10* Massachusetts (7:30 ET): This is the third consecutive week UMass is playing on the road and the last two have not gone well. They lost 55-21 at Boston College and then 34-13 at Georgia Southern. But both of those teams are far better than what they face this week, that being Florida International, who is coached by Butch Davis. FIU is off a win last week, as a favorite, against Old Dominion. It was a road game (FIU was favored by three) and a 28-20 final, but they had to rally back from 17 points down and there was a two-hour rain delay that impacted the game. It's hard to credit the weather w/ giving either team an edge, but FIU was clearly sharper afterwards as Old Dominion never scored in the second half. UMass is better than what they've shown the last two weeks and I have them going down to Miami and recording an outright win. Take the points. 

It was a 17-0 deficit for FIU midway through the 2nd quarter last week and it appeared as if they were well on their way to a second straight loss to open the season. The opener was a real disappointment as they were beaten 38-28 by Indiana here at home. Then came a traumatic week w/ two FIU players - starting RB Anthony Jones and offensive lineman Mershawn Miller - being the victims of a drive-by shooting. Both thankfully survived, but their football futures are in doubt. Kudos to their teammates for rallying around them and coming from 17 down to beat ODU last week. The key was three straight long TD drives, one right before halftime and the other two opening the third quarter. That took them from a 20-7 deficit to a 28-20 lead, which was the final score. The weather delay came before the two second half scores and ODU was not the same offensively afterwards.

This will actually be the fourth consecutive season these schools have met. The home team has won all three times so far, including a wild 63-45 game here in Miami last season. That was FIU's highest-scoring effort EVER and landed them in the Gasparilla Bowl (where they got blown out by Temple). It was also a game that was a late addition to the schedule. Hurricane Irma caused both teams to cancel games earlier in the season and each needed to add a 12th onto the schedule. Interestingly, UMass was favored by 2. The Minutemen are a better team this year and more experienced, plus I like the revenge factor. Even though they started 0-6 last year, UMass had the first down edge in five of those games. They would go onto beat both Appalachian State and BYU while also playing two SEC teams (Tennessee, Miss State) tough. I like senior QB Andrew Ford and this should be a rare road win for the Minutemen. 10* Massachusetts

8* Mississippi State (7:30 ET): Not quite knowing how good Mississippi State really was, I laid off them last week as they were road favorites going into Kansas State. The "Little Apple" is always a tough place for visiting teams, especially ones laying points, but the Bulldogs made quick work of Bill Snyder's Wildcats, demolishing them 31-10. MSU looked every bit the part of a Top 10 team in the country and those in Starkville that believe this could be the third best team in the SEC were made to look real smart. Given that the Bulldogs are off such an impressive road win and laying a big number this week, should I choose to abstain again? I don't think so. Louisiana Lafayette is no match for MSU and I suspect this one will get ugly in a hurry. Lay the points. 

QB Nick Fitzgerald did not even play in MSU's season opener, something that has still yet to be fully explained. But the team certainly didn't need him in a 63-6 whitewashing of FCS Stephen F. Austin. Fitzgerald had a major impact against Kansas State, however, throwing for 154 yards and running for 159 more. Coupled w/ RB Kylin Hill, who had 211 yds rushing last week, this looks to be a vicious offense that'll be tough to contain. Including Fitzgerald, they brough back nine starters from LY when they finished ranked #19 in the country. The defense is also very good, particularly up front, an area that also has plenty of experience. The spread doesn't concern me as I expect Fitzgerald to complete a far higher percentage of his throws this week against a much weaker defense.

Louisiana has had two full weeks to prepare for this game, but they could get a month and it still wouldn't be enough to compete. The Ragin Cajuns beat Grambling in the opener, 49-17, but this is obviously a monumental step up in class for a team that has a 1st year head coach. The defense has only three starters back from last year, so it's going to be really tough to keep Mississippi State from scoring and Louisiana's own offense simply isn't going to be able to trade scores here. Something else that's tough is former Louisiana HC Mark Hudspeth is now the associate HC at MSU and that gives the Bulldogs a pretty clear insight into the players they'll be facing. But they don't need Hudspeth to let them know they're significantly better. That's already known and will be apparent Saturday night. 8* Mississippi State

8* Nevada (7:00 ET): Nevada has to be extremely disappointed with last week's showing in Nashville. They were blown out by Vanderbilt as 9.5-pt dogs, losing 41-10. Things really got away from the Wolfpack late as they were outscored 24-0 in the second half. Four turnovers certainly didn't help matters, especially considering they led to 21 Vandy points. The performance was a stark contrast to the team's season-opening win over Portland State where they scored 72 points. Granted, Portland State is a FCS school, but I (and I think they) definitely expected a better performance in that second game. Luckily, they're back in Reno this week and facing an Oregon State team that is getting a shocking amount of respect given they haven't won a road game since 2014! Lay the short number. 

Oregon State is on the short list for worst Power 5 team in the country. Even 40 points from the oddsmakers couldn't help them cover in Week 1 at Ohio State as they gave up 77 points to the Buckeyes. Last week brought the first win of the Jonathan Smith era, but it was a FCS opponent (Southern Utah) at home. And the Beavers' defense still surrendered a ghastly 488 yards in the win. The last time Oregon State beat a FBS team was the 2016 finale against Oregon, who was a lame duck (pun intended!) for a coach about to get fired. OSU was a double digit dog in eight of its final nine games last year, the lone exception coming in Corvallis. I know Nevada was only a 3-win team itself a year ago, but this is an awful lot of respect for a Beavers team that - again - HAS NOT WON A ROAD GAME SINCE 2014! They are 0-18 SU since then and have never been closer than a touchdown! Two-thirds of the losses have been by at least three touchdowns.

Like I said last week, Nevada should improve this season for second year HC Jay Norvell. Of their nine wins the L3 seasons, eight have come here at Mackay Stadium. The offense we see Saturday night will more closely resemble what we saw vs. Portland State than what we saw vs. Vanderbilt. The best news for the Wolfpack coming out last week is that they won't have to face another SEC defense the remainder of the year. This is an opportunity that they should relish as the program's last win over a Power 5 team came back in 2014 vs. Washington State. Senior QB Ty Gangi posted the third worst QBR in any start of his career last week and should rebound against what I've already said is a much weaker defense. A "hidden" edge for the Wolfpack in this game is that they lead all FBS teams w/ an average of 27 yards per punt return. 8* Nevada

10* Troy (12:00 ET): This is both a tricky and tough spot for Nebraska. Tricky in the sense that it's an early start time in Lincoln against a pretty good football team. Tough in the sense that it sure will be difficult to get over losing last week in Scott Frost's home debut. The Cornhuskers fell as a three-point favorite, 33-28 to Colorado, giving up the game-winning touchdown w/ just over a minute to play. It was a game Nebraska outgained its opponent, 565-395, only to be undone by an ugly -3 turnover margin. It wasn't just HC Frost's debut that they lost, though. They also lost starting QB Adrian Martinez to a knee injury and he looks to be questionable at best for this game. Nebraska has covered just 1 of the last 5 times it has been a double digit fave of three touchdowns or less and is 3-10 ATS its L13 home games. I don't get why this spread has moved the way it has. Troy is 8-3 ATS its L11 road games, so take the points. 

It's been a bit of a "baptism by fire" for Frost at his alma mater. He's already lost more games here than he did all of last season w/ UCF. The Cornhuskers' season opener (vs. Akron) had to be cancelled due to weather. That made the Colorado game even tougher as the 'Huskers had to play a quality opponent in their very 1st game under a new head coach. They looked good early, but the Martinez injury is when things turned. Remember that two different QB's transferred out of the program once Martinez was named the starter late in the summer. This leaves the very inexperienced Andrew Bunch, a sophomore walk-on, at the helm. Note that if somehow Martinez were to play, this selection still stands. I wouldn't expect him to very effective a week removed from injuring his knee. 

Troy went 11-2 SU last year and tied Appalachian State for the regular season Sun Belt title. This season got off to an auspicious start w/ a 56-20 loss at home to Boise State. I suspect that has played a significant role in this line being higher than it should. But Boise State is a better team than Nebraska. The Trojans righted the ship last week w/ a 59-7 beatdown of Florida A&M as they forced four turnovers and had a 477-287 edge in total yards w/ twice as many first downs (26-13). Turnovers are what hurt Troy vs. Boise State (had four of their own) and QB Kaleb Barker was making his first start. Barker is completing 65% of his passes so far. Neal Brown (4th season as HC) will have his team ready for this one. 10* Troy

10* Baltimore (8:20 ET): This is obviously a huge revenge game for the Ravens, whose playoff hopes were dashed last year by the Bengals in wild, Week 17 result that saw Cincy score a last second TD. It was a most improbable result w/ Andy Dalton tossing a 49-yard TD pass to Tyler Boyd on a 4th & 12, in Baltimore no less. Prior to the deciding play, the Ravens were projected as having a 93.4% chance of winning and thus making the playoffs. Basing a pick solely on revenge can sometimes be a mistake, but there's no denying tha Baltimore is again the better team entering 2018. They beat the Bengals here in Cincinnati last year, 20-0 (as three-point dogs), and should have swept the season series. The fact that both teams are off convincing Week 1 victories aids us in getting a good number here and I'll make a rare call to take a road favorite.

Baltimore was a popular pick in Week 1 as they were hosting Buffalo. Things went even easier than anticipated as they rolled to a 47-3 win and cover. Their vaunted defense allowed just 153 total yds in the contest. Granted, they were facing perhaps the worst team in the league and certainly the worst starting QB in Nathan Peterman. But let's not lose sight of the fact they don't have to win that big every week. Certainly not here where all that's required is simply winning. I was shocked to find that they've dropped seven of the nine meetings vs. Cincinnati, so the revenge angle here extends beyond one game. The Ravens have gone 9-3 ATS vs. the AFC North the L2 seasons, so the struggles against Cincy are highly irregular. I'll definitely take John Harbaugh and his staff over Marvin Lewis. The Ravens have won and covered both of their Thursday games the L2 years. 

The Bengals were 34-23 winners over Indianapolis in Week 1. They rallied from a 23-10 second half deficit to score the game's final 24 points. Note that they had an 83-yard fumble return for a late touchdown. At the time, the Colts were (obviously) driving and it was only a 27-23 game. So things certainly could have ended a lot differently there. The defense that the Bengals will be up against this week will be far superior. Going from facing one of the league's worst defenses to one of its best will be a challenge I don't think they're up for. Coming into the year, I had the Ravens rated significantly higher than the Bengals and you can bet this is a game Harbaugh had circled on his calendar. 10* Baltimore 

8* Oakland (10:15 ET): The mood in Oakland is an ornery one as Khalil Mack was traded to Chicago just before the start of the regular season. So much for the enthusiasm surrounding Jon Gruden's return to the sidelines. Perhaps what the Mack trade signified was an acknowledgement that the Raiders are "a year away." Last year saw the Silver & Black drop down to six wins after going 12-4 SU in 2016. The reality is that team from two years ago was pretty fluky. The Super Bowl hype the Raiders entered last year was pretty ridiculous in retrospect and not something I bought into one iota. That all being said, I do expect Gruden's return to result in an increase in wins this year. The Raiders are underdogs at home in Week 1 and I think a great value against the NFL's new "shiny object."

The Rams came out of nowhere last year. This franchise had done next to nothing under Jeff Fisher, but Sean McVay quickly put his imprint on the team and the impact was immediate. QB Jared Goff and the rest of the offense transformed into one of the league's top units almost overnight. But I look for the Rams to score fewer points per game in 2018. There's more tape available on McVay's offense and defenses will adjust. Speaking of defense, the Rams' stop unit projects to be one of the best in the league this season. They were actually middle of the road LY, but upgraded significantly in the secondary (Marcus Peters, Aqib Talib) and most importantly resigned DT Aaron Donald, arguably the best at his position in the league.

