10* Ball State (2:00 ET): So my biggest selection of the entire bowl season will be on Ball State. While their opponents (San Jose State) are undefeated (7-0 SU), the Cardinals happen to bring a 6-game win streak of their own into the Arizona Bowl. The last of those six wins was a big one as BSU upset Buffalo in the MAC Championship Game, as a two-touchdown underdog, 38-28. That they held Buffalo’s explosive offense to just 7 points in the 2H was every bit as impressive as scoring 35 pts of their own in the 1H. I had the Cardinals in that MAC Championship Game, so I know what they’re all about. You’ll want to be on them plus the points here.

San Jose State also pulled an upset in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game, beating Boise State 34-20 as a 6.5-point dog. The Spartans are no worse than 6-0-1 ATS this season (7-0 for some) so they have clearly defied expectations in running the table thus far. You’ve got to give them credit, although the MWC was not particularly strong this season. Something else that jumps out is SJSU having been favored only three times previous to this. Those games were against New Mexico, UNLV and Hawaii, none of whom are in Ball State’s class. This is a lot of points to lay against a good team when you’re not accustomed to the favorite role.

Ball State’s only loss came against Miami OH (season opener), a game which they led by DD in the 2H. While four of their six wins have been by seven points or less, that doesn’t matter when you’re the underdog as the Cardinals are here. I said the same thing going into the MAC Championship. The upset of Buffalo marked the 7th consecutive time Ball State has covered as an underdog. The program has NEVER won a bowl game (0-7 SU all-time) so they will be very hungry on New Year’s Eve. They beat Buffalo w/o RB Huntley, so they can certainly do it again here. San Jose State had just one offensive TD in the first three quarters vs. Boise after trailing at the half vs. Nevada. We saw what Ball State did in the 1H of the MAC Champ Game. My power ratings say this should only be a 2-point spread. 10* Ball State

10* Texas (9:00 ET): Unless for some reason they are mentally checked out, I fully anticipate the Longhorns rolling in this year’s Alamo Bowl. UT has certainly gone through some “trials and tribulations” in 2020 (haven’t we all?!) with three losses and HC Tom Herman’s job security even being called into question. But the ‘Horns closed strong by winning four of five and ended up landing in the top 15 of my personal power ratings (higher than their #20 finish in CFP rankings). That this number came down a bit is great as Texas won all six of its games this year in which it was a 3.5 to 9.5-point favorite. 

Texas’ losses this year came either by three points or less (TCU, Iowa St) or after FOUR overtimes (Oklahoma). So they were really close to being undefeated despite three losses. The TCU loss was ridiculous as the offense was stopped on a goal line stand in the final minute after the defense gave up the go-ahead score in the final four minutes. The Iowa State game was another blown lead and they missed the potential tying FG as time expired. No one has really stayed close with Oklahoma since the Longhorns did. While there have been a few opt-outs for the bowl game, QB Ehlinger is still here and he had a 25-5 TD-INT ratio in the regular season. 

Colorado just doesn’t measure up here, in my opinion. The Buffaloes were a surprising 4-1 with that lone loss coming 17 days ago to Utah (38-31). They played no one the caliber of Texas. While CU can run the ball effectively w/ RB Broussard, the Longhorns’ defense ranks 30th in the country in stopping the run. The Buffs are also going to be w/o LB Nate Landman, who was the star of the defense. Of all the remaining bowl games, this is the one my power rating project to be the most lopsided (save for Notre Dame-Alabama, which has a MUCH higher spread). Lay the points. 10* Texas

10* New England (8:15 ET): There are two six-game streaks on the line coming into this game. Buffalo has covered six in a row. New England has gone Under in six in a row. I’ll be fading the former here as I just think that this is far too many points for the Bills to be laying. My own personal power ratings have this number much shorter. In fact, those ratings say this line should be under a field goal. So I’ll gladly take the points in this matchup as the Patriots are back in Foxboro for the 1st time in a month (they are 4-2 SU in home games this season). 

Assuming this line doesn’t close lower than -6.5, it will be the most points the Bills have laid to the Patriots since the glory days of Jim Kelly (1993). Quite frankly, being favored against New England is a position Buffalo is completely unaccustomed to being in. They were favored in the first meeting this season, but were just -4 at home. They won that game 24-21 when Cam Newton fumbled inside the red zone on the potential game tying/winning drive. That’s the last game the Bills failed to cover btw! It was the 1st time the Bills had been favored against the Pats since Week 1 of 2003! 

New England has not gotten at least seven points in an AFC East game since 2001 at Miami. It’s the first time they’ve been a home dog of 7 pts since that same 2001 season (vs. Peyton Manning and Indianapolis). That was Tom Brady’s rookie season. Getting a FG or more, New England is 22-11 ATS under Belichick and 10-3 ATS when getting at least seven. They are 14-3 ATS (12-5 SU) as a home dog under Belichick including 2-0 ATS this year. So it’s not all “ancient history.” Buffalo has been rolling, but a 7th straight cover when laying this many points on the division road seems unlikely. 10* New England

UPDATE: Liking this play even more now with the announcement BOTH Colts' starting tackles are out. 

8* Pittsburgh (1:00 ET): Things have really “gone South” in a hurry for the Steelers, who were once 11-0 SU. They’ve now suffered three consecutive SU losses and have failed to cover all four games in December. Their only win this month came against a Ravens team that was severely depleted because of COVID (game was played on a Wednesday night). Starting with that less than stellar effort, the Black & Gold have averaged just 17 PPG the L4 weeks. A new nadir came Monday night when they lost outright - as a two touchdown underdog - to 2-win Cincinnati. Apologies (from players and coaches) have been issued ever since. 

I know Indianapolis commands a lot of respect in the marketplace. Did you know that the Colts have been underdogs in only one game all season? That was when they closed +1 at Cleveland in Week 5! But this sure feels like a “buy low” spot on the Steelers. The lookahead line for this game was Pittsburgh -3, but after the loss on MNF, it almost instantly “jumped the fence” to where now the Steelers are underdogs for the 1st time all season at home. This line move reminds me a little bit of when the Colts ended up favored against Baltimore and lost 24-10. But that game was played in Indianapolis. 

The Steelers’ offense has been held under 20 points in four straight games, something that hasn’t happened since Ben Roethlisberger’s rookie season. With fingers being pointed, I expect Big Ben and the offense to “get it going” here against a Colts’ pass defense that has given up three straight 300+ yard passing days. Indy was outgained at home by Houston last week, 425-350. Pittsburgh allowed just 230 total yards vs. Cincinnati, but was an unlucky -3 in turnover differential. Getting points, at home, with a team that started the year 11-0 is a value I simply cannot pass up. 8* Pittsburgh

8* NY Jets (1:00 ET): The Jets finally won a game last week as they stunned the Rams 23-20 as a two-touchdown underdog on the road. While it saved them from the potential embarrassment of going 0-16, the win ultimately may prove costly as the Jets are no longer in position to pick 1st in next spring’s Draft (Jacksonville is). Of course, HC Adam Gase probably doesn’t want to get fired (I would have never hired him), so the win may have bought him some time. I think the conventional wisdom here will be that the Jets “can’t possibly win two in a row.” While that may be true, I do see a ton of value with line. 

The Browns went 0-16 a few years ago, but that’s now a distant memory with Baker Mayfield leading a renaissance in Cleveland. The Browns are now 10-4 SU and barring a complete collapse will be in the playoffs for the first time since 2002. But this is a somewhat unprecedented spread for Cleveland. The last time they were favored by at least 9 points on the road was 1976 when they laid two touchdowns to the expansion Buccaneers. That was a long time ago! Mayfield is just 2-6 ATS in his career as a road favorite and the Browns are 3-10 ATS overall their L13 road games. You may recall that I successfully faded them a few weeks ago in Jacksonville when they were -6.5. They ended up winning that game by only two points. 

Since Week 5, the Browns have just one win by more than five points. It came last week in this stadium, against the Giants, 20-6. However, you should note the Giants failed to score on TWO drives that ended inside the 10-yard line. With half the Browns games this season being decided by one score, you really can’t justify laying this many points with them on the road. I know it’s the Jets and motivation could be an issue now that they’ve actually won, but my power ratings say this number should be under a touchdown. The Browns are only 3-6 ATS their L9 games and have failed to cover four of the six games where they’ve been favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Take the points. 8* NY Jets

10* San Francisco (4:30 ET): After “striking gold” as NFC Champs a season ago, the 49ers’ fortunes quickly soured in 2020. Injuries piled up early on, leaving them depleted on both sides of the ball. The end result is a 5-9 SU record and they are down to third string QB CJ Beathard as they get ready to face the Cardinals this week (Saturday). Arizona is a place the Niners should be quite familiar with at this point; it’s where they’ve been playing their “home games” due to local COVID-19 restrictions. While they’ve yet to win here (0-2), playing in the same stadium for the third time in four weeks is a bit of a “hidden advantage.” So I’m actually taking the points here.

Both the 49ers and Cardinals scored 33 points last week and put up a ton of yards. The 49ers gained 458 against the Cowboys while the Cards finished with 526 against the Eagles. Interestingly, both also lost the turnover battle pretty badly (49ers -4, Cardinals -3). But while San Fran lost by 8, Arizona still managed to win by 7. That’s pretty much the way it’s gone for these two teams in 2020 as the Cardinals are now ascending in the NFC West. They need this game to move closer to their first playoff berth in five years. Meanwhile, there’s a very good chance the 49ers could be the only team in the division NOT to make the playoffs this year. 

While it’s “must win”, I feel Arizona is a little overvalued here. While they’ve had success against the 49ers in the past, including a 24-20 win back in Week 1, they’ve also been the underdog in each of the L5 meetings. When favored this year, the Cardinals are just 3-7 ATS with five outright losses.The 49ers really should have beaten Dallas last week (were +167 in total yards) but two early TO’s dug them into a 14-0 hole and they also allowed a kick return for TD. In relief, Beathard actually played pretty well, leading two scoring drives. Having outgained opponents on a per game and per play basis this season, the Niners are better than their record. They were actually favored each of the L3 wks, not to mention were -7 vs. Arizona in Wk 1. Good value here. 10* San Francisco.

10* Minnesota (4:30 ET): Though last week’s 33-27 upset loss to the Bears (at home) effectively ended any chance they have to make the playoffs, I think there’s actually quite a bit to like about this Minnesota team moving forward (expect a bounce back in 2021). Yes, I know they are 0-5 ATS their L5 games. But four of those games have been decided by 6 pts or less. The only one that wasn’t, a 26-14 loss to Tampa Bay two weeks ago, saw them take an early lead. With New Orleans suddenly struggling (also off B2B losses), this feels like it will be closer than experts think. Half of the Saints’ victories this season have come by 6 pts or less. 

The Saints defense, which had a historically great 5-game stretch, has suddenly “sprung a leak.” Yes, they had to face Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City last week. But what about the week before when they got to go against a rookie QB making his 1st career start? Jalen Hurts and the Eagles not only scored 24 points in a shocking upset, but they also ran for 246 yards. In case you needed to be reminded, the Vikings have Dalvin Cook, the league’s leading rusher. The Saints’ D also allowed 179 yards rushing vs. the Chiefs. Overall, this Vikings offense averages a really solid 6.3 yards per play. They’ve scored 27+ pts five of the last seven weeks. They should put plenty of points on the board again here. 

Historically, Minnesota does well in this spot. The spot being “off B2B losses.” They are 3-0 ATS in that role this season and 6-0 ATS the L3 seasons! They’ve won five of those six games outright. Let us not forget that Minnesota came here to the Superdome in January and won outright, 26-20 with an almost identical pointspread. Drew Brees didn’t look like himself last week (returned too early?) and New Orleans is a lousy 1-5 ATS the last six times they’ve been a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 pts. Take the points. 10* Minnesota

10* Marshall (2:30 ET): To quote the Hives “Hate to Say I Told You So,” (Buffalo fans). Last Friday I faded the heavily favored Bulls in the MAC Championship Game (-14 vs. Ball State), noting just how soft a schedule it had been for a team that came in at 5-0 SU. When 40% of your schedule was against two of the worst three teams in the country (Akron, Bowling Green), I think an unbeaten record should be taken with a “grain of salt.” Sure enough, as I predicted Buffalo was not infallible. They lost outright to Ball State, 38-28, a result even better than I could have imagined. Motivation may now be an issue for the Bulls playing just one week later. 

I said the same thing about Marshall when I successfully faded them last Friday. The Thundering Herd just had their own unbeaten run (7-0) ended two weeks earlier with a shocking loss to Rice. I said that would greatly affect their motivation in the C-USA Champ Game (vs. UAB) where they were favored. They suffered the same fate as Buffalo did, losing outright. In their case, it had to do with an offense that could not get on track for a second straight game. After five turnovers led to a shutout loss to Rice (stunning!), the Herd could only manage 268 total yards against UAB. 

So after successful fades of both teams exactly one week ago, who do I go with in the Camellia Bowl? Well, this game likely comes down to Marshall’s excellent rush defense stopping Buffalo RB Jaret Patterson. Fortunately for them, Patterson suffered a knee injury LW vs. Ball State. The Bulls offense really slowed down after that injury. While “likely” to play here, he won’t be 100% effective, especially against a defense giving up only 2.7 yards per carry. A Buffalo defense that’s given up 30+ in half of its games should be the “elixir” for the Marshall offense. The Thundering Herd have had FAR more success in bowl games than Buffalo, so take the points here. 10* Marshall

8* Georgia Southern (3:00 ET): Louisiana Tech actually brings a 6-year bowl win streak into this year’s New Orleans Bowl, all those wins coming under current HC Skip Holtz. However, there is little disputing that this is one of the weaker iterations during Holtz’s tenure. As far as this year’s crop of bowl teams go, the Bulldogs are among the very worst. Of their five wins this season, three were against terrible teams and another was a FCS school. The fifth was a 2OT game where they trailed by 14 going into the 4Q. Earlier in the year, they erased a 17-point 2H deficit and won. The bottom line is that this team, which was outscored this season, ought to feel very fortunate to have a 5-4 SU record.

Georgia Southern was probably the best team in the Sun Belt this season after you get beyond the “big three” of Coastal Carolina, Louisiana and Appalachian State. To be clear, this year was the strongest the Sun Belt has been, perhaps ever. The Eagles played all three of those teams tough and its other two losses were by a combined 7 points, both on the road (including 28-27 at Army). It’s really just the opposite of La Tech, who probably should have had a worse regular season record. Ga Southern is definitely “better than 7-5 SU” in my eyes.

This is Georgia Southern’s third straight bowl appearance, so they’re no stranger to the postseason under HC Chad Lunsford. Look for the Eagles’ offense to have plenty of success running the ball in this game as La Tech’s defense has given 330+ yards rushing in two of its last three games. Ga Southern comes in averaging 262 rush yards per game on the season. Louisiana Tech’s offense is just horrible as it averages only 2.8 YPC and 325 total YPG. The Eagles have the edge defensively in this one as well as they allow only 22.3 PPG. La Tech allows 34.3. This one should quickly turn into a blowout. 8* Georgia Southern

10* Tulane (3:30 ET): Of the 28 bowl games scheduled for 2020-21, this is the one where the line jumped out to me the most. I feel this number is WAY off as a Tulane team that my power ratings respect quite a bit should comfortably win this game by double digits. Both teams are in a bowl for the third consecutive year with Green Wave having won its prior two while Nevada lost LY’s Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, 30-21 to Ohio U. My power ratings haven’t liked the Wolf Pack all season and the way they finished the regular season really seemed to confirm that skepticism. Lay the points!

Nevada started 5-0 (SU), but three of those five wins came by seven points or less. Also, they got to face three of the worst teams in the country - UNLV, Utah State and New Mexico - all in a row. It was when the Wolf Pack traveled to face Hawai (11/28) that I finally jumped in to fade. Sure enough, that ended up being an outright loss for Nevada (24-21 as 7.5-pt chalk) and a win for me. The following week, the Wolf Pack were very fortunate to beat Fresno State 37-26 as they gave up 600 total yards in the contest. They gave up 500 more to San Jose State the next week while the offense was shut out in the 2H. So it’s been almost a month since they played a “good game.” 

 You may recall that I played against Nevada in LY’s Famous Idaho Potato Bowl and it was one of my stronger selections of the entire bowl season. The Wolf Pack have now lost 12 consecutive games at Albertsons Stadium (0-9 vs. Boise St, 0-3 in bowls), so do not be worried about any “geographical disadvantage” here for Tulane. The Green Wave, who are looking for a third straight 7-win season under Willie Fritz, are 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS as favorites this season and 17-4/14-7 in that role L3 seasons. They easily could have had a better regular season record, but lost three games in which they held a DD lead plus lost in OT to SMU. A 35-21 win over Memphis was a strong way to close the regular season. There’s tremendous depth at running back here and the defense led the AAC in sacks. 10* Tulane

10* NY Giants (8:20 ET): Despite losing Monday night, the Browns remain tremendously overvalued in the marketplace. Yes, there is some uncertainty with the Giants’ QB situation as they may have to turn to Colt McCoy (a former Brown!) for this Sunday night game. But remember it was McCoy who helped engineer the shocking upset in Seattle two weeks ago. Calling the plays for the G-Men will be former Browns’ HC Freddie Kitchens. So there’s going to be PLENTY of motivation on that home sideline this week, in addition to the fact the Giants are trying to win the NFC East (currently tied for 1st w/ Washington at 5-7 SU).

Cleveland is 9-4 SU, but six of its wins have been by seven points or less and the schedule has been relatively easy. Ironically, in defeat, they probably played one of their better games on MNF. I think the consensus coming off that wild 47-42 loss to the Ravens is that the Browns are “for real.” But beware of the fact they still have a negative point differential on the season and the defense has given up a total of 82 points the L2 weeks. As a favorite this season, the Browns are 7-1 SU, but just 3-5 ATS. As favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, they are 5-0 SU, but 1-4 ATS. I just don’t this team should be this large of a road favorite.

In fact, my own power ratings call this game a pick ‘em! The Giants are 8-3 ATS (though only 3-8 SU) as underdogs this season. They were on a 4-game win streak before getting blown out by Arizona (26-7) last week. That singular result seems to have greatly affected this spread and I’m not sure why. The Browns have not won a game by more than six points since October 11th. During that 4-game win streak, the G-Men were giving up an average of just 16.5 PPG. The 26 pts they allowed last week were the most in any game since Week 5. They’ve allowed more than 26 only twice all season. Take the points. 10* NY Giants

8* New Orleans (4:25 ET): The Chiefs are living dangerously. They’ve won five consecutive one score games, but have not covered the spread in any of them. This reminds me of last year’s Super Bowl run where they fell behind by double digits in every playoff game, only to come out ahead every time. Of course, the difference is that they covered the spread in all those games. Normally, I might see a 5-game ATS losing streak as a time to “buy low,” but being a road favorite against the Saints seems to be the antithesis of “buying low.” Rather it’s the other side I want to invest in as this seems to be a steal.

