I am backing Nice to beat Toulouse today in this French Ligue 1 clash.

Neither team can point to great recent form, however, there is a glaring difference in their recent respective home and away form with Nice being in a much better position.

Nice have won their last four home games in the league on the bounce and over their last eight home games in the league they have won six and drawn two, in better words, they are very strong at home right now.

Toulouse has lost their last three away games on the bounce in the league and lost five of their last eight away games in the league.

It is clear that Nice at home is far better than Toulouse on the road.

In terms of current form over the last six games, Nice are also in a better position compared to Toulouse.

Based on the respective home and away form I am backing Nice to get the win today.

Take Nice outright

I am backing Arsenal to overcome the two-goal deficit from the first leg in this last 16 Europa League clash.

Everything that could go wrong went wrong for Arsenal in the first leg, they were leading 1-0 until Sokratis sending off and even then the loss was only 3-1 after an 88th-minute goal from Rennes.

We have seen the true Arsenal many times this season, especially at home and most recently against Man Utd and I fully expect that we will see that Arsenal today.

There is a huge gulf between these two teams, the first leg result is giving a false impression that these two teams are closer than what they really are.

I can make no case for Rennes, they are not good enough, they will lose this game and it is just a question of by how many in my opinion and the truth is that I would have still backed Arsenal if the handicap was as high as -2.5.

Take Arsenal -1.75

Slavia Praha is actually a decent team even though they are playing in a league (Czech Republic) vastly inferior to the league Sevilla (Spain) play in and that was proven by the 2-2 first-leg draw last week.

Slavia has the advantage because of the away goal rule in this Europa League clash and that means that Sevilla must go on the attack, a draw is no good to them unless it is 2-2 or higher and you can be certain that Slavia will be just as dangerous on the attack as what Sevilla will be.

The first game had four goals and it would not surprise me if this game had that many, possibly even more, both teams have shown vulnerability in defence and both have already shown they can score and this game has all the hallmarks of an open attacking game.

I would have prefered a lower overs of 2.5 goals as opposed to over 2.75 but it is still a very safe bet in my opinion.

Take over 2.75 goals.

Huge Champions League game this evening between two of the most illustrious clubs in world football, Bayern Munich and Liverpool.

The first leg finished 0-0 in Liverpool and while that is, of course, a positive result for Bayern, it is also a good result for Liverpool, they never conceded an away goal and they know that if they manage a goal today then Bayern will have to score twice because of the away goal rule.

To some extent Liverpool has caught Bayern at the wrong time, they have shot back to the top of the Bundesliga, they are sweeping all before them after enduring a poor start to the season and they are now hitting their stride at just the right time.

That said, Liverpool may have stuttered slightly but you have to take on board that their stutter is drawing against Bayern, a rejuvenated Man Utd and an away draw against their local rivals Everton and outside those three games they won three scoring 3, 5 and 4.

Point is this, both teams are in good form, both teams are scoring goals, both teams know exactly what must be done tonight to qualify and that means both teams will be very dangerous in front of the goal tonight.

I know the first game ended 0-0 but I simply cannot see that happening again, Bayern will go all out to score, Liverpool will attempt the same and I see an open game after some initial nervousness.

All things considered, I see goals and will confidently be backing over 2.5 goals.

Take over 2.5 goals

Today I  will be backing Norwich to continue their fine form and register another win that will take them back to the top of the Championship.

It is now fast approaching the end game in the Championship and the battle for automatic promotion to the Premier League is now basically a three horse race with just two spots available.

A win for Norwich tonight will put them four points above third-placed Sheffield United, not a huge gap but definitely significant with so few games remaining and that alone is all the motivation that Norwich needs.

Hull are still in with an outside chance of making a playoff place but it is now looking unlikely, not only will they have to put together a winning run but hope for a few teams above them to falter, but it is fair to say they still have something to play for.

That said, Hull are a limited side, especially away and their current form on the road is poor, they have lost four on the bounce scoring just once and conceding 13 in that sequence, compare that with Norwich who have won four and drawn once in their last five home games.

All things considered, I am taking Norwich to win and to win by at least two goals.

Take Norwich -1

I am fully expecting a huge reaction from Real Madrid following their humiliation in the Champions League midweek to Ajax.

It is clear that Real are not the same team they were last year but some perspective is required, the loss to Ajax was one of those games that just went wrong for them, they beat Ajax in the Netherlands in the first leg and so it is not as if they became a flop overnight and yes they did lose three games from four before that but two of those games were against Barcelona, they are still third in La Liga and while no longer title contenders, they are certainly better than the likes of Real Valladolid.

Valladolid for their part enter this game with just one win in their last 13 games, they are in a relegation dog fight and have the second worse current form in the league, whereas Real Madrid has the third best form over the last six games.

Real Madrid will show in this game that they are still a top team and I will be very surprised if we do not see a massive response from them and I do expect them to win this game by at least a couple of goals.

Take Real Madrid -1

This game is a huge contender for over 2.5 goals based on a combination of statistics and the circumstances of the game.

Fiorentina last four games have had a minimum of four goals in them and over their last nine games no less than seven have had at least three goals in them, this is a team that loves being involved in high scoring games. Additionally, they still retain hopes of making European qualification even if it is a slim hope.

Lazio are in a European qualification spot, albeit by the skin of their teeth and they simply cannot afford to drop points otherwise the pack behind them will swamp them and it has to be noted that four of their last six Serie A games have had at least three goals featured in them.

So, what we have here is two teams with vulnerable defences that play attacking football and that are both highly motivated and when all that comes together you get goals.

Take over 2,5 goals

Chelsea have hit a rich vein of form with four wins and a draw from their last five games in all competitions, their confidence has been restored and with Tottenham losing on Saturday they now have the added motivation of closing in on a top-four spot and depending on the result between Arsenal and Man Utd could even end up in the fourth spot by Sunday evening.

Wolves are in the seventh position, just one behind Chelsea but they are 13 points behind and basically have no chance of European football next season, they are guaranteed Premier League football for another campaign and while they will still be highly motivated, it will not be quite as sharp as Chelsea's.

Wolves are also quite poor on the road, yes they beat Tottenham away but apart from that they really are inconsistent but they are due some credit, their current form is nearly as good as Chelsea's but some context is required, they have played only one top ten side in their last six games and that was against ninth-placed West Ham, whereas Chelsea have played the likes of Tottenham, Man City and Arsenal over the same period.

The bottom line for me is that Chelsea is playing far better than Wolves at the moment, they are on a roll, confidence is huge and so is the motivation and of course, they have home advantage.

All things considered, I see Chelsea winning this by at least a couple of goals.

Atalanta just cannot stop scoring, only Juventus have scored more goals than them in Serie A and they are showing no signs of slowing down in front of the goal and in ten of their last 13 games in all competitions, there have been at least three goals scored.

Sampdoria may not be as prolific as Atalanta but over their last 13 Serie A games, nine have had at least three goals in them, almost an identical record to free-scoring Atalanta.

Now, you would have thought that Atalanta, who score for fun, would be challenging for the title, they are not, in fact, they are not even in a European qualification spot and the reason for that is simple, as good as their forward line is, their defence is almost the exact opposite, letting in goals like a sieve, allowing more goals than any other top ten side.

Sampdoria are not much better, they have the third worse record for letting in goals out of the top ten, in better words, we have two teams with poor defences but good forward lines and that tells you one thing when these two meet, goals are on the menu.

All things considered, I am going over 2.75 goals in this game.

I am giving Tottenham one more chance today and will be backing them to beat relegation-threatened Southampton.

Southampton was unlucky against Man Utd last week losing 3-2 and they have improved in recent weeks after a poor season, but even that improvement has been patchy and despite being at home today they are paying one of the best teams in the league that appear to have got their mojo back after a little bit of a stumble.

Tottenham was impressive beating Dortmund 1-0 midweek in the Champions League in Germany and that followed a hard-fought draw against Arsenal, which on the face of it was nothing special but that followed a two-game losing sequence which seriously dented the title aspirations and to then come back with a draw against Arsenal and a win away against Dortmund shows their character and that they are now past that momentary blip.

This will not be a walkover for Tottenham, they are playing against a team fighting for their lives who have not given up, as Southampton showed against Man Utd, but if Spurs play to their normal standards they will win this game.

Take Tottenham -0.5

Big game for both sides, a win for Leeds will see them go just two points behind Championship league leaders Norwich City and maintain their push for an automatic promotion spot to the Premier League.

Bristol City are fighting to stay in a playoff spot and will be desperate for the points after a run of poor results, they are currently in sixth spot and know they cannot keep on dropping points and with home advantage, they will be going all out for the win.

Bristol have been impressive at home recently, they did lose their last game in front of their fans 2-1 to Birmingham but previous to that they had won four home games on the bounce, Leeds are not as impressive on the road, they have just the one win in their last five Championship away games and lost last week to QPR.

So, what we have here is a mixed set of results for both sides depending on how you look at it, based on actual form Leeds are in a better position but based on home v away form Bristol has the better form.

Basically, hard to make a case for either side, however, because of the context of this game, what it means to both sides and the desperation of both sides to get the win then i am of the opinion that we will see goals in this game, I just do not see either team being defensive and expect an open game with a host of goalscoring opportunities.

All things considered, I am confident we will see at least three goals in this game.

Take Over 2.5 goals.

I am backing Crystal Palace to collect all three points against Brighton today.

This game is a case of two teams going in the opposite directions, yes Brighton won last weekend but that was at home against bottom side Huddersfield Town, a win they struggled to get and that was after collecting just a single win in their previous 12 Premier League matches, they really are not a team in form right now.

Palace, on the other hand, are hitting form at the right time, they have lost just once in their last six Premier League games and that was against a rejuvenated Man Utd, racking up three wins and two draws in that period, in fact, they have better recent form than both Tottenham and Liverpool.

Basically, we have a team in good form with home advantage against a team struggling to get points home or away.

All things considered, I am confident Crystal Palace will win this game.

Take Palace -0.5

I cannot see anything other than a win for Sheffield United today and a comfortable win at that.

Sheffield have the third best home record in the Championship, they are on fire right now, a win in this UK lunchtime game will momentarily take them into second in the table just four points behind leaders Norwich City, they are fighting tooth and nail for an automatic promotion spot to the Premier League and enter this game with the second best recent form in the Championship.

Rotherham are a poor side, they are third bottom and have a serious relegation fight on their hands, their form has improved in all fairness, with five draws and a win in their last six Championship games but whenever they play the top sides on the road they lose and lose by at least two goals and today they are up against a very good Championship side in excellent form.

Rotherham will be very defensive today but I just cannot see them holding out against a team at home determined to win and also determined to build up their goal difference which could end up being of critical importance come the end of the season.

All things considered, I simply cannot see anything other than a home win and for Sheffield to win by at least two goals.

Take Sheffield United -1.25

This game represents a fantastic opportunity for Norwich City to extend their lead at the top of the Championship to five points and cement their position in an automatic promotion spot to the Premier League.

Norwich is a hard team to beat at home, they have won three of their last four at home with the other game being a draw against third-placed Sheff Utd and enter this game with the third-best current form figures, in better words, they are in excellent form.

Swansea City has lost their last three away games in the Championship on the bounce, they are not the best travellers and their current overall form is very average losing three of their last six games and winning just twice.

What we have here is a team with huge motivation, home advantage and in excellent form against a team mired in mid-table obscurity, in poor form and poor traveller.

All things considered, I am backing Norwich to get the win.

