20* Vikings/Bears ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Minnesota -4

The Minnesota Vikings are hungry to bounce back from their first loss of the season.  They fell 10-21 on the road to the Philadelphia Eagles last week.  After committing just one turnover through the first five games, the Vikings gave the ball away four time against the Eagles to essentially hand them the victory.  They also allowed a kickoff return TD.

The Vikings are No. 1 in the NFL with 16 takeaways, getting nine interceptions and seven fumble recoveries.  They lead the NFL in turnover differential (plus-11) and total defense (279.5 yards/game).  They are also tied for No. 1 in scoring defense (14.0 points/game).

Now the Vikings will be up against a Chicago team that is just 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in this season.  The Bears rank last in the NFL in scoring at 15.9 points per game.  They are expected to start Jay Cutler at quarterback, but that's only because Brian Hoyer got hurt in a 10-26 loss at Green Bay last time out.  I don't believe the team totally supports Cutler, either.

Minnesota has won three straight and five of its past seven meetings with Chicago.  The Vikings are 19-4 ATS in all games over the past two seasons.  Minnesota is 6-0 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a losing record.  The Bears are 8-24-1 ATS in their last 33 home games.  Bet the Vikings Monday.

15* Packers/Falcons Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta -3

The Atlanta Falcons are tired of hearing about how they started 5-0 last season, only to fall apart the rest of the way and finish 8-8.  They believe they are a different team this season, but they've been hearing their naysayers all week leading up to this game against the Green Bay Packers.

Because they have lost two in a row, everyone in the media is panicking.  But those two losses came by a combined five points to the Seahawks and Chargers.  If not for a blown pass interference call, they would have beaten the Seahawks.  And they lost in overtime last week after failing to convert a fourth-and-1 from their own side of the field in overtime.

I think this is going to be a circle-the-wagons game for the Falcons here to avoid having the same fate as last season.  The players are going to want to win this game for their head coach in Dan Quinn, who took a gamble on that 4th-and-1 play, and the players really have to appreciate him putting their trust in them in that situation.  Matt Ryan and company will respond in a big way.

The Falcons have the best offense in the NFL.  They are averaging 32.7 points, 434 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play.  All are the best marks in the league.  They are outgaining opponents by 1.2 yards per play as well, which is also tops in the NFL.  Unlike last year, the numbers show that this is an elite team, and they already have wins over the two Super Bowl teams from last year in the Broncos and Panthers.

The Packers still aren't right offensively this season.  They are only averaging 344 yards per game and 5.3 per play against opponents that average 347 yards per game and 5.5 per play.  They have no running game to speak of with Eddy Lacy out, and he wasn't even effective when he was in there.  There's just too much pressure right now on Aaron Rodgers to do everything for him, and he hasn't handled it very well.

And this is a terrible matchup for the Packers' defense.  They are giving up 7.3 yards per pass attempt and now must face a Falcons offense that is averaging 319 passing yards per play and a sensational 9.2 per attempt.  Making matters worst for the Packers is that they are still without their top two corners in Sam Shield and Damarious Randall, and they could be without a third in Quinten Rollins, who is questionable with a groin injury.  Not to mention, top pass rusher Clay Matthews is questionable with a hamstring injury.  I just don't foresee the Packers getting many stops this week.

Dan Quinn is 8-1 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards per play in their previous game as the coach of Atlanta.  The Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs a team with a winning record.  Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Roll with the Falcons Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New England Patriots -6.5

This line has already moved from -4.5 to -6.5 and I agree with the move.  And I wouldn't be surprise to see it get to -7 before game-time, so I would recommend betting it early.

The Patriots have been hitting on all cylinders since Tom Brady returned from his four-game suspension.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS with three straight double-digits wins, and they are an impressive 6-1 ATS on the season.  I think they make it four wins in a row this week.

The Patriots want revenge from their only loss of the season, a 16-0 shutout home loss to the Bills in Week 4.  But banged-up third-stringer Jacoby Brissett started that game and did not play well.  Having Brady back will make all the difference this week.

The Bills were getting a lot of love for winning four straight prior to last week.  But their four wins all came with asterisks in my opinion.  They beat the Cardinals, who committed five turnovers to give the game away.  Then they beat Brissett and the short-handed Pats.  Then they beat the Rams, who were missing three starting defensive linemen.  And they also beat the worthless 49ers with Colin Kaepernick making his first start.

But the Bills lost 25-28 on the road to the Dolphins last week in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  The Bills were outgained by 187 yards by the Dolphins, and they gave up over 200 yards rushing.

Now the roles are reversed in the rematch and it's the Bills who have all kinds of injury issues to skill position players.  LeSean McCoy re-aggravated his hamstring injury last week and is doubtful to play.  Top receiver Sammy Watkins has been out for a while.  But the next two best receivers are Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin.

Goodwin is doubtful to play this week after suffering an injury against the Dolphins, and Woods is questionable.  I just don't see how the Bills are going to move the football considering the Patriots can stack the box to stop the run, and they won't have to deal with McCoy.  I don't see Tyrod Taylor having much success through the air with all of the weapons he's missing.  He's been practicing with new faces at receiver all week.

The Patriots have never lost twice in the same season to a division opponent.  They are 18-3 ATS when playing with revenge against a division opponent in their last 21 chances.  New England is also 11-1 SU & 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road meetings with Buffalo.  A whopping 10 of those wins have come by 7 points or more as well.  New England will win this one by at least a TD, and likely double-digits this week.  Take the Patriots Sunday.

20* NFL GAME OF THE MONTH on Carolina Panthers -2.5

The Carolina Panthers are much better than their 1-5 record would indicate.  Remember, this is a team that went 15-1 last season and made the Super Bowl.  But now the Panthers are being way undervalued right now due to their poor start.

The bye week came at a great time for the Panthers as they needed it to get healthy.  Now they are near full strength entering this game.  And the Panthers are looking at these last 10 games as a completely new season.  The fact of the matter is that they are only three games back in the division and can still make a run at the division title.  So all of their goals are still in front of them.

The biggest difference for the Panthers this season is that they've lost the turnover battle.  After going +20 in turnover differential last season, they are -8 in turnover differential this season.  That has been a focal point during the bye week, and I look for Cam Newton and company to take much better care of the football going forward.

A big reason I say the Panthers are better than their record is because they have actually outgained four of their six opponents this season.  Three of their five losses have come by 3 points or less as well, and they outgained two of those opponents.  They missed a game-winning field goal attempt against Denver, gave away the game against the Bucs with four turnovers, and lost on a last-second field goal against the Saints.

The Arizona Cardinals are in a terrible spot here.  They are tired from their overtime tie against the Seahawks on Sunday Night.  Now this is a West Coast team traveling out East for an early 10:00 AM start.  And teams are just 34-59 ATS after playing the Seahawks the week prior.  That was a physical game that will have taken a lot out of them, while the Panthers are fresh off their bye, making this the perfect situation for the home team.

Don't forget how badly the Panthers beat the Cardinals in the NFC Championship Game last year.  They won that game 49-15 while outgaining the Cardinals 476 to 287, or by 189 total yards.  Carson Palmer went just 23 of 40 for 235 yards with one touchdown and four interceptions in the loss.  And Palmer looks really washed up this season as age and injuries appear to finally be catching up to him.

Arizona is 0-7 ATS after allowing nine points or less last game over the past three seasons.  It is coming back to lose these games by an average of 12.3 points per game.  Carolina is 11-2 ATS in home games after playing its last game on the road over the past three seasons.  The Panthers are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 home games versus good offensive teams that average 375 or more yards per game.

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ARIZONA) - after allowing 6 points or less last game against opponent after a loss by 3 or less points are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS since 1983.  The Panthers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games with Cam Newton at quarterback.  Newton is healthy after missing 1.5 games earlier this season and will lead the Panthers to a season-saving victory here.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New Mexico State +44

This play is almost exclusively about motivation, or lack thereof, for the Texas A&M Aggies.  They just played their 'Game of the Year' against Alabama last week, and they're not going to be motivated at all to face New Mexico State this week.  I look for them to suffer a big hangover here, and for them to fail to cover this massive 44-point spread because of it.

Not only is it a flat spot for the Aggies, but you know that Kevin Sumlin isn't going to be concerned with playing his starters for much more than a half if they get up big early.  So New Mexico State will have a chance to play close to an even game in the second half against Texas A&M's backups if the game gets away from them early.

Admittedly, New Mexico State is one of the worst teams in college football, but I actually like the direction that head coach Doug Martin has this team headed.  We've seen New Mexico State beat a very solid New Mexico team that made a bowl last year and is likely headed to a bowl again this year.  They were 11-point dogs in that game.  They also beat LA Lafayette 37-31 as 5-point dogs.

Some will look at the 52-6 loss to Troy and say that Texas A&M is the right side.  But a closer look shows that New Mexico State actually outgained Troy by 47 yards in that game, but gave it away by committing five turnovers.  And that's the same Troy team that nearly beat Clemson earlier this season.  It was one of the most misleading final scores of the season.

I was really impressed with New Mexico State's 19-22 home loss to Georgia Southern as 13.5-point dogs last week.  The Aggies actually outgained the Eagles by 21 yards in that game.  Georgia Southern is one of the better non-Power 5 teams in the country.

What gives New Mexico State a chance to hang around in this game is their offense.  If I'm going to take a big dog like this, I like to know that they can at least score, and New Mexico State can.  It is actually averaging 432 yards per game against opponents that allow 406 yards per game, so this is actually an above-average offense.

New Mexico State features a passing attack that actually produces 300 yards per game.  Senior quarterback Tyler Rogers has thrown for 2,008 yards with 11 touchdowns and 7.2 yards per attempt.  After missing the first three games due to injury, senior RB Larry Rose III has returned to rush for 281 yards over the past four weeks.  He has 12 receptions for 86 yards as well.

Texas A&M's defense gets a lot of hype for its improvement, but the numbers show that the Aggies are just a middle-of-the-pack defense.  They give up 439 yards per game and 262 passing yards per game.  Rogers should find plenty of success through the air to put up enough points to stay within this 44-point spread.

Plays against any team (TEXAS A&M) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival, top level team, winning 80% or more of their games on the season are 71-35 (67%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Aggies are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss.  Texas A&M is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  

Kevin Sumlin is 0-8 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference opponent as the coach of Texas A&M.  Sumlin has his work cut out for him this week.  The players realize their dreams of winning the SEC West are crushed after that loss to Alabama.  Beating New Mexico State isn't going to change that.  I don't expect Texas A&M to show up at all here.  Take New Mexico State Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State +6.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are in a great spot here.  They are coming off their bye week, and they'll be fresh and ready to go Saturday at home against Kansas State.  They'll also be motivated for their first Big 12 win of the season, and this is clearly their best chance to get it as Kansas State is one of the worst teams in the conference.

Keep in mind that Iowa State nearly beat Baylor and Oklahoma State a few weeks back.  The Cyclones blew a 42-28 lead in the fourth quarter as 17-point home dogs to Baylor and lost 42-45 on a last second field goal.  They led 31-14 as 14-point road dogs at Oklahoma State and gave up 24 unanswered points to lose 31-38.

Those two performances really showed what they were capable of.  And the next week they were leading Texas 6-3 on the road at halftime, but ran out of gas and lost 27-6.  The bye week couldn't have come at a better time because the Cyclones really needed it to rest and get healthy.  They won't be running out of gas this week against Kansas State as they'll be ready for a big performance for four quarters.

That's especially the case considering they want revenge from last year's 35-38 road loss at Kansas State.  They led that game 35-14 and gave up 24 unanswered points over the final two quarters.  They fumbled with under two minutes to go when they could have kneeled on the ball and won.  Kansas State took advantage and tied it with 42 seconds to go, then capitalized on another turnover and won it on a 42-yard field goal with 3 seconds left.

Kansas State's numbers in conference games have been horrible.  Despite going 2-2 straight up, they have actually been outgained 340.2 to 467.0 in conference play, or by an average of nearly 127 yards per game.  Their offense is only averaging 352 yards per game and 5.4 per play on the season against teams that give up 422 yards per game and 6.1 per play.  Their offense just doesn't allow them to win in blowouts, which is why the 6.5-point spread could easily come into play.

The head-to-head history in this series also shows that there's a ton of value with the home dog.  Indeed, seven of the last eight meetings have been decided by a touchdown or less.  The sick part about that is that Kansas State has won all eight.  The Cyclones are tired of it, and they finally should be able to do something about it this year now that they are in a great spot coming off their bye week.

The underdog is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Wildcats are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five meetings at Iowa State.  The Cyclones are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  First-year head coach Matt Campbell will have used this bye week to correct the mistakes, and I look for the Cyclones to continue to be a good bet moving forward, especially this week.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Purdue +13.5

I had five premium picks last Saturday, and Purdue and Penn State were two of them.  Purdue covered as 24-point dogs at Nebraska, while Penn State won outright as 19.5-point dogs against Ohio State.  So I feel like I have a good grasp on both of these teams.

This is the ultimate letdown spot for Penn State off that big win over Ohio State.  The Nittany Lions have been getting patted on the back all week, and now I look for them to fall flat against Purdue here.  Keep in mind that Ohio State outgained Penn State by 94 yards in that game and should have won.  The Nittany Lions were the right side as 19.5-point dogs, but they should not have won outright as it took a miracle blocked FG returned for a TD.

James Franklin wasn't concerned with looking ahead to this game as he wanted to relish in the moment.  "Obviously these types of wins are important," Franklin said. "To be honest with you, I don't want to spend a lot of time thinking about the big picture right now, I just want to soak this all in. Nights like this don't happen very often."

I really like what I've seen from Purdue the past three games.  They won outright as 9-point underdogs at Illinois, they scored 35 points and put up over 500 yards of offense against Iowa in a 14-point loss, and they actually led Nebraska 14-10 on the road at halftime last week before losing by 13, easily covering as 24-point dogs.

Boilermaker quarterback David Blough leads the Big Ten in completions (173) and yards (2,065) and has already thrown 14 touchdown passes.  Senior receiver DeAngelo Yancey is coming off a big game against Nebraska with four catches for 100 yards and a pair of touchdowns.  And the defense held Nebraska to just 27 points, including 157 rushing yards on 37 carries, which equates to 4.2 per carry.  It was their most impressive defensive performance yet.

Clearly the switch to interim head coach Gerad Parker last week has rejuvenated the Boilermakers.  He has instilled a more positive, upbeat approach.  I liked what he had to say after the narrow loss to Nebraska, and the fact of the matter is that at 3-4, the Boilermakers could legitimately still make a run at a bowl game.

"It was a fun run. We have to take that and build off of that so we become that same team the second half," Parker said. "It was a fun ride. You could see the belief in those kids' eyes. I think they know they let one fall through here. That's how they feel. It's going to be fun to coach them the rest of the weeks to try to get them to this point where they keep believing."

Penn State has benefited from playing three straight home games, all of which they have won, two of which have come by a field goal.  The other was a blowout win over a Maryland team that lost starting quarterback Perry Hills and could never recover.

But the Nittany Lions are 0-2 on the road this season, losing at Pittsburgh and at Michigan by 39 points.  In fact, they have lost their last seven true road games dating back to a November 18, 2014 victory at Indiana.  This team has been an awful road bet for years, and now they're being asked to lay nearly two touchdowns away from Happy Vally.

Penn State has only covered the spread in 3 of its last 19 road games.  It is 0-8 ATS on the road over the past three seasons alone.  Purdue is 7-0 ATS after gaining 100 or fewer rushing yards last game over the past two seasons.  The Boilermakers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a loss.

Plays on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (PURDUE) - after two or more consecutive straight up losses, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS since 1992.  Roll with Purdue Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia +33

The Louisville Cardinals are getting way too much love from the betting public right now.  This line actually opened at -25.5 and has jumped nearly 8 points to -33.  I felt the opener was about right, but now we're getting all kinds of value here with Virginia catching 33 at home.

Many think Louisville needs style points to make the four-team playoff, and while that is somewhat true, it's also overblown.  What is the difference between a 21-point win and a 35-point win against Virginia in the eyes of the playoff committee? The answer is not much at all, and it's more realistic that they win by 21 than 35.

I also think that the Cardinals are even more overvalued this week due to their 54-13 win over NC State last week.  But that was an awful spot for NC State, which was coming off a devastating overtime loss at Clemson.  The Wolfpack missed a short field goal that would have won that game.  They came out flat against Louisville and got pummeled.

Virginia is not going to come out flat.  It is looking forward to this opportunity to play one of the top teams in the country at home.  And I think the Cavaliers are being undervalued due to their 14-35 loss to UNC as 10.5-point dogs last week.  This line (-33) implies that Louisville is 23 points better than UNC, and I just don't think that's the case.

And that performance against UNC was by far the worst for Virginia in weeks.  In the four prior games, Virginia outgained UConn by 104 yards in a 10-13 road loss, beat Central Michigan 49-35 at home, won 34-20 at Duke, and outgained Pitt by 18 yards in a 31-45 loss that was a misleading final.  Pitt got two non-offensive touchdowns in that game and only gained 346 yards of offense.

Virginia had poor teams the past two years, yet still played Louisville tough.  The Cavaliers only lost 31-38 as 13.5-point road dogs at Louisville last year.  They also won outright 23-21 as 4-point home dogs in 2014.

Plays on underdogs of 31.5 or more points (VIRGINIA) - after failing to cover the spread in two out of their last three games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 46-17 (73%) ATS since 1992.  This system has actually gone a perfect 9-0 ATS over the past five seasons.

Virginia is 12-3 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons, only losing by 7.3 points per game on average.  The Cavaliers are 6-0 ATS after being outgained by 125 or more yards in their previous game over the past three seasons.  Virginia is 7-2 ATS in its last nine conference games.  The Cavaliers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  Take Virginia Saturday.

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Michigan State +24.5

For starters, this is the biggest underdog that the Michigan State Spartans have been in this rivalry with the Michigan Wolverines since 1992.  Secondly, 22 of the last 23 meetings have been decided by 24 points or less.  Those two facts alone show you just how much value there is on Michigan State here.

The betting public has bet Michigan from from -18.5 all the way up to -24.5 as of this writing on Thursday.  This is the perfect storm as the Wolverines could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now, while the Spartans couldn't be more undervalued heading into this game.

I always look to bet underdogs in rivalry games first, especially home underdogs.  But when these home dogs are getting more than 20 points, it's really a no-brainer.  I don't care what Michigan State has done to this point, the Spartans will show up for this game, and Mark Dantonio will have them ready to go.

The Spartans are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games.  They have been favored in all five games, and the betting public has been killed by backing them, so they want nothing to do with them now.  But they weren't outplayed in any of those losses outside of BYU as they outgained two opponents and were only outgained by 15 and 21 yards in their two other losses.

In their only games as underdogs this season, the Spartans won outright 36-28 as 7.5-point road dogs at Notre Dame.  Dantonio absolutely relishes the role of the dog, and he takes this rivalry with Michigan very personally ever since they were called the 'little brother' several years ago.  He relays that message to his players as well.

Michigan State has risen to the occasion against Michigan over the past decade.  The Spartans are 7-1 SU and a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight meetings with Michigan.  Their only loss came by a final of 10-12 in 2012 as 8.5-point road dogs.  The Spartans have won each of their last four home meetings with the Wolverines, including the last three in blowout fashion by 24, 23 and 14 points.

The Game of the Year line on this game released before the season was Michigan -2.  So this is a 22.5-point adjustment.  I agree that the Wolverines should be favored by more than 2 now after what we've seen, but this is too big of an adjustment.  I fully expect Michigan to win the game, but not by more than 24.5 points.

The Wolverines haven't been tested on the road yet.  Their only road game came against Rutgers, and Rutgers is the worst team in the Big Ten.  They've hardly been tested at all, really, because their schedule has been so soft.  The best team they played was Wisconsin, and they only beat them 14-7 at home.

Keep in mind that Michigan State actually outgained Wisconsin despite losing by 24 in what was a very misleading final.  This will be Michigan's biggest test of the season to this point in my opinion, especially since it's on the road.

Dantonio is 6-0 ATS vs good passing defenses that allow 150 or fewer passing yards per game as the coach of Michigan State.  The Spartans have never lost int his situation under Dantonio.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

15* Navy/USF ESPN 2 Friday No-Brainer on Navy +6.5

The Navy Midshipmen have been one of the most underrated teams in college football last season. Many thought they would take a big step back with the loss of Keenan Reynolds, and then their opening day starting QB Tago Smith, but that simply has not been the case. Ken Niumatalolo has done a tremendous job.

Navy is off to a 5-1 start this season with its only loss coming on the road at Air Force. The last two games have really shown what the Midshipmen are capable of. They beat Houston 46-40 as 16-point home underdogs, and Memphis 42-28 as 1.5-point home favorites. Both Houston and Memphis were among the favorites to win the AAC this season.

The Midshipmen rushed for 306 yards against Houston and 447 yards against Memphis. Senior QB Will Worth has been phenomenal. He has rushed for a combined 316 yards over the past two games and four touchdowns, while also throwing four touchdown passes through the air without an interception.

South Florida is one of the most overrated teams in the conference. That was evident last week in a 30-46 loss at Temple as 5.5-point favorites. The Bulls were thoroughly outplayed in that game as the Owls outgained them by 179 yards. I have a feeling this team is running out of gas.

South Florida hasn’t had a bye week yet. The Bulls have played 8 straight weeks to open the season, and this will be their 9th straight. They showed signs of wearing down against Temple last week. Meanwhile, Navy has only played six games this season, so it is clearly the fresher team right now. And the Midshipmen had a bye before playing Memphis last week.

Making matters worse is that the injuries are piling up for the Bulls because of this brutal schedule to open the season without a bye week.  Quarterback Quinton Flowers suffered a hamstring injury last week against Temple, and even though he's expected to play tonight, he's not going to be the same dual-threat QB he normally is as he'll be operating at much less than 100%.  The Midshipmen won't have to worry about his legs as much as they would have otherwise.

This is a very bad matchup for the Bulls, who are giving up 206 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry this season. They allowed 319 rushing yards to Temple last week and 478 to Florida State earlier this season. The Midshipmen average 293 yards per game and 5.3 per carry on the ground. They will try to break USF’s will this week and test their stamina with their triple-option attack.

Navy dominated South Florida in a 29-17 home victory last season. The Midshipmen racked up 444 total yards, including 428 rushing. They held the Bulls to just 270 total yards, outgaining them by 174 yards in the win.

The Midshipmen are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games versus poor rush defenses that allow 200 or more yards per game. Navy is 19-6-1 ATS in its last 26 games following a win. The Midshipmen are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Take Navy Friday.

15* Jags/Titans AFC South ANNIHILATOR on Jacksonville +3.5

The Jaguars have been abysmal at home this season, but they have played their best on the road.  They are 2-1 away from home with a win over the Colts in London, as well as a 17-16 win at Chicago.  For whatever reason, they just don't play well in front of their home fans, and it's probably because the boo birds are quick to come out.

The same can be said for the Titans, who have been atrocious at home over the past few years.  They are just 1-3 at home this season with their only win coming by a final of 28-26 over the Cleveland Browns, who are the only winless team left in the NFL.

In fact, the Titans are just 2-9 ATS at home over the past two seasons, getting outscored by 8.4 points per game on average.  They are 14-34-3 ATS in their last 51 home games as well.  Time and time again their home-field advantage has been overrated, and I believe that is the case again here with this 3.5-point spread in a game that could easily be decided by a field goal or less.

The numbers indicate the Jaguars are better than their record.  They are averaging 5.4 yards per play on offense and giving up only 4.9 yards per play on defense.  They actually rank 9th in the NFL in yards per play differential.  They have also outgained four of their six opponents this season.  If they can just cut down on the turnovers, this team will get better results in the win column going forward.

The Tennessee Titans are a slightly below-average team as they average 5.8 yards per play on offense, but give up 5.9 yards per play on defense.  They are getting outgained by 0.1 yards per play on the season.  I believe yards per play stats are some of the most important in the NFL, and they clearly favor the Jaguars, especially defensively.  The Jags rank 9th in the NFL in total defense and 4th in yards per play allowed.

The Titans are only averaging 218 passing yards per game, so they have been relying heavily on a rushing attack that produces 143 yards per game and 4.9 per carry.  Well, the Jaguars have been solid against the run, giving up 110 yards per game on average and only 3.9 per carry.

The Jaguars have been relying on moving the football through the air, and the Titans give up 251 passing yards per game and 7.2 per attempt this season, which is clearly the weakness of their defense.  Blake Bortles threw for 322 yards and five touchdowns without an interception in last season's 39-42 loss at Tennessee.

Tennessee is 0-10 ATS after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games over the last three seasons.  The Titans are 1-12 ATS vs. AFC South opponents over the last three seasons.  Tennessee is 0-7 ATS vs. poor teams who are outscored by 6-plus points per game on the season over the last three years.  These three trends combine for a 29-1 system backing Jacksonville.  Take the Jaguars Thursday.

20* VA Tech/Pitt ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 61

This total just seems inflated to me because Pittsburgh has been a great over bet this season, going over the total in six straight games.  I look for them to be a great under bet going forward now that oddsmakers have over-adjusted.

Pat Narduzzi built his reputation on defense after serving as Michigan State's defensive coordinator for so many years.  You can bet that he is not liking what he's seeing out of the defense thus far.  And there's no question that defense was the focal point of the Panthers over the past two weeks as they had a bye last week.

That extra time and preparation from the bye week should work wonders for the Panthers' defense here.  And this defense has actually been improving of late as the points given up have been a bit skewed.  The Panthers are giving up 30.7 points per game over their last three games despite only giving up 359.7 yards per game.

Virginia Tech's defense has been elite all season.  The Hokies are only giving up 17.9 points, 302 yards per game and 4.4 per play against opponents that average 26.4 points, 398 yards per game and 5.5 per play.  So, they are holding foes to 8.5 points, 96 yards per game and 1.1 yards per play less than their season averages.

Both teams love to run the football, and both are stout against the run, making this a great matchup for both defenses.  VA Tech averages 48 rushing attempts per game compared to 29 pass attempts.  Pitt averages 47 rush attempts per game compared to 23 pass attempts.  These run-heavy approaches should keep the clock moving, which also favors the UNDER.

The Hokies average 198 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry, but the strength of the Panthers defense is stopping the run as they give up only 97 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry.  The Panthers average 239 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry, but the Hokies only allow 104 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry.

The head-to-head history between these teams really stood out to me.  Pitt and VA Tech have combined for 52 or fewer points in their last four meetings over the past four seasons.  They have combined for 30, 37, 28 and 52 points in the past four meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 36.8 combined points per game, which is roughly 25 points less than this total of 61.