For the record, New Orleans was going to be an underdog in this game even before they were upset last week in Philadelphia. That shocking defeat to an Eagles team starting a rookie QB (1st career start) hasn’t seemed to affect this line much. Surprisingly, as of press time at least, nor has the impending return of Drew Brees. I just think this is an incredible value on a Saints team - with or without Brees in the lineup. They’d won nine in a row prior to last week and were widely considered to be the best team in the NFC. The Saints are 8-1 SU and ATS as underdogs since 2018 including a 38-3 win at Tampa Bay last month. That was the only time New Orleans has been a dog in 2020. 

Even with Taysom Hill as the starter, I would have loved this line. But now it’s the HOF Brees under center. We’re also getting arguably the league’s best defense. If there’s one defense I’d trust to slow down Patrick Mahomes, it would be this one as the Saints are allowing just 20.4 PPG this year. Going into last week’s game vs. Philly (where I cashed the Over), the Saints had allowed just two offensive touchdowns in their past five games. It’s almost unheard of to be getting a Brees-led Saints team as a home underdog. Take the points. 8* New Orleans

8* Atlanta (1:00 ET): Atlanta has been a home dog only two other times this season. I took them the first time around and that ended up being a 43-6 thrashing of Las Vegas, their best performance of the 2020 season. The Dirty Birds weren’t as fortunate the following week (+3 in a 21-16 loss), but that was against the Saints. Tampa Bay is closer to New Orleans than they are to Las Vegas in terms of talent, but still I don’t see how Tom Brady and the Bucs deserve to be favored by more in Atlanta than New Orleans was. The current line is much higher than the look ahead line was and I’m seeing value on the Falcons here. 

The Bucs got a late season bye and really needed it as they were off B2B losses heading into LW’s game vs. Minnesota. The week off seemed to do them some good as they beat the Vikings 26-14 as six-point favorites. However, they were actually outgained in the contest (335-303) and had 10 fewer first downs than Minnesota. A potential major problem for TB this week is that all three specialists (kicker, punter, long-snapper) are on the COVID-19 list. Special teams miscues often end up costing a team wins (just ask the Chargers!) and don’t be surprised if the Bucs make one on Sunday. Also, the Bucs’ starting left tackle (Donovan Smith) won’t play here and RB Ronald Jones is questionable.

A few things to keep in mind with the Falcons here. One is that despite a 4-9 SU record, they have actually outscored their opponents this season! Matt Ryan is 15-7 ATS all-time as a home dog. Interim HC Raheem Morris probably wants to keep this job on a permanent basis, so I don’t see this team quitting. They could have beaten the Chargers last week if not for TWO late Ryan interceptions. Atlanta is 4-4 SU under Morris. Take the points. 8* Atlanta

9* Miami (1:00 ET): Is there something I’m missing here? Because I feel the Dolphins are being severely undervalued in this spot, a key AFC East clash. Not that I mind. I’ve cashed Miami multiple times in 2020, the most notable win was obviously my 10* Game of the Year when they upset the Rams 28-17 here at home. Since their bye week last season, Brian Flores’ team has gone a league-best 19-6 ATS. The ‘Fins are 10-3 ATS this season, have covered eight of their last nine and were a winner for me last week +7.5 against the best team in the league, Kansas City. I feel they should be about a touchdown favorite here. 

This clearly isn’t the same New England team we’ve grown accustomed to seeing under Bill Belichick. The Patriots are just 6-7 SU and while technically not out of the playoff race, their reign of dominance over the AFC East (won division 17 of the last 19 years, including 11 straight) figures to end, possibly as early as Sunday. Even if the Pats were to win their final three games, it’s highly doubtful they’ll make the playoffs. It’s been awhile, so let me remind you that the last time we saw this team, they were thoroughly dominated in a 24-3 loss to the Rams. 

So much has changed since these teams met in Week 1. New England won that first game 21-11, but Tua Tagovailoa is now the Miami QB and he’s led his team to a 4-2 WL record. The Dolphins are 4-1 SU/ATS as favorites this season and now they get to play host. The Patriots are just 2-5 SU/ATS on the road and one of those SU wins was by three against the Jets. I know all about Belchick’s record vs. rookie QBs (11-0 since 2012), but this isn’t the same NE team. The Dolphins are 6-1 ATS vs. teams with losing records and the Patriots are 0-3 ATS when playing with more than six days off between games. So much for rest. Miami is better and deserves to be favored. 9* Miami

8* Washington (1:00 ET): So Washington is forced to start Dwayne Haskins this week as Alex Smith is injured. That’s a bit of a bummer for a team that has really come into its own of late with four consecutive wins and covers. I believe this is the team that will win the moribund NFC East. Were Smith starting here, I would make Washington the favorite here. They beat Pittsburgh (who was unbeaten at the time) on the road two weeks ago and it’s not like Seattle is immune from a shocking loss. Two weeks ago, they fell at home to the Giants, 17-12 as 12.5-point chalk. 

The Seahawks rebounded from that upset loss by smashing the Jets 40-3 last week. But that doesn’t really affect our view of Russell Wilson and company. Everybody beats the Jets. As good as Wilson and the Seahawks’ defense has looked this season, they’re up against a defense that’s allowed a total of just 57 points the last four games. That’s just over 14.0 per game as rookie Chase Young has looked phenomenal of late for the Football team. Seattle’s RT Brandon Snell has been in and out of the lineup recently, so protecting Wilson could be an issue here. 

Washington’s offense actually gained less than 200 total yards last week, but they still won 23-15 against San Francisco. While not a “true” road win (was played in Arizona), they’ll take it. Seattle is just 3-3 SU on the road this season and almost all of their games (save for LW) end up being close. Going back to the start of last season, 17 of the Seahawks’ 21 victories have been by one possession! They’ve been outgained this year. The Football Team’s defense will carry Haskins and keep this one closer than expected. The Seahawks have failed to cover four straight road games and are 0-3 ATS L3 as a road favorite. 8* Washington

8* Florida (8:00 ET): Fading Florida proved quite fruitful for me last week as the Gators went out and lost outright (as 23.5-point favorites) to LSU. Blame the ill-timed throwing of the shoe all you want, but it was not a great all-around effort by Dan Mullen’s team and the loss definitely took some of the “shine” off the SEC Championship Game vs. Alabama. But that’s precisely how I like it! Now, no one is giving Florida a chance, despite the fact they are the #7 ranked team in the country and their two losses this year have been by a combined six points. While I don’t anticipate another outright win here, I am definitely taking the points. 

Now we ought to give Alabama their due. The top-ranked Crimson Tide mowed their way through the regular season, winning all 10 games by an average of almost 33 PPG. Lost in the middle of the pandemic is the fact this team is probably one of Nick Saban’s most dominant EVER at Tuscaloosa. But this is a LOT of points to be laying when you’re facing a good team and everybody expects you to win. Florida has been an underdog only one other time this season and it was when they annihilated Georgia (on a neutral field) 44-28. The Gators have put up at least 31 points in every game this season. 

Furthermore, Florida is 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS off an SEC loss under Mullen. I mentioned a similar trend for LSU under Ed Orgeron last week. Look, there’s probably nothing I can say to convince you that the Gators have a chance of winning this game. But they certainly can keep it close. Other than Texas A&M, who they faced early in the season and at home, Bama played a fairly weak SEC schedule. After so many covers in a row (7-0 ATS L7), isn’t at least one close game in store? Both of Bama’s non-covers came away from home this year. They haven’t faced Florida since the 2016 SEC Title Game and Heisman frontrunner Kyle Trask is good enough to keep this one within striking distance. 8* Florida

10* Denver (4:30 ET): I have to concede that the Broncos are NOT one of my favorite teams this season. They are the only team in the league that hasn’t been favored in a single game all year and they’ve got the 5th worst point differential. Only the Bengals, Cowboys, Jaguars and Jets - who are a collective 7-44-1 SU - have been outscored by a larger margin this season. That being said, this would seem like a prime opportunity to “sell high” on the Bills as they are coming off a win over the Steelers and 5-0 ATS their L5 games. Despite that ATS win streak, my power rankings indicate this line should be +3.5. 

I was NOT as high on Buffalo as most were coming into this season. I’ll admit that I was wrong in that regard as this very much looks like a legit contender in the AFC right now. But in terms of point differential, the Bills remain outside the top ten (in the league) and have benefited by going 5-1 SU in one-score games. They still don’t really have the statistical profile you’d expect from a 10-3 team. What they have done is handle their business at home (5-0 SU when favored). But on the road, they are just 1-3 ATS when favored.

The Broncos are 0-6 ATS against the Bills since 2007, but this is the first time they’ll face them with Drew Lock as the starting QB. Lock is 10-5 ATS in his NFL career, leading Denver to cash in each of his L3 starts. After leading a near upset of Kansas City two weeks ago, Lock had his best game as a pro vs. Carolina last week as he had a 4-0 TD-INT ratio in the 32-27 victory. This team is simply much better with Lock under center. I know the Denver defense has some serious issues at CB right now, but they remain #1 in the league in red zone efficiency and should stymie Buffalo enough to keep this one within the number. 10* Denver

10* Mississippi State (3:30 ET): It was back on October 10th that I wrote the following: “The fact that Mississippi State was able to upset LSU (down in Baton Rouge) in the season opener is going to carry a lot of weight in the marketplace moving forward.” It was time to fade the Bulldogs that day and sure enough they lost 24-2 to Kentucky. It’s been all downhill since in Starkville with the only victory coming against perennial SEC pasty Vanderbilt (who has fired its HC). Mike Leach’s first season is guaranteed to be a losing one (2-7 SU/3-6 ATS entering Saturday), but I would caution about writing them off Saturday at home vs. Missouri. 

Missouri was actually ranked in the Top 25 of the CFP Rankings last week, which I found to be quite curious. The Tigers barely crack my own Top 50 and sure enough they went out and got whipped 49-14 by Georgia last week. Now that’s a good team Mizzou was up against, but that’s precisely the point. The Tigers’ “best” win this season was probably LSU, same as Mississippi State. They have more wins than the Bulldogs, but (like Miss St) the only dominant one was against Vandy. Three have been by seven points or less. 

Mississippi State has had all sorts of problems on offense this year, but facing a Mizzou defense that has given up 35 or more points six times this season might be “what the doctor ordered.” The last two weeks have seen the Tigers give up a total of 97 points! Up front, the Mizzou defense has been decimated by injuries.While they did win the only other time they were road favorites, that was against a South Carolina team (17-10) playing for a lame duck head coach. This is the first time in four games that the Tigers are playing away from home. They’ve yet to score more than 17 in any of their three previous road games. 10* Mississippi State

8* Washington State (1:30 ET): In any other College Football season, a matchup like this would likely go a long way in determining bowl assignments. But as you know, 2020 has been no normal year. There seems to be no shortage of “breaking news” these days in this sport, and on Friday, Utah announced that they would not be accepting any bowl bids. Washington State has already indicated the same thing. Thus, this will likely be the last time we see either of these teams this year. Utah laying double digits in a game where they may not be all that motivated seems highly questionable. I’ll take the points. 

Utah started out 0-2, but actually played pretty well in losing efforts vs. USC and Washington. They blew a 21-point lead against the latter. Turning the ball over a total of nine times in those two games also played a large role in losing. So I’m not surprised to see that the Utes have turned things around some with B2B wins, against Oregon State and Colorado. But they did get to face OSU w/o its star RB and starting QB. That seems like a pretty big advantage, yet the Utes won by only six in a game they returned a punt for a touchdown. Last week at Colorado, they trailed by 11 in the first half before turning it on after halftime for a 38-21 win and cover. 

Washington State has only gotten to take the field a total of three times this season. Last week’s game vs. Stanford was called off 90 minutes before kickoff. So the Cougars’ only game in the last month was an ugly 38-13 loss at USC, which was actually played on a Sunday. QB Jayden de Laura, who looked very sharp in the team’s first two games, did not play well against USC. I expect him to bounce back here. He’s completed 60% of his passes and the Wazzu rushing attack could be a lot better if Max Borghi is able to finally suit up. His replacement (Deon McIntosh) hasn’t been too shabby either, averaging 6.5 YPC vs. USC. 8* Washington State

8* Tennessee (12:00 ET): Texas A&M certainly has a lot at stake here. Currently #5 in the CFP rankings, the Aggies are first in line to move up if any of the top four stumble. If #2 Notre Dame were to defeat #3 Clemson later on Saturday, then the Tigers would almost certainly fall from the top four (would be their 2nd loss to ND). So the world is going to be on A&M here in Knoxville with the belief that “style points” matter. They really don’t though and a “dirty little secret” is that the Aggies have just ONE win by more than 13 points all season and that was against a South Carolina team that was eight days away from firing its HC. 

Two weeks ago, Tennessee gave me a nice win here at home vs. Florida, sliding right in through the backdoor. Though they were pretty thoroughly outplayed that day, the Volunteers hung in there with one of the better teams in the country. That coupled with last week’s 42-17 beatdown of Vanderbilt (snapped a six-game losing streak) MAY be enough to save HC Jeremy Pruitt’s job, but that’s far from certain. Pruitt definitely cannot afford a blowout loss here in the home finale. The “good news” is that the Vols’ last three losses have all come by 13 points or fewer. 

I know that A&M is perfect as a road favorite (5-0 ATS) under HC Jimbo Fisher and they’ve got something to play for here. But the number is definitely inflated and I’m taking the points. The Aggies have failed to cover all three times they’ve been double digit chalk this season and are a horrific 1-15 ATS off a bye (last week’s game vs. Ole Miss was cancelled). The Aggies’ offense has failed to impress me at times this season and the Tennessee defense has played a lot better of late, especially against the run as they’re giving up only 1.5 YPC the L2 weeks. 8* Tennessee

8* Ball State (7:30 ET): Buffalo put the finishing touches on a perfect 5-0 regular season last Saturday with a 56-7 thrashing of Akron. The Bulls had already been declared MAC East Champs prior to that game, so it’s pretty impressive that they were able to go out and still dominate by such an overwhelming margin. Of course, it helps when you’re facing Akron. That’s kind of my view on Buffalo as a whole in 2020. Their resume looks really impressive, but when you consider they’ve faced Northern Illinois, Miami OH, Bowling Green, Kent St and Akron, 5-0 comes across more as “yeah, that BETTER be their WL record.” 

Ball State has played one more game than Buffalo, but also brings a 5-game win streak into Friday’s MAC Championship Game. The Cardinals lost the season opener to Miami OH (blew a DD lead in the 2H), but has been perfect ever since. While four of those wins were by seven points or less, that doesn’t matter when you’re the underdog like they are here. Ball State’s regular season schedule was much tougher than Buffalo’s as the last three weeks have seen the Cardinals defeat Toledo, Central Michigan and Western Michigan, two of those games coming on the road. 

The MAC Title Game, as per usual, is being played at Ford Field in Detroit. The conventional wisdom here seems to be that Buffalo is - by far - the best team in the MAC. But when 40% of your schedule was against two of the worst three teams in the country (Akron, Bowling Green), I’m not willing to co-sign that. Though Ball State will play without RB Caleb Huntley (opted out), they are more than capable of making a game of this. They have covered six straight as an underdog and I believe Buffalo is overvalued due to getting some national coverage for a 70-point game against Kent State a few weeks ago. Ball State is better than any team Buffalo has faced this season. 8* Ball State

10* UAB (7:00 ET): Though this is the Conference USA Championship Game, it’s hardly a great “spot” for favored Marshall. Two week ago, the “bubble burst” in the Thundering Herd’s unbeaten season and it happened in one of the unlikeliest of ways, a 20-0 home loss to Rice. Ending up as the top “Group of 5” team is no longer in play, so motivation may be an issue here even though it's a Conference Championship Game. UAB is in its third straight C-USA Title Game (won ‘18, lost ‘19) and is arguably the better team here. Take the points. 

 You’ve got two strong defenses here and on what’s going to be a chilly night in Huntington, points are likely to be at a premium. That makes the underdog all the more attractive in this scenario. Remember that Rice was without its starting QB when it upset Marshall. Of course, offense was the bigger issue for the Thundering Herd that day as they were shutout on the scoreboard and turned the ball over five times. It’s notable that a week later UAB beat Rice 21-16.

UAB comes in at 5-3 SU and 2-6 ATS. While they’ve been poor at the betting window, there are a couple things to keep in mind. One is that they played a number of games with a backup QB. Starter Tyler Johnston III is now back. Also, two of the Blazers’ three losses this season were by four points or less. The other was at Miami FL in a Thursday night game early in the season. Since then, the defense has allowed more than 24 points in just one game and that came in an OT loss where they blew a 2 TD lead in the 4Q. Not sure home field advantage means much in 2020 and then you’ve got the fact Marshall is just 6-13 ATS its L19 home games. 10* UAB

10* LA Chargers (8:25 ET): From the oddsmakers perspective, the Chargers “should” have a better won-loss record than the Raiders this year. LA has been favored in six games while Las Vegas has been the chalk in only four. The Chargers’ main problem, which is nothing new, has been a failure to win close games. They are just 3-7 SU in games decided by 7 points or less, though they did prevail in one last week 20-17 against Atlanta. While the Bolts have yet to win as an underdog this year and last won a division game in 2018, the close win last week gives me belief they can pull through here. Take the points. 

The Raiders’ recent form has been lousy with their only win in the L4 games coming by three points against the 0-13 Jets. If you recall, I faded them in that spot. They would have lost the game outright had it not been for the ineptitude of (now fired) Jets’ DC Gregg Williams. Speaking of bad defense, the Raiders have given up an average of 37.5 PPG these L4 weeks! Sunday marked the third time this season they allowed more than 40 points and the Colts also rolled up 200+ yards rushing AND passing. The Chargers have one of the league’s better offenses as they are top 10 in total yards and #4 in passing. Unlike the Raiders, the Chargers have outgained their opponents this season. 

The first time these AFC West rivals met very much embodied the kind of season it’s been for LA. They outgained the Raiders 440-320, yet lost on the scoreboard 31-26 when the potential GW TD was overturned. QB Justin Herbert threw for over 300 yards and should do so again here. The Chargers’ YTD point differential is quite comparable to the Raiders despite the disparate records. You have to figure that “elusive” division victory is coming soon for the Chargers and I say “why not here?” as this line should be read as a huge warning signal about the Raiders, who have failed to cover the L2 times they’ve been favored. 10* LA Chargers

10* Cleveland (8:15 ET): While I remain HIGHLY skeptical of the Browns’ long-term fortune, due to a -15 point differential and 6-0 SU record in games decided by 7 pts or less (lucky!), I’ve got them here as a home dog vs. the Ravens on MNF. Certainly many are going to point to the way Baltimore dismantled the Browns back in Week 1. However, that 38-6 win and cover (as 7-pt favorites) seems like “forever ago” and the Ravens simply have not been as dominant in 2020 as they were a season ago. You’ll want to take the points here.

Baltimore had lost three in a row (all by 6 points or less) before beating a Dallas team that put up little effort on Tuesday. I don’t think we should put much stock in a win over the Cowboys at this point. The Browns aren’t the Cowboys, that’s for sure. Last week saw Baker Mayfield play perhaps the best half of his NFL career, leading his team to a ridiculous 38-7 halftime advantage. The final score of 41-35 is misleading to say the least as the Titans scored two touchdowns in the final two minutes.

