UCF gets UConn at home on Saturday. The Golden Knights have scored 73, 63 and 40 the last three home contests they've had. This offense can beat you on the ground and through the air. In comes UConn who has allowed 30 points or more in six of their last eight games including 38 at UVA, 49 at SMU and 70 to Memphis at home. The Huskies offense has shown some flashes of brilliance, but I'm counting on UCF to do most of the heavy lifting with this total. There's no lookahead factor for either squad too so I expect a full effort from both. 

Ole Miss has gone over in six straight and it's a mixture of good offense and bad bad bad defense. The Rebels are happy after a three point win at Kentucky last time out 37-34. The backup quarterback has been playing well and should continue to do so against a Lafayette team that is very giving on defense. The question is if they can take advantage of a leaky Ole Miss defense who has allowed 34 points or more in six straight. ULL lost 45-21 at Texas A&M back in September at their place. Now there's been some injuries that will change things, but I think this one should go over the total especially if the team out of the SEC isn't focused. 

Athletes are usually what you get from Dan Monson and Long Beach State. He's got a ton of new players to break in and they played well in the exhibition season, but I still think this is a big number. San Francisco returns a couple starters from a postseason team and a system that fits them well. They've covered just 11 of their last 26 home games and 14 of their last 29 as a favorite. This team has not been a favorite this large at home for at least three years. I think it's a little much.

Oklahoma State continues to lose players to suspension or being held out for investigation. Jeffrey Carroll is the latest and I think Pepperdine's returning talent can keep things close. This won't accurately reflect how good the Cowboys are, but I think this one is close.

Both of these teams return a lot of Seniors, but it's the road team with more depth. Arkansas is without Dustin Thomas, Arlando Cook and Khalil Garland. They do have Daryl Macon and Jaylen Barford to lead the way. Scott Padgett returns the top seven scorers from a CIT appearance. Demetrius Denzel-Dyson is good and they added a transfer from Alabama. Samford has covered 13 of their last 17 non-conference games because their style is hard to prepare for. I think they can keep this one close. 

Georgia Southern returns all five starters against a Wake Forest team that will need to find some scoring with the loss of some pretty big pieces. The Demon Deacons have some solid freshman talent, but it will take some time for them to get used to college basketball and their new roles as well. Both teams have rather strong backcourts with Tookie Brown vs. Bryant Crawford being a good matchup. Wake has covered just 10 of their last 25 home games and nine of their last 22 as a favorite. GSU's depth will help them keep things close in this potential track meet.

The Keydets will be one of the worst teams in the country and will be frequently on my fade list. They just don't have much talent after QJ Peterson left. The talent level is just not there and they don't score enough to keep up with an NC State. Kevin Keatts will want to make a statement in his first game with the Wolfpack. He wants to press and run and score a lot of points off turnovers. The Wolfpack are by far the bigger team of the two and they'll have Lennard and Allerik Freeman who will each look for their own shots. This team won their exhibition handily and will do so again on Friday. 

It's another season of almost instantly betting the over in Fort Wayne games. The Mastodons return Jon Konchar and several other options so scoring won't be an issue. Their problem comes on the defensive end where they allowed over 80 points on the road. The Dons have gone over in 37 of their last 56 games. Oakland loves to get up and down as well. They trend heavily to the over and Kendrick Nunn is going to be a very potent scorer. Quite simply, these two teams should put up at least 80 and we'll go over the total. 

It's a rebuilding year for Dayton who lost four starters and their head coach. Now it's Anthony Grant's job to continue the Flyers success. He has some intriguing pieces in Josh Cunningham, Xeyrius Williams and Kostas Antetokounmpo who is related to the Greek Freak. Grant played with tempo at VCU and may look to do the same with his young team. We know Ball State likes to run. They've got a lot of returning talent and a lot of shooters who will cause the Flyers fits. They have gone over in 37 of their last 58 games including 14 of their last 20 when the total is in the 140s. Early on in the season, there are more fouls called and with this being close, I think we get over the total with both teams shooting late FTs. There will be pace in this one.

The Titans had a rough season last year, but return four starters from a potent team offensively. They averaged 77 points per game, but the problems were on defense with allowing almost 85. Freshman Jermaine Jackson joins Kameron Chatman from Michigan and Roschon Prince from Long Beach State as new talent for Bacari Alexander to use. The Hokies are expected to make the NCAA Tournament once again and have some freshman talent infused into their lineup. This group is very hot and cold. They shot over 50% at home last year. They've been a home favorite of this much just 13 times since 1992 covering just five times. I think this is a lot of points for the Hokies against a team that could keep up a little bit in a track meet

I backed the Pack two weeks ago at home against New Orleans and it didn't work out. Two weeks later, I'm going to back them again at home fresh off a bye week. Brett Hundley is better then he played against the Saints and with two weeks to prepare, I think we see a better effort. Aaron Jones is running the ball well and has taken a stranglehold of the position. The Packers defense is on par with the Lions although they are more vulnerable on the ground which Detroit won't be able to take advantage of. The Lions have lost three straight and four of their last five games as Matt Stafford has hit a bit of a rough patch. Detroit didn't capitalize on their red zone trips at home against Pittsburgh last time out and now heads to Green Bay. The Lions have failed to cover in 15 of their last 21 games as a road favorite of three points or less. I think the Packers bounce back. 

To me, it's kind of a joke that the Raiders are favored in this one. They've lost four of their last five as the defense continues to fail and the offense doesn't do enough. The addition of Marshawn Lynch hasn't added what the team thought it would and Derek Carr at times is doing a little bit too much. The defense has sprung too many leaks for my liking either. Now Miami isn't much better right now as they trade Jay Ajayi and are coming off a 40-0 loss at Baltimore. This snapped the team's three game win streak. The defense has played pretty well for the most part while Jay Cutler returns to the lineup along with DeVante Parker most likely. Miami should be able to take advantage of Oakland's banged up secondary. I think they win this one outright so I'll gladly take the points.

The bye week won't fix what ails the Giants as they host the Rams on Sunday. Janoris Jenkins is not playing after not reporting to the team quick enough off the bye week. The defense has been good for the most part although they are spending way too much time on the field. Eli Manning has no run game to speak of and he's running out of pass catchers with all the injuries. On the other side is a Rams squad that has allowed 33 points their last three games total. Jared Goff is making this offense work although Todd Gurley is doing a lot of the work. To me, this one seems like a lower scoring contest. The Rams have gone under in 23 of their last 39 games. Yes, they have skewed to the over this season, but I think both teams defenses will be fresh and ready for this one.

Carolina traded Kelvin Benjamin away taking away one of their better weapons as they continue to play without Greg Olsen. Now the offense is led by Devin Funchess and Christian McCaffrey who has become a dangerous pass catcher. Atlanta's defense isn't that great, but it's been good against the run and has allowed more then 300 yards passing just once and that was against Aaron Rodgers. The Falcons offense has been broken and isn't the same without Kyle Shanahan. They've gone under in three of their last four and don't look like themselves. Carolina's defense has been fantastic and will be glad to be finally home after four of their last five on the road. These two have played 16 unders in their last 21 meetings in Carolina because the Falcons offense is completely different outside the dome.

