligations when they get home.  It’s a big distraction, and I think it will be for the Rams here. 

Mike McCarthy is 11-2 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in three of the last four games as the coach of Green Bay.  The Rams are 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.  The Rams are overvalued off their blowout win over the 49ers last week.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

Note: The Packers are a 20* all the way down to +7.5.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Denver Broncos +10.5 

The Kansas City Chiefs are getting a lot of love from the betting public right now.  They are not only 6-1 SU, but also 7-0 ATS this season.  They are the only team that has covered the spread on every closing line this year.  Of course that’s going to attract betting from the public. 

But this line has gotten out of hand this week.  The Chiefs are now 10.5-point home favorites over the Broncos.  This is a Broncos team that gave the Chiefs one of their toughest games of the season in Denver.  They only lost 23-27 after blowing a late 10-point lead in the fourth quarter.  Now, just four weeks later, they get their shot at revenge. 

I love the spot for the Broncos because of the revenge, but also because they have extra rest here.  They played last Thursday in what was a must-win game and came through with their best performance of the season.  They throttled Arizona 45-10 as 1-point road favorites.  But they are getting no credit for that win, while the Chiefs are getting a ton of love after beating the Bengals 45-10 on Sunday Night Football. 

The Chiefs have been getting by with bad defense as they rank dead last in total defense at 435.4 yards per game allowed.  They are only outgaining opponents by 2 yards per game on the season.  That’s not the sign of a team that should be 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS.  At some point, it’s going to catch up with them being this bad defensively. 

Compare their numbers to Denver and these are two pretty evenly matched teams.  The Broncos are also getting outgained by two years per game this season.  They have a vastly improved offense that is putting up 23.6 points and 376.4 yards per game this season.  Their defense has a lot more talent than the numbers have shown to this point as they’re giving up 23.4 points and 378 yards per game.   

They held the Chiefs to just 13 points in the first 53 minutes last meeting, so they know what it takes to slow them down.  Now they just got to find a way to stop the Chiefs late if they want to pull off the upset.  The good news is they don’t have to win this game for us to win, they just have to stay within 10 points, which shouldn’t be a problem.  The road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Roll with the Broncos Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Ravens/Panthers UNDER 44 

I’m shocked to see a total this high between two of the best defenses in the NFL in the Carolina Panthers and Baltimore Ravens.  I think there’s a ton of value with the UNDER in this matchup Sunday in what will be a good old-fashioned defensive battle. 

The Ravens lead the NFL in scoring defense at 14.4 points per game allowed.  They are also 1st in total defense at 280.6 yards per game allowed.  The Panthers are 10th in scoring defense at 21.8 points per game, and 13th in total defense at 355.3 yards per game. 

Both of these teams like to run the football and both have suspect quarterback play and weapons.  The Ravens have been a lot worse offensively on the road than at home. They are scoring just 19.7 points per game on the road this season. 

The UNDER is 5-0 in Ravens last five games overall.  They have seen 41 or fewer combined points in four of those five games.  The only exception was the 47 points against New Orleans last week, but that game still stayed UNDER the 49-point total.  And that’s the Saints, not the Panthers, a team with a better defense but a lot worse offense than New Orleans. 

The UNDER is 35-14-2 in Ravens last 51 games after gaining more than 250 passing yards in their previous game.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Ravens last five road games.  The UNDER is 20-8 in Panthers last 28 home games vs. teams who average 260 or more passing yards per game.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday. 

20* Georgia/Florida SEC No-Brainer on Florida +7 

I came into the season loving Florida with the OVER 8 wins as my favorite win total.  And they’ve done nothing to disappoint me.  They’ve gone 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS this season as a hugely underrated commodity.    And they remain underrated as 7-point underdogs to Georgia here in the Cocktail Party. 

Just look at common opponents and it’s easy to see that Florida is the better of these two teams.  They’ve both played the same three teams this season.  Florida is 3-0 against them, outscoring them by 14.7 points per game.  Georgia is 2-1 against them, inly outscoring them by 11.4 points per game. 

The one game that really stands out is the LSU game.  Florida beat LSU 27-19 and held the Tigers to just 371 total yards.  Georgia lost 16-36 at LSU and gave up 475 total yards.  The Bulldogs were pushed around at the line of scrimmage, while the Gators stood their ground.  Georgia rushed for 275 yards on Georgia and 180 against Florida.  Florida rushed for 215 yards against LSU while Georgia rushed for just 113 yards.  And I think Florida winning the battle at the line of scrimmage is the key to their victory here. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Florida) - a good rushing team that gains 190 to 230 RYPG against a team with a good run defense that gives up 100 to 140 RYPG, after outrushing their last opponent by 150 or more yards are 30-9 (76.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. 

Dan Mullen is 15-5 ATS versus excellent rushing teams that average 5.25 or more yards per carry in all games he has coached.  Florida is 34-17 ATS in its last 51 road games when playing with two or more weeks’ rest.  The Bulldogs are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games following a bye week.  The Gators are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Florida Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Connecticut +5 

This young UConn team went through the gauntlet to start the season.  They are 1-6 with their six losses coming to UCF, Boise State, Syracuse, Cincinnati, Memphis and South Florida with four of those on the road.  They have played the 26th-toughest schedule in the country. 

I was all over UConn last week as 34-point underdogs at South Florida as my 25* AAC GAME OF THE YEAR.  They easily covered in a 30-38 loss.  A big reason I was on them was because of the difficult schedule, and also because they were coming off a bye.  And bye weeks are huge for young teams.  There’s no question this team took a big step forward on their bye week. 

And now they should still be fresh here with Mass coming to town this weekend, and a great chance for the Huskies to pick up their second win of the season.  These opportunities are few and far between for this team, so I look for them to take advantage and be playing with a lot of confidence following that 8-point road loss to unbeaten and ranked South Florida. 

I’m shocked UMass is a road favorite here.  This is a Minutemen team that is just 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS on the season with their only win coming at home against Charlotte as favorites.  All six of their losses have come by double-digits, including their 13-24 home loss to Coastal Carolina last week as 2-point favorites.  They also have losses to Boston College, Georgia Southern, FIU, Ohio and South Florida.  As you can see, that’s a much easier slate than what UConn has been up against.  The Minutemen have played the 100th-toughest schedule in the country. 

Now UMass even has to deal with the loss of their best player in QB Andrew Ford, who is out for the season with a leg injury.  He has put up huge numbers over the past few seasons for the Minutemen.  Ford is completing 64.4% of his passes for 1,340 yards with a 9-to-5 TD/INT ratio for Mass this season.  There’s a big downgrade to their backup quarterback.  Without Ford, it makes even less sense that the Minutemen are favored here. 

UConn has actually put up solid offensive numbers this season despite the brutal schedule.  They hung 30 points and 455 total yards on South Florida last week.  And they should be able to do whatever they want to offensively against a UMass defense that is allowing 42.2 points and 500 yards per game.  UConn allowed a season-low in points last week and this defense certainly got a lot healthier over the bye week.  This defense will be much better the rest of the way than it was in the first half of the season, simply with experience and healthy, plus the fact that the schedule gets a lot easier. 

UConn is a perfect 9-0 ATS in its last nine games off two consecutive road losses.  The Minutemen are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  These two trends combine for a perfect 14-0 system backing the Huskies, who are simply undervalued right now because the betting public wants nothing to do with them.  There’s going to be value on the Huskies moving forward, including this week.  Take UConn Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Arkansas +1.5 

It was always going to take some time for Chad Morris to turn around this Arkansas program.  After a 1-6 start to the season, the Razorbacks had been through the gauntlet.  Their final four losses during that stretch came against Auburn, Texas A&M, Alabama and Ole Miss.  But there were parts of every one of those games that were good signs for Arkansas moving forward. 

The 3-34 loss at Auburn was one of the biggest misleading finals of the year.  Arkansas actually outgained Auburn by 65 yards in that game while holding the Tigers to just 225 total yards.  They only lost 17-24 at Texas A&M the next week and easily covered the 19-point spread.  Then they hung 31 points on Alabama and covered the 34.5-point spread.  And then they held a 10-point lead over Ole Miss late, but lost 33-37, covering as 6.5-point underdogs. 

The Razorbacks took out their frustration last week with a 23-0 win over Tulsa as 7-point favorites.  The defense has made major strides in recent weeks, and the offense is playing much better under QB Ty Story.  Quietly, the Razorbacks have gone 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  And they’re once again getting zero respect as home underdogs to Vanderbilt here. 

We see this happen to Vanderbilt every season.  They’ll get off to a great start in non-conference play, but then get worked in SEC play.  And it’s been more of the same this year.  Vanderbilt is 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in SEC play this season.  In between the four losses was an ugly 31-27 home win over Tennessee State as 28.5-point favorites. 

Vanderbilt lost 14-37 at home to South Carolina as 1.5-point dogs and were outgained by 250 yards.  They were crushed 13-41 at Georgia as 25.5-point dogs and outgained by 239 yards.  They lost at home to Florida 27-37 as 9.5-point dogs and were outgained by 240 yards.  They did only lose 7-14 at Kentucky last time out as 10.5-point dogs, but that’s an overrated Kentucky team. 

The Commodores are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 conference games.  The Razorbacks are 5-1 ATS in their last six conference games.  Arkansas is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven home games.  Vanderbilt is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after gaining less than 100 rushing yards in its previous game.  The Commodores are 2-17 SU in SEC road games since 2013.  The Razorbacks are 5-1 SU in their last six meetings with Vanderbilt.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.

25* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State -3 

The Iowa State Cyclones have played the toughest schedule in the entire country to this point according to the Sagarin ratings.  That explains why they are just 3-3 on the season, and they’ve done a great job of winning three games when you consider they’ve been an underdog in five of their six games this year.  And they were competitive in every game as they didn’t lose once by more than 10 points. 

Iowa State’s resurgence in its last two games have been a lot about freshman QB Brock Purdy.  He took over against Oklahoma State and led the Cyclones to a 48-42 victory as 10-point road underdogs.  And he also led them to a 30-14 home win over West Virginia as 4.5-point dogs. 

Purdy is completing 75% of his passes for 572 yards with a 7-to-2 TD/INT ratio and 11.9 yards per attempt.  He is a dual-threat with 122 rushing yards and a score as well in those two games.  Star RB David Montgomery is back healthy, and WR Hakeem Butler is a beast who is averaging 20 yards per reception with 5 touchdowns.  The run-pass option of Purdy, Montgomery and Butler is one of the deadliest trios in the country. 

But it’s this Iowa State defense that deserves the credit.  The Cyclones held Will Grier and the high-powered WVU offense to just 152 total yards and outgained them by 346 yards for the game.  Despite playing the toughest schedule in the country, the Cyclones are only giving up 22.7 points per game and 316.7 yards per game.  They are holding opponents to 115 yards per game and 1.5 per play below their season averages. 

I think the bye week came at a great time after the win over West Virginia.  Any team that plays a tough early schedule needs a bye, and the Cyclones got it at the perfect time.  Now they can refocus for the stretch run.  They have a legit shot to make the Big 12 title game because they will be favored in five of their final six games with the only exception being at Texas. 

Kliff Kingsbury learned his offense from WVU head coach Dana Holgorsen.  And Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell has owned the Red Raiders in his two meetings against them.  The Cyclones won 66-10 as 3.5-point home dogs in 2016.  They also won 31-13 as 7-point road dogs in 2017.  They have covered the spread by a combined 85 points in their two games against Texas Tech under Campbell.  And their defense held held that potent Red Raiders offense to just 11.5 points and 321 yards per game in the two meetings. 

The Cyclones are 22-6-1 ATS in their last 29 games overall.  They have been way undervalued over the past three seasons under Campbell, and they continue to be here as only 3-point home favorites in a game I expect them to win in blowout fashion.  Iowa State is 8-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.  Texas Tech is 5-17 ATS in its last 22 games as a road underdog of 3 to 7 points.  Kingsbury is 2-9 ATS off a conference win by 10 points or more as the coach of Texas Tech.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

20* Clemson/Florida State ACC Early ANNIHILATOR on Florida State +17 

For starters, this is the biggest home underdog role for Florida State since at least 1980.  That was the furthest I was able to look back.  So that fact alone show you there’s value with Florida State as 17-point home dogs to Clemson this week. 

It was always going to take some time for first-year head coach Willie Taggart to implement his systems.  And it was ugly to start this year as the Seminoles opened 1-2 with blowout losses to Virginia Tech and Syracuse, as well as a narrow home win over FCS foe Samford. 

But the Seminoles have gotten going in recent weeks.  They are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They beat Northern Illinois by 18 at home, won 28-24 at Louisville, and beat Wake Forest by 21 at home.  Their only loss was a 28-27 road loss at Miami as 14-point dogs, so they covered the spread with ease and actually led that game 27-7 before giving up 21 unanswered to close. 

I was impressed with the way the Seminoles came out of their bye week following that heartbreaking loss to Miami.  They swiftly took care of business against Wake Forest in that 21-point win.  And now they will be amped up to face the No. 2 team in the country in Clemson. 

I think Clemson comes in overvalued off its 41-7 win over NC State last week at home.  The Wolfpack were ranked coming into that game, so the win looks better than it was, but they were clearly overrated.  And most teams Clemson goes up against they have the better athletes, but that won’t be the case here against Florida State. 

Florida State hasn’t lost by more than 17 points to Clemson in any of the last 12 meetings in this series.  And the lone 17-point loss came last year at Clemson as 16.5-point dogs.  Well, that was a 17-14 game with only three minutes to go.  Clemson got two touchdowns in the final three minutes, including a 10-yard run with 35 seconds left when they could have simply kneeled.  I think these FSU players remember the way that Clemson kind of rubber their noses in at the end of the game and will be looking for revenge. 

The Seminoles didn’t have QB Deondre Francois for that game as he was lost for the season in the opener against Alabama.  Francois is starting to grasp Taggart’s offense, and his talents are really starting to show over the past four games.  He has a 10-to-2 TD/INT ratio in his last four games while throwing for at least 294 yards in three of the four. 

Plays against road favorite of 10.5 to 21 points (Clemson) - a team that outgains their opponents by 125 or more yards per game, after gaining 525 or more total yards per game in their last two games are 48-17 (73.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Th home team is 14-6 ATS in the last 20 meetings.  Clemson is 14-29 ATS in its last 43 games off three straight wins over conference opponents.  The Seminoles are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.  Take Florida State Saturday. 

20* Miami/Boston College ACC No-Brainer on Boston College +3.5 

The Boston College Eagles still have their sights set on an ACC title.  They sit at 5-2 on the season with one of their losses being a non-conference loss at Purdue, which looks better and better by the day.  And their other loss was a 23-28 road loss to NC State.  And now the Eagles get to host both Miami and Clemson in two of the next three weeks, so they have a legitimate shot. 

It should be a great atmosphere for the Eagles on a Friday night home game on ESPN.  The Eagles are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this year, outscoring opponents by 27.5 points per game.  They are scoring 50.0 points and putting up 521.2 yards per game at home this year, and giving up just 22.5 points and 294.5 yards per game. 

Boston College is remarkably healthy right now.  The only player listed on the injury report is RB A.J. Dillon, but he is probable.  And while Dillon (652 yards, 6 TD) is a special back, he is one of five players averaging at least 5.6 yards per carry for the Eagles.  BC has one of the best offensive lines in the entire country, and their ability to move Miami back will be the key to them winning this game. 

Maimi’s five wins this season have come against Savannah State, Toledo, FIU, UNC and FSU with four of those wins coming at home.  When they’ve stepped up in class, they haven’t performed well.  They lost 17-33 to LSU on a neutral in what was a 33-3 game before the Hurricanes tacked on two late garbage touchdowns.  They only beat Florida State 28-27 at home as 14-point favorites, and actually trailed 27-7 in that game.  And they lost 13-16 at Virginia as 7-point favorites. 

Miami does have a laundry list of injuries with 10 players out.  And they keep playing musical chairs at quarterback.  After a sluggish start to the season, Malik Rosier was benched.  But now after that 13-16 loss to Virginia, the Hurricanes are going back to Rosier this week.  He has held back this offense over the past two years and he won’t have much success against his stingy BC defense this week, either. 

Miami is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games off an upset loss to a conference opponent as a favorite of 6 or more points.  The Hurricanes are 0-6 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive ATS losses over the last three years.  The Eagles are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 conference games.  Boston College is 13-3-1 ATS in its last 17 games overall.  The Hurricanes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record. 

Plays against road favorite of 3.5 to 10 points (Miami) - off a road loss, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Boston College Friday.

15* Dolphins/Texans AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston -7.5 

Most folks wrote the Houston Texans off after an 0-3 start.  But a closer look at the numbers showed that they simply were unfortunate to lose all three games.  They were outgained by 64 yards at New England, but they outgained Tennessee by 154 yards and New York by 48 yards and probably should have won both of those games. 

Since then the Texans have reeled off four straight victories and are currently in first place in the AFC South.  And they have a great opportunity here to grab a stranglehold on the division with a win over the Miami Dolphins Thursday night.  I think they win in blowout fashion here at home tonight. 

The numbers show the Texans are one of the better teams in the NFL.  They are outgaining opponents by 42 yards per game and 0.5 yards per play on the season.  Watson and the offense are moving the football at will, and JJ Watt and the defense are playing at a very high level.  They have allowed 7, 13 and 16 points in their last three games, respectively. 

I think this Houston defense will feast on a banged-up Miami offense that is playing with a backup QB and has several injury concerns at receiver.  Brock Osweiler will start in place of Ryan Tannehill.  And he’ll be without his two best weapons in Kenny Stills and Albert Wilson, while DeVante Parker and Danny Amendola will both be playing through injury.  Stills is averaging 17.6 YPC with 4 touchdowns while Wilson is averaging 15.0 YPC with 4 touchdowns.  That’s two huge losses. 

The Dolphins are not a very good team as they’re a fraudulent 4-3 this season.  They are actually getting outgained by 76 yards per game this season.  The problem I have with Miami is their defense, which is giving up 405.3 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this season.  They are soft at the line is scrimmage, giving up 137 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry.  They’re also allowing 269 passing yards per game and 8.0 per attempt. 

Adam Gase is 0-7 ATS in road games off a loss as the coach of Miami.  The Dolphins are 7-23 ATS in their last 30 games after allowing 400 or more yards per game in their last three games.  Miami is 1-7 ATS in its last eight road games.  The Dolphins are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet the Texans Thursday. 

15* App State/Georgia Southern Sun Belt ANNIHILATOR on Georgia Southern +10.5 

Appalachian State just moved into the Top 25 for the first time in program history this week.  I always like fading teams who just reached the Top 25 that aren’t used to it.  They start getting national recognition and feeling fat and happy.  And they have extra expectations from oddsmakers that they simply cannot live up to. 

I’m shocked to see the Mountaineers as double-digit road favorites over Georgia Southern tonight.  There’s so much to like about this game, but it starts with the value perspective fading the Mountaineers because of their Top 25 ranking. 

The second-most important factor is that Georgia Southern runs a triple-option offense, and Appalachian State only has a few days to get ready for it after playing on Saturday.  Triple-option teams have a huge advantage on a short week every time.  It’s simply the most difficult offense to prepare for because defensive fundamentals are so important. 

This Georgia Southern team is one of the most underrated in the country.  They returned 18 starters this year, so this was already going to be a veteran bunch.  And they have come out guns-a-blazing with a 6-1 start and are legitimate threats to Appalachian State to win the Sun Belt.  Their only loss this season came on the road at Clemson. 

Georgia Southern is a perfect 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS at home this season.  They are outscoring their opponents 36.7 to 13.2 on average, or by 23.5 points per game at home.  The Eagles are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games dating back to last year.  Head coach Chad Lunsford is 6-0 ATS in games played on a grass field as the coach of Georgia Southern. 

Plays against a team with a winning percentage of 80% or better (Appalachian State) - after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games when playing another team with a winning record are 59-23 (72%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with Georgia Southern Thursday. 

15* Ball State/Ohio MAC ANNIHILATOR on Ball State +11 

Sitting at 3-5 on the season, the Ball State Cardinals need a win tonight if they want any chance of making a bowl game.  I look for them to lay it all on the line here against the Ohio Bobcats to get a win.  I love catching double-digits with this hungry Cardinals squad tonight. 

I have no doubt Ball State is better than is 3-5 record, too.  Three of the losses came by 8 points or fewer, including a 16-24 loss at Notre Dame as 33.5-point underdogs.  The only exceptions were a 10-38 loss at Indiana and a 20-42 loss to Eastern Michigan, which is probably the best team in the MAC.  And they’ve only been outgained by more than 69 yards once this season, and that was the 110 yards at Indiana. 

Many expected Ohio to compete for a MAC title this year, but this team looks far from a MAC title contender thus far.  The Bobcats opened the season with a 38-32 home win over Howard as 30.5-point favorites and were outgained by 220 yards in that game.  That was a sign of things to come for this team. 

The Bobcats have been outgained in five of their seven games this season, so they are very fortunate to be 4-3.  The only two teams they outgained were Bowling Green and UMass, and both of those games were at home.  Their other two wins came against Kent State 27-26 as 11-point favorites and that 6-point win over FCS foe Howard.  Ball State is much better than the four teams Ohio has beaten this year. 

I think we’re getting some extra value here on the Cardinals based on last week’s results.  Ball State lost by 22 to Eastern Michigan, while Ohio beat Bowling Green by 35.  Otherwise this line probably would have been a touchdown or less.  So now we’re catching double-digits on the Cardinals when we shouldn’t be. 

