My favorite play in the Super Bowl is the first quarter under. When you look at the Super Bowl, you see these teams thrown off a bit because of the longer pregame and the longer commercial breaks. Football players are creatures of habit so it may take some time for both sides to get into a rhythm. In my scenario, San Francisco receives the ball and goes on a time consuming drive leaving Kansas City very little time for a rebuttal. As long as both teams don't score TD's I think we're good. I like it less if it's 10, but at 10.5 points fire away.

Let's take a look at the history of the Super Bowl and 1st quarters
SB 53 -- 0-0
SB 52 -- 9-3 (in a game that finished 41-33)
SB 51 -- 0-0 (in a game that finished 34-28)
SB 50 -- 10-0
SB 49 -- 0-0 (in a game that finished 28-24)
SB 48 -- 8-0 (in a game that finished 43-8)
SB 47 -- 7-3 (in a game that finished 34-31)
SB 46 -- 9-0

So as you can see, a lot of teams have taken their time getting into a rhythm. If you wanted to protect yourself against this wager, I recommend looking into the bets that say "Score in first 5.5 minutes of game" or something like that. If you can find a plus price, then you can somewhat hedge my bet. The best case scenario would be a FG early on and there's a chance you win both. William Hill has "YES" points in first 5.5 mins at +120. Of course there's a chance no one scores in that span and you could lose both, in which case maybe expand the bet a little to 6.5 or 7.5 minutes, but be weary of the price and losing value.

As a bonus with this play, I'm going to give you my thoughts on the props. Some of these are going to be around -110 or so while others will be long shots. Check these out when looking at your prop sheets.

Other Prop Quick Hits:
- "YES, Both Teams with a 35 yard or longer FG prop" -- Love taking this one especially if it's at plus money in a lot of books. I think there will be some field goals and it doesn't look like weather will be an issue.
- "No INT for Jimmy G" especially if it's at plus money. He may not have to throw it enough to be in peril here.
- "49ers First points are a FG" -- Take this at a plus price.
- "First Penalty is an offensive or defensive holding" -- This one is 13/5 on William Hill. Since we are combining both, I think there's a decent shot especially if someone tries to prevent Tyreek Hill from going long.
- "Kyle Juszczyk to score a TD" -- This one's my favorite LONG SHOT so go lightly as he's only had 3 carries and 20 receptions, but I have a feeling that there's a touchdown in his future. If anyone has a reception prop involving the fullback AND it's at a plus price, consider taking the over if it's 0.5 or 1. I think he has one which will give you a push or a win.

With regards to the cross sport props, here's one I like from the Westgate:

Trae Young -0.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists vs. Emmanuel Sanders receiving yards -- Trae Young is taking on the Mavericks and is coming off a tremendous effort against the Sixers where he had 39 pts, 18 assists and 6 rebounds. He averages 28.3 ppg, 4.2 rpg and 9 apg on the road which is good for around 41. Emmanuel Sanders just hasn't been part of the game plan the past few weeks. He's more of the possession type receiver and I think Bourne and Deebo Samuel are more involved. Take a shot with Young out-performing Sanders yards.

Right now Temple shouldn't be double digit favorites over anyone. Yes, ECU is 9-12, 3-5 in the American, but there's a little bit of talent there. They have had some rough road efforts as of late, but they also lost by six at Wichita State on New Year's Day. Temple has been absolutely hideous shooting the ball. They are 328th in two point field goal percentage and 207th in three point field goal percentage. This team has already lost home games to Houston, Tulane and Cincy in conference play to along with a loss to Missouri there as well. They've scored 65 or less in seven of their last nine games. I'm fading the Owls here until they figure things out which may never happen.

There's probably a trap here, but I'll bite as North Florida hosts Kennesaw State. The Owls are 1-20 and have been getting smashed on the road. They are coming off an 83-45 loss at Liberty and have also lost by 18, 22 and 12 in conference away from home. The Ospreys won the first meeting on the road 76-57 and that's with them making only seven three pointers. KSU is shooting 39.6% from two point land and 25.6% from long range. The Ospreys have won six of their last eight games and at home they are coming off a 13 point win over Stetson. I just think this will be a blowout on Saturday.

I'm not going to step in front of the Hampton over train now as they had the week off to prepare for Presbyterian. Hampton's last seven scores are 92-85, 83-73, 83-80, 116-95, 88-86, 83-74 and 83-79. Jermaine Marrow's return has been big for the offense as he has possession of the ball in 35.4% of their possessions and has taken 37.4% of their shots. This team plays very little defense and it doesn't matter if you are slow or not, you will go. Last time out, they managed to push Radford a bit in a 69 possession game and the Highlanders are one of the slowest teams in terms of pace in the country. Presbyterian is 8-14 and relatively underwhelming offensively. They are rather hideous on defense though so I think Hampton could do a lot of the heavy lifting. The Blue Hose are coming off a 77-74 home loss to USC Upstate. This is one of those instabets right now until Vegas adjusts.

William and Mary is 16-7, 8-2 in the CAA and is looking for a season sweep of Hofstra. The Tribe crushed them at their place 88-61 back on January 2nd in a game that saw Nathan Knight pick up another double double. His size along with Andy Van Vliet was too much for the home team. Since then they've gone 6-2 with an offense that is really efficient. Last game they beat Northeastern 59-58 after Knight went the length of the court to get the win. Hofstra is also 16-7 and they've gone 5-2 since the loss to WM. They have an efficient offense and are the 12th best FT shooting squad. This team has seen some high scoring games on the road where they don't seemingly mind playing with some pace. I'll take the over here.

Ohio has lost five of six and six of their last eight, but there's been a lot of close losses as they head to Ball State. The Bobcats have lost six of those games by single digits with the last one coming 61-59 at NIU. This team shoots it pretty well from the field and has an efficient offense. They have road wins at St. Bonaventure, Iona and Eastern Michigan already this season. Ball State has lost three of their last five games and it's because of an offense that has struggled as of late. They've scored less than 70 four of their last five and six of their last eight. The Cardinals have the better defense, but are vulnerable from long range.

The Roadrunners are one of the bigger disappointments in college basketball, but because of that we are getting a good value on them. This team is 10-11, 4-4 in the C-USA and has won four of their last six. At home, they have just one loss and it was an odd one to end November when they fell to Prairie View 79-72. They've smoked teams there with every victory being by double digits. Keaton Wallace and Jhivvan Jackson are a ridiculous backcourt that is dying for some help. These two are great FT shooters and will have the ball a ton when it matters. The problems come on the defensive side of the ball where they are absolutely hideous. Now at home they have held all but two of their opponents to 70 points or less which is huge because they are capable of putting up 80 easily. UAB is 12-9, 3-5 in Conference USA and they struggle to shoot 3s and turn the ball over way too much. This team has a road win at Troy and one at FAU so far this season, but they've also lost at Charlotte, ODU and FIU in conference play. There's no denying the Blazers defense but the Golden Panthers did put up 93 at home on them. I think we're getting an inconsistent team at a cheap price at home in a matchup they should win on Thursday. 

Fort Wayne tries to snap a four game losing streak at home as they host North Dakota. These two teams played back on January 5th with the home team winning 83-69. The Dons have one of the worst defenses in the country allowing opponents to shoot almost 54% from two and 37.3% from three. At home they've given up 92, 70 and 59 in three conference games. North Dakota's opponents take just 15.7 seconds to get their possessions done which is the 5th fastest in the country. They don't force turnovers and also allow teams to shoot well from long range. If it's a close game, the Fighting Hawks are 6th in the country in FT%. On the road they've allowed 83, 87, 88 and 71 in conference. Now this offense has scored 70 or more in three straight and six of their last eight. I think this one is an over. 

I see that once again the total has moved down here and this time I'm not scared of it. If you look at the last matchup, you saw the Tribe won 66-64 in Boston, but that was in Mathews Arena which is a giant hockey stadium with odd sight-lines. The other thing about that contest was that there were only just seven free throws attempted so we know that number will be higher in Virginia. William and Mary out-rebounded the Huskies 34-25 in that one and continue to dominate with their twin towers. Both of these teams are ridiculously efficient on offense. Northeastern is 4th best in FT shooting and three point shooting and 33rd best from two point land. On defense they are 323rd against two point shots which will be an issue against the Tribe. WM is 17th best from 2 pt land and 39th from three point land. Someone has reached 70 points in all but two games in Williamsburg. Give me the over here. 

San Jose State is 7-14, 3-6 in the Mountain West as they travel to Boise State. The Spartans average over 72 possessions per game which is 26th fastest in the country. Opponents have the 12th shortest offensive possessions against them as they are 285th in effective FG% defense. San Jose State has allowed 86, 98, 79 and 89 in their last four road games. Yes, their offense is pretty awful, but at least the pace is conducive to plenty of shots. They are coming of a 90-81 win at home against Air Force so there are some good feelings here. Boise State has a top 100 tempo as well and an offense that is shooting nearly 53% from two point land. The Broncos at home have scored 88, 73, 65, 103 and 100 in their last five games there. They also have a little bit of an issue on defense allowing teams to shoot nearly 54% from two point land. They gave up 83 to Utah State, San Diego State and Nevada already in conference play and 85 to Air Force as well. I see plenty of points in this game. 