I know that the Titans are coming off a bye week, but so is Baltimore who played last Thursday in their romp over Miami. The Ravens defense is getting healthier and it's showing on the field as they held the Dolphins to less then 200 yards of total offense. Their own offense has been an issue although Alex Collins is taking over the reins at running back and Danny Woodhead is working his way back as well. Tennessee has been held to 14 points or less in three of their last four and have been relatively unimpressive on both sides of the ball. They should have lost in Cleveland two weeks ago and are not looking like the team we thought they would be. Tennessee has covered just 14 of their last 39 games and eight of their last 30 against the rest of the AFC. I think this is a lower scoring game and the underdog is better suited for those.

This one is going to be a lower scoring game. Denver's defense is good enough to hold down the Philly offense and despite all the situations that go against them, I think that this is a lot of points. 

Boise State has won four straight and five of their last six entering Saturday's game against Nevada. The Broncos defense has been fantastic, but I think Nevada will stress them a bit. The Wolf Pack has scored 35 points or more in three straight and are doing it with the pass and just enough run as well. Their defense isn't great, but Boise isn't going to wow you with their offense. They also have a bigger game on the road next week at Colorado State that they need their focus for. The Pack has covered in three straight games. Boise has covered just two of their last 16 home games and 11 of their last 31 as a favorite. I think the road team is live in this one.

The Green Wave has lost three straight, but should bounce back in this one against Cincinnati. Tulane's getting a key player back on offense and defense which will help both ailing units. They got smacked by Memphis after losing a tough close game with South Florida. When they are on, the triple optionesque offense is tough to stop. They steamrolled Tulsa and beat Army as well. The defense is capable of more and should shut down Cincinnati. The Bearcats have lost five straight and it's because of a defense that has allowed 30 points or more in each of those games. They don't stop the run and have had problems with the pass. Tulane has covered seven of their last nine as a favorite and nine of their last 16 home games. Cincy has covered just 12 of their last 33 overall. I think the home team gets an easy win.

Things are looking a little better for Nebraska who is coming off a late comeback win at Purdue. They threw for over 400 yards in that one and saw the defense make just enough stops to win. Tanner Lee is talking about being more comfortable in the offense and he'll face one of the worst secondaries in the conference. Northwestern was gashed by Sparty last week in their multiple overtime game. They've won three in a row, but how much is in the tank after that close win over MSU. Northwestern has a win at Maryland, but also lost at Wisconsin and Duke. The Wildcats will rely on their ground game here, but Nebraska has shown in the past that they can slow that down. I think the home team continues their momentum and gets the win.

The Mountaineers have a big game as they host Iowa State on Saturday. WVU is coming off a 50-39 loss to Oklahoma State in a game that saw them turn it over five times. Their defense has been awful, but I think the offense can keep up in any sort of shootout. Iowa State has won four straight and is looking at a huge home game against Oklahoma State next week. The Cyclones have won despite poor play from quarterback. A lot of credit goes to the secondary and the defense as a whole forcing turnovers. I think the Cyclones are playing over their heads so as long as this thing is below three then I'm on the home team. 

I like taking the unders in games against the academies because most times these teams know what the other is going to do. The Air Force game against Navy did not go under unfortunately, but Army's contest with Tulane did. Both of these teams run the ball really well and Army had two weeks to get ready for the Air Force. That time off will make a difference as we've seen when squads get an extra week to prepare for Navy. Air Force has a lot of weapons and Arion Worthman is running the offense well. Neither defense is great, but they are going to be familiar with each other. The under has hit in nine of their last 13 lined meetings. Air Force won last year 31-12 on the road. I think this one is an under.

It should be a shootout in Monroe as they host App State. The Warhawks have gone over in four of their last six games as their defense has been pretty leaky. They've allowed 30 points or more in three straight and five of their last six. The offense has been humming at times though so they'll contribute to any shootout. The Mountaineers are coming off a tough loss to the Minutemen on the road and are playing their third game away from home over a four week span. Taylor Lamb has been doing good work while the defense has been a bit leaky themselves. Monroe has gone over in 22 of their last 33 including 16 of their last 22 in conference. This one has shootout potential.

Fading Rice continues to be good business for us for the most part this season. The Owls are terrible offensively. The 28 points they scored in their home loss to Louisiana Tech was slightly less then the 29 points they put up combined in the previous three games. The Rice defense is pretty bad especially on the road. UAB has been a fantastic story after bringing football back. They have won three of their last four and will be glad to be home where they've covered every game this season. They like to run the ball which they should in this one while the defense has also been very good for the most part. I'll pretty much always fade Rice especially on the road. 

Florida State has lost two straight and four of their last six as they continue to spiral down the drain. Quotes coming out of Tallahassee have the players wondering about the other players and who they are playing for. The offense is not doing much other then turning the ball over. The defense is also playing poorly despite the fact that they were supposed to be the stronger unit. Syracuse has won two of their last three and played well in Miami in an eight point loss. Eric Dungey threw four INTs in that game, but that's the only contest he's really struggled in. The Orange's defense also makes stops when they need to. It's an underrated unit. The line move scares me because people are almost blindly backing the public team. To me, Florida State is giving up on the season and I think Syracuse adds to their misery.

Purdue's once hot offense has sputtered as of late scoring just 45 points the last three weeks against Wisconsin, Rutgers and Nebraska. They've been struggling at quarterback and are experiencing growing pains under Jeff Brohm. The defense has done good work though especially against the opponents with lesser weapons. Illinois probably qualifies there with all the injuries they've dealt with and their own quarterback inefficiencies. The Illini has shown some improvement on defense themselves and it comes with the linebackers getting healthy. They've gone under in two straight while the Boilers have done so in three straight and five of their last six. I think this one is a lower scoring game with two defenses capable of stepping up.

It's a big time battle in Boca Raton as the Owls host Marshall. FAU is 5-3 by virtue of a ground game that's averaging nearly 300 yards per game. They are keeping the ball and not allowing their porous defense to get involved. The problem is that Marshall's D has been good against the run for the most part outside of last week's loss to FIU. The Thundering Herd have a balanced offense of their own and a better defense between the two. They've won at Cincinnati, Charlotte and Middle Tennessee. The Owls are blitzing opponents so that's a concern here, but they've also beaten up on some of the weaker opponents in this conference. FAU has covered just four of their last 16 home games, but that was when they weren't as good as a team. As long as this stays at 7 or above, I think the road team can keep things close in this one 

The Buccaneers were the preseason chic pick and unfortunately they have not lived up to it. Tampa's two wins were at home against the Bears and the Giants. The defense is not in good form right now allowing 30 points or more three times this season although all of those were on the road. Now they come home in a spot where little is expected of them. Jameis Winston is putting up good numbers through the air although they need to cut down the turnovers. Carolina has lost two straight and Cam Newton is struggling with consistency and answering questions from the media. The defense has been it's typically strong self, but it hasn't been enough during this losing streak. Last year, the Bucs won two close low scoring games forcing seven Carolina turnovers along the way. I don't like to go against the line move because usually those guys are right, but I think we're getting Tampa in a good spot. Carolina is playing their fourth road game this month and I think it catches up to them here.

