St. Bonaventure is 1-4 on the season with lone win coming over Rutgers on a neutral court a couple of weeks ago. The Bonnies offense is pretty putrid with an effective FG% of 44%. They have scored just 53, 59, 65, 80 and 57 this season and are coming off a 61-57 loss to Canisius. Kyle Lofton does a lot of the heavy lifting with Dominick Welch as well. Mercer is 4-2 and they play at a ridiculous pace home and on the road. They have a road win against Illinois Chicago to go along with wins against Florida Gulf Coast and Kennesaw State. The losses came by 30 at St. John's and by 10 at Georgia Southern. This team shoots 41% from long range and is pretty good on the boards as well. I'm just not a fan of the Bonnies. Give me the underdog here.

Portland State and Grambling take the court in Santa Barbara on Tuesday. The Vikings are 2-3 on the year, and are the 39th quickest team in the country. This team has scored 70 or more in every game and has allowed 75 or more to every division one squad. They play very little defense giving up 76 to San Jose State and 82 to Portland. Grambling State is 3-2 with wins over 2 lower level schools and one against SE Louisiana 81-70 on the road. They then followed that up with a 83-76 loss at San Jose St and a 80-58 loss at Oregon State. This team plays even less defense then PSU does. I think this one should see plenty of points on Tuesday. 

New Mexico State is a banged up bunch entering this one on Tuesday. Senior guard Terrell Brown went 0-for-6 from the field and is nursing a strained groin. He's playing another game just a day later and can't be 100%. Trevelin Queen put up 19 points but had six turnovers after he injured some fingers on his right hand last week. Those are two of the more important players on the roster. This team plays very little defense giving up 70 points or more in three straight games. I tried fading USF last time unsuccessfully but they beat Loyola Chicago 66-55 last time out. They are 3rd in KenPom ratings in turnover% at 30.8%. Their defense can be exploited a little bit as shown in their losses to BC and IUPUI. There are things not to like about this team but David Collins and Laquincy Rideau are a solid duo with some other depth pieces. Give me USF here. 

Western Michigan's defense leaves a lot to be desired. They've allowed 70 points or more in all but one contest against a D1 level team. They play with a modest pace, but have plenty of talent offensively led by Michael Flowers, Brandon Johnson and B Artis White. Seattle definitely struggles on the defensive side of the ball having allowed 77 to Bucknell on Monday and 89 to Syracuse. Heck, they even gave up 81 to Pacific Oregon back on November 12th. They are allowing teams to shoot 56.2% from to point land. Seattle's offense isn't shooting very well, but I think they can find some success against the squad from the MAC. Give me the over here. 

Bradley gets the rare crack at a Big 10 team as they take on Northwestern in Fort Myers Florida. The Braves are 4-1 on the season with their only loss coming to St. Joe's on the road 86-81. They then picked up wins over IUPUI, UIC, Norfolk State and Radford. This team is playing some of their trademark defense especially against the three where teams are shooting just 25.2%. Darrell Brown and Elijah Childs are intriguing while Koch Bar patrols the middle.

Northwestern is 2-2 and doesn't do a lot right. Their losses are at home to Merrimack and Radford while the wins are over Providence and Norfolk State. They want to play a slower game as they just don't have a ton of talent. The team has an effective FG% of 41.9% on the season which is good for 318th. They've lost a ton of talent and sometimes the more veteran bunch plays better in a tournament situation. Give me the Braves.

Louisiana Tech heads to Indiana on Monday night as they look to move to 5-1. The Bulldogs only loss came in an 82-72 game at Creighton. Their wins haven't been that impressive with all the teams ranked either 280 or above. La Tech is shooting 56.1% from two point land, but needs to work on their long range output. The defense has been strong for the most part outside of the one game against someone with talent. LT has four double digit scorers led by transfer Kalob Ledoux. 

Indiana is 5-0 and has not left home yet this year. They are shooting 60.8% from two point range and are playing at a moderate pace. The team has scored 98, 85, 91, 100 and 79 this season against opponents ranked 200 or above by Ken Pomeroy. I just think this one should go over the total with both sides finding some success.

Loyola Chicago is 3-2 on the season as they begin a tournament in the Cayman Islands against USF on Monday. The Ramblers have wins over UC Davis, St. Joe's and IUPUI in which they topped 80 points in each contest. They lost at Furman in a blowout and then lost a tight one at home against Coppin State four days later. This team is so efficient on offense shooting 62.9% from two point land with the likes of Cameron Krutwig inside and Tate Hall and Lucas Williamson on the outside.

South Florida is 2-2 on the year with wins over Arkansas Pine Bluff and Wofford to go with losses to BC and IUPUI at home. This offense is pretty awful and the defense is bad against long range shooters. The Bulls want to turn you over and if they can't then they will struggle. The loss of Alexis Yetna hangs over this team as they are just not as strong inside. David Collins and Laquincy Rideau do a lot of the heavy lifting. Give me the team out of the MVC in a tight line here. 

UMBC is 4-2 on the season, but three of their wins came against Valley Forge, St. Mary's of Maryland and Georgian Court. Their only D1 victory came over Florida Gulf Coast 65-61. The Retrievers lost by 27 to LSU and by 17 to Eastern Michigan. This team is horrific offensively with an effective FG% of 39.9 which is good for 334th in the country. They shoot 54% from the FT line and 22.5% from long range. On the other side, you've got Nicholls State who has already played Illinois, Pittsburgh, LSU and Rhode Island. They lost by eight in OT at Illinois, by 10 at LSU, and by 5 at Rhode Island. The Colonels did beat Pittsburgh at their place 75-70. Their offensive numbers aren't great either, but you can see why considering the competition. This team forces a lot of turnovers, but doesn't shoot it great offensively. I think they are the better team and getting points sounds fantastic. 

The Patriots should have lost last week to the Eagles. New England managed around 300 yards of offense, but Tom Brady was constantly harassed and didn't look comfortable. Thankfully for the Pats, their defense continues to be stout and it's what is keeping them with only one loss. Dallas is playing their third road game this month and they are coming off a 35-27 road win at Detroit. The Cowboys have not been able to get their run game on track the last two weeks. Thankfully for them, Dak Prescott has been on target. With these two defenses figuring to be the strongest units, I lean to the under. New England has gone under in 29 of their last 48 overall while Dallas has one under in 12 of their last 22 road games. Give me the under here. 

The Titans are the better team in this matchup although it's a bit of a worry that they are coming off a bye week. Tennessee has won three of their last four and are playing a whole lot better with Ryan Tannehill under center. The loss in that stretch came in Carolina, but this team has also feasted at home as of late. They want to grind it out with Derrick Henry who should be able to run wild on the Jags defense. Tannehill's weapons aren't great, but he's made due with it. The Titans defense has been fantastic for the most part. Yes, Kansas City sliced them up, but they do that to everyone. Before that, Tennessee's D was fantastic. Jacksonville has lost two straight and four of their last six. Last week they threw it too much with a rusty Nick Foles and they figure to run it more with Fournette. As I mentioned above though, you can run on these guys. Indy put up 264 while Houston ran for 216. These two met in Jacksonville on a Thursday night in September with the Jags winning 20-7 at home. That was the Gardner Minshew show, but the offense didn't work that well. Tennessee is 15-6 straight up at home the last three years covering 11 of those contests. In a low scoring affair, I'll go with the better running team. 

Creighton overs have been very good to me and I think they will be again here too. Creighton has scored 81, 69, 82 and 86 points this season as they've had a lot of success from long range. The team is shooting 42.7% from three point land and is 9th on KenPom's adjusted efficiency list. They aren't the deepest team in the world, but they can shoot it and run some offense as well. The problem is on the defensive side where teams are shooting nearly 57% from two point land. Cal Poly's offense is rather weak yet they put up 70 on Friday. North Florida plays at a quicker pace and shoots a ton of three's. When they go in, games like they had against Florida National and Georgia Southern happen in which they put up 80 or more. When they don't go in, the Florida game on opening night happens when they lost 74-59. The team's defense isn't very good and they are allowing opponents to crush them inside. The Ospreys lost 83-68 at Iowa just a few nights ago. Still, I think both offenses find success here and we soar over the total.

The Raiders are 6-4 and one of the best stories in the NFL right now. They head to New York to face the Jets on Sunday and it seems like a poor spot for the team. Oakland has a road game against the Chiefs up next week in a game that's a whole lot more important then this one. They've run off three straight wins over the Lions, Chargers and Bengals at home and are playing good football right now. Still, I'm not a huge believer in the Raiders defense. You can run on them and the last two opponents have. The secondary has put up some good stats, but the Chargers and Bengals passing attack are rather anemic.

On the other side you have the Jets who have won two straight and are finally playing like the team we thought they'd be. The offense put up 34 on the Giants and the Redskins the last two weeks. Sam Darnold is throwing it well with Le'Veon Bell who has been a key piece. The defense has been very good against the run all year and the secondary has actually been alright as of late. I know that teams are getting better with travel when heading east but I think that's a factor as well. Give me the home dog in this one.

Tampa Bay has gone over in eight straight games and I think they do so again on Sunday. The Bucs offense is averaging 27.7 points per game, but they are also giving up over 30 and a lot of that is because they can't stop anyone through the air. Not only that, Jameis Winston is the gift that gives in both directions with touchdown passes and interceptions for touchdowns. He's always good for an interception or two that gives opponents short fields or touchdowns.