Take Norwich -0.75

There is a significant difference in class between the Austrian Bundesliga and the Italian Serie A and I expect that to show today with a clear win for Napoli.

There may have been an argument that Napoli would not have taken this competition too seriously after being eliminated from the Champions League but a 5-1 aggregate win over Zurich put that to bed rather quickly and it must be noted that this is a Napoli side that beat Liverpool and twice held PSG in the Champions League this season.

Napoli are second in Serie A and generally speaking are a formidable home side with only Juventus beating them in their last 27 home games in all competitions and in that sequence they won 12 times by at least two goals and 21 wins overall.

Salzburg is not a bad side, they are dominating the Austrian Bundesliga and lead the standings by 11 points after just 20 games but they did lose 4-2 to Lazio last season in this competition in Italy and when they play the top teams they tend to lose, they have beaten the likes of Celtic and even Dortmund last season, so they are capable but losses to the likes of Marseille, Lazio and even Club Brugge give a more realistic gauge of their chances today.

All things considered, I am very confident Napoli will win and by at least two goals.

Take Napoli -1

Chelsea have put their horrendous period behind them, they did lose 4-0 to Bournemouth, 6-0 to Man City and 2-0 to Man Utd at home, but since those results they have shown significant improvement, they have had their confidence restored and there is now a strong belief at Stamford Bridge that they will go on and win this competition.

Chelsea has a great record in the Europa League, especially at home, they have won all four games at home this season in the competition and won three of those by two or more goals, in fact, this season they have won seven and drawn once in their eight Europa League games. They are taking this competition very seriously and will be looking to take a healthy lead to Ukraine for the second leg.

Kyiv is a decent team but definitely not what you would call an elite European team, they have not played any teams this year close to Chelsea's ability and have had the odd bad result against bad teams, today is their first real test against top-class opposition and reality will set in fairly quickly at Stamford Bridge.

All things considered, I fully expect the superior class of Chelsea to show today and expect them to run out clear winners by a minimum of two goals.

Take Chelsea -1.5

The first leg finished 2-1 to Roma and it is hard to call this game, it really could go either way, the away goal is huge for Porto but Roma hold the lead and in my personal opinion choosing a winner is best left alone but that does not mean that there is not a high-quality bet to be had.

I fully expect there to be goals in this game, there were three goals in the first leg and both teams have been involved in a lot of games with goals recently.

The last five games involving Porto have seen four of those games finish with at least three goals and the last ten games involving Roma have seen no less than nine of those games have three or more goals.

In better words, we have two teams that know how to score but also are vulnerable in defence and when you add in the context of this particular game, the fact that Porto has an away goal and home advantage but Roma have the lead then you can see clearly that goals are very likely from both teams.

Take over 2.5 goals

Tottenham go into this game with a 3-0 win from the first leg and the chances are they will qualify for the quarter-finals but I do not see them getting anything from this game today.

The good news for Tottenham is that if they score just the once then Dortmund would have to score five to qualify because of the away goal rule and there is a high possibility they will score and even if they did, I still see Dortmund winning the game.

Tottenham have not won since they beat Dortmund, they lost to Burnley and Chelsea and drew with Arsenal, they are not in great form right now and defence will be their priority today.

Dortmund has drawn, won and lost since they lost in London to Tottenham and so have a mixed record since the first leg defeat, however, the game they did win was at home and their overall home record is impressive, they are still top of the Bundesliga and will be very attack-minded today.

Basically, this will be attack against defence with Tottenham taking every opportunity to counter attack, I see Tottenham scoring and qualifying but Dortmund actually winning the game.

Take Dortmund to win outright 

I am backing Derby County to get back to winning ways against poor travellers Wigan Athletic.

Wigan have been woeful away from home, in their 16 away games this season in the Championship they have won just once, drawn three times and lost an incredible 12 times and that win was almost six months ago, in fact, their first away game of the season, so they are 15 games without an away win this season in the league.

Derby at home are not exactly formidable but in their 16 homes games they have lost just three times, they have drawn on five occasions and won eight times and in comparison to Wigan's away record that looks decent.

The problem with Derby right now is that they are in a bit of a slump, they have lost three on the bounce and are winless in four in the league, though the draw and two of their losses in that sequence were all away and in all fairness to them, they have won two of their last three home games.

Wigan are actually unbeaten in their last five Championship games but some context is required, four of those games were draws and four of those games were at home, now they are back on the road things will be very different.

The form is misleading and all things considered, I am backing Derby to win.

Take Derby outright

When I first looked at this game I thought that it would be fairly simple to work out who would win and my initial inclination was that Valencia held the advantage, however, after some deep analysis I simply cannot separate the teams.

Both teams are on the exact same points for the season, the last two games between the two were draws, though both were at Bilbao and Valencia do have the advantage when they are the home team recently but you have to take on board the current situation with Valencia when they are at home.

Valencia has drawn no less than ten of their last 15 home games in La Liga, that is an incredible statistic and Athletico Bilbao have drawn seven of their last 15 away games in the league, not as eye-opening as Valencia at home but still a high number of draws.

Then we have recent form, home or away, in La Liga, Valencia have drawn their last four on the bounce and again, Bilbao recent form is not as glaring but four draws from nine La Liga games is still close to 50% and one of those draws was against Barcelona.

The bottom line for me is that these two teams like draws, especially Valencia, there is almost nothing to separate them in the standings and with neither team wanting to lose this game today all leads me to have confidence that a draw is the most likely outcome.

Take the draw.

I backed Atalanta to be involved in a high scoring game last time out and it was a winner and I am doing exactly the again today with even more confidence.

Bottom line is that when Atalanta play there are goals, in their last 12 competitive games they have been involved in no less than nine that have seen at least three goals, that is a huge 75%.

With Fiorentina, it is six from their last eight games that have seen at least three goals, basically another team that has a habit of goals in their games.

That said, there is one stat against this outcome and that is the last five Serie A games between the pair have all finished below 2.75 goals, but their most recent game in the cup was a 3-3 draw and while stats are very useful for the most part, on occasions context is required and that certainly applies today.

Both teams still have a very good shot at Europe, there are just two points between them in the league and if either is to make a European qualification spot then they must win this game, a loss would be very damaging and that, for me, will determine how this game is played.

I expect both teams to go all out for the win, I expect both teams to score and a winner to emerge and therefore, over 2.75 goals is the bet for me.

Take over 2.75 

Huge Merseyside derby for both teams and not just for bragging rights.

Liverpool needs the win to go back top of the Premier League and Everton will want to do everything in their power to stop their local rivals from doing just that.

Everton are very unlikely to make Europe and will not be relegated but if there is one game they will raise themselves for it is this one, especially at home and they will be just as competitive as Liverpool, despite the difference in quality.

I suspect that Liverpool will probably win but they will not thrash Everton, if they do win it will be 1-0 or 2-0 in my opinion and it would not surprise me if this game ended in a low scoring draw either.

Statistics usually go out of the window when two local rivals face off against each other and one of the most reliable yardsticks under these circumstances are head to head records under similar situations.

The last four games between these two teams in the Premier League when Everton have been the home team has seen the following results, 0-0, 0-1, 1-1,0-0 and over the last ten meetings in all competitions regardless of who the home team is has seen 70% of the games below 2.5 goals.

So, based on the local rivalry, the fact that Everton is at home, on the statistics behind the head to head results I am going for under 2.5 goals.

Take under 2.5 goals.

Wolves were very disappointing losing 1-0 away to Huddersfield midweek even though it was a last minute winner and will be looking to get back to winning ways against a very poor Cardiff team.

While Wolves were disappointing Cardiff were even worse losing 3-0 to Everton which followed a 5-1 mauling to Watford and in both those games, Cardiff were the home side.

Cardiff have been appalling on the road this season, they may have managed two wins and one draw over their last five away games but they have lost an incredible nine times from 13 away games this season and based on their current form it is hard to see them improving that today.

Wolves are not bad at home, they have won six, drawn three and lost five, which on the face of it is not spectacular but you have to consider that three of the teams they lost to are either on the same points as them or above them in the standings and that they have beaten the likes of Chelsea and held the likes of Man City.

It is very difficult to make a case for Cardiff, you can but it is a stretch, they are facing relegation while Wolves are battling for a European spot, they are awful away while Wolves are tough at home and Cardiff's recent form is just dreadful.

Take Wolves -1

Huddersfield finally won a game beating Wolves last time out with a 90th-minute goal, however, that masks just how poor they are and I see them losing yet again today.

Prior to the win over Wolves, Huddersfield had lost 15 games and drawn just once in all competitions, that is how bad they have been and it must be noted that the win over Wolves was at home, today they are away.

Brighton is in a slump for sure, they are winless over their lasts seven Premier League games and have now been dragged down into the relegation dog fight but they have home advantage today and while their recent home form has been poor they are still a far better home side than what Huddersfield are away.

Brighton have lost just four times at home all season and three of those losses were against Tottenham, Chelsea and Liverpool, in better words when they play the poorer teams in the league and Huddersfield are the actual worse team, they do not lose and invariably win.

Also, the recent poor form of Brighton, especially at home needs context, as an example over their last six home games, they lost to Chelsea, Liverpool and Burnley, but they beat Everton and drew with Arsenal and Watford, point is that the losses were expected for the most part, Burnley aside and their other results were not bad at all.

The bottom line for me is that Brighton at home is simply the better team compared to Huddersfield away and I expect that to show today.

Take Brighton -0.5

Bayer Leverkusen lost last time out but that was away and against league leaders Borussia Dortmund and previous to that they had won four on the bounce and I am backing them to get back to winning ways today against Freiburg.

Freiburg have been playing better recently, they won last time out 5-1 against Augsburg and drew their three games previous to that, in better words, they are on a mini unbeaten run but the fact is that they only managed one win in that run and overall are not what one would describe as formidable opponents.

For starters, Freiburg has just two wins from their 11 away games this season, they are poor travellers, whereas Bayer has won five and lost just once in their last six home games.

The bottom line here is that Bayer has a far better home record than Freiburg have away and on current form, despite last weeks results, Bayer has the far better form.

I was a little hesitant that the spread was above one but on balance I am far more confident in Bayer winning by a couple of goals than I am in Freiburg getting anything from this game or keeping Bayer to just a one-goal margin.

Take Bayer Leverkusen -1.25

Tottenham are stumbling right now, they have lost two games on the bounce and in all honestly they deserved to lose both those games, they were lacklustre, they looked tired and they have seen their hopes of winning the Premier League title evaporate.

Arsenal are on a roll again, they were ten points behind Tottenham just a week ago, a win today and they will be just a point behind, however, I still have confidence in Tottenham and am backing them to win this North London derby today.

Some context is required, the two Tottenham losses were away games and while the Burnley loss is hard to swallow, losing to Chelsea is not the end of the world, they are a top team and capable of beating any team in the Premier League on their own ground, Tottenham are back at home, albeit home these days is Wembley and not White Hart Lane and there is no way they will continue to play as they have done in the last two games.

Arsenal last two games were at home against Southampton and Bournemouth, games they were fully expected to win, it would have been a big shock if they lost either game, point is that Arsenal have closed the gap on Tottenham while Tottenham was playing away games and against more difficult opposition than what Arsenal was facing while they were at home.

Now that Tottenham is at home and have had a kick up their backsides I fully expect them to respond today in a positive manner and beat their most bitter rivals.

Take Tottenham outright

I am backing Tottenham to get back to winning ways and collect all three points against Chelsea today in the Premier League.

