Miami is feeling good after picking up a sloppy 16-12 road win at Pittsburgh. The Hurricanes have won four of their last six despite struggling to score. This team has put up 21 or less in three straight and four of their last five. The defense is still having problems slowing down the run. They've actually been very good against the pass though. FSU is coming off crushing my Orange 35-17 extending their streak to five straight unders. I like their defense and the offense looked competent as well. I'm not ready to buy them playing like that consistently though. I think it was more a product of their opponent then suddenly figuring things out. Miami has gone under in 22 of their last 32 games while the Noles have gone under in five of their eight tilts this year alone. To me, this one is an under.

Stony Brook is ranked in the FCS top 25 poll right now after winning in Villanova 36-35. The Sea Wolves were down 28-10 at halftime, but Tyquell Fields brought them back as well as Ty Son Lawton. This team also took JMU to overtime falling 45-38 at home at the beginning of October. Stony Brook won at Rhode Island 31-27 and beat Fordham 45-10. Their offense isn't in question and their defense isn't infallible. The Spiders offense is clicking right now after scoring 35 at Delaware and 27 at home against Yale. Joe Mancuso has several solid weapons at wide receiver and a defense that can be beaten as well. Richmond at home has played games with scores of 38-19, 42-20, 23-20 and 28-27. To me, this one should be another shootout.

The Lions have lost three straight since a 2-0-1 start to the season. Detroit's offense hasn't been the issue scoring 27 points or more four times this season. They aren't running it well and will be without Kerryon Johnson meaning we'll get a dose of Ty Johnson and JD McKissic. Detroit's defense is getting gashed by the run the last few weeks and will be without Darius Slay as well as Quandre Diggs who got dealt to Seattle. One has to wonder how much of an effect it will be on the unit. New York has lost their last three games as the defense continues to be really leaky. They've allowed 27 or more in all but one game which was anemic Washington. Daniel Jones won't have Sterling Shepard, but Golden Tate is there and Saquon Barkley will be another week healthier. I think these two should score some points.

The Jaguars snapped a two game losing streak last time out beating Cincinnati 27-17. Jacksonville was able to run it and throw it really well against the tanking Bengals. Also, the defense played really well, but consider the competition. Jacksonville's hard to get a read on. They lose to the Chiefs and Texans, but then they won two straight before struggling against Carolina and New Orleans. The Jets are coming off an embarrassing Monday Night Football game against the Patriots, but remember before that they beat the Cowboys at home. Sam Darnold won't be that awful again and will be able to do some work against this defense without Jalen Ramsey. The Jets have been very hard to run on and have had some success against the pass despite being a hideous secondary. The Jags have covered just nine of their last 21 games as a favorite. I think New York can keep things interesting here. 

The Eagles have dealt with a ton of crap lately on and off the field. They were smoked by their rival Dallas last week and are playing their third straight on the road. This defense has been embarrassed the last two weeks, but the Vikings and Cowboys are way better on offense then Buffalo is. Philly's offense is not doing much either during this road stretch scoring 20 against Minnesota and 10 against the Cowboys. Without DeSean Jackson there just aren't enough weapons for Carson Wentz. Buffalo's offense has scored 21 points or less four times. They can't run it particularly well and Josh Allen is making mistakes and doesn't throw it long well. Buffalo's defense has allowed 21 points or less in every game and that includes stifling the Pats to just 16 points. They should be able to get in the backfield against Philly. The under has hit in five of six Buffalo games. This one could be tight on Sunday. 

The Colts are 4-2 while Denver is 2-5. The Broncos have gone under in five of their seven because of their awful offense and stifling defense. Denver has scored 20 or less in three straight and six of seven overall. Joe Flacco is stale and they dealt Emmanuel Sanders. On the defensive side, this team has held all but two teams to under 100 rushing yards. No one has had success throwing it on them and as long as Chris Harris is there then things could be tough for T.Y. Hilton. Indy is coming off an emotional home win over the Texans last week, but their defense has been pretty good. The weakness is against the pass and Denver just can't do anything about that. Indy's not getting enough from the run and Jacoby Brissett won't find things to be that easy. I know we're hovering around and below the key number of 42 so that sucks, but I think this smells like a 21-10 contest.

The Owls are a great underdog and for some reason continue to be underrated by the oddsmakers. Already this season, they've covered as a home dog against Maryland and Memphis winning both games outright. I think some of the shine came off after their loss against SMU last week in which they gave up over 400 yards through the air. Still, this offense is capable of doing good things and controlling the clock a bit. They've run for 150 yards or more five times already this season. The defense, for the most part has been fantastic holding the Terps to 17 points back in week 3. UCF is 5-2 and you can notice that in their two losses, they were out-physicaled and got punched in the mouth a bit. This will be their fourth road game and they are 1-2 so far away from home. We know how good their offense is, but their defense is very vulnerable. The Golden Knights have dominated this series as of late although last year they only won 52-40 against the Owls at home in a game that saw Temple go punch for punch with them. I'll take the home team in this one.

Kansas has an offense now as they made a change at coordinator and is going a lot faster. They put up 48 points on Texas last week on the road and they had 86 plays in the loss to the Longhorns. Pooka Williams really benefits in this new system. Texas Tech's defense has allowed 28 or more in five straight games. You can throw on them and they've allowed 28, 55 and 33 on the road this year. Jett Duffey has replaced Alan Bowman pretty well so far as this team has put up 45, 30 and 24 in their last three games. The Red Raiders are showing some solid balance on offense and should be able to get what they want against a Jayhawks team with some key injuries on defense. In KU's first conference game they gave up 29 to West Virginia then allowed 51, 45 and 50 in the next three contests. The last two years this game saw scores 48-16 and 65-19. I missed the early number here, but I still think the over is in play and I think there's a shot KU gets the win as well.

South Carolina and Tennessee play on Saturday in a game important for bowl eligibility. The Gamecocks are 3-4 and are coming off a 38-27 loss at home to Florida. South Carolina's offense has been underwhelming for the most part scoring 24 points or less five times with one of the non contests being against Charleston Southern. The defense has sprung some leaks against the run, but has been good against the pass. Tennessee's offense is also anemic as of late. They've scored just 50 points the last four weeks against SEC competition. They have a terrible group of quarterbacks which affects the running game. The defense has done some solid work against the lesser offenses they've faced. They held Mississippi State to 10 points in Rocky Top a few weeks ago. USC has gone under in eight of their last 11 road games. Tennessee has gone under in 11 of their last 20 SEC games. Give me the under in this one.

ECU interests me a ton in this matchup. USF's offense is just not working under their new coordinator from Valdosta State. Even worse right now, they are deciding between a healthy walk-on and a backup quarterback who has shoulder and arm issues right now and can barely throw. USF is 3-4 on the year with the wins coming over South Carolina State, UConn and BYU. Problem is that when the offense doesn't work, it really doesn't work. This squad still hasn't fixed their issues on defense either. You can certainly run on them with five teams putting up 180 or more against them. ECU showed me something in the 2nd half vs. UCF last week. They were blown out in the first half, but made things a little interesting after halftime. They've got some decent quarterback play and can control the clock with their run game. I love the Mike Houston hire as he knows offense. USF is 7-12 against the spread the last three years as a favorite. I really question the motivation of the road team right now with an awful coach like Charlie Strong. Give me the home dog here.

Buffalo turns to Kyle VanTrease under center after Matt Myers was announced to be out for the year. He had an awful game last week against Akron, but it didn't matter throwing for just 65 yards. His backup is a true freshman and the third stringer is a wide receiver who is also holding field goals. This offense wants to succeed by running it with Marks and Patterson. CMU has won three straight and can be beaten on the ground, but they are pretty stout in the back end. The question is if UB can slow down a Chips offense that is smoking hot right now. They've scored 122 points during this win streak as Quinten Dormady and Jonathan Ward lead the way. Buffalo's defense has been vulnerable against the pass when stressed. They've put up good numbers as of late but Ohio, Miami (Ohio) and Akron don't throw it well. I think the road team is a live dog here. Remember, CMU nearly won at Miami.

The Golden Flashes offense doesn't suck as much as it has in the past. Woody Crum is doing great things for them as they have three wins on the year. Heck last week they lost 45-38 to Ohio putting up nearly 500 yards of offense. The team has won both their home games this season beating a good Kennesaw State team in OT and crushing Bowling Green 62-20. Their defense is still awful so that's a concern, but Miami is anemic. They've scored 20 points or less four times this year and have done their best work at home where they beat Tennessee Tech, Buffalo and NIU. They can't really run it well and struggle on defense a ton. KSU has been a favorite three times already this season which is half of their total over the last three seasons. I think they win this game outright so give me the lean moneyline.