Monmouth has won four straight and 10 of their last 12 as they travel to St. Peter's. The Hawks have won three road games over this stretch at Princeton, Manhattan and Iona. Their offense is pretty hot right now scoring 70 or more in eight of their last nine games. They do it with an attack that is 46th best at shooting the three. St. Peter's has lost four of their last six including a home game against Canisius. This team turns it over in over 25% of their offensive possessions and are 351st in two point shooting at 41.1% from the field. Shaheen Holloway's bunch isn't terrible at defense and that's what keeps them in it along with a slower pace. I just don't think there's a great homecourt advantage and Monmouth is just the better team. Give me the underdog here. 

I like the Colonials tonight to make things interesting. They have won three of their last four after a four game losing streak. Upon closer review on that losing skid they fell by five to both St. Bonaventure and Duquesne at home. They also lost by five ironically at St. Louis. GW's offense is in better form right now and their defense has held six straight opponents to less than 70 points. This team plays very good D against the three pointer. Davidson has been one of the most disappointing teams in the country at 10-9, but they've won three straight. The team got healthy at Fordham and then dispatched St. Louis and George Mason at home. Outside of Axel-Gudmundsson and Grady, there aren't a ton of threats as this just isn't a deep team. I think GW can make things interesting here at home. 

Furman is 10-2 since a two game losing streak in early December and they host VMI on Wednesday. These two played in Lexington on New Year's Day and the road team won 89-73 over the Keydets. These Paladins are the 4th best two point shooting team in the country hitting 56.8% of their shots inside the arc. In conference play this team has put up 65 on ETSU with their slower pace, 73 on UNC Greensboro, 83 on Western Carolina and 101 on Samford. Furman is 332nd in two point defense themselves so you can score on them. VMI shot almost 55% from two in their loss earlier in the year. The Keydets are 1-9 since starting the year 5-7. Their offense has been pretty weak, but their defense hasn't been good either. They gave up 91 at USC Upstate and 73 at Mercer. This team wants to shoot a ton of threes. I don't know if we'll see the 162 points in Lexington, but I think it'll go over in this one. 

This is the classic case of a potent offense vs. a potent defense. The Hoyas have lost five of their last seven since a 10-3 start to the year. They have scored 80 points or more at home in every game except a random 65-61 loss to UNC Greensboro in late November. The Hoyas go as Mac McClung and Omer Yurtseven go as they are the best two players. There's some other talent there with Jamorko Pickett, Jagan Mosely and Terrell Allen. Butler is playing at one of the slowest paces in the country and has the 22nd best adjusted efficiency defense. They've struggled in their last two road games on that side of the ball giving up 76 to Nova and 79 to DePaul. Still, this offense is so good too that I think even if it got to be a higher scoring game, that they should be able to score plenty. Georgetown home overs are almost instabet at this point. 

Bowling Green has won six in a row entering this matchup with Ball State at home. The Falcons turn the ball over the least of anyone in the country. They don't exactly force a ton of TOs themselves, but their defensive strength is on the inside where they are holding teams to just 46.3% from two point land. BG's only home loss came in the first game of this month against Kent State 79-61. Justin Turner's return to the lineup makes things so much better for them on both sides of the ball. Ball State is 11-8 and has split their last four games. The Cardinals are 3-3 away from home with the road wins being Illinois-Chicago, Georgia Tech and Eastern Michigan. Ball State's defense is a lot stronger inside than their opponent and is slightly better offensively which is why this is only a one point spread. I like the Falcons. I think they are the better team here especially at home. 

Bakersfield has won six of their last eight including three in a row as they host Seattle. The Roadrunners are doing it on the defensive end holding five of their last seven opponents to 65 points or less. The team does have a problem against three point shooters, but at home, they've done pretty well as of late. Yes, they lost to Cal Baptist there, but I'm just not that impressed by Seattle. The Redhawks have lost two straight and have only one road win at Chicago State which doesn't really count. The team checks in at 338th in two point shooting and 293rd in 3 point shooting. If you cover Terrell Brown, then they really don't have too many other weapons. Give me the home team here.

The Mavericks are 11-10 on the season and they host Purdue Fort Wayne. Omaha's last three games were 87-82 (OT), 91-76 and 91-81. Their defense is rather porous especially against the three where they allow teams to shoot over 37%. At home, this team has scored 87, 74, 81, 87 and 92 since mid-December. They don't play with the same pace that they have in the past, but I think they'll find some success against the Dons. Purdue Fort Wayne is 9-12 and on a three game losing streak. They've got an awful defense and have allowed 83, 69, 83 and 89 in their last four road games. The offense isn't as potent as it has been in the past, but there are still some solid options. I think this one is an over.

The Spiders are 15-4 and are for real in some respects as they host Dayton. Richmond is the 2nd best FT shooting team, 22nd in two point FG% and 34th in three point FG. This is one of the biggest games in recent history for a program that had been down. They come at you with four starters who can shoot from outside and bang inside. Yes, they lost Blake Francis, but Sherod, Gilyard, Golden and Cayo can all be pretty lethal. Andre Gustavson is a lockdown defender so it'll be interesting to see who they stick him on. Richmond's biggest problem is with rebounding and I don't know if Dayton is big enough to take advantage. The Flyers are 17-2 on the season and are the best two point shooting team in the country. I have a feeling Richmond will let Toppin go off, but lock down the other options for the Flyers. They've played just three true road games against the two crappy Philly schools and St. Louis who nearly beat them last Friday. There aren't too many weaknesses for the Flyers, but I think this juiced up atmosphere will help make things interesting. 

EIU is playing some great basketball now as they wrap up a four game homestand on Saturday. The Panthers are coming off a 12 point win over UT-Martin and has scored 70 or more in each of these contests. EIU is 6-0 at home with all but one of those games being a double digit winner. SEMO is 4-16 and has lost seven straight games. They have wins over Purdue Fort Wayne, Denver and two lower divisional teams. On the road, this team has been an absolute trainwreck. Last time out they lost by 19 at an equally awful SIU-E. They lost by 22 at Murray State, by 15 at Austin Peay, by 19 at SIU and by 15 at Youngstown State. They are 339th in defensive efficiency and 349th in effective FG% defense. This offense is pretty brutal and they seem like a team that you can fade quite a bit. Give me the hot home team in this one.

Two of the lesser teams in the A-10 play in Foggy Bottom as GW hosts St. Joe's. The Colonials are 8-11 and have lost five of their last seven. This is a team that has already lost five times at home including falling to American and Morgan State. They don't shoot it well and don't play great defense. George Washington is coming off a 59-54 loss to Fordham on the road after two straight wins. The way they play defense, they force a lot of three point attempts which is exactly what the Hawks want to do. St. Joe's is 4th in the country in three point attempts with almost 50% of their shots coming from range. Yes, they are 4-15 on the year and play very little defense, but they are coming off a respectable 13 point loss to VCU and an 87-81 win at the Palestra against Penn. This team lost by six at Davidson in OT and already has a win at UConn. Ryan Daly will be the best player on the court and I think we can see them potentially win this outright. 

We hit our 5% play with the over in Denver's last game and it's a great team to do it against. The Pios average about 71 possessions per game and are one of the worst defenses in the country. They currently rank 341st in 2 pt defense. Denver's offense has mediocre numbers, but I don't need them to do too much of the heavy lifting here. This squad has given up 70 or more in six straight and 11 of their last 12 overall. They played North Dakota State at home in a 66-55 game which is why I think we're getting a little bit of a lower number here. The Bison play one of the slowest tempos in the country, but their offense is really effective and they rarely turn it over. NDSU at home has scored 80 or more twice already in conference play and is coming off a tough 78-73 loss to rival South Dakota State so I imagine them trying to start fast. Give me the over here. I think we can get 80 from the home team. 

Greensboro has gotten over the early conference woes and has won three straight entering this one. They play at a really slow pace, but this team has had a problem at times setting their pace on the road. They beat The Citadel 79-69, Furman 86-73 and lost at Wofford 98-92 in double overtime. Isaiah Miller and James Dickey lead the way and Miller takes just over 40% of their shots. Next up is a road game against Samford who wants to fly with the 44th fastest pace and the 29th shortest offensive possessions. The team has lost five straight and has given up 88 or more in four straight. Bulldogs opponents are shooting 54.8% from two and 36.6% from long range. Their last home game was a 90-75 loss to Mercer. I just think we should see plenty of points in this one. 

BC has lost four straight and five of their last six as they host the Hokies on Saturday. BC's last victory came at home against Virginia. Since then they lost three on the road and another by 19 against Georgia Tech. The Eagles offense is very underwhelming, but they are better with Nik Popovic healthy and Derryck Thornton as well. Popovic will be especially important considering how small Virginia Tech is. The Hokies are 14-5, 5-3 in the ACC and do a lot of things really well. They don't turn it over a ton and don't foul a lot either. They are coming off a two overtime win over North Carolina which came after a tough two point home loss against Syracuse. VT has road wins at Syracuse and Wake, but also lost by 26 at UVA. I'm playing a hunch here and think this team struggles on the road against a lesser opponent. 

It's a quick turn around for Mercer and VMI as they played just 10 days ago with the Bears winning 73-62 at home. Since then Mercer has beaten Samford on the road 90-75 and Western Carolina 85-79 at home. This is a team that is really good at shooting the three and has had issues with defending it as well. On the road, they've also lost 79-71 at WCU and 72-63 at Greensboro. The Keydets have lost eight of their last nine with the lone win coming at home 88-79 over The Citadel. At home, this team has scored 70 or more in all but one contest. They also crank out a lot of threes and play rather porous defense. The Keydets allowed 97 to Western Carolina in Lexington and 89 to Furman there. I see a lot of points in this one. I think the over is in play.

