10* Ohio (7:00 ET):  This is a big revenge game for Ohio, who lost last year in Buffalo as six-point favorites, 31-24. It was an absolutely horrendous spot for Frank Solich's Bobcats as they'd just been upset the week prior, at Akron, basically costing them a shot at the MAC Title Game. The situation is alarmingly similar Wednesday w/ Ohio having been upset by rival Miami last week, a result that severely hurt their chances of getting to this year's MAC Title Game. Had they won in Oxford, then this game basically would have been a de facto MAC East Championship. As it stands now, Ohio is now two games back in the division and would need to win out plus have Buffalo lose next week at Bowling Green (which is highly unlikely to happen). 

Still, there are some notable differences between this matchup and the one that took place last year. For starters, the game will be played in Athens where OU is 4-0 SU and averaging a whopping 49.2 points per game. Their average margin of victory in those four contests is 23.7 points. The home team has won eight straight times in this MAC East rivalry. The Bobcats are probably better than their overall record as three of their four losses this year have been by 4 points or less (9 pts total). While I would have loved to get them as a dog here, the bottom line is that this team is 47-13 SU its L60 home games and laying the shortest of numbers.

With the division now all but wrapped up, I believe that it's UB that's more likely to overlook this week's matchup. When these teams met last year, Ohio was in the dumps and Buffalo was looking to become bowl eligible (it was the regular season finale). The two teams came out and played like you'd think, based on the respective emotions, with the Bulls taking an early 24-7 lead before holding on for the seven-point victory. The job that Lance Leipold has done here at UB is quite remarkable and I give his Bulls an excellent shot at beating Northern Illinois next month in Detroit (MAC Champ Game). But Wednesday should belong to a revenge-minded Ohio team fighting to keep its own dreams alive. Remember, I played AGAINST Ohio last week in Miami, another game where they fell into a huge early hole (down 28-7) before fighting back and ultimately coming up short. Ohio is still the (slightly) better team here though and at home. 10* Ohio

10* NY Giants (8:15 ET): For a second straight week, the 49ers find themselves involved in a less than stellar primetime matchup. Only this time QB Nick Mullens is more of a "selling point." Making his 1st career start last Thursday vs. Oakland, Mullens stunned just about everyone by throwing for 262 yards and three touchdowns in 34-3 win, just the Niners' second victory of the year. Statistically speaking, it was considered the finest debut by any QB in league history. That's made all the more impressive by the fact Mullens is an undrafted free agent that spent time on the practice squad. But he won't be sneaking up on anybody this time, even if "anybody" means the lowly 1-7 Giants, who are about as desperate for a win as a team could possibly be. They're off a bye and I'll take the points. 

No matter what Odell Beckham Jr says, the Giants aren't going to make the playoffs. But with this game and hosting Tampa Bay next week, they at least have some winnable games on the horizon. Eli Manning's days as a viable starter in this league are over, but it's inexcusable how poorly this offense has performed given the talent at the skill positions, whether you're talking Beckham or Saquon Barkley. It's not all Manning's fault mind you; the offensive line is bad as well. However, something to keep in mind here is that the Giants are a better team than the Raiders, who basically laid down last Thursday vs. the 49ers. I expect effort from the G-Men coming off the bye. 

Another important point when handicapping this game is the line itself. The 49ers actually closed as a slight dog vs. the Raiders for the Thurs night home game. But off the shockingly great performance from Mullens, they are now favorites this week. That's critical to note because the Niners are money-burning 1-12 ATS as chalk w/ eight outright losses. Again, the Giants have had plenty of time to prepare for Mullens, a luxury the Raiders did not have. The Giants have lost a number of one score games this season while SF had not won a game by more than three points in 2018 before facing the Raiders. The Giants are the play here. 10* NY Giants 

10* Oakland (4:05 ET): Ok, so I KNOW what you're already saying. "Not the Raiders!" This team has certainly become somewhat of a "dumpster fire" here in 2018 w/ HC Jon Gruden totally dismantling the roster and the results (1-7 SU record) speak for themselves. But I have tremendous faith in my own personal power rankings and they say that - getting double digits at home - the Raiders are a tremendous value this week. Consider for a moment that when they played the Chargers out in LA last month, they were "only" a six-point dog. Now they lost the game 26-10 and have certainly not played much better since. But this is a ton of points at home. Take 'em.

The Chargers are a hot team right now as they've won five straight to get to 6-2 SU on the year. They are off perhaps their most impressive victory to date, 25-17 at Seattle. Before that, the list of teams that Los Angeles had beaten - Bills, 49ers, Raiders, Browns, Titans - wasn't all that impressive. Note that LW's game in Seattle hinged on an INT return for a TD early in the 4Q. But total yds were relatively even in that game (375-356 in favor of the Chargers). To me, this sets up to be the classic "trap game" for the Lightning Bolts, who have not been DD road favorites since 2009. Three of their last five victories have been by eight points or less.

Oakland was humiliated on national TV in its last game, a 34-3 loss to a 49ers team starting a 3rd string QB. That was on a Thursday, so at least they've had extra time to prepare here. As bad as things look right now for the Raiders, this is a division game coming on the heels of being mocked by everyone for a terrible effort. If they can't "get up" for this game, then you might as well just move them to Vegas on Monday. Too many points, not to take here. 10* Oakland

8* Cleveland (1:00 ET): There was a brief glimmer of hope early in the season (started 2-2-1), but it's back to the "same old Browns" as Cleveland has lost four in a row coming into this week. They fired both their HC (Hue Jackson) and OC (Todd Haley) two weeks ago, but that hardly mattered as the defense couldn't stop Kansas CIty in a 37-21 loss on Sunday. But few teams have been able to stop the Chiefs' offense this season. What's interesting here is that the lookahead line for this game had Cleveland getting only two points from the oddsmakers. After another blowout loss and Atlanta crushing Washington last week, the spread has moved substantially. To the point where now I believe we're getting some nice value w/ the Browns. Take the points.

The Falcons have fought their way back to 4-4 SU, winning three in a row. I don't think there's any denying that they are off their best game of the season, a 38-14 win over the Redskins where they rolled up nearly 500 total yds on a pretty good defense. But it was also the first time all season that Atlanta won a game by more than seven points. This is the second of back to back road games for the team, a situation they have not yet faced in 2018 and won't be in again for the rest of the season. Meanwhile, Cleveland is getting to play a second straight home game. The knock on Atlanta for years is that they aren't as good outdoors and Cleveland should be pretty chilly on Sunday. 

Incredibly, the Browns are on a 13-game ATS losing streak in the month of November. They have a banged up secondary coming into this game, which isn't good when facing a QB like Matt Ryan. But, despite the lack of success, the Browns have been largely competitive this season. They've gone to overtime FOUR times (1-2-1) and only three of their nine games have been decided by more than four points. All three have been in the last four weeks. I like the spot here and expect them to be competitive as QB Baker Mayfield actually played well last week, throwing for almost 300 yards. The Browns' defense is better than what it showed last week and has forced 23 turnovers on the year, a league-high. Meanwhile, the Atlanta defense is still 4th worst in the league in efficiency due to a combo of injuries and a tough schedule. The Falcons were 1-3 ATS as road favorites of a FG or more last season. 8* Cleveland

8* Detroit (1:00 ET): Another game where the line has shifted somewhat significantly from the lookahead. In this instance, the Bears are now favored over the Lions by about a touchdown, rather than a field goal. The shift has a lot to do w/ last week as the Bears routed Buffalo (41-9) while the Lions lost at Minnesota, 24-9. But sometimes looks can be deceiving as Chicago was actually outgained by the Bills (264-190) only to feast on Nathan Peterman turnovers, two of which were returned for touchdowns. Meanwhile, Detroit wasn't as bad as the final score showed last week. They had more first downs than the Vikings, but unfortunately allowed QB Matt Stafford to be sacked 10 times. The Lions have beaten the Bears 9 of the last 10 meetings. Take the points. 

With Chicago now "expected" to win, let's see how they perform. At the start of the year, this was a team that I said could surprise and get to 9-7 SU and the playoffs. That's precisely the trajectory that we're looking at right now. Perhaps their 5-3 SU record should not come as any shock seeing as they've been favored in six of their eight games. It's impressive that they are 5-3 ATS, but now the spreads are starting to get bigger. While they did cover last week as big road favorites, as I mentioned there were extenuating circumstances there. Before the last two weeks, only one of their games (a 48-10 win over Tampa Bay) had been decided by more than seven points. I'm just not convinced this team is ready to cover a third straight game as a big favorite.

Detroit should have the edge at QB in this game. The Bears' Mitchell Trubisky threw for only 355 yards (total) the last two weeks. For Chicago, this could be a lookahead spot as they have a huge home game vs. Minnesota next week (for 1st place in the NFC North). Meanwhile, Matt Patricia's Lions are fighting for relevancy. Another loss for them and the season would basically be over at 3-6 SU. We should be getting their best shot. I just feel this number is an overreaction to the final scores we've seen from both sides the L2 wks. Detroit isn't as bad and Chicago isn't as good as we've seen during that time. 8* Detroit

8* Tennessee (1:00 ET): The Titans picked up a much needed win on MNF, going to Dallas and beating the Cowboys 28-14 as 4-pt underdogs. Now they're on a short week against the Patriots, who are off a primetime win themselves, theirs coming Sunday night at home against Green Bay. While facing Bill Belichick on a short week is hardly ideal, at least the Titans have a former player for Belichick on their sidelines in the form of HC Mike Vrabel. So that helps. So too does getting this game in Nashville where they've won 12 of their last 15 games. New England hasn't been nearly as impressive on the road this year, losing at both Detroit and Jacksonville and needing a tackle on the 1-yd line to win in Chicago. Their lone road win this year by more than seven points was in Buffalo and even then they needed a late "pick-six" to cover. Take the points. 

Two of Tennessee's four losses this year have been by a single point. They have just one loss by more than seven points and that was the last time they played a home game, three weeks ago vs. Baltimore (lost 21-0). That game saw them get completely overwhelmed by the Ravens' top-ranked defense, but I don't see that happening again here. Also, in four road games, the Patriots offense has only scored seven touchdowns, three of those in one game (Chicago). The Titans have a really good defense having not allowed more than 20 pts in regulation since Week 1. Another key factor in handicapping this game is Tennessee had its bye two weeks ago, so they are relatively "fresh." New England has yet to have its bye (comes next week) and is playing a 10th consecutive week.

Both teams won by two touchdowns last week, but for the Patriots, things were actually much closer than they ended up. The game was tied 17-17 and Green Bay was marching down for the go-ahead score when they fumbled the ball away. Meanwhile, the Titans largely dominated the Cowboys, outgaining them 340-297 and holding them scoreless in the second half. The Titans' offensive numbers for the year may not seem that impressive, but few teams have faced a tougher slate of defenses and they just scored their season high in points. The New England defense isn't that great as they have given up over six yards per play on the road. I'm actually expecting this to be a pretty low-scoring game, which will give the Titans a chance at the upset. 8* Tennessee

8* UNLV (10:30 ET): Second week in a row I'm playing against San Diego State in the late Saturday timeslot. Last week was a pretty easy win w/ New Mexico getting double digits at home. The Lobos scored a defensive touchdown early and led almost the whole way. Eventually, the Aztecs pulled out the win - and they should have, given a massive 401-142 edge in total yards - but it took three late scores to do so. Despite this, and all the team's deficiencies we discussed last week, we again find SDSU laying a big number, only this time at home. And again, I'll grab the points. 

UNLV comes into this game off a 48-3 loss at home (to Fresno State) and w/ an uncertain QB situation. The team desperately is hoping for Armani Rogers to be healthy enough to play here, but he probably won't start. Out since September 22nd, Rogers' absence has played a significant role in the Rebels' disappointing season. They haven't won since the injury, losing six straight, many of the blowout variety. No longer do the Rebels have a shot at being bowl eligible, but knocking off a team like San Diego State could be a season highlight. Now an outright win here would surprise me, but I do think the Rebels can certainly keep it close, especially with Rogers back.

If Rogers were to play, it would create a situation where San Diego State would have to prepare for two very different QB's, the more mobile Rogers and the traditional passer Max Gilliam. Last week was not indicative of where this UNLV program is really at right now. They were up against the best team in the Mountain West and were w/o their best offensive player (Rogers). With Rogers back, the Rebels become a much more effective offense when it comes to running the ball. As discussed last week, San Diego State has not been able to blow teams out this year. This is due to a combination of committing too many penalties and an offense that averages only 22.2 PPG (less than the spread here!). Last week was actually the Aztecs' highest scoring effort of the year! They're 0-6 ATS as favorites in 2018 and have not won a game by more than eight points. Their six wins over FBS schools have come by a total of 31 points. 8* UNLV

8* Mississippi State (3:30 ET): Yep. I'm willing to step in front of the Alabama train here. This may very well go down as Nick Saban's best team EVER in Tuscaloosa (think about that for a second), but the situation this week is hardly favorable. The Crimson Tide are coming off the quintessential "statement" game, having shutout rival LSU 29-0 last week. This would be the proverbial letdown spot. Not that I expect Bama to lose mind you, but look for the game to be closer than the experts think. As is the case for most Bama opponents, Mississippi State will treat this as their biggest regular season game. The Bulldogs are starting to gain traction offensively (scored 45 pts last week) and have gone 6-3 ATS this year despite being an underdog only twice. Take the points. 

Here's a "dirty little secret." Mississippi State is actually giving up fewer points per game than Alabama this season. The Bulldogs allow just 12.3 PPG (2nd nationally) while Bama is allowing 14.1 (7th). MSU has not given up more than 19 pts in any game since a 28-7 loss at Kentucky back on September 22nd. Now they have been held to 7 pts or less in all three losses. But I don't expect that to be the case here.This will be the first time this year that Alabama is facing a defense allowing fewer points per game than they do. I expect a little bit of a good old fashioned SEC "slugfest" here. Mississippi State has lost 10 straight to Alabama, but it was a 7-point game LY in Starkville, also the week after the Crimson Tide faced LSU. 

A big key (at least to me) in handicapping this game is that while Alabama was busy facing LSU last week, Mississippi State enjoyed a virtual "bye" in a 45-3 thrashing of Louisiana Tech. Don't forget that Alabama still has the Iron Bowl left (after they face The Citadel next week). Mississippi State is 8-5 ATS as an underdog the L3 seasons w/ five outright wins. Again, I'm not expecting an outright win here, I just think the situation lends itself to taking a big number and I'd also like to point out that I have MSU ranked in the top 10 of my own personal power rankings. Look for them to keep this game within three touchdowns. 8* Mississippi State

10* Georgia Southern (1:00 ET): Though my own personal numbers indicated they should have been a much bigger favorite, I stayed away from Georgia Southern last Saturday, feeling that it was an absolutely horrible spot for them to lay points, on the road no less, coming off the huge win over Appalachian State. Turns out that feeling was correct as the Eagles went down at the hands of LA Monroe, 44-25, in what was easily their worst performance of the season. They found themselves down 27-3 before halftime and were outgained 573-216 for the game. But you have to keep in mind that the only other team to beat Ga Southern this year was #2 Clemson. In what shapes up as their most important game of the year, I'll call for the Eagles to bounce back in Statesboro. 

Troy is the only team w/o a conference loss in the Sun Belt. They are 5-0 SU, meaning they're up by one game over both Ga Southern and Appalachian State. Earlier in the year, the Trojans treated me to a nice upset over Nebraska, although we didn't know just how bad the Cornhuskers were yet and the Troy was actually held to only 243 total yards in that game. Still, the Trojans are 7-2 SU at this point in the season (same as Ga Southern) w/ their only losses coming to Boise State and Liberty. They have not yet faced Appalachian State as that game is the regular season finale, in Boone. Troy has hardly faced the most challenging schedule so far in conference play and wasn't all that impressive in a 26-16 win over Louisiana last week as seven-point home favorites. 

If Ga Southern were to win here, then they control their own destiny in the Sun Belt East Division and would have the tiebreaker over both Troy and Appalachian State. So you can see just how important this game truly is. A loss and the division likely goes to the winner of Troy-App State at the end of the year. The good news is this game being in Statesboro where the Eagles are a perfect 5-0 SU this year and outscoring opponents by nearly 23 PPG. They'd also beaten Troy six straight times prior to LY's 38-16 loss. But Ga Southern was not a good team last year (went just 2-10 SU). This year, they're back up to 7th in the country in rushing offense. They steamrolled a very good App State team on this field two weeks ago. They are the better team and should be favored here. 10* Georgia Southern

8* Duke (12:20 ET): Every season, for certain teams, there comes a time when one must reconcile expectations w/ reality. For North Carolina, that time has long since passed. Coming off a 3-9 SU season, the Tar Heels were widely expected to be a lock to improve in 2018. That simply has not happened. It was a bit of an auspicious offseason w/ HC Larry Fedora having questionable takes on CTE. There was the early season disruption of Hurricane Florence. But the bottom line is that this team simply hasn't been any good this year. I did take them back in Game 3, against Pitt, when they were off an unexpected bye due to the Hurricane (and, for UNC's sake, thank goodness that game vs. UCF was cancelled!). They won that game, but that's their ONLY win this year. With nothing left to play for, I expect these last couple weeks to go very poorly for the Tar Heels. 

Expect Duke to have no sympathy for their rival this weekend in Durham. The Blue Devils are coming off their first road win over Miami FL since 1976. They were outgained 411-290, yet still pulled the 20-12 upset as nine-point dogs. Though its unlikely that they'll win the ACC Coastal, I expect Duke to play well down the stretch. They'd dropped B2B games before beating Miami. Here, they'll be looking for their first home win since Sept 22. They'll also be looking for a fifth win in seven years over UNC. Though that's the case, they've won only 5 of the past 28 meetings. So there's still a sense of "payback" for the program. 

Expect the Duke offense to have little difficulty scoring on a UNC defense that is allowing 34.7 PPG. In five of its last six games, the Tar Heels have allowed at least 31 points. The Blue Devils are just two weeks removed from a 45-point, 600+ yard performance against Pitt. Last week, they were forced to play in the slop at Miami. Conditions should be a lot more conducive to a big offensive day here and that includes facing this porous UNC defense. The Tar Heels have been outscored by nearly 16 PPG on the road. My power rankings indicate a similar, if not slightly larger, margin of victory for the favorite here. 8* Duke

10* Boise State (10:15 ET): A home underdog on the blue turf? That's virtually unheard of. In fact, it has not happened in more than a decade! The last time they were a home dog to a conference opponent was 1999. So enter Fresno State, ranked #23 in the country and an incredible 18-3-2 ATS in 23 games under HC Jeff Tedford. This is a rubber match of sorts with the teams splitting a pair of meetings last season, each winning at home. Boise State's win turned out to be more important as it came in the Mt West Champ Game. They were also nine-point favorites in the 17-14 win. While FSU is - without question - improved this year, I do not believe they deserve to be the favorite here. Boise State is still outscoring its visitors by almost three touchdowns per game this year. 

Fresno State has been blowing out the competition. They are 5-0 SU/ATS in conference games w/ an average margin of victory of almost 30 PPG. In four of the five games, they've given up seven points or less! But it's been "competition" in name only as the Bulldogs haven't exactly been taking on the best that the Mountain West has to offer. They're coming off games against Nevada, Hawaii, Wyoming, New Mexico and UNLV. They also play San Jose State (at home) in the season finale. I don't have any of those teams rated higher than 86th in my power rankings. Remember that Fresno State lost to Minnesota earlier this year. The next two weeks, this game and San Diego State, will be the true referendum on their season. 

It won't be easy for Boise State to move the ball against this Fresno State defense, however, QB Brett Rypien will be the best that FSU has seen all season. Rypien has a 24-6 TD-INT ratio and the Broncos are 20th in FBS in total offense. Fresno State has lost nine straight trips here and I just can't get over Boise State as a home dog. They are 2-0 ATS as dogs in this, their 5th year under HC Bryan Harsin. Both times came last year and one resulted in an outright upset of San Diego State. The Broncos have a pretty good defense as well, having allowed 20 pts or fewer five times. As impressive as Fresno State has been so far, it's come at the expense of a pretty weak schedule. This is - easily - their toughest test to date. 10* Boise State

8* Wake Forest (7:30 ET): I don't believe for a second that North Carolina State is the 14th best team in the country entering this weekend. In fact, I don't even count the Wolfpack among my top 40 teams in the country! That rationale is the basis for this Thursday night ACC play as Wake Forest comes calling to Raleigh. Now I'm not particularly high on the Demon Deacons either. But this is a generous pointspread for a team that generally competes hard for HC Dave Clawson. NC State is likely still reveling in last week's 47-28 beatdown of Florida State, which isn't all that impressive (the Seminoles are BAD), but still meant a lot to the program. Wake is only 1-5 ATS as a dog TY, but had previously gone 11-2 in that role. They also beat NC State last year, 30-24 in Winston-Salem.

I have to say that I'm a bit surprised to see NC State at 6-2 on the year. Granted, the West Virginia game getting cancelled (Hurricane Florence) probably helped considering that would have been a likely loss to the Mountaineers. My regulars will recall the Wolfpack were an easy fade (for me) when they squared off against #2 Clemson in a battle of unbeatens. The market "tipped its hand" by installing NC State as large underdogs in that one (closed +18.5), but it still wasn't enough in an embarrassing 41-7 loss. Now, this isn't Clemson that they're facing this week. But be aware that last week was the team's first win by more than 17 points since beating a terrible Georgia State team 41-7 back in Week 2. This will be their 1st time as DD chalk since that game. 

NC State came in ranked (#25) for LY's meeting w/ Wake as well. The upset marked the third straight year the Demon Deacons beat a ranked team. They're 0-3 SU in such situations in 2018 and this is probably their last time facing a Top 25 team. They also need to win two of the final three games in order to be bowl eligible. Clawson is faced w/ a QB dilemma here as starter Sam Hartman is out for the rest of the regular season w/ a leg injury. So it will either be Kendall Hinton (who has previous starting experience) or redshirt soph Jamie Newman under center for this game. Maybe that doesn't sound ideal, but recall that the Demon Deacons were w/o their best offensive player (WR Greg Dortsch) when they upset the Wolfpack. I just don't like the idea of laying so many points w/ NC State. 8* Wake Forest

8* Toledo (8:00 ET): Last week, I was on Toledo while also playing against Northern Illinois, so I suppose I have a bit of a built-in "predilection" towards the Rockets here. But this play is certainly based on more than just the results of one week. Toledo appears to be peaking at the right time as they ended October w/ B2B blowout wins over Western Michigan and Ball State coming by a combined 59 points. As per usual, this matchup w/ NIU is likely to determine the MAC West Champion. The Huskies lead the division as they are the only MAC team - besides Buffalo - w/o a conference loss. But they've been living dangerously much of this season, winning close and not scoring a ton of points. I believe Toledo is set to come into DeKalb and pull the upset. 

The Toledo offense definitely seems to be back on track. They've scored 96 points and gone over 1,000 total yards the L2 games and run for at least 200 yards in four of the last five contests. Despite five turnovers LW (also had five takeaways), they had little difficulty vs. Ball State, jumping out to a 21-0 halftime lead. As mentioned in last week's analysis, 2018 is the 1st time in eight years that the Rockets suffered four losses in their first eight games. They've produced a winning ATS record seven of the last eight years, but currently stand at just 4-5 vs. the number. The QB carousel has not mattered as this offense is now averaging over 40 PPG and 6.0 yards per play. Eli Peters will get the start at QB Wednesday, his 3rd of '18. He has thrown for nearly 1,000 yds on the season. 