These are two evenly-matched teams when you look at the numbers, and if anything the Cardinals have been better.  Ball State has clearly played the tougher schedule having had to face Notre Dame and Indiana out of conference.  And the Cardinals are still outgaining opponents by 31 yards per game on the season.  Ohio is actually getting outgained by 9 yards per game.  This is an Ohio defense that can’t be trusted, giving up 465 yards per game and 6.7 per play. 

The Cardinals are 56-27 ATS in their last 83 road games.  The Bobcats are 5-16 ATS int heir last 21 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.  Ball State is 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Ohio.  Take Ball State Thursday. 

20* Baylor/WVU Big 12 No-Brainer on Baylor +14 

The Baylor Bears are 4-3 this season and have their sights set on a bowl game in Matt Rhule’s second season.  Their three losses have come to Duke, Oklahoma and Texas with the latter two coming on the road. 

But they showed they could play with the big boys in that loss to Texas.  They actually had the ball inside the Texas 20-yard line with only a few seconds left and a chance to win.  They lost 17-23 as identical 14-point underdogs. 

West Virginia came into the Iowa State game way overrated as the No. 6 team in the country.  I was on Iowa State +7 as my 25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR in that game.  And the Cyclones dominated the Mountaineers 30-14.  They held Will Grier and WVU to just 7 points and 152 total yards.  Their other TD came on a blocked FG return TD. 

The reason they were so overrated is because they played such an easy early schedule.  They have still played just the 53rd-ranked schedule in the country, so their 5-1 start is fraudulent.  Baylor has already played Oklahoma and Texas, the two best teams in the Big 12, and West Virginia hasn’t played either yet. 

Baylor has had West Virginia’s number, too.  The Bears are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Their four SU losses during this stretch have come by 2, 3, 14 and 7 points.  So they haven’t lost once by more than two touchdowns.  And last year a 1-11 Baylor team only lost 36-38 at home to WVU as 10.5-point underdogs  In 2016 they only lost 21-24 as 17-point road dogs as well. 

Baylor has put up the kind of numbers that validate them being a good team.  They have outgained five of their seven opponents this season.  The only exceptions were the 114 yards they were outgained by at Oklahoma and the 61 yards at Texas.  They are averaging 475 yards per game on offense and giving up 408 yards per game on defense, outgaining opponents by 67 yards per game. 

West Virginia is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games off an upset loss to a conference opponent as a favorite.  Rhule is 26-13 ATS as an underdog in all games as a head coach.  Holgorsen is 0-6 ATS after being outgained by 225 or more yards in his previous game as the coach of West Virginia.  The Mountaineers are 7-22-1 ATS in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Baylor Thursday.

20* Troy/South Alabama Sun Belt GAME OF THE WEEK on South Alabama +13 

The South Alabama Jaguars have been through the gauntlet this season.  They’ve played four road games against Oklahoma State, Memphis, Appalachian State and Georgia Southern.  So they’ve already played the two best teams in the Sun Belt, plus Oklahoma State and Memphis out of conference.  It’s no wonder they are just 2-5. 

But South Alabama has played well at home this season.  The Jaguars are 2-1 SU & 2-0-1 ATS at home this year.  Their only loss came to a very good Louisiana Tech team from Conference USA by a final of 26-30 as 11-point underdogs.  They beat Texas State 41-31 as 10-point favorites and Alabama State 45-7 as 27-point favorites. 

I think Troy is getting too much respect from oddsmakers for what they did last season.  Quarterback Kaleb Barker had been very good, completing 73% of his passes for 1,013 yards with a 10-to-2 TD/INT ratio.  Unfortunately, he suffered a season-ending ACL injury in a 37-20 home win over Georgia State on October 4th. 

The Trojans were forced to go with backup QB Sawyer Smith against Liberty last time out, and they were promptly upset 16-22 as 10.5-point road favorites.  Smith hasn’t been nearly as good as Barker, completing just 59.3% of his passes with a 4-to-3 TD/INT ratio.  I’m shocked the Trojans are double-digit road favorites here against the Jaguars again this week with Smith starting at QB. 

This is a rivalry game in the state of Alabama, and I think South Alabama takes it a lot more seriously than Troy.  South Alabama is actually 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Jaguars won outright 19-8 as 18-point underdogs last year.  They only lost by 7 as 9.5-point home dogs in 2016.  They won 24-18 as 6-point road dogs in 2015.  And they won 27-13 as 16-point home favorites in 2014. 

The Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Trojans are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven October games.  The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet South Alabama Tuesday. 

25* MNF PARLAY OF THE YEAR on New York Giants +6/OVER 54 

Reasons the Giants Cover: 

The Giants are coming off an embarrassing 13-34 home loss to the Eagles on Thursday Night Football last week.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them now, so this is a great ‘buy low’ opportunity on them catching more points than they should be at Atlanta this week. 

It also means the Giants get extra time to prepare after playing last Thursday.  I like backing teams with extra prep time because it is a huge advantage in the NFL.  It gives their players time to heal up, and the coaching staff more time to game plan for the opponent. 

And that 13-34 loss to the Eagles was very misleading.  The Giants actually outgained the Eagles by 22 yards in that contest, so there’s no way they should have lost by 21.  In fact, the Giants are only getting obtained by 9.7 yards per game on the season.  That shows me that they are way better than their 1-5 record would indicate.  And with how bad the NFC East has been this season, they still have hope to make a run and win the division. 

The Falcons cannot be trusted to lay this kind of number right now.  They are just 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS this season.  Their two wins were somewhat fortunate as they beat a banged-up Panthers team 31-24 at home with Carolina having a chance to tie on the final drive.  Then last week they got a 57-yard field goal from Matt Bryant with just over a minute left to take a 34-29 lead over the Bucs, and then their defense held in the red zone to save the game.  They covered as 3-point favorites, and I think they are getting too much respect for that win. 

Well, Bryant ruptured his hamstring making that 57-yarder, and he has been one of the most reliable kickers in the NFL for years.  Add him to the laundry list of injuries for the Falcons now.  Also add Calvin Ridley and Mohamed Sanu, two of their three best receivers who left that Bucs game with injuries.  Both are probable to play this week but won’t be at 100%.  And Devonta Freeman remains out with a foot injury. 

The real issue for the Falcons right now is injuries to their defense.  They have lost three starters to season-ending injuries in Keanu Neal, Deion Jones and Ricardo Allen.  Plus, fellow starter Grady Jarrett has missed the last few weeks with an ankle injury and is questionable to return this week.  They simply haven’t been able to overcome these injuries, and their defense has been horrendous, giving up 32.0 points and 417.5 yards per game.  They can’t be trusted to cover this 6-point spread with that defense.  Their defense will make even Eli Manning look like a first ballot Hall of Famer. 

Reasons for the OVER: 

The OVER is 5-0 in Falcons last five games overall.  They have combined for 55, 80, 73, 58 and 63 points in their last five games, respectively.  That’s an average of 65.8 combined points per game, which is roughly 12 points more than this 54-point total.  Also, playing the OVER on Monday Night Football games when the home team has a bye next week is 39-12 in the last 51 tries. 

This is a Falcons defense that has been lit up for 37.5 points and 458.5 yardsper game over the last four weeks.  Saquon Barkley had a monster game against the Eagles last week with 229 yards (130 rushing, 99 receiving) from scrimmage.  He will have a field day against this Atlanta defense.  And the Giants aren’t short on playmakers outside with Odell Beckham and Sterling Shepard. 

The problem for the Giants on offense up to this point is that they’ve played arguably the toughest schedule in the entire NFL, and certainly the toughest schedule of opposing defenses to this point.  They’ve played the Jags, Cowboys, Texans, Saints, Panthers and Eagles.  Five of those six defenses are elite, while the Saints have been playing great on that side of the ball of late.   

This will be the worst opposing defense the Giants have faced by far, and it should lead to their biggest scoring output of the season.  And they still managed 27 points at Houston and 31 points at Carolina in their last two road games, so they have proven their offense can travel. 

Obviously I don’t want the Falcons scoring too much so that the Giants can cover the +6.  But I do think they’ll come close to their season averages of 27.8 points and 397 yards per game in this one.  I’m not naive enough to think the Giants will shut them down because the Falcons do have one of their best offenses in the league.  My best guess is that the Giants win this game in the 31-28 neighborhood.

Note: I don’t recommend betting parlays often because they are not good bets.  Make sure to bet both plays separate at the normal 25* amount.  Whether or not you parlay is up to you.  But I plan on going 2-0. Bet the Giants and the OVER.

25* MNF PARLAY OF THE YEAR on New York Giants +6/OVER 54 

Reasons the Giants Cover: 

The Giants are coming off an embarrassing 13-34 home loss to the Eagles on Thursday Night Football last week.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them now, so this is a great ‘buy low’ opportunity on them catching more points than they should be at Atlanta this week. 

It also means the Giants get extra time to prepare after playing last Thursday.  I like backing teams with extra prep time because it is a huge advantage in the NFL.  It gives their players time to heal up, and the coaching staff more time to game plan for the opponent. 

And that 13-34 loss to the Eagles was very misleading.  The Giants actually outgained the Eagles by 22 yards in that contest, so there’s no way they should have lost by 21.  In fact, the Giants are only getting obtained by 9.7 yards per game on the season.  That shows me that they are way better than their 1-5 record would indicate.  And with how bad the NFC East has been this season, they still have hope to make a run and win the division. 

The Falcons cannot be trusted to lay this kind of number right now.  They are just 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS this season.  Their two wins were somewhat fortunate as they beat a banged-up Panthers team 31-24 at home with Carolina having a chance to tie on the final drive.  Then last week they got a 57-yard field goal from Matt Bryant with just over a minute left to take a 34-29 lead over the Bucs, and then their defense held in the red zone to save the game.  They covered as 3-point favorites, and I think they are getting too much respect for that win. 

Well, Bryant ruptured his hamstring making that 57-yarder, and he has been one of the most reliable kickers in the NFL for years.  Add him to the laundry list of injuries for the Falcons now.  Also add Calvin Ridley and Mohamed Sanu, two of their three best receivers who left that Bucs game with injuries.  Both are probable to play this week but won’t be at 100%.  And Devonta Freeman remains out with a foot injury. 

The real issue for the Falcons right now is injuries to their defense.  They have lost three starters to season-ending injuries in Keanu Neal, Deion Jones and Ricardo Allen.  Plus, fellow starter Grady Jarrett has missed the last few weeks with an ankle injury and is questionable to return this week.  They simply haven’t been able to overcome these injuries, and their defense has been horrendous, giving up 32.0 points and 417.5 yards per game.  They can’t be trusted to cover this 6-point spread with that defense.  Their defense will make even Eli Manning look like a first ballot Hall of Famer. 

Reasons for the OVER: 

The OVER is 5-0 in Falcons last five games overall.  They have combined for 55, 80, 73, 58 and 63 points in their last five games, respectively.  That’s an average of 65.8 combined points per game, which is roughly 12 points more than this 54-point total.  Also, playing the OVER on Monday Night Football games when the home team has a bye next week is 39-12 in the last 51 tries. 

This is a Falcons defense that has been lit up for 37.5 points and 458.5 yardsper game over the last four weeks.  Saquon Barkley had a monster game against the Eagles last week with 229 yards (130 rushing, 99 receiving) from scrimmage.  He will have a field day against this Atlanta defense.  And the Giants aren’t short on playmakers outside with Odell Beckham and Sterling Shepard. 

The problem for the Giants on offense up to this point is that they’ve played arguably the toughest schedule in the entire NFL, and certainly the toughest schedule of opposing defenses to this point.  They’ve played the Jags, Cowboys, Texans, Saints, Panthers and Eagles.  Five of those six defenses are elite, while the Saints have been playing great on that side of the ball of late.   

This will be the worst opposing defense the Giants have faced by far, and it should lead to their biggest scoring output of the season.  And they still managed 27 points at Houston and 31 points at Carolina in their last two road games, so they have proven their offense can travel. 

Obviously I don’t want the Falcons scoring too much so that the Giants can cover the +6.  But I do think they’ll come close to their season averages of 27.8 points and 397 yards per game in this one.  I’m not naive enough to think the Giants will shut them down because the Falcons do have one of their best offenses in the league.  My best guess is that the Giants win this game in the 31-28 neighborhood.

Note: I don’t recommend betting parlays often because they are not good bets.  Make sure to bet both plays separate at the normal 25* amount.  Whether or not you parlay is up to you.  But I plan on going 2-0. Bet the Giants and the OVER.

15* Bengals/Chiefs NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Kansas City -5.5 

Clearly the oddsmakers can’t catch up to how good the Chiefs really are this season.  They are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their six games.  And now they’re laying less than a touchdown at home to a Cincinnati team that I believe is the overvalued one of these two squads. 

I went against the Bengals last week with the Steelers.  And though the Steelers scored in the final seconds to win 28-21, they dominated that game by outgaining the Bengals by 206 yards.  Keep in mind that the Chiefs went on the road and beat the Steelers 42-37, while the Bengals lost at home to the Steelers. 

Despite their 4-2 record, the Bengals have actually been outgained in four of tier six games this season.  They are getting outgained by 57 yards per game on the season.  That’s not something you normally see from a 4-2 team, and it’s clearly a sign that the Bengals are overrated. 

What’s most remarkable about this 5-1 start by the Chiefs is that they’ve played a really tough schedule.  They have played four road games and only two home games.  They are 3-1 on the road with their only loss coming on a last-second field goal 43-40 at New England.  They are 2-0 at home with two double-digit victories over the 49ers and the Jaguars. 

Both teams have bad defenses, there’s no denying that as each is giving up over 400 yards per game this season.  But the Chiefs have the better offense, and it’s not really even close.  They are scoring 35.8 points per game this season.  Patrick Mahomes has been unstoppable, and they’ve only committed five turnovers in six games.  I don’t believe Andy Dalton has what it takes to match Mahomes score for score in this one. 

The Chiefs are 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game.  The Chiefs are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games after scoring 30 points or more in their previous game.  Kansas City is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games overall and simply continues to be undervalued week after week.  They should be at least 7-point home favorites over the Bengals this week.  Take the Chiefs Sunday night. 

20* NFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on San Francisco +10 

I faded the Rams last week with the Broncos and I’m fading them again here.  The betting public loves to bet the undefeated teams like the Rams.  They are 6-0 this season, but the odds are starting to catch up with them as they are now the most overvalued team in the NFL in my opinion. 

They were 7-point home favorites against the Vikings three weeks ago and didn’t cover.  They were 7-point road favorites at the Seahawks and needed a late rally to win that game 33-31 and failed to cover.  And last week they led the Broncos in the back door in a 23-20 road win as 7-point favorites.  So they easily could have lost those three games. 

Now the Rams are being asked to go on the road against a division rival and lay double-digits here to the San Francisco 49ers.  This is my favorite play Sunday on the 49ers.  And the Rams have all kinds of injury concerns right now.  Cooper Kupp is out with a knee injury, Aqib Talib is out with an ankle injury, and Michael Brockers may not play due to a shoulder injury. 

The betting public wants nothing to do with the 1-5 49ers who lost Jimmy G to a season-ending injury in a Week 3 loss at Kansas City.  They have gone 0-3 since his injury with CJ Beathard at quarterback.  But a closer look shows that the 49ers could easily be 3-0 instead of 0-3 with Beathard, and it’s that hidden fact that provides the value here. 

Three weeks ago the 49ers only lost 27-29 at the Chargers are 10.5-point road underdogs.  They were only outgained by 4 yards in that game.  Their offense put up a respectable 364 total yards.  Two weeks ago they 49ers lost 18-28 at home to the Cardinals, but that was one of the most misleading finals of the year.  The 49ers racked up 447 total yards and outgained the Cardinals by 227 yards, but lost the turnover battle 5-0.  And last week they led the Packers 30-23 late in the 4th quarter before giving up 10 unanswered points to lose 33-30. 

Once again, the 49ers had no problem moving the football on the Packers as they amassed 401 total yards, but lost the turnover battle 3-0.  So this offense has put up an average of 25.0 points and 404 yards per game with Beathard at QB the last three weeks, numbers that would rank up there toward the tops in the NFL in terms of offensive production.  But they have lost the turnover battle 10-1 in those three games, yet still had a great chance to win all three.  If they can simply cut down on turnovers they will be just fine. 

And the Rams haven’t been great at forcing turnovers this season as they’ve forced one or fewer in four games.  This is a Rams defense that has been gashed by the Vikings, Seahawks and Broncos the last three weeks.  They are giving up 27.3 points and 392 yards per game on average in those three contests.  The 49ers should have no problem moving the ball and putting up points on them, matching them score for score. 

San Francisco has simply had Los Angeles’ number in recent years.  Indeed, the 49ers are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Their only loss was a 2-point loss at home to Jared Goff and the Rams by a final of 41-39 last year as 3-point underdogs.  And that was with Brian Hoyer at quarterback.  They are now 10-point home underdogs a year later in the rematch.  That just goes to show you the kind of line value we are getting with the 49ers here. 

The Rams are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games after gaining 200 or more rushing yards in their previous game.  Los Angeles is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games following a SU win.  The 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Rams.  The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the 49ers Sunday. 

15* Saints/Ravens Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Baltimore -2.5 

I was on the Ravens last week as my free pick when they dominated the Titans 21-0.  The shocking stat out of that game is that the Ravens recorded 11 sacks while Marcus Mariota completed just 10 passes.  It was just another feat by this Ravens defense that has been the best in the league by far. 

In fact, the Ravens haven’t allowed a touchdown in the 2nd half of a game yet this season.  They are the first team in over 80 yards who hasn’t allowed a second-half touchdown through six games.  It just shows that they are getting better as the game goes along and making all the right adjustments at halftime. 

The Ravens lead the NFL in scoring defense and total defense.  They are giving up just 12.8 points and 271 yards per game on defense.  And Joe Flacco has plenty of playmakers on offense to get the job done this year.  The Ravens rank 9th in the NFL in total offense at 393 yards per game.  The Ravens are outgaining teams by 122 yards per game this season, which is the best mark in the NFL. 

I think the Saints come into this game overvalued due to a four-game winning streak, including three straight covers against the Falcons, Giants and Redskins.  Their other win was a 3-point home victory over the Browns. 

Some bye weeks are better than others.  When a team like the Saints has momentum, they don’t want a bye week.  They will be going into their bye week fat and happy off their blowout win over the Redskins with Drew Brees setting the all-time passing record.  We saw last week the Bears coming off a blowout win over the Bucs and off their bye fall flat on their faces against the Dolphins and lose outright as 7-point favorites. 

The Saints are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 road games after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games coming in.  The Ravens are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games after allowing 200 or fewer total yards in their previous game.  Baltimore is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight games vs. at team with a winning record.  The Ravens are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Saints. 

Plays against road underdogs or PK (New Orlando) - off three or more consecutive ATS wins, in the first half of the season are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  This trend just shows that there is value going against road teams who are on an extended ATS winning streak like the Saints are.  Roll with the Ravens Sunday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Purdue +13 

Purdue has put together a great turnaround this season.  The Boilermakers lost their first three games of the season by a combined 8 points.  But they have rebounded by winning their last three games in dominant fashion. 

They beat Boston College 30-13 as 6.5-point home underdogs to get their first victory of the season.  Then they went on the road and topped Nebraska 42-28 as 3.5-point favorites.  And last week they went into Illinois and won 46-7 as 10.5-point favorites.  And that’s a much-improved Illinois squad. 

The Boilermakers are really close to being 6-0 this season.  They have outgained five of their six opponents this season.  They are outgaining foes by nearly 100 yards per game.  The offense has taken off since David Blough took over at QB for good.  Blough is completing 68.4% of his passes with a 10-to-2 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.1 yards per attempt.  They are rushing for 5.2 yards per carry as a team.  And the defense has improved dramatically over the last three weeks. 

Ohio State is way overvalued due to its No. 2 national ranking.  And that has shown in recent weeks as the Buckeyes are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They failed to cover against TCU, Penn State, Indiana and Minnesota.  I mean they only beat a terrible Minnesota team 30-14 at home as 29-point favorites last week.  And they even won the turnover battle 3-0 against the Gophers. 

The Buckeyes have played just two road games this season, and one true road game.  They failed to cover against TCU on a neutral field and only outgained the Horned Frogs by 15 yards.  They were outgained by 103 yards at Penn State and were very fortunate to win that game by a single point, 27-26.

The last time Ohio State was a road favorite of at least 13 points was at Iowa last year, and they lost that game 55-24 as 20.5-point favorites.  Purdue is 7-2 ATS as an underdog with four outright wins under Jeff Brohm.  That includes outright wins in three of their last four games as a dog with the only exception being losing on a last-second field goal against Missouri, but covering as 7-point dogs.

I think Purdue is ready to show that it can hang with a team like Ohio State.  The Buckeyes are 0-7 ATS off five or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons.  The more they win, the more overvalued they become.  They will struggle to win this game, let alone win it by two touchdowns over an improving Boilermakers squad.  Take Purdue Saturday. 

20* Oregon/Washington State FOX Saturday No-Brainer on Washington State -3 

ESPN College Game Day will be going to Pullman, Washington for the first time ever.  Tickets on the secondary market are expensive, which just shows how excited Cougar fans are for this game.  It’s safe to say that it will be perhaps the best atmosphere ever at Pullman on Saturday night when the Cougars host the Oregon Ducks. 

Washington State has been an undervalued commodity all season.  That’s evident by the fact that the Cougars are not only 5-1 SU but also a perfect 6-0 ATS this season.  Their only loss came on the road 36-39 as 4.5-point underdogs to USC.  And they led most the way in that game. 