Atlanta has won two straight and it's because the offense has played better and the defense has been lights out. I'm not a believer that their D is suddenly as good as allowing 12 points in their last two contests. They gave up 27 to Seattle, 37 to the Rams and 24 to Tennessee at home before that. I think Matt Ryan will be able to connect with Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley early and often. Last year these two teams played a 34-29 contest in Atlanta and a 34-32 one in Tampa Bay. Give me the over in yet another Tampa contest. 

This is such an odd spot for Pittsburgh as it lands in between a pair of games against the Browns. The Steelers offense was absolutely brutal in Cleveland 10 days ago as they put up seven points and had under 250 yards of offense. They will not have James Conner and Juju Smith-Schuster or Maurkice Pouncey in the front line so I don't know how Pittsburgh will score. Mason Rudolph has been exposed as a guy who can't throw deep and doesn't have a ton of weapons. This team has gone under in two straight and four of their last five as the defense has been fantastic. It's hard to run on them and four straight teams have thrown for less then 200 yards. Cincinnati has scored less then 20 points in five straight games as Ryan Finley has shown he's not the answer. Because of that, teams are stacking the box to stop Joe Mixon. The Bengals defense is not the greatest, but they held the Raiders to 17 last week. The Steelers have gone under in 16 of their last 19 on the road. 

Fresno State is a ridiculously banged up bunch right now and I think Nevada has a chance to pick them off. The Wolf Pack are coming off a bye week after winning two in a row over New Mexico and San Diego State. One could say the bye week screwed up their mojo, but I'd like to think it helped focus them up more. The team has struggled to run it and is getting just enough in the passing game to win. Defensively Nevada is playing well against the pass and has held up okay against the run. Fresno State has lost two straight and three of their last four. The defense is riddled with injuries and the offense is just not getting much going especially since the offensive line has a ton of injuries. Fresno State has started three centers, three left tackles and four left guards. I'll take a shot on the under. Nevada has gone under in four straight and six of their last eight. Fresno scored seven points last week vs. San Diego State. Give me the under here. 

Oklahoma is coming off a highly emotional win over Baylor on the road and now they host TCU on Saturday. The Sooners offense is averaging 47 points per game while the defense has allowed 120 points over their last three contests. You can beat OU's defense and one has to wonder if there will be a hangover after last week. TCU has lost four of their last six, but they've gone over the total in four straight and seven of their last eight. The Horned Frogs offense was humming last week in the 33-31 win over Texas Tech in which they put up almost 600 yards of offense. TCU's problem is on defense where they've allowed 24 or more in six straight contests. The last two years these two have played games with scores of 41-17 and 52-27. Quite simply, I think this one will see a lot of points.

Bakersfield's defense has been absolutely hideous this season giving up 100 to San Francisco on the road and 93 at home to South Dakota State. The Roadrunners two wins have come over Notre Dame de Namur and Life Pacific. They also lost 67-55 at Northern Iowa in a 61 possession game. Teams are shooting 48.2% from long range against Bakersfield. Richmond transfer De'Monte Buckingham has been a vital cog to this team this season. Gonzaga has been one of the best offensive teams in the country. They have a effective field goal percentage of nearly 60%. The team is shooting 60.1% from two point land and 38% from long range. The Zags have scored 95, 110, 97, 79 and 72 so far this season. The defense has been very good as well. Still, I think Gonzaga gets to 90 again and we go over the total.

Wake Forest has their final home game of the season as they host Duke. The offense has collapsed with the loss of WRs Surratt and Washington and it showed last week against Clemson. Jamie Newman was harassed into all sorts of issues. He does still have Kendall Hinton, but it's just not the same. It's a worry that Wake plays with a bit of pace, but that doesn't matter if you are going three and out. Wake's defense is bad, but at home they held NC State to 10 points and FSU to 20.

Duke has scored just 44 points the last four weeks. Their offense has collapsed big time with Quentin Harris regressing and opponents stacking the box against the run. The Blue Devil defense has shown up at times although last week getting blasted by Syracuse was a worry. They've gone under in 12 of their last 18 as an underdog and 10 of their last 15 on the road. To me, this one should be played a little closer to the vest. The weather is going to be rainy so the passing games may be hampered a bit. I think this one is an under. 

This line confuses me as Cincinnati has been living on the edge during this current win streak. The Bearcats are coming off a narrow 20-17 win at South Florida in which they passed for just 78 yards. The defense was gashed by the Bulls and had to hold on for dear life. Just a few weeks before that, Cincy beat a woeful ECU team 46-43 at their place and they allowed over 500 yards in that one. The offense hasn't been great at times this season and the defense is very exploitable. 

Temple has won two straight since a brief two game losing streak. The Owls held down a pretty good Tulane offense last week and can still win the AAC with two wins and some help. The Owls offense can run it and Anthony Russo is capable of winning games too. Yes, Temple's defense has struggled against athletes, but does Cincy have enough of them? Their quarterback is very mediocre and Temple has dominated this series as of late. They beat Cincinnati at home 24-17 last year after knocking them off 35-24 on the road in 2017. Give me the underdog here.

Boise State is 2-2 on the season after an emotional overtime win over BYU last time out at home 72-68. The Broncos had lost to Oregon 106-75 and UC Irvine 69-60 with the other win coming over Life Pacific 126-49. There's a lot of peripherals that aren't great involving this team. They are shooting 20.6% from long range and are allowing teams to shoot 55.6% from 2 point land and 41.7% from long range. Pacific is 5-2 on the year with most of their wins coming against pure garbage. They've beaten Cal St. Stanislaus, Pacific Union, Florida A&M, UC Riverside and Coppin State with the losses coming to South Dakota and Hawaii. This is one of the slowest teams in the country with their average possessions taking 20 seconds. Still, they are pretty efficient offensively and are playing pretty good defense. I think Boise could be hung over and not ready for this one after the quick turnaround. Give me the home dog in this one.

Louisiana Monroe has lost three of their last four and it's because of a very leaky defense and an offense that has gone through some awful stretches. The Warhawks have scored 115 points the last three weeks, but have also given up 130 on defense. The last four opponents have rushed for 200 yards or more on them. I really like Caleb Evans as a quarterback. He threw for 291 yards and three touchdowns two weeks ago against Georgia State and is facing a team with seven sophomores or freshmen in their top eight of the depth chart in the secondary. Coastal has lost five of their last six and it's because of a lot of injuries too. They have allowed 28 or more in seven straight contests as you can torch them in the secondary. The Chanticleers have gone over in 10 of their last 18 on the road. The last two scores in this series were 51-43 and 45-20. Give me the over here. 

I'm fading Fordham whenever I get the chance especially with a short line here. The Rams were outclassed yesterday when we took Nevada against them. They play good defense, but they don't score a ton. Grand Canyon has been very disappointing so far as they are waiting for some talent to get cleared next month. Still, a few of their losses were excusable to Illinois and San Diego State. They beat the bad teams on their slate Arkansas Pine Bluff by 13 and Montana State also by 13. It was a tough loss last time out against Valpo 78-74. This team is not as deep as I'd like but once again, I think Fordham is hideous. Give me the Antelopes here.

Appalachian State is 9-1 and Texas State is 3-7. The Bobcats have allowed 33.2 points per contest and over 400 yards per tilt as well. TSU on the road has lost by 30 at SMU, 24 at Ark State and 28 at Louisiana Lafayette. They got crushed at home last time out 63-27 by Troy and App State's offense is a lot better. Appalachian State is steamrolling folks at home outside of the Georgia Southern loss. The Mountaineers have a 19 point win over Coastal Carolina and a 45 point win there over Louisiana Monroe. Yes, a road game against Troy is next, but it's senior day and App State can't afford to slip up when they are playing for a New Year's Day bowl. This one should be over by halftime. 

I've taken overs in both teams' games this season and of course will look to do so when they play each other. Davidson is 2-2 with wins over UNC Wilmington and Nevada and losses to Auburn and Charlotte. The Wildcats have scored 178 points in their last two victories despite playing 67 and 68 possession games. They are one of the slowest teams in the country and they allow teams to shoot almost 58% from two point land. Kellan Grady and Jon Axel Gudmundsson are a very potent duo, but they've got solid role players too. Wake Forest is 2-2 with wins against Columbia and UNC Asheville to go with losses to BC and Charlotte. Wake's defense is rather porous allowing 79 to the Bulldogs and 77 to the Eagles. Andrien White is a solid addition coming over from Charlotte to go along with Brandon Childress and Chaundee Brown. Olivier Sarr is the seven footer for the Demon Deacons. Wake won this game 67-63 last year as a two point underdog. I just think this one goes over the lower total on Friday.

McNeese State will play their fifth road game of the season already as they come in 2-4 into this matchup. The Cowboys have allowed 75 or more to every one of their D1 opponents as their two wins have come against Southern New Orleans and Arlington Baptist. These guys gave up 90 to New Mexico, 83 to Wisconsin, 85 to Louisiana and 75 to Western Michigan. They aren't bad offensively with an effective FG% of 55.1 which is well above average in basketball right now. Richmond is 3-0 on the year and they've scored 100, 93 and 90 so far this season. They are actually 8th in the effective FG% category themselves. The Spiders have a fantastic offense that is capable of putting up 90 themselves. Their defense has struggled at times giving up 98 to St. Francis of PA and 92 to Vanderbilt, granted both were in overtimes. Opponents are shooting 42% from long range against Richmond. I think this team is an over team this season and will be looking to jump on it when possible. 