Northern Illinois does not have an offense that can compare to Toledo's. In fact, the Huskies had not topped 26 pts in a game prior to LW's 36-26 win at Akron. Note that was a three-point game until NIU had a key "pick-six" in the 4Q. The offense is averaging less than 20 PPG, so laying points w/ them is less than ideal. The Huskies have actually been held to seven points or less in three of their nine games! All but one win this year (last week!) has been by one score w/ three coming by a FG or less. In the win over Ohio three weeks ago, the Huskies were able to rally from a double digit deficit. Then came the ugliest of victories, 7-6 over BYU, where they barely gained 200 yards total offense. I believe Toledo is the better team here and thus I'll take the points. 8* Toledo

10* Miami OH (7:00 ET): This is a rivalry game. "The Battle of the Bricks" takes place every year between Ohio and Miami, two schools separated by 189 miles (on opposite sides of Columbus). This is the 95th all-time meeting and Ohio has had the edge under HC Frank Solich, going 11-2 SU w/ five consecutive victories. There have been some real "lean" years for Miami during that time, but there's no reason this year's team shouldn't compete, if not finally break the losing skid. The RedHawks are also in a situation where they must win out to become bowl eligible. The last two years have been relatively disappointing in Oxford, but a win over their rival would go a long way in changing that. This spread seems too heavily influenced by last week's results. Take the points. 

In 2016, Miami became the 1st team in NCAA history to open 0-6 and then win its final six regular season games. After that, there was some real optimism surrounding the program after it had made just one postseason appearance (2010) since the Ben Roethlisberger era. But the last two years have been disappointing. They finished just 5-7 SU a year ago and enter this game 3-6 SU after a loss to MAC East leader Buffalo last week. However, two of the RedHawks' last three losses have been by one point and LW's game was back & forth, tied 42-42 entering the 4Q. My view is that this team is better than its record. They have a very capable QB in Gus Ragland, who threw for 313 yards last week on 20 of 35 passing.

Ohio controls its own destiny in the MAC East w/ a potentially huge first place showdown looming next week against Buffalo. Though this is a rivalry game, I can see the Bobcats looking past it. There is no doubt in my mind that this game would have been closer to a pick 'em if not for Ohio absolutely destroying Western Michigan last week (in Kalamazoo!) 59-14. That game saw the Bobcats take an astonishing 45-0 halftime lead. Note that they were +6 in turnover differential, had three scoring drives of less than 20 yards plus a blocked punt returned for touchdown. I know Ohio has covered four straight and averaged 53.3 PPG in the last three. But they were just 1-3 SU away from Athens prior to last week and their rival will be more than ready, having had two extra days to prepare. 10* Miami OH 

8* Seattle (4:05 ET): This is a good matchup of two teams that appear to be playoff caliber. Seattle won big for me last week as my *10* Game of the Week, going into Detroit and winning outright (were three point dogs) 28-14. After an 0-2 start, the Seahawks have won four of five and what's most impressive about that is only one of their last four games was played here at Century Link Field. Ironically, that happens to be the last loss they suffered, but it was by only two against the still unbeaten Rams. So much for the breakup of the "Legion of Boom" as this defense is giving up just 18.7 points and 327.3 yards per game, both top five marks in the league. QB Russell Wilson continues to make plays for an offense averaging 28.3 PPG the last three weeks. 

LA is 5-2. Their only losses have been to the Chiefs and Rams. Somewhat uncharacteristic, but the Chargers are 2-0 in games decided by three points or less. (For years, they have had one of the worst records in close games). But while there's no shame in losing to teams like the Chiefs and Rams, let's take a look at those five teams the Chargers have defeated: Buffalo, San Francisco, Oakland, Cleveland and Tennessee. Those are all teams with losing records and four of them (sans Tennessee) just might be bottom five teams in the league. They barely survived Tennessee over in London two weeks ago, needing to stop a 2-pt conversion attempt on the game's final play (won 20-19). Despite being off a bye, RB Melvin Gordon is questionable to play this week.

Seattle enjoys one of the league's strongest homefield advantages, so I'm surprised they're not favored here. Through the years, it's been exceedingly rare to get the Seahawks laying three points or less at home. They were underdogs to the Rams, easily covering the spread there. Their only other home game was a 24-13 win over Dallas. The offense has run for 155+ yards in four straight games. The Chargers' run defense did allow 164 yards on 33 carries to the Titans, so they might be susceptible. The Chargers have not beaten a good team yet this year, so I give the Seahawks a significant edge at home. 8* Seattle

10* Baltimore (1:00 ET): Pittsburgh won big for me last week, as expected, beating Cleveland 33-18 as 8-pt favorites. I thought it was an ideal spot to play the Steelers as they were coming off a bye, at home, and the Browns had just played their fourth overtime game of the season. Plus, they'd actually drastically outplayed Cleveland in a tie earlier in the season. As it turns out, the Browns wound up firing BOTH their head coach and offensive coordinator after the game. This week is a far less ideal spot for the Black & Gold as they head to Baltimore to face the rival Ravens. Baltimore has dropped B2B games to fall to 4-4 SU, but they did win in Pittsburgh earlier in the year. I took the Ravens in that first meeting as they rolled to a 26-14 win and cover. I expect the rematch to go pretty similarly. 

After that win in Pittsburgh, the Ravens looked like one of the best teams in the AFC as they were 3-1. But they've since dropped three of four, two of the losses coming in brutal fashion. One was in overtime at Cleveland, a 12-9 final. The other was at home vs. New Orleans where usually sure-footed kicker Justin Tucker missed what would have been the game-tying XP in the final minute of regulation. Last week was the team's weakest effort of the year as they went down in Carolina 36-21. Being -3 in turnovers did them no favors there. The Ravens defense continues to lead the league in scoring (17.1 PPG allowed) and is the ONLY one in the league allowing fewer than 300 YPG. That will come in quite handy this week for their biggest game of the year. 

The Ravens haven't lost B2B games very often under HC John Harbaugh. They did so twice last year, but both times they came back w/ a double digit victory the next game. Only having to lay a short number w/ them at home here is quite ideal as they're 5-2 SU and ATS the L7 times as a home favorite of three points or less. They really dominated that first meeting in Pittsburgh, outgaining the Steelers 451-284 w/ a 24-14 edge in first downs. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger fractured his index finger last week and while he's going to be on the field, don't think it won't negatively impact his play. 10* Baltimore

8* Cleveland (1:00 ET): The Browns were my top go against last week as I was on the Steelers. I thought it was a horrible spot for the Browns as Pittsburgh was off a bye and they were off their fourth OT game of the year w/ the defense having played a season-high 95 snaps. The Browns couldn't beat the Steelers at home in Week 1 despite a torrential downpour and being +5 in turnovers. Turns out, I was right. Cleveland lost 33-18 (scored a garbage-time TD) and subsequently fired its head coach (Hue Jackson) and OC (Todd Haley). DC Gregg Williams now takes over as the interim, trying desperately to provide a spark for a team that has lost three in a row. The Browns have an exciting rookie QB in Baker Mayfield, but let's face it: this has been the most miserable franchise in the entire NFL for two decades.

Meanwhile, things couldn't be any more different for Kansas City. They are one of top teams in the league, led by QB Patrick Mahomes, who has thrown 4 TD passes in three straight games. The Chiefs lead the league in offense, averaging 36.2 points per game. There has been only one game where they didn't score at least 30 points and their only loss was by a field goal at New England. But if there is one albatross, it's a defense that is permitting 432.4 yards per game. Despite that great offense, the Chiefs have actually been outgained on the year as the defense ranks 31st. They've been outgained in six of eight games overall!

Cleveland has struggled to close games, but they've lost only twice by more than a field goal, one of those last week. The Browns' defense has been quite opportunistic, leading the league w/ 22 forced turnovers. The pass defense has been one of the best in the league, particularly at home where visiting QB's are posting the lowest QBR in the league. Really, the team should have a better record than 2-5-1. I mentioned last week that it looked as if Mayfield had been regressing, well now he's freed from the Jackson-Haley power struggle. This is simply too many points for KC to lay on the road as I expect the Browns to play inspired after the coaching change. 8* Cleveland

8* New Mexico (10:15 ET): Needless to say, HC Rocky Long has enjoyed an unparalleled amount of success in the long standing rivalry between San Diego State and New Mexico. When Long was the HC at New Mexico, his Lobos won eight straight over the Aztecs from 2001-08. Now as the HC at San Diego State, it's the Aztecs that currently enjoy a six-game win streak in this Mt West rivalry! So I realize it's risky to try and fade Long in this matchup late Saturday night, especially considering San Diego State is 12-0 SU against teams w/ losing records the L3 seasons. But this is a pretty big number to lay in Albuquerque for an Aztecs team that only averages 21.1 points per game. 

San Diego State lost as favorites last week on the road, falling to Nevada 28-24. They were just a two-point choice there. Despite outgaining the Wolf Pack 456-297 (24-14 in first downs), the Aztecs were shutout in the second half. This has simply not been a good ATS team in 2018 as their only win by more than a touchdown came against FCS school, Sacramento State. Their other five wins have been by a total of 23 points. So I don't see how they can be asked to lay this number on the road. They only beat a terrible San Jose State team by three at home and have not scored more than 24 points in any conference game. They are 0-5 ATS when favored this season. 

 Now New Mexico is off a 61-19 drubbing at the hands of Utah State last week and a 38-7 loss to Fresno State the game before. But those just might be the two best teams in the MWC this year. Having never beaten Long, UNM HC Bob Davie is going to be particularly motivated here, especially w/ his Lobos needing to win three of the final four games to be bowl eligible. Not that it would have changed the final outcome, but five turnovers killed this team last week. Davie's future is very much up in the air, so he badly needs a big win and to get the Lobos to the postseason. Davie has made another change at QB for this game as it will Colton Gerhart taking snaps, bringing a run-pass mix option to the table. The change makes the underdog a little tougher to prepare for and I think they keep it close. 8* New Mexico 

8* SMU (7:00 ET): Houston treated me very well last week as my top American Conference Game of the Year. They routed USF 57-36, gaining nearly 700 total yards of offense in the process. Not surprisingly then, the Cougars are the quintessential "public side" this week at SMU, a team w/ a losing record. Houston has scored at least 41 points in every game this season and outside of still unbeaten UCF, should be viewed as the top team in this conference. But this shapes up to be the proverbial letdown game, a situation where they're off the biggest win of the year and have another big home game on deck, vs. Temple, next week. Meanwhile, this could be viewed as SMU's biggest home game of the year outside of TCU. The Mustangs have played a fairly challenging schedule to this point and generally been competitive. I'll take the points. 

Earlier this year, I took SMU as a home dog and came out w/ a winning ticket. It was against Navy, a game they won outright 31-30. It was at a time when the team was coming off B2B losses to TCU and Michigan. Last week was another OT game, only this time the Ponies lost on a pick-six to Cincinnati. There was only overtime because Cincinnati drove for a game-tying FG at the end of regulation. Still, SMU covered as 8.5-pt dogs, so they're 4-1 ATS the last five times they have taken points. The only ATS loss during that time came at unbeaten UCF. Note that the Mustangs were within two scores of Michigan in the Big House in the 4th quarter earlier in the year. They also upset Tulane on the road two weeks ago. 

Houston was only a six-point favorite at home when it beat SMU 35-22 last season. They certainly haven't forgotten their last trip here to Gerald J. Ford Stadium either as two years ago saw SMU record its first win over a ranked opponent at home in five years w/ a resounding 38-16 triumph. A key here w/ UH laying so many points is that they have a defense that gives up 480 yards per game and who knows if DE Ed Oliver will be held out again. Look for the Mustangs to score enough to hang around and stay inside the number. 8* SMU

10* Tulane (3:30 ET): I will continue to play against South Florida as they may have the most misleading record in the entire country right now. I've been saying it for weeks (months?) now and it finally came to fruition last week as the Bulls were blown out at Houston, losing 57-36. It was USF's first loss of the year, but by no means their first shaky - or even poor - performance. In my analysis last week, I noted that I didn't even have USF ranked among my top 80 teams in the country! So the fact they were Top 25 was quite laughable to me. Despite taking the loss, this is still a team overvalued in the marketplace because of its record. This will be the fourth consecutive game I play against the Bulls - and fifth time overall this season. I expect to be 5-0 ATS by the time Saturday night rolls around. 

The first time I played against USF this year was when they hosted East Carolina on Sept 24th. They were on the heels of two narrow, come from behind victories over Georgia Tech and Illinois the previous two weeks. Somehow - despite ECU having a 24-9 edge in first downs - USF was able to sneak by the Pirates, 20-13. But they did not cover as 22-pt chalk. Nor did they cover the second time I faded them, a weeknight game at Tulsa, which required another late comeback. Tulsa and Illinois are a combined 4-12 SU, yet USF trailed both by two scores in the 4th quarter. The next week, I took a big number w/ UConn (+33) and USF never even came close to covering that, winning only 38-30 against one of the worst teams in the entire country. Then came last week's loss to Houston where the defense surrendered 57 pts and nearly 700 total yards. It was the 3rd game this year that USF has been outgained by at least 150 total yards. They've been down at the end of the 1st quarter in six of their eight games. 

Tulane comes in at 3-5 SU overall and will need to win three of its final four games to be bowl eligible. Considering a road date w/ Houston looms, the Green Wave probably need to win this game. They've won 4 and 5 games in two years under HC Willie Fritz, last year getting denied a sixth win in the final regular season game when they were stopped at the goal line on the final play. The key here for them is a change at QB where LSU transfer Justin McMillan has replaced senior Jonathan Banks. McMillan averaged nearly 10.0 yards per carry last week in a 24-17 win at Tulsa where the offense gained 312 yards on the ground. They also gained 300+ yards rushing earlier in the year in an upset of Memphis. Over the L3 wks, USF's defense has allowed 220, 322 (to UConn!) and 263 yds rushing. 10* Tulane 

10* TCU (3:30 ET): The Horned Frogs are off one of the more embarrassing defeats of the Gary Patterson era as they fell to Kansas last week, 27-26 as 13.5-pt favorites. They "should have" won; note a near +200 edge in total yards and the fact they fumbled on the KU six-yard line in the final minute. But still, that's no excuse to lose to a team that had dropped its previous 38 October games! Shockingly, TCU has won just one of its last six games, but two of the last three losses coming by a field goal or less. They've also had to take on both Ohio State and Oklahoma this year and they played the former very tough in what was a neutral site game. Last week "should have" been the Horned Frogs' easiest game of the year, instead it was their most embarrassing. I'll now call for their "best" performance to date as they're back home to face Kansas State. Lay the points. 

Kansas State did pull an upset a few weeks ago over Oklahoma State, but did so at home. This is simply not one of Bill Snyder's better teams. Coming off the upset of OSU and a bye, the Wildcats were trounced last week down in Oklahoma, 51-14. Certainly, no one gave them a real shot of beating the Sooners, but they were completely dominated. OU outgained them 702-245 for the game and led 48-7 heading into the fourth quarter. Kansas State is 0-3 on the road this season w/ two of the losses coming by at least 29 points. Next week, they host rival Kansas, which may be what the coaching staff is more focused on right now. TCU has been upset three times already this year, so their coaching staff isn't looking past anybody at this point. 

Facing a backup QB last year, the TCU defense held Kansas State to a season-low 216 yards and won 26-6. Now neither team is as good as they were in 2017, but I think it's instructive to note the Horned Frogs were six-point chalk LY in Manhattan and now barely more than that here in Ft. Worth. The Frogs have performed shockingly poor at home ATS the L3 seasons (just 2-15!), but this line is a bargain. Despite the three-game losing skid, TCU is still 38-15 SU off a loss under HC Patterson and has NEVER dropped four in a row during his tenure. Last week saw them average 7.0 yards per play while allowing only 4.6. Had they not lost that game to Kansas, we're probably looking at a double digit line here. Good value. QB Michael Collins, only starting because of an injury to Shawn Robinson, threw for 351 yards last week and Kansas State's secondary is suspect to say the least. 10* TCU

8* Colorado (10:30 ET): When "unpacking" this College Football season, you may not find a more shocking result than what happened last week between Colorado and Oregon State. It's not that the Buffs lost per se, although losing to team that was 0-22 its previous 22 road games is pretty embarrassing. It's HOW they lost. They actually led 31-3 midway through the third quarter, which is when the wheels began to come off. Oregon State put together a 24-point fourth quarter to send the game into OT and won 41-38 as 26-pt underdogs. Colorado had more total yards, but failed to put the game away by missing field goals and turning it over on downs. Needless to say, a Buffaloes team that was once 5-0 SU (now 5-3) should be plenty motivated in the desert Friday night. 

Meanwhile, Arizona is off its biggest win of the season. I'm proud to say that I was on it as the Wildcats treated me to a 44-15 upset of #19 Oregon late last Saturday night. Key was not just the return of QB Khalil Tate, but also three Oregon turnovers. I have to say that, even as someone who was holding a ticket on the Wildcats, it was pretty shocking how easily dominated the Ducks. After all, this is a team that had been blown out twice this year (at Houston, at Utah) and also had lost twice at home (BYU, USC). They entered that Oregon game off B2B losses, having even dropped a one-point game to lowly 2-6 UCLA. I think it's important we don't overreact too much to one great performance from the Wildcats. 

This game is very important for both teams' bowl eligibility. Being bowl eligible once seemed like a formality for Colorado, but not anymore as they've dropped three straight. Make no mistake about it; they "should have" won last week. Arizona has won five of the previous six meetings, including 45-42 LY in Boulder, which is when Tate came onto the scene and set a FBS rushing record for QB's w/ 327 (!) yards. The road team has won three straight in this Pac 12 rivalry and I can't help but think Colorado is the value play here coming off a loss while Arizona simply is not as good as it looked last week. 8* Colorado 

8* Pittsburgh (7:30 ET): So I decided to take a "second look" at this game this morning and have come to the conclusion that I can't see Virginia winning by more than one score. We have two hot ACC teams here, both on three-game ATS win streaks. Pitt did lose once SU during that span, but that was by only five points at Notre Dame. It feels like the Panthers are still being unfairly weighed down by a bit of a rough start to the season. Similarly, it feels as if Virginia is being overvalued on the heels of a three-game win streak. I'm taking the points here in what feels like an even matchup.

The biggest concern I have w/ Pitt here is they are 0-3 on the road. Their offense simply hasn't performed as well as it has at home, but let's be fair and note two of their road games came against teams that are still unbeaten, UCF and Notre Dame. The other was a three-point loss (to North Carolina) where they scored 35 points. Last week saw them roll up a season-high 634 yards (484 on the ground) and 54 points in a win over a very good Duke team. Note the final score of 54-45 is a little misleading as the Panthers scored the go-ahead TD and a safety in the final five seconds. Still, it's going to be very difficult for Virginia to outscore this team, especially by the margin the oddsmakers are calling for here. 

UVA has lost only two games this year, both on the road (Indiana, NC State). They're a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS here in Charlottesville, but that record has clearly inflated this line. It's interesting to see Pitt basically getting the same number as UNC did last week. Yes, UNC beat Pitt, but the Panthers were still favored to win that game in Chapel Hill. Virginia is now ranked, another influence on the line. I don't think for one second that the Cavaliers are one of the top 25 teams in the country. They've lost to Pitt three straight times, including 31-14 last year. Whomever wins this game will be in first place in the ACC Coastal, so it's not like Pitt won't be highly motivated. The Panthers are 4-2 ATS as underdogs this year, winning three of those games outright. 8* Pittsburgh 

8* Oakland (8:20 ET): What a terrible Thursday night matchup this is. We have the 1-6 Raiders, clearly going through an .. ahem .. "transitional" phase under HC Jon Gruden. Then there's 1-7 49ers, who are as decimated by injury as any team in the league. While they're by no means playing "well," my view is that Oakland is the better team here and their issues are more correctable. San Francisco's season basically ended when QB Jimmy Garoppolo went down w/ an ACL injury. Backup CJ Beathard certainly wasn't capable of saving things, especially w/ an injury riddled supporting cast. Now Beathard is hurt too and may not be able to play Thursday. That means it could be third string QB Nick Mullens making his first career start. Yikes. 

The Raiders actually led at the half in each of the first three games, only to lose every time, before finally picking up a win (in overtime) at the Browns' expense. Since that win, things have not gone well w/ three straight double digit losses, another Gruden trade and reports of malcontent in the locker room. The fact of the matter is that the Khalil Mack trade (right before the start of the reg season) set an ominous tone. But the team has actually played well in spots for Gruden. Not against the Chargers or the Seahawks in London, mind you, but last week they led Indianapolis into the fourth quarter. QB Derek Carr certainly played well, accounting for 4 TD passes. Carr is completing 72% of his passes this season. 

Carr will certainly be better than whomever the 49ers trot out at the QB position. Beathard injured his thumb in Sunday's 18-15 loss to Arizona. Note that Cardinals team has two wins in 2018 and both were at the 49ers' expense. Mullens has never taken a NFL regular season snap and things are so dire here that the team has signed Tom Savage to be a backup! Right now, San Francisco is as talent bereft as any team in the league. As bad as things have been for the Raiders, they've actually only been favored in one game and that was the one they won against Cleveland. So it's not like they're falling short of oddsmakers' expectations. They're underdogs again this week, but the 49ers are simply not a team that deserves to be favored at this point. 8* Oakland

10* Akron (7:00 ET): Northern Illinois enters the week at 5-3 overall. They are the only MAC West team w/o a loss (4-0) in conference play and they've won four in a row overall. So they are your current leaders in the division and on pace to play in the Conference Title Game. However, looks can be deceiving. This is not the normal dominant team out of DeKalb; in fact they've been outgained and outscored on the year despite the winning record. Last week was an all-time ugly 7-6 win over BYU where they gained only 204 total yds and 11 first downs. They had just 84 total yds in the second half, 65 of those coming on their one TD drive that saw them convert three third downs, one via penalty. I'll get more into it later, but I want no part of laying pts w/ this Huskies team on the road.

Akron has won B2B games, keeping its hopes of bowl eligibility alive. The Zips did win the MAC East a year ago, though they were pretty clearly NOT the division's best team. However, the key was beating both Buffalo and Ohio here at Infocision Stadium. The Zips are 7-2 SU overall at home the L2 years, one of those losses coming this year in a game where they turned it over five times. The other was to an Iowa State team that won 8 games LY. On Saturday, they beat Central Michigan here, 17-10 as four-point chalk. They did so despite losing the turnover battle by three (led 17-0 at halftime). Assuming they can take better care of the football here, Akron is more than capable of pulling the outright upset. This will be the 1st time they've been a home dog in 2018. This is a team that won at Northwestern earlier in the year and also covered against Iowa State in Ames. 

All three Northern Illinois losses this year have come by double digits. All five wins have been by eight points or less, including three by three points or less. So that plays a significant role in me wanting to fade them in the role of road favorite. The Huskies have not had to make the trip to Akron since 2012. Akron's last win over NIU was 2005 so they'll be motivated. The Northern Illinois offense is averaging just 17.1 PPG and 4.0 yards per play. They have yet to score more than 26 pts in any game. In what is projected to be a very low scoring game (check that total!), I'll gladly take the points w/ the home team in this Thursday night matchup. 10* Akron

10* Toledo (7:30 ET): It looks as if I may have been a week early on the Toledo resurgence. Two weeks ago, I took the Rockets (as they were a rare home dog) and unfortunately, they came up short for me in a 31-17 loss to Buffalo (who has been the MAC's best team this year). But last week finally saw the Rockets blast off w/ a dominant 51-24 win at Western Michigan. They totaled over 500 yards of offense in the contest and did not commit a single turnover, a far cry from four giveaways they had vs. Buffalo. This is the first time in eight years that Toledo has four losses in its first eight games and lost two out of its first four conference games. An ATS resurgence should also be on the way as they've produced a winning record for bettors seven of the last eight years as well. Back at the Glass Bowl, I expect them to win big Wednesday night.

Ball State is not a very good team. Let's use that statement as our starting point. The Cardinals are just 3-6 SU w/ one win coming against a FCS school and another by one point at Central Michigan. Last week saw their defense get run over to the tune of 411 yards rushing by Ohio in a 52-14 beatdown. It was a 52-7 game heading into the fourth quarter w/ BSU giving up all those points in just two quarters of play! As you might expect, the Cardinals' defensive numbers are pretty horrific overall as they've allowed 94 pts total the L2 games. They're not too much better on offense where they are averaging just 16.0 PPG on the road. Even worse is that they're now going to be w/o starting QB Riley Neal after he suffered a knee injury in the loss to Ohio. 