The mismatch of all mismatches on paper, but this screams situational play with the road team. First off, rain is in the forecast which may play a factor in the playcalling for the Eagles who have been very balanced. Philly is coming off a highly emotional Monday night game against the Redskins and have a bigger test next week against the Broncos. They also lost Jason Peters and Jordan Hicks who are two valuable cogs to the offense and defense. San Francisco has lost five games by three points or less this season and that includes at Seattle, Arizona and Washington. Of concern is the amount of travel that they have done as of late, but I think they get to play an unfocused Eagles team that is hearing how good they are from all angles. As an Eagles fan, I hope this isn't a sweat, but I think it will be.

The Raiders are heading east to play the Bills on Sunday and everyone is back on their bandwagon after the home win last Thursday over the Chiefs. As Lee Corso says, not so fast my friends. That victory snapped a four game losing streak and showed an Oakland team that couldn't run and struggled at times to stop the pass. Marshawn Lynch will miss the contest due to suspension. The Bills have been a huge surprise sitting at 4-2 on the season. They are coming off an impressive comeback win over Tampa Bay at home. Jordan Matthews is getting healthy and giving Tyrod Taylor another weapon. Shady McCoy should have his way in this one against a vulnerable Raiders D. Yes, Buffalo has shown some leaks against the pass allowing their last two opponents to put up over 300 yards through the air, but I think they match up well with Oakland. The money move is with the road team. I think the home team takes this one.

Things couldn't get much worse for Tennessee who has scored just 33 points over their last four contests with three of those at home. John Kelly is suspended at running back and he was one of their best weapons. The passing game has been terrible and the team may have quit on Butch Jones. Kentucky's defense hasn't been great this season, but they've handled teams with lesser weapons. The Wildcats offense has struggled at times. Outside of a 40 point explosion against soft Missouri, they've hovered around 23 points per game. The under has hit in 10 combined games for these two this season. I think the Wildcats offense struggles to move it at times and we get an under. 

The Boilers are glad to be home after a rough trip through Wisconsin and Rutgers. The public is streaming in with money on Nebraska clearly because Purdue lost at Rutgers. What's lost in that game is that while they scored only 12 points, the team racked up nearly 500 yards of offense. They've defended homefield pretty nicely outside of a 28-10 loss to Michigan. The defense has been alright and might be able to force some turnovers of Tanner Lee. Nebraska has lost their last two home games 94-31 against Wisconsin and Ohio State. Their only wins have come against Arkansas State, Rutgers and Illinois. One has to wonder the team's psyche after two weeks hearing how awful they are. Nebraska has covered just 14 of their last 33 games. I'll bet on the home team especially if the line keeps coming down. 

Vandy's coming off a week off and now they play South Carolina who has won three of their last four. The Gamecocks have not exactly been an offensive juggernaut scoring 20 points or less in four of their last five. They don't run it well consistently which is how you take advantage of the Commodores. The numbers are ugly for Vandy's defense, but if you face Alabama, Georgia, Florida and Ole Miss, you'd struggle too. The last two years this game has been played in the teens which means the underdog always has a shot. South Carolina has covered half of their last 16 home games. I think with this number around seven, i'll take the road team who I'll hope will use Ralph Webb early and often. 

Georgia Southern just fired their head coach as they continue to struggle with their offense. On the road, they've lost by 34 to Auburn, 35 to Indiana and 35 at UMass. They have turned the ball over three times or more in three of their last four games. Troy is a monster of a team with two double digit wins including last time out 34-10 at Georgia State. They've got Idaho next at home so I don't see a lookahead factor here. Also, Troy has never beaten Georgia Southern so I think they win this one and win it easily. 

Sparty has won four straight and is looking at a huge game at home against Penn State next week. In between is a road game at Northwestern to play the Wildcats who are coming off a home win over Iowa. MSU is playing their third road game in their last four weeks. The offense hasn't been that great, but the defense has been carrying them. Northwestern has won two straight and will go as Justin Jackson goes on the ground. Their defense has been very good and I'm just not convinced that Michigan State won't have one eye on next week. The Wildcats have covered 10 of their last 16 games as an underdog and 14 of their last 21 Big 10 games. Sparty is 8-15 ATS as a favorite the last three seasons. Give me the home team. 

Colorado State is finally home for conference playing having won four straight. The Rams have had just one home conference game and their offense is rolling. They put up 51 in Hawaii and 44 at home against Nevada. Nick Stevens is doing well under center. The defense is alright and has not had extra time to prepare for the Falcons who are rolling themselves. Air Force has scored 38, 45, 34 and 45 in their last four games. They've scored double digits in the fourth quarter the last few contests as well. The problem is them is that their defense has been pretty bad and will be stressed by a balanced CSU attack. AFA has gone over in five of their seven contests this season while CSU has done so in three of their last five. This series has produced seven overs in their last 10 meetings in Fort Collins. 

Two of the worst teams in the country play just  a week after BYU played ECU in another snoozer. The Cougars have not won a game and have scored just 77 points so far this season. They struggled to move it into the end zone last week at ECU who was allowing 600 yards of offense per game. The Spartans aren't that good defensively either, but why should we gain confidence things will change. I can't imagine this game will have a great atmosphere and that BYU's confidence is that great. San Jose State's offense hasn't been much better although they did score 26 points last week in Hawaii. To me, this is a situation where both teams struggle to move the ball and if they do it will be on the ground where both are vulnerable. The Under has hit in 22 of BYU's last 34 games including six of eight this year. One could consider a potential parlay of the underdog and the under in this one as well. 

The Wahoos came back to earth last week after laying an egg against Boston College. They played terrible in all aspects of the game. Now they need to beat Pittsburgh to get bowl eligibility. The Panthers are coming off a road win at Duke. Their defense is pretty awful allowing over 400 yards per game. The offense has failed to find consistency especially at quarterback. They've already lost to Oklahoma State and NC State at home while struggling to beat Youngstown State there. The Hoos are getting Malcolm Cook back in the lineup and that will strength up the defense. I think Jordan Ellis goes wild and UVA gets the win on Saturday. 

This should be a Big 12 special as the Cowboys take on the Mountaineers. Bedlam is next week so focus could be a bit of an issue in this tough road game. Oklahoma State has put up 50 or more three times already and should be able to do that against West Virginia who has allowed 30 or more in four straight and five of their seven games overall. We hit with the over in the Baylor and Kansas games as the offense did some work, but the defense was like a sieve. The over has hit in all but one Mountaineer game this season. It's very simple, I think both sides get it done offensively and we see a ton of points. 

Boston College has won two straight and three of their last four, but they've struggled against the class of their schedule. They've scored 20 against Notre Dame, 7 against Clemson and 10 against the Hokies. BC wants to grind you out with the run so they don't have to burden Anthony Brown and the passing game. The defense has been good at times this season. On the other side you have a FSU team that's rapidly losing motivation this season. They picked up a tough three point loss at home to Louisville and are now in danger of not even making a bowl game. The offense has struggled with James Blackman under center while the defense has not lived up to it's potential either. The last two seasons we've seen BC score a total of seven points against the Noles. FSU has gone under in nine of their last 12 road games while BC has gone under in 12 of their last 17 at home. Low scoring contest on a Friday night in Chestnut Hill. 

