8* Oklahoma (3:30 ET): I fashion myself as a bit of a 'contrarian,' which many times leads me to take "unpopular" sides, most of them being underdogs. But here, my view is most are going to call for #4 Oklahoma to be in letdown mode following its impressive 38-20 win over TCU last week. Trust me, if anyone knows just how well the OU played Saturday night, it's me as I chose to lay the points with them and came away even more impressed w/ Lincoln Riley's outfit. All the Sooners have to do now is win out, which would include the return of the Big 12 Championship Game. I understand why many would consider this a letdown spot and it's a lot of points to lay. But sometimes you just have to look at the two teams and realize one is vastly superior than the other in every conceivable way. Thus, I'll lay the big number. 

How can a team possibly be asked to lay this many points on the conference road? Well, let's start w/ the opponent. Kansas, as I'm sure you know, is atrocious. Really, that's putting things pretty kindly as the Jayhawks have lost nine in a row since beating FCS school SE Missouri State in the season opener. This is not their first time getting 30 or more points in Big 12 play. Earlier in the year, they were +37 at TCU and lost 43-0. Last week, they were +31.5 at Texas and did manage to cover, losing only 42-27 in a game where the total yardage discrepancy was actually not sizable (371-364). But note that Kansas did score a meaningless late TD w/ only 11 seconds remaining, which capped an 80-yard drive. Prior to that, they had only 264 total yards of offense. They also trailed 28-7 after the first quarter. In conference play, the Jayhawks are already being outscored by an even 31.0 PPG. Now they play the best that the Big XII has to offer. 

Oklahoma has actually covered four of the previous six times it has been favored by 31 or more points. One of those came LY, hosting Kansas as 40-pt chalk, and they won 56-3. A year later and I'm not sure why anyone would expect anything different. The Sooners' defense hasn't always been great this season, but the offense can probably name its point total. QB Baker Mayfield is going to win the Heisman (book it!) and could use this game for some additional "highlight material." Consider that the Kansas offense has been shut out twice in Big 12 play (by Iowa State and TCU) and held to only nine points by Baylor (yikes). 8* Oklahoma

8* Minnesota (12:00 ET): Northwestern actually finds itself among the Top 25 in the latest installment of the CFP rankings, but to me, it's a "token gesture" by the committee for the Wildcats winning five straight games. Upon closer inspection, that ranking simply does not hold up as the win streak includes three overtime wins. One of them, against Michigan State, is the most "quality of the bunch but then again we saw just how overrated Sparty was last week (told you!). Against Wisconsin and Penn State, the Wildcats were outscored 64-31. Then there was that early season 41-17 loss to Duke, which keeps getting uglier w/ each passing week. I'm not saying that Minnesota is the best opponent N'western will have faced over the month, but they're going to be a very motivated team Saturday in Evanston simply based on the fact they need one more win to become bowl eligible. Take the points here. 

Minnesota hosts Wisconsin next week, so if they want to get bowl eligible, this week is probably their best chance to do it. I was impressed by the way the Gophers came out last week and destroyed Nebraska 54-21, rolling up 500+ total yds of offense in the process. It was their most points scored in any Big 10 game since 2006, so perhaps PJ Fleck's offense is starting "to take." After a 3-0 SU start, the Big 10 portion of the schedule has not really gone as well as HC Fleck would have hoped in his 1st season here (2-5 SU), but making a bowl is still a milestone worth achieving. The Gophers have basically had the opposite luck of N'western when it comes to close games this year, at least in conference play, as three of their five losses have come by a TD or less. Believe it or not, but for the year, Minnesota has a better scoring differential compared to Northwestern!

Despite being 5-2 SU in Big 10 play, N'western is only outscoring foes by two points per game while outgaining them by just three yards per game! Certainly, Pat Fitzgerald's team will remember what happened in this game last year as they were stomped 29-12 up in Minneapolis. However, this is simply NOT a team I'd want to choose as a favorite. Consider that it's been more than three seasons since they've been favored by 7.5 to 10 pts in Big 10 play and they lost that game outright (to Illinois) w/ bowl eligibility on the line (reg season finale in '14). Minnesota has a strong pass defense (183.9 YPG allowed), which is 3rd best in the Big 10, and that should be enough to at least keep them in this one until the very end. 8* Minnesota

10* UNLV (9:30 ET): Last Friday, UNLV hosted BYU in a game that was pretty important for their bowl eligibility. They opened as a favorite, but by kickoff had moved to a slight dog. Turns out that the smart money (and I) were right as the Rebels lost 31-21 to the Cougars even w/ a slight edge in total yardage (447-425). The game really hinged on UNLV being -2 in turnover differential. That result now leaves them in a scenario where they must win their final two reg season games to get to six wins and bowl eligibility. Up first in New Mexico, who just one year removed from a 9-4 SU season (including bowl win!) appears to have given up on HC Bob Davie and his antiquated coaching tactics. The Lobos, who have no shot at bowl eligibility, have dropped five straight to fall to 3-7 SU on the year. With more to play for, I'm backing UNLV in this spot.

UNLV never led last week. Despite that, they were never really out of the game, which swung on a Johnny Stanton INT in the end zone in the first half. At the time, the game was still scoreless. BYU would go onto score touchdowns on each of its next three drives to take control. Now I really haven't necessarily changed my evaluation of the Rebels from last week. Rather, this play has everything to do w/ the opposition. Also, as noted in last week's analysis, UNLV had won B2B games prior to the BYU loss. It's been a long, hard climb for Tony Sanchez's team, whose season started w/ a historic loss (as 45-pt favorites) to FCS Howard. I think that they really want this bowl berth and will be the more motivated of the two sides Friday night. 

Meanwhile, motivation may be approaching its nadir here in the Davie era (6th year in Albuquerque). Reports began to surface early on this season that Davie had lost the locker room over alleged player mistreatment. We've yet to confirm that validity of those claims, but it sure seems as if things went south in a hurry. Four times in the five-game losing streak, the Lobos have lost by double digits. Granted, no one expected them to win at Texas A&M last week, but a 55-19 loss to a team w/ its own coaching issues was pretty bad. The Lobos were outgained 562-144. This defense has not been good much of the year and the running game which carried the offense a year ago has declined from 1st to 34th in yards per attempt. Turnovers have also been a major issue w/ 15 fumbles lost (2nd most in FBS) and a -15 margin overall. UNLV is 4-2 as an underdog this year while New Mexico is 0-4 ATS when favored, so keep an eye on that line (play stands regardless!). 10* UNLV

10* Miami OH (7:00 ET): I think it would be fair to say that these teams represent the two biggest disappointments in the MAC this season. Miami actually finished tied atop the MAC East last year (w/ Ohio) and did so despite starting that season 0-6 SU (won final 6 reg season games!). Eastern Michigan ended a nearly 30-year bowl drought by going 7-6 SU itself. But in 2017, things have not according to plan either Oxford or Ypsilanti. Eastern Michigan is already eliminated from bowl contention and that can be pinned on the fact they've been quite unsuccessful in "close games." Despite having a positive scoring differential in conference play, their record is only 1-5! Six of their losses this year have come by a touchdown or less. Miami, on the other hand, still has a shot at bowl eligibility (must win final 2 games) and that's a big reason I'm on them here. 

All the signs were there for an Eastern Michigan decline this season as LY's team won five games by a TD or less and pulled four outright upsets. They really "snuck up" on the oddsmakers as well by going 10-3 ATS. Remember that this program is just two years removed from going 1-11 SU! Chris Creighton (4th year here) has them pointed in the right direction and the Eagles probably will be improved NEXT season. But 2018 seems like a long ways away for a team that had much bigger aspirations this year. I wonder about their psyche as for the first time this season, they were beaten by double digits in a MAC game, this coming last week against Central Michigan. QB Brogan Roback threw FIVE interceptions in the 42-30 loss up in Mt. Pleasant. The loss also sealed the fact that the Eagles won't be returning to the postseason this year.

Speaking of quarterbacks, Miami got its starter back LW vs. Akron and you saw the difference that made in a 24-14 win and cover over Akron. Gus Ragland was expected to lead this team to better things in 2017 and while the MAC East is no longer attainable, a bowl bid still is. Ragland has one of the top receivers, not just in the MAC but the entire country, to throw to in James Gardner (886 yds, 10 TDs). Despite a -2 TO margin, the RedHawks had no problem winning going away LW (led 24-7 entering the 4Q) w/ a 420-278 edge in total yards. Defensively, the RedHawks are pretty good at stopping the pass (have not allowed a single 300 yd game YTD) and they also registered six sacks last week vs. Akron. Miami will be heavily favored next week to beat hideous Ball State in their finale, so a win here all but assures they go 6-6 SU and become bowl eligible. They're 5-1 ATS their last six games where the line is a field goal or less (either way) and I'll be laying the short number here. 10* Miami OH

8* Kent State (7:00 ET): I probably don't need to tell you that Kent is not a very good football team. Of course, injuries have definitely taken a toll on the Golden Flashes, which is why they come into tonight sporting only a 2-8 SU record. However, for this game, I do believe there is some value in taking them. Central Michigan (6-4) just clinched a bowl berth last week by pulling its second consecutive minor upset, this one over Eastern Michigan (42-30). So there's a natural letdown that follows for a Chippewas team that has won three straight and four of its last five overall. This being Kent State's home finale, I don't think they'll be lacking in motivation and the number is generous, about four points too many according to my own power rankings. Take the points. 

Kent's biggest issue all season has been at the quarterback position where an injury to Nick Holley has really rendered the offense pretty impotent. Out of 130 FBS teams, the Golden Flashes rank 129th in both yards and scoring. QB George Bollas has a very ugly 0-5 TD-INT ratio the L2 games, though Kent did scored 20 points in its last game, it's most against any FBS opponent all season. It should be noted that game (at Western Michigan) would have been a lot closer than the 48-20 final were it not for THREE defensive scores against the Golden Flashes. It is imperative here that Bollas take care of the football as CMU has 16 interceptions on the year, five of them coming last week! However, as I've stated so many times in the past, turnovers are such a volatile statistic. One week or season, they can totally be in your favor, while the next you're on the wrong end. I'll call for things to go MUCH better in that department this week for Kent.

Central Michigan may have a "ball-hawking" type defense, but it also gives up plenty of points. They've allowed 23 points in all but one game this season (to Ball State). To go back to my earlier point, the nine TO's they've forced the L2 games have been huge for them. I realize that the Chips still have an outside shot at winning the MAC West, but prevailing here by any kind of margin is not likely to the focus. They were virtually dead even in total yardage last week vs. Eastern Michigan, a game which was decided by those aforementioned five interceptions. CMU is only +5.3 points and +5.6 yards per game in conference play, so this is by no means a dominant team. Kent did beat them LY (as 14-pt road dogs!), 27-24, on a last second field goal. The revenge factor here will be overrated as I look for the Golden Flashes to "show some pride" in the final home game for their seniors. 8* Kent State

8* New England (8:30 ET): Normally, I would side w/ the home underdog in this situation, but I just don't see how an inept Denver offense - that is still, sadly, being quarterbacked by Brock Osweiler - can keep pace w/ the rested Patriots on Sunday night. The Broncos went into their (early) bye week (Week 5) at 3-1 SU, but since then, the season has taken a dramatic downturn (four straight losses). Ironically, it began w/ a loss on Sunday night - as 13.5-pt favorites - to the Giants (Giants only win of season!). Then, they had to play three in a row on the road, and lost all of them. They've been outscored 124-52 during the four-game losing streak and while they'd outgained every opponent prior to last week, it's become pretty obvious the defense no longer can carry this team to anything meaningful. Lay the points. 

New England came into the season as the prohibitive Super Bowl favorite, but two losses in their first four games quickly tempered enthusiasm. But they've since won four in a row, admittedly all against bad teams. But, thankfully, Denver qualifies as a bad team as long as either Siemien or Osweiler is under center (I know Paxton Lynch has been banged up, but how awful must he look in practice). In two games vs. NE last year, Osweiler (w/ Houston) had a 1:4 TD:INT ratio and was outscored 61-16. The Pats came here and beat a better Denver team LY, 16-3 as a field goal favorite. The Broncos defense still ranks highly, but they struggle to defend the tight end and that's a major issue when the opponent has Rob Gronkowski. 

Last week, the Broncos allowed more than 300 total yds for the first time all year (419) and were gashed by the Eagles to the tune of 51 points. Therefore, off their bye week, the Pats have to be salivating. Bill Belichick has always been particularly lethal off the bye week, owning a 6-1 SU record the last seven years and failing to cover only twice. This is still the top-ranked offenses in the game (27.0 PPG) and unless Denver can somehow summon efforts from past seasons, their inept offense simply won't be able to keep pace. 8* New England

10* San Francisco (4:25 ET): I am - quite frankly - shocked that the Giants are getting so much love here as they've moved from a one-point dog to a 2.5/3 pt favorite. Granted, they're playing the 0-9 49ers, but in case you haven't looked at the standings in awhile, the G-Men have only one win themselves and it was over a Denver team that hasn't won in a month. Big Blue is a complete dumpster fire right now w/ the effort level and Eli Manning's future both being called into question. HC Ben McAdoo's days may be numbered here. The performance LW at home vs. the Rams was downright horrendous as they lost 51-17. There is simply no way I would want to lay points w/ this team right now, especially on the road. I'll call for San Francisco to win for the 1st time all year. Take the points. 

Now Niners' starting QB CJ Beathard has been pretty awful in his own right and it's probably only a matter of time before Jimmy Garoppolo sees action. But this team has played hard for 1st year HC Kyle Shanahan, at least they were earlier in the season when they suffered five straight defeats by a field goal or less, two of those coming in overtime. Since then, it's gotten ugly, but they did have to play both Dallas and Philadelphia in the L3 weeks. The offense has managed only 10 points each of its last three games, but a Giants defense which clearly overachieved LY won't offer much resistance here. Remember - in that lone Giants' win this season, they were outgained 412-266, but benefited from a +3 turnover margin as 13.5-pt underdogs. 

Manning's days are numbered as the Giants QB and they should be. Injuries at the receiver position have obviously taken their toll this year, but what most fail to realize is this was a terrible offense last season as well. In 10 of their last 14 games, the Giants have not scored more than 17 points. That's atrocious. They come into this game averaging only 16.1 PPG, which barely beats out the 49ers' 15.9 PPG scoring average. Factoring in the homefield advantage here I just don't understand the line move. The Giants appear to have quit on the season and a complete teardown is needed here. The 49ers will play hard for a 1st year HC, at least until they finally get into the win column. This game here, on paper, shapes up as their most "winnable" of the entire season. As a home dog of three points or less, the 49ers are 5-2 ATS the L3 seasons and those have all been "lean years" like this one. 10* San Francisco

8* Green Bay (1:00 ET): The Bears are favored for the first time ALL YEAR here and for the 1st time over the Packers since 2008! The latter half of that statement would have been considered unfathomable even a month ago, but Aaron Rodgers breaking his collarbone changed the entire landscape in the NFC North. Plus, GB is working on a short week here (lost Monday night) while Chicago is off a bye. However, I can't agree with the degree to which the Monsters of the Midway are favored here. Again, they haven't been favored in a single game all year prior to this. The last time they were favored was Week 10 of last season when they lost outright to Tampa Bay. Even the Browns have been favored (once) during that time span. Not only did the Bears lose outright that last time they were favored, they are 0-5 ATS as chalk the last two seasons, losing all five of those games outright! The last time Chicago covered a game when favored was Wk 12 of 2014! Green Bay's stock probably couldn't be lower right now, so I'll grab them at an inflated price.

It's been pretty ugly w/ Brett Hundley under center for the Pack. Including the game where he replaced Rodgers (at Minnesota), the team has lost all three games (0-3 ATS) and has been held to 17 pts or less every time. Last week may have been the nadir of the Mike McCarthy era as off a bye, Hundley appeared ill-prepared at home vs. Detroit. He now has a 58.4 passer rating w/ a 1-4 TD-INT ratio. But, against the odds, I expect Hundley to play better this week even though he's facing a better defense. Also, it's not like Chicago's offense has shown any capability to blow teams out. They average only 16.7 PPG despite getting plenty of touchdowns from the defense. In fact, the only time they've topped 17 pts in their L5 games was an OT win over Baltimore where they got a defensive score. 

Mitchell Trubisky is the future for Chicago at the QB position, but the rookie has predictably struggled despite a 3-1 ATS mark. There was the infamous win over Carolina two weeks ago where he completed only four passes and the Bears only won because of TWO defensive scores. The Bears are 4-0 ATS at home this year, but again they were a dog in all four games. The last time they were favored by six points or more was Week 1 of the 2014 season and - you guessed it - they lost outright! This promises to be an ugly, low-scoring game where points are at a premium, thus taking the points is naturally the way to go. The Bears are not accustomed to being EXPECTED to beat Green Bay and should "struggle" in the unfamiliar role. 8* Green Bay

8* Oklahoma (8:00 ET): This has now become THE game in the Big 12 this year as the winner is likely assured of being no worse than #5 in the next CFP rankings, plus will have the conference lead all to themselves. Ironically, both Oklahoma and TCU have lost to Iowa State this year. Oklahoma lost to the Cyclones as 30-pt (!) home favorites, 38-31, back on October 7th. TCU lost to them at home, 14-7, just two weeks ago. That's the ONLY loss for both teams all season. Both have beaten Oklahoma State, Kansas State and Texas. OU gets the higher ranking likely due to their win at Ohio State early in the year and I don't really think there's many people right now (outside of Ft. Worth) claiming the Horned Frogs are the better team here. Throw in the fact the game takes place in Norman and I'll lay what is actually a pretty short number Saturday night.

While they did lose to Iowa State, Oklahoma is still 57-8 SU its last 65 games at Memorial Stadium. So anytime you get the opportunity to lay a TD or less w/ them here, it's probably a good idea to do so. Sure enough, there has been only one time in the previous three seasons that they've been faves of 7 pts or less here in Norman and they won easily, 44-24 over West Virginia, back in 2015. While it's true these teams have a history of playing close games (L5 all decided by 7 pts or less), my thinking is that works AGAINST TCU here. Typically, the favorite is the one undervalued in Top 25 matchups and that's what we have here. 

OU averages 45 points and 608 yards per game. They will - easily - be the top opponent TCU has taken on this season. Meanwhile, the Sooners have already gone to Ohio State and won. Last week at Oklahoma State, Heisman favorite Baker Mayfield and the offense put on an unreal display w/ 62 points and 785 yards. I just don't know how you stop this offense. TCU does rank 1st nationally against the run, but it's the passing game where OU truly excels. With just 31 pts - total - scored in its last two games, I'm just not sure how the Horned Frogs can keep up. OU has a huge edge at QB in this matchup w/ Mayfield over Kenny Hill and that's going to be a big part of the difference here. Yes, TCU was able to win at Oklahoma State earlier in the year, but as we saw last week, it's the Sooners that are the stronger Bedlam rival and I just can't pick against them at home. 8* Oklahoma

8* USC (4:00 ET): Most would be quick to call Southern Cal's season a disappointment as the Men of Troy came in to 2017 w/ playoff aspirations. But even with the two losses, this still a team to be feared. Navigating a schedule that had ZERO bye weeks was practically insurmountable, so I'm not surprised at all to see the multiple blemishes on the resume. Plus, let's look at the two losses, shall we? One was on a Friday night at Wazzu, a game where the Trojans lost multiple OL to injury. The other was at Notre Dame, who is the third best team in the country according to the committee. The last two weeks have given us a glimpse into USC's vast potential. They've routed both Arizona State and Arizona to the tune of 97-52. I don't think they'll have much problem at all w/ Colorado, even in Boulder. 