I think we're getting good value with the home team in this one on Thursday. Yes, the Antelopes are 7-11 on the year, but they've won two straight and three of their last five. The roster has been in flux all year long due to injuries and transfers joining the program. One of those is Mikey Dixon who has played in six games for GCU and has made a difference. Dixon comes over from St. John's. Grand Canyon's also has one of the best home courts in the country, but they are 4-5 overall there. Hence another reason why I think there's value because to me, this is a play-on team in the future. They shoot FT's well and are tough to turn over. The Redhawks are 10-10 and are coming off a 75-67 loss to New Mexico State. They are 1-6 on the road with the lone win coming at Chicago State which really doesn't count. Seattle is horrendous offensively ranking 341st in two point shooting percentage and 291st in three point shooting percentage. The only thing they do very well is not turn the ball over with just a 14.7% which is good for 5th in the country. I think there's value with Grand Canyon. Seattle has covered just once as an underdog this season. 

To me, there's a ton of value with the over here in this matchup. It's meeting number two between Denver and North Dakota as UND won 82-71 in Denver earlier this month. They shot 65.5% from two point land and out-rebounded the Pios 41-32. Denver is coming off a 91-76 win over Nebraska Omaha at home. Before that they had lost 10 in a row allowing 80 or more six times. They play with a quicker pace and are one of the worst defenses in the country allowing teams to shoot almost 57% from the two point land.

The Fighting Hawks meanwhile play at a slightly faster than average pace, but teams are averaging just 15.8 seconds a possession which is the 5th fastest in the country. They don't force turnovers and are allowing teams to shoot over 36% from long range. North Dakota has had just five true home games with three of those being sub division one. They beat Purdue Fort Wayne 83-69 and lost 66-62 to Nebraska Omaha.

Denver has gone over in 13 of their 19 lined games while North Dakota has gone over in 11 of 17. These two have combined to go over in 13 of their 16 contests when the total is in the 140s.  I just think this one goes over the total as both teams should be able to put up some points. 

** 5% play from 143 - 145.....4% from 145.5 - 146.....No play if it goes over 147 ** 

I really had high hopes for UTSA before the season, but they started out 0-5 because of a horrendous defense and an offense that struggled. They are now 9-10 on the season and have won three of four and five of their last eight. Jackson and Wallace are one of the more underrated backcourts in the country. This team is 7th best in shooting FT's and are hard to turn over. The problems continue to be on defense which is a worry in this matchup. Still, their last two road games ended in overtime losses at UTEP and FIU. North Texas is 12-8, 6-1 in the C-USA. They play one of the slowest paces in the country and have an efficient offense. Even worse, the Mean Green are in great form, but I really think there's some value with the road team. In a game that may not see a ton of possessions, this underdog is live enough to make things interesting. North Texas turns it over quite a bit. I think the Roadrunners are undervalued as a bunch. 

The return of Jermaine Marrow to the lineup has done big things for Hampton as they host Campbell on Thursday. Marrow is 6th in the country in % of possessions used and 7th in percentage of shots taken. The guard has been fantastic since returning and so has the offense. The Pirates have scored 88, 95, 83, 73 and 92 over their last five games. Now, on the opposite side is that they are horrendous on defense. They are ranked 309th in two point defense and 310th in three point defense. Over that same five game span, the squad gave up 86, 116, 80, 83 and 85 points. Campbell is 11-8 and plays at a lot slower pace, but their offense is rather efficient with a 53.3% from two point land. They've had trouble at times setting their pace on the road and are coming off an 85-79 loss at Presbyterian in a 74 possession game. I'm going to keep riding the overs in Hampton games for now. 

I like the over in this one as I think CSUN's lack of defense and an uber efficient UCSB team will bring us some points. The Matadors away from home really take that name to heart. They are allowing teams to shoot 53.8% from two and 38.8% from three point land. They are getting crushed on the boards and even deliberate opponents are having quick offensive possessions. This team's offense has perked up a bit as they scored 80 in a road win at UC Riverside and have some pieces in Diane and Gomez. UCSB is really methodical on offense, but they are really efficient too. This team plays some lower possession contests, but at home they've cracked the 80 point mark five times. I really like their offense and despite the fact that their defense has been very good, they could give up some points here. I can see another 80+ point effort from the home team leading to an over.

Auburn has lost two straight as South Carolina comes to town on Wednesday. The Tigers play at a pretty good pace and are shooting almost 55% from two point land. Their defense has been very leaky during this recent stretch although it's strong at home. The Tigers have allowed 83 to Alabama and 79 to Vandy the past few weeks. Their offense at home has scored 80 or more seven times already with a 79 sprinkled in there too. South Carolina plays with a really fast pace and has the 27th shortest offensive possessions. The Gamecocks aren't great offensively, but that doesn't mean there won't be plenty of possessions. They are coming of an 81-67 win at Texas A&M and an 81-78 win over Kentucky at home. There are some ugly offensive numbers in the mix as well which is why I'm going full game as opposed to first half here. I just think Auburn is going to try and flex their muscles and put on a show.

Toledo is coming off an impressive win at Akron on Saturday night 99-89 in a game that finally saw them hit their offensive potential. The Rockets traditionally are really good on offense and are shooting almost 40% as a team from long range. Toledo has struggled at times with defense on the road giving up 84 to Kent State, 78 to Bradley and 72 to UMKC. The Bobcats are coming off a 60-58 win at Eastern Michigan. Ohio's offense is decently efficient and has played four 70+ possession games in their last five. Ironically the one game with less then 70 over that span, the score was 83-74 at home against Bowling Green. I see a lot of points scored in this one.

There was a money move on the over and I think it was what I needed to push me towards the under. I think some of that move is because of Aaron Rodgers and the mystique surrounding him. Green Bay lost 37-8 to the 49ers way back on November 24th in a game that saw Rodgers struggle and San Fran get whatever they wanted. There's been some personnel changes since then that have made the 49ers and Packers even a bit stronger. Nick Bosa will have his best friend Dee Ford with him up front and the duo was in the top 15 of PFF's pass rushing grades when they played together. Jimmy Garoppolo was really efficient and the run game grinded out 5.1 yards per carry in that one. Joe Staley will be available for this one and he wasn't in the last meeting when Green Bay had three sacks.

On the other side you've got the Packers whose defense has allowed 23 points or less in six straight contests since the MNF loss. They've been better against the run and have put together some solid performances in the secondary. Yes, Rodgers is scary when it comes to the postseason, but I'm guessing there will be a plan for Davante Adams. GB has gone under in 10 of their 17 contests this season including six of their last eight. This one just feels like a 24-20 contest.

** I'd also consider the Niners in the 1st quarter especially if it's anything less then -3. I'm just not as much of a buyer on the Packers as others are **

Going off the recency effect, people are jumping on the over as they saw KC put up over 50 points on Houston. They also saw these two play in Nashville back in November with a score of 35-32 going to the Titans. That game saw Patrick Mahomes throw for 446 yards and three touchdowns while Derrick Henry ran for 188 yards and two TDs. Fast forward to now and we're seeing an improved KC defense and a Tennessee team that has some intriguing pieces. These two played in KC in the playoffs back in January of 2018 that saw the Titans win 23-22. They ran the ball a ton in that one and controlled the clock. The same didn't occur back in November which I think the Titans will want to change. I can see Tennessee running it even more then they usually do because the best defense against Mahomes is not allowing him to have the ball. During this playoff run, the Titans have run it 77 times to just 31 passes. It's going to be a hold your nose situation because points will be scored here, but I think the under is definitely in play.

** I'd wait til Sunday to make this selection and see if it goes up a little bit more for some value. **

Valpo is 9-9 on the season with a 2-3 record in MVC play. The Crusaders have an intriguing offense that is playing with a quicker pace then they have in the past. They have the 50th quickest offensive pace and are allowing teams to shoot nearly 55% from two point land. Teams are getting whatever they want on Valpo this season. Last time out they gave up 88 points to Northern Iowa in an 88-78 loss. There are rumblings that Ryan Fazekas could finally play in this one too. He made the road trip last time out which was new. Indiana State prefers a slower pace, but has had somewhat of a hard time installing it on the road. The Sycamores shoot 39.2% from long range as a unit and have allowed 80 at Drake, 77 at Wright State and 91 at Louisville. I think this one gets played with some pace and it goes over the total.

Houston Baptist plays the fastest pace in the country and is in the top 5 in quickest offensive possessions and quickest possessions by the defense. This team has given up 100 points to five straight opponents and nine overall. The Huskies are allowing teams to shoot 61.3% from two point land and almost 40% from long range. They actually are a decent three point shooting squad themselves checking in at almost 38% as a team. It's almost an insta-bet on the over in their games because they just can't set the total high enough. Sam Houston State has a top 55 pace themselves and are 15th in the country in shooting long range. They've played games with scores of 90-81 at San Francisco, 90-86 at UTRGV and 94-75 at McNeese State. SHSU won't mind the pace so I can see them getting to 100 points themselves in this contest. Continue to take the over in HBU games.

