This AFC West battle would have had a lot more intrigue with Antonio Brown on the Raiders. Now that he's gone, Oakland is going to have a hard time scoring. Denver's defense should be able to get whatever they want on the Oakland offensive line that has had some injury and suspension issues. Josh Jacobs is the rookie running back and he'll need to do work considering Tyrell Williams and Hunter Renfrow are Derek Carr's best weapons. The Broncos will rely on Von Miller and Bradley Chubb for pressure while Chris Harris shuts off half the field. 

On the Denver side, you've got Joe Flacco under center along with two solid running backs and a decent group of receivers. If you think Flacco has a lot left then he could find some success against this new look Raiders defense. I don't necessarily believe that's the case. Oakland's improved their safety play and has some decent pass rushers themselves. Denver has gone under in 21 of their last 32 games overall. The under has hit in five straight meetings. I think that trend continues on Monday. 

It's an NFC East battle in week one as the Cowboys host the Giants. Dallas has some interesting circumstances entering this one with Ezekiel Elliott holding out and Amari Cooper dealing with a foot injury. Cooper hasn't really practiced that much but swears he'll be ready for gameday. Without Zeke, it's Tony Pollard's show in the backfield. This offensive line should make almost anyone look like a 1,000 yard rusher. It's to be seen as to how good Randall Cobb is at replacing Cole Beasley as the slot guy with Jason Witten back as well. The Cowboys defense is pretty strong and has plenty of talent on all levels. They could have the best linebacker group in football and if that's not the case, then they are top 5. The Giants are a trainwreck as they have Saquon Barkley and pretty much no one else. Eli Manning is over the hill and he's got no one to throw to except Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard. Golden Tate is on suspension and the offensive line is very sketchy. Yes, the New York defense isn't that good, but I think Dallas will have to work for their touchdowns. Last year these two played a 20-13 game at home and a 36-35 contest in MetLife although that game featured very few starters as Dallas clinched things. You could take the number now and hope Zeke doesn't play or you could wait till closer if he does start and get a higher number. I'll take my chances he's out and I don't lose this. 

The Andrew Luck news rocked the NFL world on August 24th and then Vegas came out and overreacted to what they saw. Luck was a great quarterback and there's no doubt that the offense won't be as good. Taking over for him is Jacoby Brissett who is no slouch. He's had experience in this system and is playing behind a very improved offensive line. T.Y. Hilton is still a strong receiver and the tight end group is the best in football. I have all the faith in the world that there won't be that much of a decline. The Colts defense is not terrible either. The Chargers offense is without Melvin Gordon and has a mediocre offensive line in my mind. The defense lost Derwin James at safety and I think it's a big loss for that group. To me, it's no guarantee that the Colts lose, but I think that even if they do, it'll be a one score game. Just watch Brissett ball out in this offense.

It's an NFC East battle to start out the 2019 campaign as the Eagles host the Redskins. I've been covering the Skins for awhile and watched them in training camp. This is a team that's going to play in a lot of 17-13 type games. Their front seven is one of the best in football and they will be able to get pressure on a lot of teams. With Josh Norman and Landon Collins in the secondary, at least a half of the field will be tough to navigate as well. There's definitely some holes and youth to worry about, but I think this team will at least make people work for their scores. The Washington offense is not going to succeed unless their ground game is going and half of the offensive line is a wreck without Trent Williams. Their recipe for success is to run Guice and AP as much as possible and grind out long drives. On the other side you have the Eagles who had Carson Wentz sit out the preseason. This offense should be absolutely incredible, but I bet it'll take some time to get on track. There's a ton of weapons out wide and in the backfield. There's a reason why I think this is a Super Bowl champion. The defense should be able to gain an edge up front and the secondary is good enough to keep the Skins down. Last year these two teams played a 28-13 game in Philly and a 24-0 game in DC. I can see a similar score in this one. If Washington gets to 16 points I'll be stunned. 

I isolated this play all the way in the offseason because it's the perfect sandwich to take advantage involving Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane lost a very physical 28-7 game on the road against Michigan State. Tulsa had a whopping -73 net rushing yards and 153 pass yards in the loss. Their defense wasn't terrible, but a lot of that was because of the milquetoast playcalling of Sparty. Tulsa has got a massive game next week at home against in-state rival Oklahoma State. It's their first home game of the season and they don't get the Cowboys at home very often. In between these two games is a west coast road trip to play San Jose State. The Golden Hurricane have lost 13 straight road games and have been a road favorite just six times since Philip Montgomery has taken over with a record of 3-3 against the spread. 

San Jose State is coming off a 35-18 home win over Northern Colorado. Josh Love accounted for three touchdowns in the win and he's a pretty good quarterback. On defense Ethan Aguayo had 20 tackles and a sack. There's some confidence on this sideline as they lost their FCS game last year to UC Davis. The last three years San Jose State is 6-4-1 against the spread as a home underdog. They return 13 starters and had a few close losses at home. The last time these two played was back in 2016 when Tulsa won 45-10. I just think this is an awful spot for the Golden Hurricane and like the home team to cover this one with the small chance of an outright win. 

I'll start this off by saying that I despise Miami and think the college football world is really thirsty hoping they'll return. The Canes are coming off a tough 24-20 loss to Florida in which they were under siege all night. When given time Jarren Williams looked good getting Osborn and Brevin Jordan going. If the OL can give him time then I think they'll return to form. The defense had a horrible time tackling, but this could be the best linebacking unit in college football with Quarterman and Pinckney. Last year the Canes smoked UNC 47-10 at home. The Tar Heels are coming off a really feel good win over South Carolina in front of the public in Charlotte. I still don't think Mack Brown was a great hire, but for one week, there's a lot of positivity surrounding this program. Quite simply, I just think Miami is better and people are overreacting to one week's worth of results. Give me the road team's moneyline.

Texas Tech won game one 45-10 over Montana State in a contest that saw the Red Raiders find some rare defensive success. The team gave up over 30 points per game last year and only have six starters back. It's the offense with Alan Bowman that kept things going. Matt Wells came over from Utah State and he wants things to go massively uptempo. For some perspective, in games as massive favorites last year, Texas Tech put up 77 on Lamar and 48 on Kansas. This offense hums no matter who the opponent is. UTEP beat Houston Baptist 36-34 in week one. The Miners scored over 30 points twice last year and while it was an FCS opponent, that's still a good effort. Treyvon Hughes ran for a career high 144 yards and Brandon Jones looked better then he did last year. The defense was atrocious against HBU with the secondary getting crushed and the pretty much no pass rush. The worry here is that UTEP does nothing on the scoreboard other then take up time of possession. I think the Red Raiders can approach 60 points in this one because they are talking about going even faster then last week. TT has gone over in six of their last nine home games with a total of 63 or more. I'll take a shot that this is a 52-20 type game. 

Last week I said that I wanted to watch the FIU/Tulane game to see for future bets and I was highly disappointed by the Golden Panthers effort. They lost 42-14 to the Green Wave in a contest that saw both sides struggle. I've got to expect better things from James Morgan and his wealth of weapons. I think Maurice Alexander is a nice complementary piece with Austin Maloney as well, but there were way too many dropped passes. The defense returned eight starters, but didn't do much to slow down Tulane. Last year these two teams played a 38-17 game in Kentucky with the squad out of Florida getting the win. 

Western Kentucky lost 35-28 to Central Arkansas and that disappointed me as well as I like the Toppers this season. Steven Duncan had a good start with a couple of touchdown passes, but then he had some awful interceptions. I've got to think that if he struggles again then Ty Storey has to come in as the Arkansas transfer is rather talented. This defense is pretty porous and we saw them struggle last year at times in conference. I think we see the real FIU team and this one is a shootout.

Furman hits the road to take on the biggest upset winner from week one in Georgia State. The Paladins are coming off a 46-13 win over Charleston Southern last time out. They ran the ball really well and didn't need to throw it much with Grainger under center. The whole offensive line is back and so are several of the backs. Furman has GSU and Virginia Tech in back-to-back weeks. Last year the Paladins lost 48-7 to Clemson in their only FBS game, but of course this is completely different. It was fun watching Ellington under center for the Panthers. The offense found it's stride and the defense made just enough stops. Remember, this team went 2-10 last year and barely beat it's FCS opponent Kennesaw State 24-10. Georgia State has been a home favorite just 12 times the last ten seasons and have covered just four of those games. I think this is a classic case of a team who can't handle success. They are yapping way too much about their win over Tennessee. The Panthers may win but as long as this stays above a touchdown or near it, I'm in on the underdog. 

This is a bit of a contrarian play. Everyone saw what Louisville did on Monday night against Notre Dame, but anyone can get up when the Fighting Irish come to their school. After the really hot start, the Cardinals cooled off tremendously. Yes, Jawon Pass has talent and can move the ball with his legs, but Rome wasn't built in a day. Last year, this team went 2-10 and beat their FCS opponent Indiana State 31-7 as a 41 point favorite. This team covered just once against the spread in 2018. Eastern Kentucky last year lost to Marshall 32-16 and Bowling Green 42-35 in two close FBS games. This year they started out with a big 53-7 win over Valparaiso. The team racked up over 300 yards of rushing in that one and played some solid defense as well. Conor Blount was under center for some of this and he came from Oregon State. Meanwhile, the running backs are led by Daryl McCleskey and some FBS transfers as well. The Colonels were fifth in FCS football with 19 interceptions last year. Short week for the Cardinals and one where they have to focus up for a lesser opponent. Give me the team who can make them work for it as an around three touchdown underdog. 

