Packers vs Vikings prediction, odds and best bet for Sunday, September 13, 2026. One of the NFL’s best divisional rivalries opens the 2026 season when Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers visit the Minnesota Vikings and new starting quarterback Kyler Murray.
The betting market has already made a significant move. Green Bay originally opened around -2.5, but Minnesota is now approximately a 1.5-point home favorite.
The current Over/Under is approximately 46.5 points.
Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 PM ET Sunday from U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis with television coverage on CBS.
Our early Packers vs Vikings prediction sides with Minnesota at the short number because Green Bay enters Week 1 without two of its most important players: running back Josh Jacobs and defensive superstar Micah Parsons.
Rocketman Sports Prediction: Minnesota Vikings 24, Green Bay Packers 20
Best Bet: Minnesota Vikings -1.5 or better
Total Lean: Under 46.5
Packers vs Vikings Prediction and Current Odds
| Betting Market | Current Line |
|---|---|
| Point Spread | Minnesota Vikings -1.5 |
| Total | 46.5 |
| Moneyline | Minnesota approximately -118 to -120 |
| Kickoff | Sunday, September 13 – 4:25 PM ET |
| Location | U.S. Bank Stadium – Minneapolis, Minnesota |
| TV | CBS |
NFL lines can change throughout the week. Always compare the current market with the target number before placing a wager.
Packers vs Vikings Prediction: Why We Like Minnesota -1.5
Pick: Minnesota Vikings -1.5 or better
Projected Score: Minnesota 24, Green Bay 20
This is not a matchup where our power ratings uncover a massive difference between our projected spread and the sportsbook.
In fact, the numbers are remarkably close.
The Rocketman NFL Power Ratings currently have:
Green Bay Packers: +2.6
Minnesota Vikings: +2.0
Green Bay therefore rates approximately 0.6 points better on a neutral field.
After adding approximately two points for Minnesota’s home-field advantage, our raw fair line becomes:
Minnesota -1.4
The current sportsbook line is approximately Minnesota -1.5.
That means the market and our ratings are almost perfectly aligned.
So why are we taking Minnesota?
The difference comes from Green Bay’s Week 1 personnel situation.
Josh Jacobs is currently on the Commissioner’s Exempt List and cannot practice or play while on that list.
Micah Parsons is still recovering from reconstructive ACL surgery and is expected to miss the opening portion of the season.
Those are enormous losses on opposite sides of the football.
With Minnesota laying only 1.5 points at home, we believe those absences provide enough matchup value to move the Vikings from a pass to our preferred side.
Rocketman NFL Power Ratings: Packers vs Vikings
Here’s how our numbers price the matchup:
Green Bay RPR: +2.6
Minnesota RPR: +2.0
Neutral-Field Edge: Green Bay +0.6
Minnesota Home-Field Adjustment: approximately +2.0
Rocketman Fair Line: Minnesota -1.4
Current Market: Minnesota approximately -1.5
There is essentially no raw model edge at the current spread.
That is important.
Power ratings are designed to tell us what the matchup should be priced at before we start making situational adjustments.
The sportsbook has already landed almost exactly on our number.
Our Minnesota preference comes from the current availability of key players rather than a major mathematical discrepancy.
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The Packers vs Vikings Line Has Already Flipped
One of the most interesting aspects of this game is the early line movement.
Green Bay opened approximately -2.5.
Minnesota is now approximately -1.5.
That’s roughly a four-point adjustment through the important pick’em range.
Some of that move makes sense when you consider the Green Bay personnel news.
Josh Jacobs is unavailable.
Micah Parsons is unavailable.
Green Bay is also entering the season with uncertainty at several positions after significant roster turnover.
We do not automatically assume that a line move represents professional betting action.
But when a market moves this dramatically, bettors should pay attention to the reasons behind it.
In this case, the change in Green Bay’s Week 1 roster provides a logical explanation.
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Green Bay Without Josh Jacobs
Josh Jacobs was the foundation of Green Bay’s running game in 2025.
He rushed for 929 yards and 13 touchdowns on 234 carries.
Those numbers become even more important when evaluating this Week 1 matchup.
Jacobs is currently on the Commissioner’s Exempt List and cannot play while he remains there.
That pushes MarShawn Lloyd toward the top of Green Bay’s backfield rotation.
Lloyd is talented, but he enters 2026 with very limited regular-season NFL experience after injuries disrupted his first two seasons.
Chris Brooks and newly acquired Kaleb Johnson provide additional depth.
But none of them has Jacobs’ combination of workload experience, short-yardage value and proven touchdown production.
That puts more pressure on Jordan Love.
Green Bay may need to win this game through the passing game rather than controlling the pace with Jacobs.
Jordan Love Becomes Even More Important
Jordan Love completed 66.3% of his passes for 3,381 yards, 23 touchdowns and only six interceptions during the 2025 regular season.