It's a pair of triple option teams playing each other as Navy hosts Tulane. Tulane held Army to just 363 yards of offense in a 42-33 win just a few weeks ago and Willie Fritz is very familiar with the Naval Academy's offense and how they want to run it. Tulane's going off the 47-17 loss to Memphis so we know they'll be focused and angry here as well. Last year they held Navy to just 321 yards of total offense. Two years ago Navy managed just 23 points. On the other side you've got a Midshipmen team that's got an improved defense. They don't get beat often by the run with USF's 150 yards being the most allowed all season. Now they haven't been tested through the air as much as they could be here, but I still think their secondary will hold up. It'll be interesting to see if Darius Bradwell or Corey Dauphine will be available as both were limited this week and that's the bulk of the running game. Tulane has gone under in 18 of their last 31 lined games while Navy has gone under in 17 of their last 32. I think this one is an under and I'll hesitantly go against the move to the over.

A pair of 3-4 teams take the field as Florida State hosts Syracuse. These two teams are awfully similar in that their offenses have been spotty while the defenses have had to be the brunt of the opposition being constantly on the field. Tommy DeVito is not the answer for the Orange as they have lost four of their last six games. The offense has scored 25 points or less five times already this year as a bad offensive line and inconsistent skill players have doomed them. The defense was supposed to be the strength of the team, but the secondary has been ravaged by injuries. On the other side, you've got an FSU team that is going between two quarterbacks although it seems like James Blackman will get the call here. Cam Akers is a fantastic running back for the home team. Their defense has had some troubles this season although most of them have come against Boise and Clemson. Syracuse has gone under in 19 of their last 31 lined games while FSU has gone under in 13 of their last 21 ACC contests. This total seems a little too high for me.

This one could see plenty of points on Saturday. Elon is coming off a bye week after an impressive 42-7 win at home against Delaware. This team has been a mixed bag offensively as they've struggled against the better defenses they've faced putting up 10 on JMU and New Hampshire and 7 on Wake Forest. Going back even farther the team started out with 21, 35 and 42 over their first three weeks. Davis Cheek is an impressive signal caller for the Phoenix. Rhode Island is 1-6, but they are a fun 1-6. Their scores this season are 41-20, 44-36, 27-24, 31-27, 31-28, 34-17 and 35-28. The Rams have a fantastic offense with Vito Priore under center and Aaron Parker out wide. This team's offense should be able to move in this one but I don't know if they can stop the Phoenix. This one seems like it should be a shootout on Saturday.

Liberty has won five in a row since an 0-2 start to the year and a lot of that is because of this offense and a relatively easy schedule. Last week I had an easy winner with the over in their game against Maine as both teams went over by themselves. Buckshot Calvert and Antonio Gandy-Golden are a potent duo and the Flames have a solid run game to offset that as well. Liberty's defense hasn't been tested that much so far and they've allowed 24 to Syracuse and 35 to ULL. Rutgers offense is awful. They've scored 30 points over their last six games with all of those coming against power five schools. The Scarlet Knights have thrown for 49 yards the last two weeks. Way back in week one, they played the lesser UMass Minutemen and won 48-21. Rutgers defense hasn't been very good and will probably continue to struggle on Saturday. The thing is, I think they can find the end zone as well. Give me the over in this one.

The Cavaliers are going to be one of the worst teams in the league and it's going to show on the defensive side of the ball. This is a team that allowed 109, 118 and 118 in their three preseason games against NBA teams. They did beat San Lorenzo 120-89, but this is a squad that may have a rookie point guard and just doesn't have a ton of talent. There is some hype for the Magic this year as they could be a playoff team. They went 3-3 in the preseason showing a propensity to score at times, but also be terrible on defense. The last three contests they allowed 100, 126 and 107 points. Last year these two played scores of 102-100, 107-93 and 120-91. I think the over hits in this one.

I'm buying the Chargers at this price on Sunday. LA is 2-4 on the year with the wins coming over the Colts at home and Dolphins on the road. Their four losses are all by seven points or less. This team needs to get their run game going a bit and it should be better with Melvin Gordon continuing to shake off the rust. Philip Rivers probably needs to throw the ball a little less to give more balance. The defense has been awesome against the pass as of late and has been a mixed bag against the run. Being on the road won't bother them that much either. Go figure Tennessee who is also 2-4 on the year. Their wins were at Cleveland and at Atlanta. This team has lost by two at home to Indy and by seven at home against Buffalo. The offense has been so bad that they turned to Ryan Tannehill to start this one. The run game hasn't worked a ton and they've thrown for less then 250 yards in every game. The Titans defense continues to be very good which is a concern. Last year LA won this game 20-19 at home as a seven point favorite. The Titans were able to ground and pound and that helped with the TOP advantage. LA is 13-5-2 the last three years against the spread on the road.

The Texans are 4-2 this season and have been playing a ton of tough games so far this season. They are coming off a 31-24 win at Kansas City in which they held down the potent Chiefs offense. The team already has a win in LA against the Chargers and a close loss to the Saints back in week one. We know how good Deshaun Watson is and this defense continues to be locked in especially against the run. On the other side, it's the Colts who are 3-2 and coming off a bye week. They also are coming off a road win at KC two weeks ago in which they also did some good work against the Chiefs. Indy has the edge up front with a very underrated offensive line and Jacoby Brissett has done a lot too. The Colts are getting healthy with Darius Leonard improving and available. They have a solid group of corners that can help as well. Indy won two of the three matchups last year with victories of 21-7 and 24-21 in Houston. The key was a solid run game and a passing attack that got the job done. I think the home team is very live in this one.

The Jags want to get back on track in this one after losing two straight. Jacksonville is 2-4 with three overs this season. They put up 26 in Denver and 27 in Carolina and Gardner Minshew should be able to get whatever he wants. The defense played well against New Orleans, but I wonder if the third road game in four weeks tires this team out a little bit. You can throw on them and some teams have run on them as well. Cincy is 0-6, but their offense has shown some pulses. They put up 23 on Arizona at home and 17 on the stout 49ers. They can't run it so a lot more is being put on Andy Dalton's plate. Cincy has gone over in both of their home games this season. The Bengals offense could find some success and their defense should allow Jax to do whatever they want.

Texas is coming off the loss to rival Oklahoma and should be rather ornery for this one. Kansas has lost 51-14 and 45-20 in their last two games in conference play. During the bye week the team picked up a new offensive coordinator that wants to go fast. Reading the press clippings, it seems like the Jayhawks like the new energy and should be able to do something. Even if they don't, at least their possessions will go faster giving Texas the ball more. This is a Longhorns defense that has allowed 30 points or more four times this season. Good thing for them is that their offense has scored 30 or more five times. Sam Ehlinger should be able to get whatever he wants through the air. Kansas has allowed 51 and 45 in their last two conference games letting TCU and Oklahoma do whatever they want. These two played a 42-27 game in Texas two years ago. Give me the over in this one.  

Maine was ranked in the top 25 for a lot of the season, but it's been a rough year for the Black Bears. They are coming off a 24-17 home loss to Richmond in which their starting quarterback got hurt and the star wide receiver was already out. Before that, they lost 33-17 to Villanova. The team's wins were over Colgate 35-21 and Sacred Heart 42-14. It's their second FBS opponent of the year after falling 26-18 to Georgia Southern back on September 7th. Liberty has won four straight since a two game losing streak to start the year. The offense hasn't clicked lately so maybe they'll figure some things out during the bye week as Hugh Freeze gets his fingers into this side of the ball. The defense can be exploited but New Mexico and New Mexico State weren't good enough to do it. The Flames gave up 27 to Hampton in a 62-27 win over an FCS opponent back in September. I think this one should go over the lower total. 

 Missouri has been steamrolling opponents since losing to Wyoming on the road in week one. They have allowed just 58 points over their last five, but part of that is level of competition and the other thing is that all of those games were at home. This is a road game here that will feel like a home game as Vandy never draws. Missouri's offense is the one to worry about here because this feels like a name your score situation. They've got a road trip to Kentucky next so maybe they slack off towards the end, but probably not. Vandy has scored just 16 points the last two weeks against Ole Miss and UNLV. Somehow the Commodores gave up 34 points to the Runnin Rebels. The good thing is that outside of the running back Vaughn, this team has no offensive identity. They can't throw it at all with Riley Neal competing for the job. Vandy has gone under in 12 of their last 18 games including three of four this year. I think that trend continues here.

