8* NY Giants (1:00 ET): At first blush, there's really no good reason to back the Giants here. They've lost seven straight games to fall to 2-9 SU on the season. But four of those seven losses have been one-score games. Eventually, the G-Men have got to win one, right? Green Bay was humbled last Sunday night in an ugly 38-7 loss out in San Francisco. The expectation of a bounce back has turned them into a very "public side" for this week. I think it's worth a fade. Take the points. 

I played against the Packers last week, noting they were shaping up to be a "public dog." Bettors see that 8-3 SU record and think this team is better than it actually is. Flaws were apparent last week in San Francisco, particularly along the offensive line, which is dealing with injuries. But the bottom line is that the Packers aren't as good as their record. I've talked about this for. They have been outgained this season and their defense, which was once thought to be an improved unit, is actually dead last in the league in yards per play allowed (6.4). 

I thought the Giants would be a little better in 2019. The decision to bench Eli Manning in favor of rookie Daniel Jones was the correct one. What's shocking though is how RB Saquon Barkley is struggling. He's averaged just 3.5 yards per carry the L4 weeks and has not scored a TD in three straight games. Look for him to break that streak here though against the suspect Packers' defense. The Packers' offense has been held below 200 total yards in its last two road games. Look for the home dog to keep this one close in what is a very strong "anti-public fade." 8* NY Giants

10* Pittsburgh (1:00 ET): Two weeks ago, in a game that ended w/ a much publicized brawl, the Browns beat the Steelers. It was only their seventh win over Pittsburgh since returning to the league in 1999 and the just the second in 14 tries. Cleveland was a 3-point home favorite for that game. I realize the final score was 21-7, but why are they road favorites here? I suppose a three-game win streak and the fact Pittsburgh is starting Devlin Hodges at QB play a role in that. But, to me, the Browns are back to where they were at the start of the season - overvalued.

The last time Cleveland was favored in Pittsburgh was 30 years ago, Week 1 of the 1989 season and they won 51-0. That was Chuck Noll's final season! So it's been a long time since this situation presented itself. The Browns managed to sweep a three-game homestand to get back to 5-6, but last week's win was against the worst team in the league, Miami. History is simply not on Cleveland's side here. They have not swept a season series from the Steelers since 1988. Each of the last 8 times they've won the 1st meeting, they've gone 0-8 SU/ATS the second go around. They are 0-15 SU their L15 visits to Pittsburgh.

The move from Mason Rudolph to Hodges is probably for the best. There's minimal distraction w/ Rudolph on the sideline. Also, the Steelers' numbers in the passing game actually go up when Hodges is under center. The number of yards per play, per pass attempt and third down conversion rate are all better. Granted it's a small sample size, but I took Hodges in his 1st career start when the Steelers ended up beating the Chargers. QB's making their 1st or 2nd career start have gone 14-4 ATS this season. The Steelers, who are 5-1 SU L6 games, have the better defense here. In addition to missing Myles Garrett, the Browns are going to be w/o LT Greg Robinson and S Damarious Randall. Pittsburgh is only w/o center Pouncey. The Steelers are 9-3 ATS as underdogs L3 seasons. 10* Pittsburgh

8* Army (11:59 ET): Everything about this situation screams "Army!" They have to win to get bowl eligible. They are coming off a bye. Before the bye, they had easy wins over UMass and VMI. Hawaii's situation could not be any more different. They are off a huge 14-11 win over San Diego State that guaranteed them a spot in next week's Mountain West Championship Game vs. Boise State. With that lookahead, the last thing the coaching staff wants to do is spend time preparing for the unique Army offense. Even before factoring in the obvious situational edge Army has, they should not be an underdog in this game. Take the points.

Army won 21 games the previous two seasons, so 2019 has been a bit of a disappointment. All six losses this year have been by single digits, three of them by five points or less. Disappointment aside, this is such a favorable matchup. Not only because of the extra week to prepare for the long trip to Honolulu, but also because Hawaii's defense can be quite bad at stopping the run. The Warriors are bottom 10 in the country in yards per carry allowed and figure to have face the run 60+ times in this game. Earlier in the year, Hawaii faced Air Force and gave up 353 yards rushing on almost 7.0 YPC! Yikes! That ended up being a 56-26 loss.

As if the situation couldn't be less favorable for Hawaii, the forecast is calling for high winds, which will limit their passing attack. Tip your cap to the job HC Nick Rolovich has done in his two years in Honolulu. No one expected the Warriors to make it to the Mt West Champ Game this season. But the excitement of doing so works against the team this week. Keep in mind Hawaii needed a missed FG last week to preserve the win over San Diego State. The offense has scored only 35 total pts the last two games. 8* Army

8* Arizona (10:00 ET): Things couldn't have possibly gone any better for Arizona State last week as they upset Oregon 31-28 as a 2 TD underdog. The win got the Sun Devils bowl eligible while simultaneously killing any shot Oregon had of making the CFP. But that result sets up this rare spot where ASU is unlikely to be able to have the same intensity for their rivalry game as they did last week. Arizona will treat this year's edition of the "Territorial Cup" as its "bowl game" as they come in at 4-7 SU. Last year, the Wildcats needed to beat ASU to get bowl eligible but lost. They'll certainly be hungry for some payback here. Take the points.

Failing to make a bowl in B2B seasons is hardly how the faithful in Tucson envisioned the Kevin Sumlin era starting. But that's the reality here. The Wildcats have not covered since a 35-30 win at Colorado (were +2.5) back on October 5th. Since pulling that upset, they are 0-6 SU and ATS. While an outright win here seems unlikely, if the Wildcats can't show some pride, then Sumlin's stay here could be a short one. You can't keep getting blown out, week after week. Winning this rivalry game would at least be a nice way to end a disappointing season. 

While I struggle to write anything positive about Arizona here, this is more of a fade on ASU. Not only is it a difficult spot due to being off a big-time upset, but the Sun Devils have not been good as favorites. They are 0-5 ATS as chalk for Coach Herm this season including three outright losses. The split in two years under Edwards is now pretty severe. ASU is 2-8-1 ATS when favored. Getting points, they are 9-5 ATS w/ six outright wins. This is just the 6th time under Edwards that they've been favored in a Pac 12 game and they've failed to cover the last four including three outright losses this year! The Sun Devils have only had to lay more than 7.5 pts twice in 2019 and those games resulted in ATS losses vs. Sacramento State & Kent State. 8* Arizona

8* Colorado (7:30 ET): Well, Arizona was unable to get the job done last week. But you can expect more motivation from Colorado here against #6 Utah. I was impressed by the effort from Mel Tucker's team in a 20-14 upset of Washington last week where they were 2 TD home underdogs. The Buffaloes do to hit the road this week and while another upset is unlikely, it would give them bowl eligibility. Because of that, I don't see this turning into another Utah blowout. The Utes are red hot, but could be looking ahead to next week's Pac 12 Championship Game vs. Oregon. They'll win, but won't cover. 

Utah technically has not qualified for the Pac 12 Championship Game yet They need to win this game. Obviously, judging by the pointspread, winning seems like a formality. The Utes have won and covered seven straight since losing at USC on a Friday night back in September. That 7-game ATS win streak is currently the longest in the country. There is no doubt that this is an impressive team that has the credentials to make the College Football Playoff were they to win out. But even though six of their last seven wins have come by at least 25 points, I see this being "closer than the experts think." It's the biggest number the Utes have had to lay to any FBS opponent all season.

Colorado dominated the line of scrimmage in last week's upset of Washington, running for 207 yds at 5.0 YPC. They held the Huskies to just 238 total yds, including only 32 on the ground. It was the second game in a row the much maligned Buffaloes defense allowed 14 pts or less. It's not going to be that easy here, but they enticement of a bowl opportunity should keep the underdog motivated throughout. The Buffs played a couple "stinkers" at Oregon and Washington State, but three of their other four losses have been by a TD or less. Utah is entering a game w/ some real pressure for the 1st time and I think they play this one pretty "close to the vest."  They've not been a 28+ pt favorite vs. a FBS foe in the L5 seasons. 8* Colorado

10* Wisconsin (3:30 ET): This game will determine the winner of the Big 10 West and who goes on to face Ohio State in the Big 10 Championship Game. The Big 10 West was thought to be pretty wide open coming into the year, so it's not that big of a surprise to see a team like Minnesota coming from "relative obscurity" to challenge for the crown. But it also should be pointed out that the Gophers have played the easiest Big 10 schedule possible by avoiding both Ohio State & Michigan. They've been favored in almost every game, save for the loss to Iowa and a game against Penn State where they gave up over 500 yards. Wisconsin is the better team here. 

The Badgers are a team I once considered to be "top 5 worthy." Their season obviously changed w/ B2B weeks where they lost to Illinois as a 29-point favorite and then were blown out by Ohio State. After allowing just 29 pts total the first six games (FOUR shutouts!), the Badgers have given up 21 or more to the L5 opponents. Yet all but one win this year has come by at least nine points. They have outgained opponents by 173.1 YPG this season. Not afraid to lay the short number here as Wisconsin is 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS the L3 seasons as a road favorite. 

This is actually the oldest rivalry in College Football as it dates back to 1890. Minnesota snapped a 15-year losing streak last year w/ a convincing 37-15 win in Madison, a game which they came in as 11-point underdogs. I'm sure the Badgers remember and revenge will be a factor. The Golden Gophers have not won "Paul Bunyan's Axe" (trophy the teams play for) B2B years since 1993-94. This boils down to the fact that I have simply been more impressed w/ Wisconsin this year. Minnesota is still a team I'm not sure deserves to be mentioned among the top 15 nationally, even w/ their WL record. There were five different games they easily could have lost this year. 10* Wisconsin

10* Virginia (12:00 ET): While much of the College Football world will be focusing in on the big Ohio State-Michigan game this weekend and whether or not the underdog can reverse an ugly series history in that particular rivalry, the same narrative also rings true here in the Commonwealth Cup. In fact, things have been even more one-sided here, if you can believe it. Virginia has lost to Va Tech a record 15 consecutive times with many of the recent battles being close. Last year's defeat was among the most painful as UVA blew a 4Q lead and fell in OT. 

Virginia came into this season w/ its eye on winning the ACC's Coastal Division. That goal will be accomplished if they can finally beat the Hokies. Despite the dreadful series history, there is some good news here for the Cavaliers. The game is in Charlottesville where they are a perfect 6-0 SU this season, winning by an average of 20 points per game. Their offensive output jumps up to 41.2 PPG here at Scott Stadium, which is well above what the average is on the road. The Hoos have been the most consistent Coastal team in 2019 and this is the first time they have been a home dog all season.

The bad news is Virginia Tech comes in hot. The Hokies share the same records as UVA as both are 8-3 overall and 5-2 in conference. But the path Va Tech to get here is a little different. They've caught fire in the second half of the season, winning six of seven (only loss was by 1 pt @ Notre Dame) after suffering what was a humiliating 45-10 defeat to Duke in a Friday night home game. The Hokies are also on a 6-0 ATS run after starting 0-4 ATS. Because they're hot and have had Virginia's number, this number has already changed significantly from the time it opened. I keep coming back to "if not now, when?" for Virginia. My projections say they should be a 5-pt favorite here. I'll trust those numbers and the fact Va Tech has failed to cover 5 of its last 6 games w/ a line of 3 pts or less. 10* Virginia 

10* Buffalo (4:30 ET): Last year saw the Cowboys win the NFC East with a 10-6 SU record (despite only a +18 point differential). This year's team is every bit as talented, if not more so given they have a full season of Amari Cooper plus the return of TE Jason Witten. America's Team has the 4th best point differential in the league right now at +85. Yet they are stuck w/ a 6-5 SU record. If you've got a keen eye, the reason for the difference in record is easy to spot. Last year's team was a league-best 9-2 SU in games decided by 7 pts or less (lucky!). This year, they are 0-4 in such contests. Funny how those things work out!

Despite only losing by 4 pts last week, to one of the league's best teams (New England), owner Jerry Jones of course had to open up his big yap. Certainly I didn't need Jones to identify that Bill Belichick is a better coach than Jason Garrett. That's pretty well understood. Missing the playoffs may very well cost Garrett his job and unfortunately for him, that's how I see things ending up. I know they were facing an elite defense last week, but the Cowboys were held to just 9 points. They face another strong defensive team this week. 

Buffalo has certainly taken advantage of a weak schedule to get to 8-3 SU. But look at whom the Cowboys have beaten. Five of their six wins have been against the Giants (2), Redskins, Dolphins and Lions. Those teams are a collective 9-34-1 SU! So you can't penalize the Bills for their weak schedule in handicapping this matchup. I just cannot see Dallas blowing out a team that allows only 15.7 points per game. Buffalo dominated Denver last week, winning 20-3 while allowing less than 3.0 yards per play. There's been only one game all season where the Bills allowed more than 21 points. They are 3-1 ATS as underdogs, including their own cover at New England. This is just the 2nd time they've gotten more than 3.5 pts in a game this year (NE being 1st). I expect this to be a close game and all the outside distraction this week certainly doesn't help the favorite. 10* Buffalo

10* San Francisco (8:20 ET): The 49ers have certainly looked vulnerable the L3 weeks, but here they are standing at 9-1 SU coming into SNF on NBC. Those L3 games were all against division rivals that traditionally give them trouble (Arizona & Seattle). Here they'll be hosting a Green Bay team that certainly appears stronger on paper (at least compared to the Cardinals), however, when you dig a little deeper, you discover the Packers aren't nearly as dominant as their 8-2 record would seem to indicate. They've been outgained on the year and most of their wins have been nailbiters. That the Pack are coming off a bye is irrelevant to me in this situation. Lay the short number. 

The 49ers were lucky to cover, let alone win last week against Arizona. They scored the game-winning TD w/ just 31 seconds left on the clock, then picked up a Cardinals fumble on the final play and ran that in for a TD to make it a 36-26 final. For some that fumble return changed the ATS result (my apologies if you were caught on the wrong end of that one). However, let's not totally writeoff what the Niners did, okay? They outgained the Cards 442-266 for the game and had a huge edge in yards per play (6.7 vs. 4.3). Though the defense has suddenly allowed an average of 26 PPG the L3 wks, it still ranks second in both yards and points allowed for the year.

Green Bay's defense turned in one of its better efforts two weeks ago when I cashed the Under in their game vs. Carolina as my 10* Total of the Month. But they had to hold off the Panthers on the final play (inside the 10-yd line) to preserve the 24-16 victory. Something to keep an eye on here is the trenches as Green Bay can't run the ball at all on the road (82 YPG) while the Niners are averaging 159 YPG rushing at home. At home, the 49ers are +15.4 points and 152.6 yards per game. The Packers, despite being 3-1 on the road, are -123.5 YPG! This line indicates these teams are even on a neutral field, but that's simply not the case.  10* San Francisco

8* Carolina (1:00 ET): Those in Carolina that were looking to make the case that Kyle Allen was a better option at QB than Cam Newton now have a little "egg on their face" after watching Allen regress mightily the last few weeks. I was always willing to concede that Allen is better than a banged up Newton. But the notion he was better than a healthy former league MVP was somewhat laughable. The Panthers now sit at 5-5 and are big dogs this week at New Orleans. This will easily be the most points they've been catching for any game this season. Despite what I just wrote about Allen, I'm willing to take the points here as I'm not nearly as high on New Orleans as the market is.

The Saints crushed me last week by beating Tampa Bay 34-17. The Bucs were my Game of the the Year and I thought an outstanding play as a home dog. Unfortunately, they committed four turnovers - all of them as ill-timed as they were inexplicable. Total yardage in the game was basically even and the Bucs averaged more yards per play. Even w/ Drew Brees back, I still have some suspicions about a New Orleans team that has been fortunate to go 5-0 SU this season in one-score games. Four of those five wins were with Teddy Bridgewater at QB. But Brees was back when the Saints lost outright to the Falcons here at home two weeks ago, 26-9 as 14-pt chalk. 

Carolina found itself on the WRONG end of a +4 turnover margin last week against Atlanta. That and allowing a special teams TD spelled disaster for the Panthers in their own horrible home loss to the Falcons (29-3 as 4-pt chalk). But prior to last week, Carolina had suffered only one loss all year by more than eight points. New Orleans has failed to cover five of the last six times they've been a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points. An Atlanta pass rush that had previously been lackluster gave Brees and the Saints fits two weeks ago. The Panthers lead the league in sacks. As far as the Carolina offense, don't forget about Christian McCaffery, who leads the league in yards from scrimmage. 8* Carolina

10* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): I'm not ready to give up on the Buccaneers just yet, even though SIX STRAIGHT ATS losses might seem to indicate that it's time to rethink things. I haven't been on all those losses, or even most of them for that matter. But I did have the Bucs last week as my Game of the Year and that was about as frustrating a watch as I can remember. This hard-luck team just can't seem to get out of its own way. Despite losing to the Saints 34-17 last week, TB actually finished with slightly more yards for the game and outgained New Orleans on a per play basis. But FOUR turnovers - all of them as ill-timed as they were inexplicable - proved to be their undoing. 

Now it's onto Atlanta where all of a sudden the Falcons seem to be pointed in the right direction. You may recall it was two weeks ago that I took the Dirty Birds plus the points in the Big Easy and the pulled off the shocker of the year, beating the Saints 26-9 as a 14-point dog. They then made it B2B division road wins as they slammed Carolina last week 29-3 (were +4.5). After producing all of seven in the first eight games (went 1-7), the Falcons' pass rush has exploded for 11 sacks these L2 games. But it's important to check the box score a little bit more. Atlanta was just the opposite of Tampa Bay last week in that they benefited from a +4 TO margin.

The Falcons beating the Saints two weeks ago is was proof again that "anything can happen" in the NFL. So there's no reason to give up on the Bucs. They have a positive yardage differential for the season. On the injury front, the news is good w/ LB Carl Nassib set to return. Tampa Bay's defense is bad against the pass, but is #2 against the run w/ Nassib being their best stopper. Atlanta is going to be w/o RB Devonta Freeman and TE Austin Hooper this week. WR Julio Jones has also missed practice time. The L2 games aside, the Falcons have been far from a pointspread juggernaut themselves. They are 0-2 ATS as favorites this season, losing both games outright. Take the points. 10* Tampa Bay

8* Philadelphia (1:00 ET): This was originally going to the Sunday Night Game, but was flexed out in favor of Packers-49ers (which I am also playing). This Seahawks-Eagles matchup happens to be the rare instance of the public loading up on the underdog. I suppose it's fairly easy to understand why. Seattle has covered seven straight times in the road underdog role and is a perfect 3-0 outright as a road dog this season. They are also 8-2 (Philly just 5-5) and coming off a bye. Before that bye week, they handed the 49ers their first loss of the season in an upset on MNF. 

But I still see some flaws w/ Russell Wilson and company. This team is extremely fortunate to have gone 7-1 SU this year in one score games. Their only win of 2019 that was by more than a touchdown came back in Week 4 at Arizona. Five of their wins have been by 4 pts or less. Their last two wins were both overtime games. On the year, they have a point differential of only +21. The Seahawks simply do not have the statistical profile of a team you'd expect to be 8-2. Down the stretch, I'm going to act accordingly and look to fade when appropriate. This is one of those times. 

Though Lane Johnson remains in the concussion protocol, the Eagles still should be getting more respect coming into this game. They hung tough w/ New England last week here at home, even jumping out to an early 10-0 lead. Really, it's a game they could have won. Though battling some injuries, I don't believe anything is truly "wrong" w/ the Eagles offense. The defense is allowing just 18.2 PPG at home. The last three games, the Eagles have allowed just 44 points total. 8* Philadelphia 

8* Arizona (10:00 ET): You'd be hard-pressed to find two teams going in more opposite directions than these two Pac 12 South rivals. Utah saw it's impressive run continue last week w/ a 49-3 beatdown of UCLA. The Utes have now won and covered six straight since suffering their only loss of the year - on a Friday night at USC. Those six wins have come by an average of 34.1 PPG!  Clearly, this is a team worthy of its Top 10 ranking in the CFP (currently #7) and they appear to be on a collision course w/ fellow 1-loss team Oregon in the Pac 12 Championship Game. 

Speaking of Oregon, Arizona lost to them last week by score of 34-6. That leaves the Wildcats on the cusp of missing out on a bowl for a second straight season, hardly the way Kevin Sumlin envisioned his Tucson tenure starting. They are currently 4-6 SU and would need to win the next two games (at Arizona St next week) just to be bowl eligible. Given the pointspread in this game, the likelihood of an outright win is rather minute. But the pointspread is called "the great equalizer" for a reason. I see a desperate home team getting a lot of points and like the situation. 

I realize Arizona has failed to cover five in a row. But coupled w/ Utah's six-game ATS run, this game just feels like it's going to be tighter than expected. Getting blown out again this week would be a severe blow to the Sumlin regime, which has already seen midseason turnover on the staff. It's worth noting the Utes do give up 19.2 PPG on the road (about 8.0 more than season average) and while they only allowed 3 pts last week, UCLA certainly moved the ball on them. Not that they would have won, but five Bruins turnovers were huge in that game, especially since one was returned for a TD and another occurred at the Utah goal line. UCLA also threw an INT in Utah territory and missed a FG. When it came to covering the spread, those plays were the difference. Hopefully, Arizona plays a clean game. If they do, look for them to cover. 8* Arizona

10* Arizona State (7:30 ET): Oregon is #6 in the latest CFP ranking and may actually have a path to the playoff were there to be some late-season chaos in the SEC. But of course, the Ducks must handle their own business between now and Selection Sunday. They've already clinched the Pac 12 North and a likely showdown w/ fellow 1-loss team Utah looms in the Conference Championship Game. It's ironic that the SEC holds Oregon's fate because the Ducks' lone loss came in the season opener vs. Auburn, a game which they led for all but nine seconds. 

Arizona State is just trying to get bowl eligible. This will be the fifth try for Herm Edwards team, which enters in on a four-game losing streak. Were they to lose again this week, then the Sun Devils would need to win next week's Territorial Cup against Arizona for that elusive sixth victory. They'd obviously like to avoid that as there's an ever-so-slight chance the Wildcats could also enter that game needed a win for bowl eligibility. I like this spot for Coach Herm as he is 8-5 ATS as a dog since returning to the College game w/ six outright wins. The three times he's been a DD dog (2-1 ATS, one SU win), his defense has allowed just 55 total pts. Going back to before Edwards got here, ASU is 9-2 ATS the L11 times it has been a DD dog, including SIX outright wins. 