Now Colorado has been a true disappointment this year. Last year at this time, the Buffs were on their way to being the surprise winner of the Pac 12 South and playing in the Conference Championship Game. No one expected a repeat of that, but a 5-5 SU/3-7 ATS record is definitely not what the faithful envisioned either. They actually enter this game in last place in the North Division (USC in first). While it was a 3-0 start, that included wins over Texas State and Northern Colorado. Pac 12 play has not gone well as they're just 2-5 SU and the wins were over Oregon State (by only three) and Cal, the two worst teams in the league. Last week, they were beaten 41-30 by Arizona State after giving up 24 pts in the fourth quarter and nearly 600 total yards for the game. USC had just routed that same ASU team two weeks ago and it's pretty frightening to think what Sam Darnold and the Trojan offense might do to this Buffaloes defense.

USC is also only 3-7 ATS and was actually 1-7 before covering each of the last two weeks. Their market favoribility took a major hit after the Notre Dame game, but that's fine by me as I fully expect them to win out and play Washington in the Pac 12 Title Game. Not only has it been 97 points from Darnold and company the L2 games, it's been B2B 600+ yard efforts as well. Given Colorado just allowed Arizona State to run for 381 yards last week, I'd say this is a bad matchup facing an offense that has 672 yds over land its last two games, 410 alone from Ronald Jones. The Colorado defense has given up an average of 35 PPG the L5 weeks and this will be the best offense they've faced during that time. CU has NEVER beaten USC in 11 all-time tries, not even LY when they won the Division. In fact, the fact they "only" lost 21-17 was quite misleading as the Trojans outgained them 548-371 and kneeled inside the CU five-yard line to run the clock out. I look for USC to make it three blowouts in a row. 8* USC

10* Ohio State (12:00 ET): Judging by the ticket count (as of Thursday afternoon), it certainly appears as if no one wants any part of the 13th ranked Buckeyes this week, even though they're at home and HC Urban Meyer is typically outstanding when coming off a loss. The public disdain does make sense; after all, OSU was routed in Iowa last Saturday - 55-24 - yet is still laying a big number here. But at the risk of offending any readers/clients from East Lansing or those who simply may "bleed" Sparty green, Michigan State is a highly overrated outfit and very fortunate to have the record it does. Their five Big 10 victories have come by a TOTAL of 25 points and none were by more than eight! Not only is this line justified; it's actually not high enough!

Expectations were way down in East Lansing coming into the season. The Spartans were coming off a 3-9 SU year and a lot of talent elected to bolt in the Spring. Nothing that happened in the non-conference portion of the schedule seemed to indicate this team was ready for big things. There were two "ho-hum" wins over MAC schools (Bowling Green, Western Michigan), followed by a 38-18 thumping at the hands of Notre Dame. But here in Big 10 play, all they've done is win close games, save for one. Notable wins include one over Michigan where Sparty was +5 in turnover margin, thereby enabling them to win a bad weather game where they barely gained 250 total yards. The win at Minnesota, admittedly, shouldn't have been as close as it ended up considering MSU led big before getting backdoored. But the following week saw a highly misleading final in their favor, 17-9 over Indiana, where they scored two late fourth quarter TD's to not just steal the win, but the cover as well. Mark Dantonio got a dose of his "own medicine" the following week in a 3 OT loss to N'western (only Big 10 loss). Then came last week where they upset Penn State in East Lansing, yet another game that was heavily impacted by mother nature (three-hour lightning delay). Man, this team sure seems to win a lot of bad weather games. 

Two years ago, here in Columbus, the Spartans won another bad weather game. This one as 14-pt dogs, 17-14. This Saturday is expected to be chilly (high of 40 degrees), but no rain is expected. I know that NO ONE wants to hear this right now, but in my mind, Ohio State would still be a favorite over any team in the country, save for Alabama. The Buckeyes average 43 PPG. Michigan State averages only 24 PPG. I'm calling for a three TD victory for the home team here as they're stock couldn't be any lower. I just do NOT believe in Michigan State at all as I don't even believe they are a Top 25 team in the country! 10* Ohio State

8* BYU (10:30 ET): It has, quite obviously, been a terrible season in Provo, both on the field and at the betting window. Brigham Young failed to cover in any of its first seven games this season and the lone SU win during that stretch came against an FCS school, Portland State, in the opener. Once they dropped a game, 33-17 at hideous East Carolina, the Cougars' season was, in essence, done. But I've liked the way they've still competed for HC Kalani Sitake the L2 weeks, covering both games, despite nothing to play for. They even won a game, two weeks ago, 41-20 over San Jose State. Then, last week saw them stay inside the number at a much improved Fresno State team, losing "only" 20-13 as 11.5-pt dogs. This week, they're in Vegas on a Friday night against a UNLV team that hasn't been very trustworthy when laying points. I'll grab the number here w/ the short road dog. 

UNLV came into this season thinking bowl game, which would be a first under HC Tony Sanchez, a local favorite due to his ties to the high school scene. This is Sanchez's third season here and in the previous two, the Rebels have won three and four games. Going back to 2010, only UNLV team ('13) has won more than four games in a season. Four is where they're at now, meaning they'll need to win two of the final three to become bowl eligible. Rebels' fans are probably thinking this can be one of those two, but as alluded to earlier, this team is untrustworthy when favored. They're only 5-8 ATS in the role under Sanchez, including 1-2-1 ATS this year (2-2 SU). They did push LW vs. Hawaii, but also lost outright to Utah State (52-28!) the last time they were a short fave here in Sam Boyd Stadium. 

BYU was tied w/ Fresno State last week (on the road) entering the fourth quarter and still finished w/ the edge in total yardage and first downs. The week previous, they rolled up nearly 600 yds total offense and forced five turnovers in a 41-20 win and cover (1st of season) over San Jose State. Now, QB Tanner Mangum is done for the year (ACL), but this is the SIXTH time in the last eight seasons that BYU has lost its starting QB to a season-ending injury and they've persevered before. The unknown factor at QB here will make them more difficult to prepare for anyway. Speaking of QB's, UNLV's Johnny Stanton was playing linebacker just three weeks ago. He too is only in there because of injuries. The Rebels have not beaten BYU since '04 and remember this is a team that lost outright to FCS Howard (as 45-pt chalk) in the season opener. 8* BYU

8* Seattle (8:25 ET): The Seahawks took a brutal loss last week, falling to the Redskins (17-14) despite a rather sizable edge in total yardage (437-244). It appeared as if they were going to prevail when QB Russell Wilson led one of his patented late game rallies and a TD pass to Doug Baldwin put them up 14-10 w/ only 1:34 to go. But the usually stout defense wilted and conceded a 70-yard TD drive in just 35 seconds to lose the game. Blair Walsh going 0 for 3 on FG attempts hardly helped matters. So now, no longer even in first place in the NFC West, Seattle must travel to Arizona on a short week, laying points, and they're likely w/o Earl Thomas. Still though, I see enough firepower to get by a Cardinals team that is not as good as its record. 

Arizona is somehow 4-4 SU, despite being outscored by 62 points on the season. To put that scoroing differential in its proper context, only five teams have worse ones and that includes the Giants, 49ers, Colts and Browns. Now last year, the team did have a scoring differential that was indicative of better play than the record, but w/ so many injuries this year, it's pretty surprising to see them at .500. David Johnson was lost to injury back in Week 1 and probably isn't going to return. Of course, with Adrian Peterson now in the fold, that's no longer the issue it once was. But the fact remains that three of their wins have been at the expense of the Colts and 49ers (2) and two of those were in overtime. So again, this isn't really a competitive .500 team per se. All four losses have come by double digits. 

Seattle's defense has played two bad games this year, against Tennessee and Houston. The other six have seen them allow no more than 17 points. That's significant b/c Arizona has broken the 20 pt barrier only one time since Week 1. Another key here is success in primetime games. The Seahawks are 20-3-1 SU in them since 2010 and won their TNF game each of the last two seasons. Last time they were off a loss, they played a road game in primetime and destroyed Indianapolis 46-18. Coming off a game where he had a career-high 37 carries, I don't see Peterson being as effective here against what is a far better defensive front anyway. These teams are simply not in the same class and the pointspread is too short. 8* Seattle

8* Toledo (7:00 ET): These are the two best teams in the MAC and a rematch is likely in the Conference Championship Game next month in Detroit. Toledo is the ONLY team in the conference w/o a loss (5-0) while Ohio (entering Tuesday) is tied w/ Akron for the lead in the East Division at 4-1 SU. Something will have to give here as Toledo is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in the road favorite role while Ohio has covered 10 of its last 13 in the underdog role. Furthermore, the Bobcats are 7-2 at the betting window this year. However, this will be - BY FAR - the toughest test to date for Frank Solich's team as Toledo's only loss all year was to still unbeaten Miami. And that's Miami FL, not Miami OH. The line has come down pretty significantly since the open and, to me, that has created a situation where there's value on the Rockets. Lay the short number. 

Toledo also has revenge here for a 31-26 loss last year (as 16-point favorites!) in the Glass Bowl. That game saw both teams roll up 500+ yards of offense, but the Rockets never led. It was their first loss to the Bobcats since '88, but keep in mind these teams do not play every season. Something history buffs may find interesting is these two teams have combined for NINE MAC Title Game appearances, but have won it only twice (both times by Toledo) and not since '04. If they were to meet in Detroit next month, it would be the first time we got Ohio vs. Toledo there. The Rockets haven't even been to the MAC Title Game since '04, which is astounding when you think about it as they have 16 1st or 2nd place finishes in the West since the conference split in '96. Ohio won the East last year. 

This year should be "Toledo's year." Western Michigan is nowhere close to as good as it was last year and Northern Illinois is still rebuilding. Plus, Toledo already beat N Illinois and won't play WMU until the reg season finale when they already might have the division wrapped up. This team has covered its last four games and is outscoring MAC opponents by 20.6 PPG while outgaining them by almost 200 YPG! Ohio has scored 45 pts three consecutive weeks, but did so against lesser competition. They did lose outright - here at home - to Central Michigan as 10-pt chalk earlier in the year. Last week, despite being Miami 45-28 (and I had the Bobcats), total yardage was basically even. All but one of Toledo's conference wins have come by double digits and while this one may not follow the pattern, it doesn't have to. 8* Toledo

8* Miami OH (7:30 ET): There certainly seems to be some sharp money on the RedHawks here as they've gone from laying four points at the open to almost a touchdown at all shops (as of press time). It's certainly been a disappointing season in Oxford as there was a ton of optimism following last year's finish to the regular season where the team ended on a six-game win streak. That disappointment is reflected in a 2-7 ATS record this season, which includes a 1-5 mark when favored. Yet that hasn't stopped oddsmakers (or bettors for that matter!) here as Miami's opponent this week is a major surprise being on top of the MAC East (tied w/ Ohio). I'm going to lean on what happened to Akron in Toledo two weeks ago and lay the points Tuesday.

Though 4-1 in MAC play, Akron has outscored its conference opponents by only 14 total pts. They have two one-point victories, one of those coming in their last game, which was 21-20 over Buffalo at home. The Zips were actually outgained pretty handily in that win, 459-372, and finished w/ nine fewer first downs. They won on a late TD pass (4:46 remaining), which capped a 91-yard drive. It was a similar story in a one-point win at Western Michigan where the Zips were outgained by more than a 2:1 margin yet came away ahead 14-13 in a game that had to be pushed back a day due to inclement weather. I'm just not sure how much longer "lady luck" can continue to ride on this team's shoulder. Again, I point to the fact they were blown out by Toledo, two weeks ago on the road, 48-21 w/ the defense allowing over 600 total yds. Despite the 4-1 conference record, Akron is actually being outgained by 120 YPG by its MAC opponents! They average just 17.2 PPG on the road. 

Miami lost last Tuesday to rival Ohio, 45-28, though it was basically even in total yardage (Miami actually finished ahead, 448-443). The loss dropped the RedHawks to 2-3 SU in league play, but they are actually outgaining MAC foes by about 50 YPG, essentially making them the opposite of Akron this year. While all three wins this year have been by double digits, four of Miami's six losses have come by eight points or fewer. This game strikes me as time for a "reversal of respective fortunes" and Miami really needs this game if they are to become bowl eligible. They should also be extra motivated by a four-year losing streak to the Zips (lost 35-13 LY), their longest losing skid in the history of the rivalry! I'm not too concerned by the fact Miami may again have to go w/ backup QB Billy Bahl as they have one of the top WR in the country in James Gardner (20.1 yards per reception) and are going against the conference's worst passing defense. The RedHawks also rank 15th nationally in time of possession, so expect them to play "keep away" tonight en route to a win and cover. 8* Miami OH

10* Green Bay (8:30 ET): The Packers have had two full weeks to prepare to play an opponent w/o Aaron Rodgers, who in all likelihood will not be back this season (even if the team somehow manages to make the playoffs?). I though Brett Hundley played admirably two weeks ago against the Saints, a game here at home that the Pack lost 26-17. But it was close, within one score in fact, until New Orleans scored a late TD. GB's opponent this week is Detroit, who hasn't been as lucky this season as they were last, which if you follow my writing, won't come as any shock. The Lions were one of several "fraudulent" playoff teams from a year ago as their NIINE fourth quarter comebacks were a league record. They too are off a bye after losing three straight. With two teams on losing streaks, something has to give here and I believe Hundley can play well enough to lead his team to victory.

Needless to say, no one would have anticipated GB being a home dog for this matchup. But the Rodgers' injury changed everything. Hundley threw for only 79 yards last week and under his direction, the offense has scored only 27 pts in two games w/ less than 500 total yards. But Detroit's defense may be the elixir they are looking for. They've allowed two 300+ yard passing days in the L3 games and in between gave up nearly 200 yds rushing to New Orleans. So, as bleak as things may look in Green Bay right now, there is hope. I think it would be wrong to simply write them off the rest of the way. There has been only one previous instance of them being a home dog the L3 seasons and they won the game outright. 

Detroit's offense has its own issues right now. They failed to score even one touchdown in the 20-15 loss to Pittsburgh two weeks ago (five field goals) despite five trips into the red zone. They now rank 28th in red zone efficiency. They cannot run the ball as only one time in seven games have they gone over 100 yards. They are averaging 82 rush YPG, which shockingly is only fifth worst. This is not a team I would trust in the road favorite role and I still think more regression is set to come after overachieving so dramatically last year. 10* Green Bay

10* Seattle (4:05 ET): This will be the second week in a row that my top NFL play for the week involves the Seahawks. Last week, I had the Over in their game w/ Houston, which turned into a wild 41-38 for them (best game in NFL this year?). While Russell Wilson and company needed almost the full 60 minutes to achieve victory, I was holding a winning ticket a lot earlier than that as the Over hit late in the third quarter. The rest of the league can now sleep easier knowing that the Seahawks will be the last team to face Texans QB DeShaun Watson as the sensational rookie tore his ACL in practice this week and is done for the year (terrible for the league). This week's opponent is Washington, who is injury-riddled and coming off a bad 33-19 loss (at home) to the division rival Cowboys. 

Despite the somewhat "conventional" handicapping wisdom that says to take a team off a bad loss, I just don't think the spread is nearly high enough here to endorse the Redskins. In fact, my own power rankings say Seattle is the one being undervalued by about a field goal. After all, this is a team that's won 16 of its last 20 home games. Washington is a team looking to pick up the pieces following B2B NFC East losses. Last week, the offense gained less than 300 total yards against a Dallas defense that quite frankly isn't all that good. Now they turn around and face Seattle, who is allowing only 18.9 points per game, good for seventh in the league and keep in mind that number was even lower before last week. The Redskins are going to have to figure out a way to move the ball w/o TE Jordan Reed, who is one of 13 players currently listed on the injury report. I don't see that happening. 

Meanwhile, Seattle had no issues moving the ball last week as QB Wilson threw for 446 yards in a very impressive display. With Philadelphia having the best record and both Minnesota and New Orleans surprising, I don't feel that enough people are paying attention to the Pacific Northwest right now as this is the one NFC division winner from last year likely to repeat. The team's lone weak spot, the offensive line, was addressed at the trade deadline as Duane Brown was brought in from Houston. Defensively, the Seahawks should look a lot better this week now that they're not facing Watson. Seattle is not a place where you want to show up playing poorly and banged up and sadly for Washington, they currently fit both of those parameters. 10* Seattle

8* Atlanta (1:00 ET): There's been a change in favorite for this NFC South matchup w/ the Falcons now in the role of chalk. Though I'm on them and the play certainly still stands, I have to admit that even I was taken a bit aback by the line move. However, perhaps it has something to do w/ the Panthers' strange decision to trade away their #1 wide receiver and close friend of QB Cam Netwon, Kelvin Benjamin. It's not as if Carolina had any kind of depth at that position plus they struggle to run the ball as well. The Panthers defense has really carried the team this year. There have been four games this year when the Panthers have been held to 17 pts or less and they've actually won two of them.

Now, you may be thinking that this is not the greatest spot for Atlanta. It is their third consecutive road game and last week they struggled just to get by the Jets (they did cover for me). But also be aware that Carolina has yet to have its bye, so this is a ninth straight game for them w/ no off-weeks. They too are off B2B road games, one win and one loss, and both were 17-3 finals. The loss was very hard-luck as they held Chicago to only five first downs, but gave up a pair of defensive scores. Last week saw them turn the tables on a struggling Tampa Bay team whose QB was not 100 percent. This week sees them playing an offense that was #1 in the league by a mile last season. Granted, Matt Ryan and company have fallen off somewhat in 2017, but there's still plenty to like there. With Carolina's defense, it's worth noting that the four opponents they've held in check would all qualify as having "bad offenses" (SF, Buf, Chi, TB). Their other four opponents - New Orleans, New England, Detroit and Philadelphia - all managed at least 24 points against them.

Conditions were not favorable (rained) for the Falcons LW vs. the Jets, but the weather should be more cooperative here. QB Ryan fumbled three times last week, yet still completed 18 passes for 246 yards and even more promising was the run game going for 140 yards w/ Tevin Campbell also being a receiving threat out of the backfield. Atlanta has beaten Carolina three straight times and I just don't see the home team having enough offense to end that streak come Sunday. 8* Atlanta

8* NY Giants (1:00 ET): Suffice to say, back when the NFL schedule was released, no one could have envisioned a scenario where the Rams would be favored in MetLife Stadium. Yet, here we are as one of the league's biggest surprises takes on arguably it's biggest disappointment. I was bearish on these Giants coming into the season, noting last year's team that finished 11-5 SU was extremely fortunate considering that they only outscored their opposition by 26 points (over the course of the full season). They were 8-3 SU in one-score games and received a huge boost from a defense that jumped from being one of the worst units in the league to one of the best. Now that the defense has regressed and the offense still stinks, you have a 1-6 team coming out of its bye week.

The Rams are also off a bye. They were one of the league's very worst teams a year ago, but have started 5-2 SU for 1st year HC Sean McVay, who has done wonders for his second-year QB Jared Goff. It is the Rams' offense making a quantum leap forward being most responsible for the jump up in the standings. Funny, because most thought that if this team was to improve, it would be Wade Phillips' defense leading the charge (admittedly, that side of the ball has been strong in 2 of the past 3 games). But like we saw Thursday w/ Buffalo, the market is bound to catch up to some of these early season surprises and like the Bills, the Rams are favored on the road here. That has happened one time before this season and LA was infamously "back-doored" on a Thursday night by the 49ers. I just wouldn't feel comfortable yet laying points w/ the Rams on the road. 