William and Mary faces their second straight top five opponent as they host James Madison for homecoming after a bye week. The Tribe have scored at least 30 points in three of their four games against FCS opponents with them putting up 28 on a very good Villanova D two weeks ago. Kilton Anderson has worked well in this new go go offense that the Tribe are running and it looks like Hollis Mathis could be available as well. The WM defense has had it's issues against the better offenses giving up 35 to Nova, 39 to Albany and 52 to UVA. JMU is averaging 40.7 points per game and are averaging over 250 yards rushing. They want to go up-tempo too with their spread attack. The Dukes have put up 45, 45 and 38 in their last three conference games. The defense has been very good too although Stony Brook scored 38 while Nova put up 24. To me, the over in JMU games are almost insta-bets right now as the offense keeps rolling.

Oregon is allowing just over eight points per game this year and clamps down on both the run and the pass. Since giving up 27 to Auburn in week one, the Ducks have allowed 25 points over their next five contests. Granted, this is going to be one of their biggest tests of the season offensively, but Washington's offense has struggled at times too. They broke out against Arizona last time out putting up 51, but the previous two games saw them score 41 combined. Jacob Eason hasn't worked out as well as they had thought so far. Washington's defense has held five of their seven opponents to 20 points or less. Oregon's offense runs a lot of short passes which will be hindered by the loss of Jacob Breeland who is done for the season. The Ducks have gone under in 19 of their last 31 lined games including nine of their last 11 on the road. Washington has gone under in 20 of their last 34 games. Give me the under here.

The Bison are 6-0 this season and have wins with margins of 47, 31, 25, 11, 34 and 32. This is the Trees Bowl game against 1-4 Missouri State. Now there's a worry that the team will be looking ahead to the rivalry game at South Dakota State, but the Bison are just so good. They've scored less then 30 just once and have allowed more then 20 just once. Missouri State has losses of 14, 52, 11 and 35 with the one loss coming in triple overtime against Western Illinois. The Bears last time out gave up 24 points in the span of four mins in their loss to South Dakota. They had an early 7-0 lead before giving up 45 straight. Missouri State is also one of eight FCS teams to have just one win in the last calendar year. Only two teams rank behind them in third down conversions and they are 112th in rushing yards allowed. I think even giving a B level effort will give the Bison a really easy win. 

So I've been trying to fade Wyoming whenever I can and I'll try doing it again here with New Mexico. The Lobos are 2-4 and have been a mixed bag on both sides of the ball. They scored 39 on Sam Houston State and 55 on New Mexico State, but have also scuffled at Notre Dame and at Liberty. The one thing this defense does well is stop the run for the most part. I'm guessing a lot of that has to do with the fact that they've allowed over 300 yards passing to everyone. I don't know if Wyoming can take advantage of that considering 214 passing yards is their season high on 32 attempts. They want to run the ball early and often. This team is 4-2 against the spread failing to cover against Idaho and San Diego State. They are good against the run which is a bit of a concern. Wyoming has spanked New Mexico the last two years. Foolish or not, I'm going to keep trying to fade the Cowboys when I can.

There are a lot of question marks in this game on both teams. UCLA doesn't know who their starting QB will be with Dorian Thompson-Robinson questionable. If he does not play, then Austin Burton is under center and he was not very good against Oregon State. UCLA's offensive line has allowed 15 sacks this season. The Bruins have had four games scoring under 20 points with two other games where they scored 98. Theo Howard departed the team and that's a big hit for them. UCLA's defense isn't great, but I don't think Stanford can take advantage of it. KJ Costello is out, Davis Mills is questionable and Jack West is the third string QB. Cameron Scarlett figures to be busy against UCLA who is allowing over 160 yards per game on the ground. Stanford also has only six healthy offensive linemen. The Cardinal's defense has allowed 28 or more three times and 21 or less three other times. They had an impressive 23-13 win over Washington last time out. Stanford has gone under in 12 of their last 21 games as a favorite. I think this game is an under on Friday too. 

The Steelers are on their third quarterback of the season with Devlin Hodges under center for this one. Pittsburgh's offense has not gotten much on the ground from James Conner which has put more pressure on the passing game. Pittsburgh's defense has been good the last few weeks against the Bengals and Ravens. They put constant pressure on the QB and have an improved secondary with Minkah Fitzpatrick. The Chargers are 2-3 and are coming off a 20-13 loss to the Broncos in which they got nothing from the ground. This team's devoid of true offensive weapons it seems outside of Ekeler and Allen at wide receiver. We'll see if Melvin Gordon is less rusty this week because that would help. San Diego's defense has given up 20 points or less in three of their five games. Pittsburgh has gone under in 14 of their last 17 road games. LA has gone under in 25 of their last 39 including 12 of their last 18 at home. I think this one is a tightly played game. 

Go figure Tennessee as they enter this one 2-3 on the season. The offense has scored 43 and 24 in their two wins over the Browns and Falcons on the road, but have scored 17, 7 and 7 in their three losses. If you bottle up Derrick Henry, then Marcus Mariota struggles with his lack of weapons. This defense has been fantastic against the rush and has had some success against the pass as well. Denver is feeling good after their first win of the season. They should probably have two more wins after they got hosed against the Bears in week two on an awful roughing penalty. They also coughed up a lead against Jacksonville late. Lindsey and Freeman are a solid duo in the backfield and Joe Flacco has been efficient when called upon. Denver's secondary is lockdown and they've played the run pretty well as of late. I'll back the home team's moneyline in this one BUT I've also been awful in Tennessee games. I just can't figure them out. 

I wrote a really long preview on this game for Athlon Sports. The long and short of it is that I just don't love the Niners on a short week against a team that will take the run away from them. San Fran doesn't want to get into a shootout and I just don't know how well they'll run it without their two starting tackles AND their fullback. Todd Gurley being out is a concern, but this team is used to playing without him. Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson are not bad backups if Gurley is limited. The Rams have had 10 days to stew after their loss to the Seahawks in which they should have won due to a missed field goal. I think LA shows everyone how good they are in this game and gives the Niners their first loss of the season. 

Baltimore is coming off a physical win over the Steelers last week and have a road trip to Seattle up next so maybe focus is an issue. The Ravens offense has scored 23 or more in every game and has been able to get Lamar Jackson going. The issue with the home team is their defense which has allowed 33, 40 and 23 the last three weeks. Baltimore's secondary is a banged up bunch and I think there's a chance that Cincy can take advantage of it. The Bengals are 0-5 this season, but have shown some pulses of offense from time to time. They scored 20 in Seattle and 23 last week against Arizona. Andy Dalton lost John Ross and AJ Green so that's a concern, but Auden Tate is a decent option. Cincy's defense is horrendous for the most part. They've given up over 170 rushing yards from three teams. The over has been a good play in Baltimore games. I think this one could see a bunch of points.

Wyoming is coming off their bye week so it's time to fade them once again on Saturday. They beat Missouri in week one despite getting out-gained by a ton. After that they should have lost to Texas State who out-gained them but a pick six gave them the win and cover. The Cowboys barely beat Idaho who is a horrendous FCS school then lost at Tulsa by three. They demolished a bad UNLV team which was huge for them. This team doesn't throw it well and struggles to move the ball when forced to be one dimensional. They've clamped down on the run, but none of their early opponents were good at it. San Diego State is 4-1 and is well known for the 6-0 win in week one against Weber State. The Aztecs offense is nothing great either because they just can't run it very well. This team's defense doesn't allow anyone to run it having allowed 35, 62, 30, 82 and 18 rush yards. You can beat them a bit through the air, but I don't think Chambers can do so. A concern is that this team is a terrible home favorite against the spread, but I think they are just that much better then the Cowboys. 

This has been a high scoring series between Navy and Tulsa. Last year the Middies won 37-29 in a game that saw them rack up 389 yards. They've been able to run on the Golden Hurricane the past few years with 421 in 2017 and 390 in 2016. Both teams could be hung over for this one after Tulsa let a huge one slip last week at SMU falling 43-37. The Golden Hurricane could struggle to run it, but I think they'll be able to throw on Navy. The Midshipmen's triple option is humming right now despite having a youngish offense. The defense hasn't been tested that much although Memphis did put up 35 on them. Both teams trend to the under, but I think this one sees a bunch of points on Saturday night.

Kentucky's offense has been anemic especially considering all the injuries at quarterback. Terry Wilson is done for the year and Sawyer Smith is dealing with all sorts of ailments even after a bye week. The Wildcats have scored just 41 points the last three weeks against SEC opponents. They have a decent run game but are facing more crowded boxes. UK's defense has struggled the last two games against the run, but I like their defense as a whole especially at home. Arkansas is 2-3 with wins over Portland State and Colorado State and losses to Ole Miss, San Jose State and Texas A&M. Their offense can put up some good numbers, but they've also been home for the most part. The defense has actually been pretty good against the pass outside of the SJ State game. These two teams have trends that point to the under. With a total this high and an offense so inconsistent at home, I'll take a shot on the under.