Mayfield had a career-high 4 TDs in the 1H last week. He hasn’t thrown an interception since Odell Beckham Jr was lost to a season-ending injury. That was six games ago and Mayfield had an 11-0 TD-INT ratio since the Beckham injury. The Browns have not trailed in three of their last four games and the one they did (Jacksonville) saw them down for only a brief time. This will be Baltimore’s third game in 12 days and second in a row on a short week. We saw how Pittsburgh looked last night in the same scenario. 10* Cleveland

9* Pittsburgh (1:00 ET): I view this as a tremendous “buy low” spot on the Steelers. That may sound strange considering this team has lost just one time all season. But that loss occurred last Monday, the same day Buffalo ended its long MNF losing streak with a 34-24 victory against San Francisco. The Steelers have certainly underwhelmed of late, not just with loss to Washington last Monday, but also with a less than stellar showing against what amounted to the Ravens’ backups two weeks ago. But they are 11-1, have one of the best defenses in football and should NOT be an underdog here.

My power ratings were more in step with the lookahead line for this game, which had the Steelers as slight favorites. Shortly after the MNF results came in, the line quickly “jumped the fence” with the Bills now favored. I don’t buy it. Despite being 9-3, Buffalo doesn’t even have a top 10 point differential. Five of their wins have been in one-score games and remember that the 49ers team they just defeated was playing a lot of backups and the game WASN’T in San Francisco. The Bills are 1-7 ATS playing on a short week since 2016. 

Lots of other trends favor the road team here. Mike Tomlin is 17-5 ATS as a road dog against a team with a winning record. He is on a 10-2 ATS run as an underdog of any kind with eight outright wins. Pittsburgh is 8-4 ATS this season, the second best such record in the league. While Buffalo has covered four straight themselves, their pass-happy offense doesn’t figure to fare so well against what is probably the best pass defense in the entire league. The L3 weeks have seen the Steelers allow an average of just 247.7 YPG. 9* Pittsburgh

8* Cincinnati (1:00 ET): So the thought process here is pretty simple. Unless they’re playing the Jets, Dallas should not be a favorite against anybody, let alone on the road. America’s Team has really underperformed in Mike McCarthy’s first season, going a league-worst 2-10 ATS. Obviously, Cowboys’ fans can point a finger to the Dak Prescott injury, but the team was already struggling before the QB was lost for the season. McCarthy was a terrible hire and the Cowboys’ three wins this year have come by a combined seven points, none by more than a field goal. So yeah, take the points here.

The Bengals also lost their starting QB to a season-ending injury and it may be a long-time before we see Joe Burrow again. That’s too bad because Cincinnati was pretty competitive with Burrow under center. While the immediate future may not be looking too rosy in Cincy, the team has remained competitive even without its rookie QB. Two weeks ago, I took them and they covered in a 2-point loss to the Giants. Last week saw them hang in against the 8-4 Dolphins, even taking a 7-6 lead into halftime. The team is 6-2 ATS this season when coming off a SU loss and now they are back home where they’ve covered four in a row. 

The big story of this game will be Andy Dalton returning to Cincinnati. But for me, it’s the opportunity to play against Dallas as a favorite. The ‘Boys have been favored five times this season and are 0-5 ATS in those games, losing three of those games outright. This is the just the 2nd time they’ve been favored since the Prescott injury (lost 41-16 to Washington on Thanksgiving). The run defense (167.8 YPG allowed) is the worst the league has seen in a decade and just gave up almost 300 yards to Baltimore last week. That game was on Tuesday and the Cowboys are 3-15 ATS since 2012 when playing w/ six or fewer days' rest. The Bengals defense has held 4 of the last 5 opponents to 20 points or less and the team has three losses by a FG or less. 8* Cincinnati

8* Chicago (1:00 ET): That 5-1 start is a distant memory for the Bears, who have now lost six straight. The future of HC Matt Nagy in the Windy City is very much in doubt, even though he took this team to a division championship just two years ago. But at least he has Mitchell Trubisky! Wait, what? While Bears fans are probably still salty the team chose Trubisky instead of the opposing QB this week (DeShaun Watson), they can rest easy knowing the team has averaged a solid 25.8 PPG in Trubisky starts this season. As much as the Bears have struggled on the offensive side of the ball, they’re better with Trubisky under center and facing a terrible defense this week. 

Houston’s season has gone very differently than Chicago, though both now sport similar records. The Texans opened 0-4 with three of those losses coming to Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Kansas City. They’re 4-4 SU since the 0-4 start, but two of the wins were against Jacksonville. As I already mentioned, the Texans defense - even with JJ Watt - is abysmal. They are 30th in both yards allowed and efficiency. Losing a heartbreaker at home to Indianapolis last week (fumbled inside the Colts’ 5-yard line on the potential go-ahead drive) does this team no favors. 

I have these rated pretty evenly, so even with the Bears’ struggles over the last two months, I don’t think they should be an underdog at home this week. Houston isn’t just 4-8 SU, they are also 4-8 ATS. The Bears’ defense has been bad the L2 weeks, but the Texans offense just lost WR Will Fuller to a suspension and WR Brandin Cooks is questionable with foot and neck injuries. Four of the Bears’ last five games have been decided by one possession, so the fact they’ve lost all of them is a case of bad luck. This is a winnable game. 8* Chicago

8* Miami (1:00 ET): No one seems to take the Dolphins very seriously, despite their 8-4 SU record. Normally, I’d also be skeptical of a team with that record if they’ve been outgained on a per game/play basis like the ‘Fins have. But did you know that Miami has the FOURTH best point differential in the league this season (+91!)? They were my 10* NFL Game of the Year back on November 1st and that ended up being an outright 28-17 win as three-point dogs against the Rams. This spot feels eerily similar.

Kansas City is one of three teams with a better YTD point differential than the Dolphins. But they’ve been far from dominant of late. Each of their last four wins have been by six points or less and they are 0-4 ATS in those games. Those four wins have been by a total of 15 points and they’ve trailed at halftime in three of them. Last week, as a double digit home favorite, they trailed a bad Denver team for much of the first three quarters and scored just one offensive TD. 

While Miami’s offense is hardly explosive, they can lean on a defense that has produced a turnover in 18 consecutive games (longest active streak in the league) and allowed the second fewest points in the league this season. They’ve allowed just 10 total points in the L2 games and 21 or less in six of the last seven contests. They’ve covered six of those seven games and are a league-best 18-6 ATS since their Week 5 bye last season. This is a game the Dolphins very much can win and really need for their playoff hopes. Take the points. 8* Miami

8* UNLV (11:00 ET): It certainly hasn’t been a good year for UNLV. In fact, last week’s game vs. Boise State was probably for the best as the Rebels were quite likely to take a beating in that one. This is a team that’s already 0-5 SU (0-4-1 ATS) with every loss coming by at least 13 points. Because of that, you know that they’re going to be getting a ton of points every Saturday. This week though, it’s too many as the opponent just isn’t deserving of this price range. Take the points. 

Two weeks ago, I took Hawaii. It was here at home, but they were GETTING points. The opponent was Nevada, undefeated at the time, and the Warriors ended up pulling off a 24-21 outright win (were +7.5). Unfortunately, they were unable to sustain that momentum last week against San Jose State. That despite being dealt a major advantage in that the game was moved from San Jose to Honolulu (COVID). Hawaii lost 35-24 to fall to 3-4 SU on the year. They’ve been favored only twice in 2020 and failed to cover both times. One time they lost outright (at Wyoming). The other, they could only beat a winless New Mexico team by six here on the Island. 

Hawaii’s three wins this season have been by a total of 24 points. So you can see why I’d be so skeptical of laying so many points with them here. UNLV doesn’t want to finish the season winless (who would?), thus I expect a solid effort out of the underdog. The Rebels can control this game in the trenches as Hawaii is not particularly strong on either side along the offensive or defensive lines. At the very least, a Hawaii defense allowing more than 6.0 yards per play will keep the backdoor open. 8* UNLV

9* Virginia Tech (8:00 ET): Last year’s “Commonwealth Cup” was a rather sizable play for me. It was the day after Thanksgiving and my 10* College Football Game of the Year. I took Virginia, who had lost the previous 15 meetings, as a 2.5-point underdog. They won outright 39-30 thanks to a thrilling 4th quarter comeback (outscored Va Tech 19-3). Coming into this year, the two rivals are in much different form. Virginia is on a 4-game win streak and 5-0 ATS L5. Va Tech is on a 4-game losing streak while also going 0-4 ATS. 

For the first time in a LONG time, it “feels” like Virginia should be favored coming into this game. But it’s telling that they are not. Obviously, some of that has to do with the fact that the game is in Blacksburg. The Cavaliers have not won here since 1998 when they were ranked #16 in the country. Also, the entirety of UVA’s 4-game win streak has come in Charlottesville. One win was against a FCS foe. Last week they did beat Boston College for the 1st time ever, but the Eagles were without starting QB Phil Jurkovic and RB David Bailey. Despite this, the Hoos’ defense still allowed 32 points and 500+ yards. 

Almost all of those 500+ yards allowed came through the air. In fact, BC finished with -7 rush yards for the game after factoring in sack yardage. But Virginia Tech’s offense is #1 in the ACC in rushing yards, led by Khalil Herbert’s 7.6 yards per carry. Hokies HC Justin Fuente may very be coaching for his job Saturday night. Three of the Hokies’ six losses this year have been by a TD or less. They actually played Clemson pretty tough (for a half) last week despite losing the turnover battle and QB Hooker (he’s fine now). Virginia has not won a road game all year. Don’t be fooled by the records, Va Tech is better. 9* Virginia Tech

10* LSU (7:00 ET): LSU is once again “making history” in 2020, only unlike last season it’s a rather DUBIOUS history. Last week saw them close as a 28.5-point underdog at home vs. Alabama. That was the largest spread ever for a defending National Champion and the Tigers promptly got blown out 55-17. This week vs. Florida makes them the first team EVER to begin a season ranked in the Top 10 and end up being a 20+ point underdog in two separate games. Needless to say, it’s been a fairly ugly “fall from grace” for HC Ed Orgeron, who rode Joe Burrow to a National Championship 11 months ago. 

While I didn’t want to jump in front of the Alabama train last weekend, I do think this spread is far too high. My own power ratings say it should be closer to a 2 TD spread. That’s a lot of value. I successfully faded Florida last Saturday as I thought they were far too big of a favorite in Knoxville. While they did outgain Tennessee pretty substantially, it ended up being a 31-19 final due to a competitive first half and late Volunteers’ touchdown. This will be the 2nd largest Florida-LSU spread ever and largest since 1994 when Florida didn’t cover. 

By beating Tennessee last weekend, Florida has clinched a spot in next week’s SEC Championship Game where they’ll get their crack at top ranked Alabama. So this is a classic lookahead spot for the Gators. Obviously, the lookahead line for this game was a lot lower, not just at the start of the season, but even just a few weeks ago. This number is a product of recency bias and I just can’t see LSU getting blown out again. They’ve got too much talent and Orgeron is still on a 6-1 SU run after an SEC loss, not to mention 6-3 ATS as a dog despite last week’s result. Take the points. 10* LSU

8* Troy (3:00 ET): It’s not hyperbole to say last week’s 22-17 win over BYU was the biggest achievement in the history of Coastal Carolina football. The Chanticleers are now 10-0 SU and heading to the Sun Belt Championship Game (next week vs. Louisiana), not to mention maybe some place bigger if they win the next two games. That they were able to beat BYU, as a 10-pt underdog, on such short notice deserves a tip of the cap. But what about this week’s game? It sure feels like a “sandwich spot” and that’s dangerous when laying double digits on the road to a decent team. 

Troy is just 5-5 SU on the year and a money-burning 2-8 ATS. But they are off perhaps their most complete effort of the season, a 29-0 shutout of South Alabama where the defense allowed just 239 total yards. Back in the season opener, I took the Trojans when they rolled to a 47-14 win over Middle Tennessee. In my analysis, I stated I expected this team to improve from last season when it finished just 5-7 SU (three straight 10+ win seasons before that). That hasn’t really materialized, but there’s been some extenuating circumstances. QB Watson has missed time with a rib injury, COVID has interrupted the schedule and there have been three losses by seven points or less.

I just think it is going to be very hard for Coastal Carolina to prevail here by double digits. In addition to the letdown/lookahead nature of the spot, they were actually outgained by BYU last week, 405-366. They needed a tackle at the goal line to win the game. Remember that the Chanticleers were not just picked to finish behind Troy this season, but also LAST in the entire Sun Belt. With Watson back in the lineup last week, Troy more closely resembled the team I expected at the start of this season. This game was originally supposed to be played on November 14th. It being moved to this week is more of an advantage to the home dog. Take the points. 8* Troy

8* Minnesota (12:00 ET): I fully understand that PJ Fleck’s Golden Gophers have fallen short of expectations this season. Furthermore, the team has been hit hard by COVID with 40+ players/staff testing positive and the last two games getting cancelled as a result. As if that wasn’t rough enough, WR Rashod Bateman - arguably the best player on the team - has decided to opt out in order to prepare for the NFL Draft. That all being said, I just feel the number this week at Nebraska is way too high.

Nebraska has looked a lot better the last two weeks, particularly in last Saturday’s 37-27 win at Purdue. The week before, I took them and it was a pretty easy cover as double digit underdogs against Iowa. But this week will mark just the second time all season that the Cornhuskers have been favored to win a game. The first was three weeks ago vs. Illinois and they promptly lost that game - outright - as 17-point chalk. Given the ‘Huskers’ two wins this season are by a combined 17 points, and they were outgained substantially in one of those wins, this is not a good candidate to lay double digits with. 

The last four meetings of these Big 10 West rivals has seen the home team go 4-0. The last three years have all been decided victories. But Minnesota rarely gets blown out under Fleck. One of their three losses this year came by a single point. They too beat Purdue three weeks ago and save for the Iowa game, the offense has been quite productive (40+ pts in both road games). Even without Bateman, I expect the Gophers to score a decent amount here. They are 4-1 ATS L5 as a road underdog while Nebraska is just 1-5 ATS its L6 as a favorite. 8* Minnesota

8* Wake Forest (12:00 ET): Wake Forest boasts an impressive 6-1 ATS record and I’ve been fortunate to cash in on them multiple times. The first time was in a 37-13 LOSS to Clemson. As you probably ascertained, the line for that game (season opener) was quite high. The next time was “more like it” (especially if you’re from Winston-Salem) as the Demon Deacons pulled an outright upset over Virginia Tech, 23-16 as 10.5-point underdogs. Then I took them again vs. North Carolina, which ended up as a 59-53 loss, but they still covered +12.5. 

That North Carolina game seems like FOREVER ago, so I was surprised when I saw it’s the last game Wake Forest has played. It was nearly one month ago to the date. It’s actually the only game they’ve played since October! Despite the long layoff, I expect the team to play well here. The offense, led by QB Sam Hartman, is averaging 39.3 PPG this season. They’ve scored 40 or more four times. They led North Carolina by 21 in the second half. The only other loss besides that and Clemson was by three points to an 8-win NC State team. The Deacons could very easily be on a 6-game SU win streak heading into this game. 

Louisville has also been victimized by some close losses this season. They are 3-7 SU, but four of those losses have been by 7 points or less. Still that didn’t stop HC Scott Satterfield from exploring an offer to take the South Carolina job, which angered fans and I’m sure his players. Unlike Wake Forest, who hosts Florida State next week, this is Louisville’s final game. They are likely not going bowling and may not be too excited to play for a coach that just thought about leaving the program. All three L’ville wins this season have been against pretty bad teams. Don’t see them winning here against what I feel is one of the more underrated teams in the country. 8* Wake Forest

10* LA Chargers (4:25 ET): The Chargers were “spared” what would have been yet another close loss last week as QB Justin Herbert was stuffed at the goal line on the final play. That cost me a cover though (would have been a 6-0 Sunday!). Thus it ended up being a 24-14 loss in Buffalo (I did cash the Under), dropping the Chargers to 3-8 SU on the year. They did outgain the Bills (ever so slightly), 367-332. Seven of those eight losses have been by eight points or less with four of them seeing LA blow a double digit lead! I realize you could say this most years, but the Chargers really are better than their record. 

The Patriots really had no business winning last week. The offense gained only 179 total yards at a pathetic 3.5 yards per play. This offense - with Cam Newton at the helm - just isn’t very good. Over the L8 weeks, New England has scored more than 23 points only one time and that was against the winless Jets. Though the market continues to show them respect (Belichick factor?), I think it’s important to realize the Pats are simply a below average football team right now. They’ve been outgained on the year - both per game and per play - and been outscored by 26 points. Newton has a 4-9 TD-INT ratio and will be missing his left tackle. 

Home field advantage may not mean much to the Chargers, especially this year, but they really should be at least a three-point favorite in this spot. This is a team that led the Chiefs, Bucs and Saints by double digits! The one bright spot of the season has been the play of rookie QB Justin Herbert, who is averaging over 300 YPG. RB Austin Ekler returned last week and had 129 total yards. The Patriots defense is giving up 7.6 yards per attempt, which ranks 31st. “Now or never” (for the Chargers) might seem a bit hyperbolic, but after five straight ATS losses, they really should win here. 10* LA Chargers

9* Arizona (4:05 ET): When they were 5-2 SU, the Cardinals were looking like one of the real pleasant surprises in the league. I figured this would be an improved outfit in Kliff Kingsbury’s second season at the helm, but the last four weeks have been a bit concerning. The Cards have failed to cover four in a row and the lone SU win in that stretch came on a Hail Mary pass at home vs. Buffalo. Following a tough loss last week at New England, they return home this week and are underdogs in a key NFC West matchup.

The Rams are 7-4 SU, one game ahead of Arizona for second place in the division. They too are off a loss as they fell 23-20 at home to San Francisco. In looking at the Rams’ home vs. road splits, the one thing that becomes apparent is that their defense seems to “fail to travel.” They are giving up 23.3 PPG on the road, not a bad number, but it’s a lot more than the 15.0 PPG they’re allowing at home. As a road favorite, the Rams are just 1-2 SU/ATS this season. They are 3-5 SU/ATS L8 games as a road fave of 3 pts or less. Also, take away the four games against the sorry NFC East and the Rams are just 3-3 SU overall this year. 

Arizona should have beaten New England last week, but missed the potential game-winning FG with under two minutes to go. That allowed the Patriots to go kick the GW. The Cardinals’ defense allowed just 179 yards. While both of these offenses have had success running the football, Arizona is 1st in yards per carry while the Rams are only 18th. I vehemently disagreed with the way the line moved in LA’s favor early in the week and think this is a great “buy low” spot on the Cardinals, who will be quite eager to beat Rams HC Sean McVay for the first time in seven tries. 9* Arizona

8* NY Jets (1:00 ET): Yes, I’m taking the winless Jets (0-11) this week. My suspicions over Las Vegas were confirmed last week when they suffered an atrocious 43-6 loss in Atlanta. As someone who had the Falcons +3 and was quite confident about the bet, even I could not have fathomed that result. The game was never really competitive and the Raiders turning it over five times certainly didn’t help. Something I want to reiterate from last week is just how few times Las Vegas has been favored this season. This will be only the 4th time it's happened. They are lucky to be 6-5 SU considering they have a -27 pt differential. 