Now the Cougars have had two full weeks to get ready for Oregon as they had a bye last week.  And the Cougars have been very tough to beat in Pullman.  In fact, they were currently in the midst of a 10-game home winning streak.  This is quickly becoming one of the more underrated home-field advantages in the country. 

Nothing has been fluky about this start for the Cougars, either.  They have outgained all six opponents the’ve faced.  And they are outgaining them by a massive 175.3 yards per game.  Their offense is hitting on all cylinders at 41.8 points and 485.5 yards per game, and their defense is underrated giving up just 23.8 points and 310.2 yards per game. 

Oregon is certainly in a bit of a letdown spot here off its 30-27 overtime victory over Washington last week.  The Huskies should have won that game as they missed a chip shot field goal at the end of regulation.  Prior to that, Oregon lost at home to Stanford in overtime and won 42-24 at Cal, but Cal gave that game away with 5 turnovers.  And that Cal win doesn’t look nearly as good now after Cal lost 37-7 at home to UCLA last week. 

Washington State simply has Oregon’s number.  I think it’s because the Cougars are used to going against a spread team in practice every day, so what Oregon does on offense doesn’t bother them.  But the Cougars are 8-0 ATS in their last eight meetings with Oregon with those eight covers coming by an average of 17 points per game.  They won the last three meetings outright with a 33-10 road win as 1.5-point favorites in 2017, a 51-33 home win as 2.5-point dogs in 2016, and a 45-38 road win as 15.5-point dogs in 2015.   

The Cougars are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games.  The Ducks are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a SU win, and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win.  Oregon is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games.  Expect a fourth straight win in this series and a ninth straight cover here for the Cougars.  Roll with Washington State Saturday. 

25* AAC GAME OF THE YEAR on Connecticut +34 

I keep coming back to the fact that South Florida is way overvalued due to being unbeaten and ranking in the Top 25.  I’ve faded them with tremendous success all season, and I’m fading them again here as massive 34-point favorites over the UConn Huskies Saturday. 

South Florida lost a ton of talent from last year’s team with just 11 returning starters this year.  They lost all of their top playmakers on offense, and this offense hasn’t been the juggernaut it once was, which is why it’s making it difficult for them to cover spreads week in and week out. 

The signs were there starting in Week 1 as USF failed to cover as 27.5-point favorites in a lackluster 34-14 home win over FCS foe Elon.  They did cover in Week 2 in a 49-38 win over Georgia Tech, but that was a misleading final.  They trailed in the 4th quarter of that game and were outgained by 176 yards.  They also trailed in the 4th quarter against Illinois the next week and won 25-19, failing to cover as 14-point favorites.  And they only beat ECU 20-13 as 20-point home favorites the next week and were outgained by 116 yards. 

Then the Bulls had their bye week and returned to barely cover against an awful UMass team as 15.5-point favorites in a 58-42 win.  And last week they needed yet another 4th quarter rally to beat Tulsa 25-24 as 10-point favorites.  They trailed by 14 and outscored the Golden Hurricane 15-0 in the final period.  That’s a 1-5 Tulsa squad.  So they’re barely beating a bunch of bad teams like Tulsa, UMass, ECU, South Florida and Elon.  That makes me believe even UConn can hang with them. 

And this is the perfect spot for a young UConn team.  They are coming off their bye week, and bye weeks are much more useful with young teams.  It gives head coach Randy Edsall two full weeks to work on fundamentals and get this young squad ready for the stretch run.  It was also key to get a bunch of guys healthy, especially on defense. 

“We were able during the off week to get some guys healed up a little bit, take care of some of those bumps and bruises and catch our break a little bit,” Edsall said. 

There’s no question the Huskies’ brutal schedule has a lot to do with their rough start.  They have already played five teams that I have power rated higher than South Florida.  Their five losses have come to UCF, Boise State, Syracuse, Cincinnati and Memphis.  I think all five of those teams would beat USF on a neutral field.  So the Huskies are battle-tested having faced the gauntlet already.  They won’t be phased by this ranked USF squad that is nowhere near as good as their 6-0 record. 

UConn has played USF very tough through the years.  They have covered the spread each of the last two years losing by 17 as 23-point home underdogs last season and losing by 15 as 20-point road underdogs in 2016.  And those were two USF teams that were much better than this year’s version.  UConn hasn’t lost to USF by more than 22 points in any of the last 15 meetings, making for a perfect 15-0 system backing the Huskies pertaining to this 34-point spread.  The underdog is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet Connecticut Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Line Mistake on Indiana +15 

Penn State is in a very bad spot mentally right now.  The Nittany Lions had not only Big Ten title aspirations, but also four-team playoff aspirations coming into the season.  And it’s like the 26-27 home loss to Ohio State zapped all of the life out of them. 

The Nittany Lions had a bye week to recover from that defeat, but they never did.  They promptly came out after the bye and were upset 17-21 at home by Michigan State as 13.5-point favorites.  All of their losses recently have come in gut-wrenching fashion.  And now they have nothing but pride to play for the rest of the way because they aren’t going to win the loaded Big Ten East with two losses.  I think we see a ‘hangover’ effect here at Indiana this week. 

I think Indiana is undervalued off its 16-42 home loss to Iowa last week.  But that is an Iowa team that is much better than it gets credit for.  And that has shown in the fact that teams that have lost to Iowa are now 4-0 ATS the following week.  Minnesota fit that role last week and nearly upset Ohio State on the road, only losing 14-30 as 29-point dogs in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate.  And Indiana only lost 26-49 at Ohio State as 27.5-point dogs in a game that was also closer than the final score, so they should be able to hang with Penn State at home this week. 

The Nittany Lions are 2-12-2 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU loss.  Penn State is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six games after scoring less than 20 points in its previous game.  The home team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  This is more of a play against Penn State due to the awful spot they’re in mentally than it is a play on Indiana.  I think the spot warrants grabbing 15 points with the Hoosiers at home here.  Take Indiana Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Navy +11.5 

At 2-4 on the season, the Navy Midshipmen need a win this week over Houston if they want any chance of making a bowl game.  They have lost three straight coming in, including gut-wrenching losses to SMU (30-31, OT) and Temple (17-24).  The blew a 17-7 lead against Temple last week and were outscored 17-0 to close out the game.  They’ll have a sour taste in their mouth, and they’ll be looking to take it out on Houston this week. 

The reason this game is so important for Navy is because the next three games are all on the road against Notre Dame, Cincinnati and UCF.  They must win this game and pull off an upset in one of those three road games to get to a bowl.  They are putting all their eggs into one basket this week to get a win, I have no doubt about that. 

Houston has been very vulnerable this season.  They trailed in the third quarter against an awful Rice team and they trailed in the 4th quarter 26-17 at home against Tulsa, which is 1-5 this season.  And even last week their 42-20 win over ECU was misleading.  The Pirates had a 27-18 first down edge over the Cougars but lost the turnover battle 4-0, which was the difference.  And because Houston covered the spread against ECU, they are overvalued here this week. 

Houston came off a bye last year to face two triple-option teams in Tulane and Navy in back-to-back weeks.  So they had practice against the option before facing Navy.  Yet Navy did hang tough in that game in a 24-14 road loss.  But now the Cougars will be facing the triple-option for the first time this season, so they won’t be nearly as prepared for Navy as they were last year. 

Navy is an impressive 46-12 SU at home under head coach Ken Niumatalolo.  The home team is 3-0 ATS in this series since both Houston and Navy became AAC members.  Houston now has to go on the road in consecutive weeks for long trips out to the East Coast, and that’s a difficult spot.  The Cougars are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite.  Navy is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games as a home underdog.   

Houston is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after having won four or five of its last six games.  The Cougars are 0-9 ATS in their last nine games on field turf.  Houston is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a SU win of more than 20 points.  The Cougars are 3-9 ATS int heir last 12 road games.  The Midshipmen are 18-8-1 ATS in their last 27 home games.  Bet Navy Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Tulane -6.5 

I’m certain we get a big effort out of the Tulane Green Wave here Saturday as they host the SMU Mustangs.  That’s why I’m willing to lay the 6.5-points at home.  They’ll be not only fresh and rested coming off their bye week, but they’ll be revenge-minded, which is a great combination. 

Last year, SMU beat Tulane 41-38 in the final game of the regular season.  That was a more crushing loss than most for the Green Wave.  They were sitting at 5-6 and one win shy of a bowl berth.  And they drove all the way down to the SMU 1-yard line in the closing seconds before the clock expired.  It’s safe to say the Green Wave have not forgotten, and they are now primed for their best performance of the season. 

Tulane has played very well at home this season.  They are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS at home this year.  They lost in overtime to Wake Forest in the opener 17-23 as 7.5-point underdogs.  They beat a good FCS opponent in Nicholls State handily 42-17 as 18-point favorites.  That’s a Nicholls State team that went on the road and beat Kansas earlier this year.  And they crushed Memphis 40-24 at home as 14.5-point underdogs, covering the spread by 30.5 points.  The other three losses all came on the road to Ohio State (7-0), Cincinnati (6-0) and UAB (5-1), three teams who are a combined 18-1 this season. 

Tulane is every bit as good as it was last season, while SMU has clearly taken a huge step back.  The Mustangs lost head coach Chad Morris to Arkansas, and Sonny Dykes just hasn’t had the same kind of effect on this team that Morris did.  SMU is 2-5 dating back to its blowout bowl loss under Dykes.  The two wins have both come at home against Navy (OT) and Houston Baptist. 

The four losses have all come by 23 points or more.  They lost 23-46 at North Texas, 12-42 at home to TCU, 20-45 at Michigan and 20-48 at UCF.  Certainly that’s a tough schedule as well, but the Mustangs weren’t even competitive.  They are getting outscored by 25.3 points per game on the road this season.  And now they’re only getting 6.5 points here against a revenge-minded Tulane squad.  It’s not enough. 

Tulane is 8-1 ATS at home over the last two seasons.  The Green Wave are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Mustangs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  SMU is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games.  Roll with Tulane Saturday.

 15* UConn/Temple AAC Early ANNIHILATOR on Temple -3 

Temple has rebounded nicely from an 0-2 start.  The Owls have gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  The biggest reason has been the emergence of QB Anthony Russo, who has led this Temple offense to an average of 34.8 points per game over the last five weeks. 

The defense also deserves some credit.  The Owls have allowed 17 points or fewer in four of their last five gams.  The only exception was their 10-point loss at Boston College as 13.5-point underdogs in the only game they’ve lost during this stretch, but they did play a great game and covered. 

I think we get a big effort from Temple here this week.  They can see the finish line as they have a bye next week, so they’ll be all in and won’t be focusing on the fact that they will be playing for an 8th straight week.  I think that counteracts the fact that Cincinnati is coming off a bye.  The Owls will be able to match Cincinnati’s intensity, especially at home. 

Bye weeks can come at bad times.  Not all bye weeks are created equal.  And for Cincinnati, I think it’s a disadvantage.  The Bearcats were rolling to a 6-0 start and are currently ranked 20th ranked team in the country.  They had a ton of momentum and didn’t want a bye.  I think they’ll be feeling fat and happy on their bye week, especially with that Top 25 ranking, and they won’t work as hard as they did to get to 6-0. 

Let’s be honest, the 6-0 start isn’t all that impressive.  Cincinnati has faced the 118th-ranked schedule in the country.  Sagarin has them as the 49th-best team in college football, not the 20th.  So the Bearcats are clearly overrated, and I agree with Temple being the favorite in this matchup because they are simply the better team. 

Cincinnati’s six wins have come against UCLA, Miami Ohio, Alabama A&M, Ohio, UConn and Tulane.  Temple is better than all six of those teams.  And Cincinnati benefited from playing UCLA in the first week of the season under a first-year head coach in Chip Kelly.  UCLA is just 1-5 but is improving as the season goes on.  They were dreadful the first three weeks of the campaign. 

Temple has clearly had Cincinnati’s number the last three years.  The Owls are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  They won 35-24 as 3-point road favorites in 2017, 34-13 as 9.5-point home favorites in 2016, and 34-26 as 6-point road underdogs in 2015.  I think they get their 4th straight win and cover in this series Saturday. 

Temple is 10-0 ATS after allowing 125 or fewer passing yards in their last game over the last three seasons.  The Owls are 19-3 ATS off an ATS win over the last three years.  Temple is 21-5 ATS in its last 26 conference games.  The Bearcats are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Owls are 11-1 ATS in weeks 5 through 9 over the last three years.  Temple is 9-1 ATS vs. good rushing teams who average 230 or more rushing yards per game over the last three years.  Bet Temple Saturday. 

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on Colorado State +23.5 

This one is all about revenge for the Colorado State Rams.  Last year, Colorado State led Boise State 52-38 with under two minutes to go.  Boise State got a touchdown with 1:41 left, then got the onside kick and forced overtime with another touchdown.  The Broncos went on to win 59-52 in the first overtime. 

That came a year after the Rams lost 23-28 on the road to Boise State as 28-point underdogs.  So the Rams have been gutted by the Broncos each of the last two seasons, and Mike Bobo and company have not forgotten.  They will be upset-minded 23.5-point underdogs here at Boise State Friday night, and I think they’ll give Boise State more of a game than most are expecting. 

Colorado State hasn’t been as poor as its 3-4 record would suggest.  The Rams have rallied the troops after a 1-4 start by winning their last two games at San Jose State and at home to New Mexico.  And they also beat Arkansas earlier this year as 14-point underdogs.  Their 10-48 loss to Florida was very misleading as the Rams were only outgained by 28 yards in that contest, but special teams miscues and turnovers turned it into a blowout.  So this team is clearly battle-tested. 

Boise State is way overrated, and that has shown since season-opening wins over Troy and UConn.  The Broncos are just 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games.  They lost 21-44 at Oklahoma State, beat a bad Wyoming team 34-14, were upset by San Diego State 13-19 as 13-point underdogs, and barely escaped with a 31-27 win at Nevada as 14-point favorites. 

The Blue Turf is not the home-field advantage that it used to be.  The Broncos are just 4-14 ATS in their last 18 home games.  The Rams have been great in this big underdog role as they are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Colorado State Friday.

20* Stanford/ASU Pac-12 No-Brainer on UNDER 57.5 

Both Stanford and Arizona State are coming off bye weeks.  That means they’ve had nearly two weeks to prepare for one another.  And I think that extra preparation favors the defenses more than the offenses.  So I like the UNDER here in this Pac-12 matchup. 

I think this number is inflated because Stanford’s defense fell apart over their last three games, and they went over the total in all three.  But they played three great offenses in Oregon, Notre Dame and Utah with with first two on the road.  And they were simply out of gas by the time they faced Utah, so this bye week came at the right time. 

But Arizona State’s offense isn’t going to scare Stanford’s defense.  This is an ASU offense that has put up 21 or fewer points in the four games they’ve played that weren’t against UTSA and Oregon State.  They only scored 16 against Michigan State, 21 against San Diego State, 20 against Washington and 21 against Colorado.  And I think Stanford is a similar opponent to Michigan State, and ASU beat MSU 16-13 at home. 

But Arizona State’s defense has played admirably this season.  The Sun Devils haven’t allowed more than 28 points in any game this season, and one of those two teams is going to have to top 28 points for this game to go OVER.  I don’t see either team surpassing 28.  The Sun Devils are allowing 21.2 points and 385 yards per game this season.  The Cardinal are allowing 22.0 points per game this year. 

Stanford’s offense has been nothing special, averaging just 25.7 points per game this season.  The Cardinal just don’t have a very good offensive line this year.  In fact, it’s the worst that I can remember.  They are averaging just 86 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry this season.  It doesn’t help that Bryce Love has been banged up, and he remains hampered by an ankle injury this week. 

The UNDER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings.  Stanford and ASU have combined for 58 or fewer points in eight of those nine meetings.  They are averaging just 48.4 combined points per game in those nine meetings, which is nearly 10 points less than tonight’s posted total of 57.5.  I think we are getting great value here on this UNDER. 

The UNDER is 54-26-1 in Stanford’s last 81 games following an ATS loss.  The UNDER is 44-20 in Stanford’s last 64 games in October.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings at Arizona State.  Stanford is 11-1 UNDER in its last 12 games off two straight losses by 17 points or more.  The UNDER is 19-3 in Cardinal’s last 22 games after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday. 

15* Broncos/Cardinals Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Denver -1 

John Elway has called out the Broncos.  From players to coaches, everyone is on the hot seat now.  And I think that the Broncos will be playing with more of a sense of urgency than most Thursday night road teams would be.  That’s why I’m willing to lay the points with them on the road here.  It also helps that they’re playing arguably the worst team in the NFL in the Arizona Cardinals. 

“At some point in time, we have to play better football.  We’re still making the mistakes we shouldn’t make to beat good football teams like the Rams,” Elway told Orange and Blue 760 radio. “It’s disappointing, that’s for sure. Hopefully we can take a mentality into that Thursday night game where we’re fighting for our lives.” 

Denver is in the midst of a four-game losing streak.  But they were underdogs in all four games, so it’s not a surprise.  They lost on the road to the Ravens and Jets, and they lost at home to the Chiefs and Rams.  But the Chiefs and Rams are arguably the two best teams in the NFL, and they nearly beat both.  They blew a 10-point fourth quarter lead to the Chiefs to lost 23-27, and they gave the Rams all they wanted in a 20-23 defeat. 

Now the Broncos get their easiest game of the season to this point here against the Cardinals.  This is a Cardinals team that ranks dead last in scoring offense at 13.7 points per game and dead last in total offense at 220.5 yards per game. 

Defensively, the Cardinals haven’t been much better, giving up 394.3 yards per game this season.  So they are getting outgained by a ridiculous 174 yards per game this season, which is far and away the worst mark in the NFL, which is why I would argue that they are the worst team in the league. 

The Cardinals are 1-5 this season, and their only win this year came at home 28-18 over the 49ers.  But that was perhaps the most misleading score of the entire season.  The 49ers outgained the Cardinals by 227 yards in that game and should have won.  But the Cardinals won the turnover battle 5-0, which was the difference. 

Plays on road teams (Denver) with a poor defense that allows 6.0 or more yards per play, after allowing 400 or more total yards in three consecutive games are 32-12 (72.7%) ATS since 1983.  The Broncos have gone 8-1 SU in their last nine meetings with the Cardinals.  Denver is also 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  They just have to win the game to cover this small number, and they should do just that.  Take the Broncos Thursday. 

20* 49ers/Packers MNF TOTAL OF THE MONTH on OVER 46 

I think this total is lower than it should be Monday night between the Packers and 49ers.  And a big reason for that is because the perception is that both of these offenses struggled in their last games, but the reality is that both of them moved the football at will, it just didn’t show up on the scoreboard. 

The Packers had 521 total yards against the Lions last week, including 423 passing, yet only managed 23 points.  Well a big reason for that was they had to settle for a bunch of field goals, and Mason Crosby missed three field goals and an extra point, which is basically 10 points off the board that they would have had otherwise. 

For the 49ers, they had 447 total yards against the Cardinals, including 300 passing, but only got 18 points out of it.  Their demise were the five turnovers, including two that were returned for touchdowns.  I have to think that both offenses will fare better on the scoreboard this week if they continue moving the ball like they did last week, especially against these two weak defenses. 

Both teams have all kinds of injuries on defense right now.  The Packers lost DE Muhammad Wilkerson to a season-ending injury.  Starting CB Devon House is out, as is starting ILB Jake Ryan.  Fellow OLB Nick Perry is questionable, and CB’s Breshaud Breeland, Kevin King and Jaire Alexander is questionable.  For the 49ers, they could be without starting FS Jimmie Ward, who is questionable with a hamstring injury. 

The 49ers are already giving up 29.2 points per game this season.  The Packers should have no problem moving the football and scoring points on them.  This is an elite Packers offense that is averaging 401 yards per game and 6.1 per play against teams that only allow 338 yards per game.  They have played a tough schedule of opposing defenses, and the 49ers may have the worst defense that they’ve faced yet. 

I know Jimmy G is out with a season-ending injury, but the 49ers have had no problem moving the ball with CJ Beathard at quarterback.  He led the 49ers to 27 points and 364 total yards against the Chargers in his first start two weeks ago.  Then he led them to 447 total yards against a good Arizona defense last week.  I expect the Packers to get to 30 and the 49ers to get to at least 20 in this game, which would easily take care of this 46-point total. 

The OVER is 10-2 in Packers last 12 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The OVER is 21-5 in Packers last 26 vs. NFC opponents.  The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.  Green Bay is 9-1 OVER vs. bad defensive teams that give up 24 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  The OVER is 7-0 in 49ers last seven games on grass.  The OVER is 4-0 in 49ers last four games overall.  These last three trends combine for a 20-1 system backing the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

25* NBC Sunday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on New England Patriots -3 

The Patriots are actually undervalued right now because they got off to a poor start this season.  They opened 1-2 with ugly road losses to Jacksonville and Detroit.  But they’ve gotten healthier these last few weeks, and it has shown with back-to-back wins and covered at home against Miami (38-7) as 6.5-point favorites and Indianapolis (38-24) as 10.5-point favorites. 

Now the Patriots have extra rest after beating the Colts last Thursday in what was a 24-3 game at the half as they coasted to victory after intermission.  And their offense is much more dynamic now.  Josh Gordon has a few games under his belt now and showed what he could bring to this team with a huge TD catch in double-coverage against the Colts.  And Julian Edelman returned from a four-game suspension last week, catching seven balls for 57 yards.  This now has the potential to be one of the best offenses in the NFL moving forward with the likes of Edelman, Gronk, Gordon, Chris Hogan, Sony Michel and James White leading the way. 

