8* NY Jets (1:00 ET): Just hold your nose and take the points. At 0-6 SU/ATS, the Jets are obviously awful and considered by just about everybody to be the worst team in the league. But also, it’s been 22 years since a team opened 0-7 SU/ATS. That’s happened only three times in the Super Bowl era. The most consecutive ATS losses to open a season was 8 (by the ‘03 Raiders), so eventually a ticket is going to cash for the Flyboys. With Sam Darnold now set to return, why not this week? This is a ton of points to be getting at home.

It’s not just about how many points the Jets are getting here, though I should point out my own power rankings say anything above 8.5 is a solid value. Buffalo is also in a terrible situation as it will be playing its third game in a 12-day span. This is the second week in a row they are on short rest. Last Monday, they came out sluggish against the Chiefs and ended up losing 26-17. It was the second straight game where they were held to 17 pts or less. While those games were against two of the AFC’s best, I’ll reiterate something I said last week & that’s I am not as high on the Bills as others seem to be. 

The Bills have a negative scoring differential on the year (-12). In addition to Darnold’s likely return, the Jets are expected to be healthy at WR for the 1st time all season. Rookie Denzel Mims is set to make his debut. He and Breshad Perriman form a pretty decent duo for Darnold to throw to. For the record, if for some reason Darnold does NOT take the field, this play still stands. Getting back to the situation for Buffalo, not only are they on short rest for a second straight week, they’ve got the Patriots on deck. The Jets have held four of six opponents below 250 yds passing and Bills QB Allen has looked suspect in the L2 games. 8* NY Jets

8* West Virginia (5:30 ET): The Mountaineers have traditionally excelled as favorites, at least the few seasons they have. They are 11-2 SU and 8-3 ATS in the role the L3 seasons, which includes last week’s push against Kansas where they were laying 21 points. The number is a lot more manageable this week, though WVU is on the road. But Texas Tech has really struggled in the early going and as mentioned in the Oklahoma State writeup, favorites of 4 pts or less are 20-9 ATS this season. Lay this short number as well. 

Really, Texas Tech’s “best” performance of the year came in a 63-56 overtime loss to Texas here in Lubbock. They blew a double digit 4Q lead in that one and ever since then it’s been all downhill. The Red Raiders lost 31-21 at Kansas State and then 31-15 at Iowa State two weeks ago. Their only victory of the season was against FCS Houston Baptist and even then the defense surrendered 600 total yards and needed to stop a 2-pt conversion to seal an ugly 35-33 win. Henry Colombi, a Utah State transfer that followed HC Matt Wells to Lubbock, is going to be making his first career start here. 

West Virginia’s defense has been tremendous this season as it is allowing 240.3 total yards per game and only 4.05 yards per play. They played a lot better in their only loss, 27-13 at Oklahoma State, than the final score shows. On offense, the Mountaineers are running the ball a lot better than they did a year ago, averaging almost 190 YPG behind Leddie Brown. Texas Tech’s defense has just been wretched, giving up almost 500 YPG and allowing all four opponents to score at least 31 pts. 8* West Virginia

8* Boston College (4:00 ET): Here’s another short number that has me a bit perplexed. Georgia Tech just got annihilated by Clemson last week, losing 73-7. Little is expected from the Yellow Jackets this season. Obviously, last week will be as “bad as it gets,” but I don’t think Boston College will have much problem winning this game in Chapel Hill. While they too were on the wrong end of a blowout last Saturday (40-14 vs. Va Tech), that result can easily be explained by the fact the Eagles turned it over five times. Lay the points here. 

Georgia Tech has two wins, both upsets, but neither are as impressive as they looked at the time. Opening the season with a 16-13 win at Florida State certainly turned some heads, but FSU was a much different team back then and still is nowhere as good as many thought they’d be. Two weeks ago, on a Friday night, the Yellow Jackets upset Louisville 46-27 in Atlanta. But they were actually outgained and a +3 TO margin was the story there. The other three games have seen GT get outscored 159-48. Yes, most of that was Clemson. But the Yellow Jackets also gave up 37 points to Syracuse. 

Boston College also has a couple of upset wins on its resume, theirs coming at the expense of Duke and Pitt. They also took North Carolina to the wire (lost 26-22) here at home. This will actually be just the 2nd time the Eagles have been favorites this season, the first being an unimpressive 21-16 win over Texas State. But they aren’t about to take a conference rival, one they haven’t beaten since 2007, lightly. When it’s not generating turnovers, the Georgia Tech offense can’t stop anybody. BC QB Jurkovec has gone over 300 yds passing in 4 of 5 games. I don’t see how GT shakes off last week’s loss. 8* Boston College

9* Wake Forest (3:30 ET): Wake Forest has long been a “dangerous” team under Dave Clawson. It seems as if almost every year the Demon Deacons outperform expectations and that’s the sign of good coaching. While it was by no means an “impressive” showing, Wake covered for us in the season opener against Clemson. After that, they suffered a 3-pt loss at NC State. But now they are off B2B wins, squaring the record at 2-2 SU. The Deacons have scored a total of 148 points in the L3 games, making them a tough team to want to lay points against (as Virginia found out last week). This is a generous number you should take. 

Virginia Tech comes in off a 40-14 win over Boston College, but that final score was misleading in the sense the Hokies only had a slight +26 edge in total yards. How they were able to turn it into a blowout was thanks to FIVE BC turnovers. This Hokies’ defense has had all sorts of trouble stopping people as it is giving up 471.8 YPG. It was just two weeks ago that they gave up 56 points and 656 total yards. That was a road game. Va Tech is 0-2 ATS on the road as they also failed to cover as favorites in a 38-31 win over Duke. 

Wake Forest may not be North Carolina. But they are better than Duke, yet are getting basically the same amount of respect from the oddsmakers. Actually, this number has been steamed up a bit, which I don’t understand as my own power rankings have this one rated close to a pick ‘em! Ranked teams are a woeful 19-41 ATS this season when facing an unranked opponent and that is what we have here. Virginia Tech is just 7-19-1 ATS as a road favorite going back to 2012, including 4-9-1 under Justin Fuente. The Demon Deacons are 13-5 ATS vs. Top 25 teams under Clawson, including the cover vs. Clemson in the season opener. 9* Wake Forest

8* Oklahoma State (3:30 ET): As the only Big 12 team w/o a loss, #6 OK State is probably the conference’s lone chance of sending a team to the CFP. #17 Iowa State is also unbeaten in conference play, but suffered a loss to Louisiana in the season opener that now looks worse than it did a month ago. I’m a little surprised that in Stillwater this line is so low. Favorites have generally struggled ATS this year in College Football, but have covered 10 of the 11 matchups of Top 25 teams so far. Furthermore, chalk of 4 pts or less have gone 20-9 ATS including 9-2 as the home team. Lay the short number in this one.

The reason Iowa State is getting so much respect here probably has to do with the fact HC Matt Campbell has been tremendous in his career as a dog (32-14 ATS) and is 5-0 ATS vs. Top 10 opponents. But the Cyclones easily could be 1-3 SU instead of 3-1 right now. Not only did they lose outright (as a 13-pt home favorite) to Louisiana, but they were outgained at TCU (won 37-34) and trailed by double digits against Oklahoma. Really, the only “complete” performance we’ve seen from ISU was the 31-15 win over Texas Tech two weeks ago, but that’s a team still winless in Big 12 play. This will - easily - be the best defense that will have faced to date. 

Oklahoma State has been off for three weeks (COVID-19 related, obviously), which has allowed for QB Spencer Sanders to get healthy. Sanders was injured early in the first game vs. Tulsa and the offense has certainly suffered in his absence. Yet the Pokes are still 3-0. They’ll only get better with Sanders back in the mix. The defense has allowed just 27 points in three games and is #1 in the country on third down, allowing only a 17% conversion rate. The Cowboys have won 7 of the last 8 meetings (including 34-27 LY as a 10-pt dog in Ames) and are 5-3 ATS. 8* Oklahoma State

10* Tulsa (7:30 ET): Tulsa has played just two games in 2020 but both were against good teams (Oklahoma State, UCF) and they came out 2-0 ATS. They upset UCF as a 3 TD underdog and nearly did the same to OK State getting an even larger number (I had them in that game). The Golden Hurricane were scheduled to face a third straight ranked opponent (Cincinnati) last week, but that had to be shelved due to COVID-19. Now, off an unscheduled break, they finally get to face a lesser opponent in USF. 

South Florida looked as if they might pull off their own upset last Saturday in Temple. Getting double digits, they were ahead most of the game, but ultimately lost 39-37. That kind of effort was a “far cry” from what we’d seen from the Bulls previously. Besides Temple, they’ve been outscored 124-31 by FBS opponents. Every loss was by at least 20 points including one here at home to lowly East Carolina. The team’s only win this year was against The Citadel and they’ve allowed 39+ points in three of five games. 

While Tulsa may be unaccustomed to laying this kind of weight on the road, they should be more than ready for what shapes up as their easiest game to date. The Golden Hurricane’s defense has been much improved. After falling behind UCF early, they held the Golden Knights to just 10 points over the final three quarters. That was after holding OK State to just three points in the first three quarters of the season opener. This team was a lot better than its record showed LY and has a senior QB Zach Smith leading an offense that will continue to improve. Tulsa is simply a much better football team than USF. 10* Tulsa

10* NY Giants (8:20 ET): For the first time this season, the Giants are off a win. Even though they got outgained (337-240), needed a late defensive TD and then had to hold off a late Washington 2-point try. It was a 20-19 final score. Ron Rivera’s decision to go for 2 (and the win) actually cost Giants’ bettors who played the spread as that line closed -2. But it’s back to the underdog role this week for Joe Judge and the G-Men against a similarly struggling Eagles outfit that also has just one win. I’m taking the points here. 

Philadelphia is as banged up as any team in the league right now. On Tuesday, they did announce that they expect WR DeSean Jackson and RT Lane Johnson to play in this game. However, that comes just as RB Miles Sanders and TE Zach Ertz were injured in the 30-28 loss to Baltimore on Sunday. All the injuries on offense have caused QB Carson Wentz to have a bad start to the year. While Wentz did rally the Eagles late vs. Baltimore, that was after falling behind 24-6 after three quarters and ultimately the rally fell short. 

Though both the Giants and Eagles’ games last week were ultimately decided on failed 2-point conversions in the final minute, the ironic thing is the team that won (Giants) failed to cover while the team that lost (Eagles) did cover. Still, Philadelphia remains one of the league’s biggest underachievers at 1-4-1 SU as they are 0-3 SU/ATS as favorites. This line opened too high and I still like the Giants at the current price as they’ve been in every game but one this year. The Eagles have the same number of DD losses (2) as the Giants. Their ATS woes as a favorite actually go back awhile (8-16 ATS L24) including 5-11 when laying 3.5 to 9.5. The Giants are shockingly 17-5 ATS L22 as a road dog, including 8-1 L9 when getting 3.5 to 7. 10* NY Giants

10* Dallas (8:15 ET): I feel that it’s always worth monitoring “look-ahead lines.” The vast majority of the time, you won’t find much difference. But for this game, the line swung severely in the wake of the Dak Prescott injury. The only line to move more (relative to the look-ahead line) was the Sunday nighter between the Rams and 49ers. The initial adjustment here, while understandable (Prescott is a big loss!), was too severe. I know the defense has been a MAJOR question mark to this point, but I think the Cowboys with Andy Dalton are going to be alright. 

Thanks to a 2-0 start, Arizona quickly grabbed the attention of the market. This will actually be the 5th consecutive game where they are favored and third straight on the road! Consider that the Cardinals had been an underdog 16 straight times before these L5 games. Under HC Kliff Kingsbury, they are just 2-3 STRAIGHT UP as a favorite. That includes an outright loss at home to Detroit three weeks ago and an outright loss at Carolina two weeks ago. Two of their three wins this season have come against Washington and the Jets, who are maybe the two worst teams in the league. 

Dalton will have an excellent set of skill position players at his disposal. He won’t put up the numbers Prescott did, but I expect him to improve the team’s turnover margin. While I don’t think the Cowboys are going to continue to lead the league in yards per game, look for the defense to improve. Certainly, it (the defense) can’t be any worse. Dallas is the only team in the league that’s still winless ATS. So they’re due and it just so happens they’re undervalued here. Arizona has been a disaster on MNF through the years, going 2-11-1 ATS L14. The Cardinals have only forced 3 TO’s all season. 10* Dallas

8* San Francisco (8:25 ET): The lookahead line for this Sunday night NFC West matchup was Niners -3. Once they (SF) lost to Miami last week, 43-17, the line quickly “jumped the fence” and now it’s the Rams favored by a field goal. That’s far too big of a shift in my opinion as the Niners are now healthier than they have been since Week 1 and playing at home. At 2-3 SU, they have to be very disappointed as they went off as the betting favorite in all five games. They’ve been favored by 6.5 or more in four of the games. 

The Rams are just the opposite. They’ve gone 4-1 SU despite being favored only twice. They are coming off two very easy wins, the two games where they were favored, over the Giants and Redskins (who are a combined 1-9 SU). The one time this year that the Rams faced a team with a winning record was Week 3 in Buffalo and they fell behind in that game 28-3 before a miracle comeback fell short. That’s also notable because they’d played out East the week before, which is also the case here. 

The 49ers should be highly motivated this week considering they are winless at home, losing outright to the Cardinals, Eagles and Dolphins. QB Garoppolo, who didn’t appear ready last week, is reportedly now feeling “great.” Despite being 2-3 SU, the Niners have outscored their opponents this season. They are 5-0 ATS as an underdog since the start of last season, the only team in the league w/o an ATS loss when taking points during that time frame. I think this is a great value relative to where the line was originally going to be set. Take the points. 8* San Francisco

10* Tampa Bay (4:25 ET): I still don’t understand how the Bucs lost in Chicago last Thursday and that’s coming from someone that HAD the Bears. The Tampa defense certainly did its job, allowing just 4.1 yards per play, which I *believe* was the second lowest YPP average by any team this season (Washington averaged less in Week 1). It was 13-0 early in the 2Q. But it ended up a 20-19 final in the Bears’ favor, thanks to a last minute FG. Now at 3-2 SU, the Bucs could sure use a win here. While up against an unbeaten opponent coming off its bye, Tampa is off its own ‘mini-bye’ and I like the spot for them. 

I will freely admit that my calls for Green Bay regression in 2020 don’t look so great right now. The Packers are 4-0 and have the NFC’s best point differential. But I still don’t think they are going to match LY’s 13-3 SU record. It’s worth noting that the last three Packer opponents have been w/o their top WR. So that’s helped. GB also got the benefit of facing Minnesota in the season opener and that was their 1st game w/o Stefon Diggs. The Pack have also yet to commit a turnover, which will obviously change sooner rather than later.

Tampa Bay’s defense continues to allow under 300 YPG (#2) and you simply cannot run on them as they are allowing just 58.4 YPG over land, which is easily a league best. Green Bay has run for less than 90 yards in two of its games. With three extra days between games, the offense should be healthier as HC Bruce Arians has said he thinks WR Godwin should be ready to go. That’s huge. Despite being the only unbeaten ATS team in the league, Green Bay shouldn’t be favored here as Aaron Rodgers is just 4-8 ATS as a road favorite the L5 seasons and Tom Brady is 9-1 SU/8-2 ATS as a home dog. 10* Tampa Bay

9* Tennessee (1:00 ET): Playing on an atypically short week, it looks as if the Titans are being counted out again. The team just played Tuesday - when it buried Buffalo 42-16 as a 3.5-point home dog. We went with Tennessee in that one, despite all the COVID-19 distractions, and they responded in kind. Despite now being 4-0 SU, Tuesday marked the Titans’ 1st cover of the 2020 season. Maybe that’s another reason why this line is so low. But whatever the reason is, the line is TOO low. My own power rankings say Tennessee should be favored by more than a TD at home here. Lay the points. 

Houston was a prime candidate for regression in 2020 and regress they have. They were the first team to make a coaching change, firing Bill O’Brien after an 0-4 start. Predictably, the Texans responded with a win, but note that it was against a poor Jacksonville team they were favored to beat by a touchdown. Truthfully, even though this was a playoff team a year ago, the Texans weren’t very good. They had a negative point differential in 2019 and the offseason was filled with questionable personnel moves by O’Brien. That’s why I felt they were a prime candidate for regression. 

I think it’s about time we start giving Titans’ QB Ryan Tannehill some much deserved credit. Since he took over as the starter here (from Marcus Mariota, remember him?), the team has gone 11-3 straight up while averaging over 30 points per game. That’s really impressive. Tannehill has been especially effective in the red zone this year, going 14 for 18 w/ 9 TD passes and no INTs. The Titans scored a TD on all 6 RZ possessions against Buffalo last week and now face a Texans defense that’s given up 28+ pts to every opponent besides Jacksonville. HC Mike Vrabel blitzed a lot on defense Tuesday and that approach should be effective again here against a suspect Texans’ offensive line. The Titans are simply a much better team than Houston and are playing at home. That’s not reflected in this line. 9* Tennessee

10* North Texas (5:00 ET): This week’s top selection boils down to the simple fact that I don’t think Middle Tennessee deserves to be laying a TD to anyone. This is a team that opened its season with a pair of horrible losses, 42-0 at Army and 47-14 to Troy, the latter of which I cashed in on. I did then turn around and tell you to take the points as the Blue Raiders traveled to UTSA on a Friday night. They covered there (as 6-pt dogs), but still lost by two. Another close loss (20-17) followed, at the hands of Western Kentucky, leaving MTSU at 0-4. Finally, they won a game last week, though it was by just a FG over FIU.

The fact Middle Tennessee was a 6-point underdog to UTSA should tell you “all you need to know.” The market has shifted too far in the other direction following three consecutive ATS victories. I have these teams rated almost dead even, so even if factoring in a little bit of a home field edge for MTSU, this number should be a lot shorter. It will be the first time this season that the Blue Raiders are favored. I’m not going to try and convince you that North Texas is a great team, but the Mean Green do have a great offense that will put up enough points to stay within the number here. 

North Texas actually entered last week with a Top 10 rushing offense (in the country!) but were held to just 97 yards on 27 attempts as they fell behind early against Charlotte. It was the third straight game the defense gave up 41+ points. But the Mean Green still lead C-USA with 550 total YPG and 347 passing. QB Austin Aune is averaging 8.8 yards per attempt. Middle Tennessee is still giving up 35 PPG and has failed to cover four of the last five times they’ve been favored. Had the Blue Raiders not scored a GW TD in the final 80 seconds last week, they’d be entering this game at 0-5 and we’d have a much more accurate line. Take the points. 10* North Texas

8* Pittsburgh (12:00 ET): Considering the performance we just saw Miami turn in at Death Valley, the line move here has me really perplexed. As I’d anticipated, “The U” got totally outclassed by top-ranked Clemson last Saturday night in a 42-17 defeat that really could have been much worse. The Hurricanes were outgained 550-210 and got one of their two TDs off a blocked FG attempt at the end of the half. Clemson also missed two field goals and had a WR drop a pass that would have resulted in a TD. 