His 101.2 passer rating reflects how efficiently he played when healthy.
With Jacobs unavailable, Love becomes the centerpiece of the Week 1 offensive game plan.
Christian Watson, Jayden Reed and Matthew Golden give Green Bay speed and versatility at receiver.
Tight end Tucker Kraft could also be a major factor.
Kraft was having an outstanding 2025 season before tearing his ACL.
He caught 32 passes for 489 yards and six touchdowns in only eight games.
His recovery has progressed well enough that he returned to full team work during training camp and has been preparing to play in the opener.
If Kraft is close to full strength, Green Bay’s passing game remains dangerous.
That is one reason we do not want to lay a large number with Minnesota.
Green Bay Without Micah Parsons
The absence of Micah Parsons may be even more significant than the loss of Jacobs.
Parsons recorded 12.5 sacks for Green Bay last season before suffering a torn ACL.
His rehab timeline has always pointed toward a return later in September rather than Week 1.
Without Parsons, Green Bay loses its most explosive pass rusher.
That matters against Kyler Murray.
Murray has always been dangerous when defenses fail to contain him inside the pocket.
Green Bay must generate pressure while also maintaining disciplined rush lanes.
That assignment becomes considerably harder without Parsons.
Kyler Murray Makes His Minnesota Vikings Debut
The biggest unknown in our Packers vs Vikings prediction is Minnesota’s new quarterback.
Kyler Murray will make his Vikings regular-season debut after winning the starting job during training camp.
Head coach Kevin O’Connell officially named Murray the starter over J.J. McCarthy in August.
Murray spent his first seven NFL seasons with Arizona before signing with Minnesota.
This creates an intriguing combination.
O’Connell now gets an experienced mobile quarterback with a strong arm and the ability to create offense outside structure.
Murray gets perhaps the best collection of receiving talent he has worked with in years.
The question is how quickly he can become comfortable with Minnesota’s offense.
He has had only one offseason and training camp to absorb O’Connell’s terminology, protections, route adjustments and timing.
Week 1 is different from a preseason drive.
That uncertainty is the primary reason Minnesota is not a stronger wager for us.
Justin Jefferson Gives Murray an Elite No. 1 Receiver
Whatever adjustment Murray experiences learning a new offense, throwing to Justin Jefferson should make the transition easier.
Jefferson caught 84 passes for 1,048 yards last season despite Minnesota’s instability at quarterback.
He now enters his seventh NFL season with 8,480 career receiving yards.
Minnesota also returns Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson and added Jauan Jennings to its receiving group.
The Vikings do not need Murray to immediately become an MVP candidate.
They need him to distribute the football efficiently, extend occasional plays with his legs and avoid the turnover problems that hurt Minnesota’s offense last season.
That is a more manageable assignment with Jefferson attracting coverage on nearly every passing down.
Minnesota Running Game Can Help Kyler Murray
The Vikings also have enough running-back depth to avoid placing the entire offense on Murray.
Jordan Mason rushed for 758 yards and six touchdowns last season while averaging 4.8 yards per carry.
Aaron Jones added 548 rushing yards.
Minnesota’s initial 2026 depth chart listed Jones and Mason together at the top of the backfield.
A strong running game would help Minnesota in several ways.
It keeps Murray out of obvious passing situations.
It slows Green Bay’s pass rush.
And it creates opportunities for O’Connell’s play-action concepts.
With Parsons missing from Green Bay’s defense, Minnesota should test that front early.
Key Matchup: Minnesota Offensive Line vs Green Bay Pass Rush
Minnesota allowed too much quarterback pressure during the 2025 season.
The Vikings surrendered 60 sacks.
That cannot continue if the offense expects to improve.
The good news is Minnesota enters Week 1 with an offensive line built around Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill at tackle, with Will Fries and Donovan Jackson on the interior.
The Packers still have quality defensive players even without Parsons.
But taking the best edge rusher off the field materially changes Green Bay’s ability to create pressure without blitzing.
If Minnesota protects Murray, the Vikings should be able to create opportunities for Jefferson and Addison downfield.
Key Matchup: Jordan Love vs Minnesota’s Defense
Green Bay can absolutely win this game if Love plays efficiently.
Minnesota’s defense produced only 32 touchdowns allowed in 2025 but also had games where opposing offenses exploited the secondary.
Dallas Turner and Andrew Van Ginkel give the Vikings legitimate pressure off the edge.
Byron Murphy Jr. anchors the secondary.
The challenge is defending Green Bay’s speed without allowing Love easy answers underneath.
Tucker Kraft could become particularly important.
If Minnesota focuses too much attention outside, Green Bay can attack linebackers and safeties through Kraft and the middle of the field.
Packers vs Vikings Injury and Availability Watch
Green Bay:
Josh Jacobs is currently unavailable while on the Commissioner’s Exempt List.