The Chiefs clearly come into this game overvalued now after opening the season 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS.  They are getting a ton of respect from oddsmakers here as only 3-point road underdogs to the Patriots.  I think New England’s home field is worth more than 3 points, and so this line suggests that Kansas City is actually the better team.  I beg to differ, and I think that shows on the field Sunday night. 

No question the Chiefs have a great offense that is hitting on all cylinders.  But I don’t think their offense is any more dynamic than New England’s currently.  And there’s no doubt that the Patriots have the better defense, giving up 21.6 points and 366 yards per game.  The Chiefs are giving up 25.8 points and 462 yards per game, ranking dead last in the NFL in total defense.  You can’t rank last in total defense and be considered the best team in the NFL.  It will catch up with them sooner rather than later, starting this week. 

Last week’s 30-14 win over Jacksonville was a misleading final.  The Jaguars racked up 502 total yards on the Chiefs, including 401 passing.  But they committed five turnovers, including one that was returned for a touchdown, and several others that led to scores.  Patrick Mahomes actually threw his first two interceptions of the season without a touchdown in that contest.  The Chiefs were very fortunate to win as Blake Bortles simply gave the game away.  Tom Brady won’t make those same mistakes, and he will score almost every time he touches the football against this putrid Kansas City defense. 

Keep in mind the Patriots also want revenge from a 42-27 home loss to the Chiefs in their season opener last year.  They were embarrassed in that game and have not forgotten.  And if anyone can scheme up a game plan to stop Patrick Mahomes, especially with extra time to prepare, it’s certainly Bill Belichick. 

New England is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games as a home favorite of 7 points or less, winning by 12.4 points per game on average.  The Patriots are 7-0 ATS vs. excellent offensive teams that are averaging 6 or more yards per play over the last three seasons.  New England is 7-0 ATS vs. poor pass defenses that allow 235 or more yards per game over the last two seasons.  These three trends combine for a 23-1 system backing New England.  Bet the Patriots Sunday night. 

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Denver Broncos +7 

The Los Angeles Rams are 5-0 and the talk of the league right now.  It seems as though everyone is already trying to crown them Super Bowl champs.  But with that 5-0 start and all the hype comes expectations from oddsmakers that are tough for them to live up to. 

The Rams were laying 7 points to the Vikings two weeks ago and won by 7.  Then they were asked to lay 7 points on the road to the Seahawks last week and needed a last-second field goal to win 33-31.  And now they’re once again being asked to lay 7 points on the road to the Denver Broncos this week. 

The Rams have mounting injury problems right now.  Both Cooper Kupp and Brandin Cooks were knocked out of that Seattle game with concussions and did not return in the second half.  Tight end Tyler Higbee also suffered an injury that forced him out of action.  All three players are questionable, leaving this offense lacking playmakers heading into this game with the Broncos. 

Defensively, the Rams are missing cornerback Aqib Talib, and fellow corner Marcus Peters is playing through injury and was torched time and time again last week.  This is a Rams defense that has not lived up to expectations, giving up a combined 62 points to the Vikings and Seahawks the last two weeks. 

The Broncos come in hungry for a victory Sunday.  They have lost three in a row, though two of those were on the road, and the other was at home to the unbeaten Chiefs.  They are a much better home team, going 2-1 with wins over the Seahawks and Raiders.  And they gave the Chiefs their toughest test of the season, actually leading by double-digits in the 4th quarter before losing 23-27.  They were driving with a chance to win in the closing seconds. 

Denver’s offense certainly has what it takes to move the ball and score points against this Rams’ defense. The Broncos rank 12th in the league in total offense at 393.4 yards per game.  They will be able to run the football on the Rams just like the Seahawks did last week, rushing for 190 yards.  The Rams are giving up 5.0 yards per carry this season.  The Broncos are averaging 5.6 yards per carry as their running game has been the strength.  Look for them to try and control the clock with their running game and keep Jared Goff off the field. 

With the weather report, there’s no question the running game will be huge in this matchup.  On Sunday there is a 90% chance of snow with a high of 28 degrees.  That will help level the playing field here for the Broncos.  The Rams are a warm-weather team and are clearly not used to those kinds of conditions.  The Broncos are used to them, and that will be a huge advantage for them in this one. 

Denver is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 home games vs. excellent teams that are outscoring opponents by 10-plus points per game.  The Broncos are simply a different animal at home, and they’ll be fired up for this one with the undefeated Rams coming to town.  The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Broncos Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 

The Pittsburgh Steelers sit at 2-2-1 on the season.  They are 1.5 games behind the 4-1 Cincinnati Bengals.  All of a sudden this is a much bigger game for the Steelers than it is for the Bengals.  And because of that, among many other reasons, I think the Steelers will win this game outright simply because they need it more. 

The Steelers simply own the Bengals.  They are 6-0 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  In fact, the Steelers are 8-1 in their last nine trips to Cincinnati.  And Big Ben loves playing in his home state of Ohio.  Big Ben is 25-4-1 in 30 career games in Ohio. 

Back in the summer, the Steelers were -4 against the Bengals in this game.  So from what we’ve seen through only five games, oddsmakers have made a 6.5-point adjustment off that number.  I think there’s a ton of value here with the Steelers this week as they are the better team in this matchup. 

The Bengals are getting respect because they are 4-1.  However, they could easily be 0-5 instead.  They got a late defensive touchdown against the Colts in Week 1 to seal that game.  The only game they played well from the start was their Thursday night home win over the Ravens, but playing on Thursday night at home is a huge advantage as those teams are 5-0 this season. 

The Bengals lost 21-31 on the road to the Panthers in Week 3.  They scored on a last-second play to beat the Falcons 37-36, which was a Falcons team that was extremely banged up.  And it’s worth noting the Steelers beat the Falcons 41-17 last week.  And then last week the Bengals erased a 17-0 deficit at home to the Dolphins to win 27-17 thanks to a pair of late defensive touchdowns. 

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Cincinnati) - with a poor first half defense that is allowing 14 or more points per game, after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 33-11 (75%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Steelers are 24-9-2 ATS in their last 35 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Steelers are 16-4-2 ATS in their last 22 meetings in Cincinnati. 

This is a Bengals defense that is allowing 26.0 points and 394.8 yards per game this season.  Again, they’re very fortunate to be 4-1 with that defense.  The Steelers, who are averaging 28.6 points and 405 yards per game, will light them up this week.  Roll with the Steelers Sunday. 

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Virginia +7 

Bronco Mendenhall has this Virginia Cavaliers program on the rise in his third season.  They are off to a 3-2 start this year with their only losses coming on the road to Indiana (16-20) and NC State (21-35).  They also beat Ohio 45-31 on a neutral field, and dominated their two home games with a 42-13 win over Richmond as 14.5-point favorites and a 27-3 thumping of Louisville as 4.5-point favorites. 

Now the Cavaliers return home this week fresh off a bye, so they will be rested and ready to go.  And they have made this a night game in Charlottesville, so the atmosphere will be electric with nationally ranked Miami coming to town.  The Cavaliers are looking for that signature win under Mendenhall, and I think they have a great chance to get it given the situation Saturday night off the bye. 

I think Miami is massively overrated right now.  They lost their toughest game 17-33 to LSU in what was a 33-3 game until the Hurricanes tacked on two meaningless touchdowns late.  Since then, their five wins have come against suspect competition in Savannah State, Toledo, FIU, UNC and Florida State.  And they’ve had some lackluster efforts in there. 

Miami only beat Florida International 31-17 at home as 26-point favorites three weeks ago.  Then two weeks ago their 47-10 win over UNC was very misleading.  They only outgained UNC by 25 yards in that contest and were the beneficiaries of 6 turnovers, 3 that were returned for touchdowns.  And last week against Florida State they trailed 27-7 before rallying to win 28-27 as 14-point favorites. 

I think that comeback will certainly have taken a lot out of the Hurricanes emotionally and physically.  They are now in line for a hangover effect here against Virginia.  It’s never easy playing the next week off a win against one of your biggest rivals, and the nature of the way they won that game will make it even more difficult this week.  Virginia will simply want this game more than Miami. 

Virginia also wants revenge from blowing a 28-14 lead in the 3rd quarter on the road at Miami last season.  The Hurricanes scored the final 30 points in that game to win 44-28, but failed to cover the 20.5-point spread.  Virginia actually outgained Miami 439 to 358 in that contest, or by 81 total yards.  I think they’ll win the box score and the game this time around. 

Virginia has a great defense that is giving up just 20.4 points per game and 325 total yards per game this season.  Defense has always been a staple with Mendenhall-coached teams.  But the reason the Cavaliers are so improved this season is that the offense is so much better.  The Cavaliers are averaging 30.2 points and 418 yards per game this season.  QB Bryce Perkins is completing 63.5% of his passes, averaging 8.2 yards per attempt, and has an 11-to-4 TD/INT ratio.  He is a dual-threat who has also rushed for 341 yards and three scores this year. 

The Hurricanes are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cavaliers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.  Virginia is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games following a bye week.  The underdog is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Don’t be surprised if the Cavaliers win this game outright.  Roll with Virginia Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on California -7 

This feels like a get right game for the Cal Golden Bears.  They have lost the last two weeks to Oregon and Arizona.  They gave both those games away by committing a combined 9 turnovers.  I can only think that the emphasis all week will be taking care of the football, because if they do they should roll UCLA at home Saturday night. 

The 17-24 loss at Arizona last week was particularly misleading.  Cal outgained Arizona by 211 total yards.  But the Wildcats got two defensive touchdowns to swing the game in their favor.  This elite Cal defense held Arizona to just 10 points and 265 total yards.  They will shut down a poor UCLA offense this week. 

UCLA is 0-5 this season.  The Bruins have played a tough schedule, no question, but they’re also not very good.  And they’ve rarely been competitive as all five of their losses have come by 7 points or more.  They trailed by 17 to Washington last week but made it interesting in the end, losing 24-31.  I think the fact that they kept the final score close is earning them too much respect now from oddsmakers this week.  And it was a deflating loss that they will probably suffer a hangover from. 

Turnovers shouldn’t be a problem for Cal against UCLA.  After all, the Bruins have only forced five turnovers in five games this season.  They aren’t big on takeaways.  And I just don’t know how UCLA is going to score against Cal’s defense, which is giving up just 331 yards per game and 4.9 per play.  UCLA’s offense is only averaging 18.4 points, 334 yards per game and 5.1 per play this season. 

The last time at Cal in 2016 the Bears rolled to a 36-10 victory as 3-point underdogs.  They outgained the Bruins 496 to 260 in that contest.  I think we see a similar beat down here, especially with the Bears coming off two straight losses and wanting revenge from a 27-30 road loss at UCLA last year. 

The Bruins are 14-34 ATS in their last 48 October road games.  UCLA is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games following an ATS win.  UCLA is 2-7 ATS in its last nine road games.  The Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.  Cal is 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight home games.  The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a losing record.  The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The Bears are 5-0 ATS int heir last five home meetings with the Bruins.  Bet Cal Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on East Carolina +16 

The Houston Cougars have been an overvalued commodity this season.  They should not be laying 16 points on the road to an improved East Carolina squad that is fully capable of making a game out of this based off everything I’ve seen this season. 

Houston opened the season with a 45-27 win at Rice as 25-point favorites.  But the Cougars actually trailed in that game 27-17 midway through the second quarter before scoring the final 28 points.  Their win over Arizona doesn’t look that impressive now, and they lost 49-63 at Texas Tech.  A win over Texas Southern is nothing to brag about.  And last week they actually trailed 26-17 in the 4th quarter at home to Tulsa before scoring the final 24 points to win 41-26 as 17-point favorites.  Tulsa gave them two free touchdowns on turnovers late to turn a near-upset into a semi-blowout. 

East Carolina has beaten UNC 41-29 as 15-point underdogs, while also going on the road and giving South Florida all they could handle in a 13-20 loss as 19-point underdogs.  In fact, ECU actually outgained each of its first four opponents by 113 or more yards.  That’s why I’m saying their 6-49 loss at Temple last week was clearly the aberration, not the norm for this team.  And that blowout loss clearly has them undervalued heading into this matchup with Houston, catching more points than they should be. 

Last year, Houston won 52-27 at home over East Carolina as 24.5-point favorites, covering by a half a point.  But that was a misleading final as well.  ECU actually outgained Houston 504 to 472 in that contest.  But the Pirates lost the turnover battle 3-0.  And there’s no question the Pirates are a lot better than they were a year ago, while the Cougars aren’t nearly as good, especially with their leaky defense that is giving up 29.6 points and 488 yards per game this season.  ECU is only allowing 340 yards per game this year. 

Houston is 0-6 ATS off a home win over the last two seasons.  The Cougars are 1-8 ATS in road games after the first month of the season over the last three seasons.  Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games.  The Cougars are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 conference games.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take East Carolina Saturday. 

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State +7 

The West Virginia Mountaineers are way overrated right now.  They are off to a 5-0 start and currently ranked as the No. 6 team in the country.  With that ranking comes respect from oddsmakers that they simply cannot live up to.  They should not be laying a touchdown on the road to Iowa State this week. 

For starters, WVU has played a soft schedule.  The Mountaineers have played the 70th-ranked schedule in the country.  Their five wins have come against Tennessee, Youngstown State, Kansas State, Texas Tech and Kansas.  They have played just one true road game this season, which was their 42-34 win at Texas Tech in which they won the turnover battler 3-0 that was the difference. 

After covering the spread in each of their first four games, the Mountaineers came up short last week in a lackluster 38-22 home win over Kansas as 27.5-point favorites.  Now they will be facing their stiffest test of the season on the road against a Cyclones team that just thrives in these big games against nationally ranked opponents. 

Iowa State is undervalued after a 2-3 start to the season.  But the Cyclones have played the 2nd-toughest schedule in the entire country.  Despite this, they’ve had a chance to win all five games.  They only lost by 10 at Iowa, by 10 to Oklahoma and by 3 to TCU.  They went on the road and beat Oklahoma State 48-42 last week as 10-point underdogs.  They have been a dog in four of five games thus far, so to get through at 2-3 with a chance to win every game is actually a nice accomplishment. 

And now the Cyclones will be battle-tested here and not phased with No. 6 WVU coming to town.  After all, they beat two Top 10 opponents last season.  They beat Oklahoma on the road and TCU at home last year.  Matt Campbell is a tremendous coach who thrives in the underdog role.  Campbell is 16-5 ATS as an underdog in his last 21 games as the coach of Iowa State. 

Iowa State has a very good defense that is giving up just 350 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play against opponents that average 438 yards per game and 6.4 per play, holding them to 88 yards and 1.3 yards per play less than their season averages.  This is by far the best defense that WVU will have faced this season. 

After struggling a little on offense the first four games, the Cyclones made the switch at quarterback to freshman Brock Purdy against Oklahoma State.  And boy did it pay off.  Purdy led the Cyclones to 48 points in the upset of the Cowboys last week while completing several beautiful deep balls.  Purdy finished 18-of-23 passing for 318 yards with four touchdowns and one interception, while also rushing for 84 yards and a score.  It was the best freshman QB debut in Cyclone history, and the future is bright for this program with him at the helm. 

The Cyclones are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. a team with a winning record.  Iowa State is 21-6-1 ATS in its last 28 games overall.  The Cyclones are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.  Iowa State is 9-1 ATS vs. excellent passing teams that average 8.5 or more yards per attempt over the last three seasons.  Dana Holgorsen is 0-8 ATS after covering the spread in three of his last four games as the coach of West Virginia.  He has never covered in this spot.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Illinois -3.5 

The Northern Illinois Huskies headed into MAC play grossly undervalued.  That’s because they went 0-3 in non-conference play against a brutal schedule.  They lost to the likes of Iowa, Utah and Florida State with two of those games on the road.  And I think they continue to be undervalued here as only 3.5-point home favorites over Ohio. 

It’s no surprise that NIU is 3-0 in MAC play this season because they are still one of the best teams in this conference.  They beat Central Michigan 24-16 at home before going not he road and topping Eastern Michigan 26-23 and Ball State 24-16.  And now they return home here against an Ohio team that has been getting way too much respect from oddsmakers. 

Ohio is 3-2, but it has been outgained in four of its five games this season.  The most concerning game was the 38-32 home victory over Howard as 30.5-point favorites in the opener.  The Bobcats were outgained by 220 yards in that game and should have lost.  They were also outgained by 188 yards in their 31-45 loss at Virginia.  And last week they only beat Kent State 27-26 as 11-point favorites and were outgained by 58 yards. 

The problem with backing Ohio is that they play no defense.  They are giving up 35.8 points, 509 yards per game and 7.2 yards per play this season against opponents that only average 435 yards per game and 5.8 per play.  They are allowing 74 yards and 1.4 yards per play more than their opponents average this season.  They simply cannot stop anyone, and even NIU is in line for its biggest offensive output of the season this week. 

Conversely, Northern Illinois has probably the best defense in the MAC.  The Huskies are only giving up 23.7 points, 356 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play this season.  That’s despite playing three elite Power 5 programs in Iowa, Utah and FSU already.  And they’ve also shut down two very good MAC offenses in EMU and Ball State while also holding a bad CMU offense to 16 points. 

Another concern for Ohio is that starting QB Nathan Rourke is banged up and battling a shoulder injury right now, leaving his status up in the air for this game.  He is the heart and soul of this team, averaging 8.7 has per pass attempt and 7.8 per rush attempt while rushing for 391 yards and three scores this season.  Early indications are that he will likely suit up, but he clearly won’t be 100%.  If he doesn’t play then this is an absolute certainty that NIU wins and covers. 

Ohio is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games vs. good rushing defenses that allow 3.25 or fewer yards per carry.  Northern Illinois is 10-2 ATS vs. poor passing defenses that allow 58% completions or worse over the last three seasons.  The Bobcats are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  The Huskies are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 after accumulating more than 200 rushing yards in their previous game.  Roll with Northern Illinois Saturday. 

15* Georgia/LSU SEC ANNIHILATOR on LSU +7.5 

The LSU Tigers just can’t get any love this season.  They have opened 5-1 with wins over the likes of Miami, at Auburn and home against Ole Miss.  They were up 33-3 on Miami on a neutral, they outgained Auburn by 42 yards in a 22-21 road win at 10-point dogs, and they crushed Ole Miss 45-16 as 11.5-point home favorites. 

Last week’s 19-27 loss to Florida has everyone writing off LSU.  I’m not one of those people.  I was on Florida in that game and felt it was a great spot for the Gators, and I’m on record saying that Florida was an SEC title contender coming into the season.  And that game was up for grabs in the final seconds before the Gators got a defensive touchdown.  Florida only outgained LSU by 19 yards. 

There’s no question LSU has played the more more difficult schedule between these teams.  In fact, the Tigers have played the 13th-toughest schedule this season.  Georgia has played just the 62nd-toughest.  I think the Bulldogs are way overvalued right now due to their No. 2 ranking and their 6-0 start.  Their six wins have come against Austin Peay, South Carolina, Middle Tennessee, Missouri, Tennessee and Vanderbilt. 

I would have to say their toughest game was at Missouri.  And they only won 43-29 as 14-point favorites.  Georgia only outgained Missouri by 52 yards in that contest.  I have no doubt that this road game at LSU is the most difficult game thus far on their schedule.  And there’s nothing like the home-field advantage the Tigers have in Death Valley. 

LSU is never more than a touchdown home underdog due to their home-field advantage.  The only times they’ve been priced in this range in the past decade was against Tim Tebow’s Florida team and two times against Alabama.  No question Georgia is a great team, but they are not good enough to be laying more than a touchdown on the road here to the Tigers in the Bayou. 

LSU is a perfect 9-0 ATS vs. good passing teams who average 8 or more yards per attempt over the last three seasons.  It is actually winning by 18.9 points per game in this spot and holding those teams to just 16.0 points per game.  The Tigers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine conference games.  Bet LSU Saturday. 

20* Washington/Oregon Pac-12 No-Brainer on Oregon +3.5 

The Oregon Ducks should be 5-0 this season.  They blew a 24-7 lead in the second half against Stanford a few weeks ago and eventually lost in overtime.  Several fluky things went against them, and they simply could have kneeled on the ball at the end and won.  Instead, they fumbled and Stanford scored to tie it, and the rest was history. 

Almost everyone was on California the next week against Oregon, thinking the Ducks wouldn’t be able to recover from that loss.  Instead, the Ducks showed a lot of heart, throttling California 42-24 on the road.  It was a Cal team that was coming off a bye, so it was a great performance for the Ducks. 

Now the Ducks have had a bye week to get ready for a Washington team that was in a dog fight last week in a 31-24 win over UCLA as 21-point favorites.  They only outgained the Bruins by 40 yards in that contest, and that’s a UCLA team that is currently 0-5.  The Huskies only beat Arizona State by 7 at home as 18-point favorites earlier this year.  And they lost at Auburn, and that loss looks a lot worse now after Auburn went on to lose to LSU at home and Mississippi State on the road. 

I think the Huskies are starting to run out of gas a little because they will be playing for a 7th consecutive week, and that started to show in the second half last week against UCLA.  Now the Ducks will put their fatigue to the test with their spread-option, up-tempo offense.  QB Justin Herbert is leading an Oregon offense that is putting up 46 points and 504 yards per game this season. 

The Ducks have been an elite team with a healthy Herbert under center.  Jake Browning is one of the most overrated quarterbacks in the country.  He leads a Washington offense that is averaging just 29 points pre game this season.  Running back Myles Gaskins is banged up, and Browning is lacking weapons on the outside.  Clearly Oregon has the supreme offense in this matchup. 