Furthermore, Oregon has not had the most pleasant experiences when visiting The Grand Canyon State. They've lost three of the past four times playing either Arizona or Arizona State and were favored in all three losses. That includes their previous visit to Tempe (2017) where they were -15 and lost 37-35. Not saying the Ducks lose this one, but it's a lot of weight to lay. They were pretty fortunate to beat Washington and Washington State (both wins by 4 pts or less). Three of ASU's five losses have been by five points or less and only one (Utah) by more than 10. Sun Devils QB Jayden Daniels has still looked good during the losing skid, save for that Utah game, completing 69% of his passes w/ a 9-0 TD-INT ratio in those other three games. ASU should score enough to at least cover here. 10* Arizona State

10* Missouri (7:30 ET): Well, Mizzou has definitely done a good job of letting us down the last two weeks. One of the two losses was somewhat understandable as they were stuck w/ a backup QB against Georgia. But after teasing his return for that game and not delivering, Kelly Bryant did return last week vs. Florida and it shockingly meant little as the Tigers were held to only six points in a 4th straight loss. The first three losses were all on the road. Now the Tigers are in the position of still needing a win just to become bowl eligible. I think they'll get it on Senior Night. Lay the short number here. 

Like Missouri, Tennessee comes into this game needing one more win for bowl eligibility. Same as the Tigers, the Vols are going to be favored next week against a last place conference foe. So, as far as the postseason goes, both teams remain in fine shape. But the difference is right now UT seems to have the "momentum" (hate that word!) after three straight wins. The Volunteers are 5-0 ATS the L5 games and 4-1 SU w/ the only loss coming against Alabama. Still, I think it's important to look at the whole picture and not just a small sample size. Missouri was once ranked and has been favored in all but two games. Tennessee hasn't sniffed the Top 25 and has been a dog in every SEC game this season! Things are due to turn for both teams. 

After scoring 31+ in each of the first six games, Missouri has scored only 27 pts total its last four games. Not to keep using that same word, but I cannot stress just how "shocking" this freefall truly is. Good for them then that Tennessee has averaged just 11.0 points and 255.3 yards per game on the road this season. The Tigers' defense is allowing just 13.5 PPG here in Columbia. So the Volunteers aren't going to score much. Not to make excuses, but LW's game vs. Florida swung on a couple bad calls that went against Mizzou. It was just a 6-3 game at halftime. They won't be falling for Tennessee coach Jeremy Pruitt being so "coy" with his QB situation (Jarrett Guarantano is getting the bulk of the snaps). 10* Missouri 

8* NC State (8:00 ET): When Georgia Tech was initially bet up for this Thursday night matchup, I didn't understand the line move at all. NC State, for all their issues right now, still has a chance at becoming bowl eligible (if they were to win out). As injury-laden as the Wolfpack might be right now, their issues don't run as deep as those for Ga Tech, who is experiencing the expected growing pains in moving from the triple option to a more "pro-style" offense. Last week's 45-0 loss to Virginia Tech shows the Yellow Jackets still have a ways to go. Take the underdog here. 

Now NC State has lost four in row themselves - both SU and ATS. But a win here would potentially set up a game w/ North Carolina next week where the winner becomes bowl eligible and the loser stays home for the postseason. The game will take place in Raleigh. While November has been ugly so far, let's note that the Wolfpack did outgain Louisville last week in a 34-20 loss, 377-326. They led at halftime. But their undoing was a -3 turnover margin. Incredibly, NC State's defense has not forced a turnover since a win over Ball State on Sept 22nd! That can't continue. Georgia Tech has been pretty generous in giving the ball away this season (1.7 turnovers per game), so look for the Wolfpack's turnover-less streak to end here. That'll be key to victory. 

Georgia Tech is just 2-8 and has nothing left to play for this season. Their offense is averaging just 16.5 PPG and they got steamrolled last week here at home, 45-0. Virginia Tech outgained them 451-132 in what was a major step back for HC Geoff Collins' first year in Atlanta. While the Yellow Jackets have typically owned this ACC rivalry (12-3 SU L15), those were better teams they were putting on the field. This team is last in the country in red zone efficiency. NC State has won five straight non-division ACC contests and the motivation of becoming bowl eligible is the difference in this one. Georgia Tech has been favored only one time this year vs. a FBS opponent. 8* NC State

8* Cincinnati (4:25 ET): Yes, I'm backing Cincinnati this week, the same team that just got beat 49-13 last week and is now 0-9 SU on the season. Going back to the end of last season, the Bengals have lost their last 11 regular season games. There is some merit in taking this team in this spot, but make no mistake about it - this play is more about fading the Raiders, who are laying double digits. Yes, the Raiders are laying double digits to an actual NFL team. That's happened just one time since Week 2 of the 2003 season! Obviously, you should take the points here. 

Things escalated quickly for the Bengals last week against Baltimore as they basically let Lamar Jackson run wild. However, there were some fluke things that happened along the way that contributed to the game getting so out of hand. QB Ryan Finley, making his first career NFL start, had two turnovers returned for touchdowns. Turnovers aside, I actually thought Finley didn't play all that poorly. The Bengals weren't outgained that severely and actually ended up w/ one more first down than the Ravens. All the big plays went Baltimore's way, but that's not who Cincy is facing this week. Instead, they are facing a team that has yet to win a game by more than eight points in 2019. 

Somehow, someway, Jon Gruden has constructed a playoff contender out in Oakland. What a way to go out as the franchise is set to move to Las Vegas next season. But even though they are playoff contenders, the Raiders have still been outscored by 32 points, a worse margin than the 3-6 Broncos. They've not only been outscored, but also outgained this year. Last Thursday vs. the Chargers, they won largely because of a +3 turnover margin, one of them an INT that was returned for a TD. They finished w/ eight fewer first downs than the Chargers. Over the L3 seasons, the Raiders are not only 0-3 ATS when coming off B2B SU wins, they are 0-3 SU as well. Add it up and this is one of the weakest DD favorites in recent memory. 8* Cincinnati

10* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): When I chose Atlanta as our top NFL side for last week, admittedly there wasn't much belief that the Falcons could win straight up. After all, they were two touchdown underdogs to a Saints team that hadn't lost since Week 2. But win straight up is precisely what the Dirty Birds did. The most shocking thing of all is just how dominant a SU victory it ended up being. A previously non-existent pass rush showed up in a major way for Atlanta w/ 6 sacks and 11 QB hits and they led pretty much from start to finish in what ended up being a 26-9 final. After taking a loss like that, the Saints will be expected to bounce back this week. I'm here to tell you "not so fast." In fact, you should once again take the points against them. 

There are some real issues w/ this Saints' offense right now. In nine games this season, they have scored a grand total of 25 first quarter points. Sunday marked the 4th game this season the offense failed to score a TD in the first three quarters. That's some pretty shocking stuff. Furthermore, despite having a 7-2 SU record, this has been far from a dominant team. Five of the Saints' seven victories this year have been by 7 pts or less. They only have a +22 YTD point differential and are only outscoring opponent by 2.5 PPG. This week will actually mark the 1st time all season that New Orleans has been a road favorite!

Conversely, Tampa Bay is a team that's played much better than its 3-6 SU record would seem to suggest. They have actually outgained their opponents over the course of the year. Looking at their six losses, four have been by 7 pts or less. One was in New Orleans, 31-24, back in Week 5. That was the second of B2B road games for the Bucs, who were coming off a shocking 55-40 drubbing of the Rams in LA. We know this team can score as LW's 30-27 win over Arizona marked the 5th time this season TB has scored 30+ pts. That's the same number as the Saints. The Bucs are only being outscored by 2.1 PPG this season. Being able to finally win a close game last week I think will give the Bucs some much needed confidence going into this game. Keep in mind that this game is outdoors where the Saints traditionally don't fare as well. After six straight ATS losses, it's time for the Bucs to finish "in the money" and I give them a great shot at the outright upset here. 10* Tampa Bay

10* UCLA (8:00 ET): Since suffering a Friday night loss at USC back in September, Utah has looked like one of the best teams in the entire country. They've gone 5-0 SU and ATS, winning by an average of 25.6 points per game. But I'll call for that streak to end this week (at least the ATS one) as they play host to a UCLA team that has clearly improved in Chip Kelly's second year at Westwood. If you remember, I was on the USC upset of Utah. While the Utes arguably outplayed the Trojans that night, it was still a loss. Here, it's a lot of points to lay in what could be a flat spot.

UCLA has won three straight, all by double digits, and could actually move into a 1st place tie w/ the Utes were they to pull the outright upset Saturday night. Like Utah, they are coming off a bye. I actually think that favors the dog in this situation. While an outright upset is admittedly unlikely here, the Bruins are definitely much better equipped to face the Utes than they've been in recent years. Their offense has run for 200+ yards in five straight games, so it will be interesting to see if Utah's top ranked run defense can slow that attack down. As dominant as Utah's winning streak looks, they actually trailed Washington by double digits two weeks ago and were still losing entering the 4th quarter.

UCLA has lost three in a row to Utah, the last two each coming by 31 points. I'm sure that will be on the minds of the coaching staff and players as they take the field at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Bowl eligibility is also hanging in the balance for the Bruins. To get there, they've still got to win two more games. They'll be favored to beat Cal in the regular season finale at home. But they'll still need to win either here or next week against rival USC. Bottom line is I expect a strong effort from the Bruins here. They have covered four of six games as an underdog this year, winning three of them outright. Three of the past five games, the Bruins' defense has allowed 20 points or less and the last game saw them hold Colorado to a season-low 14. Take the points. 10* UCLA

10* Air Force (7:00 ET): Air Force got an unexpected bye last week due to the tragic death of a New Mexico player. Originally, this week was set to conclude a brutal stretch of 10 games in 10 weeks for the Flyboys and be their sixth road trip during that time. So the bye, while coming under the worst of circumstances, probably couldn't have come at a better time. Colorado State is also off a bye, their second in four weeks. The surprising Rams have won three in a row and covered five of their last six, but they are not a team I happen to believe in. I'm going to lay the points.

After four straight 7-6 seasons under Mike Bobo, Colorado State fell to 3-9 SU last year. They expected improvement in Fort Collins this year, but things did not look good early w/ a 1-5 SU start that included a 21-point loss to a Colorado team that Air Force beat on the road. Despite winning their last three games, let's not lose sight of the fact CSU has won only one game all year in which it was an underdog. That was an upset of Fresno State three weeks ago. The Rams have still been outscored on the year and a defense which has not been able to stop the AFA triple option in the past still remains a liability. 

After going 5-7 SU each of the last two years, Air Force has also improved in 2019. Only they've looked a lot more impressive in doing so. They've won four straight to get to 7-2 and have outscored opponents by 77 points during the win streak. I've had my finger on the pulse, taking them as a short favorite against Utah State (won 31-7) and then fading them as 16-pt chalk against Army (only won 17-13). Colorado State is clearly a much more favorable matchup than Army as the Falcons have beaten the Rams 12 of the last 15 tries, including each of the last three years where they've averaged 430.3 yards rushing per game! As alluded to above, CSU's run defense still isn't any good as they've still allowed 183.7 YPG over land during their 3-game win streak. On the other side of the ledger, the AFA defense ranks 9th nationally at stopping the run (97 YPG allowed) and Colorado State lost its leading rusher to a suspension. 10* Air Force

8* Missouri (12:00 ET): QB Kelly Bryant is set to return this week and that changes the whole dynamic for a Tigers team that has lost three in a row. All three of those losses, including 27-0 to Georgia last week, have been on the road. Clearly, without Bryant last week, they could get nothing going against one of the nation's top defenses. But now they are back in Columbia where they are a perfect 5-0 SU this season and have won every game by double digits! I'm not ready to give up on this team as last week was actually the 1st time all year that they were getting points! 

Florida has admittedly looked impressive this year as they are 8-2 SU (only losses are to LSU & Georgia). Coming off their own loss to Georgia (24-17), the Gators bounced back in a major way last week by shutting out Vandy 56-0. That was a game where I had the Over and the Gators did all the work themselves in punching me a winning ticket. But they were only up 14-0 at halftime before exploding for 28-point 3Q that included a defensive TD. Coming into the year, I did NOT expect this Gators team to match LY's 10-win total. I think the final two regular season games are going to be tricky. Unless UGA loses its next two (unlikely), then the Gators have nothing to play for (can't win division). That makes them prime fade material in my opinion.

Bryant and the home field edge are both huge factors in handicapping this game, but there is even more evidence to support a play on the underdog this week. Missouri has beaten Florida the L2 years by a combined 50 points and has won four of the six games as SEC rivals. Also, the Tigers have the SEC's #1 pass defense (147.7 YPG allowed) and that's key going against one-dimensional Florida offense that can't really run the ball. With Bryant in at QB, this team was once 5-1 and ranked in the Top 25. Really, every Tigers loss this year (besides last week) is pretty head-scratching. Take the points. 8* Missouri

10* Pittsburgh (8:20 ET): The Browns' 19-16 win over the Bills last week, ugly as it was, has some convinced that this team has a viable path to the playoffs. Such a line of thinking goes back to just how overrated this team was at the start of the season. Take it from someone who cashed a winning ticket on the Browns (-2.5) last week. This team is NOT going to the playoffs. Not unless something serious changes as this team makes far too many mistakes, bogs down in the red zone at an incredible rate and is just plain poorly coached. I'm taking the points in the Thursday night AFC North matchup.

Now Pittsburgh is a team that I believe has a viable track to getting a Wild Card in the depth-shy AFC. Left for dead because of the Ben Roethlisberger injury, the Steelers have all of a sudden won four straight. Before the season, this was my pick to win the division. That's likely out the window now, but at 5-4, making the playoffs is not. Other than New England, no team has been able to beat the Steelers by more than four points this year. Their four losses are to the Patriots, Seahawks, 49ers and Ravens. Those teams are a combined 31-6 SU right now! With Big Ben out, the "Steel Curtain" is back as the defense has given up just 67 pts during the 4-game win streak. 

The Browns have topped 23 points in just two games all year. Baker Mayfield has regressed badly and actually sports a negative TD-INT ratio. Let's not forget how Pittsburgh has dominated this AFC North rivalry like maybe no other division rivalry in the sport. Since Cleveland returned to the league in 1999, they have gone just 6-34-1 SU against the Black & Gold. During that time, the Browns have been favored only THREE times and lost two of them outright. I'm not going to say Steelers QB Mason Rudolph has been great, but the defense certainly has been. Last week against the Rams, they didn't allow an offensive TD. The better team is getting points here and has a sizable coaching edge here to boot. Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers have excelled as underdogs, including a 9-2 ATS record the L3 seasons. 10* Pittsburgh

10* Kent State (7:00 ET): Kent State has only been bowling twice in program history w/ the last time being 2012 (other was 1972!). In order to snap that drought, this year's Golden Flashes (3-6 SU) are going to need to win out. That may seem like a tall mountain to climb, but looking at the schedule, it's actually doable. Up first is this Thursday night home game w/ Buffalo. At 5-4, the Bulls need just one more win to gain bowl eligibility and they've got the home finale vs. lowly Bowling Green in their back pocket. I'm not entirely sure why the line has shot up so much for this matchup and will take the points! 

You'll probably hear that Buffalo has "momentum" coming into this game, but regular readers know my feeling that "momentum" is a dirty word. The Bulls have won three straight and are off B2B 43-point efforts, but they benefited from five Central Michigan turnovers in one of them and had a gigantic quarter against Eastern Michigan in their last game. The other win came again 0-10 Akron. This will somewhat shockingly be the 4th time in MAC play that the Bulls are road favorites. But the Akron game was the only time laying more than 1.5. While they were able to get the job vs. Eastern Michigan 12 days ago, Buffalo lost outright at Miami. 

Kent State has only played three of its nine games here at home. They are averaging 34.7 PPG at Dix Stadium, which is well above their season average on the road (just 20.0 PPG!) The offense is led by dual threat QB Dustin Crum. Not only does Crum's 67.9 completion percentage rank among the top 15 in the country, he also leads the team in rushing. Leading receiver Isaiah McKoy missed the Toledo game, but is expected back here. While the Golden Flashes have lost three in a row, every loss was by 7 pts or less and those were to three of the top teams in the conference. With their bowl eligibility hanging in the balance, the Flashes won't go down quietly. 10* Kent State

10* Atlanta (1:00 ET): The 2019 season couldn't be going more differently for these two NFC South rivals. The Saints, despite Drew Brees missing five games, are on pace for a franchise record 14 wins. They also have the league's longest active ATS win streak at 6 games. Atlanta seems to be inching towards the end of the Dan Quinn era, that is unless things change drastically in the second half of the season. They're 1-7 SU overall and 0-6 SU, 0-5-1 ATS the L6 games. But while recent history may not be on their side, the Falcons are a desperate, double-digit division dog this week. That's a spot we like, especially with Matt Ryan coming back. 

While Atlanta has been the worst bet in the NFL over the L2 seasons (7-17 ATS) w/ a ton of outright losses, they are not a DD dog often. In fact, it's happened only five times in the Matt Ryan era and just once under Quinn. While the Falcons are 0-5 straight up in those games, they've gone 4-1 ATS. The spread for each of Atlanta's first seven games was always four points or less. Were the Falcons to get blown out here, off their bye, things would be REAL ugly for Quinn. Can't see that happening. Ryan being back is huge. Against Seattle two weeks ago, even w/o Ryan, the Falcons outgained the Seahawks 510-322, but lost due to being -3 in turnovers. This team is better than its won-loss record. They're outgaining opponents on both a per play and per game basis! 

New Orleans is 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS. They won every start w/ Teddy Bridgewater starting in place of Brees, but were clearly undervalued in those games. Despite their dominant record, the Saints have five wins by a TD or less. In Brees' return, they did beat the Cardinals 31-9, but that was also a one possession game going into the 4th quarter. They call the pointspread "the great equalizer" for a reason and eventually luck and those ATS results are going to even out. Love the points here. 10* Atlanta

8* Cleveland (1:00 ET): There may be some head-scratching over the fact a 2-6 team (Cleveland) is favored over a 6-2 team (Buffalo), but if history is any indication, then the Browns are in good shape here. It's not unprecedented to see a line like this, but it is rare. This is only the 7th time in the L25 seasons that this situation presents itself, that being a team w/ a .250 win percentage or lower being favored over a team w/ a .750 win percentage in Week 6 or later. But when it happens, the favorite is a perfect 6-0 ATS! It's only the third time it's happened in Week 10 or later in the Super Bowl era and the favorite is 2-0 ATS previously. Lay the points. 

Buffalo is 6-2 SU and in good position to make the playoffs. But they've certainly taken advantage of a pretty easy schedule. Not only are the Bills the only team besides the Patriots to get to face the Jets & Dolphins twice (2-0 SU so far), they've also gotten to play the Giants, Redskins and Bengals, who are a collective 3-23 SU. Their six wins this year have come against teams that are a combined 9-42 straight up. 

Cleveland was the "trendy" team coming into the 2019 season, but we see how that's gone. In retrospect, Freddie Kitchens was probably the wrong hire as HC and Baker Mayfield is regressing. But things may not be as bad for the Browns as you think. RB Kareem Hunt is finally able to return from an 8-game suspension. It's not like the offense lacks talent. Just last week, they ran 30 more plays than Denver and possessed the ball for 11 more minutes. But six trips in the red zone resulted in only 19 pts and they lost by five. They are now 0-3 SU in games decided by 7 pts or less. They are also 0-3 SU/ATS at home. That has to change. The schedule so far has been tough. While the Bills have gotten to play all those weak teams, the Browns have had to face the Rams, 49ers and Seahawks, among others. This is just the 2nd home game in six weeks. Home teams in games where the total is 41 pts or less have gone 14-6 ATS this season and 107-85-6 ATS the L5 seasons. It's now or never for the Browns. 8* Cleveland

8* Tennessee (1:00 ET): With Patrick Mahomes set to return, this number has skyrocketed in the Chiefs' direction. The thing is, I thought the original number would have been appropriate even w/ Mahomes factored into the equation. HC Andy Reid has struggled in his career vs. the Titans, going 1-7 SU against them, including 0-3 SU/ATS w/ the Chiefs and all of those losses came as a favorite. There was a playoff loss two years ago that really stung. But right now Tennessee isn't even thinking playoffs. They are a desperate home dog off a tough loss LW at Carolina. Typically, this is a stronger team at home and under Mike Vrabel, they are 5-1 ATS/4-2 as dogs of 4+ pts. Take the points. 

There are two "old school" characteristics Tennessee should lean on here in order to pull the upset. One is their defense. They only give up 18.3 PPG, which is 7th best in the league. The other is run the ball effectively, which they should be able to do. I didn't think RB Derrick Henry got the ball enough, especially in the 1H, LW vs. Carolina. Henry averages 18.2 touches per game, which is important to note because RB's who get at least 14 carries against this Chiefs' defense average 109.4 YPG. The Chiefs' defense has allowed 180+ yards rushing in four different games this year. Also, the Titans offense is averaging about a full yard per play more w/ Ryan Tannehill at QB than they were w/ Marcus Mariota. 

One has to wonder how Mahomes will play in his first game back from a knee injury. Prior to the injury, the Chiefs' offense had actually been regressing. They'd been held under 26 pts in B2B games, both losses, something that had previous never happened w/ Mahomes as the starter. All but one of KC's last seven games has been decided by one score. They just seem like a real "public side" here caught laying too many points on the road. 8* Tennessee

8* Boise State (10:15 ET): Boise State is no stranger to occupying this space. The Broncos were last involved in a LAST CHANCE POWER-DRIVE selection when I faded them three weeks ago at BYU. They lost that game outright, as 7-point favorites, 28-25. It's their only SU loss this season. This week, I'll be taking the Broncos and it has a lot to do with whom they are facing. Wyoming has been a previous target due to the fact they've been winning games while consistently being outplayed. The last time I got involved in a Wyoming game was four weeks ago w/ a LAST CHANCE POWER-DRIVE selection on San Diego State. That's one of two games the Cowboys have lost this year.

The big story here is Wyoming lost its starting QB last week. Sean Chambers made his 1st start midway through last season and really turned the team around. Chambers went 10-2 SU as the starter, but is now done for the season after injuring his knee LW vs. Nevada. Backup Tyler Vander Waal was hardly effective in completing only 3 of 10 pass attempts. The Cowboys were lucky they didn't need Vander Waal to do much as they were already up 24-3 when he came into the game. Boise State knows all too well the importance of having your starting QB on the field. Hank Bachmeier missed that BYU game, but returned last week and led the Broncos' offense to a 52-point effort against San Jose State.

The Broncos' defense did give up 42 points and almost 500 total yards last week, but that was on the road. Wyoming, with a backup QB making his first career start, is not a threat. That this game is on the "Blue Turf" is very significant. Wyoming has been outgained by nearly 100 YPG on the road this year (outgained in all three games) and averages only 22.0 PPG. That was w/ Chambers at QB. Boise State is 12-1 all-time vs. Wyoming (lone loss was in Laramie) w/ the avg MOV being 24.4 PPG. The Broncos are 17-1 SU the L18 MWC home games. My numbers say this number would be too low even if Chambers was the starter for Wyoming! 8* Boise State

10* Missouri (7:00 ET): While Tigers QB Kelly Bryant remains a "game-time decision" here, this is a play regardless. Admittedly, Mizzou has been a very inconsistent team this year. They've suffered some real head-scratching losses this year, including the last 2 weeks at Vanderbilt and Kentucky. They also lost the season opener at Wyoming. But it is certainly worth mentioning that there was a time when this was considered a Top 20 team in the country. B2B losses have sent them tumbling and while they now have to face to #6 Georgia, this will actually be the 1st time all season that the Tigers have been underdogs! Take the points w/ a dangerous team. 

