10* USC (9:00 ET): These Pac 12 South rivals already have a common opponent and that's BYU. Each team had to go to Provo and both were listed as a 5-point favorite. Utah won their game, 30-12, while USC lost outright 30-27. So the Utes should be the obvious call here, right? (Especially seeing as we had them in the win over BYU). "Not so fast, my friend!" An interesting tidbit from those games is that the two teams averaged a near identical number of yards per play (5.75 vs. 5.72). Southern Cal may have lost, but did so in overtime. They also led in the 4th quarter, but ultimately could not overcome a -3 turnover differential. (Note: Utah was +3 in TO's in its game vs. BYU). With the home team having covered seven of eight matchups since Utah became a Pac 12 member, we'll take the points w/ the Trojans.

With Southern Cal having lost QB J.T. Daniels to a season-ending ACL injury (in the 1st game), one would naturally think Utah has the edge offensively coming into this one. I'm not so sure that's the case. Even with QB Huntley and RB Moss returning, the Utes aren't likely to put up a ton of points on a consistent basis as they play at a very slow pace. USC has found a replacement for Daniels in freshman Kedon Slovis, who completed 28 of 33 pass attempts for 377 yards in the 45-20 win over Stanford, which was the last time the Trojans played at the Coliseum. Slovis wasn't quite as effective last week in his first career road start, but still completed 24 of 34 passes for 281 yards. Don't think Utah will simply be able to "outscore" USC in this one. 

I mentioned earlier that the home team is on a 7-1 ATS run in this rivalry. That also includes six straight wins by an average of 9 PPG. Our numbers actually indicate USC should be slightly favored here, even though Utah has covered the last three matchups, including a one-point loss here in LA two years ago. But the Utes have not won straight up at the Coliseum since 1916! Trojans HC Clay Helton has not been good as underdog in the past and his seat will only get warmer were his team to lose again this week. He's got road games at Washington and Notre Dame on deck, so expect an "all hands on deck" approach to this Friday night home game. 10* USC

10* Jacksonville (8:20 ET): So much for home field advantage in these Thursday night NFL games. The road team has pulled an upset each of the first two weeks w/ Green Bay beating Chicago and Tampa Bay beating Carolina. But if an upset were to happen for a third straight time to open the season, this time it would be by the home team. Jacksonville comes in as a short home dog as they are 0-2 on the season following losses to Kansas City and Houston, both of whom were division winners last year. Something else to consider is that the Jags have been swept each of the last two years by the Titans. They will come into this game highly motivated and are our choice. Take the points. 

One of the big mistakes we made last week was overrating Tennessee's Week 1 performance in Cleveland. Sure, the Titans won that game 43-13. But they were only up two points late in the 3Q before the Browns imploded. Tennessee was actually outgained in that contest (346-339), but was fortunate to be +3 in turnovers. They are now +5 in turnovers on the season, but lost LW to the Colts 19-17. Truth be told, we were NOT high on Tennessee this year, but chose to take them last week as it seemed all the stars had aligned w/ the other three AFC South teams all losing in Week 1 and two of them seemingly having serious issues at the QB position. That line of thinking was obviously a mistake. 

Losing Nick Foles to a broken clavicle in Week 1 seemed like a death blow to the Jaguars' 2019 season. But backup Gardner Minshew II seems like he'll be a capable replacement. So far, Minshew has completed almost 70% of his pass attempts and he very nearly pulled off a comeback in Houston last week. (The Jags lost that game 13-12 as HC Doug Marrone elected to go for two and the win instead of kicking the extra point and forcing OT.) Moving forward, Tennessee probably isn't going to be as fortunate w/ turnovers as they've been the first two games. Even though he has asked to be traded, Jags DB Jalen Ramsey is going to play tonight. Don't be surprised if he has a good game and it's the Jags forcing some TO's against often error-prone Titans QB Marcus Mariota. It's a must-win game for the 0-2 Jags Thursday night. We'll back 'em. 10* Jacksonville

10* NY Jets (8:20 ET): The Jets would certainly appear "up against it" here as starting QB Sam Darnold is out (mono) and will miss a significant period of time. They also have injuries on the defensive side of the ball as well. But in a battle of desperate 0-1 team, taking the points still seems like the logical way to go here, especially the in the wake of the line move when it was announced Darnold would be out. As we saw last week in a 43-13 home loss to the Titans, Cleveland may very well be overhyped. There's a lot of pressure here on a team that hasn't been a road favorite of more than five points since Bill Belichick coached here in 1995. Take the points. 

Speaking of former Browns' coaches, Gregg Williams guided the team to a 5-3 (SU) finish LY, which played a major role in the team getting so much attention in the offseason. Williams is now the DC for the Jets and finds himself in the headlines this week, not just b/c he's facing his former team. New Browns WR Odell Beckham Jr called Williams out for instructing his players to "injure" him in a 2017 preseason game (when OBJ was w/ the Giants and Williams was DC in Cleveland). This is probably much ado about nothing, but Williams being the Jets' DC now does give his team somewhat of an edge as he certainly knows the Browns' tendencies on offense. Even short-handed, look for the Jets defense to play well Monday night. 

As for the offense, the Jets should lean heavily on Le'Veon Bell, who had a nice return LW w/ 92 total yards on 23 touches. Bell did have a MRI Wednesday (shoulder) but checked out. The Jets should have won Week 1 at home vs. Buffalo as they were gifted a +4 TO margin in the 1H, but blew a 16-0 lead. Speaking of turnovers, Cleveland imploded in the 4Q LW vs. Tennessee w/ Baker Mayfield tossing three picks. They went from down 15-13 late in the third to 43-13 by the end of the game. It probably wasn't as bad as the final scored showed, but I come back to the fact that the Browns being favored on the road (let alone by this much) still doesn't "feel right." They've failed to cover four of the previous five times they've been favored (were -5.5 LW), losing three of those games outright. 10* NY Jets

10* Tennessee (1:00 ET): When handicapping the NFL, one must be careful to not overreact to single game or week. Case in point, we were not particularly high on the Titans coming into the year. But it's hard to disregard just how well things "broke" for Tennessee in Week 1. Not only did they go out on the road and destroy a clearly overhyped Cleveland team, 43-13, but look at what's going on in the rest of their division (AFC South). The other three teams lost and two of them (Indy, Jacksonville) now have serious issues at QB. Honestly, right now, it's hard NOT to make Tennessee the favorite to win the AFC South. 

The Colts are still trying to get over the shock of Andrew Luck's sudden retirement last month. Certainly, they can expect little sympathy from any future opponent. But especially Tennessee, who Luck tormented for the better part of this decade. Luck was drafted in 2012. Since that time, the Colts are 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS vs. the Titans. Even that record is misleading though. Both Tennessee SU victories came in 2017, the year Luck missed due to injury. With Luck out of the picture, the Titans know that now is the time to seize the reigns of the division. Here, they are getting the Colts in the second of B2B road games, which is a tricky spot to open the year. Since 2015, teams that open the season w/ B2B road games have gone a money-burning 1-14 ATS, losing by almost 8.5 points per game. 

Meanwhile, this is Tennessee's home opener. They've gone 12-4 SU in Nashville the past two seasons and come in with plenty of confidence after last week's strong effort on the road where they appeared strong on both sides of the ball. Indianapolis fought valiantly against the Chargers in Week 1, but ultimately came up short in OT. Jacoby Brissett has been thrust into the starting QB role and ironically he was the starter for both losses two years ago to the Titans. Also of concern in Indy is kicker Adam Vinateri, who missed three kicks Sunday, essentially costing his team the game. Love the spot here for the Titans as they aren't going to pass on an opportunity to kick the Colts while they're down. 10* Tennessee

8* NY Giants (1:00 ET): Teams that start 1-0 typically have difficulty sustaining "momentum" (I'll always hate that word!) when they have to hit the road in Week 2, going a money-burning 5-18 ATS in that role since 2016. Taking it a step further, when the team is playing the second of B2B road games to open the year, they are 1-14 ATS (since '15), losing by an average of 8.4 PPG. Now this particular situation is a bit unique w/ Buffalo as they're actually playing in MetLife Stadium for a second consecutive week! They came back to beat the Jets last week, 17-16, erasing a 16-0 hole they'd dug themselves thanks to FOUR 1st half turnovers. But I can't see them pulling off the "New York sweep" here as I remain bearish on their 2019 fortune. 

The Giants weren't as lucky as the Bills in Week 1 as they ran into a revamped Cowboys offense and got blown out 35-17. The way they defended Dallas' new RPO-heavy look was reminiscent of something you'd probably see in a backyard football game! But the good news is that the Bills don't have the same level of talent as the Cowboys. Also interesting is that the Giants' offense actually gained 470 total yards last week (7.2 yards per play!), exactly 100 more than the Bills did in their victory. The disparate results boiled down to efficiency, particularly in the red zone where the G-Men failed to score at all in two of their four chances. 

It is important to remember that the Bills trailed the Jets 16-0 midway through the third quarter last week. At the time, QB Josh Allen had already turned the ball over four times (2 INTs/2 fumbles) and the offense had just 155 total yards. But incredibly, they would more than double that yardage total on the next three drives, scoring 17 points and pulling off a shocking comeback. Really, the Bills had no business winning that game. They also benefited from two missed Jets' kicks, an extra point and a field goal. Eli Manning is 7-0-1 ATS as a dog vs. the AFC East in his career, including a couple of memorable Super Bowl upsets you "may" remember. 8* NY Giants

8* San Francisco (1:00 ET): Interestingly enough, the same trend we cited as a reason to fade Buffalo is applicable here to the 49ers. They too opened their season w/ an "ugly" road win, beating the Buccaneers 31-17 despite being outgained. So what's the difference here w/ the Niners? Well, in the interest of full disclosure, I'm a lot higher on them than the market seems to be right now! My own personal power ratings have them as a field goal favorite for this game, which is against what I feel is one of the worst teams in the league, Cincinnati. Buck the trend here as the 49ers "shock the world" and open their season w/ B2B road wins out East!

The Bengals turned in a game effort LW in Seattle, outgaining the Seahawks 429-232, but still coming up a point short (lost 21-20). I think a lot of people are going to see how close that game was and get fooled into thinking Cincy might be some kind of a threat on a weekly basis. Don't fall into that trap. While the Bengals should be commended for staying close in a game few, if any, expected them to win (they closed +9), I don't see this team winning very many games in 2019. They have a 1st year HC (Zac Taylor) who inherited a roster that peaked several years ago. I'm not convinced the "improvements" we saw on both sides of the ball LW are any sign of things to come.

Meanwhile, all of my key indicators are pointing up for San Francisco this season. Last year, the team was dead last in turnover margin at -25 as they took the ball away only SEVEN times the entire season (including just TWO INT's)! That's a number that has a way of reverting back to the mean (league average), year to year. Already there are encouraging signs in that department as the Niners picked off THREE passes last week alone (see how that works?) and returned two for touchdowns! On offense, QB Jimmy Garoppolo is back and while his numbers from LW left a lot to be desired, note the Niners offense had TWO touchdowns negated due to penalties. To offset the travel, the team decided to stay out East this week and practice in Ohio. Smart move. Yes, they have injuries at RB, but so do the Bengals w/ Joe Mixon out. I look for the Niners to pull out a close one here. 8* San Francisco 

8* Florida State (7:30 ET): It's "put up or shut up" time for Willie Taggart and Florida State. The Seminoles were supposed to be improved in 2019 after going 5-7 SU LY, their 1st losing season since 1976! But so far, there hasn't been much sign of that. It started w/ an outright loss to Boise State in Week 1, a spot where we faded the 'Noles as the circumstances surrounding that game (date/time change due to Hurricane Dorian) made it seem like a real "leap of faith" (at least in our eyes) that they should be laying so many points. Still, even though we were on Boise State, we were stunned to see them shut out FSU in the 2H and come back from a DD deficit. It almost went from bad to worse LW against LA Monroe, but the 'Noles were able to escape with a 45-44 OT win. 

Virginia now seems to be the trendy pick to win the ACC Coastal (FSU is in the Atlantic w/ Clemson), which seems wide open now w/ Miami off to an 0-2 start. The Cavaliers won 8 games LY, their most in a season since 2011. They've already won conference game, opening the year by beating Pitt on the road, 30-14 (were 2.5-pt chalk). It was an even easier time LW w/ FCS William & Mary as the Hoos prevailed 52-17. Yet it sure is odd to see Virginia favored over Florida State. It's been decades since that was the case. Remember LY they were favored at Va Tech (who they still haven't beaten in 15 years) and lost the game outright. 

Maybe there is a changing of the landscape in the ACC, but it's tough to ignore the fact Florida State is 14-3 SU its L17 meetings vs. Virginia w/ all but one of the wins coming by double digits. The average margin of victory has been 24.6 PPG. While the pressure is definitely on Taggart in Tallahassee, the Seminoles have led their two games 31-19 and 24-7 at the half. Now they're underdogs for the 1st time. There won't be any kind of second half letdown this time and we're taking the points. 8* Florida State

8* Auburn (7:00 ET): Kent State is going to be very bad this year. You may already guessed or even know that, but it is essential to this play. The bottom of the MAC just isn't ready to be competitive on a national platform such as this. We saw an example of that last week with our play on Wisconsin, who annihilated Central Michigan 61-0. Well, Auburn is probably every bit as good as Wisconsin and even though both games saw them fail to score enough points to even cover this spread, look for this to be the Tigers' coming out party. Lay the big number.

Ironically, Kent State's QB Woody Barrett is an Auburn transfer. Perhaps it will be nice for Barrett to see some of his former teammates, but once the game gets going he may very well regret his decision to change sides. The Golden Flashes have yet to do much offensively as they put up only 200 total yards in the season-opening 30-7 loss to Arizona State. But losing that game was to be expected as they were 24-pt road dogs. Ironically, in victory last week, they may have been even less impressive. They needed OT to get by FCS Kennesaw State 26-23. Kent was only a 4.5-pt favorite in the game, which says a lot about the state of the program, and needed a late FG just to force OT. They were outgained by 100 yards (-7 FD's) and Kennesaw State is hardly a top tier FCS school.

The jump in class here is about as steep as it gets for the Golden Flashes. Auburn had the "miracle" win to start the year over Oregon and then a less than stellar showing last week vs. Tulane. They will be looking for that proverbial "pound of flesh" and Kent State happens to be an ideal candidate. The Flashes are 0-14 SU all-time vs. the SEC, losing by an average of 37 PPG. They have allowed an average of 211 rush yards the first two games, which means this is the spot where the Auburn offense finally gets going. They can name the score here as they get ready for the SEC gauntlet. 8* Auburn 

10* Iowa (4:00 ET): I know that Iowa State is at home, off a bye and hasn't beaten Iowa in five years. But they're going to have to wait at least another year in Ames to hold the "coveted" Cy-Hawk Trophy. We were on Iowa in this matchup last year and they came through w/ an "ugly" 13-3 win in Iowa City. They're better in 2019 while you can't say the same for Iowa State. Look for no further than the Cyclones nearly losing the opener two weeks ago to FCS Northern Iowa, needing triple overtime to get by 29-26 as 20.5-point favorites. Now they take on the premier program in the state. Lay the points. 

Iowa is 2-0 w/ wins over Miami OH (38-14) and Rutgers (30-0). I thought last week's Big 10 opener couldn't have gone much better. What promises to be a good defense held the Scarlet Knights to just 125 total yards and two of the last three years they've held ISU to just a field goal. Remember that for LY's game, Iowa State was also off a bye, an unexpected one, as their season opener vs. South Dakota State had been cancelled. The Hawkeyes have won nine straight non-conference games, going 6-3 ATS in the process. They are also 17-2 SU their L19 games as a favorite, going 12-6-1 ATS. That includes 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS on the road. Perhaps the best news for Iowa coming into this year's matchup though is how their number of yards per play on offense is up significantly - from 5.44 to 6.27. 

I've seen a lot of people talk about how Iowa will struggle to run the ball in this game. Well, how about the other side of that equation? Iowa State ran for only 25 yards on 19 carries in LY's game and that was w/ David Montgomery as RB. Montgomery is now off to the NFL and Iowa's defense has allowed just 143 yards rushing - total - in its two games. While ISU's win over Northern Iowa was their seventh in a row at home (tying a school record), it was ugly as they could score only one TD in regulation. Both teams came into the year ranked, but only one (Iowa obviously) deserved to be and they deserve to be far bigger favorite for this rivalry matchup. 10* Iowa

8* Michigan State (4:00 ET): The Big 10 would appear to be quite loaded this year. I've got six teams in my Top 20. We're already playing one of them (Penn State) elsewhere in the 3-pack and here we'll also be laying double digits w/ another conference power, that being Michigan State. Sure, this play "smells" awfully similar to last week's misfire w/ Washington over Cal. It's a revenge spot for the favorite, but with one significant caveat. In this instance, the underdog (Arizona State) is traveling cross-country. We took the Sun Devils in LY's meeting, but not here. Lay the points. 

When Herm Edwards was hired to the coach at Arizona State, the jury was definitely out. But, ironically, it was the win over Michigan State in the 2nd week of last year that silenced the doubters. As mentioned, we were on ASU in that game as it was a late night start in hot Tempe. Edwards hired a good coaching staff around him, but a big difference between this year and last is the personnel on the field. Last year, it was a multi-year starter at QB (Manny Wilkins) throwing to one of the top receivers in the country (N'Keal Henry). Both are gone and this time the Sun Devils have a true frosh (Jayden Daniels) making his first career road start. The early returns on this ASU offense haven't been great as they've put up just 49 points against Kent State and Sacramento State. Last week's lone TD came w/ just 4:42 remaining on a 72-yard pass play. By the way, the Sun Devils' offensive line has been shaky as well.

Of course, it wasn't necessarily the offense that won the game for ASU last year. It was a 16-13 game where the defense held Sparty to just 2.3 YPC.  But Michigan State didn't have much trouble moving the ball, by land or through the air, last week against Western Michigan. They rolled up 582 total yards in the 51-17 win, including 251 on the ground. Remember that Michigan State was really hurt by injuries last year and easily could have finished better than 7-6. They're a much more experienced group this year and get revenge against Arizona State here. 8* Michigan State

10* Tulsa (3:30 ET): We've already seen Oklahoma State cover one double digit spread on the road as they went to Corvallis to open the season and beat Oregon State 52-36 as 13.5-pt chalk. But w/ this defense, we're not sure they're built to do that very often. The Pokes will be improved in 2019 after a string of 10-win seasons (three in a row) was broken last year (went 7-6) due to a bunch of upsets. They have beaten Tulsa all three times under Gundy by an average of 33 PPG. But this Tulsa team is a bit better and that Cowboys defense remains suspect. This is also Tulsa's home opener. Take the points.

Oklahoma State also has some bigger fish to fry, namely next week's Big 12 opener in Austin. That's a game that's been decided by a field goal three of the last four years (all OSU wins). But for Tulsa, this is an in-state rivalry they'll treat w/ the utmost importance. For Oklahoma State, it's hardly Bedlam. I mentioned earlier that Tulsa is 0-3 vs. Gundy-led OSU teams and none of the games have been particularly close. Well, this is the Cowboys first trip East since 2011. It's a big deal for the Golden Hurricane. This is an experienced team w/ an underrated defense that played a lot of good teams close last year, including Texas, whom they only lost to by 7 (as 22-pt dogs) in Austin. 

Tulsa has already played Michigan State, who they lost to 28-7 in Week 1. While the Golden Hurricane were held to a frighteningly low yardage total (just 80 due to sacks!), that was an odd game. Michigan State scored five times in the second quarter, but one was a defensive TD and another was a safety. The three offensive scores, all field goals, came on drives that totaled ZERO yards. So Tulsa's D really did a good job against a superior opponent. Last week, they blew out San Jose State 34-16 w/ 539 total yds as they discovered the run game. In two games, Oklahoma State's defense has yielded an average of 164 rush YPG. Look for this to be a surprisingly close game. 10* Tulsa

8* Penn State (12:00 ET): It's only been two games, but it's hard not to like what James Franklin and Penn State are doing. The metrics sure do love them as the Nittany Lions have outscored their two opponents 124-20. Sure, one opponent was an FCS school (Idaho) and they started slow last week against Buffalo (trailed 10-7 at halftime!). But when you start slow and still win 45-13, covering a 31-point spot to boot, that probably means you're a pretty talented football team. And talented in precisely what PSU is. I'll gladly lay the points in this Noon ET kickoff in Happy Valley. 

Pitt is coming off a pretty dominant 20-10 win over Ohio last Saturday in what was a really early kick (11 AM local time). The Panthers did finish w/ more than a 2:1 edge in total yards (481-212), but it's obviously a big step up in class this week as they hit the road to face a Power 5 opponent. It's a step up in class they haven't been able to handle under HC Pat Narduzzi as they're 0-3 ATS the L3 years, losing by a combined 64 pts in the previous two. In its last four games vs. P5 opponents, Pitt has scored a grand total of just 40 points. They have more turnovers (6) than touchdowns (4) in those games and have failed to gain a first down on half of their drives! 

That futile run against P5 opponents, including the season-opening loss to Virginia where the Panthers could only muster 14 pts and were completely shutout in the second half. It's a better defense that they'll be facing here and Franklin isn't shy about "pouring it on" late either. Penn State is 22-3 SU its last 25 games and has covered the spread in 16 of those games. They are also 12-4 ATS the L16 games at Beaver Stadium. Last year, this game was 51-6 and that was in Pittsburgh. It certainly doesn't help that the Panthers are banged up along the defensive line going into this matchup. 8* Penn State

8* Arkansas State (12:00 ET): Going against #3 Georgia might sound like a risky proposition, however, might the Bulldogs be a bit "sleepy" in this early kickoff Saturday in Athens? They've got a much bigger game on deck (Notre Dame) next Saturday and certainly the players are feeling pretty good about themselves right now following wins over Vandy (30-6) and Murray State (63-17) to start the season. We're obviously getting a lot of points in this matchup and that scenario hasn't exactly treated UGA well under Kirby Smart as he's just 7-11 ATS as a home favorite, including 2-5 ATS vs. Group of Five teams. Georgia has also failed to cover four of the last five times it's been asked to lay 31 or more. Take the points. 

Arkansas State is off a highly emotional win as their HC Blake Anderson surprised the team by showing up before the game. Anderson had been on leave due to his wife, Wendy, passing away from cancer last month. Right from the kickoff, the Red Wolves played inspired football in Las Vegas, crushing UNLV 43-17. It was their first win of the year after losing under interim HC David Duggan to SMU the previous week, 37-30. That loss no longer looks like a reason for the Red Wolves to hang their heads, however, especially with the difference in the game being a kick return for touchdown. SMU just clobbered North Texas, so they might be a better football team than most realize. 