Since the final week of the 2010 season (yes, 2010!), the Rams have been a road favorite of more than three points only THREE times. They have not only failed to cover all three times, but also lost all three games outright. The most recent instance was 2015 at San Francisco. This is also the dreaded 1 PM (ET) start for a West Coast team and it comes on a weekend where Daylight Savings Time ends, so the Rams' body clocks may be far from normal. I get that the Giants have looked lifeless and are missing key personnel (WR position really depleted). The suspension of Janoris Jenkins certainly does not help, but the bottom line is the G-men have had the lead in three games this season. We're set to see better results from them, I believe. Take the points. 8* NY Giants

10* Stanford (3:30 ET): Despite already having two losses on its resume, Stanford still has plenty to play for, both individually and collectively. From an individual perspective, RB Bryce Love figures to be getting an invite to New York for the Heisman Trophy presentation next month. Whether or not he wins it depends on him getting healthy and how well he plays moving forward. As far as the team is concerned, they find themselves in the role of spoiler w/ home games left against both Washington (next Friday) and Notre Dame (regular season finale). Both of those teams will be looking to make the CFP. Of course, the Pac 12 Championship is still on the table for the Cardinal, who got a major scare last week in Corvallis, only beating Oregon State by a score of 15-14 (were w/o Love). There's been some question as to whether Love is going to play here, but I'm banking that he will and thus Stanford is an excellent play plus the points.

Washington State is another team that probably feels it can still win the Pac 12 Championship. They too have Washington left on the schedule, though this year's Apple Cup will be waged in Seattle. (Wazzu will be off a bye). But before we can even begin to discuss the regular season finale, we need to talk about the way the Cougars have been trending. It's been two losses in the last three games for Wazzu, one being an ugly one (37-3 at Cal), then LW's debacle at Arizona (58-37). I concede to you that both of those losses ocurred on the road. But I still never took this team seriously as a legit threat to win the conference and in fact, they hardly ever cracked my Top 25, even when they were still unbeaten. Last week saw QB Luke Falk pulled, yet Mike Leake still called 84 pass plays! 

This is a big revenge game for Stanford, which lost 42-16 (at home!) LY to Wazzu. I'm sure the coaching staff and players have not forgotten. Love's health is certainly a big deal, and something I'll be monitoring throughout the week. But the bottom line here is that you have to love a player averaging more than 10 yards per carry going up against a defense that just surrendered over 300 yards rushing last week. Weather should also be a factor Saturday afternoon in Pullman. Though Stanford is a California team, they certainly are not the kind of wide-open attack that comes to mind when we think Pac 12 offenses. If the reports are true and the weather is freezing and rainy, that's an edge for the Cardinal as Wazzu's passing attack will undoubtedly be negatively affected (and they can't run the ball). Stanford is actually averaging more points per game than Wazzu this year, which is shocking, and they're the better team getting points. 10* Stanford

8* Notre Dame (3:30 ET): Are the Fighting Irish ... (gasp!) underrated? It sure seems so. Well, not by the pollsters, who placed them #3 in the initial CFP rankings. But bettors have certainly been able to cash in on this team w/ great frequency as they roll into Saturday on a six-game ATS win streak. The last two weeks have seen them destroy both USC and NC State, teams that I consider to be among the top 25 in the country. Both those games took place here in South Bend w/ the Irish winning by a combined 84-28 margin. Up next is a Wake Forest team you may hear labeled as being "dangerous," but the bottom line is that the Demon Deacons are not as good as either of ND's last two opponents and coming off an upset (of Louisville), I think they'll be the ones primed for a letdown in this spot. Lay the points. 

Notre Dame has the "honor" of being called the "best 1-loss team in America." Since losing to #1 Georgia by a single point here at home, back in Week 2, no other team has come within 20 points of them. I absolutely love the way this offense runs the ball as we've now seen four consecutive games w/ at least 318 yards over land, thanks in large part to an experienced line. That's very bad news for a Wake Forest defense which can be had. Two weeks ago, they allowed 427 rushing yards to Georgia Tech and for the season they are giving up 184 rush yards per game. Last week against Louisville, the Wake offense gave up well over 500 total yards and still won, something they will assuredly NOT be able to do here. 

On the other side of the ball, Notre Dame has just as big an advantage. It starts w/ their DC, Mike Elko, having previously served as the Wake Forest DC the previous three seasons. So Elko knows the Demon Deacons' offense. Even better is that he won't have to worry about defending their top WR, Greg Dortch, who is now out for the year due to an abdominal injury. Dortch had 10 catches for 167 yds last week vs. L'ville w/ four touchdowns, so he'll clearly be missed. So too will starting RB Cade Carney. I also forgot to mention Wake will be w/o a starting safety, Jessie Bates, for this game. I think people are just looking at the spot for Notre Dame, who is off B2B beatdowns of Top 25 opponents w/ Miami on deck, and thinking letdown. But it's Wake Forest that's off an upset here and they're down several key players, including their best one on offense. I just can't see them keeping pace with the ND offense, on the road. 8* Notre Dame

8* Wisconsin (12:00 ET): I think it's fair to ask what Indiana has left in the tank. The last three weeks have to have taken a toll as we've seen them come up brutally short in losses to Michigan and Michigan State. Then, last week they lost outright at Maryland, giving up 42 points in the process. They did outgain the Terps, 483-345, and have nearly twice as many first downs. They even jumped out to an early 14-0 lead. But none of that mattered as QB Peyton Ramsey got hurt and Maryland got a big play early in the 2Q where they returned a blocked punt for a TD. Normally, this is situation where I'd at least consider the home dog that seems "due," but I have major concerns over the Hoosiers' state of mind right now as even becoming bowl eligible will be a chore.

Wisconsin comes to Bloomington probably feeling a bit disrespected. I hate when teams play that card. But in the case of the Badgers, they are one of three Power 5 teams to be unbeaten, yet they are also ranked only 9th in the initial CFP rankings. (Interestingly, Miami is #10, but Alabama is #2). Winning out would certainly have to land the Badgers in the top four though, right? Yes, we can poke fun at their schedule thus far. But if they beat both Michigan and Ohio State, they'll be in. As for this game, they come in off a lackluster 24-10 win at Illinois where the edge in total yards was very slight. That said, they were up 24-3 for most of the fourth quarter before conceding a touchdown in the final minute. It was the third straight game that the Badgers' defense allowed 13 pts or less.

The IU QB situation being what it is, I see them struggling to score points Saturday afternoon whether it's Ramsey or Richard Laglow starting. Wisconsin is allowing only 12.9 points per game for the season and Northwestern is the only team to top 17 against them. The Badgers and Hoosiers haven't played since 2013, which is probably just fine from the IU perspective as they've dropped nine in a row to the team from Madison and done so by an average of 37 PPG! I realize that Badgers' bellcow Jonathan Taylor is currently listed as questionable for this game, but with or without him, I see the offense being able to move the ball against a suspect Indiana defense which has three times permitted 42 points or more. 8* Wisconsin

10* Temple (8:00 ET): The AAC is having another strong year w/ UCF threatening to be this year's "Group of Five" team in a New Year's Six Bowl Game. But both Navy and Temple, particularly the latter, are teams that have taken respective steps back in spite of the conference's overall ascension. These two met in LY's AAC Championship Game w/ the Owls winning big, 34-10 as 2-pt dogs in Annapolis. With the HC of that team, Matt Rhule, having departed for Baylor though, there was no way the Owls were going to repeat last year's 10-4 SU (and 12-2 ATS!) records. Sure enough, they come into this week at 3-5 SU and ATS. As for Navy, they started 5-0 SU, but have since dropped B2B games. I like the way Temple matches up here (familiar w/ triple option!) and will take them as a home dog. 

Now it's essentially a entirely different coaching staff, not to mention front seven, for Temple here compared to LY's Conference Championship Game. But still, they catch a break in having additional time to prepare for this matchup, not that they needed it though as they faced Army in their last game! The Owls did allow 248 rush yards in that 31-28 loss, but that was on 50 carries. So they defended the triple option relatively well. I should also mention how three of Temple's four losses this year have been by seven points or less. Like Navy, they're far better suited as underdogs. They covered as seven-point dogs against Army, a game which went to overtime and the Owls probably should have won in regulation. Not only did they outgain the Black Knights 506-389, but they had a seven-point lead w/ 90 seconds left in regulation, only to allow the typically anemic Army passing attack to carve them up! It was a similar story two weeks ago vs. UConn where Temple held almost a 2:1 edge in total yards (28-15 in first downs), but lost by four. 

Navy's two losses this year came against the teams most likely to represent the AAC in this year's Conference Champ Game, Memphis and UCF. The loss to UCF saw QB Zach Abbey leave in the third quarter due to a concussion and the Midshipmen's 17-game home regular season win streak come to an end. Of course, they were also handled LY here in Annapolis by this Owls' defense, getting held to a season-low in total yardage. Abbey's health is certainly something to monitor here, though the coaching staff has said he will play. Still, you have to wonder about performance after being knocked out. Both of these teams have been outstanding ATS in recent years, but I gravitate towards the fact Temple is 12-3 ATS the L15 times it has gotten points. 10* Temple

10* Western Michigan (7:05 ET): First off, the reason for the line dropping here is that WMU QB Jon Wassink is out w/ a broken collarbone. He sustained the injury in the Broncos' 20-17 OT win at rival Eastern Michigan 11 days ago and is done for the regular season. As deflating as that can be for a team, I still favor WMU by a far more significant margin than the oddsmakers are, against this latest "directional" opponent. A reason for Central Michigan getting some additional respect here in this spot is that they are coming off a 56-9 win. But I wouldn't read too much into that as the opponet was Ball State, who is not just one of the worst MAC teams, but also among the very worst teams in the entire country. I plan on taking advantage of this deflated line. You should too! 

It certainly didn't take long this season for Western Michigan to exceed their number of losses from LY, but that was to be expected after a "dream" 13-1 campaign landed former HC PJ Fleck the job at Minnesota. There was simply no way this year's team was going to match what the 2016 group did. But after opening w/ losses against USC and Michigan State (no shame there), the Broncos have played well, winning five of their last six. Their one loss came against Akron in a rescheduled affair that had to be played a day later (on a Sunday) due to flooding. I'd say that game certainly qualifies as "extraordinary circumstances." Yes, WMU has won two overtime games so far, one of them a record-setting 7 OT affair w/ Buffalo (71-68). But they're still outscoring MAC foes by two touchdowns per game while outgaining them by 78 YPG. 

Now, the Wassink injury does change things a bit. 1st year HC Tim Lester will be turning the reigns over to a freshman, Reece Goddard, who has thrown all of three passes in his college career. But having the additional time to prepare Goddard for his 1st start is huge, at least in my estimation. Central Michigan's defense is by no means great as they'd given up at least 27 points in six of their first seven contests. I expect Western Michigan to still move the ball here, thanks to RB Jarvoin Franklin, who has become his school's all-time leading rusher following three consecutive 100+ yard games. Also, it's worth noting that Goddard did led the GW drive to beat Eastern Michigan. Even though that was on a short field, he'd previously led an 11-play, 61-yard drive near the end of regulation that resulted in a missed FG. Central Michigan has lost three straight times to WMU and is only 3-7 ATS when off a MAC win. 10* Western Michigan

8* Ohio (8:00 ET): Miami-Ohio is actually one of the MAC's top rivalries. Known as "The Battle of the Bricks," Ohio has won 10 of the previous 11 matchups and LY's 17-7 victory in Oxford was the tiebreaker that allowed Frank Solich's Bobcats advancing to the Conference Championship Game. (Both teams went 6-2 SU in conference play). Coming into this year's meeting, Ohio finds itself w/ the top overall record among MAC East teams (6-2), but they're one-half game back of Akron for the division lead. Miami has been one of the bigger disappointments in the country as they're only 3-5 SU after ending LY on a six-game win streak (excluding bowl). The RedHawks have been favored in almost all of their games (w/ Notre Dame being the only exception), but here they look to be "up against it" especially if QB Gus Ragland is again unable to play. Lay the points. 

Ohio lost an early season TV game, at Purdue, 44-21. They were actually just a short dog in that game, despite being the road team against a Big 10 opponent. Three consecutive victories followed, but then the Bobcats were upset at Central Michigan, losing 26-20 as 10-pt chalk. But now, they can again make it three straight wins following a loss as the L2 games have brought B2B 48-point efforts, including an annihilation of Kent State two Saturdays ago, 48-3. The OU defense allowed only 166 total yards in that game. The Bobcats have covered the spread in all six wins this season and gone 5-1 SU/ATS as favorites. Over the L3 seasons, they've won 17 of the 22 games in which they've been favored.

The last two years have seen the Miami offense manage a total of only 10 points against this Ohio defense. If they again have to go w/out Ragland, I don't like the underdogs chances here. But even w/ their starting QB, there's no guarantee of improved play. The team is only 2-4 SU/ATS w/ Ragland as the starter this year and that includes an awful home loss to Bowling Green, who hasn't beaten anybody else this year. I get that it's desperation time for the RedHawks, who must win three of their final four games just to be bowl eligible. But they're up against the best team in their division here, possibly w/o their starting QB, and Ohio is outscoring opponents by more than four touchdowns per game here in Athens. I'm not buying any kind of defensive resurgence for Miami here, even though they've allowed just 31 pts total the L2 games. They were fortunate to be +2 in turnover differential in the 24-14 win over Buffalo 10 days ago. It's not as if the RedHawks' schedule has been all that challenging to this point, so the fact that they're 3-6 SU is pretty ominous, especially since Ohio is the best team they will have faced since the Notre Dame game. 8* Ohio

10* Denver (8:30 ET): Was it only two weeks ago that we all considered Kansas City the best team in football? The Chiefs were unbeaten at 5-0, not only straight up, but against the spread as well. They'd won 27 of 31 regular season contests and with that Week 1 upset of the Patriots, were certainly deserving of all accolades. But two losses later and now they're looking to snap their first losing skid since a 1-5 SU start in 2015. Division rival Denver is another team whose last two weeks have not gone well. They went into their (early) bye week at 3-1, but suffered a shocking Sunday night loss to the Giants, then were shutout by the Chargers last week. So, it's two desperate teams here and with it being a division rivalry, I expect a close game. Thus, taking the points is a "no brainer." 

Kansas City's losses have come to Pittsburgh and Oakland. They were actually dominated far more than the final score (19-13) indicated against the Steelers as they were outgained 439-251 and had 11 fewer first downs. The Raiders game, on a Thursday night, saw the defense again shredded to the tune of 505 yards and 32 first downs. Now Denver's offense isn't exactly prolific. They've been held to 16 pts or fewer four straight weeks. But in that shocking loss to the Giants two weeks ago, the offense did gain 412 total yards. The problem is that they turned it over three times there and then did the same again last week. A -6 TO margin in a two-week span will leave most teams at 0-2. One thing that this Broncos offense should do is lean on running the ball. Kansas City's defense is only 28th at stopping the run.

Denver, believe it or not, has outgained all six of its opponents this season! That astounding fact has a lot to do w/ their league-leading defense, which is permitting an average of just 258.5 yards per game. That unit should certainly be able to keep them in this one. Note that while the Broncos are outgaining foes by roughly 80 YPG, the Chiefs have actually been outgained this season and are giving up nearly 400 YPG! Denver, like KC, has been an underdog in only one game all year. That was Week 2 vs. Dallas and they blew the Cowboys out 42-17. As an underdog, the Broncos are not just 9-4-1 ATS the L3 seasons, but also 9-5 straight up. They've also won three straight Monday night games as well. With this being the middle game of a three-game road trip, and Philadelphia on deck, you have to figure it will be the Broncos' best effort here. They are also 5-1 SU, 4-1-1 ATS off a division loss. 10* Denver

8* Pittsburgh (8:25 ET): Those who follow me, know that road favorites simply are "not my thing." At least, usually. But I'll make a big exception here for a matchup where I believe the road chalk to be significantly better than the home dog and the line is basically insignifcant. Pittsburgh is a rather "quiet" 5-2 (SU) right now, but actually ranks #1 in DVOA over at FootballOutsiders, a ranking which carries a lot of weight (in my opinion). As for Detroit, this is a team whose record I haven't respected for the last two seasons. Last year's 9-7 SU finish was pretty phony based on them not beating a single playoff team along the way and needing a record EIGHT fourth quarter comebacks to get there. I didn't think they had a chance to match LY's record this year, so at 3-3 SU currently, don't be surprised if they start losing more than they win the rest of the way. I'll lay the short number here.

Yes, the Lions are coming off a bye, but underdogs off a bye week tend to not perform as well as favorites. That's confirmed by a poor effort last week from Cincinnati, who faced (you guessed it!) the Steelers. Coming off a huge road win over Kansas City (handed Chiefs their 1st loss of the season), the Black & Gold beat down their division rival, winning 29-14 w/ a rather commanding 420-179 edge in total yardage. Having to constantly settle for field goals is what kept that game (and my Over bet!) more interesting than it should have been. But now they get to face a Lions team that gave up 52 pts in its last game, two weeks ago at New Orleans. To bring things "full circle" here, underdogs coming off a bye week are just 47% ATS dating back to '03. 

A reason for the Steelers' slow start offensively was that RB Le'Veon Bell was just getting back into "game shape" after holding out all preseason. But Bell has posted B2B monster games w/ 179 and 134 yards against the Chiefs and Bengals respectively. Conversely, the Lions have no run game as they average just 84 YPG over land, which ranks 26th. Pittsburgh's defense is also quietly playing very well as it is giving up only 16.6 PPG for the year, which is third fewest in the league. Additionally, they rank 2nd in total defense (yardage allowed). Keep in mind that the scoring average would be even lower were it not for TWO pick-six's returned against them in the Jacksonville game. Detroit's offense isn't averaging 300 YPG right now, an ominous sign, while Pittsburgh is outgaining its opponents by slightly more than 100 YPG, which is #1 in the entire league. 8* Pittsburgh

8* Atlanta (1:00 ET): Needless to say, NO ONE expected these two teams to be sporting near-identical records entering this Week 8 matchup. Atlanta, who infamously blew a 28-3 lead in LY's Super Bowl, had aspirations of returning to that big game this year. As for the Jets, it was widely perceived that they were tanking in 2017 and would end up w/ the league's worst record. Surprise, surprise though. Both have the same number of wins (3) right now, though the Jets have played one more game. It's getting to be desperation time for the Falcons, who are in a tough division (NFC South) and can't afford to be dropping many more games if they want to even make the playoffs. Least of all this one, against a team that should not be able to compete w/ them offensively. I rarely play road favorites, but will make an exception here.

Now that Falcons offense, which led the league by a mile last year, has certainly fallen off in the first half of this season. Some of that has to do w/ the departure of OC Kyle Shanahan. But Shanahan taking his playbook to San Francisco can't solely explain Matt Ryan and company scoring all of seven points the last six quarters w/ that lone TD coming in garbage time last Sunday night vs. the Patriots. Being that they were embarrassed (again) on national TV last week, my guess is that Falcons' stock has reached its nadir & it's now time to "buy low." I should also mention that their previous two losses (also to AFC East teams), were both highly misleading. They outgained Miami 339-289, but inexplicably blew a 17-0 halftime lead at home. The week before, also at home, they outgained Buffalo 389-281. However, they were undone by a -3 turnover margin, most notably a fumble return for a touchdown. 

So while Atlanta is 3-3, they are still outgaining foes by 47.3 YPG and averaging a healthy 6.4 yards per play. To put that in proper perspective, the 3-4 Jets are -45.9 YPG. They are also off B2B crushing defeats against AFC East (their division) foes. First, they left New England feeling ripped off after a bad call denied them a chance to take New England to overtime (lost 24-17). Then last week, they blew a 2 TD lead at Miami, losing in overtime. Like we saw w/ San Francisco last week, it's difficult for a bad team to consistently "get off the mat" after suffering a series of close losses. I don't see the Jets winning here and staying within the number for a third straight time while losing seems unlikely as well. If you're looking for a specific area where the Falcons can exploit the Jets, it could be running the ball as this offense is still averaging a healthy 4.9 yards per carry. They just need to run it more often (only 19 carries LW due to being behind) in order to be more effective and set up the passing game. 8* Atlanta

8* Cleveland (9:30 AM ET): We all know the Browns are bad (just 1 win in the L2 seasons), but what's particularly jaw-dropping in their run of futility under HC Hue Jackson is that they've covered the Vegas number only five times in 23 games! That includes last week, where they took the Tennessee Titans to overtime, but (of course) lost 12-9 as 5.5-point home underdogs. Meanwhile, Minnesota is starting to emerge as one of the league's most pleasant surprises. They've lost their starting QB, RB and WR1, yet still have somehow found a way to go 5-2 SU and take the lead in the NFC North. As I said last week, they stand to be the biggest beneficiary of the Aaron Rodgers injury (out for year?) in Green Bay. But something else I said last week was that I can't believe the respect the Vikings are now getting in light of all their injuries. They got over me last week (playing at home against Baltimore), but I don't like them laying this many points away from home, even if it is London and against the Browns. Hold your nose and take the points.