In the wake of the Mack trade, the Raiders have fallen out of favor w/ the public and thus are now a far better value than they would have been. Mack looked incredible Sunday night for his new team, but one defensive player should not have that big of an impact on the pointspread. We're now at a point where the spread is too high. As mentioned above, I expect the Rams' offense to regress a bit this year. Meanwhile, the Raiders' offense almost HAS to improve after averaging just 18.8 PPG a year ago. Oakland was a home dog three times last year, going 1-1-1 ATS. But they lost only one of those games by more than a field goal and that was against the Patriots. While the Rams' defense projects to be good, I have questions about the pass rush. Oakland QB Derek Carr makes enough plays here to get the cash. Take the points. 8* Oakland

8* Chicago (8:20 ET): The Bears were a team I'd already 'earmarked' for improvement and then they went out and traded for Khalil Mack, one of the top defensive players in the league. One of the smartest moves in the short tenure of 1st year HC Matt Nagy was to retain DC Vic Fangio. There weren't many positives from the John Fox era in Chicago, but Fangio's defenses were generally among them. On the offensive side of the ball, the hope is that Nagy can do for QB Mitchell Trubisky what Sean McVay did last year for Jared Goff. That might be an unrealistic expectation, but the Bears will be better in 2018 and I think it starts w/ a competitive showing against the rival Packers. Take the points. 

With Aaron Rodgers back in the fold, the expectation is for the Packers to win a lot more games this year. Rodgers broke his collarbone in Week 6 last year and that was basically it for the rest of the team. They lost 8 of their final 11 games to finish below .500 for the 1st time since Rodgers' 1st year as a starter. Rodgers' return by itself makes the Pack a strong bet to return to the playoffs this year. But his supporting cast isn't what it used to be. Also keep in mind that this team has not won more than 10 games since 2014. Rodgers' favorite wideout, Jordy Nelson, is gone. Although Nelson was aging and may not be as missed as anticipated. Even w/o Rodgers, the Pack still swept the Bears last season. But as I'm about to discuss, this is a much improved Chicago team in 2018. 

The offense surrounding the second year QB Trubisky is a lot better this year. I really like the Bears' backfield tandem of Howard and Cohen. Receiver had been a problem for years, but was addressed in the offseason w/ Allan Robinson, Taylor Gabriel and tight end Trey Burton all coming in. The defense was already good before Mack's arrival and will be even better than it was last year. I think it would be foolish to expect Mack to dominate in this game, but he is more than capable of making an impact. The Bears have just TWO road wins the last two seasons, but there's a real "positive vibe" surrounding this team entering 2018 and I think they're capable of pulling an upset here. 8* Chicago

10* LA Chargers (4:05 ET): The AFC West is wide open this year. It's a division that's largely been dominated by Kansas City since Andy Reid's arrival, the last two years in particular. Over the last two seasons, the Chiefs are 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS vs. the rest of the division. But they have zero playoff wins to show for it. In fact, the Chiefs still have just ONE playoff win since Joe Montana retired a quarter century ago. That was three years ago against a Houston team that was quarterbacked by Brian Hoyer and Brandon Weeden. No longer content with going 12-4 and being "one and done" in the playoffs, the Chiefs have made a major move at QB this season, jettisoning Alex Smith in favor of last year's #1 draft choice Patrick Mahomes.

With the AFC West more wide open this year, the Chargers seem to have stepped into the favorite role. This was a very good team last year. They actually had a better point differential than Kansas City. But the same old issues plagued the Lightning Bolts, namely an inability to win close games. They dug themselves a huge hole last year, starting the Anthony Lynn era 0-4 w/ three of the losses coming by three points or fewer. From that point on, they went 9-3 SU (w/ one of the losses in OT), but it was "too little, too late." There's no doubt in my mind that this was one of the six best teams in the AFC last year (certainly better than Buffalo), they just didn't get a chance to show it. While there were two significant injuries sustained during camp - TE Hunter Henry and DB Justin Verrett - I believe this team has the tools to win the AFC West this year. 

The change at QB for the Chiefs is an interesting one. Mahomes clearly has a bigger upside than Smith. But something to watch will be turnovers. The Chiefs had an outrageous +45 TO margin the L3 seasons, thanks in large part to Smith's ability to take care of the football. Mahomes will not be as cautious as Smith was and I believe that's going to affect the team in the TO department. Meanwhile, Philip Rivers will be entering his 15th season as the Chargers QB and I believe this could be his best offense to work with since the days of LaDanian Tomlinson. He has RB Melvin Gordon, WR Keenan Allen and TE Antonio Gates is back to replace the injured Henry. Last year, the Chargers offense was 4th in total yards, but only 13th in scoring. The Chiefs defense isn't what it used to be and I see LA outscoring them in this one. 10* LA Chargers

8* Cleveland (1:00 ET): For a team that went 0-16 SU last year and has just 1 win in its last 32 games, the Browns sure seem to be getting a lot of "love" from bettors heading into Week 1. How could this be? After all, they are playing the Steelers, a team that - to put it mildly - has had their number through the years. Since returning to the league in 1999, the Cleveland franchise has beaten the Steelers only six times in 40 tries. Just three of those wins have come since 2003. Then there's the fact the Browns have not won a season opener since 2004! That's also the ONLY time since '99 they won a season opener as they are 1-18 SU overall w/ 14 of those losses at home. They've lost 13 straight. Why will this year be any different?

Well, for starters, the Browns officially hit 'rock bottom' last year, becoming just the second team to ever go winless in a 16-game regular season. Despite my concerns over the coaching staff (not a fan of Hue Jackson), they are a LOCK to improve in 2018. Consider that they were 0-6 SU in games decided by seven points or less last season and had a -28 turnover margin. Those numbers will be near impossible to repeat. There's been a major upgrade at QB as well. Baker Mayfield was the #1 overall pick in April, but for now it's Tyrod Taylor starting under center. Taylor will cut way down on the number of turnovers. He was more than serviceable LY for a Buffalo team that made the playoffs. The overall talent on hand last year was not indicative of a team that should have gone winless. There has been across the board improvement with the roster coming into '18. 

While I understand it may be difficult to put your faith in Cleveland here, this play is just as much about fading Pittsburgh. The Steelers were lucky to win 13 games LY as they had a league-high eight victories by one score. They were then outclassed in the playoffs, at home, by Jacksonville. They enter this season w/ a major question mark at RB w/ LeVeon Bell continuing to hold out. Unless something drastic changes in the next 48 hrs, Bell will not play Sunday. WR Antonio Brown is also banged up. There are question marks w/ this defense as Ryan Shazier's future remains unclear. Then there is the fact that the Steelers have been a questionable road favorite for years under Mike Tomlin. They are on a 5-13 ATS slide laying four or more points away from home w/ seven outright losses. Ben Roethlisberger's TD-INT ratio has suffered greatly in these games. 8* Cleveland 

8* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): New Orleans is getting a lot of love coming into this season. Many have them on their short list of Super Bowl contenders. But I have questions about their ability to duplicate last year's success. First off, the defense made a major leap in 2017, going from 31st to 10th in points allowed. After such a jump takes place, we typically see some sort of regression the following season. I do believe we'll see the Saints give up more yards and points than they did last year. Furthermore, can the Saints possibly be as dominant as they were last year when - at one point - they delivered eight straight wins, seven of them coming by eight points or more? I think not. This is a huge spread for Week 1 and I'll take the points w/ the Buccaneeers. 

New Orleans started last year 0-2, getting blown out by both Minnesota and New England. The usual defensive issues were present and another 7-9 SU season seemed inevitable. But then came the aformentioned win streak. They were just the 13th team since the merger to win seven straight games by more than a touchdown. That's impressive, but the majority of their victims were bad teams. They finished the year 4-4 over the final eight games, including playoffs. We all remember how the playoffs ended w/ the memorable finish in Minnesota. In addition to the likely defensive regression I mentioned above, the Saints will also have to deal w/ the absence of RB Mark Ingram for the first four weeks (suspended). 

Ingram isn't the only key player suspended for this game. Tampa Bay QB Jameis Winston will miss the first three games due to violating the league's personal conduct policy. But Ryan Fitzpatrick isn't that big of a downgrade from Winston. The schedule won't be easy these first three games as the Bucs will play three division champs from LY (also the Steelers & Eagles), but nevertheless I have the team improving in 2018. They overachieved two years ago in getting to 9-7 SU, but were a disappointment LY at 5-11. Look for them to finish somewhere in between this year. There have been major upgrades along the defensive line and that's where they could cause problems for Drew Brees and company. With no Ingram, I have my doubts about LY's Offensive Rookie of the Year Alvin Kamara being an every-down back. 8* Tampa Bay

8* Arizona State (10:45 ET): The Herm Edwards hire has been met w/ great skepticism, at least outside of Tempe. Herm has been away from coaching for awhile (10 years!) and his last involvement w/ the college game was 1989 as a defensive coordinator @ San Jose State! But the Sun Devils' debut under Edwards definitely saw them "play to win the game" as they blew out UTSA 49-7. However, Edwards didn't seem all that impressed. "I didn't like what I was watching a lot of times," he said afterwards. I like that kind of reaction from a new HC despite holding the opposition to 220 total yards (lots of tackles for loss) and the QB turning in one of his better career performances. On the flip side, Michigan State did not look good in its season opener, barely escaping Utah State at home. 

There's no doubt that the respective results last week have contributed to this line shrinking some. But it was probably too high to begin with. Tempe is not a fun place to play if you're the visitor, especially in these late night affairs. Just ask Washington, who came in here ranked #5 last year (and unbeaten) and lost 13-7. The Huskies weren't the only ranked team to fall at Sun Devil Stadium last year. Two weeks prior, the same thing happened to Oregon. The Sun Devils are 5-2 ATS as a home dog the L2 seasons, pulling FOUR outright upsets. QB Wilkins, now a senior, threw 4 TD passes last week (career-high) and for 237 yds w/o an interception. Given how Utah State was able to move the ball last week (344 total yds) on the Spartans, I expect the Sun Devils to be able to do the same. 

Michigan State trailed Utah State 31-30 w/ just under five minutes to go. They then drove the ball 75 yards for a TD to avoid the upset. But throughout the game, they never really could pull away from the Aggies. Sure, a pick six heavily contributed to Utah State getting back in that game. But I wasn't all that impressed w/ Sparty QB Brian Lewerke overall. Over the past three seasons, Michigan State is a horrific 1-8 ATS as a road favorite. The lone cover came in last year's reg season finale at Rutgers. There have been five outright upsets in that stretch, granted three of them coming in that "lost" 3-9 season of 2016. But still, this spot just screams "potential upset" and I'll ride Coach Herm in what could be a statement game for him. 8* Arizona State 

10* Texas A&M (7:00 ET): Under the bright lights at College Station, I believe A&M is set to shine in their first real test under HC Jimbo Fisher. Fisher is of course quite familiar w/ the opponent, Clemson, having served all those years on the Florida State sideline. Fisher's FSU teams went 4-4 against Clemson, though things had turned near the end of his tenure in Tallahassee w/ the Noles losing each of the L3 years. Still, Fisher knows what he's up against Saturday night and while that's one of the best teams in all of college football, look for the Aggies to stay within this generous number. Even in the dying days of the Kevin Sumlin era in College Station, A&M still managed to go 2-0 ATS as DD home dogs last year. Before that, it had been some time since they'd been getting 10 or more here at Kyle Field. Take the points.

Clemson is on everyone's shortlist for the College Football Playoff and why wouldn't they be seeing as they've gotten there each of the last three seasons. They enter 2018 w/ a bit of controversy on their hands though as they are playing two QB's - Kelly Bryant and Trevor Lawrence. Said Dabo Swinney, "We definitely will play both quarterbacks," Swinney said. "There's no doubt about that. Nothing happened [against Furman] to warrant not playing both those guys." It wasn't a big deal against overmatched Furman, but playing two QB's can be an unneeded distraction. That's why Nick Saban quickly dealt away the idea down in Tuscaloosa. This just seems like a really large number to lay on the road, especially in an unfamiliar setting. 