Arkansas State is obviously going to be driven by emotion the rest of the season. HC Anderson is now back with the team. Even the Georgia program has decided to honor Wendy's passing by announcing a a "pink-out" for Saturday's game. I just can't see ASU being blown out here, at least not to the degree the oddsmakers are calling for. Last year, the Red Wolves hung nearly 400 total yards on Alabama's defense, a game which will have them better prepared for what they face here. We saw what the offense could do last week and in two games, they have scored 73 points. They'll score enough here to cover the generous number. 8* Arkansas State

8* North Carolina (6:00 ET): Who says "you can't go back home again?" Mack Brown is back in Chapel Hill and North Carolina is 2-0 SU/ATS after opening the season w/ B2B upsets over South Carolina and Miami. Now, for the first time since Brown's return, I'm ready to proclaim the Tar Heels as being the better team GOING INTO the matchup as this week they face Wake Forest. Yes, the game takes place in Winston-Salem but this Demon-Deacons team appears overrated. Starting a season w/ three consecutive upsets is rare, but not unprecedented. Take the points. 

In an odd quirk, this is actually NOT an ACC game even though both schools hail from that particular conference. Because of the size of the ACC (14 teams) and that they aren't in the same division, the schools decided to renew their rivalry on their own. Good for them. The home team has won four straight w/ UNC's 50-14 triumph in 2015 being the last meeting. But during his previous tenure (1988-97), Brown feasted on his in-state rivals, winning the last 16 such games. I don't think there's any denying that Brown has this program pointed back in the right direction. The Tar Heels were going to be improved this year no matter who the coach was (lost five games LY by 7 pts or less), but it's looking like Brown was the right man for the job.

Both teams have had their fair share of close calls so far. North Carolina's two wins have come by a total of seven points and both saw them rally late in the 4Q. They did finish w/ a 483-270 edge in total yds against South Carolina despite being down 20-9 entering the fourth. Wake Forest barely escaped Utah State in Week 1, winning on a late Kendall Hinton TD. But the WR is now injured and out. Last week against Rice, the Demon Deacons didn't pull away until late and actually had fewer first downs than the Owls. The Tar Heels were a lot better than their 5-19 SU record the L2 seasons and Brown clearly has them trending in the right direction. My power ratings indicate they should be FAVORED here. 8* North Carolina

10* Tampa Bay (8:20 ET): Both teams are coming off Week 1 losses here. The Buccaneers could have beaten San Francisco, but instead lost 31-17 in a game where two Jameis Winston interceptions were returned for touchdowns. It was a very sloppy game that saw three total touchdowns scored by the defense (one by TB) and FIVE nullified due to penalties. Meanwhile, don't be fooled by the closeness of Carolina's 30-27 loss to the Rams at home. They never led and were down double digits most of the way. Both teams desperately want to avoid an 0-2 hole and I think this is far too many points to lay on a short week for Carolina. Go w/ the dog. 

I had BOTH of these teams improving this year. One week in, they each have some work to do. I outlined the Panthers' path for improvement in my analysis last week. It had a lot to do w/ their record in close games over the L2 seasons. Two years ago, they were quite good in them. Last year, not so much. Well, last week's result definitely mirrored the second half of last season as they dropped to 0-6 their L6 games decided by seven points or less. But the reality is they were lucky to even finish that close as they punched in a garbage time TD in the final two minutes to make it 30-27. Going back to last season, a big issue w/ the offense has been Cam Newton's failure to "go deep." His longest completion in Wk 1 went for only 17 yds and he only attempted one pass of 20+ yds.

Ultimately, I think Bruce Arians will have the Bucs improved. Whether or not he has the right pieces right now is up for debate. But the Bucs offense, which did gain a ton of yds last year, should have been better in Week 1. A lot of that falls on Winston and the interceptions. Look for him to clean up those mistakes here. The Bucs' defense did its job week, holding the 49ers to just 256 total yards. In the end, I view the market as being too one-sided on this matchup as the underdog is going to be every bit as desperate as the favorite. 10* Tampa Bay

10* NY Giants (4:25 ET): This is a matchup where we are markedly higher on one team and markedly lower on the other. On paper, it's easy to understand why so many are writing off the Giants in 2019. They went 5-11 last season, lost WR Odell Beckham Jr in the offseason and made a questionable 1st round draft pick (QB Daniel Jones out of Duke). But this team wasn't as bad as you might think last season as they finished middle of the pack in DVOA and were only outscored by 43 points. The fact they lost eight games by 7 pts or less (most in the league) signals they may have actually been more unlucky than bad.

Dallas was certainly more lucky than good last year. They went 10-6 SU and won the division despite only outscoring opponents by 15 pts over the course of the season. To put that point differential in its proper perspective, note that the other three division winners in the NFC were all +138 or better! Things really changed for the better after a mid-season trade for WR Amari Cooper. But it was not Cooper, nor the exploits of any one individual player that drove the Cowboys' success. Rather, it was a 9-2 record in games decided by 7 pts or less. That includes a perfect 7-0 after the Cooper trade, all those wins coming in the final nine weeks. Just once did the Cowboys win a game by more than eight points all year! 

The running back position is likely to be spotlighted in this matchup. With Beckham gone, the Giants are likely to lean heavily on second year RB Saquon Barkley, who had an outstanding rookie year. Dallas' bellcow Ezekiel Elliott just signed this week and there's no way he'll be in "game shape." Throw in the likely change these teams are going to experience this year in close games and you can smell an upset here. The G-Men also will be motivated by revenge as they've been swept the last two years by the Cowboys. The Giants have covered 11 of their last 16 road games. 10* NY Giants

10* NY Jets (1:00 ET): So, we're higher on the Jets than most are for this season. We see a team that has plenty of room to improve, and should given that they finished LY 1-5 SU in games decided by 7 pts or less and w/ a -10 turnover differential. They have one of the worst Pythagorean win differentials (-1.3) as well, signaling that they were a lot better team than what you'd think w/ a 4-12 SU finish. QB Sam Darnold actually played a lot better in the 2nd half of his rookie season as his TD-INT ratio in the L4 games was 6-1. The offense adds RB Le'Veon Bell, who is fresh after sitting out all of last season and there's a new HC (Adam Gase) to preside over it all. 

Most are going to view these two AFC East rivals as being pretty even coming into 2019. But while we're high on the Jets, the same cannot be said for Buffalo. They did have two more wins than the Jets LY, but the two teams finished w/ nearly identical point differentials. We remain unsold on 2nd year QB Josh Allen as well. His 53% completion rate was worst in the league last year. Remember that it was at this time last year, many (us included) were projecting the Bills to be the worst team in football. They surprised in going 6-10 SU, but don't let that fool you into thinking they'll be improved for this year. 

Unlike the Jets, there were no substantive additions made on either side of the ball for the Bills, or on the coaching staff for that matter. The offense was actually quite bad last year and we don't think the defense is going to be as good this year.  If we're right about the Jets, then it means beating the Bills at home. These teams split last year, but each time the road team won. The Bills' defense gave up 200+ rush yards in three games last season. So Bell could have a big debut here for the Jets. Buffalo has won just 5 of its last 17 road games and is 7-16 SU as an underdog. Lay the short number. 10* NY Jets

8* Carolina (1:00 ET): All the key metrics indicate that the Panthers will be an improved team in 2019. Ironically, it was at this time last year, we were proclaiming they were set to regress. The 2017 team that made the playoffs (went 11-5 SU overall) did so on the strength of a 7-2 record in one-score games and that was unsustainable. Now, for awhile there, our calls for regression looked foolish as the Panthers started last year 6-2. But, it turned out we were right as they lost their next seven games (five of them by 7 pts or less) and missed the playoffs altogether. Now, for many of the same reasons we said they'd regress last year, we believe they'll improve this year. Under HC Ron Rivera, the Panthers have a habit of having bounce back years w/ their record in "close games" almost being like a yo-yo year to year. 

Sean McVay has transformed the Rams into one of the league's real powerhouses the last two seasons. They made it all the way to the Super Bowl last year, but chose a most inopportune time to have their worst offensive game under McVay. The Patriots held them to 260 total yards and three points in an ugly game. What New England did that day will be studied and borrowed by all future Rams' opponents. One thing we know is certain and that's LA won't be repeating LY's 7-1 record in close games (sound familiar?), which happened to be a league best. It will also be challenging to match LY's +11 turnover differential as well. 

So, with one team set to improve and the other set to regress, our call on this one is pretty easy. Cam Newton wasn't healthy down the stretch for the Panthers last season and while he sustained a minor injury in the preseason, all indications are that he's ready to roll here in Week 1. Todd Gurley was basically M.I.A. in the Super Bowl for the Rams and we think he's a big question mark heading into this season. The loser of the previous year's Super Bowl has gone 3-16 ATS in Week 1 the L19 seasons as there's often a "hangover effect" from losing that big game.  Newton is 14-5 ATS as an underdog since 2015, including a perfect 4-0 ATS the last four times he's gotten points at home. Teams that missed the playoffs and had a losing ATS record the previous year (Carolina was 7-9 ATS) are 30-15-1 ATS the L10 years in Week 1 if matched up w/ a playoff team. 8* Carolina

10* Washington (10:30 ET): You wanna talk some line value. Last year when these teams met, Washington was an 11-point favorite in Berkeley. They obviously lost outright (12-10), setting up the big revenge play here. But only having to lay a similar number here in Seattle seems like a real bargain. The Huskies were ranked #15 in the country at the time of LY's loss and while Chris Petersen's team isn't being considered nearly as dangerous for 2019, that seems a bit foolish on the surface as they're actually ranked slightly higher currently and we agree w/ the pollsters' assessment. Lay the number here in this Pac 12 opener! 

It's not just the revenge angle that has us on UW here. We're simply not fans of this Cal team either as they figure to really struggle to put points on the board. They got away w/ not scoring a single offensive TD in last year's upset, but don't figure to be that fortunate again as the Huskies are certainly reminding themselves of what happened that day. While it's a new year, Cal has only four starters back on offense. They turned the ball over quite a bit in 2018 and that looks like it's still going to be a problem as they coughed it up four times in last week's 27-13 win over Cal Davis. The Bears' defense is very good, one of the nation's best on the backend in fact, but they are going to be tested a lot more here.

One of the reasons you should not expect much of a slip w/ Washington this season is they brought in a transfer at QB in Jacob Eason, who comes over from Georgia. Eason's first start saw him throw for four touchdowns and 349 yards in a 47-14 rout of Eastern Washington. The Huskies also ran for 200 yards on offense as it really was a complete performance. This is a team that has won the Pac 12 two of the last three seasons and can absolutely get back to the Championship Game again this year. They are a perfect 14-0 SU at home the last three years, so not only will there be no upset this time around, look for the Huskies to win big Saturday night in a revenge spot on National TV. 10* Washington

8* Fresno State (10:30 ET): It can't be understated as to what an amazing turnaround Jeff Tedford has engineered here at Fresno State. Two years ago, he inherited a team that had just gone 1-11 SU and finished dead last in the Mountain West Conference. Under his direction, the Bulldogs have gone a stunning 22-6 SU and 20-6-2 at the betting window. They were 12-2 SU last year and won the Conference Title, winning at Boise State. That was a revenge spot for a regular season loss on the blue turf. Late Saturday, FSU gets a shot at revenge for the other of LY's two losses, that being Minnesota, who now must come out to the West Coast (LY's game in Minneapolis). Take the points. 

Last year was a very even game that saw Fresno State give up the go-ahead score (was tied 14-14) w/ just over three minutes remaining. The game ended w/ FSU throwing an INT in the end zone on the potential game-tying score. I love the fact that the Bulldogs are getting points at home for this rematch as they're a perfect 7-0 ATS as underdogs under Tedford following LW's cover at USC. While they lost the game 31-23, note FSU actually outgained the Trojans 462-447. Yes, Southern Cal lost its starting QB to a season ending injury, but the real key was a 100-yard kickoff return for a TD in the third quarter. Take that away and it was basically an even game at the Coliseum. 

Minnesota is not as good as USC, but you already knew that. PJ Fleck's team had trouble beating South Dakota State last week, winning by only seven (28-21) as 14-pt favorites. Yes, South Dakota State is one of the better FCS programs. But Minnesota needed a late score just to win the game on the field. The problem for the Gophers appears to be along the line - on both sides of the ball. They gave up a ton of rushing yards last week (174) and considering Fresno just ran for 200+ against USC, expect them to rack up plenty of yards over land in this one as well. 8* Fresno State

analysis soon

8* Wisconsin (3:30 ET): It's important NOT to overreact to just one game. However, if Wisconsin's season-opening win over USF (49-0 shutout!) was any indication, then the Badgers may be more improved that most realize. This was going to be an improved team anyway after shockingly falling to just eight wins LY, the low-water mark in Madison over the past decade. The Badgers are our choice to win the wide-open Big 10 West this year and are a potential Top 10 team down the line. Currently ranked #16 in the polls, they should have zero difficulty in blowing out a Central Michigan team that is probably still the worst the MAC has to offer. The huge number won't scare us off. Lay it!

That 49-0 win over South Florida last week came on the road for Paul Chryst's team as they outgained the Bulls 433-157. If you recall, we railed against USF for much of last season, but at one point they were ranked. So they have every right to be excited in Madison right now. Remember that RB Jonathan Taylor is coming off a season in which he ran for 2194 yards! He ran for four touchdowns last week. The defense wasn't up to par last year, but clearly has improved. In Chryst's first three seasons here, the Badgers never allowed more than 16 PPG. That number spiked to 22.6 PPG last season, but will almost certainly decrease in 2019. 

Central Michigan was horrible last season, winning only 1 game and it was against FCS Maine (by a score of 17-5!). Jim McElwain, who previously failed at Florida, takes over this job and it's a pretty big rebuild up in Mount Pleasant. The Chippewas did open the season w/ a 38-21 win, but it was against FCS Albany and giving up that many points probably isn't a good sign. The defense was considered the stronger side of the ball last year, but still allowed over 200 rush yards per game and has just three starters back. So Taylor should run wild here. CMU did have only three losses by 24+ points LY and just one (51-13 at Toledo in the final game) by more than this spread. But it's been a long time since the Chips faced a team as good as Wisconsin. It promises to be a LONG Saturday for them. 8* Wisconsin

8* Bowling Green (12:00 ET): This is one where we don't see an outright upset, but we're not about to bypass taking this many points against a Kansas State squad still getting its proverbial "feet wet" in the post Bill Snyder era. The Wildcats slipped to 5-7 SU in Snyder's final season, missing a bowl for the 1st time in nine seasons, by blowing a 17-pt lead in the reg season finale at Iowa State (but they still covered for us!). Chris Klieman takes over, coming from North Dakota State where he won four FCS Nat'l Titles in five years. His first game went well w/ the Wildcats running for a school record 361 yards (on 58 carries) against FCS Nicholls State. Though Bowling Green has struggled the last several years, don't expect them to get run over like that. Take the points. 

Bowling Green also has a 1st year HC in Scott Loefer, who spent the better part of the last decade serving as the OC for some high profile programs (Auburn, Va Tech & BC). This is clearly a massive rebuild he's undertaking and it didn't help that QB Jarret Doege decided to transfer late. But the Falcons' first game was a success as they too clubbed a FCS opponent, beating Morgan State 46-3 w/ a 620-70 edge in total yards! Consider that a "confidence-builder" for a rare P5 game against a team from a conference other than the Big 10. 

Kansas State has two big road games on deck, at Mississippi State and Oklahoma State w/ a bye week in between. Don't be surprised if late in the game (assuming this one isn't coming down to the wire), the coaching staff doesn't become more concerned about those games than this one. As for BGSU, who just suffered through three bad seasons under former HC Mike Jinks, expect an all-out effort Saturday afternoon in Manhattan. The early start time may do no favors for the favorite either. Consider that this spread is currently larger than what KSU was asked to lay to an FCS opponent last week. There were only three times in the previous two seasons where the Wildcats were asked to lay between 21 and 31 points. They won all three games, but failed to cover twice. This is too big a number for them to be laying right now. 8* Bowling Green

8* Maryland (12:00 ET): Over the course of the final nine weeks of last year's NCAAF regular season, we nailed an amazing 18 outright upsets. Wasting little time this year, we've already nailed Hawaii (+11.5) on Opening Night as well as Boise State over Florida State last Saturday. We anticipated this to be the latest addition to our "upset brigade," but unfortunately it can no longer qualify as the line has "jumped the fence" here w/ Maryland now favored. Never fear though. The Terps still are a solid play here as Syracuse (#21 AP/#22 Coaches) is a ranked team in name only. 

It's a new era in College Park, MD w/ Mike Locksley taking over. Locksley served as the OC under Nick Saban at Alabama the L2 seasons and was the Broyles Award Winner (top assistant) last year. The Maryland players went through alot LY w/ the death of a teammate and the dismissal of D.J. Durkin. But they still opened w/ an emotional 34-29 upset of Texas. Locksley's 1st game as HC projected to be a whole heck of a lot easier and it was w/ Terps beating Howard 79-0. It was a 56-0 game at halftime, giving the starters some rest coming into this week, which is their 1st real test. The Terps finished w/ a 623-68 edge in total yds last wk despite basically taking the 2nd half off. The defense, which has five seniors, allowed just 1 rushing yard and never allowed Howard to cross midfield. For the record, the line flipping might be a blessing in disguise considering the Terrapins are 6-3 ATS their L9 times favored. 

Dino Babers looks to be building a winner at Syracuse. Last year, his 3rd on the job, saw him guide the Orange to a 10-win season. But don't look for them to be as good as last year. A season-opening win over Liberty (24-0) showed that the offense is going to miss dynamic QB Eric Dungey, who graduated as the school's all-time passing leader. Yes, like Maryland, the 'Cuse pitched a shutout last week as well. But it came against an opponent whose HC was laying in a hospital bed (not making this up!). All three of the Orange's losses LY came outside the Carrier Dome. They are just two years removed from a winless season on the road. Maryland is the better team and look for them to win this battle of former ACC rivals. 8* Maryland

10* Houston (7:30 ET): Oklahoma HC Lincoln Riley has earned the moniker of "quarterback whisperer" in his two seasons at Norman, although I'm not sure just how much actual whispering is required when you have the likes of Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray (the last two #1 overall DC's of the NFL) at your disposal. Riley and the Sooners have seemingly been gifted another star QB in the form of Jalen Hurts, who transferred out of Alabama when it became Tua Tagovailoa was the man in Tuscaloosa. Hurts will be tasked w/ leading a team in search of its fourth playoff appearance in the last five years. The Sooners figure to be favored in every game this season, but are laying a hefty number to a Houston team in the opener. Take the points here. 

It was 2016, one year before Riley took over for Bob Stoops, that Oklahoma lost outright to Houston in the season opener. They were 12-pt favorites that day, on a neutral field, and lost 33-23 to a Houston team that had legit playoff aspirations of their own that season. Things didn't play out that way (team finished 9-4 SU that year) and Tom Herman wound up leaving for Texas. After two seasons of Major Applewhite at the helm, a change was made and Dana Holgorsen is now running the show. Holgorsen is very familiar w/ OU having coached at WVU the last eight seasons. He didn't have much success, but this team is arguably more talented than what he had the last few years in Morgantown.

Speaking of QB's, Houston's D'Eriq King must be mentioned. He accounted for FIFTY touchdowns a year ago and that was with missing the final two games, neither of which went well for the Cougars. Injuries also hurt on the defensive side of the ball and that showed in those final two games (both blowout losses). But because of those injuries, the returning defense has more experience. Under Holgorsen, King should flourish. This is a very dangerous Houston team, one that should not be getting this many points, even in Norman. The Cougars were actually favored in every game King started last year. Oklahoma has failed to cover five of the last seven times it has been chalk of 21.5 to 31 points. 10* Houston

10* Duke (3:30 ET): I'm certain you recall Alabama being absolutely humiliated by Clemson last January in the BCS Title Game as Nick Saban was handed perhaps his worst ever defeat, losing 44-16. So the narrative seems to be that the Crimson Tide are going to come out angry in 2019, looking to blow everyone away (much like they did last year before running into Clemson). The Tide are quite accustomed to these neutral site season openers, winning nine in a row by an average of 24 PPG. But I'd be hesitant about laying this many points. In fact, I'm grabbing the number as Duke is always pesky under HC David Cutcliffe. 

Now, at the end of the game, I fully anticipate the announcers yelling "Roll Tide." I just don't think they'll "roll" as much as the oddsmakers think they will. Duke comes into the year having to replace QB Daniel Jones, who the NFL's Giants made their top draft choice. While that pick may have been somewhat maligned by draftniks, Jones will be missed in Durham. Still, I trust Cutcliffe enough to expect him to get something out of the QB position. Quentin Harris has made only two career starts (both coming LY when Jones was hurt), but is a senior. One starting receiver (Jake Bobo) is out, but he didn't exactly have awe-inspiring numbers last year. The bottom line is that the only P5 teams w/ more bowl victories than Duke in the L4 years are: Alabama, Clemson and Wisconsin. 

The Blue Devils can make a game out of this, at least for awhile, which will keep this game within the number. Alabama obviously lost a ton of talent to the NFL. While they're in solid position to replace it, there will still be many first-time starters in the lineup. I don't expect the same fire we saw from the Tide last year, at least in non-conference play. Maybe that will disappoint Saban, but he can settle for another SEC Title & playoff sport. Duke is 10-2 ATS as an underdog the last two seasons and 8-2 ATS when getting 31 or more points going back to '93. 10* Duke

8* Memphis (12:00 ET): Consider all that happened to Memphis last season. There were four different games where they blew a DD lead and lost. Two were against a UCF team that would run the table in the regular season. The other two were upset losses at the hands of Navy (terrible weather) and Wake Forest (Birmingham Bowl). They were also upset as two-touchdown chalk at Tulane. That Tulane loss left them 0-2 in AAC play. Yet the Tigers would still go onto win their division and appear in the Conference Title Game. This year's team projects to be better and I'm taking them in the season opener vs. Ole Miss.

Now you may be questioning laying points w/ an AAC team against an opponent from the big, bad SEC. But know that Memphis has gone 13-2 SU at the Liberty Bowl the L2 seasons w/ both losses coming by a single point! They are 0-4 SU against UCF the L2 yrs, but 18-5 SU vs. everyone else. It was four years ago that Ole Miss came to the Liberty Bowl as a 10-pt favorite and lost by double digits (38-24). That was a much more talented Rebels squad too; at the time they were ranked #13 in the country. The Ole Miss team that arrives this year hasn't had a winning season since 2015. They have just three returning starters on offense as well. 

Now the Rebels were dealing w/ a bowl ban the L2 years and have made significant changes at coordinator w/ Rich Rod running the offense and Mike MacIntyre running the defense for HC Matt Luke. There are 10 starters back on defense. But they are going to struggle to score in the early going (freshman QB) and that should prove costly against a Memphis team that's averaged no fewer than 38.8 PPG under HC Jay Norvell. This is an 11 AM start local time. Ole Miss has gone just 3-6 SU, 2-6 ATS on the road the L2 seasons and is 2-10 SU, 2-9 ATS as a dog. Memphis is not only 13-2 SU at home the L2 season, but also 10-5 ATS. Lay the short number. 8* Memphis

10* Boise State (12:00 ET): Well, Mother Nature has intervened here, moving the game from Jacksonville to Tallahassee due to the threat of Hurricane Dorian. That turns it from a de facto to actual home game for Florida State. In the interest of full disclosure, I had Boise State before the news came out. I'm sticking w/ them too as now we'll (likely) be able to get an even better number. Remember this is just as much a disruption for FSU as it is the Broncos (game takes place earlier in the day now too). You're not going to see Boise, a 31-win team the last three seasons, getting points very often. Take advantage. 