Kent State is highly unimpressive and is 0-1 after losing 30-7 at Arizona State last weekend. Woody Barrett has some talent under center, but the question is who will he throw to. The defense has six starters back and should be competitive in this one. Last year in their FCS game they beat Howard 54-14 but we saw what the Bison did against Maryland this season. Kennesaw State won 59-0 last week against a team called Point University out of Georgia. They are a level or two below so the rout was expected in this one. Last year they went 11-2 putting up over 40 points while holding opponents to 15.4 per contest. The offense is undergoing quite the rebuild with Chandler Burks leaving as quarterback. The defense has almost everyone back and they'll force a lot of three and outs potentially. KSU will try to play ball control and reduce the possessions. Last year, this team lost 24-20 at Georgia State. I could see a similar score although the Owls could win on the road.

This is a situational play for me as I really don't love Charleston Southern, but the circumstances surrounding the Gamecocks make this worth a look. South Carolina lost 24-20 to North Carolina and then lost Jake Bentley as well. Ryan Hilinski is going to take over and he's a little raw. This means they may rely on the backfield featuring Rico Dowdle and Tavien Feaster. They might play this one a bit close to the vest because Alabama is next at home on the 14th. Last year this team beat Coastal Carolina (not an FCS team) 49-15 and Chattanooga 49-9 before their matchup with Clemson. South Carolina's defense is pretty strong so that's a concern, but this really seems like a run out the clock situation. CSU lost 46-13 to Furman and that's one of the better FCS teams. Last year they went 5-6 and hired Autry Denson the former Notre Dame running back. He's installing the Air Raid offense and they've got some decent talent to run it. I really feel like if we can get 10-13 points from the underdog, then this one should cover. 

Norfolk State has a top 10 pass defense in the FCS led by senior safeties Bobby Price and Nhyre Quinerly. This team won just four games last year, but they were really close to getting a few more wins. NSU goes as Juwan Carter goes though and he threw for the fourth most yards in program history last season. It's a worry that a lot of his weapons are relatively new but, they are a talented group. They need to get things going on the ground to keep the pressure off Carter though and that's on Aaron Savage. ODU has so many questions they need to answer in this one after a hideous defense last year. This team gave up almost 36 points per game including 52 to Liberty and 51 to Middle Tennessee. The Monarchs are using three different quarterbacks and pretty much a rebuilt group of skill position guys. They've got a couple of good transfers from Virginia Tech, but there's not a lot to like here. This is Norfolk State's Super Bowl as the two campuses are six miles or so apart. I think the road team can make things interesting here. 

VMI was 1-10 last year, but they had some close calls and actually have some weapons. Reece Udinski threw for 3,000 yards with 20 TDs and only 4 INTs. His top three receivers and top four linemen are back. Now, it's a completely different story for them to be competitive in a game against an FBS school. Last year they lost 66-3 at Toledo week one and 77-14 at ODU to finish the year out. Their defense returns a ton of talent, but will it take the next step against a Marshall team that could win C-USA. The Thundering Herd have 14 starters back including eight on offense. Isaiah Green won the job over Alex Thomson and Green brings some interesting intangibles. He's got to cut down on the turnovers as he had 10 interceptions last year. The defense has some returning talent on all levels, but I don't need VMI to score a lot. Marshall has Boise State week two on a Friday night so focus could be a bit of an issue towards the end of this one. This team won their first game last year 35-28 and beat their FCS opponent 32-16. I think this one gets ugly and we see a ton of points scored. 

SHSU went 6-5 last year under K.C. Keeler and it's looking to improve upon that. The offense wasn't the issue with 30 points per game scored. One could point to the defense that struggled to get stops when it was time. The quarterback position comes down to Ty Brock and Eric Schmid. Whomever wins the gig will throw to Nathan Stewart who has had three straight 1,000 yard seasons. The offensive line is a little shaky, but this offense should be able to continue to hum. On defense, nine starters are back led by Erick Fowler up front. 11 of the team's top 13 tacklers return. They've picked up a couple of impact transfers in Toneil Carter from Texas and Trace Mascorro from UTEP. New Mexico went 3-9 last year under Bob Davie and has 10 starters back. They are led by Tevaka Tuioti who was one of three quarterbacks to see time. The Lobos don't have a ton of talent on offense and instead rely on their system to get by. They have to do that because the defense is rather porous. They allowed over 36 points per game last year and have just two starters back. Last year they rolled Incarnate Word 62-30 but I'd say the Bearkats are better. New Mexico went 1-5 at home last season. I think this is too many points and there's a good chance SHSU wins outright.

Eastern Washington went 12-3 last year losing in the conference title game as well as to Washington State and Weber State. The Eagles scored 48 points or more seven times last season. Now they lose Gage Gubrud to transfer as he went to Wazzu as well as Nsimba Webster and Sam McPherson on offense. Eric Barriere is the new signal caller and he's got FBS level talent. He can run and pass and will give defenses fits with his ability. The offensive line should be able to give him plenty of time. The question is who will step up for the big skill position losses. Antoine Custer is a senior who will have to hold off some intriguing options behind him. The defense held opponents to just 16.9 points per game in FCS play because they forced 34 turnovers. The defensive coordinator is gone and two of their leading tacklers as well. Their secondary is really inexperienced but the front seven has some talent. The Huskies will have Jacob Eason under center for this one and he's got to find some weapons to throw to. Myles Gaskin is gone from the backfield. Out wide some of the top weapons are back in Aaron Fuller, Ty Jones and Andre Baccellia. The defense was very strong last year holding teams to 16.4 points per game. Problem is that there's only two starters back so there will be issues on this side of things. Last year they beat North Dakota 45-3 in their only FCS contest. Week two UW has California in a conference game. I don't think there will be a lookahead, but if there is, I think EWU can take advantage. This one could be high scoring.

Utah State went 11-2 last year and their success brought Gary Andersen back to the school for a second stint after Matt Wells moved on to Texas Tech. The Aggies go as Jordan Love goes because they only have two starters back. This team put up incredible numbers last year offensively, but are without a lot of that talent. The leading rusher is Gerold Bright who is pretty solid, but the leading receiver had just under 300 yards receiving last year. The offensive line has a long way to go too. Defensively, the Aggies are led by David Woodward who could be the best linebacker in the conference. There are 7 starters back on a team that held opponents to 22.2 points per contest. They held BYU to 20 points and Hawaii to 17 points on the road last year. Wake Forest went 7-6 in 2018 and have 12 starters back themselves. Jamie Newman was named quarterback after he had nine touchdowns and four INTs last season. His main weapons are Cade Carney at running back and Sage Surratt out wide. This team had a very hot and cold offense in 2018 and I expect more of the same in 2019. Defensively, I expect some improvement from the 33.3 points allowed last year. Upon further inspection, the numbers are skewed because they allowed 56 to Notre Dame, 63 to Clemson and 41 to Syracuse. These two played in Winston-Salem back in 2017 with the Demon Deacons winning 46-10. I don't expect either side to match that score in 2019. I think this total is a little high. The numbers skew to the over for the Aggies, but there will be some offensive growing pains. Give me the under. 

It's amazing how far Army has come since going 2-10 in 2015. They are over three touchdown favorites against a horrific Rice team to open up the college football season and I'm not batting an eye at it. The Black Knights have seven starters back on offense and four back on defense. The offense figures to be stong with Kelvin Hopkins under center and Connor Slomka and Kell Walker in the backfield. Usually, I don't like to back the triple option teams when there's extra time to prepare for it because teams look good against it, but this is a mismatch. Last year Army lost 34-14 to Duke in week one. They beat Rice on the road back in 2017 49-12 in a game that was 35-0 at halftime. The Owls went 2-11 last year and return six starters on each side of the ball. Their quarterback situation stinks and so does their offensive line. This team doesn't score a ton and has a leaky defense too. Last year they lost by 14, 18, 32, 19, 24, 15 and 32 on the road. Army has Michigan in week two but this is one of those schools that doesn't do the lookahead thing. They are a focused bunch and should be able to blow out this Rice team. Rice has covered just three of their last nine non-conference games.