Toledo is also dealing with an injury at the QB position as starter Mitchell Guadagni is questionable to play after exiting the Western Michigan game w/ a shoulder injury. But there are two reasons as to why the Rockets are far better equipped to deal w/ their QB injury than is Ball State. One is that backup Eli Peters has already started two games this season and he also threw three second half TD passes last week. The other is no matter who the QB is, they can rely on a run game that has gone for 225+ yards three of the last four games. Toledo should move the ball at ease in this game (again, regardless of who is playing QB) and, by the way, Ball State will probably be w/o its leading tackler (Jacob White, who was also injured in the Ohio game) and leading rusher James Gilbert is questionable as well. 10* Toledo

8* Kent State (8:00 ET): Bluntly speaking, there are many matchups of terrible teams on this week's CFB slate (UTEP-Rice definitely taking the cake). This one is definitely the first. Kent State and Bowling Green are both 0-4 in MAC play and 1-7 overall. Both can also be counted among my bottom 10 teams in the entire country. That said, Kent State is obviously the better team here, a fact that should be obvious by the fact Bowling Green isn't even laying the standard three points here at home. Further illustrating the Falcons' futility is the fact that they have been outscored by 22.1 points per game this season. Kent State is by no means a "good team," but they are only -12.0 PPG. This is easily the best chance for both teams to pick up a conference win this year and I think the Golden Flashes get it.

Kent State has actually had a couple of close losses in the L3 wks, both times outgaining their opponent. One came 10 days ago, their last game, against rival Akron. It was a very minor edge they had in total yards (371-362) and the game went into overtime. In OT, the Golden Flashes elected to go for two and the win after scoring a touchdown. They obviously failed. Two weeks prior, they led Ohio virtually the entire way (by as many as 14 pts), but gave up the lead with just under 90 seconds remaining. So they've at least come close to winning a couple of MAC games. They also played Illinois tough in the season opener, losing by just a touchdown on the road. I had them in a cover at Ole Miss earlier in the year as well. 

Like Kent State, BG's only win came against a FCS team. Kent State beat Howard while Bowling Green beat Eastern Kentucky. But let's now focus on the clear differences. Kent State blew out their FCS opponent, 54-14. Bowling Green barely beat theirs, only winning by a touchdown. They were even down by two touchdowns early and outgained for the game! Another difference is the Falcons have never come close to beating a MAC opponent. The closest they came was a touchdown. The other three losses have all been by 15+ or more. They have already fired their coach (Mike Jinks), making this a "lost season." Neither team has a very good defense, but the Golden Flashes have been slightly better on that side of the ball, particularly in the red zone. That's pretty much the story of these two teams as Kent State is simply slightly better in all facets. They also have revenge for five straight losses in the series. 8* Kent State

10* Buffalo (8:20 ET): This is a real "hold your nose and take the points" type situation. But before you go and write off this Bills chances here, be aware that they weren't as bad as the final score showed last week vs. Indianapolis. Total yardage was only -73 and the offense gained a strong 5.51 yards per play. The problem was five turnovers. As long of a season as it's been in upstate NY, the Bills still are fielding the fourth best defense in the league. This would be just the 4th time in the history of MNF that a home team is an underdog of 14 points. The three previous teams have gone a perfect 3-0 ATS. I think that defense can keep them in this one, even w/ Derek Anderson back at QB. 

New England seems to be humming along again after a 1-2 SU start. They've won four straight. But they've also given up a total of 71 pts the last two weeks. Now those games came against two quality foes, including Kansas City. But note that LW's game at Chicago was somewhat of a struggle. They needed TWO special teams TDs and a Hail Mary stop at the goal line on the game's final play. The road hasn't been that kind to the Patriots this season as LW was their 1st win after a pair of double digit losses. Something else to note is that they've committed at least one turnover in every game this season. 

Buffalo hasn't won a MNF game since 1999. They haven't won a MNF home game since '94! So, despite being seemingly outgunned and outmanned, expect a spirited atmosphere and motivated underdog. As ugly a season debut as it was last week, Derek Anderson's 175 yards passing were actually the team's most in four weeks. I think the potential loss of LeSean McCoy is somewhat overblown considering the tandem of Chris Ivory and Marcus Murphy combined to average 6.1 yards per carry last week. Since 2012, as a double digit road favorite, the Patriots are just 1-4-1 ATS w/ two outright losses. The Bills have been a DD home dog only three times in the last 30 years and have covered twice. No matter the teams, my view will almost always be that this is too many points to lay on the road. 10* Buffalo

8* Oakland (4:05 ET): Needless to say, the Raiders are officially at "rock bottom." Reports of discontent are rampant with anonymous players questioning the leadership of both HC Jon Gruden and QB Derek Carr. The team is 1-5 SU w/ its only win coming in overtime against Cleveland, a game in which they trailed by two touchdowns in the second half. Two weeks ago, they were humiliated over in London in a 27-3 loss to the Seahawks (just 185 total yds). The Khalil Mack trade was obviously highly questionable in retrospect and now Gruden has chosen to deal top receiver Amari Cooper. But the Silver and Black are off a bye, which came at an opportune time I think. As bad as things have been, I don't think Oakland should be a home dog to the Colts. Take the points. 

Indianapolis is off a win, a rarity, and it was easily their most impressive showing to date. Of course, it helped playing Buffalo, who was starting its third QB of the year (Derek Anderson), just signed off the street. Going inside the numbers reveals the Colts may not have been as dominant as you think. They only had a +73 edge in total yards, enough to justify a win, but certainly not indicative of the final margin of victory. The key was being +5 in turnovers, which is a margin that will almost always guarantee victory. The Colts' often leaky defense still permitted 5.5 yards per play. Of course, they entered the game ranked 30th in total defense.

As bleak as things may look in Oakland right now (no Marshawn Lynch!), things can't get any worse. Indianapolis being a road favorite seems like a case of putting the "cart before the horse" as it's a role they haven't found themselves but one time since 2015. My numbers still indicate the Raiders should be favored here. One player that could still make a difference is TE Jared Cook. The Colts defense is giving up 8.4 yards per attempt to tight ends this year. This is one of those times you just have to "hold your nose" and take advantage of the public's poor perception of the Raiders right now. The numbers say we're getting a good value. 8* Oakland

10* Seattle (1:00 ET): I see the better team getting points in this one AND the Seahawks are off a bye. Sounds like a good play to me. Early on in the season, it appeared as if Seattle could be headed toward a rebuilding year as they started out w/ road losses to Denver and Chicago. But both of those were one-score games and ever since, they've won three of four w/ the only loss coming by two points to the undefeated Rams. Interestingly enough, it's been a somewhat similar story for the Lions, who also opened 0-2, including that embarrassing performance on MNF against the Jets. But they too have won three of four, not to mention covered five straight. They had the benefit of the bye last week, but this week the tables will be turned. Take the points.

The last time we saw Seattle, they turned in their most impressive performance of the year, blowing out Oakland over in London by a score of 27-3. It was a total blowout from start to finish w/ the defense holding the Raiders to 185 total yards. So much for this group taking a step back in the post Legion of Boom era. In each win, they've allowed 17 pts or fewer. Now, off the bye, LB K.J. Wright is set to make a season debut. On the offensive side of the ball, so too is tight end Ed Dickson, who will be a nice target for Russell Wilson. But the real key to this game probably resides at the line of scrimmage. Whichever team runs the ball better is probably going to win. Obviously, you've figured out by now that I think that's going to be Seattle. 

Detroit's defense is simply not very good, against the run or the pass. They are allowing 5.7 yards per carry, which should mean a big day for the Seahawks RB group of Chris Carson, Mike Davis and Rashaad Penny. As for the passing game, the Lions were shredded three weeks ago by Aaron Rodgers. That was actually a very lucky win as the Packers outgained them 521-264, but were -3 in turnovers. When coming off back to back wins, the Lions are just 5-5 SU and 3-6-1 ATS the L3 seasons. I look for their SU - and ATS - win streaks to come to an end here. 10* Seattle

10* Pittsburgh (1:00 ET): The Browns have not fared well against the Steelers returning to the league back in 1999, which honestly is par for the course for this franchise's miserable second existence. Just six times they've beaten their rival and two of those wins came in the 1999 and 2000 seasons. So that means they are 4-31-1 their L36 meetings. Note the "1" at the end of that record. These teams tied back in Week 1 and I was on Cleveland, plus the points, which wound up being a relatively easy cover all things considered. But look at the value we're getting on the rested Steelers for this rematch. Whereas they were four-point favorites in Cleveland (and that line opened much higher), now they're only laying a little more than a touchdown at home.

If Cleveland couldn't beat Pittsburgh at home back in Week 1, then I'm not sure when they'll beat them. Weather was terrible and the Browns were +5 in turnover margin in that 21-21 tie. If you can't win at home w/ a +5 TO margin, there's something seriously wrong. According to a widely circulated tweet after that game, "Since the Browns returned to the NFL, teams with a turnover margin of +5 or better in a game are 132-4-1. The Browns are responsible for two of those losses and the tie." The Browns should be thankful that they were +5 in TO's in that game, however, as they were outgained 472-327. It's very unlikely that they will benefit from such a TO margin again this week. It might rain again, but it'll take more than Mother Nature to stop the Steelers this time. 

Browns' fans will want to point to the fact that #1 overall DC Baker Mayfield was not yet the starting QB back in Week 1 (Tyrod Taylor). Again, Mayfield's presence alone is not enough to change the result. In fact, since leading his team to a win over the Jets in Week 3, I feel that Mayfield's play has gotten progressively WORSE. Something to keep in mind here is that rookie QB's are just 4-20 SU vs. the Steelers since 2004 and the Browns have not won at Heinz Field since '03. The Steelers are coming off a bye and ready to roll. Meanwhile, the Browns defense just played a season-high 95 snaps in last week's OT loss at Tampa Bay, which was already their FOURTH OT game of the season. 10* Pittsburgh

8* Baltimore (1:00 ET): Many might be, but I am not surprised that the Ravens come in as a slight favorite here in Carolina. My numbers agree as despite the Panthers winning 16 of their last 23 games, they still grade out as a fairly average team. Last year, they were an extremely fortunate 7-2 SU in one-score games. They were 11-5 SU overall, but only outscored opponents by a meager 36 points, which is more indicative of a 9-win team. This year, the team is 4-2, but only +11 in point differential. They have two wins by four points or less and their only game decided by more than eight points was a win over Cincinnati where they finished +4 in turnovers. The Panthers have consistently proven to be more "lucky" than "good" and that was again the case last week as they made a stunning comeback (trailed 17-0 in 4Q) to beat the Super Bowl Champion Eagles on the road. 

Baltimore is 4-3 SU, but has only played one bad game all year, that being a Thursday night road game in Cincinnati. Last week was a brutal 1-pt home loss to New Orleans when usually sure-footed kicker Justin Tucker missed the potential game-tying XP. They also allowed 17 fourth quarter points last week to the Saints, highly irregular for them. I've said it before, but in a league where offense rules, the Ravens have attempted to be the exception to the rule. They've allowed 14 pts or less in five of seven games, the exceptions being the Thurs night game and last week vs. the high-powered Saints. This defense is #1 in the league in both scoring and yards allowed as well as sacks. 

I like the Ravens' chances of bouncing back from last week's tough defeat as they are a perfect 5-0 ATS off their previous five losses. Their previous loss was in overtime at Cleveland, a game their defense only allowed 12 points. They bounced back from that w/ a 21-0 shutout over the Titans. While the running the ball may be difficult against Carolina, expect QB Joe Flacco to find plenty of success through the air as the Panthers have already allowed 13 completions of 20+ yards, third most in the league. On the flip side, Carolina's run-heavy offense figures to have a lack of success against this Ravens' defense and that will be a problem. The Panthers are actually being outgained this year on a per play basis while Baltimore is +0.6, not to mention +106.4 YPG. 8* Baltimore

8* Arizona (10:30 ET): Oregon has played a pretty tough slate of Pac 12 opponents thus far and I can see them overlooking this game "after dark." We all recall the Ducks letting one slip away vs. Stanford last month, a game they pretty clearly should have won. But then they got a little lucky the next two games. Sure, winning at Cal 42-24 looks pretty convincing. But that had as much to do w/ being +5 in turnover margin as anything. Then came the big upset over Washington, 30-27 in Eugene. That game saw the Ducks outgained despite winning in overtime. Last week, "Lady Luck" caught up w/ them in what was a terrible spot up at Washington State. With ESPN in Pullman for the very 1st time, Oregon found themselves down 27-0 at the half. Playing a second straight road game does the Ducks no favors here and I'll take the points w/ Arizona. 

Year one of the Kevin Sumlin era in Tucson got off to quite the rocky start. Back to back losses to BYU and Houston opened the season, but ever since the Wildcats are a respectable 3-3 SU w/ two of those losses coming by four points or less. In fact, the team has three losses by five pts or less already this year. So save for Houston and Utah, both of which were road games, Sumlin's team has been competitive this year. I expect that to be the case again this week as they're not getting nearly enough respect as a home dog Saturday night. The big question mark will be QB as Khalil Tate is banged up and may not start. But Rhett Rodriguez (yes, the son of RichRod) seemed more than serviceable last week vs. UCLA as the offense gained 520 total yards. 

A real key to this game is who can win at the line of scrimmage. Arizona averages almost 200 yards rushing per game, but the Oregon defense is only giving up 3.23 yards per carry, which is top 20 in the country. Last year's meeting in Eugene did not go well for the Wildcats, but consider it was late in the season and they were playing for a lame duck HC (RichRod!). So the fact they lost by 20 doesn't really affect my handicapping of this game, one way or another. Arizona doesn't often get this many points here in Tucson and Oregon is just 3-10 SU and 3-9-1 ATS in road games the L3 seasons. As a road favorite, they are just 2-4 ATS w/ four outright defeats. 8* Arizona

8* Fresno State (10:30 ET): I believe Hawaii is a team whose unexpected early season success has begun to work against it. This was a 3-win team LY that was not projected to do well in 2018. Nevertheless, figuring there had to be "some" improvement, I took them plus a big number (+17) in the season opener at Colorado State. They shockingly won that game outright, 43-34. Little did we know at the time just how bad Colorado State would turn out to be. Even more shocking is that Hawaii would go on to win six of its first seven games overall, doubling last season's win total by the first weekend of October. Almost all of those wins came against really bad teams though and they also were fortunate to get Navy at home. Over the last two weeks, a bit of reality has set in w/ the Warriors dropping B2B games to BYU and Nevada by a combined 44 points. 

Fresno State may be one of the most underrated teams in the country. HC Jeff Tedford did one of the best jobs in America last season taking a team that had gone 1-11 SU the previous year and taking them to a 10-4 SU record w/ an appearance in the Mountain West Championship Game. Anyone expecting a dropoff in year 2 under Tedford seems to have been mistaken as the Bulldogs are now 6-1 SU themselves with every win coming in blowout fashion. They are outscoring opponents by more than 25 PPG and are also 6-1 ATS. That puts them at 16-3-2 ATS overall under Tedford, which has to be the best ATS record in the country over the last two years. The last three weeks have seen them outscore Nevada, Wyoming and New Mexico by a combined score of 86-13! 

While FSU is blowing everyone out (save for an early season loss at Minnesota), Hawaii's point differential is only +2.0 PPG w/ a very minor edge in yardage as well. So you can see why they're such a huge dog this week. I played against them late last Saturday when they were upset at home by Nevada, a team FSU beat 21-3 on the road. Hawaii is far less dangerous off the Island as you probably know. When I played against them earlier in the year at San Jose State (my *10* Game of the Month for September), I noted that they were only 6-32 SU in road games dating back to 2012. Well, they won that game, but never came close to covering as it was a 5OT affair. The Warriors are now 7-33 SU their L40 road games after getting blown out at BYU two weeks ago. This one has blowout written all over it as well. 8* Fresno State 

10* Stanford (7:00 ET): Washington State remains the nation's lone remaining unbeaten team against the spread. They are 7-0 ATS and coming off their biggest win of the year, 34-20 over Oregon LW in Pullman. But in many ways, that was the most ideal setup for Wazzu. They were off a bye and had the added emotion of ESPN's College GameDay coming to their campus for the very first time. This week shapes up as a pretty clear letdown spot to me as it will be their toughest road game to date. I know Stanford has been somewhat of a disappointment thus far and was pretty fortunate to beat Arizona State last week. But even if they don't have RB Bryce Love at 100%, they've had two extra days to prepare for this game and it's a short number to lay at home. 

Stanford was outgained last week in Tempe, 437-358, but was +3 in turnovers. One of those three TO's turned the game and it came at the end of the first half w/ the game tied 3-3. Arizona State was driving, but attempted a trick play that was intercepted. Stanford drove down to kick a FG and never trailed again. In fact, they were up 20-6 heading into the 4th quarter. This despite Love, clearly bothered an injured ankle, gaining only 21 yards on 11 carries. He didn't even play in the second half. Love being healthy would be a nice added bonus this week, but not a prerequisite to victory. Even w/ his worst game of the season LY coming against the Cougars, the Cardinal still only lost by three up in Pullman. They actually have double revenge coming into this game after winning the eight previous matchups.

While this will be Washington State's fourth road game of the season, they lost one to USC and the other two were against Wyoming and Oregon State, two bad teams. I concede that the defense has gotten a lot better under Mike Leach, something I never thought I would say, but they did give up 37 to Oregon State and 39 to USC. The numbers say Stanford's defense is pretty susceptible to the pass, but at home they are giving up just 15.7 PPG and they've allowed only seven passing touchdowns all season. If you ask me, Wazzu is due to not cover a game and coming off one of the most emotional victories in program history seems like an opportune time for that to happen. 10* Stanford

10* Houston (3:30 ET): This isn't the first time I've targeted South Florida and even if they were to lose here, it may not be the last. Easily the weakest of the six remaining unbeatens in College Football, USF is living on "borrowed time." Let's start w/ the fact they have trailed at the end of the first quarter in five of their seven games so far. They trailed in the fourth quarter against both Illinois and Tulsa - two teams w/ a combined 4-10 SU record - by two scores each. Georgia Tech and East Carolina both outgained the Bulls by 150+ yards. USF was able to beat Ga Tech w/ two kick returns for touchdowns. They were somehow able to beat East Carolina despite a 24-9 first down deficit. Then came last week's "blah" 38-30 win over UConn, who was a 33-pt underdog. 

Believe it or not, but this will be just the second time USF has been an underdog this season. (The other was vs. Ga Tech). It will be the first time they've had to face an opponent w/ a winning record! I've noted this previously, but it's a borderline joke that USF is even ranked in the top 25. For the sake of reference, I don't even have them in my top 80! To put things in further perspective, this is the first time EVER that an unbeaten team that's 7-0 SU or better is more than a field goal underdog to an unranked opponent. Furthermore, Houston has had USF's number the last couple years, including a 28-24 win in Tampa LY as 10-pt dogs. USF came into that game ranked (#17) and 7-0 SU as well and you saw what happened. This year's team is nowhere near as strong.

Houston likely won't have DL Ed Oliver, a top NFL prospect, for this game. But they will have QB D'Eriq King, who has a 23-3 TD-INT ratio. Last week, King directed an offense that gained 570 yards and scored 49 points despite just 17:27 TOP in a win over Navy, in Annapolis. Ironically, King reminds many of USF's former QB, Quinton Flowers. Unfortunately for the Bulls, Flowers' replacement (Blake Barnett) has throw just 10 TD passes and has seven interceptions. Note Houston is outscoring teams by 32.7 PPG here at home this season. They've lost just once, at Texas Tech, and have scored 41 or more points in every game. USF's unbeaten run comes to an emphatic end here. 10* Houston

8* Texas Tech (12:00 ET): I love the Red Raiders as an underdog in this spot as the line doesn't add up. Yes, Iowa State is at home and off a bye. And I had the Cyclones in their 30-14 upset over WVU two weeks ago, which was even more lopsided than the final score indicates. ISU has actually pulled B2B upsets as the week before WVU, they went to Stillwater and upset Oklahoma State 48-42 as 10-pt underdogs. I'm not surprised that the Cyclones are only 1-3 SU entering this game as I had them regressing before the season even started after they pulled four outright upsets LY en route to an 8-5 SU record. To me, this is a pick 'em type game and it should be mentioned the Red Raiders beat the same TCU team that beat ISU. They also beat another team off a bye last week, albeit it was Kansas. 

There are multiple factors that have me on the dog here. One is that for the 1st time in the history of the rivalry, Iowa State has beaten Texas Tech two years in row. Now, neither game was close and the last meeting here in Ames (2016) saw the Red Raiders handed their worst defeat in five years, 66-10 (and they were four-point favorites in that game!). Last year in Lubbock, ISU came in and pulled another upset, this time winning 31-13 as seven-point road dogs. I think it's important to mention here that the Cyclones are not often favored in conference play. The last time they were favored against someone other than Baylor or Kansas was 2014 against ... Texas Tech. They lost that game outright here at home. 

There is no denying that Iowa State has been a much better team since the change to Brock Purdy at QB. I noted as such in my analysis two weeks ago for the game vs. WVU. But last week saw Alan Bowman return to the field as Texas Tech's QB and the result was a 400+ yard passing day in a 48-16 blowout. I was very impressed w/ the way the Red Raiders were able to upset TCU w/o Bowman and a big reason for they did was a defense that is MUCH better than past years. In three Big 12 wins, the defense (returned 10 starters from LY) has allowed 17, 14 and 16 points. It's not too often we've been able to say this through the years, but do not be surprised if it is the Red Raiders' DEFENSE that leads them to pulling the upset this week. 8* Texas Tech

10* Minnesota (8:00 ET): Despite both being long-time members of the Big 10, Indiana and Minnesota don't play each other very regularly. In fact, Friday will mark just the second meeting since 2008! The last one came back in '13 and saw the Golden Gophers go to Bloomington and pull off a 42-39 upset of the Hoosiers, as 7.5-pt underdogs. That of course means very little for handicapping this year's installment. What we do know though is that conference play has not treated either of these teams well in 2018. They've gone a combined 1-7 straight up w/ the only win being IU's over Rutgers and even that was only by a touchdown. Coming off close loss to a top ranked team (like Indiana is) can be a worse situation than is coming off a blowout loss to a bad team (like Minnesota is). I like the home dog in this one.

Minnesota is all too familiar w/ the situation their opponent is in this week. Two weeks ago, the Gophers had given it their all in a home loss to Ohio State that was a lot closer than the 30-14 final score indicates. So going on the road to face a winless Nebraska team should have been a nice bounce back spot. But it wasn't. They were instead humiliated in a 53-28 defeat w/ the defense giving up over 600 yards. PJ Fleck's defense is really struggling right now having allowed over 1100 yards the last two weeks. But I'm predicting this to be a bounce back spot at home. They opened this season by going 3-0 at home, allowing just 9 PPG. That was before a 48-31 loss to Iowa here at TCF Bank Stadium. I think Fleck and the coaching staff are going to treat this as the most important game of the season.

So here we find Indiana off a tough 33-28 home loss to Penn State where they had a 554-417 edge in total yardage. Note they lost one of their two QB's in that game, freshman Michael Penix, to a season-ending ACL injury. So it will have to be Peyton Ramsey exclusively the rest of the way. Minnesota also has a potential injury at QB w/ Zack Annexstad. But the difference is they have an advantage in the sense that the Indiana defense doesn't know who to prepare for, Annexstad or redshirt freshman Tanner Morgan, who completed 11 of 16 attempts last week for 214 yards in the second half. I don't think Indiana deserves to be a road favorite, a role they are just 2-5 ATS in the L3 seasons. Minnesota is 5-2 SU/ATS the L7 games w/ a line of three points or less. 10* Minnesota

8* Virginia Tech (7:30 ET): This is almost always an important game in the ACC Coastal. This year will be no different as Virginia Tech comes in as the only team in the division still w/o a loss. Georgia Tech, on the other hand, is quickly bordering on being irrelevant. They're 1-3 SU in the ACC after losing two weeks ago at home to Duke, a game where I played against them. You'd think that record would have the Yellow Jackets as the more motivated side this week, but that may very well not be the case considering the Hokies are at home and will be looking to exact a case of double revenge (lost L2 yrs to Ga Tech). The Yellow Jackets have actually won each of their last two trips into Blacksburg, as a 7 and 14-pt underdog no less, but this is a Thursday night game at Lane Stadium. Rumors about HC Paul Johnson's future in Atlanta does his team no favors here. 