With so little positives emanating from the Jets’ side of things, this is obviously a clear fade on the Silver and Black. I just don’t think that the Raiders should be favored by this many points on the road, against anybody. This matchup is obviously the “litmus test” for that assessment, but it’s worth noting that my own personal power ratings say this spread should only be -2.5! This will be the first time the Raiders close as a road favorite of 7 pts or more since 2002, which was the year they went to the Super Bowl with Rich Gannon as the MVP. That was a LONG time ago. 

Let’s try and pick out SOME positives with the Jets, shall we? RB Frank Gore should have a big game this week facing a suspect Raiders’ run defense. QB Sam Darnold, who has not thrown a TD pass in his last 19 quarters of action, is due. Before losing 20-3 to Miami last week, New York had covered three of four with losses to Buffalo, New England and the Chargers all coming by 8 points or fewer. With just one home game left after this week, this may be the Jets’ best shot at avoiding a winless season. No one wants to go 0-16, so I expect effort. Take the points. 8* NY Jets

8* Fresno State (9:00 ET): Gonna go ahead and fade Nevada in the late night spot again as the Wolf Pack showed last week they are not a good team to lay points with. They lost outright on “the Island” (Hawaii), 24-21, trailing for the entire second half. While it was their first loss of the season, three of Nevada’s five victories thus far have come in one possession games and they’ve hardly faced a daunting schedule. Despite the outright loss last week, my power ratings say the Wolf Pack remains overvalued. 

This will be Fresno State’s first game in three weeks. They come in as winners of three straight (also 3-0 ATS) as they’ve predictably bounced back a bit from LY’s disappointing 4-win campaign. (The previous two years saw the Bulldogs go 22-6 SU overall). Over the course of the current 3-game run, FSU has averaged 37.7 points and 486.7 yards. So them getting this many points seems like quite the ideal situation. They are on a 3-1 ATS run vs. Nevada and have won five of the last eight H2H meetings outright. 

Fresno has also played well on the road the last few years, going 9-6 SU and 10-5 ATS. They are 5-2 ATS the L7 times they’ve been an underdog, picking up three outright wins. These Mountain West rivals seem pretty evenly matched to me, so taking the points is a no brainer. Only two of Nevada’s games have been decided by more than two points and those were against UNLV and Utah State, who are a combined 1-10 SU. Something from last week’s analysis I’d like to reiterate is that Nevada’s third down conversion percentage and red zone efficiency are unlikely to be maintained. Fresno State’s defense does an excellent job at getting to the QB. 8* Fresno State

9* Baylor (8:00 ET): Since suffering B2B upset losses at the hands of Kansas State and Iowa State, #11 Oklahoma has really seized control of its destiny in the Big 12. The Sooners have rattled off five consecutive victories, averaging 50.2 PPG in the process. They’ve covered the spread in all five games as well. They were scheduled to go to Morgantown (West Virginia) last weekend, but that game had to be rescheduled for December 12th due to COVID. After such an impressive stretch, I’m not surprised to see OU a bit overvalued this week and don’t be surprised if they come out rusty after the unexpected week off. 

Baylor’s season has very much been the opposite of Oklahoma’s. They’ve won just one time since opening the season with a 47-14 win against lowly Kansas. But all five losses have been relatively close (by 11 pts or fewer) and the Bears did come from behind to down Kansas State last week, 32-31, as QB Charlie Brewer completed 80% of his pass attempts for 349 yards. Brewer also ran for 56 yards and was responsible for four touchdowns. One good sign for Baylor is that they’ve yet to lose the turnover battle in a single game this season and they’ve forced a total of eight turnovers in the L3 games. 

The Bears easily could have a better record than 2-5 SU as they’ve blown leads in three of their losses. That’s a far cry from last season when they were winning all the close games en route to an appearance in the Big 12 Championship Game … vs. Oklahoma. They played OU tough in both meetings last year, losing by a total of just 10 points. Last week’s comeback should give them some much needed confidence and as good as Oklahoma has looked recently, they can’t keep performing at that level every Saturday. Baylor is 9-4 ATS its L13 road games and is 11-5-1 ATS L17 games as the underdog. 9* Baylor

10* California (7:00 ET): Oregon was a big-time fade (-13.5 @ Oregon State) on this end last week. Sure enough, they lost outright in Corvallis by a score of 41-38. I think the initial belief most bettors have when looking at a line like this is “the Ducks aren’t going to lose twice in a row.” But that can be a dangerous mindset to have, especially seeing just how shaky Oregon has been to this point. California, who is 0-3, comes in desperate here. Maybe they don’t follow in Oregon State’s “footsteps” and pull off the outright upset. But they’ll keep it close and at least cover the spread. Take the points. 

Cal isn’t as bad as its record. While they were blown out by UCLA (34-10) in the season opener, go ahead and write that result off as they played that one “impromptu” with a limited roster on a Sunday morning. Since then they’ve lost close to both Oregon State and Stanford, by a combined five points. They had the total yardage edge in both games and last week’s one-point loss to Stanford was BRUTAL as the Bears had the potential game-tying extra point BLOCKED in the final minute. This is a good number to be catching seeing as how Cal is 18-8 ATS as a dog (11 outright wins) under HC Justin Wilcox including 7-3 ATS when taking double digits (four outright wins). 

To all thinking “bounce back” (for Oregon) this week, a Ducks’ defense that gave up 532 yards to Oregon State should give you pause. In their last three games, Oregon has allowed an average of 35.0 points and 471.7 yards. In last year’s 17-7 win at Berkeley, the Ducks faced a Cal team that didn’t have starting QB Chase Garbers (injured). Garbers was 7-0 SU as the starter in 2019 and should have a “big game” here against the porous Oregon defense. Cal could easily be 2-1 SU right now while Oregon is lucky it isn’t 2-2 (as they were +4 in turnovers in a 38-35 win over UCLA two weeks ago). 10* California

8* Tennessee (3:30 ET): Tennessee comes into this game really “down in the dumps” as HC Jeremy Pruitt is firmly on the hot seat in Knoxville. An upset of #6 Florida would do wonders when it comes to saving Pruitt’s job. Not saying that’s going to happen Saturday, but taking the points is the way to go in this heated SEC rivalry where you can “throw records out the window.” If the Volunteers, losers of five in a row SU & ATS, can’t keep this one close at home and off a bye, then Pruitt is likely a “goner.” 

Since suffering its lone defeat of the season, 41-38 at Texas A&M, Florida has WON five in a row. So we’re looking at the complete opposite trajectory of Tennessee. However, with the exception of the big win over Georgia, the Gators have really been beating up on the dregs of the Southeastern Conference. The other four wins have been against: Kentucky, Vandy, Arkansas and Missouri. One more win gets the Gators into their first SEC Championship Game since 2016, likely against #1 Alabama. The thing is I don’t think HC Dan Mullen is looking for any “style points” at this juncture. He just wants the win. 

Tennessee led Auburn 10-0 two weeks ago, which was the last time we saw them. The game really swung on a 100-yard ‘pick-six’ thrown by Vols QB Jarrett Guarantano. There is some speculation that Guarantano is one of the several Tennessee players in quarantine. Because of the two week layoff, many are still expected to play Saturday. Even if Guarantano doesn’t play, look out for freshman QB Harrison Bailey to possibly provide a spark. I know things aren’t looking good in Knoxville and it’s tough to make a case, but look for UT to keep this one closer than expected. Note: Florida has been favored by 17 or more just two times against Tennessee. Both were in Gainesville and they went 0-2 ATS, even losing one outright (2001). Take the points. 8* Tennessee

8* Auburn (12:00 ET): Auburn was clearly outclassed last week in a 42-13 loss to Alabama. But the good news (for them) is that the “Iron Bowl” comes but only once a year. Now they are faced with yet another Top 5 opponent this week in Texas A&M. But the Aggies looked thoroughly unimpressive in a 20-7 win over LSU last weekend in College Station. Even Auburn was able to beat “those Tigers” 48-11. Key here is this game is at Jordan-Hare, which means Auburn QB Bo Nix should play well (he usually does at home). I disagree with the line move as well and think we’re now getting a real solid value on the home dog. 

Auburn has a really strong home vs. road dichotomy this season as they are 4-0 SU here at Jordan-Hare (winning by an average of 17.0 PPG), but just 1-3 SU on the road. Going back to 2016, this will be just the 7th time that the Tigers are catching points at home. They’ve gone 5-1 ATS previously with four outright wins. Despite having lost three times this season, I still consider Auburn a Top 25 team in the country and my own power ratings have this game as a near pick ‘em. Despite being ranked #5 by the committee, Texas A&M is no Alabama (remember they lost to the Crimson Tide by 28 points themselves.

A&M has been just as inconsistent as Auburn this season and it's usually because of the offense. They only barely beat Vanderbilt in the season opener and then last week could only put up 20 on an LSU defense that had REALLY been struggling. Of the two touchdowns they scored, one was by the defense. So the offensive performance was even WORSE than you think as they put up less than 300 total yards and the lone TD scored came on a big 52-yard run. Off their last 10 SEC losses, Auburn is 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS, so history says they are going to play a lot better this week. Take the points. 8* Auburn

8* Kansas (12:00 ET): If you’ve been betting against Kansas this year, chances are you’ve done quite well for yourself. The Jayhawks currently check in with an 0-7-1 against the spread record and have yet to win a game straight up. The Over is 7-0-1 in their games as they’ve given up an average of 49.8 points. But a brief glimmer of hope appeared last week in the form of QB Miles Kendrick, who came in and completed 11 of 16 pass attempts for 166 yards and two touchdowns. We’d seen Kendrick previously this season, but that relief effort almost assuredly will earn him the starting gig for this Saturday’s game at Texas Tech. 

This is a dangerous number for Texas Tech to be laying this week. (Update: TT coach Matt Wells tested positive for COVID). Sure, Kansas isn’t good. But neither are the Red Raiders, who come in at 3-6 SU and ATS. They are off a narrow loss to Oklahoma State, 50-44, where they covered the 12.5-point spread due to a pair of late scores. While Kansas is universally recognized as the worst team in the Big 12, Texas Tech is definitely the second worst. Their three wins this season have come by a total of 10 points. One of them was against a FCS opponent (Houston Baptist) where they had to stop a 2-point conversion in the final minutes. This is the first time they’ve been favored since that game, which was the season opener. 

Thanks to Kendrick, KU matched its season high in scoring last week with 23 points (against TCU). This week they face a Red Raiders defense that just surrendered 50 points and 539 yards to an Oklahoma State team that was without its top two running backs. I predict the Jayhawks will achieve a new season-high in points this week as Texas Tech is giving up 39.3 points and 470.6 yards per game. As bad as Kansas has been in 2020, it seems improbable that they could go an entire season without covering a game. They allowed THREE non-offensive TDs last week, which won't happen again. Texas Tech doesn’t deserve to be favored by this many points against anybody and remember they are the last team to lose to Kansas (37-34 last season). My power rankings say this number is off by a full TD. Hold your nose and take the points! 8* Kansas

8* Louisiana (8:30 ET): Normally, with the Sun Belt Championship Game (vs. unbeaten Coastal Carolina) on deck, this might be considered a “look ahead” spot for Louisiana. But not with the Ragin Cajuns’ history against Appalachian State. This is a major revenge game for the Sun Belt West Champs as they have lost eight consecutive times to App State, including twice last season. But it “feels” like this is the 1st time Louisiana (who is ranked 24th in the country) is the better team and I’m taking them plus the points Friday night. 

Appalachian State just hasn’t been quite as strong in 2020 compared to past seasons. This will be the first time since 2017 that the Mountaineers WON’T be playing for the conference title. They are just 2-7 ATS this year, though that can be pinned on the large pointspreads they face on a weekly basis. The only two SU losses for ASU this season have come against a pair of unbeaten teams, Marshall and Coastal Carolina, both by double digits. While there’s no shame in either loss (both on the road), those were the only two decent teams the Mountaineers have faced to this point. 

Louisiana also lost to Coastal Carolina, 30-27, with the game decided on a last second field goal. They’ve won five in a row since and while there have been numerous close calls all year long (four wins by 7 pts or less), last week wasn’t one of them as they put up 70 against hideous LA Monroe. Also, the Ragin Cajuns hold a 31-14 win over Iowa State (on the road), which keeps looking better and better as the Cyclones continue their ascent in the Big 12 standings. Louisiana is going to be the more motivated side Friday night. 8* Louisiana

10* North Texas (6:00 ET): This has been a College Football season like none other before it and few things embody that assessment more than the fact Louisiana Tech did not play a single game in November! The Bulldogs last played Halloween night when they “treated” backers to a 37-34 upset of UAB (in overtime) as 12.5-point home underdogs. North Texas can certainly empathize with La Tech’s recent plight as the Mean Green also went a full month without playing a game before getting to take the field each of the last two weeks. But they are the team in better “game shape” heading into this one and I’ll follow the money (line move). 

I should note that my own power ratings actually disagree with the line move here. But I’m disregarding those rankings in this instance as they are obviously unaware of the long layoff for Louisiana Tech. Also, my power rankings have overestimated the Bulldogs before. I made the mistake of taking them in an October home game vs. UTEP, which they won by only 4 points despite being a two touchdown favorite. Louisiana Tech has not outgained a single FBS opponent this season and had dropped four in a row ATS (1-3 SU) before the upset of UAB where they were outgained by 104 yards. The Bulldogs are bottom 20 in the country in total offense, which will be a welcome reprieve for a struggling North Texas defense. 

Believe it or not, but the Mean Green were considered a “sharp side” going into last Saturday’s tilt w/ UTSA, which they promptly lost 49-17 as 1-pt underdogs. Clearly taking sharp money again this week, they hope for a better result now that they’re back in Denton. Like North Texas, La Tech struggles defensively. The difference is they are going to have to contend with an offense that is top 5 in the country, averaging 536.9 YPG! The home team simply has a massive edge offensively in this one. You would not know that by watching North Texas’ last two games, but the last time I took them they put up 52 points and 768 total yards in a blowout win over Middle Tennessee. They are the right side here as LA Tech should not be favored on the road. 10* North Texas

10* Philadelphia (8:15 ET): I had tremendous success taking home dogs on Sunday and here’s another one where I see a ton of value. Seattle may be regarded as one of the league’s better teams, but they tend to be involved in a lot of close games. So far, seven of their 10 games have been decided by one score. This is a continuation from last season where they went an extremely fortunate 11-3 SU in one-score games. That good fortune has carried over to this year with a 5-2 SU record in those games. Bottom line: the Seahawks may be winning, but they usually win close.

Normally, if a team was a 3-6-1, they’d already be thinking about next season. But because the Eagles (who have that record) play in the NFC East, they are very much still alive for a division title and playoff berth. This despite B2B “ugly” losses to the Giants and Browns. But both of those came on the road. Since losing to the Rams 39-17 back in Week 2, the Eagles are 2-1-1 SU here in Philly with the lone loss coming by two points against the Ravens. That loss to the Ravens was the only other time this season where they were a home dog and they covered the spread. 

Seattle is far from invincible when they hit the road. Their record away from home this season is just 2-3 straight up and against the spread. And let’s not forget just how awful the Seahawks’ pass defense has been. They are allowing 343.7 YPG through the air, most in the league. So I can see Eagles QB Carson Wentz, who has struggled, having his best game in a while here. Even though they are 7-3 SU, Seattle has been outgained by their opponents this season. The Eagles are actually even w/ theirs on a per play basis. Take the points. 10* Philadelphia

10* Tampa Bay (4:25 ET): The Bucs suffered another primetime loss on Monday, this one against the Rams 27-24. Primetime has accounted for three of the team’s four losses this season and they are 0-4 ATS in such games, the lone win being a nail-biter over the 3-7 Giants. So Tom Brady and company have to be pretty happy to be playing in the 4 PM (ET) window this week, even if the opponent is Kansas City. When NOT playing in primetime this year, Brady is 6-1 SU with the only loss coming back in Week 1 (at New Orleans).

This will also be just the third time this season that Tampa Bay is an underdog. The first was that Week 1 loss in New Orleans. The other was an outright win against Green Bay here at home. Brady is 10-1 ATS with nine outright wins as a home dog in his illustrious career. That earlier win against the Packers marked just the 4th time in the last 15 seasons that Brady has been a home dog. He’s won outright all four times. Brady is also 15-8 ATS coming off a Monday night game. I think this is a great value as my power rankings still say TB should be a slight favorite here. 

Kansas City brings in a vaunted reputation as the defending Super Bowl champs. They are 9-1 SU this season and just avenged their only defeat by beating the Raiders last Sunday night. But they needed a last minute TD to get the win in Vegas and it was the second straight win by four points or less. The defense allowed 31 points to both the Panthers and Raiders. They’ve been particularly susceptible against the pass. The Bucs’ defense, which is outstanding against the run (#1 in the league), can make the Chiefs’ offense one-dimensional. Take the points. 10* Tampa Bay

8* Atlanta (1:00 ET): After playing well in front of a national television audience, the Raiders were the recipients of some “early money” this week, getting bet up to the current price. We had ‘em last Sunday night when they covered against the Chiefs and almost took the game outright. But they lost, 35-31, and what’s interesting here is that this is just the third time all season Las Vegas has been favored! Atlanta has been a giant disappointment in 2020 (already fired their HC), but I don’t think they should be a dog here. 

The Falcons were off their bye last week and facing a QB making his first career start (Taysom Hill). But you can’t discount just how good the Saints are playing right now. Atlanta ended up losing 24-9, dropping them to 3-7 SU on the year. What was so disappointing about LW’s loss is that the Falcons had been playing better before the bye. They’d won three of four games with the only loss coming by 1 point. Looking at the remaining schedule, which is just brutal, this is probably the Falcons’ best shot at picking up another win for interim HC Raheem Morris.

I firmly believe that bettors have overreacted to Las Vegas; close call vs. Kansas City last week. Remember that game was at home. That the Raiders have been favored only twice so far is a clear indication that they have overachieved. Factoring in the fact this game is in Atlanta, I’ve got it rated as a toss-up. The Falcons haven’t been a home dog this season. Matt Ryan, who was sacked eight times by the Saints, should have a much better game this week against the #28 rated pass defense. Also, Las Vegas has the 2nd fewest sacks in the league with 11. The Falcons are better than their record while the Raiders (who have been outgained by their opponents) aren’t as good as theirs. 8* Atlanta

8* Cincinnati (1:00 ET): Ok, so the Bengals’ season appears pretty much done. They are 2-7-1 SU and now have to go the rest of the way without starting QB Joe Burrow. They lost the #1 overall draft pick for the remainder of the season last week in Washington. Shell-shocked, they were shutout in the second half and lost 24-9. It should be pointed out that they were winning going into the break. This line has seen the most movement of any on the board this week as Cincinnnati was to be a short home favorite. With Burrow out and backup Brandon Allen to start in his place, the Giants are now a significant road favorite. 

The Giants should never be a road favorite of this size. Against anybody. I don’t care if Burrow is out; I don’t think he’s worth this much to the pointspread. While New York has been a covering machine on the road as of late (8-0 ATS L8), they haven’t been a road favorite of more than four points in almost four years. This is the 1st time since 2012 that a team with a win percentage of .333 or worse is a road favorite of more than a field goal. Since 1990, such teams are just 3-7 STRAIGHT UP! As a reminder, the Giants’ SU record is 3-7 with two of those wins coming by a combined four points against Washington. 