A&M's first game went about as easy as Clemson's did. The Aggies won Fisher's debut 59-7 over Northwestern State w/ a 758-251 edge in total yards. Similarly, Clemson had no problem w/ Furman, beating them 48-7 w/ a 531-136 edge in total yards. But those were both tune-ups. Now we're about to find out what both sides are truly made of. We're pretty sure that Clemson is good, but I think A&M is also better than they're being given credit for. Fisher likes both his offensive and defensive lines and I believe playing well in the trenches keeps the Aggies in the game the whole way. This spread should be closer to a touchdown, in my estimation. 10* Texas A&M 

10* Iowa (5:00 ET): The battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy has typically been closely contested as five of the past seven meetings have been decided by six points or less. That would lead one to believe that the underdog is typically the "right side" in this rivalry, but note that the dog has actually covered only once in the past five years. Last year, Iowa won 44-41 in overtime after a late TD drive tied things up at the end of regulation. It was their third straight win over their main in-state rival. However, ISU still ended up finishing the year at 8-5 SU, same as the Hawkeyes. The Cyclones were a big surprise in the Big 12 and this year finds expectations a lot higher than normal in Ames (Matt Campbell's third year here). But I'm a bit concerned on how last week's cancellation (weather) will affect this team, which I am banking on regressing in 2018 anyway. 

Iowa State pulled a lot of upsets last season. They were an underdog in all but two conference games, the exceptions being the obvious ones (against Kansas and Baylor). This year's squad isn't quite as experienced and probably won't have a +10 turnover margin like 2017. Turnovers have actually been a MAJOR issue for the Cyclones in recent years vs. Iowa. They have committed 22 of them in the last nine meetings, leading to 68 Iowa points. That's roughly a quarter of all scoring from the Hawkeyes in those nine games. Their last visit here to Iowa City (two years ago) did not go well as they lost 42-3 in Campbell's second game. Despite the feel of Campbell having this program trending in a positive direction, I'm banking on ISU being somewhat of a disappointment in 2018. 

Kinnick Stadium (I visited there over the summer) is not an easy place to play. Just ask Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State. The Hawkeyes are 15-5 SU at home the L3 years after dismantling Northern Illinois last week 33-7. That was a game where a LOT of people liked the underdog. I've got the Hawkeyes finishing second in the Big 10 West this year (behind Wisconsin obviously) as this should be a better team than last year. As I briefly mentioned above, Iowa State did not play last week as their scheduled game vs. South Dakota State was cancelled due to the weather. Not getting a game under their belt could end up costing them here as Iowa looked good and ready to go in their opener. I get that Iowa State was a great underdog last season, but typically we see that kind of performance regress the following season. 10* Iowa 

8* South Carolina (3:30 ET): This game is back to being played on the second weekend of the season after a couple year hiatus. These teams finished 1-2 in the SEC East last year (UGA obviously #1), but oddsmakers had it as a total mismatch w/ UGA favored by 23 in Athens. The Bulldogs did win comfortably, but "only" by two touchdowns as it was the Gamecocks who covered the spread. It was UGA's third straight double digit win in the rivalry, and it looks like the same is being expected Saturday. But this is a lot of points to lay on the SEC road and I think Will Muschamp's defense keeps his team in this one. Take the points as the home team is on a 5-1 run in this series. 

Georgia was a pointspread juggernaut LY, covering 11 of its 15 games, including the National Title Game LOSS to Alabama. They opened #3 this season (behind Bama and Clemson) and clobbered Austin Peay 45-0 w/ a 508-152 edge in total yards. That really doesn't tell us much about this team. This team was pretty fortunate last year in that most of their "hard" games were at home. Their one regular season road game against a ranked opponent was a one-point win over Notre Dame. Something to watch here is that the 'Dawgs have only five returning starters on defense. South Carolina's offense is a lot more talented this year w/ both WR Deebo Samuel and RB Rico Dowdle back from injuries. Neither played in last year's game. 

Like Georgia, South Carolina's first game tells us little about what is yet to come. They blew out Coastal Carolina 49-15 and now find themselves ranked in the Top 25. Dowdle had 100 yards on 15 carries and the Gamecocks dominated (as you'd expect) w/ a 557-238 edge in total yards. This is easily the biggest home game of the Muschamp era (third year here), so expect a highly motivated underdog Saturday afternoon. It's also the national TV game on CBS. As good as Georgia may be, I don't see them coming in and blowing South Carolina out. To me, Georgia by about a touchdown seems like a pretty likely scenario, which means taking the points is the way to go here. 8* South Carolina

8* Arkansas State (3:30 ET): You have to tip your cap to Nick Saban for the job done in yet another neutral site season opener. Last week's 51-14 demolition of Louisville (in Orlando) improved Saban to a perfect 12-0 SU (and 11-1 ATS) in season openers since coming to Tuscaloosa and the L8 wins have all come at neutral sites against Power 5 programs. He's covered the spot in seven of those. But as impressive as Bama has been in those games, they've been equally as disappointing the following week - at least to bettors. They are 0-6 ATS (w/ one no-action) in Week 2 the past seven years as they are almost always laying a big number in a game that just screams out "flat spot." It's the same setup this year and this is a play on the situation moreso than the points. Take Arkansas State plus the points. 

Arkansas State won its opener 48-21 over Southeast Missouri State. QB Justice Hansen threw 6 TD passes, all to different receivers, and completed 26 of 36 pass attempts for 423 yards. But the Red Wolves really didn't break away until the 3Q when they found the end zone four times. Dahu Green was NOT one of the six receivers who caught a TD pass from Hansen, nor will he be catching one the rest of the season as his 2018 is now over due to a broken ankle. Green was NOT a part of the team last year though (sat out as a transfer) when ASU went 7-5 SU, which was actually a DOWN year for them. This is a program that has been to seven straight bowls despite a myriad of coaching changes. While they're clearly NOT on Alabama's level, the Red Wolves are more than capable of staying within this huge number. 

I don't see Alabama trying to run up the score here. They proved their point against Louisville and have the SEC opener next week at Ole Miss (always a tricky place for Saban). The QB situation seems to have worked itself out here w/ Taovailoa predictably beating out Hurts to be the starter. But no matter who's started for the Crimson Tide, they have consistently failed laying these big numbers at the betting window in Week 2. Last year, they were 43-point chalk against Fresno State and won "only" 41-10 (I had FSU!). That was w/o a SEC game on deck. The Tide's defense is young on the backend (secondary), which should allow Hansen and the Arkansas State offense to make enough plays to stay comfortably within this spread. 8* Arkansas State

8* Air Force (2:00 ET): FAU looked shockingly ill-prepared for its season opener at Oklahoma to the point it appeared the team had been simply reading its own press clippings and not practicing over the summer. They lost 63-14, getting outgained 650-324 in the process. The game was 42-0 at halftime and could have been a lot worse had the Sooners not taken their foot off the gas pedal in the 2H. FAU also didn't score until late in the third quarter and their second TD came w/ just over four minutes to go in the game. As ugly as that display was, things won't get any easier this week as they have to turn around and defend the triple option of Air Force. Given how putrid the Owls' defense looked last Saturday, I give the AFA an excellent shot at coming in and pulling the outright upset. Take the points. 

Service academies always seem to make for good underdogs and Air Force has generally been no exception. They are 7-2 ATS in the L3 years as a road dog. Last week, they were a favorite and crushed Stony Brook 38-0. The Falcons' defense was not impressed w/ what the Sea Wolves had to offer, holding them to just 75 yards and 4 first downs for the game. It marked the 12th consecutive season that the AFA opened the season w/ a win over a FCS opponent at home. This week is going to be tougher, but I don't expect the contingent from Colorado Springs will be intimidated. To the contrary, I expect them to be highly motivated. The last three seasons have seen this team go 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS against non-conference competition. 

Florida Atlantic was one of the breakout teams in college football last season, going 11-3 SU and 10-3-1 ATS. It will now be interesting to see how they perform going from the "hunter" to the "hunted." I don't know what to make of last week's dreadful showing, other than to say it's looking like a surefire decline under HC Lane Kiffin in year two. The Owls were the most experienced team in the country LY, paving the way for massive improvement. They did bring back 10 starters on defense for this season, but some good that did them last week. They've got only five starters back on offense and looked totally one dimensional LW w/ RB Devin Singletary the only real threat. Air Force has covered 9 of the past 10 times it has been a road dog of 7.5 to 10 points. 8* Air Force

8* Nevada (12:00 ET): All summer long, Vanderbilt had to hear how Middle Tennessee was on "their level." Odds reflected that belief as the Commodores were only slight favorites, at home, going into last Saturday's Week 1 matchup. So much for that belief. The Commies easily dispatched of the Blue Raiders, winning 35-7 and covering the spread easily as 3.5-pt favorites. But now comes a potential "trap spot" as they're off a win over an in-state "rival" and have Notre Dame on deck. They may have gotten the job done last week, but Vandy has never really been a good choice as a favorite, going just 2-8 ATS the L10x it has been asked to lay between 7.5 and 10 pts at home. They're rarely even in this price range and Nevada is a dangerous dog. Take the points. 

Nevada hung 72 points on an overmatched Portland State squad last week, a nice start after going just 3-9 SU last season. I figure they're a lock to improve in the Mt West as this is Jay Norvell's second season and he's got seven returning starters on offense as opposed to the four he had last year. Things won't be as easy this week compared to last, but it won't have to be in the underdog role. Something else to consider here is that Nevada has had an extra day to prepare as their season opener took place last Friday. They rolled up 636 yards of total offense against Portland State and should be highly motivated going into "SEC country" for the 1st time since 2015 and just the fifth time ever. 

As lopsided as the game ended up being on the scoreboard, Vandy really didn't pull away until late against MTSU. A defensive TD in the second quarter is what swung the game as it was tied 7-7 at that point. After a 58-yard TD drive to open the game, Vandy's offense struggled to move the ball for the rest of the 1st half, gaining just 31 more yards. Their pass defense was also suspect, giving up 100 yds through the air in the 1st quarter alone. A +2 turnover margin obviously helped as well. Nevada QB Ty Gangi threw for 342 yards in the opener. While that obviously came against an inferior defense, he should put up solid numbers again in this one. Vandy is 1-4 ATS following its previous 5 SU wins and isn't as lucky as a last week when the number is so short. Look for the pointspread to be a factor in this one. 8* Nevada 

8* Philadelphia (8:20 ET): As stated in the promo, I went big on the Eagles when these teams met last January in the Division Round. Oddsmakers overcompensated for the fact Philly was starting Nick Foles - and not Carson Wentz - at QB. Turns out I was right as not only did the Eagles win that game, they would of course go onto win the Super Bowl. With Wentz still out and Foles off a shaky preseason, we're not quite where we were at back in January, but it's close. The Eagles' have gradually been bet down over the course of the summer due to uncertainty over the QB position. Now, as we prepare to start a new season, we're at a point where they sure like a great value at home - at least to me. I say lay the short number. 

The Eagles return most of the key nucleus that won them the Super Bowl. Remember that Foles was the QB for the entire playoff run and played masterfully. I think it would be a mistake to think he can replicate that kind of performance this season, but he shouldn't have to. With so few dollars invested at QB (Wentz still on a rookie deal, Foles working on cheap deal), the team was able to go out and build an impressive roster around the most important position. This is why they won the Super Bowl. Their offensive line may be the best in the league and could feature as many as FOUR Pro Bowlers. They are relatively loaded (by modern NFL standards) at the skill positions (note: Alshon Jeffrey won't play here). The defense gave up only 18.2 PPG a year ago. Let's also not write off the power of home field advantage. This team is 15-3 SU/13-5 ATS the L2 yrs at Lincoln Financial Field and will be celebrating the Super Bowl win before kickoff. 

Atlanta figures to be in a competitive race w/ rival New Orleans for NFC South supremacy this year. Last year, under 1st year OC Steve Sarkisian, the offense could not sustain its other-worldly production from the year prior w/ Kyle Shanahan calling plays. That 2016 season saw the Falcons almost win their own Super Bowl, but the key word there is "almost." This was also not a good road team in 2017 as they went 3-7 ATS. There's always been the issue of an offensive decline when you take Matt Ryan and company outdoors. Once again, oddsmakers and (especially) the public are making the mistake of underestimating Philly. I have the Super Bowl Champs defending home turf. 8* Philadelphia

8* Virginia Tech (8:00 ET): I have Florida State improving this season (went 7-6 SU LY), but this is a tough number to lay in the 1st game of the season. It's a new coaching staff in Talahassee w/ Willie Taggart replacing Jimbo FIsher, who elected to bolt to the greener pastures of Texas A&M. Taggart isn't walking into a bad situation by any means (he inherits TWO QB's w/ 12+ career starts); I'm just a little leery of his team being favored by this much in the first game, against a conference foe no less. Va Tech comes in off a 9-4 SU season and will have to replace a number of key players from one of the top defenses in the country a year ago. But they are ranked right behind FSU in the initial Top 25 poll, just one spot back at #20. I'm going to take the points here. 