The Jackrabbits went 10-3 last year in the Missouri Valley. Two of those losses came to the eventual national champion North Dakota State. This team lost their quarterback Taryn Christion which is a massive concern, but there are some options to replace him. Redshirt freshman J'Bore Gibbs is going to get first crack and he's got a new coordinator in Jason Eck who was the team's offensive line coach. There are a ton of weapons with pretty much all of the skill positions back outside of Isaac Wallace. Pierre Strong Jr and Cade Johnson are two of the best. The other concern on offense is the offensive line which has a few guys they have to replace. On defense, there's a new coordinator as well, but the front seven is strong. Get to know the names Ryan Earith and Krockett Krollikowski. This side of the ball has issues in the secondary with just one returning starter. Luckily Minnesota's offense is more predicated on the run game with Mohamed Ibrahim and Rodney Smith among others. Under center will be Tanner Morgan who had nine touchdowns and six interceptions for the Golden Gophers. The defense has seven starters back so they figure to be a stiff challenge for the Jackrabbits to move the ball on. Still, this team has some issues and has struggled at times at home. They only beat Fresno and Indiana by 7 points apiece there to go along with a 17 point home loss to Iowa. Last year SDSU's FBS game at Iowa State was cancelled due to weather. I think as long as we get two touchdowns or more, then the underdog is worth a look.

Central Arkansas went 6-5 last year in the Southland Conference. The team averaged 30.5 points per game while giving up 26.1. Last year they opened up the year against Tulsa of the FBS level and lost 38-27. In that game they actually had a 13-7 lead at the end of the first quarter and were able to move the ball on the Golden Hurricane. The Bears have a pair of quarterbacks who threw for over 1,000 yards and a great tandem of running backs in Carlos Blackman and Kierre Crossley. They picked up two wide receiver transfers from Arkansas and have a pretty much intact offensive line. On defense, they are led by Chris Terrell who is a fantastic defensive lineman. Meanwhile, Western Kentucky is led by Tyson Helton who comes over from Tennessee where he was their offensive coordinator. Helton was Sam Darnold's QB coach at USC and is pretty good with offense. The team named Steven Duncan quarterback, but he's going to have a short leash with Arkansas transfer Ty Storey behind him. Duncan is one of 10 offensive starters back and he's got a ton of weapons led by Quin Jernighan and Lucky Jackson at wide receiver. The run game took a bit of a hit when Quinton Baker left the roster, but there's a host of other options. The defense has six starters back, but they allowed nearly 28 points per game. Deangelo Malone is really strong as a defensive lineman, but the linebacking group is a concern. This team knows the talent that the FCS school has as last year they lost 31-28 to Maine as a nine point favorite. There is a conference game in week two, but I think they are focused on this one. I think plenty of points will be scored in a contest that will be back and forth.

Bowling Green last year went 3-9 and has decided to hire Scot Loeffler as their new head coach. This could be the worst hire in college football because he's proven to be a mediocre to poor offensive coordinator everywhere he's gone from Temple to Boston College to Auburn. The Falcons have seven starters back on offense but Jarret Doege was supposed to be under center. He took his talents to West Virginia where he'll play for them. Luckily, Darius Wade came over from Boston College and he lends some credibility to the position. There's some decent talent at some of the skill positions so maybe they can put some points. Defensively, this team is absolutely hideous. Last year they gave up 40 points per game including 58 to Oregon, 45 to Maryland and 44 to Buffalo. The Falcons played Eastern Kentucky of the OVC in 2018 and barely won 42-35. Morgan State went 4-7 last year and they have a new head coach in former Michigan RB Tyrone Wheatley. The Bears beat North Carolina A&T and had four close losses. They have 17 starters back and a new energy with Wheatley as coach. DeAndre Harris and D.J. Golatt are under center and each were able to provide something different. The defense is where the strength is with the top three interception guys and the #2 and #3 tacklers back. Bowling Green is nothing special so why are they three touchdown favorites. I understand the MEAC is nothing special, but come on with this. Give me the underdog.

Robert Morris went 2-9 last year in their first year under Bernard Clark Jr. The offense averaged just under 25 points per game and allowed nearly 44. They lost 49-46 to Bryant and 40-39 to Eastern Kentucky who is a really good squad in the OVC. The Colonels have nine starters back on offense and eight on defense so things could be looking up for them. One of the guys back on O is Matthew Gonzalez who is one of the best FCS tight ends in the country. The offensive line has four guys to rely on with Terence Stephens running the ball for 831 yards. The issues come on defense as we said. Last year, RMU did not play any FBS opponents, but lost 73-7 on the road to James Madison on a Thursday night. On the other side you've got a Buffalo team with just eight starters back total. The Bulls are without all-world QB Tyree Jackson as well as WRs Anthony Johnson and KJ Osborn who transferred to Miami. Matt Myers will be the new quarterback and it looks like he'll be without leading receiver Antonio Nunn who had 26 catches last year. The team will rely on RB Jaret Patterson and Kevin Marks who combined for nearly 2,000 yards rushing between the two of them. This side of the ball has a lot of rebuilding to do. The defense loses Khalil Hodge and has just one returning starter on each level. To me, this seems like a lot of points. Last year a better Bulls team was a 44 point favorite against Delaware State and they only won 48-10. Yes, RMU is no great shakes, but I really think that they can be semi-competitive. Give me the almost seven touchdowns with the underdog.

Zach Davies comes off the IL to make the start for Milwaukee against the Cardinals. Davies had allowed 18 runs and 20 hits over his last three starts previously and is regressing after a solid start to the year. He doesn't strike out a ton of guys and has mediocre stuff. Davies faced St. Louis back in April giving up two runs and seven hits in just over four innings. StL found a lot of offense in Cincinnati and are now returning home. Dakota Hudson is 11-6 with a 3.82 ERA on the year. He's coming off a great start against lowly KC. Before that he had allowed 11 runs in his previous three outings. He's seen the Brewers twice this season giving up 10 runs and 15 hits in eight innings of work. Milwaukee flexed some muscle on Saturday and then struggled on Sunday. Still, these two should put up some fireworks on Monday. 

Aaron Civale continues to pitch well for the Indians who are in New York. Civale has allowed two runs and nine hits in his last 18 innings as a starter with 18 strikeouts to just four walks. Cleveland's bullpen isn't that bad and with injuries, the Yankees lineup isn't as strong as they used to be. Masahiro Tanaka is 8-6 with a 4.64 ERA for the home team. He had a rough stretch snapped last time out against the Jays. Tanaka held them to three hits in eight innings. Before that he allowed 10 hits in five innings to the Orioles. Cleveland's lineup isn't as much of a joke as it used to be and they flexed their muscles on Thursday. I think there's a bit of an edge with the road team and their runline.

Masahiro Tanaka has hit a rough stretch in his season. The righty has allowed 19 runs and 27 hits over his last 12 innings. Tanaka is 7-6 with a 4.93 ERA overall. This is the third time he's seen the Jays giving up six runs and 10 hits in 12 innings over the previous two outings. Toronto has scored four runs or more in 14 of their last 15 games as the offense incorporates more youth. The Yanks bullpen has given up plenty of runs and can be beaten. Since coming off the IL, Trent Thornton has allowed seven runs and 13 hits to the Rays and Orioles. This is the third time he's faced New York and both the previous outings were not great. Thornton has allowed nine runs and 12 hits in just over eight innings. New York's offense should be able to get to him and a mediocre bullpen. Give me the over. 

Jake Arrieta is dealing with bone spurs and can really only go five innings. He's lost some velocity and doesn't throw his cutter a ton now either. Because of that, he's essentially a worthless pitcher. Also, this means a terrible bullpen is going to have to cover more innings. Pittsburgh has gone over in eight of their last 11 games with some of that being their offense, but some of that is because of their terrible staff. Jordan Lyles has allowed 17 runs and 19 hits over his last 11 innings as the righty has hit some massive struggles. The Philly lineup is starting to pick up some steam and saw some success against the Dodgers. I think we could see a ton of runs in this game.

Mike Clevinger is 2-2 with a 4.44 ERA. Clevinger has a 3.05 ERA in 10 total appearances against Minnesota. He's pitched well at home this year and Minnesota started to fade a little bit down the stretch. Kyle Gibson is on the other side and he's 8-4 with a 4.09 ERA on the year. Last year Gibson pitched three times in Cleveland giving up 12 runs and 18 hits in almost 18 innings of work. I'm just not a Gibson guy and Cleveland is playing some good baseball right now. I think Cleveland has a good bullpen and I think they take game one of this series. 

Anthony DeSclafani has pitched well at home as of late. He held the Cubs and Astros to one run and 11 hits in 11 innings with 11 strikeouts and just two walks. Disco pitched well against the Tribe in Cleveland last month holding them to one run and four hits in just over five innings. The Indians have won four straight since getting blasted in two straight games 13-0 by the Orioles. Cincy's bullpen should be rested and ready for this one and they've got some solid arms. Shane Bieber is coming off a winning effort in Baltimore where he held the listless Orioles to three hits in eight innings while striking out 11. The Reds have gone 6-2-1 to the under in their last nine games. Cleveland's bullpen isn't terrible either. I think the runline and Under are worth a look here.