The question now becomes - “how does Miami respond after such a humbling defeat?” Well, history really doesn’t seem to be on their side. First off, the last three ACC teams to lose to Clemson have all lost again the following week. Furthermore, since 2009, ranked teams are 9-25 ATS the week after facing the Tigers including 2-9 ATS if they are laying double digits. The ‘Canes are 2-0 ATS as DD chalk so far this season, but those games were against UAB and Florida State. Prior to this season, they’d been on a 2-14 ATS run when favored by seven or more points and last year they went 0-4 ATS w/ three outright losses as DD chalk. 

Like Miami, Pitt has taken a step back following a 3-0 SU start. They’ve lost B2B weeks, but those losses (BC, NC State) were both by one point. Basically, the Panthers are two plays away from being 5-0. They outgained NC State by more than 100 yards, but gave up a late TD pass. Then they lost in OT to BC on a missed XP. QB Kenny Pickett, who leads the FBS in passing yards, is dealing with an injured ankle. That may explain the line move, but HC Pat Narduzzi seemed hopeful that he would play. Regardless, Narduzzi is 18-9-1 ATS in road games including 5-1 as a DD dog. Take the points. 8* Pittsburgh

10* Tulane (6:00 ET): Tulane is 2-2 SU on the year, but easily could be 4-0. In both losses, they held a double digit lead - 24-0 over Navy and 24-7 over Houston. Now the Green Wave only managed to gain a paltry 221 total yds LW vs. Houston, but considering they were +5 in turnovers, that’s a game you HAVE to win. While it should be pointed out that Tulane did have to come from behind (at South Alabama) for one of its two wins, they also waxed Southern Miss 66-24 the first time I took them. This will be the third straight time (also had them vs. Houston), but the difference now is they’re a home dog for the 1st time in 2020.

SMU is 4-0. They’ve had a couple of close wins, the first being the season opener at Texas State (where I cashed the Under) and then two weeks ago against Memphis. In that Memphis game, the Ponies prevailed 30-27 as a 1.5-pt favorite. But the defense gave up nearly 600 total yards, only to benefit from four Memphis turnovers. Note that three of those turnovers took place in Mustangs territory, one of them an end zone INT. It was the second time this year that the SMU defense surrendered over 500 yards. 

SMU might be coming into this one ranked #17 in the country, but that’s a case of the pollsters simply looking at the WL record w/o any real context. I’ve got them outside the top 30 of my own power rankings and that doesn’t even include teams from the Big 10/Pac 12. SP+ has them at #40. Tulane’s running game, which was shockingly held to just 70 yds last week, is usually very effective. Take away a game vs. FCS Stephen F Austin and the SMU run defense gives up over 200 YPG at 4.7 YPC. While the SMU offense is #1 in the country in yards per game, they just lost their leading rusher and receiver to injury in the Memphis game and that is obviously quite significant. SMU is just 2-6 ATS its L8 tries as a road favorite while Tulane has covered five in a row as a home dog. Having lost five years in a row to SMU, this is a revenge game. Take the points here. 10* Tulane

10* Georgia State (7:30 ET): Georgia State has played only two games so far. They’ve covered both and probably should be 2-0 straight up as well. They opened the season by taking on Sun Belt favorite Louisiana. In that game, the Panthers jumped out to an early 2 TD lead. That’s pretty significant as they were 17-point underdogs! Unfortunately, they could not hold on, losing 34-31 in overtime. After a game with Charlotte was postponed (COVID), Georgia State wasn’t going to be denied against East Carolina. Despite being a 1.5-point dog (at home), the Panthers led by 25 in the 1st half and won 49-29.

Arkansas State has played four games. They are 2-2 straight up and 3-1 against the spread. Clearly, the Red Wolves’ most impressive performance to date was the win over Kansas State. They went to Manhattan and won 35-31 as a 15-point dog. Give ASU credit for that win, but they’ve also lost by 13 to Memphis and by 29 at Coastal Carolina. In both losses, the defense surrendered 500+ yards. Saturday’s 50-point effort doesn’t “carry much water” with me as it was against a FCS team (Central Arkansas). It was also only five days ago! So this is a very unusual, quick turnaround for the team laying points. 

Georgia State is much more rested coming into this Thursday night game. In its two losses, Arkansas State has surrendered over 200 rush yards. That’s notable with Georgia State having rushed for 480 yards in its two games. So far, the ASU defense ranks LAST among Sun Belt teams, giving up 456.5 yards and 36.8 points per game. Last year, Georgia State put up 52 points and 722 total yards (340 rushing) on this ASU defense. A team that’s led both games by DD, getting points, is a good value against a side that has barely led in any of its games vs. FBS opposition. 10* Georgia State

8* Tennessee (7:00 ET): Given all the trials and tribulations associated with the COVID-19 outbreak, taking Tennessee in this spot may seem a bit “crazy.” With their facility shut down, practicing has been “touch and go.” And the team’s two top receivers - Corey Davis and Adam Humphries - are among those who have tested positive. All and all, 23 players and staff have tested positive since 9/23, making this a very trying season in Nashville. But the Titans are 3-0 straight up, even while they are 0-3 against the spread. 

The Buffalo bandwagon is beginning to fill as the Bills are 4-0 SU with an offense that is outperforming expectations. While the Titans’ three wins have come by a total of six points, Buffalo’s last three wins have also all been of the one-score variety. Two were by just a field goal, and while they enjoyed DD leads in both of those games, it’s worth noting the defense has struggled to hold leads in the second half. The Bills have been outgained by their opponents - the Rams and Raiders - each of the last two weeks. 

Were this game taking place under “normal circumstances,” I’d have Tennessee favored. These are anything but normal circumstances, but I think the line is an overreaction. I think people have forgotten the Titans are also undefeated, not to mention made the AFC Championship Game last year. This is going to be a very motivated football team come Tuesday night. I’m not as high on the Bills (relative to most people) and they too have been adversely affected by the change in schedule. The underdog has gone 5-0 ATS the L5 times these teams have met. Tennessee is 8-4 ATS L12 as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 pts w/ seven outright wins. 8* Tennessee

9* Minnesota (8:25 ET):I know that Seattle has been a far more dominant team than they were last year when they went 11-5 SU and outscored opponents by only 7 points over the full regular season. They enter Week 5 at 4-0 SU w/ a point differential of +33. Them not regressing (as of yet) may have something to do with “letting Russ(ell Wilson) cook” or it’s simply a matter of continuity from last season. Whatever the reason, I’m not sure they keep up their level of strong play. Off their 1st win of the season, I think the Vikings are going to come out strong..

The Seahawks defense remains shaky as they are giving up 476.8 YPG, by far the most in the league. They were very fortunate to “only” allow 23 points last week as the Dolphins routinely settled for field goals. Total yards and first downs were relatively even in that game and it’s not like Miami is a great offensive team. But this Minnesota offense, led by the league’s leading rusher Dalvin Cook, has scored 30+ points against every opponent except the Colts (who have the league’s best defense.

Of Seattle’s last 26 games, 22 of them have been decided by one score. So there’s a strong likelihood this ends up as a “close game.” As mentioned earlier, the Vikings finally got into the win column last week at Houston. The week previous saw them lead the Titans by double digits, only to lose on a last second FG. This is a team with excellent red zone numbers, both offensively and defensively, and I think they’re going to put up plenty of points in this game. That makes them an attractive underdog in my eyes. 9* Minnesota

10* Indianapolis (4:25 ET): Cleveland has won three straight, scoring 30+ points in all three victories. That’s a pretty significant achievement for a franchise that has not started 3-1 since 2001. But some context should be provided here. The three teams that the Browns have defeated - Cincinnati, Washington & Dallas - are a combined 3-8-1 SU and the L2 weeks have seen the Browns be the beneficiary of a +8 turnover margin. They now go from facing the league’s worst defense (Dallas) to the best defense. This is a reality check for Cleveland. 

The Colts are 3-1 and in addition to having the league’s best defense (on a per play and per game basis), they have the league’s 4th best point differential. They probably should be 4-0 SU (have been favored in all 4 games) but blew a lead in Week 1, a game they outgained Jacksonville by over 200 yards. Since then, they’ve allowed just 29 points (total!) and an average of 234.7 yards per game (only 4.4 yards per play). I think the Colts deserve to be favored by AT LEAST a field goal in this one. 

Though Indy is a bit thin at linebacker right now, they get a HUGE break in that Cleveland’s league-leading rushing attack is w/o Nick Chubb. The Colts are #1 in the league at stopping the run, allowing just 77 YPG over land. Again, this is a big step up for Cleveland after facing two of the league’s worst teams (Cincinnati, Washington) and the league’s worst defense. Their defense gave up over 500 yards last week, not a good sign even though Philip Rivers isn’t Dak Prescott. The Browns are just 4-10 SU/4-9-1 ATS L14 vs. teams w/ a winning record and haven’t faced one since a 38-6 loss at Baltimore in Week 1. 10* Indianapolis

9* Cincinnati (1:00 ET): Even with Ravens QB Lamar Jackson missing practice time this week, there was little line movement for this AFC North matchup. Can’t say I’m too surprised about that; all three Ravens wins this year have come by at least two touchdowns. But they were served a case of “humble pie” two weeks ago by Kansas City in a 34-20 loss where they were outgained 517-228. Coming off that, I faded them last week in Washington and sure enough a “ho-hum” effort resulted in me getting a ½ point cover! 

It’s a double digit spread again this week for Baltimore, only this time at home. It’s against a Cincinnati team that’s been surprisingly competitive. The Bengals’ two losses this year have come by a total of eight points and they tied Philadelphia on the road. Last week finally saw Zac Taylor’s team break into the win column as they rolled up 33 points and 500+ yards on Jacksonville. Rookie QB Joe Burrow has been as good as advertised thus far, throwing for 300+ yards in three consecutive games. 

While the Ravens have had success in the past facing rookie QB’s at home and have NEVER lost a game in which they were DD favorites, I expect this game to be close. Cincy has a history of playing Baltimore relatively close, covering five of the last seven meetings including three SU wins. Even last season, they only lost by six here in Baltimore. Ten of the Bengals’ last 16 losses have been one-score games. The Ravens haven’t looked good the L2 weeks and Jackson is surprisingly only 4-8 ATS as a home favorite. 9* Cincinnati

8* Clemson (7:30 ET): So this may seem like a lot of points to lay in a matchup between Top 10 teams, especially considering the fact underdog Miami is 3-0 ATS this year while favored Clemson is 0-3 ATS. But Clemson’s ATS mark certainly is in need of some context as the Tigers have had to lay 28 or more in every game thus far. I’ve played against them twice (at Wake Forest and vs Virginia), but now is the time to jump on board as October is typically the time when Dabo Swinney’s team REALLY starts to roll. Lay the points. 

I expect Clemson to be quite motivated for this game. That’s something you probably couldn’t say for any of the first three contests, yet the Tigers still won them all by at least 18 points. The closest margin came last week against Virginia and keep in mind Clemson gave up a late TD to make it seem closer than it actually was. They’ve covered six of the last eight times they’ve been asked to lay between 10.5 and 21 points. It is VERY rare to get them this low of a favorite at home. The last time they were -14 or less here was 2017!

Miami is likely feeling quite good about itself with its 3-0 start and QB D’Eriq King playing even better than anticipated. But the Hurricanes have been outscored 92-3 in the L2 meetings w/ Clemson. Since 2015, the Tigers have gone 29-15-1 ATS following the first weekend in October and averaged an awesome 40.2 PPG. Over half of its wins in those games have been by three touchdowns! It’s rare to say a 2 TD favorite is in a “buy low” spot but Clemson has covered six of its last seven in the month of October. 8* Clemson

9* Kentucky (7:30 ET): The Wildcats are 0-2, but there’s been some bad luck along the way + you’re talking about an SEC schedule. They actually outgained Auburn 384-324 in a 29-13 loss, but were -3 in turnovers, the most costly being an INT in the end zone late in the 1st half (totally changed the game). They also outgained Ole Miss last week 559-459, but missed the XP in OT and lost 42-41. That was a game they led by two touchdowns (at home) in the 2nd half. It’s time for UK to break through this week with a win.

The fact that Mississippi State was able to upset LSU (down in Baton Rouge) in the season opener is going to carry a lot of weight in the marketplace moving forward. It was an impressive way for Mike Leach to start his tenure in Starkville, but unfortunately (for him) that was followed with an outright loss to Arkansas (as 16.5-point home favorites) last week. That was the Hogs’ first SEC win since 2017 (snapped 20-game losing streak). The answer to “how good the Bulldogs are” probably lies somewhere between those two results. They aren’t as good as they looked vs. LSU nor are they as bad as last week’s result suggests. 

That this number has been bet down tells me that MSU is still getting too much credit for the upset of LSU. I don’t see Leach winning his first two SEC road games as a dog. Kentucky came into 2020 w/ high hopes for Mark Stoops’ 8th season in Lexington. The home team has won five straight in this particular SEC rivalry and covered the spread in the last six. There were some other ridiculous things that went against Kentucky last week (fumbled at goal line two plays after a player should have scored a TD - but was celebrating too early and got tackled!). A Miss State team that’s turned it over four times in both games is the opponent they need to get back on track. 9* Kentucky

8* Western Kentucky (7:30 ET): The Hilltoppers are 0-3 ATS, but at least they picked up a SU win last week. They won 20-17 at Middle Tennessee and while that was a battle of winless teams, WKU will take it. They’d previously fallen to Louisville and Liberty. I made the mistake of taking the points with them in that Louisville game (they lost by 14 as a 12.5-pt dog) and then Liberty was clearly a team not properly priced by the oddsmakers as they beat WKU outright, 30-24, as 14.5-point dogs. Now that the market has clearly shifted AGAINST the Hilltoppers, I feel that now is the time to back them again (1st time since L’ville game). Take the points. 

Marshall is 2-0 SU/ATS with an upset of Appalachian State under their belt. That upset occurred in their last game, but it was also three weeks ago as the Thundering Herd have since fallen victim to a COVID-19 cancellation (they were supposed to play Rice last weekend). It was the second time this year Marshall has had a game cancelled. I expect “rust” to be a bit of a factor Saturday night in Bowling Green and this Thundering Herd team has often struggled outside of Huntington. 

Prior to the start of the season, I would not have expected Marshall to be favored in this game, let alone by this many points. The Herd are just 2 for its last 9 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points and 6-13 ATS its L19 as a favorite, period. They are 1-4 ATS L5 as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points and 2-6 ATS when off B2B SU wins. Meanwhile, WKU is 16-6 ATS its L22 as a dog of 3.5 to 10 pts and 6-3 ATS L9 as a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points. The Marshall passing game is still a question mark (QB Grant Wells was just 11 of 25 vs. App State). Despite losing each of the L3 years to Marshall (all by 7 pts or less), WKU is a perfect 6-0 ATS all-time in this C-USA rivalry. 8* Western Kentucky

10* Notre Dame (7:30 ET): This spread should be closer to four touchdowns rather than three. In picking this one, it’s that simple for me as I’ll trust my own power rankings. Florida State is a complete mess right now having lost to Georgia Tech (as a 13-point home favorite) and Miami (52-10) and needing to come from behind to defeat FCS Jacksonville State. Because of COVID, Notre Dame has been off the L2 weeks. As a top five team, I expect them to be “ready to go” Saturday night in South Bend. Lay the points. 

This game marks the first time EVER that Florida State has been a double digit dog in back to back games vs. FBS opponents. They were +11.5 at Miami FL, an outrageous line in retrospect, and got totally humiliated in that one. It was 38-3 at halftime. The last five times the Seminoles have been DD dogs, not only have they lost, they’ve lost by an average of almost five touchdowns per game. Just to illustrate how far this one proud program has fallen, it was a DD dog just 10 times (in 497 games) from 1978-2017. This will now be the eighth time they’ve been a DD dog in the L34 games! Needless to say, 1st year HC Mike Norvell has his work cut out for him in Tallahassee. 

FSU was down 21-7 last week at home to Jacksonville State. A change was made at QB and that resulted in five straight TD drives. But that was against an FCS team. Notre Dame has won 20 straight in South Bend including 52-0 over South Florida three weeks ago. QB Ian Book is completing 62% of his passes while RB Williams has 174 yards rushing and WR Tremble has 100+ yds receiving. The ‘Noles are totally outclassed here and I love the fact this number has dipped below -21. 10* Notre Dame

8* Louisiana Tech (7:30 ET): UTEP is quite easily the worst 3-1 (SU) team in the country. Two of their three wins have come against FCS opposition (Stephen F Austin and Abilene Christian) and those wins were by a combined 14 points. The Miners’ most recent victory came at LA Monroe (31-6), who I happen to have ranked dead last among the 77 FBS teams that have played a game this season. UTEP actually came into that game as a 9.5-point underdog! The only other game they played was a 59-3 loss to Texas.

So it’s not a question of “IF” the Miners will lose in Ruston, LA this Saturday night, but by “how many.” Louisiana Tech figures to be in a foul mood after getting blown out by BYU last Friday, 45-14. But, in terms of the opponent, it’s a huge drop in class this week for the Bulldogs, who you may recall I had in their opener as they went to Southern Miss as prevailed 31-30 as a 7.5-point underdog. In between the Southern Miss and BYU games, La Tech beat Houston Baptist 66-38, which is what you “should” do to a FCS opponent. 

With the threat of Hurricane Delta, it’s almost a lock that it will rain during this game. Still, I expect a LA Tech team averaging 37 PPG to have no problems against a foe that had won a combined two games the previous two seasons. Bulldogs QB Luke Anthony is 2nd in the country with 10 TD passes and that’s despite the fact he didn’t even start the opener. Despite facing two FCS opponents, UTEP is still averaging less than 20 PPG! Another thing to watch for is third down. UTEP’s defense has been very lucky on 3rd down thus far while La Tech’s has been just the opposite. The conversion rates both defenses are allowing should start moving closer to the mean and that’s more good news for the favorite. Lay the points. 8* Louisiana Tech

10* Louisville (7:00 ET): Both of these teams opened their seasons with a win only to then drop two in a row. But that’s where the similarities end for ACC rivals Louisville and Georgia Tech. The Cardinals, who started the year ranked in the Top 25, played pretty sloppy against two very good teams (Miami and Pitt). Meanwhile, the Yellow Jackets were flat out dominated in losses to UCF and Syracuse, the latter of which isn’t anywhere near the caliber of opponent L’ville has seen to this point. I thought this number was too low when it initially opened. Now I see an incredible value in the Cardinals laying a short number on the road. 

Louisville opened its season with a 35-21 win over Western Kentucky. That should have been an even bigger blowout, but WKU got two “gift” drives that began inside the Cardinals’ 5-yard line. I’m not too worried about the losses to Miami and Pitt as Miami is clearly a very good team and then Pitt was just a three-point loss on the road. Cardinals QB Malik Cunnigham struggled against two of the better defenses in the ACC and threw three interceptions against Pitt. But he should bounce back here against a Ga Tech defense that has given up 86 points in its last two games. RB Javian Hawkins is averaging more than 5.0 YPC and WR Tutu Atwell has 229 yards and three TDs. 