Washington’s defense is very good, there’s no question about it, but they did give up 24 points and 422 total yards to a very bad UCLA offense last week.  Again, it was a sign that they are starting to show some fatigue.  I think Oregon coming off a bye this week is a huge advantage, and it’s going to be a great atmosphere at Autzen Stadium with essentially the Pac-12 North title on the line in this matchup. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Oregon) - in a game involving two teams who are outgaining opponents by 100-plus yards per game, after gaining 475 or more total yards in two consecutive games are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take Oregon Saturday. 

15* USF/Tulsa AAC ANNIHILATOR on Tulsa +7.5 

It’s time to ‘buy low’ on Tulsa and ‘sell high’ on South Florida in this AAC showdown Friday night.  I like the Golden Hurricane catching more than a touchdown at home to the Bulls in a game that they have an excellent chance to win outright. 

Tulsa is better than its 1-4 record would indicate.  The Golden Hurricane are actually outgaining their opponents by 17 yards per game this season despite that record, and they have an improved defense that is allowing just 381 yards per game.  The problem with them has been turnovers as they’ve committed 16 already through five games and it will be a point of emphasis this week. 

South Florida is 5-0, but not nearly as good as its record would indicate.  The Bulls are only outgaining their opponents by 54 yards per game.  And they’ve played a much easier schedule than Tulsa as their five wins have come against Elon, Georgia Tech, Illinois, ECU and UMass.  They only beat Illinois by 6 and ECU by 7, they were outgained by Georgia Tech by 176 yards and by ECU by 116 yards.  And they needed a big 4th quarter comeback to beat Illinois. 

Tulsa’s four losses have come to Texas, Arkansas State, Temple and Houston.  They were competitive in all four of those games.  They only lost by 7 to Texas and by 9 to Arkansas State.  They outgained Temple by 103 yards despite losing by 14 thanks to a pair of defensive touchdowns.  And they led Houston on the road last week 26-17 in the 4th quarter before giving up 24 unanswered points in the final 12 minutes. 

Tulsa knows that if it is going to challenge for a bowl game, it starts with a win this week against South Florida.  And the Golden Hurricane have the rest advantage after playing last Thursday, so they have had seven days to get ready for this game.  USF played on Saturday in a 58-42 shootout at UMass and will be the more fatigued team here having just five days to get ready for Tulsa. 

Last year, Tulsa only lost 20-27 at South Florida as 23.5-point underdogs.  And that was a much better USF team that lost a lot from last year.  And Tulsa is certainly better this season than last with 15 returning starters from a squad that went 2-10.  The Golden Hurricane will be out for revenge at home this time around, and they’ll be excited welcoming a Top 25 team in a nationally televised Friday night game. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Tulsa) - off two consecutive losses by 10 points or more to conference opponents, in October games are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Golden Hurricane are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.  They just come up big time and time again against teams they appear overmatched by.  Roll with Tulsa Friday. 

15* Eagles/Giants NFC East Total DOMINATOR on OVER 43.5 

Both Philadelphia and New York have shown signs of life offensively in recent weeks.  I think this is a pretty low total at 43.5 tonight for an NFL game that features two offenses with plenty of playmakers.  Look for this game to sail OVER the total Thursday night. 

The Eagles now have three games with Carson Wentz at quarterback.  They have been moving the football just fine with Wentz and should continue to do so against the Giants this week.  They had 382 yards against the Colts, 432 against the Titans and 364 against the Vikings the last three weeks, respectively.  And they have topped 20 points in all three games. 

The Giants got off to a rough start offensively this season against two great defenses in Jacksonvilleand Dallas.  But they have been much sharper the last three weeks.  They scored 27 with 379 total yards against Houston in Week 3.  And last week they scored 31 with 432 total yards against Carolina. 

The biggest problem for the Giants has been their defense, which has given up at least 20 points in every game, including 33 each the last two weeks to the Saints and Panthers.  And it’s not like the Eagles have been great defensively as they have given up 23, 26, and 27 points in three of their last four games coming in. 

The Giants can’t run the ball, but that’s not a problem because the Eagles can’t stop the pass, giving up 277 yards per game.  The Eagles are good against the run, so the Giants won’t even test it that much.  This is a game that will be played mostly through the air, especially with the injuries the Eagles have at running back.  That will lead to more clock stoppages and ultimately more points. 

The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings.  The Giants and Eagles have combined for 63, 51, 43, 51 and 65 points in their last five meetings, respectively.  That’s an average of 54.6 combined points per game, which is roughly 11 points per game more than this 43.5-point total.  There’s clearly value with the OVER here tonight.  Take the OVER in this game Thursday. 

20* Texas Tech/TCU Big 12 No-Brainer on UNDER 62 

Both Texas Tech and TCU have quarterback injuries heading into this one that makes me like the UNDER quite a bit.  Tech starter Alan Bowman suffered a collapsed lung last game and is highly questionable, and his backed McLane Carter is also questionable with an ankle injury.  TCU starter Shawn Robinson is battling a shoulder injury, and even though he’s probable he may not start Thursday. 

Regardless, this has been an UNDER series the past two years.  TCU won 27-24 (OT) in 2016 for 51 combined points, but they scored 17 in overtime so there were just 34 combined points at the end of regulation.  And then last year TCU won 27-3 for 30 combined points.  It’s clear to me that this 62-point total has been set way too high Thursday night. 

I also like the fact that both teams come in off bye weeks and on extra rest.  That extra time to prepare certainly favors the defenses more than the offenses.  There will be no element of surprise for these two teams because they’ll know each other so well.  And Texas Tech has an improved defense this year, while TCU has one of the best defenses in the country once again. 

The Horned Frogs are giving up just 304 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play against opponents that average 380 yards per game and 5.5 yards per play.  Texas Tech has faced some great offenses this year, so the numbers haven’t been as good.  But they are giving up 6.2 yards per play against teams that average 6.5 yards per play, so they have actually been better than average.  And they should be able to contain a suspect TCU offense that is managing just 415 yards per game this season. 

TCU is 10-1 UNDER off a win against a conference opponent over the last three seasons.  The Horned Frogs are 11-1 UNDER vs. poor passing defenses that are allowing 250 or more passing yards per game over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Red Raiders last five road games.  The UNDER is 21-6 in Horned Frogs last 27 conference games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday. 

20* App State/Ark State Sun Belt No-Brainer on Arkansas State +10.5 

The Arkansas State Red Wolves are getting zero respect from oddsmakers here as 10-point home underdogs to the Appalachian State Mountaineers.  This is a team that has dominated the Sun Belt, winning at least a share of the conference title five of the last six years while going 40-7 in Sun Belt play over that time frame.  Simply put, they are better than everyone else in the Sun Belt. 

The Red Wolves have opened 3-2 against a tough schedule.  Their two losses came on the road at Alabama and at Georgia Southern 21-28 in the closing seconds.  And that means they are 0-1 in Sun Belt play to open the season, so they’ll be extra motivated here to avoid falling to 0-2.  They also went on the road and got a big win at Tulsa while also beating a good UNLV team at home. 

Appalachian State deserves some credit for taking Penn State to overtime in the opener.  But there’s no question they are overvalued now because of it, especially after three straight blowout wins over Charlotte, Gardner Webb and South Alabama since.  Well, Gardner Webb is an FCS school, and Charlotte and South Alabama are two of the worst FBS programs in the country.  This is a huge step up in class for the Mountaineers tonight. 

Arkansas State is a veteran squad that returned all of its top playmakers from an offense that put up 37.8 points and 495 yards per game last season.  They are still averaging 474 yards per game this season, but the points haven’t been there at 26.4 per game, and I think they’re undervalued because of it.  And their defense has been solid in giving up just 393 yards per game despite the brutal schedule. 

Senior QB Justice Hansen is probably one of the best quarterbacks you’ve never heard of for the Red Wolves.  He is completing 64.8% of his passes for 1,329 yards with an 11-to-2 TD/INT ratio this season.  He has also rushed for 192 yards and two scores.  He has a plethora of weapons outside with the top two receivers back from last year in Justin McInnis (23 receptions, 233 yards, 2 TD) and Omar Bayless (13, 216, 1 TD), as well as Oregon transfer Kirk Merritt (29, 238, 1 TD). 

The Red Wolves are 37-17-1 ATS in their last 55 conference games.  Arkansas State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a bye week.  The Red Wolves are 7-0 ATS in October games over the last three seasons, winning by 23.4 points per game on average.  Take Arkansas State Tuesday. 

20* Redskins/Saints ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Washington +7 

I believe the Washington Redskins are one of the most underrated teams in the NFL at this point in the season.  They are off to a 2-1 start with a 24-6 blowout win at Arizona and a dominant 31-17 home win over Green Bay.  Their only loss came 9-21 at home to Indianapolis, but it’s worth noting they outgained the Colts by 53 yards in that contest. 

In fact, when you look at the numbers, the Redskins have been one of the best teams in the NFL to this point.  They are averaging 383 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play on offense, while giving up just 278 yards pre game and 4.9 yards per play on defense.  They are outgaining their opponents by 105 yards per game and 1.0 yards per play. 

What I love about this Redskins team is that they are excellent in the trenches on both side of the ball.  The run the ball and stop the run.  They are averaging 138 rushing yards per game behind a rejuvenated Adrian Peterson, who will be chomping at the bit to face his former team in the Saints, who cut him last year.  And they are giving up just 91 rushing yards per game, while also being dominant against the pass, allowing just 187 passing yards per game. 

I think the Saints come into this game overvalued off back-to-back wins and covers on the road against the Falcons (in OT) and the Giants.  Everyone is beating the Giants, and the Falcons are decimated with injuries.  People are quick to forget that the Saints were upset by the Bucs 48-40 as 10-point favorites and should have lost to the Browns in a 21-18 win as 9.5-point favorites in their two home games. 

Now the Saints are being asked to lay a full touchdown here to the Redskins, who I believe to be one of the better teams in the NFL.  And this is a Redskins team that will be fresh and ready to go off their bye week.  That bye week came at a good time because they had some injuries along the offensive line, but now they are very healthy compared to most teams. 

Alex Smith should be able to pick apart this New Orleans defense that is giving up 390 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play, including 311 passing yards per game and 9.3 per attempt.  Alex Smith is completing 68.8% of his passes and averaging 8.0 yards per attempt.  He has a 4-to-1 TD/INT ratio and simply does not make mistakes.  He is also one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the NFL as he wins everywhere he goes. 

New Orleans is 12-32 ATS in its last 44 home games off a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better.  The Redskins are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after gaining more than 350 yards in their previous game.  The Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  New Orleans is 1-5 ATS in its last six Monday games. 

The Redskins are 4-2 SU and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings with the Saints.  They were underdogs in five of those games, and both of their losses came by exactly 3 points in overtime, including a 31-34 road loss as 9.5-point underdogs last season.  They simply have the Saints’ number.  Bet the Redskins Monday.

20* Cowboys/Texans NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Houston -3 

The Houston Texans saved their season with a 37-34 overtime win at Indianapolis last week.  They picked up their first win of the year, and now they get two home games back-to-back against Dallas and Buffalo that can get them right back in the playoff conversation.  They are going to be ‘all in’ here for this game against the Cowboys Sunday night. 

There’s no question in my mind that the Texans are better than their 1-3 record.  That’s why I was on them last week to beat the Colts, and I’m on them again this week to beat the Cowboys.  The Texans are outgaining opponents by 32 yards per game this season.  Their offense is certainly not broken, as they are averaging 414 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play.  And Deshaun Watson finally looked real comfortable against the Colts last week.  And JJ Watt looks like his old dominant self again. 

The Cowboys certainly don’t have the firepower to match the Texans on offense.  Dallas is averaging just 16.7 points and 312 yards per game.  And that’s even after they had their best offensive output of the season against the Lions last week.  The Panthers, Giants and Seahawks all shut them down, and I expect the Texans to be able to do the same thing with Watt and company.  Stopping Ezekiel Elliott is the key to stopping Dallas, and the Texans are only giving up 94 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry this season.  Dallas only averages 166 passing yards per game, so it won’t be able to take advantage of what has been the weakness of the Texans in their secondary. 

The Cowboys are 0-2 on the road this season.  They are scoring just 10.5 points per game and averaging 267.5 yards per game on the highway.  Houston has been dealt a tough schedule with three of its first four games on the road, so they will be happy to be playing a home game here Sunday night. 

This Dallas defense is certainly improved this season.  However, injuries are starting to take their toll.  The Cowboys are now without their most important defender in Sean Lee, who is the quarterback of their defense at linebacker.  Last year, opponents averaged 6.0 yards per play when Lee was off the field, and 4.5 yards per play when he was on it.  He makes sure everyone is in the right place at all times, while also making a ton of plays himself.  The loss of Lee cannot be overstated. 

Bill O’Brien is 16-5 ATS vs. awful pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 64% or worse as the coach of Houston.  Jason Garrett is 7-17 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 25% to 40% as the coach of Dallas.  Take the Texans Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Detroit Lions +1.5 

The Detroit Lions are desperate for a win Sunday to save their season.  They have opened 1-3 with two road losses to San Francisco and Dallas by a combined 5 points.  That’s how close they are to being 3-1.  I think they are undervalued right now because of their record because they are clearly a better team than that. 

They show that with their dominant 26-10 home win over the New England Patriots in Week 3.  Their backs were against the wall after an 0-2 start and they responded.  I think this is a similar situation here.  Look for the Lions to put their best foot forward this week against a division rival in the Green Bay Packers. 

Green Bay is overvalued off its 2-1-1 start.  Well, the Packers have played three of their first four games at home. And they are fortunate that they aren’t 1-3 as well.  They needed to overcome a 20-3 deficit to beat the Bears 24-23 as 7-point favorites in Week 1.  They tied the Vikings 29-29 at home in Week 2 with the Vikings missing some easy field goals.  And their 22-0 win over the Bills last week is nothing to be proud of. 

Green Bay failed miserably in its only road game this season.  The Packers went into Washington as 2.5-point favorites and came away with a 17-31 loss.  They are once again short road favorites here when they shouldn’t be.  Aaron Rodgers is still hobbled, and he could be without two of his top receivers in Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison.  The defense is weak once again this season, and the Packers can’t be favored here. 

The Lions have actually had the Packers’ number in recent meetings.  They are 5-4 SU & 5-4 ATS in the last night meetings with three of their losses coming by a touchdown or less.  The Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. NFC opponents.  The Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. NFC foes.  Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss. 

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Green Bay) - after allowing 6 points or less last game against an opponent that is coming off a loss by 3 points or less are 32-7 (82.1%) ATS since 1983.  Take the Lions Sunday.

15* AFC GAME OF THE DAY on Buffalo Bills +5.5 

The Tennessee Titans are way overvalued after their 3-1 start to the season.  All three of hitter wins came by exactly 3 points, and now they’re being asked to go on the road and lay 5.5 points to the Buffalo Bills this week.  That’s simply too much, and it’s time to ‘sell high’ on the Titans and ‘buy low’ on the Bills. 

The Titans have been outgained by an average of 49 yards per game this season.  Their offense has been putrid in averaging 18.7 points, 312 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play.  And their defense is giving up 361 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  This team isn’t nearly as good as their 3-1 record would suggest. 

And I think the Titans are primed for a letdown here.  They are coming off a shocking upset of the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles, which followed up their 9-6 win over the Jaguars the week before.  Coming off those two wins, there’s no way they get up for the Buffalo Bills this week.  And teams who are on the road following a win over the defending Super Bowl champ are 16-38 ATS since 1992. 

The Bills come in undervalued off their shutout loss to the Green Bay Packers last week.  They were in for a letdown following their 27-6 road win over Minnesota in Week 3, which showed what they are capable of.  And the Bills have played three of their first four games on the road this season.  They were competitive in their only home game in a 20-31 loss to the Chargers, and keep in mind that was Josh Allen’s first start at quarterback.  Now he has three games under his belt and is a lot more comfortable. 

Buffalo does have a capable defense that is giving up 358 yards per game and 5.6 yards per play, numbers that are better than what Tennessee has given up.  And the Bills have faced some very good offenses in the Ravens, Chargers, Vikings and Packers thus far.  Tennessee is by far the weakest offense they have faced yet, and I look for them to shut the Titans down here. 

Tennessee is 0-8 ATS in road games after gaining 6 or more yards per play in their previous game over the past three seasons.  It is losing by 13.6 points per game on average in this spot.  Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Tennessee) - off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing against a losing team are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS since 1983.  Roll with the Bills Sunday. 

20* Wyoming/Hawaii MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on Hawaii -3 

I faded Hawaii with success last Saturday as I backed San Jose State +10 at home against the Warriors.  And that game went into overtime as SJSU easily covered, but Hawaii won outright 44-41.  Well, that was a dream spot for SJSU coming off a bye and with Hawaii coming to the mainland. 

However, I think this is now a dream spot for the Warriors.  They will be playing with a ton of momentum from that OT win that improved them to 5-1 this season.  And now fans back home in Hawaii are excited, and it should be a great atmosphere for them at home against Wyoming this week. 

I certainly felt the Warriors were overvalued last week, and that has shown of late as they are just 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  Now the public is off of them, and I think the value is back with them now as only 3-point favorites here.  Plus, their only loss came on the road 21-28 at Army, and we’ve seen Army take Oklahoma to overtime as 28.5-point underdogs and crush Buffalo 42-13 as an underdog.  Clearly, that loss to Army doesn’t look so bad now. 

Hawaii is 3-0 at home this season with three double-digit wins over Navy (59-41), Rice (43-29) and Duquesne (42-21).  The Warriors boast an explosive offense that is putting up 42.0 points and 495.8 yards per game this season, including 48.0 points and 507.0 yards per game at home.  They clearly have a huge edge on offense over Wyoming. 

Wyoming is off to a 2-3 start this season.  Its two wins came against New Mexico State 29-7 and Wofford 17-14.  Well, NMSU is 1-4 this season with four double-digit losses and their only win coming against UTEP.  And that 17-14 win over FCS foe Wofford is clearly a concern for the Cowboys. 

Wyoming’s three losses have all come in blowout fashion.  They lost at home to Washington State 19-41, at Missouri 13-40 and at home to Boise State 14-34 last week.  They were even coming off a bye.  This is a Wyoming offense that is only averaging 18.4 points, 304 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play this season.  There’s no way they can keep up with Hawaii in this one. 

One key factor here that is certainly getting overlooked is Wyoming lost its punter to a season-ending injury in that loss to Boise State last week.  Tim Zaleski suffered a torn ACL.  He started all 18 games since the start of last season, averaging 39.9 yards per punt.  That leaves junior Ryan Galovich, who had not punted in a game until last week.  His lone career punt covered only 27 yards in the fourth quarter last week after Zaleski went down. 

“Losing your punter is a big, big hit,” Wyoming head coach Craig Bowl said. “We’re going to need to absorb that and make some plans.”  With how poor this Wyoming offense has been, they’re going to need their punter a lot this week against Hawaii.  And the Warriors should get plenty of short fields for their offense to take advantage of as a result. 

Plays against underdogs of 3 to 10 points (Wyoming) - after having lost two of their last three games against an opponent that’s won four of their last five games are 41-12 (77.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Warriors will improve to 6-1 Saturday night and get back in the ATS win column with ease.  Roll with Hawaii Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Texas A&M -5.5 

The No. 13 Kentucky Wildcats are starting to get some accolades.  And now they will be looking to open a season 6-0 for the first time since 1950.  I don’t see it happening Saturday as they finally meet their match against Texas A&M and the 12th man at Kyle Field.  It will be a hostile atmosphere for the Wildcats for this Saturday night game under the bright lights. 

Kentucky has had the fortune of playing four of its first five games at home.  The Wildcats’ lone road game was an upset win at Florida, which was clearly impressive, but they caught the Gators in the second week of the season when they weren’t hitting on all cylinders under a new head coach.  And they simply wanted that game more as they had lost 31 straight previously to Florida. 

I’ve been a lot more impressed with Texas A&M despite just a 3-2 start.  Well, the two losses came to a pair of playoff contenders in Clemson and Alabama, and they covered the spread in both games.  They only lost 26-28 at home to Clemson as 11.5-point underdogs, and 23-45 at Alabama as 24-point dogs.  I’m willing to forgive them for their 24-17 win as 20-point favorites against Arkansas last week because it was a hangover spot from the Alabama loss. 

Jimbo Fisher has been quick to call out his team for that poor performance against Arkansas.  Look for them to respond in a big way here.  And Fisher will be going against his pupil in Mark Stoops, who was the defensive coordinator under Fisher as Florida State.  I give a big advantage to the teacher over the pupil in this head coaching matchup. 

Both teams have great defenses, but I give Texas A&M the edge on offense.  The Aggies are averaging 36 points, 512 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play this season behind a balanced attack that averages 232 rushing yards and 280 passing yards per game despite the brutal schedule.  Kentucky is only averaging 407 yards per game. 

This one-dimensional Kentucky offense will cost them this week.  The Wildcats are only averaging 153 passing yards per game this season.  They have relied heavily on Benny Snell and the running game, which has averaged 254 yards per game and 5.8 per carry.  Fisher will be locked in on trying to stop Snell, and there’s no question Texas A&M has the goods to do it. 

Indeed, the Aggies are only allowing 81 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry this season against teams that average 157 yards per game and 4.8 per carry.  Just look at what they did to Clemson and Alabama.  The Aggies held Clemson to just 115 rushing yards on 32 carries, and Alabama to 109 rushing yards on 28 carries.  They are 3rd in the country in stopping the run this season, and they’ve played some great running teams thus far.  It’s impressive to say the least. 