Micah Parsons is recovering from ACL surgery and is expected to miss Week 1.
Tucker Kraft has returned from his ACL rehabilitation and has progressed through team practice, but his workload should continue to be monitored.
Luke Musgrave opened the season on the PUP list.
Minnesota:
Kyler Murray is the starting quarterback.
J.J. McCarthy dealt with an ankle injury during the preseason and enters the season behind Murray.
Minnesota’s official Week 1 injury designations will become clearer later in game week.
This preview will be updated when official injury reports are released.
Packers vs Vikings Total Prediction
Current Total: 46.5
Projected Score: Minnesota 24, Green Bay 20
Projected Total: 44 points
Our early lean is Under 46.5.
There are several reasons.
Minnesota may take a relatively conservative approach in Murray’s first regular-season start in O’Connell’s offense.
Green Bay is without its starting workhorse running back.
Both teams have enough defensive talent to prevent easy explosive plays.
Divisional familiarity can also matter in a matchup where both coaching staffs understand the opponent well.
However, Jordan Love, Justin Jefferson, Christian Watson and Kyler Murray all create explosive-play potential.
Our projected 24-20 score gives us a 2.5-point cushion beneath the current total.
That is enough for a lean but not enough for us to make the Under our strongest wager on the game.
Total Lean: Under 46.5.
Why Minnesota -1.5 Is Better Than -3
This is an important price-sensitive matchup.
Our projected score is Minnesota 24, Green Bay 20.
That gives Minnesota a four-point projected victory.
At -1.5, a three-point Vikings win covers.
At -2.5, it still covers.
At -3, a field-goal win pushes.
At -3.5, the same result loses.
Because our raw power-rating number is only Minnesota -1.4, we do not want to chase the market if the Vikings continue moving upward.
Target Price: Minnesota -1.5 or better.
At Minnesota -3 or higher: PASS and reassess.
Packers vs Vikings Projected Score
ROCKETMAN SPORTS NFL WEEK 1 PREDICTION
MINNESOTA VIKINGS 24
GREEN BAY PACKERS 20
Best Bet: Minnesota -1.5 or Better
Total Lean: Under 46.5
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Packers vs Vikings Prediction FAQ
What is the Packers vs Vikings prediction?
Rocketman Sports projects Minnesota to defeat Green Bay 24-20 in Week 1.
What is the best bet for Packers vs Vikings?
Minnesota -1.5 or better is our preferred early-week wager.
What do the Rocketman NFL Power Ratings make the line?
Green Bay is rated +2.6 and Minnesota +2.0. After approximately two points for Minnesota home-field advantage, our raw fair line is Vikings -1.4.
What is the Packers vs Vikings spread?
Minnesota is currently approximately a 1.5-point home favorite after Green Bay opened around -2.5.
What is the Packers vs Vikings total?
The current Over/Under is approximately 46.5 points. Our projected 24-20 score creates an early lean toward the Under.
Is Josh Jacobs playing against Minnesota?
Jacobs is currently on the Commissioner’s Exempt List and cannot play while he remains on that list.
Is Micah Parsons playing Week 1?
Parsons is recovering from reconstructive ACL surgery and is expected to miss the beginning of the regular season.
Who is starting quarterback for the Vikings?
Kyler Murray won Minnesota’s quarterback competition and was officially named the Vikings’ 2026 starter.
Is Tucker Kraft expected to play?
Kraft returned to team practice during August after recovering from his ACL injury and has been targeting a Week 1 return. His official game-week status should still be monitored.
What time does Packers vs Vikings start?
Green Bay and Minnesota kick off Sunday, September 13 at 4:25 PM ET from U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis.
Final Packers vs Vikings Prediction
Our early Packers vs Vikings prediction is Minnesota 24, Green Bay 20.
The raw power ratings say this matchup should be almost exactly where the sportsbook currently has it.
Green Bay rates slightly higher on a neutral field.
Minnesota’s home-field advantage swings the fair line toward the Vikings.
The deciding factor is Green Bay’s personnel situation.
The Packers enter Week 1 without Josh Jacobs and Micah Parsons, two players who significantly affect the identity of the team.
Minnesota has uncertainty of its own because Kyler Murray is beginning his first regular season in Kevin O’Connell’s system.
But Murray gets Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson and a capable running-back combination at home.
At Vikings -1.5, we are willing to back Minnesota.
If the number reaches -3 or higher, the value changes considerably.
Final Pick: Minnesota Vikings -1.5 or better
Projected Score: Minnesota 24, Green Bay 20
Total Lean: Under 46.5
Early Week Status: This article will be updated as official injuries, public betting percentages and sportsbook lines develop before Sunday.
Odds and betting information were reviewed September 5, 2026 and are subject to change. Player availability remains subject to official Week 1 injury designations. Picks, projections and power ratings are opinions and research tools, not guarantees. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please wager responsibly.