Georgia Tech is just in its second year transitioning away from the triple option offense they ran under Paul Johnson. This is a massive rebuild for HC Geoff Collins and while the Yellow Jackets opened this season w/ a 16-13 upset of Florida State, that win doesn’t look nearly as impressive as it did last month. QB Jeff Sims has already thrown 8 INTs and the offense has also been missing last year’s leading rusher, Jordan Mason. Louisville held Pitt under 4.0 YPC two weeks ago. Speaking of defense, after giving up 49 points and 600+ total yds to Central Florida, Ga Tech then allowed 37 pts to a Syracuse team that had scored only 16 pts in its first two games. They’ve covered just 3 of their L13 home games. 10* Louisville

10* Chicago (8:20 ET): The lookahead line for this Thursday night game had the Bucs favored by three. It was reopened at -6 and while I’m “kicking myself” for not getting my own bet in sooner, I still think there’s plenty of value here on the Bears. My own power rankings suggested this line should be TB -1. I get that Chicago hasn’t looked great offensively, but let us not forget Tampa Bay trailed the Chargers 24-7 in the first half last week and that was at home. The Bears’ defense is good enough to at least keep this one within a field goal. Take the points. 

So far, Chicago has played eight halves of football. Five of them haven’t been very good, but they’re still 3-1 SU. After leading a miracle comeback the previous week in Atlanta, QB Nick Foles made his starting debut for the Bears last week vs. Indianapolis and it didn’t go so well. But he was facing the top defense in the league there. I expect this game to go much better for Foles. It shouldn’t take much with a defense that is allowing just 20.3 PPG so far.

Tampa Bay hasn’t exactly faced a “murderer’s row” of QBs thus far. In fact, each of the L3 weeks has seen them face a team with a new starting QB this year: Teddy Bridgewater in Carolina, Jeff Driskel in Denver and Justin Herbert in LA. That made it pretty easy on the Bucs defense. Yes, Foles is in his first year with the Bears as well, but he’s a veteran. The Bucs are just 2-7 SU/ATS on Thursday Night Football and will be the classic case of a “public road favorite” in this one. Injuries are a much bigger factor for the Bucs right now than for the Bears as numerous skill position players have missed practice this week.  10* Chicago

10* Tulane (7:30 ET): It’s not very often that I would say a team getting a full TD on the road is better than it’s opponent, but that looks to be the case here. Tulane has a massive edge over Houston Thursday night in that they’ve already got three games under their belt while this will be the season opener for the home team (five games postponed due to COVID!). The last time we saw the Green Wave was two weeks ago and I had them in a 66-24 beatdown of Southern Miss (were only -3.5). They were obviously undervalued there and such is the case again this week.

Tulane was able to hang 66 on Southern Miss despite a change at QB and losing their starting RB (Tyjae Spears) to an ACL injury. That speaks to the depth of talent they have on that side of the ball. True freshman Michael Pratt came in against USM and accounted for 182 total yards and three touchdowns. Running back, thankfully, is the Green Wave’s deepest position on offense. BOTH backups - Cameron Carroll and Stephon Huderson - went over 100 yards against Southern Miss! Now you might attribute the fact that Tulane had 572 total yards of offense to the fact they were playing a bad team. But note Houston’s defense allowed 34.0 PPG last season as the team went 4-8 SU. 

Tulane should be coming into this game a perfect 3-0 SU, but they blew a 24-0 halftime lead at home and lost to Navy. Still, they’ve won twice on the road already and upset Houston last season 38-31 as a five-point home dog. Off their worst season in over a decade, Houston lost QB D’Eriq King (transferred to Miami) and Clayton Tune (who did start several games LY) is going to have to deal with a Tulane defense that has NFL talent, not to mention 11 sacks and is 3rd among American Conference teams in yards per game allowed. Take the points. 10* Tulane

10* San Francisco (8:20 ET): Though Philadelphia is winless SU (0-2-1) and ATS (0-3), this line may seem a bit curious to some. San Francisco is as banged up as any team in the league right now, yet still laying a touchdown in primetime against a playoff team from a year ago. I urge you not to fall for the trap of taking the Eagles in this one, for they are simply a bad football team right now. Furthermore, the 49ers are getting healthier at wideout and backup QB Nick Mullens isn’t that much of a drop off from Jimmy Garoppolo. My own power rankings suggest this number is far too low! Lay it! 

This is the second straight year that the Eagles have opened 0-3 ATS. Just like last season, they’ve been favored to win each of the first three games this year. Yet, they are 0-2-1 SU after an embarrassing tie with the Bengals last week. Since jumping out to a 17-0 lead on Washington in Week 1, Philly has been outscored 87-42 over the last 10+ quarters. QB Carson Wentz has not looked good at all as he has the lowest passer rating in the league and committed seven turnovers. Making matters worse, the team was down to one healthy WR at practice on Thursday. Both DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffrey have been ruled out for this game. The San Francisco defense is allowing just 187.3 pass yards per game so far. Don’t look for any kind of turnaround from Wentz here. 

When you’re dealing with as many injuries as the 49ers are, it helps to play the Jets and Giants. They crushed those two teams - 31-13 and 36-9 respectively - and now own the league’s #1 overall point differential! While the Jets & Giants may be the two worst teams in the league right now, the Eagles aren’t too far behind. Unlike Philly, the Niners are getting healthier at WR as both George Kittle and Deebo Samuel are expected back here. Mullens threw for 343 yards LW w/o them and has 2,620 passing yds in nine career starts. Look for the home team to win big Sunday night. 10* San Francisco

8* Miami (1:00 ET): This might seem like an “ugly” one, but despite being 3-0 SU/ATS, Seattle has the worst defensive numbers in the league right now. They are giving up a league-high 431 YPG passing and have allowed over 500 yards total in two of the three games. They have actually been outgained in all three games! All that has largely been overlooked due to the MVP-level of QB Russell Wilson, but eventually the poor defensive play is bound to catch up to the Seahawks. This was a lucky team last year (winning 11 games despite only a +7 point differential) and 21 of their L25 games have been decided by one score! 

It’s not likely we’ll see the Seahawks defense start to improve this week either. All-Pro safety Jamal Adams is out this week after a groin tear last week vs. Dallas. Three other members of the secondary are currently banged up and LB Jordyn Brooks, a rookie, is also likely to miss this game. In addition to giving up the most passing yards per game in the league through three weeks, Seattle is also allowing the most yards per attempt and completion. They are just vulnerable through the air and I look for savvy Miami QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to take advantage. 

Fitzpatrick should also look to hand the ball off some in this game. Rookie RB Myles Gaskin is averaging 4.6 yards per touch. The Miami offensive line is also improved in pass protection, having permitted only five sacks to this point. After losing by 10 at New England in Week 1, the Dolphins have taken undefeated Buffalo to the wire and then blew out Jacksonville 31-13 last Thursday. They’ve had 10 days to prepare for Seattle while the Seahawks are making the longest road trip (in terms of miles) possible in the league this week. 8* Miami

8* Washington (1:00 ET): If the Dolphins play is considered “ugly,” this is one where you’ll have to straight “hold your nose!” But you need not worry that I’ve lost my mind, rather this is a lot of points we’re getting against a Ravens team in a bad situation. They just got embarrassed Monday night by the Chiefs, getting outgained 517-228 in a 34-20 loss. It’s a short week to get over that and I think the loss will have a “carry over” type effect as they are now faced with the prospect of laying two touchdowns on the road. Take the points. 

Washington also lost 34-20 last week, albeit to a Cleveland team that Baltimore had previously blown out by 38-6. But don’t be fooled by Washington’s score from last week. They were basically dead even in total yardage and even led going into the 4th quarter. The problem was that they turned the ball over five times. Only one of the Browns’ six scoring drives DIDN’T start in opposing territory! 

It’s not often that Dwayne Haskins throws for more yards in a game than Lamar Jackson, but it happened last week. Jackson threw for just 97 yards in an awful performance. Yes, he and the Ravens are likely to bounce back with a win here. But it won’t be by the margin the oddsmakers are calling for. I know some key pieces are out for Washington, including DE Chase Young and maybe WR Terry McLaurin, but at home I expect them to keep it closer than expected. 8* Washington

10* Virginia (8:00 ET): Clemson has won its two games so far by a combined score of 86-13 (37-13 over Wake Forest and 49-0 over The Citadel), yet is actually 0-2 ATS as they faced massive spreads in both contests (-34.5, -50.5). They are once again massive favorites this week as they face a Virginia team they infamously drubbed in LY’s ACC Championship Game, 62-17. It’s not just Clemson, but all favorites of this size have struggled to cover this NCAAF season and UVA proved itself to be formidable enough last week against Duke. Take the points in this one. 

So far, all NCAAF favorites of 28 or more points this season are just 1-5 ATS including the two Clemson non-covers. We faded the Tigers in their first game as they allowed Wake Forest in through the backdoor. The reason Clemson failed to cover last week is that they took their starters out, including QB Trevor Lawrence, in the second quarter. This week is less than an ideal spot though as the Tigers have a huge, potential Top 10 showdown with Miami on deck. Don’t expect them to “open the playbook” too much against a team they easily beat last year. They’ll be saving some stuff for Miami. 

I was impressed with Virginia being able to hang 38 on Duke last week. That was the Cavaliers season opener. While forcing seven turnovers certainly helped, QB Brennan Armstrong (24-45, 269 yards) looked good as did WR Lavel Davis Jr (101 yds). These huge spreads figure to be an issue for Clemson all season (well, maybe not next week). Since it was an unusual offseason and the season is still young, don’t expect the Tigers to operate at peak performance quite yet. Virginia isn’t likely to pull the upset, but will take this game very seriously and keep it close enough to where they easily cover the spread. 10* Virginia

9* Charlotte (4:00 ET): Florida Atlantic has yet to play a game this season as previously scheduled dates with Ga Southern and USF had to be called off due to COVID-19 concerns. I’ve been itching to play against the Owls here in 2020 as this is a team ripe for regression after LY’s school record 11 wins. Lane Kiffin bolted the program for Ole Miss and his replacement, Willie Taggart, is off a somewhat disastrous stint at Florida State. I don’t like the idea of this team laying points to a conference foe in its season opener. 

Charlotte made a bowl for the 1st time last year and went 7-6 SU for HC Will Healy. Their last two games have also been called off due to COVID, though it turned out Georgia State was a false positive. Unlike FAU, the 49ers have played a game and it was against Appalachian State. Despite being outgained fairly significantly, the 49ers still managed to cover the 17-point spread as they only lost 35-20. I see the offensive attack doing a lot better here as FAU lost its four top tacklers from a season ago. Charlotte does return its starting QB from last season, Chris Reynolds. This is an offense that led C-USA in rushing LY. 

All signs point down for FAU in 2020 as they forced 33 takeaways last year (most in the country), which is a number they can’t possibly repeat and they lost a ton of talent on both sides of the ball. Since these teams became conference rivals, the road team is 5-0 straight up and 4-1 ATS. I had FAU last year as they won 45-27 (as 1.5-point underdogs!) but this is a far less talented team this year. Charlotte QB Reynolds actually got hurt in the opener, but all the time off allowed him to heal and now he’s expected to start. Take the points! 9* Charlotte

8* Texas A&M (3:30 ET): This is a lot of points to be getting in a matchup of what (we were told) would be the top two teams in the SEC West this season. Obviously Alabama is #1. Texas A&M, expected to be this year’s top challenger, had a shaky first game vs. Vanderbilt. The Aggies could only manage a 17-12 win as 31.5-point home favorites. But it’s a much different pointspread this week and “the great equalizer” got Bama last week as they got backdoored by Missouri. I expect A&M to “show up” big time here.

I think the Aggies’ closer than expected call last week can be attributed to numerous factors. One, it was the first game of the season. Two, there was an obvious “look ahead” to this game. Three, A&M fumbled five times and lost three. Despite the game being “too close for comfort,” the Aggies never trailed and the defense did its job. Also, RB Isaiah Spiller ran for 117 yards on just eight attempts. Everyone is seemingly counting them out this week, but that seems like an overreaction based on the preseason ranking. 

A&M is an experienced team with 17 starters back from LY including QB Kellen Mond, who did have a subpar game last week. I expect him to play a lot better here, even though he’s up against the #2 team in the country. This is a game they’ve been pointing to in College Station all throughout the summer and I can’t see Jimbo Fisher’s team getting blown out. Alabama is just 3-7 ATS its L10 SEC games while Texas A&M has covered 10 of 12 after allowing 20 pts or less in their previous game. 8* Texas A&M

8* Denver (8:20 ET): This line opened up with Denver as the favorite, but quickly flipped upon the announcement that QB Brett Rypien would start for the Broncos. Rypien will already be the third different starting QB for the Broncos this season. While this seems dubious to say the least, I don’t think the line move towards the Jets is justified. Is Rypien really 4-5 points WORSE than last week’s starter Jeff Driskel? I don’t think so. Congrats if you grabbed the Jets when they were +3 earlier in the week, but betting on them to win is a different matter. I’m taking the points Thursday night.

Denver wouldn’t be worth a look here normally, but facing the Jets on a Thursday night certainly opens the door. You have to remember that the Flyboys are also 0-3 SU this season, not to mention 0-3 ATS. The Broncos covered the number the first two weeks against a pair of teams that are a combined 6-0 SU this season (Tennessee and Pittsburgh). Things got out of hand quickly last week vs. Tampa Bay with them down 23-3 in the first half. An earlier turnover set the tone. Hopefully, Rypien can take care of the football, because if he can, the Jets are an easy victim. 

The Broncos aren’t the only team coming into Thursday night banged up. The Jets have a long injury list themselves, mostly on the offensive side of the ball. RB Le’Veon Bell as well as two receivers, Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims, are out. Keep in mind the Jets offense ranks last or second to last in almost every statistical category. They’ve lost all three of their games by double digits, so this is very much a fade against a team that shouldn’t be favored over anybody right now. QB Sam Darnold threw TWO ‘pick-sixes’ last week at Indianapolis. Again, I disagree with the line move. 8* Denver

8* Baltimore (8:20 ET): Over its last five games, Kansas City has found itself down by double digits four times. Remarkably, they have won all five of those games, including the Super Bowl. They’ve even covered the spread in all but one, that being last week’s 23-20 OT win over the Chargers. That win required not one but TWO 58-yard field goals from Harrison Butker. But, as mentioned above, the Chiefs’ ATS win streak (which had been at 10 straight) did end. Now it’s time for their 11-game SU win streak to end as well.

Baltimore has won its last 14 regular season games. You’d have to go all the way back to Week 4 of last season when they lost at home (to Cleveland!) to find the last regular season loss. The Ravens have been more impressive than the Chiefs in the first two games, dominating the Browns and Texans by an average of 24.5 PPG. They easily covered the spread in both games while also winning the total yardage battle. Something else that’s worth noting is Kansas City is being outgained on a yards per play basis this year.

The Ravens are at home, laying a short number, thus I’ve got to take them no matter the opponent. Kansas City has been great in the past as an underdog w/ Mahomes as QB, but they’ve also never had to face an opponent that’s this good. Don’t forget that while KC won the Super Bowl, Baltimore was the more impressive team in the regular season last year. The Ravens are 16-8 ATS all-time on MNF. They have lost to the Chiefs each of the L2 years (and are 0-3 against them since ‘15), so don’t discount the “revenge factor” either. 8* Baltimore

8* Denver (4:25 ET): This is the game this week where my power rankings differ the most from the actual game line. Now my power rankings obviously don’t know about Denver’s injury situation, the most notable being at QB, but still I believe they’ve been “downgraded” too much for this week’s tilt vs. Tampa Bay. The Broncos are actually 2-0 ATS so far having lost by a total of just seven points to the Titans and Steelers, two teams that are a combined 4-0 SU. Even with Tom Brady, the Bucs haven’t been impressive enough to justify being in this kind of price range on the road. Take the points.

Because of Brady, the Buccaneers came into 2020 with very high expectations. Some might even say unreasonable expectations. They’re likely to be favored in as many 13 games, which is crazy for a team that won just 7 games LY and has a 40+ year old starting QB. While they did win last week, that was at home vs. Carolina, who is one of the worst teams in the league. While they played the Saints tough in New Orleans, they still lost by double digits and keep in mind that the Saints just lost to the Raiders Monday night.

Tampa Bay was actually outgained by Carolina LW, 427-339. They were fortunate to force four turnovers. But concerning is the fact that Brady seems to have inherited former QB James Winston’s turnover bug. The Bucs have five of those in two games. Over the L18 games, the Broncos have gone 11-7 ATS and that includes 6-5 when Drew Lock is NOT the starting QB. Jeff Driskell will start in Week 3 and he very nearly led a come from behind victory at Pittsburgh last week. Brady is just 2-4 ATS L6 tries as a road favorite of 6+ points. 8* Denver

8* NY Giants (1:00 ET): Who would have thought that without both Saquon Barkley (out for year) and Sterling Shepard it would be the Giants dealing with LESS issues on the injury front? The 49ers come into Week 3 as banged up as any team I can ever recall. They will be without their two top running backs, QB Jimmy Garoppolo, their top three defensive players (Bosa, Thomas, Sherman) and top pass catcher. It will be Nick Mullens starting Sunday as the team plays for the second straight week at Giants Stadium. 

Last week, the 49ers still managed to down the Jets 31-13. But that’s arguably the worst team in football they were up against and they already had the lead when the injuries began to pile up. In fact, they scored a TD on their first offensive play from scrimmage. They can’t count on doing so again here as the Giants defense has played much better than expected, giving up only 43 total pts in two games including only 10 in the second half. Even w/o Barkley, they very nearly came from behind to defeat Chicago on the road last week, a game where they allowed just 304 total yards. 

Even with a poor ATS history as a home dog of 7 points or less, I see the Giants potentially pulling the outright upset here. The 49ers did stay out East all week, but even under a normal circumstance this is a tough spot. That they lost so many players last week only compounds matters. Facing a 49ers’ defense that is a shell of its former self, I expect Giants QB Daniel Jones and the rest of the offense to have a surprisingly good day. The 49ers were likely to regress this season anyway; the injuries pretty much confirm that. 8* NY Giants

8* Houston (1:00 ET): Don’t blame the Texans too much for being 0-2; all they’ve had to do so far is face the Chiefs and the Ravens. Those are the two best teams in the AFC, if not the entire NFL. The task is only slightly less formidable in Week 3 when they travel to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers. The Steelers, like those other teams, are also 2-0. But last week at home they only barely survived a Broncos team with Jeff Driskell at QB. This line has come down for a reason and I smell upset.