We certainly know that Georgia isn't immune to a shocking home loss. It was four weeks ago we faded them vs. South Carolina and they got beat 20-17 as 20.5-pt underdogs (in overtime). Since that time, they've bounced back to shutout Kentucky 21-0 and then last week win the big rivalry game over Florida (24-17). As mentioned earlier, that has the Dawgs ranked #6 in the initial CFP poll and pundits are back to talking about a path to the top four. Sounds like it could be an ideal time for another letdown. Not only is UGA coming off a win over Florida, but they have Auburn (a much bigger game) and Texas A&M on deck. This looks like the proverbial "sandwich spot" for the favorite.

I go back to something I talked about in the analysis for South Carolina-Georgia. UGA is a somewhat offensively challenged team. They've scored 24 or fewer points in four of their last five games. So it's problematic for them covering a spread this large. Not only has Missouri not been a dog previous to this, they'd actually been favored to win every game by least 9.5 points! The Tigers have the top pass defense in the entire SEC. It does sound like Bryant will play. While Missouri has only beaten Georgia once since becoming SEC rivals, they've covered five of the seven meetings, including the last four. So they have a history of playing the Dawgs tough. That continues Saturday. 10* Missouri

10* South Florida (8:00 ET): The home team has won all five meetings between these schools and there has been a history of upsets. The first three meetings saw an outright win by the home dog every time. The last two years, the home team entered favored. Last year it was USF going to Philly on a season-worst three-game losing streak and losing 27-17. But they covered as a 13-point dog thanks to taking a 17-0 lead going into halftime. The last time Temple came to Tampa is the ONLY time in the history of the series where the favorite covered. USF won 43-7 w/ a 408-85 edge in total yards. I bring all this up because Temple remains a shaky road team in 2019. While it probably won't get as ugly as it did two years ago here (also a Thurs night game!), take the Bulls.

Temple has pulled a few notable upsets this season. The Owls (+5.5) beating Maryland 20-17 back in Week 3 seemed impressive at the time, but the Terrapins have gone from chic to lousy. The Owls did beat Memphis 30-28 as 4-pt home dogs, but that was thanks to four Tigers' turnovers more than anything else. Temple was outgained in that game. Since then, they've been exposed w/ ugly losses to SMU (45-21) and UCF (63-21) w/ the defense giving up 600+ yards in both games. Temple's lone road win of the season came against East Carolina, by a score of 27-17, but they did not cover as 12-pt chalk. They are now 0-3 ATS in all road games.

USF has taken some lumps this year, but has battled back to win four of its last six overall. They had won five straight coming off a regular season bye before running into SMU earlier in this season. The Bulls will get a chance to play spoiler down the stretch w/ remaining games against Cincinnati, Memphis and UCF. Including this one, they'll have to win twice to become bowl eligible. USF has actually performed slightly better than Temple has on a per play basis this season and the Owls' shaky play on the road is cause for concern. The Owls have just ONE win this season by more than 3 pts against a FBS opponent. USF's defense is #1 in the AAC against the pass and they have forced the 2nd most turnovers in the COUNTRY. Temple has the 2nd most TO's in the conference this year. 10* South Florida

10* Ohio (8:00 ET): This Wednesday night matchup will go a long way in determining who wins the MAC East this year. It's a division Ohio won as recently as 2016, but they've haven't won a Conference Championship since 1968! Miami shares the same 3-1 SU record in MAC games this year and is now 19-7 SU their L26 conference games overall. This is a rivalry game ("Battle for the Bricks"), one that I personally am quite familiar with as Ohio U is my alma mater. But just to show how unbiased I am, last year I had Miami in their 30-28 upset (as 4-pt dogs) in Oxford (also a Wednesday game). But it's back to the alma mater in 2019 as I'll lay the points. 

Last year's upset snapped a string of five straight wins by OU in the "Battle for the Bricks." I thought it was a terrible spot for them as they were coming off a 59-14 win the week prior and totally overvalued. Miami also needed the game to remain bowl eligible. Jumping out to a 28-7 halftime lead proved to be the difference for the RedHawks as they could only manage a safety in the 2H. Note that Ohio HC Frank Solich (15th year here) is still 11-3 SU all-time vs. Miami and that includes six straight wins here in Athens. There will be no motivational issues this time for the Bobcats w/ the East Division hanging in the balance. They were the favorite to win the Division coming into the year. 

Ohio started slow this year, including a couple of close losses. But they've seemed to finally hit their stride and played their "best" game of the year two Saturdays ago when they went to Ball State and "upset" the favored Cardinals 34-21. They ran for 300+ yards in the outright win. While 0-4 ATS at Peden Stadium this season, the Bobcats have won 13 of 16 here straight up. Miami is off B2B upsets beating Northern Illinois at home and Kent State on the road. I had 'em in the former. But I can't see three upsets in a row. The win over Kent State was the Redhawks' first on the road. There is a huge edge for Ohio at the QB position w/ senior Nathan Rourke over Miami freshman Brett Gabbert. That alone could be the difference as the home team should win comfortably. 10* Ohio

10* NY Giants (8:15 ET): This is the second meeting of the year between these long-time NFC East rivals. I made the mistake of playing the G-Men in the first, which they lost 35-17 as 7-point underdogs. That result seems to have set the tone for the respective seasons as Dallas is 5-3 (coming off a bye) while the Giants are 2-6 SU (and have lost four in a row). The Week 1 win by the Cowboys was also their fifth straight win and cover over the Giants. But look at this line for Monday night's rematch. The Giants are now basically getting the same number of points at home that they were on the road. There's some real value on the home dog here. Take the points. 

While still struggling, the Giants do look a lot different from when they faced the Cowboys in Week 1. The most obvious difference is at QB w/ Daniel Jones now starting instead of Eli Manning. Jones first appeared in Week 3 vs. Tampa Bay where he led a dramatic come from behind win. He then won his first career start, beating the Redskins 24-3. But since then, it's been nothing but losses as the Giants are 0-4. Slow starts have doomed the Giants during this stretch, but note that two of the four losses have been by six points or less. The other two were to the Vikings and Patriots, two of the best teams in the league. Jones will also finally have a full compliment of skill position players this week as RB Saquon Barkley and WR Sterling Shepard are both set to return. Keep in mind that both TE Evan Engram and WR Golden Tate have missed time as well, but they'll be on the field here as well. 

On the defensive side of the ball, there's also a fresh new face for the Giants. It's Leonard Williams, who was acquired this week in a trade w/ the Jets. The Giants' defense has been better over the L3 games and I expect a much better showing than the disastrous effort against the Cowboys in Week 1. Despite them destroying the Eagles two weeks ago, I remain highly skeptical of the Cowboys. They are 1-2 on the road w/ the lone win coming against Washington. They've already lost once in this stadium this year, falling as a 7-pt road favorite to the previously winless Jets. Despite many trends pointing Dallas' way in this game, I'm going the other way as this is a great sell high (Dallas) / buy low (Giants) spot with the two teams. 10* NY Giants

8* LA Chargers (4:25 ET): I was a big "buyer" on the Packers coming into the season, their 1st under new HC Matt LaFleur. The fact that a team w/ Aaron Rodgers could finish below .500 in B2B seasons is a real "black mark" for LaFleur's predecessor Mike McCarthy, even though one Rodgers was injured for a good chunk of one of those years. This year's obvious improvement aside, the Packers have clearly overachieved in getting to 7-1. They've won four games by seven points or less (lost only one) and are actually being outgained on both a per game and per play basis. I'll fade GB this week as they are the definition of a "public side" here. Take the points.

The Chargers finished 12-4 SU for HC Anthony Lynn last year and were favored to make the playoffs again. But they've reverted back to their "old ways" in 2019, losing a lot of close games and falling prey to injuries. All five Chargers' losses this year have been by seven points or less. But, finally, something went their way last week as they held on to beat Chicago 17-16, thanks to a missed FG attempt on the final play. LA was actually dominated statistically in the contest, getting outgained 388-231 and finishing w/ 15 fewer first downs than the Bears. But given how the first seven games had gone, the Lightning Bolts will take a win anyway they can get it. 

Something worth noting here is the Chargers had not been an underdog in any game this season until the L2 weeks. They pushed as a three-point dog vs. Tennessee and then had the outright win LW in Chicago. This team plays good defense, giving up only 19.6 PPG. Green Bay caught a huge break LW as they got to face Kansas City w/o Patrick Mahomes. This is the first time all season that the Pack have had to play two straight road games. The Chargers have actually lost three in a row at home, a streak we see likely coming to an end here even though they don't have much of a homefield advantage. Despite a 3-5 SU overall record, the Chargers have outgained their opponents and have scored the same number of points as they've allowed. This number is definitely on the "wrong side" of 3. 8* LA Chargers

10* Tampa Bay (4:05 ET): Sometimes it can be a "thin line" between being 2-5 and 6-2 in this league. Take these teams, for example. The 2-5 Bucs seem to specialize in "throwing games away" whether it be turning the ball over SEVEN times (like they did in London vs Carolina) or blowing 18-point leads (like they did vs the Giants). Last week was another close loss, 27-24 in Tennessee. As for 6-2 Seattle, they have five wins by seven points or less, including four by four or less. They have outscored opponents by only 12 points all year and the schedule is about to get a whole lot tougher. Believe it or not, the Seahawks are 0-4 ATS as home favorites this year. Take the points. 

Last week was microcosm of the season for these two teams. Tampa Bay outgained Tennessee 389-246, only to commit four more turnovers and lose. There was also an apparent fumble return for TD negated by an inadvertent whistle that would have won the game for the Bucs. It was Tampa's third loss this season by seven points or less. While that was going on, Seattle held on for a 27-20 win at Atlanta. While the Seahawks did lead 24-0 at halftime, they were eventually outgained 510-322, only to benefit from a +3 turnover margin. Such has been the respective 2019's for these two teams.

But this is where Tampa Bay's luck changes. Maybe it will be just temporarily, but they are definitely "due." The Bucs have outgained their opponents both on a per play and per game basis. They've only been outscored by 16 pts all year. Seattle's defense is giving up 6.4 yards play, which is more than what the Bucs allow. The Bucs' defense is actually #1 in the league against the run! Meanwhile, The Legion of Boom is long gone in Seattle and last week the Seahawks gave up 400+ yards passing to Atlanta (w/ Matt Schaub). Tampa Bay's offense has big play capability w/ two excellent receivers. Seattle's offensive line is in flux now w/ a new starting center. In each case here, the team's WL record is a little bit misleading. 10* Tampa Bay

10* Florida Atlantic (4:00 ET): This game feels very reminiscent of our September Game of the Month when we took FAU against Charlotte. The Owls were actually a slight dog heading into that contest (shocking in retrospect!), but prevailed 45-27 w/ 550+ yards of total offense. Five weeks later, they head to Western Kentucky to face a team that - like Charlotte - was not expected to finish near the top of the C-USA East Division standings. FAU was, so therefore I think the wrong team is favored in this matchup. Owls QB Chris Robison expects to start Saturday afternoon. Take the points.

These are two of the three teams that have just one conference loss in C-USA's East Division. Both lost to Marshall. Western Kentucky's loss to Marshall was last Saturday, 26-23, but they were 3.5-pt underdogs. So that makes it FIVE ATS wins in a row for the Hilltoppers. I think it's that streak that has them favored here, but note they were underdogs in three of those five games. WKU was -3 in TO's last week at Marshall, which proved costly. The Hilltoppers have been carried by a defense which has allowed just ONE 2nd half touchdown the L5 wks. But last week saw them surrender 401 yards and 26 points, the most in each category since a loss to Louisville on 9.14. FAU is arguably the best offensive team that WKU has faced all season.

Again, you would not have expected FAU to be an underdog in this game back at the start of the season. The Owls have won 5 of 6 since since an 0-2 start and really handled Old Dominion last week, winning 41-3. Robison has 208 yards passing in the first half, but didn't play in the second after being driven down hard into the turf. Note the Owls started 0-2 because they faced Ohio State and UCF. Believe it or not, the 24-point loss to Ohio State is tied for the closest any team has been to the Buckeyes all season. Robison has said he's preparing to start, so that's all we needed to know. FAU has beaten WKU both years under Lane Kiffin, winning 42-28 and 34-15. WKU has closed the gap a little in 2019, but still shouldn't be favored. We have the Owls 10 points better on a neutral field. 10* Florida Atlantic 

8* Army (3:30 ET): Over the last two seasons, Army achieved unprecedented heights for the program (at least in the "modern era"), winning 21 games under HC Jeff Monken. They even finished ranked (#19) in the final poll LY, which was their first time in the Top 25 since 1996! This year started auspiciously w/ a narrow win over Rice (who is still winless). But the following week saw the Black Knights nearly upset Michigan in "The Big House," the second year in a row they took a top 10 opponent into overtime (Oklahoma). So everything appeared OK. But October saw the Cadets seemingly marching "in reverse." They've lost four straight, the last three all coming as favorites. Now they're a big dog against Air Force. At 3-5 SU, if Army were to lose here, then they'd need to win out just to be bowl eligible. The situation screams "take the points" as these "Commander In Chief" games tend to be both close and low-scoring.

Air Force was a nice winner for us last Saturday. It was a late night game, hosting Utah State, and the Falcons rolled to a 31-7 victory as 3.5-pt chalk. They held USU to just 128 total yards, including just 14 rushing. The Flyboys are now 6-2 SU and have surpassed LY's win total. Five of the last six games, they've held the opposition below 100 rushing yards. That seems critical when facing Army. But let's look at the one opponent the Falcons failed to keep under 100 yards rushing during that stretch. It was Navy, who went for 214 in a 34-25 upset in Annapolis. That's obviously the most comparable offense to what the Falcons face this week. While Air Force may still be unbeaten at home, they do seem ripe for a letdown following three straight double digit victories. Army hasn't lost a game by more than 9 pts all year. 

As alluded to above, these C-in-C games always tend to be low-scoring. Usually, they are close as well. Army has beaten Air Force two straight years, something that had previously not happened since 1977-78. Last year was a 3-point win (17-14) in West Point. Over the last five seasons, no Army game against either Air Force or Navy has seen more than 43 total points scored. More than half have seen 31 total pts or less scored. That makes taking the points a "no brainer" here as Army is better suited for the underdog role anyway. 8* Army

8* Pittsburgh (8:15 ET): Despite them being left for dead following a season-ending injury to Ben Roethlisberger, don't count out the Steelers quite yet. They are 2-4 SU in a weak AFC. The only game that they played poorly in was a Week 1 loss to the Patriots, who are the best team in the league. Their other three losses have been by a total of nine points. They've saved some of their best efforts for primetime as two weeks ago they beat the Chargers on SNF and the team's "best" game of the year came on a Monday night when they whipped the winless Bengals 27-3. Coming off a bye and facing another winless team (Miami) in primetime this week, I expect the Black and Gold to roll. Lay the points.

Despite having one of the worst six-game starts in league history, the Dolphins seem to be drawing some interest from bettors here. Admittedly, they have been more competitive the L2 weeks, going 2-0 ATS. But that was against Washington (who was also winless at the time) and a Buffalo team that isn't as good as its record. Ryan Fitzpatrick seems to have breathed some life into a previously anemic offense, but he's 0-6 SU all-time against the Steelers. Also, Miami has yet to score more than 21 points in a game this season. They've been outscored by 148 points in the six games. No team has scored fewer points and none have given up more (even though many teams have played 8 games as opposed to Miami's 6!). This is a terrible football team, one of the worst in league history and they have a very real shot at going 0-16 SU. 

Pittsburgh coming off a bye week here is big because it allows for Mason Rudolph to return at QB. Rudolph is no Big Ben, but he's certainly an upgrade over Devlin Hodges, whom they were able to win with out in LA two weeks ago. Every team besides Washington has been able to score at least 30 points against this Dolphins' defense. The Steelers are typically a good October team having gone 8-2 SU, 8-1-1 ATS in the month the L3 seasons. They've got some advantages here in pass protection and should easily be able to move the ball against a Miami defense which ranks 31st against the run. It's a lot of points to swallow here, but the Dolphins are indeed "that bad." 8* Pittsburgh

8* Denver (1:00 ET): In what could ultimately be a low-scoring game, taking the points seems like the right move here. It feels as if we’re buying the Broncos at a low-point as they lost 30-6 to Kansas City last Thursday (even though the Chiefs lost Patrick Mahomes to injury). Last Sunday, Indianapolis was in an ideal spot facing the Texans. They were off a bye and won 30-23, leaving them alone in first place of the AFC South. Coming off that big win, it seems like a good spot to fade as the Colts have not won a game by more than seven points all season. 

The Colts are just the third team since 1970 to open with six straight games decided by seven points or less and win at least four of them. No team has ever started a year by playing seven straight one-score games and going 5-2 or better. So unless you think Indy is going to win in a blowout here, history is against them. Both of their losses came against AFC West team and neither of them were to Kansas City. Despite their 5-2 SU record, the Colts are being outgained on both a per game (-10.5) and per play basis (-1.1). They are a bit of a mirage as far as we’re concerned. 

The Broncos are better than their WL record. While 2-5 SU, they have actually outgained opponents on a per game and per play basis. The defense allows just 302.6 YPG, which is 4th best in the league! Now the offense isn’t great as Joe Flacco is clearly a stop gap until the next franchise QB is found. But only two of their losses have been by more than one score. The Colts’ YTD point differential is just +5. Denver can easily keep this game close, if not win it outright. 8* Denver

10* Cincinnati (1:00 ET): The Bengals are winless (0-7), but they are far from the worst team in this league. Four of their seven losses have been by six points or less. Things could have ended up a lot differently last week vs. Jacksonville were it not for four turnovers. Three of those were Andy Dalton interceptions, the first of which came when it was still a one-score game in the 4Q. The second was a pick-six that made it a two-score game. The third led to a FG. The Bengals won’t lose every game this season and while they might not win this one, they’ll stay within the number. Take the points in London. 

Yes, this is a London game. While a spread such as this might be justified if the game were being played in LA, it’s definitely too high for a neutral setting where anything can happen. The Rams certainly aren’t as dominant right now as they’ve been the previous two seasons. While off their biggest margin of victory this season (37-10 over Atlanta), the Rams are still just 4-3 and not blowing many teams out. Prior to last week, there only other double digit win came when New Orleans lost Drew Brees mid-game. QB Jared Goff hasn’t thrown more than 2 TD passes in any game this season. 

Cincinnati has covered the last five times they’ve been an underdog of seven or more points and are 3-1 ATS the L4 times they’ve been a double digit dog. While things may look grim in the first season under HC Zac Taylor, the team should stay motivated until they get a win. Anything can happen in a London game, so the Bengals have a better shot here than they would if it were a “true” road game. Taylor knows the Rams as he previously served on Sean McVay’s staff. The Bengals’ defense is a lot more suspect against the run than the pass, but the Rams are more of a passing team. 10* Cincinnati

8* Air Force (10:15 ET): Though Boise State lost last week, it was to a non-conference opponent (BYU). So that means Utah State is still in a first place tie w/ the Broncos atop the division, one half-game up on this week's opponent, Air Force. Of course, BYU over Boise State was last week's LAST CHANCE POWER-DRIVE selection, so it only seems appropriate that we'd be playing this matchup. We're taking Air Force as they've got the homefield advantage + the revenge angle after losing LY in Logan by a score of 42-32. The Flyboys are a team we were relatively high on coming into the year whereas USU figured to regress from LY's 11-2 SU campaign. Lay the short number. 

The AFA is 5-2 SU overall and coming off a 56-26 win over Hawaii, their 2nd straight win by double digits. The week prior, here in Colorado Springs, saw them beat Fresno State 43-24. So the offense is certainly "humming along" right now. Much of that is obviously due to the triple option as the Falcons have run for 340+ yards in B2B weeks. But they've also added a bit more of a passing element to their arsenal this season. Utah State, save for the 42-6 loss to LSU, has done a good job at stopping the run this year. But the big key here is that the Aggies are last in the country in time of possession. The defense figures to be on the field a LOT of the time Saturday night and is likely to wear down as the game progresses. 

The only MWC loss Air Force has suffered this was to Boise State, on the road. While they lost that game 30-19 as eight-point underdogs, they actually were dead even in total yardage (355-355) and were up late in the third quarter. The other loss was to Navy, which is always a tricky matchup. Utah State has lost two of its three road games so far and those two losses were the only games so far this season where they were underdogs. Three of their four wins have been in games where they were favored by three touchdowns or more. They are just 4-10 SU the L14 times being underdogs. The TOP element is going to be a big deal here and we look for the favorite to pull away late. 8* Air Force

8* Maryland (3:30 ET): What has gone wrong w/ Maryland? Once touted as an up-and-coming program, the Terrapins have seen their season go "sideways" w/ last week's 34-28 setback vs. Indiana being their 4th loss in the last 5 games (only win was against Rutgers). Of course, we backed the Terps in that lone win. We'll do it again this week as we remain highly skeptical of Minnesota despite its unbeaten record. The Golden Gophers are also off a convincing win over Rutgers, running their YTD record to 7-0 SU. But four of those wins have come by 7 points or less and it's not like they've played a ton of heavyweights. Too many points to pass up here as Maryland is an attractive underdog in this spot. Grab the number. 

It would be easy to pin Maryland's recent woes on the fact they were starting a backup QB. Tyrrell Pigrome went 0-2 in place of an injured Josh Jackson, who is expected to return here. Two late turnovers, one of them a Pigrome INT, cost Maryland dearly last week in College Park. That came not long after a fumble led to the eventual GW FG for Indiana. While on the surface, things may not look as if they are going too well for 1st year HC Mike Locksley right now, this is a team that was ranked in the Top 25 last month. Even w/ a backup QB, the Terps averaged nearly 400 YPG the L2 games. Not only is Jackson expected back this week, but so too is RB Anthony McFarland, who was also dealing w/ an ankle sprain. It certainly won't be easy for Minnesota to outscore Maryland by the amount the oddsmakers are calling for here.