Now, I'm fully aware that none of the three previous London games have been close this year. The favorite has delivered a lopsided shutout in each of the last two (Rams 33-0 last week) while Jacksonville was a 44-7 winner over Baltimore, as a small dog, in the other. Clearly, that precdent isn't good for Cleveland, but it is worth noting that despite an 0-7 SU record, the Browns have outgained their opposition this year! Their defense ranks in the Top 10 in yards allowed (304.7) and can keep them in games, especially when facing an offense as depleted as Minnesota's is right now. The Vikings come in averaging only 20.9 PPG for the year and that number drops to 14.5 away from home.

Prior to last week's win and cover over Baltimore (24-16, -5), Vikings QB Case Keenum was 1-7 ATS all-time as a favorite w/ SIX outright losses, including one at home to Detroit earlier this year. With Keenum under center, RB Dalvin Cook out for the year and WR Stefon Diggs still battling a groin injury, I just can't endorse this team in this price range. Now Cleveland is admittedly a mess and will be going back to rookie QB DeShone Kizer here as HC Jackson grows more and more desperate by the week. Also, Kizer won't have Joe Thomas protecting him anymore as Thomas is done for the year w/ a triceps injury. (Thomas had NEVER missed a snap in his career before last week!). That all being said, the Vikings aren't going to be favored by more in any game this season, not even at home, and hadn't even been asked to lay more than a field goal this year prior to last week. 8* Cleveland

8* Washington (3:30 ET): This is most definitely a case of "wrong place, wrong time" for UCLA as #12 Washington is not only coming off its bye, but also an embarrassing loss (to Arizona State) the week prior. Coming into the season, I pegged the Bruins as one of the most likely improved teams in the entire country, but it's become pretty clear to me that HC Jim Mora already has "one foot out the door" in Westwood as does QB Josh Rosen, who would be the #1 overall pick in the NFL Draft if he elected to come out. As for Washington, they can no longer endure any more "slip ups" after the disaster that happened at Arizona State two weeks ago. The Huskies lost that game, 13-7, not even coming close to scoring enough points to cover the 17.5-pt spread. This is an offense averaging 37.9 PPG for the year and they are set to go up against a UCLA defense which is allowing nearly 500 yards per game! Lay the points. 

UCLA hasn't been good on the road either and quite frankly that's putting things mildly. They're 0-3 SU and ATS away from the Rose Bowl and in those losses to Memphis, Stanford and Arizona, they've given up an average of 51 points per game. Getting back to the defensive woes, that unit has now surrendered 44 or more points four times. Remember that they are one miracle comeback (against Texas A&M) away from being 2-5 SU right now. The Bruins are off a win here, but it came against an Oregon team w/ a backup QB that just can't do much offensively right now. It's not like the Bruins' road woes are anything new either; dating back to last season, they've dropped seven consecutive road games, the last five all coming by double digits. Their last Pac 12 road win came in 2015. 

Washington only managing seven points against Arizona State was a real head-scratcher that I can't begin to figure out. All I can say is that Tempe is a place no Huskies team has won since 1999, so it must be something in the air there. For the reasons laid out above, I do not see them having much trouble moving the ball or putting it in the end zone here. On the defensive side of the ball, HC Chris Peterson has some injuries to deal with, but the Huskies are allowing an average of only 10.6 PPG this year and still only gave up 13 in the loss to Arizona State despite losing CB Jordan Miller in the game. Yes, Rosen will be the best QB they face all year, but I think this stop unit will be up to the task, especially with them likely "playing from ahead" for the duration of the contest. UCLA has won just one of its last nine games as an underdog and is 1-7 ATS when coming off a Pac 12 win the L3 seasons. 8* Washington

10* Ohio State (3:30 ET): While this is technically a "revenge game" for the Buckeyes, who lost 24-21 (as 19-point favorites!) in State College last year, one could make the argument that it is the Nittany Lions that come into this year's meeting w/ more of a legitimate gripe as they were the one left out of LY's playoff while Ohio State made it (despite the H2H result) only to get promptly smashed by eventual Nat'l Champ Clemson. So, to me, the revenge factor may be overstated here. However, situationally, is where I find Ohio State to have a the big edge in this Big 10 showdown. They were off last week while Penn State was busy winning a primetime showdown w/ Michigan. That win over Michigan came a lot easier than most (myself included) expected, which I feel has caused a bit of an overreaction by the marketplace. Yes, Penn State is the unbeaten team here, but I still actually have OSU rated higher in my own personal power rankings. I was hoping to get the Buckeyes laying less than a touchdown at the Horseshoe on Saturday and the oddsmakers have granted my wish!

Ohio State HC Urban Meyer is an incredible 20-1 SU in his coaching career off a bye w/ five of those victories coming against ranked foes. Keep in mind that it was Penn State off a bye last week against Michigan, so the bye week (especially this time of year) definitely can play a huge role. And yes, Meyer is also 24-10-1 ATS in his career in revenge spots including 10-0 straight up his L10 w/ the average margin of victory coming by an impressive 13 points per game. Let us not forget either that OSU led Penn State last year 12-0, but lost on a blocked FG return for touchdown. The Nittany Lions weren't even ranked at the time! The win has jumpstarted an incredible run where they've lost only one time (Rose Bowl vs. USC) and they're an utterly insane 16-1 ATS their last 17 games. That lone non-cover was the Iowa game earlier this year where they needed a last second TD, but even then they had a 579-273 edge in total yards. But isn't a 16-1 ATS run getting close to a "tipping point" where we'll start to see James Franklin's team start to give some back? I think so.

Earlier I mentioned that I still have OSU rated higher in my own power rankings, so I'm not surprised by the line here - at all - and as I alluded to, it should probably be north of a touchdown. Most will disagree w/ me, which is where the (rare) value on the Buckeyes comes into play. Since getting beaten by Oklahoma in the second game of the season, OSU has rolled to five consecutive wins by an average of 42 points per game. QB JT Barrett has certainly gotten back on track w/ a 21-1 TD-INT ratio. He has guided the Buckeyes' offense to four straight games of 54+ points and 500+ total yards. OSU also has a defense to match Penn State's and of course the homefield advantage to boot. 10* Ohio State

8* North Carolina (12:00 ET): Let's just go-ahead and restart "The U is back!" narrative as the 'Canes have emerged as a "darkhorse" playoff contender simply by virtue of still being unbeaten in late October. But as you know, not all unbeatens are created equal and in this case, Miami is simply not at the level of an Alabama or Penn State, or even several one-loss teams (such as Ohio State or Clemson) for that matter. But tip your cap to the job Mark Richt is doing down in Coral Gables as there's a decent chance his Hurricanes will finish the regular season unbeaten thanks to avoiding Clemson, Louisville and NC State entirely, while drawing both Va Tech and Notre Dame at home. This week's game likely will NOT threaten their unblemished won-loss record, but it is a tricky spot as it comes right before those B2B home dates w/ Va Tech and Notre Dame. Can we say look ahead?

While Miami is exceeding expectations in year two under Richt, North Carolina has clearly fallen off a cliff for Larry Fedora in 2017. After winning 11 and 8 games respectively the last two seasons, the Tar Heels returned very little of the offense that drove last year's team (most notable loss was QB Mitchell Trubisky) and the result has been a rather ugly 1-7 SU and ATS start w/ the lone win and cover coming at Old Dominion's expense. The nadir of the season may have been last week as they ran into a rested Va Tech team in Blacksburg and got beat 59-7. But that creates some real value on the Tar Heels, who are back home, this week. Injuries are another reason UNC has struggled this year. But w/ little left to play for, I assume they'll treat this Homecoming affair like a bowl game and not roll over for their unbeaten visitor. 

Miami's unbeaten record is not w/o some very close calls, in fact, their previous three wins have been by a total of 13 points! Last week, they outlasted Syracuse 27-19 (were -18) down in Hard Rock Stadium where they obviously benefited from four Orange turnovers. The week prior was a 25-24 win over Georgia Tech on a last second FG, a game they trailed almost the whole way. Preceding that was another last second win, against Florida State. Following so many close calls and with two much bigger games on deck, it will be easy for "The U" to overlook this game and that could be mean trouble given that the visiting team is on a 5-12 SU run in the rivalry. Last year though, UNC won on the road, 20-13 as a six-point dog. The year before that, right here in Chapel Hill, the Hurricanes lost 59-21. I look for UNC to stay within a generous number. 8* North Carolina

8* Stanford (9:00 ET): Following disappointing B2B losses to USC and San Diego State, Stanford was just 1-2 SU on the season and in danger of becoming irrelevant. But this remains a Top 20 team in the country, at least in my opinion, and we've started to see what they are capable of w/ a four-game win streak here in Pac 12 play. Two Saturdays ago, the Cardinal took full advantage of Oregon being depleted and won in a 49-7 rout. Now they'll face the Ducks' "Civil War" rival, who is still winless against FBS competition this year and already made a coaching change. That would be Oregon State, the perennial dreg of the conference who has lost seven straight times to Stanford. I'm usually not one to lay a lot of points on the conference road, but I'll make an exception here. 

Over the course of its four-game win streak, Stanford has outscored its opponents (all of whom are stronger than Oregon State) by an average of nearly 20 PPG. Now that number is obviously skewed by what they did against Oregon, but note the only game during the win streak that was close was the one at Utah, who was rested when the Cardinal were not. Considering Oregon State is already allowing over 200 YPG on the ground this season (and given up 18 rushing TDs) and Stanford has the nation's leading rusher (Bryce Love), this looks to be a mismatch of epic proportions. Now I'm well aware Love is listed as a game-time decision here, but the notion of him and his 10.3 YPC average going against this Beavers' defense is too enticing too pass up. He already has NINE runs of 50+ yards this season and got to rest in the 2H vs. Oregon due to the lopsided nature of the contest. QB Keller Chryst also had his best game since the opener, completing 15 of 21 pass attempts, three of them for touchdowns. 

Love or not, another reason to like Stanford here is their defense facing an OSU offense that averages almost 50 fewer YPG rushing than Love does by his lonesome! Oregon State did play inspired in its last game, a 36-33 loss to Colorado (as 9.5-pt underdogs) here in Corvallis. But that came right after the surprising resignation of HC Gary Andersen. While interim HC Corey Hall has now had more than a full week to implement his own gameplan, he simply doesn't have a whole lot to work with here. The loss to Colorado marked the first time since beating FCS Portland State that the Beavers finished within 28 points of the opposition. They opened the year 0-5 ATS and are being outscored by 22.5 PPG. Whether it's Love's questionable status or something else, we're getting about nearly a full TD of value with this line on the Cardinal, at least according to my own power rankings. 8* Stanford

10* Philadelphia (8:30 ET): The Eagles have made a case that they are the best team in the NFC having started 5-1 (SU) including a nice road win over Carolina last Thursday. The extra prep time here is significant, giving them an advantage they probably didn't need to overcome division rival Washington, a team they defeated back in Week 1, 30-17 on the road. I was on the Eagles there and it's certainly worth noting that they closed as two-point road favorites for that season opening contest. That makes the spread for this rematch certainly look too low given the change in venue. I'll gladly lay the points as Washington struggled to get by a winless San Francisco team last week. 

This is Washington's second Monday night game in three weeks. The last one, against the Chiefs, ended w/ one of the worst beats in recent memory as what was a tie game in the final minute ended up 29-20 when the Chiefs scored a garbage defensive touchdown in the final seconds. Needless to say, I don't want to rehash that anymore given I was on the Redskins. Philadelphia's only loss this year was to the Chiefs, back in Week 2. While Washington probably deserved better against KC, they were thoroughly outgained by the Eagles back in Week 1, 356-264 and turned the ball over four times.

  The Redskins are missing two key pieces on defense coming into this rematch, Jonathen Allen on the line and Josh Norman in the secondary. That could mean plenty of trouble against an Eagles offense that is averaging a very healthy 6.1 yards per play its last three games. Philadelphia is also getting back its best offensive lineman, Lane Johnson. Washington also had to sign a new kicker this week after Dustin Hopkins was placed on IR. The Redskins are 0-4 SU and ATS their last four appearances on Monday Night Football. 10* Philadelphia

8* Baltimore (1:00 ET): Imagine this: Minnesota is playing w/o its starting QB, top RB (done for the year), top WR and possibly two starting offensive linemen, yet is favored prohibitively this week. That speaks volumes about the current state of the Ravens, who as noted last week, have the most players on injured reserve in the entire league. That caused me to play against Baltimore in Week 6 as they were laying a significant amt of points (at home) to a seemingly overmatched foe (Chicago). Sure enough, despite two non-offensive scores, they dropped the game outright (in overtime). Now though, the proverbial "shoe" is on the other foot. The Vikings stand to be the biggest beneficiaries of the Aaron Rodgers injury as not only were they the team facing the Packers last week (won 23-10), but they're in the same division and all of a sudden the NFC North doesn't look so tough.

It's funny that it was just one week ago that Minnesota appeared to be helpless, even at home, facing Rodgers and Green Bay. As noted above they were w/o their starting QB (Sam Bradford), RB (Dalvin Cook out for year) and top WR (Stefon Diggs). But, my, how things can change in an instant. Anthony Barr's (dirty?) hit on Rodgers broke the former MVP's collarbone and the Vikings would go on to pull the "upset" (were 3-pt home dogs), 23-10. The Pack were helpless w/o Rodgers, failing to score after halftime. For what it's worth, Minnesota only kicked three field goals (no TD's) in the second half. But they're feeling pretty good about the position that they are in at 4-2 straight up. This despite that Bradford, Cook and Diggs all being out again, plus there's a good chance that the left side of the O-line - guard Nick Easton and tackle Riley Reiff - will miss this game. Ask yourself, given the above information, does this sound like a team you'd want to lay points with? 

Baltimore has its own offensive issues right now, but there's a lot to like about the defense, especially since it looks like DT Brandon Williams is set to return. When the offense isn't turning the ball over and putting the defense in bad positions (like vs. Jacksonville), the Ravens typically don't give up many points. In each of the three wins, they've allowed 17 pts or fewer. I don't think they should be too scared by Vikings QB Case Keenum here. Remember that the first two games saw them force as many turnovers (10) as points allowed! Under John Harbaugh, this is a team that rarely gets blown out (I know they have twice this year) and they're a solid 2-1 ATS as underdogs this season. This figures to be a low-scoring game where you want to take the points. 8* Baltimore

8* Colorado (10:45 ET): It's "Pac 12 after dark" and neither of these teams come in playing as well as they'd hoped. Washington State is of course off a horrific 37-3 loss at Cal last Friday, a game which saw them turn the ball over SEVEN times and get dropped from the ranks of the unbeaten. Fact is, I was never really that high on Mike Leach's team anyway. Now the same could be said for Colorado coming into this year as I always viewed LY's run to the Conference Championship Game as a bit fraudulent. The Buffs were able to take advantage of a "down year" in the Pac 12 South and just about everyone had them regressing in 2017. Sure enough, seven games into the season and they've already equaled the number of regular season losses (3) from last year. They've even been a big disappointment at the betting window, covering just one time since a season-opening 17-3 win over in-state rival Colorado State. 

Disappointing as the season has been so far in Boulder, I see some pretty significant value here w/ the Buffs. As discussed in the analysis last week for plays against Michigan and Auburn, there always seems to be some value in targeting Top 25 teams off a SU loss as the majority of bettors are all too eager to call for the proverbial "bounce back." But in the case of Wazzu, I see not much reason to expect any kind of significant bounce back this week. While they did open the season 6-0 SU, that included close wins here in Pullman over Boise State (trailed by 21 in the fourth quarter and won in 3 OT's!) and USC (who was down three starting offensive lineman). The rest of the schedule has been quite soft to say the least and they got to play Oregon when the Ducks were really banged up. Last year in Boulder, the Cougars fell 38-24 to the Buffaloes as five-point underdogs. I know Colorado isn't as good this year, but I'm not sure I can get on board w/ the pretty massive swing we've seen w/ the line in less than 12 months time.

CU's last three games, two of them losses, have all been decided by four points or less. Yes, they did give up 33 points to an inspired Oregon State team (playing for interim HC) last week, but the defense still ranks fifth in the Pac 12 both against the pass and the run. Cal was able to hold Wazzu to just 365 total yards last week w/ an inferior defense. The only team to blow out Colorado thus far was Washington State's Apple Cup rival Washington, who is a much better team. It also should be noted that the Buffs have been favored in all but two of their games thus far, which partly explains some of the ATS struggles to this point. While they didn't cover at home against Washington, they did cover on the road vs. UCLA. Before last year, the visitor had taken four of the five previous meetings in this conference rivalry. CU is on a 9-4 ATS run as the road team while Wazzu is just 1-4 ATS the L3 seasons as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 pts. 8* Colorado

8* Baylor (8:00 ET): For most of the Big 12's existence, Baylor has been a bottom-feeder, not unlike Kansas. From the birth of the conference until 2007, they were an awful 11-85 SU vs. league opponents. But then came Art Briles and Robert Griffin III and from 2010-15, the program experienced virtually unprecedented success including FOUR 10+ win seasons. But that regime ended last year in utter disgrace due to a variety of severe misdeeds by players and coaches alike. Thus, Matt Rhule (came over from Temple) was stepping into a rather unfortunate situation, even though LY's team clearly underachieved. It's been even tougher than expected so far for Rhule as his Bears have yet to win a game and enter this week at 0-6 SU w/ just two covers to their credit. Only one time in conference play have they been able to stay within single digits of their opponent, ironically against Oklahoma.

But I believe the Bears have some fight left in them and will give #23 West Virginia all it can handle Saturday night in Waco. The Bears' three home losses have come by a total of 18 points. Yes, one of them was to Liberty, a FCS program. They also lost to UTSA, a game where they failed to score enough to even cover how much they were favored by (lost 17-10, were -11). But, as mentioned above, they did play Oklahome tough here, losing only 49-41 as 28-pt underdogs. I was impressed there by the fact they rallied back to take a second half lead after initially trailing 14-0 early in the game. Baylor is now a perfect 5-0 ATS as a home dog going back to 2011 and Rhule is 23-9 ATS all-time in his coaching career when priced as a dog w/ 11 outright victories. Watch the number as he's 11-3 ATS as a double-digit dog. 

Helping Baylor here is the fact that I absolutely hate this spot for WVU, laying points on the road. They are off a wild, come from behind win last week over Texas Tech in Morgantown. They fell behind by as many as 18 early in the second half before storming back to score the game's final 29 points! They were outgained by the Red Raiders, 513-396. Oklahoma State is on deck next week in a huge home game and the players may be looking ahead to that game. That same Oklahoma State team just whipped Baylor last week, 59-16, but I'm willing to foresake that result as the game was in Stillwater and the Pokes were off a bye (admittedly Baylor was too). Somewhat shockingly, the WVU offense only ran for 44 yards last week on a Texas Tech defense that no one will confuse w/ Alabama. Last year in Morgantown, with nothing to play for, Baylor easily covered the 17-spread, losing only 24-21 in a game they initially led 14-3. Since WVU joined the Big 12, the home team is a perfect 5-0 straight up in their meetings w/ Baylor. 8* Baylor

8* Wake Forest (7:30 ET): Georgia Tech enters the week as one of only a handful of teams that has covered the spread in all of its games this season. They're 5-0 ATS to be exact, but in a pretty awful spot this week and thus I see them failing to cover for the first time. Last Saturday saw them suffer a tough 25-24 loss down in Miami, a game that was played two days later than was originally planned due to Hurricane Irma shuffling around "The U's" schedule. It was the Yellow Jackets' second one-point loss of the season, the other coming to Tennessee (doesn't that look bad now?) in the season opener. Now they must turn around and host rested Wake Forest, a team whose defense will certainly keep this one close. Take the points and do so quickly as the line continues to drop. 