This is a spot play as we have a classic sandwich involving Virginia Tech. The Hokies were dead and buried entering last week, but they played a wild game against Miami picking up a win. They cashed in a bunch of turnovers, but then choked the lead away before a late score. I'm still not a huge Hendon Hooker fan and wonder what kind of gameplan they call with North Carolina on deck. That's a lot bigger game for them then this one. Of course, Virginia Tech is dying for wins, but that doesn't matter in the spread. Rhode Island is 1-4 but three of the losses were by 12 points against Delaware, New Hampshire and Stony Brook. This team lost 41-20 early on against Ohio so they have a little FBS experience. It's a spread style of offense with receivers taking direct snaps. They've forced 10 takeaways defensively, but are bad against the run. Aaron Parker is a really good URI receiver and he's got good chemistry with Vito Priore. I'll take a shot on the spot here and hope we get a sleepy Tech effort much like the one they had against Furman.

The Cougars have had two weeks to prepare for a Cincy team coming off a huge win over divisional rival UCF. Houston was awesome two weeks ago in North Texas proving that life post D'Eriq King may not be as awful as people think. Clayton Tune played well in place of King and got some extra time to add more wrinkles to Dana Holgorsen's offense. The Coogs also have had a chance to rest after a fast and furious start to the season that saw a bunch of games packed in early. Cincy's win last week over UCF was because of the Golden Knights' struggles in the red zone. Cincy's defense has had some success this season, but against some lesser offenses. Their offense could struggle to get Michael Warren going. Houston's run defense has had three good games and two awful ones, but those were Oklahoma and Tulane. Houston has covered eight of their last 13 home games. I think they are a live dog in this one. 

New year, but same old NIU as the team continues to struggle on offense and plays good enough defense. Last week was the perfect example as they lost 27-20 to Ball State in a contest that saw them hold the Cardinals to less then 300 yards of offense, but struggle to do much after a fast start. It's hard to figure out this Huskies team as they beat an FCS team then lost three straight to power five schools. This is their fourth road game over the last five and that could be a factor. Ohio's 2-3 and that's a real surprise considering how we all practically handed them the MAC East before the season. This team's offense is not clicking through the air and the defense is really inconsistent. Part of these numbers are because of the level of competition. Giving up almost 300 rushing yards to ULL is to be expected considering how well they run it. These two played a 24-21 game last year. NIU has gone under in 19 of their last 32 including 11 of their last 14 when the total is between 49.5 and 56. When the total is this high in an NIU game, I like to jump on the under. 

Marshall is a disappointing 2-3 so far this season and one can point to their offense being a let down the last two games and the defense struggling from time to time as well. Somehow last week they racked up nearly 600 yards of offense, but only scored 13 points. They've put up 14 points or less three times this season as things just haven't been consistent. On defense, they were thrashed by Cincinnati and Ohio, but were able to hold their own against some of the other teams on their schedule. ODU has gone under in every game and it's because of a non-existent run game, an inconsistent passing game and a defense that's played better then we thought. The Monarchs have scored 82 points in five contests so far and have held three opponents to 24 or less. They are pretty stout against the run and have played the pass pretty well as well. Marshall has gone under in 10 of their last 17 C-USA games. Give me the under here. 

Ball State has to be feeling good about themselves after getting their first win over Northern Illinois in a long time last week. This team is playing their third straight road game with a bye mixed in there. They ran it 60 times last week to just 14 passes, but I don't see that radical a split in plays this week. Ball State's defense is exploitable depending upon how you want to attack it. NC State had 204 rushing yards while Indiana and FAU had over 300 yards passing. EMU is 3-2 and is coming off a really tough 42-16 loss last week in Central Michigan. This is their second home game of the season and I think that'll be big for this team. The Glass kid at quarterback is very solid and has performed well despite the run game being of no help. EMU's defense had a poor effort last week against the Chippewas. I expect something better from them at home. This team has covered 18 of their last 30 overall. I think the home team bounces back. 

I think this line is rather crazy considering these two teams. Yes, Memphis is 5-0 putting up awesome numbers on offense, but they've also put them up against garbage defenses. Brady White's really good under center and it'll be interesting to see if Patrick Taylor Jr will play in the backfield. Memphis has very good defensive numbers, but they did allow nearly 600 yards of offense to UL-Monroe last week. Temple is an unfocused effort against Buffalo away from being 5-0 themselves. The Owls shut down a potent Maryland offense holding them to 17 points. They've given up just 86 points and have a very good secondary and a pass rush that could stress the Tigers. Temple's 18-13 against the spread in their last 31 games and have covered all three games at home. Memphis is only 7-6 against the spread the last three years on the road. I just think Temple can keep up here if there is a shootout but could also get stops when needed as well. Give me the home dog.

Colorado is putting up very good numbers on offense, but the injuries continue to come for the Buffs. Right now Laviska Shenault Jr and K.D. Nixon are dealing with ailments and may not be available for this one. Colorado's rushing attack has not approached the effort it put up in week one against Colorado State although it's getting better. The problems for them are on defense where they've allowed 30 points or more in every game. Oregon's D doesn't mess around as they've allowed 22 points the last four weeks against Nevada, Montana, Stanford and Cal. They clamp down on the opposition's run game and have been very difficult to throw on. Oregon's offense has exploded just once against an FBS opponent when they put up 77 on Nevada after the loss to Auburn. Feels like they've gone through the motions a little bit and Verdell the running back is a little banged up but will play. Up next is a road trip to Washington so they may not show a ton of new stuff either? Colorado has gone under in 13 of their last 15 games as an underdog and 15 of their last 29 overall. The Ducks have gone under in 18 of their last 30 including three of four this season. Give me the under in this one.

 It's Sun Belt action on a Thursday as Texas State hosts Louisiana Monroe. I can't believe I'm getting involved in another Bobcats game, but here we are. Texas State has won two straight since a three game losing streak to start out the year. The offense has started to perk up a bit scoring 37 against Georgia State and 24 against Nicholls State. Now with some extra time off, Jake Spavital can add a little more to the playbook and put Gresh Jensen in a good place to succeed. ULM's defense is nothing special allowing 45 to FSU, 72 to Iowa State and 52 to Memphis. Even in their 30-17 win over South Alabama, the Warhawks allowed almost 400 yards of offense. The good thing for them is that this offense is smoking right now. Caleb Evans is a very good quarterback who runs this RPO system extremely well. They've scored 20 or more in every contest. The concern here is that this team is playing five days after losing 52-33 at home to Memphis. I think we could see a boatload of points here with potentially the home underdog getting the win.

This seems like a great time to back the Cowboys. Dallas is coming off a terrible 12-10 loss where they ran for only 45 yards against the Saints in New Orleans. The Cowboys defense was very strong in the loss as they have been all season long. Yes, they've put up great numbers against the garbage Giants, Redskins and Cowboys, but I see people jumping off the bandwagon here because it's Aaron Rodgers. You can run on the Packers defense so expect Ezekiel Elliott to be fed early and often. The Eagles ran it 33 times which is not their forte and they put up 176 yards. GB's offense threw it 53 times and ran it 20 and that lack of balance won't work against Dallas. Davante Adams is out for the Packers and that means it'll be a really young wide receiver group going up against a really stout secondary. The money is coming in on the road team because of ARod's past few games in Dallas where he's went in and won. This year's offense isn't as potent as those and the Cowboys defense should be able to hold GB down. Give me the home team in this one. 

The Patriots are coming off a rare poor effort offensively and will want to flex their muscles against the lowly Redskins. New England beat Buffalo 16-10 managing under 230 yards of offense total in that one. The defense has been incredible so far and that will most likely continue, but I really think Tom Brady and the boys want to get all the kinks out. They've scored 33, 43 and 30 in their other three contests. It's a bit of a worry that their next game is on a Thursday night so there's a chance the backups come in late. The Redskins have allowed 32, 31, 31 and 24 this season and have shown no direction defensively. On offense, they can't run the ball and the passing attack has disappeared a bit. Looks like no Jordan Reed on offense and Colt McCoy is under center. The veteran is who Jay Gruden wanted to start all along so we may see a little more offense from the team out of DC. I think the road team wins this one easily and scores a ton as well. I could see this being a 35-10 type game. 

Baltimore enters this one having lost two in a row to the Chiefs and the Browns. In each game they were gashed on defense by good offenses. Nick Chubb went nuts for Cleveland last week as part of a 40 point explosion. The Ravens offense isn't the issue because they are scoring points, but this defense is a problem right now. Pittsburgh got their first win last Monday against the Bengals and it was because of a very efficient effort by Mason Rudolph. The usage of Jaylen Samuels at wildcat was a nice wrinkle as well. The Steelers D lived in the Bengals backfield and was pretty solid on the back end. It's not great that the road team has won three of the last four games in this series, but I have to like the confidence Pittsburgh has right now. The Steelers are 7-2 against the spread as an underdog the last three seasons. I think they have a shot to win this game outright.