Florida State does figure to be one of the more improved teams in the country. Last year seemed almost like a "worst case scenario" under HC Willie Taggart as the 'Noles finished 5-7 SU and missed out on a bowl for the 1st time since 1982! It was their first losing season since Bobby Bowden's 1st year here, back in 1976! Taggart can only dream of the kind of career Bowden had here. While this team is definitely going to be better than last year's edition, I think this spread is a classic case of "putting the cart before the horse," or Bronco, whichever you'd like. 

The last two years have seen Florida State go just 8-16 against the spread. Boise State is a perfect 4-0 ATS as a dog. FSU had only one win over a ranked team last year and it was BC (#22) by 1 pt here at home. Boise State brings a tremendous defense to Florida. The Florida State defense remains a question mark. Due to the change in time and venue, plus weather uncertainty, don't be surprised if this turns into a low-scoring game as well. Fewer total points scored is just another reason to take the underdog in this one as Boise's freshman QB Hank Bachmeier can make some plays. 10* Boise State

8* Army (6:00 ET): Army just keeps marching along under HC Jeff Monken, who has set a new school record for wins in a single season each of the last two years! The Cadets were 11-2 last year, one of those losses coming at Oklahoma (in overtime!) The other was the season opener at Duke, the only "bad" game they played all season. Something tells me that Monken will have his team far better prepared for the season opener this year, which comes against a Rice team that projects to be one of the worst, if not THE worst team in the entire country! The Black Knights can name the score here. Lay the points. 

Army has gone 21-5 SU the last two seasons and ended LY ranked #19 after clobbering Houston 70-14 in the Armed Forces Bowl. This is truly a team to be reckoned with now. They've won 23 straight at West Point as well. Rice won't be threatening them straight up here, rather it's all about the pointspread and final margin of victory. Yes, the Owls have had a full offseason to prepare for the triple option offense Army runs. But considering how bad the defense was last year, it'll take a lot more than just preparation. The last two games vs. Army have resulted in losses by a combined score of 80-26. 

Rice won just two games last year, the opener (vs. FCS Prairie View A&M) and the finale (upset of Old Dominion). In between, they lost 11 in a row and were outgained by 138 yards per game in C-USA. Unless something drastic changes, the Owls project to be underdogs in all 12 games this year. They were 0-7 SU on the road a season ago, losing all seven by at least two touchdowns. The defensive line is inexperienced coming into the year. Army's offense led the country in time of possession last year while Rice's simply lacks the firepower to keep up. Last year, the Owls averaged only 18.9 PPG (actually up from 16.3 in '17!) 8* Army 

8* Utah (10:15 ET): One of these years, BYU is going to win a "Holy War" (lost 8 in a row). It just isn't going to be in 2019. The Cougars seemed to get plenty of love from early bettors for this season opening matchup vs. rival Utah, but the Utes are a legit top 15 team in the country this year and one of the favorites out in the Pac 12. Thus, this number looks to be way too short. Yes, many of these games have been close, including last year when Utah came back from a 27-7 deficit to win 35-27 (-11) in Salt Lake. But this Utes team just may be the most talented BYU has faced in recent memory. Lay the short number.

Consider that last year Utah made it to the Pac 12 Championship Game (lost to Washington 10-3) despite losing their starting QB and RB midway through the season. Both are back and ready to contribute in a major way. You know the Utes are going to be eager to take the field here after losing a bowl for just the second time under HC Whittingham. Something not talked about enough outside Pac 12 circles is that Utah perennially has one of the best special teams units in the country. They are also very strong along both the offensive and defensive lines entering the season. 

BYU went 7-6 last season, a nice bounce back from the somewhat shocking 4-win campaign in 2017. This is HC Kalane Sitaki's fourth year in Provo and obviously he's winless in "Holy Wars." While the Cougars should be a decent team in 2019, they simply are not at the level of the Utes, who (again) are a legit top 15 team. There are plenty of returning starters for Sitaki (17 total), but still there exists a gap between his team and the one in Salt Lake. Consider that in last year's comeback win, Utah didn't have either QB Huntley or RB Moss. Now they do. This number is just too low. 8* Utah

10* Tulane (8:00 ET): Tulane has seen its win total inherit in each of Willie Fritz's three seasons. Fritz inherited a 3-win team in 2016, brought them up to 4, then 5 in 2017 (just missed a bowl) and then finally 7 last year, including that elusive bowl win (1st since '02). The Green Wave started just 2-5 SU last year before going 5-1 down the stretch. While an easier second half schedule was somewhat responsible for the surge, credit must also be given to QB Justin McMillan, whose insertion into the starting lineup also coincided w/ the surge. Only five offensive starters return for Tulane, but one is McMillan, now a senior. Fritz should also have one of his better defenses this year w/ eight starters back on that side of the ball. 

Speaking of improving, credit must be given to the coaching job being done at FIU by Butch Davis. In his two years back in Miami (previously served at "The U"), he's led the Panthers to 8 and 9-win seasons. Last year's ended with a bowl win, same as Tulane, 35-32 over Toledo. Davis will have eight starters back on both sides of the ball this year, including senior QB James Morgan (NFL prospect) and expectations are thus pretty high for this team. But after going 4-1 SU on the road last year, I see the Panthers actually taking a step back in '19 (maybe just a slight one). Last year, FIU pulled off six outright upsets as underdogs. I don't see that happening again either. 

These teams met back in 2017 w/ FIU winning 23-10 as a DD home dog. That right there should tell you how far the program has come under Davis. But look for Fritz and Tulane to get revenge here. They're used to opening the season on a Thursday night as they've done so six of the last seven seasons. After last year's early season slumber, the Green Wave will be looking to start fast in 2019. FIU has dropped 12 of its last 14 season openers, including three straight. The big key here will be Tulane's rushing offense, which averaged 219 YPG last year and will going against an FIU defense that allowed 192 YPG on the ground. 10* Tulane

8* Hawaii (10:30 ET): You may recall that we opened last season w/ a play on Hawaii and they richly rewarded us w/ a 43-34 outright upset of Colorado State as two-touchdown underdogs. It may not be that easy this time around, but the Warriors getting double digits out on the island is simply too good to pass up (last year's opener was on the road). One of the many rationales cited for playing Hawaii in LY's season opener was that the opponent (CSU) matched the Warriors' inexperience and was caught laying far too many points, given the situation. Well, this year Hawaii has twice as many returning starters (18) as they did a year ago. Take the points. 

Arizona was very close to making a bowl game last year, but blew a 19-point 4Q lead to rival Arizona State in the regular season finale. That left them at 5-7 SU in HC Kevin Sumlin's first year in Tucson. Sumlin should be cut some slack at QB Khalil Tate was injured most of the year and the team just wasn't the same w/o him and his dual threat ability. I would expect the Wildcats to be better this season, but laying double digits on the road to a team that won a bowl game last year, in the opener no less, seems to be a case of "putting the cart before the horse." 

No one saw Hawaii starting last year at 6-1, probably not even HC Nick Rolovich. But the "Run and Shoot" (offense) is back in Honolulu and the Warriors scored 40+ five times in the first six games despite having just three starters back from 2017. Now they have nine starters back on both sides of the ball. I don't see the Warriors matching LY's 8-win total or even likely winning this game outright, but they are certainly capable of putting a lot of points on the board, so them in the underdog role is attractive here. Hawaii is on an 8-2 ATS run vs. the Pac 12 while Arizona has failed to cover 16 of its previous 21 road games. Take the points. 8* Hawaii

10* LA Rams (6:30 ET): I view these teams as pretty much even. One can only assume that the early line movement we saw on the Patriots was a byproduct of their vaunted reputation. The Rams, by comparison, are "new kids on the block" in this situation. For what it's worth, however, the Rams have produced a better point differential than the Patriots each of the last two seasons. Neither team had been an underdog all season before the respective Conference Championship Games when the Rams upset the Saints and the Pats did the same to the Chiefs. I only played one of those two games and it was against New England. That doesn't necessarily have a direct correlation to how I'm playing the Super Bowl, but it bears mentioning. I will be taking the points come Super Sunday w/ the Rams. 

Obviously, a great deal of attention has been paid to just how the Rams got here. They were an obvious beneficiary of a terrible blown call (should have been pass interference) vs. the Saints. But let's not use that singular play to discredit an entire body of work. They did end up outgaining the Saints 378-290 for the game and outscored 26-10 after the 1st quarter. The win over Dallas in the Divisional Round also was not as close as the final score indicates. The Rams led that game virtually the entire way (by as many as 16) and outgained the Cowboys 459-308. Not only does LA have a better point differential than New England, they have a better yardage differential - both on a per game and per play basis. 

Remember what I wrote about two weeks ago regarding the Patriots taking their act out on the road. Their offensive numbers go way down outside of Foxboro. Now obviously things didn't play out the way I had hoped vs. KC, but the Rams also have a better defense than the Chiefs. New England still has a losing record (4-5 SU) away from home. There is an irony here in that the Patriots' Super Bowl run under Belichick & Brady began w/ an upset of the Rams back in 2002. But remember that they have lost three Super Bowls, including last year (Philly special) and should have probably lost the last two. I think experience and reputation is somewhat overrated in this spot and will go w/ what I believe is the better team getting points. 10* LA Rams 

10* Kansas City (6:40 ET): At long last, the Chiefs are finally back in an AFC Championship Game. It's their first appearance in one since 1993. Though the winner of this annual game gets the Lamar Hunt Trophy, named for the franchise's founder and long-time owner, this will be the first time EVER that Arrowhead Stadium has actually hosted an AFC Championship! The Chiefs had gone just 1-10 SU in playoff games since that '93 AFC Champ Game appearance (lost to Buffalo) and were a heinous 4-16 SU, 3-17 ATS in the playoffs since winning Super Bowl IV. But that was before they exorcised a lot of demons last week w/ a completely dominant performance here at home vs. what was a red-hot Colts team. I said last week that "this year would be different (for KC)" and I still feel that way now.

Compared to the Chiefs, the Patriots' playoff resume is obviously a lot more impressive. They've won 10 straight division (AFC East) titles and five Super Bowls. This will be their 8th straight AFC Championship Game appearance, which is incredible when you think about it, and they're going for an 11th all-time Super Bowl appearance (their 10 prev appearances is the NFL record). They've gone 4-3 SU the L7 years in the AFC Champ Game, winning it each of the last two years. No team has won the AFC three straight years since the Bills of the mid-90's. The only other team to do it was the Dolphins in the early 70's. 

So enough w/ the history lesson, let's get down to the game. These teams did meet in the regular season w/ New England prevailing in a wild 43-40 game. But that was in Foxboro where the Patriots went undefeated this year (only team in the league to go unbeaten at home). Last week in Foxboro, everything that could go right for the Pats did as they routed the Chargers 41-28 (wasn't even that close). But this game is in Arrowhead and that presents a problem for Brady, Belichick and co. Kansas City's somewhat maligned defense is A LOT better at home, giving up just 17.4 PPG here. New England's offense, which averages 33.8 PPG at home, averages just 21.6 PPG on the road. That's a sizable dropoff, especially when having to compete w/ Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense, which averages 35.1 PPG. Kansas City, clearly, is the better offensive team in this matchup. New England has lost road games this year to Detroit, Tennessee, Jacksonville and Miami. I think homefield and revenge play a big factor here and Kansas City goes on to the Super Bowl. Lay the points! 10* Kansas City

8* LA Chargers (1:05 ET): At some point before kickoff, you are likely to hear that Philip Rivers has never beaten Tom Brady. The lifetime record is 0-7 SU and the Chargers have covered the spread in only one of the games, which happened to be the 2007 AFC Championship when the Patriots were undefeated and Rivers was playing on a torn ACL. (Rivers referenced that game in his post-game interview last week). For the record, Rivers has beaten the Patriots once (in 2008), but that was the year Matt Cassel had to fill in for an injured Brady. It also should be noted that the majority of the head-to-head matchups between Rivers and Brady have been close games. This might be Rivers best shot ever at beating Brady. I'm taking the points. 

At first glance, the timing and circumstance of this matchup do not seem most ideal from the Chargers' perspective. It's the second straight week where kickoff will be at 10 AM PST and the Patriots are off a bye. Nevertheless, there is a lot to like about this Chargers team. The defense is much better than in years' past. They held the Ravens to just three points and less than 100 total yds (including a negative in net passing!) through three quarters in the Wild Card game. Obviously, it will not be that easy here against Brady & the Patriots. But fortunately for the Chargers, their offense should also be a lot better this week. They average more yards per play this year than every team besides the Chiefs and Rams. Also, they won't have to face a Ravens' defense that is #1 in the league. 

The Patriots, like the Chargers, rank in the top 10 in the league in scoring defense. But there's a bit of a gap when it comes to the number of yards allowed. The Chargers are #9 in yards allowed while the Patriots rank 21st. New England was the only team in the league not to lose at home during the regular season, but the Chargers were arguably the league's toughest road team as they are now 8-1 SU and that one loss wasn't a true road trip as it came in LA against the Rams. I'm not convinced that the better team isn't the one getting points here. The Chargers are also 5-1 ATS as underdogs this season, also winning all five of those games outright. In terms of points allowed vs. scored and yards allowed vs. gained, these teams are relatively even on a per game basis. But the Chargers are significantly better on a per play basis. 8* LA Chargers

10* Kansas City (4:35 ET): Incredibly, underdogs have now cashed in 14 of the last 15 NFL playoff games. That included a 4-0 ATS sweep last weekend. Another trend Chiefs' fans won't want to hear is that their team is an absolutely woeful 4-16 SU, 3-17 ATS in the postseason since winning Super Bowl IV! That includes just ONE win since '93 (when Joe Montana was the QB!) and that sole victory came in 2016 against a 9-7 Texans team that was quarterbacked by the immortal duo of Brian Hoyer and Brandon Weeden! Since '93, there have been an incredible NINE "one and done's" by the Chiefs in the playoffs, four of those coming when they were at home and off the bye in this very Divisional Round. But never fear KC, I'm hear to tell you that things are going to be "all right" this year. Lay the points! 

Since '03, there's been only one time that the Chiefs lost at home in the Divisional Round. That was two years ago to the Steelers. This team is much better than any Chiefs team that has preceded it. Let's start w/ QB Patrick Mahomes and that record-setting offense, which led the league in both yardage and scoring. In Mahomes, HC Andy Reid finally has a QB capable of carrying his team to a SuperBowl. The problem for the Chiefs' in recent playoff appearances has been a lack of scoring. In the L11 playoff games, they've topped 21 pts just three times (including the 30-0 win over the Texans). That certainly should not be a problem here w/ an offense that comes in averaging 35.3 PPG. The Chiefs scored at least 26 pts in every regular season game. 

I think it's fair to say that no one expected Indianapolis to still be playing at this point of the season. Especially when they were 1-5 SU. But over the last three months, Frank Reich's team has been as good as anybody, going 10-1 SU the L11 games. They used a fast start (touchdowns on first two drives) to eliminate Houston last weekend, winning 21-7. But the Chiefs are a whole lot better than the Texans and anybody else the Colts have faced this year. The only playoff team that Indy beat this year besides Houston was Dallas and that game was at home. I just cannot see any way that KC loses this game as they have to be feeling "this is our year" after leading the AFC in point differential (+144) by a wide margin in the regular season. 10* Kansas City 

10* Clemson (8:00 ET): This is the 4th year in a row that Alabama and Clemson are meeting in the College Football Playoff and third time in those four years to determine the National Champion. The schools split the two prior Championship Games w/ Bama winning 45-40 in 2016 and then Clemson returning the favor 35-31 one year later. The Tigers covered the spread (as underdogs) both times before the Crimson Tide largely dominated LY's CFP semifinal matchup, winning 24-6 as 3.5-pt chalk. But the starting QB for each team will be different this time around with Tua starting for Alabama and Trevor Lawrence starting for Clemson. To me, Clemson has proven itself to be Alabama's equal over the past several seasons and should be priced as such. I'm taking the points.

Clemson had an even easier time than I anticipated w/ Notre Dame in the semifinals, rolling to a 30-3 win. I felt they deserved to be DD favorites in the game, but it was clear that ND didn't even belong on the same field. They outgained the Fighting Irish 538-248 and consider it was a 23-3 game at halftime, so the final score easily could have been even more lopsided. Clemson ended the game by kneeling inside the red zone and earlier fumbled at the ND 12-yard line. Lawrence completed 27 of 39 passes for 327 yards and three touchdowns as the offense has clearly become more dynamic w/ him as the starter. He left his 1st start (vs. Syracuse) due to injury, but has since played every game. Clemson has won those games by 60, 34, 49, 61, 20, 29, 21, 31 & 27 pts! My goodness! 

That's an average margin of victory of 36.8 PPG w/ no final score closer than 20 points. And this team is an underdog? It's a role they are rarely in Perhaps most shocking of all from the Notre Dame game is that the defense didn't even skip a beat despite playing w/o All-American Dexter Lawrence. I know everyone is going to want to talk Tua and the Bama offense, which has earned the right to be called the best ever of the Saban era in Tuscaloosa. But Clemson will be the best defense they have seen all year and is the only defense better than their own. Over the last four seasons, Clemson has lost only four times, three of those coming by five points or less. I know that Alabama is responsible for two of those four losses, including the one that was by more than five points, but these teams are basically equals coming into this game. 10* Clemson 

10* Chicago (4:40 ET): I played the Bears in the very 1st game of the NFL season, the Hall Of Fame Game in August. In my analysis for that matchup, I said "I view the Bears as a potential darkhorse in the NFC North this season" and that you shouldn't be surprised if they end up making the playoffs. Well, that was one heck of a premonition and it turns out the team was even better than I thought they would be, rolling to the NFC North crown w/ a 12-4 SU record. I'm still not sure I'm sold on second-year QB Mitchell Trubisky, but Matt Nagy was a homerun hire as the head coach and the defense is one of the best in the league. Something else to keep in mind is that I fashioned Chicago as a potential darkhorse BEFORE they acquired Khalil Mack, which happened right before the start of the reg season and obviously made the stop unit even more formidable. 

Coming off its Super Bowl run last year, I think most were anticipating somewhat of a modest "step back" for the Eagles in 2018. Virtually everything went right for them a season ago, save for the Carson Wentz injury, but even then Nick Foles came in and played the best football of his career. Fast forward to one year later and Foles is again the starter heading into the postseason as Wentz is hurt again. Though Foles did win the Super Bowl LY, I don't think this is the scenario anyone in Philly wanted coming into the year. Quite frankly, the Eagles are pretty lucky to have even made the playoffs as they looked pretty much "left for dead" following a second loss to Dallas in Week 14. But they rattled off three straight victories w/ Foles starting at QB and that was enough to make it in a weak NFC.

I realize that Philly fans have convinced themselves that they're better w/ Foles at QB than w/ Wentz, but at the end of the day this Eagles team is simply not as good as LY nor are they as good as the Bears. Recall that last season, the Eagles entered the playoffs as the #1 seed in the NFC and thus had homefield advantage. Now, they're the 6-seed and on the road. At this time last year, people were writing them off w/ Foles as the starter. Now they seem to be getting too much credit. Chicago is the much better team defensively in this matchup and the gap on offense isn't particularly great. Even last season, this Eagles' defense struggled on the road. The Bears are 7-1 SU at home this year and covered 12 of their 16 regular season games overall. They also led the league in takeaways. 10* Chicago

8* Seattle (8:15 ET): Reports of the Seahawks' demise this year turned out to be greatly exaggerated as here we are in January and another Russell Wilson-led team is in the playoffs. Make no mistake about it, this clearly is a Wilson-led outfit. Part of the reason, many (myself included) were so skeptical of Seattle coming into the season was that the famed "Legion of Boom" (secondary) had been disassembled and then to make matters even worse, the one holdover (Earl Thomas) got injured early in the year. The team started 0-2, but then went onto win 10 of its last 14 games, a streak which began in Week 3 w/ a win over ... the Cowboys. Two of their four losses were to the Rams (by a total of 7 pts) and another was to a 12-4 Chargers team. 

Dallas is another somewhat surprising playoff entrant. America's Team also got off to a slow start as they were just 3-5 at the midway point of the regular season. But in their case, it's easy to see what led to the turnaround, that being the acquisition of WR Amari Cooper from Oakland. Coming into the year, it was thought the Cowboys had the worst receiving corps in the league. But Cooper quickly changed that, giving QB Dak Prescott a viable weapon on the outside. Ezekiel Elliott also led the league in rushing yards. Credit should also be given to a Cowboys defense, which is legit one of the best in the league as it ranks seventh in yards and sixth in points allowed. Another key factor is that Dallas went a league-best 8-2 SU in close games (7 pts or less). Over the 2nd half of the season, they were 7-1 SU and every win was by 8 pts or fewer. 

While Elliott may have the individual lead in rushing yardage, no TEAM ran for more yards this year than Seattle. The Seahawks' offense ran for 160 YPG during the regular season, nearly 38 more than Dallas did. Both of these teams finished w/ 10-6 SU records, but Seattle had a +81 point differential while Dallas was only +15. The regular season meeting was in Seattle, but a change in homefield isn't enough to flip the result in my view. This will be the 4th meeting between the two teams since 2015. In the previous three, Dallas has failed to score more than 13 points and they've lost them all, one at home just last year. The Cowboys have never won a playoff game under HC Jason Garrett (0-2) and Seattle has covered five straight times as an underdog, winning three of those games outright. I also happen to trust Wilson more than Prescott in this situation. The better team is getting points. 8* Seattle

10* Houston (4:35 ET): The AFC South rivals have never met before in the postseason, but one thing they do have in common is that each rallied back from a poor start to the regular season. Houston won the division despite starting 0-3 while Indianapolis was pretty much left for dead at 1-5 SU. The Texans have won 11 of their last 13 games and the Colts have won 9 of 10, so we've got two red hot teams here. Being that they are division rivals, they met twice in the regular season. Each was victorious on the other's field w/ Houston's 37-34 OT win in Indy actually being its first win of the season and the Colts' 24-21 win in Week 14 being one of the two times the Texans have lost since then. The Colts have had the edge historically over the Texans, including a 9-4 SU, 9-3-1 ATS mark the L13 meetings. But I just don't see how Houston isn't getting more credit for being the home team here. I'll take the points. 