Yusei Kikuchi is seeing Oakland for the fourth time this season. The rookie has allowed 10 runs and 19 hits in just over 14 innings. Kikuchi is 1-4 with an 8.42 ERA in his last seven starts. He only has 19 strikeouts to 18 walks over that span too. Oakland's lineup is putting up over five runs per game against southpaw pitching. Seattle's bullpen isn't great either. Brett Anderson is as mediocre as they come. He's 8-5 with a 3.92 ERA this season. Anderson has seen the Mariners twice this season giving up five runs and 11 hits in just over 12 innings. Seattle's lineup is having issues right now, but they are averaging over five runs per contest themselves. The A's bullpen can be beaten. I think this one should see a ton of runs. 

Reynaldo Lopez is 4-7 with a 6.12 ERA. He has the worst ERA among qualifying pitchers although over his last four outings it's 4.63. Lopez did have two decent outings against the Tigers back in April holding them to two earned runs and nine hits in 12 innings while striking out 22. Detroit has scored 17 runs in their last eight games and just don't have a great offense. Matt Boyd has allowed 14 runs and 18 hits over his last 17 innings of work. The southpaw is 0-5 with a 6.23 ERA in seven starts at Guaranteed Rate Field. The White Sox are hitting .276 over their last seven games and against left-handed starters as well. I like the home team's bullpen more then Detroit's as well. Give me the White Sox in this one.

Joe Musgrove has pitched well in his last two starts allowing one run and 14 hits in 13 innings to the Astros and Padres. Musgrove is 6-7 with a 4.27 ERA this season. He lost to the Cubs back on April 11th but held them to two unearned runs and four hits in just over six innings. Over four starts against Chicago, he's given up just four earned runs and 19 hits in just over 26 innings. The Cubs lineup is very hot and cold. Kyle Hendricks is coming off the IL and will be held to 60-75 pitches. I love fading pitchers off injury because it's hard to get right back into the thick of things. The Cubs have lost four straight of Kyle's starts against the Pirates although none have come this year. The Pittsburgh lineup is in good form right now. I think they can take this one on Tuesday. 

The Mets are a trainwreck right now and lost another game out of their bullpen. This seems like a good time to continue to fade them. Max Fried has bounced back a little bit from his struggles and is coming off a winning effort in Wrigley in which he held the Cubs to two runs and two hits in six innings. He did walk five in that one, but struck out eight. Fried faced the Mets back on 6/19 giving up two runs and eight hits in six innings. Noah Syndergaard goes for the home team. He's 5-4 with a 4.55 ERA in 15 starts. Thor is coming off the injured list and could only go 5 innings if the team wants to ease him back. This Atlanta offense should tee off on the NY bullpen once again. Give me the road team in this one. 

James Paxton gets the call for the Yankees and he lost in Houston back in April giving up five runs and eight hits in four innings. Paxton has had two rough outings in his last three giving up 12 runs and 19 hits over his last 13 innings and change. The Astros are 16-5 against left-handed starters hitting .276 in those games. We're getting a really competent lineup plus a run and it seems like a gift even if the Yankees are extremely hot. Brad Peacock is 5-4 with a 3.77 ERA in 13 starts. He's lost two of his last three, but is in good form overall as of late. Houston's bullpen has just three losses and four blown saves on the road. I think this price is just a bit too good for me not to consider it. 

Frankie Montas is 9-2 with a 2.85 ERA this season. He has allowed three earned runs or less in 13 of his 14 starts. This will be the first time for Montas to face Tampa Bay. They can't be feeling good after getting swept in New York. I'm not a huge fan of the Rays offense outside of a few hitters. Charlie Morton is 5-0 with a 1.59 ERA in eight road starts with five unders. He faced Oakland back on 6/10 holding them to two hits and two walks in seven innings. Oakland's lineup doesn't scare me a ton either and they got healthy against Baltimore. I think these two pitchers are locked in early and it goes under. 

One of the things I like to do is fade pitchers coming off the IL because they usually aren't ready for game speed and they are a bit rusty. Well in this game we have two candidates who are both coming off long stints away. Jordan Zimmermann last pitched on 4/25 in Boston against the Red Sox. Zimm made two minor league rehab starts giving up six runs and eight hits in just over seven innings among two levels. The Pirates lineup has some threats in it plus the DET bullpen is rather awful. Trevor Williams last pitched on 5/16 with him making one rehab start. The righty gave up two runs and four hits in three innings in AAA. Detroit's lineup is devoid of talent, but Pittsburgh's bullpen has an ERA approaching six at home. To me this one is simple with two bad bullpens getting a large chunk of innings. 

Michael Pineda has been a bit better as of late giving up seven runs and 13 hits in just over 16 innings. Pineda is walking less guys and actually has had a stretch of giving up no homers as well. That's been his problem a lot of the year so far. Boston's lineup has a lot of threats and is in good form right now, but that was against a bad Baltimore pitching staff. David Price is coming off a hideous home outing against the Rangers in which he gave up six runs and five hits in just over one inning. Minnesota is hitting .303 against left-handed starters scoring 7.1 runs per contest. They are hitting around .300 in their last eight games. Boston's bullpen just doesn't scare me that much. I think Minnesota wins this one at home on Tuesday. 

This is a bit of an odd price considering how bad the Reds have been. Ariel Jurado has won three straight starts giving up eight runs and 18 hits over 18 innings. He has 18 strikeouts to just seven walks. Cincy is hitting around .200 in their last eight games and are 9-21 in day games. Texas' bullpen is a worry but the runline gives us a little bit of a cushion. Sonny Gray is 2-5 with a 3.51 ERA in 13 starts. He's not going deep in starts averaging just under five innings per start at home. Texas is averaging over six runs per game against right-handed starters and nearly seven runs per contest in the daytime. The Reds bullpen isn't infallible. I think the Rangers runline is worth a look. 

Ivan Nova is 3-5 with a 6.28 ERA in 13 starts with nine of them going over. Nova is 0-3 with a 9.39 ERA in five home outings this season. He did hold the Yankees to one run and four hits in New York back in April. New York is hitting .263 on the road going over in 22 of 31 contests. The Sox bullpen has a 4.34 ERA this season with 10 losses and three blown saves. JA Happ is 6-3 with a 4.48 ERA in 13 starts. Happ gave up six runs and nine hits in four innings to the White Sox back in April. Chicago is averaging nearly five runs per game against left-handed starters. Their offense is capable of adding to this total. The Yankees bullpen has a 4.72 ERA on the road and has eight losses and nine blown saves. I think this one could see a ton of runs.

Zach Plesac has been a pleasant surprise for the Indians this season. The starter has allowed four runs and 14 hits in three starts with 14 strikeouts to just three walks. Two of those outings were against the Yankees and Red Sox so I don't consider these to be joke numbers. The Reds are hitting .197 over their last seven games and .221 on the road. They've gone under in 40 of their 65 games overall including 24 of 37 on the road. Cleveland's bullpen is 10-3 with a 3.28 ERA at home although it is a concern that Brad Hand went two innings on Tuesday. Anthony DeSclafani is 2-3 with a 4.70 ERA in 12 starts. He's been a mixed bag this year although it's not good he's allowed 14 HRs. Cleveland's lineup really doesn't scare me a ton outside of a few hitters. They are hitting .228 at home and .223 against right-handed starters. The Reds bullpen has some live arms despite losing yesterday. I think this total is way too high for two teams that struggle to score. 

I think this line movement is ridiculous. The line plunged a few points because Kevin Durant may have practiced behind closed doors? I think that's nuts. Who knows how effective he will be and how much the offense will change with him in there. With Durant in the lineup, the team too often ran isolation plays for him which hurt Curry and Thompson who rely more on passing the ball around to get open. Toronto's in a zone right now and with a crowd ready to celebrate, I think we see the temporary end of the Warriors dynasty. They just don't have enough now even with a 50% KD. 

Jerad Eickhoff is coming off a winning effort in San Diego in which he held them to three runs and four hits in six innings. Eickhoff has some ugly numbers, but he's feeling good about how he looks as of late. Arizona has won four straight, but they are coming off a series in Toronto against their horrible pitching. The Phillies bullpen has just three blown saves at home. Taylor Clarke is 1-2 with a 5.59 ERA in four starts. He has allowed 13 runs and 21 hits striking out 13 while walking only seven. The Phillies are averaging over five runs per game at home where they are 22-12. I think Philly has a slight edge in the pen. Give me the home team in this one. 

Noah Syndergaard has had a terrible season so far. He's 3-4 with a 4.83 ERA in 13 starts. Thor has allowed 12 runs and 22 hits over his last 18 innings. He's been beaten up a bit by some bad offenses over that stretch in the Giants and Tigers. Thor is still racking up the strike outs but something else is off. Charlie Blackmon is back for Colorado and the lineup is doing well right now. They are averaging around .280 over their last eight games. Jeff Hoffman has a 7.29 ERA, but has shown some decent stuff. The righty has 22 strikeouts in 21 innings with just five walks. He lost in Chicago last time out. The Mets lineup is hitting .228 in day games and just doesn't have a ton of threats. Colorado's bullpen isn't as bad as you'd think especially on the road where they have an ERA under three. I think there's some value with the Rockies runline. 