Deondre Francois has been named the starting QB here for Florida State. If you recall, he was injuried in LY's season opener vs. Alabama, which is really what started the Seminoles' downfall. The team ended up losing six games, three as favorites, and barely made a bowl. Ending the year w/ a 42-16 win over Southern Miss in the Indepedence Bowl is hardly what the faithful had in mind back in August. The pressure is on Taggart to bring the program back to prominence, which should happen in due time. I'm just not sure we should be expecting any kind of "blowout" in the first game, however. The 'Noles are just 4-11 ATS in conference play the past two seasons. 

I was surprised to find that these schools last met all the way back in 2012. They're not in the same division, but still, you might have expected a matchup in an ACC Championship Game. But w/ Clemson having passed FSU by in the Atlantic, the Noles haven't even won their division since 2014. Va Tech lost to Clemson in the 2016 ACC Title Game, HC Justin Fuente's first season in Blacksburg. They failed to get back last year even though they ended up losing the same number of overall games (4). Josh Jackson returns at QB for the Hokies and they should be better offensively than last season. Defensively, they likely won't be as strong due to all the departures, but they traditionally field a strong stop unit, year in and year out. 8* Virginia Tech

10* Miami FL (7:30 ET): I don't think that LSU is going to very good this year. Actually, let me rephrase. I don't think they'll perform up to the usual standard set down in the Bayou. HC Ed Orgeron enters 2018 firmly on the hot season despite having just one full season under his belt and winning nine games. That's life in the SEC West though and the Tigers figure to finish closer to the bottom of the division than to the top (where Alabama is king). Miami won its division last year, the ACC Coastal, but was too banged up to compete w/ Clemson in the Conference Championship. Mark Richt has a lot more optimism surrounding him than Orgeron does as his first year was the Hurricanes' best in a long time. I'll lay the points in this one. 

These schools have met just twice in the past 30 years. Both were blowouts coming at a time when one program (and not the other) was dominant. Miami won 44-3 back in 1988 while LSU returned the favor w/ a 40-3 beatdown in the 2005 Peach Bowl. This one looks a lot more even on paper as both come in ranked in the Top 25. But Miami is a top 10 team (#8) while LSU seemed to slide into the backend of the poll based on repuation alone. The Tigers have just four seniors in the starting lineup (that's both sides of the ball) and are one of the least experienced teams in the entire country. Their QB (Joe Burrow) is a transfer that didn't even start practicing w/ the team until the Spring. 

On the flip side, Miami has a fifth-year senior QB in Malik Rosier. They have 14 returning starters overall and are far more experienced up and down the roster. I think LSU's revamped offense is going to really struggle in this game. They don't have a great running back to lean on like in year's past and will struggle to move the chains in this one. 10* Miami FL

8* BYU (10:45 ET): They're not used to having "down" seasons in Provo, but Brigham Young definitely had one in 2017, going just 4-9 SU. That just doesn't happen around here as it was the program's first losing season in a LONG time. Expect HC Kalani Sitake to turn things around for 2018, however, despite another relatively challenging schedule. In addition to this game, the Cougars will pay visits to Wisconsin, Washington and Boise State this year. For this opener w/ Arizona, I expect them to have the advantage in the trenches and that will go a long way in covering as a double digit dog. Take the points. 

The reason I'm so optimistic about BYU's prospects up front in this game is the reports I'm hearing out of camp. The offensive line looks to be a major weakness for Arizona as it isn't particularly big or experienced, two things that the BYU defensive line is. There is a ton of optimism in Tucson right now w/ Kevin Sumlin replacing Rich Rodriguez. QB Khalil Tate was one of the most exciting players in college football last season. But the Wildcats closed the season by losing four of the last five games as defenses started to get more film on him. They didn't exactly play the most challenging Pac 12 schedule last year, avoiding both Stanford and Washington from the North Division. The defense has nine starters back, but hasn't allowed fewer than 34 PPG any of the last three seasons.

Three of the six starters lost in the desert are along that offensive line. BYU has the edge defensively in this matchup, which is something you have to like when getting double digits. BYU QB Tanner Mangum is now a senior and should improve under a new OC whose system is a better fit for his talents. As excited as the Arizona fanbase might be about Sumlin, Texas A&M couldn't wait to run him out of town as he never could replicate that first season (2012) where he went 11-2 SU. Every subsquent year saw A&M win fewer or the same number of games as the previous one. The Aggies also traditionally fielded bad defenses under Sumlin. The team he inherits here isn't as talented as his best A&M teams. 8* BYU

8* Michigan (7:30 ET): One of College Football's more storied rivalries is renewed on this first weekend of the 2018 season and I, for one, can't wait. This is a real "do or die" season for Michigan HC Jim Harbaugh as his Wolverines fell to 8-5 SU last season (lost final three games). He's yet to beat rival Ohio State and is a combined 1-5 SU against the Buckeyes and Michigan's "other" rival, Michigan State. Quite simply, progress HAS to be made in Ann Arbor in 2018. As for Notre Dame, they are coming off a 10-3 season and at one point were 8-1 SU and ranked #3 in the country. Expectations are sky high in South Bend right now, but I believe the Fighting Irish is poised to let down the faithful w/ a season-opening loss Saturday night. 

When he was the HC at Stanford, Harbaugh was fortunate to have Andrew Luck. When he made the jump to the NFL, he made both Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick temporary stars. Here in Ann Arbor, he's yet to really have a quality signal-caller. That changes this year w/ Shea Patterson's arrival. Patterson was poached from Ole Miss in the wake of Hugh Freeze's disgraceful exit. Since the day he first stepped on campus, Patterson immediately became the best QB the Wolverines have had during Harbaugh's tenure. Surrounding Patterson is an experienced team w/ 17 returning starters. The defense is going to be very good, possibly the best in the entire country. Last year, despite only ONE returning starter, Don Brown's group yielded just 271 yards and 18.8 points per game. This year, they have 14 of the top 16 tacklers back and have - on paper - the best secondary in the entire country. Points will be hard to come by against Michigan this year. 

Notre Dame should also have a good defense w/ nine returning starters back on that side of the ball. They didn't allow any of their first eight opponents to score more than 20 pts a season ago. But then they allowed 37+ in three of the final four regular season games. I also question the offense. In their three losses last year (to Georgia, Miami and Stanford), the Irish could manage only 19, 8 and 20 pts. They will be facng an even stronger defensive unit here. After jumping from four to 10 wins last year, I do NOT see ND matching their win total from '17. As big as this game is to Brian Kelly's tenure, I get the feeling that it's "all on the line" here for Harbaugh, who risks losing the fanbase w/ a fourth straight loss. Look for the Wolverines to pull this one out. 8* Michigan

10* Miami OH (3:30 ET): This was a matchup I played on the opening week of last season. Only I took Marshall as a slight home favorite and they were able to win and cover in a 31-26 final. This year, the proverbial "shoe is on the other foot" and I'm going w/ Miami in a revenge spot. The role reversal here is actually quite amazing. At this time last year, optimism was high in Oxford where the RedHawks had just become the first team in NCAA history to start a regular season 0-6 and then finish 6-0 (this was 2016). They lost their bowl game that year, but came into '17 thinking MAC East Title. It didn't happen as they finished a disappointing 5-7 SU (no bowl). Meanwhile, I was high on Marshall at this time last year as they were off a disappointing 3-9 SU campaign in '16 and poised to rebound. Sure enough they did as that season opening win over Miami propelled them to an 8-5 SU season. 

This year, it's Miami's turn to improve while Marshall should decline. Sure, the Thundering Herd do bring back 18 starters for HC Doc Holliday. But one of them is NOT QB Chase Litton, who opted to declare for the NFL Draft. Only problem is Litton wasn't drafted! That hurts not just the player (can't come back), but the school as Litton was a 3,000+ yd passer a year ago. Replacing that kind of production will not easy. The job will likely go to Alex Thomson, a 6'5" grad transfer from FCS Wagner. But he's been limited during summer practice as he missed most of the 2017 season due to a shoulder injury. Marshall has a new offensive coordinator as well. I won't be shocked if this team regresses offensively and even more so defensively. Last year, they went from allowing 35.3 PPG all the way down to 19.9.

Miami was unlucky last year as four of their seven losses came by five points or less. One was to Marshall, a game that saw the Thundering Herd score THREE non-offensive touchdowns, yet still need to bat down a Hail Mary attempt on the game's final play. The RedHawks severely outgained the Herd in that game, 429-267. They enter '18 w/ a senior QB (Gus Ragland) and eight returning starters on both sides of the ball. They certainly haven't forgotten how last year's game went down. Getting this meeting at home is huge. Marshall is generally not a good road team, losing 9 of its last 10 road openers. The home team has covered the last six head to head meetings. After cashing Marshall LY, I say it's Miami's "turn" to open 2018 w/ a big win! 10* Miami OH

10* Washington (3:30 ET): This is a huge opening week matchup with CFP implications. The game takes place in Atlanta. Washington enters the year as the favorite to win the Pac 12. Were they to win here, they'll be favored in every remaining game. Auburn is coming off a highly successful season where they won 10 games, including regular season victories over the two SEC teams, Alabama & Georgia, that made the playoff (lost rematch to UGA in SEC Title Game). The Tigers are the slight favorite here despite being ranked slightly lower, but it wasn't always that way. Over the summer, UW opened as a short favorite. I believe Auburn is going to be a bit of a disappointment in 2018 and will gladly take advantage of the line "jumping the fence" here. Go with the Huskies.

Remember that Washington is just two years removed from making the playoff. I called for them to get there in 2016 and will do so again in 2018. Part of the reason I like them so much is they're experienced. Chris Petersen (great coach) has 17 returning starters back and this one of the 10 most experienced teams in the country. The defense should be outstanding again. They allowed only 16.1 PPG a year ago (playing in the Pac 12!), which was fewer than Auburn. They've now allowed 18.8 PPG or fewer each of the last three seasons. On offense, they return Jake Browning at QB and Myles Gaskin at RB, both seniors. I believe that this is Petersen's best team yet, including the one that got to the CFP two years ago. The Huskies are not underdogs very often, so we're looking at a solid value here. 

Auburn is a good team, but I feel that there are some signs pointing down. For starters, they aren't quite as experienced as they were a year ago. With the game being in Atlanta, many will speak of a "homefield advantage" that exists for Auburn. I'm not so sure of that as the Tigers' L2 games came on this very field (Mercedes-Benz Stadium) and they lost both games, the SEC Title Game to Auburn and the Peach Bowl to UCF. Jarrett Stidham enters his second year as the starting QB, but he'll be surrounded by new pieces at the skill positions. Kerryon Johnson, the team's leading rusher from a season ago, departed. At receiver, both Eli Stove and Will Hastings tore their ACL's in the spring and thus will be unavailable at the start of the spring. They could overcome that against a lesser opponent to start the season, but not a top 10 one. 10* Washington

8* Oregon State (12:00 ET): To be clear, the Beavers aren't good. But judging by the spread, you probably already knew that. They were probably the worst Power 5 team in the country last season and a case could be made that the same will hold true in 2018. But, given all that has transpired with Ohio State the last few weeks, would you want to lay this number? I wouldn't. Now if Urban Meyer were coaching here, I'd just as soon lay off the game. Meyer, one of the best ever, would be more than capable of motivating Ohio State to win by a ton in this season opener. But Meyer won't be on the sidelines here, nor the next two weeks. That will be the backdrop Saturday afternoon in Columbus as Ryan Day will be acting coach for the Buckeyes. Hold your nose and take the boatload of points.

Oregon State won just one game last season. It was against FCS Portland State. HC Gary Anderson surprisingly resigned midway through the year and it was a lame duck team the rest of the way. Jonathan Smith takes over in Corvallis and obviously has a lot of work to do. The ONLY game the Beavers will be favored to win comes next week, against Southern Utah, another FCS school. I do believe that somewhere along the way the team will pull an upset. It won't be here, mind you, but I do believe the team will come out motivated. The 6'7" Jake Luton has been name the starting QB and there are 15 returning starters. Oregon State may not have been very competitive in 2017, but they had only one loss by more than 31 points and that was the finale against Oregon when most of the players (particularly the seniors) had mentally checked out. 