These two teams each have one win this season and are hoping for a second one. The Beavers are 1-3, but are averaging over 30 points per game. So far this team has losses to Oklahoma State and Hawaii to go along with a three point loss at the hands of Stanford. With Jake Luton who some people don't like and Jermar Jefferson at running back, the offense hasn't been the issue. The defense has let them down from time to time although they've done well the last two weeks. UCLA is 1-4 with losses to Cincy, San Diego State, Oklahoma and Arizona. The team's only win came in a wild one against Washington State on the road despite giving up nine touchdown passes. It looks like UCLA's starting QB may be out for this one which means they'll try to rely on the run a lot more. The Bruins defense isn't that great as they've given up 290 passing yards or more in four straight. UCLA is just 11-18-1 against the spread in their last 30 games including 3-8 in their last 11 as a favorite. Give me the road team. 

SMU has been the best story in college football as they are 5-0 with an offense that is averaging over 500 yards per game and 44.4 points. Their defense has been leaky but it hasn't mattered much. They gave up 30 to Arkansas State, 38 to TCU and 27 to North Texas. Shane Buechele has been a revelation coming over from Texas, but it's the WRs and the solid group of backs that have made the Mustangs go. Tulsa is 2-2 on the year and is coming off a bye week after a 24-21 win over Wyoming. They've had a really tough schedule with contests against Michigan State and Oklahoma State already. The Cowboys got whatever they wanted to on offense and Michigan State may have as well if they didn't have the issues with turnovers. Tulsa has gone under in all of their games and SMU has gone over in all of theirs. I just don't know how Tulsa slows them down in this one. Give me the over here. 

I've made so much money betting on the overs in JMU games because for some reason Vegas is tragically underrating the Dukes. JMU has scored 44, 63, 37 and 45 in their FCS games this season. They racked up over 300 yards of rushing in the win over Elon last week and is now playing their third straight road game in a semi sandwich situation. They are coming off a win against the head coach's former school and have a home game against 5th ranked Villanova next week. I have to think this defense which has been fantastic will give up some points. Granted, they've allowed 7, 12, 14 and 10 so far. Stony Brook is 4-1 and is coming off a 31-27 win over Rhode Island last week. They have the best offense in the CAA and are averaging nearly 30 points per contest. Last year's contest was a 13-10 game in Harrisonburg which is a concern, but I think both teams are better in 2019. Give me the over at this really low number. These two defenses could stop the other, but I'll take a shot that the offenses rule the day. 

This is a spot play as Texas embarks to their huge rivalry game against Oklahoma next week. The Longhorns have lost three of their last five in the contest before taking on the Sooners. Last year they beat K-State 19-14 as an eight point favorite and the year before that they beat K-State again 40-34 as a six point favorite. In 2016 they lost by 18 at Ok. State and that started a stretch of three straight losses. West Virginia is 3-1 with wins over JMU, NC State and Kansas. This team is running it a lot better and is finding some room to throw it too. The defense hasn't been great and that's a worry here. Texas is also 3-1 with wins over La Tech, Rice and Oklahoma State with the loss coming to LSU. The Longhorns offense has been fantastic this season outside of the slight turnover issue that it seems they've had. Their defense has been pretty good although the Cowboys gashed them for almost 500 yards of offense. There are plenty of Longhorns injuries in the secondary which could be a factor. Last year the Mountaineers went to Texas and won 42-41. They also won in Texas back in 2016. This has been a close series. I think we get a solid game here and the home team makes things interesting. 

This is a really high total for an NIU game. The Huskies have gone under in 10 of their last 13 games when the total is between 49.5 and 56. This is a team that plays ball control offense and has a pretty good defense. Overall, they've gone under in 18 of their last 31 games overall. Northern Illinois is a hard team to figure out because they've played one FCS opponent and then were on the road against Utah, Nebraska and Vandy who are all power five squads. The one thing I did notice is that they've been pretty good against the pass which will be important against Ball State. NIU's offense isn't running it very well, but Ross Bowers is doing some good things through the air. The Cardinals are 1-3 on the season with the win coming over Fordham of the FCS and the losses were to Indiana, FAU and NC State. BSU wants to chuck it all over the yard with Plitt under center and his bevy of wide receivers. Their defense is a question mark, but it's also faced better talent much like NIU. Last year this was a 24-16 game that went to the road team. I think we could see a similar score.

Toledo is 3-1 entering this matchup and has their usual stout offense to rely on. The QB is on point despite having essentially a new wide receiving corps. What the Rockets are doing is running it down people's throats with the Koback kid at running back. The Rockets scored 45 on Murray State, 41 on Colorado State and 28 on BYU. Toledo's defense is ranked 120th out of 130, but they are 59th in the nation in red zone defense. Western Michigan has scored 48, 17, 57, 33 and 31 this season with Jon Wassink under center. He was a little banged up but should be good for this one. LeVante Bellamy is a solid running back and their defense is like Toledo's in that it struggles against the better teams. They allowed 51 at Michigan State and 52 at Syracuse. Last year this was a 51-24 game in Kalamazoo. WMU has gone over in seven of their last 11 as an underdog and 17 of their last 30 overall. Toledo has gone over in 17 of their last 30 as well.

Virginia Tech's offense is absolutely anemic and it looks like they are making a quarterback change to Hendon Hooker. It was probably time for that to happen, but they've handcuffed him by basically making him a signal caller who runs it or hands it off. He's thrown just two passes in his college career so Miami's defense is going to tee off on him. The Canes have allowed just 270 yards per game and 16 points per contest. I'd heavily consider the team total under for the road team here as I just don't see how they get to 14. That means the Canes offense which has shown some success but is very inconsistent will have to do the heavy lifting. I'm guessing they spent some time working on some concepts considering they only put up 17 points and just over 300 yards on a MAC school. Tech has scored just 24 points in their last two meetings with Miami. VT has gone under in 11 of their last 18 ACC games while Miami has gone under in 14 of their last 18 conference contests. Give me the under here BUT the best bet is the under on the Hokies team total.

Georgia Southern is sitting at 1-3 entering this matchup against South Alabama on the road. The Eagles are coming off a 37-24 loss to Lafayette in which it's defense couldn't stop the ULL rushing attack. On offense, this team is just not doing enough despite them putting up over 20 points three times. They are not getting anything through the air and Shai Werts is having to do more work. GSU's road games were a 55-3 loss at LSU and a 35-32 loss at Minnesota. South Alabama is 1-4 with their only win coming 37-14 over Jackson State. This team's defense is pretty horrific allowing 30 points or more to all of their FBS opponents. The Jaguars offense has scored 26 points the last three weeks, but has flashed some ability with Cephus Johnson. The signal caller is also prone to some turnovers which will give GSU short fields to work with. Georgia Southern has won this game 48-13 and 52-0 the last two years. They will also get Wesley Kennedy back and that'll help the offense. I think they could score the over themselves so give me the lower total on a Thursday night. 

I'm not going to buy the Jaguars all of a sudden because of Gardner Minshew. This team is still 1-2 and most likely without Jalen Ramsey. Even with all of his bluster, the team still only put up 20 points on Tennessee last Thursday and some of that is because the home team has a slight edge on Thursday's of not traveling. This team doesn't run it well and their secondary can be picked apart a bit. Denver hasn't shown very much which is why they are only a small favorite here. They lost by eight in Oakland, then by two at home to Chicago in a game they should have won. Last week's loss was a tough one in Green Bay, but the running game showed a pulse. Freeman and Lindsay are a solid duo to use and take some pressure off Joe Flacco. This defense has played well in all three games outside of not having a sack. The total tells me that this is going to be a lower scoring game so I prefer having the Broncos moneyline just in case they win by 1 or 2. 

I'll take the plunge with the massive home underdog here as I just don't know how good the Chargers are. LA is 1-2 with a six point home win vs. the Colts to go along with a three point loss at Detroit and a seven point home loss to the Texans. LA's passing game has worked, but the kicking game is just so bad. They probably don't run it enough and the defense has been a little leaky at times. They were torched by Deshaun Watson and gave up nearly 400 yards to Indy in week one. If they didn't force four turnovers against Detroit, LA would have lost by a lot more. Look, I know Miami's terrible but they at least showed a little bit more of a pulse with Josh Rosen under center. Everything is bad about the Dolphins but this is the Chargers coming east and playing this team the week before hosting Denver which is a whole lot more important. The Chargers are 10-10-1 against the spread in their last 21 as a favorite. This might be my one and only chance to take Miami to cover and if they get blown out, I'll hate myself, but give me the boatload of points.