Last week was certainly an advantageous spot for the Yellow Jackets, as they were coming off a bye while Miami was coming off an emotional last second win over rival Florida State. While they blew a 24-13 second half lead, note the Jackets were outgained pretty severely by the 'Canes, (481-281), so the final result was probably deserved. Now it is they (Ga Tech) who must deal with a rested opponent. The bye week is huge for the underdog Demon Deacons here as it allows for extra preparation for the Yellow Jackets' triple-option. Plus, bye or not, they probably already had the necessary defensive personnel to stop the Ga Tech offensive attack. The Deacons rank 16th nationally in rush defense EPA and while they haven't faced the Yellow Jackets since 2010 (really!), they have gone up against similar offenses in Tulane and Army the past several seasons and done well at stopping them.

Wake may be 1-2 SU in ACC play, but that's due to the fact they had to play Florida State and Clemson the L2 games. They played the Seminoles very tough in Winston-Salem, even outgaining them 367-270, and had a chance to send the game into overtime on the final play (lost 26-19). Against Clemson, it was back door cover (trailed 28-0), but I though the Deacons played the defending Nat'l Champs closer than the score suggested in Death Valley. Again, Dave Clawson's team has a Top 20 defense nationally in terms of efficency. As a road dog, Clawson has gone a pretty outstanding 9-3 ATS the L3 seasons including an outright win at B.C. (34-10!) back in Week 2. This truly is a wretched spot for Ga Tech, who is not only off its second one-point loss of the year, but also has a date at Clemson next week. Wake Forest will be ready to go and an outright upset is a strong possibility Saturday night in Atlanta. 8* Wake Forest

8* Mississippi (7:15 ET): LSU was a nice winner for me last Saturday, but let's not lose sight of the fact that they trailed Auburn 20-0 (at home) before storming back to take the game outright (as 7.5-pt dogs) 26-23. Or the fact they lost at home to Troy. Last week was the first cover for the Bayou Bengals (who wouldn't be denied w/ former HC Les Miles in the house) since the opener against BYU (who still hasn't covered a game this year!). In two "true" road games, they've won by one (17-16 over Florida) and gotten trounced by Mississippi State. I faded them in Starkville (Miss St) and am not about to endorse them as similar road chalk based off one come from behind victory. Take the points here. 

Like LSU, it was a rare cover for Ole Miss last week as they routed Vanderbilt 57-35 in Oxford. Depending on your result from the previous Saturday (against Auburn), it was either the first or second cover of the season for the Rebels. Regardless, it snapped a three-game losing streak (all on the road). There is no denying the talent on hand here, but the issue was going to be motivation after an ugly divorce from Hugh Freeze right before the season. The word "prostitutes" is never something school officials want to see next to their name! All jokes aside, last week may have seen the Rebels turn a corner. That was (supposedly) a very good Vandy defense that they shredded to the tune of 600 total yards and 57 points last week, led by QB Shea Patterson. The Rebels now actually lead the SEC in passing offense 357.2 YPG by a wide margin. That could spell trouble for an LSU defense that has not seen this amount of talent at the skill positions this season.

With four of their next five games here in Oxford (only road game at Kentucky), I can see Ole Miss going on a bit of a late season run. Granted, it wouldn't net them a bowl appearance (ineligible due to Freeze shenanigans), but it would still be a nice way to go out for the seniors who have stuck through and those looking to rebuild the program. Interim HC Matt Luke is still auditioning for a job. As for LSU, I hate this spot as they have a bye week on deck and then the showdown vs. #1 Alabama after that, so the players could be caught looking ahead. HC Ed Orgeron (former HC at Ole Miss) inserted his foot into his mouth earlier this week when he said this game didn't mean much “because the truth is the whole time I was there I was wishing I were here.” It's not like the home dog needed any more motivation after suffering a 38-21 loss (as seven-point dogs) in Baton Rouge last season. That marked the fifth consecutive time in this SEC West rivalry that the home team won, so again, I'm in no rush to lay points w/ the road team here, especially w/ LSU just 2-7 ATS its last nine "true" road games (2-5 as favorite). It's come full circle for them going from decided road favorite (Miss St) to decided home dog (Auburn) and now back again. Meanwhile, Ole Miss seems to be just now hitting its stride w/ Patterson completing 66% of his pass attempts.  8* Mississippi 

10* Florida Atlantic (5:00 ET): At the start of the season, I said Lane Kiffin was stepping into a good situation here in Boca Raton as he was inheriting the most experienced team in the entire country! Granted, things didn't start out all that well on the scoreboard, but that was to be expected w/ the first two games at Navy and Wisconsin, two teams that right now are a combined 11-1 straight up. Since then, however, the Owls have gone 3-1 w/ the lone loss coming by three points at Buffalo. I cashed them three weeks ago at home against Middle Tennessee where they were in a price range similar to the one here and they won 38-20. That was followed up by a 30-point road win at Old Dominion and then they were off last week, which allows them ample time to prepare for a North Texas team already off B2B upsets. I see the Kiffin renaissance continuing this week. Lay the short number. 

The last two weeks have seen North Texas upset both Southern Miss and UTSA. They were 7.5-pt dogs at Southern Miss, a game in which they won 43-28, so it could certainly be called an "impressive" victory even though the Mean Green initially trailed 14-0. But last week's 29-26 win over UTSA certainly deserved to be filed in the "improbable" folder. This time, they actually got off to a strong start (led 16-7 after one quarter), but were down 26-22 w/ just over one minute left in the game and 98 yards away from their end zone. What happened next was just incredible. The Mean Grean marched down the field in seven plays, the last of which was a 22-yard TD w/ just 10 seconds remaining. Needless to say, it was one of the most stunning wins of the entire College Football weekend.

Despite their 4-2 SU record, North Texas is hardly outscoring foes (4.5 PPG) while FAU - at 3-3 SU - is actually +8.4 PPG. Off a bye, the situation is ideal for the home team while I just don't see how the road dog can summon up the energy again after last week's improbable result. Before the win at Southern Miss, North Texas had lost its first two road games by a total of 39 points. This is a team that had just seven road wins total the previous six seasons, three of those coming in the 9-4 SU season in 2013. FAU is rested and ready to go here and armed w/ some revenge after losing both previous visits from the Mean Green (four straight losses to UNT overall). This offense is good as it has topped 30 pts in three consecutive games and averaging 430 YPG for the season. I feel this line is off by a touchdown. 10* Florida Atlantic

8* Indiana (3:30 ET): Michigan State is 3-0 SU in Big 10 play, but all three wins have come by seven points or less. Now I know the Sparty faithful are going to be quick to point out last week's "backdoor" situation against Minnesota when they were up 30-13 in the 4Q, only to give up two late touchdowns and lose the cover (were four-point favorites on the road). But what about the week prior when they stunned Michigan (again!) at The Big House, winning 14-10 courtesy of a +5 turnover margin, which in turn nullified them gaining only 252 yards on offense? Meanwhile, Indiana covered for me last week (had them +7.5), but for the vast majority of bettors, they fell short (again) against Michigan, losing in overtime. An 0-3 ATS record vs. Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan is downright criminal considering how well IU played those teams (well, at least 2 of the 3) and it's about time they finish one of these games proper. This could very well be an upset, but I'll take the points.

Like many of the other top teams in the Big 10, Michigan State has been played tough by Indiana. But the Hoosiers have not beaten the Spartans in B2B seasons since '93-'94, which was the ONLY time they've done it since 1969! They'll be going for history Saturday as last year, they did pull the upset (in a similar price range), 24-21 in overtime (I was on them). At no point in that game was IU not covering. Their last visit to East Lansing resulted in a highly misleading final of 52-26 as it was only a two-point game in the 4Q before an insane confluence of events conspired against them. From '93 to '14, Indiana appeared in only one bowl game ('07), but now the program is on a better trajectory as they're looking to make it three straight postseasons. Holding onto the "Ol' Brass Spittoon" would be a nice trophy en route. 

Entering this game at 3-3 SU, Indiana might very well have to pull an upset as the majority of their remaining "winnable" games are on the road. Rutgers at home is probably a lock. So they probably have to split the four road games against Mich St, Maryland, Illinois and Purdue. Meanwhile, Michigan State is 5-1 SU, but could easily be 3-3 SU. It will be interesting to see how Mark Dantonio's young roster responds to being in the favorite role moving forward. Prior to last week, the Spartans had not scored more than 18 points in over a month, which obviously makes it difficult to like them as chalk, no matter how good the defense is. Indiana's offense (redshirt freshman Peyton Ramsey now starting) will be the best that they've faced since Notre Dame (only loss) and their defense comes in a little underrated (seventh overall in Big 10, fourth against the pass). With three conference wins by a total of 14 pts and a suspect offense, Michigan State is prime fade material here. 8* Indiana

8* Texas (12:00 ET): The Tom Herman era in Austin started not w/ a bang, but rather a whimper as his Longhorns were stunned in the season opener, losing 51-41 to Maryland (trailed 30-14 at half, but finished w/ 26-18 edge in FD's). But it turns out that result was the exception and not the rule as the Longhorns have covered every game since! Now they're just 3-3 SU overall having also lost to USC and Oklahoma. But both of those games were close and could have gone either way against favored and highly ranked opponents. Oklahoma State obviously presents a challenge, particularly on the offensive side of the ball, but Herman has the Texas defense playing at a high level and I think they'll be up for it. I'm taking the points and won't be surprised if it ends up as an outright upset!

Oklahoma State comes in ranked #1 in the country in total offense at 610.7 YPG and #2 in scoring at 48.8 points per game. Their top two receivers - James Washington and Marcell Ateman - have both posted four straight 100 yard games, becoming the first duo to do so since 1996! Last week, the Pokes whitewashed Baylor 59-16, which was not much of a surprise considering they were off a bye and the game was in Stillwater. Shockingly, OSU has won each of its last four trips into Austin, the longest such streak by any visitor in the HISTORY of Texas football! But the Longhorns' defense just fared pretty well against an Oklahoma offense which came into the game ranked ahead of OSU in total offense. They held the Sooners to just nine points after halftime in what was a failed come from behind attempt.

Coming into this season, I viewed these teams as likely to trend in opposite directions compared to 2016. Texas was a lock to improve under Herman following LY's disappointing 5-7 SU finish under Charlie Strong. There were 17 starters back, 10 on defense, and the team actually played much better than that 5-7 record indicates. They lost five games by a TD or less, three of them when favored. Also, they actually outgained Big 12 opponents despite a 3-6 conference record! Earlier, I mentioned that Texas has covered every game since the opener (5-0 ATS) and Herman is now 7-0 ATS his L7 times as a dog w/ five outright wins! The Longhorns led both USC and Oklahoma in the fourth quarter and it's about "high time" that they win one of these close ones. I know everyone loves this OK State offense, but they were held in check by a TCU defense (at home) that isn't as good as the one they'll face Saturday. It's easy when you can throw the ball all over the field against inferior opposition, but that will not be the case here. 8* Texas

8* Old Dominion (6:00 ET): Old Dominion has "accomplished" something that's hard to do and that's lost four straight games by 30 or more points. The scores have been 53-23 (North Carolina), 38-0 (Va Tech), 58-28 (Fla Atlantic) and last week, 35-3 (Marshall). Now we all expected (at least I did) some regression from the Monarchs this season considering they aren't as experienced and were unlikely to have the same turnover margin as last year (+13). But, remember, this team won TEN games in 2016. So, it's definitely "hard times" down in Norfolk and things get no easier this week w/ a visit from the presumed C-USA East favorite Western Kentucky. For ODU, this is a revenge shot from their lone league last year, which came by 35 points in Bowling Green. They were only 13-pt dogs on the road there, so you can see how perception has swung in a year's time. As ugly as ODU's recent performances have been, I'll take the points here. 

Up until last week, Western Kentucky had not covered a spread this season (favored in every game so far). But they rolled up over 600 yds total offense on Charlotte (one of the worst teams in the entire country) in a 45-14 win as 17.5-pt chalk. The schedule has not been challenging to this point as the Hilltoppers have faced only one opponent ranked higher than 100 in my own personal power rankings (LA Tech) and they lost to them, by one, at home. They also lost at Illinois, which you normally wouldn't penalize them for, but the Fighting Illini are the worst Power 5 team in the country, and the Hilltoppers were favored there. Despite the weak schedule, WKU is only outgaining its opponents by 30 YPG this season.

WKU has won all three meetings vs. ODU, most of them high-scoring. In fact, the lowest scoring Hilltopper effort of the three was 55 points! But the offense isn't as prolific this year w/ former HC Jeff Brohm having gone to Purdue. They're averaging only 25.5 PPG through six games and the two road games (Illinois, UTEP) have seem them scored just 22 TOTAL! Old Dominion is hardly an offensive juggernaut, but a front seven that was thought to be the strength of the team coming into the year, has underachieved drastically. Note that last week, the Monarchs trailed Marshall only 14-3 entering the fourth quarter. They are on an 8-3 SU in conference home games, including 4-0 last season. It hasn't helped that they've yet to win the turnover battle in any of their games this season. RB Ray Lawly will return to the Monarchs' lineup this week and that will surely help the offense. 8* Old Dominion

10* Oakland (8:25 ET): Coming into the year, this was certainly a game the Raiders had "circled" on their schedule. There were two deciding factors in the Chiefs winning the AFC West and not the Silver and Black last season, despite both finishing w/ identical 12-4 SU records. One was Raiders QB Derek Carr getting hurt before the final game. The second was Kansas City sweeping the season series. Overall, KC has now won five straight over Oakland and will be favored to make it six in a row Thursday night. As much as they were probably looking forward to this game, the Raiders will take a win over anybody right now as they've dropped four in a row, failing to cover the spread every time. So this game now has an even greater importance for them. The Chiefs are also off a loss here, their first of 2017, as they were beaten at home by Pittsburgh last week. I'm going to take the points here. 

Oakland came into this season on the short list of teams expected to challenge New England for AFC supremacy. I didn't buy it as this team was extraordinarily fortunate in 2016 by going 8-1 SU in one-score games and finishing tied (w/ the Chiefs!) for the league's best turnover differential. Also, their regular season point differential of +31 was the lowest EVER for a team finishing w/ 12 or more wins. But, circling back to this game, I would not have thought (coming into the year) that the Raiders would be a home dog in this spot. Part of it is the Chiefs' hot start and part of it is obviously their own four-game slide. But there is no denying this team is much better w/ Carr in the lineup and while he's missed only one game due to a back injury, his absence at least partly explains why the team is currently on a four-game losing streak. Note that the last time the Raiders lost four in a row (2014), they responded w/ a Thurs night home win over these Chiefs! 

KC hasn't lost many AFC West games since that Thursday night affair three years ago. In fact, they won 12 straight division games, going 9-3 ATS in the process. They entered last week almost universally hailed as the best team in the league, but as mentioned before, were beaten at home by the Steelers 19-13. They were pretty thoroughly dominated as well, getting outgained 439-251. The 28 yards rushing on only 15 carries was a real "eye-opener." This game may very well come down to turnovers. The Chiefs lead the league in TO margin the L3 seasons and haven't given the ball away since their first offensive play from scrimmage this season! Alex Smith has gone 202 attempts w/o throwing an INT. Meanwhile, the Raiders are just the third team in NFL history not to record a single INT in the first six games! Something has to give here, right? I know the success road teams are having this season (5-1 SU on Thurs nights too), but this is a desperate home dog playing for its season. Kansas City may be down two starting offensive linemen here. 10* Oakland

8* Houston (8:00 ET): Houston is still "picking up the pieces" from an embarrassing 45-17 loss at Tulsa on Saturday (were 14-pt favorites). I was on the Golden Hurricane in that game, and while I believed an outright upset was a distinct possibility, that final score took even me aback. It was a close game most of the way (total yardage virtually even) and UH even led 10-7 at the half! But Tulsa was not to be denied in the second half, scoring on each of its six drives! Two turnovers, one a fumble that was returned for a TD very late in the game, made the final score far more lopsided than it "should" have been. Of course, one of the reasons I played against the Cougs there is I thought they might be looking ahead to this game, an AAC West showdown w/ #25 Memphis.

Memphis comes in as one of THREE AAC teams currently ranked in the top 25 (UCF, USF). However, they are the "dreaded" ranked underdog against an unranked foe here. The Tigers come in averaging just over 40 PPG and can claim victories over UCLA and Navy. Their only loss was a rescheduled affair at UCF when they were blown out on the road, 40-13. Their only other road game so far came the following week at hideous UConn. So that's something to make a note of. I figured this team would compete for the AAC West crown as they came into the year as the most experienced group in the entire conference. However, they've been a little bit fortunate w/ three wins by eight points or less, two of them by a field goal (UCLA, Navy), Last week's win over the Midshipmen was greatly aided by forcing FIVE turnovers. The final one (an INT) preserved the 30-27 victory as Navy was driving for the potential game-tying (or winning) score. Given they forced five turnovers, you would think the Tigers would have won by a more comfortable margin. Bad news for them here is the fact they are 3-9 ATS when off B2B SU wins and 3-10 ATS when facing an opponent that has a winning record.

This is a big revenge spot for UH as they lost last year up in the Liberty Bowl, 48-44 as six-point favorites. They actually trailed by 17 at halftime before storming back and taking their first lead (37-34) w/ just over seven minutes left. The teams then exchanged touchdowns, again leaving the Cougars up three, this time w/ just 89 seconds remaining. But, they then gave up a 5-play, 72-yard drive, which ended in a touchdown for Memphis w/ just 19 seconds left. The previous year, Houston had to pull off a 20-point comeback here at home just to win 35-34 as five-point favorites (both teams were ranked). I don't see Major Applewhite's team falling into such a big hole this time around. Take away sack yardage and the Memphis defense is currently surrendering 242 yards per game on the ground. That ranks 114th nationally and every FBS opponent has gained at least 150 (over land) against them. So Houston should be able to move the ball effectively here (plus Memphis just had to dismiss a DL due to rape charges) and a Thursday night home game w/ revenge is motivation enough to put them over the top (UH is 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS L5 Thursday games) 8* Houston

10* Tennessee (8:25 ET): This AFC South has been incredibly one-sided dating back to when Peyton Manning still played for the Colts. The Titans have lost 11 in a row to Indy, the last win coming back in 2011, which was the year before the Colts drafted Andrew Luck (Manning injured). Going back further, Tennessee is just 1-16 SU the last 17 meetings! They are only 2-9 ATS during the 11-game losing streak. But, 2017 just "feels" like the time for the Titans to start turning this division rivalry around. As we know, it won't be Manning or Luck under center Monday night for the Colts, rather it will be Jacoby Brissett. As for Tennessee, they thankfully get Marcus Mariota back after basically a two-game absence (inj early in Houston game) that went very poorly for the team to say the least. While both teams come in at 2-3 SU, the Titans' scoring differential is much better and that's with the 57-14 loss to the Texans two weeks ago! Lay the points. 