Framber Valdez is making his first start of the season after coming out of the bullpen. We'll see how many pitches he'll be able to throw as a starter which makes this more intriguing considering Houston's bullpen will have to cover more innings. The unit is pretty good but we could see some of their lesser arms. Valdez has allowed 10 runs and 22 hits in 26 innings with 21 strikeouts and 13 walks. Baltimore's offense isn't great, but they can contribute a couple of runs sometimes. Andrew Cashner has a 7.87 ERA in his last three starts and is putting a ton of runners on base with a 1.750 WHIP. Houston's lineup is really good and should be able to get to Cashner and a mediocre to poor Baltimore bullpen. Give me the over in this one.

Nick Pivetta has made two good starts since coming from the minor leagues. Last time out he struck out nine and held the Dodgers to three hits in six innings. The outing before that he had one bad inning and bounced back to hold St. Louis to three runs and three hits in five innings. Pivetta was a decent pitcher last year and saw them twice. He held Cincy to seven runs and 11 hits in 13 innings with 19 strikeouts to just two walks. I've never really been a Tanner Roark guy. He doesn't go deep in games and just has mediocre stuff. Roark is 6-6 with a 3.47 ERA in 12 starts. The Phillies have the better lineup and maybe the slightest of edges in bullpen although not by much. I'll take the home team in this one.

It's amazing that Edwin Jackson is still in this league. He's 0-3 with a 13.22 ERA this season. Jackson gave up 10 runs in his last start in Colorado and has a 5.21 ERA against the Yankees. The righty shouldn't be in the league anymore and now faces a Yankees team that has the offense to make him pay. JA Happ is 5-3 with a 4.83 ERA. He's coming off a solid effort vs. the Red Sox. I think he's got very meh stuff so I'll fade him when I can. Toronto is averaging 4.4 runs per game against left-handed starters. The lineup is in decent form right now. The New York bullpen has been bad this series. Give me the over. 

Spencer Turnbull is 0-2 with a 2.81 ERA in six home starts this season. He's coming off a winning outing in Atlanta where he held the Braves to two runs and five hits in six innings. He's got 64 strikeouts and 24 walks in just over 66 innings. Tampa's offense is putting up good numbers, but they've gone under in more then half of their road games. Charlie Morton is 4-0 with a 1.88 ERA in seven road starts. Morton has allowed eight runs and 11 hits over his last three starts and shouldn't struggle with the Tigers much. Detroit is hitting around .223 at home and .222 against right-handed starters. Tampa's bullpen is good, but the Tigers are not. Give me the under. 

Glenn Sparkman has had one good start and one bad one this season. Sparkman is coming off a short game against the White Sox where he gave up four runs and three hits in one inning. Boston is hitting .287 in their last seven games averaging six runs per contest over that span. They are averaging over five runs per game against right-handed starters as well. KC's bullpen is 4-13 with a 4.73 ERA and nine blown saves in 15 opportunities. Eduardo Rodriguez is 2-3 with a 6.53 ERA in six road starts with five of them going over the total. Last year he gave up five runs and five hits in four innings at home to these guys. KC has gone over in 17 of their 28 home games where they are averaging 4.6 runs per contest. The Red Sox bullpen has seven losses and eight blown saves as a unit. These two have gone over in eight of their last 12 meetings including five of six in KC. 

Matt Strahm has a 2.53 ERA over his last nine outings and had 10 strikeouts against the Yankees last time out. He's got a solid mix of pitches and is facing the worst lineup in baseball. Miami is slightly better against lefties but to me it really doesn't matter. Trevor Richards had a 2.86 ERA in five May starts. He's struggled a bit away from home, but I think he's got good stuff and should be able to keep the Pads hitters in check. Hitters are batting .183 against his changeup too. Give me the game under. I think Miami got all their runs for the series last night. 

Mike Soroka is 5-1 with a 1.07 ERA in eight starts for the Braves with six of those going under the total. He's been absolutely incredible this season with 46 strikeouts to 15 walks in just over 50 innings. The Tigers entered Friday night hitting .227 on the road and .218 against right-handed starters. They've gone under in more then half of their road games, because their offense is so brutal. Daniel Norris has a 3.68 ERA in four road starts. He's had two straight decent outings against the Orioles and Marlins, but he's not gone deep in those games. The Braves offense has hit a little bit of a funk although they are putting up some runs. Both bullpens scare me tremendously but maybe we get lucky and they both go deep into the starts. 

Jake Arrieta is 5-4 with a 3.60 ERA in 11 starts for the Phillies. Over his last two road starts he held the Cubs and Brewers to three runs and 13 hits over 14 innings of work. He has allowed three earned runs or fewer in eight of his 11 starts this season. He beat the Dodgers twice last year including a road start where he gave up six hits and two walks in seven innings. He actually beat Kenta Maeda in that one. The righty is pitching really well right now although he's not going deep in ballgames. The Phillies lineup is actually in good form themselves right now. The bullpen edge slightly goes to the road team too so give me the road runline to keep things close. 

Manny Banuelos is facing the Indians for the third time in since May 9th. The southpaw has been rocked both times by the Tribe giving up 10 runs and 12 hits in just over eight innings. Last time out he lost to the Twins giving up five runs and five hits in four innings of work. Cleveland's offense isn't very good, but they should be able to get to the southpaw and Chicago's mediocre bullpen. Carlos Carrasco is 2-3 with a 5.61 ERA in five road starts. He's beaten Banuelos both times in those matchups earlier this month holding Chicago to eight hits in 12 innings. Carrasco is still prone to struggles on the road so maybe Chicago can give me a run or two. I think Cleveland gets a ton off Chicago and wins easily. 

Kyle Freeland has been a mess for Colorado. He's 2-6 with a 6.71 ERA in 11 starts with seven of them going over the total. The southpaw has allowed 13 runs and 19 hits over his last three outings including getting torched at home by the Orioles last time out. Freeland gave up eight runs and nine hits in six innings to the Diamondbacks earlier this month. Arizona is hitting .277 against left-handed hitters going over 13 of 21 games. Colorado's bullpen has an ERA over five at home. Taylor Clarke is making his third major league start. He's given up five runs and 13 hits to the Giants and Rays the last two times. Colorado is putting up six runs per game at home and have slanted heavily to the over. It's a concern that it's an afternoon game, but I still think it's an over.

I like this John Means who is going for Baltimore on Wednesday. The southpaw is 3-1 with a 1.71 ERA in four home starts and is coming off a decent effort in Colorado where he held the Rockies to three runs and seven hits in five innings of work. Means probably needs to get more strikeouts with just 25 in 41 innings, but he's gotten around it from time to time. Detroit is 3-6 against left-handed starters and doesn't really have that impressive of an offense. Outside of Miguel Cabrera, there aren't a ton of threats. Ryan Carpenter is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in three starts for the Tigers. He's had two awful outings at home against the Astros and Angels to go with a decent one against the Mets. Let's be completely honest and say that Baltimore's lineup doesn't have a ton of threats either. They are hitting around .246 against left-handed starters. I just think that the Orioles can put up an early lead and Means can hold down the Tigers. 

Corbin Martin has allowed nine runs and 14 hits in his three starts. Martin has struggled to go deep in games with just over four innings per start. Last time out he gave up four runs and six hits in just over three innings at home to lowly Chicago. The Cubs are averaging over six runs per game on the road and have gone over in 16 of their 23 road games. The interleague play means they can add another bat to their already stout lineup. Jon Lester has allowed 12 runs and 17 hits in his last two starts against the Phillies and Nats. Houston is hitting almost .290 at home with just over five runs per game. The Cubs bullpen has an ERA over five on the road and has a 50% save percentage overall. To me, this one should be a slugfest.

Minnesota has won six straight and 11 of their last 12 as they take on the Brewers. The offense has scored seven runs or more in five straight and nine of their last 11 contests. The offense is pounding pitchers to the tune of around .320 in their last eight contests. I'm not a huge Gio Gonzalez guy despite his hot start. The southpaw has allowed seven runs and 21 hits in five starts. He'll be opposed by Michael Pineda who is 4-3 with a 5.43 ERA in 10 starts. Pineda is not walking hitters with just two in his last three starts. He's had an issue keeping the ball in the ballpark allowing 14 HR. Milwaukee is 12-13 on the road where they are hitting .235. They got swept in their first interleague series this season. Minnesota's bullpen is stellar with five guys with less then a 2.00 ERA. I think the home team is definitely worth a look here. 

Classic case of struggling pitchers against struggling offenses on Monday. Ivan Nova is 3-4 with a 6.96 ERA in 10 starts for the White Sox with nine of them going over the total. He's got a 16.36 ERA at home this season as well. KC is hitting .254 in their last seven games averaging five runs per contest as well. They have gone over in 16 of their 25 day games. The Sox bullpen is okay but they could be covering a ton of innings. Homer Bailey is 4-5 with a 6.13 ERA in 10 starts for the Royals. He's allowed 12 runs and 16 hits over his last three starts spanning all of 11 innings. Chicago is hitting .257 at home this season and has some decent hitters, but if they can't find the spark against Bailey, then it could be a long year. KC's bullpen is 4-11 with a 4.96 ERA and nine blown saves in 14 opportunities. To me, this one should be a slugfest on Memorial Day. 