Fordham is 3-0 this season, but their wins came over St. Francis of NY, Fairleigh Dickinson and Marist. In those games, they showed how limited they were offensively with 68, 53 and 58 points scored respectively. They shoot 42.1% from two point range and 52.2% from the free throw line. Fordham's defense has been good, but none of those teams are very potent. Nevada is 2-3, but they've challenged themselves a lot more. The Wolf Pack beat Loyola Marymount by five and UT-Arlington by 7. The losses came by 5 to Utah, by 10 to USC and by 20 at Davidson. This team shoots it well, but struggles a little bit on defense. They don't force enough turnovers. Still, I like Jazz Johnson and Lindsey Drew along with Jalen Harris from Louisiana Tech. I'm going to take my chances on a neutral court with the better team and a reasonable line. 

St. Joe's is one of the fastest teams in the country with the ninth fastest adjusted tempo as every game has been 70 possessions or more. The Hawks defense is rather porous allowing 81 to Bradley, 82 to ODU, 87 to UConn, 85 to Loyola Chicago and 70 to Florida. Teams are shooting 41.2% from long range against them. The offense has actually been better then people think with Ryan Daly and Taylor Funk being their better weapons. Missouri State is one of the slowest teams in the country, but their offense can be pretty efficient. They put up 73 at home on Cleveland State and 70 on Miami yesterday in a game that saw 67 possessions. I think these two should be able to put up some points on Friday afternoon. Give me the over here. I think the Hawks go over the majority of the time. 

The Rockets offense has been fantastic so far this season shooting 47.3% from long range and 54.7% from up close. Toledo has scored 70 or more in all four games with the lowest total being 70 against Robert Morris in a 65 possession game. Marreon and Willie Jackson are pretty strong along with Luke Knapke patrolling the middle. Defensively teams are shooting every 15.8 seconds or so during their possession. Notre Dame is 4-1 since a 76-65 loss to North Carolina on the road. Outside of a 61 possession game against Presbyterian, this team has played games at 70 or more. During this home stretch against cupcakes, the Irish have put up 92, 79, 74 and 63. Toledo has gone over in 18 of their last 30 road games including 10 of 15 as a road underdog. I think this total is too low for two potent offenses. 

Marshall is 1-3 on the season and have lost three straight since a 67-60 win over Robert Morris. The Thundering Herd have lost 96-70 to Toledo, 74-64 to Notre Dame and 76-66 to Charleston. Marshall is currently running the 11th fastest adjusted tempo with the sixth quickest average possession length of 14 seconds. The Thundering Herd's offense hasn't been good enough, but I think they could find the success they need here. Taevion Kinsey and Jarrod West are the leaders here. Howard is 0-5 and is ranked 348th in defensive adjusted efficiency. This team has given up 70 or more to all of their opponents and somehow lost at home to Washington Adventist who is a level below. Howard's last loss was a 73 possession contest against Toledo 112-68. Teams are shooting 62.3% from two point range against the Bison. Give me the over here. 

The Falcons are 2-2 on the season and I think we are getting them at a good price here on the neutral court in the Bahamas. Air Force teams don't get distracted by exotic locales and things like that. This is a veteran bunch who is very capable of winning a game or two in this tourney. The Falcons have wins over Texas State and Army with losses to Idaho State and TCU. Lavelle Scottie and Ryan Swan are two of the many players who will score some points. Last game against the Horned Frogs we saw Air Force have not a single double digit scorer yet they were hanging tough. The Lions are 1-2 so far with the win over Westcliff to go with losses to Nevada and Colorado State. Yes, this team lost by five at Nevada, but they play at a slow pace and are allowing teams to shoot almost 60% from two point land. Mattias Markusson is redshirting this year and he would have made a big difference for this Loyola Marymount team. Give me the Air Force in essentially a pick'em situation. 

The Gauchos are one of the slowest teams in the country, yet they are really effective on offense shooting 63% from two point land. They are 1-2 with a 83-62 win over Jackson State to go with a 77-61 loss to UCLA and a crushing 82-81 loss to Rice in which they were up really big. UCSB is allowing teams to shoot nearly 44% from long range. Max Heidegger is an underrated guard and JaQuori McLaughlin and Matt Freeman are key pieces too. Oregon State also plays slow yet they are effective as well. This team has wins over CSUN (87-67), Iowa State (80-74) and Wyoming (83-63) to go with a 77-69 loss to Oklahoma. Tres Tinkle is one of those guys who feel like he's been in school forever which is the ultimate complement. Ethan Thompson is pretty good and Kylor Kelley is a solid seven foot center. Give me the over here. 

SFA is 4-0 on the season with four home wins over LeTourneau, NC Central, Niagara and Drexel. They've scored 80 points or more in each contest and are hitting just over 55% of their two pointers. Also of importance, they are turning people over at a 34.6% clip which is number one according to KenPom. The problem is that when they aren't turning you over, then they are giving up baskets. Rutgers is 3-1 with home wins over Bryant, Niagara and Drexel to go with a neutral court loss to St. Bonaventure. The Scarlet Knights beat Bryant by two and Drexel by 5 at home. They prefer a slower game because they don't have a ton of offensive weapons. Also, this team does not shoot very well from long range with a 28% from three point land. I just don't think they are good enough to lay this many points to a competent opponent. I like Kyle Keller as a coach and think he has a little bit of an advantage here as well. 

NKU is 3-1 on the season with wins over Cincinnati Clermont, Coastal Carolina and Coppin State. The Norse are playing at a slower pace, but are 1-1 away from home with the loss coming 71-56 at Missouri. This team's shooting 52.3% from two point range and are holding teams to just 25.8% from long range. They've got four solid scorers with Tyler Sharpe, Karl Harris and Trevon Faulkner forming a solid backcourt along side Dantez Walton up front. Ball State is 3-1, but their wins were against Defiance, UIC and Indiana State. They are putting up solid defensive numbers, but the competition is pretty weak with the loss coming 79-75 at Evansville. Tahjai Teague and KJ Walton are a pretty solid duo. Ball State is 8-16 against the spread in their last 24 home games and have covered just 15 of their last 40 as a favorite. I like the underdog in this one to make things interesting. 

Boston College is 3-1 on the season and is coming off a tough 100-85 home loss to Belmont on Saturday. The Eagles had been pretty good offensively beating Wake 77-70, South Florida 74-60 and High Point 59-33. In each game they went over 70 possessions with Derryck Thornton leading the way. This offense isn't the greatest in terms of talent, but the defense can be rather leaky against decent offenses. Eastern Washington wants to play with some pace on both ends of the floor. They beat Portland Bible 107-25 and Seattle 74-66 before falling 82-60 to St. Louis. The offensive numbers aren't that great, but the defensive numbers are so poor that I think the home team will do a lot of the heavy lifting. BC has gone over in 21 of their last 33 games when the total is in the 140s. They've also gone over in 19 of their last 33 home games including two of three this season. Give me the over here. 

Louisiana Tech/Creighton was my 5% play on Saturday as an over play. The Bulldogs lost 82-72 in a game that saw them have 71 possessions. This team is shooting almost 57% from two point land and already has scored 82 and 98 in their other two contests. Their defense has had a little bit of an issue especially against three point shooting. One of the fastest teams and worst defenses in the league resides in Mississippi Valley State. They've lost games 110-74 to Iowa State, 143-49 to Utah, 134-78 to Central Michigan and 91-81 to Western Michigan. The Delta Devils are allowing teams to shoot 61.7% from two point land and 41.5% from three point land. The average possession length on defense is 13.1 seconds which is the fastest in basketball. Give me the over here as I think the Bulldogs get to at least 90. 

Kent State is 3-0 on the season, playing just their second home game. This team has wins over Hiram (97-58), Towson (84-80, OT) and Wright State (72-71). They are a modestly paced team who has had 72 possessions or more in all three contests. There is plenty to like about this team with Philip Whittington, Danny Pippen and Antonio Williams. Fort Wayne is 2-3 on the year and as long as the numbers are reasonable, I will take the over in their game. This team has allowed 80 points to Manchester, 86 to UNLV, 79 to SEMO and 84 to Miami-Ohio. Now their offense has scored 70 or more in every game themselves and are shooting 54.5% from two point range. Jon Konchar is gone, but they have a little more balance this year. Fort Wayne has gone over in 23 of their last 31 road games while KSU has gone over in 16 of their last 28 at home. Give me the over here. 

Nevada is 2-2 on the young season with home wins over Loyola Marymount (72-67) and UT-Arlington (80-73) to go with losses to Utah (79-74) and USC (76-66). Every game was played with 70 possessions or more as this team averages just 15 seconds per possession. The Wolf Pack are playing pretty well against the long range shooters but are allowing teams to shoot better then 50% from two point land. Jazz Johnson and Lindsey Drew are the leading returnees to a team that saw a lot of graduations. Jalen Harris is another contributor who comes over from Louisiana Tech. Davidson is a disappointing 1-2 so far with the win coming Saturday against UNC Wilmington 87-49. They had some tough losses against Auburn and Charlotte. This offense has way too much talent to continue to struggle with Kellan Grady and Jon Axel Gudmundsson leading the way. This is one of the slower paced teams in the country which is why the total is lower. I still think this one should go over with these two offenses who can score. 