VA Tech is 6-0 UNDER in road games against conference opponents over the last two seasons.  The Hokies are 10-1 UNDER in road games after the first month of the season over the last three years.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Hokies last six road games.  The UNDER is 6-2 in Panthers last eight games following a bye week.  The UNDER is 34-16-1 in Hokies last 51 conference games.  The UNDER is 19-7 in Hokies last 26 Thursday games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

Note: I released this UNDER 61 as soon as the total came out on Monday.  I figured it would move, and it has.  It's now down to 57 as of Tuesday afternoon.  I still recommend a 20* play on the UNDER all the way down to 55, so keep that in mind.

20* Texans/Broncos ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Denver -7.5

The Denver Broncos enter this game hungry for a victory.  They have lost two straight to the Falcons and Chargers after opening the season 4-0.  Look for them to put their best foot forward this week for a number of reasons and to ultimately cover this 7.5-point spread.

The Broncos had a couple issues that held them back the past few weeks.  They had to start a rookie QB in Paxton Lynch against the Falcons after Trevor Siemian was out with a shoulder injury.  Siemian returned to face the Chargers last week, but head coach Gary Kubiak missed the game due to an illness, and the offense clearly missed his play-calling.

This is also a great spot for the Broncos in terms of rest and preparation.  They have a mini-bye week since they played last Thursday against San Diego.  Meanwhile, the Texans needed overtime to beat the Colts after erasing a 23-9 deficit at home with two touchdowns in the final three minutes.

Houston is 4-0 at home this season, but 0-2 on the road losing to the Patriots and Vikings by a combined score of 13-58.  Their offense has been atrocious away from home, putting up just 6.5 points, 249 total yards per game and 4.0 yards per play.

I simply do not trust this Texans' offense.  Their offense ranks fourth-worst in the NFL averaging less than 5 yards per play.  The culprit has been Brock Osweiler and the passing game, which ranks third-worst in the NFL at 5.4 yards per pass play.

Now Houston will be up against an elite Denver defense that is only yielding 4.7 yards per play, second-best in football. The Broncos rank 1st in the NFL against the pass (182.3 yards/game) and 1st in sacks (21).  Their defense will shut down the Texans and lead them to victory here.

I also expect the Broncos' offense to get on track with Kubiak back calling the plays, and a healthy Siemian at quarterback.  And I expect the running game to get going against a Houston defense that ranks 29th in the NFL against the run, giving up 126 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry.

Plays on favorites (DENVER) - off a road loss, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 44-19 (69.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The favorite won by an average of 11.9 points per game over this span.  Denver is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six home games, while Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Broncos Monday.

20* Patriots/Steelers AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh +7

The New England Patriots are the biggest public team in the NFL.  Now that they've won and covered two straight games over the Browns and Bengals since Tom Brady's return, the public is supporting them at an alarming rate.

Nearly 90% of the bets placed have been on the Patriots in this game, yet the line has dropped from -7.5 down to -7, and I can see it dropping even further before game-time.  That's because the big money is on the Steelers, and I agree 100% that it should be.

This line was pick 'em when prior to last week's games on the advanced line.  That was with a healthy Ben Roethlisberger, but now that he's out, the oddsmakers have adjusted this line a full 7 points.  No player in the NFL is worth 7 points on the spread, not even Roethlisberger or Brady.  So there's clearly value here with the Steelers with that fact alone.

I'm not concerned with backing Landry Jones.  He has had a full week to prepare to be the starter, and I expect him to be much more comfortable in front of his home crowd.  Plus, he has the luxury of arguably the best weapons in the NFL around him, which will make his job a lot easier.

I fully expect Mike Tomlin and Todd Haley to ride Le'Veon Bell in this one.  Bell only got 10 carries against Miami last week, and you can bet that he wasn't happy about it.  This game plan will be revolved around getting Bell the football and possessing the rock, keeping New England's offense off the field.  It will work, too.

After missing the past two games, LB Ryan Shazier is expected to return for the Steelers.  They have really missed him because he does so many things for this defense.  His speed allows him to cover backs out of the backfield, and the Patriots love to use their backs as receivers.  In fact, James White caught eight balls with two of them going for touchdowns last week for the Bengals, so Shazier figures to eliminate that threat this week for the Patriots.

The Steelers are clearly undervalued right now after their 15-30 loss at Miami, just like they were following their 3-34 loss at Philadelphia earlier this season.  All they did the following week was bounce back with a 43-14 home win over Kansas City as 3-point favorites.  I was all over the Steelers in that game as my 25* NBC Sunday Night GAME OF THE YEAR, and I'm all over them here, too.

After all, the Steelers have been absolutely dominant at home, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS.  They are scoring 32.7 points per game and giving up 14.3 points per game at home, outscoring opponents by 18.4 points per game on average.

The Steelers are 6-0 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game over the last three seasons.  They are bouncing back to win by 22.1 points per game on average.  Pittsburgh is 6-0 ATS in home games after allowing 400 or more total yards in its previous game over the last three seasons.  It is bouncing back to win by 20.8 points per game on average.  The Steelers are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 vs. excellent passing teams who average 7.5 or more yards per attempt.  Take the Steelers Sunday.

25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on San Diego Chargers +6.5

The San Diego Chargers catch a break this week for a couple reasons.  One, this isn't the daunted West Coast to East game for an early start time where their body clocks would normally be playing at 10:00 AM.  That's because this start time has been moved back to 4:05 EST, which is what they're used to.  The Chargers also have the advantage of a mini-bye week after playing the Broncos last Thursday.

Fun Fact: The Chargers have held a lead for more minutes than any team in the NFL this season.  That would normally be the sign of one of the best teams in the NFL.  Instead, the Chargers are 2-4 right now when they should be no worse than 4-2.  All four of their losses have come by 6 points or less this season.  They've simply had horrible luck late in games.

But the Chargers finally got the monkey off their back last week in a 21-13 home win over the Broncos.  They controlled the game from start to finish, and even had to settle for four field goals, otherwise it would have been an even bigger blowout.  Now they are rejuvenated following that mini-bye.

While this is a great spot for San Diego, it's an awful one for Atlanta.  They are coming off back-to-back road trips out West to Denver and Seattle.  So they haven't seen their families in nine days or more.  They had a tough 2-point loss to the Seahawks last week, and I expect a hangover effect as well.

Plus, teams have been terrible the week after playing Seattle.  I don't know if it's because of their physicality or what, but teams are 34-58 ATS in their last 92 games after facing the Seahawks.  I highly doubt the Falcons will be as fired up to face the Chargers this week as they were against the Seahawks.

I also think the Falcons are overvalued right now after their fast start.  They have covered the spread in five straight games, all of which have come in the underdog role.  Now they are laying 6.5 points, which is by far the most they have been favored this season.  They were only 2.5-point favorites against the Bucs in Week 1.  Remember, this is a team that started 6-0 last year and wound up finishing just 8-8.  It's time to fade them.

Philip Rivers is having another great season, completing 67% of his passes with a 12-to-3 TD/INT ratio.  The Falcons are giving up 28 points per game, along with 68% completions and 285 passing yards per game this season.  Rivers figures to have a huge day through the air in this one, which is why the Chargers are never going to be out of it.

The Chargers' defense got a huge lift a few weeks back with Joey Bosa's return.  He wreaked havoc in the Broncos' backfield last week, and the Chargers certainly have a better pass rush than the Falcons.  That is the biggest weakness for the Falcons this season is their lack of a pass rush, and they will get exposed by Rivers, especially with his quick release.

The Chargers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games.  San Diego is 6-0 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last three seasons.  Atlanta is a woeful 1-9 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons.  It is actually getting outscored overall in its last 10 in the role of the favorite.  Bet the Chargers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Philadelphia Eagles +3

This is an identical situation to two weeks ago.  The Eagles were coming off their bye and facing the Lions.  The line advanced line was Lions -1, but after the Lions lost to the Bears, the Eagles ended up being 3-point favorites.  They failed to cover in a 23-24 loss to the Lions.

The advanced line on this game was Eagles -1, but it has now shifted to Vikings -3.  And the Vikings had a bye last week, so the only reason for the move was the Eagles' 20-27 road loss to the Redskins.  The betting public got killed on that game and now has no faith in the Eagles.  It's time to buy low on them.

Back-to-back road losses to the Lions and Redskins aren't that big of a deal, and they only lost those two contests by a combined eight points.  I am not ready to downgrade the Eagles as much as the betting public is.  I still believe this is one of the better teams in the NFL and closer to the one that started 3-0 than the one that is 0-2 in the last two.

The Eagles should get back on track at home this week.  After all, they are 2-0 at home this season, outscoring Cleveland and Pittsburgh a combined 63-13, or by 50 points.  They are still outscoring teams by an average of 11.4 points per game on the season.

Minnesota could not possibly be more overvalued than it is right now.  It has opened the season 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS.  The Vikings have now gone 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games overall, and the betting public has taken notice.  I think we're going to have an excellent opportunity to fade them in the coming weeks.

The Vikings are 2-0 on the road this season, but they were fortunate to win both games.  They beat the Titans 25-16 after trailing 10-0 thanks to two defensive touchdowns.  They beat the Panthers 22-10 after trailing 10-0 thanks to the help of a punt return TD.  They were actually outgained by a combined 110 yards by the Panthers and Titans in those two road games.

I think the Vikings' luck finally runs out this week.  They have committed just one turnover through five games this season, and they simply cannot keep that pace up.  They are +11 in turnover differential through five games, and that pace won't hold up, either.  They are on a +35 turnover pace for the season, which is unheard of.

While there's no denying that the Vikings have an elite defense, there is also no denying that their offense is one of the worst in the NFL.  They are averaging just 303 yards per game and 5.0 per play against opponents that give up 338 yards per game and 5.6 per play.  Their 5.0 yards per play on offense ranks 29th in the NFL.

Plays on underdogs or pick (PHILADELPHIA) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 33-10 (76.7%) ATS since 1983.  It's simply time to sell high on the Vikings and buy low on the Eagles.  Roll with the Eagles Sunday.

15* Ole Miss/LSU ESPN Saturday No-Brainer on LSU -6.5

The LSU Tigers have new life under interim head coach Ed Orgeron.  They have played their two best games with him at the helm, and now they're chomping at the bit to get a shot at Ole Miss in Baton Rouge in front of a hostile Saturday night home crowd.

In their first game under Orgeron, they beat Missouri 42-7 and outgained them by 369 yards.  In their second game last week, the beat Southern Miss 45-10 and outgained them by 217 yards.

"You can see a little pep in their step. Guys are making plays, guys are having fun," Orgeron said this week. "I know they feel good about being 2-0."

Amazingly, LSU's offense went off even without Leonard Fournette.  That's because backup Derrius Guice is another future NFL back.  He has rushed for 564 yards and six touchdowns while averaging 9.1 per carry.  But now Fournette is coming back this week, and this is now arguably the best 1-2 RB punch in the entire country.

Danny Etling has done a good job since taking over as the starting quarterback.  He has thrown for 925 yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions while averaging 7.8 yards per attempt.  And this offense has been well above average as the Tigers are putting up 6.8 yards per play against opponents that only allow 5.5 per play.

There's no question LSU has a massive edge on defense.  It is giving up just 14.0 points per game against opponents that average 27.4 points per game.  Ole Miss is allowing 30.3 points per game against opponents that average 32.2 points per game.  The Rebels also allow 213 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry, so Fournette and Guice are primed to have huge games here.

I really question the mindset of Ole Miss now that is just 3-3 after falling to Arkansas 30-34 on the road last week.  Now the Rebels are essentially buried and have no shot at winning the SEC West, while LSU is right in the thick of the race and actually hosts Alabama in two weeks.  I just like the mindset of the Tigers a lot more than the Rebels heading into this one because of it.

Adding fuel to the fire is the fact that LSU want revenge from a 17-38 road loss at Ole Miss last year.  That game was far from the blowout that the score showed as LSU actually outgained Ole Miss 508 to 432 in that game.  Home-field advantage has meant a lot in this series as the home team has won four straight and six of the last seven meetings with the lone exception being an LSU 52-3 road win in 2011.

LSU is a perfect 18-0 straight up in its last 18 October home games.  The Tigers are 8-1 ATS in home games in weeks 5 through 9 over the last three seasons.  The Rebels are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  Roll with LSU Saturday.

20* Ohio State/Penn State Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Penn State +19.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions are in a great spot here.  They are coming off a bye week, so they've had two full weeks to prepare for the Buckeyes.  They are going to be ready to play in front of a hostile crowd on Saturday night in Happy Valley at 8:00 EST.

The Buckeyes are more and more overvalued with each passing week following their 4-0 ATS start.  They failed to cover as 28.5-point favorites in a 21-point home win over Indiana.  Then, they survived an overtime scare from Wisconsin on the road as 10-point favorites last week in a 30-23 win.

Wisconsin took advantage of its bye coming into last week and arguably should have beaten Ohio State.  It actually outgained the Buckeyes by 39 yards for the game and poked some holes in that Ohio State defense.  The Badgers rushed for 236 yards and threw for 214 in the loss.

Penn State is 4-0 at home this season to improve to 10-1 SU in its last 11 home games overall.  That's what I would call a tremendous home-field advantage.  Yet, Penn State is now the biggest home underdog it has ever been this week.  That fact alone shows you that there is value with the Nittany Lions.

Penn State is clearly getting better.  After beating Minnesota 29-26 in their Big Ten home opener, they throttled Maryland 38-14 despite being 2.5-point underdogs last time out.  This game was every bit the blowout that the final score indicated.  The Nittany Lions outgained the Terrapins by 254 yards in that contest.

Penn State is vastly improved on offense this season.  It is putting up 30.5 points and 391 yards per game against opponents that only allow 22.5 points and 331 yards per game.  Its defense has also held its own in allowing 28.5 points per game against opponents that average 34.5 points per game.  And this defense is now getting a lot healthier after the bye week as injuries decimated them in the early going.

The Nittany Lions have played the Buckeyes tough at home recently.  They lost 24-31 (OT) in their last home meeting in 2014 as 14-point dogs.  They haven't lost by more than 17 points to Ohio State in any of their last three home meetings.  The home team is 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings.

Trace McSorley is averaging 8.1 yards per pass attempt with eight touchdowns and three interceptions, while also rushing for 186 yards and three scores.  Saquon Barkley is healthy now and starting to put up big numbers.  He's up to 582 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns on the season.

Plays on home underdogs of 14.5 or more points (PENN ST) - after two or more consecutive straight up wins, with a winning record on the season are 36-10 (78.3%) ATS since 1992.  Take Penn State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Purdue +24

The Purdue Boilermakers just fired head coach Darrell Hazell after last week's 35-49 loss to Iowa.  Hazell had the least successful run of any Boilermakers coach, going 9-33 overall and 3-24 in conference play.

The interim coach will be Gerad Parker, the wide receiver's coach and recruiting coordinator.  He will be auditioning for the job for the rest of the season and has an outside shot of getting this team to a bowl after a 3-3 start.  I always like backing teams off a coaching change because it gives them new life, and I believe that will be the case here.

After all, Purdue was showing some progress the past two weeks.  After winning 34-31 at Illinois as 9-point dogs two weeks ago, the Boilermakers gave Iowa all it wanted last week in a 35-49 home loss.  The Boildermakers racked up 505 yards on the Hawkeyes and were only outgained by 15 yards for the game.

David Blough had a career game with 458 yards and five touchdowns against one interception.  Nebraska is very familiar with Blough as he led the Boilermakers to a 55-45 home win over the Huskers last season.  He threw for 274 yards and four touchdowns without an interception in that win.

Nebraska is overvalued right now after opening the season 6-0 SU & 4-1-1 ATS through six games.  This is also a terrible spot for the Huskers.  They are coming off a big 27-22 road win at Indiana last week, and they have road games at Wisconsin and Ohio State on deck.  That makes this a sandwich game for the Huskers, and they likely won't bring the kind of focus to this game that it's going to take to beat Purdue by more than 24 points.

A couple weeks back Nebraska failed to cover as 20.5-point home favorites over Illinois in a 31-16 win.  I see this game playing out similarly, especially considering Purdue beat Illinois on the road two weeks ago.  And two years ago, Purdue lost 14-35 at Nebraska as 21.5-point dogs.  But that game was much closer than the final score as the Boilermakers actually outgained the Huskers by 43 yards.

Purdue is a perfect 6-0 ATS as an underdog of 21.5 to 31 points over the last three seasons.  It is only losing by 15.2 points per game on average in this spot.  The Boilermakers are 7-0 ATS in road games after having lost two of their last three games over the last three seasons.  Purdue is 9-1 ATS in road games after one or more consecutive straight up losses over the last three seasons.  It is only losing by 7.8 points per game in this spot.  Bet Purdue Saturday.

20* Texas A&M/Alabama SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas A&M +18.5

Simply put, the No. 1 team is almost always going to be overvalued.  That's especially the case for Alabama this week because they have covered five of their seven games this season, including the last two.

The last game really stands out for public bettors.  Alabama beat Tennessee 49-10 as 13.5-point road favorites.  Well, that proved to be an awful spot for Tennessee.  The Vols were were playing the fourth straight game of a brutal four-week schedule that included narrow wins over Florida And Georgia, and a double-OT loss to Texas A&M.

Speaking of Texas A&M, this is clearly the second-best team in the SEC right now, and they are getting a whopping 18.5 points here.  And this spot couldn't be better for the Aggies.  They are coming off a bye last week following their win over Tennessee.  The two weeks to prepare for Alabama is a huge advantage that's getting overlooked in this line.

The Aggies have the type of team that can give the Crimson Tide trouble.  They have an elite defensive line that features the best DE tandem in the country in Myles Garrett and Daeshon Hall.  They also have a running quarterback in Trevor Knight, who was the QB for Oklahoma when the Sooners beat Alabama in the Sugar Bowl in 2014.

Knight is leading a Texas A&M offense that is putting up 40.2 points and 532.8 yards per game against teams that only allow 30.7 points and 431 yards per game.  Knight has thrown for 1,500 yards and nine touchdowns, while also rushing for 502 yards and nine scores while averaging 7.7 yards per carry.  His ability to use his feet will keep the Alabama defense honest.

One reason the Crimson Tide are so overvalued right now is that they are getting touchdowns from everywhere, which isn't likely to continue.  They have scored 11 non-offensive touchdowns this season with eight from their defense and three on punt return TDs.  That's one more than they had all of last year.  You can bet that protecting the football has been top priority in the last two weeks of preparation for the Aggies.

Texas A&M has actually played its best football on the road this season.  It went on the road and beat Auburn 19-16 as 1.5-point underdogs while outgaining the Tigers by 79 yards.  The Aggies also went into Arlington and beat Arkansas 45-24 as 7-point favorites and outgained the Razorbacks by 100 yards.  Alabama beat Arkansas by 19 and only outgained them by 44 yards.

Plays on road underdogs (TEXAS A&M) - after two or more consecutive losses against the spread, in a game involving two top-level teams that win at least 80% of their games are 27-6 (81.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Alabama is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 when the total is 56.5 to 63.  Bet Texas A&M Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia +9.5

I can't help but think North Carolina is out of gas right now.  The Tar Heels haven't had a bye week, and now they'll be playing for an 8th consecutive week.  Their last four games were a 1-point win over Pitt, a 2-point win over Florida State, a 31-point loss to VA Tech and a 7-point win at Miami.

This is about as tough of a stretch as you're going to find in the ACC.  Now the Tar Heels probably feel like they have a break this week playing Virginia.  But that's not the case as Virginia is no pushover.

The Cavaliers have steadily improved as the season has gone on under first-year head coach Bronco Mendenhall.  They beat Central Michigan by 14 at home and Duke by 14 on the road.  Then they had a bye week before losing to Pitt by 14 at home last week.

However, that game against Pitt was one of the most misleading final scores of the week.  The Panthers managed to score 45 points despite gaining just 346 total yards and getting outgained by 18 yards by Virginia.  The difference was a 93-yard kickoff return by Pitt in the 1st quarter and a 59-yard INT return TD with four seconds left before half.

So, Virginia went toe-to-toe with Pitt last week, which is the same Pitt team that only lost by one point to UNC on the road.  And the Panthers even blew a 13-point lead over the Tar Heels with five minutes to play.

This Virginia offense has really kicked it into high hear in its past three games.  It is averaging 38 points and 450 yards per game during this stretch.  QB Kurt Benkert has thrown for 1,733 yards with 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions while averaging nearly 300 passing yards per game.

Virginia is a sensational 12-2 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons, including a perfect 6-0 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 10 points over this stretch.  The Cavaliers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight conference games, and 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  The Tar Heels are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Cavaliers are 9-3 SU & 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home meetings.  Take Virginia Saturday.

20* USF/Temple AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Temple +6.5

The Temple Owls have outgained five of their seven opponents this season. The only exceptions were being outgained by 79 yards at Penn State and by 93 yards in their opener against Army. So, they have not been overmatched in any game they have played this season, and they certainly won’t be overmatched by South Florida at home Friday night.

I have been extremely impressed with Temple in its last two games. It lost 27-34 at Memphis as 9.5-point dogs despite outgaining the Tigers by 204 yards and should have won, but committing three turnovers cost them in that contest. They also outgained a very good UCF team by 68 yards last week in a 26-25 road win as 3.5-point dogs.

The Owls boast an above-average offense that is averaging 32.0 points per game this season. Their defense is once again solid this season as they are holding opponents to 23.0 points per game, 316.6 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play.

South Florida is 6-1 this season and is overvalued right now because of its record. But like the Owls, the Bulls have outgained five of their seven opponents. They were outgained by 95 yards in a 45-20 win at Syracuse in one of the most misleading final scores of the season.

I would argue that two of the past three games were misleading finals as well. They only outgained Cincinnati by 61 yards in their 45-20 road win and ECU by 80 yards in their 38-22 home win. The Bulls also haven’t beaten anyone of any significance as they have been favored in all of their wins. The only exception was the 35-55 loss to Florida State at home. Temple will clearly be the second-best team that USF has played this season.

While the Bulls have a very good offense, their defense has left a lot to be desired this season. They are giving up 25.9 points, 436.1 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play this season. Teams have really had success against them on the ground as they are allowing 190 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry.

The Owls figure to have plenty of success as well. Since getting star RB Jahad Thomas back from injury, the running game has really clicked. The Owls have rushed for at least 197 yards in three of their past four games. Thomas is coming off a 127-yard effort against UCF and should have a big day here.

Temple is 6-0 ATS versus poor defensive teams that allow 425 or more yards per game over the last two seasons. The Owls are 8-1 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons. Temple is 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall. The Owls are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Temple Friday.

20* Bears/Packers NFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago +7.5

The Packers are an absolute mess right now in the injury department.  Defensively, they are down their top three cornerbacks in Sam Shields, Demarious Randall and Quinten Rollins.  Look for Brian Hoyer, who has thrown for at least 300 yards in four consecutive games, to have a big day through the air.

Offensively, the Packers are likely to be without RB Eddie Lacy after already being without James Starks.  They are so desperate right now that they even traded for Chiefs' fourth-string RB Knile Davis earlier this week.  Receiver Ty Montgomery is even expected to play some running back since they're in such dire straights.

I know the Bears are just 1-5 on the season, but they're certainly better than their record would indicate.  After beating the Lions 17-14 at home, the Bears blew a 23-19 lead over the Colts with under four minutes to play, losing 23-29.  They also blew a 13-0 lead over the Jaguars in the 4th quarter last week and lost 17-16.

The Bears actually rank 8th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 34.0 yards per game.  They are also 4th in the NFL in yards per play differential, outgaining teams by 0.6 yards per play.  To compare, the Packers are 20th in yardage differential (-7.2 yards/game) and 23rd in yards per play differential (-0.3 yards/play).

Chicago ranks 7th in total offense and 4th in passing offense this season at 375.2 yards per game and 285 passing yards per contest.  Hoyer has been spreading the ball around nicely to Alshon Jeffery (29 receptions, 487 yards), Eddie Royal (29, 338) and Cameron Meredith (26, 295).  Rookie Jordan Howard has rushed for 330 yards and is averaging 5.0 per carry.

The Packers allowed 191 rushing yards to the Cowboys last week after having given up just 171 yards total in four games prior.  Dak Prescott also lit them up for 247 passing yards, three touchdowns and a 117.4 passer rating last week despite playing without Dez Bryant.  Hoyer and Howard are likely to have plenty of success here as well.  The Bears have outgained their last three opponents by a combined 343 yards.

The road team won both meetings last season.  The Bears won 17-13 as 7.5-point road underdogs at Lambeau Field.  And even in their 31-23 loss to open the season to the Packers last year, the Bears outgained them 402 to 322 for the game, or by 80 total yards.  Despite being 1-5 on the season, this is a rivalry game that the Bears will clearly show up for it looking to win.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CHICAGO) - bad team - outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after a loss by 6 or less points are 86-41 (67.7%) ATS since 1983.  Plays against home teams (GREEN BAY) - a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 71-35 (67%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

Green Bay is 8-19 ATS in its last 27 home games vs. a team that is outscored by 6-plus points per game on the season.  The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Packers have played three home games this season and have yet to win by more than a touchdown.  Bet the Bears Thursday.

25* CFB Thursday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Virginia Tech -4

The Virginia Tech Hokies aren’t getting any love from oddsmakers after their 17-31 upset loss to Syracuse as 23-point favorite last week. But I was on Syracuse in that game knowing that it would be a flat spot for the Hokies after beating UNC on the road the week before, and having Miami on deck Thursday. So I’m willing to throw out that effort.

There’s no doubt the Hokies will be up for this game after that awful loss. First place in the Coastal Division is on the line, and Lane Stadium is going to be rocking. This is one of the toughest places to play in the country, and with what’s at stake, the Hokies will be ready for it.

It’s clear to me that Virginia Tech is for real. That Syracuse game was the first time it had been outgained all season. Don’t forget that VA Tech outgained Tennessee by 70 yards, but gave that game away by committing five turnovers. What proceeded was three straight blowout victories over Boston College (49-0), ECU (54-17) and at UNC (34-3).

That gives these teams a common opponent in UNC, which beat Miami on the road 20-13 last week. It was the second straight loss for the Hurricanes. They were outgained by the Tar Heels by 100 yards after getting outgained by 131 yards by Florida State in a 19-20 home loss the week before. Not to mention, the game before that Miami beat Georgia Tech 35-21, but was actually outgained in that contest and benefited from a bye week and two defensive touchdowns.