Virginia Tech's bye probably came at a good time. They'd lost here at home to Notre Dame three weeks ago and were probably lucky to win at North Carolina in their most recent game. They were outgained 522-375 in Chapel Hill, yet were still able to rally from a 13-pt second half deficit to win 22-19. The game-winning TD came w/ just 19 seconds left. Of course, the Hokies may never be able to live down their loss at Old Dominion earlier in the season, but I will point out they handily beat the same Duke team that beat Ga Tech, 31-14 on the road, and were basically dead even in total yardage w/ Notre Dame. Remember the Hokies are playing w/o QB Josh Jackson, so the bye was also handy in that regard as it allowed for backup Ryan Willis to get more practice time. 

Another reason the bye is handy is that it gives the Hokies' defense extra time to prepare for Georgia Tech's vaunted triple option. When I played on Duke against Georgia Tech two weeks ago, I noted that the Blue Devils (who were also off bye) had a decided edge. Sure enough, they held the Yellow Jackets to only 3.75 yards per rush. I think we can all agree that the best move Va Tech HC Justin Fuente ever did was to retain the longtime defensive coordinator of his predecessor, Frank Beamer. That would be Bud Foster, who has presided over a number of top defenses during his time in Blacksburg. This particular Hokies' defense has held four of its six opponents under 20 pts. Georgia Tech has just one win over a Power 5 team this year. It was Louisville, who has pretty much quit on the season, on a short week. Lay the short number. 8* Virginia Tech 

10* Atlanta (8:15 ET): I really don't understand the "love" that the Giants are getting here. The G-Men do benefit from having not played since last Thursday. But they'll need more than that (and more points from the oddsmakers) for Eli Manning and his pop-gun arm to compete w/ the high-flying Falcons in this building. Atlanta has been a disappointment in its own right this year, but they did win big for me last Sunday, beating Tampa Bay 34-29 as three-point chalk (late FG got the cover!). They have scored 31 or more points in every home game thus far, so again, I don't see how a Giants team that has scored 30 or more only ONCE in the L3 seasons is going to be able to keep pace. Despite having been a 'dog in every game this year, the Giants are only 2-4 ATS. The Falcons are 5-2 SU and ATS when laying between 3.5 & 7 pts the L3 seasons. The Giants are 1-8 SU and 3-6 ATS as a dog in that same range during the same time frame. 

When considering why the Falcons (2-4 SU) have overachieved to this point, one must consider the multitude of injuries they have been hit with, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. But DT Grady Jarrett is back this week and stopping the Giants' anemic offense (19.5 PPG overall) shouldn't prove difficult. Also, two receivers - Mohammed Sanu and Calvin Ridley - have both been cleared to play tonight. With a full compliment of receivers, look for Falcons QB Matt Ryan to have a big night. The L3 weeks have seen the Giants surrender 33, 33 and 34 points. Again, assuming Atlanta is able to follow suit and hang 30+ points, I just don't see how the Giants can keep pace. 

Saquon Barkley was chosen #2 overall in the Draft by the Giants and there's been a lot of debate about that pick. There is no denying Barkley is going to be a great player in this league. But the problem is Eli Manning is still directing this offense, so even though it's quite loaded at RB/WR, it really doesn't matter. The Giants have topped 18 points in only two games this season. Manning, who has thrown as many INT's as he has touchdown passes the last three games, has been sacked 20 times already this season. Also, when considering Atlanta's deficiencies when it comes to pass rushing, note the Giants are one of only three teams w/ fewer sacks. Look for the Falcons to simply outscore the Giants here. 10* Atlanta

8* Chicago (1:00 ET): Last week proved it might be a bit premature to start printing those Bears' playoff tickets as they suffered an upset loss at the hands of a Dolphins team sans its starting QB. Sure, Chicago was lucky to even have a chance in OT after Miami's Kenyon Drake fumbled at the goal line. But they did lead the game by double digits in the fourth quarter. The news that Miami would be starting Brock Osweiler in place of the injured Ryan Tannehill came late and I wished I could have got down on the 'Fins as a home dog as the Bears were clearly being overvalued at 3-1 SU and coming off a bye. But this week, they're back in a more customary underdog role. Granted, they have to face the Patriots, but I believe they'll be up to the challenge. 

New England picked up a big win last Sunday night, beating Kansas City 43-40 in an absolute thriller. Once again, reports of Bill Belichick's demise turned out to be greatly exaggerated as since that 1-2 start, the Pats have won three straight while averaging almost 40 points per game. However, key is that all three games were played in Foxboro. This one comes on the road against a team that - unlike the Chiefs - can actually play defense. Remember that the Patriots are 0-2 on the road this year, losing by double digits to both Jacksonville and Detroit. Those were easily their two lowest scoring games of the year as well. 

Obviously, there's a big worry here for the Bears w/ Khalil Mack's ankle limiting him in practice. They'll certainly need him in order to pull any potential upset this week. But Chicago has done just fine as a home dog - even preceding Mack - going 8-2-1 ATS their L11 times in the role w/ five outright wins. I still believe in this team as one that can "win ugly" and get to the playoffs. Winning this week would be a giant step in the right direction. One positive from last week is that QB Mitchell Trubisky averaged 10.2 yards per pass attempt while the running game gained 5.3 yards per carry and that was against a pretty good Dolphins defense. At home, I believe the Bears are capable of pulling the upset. 8* Chicago

10* Miami (1:00 ET): The Dolphins may seem to be "living dangerously," but fact is they're getting the job done. They're now 4-2 following last week's upset of the Bears. Truthfully, with the exception of that bad 38-7 loss to the Patriots, this team has played quite well this season. They didn't even need QB Ryan Tannehill to beat the Bears, though they did need overtime. But led by Brock Osweiler, they outgained Chicago 541-467 and could have put the game away earlier if not for a Kenyon Drake fumble at the goal line. They'll continue to be w/o Tannehill for the forseeable furture, but as we saw last week, Tannehill's value to the pointspread is minimal at best. That's why I'm so surprised to see the Dolphins come in as underdogs at home to the Lions this week.

Detroit is off a bye. Before that, they pulled their own upset, beating Green Bay 31-23. But that game took place at Ford Field and saw the Lions get significantly outgained by the Packers, 521-264. It's very rare that a NFL team wins when getting outgained on a 2:1 basis. The Lions did it thanks to a +3 turnover margin and GB kicker Mason Crosby missing four of five field goal attempts. The Lions are now 4-0 ATS since that MNF disaster vs. the Jets to open the season, including a win over New England, but they've also yet to win a road game. They were beaten at both San Francisco (yikes) and Dallas. Miami is 3-0 SU and ATS at home this year. 

As a home underdog, the Dolphins are on a 7-3-1 ATS run after last week and all seven covers have seen them take the game straight up! Meanwhile, as you might expect, Detroit isn't a road favorite too often. They're just 7-13-1 ATS in the role since 2010 w/ 10 outright losses. I definitely wouldn't want to lay points w/ Matt Patricia's team on the road. The Dolphins should be able to run the ball effectively in this game given that the Lions rank 30th defensively at stopping the run and aren't much better against the pass. Miami WR Albert Wilson is a nightmare to cover, just ask the Bears, who saw him make six catches for 155 yards, two of those going for touchdowns. If the Fins can gain 500+ total yards against a very good Bears defense, then they should have their way here as well. Miami's defense remains underrated. 10* Miami

8* Buffalo (1:00 ET): I've played the Bills before and not only "lived to tell the story," but cashed them as an outright winner over the Titans back in Week 5. So even as they are forced to turn to their third starting QB of the year already (Allen hurt, Peterman terrible), I'm not afraid to take them if I think the situation is right. Anderson won't represent any kind of significant downgrade from either Allen or Peterman, in fact, it might actually be an upgrade even though he just signed w/ the team! This play reminds me a lot of that Bills-Titans matchup in that just like Tennessee, Indianapolis has something in common w/ Buffalo: they've yet to be favored a single time in '18. The Colts are not a team I would want to lay points with, so grab the underdog in this one. 

Since that disastrous Week 1 showing against the Ravens (who have the league's top defense, by the way), the Bills have shown a reasonable level of competency. They've won twice, beating Minnesota and Tennessee, and last week should have finished off the Texans were it not for Peterman rearing his ugly head. The Bills led 13-10 w/ less than two minutes to go in regulation, but then gave up the game-tying field goal w/ 1:34 remaining. No problem though, there's always overtime, right? Well, not in this case. Peterman, only playing because rookie Josh Allen was hurt, threw an atrocious "pick-six" to lose the game on the very next drive. Still though, the Bills easily covered as 10-point road underdogs. I think they can do the same here, thanks to a defense that is 10th in total yards. The Bills have allowed 22 pts or fewer in four straight games. 

The Colts are a bad team, off to their worst start since the dreaded 2011 season that was the bridge between Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck. They've lost four in a row and already given up 34 or more points four times this season, including each of the last three weeks. So again, this is not a team I'd want to be laying points with, especially this many. While Luck has been throwing the ball a lot this year, he's been very inefficient doing so, ranking 29th in yards per attempt. He does get WR T.Y. Hilton back this week, but the return of one receiver alone cannot cure all that ails this team. This is the first time the Colts have been favored by seven points or more since 2014. Take the points. 8* Buffalo

10* Tennessee (9:30 AM ET): "Wanna Get Away?" is a tagline for a popular airline company and right about now the Titans would gladly take them up on the offer. The team is off B2B "stinkers" as they lost outright to Buffalo and then were humbled by Baltimore at home. The offense has scored a grand total of 12 points in those two losses and against the Ravens, QB Marcus Mariota was sacked more times (11) than he had completed passes (10). I was highly skeptical of the Titans' 3-1 start, but now that they've lost the two games in a row, I see some value on them as they head across the pond to play the Chargers in London. They'll be going up against a much worse defense than what they've seen so far this season. Take the points in this one. 

The Chargers have handled their business each of the L3 weeks, going 3-0. But they've beaten three bottom-feeders (i.e. last place teams) in San Francisco, Cleveland and Oakland. In fact, it's tough to know exactly where Philip Rivers and company are really at right now as their only other win came against another terrible team (Buffalo), but their two losses came against two of the best teams, the Rams and Chiefs. They've covered the spread in three of their four wins (only failed vs. SF) and did not cover in either loss. My guess is that the pointspread comes into play Saturday morning in Wembley Stadium. The early start time isn't exactly favorable to the West Coast team as kickoff will be at 6:30 AM Pacific time. They are staying in Cleveland this week to practice. 

The Chargers' 38-14 win over the Browns last week was a little misleading in that they got up big early despite not possessing the ball much. They had no problem moving the ball when they had it (449 total yards), but the edge in total yards really didn't become substantial until the end of the game when they were simply running it down the Browns' throats. Consider that Tennessee is 3-3 SU despite being favored only once (at Buffalo) and they have wins over Jacksonville and Philadelphia. Their offense cannot possibly be worse than it was against Baltimore, who probably has the best defense in the league. Off B2B losses, the Titans have gone a perfect 4-0 ATS the L2 years. The Chargers have not been a good opponent for them through the years (1-9 SU, 0-9-1 ATS L10 meetings), but they'll at least cover the spread here. 10* Tennessee 

8* Nevada (12:00 AM ET): We're going really late night for this LAST CHANCE POWER-DRIVE as went head out to the Island. Both these teams went just 3-9 SU last season and have already matched or exceeded that win total here in '18. Nevada was the one supposed to improve, but ironically they're only 3-4 SU while Hawaii is a rather stunning 6-2 SU. The Warriors immediately turned heads in their first game of the season when they upset Colorado State, 43-34, as 17-pt road underdogs. Even though I took the points w/ them in that game, I was stunned at the ease in which they won outright. (Of course, we also didn't know how bad Colorado St was yet). More upsets have followed, but this week the Warriors are favored for the very first time against a team that isn't either from the FCS or in my bottom 10 in of my FBS rankings. I'll take the points.

Nevada is off B2B home losses, but they had to play the two teams that were in LY's Mt. West Championship Game, Boise State and Fresno State. They were double digit dogs to both, so you can't really fault them for losing. In fact, last week saw them go down to the wire against Boise State in an eventual 31-27 loss. The Wolf Pack have only been favored twice all year, so I'm not really faulting them for a 3-4 SU record to this point. Hawaii is a tough place to play if you're the visitor, but Nevada won't be intimidated as they've already played at Vanderbilt, Toledo and Air Force. They turned in a pretty remarkable effort in upsetting the AFA, holding them to just 250 total yards, including just 154 rushing on 51 carries.

Nevada has to win three of its last five games to become bowl eligible. They'll be favored to win two and will be dogs in two others, so this probably represents the "swing game." The road team has actually been favored in the last two Nevada-Hawaii matchups, only to lose outright both times. Last season, the Wolf Pack won 35-21 as three-point dogs in Reno. They rolled up 566 total yds of offense in that game, led by QB Ty Gangi, who missed the Fresno State game but is now back and ready to produce. Hawaii's defense isn't much better than it was last year as they've already given up 40+ pts three times including 49 last week to BYU, not to mention nearly 500 total yards. I look for a minor "upset" late Saturday night. 8* Nevada

8* Connecticut (7:00 ET): I know. I know. This is really going to test my reputation as an "underdog bettor." UConn has not been good by any stretch of the imagination. This is a bottom five team in the country, in fact, as the Huskies are 1-5 SU w/ the lone win coming in a game against a FCS school (Rhode Island) where they still gave up 550 total yards. In the five games vs. FBS foes, they have been outscored by 39, 55, 30, 42 and 41 points. That's an average loss of 41.4 PPG! This week finds them playing a team that they've lost to six straight times and is still unbeaten this season. Certainly, this one gets out of hand in a hurry, right? Not so fast! I'm actually taking the points! 

Even after last Saturday's myriad of upsets, there are still eight teams without a loss in College Football. Surprising is that three of them hail from the American Conference, including - pretty clearly - the weakest one, that being USF. The Bulls are UConn's opponent this week and pretty fortunate to still be unbeaten after LW's near failure at Tulsa. I faded USF in that one, calling them the weakest of the unbeatens then too, and they trailed for most of the game. Despite ending up w/ a 487-299 edge in total yardage, the Bulls trailed by two touchdowns entering the fourth quarter. They were still down eight w/ just over two minutes to go, but a TD (missed 2-pt try) and field goal in the closing seconds got them the one-point win they needed to remain unbeaten. 

Last week wasn't the first time it looked like USF might lose this season. Both East Carolina and Georgia Tech outgained them by more than 150 yards. Wins over ECU and Illinois came by a total of just 13 points. Four of the Bulls' six wins this year have been by 11 pts or less and the 49-38 win over Ga Tech actually saw them down 10 in the 4Q. I understand that the pollsters are gonna have this team ranked because of the "0" in the loss column, but not only is USF not counted among my Top 25, they barely crack my top 70! I know the home team has typically dominated this conference rivalry (two very different climates!), but this is a huge number to lay when USF only won 37-20 LY in Storrs as 23-pt chalk. UConn is off a bye here and USF has trailed at the end of the 1st quarter in four of its six games. One of the two they did not was a 7-0 lead over FCS Elon. Hold your nose and take the points! 8* Connecticut

10* Clemson (3:30 ET): Both of these teams enter in this Week 8 ACC showdown off a bye. Both are also undefeated. However, that's where the similarities end. I've been pretty clear in the past that "not all undefeated records are created equal" and that is most definitely the case here. Clemson, having participated in the College Football Playoff each of the last three years (and winning it all two years ago, is a top three team in the country right now. NC State is only ranked because of the "0" in the loss column as "that's what the pollsters do." I don't even have the Wolfpack ranked in my top 40! Most will see this line as inflated, but I don't think it's nearly high enough. I expect Clemson to absolutely roll Saturday afternoon. Lay the points. 

Something else to consider is that Clemson will absolutely be taking NC State seriously. That's because they've failed to cover the spread against them each of the last two years. In 2016, they needed OT to win 24-17 as 19-pt home favorites. Last year, they trailed at the half in Raleigh (despite a special teams TD) and needed an interception in the end zone on the final play to seal a 38-31 victory. This year, the Wolfpack won't be sneaking up on the Tigers. Dabo Swinney's team seemingly hit its stride right before the bye week as they obliterated Wake Forest 63-3 on the road. Clemson is 16-1 SU hosting ACC teams the past five seasons w/ the only loss coming by a single point. I expect a highly motivated favorite Saturday afternoon in Death Valley. 

NC State is a team I actually though would take a step BACK in '18, so I'm surprised to see that they're still undefeated. Then again, they have been favored in all five games so far. A game where they would NOT have been favored (Week 3 vs. West Virginia) was cancelled due to Hurricane Florence. Not playing that game really hurts their preparation for this, their 1st real test of the season, in my estimation. The Wolfpack do have a NFL QB in Ryan Finley, but little else, and Finley is going to feel the heat all afternoon long from a Clemson defensive front filled w/ NFL caliber talent. Look for the Clemson defense to make NC State one-dimensional on offense and Finley can't come close to beating the Tigers by himself. 10* Clemson

8* Marshall (2:30 ET): Last year, Lane Kiffin's FAU Owls were the darlings of the College Football universe. They ended the year on a 10-game win streak and absolutely plowed through the Conference USA portion of the schedule, winning all eight games by an average of 22.1 PPG. They didn't even trail for a single minute in the last 5 1/2 games! However, under the weight of expectation, the 2018 edition has crumbled some. One of the big reasons why is their dropoff in play away from Boca Raton. The Owls are 0-3 SU/ATS away from home this year, including an outright loss to Middle Tennessee two weeks ago. The other two saw them completely unable to stop either Oklahoma or UCF, giving up over 100 points and 100 total yards.

With FAU struggling some, the door to the C-USA East title is a lot more wide open now than it was a season ago. Marshall figured to be one of the top challengers anyway and getting FAU in Huntington is a big advantage in getting to the division summit. The Thundering Herd's last win came against Old Dominion, who happens to also be the last team FAU played. The Owls are the ones coming off the bye here, but the Herd posted a slightly better margin of victory (22 pts) over ODU than FAU (19 pts) did. Marshall is a surprising 1-2 SU so far at home, so they'll be looking to make a statement here. Under HC Doc Holiday, the Thundering Herd have gone 37-15 straight up. We've already gone over FAU's struggles on the road this season. 

Neither team has been impressive against the pointspread thus far w/ Marshall 2-4 ATS and FAU just 1-5. That's a big change for Kiffin, whose team was one of the top teams in the country against the number last year. In addition to homefield advantage, another edge for Marshall lies on the defensive side of the football where they are giving up just 3.0 yards per carry compared to 4.7 for FAU. That difference is potentially huge when considering the two star running backs in this game, Tyler King for Marshall and Devin Singletary for FAU. Singletary had more hype coming into the year, but King is averaging 1.3 more yards per carry. In my estimation, the better team is getting points here and Marshall has revenge here for a five-point loss last year in Boca Raton where they were -4 in turnovers. 8* Marshall 

10* Toledo (12:00 ET): Before the start of the season, I think that few (if anyone!) woud have expected Buffalo to go into the Glass Bowl and pick up a win, let alone be FAVORED over Toledo. But here we are in October and HC Lance Leipold (who made the jump from D-III power Wisc-Whitewater) has this Bulls team playing awfully well. They're 6-1 and unbeaten in MAC play, holding wins over Eastern Michigan, Central Michigan and Akron. Not to mention, they've also gone on the road and beaten both Temple and Rutgers. It's looking like there's a very good chance that this UB team ends up w/ more wins than either the '08 or '13 editions (8 each) that represent the only two times the program has ever been to a bowl game. 

Toledo, who has been the team to beat in the MAC West the last few seasons, feels like a disappointment right now. The Rockets enter this game 3-3 and are off a disappointing 28-26 loss LW at Eastern Michigan, a team Buffalo beat by a TD (at home, though). That loss saw Toledo battle back from a 28-3 halftime deficit, only to have the potential game-tying two-point conversion denied in the final minute. The Rockets' other two losses were to Miami FL and at Fresno State, games where they came in as double digit underdogs. So while the 2018 season may feel like a disappointment thus far, last week was the only time that the Rockets lost in a situation where they were expected to win. I think that returning to the Glass Bowl is huge as they've scored 63 and 52 pts the L2x here. 

I just can't get over the fact Buffalo is now favored here. It's largely been public money that caused this number to "jump the fence" and that has me jumping in on the other side. Buffalo has never won here at the Glass Bowl where Toledo has lost only twice in three years under HC Jason Candle and one of the losses to Miami FL. Plus, the Bulls have hardly faced the strongest slate of opponents in compiling their 6-1 SU record. They do have the upset over Temple, but that was back in Week 2 when the Owls weren't playing nearly as well as they are now. And they were humbled by the best team they've faced, Army, 42-13. This will be UB's eight straight week playing w/o a bye. Toledo has not been a home dog to a MAC opponent since 2013 vs. a Northern Illinois team that was nationally ranked and had won 22 of its previous 23 games. 10* Toledo 

8* Arizona (8:20 ET): It's certainly not the most marquee Thursday night battle this week as two struggling teams, Denver and Arizona, meet out in the desert. The Broncos are 2-4, but have lost four straight, while the Cardinals are 1-5 SU and last in the league in most offensive categories. Despite their offensive deficiencies, I see some value on the home team here. Home teams usually have the edge in these Thursday night games (well, not the Giants last week) and I'm not sure Denver is a team that should be laying points on the road. The Broncos' two wins this year, both at home, were by a combined four points. Their two road games have seen them lose by a combined 31 points. Take the points here. 

Neither team has had a friendly schedule so far. Arizona lost at Minnesota last week, 27-17, and didn't look impressive at all in doing so. They have yet to gain even 300 total yards in a game this season, which is incredible in today's NFL. Last week's 269 was actually a season-high even though they'd won the previous week at San Francisco. I thought the Cardinals' defense did a decent job pressuring Vikings QB Kirk Cousins, but there were few, if any, other positives. I will say that w/ Josh Rosen as the QB, the team is going to be better offensively than they were w/ Sam Bradford. The Cards' last two home games saw them fight down to the wire, losing to Seattle and Chicago by only a combined five points. They went 0 for 12 on 3rd/4th down last week, which isn't likely to be repeated here. 

Denver fought valiently against the Rams on Sunday, but ultimately went down by a score of 23-20. They had a few games go down to the wire ATS w/ results varying, so last week was the first time the Broncos definitely covered for anybody. Under Vance Joseph, the team has gone 5-15-2 ATS, the worst such record in the league during that time. The biggest problem Joseph has faced is at QB as the franchise has gotten poor play out of the position ever since Peyton Manning retired. Truthfully, Manning wasn't very good his final season, so it's been three years of bad QB play here. Case Keenum isn't looking like the answer as he's tossed at least one INT in every game. The Denver offensive line is thin coming into this game w/ guard Ronald Leary out w/ an ACL. The defense has allowed an incredible 593 yards rushing the last two weeks and gave up over 500 total yds to the Jets in their last road game. 8* Arizona

8* Dallas (4:25 ET): Cowboys HC Jason Garrett was the opposite of aggressive in last week's OT loss to Houston and it cost his team the game. Now truthfully, the Cowboys should have felt fortunate to even force that game into OT as they were outgained 462-292 and there were two Texans drives that reached the goal line and ended up combining for only three points. But this Dallas team can play defense as is evident by the fact they are allowing just 19.2 points (5th) and 337.4 yards (8th) per game. They are also back in Jerry World where they're 2-0 this season, beating the Giants and Lions. The task is certainly tougher this week w/ the Jaguars coming to the Metroplex, but I believe America's Team is more than capable of pulling the outright upset. Take the points.

Jacksonville has been very "up and down" thus far w/ a win over New England, but also an ugly 9-6 loss to Tennessee. Last week saw them get badly outclassed in an AFC showdown w/ the Chiefs, losing 30-14. They did gain over 500 total yds of offense, but they also turned the ball over five times. Blake Bortles and company are actually off B2B 500+ yd efforts, but I wouldn't look for that streak to continue here as they are w/o RB Leonard Fournette against a quality defense. Remember that the Chiefs, as good as they are, have one of the worst defenses in the league right now. I still don't put a ton of trust in Bortles to carry his team to victory on the road. The Jags are just 3-6 SU and ATS the L3 seasons against the NFC as well and that includes a win over the sorry Giants back in Week 1. 