Georgia State is 1-2 on the year with the win coming over Brewton Parker 104-35 and the losses coming to Charleston (84-80) and Duke (74-63). The Panthers are averaging the 20th least average possession length meaning they want to play quickly. GSU is allowing an awful 44.2% offensive rebounds to their opponent. This team has no problems playing a game with over 70 possessions. Georgetown is another quick shooting team. They are 2-1 with an 81-68 win over Mt. St Mary's and a 89-78 win over Central Arkansas. They are coming off an 81-66 loss at home to Penn State and are staring at a game against Texas next. Omer Yurtseven should have a field day against this smaller team. I think this one should see plenty of possessions and plenty of points. 

I think there's some value here with the lower total in the UCF/ISU game. Central Florida is 1-1 with a 73-69 home win over Prairie View A&M and a 79-70 loss at home to Miami. The win featured 72 possessions with the loss featuring 69. Ideally, this team does not want to go fast, but their defense isn't as strong with Tacko Fall not patrolling the middle anymore. Teams are shooting 39% from long range against them. The leaders are Dazon Ingram and Matt Milon who are transfers into the program along with Collin Smith and Ceasar DeJesus. Illinois State is 2-0 beating Belmont 79-72 and Little Rock 75-70 in a pair of 69 possession games. Illinois State is hitting 46% of their threes but are allowing opponents to make 60.9% of their two pointers. The Redbirds are led by Zach Copeland and have Ricky Torres who came over from Wichita State. UCF has gone over in 14 of their last 25 when the total is in the 130s. Last year this game was a 77-56 home victory for the Knights, but as I said, it had Tacko Fall who made a huge difference. I think this one can go over the lower total. 

I think the price here is great for the Colts as they get Jacoby Brissett back. Yes, Indy has lost two straight, but the offense should be better with Brissett under center. I think some people are down on this team after a 16-12 home loss to the Dolphins. The defense has held five straight opponents to less then 115 yards on the ground and three straight opponents to less then 200 yards passing. Jacksonville has won two of their last three and have put in Nick Foles under center. I think there's a shot that they are rusty and a bit off with him there. I know they've had a bye week to help install stuff, but there's no guarantee Jacksonville will be great. Indy has one  of the best offensive lines in football and a very underrated defense. Give me the home team here. 

The Saints and Bucs met in New Orleans back on October 6th and the Saints won 31-24 and that was with Teddy Bridgewater under center. New Orleans had the oddest loss of the season last week falling 26-9 to Atlanta at home. In that one they ran for just 52 yards and didn't manage a touchdown against one of the worst defenses in the league. Even worse for New Orleans, they will be without Marshon Lattimore which means Mike Evans could go crazy. Tampa Bay has scored 64 points the last two weeks against the Seahawks and Cardinals. This team has gone over in seven straight because the offense is rolling and the defense has allowed 30 or more five times. The Bucs secondary is very vulnerable with six of their last eight opponents throwing for over 300 yards against them. This one seems like an over to me. 

Detroit is playing Jeff Driskel once again as they host Dallas on Sunday. The Lions have lost five of their last six games since starting out 2-0-1. Detroit's offense last week managed just 13 points and 357 yards total. Driskel is not going to scare anyone deep and this team can't run it either. The one thing I do think is that the defense can slow down Dallas enough to keep this under going. This is an odd spot for the Cowboys off two straight primetime contests with New England coming up next week. I have a feeling they will want to get Zeke Elliott going after they ran for only 50 yards against the Vikings. The Cowboys defense should be able to do some solid work against the Lions. The line has adjusted for Driskel's appearance, but not the total. Dallas has gone under in 12 of their last 21 road games. Give me the under here. 

I think this line is giving too much respect to a still bad Atlanta team. The Falcons had lost six straight before this odd victory in New Orleans. The ATL offense lacks weapons outside of Julio Jones and the defense still isn't very good. During the six game losing skid, Atlanta lost four games by 7 points or more. Carolina has won five of their last seven and is coming off a frustrating loss to Green Bay in which they were one yard short of potentially tying it. This team has played just four games at home this season going 2-2 there. Kyle Allen has been very good and Christian McCaffrey has been the secret MVP candidate. The Panthers defense has been good against mediocre run teams and has held six opponents to 225 yards passing or less. Atlanta has won three straight in this series, but I think the Panthers get the win here.

Troy is 0-2 on the season as they head to Indiana on Saturday. The Trojans lost 76-75 to UAB and 74-68 to Chattanooga with both games being at home. Their defensive adjusted efficiency is pretty bad meaning Indiana should be able to get whatever they want. Darian Adams averages 16 points through two games and is 8-of-14 from long range. He's got Charles Norman and KJ Simon with him in the backcourt. Troy has been shooting 40.7% from long range, but they are not doing much from the free throw line. Indiana is 3-0 as they take on the low of the low's in the KenPom rankings. They beat WIU 98-65, Portland State 85-74 and North Alabama 91-65. In each game except one they had over 70 possessions and at times struggled defensively. The Hoosiers are allowing opponents to shoot 40.7% from long range. Indiana has gone over in 12 of their last 17 November games including all three this year. I think this one goes over the total as well.

Stetson is 2-0 entering their game against Fort Wayne on Saturday. The Hatters went 7-24 last year, but have some talent back under new head coach Donnie Jones. They beat Trinity Baptist 84-26 in game one and then followed it up with a road win at Western Illinois 77-75. This team has been very efficient on offense through two games shooting almost 55% from two point land and 45% from long range. They have not been forcing turnovers though and are pretty bad on defense. The Mastodons are 1-3 with a 91-80 win over Manchester to go with losses of 86-71 to UNLV, 79-78 to SEMO and 84-80 to Miami-Ohio. Defensively, this team is rather awful ranking 319th in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency. They are shooting well from the field themselves, but are allowing teams to shoot 54.5% from two and 37.1% from three. I've said it before and I'll say it again...this team's overs are almost instabets for the most part. They play with pace and can't stop anyone.

UNC Wilmington is 2-1 on the season and is at Davidson on Saturday. The Seahawks wins came 103-83 over Johnson and Wales and 81-76 against Campbell with the loss being 78-62 to UNC. This team plays little to no defense and hasn't the past few years. Davidson is 0-2 and will probably use this game to get a lot of frustrations out after losing 76-66 to Auburn and 71-58 to Charlotte. Kellan Grady and Jon Axel Gudmundsson are too good to see this team continue to lose like this. Their starting five is very good and will want to exorcise some demons. Last year this game was 91-85 on the road and 108-81 at home for Davidson. UNC Wilmington has gone over in 11 of their last 12 games with a total in the 140s. I think this one continues that trend.

Louisiana Tech returns four starters and are led by McNeese State transfer Kalob Ledoux who is averaging 15.5 points per game for the Bulldogs. Ledoux is shooting 7-of-17 from deep and is a good complementary scorer to DaQuan Bracey who is more of a distributor. The lineup also includes JaColby Pemberton who plays bigger then his 6'5" frame. This team wants to play fast forcing 49 turnovers in two games so far. Creighton's depth has been challenged, but their coach says that they are going to continue to keep things fast. The Blue Jays are 1-1 with an 81-55 win over Kennesaw State and a 79-69 loss to Michigan. This team is 6th in KenPom's adjusted efficiency. They are allowing opponents to shoot 58% from two point land. To me, this is an over with both teams wanting to go. 

Georgia Tech may be one of the best two win teams in America after another close shave in Charlottesville last week. The Jackets are one of the best teams against the pass holding teams to under 200 yards per game on average. Georgia Tech has actually struggled more it seems at home where they lost to The Citadel back in September as a 27 point favorite. The Hokies are playing some great football right now having won four of five since the Duke loss. The offense worked very well against the Demon Deacons and they slowed down their vaunted attack as well. Tech and UVA are the only two teams that control their own destiny in the Coastal right now. With regards to this game, I think it's a bad spot for the Hokies as they head down to Atlanta. They are coming off a highly charged emotional win for Bud Foster and have another home game against a Coastal foe in Pittsburgh next. I think focus could be an issue here and I wish I was getting more points. The play is Georgia Tech plus the points. I don't know if they win, but it's going to be tight.

Two of the lesser offenses in the SEC play as Vandy hosts Kentucky. The Wildcats have gone under in six straight games as their O has gone really anemic. Kentucky has scored just 109 points over their last seven contests. A lot of that has to do with injuries at quarterback, but Sawyer Smith is healthier and Lynn Bowden is still playing at quarterback. The good thing for them is that their defense has been really good. The last three weeks this team has allowed 45 points and that included 21 in the pouring rain against Georgia. It's very hard to run on these guys and their secondary has held six straight opponents to less then 220 yards through the air. Vandy will have Riley Neal under center which will help them. The Commodores have scored 44 points the last five games and have gone under in five of their last six. Vandy's defense is nothing special, but they've spent a lot of time on the field. This team held South Carolina to 24 and Missouri to 14. Last year this was a 14-7 game with two better teams. I think we could see something similar here.