The Golden Gophers may be ranked 17th in the country, but I'm not sure anyone believes there are only 16 teams better than this one. There's probably more than 25 teams that would be favored against them on a neutral field, including six from the Big 10! Maryland may not be one of them, but the Terrapins deserve more respect than this w/ their QB and RB both set to return. They have beaten Minnesota each of the last two years including as a 13-point dog here at TCF Bank Stadium two years ago. Last year, it was a 42-13 game at College Park and the Terps probably were a weaker team then. Look for Minnesota's 4-game ATS win streak to come to an end here as the 'dog should keep this one within single digits. 8* Maryland

8* Kansas State (12:00 ET): It's not like Kansas State is a bad team or incapable of pulling an upset. Just last week, here in Manhattan, the Wildcats beat TCU 24-17 as 4.5-point pups. They also went to Mississippi State earlier and the year and won outright. A couple losses to Oklahoma State and Baylor have lowered their profile somewhat, but we still don't think they should be catching this many points, even against mighty Oklahoma. The unbeaten Sooners are probably feeling pretty good about themselves coming off a 52-14 beatdown of West Virginia last Saturday. But prior to next week's open date, I can see a letdown taking place here. We've seen some unbeatens go down as big favorite the last couple Saturday's. So take the points here w/ a dog that should be giving its 'A effort'.

It would obviously take a 'Herculean effort' from Kansas State to pull the upset. But it's a chance for 1st year HC Chris Klieman to certainly put his imprint on this program. Klieman took over for a legend, that being Bill Snyder, and I think he's certainly done a good job here so far. That shouldn't be a shock considering the success he had at North Dakota State, which was one of the premier FCS teams every year during his tenure there. While an outright upset is admittedly unlikely Saturday in Manhattan, the home dog can certainly stay within this generous number. Last week's upset of TCU brought the Wildcats' ATS record as a home dog to 16-8 the L11 seasons. It was a game they actually never trailed. 

The surprising thing about Oklahoma this year has been the play of the defense, which ranks 28th nationally in yards allowed. But that unit has lost LB Jon-Michael Terry for the year. The Sooners did outclass Texas in the RRR, but other than that haven't really played anybody of note. They've faced the three worst teams in the Big 12. So the fact they are racking up big margins of victory is not that shocking. A Kansas State defense that has allowed more than 26 pts just one time in 2019 should be OU's 2nd real "test" of the season. The Sooners are just 3-7 ATS following a SU win by 20+ points. Kansas State has upset Oklahoma twice in the past seven years and certainly is out to avenge last year's 37-point loss in Norman. 8* Kansas State

10* Miami FL (12:00 ET): "The U" probably didn't figure it would be getting this many points from Pitt in a late October clash. Then again, they probably didn't anticipate being 3-4 SU coming into this game either. But those are the realities heading into this Saturday at Heinz Field. Last week, the Hurricanes lost outright as 18.5-point favorites to Georgia Tech, a real embarrassment considering the Yellow Jackets had yet to cover a spread all season. You should look for the 'Canes to bounce back and play inspired ball this week, however. We remain unsold on Pitt, a team that is 5-0 ATS its last five games. With that ATS record, note the Panthers have only been favored twice and never by more than 4.5 points! The last four wins have been by a total of 14 points. Take the points. 

Despite being favored in all of the last six games, Miami is just 3-3 straight up. That's pretty shocking to see. Before losing to Ga Tech, the team's previous loss came to Virginia Tech. You may recall we backed them the following week and they pulled what could be called an upset over a ranked Virginia team (Miami was actually -3 in the game). One certainly has to hope that LW's loss will prove to the nadir of HC Manny Diaz's 1st year here in Coral Gables. It was an overtime loss where Miami had the potential GW field goal (just 25 yards!) blocked at the end of regulation. They also gave up a TD on a fake punt and had a fumble recovered in the end zone for another score. All four Miami losses this year have come by seven points or less. 

Pitt played Penn State tough and owns an outright win over UCF. They've also picked up a pair of ACC road wins the L2 weeks, beating Duke and Syracuse. But this is a team that was favored by only 4.5 over Ohio U here at home earlier this season. As alluded to above, last week's win at Syracuse marked just the second lined game all season in which the Panthers were the betting favorite. Last year, Miami crushed Pitt 24-3 as the Panthers had a spot in the ACC Championship Game already sewn up. We backed the Hurricanes that day and will do so again this year. Ironically, Miami's only loss to Pitt in the L4 years came in 2017 when they were ranked #2 in the country! While Pitt is 5-2 SU overall, they have a YTD point differential of +1. The Miami defense is allowing a fewer number of points per game. 10* Miami (FL)

10* Houston (7:30 ET): We lost two more unbeaten teams last week (Wisconsin, Boise State), dropping the number left nationally to 10. Among those 10 teams, SMU has to be considered one of the more surprising on the list. The Ponies have reached a level that the program has not seen since pre-"Death Penalty." This was not really expected from Sonny Dykes' team in 2019 in what should still be considered a pretty loaded West Division in the American. SMU was actually a slight dog at Arkansas State in Week 1. Since then, they've been an underdog only one other time (at TCU), yet this is the first time all season they truly feel "overvalued." 

Houston has essentially had the exact opposite season of SMU w/ numerous players electing to redshirt, leading to a very disappointing 3-4 SU record. Before the season started, it would have been considered highly unlikely that SMU would be favored in this game. Being favored by double digits would be almost inconceivable. Yet here we are. The Cougars' QB situation is something worth monitoring as Clayton Tune is expected to return and start. Tune has not been healthy since the Sept 28 vs. North Texas, which was his first start. Remember that Tune was only called into duty because D'Eriq King redshirted. UH should be a much different team w/ a healthy Tune back this week. 

SMU is now ranked #16 in the country and is the highest ranked "Group of 5" team. So they've got a target on their back now. The only game they've failed to cover was two weeks ago as a DD favorite vs. Tulsa. Off an impressive win LW over Temple w/ Memphis on deck, the Mustangs are in a prime lookahead situation against a team hungry for a win on the national stage. Two of Houston's losses have been by seven points and all four were to pretty good teams. SMU is good, but they aren't the 16th best team in the country by any means. We don't even consider them in the top 30. SMU was a 14-point dog when it faced Houston AT HOME last year. Now they are two TD favorites on the road. SMU pulled the outright upset LY too. Home team has won four straight and 7 of 8 in this Texas rivalry. This is the most points Houston has gotten at home in some time. 10* Houston

8* Philadelphia (8:20 ET): Coming into the year, we projected the Eagles to win the NFC East. But after three weeks, that projection wasn’t looking so hot. Philadelphia was 1-2 and Dallas was 3-0. But two weeks later, the teams were tied. Both lost last week. While the Cowboys still maintain the better YTD point differential, that’s still a byproduct of playing what was the league’s easiest schedule the first three weeks. They faced the Eli Manning-led Giants, Washington and Miami. We’re still confident in Philly winning this division and obviously so is their coach (more on that later). Take the points. 

Dallas has actually been favored in every game this year. I believe the Patriots and Chiefs are the only other teams that can say that. But after opening w/ that easy three-game stretch, they’ve lost three in a row outright, including an embarrassing setback last week at the hands of the Jets. The Jets were our Underdog POWER-SHOCKER, but even we were surprised at the relative ease with which they won that game (trailed by as many as 18!). The week prior saw the Cowboys fall behind the Packers by 28 points. Now they should be getting back both starting tackles along the O-line. However, their top two receivers are now both banged up.

Eagles’ HC Doug Pederson has all but guaranteed a victory this week. HIs team is off a terrible showing in Minnesota where they lost 38-20. But the Vikings happen to be a very good team. This is a triple revenge spot for the Eagles, who lost both meetings last season and the final one in 2017. Road underdogs have been incredible this NFL season, covering nearly two-thirds of the time, and division games have often been the best spot to take them. Furthermore, Dallas is just 2-5 ATS the L7 times it has been favored by four points or less.  8* Philadelphia

10* Baltimore (4:25 ET): I don’t think we’re alone in being surprised at Seattle’s 5-1 SU record. Yes, this was a playoff team last year. But after a 1st round exit, it “felt” like they would be taking a step back. The defense, once the identity of the franchise, is no longer what it once was. However, Russell Wilson is playing the best football of his career. Wilson has had a passer rating of 100+ in all six games w/ a 14-0 TD-INT ratio. He’s completing 73% of his passes at 9.0 YPA. However, I can’t shake the feeling that the Seahawks have been a bit lucky this year. All but one win, over Arizona, has been by four points or less. Take the points with Baltimore here.

Wilson isn’t the only QB gaining headlines in this matchup. The Ravens’ Lamar Jackson is proving he’s no one-year wonder. He has a completion percentage and YPA similar to Wilson. He’s also obviously a bigger running threat. Last week, Jackson ran for 152 yards (against the Bengals). That was in addition to 236 yds passing. Baltimore seems to have a pretty clear path to win a weak AFC North right now. Since beating Miami 59-10 in the opener, they’ve actually been outscored by 5 points. They too (like Seattle) have had lots of close wins. But note they did outgain the Bengals almost 2:1 last week before giving up a garbage time TD. 

Neither team’s defense is what it used to be. But Seattle is giving up 6.5 yards per play. They had to come from behind to beat a sloppy Cleveland team last week. Baltimore has gone five straight games w/o covering, but this will be just the 2nd time all season that they have been an underdog. They are 11-5 ATS L16 road games. One factor tough to quantify is this will be Earl Thomas’ return to Seattle. Expect the Ravens’ safety to come out highly motivated and play well. At the end of the day, I just can’t see Seattle going to 6-1. 10* Baltimore

8* Minnesota (1:00 ET): Many would argue that the Lions were “robbed” Monday night. Two BAD penalties went against them late in a 23-22 loss to the Packers. But settling for five field goals was the real culprit in a game where they were actually outgained 447-299. Refs or no refs, you can’t lose a game where you were +3 in turnovers, even w/ that difference in total yardage. This week, Detroit hosts a Minnesota team hungry for a divisional road win after losing at both Chicago and Green Bay. The Vikings are the better team here and we’ll lay the short number

While they did lose at both Soldier and Lambeau Fields, the Vikings’ other four games have all been wins by 2 TD’s or more. They’ve been an excellent home team thus far, going 3-0 and winning by an average of 18 PPG. They too should have beaten the Packers as they outgained them by a huge margin - at least on a per play basis (7.4 to 4.8!) - in a Week 2 meeting in GB. But unlike the Lions, Minnesota was done in by a -3 TO differential against the Pack. The Vikings are 4-0 SU/ATS as favorites this year and 19-8 ATS L27 in the role (22-5 SU). So when the oddmakers like Mike Zimmer’s team, they often come through. 

While a lot of criticism is thrown Kirk Cousins’ way, one thing the Vikings do very well is run the ball. They are #3 in the league at 159 YPG. On the flip side, the defense is very good at stopping the run, allowing just 91 YPG. On a per play basis, Minnesota has one of the top yardage differentials in the league right now. Most power rating systems consider this one of the top five teams in the league, including ours. On a short week and off a brutal loss, we don’t see Detroit being able to hang here. The Vikings took both meetings LY, holding the Lions to just nine points in both games. 8* Minnesota

8* Atlanta (1:00 ET): Two teams desperate for a win meet this week in Atlanta. It appears as if the old “Super Bowl loser’s curse” has afflicted the Rams, who opened 3-0, but are now 3-3. The Falcons are 1-5 SU after a BRUTAL one-point loss LW in Arizona, leaving HC Dan Quinn’s future very much in doubt. The big story coming into this game will be the new-look Rams secondary, which will have THREE new starters, including Jalen Ramsey, who was acquired in a trade w/ Jacksonville. Getting a player like Ramsey is huge, but it’s going to take awhile for this new secondary to gel. Take the points w/ an Atlanta team that is at home and desperate. 

Despite the Falcons’ poor start, QB Matt Ryan actually leads the league w/ 15 TD passes and has thrown for 300+ yards in every game. If he were able to throw for 300+ against this new Rams secondary, he’d be the first QB in NFL history to open a season w/ seven straight 300+ yd games. We think he can do it. The problem for Atlanta has been turnovers, though they’ve cut down on them in recent weeks. Remember this Rams’ defense gave up 55 pts to Tampa Bay a few weeks ago. Atlanta has scored 65 pts the L2 wks. They’ll put plenty of points on the board here.

Last week saw the Falcons lose when veteran kicker Matt Bryant missed what would have been the game-tying XP. The week prior saw them fall apart late in Houston as that 53-32 final was actually a one score game at the two-minute warning! The Rams were totally outclassed by the 49ers last week, losing 20-7 at home as their high-powered offense was held to 165 total yards. We told you to take the 49ers and will fade the Rams again here. 8* Atlanta

8* BYU (10:15 ET): Right now there are two teams in the top 20 we don't feel actually deserve to be there and they are Boise State and Arizona State. The latter is a DD dog this week at Utah, so obviously the oddsmakers have a similar view on the Sun Devils. But Boise State finds itself laying points in Provo, which isn't surprising, but does open up the opportunity for a "value pick" on BYU this week. Now the Cougars haven't been a good value each of the last three weeks, losing every game (SU and ATS) w/ the last two coming as favorites. They were actually road favorites the L2 games, so now they get to try the home dog role finally and it's one that should suit them quite well. Take the points. 

Boise State is one of 12 unbeatens we have left in College Football, so it's no surprise that they are ranked. They check in at #14 in the latest poll. For a frame of reference, we have them just outside the Top 25 in our own power rankings. Now you may recall us backing the Broncos back in Week 1 against Florida State. They won, as 6.5-pt underdogs, 36-31. But that win no longer looks as impressive (FSU just isn't that good) and they actually trailed 31-13 in the first half of that game. Since then, it's been nothing but cupcakes on the schedule. They are 5-1 ATS but a lot of the previous spreads seem low in retrospect (only -8 at home vs. Air Force?). QB Hank Bachmeier took a big hit last week against Hawaii and injured his hip. It was bad enough that he didn't play in the 2H and his status for this game is in question. That would obviously be a big loss for the Broncos. 

BYU is also dealing w/ an injury at the QB position. Jaren Hall suffered a concussion in LW's loss at USF. While concussions must be treated seriously, it seems like Hall is more likely to play than Bachmeier as the latter's injury being described as "not season ending" sounds serious. Neither side is expected to reveal who will start until close to kickoff. Nevertheless, we are on the dog here as BYU has definitely been unlucky the L2 wks (beyond the QB injury) as they outgained both Toledo and USF, only to lose both games. Both were one score games where the Cougars blew a 4th quarter lead. We'll take the points in this one as the home team is 7-2 SU all-time in this rivalry and LY saw BYU only lose by five on the blue turf (as a 13-pt dog). 8* BYU

10* Texas (7:00 ET): I can see people talking themselves into Kansas here as UT was just lost to Oklahoma in the RRR and now has to come back and lay three touchdowns. However, let's not get it twisted. This is a game the Longhorns should win big. The Horns were a little outclassed last week by OU, but we expected that and they still lost by only seven points. Their only other loss this year was also by seven, to LSU, so a pair of one-score losses to top five teams are their only blemishes. That's not bad. They remain a Top 20 team in the country while Kansas is still clearly at the bottom of the Big XII pecking order, despite having Les Miles as HC and a 24-point win over Boston College. Lay the points here. 

Texas should not have difficulty scoring points Saturday night in Austin as they are going up against a KU defense that ranks 103rd in efficiency. The Longhorns' offense is #12 in overall efficiency, led by QB Ehlinger, who has thrown for 17 touchdowns and only two interceptions. The game last week vs. Oklahoma was the 1st time all season Texas did NOT go over 400 total yards (only 310), but Kansas is giving up 444.5 YPG so far and that number gets even uglier when you factor out home games vs. Indiana State and Coastal Carolina. Coming off a conference loss, Texas has gone 5-2 ATS the last two seasons.

Kansas did shock a lot of people when it went to Chesnut Hill on a Friday night and beat Boston College by 24 points. But that performance remains an outlier on their resume. Since then the Jayhawks are 0-3, including a 37-point loss at TCU. They lost by 25 at home to Oklahoma, which was two weeks ago. Here they are coming off a bye, but also have a new OC as Les Koenning was fired after the OU game. Brent Dearmon is the replacement and he inherits an offense that is averaging (easily) a Big XII low 22 PPG. Any kind of letdown UT might normally suffer here is mitigated by the fact they'll be taking KU very seriously due to an 0-3 ATS head to head record the L3 years. That includes an outright loss in Lawrence in 2016. Kansas lost to Coastal Carolina, at home, 12-7. They had less than 160 total yds of offense in the TCU game. We have this spread at four touchdowns, not three. The Longhorns should win comfortably and cover w/ "room to spare." It was a 24-7 game last year before Kansas scored a couple "garbage time" touchdowns. So don't be fooled by that final margin. 10* Texas

8* Oklahoma State (4:00 ET): So we enter Saturday w/ 12 undefeated teams left in College Football. Obviously, by the end of the regular season there won't be nearly that many, if any, left. Of the 12 currently remaining, seven are firmly entrenched as top 10 teams (Alabama, Clemson, LSU, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin) while three others hail from the "Group of Five" (App State, Boise State, SMU), so they'll be facing "lighter" schedules. That leaves two outliers - Baylor and Minnesota. Few, if any, projected these teams to still be unbeaten by mid-October even though between the two they only have two upset victories, both as very small dogs. But they are the two "most likely" to lose between now and the end of the regular season. We'll call for Baylor's unbeaten run to end Saturday as they are slight underdogs at Oklahoma State. 

Both teams played Texas Tech their last time out. It was Baylor's turn last week and they needed 2 OT's to remain unbeaten, winning 33-30 as 10.5-point chalk. They needed a last second FG just to get into overtime. It was the Bears' third win this year by eight points or less, two of those coming in Big XII play (23-21 at home vs. Iowa St) and the other against a lousy Rice team. Tip your cap to the job Matt Rhule has done in Waco in just two seasons. His first ended with a 1-11 SU record as he inherited a total mess but then the team jumped to 7-6 last season. They're one win away from matching LY's win total. But Oklahoma State will be the toughest test they've had so far, especially w/ the game in Stillwater. Also, linebacker Clay Johnston is now done for the year (knee) and he led the defense in tackles by a wide margin.

Oklahoma State is off a bye, so the situation favors them tremendously w/ Baylor also coming off a tough 2OT game. Yes, the Cowboys did lose to Texas Tech two weeks ago, but that was in Lubbock and they turned the ball over five times. We don't consider the different head-to-head results these teams had vs. Texas Tech to be all that significant. What we do consider significant though is the fact this is just the 5th time since 2013 that a team that's 6-0 SU or better is an underdog to an unranked opponent. The previous three all lost (by at least a touchdown) and that includes a game we played LY w/ Houston against USF (won by 21). Furthermore, the Pokes are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS when unranked and favored against a Top 25 team the L10 years. This is revenge game for OSU as well as they lost 35-31 in Waco (as 6-pt chalk) last year. 8* Oklahoma State

8* Mississippi State (3:30 ET): Mississippi State has fared very poorly its last two games, losing to Auburn and Tennessee by a combined 43 points. But both of those games were on the road. Now they are back in Starkville (where they are 13-4 SU/ATS L17) and not much is being expected as they are hosting #2 LSU. Mississippi State finds itself as the "meat" smack dab in the middle of a Florida-Auburn sandwich for LSU, who might be feeling a bit too good about itself coming off last week's 14-point win over the Gators in Baton Rouge. We don't think LSU is the #2 in the country, so they're a bit overrated right now as well. Take the points. 

Now there is no denying LSU has looked very impressive so far, especially on the offensive side of the ball w/ QB Joe Burrow. But this just reeks of being a flat spot in between two games against top 15 opponents, not to mention they have the showdown w/ Alabama after that. So this is the Tigers only game against a non-Top 15 opponent in five week's time. It's on the road where they've only had to go twice and one of those was Vanderbilt. The other was Texas, an impressive win, but it only came by seven points. LSU is 4-0-2 ATS on the season, so there's probably no better time than right now to fade as the public is in love w/ them. Florida actually had more first downs last week (28-22) and it was a one-score game the entire way before LSU put things away w/ a late TD. Early in the 3Q, LSU was down 28-21. 

Mississippi State has been favored in every game except Auburn this year, so at 3-3 SU they are clearly underachieving. Turnovers have been a problem for them as they've committed 10 in the L4 games, three of those being losses. The trip to Auburn was a disaster and then in an early kickoff (Noon ET) last week they fell behind Tennessee early. As a result, oddsmakers have jacked this price up several points higher than where we feel it should be at. LSU lost here two years ago, 37-7, and was slightly outgained in LY's meeting 260-239. The last four times Miss State has been a home dog, they are 4-0 ATS, 3-1 SU w/ the only SU loss coming by 7 against Alabama (#1 at the time). Take the big number here. 8* Mississippi State

10* Miami OH (2:30 ET): Truth be told, the MAC is not very good this year. No team will challenge for the Group of Five spot in a New Year's Six bowl, so it's all down to conference pride at this point. Both Northern Illinois and Miami were not shy about taking on challenging non-conference schedules. NIU made three consecutive visits to Utah, Nebraska and Vanderbilt, all P5 foes obviously and lost all three games. Meanwhile, Miami made unsuccessful visits to Iowa, Cincinnati and Ohio State. Both teams are 1-1 in MAC play and 2-4 SU overall. But one thing they don't have in common in last week's results. Northern Illinois went to Ohio and pulled the upset, coming from behind to win 39-36 as 4.5-pt dogs. Miami lost at Western Michigan in a misleading 38-16 final. We still have the RedHawks rated as the slightly better team, so it makes sense to take them here as a home dog. 

Northern Illinois was down 11 pts at halftime last week in Athens (even w/ a blocked punt returned for a TD) and appeared headed for what would have been a fifth consecutive loss. But the Huskies quickly got back in the game w/ two scoring drives in the 3Q and were actually ahead 29-21 halfway through the 4Q. But it took a FG as time expired to pull out the outright win. It should be noted NIU's only other win this year was against a FCS team (Illinois St) back in Week 1. Winning on the conference road B2B weeks is not easy to do, but that's what NIU is looking at here. Last year, coming off a big home win over Toledo (38-15 as 3-pt chalk), the Huskies would face Miami in DeKalb and lost 13-7 as seven-point favorites. They are just 4-9 ATS off their previous 13 MAC wins. 

Miami is a very solid 17-7 SU/ATS its last 24 conference games. Despite going 6-6 (SU) overall last year, they were not invited to a bowl. So they'll need a strong finish to guarantee a postseason game this year. Last week's loss to Western Michigan was misleading in the sense that they actually outgained the Broncos despite losing by 22. It was a 21-16 game early in the 4Q despite a pick-six having gone against them. Miami has three "easy" games remaining (Kent State, Bowling Green, Akron) that they should win, but they'll need another just to be bowl eligible. This is their best shot seeing as the other two games will be on the road. They are 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS off the L6 conference losses and should get going offensively against a team giving up 33.2 PPG to FBS opponents. 10* Miami OH

10* Syracuse (7:00 ET): We've played against Syracuse two times this season w/ very differing results. The first will likely end up as our easiest winner of the year as we went w/ Maryland, a pick 'em, and they beat the 'Cuse 63-20. A week after the Orange had been squeezed by Clemson (lost 41-6), we faded them again, this time as a short favorite here in the Carrier Dome. The opponent was Western Michigan, but the Cuse won 52-33, a game that was much closer than that score. Dino Babers' team is now 3-3 SU overall, losing all three times it has been a dog. They're a HOME dog Friday night vs. Pitt and this looks like a good spot to jump on board. Take the points. 