I think we're getting the Broncos in a good spot right here as they go for the season sweep of the Chargers. Denver is coming off a tough performance at home over the Giants where they threw for 366 yards, but three turnovers did them in. The defense was fine although the run did beat them. The Broncos won the season opener between these two 24-21 at home and was able to do so because of a late FG miss. The Chargers have won two straight and now head "home" where they've lost all three games. Los Angeles has played enough defense and gotten enough from Philip Rivers to win these last two. LA has covered just five of their last 19 contests at home and four of their last 14 as a favorite. There's a modest concern about Denver looking ahead to Monday Night in Kansas City next week, but the loss to the Giants may be preventing that.

Just like we all predicted, the Giants got their first victory of the season as a double digit dog in Denver last week. The playcalling duties was taken away from the head coach and that led to a win. The offensive numbers weren't great, but the defense was pretty close to lights out. Eli Manning gets his second straight tough defense this week as Seattle heads east off a bye week. The Seahawks have scored 73 points over two games and 37 over three others so their offense is inconsistent. They have gone Under in 18 of their last 30 games against the rest of the conference. I don't know if the Giants can use smoke and mirrors again this week. I see it being a low scoring game. 

This is the ultimate contrarian play that fits in with this current season's trends. People are completely writing off Green Bay after they lost Aaron Rodgers. Yes, Brett Hundley did not look good against the Vikings, but that was a tough defense on the road. Now he gets a full week to gameplan against a Charmin soft New Orleans defense that is allowing almost 270 yards per game through the air. This might be my favorite play of the weekend. Let's remember that one of the reasons the Saints didn't choke a huge lead to the Lions at home was because of five turnovers forced. That won't happen on the road in Green Bay where the gameplan will be conservative I'm sure. Green Bay's defense has not allowed a single quarterback to throw over 250 yards. The Packers have been a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points just 10 times since 1992 covering seven of those. New Orleans has been a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points just once the last three seasons. I think Green Bay can win it outright, but I'll take the points. 

The Jets nearly knocked off the Patriots at home last week. They did so outgaining New England behind Josh McCown throwing for over 300 yards. New York beat the Dolphins at home 20-6 back in week three by holding them to just 225 yards of total offense. To me, we are slightly over-exaggerating how good the Jets are. Their only road win was by three at Cleveland. Things have normalized a bit for the Dolphins who have won their last two games including a victory in Atlanta. They've been able to use Jay Ajayi and the run game to minimize the impact of Jay Cutler. Miami's defense has played well especially against the run. New York is 5-9-4 in their last 18 road games against the spread. They've been a nice story, but I don't think Sunday goes their way.

Another week and no Andrew Luck for the Colts. He had a setback this week and will not be returning it feels for awhile still. Jacoby Brissett has been playing better, but he will struggle against the Jaguars. Jacksonville is the perfect picture of this 2017 NFL season. They crushed the Ravens overseas, but came home and lost to the Jets. After that, they won in Pittsburgh before falling at home to the Rams. Leonard Fournette has been fantastic and it's taking pressure off Blake Bortles who still isn't very good. The Colts defense was ravaged in Tennessee and now has one less day to prepare for the Jags. The team's home games were three point wins over Cleveland and San Fran to go with a three point loss to the Cardinals. To me, as long as this stays below three, the road team is the way to go.

Boise State has to be flying high after two straight road wins at BYU and San Diego State. Their offense has been solid all season long, but they have struggled throwing the ball. Five of their six games saw them put up less then 250 yards through the air. The defense has been fantastic, but is due for a letdown. Ironically, they've had one of their two worst performances as a group at home against Virginia. Wyoming has won three straight and is coming off a road win at Utah State in which the defense forced five turnovers. The Cowboys need to get more from Josh Allen who has been the much hyped quarterback. The defense has what it takes to keep this game closer then you think. Boise has covered just two of their last 15 at home and 10 of their last 29 as a favorite. I think this one is closer and probably a one score game. 

Baylor continues to look for their first win of the season. There's a chance it comes Saturday against West Virginia. The problem is that the Bears can't stop anyone. Everyone has racked up over 30 points per game except for UTSA in week two. Baylor's offense is starting to perk up a little bit and playing WVU is going to help. They are ranked 111th as a unit and have given up 30 points or more in three straight including 34 to Kansas at their place. The Mountaineers should have no problems scoring or moving the ball on the road. The question is whether there will be a lack of focus with the big home game against Oklahoma State coming up next. This one should see plenty of fireworks and maybe West Virginia has to sweat out a win. 

There are several factors in play for this wager. Wake Forest had two weeks to prepare for Georgia Tech's triple option. They are coming off two close losses to Florida State and Clemson and have their QB and RB healthy for this one. The offense has cooled off after a hot start, but they can go on time consuming drives. Defensively, no one is really going to slow down GT's triple option, but with extra time to prepare, it always helps. The Yellow Jackets are coming off a tough one point loss to Miami and have a road trip to Clemson coming up next week. It's hard to believe that Paul Johnson's team will ever look ahead, but it's something small to consider. Wake has covered 10 of their last 16 in this series. I think they have a shot to keep it close in this one. 

Two of the worst teams in college football play as East Carolina hosts BYU. ECU has one of the worst defenses in the country and has allowed 55 points four times already this season. The only positive I guess you can point to is that they have a decent offense and should be able to put up some points in this one. They managed 31 against South Florida and 41 against UConn already this season. BYU has lost six straight and has scored just 60 points over that span. They can't run it and they can't really throw it well either. The team has managed to put up less then 200 yards per game through the air this seson. Their defense is just as bad in places AND it's their second straight road game after playing poorly at Mississippi State. Two years ago, ECU lost by seven on the road in this series. It's two different teams, but I think the homefield here helps and ECU keeps this thing close. 

It's been fun fading Rice this season as they are one of the worst teams in the country. The Owls have lost four straight scoring just 32 points over that span. The defense has been gouged by most of their opponents outside of two games against UTEP and FIU. UTSA has lost two straight tough games to Southern Miss and North Texas. They are an uber talented team that pounds bad teams. They beat Texas State by 30 on the road and Southern by 34 as a 34.5 point favorite. There's not much analysis needed here. The Roadrunners roll easily.

The Green Wave have their biggest game of the season as South Florida comes to town. Tulane's triple option attack has been tough to stop at home with wins over Grambling, Army and Tulsa. Now USF isn't any of those three teams, but the Green Wave know how to play in front of their fans. The team's defense isn't that terrible outside of a 56 point explosion by Oklahoma on the road. USF has been rolling offensively and it's not even Quentin Flowers throwing it much. This team wants to run the ball and they've been doing that well. The defense is pretty solid although they did allow 31 to ECU and 22 to San Jose State on the road. I think the home team is a live dog in this one. 

North Carolina has lost four straight, all unders as they enter Blacksburg to play Virginia Tech. The Tar Heels offense has scored just 48 points over that span hanging their defense out to dry. This is a team that has been ravaged by injuries and seem like a bunch who are ready to go home. Virginia Tech is coming off a bye week and has an inconsistent offense. They've scored just 40 points the last two weeks and have gone under in four of their last five. The Hokies defense has been awesome allowing just 82 points overall with 55 of those coming against West Virginia and Clemson. They've held down their poorer opponents defensively. Virginia Tech has gone under in 13 of their last 19 ACC games. UNC has gone under in eight of their last 10 in October. This one should be a bit lower scoring. 