It’s clear to me that Miami has problems on offense that simply aren’t fixable. The offense managed just 355 yards against Georgia Tech and 21 points. They were held to 19 points and 276 total yards against Florida State. They were also limited to only 13 points and 363 total yards against a very bad North Carolina defense.

The Hokies have certainly taken care of business at home this season. They are 3-0 at home, putting up 46.3 points per game and giving up only 10.0 points, outscoring opponents by a whopping 36.3 points per game. Beating Boston College by 49 and East Carolina by 37 were certainly no small feats.

And Miami’s offense is likely to struggle again this week as it goes up against a VA Tech defense that is giving up just 18.2 points per game, 291 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play. Coordinator Bud Foster’s unit is holding opponents to 7.1 points, 104 yards per game and 1.1 yards per play less than their season averages.

And this VA Tech offense is vastly improved this season under the guidance of head coach Justin Fuente, who worked wonders at Memphis before coming here. The Hokies are putting up 35.7 points per game this season. QB Jerod Evans has been an absolute stud, completing 62.7 percent of his passes for 1,352 yards with 17 touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 319 yards and two scores.

Brad Kaaya hasn’t fared well against the better competition like he will face Thursday. He completed 59.4 percent of his passes for 214 yards against Florida State, and 51.6 percent for 224 yards against North Carolina. He has thrown only two touchdowns against one interception in his last two games.

The Hokies are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 Thursday games. Virginia Tech is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Finally, I expect the Hokies to also be motivated from back-to-back losses to the Hurricanes the past two seasons. This is the best team that VA Tech has had in a while and one that’s on a mission to get back to the ACC Title game for the first time since 2011.  Bet Virginia Tech Thursday.

20* Jets/Cardinals ESPN Monday No-Brainer on UNDER 47

The biggest reason I like the UNDER in this game is the coaching matchup. Todd Bowles is the former defensive coordinator of the Arizona Cardinals. He knows what Bruce Arians likes to run, and Arians knows how Bowles likes to attack with his defenses. I think the familiarity of one another’s schemes is going to lead to a low-scoring affair.

Plus, both teams are playing with their backs against the wall with Arizona at 2-3 and New York at 1-4, and they're looking at this as a must-win game. I think that will bring out the best in the defenses as both offenses come with a more conservative approach than normal, trying not to make a big mistake in this pressure-packed game.

I know that’s the case for Ryan Fitzpatrick, who threw threw nine interceptions over a two-game span before last week’s 13-31 loss to the Steelers. Fitzpatrick did a much better job of protecting the ball against the Steelers as he didn’t throw an interception, but he also took the check down a lot more than normal.

He will continue that approach this week, especially now that he’s without his security blanket in Eric Decker for the rest of the season. Not to mention, TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins is questionable with an ankle injury, and center Nick Mangold is questionable with a knee injury that forced him to leave last game.

Don’t expect Carson Palmer to come out guns-a-blazing for the Cardinals, either. He didn’t play last week because of a concussion, and the Cardinals are going to try and protect him in his first game back. Palmer also will take a more conservative approach himself as he has thrown five interceptions against six touchdowns in four games of action.

The Cardinals had success with their running game last week and will lean on David Johnson even more going forward after he rushed for 157 yards and two touchdowns against the 49ers last week. The same can be said for the Jets, who will look to get Matt Forte more involved in the running game, because that’s what worked for them for the first two weeks of the season, and they kind of got away from it the last few weeks.

Both of these defenses are top-notch. I know the Jets have given up their fair share of points this season, but a lot of that has had to do with the poor positions that they have been put in due to Fitzpatrick’s turnovers. I have no doubt that this is still one of the best defenses in the NFL, but a brutal schedule thus far hasn’t allowed that to show as much.

The Cardinals are just as good as they have been in the past under Bowles, and even last year. They are giving up just 20.2 points, 308 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play this season. They rank 8th in the NFL in total defense and 10th in scoring defense. Now they’ll be up against a Jets’ offense that has managed just 11.0 points per game the last three weeks.

It’s not like the Cardinals are lighting it up on offense this year, either. They have been held to 21 or fewer points in three of their five games this season. The only exceptions were Tampa Bay and San Francisco, who committed a combined eight turnovers and set the Cardinals up with many easy scoring opportunities.

The UNDER is 5-1 in Jets last six road games. The UNDER is 6-1 in Jets last seven games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. The UNDER is 5-0 in Cardinals last five Monday games. The UNDER is 7-0 in Cardinals last seven home games. The UNDER is 6-2 in Jets last eight Monday games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

25* NFC Non-Divisional GAME OF THE YEAR on Green Bay Packers -4

The Green Bay Packers simply do not lose at home. In their last 17 home games, the Packers have outscored opponents 335 to 106 in the first half of games. They have averaged leading by 13.5 points per game at half to put teams away early, and that’s what I expect them to do with the Cowboys this week.

Both home games the Packers played this season were bigger blowouts than the final score showed. The Packers led the Lions 31-10 at half before coasting to a 34-27 victory. They also led the Giants 17-6 at half and 23-9 late in the 4th quarter before the Giants tacked on a garbage touchdown late to make it 23-16.

That game against the Giants was certainly a bigger blowout than the final score showed. They Packers outgained the Giants 406 to 219 for the game, or by 187 total yards. Unfortunately, they settled for three field goals and Aaron Rodgers threw two uncharacteristic interceptions.

That’s the same Giants team that the Cowboys lost 20-19 at home to in the opener for a common opponent. The Cowboys have beaten four lackluster teams since in the Redskins, Bears, 49ers and Bengals. Those four teams are a combined 7-13 on the season. The only team the Packers have lost to was the Vikings 14-17 on the road, and that’s the same Vikings team that is the only unbeaten squad left at 5-0.

I simply believe that the Cowboys are way overvalued right now due going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games. They should be closer to touchdown underdogs, just like the Giants were against the Packers last week. So I believe we are getting a discount here with the Packers -4.

The Cowboys are still missing several key players with Dez Bryant, Orlando Scandrick and La’el Collins not expected to play. I think those injuries are going to catch up to them sooner rather than later. The Packers have both Eddy Lacy and Sam Shields questionable, but Randall Cobb is expected to play as he’s listed as probable.  And James Starks is a proven backup who actually adds a dimension in the passing game if Lacy isn't able to go.

The Packers have certainly had the Cowboys’ number in recent years. Indeed, they are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Cowboys. They won 28-7 at home last season as only 6-point favorites. They outgained the Cowboys 435 to 270 in that contest, or by 165 total yards.

This is a great matchup for the Packers. They lead the NFL in run defense, giving up a mere 43 rushing yards per game and 2.0 per carry. The Cowboys lead the NFL in rushing at 155 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry. Ezekiel Elliott is up against the toughest defense he has faced yet this week and will get shut down.

Dak Prescott miraculously hasn't thrown an interception this season, but there's no way that streak continues for much longer.  It will likely end this week as the Cowboys will finally have to play catch-up.  They have relied on their running game to this point, but once the Packers stop that and get a big lead early, Prescott will be in an unfamiliar and uncomfortable position.

The Cowboys have a terrible defense that gives up 356 yards per game and 6.1 per play.  This defense has been masked to this point because the Cowboys are controlling the ball for nearly 34 minutes per game, while the defense is only on the field for 26 minutes per contest.  They won't be able to control the time of possession this week because their running game will get stuffed, and their defense will be exposed against Aaron Rodgers and company.

Green Bay is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in four straight games. The Packers are 9-2 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons. The Cowboys are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record. The home team is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

20* Chiefs/Raiders AFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Kansas City -1

The Kansas City Chiefs have been steaming mad over the past two weeks following their 14-43 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.  There's no question they have been dialed in and focused on their bye week, and I expect them to play their best game of the season here against the Oakland Raiders.

The Broncos lost this week to fall to 4-2, while the Raiders are 4-1.  So the Chiefs, at 2-2, are looking at this as a must-win game to get right back in the AFC West race.  And coming off their bye, this couldn't be a better situation for them.

Andy Reid is the best coach in the NFL coming off a bye.  In fact, his teams have gone 19-3 straight up off a bye, including playoffs, in all games he has coached.  He'll have the Chiefs ready to go this week.

The bye helped get Jamaal Charles healthy.  He is expected to play a much bigger role this week after only playing a few snaps against the Steelers in his return.  The Chiefs didn't feel it necessary to keep him in that blowout loss.  But now the Chiefs' offense is going to be much better going forward with him back.

Oakland is one of the most overrated teams in the NFL.  The Raiders are 4-1 this season, but all four wins came in the closing seconds, and they could be 1-4 just as easily as 4-1.  The numbers really show that the Raiders aren't that good of a football team.

The Raiders have actually been outgained in all five games this season.  They rank 29th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by 61 yards per game.  Their defense is last in the NFL in allowing 452.6 yards per game, which is their biggest problem.  They are giving up a ridiculous 7.0 yards per play, while the Chiefs are only allowing 5.7 per play.

Kansas City has won three straight and five of the last six meetings in this series.  They held Oakland to an average of 18.5 points and 283 yards per game in two meetings last season.  The Chiefs are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 meetings in Oakland.  The Raiders are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games and don't have much of a home-field advantage at all.  Take the Chiefs Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Carolina Panthers -2.5

The Carolina Panthers are 1-4 this season and in desperate need of a win.  They trail the Atlanta Falcons, who are 4-1, by three games in the division.  It's safe to say that they are looking at this game against New Orleans as a must-win and will be putting their best foot forward.

The Panthers are expected to get two key pieces back this week.  Both Cam Newton and Jonathan Stewart are expected to return to the lineup.  Getting both those guys back will have this offense hitting on all cylinders once again.

Carolina might be the best 1-4 team in the history of the NFL.  The Panthers actually rank 6th in the league in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 50.8 yards per game.  Only the Eagles, Seahawks, Ravens, Falcons and Cardinals have been better.

The problem for the Panthers has been turnovers.  They have committed 14 turnovers in five games after finishing +20 in turnover differential last season.  They committed lost the turnover battle 4-0 to the Bucs last week, yet still should have won and only lost 14-17.  Keep in mind that neither Newton nor Stewart played last week.

The Saints should be 0-4.  Their only win came 35-34 at San Diego before their bye last week, and they trailed in that game by 13 points with four minutes to go.  But the Chargers gift-wrapped the win by fumbling on the 1st play of their final two drives late in the 4th.  The Saints only managed 275 total yards against the Chargers and there's no way they should have scored 34 points.

New Orleans ranks 25th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by 36.8 yards per game.  Not even a bye week can save their defense, which is giving up 32.5 points and 422.7 yards per game.  Look for Newton and company to light up their defense as well, and for the Panthers' defense too get back to how it was playing last year. The Panthers still have an elite defense as they've given up 315 or fewer yards in four of their five games this season.

The Panthers are 3-0 in their last three meetings with the Saints.  They are averaging 475 yards per game and giving up only 341 yards per game in those three contests, outgaining the Saints by 134 yards per game on average.

New Orleans is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 games off a road win by 3 points or less.  Carolina is 61-30 ATS in its last 91 games vs. bad defensive teams that give up 24 or more points per game.  The Saints are 4-10-1 ATS int heir last 15 home games and 2-7 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a losing record.

Plays on road teams (CAROLINA) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games, in October games are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Panthers are way undervalued right now due to their 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS start.  They should be closer to touchdown favorites here because they are nowhere near as bad as their record.  This is still one of the best teams in the NFL and they will prove that this week.  Roll with the Panthers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Browns +7

The Tennessee Titans have no business being a 7-point favorite against anyone in the NFL.  But they are way overvalued now because they beat Miami 30-17 on the road last week.  Miami might be the worst team in the NFL.

Cleveland has had a chance to win three of its five games this season and really should be 2-3 at the worst.  It blew a 20-2 lead against Baltimore and lost 20-25, it missed a field goal at the end of regulation and lost 24-30 at Miami, and it turned the ball over three times late and blew a 20-17 fourth quarter lead against the Redskins and lost 20-31.

Sure, the Browns were overmatched in losses to Philadelphia and New England, but those are two of the very best teams in the NFL.  Plus, they had their starting QB get hurt and forced out of action midway through both of those games.  They even had to play Charlie Whitehurst early in their loss to the Patriots last week.

But now Cody Kessler is back this week and healthy.  Hhe has actually played very well in three games this season, completing 66.7 ppercent of his passes for 529 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.  And the Browns can rely on their running game, which is producing 125 yards per game and 5.0 per carry against teams that only allow 103 yards per game and 4.1 per carry.

Stopping the run will be key for the Browns this week as Tennessee averages 149 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry.  Well, the Browns only give up 3.9 yards per carry this season, while the Titans surrender 4.2 per carry.  I actually give the edge on the ground to the Browns in this game when you look at the numbers.

Most NFL teams are better at home, but that's not the case for the Titans.  Since the beginning of the 2014 season, the Titans are 2-16 straight up at home with both wins coming against the Jaguars.  That's why they should not be 7-point favorites here.

The Browns are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Titans are 15-34-3 ATS in their last 52 home games and 6-23-1 ATS in their last 30 games following an ATS win.  Tennessee is 3-13 ATS in home games over the last three seasons and 0-8 ATS following one or more consecutive ATS wins over the last three seasons.  Bet the Browns Sunday.

15* Eagles/Redskins NFC East ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia -2.5

While most people don't believe that the Philadelphia Eagles are for real, I certainly do.  It's hard to argue with the numbers, and the numbers show that they are among the elite during their 3-1 start.

Indeed, the Eagles rank 1st in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 97.0 yards per game.  Carson Wentz looks great as he'd leading the Eagles to 28.7 points and 363.7 yards per game.  But the defense is underrated, giving up just 12.7 points and 266.7 yards per game.

The Steelers are one of the best teams in the NFL, and the Eagles throttled them 34-3.  And in their only loss this season, the Eagles fought back to take a late lead against the Lions last week, but lost 23-24.

But there's no way they should have lost that game to the Lions as they outgained them by 102 yards.  However, I think the loss will work in their favor because it will keep them grounded and focused to bounce back with a victory this week against the Redskins.

Washington could easily be 0-5 instead of 3-2.  But because the Redskins are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games, they are way overvalued right now.  It's time to fade them, and I agree with this huge line move that had the Redskins open as favorites, and now the Eagles are nearly favored by a field goal.

The Redskins were outgained by 54 yards by the Giants in their 29-27 win.  They were outgained by 79 yards by the lowly Browns in their 31-20 win.  They trailed that game 20-17 in the 4th quarter before the Browns turned the ball over on three straight possessions to gift-wrap the win.  And the Ravens fumbled going into the end zone for a touchback, and had a last-second TD called back in their 10-16 loss to the Redskins last week.

Washington ranks 21st in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by 26 yards per game.  The Redskins have one of the worst defenses in the league.  They are giving up 24.4 points and 391.6 yards per game on the season and won't be able to slow down Wentz and company in this one.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHILADELPHIA) - off a road loss, after the first month of the season are 71-32 (68.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Redskins are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Eagles Sunday.

15* Ohio State/Wisconsin Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Ohio State -10.5

I actually think not covering at Indiana last week has kept this line lower than it should be. I had Indiana +28 last week and cashed it in against Ohio State. But I’m getting back on the Buckeyes this week as only 10.5-point favorites against the Badgers.

I believe Wisconsin is one of the most overrated teams in the country. Wins over both Michigan State and LSU don’t look nearly as good now as they did a few weeks ago. And don’t forget, the Badgers barely beat lowly Georgia State 23-17 at home as 35.5-point favorites.

I also think this line is lower than it should be because Wisconsin only lost 7-14 at Michigan. However, that game was a much bigger blowout than the final score showed. The Wolverines outgained the Badgers by 190 total yards and held them to just 159 yards of total offense. The Wolverines also had to settle for three field goals, and missed all of them.  Just like the Badgers were outclassed by Michigan, they will be outclassed by Ohio State this week.

Ohio State is legitimately one of the top three teams in the country, if not the best. It boasts a high-powered offense that is putting up 53.2 points and 537.6 yards per game. Wisconsin, which is only averaging 26.0 points and 360.2 yards per game, doesn’t have the firepower to keep up.

Even more impressive has been an Ohio State defense led by Greg Schiano that has been absolutely suffocating. The Buckeyes have only given up 10.8 points, 246.6 yards per game and 3.7 yards per play against opponents that average 28.6 points, 422 yards per game and 5.5 per play. So, the Buckeyes are holding opponents to 18 points, 175 yards per game and 1.8 yards per play less than their season averages.

Ohio State has won four straight and seven of its last eight meetings with Wisconsin. The latest was a 59-0 victory in the Big Ten Championship Game in 2014. The Buckeyes outgained the Badgers 558 to 258 in that contest. I can foresee a similar yardage differential in this game and another blowout victory in the Buckeyes’ favor.

The Buckeyes are 8-1 ATS versus good teams who outscore opponents by 10-plus points per game over the last three seasons. They are beating these teams by 22.0 points per game on average. They beat Oklahoma by 21 on the road a few weeks back, and Oklahoma is far better than Wisconsin.

Ohio State has won 19 straight true road games, a school record and the longest active streak in the country.  They always seem to step up in hostile environments, especially under Urban Meyer.  The Buckeyes are 41-16-1 ATS in their last 58 road games.  Roll with Ohio State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Tulsa +21.5

This is a really bad spot for the Houston Cougars.  They are coming off a 40-46 road loss at Navy that crushed their dreams of making the four-team playoff.  I fully expect them to come out flat this week because of it, and for Tulsa to make a game out of this.

Former Baylor offensive coordinator Philip Montgomery is doing a great job at Tulsa.  He took them to a bowl game in his first season last year, and now he has them off to a 4-1 start this season.  They are fully capable of playing with Houston.

The only loss Tulsa suffered this year came at Ohio State.  But that was a 6-3 game late in the 2nd quarter before turnovers did them in.  They committed six turnovers in all, including two interceptions that were returned for touchdowns in a span of minutes that turned a close game into a blowout.

The fact that Tulsa hasn't covered the last two weeks has it undervalued here, and this line is bigger than it should be because of it.  The Golden Hurricane needed OT to beat Fresno State on the road despite outgaining them by 164 yards.  They also needed OT to beat SMU at home last week despite outgaining them by 150 yards.  I also can't help but think Tulsa was looking ahead to this game against Houston and not focusing on SMU.

The Golden Hurricane are putting up some very impressive numbers this season.  Their offense is dynamite once again in averaging 39.4 points and 474 yards per game.  However, the improvement on defense has been remarkable from last year.  They are giving up 387 yards per game on the season, and they held Ohio State's high-powered offense to just 415 total yards.

Tulsa has played Houston tough each of the last two years.  They only lost by 14 at home last year, and they lost by 10 on the road as 20-point underdogs in 2014.  This game will be decided by a similar margin most likely, and definitely less than three touchdowns.  The Golden Hurricane have been a great bet away from home as they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games.

Plays on road underdogs (TULSA) - after two or more consecutive losses against the spread, in a game involving two top-level teams who are winning 80% or more of their games are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Tulsa Saturday.

20* Ole Miss/Arkansas ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas +7.5

The Arkansas Razorbacks will be hungry for their first conference victory. Unfortunately for them, they have ran into arguably the two best teams in the conference already in Texas A&M and Alabama. Not to mention, they beat TCU on the road, so they have certainly been battle-tested in the early going.

And their 24-45 road loss to Texas A&M wasn’t as big of a blowout as the final score indicated. It was tied at halftime before the Razorbacks lost 28-7 in the second half. They uncharacteristically could not punch it in in the red zone, which was their downfall.

Arkansas’ 30-49 loss to Alabama last week was also not the blowout that it may have seemed. The Razorbacks were only outgained by the Crimson Tide by 44 yards. However, they committed five turnovers, including two that were returned for touchdowns. One was a 100-yard pick-six that was a 14-point swing and the difference in the game.

Austin Allen is the best pocket passer in the SEC. He actually threw for 400 yards and three touchdowns on that great Alabama defense, though his three interceptions were certainly costly. Allen is completing 63.6 percent of his passes for 1,632 yards with 15 touchdowns and five interceptions on the season.

I believe Ole Miss comes in overvalued for a number of reasons. First, it is coming off a bye week, so that has clearly been factored into the line. And secondly, the Rebels have covered the spread in three straight games, while the Razorbacks have failed to cover in three straight. That has created artificial inflation of this line.

Ole Miss has yet to play a true road game this season. And Fayetteville is no easy place to play. Look for Razorback Stadium to be alive and well Saturday night with this game scheduled to be on ESPN. The home crowd will certainly benefit the Razorbacks here.

Arkansas has had Ole Miss’ number the past two seasons. The Razorbacks won 30-0 at home in 2014 and 53-52 on the road in overtime last year. The Razorbacks are 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings as they have been the underdogs in all three. Oddsmakers are once again undervaluing them as not only dogs here, but over a touchdown home dogs at that. Arkansas was a 7.5-point road dog at Ole Miss last year to compare, so there’s no way it should be the same line at home this time around.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ARKANSAS) – after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games are 28-6 (82.4%) since 1992.

Arkansas is 9-1 ATS vs. good passing teams who average 8 or more yards per attempt over the last three seasons. The Razorbacks are 9-1 ATS after three straight games where 60 total points or more were scored. The Rebels are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. The Razorbacks are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. The Rebels are 1-6 ATS in their last seven trips to Fayetteville.  Take Arkansas Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse +20

The Virginia Tech Hokies are way overvalued right now.  I was on them in their 34-3 win at North Carolina last week, but I'm going to fade them this week with the realization that the markets have caught up to them now.  The Hokies are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, and now it's time to fade them.

Their last two games weren't nearly the blowouts that the final scores showed.  They beat East Carolina 54-17 but only outgained them by 19 yards.  And they managed to score 34 points on North Carolina last week despite gaining just 264 total yards on offense.  They simply took advantage of four UNC turnovers and several short fields in the sloppy conditions created by Hurricane Matthew.

Hurricane Matthew also played a role in Syracuse's game last week.  The Orange lost 28-9 on the road to Wake Forest.  Well, that was an awful matchup because the Orange could not run their spread attack in the slop.  And that was a 14-9 game until late in the fourth quarter when Wake Forest got two touchdowns, including a defensive score, to make the final look like a bigger blowout than it really was.  Wake Forest only outgained Syracuse by 4 yards.

The Orange are certainly battle-tested as they've played some great teams already in Louisville, South Florida and Notre Dame.  They only lost by 17 to Notre Dame on a neutral field, and their 20-45 loss to South Florida was way misleading.  The Orange actually outgained the Bulls by 95 yards in that game, but gave it away by losing the turnover battle 3-0.

Playing in perfect conditions in the Carrier Dome, look for head coach Dino Babers to have his offense firing on ally cylinders.  The Orange put up 28 points on Louisville and 33 on Notre Dame earlier this season.  Eric Dungey is having a great year at QB, completing 64.3 percent of his passes for 1,886 yards with 11 touchdowns and four interceptions, while also rushing for 129 yards and five scores.

This is kind of a sandwich game for the Hokies, who may not have all of their focus on Syracuse.  They are coming off that big win against UNC last week on the road, and they play Miami this coming Thursday on a short week.  They could be saving something for that game.  Meanwhile, Syracuse will be up for this game in a big way with a nationally ranked opponent coming to the Carrier Dome.

I'm just not sure VA Tech has the firepower on offense to cover this big of a number, either.  The Hokies are averaging 412 yards per game and 5.3 per play against teams that give up 395 yards per game and 5.5 per play.  So, they have been an average offense at best this season in terms of moving the football consistently.

The Orange are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Hokies are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  VA Tech is 6-13-1 ATS in its last 20 vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet Syracuse Saturday.

20* Alabama/Tennessee CBS Saturday No-Brainer on Tennessee +13

For starters, the Game of the Year line in Vegas released before the season was Tennessee -1. Now it’s Alabama -13. That’s a ridiculous 14-point swing and the reason I believe there’s value with the Volunteers as home underdogs here.

Coming into the season, Alabama was expected to win the SEC West, while Tennessee was expected to win the SEC East. Nothing has changed as Alabama is 6-0 and taking care of business, while Tennessee is 5-1 with its only loss coming on the road in overtime against Texas A&M.

And I would argue that Tennessee outplayed Texas A&M last week and should have won. The Vols actually outgained the Aggies by 92 yards and racked up a whopping 684 yards of total offense. You won’t find many teams that lose with 600-plus yards, but the Vols shot themselves in the foot with seven turnovers.

Alabama beat Arkansas 49-30 on the road last week, but that game was closer than the final score. The Crimson Tide only outgained the Razorbacks by 44 yards. They forced five turnovers, two of which were returned for touchdowns, which proved to be the difference. In fact, the Crimson Tide have benefited from non-offensive touchdowns all season.

Tennessee ended an 11-game losing streak to Florida a few weeks back with a 38-28 victory. Now it will be motivated to end a 9-game losing streak to Alabama, and this will be its best opportunity yet as this is the best team Tennessee has had in quite some time.

Adding fuel to the fire is the fact that Tennessee had Alabama on the ropes last year and let them off the hook. The Vols had a 14-13 lead late until the Crimson Tide scored with 2:24 remaining to win 19-14. The Vols were 14.5-point road underdogs in that game, and now they’re 13-point home dogs in the rematch. That fact alone shows you there is value here as well.

I realize that this is the 4th game of a brutal 4-game schedule for Tennessee, but it seems to be getting better and that level of competition is only going to help them go up against a team like Alabama.  Plus, Tennessee has a bye next week, so it can put all of its eggs into one basket this week.  The Vols will put their best foot forward this week and worry about resting on their bye next week.

Plays on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (TENNESSEE) – in conference games, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 156-90 (63.4%) ATS since 1992. Alabama is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games when the total is between 56.5 and 63 points.

The Volunteers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a winning record. They have stepped up in their biggest games this season, beating VA Tech, Florida and Georgia, and covering as 8-point road dogs at Texas A&M in a game they should have won.  They will show up at home here and give the Crimson Tide all they can handle and possibly pull off the upset.  Bet Tennessee Saturday.

20* Duke/Louisville ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Duke +35

The Louisville Cardinals are getting mad respect from oddsmakers and the betting public right now. This game actually opened with Louisville -27.5 at BetOnline, but has already steamed up to -35, a massive 7.5-point move. I believe the value is with the Blue Devils because of it.

One performance from Duke really stands out to me this season that shows it is capable of going into Louisville and competing with the Cardinals. Duke went into Notre Dame and won 38-35 as 19.5-point underdogs a few weeks back. The Blue Devils put up 498 total yards against the Fighting Irish and were only outgained by 36 yards in the win.