With Burrow, the Bengals were pretty good at keeping games close. Four of their seven losses have come by five points or less. Two of the exceptions came against the Steelers and Ravens. The other was last week, but the good news is that Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS off a loss this year. Allen at least has starting experience in this league and is probably an upgrade over the team’s other backup, Ryan Finley. The Giants have zero wins outside the division this year. They are the ONLY team in the league w/o a 3-game win streak the L4 seasons. Take the points. 8* Cincinnati

8* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): So this probably could go one of two ways for the Jaguars. Either they pull an outright upset, or they get blown out. At 1-9 SU (that one win came in Wk 1), the Jags are turning to Mike Glennon at QB this week. It will be Glennon’s first NFL start in more than three years. It’s not an ideal spot to return to the starting role as the Jags will be missing numerous players - on both sides of the ball - due to COVID. But make no mistake about it, this play is a clear fade on Cleveland, who also has COVID issues.

The Browns are a surprising 7-3 SU this year, but they’ve taken advantage of a very weak schedule. Even more damning is the fact they have a -23 point differential. That’s worse than the 3-7 Chargers, who have a -13 point differential. Cleveland has also been fortunate to go 4-0 SU in one-score games this season. Two of those wins have come the L2 weeks, 10-7 over Houston and 22-17 against Philadelphia. The offense has scored 22 points or less in 4 of the last 5 games, scoring 10 or less three times! 

This will also be the Browns’ first time playing on the road in November! Their last three games were all at home. If they close at -7, it will mark the first time they’ve been favored by that many on the road since Bill Belichick was roaming the sidelines in 1995! Baker Mayfield, who I believe to be a below-average NFL QB, is just 7-11-2 ATS as a favorite in his pro career. That includes 1-5 on the road with four outright losses. By the way, the Browns are just 1-4 ATS their L5 games overall. They will be without five players, one of them Myles Garrett, and haven’t been able to practice together much this week. Hold your nose and take the points. 8* Jacksonville

8* LA Chargers (1:00 ET): As I’ve harped on many times before, how a team performs in close games will largely dictate how the overall season goes. For further evidence of that, let’s look at the Chargers and Bills in 2020. Los Angeles has only been outscored by 13 points, but is 3-7 SU due to the fact they’ve lost 7 of 9 one-possession games. Meanwhile, Buffalo is 7-3 SU despite only a +7 point differential because they are 5-1 in one score games. The Chargers are better than their record while the reverse is true for the Bills. This is similar to the Raiders-Falcons game, so once again we’re taking the points. 

The Chargers are actually off a close WIN, though there was no reason for that game to be close. They held on to beat the winless Jets 34-28 after opening up a 31-13 lead in the second half. Holding leads has been a problem all season for the Lightning Bolts as they’ve lost four games in which they held a DD lead. That’s not good. But leading the likes of Kansas City, New Orleans and Tampa Bay by double digits shows this team has got talent. Rookie QB Justin Herbert has played great. The fact the team is a dog this week is appealing in that we’re “safe” were they to lose close again. But I expect them to win this week.

Buffalo suffered its lone close loss of the season two weeks ago when Arizona completed a Hail Mary. They had a week off (bye) to reflect on letting that one get away. Bottom line though is that they were outgained by the Cardinals and gave up 453 yards. The Bills defense has taken a step back this season as it is giving up 6.1 yards per play. The Chargers rank 3rd (in the league!) in total offense. So far, Buffalo is just 2-2 SU when facing top five offenses. The Chargers are 9-4-2 ATS as a road underdog under HC Anthony Lynn and 46-21-5 ATS in the role since 2004. Herbert is 3-0 ATS as a dog of five or more points. This “smells” like an upset. 8* LA Chargers

8* Hawaii (11:00 ET): There are only eight teams in College Football currently 5-0 (straight up) or better. One of them is Nevada. Hats off to the Wolf Pack for this start and they are one of three Mountain West teams without a loss. But they really haven’t played anybody. Three of their five wins - UNLV, Utah State and New Mexico - are over teams in the bottom 10 of my personal power rankings (MWC has some BAD teams). They are also 3-0 in games decided by 7 points or less. This week is going to be their toughest test to date. 

Hawaii is just 2-3 SU thus far as they are coming off a home loss last week to Boise State. They did cover the 13-point spread against the Broncos, but the game wasn’t really as close as the final score indicated. The Warriors trailed 33-9 in the third quarter, only to then get things going with the game out of reach. Still, that was just their second game on the island in 2020. Typically, Hawaii has a pretty strong home field edge (13-6 SU L19 home games) and Nevada certainly isn’t as strong as Boise State.

Nevada is just 6-13 ATS its L19 games when laying 3.5 to 7 points on the road. That includes eight outright losses. I think an outright upset is definitely ‘in play’ Saturday night considering the fact Hawaii won 54-3 in Reno last year! Thus far, the Hawaii offense has been a lot more potent at home than on the road. The defense leads the conference in interceptions. Nevada’s defense has had a really high success rate on third down, which very well may not continue. Take the points here. 8* Hawaii

10* Navy (7:00 ET): This has been a down year so far in Annapolis. Some of that was to be expected after the Midshipmen jumped back up to a 11-2 SU record last season (from 3-11 SU in 2018). Let’s also be honest in saying that COVID-19 has affected their “ranks” more than most teams. There were two horrible, early season losses to BYU (55-3) and Air Force (40-7). But other than those, they’ve played pretty well. They’re 3-2 SU otherwise. This will be their first game in four weeks due to the pandemic as they are off three straight cancellations. One of those three is being made up here w/ a Sat night visit from Memphis.

Memphis has also been affected by cancellations in a season where they too were expected to regress. The Tigers are 5-2 SU, which is still good, but consider this was a 12-2 team a season ago that won the American Conference. Their two losses, both on the road, were against SMU and Cincinnati. Since losing 49-10 at unbeaten Cincinnati, Memphis has escaped with a one-point victory over a bad USF team and beaten FCS Stephen F Austin 56-14. They were supposed to face Navy in between those two opponents, but again COVID-19 struck. The offense has been great so far, but you can’t say the same about the defense. 

Year in and year out, Navy usually has one of the nation’s premier rushing attacks. This year has been a little different as the triple-option wasn’t that effective early in the season. However, over the past four games the Middies have run for 251, 288, 166 and 191 yards. Memphis does not have a good run defense, even though the overall numbers say it isn’t that bad. But those numbers, specifically the rush defense, are skewed by LW’s game vs. a FCS team. UCF and Cincinnati were able to average 220+ RYPG.  The Tigers have not won a road game all season and are just 2-8 ATS L10 games. Navy is 12-4 ATS its L16 conference games. Take the points. 10* Navy

8* Penn State (12:00 ET): Penn State and Michigan are a combined 1-9 ATS this season. Even more surprising is they are a combined 2-8 straight up! Both SU wins belong to Michigan, one of those coming last week in triple overtime against Rutgers. So this game has nowhere near the anticipation it normally does. Penn State is 0-5 SU and ATS, which is the worst start in program history (134 years and counting). As shocking as that is, the Nittany Lions are actually outgaining opponents on the season, which is something Michigan cannot claim. I remain less sold on the Wolverines despite them winning last week. 

Were it not for turnovers, we’d probably be talking about Penn State in a much different light. They outgained three of their first four opponents (Ohio State the exception), two of them by 200+ yards! They were only slightly outgained (19 yards) by Iowa last week in a 41-21 defeat, which was the second game in three weeks the Nittany Lions were -3 in turnover differential. I think it’s fair to say this is among the unluckiest teams in all of College Football. They should have at least a couple wins under their belt. 

The big story with Michigan is that they believe they’ve finally found their starting QB. It’s too little, too late to mean anything for 2020, but last week saw Cade McNamara come on in relief for the ineffective Joe Milton and lead the comeback win against Rutgers. But it’s a pretty sorry state of affairs in Ann Arbor when the faithful are celebrating a 3OT win over a team (Rutgers) that’s 1-25 SU its last 26 Big 10 games. The Wolverines were down double digits in the first half last week. Their secondary is just awful as three of the last four opponents have thrown for 323+ yards. 8* Penn State

10* Oregon State (7:30 ET): #15 Oregon heads to Corvallis with an undefeated record, but they were lucky to get by with a 38-35 win over UCLA last weekend. The Ducks got outgained but were the beneficiaries of four Bruins’ turnovers. Their defense definitely proved susceptible to run as it allowed 267 yards on the ground. They are giving up 5.2 yards per carry for the season. In case you didn’t know, Oregon State has one of the top RB’s in the Pac 12, if not the entire country, in Jermar Jefferson. Take the points here.

Jefferson had 196 yards on just 18 carries in last week’s 31-27 win over Cal. That was the Beavers’ first win of the season, but they did cover the 13-point spread the week prior at Washington, losing only 27-21. Jefferson has gone over 100 yards in all three games so far and facing an Oregon defense that is giving up 188 rush yards per game, he should make it 4 for 4 this week. The Ducks have also surrendered a total of 64 points the last two weeks. OSU is 10-3 ATS as an underdog since the start of last season (2-0 this year).

They’ve won outright five times as a dog the last two seasons and they are also 9-3 ATS L12 Pac 12 games, which is second only to Utah in that same stretch. It’s also the 4th best ATS conference record in the country. Oregon is really going to struggle to stop Jefferson and the Oregon State offense here and thus it’s difficult to see them covering a double digit spread on the road. With this being a rivalry game, it’s not like the home team is going to be lacking for motivation. 10* Oregon State

8* North Carolina (3:30 ET): This boils down to the simple fact that North Carolina scores too many points to be catching this many at home. Two weeks ago, the Tar Heels hung 59 points and almost 750 total yards in a wild, come from behind win against underrated Wake Forest. You may recall I successfully faded UNC in that one, but I almost learned the “hard way” at just how explosive the offense is here in Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels scored touchdowns on five consecutive drives across the 3rd/4th quarters and almost covered.

The Heels are averaging 43.1 PPG for the season and have gone over 55 in each of the last two games. They have more pass plays of 40+ yards (12) than every other ACC team. They also lead the conference in yards per play (7.7). While they’ve stumbled twice as favorites this season (to Florida State and Virginia), both of those losses were by just three points. This game will mark the first time in 2020 that Mack Brown’s team is an underdog and it comes at home where they are undefeated and averaging 48.5 PPG.

Notre Dame’s defense has been super thus far as it leads the ACC in scoring. But they’ve yet to face an offense like North Carolina’s. Remember that they played Clemson w/o Trevor Lawrence and still gave up 40 points and almost 500 total yards. Other than that, it’s been Duke, USF, Florida State, Louisville, Pitt, Ga Tech and Boston College. North Carolina isn’t just 2-0 ATS as a home dog since HC Mack Brown returned, they are also 3-0 ATS vs. ranked teams. The Fighting Irish have lost outright four of the last five times they’ve been road chalk of six points or less. Take the points. 8* North Carolina

8* Nebraska (1:00 ET): It’s certainly been an interesting season thus far in Lincoln where Nebraska lost LW to Illinois by a score of 41-23. They were 17-pt favorites in that game. The week prior saw them beat Penn State despite buying outgained by over 200 yards. The week before that they outgained Northwestern (who is still unbeaten), but lost by eight points as SEVEN trips to the red zone yielded only 13 points! Scott Frost is very much on the “hot seat” right now and cannot afford another loss to Iowa. Maybe he does lose again here, but I’m banking on the Cornhuskers covering the spread. Take the points. 

Iowa is back in the Top 25 (currently #24) thanks to a three-game SU/ATS win streak where they’ve averaged 41.7 PPG. But they weren’t really as dominant as you might think in last week’s 41-21 win at Penn State. It was only a 362-343 edge in total yardage. The Hawkeyes not only lost to the same N’western team that got Nebraska earlier in the year, but they also fell here in Iowa City to Purdue. No Iowa team has covered four straight regular season games since the 2004 version. This is a lot of points to be laying in a rivalry game.

Turnovers were a big key for both teams last week. Iowa scored 24 points off four Penn State TO’s while Nebraska coughed it up five times in its loss. Frost is being coy about his QB situation, but that works to our benefit as Iowa can’t be sure about what signal caller to prepare for. Nebraska has lost five straight years to Iowa, but the last two under Frost have both been three point games. I think we’re getting an inflated number here due to the respective results from last week. 8* Nebraska

8* Massachusetts (12:00 ET): UMass could very well be the worst team in all of College Football, but this is just a terrible spot for Liberty to be laying such an extraordinary amount of points. The Flames had their undefeated season extinguished last Saturday at NC State in a gut-wrenching 15-14 loss. QB Malik Willis threw three picks and was 13 of 32 passing. But though they lost straight up, Liberty did keep alive its ATS win streak (now at 6 games) as they were four-point underdogs. That 6-0 ATS run is probably why this number is still so high, but I’m taking the points.

Full disclosure - I’m not going to sell you that UMass is somehow “good.” They’re not. But the Minutemen should have enough pride to stay within the number. Having scored just 12 points through three games is not encouraging. But last week they were up against a very good Florida Atlantic defense. The week before they were facing undefeated Marshall. As ugly as the three losses have been this season, the Minutemen are now 6-2 ATS L8 times taking 31+ points.

Having the bubble “burst” on their unbeaten season puts Liberty in a huge letdown spot this week. Furthermore, they face undefeated Coastal Carolina next week, so the ‘look ahead’ factor is in play as well. This is almost certainly the highest spread in Liberty football history. The Flames have just two wins by more than 21 points this year (one vs. FCS) and three by six points or less. One of those three close victories was against a terrible FIU team. I think UMass can hit double digits this week. 8* Massachusetts

10* Utah State (7:00 ET): OK, this is crazy. New Mexico, who has lost 13 straight games dating back to last year, is FAVORED on the ROAD even though Utah State is off its bye. Now Utah State obviously isn’t very good either. The Aggies are 0-4 SU/ATS thus far and haven’t stayed within 19 points of anybody. But I would argue that they’ve faced the four top teams in the Mountain West. If they are to avoid a winless season, this is their best shot. The same can be said of New Mexico, but there’s just no way the Lobos should be favored by this many against anybody right now. 

New Mexico, also 0-4 SU, has come relatively close to victory twice this season. They lost 39-33 out in Hawaii, covering as 13-pt dogs. Then they only lost by 7 (27-20) to Nevada as 17-pt home underdogs. Both games saw the Lobos grab the early lead only to ultimately fall short. But then there was major regression last week in a 28-0 loss to Air Force. In one of the most stunning sequences in the history of football, Air Force fumbled on three consecutive possessions. Every time New Mexico got the ball (in AFA territory), they’d go on to miss a field goal. Remember that the Lobos aren’t playing home games this year due to COVID-19. This will essentially be their 5th road game in 5 weeks. 

As for Utah State, they got an unexpected bye last week when their game vs. Wyoming got called off. Extra prep time is not something any team should need when facing this New Mexico defense, but the Aggies will take it. After giving up 340+ yards passing each of the first three games, the Lobos then surrendered 356 on the ground to Air Force last week. This will mark the 2nd week in a row I fade New Mexico (had Air Force) as it appears bettors are being lulled into thinking the Lobos are going to get that elusive win. But I must reiterate that when a team has not won in 14 months, they probably should not be favored -- on the road no less. Lots of turmoil at Utah State (coaching change, QB dismissal), but New Mexico is still 1-21 SU in its L22 games vs. FBS opponents! 10* Utah State

10* Dallas (4:30 ET): So the Cowboys came through in a major way on Sunday, winning outright at Minnesota, 31-28. In taking them plus the 7.5 points, I specifically cited the return of QB Andy Dalton as a reason for optimism. Dalton was pretty good as he threw three touchdowns including the game winner with 1:37 left. Now I’m wondering if these ‘Boys might actually have a shot at winning the NFC East. Everybody in this horrible division has just three victories, so all that’s happened to this point is irrelevant. “How ‘bout them Cowboys?” 

Of course, this game is equally important to Washington as they could end up being in first place by week’s end. They too are off a win, 20-9 over Cincinnati, and just like Dallas it was just their second in nine games. But when looking at the Football Team’s recent performances, some perspective needs to be added. While it was a close loss (30-27) at Detroit two weeks ago, they were actually down in that game 24-3. It was a similar story in a 20-19 loss to the Giants the week prior. There, they were down 20-3 at halftime. Then Sunday vs. the Bengals they were down at the half again (9-7), only to catch a HUGE break when Cincy QB Joe Burrow went down with a season-ending knee injury. The Bengals didn’t score again after Burrow left the game. 

Now this is a rematch from last month when Washington won 25-3 at home. Again though, some perspective needs to be provided. Dalton got hurt in that game and his replacement Ben DiNucci just wasn’t ready for “primetime.” I think it’s also interesting that the line for that game was a “pick ‘em.” Obviously, based on the final score, oddsmakers were going to adjust the number for this game. But I believe Dallas still needs to be a much bigger favorite. Washington is starting Alex Smith and has trailed by double digits in 8 of its 10 games this season! It’s amazing to say, but I think the Cowboys are underrated right now. 10* Dallas

8* Detroit (12:30 ET): On Sunday, the Lions failed in their attempt to win back to back games for a second time this season. They were shutout, 20-0, by a Carolina defense that had just given up 46 points and 500+ yards the previous week. Oh yeah, the Panthers were also forced to start PJ Walker at QB, a “refugee” from the XFL! As embarrassing as that loss reads, I like Detroit’s chances of bouncing back on Thanksgiving. Relative to the lookahead line, this is a good value getting them as a home dog. 

Meanwhile, Houston is off a win, their first of the season against a team other than Jacksonville. They came from behind to beat New England 27-20 as 2.5-pt home dogs. What’s interesting here is that from a pointspread perspective, the Texans are now in the exact opposite role from last week when they saw the early money go in the Patriots’ direction. That set them up to be a solid value as a home dog. Now they are road favorites for just the second time in 2020. The first was at Jacksonville and there they failed to cover the spread, winning only 27-25 after holding off a late 2-point try. Prior to covering each of the L2 wks, the Texans were just 1-7 ATS this season. 

My own power rankings indicate that the Lions should still be favored here, despite what happened last week. They aren’t nearly as bad as they played last week. One bright spot was the defense, which held Carolina to just 7 pts in the 1st half and 17 total before a 3-yard drive resulted in a late FG. Matt Stafford and the offense are likely to turn things around this week against a Texans defense that is 31st (2nd to last) in yards allowed. The Lions have lost three games this season in which they held a double digit lead, so their record could be significantly better than it is. Houston was still outgained by New England last week and is just 7-14-2 ATS as a favorite the L3 seasons. Take the points. 8* Detroit

8* Las Vegas (8:20 ET): I get the revenge angle is in play (Chiefs lost 40-32 to the Raiders back in Week 5), but this spread is too high. The inflated number is almost certainly due to the revenge angle as oddmakers know everyone is going to want to bet the Chiefs in this spot. But you need to consider that Kansas City was “only” a 10-point favorite when they LOST to the Raiders in that first meeting. I can’t say that I’m the biggest LV fan, but they have covered five straight AFC West games.

The Chiefs are coming off a bye, yet another reason they are favored so prohibitively in this rematch. Andy Reid has typically been very good off a bye, but how many times has he been asked to lay this many (points) in a division game that takes place in primetime? Probably not too many. The Chiefs have actually been outgained in two of the last three games and that’s despite facing the likes of Denver, the Jets and Carolina. The defense gave up nearly 500 yards in the first meeting with the Raiders, not to mention five plays of 40+ yards. The offensive line is dealing with multiple injuries as well. 