Texas A&M is a perfect 8-0 ATS off a home game over the last two seasons.  Plays against any team (Kentucky) - after beating the spread by 49 or more points in their last five games, a team that wins 80% or more of their games against a good team that wins 60% to 80% are 34-10 (77.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Wildcats are simply overvalued right now due to their 5-0 start and Top 25 ranking.  Roll with Texas A&M Saturday.

15* FSU/Miami ACC No-Brainer on Florida State +14 

It was going to take some time for Willie Taggart to get Florida State back to an ACC title contender.  The Seminoles were decimated by injuries last season and barely made a bowl game.  And they have started just 3-2 this season with ugly losses to Virginia Tech and Syracuse. 

However, now we are nearing the midway point of the season, and it’s clear Taggart hasn’t lost his team.  The fruits of his labor have started to show the past two weeks.  After crushing Northern Illinois 37-19 despite losing the turnover battle 4-0, they went on the road last week and pulled out a gutsy comeback victory at Louisville 28-24.  Taggart clearly hasn’t lost his players, and this team will be feeling good about themselves and 100% focused going up against rival Miami this week. 

I think Miami comes into this game way overvalued due to a four-game winning streak since their ugly 17-33 loss to LSU in the opener.  Well, the four wins have come against Savannah State, Toledo, FIU and UNC.  And they only beat FIU 31-17 as 26-point home favorites. 

I also believe Miami’s misleading 47-10 win over North Carolina last week has them overvalued as well.  That was a much closer game than the final score showed.  UNC committed six turnovers, three of which were returned for touchdowns.  Miami only outgained UNC by 25 yards in that game.  The Hurricanes deserved to probably win by two touchdowns, but not by 37 points.  And because of the misleading final, they’re now being asked to lay 14 points to an FSU team that will be the most talented squad they’ve faced since that 16-point loss to LSU. 

The recent series history shows that there’s no way Miami should be favored by 14 points.  Florida State is 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings with Miami’s two wins coming by 4 points each, including last year’s last-second 24-20 win that will have FSU out for revenge.  In fact, Miami hasn’t beaten Florida State by more than 8 points in any of the last 17 meetings, making for a 17-0 system backing the Seminoles pertaining to this 14-point spread.  The last time Miami won by this kind of margin was their 49-27 win in 2001. 

Mark Richt is 1-9 ATS in home games off two consecutive home wins in all games he has coached.  His teams are only winning by 5.9 points per game in this spot.  Taggart is 23-9 ATS as a road underdog in all games he has coached.  Taggart is 10-2 ATS off a win by 6 points or less in all games he has coached.  The underdog is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Bet Florida State Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota +7 

Both of these teams are off a bye week.  While that would normally be a wash, it’s worth noting that Iowa is 2-8 ATS in road games off a bye under head coach Kirk Ferentz.  I think Iowa wouldn’t have been too focused during its bye week after pretty much losing its Super Bowl in a 17-28 home loss to Wisconsin that will likely decide the West Division.  So I like the spot for Minnesota better. 

And I just don’t think this Iowa team is very good.  The Hawkeyes have played four home games to open the season.  They beat Northern Illinois, Iowa State and Northern Iowa before losing to Wisconsin.  So their three wins were against some pretty bad teams.  And now they’ll be hitting the road for the first time this season. 

Well, Minnesota is 3-0 at home this season.  They mopped the floor with New Mexico State 48-10 in their opener.  Then they beat Fresno State 21-14 despite being underdogs in that game.  And we’ve seen Fresno State go on to basically blow everyone else out, so that win looks better and better by the week.  And the Golden Gophers easily covered as 13.5-point favorites in a 26-3 beat down of Miami Ohio. 

I think Minnesota comes into this game undervalued due to its 13-42 loss at Maryland last time out.  Well, that was a hungry Maryland team that was coming off an upset loss to Temple.  And the Golden Gophers were probably feeling fat and happy after their 3-0 start.  I think that loss will have humbled them, and it will be much easier to get over than Iowa’s loss to Wisconsin where they had every chance to win. 

These teams are pretty much mirror images of each other.  Both have sub-par offenses and elite defenses.  Minnesota is giving up just 17.2 points, 300 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play this season.  They are holding opponents to 12.0 points per game less than their season averages.  And it’s their defense that gives them a chance to win here against an Iowa offense that is only scoring 25.2 points per game despite such a soft schedule. 

Just looking at the recent series history it’s easy to see there’s value on Minnesota as 7-point home underdogs here.  Each of the last three meetings in this series were decided by 7 points or less.  Iowa won all three by 5, 7 and 7 points, so you can bet the Golden Gophers want some revenge.  They last beat Iowa 51-14 at home in 2014.  And the home team is 7-2 SU in the last nine meetings.  The underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings. 

The Hawkeyes are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Golden Gophers are 10-2-3 ATS in their last 15 games following an ATS loss.  Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games.   

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Minnesota) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse against an opponent after a game with turnover margin of -3 or worse are 34-10 (77.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Minnesota Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida +3 

There’s no question LSU came into the season undervalued.  I wasn’t very high on them coming into the season either, but fortunately I’ve only faded them once, and I won that bet when I did on Louisiana Tech +21 in Week 4.  And I’m now ready to fade them again this week. 

LSU is starting to get that respect now that they are 5-0 and ranked No. 5 in the country.  With that ranking comes expectations that are tough to live up to.  They are now being asked to go on the road and lay points to the Florida Gators.  Well, I believe Florida is the better team, and they’re at home. 

I was really high on the Gators coming into the season.  I thought they’d have a chance to win the SEC.  And with the way they are going right now, they certainly will have a chance.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in this season with their only loss coming to Kentucky, which doesn’t look that bad now. 

Florida beat Colorado State 48-10 as 21.5-point home favorites, won at Tennessee 47-21 as 4.5-point favorites, and upset Mississippi State 13-6 as 7-point road underdogs the past three weeks.  The Gators keep getting better with each game.  They are the most experienced team in the SEC with 19 returning starters, while LSU is the least-experienced team in the SEC with just 10 starters back. 

And those returning starters remember their 17-16 loss to LSU last season.  Florida was a much weaker team last year than they are this year due to all the injuries and suspensions.  But they’re a lot healthier this year and got most of those suspended players back.  They will be a force the rest of the way. 

Florida is averaging 6.4 yards per play on offense and giving up just 4.6 yards per play on defense, outgaining teams by 1.8 yards per play.  LSU hasn’t been nearly as dominant in that category, averaging 5.7 on offense and giving up 4.7 on defense, only outgaining opponents by 1.0 yards per play. 

Florida head coach Dan Mullen is making his mark already on this program.  And Mullen actually went 4-0 ATS in his final four meetings with LSU at Mississippi State, so he knows how to beat this team.  Mullen will push the right buttons here and let his team know that they are getting no respect while playing the underdog card.  Expect a huge effort from the Gators this weekend.  Take Florida Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Arkansas +36 

These Alabama spreads are getting out of hand.  They are the No. 1 ranked team in the country and the public has been all over them.  Oddsmakers are forced to set the number higher than it should be to try and get even action on both sides.  And if you faded Alabama the last two weeks, you would have won. 

I did fade Alabama two weeks ago by cashing in Texas A&M +27 in a 23-45 road loss to the Crimson Tide.  I didn’t pull the trigger last week on UL Lafayette +49 but wish I would have.  Alabama actually jumped out to a 56-0 lead before allowing 14 points in the 4th quarter to win 56-14 and fail to cover. 

And that’s the problem with laying these kinds of numbers with Alabama.  They try for a quarter or two, jump out to a big lead, and then call off the dogs.  The back door is almost always open with the underdog.  But I don’t think we’ll need the back door with Arkansas this week. 

You can see that Arkansas is improving despite a misleading 1-4 record.  They have actually outgained three of their five opponents this Eason.  They won their opener 55-20.  They lost 27-34 to Colorado State after leading that game 27-9 in the second half.  They lost 17-44 to North Texas but were only outgained by 40 yards.  They lost 3-34 at Auburn but actually outgained Auburn by 65 yards in one of the most misleading finals of the year.  And they only lost 17-24 as 20-point underdogs at Texas A&M last week, which was their most impressive showing yet. 

The reason Arkansas has a chance to hang within the number is because they boast a defense that is much better than it is getting credit for.  The Razorbacks are only giving up 353 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play against opponents that average 430 yards per game and 5.6 per play.  They have been very good against the run, yielding just 106 rushing yards per game and 3.0 per carry. 

Arkansas held a good North Texas offense to just 376 total yards.  Then the next week in the misleading final of the year they held Auburn to just 225 total yards.  And then they held an explosive Texas A&M offense to just 377 total yards last week.  That’s a Texas A&M offense that put up over 500 yards on Clemson and 393 yards against Alabama.  The Razorbacks should be able to stop the run once Alabama gets ahead, and that will be key in them playing close to an even game with the Crimson Tide in the second half. 

Arkansas is 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  They lost by 1, 13, 19 and 32 points.  But even in that 32-point loss last year on the road they covered as 37-point underdogs.  And now they’re 36-point underdogs at home this time around.  It’s simply too much. 

The Razorbacks are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Crimson Tide are 2-6 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a losing record.  Alabama is 1-5 ATS in its last six conference games.  Arkansas is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 home games vs. teams who average 275 or more passing yards pre game.  The Razorbacks are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games following three or more consecutive losses.   

Plays on underdogs of 31.5 or more points (Arkansas) - with 17 or more starters returning are 52-22 (70.3%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.

20* Oklahoma/Texas Big 12 Early ANNIHILATOR on Texas +8 

It’s well documented how great Tom Herman has been as an underdog.  In fact, Herman is a ridiculous 22-1 ATS as an underdog in all games as a coach dating back to his time as an assistant at Iowa State and Ohio State, and most recently as the head coach of Houston and Texas. 

Herman has his best team yet at Texas.  I thought the Longhorns were a Big 12 title contender coming into the season, and nothing has changed my mind on that.  Sure, they were upset by Maryland in the opener, but they came into the season overvalued.  They have since reeled off four straight victories to get back in the discussion. 

They throttled USC 37-14 at home as 3-point favorites, and won outright as 2.5-point home underdogs over TCU in a dominant 31-16 win.  I think last week’s narrow 19-14 win at Kansas State has Texas undervalued coming into this week.  But that was a 19-0 game before the Wildcats tacked on two second half touchdowns.  And Texas held K-State to just 217 total yards in a dominant effort. 

Conversely, I think Oklahoma is coming in overvalued off its 66-33 win over Baylor last week.  Well, the Sooners were 21-point favorites in that game so it wasn’t expected to be close.  And it’s clear that Baylor is still another year or two away from really being competitive.

That effort against Baylor has folks quickly forgetting that Oklahoma needed overtime to beat Army as a 28.5-point favorite the week prior.  And the Sooners failed to cover their previous three spreads before Baylor, so they’ve been overvalued.  It’s just tough for Top 10 teams like the Sooners to live up to expectations every week because they are ranked so high and in the public eye.

Oklahoma's five opponents this season are a combined 1-10 against Power 5 opponents, so they haven't really played anybody compared to Texas.  The Longhorns already have wins over two ranked opponents in TCU and USC by a combined 38 points.  They have played the much tougher schedule, and that will have them a lot more battle-tested than the Sooners coming into this one.

Texas certainly wants some revenge after some heartbreaking losses to Oklahoma in recent years.  Oklahoma has won three of the last five meetings, including the last two, but all three victories came by only 5 points.  Texas is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings, including two outright upsets as double-digit underdogs, covering the spread by an average of 15 points per game in those five contests.  I think there’s a ton of value getting the Longhorns as more than a TD dog here against the Sooners. 

This is an elite Texas defense that is giving up just 19.8 points, 333 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play this season with opposing QB’s completing just 54.9% of their passes.  Their defense is the reason they have a chance to upset the Sooners here.  Oklahoma has given up at least 21 points in four consecutive games, including the 33 to Baylor last week.  Their lackluster defense, which is allowing 30 points and 470 yards per game in two Big 12 games against Iowa State and Baylor, is going to make it difficult for them to put Texas away. 

Texas is 7-0 ATS vs. good passing teams who average 8.5 or more yards per attempt over the last three seasons.  The Longhorns are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Sooners are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.  The Longhorns are 10-2 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 37 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  Bet Texas Saturday. 

20* Georgia Tech/Louisville ACC ANNIHILATOR on Louisville +4.5 

I’m surprised Georgia Tech is a road favorite at Louisville this week.  Both of these teams have been disappointing to this point, but for whatever reason the Yellow Jackets are getting respect, but the Cardinals are not.  I’m not buying it. 

I think Louisville’s potential is much greater the rest of the way than Georgia Tech.  This Cardinals team still has a ton of talent and they are relatively healthy.  They showed a lot last week when they led Florida State late in the 4th quarter and probably should have won that game, but lost 24-28.  They outgained the Seminoles by 51 yards and covered as 5-point underdogs. 

I think the Cardinals are going to be playing pissed off at home Friday night.  They need a win if they are going to make a bowl game because they cannot afford to fall to 2-4 with the tough schedule that lies ahead.  I expect them to get the job done, and for the offense to build on a solid effort in which they gained 421 yards against a good FSU defense. 

Louisville should be able to light up a Georgia Tech defense that gave up 49 points to South Florid and 49 points to Clemson in two of its three losses.  And this is a Georgia Tech offense that just hasn’t been the same since losing KirVonte Benson to a season-ending injury in the loss to USF.  Benson rushed for over 1,000 yards last season and they simply lack playmakers without him. 

Georgia Tech’s only two wins this season came against Alcorn State and Bowling Green.  They trailed Pitt 24-6 in the 4th quarter, and that’s a Pitt team that we’ve seen is absolutely awful.  They also lost 38-49 to a USF team that nearly lost to both Illinois and ECU.  It’s clear to me that the Yellow Jackets aren’t very good. 

Georgia Tech is 0-8 SU & 0-8 ATS in its last eight games as a road favorite, losing outright by double-digits four times during this span.  The Yellow Jackets simply cannot be trusted in the road favorite role, especially here on a short week against a talented Louisville team that is way undervalued right now after a poor start to the season.  The Cardinals have the bigger upside, and I think they show it Friday night.  Bet Louisville Friday. 

20* Colts/Patriots AFC Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 52 

I’m taking the UNDER in this game Thursday night between the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts.  I’m shocked it’s this high given the injuries to both teams, plus the fact that both offenses just really aren’t playing well at all this season. 

Andrew Luck’s favorite target in T.Y. Hilton is doubtful with a hamstring injury.  Tight end Jack Doyle is also out with a hip injury.  The Colts were missing their two starting tackles last week and could be without them again.  I just don’t know how the Colts are going to be able to move the ball and score points here. 

I know Julian Edelman returns for the Patriots this week from a four-game suspension.  However, they could be without Rob Gronkowski, who left last week with an ankle injury and is highly questionable.  Either way this is a Patriots offense that just isn’t as explosive as in year’s past as they’ll have to rely more on defense this season to win games. 

New England is only averaging 23.7 points and 337.2 yards per game this season.  The defense is giving up just 21.0 points per game, and came through with their best effort of the season last week in holding the Dolphins to just 7 points and 172 total yards.  Expect more of the same here from this defense against the banged-up Colts. 

Indianapolis has been fine offensively in its two domed home games, but outside on grass has been another story.  The Colts beat the Redskins 21-9 in Week 2 for just 30 combined points, and they lost to the Eagles 16-20 in Week 3 for just 36 combined points.  Well, they managed just 281 total yards against the Redskins, and just 209 total yards against the Eagles.  Give their defense credit for giving up just 14.5 points per game in their two road games as this is clearly an improved unit this season. 

Plays on the UNDER on any team where the total is 49.5 or more in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential) are 38-12 (76%) over the last five seasons.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Colts last six road games.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Colts last nine games following a loss.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Patriots last seven games after rushing for more than 150 yards in their previous game.  The UNDER is 13-6 in Patriots last 19 games overall.  The UNDER is 10-2 in Colts last 12 games overall.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Tulsa/Houston ESPN No-Brainer on Tulsa +18.5 

I have no doubt Tulsa is better than an 18.5-point underdog to Houston today.  But the fact that the Golden Hurricane have opened 1-3 has them way undervalued.  I’ll back them here catching this big number in a rivalry game that they care more about than Houston does. 

All three of Tulsa’s losses have come by 14 points or less.  They only lost by 7 at Texas as 21-point underdogs to show what they are capable of.  They lost 20-29 to Arkansas State and were only outgained by 70 yards.  And they actually outgained Temple by 103 yards but lost 17-31 on the road due to giving up two defensive touchdowns. 

Tulsa has now had two full weeks to get right off their bye.  They are outgaining their opponents by 34 yards per game this season, so they are way better than their 1-3 record would suggest.  And the schedule has been tough to their credit, so they are battle-tested and ready to give Houston a run for its money. 

The Cougars have opened 3-1 and are overvalued.  Their win over Arizona doesn’t look that good now, and their other two wins came against Rice and Texas Southern.  They only beat Rice by 18 as 25-point favorites and actually trailed that game 24-17 at halftime.  They needed a big second half just to escape with that victory.  And they lost 49-63 to Texas Tech. 

It’s clear that Tulsa takes this game more seriously than Houston every year.  Tulsa is 2-3 SU but 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Houston hasn’t beaten Tulsa by more than 14 points in any of the five meetings.  Last year, Tulsa won 45-17 outright as 13.5-point home underdogs, and that was a bad Tulsa team.  In 2016, Tulsa only lost 31-38 at Houston as 21.5-point dogs. 

The Golden Hurricane are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Tulsa is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 road games.  The Cougars are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a SU win of more than 20 points.  Houston is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 conference games.  The Golden Hurricane are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in Houston.  The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take Tulsa Thursday. 

20* Chiefs/Broncos ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Denver +5 

The Kansas City Chiefs are clearly the flavor of the week right now.  They have opened 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS with Patrick Mahomes setting all kinds of records through three weeks.  While he and the Chiefs have been impressive, it’s clearly time to ‘sell high’ on them. 

The Chiefs were 3.5-point underdogs at the Chargers in Week 1.  They won that game by 10 against a Chargers defense that was missing two of their best players.  Then they were 4-point road dogs to the Steelers in Week 2 and won 42-37 against a Steelers defense that is clearly terrible without Ryan Shazier, and they were missing Joe Haden.  Then they won 38-27 as 6-point home favorites over the 49ers last week.  The 49ers also have a soft defense, and Jimmy G got hurt when they were making their comeback. 

So now the Chiefs are being asked to go on the road and lay 5 points to a good Denver Broncos team.  And they will be playing in altitude, which makes this one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL for the Broncos.  They won their first two home games over the Seahawks and Raiders this season before losing on the road to the Ravens last week, which isn’t a bad loss. 

There’s no question the Broncos have one of the most improved offenses in the league behind Case Keenum and the emergence of RB Philip Lindsay.  Denver is putting up 382.7 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play despite playing two quality defenses in Seattle and Baltimore.  They are tied for 11th in total offense this season. 

Well, Mahomes has masked a Kansas City offense that has been atrocious this year.  Indeed, the Chiefs rank dead last in total defense at 474 yards per game.  They are also 31st in scoring defense at 30.7 points per game and 31st in yards per play (6.7) allowed.  No question Keenum and company are going to be able to take advantage. 

But the biggest reason I like the Broncos this week is because they have the defense it takes to stop the league’s top offenses.  They have a tremendous pass rush with Von Miller and Bradley Chubb, who will make life miserable on Mahomes.  And they have one of the top secondaries in the NFL.  I know the numbers don’t show it up to this point, but I’m believing it’s more of an aberration.  This has been a top 5 defense, especially against the pass, for the better part of the last five years. 

Denver also wants revenge from five straight loses to the Chiefs in this series.  But the last two Kansas City wins in Denver have come by 3 points each.  And I think we are getting a ton of value here with the Broncos +5 at home.  They can still lose the game and get the cover with this inflated line, though I’m expecting them to win outright.  Bet the Broncos Monday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 

Carson Wantz had a successful debut against the Colts last week.  He completed 25-of-37 passes for 255 yards with a touchdown and an interception while leading the Eagles to a 20-16 victory.  And that was clearly a bigger blowout than the final score showed last the Eagles outgained the Colts by 170 yards. 

Now I expect Wentz to be even sharper in his second game back against the Titans.  I actually think Wentz is at least a 4-point upgrade over Nick Foles.  It’s a miracle the Eagles won a Super Bowl with Foles as their QB because he did not play well other than the Super Bowl.  This team simply won with a great defense, which they still have after limiting the Colts to just 209 total yards last week.  And now their offense will get back to being that high-octane unit it was with Wentz under center last year. 

Tennessee is the single-most fraudulent team in the NFL right now.  They’re 2-1, but they should clearly be 0-3.  They lost 20-27 at Miami in their opener.  Then they beat Houston 20-17 at home in Week 2 despite getting outgained by 154 yards.  And they upset the Jaguars 9-6 last week.  That win over the Jags is earning them too much credit from oddsmakers.  It was a clear letdown spot for Jacksonville off its win over New England the previous week. 

The Titans simply cannot keep winning with how poor their offense has been playing.  They rank 29th in total offense at 284.0 yards per game.  They are also 27th at 4.7 yards per play.  Marcus Mariota was forced into action last week despite a sore elbow because Blaine Gabbert was knocked out with a concussion.  Mariota has looked terrible thus far this season, and he doesn’t have any weapons, especially with his favorite target in TE Delanie Walker out with a season-ending injury. 