I know that Louisville has had nearly two weeks to prepare for this game, but I can’t help but think there is still going to be a hangover effect from the 36-42 loss to Clemson. That loss could keep Louisville out of the four-team playoff, and it’s certainly likely to keep them out of the ACC Championship Game as Clemson would have to lose two more times for them to even have a chance.

Duke will be the best team that Louisville has faced outside of Florida State and Clemson. Marshall lost by 31 to Louisville, Syracuse lost by 34 and Charlotte lost by 56. If both Marshall, with a backup QB, and Syracuse can stay within 35 of Louisville, I have no doubt that Duke can as well.

The Blue Devils actually have a very good defense that is giving up only 21.5 points, 345 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play. I also like what I’ve seen from QB Daniel Jones, who is completing 62.3 percent of his passes for 1,455 yards with seven touchdowns and eight interceptions on the season. He has also rushed for 179 yards and three scores.  His 132 completions leads all freshmen nationally and his 1,634 total yards ranks second.

David Cutcliffe is 13-2 ATS in games played on Turf as the coach of Duke. Bobby Petrino is 1-9 ATS vs. excellent punt coverage teams who allow 7.5 or fewer yards per return as the coach of Louisville. The Blue Devils are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games on fieldturf. Duke is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 road games. The Cardinals are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a bye week. I believe that bye week has them way overvalued here.  Bet Duke Friday.

20* Broncos/Chargers AFC West No-Brainer on San Diego +3

The Chargers have been the most hard-luck team of anyone in the NFL this season. They could easily be 4-1 instead of 1-4 because they have actually held the lead in the 4th quarter in all but one game they’ve played.

In fact, they have held the lead for more minutes through five games than any other team in the NFL.  They simply haven’t gotten it done in the last few minutes, but they aren’t likely to have this bad of luck going forward.

The Chargers blew a 24-3 lead against the Chiefs in Week 1 and lost in overtime. They came back and throttled the Jaguars 38-14 in Week 2. They lost 22-26 at Indianapolis in Week 3 after holding a 22-20 lead with under two minutes to go. They blew a 13-point lead with under four minutes to go and lost 34-35 to the Saints after fumbling on back-to-back possessions in their own territory. And last week they botched a late field goal that would have tied it in a 31-34 loss at Oakland.

Despite their 1-4 record, the Chargers are actually outscoring teams by an average of 2.0 points per game on the season. Their offense is getting the job done with 30.4 points per game and 374.0 yards per game. Philip Rivers continues to play at a high level as he is completing 68% of his passes for 1,469 yards with 11 touchdowns and three interceptions while averaging 8.5 yards per attempt.

I believe the Denver Broncos are one of the more overrated teams in the NFL at this point in the season. That’s because they have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS on the year. But their four wins have all come against teams with losing records who have gone a combined 7-13 on the season.

This 3-point line indicates that the Broncos would be 6-point favorites on a neutral field, and I simply believe that is too much. Especially when you consider all four of San Diego’s losses have come by 4 points or less, including three by 3 points or fewer.

The clear weakness of the Chargers has been their pass defense. However, the Broncos are a run-first team and that won’t come into play as much this week. The Chargers have actually been stout against the run, giving up just 83 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry. They rank 8th in the NFL in run defense. The Broncos rank just 25th in the NFL in passing offense at 225.8 yards per game.

With the Broncos in first place in the AFC West, this is do or die for the Chargers.  They simply have to win this game to have any chance of catching the Broncos and Raiders in the division.  You can expect Rivers and company to be putting their best foot forward because of it, especially against a division rival.

San Diego is 6-0 ATS off a division loss over the last two seasons. The Chargers are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. AFC West opponents. San Diego is 7-1 ATS in its last eight vs. AFC teams.

Plays on home underdogs or pick (SAN DIEGO) – after failing to cover the spread in two out of their last three games, a terrible team (winning 25% or less) playing a team with a winning record are 125-68 (64.8%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Chargers Thursday.

20* App State/LA-Lafayette Sun Belt GAME OF THE WEEK on Appalachian State -10

The Appalachian State Mountaineers are one of better football teams for a small school that not too many people know about. They have absolutely flown under the radar the past two seasons, including during their 11-win campaign from last year. They returned 15 starters from that squad and are just as good in 2016.

Appalachian State proved that in Week 1 when it nearly upset Tennessee in a 13-20 (OT) loss as 21.5-point road underdogs. While the Mountaineers didn’t fare as well against Miami a couple weeks later, the fact that they have played both Tennessee and Miami has prepared them for the Sun Belt conference season.  They won't play anyone close to as good as those two teams the rest of the way.

The other three teams they played they pretty much rolled. They beat Old Dominion 31-7 as 21-point favorites, Akron 45-38 as 4.5-point road favorites, and Georgia State 17-3 as 18.5-point home favorites. And they had a 21-point lead against Akron in the second half as that final score was misleading.

Louisiana-Lafayette’s best opponent faced so far was Boise State, which they lost 10-45 to at home and were outgained by 317 yards. They have also lost to both Tulane and New Mexico State. Their only two wins have come against FCS foe McNeese State by a final of 30-22 at home and South Alabama 28-23 at home.

Despite playing a much softer schedule than the Mountaineers, LA-Lafayette has done nothing that would be considered impressive thus far. And now they have to take a step up in competition here and won’t be ready for it. They certainly weren’t ready for the Mountaineers the past two seasons.

Indeed, Appalachian State has rolled LA-Lafayette each of the last two years. The Mountaineers won 35-16 on the road in 2014 as 8-point dogs while outgaining the Rajin’ Cajuns by 158 yards. They also won 28-7 at home last year as 22-point favorites while outgaining them by 156 yards.

Appalachian State once again has a dominant defense this season with nine starters back from last year. That defense has held Lafayette to a combined 23 points the past two seasons and an average of just 252.5 yards per game. The Mountaineers are holding opponents to 10.6 points per game less than their season averages, giving up just 22.6 points per game.

Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (LA LAFAYETTE) – a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record, in conference games are 43-14 (75.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Mountaineers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.  Bet Appalachian State Wednesday.

20* Bucs/Panthers ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Carolina Panthers -5.5

Both the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers are 1-3 on the season.  But while I believe the Bucs are every bit as poor as their 1-3 record, the Panthers clearly are not.  I look for that to show tonight as they get a blowout victory in this must-win situation.

Point differential is a great indication of how good a team really is.  Well, the Panthers are only getting outscored by 2.3 points per game, while the Bucs are getting outscored by 12.8 points per game.

Yardage differential is also another good indication.  The Panthers are actually outgaining teams by 38 yards per game, while the Bucs are getting outgained by 13 yards per game.  The Bucs have been particularly poor on defense, yielding 32.0 points per game this season.

The Bucs have some key injuries right now as well.  They are without DT Gerald McCoy and DE Noah Spence.  LB Lavonte David and CB Brent Grimes are questionable.  And RB Doug Martin and backup RB Charles Sims are both out for this game.  And Jameis Winston can't be trusted as he has already committed 10 turnovers this season.

The Panthers also have some injuries as they'll be missing Cam Newton and Jonathan Stewart.  However, Derek Anderson is one of the best backups in the NFL.  Anderson made two starts in place of Newton in 2014 and beat the Bucs twice, throwing for three TDs and zero interceptions.  Anderson went 17 of 23 for 172 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions in relief of Newton last week.

The Panthers have had the Bucs' number, going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings with five of those victories coming by 6 points or more, and four by 14 points or more.  Carolina is 6-0 ATS off a road loss over the last three seasons.  The Bucs are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.  The favorite is 13-4 ATS in the last 17 meetings.  Bet the Panthers Monday.

15* Bengals/Cowboys Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Cincinnati -1.5

The Cincinnati Bengals are the better team in this matchup with the Dallas Cowboys.  That will be proven on the field Sunday as the Bengals have no problem winning and covering as a short road favorite here.

Obviously, Cincinnati's two losses to Pittsburgh and Denver don't look bad at all now considering the Broncos and Steelers have proven to be two of the best teams in the NFL.  The Bengals took care of business in their two games against lesser opponents with a 23-22 road win over the Jets and a dominant 22-7 home win over Miami.

The Bengals are coming off a mini-bye after playing last Thursday against the Dolphins.  They thoroughly dominated in that game, outgaining the Dolphins 362 to 222, or by 140 total yards.  The effort from the defense was the most impressive, and a lot of that had to do with the fact that their best player in Vontaze Burfict returned from his 3-game suspension last week.

I still believe the Bengals are an elite team.  They have been statistically dominant this season, ranking 7th in yardage differential at plus-49 yards per game.  Only the Eagles, Seahawks, Ravens, Falcons, Broncos and Cardinals have been better in this department, so they're in some elite company.

While it's impressive that Dallas is 3-1 with a rookie quarterback, I believe the jury is still out on Dak Prescott, and he's likely to get exposed in the coming weeks.  After all, the Cowboys have played one of the softest schedules in the NFL to get that 3-1 start.

Dallas hasn't beaten a team that currently has a winning record.  It lost to the Giants, beat the Redskins, Bears and 49ers.  Those four teams are a combined 6-11 this season, and none of the four are very good defensively.  This Bengals' defense will easily be the best that Prescott and the Cowboys have faced.

I think Dallas' injury problems will finally come back to bite them this week.  They are missing two starting offensive linemen, star WR Dez Bryant is doubtful, CB Orlando Scandrick and DL David Irving aren't expected to play, and the most accurate kicker in NFL history is questionable in Dan Bailey.

The Cowboys are 1-9 SU in home games over the last two seasons.  The Bengals are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Dallas is 16-34-1 ATS in its last 51 home games.  It's well-documented that the Cowboys have no home-field advantage.  Roll with the Bengals Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Ravens -3.5

The Baltimore Ravens are 3-1 on the season and easily could be 4-0.  However, since they haven't covered the spread the last two weeks, they come into this game undervalued.

At the same time, I believe the Redskins are overvalued here due to covering the spread in each of the last two weeks in games they probably should have lost.  This has created some line value on the home team.

The Ravens outgained the Jaguars by 67 yards in their 19-17 victory as 2.5-point road favorites.  Then last week the Ravens outgained the Raiders by 151 yards, yet lost 27-28 in a game they should have won.  But that loss works in our favor here as the Ravens will come back highly motivated this week.

Meanwhile, the Redskins were outgained by 54 yards by the Giants two weeks ago in their 29-27 win.  The Redskins were also outgained by 79 yards by the Browns last week in their 31-20 win that was basically handed to them with three turnovers by the Browns in the 4th quarter.

The Ravens are every bit as good as their 3-1 record.  They actually rank 3rd in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 90.3 yards per game.  They are in some elite company as only the Eagles and Seahawks rank ahead of them, while the Falcons and Broncos are right behind them.

The Redskins rank 25th in yardage differential, getting outgained by 33.5 yards per game.  Their defense gives up a staggering 413.5 yards per game, while the Ravens only allow 256.0 yards per game, ranking No. 1 in the NFL in total defense.  The Redskins rank 29th in total defense, and I believe that will be the difference in this game.

The Redskins are 7-17 ATS in their last 24 games following a ATS win.  Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take the Ravens Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Browns +10.5

There is a lot of love for the Patriots this week from the betting public and the oddsmakers due to Tom Brady's return.  But I believe he'll be rusty here after barely playing in the preseason and not being able to practice with the team.  He isn't just going to come back in an NFL road game and light it up.

The Cleveland Browns may be the only winless team left in the NFL, but they easily could have won three games, and probably should have won at least a few of them.  But because they are 0-4 they are way undervalued right now.

The Browns led the Ravens 20-2, missed a field goal at the end of regulation before losing to Miami in OT, and blew a 20-17 lead in the 4th quarter against the Redskins last week by turning the ball over on three consecutive possessions.  They outgained the Redskins by 79 yards as well.

The numbers also support that the Browns are better than 0-4.  They are only getting outgained by 7 yards per game on the season.  They average 6.2 yards per play on offense and give up 5.8 yards per play on defense, outgaining teams by 0.4 yards per play.

Hue Jackson is a ground-and-pound coach dating back to his time with Cincinnati.  It is working in Cleveland, too, as the Browns actually rank 1st in the NFL in rushing at 149 yards per game and 5.7 per carry.  I believe the Browns will be able to control the ball with their ground attack in this one.

The Patriots are only 10-25 ATS in their last 35 games as double-digit favorites.  NFL underdogs getting more than 8 points at home are 28-9 ATS over the last 37 tries.  It's just a simply fact that when you find a double-digit home underdog, which is rare, you take them in the NFL.  And that's precisely what we'll do today.  Bet the Browns Sunday.

15* Washington State/Stanford ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington State +7

The Stanford Cardinal are one of the most fraudulent teams in college football.  That finally came to a head last week as Washington beat Stanford 44-6 as my 25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR.  While I love Washington, it was much of a play against Stanford as it was on the Huskies.

I could see that blowout loss to Washington coming from a mile away.  The Cardinal were outgained by 63 yards by Kansas State in their opener, only outgained USC by 51 yards in a misleading result, and needed a last-second touchdown to beat UCLA.  Their offense had been held without a TD until there were 24 seconds remaining in the UCLA game.

And make no mistake, this Stanford offense is terrible.  Christian McCaffrey is the only threat, but he can't do it all on his own.  The leader in receptions through four games outside of McCaffrey is Trenton Irwin with 12.  They will be without a key receiver this week in Francis Owusu as well.  This is an offense that is only averaging just 310 yards per game this season.

But the injuries may be even worse for the defense.  The Cardinal are without their top two cornerbacks in Alijah Holder and Quenton Meeks, just as they were last week against Washington.  But that's going to be an even bigger blow this week facing Washington State.

The Cougars love to spread you out in Mike Leach's Air Raid system.  They will have four receivers on the field at all times, so you're going to have Stanford's No. 5 and No. 6 corners forced into action.  The Stanford secondary is really going to get exposed this week.

And I believe Washington State is still flying under the radar due to the 42-45 opening loss to Eastern Washington.  But for whatever reason, the Cougars always seem to struggle with an FCS opponent to start the year.  But this is a 9-4 team from last year that had a chance to win the Pac-12 and brought back 14 starters, 8 on offense, and QB Luke Falk.

All the Cougars have done since that loss is go a perfect 3-0 ATS.  They nearly beat Boise State in a 28-31 road loss as 13-point dogs while racking up 520 total yards and outgaining the Broncos by 100 yards.  They then thumped Idaho 56-6 as they were supposed to, and crushed Oregon 51-33 last week while outgaining the Ducks by 232 yards.

This Washington State offense is the real deal.  It is putting up 44.2 points, 549 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play against opponents that are only allowing 33.8 points, 459 yards per game and 5.9 per play.  Falk is completing 74.3 percent of his passes for 1,495 yards with 12 touchdowns and two interceptions.  They are actually rushing for 161 yards per game and 5.4 per carry to show more balance than they ever have before as well.

But perhaps the biggest reason for the turnaround these last three weeks is the defense.  Leach finally has an above-average unit.  The Cougars are giving up 28.7 points, 425 yards per game and 6.6 per play against opponents that average 34 points, 476 yards per game and 6.9 per play.  They are holding opponents to 5.3 points and 51 yards per game less than their season averages.

And the key to stopping Stanford is stopping McCaffrey, and the Cougars are well-equipped to do it.  They are only giving up 131 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry against teams that average 169 yards per game and 4.9 per carry.  That's very impressive considering they've faced both Oregon and Boise State already.

And lastly, Washington State is going to want revenge from a 30-28 home loss to Stanford last season.  The Cougars outgained the Cardinal 442 to 312 for the game, or by 130 total yards, and should have won.  But they had to settle for five field goals and missed a sixth on the final play that would have won the game.  They also held McCaffrey to just 107 yards on 22 carries, which is no small feat.

Washington State is 8-1 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The Cougars are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games off an upset win as a home underdog.  Washington State is 8-0 ATS in its last eight vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cougars are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 conference games.  Take Washington State Saturday.

25* SEC West GAME OF THE YEAR on Arkansas +14

The Game of the Year line released before the season was Alabama -8.5 at Arkansas.  I've seen nothing from these two teams that would indicate this line should have shifted this much since the start of the season.  It has risen 6.5 points to -14.

To just give you an idea of how overvalued Alabama is right now, the Crimson Tide are the biggest road favorites they've ever been against a Top 25 opponent in the Nick Saban era.  The clear value is with the home underdog.

The Arkansas Razorbacks have really shown me a lot this season. Their 41-38 road win at TCU stands out the most, but even a 24-45 road loss at Texas A&M wasn’t nearly the blowout that the final score indicated.

The Razorbacks simply stalled in the red zone time and time again, turning a close game against the Aggies into a blowout in the fourth quarter as the Razorbacks were outscored 28-7 after intermission.

Quarterback Austin Allen is following in his brother’s footsteps brilliantly for the Razorbacks. He is completing 67.6 percent of his passes for 1,232 yards with 12 touchdowns and two interceptions while averaging 8.9 yards per attempt. He’s capable of making plenty of plays in the passing game to keep the Razorbacks competitive this week, and I would argue he's the best pocket passer in the SEC.

But Arkansas has some nice balance this year as it is averaging 198 yards per game and 4.8 per carry on the ground. Rawleigh Williams III has rushed for 559 yards and four touchdowns to lead the way. Drew Morgan has been Allen’s favorite target, catching 28 balls for 301 yards and a score.

Arkansas has been playing some solid defense once again this season, giving up 23.2 points and 374 yards per game against opponents that average 31.2 points and 457 yards per game. So it is holding opponents to 8.0 points and 83 yards per game less than their season averages.

Alabama has benefited from a pretty easy schedule this season with USC, Western Kentucky, Kent State and Kentucky resulting in blowouts. But in its only true road game, Alabama survived a 48-43 scare from Ole Miss as 11-point favorites. The Crimson Tide gave up 527 total yards to the Rebels, showing that their defense can be vulnerable.

Arkansas has played Alabama extremely tough the last two years. It only lost 14-13 in 2014 at home while actually outgaining the Crimson Tide 335 to 227 for the game. The Razorbacks also lost 14-27 as 15-point road underdogs last season.  They have had the lead against Alabama in the 3rd quarter each of the past two seasons.

Last year's meeting a 10-7 game entering the fourth quarter as the Crimson Tide put up 17 points in the final period to pull away. As you can see, the last two meetings were decided by a combined 14 points, so getting 14 points here is a gift from oddsmakers.

Plays against road favorites (ALABAMA) – after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in four straight games against opponent after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game are 38-11 (77.6%) ATS since 1992.

Bret Bielema is 7-0 ATS after two straight games where 60 total points or more were scored as the coach of Arkansas. The Razorbacks are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games after gaining 475 or more total yards per game over their last three games. The Razorbacks are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Northern Illinois +20

The Northern Illinois Huskies were expected to compete for a MAC Title this year.  After all, they have made an appearance in the MAC Championship Game in six consecutive seasons this decade.  Rod Carey is doing a tremendous job here.

However, after an 0-4 start to the season, everyone jumped off the Huskies' bandwagon.  They lost in triple-overtime to Wyoming, on two very good teams in South Florida and San Diego State, and then a shocking 23-28 home loss to Western Illinois.  They were only 7.5-point favorites in that game, but they never should have lost as they outgained WIU by 106 yards in that contest.

The Huskies didn't sweat as they knew their MAC opener was coming up, and they promptly played up to their potential in beating Ball State 31-24 as 3-point road dogs.  This game wasn't nearly as close as the final score as the Huskies outgained Ball State by 226 yards in the win.

Carey made the move to give senior Anthony Maddle his first start, and it paid huge dividends.  Maddle completed 26 of 41 passes for 298 yards with two touchdowns and one interception, while also rushing for 160 yards and a score on 14 carries.  The Huskies racked up 653 total yards in the win, and Maddle will get the start again this week.

Western Michigan, on the other hand, could not possibly be more overvalued than it is right now.  The Broncos are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS with two wins over Big Ten opponents in Northwestern and Illinois.  Then they opened conference play with a 49-10 thrashing of Central Michigan last week.  While the Broncos have been impressive, there's no way they should be 20-point favorites over rival Northern Illinois.

After all, Northern Illinois is 7-0 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Western Michigan.  The Huskies won 27-19 as 3-point home favorites last year and 31-21 as 8-point road dogs in 2014.  This will only be the second time that NIU will be an underdog to Western Michigan in the past eight years.

It's one thing to be an underdog, but to be a 20-point underdog is simply unwarranted.  There's no question that the Broncos will want revenge, and they may get it, but not by three touchdowns.  Carey and the Huskies just simply have their number, and they're coming off their best performance of the season to give them momentum.

One luck factor that has gone Western Michigan's way is turnovers.  In fact, the Broncos are the only team in the country that has yet to commit a turnover this season.  They are +9 in turnover differential.  Meanwhile, NIU is -4 in turnover differential and has only forced three turnovers this season.  These trends aren't likely to continue moving forward.

Plays against home favorites (W MICHIGAN) - after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game are 35-9 (79.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Northern Illinois is 13-0 ATS off an upset win over a conference opponent as an underdog since 1992.  It is winning these games by 21.0 points per game on average.  The Huskies are 20-7-2 ATS in their last 29 road games.  Northern Illinois is 15-3-1 ATS in the last 19 meetings.  Roll with Northern Illinois Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana +29

The Indiana Hoosiers are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They realistically should be 4-0 right now, but two weeks ago they lost to Wake Forest 28-33 despite outgaining the Demon Deacons by 259 yards. They committed five turnovers and gave that game away.

But the Hoosiers’ true colors showed last week in a 24-21 (OT) win over Michigan State as 5-point underdogs. This was a very evenly-matched game as the Hoosiers gained 437 yards while the Spartans had 438. It showed that they can play with the big boys.

Ohio State could not possibly be more overvalued than it is right now after opening the season 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS.  That's especially the case after beating Rutgers 58-0 last week.  The betting public is all over them, yet this line has dropped from an opening line of -32 down to -29, indicating that the sharp money is on the Hoosiers. And I agree that it should be.

Indiana boasts an offense that is putting up 499 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play against opponents that only allow 396 yards per game and 5.7 per play. Quarterback Richard Lagow has been awesome, completing 62.2 percent of his passes for 1,278 yards with nine touchdowns and six interceptions while averaging 10.1 per attempt.

Kevin Wilson has his best defense yet at Indiana. The Hoosiers are only giving up 21.7 points, 373 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play this season. Holding Michigan State to just 21 points last week was no small feat. Plus, the Spartans scored a TD with only 11 seconds remaining as they had basically been held to 14 points for the entire game.

Head-to-head history means a lot in this series. Indiana is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with Ohio State, having not lost by more than 28 points in any of the last seven meetings. That’s key when you consider this is a 29-point spread.  Kevin Wilson's aggressive, attacking style on offense has given the Buckeyes fits.

Last year, Indiana only lost 27-34 at home to Ohio State as 21.5-point underdogs. The Hoosiers also only lost 27-42 as 36.5-point road underdogs in 2014. They desperately want to end their 21-game losing streak to the Buckeyes.

And for whatever reason, the Buckeyes just don’t seem to get up to play the Hoosiers, and this streak could have something to do with it as they just feel like they have to show up to win.  I also wouldn't be surprised if Ohio State's young players get caught looking ahead to a big road game at Wisconsin next week.

Ohio State is 0-7 ATS in home games off one or more consecutive unders over the last three seasons. It is only winning by 9.4 points per game on average in this spot. Meyer is 3-14 ATS after gaining 7.25 or more yards per play in their previous game as the coach of Ohio State. The Hoosiers are 4-0 ATS in their last four conference games.  Take Indiana Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia Tech +2

The Virginia Tech Hokies are getting love here for good reason as this line has been bet down to +2 with all of the big money coming in on them.  I'm seeing the same thing that most sharps are probably seeing here.

First, VA Tech is one of the best teams in the country.  That has shown the last two games following a 24-45 loss to Tennessee in Bristol, which was a misleading score.  The Hokies held a 14-0 lead in that game, outgained the Vols by 70 yards, but lost the turnover battle 5-1 to let the game get away from them.

The Hokies responded with a 49-0 home win over Boston College as 6.5-point favorites, covering the spread by 42.5 points and outgaining the Eagles by 352 yards.  They then beat East Carolina 54-17 as 14.5-point favorites, covering the spread by 22.5 points.  That's the same ECU team that beat NC State earlier this year and should have beaten South Carolina.

But perhaps what I love most about this spot for the Hokies is that they are coming off a bye week.  They have had two full weeks to prepare for North Carolina.  And the players can use this extra time to grasp Justin Fuente's systems, which they have clearly caught on to quickly as you can see from their last two games.

Fuente created a monster in Memphis with their high-powered offense.  And he has done wonders for this VA Tech offense in a short time.  The Hokies are averaging 40.7 points, 449 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play against opponents that only allow 26.1 points, 358 yards per game and 5.2 per play.

Virginia Tech's defense remains elite as Fuente was able to retain revered coordinator Bud Foster.  This has been a very stingy bunch, giving up just 18.7 points, 264 yards per game and 4.2 per play on the season.

This couldn't be a worse spot for North Carolina.  After scoring two touchdowns in the final minutes to beat Pitt 37-36 at home two weeks ago, the Tar Heels stunned Florida State 37-35 on the road last week.  After that two-week stretch of emotional victories, I don't believe the Tar Heels are going to have anything left in the tank here, especially facing VA Tech off a bye.

VA Tech is going to want revenge from a 27-30 home loss to North Carolina last season.  I see this game playing out similarly to the 2014 meeting, where VA Tech went on the road and won 34-17 as 2.5-point favorites.

And while UNC has a great offense, the defense leaves a lot to be desired.  The Tar Heels are giving up 31.0 points, 459 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play this season.  The difference in this game is going to be defense, and I certainly side with Foster and company in this matchup.

I also think with the weather forecast due to Hurricane Matthew with the rains and wind it may bring, running the football is going to be very important.  Well, VA Tech rushed for 195 yards per game, while UNC only averages 136 rushing yards per game.  VA Tech only gives up 113 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry, while UNC allows 237 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry.

UNC is 10-30 ATS in its last 40 games after scoring 31 or more points in two straight games.  Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (N CAROLINA) - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games are 28-4 (87.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.

20* Clemson/Boston College ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Boston College +17

The Boston College Eagles have impressed me this season. They have taken care of business against their lesser opponents as they were supposed to with a 19-point win at UMass, a 32-point win over Wagner and another 32-point win over Buffalo.