Pitt is 4-2 SU, but has actually been favored in one game vs. a FBS opponent. So Pat Narduzzi has his team overachieving w/ upsets of UCF and Duke. They also played Penn State tough, in Happy Valley, losing by just a TD. But they also only beat Delaware by three (17-14) at home. So good luck figuring this team out the rest of the way. Key to the close call vs. Delaware was the fact QB Kenny Pickett did not play (hurt his shoulder vs. UCF). Also, six other starters sat out that game. The Panthers came in at "full strength" for their last game against Duke and took a 26-3 lead early in the 2H. But they proceeded to blow all of that 23-point advantage and needed a last minute FG to secure the 33-30 win as 3-pt underdogs. Six Duke turnovers were crucial to the Panthers winning as well. 

Pitt's offense has certainly struggled at times. They've topped 20 points just two times. That won't be enough to win a second ACC road game in as many weeks, let alone cover. The Panthers have had 13 days off since beating Duke while Syracuse lost last Thursday to NC State. The Orange offense took awhile to get going last week, but was up against a good defense. This is the fourth home game in five weeks for Syracuse, so that counteracts the extra time Pitt has had to prepare. At 0-2 in ACC play (Pitt is 1-1), the Orange are going to come out desperate in what is a revenge game for them after losing 44-37 in overtime at Heinz Field last year. 10* Syracuse

10* Denver (8:20 ET): All of a sudden, the Chiefs look vulnerable as they've dropped B2B games. In both losses the offense was held below 26 points, which was a threshold they had crossed in EVERY game with Patrick Mahomes as the starting QB. You have to wonder if a sprained ankle Mahomes suffered back in Week 1 is starting to be a contributing factor to the "offensive decline." The Colts held the Chiefs to just 13 points in a pretty shocking upset two weeks ago while Mahomes and company (didn't have the ball much in the 2H) could only manage 24 in a loss LW to the Texans. Both losses were at home. The "world" figures to be on KC here. But the Broncos are going to be just as motivated, if not more so, trying to snap a seven-game losing skid in this AFC West rivalry. Take the points. 

Denver's season has taken the exact opposite trajectory of KC's. They started w/ four straight losses, but have since won B2B games for 1st year HC Vic Fangio. We were on the first, calling it a "must-win" against the Chargers and Denver delivered w/ a 20-13 upset as 6.5-point dogs. Last week was a 16-0 shutout of the Titans as the defense stepped up big again. The Broncos have played better than you might think for a team that started 0-4. They've led going into the fourth quarter each of the last three weeks and two of their four losses came on last second FG's at home. Their record easily could be 4-2 right now. Note the Broncos have outgained opponents by almost 30 YPG this year. After forcing zero turnovers the first four weeks, the defense has SIX the last two. They've also allowed the 4th fewest YPG (307.8) on the year and have scored the same number of points that they have allowed 

While the ankle injury may have originally occurred in Week 1, Mahomes definitely re-aggravated it in the game vs. Indianapolis two weeks ago. The Chiefs' offense hasn't looked the same since. The offensive line has struggled both in the run game and pass protection. Mahomes' completion percentage the L2 weeks were his two lowest of the season. Then there is the issue of the Chiefs' defense, which wasn't good last year and has now given up 180+ yards rushing four straight games. To beat Kansas City, you need to own the line of scrimmage (like Indy did) and we think Denver is capable of doing just that. The L3 seasons have seen the Broncos go a perfect 4-0 ATS as a home dog of three points or less w/ three outright wins. 10* Denver

10* Green Bay (8:20 ET): Believe it or not, the Lions have won and covered all four games vs. the Packers the L2 seasons. Of course, those weren't particularly great years for Green Bay. Two years ago, Aaron Rodgers missed a large chunk of the season and the team went just 7-9 SU. Last year proved to be the swan song for former HC Mike McCarthy who was shown the door after a 6-9-1 SU finish, which was one less win than the previous year despite having Rodgers the entire time. But 2019 just "felt" like it might be different. With Matt LaFleur now in charge, we were relatively high on the Packers coming into the season and sure enough, they've raced out to a 4-1 SU start and lead the NFC North. They've already picked up key division wins over the Bears and Vikings. Now they face the Lions, who are a surprising 2-1-1 and off a bye. We don't have any doubt who the better team is here. Some nice line value now thanks to the move. Lay the short number. 

The week before the bye saw the Lions lose a tough one to the Chiefs, 34-30. Maybe that's why some bettors seem interested in them this week. But despite playing KC tough for four quarters, we still have our doubts about the long-term success of this Detroit team. The defense is giving up over 400 YPG, which is something that only five other teams can say. They really struggle against the pass, giving up 280.8 YPG through the air, which ranks 30th and could obviously be a problem facing the likes of Rodgers, who has had some big MNF games in the past. Rodgers comes into tonight w/ a streak of four straight MNF games w/ 300+ yards passing. A big reason the Lions struggle against the pass is they don't rush the QB all that well.

Both teams have played mostly close games. In fact, all four Detroit games have been decided by 4 pts or less. But Green Bay's performance last week was more impressive than anything Detroit has done this season. The Packers led Dallas by as many as 28 as they moved to 4-1 SU and ATS. They ended up beating the Cowboys by 10. Green Bay's only loss this year was their last home game, a Thursday night matchup w/ Philadelphia where the offense still gained nearly 500 total yards. Where the spread is now, oddsmakers are basically saying these teams are even w/ the Pack getting credit for being at home. We'd have GB favored by 3.5 on a neutral field, so there's definitely value taking them at this number at Lambeau. 10* Green Bay

8* Pittsburgh (8:20 ET): It's been nothing short of a disastrous start to the season for the Steelers, who are down to their third string QB Devlin Hodges, an undrafted player from a FCS school It's not like Hodges didn't succeed in College. He was actually the Player of the Year in 2018 as he finished his four-year career at Samford w/ the most passing yards in FCS history! Don't be surprised if the Steelers' offense actually ends up performing better with Hodges operating under center. Mason Rudolph obviously wasn't the answer, yet I thought the Black & Gold actually performed admirably in LW's 26-23 OT loss to Baltimore. That was the Steelers' third loss by four points or less. So they've been a competitive team. Take the points Sunday night. 

We faded the Chargers last week as well. They were laying a similar spread to winless Denver and lost outright, 20-13. The offense turned the ball over three times and gained only 246 total yards. While Philip Rivers will be making his 214th consecutive start (213 more than Hodges) and RB Melvin Gordon is back, the Chargers are far from full strength right now. TE Hunter Henry might return. But four of the five offensive lineman have three or less years experience and there's a new center. There are just a ton of injuries on both sides of the ball for this team. Turnovers have been a problem as they have 2+ in three of five games. The Chargers' only win in regulation this year came against Miami. 

With injuries to the receivers, Rivers averaged just 4.4 yards per completion last week. Again, the Miami game was the only one where the LA offense scored more than 24 pts in regulation. So they're a shaky favorite in this spot. Pittsburgh's defense has allowed just 175 and 277 total yards the last two games. Hodges is obviously a total Wild Card entering this game, but we're willing to bank he's no liability. Incredibly, QB's making their first career start this year are a perfect 7-0 ATS! The Steelers are 6-1-1 ATS as an underdog the L2 seasons and it's not like the Chargers have any kind of real homefield advantage. They are just 6-12-1 ATS at home since returning to LA. 8* Pittsburgh

8* NY Jets (4:25 ET): Our preseason projection on the Jets has been downgraded severely, but the main culprit for the team's poor play these first four games has obviously been the QB situation. That changes this week w/ the return of Sam Darnold. The 2nd year signal caller has missed the L3 games w/ mono and the results have been nothing short of disastrous. The Jets have been outscored 84-23 while scoring just ONE offensive touchdown! The one game Darnold did start was the opener vs. Buffalo and that's a game the Jets "should have" won (lost by 1) as they led 16-0 and forced four turnovers. They may not win this week, but Darnold will have them competitive. Take the points. 

Things were looking great for Dallas through three weeks as they opened the season 3-0. But while the offense was putting up nice looking numbers, that had just as much to do w/ whom they were facing. It was the Eli Manning-led Giants, Washington and Miami. The latter two both remain winless and are a combined 0-9 SU. Since then, the Cowboys have suffered B2B upsets at the hands of New Orleans and Green Bay. The offense scored only 10 pts in New Orleans and then turned it over three times LW vs. Green Bay. Even though it ended up being a 31-24 final, the Cowboys initially trailed the Packers 31-3. It's hard to win in this league by more than a TD on the road. We're willing to bank Dallas fails to do so here. 

Darnold may not be an All-Pro, but the upgrade from third-stringer Luke Falk is massing. Remember that backup Trevor Siemian broke his leg in the second game. The two games Falk started - the Jets gained just 233 yards total! RB Le'Veon Bell was rendered a non-factor as opposing defenses did not have to fear the pass. With Darnold back, that changes. On defense, the Jets are obviously going to have to be focused on stopping the run as they get set to face Ezekiel Elliot. Fortunately, they are giving up just 3.4 yards per carry and 87 yds rushing per game. The Jets won't lose 'em all this year, as with Darnold this projected to be a competitive team. 8* NY Jets

8* Tennessee (4:25 ET): Picking Titans' games have been a challenge this year, but we've tried 'em all - to mixed results. The one constant has been the underdog winning all five games outright. Last week was not a good result for the Titans or us as they lost outright as home favorites to Buffalo. Facing a very good Bills' defense, Tennessee simply could not get anything going on offense as they gained only 252 yards in a 14-7 loss. But key was missing FOUR field goals. Kicker Cario Santos was quickly jettisoned after the loss and replaced ironically by Cody Parkey, who gained infamy for his own poor kicking effort in last year's playoffs w/ the Bears. Despite what happened last week, Tennessee is still a pretty good team and should not be getting points against 1-win Denver. 

The Broncos got their first win under HC Vic Fangio last week, beating the Chargers on the road 20-13. We took them as underdogs, noting it was probably time for them to "get off the schnide" and that's what happened as they held on after a fast start. It was 14-0 after the 1st quarter and three Chargers turnovers definitely aided in the upset win. But we'd remain leery of Denver as a favorite, a role which they've been in twice and lost both games outright. Joe Flacco is definitely not the long-term answer at QB, nor do we think he's a good short-term option either. Look for the Broncos offense to struggle here against a top five scoring defense.

The last time Tennessee were road dogs, we grabbed them and they turned in a dominant effort at Atlanta, winning that game 24-10. They are 2-0 SU/ATS as road dogs having also won the season opener in Cleveland. The Tennessee offense hasn't been great so far, but they don't turn the ball over and Denver's secondary continues to be banged up. The Titans have turned it over just once, tying a NFL record through five games. Denver's defense hadn't forced any turnovers prior to last week. Turnovers can certainly be a fluent situation, but history suggests the Broncos won't win that battle. They more than likely don't win this game either. The last three seasons have seen Denver go 4-13 ATS as a favorite including 0-5 as home chalk of three points or less.  Take the points. 8* Tennessee 

10* San Francisco (4:05 ET): The situation may not favor the 49ers here as they are coming off a Monday Night game and the Rams played last Thursday. But we believe them to be better team this year. Before you go accusing us of being "prisoners of the moment," note we were high on this 49ers team from the start. Back in Week 2, we took them in Cincinnati and told you to expect a surprisingly good season. They are now one of only two unbeatens left (Patriots) and ranked #2 overall in our power ratings. Take the points here as the Niners look to make another "statement." 

While the 49ers are ascending, the Rams look to be regressing. Last year's Super Bowl losers started 3-0 but have subsequently lost two straight games while giving up 85 points. The 55-40 loss to Tampa Bay (as 9-pt home favorites) was the real eye-opener. Note San Francisco held the Bucs to only 17 points (on the road) in an opening week victory. Last Thursday, the Rams lost 30-29 up in Seattle in a hard-fought game. Something you need to continue monitoring is the health of RB Todd Gurley. Gurley was effective in the 1st half last week when the Rams had the lead. But then he (again) vanished in the 2nd half as the game got away. Health is a concern and Gurley is listed as doubtful this week. On the defensive side of the ball, CB Aqib Talib is out. 

Something we want to make clear is that this potential "changing of the guard" in the NFC West is something we saw coming. All the metrics indicated across the board improvement for San Francisco this year. One was turnover differential Their defense intercepted only TWO passes the entire 2018 season. They've already intercepted SEVEN this year (in just 4 games!), which is tied for 2nd most in the league. Meanwhile, the Rams were lucky to be 6-1 SU in games decided by 7 pts or less in 2018. Last year, the 49ers defense gave up 88 points in two games against the Rams. That same defense has yet to allow more than 320 yards in a game this season. On offense, SF is battling a couple key injuries of their own (expect TE George Kittle to play). But they still have the top rushing attack in the league (over 200 YPG) w/ three different backs averaging at least 5.5 YPG. Since 2003, teams that are 4-0 SU or better and getting points have gone 15-8-1 ATS including four straight covers. 10* San Francisco 

10* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): Teddy Bridgewater's chances of earning a big payday as a starter in this league have probably passed. But he's definitely earned a nice ROI for anyone that's consistently bet him when he does start. Bridgewater's career ATS record is now 26-7 as a starting QB in the NFL, the best such mark EVER (15 starts min). That includes 3-0 ATS w/ the Saints this year as he's guided the team to "upsets" over Seattle and Dallas, then cover as chalk LW vs. Tampa Bay. It's clear that the oddsmakers adjusted too much w/ the Saints in the wake of the Drew Brees injury. But we think they've now "caught up" to them in a spot that screams "LOSS." All four of the Saints' wins this year have been by seven points or less, so despite Brees being hurt, they've been a bit lucky. 

Jacksonville has also had to turn to a backup QB this year, although in their case no one is complaining. Admittedly, when their big free agent signing Nick Foles (former Super Bowl MVP) went down in Week 1, there was a collective "groan" from the fanbase. But Gardner Minshew II has come from relative obscurity to become the new face of the franchise. The Jaguars might only be 2-2 SU w/ Minshew at the helm, but consider for a moment they've been an underdog in every game. This week will mark the 1st time all year that the Jags have been favored. It can be argued that they played well enough to win last week against Carolina as the offense gained over 500 yards. But a -3 turnover margin was too much to overcome as was Christian McCaffery's 237 yds from scrimmage.

Brees may not be the only key absence for New Orleans this week. RB Alvin Kamara is now listed as questionable. Him not playing would be quite the significant development. An ankle injury kept Kamara out of practice Friday, so he won't be 100% regardless. He's been held under 70 yds rushing four straight games anyway. Jalen Ramsey may be out for Jacksonville, but they're used to that now. Two things Jacksonville needs to do here. Feed Leonard Fournette (333 yds L2 games) and take care of the football. Do that and they'll drop the Saints to 2-5 SU/ATS their L7 as a road dog of 3 pts or less. It's time for the Bridgewater-led Saints to drop one. 10* Jacksonville

8* San Diego State (10:30 ET): Wyoming is about as fraudulent as any 4-1 team in the country right now as they've trailed by double digits in four of five games (including three wins) and have been outgained by an average of nearly 50 yards per game. Their only convincing effort came two weeks ago against a rapidly failing UNLV regime. Even w/ the benefit of a bye, we don't see the Cowboys duplicating that kind of effort Saturday night at San Diego State, who is also 4-1. While having the same record as Wyoming, SDSU happens to be outgaining its opponents by an average of about 50 YPG. They have a great defense and are at home, so we'll lay the short number in this one. 

When this College Football season is over, we may look back at Wyoming's upset of Missouri in Week 1 as the most shocking result of 2019. The Cowboys were outgained in that game by 148 yards, but fortunate to be +3 in turnovers. Wins over Texas State and Idaho weren't impressive either as the Pokes were outgained in both of those games (Idaho is a FCS team now) and again trailed by DD in the first half both times. The following week, they trailed Tulsa by DD in the 2H, but a late rally was able to sneak them under the number (+3.5) in a 24-21 loss. Again they were outgained. Then came the UNLV game where the Cowboys did look good, but again the opponent will more than likely have a new coach next year. Wyoming has yet to lose the TO battle in any game this year, so that's another area where they've been fortunate. 

San Diego State won its turnover battle (+4) last week in a 24-10 win over Colorado State. Often, we might call that a lucky win then, but not with this Aztecs' defense. SDSU has allowed fewer than 330 yds in all four of its wins this season. Their only loss came at home to Utah State, a game they fell in an early 20-3 hole due to a pick-six. Even then, they fought back and lost by only six points (23-17). That's the last time they played at home and after tonight, they won't be at home again until November 9th! So that should be a motivating factor. Somehow, the Aztecs are 0 for their last 8 ATS as home favorites. Look for that streak to end here as the defense has not given up more than 16 points in any game this year (excludes pick-six vs. Utah State). 8* San Diego State

8* Nebraska (7:30 ET): While Nebraska is dealing w/ an injury at the QB position, the genesis of this play is that we simply do not think Minnesota is very good. We certainly have the Golden Gophers as the weakest of the 14 remaining unbeatens. For the sake of comparison, we don't even have Minnesota rated among the Top 50 in our power rankings. All but three of the 14 unbeaten teams are inside our top 35. That includes the top eight. So once again, we see not all records are created equal. In the case of the Gophers, they've got four wins by seven points or less. So they've been extremely fortunate so far. Nebraska would have killed for such good fortune last season when it suffered an amazing five losses by five points or less. We smell a reversal of fortune Saturday night in this Big 10 matchup. Take the points. 

Minnesota turned in - by far - its most complete performance last week. They beat Illinois 40-17, led by Rodney Smith's career-high 211 yards rushing. When all was said and done, the Gophers finished w/ 332 yds on the ground. Nebraska's run defense has basically been the opposite of "stout" in Big 10 play so far, but they still are allowing only 4.0 YPC. They gave up 157 yds rushing last week vs. Northwestern, but that was on 41 attempts. Also, Minnesota had failed to run for even 100 yds on the ground in its previous two games and had not exceeded 150 in any game before facing Illinois. Let's not forget that the Gophers needed a late TD just to beat South Dakota State in the opener. The Fresno State game went to double overtime and then it was a TD in the final minute to beat Georgia Southern. Despite Purdue losing both its starting QB and top WR on the same play (!) in the 1Q, they were still able to stay within seven of the Gophers two weeks ago. 

The "elements" are expected to be a factor Saturday night at TCF Bank Stadium where temperatures are expected to be the coldest for any kickoff in the history of the stadium. Both teams are saying the right things and that they'll be ready. Still, this very well could end up being a low-scoring game where points are at a premium. (Like Nebraska's 13-10 win over N'western last week). That makes having the underdog feel like the right call. The other storyline for this game is the Cornhuskers' QB situation. Adrian Martinez did travel, but it's unclear if he'll be starting due to a knee injury suffered last week. Noah Vedral, a transfer from UCF (came w/ HC Scott Frost), would start if Martinez can't go. Vedral led the drive that ended w/ the GW FG vs. N'western last week. Last year in Lincoln, the Cornhuskers destroyed the Gophers 53-28 for their 1st win under Frost. 8* Nebraska

8* Kentucky (7:30 ET): UK has lost its last three games, all in the SEC. Not that we didn't expect the Wildcats to regress this year, but they suffered only three defeats ALL of last season en route to their best record since 1977! Two of the three losses this year have come on the road and in the last one (24-7 @ South Carolina), QB Sawyer Smith was clearly not himself (went 11 of 32 for just 90 yards!). It was later revealed that Smith came into the game banged up (shoulder). So the open date certainly came at an opportune time for Kentucky and now they come out of it w/ a favorable spot against an Arkansas team that may be the worst in the conference. We'll lay the points in this matchup as the Wildcats are due for a win and a big one at that. 

Arkansas also has three losses, though only two of them came in SEC play. The third was a terrible misfire against San Jose State as three-touchdown favorites in Fayatteville. The Razorbacks defense has been routinely shredded this year and will be a big step down from UK has faced so far in conference play. You do have to hand it to the Hogs as they were surprisingly competitive in a 31-27 loss at Texas A&M two weeks ago. They easily covered as 23.5-point underdogs, but that also was at a neutral setting (Cowboys Stadium). In the last 10 "true" road games, Arkansas has gone 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS, including a two touchdown loss at Ole Miss on September 7th, their only "true" roadie of the year so far.

Being in different division in an expanded conference, these schools are not common opponents. They last met in 2012. Arkansas has not visited Lexington since 2008! While the perception that the West is the stronger of the two SEC divisions is absolutely true, don't tell that to the Razorbacks, who are just 3-9 SU vs. the East since 2013 w/ five consecutive losses. Their last cross-division win came in 2016 against Florida and that was at home. The last road win over a SEC East foe was 2015 at Tennessee. It's been almost a full month since the last time Kentucky played at home and that game saw them lead (still) unbeaten Florida into the 4Q. It was a 1-pt game into the final minute and the main reason UK lost at all was four turnovers. We project this to be a double-digit win. 8* Kentucky

8* North Texas (7:00 ET): North Texas is a team that came into 2019 w/ aspirations of winning C-USA's West Division. After all, it was something they'd accomplished just two short years ago w/ 7-1 SU record in conference play. Their only regular season loss was to eventual champ FAU, who beat them again in the Title Game. The Mean Green didn't win the division LY, but still went 9-4 SU overall in what was considered another successful season. But this year's squad has disappointed thus far, most recently w/ an embarrassing 46-25 loss two weeks ago to a Houston team that had just seen a number of its best players redshirt. The loss was at home too! It was the Mean Green's third loss overall and second by 20 or more. Coming out of a bye, we're expecting better this week as they visit Hattiesburg to play Southern Miss. Take the points in a game North Texas probably did not expect to be an underdog. 

Southern Miss is also coming off a bye here. The Golden Eagles are 3-2 w/ mostly predictable results. They were blown out in two games vs. SEC teams (Miss State, Alabama) but easily handled the two bottom-feeders on the schedule (Alcorn State, UTEP). The only game they've been involved in that was expected to be competitive was at Troy and USM won a shootout, 47-42, as three-point underdogs. The Golden Eagles also had aspirations of winning the division this year, so this shapes up to be a key game. They've been the more "consistent" team (compared to North Texas), but just so happen to have pulled an upset while North Texas suffered the outright loss to Houston as 7.5-pt chalk. 