Brad Peacock has allowed just one run and eight hits over his last three starts striking out 24 while walking five. The righty has been very good as a starter this season. He's being opposed by David Price who is still working his way back from the IL. He held the Jays to two runs and three hits in five innings last time out. Price has allowed three runs or less in five straight outings although they have come against some of the league's weaker lineups. The Astros are not weak and it's rare for me to get a good price on this team at home. I understand how good the Sox lineup can be, but give me a good starter and a great lineup at home. 

Charlie Morton is 4-0 with a 2.65 ERA. He's 3-0 with a 1.95 ERA in six road starts. Morton has very nasty stuff and is backed by a decent bullpen that has some live arms. Cleveland's lineup has a couple of solid hitters, but man, once you get down towards the bottom, it's awful. Before Friday they had scored just 26 runs over a seven game span with 10 of those coming in one game. Carlos Carrasco has a 1.59 ERA in his last three starts allowing three runs and 15 hits over 17 innings. As i've said in the past, Tampa's lineup doesn't scare me that much either although there is some young talent. Cleveland's bullpen is one of it's strengths as a team. Give me the under in this one as I just don't see this one having a lot of runs. 

Wade LeBlanc has a 7.36 ERA allowing 17 runs and 28 hits in just over 18 innings of work. He's just not very good as a pitcher. Oakland is averaging seven runs per game over their last seven contests. The lineup is really inconsistent so that scares me but LeBlanc is backed by a bullpen with a 6.21 ERA on the road. That unit has eight losses and eight blown saves. Daniel Mengden is making his third start of the year. He's allowed five runs and eight hits in just over 12 innings. Seattle has gone over in 20 of their 28 road games averaging nearly six runs per contest. Oakland's bullpen has nine losses and 10 blown saves. They actually have a save percentage below 50%. These two have gone over in three of their four meetings. Give me the over. 

Shane Bieber goes for Cleveland. He's 3-2 with a 3.18 ERA in nine starts this season. He's coming off a complete game shutout of Baltimore in which he struck out 15 giving up five hits. Bieber is hot right now but he's also faced the Orioles and White Sox as of late. Tampa is 16-7 on the road, but I really don't think their lineup is that good. The Indians bullpen has an ERA under three and just three blown saves this season. Blake Snell has just one win in four road starts. He's also pitching well as of late which is a scare. The Indians are 14-12 at home where they average over four runs per game. The lineup has some solid hitters, but has struggled at times. I know Cleveland is in a rough spot right now, but I think this is a lower scoring close game, so give me the runline. 

Matt Boyd is 4-4 with a 3.41 ERA in 10 starts for the Tigers with six of them going under the total. Boyd has a 3.47 ERA in six home starts and he's got 73 strikeouts to just 13 walks in just over 60 innings. The Marlins lineup is pretty putrid and is still struggling to get to 3 runs per game. They are hitting .164 in day games averaging 1.7 runs per contest with 11 unders in 12 day games. Boyd is averaging just over six innings per start, but I think he can get deeper against this weak lineup. Trevor Richards is 1-5 with a 4.44 ERA in nine outings for the Fish. He's coming off a win at home against the Mets and is looking for his first road start. The Tigers lineup is pretty bad too as they are hitting around .160 in their last eight games. Outside of Cabrera and Castellanos, not many players scare me. The Marlins bullpen has a high ERA but not a ton of blown saves. To me, this one is a low scoring game with two pitchers who should find some success. 

Jordan Lyles is 4-1 with a 1.97 ERA in eight starts with five of them going under the total. Lyles has allowed just three runs and 11 hits in his last three starts. Colorado's lineup is still really inconsistent away from home with a batting average around .220. They are averaging just over four runs per contest, but with the early game after a late one on a getaway day, we may get a reduced lineup. The Pirates pen scares me terribly, but I think Lyles can give me seven strong. Antonio Senzatela is 2-1 with a 2.95 ERA away from Coors Field. He's got to keep the walks down so he can get deeper in games. Senzatela held the Phillies to two runs and five hits in five innings, but also walked four. Pittsburgh's lineup doesn't scare me a ton outside of a few hitters. Colorado's bullpen has a nice ERA on the road and should be able to hold a late lead if they have one. Give me the under in this one. 

I was wrong on the Tigers on Tuesday, but I'm going back to the well to take the under in this game. Both of these offenses are hot garbage and the 5-4 score from yesterday won't happen again. Daniel Norris is 2-2 with a 4.55 ERA in six starts. The southpaw is coming off a rough outing against the A's, but the Marlins don't have a ton of threats. Miami is hitting .248 against left-handed starters and are averaging just over two runs per contest on the road. They've gone under in 13 of their 19 road games overall. Detroit's bullpen lost Tuesday's game, but there are some decent arms there. Same with Miami who has ugly numbers, but they also have some decent pitchers in the pen. Jose Urena is 1-6 with a 4.27 ERA in nine starts. He's given up eight runs in his last three starts and has looked pretty good in his last two outings. Detroit is hitting worse then .180 over their last eight games. Their offense just doesn't have a ton of threats. Do I love the pitchers in this game? No, but I think the offenses are just that bad. Give me the under. 

Frankie Montas is 5-2 with a 2.67 ERA in nine starts with four of them going under. He's been fantastic giving up 22 runs and 50 hits in 54 innings with 52 strikeouts and 11 walks. Montas is coming off a great win at Detroit with 10 K's and two runs allowed in a near complete game. The righty held the Indians to two runs and eight hits at home back on 5/10 striking out seven while walking one over six innings. Cleveland's offense is very inconsistent and are hitting around .225 as a unit. They've gone under in 27 of their 47 contests overall. Now Oakland's bullpen isn't great, but hopefully they won't have to cover a ton of innings. Jefry Rodriguez is coming off a losing effort at home against the O's which is a concern but overall he's allowed 12 runs and 28 hits in just over 31 innings. He's starting to use his offspeed stuff more and it's helping him. Oakland is another lineup that has been up and down. Khris Davis was placed on the IL and he can be one of their better hitters. The Indians bullpen has been pretty good for the most part and has held a bunch of leads with 13 saves in 16 chances. Day game after a "night" game so we may see some bench guys. Give me the under in this one. 

Milwaukee is hosting the Reds on Tuesday. Gio Gonzalez has been a fantastic pickup giving up four runs and 18 hits in four starts with two of those resulting in victories for him. Gio has 15 strikeouts to five walks. Cincy is 4-7 against left-handed starters hitting .235 in those games. They are 10-16 on the road where they are hitting .205. Milwaukee's bullpen has 14 saves in 18 opportunities including eight of 10 at home. Sonny Gray has allowed 10 runs and 15 hits in his last three starts. Gray has not won yet in nine starts for the Reds. He'll face a Milwaukee lineup that is 16-8 at home where they are averaging over five runs per game. Cincy's bullpen has 11 losses and five blown saves. The Brewers are 13-5 in their last 18 games at home in this series. I think this one goes to Milwaukee. 

I can't believe there'd ever be a time when I could fade the Marlins at this good of a price especially on the road. Spencer Turnbull is 2-3 with a 2.40 ERA in nine starts. The righty has 50 strikeouts to just 20 walks. He's allowed just four earned runs over his last three starts. Miami is 4-14 on the road hitting .217 while averaging just 2.2 runs per contest. They are hitting .210 against righties and .219 overall as their lineup is absolutely pathetic. Caleb Smith is putting up some good numbers for the Fish. He's got three of their 13 wins and is striking out a ton of batters. The Tigers have had some success offensive against left-handed starters hitting .273 while averaging over six runs per contest. The last couple of lefties that they've faced were Martin Perez, Wade Miley and Tyler Skaggs. Detroit's offense overall isn't great, but I have a lean to them at home. Miami's bullpen is pretty awful outside of a decent arm or two. Give me the cheap chance to fade the worst team in baseball here.

Reynaldo Lopez is 3-4 with a 5.58 ERA in nine starts for the White Sox. He's coming off a pair of solid outings against the Indians in which he held them to five runs and 11 hits in just over 13 innings of work. Lopez has 53 K's in just 50 innings and is facing a Jays lineup that just doesn't scare you a ton right now. They are 11-22 against right-handed starters hitting just .214 in those games. They have gone under in seven of their last 11. Chicago's bullpen has just two blown saves this season and a 3.72 ERA at home. Trent Thornton has a 3.13 ERA in four road starts with three of those going under. He's pitched well in San Fran and Texas in his last two outings away from home. The White Sox have scored just 10 runs over their last four contests and have gone under in eight of their last 11. Toronto's bullpen is 6-5 with a 2.44 ERA on the road and seven saves in eight chances. I think this one is an under.