This is a must win game for both sides and it is Tottenham that I believe is better prepared.

Tottenham did lose to Burnley at the weekend and yet they still have the best away record in the league and that result was out of character for a team that tends to dominate most teams, for some reason they were lacklustre and not the Tottenham team we have come to expect, I am convinced we will not see a repeat of that today.

Chelsea did well against Man City in the Carabao Cup final despite losing on penalties but the club is in disarray and they are always just one game away from a beating, they lost 6-0 to Man City and 4-0 to Bournemouth, both Premier League games and the performance on Sunday in the league cup final is not enough to convince me they have turned the corner.

Their manager has clearly lost his authority, his own keeper refused to be substituted and the other players showed zero inclination to back the manager up, there is no way that does not feed into the dressing room, a disunited team is always at a disadvantage and Chelsea are a disunited team.

Tottenham are a united team and they do bounce back from defeats and even though Chelsea are the home side I see Tottenham dominating and emerging the winners come the final whistle.

Take Tottenham outright.

This game screams goals and I am backing over 2.5 goals with maximum confidence.

Atalanta lost at the weekend 2-0 however they were facing a Torino team who had not conceded in their previous four Serie A games but that is not the case tonight, they are facing a Fiorentina team that have conceded in nine of their last twelve league games and that have been involved in games with over 2.5 goals in four of their last six games.

Atalanta love being involved in high scoring games, prior to their 2-0 loss to Torino they had been involved in seven games from eight games that had at least three goals in them.

Now to the context of this game, it is the first leg of the Coppa Italia with Fiorentina being the home side, Fiorentina will want to get as many goals under their belt as they can before they have to travel to Atalanta, they will not want to concede obviously but their defence is hardly watertight and Atalanta generally find the back of the net whoever they face.

If Fiorentina is to make it to the final they will have to outperform Atalanta up front, they know they cannot rely on their defence it is as simple as that and that will lead to an open game.

I expect both teams to score at least once and that one or both teams will find the back of the net at least twice.

Take over 2.5 goals

The league cup final and I cannot see anything other than a win for Man City.

To some extent we can forget the 6-0 thrashing that City handed out to Chelsea just a few weeks ago, for starters, City were at home and that game was over within 30 minutes, that was a one-off result and will not be repeated again today, however, it did show the huge gulf between these two teams and while I do not see City winning by six goals, I do see them winning by at least two.

Chelsea will be nervous facing City again but at the same time they will welcome it, they will want to put right that huge defeat but the facts are that they are an inferior team, they simply do not have the depth of talent that City have and certainly not the confidence and to some degree, the arrogance.

City is a brilliant team, they will go after Chelsea from word go and I just cannot see the Blues defence keeping the City forward line at bay for the whole 90 minutes.

Chelsea has lost too many games recently, put in too many poor performances for them to be backed with any confidence today, in contrast, City has shown time and time again that they are a match for any team in world football and everything points to a convincing City win today.

Take City -1

I am backing Atletico Madrid to win this game and by at least two clear goals.

I actually opposed Atletico against Juventus in the Champions League because on the evidence of watching them play I felt they had lost something, I could not quite put my finger on it but they were no longer the formidable force they once were, I was wrong, but that had to do with a change in attitude from Atletico and not because of their recent form.

If they play like they did against Juventus they will win this game with ease, they are playing a team fighting for their La Liga lives and there is a reason for that, Villarreal has been poor this season, they have improved for sure, but remain a limited team.

Villarreal is on a five-game unbeaten run in all competitions, their confidence is restored but it is fragile and with Atletico getting back to the form they have been lacking recently I am confident that this will be the game that Villarreal's unbeaten run comes to an end.

Atletico have home advantage, they have to win to keep the pressure on Barcelona at the top and that is exactly what I expect them to do today.

Take Atletico -1

The advantage is clearly with Arsenal today, they are fresh from a good midweek win in Europe and are at home but they have not been playing like world beaters and are a team with flaws, especially in defence where keeping a clean sheet seems to be a difficulty for them

Southampton is having a poor season, they lost their league game at home to Cardiff but prior to that they had gone on a three-game unbeaten run and started to show signs that they can drag themselves out of the relegation zone.

It should also be noted that Arsenal did lose away to Southampton earlier in the season and that was at a time when Arsenal was on a huge unbeaten run and Southampton were really struggling.

Arsenal should win this game but I simply cannot back them on the spread with confidence, they always seem to concede, they have conceded in 22 of their 26 league games this season and while they may win this game I do not see them doing by two clear goals and it would not be a surprise at all if the Gunners do not, in fact, win, Southampton have already proven they can match them this season.

All things considered, I am backing Southampton +1.25

Huge huge game for both teams and this game can one of two ways, it can be end to end football with goals flying in or it could be a bore draw with both teams too nervous to concede and blunted in attack, I am going with the former.

Man Utd has improved significantly and are now a danger to any defence, they are at home against one of their most bitter opponents and will enter this game in a much better frame of mind than they would have earlier in the season.

Liverpool is stuttering a little, they have started dropping points and seen their lead at the top evaporate, this is one game they will want to win and they will know that if they did manage to win it would boost their season massively.

A win for Man Utd maintains their fourth position in the league and a champions league spot, it would put them just six points behind third-placed Tottenham, whereas a win or draw for Liverpool sees them go back top.

So both teams have the motivation and both will want to avoid the loss and as soon as a goal goes in the whole dynamics of this game will change, I expect both sides to be attacked minded and go for all three points.

All things considered, I am backing over 2.5 goals.

The overs are set quite high on this game but f there are two teams that between them can rack the goals up it is Feyenoord and PSV.

Seven of the last eight PSV league games have had at least four goals in them and that includes playing teams in the top half.

Six of the last nine Feyenoord leagues game have had at least four goals in them and so there is clear evidence that when these two teams play there are goals.

There is a long history between these two teams, they are generally in the top three and games between them are full of passion and tend to be crucial games, today is no different, they occupy first and third in the table and while PSV are the leaders they have dropped points recently and seen their lead at the top narrow, Feyenoord are not having the most consistent season but a win today and they would retain slim hopes of catching up to the top two.

There is everything to play for in this game, both teams have shown vulnerabilities in defence and know how to score goals, a lot of them and based on their respective forms and the context of this game I am going for over 3.25 goals.

Take over 3.25 goals.

I am backing Newcastle United to get the better of Huddersfield Town in the Premier League today.

Newcastle has improved to some degree, whereas Huddersfield has not and with home advantage against the second worst team on the road in the Premier League Newcastle will be very confident of picking up all three points.

Newcastle has won their last two home games, including a hugely impressive 2-1 win over Man City.

Huddersfield, on the other hand, have lost five of their last six away games, with only a draw at Cardiff in that sequence and over their last 13 Premier League games they have lost 12 and drawn just once, whatever way you look at that, it is horrendous.

Newcastle is slowly rising up the table and Huddersfield are rooted to the bottom with almost no hope of avoiding relegation this season.

Newcastle have the form and home advantage and Huddersfield have almost nothing going for them,

Take Newcastle -0.5

Big game for both teams today in the Championship, Bristol City will be looking to get something from this game to maintain both their playoff position and automatic promotion hopes, Norwich is currently top of the standings and knows a win would be huge for their automatic promotion ambitions.

Norwich did stumble a little ten days ago with an uncharacteristic loss away at Preston but then bounced back with a huge 4-0 away win over Bolton, they are strong at home with seven wins and two draws in their last ten Championship home games.

Bristol City are on a seven game winning run in the Championship, in fact, they have not lost in their last 13 league games going right back to October, they are clearly in excellent form, they have won their last three away games on the bounce and enter this game with huge confidence.

So, we have two teams in excellent form with a load to play for but the reason I am going with Norwich is two-fold.

First, they have home advantage and that is significant and secondly they have the much better head to head record over their opponents, in fact, you have to go back ten years since Bristol got the better of Norwich, though there have been a good few draws.

All things considered, I am backing Norwich to squeeze out the win.

Take Norwich -0.5

Tottenham, despite some high profile injuries, continues to defy pundits and remain in both the Champions League and Premier League title race and are my pick to win this game.

They have the best away record in the league, better than both Man City and Liverpool, they will go within 2 points of City at the top of the standings with a win today and could even welcome back their best player Harry Kane.

Burnley have a half decent home record, however, they have lost at home this season to Man Utd, Chelsea and Liverpool, all top six teams, in better words, when they host a top six team they lose.

Burnley have lost the last two meetings between these two teams at Turf Moor, 3-0 and 2-0 and unless there is a dramatic shift in form it is hard to see how the result will be any different today.

Tottenham keep on winning, yes, they have been scraping wins but that is always the sign of a top quality team, Burnley will be competitive but there is a gulf in quality between these two teams and if Spurs play to form and there is no reason why they will not then it will be an away win.

Take Tottenham -0.75

Dynamo Kyiv did very well to get a draw away at Olympiakos in the first leg and I am backing them to go one better and get the win today.

Kyiv is on a winter break which makes their 2-2 draw in Greece all the more impressive, they have had mixed results recently, both in friendlies and competitive games but then so have Olympiakos and in terms of actual form, there is not much between them.

Because of the away goals, Kyiv has the advantage and Olympiakos will have to go for goal and that means that Kyiv will probably be looking to play counter-attack football today even though they are the home side.

Kyiv will not sit back completely, they will have gained confidence from the first leg but because of the conditions of this game they will want to stay organised and defensive as much as possible but I am of the opinion that because Olympiakos will be forced to attack that will give a lot of opportunities to Kyiv to grab a goal themselves.

The way I see this game unfolding makes backing the home side the most logical bet to have and one that I will be doing.

Take Kyiv -0.25

Interesting Europa League game, the first leg finished 0-0 which gives Genk a slight advantage, however, a single goal from Slavia Praha and Genk will have to score twice.

Both teams top their respective leagues, however, the Belgium League is a bit stronger than the Czech league and despite the maths of an away goal, the advantage is with Genk.

Both teams lost at the weekend, no doubt because they had one eye on this game and weirdly enough, both those defeats were against their nearest rivals in their leagues.

Even looking at the respective home and away form there is little to separate these two sides, Genk has won four of their last five home games in all competitions and Slavia have won three of their last four away games.

This game for me, all comes down to home advantage and the fact that I believe that the Belgium league is stronger than the Czech league and based on that I do see Genk squeezing out a narrow win.

Take Genk -0.5

Bayer Leverkusen drew 0-0 with Krasnador in the first leg of this Europa League tie and I am very confident that they will win this game now they are back at home and win it fairly comfortably.

Even though Bayer Leverkusen was away they absolutely dominated the first game, they had 65% of the possession, they had eight corners to Krasnadors one, they edged shots on goal 4-3 and 10-7 on shots overall.

I expect those sort of stats to be similar again today if not better, Bayer have home advantage and that is significant in Germany, their form has improved massively in recent weeks after a poor start to the season and they will be much fitter than their rivals, who are coming off a mid-season winter break.

Krasnador had their opportunity to take a lead into this game and failed and now that they are playing away, against a team from a far stronger league who outplayed them in the first game, I cannot see anything other than a loss for the Russian side.

I expect Leverkusen to take an early lead which will force the Russian side to attack and that will leave them vulnerable at the back and I see Bayer winning this game by 2-3 goals.

Take Bayer Leverkusen -1.25

Fenerbahce carries a 1-0 lead from the first leg against Zenit in this Europa League last 32 clash.