Let's look back at the two regular season meetings, shall we? The first meeting in Indy actually saw the Texans race out to an 18-point lead early in the 2nd half before letting the Colts back in. The Colts tied the game w/ a TD + 2-pt conversion in the final minute of regulation, capping off an 85-yard drive. Andrew Luck actually wound up throwing the ball 62 times for a career-high 464 yards as he was forced to play "catch up." That was the most points given up by the Texans' defense all season. This is a group that allows only 19.7 PPG for the season, including 17.0 at home. 

The second meeting in Houston saw the Colts largely control from start to finish. They again put up over 430+ yards against JJ Watt and company, but I think the third time will be the charm for this Texans' defense. I just don't see the road team winning on the field for a third straight time in a division rivalry. In their 9-1 run to end the regular season, the Colts were pretty fortunate to play a lot of bad teams and remember they were shutout (at Jacksonville) in their only loss. The last two weeks saw them have to rally back from a double digit deficit to beat the 5-11 Giants at home, then they were the beneficiaries of getting to face Tennessee having to start Blaine Gabbert at QB in a "play-in game." Houston is the better team and at home, thus they should be priced accordingly. 10* Houston 

8* Washington (5:00 ET): Ohio State is a very popular side in this year's edition of the Rose Bowl, not only based on name recognition, but also due to the fact that this is Urban Meyer's final game on the sidelines. Conventional wisdom says the Buckeyes "will" send Meyer out a winner, but let's not forget that Georgia Tech (admittedly not as strong a team as OSU) failed to do the same for Paul Johnson earlier this week. Washington is a really strong defensive team and it's not like Ohio State didn't underachieve this year (despite losing only one game). I'll take the points here. 

The Huskies give up only 15.5 PPG. Like Ohio State, they came into 2018 w/ CFP aspirations, only to fall short. But they still won the Pac 12 Championship, winning at Washington State in the regular season finale and then holding Utah to only three points in the Conference Title Game. Oregon was the only team this year to score more than 24 pts on the Huskies. Granted, Ohio State will be the best offense they have faced this year. But the Huskies' three losses this year have been by a combined 10 points. They have not been blown out and I don't expect them to be here. For those pointing to the Michigan game as a sign Ohio State may put up a ton of points here, note that Washington plays a different style of defense. 

The Buckeyes had three wins by five points or less in the regular season and two of those were against Maryland and Nebraska, non-bowl teams. Defensively, this team had issues all season, giving up at least 26 points in all but five games. The Washington offense was far from consistent this year, but they have a senior QB in Jake Browning that will want to go out a winner just as much as Meyer. Browning and the seniors have not won a bowl game since the 2015 Heart of Dallas Bowl against Southern Miss. They are a great value as a contrarian dog here. 8* Washington  

10* Michigan State (3:00 ET): My favorite side of the Bowls is Michigan State in the Redbox Bowl as I think the wrong team is favored here. I'll concede that Sparty's offense isn't always pretty, but I trust their defense and coaching staff to get the job done here against an overrated Oregon team. They may have underperformed in the regular season, but took on a much tougher schedule than did the Ducks. In their past six bowl games, MSU is 5-1 SU and ATS, the only loss coming to Alabama in a CFP semifinal matchup. Mark Dantonio has been involved in seven bowl games where the spread has been less than a touchdown and his teams are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in those games, including 5-0 ATS as a dog w/ four outright upsets. They are the better team here. 

Oregon has to be relieved that QB Justin Herbert will be returning to school next season. It was thought he would be the 1st QB chosen in the NFL Draft had he chosen to declare. But as good as Herbert was, the Ducks kind of faltered down the stretch, going just 3-3 SU the L6 games w/ two of those wins coming at the expense of the Pac 12's two last place teams, UCLA and Oregon State. They were 0-3 SU outside of Eugene, losing by double digits to Wazzu and Arizona. They also allowed 32 points to a Utah team that was w/o its starting QB AND RB. The Ducks did beat a couple of good defenses this year in Cal and Washington, but Michigan State will be the best they've gone up against in 2018. 

Michigan State allows only 4.62 yards per play, which is 12th best in the country. They allow just 81 YPG (#1) on the ground and 2.7 yards per carry. This is a defense that held Ohio State's vaunted offense in relative check. Other than the Buckeyes, no Spartans opponent scored more than 13 points against them the L5 games. CB Justin Layne won't play here (will instead prepare for the NFL Draft), but w/ Dantonio's coaching, I think this unit will be fine. Three of MSU's four losses this year were to Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State, all of whom I rate as top 10 teams. As alluded to earlier, the offense does have its issues, but a lot that had to do w/ missing RB L.J. Scott for much of the year. Scott (who is NFL bound) will play here and that makes Sparty's offense a lot more effective. Oregon has lost three straight bowl games and I see Michigan State keeping Herbert and their offense in check. 10* Michigan State

8* Pittsburgh (2:00 ET):  I think Pitt is a live dog here in the Sun Bowl. Though the regular season did not end well (B2B losses incl ACC Champ Game), Pat Narduzzi's team was improved this year after a disappointing 5-7 campaign in 2017. They won the ACC Coastal Division, going 6-2 in league play. Four of their losses were to top 10 teams - Penn State, UCF, Notre Dame and Clemson - three of those finished the regular season unbeaten! So even though the ACC was "down" this year (outside of Clemson), the Panthers won't be intimidated here by a middling Pac 12 squad as their non-conference schedule was quite the undertaking. I also imagine Pitt will be pretty motivated here as they've never won a bowl game under HC Narduzzi (last bowl win was 2013). Take the points. 

Relative to expectations, Stanford has been disappointing each of last two years. Were they to lose here, that would make it B2B 5-loss seasons. From 2010-16, they won 10+ games six times. Nothing was more emblematic of said disappointment this year than RB Bryce Love, who was hampered by both his own injuries and injuries to his offensive line. Love won't even play here in the Sun Bowl, citing the need to prepare for the NFL Draft. As disappointing as Love's numbers were this year (739 yds, 6 TDs), he'll certainly be missed Monday. In their seven Pac 12 games that weren't against UCLA and Oregon State, the Cardinal were held to 23 pts or less five times. 

Even had Love opted to play here, Pitt may very well have had the better rushing attack anyway. For the first time in school history, the Panthers boast TWO 1,000+ yard rushers, Qadree Ollison and Darrin Hall. For the year, the offense averages 5.6 yards per rush attempt and 230 YPG. (For comparison, Stanford averaged just 3.7 YPC and 108 YPG w/ Love). Yes, Pitt is in off B2B blowout losses, one to Miami and the other to Clemson in the ACC Champ Game. But I still point to the fact half of their losses this year came to teams that were unbeaten in the regular season. The drought w/o a bowl victory should have them as the more motivated side while this is just a disappointing end to a disappointing season for a Stanford team playing w/o its best player. 8* Pittsburgh 

8* Indianapolis (8:20 ET): This game will determine who gets the final playoff spot in the AFC. It could also be for first place in the AFC South if Houston were to somehow lose to Jacksonville earlier in the day (not likely). So the bottom line is the stakes could not be much higher for the final game of the NFL's regular season as the 9-6 Titans host the 9-6 Colts. You might be a bit surprised to see Indy favored on the road in this spot, but don't be as they've been the vastly superior team for the last two months, plus QB Andrew Luck has absolutely owned Tennessee in his pro career (10-0 SU against them!). The Titans are also dealing w/ uncertainty at QB as Marcus Mariota was injured last week and may not be able to play in the team's most important game of the season. Lay the points. 

Last season was a disaster for the Colts as they dipped to 4-12 SU and Andrew Luck didn't take a single snap. With Luck returning this year, the team was optimistic for a turnaround. But the season got off to an ugly 1-5 SU start and I have to admit that (like a lot of people), I essentially wrote this team off. But the Colts have put together a shocking run, winning 8 of their last 9 games, including a 38-10 beatdown of these Titans back in Week 11. Luck completed 23 of 29 passes in that blowout win for 297 yards. The Colts scored the game's first 24 pts and never looked back. Again, Luck has NEVER lost to Tennessee in his career. 

Tennessee made the playoffs last year and regardless of the result here will have put together three straight winning seasons. They've been the definition of "average" during that time, going 27-20 SU and outscoring their opponents by a total of four points. Speaking of point differential, a substantial gap exists between these two teams as the Colts are +73 this year compared to just +23 for the Titans. But the bigger deal is clearly the Mariota injury. He's reported as having a "stinger" which puts his long-term prognosis in some doubt. If the reports are true and Mariota can't go, then the Titans are left w/ Blaine Gabbert, who has NEVER played for a team w/ a winning record before this season. Compounding matters is that Tennessee is also beat up on the defensive side of the ball w/ Jurrell Casey, Brian Orakpo and Logan Ryan all out. The Colts are simply the better team here. 8* Indianapolis

10* Baltimore (4:25 ET): The Browns have been quite the exciting team since they made the correct move to dump HC Hue Jackson in the middle of the season. Led by rookie QB Baker Mayfield, the team is 5-1 SU in its last 6 six games, quintupling the number of wins the franchise had the previous two seasons combined. There is now a real sense of optimism in Cleveland for the first time in forever, though we'll have to see how the coaching situation plays out. It's also worth mentioning that none of the five teams Cleveland has beaten currently have winning records. Two of the five came against a Cincinnati team that is playing as poorly as anyone in the league right now. Wins over Carolina and Denver were basically "coinflip" type games. 

Baltimore is looking to win the AFC North here. To do so, all they need to do is win. While the Browns have made a leap from "laughingstock" to "respectable," the Ravens have gone from "mediocre" to "team no one wants to face in the playoffs." Last Saturday, they went out and turned in a very impressive performance, beating the previously red-hot Chargers 22-10 in LA. The Ravens' top-ranked defense snapped Philip Rivers' streak of 27 consecutive games w/ a TD pass and held the Chargers under 200 total yds, something that had happened only three other times in the Rivers era. The Chargers offense, which averages 6.6 yards per play (3rd highest in the league), never had a play longer than 17 yds the entire game and had just 10 pts on 12 drives. The lone LA touchdown came on a 17-yard drive after a fumble. 

The Ravens also have legit revenge here for a 12-9 loss suffered in Cleveland back in Week 5. That was a pretty even game that went to overtime and almost ended in a 9-9 tie. Both teams were also pretty different back then w/ Jackson still coaching the Browns and Lamar Jackson not yet starting at QB for the Ravens. Since Jackson replaced Joe Flacco, Baltimore has gone 5-1 SU w/ the only loss coming in OT at Kansas City. The offense has averaged a preposterous 218.8 yards rushing per game w/ Jackson as the starter. But the defense is still the bread and butter of this team as it ranks #1 in the league in both points and yards allowed. Look for them to keep Mayfield in check. With their season on the line, I look for the Ravens to win big here. 10* Baltimore 

10* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): A pair of disappointing seasons will be capped off Sunday in Tampa Bay where the Bucs host the Falcons. The season started so well for TB as they were 2-0 w/ QB Fitzpatrick setting records. But "Fitzmagic" quickly ran out of tricks and Jameis Winston doesn't seem like the guy to right this sinking ship either. HC Dirk Koetter may be coaching his final game this week. For Atlanta, their defense was decimated by injuries and the offense decimated by inefficiencies, particularly in the red zone. They're probably a better overall team compared to TB, but I don't think that means they're capable of winning on the road where their record this year is just 2-5 SU and ATS. I'll look for the home team to come through in this one as jobs are on the line. 

It's pretty shocking that the Bucs are only 5-10. As I said earlier, they were 2-0, but things quickly fell apart. Still though, they are outgaining opponents both on a per play and per game basis. They are actually third in the league in yards per game despite ranking 13th in scoring. Now the defense has largely been a disaster as it ranks 30th in scoring. But the team certainly deserved a better fate LW in Dallas when it outgained the Cowboys 382-232 (w/ 27-16 FD advantage), only to come up short on the scoreboard, 27-20. Not only did they give up a defensive TD in the game, but they were also stopped on downs inside the Dallas 10-yd line despite having it 2nd & 1 at the 2-yd line. It's been that kind of season for the Bucs, but that doesn't mean they can't win here. 

Being at home should have the Bucs as the more fired up side for this Wk 17 matchup. Both Winston and Koetter's jobs are likely on the line. Adding to the motivation is the fact the Bucs have lost to the Falcons four straight times, including a tough 34-29 setback in Atlanta back in Week 6. That's one of six losses the team has by eight points or less. The offense rolled up 500+ yards on the Falcons' D in that first meeting, but was -2 in TO's (like last week). As for the TB defense, it is MUCH better at home, giving up just 18.6 PPG as opposed to the 35.1 PPG it allows on the road. Atlanta has won each of the last two weeks, but has nothing to play for and could rest some offensive stars. 10* Tampa Bay

10* TCU (9:00 ET): This is the Cheez-It Bowl (formerly the Arizona Bowl), which is being held at Chase Field in Phoenix, home of MLB's Diamondbacks. It has the lowest total of any bowl game this year (or in recent memory) as TCU takes on Cal. TCU had a very disappointing regular season (as is evident by a 3-8-1 ATS record). But they proved they belong here by winning their final two games, over Baylor and Oklahoma State, both in pretty convincing fashion. So the Horned Frogs definitely want to "be here" Wednesday night against a Cal team that's going bowling for the 1st time since 2015 (just 2nd since '11). That'll have the Bears motivated as well, but I question their offense as well as the lasting effect losing to rival Stanford (final reg season game) may have had. 

TCU's offense wasn't exactly pretty either. Playing in a league (Big XII) not known for defense, the Horned Frogs still averaged only 24.7 PPG and that number is obviously lower when taking out the non-conference games. But, as per usual, Gary Patterson's team can play some defense. They give up just 24.4 PPG and that's an impressive number after running the Big XII slate. Look at who some of TCU's losses were to (Ohio State, Oklahoma, Texas, WVU) and you'll gain a better appreciation for this team. They were in every game besides the one vs. Oklahoma. They outgained opponents on a yard per play/game basis and should be improved next year as well. My number indicate they should be about a field goal favorite here. 

Cal's "Big Game" vs. Stanford had to be moved to the end of the regular season this year due to wildfires that were ravaging the area at the time. For Cal, it was two additional weeks to think about ending an eight-year losing streak in the rivalry. They ended up losing to the Cardinal, 23-13, and that final score is somewhat misleading in the sense that the Bears scored their only TD w/ 10 seconds to go. Cal, statistically, has a better defense than TCU. But I have tremendous concerns about an offense that averages less than 200 yards passing and was held to 15 pts or fewer in five of its final seven regular season games. The Bears went just 4-5 SU against a mediocre Pac 12 and were 4-2 SU overall in one-score games. I like TCU here. 10* TCU

10* Seattle (8:20 ET): While the Seahawks' secondary appears beaten up at the absolute worst time, they can still lean on the fact they have QB Russell Wilson and are a ridiculous 16-2 SU at home in primetime games under HC Pete Carroll. This is a huge game for both sides as Kansas City is trying to maintain the top spot in the AFC (could be one-half game back of the Chargers by kickoff) and Seattle is trying to lock down a Wild Card spot over in the NFC. I've taken Seattle a couple of times already in primetime games this year, citing short lines, and now I can grab them as a dog! Take the points. 

The two previous times I've taken Seattle in primetime games this year were a Thursday nighter vs. Green Bay (pushed as 3-pt favorites) and a Monday nighter vs. Minnesota (covered easily in a 21-7 win). In my analysis for both games, I cited the cheap price on them at home. Well, now they're a home dog, which you simply do not see very often. They were once earlier this year and I took them in that spot as well, getting almost a full TD against the Rams. They covered in a game they led much of the way (but eventually lost 33-31). They are now a perfect 5-0 ATS in the Russell Wilson "era" (2012-) as a home dog, winning four of those games outright. 

The health of Seattle's secondary will probably be a major focus going into Sunday night and it should be. But, for what it's worth, Carroll believes two of the questionable players are going to see the field. Remember this is a group that still has been able to find its way despite the loss of Earl Thomas early in the year. To me, the bigger question is Kansas City's defense, which is one of the worst in the entire league. In their last road game, the Chiefs gave up 33 points to a horrible Raiders team. They are 31st in the league in yards allowed per game. The poor defense has certainly contributed to the team's 0-4-1 ATS record its L5 games. Seattle's offense is ninth in the league in scoring. 10* Seattle

8* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): Fair warning - we're going w/ some "ugly" teams in this week's 3-pack. But this being late in the year, oddsmakers are starting to make you pay a "premium" for teams in "must win" situations. Case in point, Miami. Somehow, someway, the Dolphins have managed to stay in playoff contention despite a horrible YTD point differential (-79) that is actually 4th WORST in all of the league. This trend goes back even further. Over the last three seasons, Miami has a 23-23 SU record, but has been outscored by a stunning 208 points during that time. This is no legit playoff contender and I don't think they should be laying this many points to anyone, even a down-on-its luck Jacksonville team.

Last week, I played against the Dolphins as an underdog. It was a big play of Minnesota, my 10* Game of the Month in fact. The game was never really close as the Vikings jumped out to a quick 21-0 lead and wound up winning 41-17. It was quite emblematic of the Dolphins' season. While their seven wins have all been by eight points or less, six of their seven losses have been by double digits. Three of their last four wins have been by four points or less, one coming in overtime and another coming on the miracle play against the Patriots. Now they have to go w/o RB Frank Gore, their top offensive player. Gore averaged 4.6 yards per carry and his production will be tough to replace. 

This has been a disastrous season for Jacksonville, one that will in all likelihood lead to the franchise moving on from coach Doug Marrone and QB Blake Bortles. No team will have a bigger drop in wins from last season. But as bad as things have gotten, the Jags typically lose close. Like last week, when they gave the game away against Washington and lost 16-13. It was their fourth loss by four points or less since November 11th. They still have a defense that allows just 20.6 PPG. While out of it, I still rate Jacksonville slightly better than Miami. Note the Dolphins have been favored only three times all year and never by more than 3.5 points. 8* Jacksonville

8* NY Giants (1:00 ET): These teams were on opposite ends of shutouts last week. The G-Men were blanked, at home, by Tennessee. Indianapolis turned in perhaps its finest performance of the season w/ a 23-0 blanking of the Cowboys. Remember what I said about this 3-game report containing some "ugly" picks? Well, this is another one. As hot as the Colts have been (won 7 of 8), I'm unconvinced that they should be laying this many points against anyone. While they've been favored six times during the win streak, never have they been asked to lay more than a touchdown and in that instance it was against Buffalo. Again, we have an instance where oddsmakers are asking you to pay a premium on a team in a "must win" spot for playoff contention. I'll take the points. 

The G-Men couldn't score w/o Odell Beckham last week, but I think they'll find an easier time here against the Colts' defense. I say that knowing full well the Colts have allowed 6 pts or fewer in two of the last three games. They may no longer have Beckham, but they do have Saquon Barkley (1800 total yds) to lean on. Also, remember that two weeks ago the Giants scored 40 points w/o OBJ and that was against what is still a pretty good Redskins' defense. This is a Giants team that also beat Chicago three weeks ago.  Three of the Colts last five victories have been by a field goal. Also, the Giants are 6-1 ATS on the road this season w/ three outright upsets. 

My raw numbers have this line closer to six points. That's a lot of value. This is similar to the other two games in this report where the team facing a "must win" is being overvalued. The Colts have a huge showdown w/ the Titans next week that could very well determine the last seed in the AFC playoffs. They'll be a better value in that matchup. 8* NY Giants 

8* Detroit (1:00 ET):  We look to hit the trifecta here w/ yet another team getting serious value. Detroit cashed for me last week, even in a loss to lowly Buffalo. I said the Bills shouldn't be favored and while they won, the price was too high. Don't be surprised to see a similar result transpire this week. The Vikings, in desperate need of a win here, are laying about a field goal more than they should. At 7-6-1, they currently occupy the final playoff spot in the NFC. But it's a precarious lead. As motivating as that situation may be, I don't see them winning by more than a touchdown here. Take the points. 

Minnesota was my *10* Game of the Month last week. But they were at home and facing a Miami team I have little to no regard for (see Jacksonville writeup!). You may ask why I'd have more regard for a 5-9 Lions team. Well, they're at home this week and getting roughly the same number Miami did LW in Minnesota. This despite a YTD point differential that's significantly better. A decimated Lions offense has had its trouble scoring in recent weeks, but be aware that they've lost by more than a TD only one time in the last five games and that was to a Rams team that scored late. 

The Vikings put up 41 last week, but that was after scoring a total of just 17 pts the two weeks prior. When it comes to winning big games, QB Kirk Cousins does not exactly have the finest resume. Minnesota has been favored twice on the road this year (1-1 ATS), but never by more than a field goal. Consider that they were asked to lay only three against the Jets, who are certainly a worse team that Detroit. This is a division game and the final home game for the Lions, so they should "show up." They have revenge for a poor showing in Minnesota back in Week 9 and aren't often a dog in this price range in their own stadium. 8* Detroit

10* Washington (4:30 ET): I admit that this is a bit of an "ugly" play, but I'm going to stick with my numbers here. The numbers say Tennessee is way overvalued here and that's likely due to the combination of the "must-win" nature of the game for them (to stay viable in the playoff hunt) and the fact the Redskins are starting third-string QB Josh Johnson. But Johnson did lead the 'Skins to a victory last week, 16-13 over the Jaguars, in his first NFL start in seven seasons. Also, just because Tennessee "must win" here, doesn't mean they will cover. Washington, believe it or not, is also still alive in the playoff hunt. Take the points. 

Tennessee is not built to cover a spread this large. They average only 19.1 PPG and while it was shutout win last week (17-0 over the Giants), we usually don't see them win by that kind of margin. The Titans have only been favored in 4 of 13 games this season. Three of those instances are the last three weeks! While they beat the Giants and Jags by a combined 47-9 margin the L2 wks, remember they were also "tooth and nail" w/ the Jets here at home three weeks ago. Five of their eight wins this season have been by four points or less. This figures to be a low-scoring game and that makes taking the points an attractive option. 

Obviously, the focus for the Redskins defense here will be stopping RB Derrick Henry, who ran over both the Giants and Jags. But consider that the number of rushing yards Henry has the L2 wks (408) accounts for nearly half his season total. Titans QB Marcus Mariota did not thrown a TD pass in either game. Johnson actually looked fairly competent for Washington LW, completing 16 of 25 passes in a come from behind effort to beat Jacksonville. The Redskins have a good defense that can keep them in this one. Meanwhile, Tennessee's defense just lost a key piece w/ CB Logan Ryan suffering a broken leg. The only time the Titans have been favored by more than a TD this year was the Jets game when they won by only four. Oddsmakers are making you pay a premium on them here. 10* Washington

8* Western Michigan (4:00 ET): The big story here is WMU lost its starting QB (Jon Wassnick) late in the regular season. They went 1-2 SU w/ backup Kaleb Eleby (true frosh) as the starter, but that one win came in the regular season finale, as 6.5-pt underdogs, against MAC Champ Northern Illinois. With all the added prep time that comes w/ a bowl game, I'm not worried at all about Eleby coming in as the starter as he's posted solid numbers (917 yds passing, 6 TDs and 64.5 completion percentage). The Broncos should be highly motivated here by being such big underdogs and I think the oddsmakers have overadjusted as BYU is a pretty mediocre team this year. Take the points. 