Ohio State fans always seemed to have a love/hate relationship w/ QB J.T. Barrett. He is now gone and sophomore Dwayne Haskins takes over the starting reigns. Haskins has game experience from last year, including leading the comeback against rival Michigan. But being the starter is an entirely different animal. In the past two season, the Buckeyes are just 1-3 ATS when favored by 31 points or more. Conversely, Oregon State covered both times it has been a dog of 31 or more. Too much has to go right for a team to cover a spread of this magnitude and I just don't see it happening for Ohio State in a season opener w/ Meyer MIA and all the distractions surrounding that. 8* Oregon State 

8* Texas State (12:00 ET): Everett Withers enters his third year as the HC in San Marcos. Texas State obviously has a lot of work to do as they've won just 2 games each of his first two years on the job. But the good news is that coaches typically hit their stride in year three as they've done the vast majority of the recruiting. This should be the best Bobcats' team we've seen under Withers. Turnover margin was a killer for Texas State last season (-15) as I didn't think they were as bad as the numbers might suggest - on either side of the ball. I like the points here as Rutgers rarely is favored by this many - against anybody. Chris Ash is also entering his third year as HC of the Scarlet Knights, but this will be just the fifth time his team has been favored to win! Take the points. 

Two of the four times Rutgers was previously favored under Ash came against FCS schools. This will be the 1st time being favored by double digits against a FCS school. Last year, the Scarlet Knights lost outright - here at home - to Eastern Michigan. They have just one double digit win in Ash's tenure, that coming LY at Illinois, 35-24. So history isn't exactly on the Scarlet Knights side heading into the season opener. Their depth on the defensive end was weakened by a credit card scandal. An offense that put up only 18.0 PPG a year ago isn't exactly built to cover large spreads. Don't discount the notion that the players may be looking ahead to next week's tilt at Ohio State (who won't have Urban Meyer) either. 

Texas State's numbers defensively were not good last year. They ranked near the bottom nationally, but should be much improved in 2018. The run defense was actually around the top 40 last season, so their already fine in that regard. The talk coming out of camp is that the secondary will be the most improved position group on the team. If that's the case, the Bobcats should be in fine shape here. Rutgers will be starting a true freshman at QB Saturday, Arthur Sitkowski, a 4-star recruit. Again, and this has been a theme throughout this three-game report, I'm just not interested in laying double digits with a first time starter at the most important position. Two years ago, in Withers' first game, Texas State shocked Ohio as 20-pt road underdogs. I think they'll be more than competitive here. 8* Texas State

8* Florida Atlantic (12:00 ET): Under the tutiledge of Lane Kiffin, FAU took the College Football world by storm last year. They went 11-3, including 8-0 in Conference USA where they were heads and shoulders above every other team. A lot of people, myself included, were on that bandwagon as the Owls entered last season as the most experienced team in the country. They rewarded their backers by going 10-4 ATS at the betting window. Now they'll enter 2018 as the favorite not only to win C-USA, but also to possibly represent the "Group of 5" in a "New Year's Six" Bowl Game. I believe a decline from LY is all but inevitable, but that doesn't mean I think they're three touchdowns worse than Oklahoma, a team w/ its own question marks. Take the points here.

Like Kiffin, Lincoln Riley walked into an ideal situation his 1st year on the job. He took over for the legendary Bob Stoops, but was inheriting a fairly experienced Sooners' squad led by eventual Heisman winner Baker Mayfield. Mayfield is now gone and we'll get a chance - for the 1st time - to see how Riley's offense operates w/o him. My guess is that things will work themselves out in Norman. But in the first game? Kyler Murray is the replacement at QB and won't come close to Mayfield's production of a season ago. Then there is the losses sustained on the defensive side of the ball. This will be far from a dominant group and there really isn't a standout player. The OU defense surrendered 27.1 PPG a year ago, but was consistently bailed out by an offense that averaged 40+ PPG for a third straight year. It'll take a lot of points to cover this spread and I'm not sure OU is capable at this point. 

FAU also has to replace LY's starting QB (Jason Driskell). Heading into Saturday, Kiffin is being rather coy about just who that replacement will be. It'll be one of two transfers: either Chris Robinson, ironically from Oklahoma, or DeAndre Johnson from Florida State. The issue of not know which QB to prepare for will hurt the OU defense. Whomever the QB is for FAU can lean on RB Devin Singletary, who ran for 1922 yards and 32 touchdowns last season. Remember that the Sooners defense was gashed badly by Georgia in LY's College Football Playoff. FAU also returns 10 starters on defense, so they will be strong on that side of the ball. I look for the underdog to score enough to stay well within this generous opening week number. 8* Florida Atlantic

8* Tulane (8:00 ET): Willie Fritz is hoping to do at Tulane what Dave Clawson has already accomplished at Wake Forest. Fritz will be entering his third year coaching the Green Wave. He has yet to make a bowl game (were very close LY), but this will be his best team yet. Clawson went 3-9 SU in each of his first two-seasons in Winston-Salem, but then jumped to 7 and 8 wins each of the last two years, making a bowl both times. The Demon Deacons were a bit of an overachiever though last year as they went 4-4 in ACC play despite never being favored by more than one point in any game. As for Tulane, they took on nine bowl eligible teams and finished 5-7 SU. Their season came to an end when SMU stopped them at the goal line in a 41-38 loss in the regular season finale. 

Tulane is used to opening the season on a Thursday night. This will be the fifth time in the last six years that they have done so. Two years ago, in Fritz's very 1st game, they lost 7-3 at Wake Forest. So this is technically a revenge spot. Last year's opener was a lot easier as they routed FCS Grambling St 43-14. They played a lot of close games in 2017 w/ seven decided by 7 pts or less. Only three times did they lose by double digits and all took place on the road. One was at Oklahoma. So it's key for the Green Wave to get this game at home. Their largest loss at Yulman Stadium last year was six points. When Fritz came here three years ago, he installed the spread option, but didn't have the right personnel. Now he does and w/ nine starters back, including a senior QB (Jonathan Banks), this should be Tulane's best offense under HC Fritz. 

Wake Forest plays in the tough ACC Atlantic. After finishing in a three-way tie for third place in 2017, I envision a drop this year. With four-year starter John Wolford having graduated and his presumed replacement Kendall Hinton, Jr suspended, the Demon Deacons will enter the season opener w/ a true frosh (Sam Hartman) at QB. On the road, mind you. Defensively, stopping the run was not this team's forte in 2017 (allowed almost 190 YPG), so I expect them to struggle against the spread option. This will be just the third time under Clawson that Wake is a road favorite and they've gone 0-2 ATS previously. Take the points. 8* Tulane

10* Minnesota (7:00 ET): What a horrific spot this is for New Mexico State. The team just played Saturday and looked terrible in a 29-7 (home) loss to Wyoming. Thus, I wish them luck having to visit a Power 5 school tonight. The Aggies were a really nice story in 2017 as they made (and won!) their first bowl game in 57 years (finished the season 7-6 SU). But now reality is about to set in. They were severely outclassed by a Wyoming team that had to replace a first round draft pick at QB (Josh Allen), getting outgained 449-135. The Aggies didn't even score until 1:16 left in the game and they had just seven first downs. This cross-country flight shapes up as a disastrous spot and I'm undaunted when it comes to laying the points. 

PJ Fleck came to Minnesota last year w/ a lot of hype as he'd just led Western Michigan to a New Year's Six Bowl Game. Obviously, life in the Big 10 is a lot tougher. The Gophers opened 2017 at 3-0, but lost seven of their final nine games. They should be improved this season. Note that in his second year at WMU, Fleck led his team to a seven-win improvement. That won't happen here, but the Gophers figure to at least be a factor in the Big 10 West. They'll get better QB play this year and are more experienced. Defensively, they should have little problem against an anemic NMSU attack that couldn't muster anything in the opener.

After factoring in sacks, NMSU had -9 yards rushing last week. RB Jason Huntley averaged just 2.4 yards per carry. That simply won't get it done against anybody. Now with the team likely to fall behind big here, look for the Aggies' offense to become pretty one-dimensional. Fleck understands the importance of starting the season strong and isn't likely to take his foot off the gas here. It helps that New Mexico State figures to be fatigued in the second half, playing its second game in five days after a cross-country trip. Defensively, NMSU figures to have its hands full stopping WR Tyler Johnson. I just don't see anyway the underdog keeps this one close after looking so bad in that first game. 10* Minnesota

10* Hawaii (7:30 ET): Neither of these teams were very profitable at the betting window last season. For Colorado State, that was something new. The Rams had gone 9-4 ATS in 2016, but dropped down to 4-9 ATS in '17, despite posting the same 7-6 straight up record as the year before. HC Mike Bobo enters his fourth season at Fort Collins and has gone 7-6 SU every season. Every season has ended w/ a bowl loss. Over in the MWC's West Division, Hawaii hasn't been profitable - or particularly good on the field - for some time now. Last year, they went 3-9 SU and 3-8-1 ATS. The Warriors are now just 11-26-2 at the betting window the L3 seasons w/ the last two coming w/ Nick Rolovich at the helm. As a result, they're a big underdog for this conference opener. 

Hawaii enters 2018 as one of the least experienced teams in the entire country and has just nine returning starters. They ended last season by losing five straight as well as 9 of their last 10 games. So there isn't a ton of optimism out on the island surrounding this team. However, I do expect an improvement in wins despite a decent amt of talent having transferred out. They will run the run and shoot on offense and a big key here is that WR John Ursua will be back on the field. Ursua was lost to injury in the middle of the season last year. At the time, he had been averaging 131.8 yards and 9.3 catches per game. So he's a big-time weapon for an offense that averaged only 22.8 PPG a year ago. The overall team's decline coincided w/ Ursua's injury, which should not be a surprise.

Since becoming an official member of the Mt West Conference, Hawaii hasn't had much luck against CSU. They've lost all four meetings as conference rivals, including 51-21 LY as 6-pt home dogs. In fact, they're just 1-10 SU the L11 meetings w/ CSU, predating their time in the MWC. Incredibly, Hawaii has won just one time in the Mt Time Zone since 2012! However, the big key here is that the Rams also enter 2018 just as inexperienced as Hawaii. The have the same number of returning starters (9) and will need to find a way to replace a four-year starter at QB (Nick Stevens). Another key is that Bobo has been away from the team due to health concerns (numbness in feet). As the offense's primary playcaller, that's a tough situation. He was hospitalized less than two weeks ago and it was only recently determined (as in Wednesday) that he could be on the sidelines Saturday! The QB situation is also dicey w/ Collin Hill not yet cleared to return. On the defensive side of the ball, there's been massive turnover within the coaching staff. In my opinion, this is way too many points for an inexperienced team to lay in its first game, especially w/ so many major question marks at key spots. 10* Hawaii 

10* Philadelphia (6:40 ET): Last week, I went into great detail about how the absence of QB Carson Wentz was being drastically overvalued. Had Wentz been healthy, I would have made the Eagles roughly a touchdown favorite (at home) over the Falcons. They came in as underdogs, which I thought was ridiculous, and sure enough won the game outright 15-10. Nick Foles is a very capable backup QB in this league. Philadelphia's strength comes not from the quarterback position, but along the offensive and defensive lines. We saw that last week as they held Atlanta below 300 total yards. In fact, the Falcons' lone touchdown was scored off a turnover, on a drive that began at the Philly 18-yard line. Same verse as last week. Take the points.

In case you've been living under a rock, the Vikings pulled off one of the more improable wins in playoff history last week, beating the Saints 29-24 on a walkoff Stefon Diggs' 61-yard touchdown. Obviously, there's a case to be made that the Vikings shouldn't even be in this game and I'm not talking about Case Keenum. Now, maybe if Marcus Williams makes the tackle, Minnesota still kicks a game-winning field goal. Regardless, I don't believe the road team should be favored in this spot. It's the same thing as Atlanta last week. Were Wentz healthy, I'd have the Eagles listed as 3.5-pt favorites (maybe 4). I do not think Wentz is worth a full touchdown to the spread. According to my research, this will be just the SIXTH time under the current playoff format that the host of a conference championship game is an underdog. Two of the previous five featured non-#1 seeds. The last time we saw this situation was two years ago when the Broncos upset the Patriots. 