The Turkish side has the advantage of being in the middle of their season while Zenit has been on a two-month winter break, but there are good reasons to back the Russian side to get the win today.

For starters, Fenerbahce is having a poor season, they have turned their form around a little recently but they remain in 15th place (out of 18) in the Turkish league and could only muster a home draw against Konyaspor at the weekend and are on a four-game winless run away from home in all competitions.

Zenit came a little unstuck before the winter break but remain top of the Russian League and have put a good run together in friendly games, they will have come on a lot following the game against Fenerbahce and will be fitter and more match ready for it.

Fenerbahce just need a draw or even to lose by a single goal as long as they get an away goal and that will determine how they play this game, which will initially be defensive minded, Zenit will have no choice but to go for the win and that will be how they approach this match and a lot will depend on whether there is an early goal or not.

All things considered, I am of the opinion that Zenit has more going for them and will get the win today, whether they qualify is another matter.

Take Zenit -0.5

Two massive teams playing in the biggest club competition in the world, what more could one ask for.

I am backing Juventus not to lose this game tonight even though they are the away side and that is simply because they continue to play at a very high level, whereas Atletico has been poor recently, even when winning.

I watched Atletico away at Rayo Vallecano and I thought they were poor despite winning 1-0, I saw them against Real Madrid at home and they were woeful and deserved to lose and that was against a Real Madrid side that is as poor as it has been in years.

Juventus away in Serie A have been absolutely dominant winning ten, drawing one and losing none, they did lose a dead rubber in the Champions League away to Young Boys of Switzerland but that game was of no importance and they also lost badly away to Atalanta in the Italian Cup, but apart from that they have been imperious all season long.

Atletico on their day can be devastating, they remain a top quality side but not right now, they are not playing anywhere near their best and if there is one team you need to be at your best for it is Juventus, or you will lose.

I was tempted to back Juventus outright but have taken the safety-first approach of backing them on the spread so that in the event of a draw stakes are returned.

Take Juventus PK

Two teams at the opposite end of the table, Derby will enter the playoff zone with a win while Millwall is just two points above the relegation zone.

Derby have an excellent home record, they have eight wins, five draws and just two losses in their own stadia this season, they have won their last two home games on the bounce and overall have the fifth best home record in the Championship.

Millwall, by comparison, are woeful when travelling, they have just the single win all season on the road, they have lost an incredible ten times away and have the third worst away record in the league, they are not a good team when visiting an opponent.

Derby has the better recent form, they are formidable at home, they are playing a team with one of the worst away records in the league in poor recent form, it is hard to see anything other than a home win in this game.

Take Derby outright

This game is all about the respective home and away form as well as the league positions of both teams and it is Bordeaux that has the clear advantage.

Guingamp are rock bottom of Ligue 1, they have collected just eight points from a possible 36 on the road, they have five losses and just one win from their last six road games and have lost their last four games on the bounce including a 9-0 loss away to PSG.

Bordeaux have three wins and three draws from their last six home games including a 2-2 draw with league leaders PSG, they have collected 22 points from a possible 36 at home and enter this game with a win under their belt after three consecutive losses.

Bordeaux is clearly a far better home team than Guingamp are away, they have the better recent form and of course, the crowd on their side.

All things considered, this game is a safe home win for me.

Take Bordeaux outright

A home win is very important at this stage of the Europa League and that is what Sevilla will be going for, by the same criteria Lazio know that they will need to keep the scoreline down and if possible grab an away goal and that is what will determine the mentality of these teams today.

Sevilla has improved at home, they recently beat Barcelona 2-0, held Atletico Madrid to a draw and beaten Real Madrid 3-0, they have won seven of their last nine home league games and drawn the other two, they are a team in form on their home ground.

Lazio will be competitive, they are probably about the same level as Sevilla but are very hit and miss on the road in their league, they have won three, lost four and drawn two in their last nine away league games and come into this game in very inconsistent form when travelling.

Considering the home form of Sevilla and the quality of teams they have beaten recently I am backing them to end this game as the winners.

Take Sevilla -0.75

Liverpool are well placed to secure an advantage in this two-legged Champions League clash with Bayern Munich.

Liverpool have had a brilliant season so far, they did stumble with two recent draws but got back to winning ways at the weekend with a clinical 3-0 win over Bournemouth, they are dominant at home and in front of their home fans will, I am positive, take a winning lead to Munich for the second leg.

Bayern have had a very mixed season, they have finally got back to winning ways but they remain vulnerable, they are not sweeping sides away like they have done in previous seasons, they are still a force to be reckoned with but teams are no longer in awe of them and this has shown in results this season.

Liverpool will have too much pace and creativity for the German champions to handle this evening, they are a lot better than some of the teams Bayern have struggled against and unless the Bayern defence all of a sudden improves they will not be able to stop the Reds scoring today.

Bayern have conceded in every one of their last six games, they cannot buy a clean sheet right now and against the second highest scorers in the Premier League, on their turf, they are very unlikely today to get that elusive clean sheet.

Liverpool also have the best defence in the Premier League, they have conceded just 15 goals in 26 league games this season and just seven at home.

Liverpool have home advantage, they have a formidable front line, they have a world class defence and are playing a team that is not the force they once were that cannot keep a clean sheet right now.

Take Liverpool win

The Belgium league is fast approaching the end of their regular season before it breaks up into end of season championship rounds and both teams have a huge amount to play for, especially Anderlecht who run the risk of missing out altogether.

Antwerp could go second today and Anderlecht needs points desperately to stay in front of seventh-placed Gent and enhance their chances of making the Championship round.

In better words, both these teams have a lot to play for today and neither will be defence minded.

Considering their position in the standings you would expect Antwerp to be fairly strong at home but over their last six home games they have won just twice and lost three times, they are certainly not formidable at this time in front of their home fans.

Anderlecht has been woeful on the road, they have lost their last five away games on the bounce, they simply cannot buy a point away from home at the moment.

A case cannot be made for either team with any confidence, however, there is still a great bet to be had and that is over 2.5 goals.

Both teams have to go for goal, they cannot afford to drop points and that will determine how they approach this game and then there are their respective records to look at.

Seven of the last eight away games featuring Anderlecht have had at least three goals in the game and six of the last nine Antwerp home games have had at least three goals.

Based on the stats and the context of this game I am backing over 2.5 goals with huge confidence.

Take over 2.5

When you see one of the big names in Dutch football it is easy to pencil them in as a winner when they face a team significantly lower in the league, however, that is the quick way to the poor house if you do not analyse their seasons performances and that certainly applies to Feyenoord on the road.

Feyenoord has won just three times on the road from their ten away games this season, they may be third in the table and one of the big three but not when they are travelling, their away form this season has simply been poor and they enter this game with two away losses on the bounce.

Groningen are not world beaters but they have avoided defeat at home 50% of the time this season and after an awful start to the season have won four of their last five home games.

The point I am making is that this game could go either way and a case can be made for both teams and a draw is not out of the question but that does not mean that there is not a rock-solid bet to be had.

The last four Groningen home games have had at least three goals in them and the last four Feyenoord away games have had at least three goals in them with three of those games having at least four goals.

The current form of these two teams shows that goals are in abundance, Groningen are on a roll at home and Feyenoord are desperate to get back to winning ways on the road, all this points to a high scoring game for me.

I am backing over three goals in this game with the insurance that if only three goals are scored stakes are returned, however, I am very confident that we will see at least four goals.

Take over 3

These two teams are in great form right now, Atlanta is on an eight-game unbeaten run across all competitions and AC Milan is on a five-game unbeaten run.

There is just one point between the pair in Serie A with Atlanta fourth and Milan fifth and the race for a champions league spot is entering a very crucial stage, now is not the time to start dropping points.

Atlanta is the second highest scorers in Serie A but has the worst defensive record of the top ten teams, they are at least entertainment value. AC Milan was one of the lowest scorers of the top ten teams but they have found their goal-scoring feet in recent weeks and the signing of striker Krzysztof Piątek appears to have been a brilliant piece of business with the Polish international helping Milan to become far more clinical in front of the goal.

I was tempted to back the draw in this game but on balance I am far more confident that we will see at least three goals in this game, both teams will go for goal, Atalanta do that because it is in their nature and Milan are now far more confident going forward than they have been for quite a while.

Take over 2.5 goals.

Third-bottom welcomes third top in La Liga and for a variety of reasons I am backing Atletico Madrid to collect all three points and get their stuttering season back on track.

Atletico has lost their last two games, they are now seven points behind league leaders Barcelona and have dropped one point behind bitter rivals Real Madrid, they will be desperate to get back to winning ways and this game offers them a great opportunity to do just that.

Atletico has won seven and drawn two of the last nine meetings between these two teams and know that they must make that eight wins from ten if they are to have any hopes of maintaining their slim title hopes.

Rayo Vallecano has also lost their last two games and will approach this game with a different mindset to Atletico, they will be very defensive, they will be happy with a point even though they are the home side, they may well be in the relegation zone but there are at least seven teams above them that are in this relegation dog fight and a point against a top three team is priceless.

Atletico will have too much for Rayo today and I am confident that they will not just win this game but win it by at least two goals.

Take Atletico -1

The overs on this game has been set quite high and for good reason but even at over 3.5 goals I believe that it has been set too low.

Five of the last six games involving Hoffenheim across all competitions have had at least four goals and as their 3-3 draw last week with league leaders Dortmund showed there is no sign that the goals will all of a sudden dry up.

Hannover does not have the same sort of record but they are not far off with five of their last seven road games in the league having at least four goals in them.

Add in the fact that Hannover desperately needs points as they try to drag themselves out of the relegation zone and Hoffenheim still retain hopes of making Europe next season and you have two teams that will be determined to go for goal.

All things considered, I am very confident that we will see an abundance of goals in this game

Take over 3.5 goals.

This game could go either way, Man Utd are on a roll, they have home advantage and confidence is at its peak, PSG will be missing Neymar and possibly Cavani and have not been playing at their fluent best recently but still remain a team capable of beating anybody.

United are rightfully the favourites but to underestimate PSG would be foolish, they have lost just once all season in Ligue 1, they are ten points clear and have two games in hand, they have a sprinkling of genuine world-class players that can turn any game and United have shown that they are still vulnerable in defence on occasions.

PSG cannot afford to lose this game by more than a single goal and will do everything in their power to snatch an away goal, they will have moments in the game where they will be attacking the United goal, especially if they were to fall a goal down.

The way I initially see this game playing out is that United will probably dominate possession at the start, they will go for goal, they have little choice and I do see them scoring, that will then mean that PSG themselves will have to become more attack-minded, that will either work for them or allow United to use the counter-attack to attempt to extend their lead.

That for me means there will be goals, I do not see this game being a goalless draw and the second a goal does go in it will change the dynamics of the game.

I do fancy United to win but am not confident enough to back them and I am more confident that both teams will score in the 90 minutes and one of them will then grab a winner and that is why I am going for over 2.75 goals, my confidence in that outcome is strong and in my opinion, a safer bet than picking an actual winner.

Take over 2.75 goals.

Clash of two top teams in the Premier League today but the truth is that there is a big gulf between Chelsea and Man City and I am taking City to win this game and by at least two goals.

This season at home Man City have beaten Arsenal and Man Utd (two top six teams) by two goals and while they beat Liverpool by just the one goal it must be noted that Liverpool are the league leaders.

Chelsea has lost away to Arsenal and Tottenham (two top six teams) by two goals and enter this game on the back of two away losses that has seen them concede six and score none and that includes a humiliating 4-0 loss to Bournemouth.