My one area of concern here is that Dallas won't be able to pass the ball at all. We knew it would be a struggle for them to effectively throw the ball coming into the year (worst WR corps in league?) and it has been as they rank 29th. Jacksonville is #1 against the pass, so look for plenty of Ezekiel Elliott in this matchup. The Jaguars have improved significantly against the run this year, but stopping Elliott will be a tough chore. The Jacksonville offense is also going to struggle to move the ball I think. They've topped 20 pts in only two of their five games to begin with and they haven't exactly faced the toughest slate of defenses. In a game that figures to feature little scoring, taking the points is the way to go. 8* Dallas 

10* Atlanta (1:00 ET): The Falcons have been one of the biggest disappointments so far as they're 1-4 and off an embarrassing 41-17 loss to the Steelers. The defense has been nothing short of abysmal the L3 weeks, giving up 43, 37 and 41 points. I hate to admit it now, but I had Atlanta winning the NFC South before the start of the season. Now, they'll be lucky to even finish .500. Despite that, the team hasn't actually played as poorly as it seems. Consider this stat. Since 1940, teams scoring 36+ pts at home w/ zero turnovers are 402-4 SU. Atlanta has accounted for two of those four losses THIS SEASON! Last week's game against the Steelers didn't see them outgained significantly and it was actually a 10-pt game into the 4th quarter. I don't see the Falcons losing at home again this week, so I'll lay the points.

Tampa Bay is off a bye this week, but has its own issues going on. I think that this team is still getting "residual credit" for its 2-0 start when they shockingly upset both the Saints and Eagles. Ryan Fitzpatrick led the way in those two wins, becoming the first QB in league HISTORY to throw for 400+ yards and 4 TD's in each of the first two games. But "Fitzmagic" quickly ran out of tricks and is no longer even the team's starter. The last two games saw him toss four interceptions and he was finally benched in an embarrassing 48-10 loss to Chicago two weeks ago (I was on the Bears!). There was actually some controversy heading into that game as Jameis Winston was eligible to play after being suspended the first three games. Fitzpatrick's poor play made the switch back to Winston an easy one for HC Dirk Koetter.

Again, I still believe the Bucs are getting too much credit for that 2-0 start. They have given up 78 points in the last two games and I believe the Falcons are going to score a ton in this game. Tampa Bay is second worst in yards per game allowed and even w/ the bye half of the league has still allowed fewer total yards! Offense has certainly NOT been the problem for Atlanta as they are averaging nearly 400 YPG and now have RB Devonta Freeman back in the fold. Something else contributing to unfounded optimism for the Bucs is Winston making his first start of the season off the bye. Yes, it was the ideal spot to make the change, but the Bucs simply aren't going to be a demonstrably better team w/ Winston in there as opposed to Fitzpatrick.  10* Atlanta 

10* Washington (1:00 ET): The Redskins turned in an absolutely dreadful performance Monday night in New Orleans, losing 43-19. Being that the loss is still so fresh in people's minds, I expect them to be a fairly unpopular choice this week vs. Carolina. But I love the spot for them to bounce back. If they're not motivated after being humiliated on national television, then I don't know what to think. It helps being at home. The last time the 'Skins played at home, I took them and they upset Green Bay 31-17 in what is probably their most impressive performance to date. The defense was shredded by Drew Brees and company Monday night, but had given up an average of just 14.7 PPG the first three weeks. On offense, QB Alex Smith is much better than he looked on MNF. 

Carolina is 3-1, but I'm not convinced this is a good team. Then again, I didn't think last year's edition was nearly as good as its 11-5 SU record due to being a very fortunate 7-2 in one-score games (best win percentage in the league). The Panthers pulled another rabbit out of their collective hat last week, beating the Giants 33-31 on a Graham Gano 63-yard field goal as time expired. Carolina was outgained in the contest, 432-350, and is actually being slightly outgained for the year. Not only on a yards per game basis, but on a yards per play basis as well. The defense is giving up a frightening 6.7 yards per play to this point, which is bottom five in the league. Note that they were +4 in turnovers vs. Cincinnati the week before the bye. All three Panthers victories have come at home.

Washington may be averaging 5.2 less PPG compared to Carolina, but the teams are roughly even when it comes down to yards gained. The Redskins have actually outgained the opposition this season (by about 38 YPG) and are close to the top 10 in yards per play allowed. My read is that this is one of those games where the better team isn't getting nearly enough credit and in this particular instance that team is Washington. It can sometimes be a dangerous line of thinking, but I simply don't see Carolina as a 4-1 team. I had them regressing pretty considerably here in 2018 and am not yet ready to come off that assertion. Great value here on the Redskins at home. 10* Washington

analysis soon

8* Iowa State (7:00 ET): There are still 11 unbeaten teams left in College Football. Some - like NC State and Colorado - are clear "pretenders" while you also have three teams (UCF, USF and Cincinnati) hailing from the American. Five of the 11 have clearly separated themselves as National Title contenders, those being Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, Clemson and Notre Dame. Then you have West Virginia, who feels like an island unto itself. The Mountaineers really haven't beaten anyone of note, save for Texas Tech a couple weeks ago in what was their only "true" road game to this point. This week looks to be WVU's toughest test to date as they play an Iowa State team fresh off a 48-42 upset of Oklahoma State in Stillwater. I'm taking the points w/ the home dog yet again.

This will actually be the third consecutive week I'm playing against West Virginia as I don't view them as a true national title contender. That's not the only reason I'm looking to fade them again, mind you. It's also the fact that they're unbeaten status pretty clearly has them overrated by the pollsters and the oddsmakers. They did get me two weeks ago in Lubbock, beating Texas Tech 42-34, but that was a pretty even game where the Mountaineers clearly benefited from not only a +3 turnover margin, but also the Red Raiders losing their QB due to injury. Last week, I got some revenge by taking a big number w/ Kansas. At no point in the game was WVU covering as they turned in over four times and won only 38-22 as a four touchdown choice.

Iowa State is only 2-3 SU, but they've played a pretty difficult schedule. Already they've taken on Iowa, Oklahoma, TCU and Oklahoma State. So their Big 12 schedule has been very much the reverse of WVU's in that it's frontloaded. (WVU plays its toughest games in November). Led by freshman QB Brock Purdy (making his 1st start!), the Cyclones put up season-highs in both yards and points LW vs. Oklahoma State. Purdy is a dual-threat and accounted for 402 total yds w/ 318 passing and 84 rushing and RB David Montgomery could be back for this game. Even if he's not, ISU is 9-2 ATS the L11 times it has been a dog w/ five outright upsets. This is a triple revenge spot as well following a four-point loss LY in Morgantown. Iowa State is a great value here. 8* Iowa State

8* Penn State (3:30 ET): I think most people look at this number and think about Mark Dantonio's 13-3 ATS record as an underdog of a TD or more in Big 10 play. But the fact is that Michigan State simply is not that good in 2018 while Penn State is rested off a bye and angry off a loss. Sparty lost last Saturday, in East Lansing, to Northwestern by a score of 29-19. That was a game they were favored to win by double digits. Truthfully, I haven't been impressed in any game w/ MSU this year, save for a 35-21 win at Indiana, but even then they turned the ball over four times. The season started w/ them barely escaping at home against Utah State. The following week, I played against them out in Tempe when they lost outright to Arizona State. They also only beat a bad Central Michigan team by 11. 

Not only does Michigan State look to be outclassed here, but Penn State is rested and playing w/ revenge. Nevermind the fact that they should also be highly motivated from letting one slip away against Ohio State two weeks ago here in Happy Valley. The Nittany Lions at least still covered that game and are now a money-making 23-9 ATS overall the L3 seasons. One of the games they failed to cover was LY's visit to East Lansing where they lost 27-24 as nine-point favorites. Just like this year, they were coming off a narrow loss (1 point) to Ohio State. But the difference this year is the bye. Last year, they immediately had to play Sparty in an obvious letdown spot. This time, there has been time to "get over" the loss to the Buckeyes and get prepared to exact some revenge. 

Last year's game was decided on a last second FG in terrible weather. The game was actually delayed for 3.5 hours w/ Penn State up 14-7. Weather is not expected to be a factor Saturday in Happy Valley. The last time Michigan State visited here, they were soundly beaten, 45-12. Both teams may have started their respective season w/ a closer than expected call (MSU vs. Utah State, PSU vs. App State), but that's where the comparisons end. Penn State handily defeated its next three opponents (even w/ underwhelming 1st halves) and probably should have beaten Ohio State as well. Look for Nittany Lions QB Trace McSorley to have a big game here, similar to Northwestern's Clayton Thorson last week against this Michigan State defense, which is giving up over 300 YPG through the air. 8* Penn State

8* Charlotte (3:30 ET): We're going all home dogs in this package, starting w/ a matchup you're probably pretty unfamiliar with. But it looks like I'm not the only one who sees some significant value on a Charlotte here as the 49ers have actually been bet down a few points from the opening number. Still, I love the situation as they are off a bye. It was not a great first month of the season by any means as Charlotte's two wins saw them beat a FCS school (Fordham) and an Old Dominion team that had to deal w/ a schedule change due to Hurricane Florence (to be fair, Charlotte also had to deal w/ the change, but they were at home). But both wins did come here at home and I'm not sure Western Kentucky is a team that should be laying this many points on the road, even if they have covered three in a row and are off a bye themselves. Take the points.

Looking on the bright side, Charlotte already has more wins than they did all of last year (went 1-11 SU). That's not a surprise to me as the figured to be improved bringing back 18 starters. I think the last two games definitely deserve to be described as disappointing being that they actually outgained UMass in a 49-31 loss and could then muster only seven points against UAB. But both those games took place on the road and UAB was coming off its own bye. This will actually be the 49ers' 1st Saturday home game since Opening Weekend and I expect them to come out highly motivated. I thought the defense actually played remarkably well against UAB, given the circumstance. The Blazers came in ranked #8 in the country, averaging 280 YPG rushing. But the 49ers held them to a season-low 116 yds on the ground.

Western Kentucky might be 4-1 ATS, but they have just one SU win to show for it and that came against Ball State. The Hilltoppers have three losses by a field goal each, one of them to an FCS school, Maine. Granted, they've played well enough to win some of these games, whether it be Louisville (blew a double-digit lead) or Marshall (fumbled at the 10-yd line late). But they haven't been able to finish due to the offense converting on only 69% of its chances in the red zone and the kicking game missing half of its field goal attempts. My "gut" tells me this ends up being a close game where taking the points is the way to go. Charlotte QB Chris Reynolds and RB Benny Lemay can make enough plays that an outright upset isn't out of the realm of possibility. 8* Charlotte

8* Navy (3:30 ET): What is going on w/ Navy? The Midshipmen's season appears to be sinking fast w/ a 2-3 SU record that includes B2B outright losses to SMU and Air Force. If you recall, I faded the Middies at SMU, a game they lost in overtime. The team is actually now 0-3 ATS w/ three outright losses in the road favorite role this season after the horrible performance LW at Air Force, made all the more shocking by the fact they were off a bye. But this week finds them back in the more comfortable role of home underdog, which has treated them unbelievably well through the years. Navy's record as a home dog under HC Ken Niumatalolo is 6-1 SU and ATS w/ an outright win over Memphis earlier this season. I'll gladly take the points here against a Temple team that seems overvalued coming off a 49-6 win over East Carolina last week.

Temple's season did not appear to be destined for anything special when they opened w/ B2B home losses to Villanova (FCS school) and Buffalo. But they turned things around w/ a shocking performance at Maryland the following week, winning 35-14 as 16-pt dogs, and are 3-0 ATS since w/ the only loss coming at Boston College. This week will be the 1st time that the Owls are favored on the road, however, and that change can be a big deal. I'm not so sure this team is as good as it looked last week against East Carolina, who simply isn't a very good team. That game got out of hand very quickly w/ Temple jumping out to a 28-0 lead early in the 2Q following a 59-yard punt return for a touchdownn. QB Anthony Russo had a career day, completing 21 of 25 passes w/ four touchdowns. But he had a 0-4 TD-INT ratio the two weeks prior. 

Last week's effort against Air Force may have been the worst I have ever seen from Navy under Niumatalolo. They were held to only 178 total yards, easily a season low. Despite the defense allowing only 17 first downs for the game, Air Force still gained almost 400 total yards (399) as two of their five TD drives took less than a minute. I expect a huge bounce back effort from the service academy Saturday as they are 2-0 in Annapolis this season. Last year, the Owls had the benefit of facing Navy off a bye and facing Army the week prior.They pulled off a 34-26 upset as seven-point home dogs. What a swing in the line for this year. Temple has NEVER beaten Navy three straight times. 8* Navy

10* Duke (12:20 ET): Whether you're playing Georgia Tech or one of the service academies, successfully defending the triple option really seems to hinge on adequate preparation. Louisville is a poorly coached team going south in a hurry, but the Cardinals were also certainly ill-prepared for the Georgia Tech offense last Thursday in a 66-31 whitewashing. That game found L'ville not only playing on a short week, but also off a heartbreaking loss to Florida State the previous Saturday. They wanted no part of the Yellow Jackets, who ran for an astounding 532 yards. However, this week, the situation could not be more different for Ga Tech's opponent. Duke is off a bye and has already faced the triple option this year - when they beat Army 34-14. I'm taking the points here. 

Duke actually faces the triple option fairly regularly. Not only is Ga Tech a regular ACC opponent (both play in the Coastal Division), but they have faced Army three straight years as well. This is the second time this year they go up against the triple option in the most ideal spot possible. Army opened this year's schedule, so they had plenty of time to prepare and it showed in a 34-14 win where they allowed only 168 yards on 47 carries (only 3.57 YPC). Keep in mind that when they beat Army LY, the Blue Devils allowed only 4.0 YPC, which was an Army season low. Now they're off the bye getting ready to face Georgia Tech, who they've beaten three of the past four seasons. Last year, they won 43-20 as a seven-point home dog, the week after facing Army. 

Duke is a better team this year as they started 4-0 before a loss to Virginia Tech two weeks ago. That loss saw the return of QB Daniel Jones to the field and though the team lost, Jones should play a lot better here with two weeks to prepare. HC David Cutcliffe is an incredible 14-2 ATS w/ 12 outright upsets as an underdog of four points or less. He's also 7-1 ATS against option teams, including a perfect 4-0 ATS w/ three outright upsets the L4 seasons. Georgia Tech may come in off B2B 60+ pt efforts, but those came against two absolutely terrible teams in Bowling Green and Louisville. Defensively, Duke has the edge as they are holding opponents to 89 YPG less than what they average for the season. Georgia Tech is giving up 34 PPG and over 470 YPG to FBS teams this year. The better team is getting points here. 10* Duke

10* Tulsa (7:00 ET): South Florida enters the weekend as 1 of 11 teams still w/o a loss this season. But of the 11, they just may be the weakest. The fact that the Bulls actually find themselves ranked in the top 25 this week is instructive as to just how pointless those rankings are. For the sake of reference, I have USF rated just outside the top SIXTY teams in the country. That "0" in the loss column may go a long way w/ the pollsters, but not w/ me. While the Bulls did just hang 58 points and 574 total yards on UMass last Saturday (also benefited from five turnovers), they won their previous two games - over Eastern Carolina & Illinois - by only a combined 13 points. East Carolina and Georgia Tech both outgained USF by more than 150 total yards. 

Tulsa is just 1-4 SU w/ four straight losses. But they have a bit of an edge right off the bat w/ two extra days to prepare. While USF was on the road last Saturday at UMass, the Golden Hurricane last played on Thursday. So this isn't even a short week for them. And that 41-26 loss at Houston last week was a little misleading in the sense that Tulsa led 26-17 early in the fourth quarter despite starting a backup freshman quarterback. They held the ball for 11 more minutes than Houston and gained 426 yards despite said backup QB and also being without one of their top two running backs. RB Shamari Brooks has 375 rushing yards on the year and is expected back on the field Friday. The Golden Hurricane are averaging more than 200 rush yards per game. 

USF, specifically RB Jordan Cronkite, can also run the ball as was evident last week vs. UMass when Cronkite topped 300 yds by his lonesome. But I'm still not sold on Charlie Strong's team. The schedule has certainly been pretty weak to this point w/ four wins over teams that are below a .333 win percentage vs. FBS foes dating back to last year and FCS Elon. The Bulls also commit a lot of penalties, which could bite them in this road favorite role. They have lost three of their previous four Friday night road games. These teams played last year, with USF winning only 27-20 as 22-pt home favorites. This isn't a typical trip for the Bulls with their only prior visit coming in 2014. I'm taking the points this week. 10* Tulsa

8* Texas State (7:30 ET): Georgia Southern is one of four teams that remains unbeaten against the spread. One of the other three also happens to hail from the Sun Belt, that being Appalachian State, who we made the mistake of fading Tuesday. Georgia Southern happens to play in the same division (SBC East) as App State and it figures to be a dogfight moving forward between the two teams at Troy. Last Saturday saw GSU make it a perfect 5-0 against the number w/ a commanding 48-13 win over South Alabama. The only team to defeat the Eagles this year was Clemson and that happens to be their only road game played so far. Thursday night finds them laying a big number at Texas State and while it looks like a mismatch, I think the underdog finds a way to compete here. 

Texas State HC Everett Withers has struggled to build a winner in San Marcos. His first two teams each went 2-10 SU. I thought this year's team would be better, but it's been tough sledding w/ the only win coming against an FCS school, Texas Southern. They were blown out at Rutgers to start the year, which they followed w/ the win over Texas Southern. They've since dropped three in a row, but none by more than 15 points. Against South Alabama, they led by 2 TDs on the road, but were outscored 18-0 in the fourth quarter. Each of the last two weeks, bad starts have doomed them. But they've been able to put some points on the board late. That will be critical here as there should at least be a chance to "backdoor" given the size of the pointspread. 

I'd honestly be shocked if Texas State won this game. Truthfully, the season is not looking good with most of their hardest conference games still to come. But this is a rare TV game at home and I at least expect a strong effort from the Bobcats. Georgia Southern may very well be overlooking this game w/ just five days to prepare. While the Eagles are certainly used to being favored, laying this many points on the road is still relatively new for a school that made the jump to FBS only four years ago. That first season at the FBS level saw them barely escape w/ a win here in San Marcos. They haven't faced Texas State in either of the past two seasons and this spread may very well end up as the most points they've ever had to lay on the road. Look for this game to be closer than expected. 8* Texas State

10* Arkansas State (8:00 ET): To those who follow the Sun Belt, seeing Arkansas State as an underdog - in Jonesboro no less - is quite stunning. Especially of this magnitude. The Red Wolves have won this conference five times since 2010. They've only been a dog seven times, just three of those coming under current HC Blake Anderson. Their ATS record is a perfect 7-0 w/ SIX outright wins. They're getting almost double digits Tuesday and that's virtually unprecedented. The only time under Anderson that the Red Wolves have gotten this many points at home was when Missouri visited in 2015. This year's team is 3-2 SU w/ one of the two losses coming to Alabama. The other was two Saturdays ago to Georgia Southern, a spot they were favored on the road. I'll take the points here.

Appalachian State is unbeaten against the spread (4-0) and nearly won at Penn State. They took the Nittany Lions to overtime in the season opener and since then it's been three straight wins over cupcakes. They also had a game vs. Southern Miss cancelled due to Florence. As impressive as sticking w/ Penn State in Happy Valley was, we've learned little about the Mountaineers since then. Charlotte, Gardner-Webb nor South Alabama were no match, so you can basically "throw out" the respective final scores of 45-9, 72-7 and 52-7. This is not a place App State is used to visiting (last time here was '14) nor is Arkansas State an opponent they are all that familiar with. They have not even played the last two years.

Because they are 4-0 ATS w/ three blowout wins, this number is inflated. Three blowout wins have inflated their power rating. Take the fact that the Mountaineers rank 8th nationally in total defense w/ a grain of salt. I'm actually a little shocked that Arkansas State has not topped 30 pts since its opener vs. FCS SE Missouri State. They were the only SBC power to return its starting QB, that being senior Justice Hansen. He's underperformed to this point in the season, but that can change in a hurry. He threw for 376 yds in the loss to Ga Southern, a game that was not decided until the final seconds. Ark State outgained GSU in the 28-21 loss and had nearly twice as many first downs. 10* Arkansas State 

10* Houston (8:20 ET): Both Texas teams are desperate for a win Sunday night, but only one can get it. Houston is used to being in desperation mode as they opened 0-3. All three losses came by seven points or less, so it's not like they were getting blown out. Figuring the "worm was due to turn," I took the Texans last week and they grinded out an OT win over the Colts, 37-34. All that work would be for naught, however, if they reverted back to losing here. As I said last week, this team is better than its record. They came into last week ranked 8th in yards per play on offense and those number obviously got better w/ a 37-point effort. Their defense, led by JJ Watt, should have no problem containing a rather one-dimensional Dallas offense and I'll lay the points.

The Cowboys are 2-2, having won twice at home and lost twice on the road. The two road games have seen them score just 21 pts total while they're averaging 23 PPG at home. It also helped to play two bad teams, the Lions and Giants, at home. Last week, they blew a 10-pt fourth quarter lead against the Lions, only to rally for a GW FG on the final play. We know the Cowboys can run the ball effectively (145 YPG) but their passing attack just might be the worst in the league. From a personnel standpoint, I can't think of a worse receiving corps. Going back to last year, there's been just one time in the last six road games that the Cowboys have topped 212 yards passing. 

Traditionally, this has been a shaky spot for Houston as they are 0-6 ATS the L3 seasons off a division win. But I have a hard time forgetting they were up 28-10 last week on the Colts before letting Andrew Luck make things interesting. The defense is top 10 in the league against the run, allowing fewer than 100 YPG, so they match up well w/ the Dallas offense. The Cowboys had a much more favorable matchup last week against the Lions, whose defense is much better against the pass than they are the run. Note that the Cowboys' defense has previously had trouble w/ two dual-threat type QBs this year (Cam Newton and Russell Wilson). Houston's DeShaun Watson presents similar problems and I'm projecting him to have a big game here. Look for the Texans to "show up" big in this Sunday night home game. 10* Houston 

10* Seattle (4:25 ET): As much of a decline as the Seahawks are in, I have to say that them getting so many points at home still looks odd. Granted, it's the Rams coming to town and I don't think there's any disputing that they are the best team in football right now. LA did humiliate the Seahawks up here in Seattle last season, 42-7, but I do not see the same thing happening again this time. I realize that the 'Hawks may be at the nadir of the Pete Carroll era right now w/ the loss of Earl Thomas for the rest of the season. But this is still a prideful team that will show up to play at home. They definitely won't be lacking for motivation this week. The last time Seattle was a home dog of seven points or more was the infamous playoff win against the Saints where Marshawn Lynch made the Earth shake. 

The Rams are 4-0 straight up and their ATS record depends on what number you are using for last Thursday's game against Minnesota. Cover, no-cover, or push, the Rams offense was certainly outstanding in that game, totaling 38 pts and 556 total yards against a Mike Zimmer defense. The Rams have scored 33 or more points in every game so far with seven points being their closest margin of victory. I will concede that they are clearly the best team in football right now. But this spread is still too high. Laying a field goal I could understand, but not a full touchdown. I believe this number is an overreaction to the Thomas injury and the fact the Rams just played on national television. 

Seattle has won B2B games, by the way. Yes, the teams they beat were Dallas and Arizona. But the defense allowed just 30 pts total in those two wins. Three of the Seahawks' four games this year have been decided by a TD or less and they've only gotten to play once at home. (The 24-13 win over Dallas). Over the L3 weeks, the defense is allowing an average of just 279 YPG. Yes, they now must deal w/ losing the irreplaceable Thomas. But the loss of him alone will not cause this defense to fall off a cliff. On offense, they still have QB Russell Wilson to make plays. This is my favorite play of the week. Take the points. 10* Seattle

8* Arizona (4:25 ET): The Cardinals are the last winless team in the league, so we know they'll be desperate for a win this week in San Francisco. Each of the last two weeks have seen the Cards come oh so close - only to fail by a field goal or less both times. Two weeks ago at home, they led Chicago much of the way before ultimately coming up short in a 16-14 loss. It was a similar story LW vs. Seattle where they lost on a field goal as time expired, 20-17. The Seattle game marked the 1st career start for QB Josh Rosen and while the numbers seem to indicate a rather pedestrian performance (180 yds, 1 TD), he was plagued by drops from his receivers. I counted five. Had those been completions, Rosen would have been close to a 300-yd game and Arizona probably would have won. To me, there's no disputing that the Cardinals are a more dynamic offensive team w/ the rookie Rosen under center.