The Colts went out and acquired Brissett immediately after a disastrous 46-9 loss to the Rams in Week 1. He's led them to a 2-2 SU record, but let's put that record in its proper perspective. The wins came against Cleveland and San Francisco, who are a combined 0-12 SU and both came by just a field goal (49ers win required OT) at home. So this team is a lot closer to being winless than they are a viable contender in the division. They're being outgained by a NFL-worst 95.4 yards per game w/ their two previous road games being absolutely atrocious as they were outscored by a combined 92-27. The offensive line struggles to protect Brissett (sacked 14x) and the defense just isn't very good. Really, we're learning just how valuable Andrew Luck has been to this team the last few years as this is a really poor roster overall. 

Tennessee came into this season thinking playoffs, but the Mariota injury has really dampened things. Remember though, with him in the lineup, this team did whip an improved Jacksonville team on the road and beat the Seahawks here at home. Note that if Mariota is unable to go, this play still stands as you'll be able to get a significantly better number. The Titans' defense allowed only 178 yards last week (yet the team still lost!) and I don't see them giving up much here to a Brissett-led offense. The last two games w/ Mariota in at QB, the Titans topped 30 pts both times. This game is a really huge deal for Tennessee as it's not only a rare MNF appearance, but also a very opportune time to snap their long losing streak against a hated divisional foe. 10* Tennessee

10* Arizona (4:05 ET): The David Johnson-less Cardinals have been a disappointment so far (yet to win a game in regulation!), particularly at the betting window where they are 0-5 ATS (league's only winless team ATS). But here they draw a Tampa Bay team that I was never as high on as everyone else seemed to be, and are getting points to boot, at home. Last week's 34-7 loss to Philadelphia was undoubtedly ugly, but it was also on the road against a very good team. Tampa Bay came into 2017 overrated, at least in my opinion, as they were outscored (-15 pt diff) despite a 9-7 SU record and were a league-high +6 in net upsets (were only favored three times all season!). This year, the burden of expectations may have caught them as they're only 1-3 at the pay window. I'm taking the points here and expect Arizona to win. 

Even this year, at only 2-2 SU, the Bucs seem to be overachieving. They're being outgained by 22 yards per game. Looking at their two wins, one was a turnover-fueled situation against Chicago and the other came on a last second FG against the winless Giants. The defense made Case Keenum look like a viable NFL starter back in Week 2, allowing him to complete 25 of 33 pass attempts in a 34-17 loss to the Vikings. Last week, despite a season-high in total yardage, I was disappointed (but not surprised) that the offense managed only 14 pts against a New England defense that had really been struggling. Yes, I know the kicking game was a MAJOR issue in that Thursday night affair, but that's nothing new and special teams are a legit concern here. There were also six drives of four plays or less for the Bucs' offense. The Bucs' defense is far from healthy right now as four starters are less than 100 percent. 

Arizona is outgaining its foes by 15 YPG and thus due for better results, especially considering they actually LED THE LEAGUE in YPG differential last year (+61.6). In fact, that 7-8-1 SU record from 2016 could qualify as totally misleading seeing as the Cards also outscored opponents by 56 points, which was more than all but SIX teams in the entire league! Now, it's pretty apparant that QB Carson Palmer is at "14:59" of his career and ultimately, the Adrian Peterson trade won't mean much. But I'm staunchly of the opinion that the Cardinals are better than their results over the L21 games while TB isn't as good as it's been made out to be. The Arizona offensive line is also getting healthy, which is key. This team isn't a home dog often and presents a pretty substantial value play here considering they crushed the Bucs LY, 40-7, on this field. 10* Arizona

8* Jacksonville (4:05 ET): This is a really interesting matchup between surprisingly good teams. When I started to handicap it, I figured I'd come out leaning towards the Rams as they outgained Seattle in a close loss last week. Meanwhile, Jacksonville's 30-9 win over Pittsburgh may not have been as impressive as it looked considering basically three plays decided that game, two of them being pick six's that went their way (Ben Roethlisberger threw 5 INT's overall). However, when I ran my power rankings, it turns out that Jacksonville is actually being underpriced here. They lead the NFL in point differential (stunning!) and should be closer to a touchdown favorite, in my opinion. Don't discount the impact playing Seattle still has on a team the following week. Lay the short number. 

Most will call Jacksonville's 3-2 start "surprising" and while I'm inclined to agree, prior to the season starting, the majority of metrics did indicated that there would be improvement here. For starters, the turnover battle was "due" to start going their way. In 16 games LY, they produced only 13 takeaways and had a TO margin of -16 (2nd worst). In just five games so far this year, they've already forced 15 TO's (scored 74 pts off them) and lead the league in differential! Funny how that works! The Jags former HC, Gus Bradley, never could put together a winning season here. But he did leave behind a defense that was poised to be excellent and that's come to fruition as they're allowing just 16.6 PPG and three times have held the opponent to nine points or less! Sure, they've yet to string together B2B victories. But this is also only the second time they've been favored. They've overachieved in the early going, which will serve them well moving forward as they look to take a very winnable AFC South.

The Rams' defense was thought to be a strength coming into the year, but instead it has been the offense as this team looks totally different under HC Sean McVay compared to the odious Jeff Fisher. They scored 35 pts or more in three of the first four games before getting held to only 10 in LW's home loss to the Seahawks. I faded them in that spot LW as I just didn't think they were worthy favorites against the team that has been the class of their division for the last five years. I still think the Rams are getting a bit too much "residual" credit from that 46-9 beatdown of the Colts back in Week 1. While you could say the same for the Jags and their 37-point win (44-7) over the Ravens, the fact is that in the other four games, Jacksonville has outscored its opponents while the Rams have not. The Jags are the better team here (especially on defense, which is a surprise) and should be getting more credit here for playing at home. The Rams could be looking ahead to next week's trip to London (teams just 12-25-1 ATS in that spot). 8* Jacksonville

8* Cleveland (1:00 ET): You'll get no argument from me that the Browns are a bad football team. Since Hue Jackson took over (before last season), they are now a mind-numbing 1-20 straight up. Perhaps equally as embarrassing is their 5-16 ATS mark. (So much for the pointspread being the "great equalizer!"). They are one of three winless teams (49ers, Giants) entering Week 6 where they are (not surprisingly) getting big points on the road. But you may be shocked to learn that despite a -44 point differential, the Browns are outgaining foes this year on a per game basis and are basically even in yards per play! Therefore, I'm going to "roll the dice" here as yet another QB (Kevin Hogan) tries to jumpstart this moribund franchise. Houston is a team I was NOT high on entering the year and they just lost JJ Watt for the season. Take the points in what has the potential to be a stunning upset Sunday.

Last week's loss to the Jets was horrific even by Browns' standards. At home, they outgained the Flyboys by a nearly 2:1 margin, yet still came up three points short on the scoreboard (17-14). Making that final score all the more painful is the fact that THREE times Cleveland had the ball inside the Jets' 10-yard line and came away w/ ZERO points! Watching the game, I felt the blame lied at the feet of HC Jackson and not rookie QB DeShone Kizer, who was not put into the most ideal situations. That said, I think the move to start Hogan here is the correct one as Kizer clearly is NOT ready for the NFL level yet, particularly with such a lack of weapons around him. Hogan won't be bringing back the "glory days" in Cleveland, but he's more mobile than you think and directed both of the team's TD drives last week. 

The Texans were able to rank near the top of the league in yards allowed LY despite being w/o Watt most of the way. But expecting them to do so again seems foolish. Also, that side of the ball has been further negatively impacted by the loss of Whitney Mercilus. So that's the top two defensive players that the Texans will be without. Even though they lost last week (at home to Kansas City), I feel this is a unique situation where a team is overvalued after a LOSS. That was a national TV game against the Chiefs and QB DeShaun Watson continued to look good. But consider that w/ one exception - a ridiculous 57-14 win over Tennessee two weeks ago - the Texans have not produced a single double-digit victory the last two years! It is Cleveland that surprisingly comes into this game w/ the better defensive numbers as they rank in the Top 5, giving up just 304.8 YPG. 8* Cleveland

8* New Orleans (1:00 ET): Bye weeks started last week, thus four teams come into Week 6 w/ some early season rest. All four play at home and three of them are being asked to lay double-digits. Interestingly, the one that is NOT is New Orleans, a team typically known for a strong homefield advantage at the Mercedes Benz Superdome. Now it's been a "high level of mediocrity" in the Big Easy these last several seasons (three straight 7-9 SU finishes), which is what happens when you consistently field a top five offense, but also a bottom five defense. This season saw the Saints start 0-2 w/ losses to the Vikings and Patriots (underdogs in both games). But "true to form," they bounced back w/ B2B wins before the bye, beating Carolina and Miami by a combined 54-13 margin.

Coming into the year, I felt "regression" was the operative word for a Lions team that somewhat fraudulently made the playoffs a season ago. They didn't beat a single playoff team en route to LY's 9-7 SU regular season record, which required an NFL-high EIGHT fourth quarter comebacks. The Lions were actually outscored over the course of last year, even before getting blown out by Seattle in the Wild Card Game. So when I saw this team sitting at 3-1 SU going into last week, I just had to fade them. Sure enough, they lost 27-24 to Carolina and the game wasn't really that close as they were outgained by 120 yards and trailed by as many as 17 at home. As I projected, close games have started to go AGAINST the Lions. They also lost to Atlanta, 30-26, after being stopped at the goal line on the final play. (It should also be pointed out that they were outgained pretty severely by the Falcons & only in the game due to a +3 turnover margin). 

A strange thing has keyed the Saints resurgence the L2 games and that's their defense has actually played well! In addition to allowing just 13 pts in the pair of victories, they've given up an average of only 237 yards per game! Yes, playing Miami (in London) certainly helped, but note Detroit is averaging only 288 YPG offensively. It's also worth pointing out that the Saints whipped the Panthers in Carolina while Detroit lost to them at home. QB Matt Stafford is not 100% right now either. There's even more significant attrition on the defensive side of the ball w/ Haloti Ngata possibly done for the year. As for New Orleans, theybye obviously allows them to come in healthy as LT Terron Armstead is set to make his 2017 debut after offseason shoulder surgery as will WR Willie Snead (suspended first four games). Dumping Adrian Peterson before he became a distraction was a wise move. The Lions' defense allowed a very high completion percentage LY and that seems problematic against Drew Brees, who is averaging almost a full yard more per attempt compared to his counterpart Stafford. 8* New Orleans

8* Chicago (1:00 ET): The Bears have not won a road game since 2015. They share that ignominious distinction w/ only the Browns. But we're in the "Mitchell Trubisky era" now. The rookie signal-caller made his pro debut last week (Monday night) and while his play was "so-so" (at best), there's no denying the team at least played hard. In fact, they led most of the way against Minnesota, only ceding the lead late after a bad Trubisky interception. This week brings what looks to be a greater challenge, at Baltimore, but the Ravens are banged up team right now and a money-burning 0-5 ATS their last five times as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. This looks like your classic overlay as I don't think Chicago is as bad as the oddsmakers seem to. Take the points.

Partly responsible for this line is the fact Baltimore went into Oakland last week and came away w/ a fairly convincing 30-17 (were three-point dogs). However, that was not a Raiders team at full strength as they were without QB Derek Carr. Furthermore, the Silver and Black are overrated to begin with. Let's also not forget what happened to the Ravens the previous two weeks; they were beaten down by both Jacksonville (in London) and Pittsburgh (at home), getting outscored 70-16. You may be surprised to learn that this team is -40.2 YPG compared to their opponents. Also remember that they benefited from TEN turnovers in their first two wins, one of which was against the Browns. Earlier I mentioned that the Ravens are "banged up" right now. Really, that's putting things mildly as they have a NFL-high 16 players currently on IR! The most significant of those injuries are all along the offensive line where the team is already down to its third different right tackle!

Chicago may be -9.2 in point per game differential, but they're roughly even in total yardage, only being outgained by just over five yards per game. Even w/ four games of Mike Glennon, the Bears' offense is averaging more YPG than is the Ravens. Even though they lost both games, they outgained both the Packers and Vikings the L2 wks, a positive sign if you're Chicago. While Baltimore benefited from forcing 10 TO's in pair of wins, the Bears have suffered two losses where they gave away the ball eight times. These teams are a little more even than you think (remember Chicago upset Pittsburgh!) and the Bears are a perfect 8-0 ATS the L3 seasons in games where the total is 42 pts or less. Bottom line is that in a game where I don't expect a ton of scoring, taking points is the way to go. 8* Chicago

8* USC (8:00 ET): This is one of those rare instances where the public is likely going to be backing the underdog. After all, at worst, Utah has gone 4-0-1 ATS for bettors (5-0 for some), depending on your line for LW's tilt vs. Stanford where the Utes lost 23-30. Meanwhile, USC is a disappointing 1-5 ATS, ironically the lone cover coming against Stanford. But the pointspread is more than justified here, at least in my opinion, as Utah was a fraudulent 4-0 going into last week and nowhere near worthy of Top 25 status. USC, despite losing at Washington State (when down three offensive lineman), remains one of the most talented teams in the entire country. This is a revenge spot for the Men of Troy as they lost LY in Salt Lake after blowing a double-digit 4Q lead. 

Prior to the game at Wazzu, Southern Cal had not lost since last year in Salt Lake. Even in defeat, I thought they outplayed the Utes LY and I'm not just saying that because I had them. They outgained them, but were -2 in turnovers. It was a Friday night game and both of Utah's final two touchdowns came on long drives, the final one going 93 yards and ending w/ just 16 seconds left on the clock (gave Utah a 31-27 lead). Again, while the majority of results for USC have been closer than expected this year, I don't think it's right to bury them. They did lose three O-lineman at Wazzu (another Fri night game!), yet were still tied late in the fourth quarter against maybe the toughest opponent they'll see all year (Notre Dame?). Last week, I faded them, but that came as large favorites (33-pt spread) and though I ended up covering rather easily (38-10 final), USC really dominated the game from the outset. It was 28-3 at the end of three quarters and the Trojans still finished w/ a rather significant 512-319 edge in total yds. 

Utah has two road wins thus far, but both were by only six points, and they were quite fortunate to overcome Arizona a couple weeks ago. That game saw them outgained 448-341 only to benefit from FIVE turnovers, the last of which came at their own 20-yd line w/ the game hanging in the balance. Even worse, QB Tyler Huntley was injured in that game, necessitating a move back to 2016 starter Trevor Williams. Williams struggled against Stanford, barely completing 50% of his pass attempts. The Utes have been tremendous as an underdog the last several seasons, but this reminds me a bit of their last visit to the Coliseum, two years ago, where they were ranked #3 in the country (unbeaten at the time!), yet underdogs and lost 42-24. In my opinion, Southern Cal remains the class of the Pac 12 South. 8* USC

8* Tulsa (4:00 ET): I can't say that Tulsa's 2017 regression comes as any surprise, given that I had them earmarked to take a step back following LY's somewhat stunning 10-3 (SU) campaign. After all, they lost their starting QB, a 1,600 yd rusher and TWO 1,000+ yd receivers from that team, not to mention three of the top four tacklers on the defensive side of the ball. That being said, I did not envision the Golden Hurricane coming into this key AAC West matchup at 1-5 straight up. They've lost four in a row, three of them close before last week's absolutely wretched deal at Tulane where a decision to move up kickoff was made very late (due to Hurricane Nate). It seems as if the Tulsa players didn't get that memo, however, as Tulane scored on each of its SEVEN first half possessions and went into the break up 48-7. The final score ended up being 62-28.  Back home this week, and getting lots of points, I expect a much more focused group. Take the points.

Houston came into the year as the favorite to win the division, just like last year when they underperformed (were considered New Year's Six contender) and finished only 9-4 SU in Tom Herman's final year. Major Applewhite was the OC under Herman, so there's not been much of a learning curve. That said, I feel the Cougars are a bit lucky to be 4-1 SU night. They've played nothing but close games (save for horrible Rice) and generally had the ball bounce their way. The season opener at Arizona (won 19-16) could have gone either way. They lost outright at home to Texas Tech, 24-17 as seven-point favorites, giving up over 500 yards of total offense (also turned the ball over five times). A 20-13 win at Temple (who has also taken a major step back this year) saw them benefit from turnovers, but the big story there was Ed Oliver suffering a knee injury. He did play last week against SMU, but as I'm about to get into, that was a pretty lucky cover for the Cougs.

You can probably file that Houston-SMU game last Saturday right at the top of the "bad beats" pile. Yeah, SMU was probably in line for a non-cover anyway based on a 5-0 ATS start. But as 10-pt underdogs, they didn't trail by double digits until early fourth quarter. Trailing 35-22, the Mustangs' next three drives all reached the Houston side of the field, but NONE of them resulted in points. Houston was outgained by 81 yds in the contest and if you take away that game against Rice, then the overall numbers look really subpar. Granted, Tulsa has work to do as well, but two of their losses were by a field goal, one as a 7.5-pt home favorite against New Mexico. Last week's performance is no way indicative of what Philip Montgomery's team can bring to the table. Looking to avoid what would be a third straight loss at home (and fifth in a row overall), I expect a strong effort from the home dog Saturday. Meanwhile, UH seems to be in an awful spot given the lucky cover last week, the fact they have a QB controversy brewing (haven't even mentioned that!) and are looking at a short week coming up w/ Memphis on deck (at home) Thursday. 8* Tulsa

8* LSU (3:30 ET): It is quite amazing to see the shift in the market and public perception for this SEC West matchup. The look ahead line over the summer had LSU as the 7-point favorite. Now the Bayou Bengals' disappointing play thus far certainly justifies a move in the market, but I have to now wonder if that move is too much, plus the public is ALL over Auburn here. Such lopsided endorsement of the road team, as a favorite no less, seems somewhat foolish as the home team is on a 15-2 SU run in this rivalry. Yes, LSU has failed to cover its last five times as an underdog. But three of those games came against Alabama. Auburn might be feeling a bit too good about itself coming into Death Valley this year, strange because they have not won here since 1999! Take the points. 

LSU opened its season w/ a 27-0 shutout of BYU in what looked to be an impressive performance. We now know that BYU's offense is terrible and the Tigers haven't covered since. They were actually 8.5-pt favorites AT Mississippi State, a game that seems like it was played eons ago, and that 37-7 loss is what really began the downturn. Note I played AGAINST LSU in that game. I also played against them vs. Syracuse when they never came close to covering (still won 35-26). But, without question, the nadir of the season came w/ the 24-21 loss to Troy two weeks ago. LSU had the edge in total yds there, but was undone by four turnovers. With their stock seemingly at an all-time low and fans openly questioning the Ed Orgeron hire, the team responded with a win at Florida, which tells me they're not going to roll over. The defense held the Gators to only 302 total yds and will now be stronger w/ the returns of Rashard Lawrence and Frank Herron on the edge. On offense, RB Derrius Guice missed the Troy game and has not gone over 100 yds since the 2nd game of season. But according to Orgeron, he's had a strong week of practice and is ready to go here. Remember that Guice ran for almost 1400 yds and had 15 TD's last year as a backup. 

Auburn's three-game SEC win streak has come at the expense of teams that are a combined 1-7 SU in the league w/ Ole Miss and Mizzou arguably being the weakest teams overall. They did dominate the same Mississippi State team that dominated LSU, but the winners of both those games were the home teams. Something else certainly worth noting is that LSU was the road favorite for this matchup last year and lost outright 18-13 (laying three). So it's a revenge game for them. Here, I do not expect Auburn's offense to come anywhere close to the production we've seen so far in SEC play. Rather, it should be a lower scoring type affair conducive to taking the points. Yes it was Clemson they were playing, but Auburn's offense managed just over 100 total yards in an earlier road game. The only other road game they've played was at Missouri, who is awful to begin with and turned the ball over four times. 8* LSU

8* Texas Tech (12:00 ET): Plenty of points are expected in this Big 12 matchup (total is 75!), but I'm far more intrigued by the side in what looks like a trap spot for the short home chalk. Sure enough, the sharp dollars quickly flowed in AGAINST WVU here taking them from a TD favorite to nearly a field goal. What makes this a trap spot for the Mountaineers is that they are coming off a tough loss LW at TCU (both teams were off byes), 31-24, as 12.5-pt underdogs. It was a game WVU finished w/ the edge in total yards (508-406) and first downs (28-16), but two turnovers cost them and they gave up the GW TD w/ just under three minutes remaining. Texas Tech is a live dog here as not only did they go for 600+ total yds LW, but they also are 19-9-2 ATS overall their L30 games. Take the points (even though you may not end up needing them). 