North Texas has beaten Southern Miss three straight years, including two upsets. Last year was a 30-7 beatdown in Denton despite 300+ yds passing from USM QB Jack Abraham. Something to note from that loss to Houston is that North Texas finished w/ a 456-359 edge in total yds. They got shell-shocked early, falling into an early 14-0 hole. After fighting their way back into the game, Houston would use TWO special teams TD's to pull away for good. Looking at North Texas' other losses, one was by only six points at Cal, whom they also outgained. Losing by 22 is never good, but the 49-27 loss to SMU may not be as bad as originally thought given the Mustangs are still undefeated. The Mean Green have underachieved a little, but it's not too late to turn things around. They have a QB in Mason Fine that has more passing yards than any active QB in FBS! 8* North Texas 

10* San Jose State (4:00 ET): San Jose State seems to have "turned a corner" in recent weeks. They went out to Arkansas and delivered a shocking 31-24 upset as 20.5-point underdogs. Then last week, they were favored by a TD, something we haven't seen in a long time from them in forever - at least in conference play. The Spartans handled their business, beating New Mexico 32-21 as they used a fast start and six Lobos' turnovers to fuel their third straight ATS victory. Now they head to Nevada to face a Wolf Pack team licking its wounds after suffering a humiliating 54-3 defeat here in Reno, at the hands of Hawaii, two weeks ago. That's a result we remember quite well as we had Hawaii. We'll fade them again here as our numbers indicate SJSU is the better team on the field. 

Obviously, having had a week off, there's going to be an expectation that Nevada will be "motivated" to atone for what could be the most embarrassing loss in recent program history. Absolutely nothing went right against Hawaii, a game in which the Wolf Pack were outgained 512-203 and were -3 in turnovers. Coming out of the bye motivated sounds logical and nice, but what if the team simply isn't that good? As stated in our Hawaii-Nevada analysis, we were already pretty wary of a team that miraculously beat Purdue, lost to Oregon 77-6 and only beat FCS Weber State by six (19-13). Even a 37-21 win over lowly UTEP saw the Wolf Pack tied (21-21) in the 3Q. Then there is the QB situation as HC Jay Norvell has elected to start Malik Henry this week. Henry has never started a FBS game before. 

A first time starter going against a San Jose State defense that has 11 interceptions seems like a mismatch. It also might be that San Jose State is the more motivated side coming into this game. They've lost 9 of 10 to Nevada in a rivalry that goes all the way back to 1899! But they were close to winning last year and easily covered as 14-point underdogs. It was a two-point game in the 4Q. SJSU is a much better team this year having already tripled LY's win total. They've NEVER won a MWC road game in 2+ seasons under HC Brent Brennan, so again, we don't see Nevada necessarily being the more "motivated" side this week. Spartans QB Jose Love, now a senior, threw for over 400 yards against New Mexico and is completing nearly 62% of his pass attempts this year w/ only one interception. SJSU is 7-2 ATS the L9 times the line has been three points or less. 10* San Jose State

10* South Carolina (12:00 ET): For years, these two SEC East school would seemingly trade wins in what was a pretty even rivalry. But like 99% of the country, South Carolina is no longer at the same level as Georgia, who has become one of the elite programs in all of college football. UGA has now beaten South Carolina four years in a row w/ LY's 41-17 win being the most lopsided win in Columbia since 1971 and their most points EVER scored there. But even though the Dawgs are #3 in the country and have dominated the rivalry recently, not all history is against South Carolina this week. From 2010-2014, they upset Georgia three times. And then two years ago here in Athens, they easily covered a spread similar to this one in what was mostly a competitive game. We're going to take the points here, noting the Gamecocks are 8-2 ATS their L10 tries as underdogs as well as 11-5 ATS their L16 road games. 

South Carolina is off a bye here. That's helpful, especially for freshman QB Ryan Hilinski, who has been dealing w/ an elbow injury and had to miss the team's last game against Kentucky. But despite his absence, the Gamecocks still won the game easily, 24-7 as 3.5-pt home favorites. The defense was 2:32 away from a shutout when it allowed a meaningless TD. Hillinski is now back and should have some confidence, having already thrown for 324 yards and two touchdowns against Alabama in what was just his 2nd career start. Remember that Hilinksi wasn't even supposed to be the starter this year, but senior Jake Bentley broke his foot in the opener vs. North Carolina. That was a game South Carolina led 20-9 going into the 4Q. Even with a 3rd string QB, they dominated Kentucky two weeks ago, finishing w/ a 387-212 edge in total yds. So this team is probably better than you think.

When betting an underdog like this, you hope for a game where the favorite plays it conservative and at a slow pace. Enter Georgia, who plays at one of the slowest paces in all of College Football. The Bulldogs like to run the ball a lot and are quite successful at it, but South Carolina's defense is pretty effective at stopping it as well, allowing just 3.8 yards per carry. So don't look for Georgia to have much opportunity to "open the game up." The Dawgs trailed late in the 1H LW @ Tennessee before taking over in the second half. They won't be able to do that here against a better team. After beating Notre Dame and Tennessee, this might be a "flat spot" for the favorite. 10* South Carolina

10* Miami FL (8:00 ET): This is the classic "unranked team favored over a Top 25 opponent" where the oddsmakers are blatantly tipping their hand, but the public rarely picks up on it. The reality is that there are 8-10 teams every year considerably better than the rest of the country. But after that, there isn't much difference between #11 and #35. Once you get out of the Top 15, the difference often gets really minimal, especially after factoring in homefield advantage. Virginia is a team that finds itself ranked #20 right now, but they barely crack our top 40. Miami is actually ahead of them in our power rankings, so we'll gladly lay the short number here for this Friday night matchup. Traditionally, when an unranked team is favored over a Top 25 opponent, they cover. 

It was just two Saturdays ago that we made clear our view of this Virginia team. They were #18 and taking on a Notre Dame team that was ranked 10th. Despite the relative "closeness" of the rankings, the Fighting Irish were giving double digits. We laid it. It was a little lucky, but Notre Dame got the cover thanks in large part to five UVA turnovers and won 35-20. It was the Cavaliers' third straight ATS loss. They'd been outgained in wins over Florida State and Old Dominion, gaining only 244 total yds against the latter. I'm just not much of a believer in Bronco Mendenhall's team. From a historical perspective, Friday games have not been kind to Virginia. They've lost 10 of the last 12. Also, no player on the current roster has ever won two straight ACC road games. Back in Week 1, the Cavs won 30-14 at Pitt. The last year where the program had multiple ACC road wins was 2011.

Miami is just 2-3 SU. Outside of a 63-0 beatdown over FCS Bethune-Cookman, "The U" has hardly looked good. But all three of those losses have been by seven points, one of them to a Top 10 team (Florida). We've still got faith in the team. HC Manny Diaz, who was the DC last year under Mark Richt, has announced he'll be taking more of a "hands on" role on the defensive side of the ball this week. On offense, N'Kosi Perry will start at QB in place of the injured Jarren Williams. Fine by us as Perry was the one who very nearly led an improbable comeback against Virginia Tech last week. Williams threw three 1Q INT's as the 'Canes dug themselves an early 28-0 hole. Perry came in and threw for a career-high 422 yards & 4 TD's. Miami still lost 35-28 even w/ a 563-337 total yardage edge. They just couldn't overcome a -5 TO margin. They won't be digging themselves that kind of hole again and we look for them to win a "statement" game. 10* Miami FL

10* Texas State (9:15 ET): Texas State hasn't had much luck beating LA Monroe (lost to them three straight years), but it's a new season and the game is in San Marcos Thursday night. The Bobcats didn't have a prayer of winning either of their two road games this year (at Texas A&M and SMU), but they've played relatively well at home.  They actually come into this game on a two-game win streak, having beaten Georgia State 37-34 and FCS Nicholls State 24-3. The home record easily could be 3-0 as they outgained Wyoming 444-293, but lost a DD lead thanks to three turnovers. Look for the Bobcats to likely snap that three-year losing streak Thursday as we'll take the points. 

LA Monroe also comes in at 2-3. Like Texas State, they won their first Sun Belt Game (30-17 over South Alabama) and their only other win was against a FCS team (Grambling). But the Warhawks are 0-3 ATS the L3 games as they were -14.5 vs. South Alabama and have been blown out twice. After only losing by a single point at Florida State in Week 2, 45-44, there appeared to be some promise here. But we still remember what happened in Monroe's last road game as we made the unfortunate decision of taking them plus the +19. They lost 72-20 at Iowa State then two Saturdays ago they were blown out again, this time 52-33 at home by Memphis. 

Something that's a little interesting here is that these teams came into the year as two of the three most experienced teams in the entire country! This is a huge game in both team's hopes for improving and the bottom line is we feel the better team is the one getting points. While LA Monroe has already traveled to face two P5 teams, the fact that their defense has given up 45+ points three times is not encouraging. The Warhawks are already 0-2 ATS as favorites this season, leaving them at 3-7 ATS their L10 as chalk. The win over Georgia State snapped a stunning 12-game losing streak in conference home games for Texas State. They are hungry to now make it two wins in a row! The Bobcats have covered 5 of 7 against teams with losing records. 10* Texas State

10* New England (8:20 ET): The Giants have covered five straight against the Patriots, all as underdogs, including a couple of very famous Super Bowl upsets. Also, the underdog is a perfect 5-0 ATS on Thursday Night Football this year. But that's pretty much all the G-Men have going for them heading into this week's clash in Foxboro. It's just another year where New England is pacing the league. Right now, they're 5-0 and outscoring opponents by more than 20 points per game. Only one of those five games was decided by less than 16 points and it was on the road against a Buffalo team that has a very good defense. Our projections have the Patriots winning this game by three touchdowns. 

There had been a growing sense of optimism in the Giants' locker room after rookie Daniel Jones replaced the washed-up Eli Manning and led the team to two victories. The first was a huge comeback against Tampa Bay. Then a 24-3 win over the lousy Redskins. But then the G-Men ran into Minnesota last week and suffered an 18-point loss (28-10) at home. Jones wasn't very good against the Vikings, throwing for just 182 yards, and the team was outgained by more than a 2:1 margin (490-211). A big problem for Jones this week is that he's going to be w/o RB Saquon Barkley, Barkley's backup Wayne Gallman, WR Sterling Shepard and TE Evan Engram. They figure to REALLY struggle to move the ball in this contest. A short week doesn't help.

Now that you're done reading the injury list for the Giants, let me now remind you that they are facing the Patriots here! The New England defense didn't even give up a touchdown until the 4th game and has allowed only two the entire season. Bill Belichick has a history of making rookie QB's look bad and Jones is likely to be the latest installment of that trend. The Patriots have a huge edge defensively in this game, not just because of their own exploits but also b/c of the Giants' ineptitude on that side of the ball. While the Pats allow just 238.4 YPG on 4.4 yards per play, the Giants allow 409 YPG on 6.8 YPP. This could easily turn into a 30-0 type game. 10* New England

8* Louisiana (8:00 ET): This is a battle of unbeatens, though of a different kind. Appalachian State is unbeaten in the "classic sense," in that they're 4-0 straight up, one of 16 teams left in the country w/o a SU loss. Meanwhile, Louisiana is the ONLY team left in the country that's unbeaten at the betting window as they come in at 5-0 ATS. We're proud to say that we were on this Ragin Cajun team a few weeks ago and while this Sun Belt rivalry has not gone well for them in year's past (0-6 all-time vs. Appalachian State), we're going to call for things to be different this time around. Go w/ the home team! 

It was three Saturdays ago when we backed Louisiana as a three-point dog at Ohio. They went in and beat Frank Solich's Bobcats 45-25, which is a very impressive win. Ohio had previously won 10 in a row at home before the Ragin Cajuns came to Athens. We should have followed up that big win w/ another play on Louisiana, but were a little "gun-shy" about laying points as they were playing on the road for a second straight week and facing a rested opponent. But despite a less than favorable situation, the Ragin Cajuns still managed to go in and beat Georgia State 37-24. In retrospect, we should have listened to the numbers. Our numbers again indicate they are being undervalued in this matchup and we will listen this time. 

What makes Louisiana so difficult to defend is that they have a three-headed rushing attack. Ragas, Mitchell and Calais have combined for over 1200 yards already and 17 touchdowns. All three are averaging at least 6.0 yards per carry. For the season, the Ragin Cajuns are averaging an incredible 314 yds rushing per game. Appalachian State's run defense isn't terrible, but they still allow 165 YPG and have given up 36.3 PPG the L3 weeks. The only team to beat Louisiana this year was Mississippi State. This is a huge revenge game for Louisiana as they lost twice to the Mountaineers last season, by 10 in the regular season and then by 11 in the SBC Championship Game. But both those games were played in Boone and were more even then the final scores indicate. This time, Louisiana gets App State at home and gets the job done. 8* Louisiana

9* Denver (4:05 ET): The Broncos' defense has yet to force a turnover, ranks near the bottom of the league in sacks and just loss DE Bradley Chubb to a season-ending ACL injury. Not the start defensive wizard Vic Fangio was looking for in his first head coaching gig in the league. Denver is 0-4 despite being competitive in all four games. While one of four 0-4 teams in the league right now, the Broncos are definitely better than the other three and better than their record. They get another chance at giving Fangio his first win this week as they visit the Chargers. This is a spot where we want to take the points as the Chargers have been hit even harder by injuries and aren't the same team they were a season ago.

The Chargers are off a 30-10 win, but it came against Miami, so that doesn't hold much water. RB Melvin Gordon is set to return this week, but as alluded to above, the real story in LA is who WON'T be on the field for the Chargers. Already the team has had to place 10 players on IR, three of them starters. (The tight end position has been hit the hardest). In addition, there are four more starters that aren't 100% and could have to miss this game. Two are starting receivers, so Philip Rivers may not have anyone to throw to Sunday. On the defensive side of the ball, we know DE Melvin Ingram is out. Other than Miami, we just don't see this Chargers team being able to beat any opponent by any kind of margin right now. 

The Broncos are not only 0-4 SU, but they've lost eight straight going back to last season. But under Fangio, they've at least been competitive. Two of the losses have come by two points, including last week's to Jacksonville, which was decided on a last second field goal. It was the 2nd time this year Denver lost on the final play. They've actually gained the same number of total yards as their four opponents. Honestly, we give them a great shot at the outright upset here. The road team did win both meetings last season. We "buy low" on a Broncos team that is "due" for some good luck. 9* Denver 

10* Tennessee (1:00 ET): The Bills may very well end up being a vastly improved team, at least record-wise, by season's end. But one side of the ball can only carry you so far. For the Bills, that one side of the ball is a defense that just held the Patriots to 16 points (no TD's after 1st quarter) and 224 total yards. But offense is a real concern here w/ second year QB Josh Allen unlikely to play this week. His replacement is Matt Barkley and if that sounds bad, it should look even worse. As much as the drafting of Allen was questioned, the dropoff to Barkley is pretty severe. The Bills didn't score after Allen left last week's game w/ a concussion. Even if Allen were to play this week, there's the question of whether or not he's 100% and the truth of the matter is we still aren't sold on him as he had three interceptions last week and a completion percentage below 50%. 

Now lets talk about Tennessee. While we faded them in Week 3 (lost outright in Jacksonville), we were all aboard their train last week as they went into Atlanta and upset the Falcons 24-10. They dominated from the outset as well w/ Marcus Mariota throwing three 1st Half TD passes. It didn't even matter that they didn't score a single point after halftime. That was Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense they held in check too. Stopping this Bills offense - whether it's Allen or Barkley at the helm - will be much easier. This Titans defense is #4 in the league in scoring (one spot higher than the Bills) and will be up against a Bills offense averaging only 19.0 PPG. 

The strength of the Bills offense is running the ball, but the problem w/ that is the Titans have done a great job at stopping the run the L2 wks, allowing just 88 and 58 yards to the Jags and Falcons respectively. This is an addition to having a pass defense whose numbers looked great before Ryan attempted 53 passes against them last week. Another huge edge for the Titans here is that they take very good care of the football (just one turnover). Buffalo, on the other hand, already has two games w/ four TO's. No matter who the Bills QB is here, we have the Titans winning this game by at least a touchdown. Another key is the Titans offensive line will be bolstered by the return of Taylor Lewan, who was suspended the first four games. 10* Tennessee

10* NY Jets (1:00 ET): With a 30-14 loss to the Patriots two weeks ago, Jets HC Adam Gase has now lost nearly one-third of the games in his coaching career (17 of 52) by at least two touchdowns. His current team is 0-3, certainly not the start that they - or I - had imagined. The Jets were on my "most improved" list for 2019, but after blowing a 16-0 lead against Buffalo in Week 1, that quickly went out the window. QB health has been a major issue here as Sam Darnold has missed the L2 games w/ mono. His backup, Trevor Siemian, is out for the year w/ a broken ankle. That left Luke Falk, a former practice squad player, to start the third game. While it was a 16-point loss to New England, the Jets did cover the number (were +23) despite not even scoring an offensive touchdown (scored one on defense & special teams). 

If this all sounds rough to you, it is. But it's not dire. The Jets had their bye last week. While having a bye week that early in the season isn't always ideal, it probably was for the Jets as it allowed Falk to get some much needed reps for the Week 5 opponent, Philadelphia. There's no sugarcoating how bad the Jets offense looked against the Patriots. But that was to be expected going against one of the top defenses in the league, with a third string QB, on a short week no less (Jets had just played on MNF). Now, with added rest, they are getting to face an Eagles defense that is a little suspect. While the Eagles did win last Thursday (we had 'em), upsetting the Packers in Green Bay, they did give up 6.6 yards per play. 

In fact, the Eagles were outagined by almost a full yard per play in that outright win last Thursday. It was a much needed win (why we backed them plus the points!) after starting 1-2 w/ a home loss to the Lions. But they did get outgained by over 150 yards. Green Bay had a chance to tie late, but Aaron Rodgers was picked off in the end zone. That was one of two critical Packers' turnovers in the game, the first leading to an easy score by the Eagles (got the ball in the red zone). I'm not saying that the Jets are gonna win this game, but they most likely won't. But it's a big spread for a desperate team coming off a bye. Winless teams playing on the road, off a bye, are on a 17-7 ATS run. We'd have the spread closer to 10 points. While Falk only threw for 98 yards in his debut, Carson Wentz threw for only 160 last week. Wentz is just 1-7 ATS his L8 home games. Take the points. 10* NY Jets

8* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): Oddsmakers clearly overadjusted for the Drew Brees injury as the Saints are 2-0 (SU and ATS) as underdogs with Teddy Bridgewater as the starting QB. Maybe we shouldn't be surprised. Bridgewater is now 25-7 ATS as a starter, the best such mark for any QB w/ at least 15 career starts. But now he's a favorite for the first time this year. He and the Saints will be facing a Bucs team that is not only vastly improved on BOTH sides of the ball, but has also already pulled two outright upsets on the road. The Bucs could easily be 3-1 had it not been for blowing a DD lead against the Giants two weeks ago. They could be 4-0 had it not been a slew of turnovers in the opener vs. SF. Take the points. 

While the Saints are 2-0 SU/ATS with Bridgewater starting, by no means have they been dominant. In fact, they were outgained 514-265 by Seattle, needing multiple non-offensive TD's (1 punt return, 1 fumble return) to win 33-27. We had them as our *10* Game of the Month last week as a rare home dog against the undefeated Cowboys. They won that game 12-10 despite not scoring a single TD. So with Bridgewater starting, the Saints have managed just three offensive TD's in two games, one of which started inside the opponent's 30-yard line. Bridgewater has failed to throw for even 200 yards in either game. Anything close to a similar offensive effort will obviously not get it done as a favorite. 

The Bucs clearly didn't have any offensive issues last week as they hung 55 in a shocking upset of the Rams. QB Jameis Winston has gone over 350 yards passing in B2B games. While the numbers from the last five quarters may indicate something different, the defense has also gotten better w/ Todd Bowles as the coordinator. They've been particularly effective at stopping the run where they allow just 59 yards per game on 2.9 yards per carry. That's #1 in the league! The underdog has won all four Tampa Bay games this year and we'll look for that trend to continue. They won here in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome last season. 8* Tampa Bay

10* Stanford (10:30 ET): Things may not be looking so hot down on "The Farm" right now, but we like the number we're getting w/ the Cardinal this week in a "Pac 12 After Dark" special vs. Washington. Despite starting their backup QB last week, Stanford scored a season-high 31 pts last week. Granted, it was against Oregon State, but I'll still call it an "encouraging" sign as it came on the road. Davis Mills will get the nod under center again this week (as K.J. Costello is still injured), but this time it's at home. Washington is the better team, but Stanford is still a "tough out" here in Palo Alto, regardless of what happened two weeks ago vs. Oregon. Also note that this number is about a full TD higher than the Oregon game, even though we have the Ducks rated higher than the Huskies. Take the points. 

Despite losing to Oregon 21-6, the Stanford defense allowed just 320 total yds in that contest. They've allowed an average of just 14 points and 265 yards at home so far w/ both games coming against P5 opposition. It's been a tough schedule thus far for Stanford w/ three games coming against teams we have ranked in the Top 25 (UCF, USC, Oregon). They did jump out to a 21-0 lead LW vs. Oregon State before needing a last second FG for the 31-28 win. The Cardinal are 45-9 SU at home under HC David Shaw and have had UW's number through the years, taking 10 of the last 14 meetings including the L5 at home - by an average of 18.4 PPG. Those were some better Stanford teams in that mix, but it's also very rare to get a number like this on them at home under Shaw. 

This will be the second week in a row Washington gets to face a backup QB as LW they were up against USC's third-stringer and won by two touchdowns (28-14). That was at home, however, and total yardage was basically dead even. Shaw is a perfect 4-0 ATS as a home dog at Stanford including an upset of the Huskies two years ago. There has been only one time under Shaw that Stanford has gotten more points than it has here and that was against Oregon in 2012 when they pulled an outright upset. Before that, the last time they were a home dog of 15 pts or more was the infamous upset of USC under Jim Harbaugh (2007). This is a straight value play as our numbers indicate the spread should be 9.5. Look for the Cardinal defense to keep them in this one.  10* Stanford

8* Texas (3:30 ET): Historically speaking, this is not a good spot for the 11th ranked Longhorns as they are just 2-7 ATS their L9 tries as a conference favorite and have Oklahoma on deck (a spot in which they've failed to cover six of the last seven years). However, they are coming off a bye and facing a team that is nowhere near as good as its 3-1 SU record would seem to indicate. West Virginia has struggled to beat the likes of James Madison and Kansas, needing late scores and turnovers to get by both. And even though they did pull an upset over NC State, the Mountaineers are still just 2-8 SU, 3-6-1 ATS in the underdog role the L3 seasons. We feel Texas should be immune to the RRR lookahead this year and have its way w/ a subpar WVU team. Lay the points.

Homefield advantage hasn't mattered the last three times these teams have met. The road team has won all three, including WVU 42-41 in Austin last season. The fact that the revenge angle is in play here is yet another reason to override Texas' history in this situation. We're also willing to look past the injuries in the Longhorns' secondary due to the fact WVU is last in the Big 12 in offense and has really struggled to get the ball down the field. On the flip side, Texas QB Sam Ehlinger has looked great so far. He has 15 TD passes and just one interception while throwing for 309 YPG. The Longhorns have scored at least 36 points in every game and gone over 500 yards in each of the last three. 