Meanwhile, the Eagles get some key players back this week on offense.  Both RB Jay Ajayi and RB Darren Sproles are expected to return this week after sitting out the Colts game.  Plus, WR Alshon Jeffery may return this week after missing the first three games of the season with a shoulder injury.  That would be a big boost to Wentz and the offense. 

The Titans are 17-39-2 ATS in their last 58 games following a SU win, and 16-36-1 ATS in their last 53 games off an ATS win.  The Eagles are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games overall.  Philadelphia is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Titans will get exposed this week for the frauds that they are by one of the best teams in the NFL in Philadelphia.  Roll with the Eagles Sunday. 

25* AFC East GAME OF THE YEAR on New England Patriots -6.5 

Had the Patriots not lost to the Lions last week, this line would have been closer to Patriots -10.  Now we are getting the Patriots under a touchdown at -6.5.  I think we are getting a ton of line value here in a spot that is a supreme one for the home team. 

The Patriots will obviously be in a sour mood off their lost to the Lions.  We’ll get a great effort from them here, especially since this game has a ton riding on it in the AFC East race with Miami already off to a 3-0 start.  I love backing the Patriots off a loss, and I think they’ll perform much better at home here off back-to-back road losses. 

The Dolphins are the most fraudulent team in the NFL.  Yes, they’re 3-0, but they are very fortunate to have that record.  They were outgained by 105 yards in their win over the Jets.  They only outgained the Titans by 6 yards and got help with Marcus Mariota getting injured.  And they were outgained by 61 yards by the Raiders last week.  So, they have been outgained by 150 yards on the season, or an average of 50 yards per game.  And their three wins have come against three of the worst teams in the NFL in the Titans, Raiders and Jets. 

The Patriots had a lot of injuries heading into that Detroit games.  I’m expecting they could get back Patrick Chung, Trey Flowers, Eric Rowe and Rex Burkhead.  Plus, with their deficiencies at receiver thus far, don’t be surprised if Josh Gordon makes his New England debut here at home and has a huge game. 

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 10-2 SU & 11-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  The Patriots are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six home meetings with the Dolphins.  They have won by 18, 7, 29, 28, 10 and 28 points in their last six home meetings with the Dolphins, or by an average of 20 points per game.  They have won nine straight home meetings with Miami with eight of those wins coming by 7 points or more. 

The Dolphins suffered some key injuries on defense last week that will hurt them against the Patriots this week.  They lost arguably their best run stopper and one of their top pass rushers in DE William Hayes to a torn ACL.  They also lost fellow DE Andre Branch.  S Reshad Jones is questionable with a shoulder injury here as well.  Look for the Patriots to get their running game going this week, and for Tom Brady to get right against a soft Miami defense. 

New England is 8-1 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less over the last three seasons.  The Patriots are 8-0 ATS after gaining 99 or fewer rushing yards in two consecutive games over the last two seasons.  New England is 29-12 ATS in its last 41 games overall.  The Patriots are 35-16-2 ATS in their last 53 home games.  The Dolphins are 5-22 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing more than 250 passing yards in their previous game.  Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games.  Bet the Patriots Sunday. 

20* AFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Houston Texans +3 

The Houston Texans have been a big disappointment with their 0-3 start.  So I think they are undervalued right now because they have not lived up to expectations.  I expect a huge effort from them Sunday in Indianapolis as they try to get in the win column and save their season. 

The best part about the Texans is there’s no doubt they are better than their 0-3 record would suggest.  They lost in Week 1 at New England but were only outgained by 64 yards.  They outgained the Titans by 154 yards and should have won that game on the road.  And they outgained the Giants by 48 yards at home last week, yet lost. 

There’s no question the Texans still have a great defense.  And their offense hasn’t gotten the points that they should have by now with how well their moving the football.  Indeed, the Texans rank 8th in the NFL in total offense at 396.3 yards per game, but just 22nd in scoring offense at 19.7 points per game.  At some point, this offense is going to start turning that yardage into points, and I’m guessing it’s going to be this week. 

I strongly believe the Colts are one of the worst teams in the NFL.  They beat the Redskins in Week 2 for their only win, but they were outgained by 53 yards.  They were outgained by 170 yards by the Eagles last week in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score.  While the Colts may be improved defensively, this is still a bottom half of the league unit. 

The problem with the Colts right now actually is their offense.  They rank 28th in the league in total offense at 290.0 yards per game.  Andrew Luck doesn’t quite look right, and the offense is missing a lot of players due to injury.  In fact, the Colts as a team have the longest injury report in the entire NFL if you take a look at it.  They have been playing without important players like TE Jack Doyle, T Antony Castonzo and RB Marlon Mack.  They have a handful of important defensively players who are either listed as questionable or out this week. 

Plays on road teams (Houston) - who are averaging at least 265 passing yards per game against a poor pass defense that allows 230-265 YPG, after allowing 7 or more passing yards per attempt in two straight games are 29-6 (82.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.   

Bill O’Brien is 15-5 ATS vs. awful pass defenses that allow 64% or more completions as the coach of Houston.  Opposing QB’s are completing 71.2% of their passes against the Colts this season.  The road team is 5-1-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Take the Texans Sunday. 

20* CFB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon State +22 

I really question what the Arizona State Sun Devils have left in the tank for Oregon State this week.  They are coming off three straight physically taxing games against Michigan State, San Diego State and Washington over the past three weeks.  Those are three teams that will punch you in the mouth on both sides of the football. 

Now they must play an Oregon State team that will go up-tempo and spread you out.  It’s a completely different style than what they’ve seen thus far, and I think this Oregon State offense will certainly have some success against Arizona State’s defense. 

It’s an Oregon State offense that scored 31 points and had nearly 400 total yards against Ohio State in Week 1.  Then they scored 48 with 639 total yards against Southern Utah in Week 2.  And they lost scored 35 with 540 total yards against Nevada in Week 3 in a game they should have won. 

But Oregon State laid an egg in a 14-35 home loss to Arizona last week.  So this week I think we’re getting the opportunity to ‘buy low’ on the Beavers off that performance.  And we are ‘selling high’ on the Sun Devils after their 3-1 ATS start which included a cover as 18-point underdogs in a 20-27 loss at Washington last week.  The Sun Devils will also have a ‘hangover’ effect after facing ranked Washington, and they won’t be focused enough this week to put Oregon State away by more than three touchdowns. 

And Arizona State hasn’t been able to beat Oregon State by this kind of margin in recent years.  In fact, each of the last nine meetings in this series have been decided by 16 points or less.  And dating back further, Arizona State has not beaten Oregon State by more than 21 points in any of the last 23 meetings.  That’s a perfect 23-0 system backing the Beavers pertaining to this 22-point spread.  Bet Oregon State Saturday.

20* Ohio State/Penn State ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 71 

This total of 71 is simply too high.  For starters, it’s the highest total for any Penn State game in program history.  And it’s the third-highest total in Ohio State program history.  That alone shows that there has to be some value with this UNDER. 

This game not only has Big Ten title implications, but also national title implications as well.  It will be played closer to the vest, which is going to favor the defenses.  It will be a white out at Penn State Saturday night and the noise is going to affect both offenses.  It’s also on grass, which is ideal conditions for under bettors as compared to turf. 

A lot is being made about how well both offenses have played.  But they’ve both played extremely soft schedules to this point.  And the defenses have both been excellent.  The Nittany Lions are allowing just 19.5 points per game this season, holding opponents to 13 points and 1.3 yards per play less than their season averages.  The Buckeyes are giving up 17 points per game, holding opponents to 9.4 points and 0.5 yards per play less than their season averages. 

I think the fact that last year was a shootout between these two teams is also playing into this total being so high.  Ohio State beat Penn State 39-38 at home last year for 77 combined points.  But that was a huge misleading final.  Penn State only had 283 yards of total offense, yet scored 38 points.  And they barely topped 800 total yards between them. 

The previous three meetings between these teams were all low-scoring.  Penn State won 24-21 at home in 2016 for 45 combined points.  Ohio State won 38-10 at home in 2015 for 48 combined points.  And Ohio State won 31-24 (OT) on the road in 2014 for 55 combined points, but just 48 points at the end of regulation.  I think we see a combined score in the 50’s here, not the 70’s.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Middle Tennessee +3.5 

The betting public jumped on the Lane Kiffin train late in the season last year.  They beat up on a very weak schedule and kept on covering.  And they haven’t jumped off the train yet in 2018.  The Owls clearly came into this season overvalued, and that has shown with their 0-4 ATS start.  And now they’re once again overvalued as road favorites here against a very good Middle Tennessee squad. 

FAU opened its season with a 14-63 loss at Oklahoma as only 18.5-point dogs.  Then they failed to cover as 7.5-point home favorites in a 33-27 home win over Air Force.  They weren’t impressive at all in their 49-28 home win over Bethune-Cookman as 40.5-point favorites.  And they lost 36-56 on the road to UCF as 14-point favorites last week. 

That game against UCF sets FAU up for a big ‘hangover’ effect here.  The Owls wanted to prove they could beat UCF, a team that went undefeated last season and still hasn’t lost.  And instead they got embarrassed, giving up 56 points and 545 total yards and turning the ball over three times.  I don’t think they’ll get up off the mat in time to get ready for Middle Tennessee this week. 

This is a Middle Tennessee team that is rested and ready to go after getting a bye last week.  And it’s also one that is undervalued right now due to its 1-2 start to the season.  But both losses came on the road to a pair of SEC teams in Vanderbilt and Georgia.  Now they’ll be primed for a big performance in their Conference USA opener here against FAU with two weeks to prepare for them. 

Middle Tennessee is 9-1 SU in its last 10 meetings with FAU.  The Blue Raiders had their nine-game winning streak over the Owls snapped last year in a 20-38 road loss.  But they were without starting QB Brent Stockstill, and their backup QB three three costly interceptions.  Yet the Blue Raiders still outgained the Owls 454 to 413 in that game with a backup QB.   

Now Stockstill is back healthy and sitting on a big performance as he’s one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country.  Stockstill is completing 69% of his passes with a 7-to-2 TD/INT ratio thus far in 2018 despite facing a brutal schedule.  He’ll have his way with an awful FAU pass defense that is allowing 67.3% completions and 10.1 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks.  This its an awful FAU defense in general. 

Middle Tennessee is 6-0 ATS off a loss by 21 or more points over the last three seasons.  It is bouncing back to win by 16.0 points per game on average in this spot.  The Owls are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Blue Raiders are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a SU loss.  Middle Tennessee is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games following a bye week.  The Blue Raiders are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.  Roll with Middle Tennessee Saturday. 

25* Mountain West GAME OF THE YEAR on San Jose State +10 

The San Jose State Spartans are coming off a bye week.  They have had two full weeks to prepare for Hawaii, and they’ll be desperate for a win after their 0-3 start to the season.  I think they’re sitting on a big game here against a Hawaii team that has to be tired after playing five games already without a bye in between. 

It’s easy to see why San Jose State is 0-3.  The Spartans opened the season with a very good FCS opponent in Cal Davis and lost 38-44 as 3-point favorites.  Then they went on the road to Washington State and lost 31-0 as 30.5-point underdogs.  It’s clear that Washington State is better than most expected. 

But most impressively, San Jose State only lost 22-35 at Oregon as 42.5-point underdogs in Week 3.  They covered the spread by 29.5 points in that matchup.  And we know how good Oregon looked at home against Stanford last week as they clearly should have won that game.  And SJSU held Oregon’s offense to just 35 points and 443 total yards, which is no small feat. 

Hawaii is overvalued off its 4-1 start to the season.  The four wins have come against Colorado State, Navy, Rice and Duquesne.  And it’s not like they are blowing anyone out as their biggest victory was a 21-point win over Duquesne as 36.5-point favorites.  Now the Warriors are being asked to lay double-digits on the road here to an improved, rested San Jose State squad, and it’s simply too much. 

Last year, San Jose State went into Hawaii and played a four-quarter game, losing 26-37 as 17-point underdogs.  They actually outgained the Warriors by 53 yards in that contest and racked up 504 total yards on Hawaii’s defense.  I think they’ll have their way with a Hawaii defense that is giving up 30.6 points, 428 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play against opponents that are averaging 25.7 points, 374 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play.  This is a bad Hawaii defense that can’t be trusted laying double-digits on the road here. 

Nick Rolovich is 1-8 ATS as a favorite as the coach of Hawaii.  Rolovich is 1-10 ATS off two or more consecutive ATS losses as the coach of the Warriors.  The Warriors are also 0-9 ATS in their last nine games off an ATS loss.  Hawaii is 6-21 ATS in its last 27 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet San Jose State Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Connecticut +17.5 

It’s time to ‘buy low’ on Connecticut and ‘sell high’ on Cincinnati this week.  Cincinnati has opened 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS this season, while UConn has opened 1-3 SU & 0-3-1 ATS.  As a result, you have to pay a tax to bet Cincinnati here as 17.5-point road favorites against the Huskies. 

I’ll admit the Huskies have a terrible defense and have been dreadful.  But a lot of that has to do with the schedule.  They have faced UCF, Boise State and Syracuse already, and those are three of the best offenses in the country.  It’s also a big reason why they are 1-3 as they have been 24-point underdogs plus in those three contests.  I don’t think Cincinnati is anywhere near as good as those three squads. 

Cincinnati has feasted on an easy schedule.  They beat UCLA, Miami Ohio, Alabama A&M and Ohio.  Well, UCLA is still winless, Miami Ohio is not nearly as good as they were expected to be, and the same can be said for Ohio.  No question the Bearcats are improved this season, but they are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers due to this 4-0 start. 

UConn does have a good offense that can put up enough points to stay within the number this week.  Despite the tough schedule, they are averaging 25.2 points and 412 yards per game.  Randy Edsall has allowed them to put in a more up-tempo offense that is starting to see the fruits of their labor. 

UConn was bad last season and still nearly beat Cincinnati, losing 21-22 as 6.5-point road underdogs.  They outgained the Bearcats 449 to 335 in that game.  And UConn won 20-9 as 3-point home underdogs against the Bearcats in 2016 as well, outgaining them 412 to 317 in the process.   

So, after being only 6.5-point road dogs to Cincinnati last year, the Huskies are now 17.5-point home dogs this year, basically an 18-point adjustment from 2017 to 2018 when you factor in home-field advantage.  There’s clearly a ton of value on the Huskies +17.5 here. 

Plays against road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (Cincinnati) - who are outgaining their opponents by 125 yards per game, after gaining 525 or more yards in two consecutive games are 46-14 (76.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.   

Cincinnati is 1-8 ATS vs. poor pass defenses that allow 58% or more completions over the last three seasons.  The Bearcats are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 conference games.  The Huskies are 5-1 ATS in their last six conference games.  The home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Take UConn Saturday. 

15* Syracuse/Clemson ACC Early ANNIHILATOR on Syracuse +25.5 

Clemson is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers as 25.5-point home favorites over Syracuse this week.  This line opened at -18.5 and has been moved seven full points to -25.5 as of this writing.  That was mostly due to Clemson announcing that freshman Trevor Lawrence will start at QB. 

No question Lawrence has the better long-term potential over the incumbent Kelly Bryant.  But I worry about the state of the Tigers in the locker room right now because Bryant immediately announced he was transferring after the decision to start Lawrence came out this week.  There’s no doubt that the team loved Bryant. 

And Clemson being a Top 5 team makes them overvalued most weeks.  They have opened just 1-3 ATS in their four games with their lone cover coming as 15.5-point road favorites over Georgia Tech last week.  I was on Clemson in that game as my free pick for Saturday because it was a great matchup for them, and they own the Yellow Jackets’ triple option.  And Georgia Tech simply isn’t any good. 

But this Syracuse team might be the most underrated team in the entire country.  Head coach Dino Babers has his best team yet this year.  The Orange have opened 4-0 SU & 3-0-1 ATS in their four games. Yet they are getting no respect from oddsmakers this week. 

Syracuse goes as QB Eric Dungey goes.  When healthy, they have been a dangerous team.  Last year they upset Clemson at home as 23.5-point underdogs.  And they were huge dogs against LSU, Miami and Florida State last year, but lost those three games by a combined 11 points. 

Dungey is healthy this year and engineering an offense that is putting up 49.5 points and 523 yards per game.  He is completing 62.4% of his passes with a 9-to-1 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 354 yards and four scores on 6.9 per carry.  Dungey gave Clemson’s defense fits last year.  They run a quick-strike passing game that will negate Clemson’s great D-Line, and Dungey’s ability to extend plays is exactly the recipe for having success against this Clemson D. 

After all, Clemson’s worst performance this season was against Texas A&M and mobile QB Kellen Mond, who torched the Clemson defense for 501 total yards, including 430 passing.  The Tigers only won that game 28-26 as 11.5-point favorites.  I’m not so sure Syracuse isn’t every bit as good as Texas A&M, and Dungey is a comparable QB to Mond, and probably better.  Clemson’s other three wins have come against Furman, Georgia Southern and Georgia Tech, three run-heavy triple-option teams who just didn’t have the athletes to match the Tigers.  Syracuse does. 

I have been impressed with the improvement Syracuse has made defensively this year, which I think is getting overlooked.  Not only can Syracuse score with Clemson, they can get off the field, too.  That was evident in Week 3 when they held Florida State to just 7 points and 240 total yards.  I know Western Michigan scored 42 points on them in Week 1, but Syracuse got a huge early 34-7 lead and was simply playing prevent defense the rest of the way.  They won’t be playing prevent against Clemson, they’ll be playing more aggressive like they did against FSU. 

Plays on road teams (Syracuse) an excellent offensive team averaging 6.2 or more yards per play against a team with an excellent defense allowing 4.2 or fewer yards per play, after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 34-9 (79.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.   

Clemson has only won three of its past 19 ACC games by more than 22 points.  The Tigers are also 1-8 ATS in their last nine ACC games as a favorite of 20-plus points.  The Orange are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games following a win.  The Orange are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.  Roll with Syracuse Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Boston College -12.5 

A lot of bettors were high on Boston College coming into the season.  It made sense because they finished last season very strong and had 16 starters back this season, including 10 on an explosive offense led by QB Anthony Brown and RB AJ Dillon.  And their defense is stout year after year. 

The Eagles delivered for bettors the first three weeks of the season, opening 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS with wins and covers against UMass, Holy Cross and Wake Forest.  But then they laid an egg last week at Purdue, losing 13-30 as 6-point favorites.  And I think this is a perfect ‘buy low’ situation on the Eagles this week as only 12.5-point favorites over Temple. 

Look for the Eagles to be in a sour mood all week in practice.  They’re sitting on a big effort here.  I still believe this is one of the best teams in the ACC and a legit contender.  That loss to Purdue wasn’t as bad as it looked because Purdue was way better than the 0-3 record they had coming into that contest, losing three straight coin flip games.  Purdue simply wanted it more, and Boston College was feeling fat and happy being ranked in the Top 25.  They’ll be humbled this week, and a humbled team is a dangerous one. 

We’ll ‘sell high’ on this Temple team this week.  The Owls are coming off back-to-back wins and covers.  They beat Maryland 35-14 on the road as 16-point underdogs.  Then they beat Tulsa 31-17 as 6-point home favorites last week.  Those two efforts quickly allowed most to overlook the fact that Temple had already been upset by Villanova 17-19 at home in Week 1 and Buffalo 29-36 at home in Week 2. 

I think this Temple team is more like the one that lost to Villanova and Buffalo than the one that beat Maryland and Tulsa.  And that win over a 2-10 Tulsa team from last year could not have been more misleading.  Tulsa outgained Temple 403 to 300 for the game, or by 103 total yards.  But the Golden Hurricane turned the ball over 5 times, including a 36-yard INT return TD and a 50-yard fumble return TD.  I’m giving Temple zero credit for beating Tulsa at home in a game they should have lost.  Boston College will be by far the best team that they’ve faced yet. 

Boston College is 10-1 ATS when playing with 6 or less days’ rest over the last two seasons.  The Eagles are 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Boston College is 8-0-1 ATS in its last nine games on field turf.  The Owls are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. ACC opponents.   

Boston College is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with Temple, winning all five games by 17 points or more and by an average of 23.0 points per game.  The Eagles get right this week with a blowout victory by two touchdowns or more.  Bet Boston College Saturday. 

20* UCLA/Colorado Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 61 

Both Colorado and UCLA have had two weeks to prepare for this game as each is coming off a bye week. I actually think that strongly favors the defenses in this game getting that extra time to prepare for these offenses.  And as a result, I expect a lower-scoring game than the oddsmakers are anticipating, so I’ll take the UNDER 61 here. 

Colorado is putting up some big offensive numbers thus far, but that’s only because they’ve faced such a soft schedule of opposing defenses in Colorado State, Nebraska and New Hampshire.  And despite playing a decent schedule of opposing offenses, the Buffaloes are only giving up 18.3 points, 373 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play. 

This isn’t the Chip Kelly offense we saw at Oregon.  UCLA has an atrocious offense and is seriously lacking talent.  The Bruins have only averaged 17.3 points, 320 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play this season.  That’s the biggest reason why they are 0-3 because their offense has been woeful, plus they’ve played a tough schedule. 

But I have been impressed with what UCLA has done defensively despite facing Cincinnati, Oklahoma and Fresno State.  The Bruins are holding those three offenses to an average of just 403 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play.  Those three offenses average 6.3 yards per play on the season, so the Bruins are holding them to 1.1 yards per play less than their season averages. 