Akron has played nothing but unders so far this season and it's either been because of an anemic offensive effort or a fantastic defense. The last few weeks it's been a defense that has held down Troy, Bowling Green, Ball State and Western Michigan. Toledo has bounced back as well now that they are in MAC play. The Rockets have an underrated defense to go along with an offense that moves the ball. Cody Thompson is gone so Logan Woodside has to fin someone new to go along with running back Terry Swanson. Toledo has gone under in 19 of their last 31 games including 14 of their last 23 as a favorite. Akron has gone under in 15 of their last 19 games as an underdog and 14 of their last 19 in the MAC. This line continues to go up so i'll go against the move and go under the total. 

For the first time this season Air Force's secondary will be stressed by the opponent. The most passes they've faced was 27 last week against UNLV. Nevada's Air Raid offense has started to get on track the past few weeks putting up 98 points over their last three. The problem for the home team is the one less day to prepare for Air Force's triple option. The Falcons have played four overs in their six games and have scored 34 or more in three straight. Their defense has had an issue against the run, but Nevada is down to like their fifth or sixth running back. Air Force has gone over in 21 of their last 33 including seven of their last eight as a road favorite. I think this is a last team to hold the ball situation and it's going over the total as well. 

The air surrounding the Steelers right now is not exactly very positive so naturally I think this is a good time to take them on Sunday. Last week, I spent time in this column pointing out how bad of a spot it was against the Jaguars. Now I think it's a good spot for them on the road where they've traditionally struggled. Pittsburgh's defense has played well for the most part this season outside of the effort against the Bears and Jags on the ground. No one has thrown for more then 210 yards against them. KC has the potentially questionable spot in this one with a road game against the Raiders coming up on Thursday night. The Chiefs offense is rolling right now, but the defense has shown some cracks as of late. KC has covered just seven of their last 18 home games. One of those failed covers was last year when they lost outright to these same Steelers. Give me the road team in this one.

The Buccaneers were one of the preseason darlings of the media and they've started 2-2 on the season. Jameis Winston is struggling to connect with DeSean Jackson which has hurt offensive production a bit. Thankfully they fixed the kicker issue after Nick Folk cost them the New England game last Thursday. The defense has been mighty leaky although they are getting some players back for this one. You can't get much lower on Arizona then you are now after their 34-7 loss in Philly. The running game has done next to nothing although Adrian Peterson comes over from New Orleans. Carson Palmer is getting battered behind a porous offensive line. The defense was also beaten up by the Philly air attack. You have to expect some improvement there as this team has way too much talent in the secondary to be that bad. Arizona won this game at home 40-7 last year. It won't be that bad, but I think they win again at home.

It's crazy to think that the winner of this game will be 4-2 on the season and talking about playoffs. Neither had much in the way of expectations from their fans and the media so this is all a big surprise. Sean McVay and Doug Marrone are building really good teams that are finally using their talent in good ways. To me, the Jags are the better team at this moment. Their defense is the difference in slowing down Goff and forcing the Rams to beat them on the ground. The Titans and Jets each gashed the Jags with their run game. I don't see that happening on Sunday. Basically, I think this game is a matchup between two similar squads with questions on the offensive side of the ball and a stout defense. Jared Goff and Blake Bortles are two quarterbacks that are seeing their roles minimized so the mistakes are cut down. The Rams have gone under in 12 of their last 18 road games. I think this is a lower scoring game.

The Falcons are coming off a bye week and are probably hungry to get out on the field after a somewhat embarrassing loss to the Bills at home. Atlanta's offense had three turnovers for the second straight week which is a recipe for losing. Really they should be 2-2 after being gifted a win in Detroit the week before the Buffalo loss. Miami is feeling good after their first win of the season beating Tennessee at home 16-10. The Dolphins offense has been anemic with Jay Cutler under center scoring just 41 points over their first four games. The defense has been the reason for them being in a lot of these ballgames with only one squad cracking the 100 yard rushing mark. All four of Miami's games this season have gone under the total and 17 of their last 23 road contests where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points. To me, I think this is a closer lower scoring game in the ATL.

The Golden Gophers have lost two straight after starting out the year 3-0. They've struggled to slow down Maryland and Purdue who are two of the lesser teams in the conference. The Boilermakers had four turnovers and still won 31-17. Minnesota's quarterback play hasn't been as good so that's probably why they aren't favored. Still, this is a classic trap play as the Spartans are coming off the emotional 14-10 road win at Michigan in which they didn't play that great themselves offensively. Sparty is playing their second straight road game and is coming into a night road atmosphere. Over their last three games, MSU has managed 18, 17 and 14 points. I think this one is a struggle for the road team and the home squad gets back on the winning track.

In what figures to be a defensive struggle, USC is hosting Utah. The Trojans have massive injury woes up front on offense and that will play right into the Utes strength with a very good defensive line. They are holding opponents to just 108 rushing yards per game. Utah's quarterback situation is up in the air for this one so I think the Trojans defense can hold them down as well. USC has gone under in 10 of their last 11 games as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. The underdog could be live in this one, but I think this is a lower scoring game.

FIU is coming off a tough 20 point road loss against Middle Tennessee and now welcomes Tulane to town. The Golden Panthers defense allowed almost 350 yards on the ground to Charlotte so I think the Green Wave should be able to move the ball well. FIU's offense will be able to move the ball with Thomas Owens out wide. Tulane's focus could be an issue with USF coming to town next week. They've been scoring the ball well against lesser defenses who havent seen their style before. FIU has gone over in eight of their last 14 home games. Tulane has gone over in six of their last eight games as a favorite. I think this one goes over.

Southern Miss hosts UTEP in a mismatch on Saturday. The Miners have not won a game this year and are coming off a tough one point loss at home to Western Kentucky. They've gone through a coaching change already and have had issues on both sides of the ball. Quadraiz Wadley is questionable with a knee injury and he represents UTEP's best shot at moving the ball. Southern Miss has not really had a game where it can flex it's muscles yet this season. They won 31-29 at Texas San Antonio in a contest that saw them show some real balance. They do have a road game against Louisiana Tech, but UTEP is so bad that even a half focused home team wins easily. Rice has covered just 13 of their last 30 games overall. I think this one gets real ugly.

It has not been a bad first season back to football for the Blazers who are 3-2 and are coming off a home win over Louisiana Tech as a 9.5 point underdog. The offense has shown it can ground and pound opponents as it's racked up over 150 rushing yards four times already. The team's defense isn't great, but for the most part, MTSU has been real sketchy with Brett Stockstill and Richie James hurt. The Blue Raiders are coming off a 20 point home win over FIU while a Friday night tilt with Marshall awaits them next week. I think UAB can win this one outright potentially.

Georgia Tech is flying high off a three game win streak and a bye week. The offense is clicking right now and the defense is showing up in a big way. They are kinda flying under the radar right now with a lot of the talk centering on Virginia Tech and Miami. This is a rare time when the defense matches the offense in terms of talent and success. Miami is coming off an emotional road win at Florida State 24-20, but will do so without several starters. Mark Walton is out for the season while NaVaughn Donaldson, Dee Delaney and Sheldrick Redwine are also on the sidelines for this one. The Canes have dominated this series as of late, but I like the Yellow Jackets to keep it close.