I'd play this all the way down to 14.5 although then it becomes a 2% selection

The Browns are a hard team to peg right now. They are 1-2 with a win over the Jets and home losses to the Titans and Rams. The defense is playing well against the run, but haven't faced a quarterback as mobile as Lamar Jackson. The secondary is also really banged up with Denzel Ward, Morgan Burnett and Greedy Williams all not practicing this week. Baltimore won't kill you through the air, but they will take shots when they get the chance. Everyone thought Cleveland's offense was going to rule the day, but so far they have not as Baker Mayfield has struggled and they aren't feeding Beckham enough. Freddie Kitchens is a liability at head coach for this team. Baltimore is 2-1 with wins over Miami and Arizona and a loss to KC on the road. This team will grind out possessions with the run and beat you with the pass. The problem is their secondary isn't very good and can be exploited. Last year with Mayfield and Jackson at QB this game was 26-24 in Baltimore. I think this one could be tight and I'm going with the over as Cleveland finds ways to put up points. 

Wyoming lost on the field 24-21 last week at Tulsa and took some big time injuries as well. Running back Trey Smith is out six to eight weeks with an ankle injury and Xazavian Valladay has been battling a foot injury which won't keep him out of the game. Guard Logan Harris and corner Tyler Hall sustained concussions and their status is up in the air. The team's right tackle Alonzo Velazquez isn't expected to play with a knee injury either. UNLV's coaching staff said they spent their bye week working really hard on the Cowboys who finally got picked off after a lucky 3-0 start. “We did a little more (game preparation) than you would if we had a bye in say Week 6, 7,” Sanchez said. “We’ll handle the next bye week (in November) a little bit differently than we did this. … I feel really good about where we are moving on into this week.”

Wyoming beat Missou 37-31 at home then somehow beat Texas State on the road despite being outgained. They then only took down Idaho 21-16 as a 27.5 point favorite. This team wants to run the ball and use Chambers as sparingly as possible. UNLV's got a win over Southern Utah 56-23 and losses of 43-17 to Arkansas State and 30-14 to Northwestern. It's a concern that their quarterback position is a massive concern and their run defense isn't great, but the Rebels have also forced nine turnovers. UNLV has covered nine of their last 12 as a road underdog. Wyoming is 7-7 against the spread the last few seasons at home. Give me the road team plus the points.

Kentucky and South Carolina play in a crucial game in the SEC. Both of these teams have some gaudy offensive numbers, but when you dig into them a little, it's against a lot of lesser opponents. Kentucky is 2-2 with wins over EMU and Toledo, but that's been followed up by losses to Mississippi State and Florida as the offense dried up under Sawyer Smith. Once the Wildcats lost Wilson under center, things changed up. I like their defense although they did get gashed on the ground by Toledo and Mississippi St. South Carolina's only win came against Charleston Southern and that was 72-10. The Gamecocks lost 24-20 to North Carolina, 47-23 to Alabama and 34-14 to Missouri. Hilinski has not been very good since the lone win of the season. They didn't run it very well against Missou and struggled to stop their balanced attack. To me, this is a matchup of very similar teams with the same issues. Last year these two played a 24-10 game and a 23-13 one back in 2017. UK has gone under in eight of their last 11 road games while South Carolina has gone under in 10 of their last 18 SEC games. I think this one is an under as well.

UCF is going to be quite the angry bunch on Saturday as they host the awful UConn. The Golden Knights are coming off a tough 35-34 loss to Pittsburgh which killed their chances of making the College Football Playoff. This team has bludgeoned their lesser opponents beating Florida A&M 62-0, FAU 48-14 and destroyed Stanford 45-27. This offense is quite prolific and they'll be eager to get Dillon Gabriel back on track. The Huskies are 1-2 with a 24-21 win over Wagner to go with losses of 31-23 to Illinois and 38-3 to Indiana. This offense is anemic and their defense can't stop the run or the pass right now. Last year these two teams played a 56-17 game in Storrs with the road team winning as a 23.5 point favorite. This team has been a favorite of 31 or more points four times the last three seasons. They are 18-7 against the spread in their last 26 contests as a favorite. I think this one gets really ugly. 

Georgia Southern is starting Sun Belt play on Saturday as they host Louisiana. The Eagles are coming off a bye week and despite the fact they are 1-2, there's still a lot to like. They nearly knocked off Minnesota two weeks ago on the road and have a tight win over Maine. I was worried about how the triple option would look with Justin Tomlin under center but he ran it pretty well against the Golden Gophers. The defense's biggest strength is against the run holding teams to 89 yards per game on the ground. Minnesota only managed 93 yards on 48 carries and LSU only got 122. Yes, this means they are vulnerable through the air which means Lake Lewis will have to be good. Lafayette wants to run it, but can also throw the ball around the yard as well. Their wins are over Liberty, Texas Southern and Ohio with a 10 point loss against Mississippi State sprinkled in. The Ragin Cajuns have had a turnover issue with 12 of them the last three weeks and that's a concern. Lafayette doesn't have the extra time to prepare for the option while GSU had a week to get healthier. Maybe there's a chance Shai Werts gets in under center. These two played back in 2017 with GSU winning 34-24 as a four point underdog. I think they are worth a look here. ULL is going to be without defensive lineman Chauncey Manac for this one as well. 

New Mexico is 2-1 and flying cross country to play Liberty on Saturday. The Lobos have wins over Sam Houston State (39-31) and New Mexico State (55-52) to go along with a 66-14 loss to Notre Dame. This offense has found some balance despite rotating a bunch of quarterbacks. Their defense is horrendous against the pass which will be an issue against the recently hot Buckshot Calvert and Antonio Gandy Golden. The last two weeks Liberty began to play like the team I thought they would be. They beat Hampton 62-27 and Buffalo 35-17 at home. The Flames defense is really young in spots and should struggle against the diverse attack of the road team. The Lobos have also not allowed a sack yet this year. Last year these two played a crazy 52-43 game in New Mexico with the teams each racking up nearly 600 yards apiece. This game has shootout written all over it. 

This is a situational play for me as SMU is 4-0 and is coming off an emotional 41-38 road win at TCU. The Horned Frogs have been awesome offensively with Shane Buechele under center. They've beaten people on the ground and through the air. The defense has also sprung some leaks allowing over 200 yards on the ground twice. I think there's a chance we don't get a focused Mustangs bunch in this one. South Florida is coming off a bye week after a 55-16 win over South Carolina State. It was an awful start to the season with a 49-0 loss to Wisconsin and a 14-10 defeat at the hands of Georgia Tech. I'm sure the Bulls used a lot of time this bye week to work on Kerwin Bell's speedy offense. The talent is there with this bunch and they may find some success against SMU. The Mustangs have gone over in every game this season and have failed to cover the last three years as a road favorite. It's interesting to see that the McCloud kid is starting at QB and not Blake Barnett. Maybe that'll spark something. 

San Jose State is feeling really good about themselves after beating Arkansas 31-24 on the road. The Spartans had a rally on Monday and a little extra celebration after the win. They have a 35-18 win over Northern Colorado and a 34-16 loss to Tulsa. In those games the Spartans showed some balance on offense and some struggles on defense. The Golden Hurricane ran for 256 yards in their win in California. I have to wonder what the SJSU focus will be like for this one. Air Force is also 2-1 with a 48-7 win over Colgate to go along with a 30-23 overtime defeat of Colorado. They lost a tough one to Boise last week 30-19. This is a respectable defense, but more importantly an offense that can run it and throw it. Donald Hammond is running this thing really well. Give me the Force to cover this big number as they wear down the Spartans. 

The Steelers are around a touchdown underdog on Sunday as they hit the road to play San Francisco. The Niners are 2-0 and have done everything right so far on both sides of the ball. Upon closer inspection though, they took care of business against the Bucs and Bengals who aren't very good. San Fran racked up almost 600 yards of offense on the Bengals and held them in check defensively as well. Obviously Kyle Shanahan is a good coach and Jimmy G is learning at quarterback, but I think this is a bit of an overreaction. Pittsburgh got blasted in week one by New England 33-3 and then the team lost a tough one 28-26 to the Seahawks. In the contest, Mason Rudolph came in and almost brought his team back. I've liked the kid since Oklahoma State and think he's got the right stuff to keep things going. It looks like James Conner is going to be fine and will play Sunday which will be a help. I also think the locker room gets a boost from the front office trading for Minkah Fitzpatrick who will instantly be an upgrade on the secondary. I think this is a prideful bunch and don't forget the stands will be littered with Steelers fans. Pittsburgh has been a road underdog six times the last three seasons and has covered five of those games. San Fran has been a home favorite just four times the last three years and has failed to cover in all four. The Niners could be an improved team, but I'll dig in and hope for one last great effort from Pittsburgh as they rally behind Rudolph. 