One of the reasons I waited to “get down” on this game was to monitor the Raiders’ reserve/COVID-19 list. Well, yesterday they activated 7 of the 10 players from it. So I’m confident we’ll be getting them at/near full strength. This is a team that’s won three in a row, including 37-12 last week. The offense has averaged 190.7 yards rushing during the win streak (that’s a lot!) while the defense has shown some real improvement, allowing just 14.7 PPG. They forced FIVE turnovers against Denver last week. 8* Las Vegas

8* Dallas (4:25 ET): This is certainly a contrarian play as the Cowboys are 2-7 SU, not to mention 1-8 ATS. Meanwhile, Minnesota is surging. They’ve won three straight and covered six of their last seven games. But the situation here totally favors the underdog. Dallas is off its bye week. The VIkings are working on a short week after playing on MNF. This is the most points they have had to lay in any game this season and the line has DROPPED, which is telling. The only other time this season that the Vikings were favored by more than a field goal (-4 vs. Atlanta), they lost outright (here at home).

Andy Dalton is also set to return this week for the Cowboys. He alone is not enough to save this lost season, but he is a definite upgrade on what we’ve seen at QB for Dallas the last three weeks. Dalton’s return should take some of the Vikings’ defensive focus off of RB Ezekiel Elliott, which could open the run game, typically a big strength for America’s Team. Minnesota’s defense may have looked good Monday night, but it is still allowing 27.4 PPG for the year and 33.5 PPG at home! I believe Dalton can make a difference this week and am counting on a big game from Elliott as well. 

While everyone is focusing on Minnesota getting back into playoff contention, don’t forget that Dallas isn’t out of it yet either, despite their record. That’s because everybody in the NFC East is struggling this season. Currently, the Cowboys are just one game behind the first place Eagles in the win column. HC Mike McCarthy is 10-2-1 ATS off a bye and 9-4 straight up. Prior to the bye, Dallas played undefeated Pittsburgh quite tough two weeks ago. They lost by only 5 points and led going into the 4Q. They should have covered the previous week at Philadelphia as well. The defense has quietly shown some improvement too. I’m taking the points Sunday.  8* Dallas

9* South Carolina (7:30 ET): We’re getting a GREAT value on South Carolina here after their decision to fire Will Muschamp. Obviously such a move indicates the team is struggling, which they most certainly are, but it’s definitely noteworthy that my own power rankings have this game w/ Missouri rated as a tossup. I don’t think that the Tigers are good enough to be favored by this many on the road against anybody and you can look for the Gamecocks to play inspired ball following the coaching change. Take the points.

These two SEC East rivals have combined to play 12 games this season. Of those 12, only one time has either been favored and it was actually South Carolina (when they crushed Vanderbilt 41-7). So Missouri’s first time being favored in 2020 comes on the road, after a three-week hiatus (COVID) and against a team playing with nothing to lose. Mizzou has lost three games by 19 or more this season, the most recent coming at Florida (41-17) on Halloween. They haven’t played since then and rust could very well be a factor this week. 

South Carolina upset Auburn here in Columbia back on October 17th. That was their last win under Muschamp. After that it’s been three ugly losses with the defense getting torched every time. But Missouri has scored 20 points or less in four of its five games. Again, hardly an ideal candidate to be laying points on the road. South Carolina was one of the few SEC teams to play last week and did score 42 against Ole Miss w/ RB Kevin Harris going for 243 yards and five touchdowns. Anything close to that  will mean an easy cover here and possible outright upset. Missouri has given up 35 or more points in four of its five games. 9* South Carolina

10* Wisconsin (3:30 ET): Right now there is a lot of value on the 10th ranked Wisconsin. I’ve got them 4th in my own power rankings. The reason for the value is they’ve only played two games, so the pollsters are going to wait to move them up the rankings. But the Badgers have made the most of the two opportunities they’ve gotten, first destroying Illinois 45-7 and then dealing Michigan its worst home loss in more than three-quarters of a century, 49-11 last week. This team is a legit CFP contender. 

I refuse to say the same about Northwestern, even though they are 4-0 SU and ranked #19 in the country. While my own power ratings say Wisconsin is underrated right now, they have the exact opposite read on Pat Fitzgerald’s Wildcats. The reason being N’western has three one-score wins, two of which saw them get outgained. They have relied heavily on a defense that is 11th overall in yards allowed, though two weeks ago that unit was very much “bend, but don’t break” as it allowed Nebraska to get into the red zone SEVEN different times, only to give up 13 points. I look for the Wisconsin offense to make them pay this week. 

The Badgers can also play defense. They held Illinois and Michigan to an average of 218.5 YPG. Though only two games, that average would place Paul Chryst’s team #1 in the country in total defense. This is only the 6th time since 2018 that a battle of ranked teams has seen the visitors favored by a TD or more. The previous five instances have seen the road fave go a perfect 5-0 ATS. Also, favorites have gone 14-5-1 ATS in all Top 25 matchups this season. I cashed a road favorite last week in the Big 10 (Indiana) and plan on doing the same here. 10* Wisconsin

8* Rice (2:00 ET): Two teams that have felt the brunt of COVID-19 cancellations are Rice and North Texas. November is rapidly coming to a close and these two C-USA rivals have combined to play just seven games. Rice has only played twice! The Owls are 1-1 w/ a 30-6 win (over Southern Miss) the last time they took the field. But that win came all the way back on Halloween. North Texas is 2-3 SU, but hasn’t played since October 17th (!) when they drubbed Middle Tennessee 52-35 as a 3.5-point road dog. 

I had North Texas in that drubbing of Middle Tennessee. But as I said in the writeup, Middle Tennessee was as bad as any team in the country at that point of the season and did not deserve to be favored against anybody. The Southern Miss team that Rice beat for its only win is also very bad, but don’t tell that to North Texas, who lost to the Golden Eagles 41-31 back on October 3rd. The Mean Green defense has given up 31 or more points to every opponent this season, including FCS Houston Baptist. They are allowing 44.2 PPG overall, a frightening number for a team that comes in favored this week. 

Don’t expect all the off time to help North Texas here as they are 0-6 both straight up and against the spread after an off-week. With more than a month having elapsed between games, the Mean Green will be rusty here. Rice, who is 9-4 ATS its L13 road games, has put up 64 points in two games and its loss came in OT after a missed FG that was a “quadruple doink.” Their defense did not allow Southern Miss in the red zone the entire game. It was a 20-14 Owls’ win in LY’s meeting and I’ll grab the points here. 8* Rice

10* Air Force (9:30 ET): I disagree with the midweek line move here. New Mexico is not only 0-3 SU this season, they have lost 12 in a row going back to LY! The vast majority of those 12 straight losses have been by double digits. While they’ve been close each of the L2 weeks, losing by only 6 to Hawaii and by 7 to Nevada, the Lobos still have a LONG way to go to get back to respectability. The fact that QB Tevaka Tuioti missed last week’s game with a concussion and is questionable to return here does them no favors. This is also UNM’s third “true” road game in four weeks and last week’s “home game” was played in Vegas.

Air Force started its season before every other Mountain West team. Back on October 3rd, they opened the season with a 40-7 beatdown of Navy (as 6.5-pt underdogs). But, like New Mexico, the Flyboys are winless in MWC play. They lost a low-scoring game (17-6) at San Jose State and then a high-scoring game (49-30) here in Colorado Springs to Boise State. But while New Mexico is playing for a 4th consecutive week, the AFA has been off the past two weekends. Scheduled games against Army and Wyoming were cancelled due to COVID-19.

Prior to the B2B losses to open conference play, Air Force was actually on a 9-game win streak! That’s obviously a far cry from the form flashed by New Mexico over the last year. This is the game where the Falcons get their running game on track. New Mexico has yet to face an opponent that ran the ball more than 28 times. Air Force could double that number of attempts here. They lead the country in rush offense (330 YPG), averaging 5.9 yards per carry. The L2 meetings have seen the AFA offense gain 1,163 total yards against the Lobos defense. 10* Air Force

8* Syracuse (7:00 ET): Louisville isn’t as bad as its 2-6 (SU) record as they’ve outgained their opponent in three of the last four losses. The only one of those four losses where the Cardinals DIDN’T have the edge in total yards was against Notre Dame and that ended up being only a five-point loss (12-7!) in South Bend. Considering that they are finding ways to lose games they should probably win, the Cardinals probably shouldn’t be this large of a favorite against anybody. They simply turn the ball over too much (-12 TO margin) to justify this kind of price range.

Syracuse probably isn’t much better than its 1-7 SU record, but they did stay close two weeks ago against Boston College, losing only 16-13. They’ve stayed within tonight’s number against most of their opponents, save for the toughest matchups like Clemson and North Carolina. Injuries and a tough schedule have done the ‘Cuse no favors thus far, but they are coming off a bye here certainly helps. I believe they’ll be able to move the ball and score on a Louisville defense that’s giving up nearly 30 points and 400 yards per game. Freshman QB JaCobian Morgan looked decent enough in his first career start (vs. BC) and should perform better here w/ the added prep time.

After rocketing up to an 8-5 SU record last season, Louisville was a pretty obvious candidate for regression in 2020. They were just 2-10 SU two years ago and everything that went right for them LY has gone wrong this season. As alluded to above, turnover margin has been one of the biggest reasons for the decline. But they can’t fix the fact that RB Javian Hawkins has opted out to concentrate on the 2021 NFL Draft. WR Tutu Atwell, who missed the 31-17 loss to Virginia last week, may also miss tonight’s game. I just don’t see the justification for the spread being this large. L’ville is just 6-14-1 ATS its L21 ACC games. 8* Syracuse

8* Tulane (7:30 ET): Tulsa (#25) is off to a 4-1 SU start and ranked for the first time since 2010. That’s quite the cause for celebration. This is a program that won a combined NINE games the last three seasons. I’ve cashed them two different times this season. The first was plus the points against Oklahoma State in the season opener. That’s their only SU loss. The other was a 42-13 beatdown of USF. But there are two factors that have me looking to fade the Golden Hurricane this week: 1. They’ve been living quite dangerously (falling behind early) and 2. This is their shortest turnaround between games this season.

This is the second straight week Tulane faces the #25 ranked team in the country. But this time they will have to hit the road as underdogs. Still, the way the Green Wave dismantled Army last week has me looking to take the points here. The 38-12 win as 3.5-pt chalk on Saturday was Tulane’s third straight win (all by 17+ points) and fifth straight cover. Normally, I might look to fade a team on such a hot streak, but it certainly looks as if the visitors aren’t getting the proper respect this week. 

Three of Tulsa’s four wins this year have seen them rally back from 14+ point deficits. They trailed UCF by 18, East Carolina by 14 (miracle win) and then SMU by 21 (here at home) on Saturday. It’s hard to pull the proverbial “rabbit out of the hat” every week. Furthermore, the Golden Hurricane had played just twice in 41 days prior to the upset of SMU. Now they’ve got just five days in between games. The only other time this season they had to play on “normal” or short rest was the East Carolina game where they were lucky to win 34-30 and never came close to covering the 17-point spot. Because of its ranking, Tulsa may very well be overconfident entering this week. That’s a mistake against a Tulane team who led by double digits in two of its four losses. A third loss came in overtime. Taking the points is the way to go here in what should be a good game. 8* Tulane

10* Ball State (7:00 ET): A case could be made that Northern Illinois actually outplayed Buffalo in a season opening 49-30 loss. After all, they outgained the Bulls 397-357. But they were undone by a -5 turnover margin in that game. Unfortunately, there was no “explaining away” the terrible 40-10 loss the Huskies suffered last week to Central Michigan. That game saw them get held to just 224 total yards. Making the 0-2 SU/ATS start even worse is the fact both losses were in DeKalb. Now NIU is set to hit the road for the 1st time in 2020. 

Ball State is also 0-2 ATS, but they did win SU last week, defeating Eastern Michigan 38-31 in come from behind fashion. That was a stark contrast to the previous week’s result, also a 38-31 final, where they blew a 1st half lead and fell to Miami. Unlike Northern Illinois, the Cardinals have had the total yardage edge in both of their games this season. They rolled up well over 500 yards last week. They have a significant offensive edge in this matchup and I just don’t see how the underdog keeps up. 

Northern Illinois used to be the standard-bearer in the MAC. But the Huskies have fallen on hard times and should now be considered one of the weaker teams in the entire country. Meanwhile, Ball State is a program on the rise under HC Mike Neu and is going to be one of the better MAC teams this season. Something that’s even more damning for Northern Illinois’ 0-2 start is that their defense leads the country in 3rd down conversion rate, which is highly unlikely to continue. Ball State’s offense will make them pay on third down and move the ball w/ ease, thus dropping NIU to 3-14-1 ATS off a DD loss at home. 10* Ball State

10* Chicago (8:15 ET): The look ahead line for this game was Bears -2. The number quickly jumped the fence and it’s now the Vikings laying a field goal on the road. I have to say that I completely disagree with the move as I’ve still got Chicago rated as the better team. So it should be them laying, not getting, the standard three. Coming off back to back wins, Minnesota is probably feeling pretty good about its chances of getting back in the playoff mix. Especially w/ three favorable home games on deck. But they should NOT be the favorites Monday night and I’m taking the points. 

The Vikings are looking to make it a 3-0 NFC North to start November. After their bye week, they upset the Packers (in Green Bay) 28-22 as six-point dogs. Then last week was a 34-20 home win over Detroit. RB Dalvin Cook has been the driving force. While both wins were impressive, I believe we’re putting too much stock into them. The Vikes were the beneficiaries of a +3 turnover margin against the Lions. Also, have we forgotten about Kirk Cousins’ woes in primetime? I haven’t. Cousins is 0-9 SU on MNF, the most consecutive defeats for a starting QB EVER on Monday nights. 

The much maligned Bears’ offense desperately needs a breakout game and it very likely could come here against a Vikings’ defense that has already given up 30+ pts three times. Under HC Matt Nagy, Chicago has had its own success in NFC North games, going 10-3 SU and 9-4 ATS. Nagy is 4-0 (SU) vs. the Vikings. Let’s not forget about the Bears’ defense, which is giving up just 19.3 PPG at home this season. Overall, it ranks as a Top 10 unit in both scoring and yards allowed. Bank on them stacking the box vs. Cook, thus forcing Cousins to make plays, which is something he never does under the bright lights. 10* Chicago

8* San Francisco (4:25 ET): This spread has clearly been influenced by the results of last week. A banged up 49ers team didn’t look particularly good in a 34-17 Thursday night loss to the Packers. Meanwhile, the Saints went to Tampa Bay and destroyed the Buccaneers 38-3. An adjustment had to be made by the oddsmakers, but the number just seems too high now and the play is to take the points. After such a big win, this feels like it could be a bit of a “letdown” spot for the Saints. Meanwhile, the 49ers’ season is somewhat on the brink and I think we’ll see a better effort from them here compared to last week. 

The 49ers team you’ll see here hardly resembles the one that defeated the Saints in a 48-46 thriller last season. So many players are injured, the most notable being QB Jimmy Garoppolo and TE George Kittle. After being favored in each of their first five contests, this game will mark the 5th straight time that SF is getting points. They are 9-3 ATS on the road since the start of last season (3rd best) including 6-1 ATS as a dog (2nd best win percentage). You’d have to go back a long way to find the last time the Niners were getting double digits. Even with the injuries, my power rankings say this spread shouldn’t be more than a TD. 

While it’s pretty likely that the 49ers are about to suffer their first three-game losing streak since late in 2018, look for them to keep it closer than expected Sunday. Prior to clobbering the Bucs, New Orleans’ previous four wins were all by six points or fewer. Three of those were by a field goal and two in overtime. So as hot as they may seem, New Orleans is not necessarily dominating most opponents (save for last week). The Saints entered Week 9 at 5-2, but their point differential was just +9. Yeah, we underrated them last week, but there’s been an overcorrection in the marketplace here. 8* San Francisco

10* Arizona (4:05 ET): There were plenty of misleading results on the NFL scoreboard last week. Give credit to Buffalo for beating Seattle 44-34, but a) the Seahawks pass defense continues to be absolutely atrocious and b) it was a +4 turnover margin. I remain unconvinced that the Bills are as good as their 7-2 SU record. As for Arizona, they are a team I remain high on despite a 34-31 home loss to Miami last week. The Cardinals outgained the Dolphins by over 100 yards and would have won if not for a giving up an early defensive touchdown. Because of last week’s results, we are getting a tremendous value on the home team here. 

Despite losing last week, Arizona still has the best point differential (+53) in the NFC. They are an ascendent team that I believe will easily make the playoffs. Two weeks ago, they were a 10* ULTIMATE POWER release here at home against Seattle and they won 37-34 in overtime. While they’ve been anything but reliable as a favorite (three outright losses this year), this is a really short number to lay to a Bills team whose point differential is only +9 for the year. The respective records of these teams are quite misleading. My own power rankings say Arizona should be closer to a touchdown favorite here!

Over the last four weeks, only three players in the league have 225+ rushing yards with at least three rushing touchdowns. Tennessee’s Derrick Henry and Minnesota’s Dalvin Cook, two names you’d expect, are among the triumvirate. The third player is Arizona QB Kyler Murray! Last week saw Murray go over 100 yards for the first time in his young career. He’s averaging 7.1 YPC and going against a Bills defense that allows 4.6 YPC. The Cardinals have a much better pass defense than the Seahawks (have allowed 280+ yds passing just one time), so Bills QB Josh Allen is not going to repeat his 400+ yd performance from last week. I really like this play. 10* Arizona

10* Baylor (4:00 ET): For much of this year, my power rankings have indicated that Baylor has been underrated (by the oddsmakers) while Texas Tech is being overrated. Twice I’ve cashed Baylor in 2020. The first time was the opener (against Kansas), a game which they won 47-14. The second was last week in a 38-31 road loss to Iowa State where they were taking double digits. That was the Bears’ 4th consecutive defeat (Kansas is their only win), but this line “jumping the fence” seems like a strong indicator that losing streak is about to come to an end. 

Texas Tech has spurned me on two different occasions this season - against Texas (covered as 17-pt home dogs) and against West Virginia (covered as 2.5-pt underdogs). While the call on Texas was certainly bad (game went to OT), I still stand by the play on WVU, who outgained the Red Raiders by around 100 total yards. By that same standard, the Red Raiders probably feel like they got “the short end of the stick” last week vs. TCU where total yardage was pretty close to even, but they lost by 18 thanks to giving up a long TD run (by the TCU QB) late in the game (that cost them the cover). 

Texas Tech has just two wins this year, the one vs West Virginia and one vs. FCS Houston Baptist, which was the season opener and saw them allow 600 total yards. Those two wins were by a total of nine points. The win over Houston Baptist required they stop a late 2-pt try (won 35-33) and a late defensive TD was the difference in the 34-27 win over WVU. The Red Raiders’ defense is giving up 107 YPG more than Baylor’s is. The Bears’ four losses have all been by 11 points or less and to teams better than Texas Tech. They led by 2 TD’s LW in Ames and have covered 8 of their last 12 road games. 10* Baylor

8* Kentucky (12:00 ET): At first glance, the idea of laying this many points with Kentucky didn’t really intrigue me. After all, this is a team that’s scored a total of just 13 points its last two games and has struggled to move the ball all season. But they are facing a winless Vanderbilt team in Lexington this week and coming out of a bye. If ever there was a “get right” game for the Wildcats, it would be this one right here. At the start of the season, this was projected to be one of Mark Stoops’ best teams in his eight years in Lexington and my own power rankings say UK should be about a FOUR touchdown favorite! 