Believe it or not, but Houston actually outgained KC and Baltimore on a per play basis. Being -3 in TO margin to those two means trouble though and that’s what Houston was. This was a team that started 0-3 SU in 2018 and still found a way to make the playoffs. They also made the playoffs after an 0-2 start in 2015. So they won’t be hanging their heads yet. ''That's all we can do is just put our head down and grind,'' DeShaun Watson said. ''Just work and try to do what we do and see what the outcome comes like. Of course, we don't want to be 0-3, but that's not the main thing that's on our minds right now.'' 

Houston still has Watson at QB and he’s far better than any QB the Steelers have faced thus far. I look for Watson to have a big game here and for WR Will Fuller to bounce back here after being held w/o a catch by Baltimore. The Texans are 8-1 ATS their last nine tries off a DD loss at home. Again, Pittsburgh needed to make a late stop LW vs. Denver, up 26-21, to preserve the win against a team playing w/ a backup QB in an emergency situation. The Black & Gold has covered just two of the last eight times it’s been a home favorite. 8* Houston

8* Troy (10:15 ET): Finally, a chance to win late night on College Football Saturday! Both Troy and BYU enter this second game of the season off blowout victories. BYU’s came all the way back on September 7th when they humiliated Navy 55-3 in Annapolis. Troy also went on the road for its opener and they came away with a 47-14 win over Middle Tennessee. That one made me happy as I laid the modest spread with the Trojans. Now that they’re underdogs here, by two touchdowns, I like them even more!

The fact BYU has been off for 19 days is a disadvantage in my book. The reason for the long layoff should be obvious as the Cougars were yet another team dealing with COVID-19. As many as 10 players tested positive while 22 had to go into quarantine. This obviously creates an issue for practicing as some had to be cancelled while others saw players broken up into small groups of 10.  As impressive as the win over Navy was, BYU can’t possibly duplicate that kind of performance under the current circumstances. Another bad sign is the fact BYU is just 1-7 ATS the last eight times it has been favored. 

Troy looked even better than expected against Middle Tennessee, doubling the opposition in total yardage. As noted in last week’s analysis, the Trojans were a lot better LY than their 5-7 SU record would seem to indicate. All five wins were by at least three touchdowns while three of the seven losses were one-score games. The only teams they struggled against were Missouri (SEC team) and then the two that played for the SBC Title (App State, Louisiana). QB Gunnar Watson has his top SEVEN pass catchers back from 2019 and this offense was actually 18th in the country at 458 YPG last season. 8* Troy

9* Baylor (7:30 ET): The previous two years saw Baylor improve it’s win total from 1 to 7 to 11. That was a remarkable coaching effort from Matt Rhule, which is why he’s now in the NFL The Dave Aranda era is now set to begin in Waco and the former Wisconsin & LSU defensive coordinator inherits a squad that virtually everyone believes will regress in 2020. Fortunately for Aranda, he’s opening up against Kansas, the bottom-feeder of the Big 12 that just lost at home to Coastal Carolina (by 15 pts!) two weeks ago. 

Baylor has beaten Kansas 10 straight times, averaging 576.7 YPG in the process. Last year, it was 61-6 in Lawrence and Bears were “only” a 14-point favorite in that one, if you can believe it. While there are a lot of unknowns right now with this team, what we do know is that Kansas remains very bad. The Jayhawks were -3 in turnovers vs. Coastal Carolina, but what you really need to know is they were down 28-0 (at home) in the final minute of the first half! Over the L10 years, KU is just 6-83 SU in conference play, never winning more than one game in any season. 

This is Baylor’s third attempt at starting their season. COVID-19 has gotten in the way both times so far, but Aranda said four days ago that those issues were behind the team. The Bears really could not have asked for a better opponent. Maybe it’s the fact they’ve had to postpone twice, or the unknown factor of a new coaching staff, but this line opened WAY too low IMO. That it’s actually been bet DOWN is pure lunacy as Kansas isn’t going to win a conference game all season. 9* Baylor

8* Duke (4:00 ET): The Blue Devils are 0-2, but that’s actually quite understandable. They opened the season at Notre Dame, whom they played tough in a 27-13 loss (was 17-13 heading into the 4Q). Last week’s 26-6 home loss to Boston College looks bad, and I was certainly glad it happened (as I had B.C.), but that result can directly be attributed to the fact Duke turned the ball over FIVE times. Total yardage was basically even. Four of the five turnovers took place in the red zone where the Blue Devils have now scored just one TD in seven trips this season!

Having not played a game yet, Virginia is a bit of an “unknown” coming into this afternoon. But what we do know is they’ll definitely miss QB Bryce Perkins, who graduated and was essentially the Hoos’ entire offense last season. You have to think that UVA is at a severe disadvantage here facing a team that’s already played twice, even if the game is at home and they are 5-0 SU/ATS the L5 seasons vs. the Blue Devils.

That recent head to head record and what has transpired the L2 wks will certainly have Duke motivated this week. Under HC David Cutcliffe, this team has been tremendous as an underdog, going 11-5 ATS L16 tries. All those turnovers last week couldn’t have happened at a worse time as they turned what could have been a SU win into a 20-point loss. The defensive front has looked good in both games against superior O-lines than what they’ll see here. 8* Duke

10* Texas (3:30 ET): While they were ultimately victorious, Texas Tech’s performance in the season opener could hardly be called “good.” They gave up 600 yards to Houston Baptist, which is a FCS school and not a very good one at that. Even more frightening is that the Red Raiders needed to prevent a 2-pt conversion w/ 3:23 left to hold on for the 35-33 victory. Now, the Lubbock faithful will point to the fact that over a dozen players missed the game due to COVID-19. Still, I don’t think that excuses the poor performance. 

There was nothing poor about the way Texas opened its season. In what HC Tom Herman called a “scrimmage,” the Longhorns blasted UTEP 59-3 as a 45-point favorite. QB Sam Ehlinger threw for 426 yards and five touchdowns -- in the first half! Texas, now ranked 8th in the country, had nearly 700 yards of total offense and didn’t even try in the second half. You can imagine how they have to be licking their chops going against a defense that just gave up 600 yards to a FCS school. Texas is already 8-2 ATS the L10 meetings vs. TT. 

Last year’s matchup in Austin saw the Horns win 49-24 as a nine-point favorite. They are an even stronger team in 2020, thus it’s not surprising to see the line significantly higher even though this game is being played on the road. The last two times they’ve played, Texas has scored a total of 90 points on Texas Tech. I’ve got this line right around 24 points, so even after the line move we’re still getting plenty of value. This is a really good team that should be able to “name the score” Saturday afternoon. 10* Texas

8* West Virginia (3:30 ET): I’m proud to say I was a little “ahead of the curve” when it came to fading Oklahoma State, having already done so last week when they could barely beat Tulsa. Now losing QB Spencer Sanders to injury early on didn’t help. But the fact the Pokes needed to outscore the Golden Hurricane 13-0 in the 4Q last week, just to get a SU win, doesn’t bode well as they are set to begin conference play. Sanders could return here, despite being in a walking boot earlier this week, but clearly wouldn’t be at full strength. 

With the Sanders injury, WVU has to smell “blood in the water.” The Mountaineers were 56-10 winners in their opener (vs. FCS Eastern Kentucky) and have had two weeks to prepare for this game. It’s a matchup they’ve likely had “circled” in Morgantown for awhile. Including LY’s 20-13 loss, WVU has lost five in a row to the Cowboys, also going 0-4-1 ATS. But three of those losses were by seven points or less. The Mountaineers are undeniably better in HC Neal Brown’s 2nd season.

Oklahoma State won last week because its defense was able to limit Tulsa to 278 total yards and 0 for 12 on third down. As you might suspect, WVU has a much more prolific offense than Tulsa. Keep in mind that Tulsa was dealing with several key absences last week themselves, most notably at the RB position. The fact OSU has four new starters on the offensive line this year is a big deal. WVU’s defensive front should be able to take full advantage of that. Big statement game for the underdog. 8* West Virginia

8* Tulane (2:30 ET): Two games in and it would be fair to say Tulane’s season has been defined by “comebacks.” One went their way, a 27-24 win over South Alabama in the opener where the Green Wave battled back from an early 24-6 deficit. But then last week saw them lose by the same 27-24 score to Navy after blowing their own 24-0 lead. There’s basically two ways this next game can go for Willie Fritz’s team: either there’s a hangover or they come out extra motivated. I’m betting on the latter. 

Southern Mississippi’s season also started in Mobile against South Alabama. Only they lost outright, as a 12-point favorite, 32-21. Following that loss, (now former) HC Jay Hopson abruptly resigned! Talk about an auspicious way to start your season! Co-OC Scott Walden is now the interim coach in Hattiesburg and I told you that he was stepping into a near-impossible situation vs. Louisiana Tech. Somehow, the Golden Eagles were still favored to win, so I faded and sure enough La Tech pulled the outright upset with the go-ahead TD in the final minute.

Oddsmakers have at least “learned their lesson” w/ USM this week by not favoring them. But still, this line ought to be closer to a full TD. Having started 0-2 and unexpectedly losing their HC, the Golden Eagles remain in a very fragile position. While this is USM’s third straight home game and Tulane hasn’t been that great on the road, note South Alabama came here and won when they hadn’t previously beaten a FBS team on the road since 2017! Tulane also holds a convincing 30-13 win over Southern Miss in LY’s Armed Forces Bowl.  8* Tulane

8* TCU (1:30 ET): TCU’s season was supposed to begin on September 11th against SMU, but that had to be scrapped because of positive coronavirus tests. Instead, they’ll now open the season with a game against Big XII rival Iowa State. This is a big revenge spot for the Horned Frogs, who lost 49-24 in Ames last season. That was with ISU getting a big game from its QB Brock Purdy and TCU being in the midst of a down season. The Horned Frogs project to be a lot better this year and now the game is in Fort Worth. 

Iowa State already played a game and it didn’t go as planned. Coming in as the #23 ranked team in the country, they lost at home to Louisiana (who is now #19 in the country), 31-14 as 13-pt favorites. It’s not that the Cyclones were beaten that badly ‘in the boxscore.’ (They actually outgained LA 303-272). But two turnovers really hurt and Purdy had a shockingly poor game with just 180 total yards (35 rushing). He completed less than 50% of his pass attempts. ISU is now 0-5-1 ATS its L6 games as a favorite.

TCU was just 5-7 SU last season and lost six of its final eight games. It was their worst season (record-wise) since 2013 (went 4-8 SU). They bounced back the next year to go 12-1 SU! HC Gary Patterson typically does a very good job and while he’s got a bit of a question mark at QB right now (both Downing and Duggan expected to play), he’s got a defense that should certainly overwhelm the ISU receivers like Louisiana did (if not more so!). TCU has not lost at home to Iowa State since 2012. Take the points. 8* TCU

10* Middle Tennessee (8:00 ET): So much for being improved! Middle Tennessee has been a disaster in the early going, getting outscored 89-14 in lopsided losses to Army (42-0) and Troy (47-14). Despite the fact I faded the Blue Raiders in that loss to Troy last week, it was shocking to see how poorly they played. Three turnovers (following four more vs. Army) and QB Asher O’Hara (3,600 total yds & 29 TDs LY) was actually benched. But as bad as things have been thus far in Murfreesboro, I can’t believe MTSU is getting this many points against UTSA.

This is the most unique C-USA opener in history. Originally, UTSA was going to face Memphis. But the Tigers had to bow out due to a COVID-19 outbreak. That left an open spot on the schedule and MTSU stepped in. This change was made just last week, giving both sides very little time to prepare for an opponent they are not that familiar with, despite being conference rivals. There have been only two all-time meetings, the most recent taking place in 2016. The fact MTSU HC Rick Stockstill is being coy about his QB situation puts UTSA in a tough spot, especially laying points.

UTSA might be 2-0, but they’ve beaten a terrible Texas State team (in double overtime) and then SF Austin (a FCS school). As bad as MTSU has looked through two games, they are still the toughest opponent UTSA has faced so far. The Blue Raiders are also desperate, which has me grabbing the points. UTSA infamously almost gave away a 31-14 lead to Texas State in the opener. I had them as they were getting 6.5 points. But now they are favored in a FBS game for just the 1st time since 2018. They are 0-4-1 ATS L5 as a favorite (vs. FBS) and are just 4-13-1 ATS L18 home games. 10* Middle Tennessee

10* Jacksonville (8:20 ET): So much for “tanking.” The Jaguars have been far more competitive than was expected the first two weeks, knocking off Indianapolis here at home and then nearly upsetting Tennessee on the road. That 2-0 ATS start has them favored at home on a short week and honestly this is probably one of the few instances we’d ever consider laying points with the Jags. Miami, who ironically overachieved LY in what was supposed to be a “tanking” season, has looked poor in the first two games, especially on the defensive side of the ball. 

Some felt Miami was going to be able to contend in the AFC East this season. I did not. Two weeks in and their fans are already calling for Tua! Losses to the Patriots and Bills have been a “cold dose of reality” as both contests saw the Dolphins play from behind the whole way. The defense was atrocious last week as it allowed Buffalo to gain 8.9 yards per play! That’s good news for Jags QB Gardner Minshew II, who has been surprisingly efficient so far in completing over 75% of his passes. The Dolphins’ pass defense is at the bottom of the league right now. 

Jacksonville is 4-0 ATS in Thursday night home games. They could easily be 2-0 heading into this game, but missed an XP early in the 4Q LW at Tennessee and then gave up the GW FG in the final two minutes. Special teams play wasn’t good either and the defense didn’t create much pressure. But despite losing, the Jags outgained the Titans 480-354. I can’t see the Dolphins correcting their issues on a short week, playing on the road. 10* Jacksonville

10* UAB (7:30 ET): These teams are no strangers to playing on Thursday night. South Alabama opened its season on a Thursday with a 32-21 upset over Southern Miss as 12-point underdogs (Southern Miss’ coach then resigned). A week later, it was UAB’s turn to play on a Thursday and they lost 31-14 down in Miami. Considering who the opponent was, the Blazers need not hang their heads in shame over that result. While they are 0-2 ATS (also failed to cover in a win over Central Arkansas) and South Alabama is 2-0 ATS (almost upset Tulane in Week 2), this matchup favors the road team and I’ll lay the points in this one.

The last 3+ seasons have seen UAB win a total of 28 games and make B2B C-USA Title Game appearances. Keep in mind the program ceased to exist for the two years prior! HC Bill Clark has done a remarkable job here, considering that circumstance, and has one of the most experienced teams in the country in 2020. The 45-35 win over Central Arkansas was not as close as the final score indicates as the Blazers turned it over three times, but still had a 459-238 total yardage advantage. Two Central Arkansas’ TD drives were 15 yards or less and they had a defensive score as well. The Miami loss was simply a case of running into a better football team.

South Alabama is the kind of opponent UAB typically feasts on. The Jaguars won only TWO games LY. UAB is 4-1 ATS off a bye week as well as 18-3 SU (14-7 ATS) its L21 games as a favorite. They’ve also covered five of six against Sun Belt teams. While UAB did lose starting QB Tyler Johnston III to an injury (non-throwing shoulder), thankfully backup Bryson Lucero has seen action in both games thus far and is actually averaging more yards per attempt than Johnston was. South Alabama’s passing game - also using 2 different QB’s - has been effective thus far. But the UAB defense has yet to allow a 200+ yd passing day this season. South Alabama struggles to run the ball (3.4 YPC) and that will cost them here. 10* UAB

10* Detroit (1:00 ET):  “The Lions should have won last week” is something Lions fans are probably sick of hearing at this point. However, last week may have taken the cake. Since 2006, NFL teams with a 17+ point lead entering the 4Q were 779-2 SU. That record is now 779-3 SU after the Lions inexplicably gave up three touchdowns to Mitch Trubisky (who had been playing HORRIBLE up to that point) last week. That 27-23 loss marked Detroit’s 11th when leading in the 4Q under Matt Patricia, who started here in 2018. It was their 10th loss in a row overall and they are just 1-9 SU L10 games decided by 8 pts or less. 

Last year’s two meetings between the Packers & Lions pretty much encapsulated the two seasons. Consider that GB never led in regulation in either game. Yet they won both by kicking GW field goals as time expired. Per Elias, it was just the second time EVER a team swept a season series in which it never held a lead in regulation (the other was in 1977). The Packers were an extremely fraudulent 13-3 SU team a year ago as they went 9-1 SU In games decided by 8 pts or less and only outscored opponents by 63 points. For comparison, the 10-6 Vikings had a +104 point differential LY. 

This is clearly a contrarian play as much is being made over the Lions injuries on the defensive side of the ball. Aaron Rodgers had a big game last week in Minnesota, but for some reason always has his share of problems with the Lions. Including LY’s two miraculous escapes, the Packers are 0-6 ATS the L3 years vs. Detroit and just 2-4 SU. Given how lopsided public betting figures to be on this game, it’s interesting the number hasn’t moved. Given that they allowed 7.8 yards per play last week (league-high) to Minnesota, maybe it's the Packers defense that everyone needs to be concerned about. Take the points. 10* Detroit

10* Dallas (1:00 ET): I’ve watched as this line has been bet down all week and decided now is the time to act. I just can’t see the Cowboys, a team I project to finish near the top of the NFC, starting 0-2. I will caution you not to put much stock inthe fact Atlanta gained 500+ yards against Seattle last week. They trailed most of the way and ran a TON of plays. The Falcons also don’t have the same caliber of defense as the Rams, who were able to hold Dallas to 17 points last week. The line move is an overreaction to America’s Team losing a national TV game where they were favored. Lay the points.

Cowboys QB Dak Prescott should have a big game Sunday. Last week, Russell Wilson completed 31 of 35 pass attempts against this Falcons’ defense for 322 yards and four touchdowns. Cornerback is an issue for Atlanta and that’s a problem when facing a Dallas offense that may have the best group of starting WR’s in the league. The “success” this Atlanta defense had in the 2nd half of last season may have saved HC Dan Quinn’s job, but it was artificial, built on facing mostly weak offenses. 

While it is true Atlanta has covered each of its last four road games (were at home LW), it is also true that they were just 4-16 ATS in the 20 previous road games. Dallas has covered three consecutive home openers and this line should be at where it opened. There will be fans present. The Cowboys are a much better team than the Falcons and that should be obvious by the time this one is over. 10* Dallas

8* Louisiana Tech (7:30 ET): Southern Miss’ opening week loss to South Alabama was considered so bad that HC Jay Hopson ended up resigning! While Hopson openly clashed with the university president over a variety of issues during his tenure, the 32-21 loss to start the season was apparently the straw that broke the camel’s back. Consider that the Golden Eagles were 12-point favorites in that game and South Alabama hadn’t won on the road since 2017. I’m a little shocked that USM opened as the favorite this week, let alone has been bet up! 

The new man in charge in Hattiesburg is Scotty Walden, who is only 30 years old and served as the co-OC under Hopson. While Walden is considered a bright young offensive mind, this is hardly the way one would hope to make their head coaching debut at the FBS level. It’s not like Southern Miss has been a bad team (they had 4 straight winning seasons under Hopson), but a bad home loss to a team like South Alabama followed by a coaching change this early in the season is ominous.