BYU experienced a much different finish to its regular season as it lost to rival Utah in the latest installment of the "Holy War." It was their eighth consecutive loss to the Utes and perhaps the most painful one yet. That's because the Cougars blew a 20-0 halftime lead in Salt Lake City. Despite that game taking place weeks ago, my guess is that BYU still isn't over what happened. So, emotionally, the two teams in this year's Idaho Potato Bowl come in w/ very different mindsets. Western Michigan is off a big upset that gave them plenty of confidence while BYU is off the most deflating loss possible.

BYU also starts a true freshman at QB, so it's not like they enjoy tremendous experience at that position either. I simply can't envision them covering this double digit spread, which seems to be based on name recognition only. The Cougars did have that big win at Wisconsin early in the year, but otherwise did not perform well against bowl teams and finished the regular season just 6-6 SU. I just don't see them being worthy of laying double digits on a neutral field. While it's true they have plenty of experience playing on the blue turf (game is in Boise), none of that experience is good as they're 0-5 SU all-time here. Last year saw a 6-6 Western Michigan team get snubbed from playing in a bowl, so the players should be highly motivated Friday afternoon. 8* Western Michigan

10* Ohio (8:00 ET): San Diego State really hit the skids late in the season, losing four of its last five games and the lone win was a come from behind effort against a bad New Mexico team. This is simply not the same Aztecs team that we're used to seeing under HC Rocky Long. I played against them a couple of times down the stretch, once when they failed to cover at New Mexico (were -12.5) and then again the following week when they lost outright (as 24-pt favorites) at home to UNLV. The Aztecs' biggest problem is they simply don't score. Even when they put 30 on the board in the regular season finale vs. Hawaii, they still lost. For the year, they're averaging just 19.6 PPG away from home! They finished the year 7-5 SU, but 3-9 ATS. To me, they are one of the easiest fades this entire bowl season. I'll be laying the points here. 

Ohio was probably the best team in the MAC this year, even though they did not get a chance to play for a Conference Championship. This was also the case last season and the Bobcats went out and crushed UAB 41-6 in the Bahamas Bowl. Now they are in position to win B2B bowls for just the second time in program history, which woud be a nice treat for HC Frank Solich, who is now the oldest active coach in the country after the retirement of Kansas State's Bill Snyder. Unlike SDSU, the Bobcats can score. They average 41.2 PPG (10th in FBS) and are led by QB O'Rourke, who accounted for over 3,000 total yds (passing + rushing) and 35 touchdowns in the regular season. 

Ohio finished strong down the stretch. They come in having won five of six, scoring 49 or more pts in all five victories. The one loss, 30-28 at rival Miami, is what cost them the MAC East. Three of their four losses this year were by four points or less. After losing to Miami, the Bobcats then destroyed division champ Buffalo 52-17. Their strength of schedule was very comparable to San Diego State this season, so there's no edge there. I put little stock in the fact the Aztecs are 13-0-1 all-time against the MAC as Long has struggled in bowl games. Ohio is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games where the spread is three points or less (either way) and I like them to roll in the Frisco Bowl. 10* Ohio

10* Carolina (8:20 ET): This is essentially a "do-or-die" spot for the Panthers. Not only in terms of their current playoff standing, but also w/ their poor history against the Saints. Carolina comes into Monday night having dropped five in a row. That's the longest losing skid in the league right now. If there is one silver lining, they've generally been losing close games. Their last four losses have all been by a TD or less (been favored in every game). But there's no sugarcoating the rivalry w/ the Saints, which has seen the Panthers fail to cover six of the last seven meetings. They say "it's hard to beat the same time THREE times in the same season," but don't tell that to Carolina as they lost three times to New Orleans last year. They did cover in the playoff loss after going 0-2 ATS in the regular season. 

I think everyone considers the Saints to be the best team in the league right now, or they at least ought to. They've got the best record (11-2 SU), the best point differential (+164) and are 10-3 vs. the number. But there have been some signs that their dominance has waned. Two weeks ago, they went to Dallas and played - easily - their worst game of the season, getting beat 13-10. Then last week saw them have to rally back from a 14-3 second half hole against Tampa Bay. Total yardage was basically even in that game and the key was a blocked punt that swung the game. It was the second straight week that the Saints' vaunted offense was held below 300 total yards. 

This is a tricky spot for New Orleans as they're playing on the road for a third straight week. The sense of urgency is no longer there for them w/ the Rams losing last night. That Rams loss gives the Saints a very good chance of earning homefield advantage in the NFC half of the playoff draw. Meanwhile, Carolina should come out very inspired here. They're a much better team at home (5-1 SU) and this is just the second time all year they'll be a home dog (1st was a 36-21 win over Baltimore). They also have triple revenge against the Saints. The underdog has cashed seven of the past eight times in this NFC South rivarly. The Panthers are also 3-0 ATS their L3x as a home dog. 10* Carolina 

8* Pittsburgh (4:25 ET): We all know the story here. New England has been a real nemesis for the Steelers through the year. The Patriots have won and covered the L5 meetings, which includes an AFC Championship Game (2016). All-time against Tom Brady, the Black & Gold are a horrible 2-11 SU and ATS. All but two of those games have come w/ Ben Roethlisberger at QB. Of course, the poor history vs. the Pats is only secondary to what's going on presently in Pittsburgh. After a 7-2-1 start, the Steelers have lost three in a row, putting their playoff status in precarious position.

Another Big Ben nemesis, Oakland, stunned the Steelers last week. Roethlisberger was injured and missed most of the 2nd half, but did come back to lead a TD drive late. But the defense couldn't hold and Pittsburgh has still never won in Oakland during Big Ben's career. That followed a pair of frustrating, one-score losses to the Chargers (blew 23-7 halftime lead) and Broncos (had 527-308 edge in total yds, but were -4 in turnovers). Though the postseason is no longer guaranteed, this is still a good team. They average 34.5 PPG at home and IMO, still deserve to be favored here.

New England is off its own stunning loss. Their came in the most improbable fashion possible as they gave up a multi-lateral TD on the final play at Miami last week. I'm sure you've seen it by this point. Laying a short number and off a SU loss, one can only assume the Patriots will be an attractive wager this week. But the reality of the matter is this team is only 3-4 SU on the road this year w/ losses to Jacksonville, Detroit, Tennessee and Miami. No doubt, head to head history played a role in where the oddsmakers set this line, but the Patriots are no longer what they once were. Putting pressure on Brady is key to beating him and the Steelers' D leads the league in sacks w/ 45. 8* Pittsburgh

10* Minnesota (1:00 ET): Fresh off the heels off a Monday night loss to Seattle, the Vikings decided to fire OC John DeFilippo. Anyone who watched the telecast probably wasn't surprised. The offense looked impotent as the announcers buried DeFilippo to no end. But truthfully, Minnesota didn't play nearly as poorly as the 21-7 final suggests. They actually had a slight edge in total yards in a game they trailed only 3-0 heading into the fourth quarter. When it was a 6-0 game, the Vikings had two chances to score, but were stopped on downs at the goal line, then later had a FG blocked in controversial fashion (Seattle's Bobby Wagner should have been called for "leaping.") To make matters worse, the Seahawks got a late defensive TD to ice the game. After the coordinator change, I expect the Vikings to respond well and deliver one of their best games of the year, at home, this week.

Miami is 7-6 SU and anyone that has a TV knows how their game last week ended. Down 33-27 to the Patriots, they pulled off an all-time miracle on the final play of the game. My congrats to them for a season highlight worth celebrating. But here's the reality: the Dolphins are not a very good football team and extremely lucky to have a winning record. They've been outscored by 55 pts this year, a differential that's slightly worse than the Jaguars & Falcons, both of whom are 4-9 SU. This kind of overachieving has gone on throughout Adam Gase's tenure here. Over the last three seasons, Miami has been outscored by 184 points despite a 23-22 SU record. Every Dolphins win this year has been by eight points or less. Five of their six losses have come by double digits. The overachieving ends Sunday. 

Both teams desperately need to win here to stay in playoff hunt in their respective conferences. But Minnesota is at home, where they're 4-2 SU/ATS, including a perfect 3-0 as chalk in the -3.5 to -7 range. QB Kirk Cousins really is better than he's given credit for; he's just operating behind a questionable offensive line. With this line hovering around a TD, the Vikings are a great value (were -9.5 on the lookahead line). Not only did it take a miracle to win last week, but the previous week saw Miami outgained 415-175, yet come away w/ a 21-17 victory @ Buffalo when Bills QB Allen missed a wide open WR on the game's final play. What this play boils down to is my lack of respect for the Dolphins and their phony record. They've lost five in a row on the road. 10* Minnesota  

analysis soon

10* Denver (8:20 ET): The lookahead line for this Saturday night matchup was Denver laying six points. So last week's respective results certainly had a significant impact on the oddsmakers. Cleveland beat Carolina, 26-20, at home while Denver went out and lost to lowly San Francisco, 20-14 as three-point chalk. The oddsmakers are now saying these teams are basically even, giving Denver the token number for homefield advantage. But I still believe that a gap does exist between these two teams. Lest we forget that the Broncos had won and covered three straight before taking the "L" last week. They've been hit hard by some injuries, but should still be able to defeat a team that is just 1-26 SU its last 27 road games. Lay the short number here.

Let us also not forget the last time Cleveland was off a win. They'd just beaten the Bengals (snapping a 25-game road losing streak) and headed to Houston where they were completely outclassed by the Texans in a 29-13 loss (shutout in the 1H). Last week saw the Browns bounce back, at home, over a slumping Carolina team. Rookie QB Baker Mayfield has brought alot of excitement to this downtrodden organization, but I can't help but think expectations are a little TOO high right now w/ actual talk of running the table and making the playoffs. It'll be interesting to see how Mayfield operates, on the road (and in primetime) against a defense that has allowed 22 pts or fewer in five straight games. The Browns' defense remains pretty poor as it ranks 31st in yards allowed. 

These teams have a history against one another that goes back to the late 1980's when they were the top two teams in the AFC. But that was long ago. Since returning to the league in 1999, the Browns are 0-7 SU vs. the Broncos. I think Denver's stock was a little too high going into last week's game vs. San Francisco, but now it's a "buy low" situation off the loss. This is a team that holds recent wins over both the Chargers and Steelers. Granted that was before losing CB Chris Harris and WR Emmanuel Sanders. Those injuries definitely played a role in losing to the 49ers, but I think the team was also overconfident heading into last week. That will no longer be the case here. The Broncos are still the better team here and getting a home game on a short week is always an advantage. 10* Denver

10* Fresno State (3:30 ET): Even though Fresno State (#23) is ranked, I think that a lot of people are going to do a double take when they seem them favored here over a Pac 12 team w/ a "name" head coach, Herm Edwards' Arizona State Sun Devils. But the Bulldogs deserve to be favored here and I believe will handle their business. To me, they are the BEST non-P5 team in America. (Yes, I'm including UCF in that discussion). FSU went 11-2 SU in the regular season and plays tremendous defense. They allow just 13.7 points per game, which was tied w/ Clemson for the second fewest in the entire country. Though bowl games aren't typically noted for their defense, I believe this Bulldogs team has enough pride to pack its D for Vegas as it looks to win its 22nd game in the L2 seasons. Lay the short number. 

Herm Edwards proved all the critics wrong in his 1st season in Tempe. He led the Sun Devils to a 7-5 SU record and they were never blown out. All five losses were by 7 points or less, four of them coming exactly by a seven-point margin, plus they lost by only two at Oregon. But they also won four games by a field goal or less. Having played so many close games, you might think playing ASU as an underdog would be ideal. After all, they did go 5-2 ATS when taking points in the regular season. But playing this game w/o WR N'keal Harry (skipping it to prepare for the NFL Draft) is not only the harsh reality of College Football, but just plain problematic. Harry had 73 catches for 1,000+ yards and nine touchdowns this year. That's a ton of production that ASU simply won't be able to replace in this game and going against one of the top defenses in the country makes things even tougher.

Fresno State has been one of the top ATS teams in the country the L2 seasons under Jeff Tedford, going 19-6-2 ATS overall. So having to lay such a short number w/ them is pretty nice. Yes, they're facing a Pac 12 school, but the Bulldogs just beat Boise State in the Mt West Champ Game (on the blue turf!) and won't be intimidated. This game is being played at MWC venue, the Sam Boyd Silver Bowl, home of UNLV. So that's another advantage for Fresno State. They won here just last month. Granted, it won't be as easy as 48-3 (destroyed UNLV), but it's still an edge. These teams had one common opponent during the regular season, San Diego State, and while Fresno State dominated the Aztecs (won 24-13), Arizona State lost to them 28-21. 10* Fresno State

10* Kansas City (8:20 ET): This one is for "all the marbles" in the AFC West. Well, perhaps that statement is a bit premature. After Thursday night, both the Chargers and Chiefs have two games to go. If Los Angeles were to win Thursday night, then they'd be tied w/ KC atop the division at 11-3 and we'd have to see how things play out.  But if the Chiefs win here, they clinch the division as they'll have a two-game lead on the Bolts and own the tiebreaker. One of the major stories going into this showdown is how KC has absolutely OWNED the rivalry. Head to head, they've beaten the Chargers NINE consecutive times (last loss was 2013). The most recent win was Week 1, 38-28, as a 3-point dog. The Chiefs are 7-2 ATS during that nine-game SU win streak. 

When the Chiefs beat the Chargers back in Week 1, little did any of us know the kind of trans-formative season that QB Patrick Mahomes was set to have. Mahomes is rewriting the record books, becoming just the third 1st or 2nd year QB to throw for over 4,000 yds and 40 TD passes in the same season. Dan Marino and Kurt Warner are the two others. Mahomes, now the betting favorite to win NFL MVP, has thrown for 4,300 yds and 43 touchdowns. Both Marino and Warner made it to the Super Bowl in their 4000+ yard, 40+ TD seasons. Under Mahomes direction, the Chiefs have the top offense in the league, averaging 36.2 PPG. They are unbeaten at home and getting this game on a short week is a huge advantage. 

You might recall that I played against KC last week as they squeaked by Baltimore, 27-24 in overtime. I was a winner as the Ravens were +7. Why the quick switch to the Chiefs, especially in light of how critical I was of their defense in last week's analysis? Well, I don't think LA is going to be able to replicate the kind of pressure Baltimore's top ranked defense got on Mahomes. Also, the Chargers have a major injury concern at RB w/ Melvin Gordon and possibly Austin Eckler both out. Without Gordon, they were able to beat both the Steelers and Bengals. But remember they were down 23-7 at the half in Pittsburgh and Cincinnati is a bad team they only beat by five points. While I'm a fan of what the Chargers have done this season, they've really beaten up on a lot of bad teams. They are just 3-7 SU the L10 times they've been an underdog of a field goal or more. 10* Kansas City 

10* Baltimore (1:00 ET): While all the talk in Baltimore right now centers around the QB position, the Ravens have a significant edge defensively in this matchup and that will be what carries them this week in Kansas City. Currently, the Ravens stop unit is #1 in the league in both scoring and total defense, giving up just 17.8 points and 281.7 yards per game. That makes them extremely attractive to me as an underdog, especially one of this size. Compare those defensive numbers to Kansas City, who 31st in yards allowed (417.0 per game) and 27th in points allowed (27.3). I feel the road dog easily stays within the number here and I give them a great shot at the outright upset. 

Now the Chiefs do have the league's top scoring offense (ridiculous 37.0 PPG) and are #3 in yards (437.2). But they did give up 33 points to a hideous Raiders team last week (ATS win for me!). That's an Oakland offense that averages only 18.3 PPG. The Chiefs' defensive numbers have been significantly better at home, but that's because they've also drawn some of the weaker opponents on the schedule here. It also remains to be seen how this offense performs w/o RB Kareem Hunt. You know the story there. Hunt's services certainly weren't needed to get by the lowly Raiders. But the ferocious Ravens defense will be a different story altogether.

Baltimore is 3-0 since Lamar Jackson took over as the starting QB for an injured Joe Flacco. To me, it would be crazy to go back to Flacco. The offense has been able to run the ball far more effectively w/ Jackson in the game (239 YPG) due to Jackson being a threat to run himself (265 yds). The Ravens do have a greater sense of urgency than the Chiefs, whose inclusion in the playoffs is all but assured at this point. Baltimore is fighting for its playoff life, trying to get in either as a Wild Card or the AFC North winner. Only two offenses have topped 24 points against the Ravens defense this year. In his three starts so far, Jackson has benefited from that defense allowing an average of just 211 YPG. They'll keep this one close. 10* Baltimore

10* Atlanta (1:00 ET): Green Bay is a total mess right now. They've lost five of their six last games, including at home to Arizona last week, which cost Mike McCarthy his job. I think the notion that they'll receive some sort of "boost" in the wake of the firing of their head coach is "wishful thinking" on the part of the Cheeseheads. Of course, the Falcons have been every bit as disappointing as the Packers this year as they're 4-8 SU (GB is 4-7-1) and have lost four in a row (also 0-4 ATS). But they at least have a stable coaching staff, plus they're getting nearly a touchdown this week at Lambeau Field. I had this line closer to a field goal. Take the points.

Now four of Green Bay's last five losses have come by seven points or less. It would be unfair to pin the whole demise on McCarthy, but it was probably time for him to go, especially if he wasn't getting along w/ Aaron Rodgers. Joe Philbin takes over on an interim basis. You may remember him from the non-descript job he did in three-plus seasons as the HC down in Miami. (He had previously served as OC in GB during the Super Bowl season). Philbin is a lame-duck coach as the Packers are simply playing out the string. Despite having Rodgers, this team simply isn't very good. The offense has only managed 17 pts in B2B games and the defense has totally fallen off a cliff.

It's a somewhat similar story w/ the Falcons, who haven't even scored 20 points in a game since Week 9 when they were coming out of their bye. Last week was a new low as they were held to 131 total yards - at home - in a 26-16 loss to Baltimore. Now it should be pointed out that the Ravens have the #1 defense in football. So it should be easier sledding for Matt Ryan and company this week, even though they are on the road. Pretty clearly, there's enough disappointment to go around in this matchup, but I just don't see the Packers as being seven points better than the Falcons right now, even at home. 10* Atlanta

8* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): Here's the other game where I was a winner in the first meeting. Like Colts-Texans, boy, has a lot changed since then. In this case, New Orleans was a 10-pt favorite at home against Tampa Bay. That doesn't sound out of the ordinary, but the fact that the Bucs won 48-40 sure was shocking at the time. It's even more shocking in retrospect considering the kind of season the Saints have had. They didn't lose again until last week, another time I happened to play against them. Obviously, with the revenge angle in full effect, the Saints are going to be a popular choice this week. But for a second time this season, they are overvalued against the Bucs. Take the points. 

Not only did the Saints win 10 in a row after losing to the Bucs, they were a covering machine too. A nine-game ATS win streak was also snapped last week in Dallas. The Cowboys' defense shockingly shut down Drew Brees and company to the tune of just 10 points and 176 total yards. That was easily a season-low in total yardage, but also the fewest points scored by the Saints in any game in three years. Now they're going up against a significantly worse defense here in Tampa. But they'll have to contend w/ an offense that has the ability to trade points w/ them. This is also another road game and outdoors to boot. 

The Bucs, not the Saints or Chiefs, lead the league in total yardage. Now some of that has to do w/ always being in shootouts because of the defense. But whether its been Ryan Fitzpatrick or Jameis Winston at QB, this offense has moved the ball. It was Fitzpatrick at the helm in the Week 1 upset of the Saints, but Winston hardly represents a downrgrade from the ultimately turnover-prone Fitzpatrick. Winston has guided the team to wins the L2 weeks, over the 49ers and Panthers, both here at home. The defense also showed up in both wins, giving up just 26 points total. Will they possibly give up that many (or more) in this game? There's a good chance. But the Bucs are getting a lot of points at home and I'll take 'em. Something I mentioned in last week's analysis is that the Saints had not been favored by more than a TD on the road since 2013 (didn't cover). Now it's happening in B2B weeks. Tampa Bay has not been a home dog of a TD or more since 2014. 8* Tampa Bay

8* NY Jets (1:00 ET): The Jets are a better team than Buffalo. That may not be saying much, but it's true. I know the Flyboys have one fewer win than the Bills (3 vs. 4) and were destroyed 41-10 at home by the Bills just a few weeks ago. However, despite the respective records and the destruction that occurred in the first meeting, the Jets still have a far better YTD point differential (-64 vs. -115). In fact, the Bills have the third worst point differential in all of football. For that first meeting, the Jets were seven-point favorites. Now they're getting about a field goal. I know it was a blowout, but the line shift has been too significant. Take the points.

This is the first time Buffalo will be favored this year. Every other team in the league has been favored at least twice. You've got a Bills' offense averaging an AFC-low 14.8 PPG. Expect them to win by a comfortable margin - against anyone - seems to be wishful thinking from my vantage point. I realize that they've played a little bit better of late. But they're coming in off a crushing defeat LW in Miami where rookie QB Josh Allen failed to hit a wide open receiver (who was in the end zone) on the final play. I still have serious doubts about Allen as a potential leader of this franchise. Also, might the recent uptick in performance lead to a - gasp - sense of overconfidence w/ the Bills (along w/ being favored for the first time). 

The Jets are also off a crushing loss, theirs coming at Tennessee. They led 16-0, but lost 26-22, giving up the GW TD in the final minute of a game they'd never trailed in previously. It was their sixth loss in a row overall and HC Todd Bowles is definitely coaching for his job at this point. It looks like rookie QB Sam Darnold will return this week, which is good. Josh McCown just didn't have it anymore. The Jets have lost 7 out of the last 10 meetings vs. the Bills, so the players and coaching staff should be out for revenge. I just don't think I could ever endorse Buffalo as a favorite. 8* NY Jets

10* Army (3:00 ET): For the first time since 2001, Army is favored to win this game. They should be. The Knights are 9-2 SU, reigning C-in-C Trophy winners and simply a much better team than Navy this season. Pardon the terrible pun, but the Midshipmen have been somewhat "lost at sea" in 2018. They won't be going to a bowl game this year, the first time that's been the case since 2002, which was the year they started their historic 14-year win streak over Army. That came to an end two years ago in Baltimore. I was on Army that day, as 5.5-pt underdogs, as they won 21-17. Last year was another Army win, this time 14-13 as 2.5 pt dogs. Lay the points as the Knight deserve to be double-digit favorites in this one.