Boston College also played Georgia Tech tough in the opener in a 14-17 loss in a game they should have won. They outgained the Yellow Jackets by 82 yards in that contest. And the 49-0 road loss to Virginia Tech was clearly the aberration.

Clemson is overvalued here after covering the spread in three straight games coming in. The betting public is all over the Tigers right now, and it’s certainly time to sell high on them. That’s especially the case considering this is a massive letdown spot off a huge win over Louisville Saturday.

Now Clemson is on a short week after expending a ton of effort and energy in beating Louisville 42-36, needing two touchdowns over the final seven minutes to pull out the victory. Meanwhile, Boston College cruised to a 35-3 win over Buffalo Saturday and will have more to give tonight.

Once again, Boston College has one of the best defenses in the country that can keep it competitive against almost anyone. It is only giving up 17.2 points, 202 yards per game and 3.6 yards per play. This is an elite unit that will have an answer for Deshaun Watson and company.

The Eagles certainly aren’t explosive on offense, but they have been better than they were a year ago. Patrick Towles has been a big upgrade at the quarterback position as he has thrown for 806 yards with six touchdowns and three interceptions while averaging 7.5 per attempt.

Boston College has had a knack of playing Clemson tough of late. In fact, the Eagles are 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings, and each of the last four meetings were decided by 17 points or less. Clemson has won them by 14, 10, 4 and 17 points, so the Eagles will be wanting some revenge here after coming so close.

Plays on home underdogs of 14.5 or more points (BOSTON COLLEGE) – after two or more consecutive straight up wins, with a winning record on the season are 35-9 (79.5%) ATS since 1992.

Boston College is 40-20 ATS in its last 60 games vs. a team with a winning percentage of better than 75%. Clemson is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 after allowing 525 or more yards in its previous game. The Tigers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Bet Boston College Friday.

20* Cardinals/49ers NFL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona -2.5

Carson Palmer isn’t expected to play in this game or the line would be much bigger. However, Drew Stanton has been a longtime backup for Bruce Arians and the Cardinals and he’s ready to fill in, especially after getting forced into action against the Rams last week.

Both of these teams are 1-3, but it’s clear to me that the Cardinals are much better than their record, while the 49ers are every bit as bad as their record. That’s evident when you look at yardage differential, which is one of the more telling stats as to how good a team really is.

Arizona ranks 4th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 68.5 yards per game. The top six teams are the Eagles, Seahawks, Ravens, Cardinals, Falcons and Broncos in that order, so they are in some elite company.

The problem the last two weeks with the Cardinals is that they have given two games away by committing too many turnovers. Indeed, they’ve committed a whopping 10 turnovers the last two weeks. That’s almost unheard of and a trend that is highly unlikely to continue.

The 49ers, on the other hand, rank 31st in the NFL in yardage differential. They are getting outgained by an average of 97.2 yards per game. They are only putting up 292.8 yards per game on offense, and they’re giving up 390.0 yards per game on defense. This team isn’t good in any area of the game right now.

Plus, the 49ers defense just lost their best player to an Achilles injury. NaVorro Bowman was the heart and soul of the defense at middle linebacker. He is irreplaceable and the one real star on this unit. I look for Stanton and company to have their way with this soft 49ers defense.

The Cardinals have won three of their last four meetings with the 49ers while outscoring them a combined 96-54 in the process. They won 47-7 at home last year and 19-13 on the road in the second meeting.

San Francisco is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games with a total set of 35.5 to 42 points. Bruce Arians is 13-4 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of Arizona. Arians is 21-7 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record in all games he has coached. Arians is also 10-1 ATS vs. poor rushing defense that allow 130 or more yards per game on the ground in all games he has coached.  Bet the Cardinals Thursday.

15* WKU/LA Tech Conference USA No-Brainer on Louisiana Tech +2.5

I realize the LA Tech Bulldogs are off to a poor start this season at 2-3, but it’s easy to see why when you look at their schedule. They have been underdogs in all three of their losses, which have all come on the road against some of the better teams in the country.

Louisiana Tech only lost 20-21 at Arkansas as 21-point underdogs in the opener. It also lost 45-59 at Texas Tech as 11-point dogs and 34-38 at Middle Tennessee as 4.5-point dogs. As you can see, the Bulldogs were competitive in all three losses.

The two home games the Bulldogs have played have resulted in blowout victories. They beat South Carolina State 53-24 in Week 2 and UTEP 28-7 last week. They are now 11-2 at home over the past three seasons with some very impressive wins along the way.

Western Kentucky’s only three wins this season have come against Houston Baptist, Miami Ohio and Rice, which are three of the worst teams in the country. And they only beat Miami Ohio 31-24 on the road as 17.5-point favorites and were actually outgained by the Redhawks.

WKU also lost at home to Vanderbilt 30-31 in overtime despite being 9.5-point favorites, and on the road at Alabama 10-38 as 27-point dogs. The Hilltoppers are now 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall, and I believe they’re being overvalued again here as road favorites over the Bulldogs.

Last year with a great team, WKU only beat Louisiana Tech 41-38 at home. Louisiana Tech won 59-10 at home over Western Kentucky in 2014. It’s clear that home-field advantage has been huge in this series, and I believe it will be again here as the value side is the home underdog Bulldogs.

LA Tech has played the tougher schedule of these two, and the numbers have been impressive. It is putting up 520 yards per game and 7.3 yards per play against opponents that only allow 445 yards per game and 5.9 per play. The defense is giving up 6.1 per play against opponents that average 6.1 per play. So the offense is elite, while the defense is average.

Western Kentucky is also averaging 7.3 yards per play, but against opponents that give up 6.5 yards per play. The Hilltoppers also have an average defense as they give up 4.7 yards per play against opponents that average 4.7 yards per play. They haven’t faced an offense outside of Alabama that is as good as this LA Tech outfit.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LOUISIANA TECH) – an excellent offensive team (at least 34 PPG) against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG), after allowing 14 points or less last game are 53-22 (70.7%) ATS since 1992. The Hilltoppers are 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 road games. The Bulldogs are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 280 passing yards in their previous game.  Take Louisiana Tech Thursday.

15* GA Southern/Arkansas St ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Arkansas State +8

The Arkansas State Red Wolves are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS to start the season. It’s clear that they are undervalued due to this start as the betting public wants nothing to do with them. And I think it’s time to jump on board this week.

I do not believe the Red Wolves are as bas as their record. They didn’t play well in losses to Toledo and Auburn to start the season, but that’s understandable against those two teams. But they have actually outgained their last two opponents in Utah State and Central Arkansas, but lost.

Arkansas State is getting better and will be hungry for its first victory here. Heck, it still has everything to play for as this will be the conference opener. And Phil Steele and many others picked the Red Wolves to win the Sun Belt this season, so there’s clearly talent here.

Georgia Southern is 3-1 this season with its only loss to Western Michigan. But I have to say the three wins aren’t that impressive. The Eagles have beaten Savannah State, South Alabama and Louisiana-Monroe with two of those games at home. And a 23-21 home win over ULM as 27-point favorites shows that perhaps the Eagles aren’t very good.

I like the switch to Justice Hansen at quarterback for the Red Wolves over the past two games. He threw for 277 yards against Utah State and then 424 against Central Arkansas, combining for four touchdown passes and three interceptions. He is averaging 10.1 yards per attempt this season, making the offense a lot more explosive than it was under Chad Voytik the first two games.

Arkansas State has had an awesome home-field advantage in recent years. The Red Wolves are 20-4 in their last 24 Sun Belt home games. Two of those losses were to Western Kentucky, which is now a member of Conference USA.

The Red Wolves are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games after gaining 325 or more passing yards in their previous game. Arkansas State is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 vs. a team with a winning record. The Red Wolves are 4-0 ATS in their last four conference games. Look for an inspired effort from them in their conference opener tonight.  Take Arkansas State Wednesday.

20* Giants/Vikings ESPN Monday No-Brainer on New York +5

I believe the Minnesota Vikings are being overvalued here due to their 3-0 start. They easily could have lost all three games, but they keep coming up with huge defensive plays that turn the game around. I believe their luck will run out this week.

The Vikings already have three non-offensive touchdowns this season, and it’s going to be impossible to keep up that pace. They had two against the Titans in Week 1, which allowed them to erase a 10-0 deficit and win 25-16. They had one last week against the Panthers that propelled them to their 22-10 victory.

But the Vikings only managed 211 total yards against the Panthers and were outgained by 95 yards. They were also outgained by 15 yards by the Titans, and they only outgained the Packers by 21 yards in their 17-14 home victory.

Yardage differential is a great way to compare teams and see how good they really are. Well, the Vikings rank 21st in yardage differential this season, getting outgained by 29.7 yards per game. The Giants rank 5th in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 57.0 yards per game.

The Giants opened the season with a 20-19 win over the Cowboys, then followed that up with a 16-13 win over the Saints in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score indicated. They outgained the Saints by 129 yards in that game. They also outgained the Redskins by 54 yards last week in their 27-29 loss.

As you can see, all three Giants’ games have been decided by three points or less and by a combined six points. That’s why this 4.5-point spread could easily come into play this week even if the Giants lose, though I do believe they are the better team based on those yardage differential stats and will win outright.

Simply put, Minnesota’s offense is awful. It is only averaging 265 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play against opposing defenses that give up 324 yards per game and 5.4 per play. With such a lackluster offense, the Vikings cannot be trusted when laying points as this will be the first time that they are favored by a field goal or more this season.

New York has had no trouble moving the football, putting up 397 yards per game and 6.5 per play. However, it’s the improvement on defense that makes the Giants so much better this year. They are only giving up 20.3 points, 340 yards per game and 5.1 per play against opponents that average 24.9 points, 405 yards per game and 6.3 per play. All that money they spent in the offseason to improve their defense is really paying off.

I have no doubt the Giants are going to be motivated following their loss to the Redskins last week, which has them undervalued. They will also be motivated to avenge a 17-49 loss at Minnesota in Week 16 last year in a fluky result. The Giants were only outgained 363 to 368 in that game, or by 5 total yards. The Vikings simply had a lot to play for as they were trying to win the division, while the Vikings had nothing at stake. That misleading result also has the Vikings overvalued here in the rematch.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY GIANTS) – after a game where they forced one or less turnovers against opponent after two consecutive games where they forced 3 or more turnovers are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

Turnovers are unpredictable, and the Vikings won’t keep getting them at their current rate as they are +8 in turnover differential through three games, while the Giants are -6. Minnesota is 0-7 ATS in its last seven Monday night games.  Bet the Giants Monday.

25* NBC Sunday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Pittsburgh Steelers -5

I have no doubt the Steelers will be foaming at the mouth this week. They are going to want to make up for their ugly 3-34 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles last week. Look for them to put their best foot forward this week and to get back on track with a blowout victory over the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Steelers opened the season with a dominant 38-16 win at Washington and a 24-16 home victory over the Cincinnati Bengals. Those two performances are more telling of what kind of team this is, which is one of the best in the NFL. The loss to the Eagles last week was the aberration.

But now the Steelers are undervalued this week because of that blowout loss, while the Chiefs are being overvalued due to their 24-3 win over the Jets. But the Jets basically gave that game away by committing a ridiculous eight turnovers. They actually had several chances to get back in that game and outgained the Chiefs by 12 yards.

I think last week was the aberration for the Chiefs, and the first two weeks were more telling as to what kind of team they really are. They should never have beaten the Chargers as they trailed 24-3 and eventually came back and won in overtime. And they were overmatched in a 12-19 road loss to the Texans in Week 2.

I just don’t believe the Chiefs have the firepower to keep up with the Steelers in this one. They are only averaging 332 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play on the season against teams that give up 345 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play. Jamaal Charles may return this week, but it won’t make that big of a difference as he will be limited if he does.

Meanwhile, the Steelers get a huge boost this week as star running back Le’Veon Bell returns from a 3-game suspension. Bell will get back into his workhorse role right away as he’s obviously chomping at the bit to get back on the field and help his team. I expect a huge game from him here.

It’s worth noting that the Steelers have won three of the last four meetings, and the home team is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Yes, the Steelers lost 13-23 on the road to the Chiefs last season, but it was Landry Jones who played the whole game at quarterback as Ben Roethlisberger sat out with an injury.

Plays on favorites (PITTSBURGH) – off a road loss, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 42-17 (71.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Mike Tomlin is 14-4 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game as the coach of Pittsburgh. The Steelers are holding opponents to 14.7 points per game and winning by 13.5 points per game in this spot.

The Chiefs are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Steelers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up loss.  Take the Steelers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Carolina Panthers -3

The Panthers are going to be highly motivated in this game. The Super Bowl runner-ups last year already have two losses and won’t be feeling too good about it. But there’s no question this is still one of the best teams in the NFL, and I expect them to go out and prove it Sunday.

The problem for the Panthers this season has been turnovers as they have committed eight of them already. Look for that to be a focal point for them in practice this week. Without the turnovers, they would be 3-0 right now because they have been statistically dominant otherwise.

Indeed, the Panthers are putting up 389 yards per game and 5.7 per play on offense against opponents that are only allowing 326 yards per game and 5.1 per play. Defensively, they are only giving up 273 yards per game and 4.9 per play against opponents that average 304 yards per game and 4.9 per play.

So they are outgaining opponents by 116 yards per game this season. That is actually the best mark in the NFL and shows that the Panthers are still an elite team. They outgained the Vikings by 95 yards last week and held them to just 211 total yards, so that final score of 22-10 was misleading to say the least.

Conversely, Atlanta has only committed one turnover through three games this season, which is the biggest reason it is off to a 2-1 start. But Matt Ryan was a turnover machine last year, so that is not going to last, and I really believe the Falcons are overrated right now because of their back-to-back road wins.

The betting public is enamored with Atlanta’s big offensive numbers this season, but it has played three of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Bucs, Raiders and Saints. This will be a huge step up in competition and will feel like they are going against a brick wall compared to what they’ve faced thus far.

Atlanta still has huge problems on defense that I expect the Panthers to exploit. The Falcons are giving up 30.3 points, 433 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play. They have given up at least 28 points in each of their first three contests. That’s not going to get it done this weekend.

Carolina did lose 13-20 at Atlanta last season in Week 15, but it was 14-0 at that point and really just looking ahead to the playoffs with the No. 1 seed already wrapped up. I think the previous two meetings will tell the story of how this one is going to play out.

The Panthers beat the Falcons 38-0 at home last year and 34-3 on the road in 2014. They outscored them a combined 72-3 in those two meetings. While I’m not expecting that big of a blowout this time around, I do believe the Panthers will have no problem covering a field goal.

It’s also worth mentioning that the Falcons are in a disadvantage with the fact that they are on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football last week. That was a big win for them because the Saints had their number previously, so they could be in a letdown spot here.

Carolina is 8-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons. Atlanta is 0-6 ATS off a win against a division rival over the last three seasons. The Falcons are 11-27 ATS in their last 38 home games following two more more consecutive wins. The Panthers are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games following a ATS loss. Atlanta is 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Tennessee Titans +5

The Tennessee Titans could easily be 3-0 right now instead of 1-2.  But that record has them undervalued heading into a divisional showdown against the Houston Texans this week.  The Titans are looking at this as a must-win to avoid falling to 1-3 on the season, so they'll be playing hungry.

That's especially the case after some calls didn't go their way late in last week's 10-17 loss to the Raiders.  The refs really lost the game for them.  Also, back in Week 1, the Titans were leading the Vikings 10-0, but gave up two defensive TDs after intermission and lost 16-25.  They went on the road in Week 2 and beat the Lions 16-15.

I really like this Tennessee defense, which is giving up just 19.0 points and 348 yards per game this season against opponents that average 25 points and 372 yards per game.  It is one of the most improved defenses in the NFL, and it is flying under the radar this season.

Houston's defense is legit as well, but the Texans just lost their best player in J.J. Watt likely for the season.  I loved the Titans at +6.5 early in the week, and I still love them at +5 here.  The line has obviously gone down because of the Watt injury, but if there's one defensive player that's worth 1.5 points in the NFL, it's certainly Watt.

The big reason to fade the Texans is because their offense is atrocious.  They are only averaging 14.0 points per game and 4.8 yards per play.  Brock Osweiler is the most overpaid QB in the NFL.  He has thrown four interceptions against three touchdowns while averaging just 6.4 yards per attempt.  He's a turnover machine who is more likely to lose games for the Texans than win them for them.

Tennessee didn't have Delanie Walker against the Raiders last week, but he's expected to return from a hamstring injury this week.  Also, No. 1 receiver Kendall Wright sat out the first three weeks with a hamstring injury, but he's going to make his season debut this week.  Having those two weapons back will certainly help out Marcus Mariota and the offense.

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (HOUSTON) - after a loss by 10 or more points against opponent after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half are 56-20 (73.7%) ATS since 1983.

Houston won both games with Tennessee last season, but Marcus Mariota didn't play in either meeting.  It was the woeful Zach Mettenberger at QB for the Titans.  So the Texans will be seeing Mariota for the first time, and the things he can do with his legs, especially behind an improved rushing attack, will give them problems.  Take the Titans Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Browns +8

The Cleveland Browns have been more competitive than most thought they would be coming into the season.  Their loss to the Eagles doesn't look as bad now, and they arguably should be 2-1 with wins the last two weeks, but instead they are 0-3 and undervalued because of it.

They led the Ravens 20-2 but managed to find a way to lose 20-25 in Week 2.  Then they missed a last-second field goal that would have won the game against the Dolphins on the road last week, eventually losing 24-30 in overtime.

One thing is certain, and it's the fact that the Browns have found their head coach of the future in Hue Jackson.  He's clearly getting the most out of his players as they are showing up every week, and I expect them to show up again this week as they try and get their first win of the season on against the Redskins.

It's time to sell high on the Redskins, who are coming off a huge 29-27 road win over the New York Giants last week. But they gave up 457 total yards to the Giants and probably should have lost.  The Giants committed three costly turnovers that proved to be the difference.

Washington cannot be trusted to lay this many points against anyone.  Not with a defense that is giving up 30.7 points, 424 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play.  In fact, Kirk Cousins is 0-6 ATS as a favorite as a starting QB for the Redskins, losing outright four times.  That's a 100% never lost system that I love in this game.

Terrelle Pryor has been a weapon for Cleveland's offense.  And I like what I've seen from the running game, which is averaging 145 yards per game and 5.7 per carry against opponents that only give up 96 yards per game and 3.9 per carry.

So, the Browns have been able to run the ball against three of the league's top run defenses thus far, and now they'll be up against one of the worst.  The Redskins give up 123 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry against opponents that average 111 yards per game and 3.9 per carry.  The Browns' ability to move the ball on the ground behind Pryor and Isaiah Crowell (274 yards, 6.1/carry, 2 TD) will be the difference.

Washington is 37-66 ATS in its last 103 games as a home favorite.  The Redskins are 20-44 ATS in their last 66 home games when playing against a team with a losing record.  Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON) - off an extremely close win by 3 points or less over a division rival, with a losing record are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Browns Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Jets +3

This is a tough spot for the Seattle Seahawks.  It's an early kick for a West Coast team, which is always difficult for them to navigate.  I don't believe the Seahawks should be favored here.

Seattle is overvalued off its 37-18 blowout win over a poor San Francisco 49ers team.  But remember in their only road game this season, the Seahawks lost 3-9 on the road to the Rams and couldn't get anything going offensively.

The Seahawks will struggle to move the ball against one of the NFL's top defenses this week.  That's especially the case with Russell Wilson hurt.  He just cannot seem to get healthy and was pulled from the game with a knee injury against the 49ers.  He'll try to gut it out, but he's still not the same QB he is when he's healthy and mobile and able to use his legs.

The Jets are way undervalued right now after a 24-3 loss at Kansas City.  But that was a misleading final score as the Jets committed eight turnovers in the loss and actually outgained the Chiefs.  Somehow they had several chances to get back in that game despite the turnovers.  Look for Ryan Fitzpatrick to make a point of taking better care of the football this week.

The Seahawks are still only scoring 17.3 points per game on the season even with their big effort against the 49ers.  They were held to 12 points in the opener by the Dolphins and 3 by the Rams.  The Rams have one of the best defensive lines in the NFL and harassed Wilson.  Well, the Jets also boast one of the best defensive lines, led by Leonard Williams, who already has three sacks.

With tough road games at Pittsburgh and Arizona on deck, New York is looking at this home game against Seattle as a must-win Sunday.  Look for the Jets to put their best foot forward and win this game outright.  The Seahawks are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  The Jets are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the Jets Sunday.

15* Oregon/Washington State Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington State +2.5
A 1-2 start has the Washington Cougars way undervalued right now.  This is a team that went 9-4 last season, including 6-3 in Pac-12 play, and contended for a Pac-12 title.  They returned 14 starters from that squad, including eight on offense.
But the Cougars are very close to being 3-0.  Their two losses have come by a combined 6 points, including an impressive 28-31 loss as 13-point road dogs to Boise State in which they gained 520 yards of offense and outgained the Broncos by 100 yards in the game.
The Cougars aren't phased by this start because they have everything to play for still as their Pac-12 opener is this week against Oregon.  Plus, they'll come in fresh, focused and prepared considering they are coming off a bye week and get two fulls weeks to get ready for the Ducks.  That's a huge advantage.
Oregon is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  It has lost its last two games to Nebraska and Colorado, including at home to the Buffaloes, and it has gone 0-3-1 ATS.  Yes the Ducks continue to get massive respect from oddsmakers here as road favorites over the Cougars.
Oregon has all kinds of injury issues with the biggest being the loss of their best receiver in Devon Allen.  Running back Royce Freeman is also banged up, though he expects to play this week.  The offensive and defensive lines have their injury troubles as well.
I like this matchup for the Cougars.  Oregon is rushing for 275 yards per game and 6.4 per carry as that is clearly its strength.  Well, the strength of the Cougars is their run defense.  They are only giving up 103 yards per game and 3.8 per carry on the ground this season.
Last year, Washington State went into Eugene and won 45-38 in overtime.  The Cougars outgained the Ducks 641 to 533 for the game, or by 108 total yards, so it clearly wasn't a fluke.  The Cougars only lost 31-38 at home to the Ducks as 23-point dogs back in 2014 as well.  They are starting to prove they can play with the Ducks, and this is the worst team Oregon has had in years.  It is alo probably the best team that Mike Leach has had at Washington State.
Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OREGON) - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games are 27-3 (90%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Ducks are allowing 32.5 points and 451 yards per game this season and will have their hands full with Luke Faulk and the WSU offense, which is putting up 42.0 points and 515 yards per game.  Roll with Washington State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on USC -10
The USC Trojans are primed for their best performance of the season Saturday.  They have played the toughest schedule in the country through the first four weeks, and they are clearly better than their 1-3 record.  I look for them to show that Saturday at home against Arizona State.
USC's three losses this season have all come on the road to Alabama, Stanford and Utah.  Those three teams are a combined 11-0 as of this writing.  They were only outgained by 51 yards by Stanford and actually outgained Utah by 10 yards.
I really liked what I saw in that Utah game as USC should have won but blew a 10-point fourth quarter lead in a hostile road environment.  I was impressed with freshman QB Sam Darnold, who threw for 253 yards without an interception.  Justin Davis rushed for 126 yards and a score on only 10 carries, and if they had given him the ball more late, they likely would have won.
Arizona State is overvalued due to its 4-0 start against a soft schedule.  It has played three games at home against Northern Arizona, Texas Tech and California.  It was fortunate to beat Cal last week.  And its only road game was an uninspiring 32-28 win at UTSA as 21-point favorites.  That game really exposed the Sun Devils as they actually trailed 28-12 in the second half before mounting a ferocious comeback late.
USC's talent level is far superior to Arizona State's, and that will show this week, just as it did last year.  USC went on the road and beat Arizona State 42-14 as 4-point favorites last year, and a similar result can be expect at home this time around.  Look for the Trojans to take out their frustrations on the Sun Devils Saturday.
Arizona State's defense has been atrocious this season.  It is giving up 34.2 points, 499 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play.  Darnold and company will be able to score at will in this game, which is why laying 10 points will not be a problem for the Trojans, who clearly have the superior defense and will get stops.
The Trojans are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up loss.  The Sun Devils are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games.  The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take USC Saturday.

15* Louisville/Clemson ACC No-Brainer on Clemson +2

The betting public is in love with Louisville right now as this line has moved five points from an opener of Clemson -3 to Louisville -2. I don’t agree with the move, and now see some nice value here with the home team.

Clemson didn’t wow anyone through the first three weeks. But the Tigers got into conference play, and their true colors showed last week against Georgia Tech. They won that game 26-7 in what was probably a bigger blowout than even the final score showed.

The Tigers outgained the Yellow Jackets by 318 yards for the game. They held them to just 124 total yards behind one of the best defenses in the country. They also got their offense going with 442 total yards in the win.

There’s no question that Louisville’s 63-20 home win over Florida State was impressive. However, the other three wins have come against Marshall, Syracuse and Charlotte. This will be by far the toughest test the Cardinals have faced this season, on the road in a hostile environment.

Clemson simply rarely loses at home. It is 35-2 at home over the last six seasons. Memorial Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the entire country, and the Tiger faithful will be out in full force in this game, especially considering it’s a night game.

I realize Louisville has played Clemson tough the last two years, losing 17-23 on the road in 2014 and 17-20 at home last year. However, last year’s game was a bigger blowout than that score would indicate.

The Tigers outgained the Cardinals 401 to 272 for the game, or by 129 total yards. They held the Cardinals to just 19 rushing yards on 28 attempts with an average of just 0.7 yards per carry. They have the type of speed on defense that will be able to contain Lamar Jackson from running wild, and they will make him try and beat them with his arm, which he has yet to prove he can do against a team of this caliber.

Louisville is 4-16 ATS in its last 20 games vs. good pass defenses that allow 150 or fewer passing yards per game. The Tigers have a big advantage in rest here as they last played on Thursday against Georgia Tech, getting an extra two days to prepare for the Cardinals.  Bet Clemson Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma -3.5

The Sooners have to be chomping at the bit to get back on the field. They were embarrassed on a big stage in a 24-45 loss to Ohio State two weeks ago. They desperately want to make amends for that defeat, and considering this will be their Big 12 opener, they still have plenty to play for the rest of the way despite losing two games already.

I look for an inspired effort from the Sooners, especially considering they had last week off and will be extra rested and prepared for this week’s tussle with TCU. Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs played last week against SMU and will be at a huge disadvantage because of it.