The last two meetings in this series have gone well UNDER the total.  Colorado beat UCLA 20-10 at home in 2016 with total of 56.5, going 26.5 points UNDER the number with only 30 combined points.  Then last year UCLA won 27-23 at home for 50 combined points with a total of 66.5, going UNDER by 16.5 points.  Now we’re seeing another total that is too high here at 61. 

UCLA is 10-2 UNDER in its last 12 games after allowing 37 points or more in two straight games coming in.  The Bruins are 32-13 UNDER in their last 45 games after a game where they committed four or more turnovers.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Colorado’s last six Friday games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday. 

20* Vikings/Rams NFC Thursday No-Brainer on Minnesota +7 

Had the Vikings not lost to the Bills last week, this line would have been in the -3.5 to -4 range in favor of the Los Angeles Rams.  But since they lost, we are getting at least a field goal worth of value here.  I simply believe that was a flat spot for the Vikings and actually had the Bills +17 as a premium play Sunday. 

The Vikings were coming off a huge game against their biggest rivals in the Packers, in which they tied in Green Bay.  And they had another massive game on deck Thursday on a short week here against the Rams.  So it was easy to see the Vikings coming out flat.  I think now they’ll be fired up and be playing with a chip on their shoulder this week, so we should get the best version of the Vikings, which is still one of the best teams in the NFL. 

The Rams are clearly overvalued right now.  They have opened 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS, and everyone seems to be already crowning them Super Bowl champs.  They have won their first three games by double-digits.  However, those three wins came against teams who are now a combined 1-8 in the Raiders, Cardinals and Chargers.  The Vikings will be by far the best team they have faced yet. 

We saw what happened last year when the high-octane Rams’ offense went up against the best defense in the NFL.  The Vikings won that game 24-7 at home as 2-point favorites.  They held the Rams to just 254 total yards and outgained them by nearly 200 yards in the win. 

I think this Vikings offense will get going again here against a Rams defense that is banged up right now.  Two of their key acquisitions this offseason were corners Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters.  Well, both Talib and Peters got injured in their 35-23 win over the Chargers last week.  Talib is for sure out, while Peters is very questionable and unlikely to play. 

Kirk Cousins will be able to dice up this undermanned Los Angeles secondary.  Cousins has certainly lived up to the hype of the big contract thus far.  He is completing 68.3% of his passes for 965 yards with seven touchdowns and only two interceptions through three games this year. 

Mike Zimmer is 9-2 ATS vs. teams who average at least 375 yards per game on offense as the coach of Minnesota.  Zimmer is 20-9 ATS as a dog as the coach of Minnesota.  Zimmer is 45-24 ATS in all games as the coach of the Vikings.  The Vikings are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games following a loss.  I trust Zimmer to have his team ready to put forth a big effort against the Rams in this one.  Bet the Vikings Thursday. 

15* UNC/Miami ACC ANNIHILATOR on North Carolina +18 

Certainly the start to the season was not a good one for North Carolina.  They lost 17-24 at California and were trailing by three touchdowns at one point in their opener.  Then they lost 19-41 at East Carolina as a 15-point favorite. 

But I think those two results had this team undervalued moving forward.  And they pulled off the upset as 3-point home underdogs to Pittsburgh last week.  And that game was a bigger blowout than the final score showed as the Tar Heels outgained the Panthers by 84 yards.  They racked up 486 total yards on a good Pitt defense. 

Miami had a big season last year during its 10-0 start, but it got very lucky in close games.  And the Hurricanes went on to lose their next four games to quality competition, including their 17-33 season-opening loss to LSU.  They have rebounded with three straight wins since, but those have come against Savannah State, Toledo and FIU.  And they only beat FIU 31-17 as 26-point home favorites last week.  Now they’re laying an even bigger price here to UNC as 18-point favorites. 

Plus, this is a UNC team that is going to be vastly improved this week from the simple fact that they get seven players back from suspension who missed the first three games this year.  One of those is sophomore QB Chazz Surratt, who started for them last year.  Senior DE Malik Carney is also back.  He had two sacks against Cal in Week 1 and has had his suspension staggered.  OL Brian Anderson was the No. 12 center in the country coming out of high school.  If nothing else, these seven players will add some depth. 

UNC has clearly had Miami’s number in recent years.  The Tar Heels are just 2-3 SU but 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  They covered as 21-point home underdogs in a 19-24 loss to Miami last year and actually outgained the Hurricanes.  They won outright as 6-point road dogs in 2016 by a final of 20-13 and outgained the Hurricanes by nearly 100 yards.  Larry Fedora and company just seem to get up for Miami every year. 

Plays against home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (Miami) - with a good run D that allows 100 or fewer rushing yards per game, after allowing one or less rushing yards per attempt last game are 42-13 (76.4%) ATS since 1992. 

The Tar Heels are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games after allowing 17 points or more in the first half of two straight games.  Fedora is a perfect 7-0 ATS vs. good punt return teams who average 12 or more yards per return as the coach of UNC.  The Tar Heels are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning record.  UNC is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  The Hurricanes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven conference games.  I simply believe Miami is overvalued right now, while UNC is undervalued.  Take North Carolina Thursday. 

15* Steelers/Bucs ESPN Total DOMINATOR on OVER 53.5 

The Tampa Bay Bucs have been the surprise of the NFL through two weeks.  Not for their defense, but for Ryan Fitzpatrick and the offense.  They are 2-0 behind that offense that scored 48 points against a good Saints defense in Week 1 and followed it up with 27 points against a great Eagles defense in Week 2. 

The Bucs haven’t been able to run the football, so they’ve relied solely on Fitzpatrick, which is great for OVER bettors.  He threw for 417 yards and 4 touchdowns against the Saints in Week 1.  Then he threw for 42 yards and 4 touchdowns with an interception against the Eagles in Week 2.  The Bucs are loaded with weapons at receiver in DeSean Jackson, Mike Evans, O.J. Howard and Chris Godwin.  It’s nice to see this offense living up to their potential. 

The Bucs had one of the worst defenses in the NFL last season.  It appears that hasn’t changed this year, either.  They are giving up 30.5 points and 443.5 yards per game, including 6.8 yards per play thus far.  The Steelers should be able to take advantage and put up a big number here. 

Pittsburgh hasn’t had any problem moving the football on offense this season.  The Steelers are averaging 29.0 points and 473.5 yards per game in their two games against the Chiefs and Browns.  But their defense has been atrocious since losing Ryan Shazier to a season-ending injury last year.  And it has carried over into 2018 as the Steelers are giving up 31.5 points and 388 yards per game this year. 

Star CB Joe Haden missed last week for the Steelers and could be out again this week.  The Bucs are playing without LB Kendell Beckwith and CB Vernon Hargreaves, and they could be without both CB Brent Grimes and DT Vita Vea again this week. 

Plays on the OVER on road teams against the total (Pittsburgh) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, in the first month of the season are 48-19 (71.6%) over the last 10 seasons.  The OVER is 7-1 in Steelers last eight games on grass.  The OVER is 4-1 in Bucs last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday. 

15* Pats/Lions NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 51.5 

Expect plenty of offensive fireworks Sunday night inside the dome at Ford Field between the Patriots and Lions.  This game should see touchdowns in bunches and should easily sail OVER this 51.5-point total.  I rarely take overs this high, but this is a new NFL and this one I believe to be worth it. 

The Lions clearly have a woeful defense again this season.  They are giving up 39 points per game and 6.3 yards per play through two games against the Jets and 49ers.  Offensively, the Lions have no running game again this season, putting everything on Matthew Stafford’s shoulders.  That’s good for OVER bettors.  They are averaging 314 passing yards per game through two games. 

New England has played two tough defenses already to start the season in the Texans and Jaguars.  That’s why the Patriots are only averaging 23.5 points per game thus far.  But the Lions have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and their offense will get right here. 

The problem for the Patriots dating back to the Super Bowl is that their defense just isn’t as good as it has been in year’s past.  They gave up 41 points to the Eagles in the Super Bowl.  Then they gave up 20 to a banged-up Texans offense in Week 1 before allowing a whopping 31 points and 481 yards to a bad Jacksonville offense in Week 2.  Blake Bortles threw for 377 yards and 4 touchdowns on them! 

Detroit is 17-4 OVER in its last 21 home games off a road cover where they lost straight up as an underdog.  Bill Belichick is 14-3 OVER off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite as the coach of the Patriots.  The OVER is 8-2 in Lions last 10 home games.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday night. 

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle Seahawks -1 

Seattle is a team I’ve faded with success each of the first two weeks of the season because I wasn’t very high on them coming into the year.  And I won with the Broncos -2.5 in Week 1 and the Bears -3 in Week 2 going against them.  I thought they were overvalued coming into the year, and I was right.  But I had to sweat out both of those games as they lost by 3 at Denver and by 7 at Chicago, only after a pick-six by the Bears that was the difference. 

Now, after an 0-2 start, I believe the Seahawks to be undervalued this week at home against the Cowboys.  The look-ahead line for this game was Seattle -3 on Monday morning prior to the Bears’ game, and now they are only -1 after the Bears’ game.  There’s some value here because of it.  Their defense played better than I expected last week as they held the Bears to just 271 total yards.  And their offense is moving the ball fine once they get Russell Wilson in up-tempo situations, which I look for them to do more of this week. 

But the key here is that Seattle played its first two games of the season on the road.  Now the Seahawks return home, where the 12th man is the real deal and they are one of the toughest teams in the NFL to beat at home.  Plus, they’ll be highly motivated here for a win with essentially their season on the line.  Look for a big effort from the Seahawks this week. 

The Cowboys come in overvalued here off their 20-13 win over the Giants on Sunday Night Football last week.  But the Giants are clearly a bad team this year.  And this Dallas offense did little after its opening TD drive on a long pass play to Tavon Austin on broken coverage.  Dallas didn’t score until the 4th quarter in Week 1 against the Panthers in an 8-16 loss.  It’s a Dallas offense that is only averaging 14 points and 265 total yards per game thus far. 

Pete Carroll is 10-2 ATS off two or more consecutive losses as the coach of Seattle.  Carroll is 11-2 ATS in September home games as the coach of the Seahawks.  Carroll is 43-26 ATS in all home games as the coach of Seattle.  The Seahawks are 10-4-2 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss.  Take the Seahawks Sunday. 

15* Saints/Falcons NFC South ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans +3 

This is a clear ‘buy low’ opportunity on the New Orleans Saints Sunday as field goal underdogs to the Atlanta Falcons.  There were big expectations for the Saints coming into the season as many felt they were Super Bowl contenders.  And they were priced like it in their first two home games. 

But the Saints fell flat on their faces in Week 1, losing 40-48 to the Tampa Bay Bucs as 10-point favorites.  Then they failed to cover as 9.5-point favorites and were really fortunate to win 21-18 over the Cleveland Browns.  So they basically go from being double-digit favorites two straight weeks to now 3-point underdogs, which is a 13-point adjustment. 

I still think the Saints are one of the best teams in the NFL and that rough start will wake them up moving forward.  And clearly the Bucs are better than they were getting credit for coming into the season because they followed up their win over the Saints with a dominant 27-21 win over the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles in Week 2.  That was a 20-point game before the Eagles made it interesting in the 4th quarter.  And the Browns are better than expected too as they tied the Steelers in OT and gave the Saints all they wanted. 

The Falcons couldn’t beat an undermanned Eagles team in Week 1, losing 12-18 despite being favored on the road.  Then they beat the Panthers 31-24 last week, but it’s worth noting the Panthers were missing several key players along the offensive line, at LB and at TE.  And the Panthers had the ball with a chance to tie in the closing seconds still. 

The Saints are almost fully healthy and will be a tough challenge for the Falcons this week.  I believe the Saints are the better team right now, especially when you consider the significant injuries to the Falcons.  Atlanta is missing two of its best defensive players in S Keanu Neal and LB Deion Jones to season-ending injuries.  The Falcons are also without star RB Devonta Freeman with a knee injury.  I don’t think the Falcons have what it takes to beat the Saints without those three guys, let alone win by margin and cover this 3-point spread. 

Quietly, the Saints have been a better bet on the road than at home over the last few seasons.  Indeed, the Saints are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 road games.  The Falcons are just 5-24 ATS in their last 29 home games off a home win.  In fact, they are losing 19.7 to 24.6 in this spot, or by nearly 5 points per game.  They haven’t been able to follow up success with more success at home.  Roll with the Saints Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Buffalo Bills +17.5 

The Buffalo Bills couldn’t be more undervalued than they are right now.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them after their 0-2 start, which featured a 3-47 loss at Baltimore in Week 1 and a 20-31 home loss to the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 2.  That’s why this spread has been inflated as oddsmakers have no choice but to make it this high in hopes of getting even action on both sides.  The public will still back the Vikings at this massive price, but the sharp money will be on the Bills this week. 

Buffalo at least looked like a competent offense against the Chargers last week with rookie Josh Allen at quarterback.  Allen went 18-of-33 passing for 245 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions, while also rushing for 32 yards on eight carries in the loss.  The Bills were only outgained by 56 yards in that game and were more competitive than the final score would suggest. 

This is the ultimate sandwich game for the Vikings this week.  They are coming off a draining 29-29 tie against the Green Bay Packers in which they probably should have lost in regulation, but then they should have won in OT.  Their kicker let them down and they signed Dan Bailey this week.  But now they can’t help but look ahead to a Thursday night showdown with the Los Angeles Rams on the road next week.  They won’t be giving the Bills their full attention, and as a result it will make it very difficult to cover this 17.5-point spread. 

Buffalo is 53-29 ATS in its last 82 games following two or more consecutive ATS losses.  The price is right to back the Bills this week as 17.5-point underdogs to the Vikings.  You rarely see numbers this big in the NFL.  And the spot couldn’t be worse for the Vikings this week.  Bet the Bills Sunday. 

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Oakland Raiders +3.5 

I love this situation for the Oakland Raiders.  We are getting a motivated 0-2 team up against an fat and happy 2-0 team in the Miami Dolphins.  I’ll back the more motivated team almost every time, especially when I feel the 0-2 team is actually the better squad, which is the case here. 

Oakland had a 13-10 lead over the L.A. Rams before imploding with three second-half turnovers in Week 1.  Oakland had a 12-0 lead over the Broncos before missing an extra points and letting Denver come back in the second half, losing 20-19 on a last-second field goal with the extra point being the difference. 

Well, Denver and the LA Rams have two of the best defenses in the NFL, and the Raiders actually had great success offensively against them.  They had 395 total yards against the Rams and 373 total yards against the Broncos.  They are averaging 384.0 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play on offense.  Derek Carr went 29-of-32 passing for 288 yards and a score against that vaunted Denver pass D last week. 

Not only do I believe the Dolphins are the worst 2-0 team in the NFL right now, they are still among the worst NFL teams in general this season.  They are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers this week as 3.5-point home favorites here against the Raiders.  And they are reading the press clippings and feeling good about themselves.  I think they will fall flat on their faces this week. 

The two wins have come against the Titans and Jets, also two of the worst teams in the NFL.  They survived a seven-hour marathon at home against the Titans in Week 1, and an injury to Marcus Mariota aided their win.  Then last week they were thoroughly outplayed by the Jets, but found a way to win 20-12.  They managed just 257 total yards against the Jets while giving up 362, getting outgained by 105 total yards.  They have simply been fortunate in those two games by forcing a combined six turnovers.  It’s a Miami offense that is averaging just 299.5 yards per game and 5.4 per play this season. 

Oakland is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 road games off a loss by 6 points or less.  Miami is 6-20 ATS in its last 26 games off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog.  John Gruden is 20-8 ATS off a loss by 3 points or less in all games he has coached.  The Dolphins are 16-45-3 ATS in their last 64 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Miami is 4-22 ATS in its last 26 games after allowing more than 250 passing yards in its previous game. 

Plays on road teams (Oakland) - off a loss to a division rival, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with three or more straight losses are 39-15 (72.2%) ATS since 1993.  We are buying low on Oakland and selling high on Miami this week.  Bet the Raiders Sunday. 

15* Eastern Michigan/SDSU Late-Night BAILOUT on Eastern Michigan +12 

This is a very bad spot for the San Diego State Aztecs.  They are getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers now after their upset win over Arizona State last week.  But it was a Sun Devils team in a flat spot off their own upset win over Michigan State the week prior.  And now SDSU won’t be able to help but look ahead to their huge showdown with Boise State on deck.  This is the classic sandwich game, and I expect the Aztecs to be flatter than a pancake.  That will make it very difficult for them to cover this 12-point spread, let alone win the game. 

Eastern Michigan has flown under the radar over the past few seasons under Chris Creighton.  The Eagles made their first bowl game since 1987 in 2016 and went 7-6.  They were better than their 5-7 record showed last year.  And now they have 13 starters back this season and have already outperformed expectations. 

Eastern Michigan opened with a resounding 51-17 win over Monmouth.  Then they went on the road in Week 2 and upset Purdue 20-19 as 15-point underdogs.  Last week they were on the road again and lost to a very good Buffalo team 28-35 as 3-point dogs.  But they weren’t overmatched in that game as they actually outgained Buffalo in that contest.  I had Buffalo last week and had to sweat that one out. 

That’s the thing about this Eagles squad, they just don’t get blown out.  In fact, each of their last 10 losses have come by 12 points or less, including nine by 7 points or fewer.  And each of their last 14 losses have come by 15 points or less.  They aren’t going to be intimidated by this San Diego State squad after beating the likes of Rutgers and Purdue on the road over the past few seasons. 

Eastern Michigan is 8-0 ATS when playing against a good team with a winning percentage between 60% and 75% over the last three seasons.  The Eagles are 10-2 ATS as road underdogs over the last three years.  Eastern Michigan is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 non-conference games.  The Eagles are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  The Aztecs are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Eastern Michigan Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on East Carolina +21 

South Florida is being priced like the team that went a combined 21-4 over the previous two seasons.  But that team was loaded, and Charlie Strong now has mostly his players instead of Willie Taggart’s.  And Strong has an inexperienced bunch that returned just 11 starters this season.  I have not been impressed with USF thus far, and they certainly shouldn’t be laying three touchdowns to East Carolina here Saturday. 

USF opened with an underwhelming 34-14 win over Elon as 27.5-point favorites.  Their 49-38 home win over Georgia Tech as 3.5-point dogs in Week 2 was a fluke.  They were outgained by 176 yards and gave up 602 yards to the Yellow Jackets, trailing through three quarters and needing a miracle finish to pull off the upset.  Then last week they trailed by 12 in the fourth quarter against a bad Illinois team and needed to score the final 17 points to win 24-19 as 14-point favorites. 

Scottie Montgomery is in Year 3 at East Carolina, which is when teams usually show their most improvement under a new head coach.  And I think it’s safe to say this team is Montgomery’s best yet after upsetting North Carolina 41-19 as 15-point underdogs in Week 2, covering the spread by 37 points.  They racked up 510 total yards and held the Tar Heels to 395 in a dominant effort. 

Now the Pirates have had two full weeks to prepare for South Florida after their game against Virginia Tech was cancelled last week.  Look for a big effort from them because of it.  And they have a knack for playing South Florida tough.  Four of the last five meetings have been decided by 17 points or less.  In their last two trips to USF, ECU lost by 16 but only trailed by 2 with under seven minutes left in 2016.  And they won outright 28-17 back in 2014.  I believe the Pirates will  keep this one closer than expected.  Take East Carolina Saturday.

15* Stanford/Oregon ABC ANNIHILATOR on Stanford -2 

This used to be a great rivalry with Stanford and Oregon trading blows every year back when Chip Kelly around.  But that’s no longer the case.  Stanford has dominated the last two meetings.  They won 52-27 on the road as 3-point favorites in 2016.  They won 49-7 at home as 9.5-point favorites last year. 

Now, Stanford is only a 2-point favorite in 2018 as oddsmakers are expecting a close game.  I’m just not seeing it.  Stanford is a legit contender to win the Pac-12.  The Cardinal have been tested already and have passed with flying colors. 

The Cardinal beat San Diego State 31-10 as 14-point home favorites.  They shut down USC 17-3 as 4.5-point home favorites as well.  So, they have been battle-tested, and it’s clear they have an elite defense.  Offensively, star RB Bryce Love sat out last week and is now healthy and fresh for this huge game against Oregon.  He will easily have his best game of the season here. 

No team has faced an easier schedule than Oregon through the first three weeks.  They beat Bowling Green in the opener.  Then they beat Portland State, an FCS team that is 1-13 dating back to last season.  Most concerning was Oregon’s 35-22 home win over San Jose State as 42.5-point favorites last week.   

That mere 13-point win is a big concern considering San Jose State is one of the worst teams in the country. Now, the Ducks won’t be prepared to get smacked in the mouth like they will against Stanford this week due to their lack of competition up to this point.  It’s going to be a big eye-opener for them. 

This is also a big coaching mismatch with David Shaw over Mario Cristobal.  I believe Cristobal is in over his head here.  Also, Autzen Stadium isn’t what it once was back when Oregon was actually good.  Stanford is 21-8-1 ATS in its last 30 games following an ATS loss.  The Cardinal are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  The Ducks are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a win.   

Cristobal is 0-7 ATS in home games off a home game in all games he has coached.  Oregon is 0-6 ATS after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game over the past two seasons.  The Ducks are 0-7 ATS vs. teams who commit one or fewer turnovers per game over the last three seasons.  Oregon is 1-9 ATS versus good offensive teams that average 5.9 or more yards per play over the last three years.  Stanford is 6-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 5.9 or more yards per play over the last two seasons.  These last five trends combine for a 35-1 system backing the Cardinal.  Bet Stanford Saturday.