The point is that when Chelsea play a top six team away they lose and when Man City play a top-six team at home they win and in both cases, it is usually a two-goal difference.

City is pushing for the league title and a win today will see them go top, albeit having played one game more than Liverpool, whereas Chelsea is struggling to push for a top-four spot, though any positive result today will see them go fourth.

City are simply the better team, they have home advantage and while Chelsea are an obvious threat their results this season have shown that when it matters they are found wanting.

Take Man City -1.25

Goals definitely look very likely in this game today between Utrecht and PSV Eindhoven and I am backing this game to have at least three goals in it and probably more.

Utrecht enter this match on a bad run, they have lost their last four Eredivisie games on the bounce, they have conceded 11 goals in that run and their confidence is at a low.

In comparison, PSV enters this game top of the table with 55 points from a possible 60 and another win today will see them go eight points clear of second place Ajax.

In their last nine league games PSV has been involved in there has been at least three goals scored, usually more with five of their last six games having at least four goals scored.

Utrecht have almost the exact same record in terms of games with goals in them, nine of their last ten games have had at least three goals and six of their last seven have had at least four goals.

This should be a win for PSV but they are the away team and it would not surprise me to see Utrecht score at least once and therefore I am going with over three goals in this game, the form of PSV and the stats indicate that will be the case today.

Take over 3 goals 

Frosinone are heading for relegation, they did very well to beat Bologna last week 4-0 but that was really a bit of a freak result and that was only their second win in their last 14 Serie A games, they are a poor team and today they are playing a team in great home form.

Sampdoria have won their last four Serie A home games on the bounce scoring 12 goals and conceding just the once, they have won all those games by a minimum of two goals and their only defeats, home or away, in their last ten league games have been against the top two sides in Serie A, Juventus and Napoli.

In terms of current form, Sampdoria has the fifth-best record in Italy with 10 points from a possible 18 over their last six games, compare that with Frosinone who has the 15th best record with just five points from a possible 18.

Whatever way I look at this I cannot see anything but a Sampdoria win and the only question for me was how many they would win by and taking on board their current home form I am confident they will beat the team second bottom by at least two goals.

Take Sampdoria -1

Tottenham is currently without two of their top players in Harry Kane and Dele Alli but that has not stopped them from winning even if they have had to leave it late to secure the victories.

Tottenham have won nine of their last 11 Premier League games and will get within two points of the second spot, well, until Manchester City face off against Chelsea later in the day.

Confidence at Spurs remains intact despite some frustration from the fans and another win today will keep them in the title race, albeit as outsiders.

Leicester City have been playing well but four losses in their last six games have dented their confidence, they did very well to draw away to Liverpool and were unfortunate not to get anything from the loss to Man Utd but they do keep coming up short, especially against the top teams.

Tottenham have home advantage if you can call it home advantage at Wembley Stadium and they will dominate this game as they do in almost every game they play, if they can finish better than they have been doing recently they could easily win this game by two or three goals.

I am confident that Tottenham will win and maintain their push for the title.

Take Tottenham -0.75 

I am backing Atletico Madrid to get the win with the added security of stakes being returned in the event of a draw.

Real Madrid are not the same team they have been in recent seasons, they are really struggling this season by their own high standards, their form has improved in recent weeks in the league and they now have four wins on the bounce under their belt but they remain vulnerable and remain eight points behind league leaders Barcelona and two behind today's opponents.

Atletico lost very surprisingly last week away at Betis but they have won eight of their last nine home games with one draw and that was against Barcelona, they have lost just once at home in their last 32 La Liga games and will be facing a Real Madrid side today that they know is not the strongest one they have faced in a long time.

Real may well be on a good run but even in those recent wins they have struggled to get some of those wins with goals coming in the last 10-15 minutes, they have also won nicely, there is no denying that but you have to look at the opposition.

In my opinion, there is far more chance of this game ending in either a win for Atletico Madrid or ending in a draw than there is of Real Madrid winning and my bet today reflects that.

Take Atletico Madrid PK

I cannot oppose Arsenal today, yes, their recent form on the road has been poor but today they are playing the worse team in the Premier League, a team that has just one win and 10 losses at home from their 13 home games this season and if they cannot collect all three points against Huddersfield today then they really can give up any hope of finishing top four.

Arsenal have shown their quality this season, they have beaten the likes of Tottenham and Chelsea, yes they were both at home but regardless, it shows that if they are in the mood, if their manager sends them out with the right team and tactics they are a top team, their confidence is still intact, they will know that their away record has to improve and this game gives them every opportunity to do that.

It is very difficult to make a case for Huddersfield, they have one draw and 12 losses from their last 13 Premier League games and if you are desperate you could point to the 1-0 loss away at Arsenal as proof that they if they can lose by just one goal away to the Gunners that there is every chance they can get a better result at home, I just do not see that, especially when you consider that Arsenal had much more possession in that game, more shots on goal and should really have won by two or three.

All things considered, I expect Arsenal to get the win today, they are a far better team and as long as they approach this game fully focussed they should win by at least two goals.

Take Arsenal -1

Borrusia Monchengladbach are second in the Bundesliga and deservedly so, they are formidable at home, they have won all nine games in front of their fans in the league scoring 25 goals and conceding just three and have won their last seven home games by more than two goals, whatever way you look at that, it is impressive.

Hertha Berlin are a decent mid-table side, they have a mixed away record and can look at a 2-2 away draw at league leaders Dortmund for comfort and in their last five away games have had two wins but they were against the bottom two and the truth is that they really are up against it today against a team that takes no prisoners on their own ground.

This is not a game that Monchengladbach can afford to drop points in if they are to retain any hope of catching Dortmund at the top, also, they may be comfortable in a champions league spot right now but a couple of bad results and that could change, they have the incentive to win this game and a perfect home record to protect.

Hertha have a fighting chance of course, but the odds are stacked against them, they have just one win in their last six league games and are out of form right now.

All things considered, I am backing Monchengladbach to win this game fairly comfortably.

Take Monchengladbach -1

Dortmund is the best team in Germany right now, they lead the Bundesliga by seven points, they are unbeaten at home winning nine and drawing just once and they have been beating all-comers rather comfortably.

Hoffenheim are actually quite good on the road in the Bundesliga, they have won four and drawn three of their last seven away games, quite impressive, but when they are away at the better teams, Bayern Munich as an example, they lose, they are a full 20 points behind Dortmund in the standings and will enter this game very defensively minded.

That is how this game will unfold, I fully expect Dortmund to dominate and the big question is, can Hoffenheim hold out for the entire 90 minutes against the highest scorers in Germany, I think not, Dortmund nearly always score at home, the last time they did not was 13 months ago and only once all season have they failed to score at least once.

Of course, if Dortmund score then Hoffenheim can always score as well, but the point I am making is that Dortmund will be on the attack all game, that Hoffenheim will not hold out and that there is far more chance of Dortmund scoring two or three goals than Hoffenheim scoring just once.

This game for me will be attack against defence and with that in mind, I am backing Dortmund to get the win.

Take Dortmund -0.75

This could actually be a fairly tight game but I am confident that Leipzig will emerge the winners today.

There are just five points between these two teams today but Leipzig have the huge advantage of being at home, they are very strong in front of their home fans and have lost just once this season in front of their fans and that was last time out against league leaders Dortmund 1-0, prior to that loss they have won seven and drawn just twice when in their home stadium.

Frankfurt is not the strongest away side, they enter this game with four away wins this season but generally those wins have been against poor teams, they struggle against top opposition on the road and if you go back over a couple of seasons their away record is awful, they have just two wins in their last eight Bundesliga games and right now, they are not in the best form, in fact, over their last six games they have collected just six points from a possible 18, whereas Leipzig has collected 12 points over the same period and those six points lost were against Bayern Munich and Dortmund.

All things considered, I believe that Leipzig will have too much for Frankfurt today and will win.

Take Leipzig -0.5

Manchester United have improved greatly under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, they remain unbeaten since he took over, they have won every Premier League game on the road under him conceding just once and scoring nine times in the four away games since the former United legend took over from Jose Mourinho.

Fulham are a much better home team than they are on the road, 15 of their 17 points this season have come in front of their home fans and so it would be folly to dismiss them out of hand and it will be no walkover for United.

But we do need a bit of a reality check here, Fulham are poor, they are second bottom for a reason and they are playing a team that beat them 4-1 earlier in the season and that was under Mourinho who was hardly getting the best out of the players.

I do expect Fulham to be competitive today, they are at home and they have already shown that they will give most teams a run for their money when they are at home, however, when they play a top-six side, home or away, they get beaten, they have lost against Arsenal 5-1, Tottenham 2-1 at home and lost convincingly away from home against the top six, if they are to avoid relegation it will be because of results against lesser teams and not the top teams.

All things considered, I am backing United today, they will go top four with a win over Fulham (that can change later in the day) and as long as they play as they have been doing and there is no reason to think they will not then they will win and probably by a couple of goals.

Take United -0.75

I really like the look of Getafe for this game, mainly based on their performances at home in comparison to the performances of Celta Vigo on the road.

Getafe were fairly poor earlier in the season in front of their own fans but recently they have improved significantly, they have won four of their last six home games in La Liga with the two losses being against Valencia and Barcelona, they are fifth in the table and will need to win this game to retain a hope of finishing top four and qualifying for next seasons Champions League.

Celta Vigo have won just twice on the road this season, against Levante and second bottom Villarreal, they have lost three on the bounce on their travels and basically, they are a poor team when it comes to playing away from home, they are only one point above the relegation places and while they did win their last game, at home to Sevilla, they had lost their previous five games in the league, this is not a high-quality team.

Getafe is in much better form overall, they have collected 10 points from a possible 18 over their last six games which compare very favourably against Celta who have collected just three points over the same period.

All things considered, I am taking Getafe to win this game outright.

Take Getafe to win

Interesting game, Sheffield United have the better recent form and will go top of the Championship with a win today, they clearly have the incentive to go for the win today.

Aston Villa has home advantage, they have lost just twice in their 15 Championship home games this season and just once in their last 10 at home and that was against Leeds United who has been in the top two for most of the season.

Another factor is that while Sheff Utd will go top with a win, Villa will go within one point of a playoff spot with a win and so they are just as incentivised as what Sheffield is.

In better words. both teams have a huge motivation, both teams are in good form and both teams know what a win will mean, that for me indicates that an attacking game is on the cards.

I have also taken on board the fact that the last seven league games played by Villa have seen at least three goals in them and over that same period four of Sheffield United's last seven games have had at least three goals.

I can make a case for either team to get the win and of course, a draw is a good possibility but if I am honest it would be guesswork for me to pick a winner and I do not guess when it comes to making winning bets.

All things considered, I see this game being an attacking entertaining affair and that the most likely outcome will be over 2.5 goals.

Take Over 2.5 goals.

On form AZ should win this game, they have the best recent form in the league over the last six games, however, they are the away team and even though they are playing the team rock bottom of the standings it is not as clear cut as it first appears.

For starters, NAC Breda has improved recently, especially at home, they have lost just once in their last six home games and that was against Ajax, who are second in the standings and while their away form is poor, they are a different team at home, well, recently they have been.

Of course, if both sides play to their ability then AZ should win but it would not take too much for AZ to play below their normal standards away from home and it would not be unusual for NAC Beda to raise their game in front of their home fans.