West Virginia is a 3-1 team in name only as we have them rated as the second worst team in the Big 12. Last week, they were a little lucky to beat the worst team in the conference (Kansas) as they were outgained, but wound up +2 in turnovers. Even more damning is that in the season opener, they were outgained by FCS James Madison (WVU didn't even gain 300 yards!) and were tied going into the 4Q (ended up +3 in TO's). Yes, there was the upset of 44-27 of NC State here in Morgantown two weeks ago. But the week before that, the Mountaineers got slaughtered 38-7 by a Missouri team we have rated slightly below Texas in our own power rankings. The Longhorns are simply the much better team here and should win big. 8* Texas

10* Notre Dame (3:30 ET): This may sound crazy (not to mention uncharacteristic!), but we're going to lay what is easily the biggest number on the board Saturday w/ Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish treated us well last week, finishing strong to get the cover as DD chalk against Virginia in what was a Top 25 matchup. But if you read our analysis, you know we "scoffed" at the notion of the Cavaliers being a Top 25 team. Things played out the way we expected as the Irish ended up winning 35-20 thanks to a superb defensive effort in the second half (shut UVA out). While we may not regard Virginia as being a Top 25 team, they're still certainly a competent opponent. The same cannot be said for this week's Notre Dame opponent, Bowling Green, who is one of the worst teams in the entire country right now.

We learned our lesson w/ BG early as we made the mistake of taking them in Week 2 against Kansas State. They were getting 24.5 points in that contest, but that hardly mattered as they ended up losing 52-0. It's been all downhill since w/ last week's 62-20 loss to Kent State marking a new low for the program. The Falcons defense permitted 375 yards - both rushing and passing - for a total of 750 allowed. This was against a team that is a 35-point underdog this week (granted, against Wisconsin) and was coming off a 39-point loss. We've still got Kent State rated as one of the bottom 20 teams in the country, but that might as well be the top 10 compared to Bowling Green, who is in our bottom three. This is about as one-sided a matchup as you'll see all season. 

Notre Dame's defense forced five turnovers and allowed just four rushing yards last week against Virginia. Unless they simply don't care this week, it is difficult to see how Bowling Green is going to move the ball in this game. Obviously, Notre Dame still needs to score a lot of points to cover though. But remember they dropped 66 in a win over New Mexico here in South Bend back in Week 2. They can easily score a similar number here, given BG just allowed 62 points and 750 total yards to a bad MAC team last week. Notre Dame just gone done facing two very good defenses - Georgia and Virginia - so expect QB Ian Book to have a performance similar to that New Mexico game where he threw for 360 yards and five touchdowns. Yes, this spread is not high enough! 10* Notre Dame

8* Maryland (12:00 ET): The bloom has definitely fallen off the rose in College Park where just three weeks ago Maryland fans believed their team was set to compete w/ the heavyweights of the Big 10. But two bad losses later and the Terrapins are scrambling. First they were upset on the road by Temple, losing 20-17 as 5.5-point chalk. Then came last Friday's embarrassment at the hands of Penn State, 59-0, in a home game where seating was expanded to accommodate what was a turnaway crowd. It's definitely now hard to rectify what we've seen in the last two games compared to the first two, but fortunately for Maryland they are drawing the perfect opponent for a "get well" game this week, that being Rutgers, whose issues run far deeper. Lay the points. 

Rutgers has played two Big 10 games so far and been outscored 82-0! Last week's 52-0 loss at the hands of Michigan cost both HC Chris Ash and OC John McNulty their jobs. It's tough to defend Ash as he won just eight games in three-plus seasons here and was 3-26 in conference play (all three wins coming in 2017). But the decision to fire him seemed to be hastily made and certainly puts interim Nunzio Campanile in a really tough spot. Campanile not only is taking over the head coaching job, but the play calling as well. This is someone who was a high school coach just 18 months ago and a tight ends coach as recently as last week! Not only have the Scarlet Knights been shutout in both Big 10 games so far, they've gained just 277 yards TOTAL! Tough spot. 

On paper, laying double digits on the road w/ a team that just lost 59-0 doesn't read well. But this spot seems tailor-made for a Maryland blowout. Beating up on bad teams is what's going to get them bowl eligible and you have to remember they were ranked in the Top 25 three weeks ago. They scored 142 points in wins over Howard and Syracuse, the latter we were on. Rutgers lost 17 games by 20+ points under Ash and don't figure to get much better anytime soon. After having the run game stifled last week, Maryland should be able to run wild in this game against a defense that is giving up nearly 200 rush yards per contest. Last year, the Terps beat Rutgers by 27. You wouldn't know it judging by the L2 games, but this year's squad is better under 1st year coach Mike Locksley. They'll be eager to rebound after being embarrassed on national TV last week while Rutgers is a program in shambles right now. 8* Maryland

8* Wisconsin (12:00 ET): Interesting scenario here. We've already laid one big number w/ Wisconsin against a MAC team (Central Michigan) and that wound up being a 61-0 win. We've also previously laid a big number against this Kent State team (-36 w/ Auburn) and that ended up being a 55-16 win. With Wisconsin every bit as good as Auburn and Kent State every bit as bad as Central Michigan, this number makes sense. What doesn't is that it's started to trickle down a bit. Kent State is just 1-18 SU its last 19 games vs. current Big 10 teams and it should be noted the one win came against Rutgers, who was in the Big East at the time. The 18 losses have been by an average of over 30 PPG. Wisconsin is very much for real this year. Lay the big number. 

Coming off a very impressive beatdown of Michigan, it was going to be next to impossible for Wisconsin to come out w/ the same intensity against Northwestern last weekend here in Camp Randall. While they failed to cover the 24.5-point spread, they nevertheless did win 24-15, a game where the defense allowed just over 3.0 yards per play. The fact they were slightly outgained by N'western is misleading in the sense they ran 22 fewer plays. The offense will obviously have to play a lot better this week and should against a Kent State defense that was gashed for 467 yards on the ground by Auburn two weeks ago. In case you forgot, the Badgers have RB Jonathan Taylor, who has rushed for 100+ yards in nine consecutive games. That's the longest active streak in the country entering Saturday. 

Conversely, Kent State is going to struggle to move the ball in this game. Yes, the Golden Flashes did just go for 62 points and a school-record 750 yards last week. But that was against one of the worst teams in the entire country, Bowling Green, who is a 46.5-point underdog this week. Now the Flashes face the #1 ranked defense in the country that is giving up just 7.3 points and 192.3 yards per game. The Badgers defense has actually scored nearly as many TD's (3) as it has allowed (4). Opponents are converting just 15.5% on third-downs against Wisconsin, the lowest percentage in the nation. Needless to say, it is going to be a rude return to Madison for Kent State HC Sean Lewis, who was a QB and TE here over a decade ago. 8* Wisconsin

10* South Alabama (7:30 ET): I guess I can understand why South Alabama is a double digit dog here. After all, every time they've faced a FBS opponent this year, they've lost by at least 13 pts. (Their only win was 37-14 over Jackson State). The Jaguars have also lost five straight years to Georgia Southern, failing to cover the spread in all five games. All five were decided by at least 15 points. Why should you expect anything different Thursday night? Well, Georgia Southern has also yet to beat a FBS opponent this year! They aren't exactly "favorite material" (if you know what I mean), especially when it comes to laying double digits on the road. Take the points here. 

Georgia Southern certainly failed to impress me last Saturday as they lost 37-24 at home to Louisiana. We've come away impressed w/ Louisiana in the past, but they were playing on the road for a second straight week while Georgia Southern was off a bye. It's a spot you'd expect the Eagles to play better in. Instead, it was a game they never led (despite being +2 in TO's) and got outgained 440-252. The only team the Eagles have beaten this year is Maine and that was by just eight points (26-18) at home. Their other two losses were against Power 5 opponents (LSU, Minnesota) on the road. After winning 10 games a year ago, Ga Southern definitely was a candidate to regress in 2019, but it appears said regression could be more severe than anticipated. 

South Alabama may represent a steep drop in class from a P5 opponent, but we still see them being a "tough out" in this spot, despite the poor history w/ Ga Southern. The Jaguars have taken their lumps so far this year, but they did cover against Nebraska (lost by only 14 in Lincoln) and then last week at La Monroe. It was a 7-pt game LW heading into the 4Q and USA actaully had a 24-18 edge in first downs over ULM. After playing three of the first five games on the road, including B2B weeks, the Jaguars should be pretty motivated for a Thursday night home game on ESPNU. They are 7-2 ATS the L9 times they've been off B2B losses. There was just one time LY where Ga Southern was favored by more than this on the road and we faded them in the spot. They were facing a bad Texas State team and only won the game 15-13. Same thing here. 10* South Alabama

10* Pittsburgh (8:15 ET): A battle of 0-3 teams is certainly not what the ESPN brass had expected here, at least certainly not from the Pittsburgh side of things. But the Steelers are definitely reeling in the wake of Ben Roethlisberger’s season ending injury. Ironically though, the only game Big Ben will end up starting and finishing this year was the team’s worst to date, a 33-3 loss to the Patriots. Losses the last two weeks have both been close, coming by a total of six points. While the total yardage count from last week indicates the Black & Gold were outplayed rather drastically by the 49ers, we expect them to bounce back this week. A loss to the Bengals would certainly be a new low in the Steel City. Lay the points.

The Bengals have also suffered two close losses to start the year, both of theirs coming on the road. They lost by only 1 at Seattle and then by just 4 LW in Buffalo. In between, they were smashed at home by San Francisco, losing 41-13 while giving up 572 yards in the process. Unlike with Pittsburgh, Cincinnati was not expected to be good this year. They were the consensus choice for last place in the AFC North and that’s where we still see them. While they’ve fought hard in the first two road games, that doesn’t necessarily mean they will this third time around. 

The Steelers have dominated this division rivalry, beating the Bengals eight straight times and 11 of the last 12. Getting to face Mason Rudolph instead of Big Ben this time, the Bengals probably feel that “this time could be different.” But they remain one of the very worst teams in the league. We’ve got this spread at closer to a touchdown, placing a lot of value on Pittsburgh at home. The Steelers have won 10 of their previous 11 division games and are 17-9 SU the L26 times they were favored. The number is too low here. 10* Pittsburgh

10* New Orleans (8:20 ET): The Saints as a home underdog? Yes, please! Obviously, we are aware of the Drew Brees injury keeping him out of this game, but that didn't stop New Orleans from going to Seattle last week and winning 33-27 as a 5.5-point underdog. It is very rare to find the Saints getting points at the Mercedes Benz Superdome as it's only happened eight times since 2010. They've gone 6-2 ATS in those games, winning five of them outright. While it's the Brees injury that's largely responsible for this line, there's also a growing amount of respect for Dallas in the marketplace, something that we're not sure whether or not we share in. While the Cowboys are 3-0 SU/ATS, they've beaten the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins, all of whom are bottom five teams. Take the points here. 

These teams met last year, in primetime, and the Cowboys shockingly handled the Saints. We were on Dallas in that Thursday night game, as 7.5-point home underdogs, and they won 13-10. It was a remarkable defensive effort against Drew Brees, but this time it's Teddy Bridgewater that's the Saints QB and the game is in New Orleans. We would be foolish to suggest that the Saints are better long-term w/ Bridgewater at the helm opposed to Brees, but it's not as if the former can play any worse than Brees did in LY's meeting. Brees was held to 127 yards passing in that game. The Saints still only lost by three. Now, exactly nine months later, they get their shot at revenge and it's been noted "in the building" just how much the Saints remember LY's game. 

The Cowboys, traditionally, have not been a good favorite under Jason Garrett. They have covered all three games as chalk this year, but again, you have to consider the opponents. The bottom line is that Dallas SHOULD be 3-0 entering this game. But they should not be the betting favorite. We saw last week the oddsmakers severely underestimated some of the backup QB's being called into duty as they went 6-0 ATS, 5-1 SU and the only SU loss was Pittsburgh, by four points, in a game they probably should have won. Bridgewater, who has been a starter before, is an incredible 13-2 ATS when taking points. That's the best ATS record for any QB as an underdog in the Super Bowl era. He's 24-7 ATS overall as a starter. The Saints are being grossly underestimated in this spot as it's a primetime game at home. 10* New Orleans 

8* Minnesota (4:25 ET): Note - due to the late nature of this pick (being released late A.M. Sunday), analysis will be more brief than usual. Chicago and Minnesota share 2-1 records, but as we always harp on, won-loss records are not always created the same. Chicago’s two wins this year have come against Denver and Washington, two teams that are a combined 0-6. They were fortunate to win in Denver and the Redskins are a complete dumpster fire right now, a team whose defense is so bad that we called for Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears offense to get on track Monday night. (Had the Over). But that win on MNF didn’t really do much for our overall view on the Bears, who aren’t going to be as successful as they were last year. 

Minnesota has dominated in its two wins, racing out to 21-0 leads against Atlanta and Oakland. Both of those games came at home, but even on the road the Vikings SHOULD have beaten the Packers. They outgained Green Bay 7.4 to 4.8 on a per play basis, only to be foiled by a couple of egregious and ill-timed Kirk Cousins turnovers. The Vikes should be able to lean on their defense in this game, however. They are tied for 5th in scoring (15.7 PPG allowed) and face a Bears offense that has yet to gain 300 total yards in any game. As far as Cousins is concerned, the offense should focus on running the ball. Only one team can claim to beat their 193.7 yards per game on the ground.

Minnesota is the better team here, which is already reflected in the line. But expect them to win outright here as they easily could be 3-0 while the Bears could easily be 1-2. Chicago was actually outgained by Washington on Monday night, but clearly benefited from being +4 in turnovers. Teams coming off a win on Monday night have now failed to cover seven straight times. 8* Minnesota

8* Arizona (4:05 ET): Seattle was 10-6 last season and made the playoffs as a Wild Card. We liked them to regress here in 2019, so imagine our shock when they started 2-0. But those victories came under interesting circumstances. The two teams they beat - the Bengals and Steelers - are now a combined 0-6. They were actually outgained by a bad Bengals team, at home, 429-233. They held on to win that game by one. Then they beat Pittsburgh by two, but that was when the Steelers lost Ben Roethlisberger to injury. The injury occurred with the Steelers ahead. Oddsmakers expected the Seahawks to go to 3-0 last week as they faced the Saints w/o Drew Brees at home. But they were upset 33-27 and it wasn’t really that close.

Arizona has yet to win in the Kliff Kingsbury/Kyler Murray era. They did rally for a 27-27 tie w/ the Lions back in Week 1. That’s a Lions team that hasn’t lost. After that, the Cardinals played Baltimore tough, losing by only six on the road. We thought it was a mistake to have them favored last week at home vs. Carolina, even though the Panthers were playing w/o Cam Newton. Sure enough, they lost that game 38-20. But we’ll call for a much better performance at home this week. This line shouldn’t be more than a field goal, in our opinion. 

The Legion of Boom days are long gone in Seattle. This Seahawks secondary gave up 418 yards passing to Andy Dalton in the opener and has faced a backup quarterback for the last six quarters. Murray may be a rookie, but he’s trusted to throw a lot in the Air Raid system. We certainly don’t like Seattle in this price range. They’ve gone just 4-10-1 ATS as a division road favorite under HC Pete Carroll.  They’ve also failed to cover 7 of the last 10 times they’ve been a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points, losing four of those games outright. The Cardinals have covered the last five times as a dog of 3 to 7 points. A desperate home dog is worth taking here. 8* Arizona

8* Tennessee (1:00 ET):  This is hardly a great matchup for the favored Falcons. First off, it’s against an AFC opponent. Non-conference games have not treated this team well the last several seasons. A loss last week to the Colts was the 12th straight time they failed to cover against an AFC team (1-11 SU!) They are 5-21 ATS L26. It’s a 4-14 ATS mark under Dan Quinn and the franchise is 1-10 ATS and 3-13 SU when favored in these non-conference games. The fact the Titans come in w/ extra time to prepare (played last Thursday) is another disadvantage Atlanta didn’t need. Take the points.

It’s more than just trends working against the Falcons here. The matchup isn’t great either.  The strength of this offense is throwing the football. But the Tennessee defense has performed quite well against the pass this year. A defense that has yet to allow more than 20 points in any game this year is also giving up just 190 pass YPG. That’s top four in the league. Plus, Atlanta QB Matt Ryan is turning the ball over too much. His six interceptions are tied for the league lead and two of them have come in the red zone. Penalties have also been an issue for the Falcons, something that is usually NOT the case w/ Tennessee (save for last week).

Another reason we like the Titans here is the extended prep time. Ten days ago, we faded them as a road favorite in Jacksonville and an anemic attack went down 20-7. The first two teams to lose on Thursday night have come back to win their next game. While Tennessee is rested, Atlanta just suffered a major injury with Keanu Neal tearing his ACL again. This is the second straight season that the All-Pro safety is out with that injury. The defense fell off a cliff w/o him LY. Back to the trends, the Titans are 11-5 SU and 11-3-2 ATS vs. the AFC South. While they failed to cover off a loss LW, the team is still 19-13-1 ATS w/ Mariota in that role. They are also 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS off B2B losses. Let’s not forget they went to Cleveland and won 43-13 in Week 1.  8* Tennessee

8* Hawaii (10:30 ET): We've got Hawaii rated as the better team here, so don't be surprised when they go to Reno this week and win. The Rainbow Warriors already won big for us once this year, on the very first day of the season, when they hosted Arizona and won that game outright 45-38 (as 10-pt dogs). They've since gone 2-1 despite a schedule that included two more Pac 12 teams (beat Oregon State). A 52-20 loss at Washington (still a very good team) was really not as bad as the final score looks. Despite not scoring on any of their first six possessions and turning it over three times, the Warriors were only down 18 entering the 4Q. Last week was a chance to get back on track as they routed FCS Central Arkansas. We'll take the points here.

Meanwhile, Nevada got one over on us last week as they outlasted UTEP 37-21 as 14-point favorites. In the analysis, we conceded UTEP wasn't much of a team, but were willing to grab the points against what we viewed as an overvalued favorite w/ an injury at the QB position. Sure enough, the game was tied 21-21 in the 3Q. The Wolf Pack did not seize the lead for good until there was a little over 16 minutes left of game time. Remember that this is a team that also has suffered a rout at the hands of a Pac 12 opponent (Oregon). Only Nevada lost 77-6 in a very non-competitive effort. There is that season-opening upset of Purdue, but as detailed last week that was a very phony (and lucky) victory. The Wolf Pack's only other win this year was by six over a FCS team, Weber State.

QB Carson Strong is expected back this week for Nevada, but we still view Hawaii as the superior side. Now each of the last two years has seen the Wolf Pack pull an upset, including 40-22 LY in Honolulu. But the Warriors should be motivated by that double revenge angle and the fact they've lost 10 straight games in the state of Nevada (0-5 vs. both UNLV and Nevada). The weather factor (expected to be cold) is probably overrated. Remember Nevada needed to be +5 in turnovers to beat Purdue 34-31 as they were outgained in the game by 115 yards and down 17 in the second half. After three straight TD drives LW, Hawaii was up 28-0 before some turnovers allowed their opponent to hang around. Their QB (Cole McDonald) is the better signal caller here. 8* Hawaii 

8* UNLV (8:00 ET): Rebels HC Tony Sanchez may be coaching for his job at this point as UNLV has started 1-2 w/ its only win coming against a FCS team (Southern Utah) in the season opener. Sanchez, who was a popular hire due to his success coaching high school in the Las Vegas area, has not been able to get this program off the ground. He's had four losing seasons and a fifth could mean he's heading back to high school. But a bye week may have come at the right time for Sanchez as he's had extra time to prepare for a shaky favorite, Wyoming, who is among the most overrated 3-win teams in the entire country. Take the points. 

\We called Wyoming the MOST overrated 3-0 team in the country last week as they went to Tulsa. Things were looking good w/ the Cowboys (+3.5) down 17-7 entering the 4Q. But two shocking TD drives later, they were unbelievably up 21-17 and looking like they might overcome a double-digit deficit for a 4th week in a row. Thankfully, Tulsa did end up scoring a TD and won 24-21. But we should have known better than to lay a -3.5. But now the Pokes are favored and that's more to our liking. Again, this team has been outgained in every game this season and is -98.7 YPG overall! That's worse than UNLV, who is -38.7 YPG! Wyoming still does rate better than UNLV, but not by as much as the oddsmakers are calling for here. 

The last time these Mt West rivals met, it was quite the memorable game w/ UNLV winning 69-66 in 3 OT's back in 2016. The underdog has pulled an outright upset in both meetings during the Sanchez era. The Rebels are 15-7 ATS as road dogs under Sanchez and have covered four of the previous five times they have been getting between 3.5 and 10 points. The bye week allowed for QB Armani Rogers to get healthy and the team is 10-3 ATS when he starts and finishes a game. RB Charles Williams is 2nd in the country in rush yds per game. Wyoming's QB Sean Chambers is completing just 38% of his pass attempts and operating behind a suspect line. With UNLV's next three games against Boise St, Vanderbilt and Fresno State, Sanchez desperately needs a win here or he risks losing his job. Not saying he gets it, but the Rebels will cover. 8* UNLV

8* Mississippi State (7:00 ET): Miss State played w/o starting QB Tommy Stevens last week, but there was no dropoff w/ backup Garrett Shrader coming in and completing 17 of his 22 pass attempts. That was good enough to earn SEC Freshman of the Week honors as the Bulldogs beat Kentucky 28-13. We had the Under in that game, a winner in its own right, as the defense had just as much to do w/ the win as Shrader did. The status of the Miss State QB situation is somewhat in question going into this game w/ #7 Auburn, but that's okay as "defense travels" and we like MSU as an underdog. Take the points.

Auburn is one of three teams that's started 4-0 ATS. It's probably not coincidental that we're also playing against one of the other two in this 3-game report, that being SMU. Like SMU, the Tigers are off a big upset on the road last week as they went to Texas A&M and demonstrated they were the better football team, winning 28-20 as 4-pt dogs. The game wasn't really that close though as Auburn never trailed and was up 21-3 going into the 4th quarter. They did end up getting outgained though as A&M had three long scoring drives in the 4Q.  That was the first big "true" road win for QB Bo Nix as the Tigers now have beaten both Oregon & Texas A&M away from home (Oregon was a neutral site). But let's see how they do in a pretty clear letdown spot, laying more than one score, with a road game at Florida (#9) on deck. 

It's surprising how few times Auburn has been a home favorite of -7.5 to -10 through the years. But they failed to cover 9 of the last 11 times in the role. No matter who has been the QB, Miss State doesn't get beat big often, unless they are facing Alabama. The Bulldogs did lose to Kansas State earlier in the year, by 7, in Starkville. But Kansas State was probably underrated coming into the year. That was the game starting QB Tommy Stevens got hurt and the difference in the game wound up being a 4Q kick return for a TD by Kansas State. Miss State had the total yards edge in that game. Remember that Auburn easily could have lost the opener to Oregon as they never led until the final 10 seconds. Miss State won this game a year ago, 23-9. They are being undervalued in what is a "sandwich" spot for Auburn. 8* Mississippi State 

8* South Florida (4:00 ET): If you're a regular client, then you may remember how we routinely faded USF down the stretch last year. The Bulls had actually started the year 7-0, but we called them the most overrated team in the country at the time and made our mark by cashing numerous tickets at their expense. They finished the season at 7-6 w/ all six losses coming by double digits against bowl teams. That losing skid bled into this year as the Bulls lost their first two games (Wisconsin, at Georgia Tech) before finally winning two weeks ago, here in Tampa, against South Carolina State. It was the program's first victory in nearly 11 months! 