The rare back to back here as UTSA now hosts UTEP after the two teams just played on Wednesday. UTSA had a massive lead and let it slip away. They did cover the number, but unfortunately fell 80-77 in overtime. The backcourt of Jackson and Wallace scored 55 points in the loss while Bryson Williams had 34 for the Miners. UTEP has not won away from home this year, but four of those were by single digits. The Roadrunners are a very good home team outside of a headscratching loss to Prairie View there. They beat their last two conference opponents by 16 and 10 there just last week. I think the rematch goes to the home team who won't blow a huge lead again in this one.

Denver has lost 10 straight games entering this one and you can see why with the true lack of defense they have. The Pios have allowed 86, 80, 80 and 82 in their last four games with two of those coming at home. They play at a quicker then average pace and at home seem to have a little more success on offense. Denver allows teams to shoot 58% from two point land on the year. Omaha plays at a slightly faster than average pace and has had their struggles with defense on the road. The Mavericks are coming off giving up 91 at South Dakota, but that came after a 66-62 road win at North Dakota. Other teams to show some success against them away from home were EWU who put up 97 and Dayton who scored 93. To me, this one should see some points and go over the lower than expected total.

Coppin State plays with the 4th fastest pace in college basketball and have the 10th shortest possession length on offense. Now, they don't shoot the greatest from long range or the free throw line, but they do it quickly. Only four of their games had 70 possessions or less. If you look at the Eagles defense on the road, they've given up 85 to Bethune Cookman, 79 to Mount St. Mary's, 91 to Miami and 86 to UMBC. There has been just three contests away from home where they've allowed less than 70.

The Rattlers are 3-11 and are the 85th fastest team in the country. They are 36th in opponent's average possession length so you figure Coppin St will get plenty of shots up. This team has won three of their last five including a 70-68 victory at Iowa State. In their first true home game of the season, they won 77-68 over Morgan State. Neither offense is all that effective, but I think there will be plenty of possessions so the over is in play.

It's going to be bitterly cold in Green Bay as the Packers and Seahawks play in Lambeau Field. Green Bay has gone under in four straight and seven of their last eight games as the offense has failed to produce a ton and the defense has been fantastic. Aaron Rodgers has had a mixed bag season so far and I don't know if the run game is good enough to threaten Seattle's vulnerable defense. Green Bay down the stretch has held five straight opponents to 20 points or less. The lineup of offenses outside of Minnesota are not that great with the Giants, Skins, Bears and Lions joining the Vikes. Their pass rush is going to give Russell Wilson fits I think especially if they keep him in the pocket. On the Seattle side, the offense has scored 21 points or less in three straight and five of their last seven. They arguably shouldn't be in this game if not for a dirty hit on Carson Wentz. The Seahawks don't run it well so that puts a lot on the passing game and Wilson. Seattle's defense is nothing great which is a worry here on the total. Last year's game was a 27-24 Seattle win at home, but the previous meeting in September of 2017 was a 17-9 game. I see this one lining up in the middle and going under the total. 

Quite simply, I'm not ready to buy Pittsburgh as a team who can consistently win on the road in this league. The Panthers offense still isn't the best as they shoot 47.6% from two point range and 30.1% from long range. They play at a ridiculously slow pace and are coming off a 73-65 road win at UNC which apparently everyone is doing nowadays. This is the same squad that lost 69-65 at home to Wake Forest earlier this month. Miami has lost two straight, but all five of their losses are to good teams except UConn. They lost two times to Louisville and also Florida and Duke. This team shoots it well from long range and plays mediocre defense. At home they are 4-2. Chris Lykes and Dejan Vasiljevic are a solid place to start in the backcourt. I think the Canes hold serve at home. 

These two teams played way back on October 13th with Houston winning 31-24 after a 23-17 halftime score. Houston was able to move the ball on the ground and found some success with Deshaun Watson despite him having the turnover issue. Houston's secondary is very vulnerable and I feel like with a week off, Andy Reid will put some wrinkles in to confuse the Texans. Coming off their late bye week back in early December, KC won 40-9 against the Raiders at home. Reid has been fantastic off bye weeks and has the massive advantage over Bill O'Brien on the sidelines. On the other side KC's defensive renaissance, to me, is a product of them facing extremely weak opponents. They held the Raiders, Pats, Broncos, Bears and Chargers to 52 points and none of those are that good. I can see Pat Mahomes getting whatever he wants through the air and I can see Watson doing what he wants as well. These two played back in 2017 with KC winning in Houston 42-34. I think this one should be a shootout on Sunday. 

Davidson comes home after losing three straight away from home. The Wildcats are one of the most disappointing teams in the country with Kellen Grady and Jon Axel Gudmundsson being way too good to be playing this poorly. They aren't the deepest team and don't play with the quickest tempo, but St. Joe's defense is more then accommodating. Davidson has played just three true home games this year scoring 87, 91 and 88 in those contests. The team shoots over 52% from two point land but is also allowing opponents to do so as well. St. Joe is 3-12 and has lost three straight themselves. On the road they've allowed 82, 87, 85, 108 and 84 points. Teams are shooting nearly 38% from long range against the Hawks who have one of the least efficient defenses in the country. SJU has gone over in 18 of their last 31 road games including four of five this season. Give me the over here. 

Well we have the two best teams in FCS football playing in the championship as North Dakota State takes on James Madison. Quite simply for me, the Dukes are the better team and I think they will win this one outright. Depending upon the book you use, the Circa in Las Vegas has the Dukes -2 while 5Dimes has North Dakota State -1.5. 

Tulane has lost five of their last seven as they enter this matchup at Temple. Still, the team does have a road win at Southern Miss and has played well in losses at Memphis and UConn. The Green Wave are very good shooters from long range and are pretty good at the free throw line as well. Their problems come on defense where teams shoot 54% from two point range against them. Temple has lost two straight and is now 9-5 on the year. Their offense is pretty atrocious as they shoot 45.8% from two point land and just under 68% from the free throw line. Expect to see a little zone defense from the road team as Temple has struggled with it this year. At home, they've got only three double digit victories. With this one being a noon contest, I don't expect much of an atmosphere and I think this one is a little closer then Vegas thinks. 

Everyone is throwing dirt on the Patriots after limping down the stretch to a 2-3 record. New England's offense is on a run of scoring 24 points or more in three straight games, but that is coming after a stretch scoring less than that five times. The Pats defense is coming off giving up 27 points to the Dolphins, but I think the unit will play better. At home they've held the Bills to 17, the Chiefs to 23 and the Cowboys to 9. Stephon Gilmore should be improved and have a lot of success against AJ Brown. Tennessee is really hot and a team that has a great offense statistically. It could be argued though that they haven't see a very good defense in quite awhile. Seeing a healthy diet of Houston, Oakland, Indy, Jacksonville and New Orleans down the stretch will inflate anyone's numbers. The concern for the under is if the Titans defense can slow down the Pats enough. Last year the Titans won 34-10 at home over the Pats. I just think the total is a little too high and the weather could be a bit of an issue too. 

The Bills and Texans start things off on Saturday in the NFL Playoffs. Buffalo's defense is holding opponents to around 16 points per game and under 300 yards per contest as well. Since allowing 31 points to the Eagles back in late October, they've given up 20 points or less seven times. It's very hard to run on Buffalo and the secondary has been pretty solid for the most part. The Bills offense concerns me as they've scored 20 points or less in four straight and five of their last six. Houston's defense isn't great, but it looks like JJ Watt is coming back which will be a huge help. They aren't good at stopping the pass but I just don't think Buffalo can take advantage. The Texans offense doesn't run it very well so that puts more pressure on Deshaun Watson. These two played in Houston last year with the home team winning 20-13. I think we see another low scoring game. 

3% at 44
2% at 42.5 or lower

The Tribe have a chance to go 3-0 in the CAA with three road wins as they take on Northeastern on Saturday. The team beat Elon 74-73 in 2019 and then won at Hofstra 88-61 in a 71 possession game. They've got six road wins already this season and have one of the more efficient offenses in the country. They are shooting 55.5% from two point land and almost 38% from long range and feature the twin towers of Nathan Knight and Andy Van Vliet. Northeastern is 9-6 with three wins in conference over the dregs of the CAA. They are one of the slower teams in the country, but are also highly efficient with the 6th best success from long range and the 4th best from the free throw line. It's hard to get a gauge on the Huskies who have played both high and low scoring games at home. I just feel like the team from Williamsburg lets down here and we go over the total. 

I don't get why Syracuse is getting any respect in this game. They have not beaten a quality team yet this season. The Orange's best win is probably at Georgia Tech, but at home it's Colgate who is 121 in KenPom. Outside of Elijah Hughes, it's really hard to find consistent scoring on this team and there will be absolutely no home-court advantage. Students won't be there and the fanbase has somewhat checked out on this boring team to watch. Notre Dame is 9-4 with a bunch of terrible wins too. They did beat both Toledo and UCLA at home and have a two point loss to Indiana on the resume as well. They don't turn the ball over and have some decent shooters on the roster. John Mooney is going to be able to do whatever he wants inside while TJ Gibbs and Dane Goodwin will be the zone busters. I just think this is just a bit too many points. Mike Brey is in a good spot here especially getting points. 

So much is going on surrounding this UTEP team right now and they've got to deal with it on the road in Florida. Over the past 72 hours, they've seen two kids transfer and one kid come back and their coach is in the hospital due to an allergic reaction. UTEP has lost two straight and four of their last five. One of the kids who transferred out was Jordan Lathon who was the starting point guard. The Miners lost 69-67 at FIU on Thursday and have to play this game 48 hours later. FAU is no great shakes, but they are 9-5 this season and have played some good defense. They've held six straight opponents to less then 70 points. The Owls are coming off a 79-64 win at home against UTSA and have won five of their last six. I just think it's a lot for UTEP to handle on the road so I think they lose this one as well and they'll regroup at home.