There are a lot of trends that support the under in this one. CMU has gone under in 13 of their last 17 games as an underdog and 19 of their last 32 overall. The Chips offense isn't that good as they've scored just 65 points over their last four games. The defense hasn't been that bad as of late as they have done well against BC and Ohio. Toledo's offense has cooled off a little and may struggle without Cody Thompson out wide. He was their number one receiver. The Rockets defense has had their issues, but not against their lesser opponents. Toledo has gone under in eight of their last 12 road games and five of their last six as a road favorite. I think that this one is a lower scoring game.

Florida State's season is spiraling out of control after they gave up a late touchdown to Miami to lose at home. Now they have to pick up the pieces and head to Duke to play a Blue Devils team that has lost two straight. FSU doesn't have a ton to play for right now other then the development of their young quarterback. The defense played well until that last drive against the Canes. Duke's not feeling great right now either as their hot start has cooled off a bit. Still, their offense has some weapons and as long as we can get the hook, I think they can keep it within a score. One has to wonder what's going on in Tallahassee.

The Hoosiers get Michigan at home this weekend after the Wolverines gagged away a game at home against their rival Michigan State.  One has to wonder what the team's mindset is especially since the offense is kinda broken right now. John O'Korn couldn't beat Wilton Speight who was already struggling. Yes, Indiana's defense isn't great, but there's not a lot you can count on with Michigan. Thankfully, their defense has been great allowing just 213 total yards per game. The Wolverines are just 14-14 ATS in their last 28 games as a favorite. I'm considering a parlay of Indiana and the under. The Hoosiers are in a better spot right now with clearer heads.

The Hoosiers get Michigan at home this weekend after the Wolverines gagged away a game at home against their rival Michigan State.  One has to wonder what the team's mindset is especially since the offense is kinda broken right now. John O'Korn couldn't beat Wilton Speight who was already struggling. Yes, Indiana's defense isn't great, but there's not a lot you can count on with Michigan. Thankfully, their defense has been great allowing just 213 total yards per game. The Wolverines are just 14-14 ATS in their last 28 games as a favorite. I'm considering a parlay of Indiana and the under. The Hoosiers are in a better spot right now with clearer heads.

West Virginia's secondary is going to get their first stiff test of the season from Texas Tech. The Mountaineers have put up good numbers in the back end but that's because of their opponents so far. ECU threw it 47 times for 328 yards, but everyone else has been doing their work on the ground. West Virginia's offense has cracked the 50 point mark three times this season. They should be able to do it again against a Texas Tech defense that struggled with Arizona State and Oklahoma State and those games were at home. To me, this one seems like a last team to have the ball wins type of game. Both teams want to play with some pace so there will be plenty of possessions as well.

It's a rematch of last year's spectacular 34-31 Packers road playoff win that sent the Cowboys packing. Both quarterbacks had good games in that one and both could do so in this one again. Dallas is coming off a 35-30 home loss to the Rams and that one featured the best ground game effort they've had this season. Green Bay's defense is putting up good numbers although it did not show up in Atlanta in a 34-23 loss in week two. The one thing we do know is that Aaron Rodgers will pick apart this banged up secondary. Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb have had their fun in this series. These two have played 10 of their last 11 meetings to the over in Dallas. The Cowboys have also gone over in 11 of their last 19 home games.

The Rams, as mentioned above, are putting up some awesome offensive numbers including 35.5 points per contest. The problem as I see it is that they've done it against some bad defenses in Indy, Washington, San Fran and Dallas. The Seahawks won't be as easy to move the ball on with their secondary and stiff pass rush. Seattle has held down everyone other then Tennessee this season. Their problem has come on the offensive side of the ball where trying to find a run game has hurt. Chris Carson is done so it's back to Thomas Rawls, Eddie Lacy and CJ Prosise. The Rams have been gashed on the ground as a group so we could see ball control from the Seahawks. These two have played three straight lower scoring games although under a different LA regime. The Rams have gone under in 21 of their last 36 games.

The Oakland Raiders turn to EJ Manuel under center as they host the Ravens. Reports say that Marshawn Lynch will get a heavy workload due to the quarterback change. The offense has gone dry as of late with 10 points in each of their last two contests. The thing is that their defense has kept them in ballgames and should be able to have success against Baltimore who has scored just 16 points the last two weeks against Jacksonville and Pittsburgh. Baltimore's defense has not been good the last two weeks, but doesnt have as much of a challenge. They've gone under in 10 of their last 16 games as an underdog. I think this one is lower scoring. 

The Bills have been one of the best stories in football so far as they've already beaten the Broncos and Falcons this season. They are doing so with a mediocre offensive attack led by Tyrod Taylor and Shady McCoy. The defense has been fantastic despite the offseason moves. Cincinnati is coming off a road win at Cleveland and may have found an offensive spark. Joe Mixon is getting more work and AJ Green is getting more involved under the new OC. Cincy's defense has been fantastic this year with only one opponent throwing for even close to 300 yards. To me, we're giving a lot of respect to the Bills who are playing their third road contest over the last four weeks. I think the Bengals win this one by a touchdown or more.

Washington is outscoring opponents by an average of almost 35 points this season. They've done so with balanced running and passing. The Huskies also play some fantastic defense holding opponents to just 256 yards per game. That's something we cannot say for their opponent as California struggles against the pass. They've allowed 30 points or more three times this season and figure to do so again on the road against a Washington team that needs style points. California will score though as they've done on pretty much everyone this season. Heck, Fresno State put up 16 on the Huskies just a few weeks ago. Washington won this game on the road 66-27 last year and lost at home 30-24 in 2015. The Huskies do most of the heavy lifting here but we get our over. 

Missouri's uptempo offense has been a bit of a failure after the opening week scoring just 30 points total at home against South Carolina, Purdue and Auburn. Kentucky's defense has been their strength for the most part outside of some mental breakdowns against Florida. The offense has been mighty consistent too scoring 24, 27, 23, 27, 24. They'll play a little ball control to keep it away from Missou most likely. The Tigers defense has been pretty bad, but maybe the bye week helped them figure some things out in terms of stopping the run. These two have played four unders in their last five meetings. Last year they saw a 70 total and the score ended up being 35-21. Missouri has gone under in 19 of their last 28 games including eight of 10 on the road. I think this number is a little high.

The young Hokies are coming off an emotional home game against Clemson and now head to sleepy Chestnut Hill for a matchup with BC. The Eagles have covered seven of their last 12 at home in this series and 15 of their last 25 overall. They are coming off a 28-8 win at home over CMU. BC's offense is pedestrian at best, but their defense has shown flashes of brilliance. To me, this is a tough game for Virginia Tech to get hyped for. The offense has to prove it can move the ball without Cam Phillips who will continue to be the number one target for defenses. I think the Hokies win but this is a big ask. They are just 6-6 against the spread in their last 12 road games. 

I like FAU and am pleased with their progress in terms of my over for the season win total, but I don't know about being road favorites by this much in this one. The Monarchs are coming off a bye week after getting trounced by two ACC opponents. They are also getting healthier after 49 players were injured entering the bye week. They are getting Jeremy Cox back and Melvin Vaughn who are two key pieces to the offense. It's also some time to get their 17 year old QB prepped for conference play and now he's getting a defense that can be beaten. FAU beat MTSU at home in a game that saw them face the Blue Raiders without their QB and their best WR. This is an Owls team that lost at Buffalo in September 34-31 and I'd put this ODU team on par with them. Yes, the Monarchs havent been that impressive this year, but they are still home, still have a good coach and still should be able to move the ball. FAU is 2-8 ATS the last 11 games as a favorite and 9-19 in their last 29 overall.