Navy enters this game w/ a 3-9 record, their worst SU mark in any season since ... 2002. That was Paul Johnson's first year in Annapolis and he just retired from the Georgia Tech job. This particular Navy team is very bad defensively. They allow almost 35 points per game while also giving up 6.65 yards per play, the 11th worst mark in the entire country. While any matchup of two service academies (including Air Force) is typically low-scoring, I believe Army will still be able to do plenty of scoring in this one. Since winning a game in a driving rainstorm vs. Memphis in Week 2, only one FBS opponent (Temple) has failed to score more than 29 points against the Midshipmen. Navy has regularly blown out this season w/ six of its nine losses coming by double digits. The Memphis win was fortunate (weather). Since beating FCS Lehigh the following week, the Middies are just 1-8 SU the L9 games w/ that one win coming against a 3-9 Tulsa team, at home. 

Army gives up only 18.7 PPG (17th in FBS) and 15.5 first downs per game (6th), giving them a huge edge on the defensive side of the ball. Their only two losses this year were to Oklahoma and Duke, both on the road, and they took the Sooners into overtime! Since that OT loss in Norman, the Black Knights are 7-0 SU, winning five of those games by at least two touchdowns. We know these teams run similar, if not identical, offenses. But Navy has posted its worst rushing season in a decade, averaging just 5.0 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Army can actually turn to the pass as they average 10.5 yards per attempt through the air. Third downs are also key here w/ Army leading the country at a 57% conversion rate. Navy is only 39%. 10* Army

10* Washington (8:20 ET): Just a little over a week ago, the Eagles seemed to be dead and buried. They were coming off a humiliating 48-7 loss to the Saints (biggest lost EVER for reigning SB champ!) and down 19-3 at home to the last place Giants. But then, they "woke up," rallying for a 25-22 win despite getting outgained by the G-Men. Now, things appear to be looking up in Philly. Sure, the team is only 5-6 SU, a far cry from LY's record. But they're favored Monday night and a win would keep them within just one game of first place Dallas, who they'll play next week. At the very worst, the second Wild Card in the NFC is still in play as only five teams in the conference currently have more than six victories. But are we THAT sure the Eagles are back?

Washington's season seems to be trending in the opposite direction as Philly. They were in first place just two weeks ago, at 6-3 SU. But two losses later and there are more questions than answers. The biggest one is at the quarterback position where the team is still trying to get over the shock of losing Alex Smith for the rest of the season. I think veteran Colt McCoy has come in and played admirably though despite little time to prepare. He led two scoring drives in a 23-21 loss to Houston, then last week (on a very short turnaround) he completed 24 of 38 passes for 268 yards against Dallas (did have 3 INT's). I'm not convinced that this team is more than marginally worse w/ McCoy at QB than they were with Smith. Remember that Dallas defense just held Drew Brees in check!

Though it gave up 31 pts to a surging Cowboys team on Thanksgiving, the Redskins still have a pretty good defense. That defense seems to travel well too as it gives up just 19.2 PPG on the road. I would not be surprised if this is a low-scoring game, which obviously then favors the underdog. The Eagles have not been good in the favorite role this season, going just 2-7 ATS w/ five outright losses. They have also failed to cover five straight home games. The Redskins are 6-2 ATS as underdogs this year w/ five outright wins. So the respective roles seem to suit Washington much better. The Eagles did sweep the season series LY, but it's pretty clear they aren't as strong a team in 2018. Remember they are decimated by injuries in the secondary. The defense is also allowing a league worst 6.03 yards per rush the L6 wks. McCoy and Washington have also had plenty of time to prepare here, having not played since Thanksgiving. Take the points. 10* Washington

8* Pittsburgh (8:20 ET): Though slightly favored and at home, I get the sense that in the minds of the public, the Steelers are almost "underdogs" here. They lost last week, 24-17 at Denver. That loss came on the heels of what should be considered a very fortunate win at Jacksonville the week prior. However, investigating the box score from last week shows that the Steelers actually played well. They outgained the Broncos 527-308. The problem was they - specifically QB Ben Roethlisberger - could not protect the football and finished -4 in turnovers. It was a similar story w/ the escape in Jacksonville where they had a clear edge in total yds nearly undone by three TO's. Back at home Sunday night, I suspect the giveaways will cease. I'm going to lay the short number. 

Looking at the Chargers season, a pretty clear pattern emerges. They've beaten up on a lot of bad teams: Wins have come against the Cardinals, Raiders twice, Titans, Browns, 49ers and Bills. They did win at Seattle, but also lost at home to Denver. Their other two losses were to the Rams and Chiefs, two of the best teams in the league. The Steelers are stronger on paper than any team LA has beaten all year. Here, the Chargers will be going into a hostile environment w/o their top running back, Melvin Gordon. This is a big deal. The Steelers defense has been very good this year, the last six games in particular. The 24 pts allowed LW were the most since September. But they barely allowed over 300 total yds. They allowed fewer than 300 total yds each of the previous five games! 

For the year, the Steelers rank 6th in total defense. The Chargers are 9th, but have given up slightly less points (and done so against a far less challenging schedule). The Steelers give up slightly less yardage on a per play basis. The offenses are basically dead even in this matchup, but the Chargers take a major hit w/o RB Gordon. Remember that the last time the Steelers played at home, they absolutely destroyed Carolina, 52-21, and Big Ben had a near perfect passer rating. My call is that Roethlisberger cuts way down on the turnovers Sunday night and leads his team to a comfortable victory. Don't be surprised if he and fellow '04 Draft class alum Philip Rivers see each other again in the playoffs. 8* Pittsburgh

8* Oakland (4:05 ET): This is obviously a real "hold your nose" and take the points kind of situation. Because of that, my analysis will be a little more brief than usual. That doesn't mean I like the play any less compared to any other normal selection, because I do like it quite a bit. It's just that there's little the Raiders or Chiefs have done this year that would convince rational minds that the former is the right side here. But this one is all about the number; testing the limits of how many points the public is willing to lay w/ a good team against a bad one, even if it is on the road. For me, this is an overlay. Take the points. 

Over the last 30 seasons, Kansas City has been a double-digit road favorite just twice. Once was back in 1992 against a historically bad Seahawks team. The other time was LY against the Giants (who finished 3-13). They did not cover either game. In fact, they lost outright to the Giants, 12-9 in overtime! The spread for this matchup against the Raiders is almost unprecedented in nature, at least for the Chiefs. They've never been favored by two touchdowns on the road as far back as I have data (1989). Oakland has been a double digit home dog six times in the last 10 seasons. The last time was just three weeks ago and they lost to the Chargers 20-6. They were only 10-pt dogs then and even got out to an early lead. Total yardage was basically even in that game, the difference was the Raiders turning it over twice in the red zone. 

The Raiders have never been a home dog of more than two touchdowns, so again, this line is somewhat unprecedented. Note ALL double digit home dogs have gone 82-65-5 ATS over the L30 seasons. There have only been 25 instances of a home team getting 14 or more points the L30 seasons and only one of those came since 2012. Kansas City is not w/o issue heading into this game. They will be w/o WR Sammy Watkins and RB Kareem Hunt finds himself embroiled in controversy after TMZ released video of him kicking and shoving a woman. Thus, his status for this game could be in doubt. Then you have a Chiefs defense that is surrendering 34.3 points and 457 yards per game on the road. They are allowing 6.7 yards per play. All those numbers rank near the bottom of the league. Oakland did win a game two weeks ago. So much for "brief analysis" ... I like this one! 8* Oakland

10* Detroit (1:00 ET): The Rams are one of the top teams in the league and coming off their bye. Those two factors alone guarantee a large spread. But remember that the last time we saw them, they were winning perhaps the greatest NFL regular season game ever played, 54-51 over the Chiefs. So it's really not a surprise to see them so heavily favored this week in Detroit. But, to me, the oddsmakers know what the public likes and this looks like a classic overlay. Just two weeks ago, Detroit was my *10* Game of the Week and upset a Carolina team that had won five of its previous seven games. The Lions are also off a bit of a "mini-bye" here having last played a game on Thanksgiving. They're too good to be getting double digits at home. Take the points.

Somewhat lost in the Rams' impressive 10-1 start to the season is that their heavily-hyped defense has been a clear disappointment. Twice in the last three weeks they've given up 45 or more points. Now those games were against the Saints & Chiefs, the two top offenses in the league. But they've also allowed 27 or more points in six of the last eight games. They allow a frightening 6.5 yards per play for the year and that number gets even higher when you factor out the first two teams they faced, Oakland and Arizona. So my point is that Detroit is going to be able to score plenty of points in this game. Add in what the oddsmakers are giving them & the Rams' offense will have to be at its best to cover this spread. 

The Lions had to withstand a failed two-point attempt to beat Carolina two weeks ago, 20-19. Well, they also could have easily upset Chicago Thanksgiving. But Matt Stafford threw a pick-six in the 4Q to lose the game, 23-16. Now that was against an offense led by backup QB Chase Daniel. I realize the Lions offense is no longer the same w/o WR Golden Tate (traded) and RB Kerryon Johnson (questionable to play here). But Matt Patricia's defense turned in multiple strong efforts in November and I think will be highly motivated here. The Rams have been favored by double digits only one other time this year - Week 2 at home vs. Arizona. The last time they closed as DD road favorites was the "Greatest Show on Turf" days. Detroit has not been a DD home dog since '09, Matt Stafford's rookie season (year after they went 0-16 SU). 10* Detroit

10* Georgia (4:00 ET): Alabama is in a bit of a unique position as they go for a 4th SEC Championship Game victory in the last five seasons (remember, they didn't play in LY's game despite going onto win the CFP). They really don't need to win this game to ensure a spot in the top four of the CFP rankings. Now, obviously they'll WANT to win the game (especially after not being involved last year) and Nick Saban doesn't allow for lookaheads, letdowns or anything else of that nature. But Georgia, easily the best team Bama has faced this year, does have to win Saturday to make the CFP. This is obviously a rematch of last year's National Title Game, which was won by Bama 26-23 in overtime. Now UGA will have to face QB Tua Tagovailoa for a full game and not just a half. The Tide are better this year, but I'm not sure they're 13 pts better than Georgia in what should be a very hostile environment (game played in Atlanta). I'll take the points!

Alabama is a perfect 4-0 SU vs. Georgia over the last decade, despite none of those games taking place in Tuscaloosa. Last year's win was obviously the most memorable of the quartet, given what was at stake. The game saw Bama spot UGA a 13-0 halftime led, but then came Tua and the rest is history. This Alabama team is probably Saban's best (which is saying something), but Georgia will also be its toughest opponent. I'm a contrarian by nature, but have stepped in front of this Bama train only once this season. It was w/ Mississippi State, who covered despite not scoring a single point. 

Since suffering its only loss of the season (36-16 at LSU), Georgia has won all of its games by at least 17 points. The big story in that LSU loss was them being -4 in turnovers. This Georgia team isn't quite as strong as last year, but that's been accounted for by the oddsmakers. Last year's National Title Game had a 3.5-point spread. A 10-pt adjustment just seems like too much even after factoring in Bama being better and UGA being slightly worse. The key here is - unlike most of Bama's opponents this year - Georgia actually has an offense. The Dawgs average more than 40 PPG and while it's highly unlikely they'll get to that number Saturday afternoon, I believe they are certainly capable of scoring enough to cover this generous spread, which I did NOT expect to be in the double digits. If Bama was able to get up by more than the spread, I could certainly envision a "backdoor" scenario for the underdog. Either way, Georgia covers. 10* Georgia

10* Oklahoma (12:00 ET): In the build for this game, you're likely to hear two trends spouted quite a bit. One, Texas has covered six straight times against Oklahoma, including a 48-45 upset as 7-pt underdogs earlier this year. Two, Longhorns HC Tom Herman is 12-1 ATS as a dog in his coaching career (including at Houston) w/ NINE outright upsets. So I expect UT to be quite the popular underdog this week. But it is Oklahoma w/ more to play for here as a win could (and should!) send the Sooners to the College Football Playoff. Then there is the revenge angle as they have a shot at avenging their lone regular season defeat. If they do so, that should impress the committee enough to ensure their place in the top four. I'll take it a step further and say that if OU wins big here (and I obviously think they can), then they deserve to jump Notre Dame for the #3 spot (won't happen though). 

There is no doubt that Texas will enter this game w/ plenty of confidence. It is again at a neutral field and the L5 RRR's have all been decided by seven points or less. Instead of the traditional meeting place of the Cotton Bowl in Dallas (1st Saturday of every October), this time the rivals will play in nearby Arlington, in Cowboys Stadium. Given the stakes, a case can be made for this being one of the most important OU-Texas games EVER. It's a spot I'm not sure the Longhorns are ready for. Sure, they almost always play close games (9 of their 12 reg season games decided by less than 7 pts, went 6-3 SU). But this is a team that lost to both Oklahoma State and Maryland. Though they did score a season-high 48 pts in the upset of OU back in October, I'm just not convinced that the Longhorns can must up the type of offensive performance necessary to keep pace here. The fast track of "Jerry World" will definitely favor Oklahoma.

Oklahoma leads the country w/ 50.3 points and 584 yards per game. They've scored at least 45 pts in every game but two, one of which was Army basically playing "keep away." They've scored more than 50 five of the last six weeks. Both teams had close calls last week w/ OU outlasting WVU 59-56 and Texas only beating Kansas 24-17. In the regular season meeting, note that while the Sooners did fall behind by as many as 21 points, they were -3 in turnovers and still rallied to tie the game late in the fourth quarter. Led by sensational QB Kyler Murray, they are definitely the better team here and actually undervalued. "Boomer Sooner" should pull off a "statement win" for the committee. Lay the points. 10* Oklahoma

8* Appalachian State (12:00 ET): App State is one of the larger favorites on Conference Championship Saturday, but the spread was actually higher when they face Louisiana in the regular season. A lot higher. In fact, the Mountaineers were bet all the way up to -26 against the Ragin Cajuns, a game they only won by 10 points (27-17). This rematch also takes place in Boone w/ the Sun Belt title now on the line. To me, App State has clearly been the class of the SBC all season long, losing only one conference game and it was Thursday night, on the road. I can't help but think that the oddsmakers have overadjusted their line for this Title Game as I don't think Louisiana is eight points better now than they were a month ago nor is App State eight points worse. The spread shouldn't have been near four touchdowns again, but three (meaning a 21-pt spread) certainly would have been appropriate. The value is on the favorite here. 

This is the first ever Sun Belt Conference Championship Game as the league split into two divisions for the 1st time this year. Appalachian State was expected to be here and largely handled its business during the regular season. They went 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS. Besides the Thursday night loss at Georgia Southern, the only other SU loss was an overtime game against Penn State all the way back in the season opener. Louisiana is a bit of a surprise entrant, having won the more wide open West Division w/ a 5-3 SU conference record (went 7-5 SU overall). They clinched their spot here w/ a 31-28 upset of LA Monroe last Saturday. While App State outscored Sun Belt teams by 147 points this year, Louisiana was only +24. In fact, the Ragin Cajuns were actually outscored over the course of their entire 2018 season. They are - pretty easily - the worst team playing in a Conference Title Game this weekend. 

Both of these offenses can score and certainly run the ball effectively. App State paces only slightly ahead of Louisiana in both metrics, averaging 37.3 points and 242 rush yds per contest (compared to Louisana's 33.7 and 230). But the key to this game lies on the defensive side of the ball. In eight conference games, ASU surrendered only 108 total points. They've allowed an average of just 15.4 PPG this year and didn't allow more than 17 in any of their nine wins. Louisiana allows 34.0 PPG for the season. When it comes to stopping the run (will be very important in this game!), ASU has allowed only 11 rushing TD's this year compared to 30 for Louisiana. Then there is the homefield advantage. ASU is 5-0 SU in Boone, winning by an average of 31.8 PPG! It should be noted that they led the Ragin Cajuns 27-10 in the regular season meeting before giving up a TD w/ just over a minute to go. This one won't be nearly as close. 8* Appalachian State

10* Northern Illinois (7:00 ET): Northern Illinois is no stranger to the MAC Title Game. This will be their seventh appearance in the last nine years and they've won three of the previous six times here. It didn't always look like a clear path for the Huskies to arrive again in 2018 and a poor finish to the regular season (upset in each of last two games) undeniably affected their stock heading into this game. But this is a team that took on a challenging non-conference sked w/ games against Utah, Florida State, Iowa and BYU. So that helps explain the difference in overall records with them and MAC East Champ Buffalo. The NIU offense is by no means pretty, but the defense is the MAC's best and allows only 2.6 yards per carry. In what shapes up as a low-scoring Championship Game, taking the points only seems logical.

While Northern Illinois went 7-5 SU and 6-6 ATS in the regular season, Buffalo was 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS. HC Lance Leipold has engineered a tremendous turnaround here with a team that won only two games two years ago. While improvement was expected here '18, few expected the Bulls to get this far. Most of their games this season were not close affairs w/ only two (both wins) decided by 7 pts or fewer. Both times Buffalo lost this year, they were beaten badly. Once was to Army, 42-13 as a seven-point home favorite. The other was one of my favorite plays of the season - when I took Ohio as a 2-pt dog to beat them and beat them the Bobcats did, 52-17. Buffalo is making just its second MAC Title Game appearance ever, the last one coming in 2008. 

Both teams sport outstanding defenses and while UB looks to have a decided edge on offense, I still give the dog an excellent job at pulling off the outright upset. Northern Illinois played - by far - the tougher schedule. Other than Toledo, Buffalo's resume contains little to no "quality" wins. While these teams didn't meet in the regular season, NIU did win at Buffalo last year. When looking at NIU's two game losing streak, be aware that they had nothing to play for in either game, having already sewn up the MAC West. I think Buffalo's two losses were more telling as the offense was contained both games, something I believe NIU can do here. The Huskies allowed 17 pts or fewer in half their games. One final thing to watch out for: no team has had more field goals (7) or punts (3) blocked than Buffalo. Northern Illinois is one of the top teams in the country at blocking kicks. 8* Northern Illinois

10* Dallas (8:20 ET): Anyone who has chosen to step in front of this Saints' train has been unsuccessful at the end of the day. Well, that's technically not true. I successfully played against them back in Week 1 when they lost outright, as 10-pt home favorites, 48-40 to Tampa Bay. But since then, they're a perfect 10-0 SU and ATS, ascending to the top of everyone's power rankings. If we're being honest, I've played against them the L2 wks, thinking they were laying too many points. Last week against Atlanta, they covered by a single point in a 31-17 victory. It should be pointed out that the Falcons lost THREE fumbles inside the red zone, which was basically the difference in the game. A game where they actually outgained the Saints, 366-312. At the very least, the -3 turnover margin cost Atlanta the cover. 

All of a sudden, Dallas appears to be in the drivers seat in the NFC East. They are 6-5 SU, tied w/ Washington (who they just beat) and one game up on Philadelphia (who they beat three weeks ago). They are my favorite to win the division as of now. Three straight wins have totally turned this team's season around. You have to be careful about too much stock into a relatively small sample size, but there is no denying that the Cowboys are peaking at the right time. Two of the team's three best offensive performances (in terms of points scored) have come in the last three games. Key has been the addition of WR Amari Cooper, who had 180 yds receiving last week. QB Dak Prescott has completed 70% of his passes during the win streak w/ no interceptions. 

It's a big break for Dallas getting the Saints outside of New Orleans. Yes, the Saints are unbeaten on the road, but the Cowboys are 4-1 SU at home, outscoring opponents by more than a TD per game. The Dallas defense has actually played well all season, giving up just 19.4 PPG. They'll obviously be tested severely by the Saints' offense here, but I think the 'Boys can limit them as the most pts they've allowed all season is 28. Just like the last couple weeks, I believe this is an overlay w/ New Orleans, who is due to play a close game. Expect a steady dose of Ezekiel Elliott from Dallas to control the clock. The Cowboys have not been a home dog of more than seven points since facing the Patriots in 2015. Meanwhile, New Orleans has actually not been favored on the road by more than a TD since 2013 (did not cover).  10* Dallas

8* Houston (8:20 ET): Back in Week 2, these teams met and the Titans won 20-17 in Nashville. But a lot has changed since then. Houston actually started 0-3, but is now 7-3 SU and leads the division. I've got them favored in all but one of their remaining games (Week 16 at Philadelphia), so there's a pretty clear path for them to win the AFC South. But the first order of business is exacting some revenge on Tennessee. The Texans actually outgained the Titans 437-238 in that first meeting, so a case could be made that they were the better team that day. The game was decided by a Ryan Succop 31-yard field goal w/ one minute remaining. I don't see the Texans' seven-game win streak getting snapped Monday night. Lay the short number. 

It was two weeks ago that the Titans treated me quite nicely. They upset the Patriots, 34-10 as 6.5-pt underdogs. But that was at home. It was also the third straight Titans game I'd cashed a winning ticket. I had them plus the points in a cover vs. the Chargers (over in London) and also the Over when they appeared on MNF vs. Dallas two weeks ago. They beat the Cowboys 28-14 and then came another upset (over the Patriots). But just as the team seemed to be hitting its stride under 1st year HC Mike Vrabel, they laid a complete egg last week in a 38-10 loss at Indianapolis. This offense hasn't been particularly effective this year (28th in scoring) and only averages 16.3 PPG on the road. For me, the status of QB Marcus Mariota (elbow) is largely irrelevant to this play. (Though it would be nice to go against Blaine Gabbert. 

Houston hasn't exactly beaten a "murderer's row" during this 7-game win streak of theirs and all but two wins have been by 7 pts or less. But I think this has the potential to be one of their bigger wins - in terms of margin of victory - all year. This Titans offense really shouldn't scare anyone (check numbers above), but especially a Texans defense which is giving up just 19.7 PPG at home and has a top 10 pass rush. While both of these defenses are top six in yards per game allowed, Houston has a huge edge offensively. I realize that the Titans beat the Texans w/o Mariota back in Week 2, but with or w/o him here, I can't see them pulling off what would be their first season sweep of the Texans in a decade. 8* Houston

10* NY Jets (1:00 ET): With the Patriots off both a loss (a bad one to the Titans) and a bye, the expection here will be for them to win in a blowout. The 3-7 Jets have little to play for, though they too are off their bye and a bad loss before it. Their offense is averaging less than 11 PPG during a four game losing streak. Before the bye, they were crushed 41-10 by a Bills team starting Matt Barkley at QB, as a 7-pt home favorite no less. Then again, the Patriots certainly didn't look the part of a 6.5-pt road favorite when they were soundly beaten by Tennessee, 34-10, two weeks ago. This line has all the makings of an overlay as New England has struggled away from home this year and this rivalry has a history of close games. Take the points. 

The past five meetings here at MetLife Stadium have all been decided by seven points or less w/ the Jets winning outright twice. Despite winning only two of the past 10 meetings overall, the Jets have managed to go 8-2 ATS, so the Patriots are consistently overvalued in this rivalry. New England is 0-5 ATS the L5 visits here and has certainly struggled on the road this year w/ bad losses to Jacksonville, Detroit and Tennessee. The only road win this year that came by more than seven points was against the hapless Bills and even that game saw the offense get held to just four field goals through three quarters. Down 18-6, Buffalo was driving late in the fourth quarter to make it a one-score game. But the Patriots got a fortunate pick-six from Derek Anderson to seal the game. 