Two of the lesser offenses in the SEC play as Vandy hosts Kentucky. The Wildcats have gone under in six straight games as their O has gone really anemic. Kentucky has scored just 109 points over their last seven contests. A lot of that has to do with injuries at quarterback, but Sawyer Smith is healthier and Lynn Bowden is still playing at quarterback. The good thing for them is that their defense has been really good. The last three weeks this team has allowed 45 points and that included 21 in the pouring rain against Georgia. It's very hard to run on these guys and their secondary has held six straight opponents to less then 220 yards through the air. Vandy will have Riley Neal under center which will help them. The Commodores have scored 44 points the last five games and have gone under in five of their last six. Vandy's defense is nothing special, but they've spent a lot of time on the field. This team held South Carolina to 24 and Missouri to 14. Last year this was a 14-7 game with two better teams. I think we could see something similar here.

This should be a fun one in the CAA on Saturday. One has to wonder where the Spiders heads are at after blowing last week vs. Villanova. It was a 35-28 loss to the Wildcats in which Nova was able to do whatever they wanted in the second half. Richmond's offense has some potential to move the ball even on James Madison's stout defense. Joe Mancuso has been very good as a dual threat quarterback lately. The Spiders defense has talent, but on the road they've given up 45 at BC, 25 at Delaware and the aforementioned 35 to the Cats. JMU has faced five ranked opponents their last six games and they have scored 54, 27, 38, 45 and 45. They want to run it, but also have threats outside. It's a rivalry game so you know that the Dukes will score a little extra if they get the chance to. JMU overs have been very profitable to me and I'm going to keep pounding them.

Coastal Carolina's defense figures to get smashed in this game as their secondary has been ravaged by injuries. CCU has allowed over 700 yards through the air at home against Troy and Lafayette. The Chanticleers offense was poor last week scoring seven points. Before that, they had a stretch of six straight games scoring 21 or more. I think they can move the ball on Arkansas State who has given up 35 or more in four of their last five and five of their last seven. Even Southern Illinois put up 28 on the Red Wolves. Layne Hatcher has been great for their offense though as this team is cruising offensively. They put up 35 or more on UNLV, SIU, Troy, Georgia State, Texas State and UL-Monroe. ASU has gone over in four of their last six. This game last year was a 44-16 ASU win on the road which followed a 51-17 victory back in 2017. Coastal is 10-4-3 to the over in their last 17 road games. Give me the over here.

Towson has won three of their last four after a three game losing streak. The Tigers offense is very capable putting up 31 each of the last two weeks at home against Delaware and on the road at Stony Brook. Tom Flacco is putting up fantastic numbers for the Tigers with 2,426 yards passing to go with 18 touchdowns and four interceptions. One of his main targets is Shane Leatherbury who has 44 receptions and nine touchdown catches. Defensively, Towson is allowing over 400 yards of offense. Villanova was able to score 52, Albany 38, JMU 27 and Delaware 24. The Tribe have scored 25, 31 and 55 points their last three weeks against the likes of Maine, Elon and Rhode Island. This team continues to run the go-go offense which means that they are running a ton of plays and putting pressure on their opponents. When it doesn't work, that puts their defense early and often. They are giving up over 400 yards of offense themselves. Towson is desperate to keep their playoff hopes alive and I think this one sees a boatload of points.

This seems like way too many points in this game. Florida is coming off a 56-0 win at home against Vanderbilt. The Gators defense was massive and their offense was great too. UF's defense has been good for the most part outside of giving up 42 to LSU on the road. They held UGA to 24, Auburn to 13 and Tennessee to 3. The thing is Missouri's defense is also really good. The secondary has been fantastic against the pass and it matches up well with the Gators. The under has hit in seven of their last eight games. Kelly Bryant is back after missing last week, but is he going to be rusty. The Tigers scored just 21 points during their three game road stretch at Vandy, Kentucky and Georgia. I think this is way too many points and I'll take the under. 

Akron basketball is 1-1 entering the season and the Zips are playing with a better pace then they have in the past. This team has an 81-64 win over Malone to go with a 94-84 loss at West Virginia. The two games were played with 72 and 84 possessions so I expect something in that area again on Friday. Xeyrius Williams comes over from Dayton and he's been a big addition to go along with Tyler Cheese who is a combo guard. NC Central is 1-1 with a 94-64 loss to Stephen F Austin on the road and a 73-64 home win over USC Upstate. The Eagles are not very efficient offensively and are much worse defensively. The one thing they do well is shoot from long range where they are hitting at a 44.4% clip. These two teams should be able to go over the lower total. NC Central is slower, but clearly doesn't mind playing with some pace.

Western Michigan is a very competent team entering this one against Ole Miss. The Broncos have wins over McNeese State (75-65), Milwaukee (115-110 3OT) and Mississippi Valley State (91-81). This is their first tough game of the season, but I really like Michael Flowers and Jason Whitens who are the veteran leaders of this team along with Brandon Johnson and Artis White. Ole Miss is 2-0, but their wins have come at home over Arkansas State (71-43) and Norfolk State (68-55). They are led by KJ Buffen inside and have Devontae Shuler and Breein Tyree chipping in with double digit points. I just think this is way too many points for a team that can score and play a little bit of defense.

Missouri State is 2-1 on the season so far. They lost their opener 67-66 to Little Rock and then followed it up with a 59-50 win over Alabama State and a 73-53 victory over Cleveland State. I think this team will be a factor in the Missouri Valley race and has a nice mix of talent. Tulio Da Silva and Keandre Cook are studs with Tyrik Dixon coming over from Middle Tennessee and Lamont West from West Virginia. Xavier is 3-0 with a 19 point win over Jacksonville, an 18 point win over Siena and a 5 point overtime victory over Missouri. The Musketeers are outscoring their first three opponents 113-76 in the first half with a score of 95-95 in the second half. It's a bit concerning that the Bears coach has talked about the team finding their identity, but the talent is there. I think they make things interesting here.

Cleveland State may be the worst team in the country and they take on South Carolina on Friday night. The Vikings are 1-2 with a 79-54 win over Edinboro to go with a 35 point loss at Minnesota and a 20 point loss at Missouri State. CSU's defense is one of the worst in the country as they are allowing 39.4% of the opponents misses to be offensively rebounded. South Carolina has the best effective FG% defense according to Ken Pomeroy. They have a 22 point home win over North Alabama and a 34 point home win over Wyoming on the docket. This is a mismatch and I think they get the easy win on Friday.

East Tennessee State's offense is in incredible form right now. The Bucs are shooting 50% from long range and 69.4% from two point land. Granted, their two wins were 79-50 over Newberry and 92-75 over Tennessee Martin. This team wants to play with some pace and I've made money on their overs in the past. Jeremy Rodriguez are among the studs along with Lucas N'Guessan who is a very athletic seven footer. Winthrop is going to be happy to play with some pace finally. In their two wins on the road, they grinded out a 67-57 win at Hartford and a 61-59 victory at St. Mary's. Winthrop's one loss was at Fresno and it was played at a quicker pace in a 77-74 loss. It could be an issue for this team that they've been on the road all year long and it's their fourth game in a week. We'll see if it shows up, but I think the over is worth a look here. 

Vandy is 2-0 this season with a 83-65 win over SEMO and a 71-66 victory over Texas A&M Corpus Christi. So far under Jerry Stackhouse they are playing a little bit slower then we thought with average possessions around 18 seconds. Aaron Nesmith is one of their biggest stars with Saben Lee also being someone to watch for the Commodores. Richmond's tinkering with new defenses and they didn't exactly show much of it in a 100-98 overtime win over St. Francis of PA. The Spiders offense is going to be one of the best in the country but they allowed the Red Flashes to shoot 50% from long range and offensively rebound 36.6% of their shots. The one thing to watch here is the status of Grant Golden. Golden turned his ankle and is a game time decision. Richmond has gone over in 20 of their last 30 lined games and 24 of their last 36 when the total is in the 140s. I think this one is a bit higher scoring then the total says. 

The Roadrunners are 1-1 on the season with a win over Notre Dame de Namur and a 2OT loss to South Dakota State at home. UCSB wants to play at a slower pace and has averaged just under 21 seconds per possession so far this year. Rod Barnes is a fantastic coach and has done very good things with this team. De'Monte Buckingham comes over from Richmond and has been very good for this team. He's had at least 10 points and five rebounds in both games this season. On the other side you've got UNI who may actually be slower then UCSB with the 343rd adjusted tempo. They have a 58-53 win over ODU and a 64-54 victory over NIU on the docket. I realize there's a talent discrepancy in this one, but this potentially is an underdog getting five possessions in a contest that could see around 65 on each side.

Fort Wayne overs are almost insta-bets for me as this team loves playing with pace and don't play defense very well. Miami-Ohio lost their opener 88-81 to Wright State at home in a game that saw 79 possessions. The Redhawks are led by Nike Sibande and Dalonte Brown as well as Bam Bowman. The lineup is also bolstered by Isaiah Coleman-Landis who played just five games last year. This team wants to run a bit and may be able to do whatever they want against the Dons. Fort Wayne is 1-2 with a 91-80 win over Manchester to go with a 86-71 loss to UNLV and a 79-78 defeat at the hands of SEMO. In each of those games they had at least 70 possessions. Traditionally, this team has been an over and we already hit the one in the SEMO game. Even without Jon Konchar, Jarred Godfrey, Matt Holba, Dylan Carl and Marcus DeBerry are not a bad group of weapons. 