It's time for one of my favorite wagers and that's the under in a game involving the academies. These two teams run pretty close to the same style of offense meaning we'll see a ton of runs and less possessions. The Under has hit in 11 of their last 13 meetings including five of six at Navy. When the Navy faced Tulane it was a 23-21 score that went under the total. The Falcons and Midshipmen practice against this all the time so they won't be fazed by it. Quite simply, the under in an academy game is one of the best bets on the board usually. 

The big rivalry game that isn't getting as much publicity is Miami vs. Florida State. The Hurricanes are 3-0 and are steamrolling teams right now on offense. They beat up Toledo and Duke the last two times out and are getting their best defensive challenge in Florida State. Finally the Seminole D showed up and slowed down Wake Forest. The offense has been the issue for the home team as they can't get much going with James Blackman at QB. The Canes can be beaten defensively as Duke ran for 183 yards and Toledo put up 344 through the air. It's a rivalry game and very little is expected of FSU so as long as you can get three points, I'd take the home team. This one will be tough. 

 Appalachian State welcomes New Mexico State to town on Saturday. The Mountaineers are coming off a tough home loss to Wake Forest and then a bye week. They have a very good offense that has shown up just once so far this season in a 54-7 win over Savannah State. The Aggies won't provide a ton of resistence considering they've been gashed by pretty much everyone they've played. Luckily this squad has an offense that is clicking big time under Tyler Rogers. They scored 31 at Arizona State and 24 at Arkansas. Even in garbage time, NM State has been good in putting it in the end zone. They've gone over in 15 of their last 25 games as an underdog and 17 of their last 29 overall. I think this one is played potentially in the high 20s low 30s. 

Penn State has been fantastic this season, but they are about to head into the toughest stretch of the season. It starts with a sleepy road trip to play Northwestern in Evanston. The Nits rely on Saquon Barkley on the ground as Trace McSorley is not throwing it as much. The offense has been very good for the most part and the defense has been too. Northwestern is a pest with Justin Jackson running it and the offense doing enough to move the sticks. They played well in Wisconsin last time out and have the defense to make things a little difficult. Northwestern won this game at home two years ago 23-21. The Wildcats have covered 10 of their last 15 games as an underdog. Penn State has covered just three of their last 10 on the road. I think Northwestern can make this close.

Eastern Michigan gets their first taste of a potent offense as they travel to the Glass Bowl to play Toledo. EMU has had a murderers row of Charlotte, Rutgers, Ohio and Kentucky. They've played close low scoring games with all of them, but have struggled to do so with Toledo. The Rockets have been railing opponents outside of their loss to Miami two weeks ago. Toledo has put up 47, 37, 54 and 30 in their four contests. The bye week came at a good time and should refresh them entering this one. Logan Woodside is one of the best QBs in the country that no one is talking about. He's got a littany of weapons led by Cody Thompson. Last year Toledo won 35-20 on the road on this series with a home win two years ago of 63-20. They are 13-6 ATS since 1992 against EMU. I think they blitz EMU in their second straight road game. 

I usually don't like to play a team on the road taking on an option squad, but Tulsa is in a good situation right now as they enter to play Tulane. The Golden Hurricane have played New Mexico and Navy the last two weeks and their rushing attack. Yes, they lost both games and were gashed on the ground, but the prep will help them against Tulane who also wants to run the ball. You could say they had three weeks or so to get ready for the Green Wave. The Golden Hurricane's offense has been fantastic too this season especially on the ground. Tulane is coming off a bye week and before that they allowed 371 yards rushing to Army. This game has been moved up to an early start time due to the weather so will fans stay away as well? Tulsa has dominated this series winning by double digits the majority of the time. They have covered 11 of their last 14 road games and I think they do so here too. 

This has not been a good season for BYU who has lost four straight since an underwhelming 20-6 win over Portland State. The Cougars have had their problems offensively with just 63 points scored in five games. They can't throw it and have used multiple quarterbacks already. BYU's defense hasn't been that bad though outside of the Wisconsin and Utah State games. Even then it's not like the Aggies did much as they forced seven turnovers. Boise State's offense has been inconsistent too although they have two weeks to prepare wrinkles for their rival. The BSU defense can play well against an opponent with an offense that's not that great. BYU has gone under in 19 of their last 31 games including eight of their last 15 at home. To me, this one will be a low scoring affair on Friday night. 

I think Vegas continues to underrate the Broncos for some reason as I thought this line should have been a little higher. They were home underdogs to the Cowboys back in week two and won that one easily. Yes, Denver lost last week, but it was a tough situation and they'll bounce back nicely here. Oakland's offensive line was exposed by a very mediocre Washington front line last week and Denver's is a lot better. The Broncos secondary is better then the Skins as well so that could mean more trouble for Derek Carr. He had just 96 yards passing in the loss to the Redskins. Denver's offense has shown it can run it and pass it as well with Trevor Siemian under center. Last year, the Broncos won this game 24-6 at home. We could see a similar score in this one. Oakland's defense doesn't scare me and I'll continue to look to fade this team when I can. 

The Giants fell short once again in their quest for their first win of the season. Now they hit the road to play the Bucs who were undressed in Minnesota. New York found some offense in the form of a healthy Odell Beckham Jr. They still can't run it and won't expect to do so against the Tampa front seven. New York's defense continues to be stout and should be able to clamp down on the Buccaneers attack. Jameis Winston has been inconsistent in two games so far. He's still working on getting chemistry with some of his weapons. The loss of Lavonte David isn't good for the home team. Still, I think this one is an under.

A pair of winless teams in the AFC Central play in Cleveland. The Browns were road favorites last time out, but fell short by three in Indianapolis. Still, DeShone Kizer played pretty well in that game and is starting to show some improvement. If Cleveland can cut down on their turnovers (8 in the last two games), then I think they'll play better. Defensively, they've held two teams under 100 yards rushing and all three opponents to under 300 yards passing. Cincinnati lost a tough one in overtime to Aaron Rodgers last time out. Their offense has been anemic for the most part which caused the firing of their previous offensive coordinator. Marvin Lewis also spent part of the week cracking jokes about Jake Elliott who has more FGs then he has wins. Cincy has not impressed me at all this year.

The Texans are coming off a tough loss at New England last time out and are starting a three game homestand against division rival Tennessee. Deshaun Watson is getting better and better as a signal caller and that makes the team's run game even more dangerous. Defensively, Houston has been stout for the most part outside of Tom Brady's big game last week. Tennessee is 2-1, having won two straight after losing to Oakland. Marcus Mariota just hasn't put it all together since his late flourish last year. Last year, the home team won each game in this series. The Titans have failed to cover in 18 of their last 26 in conference and 11 of their last 14 against teams with a losing record. 

We get some value on the home team now that they are without starting quarterback Sam Bradford. Case Keenum is no slouch and he's coming off throwing for 369 yards in a win over Tampa Bay. The Vikings have a fantastic homefield advantage and a great defense to use that to their advantage. The Lions are a tough team who is 2-1 on the season so far and arguably should be 3-0. We'll see if there's any sort of hangover after the NFL's latest mess-up involving a Detroit game. The Lions still can't really run the ball despite trying to commit to it. Stafford has the advantage here, but I like the Vikings weapons a little bit more. Minnesota lost both games to these Lions last year so revenge is on their minds as well. Minnesota has covered in 11 of their last 14 dome games. I think they are the better team and the line doesn't seem right. 