The Citadel wants to run and gun and it shows with the 18th fastest pace in the country. They are allowing opponents to shoot 61% from two point land which is one of the highest in the country. At home, they've allowed 87, 91 and 96 to their division one opponents. The Bulldogs offense works better there though as well. Western Carolina has the 43rd fastest pace in the country and their opponents have possessions of just 16.2 seconds which is 24th fastest. On the road, they've played games with scores of 91-72, 79-74, 96-94, 70-64, 74-61 and 89-76. The common thread is that they succeed more when the opposition wants to run. Xavier and Stetson didn't want to and those were the two lowest scores. The Catamounts didn't mind running with the Bulldogs last year with scores of 103-82 at home and 94-82 on the road. Give me the over here. 

Creighton is 12-2 on the season and is one of the most efficient offenses in the country. They are 11th in KenPom in adjusted efficiency and are 21st in effective FG%. The team has a road win at Arizona State to go along with a loss to Michigan away from home. The Blue Jays are pretty good against the three but could be a little bit better defensively. Butler is 13-1 on the year and is one of the slowest teams in the country. They are 345th in terms of average possession length. The defense has been absolutely fantastic, but there's a question mark with Kamar Baldwin who is a game-time decision. Remember that we are still probably in the time when the students aren't on campus so home courts aren't as strong as normal. This team won by two at St. John's in their first conference game and the only loss was by one at Baylor. I just think this is too many points for a solid road team that can score. 

It's Bud Foster's final game as defensive coordinator for the Hokies and they get Kentucky on Tuesday. The Wildcats offense is predicated on Lynn Bowden Jr's mobility and the ground game. Last month they ran the ball an average of 51 times per game. VT has the 27th ranked rushing defense and has held their last seven opponents to less than 150 rushing yards. Normally I'd be worried that Caleb Farley is not a guarantee for Tech because he's their best corner but he wouldn't be very busy anyways. 

Power 5 teams averaged just under 20 points per game against UK's defense. The Hokies offense is solid, but very one dimensional. They can't run it very well even with the return of Jalen Holston so that puts more on Hendon Hooker who has been very good down the stretch. He's got amazing receivers with everyone healthy now. The Wildcats have the 2nd best pass rush by the numbers in the SEC. Another key factor is that both teams have amazing punters which will help the under and make each team have to drive long drives in order to score. I just don't know how either team gets to 24 points unless there's a massive turnover issue which neither team has. Give me the under here.

The Hilltoppers boast the best scoring defense in Conference USA and have allowed just 20.1 points per game in 12 games. WKU allowed an average of 137.3 yards rushing per game. The group features C-USA Defensive Player of the Year DeAngelo Malone, who was tied for fourth in the country with 21 tackles for loss and 11th in the nation with 11.5 sacks when receiving the honor. Only two schools ran for 200 yards on the Hilltoppers this year and they were the two power five schools on Western Kentucky’s schedule. The problems for the Toppers come on offense where they are just okay. They want to run it and use their superiority up front. Western Michigan's offense is going to be one of the best WKU has seen this season. They have popped off quite a bit this season, but they've also failed to see too many defenses like this. The Broncos want to run the ball which will take some time off the clock. WMU has gone under in eight of their 12 games while Western Kentucky has gone under in half of their contests. I think this one features a bit more ball control. 

There's no guarantee that a team who needs to win in week 17 will actually do it. Philly just needs to win and they are in, but they are coming off a highly emotional game at home against Dallas and will not have Zach Ertz either. These two played earlier in the month with Eli Manning under center and they nearly won in Philly 23-17. The Eagles have so many injuries although Jordan Howard will be returning and Lane Johnson is questionable. Still, there's not a ton of weapons and Philly's defense has had it's issues on the road. The Eagles D gave up 27 in Washington, 37 in Miami and 37 in Dallas. The Giants have won their last two and the offense has looked really good. They put up 36 on Miami at home and 41 in Washington last time out. Daniel Jones has improved and is doing well when he's not turning it over. I think New York would thoroughly enjoy ruining the Eagles season. Give me the home underdog here that's not trying to tank away their season. 

The Steelers need to win and get help in order to get in the playoffs. They've been playing some terrible football on offense scoring just 10 points the last two weeks in games against the Bills and Jets. This is their third road game over the last four weeks and their fifth in their last seven. Devlin Hodges is under center and he's struggled terribly. The backup is Paxton Lynch who won't help much either. They can't run it with James Conner and Maurkice Pouncey out and the passing game is weak too. Yes, the defense has been awesome holding five straight opponents to 20 points or less. Baltimore is sitting a lot of their starters meaning RG3 is getting the call at QB and this is an audition for him to show other teams he's still got it. Now, they can't sit all of their starters, but Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews and Mark Ingram are all out. There's some good backups behind them and I just don't have faith in Pittsburgh. Plus, the Titans game will be on at the same time so who knows how that will effect the team. I like the home dogs in this one. 

There are games in week 17 where neither team cares and plenty of points are scored. We saw that in week 16 with the Skins/Giants and Bengals/Dolphins contests. These two played in Atlanta back on November 24th with the Bucs winning 35-22 on the road. Since then the Falcons have scored 18, 40, 29 and 24 as Matt Ryan tries to finish with a flourish. The Atlanta defense has played well as of late, but the over has gone over in three of it's last five. On the other side, Tampa Bay saw it's streak of 28 points or more scored end at four straight after they only put up 20 on the Texans at home. Jameis Winston was in a giving mood once again and is part of the reason why the over is always so live. Winston is playing for his future and to keep up as the defense has struggled against the pass. They are in decent form right now, but once again in this final game, I think we get a back and forth contest. 

Quite simply, I think Clemson is the best team in the country and it seems like they are relishing playing third fiddle to Ohio State and LSU. These two teams are ridiculously similar with strong offenses and even stronger defenses. The Tigers average just over 46 points per game while the Buckeyes average just over 48. Yes, Clemson played a ridiculously easy schedule, but they took care of business smashing everyone except UNC. Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne are a potent duo and that doesn't even include the WRs out wide and Etienne's backup as well. Ohio State has also been rolling as of late although Justin Fields did come out recently and say his ankle still isn't 100%. Hasn't mattered down the stretch, but the defense has shown some cracks. They gave up chunk plays to both Michigan and Wisconsin away from home where their defense just isn't as strong. This is really personal preference to me. I'm a guy who thinks Clemson is just the better team, but you could think OSU is. I like Dabo in a big game and Brent Venables is the best defensive coordinator in football. 

Michigan State is 6-6 and has limped down the stretch. Sure, the Spartans beat Rutgers and Maryland in their last two games, but pretty much everyone beat those two. The more concerning part is that they scored only 46 points against two awful defenses and have put up just 97 their last five games overall. There's no questioning Sparty's defense although you can beat them through the air. Illinois threw for 369 yards in their 37-34 win in East Lansing. Wake Forest has lost three of their last four, but they were ravaged by injuries on offense. Even with those problems they still managed to put up a combined 69 points on Duke and Syracuse. The big problem for this team is their defense that has been awful against the run and the pass. They will be without safety Nasir Greer who was honorable mention all-ACC. Still, what's the motivation for Michigan State to show up in this game in a baseball stadium against a perceived lower level ACC team. I'll take the Demon Deacons plus the points. One other thing to consider is that Wake's kicker has missed one FG all year while Sparty's has missed nine. Give me the dog here.

I'm going to lock in this play now as I don't want to lose the value of the line and where it's at. Miami just finished up a 6-6 season and now has to head to Shreveport to take on Louisiana Tech. The Hurricanes traditionally have not shown up for games like this as they think this stuff is below them. Jarren Williams and N'Kosi Perry are vying for the quarterback position as Miami tries to find who will best suit the offense. The Canes have lost to FIU and Duke their last two games after a three game win streak.

On the other side, you've got Louisiana Tech who has been a fantastic team this season when everyone was available. They lost two of their last three when the quarterback and #1 wide receiver were suspended. With them in place, the offense was fantastic and the defense even played pretty well. They've played just seven contests against the ACC since 1992 so you know they'll relish this chance.

I'm playing a lack of motivation for the Canes in this one. I'm also playing the chance that Miami loses a player or two as they prep for the draft and sit out this game.

** Watch the headlines to see who may or may not play in this one. It will severely change my thoughts here, but as of now this is my play **

I think this line is a little high on Sunday night as the Bears host the Chiefs. Chicago has won three of their last four, but are coming of a 21-13 loss to Green Bay in which the offense did it's part, but things just didn't go their way. Still, this team has played well at home as of late winning each of their last three there. The defense is back in it's groove having held five of their last seven opponents to 20 points or less. KC has won four straight, but their last loss came against Tennessee on the road just over a month ago in a game like this against a tough nosed team that will grind it out a little bit and make KC have to work for it's points. I'm not a huge believer that this defense has turned it around all of a sudden. They've faced four straight weaker offenses in LA, Oakland, New England and Denver. The Bears have covered seven of their last nine as a home underdog with one other game being a push. They are 15-8-1 against the spread the last three seasons at home. I think they can make things interesting here. 