Arizona is the winless team, but San Francisco might have more issues heading into Week 5, namely on the injury front. You probably are well aware that QB Jimmy Garoppolo has been lost for the season. Well, there are issues at all the skill positions as RB Matt Brieda is dealing with a shoulder injury and both starting WRs - Dante Pettis and Marquise Goodwin - are battling their own respective injuries. Pettis has been ruled out while Breida and Goodwin are listed as questionable. Speaking of questionable, the Niners could be w/o as many as THREE starters along the offensive line! Joe Staley, Weston Richburg and Mike McGlinchey. Those "only" the center and both starting tackles. Somehow, with CJ Beathard starting at QB last week, the team put up a game effort in a 29-27 loss to the Chargers. But I would not expect that to continue. 

The 49ers have lost six straight to the Cardinals, getting swept in the season series each of the last three years. Then there's this ... they are 0-11-2 ATS the L13 times they have been a home favorite. It's a streak that dates back to December of 2013. I understand Arizona deserves to be a dog in this spot, but I'd have a real hard time laying points w/ this 49ers team starting Beathard at QB w/ few weapons at his disposal and an injury-ravaged offensive line. With Rosen now in the fold, the Cardinals go into this game w/ the edge at QB and they're getting points. The Rams are the only offense to score more than 24 points on the Arizona defense. San Francisco had a defensive TD last week, so their 27 pts scored was a little misleading. I'm taking the points here. 8* Arizona

8* Buffalo (1:00 ET): Now I know what you're thinking. "Not Buffalo!" The Bills, a playoff team year ago, have fallen both hard and fast. Considering the unanimous view that they are one of the two worst teams in football (Arizona), it's almost crazy to think that this was a playoff team a year ago. Last week was another clunker as they were shutout in Green Bay, 22-0. It was the second game this year that the Bills' offense was held to three points or less AND gained less than 155 total yards. But, hey, they do have that stunning 27-6 win at Minnesota in Week 3. They also have something in common w/ this week's opponent, Tennessee. Neither team has been favored in a single game this season.

Tennessee is a surprising 3-1. I say "surprising" because they haven't been favored a single time. After opening the season w/ a road loss to Miami (two long rain delays), they've won three straight by a total of nine points. Every win has been by exactly a field goal including 26-23 last week as a home dog over the Super Bowl Champion Eagles. They've also beaten Jacksonville on the road, 9-6. Note that last week's win did come in overtime and the Titans were outgained. They actually gave up a FG to start OT before answering w/ a TD. Despite their 3-1 SU record, Tennessee is being outgained on a per play basis and by about 50 YPG. The offense was held under 300 total yds by both Houston & Jacksonville. I would not trust this team as a road favorite yet, especially this many points.

Playing at home, I think that the Bills defense can keep them in this one throughout. They rank in the top half of the league in yards allowed and top 10 in yards per play. Remember that Titans QB Marcus Mariota has been battling a nerve issue in his elbow. Tennessee easily could have lost last week as they were down 14 in the second half. Had they lost that game, my guess is we'd be viewing this team a whole lot differently right now. The Titans are just 11-21 ATS their past 32 road games. Having not won a single game by more than a field goal this year, I'm not about to lay almost a touchdown w/ them on the road, even against Buffalo. The number is now inflated. Take the points. 8* Buffalo

8* San Jose State (10:30 ET): You have to feel for San Jose State, who remains winless after a 5 OT loss here at home to Hawaii last weekend. But the Spartans were still a winner for me in that thrilling game as they easily covered the number. In fact, they led outright most of the way, which is what made the final result so disheartening for them. At no point were they "out of the money" as double digit dogs. While that kind of result can have a negative effect on a team, in this instance I think it will be galvanizing. This is a team that feels they should have won last week and remains desperate for that elusive first victory. I think they have an excellent shot at getting it this week against a Colorado State team that is much worse than you think. I'll take the points w/ SJSU again. 

SJSU led Hawaii by as much as two touchdowns in the 1st half and was still up 31-24 late in the 4th quarter. They gave up a 12-play, 75-yard drive to send the game into OT, but by that point the cover was already assured. Still, I wanted the outright win. They answered Hawaii's touchdown in the 1st OT w/ one of their own and then the 2nd and 3rd OTs both saw each team miss a field goal. After missing their chance to win in the 3rd OT, the Spartans took the lead in the 4th OT by actually making a field goal. But Hawaii answered w/ one of their own, then made another in OT #5. Appropriately perhaps, the game ended on a missed FG by San Jose State. A brutal loss for sure, but after coming so close, the Spartans will be ready to go this week. They've already played both Washington State and Oregon, so this game is a significant drop in class for them. 

Colorado State has gone 7-6 SU each of the last three seasons and has been to a bowl each of the last five years. But this year's squad has had its issues right off the bat. HC Mike Bobo was dealing with health issues and the roster is the least experienced in the entire country. This is a bottom 10 team in the country, in my opinion, and they should not be favored on the road here. In retrospect, it was an insane that they opened the season as 17-point favorites at Hawaii, a game they lost 43-34. (I had Hawaii). After getting blown out by in-state rival Colorado (45-13), many thought the Rams had turned the corner when they upset Arkansas (at home), but we didn't know how bad the Hogs were at that time. The Rams' next SEC opponent (Florida) wasn't as kind as the final was 48-10 in Gainesville, but the following week was far more embarrassing w/ CSU losing outright at home to FCS Illinois State, 35-19. Yes, they've had a week off to recoup, but the situation isn't enough to overlook a clearly inflated line this week. The Rams offense has been held under 20 pts in three of five games so far. San Jose State has revenge for a 42-14 loss in Ft. Collins last year. 8* San Jose State

8* Mississippi State (7:30 ET): What was looking like a promising season in Starkville is now close to going off the rails w/ a disappointing 0-2 start in SEC play. Three weeks ago, I had no qualms about laying a massive number w/ the Bulldogs (nearly five touchdowns) against Louisiana and was rewarded w/ a 56-10 win. That result had them at 3-0 straight up and against the spread w/ an avg MOV of 41.3 PPG. I thought a case could be made this was team on track to be Top 10 in the country, but they've unfathomably been held to just 13 points in two weeks and less than 200 YPG. Now they have to take a visit from an Auburn team that is in fact top 10 in the country. But I happen to think MSU is a tremendous value as a home dog, a role they almost certainly would NOT have been in this spot were this game played just two weeks ago. Take the points. 

Auburn has already played two Top 10 opponents and split the pair. They opened the season w/ a 21-16 "neutral site" game vs. Washington (had significant crowd support edge in Atlanta), but were actually a little lucky to win that game thanks to two costly UW turnovers. Two weeks later, they lost at the gun to LSU, 22-21 as 10-pt home favorites. That one shocked many. Despite two subsequent double digit victories - over Arkansas and Southern Miss - I really haven't been impressed w/ Auburn in either game. Even though they beat Arkansas 34-3, they were actually outgained 290-225! Scoring 34 points on 225 total yards is not easy to do and that win was almost exclusively owed to the special teams. Last week vs. Southern Miss saw a long weather delay and was still a one-score game late into the 4Q. 

I came into the year thinking Auburn was due to regress. That might sound crazy considering they actually lost four games last year despite also holding wins over both Alabama and Georgia (two teams that played for Nat'l Title). Mississippi State is a team I had improving and that certainly looked smart after three games. I'm not sure what has gone wrong the last two weeks, but it's hard for me to see this team losing B2B weeks in Starkville. This is also double revenge spot as they've been humbled each of the last two years by Auburn. For Auburn, this is their first "true" road game. While 15-1 SU their L16 games at Jordan-Hare (7-0 LY), the Tigers have gone 6-7 SU away from home since the start of 2016. I still believe in Nick Fitzgerald and Mississippi State. 8* Mississippi State

8* Arizona State (4:00 ET): The Herm Edwards hire at Arizona State was critically panned initially, but then quickly required a reassessment when the Sun Devils upset Michigan State back in Week 2. I was on ASU in that spot and came away impressed w/ just how well this outfit was coached. Some of the enthusiasm has since waned as the team went on to drop B2B games at San Diego State and Washington. But those were two quality foes, both on the road. Things got back in track LW in Tempe w/ a dominant 52-24 win over perennial Pac 12 doormat Oregon State. One thing is for sure and that's Coach Herm is beating the oddsmakers' expectations w/ the team now 4-1 ATS. I love them as a dog this week at unbeaten Colorado, who is due to drop a game. Take the points. 

Colorado is one of 14 teams still w/o a blemish in the loss column. They are the only Pac 12 team still unbeaten, which I don't think anyone expected. Remember that two years ago Mike MacIntyre (a fine head coach) led this team to a 10-4 SU record and Pac 12 South title. They predictably dropped last year, but a 5-7 record was definitely worse than what the faithful in Boulder were looking for. But just as predictable as LY's decline is this year's improvement. They are 4-0 w/ one outright upset at Nebraska where they clearly benefited from an injury to the opposing QB. We also had no idea how bad the Cornhuskers were at the time. Still, the Buffs needed two TDs in the final minute to win 33-28 in Lincoln, a game they were outgained 565-395, but also lucky to be +3 in turnovers. 

Colorado has yet to beat a team currently ranked inside my top 90! Their two Power 5 wins - Nebraska and UCLA - are two of the weakest you can have. Their other wins are against Colorado State (bottom 10 FBS team this year) and New Hampshire, a FCS school. Last Friday against UCLA saw them blow up what was a close game going into the 2nd half w/ four straight TDs. That won't be happening here against a Sun Devils' defense giving up less than 20 PPG. ASU has won 8 of the 9 matchups as Pac 12 rivals, including 41-30 LY in Tempe as they outscored CU 24-3 in the 4th quarter. Yes, the Buffs are a better team in 2018, but so are the Sun Devils. Last week saw RB Eno Benjamin become the 1st player to top 300 yds rushing in a game this season at the FBS level, 185 of them coming by halftime. The last FBS team to give up 300 yds rushing to an individual was Colorado last year, against Arizona. 8* Arizona State 

10* Miami FL (3:30 ET): Each of Miami's last two games have been pretty misleading finals. They've won both handily, but the one that was a blowout was probably closer than the score indicates while it was vice versa with the other. Two weeks ago against Florida International was a truly dominant performance. At one point, total yardage was 397-10 in the Canes' favor and they led 31-0 late into the 4Q. But then FIU decided to go on a late scoring frenzy w/ 17 unanswered points against Miami's backups. In the end, it was still a 488-187 edge in total yardage. Off that performance, I laid the big number w/ "The U" last Thursday against North Carolina. Forcing six turnovers was huge in a game where total yardage was basically even and Miami had only 14 first downs. The defense scored THREE touchdowns and it was an easy win and cover (47-10 final score). 

Florida State squeaked out win last Saturday at Louisville, but this team remains a mess. They are now 3-2 SU in Willie Taggert's first year here, but probably should be 1-4! They had to rally late to beat FCS Samford 36-26 and that win probably doesn't happen if not for forcing five turnovers. Last week, they escaped L'ville w/ a win only because Bobby Petrino failed to run the clock out properly. The Cardinals had a three-point lead and were on the FSU 21-yard line w/ less than two minutes to go. Incredibly, Petrino called a pass play and the Seminoles intercepted, leading to the GW TD. For me, it didn't matter as I still cashed Louisville plus the points. But it should have been an outright win. FSU's other two ACC games - vs. Va Tech and Syracuse - have seen them get outscored 54-10. They are now 0-10-1 ATS in conference play since the start of last season. 

Looking back through this heated rivalry, I'm not sure the last time Miami has has such a "golden" opportunity to "lay the wood" to FSU as they do here. Last year, they won in Tallahassee, ending a seven-game series losing streak. This game is in Coral Gables where they've won their last 12 regular season games. The majority of these FSU-Miami games have been close (14 of the last 16 decided by 7 pts or less). But this spread isn't nearly high enough considering how good Miami has looked since the loss to LSU. That loss looked bad at the time, but note they actually held the Tigers under 300 total yds! Florida State has looked really "iffy" under Taggert and the books have been slow to react as to just how mediocre this program is right now. This is their second straight week playing on the road, off a lucky, down to the wire win. This is Miami's third straight home game and they've had two extra days to prepare. 10* Miami FL

8* Florida (3:30 ET): Back on 9.8, when Florida lost at home to Kentucky, there was still a lot we didn't know. For starters, who had any idea that UK would rise up to the top 15 of the rankings? It also appears as if it was largely a mistake to write off the Gators. They've subsequently won three straight games, two by double digits and then an upset of Mississippi State last week. That upset caught many off-guard seeing as it was HC Dan Mullen's first venture back to Starkville since leaving that school high and dry. The Gators' fine defense held the Bulldogs to just 202 total yards in 13-6 win as seven-point road underdogs. The SEC gauntlet has undefeated LSU coming to Gainesville this week and I believe Mullen's Gators are poised to possibly hand them their 1st loss. 

LSU HC Ed Orgeron entered 2018 on the hot seat. I'll admit that I thought LSU was heading for a "down year" in the SEC West. Instead, it's been anything but. The 5-0 start began w/ an upset of Miami, 33-17, where I was on the wrong side. The Bayou Bengals have also gone to Auburn and pulled a 22-21 upset as 10-pt underdogs. Few teams in the country can claim to own two wins that impressive. But the offense was held to less than 300 yds by a Miami defense that isn't as strong as the one they'll go up against here. The Auburn game saw them down double digits in the 2nd half. Let's also not forget that it was a three-point game at home vs. LA Tech in the fourth quarter (total yds even despite 38-21 final). Last week was an impressive win over Ole Miss and I suspect that has inflated this number. 

Most of the recent LSU-Florida games have been close affairs. LSU has won 6 of 8, including 3 of the last 4 w/ all four decided by a TD or less. In a scheduling quirk, this will be the second straight year having to go to Gainesville. (In 2016, Hurricane Matthew caused the game to be moved to Baton Rouge). Florida lost LY by a single point, 17-16, as a one-point favorite. LSU came into that game unranked and off an embarrassing loss the week prior to Troy. It's a much different situation this year and the Gators are a much better (and more experienced) team. It's not often the home team is a dog in The Swamp and LSU is 0-2 ATS the L2 times it has been a road fave of a field goal or less. Take the points. 8* Florida 

10* Kansas (12:00 ET): West Virginia, now ranked in the top 10 nationally, is probably deserving of being called the second best team in the Big 12 (behind only Oklahoma). But though they're 4-0 SU/ATS, I'm still not sure that we know that much about the Mountaineers. Their first three victories of the season - over Tennessee, Youngstown State and Kansas State - all came against bad teams. They did go to Texas Tech last week and pick up a big 42-34 win, but the final was a bit misleading and I'm not just saying that because I had the other side. WVU did jump out to an early 28-10 lead in Lubbock, but were also +3 in turnovers against a Red Raiders team down to its THIRD QB of the season. Total yardage was basically even as the WVU offense was shutout in the 2H.

Kansas is obviously recognized as the worst team in the Big XII. But the Jayhawks have already exceeded LY's win total! This season did not get off to a great start w/ a home loss to FCS Nicholls State. But HC David Beatty rallied the troops for rare B2B wins, beating Central Michigan and Rutgers by a combined 65 points. They've since gone 0-2 in conference play, losing to Baylor and Oklahoma State by 19.5 PPG. For most teams, that would be very disappointing. But for the Jayhawks, it actually represents progress! Last year's team was outgained by 193 YPG and outscored by 32 PPG. The improvement the 2018 team has shown thus far really shouldn't be that surprising. After all, this team entered this year as the most experienced in the entire country! 

I wouldn't go so far to say Kansas has given WVU "trouble" the last two years. But they have been able to at least hang around and make things interesting from an ATS perspective. Here in Morgantown, two years ago, they covered as 34-point dogs (final score: 48-21). Last year was a 56-34 game that fell right on the number. However, it was actually 42-34 before WVU scored two TD's in the final five minutes. There is no doubt in my mind that the Jayhawks are much improved in 2018. Meanwhile, maybe it's fair to call WVU the 2nd best team in the conference, but I believe they're currently overvalued from a national perspective. As an underdog of 21.5 to 31 points, KU is a solid 5-2 ATS the L3 seasons. They were only down 13 late in the 4Q vs. OK State last week. 10* Kansas 

10* Utah State (9:00 ET): Utah State is quietly having itself a solid season. Their only loss came in the season opener, at Michigan State, and they probably should have won that game. They led Sparty going into the final two minutes before giving up a GW TD. Since then, it's been all double digit wins for the Aggies as they've rolled New Mexico State, Tennessee Tech and Air Force. I had them against Air Force two weeks ago and though they pushed for me (was an ATS win for some), it was still an impressive win in Logan. They were up 21 in the second half before allowing the Falcons in through the backdoor (there was a defensive TD involved). Now USU is off a bye as they take on BYU in the annual battle for the "Old Wagon Wheel." I love the underdog in this year's installment. 

No one is going to confuse Utah State's schedule w/ BYU's, but the Cougars' status as an independent may be starting to take a toll. Everyone remembers the memorable upset of Wisconsin three weeks ago, but they looked gassed LW in a 35-7 loss at Washington. The offense was shutout in that game until the closing minutes and held to only 194 total yards and seven first downs. Now, Utah State is nowhere near as good as Washington is defensively. But what the Aggies can do is put points on the board (they average 51.5 per game). I don't think BYU is going to be able to trade scores in this Friday night matchup. Also, this is the sixth straight game w/o a bye, not a huge deal (many teams in same spot this week) until you consider they've had to alternate home & road every week. 

Utah State beat BYU by 16 last season, a rare win in this rivalry. Yes, that game was at home and BYU wasn't very good. But USU also looks to be much improved for 2018, if not moreso than BYU. Coming off the bye is huge for the Aggies, especially considering BYU is on a short week after a tough loss in primetime. It's rare for Utah State to have a legit shot at winning this rivalry game in B2B years. I think they enter more focused as BYU has already played three Pac 12 teams and Wisconsin. Take the points. 10* Utah State

10* Denver (8:15 ET): It's a new quarterback, yet the same success for Kansas City, who has raced out to a 3-0 start behind the sensational QB play of Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is the first QB in NFL history to throw at least 13 touchdown passes in the first three games of a season. Under HC Andy Reid, the games that the Chiefs have enjoyed the most success have been those against divisional foes. They are a ridiculous 17-2 SU vs. the rest of the AFC West the last four years, including a 38-28 win over the Chargers back in Week 1! That includes five straight wins (and covers) over Monday's opponent, the Denver Broncos. But with the high-flying start, I believe KC is a little overvalued in being asked to lay this many points on the road. Take the home dog on MNF!

As exciting as Mahomes and the rest of the KC offense has been, the team's defense has actually been very bad. They are giving up 30.7 points per game. That hasn't caught up w/ them yet - because the offense has been so good - but eventually, it will. That scoring average by the Chiefs defense ranks 30th in the league right now and they are also 32nd (i.e. dead last) in terms of yards allowed. The Denver offense may not be as impressive on paper, but it's a group I have projected to improve in 2018. On the road last week in Baltimore, the Broncos didn't manage much (only 14 pts). But in the first two weeks, both here at home, they scored 27 and 20 points. Case Keenum may not evoke memories of the Peyton Manning era here in Mile High, but he's far more competent than what the team had under center last season. 

Denver was also hurt last week when RB Phillip Lindsay was ejected for throwing a punch. It's defending the pass where Kansas City has been more susceptible so far this season, but they also gave up 178 yds rushing LW to the 49ers. Really, you have to think the Chiefs' numbers at stopping the run would be far worse if not for the fact they've gotten off to a great start offensively in all three games. It is imperative for the Broncos not to fall behind early in this game. Playing at home, in primetime, I don't think they will. Their defense has yet to allow 300 yards passing or 100 yards rushing in any game and if they keep that streak alive, then they'll at least cover here. 10* Denver

8* Baltimore (8:20 ET): Contrary to popular belief, one win will not cure all that ails the Steelers as this is a team w/ a lot of deficiencies - on both sides of the ball. I took them Monday night as it was not only a desperate spot at 0-2, but they were also facing a Bucs team w/ an overhyped QB. It's a more familiar foe in primetime this week, rival Baltimore, and the one less day to prepare does the Black & Gold no favors here. The Ravens have outgained all three opponents so far and seem to be a lot better on offense this season. They are averaging 32.3 points and 379 yards per game. Also, the Ravens have owned this rivalry - at the betting window, at least - going 5-1-1 ATS the past seven meetings. Five of the last six have been one score games. This has me on the dog Sunday night.

The Ravens are allowing a league-low 273 YPG through three weeks. Thus, they have outgained those same foes by over 100 YPG. They have a point differential of +46, which is the best in the AFC. Now that's all still skewed because they got to play the Bills in Week 1, but aside from digging an early hole too deep to climb out of in Week 2 vs. Cincinnati (Thurs night road game), Baltimore has looked very good this season. Certainly, their league-leading defense will be tested by a Pittsburgh offense that ranks third in yards per game. But it's a Steelers' offense that is still w/o RB LeVeon Bell. Two weeks ago, the Steelers scored 37 points, had 475 total yards, didn't turn the ball over once and still lost - at home. They are not going to be able to put up those kind of offensive numbers this week. 

The short week hasn't really bothered Mike Tomlin's team in the past as they're 3-0 SU the L3 seasons after playing on MNF. But they're also just 1-2 ATS. The Steelers were very lucky Monday night in Tampa as the Bucs turned the ball over four times. They picked off QB Ryan Fitzpatrick three times in the 1st half, returning one of them for a defensive score. The offense was actually shutout in the 2nd half and nearly blew a 20-pt halftime lead. Meanwhile, Baltimore looked good LW vs. Denver, executing well on both sides of the ball. The defense shut the Broncos out completely in the final three quarters and QB Joe Flacco completed 25 of 40 pass attempts. At the end of the day, I'm just not that high on this Steelers team this year. 8* Baltimore 

10* Houston (1:00 ET): The Texans are winless - both straight up and against the number - at 0-3 and desperate for a win this week at Indianapolis. Needless to say, this is about as "must-win" as it gets. Going back to last season, the team has now lost nine straight in the regular season and 12 of its last 13. HC Bill O'Brien no longer has the "excuse" of not having a healthy DeShaun Watson at QB. Another loss this week, to the division rival Colts, and O'Brien's "seat" will be most definitely be the hottest in the league. So needless to say, Houston won't be lacking for motivation in Week 4, nevermind the fact they have double revenge from LY against Indianapolis. I think the Texans are better than what they've shown so far and I'll take them in this spot. Take the points. 

Indianapolis is 1-2 SU and coming off a loss to the Eagles. Despite covering each of the last two games, they've been outgained both times. In a 21-9 win over Washington in Week 2, they had the three scoring drives, all of which were 75 yds or longer. But on all other drives in the game, they gained just 56 total yards. Talk about opportunistic. Last week's game in Philly was not as close as the final score of 20-16 indicates as the Colts were outgained 379-209 and were lucky that Eagles QB Carson Wentz turned it over twice inside his own 17-yard line. Even w/ the excellent field position, the Colts' offense couldn't do much, settling only for a pair of field goals. But those two kicks were the difference between covering and not covering. The Colts offense had only 14 first downs in the game and possessed the ball for less than 20 minutes. QB Andrew Luck is averaging a career-low 5.3 yards per pass attempt so far. 