A pair of solid teams are in action as the Aztecs host the Huskies. NIU has played three unders this season with their ball control offense and a solid defense. They want to run the ball and keep it away from their opponent. The NIU defense has held their three opponents in check on the ground although none are as good as San Diego State. The Aztecs have sprung some leaks defensively on the ground, but still are a very good group. To me, this one might as well be played with a running clock. NIU has gone under in eight of their last 12 games as an underdog. I think we get a solid low scoring close game.

In the highlight of the slate, Virginia Tech is hosting Clemson. Both of these teams have put up pretty good numbers on offense and have been very stingy on defense. The Tigers have clamped down on their four opponents including Lamar Jackson. Virginia Tech has put up nice numbers against lesser opponents this season and Josh Jackson has been good but not yet challenged. He's locked in on Cam Phillips who I'd have to think will be up on the gameplan for Clemson. I think the Hokies can stay in this game, but only if it's a lower scoring contest. Even if Virginia Tech doesn't have the offensive success, I think they can hold the Tigers down. Virginia Tech has gone under in 11 of their last 17 ACC games. I think this one is a little high. 

Ohio State has scored 107 points in their last two games against Rutgers. The Buckeyes have been pounding their lesser opponents so far this season putting up 54 on UNLV and 49 on Indiana. The reason why we like the over here is because I think Rutgers can contribute here. I'm not expecting much considering the Scarlet Knights scored only 14 against Washington and 17 against Nebraska. Rutgers has shown some good defense, but I think they'll struggle to stop Ohio State. To me, this is a situation where we'll see like a 49-7 type game. 

Charlotte is going to be overmatched in quite a few of their games this season. They average just 11.2 points per game and 289.2 total yards of offense. The 49ers lost by 17 at EMU and by 48 at Kansas State. They've also gotten shut out at home by Georgia State 28-0. Turnovers have been an issue with the team committing 11 of them in four games. Defensively, they don't match up well with FIU who has some veteran talent and is feeling good after a solid win at Rice 13-7. The defense has clamped down on the run and is solid against the pass as well. Charlotte is 0-4 ATS this season and 7-17 ATS the last three years overall. Charlotte could be on the fade list all year long. 

I usually don't like laying this many points, but this is a complete mismatch. UTEP is 0-4 on the season scoring just 51 points in losses to Oklahoma, Rice, Arizona and New Mexico State. They've struggled against the run which is what Army stresses. The Miners have had quarterback issues and don't really do anything right. Army will pound away at you and is glad to be home after tough losses at Ohio State and Tulane. They crushed Fordham 64-6 in week one and could do the same in this one. Last year on the road they won 66-14 at UTEP in a game that saw them run for 419 yards. UTEP has covered just one of their last 12 games in September. This one could be very very ugly.

NC State shocked the ACC by going into Tallahassee and knocking off Florida State. Syracuse nearly did the same as they hung tough with LSU down in Death Valley. If you look at the stats, the teams are pretty similar being separated by three yards per game on offense and 21 yards per game on defense. For all the talk about the Orange's defensive struggles, they have actually given up less yards then the Pack. To me, this is a prime spot to fade the team out of Raleigh. They've got to be feeling so good after the win and focus could be an issue. NC State has covered just seven of their last 15 home games. Syracuse covered against them in 2015 in Raleigh losing by 13 as 18.5 point underdogs. I think the Orange can keep this one close.

The Commodores probably won't leave receivers completely open which will make things harder for Florida to score. The Gators offense is still looking for a quarterback and some consistency. The numbers look alright outside of the seven turnovers that side of the ball has produced. Vandy's defense has been very good outside of the Alabama game. Their offense has also improved greatly. Ralph Webb is keeping defenses honest while Kyle Shurmur is playing better under center. The big question is if they are mentally fragile right now after getting undressed by the Crimson Tide. UF has covered in just 13 of their last 30 games. To me, this is  low scoring affair that the Commodores hang around in. 

It's been a rough year for the Panthers who should be able to get some frustrations out this week on Rice. The Owls average 12 points per game and 121.8 yards through the air per contest. They lost by 55 to Stanford, 35 to Houston and by 6 to FIU. The defense has been an issue against their better opponents. Pittsburgh's only win was by 7 over Youngstown State then they got blasted by three straight good opponents. Giving up over 400 yards to the triple option of Georgia Tech as well as almost 600 yards through the air to Oklahoma State would skew the numbers. I really think the Panthers should win this one easily. Rice isn't going to beat too many teams on their schedule. 

The Redskins head home after a very good trip out west. They found a run game and some resiliency to win under some adversity. We still haven't seen the good Kirk Cousins yet and he may find that against a vulnerable Oakland secondary. The Raiders’ defense is still an issue, but they haven't faced anyone yet to take advantage of it. The Skins’ secondary with Josh Norman and Bashaud Breeland will be a good matchup against Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. Marshawn Lynch could struggle against a Skins D that has done well against the run thus far. Oh yeah, Oakland has to play Denver in Week 4 and that game means just a bit more. Washington is 15-8 ATS the last three years as an underdog. I think the Redskins are a live dog in this one.

This is one of those hold your nose situational plays. The Steelers are not as good on the road as they are at home. If you look at the splits for Ben Roethlisberger and this offense, this team just isn't as strong away from Pittsburgh. The Steelers beat the Browns in Cleveland in Week 1, eking out a 21-18 victory. Looming is another divisional clash with the archrival Ravens, so focus could be an issue. Chicago is 0-2 with one good game and one bad one. The Bears hung tough with the Falcons at home before getting blasted by the Buccaneers on the road. The defense has put up some respectable numbers as Vic Fangio continues to do good work. Chicago has covered in five of six and 19 of its last 28 games as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. Three of Pittsburgh's last four games before Baltimore have been decided by one score. As long as this stays at seven or above, I'm taking Chicago.

This is another situational play although we're going to approach it a little differently. Denver is coming off two wins at home over the Chargers and Cowboys. They have played some incredible defense clamping down on both rushing attacks. The Broncos are also staring at an important home game against Oakland on Monday night in Week 4. But first is a trip to Buffalo against a Bills team that doesn’t seem to have much going for it this season. They beat a bad Jets team barely in Week 1 and managed just 176 yards of offense in a 9-3 loss at Carolina. Buffalo's defense has played well both weeks and may continue that against a potentially unfocused Denver team. I think you see where I'm heading as the defenses in this one keep the offenses down. Denver has gone under in 21 of its last 37 games including 15 of their last 23 as a favorite. I don't think I can take Buffalo but the under will do.

I think the Giants are in a prime spot to keep things close as Odell Beckham and Janoris Jenkins look to be healthy. The Eagles secondary is terribly banged up and that's a group that's already pretty bad as it is. Yes, there's some worry about the offensive line holding up against the Philly pass rush, but in the past they've given Eli quick throws to make. Philly has dominated this series as of late. I don't know how their offense does against a Giants defense that could play better. To me, this is an overreaction to records. The Eagles have failed to cover in 15 of their last 25 games in conference. I think New York could win this outright.