I really haven’t been very impressed with TCU this season. It lost at home to Arkansas in overtime, which lost to Texas A&M by 21 points last week. It also gave up 41 points to FCS foe South Dakota State in the opener, failed to cover as 24.5-point favorites in a 41-20 home victory over Iowa State, and was only leading SMU 6-3 at halftime last week before pulling away for a 33-3 victory.

Oklahoma’s two losses this season have come to national title contenders. It played basically a true road game in a 33-23 road loss to Houston in the opener. And the game against Ohio State wasn’t as big of a blowout as the 24-45 final would indicate. The Sooners were only outgained by 39 yards in that contest, but they lost the turnover battle 2-0, which was the difference.

Many are looking at TCU only losing 29-30 to Oklahoma last year and beating the Sooners in 2014 at home. But last year’s final was misleading as the Sooners actually outgained the Horned Frogs 536-390 for the game, or by 146 total yards. Baker Mayfield actually exited that game early. This was a 30-13 game before TCU made a ferocious comeback by outscoring the Sooners 16-0 in the 4th quarter.

When you look at the numbers, it’s easy to see that Oklahoma is still one of the best teams in the country. It is scoring 35.3 points and averaging 479 yards per game and 6.9 per play against opponents that are only giving up 19.1 points, 328 yards per game and 4.8 per play. Defensively, the Sooners are giving up 31.7 points, 401 yards per game and 5.6 per play against opponents that are averaging 42.2 points, 485 yards per game and 6.2 per play.

TCU is 0-6 ATS after outgaining its last opponent by 225 or more total yards over the last two seasons. The Sooners are 6-1 ATS in their last seven conference games. Oklahoma is 25-11 ATS in its last 36 games following a loss. Bob Stoops is 25-15 ATS following a loss as the coach of Oklahoma. The Sooners are coming back to win by 25.7 points per game on average in these spots.  Roll with Oklahoma Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Louisiana-Monroe +33

The Auburn Tigers are coming off a huge win over LSU last week by a final of 18-13.  They originally lost the game, but the refs overturned the call on the final play after LSU had scored a touchdown.  I believe now that Auburn is going to have a hard time getting up to play non-conference foe Louisiana-Monroe here Saturday.

And Auburn clearly cannot be trusted to lay 33 points to anyone when it has a hard time even scoring 33 points.  This Auburn offense has been awful again in 2016, averaging just 24.5 points per game on the season.  And that's inflated from the 51 points they scored against Arkansas State, which is one of the worst teams in the country.

Louisiana-Monroe has impressed me for the most part this season, going a perfect 3-0 ATS in its three games.  It beat Southern 38-21 as 14-point favorites, lost 17-59 at Oklahoma as 46-point dogs, and nearly upset Georgia Southern in a 21-23 road loss as 27-point dogs last time out.

Now, Louisiana-Monroe has had two full weeks to rest and prepare for Auburn, which is a huge advantage.  We've seen in the past few seasons Auburn struggling to put away supposed inferior opponents.  Last year they needed OT to beat Jacksonville State as 47-point favorites, and they only beat San Jose State by 14 as 20-point favorites, both of which were at home.

Louisiana-Monroe's numbers have actually been pretty good this season.  They are averaging 6.0 yards per play on offense against opponents that give up 5.9 per play, and they are giving up 5.8 yards per play on defense against opponents that average 6.1 yards per play.  I believe the Warhawks are one of the most underrated teams in the Sun Belt.

I also like what I've seen from the Warhawks' offense, especially quarterback Garrett Smith.  He is completing 58.4 percent of his passes for 742 yards with six touchdowns and three interceptions in three games.  But it's his legs that make him so tough to deal with.  Smith has already rushed for 177 yards and two touchdowns while averaging 5.2 yards per carry.  He's the type of QB who can keep the Warhawks competitive in this game against Auburn.

Auburn is 3-12 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last three seasons.  The Tigers are 2-10 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 5.9 or more yards per play over the last three years.  Auburn is 0-6 ATS in home games off two straight conference games over the last three seasons.  The Tigers are 0-6 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game over the last three seasons.

Auburn is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 home games.  The Tigers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.  Auburn is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a win.  The Warhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Louisiana-Monroe is 9-4-1 ATS in its last 14 road games.  The Warhawks are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.  Roll with Louisiana-Monroe Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Michigan -10.5

I’m on board with Michigan being one of the best teams in the country. They opened the season with dominant wins over lesser opponents in Hawaii and UCF, but against much better competition the last two weeks, they have kept the blowouts coming.

Colorado is obviously much improved this season as it just went on the road and beat Oregon last week. Well, Michigan beat Colorado 45-28 in Week 3. Then the Wolverines came back with a 49-10 win over Penn State last week while outgaining the Nittany Lions by 324 total yards.

The Wolverines are averaging 52.0 points and 467.7 yards per game behind one of the most improved offenses in the country. They finally found their quarterback in Wilton Speight, who is completing 63.2 percent of his passes for 875 yards with nine touchdowns and only one interception.

The defense is one of the best in college football again, giving up just 13.7 points and 269.7 yards per game. That’s really impressive when you consider their opponents average 32.3 points and 420 yards per game, so they are holding them to nearly 19 points and 150 yards per game less than their season averages.

I really believe that the Wisconsin Badgers are being overvalued here due to wins over both LSU and Michigan State. Well, LSU already has two losses and clearly isn’t as good as most thought they would be. Then, the Badgers caught the Spartans in a letdown spot last week after a big road win over Notre Dame the week prior.

Well, Michigan State’s win over Notre Dame is now discounted because the Fighting Irish have three losses on the season already after falling to Duke at home last week. And the Spartans actually outgained the Badgers by eight yards in a game that was much closer than the final score of 30-6 would indicate. The Badgers simply took advantage of four Spartan turnovers, including one that was returned for a touchdown.

I look for Wisconsin to get exposed this week against the best team it has faced by far. I’m not ready to look past Wisconsin’s 23-17 home win over Georgia State as 35.5-point favorites two weeks ago. The Badgers actually trailed in that game 17-13 in the fourth quarter.

Jim Harbaugh is 26-13 ATS as a favorite in all games he has coached. The home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The Wolverines are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. Wisconsin is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a win of more than 20 points.  Take Michigan Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on NC State -10.5

The NC State Wolfpack are well-rested and ready to go.  They have had two weeks off since their 49-22 win over Old Dominion.  Now they'll be looking forward to their ACC opener Saturday at home against Wake Forest and will put their best foot forward with all this extra rest and preparation.

I've been impressed with what I've seen from the Wolfpack this season.  Their offense is putting up 42.3 points, 496 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play.  Their defense is limiting opponents to 23.0 points, 311 yards per game and 5.1 per play.

Wake Forest could not possibly be more overvalued than it is right now due to its 4-0 start.  But it easily could have lost three of those games with the lone exception being a 38-21 home win over Delaware as 24-point favorites.

There's no question the Demon Deacons should have lost last week, but managed to win 33-28 as 7-point underdogs at Indiana.  They were outgained by 259 yards by the Hoosiers, but won the turnover battle 5-0, which is the only reason it was even a game.  Indiana gained a whopping 611 total yards against Wake Forest's defense.

NC State figures to have a big game offensively here.  That has been the case each of the last two seasons against Wake Forest.  NC State won 35-17 on the road last year and outgained the Demon Deacons 469 to 271.  NC State also won 42-13 at home in 2014 and outgained them 445 to 219.

Wake Forest has had a hard time scoring on NC State each of the last two years, and I don't expect that to change this season.  The Demon Deacons are averaging just 349 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play on offense this season.  While improved from last year, this is still one of the worst offenses in the country.

NC State is 29-14 ATS in its last 43 vs. teams who give up 17 or fewer points per game.  The Wolfpack are a sensational 19-4 ATS in their last 23 games following a bye week.  NC State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following a win of more than 20 points.  The home team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  The Wolfpack are 4-0 ATS in the last four home meetings.  Take NC State Saturday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oregon State +19

I was really big on Colorado coming into the season.  The Buffaloes have not disappointed, starting the season 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS with their only loss coming 28-45 on the road to Michigan.  They even beat Oregon 41-38 on the road last week as 14-point underdogs.

But now it's time to fade the Buffaloes.  They are way overvalued due to their 4-0 ATS start, and especially after their win over Oregon last week.  But now that set the Buffaloes up for a letdown spot here.  They are coming off back-to-back road games at Michigan and Oregon, and now they won't be able to get up for Oregon State this week, especially with another road game at USC next week.  This is the typical sandwich game.

I also felt like Oregon State would be a good team to back this season because they came in undervalued.  That has proven to be the case as they've gone 2-1 ATS.  They only lost 23-30 at Minnesota as 13-point dogs, and 24-38 to Boise State as 17-point home dogs.  So they have already proven they can play with Minnesota and Boise State, and those two teams might both be better than Colorado.

This has been a very closely-contested series the past two years.  The road team won each of the last two meetings with Oregon State winning 36-31 in 2014 and Colorado winning 17-13 last year.  Those were only 4 and 1-point spreads, respectively.  Now Colorado is being asked to lay 19 points to Oregon State, and it's simply too much and obvious that the Buffaloes are overvalued.

Oregon State is 33-15 ATS in its last 48 October road games.  Colorado is 11-24 ATS in its last 35 home games after having won two of its last three games coming in.  Gary Andersen is 26-13 ATS in road games in all games he has coached, including 18-6 ATS as a road underdog.  Bet Oregon State Saturday.

15* Texas/Oklahoma State ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on Texas +2.5

For starters, the Longhorns have had two full weeks to prepare for the Cowboys, which is going to be a huge advantage for them in this game.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma State is coming off a hard-fought 34-45 loss at Baylor last week. I question how much the Cowboys have left in the tank after three straight games that went down to the wire. They lost 27-30 to Central Michigan in Week 2 before coming back to beat Pittsburgh 45-38 in Week 3 after a two-hour weather delay.

When you look at the numbers, it’s pretty easy to see that the Longhorns are the superior team even without this rest advantage. They have outgained each of their first three opponents, including Notre Dame and Cal, which are no pushovers.

The Longhorns have a new high-powered offense that is putting up 44.7 points and 500.3 yards per game. And the defense hasn’t been as bad as advertised as the Longhorns are giving up 386 yards per game and 5.3 per play against opponents that averaging 454 yards per game and 6.2 per play, so they are holding them to 68 yards per game and 0.9 per play less than their season averages.

The team with the poor defense is the Cowboys, who are giving up 417.7 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play against teams that are only averaging 410 yards per game 5.7 per play. So, this is a below-average defense the Cowboys are sporting.

Texas got good news when it was announced Shane Buechele would play this week after being forced out of the Cal game with a chest injury. The two weeks off have certainly helped him, and he’s very important considering he’s completing 66.3 percent of his passes for 720 yards with seven touchdowns and two interceptions while averaging 8.4 yards per attempt through three games.

Home-field advantage has meant very little in this series. In fact, the road team is a perfect 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings. The road team has covered nine straight meetings. I look for this trend to continue, especially with the Longhorns having that rest advantage.

Charlie Strong is 15-2 ATS in road games after one or more consecutive losses in all games he has coached. Strong is 8-0 ATS in road games after a game where his team forced no turnovers in all games he has coached. The Longhorns are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog of 7 points or less.  Bet Texas Saturday.

25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington -2.5

The Washington Huskies were a popular pick to compete for a Pac-12 Championship coming into the season. In fact, I actually picked the Huskies to win the conference. They had 15 starters back this season and one of the most talented young rosters in the country.

But after needing overtime to beat Arizona on the road last week, I think a lot of people have lowered their expectations on the Huskies. I’m not one of them. I believe that close win has the Huskies undervalued here heading into their biggest game of the season. Had they blown out Arizona like they were supposed to, they would be much more than 2.5-point favorites here.

I also think that close win over Arizona will benefit the Huskies mentally. They needed a close game to test their intestinal fortitude after three straight blowout win to open the season, and they responded by scoring in the first overtime and holding on defense. That close win will benefit them the rest of the season because they are battle-tested now.

Stanford is also battle-tested having faced three pretty tough opponents and beating them all in Kansas State, USC and UCLA. Only one of those games was on the road, though, and they should have lost at UCLA last week.

The Cardinal trailed almost the entire game before getting a touchdown with 24 seconds left to go up 16-13. Their offense was held to three field goals before that drive. Then they got a fumble recovery and returned it for a TD on the final play, winning 22-13 when the game was much closer than that. I actually think that extra score has the Cardinal overvalued here. Had they lost to UCLA like they should have, Stanford would be a bigger underdog this week.

It’s clear that Stanford has issues offensively that aren’t really fixable. It is only averaging 25.0 points and 342 yards per game this season. The only offense has been Christian McCaffrey as they are too predictable. First-year starter Ryan Burns hasn’t been able to produce much in the passing game, throwing for just 402 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions while averaging 6.9 yards per attempt.

Now Burns is going to be up against the best defense in the Pac-12 in one of the most hostile atmospheres in all of college football at Husky Stadium. Washington is holding opponents to 14.5 points, 320.7 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play. The Huskies had the best defense in the Pac-12 last year, and they returned seven starters on that unit this year.

Washington may also have the best offense in the Pac-12. It is putting up 45.7 points, 445.2 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play this season. Both Jake Browning and Myles Gaskin are now sophomores after starting as freshmen last season and producing big numbers.

Browning is completing 70.5 percent of his passes for 904 yards with 14 touchdowns and two interceptions. Gaskin has rushed for 302 yards and two touchdowns. Four receivers have at least 10 receptions this season, including Joe Ross (17, 195, 5 TD), who missed all of last season due to injury. Ross is their best playmaker on offense and special teams, so it’s huge to have him back healthy.

Plays on home favorites (WASHINGTON) – after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in four consecutive games, with eight or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 57-25 (69.5%) ATS since 1992.

Chris Petersen is 26-9 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games in all games he has coached. Petersen is 15-5 ATS after two ore more consecutive ATS losses in all games he has coached. The Huskies are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games following a ATS loss. The home team is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet Washington Friday.

15* Kansas/Texas Tech Big 12 No-Brainer on Kansas +28.5

The betting public is infatuated with high-scoring offenses like Texas Tech. That’s why it is no surprise this line is over four touchdowns. They oddsmakers have to set it that high to try and get some action on Kansas to even out the betting.

That’s why I believe the value is with the Jayhawks in this game. While the Red Raiders have an explosive offense, they also boast one of the worst defenses in the country. And even Kansas is going to be able to put up plenty of points on this Texas Tech defense.

The Red Raiders are allowing 43.3 points, 513.3 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play. Their last two games have been laughable as they gave up 68 points to Arizona State and 45 to Louisiana Tech.

Kansas is coming off a 7-43 loss to Memphis last time out, which also has it undervalued here. But a deeper look shows that game was much closer than the final score indicated. The Jayhawks gave it away by committing six turnovers, losing the turnover battle 6-to-0. But they were only outgained by 80 yards as they held the high-powered Memphis offense to only 394 total yards.

It’s clear to me that the Jayhawks are vastly improved this season. I think the nearly two weeks to prepare for this game against Texas Tech will help the Jayhawks more than it will the Red Raiders. They’ll be able to correct their mistakes from the six-turnover game against Memphis and come up with a proper game plan.

The numbers suggest that the Jayhawks are an average team this season. They are averaging 5.9 yards per play on offense against defenses that are giving up 5.9 yards per play. They are also allowing only 4.9 yards per play on defense against offenses that average 5.3 yards per play.

Texas Tech just can’t be trusted to lay this many points, and that has been proven in recent meetings in this series. Three of the last four meetings were decided by 13 points or less. Texas Tech was a 33-point favorite over Kansas last year and only won 30-20. They also won 34-21 at home in 2014 and 41-34 (OT) as a 24.5-point home favorite in 2012. Those Kansas teams were worse than this one, too.

Plays on road underdogs of 21.5 or more points (KANSAS) – after failing to cover the spread in two out of their last three games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 92-44 (67.6%) ATS since 1992.

Kansas is 24-11 ATS in its last 35 games vs. bad defensive teams that give up 31 or more points per game. Kliff Kingsbury is 0-6 ATS off three straight games where 60 total points or more were scored as the coach of Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Take Kansas Thursday.

20* Dolphins/Bengals AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami +7

Both of these teams are in desperate need of a win as they cannot afford to fall to 1-3 if they want a realistic chance of making the playoffs. Many see the Bengals as the more desperate team here, which is why they are getting so much respect from oddsmakers. But the motivation is dead even in my opinion.

I also think the Bengals are being overvalued because of what they’ve done in year’s past. They overachieved the last few years, and they have come back down to reality this season. They could easily be 0-3 as they barely beat the Jets 23-22 on the road in Week 1 in a game they were very fortunate to win.

I think the Bengals’ true colors have shown the last two weeks in big losses to the Steelers and Broncos. They lost 16-24 on the road to the Steelers, and then last week they lost 17-29 at home to the Broncos. They gave up 303 passing yards to a Denver team that isn’t known for throwing the football.

Trevor Siemian, a first-time starter this year, threw for 312 yards and four touchdowns on this Bengals defense without an interception. Ryan Tannehill is better than Siemian, and now he’s finally in an offense that is allowing him to be successful with QB guru Adam Gase calling the shots.  Tannehill is completing 64.6 percent of his passes for 892 yards while averaging a healthy 7.9 yards per attempt.

I think the Dolphins are being undervalued because they needed OT to beat the Browns last week. But they lost the turnover battle 3-to-1 in that game, which was the only reason it was close. And the Browns have proven to be more competitive than most thought they would be.

The Dolphins’ true colors showed when they nearly beat both Seattle and New England on the road in the first two weeks. The Seahawks needed a last-second TD to beat the Dolphins 12-10 at home in Week 1. The Patriots only beat the Dolphins 31-24 because they won the turnover battle 4-to-1.

If Miami takes care of the football, it will have a chance to win this game outright, because there isn’t much difference between these teams in my eyes. And all three of Miami’s games have been decided by a touchdown or less this season, so that fact alone shows there is value in getting a full touchdown here against the spread.

Miami is averaging 6.3 yards per play against opponents that are giving up just 5.5 yards per play. Miami is giving up 5.7 yards per play on defense against opponents that are averaging 5.8 per play. Those numbers show that they are an above-average team, especially considering the talent level of the opponents they have played.

Plays on road teams (MIAMI) – in a game involving two excellent passing teams (averaging at least 7.3 passing yards per attempt), after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 33-11 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Marvin Lewis is 3-14 ATS in home games vs. excellent passing teams that average 7.5 or more yards per attempt as the coach of Cincinnati. Lewis is 8-18 ATS against AFC East opponents as the coach of the Bengals. The Dolphins are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Cincinnati.  I look for this game to be decided by less than a TD one way or the other.  Bet the Dolphins Thursday.

20* Falcons/Saints ESPN Monday No-Brainer on New Orleans Saints -2.5

The New Orleans Saints are 0-2 on the season and will be hungry to get their first win on ESPN's Monday Night Football in one of the toughest places to play in the Superdome.  Look for them to come out victorious by a field goal or more against the Atlanta Falcons.

The Saints could easily be 2-0.  Their two losses have come by a combined four points.  They gave up 22 points in the 4th quarter to the Raiders and lost 34-35 in Week 1.  The Raiders converted a 4th down on a bogus pass interference penalty to extend their final drive, and then went for 2 and got it after scoring a TD.  The Saints missed a field goal at the buzzer.

Last week, I was impressed with how tough the Saints played the Giants on the road in a 13-16 loss.  Their defense held the Giants' offense to only three field goal.  The Giants' only touchdown came on a blocked field goal that was returned for a score.

I know the Saints' defense isn't spectacular by any means, but the Falcons have been just as bad if not worse on that side of the ball.  They are giving up 29.5 points and 412.5 yards per game, as well as 73.1% completions and 290 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. The Saints still have an elite offense, and Drew Brees and company will take advantage.

New Orleans has owned Atlanta under Sean Payton.  Indeed, the Saints are 15-5 in 20 meetings with the Falcons under Payton's watch.  They swept the season series last year with a 31-21 victory at home and a 20-17 road win as 6-point underdogs.

This will be the 2nd straight road game for Atlanta, and I just can't see it escaping both Oakland and New Orleans with victories.  The Falcons are 33-56 ATS in their last 89 games after scoring 30 points or more in their previous game.  Atlanta is 20-43 ATS in its last 63 games after gaining 6.5 or more yards per play in its previous game.

Payton is 22-9 ATS off a road loss as the coach of New Orleans.  Payton is 18-6 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less as the coach of the Saints.  They are bouncing back to win by 10.5 points per game on average in this spot.  The Falcons are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Atlanta is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 vs. NFC opponents, and 1-7 ATS in its last eight division games.  The Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last five division games.  The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet the Saints Monday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Redskins +3

The season is on the line this week for the Washington Redskins.  They can't afford to fall to 0-3, and they know it.  Look for them to come out with their best effort of the season as a result.

The Redskins are undervalued due to their 0-2 start.  Everyone is talking about how Kirk Cousins is playing terrible, and while his interceptions are concerning, it's not like the Redskins are having any trouble moving the football.

In fact, the Redskins are averaging 408 yards per game and 6.9 per play on offense.  They are passing for 339 yards per game and 7.6 per attempt.  While they aren't running the ball much, they are still averaging a healthy 4.7 yards per carry.  So, no, the offense isn't broken.

The Giants are way overvalued due to their 2-0 start when they could easily be 0-2.  Their two wins have come against the Cowboys and Saints by a combined 4 points.  Their defense is improved this season, but their offense has been terrible.

The Giants only beat the Saints 16-13 last week, and their only touchdown came on a blocked field goal that was returned for a score.  Their offense was held to three field goals against the Saints' hapless defense.

Washington has been statistically dominant in its last three meetings with New York.  It is averaging 391 yards per game offensively and giving up only 327 yards per game, outgaining the Giants by 64 yards per game.

One key to this game is that Josh Norman is expected to shadow Odell Beckham Jr. all over the field.  The Redskins made the mistake of not putting Norman on Antonio Brown in Week 1, and it cost them.  They won't make the same mistake again.

Washington is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games as a road underdog.  Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NY GIANTS) - in conference games, off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite are 27-6 (81.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Take the Redskins Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Tennessee Titans +1

I was on the Titans last week and I'm on them again this week.  They went on the road and beat the Detroit Lions 16-15 outright as 5.5-point underdogs.  They realistically should be 2-0, too.

The led Minnesota in Week 1 10-0 at halftime before giving up a pair of defensive touchdowns in the 2nd half.  They held the Vikings to just four field goals and zero offensive touchdowns.

This Titans defense is obviously legit as it held the Lions to 15 points last week after the Lions had scored 39 points against the Colts the week prior.  They are holding opponents to 338 yards per game and 5.5 yards per play thus far.

The Oakland defense has been the worst in the NFL through two weeks.  The Raiders allowed over 500 yards in each of their first two games, and they are giving up 34.5 points, 517 yards per game and 8.1 yards per play thus far.

The Raiders realistically should be 0-2 because they got lucky to beat the Saints in Week 1 with the held of a phantom pass interference call.  They needed 22 points in the 4th quarter to come back and win that game 35-34.  Then they lost 28-35 at home to the Falcons last week.

This is a tough trip for a West Coast team like the Raiders, who will be traveling out East for a 1:00 EST kick, which is 10:00 local time in Oakland.  Teams don't usually do very well in this spot, and I don't trust the Raiders here, especially with their atrocious defense.

Tennessee wants revenge from a 24-21 home loss to Oakland last season in which the Raiders rallied late on a Derek Carr touchdown pass to Seth Roberts.  Marcus Mariota threw three touchdown passes in the loss and should find plenty of success here.  He also has the help of an improved running game behind DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry this time around.  Bet the Titans Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Carolina Panthers -7

I believe the Minnesota Vikings are in a massive letdown spot here.  They are coming off a huge upset win at home against the Green Bay Packers on NBC's Sunday Night Football last week.  Off such a huge win against their biggest rival, the Vikings will be lacking a little bit of focus this week.

That was a huge stage against the Packers because it was their first home game inside their new stadium.  Sam Bradford played well, but now he's going to be playing his first road game of the season, and it just so happens to come against one of the best defenses in the NFL.

Things got even tougher for Bradford when it was announced that both LT Matt Kalil and RB Adrian Peterson were placed on injured reserve after suffering injuries in that Packers win.  I know Peterson hadn't put up big numbers through two weeks, but make no mistake, he is their most important player and will be missed badly.  Also, DT Sharrif Floyd is out Sunday, while top corner Xavier Rhodes is questionable.

The Panthers got a wake up call in a 20-21 loss at Denver in a game they arguably should have won.  But clearly, there was nothing wrong with them last week as they beat the 49ers 46-27 in a game that was probably a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  The Panthers committed four turnovers, yet still won by 19 because they outgained the 49ers by 227 yards behind 529 yards of total offense.

Fading road teams that won their previous game as a home underdog like the Vikings has produced a 151-106 ATS record since 2003.  These teams are consistently overvalued off a big upset home win.  The Panthers are 9-2 ATS at home since the start of last season, including 4-1 ATS when favored by at least seven points.

Plays on home favorites (CAROLINA) - good team from last season - outscored opponents by 4 or more points/game, after scoring 30 points or more last game are 41-14 (74.5%) ATS since 1983.  Minnesota is 4-16 ATS in its last 20 games off an upset win as a home underdog.  The Panthers are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 home games dating back further.  Take the Panthers Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Jacksonville Jaguars +1

The Jacksonville Jaguars are 0-2 and cannot afford to fall to 0-3 on the season.  They will be putting everything into this game against the Baltimore Ravens, and I look for them to come out victorious Sunday.

The Jaguars are undervalued due to their 0-2 start.  But they have been more competitive than their record has shown.  They arguably should have beat the Packers in a 23-27 home loss in Week 1.  They actually outgained the Packers by 54 yards in that game and held them to 294 total yards.

Last week's 14-38 loss at San Diego wasn't that big of a blowout, either.  The Jaguars actually outgained the Chargers by 31 yards for the game and held them to 357 yards.  But they lost the turnover battle 3 to 1 and ended up giving the Chargers way too many easy scoring opportunities.

The Ravens clearly have plenty of issues of their own.  I wasn't impressed with their 13-7 home win over the Bills in their opener as the Bills are a mess right now.  And they trailed Cleveland 20-2 before Josh McCown got hurt, and they proceeded to come back and win 25-20 after that point.  They gave up 387 total yards to the Browns.

Yards per play is a great stat.  The Jaguars are averaging 5.8 yards per play on offense and giving up 5.5 per play on defense, and that's come against two very good teams in the Packers and Chargers.  To compare, the Ravens are averaging only 5.2 yards per play on offense and giving up 5.4 per play on defense.  And again, that's come against the Browns and Bills, two of the worst teams in the NFL.