Now we're not saying that SMU is as overrated as USF was at this time last year. But the Ponies are in a tricky spot here. Last week saw them go to TCU and come away w/ a 41-38 upset. Not only did they snap a record seven-game losing streak to the Horned Frogs, but it was also the program's first win against a ranked Power 5 opponent since 1986! They were 7.5-point underdogs. Now they have to turn around and lay points on the road, against a rested opponent. The Mustangs are one of three teams in the country to start 4-0 ATS, so they've clearly been undervalued in the early going. Again, we're not saying they are anywhere near as overrated as USF was last year. But in the power ratings, they are the weakest 4-0 SU team in the country right now. 

Led by QB Shane Buechele, this would be SMU's first 4-0 start since 1984, the "heyday" of the program and before it got the infamous "Death Penalty." A transfer from Texas, it's not shocking to see Buechele thriving in Sonny Dykes' offense as his receiving corps here is actually comparable to what they have right now in Austin! But USF has given SMU fits in the past, taking the previous three meetings including a 24-pt win the last time here in Tampa. SMU may have been able to snap a losing skid against one opponent last week, but that was as an underdog. Both road wins this year have been by 7 pts or less and they're 0-2 ATS as road chalk under Dykes. USF made a QB change for the South Carolina State game w/ redshirt frosh Jordan McCloud replacing senior Blake Barnett. McCloud accounted for five TDs in the win and has now had an extra week of practice. Don't be surprised if USF surprises here. 8* South Florida

10* Florida Atlantic (3:30 ET): Unless I'm missing something here, this line is an eye-opener. Last week Clemson HC Dabo Swinney did his best to hype the Charlotte program, but the 52-10 result there tells us that was probably nothing more than "coach-speak." Sure, the 49ers are scoring more this year, averaging 47 PPG against non-Clemson foes. But that includes games vs. Gardner-Webb (FCS) and UMass (who is the worst FBS team in the country). FAU is a team we had bouncing back in 2019 and after taking their lumps the first two games (against Ohio State & UCF), Lane Kiffin's Owls have put up 40+ points in B2B wins. This is a big revenge game for FAU, who lost as 17-pt home favorites to Charlotte in LY's regular season finale (costing them bowl eligibility). Obviously, the line is a LOT more favorable this time around. 

The road team has actually won all four meetings between these teams. Last year, it was Charlotte kicking a 56 yard FG as time expired for the 27-24 upset. FAU led that game 21-10 at the half and would go on to outgain the 49ers by 112 yards. If losing that game doesn't have the Owls motivated here, then I'm not sure what to say about Kiffin. Two years ago, he came to FAU and engineered a massive turnaround, leading the team to 11 wins. There was a predictable dropoff LY, perhaps more severe than expected, but 2019 should see the Owls return to the top of the C-USA East Division. Meanwhile, Charlotte was picked for last. Yet, look at this line! Doesn't make much sense to me. 

Charlotte's offense might be "improved," but the defense remains really bad, especially at stopping the run. This is interesting b/c LY the 49ers were Top 10 IN THE COUNTRY against the run, allowing just 105 YPG. But FAU still ran for 187 yards against them. That was w/ Devin Singletary (graduated), but he accounted for less than half the total in LY's game. FAU's run game has dipped w/o Singletary, but they should be able to get on track here against a Charlotte defense allowing over 200 YPG over land. Keep in mind that FAU's YTD rushing total is still severely hampered from facing Ohio State. QB Chris Robison delivered B2B 300+ yd passing games in wins over Ball State and Wagner. Prior to two weeks ago vs. UMass, Charlotte had been favored over a FBS opponent only ONCE in their history! Now look at this line. 10* Florida Atlantic

8* Notre Dame (3:30 ET): This looks to be the rare time where the public has cooled on the Fighting Irish as they are off yet another loss to a Top 5 opponent, that being Georgia last week. But the Irish certainly played better than they usually do in that spot, losing by only six to a team that is certainly among the four best in the entire country. The idea of a "moral victory" is probably offensive to those in South Bend, but this remains a Top 10 team in the country. But after most of the nation watched them lose such a high-profile game, they aren't going to want to lay double digits w/ them against a fellow ranked foe. Our recommendation is to do it. There is a huge gap between Notre Dame and Virginia, even larger than what the oddsmakers are saying here. 

Virginia is 4-0 and ranked #18 in the country. However, they may be among the most overrated teams by the pollsters. We don't even have them in our Top 35, let alone the Top 20. Tip your cap to the job done by Bronco Mendenhall here in Charlottesville, but his Cavaliers simply aren't ready to compete w/ a team like Notre Dame quite yet. The Hoos were quite lucky to escape w/ wins against Florida State and Old Dominion the L2 weeks and those games were at home. ODU actually outgained them as Virginia had only 244 yds total. A lot of people were fading them in that spot and for good reason. We faded them vs. Florida State and that looked like it was going to be an outright upset before the Seminoles gave the game away (still covered). 

Notre Dame has a top 10 defense in terms of efficiency, thus you should look for UVA to struggle again moving the football. Consider that the Cavaliers failed to score until there were only 7 mins left in the 1H vs. Old Dominion. One of their three second half TD's came from the defense.  Notre Dame, led by QB Ian Book, also has the edge offensively in this game as it was just two weeks ago they put up 66 points here at home. Yes, that was against New Mexico. But the bottom line is that Virginia is very average both offensively and on special teams. The Irish won't need to score a ton here, but will score enough to win by at least two touchdowns. The only teams they've lost to since the start of last season are: Clemson and Georgia. 8* Notre Dame 

8* Arizona State (10:30 ET): Cal may be 4-0, but I have a hard time believing this is the 15th best team in the country (as they have been labeled by the AP). In my own personal power ratings, I have the Bears outside the Top 40! Yes, they do have two "true" road wins against Washington and Ole Miss, the former of which is a legit top 20 team. But Ole Miss is a team we faded back in Week 1 (at Memphis) and haven't really been impressed w/ ever since. Still, the Rebels offense put up 500+ yards on the heralded Cal defense (after putting up just 173 in the loss to Memphis!) and the Bears needed a goal line stand at the end of the game to preserve a 28-20 win. Cal's resume now includes three wins by eight points or less (including North Texas, who outgained them) and a 2 TD win over a FCS school (Cal Davis). Not convinced that the better team isn't the one getting points here as Arizona State has already gone to Michigan State this year and won outright. Take the points. 

The key to Cal's resurgence over the last two years has been their defense, which can claim one of the best secondaries in the entire country. But that defense was shredded last week by Ole Miss and the offense in Berkeley remains a huge liability. While they put up 433 total yds last week at Ole Miss, a lot of that came on big passing plays in situations that weren't all too favorable. Somehow QB Chase Garber was able to go 12 of 17 for 245 yds passing on plays where the offense was either 2nd & 7 (or longer), 3rd & 4 (or longer) or 4th down. Let's see him do that again. (Hint: we don't think he'll be able to). Last year, a more experienced Cal offense (10 starters back) could only manage 21.5 PPG. This year's Cal offense returned only four starters. They've yet to score more than 28 pts in any game. 

Arizona State's defense isn't too shabby either. The Sun Devils had allowed just seven points in each of the first three games en route to a 3-0 start. But they then wound up losing the Pac 12 opener to Colorado 34-31, a game which was pretty even throughout. As I said earlier, the Sun Devils already hold a win in East Lansing. So losing at home to Colorado didn't make much sense, other than it was a "letdown" spot. Herm Edwards has done a much better job in Tempe than most expected and will have his team ready to go here. Including the win over Michigan State, Edwards is now 4-1 ATS as a road dog (the only loss coming LY, ironically to Colorado). He's beaten Michigan State twice now. 8* Arizona State

10* Philadelphia (8:20 ET): The underdog has gone a perfect 3-0 this season on Thursday night. We've been on the dog each of the last two weeks with Bucs upsetting the Panthers and the Jaguars upsetting the Titans. The Eagles certainly hope the underdog trend continues this week as they are 0-3 ATS and more importantly (for them) 1-2 SU. They face a Green Bay team that is a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS, but the Pack have hardly been dominant in getting there. The Packers have actually been outgained in all three games and their YPG differential of -41.6 is certainly not what you'd expect from an undefeated team. They were fortunate to be +3 in turnovers LW at home vs. Denver and the week before actually saw them get outgained 7.0 to 4.9 by Minnesota on a per play basis. In a desperate spot for the Eagles, we're going to take the points in this matchup. 

Coming into the year, we did hail the Packers as being one of the most likely teams in the league to improve on last season's win total. Seeing them win only six times w/ a healthy Aaron Rodgers last year was somewhat shocking. So a coaching change was made (Matt LaFleur replacing Mike McCarthy). LaFleur, a 1st time HC, was supposed to reinvigorate Rodgers. But the offense is just 28th in YPG (286.7 YPG) and are 30th on third downs, converting just 25% of them time. Instead it's been the Packers defense that's been reinvigorated. They have 12 sacks (3rd most) and a league-leading +6 turnover differential. Those numbers are likely to lead most teams to a 3-0 start. But LB Za'Darius Smith just popped up on the injury list Wednesday (knee). We're not convinced this Packers' defense can continue to carry an offense that's playing so poorly.

It's also helped that Green Bay's three opponents have all shot themselves in the foot. Meanwhile, the Eagles were the ones shooting themselves in the foot last week vs. Detroit. They allowed a TD on special teams, turned it over twice (leading to six Lions' points) and failed to score after blocking a FG. QB Carson  Wentz also didn't have a full compliment of weapons LW as both starting WR's were out as was his TE for most of the game. But both Alshon Jeffrey and Dallas Goebert are expected back Thursday. Philly is scoring more than Green Bay so far, which is another reason to like them plus the points here. As underdogs, the Eagles have covered 9 of the last 13 times, winning eight of those games outright! 10* Philadelphia

10* Cleveland (8:20 ET): What a difference a week makes in the eyes of the public. The Browns have gone from trendy road favorite to unpopular home dog, which is quite the week to week turnaround in this league. Making the perception all the more head-scratching is how they handled the short-handed Jets Monday night, winning that game 23-3 in dominant fashion. Perhaps some still have a "bad taste" in their mouth from the Browns' first game, which was an ugly 43-13 loss here at home to Tennessee. But that game got away from them late, making the final score at least a little misleading. An underdog for the 1st time here in 2019, we'll grab Cleveland plus the points Sunday night in what shapes us as the franchise's biggest game in years - hosting the defending NFC Champion Rams. 

Cleveland has done well in the past in this spot. At least recently. They were 4-1 ATS as a home dog last season and are also 4-1 ATS getting four points or less (home or road) w/ Baker Mayfield as the starting QB. They have also won and covered all three primetime games w/ Mayfield as the starter. Again, all trends only go back to last season, but there's no denying that this is a "new Browns team," at least compared to most of the moribund offerings this franchise has provided over the L20 years. Yes, they caught a break Monday night w/ the Jets having to turn to a 3rd string QB. But it hardly appeared as if Trevor Siemian was going to do anything productive before getting hurt. The Browns' defense allowed just 262 yds last week and a lot of that game in "garbage time." They do have some injuries to deal w/ on that side of the ball this week, but can get through it. 

In particular, look for the Browns to potentially win this game "in the trenches" w/ a talented defensive line going against an inexperienced Rams' O-line. There could be as many as three Rams lineman w/ three or fewer starts on their career resume playing tonight. On offense, QB Baker Mayfield must get rid of the ball quicker. He seems aware of that issue and thus we look for it to get rectified here. The Rams have caught some breaks of their own the first two games, facing an injured Cam Newton and a Saints team that lost Drew Brees to injury. We're not nearly as high on the Rams as the market seems to be. They have not covered three of the previous five times they've been a road fave of -3.5 to -7 points. 10* Cleveland

8* NY Jets (1:00 ET): So, for the Jets, this is certainly not how you'd draw up the 2019 season. They are 0-2, having blown a 16-pt lead at home vs. Buffalo in Week 1 and are now down to their THIRD string QB after a 23-3 loss to Cleveland Monday night. Now, on a short week, they face the Patriots. The game is in New England where they have not won since 2010's shocking playoff upset, "led" by Mark Sanchez. Luke Falk is now the team's QB as the Jets look for their first regular season win here at Gilette Stadium since 2008! But they don't call the pointspread "the great equalizer" for nothing. It's a historic spread Sunday w/ the Jets getting three touchdowns. Regardless of what teams are involved, this is an automatic take the points situation. 

NFL underdogs of 21+ points have covered at a 67% rate all-time, going 22-11-2 ATS. Bill Belichick coached Patriots teams have NEVER covered as a favorite of 20 or more points, going 0-4 ATS. They haven't been in this situation since 2011 against the Colts when they won by just a touchdown. While the New England defense has yet to allow a TD this year, resulting in the team outscoring its first two opponents 76-3, they won't be so fortunate to face a team like the Dolphins every week. Note Miami is also getting more than 20 pts this week (at Dallas), making this a VERY unusual week of NFL betting.

The reason we'll be taking the Jets and not Miami this week is pretty simple. The Jets are a much better team. Falk probably isn't much of a downgrade from Trevor Siemian and now he'll at least have had practice reps w/ the first team offense. For what it's worth, Falk is 8th on the NCAAF all-time passing yardage list. Covering a spread like this is hard to do in the NFL and it should be noted that the Patriots got TWO defensive touchdowns last week vs. the Dolphins and another from WR Antonio Brown, who is no longer w/ the team. The Jets defense has allowed just 40 points in two games. 8* NY Jets

8* UTEP (8:00 ET): We won't try and sell you on UTEP being a good team because they are not. But the Miners are off a bye week and getting a good number of points, at home, against an overrated Nevada squad. The Wolf Pack are only averaging 19.7 PPG through three games, so the thought of them laying 2 TD's on the road seems far fetched to us. It is an opening night upset of Purdue, 34-31 as 11-pt home dogs, that has the contingent from Reno overvalued here. The reason they won that game was they were +5 in turnovers, which offset them being outgained by 115 yds in that contest. Since then, the Wolf Pack were "put in their place" with a 77-6 loss to Oregon, then could only beat FCS Weber State by a score of 19-13 last week. Take the points here. 

Nevada trailed Purdue 24-7 at the half and were down 31-14 halfway through the third quarter. The fact they came back and won that game was a minor miracle. They scored 10 pts in the final minute, including a 56-yard FG w/ no time remaining by a walk-on kicker. Had that comeback not taken place, we'd be looking at a 1-2 team whose only win would be by six points over a FCS opponent. If that were the case, this line probably looks a lot different. The Wolfpack have been a road favorite just twice under HC Jay Norvell (third year here in Reno), both times LY, and they are 0-2 ATS including an outright loss to a terrible San Jose State team. So there is real hope for UTEP here. 

Now here's the ugly part. UTEP has lost 24 of its last 26 games. The two wins were this year's season opener (vs. FCS Houston Baptist - by two points) and last year against Rice (who we currently rate as the worst team in the FBS). But the good news is we don't need the Miners to win, only cover. Being off a bye is good. Coming into the year, we did think this would be an improved team as they were better last year than their 1-11 SU record showed. This is a spread that belongs in the single digits as Nevada has lost 10 of its last 13 road games.  8* UTEP

10* Tulsa (3:30 ET): Wyoming is 3-0 (straight up), but it would be a grave mistake to think those in Laramie should make holiday plans revolving around a New Year's Six Bowl game. Of all the teams still unbeaten across the country, the Cowboys are likely the weakest. That's largely confirmed by the fact they are getting points from 1-2 Tulsa this week. Now, the Golden Hurricane fought valiantly against Oklahoma State last week. They were up 21-20 at the half and would have covered (+14) had it not been for a late TD. We were on them in that spot, a tough loss for sure, but they get it back here against a different (and much weaker) group of Cowboys. Lay the points. 

Just to reiterate what's already been said about Wyoming's "phony" record, they are 3-0 but have been outgained in all three games. They've had close calls each of the last two weeks against Texas State and Idaho, neither of whom are any good. The Texas State game is one of just two times the Cowboys have won a non-conference roadie under HC Craig Bohl in 10 tries. They did so despite being -151 in total yards and -11 in first downs (lucky!). Interestingly enough, the Pokes were favored in that game (-7.5) and their only other non-conf road win under Bohl (LY vs. New Mexico State). Last week's home victory over FCS Idaho was even tighter (21-16) as Wyoming again overcame an early double-digit deficit and being outgained for the game. 

Tulsa has already played Michigan State and Oklahoma State, so they aren't likely to be intimidated by an opponent w/ an unbeaten record. Wyoming has actually won seven straight dating back to LY, but it's time for that to end this week. A big problem the Cowboys have is a passing attack which has averaged just 82 yards passing per game w/ a 39.1 completion percentage! Tulsa's rushing numbers are skewed due to how many sacks they gave up in the Michigan State game. The offense has moved the ball pretty well since that time and hasn't turned it over. The Golden Hurricane also have the better defense in this matchup (36th in efficiency). Add it up and you've got what should be an easy win for the home team. 10* Tulsa

8* Louisiana (2:00 ET): Sometimes if it's "too good to be true," it often is. Case in point, Ohio U returns to Athens this weekend, reeling, as they are off B2B road losses to Pitt and Marshall. They are laying just a short number at home and one might think this is a good landing spot for Frank Solich's Bobcats to bounce back. But we feel Louisiana is the better team in this matchup as the Ragin Cajuns come in feeling pretty good about themselves following B2B wins where they put up 593 and 748 (!) total yards of offense. Ohio's offense isn't performing up to expectations thus far and this very well could turn into a third consecutive loss for them. Take the points! 

Ohio was beaten far worse than 20-10 final score showed against Pitt. They barely gained 200 yards in the 20-10 loss and then followed that up w/ a poor defensive effort LW against Marshall where they gave up over 500 total yards. The offense was better there, but this still has to be considered a disappointing start considering QB Nathan Rourke is back. But there were just three other starters back from LY's record-setting offense in Athens. Granted, the Bobcats were underdogs in both losses, but we have our concerns w/ them being favored here as the defense has struggled to stop opponents through the air and on the ground. The Louisiana offense ranks 4th nationally in first downs. 

Ohio is also on a three-game losing streak to Sun Belt teams, including two bowl losses. Louisiana played for the SBC Championship last year and should exploit the Bobcats' suspect rush defense. The Ragin Cajuns have gone over 400+ yards rushing each of the last two weeks, admittedly against weaker competition, but Ohio also just allowed 300+ yds on the ground to Marshall last week. Louisiana returned its top three rushers from LY, so it's no surprise they have found so much success on the ground this year. This team hung tough against Mississippi State in the season opener, losing by only 10 points despite five turnovers and even ran for 164 yds against what was one of the top defenses in the country last year. 8* Louisiana

8* UL Monroe (12:00 ET): Both teams are coming off one-point losses here. However, the situation is not entirely identical. UL Monroe has had a week off to recover from its 45-44 overtime loss at Florida State. Iowa State, who had its bye two weeks ago, now needs to find a way to quickly recover from losing to Iowa last Saturday. That's going to be tough to do, given the nature of the defeat and the fact it was the fifth straight time they lost to their in-state rival. Laying a big number in this spot makes the Cyclones an attractive fade too as UL Monroe has already proven it can hang w/ a P5 opponent. Take the points. 

Iowa State has to be demoralized about losing to Iowa. Not just because they had an extra week to prepare, but also the manner in which they lost. They outgained the Hawkeyes by 105 yards, but two turnovers proved costly, especially the second one which was a muffed punt in the final two minutes. That came after the offense had turned the ball over on downs in Iowa territory its previous drive. Scoring only 17 points on a Hawkeyes' defense that was very beat up in the secondary has to be very disappointing as well. Keep in mind the Cyclones needed OT to get by Northern Iowa, a FCS team, in their opening game. I feel that this is an overrated team, ripe for the picking right now. They've failed to cover five of the last six times they were favored here in Ames, all five ATS losses coming as DD favorites. 

UL Monroe has to like the spot that they are in as they had no problems covering a similar spread against Florida State. Yes, the Seminoles have their issues right now, but the Warhawks led them in the 4th quarter. They lost b/c of a missed extra point in OT. Kicking issue aside, this is one of the most experienced teams in the entire country and they've previously beaten six P5 opponents. Offensively, they are led by QB Evans and RB Johnson, the latter of which went for 126 yards on 26 carries vs. FSU. The UL Monroe rush defense is an area of concern, but fortunately for them ISU has struggled to run the ball effectively so far (just 91 yds vs. Iowa) as they badly miss David Montgomery, who is now in the NFL. 8* UL Monroe 

8* Western Michigan (12:00 ET): Really tough spot for Syracuse here as they are off a deflating 41-6 loss to Clemson last week where they were thoroughly outclassed just as they were by Maryland the week prior in a 63-20 loss. The defense was torched for a combined 1,262 yards in the two losses, which is certainly NOT what you want to see out of a favorite in any situation. While favored at the Carrier Dome this week, the Orange will be up against yet another opponent that is superior on the offensive side of the ball and you should expect WMU QB Jon Wassink to have a big day here. Syracuse is nothing close to the team they fielded last year as losing QB Dungy (school's all-time passing leader) is something they are still trying to overcome. Take the points. 

Dungy's replacement is Tommy DeVito, who has not played well to this point. DeVito is bottom 20 nationally in QBR and has more interceptions (4) than TD passes (3). Of course, DeVito's play is largely irrelevant when the Orange defense has played so poorly. They allowed a frightening 8.6 yards per play LW vs. Clemson. Obviously, the Tigers are as good as it gets, but Western Michigan is going to be able to move the ball here as well. Last year, the Broncos hung 42 points (in a losing effort) on the 'Cuse defense in the season opener at Kalamazoo. I'm sure they haven't forgotten and the fact this is a revenge game makes the spot even sweeter for the underdog. 

The Broncos put 57 points and nearly 700 total yards on the board last week vs. Georgia State, so that's even more evidence that they should score plenty here. The week prior saw them stymied at Michigan State, but that's as good a defense as they'll see all year. Wassink is in his third year as the starter here and is 13-1 SU vs. non-P5 teams. That record obviously doesn't apply here vs. an ACC opponent, but it's still worth mentioning. Wassink is also Top 10 in the country in QBR right now. With Syracuse now 1-6 ATS following a SU loss, the underdog is the play here (plus the points) as WMU can absolutely take this game outright. 8* Western Michigan