Mike Morrell has some talent finally in UNC Asheville as they take on Wake Forest. The Bulldogs lost 78-63 to Tennessee on the road in game one, but then went to The Citadel and picked up a 91-76 win. These guys were the youngest team in basketball last year, but also added Lavar Batts and Jax Levitch from some solid programs as well. Batts has yet to make the predicted impact for them as he's got just 13 points in 37 minutes played and he's had nine fouls as well. DeVon Baker and Tajion Jones are two of their better players as well. Wake Forest wants to play with some pace as well and they didn't do it last time out against Columbia winning 65-63. The Demon Deacons are taking just under 15 seconds a possession on offense. They lost to BC back in game one 77-70 on the road with both games going over 70 possessions. Andrien White has been a solid pickup this offseason to go along with Brandon Childress and Olivier Sarr. 

Mike Morrell has some talent finally in UNC Asheville as they take on Wake Forest. The Bulldogs lost 78-63 to Tennessee on the road in game one, but then went to The Citadel and picked up a 91-76 win. These guys were the youngest team in basketball last year, but also added Lavar Batts and Jax Levitch from some solid programs as well. Batts has yet to make the predicted impact for them as he's got just 13 points in 37 minutes played and he's had nine fouls as well. DeVon Baker and Tajion Jones are two of their better players as well. Wake Forest wants to play with some pace as well and they didn't do it last time out against Columbia winning 65-63. The Demon Deacons are taking just under 15 seconds a possession on offense. They lost to BC back in game one 77-70 on the road with both games going over 70 possessions. Andrien White has been a solid pickup this offseason to go along with Brandon Childress and Olivier Sarr. 

This is a rare opportunity for a program like South Alabama to get a power five school in their building. Last year the Tigers steamrolled the Jaguars 101-58 as 20.5 point favorites. South Alabama is 2-0 with an 82-51 win over Pikeville and a 75-69 win over Southern Miss. They lost 78-75 to Mississippi State in an exhibition game as well. This team wants to play with a little bit of pace and has played some good defense as well. I really like their roster with Josh Ajayi leading the way at 21.5 points and 10 rebounds per game. They've got three other double digit scorers and some depth as well. Auburn beat Georgia Southern 83-74 then knocked off Davidson 76-66 in a game that should have gone over but didn't. The Tigers roster hasn't been completely gutted from last year with Samir Doughty, Austin Wiley, J'Von McCormick and Danjel Purifoy among the contributors. Auburn has gone over in 18 of their last 29 when the total is in the 140s. I think this one is an over as well. 

North Texas gets the chance to get a win on Tuesday when they travel to Arkansas. The Mean Green beat Oklahoma Christian 79-40 and then lost 59-56 to VCU on the road in a game that saw them go down big but come back in the end. UNT has a ton of talent with Zachary Simmons and Umoja Gibson among the talented players. Also the Mean Green are one of the slowest teams in the country so they won't let this game get away from them necessarily. Arkansas has had a week off since beating Rice 91-43. Their roster is rather small and could struggle with a guy like Simmons. Still, Isaiah Joe, Mason Jones and Adrio Bailey are among the important guys here. UNT has covered 18 of their last 31 road contests and 13 of their last 21 as a road underdog. I think this is too many points. 

Walter McCarty brings Evansville to Kentucky for a game on Tuesday. The Purple Aces want to run and run and run as evidenced by their 79-75 win over Ball State last weekend. DeAndre Williams had 26 points and nine rebounds in the win with Sam Cunliffe chipping in 17. Last year in big games out of conference this team lost 99-60 at Illinois and 91-85 at Xavier. They certainly don't have the weapons to keep up with Kentucky. The Wildcats have a 69-62 win over Michigan State to go along with a 91-49 romp over Eastern Kentucky. UK averages 15.7 seconds per possession which is the same as how long they are on defense on average. The other intriguing factor is how will they play considering McCarty is Kentucky royalty and is on the other sideline. Will they pull off the gas a little bit towards the end? I'll take a shot that Evansville is able to score a little and UK does a lot of the heavy lifting on our way to an over. 

Vanderbilt is 1-0 after their 83-65 win over SEMO last week. The Commodores were tied at halftime, but had a fantastic second half as they shot 49.2% from the court. They were led by Aaron Nesmith's 25 points and 21 off the bench from Saben Lee in 28 minutes. Jerry Stackhouse has this team playing a little quicker as they had an adjusted tempo of 71.6 possessions. Texas A&M Corpus Christi lost their first game 82-49 against Louisiana Tech. It was a really rough game for the Islanders who were led by Jashawn Talton-Thomas who is the younger brother of Rashawn Thomas who was a star there. They approached 70 possessions in the loss and that was at home.  I don't think they'll be able to set their slower pace on the road. Vandy is still working out some of the kinks so I think it'll be a little closer and Corpus Christi will be able to help out. Give me the over.

Fort Wayne has gone over in 22 of their last 33 as a favorite including 10 of their last 13 as a road favorite. The Mastodons have played two games already losing 86-71 at UNLV before beating Manchester 91-80. The common thread in both was a lack of defense by the Dons. This team lost Jon Konchar, but it could be argued that they have more balanced scoring. Jarred Godfrey leads Fort Wayne with 22 points per game and is one of four who are shooting 50% or better from the court. SEMO has played just one game this season losing 83-65 at Vanderbilt. Quatarrius Wilson came over from McNeese State and he had a double-double in the loss with 12 points and 13 rebounds. The Redhawks have gone over in 14 of their last 22 at home. I think this one should see plenty of points on Sunday.

Illinois State is coming off an emotional 79-72 home win over Belmont in which it was an underdog. The Redbirds shot almost 48% from the court and made half of their three point attempts. It could have been a bigger win if not for their struggles from the free throw line. Zach Copeland is the leading returning starter, but Taylor Bruninga has made an impact for them as well. He's a solid shooter who has size and offensive ability. On the other side you've got UALR who won at Missouri State 67-66 last time out. The Trojans shot really well in that one and played some solid defense on the Bears. Markquis Nowell and Nikola Maric are the two leading returning scorers. Both teams played a moderately paced first game. I think this one is going over the total. 

It's hard to figure out Clemson as they enter this matchup against Colgate on Sunday. The Tigers lost 67-60 to Virginia Tech in game one as they couldn't handle Landers Nolley inside. Clemson bounced back to beat a bad Presbyterian team 79-45 last time as they got some confidence back. Still, this is an unsettled roster that is trying to figure out it's identity. They've got Aamir Simms inside and a couple of decent guards, but the depth isn't there and neither is the consistency. You can't say that for Colgate who is a finished product in terms of roster continuity. They bring back their top 5 scorers from last year and are coming off an 80-75 win over NJIT in game one. Rapolas Ivanauskas had 24 and eight in the win and he's going to be a problem considering the 6'10" player can shoot threes and go inside. Will Rayman is a double-double guy for them. Last year, this team played some teams tough on the road. I think they are worth a look in this spot. 

I've been so far down on the Browns this season, but here I think we're getting them at a really good spot. This is just Cleveland's 4th home game of the season as they finished up a stretch of four of five on the road. Yes, the offense isn't working right now and the defense has struggled, but Buffalo's offense doesn't scare anyone. Baker Mayfield is due for a blowup game and the addition of Kareem Hunt could help augment what Nick Chubb can do. The Bills away from home have beaten the Jets, Giants and Titans and none of those offenses are all that good. Buffalo has scored 20 points or less four times already this season. Josh Allen could struggle finding open receivers with Cleveland's corners getting a little healthier. I just think the market is slightly overreacting here and I think Cleveland gets the win on Sunday.

Arizona has lost two straight since a three game win streak in early October. The Cardinals offense has scored 20 or more in five of their last seven games as Kyler Murray has been getting a little bit better. David Johnson is going to play so that will help. Zona's defense is brutal and Jameis Winston should be able to pick them apart. Three of their last four opponents have thrown for 300 yards or better. Plus, this is their fourth road game since October 6th so you have to wonder how they will play coming east. Tampa Bay is also coming off a rough road stretch with four of their last five away from home. The Bucs have scored 20 or more in every game but one this season. They've gone over in six straight games and I think that trend continues. Tampa's defense has been great against the run, but almost everyone has thrown on them. These two should put up some points on Sunday.

The Bears couldn't be any lower right now and yet I like them here. The Bears had an atrocious half against the Eagles and then nearly came back. Mitchell Trubisky is a brutal quarterback and the offense is just not doing very much because of it. The Bears defense has bounced back since their brief two game stretch of struggles. They've held the Chargers and Eagles to just 39 points. At home, they've given up 10 to the Packers, 6 to the Vikings and 17 to LA. The Lions are spiraling out of control having lost four of their last five contests. They don't run the ball very well and Matt Stafford is not 100% right now. Those two things make me think that Detroit could struggle to score. This defense has been gashed as of late allowing 42 to the Vikings, 26 to the Giants and 31 to the Raiders. The Bears swept the Lions last year. I think they get their mojo back in this one.

Bradley's new look nearly paid off in Philly, but they fell short 86-81 to St. Joe's as a slight favorite. The Braves have talked about playing with a little more pace then they have in the past. This is a deeper team with several studs back from last year's team. The result was St. Joe picking them apart, but Bradley scoring over 80 points which I don't think they did a ton last year. IUPUI lost their first game 80-47 to Butler. They shot worse and allowed the Bulldogs to shoot almost 60% from the court. The Jaguars return three starters but had to change their coach in the offseason as Jason Gardner was let go. Last year this game was an 85-73 contest at IUPUI and it had a total of 134.5. I think Bradley will find it easier to get some offense going in this one and we sail over the total.