The majority of signs were pointing down coming into the year in Morgantown. This is far from HC Dana Holgorsen's most experienced team as he had only eight starters back from last year's squad that finished 10-3 SU. Of course, that 10-3 SU record included a rather fortuitous 4-0 mark in games decided by four points or less. (BYU, Kansas St, Texas and Baylor were the teams they beat close). Ironically, one of LY's biggest wins in conference play came against Texas Tech, 48-17 (-2) in Lubbock. But that was actually the 'Neers' first cover against the Red Raiders since joining the Big 12. They were 0-4 ATS previously even though they've now won the L3 meetings (straight up). In their first game of '17, WVU was go-against team in my 10* Game of the Week and they lost to Va Tech. I wasn't all too impressed by a subsequent three-game win streak as the teams they beat included East Carolina (terrible), Delaware State (FCS) and Kansas (worst team in Big 12). That lack of impressiveness there is somewhat confirmed by them failing to cover twice. Last week's loss in Ft. Worth does not set them up well here as they are 1-6 ATS L3 seasons off a conference loss.

Texas Tech's only loss came two weeks ago to Oklahoma State, a game which really wasn't as close as the 31-24 final indicates. But they do have wins over both Arizona State and at Houston. Last week was not close as it was their turn to blow out Kansas, 65-19 as 14.5-pt chalk. It's worth noting they dominated Kansas far more than WVU did. We know this team can move the ball as they come in averaging 549.8 YPG. Last week marked the 3rd time they broke the 600-yard threshold. Now WVU does average roughly 30 more YPG, but you might be surprised to learn that the Texas Tech defense is better overall and on a yards per play basis (5.5 to 6.1). While I'm a bit surprised to see the Red Raiders ranked in the AP Poll (#24) (they replaced WVU!), I feel this game sets up well for them as it's a triple revenge spot and WVU has lost nine straight to ranked opponents. The Red Raiders can also run the ball, something that has NOT been the case in past seasons. 8* Texas Tech

10* Army (12:00 ET): Burdened w/ expectations for the 1st time in the Jeff Monken era (4th year here at West Point), the Cadets are having a little bit of an issue covering spreads. They've actually been favored four times previous to here and gone just 2-2 ATS. However, it's interesting to note that all four times saw them asked to lay double digits, which is NOT the case this week as they welcome Eastern Michigan to campus. EMU achieved its greatest success in years last season (1st bowl appearance since '87!), but was expected to regress here in '17 and has responded in kind. They've dropped three in a row, albeit all by a TD or less. I don't like this spot for the visiting Eagles - at all - as not only is it a third consecutive road game, but stepping outside of MAC play right now probably isn't for the best. Lay the points.

Army did cover as a favorite LW, routing RIce by a final score of 49-12 (-12), on the road no less, their first win in Houston since '58. Now Rice is undoubtedly one of the worst teams in the country and they turned the ball over SIX times. But building a 35-0 by halftime was impressive for the Black Knights. Not exactly known for forcing TO's, Army forced one on each of Rice's first four possessions and scored a TD off every one! Their forte is of course running the football and they went for 418 yds over land, their most since the opener. They figure to have success here against an Eastern Michigan defense that has struggled against the run in four of its five games this season. Speaking of defense, Army has been pretty impressive on that side of the ball thus far. Only Ohio State has topped 21 points against them and Eastern Michigan isn't likely to, given they come in averaging only 19.0 PPG. 

This will be the third meeting in five years between these two schools as they've alternated every season. Army has won both prior meetings, scoring 50 or more each time. They are 6-1 SU all-time against the Eagles. Off three consecutive tough losses, it's going to be tough for Eastern Michigan to "get off the mat" here. Against Ohio U, they fell in double OT at home. Then came perhaps the toughest loss of the bunch, at Kentucky, where despite an edge in total yds they lost 24-20. Last week in Toledo, QB Brogan Roback threw an INT at the Toledo 31 yard line w/ just over a minute to go in a 20-15 loss. Given the turnover issues that have plagued EMU and what Army did to Rice last week, TO's again figure to be a deciding factor in this one. We know Army can run the ball, but Eastern Michigan cannot as during the three-game losing streak, they've averaged only 43.7 yards per game. 10* Army

8* Indiana (12:00 ET): Home dogs off a bye haven't performed as well as you might think ATS, but here Indiana happens to be catching Michigan at a most opportune time. Yes, you can dissect the Wolverines' horrid 14-10 home loss to Michigan State last week (were off a bye themselves) any way you'd like. They outgained Sparty (slightly) only to be undone by an ugly -5 turnover differential. But the Maize and Blue happen to be in real trouble right now as they're down several key players on the offensive side of the ball and backup QB John O'Korn did not look good at all last Saturday night. Furthermore, ranked teams off a loss have not fared well in the past, cashing in around just 45% when favored or on the road. Michigan happens to both this week and a popular choice among the public as well. Take the points. 

The fact that Indiana went 0 for 2 ATS against Ohio State and Penn State is misleading at best and criminal at worst. They played both Big 10 heavyweights tough. The season opener here in Bloomington saw IU "tooth and nail" w/ Ohio State for almost three quarters (led 21-20 w/ 4:56 left in 3Q!) only to wilt late due to an inability to stop Buckeyes' RB JK Dobbins. Michigan does not have a back anywhere near as dynamic as Dobbins. The Penn State game might have looked ugly on the scoreboard (lost 45-14 as 20-pt dogs), but note the Hoosiers turned it over four times in that game, two of which were INT's returned for touchdowns. I thought their defense held up really well against a potent Nittany Lions offense, holding them to just 370 total yds and Heisman front-runner Saquon Barkley to 56 yds on 26 carries. Again, the offense they'll face this week is nowhere near as good as Ohio State or Penn State's. Michigan is averaging barely 4.0 yards per rush and has a backup in at quarterback. Michigan's defense might be #1 in the country and forcing three and outs, but Indiana's is actually #2!

Now the Wolverines do have one of the better defenses in the entire country. But they've also yet to face an offense as good as what Indiana brings to the table. The Hoosiers' 34-17 win over Virginia (on the road!) keeps looking better and better given how the Hoos have subsequently performed. Furthermore, Indiana will keep the Michigan defense "on its toes" as they are likely to rotate QB's w/ senior Richard Lagow and freshman Peyton Ramsey (made 1st career start last week). No matter who is in at QB, they will have a talented set of receivers to throw the ball to. The Indiana defense has seen O'Korn before as he started against them LY due to a different Wilton Speight injury. That game saw the Hoosiers EASILY cover as 24-point underdogs in "The Big House." The last meeting here in Bloomington was also an easy cover as it went to double OT. While IU has not beaten Michigan since 1987 (lost 21 straight!), on paper, this year sets up as their best shot at an outright win. 8* Indiana

8* BYU (12:00 ET): Yes, Mississippi State is off a bye here and looking to get back on track after B2B embarrassing defeats at the hands of Auburn and Georgia (two admittedly very good teams). And they probably couldn't have asked for a better opponent as BYU rolls into Starkville for this early kick. BYU has lost five straight since a season opening win over FCS Portland State and has yet to cover a single pointspread here in 2017. Their 0-6 ATS record is in fact the worst in the entire country. But as bleak as things look right now in Provo, I believe this line has moved enough (hit the key number of 24!) to make taking the underdog worth the shot. As I've written about extensively before, teams getting three touchdowns or more this season have been KILLING it, going 82-47 ATS including 6-2 last week! Take the points.

Now, in the interest of full disclosure, I did think last week was an opportune time to back BYU as well. They jumped out to a 7-0 lead on Boise State, but would not score again and lost 24-7 as 7-pt underdogs. Certainly, we are not used to seeing BYU football play this poorly. I will point out that the lone FBS team they were favored against was Utah State and the money moved in sharply against them there (I actually had USU). That game saw BYU again take an early lead, only to be foiled by SEVEN turnovers, which negated an edge in total yards. While this team isn't good, I still think they're better than how they've looked so far. Before the current 0-4 ATS mark this year, this team had covered 8 of 10 in the underdog role. 

I think MSU is still getting "residual credit" for its 37-7 beatdown of LSU last month, which given the Tigers' subsequent struggles, no longer looks as impressive as it once did. All that goodwill earned for HC Dan Mullen there was quickly undone w/ the pair of losses to Auburn and Georgia, who outscored them 80-13 w/ significant yardage advantages. QB Nick Fitzgerald, who was made to look like a Heisman candidate by BYU, struggled badly in both losses. Stepping outside the SEC schedule here, off a bye no less, may not exactly be the most inspiring spot for the Bulldogs, especially given the state of the opponent. Be aware that last season saw BYU upset Mississippi State, in Provo, 28-21 (+7) in double overtime. Yes, that means the "revenge angle" is technically in play, but I'm not sure that will mean much to the Bulldogs' players here. Certainly not enough to actively seek out winning by a margin greater than what the oddsmakers are calling for. That game LY saw MSU never trail in regulation, but they failed to put the game away. This is BYU's longest losing streak since 1970 (!), so I feel they will actually be the more motivated side Sat afternoon. 8* BYU

10* Syracuse (8:00 ET): There are 13 remaining unbeatens in College Football and #2 Clemson is probably among the least surprising of them. The defending Nat'l Champs have not played an easy schedule by any means, holding wins over three Top 15 teams (at the time) - Auburn, Louisville & Virginia Tech. More impressive is that both ACC wins came on the road, though in retrospect those two wins may not have been as impressive as originally thought. At 6-0 SU, Tigers' fans are likely pointing to the B2B games in November against NC State and Florida State as the most likely stumbling blocks. But w/ an open date looming next week, they shouldn't sleep on this weeknight matchup at the Carrier Dome. Syracuse is an improved team this year and can certainly score.

The Tigers appeared to the be on their way to an easy cover LW in Death Valley against Wake Forest. They led 28-0 in fourth quarter (laying 21), but then gave up a pair of late TD's to allow the Demon Deacon in through the proverbial "back door." More critical, however, was the injury to QB Kelly Bryant (left w/ ankle injury). Bryant has surprised everyone so far in how well he's filled in for DeShaun Watson. But, at less than 100 percent, I'm interested to see how he performs. HC Dabo Swinney is on the record as saying he believes Bryant will play, but if he doesn't, it will be either a redshirt freshman or true freshman starting instead. That could be problematic on the road. Impressive as they've looked so far, coming into the year I had Clemson slipping record-wise as it was unlikely they'd be able to match LY's 7-1 record in games decided by seven points or less. They were 3-1 SU in such games the year prior. Don't forget though; last year they were upset by Pitt (as 21-point favorites) - at home.

Syracuse is an experienced team as they brought a FBS-high 19 returning starters back for HC Dino Babers, now in his second year here. Babers, who came over from Bowling Green (boy have they gone in the toilet since he left), was expected to immediately improve the offense and that's exactly what's transpired as the Orange come in averaging 32.0 PPG this year. They're only 3-3 SU mind you, but all three losses were by single digits and two were on the road against LSU and NC State. Last week, they overcame an early deficit to beat Pittsburgh 27-24 as three-point chalk. While it ended up being a close game (Pitt scored late TD), Syracuse put up 500 yards of total offense and had 10 more first downs. At 3-3 SU right now and with games left against Miami, Florida St and Louisville (all on the road), the Orange are going to have to pull at least one upset in order to make a bowl game. I'm not saying they'll pull that necessary upset, but this is obviously the biggest home game of the year and I expect them to play well. 10* Syracuse

10* Carolina (8:25 ET): This just might be the best matchup on the NFL Week 6 slate. I'm not convinced that Philadelphia or Carolina is the "team to beat" in the NFC right now, but both are primed to finish near the top of the standings. We've got a pair of 4-1 starts here and each is off an impressive Week 5 victory. The only difference is that Carolina (on the road) had to withstand a late, but ultimately fruitless, comeback attempt by Detroit. But they still won 27-24 for me as a slight underdog (were +120 in total yds). Meanwhile, there were no issues for Philadelphia in its 34-7 win over Arizona as 6.5-point favorites. That said, an underdog off a win by 21 or more points is typically not a good bet. Teams in that position have covered at just a 43.2% ATS rate since '05. Early betting had more tickets on the Eagles, but more money on the Panthers.

Cam Newton may have had a rough week off the field last week, but he looked great w/ the helmet and pads on in Detroit. So far, he's completing 63% of his pass attempts of 15+ yards, which would be a career-best. Remember this was the MVP two seasons ago. He was 6 of 7 on passes of 15+ yards w/ a TD pass LW vs. Detroit. The loss of TE Greg Olsen hasn't seemed to matter as Ed Dickson hauled in five passes for 175 yds a week ago. Overall, Newton is completing over 68% of his passes this year, which would also be a career best (credit Christian McCaffrey). This is an offense that just averaged 30 PPG in a pair of road wins, one of them at Foxboro. The defense is allowing an average of just 18.8 points and 274 yards per game, both of which have them in the top nine in the league. This is a really good team and as I'd expected, they're a lock to improve upon LY's disappointing 6-9-1 SU finish. 

Philadelphia is another team I expected to improve its record this year. They have a better scoring differential than the Panthers, but their YPG differential is roughly identical. Something that probably won't be talked about enough in the build to this one is the Eagles potentially being w/o stud O-lineman Lane Johnson. Carson Wentz had a career day LW vs. Arizona, but w/o Johnson (concussion), he's likely to decline - severely. Wentz's numbers and the Eagles' won-loss record for that matter are significantly worse when Johnson is not in the lineup (remember he was suspended for 10 games last year). They are 9-2 SU when Johnson plays and 2-8 when he does not and Wentz's TD-INT ratio takes a predictable hit in the games where Johnson doesn't play. Carolina's defense ranks third in the league w/ 17 sacks. The Eagles' defense may be allowing only 19.8 points per game, but they're 22nd in yards allowed (346). They could be w/o DT Fletcher Cox again (missed L2 games) and remember that on the back end, they still don't have CB Ronald Darby. 10* Carolina

8* South Alabama (8:00 ET): These teams had very different results their respective last times out, which was two Saturdays ago. Of course, Troy stunned the College Football universe by going into LSU and upsetting the heavily favored Bayou Bengals, 24-21 as 20.5-pt underdogs. Though the Trojans should be given plenty of credit for the biggest win in program history, they were outgained and the beneficiaries of four LSU turnovers. South Alabama, on the other hand, was on the wrong end of a bad beat at Louisiana Tech that same evening. Getting double digits, the Jaguars were down only one point entering the fourth quarter. Sadly, they were outscored 17-0 the rest of the way w/ the final TD allowed coming after they'd turned the ball over deep in their own territory, late. This is an in-state rivalry that USA, being the neophyte program, wants to make more relevant. I'll be taking the points here. 

South Alabama had a very interesting season last year. They beat both Mississippi State (on the road!) and San Diego State (who was ranked #19 at the time). However, they still finished only 6-7 SU after a loss in the Arizona Bowl to Air Force. Also, besides the two upsets, they covered only other game (finished 3-10 ATS). Right now, they have a long way to go before they can start thinking bowl game. The lone SU win this year came at the expense of a FCS program (Alabama A&M). Now, to be fair, the season opened w/ games against Ole Miss and Oklahoma State. But it's been the last two results that have proven to be less kind. Not only did they fall apart at La Tech, but in the Sun Belt opener, they fell (at home) to Idaho in double overtime, 29-23, giving up the game-tying TD w/ less than a minute to go in regulation.

Since South Alabama made the move from the FCS level in 2012, these teams have met four times. The underdog is a perfect 4-0 ATS w/ three of the games decided by seven points or less. That's what I'm looking for here. Troy clearly comes in a bit overvalued due to the historic upset of LSU. Coming off a 10-3 SU season, the Trojans are now 4-1 w/ four straight victories (lost opener at Boise State), but the last three have all been by five points or less. They are a team that I projected to regress in '17 and truthfully, an outright upset would not shock me this evening. Troy is just 4-9 ATS its L13 home games and 0-5 ATS off its previous five bye weeks. 8* South Alabama

8* Seattle (4:05 ET): While there's no debating that the team is much improved, I continue to be surprised by just how much the market has reacted to the Rams' surprising 3-1 (SU) start. This was a team, that when "look ahead lines" came out over the summer, was not supposed to be favored in any of its first 16 games! An injury to Colts QB Andrew Luck resulted in the line flipping for Week 1, however, and the Rams delivered a thunderous 46-9 beatdown in that game to kick off the Sean McVay era. Then, the Rams were favored in their next two games! They lost outright (here at home) to the Redskins in Week 2 though and then were "back doored" as a road favorite in a Thursday night game at San Francisco. An underdog for the first time LW, I took them and they delivered for me w/ an outright win at Dallas. Now they're back to being a favorite and against Seattle no less!

The Seahawks are 2-2 SU, having won both home games and lost both road games. While this is a road game (duh!), note the previous two were both "out East," to Green Bay and Tennessee. At least for this one, they get to stay in the Pacific Time Zone. Last week, it was "Seattle's turn" to blowout the Colts, winning 46-18 on Sunday Night Football. The 46 points scored nearly matched the team's point total from the first three games - combined. They outgained the Colts 477-237, largely on the back of a dominant second half where the defense gave up only a FG (and scored a TD itself) while Russell Wilson accounted for three touchdowns on offense. I hate to "overreact" to one result, but the bottom line here is that - coming into the season - I would never have expected Seattle to be a dog in this game, even though it's on the road. 

Remember that last season saw the Rams start 3-1, only to win just one more game the rest of the way. They're clearly poised for a better finish here in 2017, but I'm unconvinced they can step up in this - arguably their first "high profile" spot of the McVay regime. This is the first time the Rams are favored over the Seahawks since 2011, so while Seattle is 0-5 ATS its last five road games in the rivalry (four of those in St. Louis), that was the Rams "sneaking up on them" as underdogs. They won't be sneaking up here however as I look for the Seattle defensive line to really overwhelm the Rams' offensive line, affecting both the passing and running game. QB Jared Goff is shockingly completing 56% of his throws of 20+ yards, something I do NOT see continuing here against the "Legion of Boom." Under Jeff Fisher, the Rams were only known for a random upset of Seattle every once in a while, but nothing more. He was thankfully disposed and McVay clearly has the team trending in the right direction. But he won't be able to bring the surprise Fisher was known for during his tenure here, at least today. 8* Seattle

10* Cleveland (1:00 ET): It's admittedly a risk to make the worst team in the league your top pick for the week. But as ridiculous as it was for the Browns to be favored two weeks ago on the road at Indianpolis (lost 31-28), it's almost as ridiculous here to find the Jets as a pick 'em or favorite. It was the Jets, not the Browns, that came into the 2017 season as the biggest Super Bowl longshot. Shockingly, however, they have won two straight. First, it was a whitewashing of the Dolphins as 6-pt home underdogs (I took them there!). Then last week brought an overtime win (also at home) over the Jaguars, who were in the unusual spot of having no bye after playing in London (and the Jags were probably feeling a bit "too good" about themselves after a 44-7 win over the Ravens). 

That all being said, I'd still make Cleveland the favorite here. Yes, the team has just one win since the start of last season (1-19 SU overall!). They are only 5-15 ATS during that time as well. Eventually though, things have to turn. I will point out that - so far - the Browns have had to face three of the top 10 pass rushes in the league (all division foes). That's done rookie QB DeShone Kizer, who like most rookies holds onto the ball too long, no favors. But the Jets' pass rush has been virtually non-existent (2nd worst so far) and a run defense that was such a strength last year has allowed 175+ yards in three of four games this year. So don't be surprised to see the Browns have their best rushing day to date here and for Kizer to have his best game as a pro. Defensively, #1 overall draft choice Myles Garrett is set to finally debut. That should provide a big lift to that unit.