It's a huge game for the Seahawks in terms of the one seed in the NFC as they host the Cardinals. Seattle's been living on the edge this season with just one double digit victory which happened to come against Arizona. Back on September 29th, the Seahawks won 27-10 in a game that saw them up 20-3 at halftime. Arizona has played better as of late and is coming off a 38-24 win over Cleveland in which its offense sizzled and its defense even made a few plays too. This team has won in New York against the Giants and had close losses at Tampa Bay and San Francisco. The Seahawks just wrapped up a stretch of four of five games on the road that featured a ton of travel. They also host the 49ers next week in a much larger game. Seattle's defense is ridiculously banged up with Jadeveon Clowney and Quandre Diggs out as well as Duane Brown on the offense. Seattle is 9-12-1 against the spread over their last three seasons at home including 2-4 this year. Give me the road team to make things interesting. 

This is a spot play here on the home team as they bounce back from a tough loss to the Texans. It snapped their four game win streak which saw the offense go nuts. Tennessee is one of those teams that are really hard to figure out, but here outside, I like their chances. This is the same team that beat the Chiefs 35-32 at home back on November 10th. With Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill now, you could see them play some ball control and keep it away from a banged up Saints team. New Orleans is coming off an emotional stretch where they had the duel with the 49ers at home and then they got Drew Brees the record on Monday Night. Tennessee has covered eight of their last 11 non-conference games including two of three this year. The home team is a lot healthier and is in a buy low situation after coming up small against Houston at home last week. 

This game won't be on many people's radar unless you are rooting for the number one pick. The long and short of it is that the wrong team was favored and arguably the squad with less wins has played better as of late. Yes Cincy got blasted last week by the Pats, but of course they had film of what the Bengals wanted to do. Before that the team had three single digit losses and a 22-6 win over the Jets. With Andy Dalton playing for his future and Joe Mixon who has been successful as of late, they've got more talent then Miami. Cincy's defense has been sneaky good as a unit and are semi healthy as well. The Fins had that stretch of games where they competed and won two straight. Since then, they've lost four of five with three of those being by 16 or more. There's no real run game and the defense has been ravaged by injuries. I think the Bengals can and should win this outright. 

Recency bias comes into play here. The betting public saw the Jets get thrashed in Baltimore last Thursday night and are running to the window on the Steelers. This is a New York team that has played better at home with wins over the Cowboys, Giants, Raiders and Dolphins there. Yes, the Jets aren't great, but their secondary has actually played better and they've been very good against the run. Sam Darnold hopefully won't be seeing ghosts in this game, but you know Le'Veon Bell will be motivated to see his former team. It does scare me that Adam Gase is an idiot. On the other side, Pittsburgh has won three of their last four and are coming off a 17-10 home loss to Buffalo. Their quarterback situation is brutal with Duck Hodges being the "best" option right now. The run game has struggled a bit as James Conner has been banged up. This team struggled to win in Cincinnati and Arizona in their last two road games. I'm playing the spot here as the Steelers have the Ravens next week and if Baltimore wins this week, then they'll play backups in week 17. Last home game for the Jets and I'll take them here on Sunday. Pittsburgh is 13-19-1 ATS the last three seasons as a favorite and 4-7-1 ATS as a road favorite over that span. 

I missed the value of 51 on this one, but I still think we see an under in JMU/Weber State game. The Dukes offense was uncharacteristically sloppy last week in the win over Northern Iowa. The thing is that their defense was lock down once again. JMU's front line with Greene, Daka and Carter is immense and will shut down run games. I think the Dukes will improve on offense, but once again Weber State is going to struggle to score. 

Weber's offense did just enough last week in the snow against Montana. They have a very mediocre quarterback in Jake Constantine who nearly has as many interceptions as he does touchdowns. They have a mediocre run game and some decent weapons on the outside, but what the Wildcats are known for is their defense. They held San Diego State to just six points in week one and then a few weeks later did solid work against Nevada. I think this one could be a bit of a field position battle. 

I liked it a lot more at 51 but at 47, I think it's still worth a look. I can see a 31-10 type game. 

These two teams have a ton of similarities. NDSU is No. 5 in the FCS with 285.9 rushing yards per game and Montana State is No. 7 with 265.9, but neither team has a 1,000-yard rusher. The Bobcats are No. 9 with 107.1 rushing yards allowed per game while the Bison are No. 30 with 134.7. The Bison have 41 sacks and have allowed 12. MSU has 41 sacks and have allowed 13.

These two teams want to move the ball on the ground and I don't know if they'll be successful. In their last three games, the defending champions are averaging 22.3 PPG and 363.0 YPG. Montana State is averaging nearly 40 points per game over that same span as well.

I think it's a field position battle between these two. I don't know if someone gets to 27 so I'm feeling it could be a 21-10 game. The one worry is that the Bison snap out of their doldrums and blow this thing out, but I just don't see that happening.

** I'd play this down to 45 or so. If you wait maybe the total sails up a bit and there's more value **

If you got in early on this one, then you are feeling good with the Jordan Love news. The Aggies quarterback was pinched for marijuana along with leading rusher Gerold Bright. One has to believe that the two will miss some time and potentially the whole game. Behind Love is a lightly used quarterback who saw mostly mop up duty. I really don't love the Aggies and how they closed things out down the stretch on defense. Linebacker David Woodward will miss his fifth straight game and you notice his absence on the run defense. 

Momentum is a big thing in these games and Kent State has it. They've won three straight and have covered each of their last five as an underdog. Dustin Crum has 2,336 yards and 18 TDs to 2 INT and leads the team in rushing yards.. Kent State scored 30+ points in five of its final six games overall. The Flashes will get starting junior safety Qwuantrezz Knight back from a head injury that kept him out of action the past two games.

I think USU losing Love is pretty big. Kent State's defense isn't great, but if Bright is out too even for a period, that's huge. I'm taking the MAC school as I think they have a shot outright. 

** I'd consider Kent State in 1H too. The Aggies have surrendered a whopping 87 first-half points over their previous three games, with 73 coming in their final two games of the season. **

St. Joe's is 2-9 on the season and has had a nine day break since losing 108-61 to Temple in a city rivalry game. The Hawks play very little defense and are allowing teams to shoot 41.1% from long range. There's an injury of note to an already shallow rotation which gives them eight players to work with, but a couple are deep bench guys. This puts a ton of pressure on Ryan Daly to get offense going along with Lorenzo Edwards. They are also without Taylor Funk who was another piece on offense.

William and Mary is 8-3 and has already gotten their post exam break game out of the way beating Goucher 90-30. This team has road wins against High Point, American, Wofford and Fairfield. They aren't as fast as they've been in the past, but still feature a very effective FG% that is 28th in the country. I am worried that they don't force enough turnovers, but I think this team gets the win on Thursday on the road. There won't be much of an atmosphere in Philly.

The Steelers have been consistently undersold by Vegas it seems this season and I feel like we're getting some value here with the home team on Sunday night. The Steelers D is holding opponents to less then 20 points per contest. They've clamped down against the pass and are also doing work against the run. Pittsburgh's offense has improved with Duck Hodges under center. They also potentially could get James Conner back which will help. Buffalo has won three of their last four and is coming off a 24-17 home loss to the Ravens. They did pretty well against Lamar Jackson and already have wins at Tennessee, Miami and Dallas this season. Still, I'm not a huge believer of their offense. Yes, Josh Allen is getting better, but he doesn't have a ton of weapons to worry about. Give me Pittsburgh in an almost straight up situation.

This is a play on a competent home team that's getting points against a potential look-ahead situation. Minnesota has lost two of their last three road games and have played four of their last six away from home. The Vikings are in the mix for both the division and the wild card in the NFC, but have home games against division rival Green Bay and Chicago coming up next. They will get a boost most likely from the return of Adam Thielen, but LA's defense is getting healthier too. Derwin James is back at safety and he's a huge piece to the puzzle. The Chargers saw their three game losing streak snapped last week in a 45-10 win over Jacksonville. LA's been able to run the ball and seemingly has had Philip Rivers play a little bit better. Their defense is pretty much back intact and the unit is tough to run and throw on. Combine that with a 10-12 ATS record the last three years with Minnesota away from home and I think LA could potentially win the game outright.

The Jaguars have quit on the season and it shows on the field. They've lost five in a row and have been outscored by 117 points over that span which included road games at Indy and Tennessee. The offense isn't doing enough no matter who is under center and the defense is getting crushed by their opponent's ground game. Oakland has lost three straight and is in a bad spot themselves, but it looks like Josh Jacobs could be back to revive the run game and the passing attack should get going too. Also, this is the team's last home game in Oakland so you know it'll be loud and emotional. I just think Jacksonville has quit and Doug Marrone has lost the room. Because of that I think they get crushed one more time as the Raiders send their fans out with smiles and happiness. 

Seattle hits the road to play the vulnerable Carolina offense on Sunday. The Seahawks are coming off a 28-12 loss in a flat spot against the Rams last time out. This team's offense has scored 27 or more in four of their last six and should use plenty of Chris Carson against a very porous Carolina defense. Seattle's defense is pretty bad and yet people aren't talking about it. They've given up 24 points or more in four of their last five. The Panthers have gone over in three straight and seven of their last nine games overall. Kyle Allen has reverted back to the mean as of late and is struggling right now. Still, with Christian McCaffrey as a threat, Carolina has scored 20 or more in three straight games. I just think this one is an over on Sunday with both teams putting up some points in a probable Seattle win. 