Louisiana Tech has yet to take the field in 2020, but given all the turmoil their opponent has already endured, I don’t think the Bulldogs are at any sort of disadvantage here. Skip Holtz led this team to 10 wins last season and with the state of the USM program, right now the C-USA West Division is really up for grabs. While only eight starters are back in Ruston, Southern Miss looked VERY weak in the trenches against South Alabama. After losing to the Golden Eagles in OT back in 2017, then by one point in 2018, it was all LT LY in Ruston, 45-30. Don’t think for a second Holtz isn’t motivated by the idea of beating USM B2B years for the 1st time since 2013-14. Take the points. 8* Louisiana Tech

8* North Texas (6:00 ET): SMU failed to cover in its opener two weeks ago at Texas State. The Mustangs managed to win by only a 31-24 margin and were favored by 24.5 points. I was more than happy with that result having taken the Under, which cashed with PLENTY of room to spare. Now for the second straight time the Ponies hit the road, albeit this time for an even shorter in-state trip as they will stay within the Metroplex to face North Texas, who crushed its first opponents - FCS Houston Baptist by a score of 57-31. 

Though the win came over a lesser opponent, North Texas should be proud of how they played in the opener. The offense rolled up a school record 721 total yards and 11 different receivers caught a pass. They ran 86 plays! Getting this game in Denton is huge for the Mean Green, not only because they’ve lost 10 straight times away from Apogee Stadium, but also due to the fact the home team is on an 6-1 SU run in this rivalry (nicknamed “The Safeway Bowl.”) UNT has legit revenge for a 22-point loss in Dallas LY. 

SMU has already proven itself unworthy of laying a lot of points on the road. Facing a tougher test this week, I expect them to once again struggle to grind out a SU win. In my analysis of the Texas State game, I mentioned that - even w/ QB Buechele back -  you should look for SMU’s scoring average to DROP from LY’s 41.8. That’s because the top two running backs both graduated. The Mustangs have failed to cover five straight road games, so laying double digits is clearly a BAD idea here. Take the points. 8* North Texas

8* Troy (4:00 ET): Middle Tennessee was humiliated in its opener two weeks ago, losing to Army 42-0. While four turnovers certainly didn’t help, it was clear from the outset that the Blue Raiders were outclassed up in West Point as they found themselves outgained 368-184 for the game. For a MTSU team that fancies itself as “improved” coming into 2020, that was obviously NOT the way it wanted to start the season. Things get no easier this week with a visit from Troy, who is also looking to improve after a disappointing season. 

Troy had won 10 or more games three straight years going into 2019. But Neal Brown left for WVU and Chip Lindsey’s first year on the job didn’t go as well as he’d hoped. The Trojans finished 5-7 SU, their first losing season since 2015. Interesting though is that all five wins LY came by 21 or more points. Three of the seven losses came in one score games while three others were to either Missouri or teams that played for the Sun Belt Championship (App State and Louisiana). I say that if you’re looking for either Middle Tenn or Troy to improve this year, look more so to the latter. 

These programs have not met in the eight years since MTSU left the Sun Belt. They’ll meet twice this season though, a result of the reality we are currently living in. I look for Troy’s offense to have a big day, led by soph QB Gunnar Watson, who has his SEVEN top pass catchers back from a year ago. While MTSU struggled to defend the run last week, it’s not like they are likely to do any better against the pass w/ just three starters back from a year ago. Troy’s offense averaged 458 YPG last year, which was 18th best in the country! The Trojans are 9-3 ATS their L12 games as a road favorite. 8* Troy

10* Boston College (12:00 ET): Duke certainly made a decent accounting of itself last weekend in South Bend. Coming in as a three TD underdog, the Blue Devils only lost by 14 to Notre Dame and it was even closer entering the 4Q when they were down just four. While a noble effort, I’m not sure that I’m willing to call Duke “underrated” at this point. In fact, it might be quite the opposite as ND might simply be “overrated” as are the Blue Devils this week as they are laying too many points here to Boston College.

The primary issue for Duke this week is going from the “hunter” to the “hunted.” While very good as an underdog under HC David Cutcliffe, the Blue Devils’ record as a favorite is shaky. They’ve covered just 4 of the last 14 chances laying points and have lost outright six of the last nine. Preparation is another issue this week as BC has a 1st year HC and QB. Note that while the Blue Devils did hang tough with Notre Dame last week, they were still outgained 441-332 and averaged just 2.4 yards per rush. 

While Duke is coming off a high-profile loss, Boston College has had its full attention on its season opener. This is the latest any BC season has begun since 1981. The Blue Devils were NOT an originally scheduled opponent, but plans obviously had to be changed this year. Jeff Hafley takes over in Chestnut Hill, replacing Steve Addazio, who did not leave the cupboard bare. The Eagles have a stellar offensive line (maybe the ACC’s best?) and QB Phil Jurkovec (a transfer from Notre Dame) seems ready to seize the reins. Keep this in mind: BC is on an 8-4 ATS run as an underdog, including 7-1 when getting between 3.5 and 10 points. 10* Boston College

8* Tulsa (12:00 ET): Oklahoma State comes into 2020 with plenty of fanfare as the Pokes are ranked #11 in the country. Originally set for last week, this game w/ Tulsa had to be pushed back to COVID-19 concerns on the Golden Hurricane’s end. But OSU still had to enjoy its Saturday as a number of their Big 12 rivals (such as Iowa State) lost to unranked foes. Of course, that’s precisely the situation the Cowboys find themselves in and I think this is too many points to lay to a motivated, in-state rival. 

Tulsa won only 4 games LY, but was more competitive than that record suggests. They actually outgained their AAC foes (by 45 YPG) despite going only 2-6 SU in conference play. They had two players chosen in the NFL Draft, so there was some talent. There still is, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. The L3 years have seen the Golden Hurricane held under 30 PPG, but with nine starters back for 2020, we could very well see them get back to the heights of 2015-16 (HC Montgomery’s first two years here) when they averaged a healthy 39.9 PPG. They have a senior QB in Zach Smith and a LOADED backfield as well. 

Of course, OK State has its own offensive firepower that will be on display. But with this being the ONLY non-conference game on the schedule, I don’t see the Cowboys being particularly motivated. They did beat Tulsa 40-21 last season (on the road), but that margin won’t cut it this time and the Golden Hurricane are a much stronger team this year as they head into Stillwater on Saturday. Though #11/#12 in the AP/Coaches Poll, OSU is just 17th in SP+ and I have Tulsa ranked even higher than their SP+ rating. 8* Tulsa

10* NY Giants (7:15 ET): Pittsburgh is certainly being priced as a playoff team entering 2020. They have better than 50% odds at the books and should end up being favored in 9 or 10 games, barring significant injuries. Of course, speaking of significant injuries, the Steelers lost Ben Roethlisberger early last season and wound up getting 13 very subpar games at QB from the hideous combo of Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodgers. Big Ben is set to return for ‘20, but how likely is that he’ll be his old self? 

The Giants enter the year with very little expectations. They were 4-12 SU in 2019. QB Daniel Jones, who many questioned going so high in the draft, had a bit of a rough rookie campaign. The team was tied with the Chargers for worst TO margin in the league (-17). Jones lost 11 fumbles himself, but did throw a team rookie-record 24 TD passes. Saquon Barkley should no longer be limited by an ankle injury that slowed him down most of last season. I’m counting on Barkley to have a strong Week 1 performance here. 

This is a lot of points to lay, on the road, in Week 1. On Sunday, we saw two road favorites of a similar size - Philadelphia and Indianapolis both lose OUTRIGHT. I’m very much “playing against the line move” here as I’m not convinced Roethlisberger will be the “Big Ben of old” and the Giants should be more competitive for 1st year HC Joe Judge. The Steelers have struggled as road favorites under HC Mike Tomlin, going 2-5-1 ATS their L8 times, and they are also just 2-7 ATS L9 season openers. Take the points. 10* NY Giants

10* Carolina (1:00 ET): Call me crazy, but I think Carolina is going to win more games than expected this season. That still might mean a last place finish in the NFC South, but new HC Matt Rhule has certainly inherited worse projects at Baylor and Temple than what he’s faced with now in the NFL. Perhaps the biggest reason for optimism would be QB Teddy Bridgewater, who is a remarkable 16-2 ATS in his career as an underdog, the best such record in the Super Bowl era. Bridgewater will be coached by not just Rhule, but also QB Coach Joe Brady, who engineered the record-setting LSU offense last season.

While the Panthers return the fewest number of snaps from a year ago, Las Vegas is #2 in that department. I am not particularly high on the Raiders going into their first year in Sin City. This was a team that somehow won 7 games despite getting outscored by 106 points. This year, I am projecting them to finish LAST in the AFC West. Though it’s only Week 1, the Silver and Black have never fared well in these 1 PM ET kickoffs and I don’t suspect that’s about to change. The team is also 0-3-1 ATS its L4 times as a road favorite.

If my belief that Carolina is going to win more games than expected holds, then this is precisely the kind of game they are likely to “steal.” The Raiders didn’t even average 20 PPG last season, the third year in a row that was the case, and will be starting two rookie receivers. Then you have the defense, which in three years under coordinator Paul Guenther has ranked 31st in points allowed and 32nd (last) in yards per play. That unit is breaking in five new starters. Even before factoring in any kind of homefield advantage here for the Panthers, I feel this line is too high. Take the points. 10* Carolina

10* Detroit (1:00 ET): Matt Patricia enters 2020 firmly on the hot seat in the Motor City. Fortunately for him, I project his Lions to improve upon LY’s 3-12-1 SU record quite a bit. It starts with better health, particularly at the QB position. In the eight games with Matt Stafford in the lineup, the Lions were pretty competitive (3-4-1). They were 0-8 without him, getting subpar QB play. This was a team that SHOULD have finished with a better record though; they led at the half six times. They were 3-8 SU in one-score games. 

The Lions’ pythagorean win differential last year was -2.9. That measures actual vs. expected wins, the latter based on point differential. Believe it or not, in a wide open NFC North, I can see the Lions going from worst to first! The division’s two playoff teams from last year - Green Bay and Minnesota - are both set to regress. Chicago, who is Detroit’s Week 1 opponent, is a bit of a “wild card.” 

Bears HC Matt Nagy surprised some by electing to start Mitchell Trubisky at QB here. The team ponied up big bucks to sign Nick Foles in the offseason. The Lions are 0-4 SU vs. the Bears the L2 years. All but one of those losses came by one score. But Chicago covered only one road game all season LY and is 0-6 ATS L6. This is only the 2nd time Detroit has been a division favorite under Patricia. Look for Stafford to air it out and justify the price range. 10* Detroit

10* Western Kentucky (8:00 ET): HC Scott Satterfield sort of walked into a great situation LY at Louisville. The Cardinals had won just 2 games the year prior, so the bar was low and it wouldn’t take much to improve. That said, Satterfield did a marvelous job as L’ville improved its win total by more than any other P5 team in the country (+6) and capped things off with a 38-28 win over Miss State in the Music City Bowl. But now come the weight of expectations and the Cardinals are opening the season as a DD favorite. 

The Cards were DD favorites just one time vs a FBS foe last season and it happened to be against the team they’ll face here, Western Kentucky. Despite losing that game 38-21, the Hilltoppers saw their own 6-game improvement in 2019, going from 3-9 SU to 9-4. They enter this season as one of the favorites to win C-USA’s East Division. I don’t see them getting much respect for this game though and think that’s a mistake. The Hilltoppers were a perfect 4-0 ATS as road dogs last season. 

There is a lot of fanfare over L’ville QB Micale Cunningham, who is a dual threat that should put up big numbers this season. But don’t look past this WKU offense. They return a veteran O-line and a stud RB in Gaej Walker. Plus, they are adding a grad transfer from Maryland, QB Tyrrell Pigrome, who is a dual threat himself. Look for Pigrome to become a better passer in this offense. His first game being against a defense that gave up 33 PPG and was 112th in YPP a year ago should help. Pigrome was Maryland’s QB in a 51-41 season opening upset of Texas a few years back. 10* Western Kentucky

8* Wake Forest (7:30 ET): Under Dabo Swinney, Clemson has become NCAAF “royalty,” winning two National Championships and 69 games in the L5 seasons. They’d won 29 straight before losing in LY’s National Title Game to LSU. The Tigers are again absolutely loaded entering 2020 as they have QB Trevor Lawrence back and figure to be DD favorites in every game with the exception of a trip to Notre Dame. But while they had no problem covering DD spreads last year (11-3 ATS in that role), I think this year could be a bit different. 

Wake Forest always seems to overachieve for HC Dave Clawson and last season was no different as the Demon Deacons won eight games on their way to the Pinstripe Bowl. They’ve now had a winning record each of the last four seasons. However, like most of the ACC, they’ve struggled against Clemson. The last two years have seen WF lose to the Tigers by a combined score of 115-6. It was 52-3 LY in Death Valley. Overall, it’s an 11-game losing streak to the Tigers. 

There will be no fans present Saturday night in Winston-Salem, but I still feel the number is too high for a season opener, even if it is Clemson with this much returning firepower. Wake Forest has a lot to replace on offense, but their defense is expected to be good with eight starters and the kicking game is sound as well. Wake Forest has virtually no shot at winning this game, but I like them getting the boatload of points in this most unusual of season openers. 8* Wake Forest

10* UTSA (3:30 ET): Texas State already has a game under its belt and while it was a loss, things really went better than anticipated against heavily favored SMU. The Bobcats “only” lost 31-24, easily covering as 24.5-point home dogs. The game also stayed well Under the 71.5-point total, which I enjoyed as I had the Under. Despite the Under, Texas State still put up over 400 yds of total offense and averaged over 5.0 YPC on the ground. QB Brady McBride completed 21 of 39 pass attempts for 229 yards and 2 TDs. It was a really competitive game against a much better team. 

UTSA is dealing with some attrition entering the season opener. Eight players are going to miss this game due to COVID-19, which makes things tough for a new coach staff. But I still expect Jeff Traylor’s offense to move the ball in this one. Texas State gave up 544 yards last week to SMU and the Roadrunners have a RB in Sincere McCormick, who sent numerous school records as a freshman last season, including an 189-yd effort vs. UTEP. Traylor’s offenses always seem to feature a productive RB, so expect a big sophomore season from McCormick. Last year, the UTSA defense led C-USA in tackles for loss.

In its last 26 games, Texas State has beaten just ONE FBS opponent by more than a touchdown. So while UTSA is dealing with the COVID issue, I believe they’ll at least hang tough. In fact, before factoring in homefield advantage, I’ve got the Roadrunners higher in my power ratings than Texas State. So being able to grab this many points seems like a luxury. Texas State is just 3-8 ATS its last 11 home games and was favored by a TD or more just once in that span. It was LY vs. South Alabama and they only 30-28. Take the points. 10* UTSA

8* Kansas State (12:00 ET): So Arkansas State already has a game under its belt and it was a 37-24 loss at Memphis. Though the Red Wolves left with the cash (as 18.5-point dogs), they were probably left kicking themselves for not playing a tighter game. Three turnovers were the undoing, although the defense giving up 500+ total yards was going to make it hard to pull the outright upset. Kansas State might not be Memphis, but they are a P5 team that’s had extra time to prepare and offer a widely different look than Memphis. 

Kansas State was a solid team for Chris Klieman last season. Klieman was in a tough spot replacing a legend in Bill Snyder, but his first season in Manhattan produced eight wins including an upset of Oklahoma. While the Wildcats must replace four O-lineman in 2020, the defense and special teams are solid and QB Skylar Thompson is back for his senior season. Thompson accounted for 23 TDs last season, 11 of which came on the ground. This game should allow for him to “pad” his passing numbers as last week, Memphis’ QB Brady White completed 72% of his passes. 

This is a tough spot for ASU, who is going on the road for a second week in a row to face a marquee opponent. Their QB situation is not yet settled (played 2 last week) and Kansas State has a much better defense than Memphis. While it may look like a lot of points, Arkansas State is just 3-8 ATS L11 as a road underdog of 10.5 to 14 points. Time of possession will be key here as LY saw K-State rank ninth in that department while ASU was 113th. Even before factoring in a minimal homefield advantage (there will be fans), I thought this number was simply too low. Lay the points. 8* Kansas State

8* UAB (8:00 ET): I think we all need to take a moment and appreciate the job HC Bill Clark has done with UAB football. This program actually ceased to exist for two seasons (2015-16) due to the university’s financial situation. But in the three years since its return, the Blazers have won 27 games and appeared in the last two C-USA Title Games, even winning the 2018 version. They were one of the most inexperienced teams in the entire country LY, but are now one of the MOST experienced in 2020 w/ 18 starters back.

Miami is in many ways the opposite of UAB. They are considered a College Football “institution.” Yet the Hurricanes have just ONE bowl win since 2006 and posted a losing record last season at 6-7 SU. Yet the ‘Canes got the coveted “Most Improved Team in the Country” moniker from Phil Steele in his publication, largely due to QB D’Eriq King transferring in from Houston. That kind of attention often leads to a team being overvalued early on in the season and that’s precisely the case here for “The U” in Thursday’s opener.

For the record, I agree with Steele that Miami is going to be improved this year. But they had just TWO double digit victories last season, both over non-bowl teams, so I find it hard to believe they’re going to be able to come out and dominate a team like UAB that has experience and won 9 games a year ago. This has been a weird offseason to say the least and Miami could have some growing pains integrating its key transfers. Not only is UAB experienced, they did get six spring practices in and have a game already under their belt. Last week’s 45-35 win over Central Arkansas was not as close as the final score indicates as the Blazers turned it over three times, but still had a 459-238 total yardage advantage. Two Central Arkansas’ TD drives were 15 yards or less and they had a defensive score as well. Miami is just 7-15 ATS as a favorite the L3 seasons w/ 12 outright losses! 8* UAB

10* Navy (8:00 ET): 2019 saw Navy make the jump from 3-10 to 11-2 straight up. Not only that, but the Midshipmen were also one of the best bets in the country at 10-3 ATS. Last season’s bounce back in Annapolis was largely inevitable as the 3-10 SU record in 2018 was the worst in any season under HC Ken Niaumatalolo. Regression this year is every bit as inevitable, but look for the Middies to still win a bunch of games. This game w/ BYU is a lot better matchup than the originally scheduled opener, which was Notre Dame in Ireland. 

BYU was supposed to open its season against “Holy War” rival Utah. But with the Pac 12 cancelling its season (for now), the Cougars head across the country instead. BYU had its own “down” year in 2018, winning just 4 games. But they’ve since gone 7-6 SU two straight seasons. Three of the wins last year were by a field goal. A major issue that they are dealing with right now is the injury to TE Matt Bushman. His season ending Achilles injury means BYU will be without last year’s four top receivers. 