Evansville will start their season on Saturday as they host Ball State who already has a game under their belt. The Purple Aces needed overtime in their lone exhibition to pick up a win 71-68. Walter McCarty lamented how disjointed they looked with a slower pace and poor shooting. McCarty wants to run and play faster. Last year the Purple Aces averaged around 70 possessions per game. Ball State played Evansville twice last year winning 82-72 at home, but losing 89-77 in the Ford Center. The Cardinals lone win came over Defiance of division three. KJ Walton, Tahjai Teague and Kyle Mallers led the way as the returnees from last year's squad. There will definitely be some sloppiness from the home team, but I think this one will be a higher scoring game on Saturday.

One of my easiest winners from early on was the over in the Valpo game as they knocked off Toledo 79-77. The Crusaders lost a ton of talent, but brought some intriguing players in and the offense started to come a little more. Ryan Fazekas had 23 points while Javon Freeman-Liberty got a late basket to get the win. Mileek McMillan was able to play 28 mins and was able to make his presence felt. They also allowed the Rockets to shoot nearly 50% from the court and that won't work against St. Louis who won their first game 89-67. The Billikens like to play bully ball and a physical brand of basketball. Hasahn French had 29 points in the victory over Florida Gulf Coast. SLU has the size advantage and the talent advantage, but I think Valpo can throw some offensive punches too. This is a really low total and I think it may be too low. Neither team particularly wants to run, but I think they will if given the chance. Give me the over here.

I think we are getting some good value here on Air Force because of their 89-79 loss to Idaho State at home. If you dip into their box-score, the Falcons still managed to shoot just under 52% from the court while allowing Terik Cool to put up 41 points. You know that they are going to have a rough couple of days of practice after their poor shooting effort from long range. This is a group that returned all of their starters so I expect them to be a lot more focused for game two against Texas State. The Bobcats beat Texas Lutheran 103-45 in their first game. Nijal Pearson looked good and is one of the main threats for the Bobcats. I like the home team here though. I think we get a real focused effort from Air Force. AFA is 16-8 against the spread at home the last three years.

Louisville has won three of their last four and has a pair of road victories already this season. Scott Satterfield has done great things with this team and a lot of them showed up last time out two weeks ago against UVA. In that game they featured a dynamic running attack and a defense that clamped down on the run and played well in the secondary. That's not the norm, but I really think they have the talent to make things interesting on Saturday. Miami has won three of their last four, but are a maddeningly inconsistent team to figure out right now. Miami's offense has shown a bit of a pulse lately with Jarren Williams under center. They don't run it very well which means the signal caller has to be more involved. Miami's defense has finally played like the unit we thought they were. Seven straight opponents have thrown for 250 yards or less. The Canes have covered just 10 of their last 28 as a favorite including one of five this season. I like the road team with the extra week to prepare as Miami has their final home game of the season.

These two teams are going in different directions right now. The home team was leading James Madison in the 4th quarter, but couldn't finish the deal and have now lost three straight. Villanova's problems start in the backfield where they are getting almost half the product from DeeWil Barlee that they got from Justin Covington who tore his ACL. Richmond's offense has been clicking with Joe Mancuso under center. In all but one game he's led them in passing and rushing yards averaging 263 through the air and 82 yards on the ground. During this losing streak, Villanova has allowed 28 to New Hampshire, 36 to Stony Brook and 38 to JMU. Those are some dynamic offenses much like UR. During this recent stretch, the Spiders have scored 30 on Stony Brook, 35 at Delaware and 27 on Yale. The defense has gotten better with a really strong set of linebackers. Villanova probably was the better team entering the season but I really think UR is right now so I'll take all these points.

** I like this play from +8.5 and higher if it should move **

Rhode Island's offense has a lot of potential through the air which is good because William and Mary specializes against the run themselves. The Rams have Vito Priore under center with Aaron Parker out wide. URI's defense has given up 32.4 points per game and 438.4 yards per contest. This team has had a tough road schedule losing 41-20 at Ohio, 27-24 at New Hampshire, 34-17 at Virginia Tech and 35-28 at Albany to go along with a 31-28 win at Brown. The Tribe continue to run the go-go offense to mixed results. They've had to play some quarterback roulette with Hollis Mathis and Kilton Anderson going in and out of the lineup from time to time. Last week they won at Elon 31-29 which halted a five game losing streak. The WM defense has had a stretch of five straight opponents scoring 29 points or more. I think this one should see plenty of points.

North Texas returns three starters and are led by guard Umoja Gibson and Roosevelt Smart. It's a pretty solid backcourt who can shoot although Smart last year struggled at times. Zachary Simmons is the third returning starter and he's the beef in the paint at 6'10. Deng Geu comes over from North Dakota State along with several other weapons. Thomas Bell scored 16 points in a 79-40 win over Oklahoma Christian. VCU's 1-0 with a 72-58 win over St. Francis on Tuesday night. Marcus Santos-Silva, De'Riante Jenkins and Marcus Evans are their big three scorers. The team is deep and presses the majority of the game which is scary, but this is so many points with a lower total. The Rams haven't been a great home favorite of 12.5 points or more covering just once in this situation over their last three years. Their offense has these stretches where they go cold hence why this total is lower. Give me the Mean Green in this one to make things close.

Coppin State is playing their second game of the season as they travel to Blacksburg to take on the Hokies. The Eagles lost 91-84 at Rider earlier this week and were able to flash an offense that's not too bad despite losing some talent from last year. CSU played very little defense which is a concern especially since they blew a 7 point halftime lead. They had three double digit scorers and weren't out-rebounded too poorly. Virginia Tech is coming off a big win in Clemson, but there's still a lot of question marks. Other then Landers Nolley, they don't have a ton of consistent scorers. The Hokies are an ACC team in name, but talent levels aren't that high there. We could see a little bit of a hangover after the conference win and also an unfinished product. They need to find a second scorer as Nolley put up 30 of their 67 in Clemson last time out. I think this is just too many points for a team that is still learning about themselves.

Illinois Chicago needed a three point play late in order to beat NAIA opponent Olivet Nazarene 75-72 last time out. This team returned the bulk of their scoring and minutes from last year, but it clearly didn't help in game one. Their star Tarkus Ferguson was suspended for the game with no word on if it'll be extended. Also, star guard Marcus Ottey is out with a foot injury according to one of their beat reporters. Without those two Godwin Boahen had to take over. I'm guessing Ferguson comes back, but against Memphis that's not going to be enough. The Tigers are going to steamroll bad teams at home this season. They beat South Carolina State 97-64 with James Wiseman leading the way with 28 points and 11 rebounds in 22 minutes. They started all five of their fab freshmen with Precious Achiuwa adding 14 points and eight rebounds. Their balance and depth is going to wear teams down. I think the Tigers roll here especially if Ferguson and/or Ottey are out once again.

Akron has a game under their belt with a win over Malone 81-64 already this season. In that game they had five double digit scorers led by Xeyrius Williams who came over from Dayton. He had 17 points and nine rebounds. Also chipping in were Tyler Cheese, Camron Reece and Cristian Jackson. This team had a rough year on the road last year, but there's not a lot to like about West Virginia right now. Last Friday the Mountaineers beat Duquesne 78-70, but after the game Bob Huggins was not thrilled with the offense or his trademark defense. This is a very young squad that lost a lot of talent from last year and will be relying on role players and a really good freshman Oscar Tshiebwe who had a double-double against the Dukes. I think the Zips are a live dog in this one.

Temple was 5-1 and then got blasted the last two games by SMU and UCF in games that showed their defense has problems with athletes and speed on the outside. They gave up 45 to the Mustangs on the road and 63 at home to the Knights. The defense is better then that, but they've had some odd performances on the road. The Owls allowed 38 at Buffalo, but a lot of that came after a bogus targeting penalty on Shaun Bradley. Temple's offense has been pretty consistent scoring 21 or more in all but one contest this season. They can run it a bit and can throw it with Anthony Russo and Todd Centeio. The WR corps is very strong. USF's defense can be exploited especially at home where they allowed 49 to Wisconsin and 48 to SMU. They struggle against the run with several teams rushing for 180 or more. USF's offense was supposed to be strong with Kerwin Bell coming to install his uptempo offense. They've put up 45, 3, 27 and 48 in their last four games as the run game has figured things out. The problems come with the passing attack led by freshman Jordan McCloud who has 10 touchdown passes and six interceptions. Jordan Cronkite is the guy who makes this thing go at running back. The Owls have gone over in nine of their last 15 on the road. I think this one sees plenty of points.

Drake has three starters back from a team that went 24-10 last year. The Bulldogs went 9-3 in non-conference play, averaging 78.1 points per game. Granted they are without Nick McGlynn and Brady Ellingson. They want to play with some pace to their offense. This team beat Upper Iowa in an exhibition game 95-88. Drake shot over 50% in that game and was without Tremell Murphy who will be suspended early on in the season. Kennesaw State lost at Creighton on Tuesday 81-55 as the Blue Jays shot over 50% from the court. In one respect, the Owls get a game under their belts so they should play a little bit better. On the other hand, it's a quick turnaround with some travel involved. This team is on their 5th head coach in 10 years. They've got two top scorers in Tyler Hooker and Danny Lewis. I think this one sees some points on Thursday.