Lending itself to taking the points is the fact this should be a low-scoring battle between two good defenses. Needless to say, when the season started, no one though it would be Case Keenum vs. Nick Foles in the NFC Champ Game. That speaks to the two defenses here. Remember though; the Eagles have lost only once at home this season and that came in the meaningless regular season finale. They are outscoring visitors by two touchdowns per game. Earlier in the year, the Vikings were a road favorite at Carolina and lost the game outright. Last year on this field, Minnesota lost 21-10, also as a slight road favorite. 10* Philadelphia

8* Jacksonville (3:05 ET): I told you last week that the Jaguars had a great shot at upsetting the Steelers and sure enough that they did, winning 45-42 as touchdown underdogs. Despite being outgained in the contest, rather significantly (545-378), it felt as if they were never in any real danger of losing as they jumped out to a 21-0 lead and it was a meaningless TD (w/ :01 remaining) that made it a one-score final. Yet again, I feel the oddsmakers are underrating this team. One week after allowing 42 points and 545 total yds seems like an inopportune time to mention how good the defense has been, but the fact is they still rank #3 in points allowed and are #1 against the pass. New England may lead the league in point differential, but the Jags are third, so the spread just shouldn't be this high. Take the points.

Now, admittedly, I also played Tennessee against New England in the Divisional Round. That one, clearly, didn't work out. But remember that the Titans were able to take an early 7-0 lead after driving the length of the field. I maintain that the Pats' defense remains vastly overrated. While ranking 5th in points allowed, they were #29 in yards allowed. That "bend but don't break" mentality caused the largest gap between the number of actual points they allowed and what you'd expect them to allow (based on yards). The Titans simply lacked the firepower (and creative playcalling) to take advantage. I still believe that Matt Patricia's (who isn't sticking around to fix this) unit is capable of hurting this team.

During practice this week, Tom Brady reportedly injured his hand. It's not thought to be serious, but still, it's an injury. Patricia isn't the only NE coordinator w/ one foot out the door. OC Josh McDaniels is also reportedly going to leave (to be Indianapolis HC). Remember that the Patriots don't have a LeVeon Bell that they can theoretically lean on here either. They are a pass-first offense and that's not really a great matchup when facing the league's #1 pass defense. As an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 pts, the Jags have covered 12 of their last 16 (3-0 ATS this year). They are 4-2, straight up and against the spread, as a dog of any kind this season. Don't let Jacksonville's 10-6 SU record fool you. They were better than that as they showed last week. The giant "chasm" that is thought to exist between these two teams simply isn't there. 8* Jacksonville

10* Jacksonville (1:05 ET): All the way back in Week 9, the Jaguars beat the Steelers 30-9, right here in Pittsburgh. The final score was misleading though. Total yardage was actually in favor of the Steelers (371-313), yet that hardly mattered as Ben Roethlisberger threw a career-high 5 INT's, two of them returned for Jaguars' touchdowns (in a three-minute span). Jags RB Leonard Fournette then gallivanted his way for a 90-yard touchdown late to make the game REALLY seem like a blowout. Oddsmakers seem unfazed by the result, essentially installing the Steelers as the same size favorite for Sunday's rematch.  So now worries for those Terrible Towel wavers, right? After all, Big Ben is highly unlikely to toss another five interceptions here and no team has ever won in Pittsburgh twice in the same season. Well, except the 2007 Jaguars. But that's irrelevant to the discussion, right? Probably, but I'm taking the points anyway. 

I don't think Pittsburgh is as good as its 13-3 SU record would seem to indicate. They may come into the playoffs as the "hottest" team (won 10 of 11), but their +98 point differential was "only" 7th best in the league (barely ahead of the rival Ravens, who didn't make the playoffs). The key to their record was a league-high eight wins by a TD or less (lost only two such games, ironically one of which came to the Patriots, costing them homefield). Also, despite being off a bye week, it's not like they're w/o attrition. WR Antonio Brown is still recovering from a calf injury. While he's expected to play, the league's top receiver won't be at 100 percent and that's a problem going against the league's top pass defense. On the other side of the ball, CB Artie Burns is still battling knee issues and is one of three defensive players listed as questionable. Then there is the ongoing sage of RB Le'Veon Bell, who essentially told the front office they better not franchise him in the offseason. That could be a distraction. 

As for the Jags, their 10-3 Wild Card win over Buffalo was about as unimpressive as it gets. But there's plenty of reason to like this team in an underdog role Sunday. As mentioned before, they come in w/ the top ranked pass defense in the league. Both times the team was a road dog of 3.5 to 7 pts in the regular season, they won and (obviously) covered. Jacksonville actually outscored its regular season opponents by a wider margin than did Pittsburgh, ranking third in the league in point differential, trailing only New England and Philadelphia (each conference's top seed). Jacksonville also impressively swept the AFC North (Pittsburgh's division) this year, going 4-0 SU/ATS.  The Jags top-ranked rushing offense should find success against a Steelers' defense that ranks just 20th at stopping the run. In the reg season matchup, Fournette went for a career-best 181 yds w/ TWO TD's. 10* Jacksonville 

8* Tennessee (8:15 ET): No one, and I do mean NO ONE is going to give the Titans a chance in this one. Why should they? This is a team that was outscored during the regular season, only to own seven victories by a TD or less. The most recent came on Wild Card Weekend, in improbable fashion, as they rallied back from a 21-3 deficit to defeat Kansas City 22-21 as 9-pt underdogs. Now they must travel to Foxboro to take on the defending Super Bowl Champion Patriots, who are rested and highly unlikely to lose. Thankfully, however, we don't need anything close to a SU win here. The oddsmakers (predictably) are being all too generous in this one, installing Tennessee as a near 2-TD dog. My own power rankings say the spread should be closer to 10. I, for one, don't believe New England is as impervious as they're made out to be, thus I'm fading them in this spot. Take the points. 

Last week saw the Titans take advantage of a suspect Chiefs' defense, one that has been "bend but don't break" for years under Andy Reid. KC was middle of the road in PPG allowed during the regular season (21.2), but 28th in yards at 365.1. I bring this up because New England's own "bend but don't break" mentality is far more severe. The Patriots are a completely misleading 5th in points allowed (18.5 per game) coming into this game as they happen to also rank 29th in yards allowed per game (366.0). Eventually, that catches up w/ a defense. For all the talk about how weak the AFC South (Tennessee's division) is, New England gets to play six games every year against Buffalo, Miami and the Jets. No wonder they win 12+ games every year.

Then there is the matter of the reported inner turmoil engulfing the Patriots' organization. Normally, I put very little stock into such stuff, but here it makes sense. Also, both coordinators (Josh McDaniel and Matt Patricia) may very well have "one foot out the door" at this point as both are heavily rumored to be taking head coaching jobs elsewhere next season. The Patriots are not "as dominant as ever" in 2017 as they were only +28.1 YPG and barely outgained their opponents on a per play basis (6.1 to 6.0). That number of YPP allowed was one of the worst marks in the league. I like the Tennessee offense better w/ Derrick Henry as the feature back as he had 147 yds in the 2nd half alone last week. New England's defense ranks 31st against the run. I don't think this will be a blowout. 8* Tennessee 

10* Philadelphia (4:30 ET): For the 1st time ever, we have a #6 seed favored over a #1 seed in the Divisional Round. In fact, according to my own research this will be just the third time under the current playoff format (dates back to 1990) that the team coming off a bye is a dog. The first two instances, both recent, have produced mixed results. The first occurred in 2011 w/ the Alex Smith-led 49ers beating the Saints 36-32 as 4-pt pups in a great game. The next time (2013) again involved the 49ers, but this time the proverbial "shoe was on the other foot" as they came in as 1.5-pt faves at Carolina and won 23-10. There really was no extenuating circumstance as two why either home team was a dog in those two situations, other than that they were considered inferior to their opponent. 

Here, there is most definitely an "extenuating circumstance." The Eagles are w/o their starting QB Carson Wentz, a MVP candidate that was lost to a season-ending injury late in the regular season. Even if you are adamant about Wentz's importance to the team, it is difficult to justify the change in spread here. My own power rankings, if Wentz were playing, would have the Eagles laying about a touchdown. Even Wentz's biggest supporters could not possibly claim he's worth 10 pts to the spread, a number only reserved for the likes of Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady and even they may not be worth quite that much. Philly is 7-1 SU at home this year, their lone loss coming in the meaningless regular season finale when they rested key players. Yes, I know the offense did not look good in the last two games. But, the coaching staff and first team offense has now had ample time to prepare for Nick Foles being the starter. Foles has been a starter before in this league and looked good against the Giants three weeks ago. The Eagles have a good enough team where the QB does not have to carry them. 

Atlanta impressed many w/ their 26-13 win at Los Angeles last week. However, that was in many ways a "phony blowout." The Falcons were actually outgained 361-322 w/ the difference being 10 pts off two costly Rams' special teams turnovers. Also, there was a late "goal line stand" where the Rams normally would have kicked a FG and it appeared on 4th down that the Falcons got away w/ pass interference. Just last year, the Eagles' defense shut down a far more potent Falcons' offense, holding them to a season-low 15 pts. As discussed in last week's analysis (had Under Atlanta-LA), this year's Falcons' offense is scoring way less than LY (22.3 PPG vs. 34 PPG). Though the weather isn't expected to be nasty Saturday night, Atlanta still is a dome team playing outdoors. Sure, they won last week, but that was in warm in LA where the homefield advantage is about as minimal as anywhere in the league. I expect Foles to play well here and the Eagles' defense (#1 in the league against the run!) to be the difference maker. Atlanta may very well run out of gas after needing to beat Carolina in the reg season finale, then flying out West LW to beat the Rams (now coming back East). They are just 3-6 ATS this year on the road. 10* Philadelphia

10* Alabama (8:45 ET): It's an all-SEC National Championship Game and so it's only appropriate that it will be played in Atlanta. Strangely enough, Alabama and Georgia don't play all that often. This will be just the fifth meeting in the Nick Saban-era (and only the 3rd since '09) and first w/ his fmr DC Kirby Smart as Georgia HC. UGA last beat 'Bama in '07 (Saban's 1st year) and hasn't visited Tuscaloosa since. The last meeting, held two seasons ago in Athens, was won by the Crimson Tide 38-10, as 1.5-pt dogs. The Tide also beat the 'Dawgs here in Atlanta (in the Georgia Dome) back in the 2012 SEC Championship. Ironically, Bama has played the team they just ousted from the playoff, Clemson, more times in the L3 seasons than they have this conference rival. So this is really nothing like the last all-SEC National Champ Game, Bama vs. LSU, back in '11. 

Alabama beat Clemson in the CFB Semifinal (Sugar Bowl), 24-6, as 3.5-pt favorites. That was a heavily hyped revenge game from LY's Champ Game and the end of a compelling trilogy. Compared to most games, and particularly UGA's Rose Bowl win over Oklahoma (more on that later), Bama-Clemson III was a real defensive affair. The Tide held the Tigers to just 188 total yards (gained only 261 themselves). A late INT return made the final score seem more lopsided than the game actually was (10-6 game late in 3Q). That said, Bama remains the dominant force in College Football. They are #1 in the country in defensive efficiency, key because UGA is #2! The key is they allow 4.6 PPG fewer than the Bulldogs. In 9 of 13 games, they've allowed 10 pts or less. This is a team that has won 40 of its last 43 games straight up, including 24 of 26 against the SEC. They've won 11 straight games on turf (9-2 ATS). 