Another issue I see for BYU in this game is that their defense was very susceptible to the run a year ago. They gave up 168 YPG over land, the most ever under HC Sitake. As we all know, few teams in the country are as adept as the Naval Academy is when it comes to running the football. They put up 361 YPG rushing LY at 6.1 YPC. This line has “jumped the fence” (meaning BYU now favored), but wherever it ends up, the fact BYU is 1-4 SU/ATS its L5 games where the line is a FG or less and Navy is 4-1 SU/ATS will apply. Navy won all six home games last season, doing so by an average of more than 20 PPG. My own power ratings suggest they should be about a 7-pt favorite here and that’s w/o factoring in much of a home field advantage. 10* Navy

10* Kansas City (6:30 ET): So, after much consternation, the Chiefs are my pick to cover the spread in Super Bowl LIV. While I agree with the oddsmakers’ assertion that these teams do rate pretty evenly, what this play ultimately comes down to is taking the more proven commodity. Admittedly, San Francisco was my pick to be the most improved team in the league this year and went from 4-12 to 15-3 SU. But Kansas City has won 10+ games each of the L5 seasons, not to mention has won/covered eight in a row coming into Sunday. They’ll have the best player on the field (Patrick Mahomes) and I believe will win their 1st SB in 50 years. 

Despite falling behind Houston 24-0 in the Divisional Round and Tennessee 17-7 in the AFC Championship Game, the Chiefs were able to storm back and win both games by double digits. Mahomes and the offense have been absurdly efficient in the playoff, scoring a touchdown on 60% of all drives, including seven straight vs. the Texans. It won’t be that easy against the 49ers, who rank 2nd in total defense. But slowing this Chiefs’ offense down is easier said than done. In the end, I trust Mahomes to put up more points than Jimmy Garoppolo.

Don’t discount what the Chiefs’ defense has been doing either. During their 8-0 SU/ATS run, they’ve held the opposition to an average of just 13.7 PPG. In the regular season, they (like the 49ers) were a top 10 scoring defense. Interestingly enough, in the last 18 Super Bowls, the team with the fewer wins has gone 15-2-1 ATS. That’s KC here. The Chiefs have covered the spread by an average of 7 pts during the 8-0 ATS run and Andy Reid has always been outstanding off a bye, going 21-8 ATS in his career, including 2-0 this season. 10* Kansas City

10* Tennessee (3:05 ET): The Titans obviously made a lot of history last week in what was also a big win for the sportsbooks. Baltimore had been 36-0 all-time (SU) as a double digit favorite, the only franchise never to lose as DD chalk. They’d also never lost at home as more than 8.5-pt favorite. But the Titans changed all that with a 28-12 upset and are now 8-1 ATS all-time as underdogs of 7 or more under HC Mike Vrabel, pulling SEVEN outright upsets along the way including a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS this season.

Kansas City won its Divisional Round game against Houston 51-31, but anyone that watched knows it wasn’t that easy as the Chiefs had to rally from an early 24-0 hole. Outscoring the Texans 51-7 the rest of the way was quite an achievement, however, here they are up against a far more stout team on the defensive side of the ball. Even with last week’s ATS victory, the Chiefs are still only 2-10 ATS all-time at Arrowhead in the playoffs.

Tennessee has already beaten New England and Baltimore to get here while all Kansas City did was beat Houston, the team I had rated the lowest coming into the playoffs. My number for this game is +4.5 so there’s clear value on the Titans, who have already beaten the Chiefs this year, 35-32 (+4) in Nashville back in Week 10. I had Tennessee in that game. The Titans defense has allowed just 25 points in two playoff games while the offense features RB Henry, who has gone for 180+ yds in both games. Since Ryan Tannehill became the starting QB, Tennessee has gone 9-3 SU w/ a point differential of +82. While they were outgained by Baltimore, that was because of garbage time. I passed on the Titans last week, not here. 10* Tennessee

10* Clemson (8:00 ET): Not prejudiced at all by what happened with my Bowl Game of the Year on Ohio State, which lost despite the Buckeyes outgaining Clemson 516-417. If anything, I GAINED more respect for the Tigers, who have now won 29 straight games and are 6-2 SU all-time in the CFP. This program is now set to appear in the Championship Game for the 4th time in 5 seasons and is seeking its 3rd title in the last 4 seasons. Looking back to last year’s Title Game, I now feel like a bit of a “broken record” as I can’t believe I’m getting so many points with a team that has this kind of resume. Clemson can win this game. Take the points.

LSU obviously had no difficulty in the Peach Bowl, annihilating Oklahoma by a score of 63-28. QB Burrow threw for SEVEN TD passes in the 1H alone as the game was never in doubt. But it must be pointed out that there was a severe dropoff between the top three teams in CFP and Oklahoma. No one expected the Sooners to win once, let alone twice. Meanwhile, Clemson just beat the team many (myself included) considered the best team in the country most of this year. 

The big reason I faded Clemson in the Orange Bowl was I did not believe they should have been the favorite. But now they’re an underdog and I see plenty of value. Going back to the 2015 Title Game, Clemson has been a dog just six times. They are 5-1 ATS with four outright wins. All but one of those games were in the CFP. Those who think LSU is going to move the ball up and down the field against what is still the country’s top scoring defense (11.5 PPG allowed) are sorely mistaken. On the flip side, I expect more points from the Clemson offense here as they are freed from the poor field conditions at the Orange Bowl. The Tigers had the nation’s best scoring differential in the regular season and are 11-3 ATS. 10* Clemson

10* Minnesota (4:30 ET): Despite needing OT to get the ‘W’, I thought the Vikings looked very impressive in their Wild Card triumph in New Orleans. Not that it was unexpected on this end. I made the following statements in my analysis of the game. “I think we’re getting a great number here…. People REALLY seem to be underrating the Vikings.” Sure enough, they pulled the outright upset in a VERY tough place to win. Six seeds have not done well in the Divisional Rd recently (0-8 SU L8 years), but I actually had Minnesota rated as the 3rd best NFC team coming into these playoffs. Take the points. 

Before the season, San Francisco was my choice to be the most improved team in the league. Sure enough, they made the huge jump from 4-12 to 13-3 SU. But now they must deal with the weight of expectations and this is a roster with little in the way of postseason experience. Also, the 49ers have not done well as a favorite of six points or more. They are a money-burning 1-12-1 ATS in that role since 2014, including 0-6-1 ATS this season. Four of Minnesota’s six losses this year were by seven points or fewer. The last five games of the 49ers’ regular season were all decided in the final 10 seconds. 

Coming off the bye, the 49ers’ defense is as healthy as it’s been in awhile. But let’s not undercut what Minnesota’s defense is capable of as it just held the Saints to 324 total yards and 100 of that was from Taysom Hill. Niners QB Jimmy Garoppolo, making his 1st ever playoff start here, played the worst game of his career against Mike Zimmer’s defense. It was last year and he threw three interceptions in a 24-16 loss. The last nine quarterbacks to make their first playoff start have combined to go 2-7 ATS. For the Vikings, I’m not as concerned with WR Adam Thielen’s status now that RB Dalvin Cook is back. As you saw last week, this offense is a lot better with a healthy Cook (missed last two regular season games). 10* Minnesota

10* Philadelphia (4:40 ET): Road teams have dominated the Wild Card Round the last two years, going 8-0 ATS and 5-3 SU. However, none of them were favored as Seattle is here. You actually have to go all the way back to 2015, when three of the four home teams were getting points, to find the last home dog in the WC round. My numbers patently disagree with this line as they say the Eagles should be favored by 4 points! The reason for the discrepancy is not only due to all the Eagles' injuries, but also the disparity in records. But don't be fooled.  Take the points. 

Seattle is a very fraudulent 11-5 SU team. They finished w/ a +7 YTD point differential, 2nd worst among playoff teams (only Houston's -7 was worse). The Eagles, despite winning two fewer games, finished w/ a +31 YTD point differential. The Seahawks' point differential is more indicative of a 9-win team. It would be very fair to place this team among the very worst 11+ win teams in NFL history. Key to their success was Russell Wilson's playmaking, but more so extremely good fortune in close games. They were a league best 10-2 SU in games decided by eight points or less. That's right - they had only ONE win by more than 8 pts and it was against Arizona back in Wk 4! 

One of those close wins was here in Philadelphia back in Week 12, 17-9 as a 1-pt favorite. This is the only regular season rematch of the WC round. Obviously, it's very hard to beat the same team on the road twice in the same season and Philadelphia always seems to "turn it up a notch" here in the playoffs. Though this will be Carson Wentz's first career playoff start (really!), the Eagles have gone 5-0 ATS the L2 years in the postseason & they've been an underdog every time! They've pulled four outright upsets, the only SU loss coming LY in New Orleans, and of course won the Super Bowl two years ago. So Doug Pederson's team being "overlooked" is nothing new. Once again, they make the doubters pay. 10* Philadelphia

8* Minnesota (1:00 ET): As per usual, Kirk Cousins' poor record against good teams will be front and center here. The Vikings QB is a shocking 0-15 SU and 1-13-1 ATS against teams that won at least 12 regular season games. While I'm not willing to bet that Cousins can lead his team to an outright win in the Mercedes Benz Superdome on Sunday, I do see him and the Vikes keeping this one close. Maybe it's because they ended their regular season w/ B2B home losses, but people REALLY seem to be underrating Minnesota in this spot. It's the first time since Cousins arrived that they are getting more than seven points. My power ratings say the spread should only be -4.5. Take the points.

New Orleans has been on fire down the stretch and is a league-best 11-3 ATS since Week 3. That includes a 5-0 record when Drew Brees was out with an injury. But the Saints are far from "sure bet" in this instance. They are just 2-5 ATS their L7 home playoff games and each of their L7 playoff games (whether home or road) have been decided by eight points or less. They actually haven't won a playoff game by more than six points since the 2011 Wild Card Round vs. Detroit. Hot as they were down the stretch, the Saints had some good luck this year w/ an 8-1 SU record in games decided by eight points or less.

I believe we're getting a great number here. The spread would have been much shorter had this game been played just a few weeks ago. The Vikings did not have RB Dalvin Cook for either of the L2 regular season games (all offensive starters rested last week), so the offensive numbers from those games are misleading. Cook is set to return here, which will be a big difference maker. The Vikings have not lost three in a row since 2016 and are 2-0 ATS since when off B2B losses. Going into last week's meaningless regular season finale, they had been 25-9-1 ATS off a loss under HC Zimmer including 4-0 this season. Four of Minnesota's six losses this year have been by 7 pts or less. Their defense allows fewer PPG compared to the Saints. 8* Minnesota

10* Buffalo (4:30 ET): For many, the Bills making the playoffs was a surprise. I know I wasn't expecting it. They won only six games LY, but increased that number to 10 in 2019, which is one more win than they had when they made the playoffs in Sean McDermott's first season (2017). While they certainly rode a fairly easy schedule to get here, give Buffalo credit for outscoring its opponents by 55 points in the regular season, a top 10 differential and that's after losing the L2 games (rested starters in Wk 17). The defense is quite legit as it ranked 2nd in scoring (16.2 PPG) and 3rd in yards allowed (298.3 YPG). If it's true that "defense wins in the playoffs," then the Bills might be in better shape than we all think. 

Houston also went 10-6 SU, which was enough to win the AFC South. When Colts QB Andrew Luck shockingly hung up his cleats, most figured the Texans would run away with this division. But they were by no means a dominant team. They were the only playoff team to get outscored this year (-7 point differential). The defense really fell off a cliff in the second half, which was tied to J.J. Watt being absent from the lineup. While Watt's return for the playoffs seems to be the headline story here, make no mistake about it - the Bills still have a better defense than the Texans.

Buffalo infamously has not won a playoff game since 1995, the league third longest active drought. But Houston has hardly been a playoff juggernaut, going 1-3 SU/ATS under HC Bill O'Brien, including an outright loss here at home to the Colts LY. While Watt is back, the health of WR Will Fuller may be of greater concern for the Texans. QB DeShaun Watson simply isn't the same w/o Fuller. Bills QB Josh Allen was actually one of three QB's to run for more yds than Watson this year. While the Bills allowed the fewest yards per carry to QB's (2.8), the Texans allowed the second most (5.6). Excluding last week's game when they rested starters, the Bills are 10-5-1 ATS as dogs since Allen became the starter. They also went 6-2 SU on the road (6-1-1 ATS) averaging more points than they did at home. Houston is 8-15 ATS as a favorite the L3 seasons (nine outright losses) including 1-6 this season. Not only do the Bills have the better defense, they are the better team. Take the points. 10* Buffalo 

10* Ohio (3:30 ET): Of the 78 FBS teams that made it into a bowl game, we have Nevada rated as the worst. The Wolf Pack went 7-5 SU in what was a "down year" in the Mountain West Conference and had only two wins by more the seven points. Those two wins were against UTEP and New Mexico, who combined for a 3-21 SU record. Two stunning upsets - over Purdue and San Diego State (both coming as 17-pt dogs) - are what got them to Idaho for the Famous Potato Bowl. 

Ohio had a disappointing regular season as many, myself included, figured this was the year they'd finally win a MAC Championship for HC Frank Solich (15th season in Athens). But the Bobcats still are w/o a MAC Championship going all the way back to 1968. The reason for that is tey underachieved this year, losing four different times as a favorite. But even though neither played in the Conference Championship Game, we still consider OU right next to Western Michigan as the best teams the MAC had to offer this year. The Bobcats offense averaged nearly 35 PPG and is led by QB Nathan Rourke, who threw for 2,676 yards w/ a 20-5 TD-INT ratio. 

Adding to the list of Nevada issues is that five players have been suspended for this game. Four of them are defensive starters. Three are among the top six tacklers on an already suspect defense (32.1 PPG allowed). Three of the four suspended defensive starters won't play at all, the fourth will miss only the 1st half. The reason for the suspensions was a fight w/ UNLV at the end of the regular season finale. The Wolf Pack were outscored by nearly 11 PPG this year, a stunning margin for a bowl team. Basically the entire defensive coaching staff was let go after the loss to the UNLV. While this number has already moved some, that's okay as we have Ohio as almost a two-touchdown favorite for this one! 10* Ohio 

10* Indiana (7:00 ET): Indiana has not won a bowl game since the '91 Copper. Granted, they've been to only four since, but this program is dying for something resembling a "marquee" victory. Beating Tennessee in the Gator Bowl would certainly qualify. The Hoosiers have perennially struggled to beat the top teams they face as is evident by a shocking 1-16 SU record as an underdog under HC Tom Allen (third year here). But A LOT of those games have been close. My own power rankings say IU should be the favorite here, so I'll take them with the added value.

Things were not looking good for Tennessee after a 1-4 SU start that included a home loss to Georgia State. But credit HC Jeremy Pruitt for turning things around in Knoxville as the Vols finished on a 6-1 SU run w/ the lone loss coming to Alabama. But as far as SEC schedules go, the one UT made its run against was pretty easy. It has only two wins over bowl teams, those being Kentucky (by 4) and Mississippi State (by 10). They lost to Florida, Georgia and Bama by an average of nearly four touchdowns per game. I'm really not sure why the Volunteers were bet to the role of favorite here. 

Admittedly, you could say some of the same things about Indiana as they didn't beat a single bowl team and all of its losses were to teams ranked at the time. But I come back to the Hoosiers wanting that elusive bowl win. In the two years before Allen's arrival, they were close, losing by three in overtime to Duke (Pinstripe) then by two to Utah (Foster Farms). The latter was actually Allen's first game as HC (was interim). I'm trusting my own numbers and for the Hoosiers to be the more motivated side here. 10* Indiana

10* Georgia (8:45 ET): A stunning number of Georgia players (13!) will be sitting out here in order to avoid injury. As a result, the 5th ranked team in the country has been bet down considerably for this Sugar Bowl matchup w/ Baylor on New Year's Day. Almost all the players that are sitting out can be counted among the two-deep on the roster and six are starters. But it sure seems as if people are "forgetting" how good the Bulldogs were this year. Those who do suit up are going to be motivated and with the number being bet down so much, I'm willing to lay it!

Georgia has one of the best defenses in the country. Sure, they gave up 37 points to LSU in the SEC Championship Game. But given how the top-ranked Tigers looked against Oklahoma in the CFP Semifinal Saturday, that's really not all that bad. It was actually 12 pts below LSU's season average and one of only three times the Tigers were held below 40 pts in the regular season. I know Baylor HC Matt Rhule has an incredible ATS record when getting points (34-14 all-time). But even with QB Charlie Brewer back under center (suffered concussion in Big 12 Champ Game), I believe the Bears are going to struggle to score here. 

Those Georgia players that do take the field New Year's Night will be motivated. Not just because everyone is seemingly "writing them off," but also because of what happened in this game last year. The Bulldogs were 12-point favorites against Texas, came in and gave an uninspired effort and lost outright 28-21. I had the Under on that game, which was also a double-digit winner. I don't see history repeating itself w/ UGA laying an egg in B2B Sugar Bowls. This is great value as Baylor overachieved this year, winning four games by less than three points or in overtime. 10* Georgia 

8* Western Michigan (12:30 ET): If Western Michigan doesn't show up motivated for the First Responder Bowl on Monday afternoon (in Dallas), then I don't know what to say. They lost the regular season finale (as a 10-point favorite) at Northern Illinois, which cost them a chance to play for the MAC Championship. The Broncos were probably the best team in the MAC this year. They beat both teams that ended up in the Championship Game - Miami by 22 and Central Michigan by 16. They have both the Offensive and Defensive Players of the Year from the conference.

Western Kentucky went 3-9 SU last year. So not many people were expecting a bowl appearance in Tyson Helton's first season in Bowling Green. But the Hilltoppers improved all the way to 8-4 SU on the back of pulling five outright upsets, one of them 45-19 over Arkansas, which was ironic because that's where QB Ty Storey transfered from. I am surprised that WKU is favored here. They were a favorite just four times in the regular season, none of those against bowl teams (one was a FCS team). They faced only four bowl teams all year and went 2-2 SU in those games (beat Southern Miss & UAB).

Another motivating factor for Western Michigan here is their 1-8 SU record in bowls. They got embarrassed out in Idaho LY by BYU 47-18. I realize that the Broncos had just one win outside Kalamazoo this year, but I believe they are the better team here. Thus, getting points, I'm on board. They were an underdog in only four games in the regular season and the only one where they were getting more than 3.5 points was against Michigan State. Western Kentucky is just 4-12-1 ATS its L17 games as a favorite w/ eight outright losses.  Take the points. 8* Western Michigan 

10* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): HC Dan Quinn has improbably saved his job in Atlanta thanks to a 5-2 run down the stretch. (GM Thomas Dimitroff will be returning as well). While the decision by Falcons' owner Arthur Blank had to be a nice "late Christmas gift" for the Quinn and Dimitroff families, I think it saps a lot of the supposed motivation we were supposed to see from this team in Week 17. Before the decision was made on Saturday, I was reading a lot of Falcons backers that felt the motivation to preserve their coach's job would carry the team here.