I am not making a case necessarily for Breda to get the win, what I am saying is that based on the odds there is very little value in backing AZ for an away win and on the spreads it is just too risky.

What carries a lot less risk is over 2.75 goals.

Five of the last six Breda home games have had at least three goals in them and eight of AZ's ten away games have had at least three goals in them.

Basically, all the stats point to goals in this game and because of the set up of this game, AZ in brilliant current form and Breda improving and desperate to drag themselves off bottom spot I do see this being an open game with goals involved.

Take over 2.75 goals.

So here we are, it is Superbowl time and I am backing the Patriots to get the better of the Rams tonight and win this game and cover the spread.

I was certain that the Patriots would lose to the Chiefs but they once again showed that they have that bit extra when it really matters and in hindsight, the signs were there that they would overcome the Chiefs, I just did not see it, but I do this time around.

The Patriots are one of those teams, even when supposedly in decline that delivers in the big games, their big players step up and show their class, their defence makes the stops when required and their offense puts the points on the board at just the right time and of course, there is Tom Brady, what a leader, what a player and this game is all set up for him to produce once again.

Of course, the Rams are here on merit and they can be explosive but if there is one area that worries me it is their defence and if there is a team that knows how to exploit a teams weakness it is the Patriots.

For me, I am of the opinion that the Patriots defence will do a better job of containing the Rams offense than what the Rams defence will against the Patriots offense and that will be the difference tonight.

Take the Patriots -2.5

There is not too much between these two teams but having watched both these teams on a regular basis this season I am going with Roma to sneak the win today.

Roma is a very strong home side, they have won four of their last five home games, drawing the other against third-placed Inter Milan and have won six, drawn three and lost just once at home all season.

Milan have won just three times from their ten away games in the league, although five of those were draws, they do struggle to get wins on the road that is clear but they are also hard to beat but against a team like Roma they will have to be absolutely focussed, if they are not then they will lose.

The way I have looked at this game is that Roma has home advantage, they have far better form at home than Milan away, they have better recent form, in fact, only Juventus have better recent form and I just believe they will have too much for Milan to handle for the entire 90 minutes.

Take Roma -0.25

Inter Milan are some way below Napoli and Juventus in Serie A but they are showing they are the best of the rest, they did lose last time away at Torino but that was their first league defeat in two months (against league leaders Juventus) and while they do draw too many games, they are fairly consistent and won seven in a row at home in the league before drawing their last home game against Sassuolo.

Bologna lost last time out at home to lowly Frosinone 4-0, a terrible result, they have won just twice all season long and are now on a 14 game run without a win in the league, on the road they have not won once and have five draws and six losses to their name, simply put, they are rubbish.

If Inter are in the mood they will win this game easily and I am confident they will be in the mood, the loss to Torino will have hurt them, they will be looking to bounce back and cement third spot in the league, they will be determined to maintain their push for Champions League football next season and will not allow a team like Bologna to derail that.

I just cannot make any case for Bologna and am backing Inter on the spreads with massive confidence.

Take Inter -1.25

Manchester City suffered a rare loss away to Newcastle United last Tuesday, they had won eight on the bounce previous to that including 9-0, 7-0, 3-0, 3-0 and 5-0 wins, when they are in the mood they simply brush sides away, however, it should be noted that the 9-0 and 7-0 wins were against lower league oppositions, but the two 3-0 wins and the 5-0 wins were not, they were against Premier League opposition.

Arsenal are a different side to the one that lost 2-0 on the opening day of the season against City, they remain a team in transition but they do lack consistency, they beat Tottenham and Chelsea, albeit both those games were at Arsenal but then go and lose to the likes of West Ham and Southampton and the last time they played a top six side away they got stuffed 5-1 by Liverpool.

But, Arsenal do have some seriously good players and despite their consistency and the fact that their away record against the top teams is poor they are improving and this game will not necessarily be a walkover for Man City.

I do expect Man City to win, I expect them to dominate the game but I do expect Arsenal to be dangerous and to have some chances in the game.

This game could easily see Man City win by 3 or 4 goals or it could be a close game with end to end football, you just never know with these two but what I am certain of is that we will see goals, both teams have formidable front lines and vulnerable defences, though Arsenal are far more vulnerable than City.

I am going with over 3.5 goals as opposed to backing City on the spreads simply because I have far more confidence in goals than a comfortable City win.

Take over 3.5 goals.

Manchester United's impressive run of eight wins in a row came to an end last Tuesday when they drew 2-2 with Burnley, that was a disappointing result and they know that, however, it does show that they remain a work in progress for interim manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer.

Leicester City themselves had an excellent away draw with league leaders Liverpool the following night and their confidence will have been significantly boosted, however, I am of the opinion that they will not get anything from this game, even with home advantage.

United may have been disappointing against Burnley but they showed previously to that, that they are a very different team than earlier in the season and I do expect us to see more of that form than last Tuesday's.

Same applies to Leicester, but in reverse, they did brilliantly against Liverpool but previously to that they had three losses on the bounce including a shocking loss to Newport in the FA Cup and for me, there is more chance us seeing the very average Leicester as opposed to the vastly improved Leicester we saw against Liverpool.

All things considered, I am backing Man Utd to win outright.

Take Man Utd to win

Juventus are the best team in Italy by a country mile and if that is not bad enough for an opponent the last thing you want when facing Juve is to play them away and when they have suffered a rare defeat in a previous game.

Juve lost in the Italian Cup away to Atalanta midweek and it was no normal loss, they got stuffed 3-0 and that almost never happens to them, prior to that game Juventus had won five on the bounce and their record this season in Serie A is 19 wins and just two draws from their 21 games, that really is dominant.

At home, Juventus have won 10 and drawn one of their 11 home games in the league, so you can see the task ahead for Parma today.

Parma are not too bad away, they have won five and lost five away this season but they have fairly poor form right now with five losses, one draw and two wins in their last eight league games but for a promoted team they are not doing too bad considering.

That said, Parma are out of their depth today and they are facing a wounded but determined and angry Juventus who will want to make it clear to the rest of the league that the shock loss to Atalanta in the Cup was a one-off and will not be repeated.

Expect a dominant win today by Juventus.

Take Juventus -1.75

I fully expect a significant response from Chelsea today after losing their last match 4-0 away to Bournemouth.

That result was a bit freaky, though Bournemouth also beat Chelsea 3-0 last season, they seem to be a bit of a bogey team for the Blues, but that aside, that was not the Chelsea we are used to and that defeat and the manner of it will have given them the exact sort of kick up the backside that they needed.

Back in front of their home fans, where they have lost just once in their last 15 games in the Premier League, I fully expect them to win and win comfortably.

Only a miracle will prevent Huddersfield being relegated, they are a very poor team at this level, they have just one win away all season in the league, they are rock bottom in the standings with just 11 points, a massive 36 points behind Chelsea.

Because I expect a positive reaction from Chelsea and the state of Huddersfield I am very confident that Chelsea will win this game by at least two goals,

Take Chelsea -1.5

I am backing Millwall to win this game and cover the spread.

Millwall beat Everton 3-2 in the FA Cup last time out, a very impressive result against a Premier League team, that win will have boosted their morale massively, they are fairly average at home and did lose last time out against Balckburn in front of their own fans, but they do have a record of six wins, four draws and four losses from their 14 home games and that shows, considering their position in the table, that they are no walkovers at home and against the right opposition they have the advantage.

That right opposition is exactly what Rotherham are, they are fourth bottom and face a relegation struggle, they have not won once on the road this season in the Championship, they have managed just four draws and a massive ten losses from their 14 away games, as travelling teams go they are poor.

Considering that Millwall had a huge win against far a far superior team last week and will enter this game in high confidence playing a team that simply is awful away then it has to be a win for Millwall.

Take Millwall -0.75

These two teams are becoming draw specialists, they have the highest number of draws in the Championship with Birmingham drawing 13 of their 29 league games and Forest having drawn 12 of their 29 league games, but it does not stop there.

Birmingham has drawn seven games at home, that is 50% of all their home games in the league this season, Forest has drawn eight of their 14 away games and any way you look at that, drawing is becoming a huge habit for both sides.

Only two points separate these two in the league and so in terms of their respective seasons, they are almost equal to each other.

And of course, when these two met at Forest earlier in the season it ended in a 2-2 draw.

And finally, on current form over their last six games respectively, they are 17th and 18th.

There is literally nothing to separate these two teams and with their habit of drawing I am reading all the signs and going for a draw.

Take the Draw

I am going to give Tottenham one more chance to show that they can cope with the loss of some of their main stars and win this game against Watford today.

The loss in the FA Cup was disappointing, it was not expected that the manager would in effect put out his B team and leave some of the remaining best players out, it drew much ire from their fans and pundits alike who were not happy with that decision and it showed on the pitch the futility of that decision.

It will be a very different Tottenham team today, they do have home advantage, albeit with the most fans as opposed to actually being in their own stadium and will be very motivated to win for a whole variety of reasons, not least last nights result involving Man City.

Watford will be competitive and have beaten Tottenham at Wembley previously but as long as Tottenham play how they have been doing for most of the season they will win and win comfortably.

Take Tottenham -0.75

Both these teams have found their goal-scoring feet in recent games, Palace has scored at least twice in their last three games, whereas Southampton has scored at least twice in their last four games.

Palace put two past Tottenham at the weekend in a huge win for them and also put three past Liverpool, that is two of the biggest teams in English football, their confidence will have been massively lifted following that win over Tottenham on Sunday and I see them entering this game in a very positive mood and not afraid to go for goal.

Southampton has collected seven points from their last three games in the league, they are slowly turning their form around and just like Palace, they will enter this game in a very positive frame of mind.

Both these teams need the win, they are on the same points, they are three points above the relegation zone and while this game is not yet a six-pointer, it is close and that will determine how they approach this game today.

I expect an open attacking game and am confident both teams will score and that at least one of them will score twice.

Take over 2.5 goals.

This Man Utd team is very different to the United team under Jose Mourinho, since Ole Gunnar Solskjaer took over they have won eight games in a row including hugely impressive away wins over both Tottenham and Arsenal, they put three goals past Arsenal, four past Fulham and Bournemouth and three past Huddersfield and I expect the same sort of scoreline against a poor Burnley side today.

United are playing much more freely, have more creativity and are more attack-minded than earlier in the season, they are full of confidence and believe they can beat anybody now, a far cry from under Mourinho, I expect them to come out all guns blazing and to beat Burnley comfortably.

Burnley have seen a little bit of improvement in recent weeks but away n the league they have won just twice all season and have been beaten heavily a few times, though of course, on occasions, they have defended well against the top teams and lost by just a single goal, but overall, when up against the better teams, they lose and lose easily.

All things considered, I see United continuing their rich vein of form and fully expect them to take care of Burnley today and to win by at least a couple of goals and to cover the spread.

Take Man Utd -1.5

West Ham United embarrassed themselves against Wimbledon in the FA Cup at the weekend and you can expect a vastly improved performance from them today, that result is certainly not a true reflection of their recent league performances and while you can't ignore it totally it really serves no purpose to use that game as a barometer for this game.

West Ham has lost their last two away games in the League, however, prior to that they won three on the bounce on the road and they did beat Arsenal 1-0 last time they were at home, in comparison to how they started the season they have improved significantly.

Wolves themselves had a poor away game in the FA Cup draw at Shrewsbury but even so, that was a better cup result than what West Ham produced and they will not be as shellshocked and determined to put things right as what West Ham will be.