While playing for the National Championship has become "old hat" for Saban and Alabama, Georgia is gunning for its 1st title since 1980, the days of Herschel Walker! Don't be surprised if the spot is a little "big for them." QB Jake Fromm is a true frosh and no team has won a Nat'l Title w/ a true frosh as its starting QB since '85. Yes, they were facing Oklahoma in the Rose Bowl, but the defense giving up 48 pts and 531 total yds is a little concerning, no? Also, there's the matter of Smart being a Saban disciple. Saban is 11-0 SU all-time against former assistants w/ every game decided by at least two touchdowns. Talk about the teacher knowing how to beat the student. Yes, these teams are built similarly, but Bama is better and used to the stage. I don't make a habit of betting against Nick Saban and won't here. Remember that Georgia did lose at Auburn earlier this year, 40-17. 10* Alabama

8* Carolina (4:25 ET): This is lone matchup between division rivals on Wild Card Weekend, thus we're bound to hear about "how hard it is to beat the same team three times in a season" (Saints won both reg season matchups and thus the division, which is why they have homefield advantage here). That's not necessarily true as this situation has seen the team that won both regular season matchups go 11-5 SU since 1990 (but only 8-7-1 ATS). However, we have not seen a three-game season sweep take place in the NFL since 2009 when the Cowboys did it to the Eagles. To me what's even harder to do is cover against the same opponent SEVEN straight times, which is what the Saints are trying to do here. Take the points. 

When New Orleans rolled into Carolina all the way back in Week 3, they were 0-2 SU/ATS on the season and little was being expected from them. Boy, how things changed in a hurry. The Saints would go onto win, 34-13 as 5.5-pt underdogs, and never looked back as they won 11 of their next 13 games. Interestingly enough, that Wk 3 matchup was the ONLY time the Saints won as an underdog all season. They'd go onto beat the Panthers here in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, 31-21, this time as six-point favorites in Week 13. How impressive was it for the Saints to score 30+ in both matchups vs. Carolina? Well, the Panthers allowed only one other 30+ pt game ALL SEASON, to the Patriots back in Week 4. For the year, Carolina allows just 20.4 PPG (same as New Orleans!) and is 7th in yards allowed. 

While New Orleans has won five straight home playoff games, Carolina has never lost in the Wild Card round, going 3-0 SU/ATS all-time. A big difference between this rubber match and the two regular season games will be the presence of Cam Newton's favorite target, TE Greg Olsen (didn't play either reg season game). While I'm not saying Carolina will win outright here, a close loss certainly seems like the strongest possibility. The Panthers were 7-1 SU in one-score games during the regular season and with regression likely to take hold, I can see them losing one here. Getting back to something I mentioned earlier, the Panthers are 0-6 ATS the L6 H2H meetings vs. the Saints, but they have won three of those straight up. Four of those six games have been decided by 5 pts or less. The Panthers were 5-2 SU and ATS as dogs this year. 8* Carolina

10* Jacksonville (1:05 ET): What a story. The Buffalo Bills have ended what was professional sports' longest postseason drought, which embarrassingly dated all the way back to 1999. In a bit of irony, the last time the Bills made the playoffs saw the Titans, Rams and Jaguars all in the field, same as this year! That '99 season (w/ Doug Flutie as the QB!) ended w/ the now infamous "Music City Miracle" in Tennessee. I'm not sure exactly how this one will end, but I'm confident that the time and place will be this Sunday and Jacksonville. Not to ruin a nice story, but the Bills are pretty easily the worst team in the playoff field, if not one of the weaker playoff teams in recent memory. They were outscored during the regular season by 57 pts, yet got in over more qualified teams - Baltimore and Los Angeles - due to a convoluted tiebreaker that only came about when the Ravens shockingly allowed Andy Dalton and Cincinnati to drive the ball down the field and beat them. I'm laying the pts in this Wild Card matchup.

Jacksonville comes into the playoffs off B2B losses, but do not let that erase what was a very impressive regular season. I was certainly a little disappointed to see them lose 15-10 at Tennessee last week (played all starters) and the week before, they gave up a season-high 44 pts to Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers. But over the course of 16 games, only the Patriots and Eagles outscored their opponents by larger margin. The Jags' defense, particularly against the pass, underwent a radical transformation this season. They allow only 169.9 YPG through the air (easily #1), had 55 sacks (#2) and allowed the second fewest points per game (16.8) overall. Facing a Buffalo offense w/ Tyrod Taylor at QB and possibly no RB LeSean McCoy, I look for the Jags to turn in a dominant defensive performance in this one.

Buffalo's offense averages only 18.9 PPG, easily the fewest among playoff entrants. On the road, that number dips even further, down to 17.6. Their strength is running the ball (126 YPG), but w/o McCoy, they are going to be in a lot of trouble. Taylor, left for dead by this organization midseason, averages only 169.5 YPG passing. This is a battle of the league's second worst passing offense against the top passing defense, which is obviously a complete mismatch. Jacksonville also comes in sporting a +10 turnover margin (was higher earlier in the season) and is #2 in the league in takeaways. Buffalo, admittedly, only gave the ball away 16x. Still though, with or w/o McCoy (particularly w/o him!), I see the Bills' offense struggling in this one. There's another mismatch too, this one w/ the Jags' offense going against the Bills' defense. The former led the league in rushing offense while the latter was 30th at stopping the run. For all the talk about Buffalo's "Cinderella Story," let's not forget that this is Jacksonville's 1st playoff appearance since '07 and tickets went very fast for this home game. 10* Jacksonville

8* Oklahoma (5:00 ET): It's not a "classic" (Big 10 vs. Pac 12) Rose Bowl matchup, but the first of two CFP semifinals could be a classic nonetheless as it's a battle of offense vs. defense here w/ Oklahoma taking on Georgia. OU was #4 in the country during the regular season in points per game while UGA is #3 in points allowed. In fact, the top three teams in the country in points allowed (Bama-Clemson-UGA) all made the CFP, leaving the Sooners as the outlier in the department. But Heisman winner Baker Mayfield (sick or not) can more than make up for that discrepancy as Oklahoma has a huge edge at the most important position (QB) in this game. Remember, Georgia's starting QB (Jacob Fromm) is a true freshman. Only one true frosh in the history of College Football (ironically, Oklahoma's Jamelle Holieway, in 1985) has led his team to a National Championship. Due to concerns over Mayfield's health (he's playing obviously!), this line has been bet up and there's now plenty of value on the Sooners.

Led by Mayfield, who meshes so well w/ coordinator turned HC Lincoln Riley, the OU offense averaged 44.9 PPG in the regular season and a FBS-high 583.3 yards per game. The offense is more than just Mayfield, however, as it is loaded at all the skill positions not to mention the offensive line is also one of the best in the country. The running back and receiver groups are both incredibly deep and TE Mark Andrews won the Mackey Award for being the best at his position. There is no doubt in my mind that OU is going to score plenty in this game. The fewest pts they scored in any game this year was 31 and they won both times they were an underdog, beating Ohio State and Oklahoma State on the road. But what about the Sooners' defense? Clearly, it will be labeled the "worst" of the four defenses in the CFP and that's fair. But it's a group that improved down the stretch, most notably holding TCU to 20 and 17 points in two matchups.

Georgia's defense, save for the loss to Auburn, is pretty sick. But it should be noted that they have not faced a passing attack anywhere close to what Oklahoma brings to the table. Generally speaking, QB play is pretty subpar in the SEC these days. I worry about Fromm and the UGA offense, even though they come in averaging almost 35 PPG. I expect the Sooners' defense to "stack the box" and dare Fromm to beat them through the air. The Georgia passing attack only averages 170 YPG and if they fall behind here, that could mean big-time trouble. It's worth mentioning that OU did open as a 1-pt favorite here, so again, I think we've gotten to a point where there's value in taking them. Oklahoma has won and covered the last three times it has taken on a SEC opponent, including bowl wins over Alabama (2013) and Auburn (last year). They averaged 40 PPG in those two bowl wins. 8* Oklahoma 

Update: Auburn's top corner, Carlton Davis, is now out (illness) and that's huge for Central Florida and their offense! 

10* Central Florida (12:30 ET): We have seen the "Group of 5" team step up in the "New Year's Six" Bowl Game before, even winning outright the first two years of the current format w/ Boise State upsetting Arizona in the 2015 Fiesta Bowl and Houston doing the same to Florida State in the 2016 Peach Bowl. Last year, your ATS results may vary as Wisconsin beat Western Michigan 24-16, a game that fell right on/near the number. But the MAC always stinks in bowl games and this year we're back to an AAC team, UCF, who was the ONLY team in the country to finish the regular season unbeaten. Auburn, after losing the SEC Championship Game to Georgia, has to be a little disappointed w/ this bowl assignment and I'm taking the points.

UCF comes in w/ the top ranked offense in the country, averaging an astounding 49.4 points per game. That's a big reason why HC Scott Frost was hired away by Nebraska. Frost will coach this game though and the "Group of 5" teams have become used to this spot as Houston's Tom Hermann and Western Michigan's PJ Fleck were both set to depart when they coached their bowl games the L3 years. Now, UCF's conference brethren Memphis (who was #2 in FBS in scoring) was just held in check in its bowl game by Iowa State. UCF will have to deal w/ an even more stout defense (Auburn #7 in def efficiency), but as alluded to above, it will also probably be a less motivated one than what Memphis faced vs. Iowa State. It needs to be stated the the Golden Knights scored 45+ pts eight times during the regular season, including each of the last four games.

Let's point out that Auburn did lose three times this year. Now those losses were to Clemson, Georgia (both in CFP!) and LSU (who they led by 20). But still, it's not like they are infallible. All their big wins this year, most notably the Alabama one and the first Georgia game, came at Jordan-Hare. This is always a tough matchup for the Power 5 school because it's hard to get motivated to play a smaller school, especially when you're in a position like Auburn is here, that being you hoped to be in the playoff (before losing the SEC Champ Game). Note the Tigers were only 3-4-2 ATS as favorites this year, including 2-3-2 laying double digits. Now those seven games all found them favored by 15 or more pts, but still, it was also against lesser competition. RB Kamryn Pettway will not play here for the Tigers and despite missing the L5 games, he still led the SEC in rush yards per game. Auburn has lost three of its last four bowl games. 10* UCF

8* Jacksonville (4:25 ET): Tennessee has everything (playoff berth!) to play for here while Jacksonville has nothing to play for here. The Jags have already clinched the AFC South and will host a playoff game on Wild Card Weekend as the AFC's #3 seed. That said, "stranger things" have happened in Week 17  and by all accounts, the Jags are playing their starters here. If this were a "regular week," Jacksonville would absolutely be favored here, even on the road. Their #1 scoring defense giving up 44 pts to the 49ers last week has to have left a "bad taste" in the players' mouths and I'm banking on that there's nothing they'd rather do, then knock out a division rival from playoff contention. The Titans have lost three in a row and have been outscored and outgained this season. Take the points.

This is a revenge spot for the Jags, who lost at home to the Titans, 37-16 all the way back in Week 2. It's their worst loss of the season and was the most points allowed, until last week. However, that performance is in no way indicative of the kind of season the Jags have enjoyed. They are #3 in the league in point differential (#1 among AFC teams) and outgaining foes by an impressive 86.5 YPG (they are +0.8 yards per play). As mentioned earlier, the defense was #1 in scoring going into last week (now #2) and is still #3 in yards allowed. The offense will be w/o WR Marquise Lee for a second straight game, but also gets back Allan Hurns after a six-week absence. Yes, a +13 turnover margin has been huge for this team. But they are very good and worthy of being AFC South Champs.

Tennessee, on the other hand, is very fortunate to even be in playoff contention. As mentioned earlier, they have been outscored and outgained over the course of the season. They've dropped three in a row, by only a total of 14 pts, but that was "due" as they'd previously gone 5-1 SU in games decided by 7 pts or less. This is the first time in his career that QB Marcus Mariota will even suit up for a Week 17 game. He has not been good down the stretch and the offense will also be w/o DeMarco Murray for the first time in two seasons here. On the defensive side of the ball, the Titans' top CB (Logan Ryan) may also be out. I'm counting on a Titans' gagjob here as Jacksonville is a much better team. 8* Jacksonville

10* Carolina (4:25 ET): Ok, so here's the setup for this one. If Atlanta wins, then they grab the NFC's final playoff spot. (They can still make it w/ a Seattle loss too). Carolina has already clinched a playoff spot, but in a field that is already pretty well set, the Panthers position is the most volatile. They can finish anywhere from #2 to #5 based on how the day goes. The best case scenario for them involves both Minnesota and New Orleans losing (note: both are favored) and them winning. That would result in Carolina leaping to the #2 seed, winning the NFC South and getting a 1st round bye! Minnesota plays at 1:00 ET and if they win, then that scenario is dead, but regardless, the Panthers will take the field at 4:25 ET knowing they have a chance to win the South (New Orleans also plays at 4:25 ET): As long as the Saints don't take a huge early lead (presuming the Panthers are scoreboard watching), we shouldn't worry about effort here. Take the points w/ the better team.