Plays on underdogs or pick (JACKSONVILLE) - bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games, in conference games are 66-34 (66%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The home team is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The Ravens are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings.  Jacksonville won in Baltimore 22-20 as 5-point dogs last year.  Roll with the Jaguars Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Arizona Cardinals -3.5

I know I'm on the public side of this one, but there is no scenario where I don't foresee the Cardinals blowing out the Bills.  So I'm going to overlook the fact that the Bills have extra prep time, and this in an early kick for a West Coast team in the Cardinals.  Those are two situations I don't normally like going against, but I can't help it here.

This line has been bet down from 6 to 3.5 as a lot of sharp action has come in on the Bills because of the situation that would normally benefit most teams.  But the Bills are in such a world of hurt that I don't think it's going to help them here.  And now that the Cardinals are only 3.5-point favorites, I believe there is serious value.

Buffalo has all kinds of issues, and it starts with their injuries.  They lost two rookies who were expected to start in the offseason in LB Reggie Ragland and DE Shaq Lawson.  Their best defensive lineman in Marcell Dareus was already out the first four games with a suspension.  Then they lost LB Ik Enemkpali, who was expected to play a significant role.

The Bills are also without OT Seantrel Henderson and OT Cordy Glenn.  But the biggest injury is on offense, where WR Sammy Watkins is doubtful to play Sunday with an ankle injury.  Without Watkins, the Bills have no explosive element to their offense and are way too predictable.

The Cardinals thrive on teams who are predictable.  They have one of the league's best defenses, and that was on display last week as they beat the Buccaneers 40-7 and forced five turnovers in the process.  Look for them to harass Tyrod Taylor in this one as he simply doesn't have the weapons to make plays against them.

I firmly believe the Cardinals took the Patriots too lightly in the opener, which is why they lost 21-23.  They weren't as excited to play them as they would have been if Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski would have been in the lineup.  They came back last week against the Bucs and showed their true colors in their 33-point victory.

Back to the issues for the Bills, their injury/suspension-ravaged defense gave up 37 points and 493 total yards to the Jets last week.  You can only imagine what a high-powered offense like Arizona is going to do to them.  Ryan Fitzpatrick had a career game with 374 passing yards and a touchdown.  Carson Palmer should have a nice day at the office as well.

Buffalo was outgained by 148 yards by Baltimore and by 100 yards against New York.  The Bills are averaging 5.8 yards per play on offense and giving up 6.1 yards per play on defense.  The Cardinals are averaging 6.3 yards per play on offense and allowing a mere 4.9 yards per play on defense.

Arizona is 8-3 ATS as a road favorite under Bruce Arians.  Arians is 7-0 ATS in road games after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game as the coach of Arizona.  The Cardinals are winning these road games by an average of 12.9 points per game.  Bet the Cardinals Sunday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Marshall +27

This is the perfect spot to fade Louisville, which could not possibly be more overvalued than it is right now after its 3-0 start.  The Cardinals are coming off a 63-20 win over Florida State last week that has the betting public in awe.

So they're in a letdown spot after beating FSU, plus they are in a lookahead spot with Clemson on deck next week.  That makes this a sandwich game for the Cardinals, and I'm very confident that they will be flat against Marshall this week because of it.

At the same time, Marshall could not be more undervalued after an ugly 38-65 loss to Akron at home last week.  That was after a 62-0 home win over Morgan State to open the season, and now this will be just their 3rd game of the year.

But that loss to Akron was far from as bad as it looks from the score.  The Thundering Herd actually outgained by 36 yards in the game and racked up 560 yards of offense.  Marshall committed four turnovers in that game, and two of them were returned for touchdowns.  Akron also blocked a punt and returned it for a touchdown, scoring three non-offensive touchdowns, which is hard to do.

The Thundering Herd will regroup this week at home as this is their Super Bowl against Louisville.  Huntington, West Virginia is a place where teams have gone to die in recent years.  Indeed, Marshall is 18-1 straight up at home over the last four seasons.  That loss to Akron was simply an aberration.

Plays against road favorites (LOUISVILLE) - excellent rushing team (230-plus yards/game) against a team with an excellent rushing defense (100 or fewer yards/game), after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game are 29-9 (76.3%) ATS since 1992.

The Thundering Herd are 15-2-1 ATS in their last 18 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Marshall is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 home games overall.  The Thundering Herd are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss.  Marshall is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a loss by more than 20 points.  Roll with Marshall Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Northwestern +7.5

The Northwestern Wildcats are undervalued right now after starting 0-2 with losses to Western Michigan and Illinois State.  While those were upsets, they were only 3-point favorites and 12.5-point favorites respectively, so they weren't out of the realm of possibility.

But the Wildcats bounced back nicely last week by beating Duke 24-13.  Clayton Thorsen threw for a career-high 320 yards and three touchdowns in the win.  The defense stepped up again and is playing well, limiting opponents to 14.7 points per game on the season.

Now the Wildcats enter conference play and realize that those losses don't matter now.  You'd love to have those games back, but you are your record -- and you have to work to get better," said Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald. "I think it just shows if you have perseverance and grit and you stay the course that you can do whatever you set your mind to."  That's what he had to say after the Duke victory.

Nebraska is overvalued due to its 3-0 start.  The Huskers needed a late touchdown to cover against Fresno State 43-10 as 29-point favorites, they were in a 24-17 game against Wyoming in the 4th quarter, but exploded for 28 points in the final period thanks to six turnovers from the Cowboys in a 52-17 win as 26.5-point favorites.

Then with under three minutes left last week, the Huskers put together a game-winning drive to beat Oregon 35-32 on a 34-yard run from QB Tommy Armstrong.  Players were calling that a 'statement win' after the game, and now I believe they are in a letdown spot here this week, not to mention overvalued as stated before.

Nebraska is just 1-4 in road openers since joining the Big Ten.  Its only win came against hapless Purdue in 2013 as 13-point favorites.  The Huskers lost their road opener last year at Illinois.  They will likely lose again this week to Northwestern, but we'll take the points for some insurance.

This has been a very closely-contested series to say the least.  In fact, five of the last six meetings were decided by 3 points or fewer.  That includes a 30-28 road win last year for Northwestern as 7-point dogs.  The only exception was in 2014 when Northwestern blew a 17-14 halftime lead and was shut out after intermission.  There's a good chance this game is decided by a TD or less either way.

Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NORTHWESTERN) - first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with four or more wins in last five games, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first month of the season are 26-7 (78.8%) ATS since 1992.

Northwestern is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games as a home underdog of 7.5 to 10 points.  Mike Riley is 5-15 ATS in road games in the first month of the season in all games he has coached.  The Wildcats are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take Northwestern Saturday.

15* Penn State/Michigan Big Ten No-Brainer on Penn State +19

The Michigan Wolverines are way overvalued here in my opinion due to three straight blowouts against very weak competition. They are also the No. 4 team in the country. These blowouts and that ranking have the betting public way too high on them right now.

But when you dig deeper into the numbers, you will find that Michigan hasn’t been as dominant as it appears. It is outscoring Hawaii, UCF and Colorado by 38.0 points per game, but only outgaining them by 156.0 yards per game. That doesn’t really add up as you would expect to see a bigger yardage differential with that point differential.

Colorado played Michigan to a tougher game than the 45-28 final would suggest. There’s no way the Wolverines should have scored 45 points with just 397 yards of total offense, but they got two special teams touchdowns. Colorado was actually leading this game 28-24 in the 3rd quarter, but then its starting QB Sefo Liufau got knocked out of the game, and the Wolverines scored 21 straight points to finish and pull away.

I really like what I’ve seen from Penn State thus far and know that it is vastly improved from a year ago, especially offensively. The offense held the Nittany Lions back last year with Christian Hackenberg, but that’s no longer the case now that Trace McSorley is running the show.

Indeed, McSorley has led the Penn State offense to an average of 35.3 points per game this season against a much tougher schedule than Michigan has faced. They put up 33 against Kent State, 39 against Pitt and 34 against Temple. McSorley is completing 64.4 percent of his passes for 828 yards and four touchdowns against two interceptions, while also rushing for 38 yards and a score.

And that Temple game was a bigger blowout than the 34-27 final last week.  The Nittany Lions controlled the game with a 21-13 edge in first downs.  They fumbled near the Owls' goal line, costing them seven points in the 2nd quarter.  Temple scored on a 9-yard touchdown drive after an interception.  A late fourth-quarter punt went off a Penn State blocker and rolled 30 yards to the 1-yard line, where Temple eventually scored.  The Nittany Lions only won by seven, failing to cover by a single point as 8-point favorites after Temple got a late 34-yard field goal.

This has been a closely-contested series in recent years as each of the last four meetings were decided by 12 points or less. In fact, you have to go all the way back to 2001 to find the last time Michigan beat Penn State by more than 19 points. That was a 20-point win and 11 meetings ago.

Michigan is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games after scoring 31 points or more in three straight games. The Wolverines are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. James Franklin is 8-0 ATS off a no-cover where his team won straight up as a favorite in all games he has coached. His teams are winning in this spot by 22.3 points per game on average.  Take Penn State Saturday.

25* SEC East GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee -6.5

The Volunteers were getting a ton of hype coming into the season, and they clearly haven’t handled it very well mentally. They needed overtime to beat Appalachian State in their opener, and they only beat Ohio 28-19 last week as 27.5-point favorites.

However, when the Volunteers were on a huge stage at Bristol Motor Speedway against Virginia Tech, they lived up to their potential in a 45-24 victory. That’s the same VA Tech team that beat Boston College 49-0 last week.

I can guarantee you that Tennessee will put its best foot forward this week as this is the game that it has been looking forward to all offseason. I actually went against Tennessee last week and won on Ohio, stating that it would be looking ahead to Florida, and that was exactly what happened.

Now the Volunteers will be foaming at the mouth and licking their chops at another shot at the Gators this week. They have lost 11 straight meetings int his series, but they shouldn’t have lost last year. They blew a 27-14 lead in the final four minutes and lost 28-27.  They also lost 10-9 in 2014 at home.

This is the first time in a while that Tennessee clearly has a talent edge over Florida, and I expect that talent to shine inside a rowdy Neyland Stadium this time around. Getting this superior Tennessee team at under a touchdown on the spread is a gift from oddsmakers.

Not to mention, Florida finally thought it found its starting QB for the next few years Luke Del Rio, but he was injured last game and will miss a couple weeks with a knee injury. That’s a huge loss because Del Rio was playing well, completing 61.4 percent of his passes for 762 yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions.

Now they’ll likely go with Austin Appleby, a former Purdue transfer, and I don’t expect him to handle this tough road environment very well. Appleby only completed 55% of his passes with a 19-to-19 TD/INT ratio at Purdue. Plus, he could be without leading receiver Antonio Callaway (13, 201, TD), who missed last week with a quad injury and is doubtful to return this week. Callaway scored the game-winning TD against the Vols last year.

It’s not like Florida has been tested, either. I would argue that its three opponents thus far are all worse than any of the three opponents Tennessee has faced. Florida has played three home games against UMass, Kentucky and North Texas. It only beat UMass 24-7 in the opener in what was a 10-7 game going into the 4th. It also failed to cover against North Texas last week.

Tennessee is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record. The Vols are 5-1 ATS in their last six conference games. Tennessee is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS loss.  Bet Tennessee Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kent State +44

It's well documented that Alabama struggles to cover against Group of 5 teams when stepping out of conference.  The Crimson Tide are always such huge favorites, but they aren't a team that likes to run up the scoreboard, making it difficult to cover these big numbers.

Alabama went 0-2 ATS against Group of 5 teams last year, winning by 27 over Middle Tennessee as 35-point favorites and by 34 over ULM as 38-point favorites.  They went 0-1 ATS against them in 2014, winning by 40 over Southern Miss as 45-point favorites.  They went 0-2 against them in 2013, winning by 42 over Georgia State as 54-point favorites and by 25 over Colorado State as 39-point favorites.  They went 0-2 against them in 2012, winning by 35 over WKU as 38-point favorites and by 33 over FAU as 40-point favorites.

If you count the non-cover against WKU this season in a 28-point win as 28.5-point favorites, depending when you bet it, then Alabama is now 0-8 ATS against Group of 5 teams over the past five seasons.  I look for that trend to continue this week as Alabama fails to cover as a 44-point favorite against Kent State.

Alabama is in a tough mental spot here.  It is coming off the huge 48-43 win against Ole Miss last week, getting revenge on the Rebels after losing the previous two meetings.  I look for the Crimson Tide to come out flat this week.  Plus, Kent State is head coach Nick Saban's alma mater, so he won't be looking to embarrass the Golden Flashes.

Kent State is a team that should be improved this season with 18 returning starters.  It is off to just a 1-2 start this season, but I came away from the 13-33 road loss to Penn State knowing that this team is improved.  Kent State was only outgained by 75 yards on the road by the Nittany Lions in a game that was closer than the final score showed.

Quarterback Mylik Mitchell has actually played pretty well thus far for the Golden Flashes.  He is completing 59.7 percent of his passes with five touchdowns and one interception.  He has also rushed for 113 yards as a solid dual-threat guy.

The Golden Flashes are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Crimson Tide are 0-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  Alabama is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Bet Kent State Saturday.

20* USC/Utah Pac-12 No-Brainer on Utah -2.5

Rice-Eccles Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the country. The Utes almost always seem to have some magic at home, and this is a very small number for them to have to cover Friday night against a USC team that is in shambles right now.

The Utes have opened 3-0 and have been pretty dominant in the process. They are outscoring the opposition by an average of 14.0 points per game and outgaining them by 154 yards per game.

The key for the Utes has been the defense, which has been a staple since Kyle Whittingham took over. The Utes are only allowing 12.0 points and 263.7 yards per game this season. They have played both BYU and San Jose State, which are two capable offenses, too.

Utah has gotten some nice quarterback play from first-year starter Troy Williams. He is completing 62.8 percent of his passes for 723 yards with four touchdowns and four interceptions while averaging 8.4 per attempt. The rushing attack is solid once again, averaging 169 yards per game thus far.

USC just isn’t responding to Clay Helton for whatever reason. The Trojans have now lost four of their last five games overall dating back to last season. They haven’t even been competitive in their two losses this season.

The Trojans were pummeled 52-6 by Alabama in the opener, getting held to just 194 total yards in the loss. Last week they were overmatched in a 10-27 road loss to Stanford as well, letting Christian McCaffrey do whatever he wanted to them.

The USC front seven defensively is the biggest issue. They only brought one starter back among the front seven this season. And the Trojans gave up 242 rushing yards to Alabama and 295 to Stanford. Now they are dealing with some injuries up front as DT Noah Jefferson, DT Khaliel Rodgers and LB Quinton Powell are all questionable, while DE Osa Masina has left the team.

The Trojans are also pushing the panic button offensively and moving on from junior QB Max Browne already. They are expected to start freshman Sam Darnold in his place this week, and I can guarantee you that Salt Lake City is not the place you want to make your first start as a freshman.

The difference in this game is going to be Utah's defensive line dominating USC's offensive line.  The Utes have one of the best defensive lines in the country, and that was on display last week as they recorded a whopping 10 sacks against San Jose State.  Eight different players accounted for sacks in that game.  Darnold is going to be under duress all game.

The home team has won three straight meetings. Utah is 35-13 ATS in its last 48 vs. poor rushing teams who average 120 or fewer yards per game. Whittingham is 11-2 ATS in home games vs. poor rushing teams who average 120 or fewer yards per game as the coach of Utah. The Trojans are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games.  Bet Utah Friday.

20* Texans/Patriots AFC ANNIHILATOR on Houston +1

The Patriots are now down to their third-string quarterback in Jacoby Brissett. That’s because Jimmy Garoppolo got hurt in the third quarter and is doubtful to play this week. The Dolphins made their comeback last week after being down 31-3 once Garoppolo went out, eventually losing 31-24.

The difference between Tom Brady and Garoppolo is only a few points, but the difference between Garoppolo and Brissett is worth more. This is such a tough situation for a rookie quarterback on a short week that I can’t possibly foresee Brissett having much success. The Patriots are the type of team that can get him ready, but I’d rather bet against it.

The Patriots were extremely conservative with their play-calling against the Dolphins with Brissett.  In fact, his average pass attempt sailed only 3 yards past the line of scrimmage.  That conservative game plan isn't going to work this week.

Not only is it tough that it’s a short week for Brissett, it makes it even harder with the fact that he’s up against one of the best defenses in the NFL in the Texans. Houston has only allowed 13.0 points and 274.5 yards per game in back-to-back victories over the Bears and Chiefs. The Texans held the Chiefs to four field goals and didn’t allow them to get into the end zone last week.

Brock Osweiler is doing a fine job of running the offense as the Texans are putting up 21.0 points and 347.5 yards per game this season. Osweiler is completing 60.3 percent of his passes for 499 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions thus far. Lamar Miller has been a workhorse, rushing for 189 yards on 53 carries. Will Fuller is proving to be a steal, catching nine balls for 211 yards and a score.

Osweiler and the offense should be primed for a big game against a Patriots defense that is giving up 401.5 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play thus far. The Patriots have injuries on defense to LB Dont’a Hightowr and LB Rob Ninkovich. Offensively, the Patriots are without OT Sebastian Vulmer, and they could be without G Jonathan Cooper and TE Rob Gronkowski, who has missed the first two games already with a hamstring injury.

Houston is 12-3 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons (were favored before today). I believe the right team is favored here due to the injury situation for the Patriots. I know it’s tough to win in New England, but Miami nearly pulled it off last week, and the Texans should be able to now that the Patriots are down to their third-string quarterback.  Bet the Texans Thursday.

15* Clemson/Georgia Tech ESPN No-Brainer on Clemson -9.5

I believe this line would be higher had the Tigers not struggled in their first two games of the season with narrow victories over Auburn (19-13) and Troy (30-24). They certainly could have been suffering a hangover from their loss in the National Championship, but they got it out of their system with a 59-0 win over South Carolina State last week.

Now that the Tigers are into conference season, expect them to put their best foot forward this week against Georgia Tech. And I believe that will be enough to win by double-digits, which is all it’s going to take to cover this 9.5-point spread Thursday.

While Clemson is undervalued after its shaky start, Georgia Tech is overvalued after its 3-0 start. But it’s not like the Yellow Jackets have beaten anyone of any significance. Their three wins have come against Vanderbilt, Boston College and Mercer. Vanderbilt is 1-2 this season, Mercer is an FCS foe, and Boston College just lost to Virginia Tech 49-0 last week.  And Georgia Tech was outgained by 82 yards by Boston College in a 17-14 win.

Clemson is every bit as good as it was last season, and if it plays like it did against Georgia Tech last year, it will run away with this game as well. The Tigers rolled the Yellow Jackets 43-24 at home in a game that was an even bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. They outgained them 537-230 for the game, or by 307 total yards. They held Georgia Tech’s triple-option attack to just 71 rushing yards on 42 carries, or an average of 1.7 per carry.

This Clemson defense has been dominant again this season, giving up just 12.3 points, 250.0 yards per game and 3.7 yards per play.  The Tigers are holding opponents to 12.4 points and 126 yards per game less than their season averages.  They are also giving up only 92 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry, which is 106 yards per game and 2.0 per carry less than their opponents' season averages.

Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CLEMSON) – off three or more consecutive unders, with a great scoring defense allowing 14 or less points/game are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS since 1992.

Clemson is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games off a win by 35 points or more. The Tigers are 27-11 ATS in their last 38 road games after scoring 37 points or more last game. Dabo Swinney is 7-0 ATS in road games vs. good teams who outscore opponents by 17 or more points per game as the coach of Clemson. The Yellow Jackets are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Georgia Tech is 1-7 ATS in its last eight vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Clemson Thursday.

20* Eagles/Bears ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Chicago -3

The Bears are in prime bounce-back position here Monday night after losing on the road to the Texans in Week 1. They played the Texans tough for a half, but let a 14-10 lead slip away as they were blanked after intermission in their 23-14 loss.

Now the Bears head to Soldier Field for their first home game of the season. They’ll be highly motivated to avoid dropping to 0-2 on the season. Teams that start 0-2 rarely make the playoffs, and the Bears are looking at this as a must-win.

Meanwhile, the Eagles are overvalued and riding high right now after their 29-10 win over the Browns last week. They took care of business like they were supposed to against the worst team in the NFL.

Carson Wentz was solid against an awful Browns’ defense, but now the rookie will face his first NFL road game, and I don’t expect it to go nearly as well. John Fox has had a great defense everywhere he has been, and this stop unit in Chicago is better than it gets credit for.

The offense wasn’t atrocious last year for the Bears as they averaged 20.9 points and 344.6 yards per game. It should prove to be even better in 2016 now that Jay Cutler has a true No. 2 receiver in Kevin White, the first-round pick from 2015 that had to sit out all of last year. He pairs with Alshon Jeffery as one of the better WR duos in the NFL. Cutler is coming off one of the best seasons of his career and was solid in the opener.

John Fox is 30-14 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards per game in all games he has coached. After losing the time of possession battle 23 to 37 against the Texans, look for Fox to emphasize getting the running game going. That was the biggest difference in the game despite the fact that the Bears held the Texans to 135 yards on 35 carries, which is just 3.7 per carry. The Bears carried 20 times for 73 yards, which is also 3.7 per carry.

After going just 1-7 at home last season, the emphasis of the Bears this offseason has been to protect their home field, and they certainly want to make a statement in their first home game. The Eagles are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games in Week 2. The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five Monday games. The Bears are 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Bears Monday.

25* NFC West GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Rams +7

The Los Angeles Rams represent my favorite play of the early season, and I don't believe there will be a better bet in the NFC West the rest of the season than taking the Rams as touchdown home underdogs to the Seattle Seahawks.

The Rams couldn't have looked worse than they did in their 28-0 loss to the 49ers Monday night.  However, that performance has them way undervalued right now as the betting public is looking to fade them.  They public always loves the Seahawks anyways, so this is the perfect storm where we are getting max value.  I fully expect the Rams to win outright, but can't pass up the 7 points.

I am willing to throw away the game tape from the 49ers' game as that is clearly not the team that Rams are going to be the rest of the season.  They will be highly motivated here to come back in their first home game at the Coliseum and make up for that embarrassment, and their fans will be in full force.

There's no way the Seahawks should be getting this much respect after barely beating the Dolphins 12-10 as 10.5-point home favorites last week.  They actually needed a TD with 31 seconds left to escape with victory.  Russell Wilson was harassed the entire game and wound up with an ankle injury, which is sure to slow him down.  Now the Seahawks' offensive line will be up against arguably the best defensive line in the NFL in the Rams.

The Rams have played the Seahawks extremely tough in recent years.  In fact, they swept the season series last year, winning 34-31 (OT) as 3.5-point home dogs, and 23-17 as 11.5-point road dogs.

They have been extremely competitive at home against the Seahawks, going 4-0 ATS in the last four home meetings with three outright upsets. Their only loss came by 5 points.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.

Pete Carroll is 2-9 ATS in road games in the first month of the season as the coach of Seattle.  Jeff Fisher is 13-3 ATS after a loss by 14 points or more as the coach of the Rams.  Look for him to get his team to respond in a big way this week and pull the outright upset, if not cover the 7 points.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

15* Dolphins/Patriots AFC East No-Brainer on Miami +6.5

The New England Patriots were playing with a chip on their shoulder against the Arizona Cardinals last week.  They wanted to prove that they could win without Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski, and that's exactly what they did.  But now I don't see them playing with as big of an edge here against Miami as this is the perfect spot to fade them in a letdown situation.

There's no way the Patriots would be 6.5-point favorites over the Dolphins this week had they lost to the Cardinals last week.  So, they are getting too much respect from the betting public and the oddsmakers, and it's time to fade them now.

The Patriots got to use an element of surprise playing without Brady and Gronk as the Cardinals didn't know what to expect.  But now the Dolphins will dissect the film and figure out how to stop them, because the Patriots are going to be without Brady and Gronk again this week.  They are also expected to be without LB Dont'a Hightower, OT Nate Dolder and G Jonathan Cooper.  Not to mention, OT Sebastian Vollmer and DE Rob Ninkovich are already out.

I was impressed with Miami in its opener against the Seahawks.  It lost that game 10-12 in a hostile environment on the road as 10.5-point dogs.  The Dolphins arguably should have won as they allowed a touchdown with 31 seconds left.  If they can compete in Seattle, then can certainly compete in New England against a Patriots team that is missing a ton of key players.

Miami's defense is vastly improved this season as it has one of the best defensive lines in the league.  The Dolphins were pressuring Russell Wilson all game long thanks to their front four consistently getting pressure.  That front four should be a difference-maker again this week against a depleted New England offensive line.

The Dolphins have some good news on the injury front as RB Arian Foster and DE Mario Williams are both expected to play.  Ryan Tannehill didn't have his best game against the Seahawks, but he also avoided the big mistakes.  He should be much more effective against the depleted Patriots' defense this week.

Miami has actually won three of its last five meetings with New England.  The Patriots were playing for the No. 1 seed in the AFC in Week 17 last year, and they lost 10-20 in Miami as 10-point favorites.  The Dolphins had a big day offensively, racking up 438 yards and limiting the Patriots to 196, outgaining them by 242 yards for the game.  Tannehill has his best game in the series, going 25-of-38 for 350 yards and two touchdowns without an interception.

Plays on underdogs or pick (MIAMI) - bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games, in conference games are 65-30 (68.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Dolphins are 31-15 ATS in their last 46 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Miami didn't get any respect last week against Seattle, and it isn't getting the respect it deserves this week against New England.  Roll with the Dolphins Sunday.

20* NFL Line Mistake GAME OF THE WEEK on Tennessee Titans +6

Many would look at the 16-25 loss the Titans suffered against the Vikings last week as a near-blowout.  However, a closer look into the box score shows that the Titans should have won that game.  They led 10-0 at halftime, but gave up two defensive touchdowns after intermission and snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.

The Titans held the Vikings to just 301 total yards and managed 316 yards of offense, outgaining them by 15 yards for the game.  The defense didn't allow a single offensive touchdown as the Vikings had to settle for four field goals.  They also limited the Vikings to only 65 rushing yards on 28 carries, which is just over 2.0 yards per carry.  Adrian Peterson only had 31 yards on 19 carries. 

Marcus Mariota looked great, throwing for 271 yards and two touchdowns with an interception.  He should have a field day against a Lions' defense that is absolutely terrible.  The Lions gave up 460 total yards and 35 points to the Colts last week.  They were only able to win that game because the Colts' defense is terrible and gave up 39.