Meanwhile, the Houston offense has performed better than you might think, averaging 6.1 yards per play, which ranks 8th in the league. All three losses have been by 7 pts or less. They outgained both the Titans (437-283) and Giants (427-329), yet didn't even cover either time. While the Colts did beat the Texans both times LY, note they were fortunate to avoid Watson both times. Watson has established a strong rapport w/ WRs Will Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins. They should put plenty of points on the board against a bad Colts defense. 10* Houston

8* Chicago (1:00 ET): The Bears aren't the most impressive 2-1 league, but given how the John Fox era went, they'll take this start under 1st year HC Matt Nagy. It may surprise some to find the Monsters of the Midway favored for a third straight week here. After suffering the heartbreaking loss to Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay in Week 1 (still covered), I took them again in Week 2 in a Monday night win over Seattle. Last week, I said they had no business being a road favorite, even against Arizona. They may have come back to win that game, 16-14, but never were "in the money" except for a brief moment at the end (when a pick-six was overturned). This week, they're back in the Windy City, laying a small number and I like the spot a lot. Lay the points! 

Tampa Bay is off a loss, on a short week and playing on the road. They also have a QB decision looming. Jameis Winston isn't suspended anymore, meaning the pressure is back on Ryan Fitzpatrick. Through two weeks of the season, this looked like an easy decision for Bucs HC Dirk Koetter. Fitzpatrick was playing at a "MVP level" (two 400+ yard games w/ 4 TD passes!) and the team was 2-0 SU. But, predictably, Fitzpatrick came back down to Earth Monday against the Steelers. Yes, it was a 4th straight 400+ yd game, but he threw three costly interceptions in the 1st half and the Bucs lost 30-27 at home. They were down 30-10 at half and 30-13 entering the 4th quarter. Now Koetter is "mum" on who will start this game and I think it's going to turn into a mess.

I'd be more concerned about the Bucs' game of secrecy if not for the fact the Bears have an outstanding defense. Admittedly, they have faced weak offenses each of the L2 weeks. But they rank 5th in total defense and 8th in scoring, giving them a huge edge over the Bucs' weak stop unit, which ranks 31st and 29th respectively. Chicago's pass rush should be a major factor in this game. On offense, QB Mitchell Trubisky remains a "work in progress," but this will be the weakest defense he's faced all year. Though it hasn't been pretty, the Bears probably should be 3-0 and remember I am higher on this team than most. They're not getting enough respect here at home. 8* Chicago

8* California (10:30 ET): What an absolutely horrendous spot this is for Oregon as they are laying points on the road (against a rested foe), one week removed from literally giving the game away against Stanford. As you've probably seen by now, the Ducks blew a 10-point lead in the closing minutes last week and lost in overtime. They were up by a touchdown, with the ball and just 50 seconds to go, when RB CJ Verdell fumbled in a situation the Ducks should have just been kneeling. Stanford then drove for a game-tying FG before winning in OT. Now here comes Cal, waiting in the wings, off its bye. The Bears certainly won't be lacking for motivation Saturday night as they are eager to overturn a 1-8 SU run in this Pac 12 rivalry. Cal has already beaten BYU on the road. Take the points.

If you can believe it, Oregon's loss to Stanford gets even worse with further inspection. They led 24-7 in the third quarter and appeared on the verge of making it 31-7 when a TD was overturned (incorrectly). After the TD was overturned, they fumbled and it was returned for a Stanford TD in a dramatic 14-pt swing. That was clearly the turning point in the game. The Ducks would score only one TD the rest of the game and even though they still finished w/ a 524-398 edge in total yds, it did not matter because of a -3 turnover differential. It is going to be extraordinarily difficult for the Ducks to get off the mat after that kind of setback, especially now having to lay points on the road. 

Oregon's only wins this year came against Bowling Green, Portland State and San Jose State. This is their 1st road game. They didn't come close to matching the expectations against San Jose State where they were massive 42.5-pt favorites (won 35-22). Cal has already beaten North Carolina and BYU. Like I've stated twice before, they are rested coming into this game and that's a big time advantage. Bears HC Justin Wilcox used to be an assistant under both Chris Petersen and Steve Sarkisian, both of whom had outstanding ATS records w/ an extra week of prep. Last year, Cal had one bye and it led to a cover against rival Stanford. This year's Cal squad is far better w/ 18 starters back, 10 on offense, and I believe they're set for the biggest win yet under HC Wilcox. Take the points. 8* California

10* San Jose State (7:00 ET): This is as good a spot as I've seen all month. Hawaii will be laying points on the mainland for just the fifth time in the last eight seasons. So far, they have gone 0-4 ATS w/ a pair of outright losses. Now this time they'll be against San Jose State, who is probably one of the weakest teams in FBS, but nearly two scores is way too much. Throw in the fact that San Jose State is off a bye and you have a great potential ambush spot. My numbers indicate that this number should be closer to a field goal than two touchdowns. That's a lot of value for a SJSU squad still hungry for its first win of the season. Note that Hawaii is just 1-8 ATS when favored the L3 seasons, including an 0-2 mark here in 2018. I'll be taking the points and an outright upset is not out of the realm of possibility! 

Now you have to tip your cap to Hawaii for the way it has started its season. They come into this game w/ a 4-1 record, including two monster upsets of their own. The first two games of the season saw them pull upsets against Colorado State and Navy, both coming as double digit underdogs. I took the Warriors in that Colorado State game and was stunned at just how easy they made it look. The win over Navy came in Honolulu and since then the team has been well traveled. The pointspread caught up w/ them in a 43-27 home win over Rice where they were 17-pt favorites. Then they had to fly all the way out to the opposite coast for a Noon ET kickoff against Army. They played better than expected there, but still lost 28-21. It was back to the island LW for a 42-21 win over FCS Duquesne where they actually trailed early, 14-0. This week isn't a long trip by Hawaii standards, but the fact remains the team is still only 6-32 SU in road games sincr 2012. 

San Jose State's season opened w/ a loss to FCS team, Cal Davis. Not trying to sugarcoat that one, but Cal Davis did play Stanford tough two weeks ago. Then came two predictable losses (both on the road) to Pac 12 schools, Washington State and Oregon. The Spartans were actually massive 42.5-pt dogs against Oregon and easily covered in a 35-22 loss. So it seems as if the lack of respect this squad is getting can really work to our benefit. If they can stay within two scores of Oregon on the road, then they certainly can do the same against road weary Hawaii. The bye week is key for SJSU, who were "only" 17-pt dogs when they traveled to Hawaii LY and lost 37-26. They actually have double revenge as they lost 34-17 here at home two years ago. Hawaii is getting way too much respect here and this line is too high. 10* San Jose State 

8* Louisville (3:30 ET): It has not been a great start to 2018 for Bobby Petrino and Louisville. Getting humbled by Alabama (lost 50-7) set an ominous tone. The Cardinals did pick up a win in Week 2, but that came against a FCS school, Indiana State. They barely escaped Western Kentucky at home, 20-17, a game they had zero business winning. Last week on the road was another bad loss as they were blown out by Virginia, 27-3. Their ATS record now stands at 0-4 as they are set to welcome in what is undoubtedly a highly motivated Florida State squad. The Seminoles have had their own unexpected struggles to start the year and come in w/ double revenge after losing to the Cardinals each of the last two seasons. The 'Noles are off their most impressive game to date, a 37-19 win over Northern Illinois, but that's only helped to artificially inflate this line. I'm taking the points. 

Florida State, like Louisville, is just 2-2 w/ one of their wins coming against a FCS school. And just like L'ville against Western Kentucky, Florida State had no business beating Samford. They needed five turnovers in that one to help overcome a fourth quarter deficit. They didn't even take the lead until less than five minutes were left in the game and were still outgained 525-424. Both ACC games have gone very poorly for Willie Taggart's team as they've been blown out by Va Tech and Syracuse by a combined score of 54-10. Remember that Va Tech just lost to Old Dominion last week, so that opening week loss (which came at home!) to the Hokies now looks even worse for FSU. This is Taggart's first year in Talahassee mind you, so he has a honeymoon period. But he's still figuring out what he has and so far it hasn't been very good. 

The last two meetings have seen Louisville cover the spread by 63 points. The last time hosting FSU was a day to remember as Lamar Jackson announced his presence to the nation in a 63-20 annihilation. Last year saw the Cardinals go to Doak Walker and pull a 31-18 upset as six-point dogs. With the former Heisman winner Jackson departed, QB play has been an issue for Louisville, but no more so than turnovers have been for FSU. Takeaway that Samford game and the Noles would be -10 in TO's. Deondre Francois has not looked like the same QB he was before LY's injury and those thinking FSU is just going to be able to "show up" and exact revenge here are in for a rude awakening. 8* Louisville

10* Texas Tech (12:00 ET): Fresh off a bye, West Virginia wasted little time in taking care of Kansas State last Saturday, winning easily in Morgantown 35-6. But that wasn't the only impressive win by a Big XII team last week, nor was it the most impressive. That distinction belongs to Texas Tech going to Stillwater and beating Oklahoma State 41-17 as two-touchdown underdogs. While I'm a little concerned w/ the Red Raiders' record off a conference win the L2 seasons (0-5 SU/1-4 ATS), one thing I'm no longer concerned about in Lubbock in the QB situation. Remember that 47-27 loss to Ole Miss? That's now a distant memory as is McLane Carter, who lost the starting gig to injury. At the time, that injury was thought to derail the Red Raiders' season. But Alan Bowman has stepped in and played far better than Carter probably ever would have.

In his 1st start, Bowman completed 22 of 25 passes for 282 yards in a 77-0 win. Granted, it was against FCS Lamar. But little did we know it would be a harbinger of things to come. The following week saw Bowman & the Red Raiders hang 63 points on Houston. Bowman threw for 605 yards and five touchdowns in that one! Last week, he almost threw for another 400 (397) in the win over OK State. Bowman is now #2 in all of FBS w/ 1,557 passing yards. Don't be surprised if he is the difference maker again this week. WVU has not faced a QB anywhere close to his caliber and thus the backend of the defense will be tested like never before. Texas Tech is #1 in all of FBS in total offense w/ 623.5 YPG. It's a big difference between them and Kansas State, who WVU played last week. Kansas State is second from the bottom in the Big 12 in points per game. 

This game carries special meaning to Texas Tech HC Kliff Kingsbury and the rest of his coaching staff. They've lost four years in a row to West Virginia, coached by Kingsbury's good friend Dana Holgorsen, all as underdogs. Last year, the Red Raiders led 35-17 midway through the 3Q in Morgantown. But they gave up 29 unanswered and didn't even cover the spread (were FG underdogs). The final five drives resulted in a missed field goal, three punts and an INT. Saturday is all about payback and w/ Bowman at the helm, the Red Raiders may finally have the QB to get the job done. I'm taking the points. 10* Texas Tech

8* Minnesota (8:20 ET): The Vikings were on the wrong end an absolute shocker last week, losing as 17-pt home favorites to Buffalo. It wasn't just that they lost to the previously winless Bills though. It was how they lost. Shutout for nearly four quarters, they lost 27-6 to a team that was perceived as easily the worst in the league. Needless to say, when this NFL season is over, there won't be a more head-scratching result. The good news though is the Vikings can quickly atone. The bad news is they'll have to travel out to LA to face the team many consider the best in the league right now, the Rams. But w/ many of the same faces, the Vikings beat the Rams LY 24-7, completely shutting down Jared Goff and company. This time, they'll have to do it on the road, but they're also getting alot of points from the oddsmakers. I'm on the dog, looking to bounce back from an embarrassing defeat. 

The thing about last week was that the Vikings were dead even in total yards w/ the Bills at 292 each. The issue was being -3 in turnovers. Three of the Bills scoring drives were 25 yards or less and that was essentially the difference in the game. A convincing Week 1 victory over the 49ers now seems like a distant memory as the Vikings have since tied and lost. That tie (against the Packers) should have been a win as they missed TWO field goals in overtime and outgained Green Bay 480-351 in total yards and by 2.1 yds on a per play basis. This team (the Vikings) is better than its record shows. 

Meanwhile, the Rams are 3-0 and considered by many to be the best team in the league. They have a +66 point differential that is easily the league's best. But look at who they've played: three teams that are a combined 1-8 SU. They did trail Oakland at the half in Week 1. Arizona is really bad. The Chargers are dealing with a lot of injuries and not at full strength. Speaking of not at full strength, this short week really works against the Rams here as they are going to be w/o numerous players. Two of them are from the high-priced secondary w/ Aqib Talib now out (at least) 8 weeks due to ankle surgery and Marcus Peters (calf) listed as questionable. Even kicker Greg Zuerlein has been ruled out, so field goal kicking could be problematic. Two linebackers and their return man also may not play. Vikings HC Zimmer has been outstanding as a dog and could steal one here. 8* Minnesota

10* Miami FL (8:00 ET): North Carolina was a nice winner for me last Saturday, picking up their first win of the season by upsetting Pitt, 38-35. They were desperate and coming off an unexpected bye due to Hurricane Florence. That was enough to get my endorsement for one week, but it would take a lot more than what the oddsmakers are offering here to get me to take the Tar Heels on the road against Miami. "The U" had its own rough start to the season, getting embarrassed by LSU on national television. But they've since responded w/ three convincing wins, including one last week over Florida International that was a lot more lopsided than the final score of 31-17 indicates. Consider Miami was listed as a 20-pt favorite LY in Chapel Hill. There's actually some real value in laying the points here. 

Last week against FIU, the Hurricanes led 31-0 late in the 4th quarter. All of a sudden, FIU decided to explode in garbage time. They scored 17 points over the final seven minutes, thanks to recovering a fumble and an onside kick. The fumble came from blitzing Miami's third string QB. But the bottom line was that Miami's D held FIU to just seven first downs for the game. At one point, total yardage was 397-10 in favor of the Hurricanes. The discrepancy ended up being 488-187 when all was said and done. I mentioned Miami's third string QB fumbling late (which led to a FIU field goal), but it was actually the backup that made headlines. Freshman N'Kosi Perry came off the bench for the team's third possession of the game, immediately led two TD drives and ended up w/ 3 TD in just over two quarters of play. I expect Perry to be the starter moving forward even though Malik Rosier has won plenty of games for HC Mark Richt.

North Carolina now has its own QB issue to deal with as sophomore Chazz Surratt is now eligible to return from suspension (as are several other players). But it's still likely to be junior Nathan Elliott under center given the offense scored 38 pts and gained 486 yards last week. But recall UNC's first two games of the season, both on the road and both losses, where they scored just 36 points total. Miami has a huge defensive edge in this contest having allowed more than 300 yds in just 1 of 4 games while UNC has allowed 41 and 35 pts its last two games to East Carolina and Pitt. Miami has also traditionally been very strong in these Thursday night home games. 10* Miami FL

8* Pittsburgh (8:15 ET): Of the four NFL teams that remain winless, the Steelers are certainly the biggest surprise to be counted among them. Now there is a caveat in that they tied the Browns, but the fact is that the Steelers were favored in both games. They had to overcome a -5 turnover margin just to tie the Browns in Week 1, but the truth is they largely outplayed Cleveland in that contest, outgaining them by 145 total yards. Last week saw them roll up 37 points, 475 total yds and not turn the ball over once - at home - and they still lost to the Chiefs. While they haven't been able to "put it all together" quite yet, because of that I feel tonight is the ultimate "buy low" scenario on Pittsburgh. I'll play against the line move and take them here in a virtual "must-win" spot. 

Tampa Bay is 2-0 and it's safe to say no one expected that considering they opened w/ the Saints and the Eagles. This game makes it three straight opponents that won their division last year and the Bucs have had to do it w/o their starting QB Jameis Winston. Then again, maybe that's why they are 2-0. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been one of the biggest stories in the league thus far, becoming the first QB in league HISTORY to open a season w/ B2B 400+ yard, 4 TD passing days. Considering what the Steelers just gave up to Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City, this would seem like an ideal matchup for Fitzpatrick and the Bucs. However, are we really sure Fitzpatrick and TB are going to be able to sustain this kind of production? Remember, I took them in Week 1 at New Orleans. But I have been stunned how good this offense has looked so far. 

It's rare to see the Steelers falling out of favor w/ the public. That probably has a lot to do w/ the fact that WR Antonio Brown has been so vocal with his criticism of the team. I suspect Brown is going to have a big game here as you have to remember that the TB defense gave up 40 points itself in Week 1 and has allowed 400+ yards in both games so far. To me, I don't think we've seen a true representation of either team here in 2018. The Steelers are better than they've played and the Bucs are due to "come back down to Earth." Over the last four years, there's been only one time the Steelers went winless for a stretch of at least three games. 8* Pittsburgh

8* Arizona (4:05 ET): The Steve Wilks era in Arizona has gotten off to a pretty disastrous start as the team has been outscored 58-6 w/ the lone scoring coming in garbage time in Week 1. As bad as that sounds, I see some real value on the Cardinals this week. They are catching Chicago on a short week, off an emotional home victory over Seattle (1st of Matt Nagy era). The Bears probably should be 2-0 as they had Green Bay "dead to rights" in the opener before falling victim to Aaron Rodgers (still covered though). While I'm 2-0 ATS taking the Bears this season, this is a rare instance of them being a road favorite and I'm not about to start trusting them in that role just yet. Take the points. 

It's going to be real difficult to sugarcoat Arizona's performances through the first two games. They have both been bad. Last week in particular as they gained just 137 total yards and did not run a play on the Rams' side of the field until the final play of the GAME. It's been almost 12 years since a team failed to cross midfield in a NFL game, so it was a historically bad effort. I suppose the Cardinals could do what the Browns did Thursday night and throw their own rookie QB (Josh Rosen) out there. I wouldn't disagree w/ such a move and if it came late in the game (meaning Cards are behind), the backdoor could at least be open w/ a Rosen spark. But also remember that Cleveland only changed QB's due to injury. Bottom line is I expect a far better effort out of Arizona at home this week. 

I think that it's also important that we not overrate Chicago. I say this as someone who considers them a darkhorse playoff candidate in the NFC. But looking at them right now, I don't see them as being ready to blow teams out on the road, even one as lowly as Arizona. It's pretty clear that the Chicago offense, specifically QB Mitchell Trubisky, has issues. First year HC Matt Nagy is doing a great job of scripting the offense's plays early, but after the 1st quarter, production goes in the tank. Over the final three quarters of the first two games, the Bears are averaging just about 3.5 yards per play. So Arizona is going to be able to hang around here in what should be a pretty low-scoring game. Going back to the 2014 season, the Bears have been road favorites just once (Wk 10 of '16 at Tampa Bay) and they lost that game outright, 36-10. 8* Arizona

8* Oakland (1:00 ET): Jon Gruden's return to the Raiders is not going as planned as two poor second half showings have the team at 0-2. Last week's loss to Denver seems somewhat improbable when you consider QB Derek Carr completed 90% of his pass attempts, becoming the first player in NFL HISTORY to do so in a game where he had at least 27 attempts! Carr wasn't just "dinking and dunking" either as he threw for 288 yards. But it marked the second straight game where the Silver & Black failed to hold a halftime lead. A blocked XP ended up "biting them in the rear" as they lost the game 20-19 w/ the Broncos kicking a last second field goal. While many Raiders fans are disappointed w/ the team being 0-2, you have to remember they were underdogs in both games. 

They're underdogs again this week, but given the desperate circumstances, I'm not sure they should be. Far more surprising than Oakland being 0-2 is Miami being 2-0. The Dolphins have played well in both games as well, though it should be noted they faced the Titans and the Jets. Put a bit of an asterisk next to that Week 1 win at Tennessee as play was suspended multiple times due to weather and Tennessee lost QB Marcus Mariota early. Last week, they were actually outgained 362-257 by the Jets, only to feast on three turnovers. Two of Miami's three touchdown drives started on the Jets' side of the field, one of them at the 15-yard line. I'm still not sold on QB Ryan Tannehill as anything special and this just has the feel of a "trap game" for the Fish.

Last year, Oakland came to Miami and won 27-24 as three-point favorites. I'm not sure enough has changed in a year's time to justify such a price swing. Say what you will about the Raiders, but they've gone 11-5 ATS the L3 seasons in games where the line is three points or less, including 4-2 as a road underdog. Gruden is doing good things w/ this offense as it currently ranks 6th in the league at 6.2 yards per play. Was it stupid to trade Khalil Mack, right before the season? Absolutely. Especially considering the lack of pass rush. Fortunately, Tannehill has been knocked around a lot the first two games. I just don't like Miami as a favorite in this spot. Will they be better than last year? Probably. But it's hard to see this team starting 3-0. Or the Raiders starting 0-3, for that matter. 8* Oakland

10* Washington (1:00 ET): Facing Indianapolis and winning the battle of turnovers and total yards, the Redskins still found a way to lose by DOUBLE DIGITS last week at home. It was a disappointing effort all-around as their offense had to settle for three field goals while the Colts scored three touchdowns. Interesting though is that outside of Indy's three TD drives (all of which went for exactly 75 yards), they gained just 56 yards the rest of the game. Talk about opportunistic football. Speaking of opportunistic, the Packers should thank their lucky stars that they were able to escape w/ a tie LW vs. Minnesota. Yes, there was the bogus roughing the passer penalty on Clay Matthews. But Green Bay was outgained 480-351 in total yardage, including a stunning 2.1 yards per play! The Vikings also missed two kicks in overtime, not to mention had a blocked punt returned for a touchdown. 

So Washington is now back in a more customary role of underdog this week and I like them at home. It's tough to put a ton of stock into the Week 1 victory at Arizona now that we have a better understanding just how bad the Cardinals are. A huge difference between Weeks 1 and 2 was how the Redskins ran the ball. Against Arizona, they ran the ball 42 times for 182 yards. Against Indianapolis, they ran it only 22 times (got down early) for just 65 yards. We should see a performance that lies "somewhere in between" this week. I also expect better performance on both third downs and in the red zone, on both sides of the ball, this week. Those two areas really cost them against the Colts. 

Remember that Green Bay should probably be 0-2 right now. They trailed Chicago 20-0 at home before Aaron Rodgers turned in an amazing come from behind effort to steal one. Rodgers is clearly still hurting and this is going to be a lingering issue the rest of the season. He isn't practicing much because of the knee and there is some (legit) concern that it will worsen if he continues playing on it. Another legit concern w/ this offense is the non-existent running game. Through two games, the Pack have just 167 yds rushing, which is near the bottom of the league. This team is only 1-3 ATS as a road favorite of a field goal or less the last three seasons w/ three outright losses. If the Redskins can generate pressure on Rodgers Sunday, then this should be a relatively easy upset. 10* Washington

8* Utah State (10:15 ET): I've been really impressed w/ Utah State this season. After taking Michigan State to the wire in the season opener, but coming up just short, they easily could have folded. Instead, it's been quite the opposite. The last two weeks have seen the Aggies win by scores of 60-13 and 73-12. Now the opponents were New Mexico State and Tennessee Tech, one of the worst FBS teams and a FCS team, respectively. But the Michigan State game (38-31 loss as 23.5-pt dogs) showed this team can compete w/ anybody. They certainly won't be lacking for motivation this week as they open Mountain West play against Air Force. The Flyboys have beaten USU three straight years, all of the games decided by seven points or less. This year, it's the Aggies turn. Lay it. 

Air Force pulled out a miraculous cover in its last game, a 33-27 loss at Florida Atlantic. I had them. A blocked punt in the final minute, which was returned for a touchdown, is what got the Falcons the cover as 9.5-pt dogs. They trailed the entire game, much of it by double digits. The defense allowed 525 yards, much of it through the air as FAU QB Chris Robison (a freshman) completed 33 of 40 pass attempts for a school record 471 yards. Keep in mind that was an Owls team that had just been humiliated the prior week at Oklahoma. I was disappointed w/ the AFA offense even though they still ran for 200+ yards. The team is off a bye, but Utah State has also had extra time to prepare as the game vs. Tennessee Tech took place last Thursday. 