Western Michigan will be an intriguing team in the MAC this season. They return 61.3% of their scoring from last year which is the second highest percentage in the MAC West. They also get Brandon Johnson and Jason Whitens back who were both sidelined due to injury last season. Bring those guys together with Michael Flowers who had 12 20 point performances last year and you've got the makings of a solid offense. They beat Kalamazoo College 76-56 in their lone exhibition contest. On the other side, it's McNeese State who returns just four players with two of those being starters. The other key contributor is AJ Lawson who sat out after transferring from North Texas. Last year the Cowboys went 2-14 on the road. In non-conference action they allowed 87, 80, 91, 67, 90, 80 and 68. Their offense should be just a bit more improved with Lawson running things. I think this one should go over the total.

The Roadrunners were one of my favorite teams to bet on in college basketball last year and it's because of Jhivvan Jackson and Keaton Wallace who are part of a really silky smooth backcourt. Wallace is a very good shooter while Jackson is the slasher. This year they've got some help in Knox Hellums who comes over from Pepperdine. The forward group isn't the best, but also watch out for Makani Whiteside who is an intriguing freshman. UTSA is 34-22-1 against the spread the last three seasons. Oklahoma will be without Kristian Doolittle who is one of the three starters back. He's out for the opener due to NCAA violations. That puts a little more on Jamal Bieniemy and Brady Manek as well as a host of young talented players. Oklahoma is only 20-20 against the spread the last three seasons as a favorite. You'll be seeing Meep Meep on my card quite a bit I think. 

The potential Summit League champs head to Manhattan Kansas to take on Kansas State on Tuesday. North Dakota State returns all five starters from last year's team as they bring a whole lot of shooting as evidenced by a 104-63 win against an NAIA team in an exhibition game. Vinnie Shahid and Tyson Ward are a really good backcourt and are part of a squad that was top 20 for the fewest turnovers and fouls last year. Kansas State is without Barry Brown, Kamau Stokes and Dean Wade who all graduated. That means more on Xavier Sneed and Makol Mawien who are the veterans along with a whole host of freshmen. The Wildcats will be without some depth pieces in James Love III and Nigel Shadd who are injured. Guard Shaun Williams is also suspended for this one. I just think it's a lot of points for a team that is still working the kinks out. KSU is 14-15 against the spread at home the last three seasons. 

The Hilltoppers return 75.2% of their scoring, 64.1% of their rebounding and all four of their leading scorers from last year. Charles Bassey is amazing with Taveion Hollingsworth, Jared Savage and Josh Anderson all double digit returners. They've also added Carson Williams from Northern Kentucky and Camron Justice from IUPUI as well as Kenny Cooper from Lipscomb. There's a lot of talent here on this roster although Cooper is still waiting to hear from the NCAA regarding his waiver. Tennessee Tech is going to be brutal in the OVC. John Pelphrey takes over as head coach and has to fix the worst offense in the conference. This team lost their non-conference road games by 15, 14, 50, 68, 11, 5 and 43. They have seven newcomers and three redshirt freshmen so growing pains are expected. Tech is 12-19 against the spread in their last 31 on the road. WKU is 44-26 against the spread the last three seasons overall. Give me the home team in a rout in this one. 

Bradley is going to play a lot faster than they did last year. They had 23 fast-break points and 43 points in fewer then 10 seconds in their exhibition win over Millikin 91-52. Last year they averaged 17.9 second possessions according to Ken Pomeroy. Bradley is led by Darrell Brown, Elijah Childs and Nate Kennell who were the top three scorers last year. Ja'Shon Henry is going to be a glue guy attempting to replace the departed guys along with LSU transfer Danya Kingsby. St. Joe's is a really fast team themselves so this one should see plenty of possessions and opportunities. Taylor Funk and Ryan Daly are the building blocks for a Hawks team that lost a lot of talent this offseason. In their exhibition game, they beat Arcadia 100-61. This team is going to struggle at times to score, but their lack of defense will help as well. Give me the over here. 

UMass Lowell led the America East conference in scoring last year putting up nearly 77 per contest. They were led by Christian Lutete who put up nearly 20 per game and got help from Obadiah Noel who was another double digit scorer. They need to fix the defense though because they allowed over 75 points per contest. UMass has seven freshmen which is more then the last two seasons combined. Matt McCall is going to have his Minutemen press, but after last week's exhibition, the coaching staff called it "awful" making that the focus of practice. Holloway and Luwane Pipkins are gone from this team which means Carl Pierre and Keon Clergeot have to do more. I just think the road team is the better squad right now and I can't imagine there's much of a homecourt here. 

UNF returns all five starters and are one of a few teams that have an all senior starting lineup. The Ospreys want to bomb away from long range and play a helter skelter type of game. Last year against it's better opponents, UNF lost 78-70 to Dayton, 87-72 to Penn State and 98-66 to these same Gators. Other contests included losses to FSU 95-81 and 95-49 to Auburn. The Gators have put up 90 or more in all but two of the matchups between these two schools. Florida has a lot of expectations with them being ranked sixth in the polls. In their lone exhibition they beat Lynn 89-71 with a bunch of guys putting up double digits. The starting lineup features former Hokie Kerry Blackshear as well as freshman Tre Mann to go with Andrew Nembhard and Noah Locke. It is a concern how well this team played defense at home in non-conference games last year, but that was a more veteran bunch. I think we see a boatload of points and go over the total. 

The Broncos have made a change at quarterback due to injury and it's Brandon Allen who was awful this preseason. The signal caller takes over an offense that is averaging just over 300 yards per game. It's the defense that I'm really backing here on Sunday. By not trading Chris Harris and Von Miller, you've shown a little confidence in what this team can do. This side of the ball has shut out Tennessee and held potent Indianapolis to 15 points on the road. It's hard to run on them and even harder to throw.

Cleveland has lost three straight and is playing their fourth road game over their last six weeks. Everyone is questioning Freddie Kitchens and rightfully so. He seems way over his head. They made a ton of mistakes in New England and lost 27-13. This team got all the hype this offseason and Baker Mayfield has been a turnover machine. Yes, they have the better talent in this one, but I think this is a drastic overreaction to a mediocre QB going out and a lesser one going in. It'll be tough sledding for Cleveland on the road. There's no guarantee they take care of business in this one.

The Lions hit the road for the first time in a few weeks to take on the Raiders. Detroit's secondary is ravaged with Quandre Diggs being traded, Tracy Walker out and Darius Slay questionable with a hamstring injury. The front line will be without Mike Daniels it looks like as well. Good thing the Lions offense has scored 27 or more in all but two contests. Matt Stafford is playing some of his best football right now and should be able to keep up in a shootout. The Raiders will be playing their first home game since September 15th so pardon them if they are a bit weary. Their offense has actually performed well with 24 points in three straight contests and that came after scoring 31 in Indianapolis. Josh Jacobs has been really good. Oakland's defense is a massive issue right now having allowed 28 points or more three times already. Detroit has gone over in four of their seven games this season. I think this one should see plenty of points.

The Bears have lost three straight and couldn't be any lower right now with Mitch Trubisky under center. He's the human turnover machine and the offense just hasn't done much scoring over 24 points just twice as a unit. The good thing is that this defense has been nasty at times. They don't allow teams to run on them often and their secondary is pretty stout too. Philly's D is not great, but they are getting healthy in the secondary and it showed against Buffalo in the elements last week. I think the Eagles want to ground and pound here and with that, there will be less possessions. Carson Wentz just doesn't have enough weapons right now even with DeSean Jackson back. Who knows how long he'll be able to play with the injury though. The Bears have gone under in 10 of their last 18 road games and 12 of their last 18 as an underdog. I think this one is a lower scoring special teams affair. 

Vandy is coming off a bye week after a 21-14 win over Missouri. The Commodores offense has been underwhelming all year outside of scoring 38 on LSU. They've put up 21 or less in three straight games and four overall. The quarterback play has been poor and it's not keeping opponents honest. Vandy's defense is nothing special, but they've done a solid job against the lesser teams they've faced. South Carolina could be one of those squads as their offense has scored 21 or less four times already. Ryan Hilinski has had the ups and downs of a freshman QB. Their defense needs to be better after giving up 41 to Tennessee last time out. That can't happen against the lackluster Volunteers. The under has hit in three of their last five. Vandy has gone under in four straight and five of their seven overall. Give me the under here. 

MTSU is getting a lot of respect after beating FIU 50-17 at home as an underdog. Still, the Blue Raiders other wins came at home against Tennessee State and Marshall. The team was able to run it last week in a torrential downpour and take the ball out of their qb's hands. Their defense was pretty solid, but that's not representative for the whole season. You can run on these guys which means Benny LeMay should go nuts. Charlotte saw their four game losing streak end after an awesome 39-38 comeback win over North Texas. They were able to use their balance to run and pass the ball. Charlotte's defense is brutal so that's a worry, but this team is 3-1 at home this season. I'm going to take a shot with the underdog in this one. I think they can get the points when they need to.

It's the big time rivalry game as Kansas hosts Kansas State. The Wildcats are coming off a 48-41 win at home against Oklahoma. Their offense clicked big time for the first time after three lackluster weeks. In an ideal world, they want to have some balance with the run and pass game. Still, focus could be a slight issue after the huge win last week. Since the bye, Kansas has scored 48 and 37 on Texas and Texas Tech. The offense is clicking as they play with a quicker pace and are able to move the ball. The Jayhawks defense is still hideous as all but three opponents have had no issues running the ball. Right now, you can't set Kansas totals high enough for me not to take the over. It's a perfect recipe for a shootout Saturday.