Remember that one of Atlanta's two losses in these last seven games came to the team they facing in Week 17, that being Tampa Bay. The Bucs (7-8) have a better record than the Falcons (6-9) and looked every bit the better team back in Week 12 when they won 35-22 as a three-point underdog. For us, the Bucs were a signature *10* Ultimate Power release that day. The score was even a bit misleading as Tampa Bay missed THREE extra points and Atlanta scored a TD in garbage time.

While Atlanta seems to be getting a lot of credit for how its played in the second half of the season, the Bucs are the better team and have also improved during the same timeframe. Really, they should have a better record than 7-8 SU as they've outgained and outscored their opponents this season. Last week was a classic "false final" as they outgained the Texans by over 200 yds, but lost by a field goal thanks to FOUR James Winston interceptions (one returned for a TD). While Winston's 28 INT's lead the league, he also has 31 TD passes and leads the league in passing yards. Despite missing both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin last week, he still threw for 335 yards, so the absences hardly hurt the offense. My numbers suggest TB should be laying almost a touchdown here. 10* Tampa Bay

8* Cincinnati (1:00 ET): Backing the team with the worst record in the league may not sound good on paper, but Cincinnati is "free and clear" here having already sewn up the #1 pick in next spring's Draft. Were they in a position where a win might hurt them (i.e. draft position), the tendency would be to lay off. But expect the Bengals to come out motivated for Week 17 against division rival Cleveland in what looks like a very winnable game. Meanwhile, the underachieving Browns may very well mail this one in. Take the points. 

Cincinnati almost won last week, but came up just short in overtime, losing at Miami 38-35. They had an improbable rally just to get to OT, scoring two touchdowns and two 2-pt conversions in the final 30 seconds to tie the game. QB Andy Dalton is still auditioning to be a starting QB for next year (likely somewhere else), so he won't be phoning it in here. Despite coming at 1-14 SU, the Bengals are better than you think as last week was their 8th loss by one score. Back in Week 14, they outgained the Browns by 118 yards (451-333) w/ a 27-17 edge in first downs, but lost 27-19 as Cleveland had an early pick-six. 

The Browns have been miserable as a favorite this year, a reflection of their disappointing season. They've lost four of the nine games in which they've been favored. Three of those four losses have been on the road. Two of those have been to backup quarterbacks and the other was by two scores at Arizona two weeks ago. Freddie Kitchens is in way over his head as a NFL head coach and was yet another poor hire by the Browns. 8* Cincinnati

8* Carolina (1:00 ET): New Orleans appears to be "peaking" at the right time as they've won five of their last six games to get to 12-3 SU. They still have a chance to earn a first round bye. In addition to obviously needing to win themselves, they would need either a loss by the Packers (unlikely) or by the 49ers. If both the 49ers and Packers were to lose, then the Saints could even move up to the #1 seed in the NFC. But because of these playoff scenarios, this line is inflated. I'm taking the points.

The Panthers' season has gone off the rails as they fired Ron Rivera (foolish) a few weeks back. That came after four straight losses and the streak has now hit seven under interim HC Perry Fewell. Last week was a horrific showing in Indianapolis as they lost 38-6 by giving up two special teams touchdowns. They were also -3 in turnovers. This is a different team than the one that should have beaten the Saints in New Orleans back in Week 12 (lost 34-31). Will Grier is now starting at QB as opposed to Kyle Allen. But still, this number is way too large. 

Interestingly enough, the Saints have lost outright as a division favorite of -6 or more each of the last two years in Week 17. Both losses came with them having clinched a playoff berth. Ironically, last year's loss was to a Carolina team that came in on a seven-game losing streak. While it may seem like the Saints are peaking now, they did trail Tennessee on the road 14-0 last week. Just too many points to lay in a NFL road game. 8* Carolina

10* Ohio State (8:00 ET): One bad first half (Big 10 Champ Game vs. Wisconsin) and it seems as if everyone is flocking to get off the Ohio State bandwagon. That has me scratching my head as the Buckeyes were the best team in the country during the regular season, covering the spread by an average of 11.8 PPG, the highest mark of any team. I did NOT agree with the Buckeyes being moved down from #1 to #2 in the final CFP Rankings and think they now offer a tremendous value as an underdog (1st time all season) going for revenge against the team that embarrassed them in their last CFP appearance. Take the points. 

Now Clemson is not without its own merits. They are the defending National Champions and come in with the best ATS record in the country at 10-3 (covered 4 in a row). But it's difficult (for me) to look past the massive difference in strength of schedule that exists between them and Ohio State. The ACC was easily the weakest of the Power 5 conferences this year as no other team finished inside the top 40 of my own personal power rankings! The only Top 40 team Clemson faced was Texas A&M and that was early in the year at home. While the Tigers appeared to peak down the stretch, they were going up against some really depleted and overmatched opponents. 

You can go ahead and throw out that 1H Ohio State played vs. Wisconsin. It was a really tough spot for the Buckeyes as they went into the game not even needing to win to make the playoff. The fact they still ended up winning by double digits is quite impressive. Nine of Ohio State's wins this year came against teams that are currently in my Top 40 and remember they won every game by double digits. Compare that to the one Top 40 win Clemson has. Once I saw the Buckeyes open as the underdog, I knew this had to be my top bowl selection. The only time they have been a dog since 2014 was LY's game vs. Michigan, which they ended up winning 62-39. The program has won outright the L7 times its been a dog! 10* Ohio State

8* Notre Dame (12:00 ET): I get the sense coming out of South Bend that the Fighting Irish faithful view the 2019 season, Brian Kelly's 10th leading the program, as a step back. I suppose that makes sense. Notre Dame was in the CFP last year, though that certainly didn't end well. But the Irish did go 10-2 SU this year. One of those losses was to Georgia and they covered the spread. The other was to Michigan, which was NOT a good performance, but that game was also played in a driving rainstorm. Since going down to the Wolverines, ND has won five in a row and is 4-1 ATS. 

Iowa State is looking to finish 8-5 SU for a third straight year under HC Matt Campbell. Four of their five losses this year were by a TD or less. They did spend a good part of the season in the Top 25, but also lost three of their last five games to fall out of the rankings. Ranked opponents were generally the ones that gave the Cyclones trouble as they lost 2 of 3 such games and that doesn't even include a loss to Baylor, who was not ranked at the time. The one win over a ranked opponent was Texas, who did not finish the year in the Top 25.

Notre Dame is #15, which is where they should be. Interesting is that both of the Fighting Irish's losses came as dogs. They were a perfect 10-0 SU as favorites, covering the spread in all but three of those games. While ISU's record as a dog (14-4 ATS w/ six outright wins L3 yrs) must be respected, I believe this line should be closer to a touchdown than a field goal. Because they've struggled in bowls recently, I expect Notre Dame to come out motivated for this one. 8* Notre Dame

8* Michigan State (3:20 ET): There's no denying that Michigan State underachieved this year. That can be quickly confirmed by their 3-9 ATS record. But I'm still surprised to see Sparty laying such a short number in this year's Pinstripe Bowl to a clearly inferior Wake Forest side. I still consider Mark Dantonio's team to be a top 30 team (in the country) despite its pedestrian 6-6 SU mark. There are issues offensively, but the same can be said for their opponent, who is dealing with uncertainty at QB and a depleted receiving corps. I'm going to lay the short number here.

Wake Forest has won and covered three straight bowl games under HC Dave Clawson. But there is some uncertainty over who will be starting at QB in the Pinstripe Bowl after Jamie Newman got hurt in the final regular season game. If Newman can't go, it will be Sam Hartman under center. Regardless if it's Newman or Hartman, the Wake Forest receiving corps has been hit hard by injuries this year. All the injuries resulted in the Demon Deacons losing three of their last four games. They haven't won a game outside of Winston-Salem since beating Boston College 27-24 in the final weekend of September. Their only other road win was against Rice. 

The Pinstripe Bowl is unique in that it is played in cold weather (NYC). Sure enough, that's led to the Big 10 (more accustomed to the cold) going 4-1 SU/ATS vs. the ACC in the bowl's short history, the only loss coming in overtime. The Big 10 is clearly better than the ACC this year. While their offense struggles, the Spartans have a massive defensive edge here as WF gives up nearly 35 PPG away from home. Being in a bowl was clearly important for MSU as they won their final two regular season games to get here. Sparty is 7-1 SU/6-2 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 pts the L3 seasons. WF is 1-5 SU/2-4 ATS as an underdog in the same price range. 8* Michigan State

8* Miami FL (4:00 ET): Miami does not have a good recent history in bowl games. They've gone 1-8 ATS in their last nine, including last year's complete "no-show" vs. Wisconsin (lost 35-3). This year, "The U" heads to Shreveport, LA for what will be a de facto road game against Louisiana Tech in the Independence Bowl. Despite that history of failing to "get up" for bowl games, I am shocked to see how this number has been bet down so much. The Hurricanes are simply more talented than their opponent, which played the weakest schedule in all of the FBS. Yes, some players have elected to sit this one out for Miami (preparing for NFL Draft), but I believe the holdovers will indeed "show up" Thursday afternoon. Lay the points. 

I thought Miami would contend for the ACC's Coastal Division title. Interestingly enough, they did defeat division champ Virginia 17-9 in a game they were favored to win! They also easily could have beaten the team favored to win this year's Orange Bowl, that being #9 Florida, but blew a 4Q lead in that one (season opener). Three terrible outright losses down to the stretch (Ga Tech, FIU, Duke) definitely took the shine off Manny Diaz's team. But they still have a tremendous defense that ranked 13th in the country in yards allowed (307.6 per game). Louisiana Tech simply did not face a team this talented all year w/ the possible exception of Texas, who crushed them by 31 points.

La Tech's recent bowl history is good as they have won five straight. But the Bulldogs also have to shake off some disappointment from the way they ended the regular season. QB J'Mar Smith was among the key suspensions down the stretch that cost this team the chance to play in the C-USA Title Game. The suspended players are all back, but it's difficult to look past the fact that La Tech is just 2-3 SU vs. bowl teams w/ those wins coming over FIU and Southern Miss. Also, the defense is going to be without its top cornerback as he's sitting out for the Draft. I think the Bulldogs' offense is going to struggle against this Miami defense and the undervalued favorite (which should be laying double digits) is going to come through  8* Miami FL

10* Minnesota (8:15 ET): Green Bay may very well end up winning this division, but in the opinion of myself and many others, Minnesota is the best team in the NFC North. The Vikings have a top four point differential in the league entering Week 16 (+119), more than double that of the Packers (+47). In the first head to head meeting (back in Week 2), which was at Lambeau Field, Green Bay did win 21-16. But the Vikings outgained them 7.0 to 4.9 on a per play basis, a huge margin for any game, let alone for the loser. At home (where they're a perfect 6-0 SU), look for the Vikings to get their revenge Monday night. 

Green Bay winning that first meeting in spite of the yard per play differential is somewhat emblematic of the kind of "fluky" season that they are having. Despite being 11-3, they've been outgained on both a per game and per play basis. That's very rare. They are also a very fortunate 7-1 SU in games decided by eight points or less. That YTD point differential is not what you'd expect from an 11-3 team. There have been a number of games throughout the year where the Packers probably did not "deserve" to win, but did. One of them was a Monday night game at Detroit where they trailed nearly the entire game but won 23-22. 

The Vikings are the league's only undefeated team at home. They aren't just winning these home games either; they're blowing teams out by an average margin of 13.5 PPG. Now a lot will be made of Kirk Cousins' 0-8 ATS record on MNF and the fact he'll be without RB Dalvin Cook here. But Green Bay is just 2-6 ATS its last eight appearances on MNF. Cousins is also 13-3 ATS as a single digit favorite, including 8-1 ATS at home, since joining the Vikings. Green Bay has not won here at U.S. Bank Stadium since it opened in 2016. Bottom line is the Vikings are the better team here. 10* Minnesota 

8* Chicago (8:20 ET): The Bears saw their already slim playoff hopes dashed last week and to make matters worse it came at the hands of old nemesis Aaron Rodgers. At the start of the season, I called the Bears a prime candidate to regress and regress they have as they've dropped from 12 to 7 wins (w/ two games still to play). But in spite of said regression, not everything is bad in the Windy City. They've got a defense that's still giving up only 18.1 PPG. While they may have lost 21-13 to the Packers last week, the Bears actually finished with a 415-292 edge in total yards and had eight more first downs. It was a -3 turnover margin that bit them in the end.

Kansas City has won the AFC West again and is just looking to improve its playoff position these last two weeks. As a division champ, they could still finish anywhere from the #1 to #4 seed. A first round bye, which the top two seeds get, is looking less likely after New England's win Saturday. But still this is a team that obviously must be respected as they come in riding a four-game win streak, during which they've even played some defense! The last four opponents have scored a combined 45 points, a big reason why the Chiefs are also 4-0 ATS during that stretch. 

In taking the points here, there obviously is a bit of concern over whether or not the Bears' offense will be able to "keep up" with the Chiefs. But I expect QB Mitchell Trubisky, who was infamously drafted ahead of Patrick Mahomes (and DeShaun Watson), to come out motivated for the final home game. Trubisky has played better down the stretch and even owns the NFL's longest active streak of five games without an interception. He's also 7-2 ATS in his career in primetime games. Don't discount the ability of the Bears' defense to keep KC's offense in check either. Then there's the homefield advantage as the L3 seasons have seen Chicago go 15-8 ATS at Soldier Field, including 6-1-1 ATS when getting points. This spread was bet up and is now simply too high, having hit a key number. 8* Chicago

10* LA Chargers (4:05 ET): Looking at the AFC West standings, something immediately jumps out to me. No, I'm not talking about the fact that the Chiefs have already clinched another division title. It's the fact that the Raiders, with a -112 YTD point differential, are somehow still in second place. Meanwhile, the Chargers are in last place despite having actually outscored opponents this season. LA can at least pull even with Oakland in the standings (were they to win this week), and I think they will. I'll lay the points as the Chargers are clearly the superior team here despite having one less win coming in. 

Last week's game was all too emblematic of the kind of season the Chargers are having. They basically had the same number of total yards as the Vikings (345-344). But SEVEN turnovers resulted in a 39-10 loss. Another game worth pointing to is what happened the first time they faced the Raiders. That game, which took place on a Thursday night, saw LA lose the turnover battle 3-0. They outgained the Raiders and had eight more first downs. But if you can't protect the football, you're not going to win in this league. Still, last week was the first time all year that the Chargers lost a game by more than a touchdown. 

Oakland was once 6-4 and getting talked up as a potential playoff darkhorse. Since that time, the Silver and Black have gotten badly exposed, losing four straight. Three of those losses were by a combined 83 points. Then came last week's gag job vs. Jacksonville, the final game they'll ever play in Oakland. I was on the Jaguars, noting the Raiders' poor point differential, which by the way now is 4th worst in the league. This is a really bad team as five of their eight losses have been by at least 18 points. 10* LA Chargers

8* Tennessee (1:00 ET): Saturday's win by the Texans officially ended the Titans' hopes of winning the division (AFC South). Losing here at home to the Texans last week really stung, but Tennessee can still make the playoffs as a Wild Card. It's down to them or Pittsburgh. Let us not forget that last week was just the second time the Titans lost since Ryan Tannehill took over at QB for the ineffective Marcus Mariota (6-2 SU). My power rankings say they should be favored in this spot and under HC Mike Vrabel, the team is 4-2 ATS as a home dog w/ four outright wins. 

New Orleans is off a very impressive performance on Monday Night Football. They throttled the Colts 34-7 to clinch their own division. Drew Brees set two NFL records in the win, one for single-game completion percentage (29 for 30, 96.7%) and he also became the NFL's all-time leader in TD passes. Coming off high-profile win like that, it's no wonder the public loves Brees and the Saints here, but it's a short week and now they are on the road (outdoors too). The Titans' defense (19.9 PPG allowed) is a lot better than the Colts, so look for Brees to be far less comfortable this week. 

I was skeptical at first, but Tannehill has done a great job as the starter for Tennessee, leading the league in yards per pass attempt (9.5). Reports on the status of RB Henry are conflicting, but the Saints have given up an average of 28.2 points in four games vs. top 8 rushing offenses (Titans are 8th in rushing). A change at kicker will be a positive as the Titans are last in the league in field goals made. Tennessee easily could have scored more last week as they gained 6.4 yards per play. But they had a FG blocked and Tannehill threw an INT near the goal line.  8* Tennessee 

***Note: This analysis was written prior to the announcement that several FAU players would be suspended. But I am still recommending a play on FAU at the current number!***

10* Florida Atlantic (3:30 ET): The Boca Raton Bowl is a home game for FAU, who won this very bowl game 50-3 (over Akron) two years ago to cap an incredible first season under Lane Kiffin. Ironically, this same bowl is where the next chapter of FAU football will begin as Kiffin has moved on to Ole Miss and won't be coaching Saturday. Kiffin departs having gone 26-13 SU in his three seasons in Boca Raton, twice winning 10+ games and a C-USA Championship. Willie Taggart, fresh off failing over at Florida State, will be Kiffin's replacement. But DC Glenn Spencer will serve as the interim for the bowl.

SMU was shaping up to be a really nice story, starting 8-0 for the first time since 1982 (program's heyday, pre "Death Penalty") and there was talk that Sonny Dykes' team would be making it to the Cotton Bowl, which would have been one heck of a story. But the Mustangs dropped two of their final four regular season games and were pretty much an afterthought in the AAC race going into the final weekend. That shouldn't take away from what the team has accomplished in two years under Dykes, but the only bowl teams it beat were Arkansas State, Temple and Tulane. 

Were it not for Kiffin leaving, you'd have to think FAU would be the favorite here. A coach leaving is obviously a very big deal, but this is still a home game for the Owls, who have won six in a row. There were no signs of "packing it in" in the C-USA Title Game when they dismantled UAB 49-6 on this field. I was 3-0 ATS taking FAU this year, including that C-USA Title Game. They are +14.5 PPG at home and it should be pointed out that since opening 0-2 (lost to UCF and Ohio St!), the Owls are 10-1 SU and have scored 31 or more pts in every game but one! They aren't as strong as the team that covered this game as a 22-point favorite two years ago. But they shouldn't be getting points either. 10* Florida Atlantic

10* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): Houston took a big step towards winning its second straight AFC South title Sunday by beating Tennessee 24-21 as a three-point underdog. However, they were outgained in the contest (432-374) and gave up 6.4 yards per play. I had to sweat out an Under, which was my 10* Total of the Year. The fact is I was lucky to win it as the Texans defense forced only three punts (just 1 in the second half) as it predictably is not the same since JJ Watt went down with a pec injury. I believe an explosive Bucs offense is going to be able to have its way in this one. 

Credit the job HC Bruce Arians is doing in his first season in Tampa Bay. When this team was 3-7 SU, they easily could have rolled over and "packed it in" for the season. Instead, the Bucs have won four in a row for the first time since 2016. While they haven't beaten anyone the caliber of Houston during this stretch, the Bucs have beaten two other AFC South teams - Indianapolis & Jacksonville. Despite QB Jameis Winston's propensity for turning the ball over, he is leading an attack that has scored 38 pts B2B weeks. Winston has thrown for 467 and 446 yards in those games. 