Before the season began, the line for this game was a pick'em according to the Westgate because Army was supposed to be really good with Kelvin Hopkins under center and Navy was supposed to struggle considering how few starters they had back on defense. Well the script has been flipped for this one with the Naval Academy playing in a bowl game and Army being massively disappointing. In this battle of triple option teams you've got Hopkins and Jabari Laws under center vs. Malcolm Perry for Navy with the edge clearly going to the squad with the AAC Offensive Player of the Year. The problems for Army come on the defensive side of the ball although they did have a decent stretch of games against Air Force, UMass and VMI. Navy's defense allowed 121 points their last three games against Notre Dame, SMU and Houston, but Army's not as explosive. 

The under is about as close to an instabet in this series as could possibly be. These two teams won't allow for a ton of possessions due to the triple option and the familiarity each has with it. Yes, Navy can throw it more and that's something to consider, but the nature of this game lends to no one really running away with it. There's been one game that has been decided by more than one score since 2011 and that came in 2013 when Navy won 34-7. I know what's at stake and I know that Army has won three straight, but I just think this is way too many points in another potential one possession contest. 

Before the season began, the line for this game was a pick'em according to the Westgate because Army was supposed to be really good with Kelvin Hopkins under center and Navy was supposed to struggle considering how few starters they had back on defense. Well the script has been flipped for this one with the Naval Academy playing in a bowl game and Army being massively disappointing. In this battle of triple option teams you've got Hopkins and Jabari Laws under center vs. Malcolm Perry for Navy with the edge clearly going to the squad with the AAC Offensive Player of the Year. The problems for Army come on the defensive side of the ball although they did have a decent stretch of games against Air Force, UMass and VMI. Navy's defense allowed 121 points their last three games against Notre Dame, SMU and Houston, but Army's not as explosive. 

The under is about as close to an instabet in this series as could possibly be. These two teams won't allow for a ton of possessions due to the triple option and the familiarity each has with it. Yes, Navy can throw it more and that's something to consider, but the nature of this game lends to no one really running away with it. There's been one game that has been decided by more than one score since 2011 and that came in 2013 when Navy won 34-7. I know what's at stake and I know that Army has won three straight, but I just think this is way too many points in another potential one possession contest. 

James Madison hosts Northern Iowa on Friday night at 7 o clock on ESPN2. The Dukes average nearly 500 yards of offense as they feature a full backfield with several running backs and an efficient passing attack led by Ben DiNucci. It's a little tough to take an under with this team because they've scored a ton on everyone. This squad also third in total defense and features a ferocious front line and a stout secondary. UNI is 11th in the FCS in total defense and 14th in scoring defense. The Panthers allowed only 220 yards against South Dakota State and 213 against San Diego. They've played road games in Ames Iowa and Fargo North Dakota so they won't be intimidated by Harrisonburg. The common thread for a lot of the steps up in competition for the Panthers is a lack of offense. They put up 26 on Iowa State in week 1, 14 on North Dakota State and 13 on South Dakota State last week. The worry is that they go three and out a ton and the game gets away from them. There's also going to be some precipitation in the forecast which could effect some things. I don't think JMU will be worried about it because they are balanced, but maybe it causes issues for UNI. I'll take my chances with the under in this one.

I agree with the line move here and will be taking the home team. St. Louis is coming off a 34-7 win in Arizona where everything went right. Jared Goff was great and the defense was like a brick wall. I don't know if this means Goff has turned the corner, but at least he has a little confidence. These two played a very tight game in Seattle back on October 3rd with the Rams losing 30-29. Seattle has won five straight, but I really don't like their defense. I think their secondary is very mediocre and their front seven is exploitable as well. Of course people will back them for Russell Wilson, but he's had three straight human performances and probably should have lost two of those games. I think Seattle has been lucky as of late and I'm hoping that runs out on Sunday. Give me LA in this situation to win the game. 

It's Drew Lock's first true road game of his NFL career as they take on the Houston Texans. Denver's offense looked competent for the first time in a few weeks against the Chargers in a 23-20 win. The Broncos have struggled to run it and are relying on a rookie on the road. The good thing for Denver is that this defense has been awesome. Over the last nine weeks, they've allowed more then 25 points just three times. Their secondary is one of the best and their run defense for the most part has been strong.

For Houston, this is an epic sandwich spot coming of a home division win followed by a Sunday night spotlight win over New England. They've gone under in four of their last five with the defense playing better and the offense showing some inconsistency. With a big road game against Tennessee on deck, I wonder if focus is an issue in this one for the home team. Last year these two played a 19-17 game in Denver with the Texans winning despite less than 300 yards of offense. Denver has gone under in 15 of their last 24 as an underdog and 14 of their last 22 on the road. Houston has gone under in 14 of their last 23 at home including four of six this season. Give me the under here. 

Carolina moves on without their head coach Ron Rivera. From what it sounds like, the locker room wasn't too thrilled with that decision. Is it Rivera's fault that the defense has given up 92 points the last three weeks? I think Kyle Allen has been exposed a bit as of late and that's stopped the offense even though they scored 52 points the last two weeks. These two teams played in Carolina with Atlanta winning 29-3 back on November 17th. The Falcons offense gets a boost with the return of Julio Jones and Austin Hooper as well as a key offensive lineman up front. The defense was solid last week against the Saints. I just wonder if the Panthers play distracted and lay a massive egg. 

Carolina moves on without their head coach Ron Rivera. From what it sounds like, the locker room wasn't too thrilled with that decision. Is it Rivera's fault that the defense has given up 92 points the last three weeks? I think Kyle Allen has been exposed a bit as of late and that's stopped the offense even though they scored 52 points the last two weeks. These two teams played in Carolina with Atlanta winning 29-3 back on November 17th. The Falcons offense gets a boost with the return of Julio Jones and Austin Hooper as well as a key offensive lineman up front. The defense was solid last week against the Saints, but I'm not buying them still. Carolina has gone over in 10 of their last 15 road games as an underdog.

I don't completely understand this line. Yes, UC Davis is 3-7 on the year with their wins coming over William Jessup, Idaho and Northern Arizona, but if you look at some of their losses they fell by 4 at Utah, by 6 at California and by 10 at Portland and Sacramento State. This team is solid offensively, but has their struggles on defense. Once again though, when you face two PAC-12 schools, it'll throw the numbers off. This is just the Aggies second home game of the season. NIU is nothing special especially on offense where they are 318th in two point shooting percentage. They are coming off a 61-49 loss at St. Mary's and needed late runs to beat Western Illinois and awful SIU Edwardsville on the road. The Huskies are just 12-12 against the spread the past three years as a favorite. These two played in DeKalb last year and it was a 71-62 win for the home team as a 7.5 point favorite. I think the home team can win this one so I'll take the points. 

The ACC Championship figures to be a blowout on Saturday night as Clemson takes the final step towards another playoff berth. The Tigers are averaging over 45 points per game as a unit while putting up almost 550 yards. Their coach Dabo Swinney has played the disrespect card and will want to use this platform to remind everyone how good they are. The best thing for this matchup is how banged up UVA is in the secondary. They let Hendon Hooker throw all over them last week and his attack is nowhere near as good as Trevor Lawrence. Travis Etienne should be able to find some holes against this front seven. On the other side, Clemson's defense is putting up epic numbers, but I think they are facing their best offense of the season in the Wahoos. UVA is averaging over 30 points per game and features Bryce Perkins who is the 2nd best QB in the ACC. UVA has scored 30 points or more in four straight and five of their last six. I think Perkins will be able to keep Clemson honest enough. The Hoos have gone over in eight of their 12 games this year. I just see a lot of points in this on one Saturday. 

The winner of this SEC game will get their spot in the FBS playoffs. The Tigers are 12-0 and are putting up almost 50 points per game. Joe Burrow and this offense have scored 45 or more in four straight games, but outside of Alabama, I'm not too impressed with the defenses they've faced. Georgia allowed 151 rushing yards against three ranked foes, and it held Notre Dame and Florida under 50. LSU's defense has struggled at times, but I'm really not that scared of Georgia's offense. The Bulldogs put up 52 on a bad Georgia Tech team, but scored 67 points the previous three weeks and have been inconsistent on that side of the ball. Lawrence Cager got hurt and George Pickens is out for the first half after getting ejected last week. D'Andre Swift is the team's star running back, but he's not 100%. UGA's run defense has been awesome the past few weeks and the secondary has it's moments. Last year LSU won this game 36-16 at home with a 16-0 halftime score.

Kennesaw State is coming off a 28-21 road win at Wofford in round one of the FCS playos. In that game, quarterback Tommy Bryant suffered a leg injury and backup Jonathan Murphy came in to rush for 206 yards and three touchdowns. This team wants to run it as they average nearly 350 yards on the ground per game. Kennesaw has held seven opponents to 20 points or less and nearly knocked off their FBS opponent Kent State 26-23 in overtime. Another factor to consider here is that this will be their fourth road game over their last five. Weber State has had the week off to prepare for this one and is ninth in the FCS with 107.3 rushing yards allowed per game. They've held seven opponents to 20 points or less and are very familiar with the triple option as they've seen Cal Poly four straight years. Over the last four seasons, the Wildcats have held Cal Poly to an average of 12 points less and 128 rushing yards less than their usual scoring and rushing averages. I just think we see a lot of rushing and some long possessions. Give me the under here. 