While the Kentucky offense - particularly the passing game - has had its fair share of struggles, there are no such issues with the defense, which actually leads the SEC in scoring (only 19.0 PPG allowed). The Wildcats’ D is giving up just 5.0 yards per play and 355.3 yards per game (3rd best in SEC). They held Georgia to just 14 points, Tennessee to 7 and Mississippi State to 2! They should have no problem stopping a Vanderbilt offense whose highest scoring game - 21 points - came in a 33 point defeat. The Commodores are averaging just 12.8 PPG this season, which is obviously last in the SEC.

Last week Vandy probably should have beaten Mississippi State (they lost 24-17), but five turnovers were costly in a game they outgained the opposition 478-204. Don’t go reading too much into that defensive effort though. It came on the heels of the Commies allowing 54 points and 641 total yards the previous week to Ole Miss. They trailed Miss State 17-0 in the 1st half and turnovers have been an issue all year in Nashville as right now Vandy is a SEC worst -8 in TO margin, having given it away at least twice in every game. Kentucky’s defense has forced 12 turnovers in the L4 games. Whoever is in at QB for the Wildcats - Wilson or Gatewood - will be able to move the ball against this lousy Commodores’ defense. Kentucky has beaten Vandy four straight times and are 10-2 ATS L12 home games. 8* Kentucky

8* Wake Forest (12:00 ET): The Demon Deacons have been kind to me on two different occasions this season, both times as an underdog. The first was the season opener vs. Clemson where they covered a very large spread. The second was facing Virginia Tech and that time they pulled off the outright upset. Having now won four straight and coming off a bye, the Deacons are once again getting points this week and I’m going to look to make it 3 for 3 with them. My power ratings comfortably have this as a one-score game. 

Last week marked the second time this season that North Carolina bounced back from a loss in impressive fashion. They crushed rival Duke, winning 56-24 as an 11.5-point favorite. But sustaining success has been a problem for the Tar Heels. Since opening 3-0, they’re just 2-2 SU the L4 games w/ losses to Florida State (as a 17-point favorite) and Virginia (as an 8-point favorite). While those two losses were both by just a field goal and on the road, none of the teams UNC has beaten this year are as good as Wake Forest. At least according to my power rankings.

This matchup is a lot more even than the odds seem to indicate. Furthermore, Wake Forest has been a lot more efficient in the red zone and takes better care of the football. Take away the game vs. NC State (where they were +4 in turnovers) and North Carolina is “in the red” when it comes to TO margin this season. Wake is not only +14 in TO margin (!), but also rested and comes in with a balanced offense averaging 41.3 points over its L4 games. North Carolina has its bye next week then plays host to Notre Dame, so they could be looking past this game. Wake Forest is too good to be anyone’s “look ahead,” so I’m taking the points. 8* Wake Forest

8* Indiana (12:00 ET): Michigan State does have a rather shocking outright win over Michigan to its credit. But Sparty has otherwise demonstrated that they are NOT a very good team in its first year post-Mark Dantonio. There’s a reason they were three touchdown underdogs against the Wolverines. The previous week (season opener) they’d lost by 11 - here at home - to Rutgers. Then last week, after the upset in Ann Arbor, the Spartans were blown out 49-7 at Iowa. Right now, I’ve got them rated as the 2nd WORST team in the Big 10 (ahead of only Illinois). 

 After years of disappointing results, it finally feels like Indiana is breaking through. The Hoosiers are off to a 3-0 start and have beaten Penn State and Michigan. While this might “feel” like an opportunity to fade them, the truth is they are just that much better than Michigan State right now and deserve to be favored on the road. I mentioned above that I’ve got MSU rated as the 2nd worst team in the Big 10. Well, IU is rated third BEST (behind only Ohio State & Wisconsin) and the pollsters are in agreement having them in the Top 10 in the country for the 1st time since 1968! 

Indiana QB Michael Penix Jr is 8-1 SU as a starter, the lone loss coming last year to Michigan State. It certainly seems as if the Hoosiers won’t be lacking for motivation Saturday in East Lansing as HC Tom Allen called this "a trophy game (Ol’ Brass Spitoon!) for us here that we have placed a high value on.” Allen has never beaten MSU in three previous tries. Michigan State’s offense is pretty lousy w/ QB Lombardi tossing THREE interceptions last week and the running game averaging just 78.3 yards (last in Big 10). My own power rankings call for a two touchdown difference in this one. 8* Indiana

10* Indianapolis (8:20 ET): The Titans currently have a one-game edge on the Colts in the AFC South. But, in my eyes, Indy is the better team. That’s built into the line for Thursday night (which is less than 3 pts), but the road dog is still the correct play here in my book. The Colts are outgaining their foes by a larger number on both a per game and per play basis this season. In fact, Tennessee is actually being outgained. If that’s not enough, Indianapolis has the better YTD point differential as well. 

Tennessee is off a win Sunday whereas Indianapolis lost. Those two results have the Titans out in front of the division, but an inspection of the respective box scores reveals just how misleading they were. Indianapolis outgained a very good Baltimore team 339-266 last week, only to lose 24-10 at home. Their outstanding defense (#1 in yards allowed) actually held the Ravens to 4.2 yards per play and before LB Darius Leonard went down, they hadn’t allowed a single point. 

As for Tennessee, they were outgained 375-228 in a 24-17 win over Chicago. While some of that was the Bears running 20 more plays and scoring two late TD’s, the Titans offense only gained 4.1 yards per play and the difference ended up being a defensive score. The Colts defense is statistically better than that of the Bears. I don’t see the Colts offense going 2 for 15 on 3rd down (as the Bears did Sunday). Tennessee has been VERY fortunate this year in going 5-1 SU in one-score games. None of those wins were over teams currently in playoff position and the one close loss (27-24 to Pittsburgh) saw them fall behind 27-7 at home. Take the points. 10* Indianapolis

10* Ball State (7:00 ET): Both of these teams suffered close losses on the road last week. You had Eastern Michigan losing 27-23 at Kent State and Ball State losing 38-31 at Miami. Eastern Michigan trailed 20-9 at the half, but rallied to take a 23-20 lead in the 4Q. But it wasn’t to be, as on the next drive the Eagles’ defense gave up what turned out to be the game-winning TD. Ball State enjoyed a much greater advantage last week (led by 11 in the 3Q) but couldn’t close the deal and unlike Eastern Michigan, the Cardinals did NOT cover the spread in their season opener, a very tough break for anyone that had them.

While those results seem pretty similar, an inspection of the box scores reveals that BSU played a whole lot better than Eastern Michigan did a week ago. The Cardinals outgained Miami 478-422 and like I said above had a DD advantage in the second half. Eastern Michigan not only trailed by DD in the 1st Half, they were outgained for the game 431-302. The Eagles’ rushing attack was virtually non-existent as it averaged less than 2.0 yards per carry. As for Ball State, they gained 169 yards on 38 carries.

Despite losing to Miami last week, I have high hopes for this Ball State squad, this week and beyond. They are a veteran team that was actually 4th in YPG differential LY in the conference. Eastern Michigan has a lot LESS returning talent this year and even though they came close last week, it was against a weaker opponent than who Ball State faced. The Cardinals gained 453 yards in last season’s 29-23 win in Ypsilanti and I think are in for another big night here. This being the 2nd of B2B road games is a clear disadvantage for Eastern Michigan. 10* Ball State

8* Bowling Green (7:30 ET): Pretty shocking to see Kent State this big of a favorite, even if the opponent is Bowling Green. The Golden Flashes have been a road favorite just one time under HC Sean Lewis (3rd year here) previous to this. It was last season against what would end up being an 0-12 Akron team. Bowling Green isn’t quite that bad and they are actually getting more points here than Akron did a season ago. Kent State has been road chalk just four times in the last six seasons as well! 

The Golden Flashes did win a home game in their season opener, 27-23 over Eastern Michigan. They did not cover the 5.5-point number as they actually trailed in the 4th quarter and did not score the go-ahead TD until there was 7:30 to go. Of course, a win was a lot better than what Bowling Green did in its season opener. They fell 38-3 at Toledo. That was a really disappointing effort to open HC Scott Loeffler’s second season. But the good news is that the Falcons were a .500 team at home last season and they are back at Perry Stadium this week.

Matt McDonald was thought to be an upgrade at QB for BG, but the Boston College transfer really struggled LW vs. Toledo. I expect him to play better this week. As an underdog, the Falcons can use all the help that they can get. A weather forecast calling for 20 MPH wind might be to their benefit. Wind or not, I just think this is too many points for Kent State to be laying right now. They had a strong finish to 2019, going 5-0 ATS L5 (including a bowl win) but all those covers came from the underdog role. Last week they showed they may struggle ATS as favorites. Take the points. 8* Bowling Green

10* Ohio (7:00 ET): This line was quickly bet up, but it’s still under four touchdowns (28 pts) and that’s still a value to me. In its season opener, Akron once again demonstrated that they’re not even close to being a competitive outfit. They lost 58-13 to Western Michigan and gave up nearly 500 total yards in the process. Remember that the Zips were 0-12 SU in 2019 and last in the country in scoring offense. Ohio was also unsuccessful in their first game, although it was a lot closer when they lost 27-20 to Central Michigan. I was a little shocked the Bobcats didn’t score an offensive TD in the 2nd half in that one. 

From 2014-17, these MAC East rivals were pretty competitive. All four meetings were decided by six points or less, three of them by a total of eight points. Ohio won three of the four and as you might ascertain they’ve since seized control of the rivalry. In 2018, they won 49-28 here in Athens. Last year it was a 52-3 rout at Infocision Stadium. Akron has now lost 12 straight MAC games and all but one has been by double digits!  They are 3-14 ATS L17 MAC games. 

Akron was w/o its starting QB and RB last week, which you could say helps explain the lopsided result. But given how bad the team was last year, I wouldn’t expect drastic improvement even if QB Nelson or RB Gest were to return. Overall, the Zips ended up starting nine players against WMU who are either freshmen or transfers, including four redshirts along the OL. Ohio’s defense gave up only 4.85 yards per play last week (were on the field for 88 plays) while Akron’s was torched for 8.43. This should end up being the Bobcats’ easiest win of 2020. 10* Ohio

10* Tampa Bay (8:20 ET): This is the Buccaneers’ time to shine. They certainly didn’t Monday night when they barely escaped with a 25-23 win over the Giants. But that can be forgiven seeing as how they had this game on the horizon, a revenge spot against one of the two teams that has beaten them this season. Despite coming up short in that Week 1 meeting in New Orleans (34-23), the Bucs actually outgained the Saints 310-271. They were undone by a -3 turnover margin and Tom Brady threw a pick six. I’ve got the Bucs rated #2 in my power rankings (behind the Chiefs) and this relatively short number is a good value. 

New Orleans has won four straight, but covered just one of their last six. All four of their victories during the current win streak have been by six points or fewer with the last three all coming by a field goal and two of those were in overtime! So they’re a bit of a “shaky” 5-2 SU. Tampa Bay is 6-2 SU, but compare their YTD point differential (+82) to that of the Saints (+9). Furthermore, since that Week 1 win over the Bucs, the Saints haven’t beaten anybody that I expect to make the playoffs. The defense is giving up 28.1 PPG.

It can’t be overstated how big of a game this is for the Bucs. They’ve lost four in a row to the Saints, but with Brady, this is clearly the best team they’ve had in awhile. I do expect them to finish as the NFC’s #1 seed. Therefore, it’s quite logical to take them in this spot as they’d be unlikely to capture the NFC South were they to get swept in the season series. Don’t put much stock in what happened Monday night as it was a clear look ahead on the road. They are better than the Saints and will prove it Sunday night. 10* Tampa Bay

9* LA Chargers (4:05 ET): The Chargers are better than their record. I feel like that’s something that could be said most seasons. Last year saw the Lightning Bolts finish 5-11 SU, but they were only outscored by EIGHT points! This year has seen a new level of frustration with a 2-5 SU start seeing FOUR losses where they blew a double digit lead! Last week was perhaps a new low as they blew a 21-point second half lead at Denver and lost 31-30. They are the 1st team in league history to lose four straight times when losing by 16+ points! 

While these blown leads will almost certainly cost them a playoff spot, the Chargers still have reason for optimism. Most of it centers around rookie QB Justin Herbert, who leads the AFC in passing yardage per game (303.3) and has thrown at least three TD passes three consecutive weeks. This week, Herbert is facing a Raiders pass defense that is #27 in the league by DVOA standards and has given up 260+ passing yards in five of seven games. Last week’s effort against Cleveland was not indicative of where this Las Vegas defense is at. They’d allowed 30+ pts five of the first six games.

I am digging my heels in the sand that the Chargers are due for a win. Three of those four blown leads came against Kansas City, New Orleans and Tampa Bay. Those are three of the best teams in the league. Las Vegas has been favored only ONE time this year (Wk 1 at Carolina) and has a WORSE YTD point differential than the Chargers. I disagree with the line move here (I’m aware of the Bosa injury). The Chargers are outgaining foes by 53 YPG, REALLY due for a division win (0-8 vs. AFC West L2 years) and I just can’t see LV winning a third straight road game. 9* LA Chargers

8* Tennessee (7:30 ET): Here’s a (small) favorite for the 3-pack, on the road no less. A big reason why I’m fading Arkansas here is that they are 5-0 ATS, a run they will not be able to continue. But it’s also a good spot for Tennessee. The Vols, on a three-game losing streak, are coming out of a bye. Two of those three losses were to Georgia and Alabama. They were #14 in the country before the losing streak began. Now they’re laying less than a field goal to who we all thought was the worst SEC West team coming into the year. 

As evident by their perfect ATS mark, Arkansas has been surprisingly competitive this season. They have wins over Miss State and Ole Miss. They probably SHOULD have beaten Auburn. Coming into 2020, the Razorbacks had not won an SEC game since 2017. Last week, they looked more like the team we are accustomed to seeing in SEC play. While they did get in through the backdoor against Texas A&M (lost 42-31 as a 14.5-pt dog), they trailed 42-17 going into the 4Q and the TD that put them “in the money” came in the final minute.

Tennessee actually led Georgia at halftime! They’ve been victimized by some poor luck/carelessness as they’ve been on the wrong end of THREE defensive TDs during their losing streak. Right now, the Volunteers are dead last in the SEC in third down conversion rate (at 26%). I do not expect that to continue. And speaking of turnovers, Arkansas was a VERY fortunate +7 in their two wins. They were actually outgained in both of those victories. Tennessee is 7-2-1 ATS L10 as a road favorite of 3 pts or less and 7-3 ATS L10 road games overall. 8* Tennessee

8* Baylor (7:00 ET): Baylor did NOT play well last week. They trailed TCU 30-0 in the first half, at home. While the Bears did rally to get within 10, you really can’t call the 33-23 loss “close.” But similarly, Iowa State’s 52-22 win over Kansas last week was not as big of a “blowout” as you might think. The Cyclones were “only” up 16 on the worst team in the Big 12 with just over five minutes remaining. Though they ended up covering the number there, ISU has NOT been reliable as a big favorite including a 2-6 ATS mark when laying 10.5 to 21 points. Baylor is 20-9-1 ATS as a double digit dog. 

With Oklahoma State losing to Texas last week, Iowa State is now tied for the conference lead. They are ranked #17 in the country. But in addition to their own woes as chalk, we have consistently seen ranked teams struggle to cover as DD favorites against unranked opponents this College Football season. The Cyclones have also failed to cover the L3 times they’ve been a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points. A number of Iowa State games have been close calls this season. Three of the six games have been decided by 7 points or less.

Baylor’s defense actually ranks 4th in the Big 12 in terms of yards allowed. The offense, despite a senior QB (Charlie Brewer), has been the issue this season. Brewer’s completion percentage is at a career-low right now, but some of that has to do with the offensive line, which is now healthy for the first time this season. Despite the 1-3 SU record, Baylor actually does have a positive scoring differential as none of their losses have been by more than 11 points. They were able to stay within 11 of Texas in Austin. The number here is even larger than it was in Austin, which is something I don’t agree with as I’ve got Texas higher in my power rankings. Take the points. 8* Baylor

8* Western Kentucky (6:00 ET): Well, I’m going to give the Hilltoppers another try this week. They are now 0-7 at the betting window (worst ATS record in the country) and 2-5 SU after LW’s 41-10 loss to #9 BYU. WKU is clearly underperforming expectations this season, but it is worth noting last week they had three 10+ play drives amount to a combined three points. That’s stunning. QB Tyrrell Pigrome is back, so I have confidence that the Hilltoppers can move the ball and in a game with a (very) low total, I’m taking the points. 

Florida Atlantic has played just three games. I faded them in the first, a 21-17 win over Charlotte where they did NOT cover the spread. Since then, the Owls have lost 20-9 at Marshall and won 24-3 over UTSA. So no FAU game has seen more than 38 total points scored! With that being the case, it is very difficult to imagine them covering the spread as this large of a favorite. This just isn’t the same team we saw under Lane Kiffin. The Owls certainly aren’t in the same class as previous WKU opponents such as UAB, Liberty, Louisville and especially BYU. 

I just have a hard time believing WKU is as bad as they have looked thus far. The fact they have played seven games and FAU has played only three is an advantage for the underdog. Again, FAU has yet to score more than 24 points in any game this season. Thus, no matter the opponent, you almost HAVE to fade with them in this kind of price range. Western Kentucky WILL improve on its almost unfathomable 29.5% third down conversion rate. The defense hasn’t been bad, all things considered. Take the points. 8* Western Kentucky

9* Nebraska (12:00 ET): So the Cornhuskers got an unexpected bye last week when their scheduled opponent (Wisconsin) got hit with a COVID 19 outbreak. That was dually beneficial, not just for the bye, but also they avoided what would have been a likely loss in Lincoln. The ‘Huskers have already lost once this year, not unexpectedly, as they went up against Ohio State in the season opener and that went about as poorly as you’d expect. But this week’s opponent isn’t Ohio State or Wisconsin. Take the points.

Northwestern is 2-0, but needed to come back from an early 17-0 deficit to win last Saturday in Iowa. The Wildcats were far more impressive the previous week, beating Maryland 43-3, which now looks even more impressive given how the Terps handled Minnesota. But something that sticks out to me about this Wildcats’ team is that they have benefited from SEVEN turnovers (by the opponents) in two games! They can’t count on receiving that many giveaways every week. It should also be pointed out that the N’western offense had just 273 total yards last week and had a horrible 2.4 yards per rush attempt. 