It was a mistake I made going against the Bucs last week as they easily beat the undermanned Lions 38-17. But I didn't like them laying points on the road. Now they are a home dog in a situation where my own power ratings say they should be a slight favorite! The Texans are 1-5 ATS as favorites this season. You might be shocked to learn that the Bucs have the league's 13th best point differential (+18), which is just ahead of the division leading Texans. Houston can clinch the AFC South this week w/ a win here, but w/ a rematch against Tennessee set to take place next week, doesn't it seem almost "preordained" that that game would decide the division? 10* Tampa Bay

8* Jacksonville (4:05 ET): Well, we're going with some real "beauties" in this 3-pack, no? This Jags-Raiders game is as ugly as any on the slate not named "Dolphins @ Giants." While Oakland would seem to be a respectable team because of its 6-7 SU record, they have lost three straight games - all by 21 points or more. They've failed to cover four in a row. There may not be a team w/ a more misleading record in the league right now as the Silver and Black have a YTD point differential of -108, just seven points better than the 2-11 Giants. The Raiders should not be laying a touchdown to anybody right now. 

Not to be outdone, Jacksonville is on a five-game losing streak - SU and ATS - and all five losses have been by at least 17 points. It hasn't mattered whether it's been Gardner Minshew II or Nick Foles in at QB, the results have not been pretty. Last week the Jags got thoroughly outclassed at home by the Chargers, losing 45-10 in a game where they were outgained by more than a 2:1 margin. Still it's interesting to see how the market has shifted against Jacksonville for this one. It was never more than a 4.5-point underdog in any of those L5 games. 

This is likely to be the final game the Raiders ever play in Oakland. They are scheduled to move to Las Vegas for the 2020 season. While I'm sure there will be some emotion in the "Black Hole," that still doesn't justify the Raiders laying more than 3.5 points for just the second time all season. The first was here at home vs. Cincinnati (were -12.5) and they only won that game 17-10. They haven't won since. Oakland has gone off as the favorite in only three games all season! I see Jacksonville playing better than usual this week as these are two teams I have rated very evenly. 8* Jacksonville

8* Detroit (1:00 ET): The Lions' season has taken a drastic downturn with six straight losses. They've lost 9 of 10 since a 2-0-1 start and what makes that all the more frustrating is they've been in a majority of these games. Last week's 20-7 loss to the Vikings was the first game all season in which the Lions never led. Incredibly, they have led or at least been tied in the 4th quarter in all but three games (two vs. Minnesota, one vs. Dallas). Injuries have certainly taken a toll, but I still don't believe they should be getting more than a field goal this week at home vs. the Buccaneers. 

Tampa Bay has fought its way back to 6-7 SU by winning three in row. They probably deserved a better fate than pushing as three-point favorites in 38-35 win last week over Indianapolis, considering they outgained the Colts 542-309. But because they turned the ball over four times (three interceptions by Jameis Winston), they actually needed to come back from a two touchdown deficit. Winston is now dealing w/ a thumb injury, which won't help his ball security issues. Note Tampa Bay has not won four in a row since 2016. This is the most points they've had to lay in any road game since the 2013 season opener (which they lost outright to the Jets). 

My own power rankings have this spread as a pick 'em. Yes, I am aware that Detroit has managed all of 17 points in the last seven quarters w/ third stringer David Blough at QB. But that doesn't change the fact TB shouldn't be laying this many points. Like the Lions, the Bucs have experienced a six-game ATS losing streak this year. They have only four wins by more than a field goal. The injured Winston won't have Mike Evans to throw to either as the Bucs top WR may be done for the season. Detroit's secondary only has five interceptions all season, but they could easily double that number here. 8* Detroit.  

8* Carolina (1:00 ET): When talking about teams whose season went south in a hurry, few can compare to the Panthers, who shockingly fired HC Ron Rivera two weeks ago. The coaching change failed to turn the tide last week in Atlanta where the Panthers lost 40-20 as 3.5-point underdogs. They've now lost five in a row - by an average of 13 points per game. But both blowouts came against Atlanta. The other three losses have all been one-score games as have been five of the team's eight total losses this season. In the first home game under interim HC Perry Fewell, I am expecting an inspired effort. 

Seattle has had just the opposite luck as Carolina this season. They entered last week's game w/ the Rams at 10-2 w/ a YTD point differential of +36. No team in NFL history had ever won 10 of its first 12 games w/ a point differential that small. Sure enough, we faded them out in LA last week and they were beaten 28-12, further exposing that point differential. I've said it before and I'll say it again here. The Seahawks have been more lucky than good this season by going a ridiculously fortunate 9-2 SU in one-score games. Their ONLY win that came by more than eight points was Week 4 at Arizona. 

I know the bloom is off the "Kyle Allen rose" and that the Panthers defense has had some real difficulties stopping teams of late. But, with "the world" figuring to be on Seattle this week, this is a great chance to step in and "buy low" on the home dog. This is a spread that should be no larger than a field goal. Seattle's rushing attack took a hit w/ Rashaad Penny tearing his ACL last week. The Panthers have also been unfortunate to be -12 in turnover margin during their 5-game losing streak. They get these issues correct this week and at least cover against a Seattle team that isn't as good as its record. This will be the Seahawks' FIFTH trip to the Eastern Time Zone. 8* Carolina

10* NY Jets (8:20 ET): With three games left in the season, the Jets have already improved on last year's season-win total. This despite a 1-7 SU start w/ QB Darnold missing time due to mono. The Jets were a team that I predicted would improve upon LY's win total. Granted, I thought they'd win have more wins than five at this point and maybe they would had Darnold not missed those three games (all losses). Certainly no one is expecting the Flyboys to win Thursday as they visit Baltimore to face the 11-2 Ravens. But I do think they can stay within the number. Take the points. 

The Ravens emerging as the NFL's best team is NOT something I saw coming. But here we are and they have the best record, best point differential and highest scoring offense. They are 3-0 SU against the league's other 10+ win teams. But the last two games have seen John Harbaugh's team cut it a little close as they needed a last second FG to get by the 49ers here at home, then last week it was just a 7-point win at Buffalo. But the biggest concern right now is the health of QB Lamar Jackson, who is listed as questionable for this game due to a quad injury. He announced Wednesday that he would play, but the short week does him no favors.

Another reason to be concerned about Jackson this week is that his left tackle Ronnie Stanley is listed as doubtful due to a concussion. The Ravens have only been double digit favorites three times and failed to cover twice. The Jets have won four of their last five and with the exception of that ugly loss in Cincinnati, they haven't been beaten by more than 14 pts since the MNF disaster vs. the Patriots. Note the Jets defense leads the league in yards per carry allowed (3.03) which is huge when facing the Ravens. This play stands regardless if Jackson plays or not. 10* NY Jets

10* LA Rams (8:20 ET): The line move here is certainly interesting as it would seem to support my own previously stated skepticism of Seattle. The Seahawks moved up to the #1 spot in the NFC w/ Monday's 37-30 win over Minnesota. They are now 10-2 SU, but that record comes with a bit of an asterisk as they are 9-1 in one-score games. That's an awful lot of good luck as there are four NFC teams (including 6-7 Dallas) that have better YTD point differentials. Bottom line is Seattle is "due" to drop one and we don't see them sweeping the season series from the Rams, who have revenge for a 30-29 loss back in Week 5, which was also in primetime. 

The season appeared to be getting away from the Rams when they were blown out 45-6 by Baltimore in their own Monday night appearance. But they bounced back last week with one of their most complete efforts of 2019. They beat the Cardinals 34-7 w/ a 549-198 edge in total yards. A defense, which had been badly gashed by Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, held Arizona to just 3.2 yards per play. I just can't see the Rams losing B2B primetime home games. Nor can I see the Seahawks winning outright for a fourth time on the road as an underdog. From a scheduling perspective, the Rams have the edge as Seattle is working on a short week. 

For that Week 5 meeting, Seattle was only a 1.5-pt favorite at home. So the oddsmakers have definitely adjusted, but I think they've overreacted. Again, the Seahawks having all these close wins is simply not a sustainable blueprint for success. The Rams were a missed 44-yard FG away from taking that first meeting. They finished w/ slightly more total yards. A big difference between then and now is you can expect a bigger workload from RB Todd Gurley. The Rams defense has allowed 17 pts or less in five of the last six games, the loss to Baltimore two weeks ago being the only exception. 10* LA Rams

8* Buffalo (1:00 ET): Baltimore has established itself as the best team in the league in many people's eyes, including my own. However, there comes a time when the pointspread eventually catches up w/ you and for the Ravens, it was last week when they failed to cover in a 20-17 win over the 49ers. That snapped a 5-game ATS win streak, but didn't stop oddsmakers from asking them to lay a pretty big number on the road this week to a good Buffalo team. My own power rankings say this spread should be closer to a "pick 'em," so there's plenty of value on the dog. 

I took the Bills on Thanksgiving as they upset the Cowboys, 26-15 as a six-point road dog. In my analysis for that game, I talked about how many continue to hold Buffalo's weak scheduled against them. But the bottom line is that this team now has a top 6 point differential (+69). The defense is allowing just 15.7 PPG, fewer than Baltimore and third best in the entire league. Only once this season have the Bills allowed more than 21 pts in a game. This is a team uniquely suited to slow down Lamar Jackson and the Ravens' offense. The Bills are 4-1 ATS as underdogs this season, winning three of those games outright. 

Baltimore was held to just 283 total yards last week by San Francisco and outgained substantially on a per play basis. While much will be made of the Bills defense's susceptibility to the run, they've only allowed 211 yards rushing (total!) the L3 weeks. Some of that can be attributed to being ahead and forcing the opponent to pass, but even the Cowboys' ground game could only muster 103 yards against them. Having a few extra days to prepare is also huge for this Bills defense. 8* Buffalo

8* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): The Bucs have finally "woken up" and started to play better. They've won B2B games by double digits, beating the Falcons and Jaguars, both on the road. Now they try for that elusive cover at home. Prior to winning each of the L2 weeks, TB had failed to cover seven straight games. But as noted when I made them a *10* ULTIMATE POWER release two weeks ago, there's plenty of talent here and the team would have a better overall record had it not shot themselves in the foot on a regular basis. I think they'll continue their strong play at home this week. Lay the short number. 

Speaking of shooting itself in the foot, the Colts really let one get away last week vs. Tennessee. An Adam Vinateri FG attempt was blocked and returned for the game-winning TD. It was the Colts' fourth loss in the last five games. Vinateri won't play this week, which is probably for the best as he's been downright awful. But WR T.Y. Hilton's absence looms large. The team is 1-4 ATS w/o him as opposed to 6-1-1 ATS when he suits up. This Colts' offense hasn't done much in the way of scoring the L2 games, scoring 17 pts each time in defeat.

Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS at home this year. They are the only team in the league yet to cover a game at home. Note those records include a "home game" in London. The Bucs have performed better on a per play basis this year than have the Colts. They do deserve to be the favorite here as Colts HC Frank Reich is just 3-8-1 ATS against teams w/ losing records. Against non-division foes this year, the Colts are just 2-5 SU. 8* Tampa Bay

8* Virginia (7:30 ET): After what they did for me last week, how could I not come back with the Hoos here? As my *10* College Football Game of the Year last Friday, they ended what had been a 15-year losing streak to rival Va Tech w/ an outright 39-30 win as 2.5-point dogs. Thus all seven teams in the ACC Coastal have now won the division in the last 7 years. Hopefully, Virginia is not just "happy to be here" as defending Nat'l Champ Clemson awaits them in the Conference Championship Game. I'm willing to bank on that NOT being the case and will grab a HUGE number.

Anyone who follows my plays knows I have no loyalty to any team. This play is clearly more about the number than what Virginia did last week. It's actually the second year in a row Clemson comes into the ACC Title Game as a four-TD favorite. They covered last year, beating Pitt 42-10, but that was an inferior foe to what they'll be facing here. Yes, the #3 ranked Tigers have destroyed everything in their path the last two months, winning seven straight by an average of more than 41 PPG. Their only ATS loss during that stretch was to FCS Wofford as they were laying 49 in a 45-point win. But Virginia is the strongest team Clemson will have faced these L2 months. 

It has not always been pretty for Virginia, but they've averaged over 41 PPG during a current four-game win streak. Their largest loss (in terms of margin) this season was 15 to Notre Dame and that was a game that they actually led at the half. They still ended up outgaining the Fighting Irish, but could not overcome five turnovers, one of which was a fumble returned for a touchdown. The other two Cavaliers' losses were by 7 and 9 points. As we saw last week, QB Bryce Perkins is a playmaker. Clemson doesn't need "style points" here. They just need to win. Look for the dog to stay within the number. 8* Virginia

10* Georgia (4:00 ET): What separates this game from the two other Conference Championship Games involving unbeaten teams (Big 10, ACC) is that the underdog also happens to be playing for a chance to make the College Football playoff. #4 Georgia will be in the CFP w/ a win Saturday over LSU. While that's "easier said than done," I don't think the gap between these two SEC schools is as large as the oddsmakers seem to believe. I've got the line closer to a field goal than a touchdown and that's some pretty substantial value on a side that has everything to gain. Take the points.

Georgia's only loss this year was in double overtime to South Carolina. You may recall that I was on the right side of that one. However, let it be noted that the Bulldogs were -4 in turnovers in that game, negating a rather huge 468-297 edge in total yardage. So they easily could be undefeated coming into this game, just like LSU. Were that the case, this line would be a whole lot shorter. The Bulldogs' defense has a claim to be the best in the country as it gives up only 10.3 PPG (2nd best behind Clemson). It's a better defense than Alabama and the best LSU will have faced all year. Offensively, UGA is going to have to run the ball effectively here. They should considering LSU has allowed running backs to average more than 6.0 YPC the L5 games. 

There's no denying how good LSU is, but I just don't think they are a full TD better than Georgia on a neutral field. Obviously, it's pretty rare for Georgia to be an underdog. They are 3-0 ATS in that role under HC Kirby Smart. Remember that LSU's only two "comparable" opponents would be Bama and Auburn and the Tigers only won those games by a combined eight points. This is Georgia's third straight year playing for the SEC Title, which is a bit of an advantage as well. They also have big time revenge for an ugly 36-13 loss in Baton Rouge last year where they actually came in as a 7-point road favorite. Special teams edge goes to the underdog here as well. 10* Georgia

10* Florida Atlantic (1:30 ET): UAB should be commended for a remarkable "rebirth." Three years ago, there wasn't even a football program! But after two years of suspending operations, HC Bill Clark has helped lead one of the great stories in College Football. Over the last three seasons, the Blazers have won 8, 11 and 9 games. This is the second year in a row they are playing for the C-USA Championship. They won it last year, beating Middle Tennessee 27-25 as a 1-pt home dog. But this year they have to travel to face Florida Atlantic, who won this game two years ago. 

FAU had a down year in 2018, winning only five games. But Lane Kiffin has the Owls right back where they were in 2017. Well, maybe they aren't quite as good as that team, but they have blown through the conference schedule. They are 7-1 SU in C-USA play, outscoring teams by 17.3 points per game. Since losing to Marshall on 10.18, the Owls have won five straight - all by double digits. Twice in the regular season they were a big play for me, once against Charlotte and the other against Western Kentucky. Both times they were drastically undervalued, which is again the case here. 

While UAB should be lauded for what it has accomplished these last three seasons, the fact is they played arguably the weakest schedule in the entire country this year. They faced only four bowl teams (Western Kentucky, Tennessee, Southern Miss, La Tech) and the only one they beat (La Tech) was dealing w/ a bunch of suspensions. Plus that was the only one of the four games that was at home. In six road games during the regular season, the Blazers averaged only 18.2 PPG. Other than Marshall, FAU's only other losses were to Ohio St and UCF, the first two games of the season. The Owls are again the class of C-USA and will demonstrate that on Saturday. 10* Florida Atlantic

10* Oregon (8:00 ET): Since losing at USC on a Friday night (a result I was on the right side of!), Utah has won eight in a row - both SU and ATS - and only once during that win streak has the final margin been LESS than 25 points. But they've really not had to face many quality opponents either. Only three of the teams they played went on to become bowl eligible and none won more than seven regular season games. The one close game they did play over the L2 months was at Washington where they had to rally for a 33-28 win as three-point chalk. The Utes did not face North Division Champ Oregon in the regular season. 

Oregon actually wrapped up its division sooner than Utah, despite having the inferior overall record. Maybe that says something about the North, but it actually had more teams finish bowl eligible than the South did. The Ducks' two losses this year have been by a total of nine points and one of the games (season opener vs. Auburn) saw them in the lead for 59+ minutes. There is no shame in losing to Auburn nor Arizona State, who got Oregon two weeks ago in what was my Pac 12 Game of the Year. While Utah can lay claim to having beat ASU 21-3, the Ducks can claim to have beaten USC 56-24 and that was on the road. (Utah got ASU at home). 

Utah lost the Pac 12 Championship Game last year (10-3 to Washington), so that'll serve as extra motivation. Not to mention a win here would place them in the discussion for the College Football Playoff. But you can't discount an Oregon side that has been an underdog just one time this year (the Auburn game) and gives up only 15.8 PPG. The Utes were fortunate to extend their ATS win streak last week as they scored late to cover the 29-point spot against Colorado. Oregon will easily be Utah's toughest opponent to date while the Ducks have the confidence knowing they should have beaten a comparable Auburn team (that just beat Alabama). Take the points. 10* Oregon 

10* Minnesota (8:15 ET): Endless throughout the telecast of tonight's game, you are bound to hear that Kirk Cousins is 0-7 (straight up) all-time on Monday Night Football. Were Al Michaels calling the game, you might also hear he's 0-7 ATS. But what you may not be told is that Cousins hasn't ever quarterbacked for a team this good. The Vikings are 8-3 SU and own the league's fourth best overall point differential (+84). This line implies that these teams would be considered "even" on a neutral field. That's simply not the case as the Vikings have been more impressive in my eyes. Take the points. 

Seattle has been living dangerously. Granted, they are 9-2 SU and have a chance to move up to the #1 seed in the NFC w/ a win tonight. But the vast majority of their games this year have been close. They are 7-1 SU in one-score games this season, 8-1 if you count last week's 8-point win at Philadelphia. Only New Orleans has a higher win percentage in games decided by one score this season. The Seahawks have just one win this year by greater than eight points and it came at the expense of last place Arizona.

Those who have followed my picks for any length of time know that I lean heavily on scoring differential as a reliable indicator of future outcomes. I'm just not fully buying into this Seattle team yet. Their YTD point differential is only +29, which is outside the Top 10. Teams like Tennessee (7-5) and even Dallas (6-6) have outscored their opponents by more. The Seahawks are just 1-4 ATS in their home games. The Vikings are off a bye here. Cousins is the only QB in the league w/ a higher passer rating than Russell Wilson. The Vikings also have the better defense. 10* Minnesota