I realize the numbers don't look right here, but I'm going to take my chances on the under here. Jerad Eickhoff is 2-2 with a 3.00 ERA in five starts with all five of them going under the total. He had a rough one last time out against the Brewers giving up five runs and eight hits in four innings, but for the most part he's been solid. Colorado continues to be a poor lineup outside of Coors Field. Entering Saturday's contest they were hitting .215 away from home. The Phillies bullpen has 11 saves in 14 opportunities. Kyle Freeland has struggled a bit this season and has ugly numbers, but he's a better pitcher on the road. He's got 30 of his 44 K's outside of Coors. The Phillies are hitting around .210 in day games and still are looking for more consistent bats other then Jean Segura. Bryce Harper is starting to do a little better, but we'll see how the rest of the lineup does. Colorado's bullpen has a sub 2.50 ERA on the road. I think this one is an under. 

Blake Snell is 3-4 with a 3.56 ERA and a WHIP of 0.977 in eight starts this season with four of them going under the total. Snell gave up two runs and four hits in just over five innings to these Yankees last time out at home striking out 12 while walking only two. Snell's pitched alright in his last two starts in the Bronx which came last year holding New York to four runs and seven hits in 10 innings. The Yankee offense just isn't what it's supposed to be right now with all of the injuries. Masahiro Tanaka is 3-3 with a 3.44 ERA in nine starts with five of them going under the total. Tanaka has a 3.03 ERA in five home outings at home. The righty beat the Rays in Tampa last time out holding them to one run and five hits in seven innings. They have gone under in 12 of their 20 day games and could be sitting some players in the day after a night game. I think this one is an under early on.

Frankie Montas is 4-2 with a 2.78 ERA in eight starts with half of them going under the total. The righty has allowed just four earned runs over his last three starts with 16 strikeouts to just three walks. The Tigers have scored just nine runs over their last four games and are struggling to get much going offensively. They are hitting around .213 against right-handed starters going under in 22 of 35 contests. Oakland's bullpen is pretty awful which is a worry, but I think they can do some work against Detroit. Daniel Norris is 2-1 with a 3.42 ERA in five starts for Detroit. He's allowed just six runs and 16 hits over his last three starts. The southpaw is facing an Oakland team that broke out on Thursday as they put up 17 runs. That effort was one less then what they had scored over their previous six games. Detroit's bullpen also isn't great, but maybe we get lucky and Norris covers plenty of innings. To me, I think nine is a little much so give me the under. 

CC Sabathia has allowed four runs and nine hits in three starts at home this season. Last time out he saw these Rays giving up two runs and three hits in five innings of work. The lefty has been rather effective in his older age despite not going deep in ballgames. Sabathia has a career 3.67 ERA and a WHIP of 1.260 in 49 career starts against Tampa. The Rays have gone under in 10 of their 12 games against left-handed starters hitting .226 in those games. The Yankees bullpen is 5-2 with a 3.47 ERA at home with seven saves in eight chances. Ryne Stanek gets the call as the road team does an opener once again. Stanek faced the Yankees back on May 11th giving up one hit in two innings. New York is still without Aaron Judge, Greg Bird, Troy Tulowitzki and Giancarlo Stanton so there's some talent in the lineup, but not enough in my mind. Tampa's bullpen is 5-2 with a 3.32 ERA on the road with eight saves in nine chances. We don't often see a total this high in Tampa games because of how well their pitching is holding up. I'll take my chances on the under here. 

Eric Lauer is 2-4 with a 5.75 ERA in eight starts for San Diego. The southpaw is coming off getting roughed up in Colorado, but before that had two solid outings vs. the Dodgers and Nationals. He's got a 3.43 ERA in four home starts this season. Lauer is facing a Pittsburgh team averaging 2.8 runs against left-handed starters while hitting .227 against them. I just don't think it's that strong of a lineup. San Diego's bullpen is alright with 18 saves in 27 chances. Trevor Williams is 2-0 with a 2.87 ERA in five road starts. He's coming off a great outing holding the Cardinals to one run and nine hits in seven innings. San Diego is hitting .225 at home where they've gone under in 14 of their last 21. Pittsburgh's bullpen is 6-2 with a 3.58 ERA on the road and eight saves in 11 chances. Give me the under in this one. 

Tampa Bay is going with a bullpen day started off by Ryne Stanek who has allowed three runs and nine hits in 15 innings or so. He's got 17 strikeouts to just two walks as well so the first two or three innings are taken care of. The Rays bullpen as a whole is 10-8 with a 3.32 ERA and they have just three blown saves in 16 chances. Miami's offense is so below average it's ridiculous right now. They've scored just eight runs in their last six games and have put up two runs or less nine times in their last 11 contests. Jose Urena is 1-5 with a 4.63 ERA in eight starts. He's not striking enough guys out, but he's also not getting a ton of run support when he is pitching well. I'm not a firm believer in the Rays offense as a whole. They are putting up decent numbers as a unit, but I think I can take a chance here. Miami's bullpen is not great with a 3-10 record and an ERA over five. Still, they've got a couple of decent arms in there so I'll hope they get used here. Give me the under. 

Two teams heading in different directions play in Arizona on Tuesday. The Snakes have lost three of four and six of their last nine games and send Luke Weaver to the mound. Weaver has allowed two runs and six hits over his last two outings and has been pretty good this year. He's 3-1 with a 2.98 ERA in eight starts. Weaver beat the Pirates in Pittsburgh a few weeks ago holding them to one run and six hits in just over six innings. The Pirates have a winning road record but still aren't hitting well and aren't very reliable. Arizona has converted in 13 of their 17 save opportunities. Joe Musgrove has allowed 18 runs and 19 hits over his last three starts. He's starting to walk more guys and has struggled after a fast start. Musgrove took a no decision in a 12-4 loss by the Pirates at home last month. Arizona has a losing record at home, but has the better offense. They are averaging five runs per game. Pittsburgh's bullpen has six losses and seven blown saves. Give me the home team in this one. 

Yusei Kikuchi has figured things out his last two starts giving up two runs and six hits in just over 14 innings. The southpaw had 13 strikeouts and two walks over that span as well. He had a short outing in Oakland in March giving up two runs and four hits in just over four innings. The A's are 5-15 on the road and hitting .206 in their last seven contests. Seattle's bullpen scares me terribly, but maybe they won't have to cover a ton of innings. Michael Fiers is coming off a no-hitter which reduced his ERA to 5.48 on the season. Fiers is 0-2 with a 9.14 ERA in five road starts. Fiers lost to the Mariners overseas back in March giving up five runs and four hits in three innings. The Mariners are averaging over five runs per game, but aren't exactly in the best form. Oakland is tied for the most blown saves with nine. I really don't like a lot about Seattle, but I like fading people off no-hitters especially when they threw a ton of pitches. Give me the home team in this one. 

Aaron Sanchez is 3-3 with a 3.21 ERA in eight starts for Toronto with five of them going under the total. Sanchez has a 1.59 ERA in three home outings although he needs to cut down on the walks. The righty is coming off a home effort where he held the Twins to three runs and six hits in seven innings of work. Sanchez needs to also learn how to go deeper in games and that will come with less walks. The Sox have scored just 15 runs over their last five games with seven of those coming on Saturday. They've scored three runs or less in seven of their last nine. Lucas Giolito is in good form right now having allowed three runs and 10 hits over his last three starts. He's cut down on the walks which has been a big help to him as well. Toronto has scored 28 runs over their last 12 contests so the offense has struggled. Both of these bullpens are a little scary but the offenses are not. I think the under is worth a look here. 

Justin Verlander is 5-1 with a 2.86 ERA in eight starts for Houston. He's allowed just six runs and 11 hits over his last three starts striking out 22 while walking three over that span. That included two outings against the Twins and one in Anaheim against the Angels. Texas is 5-11 on the road and are hitting just .203 over their last seven games. I just don't believe too much in their offense. Verlander faced the Rangers twice in April giving up five runs and nine hits in 11 innings of work. Overall, he's 15-9 with a 3.07 ERA and a WHIP of 1.136 in 29 career outings. I like fading Lance Lynn and eventually that good record will have to change. He's 4-2 with a 5.75 ERA and a WHIP of 1.574. Over his last three starts, Lynn has allowed 14 runs and 22 hits in just over 16 innings of work. Even worse, the righty has 10 walks as well. Houston is smoking hot right now with wins in five of their last six. They've won each of them by two runs or more. The bullpen edge goes to the home team as well. I'll take the runline and hope for a blowout.

The Nats are fade material right now as they continue their road trip to LA against the Dodgers. Pat Corbin has allowed 12 runs and 17 hits in his last three starts and he's one of their better starters. The Dodgers are 15-4 at home where they are averaging over six runs per game and are hitting .282 as a team. Washington's bullpen is now 6-9 with a 6.41 ERA and five saves in 12 chances. No lead is safe with them if they actually get it. Rich Hill is making his third start. He's given up just four earned runs and 12 hits in 10 innings. The southpaw has allowed just two runs and four hits over his last three outings against the Nats. Washington is hitting .219 against left-handed starters and .210 in their last seven contests. The Nats are without Matt Adams, Juan Soto, Ryan Zimmerman and Trea Turner right now. The Dodgers bullpen isn't the best either, but I think it's better then the Washington group. Give me the home team at a reasonable price.