Even though it’s a unique and shortened season, Nebraska needs to show SOMETHING in its third year under HC Scott Frost. The team went just 4-8 and 5-7 his first two years here. They lost three games as a favorite in 2019. I like the chances of covering here as four of the last five meetings w/ Northwestern have been one score games, three of which have been by a field goal or less. Two went to overtime. Frost used two QBs against Ohio State, which will make his team difficult to prepare for. Northwestern is 1-7-1 ATS its last 9 games as a home favorite. 9* Nebraska

8* San Francisco (8:20 ET): So there’s been plenty of mid-week drama in this one, but I’m sticking with the 49ers. Yes, they are going to be without both QB Jimmy Garoppolo and TE George Kittle. But they have been playing without key performers all season and are still a very respectable 4-4 SU this season with a +35 point differential. As I stated earlier in the year, the “downgrade” from Garoppolo to backup Nick Mullens isn’t that severe. With Mullens at helm, the 49ers have won a game 36-9. Let’s also not forget that Green Bay is missing some key pieces for this one, namely at running back. I’ll be taking the points. 

As I’ve been quite clear about for a while now, I see the Packers regressing this year. They went 13-3 SU in the 2019 regular season, but were very lucky to do so. Now after last week’s 28-22 upset loss to the Vikings, they’ve lost twice in the past three weeks. I faded them against Tampa Bay in what was my top NFL pick for October! Last week against Minnesota, the defense was run over by Vikings RB Dalvin Cook. Speaking of running the ball, the Packers are really going to struggle to do so here, especially if Aaron Jones (questionable) doesn’t make it onto the field. That would make it THREE RB’s down for the Pack. 

Now San Francisco is going to be without a ton. In fact, they won’t have a single player responsible for any of the total yardage in LY’s two wins over Green Bay. But still, even against Aaron Rodgers, they shouldn’t be getting this many points at home. The offense should be able to move the ball against a GB defense that allowed 173 rush yards last week. The Packers are 0-6 ATS the L6 years in Week 9. The 49ers are 7-2 ATS L9 as an underdog. 8* San Francisco

10* Utah State (7:00 ET): Needless to say, it’s been a couple of VERY different starts to the season for these two Mountain West teams. Utah State is 0-2 SU/ATS. They’ve been outscored 80-20 and the lone TD last week came on a circus catch near the end of the half. But, as always, some context needs to be provided.  So far, the Aggies have faced Boise State and San Diego State, two of the standard bearers in this conference. I think we’re getting a REAL generous number here as they are set to visit Reno. 

Nevada is 2-0, both straight up and against the spread. But the Wolf Pack have played Wyoming and UNLV. Wyoming lost its starting QB early, yet was still able to force OT against the Wolf Pack. I tried taking a flier on UNLV hosting the Wolf Pack last Saturday night. While that ended up NOT working out (Nevada won 37-19 as a 2 TD favorite), note that was a one-score game entering the 4th quarter. Something I find fascinating for this matchup is that last year Utah State was a 21-point favorite in Logan … and covered the spread.

Granted that was w/ Jordan Love at QB, but I don’t think the odds should be shifting more than FIVE touchdowns from last season’s meeting. Utah State HC Gary Andersen really ripped his team’s 2H effort vs. San Diego State, thus we should be getting a pretty motivated performance from the dog on Thursday night. It’s a national TV game (FS1) where the Aggies don’t want to be embarrassed. Eight of the last 12 meetings between these two teams have been decided by 6 pts or less. USU has covered just one of the last five as a home favorite. 10* Utah State

8* Ohio (7:00 ET): Ohio HC Frank Solich has never won a MAC Title despite being the conference’s all-time wins leader. For the second consecutive season, the Bobcats come in as the betting favorite to win the conference. They open in Mt Pleasant against a Central Michigan team that has given them fits in the past. This non-division rivalry has seen CMU capture four in a row, three of those wins coming as underdogs. The Chippewas had an incredible bounce back in 2019, going from 1-11 SU (in ‘18) to 8-6 and an appearance in the MAC Championship. I believe they’re likely to regress in 2020 and OU gets its revenge.

The big storyline (for both teams) coming into this season opener will be at the QB position. Both are breaking in new starters at the most important position. Ohio can’t possibly replace the production of Nathan Rourke, who left as the school’s all-time leading passer and was a running threat as well. But whoever ends up being the new starter will have a lot of talent at RB and WR. Three starters also return along the offensive line. For the record, we will probably see both Kurtis Rourke (Nathan’s brother) and Armani Rogers (UNLV transfer) under center for the Bobcats on Wednesday.

Central Michigan will almost certainly be starting freshman Daniel Richardson, although Sam Houston State transfer Ty Brock could get some snaps as well. The issue here is that senior David Moore is under suspension for PED use. On the defensive side of the ball, the Chips lost a pair of corners before fall camp. They have less overall production returning than Ohio and I believe the “plexiglass principle” is in play this year for CMU. Solich will badly want to beat this team, especially after starting LY 1-3. The Bobcats’ receivers will exploit the depleted CMU secondary and move the team to 12-5 SU L17 MAC games. 8* Ohio

8* Dallas (8:20 ET): Hold your nose and grab the points here as we’re taking the Cowboys plus the points Sunday night. To be clear, I have not lost my mind. Rather, I’m very cognizant of the fact the look ahead line for this game was just +2.5. It was then adjusted after another ugly Dallas loss last week (to +7.5) and has now risen past double digits with the announcement that 3rd string QB Ben DiNucci will be starting this week. I don’t think a 2-4-1 Eagles team - that has plenty of its own problems - should be laying this many points to anybody right now. 

Consider that the Eagles were a dog of 7 pts or more three straight games before LW’s win over the Giants. That win was by just a single point and required a 4Q comeback at home. That right there should give the Cowboys hope. Philly’s two wins this year have been by a total of six points and they have a YTD point differential of -33. The Dallas defense has forced a league-low three turnovers thus far, but Eagles QB Carson Wentz is tied for a league-high 10 interceptions and has turned it over 12 times total. 

With the Jets covering last week (I had ‘em!), the Cowboys are the lone remaining winless team ATS. They are 0-7 ATS, which is the worst start to a season at the betting window since the ‘03 Raiders. They’re due for a cover here and it should come at a time when everyone is doubting them. The Eagles are 0-4 ATS as favorites this season and have won just one of those four games straight up. They are just 3-12 ATS L15 as a home favorite. Take the points. 8* Dallas

9* San Francisco (4:25 ET): As revealed in last week’s *10* ULTIMATE POWER release on Arizona, I am not as high on Seattle as the marketplace seems to be. This despite the team’s 5-1 SU record (were 5-0 going into last week). Statistically, they have the worst defense in the league as they allow the most yards per game (479.2) & it’s really not even close. Jacksonville allows the 2nd most YPG in the league and they are allowing almost 55 YPG less than Seattle! The Seahawks are particularly vulnerable against the pass as we saw last Sunday night when they allowed Kyler Murray to throw for 360 yards. 

Consider this: the Seattle defense has allowed the most passing yards EVER through the first six games of the season. They’ve allowed more total yards than all but three teams and that’s despite the fact they’ve already had their bye and a majority of teams have not! San Francisco has no such defensive issues. Despite an outlier game against Miami (where they lost 43-17), the 49ers are giving up an average of just 19.4 PPG this year. They are #5 in both scoring and total defense. I took them two weeks ago when they upset the Rams at home, 24-16, as a 3-point underdog on SNF. They are getting healthier while Seattle could be w/o its top three running backs here. 

After Jim Harbaugh made his exodus from SF, this became a pretty one-sided divisional rivalry (in Seattle’s favor). But the 49ers have won two of the last three meetings, including the one here in Seattle LY. But what’s really impressive is the fact the 49ers have covered seven straight times as an underdog, all but one of those times coming on the road where they are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS this season. Remember that virtually all of Seattle’s games end up being close and they’ve tended to be very lucky in terms of results. That luck ran out last week in the desert and I’m not concerned that this number moved several points from the lookahead as I have SF rated as the better team! 9* San Francisco

10* Miami (1:00 ET): There is a tremendous situational edge in this matchup for the Dolphins. They are coming out of a bye while the visiting Rams are on a short week. While you may recall last week’s play on Arizona found them on a short week facing a Seattle team off its bye, note the differences. Arizona was at home and GETTING points. The Rams are on the road and laying points. It’s an early start time too. Yes, the Rams do have a (recent) history of performing better than expected in these 1:00 ET starts, I don’t see that continuing this week. Both Rams losses this season have been on the road and one (at Buffalo) was an early start. 

Of course, the BIG story for this game is that Tua Tagovailoa will be making his first career start for Miami. While it’s a bit of a gamble by HC Brian Flores, the current “lay of the land” in the AFC East dictates a “go for it” mentality. The Jets are terrible, the Patriots are declining and I don’t think the Bills are as good as everyone thinks. Quietly, the Dolphins have outscored their opponents by 47 points (despite being 3-3). All three wins have been by at least 18 points. Prior to the bye, they destroyed a San Francisco team (43-17!) that the Rams lost to and then shut out the Jets 24-0. The Fins are a perfect 5-0 ATS the L5 years off their bye! 

The Rams are 5-2 SU, but four of those wins have come at the expense of the moribund NFC East. The only non-NFC East win was Monday against offensively inept Chicago. This is already their FOURTH trip into the Eastern Time Zone this season. Remember that they were down huge in Buffalo before a furious 2H rally fell short. Tua has had two weeks to prepare for his 1st start and there’s a reason Miami made him their top draft choice. He clearly has more upside than Ryan Fitzpatrick. Take the points in what is my biggest NFL play of the season! 10* Miami

8* UNLV (10:30 ET): The Rebels certainly didn’t show much in their first game under new HC Marcus Arroyo. They were soundly beaten, 34-6 by San Diego State, gaining just 186 total yards in the process. But that was one of the Mountain West’s top teams they were up against there and it was on the road. Here, they’re at home and playing their rival (battle for the “Fremont Cannon!”), who they’ve upset each of the last two seasons. This is actually the 1st game at the brand new Allegiant Stadium that will have fans. The line has moved too much. Take the points. 

Nevada’s season started with a 37-34 overtime win against Wyoming. The Wolfpack had a double digit early, but let the Cowboys back in it despite the fact they lost their starting QB. Winning close is nothing new for Nevada as they are now 9-3 SU the L2 seasons in games decided by seven points or less. That makes the fans in Reno happy, but it also means the Wolf Pack aren’t exactly an ideal candidate to be laying this many points. Two of those three close losses that they’ve suffered came at the hands of UNLV, including 34-29 as a 2 TD favorite here in Vegas two years ago. 

Last season, the Rebels pulled off a 33-30 upset in Reno, a game that went to overtime and was marred by a post-game brawl. Nevada is traditionally not a great road team as LY they faced just one team that was in a bowl away from home. They are 2-5 ATS L7 as a road favorite. While UNLV was gashed on the ground by San Diego State last week, Nevada had only 76 yds rushing in its win over Wyoming (less than 3.0 yds per carry).  The Rebels are 12-3-1 ATS following an ATS loss. 8* UNLV

8* Western Kentucky (10:15 ET): I don’t think any team has underperformed its expectations this College Football season more so than Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers are 0-6 ATS, easily the worst such mark in the country. Last week, they barely managed to beat an FCS squad, Chattanooga. While this might not exactly be a “rousing” endorsement of a side I’m going to take on Saturday against a BYU team that has clearly OVERPERFORMED its own expectations, this is a lot of points & I don’t think WKU is this bad. 

BYU is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS. This will already be the third time this season that the Cougars have been asked to lay 28 or more points at the betting window. Their lone ATS loss came in a really lethargic effort vs. UTSA three weeks ago when they only won 27-20 as 34-point chalk. Last week did see them defeat Texas State 52-14 as a 29-point favorite. But as rough as things have been for Western Kentucky so far, they are still a better team than those two aforementioned BYU opponents. I have the Hilltoppers rated several points higher than Texas State, for example.

Three of Western Kentucky’s six games, including both of their SU wins, have been decided by six points or less. They also stayed within 14 of Louisville in the season opener. I can’t imagine a team going winless ATS for an entire season, so you know that elusive first cover is coming for the team from Bowling Green. They have covered 10 of the last 14 times they’ve been a road underdog of more than three touchdowns. BYU is in a look ahead to a showdown with Boise State next week, which will be their toughest regular season game. 8* Western Kentucky

10* Charlotte (7:00 ET): While there is no denying that Duke’s all-ACC schedule has been more difficult than what Charlotte has faced thus far, I still don’t think the Blue Devils should be laying more than a touchdown in this spot - even after a bye. Under HC David Cutcliffe, Duke has been terrible as a favorite, going just 1-7 ATS when -3.5 to -10 and that includes SIX outright losses! They are a 1-5 (SU) team that turns the ball over way too much for my tastes (22 times in six games). Trust me when I say you’re going to want to take the points in this one. 

Charlotte comes in at 2-2 SU/3-1 ATS. Last week was the first non-cover of the season as they only beat UTEP by 10 (were laying 17). The 49ers have been dogs two times previous to this and (obviously) covered both times. Those games were against a pair of conference champs from last season, Appalachian State and Florida Atlantic. I had them against FAU. That was followed by a 49-21 thrashing of North Texas on the road as 3.5-point chalk where they gained over 600 total yards of offense. They didn’t move the ball nearly as well last week vs. UTEP (surprising) but fortunately for the 49ers, Duke has allowed 26+ points in every game so far.

Duke’s only win this year was against a Syracuse team that is really bad. They turned it over the same number of times in their last game (3) as Charlotte has all season. The Blue Devils are last in the ACC in turnover margin while Charlotte is 1st in that department among C-USA teams. The 49ers also lead their conference in time of possession. Not only is Duke w/o its star CB Mark Gilbert, starting center Will Taylor just had knee surgery. QB Chase Brice is completing only 55% of his attempts and has 11 interceptions. 10* Charlotte

8* Maryland (7:30 ET): Maryland played a horrendous season opener, turning it over four times and losing 43-3 at Northwestern. They’ve got to shake that off as they prepare to welcome in a Minnesota team that’s off its own blowout loss. The Golden Gophers were thinking upset last Saturday night as they hosted Michigan, but had no answers defensively in a 49-25 defeat where they gave up 35 first half points and nearly 500 total yards for the game. So there is hope for the Terps Friday night and I’ll take the points.

It’s going to be tough for Minnesota to bounce back from last week. They’ll probably still win here mind you, but the team thought it could compete with Michigan and didn’t. A short week is not the remedy to get over a disappointing loss such as that one. Yes, I remember the Gophers did win 11 games LY but they also played a very soft schedule (by Big 10 standards). They clobbered Maryland 52-10 at home, which I’m sure is remembered by the Terrapins. HC PJ Fleck usually does a good job motivating his teams, but I do not believe Minnesota will be the more motivated team Friday night. 

Going back to last year, Maryland has now lost eight in a row by an average of more than 30 PPG. That’s not good for HC Mike Locksley, whose tenure began with two wins where the offense scored 142 points! Since then, the Terps are 1-10 SU with the only win coming against Rutgers. Even though it’s just his second season here in College Park, Locksley can ill-afford a blowout loss on national television. Despite the success under Fleck, this is more points than Minnesota is accustomed to laying on the road. They were just -16 at home vs. Maryland LY. 8* Maryland

10* Colorado State (10:00 ET): Last week saw the Mountain West Conference join the College Football season, although that did not include Colorado State, whose scheduled game vs. New Mexico had to be called off due to COVID-19 concerns. The Rams are expected to be an improved outfit this year under new coach Steve Addazio, who was fired after a solid (if unspectacular) tenure at Boston College. CSU actually outgained its foes in conference play last year despite a 3-5 SU record and should improve their -11 TO margin as well. I look for Addazio to have a successful debut Thursday night. Lay the short number. 

Fresno State really nosedived last season as they won just 4 games after B2B 10+ win seasons. That resulted in Jeff Tedford stepping down as HC and being replaced by former assistant Kalen DeBoer. The Bulldogs did play last week and I didn’t exactly see a lot of reasons for optimism as they were shredded on the ground by Hawaii in a 34-19 home loss. The Bulldogs gave up 323 yds rushing (6.1 YPC!) and 552 yards total. They also turned the ball over four times in a game where they were 2.5-pt favorites. 

The line has moved in CSU’s direction for this Thursday night affair and I have to say that I AGREE with the move. The Rams won here last season, 41-31, as a 2-TD underdog and have now covered five of the last seven meetings overall. They have a senior QB in Patrick O’Brien, who should have a good season. His top receiver from a year ago (Warren Jackson) is gone, but expect Dante Wright to step up and fill those shoes. CSU had an excellent pass defense a year ago (ranked 7th nationally). Not only did Fresno State score just 19 pts last week, but both TD drives were 33 yards or less. 10* Colorado State

10* LA Rams (8:15 ET): Chicago is a very fraudulent 5-1 SU right now as they’ve twice come back from 17+ pt deficits to win in the 2nd half. All five wins have been by 7 pts or less. They were badly outgained two weeks ago on Thursday night by Tampa Bay, yet still managed to win 20-19. They averaged only 4.1 yards per play in that game. So far, the Bears have been outgained on both a per game and per play basis this season. In the four games they didn’t rally back from 17+ down, they have failed to score more than 23 points. This is a team I want to fade.

Meanwhile, the Rams are 5-1 ATS off their L6 SU losses. They lost to 49ers as a road favorite on SNF last week, a spot where I actually played against them. But they are 4-1 ATS L5 as a home favorite. Unlike the Bears, LA is outgaining teams on a per game and per play basis. Even though Chicago is carried by its defense, the Rams are giving up fewer yards and points per game. 

Only two teams in the Super Bowl era have pulled off five outright upsets in the first seven weeks of the season, which is what Chicago is vying to do here. The Bears have been outgained in 4 of their 6 games this year. Even though they've won two straight, I don't feel that QB Nick Foles has necessarily been any kind of improvement compared to Mitch Trubisky. 10* LA Rams

10* Arizona (8:25 ET): I absolutely love this play and the fact it’s been moved into the Sunday night spot makes it all the more enticing. I am nowhere near as high on the Seahawks as the market seems to be, despite Russell Wilson and company being 5-0 straight up. They have the worst defense in the league, at least in terms of yards per game allowed and they are giving up 35 more YPG passing than the next worst team. That Arizona is on a short week here while Seattle is off a bye is offset by the fact the home team is catching points. My own power rankings actually say they should be the favorite this week! Take the points. 

The Cardinals made short work of Dallas Monday night, winning that game 38-10 thanks to four Cowboys turnovers. It won’t be that easy this week, but Arizona is up for the challenge. They are 4-2 SU despite having played just two home games and one of their losses (a surprise to Detroit) was by a field goal. This will be the 1st time Arizona is getting points since their Week 1 upset of the 49ers. Though they’ve obviously seen some weak offenses to this point, the fact they are allowing just 18.7 PPG is still impressive. In fact, only Baltimore is allowing fewer points per game! 

As good as Wilson & the Seattle offense has looked, the team is being outgained on a per game basis. They have been outgained in all but one game, a 31-23 win over Miami where they were very lucky that the Dolphins kept settling for field goals. Two weeks ago against Minnesota (also on SNF), the Seahawks were outgained 449-314 and kept scoreless in the 1H by a pretty suspect defense. Arizona’s Kyler Murray has five games this season with at least one passing and one rushing TD. The Cardinals have gone 5-1-1 ATS the L7 meetings with Seattle and this is their best team during that timespan. 10* Arizona