Because the Lions won on the road at Indianapolis, they are being way overvalued this week as 6-point favorites.  Because the Titans lost at home to the Vikings, they are being undervalued.  It's a great situation here as we are simply catching more points with the Titans than we should be.  They will bring it as they don't want to start 0-2.

Plays against home favorites who allowed 24 or more points/game last year, after playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 28-3 ATS L31 (90.3%).  The Lions are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.  The Titans are 4-0 SU in the last four meetings.  Look for this game to be close throughout and for Tennessee to easily stay within 6 points and likely pull off the upset.  Take the Titans Sunday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on North Texas +36

By no means do I think North Texas is going to upset Florida.  But I certainly believe the Mean Green will be good enough to stay within 36 points of the Gators this week.  And it has more to do with Florida than North Texas.

Florida is coming off a 45-7 win over Kentucky as 14-point favorites, covering the spread by 24 points.  That effort has the Gators overvalued, and has the betting public quickly forgetting about the fact that Florida only beat UMass 24-7 at home the previous week as 35-point favorites, failing to cover by 18 points.  It's also worth mentioning that Florida only led UMass 10-7 at the end of the 3rd quarter in that game.

Florida came back with a big effort last week in its SEC opener, which was to be expected.  But now the Gators are back in a flat spot here against North Texas, stepping out of conference play before facing rival Tennessee on the road next week.  There's no question the Gators will be looking ahead to that game, especially with all the back-and-forth clashing the teams did through the media in the offseason.

That blowout win over Kentucky was an aberration, too.  Florida won 10 games last year but only outscored opponents by 4.9 points per game.  It beat East Carolina by 7 at home as 20-point favorites, Vanderbilt by 2 at home as 20-point favorites, and Florida Atlantic by 6 (OT) as 29-point favorites at home.

You just can't trust this team when laying big points because their offense isn't explosive enough to cover these big numbers.  They only averaged 23.2 points and 334 yards per game last year.  It's also worth nothing that Florida's leading receiver Antonio Callaway (13 receptions, 201 yards, 2 TD) is doubtful Saturday with a quad injury, only further hampering their already lackluster offense.  Callaway was their leading receiver last year (35, 674, 4 TD) too.

North Texas was awful last year at 1-11, but it is going to be improved this season with 14 starters and 61 lettermen back and only 17 lettermen lost.  North Texas played SMU tough in the opener in a 21-34 loss.  That was the same SMU team that was tied with Baylor 6-6 at halftime last week on the road.

The Mean Green got in the win column last week with a convincing 41-20 win over Bethune-Cookman as 11-point favorites.  They outgained the Wildcats 450-231 for the game, or by 219 total yards.  They rushed for 329 yards and 6.5 per carry in the win.  It was certainly a confidence booster for this team as any win is big right now.

Plays on underdogs of 31.5 or more points (NORTH TEXAS) - after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS since 1992.  Plays against home favorites (FLORIDA) - after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games against opponent after a win by 21 or more points are 38-13 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Florida is 0-6 ATS in home games after outrushing its last opponent by 125 or more yards over the last three seasons.  The Mean Green are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. SEC opponents.  The Gators are 0-5 ATS in their last five non-conference games.  Florida is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games.  These four trends combine for a 20-1 system backing the Mean Green.  Bet North Texas Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Texas State +31

The Arkansas Razorbacks are in an awful spot here.  They are coming off a 41-38 (OT) win at TCU last week to pull off the upset as 10-point underdogs.  Now they are overvalued due to that win, and this is a sandwich game in which they will probably not show up for considering they have their SEC opener against Texas A&M on deck next week.

While the end result was a good road win over TCU last week, I would argue that the Razorbacks were outplayed and shouldn't have won.  That's pretty obvious when you consider TCU outgained Arkansas 572-403 for the game, or by 169 total yards.

That win over TCU also helped the betting public forget about Arkansas' stinker in the opener, but I have not.  Arkansas only beat Louisiana Tech 21-20 at home as 21-point favorites in the opener.  The Razorbacks even needed a TD with 6:37 left in the fourth quarter to pull out that win.

The Razorbacks only gained 297 total yards of offense against Louisiana Tech.  They gained 403 against TCU, but that was with overtime included, and TCU had given up 41 points to South Dakota State the previous week.  I simply don't believe this Arkansas offense is explosive enough to warrant being a 31-point favorite this week, especially in this tough sandwich/letdown spot.

Texas State really impressed me with its 56-54 (OT) win at Ohio in the opener as 17-point underdogs.  That's the same Ohio team that went on the road and beat Kansas 37-21 last week in a game that wasn't even as close as the final score would indicate.  The Bobcats outgained the Jayhawks 359 to 21 total yards in the first half of that game.

Unlike Arkansas, Texas State is in a great spot here as it actually didn't play last week.  So it has had a full two weeks to prepare for Arkansas.  Also, the reason Texas State is such a desirable underdog to me this week is because they have one of the best quarterbacks in the Sun Belt in senior Tyler Jones.

Jones has made 21 starts in his career while completing 65% of his passes for 3,800 yards and 30 touchdowns against 12 interceptions coming into the season.  Jones was brilliant against a very good Ohio defense in the opener, completing 40 of 55 passes for 418 yards and four touchdowns against two interceptions.  He also added another rushing score on the ground.  He can lead this Texas State offense on a few touchdown drives, which will be enough to cover the 31-point spread.

Texas State is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games when the total is between 56.5 and 63 points.  The Bobcats are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.  The Razorbacks are 1-4 ATS in their last five September games.  Remember, Arkansas lost at home 16-12 to Toledo last year, and nearly lost to LA Tech this year.  Take Texas State Saturday.

15* Georgia/Missouri SEC No-Brainer on Missouri +6.5

The Missouri Tigers had one of the best defenses in the country last year in allowing just 16.2 points and 302 yards per game.  Former defensive coordinator Barry Odom is now the head coach, and this defense will prove to be one of the best in the SEC once again this season.

But the reason Missouri should be improved this year is because of the offense.  Sophomore QB Drew Lock got his feet wet as a freshman last year, and now its his offense in 2016.  So far, I would have to say that Lock is making the most of it.

Yes, Missouri lost 11-26 at West Virginia in the opener, but it left a lot of points on the field as it gained 462 total yards, which should have led to more points.  The Tigers then racked up 647 total yards in a 61-21 beat down of Eastern Michigan at home last week to really flash their potential.

Lock has been impressive, throwing for 730 yards and six touchdowns without an interception.  Four different receivers already have at least 100 receiving yards through two games, so he is not short on weapons.  This is clearly one of the most improved offenses in the country this season.

Georgia had to erase a double-digit deficit to beat North Carolina in the opener in what was essentially a home game as it was played in Atlanta.  Then, the Bulldogs nearly suffered the biggest upset of the season last week as they only beat FCS foe Nicholls State 26-24 despite being 52.5-point favorites, failing to cover the spread by 50.5 points!

That effort against Nicholls State shows that Georgia has plenty of problems and should not be favored by nearly a TD on the road against Missouri this week.  This will be a tough atmosphere as it's a night game at Memorial Stadium, and the Tigers always seem to rise to the occasion in these spots.

While the Tigers know they have their QB of the future in Lock, the Bulldogs still don't know who their quarterback is going to be.  Freshman Jacob Eason has struggled thus far, and senior Greyson Lambert hasn't been much better.  They are going to have to make some plays in the passing game against Missouri to come away with a road win, and I just don't know if they can do it.

The reason the Bulldogs are going to have to make some plays in the passing game is because Missouri is great at stopping the run, and the Bulldogs rely heavily on Nick Chubb, making this a good matchup for the Tigers.  They gave up 134 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry in 2014, and 133 per game and 3.3 per carry in 2015.  They have allowed 4.1 per carry thus far in 2016.

Missouri went into Athens last year and played Georgia very tough, only losing 6-9 as 15.5-point underdogs.  The Tigers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.  The Tigers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (GEORGIA) - after one or more consecutive straight up wins, first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games are 33-10 (76.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (GEORGIA) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with three or more straight wins are 50-18 (73.5) ATS since 1992.  Roll with Missouri Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Mississippi State +13.5

After seeing LSU in each of its first two games, its obvious that the Tigers came into the 2016 season as one of the most overrated teams in the country. I think a big part of that is because they have Leonard Fournette, but he simply cannot do it all as the offense is weak everywhere else.

LSU was outgained by 82 yards against Wisconsin in its 14-16 upset loss as 12.5-point favorites in the opener. Its offense was held to just 257 total yards. Brandon Harris continues to be a weak link as he went 12-of-21 passing for 131 yards and one touchdown with two interceptions in the loss.

Even more concerning may have been the 34-13 home win over Jacksonville State last week as 28-point favorites. This game was a heck of a lot closer than the final score would indicate. The Tigers only outgained the Gamecocks by three yards 371-368. That’s really concerning that the defense gave up 368 yards to an FCS opponent.

And now the Tigers have a QB controversy after starting Harris but going to Danny Etling in the second quarter. He went 6-of-14 for 100 yards with one touchdown and one interception. But Etling didn’t complete a pass in the second half and threw his pick on six attempts after intermission. It’s amazing that the Tigers still cannot find a quarterback, though they are expected to go with Etling to start Saturday.

There’s no question that Mississippi State’s 20-21 loss to South Alabama as 27.5-point favorites in the opener was one of the biggest upsets of the season. However, from seeing what the Bulldogs did to South Carolina last week, it’s clear that the loss was more of a fluke than anything.  And the South Alabama loss has them undervalued.

Indeed, Mississippi State beat South Carolina 27-14 at home as 7.5-point favorites. This game was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Bulldogs were up 24-0 at halftime before calling off the dogs and allowing a couple scores in garbage time. They outgained the Gamecocks 485-243 for the game, or by 242 total yards.

Unlike LSU, it's amazing the finds that head coach Dan Mullen has been able to make at quarterback. The loss of Dak Prescott is huge, but sophomore Nick Fitzgerald clearly has many of the same qualities. Fitzgerald went 19-of-29 passing for 178 yards with two touchdowns and one interception against South Carolina. But he did most of his damage on the ground, rushing for 195 yards on 17 carries. He only played seven snaps against South Alabama before getting the starting nod last week.  I believe the Bulldogs would have never lost that game had Fitzgerald played the whole game.

Both meetings between these two teams over the past two seasons have gone right down to the wire. Mississippi State won 34-29 at LSU as 7-point underdogs in 2014, and covered again as 3-point dogs last year in a 19-21 home loss. The Bulldogs outgained the Tigers 570-430 in 2014 and 378-337 in 2015.

Mississippi State is a perfect 8-0 ATS after paying a game at home over the last two seasons. The Bulldogs are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 conference games. The Tigers are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  Roll with Mississippi State Saturday.

15* Colorado/Michigan CFB Saturday No-Brainer on Colorado +19

The Colorado Buffaloes might be the most underrated team in the entire country this season.  They entered 2016 as the most experienced team in the Pac-12 with 18 starters and 63 lettermen back in the fourth year under head coach Mike MacIntyre.

It's bowl or bust this season for MacIntyre, and his team has really responded in the first two weeks.  Colorado beat Colorado State 44-7 on a neutral field in the opener, outgaining the Rams 578-225 for the game, or by 353 total yards.  It then beat Idaho State 56-7 at home after taking a 45-0 lead into halftime and calling off the dogs, outgaining the Bengals 597-96 for the game, or by 501 total yards.

Michigan has taken care of a couple cupcakes while opening 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS this season, which has it overvalued right now.  It beat Hawaii 63-3 before topping UCF 51-14 at home.  But while the Buffaloes have outgained their first two opponents by an average of 427 yards per game, Michigan has only outgained its two foes by 198 yards per game.  The Wolverines weren't as dominant as those two scores indicate.

While Colorado certainly won't be overlooking Michigan, I could see the Wolverines overlooking the Buffaloes and looking ahead to their Big Ten opener against Penn State next week.  I don't think there's as big of a difference between these teams as the line would indicate, and I certainly don't foresee Michigan winning by three touchdowns or more, which is what it would take for the Wolverines to cover the spread.

Colorado did go just 2-5 on the road last season, but its losses only came by 8.5 points per game away from Boulder.  The Buffaloes have lost a whopping eight Pac-12 games the past two seasons by a touchdown or less, so they have simply been a bad-luck team.  With their experience and talent level this season, they are ready to turn the corner.

Michigan is 18-33 ATS in its last 51 games following two or more consecutive ATS wins.  The Buffaloes are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Wolverines are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Michigan is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 vs. Pac-12 opponents.  Take Colorado Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on UNLV +13

The Central Michigan Chippewas are in a massive letdown spot here Saturday.  They are coming off one of their biggest wins in school history with a 30-27 road win at Oklahoma State last week.  Certainly, these players are going to be feeling good about themselves now and not give UNLV the attention it deserves.

UNLV has one of its best teams in recent memory in 2016.  It has 14 starters back this year after having just 10 starters back last season.  And while the Rebels went 3-9 last year, they were within a touchdown in the 4th quarter in nine of their 12 games, so they were better than their record would indicate.

After putting up 28.6 points and 405 yards per game last season offensively, this is now going to be one of the best offenses that UNLV has had in a long time.  They beat Jackson State 63-13 in the opener and racked up 503 total yards.

But I was more impressed with UNLV's 21-42 loss at UCLA last week as 27.5-point underdogs.  That was actually a 28-21 game entering the 4th quarter before the Bruins scored the final 14 points to put it away.  The fact that they can hang with UCLA for three-plus quarters on the road shows their potential.

Central Michigan is 0-6 ATS in home games off one or more consecutive straight up wins over the last three seasons.  It is coming back to lose by an average of 7.2 points per game in this spot.  The Rebels are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  UNLV is 4-0 ATS in its last four non-conference games.  Bet UNLV Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Vanderbilt +6.5

The Vanderbilt Commodores should not be catching nearly a touchdown against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets this week.  This game is much more evenly-matched than this line would indicate, and I actually expect the Commodores to win outright because they are the better team.

Derek Mason is in his third season at Vanderbilt and has his best team yet with 15 starters and 57 lettermen back.  The Commodores laid an egg in their opener by squandering a 10-0 lead to South Carolina and losing 13-10, but I believe that loss has them undervalued.

I jumped on Vanderbilt last week as only 2.5-point favorites over Middle Tennessee.  The Commodores did not disappoint, rolling to a 47-24 home victory over an underrated MTSU outfit.  They finally got their offense going, and their defense remains one of the best in the country.

Indeed, the Commodores gave up just 21.0 points per game last year and brought back seven starters from that team.  They have one of the best sets of linebackers in the entire SEC led by Zach Cunningham, who had 103 tackles, 4.5 sacks and 12 tackles for loss last season.

Having great linebackers is key against Georgia Tech and its triple-option offense.  Mason and Commodores relish a matchup like this of the hard-hitting variety.  They will be up to the task to slow down the triple-option this week.

Georgia Tech went 3-9 last season, and I don't believe it is much better at all in 2016.  It only beat Boston College 17-14 in the opener and only gained 238 yards offensively in that contest.  I wasn't all that impressed with the 35-10 win over Mercer, either.  The Yellow Jackets only outgained the Bears by 124 total yards in that game, giving up 320 yards defensively.

While Vanderbilt cannot afford to look ahead after that loss to South Carolina as it needs every win it can get to make a bowl game, I wouldn't be surprised at all if Georgia Tech is looking ahead to its showdown at home against No. 5 Clemson this coming Thursday.  Look ahead or not, I still believe the Commodores have the more talented team overall, and certainly the better defense.

Plays against home favorites (GEORGIA TECH) - after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games against opponent after a win by 21 or more points are 38-13 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.

The Commodores are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.  Vanderbilt is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Commodores are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 road games overall.  The Yellow Jackets are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Roll with Vanderbilt Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Rutgers -6

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are undervalued right now because of their 13-48 road loss to Washington in the opener.  But that game was closer than the final score would indicate.  The Scarlet Knights were only outgained 304-380 in that game, or by 76 total yards, and Washington is one of the best teams in the country.

I still believe Rutgers is going to be one of the more improved teams in the country as the season progresses.  They had 16 starters back for new head coach Chris Ash, who was the co-defensive coordinator under Urban Meyer the last two years.  Ash inherited a ton of talent.

Rutgers staked Howard to 14 points early last week, but then showed its potential by winning the rest of the game 52-0 for a 52-14 victory.  The Rutgers' defense limited Howard to five total yards in the second half and will build off of that performance this week.

New Mexico is overvalued because it finally made a bowl game last year.  But the Lobos clearly have some problems right now because they lost to an awful New Mexico State team 31-32 on the road as 11-point favorites last week.  They managed just 336 total yards in that loss.

Hurting New Mexico is the fact that it's without arguably its two best players right now.  RB Teriyon Gipson, who rushed for 848 yards and six touchdowns last year, is out with a concussion.  Senior middle linebacker Dakota Cox, who is the leader of the defense, is also out with a concussion.  Cox led the team in tackles (97) last year and had five sacks.  He was MWC Player of the Week with his performance against South Dakota in their opener.  Those two losses cannot be overstated.

The fact of the matter is that Rutgers is vastly more talented team in this matchup with New Mexico.  If the Scarlet Knights want to make a bowl game this year, they know they must take care of business this week against New Mexico.

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (RUTGERS) - after a win by 35 or more points against opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 52-18 (74.3%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Rutgers Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Ohio +27

The Tennessee Volunteers are in a prime letdown spot today.  They are coming off their huge win over Virginia Tech at Bristol Motor Speedway last week, and now they have rival Florida on deck next week to open SEC play.

The Volunteers won't be able to help but look forward to that game against Florida.  They have lost 11 straight to the Gators, and there has been a ton of back-and-forth clashing between the teams through the media.  The Vols won't give Ohio the attention it deserves this week.

Ohio is certainly no pushover.  It went 8-5 last season and is clearly one of the best teams in the MAC.  But the Bobcats come undervalued due to their 56-54 loss to Texas State in overtime in their opener.  They gained 630 total yards in that game and should have won.

But the Bobcats came back last week and played up to their potential, outgaining Kansas 359 to 21 yards in first half en route to a 37-21 road victory.  Their offense is now averaging 563 yards per game through two games, and they certainly have the firepower to keep up with Tennessee in this one.  QB Greg Windham has already thrown for 560 yards and five touchdowns this season, and they had two 100-yard rushers last week against Kansas.

Tennessee comes in overvalued because of its 45-24 win over Virginia Tech last week.  However, that game was much closer than the final score would indicate.  The Vols were actually outgained by the Hokies 330-400, or by 70 total yards.  But they took advantage of five fumbles lost by the Hokies to break the game open.

Remember, Tennessee needed overtime to beat Appalachian State at home in the opener 20-13.  Appalachian State missed an extra point short field goal in regulation.  Tennessee also fumbled the ball at the goal line in OT and was lucky to recover it in the end zone to get the win.

Plays on road underdogs of 21.5 or more points (OHIO U) - after outgaining opponent by 225 or more total yards in their previous game are 36-14 (72%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

Ohio is 6-0 ATS after gaining 475 or more total yards in its previous game over the last three seasons.  Frank Solich is 13-5 ATS off an upset win as an underdog as the coach of the Bobcats.  The Bobcats are 8-1 ATS in their last nine non-conference games.  The Volunteers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.  Take Ohio Saturday.

20* Baylor/Rice ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Rice +31.5

Rice hasn’t shown great on the road in its first two games with tough matchups against Western Kentucky and Army. After losing both contests and failing to cover the spread in each, I believe Rice is now undervalued and catching too many points here as 31.5-point dogs to Baylor.

But Western Kentucky was one of the best non-Power 5 teams in the country last year, and it played Alabama reasonably tough last week.  Also, Army is one of the most improved teams in the country.  That was evident when it went on the road and beat Temple 28-13 as 14-point dogs in Week 1.

Rice will be looking forward to this game because it will be its first home and and it will be on the National TV stage with ESPN providing the television coverage. The Owls will show up, and when they do, they should be good enough to stay within 31.5 points of Baylor.  I still believe the Owls are improved this season with 16 starters back compared to only 9 last year.

The Bears clearly aren’t the same dominant team they have been the past few years. They failed to cover as 50-point favorites in a 55-7 win over Northwestern State, and also didn’t cover as 34.5-point favorites in a 40-13 home win over SMU last week.

The game against SMU was much closer than the final score would indicate. The Bears only outgained the Mustangs by 131 total yards in the game, 536-405. This was actually a 6-6 game at halftime before the Bears blew it open in the second half.

Being tied at halftime against SMU at home is a sign that the Bears are vulnerable.  That's especially the case when SMU was missing starting QB Matt Davis in that game.  Backup QB Ben Hicks really hurt SMU by throwing three interceptions, including one that was returned for a touchdown.

Yes, Baylor has gone 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in its last seven meetings with Rice. However, only once during this stretch have they beaten Rice by more than 25 points. This is a much better Rice team than the one the Bears faced last year as the Owls have seven more starters back.

This is a much worse Bears team as they brought back just 10 starters this season and lost head coach Art Briles.  They had 18 starters back last year, so they have eight less starters back this year.  The Bears also have only one returning starters along their offensive and defensive lines, so they aren't very strong up front.

I think this will be a tougher test for Baylor in its first road game than most are thinking.  This is a young team, and that first road game is always tough.  I also think the Bears could be looking ahead to their Big 12 opener against Oklahoma State next week.

Rice is 72-44 ATS in its last 116 home games, including 40-20 ATS in its last 60 games as a home underdog. The Owls are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games off two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse. The Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Bet Rice Friday.

15* Jets/Bills AFC East ANNIHILATOR on New York -1

The New York Jets are the vastly superior team than the Buffalo Bills this season. They have the better offense and the better defense. They are also going to want revenge after losing both meetings to the Bills last year, and five straight in the series overall.

The Jets are a playoff-caliber team. They have a solid offense behind Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker in the passing game. They added Matt Forte in the offseason, and he had a big game against the Bengals with 96 rushing yards and 59 receiving yards in his debut with the Jets last week.  The Jets lost that game 22-23 and don't want to fall to 0-2 after going 10-6 last year and barely missing the playoffs.

Buffalo’s offense clearly doesn’t look improved at all this year after a 7-13 loss at Baltimore. The Bills managed just 160 total yards and were outgained by 148 yards in the loss.

Making matters worse for the Bills is that star receiver Sammy Watkins is banged up. He continues to deal with discomfort in his surgically repaired foot and is questionable to play Thursday against the Jets. The Bills have one of the longest injury reports of any team right now with key contributors in DT Marcell Dareus, DE Dhaq Lawson, LB Reggie Ragland, LB Ik Enempkpali and LT Cordy Glenn out.

Plays against home teams (BUFFALO) – good passing team from last season – had a completion pct of 60% or better, after gaining 4.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS since 1983.

The Jets are 49-30 ATS in their last 79 division road games. New York is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games in Week 2. The Jets are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine vs. AFC East opponents. The Bills are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.  Take the Jets Thursday.

20* Houston/Cincinnati ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on Cincinnati +7.5

I believe the Houston Cougars are being way over-hyped right now, which has them overvalued as 7.5-point favorites on the road this week against one of the top contenders in the American Athletic in Cincinnati.

The Cougars went 13-1 last season and have opened 2-0 this year with a win over Oklahoma already. While there’s no question they are a very good team, I would argue that they should not be ranked as high as No. 6, and they certainly aren’t one of the best 10 teams in the country.

Star QB Greg Ward Jr. is banged up right now with a shoulder injury and had to sit out last week against Lamar. He is expected to play this week, but he will still be feeling the effects of that injury. Also, star RB Duke Catalon is nursing an ankle injury that forced him out last week, and he may play as well but won’t be 100%.

Cincinnati may have been the best 7-6 team in the country last year. It outgained its opponents by 129 yards per game while averaging 538 per game on offense. That offense is loaded again, and the defense should be much improved with eight starters back.

The defense has played very well the first two weeks in limiting Tennessee-Martin and Purdue to a combined 27 points while forcing eight turnovers. The offense really got going against Purdue with 512 total yards with 262 on the ground and 250 through the air. That’s an improved Purdue team from the Big Ten, so a 38-20 road win over the Boilermakers is nothing to laugh about, especially considering the Bearcats were only 3-point favorites.

Cincinnati wants revenge on Houston after losing 30-33 on the road as 9-point underdogs last year. It outgained Houston 589-427 for the game, or by 162 total yards, and should have won. The Bearcats are still 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Cougars.

Cincinnati has one of the best home-field advantages in college football. It is now 27-5 at home over the past five-plus seasons. Rarely will you see the Bearcats ever catching points at home because of this, especially not more than a touchdown like they are against the Cougars. The value is clearly with them in this game.

Houston is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games after allowing 6 points or less last game. Cincinnati is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games following a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better. The Bearcats are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Cincinnati is 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 conference games. The Cougars are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Cincinnati.

Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CINCINNATI) – excellent passing team from last season – had a completion pct of 62% or better are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (HOUSTON) – in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with three or more straight wins are 50-17 (74.6%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Cincinnati Thursday.

20* Steelers/Redskins ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Washington +2.5

The Washington Redskins are showing great value today as home underdogs to the Pittsburgh Steelers.  After winning the NFC East and making the playoffs last year, the Redskins remain underrated heading into 2016.

The Redskins really took care of business at home last season.  They went 6-3, which includes their loss to the Packers at home in the playoffs.  They outscored opponents by 4.5 points per game at home and outgained them by nearly 46 yards per game.

Pittsburgh didn't exactly light it up on the road last season.  It went 5-5 away from home while outscoring opponents by 0.5 points per game.  There is a lot of hype on the Steelers coming into 2016 as they are a popular Super Bowl pick.  That's why we'll fade them in Week 1 here.

I also like the fact that the Steelers are far from full strength.  They are without Le'Veon Bell for the first three games due to suspension.  WR Martavis Bryant is out for the season, and WR Markus Wheaton isn't expected to play due to a shoulder injury.  New TE Ladarius Green is on the PUP as well.  That leaves Ben Roethlisberger missing three important weapons on offense.

The weakness of the Steelers is their secondary, which gave up 63.4% completions and 264 yards per game last season.  That makes this a good matchup for the Redskins, who completed 69.1% of their passes for 257 yards per game last season.  Kirk Cousins is the real deal and has a plethora of weapons around him.

Mike Tomlin is 5-13 ATS in road games in the first month of the season as the coach of Pittsburgh.  The Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games in Week 1.  Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  Bet the Redskins Monday.