Coming into the year, you wouldn't have figured the Jets would be favored in any game, let alone one on the road. This line is currently hovering around a Pick 'em and could conceivably close with Cleveland as a favorite, but my point still stands. The Jets are getting too much respect from the market here, based on their B2B wins and Cleveland being 0-4 SU. The Jets have yet to top 20 points in regulation this season. I don't see them coming close to last week's stunning 256 yards from the run game. Matt Forte won't play again and on the other side of the ball, Kony Ealy is out as well. The Jets did win here last year for their fourth straight win and cover over Cleveland, but I don't see them making it two years in a row. The notion that the Jets are a "public side" in the year 2017 seems quite foolish. 10* Cleveland

8* Cincinnati (1:00 ET): Maybe what the Bengals needed was to just get out of Cincinnati. Or perhaps it was the change at offensive coordinator. Then again, playing the Browns will almost always make you look good. Regardless of what you want to say, the Bengals at least seem to be in better shape now than they were following B2B home losses to start the year where they failed to score a single TD (1st time since '39 that a team started the year w/ B2B home games and failed to score a TD). Bill Lazor, a Chip Kelly disciple, was made the new OC shortly thereafter and the team responded w/ a wire to wire cover at Green Bay (I had 'em!), though they did lose in overtime. Then came the first win of the year, 31-7 at Cleveland last week. Now they return to the "scene of the crime," looking to not only win for the 1st time at home this year, but score their 1st TD here. 

For the record, Buffalo was a team I was higher on than most coming into the season. I have an outstanding ticket on them to finish Over 6.5 wins and w/ them starting 3-1, that ticket is looking pretty good right now. The Bills are one of two teams (Chiefs) to be 4-0 ATS as they've pulled B2B upsets of Denver and Atlanta the last two weeks. But, go inside the boxscore from last week and you'll quickly find out they were quite fortunate to go in and beat the reigning NFC Champs on the road. They were outgained by 110 yards (-10 in first downs) and ran the ball at only 3.3 yards per carry. What won them the game was a +3 turnover margin, one of them (a fumble return) being directly converted into a touchdown. There were also two long (55+ yard!) Steven Hauschka field goals, a byproduct of playing indoors. 

Buffalo may be 3-1 SU, but they've been outgained by 22 yards per game. Compare that to Cincinnati, who is 1-3 SU, but +19 YPG. Going back to last season, the Bills' offense has typically struggled away from home, averaging only 17.9 PPG, which is way down from their 29.3 PPG average at home during the same time. Let's not be quick to forget their 9-3 loss at Carolina in Week 2. The Bengals' offense has scored 55 pts the L2 games and I just can't see them starting the year 0-3 at home. They, like the Bills, were a team that I earmarked for improvement this season as they were far better in 2016 than their 6-9-1 SU record showed. QB Andy Dalton has completed 81% of his pass attempts since Lazor became the OC at 8.7 YPA w/ a 6-0 TD-INT ratio. 8* Cincinnati

8* Carolina (1:00 ET): I thought the Lions were very fortunate to make the playoffs last year as they required EIGHT fourth quarter comebacks and didn't beat a single team w/ a winning record. Now in 2017, they've again produced a winning record via "smoke and mirrors." Sure, they are one play away from being 4-0 straight up, but note that they've beaten the 0-4 Giants and also a Vikings team that was w/o its starting QB and then lost its starting RB to injury. In Week 1, they were also trailing Arizona, who lost stud RB David Johnson to injury! They've faced one of the easier slates of defenses thus far and lead the league in turnover margin (+9) including +6 alone the last two games. The opponent this week (Carolina) is on a 6-2 ATS run as a dog after LW's impressive upset of the Patriots in Foxboro. I expect an outright win here by the Panthers.

The Lions' defense did next to nothing LW, gaining just 251 yards on 62 plays. But, fortunate for them, the Vikings turned it over three times and were not only w/o starting QB Sam Bradford, but RB Dalvin Cook went down with an in-game ACL injury. Note that Cook was the one who scored the Vikings' lone TD in the 14-7 final. The week prior, yes, they came within a yard of beating Atlanta. But they were severly outgained in that game, 428-324. Now, the injury bug has taken a big bite out of them. As many as seven starters are expected out for this game, three of them offensive lineman.  The other four are in the front seven on defense. That's in addition to WR Kenny Golladay and RB Dwayne Washington both already being ruled out. So, needless to say, this is not a healthy team coming into this Week 5 matchup. 

Carolina seemed to be trending down following an ugly 9-3 win over Buffalo and a home loss to New Orleans. But then they shocked everyone by going into Foxboro last week and beating the Patriots 33-30 on field goal as time expired. There was nothing phony about that win either as they outgained the Pats 444-373. They even managed to overcome a -2 turnover margin. Even after allowing 30 pts, the Panthers' defense still leads the NFC in scoring. Unlike Detroit, this team is relatively healthy right now (save for TE Greg Olsen being out). QB Cam Newton made some foolish remarks mid-week, but I don't think they'll be a distraction. The Lions have been outgained this season and following a season in which they were +3 in net upsets, I see the Panthers giving them a dose of their own medicine. Detroit can't run the ball (three games w/ < 100 yds rushing) while Carolina has held three of its four opponents below 80 yds over land. 8* Carolina

8* UNLV (10:45 ET): In last week's analysis on UNLV, I said that this was an undervalued team based on that embarrassing loss to Howard in the season opener. That loss, to a FCS opponent, set a new standard for upsets in College Football as the Rebels were 45-point favorites in the contest. Since then, however, the Rebs have gone 3-0 ATS. They've blown out both Idaho and San Jose State here in the desert and stayed within the number at Ohio State. Saturday night's game will carry a very special meaning at Sam Boyd Stadium considering the tragic events that took place in Las Vegas just last weekend. I expect a very inspired effort here from the home dog and an outright win is NOT out of the realm of possibility. Take the points. 

Looking at the opponent, San Diego State looks to be in a pretty tough spot. They are in off a pretty fortunate 34-28 win over Northern Illinois where they were outgained by nearly 200 yards. They were able to pull out the win, at home mind you, thanks to forcing four turnovers and scoring two non-offensive touchdowns. While this is the Mountain West Conference opener for both teams here, I think it's fair to say that the Aztecs could be inclined to look past UNLV and towards next week's home date w/ MWC standard-bearer Boise State. Even though the Broncos aren't what they "once were," that's a big game for SDSU as they try and claim conference supremacy. For them, this game might just be a look ahead and that makes them very vulnerable as a road favorite.

Last year's meeting w/ SD State did not go well for UNLV as they were held to season lows in points (7), total yards (122) and first downs (9). They lost 26-7 as 15.5-pt road dogs. This year's team has a far more explosive offense (nine starters returned) as they've now hit 40+ points three times (Ohio State game the only exception). Last week, they went for 548 total yards in the 41-13 thrashing of San Jose State that I was on. It was also their third game going for at least that many yards (again OSU the exception). There is good skill position talent here w/ Lexington Thomas at RB and Devonte Boyd at WR. The past three seasons have seen the Rebels go 4-2 - both straight up and against the spread - as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 pts. That includes an outright win at Idaho back in Week 2. 8* UNLV

10* Arizona (8:00 ET): Arizona basically gave a game away to Utah two weeks ago as they outgained the Utes 448-341, but turned the ball over FIVE times, the last one being the most costly. Trailing by six w/ less than three minutes to go, the Wildcats had the ball at the Utah 20-yard line only for QB Brandon Dawkins to fumble the ball away. It was a real "blown opportunity" considering Utah's starting QB left the game in the second quarter due to injury. Under normal circumstances, I might question how the Wildcats respond their next time out, but fortunately here they've had more than a full week off to recover and prepare for Colorado. Rich Rod's team was not particularly good against the spread (2-10) last year, so to me, there's some inevitable progression set to take place. Take the points here.

Colorado was in the Pac 12 Championship Game a year ago, but calls for them to regress in 2017 were almost universal. Sure enough, they've opened conference play 0-2 SU w/ losses to Washington and UCLA. The Pac 12 Title Game rematch vs. UW went worse than expected w/ the Buffs losing 37-10 as 10-pt home dogs. Colorado did score first (first quarter TD), but after that it was all Huskies (37-3). As disappointing a result as that was, last week against UCLA was probably worse. The Bruins came in a tattered bunch, off B2B losses where they'd surrended over 100 points. But even though they moved the ball, the Buffs could never get the lead in the second half and fell 27-23 as touchdown underdogs. 

Last year, Arizona dropped a game in Tucson, 49-24 to Colorado as 16-point dogs. That may seem like a pretty lopsided affair, but Arizona actually had the edge in total yards only to have to constantly settle for field goals, three of which were missed. Note that the Wildcats had won the four prior meetings. What do I feel will be different from last year? How about the Wildcats' defense, which held both Houston and Utah in relative check? After allowing 38.3 points and 469 yards per game last season, those numbers are down to 22.2 and 376 so far this season.  The Colorado offense is in the bottom half of the league offensively in scoring, passing, rushing and total yardage. Arizona has shown it can run the ball this year (200 yards vs. Utah), so look for them to put points on the board here against a Colorado defense that was gashed by the run against Washington and the pass by UCLA. 10* Arizona

    

8* Boston College (7:15 ET): There are a number of games this week where the driving force behind my play is that I don't like the situation at all from the opponent's perspective. Such is the case here w/ Va Tech, who was crushed last week (at home) by Clemson and has an open date on deck. After suffering their first loss of the season in such a high-profile spot, I think it's right to question how the Hokies will respond. Typically, they do respond well (6-1 SU off an ACC loss L3 seasons), but the only other "true" road game they've had to play prior to this was at lowly East Carolina. This is the first time they've had to leave the region and B.C. has the edge of having played an easy game last week (beat Central Mich 28-8) after their own loss to Clemson. I'll take the points here.

Boston College has played a very challenging schedule to this point. They opened w/ a road win over Northern Illinois, which now looks a lot more impressive than it did back then. (NIU won at Nebraska). The next three games were against Wake Forest, Notre Dame and Clemson, all losses, but I though the Eagles competed a lot harder in all three games than the final score indicates. Four turnovers killed them against Wake Forest, turning what was basically an evenly played game into a lopsided final. Then the Clemson game was actually tied 7-7 (on the road!) going into the fourth quarter. So don't let that 34-7 final fool you either. Last week saw B.C. finally get back into the win column w/ a commanding 28-8 win over Central Michigan here in Chesnut Hill. Special teams played a big factor in the win, but they also ran for a season-best 224 yards. Fortunately, freshman A.J. Dillon is fine (left LW's game) and will play here after his first 100-yard game.

While B.C. was able to enter the fourth quarter tied at Clemson before eventually wilting, Va Tech couldn't get within two TD's of the defending National Champs in the second half, even at home. The fact that the Hokies outgained the Tigers is a little misleading even in the face of a -3 turnover margin. They actually trailed by THREE touchdowns for a majority of the second half. I really can't understate what a discouraging loss that had to be for the Hokies as they went in thinking upset w/ the ESPN Gameday cameras present. Now that they've been humbled and have an open date to look forward to, I see them failing to separate here against a team that typically is strong on the defensive side of the ball. 8* Boston College

8* UAB (4:00 ET): Returning from a two-year hiatus, UAB football has struggled early on in 2017, just as you might have expected. Well, they're actually 2-2 SU, but it's been a pretty weak schedule to this point. Two weeks ago, they lost a wild 46-43 game at North Texas as 10.5-pt underdogs. Twice they rallied back from down two scores (30-14 and then 43-29) only to lose "at the gun" on a last-second field goal. After tying the game 43-43, the Blazers allowed UNT return man Evan Johnson to take the ball to nearly midfield, setting up a relatively easy game-winning drive. But they've had a week to recover (off last week) and it's Homecoming at Legion Field this week. This will be a motivated dog. Take the points.

Louisiana Tech has burned me a couple of times this year, last week in particular. Laying almost two touchdowns, they led South Alabama by just a single point going into the fourth quarter. But they would go on to outscore the Jaguars 17-0 in the final 12:17 to "steal" the cover. The final score came w/ 3:17 to go and was a 27-yd TD run, a one-play drive set up by USA turning it over on downs. I'll go ahead and tip my cap to you if you were a La Tech backer in that one, but I'll also question what the Bulldogs may have left here after the late surge vs. South Alabama and the two preceding games both being decided by one point (one win, one loss). Last week was the 1st time they were asked to lay points to a FBS foe this year and this will be the first time they've been asked to do so on the road. There's a much-needed open date next week, which the players may already be looking forward to. 

To clarify something I said at the top, yes, UAB didn't even have a team in 2015 or '16. But they did hold scrimmages last year and Bill Clark, who took over before 2014 (led team to a 6-6 record), remained w/ the program. After opening w/ a 38-7 win over Alabama A&M, they were "blown out" at Ball State (lost 51-31), but actually had the edge in total yds in that game, 504-377. It was a close game that was broken open late due to a kickoff return for a TD and some untimely turnovers. Then came a nice win here at home over Coastal Carolina where the Blazers led the whole way. So this team has really played pretty well, all things considered, in the four games so far. As for La Tech, after three straight tight games and a visit to Mississippi State, I just have to wonder what's "left in the tank." Not enough to cover a double digit spread on the road, in my estimation. 8* UAB

8* Oregon State (4:00 ET): Attrition (no bye weeks) was the most predominantly cited factor for USC inevitably coming up short in its bid for the College Football Playoff, but little did we know it would begin to take hold so early in the season. The "Men of Troy" finally came up short on the scoreboard last Friday, losing up in Pullman to Washington State by a score of 30-27 as five-point favorites. While it may have been their first SU loss of the season, it was by no means the first time they'd struggled and that's reflected in the team's 1-4 mark at the pay window. Really, the only game where they looked "good" was against Stanford. They struggled to get by Western Michigan, Cal and Texas, not pulling away until late against the first two and needing multiple OT's to get by the latter. This looks to be a terrible spot for Clay Helton's team as they are laying a massive number to desperate and winless Oregon State. I'll take the points.

Now Oregon State is 0-5 ATS, tied w/ BYU for the worst such mark nationally. They were blown out last week at home, losing 42-7 to unbeaten Washington. It was their fourth 30+ point loss of the season, which is terrible considering Beavers fans were thinking bowl game coming into the season. Now they'll just take a win. Unfortunately, I don't see them being favored in any game the rest of the way. So the fans will have to settle for a cover here. Sure, they've lost 23 straight visits to the Coliseum and 15 straight on the road overall. But as a dog of more than three touchdowns, they are 3-0 ATS the L3 seasons. Nationwide, teams are 76-45 ATS when getting three touchdowns or more this season. 

USC was down three offensive linemen in last week's loss to Wazzu, so they have an excuse for losing. But I can see the players not taking this game very seriously as there's a much bigger home game on deck against Utah, who may come in undefeated. Two of the three offensive lineman that were out against Washington State may again be out here. We know starting guard Viane Talamaivo won't play as he's done for the year w/ a torn pec. Right tackle Chuma Edoga hasn't practiced all week. Getting back to the pointspread, this will be - easily - the most points they've had to lay in any game in the Clay Helton era. While the players will be justifiably angry after losing last week, I don't think that anger carries over into a blowout here. Not w/ a bigger game looming. Also, Oregon State has to eventually cover, right? 8* Oregon State

8* Appalachian State (3:30 ET): New Mexico State is currently tied w/ SMU for the best ATS record in the nation (5-0) and one of only eight teams left that has covered the pointspread in all of its games (six others all either 4-0 or 3-0 ATS). They call the pointspread "the great equalizer" for a reason and in the case of NMSU, it's certainly helped, as they're only 2-3 SU. Last week, they just barely snuck inside the number against Arkansas, losing 42-24 as 18.5-pt chalk. (Ironically, the Hogs are still an "0-fer" against the number). Admittedly, that was the first time all year that the Aggies were "blown out," but I don't like their chances here against a rested Appalachian State team that came into the season favored to win the Sun Belt. Consider that in LY's reg season finale, App State beat NMSU 37-7 as 19-pt ROAD favorites. Not enough has changed in 10 months time to justify this price swing. Lay the points. 

App State has lost twice already, but both times were to Power 5 foes. They were a trendy underdog call in the season opener at Georgia, but lost there 31-10. That loss was followed by a pair of expected wins over Savannah State and Texas State. Then came a rare home game vs. a P5 foe, Wake Forest, and the game was close. Unfortunately though, despite a 494-344 edge in total yards, the Mountaineers came out on the wrong end of a 20-19 final (did cover as 5.5-pt dogs, however). They had a 27-18 first down edge as well, but what would have been a game-winning field goal (w/ five seconds left) was blocked. I have to think the players have been "chomping at the bit" (to get back on the field) following such a close call and to me, NMSU is in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Appalachian State was playing for a share of the regular season SBC Title in last year's meeting and took no prisoners, scoring the game's first 17 and final 20 points. They outgained the Aggies 604-240! Most of the key contributors from that blowout victory returned for this season. Granted, New Mexico State is much improved this season and close losses to Arizona State and Troy now look even better considering those teams have gone on to beat Oregon and LSU, respectively. But the bye week was big for App State as they can prepare for the NMSU offense, which is almost entirely reliant on the pass. From a scheduling standpoint, this is not a great spot for the underdog as it's their second straight road game and fourth in six games. Meanwhile, it's Homecoming in Boone and I think the alumni are rewarded w/ a big win and cover Sat afternoon. 8* Appalachian State

8* Kent State (3:30 ET): I absolutely hate this spot for Northern Illinois. Yes, they did outgain San Diego State last week (417-263), but a -4 turnover margin ultimately doomed them to a 34-28 loss. SDSU had TWO non-offensive TD's, one an INT return, the other a kickoff return to start the game. NIU did at least leave w/ the cash though, covering as 9.5-pt underdogs. That improves them to 4-0 ATS and the week prior they went to Nebraska and won straight up, 21-17 despite a rather significant DISadvantage in total yds. Three of their four games thus far have been decided by six points or fewer and they've been a dog all three times against FBS competition. That's what makes this line "look a little large" from my perspective. Off B2B wild non-conference road games, I'm not sure this MAC opener will have their full attention, even on Homecoming weekend. Kent State may not be good, but they're at least battle-tested (played at both Clemson & Louisville already!) and that should have them prepared to stay within the number. Take the points.

While NIU has played mostly close games, Kent has mostly been on the WRONG end of some blowouts. They lost to Clemson & L'ville by a combined score of 98-6, though they did actually cover against the latter thanks to a 42-point spread! They've also been shutout by a much improved Marshall team, 21-0. I should point out, however, that all three teams that blew out the Golden Flashes are all higher ranked (in my own power ratings) compared to Northern Illinois. Last week, Kent lost 27-13 at Buffalo and like NIU, they outgained the opposition 444-377. It was a game that saw only ONE TD scored in the second half (by Buffalo) and the Bulls also benefited in the 1st half by getting to start a drive inside the Kent 10-yd line.

These teams met in LY's regular season finale w/ NIU winning 31-21 as a six-point road favorite. As you can see, it's been a pretty significant swing in the market to now have them favored by over three touchdowns, even after factoring in the change in venue. Over the L3 seasons, Kent St has covered both times it has been a road dog of +21.5 to +31. Furthermore, nationwide, we've seen teams getting at least 21 points go 76-45 ATS this season. It's not as if Northern Illinois' possesses a dominant offense. They are averaging only 26.7 PPG and 5.1 yards per play w/ opponents topping both of those averages. Three years ago, which is the last time Kent State came to DeKalb, they easily covered a similar spread as they lost only 17-14. 8* Kent State