This line is rather crazy as I think the Eagles could be without several key players including DeSean Jackson, Timmy Jernigan and maybe even Alshon Jeffery. I'll add more to this later on in the week, but I think this could be a little closer especially if Carson Wentz has no one to throw to. 

Color me unimpressed with the Falcons after they nearly lost to an Eagles team at home that had like 10 players hurt and Carson Wentz looking terrible. Atlanta can't get any sort of running game going and Matt Ryan is turning it over way too much. ATL has seven turnovers to just one forced. Yes, their secondary is putting up good numbers, but it was helped by the 10 attempts by Minnesota in week one. The Vikings committed to the run and shoved it down the Falcons throats. Atlanta is 5-14 against the spread in their last 19 road games. Indy went 1-1 in their two road games to start the year. The Colts lost 30-24 at the Chargers week one in overtime and then beat the Titans 19-17 on the road. In each contest they were able to run it well and have Jacoby Brissett do enough to win. Indy's defense doesn't get enough credit as they've done pretty well as a unit. Darius Leonard is still one of the better linebackers in the league. The crowd will be fired up to finally have their team home. I think the Colts win this one outright. 

Minnesota is 1-1 this season after a 28-12 win over Atlanta and a 21-16 loss to Green Bay. The Vikings defense has been very good this year and has forced six turnovers. Kirk Cousins has not been very good and this team is pretty much trying to run the ball and control the clock. Oakland's defense is probably better then we thought it would be considering they held Denver to 16 points and KC to 28. The Chiefs weren't able to run the ball and the Broncos had modest success. Oakland's offense is very mediocre and I wonder how much they'll be able to move against the Vikes especially on the road. The Raiders have gone under in 17 of their last 25 as an underdog including eight of their last 13 on the road. Minnesota has gone under in 12 of their last 18 at home. I think this one is a bit lower scoring. 

To me, this seems an awful lot like the WM/UVA game last week in that you've got a name your score type affair with the home team. UVA is averaging almost 40 points per game while the defense has also done some work as well. At times last Saturday they went bend but don't break as a unit which worked against the Seminoles. The Hoos have scored 30 points or more in every game and they have to work on cutting down the turnovers. A factor to consider is that they have Notre Dame on the road next week. ODU has two games under their belt with a 24-21 win over Norfolk State and a 31-17 loss in Blacksburg vs. Virginia Tech. The Monarchs defense doesn't scare me much. Their offense has potential with Stone Smartt under center as he brings mobility that keeps team's honest. He needs to fix his passing game because he's a little raw in that area. I can see this one being a 41-10 contest. I think the line move on the total is bad. 

Liberty is coming off their first win of the season as a three game homestand continues on Saturday. The Flames beat Buffalo 35-17 and finally looked like the offense we thought they'd have with Buckshot Calvert and Antonio-Gandy Golden. The defense has it's issues allowing 35 to Louisiana and 24 to Syracuse. Last year this team beat Norfolk State 52-17 at home as an FCS opponent. I think they should be able to put up some points on Hampton. The Pirates beat Elizabeth City State 65-7 in week one, then losing 36-17 to lower level Virginia Union before winning 41-20 on the road against Howard. The former FSU standout Deondre Francois has been the signal caller for Hampton so far this season. He's had a mixed bag of results so far this season. The one thing I do notice is that Hampton's defense isn't good enough. Francois has 7 TDs and 2 INTs. I think this one sees some points as they go up and down the field. 

East Carolina dipping into the FCS ranks for a second time this season as they host William and Mary. The Pirates beat Gardner Webb two weeks ago 48-9 and that was their best offensive effort after scoring six against NC State and 10 against Navy. I don't mind Holton Ahlers as a signal caller, but it's not good that they don't have Darius Pinnix in the backfield. The defense is as mediocre as you can get and I think they'll give up some points to the Tribe. Last year, WM's offense was very anemic, but they've put up 30 points or more on two good defenses in Lafayette and Colgate. Hollis Mathis is an intriguing prospect at quarterback as he brings some mobility and a solid arm. In between the two wins, UVA crushed the Tribe 52-17. I don't see the Pirates scoring that much but I do think William and Mary put up 20 or more. I can see this one going over the total. 

This total moved down a ton this week and now that it's at around 48.5 and 49, I want in on the over. Kansas is feeling good right now after beating BC on the road 48-24 in a game that saw them pretty much do whatever they want on the ground and through the air. Now, the defense was still an issue, but they were able to make the stops when it mattered. The Jayhawks other two games were a 24-17 win over Indiana State and a 12-7 loss to Coastal Carolina. Pooka Williams was not available for that first contest and that makes a rather large difference. West Virginia is 2-1 and has been all over the board when it comes to performance. They beat James Madison 20-13 in a tight contest then lost 38-7 at Missouri. Austin Kendall and the offense got going last week in a 44-27 win over NC State. The defense is very beatable especially on the ground as pretty much all three opponents took advantage of it. These two teams have played contests with scores of 38-22, 56-34 and 48-21 the last three years. Points will be scored by both sides in this contest. Give me the over in this one. WVU has gone over in 11 of their last 18 in conference.

Chattanooga is 1-2 on the season entering this home matchup against James Madison. The Mocs beat Eastern Illinois week one 24-10 at home and then got blitzed by Jacksonville State 41-20 and Tennessee 45-0. In each of those games, they folded under the pressure of the better offenses. Elijah Ibitokun-Hanks is the big time running back in that one and he comes over from Maine with Ailym Ford also providing some rushing yards. Opponents have been able to beat the Mocs through the air for the most part and JMU can certainly do that. The totals on Dukes games have been tragically low in my mind and I've taken advantage of it the past few weeks. They put up 63 last week on Morgan State, 44 on St. Francis of PA and 13 at West Virginia. The last FCS regular season road game they had was back in 2014 when they beat Lehigh 31-28 in Bethlehem PA. This offense wants to go fast and this defense wants to put pressure on you. At this number, I could see JMU winning and putting up at least 35 points. Once again, their total is too low so give me the over.

The Owls made headlines last week as they held down the potent Maryland offense to the tune of 20-17 with several goal line stands. It's hard to figure how good Temple's offense is because they beat Bucknell 56-12 in week one and put up some decent numbers against the Terps, but Anthony Russo is prone to throwing some awful passes. The Owls defense could be one of the best in the country in the group of five. They'll be looking for revenge against Buffalo who beat them in Philly last year although UB was a lot better then. The Bulls beat Robert Morris 38-10 and then lost 45-13 to Penn State and 35-17 at Liberty. This team wants to run it with Marks and Patterson and they stop the run pretty well. The problems come in the secondary where they have been gashed. Temple's got a lot at stake in this one and I think their defense shows up in a lower scoring game.

Wyoming is dying to be picked off and I think it finally happens on Saturday. The Cowboys have an extremely anemic passing attack and a defense that can be beaten through the air. They have a 37-31 win over Missouri followed by 23-14 victory over Texas State and then they skated by 21-16 against Idaho. This team has just 18 completions in three games and have allowed their FBS opponents to get whatever they want. I don't love Tulsa considering what they've gone through so far. The Golden Hurricane lost 28-7 to Michigan State, and 40-21 to Oklahoma State, but also beat San Jose State 34-16 on the road. The offense has shown some balance, but they really need to cut down on the turnovers. The defense got gashed by the Big 12 team, but Wyoming's offense shouldn't scare anyone especially if you stack the box against their run game. I like the home team to get the win outright. 

Iowa State has to be wondering what happened last week in their 18-17 loss to rival Iowa. The Cyclones have played just two games so far this season with the other being a three point win over Northern Iowa in 3OTs. Brock Purdy just doesn't have enough help elsewhere on the team. The defense has been very good as they've held teams to two touchdowns and a bunch of field goals. Is there a hangover here for the noon kickoff or are they angry and ready to blow someone apart. The Warhawks are 1-1 beating Grambling 31-9 and then losing 45-44 in overtime to Florida State. Good thing for them is that they had a bye week afterwards to heal up after the physical affair. I really like the potential of this offense with Caleb Evans under center. They have hung around .500 the last three seasons as a road underdog under Matt Viator. There's certainly blowout potential here, but I think Iowa State will be in a bit of a fog as they struggle to a win. 