Texas Arlington is 4-5 this season. They won their first two games and then lost three before alternating wins and losses. Arlington's offense is not very effective and they are one of the worst shooting squads in the country. The Mavericks shoot 45.2% from two point range and 31% from long range. This team is coming off a loss at home to North Texas 77-66 and if their defense isn't on, then their offense won't save them. 

The Gauchos play at one of the slowest paces in the country, but they've won four straight by virtue of their defense. Now look, the opponents weren't great, but there's a ton of talent here. Matt Freeman has been a strong member of the team shooting 51.7% from long range and he complements Max Heidegger and JaQuori McLaughlin well. UCSB is 21-8 against the spread the last three seasons in non-conference games. 

It's a battle in Philly as Drexel hosts La Salle. The Explorers are 4-3 and have lost all three of their previous games against the rest of the schools in the area falling 75-59 at Penn, 70-65 at home to Temple and 83-72 at Villanova. A couple of things to point out here as the team shoots 45.4% from two point range and 65.2% from the free throw line. The average possession length for opponents on offense against them is 15.9 secs which is the 19th shortest in the country. Drexel is 5-4 with all five wins coming at home. Granted, the only solid victory of the group was Princeton, but this team's offense is pretty good. They've scored over 80 four times already this season and are 52nd in effective FG%. I think this one screams over and a play on the home team as well. Last year Drexel won 89-84 in this game and also beat them 72-70 in 2017. 

Thursday Night Football features Dallas traveling to Chicago. The Bears had a five game under streak snapped last time out when they squeaked over the low total in Detroit against the Lions. Chicago has struggled to score all season long as Mitch Trubisky has had his issues. He may have come out of those struggles the last two weeks, but that was against some weak secondaries. We do know Chicago's defense has been as fierce as they have in the past holding four straight teams to 20 points or less. On the Dallas side, they've gone under in two straight as the offense scored just 24 points against playoff level New England and Buffalo. The run game has lost it's effectiveness as the team asks Dak Prescott to throw it more. Dallas' defense has been very hot and cold as teams start running on them. The Cowboys have held six straight teams to 250 yards passing or less. The Bears have gone under in 16 of their last 23 home contests including five of six this year. I lean heavily to the under as I think we could see both teams struggle to score here.

Creighton is back home to start a stretch of four home games as they host Oral Roberts. This team is coming off a 1-1 trip to Vegas in which they beat Texas Tech and lost to San Diego State by 31. The Blue Jays offense is one of the most efficient in the country and is shooting 53.2% from two point land and 38.2% from long range. Creighton's defense is pretty bad too allowing teams to shoot 53% from up close. They've allowed 70 or more to five opponents this season. Marcus Zegarowski and Ty-Shon Alexander are two of the better players on the team. Oral Roberts has an adjusted tempo of 75 possessions which is 21st in the country. Teams are taking just 15 secs to get a shot up on ORU. In games against steps up in competition, the Golden Eagles lost 80-75 at Oklahoma State and 87-74 at Iowa. ORU has gone over in 33 of their last 52 as an underdog and 21 of their last 36 road games. I think this one is an over too. 

Cincinnati is 5-2 on the season, but has played three straight overtime games. The Bearcats are not playing their trademark defense right now and are one of the worst outside shooting teams in the country checking in at 28.7% from long range. This team goes as Jarron Cumberland goes and for some reason he has been in and out of the lineup. They have Chris Vogt in the middle and Jaevin Cumberland as well, but this team isn't as deep and has Xavier up next this weekend. Vermont is 6-3 on the year with the losses being by six at UVA, by 5 against Rider in CT and by 13 at Yale last time out. The Catamounts are also shooting terribly from long range and are at 25.5% as a team. Vermont has wins at St. Bonaventure and St. John's already this season and are one of the better defenses in the league. I think they are well worth a look here. 

I'm really having a hard time buying Jameis Winston in this one. Tampa has won two of their last three, but the defense is absolutely atrocious. The Bucs are allowing 30.5 points per game and almost 300 yards through the air per contest. Tampa Bay is 3-8 against the spread this season and I'm just not getting this line move. Jacksonville is a very hard team to back right now as they've lost three straight. The last two weeks Nick Foles has thrown it a bunch of times and they've lost track of Leonard Fournette. Jacksonville's defense has been getting crushed by the run and has been very good against the pass. Since September 29th, they've allowed just two QBs to throw over 250 yards. The Bucs have covered just eight of their last 22 road games. I think this one is a bit extreme so give me the value with the home team.

I'm really having a hard time buying Jameis Winston in this one. Tampa has won two of their last three, but the defense is absolutely atrocious. The Bucs are allowing 30.5 points per game and almost 300 yards through the air per contest. Tampa Bay is 3-8 against the spread this season and I'm just not getting this line move. Jacksonville is a very hard team to back right now as they've lost three straight. The last two weeks Nick Foles has thrown it a bunch of times and they've lost track of Leonard Fournette. Jacksonville's defense has been getting crushed by the run and has been very good against the pass. Since September 29th, they've allowed just two QBs to throw over 250 yards. The Bucs have covered just eight of their last 22 road games. I think this one is a bit extreme so give me the value with the home team.

The Browns and Steelers play just a few weeks after their Thursday night meeting in Cleveland in which Myles Garrett hit Mason Rudolph in the helmet. Well, Garrett's gone and Rudolph is as well with Duck Hodges back under center. Cleveland beat Miami 41-24 at home last week completing the three game home sweep. Cleveland's defense has been playing pretty good here, but the pass rush needs Garrett. The Steelers won 16-10 last week in Cincinnati in the most extreme sandwich spot you could probably ever have. Consistently this season Pittsburgh has been a home underdog and they've covered several times. The Steelers defense is forcing a ton of turnovers and will be highly motivated for this one. Cleveland has been a road favorite three times the last three seasons and they've only won that game outright once. I just think this line is getting a little extreme, but I'll take the home dog once again.  

The Colts have lost three of their last four as they host the Titans on Sunday. Indy will be without Marlon Mack once again as well as T.Y. Hilton which puts a little more pressure on the ground game they want to try and rev up. This team has scored less then 20 points four times in their last seven games as they ask Jacoby Brissett to do less on offense. The Colts defense consistently continues to come up big. It's hard to run on this team which could make things difficult on Derrick Henry. Since allowing 188 yards on the ground to the Raiders, the Colts have held every team to under 115 rushing yards.

Tennessee's offense is hot, but they were home and facing some terrible defenses. Ryan Tannehill has done some great stuff for this side of the ball, but I think they struggle here. The Titans defense is very good against the run and I think both sides have mediocre skill position guys. Way back on September 15th these two teams played in Tennessee with the Colts winning 19-17, but Mariota was under center and Mack and Hilton played. I think this one is a field position game and an under on Sunday. 

Motivation is a powerful factor in this game as Troy hosts Appalachian State. The Trojans are coming off a 53-3 loss at Lafayette in which they got blasted in a bunch of areas. This is an offense that had scored 30 points or more in each of their previous five games before that ugly loss. Kaleb Barker is a very good quarterback and that offense should be able to move the ball enough to keep things interesting. App State is making their way to the Sun Belt title game again so this contest doesn't mean as much right now. They lost their stud wide receiver Sutton last week, so you know they are going to want to run it a lot and get out of dodge with a victory. App State's defense can be beaten through the air with South Carolina and North Carolina putting up over 300 yards. I just think this one is tighter then people expect as Troy is playing for bowl eligibility. Give me the home team. 

The line has gone up two points in the Bills/Cowboys game and I think it gives us some value on the under. Buffalo wants to run the ball ideally and that's going to grind some clock, because Josh Allen doesn't have a ton of weapons and he's a little jittery still in the pocket. This team has gone under in three of their last four because the defense has been solid. They've held each of their last four opponents to 20 points or less. Now, outside of Cleveland, they held down Washington, Miami and Denver who don't exactly have a ton of weapons. Buffalo has tightened up their run defense and of course have a stout secondary with Tre'davious White who will shadow Amari Cooper. The Cowboys offense is very capable of scoring a ton of points, but they are coming off a disappointing effort in New England. The run game just hasn't been the same the last three weeks so I can see them grinding it out with Zeke. Dallas' defense is weaker without Leighton Vander Esch, but once again, I'm not a huge believer in Buffalo's O. The Bills have gone under in 16 of their last 22 road games including 14 of their last 18 as a road underdog. They've gone under in eight of 11 overall this year. Give me the under here. 

Thanksgiving in Detroit as the Lions host the Bears. The two teams played just a few weeks ago when we had the under in a 20-13 Chicago home win. Since then the Bears have played two more unders as they lost 17-7 to the Rams and beat the Giants 19-14. Mitch Trubisky still hasn't figured out this offense and he most likely won't have Taylor Gabriel. The offense has scored over 20 points just twice the last two months. Defensively Chicago has been it's usual fantastic self. Since giving up 36 at home to the Saints, Chicago has allowed 83 points over the last five weeks. I just don't know how much the Lions will get going offensively against Khalil Mack especially if Jeff Driskel is not 100%. David Blough is his backup and that means that he'll be under siege against that pass rush. The Lions defense scares me because they've been getting crushed lately, but once again, can Mitch Trubisky take advantage. Last year this game in Detroit was a 23-16 game which of course goes over this number, but still, it was low scoring and ugly. Give me the under in this one.