Griffin Canning is making his second start on Tuesday and it's against the light hitting Tigers. Canning gave up three runs and four hits in just over four innings at home against Toronto. He had six strikeouts to just one walk in the outing as well. Detroit is averaging 3.5 runs per game overall and 3.1 runs per contest against righties. The Angels have just one blown save in nine chances. Daniel Norris has allowed five runs and 17 hits in 15 innings as Tigers starter. He's got 15 strikeouts to just four walks as well. The Angels are 4-12 on the road where they are averaging 3.3 runs per contest. They are 2-9 vs. left-handed starters and are averaging 2.9 runs per contest against them. Detroit's bullpen has a rough ERA, but only four losses and six blown saves this season. Neither offense scares me and I think we've got a shot with the number being nine. Give me the under. 

Luis Castillo has been fantastic for the Reds. He's allowed seven runs and 26 hits in just over 43 innings of work. The righty has gone under in six of his seven starts and is usually good for six innings of work. He faced the Giants at home last August and held them to one earned run and six hits in just over six innings. San Fran's lineup for the most part does not scare me. They are hitting .200 in 14 day games with nine of them going under. Cincy's bullpen does scare me, but maybe we get a good effort on Sunday. Jeff Samardzija is 2-1 with a 2.53 ERA in six starts. He's allowed 10 runs and 24 hits in 32 innings of work. The righty is facing a Reds team that has found their bats this series which was finally expected, but the team has gone under in 23 of their 33 contests overall. San Fran's bullpen is pretty good too so I expect this one to be an under on a Sunday afternoon. 

Pardon me if I'm not all of a sudden a believer in Manny Banuelos because he had two starts against the Orioles. The southpaw allowed two runs and 10 hits in just over nine innings of work against them. Boston has scored four runs or more in five straight games as the offense has begun to pick up. The Chicago bullpen doesn't scare me much either as I think Boston can score on them too. Eduardo Rodriguez is 2-2 with a 6.16 ERA in six starts with five overs. On the road he has allowed 16 runs and 23 hits in just over 13 innings of work. Chicago's lineup cooled off a little bit on Friday, but they are putting up good numbers. They are hitting over .300 in night games. Boston's bullpen has some shaky arms. Give me the over in this one.

Sonny Gray continues to look for his first win of the season as the Reds host the Giants. Gray is 0-4 with a 3.34 ERA in six starts. The righty has 36 strikeouts to just eight walks while allowing just one homer all season. Gray is facing a Giants lineup that is averaging 3.2 runs per game on the road and has gone under in 10 of their 15 games outside of San Fran. San Francisco scored just 20 runs over their last six game homestand. The Reds bullpen is 4-2 with a 2.57 ERA at home this season. Tyler Beede is making his first start for the Giants this season. He went 1-1 with a 1.99 ERA in five triple-A starts earlier this season. Beede allowed six runs and 14 hits in 22.2 innings. Cincy has gone under in 23 of their 31 contests and nine of 11 at home. Their offense has more talent then we think, but it's struggled all year long. They are hitting .222 at home and are coming off getting shut out by Noah Syndergaard. San Fran's bullpen is 5-3 with a 3.23 ERA. I think this one is an under. 

This is the classic case of the better road team getting an extra chance to bat against a mediocre pitching staff. Lucas Giolito has allowed 13 runs and 15 hits in just over 18 innings. He's shown flashes of the control issues that have plagued him in the past with nine walks in his last 12 innings pitched. Boston's lineup has been disappointing this year but they are averaging six runs per contest over their last seven. The White Sox bullpen has an ERA of 4.02 and was heavily used in the doubleheader on Wednesday. David Price has made three starts on the road and has a 5.29 ERA in those games. He's putting up good numbers so we may not get a ton from the White Sox. The White Sox are averaging over five runs per game and are hitting .279 against left-handed starters. Boston's bullpen has a 4.44 ERA. I think this one is an over. 

Martin Perez is putting up fantastic numbers as a starter, but pardon me if I'm not a believer. He's gone against the Orioles twice and Toronto before they added some punch to the lineup. The southpaw has been an awful pitcher and I'll bet this over like he is. Houston is 6-1 against left-handed starters hitting .300 against them while averaging five runs per contest. Minnesota's bullpen has some good numbers although they are giving up plenty of runs. Collin McHugh is 3-2 with a 4.78 ERA in six starts. He's allowed 13 runs and 14 hits over his last three starts. McHugh has not seen the Twins since 2016. Minnesota's lineup has been very hot and cold, but the potential is there for an offensive explosion. Houston's bullpen is putting up good numbers. I think these starters though will give up plenty of runs though. Give me the over. 

Aaron Nola has had a rough start to his season although he's coming off a solid start vs. Miami. He held the punchless Marlins to one run and seven hits in just over six innings. The Tigers aren't very good averaging around three runs per game on the road. They are doing even worse in interleague play so I think Nola can do some work here. Daniel Norris gets the call for the Tigers. He's making his third start, first one against anyone not named the White Sox. He's pitched one good start and one bad one so far. Philly is hitting .200 against left-handed starters in six games against them. This lineup is in a bit of a malaise as they struggle to put up runs consistently. Detroit's bullpen has some ugly numbers so hopefully Norris can go a little deeper. I think this one is an under on Wednesday. 

Rick Porcello has been pretty bad for the Red Sox this season. The righty is 1-3 with a 7.43 ERA and a WHIP of 2.130. He's allowed 24 runs and 34 hits in 23 innings with 15 walks and just 20 strikeouts. Almost a year ago Porcello gave up five runs and nine hits at home to the A's. Oakland is averaging almost six runs per game on the road where they've gone over in 10 of 15. Boston's bullpen has an ERA over five at home. Aaron Brooks is 2-2 with a 5.33 ERA in five starts. He's got decent stuff, but he's allowed 11 runs and 15 hits over his last three starts. Brooks faced the Red Sox on April 1st in Oakland holding them to two hits and a walk in six innings. Boston's lineup has scored seven runs or more in three of their last five. Oakland's bullpen also has it's shaky arms. I think this one is a slugfest in Boston.

It's an opener day for the Rays who will be using their bullpen for Monday's contest against the Royals. Ryan Stanek just faced them and will start things off. Tampa's bullpen as a whole is 6-7 with a 3.84 ERA on the year. Kansas City has gone over in 11 of their 15 home games where they hit .261 with 5.2 runs per contest. The Royals should be able to hold their own in this one offensively. Brad Keller is facing the Rays for the second straight game. He gave up five runs and seven hits in just over six innings in that one. Tampa Bay is hitting .278 away from home while averaging nearly six runs per contest. The Royals bullpen has blown eight of 12 save chances and is 3-8 with a 5.23 ERA overall. These two played two overs in Tampa Bay last week and that's hard to do in that building. I think this one is an over too. 

As i've mentioned, I don't really have a ton of systems when I make my plays. One thing I really believe in is fading pitchers coming off the injury report for their first start. It's one thing to do rehab outings, but it's another to ramp up against live pitching. Hill made one rehab start about 10 days ago where he struck out eight over four innings in advanced A ball. The Pirates lineup isn't still great, but they are 4-3 against left-handed starters. Hill is expected to go six innings and turn to a bullpen that's very inconsistent. Trevor Williams has a 1.67 ERA in his last 18 starts. He has had five quality starts this season. LA's lineup is very good although they've had a little bit of a struggle scoring runs. The numbers tell you to back the Dodgers, but I'll hope that Hill is rusty and Williams keeps up his good work. 

Texas saw the end of their five game losing streak on Saturday when the offense blew out versus Mike Leake and Seattle. They had struggled to score over this losing skid and weren't getting good pitching either. One of those who got rocked was Lance Lynn who goes in this one. Lynn is 3-2 with a 6.51 ERA in five starts. He's given up 20 runs and 35 hits in just over 27 innings of work. Lynn is facing one of the better offenses in baseball right now and I think they can get to him and the mediocre bullpen behind him. We don't know too much about Erik Swanson other then he had one good outing and one bad one. At home he held the Indians to one run and two hits in six innings, but lost in San Diego when he allowed two homers in six innings. I'm not a huge believer in Texas' lineup so I think they can struggle in this one. Give me the home team to bounce back on Sunday. 

Colorado has won four of five and nine of their last 11 games entering Saturday's contest in Atlanta. Jon Gray has allowed two runs and nine hits in his last three starts against the Phillies, Padres and Giants. Gray pitches better away from Coors Field. The starter is 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA in five starts against the Braves. One of his worst came last year and he only allowed three runs and five hits over seven innings in that one. Atlanta has lost seven of their last 10 games and is sending Mike Foltynewicz to the mound for the first time this season. He was dealing with bone spurs during the spring and gets the call in this one. Folty had a rough rehab assignment giving up 12 runs and 17 hits in 17.2 innings of work. The righty walked nine over that span and is still trying to get his work in. I like the Rockies offense right now as they have been very hot as of late. Also, Atlanta's middle relievers are not that good. One of my systems is to fade a guy coming off the IL to make his first start so give me the Rockies.