This matchup had so much promise before the season and now both teams are struggling to a certain degree. FIU is 1-2 with the win coming over New Hampshire last week 30-17. They ran for over 300 yards of offense on the FCS opponent and played pretty good defense. Outside of getting gashed by Tulane in week one, the Golden Panthers have been pretty good on that side of the ball. James Morgan may return but if not the Wiggins kid will be under center and he can beat you with his legs. Louisiana Tech may be 2-1, but they haven't exactly been that great. This team beat Grambling 20-14 two weeks ago as a 30 point favorite. The defense hasn't been the issue although they were beat up by Texas. J'Mar Smith is the Tech QB and Adrian Hardy is a very good receiver. Still, both of these teams have their faults. Louisiana Tech has gone under in 18 of their last 29 games including 11 of their last 18 as a favorite. I think this one is an under on Friday night.

The Eagles flexed their muscles against the Redskins last week winning 32-27. Philly has one of the most explosive offenses in football with so many weapons for teams to deal with. The problems came in the secondary where Case Keenum sliced right through them. I'd like to think Matt Ryan and Julio Jones will have big games against this defense in a must win situation. Atlanta lost 28-12 to the Vikings as Minnesota pretty much ran it down their throats the whole time. These two have played three straight lower scoring games over the past few seasons, but they were outdoors in Philly. Last year it was Nick Foles going for the home team. I just think in the dome, this one will see a lot more points as both teams try to pick up a victory. 

It's an NFC East game as the Redskins host the Cowboys. The Skins lost 32-27 to the Eagles last time out after going up 20-7 at halftime. Their offense found some early success that I don't think they will find against one of the better defenses in the league. Adrian Peterson replaces Derrius Guice at running back and Case Keenum's weapons are really young. The defense will be without Jonathan Allen and maybe a pair of corners as well. On the Dallas side, they did what they had to against the Giants winning 35-17. Dak Prescott had a really good game, but New York isn't exactly much of a challenge. The Cowboys have gone under in 11 of their last 17 on the road. The Skins lost at home last year to Dallas 20-17 and has scored 20 points or less in three of their last four meetings with the Boys. I think this one is an under. I can see something like 31-10 as the Cowboys move up and down the field on Washington. 

The Patriots are huge favorites in this one as they travel to Miami to play a Dolphins team that just allowed 59 points to the Ravens. This is a contest that may mean a little more to the Pats because it's been a house of horrors for them in past years. New England is in a name your score situation here and usually they just go nuts on opponents. With Antonio Brown coming into the fold, the team has another weapon for teams to worry about. They beat the Steelers 33-3 last week. I don't know if Miami will score here, but I could totally see the Pats winning this 49-0 and it going over the total.

The Gators are coming off a 45-0 home win over UT Martin as the team built off the week one win over Miami 24-20. We saw how good this defense has been and how inconsistent the offense is with Feleipe Franks. Good thing for them is that the D has been fantastic. Last year the Wildcats snapped a long losing streak to UF with a 27-16 road win. That team relied a lot on Benny Snell who is now in the NFL. The current version of UK took a major hit once they lost Terry Wilson at quarterback. In steps Troy transfer Sawyer Smith who has some ability but is nowhere near as good as Wilson. The Gators are leading the nation in sacks so he could constantly be on the run. I kinda like this Wildcats defense as well. I think this one is a bit lower scoring and I'd even consider looking at the Kentucky team total under as I think they struggle to get to double digits. 

Miami has to be quite ornery after starting out the year 0-2 against Florida and North Carolina. The Hurricane defense has not lived up to it's highly touted levels from the preseason allowing 24 to the Gators and 28 to the Tar Heels. Jarren Williams should have all the time in the world in this one and if he does, he'll connect plenty to KJ Osborn and Jeff Thomas out wide. Heck, we could see Tate Martell do something as well. Last year in the FCS game, the Canes won 77-0 over Savannah State as a 60 point favorite. Two years ago they played this Bethune Cookman team to a 41-13 game in week one. The Wildcats beat Jackson State 36-15 in week one and this is a team last year that played two FBS opponents. On September 15th they lost 49-28 to Florida Atlantic then took on Nebraska just over a month later falling 45-9 on the road. Akevious Williams is an intriguing quarterback with several linemen and receivers back. The defense is good for a MEAC level, but this is a step up. I find it hard to believe that Miami doesn't go nuts and probably go over the total themselves. This one should get really really ugly. 

Morgan State disappointed me immensely in week one as they lost 46-3 to the lowly Bowling Green Falcons. The Bears were outgained 620-70 in that one as BG did whatever they wanted in this one. Morgan St is coached by Tyrone Wheatley and they are supposed to be going to a more uptempo offense. This team is coming off a bye week giving them some time to tinker with things a little bit. Last year, this team played two CAA squads and lost 36-10 to Towson and 30-27 to Albany. James Madison is way better then both of them and has a highly potent offense led by Ben DiNucci and Solomon Vanhorse. They lost 20-13 to West Virginia in Morgantown, but then bounced back to beat St. Francis of PA 44-7. The Dukes want to play uptempo and get things going with their talent advantage. At home in 2018 this team played games with scores of 73-7 and 51-0 as well as 48-31. I think the Dukes can do a lot of the heavy lifting here on this total and we see something like 45-3 or something like that. Morgan State is no match. 

South Alabama has played well so far this season keeping it close with Nebraska in week one 35-21. In week two the Jaguars bounced back and beat Jackson State 37-14. I like Cephus Johnson at quarterback as he's got a lot of raw talent and in the case of overs, he can throw the occasional interception. This offense has eight returning starters. Last year when the Jags took a step up they lost 55-13 to Oklahoma State and 52-35 to these Memphis Tigers. Memphis is 2-0 with a 15-10 win over Ole Miss followed by a 58-24 victory over Southern. There's no questioning this offense with Brady White under center and Damontie Coxie out wide. I'm not thrilled to be without Patrick Taylor for this one at running back, but I think this team is very capable of putting up some points without him. I think this one is an over as both teams are capable of putting up some points. 

This is so odd that the total is this high. Looking at BYU, they lost 30-12 at home against Utah and then they beat Tennessee 29-26 in double overtime on the road. Zach Wilson is an ugly quarterback who just hasn't done a lot this season. He didn't get his first touchdown until overtime last week. The Cougars defense has been pretty solid so that's a good thing for this wager. On the other side, you have a USC team that beat Stanford 45-20 with Kedon Slovis under center. Slovis is a rookie who did a lot in his first start. Now he's going to head to a hostile atmosphere where I think he struggles a little bit. The team beat Fresno State 31-23 at home in week one. They've got a huge game at home against Utah next Friday night so focus could be a bit of an issue. I don't mind this Trojans defense in this matchup. I just think this one is way too high. Give me the under in this one. 

Central Michigan enters this one coming off a 61-0 loss to Wisconsin in a contest that saw them lose quarterback Quinten Dormady and running back Jonathan Ward who are their two best weapons. David Moore will start at quarterback while sophomore Kobe Lewis will work with the first team. Moore came in relief and threw for one yard against the Badgers. CMU just doesn't have the offensive ability to overcome something like this and they have issues on defense. On the other side, it's been a rough start for the Zips who lost to UAB at home and Illinois on the road. Still, there are many picking Akron to win their half of the MAC led by Kato Nelson under center. They played CMU last year and beat them 17-10 at home. The Zips are on the road so that's not great, but I can't imagine there's too much of a homefield advantage for the Chips. 

This is the second time that I've tapped the Spartans this season after they covered in a close to loss to Old Dominion way back in week one. This is a veteran bunch who is led by a very good quarterback in Juwan Carter. Last week Carter threw for four touchdowns in a 44-21 win over Virginia State who is a level below NSU. This team has some solid weapons and not the worst defense in the world. Back in week one they lost 24-21 to ODU and showed that they could go punch for punch with them. Coastal Carolina is 1-1 losing 30-23 to Eastern Michigan at home in week one. In week two they went to Kansas to win 12-7 in a contest that I'm sure they are really excited about. This offense has been pretty underwhelming this season. Last year the Chanticleers won 58-21 at Campbell. This team has not covered their last three games as a home favorite. This is a rather large number. Give me the FCS squad. 

I really like the spot here for Air Force. The Falcons have had two weeks to prepare for Colorado after a 48-7 win over Colgate in week one. Air Force runs a really solid triple option with Donald Hammond at quarterback. He's been in the system and has some decent weapons around him in the backfield. Reading a lot of the quotes coming from the team that say they are pretty confident entering this one. Mountain West teams have won seven of their last 10 against the PAC-12. Air Force has a pretty solid defense and went 3-1-1 against the spread on the road as an underdog last year. Colorado is 2-0 and is coming off the highly emotional win over rival Nebraska in overtime. They put a lot into this game and received a ton of accolades for the victory. Really if you break it down, this team wants to throw it and throw it some more with Montez and Laviska Shenault. The Buffaloes have a road trip to Arizona State up next. I think if they aren't ready, the road team can win this one outright. Give me the Air Force.