The Titans provided a nice blueprint for how to beat New England. Clearly, it involves forcing Tom Brady out of the pocket and making him uncomfortable. This Jets defense should be able to do that, although it hasn't forced a single turnover the L4 weeks. The key will be whether or not the Jets can score enough points. It looks like Josh McCown may start at QB as rookie Sam Darnold is still hurt. I wouldn't mind the move anyway considering Darnold's stuggles so far. But what I most lean on is the fact that my power rankings have this spread at 7.5, making the Jets the biggest value bet on the board this season. 10* NY Jets

8* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): The Bucs' offense has managed to gain more than 1,000 yds the last two weeks, yet somehow managed to lose both games. That "somehow" can be directly traced to eight turnovers and a QB carousel that has reached almost preposterous proportions. For those keeping score at home, it will be Jameis Winston starting this week. Winston was suspended for the first four games this season and Ryan Fitzpatrick did pretty well in his place. Well, at least for two games. Then Fitzmagic ran out of tricks, which happened to be the first game Winston was eligible to return. Unfortunately, "Famous Jameis" was no better than a struggling Fitzpatrick so Dirk Koetter (a desperate HC, if there ever was one) went back to Fitzpatrick. That didn't last long as Fitzpatrick was bad last week and was removed for Winston, who ALMOST led a big comeback against the Giants.

As sad as this all sounds, I expect the Winston-led Bucs to play well this week. We know the offense can move the ball (and even sometimes score). Two weeks ago, TB had one of the more confounding box scores in recent memory as they outgained Washington 501-286, yet lost 16-3. (They were -4 in turnovers). Last week, they outgained the Giants 510-359, yet were again -4 in TO's and lost 38-35 (at one point, trailed by 17). But with Winston under center, the offense scored touchdowns on four consecutive drives. Winston completed 12 of 16 passes for 199 yards. He did throw one INT, but w/ 23 seconds remaining. Bottom line is that Winston is going to be the more consistent option for the Bucs QB, at least for the rest of 2018.

I think San Francisco, specifically QB Nick Mullens, is still getting too much residual credit for one performance against the terrible Raiders. The follow-up act wasn't very good as the Niners lost at home to the Giants, 27-23. Mullens wasn't nearly as good the second time around, throwing a couple of picks. Mullens is of course the third different starting QB for San Fran after both Garoppolo and Beatherd were lost to season-ending injuries. The Niners have yet to win a road game this year, largely due to giving up over 28 PPG. Two things really work in Tampa Bay's favor here. One is the game is at home where they're a more respectable 2-2 SU this year. Number two is while the Bucs have the most TO's in the league, San Fran has the fewest takeaways. 8* Tampa Bay

10* Kansas State (7:00 ET): I think it might shock a lot of people to find out that Kansas State has beaten Iowa State 10 straight times. However, during that win streak it's been the Cyclones covering the majority of the games. The team from Ames has covered each of the last four meetings, which have been decided by a total of 13 points. With the setup here being so contradictory to past history, I suspect the result will be too. The most likely result here is an Iowa State win, but failure to cover. Both of these teams are better suited when in the underdog role. For Iowa State, they are in an emotional letdown spot after losing at home to Texas last week. That defeat ended any hope of the Cyclones playing for a Big XII Championship. 

Even last season when Iowa State was overachieving to get to 8-5 SU, they lost in Manhattan, 20-19 as a 2-pt dog. Now, they did lose RB Montgomery to an injury and gave up the game-winning TD w/ no time remaining on the clock. Certainly, they'll be out for revenge, but it's tough to like this team as such an overwhelming favorite. They are just 1-2 ATS so far when laying points in Ames and that one cover was a bit of a lucky one as they got a garbage-time TD against Texas Tech. The 26-14 loss to Texas last Saturday night could certainly have put a "damper" on the Cyclones' collective spirits as I think playing for a Big XII Championship was far more important to this group than getting revenge against Kansas State. 

Another reason to like the points here is that the game figures to be so low-scoring. Just look at the O/U line. Both teams come in w/ top 25 defenses. Kansas State has been blown out three times this year, but only by top 15 teams (Miss St, WVU, Oklahoma). They are 5-0 ATS as a dog otherwise, including two outright wins, one of them coming last week against Texas Tech. The Wildcats have done a good job getting to the cusp of bowl eligibility and need a win here to get to the postseason. So they won't go down w/o a fight for HC Snyder. The last three games have seen this Wildcats' defense allow an average of just 12.3 PPG. Iowa State is only outscoring its opponents by 4.5 PPG this season. The dog should be the more motivated side and has history on its side, knowing that it has dominated this rivalry. 10* Kansas State 

10* Miami FL (3:30 ET): All signs point towards "the U" getting the job done here. Sure, they'd lost four in a row before last week's convincing 38-14 over Virginia Tech. And they were on a 5-game ATS losing streak as well. Opponent Pitt arrives in the Coral Gables finale riding a four-game (SU) win streak and has covered five in a row. But let's look at the situation as opposed to recent form. The situation will call for some major revenge to be exacted as the Canes, ranked #2 in the entire country at the time, were upended 24-14 LY at Heinz Field (at Pittsburgh), ending their own 10-game unbeaten run (it was their 1st loss of the season and the start of a three-game slide to end the year). Just like Pitt here, Miami knew it was already ACC Championship Game bound. They were also severely beat up and down multiple key offensive playmakers. Miami gets its revenge (and them some) Saturday afternoon at Hard Rock Stadium. 

So Pitt has the disadvantage of coming into this game knowing full well it has a huge date set w/ #2 (and unbeaten) Clemson (sound familiar?) next week in the ACC Championship Game. They clinched that spot by going on the road last Saturday and beating Wake Forest, 34-13 as 5.5-pt chalk. They were down at the half, 10-6, but outscored the Demon Deacons 28-3 after that w/ QB Kenny Pickett throwing three touchdowns and a career-best 316 yards. It was just the second road win of the year for the Panthers as this is still the only FBS team to lose to North Carolina this season. That loss seems like its "eons ago" as Pat Narduzzi's team has "circled the wagons" to win 5 of its last 6 games. 

Just to illustrate how no one saw Pitt coming; last week was just the second time they'd been favored since September. They're back to the more customary role of dog here, as they should be. Miami has been favored in every game this season, so they've been a disappointment. But it doesn't mean that the Hurricanes still aren't the better team here. I have them, not Pitt, ranked as the top team in the Coastal and the 2nd best team in the ACC overall. In fact, I don't have Pitt ranked in my top 40 teams in the country! After four straight tough losses, we finally saw what Miami was capable of last week in a 38-14 destruction of Va Tech, in Blacksburg no less. The defense shut the Hokies out completely in the 2nd half and QB Perry was responsible for 3 TDs. Remembering what Pitt did to them in 2017, Miami will be ready this year, particularly their defense which is giving up only 14.8 PPG at home. 10* Miami 

8* Tulsa (3:30 ET): This line absolutely reeks and it's almost as if the oddsmakers are begging you to lay the points w/ SMU. The Ponies were kind to us a few weeks ago when - as a two touchdown UNDERDOG - they beat Houston by 14 points. At the time, I noted in the analysis that this was a team on the rise and sure enough they followed that win up w/ a 62-point effort against hapless UConn. But things didn't go nearly as well when I packed them last week as they lost at home to Memphis, 28-18. That leaves SMU needing a win here against 2-win Tulsa to become bowl eligible. Laying a field goal or less sounds like an ideal situation, but this has all the makings of a trap game and I'm going to call for the Golden Hurricane to pull the upset! Take the points. 

Tulsa's only conference win came against UConn. It's also their only win against a FBS opponent all year. But it's not as if the Golden Hurricane haven't been competitive at times this year. They lost at Texas by only a touchdown. I've played them only once and it was an easy cover on a Friday night vs. USF, a game they led most of the way and probably should have won. Since losing that game, it's been a downhill slide, but believe it or not, Tulsa has actually been outscored by fewer points per game than SMU has this season. Last week against Navy, they had trouble stopping the triple option, but it's a very different type of offense that they'll be going up against this week. At home, Tulsa has been far more competitive this year, having both the edge in scoring and total yardage over the opposition.

I believe the Golden Hurricane will be able to run the ball effectively in this matchup. They already run for over 200 yards per game and as we saw last week, the SMU defense is very shaky against the run. They're giving up over 200 YPG on the ground, which is 102nd in the country. Tulsa's run defense is actually worse, but SMU doesn't like to run the ball that much, so that won't be that big of an issue Saturday afternoon. SMU's defense gives up 36.0 PPG for the year and 42.4 PPG on the road. The home team has won three straight in this conference rivalry and SMU has not covered either time it was a favorite this year. Look for Tulsa to treat this is as "their bowl game" and shock a lot of people. 8* Tulsa 

8* New Mexico (2:30 ET): Wyoming pulled off an improbable cover last Saturday, scoring three late touchdowns (all in the final 4:32) to win 35-27 as 2.5-point home favorites. As far as the betting window was concerned, the decisive TD came with 45 seconds left after an Air Forxe turnover. Full disclosure: I had Air Force. So there's obviously an emotional component to me wanting to fade Wyoming a second straight week. But there's also a lot of numbers-based logic as this is still a bad team, one that has problems scoring (19.7 PPG) and they are barely inside my top 100 teams in the country. I realize that they need this game to become bowl eligible, but so do the oddsmakers and as a result we have an inflated number. Take the points w/ New Mexico here.

The Lobos are only playing for pride in this final regular season game. Bob Davie's team comes into Saturday's last home game as losers of six in a row and at 4-7 SU overall. But if you recall, earlier this month, I cashed them plus the points here in Albuquerque against San Diego State. They actually led the Aztecs much of the way before wilting late in the fourth quarter. This is a much weaker foe that they're getting this week and there should be some level of motivation based on it being the final home game for the outgoing Senior Class. Over the L6 games, New Mexico has had to play the top four teams in the Mountain West - Utah State, Fresno State, San Diego State and last week, Boise State. So the losing skid doesn't really bother me. I still believe this line ought to be closer to a pick 'em. 

Wyoming was a much better team last year when they beat New Mexico 42-3. That game was also in Laramie and they had Josh Allen at QB. The last time they visited New Mexico, their defense allowed a school-record 568 yards rushing. This is a defense that still doesn't have suspended DT Youhanna Ghaifan and gave up 362 yards rushing to Air Force. The offense's inability to score will catch up with it here. The late flurry against Air Force is not indicative of Wyoming's season. They also lost their starting QB and RB to injury last week! The Cowboys' three-game win streak has come exclusively against teams w/ losing records and while New Mexico fits that same bill, they should be competitive in this spot and cover the spread in a low-scoring affair. 8* New Mexico

8* Cincinnati (3:30 ET): Each team here experienced a result last week that they're not very used to. For East Carolina, it was a win and a definitive one at that, 55-21 over sorry UConn (Pirates were -17.5). Consider ECU had been favored only one other time against a FBS foe this season and they didn't cover, beating Old Dominion by just two points. Cincinnati, meanwhile, is off a humbling setback at the hands of unbeaten UCF. Luke Fickell's Bearcats were in the wrong place at the wrong time Saturday night as ESPN College Gameday was in Orlando and it was a raucous atmosphere, leading to a 38-13 defeat. Still, it was just Cincy's second loss of the season and for East Carolina, last week was only their third win of the season. So that's the backdrop heading into this regular season finale.

East Carolina has nothing left to play for as bowl eligibilty is out the window. They did give the Seniors a nice win in the final home game, so I can just assume that this game will carry little priority for the Pirates, who have played better than the record shows, but that's of little consequence as they head to a third straight three-win season under HC Scottie Montgomery. The road has been unkind to the Pirates as they're 0-3 SU away from Greenville, averaging only 12.3 PPG. This looks like a total mismatch facing a Bearcats team that is 5-0 SU at home, winning by an average margin of 26 PPG. Cincy has a very good defense (they allow only 17.0 PPG) and I just don't see how East Carolina is going to score very much in this game.

Though they lost by 25 pts on the scoreboard, I thought Cincinnati played a lot better against UCF than the final score showed. Total yardage was relatively even and while one of the Bearcats two scores came from the defense, it was their own three turnovers that killed any chance of winning. While it might sound tough to recoup from a loss like that, playing for a 10-win season is certainly a big enough deal. The Bearcats also have some payback on the mind after they suffered a humiliating defeat LY in Greenville, 48-20 as three-point favorites. But that was when the Pirates had Gardner Minshew at QB and he's now plying his trade in greener pastures for Wazzu. Minshew threw for 444 yds in LY's meeting, at the time a career-high for him. He's not around anymore to save ECU. 8* Cincinnati

10* Iowa (12:00 ET): The Scott Frost era obviously got off to a dubious beginning w/ the first ever 0-6 start in Lincoln. Tip your cap for the way Frost has been able to right the Nebraska ship over the last month w/ the Cornhuskers winning four of their last five games, the only loss coming at Ohio State. They are also now on a seven-game ATS win streak. Truthfully, things were never as bad as they looked w/ four of the team's seven losses this year coming by five points or less. Next year, Nebraska will be able to make waves in the Big 10 West. But it's still 2018 and my power rankings aren't quite that impressed with this Cornhuskers team. Meanwhile, they (meaning power rankings) love Iowa, who also happens to be far better than its record shows. I have zero hesitation about laying the points Friday afternoon in Iowa City in what is my favorite spot of the year!

Outside the top 6-7 teams in the country, it's a real "crapshoot" ranking who the best teams are in College Football this year. I think there are a number of 4-loss teams deserving of being called one of the top 15 in the country and I happen to count Iowa among them. Three of the Hawkeyes' four losses have been in one-score games, the exception being a Sat night home game vs. Wisconsin where they actually led going into the 4th quarter and gave up a "meaningless" TD in the final 30 seconds to lose by 11. Last weekend, the Hawkeyes snapped a three-game losing streak in resounding fashion by handing Illinois its worst defeat in program history, 63-0. That was on the road, mind you. 

While Iowa was busy winning 63-0, Nebraska squeaked out a very ugly 9-6 win over Michigan State. All three field goals came in the 4th quarter on drives that never exceeded 36 yards or seven plays. Thus, it's pretty difficult to imagine this Cornhuskers' offense doing much of anything against an even stingier Iowa defense. (More on that in a second). 

This game is in Iowa City and the home folk should be fired up. The Hawkeyes have beaten the Cornhuskers three straight years, the last two wins both coming by double digits. Nebraska has not won a road game all season, going 0-4 and allowing 41.7 PPG. While Iowa has somehow lost twice this year in Kinnick Stadium, they're giving up an average of just 11.0 points in six games here. Take away that late Wisconsin TD and no visitor has scored more than 21 pts here with five being held to 14 points or less. An impressive win here could land the Hawkeyes in a more marquee bowl game next month. As a favorite this year, Iowa is 7-1 SU and ATS. Plus they have covered six of the last eight times they've been a 3.5 to 10 pt favorite. To me, Iowa is definitely the best team in the Big 10 West this year. 10* Iowa

8* Atlanta (8:20 ET): Playing against the Saints can be hazardous to one's health these days and I found that out the hard way on Sunday as I made the big-time mistake of taking the Eagles. New Orleans beat the Super Bowl Champs 48-7 (game did stay Under!) as seven-point favorites to improve to 9-1 SU/8-2 ATS on the season. They've covered eight in a row, a streak that probably has them on top of everyone's power rankings (I know they're #1 in mine). But as great as the Saints are, this is a pretty insane number for them to be laying against the division rival Falcons. Obviously an adjustment had to be made by the oddsmakers after last week's result, but I don't think for a second that Atlanta is six points worse than Philly. In fact, they're a better team at the stage of the game. 

I can say the Falcons are better than the Eagles, but the reality is both teams are 4-6 SU. That said, the Falcons are better and have the benefit of already playing the Saints earlier in the year. Now they lost, 43-37, but were actually 1.5-pt favorites in that game and it went to overtime. Atlanta even had the lead late before Drew Brees tied the game up w/ a 7-yd TD run w/ just over a minute to go in regulation, capping an 81-yard drive. That was in Week 3 and the Saints haven't lost or failed to cover a game since. But I don't think the Falcons should be considered a full touchdown worse now than they were in September. Sure, they've lost six games, but four of those were by six points or fewer. 

Sunday's 22-19 home loss to Dallas was pretty brutal for the Falcons as they now probably have to win out to have any shot at making the playoffs. I certainly don't think the team is just going to roll over and quit, not after coming back from a 19-9 deficit to tie the game against the Cowboys and not against their biggest division rival in a national TV game. Losing each of the last two weeks (as favorites) has definitely inflated this number along w/ the Saints winning ways. But this Falcons team is rarely an underdog (happened only twice this season) and they've never been getting more than 3.5 pts against any other opponent. There have been only four times in the Matt Ryan era (2008-) where they've been a double digit dog and they've covered every time. 8* Atlanta 

10* Washington (4:30 ET): In the span of roughly one hour last Sunday, the entire landscape of the NFC East changed. The Redskins, who came into the day w/ a 6-3 SU record and in first place, lost starting QB Alex Smith for the rest of the season due to a gruesome leg injury. That's not all they lost on Sunday though as they also dropped a game to the Houston Texans, 23-21 at home. While that was taking place, the Cowboys came from behind to beat the Falcons (in Atlanta), 22-19, for a second straight HUGE road win (won at Philly the week prior). Now the perception is that the division is Dallas' to lose and because of the Smith injury, they're big favorites on Thanksgiving Day. I think this line is a classic overreaction to an injury and will grab the points w/ Washington. 

My own power rankings indicate this should be about a 4-point spread. I don't think that going from Smith to Colt McCoy at QB should move the line much, if at all, and certainly not by more than a field goal. I thought McCoy came in and played well against the Texans, considering the circumstances. TE Jordan Reed became a bigger part of the passing game w/ McCoy under center. McCoy entered when Washington was down 10 and engineered two scoring drives to get his team the lead for a brief time. You also have to remember that Washington has a pretty good defense, one that allows just 19.8 PPG. The only teams to score more than 23 pts against the Redskins this year are the Saints & Falcons.

Dallas lost the first meeting w/ Washington, 20-17, thanks to the usual Jason Garrett ineptitude and a missed FG on the final play. I am very interested to see how the Cowboys perform here on the heels of two big upset wins on the road. They've failed to cover each of the last three times they've been favored, losing two of the games outright. This will be the most points they've been asked to lay in any game so far this season and it comes against a division rival that's already beaten them once before. The Cowboys offense is only averaging 20.3 PPG, so in what should be a low-scoring division game, taking the points sure seems like the way to go. The Redskins are a money-making 6-1 ATS as underdogs already this season. 10* Washington

10* Air Force (3:30 ET): The Flyboys fell victim to one of the worst beats of the year Saturday in Laramie. Since I was on them, allow me to recount the tale of woe. Up 27-14 on Wyoming (w/ just under five minutes remaining), the Falcons were getting 2.5 and managed to blow the cover. They allowed three touchdowns to a Wyoming offense that had lost BOTH its starting QB and RB early in the game. The final score (27 yard run) came with less than a minute to go in a situation where a simple tackle would have ended the game (and there should have been holding called on Wyoming anyway). That loss cost the AFA any shot of being bowl eligible, putting them in a pretty tough spot Thanksgiving afternoon. But fortunately for them, the opponent is in just as bad a situation, if not worse.

Colorado State almost pulled off what would have been a shocking upset of #23 Utah State Saturday night. At home, they came from behind and scored what appeared to be the game-winning TD w/ no time left on a 34-yard throw from QB Collin Hill to WR Preston Williams. Unfortuantely, upon further review, the touchdown was negated when it was ruled Williams had stepped out of bounds before catching the ball. For the Rams, playing their final home game, a win would have been the highlight of a lost season. Instead, it just became their fourth straight loss and eighth defeat of this season. This was a team I played against multiple times early in the year as I felt this would be a down year in Ft. Collins. Now I'll look to conclude by fading them in the final regular season game. 

To me, this spread needs to be closer to three touchdowns rather than two. Air Force has won the L2 battles for the Ram-Falcon Trophy, including a 45-28 upset (as 10-pt dogs) in Ft. Collins LY. As you can tell from the spread, Colo State is a significantly weaker team in 2018. While the Rams did outgain Utah State LW, 506-310, that was at home. On the road, CSU has been a disaster, giving up 45.6 PPG and I'm just going to assume their defense will want no part of the AFA rushing attack in a meaningless game. Air Force has run for over 800 yds in the L2 games and is +14.2 PPG in Colorado Springs this year. While bowl eligibility is off the table, at least they can send the Seniors out w/ a win in the final home game. 10* Air Force

8* Ball State (7:00 ET): Miami, Ohio has done a nice job working its way not only to the cusp of bowl eligibility, but also into the race for the MAC East. When the RedHawks were 3-6 SU, their postseason hopes looked bleak. But a couple of upsets later, they're now in the discussion for the MAC Championship Game. Granted, it's unlikely they can get to Detroit (would require not only a win Tuesday, but a Buffalo loss to Bowling Green on Friday). But the RedHawks certainly have "everything to play for" this week, namely bowl eligibility. They're at home facing a bad Ball State team, but I think this number is inflated. Take the points. 

Ball State pulled an upset of its own last Wednesday, theirs coming over Western Michigan on Senior Night, an emotional game in Muncie that went to overtime. The final score was 42-41 and the Cardinals were a 9.5-point underdog. They won by stopping what would have been a game-winning 2-pt conversion. In addition to it being Senior Night, the Cardinals were also off a bye last week, so the situation was definitely favorable. It's obviously less so here, but I was very impressed w/ the job done by QB Drew Plitt against Western Michigan as he threw three touchdowns and only five incompletions in just his second career start (but sixth appearance this year).

Miami might have everything to play for here, but let's see how they perform as a favorite and a large one at that. The RedHawks are 7-1 ATS the L8 games, the lone non-cover coming by a single point against Buffalo. But they've been a favorite only twice during that stretch and never by anywhere close to this many points. Then you have the fact they were a bit of a lucky winner last week, pulling the 13-7 upset at Northern Illinois despite just 201 total yds of offense. The winning score was a pick-six. The RedHawks averaged just 2.3 yards per carry on offense while NIU averaged 5.7. It was a game Miami should feel lucky to have won. In yet another game where points should be at a premium, backing the big underdog seems logical. 8* Ball State 

10* LA Rams (8:20 ET): I have to say that I'm kind of shocked to see how "trendy" an underdog Kansas City is in this spot. I understand that the Chiefs are one of the league's top teams and they are a perfect 3-0 ATS as underdogs this year. Overall, they've covered 8 of 10 games this season, giving them the best ATS record in the league. But have we forgotten how good the Rams are? The Rams have been favored in every game this season and while they've shown some "cracks" defensively in recent weeks, that's nothing compared to the issues on that side of the ball for Kansas City. The Chiefs rank 30th in the league in yards per game and eventually that's going to catch up with them. Facing a top three scoring offense seems like a likely place. Lay the points. 