Other than the two wins over the Aggies, Air Force is just 2-12 ATS in conference play the last two seasons. Last year, these teams met in the regular season finale out in Colorado Springs. Utah State blew a double-digit lead, giving up the game-winning TD w/ just over 90 seconds to go. Despite losing 38-35, the Aggies held a 521-440 edge in total yds. This year's team is even better as evidenced by the last two weeks when they put up 60+ pts in B2B games for the 1st time in school history. Last week saw them run for seven touchdowns. Logan should be rocking Saturday night and I expect the Aggies to assert themselves early and often in this one. 8* Utah State 

10* East Carolina (8:00 ET): East Carolina has had two fascinating results so far. They lost to a FCS school, North Carolina A&T, 28-23. The following week saw them bounce back w/ a stunning 41-19 win over North Carolina where they were 15-pt home dogs. Last week, they had an unexpected bye due to Hurricane Florence as the scheduled game vs. Virginia Tech was cancelled. This has not been a good ATS team under Scottie Montgomery, particularly on the road, but this week finds them taking a generous number. This is certainly Montgomery's best team in his three years here. Do I think we'll be seeing another huge upset from them? No. But I do think the Pirats cover comfortably. Take the points. 

South Florida is 3-0, but has had to come from behind to win each of the last two games. A 49-38 home win over Georgia Tech might seem "comfortable," but USF was down with five minutes left in the game. Their defense also gave up 600+ yards. Last week saw the Bulls score the game's final 18 pts (all in the 4Q) in a 25-19 win. This time, it was they who gained 600+ total yards, but they didn't go ahead until the final two minutes. Outside of the 34-14 win over Elon in the season opener, it's hardly been a dominant 3-0 for USF.

ECU has to run the ball the way they did vs. North Carolina when they ran for 220 yards. South Florida's run defense has been very leaky, giving up 274 YPG. Yes, that has a lot to do w/ playing Georgia Tech, but they also allowed 200+ last week. The Pirates have not fared well in this AAC rivalry, losing the last three meetings. They are actually 0-6 ATS vs. USF dating back to '04. But the last time here was an all-time bad beat w/ two late USF touchdowns after ECU actually pulled within two late (and had a chance at a two-point conversion). This is a big spread and at worst the backdoor will be open for the Pirates. 10* East Carolina 

10* Texas (4:30 ET): Maybe things are going to be alright in Austin for Tom Herman. The season started w/ a bad 34-29 loss to Maryland (a revenge game for the Longhorns) and then a ho-hum 28-21 win over Tulsa. They did lead Tulsa 21-0 early, but the end result had plenty of whispers and doubt about the team moving forward. Then came a statement win over USC last Saturday night. The 37-14 win is definitely a little misleading when you consider the 'Horns trailed 14-3 after the first quarter. Things took a dramatic swing in the third when, up 23-14, Texas returned a blocked field goal for a TD. Nevertheless, it goes down in the record books as a top 25 win for a program that desperately needed it. This week, I'll take the points. 

TCU is off a hard-fought loss to Ohio State. The Horned Frogs looked every bit the equal of the Buckeyes for four quarters last week as total yardage was basically even (526-511 OSU), but the key was three TCU turnovers. Two of those were directly converted into touchdowns, one a fumble recovery in the end zone, the other a pick-six. Hence the 40-28 finale, but TCU still did manage to just sneak inside the number. The week prior saw them fall behind SMU early, only to rally back for a comfortable win of their own thanks to multiple non-offensive scores. So as you can see, turnovers work both ways. I think it's going to be incredibly tough here for TCU to "get back up" following a high-profile loss where they feel they should have been a lot closer or even won outright. 

Texas has gone just 1-5 SU vs. TCU as Big 12 rivals, including four consecutive losses. None of those four have been even close. We're talking losses by 38, 43, 22 and 17 points. That's an average margin of 30 PPG. As bad as the matchup has been for the Longhorns, the situation was just as bad last season. They were traveling for the third time in four weeks (and held to a season-low in total yards). This year, it's a third consecutive home game. Technically, TCU is playing for a third consecutive week away from home. (Last week's game was in Arlington). Herman has been a HC for four years (two here, two in Houston) and while he is 5-13-1 ATS as a home favorite, he's a perfect 3-0 ATS as a dog. The Lognhorns defense held USC to -5 rushing yards last week and will be ready to deliver Herman another big win. 10* Texas 

8* Va Tech (3:30 ET): The Hokies opened their season w/ a 24-3 win at Florida State (I was on them). That win might not seem as impressive now (FSU stinks), but it was a conference road win nonetheless. Week 2 was even easier for Justin Fuente's team as they blew out FCS William & Mary, 62-17. They were supposed to play last week East Carolina in Blacksburg last Saturday, but that was cancelled due to Hurricane Florence. Florence also reaked havoc on this week's opponent, Old Dominion, whose game vs. Charlotte was moved to Thursday. The Monarchs lost 28-25 to a team that won just one game LY. ODU has been one of the biggest ATS underachievers so far as they are 0-3 SU/ATS, missing the spread by a cummulative 56.5 points. It's a big number here, but like Mississippi State last week, I'm willing to lay it. 

The spread for every ODU game this year has five points or less and they've been favored twice. Yet, they are 0-3. Their biggest miss when it came to the pointspread was clearly the season opener at Liberty. Even though they were facing an opponent making its FBS debut, the Monarchs went down 52-10 and were outgained 591-301 in the process! They may never live that one down. This will be by far their toughest opponent to date and probably all year. Given losses to Liberty, FIU and Charlotte, that doesn't bode well. They faced the Hokies LY and lost 38-0 in Blacksburg. The spread here is actually larger, but that's justifiable considering Va Tech looks better while ODU looks worse. 

Virginia Tech coming in off a bye does ODU no favors here. Playing with a week or more of rest, the Hokies have gone 3-1 ATS the previous two seasons. This being such a short road trip, expect the Hokies to have plenty of fan support Saturday and this will "feel" like a home game. Even having to replace eight starters from last year, Bud Foster's defense appears as if it will just fine. They've allowed just 128 rushing yds in two games. Were it not for three big plays, they'd have allowed far fewer total yds as well. This week they'll be facing a young QB who's completing just 51.2 percent of his pass attempts. Virginia Tech's offense seems revitalized w/ new contributors at the skill positions. RB Deshawn McClease is averaging 4.9 yards per carry. QB Josh Jackson is in his second year as a starter and looks a lot more comfortable. This one won't be close. 8* Va Tech

8* North Carolina (12:20 ET): To say the Tar Heels are a desperate team entering their third game of the season would be putting it mildly. Larry Fedora's team is 0-2 SU and off a bye. You have to remember that it was not the best offseason in Chapel Hill. Fedora has some questionable commenatary on CTE. Then 13 players were suspended for selling Nike gear. The latter has certainly has had more impact than the former, but there's no denying that something is awry w/ this program right now. Was losing the opener at Cal acceptable? Sure, they were seven-point underdogs and that was the final margin (24-17). But a 41-19 loss at East Carolina (as 15-pt chalk!) was a clear step in the WRONG direction. Last week's game vs. UCF had to be cancelled due to Hurricane Florence, so I expect the Tar Heels to come out HIGHLY motivated as a home dog this week. Take the points. 

Pitt was a home dog itself last week and pulled the outright upset over Georgia Tech. It was a much needed bounce back for Pat Narduzzi's team after getting walloped by Penn State, 51-6, the week prior. This will be the Panthers' first road game of the year and they were just 1-4 SU away from Heinz Field last season. They were slightly outgained by Ga Tech last week, but did lead comfortably (as in 24-6) heading into the 4th quarter. But again, that was at home. It was a yeoman's effort defensively LW holding Ga Tech to five plays or less on six of the first seven drives. But they also got a big break early, thanks to some questionable decision making by Yellow Jackets' HC Paul Johnson, who elected to run a fake punt from his own 28-yard line. It was stuffed and Pitt responded w/ its second TD of the game, thanks to the short field. The game was basically "in the bag" at that point.

Since joining the ACC, Pitt has never beaten North Carolina. They are 0-5 SU, though all five losses have been by a TD or less. I do think the bye is huge for North Carolina. Yes, they are still dealing with suspensions plus the issues as a result of Florence. But I suspect Fedora is going to have his players ready for Saturday in an emotional spot. Pitt really delivered w/ its own "back against the wall" last week, but it will be very challenging to duplicate that kind of performance on the road. Consider that the Panthers are just 3-8 ATS when favored the L3 seasons. 8* North Carolina 

8* Kent State (12:00 ET): Both of these teams gave up 60+ points to top 10 teams last week. One is now being asked to lay four touchdowns. Obviously, there's a massive talent gap that exists between Kent State and Ole Miss, but consider the former actually hung w/ Penn State for about a half before the inevitable took place. It was actually the second time this year the Golden Flashes have had to play a Big 10 team on the road. They covered the first, at Illinois. While 0-5 SU/1-4 ATS vs. SEC schools, Kent State is catching Ole Miss at the right time. The Rebels were flat out embarrassed last week, here at home, losing to Alabama 62-7. Make no mistake about it; the Rebels' pysche was severely wounded by that result and they won't be "up" for this game, which comes right in between Bama & LSU. Take the points. 

Kent State was tied w/ Penn State early on last Saturday, 7-7, midway through the first quarter. It was only 21-10 late in the second when the Nittany Lions tacked on another TD right before halftime. That drive started w/ a long kick return after a Kent State field goal. The second half was all Penn State. Still, this offense is much improved from LY when it averaged just 12.8 PPG, which was second fewest in the country. That's owed to 1st year HC Sean Lewis, who was the former OC at Syracuse at Dino Babers, and that means the offense is going to play "fast." Consider the Ole Miss' defense is giving up 43.3 points and 544 yards per game. Before you go thinking that's heavily skewed by Alabama, consider the Rebels gave up more yards to Southern Illinois (629!) the week prior, not to mention 41 points. 

Remember that Ole Miss still is facing a bowl ban from the disgraced Huge Freeze era. So motivation is going to be a big question all year w/ this team. I thought HC Matt Luke did an admirable job in guiding this team to a 6-6 record last year (his 1st on the job), but the 2018 version of the Rebels is going to struggle as they figure to be a dog in every SEC game. They still have LA Monroe on the schedule, so this probably won't be their last victory. But it'll be closer than the "experts" think. Consider Ole Miss was down 49-7 at the half (at home) last week. Those thinking it will be an easy bounce back are likely to be disappointed. 8* Kent State

8* SMU (12:00 ET): SMU has had to play two very good teams the last two weeks, TCU and Michigan (both ranked in the top 20). For at least a half, the Ponies played both tough. After a long weather delay, they jumped out to a 9-0 lead on TCU. They only trailed 14-12 at the half, but from there it was all Horned Frogs, who scored the game's final 28 points. Keep in mind though that TCU scored three non-offensive TD's in the contest, somewhat robbing SMU of the cover as 23.5-pt dogs. The Mustangs did cover last week, at Michigan, as they were getting 36.5 from the oddsmakers. It was only a 15-pt game early in the 4Q, but still SMU found a way to lose a third straight game by 20 or more. Back as a home dog this week, I like them to cover. Take the points. 

Navy's last venture as a road favorite did not go well at all as they lost outright to Hawaii, 59-41. They were 13.5-pt chalk in that contest. They've since bounced back w/ a pair of wins over Memphis and Lehigh, but neither was very impressive. The win over Memphis was a come from behind effort that saw the Middies rally from down 21-9 to pick up an outright win as a 6.5-pt home dog. They scored two touchdowns in the fourth quarter, the game-winning one coming w/ just 2:37 left on the clock. Navy was outgained in the contest, but clearly benefited from a +3 TO margin and massive edge in time of possession. There was also a driving rain during the game that played to their strength (running the ball!) on offense. Last week's win came against FCS Lehigh, who turned it over five times. 

Looking at this week's forecast, it appears as if rain is all but assured. But don't think that means Navy will be able to take advantage again. Yes, SMU has lost to Navy eight straight times, including a 75-31 debacle the last time here in Dallas (two years ago). But last year was a lot closer (SMU lost 43-40 in Annapolis) as the Ponies rallied back from a 34-11 deficit, only to come up just short. One thing to keep an eye on here is the SMU defense, which ranks top 25 nationally in tackles for loss. That's key when facing the triple option. SMU comes in 0-3 SU, so they're a desperate home dog here and when desperate is often the best time to take a home dog. They've actually played three good teams (North Texas too) and a pretty easy case can be made that Navy is the weakest opponent they have faced so far. 8* SMU

10* USC (10:30 ET): If you're into treating teams like stocks, this is a REAL "buy low" spot on Southern Cal. The Trojans have lost B2B games and are laying just a short number in a revenge game. Both losses have come in primetime, national TV games, so the public has certainly soured on them. The USC offense has managed just 17 total points the last two games while averaging 324.5 yards game behind freshman QB JT Daniels. But both of those losses took place on the road. Clay Helton's team has won 12 straight PAC 12 home games and is 25-7 SU their L32. I realize the Washington State defense is seemingly improved, but you have to factor in the opposition when looking at their numbers. USC's defense just held Texas to a 45.5 completion percentage and 3.3 yards per carry. I'll lay the points.

So Wazzu is 3-0, both SU and ATS. But they've played Wyoming (who was on a short week), San Jose State (very bad) and Eastern Washington (FCS team). So take this "defensive improvement" w/ a grain of salt. Yes, last year's defense was the best of the Mike Leach era, but they lost an All-American in Hercules Mata'afa. That Wyoming team the Cougars beat has scored a total of just 49 points its last three games and needed a late TD to get by Wofford (FCS team) last week. San Jose State is 0-3 and one of the worst teams in FCS, including a loss to a FCS school (UC Davis). So this will be a considerable step up in class for a Washington State team that has just one win at the Coliseum this millenium.

Last year's game saw Washington State beat a Top 5 team for the first time since 1992. It was a 30-27 upset (as four-point dogs) and also on a Friday night. Notable is that USC was down THREE starting offensive linemen for that game and also coming in unbeaten following WINS over Stanford and Texas. This script has totally been flipped this year. The Trojans did lose by 23 last week in Austin, but they were only down 9 when a blocked field goal was returned for a touchdown. Like I said, the defense played well. This is basically a "must win" for Helton, which of course does not guarantee victory, but I think he will and cover comfortably. 10* USC

10* Cleveland (8:20 ET): Some are reporting this as the 1st time the Browns have been favored in the Hue Jackson era. For the record, my notes show they actually closed as a one-point favorite against Indianapolis (on the road!) Week 3 of last season. (They obviously lost). Nevertheless, this is a rather monumental occurrence in Cleveland. It's also a must win. I probably don't need to tell you that it's 19 consecutive regular season losses and counting w/ Jackson's overall record as Browns' HC now 1-33 SU. But despite all the calls for rookie QB Baker Mayfield to start and the general incompetence that comes along w/ this team, they SHOULD be 2-0 this year. Thursday night, they get a home game against the Jets. There's a good chance Jackson is coaching for his job here. 

Week 1 saw the Browns infamously tie the Steelers, 21-21. They missed a field goal at the end of overtime and won the turnover battle by five. You may have heard this already, but since the Browns returned to the league (1999), teams that win the TO battle by 5+ are 132-4-1 SU. This being the Browns, they have accounted for two of the four losses and obviously the tie. As unbelievable as that result was, the Browns also SHOULD have won in New Orleans in Week 2. They outgained the Saints 327-275 and led 12-3 going into the fourth quarter. After giving up two touchdowns to fall behind 18-12 (Saints made a 2-pt conversion), the Browns answered w/ a TD of their own (w/ just 1:16 remaining) and appeared poised to snap the win streak. Problem is kicker Zane Gonzales missed his SECOND XP of the game! The Saints then marched down for the GW FG. Only Cleveland actually had a chance to tie, but Gonzalez missed again (Note: he's since been waived).

Clearly, there's nothing wrong w/ this Browns defense, which has held the Steelers and Saints to just 21 points apiece. The offense does lack playmakers, particularly in the wake of the Josh Gordon trade. But I believe they have enough to outscore the Jets. New York was the "toast of the town" after Week 1 when they went to Detroit and won 48-17 as seven-point dogs. Of course, the final difference was the direct result of a 31-point third quarter where the Flyboys scored two non-offensive touchdowns. Sam Darnold, the Jets' own rookie QB, has three interceptions now in two games. His first pass attempt of the regular season was infamously returned for a TD by Detroit, then he threw two more in last week's 20-12 home loss to Miami. The offense was shutout in the 1st half and I have no idea why Darnold was asked to throw 41 times. If the Browns don't win this game, they should probably just fold the team. 10* Cleveland 

10* Chicago (8:15 ET): Though the results were the same for both of these teams in Week 1 (close loss), I view the respective franchises as trending in very different directions in 2018. The Bears lost a heartbreaker last Sunday, blowing a 20-0 lead against rival Green Bay. You may have heard that Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is a big-time difference maker in this league. Rodgers got injured in the 1st half and that's when the Bears did almost all of their damage, including the newly acquired Khalil Mack returning a DeShone Kizer INT for a touchdown. But then Rodgers came back and the rest is history. Still, I came away impressed w/ the Bears' overall performance in what was a wire to wire cover. I took them plus the points in Week 1 and will lay the points w/ them in Week 2. 

Seattle lost its opener, also on the road, by a field goal at Denver. Don't let that close result fool you, however. The Seahawks are on the decline w/ most of the core players from the team's "glory years" having moved on. It's very much now Russell Wilson's team, but he's surrounded w/ a weak supporting cast and his offensive line is among the very worst in the league. Last week, Denver's Von Miller sacked Wilson three times himself and forced two fumbles. Now imagine what Mack and company will do here. I'm scratching my head as to how the Seahawks were able to keep things close last week, considering they were outgained 470-305 and had 12 fewer first downs (25-13). On Saturday, three Seahawks were ruled out for this game: WR Doug Baldwin, LB Bobby Wagner and LB K.J. Wright. Things have gotten so dire that the team has decided to sign Mychal Kendricks, a linebacker who was just released by the Browns in disgrace due to being charged w/ insider trading. As many as six Seattle starters could miss this game as three others (in addition to the three listed above) are questionable. This is no longer a good team, folks. 

I wasn't totally impressed w/ 1st year HC Matt Nagy's decision making in the second half last week. But the Bears' new coach is still an upgrade over "behind the times" John Fox, who went 1-5 SU and ATS as a favorite in his time in the Windy City. Most of my key indicators are pointing up for the Bears this season and I think they're a lock to improve on last year's 5-win total. They can't afford a second straight primetime loss. Look for Nagy to pick up his first win as a HC here. 10* Chicago 

8* Washington (1:00 ET): In retrospect, the Redskins finishing just 7-9 SU last year shouldn't have been that surprising. Not only was the team hit hard by injuries, they were favored six times. Five of those six times came in the final six weeks. So they were favored just once in the first 10 games. They won't have to wait nearly as long to find themselves in the chalk role this season, however, thanks to the fact they are coming off a very impressive 24-6 win at Arizona in the season opener. Meanwhile, even though Andrew Luck is back, Indianapolis showed they still have a lot of work to do after losing their season opener at home to the Bengals. The Colts' defense gave up a frightening 6.6 yards per play in Week 1 and a Washington offense that averaged over 6.0 YPP itself in Week 1 should take full advantage this week. I'm laying the points.

Obviously, because of the respective Week 1 performances this line has been adjusted. The lookahead line had the Redskins favored by three, but it wasn't high enough then and it's not high enough now. When favored last year, the 'Skins went 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS. But they won all four times they were favored here in D.C., the lone non-cover coming when they were asked to lay double digits. The big difference between this year and last is the QB situation. Kirk Cousins has been replaced by Alex Smith and that will almost certainly lead to fewer turnovers. At RB, Adrian Peterson stunned me w/ a 96-yard Wk 1 performance, but don't discount Chris Thompson as he had 128 total yards from scrimmage.  The defense allowed just 213 yards and while the Cardinals' offense isn't exactly good, neither is the Colts'. It seems to me that a lot of folks might be sleeping on this Washington team right now. 

Andrew Luck might be back, but the rest of the Colts roster looks to be in pretty poor shape. A case can be made that they have the worst secondary in the league and the linebacking group is weak on the interior. Luck also doesn't have a lot of help at the skill positions, especially running back. That's why he had to throw 53 times last week. It was an all-too familiar story for Colts' fans in Week 1 as they blew a double digit lead and were outscored 17-0 in the fourth quarter. That was a recurring theme last year and I'll look for the Redskins to wear them down over the course of the game and earn a relatively easy win and cover. 8* Washington 

10* Pittsburgh (1:00 ET): I get the feeling that most bettors are going to be on the underdog here. The Chiefs couldn't have asked for a better start to the Patrick Mahomes era as they went out to LA and whipped the Chargers, 38-28. Meanwhile, the error-prone Steelers (six turnovers) had to settle for a 21-21 tie w/ the lowly Browns. But this game is at Heinz Field where Pittsburgh has performed quite well through the years against everyone in the league not named "New England." Over the past four seasons, the Black & Gold have gone 12-5 SU at home vs. opponents w/ a .500 or better record. That's the second best mark in the league. They've had Kansas City's number in particular, winning all three matchups over the past two seasons. It'll be more of the same in Week 2. Lay the points. 

Tying the Browns might seem like an embarrassing way to start the season, but Pittsburgh should be happy to take it and move on. They turned the ball over SIX times and as you've probably seen by now, teams that lose the TO battle by five or more have gone 4-132-1 since 1999. Despite a torrential downpour and no LeVeon Bell, the Steelers still moved the ball last week to the tune of 472 total yards. They outgained Cleveland 472-327. I see the Steelers having no issues moving the ball again this week against a Chiefs' defense that is worse than the Browns and suspect at best. KC allowed the Chargers to gain over 500 total yards last week (541 to be exact) and I think there are going to be a lot of long Sunday afternoons for this stop unit. Week 2 should be one of them. The Steelers were the second highest scoring home team in the league last season, at 29.8 PPG, trailing only New Orleans. 

The last two seasons have seen the Chiefs lose to the Steelers three times. In all three games, their offense was held to 16 pts or fewer. Now, that was w/ Alex Smith at QB. Mahomes certainly appears to have a "higher upside" than Smith, particularly w/ the all the weapons surrounding him. But don't discount the likelihood that the Chiefs' lofty turnover margin of the previous three seasons (+45!) will take a significant hit w/ Mahomes at QB. They didn't turn the ball over at all last week, but the Chargers were busy displaying their usual brand of incompetence. One the Chiefs' TD drives started on the two-yard line and they got another score from special teams. Meanwhile, I can't look past the fact that their defense surrendered so many yards as well as 33 first downs. Love the Steelers in this spot. 10* Pittsburgh 

8* Fresno State (10:30 ET): It has not been a great return to College Football for Chip Kelly at UCLA. Last week's blowout loss at Oklahoma was to be expected. But considering they barely covered a 30-point spread (scored late TD), that should tell you all you need to know about the current state of this once proud program. There was also the embarrassing showing in the season opener, a 26-17 home loss to Cincinnati where they were favored to win by double digits. That game saw a freshman QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson pressed into duty when grad transfer Wilton Speight (from Michigan) was injured. Speight didn't play against Oklahoma and his status for this Saturday night vs. Fresno State is unclear. But what is clear is that Chip Kelly's team simply is not very good right now. 

Fresno State was one of the unheralded stories in all of College Football last season. They went from 1-11 SU to 10-4 SU in Jeff Tedford's first season at the helm. They are expected to regress some this year and did lose last week at Minnesota. But that game wasn't decided until the final minutes when a halfback pass resulted in an INT in the endzone. Fresno State even led, on the road, in the fourth quarter. It's a much weaker defense they're going up against this week, one that was horrible at stopping the run last year (worst in the country) and not showing much improvement in that department so far this year (186.5 YPG allowed). Fresno State's inability to run the ball last week (just 87 yds) really hurt them, but they did run for 239 yds in the opener vs. Idaho. Look for better success running the ball in this game, at least compared to last week. 

With Tedford and Kelly patrolling the respective sidelines, this will at least have the "feel" of a Pac 12 style game when these two used to match up at Cal and Oregon. But it's Tedford who has a team that more closely resembles the "good old days." Kelly has a lot to sort through here in Westwood and seems determined to play a lot of his own recruits, even if they aren't really ready. I anticipate some real "growing pains" w/ this Bruins squad and those thinking an 0-2 home team is a lock to win are being far too optimistic. Fresno State is 19-7 ATS the L3 seasons while UCLA is just 9-18 ATS. Eventually, the Bruins will get better, but it won't be during this game or maybe even this season. 8* Fresno State