Wolves did beat Leicester City 4-3 in their last league game, before that they lost two on the bounce and over their last eight home games they have lost five times, they are slightly regressing but overall, they are having a decent season.

I just feel that West Ham is playing better overall in the league right now, they have improved far more than Wolves over the last couple of months and they will be on the rebound today looking to make amends for the weekend humiliation.

I am taking West Ham on the spread with a 0.25 ball start simply because i feel there is more chance of a draw or West Ham than a Wolves win.

Take West Ham +0.25

Rayo Vallecano has gone on a very good run recently, they have won three times and drawn once in their last four La Liga games and will come into this match full of confidence but I am of the opinion that their recent good fortune will come to an end today.

For starters, Vallecano remain third bottom, their haul of 10 points over the last four games is exactly half the total points for the season and the best team they beat, in terms of league position, in those four games was a home win over 12th placed Levante, today's opponents represent a far tougher challenge.

Alaves took a right drubbing last time out losing 4-0 away to Getafe, which enabled Getafe to go within one point of Alaves in the standings, however, that to me was a one-off, it was their biggest defeat of the season and came after a four-game unbeaten run.

That said, the early season form of Alaves has dissipated somewhat, they are losing more often, often to the better teams but not always and they will struggle to maintain a challenge for a Champions League spot.

But, Alaves are still a very good home side, they are unbeaten this season in front of their home fans in La Liga with six wins and four draws and will be determined to bounce back from last weeks bad defeat and get within one point of Sevilla in fourth spot.

Vallecano may be on a good run but their away form overall is appalling, they have won just twice and drawn once from nine away games and have managed just the five goals on the road this season.

All things considered, I am backing Alaves to get back to winning ways today and to maintain their unbeaten home record against a team that is improving but still poor in comparison.

Take Alaves outright

By their standards, Real Madrid are struggling this season but they are still 12 points and nine positions above Espanyol and have won four of their last five games in all competitions and that single loss was a second leg game against Leganes that they led 3-0 from the first leg and basically put out their B side.

That said, three of those games in that sequence were cup games and you have to look a little deeper to see how Madrid really are doing.

Over their last ten league games, they have won seven and on the road, they have won three and drawn one of their last five and that draw was against Valencia, a team more capable than Espanyol.

So, not an altogether rosy picture but not a disastrous one either and certainly a better recent record than earlier in the season when they lost all three games in October and went five games without a win collecting just a draw, but that period is now behind them and slowly but surely they are getting more consistent and more clinical.

Espanyol are going through their rough patch right now, they have lost eight of their last nine league games, they have won just two of their last five homes games, however, those two wins were against teams lower than them in the league as of today, which in total contrast to Real Madrid is a lot worse than they were doing earlier in the season when they won their first five home games.

Basically, we have two teams that have reversed their earlier form and are now going in different directions, we have Espanyol struggling to get wins and Real Madrid are starting to get wins and add to that the fact that Real Madrid are simply the better team I am going with Real Madrid to get the away win today.

Take Real Madrid -0.75

A lot has been made about the absence of three of Tottenham's top scorers, Harry Kane, Son Heung-min and Dele Alli and of course that does make a difference but they are such a talented side with good depth in their squad that they are more than capable of coping.

They beat Fulham 2-1 away from home in the Premier League without Kane and Son and even though they lost 2-1 to Chelsea in the League Cup, they still put in a good performance, especially in the second half and were unfortunate to lose the 2 legged games on penalties and Chelsea are a top team.

Point is that while the loss of those players is an issue Tottenham have shown that they are still a formidable team and with Llorente scoring against Chelsea his confidence will have been boosted and if he plays today, as he is expected to do, I am positive that we will see a forward that Tottenham can rely on, plus they have the likes of Ericksen, Moura and Lamela all more than capable of finding the back of the net, this is not a team that finds scoring a problem, even without their first choice frontline.

Another factor is the away record of Tottenham, they have the best away record in the Premier League, better than even Man City and Liverpool, they held Barcelona in the Champions League away from home this season and even though this is a FA Cup game I do not see that making any difference from how they approach this game.

Palace, on their day, can spring a few surprises, they ran Liverpool very close last week only going down 4-3 and they were the away side, they beat Man City 3-2, a tremendous result and again they were away but overall, they have been poor this season, they are a huge 29 points behind Tottenham in the league, they have lost their last two games and in 12 home games this season they have won just three times and one of those wins was in the FA Cup against Grimsby 1-0, who are three divisions below them, hardly inspiring.

All things considered, it has to be Tottenham for the win, my only concerns are the loss of those three players mentioned earlier and that this is a cup game which is why I am going on the spread as opposed to an outright win.

Take Tottenham -0.25

Sometimes the stats jump out at you and it becomes almost impossible to ignore and while it is true that past statistics cannot predict the future they can definitely give you a very strong indication of a likely outcome and that certainly applies in this game when it comes to over 2.75 goals.

The last 11 Utrecht games in the Dutch league have had no less than 10 games with over 2.5 goals and their last eight games have all been over 2.75 goals.

Utrecht have had nine home games this season and seven of them have gone over 2.75 goals and they have scored in every single home game this season, whatever way you look at it Utrecht is certainly an entertaining team with goals in a consistent supply.

Willem does not have the same sort of record in terms of games with over 2.75 as what Utrecht have, they have played 18 times this season and 10 of those games have been over 2.75 which is still 56% of games but certainly lower than the 67% games featuring Utrecht this season.

But what does wing it for me where Willem is concerned is that in 10 of their 11 away games this season they have scored, only against Ajax did they fail to score on the road and in all fairness that is no huge surprise, they have won their last three away games on the bounce and there is very good reason to believe they will indeed score today.

So, in conclusion, we have a home team that has a 78% record of home games being over 2.75 goals and who have scored in every single home game this season against an away team that has won their last three away games on the bounce and who have scored in 10 of their last 11 games.

Take over 2.75 goals.

I am taking Sampdoria to get the win over Udinese today.

I watched Sampdoria live last week, I was actually slightly disappointed with them even though they drew 3-3 away at Fiorentina, they missed a great opportunity to get a good away win because Fiorentina was down to 10 men for 60 minutes, though it must be noted that Fiorentina did score the equaliser in the last minute of the game.

They also lost away to Juventus in the previous game, no shame in that as Juventus are by far the best team in Italy, prior to that loss they were on a six game unbeaten run and in fact, they have lost just once in the league in their last eight games. They are on a three game winning run at home, confidence remains high and they are just four points behind a Champions League spot.

Udinese is 12 points behind Sampdoria and sits in 15th spot, they are just four points above the relegation zone, they have won just once on the road from their nine away games this season but in all fairness, they have drawn four times away.

Udinese has just two wins from their last 15 Serie A games and there is very little sign that their form is set to improve all of a sudden.

Sampdoria has the form, the motivation, are full of confidence and are at home against a team in poor form overall and for those reasons, I am backing the home side today.

Take Sampdoria to win outright.

Nottingham Forest is not in great form at this time but I am going with them to beat Wigan Athletic today, who are in even worse shape than Forest.

Forest have just one win in their last eight games in the league, they have lost three of their last four league games, however, that does not tell the whole story, they did beat league leaders Leeds United 4-2 at the beginning of the month and so are more than capable of putting in a good performance, they are just seven points behind the play-off zone and a good 10 points ahead of today's opponents.

Forests problems have been recent, at one point they were well in the hunt for automatic promotion and they have the talent to dig themselves out of this hole, it really is just a matter of confidence and Wigan are the perfect opponents for them to regain that confidence.

Wigan is horrendous on the road, they have lost 11 times, drawn twice and won just once away from home, they have collected just 2 points from a possible 36 over their last 12 away games, that is really poor.

Wigans overall form includes just two wins from their last 15 league games, as I said, they are in a lot worse condition than Forest.

All things considered, I am putting my faith in Forest to get the win today, they have their problems but they are simply a better team than Wigan, they are in better shape, they have home advantage and they know they still have a chance of promotion this season, not something that applies to Wigan.

Take Nottingham Forest to win outright.

Borussia Monchengladbach is having a good season, all things considered, they are third in the standing just three points behind Bayern Munich and have built up a formidable home record.

Augsburg, by contrast, is not having the best of seasons, though, in all fairness that was expected anyway, they are in a relegation dogfight and are not what you would describe as a good road team.

Monchengladbach has won their last 11 home games in the Bundesliga, they have conceded just five goals in the run and scored an impressive 31 times, they are absolutely dominant in front of their home fans and against a team fourth bottom, it is hard to see that run coming to an end today.

Augsburg has won two of their nine road games this season, drawn two and lost five, they have lost three of their last four away games and are just the single point above the relegation zone, they are in desperate trouble and I just cannot make a case for them to get anything from this game today.

Take Monchengladbach -0.75

This game is the 2nd leg of the English league cup semi-final, it is played at Chelsea and Tottenham have a 1-0 lead from the first leg.

Away goals do not count double in the event the game ends in a draw so, as an example, if Tottenham loses 2-1 they do not go through on the away goal rule.

If the aggregate scores are level after 90 minutes then the game will go straight to penalties, hopefully, that will give you some context about the game.

The bottom line is this, if Chelsea wants to go through to face Man City in the final then they have to win by at least two goals in the 90 minutes or win on penalties.

If Tottenham is to go through then they will have to either win the game, draw the game or win on penalties.

So, the question for me from a betting angle is will Chelsea win by two clear goals in the 90 minutes and the answer for me is no.

For me, there is far more chance of Tottenham winning or drawing or Chelsea winning by a single goal than Chelsea winning by two goals and for this pick to lose that is what will have to happen.

Tottenham are without their two first-choice strikers, Kane and Son as well as Dele Alli, this is not good news and will clearly hamper them, however, their squad depth is very good, they have players that can come in as they proved last weekend when they won away at Fulham.

Of course, losing those three players when you play a top team is a problem but Chelsea are not playing like a top team, they lost 2-0 away at Arsenal, which in itself is not terrible, Arsenal are a top team, but they never even got a single shot on target, their manager ripped into them after the game and they held crisis talks last Monday, they are not a club in a good position themselves and the one thing about Tottenham that does give them an advantage over Chelsea is that their team is very united.

Chelsea have the advantage, of course, they are at home, they are playing a team that is without three of their best players but that advantage is minimised because of the internal strife at Chelsea, the poor tactics constantly employed by their manager and the fact that Tottenham has the better squad.

This pick carries a significant safety net for me and that is the handicap, I simply do not see Chelsea winning by two goals, they may win the game by a single goal but that would see stakes returned and on balance I am far more confident that Tottenham will either win or draw than Chelsea winning by two goals and with safety net of stakes returned if Chelsea win by a single goal.

Take Tottenham +1

Based purely on statistics this game should end under 2.25 goals but there is more to this particular game than just statistics.

AC Milan will be a much-changed side for this game, they have a ton of suspensions and injuries and even their star striker Gonzalo Higuain is likely to miss out due to transfer speculation, this will have an effect on this game and both, in my opinion, will lead to goals, for both sides.

The players that Milan bring in will have a point to prove and considering that they have been lacking in goals recently and tight in defence there is no saying what the changes will bring, Higuain on his day is a world class player but those days seem to be rare and his replacement, either Suso or Cutrone will relish stepping into his shoes, especially Cutrone who scored two goals against Sampdoria 9 days ago.

The defence will be almost completely changed and that will provide opportunities for Genoa who have done well against Milan in front of their home fans in recent years with three wins and one loss over their last four matchups in this stadium.