The Rams also get a break here in that this game was originally set to take place in Mexico City, but had to be moved to LA due to poor field conditions. So the Rams now get an added game at home where they are already 5-0 and outscoring opponents by 12 PPG. Unlike most Chiefs' opponents, the Rams have an offense that can trade points here. The respective scoring averages from the two offenses here are very similar. Remember that the only team to beat the Rams was insanely hot New Orleans and that was a 45-35 game in the Superdome. The Rams have played a much tougher slate of games than the Chiefs recently and the one loss, coupled with some close calls, have contributed to the public perception that they're not as "hot" right now. While they're 1-5 ATS the L6 games, I think that's nonsense. 

Since losing to the Patriots, Kansas City has played: Cincinnati, Denver, Cleveland and Arizona - all teams w/ losing records and only the Cleveland game was on the road. The Chiefs' offense was surprisingly held to a season-low 26 points last week, by the Cardinals of all teams. While Kansas City has been pretty lethal as an underdog (8-2 ATS w/ seven outright wins L10 times), this is their toughest game of the season. The Rams played theirs two weeks ago and while they came up short, I still have them rated as the better team here. Thus, now at home, I'll gladly lay a short number. Kansas City's defensive issues will catch up with them here. 10* LA Rams

8* Chicago (8:20 ET): I think it would be fair to say that there's a sense a skepticism concerning the pro football team from the Windy City. The Bears are 6-3 SU and lead the NFC North, but they've gotten to three games above .500 by beating the Jets, Bills and Lions. Still, all three wins did come in pretty convincing fashion (all by 12 or more pts) and the Bears now own a point differential (+94) that's better than all but three other teams in the league (Chiefs, Rams and Saints). Sunday night will most certainly be labeled as a "prove it" game to the national audience and I think they pass the test at home. They've got revenge for a pair of losses to the Vikings last season and have generally been just the better team here in 2018. I'm going to lay the short number. 

Minnesota also has a top five defense and beat Detroit in their last game. Their win over the Lions, 24-9, came two weeks ago as they're coming off a bye here. So a lot of people are going to love the situation from their perspective. But under Mike Zimmer, the team is just 1-3 ATS off a bye, including playoffs. The Vikings would be ahead of the Bears in the division if not for that embarrassing loss to Buffalo (at home) back in Week 3. Their only other two defeats came against the Rams and Saints. The only reason that people might seem "down" on this team is because they went 13-3 SU a year ago and added Kirk Cousins. They're a good team, but when it comes to the division, I just think this is going to be the Bears' year.

Remember that early in the season, I called for Chicago to be a sleeper playoff team. The key was finally firing John Fox and replacing him w/ an offensive mind like Matt Nagy. A relatively soft schedule has helped. But since Week 4, this Bears offense has led the league in points per game at 34.3. QB Mitchell Trubisky has 19 TD passes during that time and is coming off a career-best performance LW vs. the Lions. While both defenses here are top five in yards allowed, the Bears are allowing fewer points per game and overall have been the better unit. This is the biggest game for the Bears in years and its at home on a Sunday night. Doubted on a national level, they'll show up and deliver. 8* Chicago 

10* Philadelphia (4:25 ET): Needless to say, less than one year removed from winning the Super Bowl, the Eagles did not bank on being in this position. That position being more than a touchdown underdog to an opponent. Now this is opponent is New Orleans, who is at home and historically lethal in the Mercedes Benz Superdome. The Saints also come into this one on an eight-game SU and ATS win streak. Since losing Week 1 (here at home) to Tampa Bay, they've outscored opponents by almost two touchdowns per game. Most, including myself, have them as the top team in the league right now. In their last home game, Drew Brees and company beat the Rams (pretty handily) to take over that honor. Last week, they obliterated Cincinnati on the road, 51-14. 

So the Eagles, only 4-5 SU and off a primetime loss to Dallas, definitely are "up against it" a bit here. Even though the NFC East is weak overall, with Washington currently 6-3, Philly's season is very much hanging in the balance here (although they still play the Redskins twice). I do have to say that this spread did require a bit of a double take. And in handicapping the matchup, I uncovered a key trend that only confirmed my belief that the road dog is the correct play here. The last five times the previous year's Super Bowl winner was a dog of seven or more in a game (and this is obviously a rare spot), that team has covered the spread four times. I think the Eagles are being undervalued here.

You have to remember that on their run to the SB last season, they were an underdog in every playoff game. Last week's outright loss to Dallas dropped the Eagles to 2-8 ATS the L10 times they have been favored (w/ 5 outright losses). But as an underdog, they have covered six straight times (this excludes Wk 17 LY when they rested starters). They've been favored in every game this year with one exception, Week 1 vs. Atlanta (a game they won 18-12). This team still has Carson Wentz at QB, a relatively strong defense (20.3 PPG allowed) and all five losses have been by seven points or less. Another good trend here is that teams off a SU loss by 14+ pts on Sunday or Monday Night Football this year have gone 8-2 ATS the following week. Yes, I'll jump in front of the New Orleans' train. Take the points. 10* Philadelphia 

10* Detroit (1:00 ET): Both of these teams would just as soon burn the Week 10 film as Carolina got hammered 52-21 in Pittsburgh Thursday night while the Lions lost in Chicago, 34-22. For the Lions that final score was actually a bit misleading considering they were down 26-0 midway through the second quarter. Either way, it was still a third straight double digit loss for Matt Patricia's team, whose season is basically on the brink this week as the team is 3-6 SU overall. Even after losing by 31, the Panthers are still in okay shape at 6-3 SU, but I've had my doubts about just how good this team is. On the road, they're now just 1-3 SU/ATS and averaging 20.7 PPG. That one win was a come from behind effort in Philadelphia, a game where they trailed 17-0 in the 4Q.

It wasn't the Carolina offense that had the problem in Pittsburgh, though their 21 pts scored were the lowest in a game since the last time they played on the road. In fact, they haven't scored more than 24 all season on the road. Rather, it was the defense getting torched for 52 points and 457 total yards. Excluding the Steelers running out the clock to end the 1st half, they scored on each of their first seven drives. Now, whether or not the Detroit offense can have a big day remains to be seen. But one thing that would certainly help the Lions here is protecting the football. Twice in the last three weeks, they've finished w/ a -3 TO ratio.

Keep in mind that the Lions have been a home dog to only one other team all season. That would be New England back in Week 3, a Sunday night game where they pulled a massive 26-10 upset as seven-point chalk. Few saw that one coming. The Lions' last two road games have been on the road. The last time they were at home, I actually played against them and they lost 28-14 to Seattle. But that game saw them turn the ball over TWICE in the end zone. Again, protecting the football is paramount here (as it is for any NFL game). Carolina has won a lot of close games the L2 seasons and has only outscored their opponents by seven points for the year. Take the points. 10* Detroit.

8* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): What is heaven's name has gone wrong with the Jaguars? After Week 2, this team was perceived as a legit threat to win the AFC as they'd just avenged LY's Championship Game loss to New England, beating the Patriots pretty handily, 31-20. But as you know, Week 2 was a LONG time ago. Since then, the Jags have lost six of seven, including five straight. Their only win during that time was against the lowly Jets. Last week saw them get knocked off by the division rival Colts, 29-26, a game where the once-proud defense was torched for all 29 pts in the first half. The task gets no tougher this week as the Jags play Pittsburgh. But the game is at home and the number is inflated. I'm going to take a "flier" on the dog here as they look to salvage their season.

Salvaging the season is still a possibility for Jacksonville, mind you. Their next two games are: at Buffalo and a rematch w/ Indy at home. So if they were to win here, they could easily be back at .500 after 12 games. I have no idea what went wrong w/ the defense in the 1H last week, though it isn't exactly refreshing to hear the personnel refer to the mistakes as "brain farts". What I do know is they shut the Colts out in the 2H. Maybe this defense isn't what it was a year ago, but it's a prideful bunch and I think they'll bounce back. Of course, we also need the offense to get back on track as well with QB Blake Bortles being the biggest offender. The good news is RB Leonard Fournette is back in the lineup and prior to last week's loss, the team was 2-0 SU w/ him on the field and 1-5 SU without.

For Pittsburgh, this is obviously a double revenge game. They lost twice to the Jaguars last year, including at home in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. If you recall, I had a sizable play on Jacksonville in that playoff meeting. Pittsburgh is definitely hot right now and with the double revenge angle, figures to be a popular side this week. They've won and covered five straight games following a 1-2-1 SU start. But, as noted earlier, this line is inflated. The Steelers have not won a road game this year by more than seven points and under HC Tomlin they are just 7-18 ATS all-time as a road favorite of six or more points. Take the points here with a desperate dog. 8* Jacksonville

8* Oregon (10:30 ET): The Ducks are off a bad loss last week as they lost to Utah. It's not like a seven-point loss in Salt Lake City is bad on face value. But when you consider the Utes were w/o their starting QB AND RB, then it's pretty shocking Oregon came up short. It was the third loss in four games for UO, although all three losses took place away from Eugene. This is the final game of the year at Autzen and the home team should be highly motivated. Last year, their 10-game win streak over Arizona State got snapped when the Sun Devils kicked a last second field goal. So that's even more motivation. The Ducks are 11-2 SU at home the L2 years, have a NFL QB and this is a really good price on them. Lay the short number. 

No one is laughing at the Herm Edwards hire anymore. He has Arizona State in position to win the Pac 12 South! If the Sun Devils win out, which would require victories here and in the Territorial Cup (at Arizona), they are going to Los Angeles. All four losses this year have come by exactly a touchdown. But three of six wins have also come by a field goal. So that's a lot of close games. Last week, they outlasted UCLA 31-28 as 12.5-pt chalk. It was only the second Pac 12 game where ASU was favored, so clearly they've beaten expectations. But the road has been a bit of a challenge for them. They're 1-3 SU away from Tempe w/ the only win coming by a field goal over USC. They've lost at San Diego State, Washington and Colorado. This may be the toughest trip of the season.

Making this game even more difficult than it needed to be for Arizona State is the fact that Merlin Robertson will miss the 1st half due to an ejection for targeting last week. That makes stopping Justin Herbert and the rest of the Oregon offense even more daunting. I'd also worry about this Sun Devils offense being able to keep pace. Sure, they average 29.9 PPG for the year. But that number comes slightly down on the road and Oregon also averages 43.0 PPG at home. The ASU defense has allowed a 70% completion percentage to four of their last five opponents. Herbert has thrown only one interception his L6 games. One final key trend worth mentioning is that Arizona State is 1-6 ATS when off B2B wins the L3 seasons. They've overachieved already this season, but won't here. 8* Oregon 

10* Air Force (4:00 ET): I think there are a lot of people (myself included) that think proud Wyoming alum Josh Allen is going to be a bust in the NFL (he was a 1st rd draft choice of the Bills). But don't tell that to the alma mater, who misses its old QB dearly. Coming into the season, I thought Wyoming was as likely to regress (in terms of record) as any team in the entire country. They only went 8-5 SU w/ Allen at the helm last year and that came w/ a +24 turnover margin (easily tops in the country). Points off turnovers accounted for roughly 40% of all Cowboys' scoring last year. The team was actually outgained by 52 YPG in MWC play. So what I'm saying is that it was a minor miracle that team won eight games even w/ Allen. Without him, they have indeed nosedived down to 4-6 SU. I don't think they should be favored here and will fade them instead. 

When Wyoming's schedule came out, it was known that five opponents would be looking for revenge against them. They've played three of the five so far and only Colorado State (who has fallen even harder that the Cowboys have) failed to exact that revenge. Both Hawaii and Utah State did and now it's Air Force's turn. The Flyboys lost to the Pokes last year in Colorado Springs, 28-14. despite being three-point home favorites and having a +149 edge in total yards. Now its time for payback. Both of these teams need to win out in order to become bowl eligible, but obviously only one can. I'll side w/ the 4-6 SU team that has both outscored and outgained opponents this season as opposed to the one that's done neither. 

Wyoming has won B2B weeks, but those wins were against two of the MWC's weaker teams: Colorado State and San Jose State. The offense in Laramie is downright putrid as it averages only 18.2 PPG. The defense is still missing standout Youhanna Ghaifan, a key cog in the defensive line. His absence is especially problematic when facing an AFA offense that goes for 265 yards rushing per game and just went for a season-high 478 in a 42-24 win over New Mexico last week. The Pokes do have the benefit of being off a bye, but I just don't see their offense being able to score enough to get the job done. Air Force is better than its record as four of its six losses have been by six points or less. I expect them to win a relatively close game Saturday afternoon, but take the points anyway. 10* Air Force

10* Akron (3:30 ET): On their way to an eventual MAC Title Game appearance, the Zips ended an eight-game SU/ATS losing streak to Bowling Green last season. They beat them 34-23 as 2-pt road chalk, which was also their 1st win @ BG since '05. Given the current state of the Bowling Green program, you would think that Akron is perhaps about to start their own win streak in this MAC East rivalry. BG is just dreadful, having already fired HC Mike Jinks midseason. They've got zero to play for moving forward as their record is 2-8 SU. I do think it helps Akron that BG won last week (24-13 @ Centgral Michigan), meaning the Falcons now won't go winless in conference play. Avoiding that distinction was the only real thing they had left to play for. I believe this spread should be closer to two touchdowns. Lay the points. 

Akron wasn't the best team in the MAC East last year, but won the division anyway thanks to pulling a couple upsets. Neither the MAC Championship nor the Boca Raton Bowl went well for them, but right now the Zips are looking at a situation where they need to win two of their final three games to get back to the postseason. Winning this game is a must as the two final regular season games are at Ohio and South Carolina and they'll be a big dog in each. Last week's game @ Eastern Michigan could not possibly have gone worse as QB Kato Nelson was out w/ an ankle injury. They turned it over four times, including three straight possessions w/ an INT, and gained less than 100 total yds. They should be eager to atone for that performance in this final home game. 

Thankfully, BG should more than oblige to Akron's need for victory. The Falcons remain a bottom 10 team in the country as they've been outscored by more than 17 PPG over the course of the season. I was truly shocked to see them win last week as 7.5-pt road dogs as they were down 13-0 at the half to Central Michigan (who ended up gaining only 166 yds for the game). How shocking was that defensive performance by BG? Consider that they still allow 469.2 YPG. Prior to last week, they had not beaten a single FBS team all season w/ the lone win coming at home over Eastern Kentucky where they had to rally late. Remember that this Akron team holds a win over Northwestern, who will be playing in the Big 10 Championship Game! This is - on paper - the Zips' easiest FBS game of the season. I'll keep my fingers crossed that QB Nelson returns, but even if he doesn't, this is still a play w/ the backup Ramart under center. 10* Akron

8* Wake Forest (12:00 ET): The Demon Deacons treated me nicely last week as they rallied back from a 13-3 halftime deficit and beat #14 NC State 27-23 as 17.5-pt road dogs. Perhaps you may recall my analysis for that Thursday night matchup. A lot of it was based on the notion that NC State being called the 14th best team in the country was utter nonsense. But I've always been impressed w/ how Wake "shows up" for HC Dave Clawson. While the Demon Deacons are a little bit "down" this year, bowl eligibility is still on the table for a team that's 5-5 SU overall. This is also the final home game in Winston-Salem and it comes w/ two extra days to prepare. With the regular season finale being at Duke, I think a motivated Demon Deacons squad comes up big here. Take the points. 

Pitt also has something to play for, that being the ACC Coastal, a race for which they are in the driver's seat. A win here would send them to Charlotte to face Clemson for the Conference Championship. So the Panthers shouldn't be lacking for motivation themselves. But they are road favorites for just the second time all year. The first time, I played against them and they lost outright to a North Carolina team that hasn't beaten anybody else all season. Overall, the Panthers are just 1-3 SU on the road this season. After a 1-3 overall start to the season, they've kind of come from nowhere to win four of their last five, the only loss coming at Notre Dame. But of note is the fact they've been favored only once in those L5 games, that coming in LW's 52-22 demolition of Va Tech. 

Believe it or not, despite being in the same conference, these teams have NEVER met. So Winston-Salem is foreign territory for the favorites. I think the sense of urgency is far greater for the home dog, which is seeking to go bowling for a third straight year, something that has only happened ONE time in the history of the program! Pitt doesn't even need a win here to clinch the division; they can have Virginia lose at Ga Tech as well. Or just beat struggling Miami next week. The big question here surrounds Wake Forest's ability to stop a Pitt run game that has gone for 484+ yds twice in the last three weeks. I think they can as this Demon Deacons' stop unit has improved ever since a midseason change at defensive coordinator. Last week, they allowed only 47 yds rushing to NC State. To me, the biggest mismatch in this game is Wake Forest's receivers going against a Pitt pass defense that is shaky at best. The Panthers' dream of being the 6th difference school to represent the ACC Coastal in the Conf Champ Game may have to be put on hold for another week. 8* Wake Forest

8* SMU (9:00 ET) - SMU was a tremendous winner for me two weeks ago. As 14-point underdogs, they WON by two touchdowns, beating a red-hot Houston team 45-31. At the time, the Mustangs were just 3-5 SU overall, but I wrote that they were improving and am not about to back off that assessment. Last Saturday's win wasn't nearly as impressive as they failed to cover against UConn despite scoring 62 points. But then again, it was the 1st time all year that the Ponies were favored to beat a FBS opponent. This week, they're back in their more customary role of underdog and looking to gain a "leg up" in what is currently a three-way tie atop the West Division of the American Conference. I like them plus the points and also give them an excellent shot at pulling another outright upset. 

Memphis is 3-3 SU in conference play and thus NOT one of the three teams atop the division (Tulane and Houston are). The Tigers still have a chance to win the West, but a ton of things would have to go their way. Many consider them to be the best team in the division, though I would still give a slight nod to Houston (who Memphis hosts next Friday). The Tigers should have probably beaten undefeated UCF earlier in the year, but instead ended up blowing a double-digit lead in the Liberty Bowl. It's one of two 1-pt losses they've taken this year. Memphis did win the division LY (lost to UCF in 2 OT's in the Conf Champ Game) and comes into this week having scored 100 pts the L2 wks. But SMU has done the same, making this too many points to lay for the Tigers.

I think homefield matters a lot here. Memphis is just 1-3 SU on the road w/ the lone victory coming two weeks ago against East Carolina (who has zero conference wins), but that was a close game until the very end. Earlier in the year, the Tigers dropped a game (as two-touchdown chalk) at Tulane. I think the biggest reason for this large spread is that Memphis has beaten SMU four straight times, by an average of 41 PPG! But this SMU team is a lot better than years' past. Not only are they playing for a division crown here, but they still need one more win for bowl eligibility. Their offense is averaging 38.5 PPG since junior QB Ben Hicks became the permanent starter. That makes this number extremely attractive at home. 8* SMU

10* North Texas (9:30 ET): Last year, these two teams played in the C-USA Title Game w/ a red-hot FAU prevailing at home 41-17 as 11-pt chalk. Getting the Title Game at home, the Owls jumped out to a 34-0 lead after 33 minutes and cruised from there. It was actually their second victory of the year over the Mean Green as they'd won 69-31 in the regular season, also in Boca Raton. This year, North Texas gets the game in Denton w/ some good old fashioned double revenge on its mind. Neither team will be making it to this year's C-USA Title Game, so the double revenge angle is pretty key in handicapping this matchup. So too is the homefield advantage as UNT is 4-1 SU in Apogee Stadium, outscoring teams by 22 PPG. I'm laying the short number here. 

Florida Atlantic was one of the darlings of College Football last season as Lane Kiffin came in and let a tremendous turnaround. His predecessor (Charlie Partridge) had delivered three seasons of just three wins each, but left Kiffin w/ the most experienced team in the country. Kiffin took full advantage, leading the Owls to an 11-win season, including a 50-3 rout of Akron in the Boca Raton Bowl. The Owls swept the C-USA schedule, winning all nine games by a total of 201 points. Still, there were obvious signs that this season would not go as well and those were confirmed early on as FAU lost its first game 63-14 to Oklahoma. After going 10-3-1 ATS last season, the Owls are just 3-7 at the betting window so far this season. Some of the regression boils down to being a less experienced team (not having QB Jason Driskell hurt), the rest was probably just inevitable.

The Owls are just 3-3 in C-USA this year and playing on the road has been a major problem for them both in and out of league play. They are 1-4 SU/ATS outside of Boca Raton w/ three of those losses coming by at least 20 points. The defense is allowing 37.8 PPG on the road and the number would look even worse were it not for winning the "Shula Bowl" against rival FIU two weeks ago, 49-14. Perhaps North Texas got caught looking ahead to this game as they were upset Saturday by Old Dominion, blowing a 28-point lead (were favored by 15.5). The Mean Green were looking quite good this year before losing two of the last three games. Their three losses have been by a total of 13 points. All 10 UNT games have stayed Under this year, thanks to a defense that allows only 20.3 PPG (18.4 at home). Superior defense, homefield advantage and a case of double revenge have me on the home fave here. 10* North Texas

8* Seattle (8:20 ET): This could prove to be an incredibly important game for two teams on the fringes of playoff contention. Seattle has played better than its 4-5 SU record indicates. They've actually outscored teams by 27 points. The issue is they've gone only 1-4 SU in games decided by seven points or less. The other loss was by eight to a very talented Chargers team, here in the last home game. Last week, for a second time this year, they lost to the mighty Rams in a close affair despite putting up 31 points. While I feel the Seahawks may very well be "underrated," I'm not so sure I can say the same for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. In fact, I think quite the opposite. Their four wins feature two miracle come from behind efforts (against Chicago & San Fran), both at home. Their other two wins are against Buffalo & Miami, two terrible teams. I think you can tell which way I'm leaning here. Seattle is deserving of far more respect here at home, especially considering Green Bay's 0-4 SU road record. Lay the short number. 

With five home games left, Seattle is definitely still capable of making some noise. They're only 1-2 SU at home so far, but the two losses were to the Rams & Chargers, two of the league's best. It seems like eons ago, but their only home win this year came in Week 3 against Dallas. Despite this, the Seahawks remain a team to be feared at Century Link Field where they've won 27 of their last 37 games, particularly in primetime. Another reason to like them is they simply do not lose three games in a row very often. The last time it happened was 2011, the year before Russell Wilson arrived. Since then, they've gone 6-0 SU/ATS when off B2B losses, including that home win over Dallas back in Wk 3. 

Seattle has the league's top ranked rushing attack at 152.2 YPG. Expect them to exploit a Packers' run defense that ranks in the bottom third of the league, giving up 4.5 yards per carry. That YPC average is what's huge because no team runs the ball more than Seattle. Last week against Miami, even though they won 31-12, Green Bay surrendered 131 yds on just 23 carries (Dolphins had to abandon the run when they fell behind). Over the last four weeks, they've given up 141.5 yards per game on the ground. Again, the Pack have not won a road game this year. They've allowed 30.5 PPG in the four losses. West Coast teams usually have an edge facing non-West Coast teams in primetime games (look up Circadian Advantage).  8* Seattle