Considering all the changes that AC Milan will have to contend with and the that Genoa are not awed by facing Milan and believe they can win this game I am going with over 2.25 goals.

Over 2.25 goals

Here we go again with the Patriots in a Conference final but this is clearly not the same New England that we have seen in previous years, they are still a very good team but their aura of invincibility has gone and this game tonight could see the end of an era.

The Patriots beat the Chiefs earlier in the season but the Chiefs have simply been the better team overall, they run up the points for fun, they have an extraordinarily confident quarterback and with the creaking Patriots defence now more vulnerable than it has ever been I do see Kansas winning this game and by more than the three points on the spread.

Home advantage is there but in all fairness to the Patriots they will probably feed off of that, they are relishing the underdog tag and all the negative comments about them but there is a reason for those negative comments, it is because they are valid, Tom Brady has aged, the defence is weaker than before and their offense is not as consistent as it was.

If the Chiefs play like we all know they can then they will win, I am confident they will be able to repel the Patriots offense far more than New England will be able to contain the Chiefs offense and it would not surprise me to see the Chiefs win by double digits.

All things considered, I am going with the Chiefs -3

Massive game for both teams with the winner progressing to the Superbowl and it is the Rams that I am going with to at least cover the spread in this game and in my opinion, to probably win.

I know that the Saints saw off the Rams earlier in the season but over the last month or so I have not seen the same explosive Saints that I saw earlier in the season, in fact, in their last six games the most they won by was 14 points against Tampa Bay and apart from that game the most they have won by over that period is the six points gap they had over the Eagles last week, they have, in fact, lost twice in their last six games and won three of the other four by just three points, they basically appear to be a team that has already peaked.

The Rams have their vulnerabilities, we all know that, but they can still be explosive, they have won their last three games on the bounce by margins of 22. 16 and 8 points and I expect to see them in that sort of form again today.

It will be a close game for sure, the Saints do have home advantage but for me, they are a team that is slowing down, whereas the Rams still have that spark about them and for me, that will be the difference today.

This game will be won by the offense today and the Rams offense is simply more potent at this minute in time and for that reason, I am backing them on the spreads today.

Take the Rams +3

Two of the better Italian teams meet today in Naples and with home advantage and the better form I am backing Napoli to emerge with the win.

Napoli are second in Serie A, 12 points ahead of 5th placed Lazio, they enter this game on the back of 12 wins and 3 draws at home in the league, in fact, they have not lost at home since March 2018.

Lazio is quite decent on the road but two wins from their last six away games in Serie A shows where their vulnerability is and over the last seven meetings between these teams, both home and away, they have come away with six losses and just one draw.

Napoli are formidable at home, they are in great form and they are playing a team today that has been unable to beat them in quite a while now with mixed current form.

All things considered, I am backing Napoli to win today.

Napoli -0.5

A lot will be made of the fact that Harry Kane is injured and will not be playing for Tottenham today and his loss is huge but Tottenham has enough top-class players in their side that they can cope without him against today's sort of opponent.

Tottenham will also be without Son Heung Min, Kane's able sidekick and back up but they are a far superior side to Fulham and with players like Alli, Eriksen, Lamela and Moura all more than capable of scoring goals they still have enough firepower to overpower Fulham today.

Tottenham is the best away side in the Premier League, they have collected 30 points from a possible 36, they are third in the standings and a win today will keep their slim title hopes alive.

Fulham is second bottom, they have won just three times at home this season, they have just two wins in their last 19 league games and enter this game having lost their last three games on the bounce.

Despite being without their first two choice strikers I cannot see anything other than a convincing Tottenham win today

Tottenham -0.75

Real Madrid are not the team they were last season, but it would be foolish to dismiss them out of hand even though some of their recent results have been shocking.

As an example, they have lost twice in their last five home games and not to what one regards as top teams, Levante and Real Sociedad but those two results apart they have won six and drawn once (against Atletico Madrid) in their other seven home games.

Confidence is an issue right now and the club is in transformation but they still have an impressive squad and on their day they are more than capable of beating any team in world football.

Their opponents today Sevilla, are on the same points as Real Madrid and on the road have become draw specialists, drawing four of their last six away games, losing the other two, which tells you they have gone six away games in La Liga without a win.

I fully expect to see a better Real Madrid today, they do lift their game when they play the better teams and that does include Sevilla and in front of their home fans I see them winning by a couple of goals, Sevilla simply are not prolific on the road right now, they cannot buy a win and Madrid should prove to be to string over the 90 minutes.

Take Real Madrid - 0.75

Rotherham United are a poor team, I expect them to be relegated this season, they are currently fourth bottom of the Championship in England and I see them going in one direction and that is down.

Brentford are not doing too great this season, they are certainly better than their position in 17th indicates and to some extent, they are proving that with a run now of two wins and three draws in their last five league games, that follows an appalling run of just one win in 15 games.

Rotherham has just one win in their last 20 league games and they enter this game with four losses and just one win in their last five league games.

Brentford have turned the corner, their confidence has been restored, they are now playing far better than earlier in the season and when they are playing as they are right now they are a much better side than Rotherham,

Rotherham is in poor form by contrast and home advantage is not enough for them to get anything from this game.

All things considered, Brentford -0.5 is the pick.

This is the second leg of a Copa del Rey game, the equivalent to the English FA Cup and Real Sociedad hold a slight advantage.

Anyone watching these cup games recently will know that they are being taken seriously and you can expect a full competitive game today.

The first leg finished 0-0 and away goals do count double, however, recent form favours Real Sociedad and they have home advantage.

Sociedad beat Real Madrid 2-0 in La Liga just 11 days ago in Madrid, a hugely impressive result, even against a Madrid side in decline, they then drew against Betis in this competition and then beat Espanyol 3-2 in La Liga, those three results follow a run of three losses in La Liga and it is clear that their confidence and form has turned around.

Betis have gone the other way, they have lost two and drawn two in their last four games in all competitions following a run of six wins and one draw in their previous seven games, in better words their form has dropped off significantly.

With home advantage and the better morale, I am backing Real Sociedad to win this game outright.

Back Real Sociedad

I was tempted to back the Eagles on the spread but the confidence was just not there, however, I do see this being a low scoring game and that is the much better pick for me than doing the spread.

You cannot ignore the thrashing the Saints handed out to the Eagles earlier in the season but circumstances have changed since that game and it is highly unlikely that New Orleans will repeat that sort of win again today.

The Saints are the better team, however, this is the playoffs, the Eagles continue to defy expectations and they will be a better team today than the team that lost 48-7, they will certainly defend a lot better and will provide far more potency up front.

The New Orleans defence will feel confident that they can keep the Philadelphia offense at bay and I fully expect the Eagles defence to put in a strong performance today.

The Saints will probably win, they could easily win by double digits but at the same time the Eagles could once again rise to the occasion and to some extent that is what I expect but it will not be because they are running the points in but because their defence does a much better job containing the Saints offense.

All things considered, I am going with under 53 points.

Due to time issues outside my control, I have been unable to provide an extensive preview of this game, however, it has been fully analyzed and comes with maximum confidence.

I am going with the Chargers to be within 4 points of the Patriots today.

That is not to say that the Patriots will not win but in the event they do I do not see it being a comfortable win and that this game will be very tight.

I would also not be at all surprised if the Chargers managed to get the win, they are much improved, have huge confidence in their ability and believe they can beat anybody.

Take the Chargers +4

Earlier in the season I would have had this game, in LA, as a walkover for the Rams, however, the Cowboys have improved as the season has progressed and if anything the Rams have shown more and more vulnerabilities but that said, I still believe that the Rams will win, I just could not say hand on heart that they would beat the spread.

In Ezekiel Elliott, the Cowboys have a force of nature and I do see the Rams struggling to contain him and I expect the Cowboys to break 24 points in this game.

The Rams, of course, have Todd Gurley and the Rams offense, when they are in the mood, scream points and I have them breaking 30 points.

How many points either team goes beyond what I am expecting from them I am not sure, thus why I am unable to predict who covers the spread but based on my analysis of the points that each team will get it tells me that they will comfortably beat 48.5 points and go well beyond 50 points.

All things considered, I am going with over 48.5 points on the totals.

From very early on I had the Chiefs as one of my two teams in this division to make the AFC Championship game and I have not changed my mind, the only issue for me in this game is whether the Chiefs can cover the spread and I am convinced they will do.

The weather is not great and that may have an effect but for me, that is a variable that I cannot calculate for either team with any confidence and will not play a part in my thinking in terms of the winner, on the totals maybe, but not in the context of which team will emerge the winner.

The Chiefs have home advantage and that is significant, they have a 7-1 record whereas the Colts on the road are 5-4.

The Colts have put together an impressive run and the Chiefs have stumbled slightly, however, this game is the biggest now for both teams and I fully expect the rested Chiefs to be at their best today.

In Mahomes, they have a game-winner and I am very confident he will put in a top performance and if he does that then, in my opinion, the Chiefs will have too much for the Colts to handle as the game progresses.

All things considered, I am going with the Chiefs to get the win in front of their home fans and to win the game by at least 6 points and most probably by double digits.

Chiefs -5

I have a soft spot for the Eagles and was pleased they made the playoffs but the chances are that their attempt to retain the Super Bowl will come to an end today, but I do not see them being beaten out of sight and am confident they will be within 6.5 points of the Bears come the end of the game.

Let's be honest, the Eagles have been poor generally and are lucky to be here today but they have been improving, their confidence has been restored and they enter this game on the back of a three-game winning run and five wins from their last six games and that includes an impressive win over the Rams.

The Bears have been very impressive since a poor start to the season, they have lost just the once in their last ten games and are 7-1 at home, they are formidable opponents for sure and it will take either a bad game from Chicago or Philadelphia playing out of their skins to stop the Bears progressing.

I do feel that the Bears will win but the Eagles have found their mojo again and I do expect them to be far more competitive than the spread suggests and do see them staying close to the Bears throughout.

All things considered, I am going for a Bears win but for the Eagles to cover the spread.

Take the Eagles +6.5

I am going with the LA Chargers to cover the spread in this game and most likely win outright.

The Ravens did beat the Chargers in week 16 but the score is misleading and if anything will motivate the Chargers to prove that result was more a fluke than a fair reflection of both teams capabilities.

The Chargers have an impressive road record of 7-1 with that only loss being against the Ravens a couple of weeks back. they are 8-2 over their last ten games and have had some very good results in that run, including a narrow win over the Chiefs.

The Ravens are 6-2 at home, they are in this position today thanks to a three-game winning run and were lucky to get home field advantage, they will be confident of beating the Chargers again obviously but for me, that confidence is misplaced.

Based on current form and what I have personally seen if both teams play to their true capabilities the Chargers will win, they have been the better side all season long and I expect that to show today.

Take the Chargers +2.5

Stake 2 pts

All my picks are based on the interpretation of statistics, context and personal judgement. Each selection is primarily based on available value for long-term profits and not short priced easy favourites. Ultimately, I use my own analysis in combination with intelligent based software.

Recommended stakes are a percentage of a starting bank and given as points, as an example, 1pt would be 1% of the bank.

Selection

The Vikings need a couple of things to go right for them to make the playoffs and the very first task is for them to beat the Redskins today.

The Redskins have been very poor recently, they are plagued with injuries and I just cannot see them getting anything from this game other than a beating.

The Eagles have everything to play for while the Redskins just want to go home and nurse their wounds.

Eagles -6.5 for me.

Stake - 2pts