Carolina won the season's 1st meeting, 20-17 as three-point favorites. I felt that anything above a field goal for this rematch would mean value on the Panthers and because of the situation the Falcons are facing, the oddsmakers have obliged. Atlanta did finish w/ a slight edge in total yds in that 1st meeting, but Carolina had more first downs and ran for 200 yards. The Panthers also held a 10-pt lead for most of the 4th quarter. They've been outstanding in the underdog role all season long, going not only 5-1 ATS, but also 5-1 straight up. They've won three straight - all by a TD or less - and while they were certainly lucky to win at Tampa Bay LW, this has been the BEST team in the league at winning close this year, going 7-1 straight up in one-score games.

While Carolina ran for 200+ yards in that Week 9 matchup, Atlanta had no such success over land as their RB combo of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman were held to 51 yds - total. Carolina's defense, which has been one of the best in the league this season, will be back at full strength this week as both DE Charles Johnson and LB Thomas Davis will return from suspensions. While both of these teams allow just 20.3 PPG, Carolina holds its foes to fewer yards per game. Atlanta is surprisingly only 4-3 SU/ATS at home this season while Carolina is 5-2 SU/ATS on the road. 10* Carolina

8* NY Giants (1:00 ET): This is a game where nothing is on the line as both teams are eliminated from playoff contention. In the case of the 2-13 Giants, they've been out of playoff contention for some time in what has been a complete disaster of a season. Now, I had them ranked pretty high on my list of "likely disappointments" for 2017, but even at my most pessimistic, I could not have envisioned this. Already, there have been changes at head coach and GM, so clearly the organization is already thinking about next season when they'll likely be starting someone at QB not named Eli Manning. But in what could be Eli's final start at Giants Stadium, I expect the G-Men to show up. It's not like 7-8 Washington has any reason to be motivated. This will be just the third time in the last dozen years that the Redskins are a road favorite over a NFC East rival. They didn't fare too well the 2nd time, which was earlier this year in Dallas, as they were routed (38-14!) by a short-handed Cowboys team (no Elliott). I'll take the points here.    

The Giants have not won since Ben McAdoo was fired, but they did play hard in their last home game, which came against a division rival (Eagles). In that game, they actually finished w/ a nice edge in total yards (504-341). Despite him being an alleged "offensive guru," the Giants NEVER scored 30+ points under McAdoo. It was back to their old selves last week as they were shut out 23-0 in Arizona. That said, they also had the edge in total yds there, albeit just barely (293-289). One of the Cardinals' three touchdowns came from the defense late in the game and over half their total yardage came on just two drives.

The Giants are w/o two key members of their secondary (Landon Collins and Eli Apple, who ironically are feuding), but the offense showed enough life in the Philly game to give me confidence here. Washington is not favored often (only five times previously this season) and they've been decimated by injuries - on both sides of the ball. The offense's yards per play have gone WAY down this season and speaking of potentially departing QB's, Kirk Cousins may have "one foot out the door" here. The defense, which is second worst in the league at stopping the run, are w/o key players at all levels. On the road this year, the Redskins are -7.5 PPG. 8* NY Giants

8* Wisconsin (8:00 ET): The Big 10 has proven itself to be quite formidable this bowl season, topping all conference's w/ a perfect 5-0 SU record (4-1 ATS), led by Ohio State's 24-7 win over USC last night. Wisconsin is the team the Buckeyes beat in the Conference Championship and while they're prob NOT the Big 10's 2nd best team (Penn State is), the Badgers were unbeaten going into their last game and that should be respected, even though the Orange Bowl against Miami qualifies as a "true" road game. This is a line that dropped quite a bit during the week (I didn't really understand why), but has since risen back. That reminds me of the Va Tech-OK State betting pattern where I was on the favorite (who ended up covering). Lay the points here. 

Remember when "The U was back?" How long is this tired narrative going to be pushed. Like Wisconsin, Miami was undefeated late in the year. They were thinking playoff following a 41-8 demolition of Notre Dame here in Coral Gables and then the team ran its mark to 10-0 (SU) after beating Virginia 44-28 the following week. But then, the bottom dropped out. They were upset at Pitt (24-14), as 12-pt favorites, in the regular season finale. Then, Clemson absolutely hammered them in the ACC Title Game, 38-3. Now injuries played a significant role in that late season swoon, but it's not like they've gone away. TE Chris Herndon is out as is WR Ahmmon Richards. That's two of the team's top receivers right there. QB Malik Rosier was awful down the stretch, completing less than 50% of his passes the L6 games. Oh by the way, the 'Canes are also w/o RB Mark Walton. 

None of that is good news when getting set to face what is, statistically speaking, the top defense in all the land. Wisconsin gives up just 253.2 YPG (only 92.6 on the ground) and 13.2 points per game. All the focus here will probably be on Miami's turnover chain and while it's true they did force 30 turnovers over the course of the season, Wisconsin wasn't far behind w/ 26. The 'Canes live and die by TO's, but I'll trust QB Alex Hornibrook to be careful w/ the ball here. The Badgers were 5-0 SU in the reg season as a road favorite, covering the spread in four of those games. 8* Wisconsin

10* Washington (4:00 ET): What a difference one year as makes as last year at this time, we were having a discussion over which of these two teams belonged in the College Football Playoff. Washington got the nod and was generally outclassed by Alabama, losing 24-7 as 2-TD underdogs. Penn State was "relegated" to a Rose Bowl appearance and after an impressive start to that game (led big), they lost to USC, 52-49. So both schools will be looking for a bit of atonement in this year's edition of the Fiesta Bowl. Both teams went 10-2 SU in the reg season, neither making their respective conference title game. Washington lost to Arizona State and Stanford (both on the road) while Penn State fell to Ohio State and Michigan State (also both on the road). It seems like an even matchup, but I'll take the points.

The Fiesta Bowl has been kind to Penn State in the past as they are 6-0 SU all-time in this game, including a win in the de facto 1986 Title Game (vs. Miami FL). Their two losses this year came by a combined four points and over the L2 seasons, four of their five losses have been by a field goal or less (49-10 loss at Michigan the exception). I went "against the grain" w/ this Nittany Lions team for 2017 and predicted they would disappoint, so two reg season losses did not surprise me. They are a VERY public side here, something else that doesn't surprise me, as they're the more "known" commodity. But what bettors really need to know is that Washington has one of the top run defenses in the country (just 2.6 YPG allowed) and that's the key to beating Penn State. 

In their losses to Ohio State and Michigan State, the Nittany Lions ran the ball for only 156 yds total, despite the presence of Saquon Barkley. I expect them to struggle to establish the run again here. Note that this game marks the first time all season UW has been an underdog. Over the L2 seasons, the playoff game vs. Alabama is the ONLY time Chris Petersen's team has been getting points. We have two offenses that have both scored 30+ pts ten times during the regular season, but both also allow 15.5 PPG or fewer (UW allows 14.5 PPG). Penn State's offensive line is a little suspect (74th in sack rate allowed) and I believe the Washington defense, led by Myles Gaskin, will be the difference in this one. 10* Washington

8* Memphis (12:30 ET): So, Iowa State entered bowl season tied w/ Fresno State (who ended up covering their bowl game) for the best ATS record in the country. Led by a defense which allowed just 21.0 PPG, they pulled upsets of Oklahoma and TCU along the way. So the Cyclones certainly won't be intimidated here by the high-flying offense of Memphis (47.7 PPG). However, there are several disadvantages they are facing here. Not only is Memphis' offense far superior (ISU only +21 YPG), they also have a large edge on special teams. Then there is a matter that this is the Liberty Bowl, Memphis' home stadium. The Tigers won all seven home games during the regular season, by an average of 19.3 PPG, while averaging 50.1 themselves. Memphis averaged slightly more PPG than both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, ISU's two Big 12 rivals.

I think it's definitely fair to say that Iowa State overachieved in 2017. They were only favored in four games. They won all four of those, also going 4-0 ATS. But the key was pulling three different outright upsets and going 6-2 ATS as a dog. I don't see them "sneaking up" on Memphis here. Originally picked for second to last in the 10-team Big XII, the 'Clones are looking for their first bowl win since 2009. They have not been to a bowl since 2012. Each of the previous four seasons saw them win three games or fewer. It was not a particularly strong finish to the regular season w/ them dropping three of the final four games. I just don't see the offense necessary here to keep pace with the favored Tigers. A similar call-back I have is to the Va Tech-OK State game where I sided w/ the latter (was correct). Also, I should point out that the 1st time we saw a team play its bowl at home, it was a complete blowout w/ FAU burying Akron.

The Memphis' offense was not only second nationally in points per game, it was also fourth in yards per game (548.2). Led by QB Riley Ferguson, who completed 63% of his pass attempts for 3,971 yds and 36 TDs, they are lethal. All-American WR Anthony Miller had 92 catches for 1400+ yds, 17 of them going for TD's. RB Darrell Henderson averaged a ridiculous 8.9 yards per carry w/ he and Patrick Taylor, Jr combining for over 1900 yards over land. A final key here is turnovers. Iowa State won all seven games where it was positive in TO margin and winless when it did not win that battle. They have not lost a single fumble this season, which is somewhat preposterous. However, Memphis actually has a better TO margin at +14 vs. +11. 8* Memphis

10* Northwestern (4:30 ET): The reality of the modern bowl structure is that you're going to always have a fair number of subpar teams in the postseason. This year saw seven teams make a bowl that were outscored during the regular season. One of those is Kentucky, who - at least among "Power 5" (conference) reps - may be the weakest school involved. Not only were the Wildcats outscored by an average of about a full field goal per game, but they were also outgained by about 75 yards per game as well! Being that they are an overachiever, you also might be surprised to learn that they were 3-9 ATS, the worst such record among bowl teams. They rode a very easy SEC schedule (no 'Bama, Auburn or LSU!) to get here. 

Northwestern, unlike UK, closed its regular season strong. While it was apparent that no one would overtake Wisconsin in the Big 10 West, the Wildcats tried their best by winning and covering the last seven games! They did lose to both Penn State and Wisconsin (two top 10 teams), but besides a head-scratcher against Duke, that was it. Their 9-3 ATS record is among the best in the country and they were 8-1 SU/7-2 ATS favorites. Furthermore, while Kentucky was outscored and outgained during the year, N'western not only outgained opponents by almost 50 YPG, they also outscored them by almost 10 PPG. Basic metrics indicate that this year's Music City Bowl is a real mismatch. 

UK was outscored 86-20 in its final two regular season games, which came against Georgia and Louisville. Overall, they've dropped four of six. Defensively, Northwestern would appear to have a giant edge. They allowed just 20 points - total - the last three games (just 1 TD in the last two) while UK allowed 40+ pts three different times and 35.8 PPG overall over the second half of the season. There are also two specific areas where the Wildcats have the edge defensively. One is against the run (which will be handy here as run is what both offenses like to do). N'western is top 10 in the nation in yards allowed per carry (3.3) while UK is 89th (4.8). In the red zone, the Wildcats are dead last among bowl teams allowing points on over 92% of possessions. N'western is third best at 67.7%. Kentucky has not been successful in bowl games recently, last winning one in 2009 (lost last three). This is, on paper, one of the biggest mismatches of the entire bowl season. 10* Northwestern

8* Texas A&M (1:00 ET): After going 3-9 SU in each of Dave Clawson's first two seasons on the job, Wake Forest has now put forth B2B 7-win campaigns and is now in position to achieve its most wins in any season since the 2008 team. But they'll have to get by Texas A&M in this year's Belk Bowl to do so. While the Demon Deacons somewhat surprised me w/ a 7-5 SU reg season, A&M was largely a disappointment in finishing w/ the same record and that cost (now) fmr HC Kevin Sumlin his job. While they're thrilled to be welcoming in Jimbo Fisher (left Florida State) next year in College Station, there has been some question over the Aggies' level of motivation. I'm not buying it and will take the points even though WF is playing a virtual home game in Charlotte (not far from campus in Winston-Salem).

Wake Forest finished w/ the same efficiency rating at Miami did in the reg season, which may surprise some folks. QB John Wolford improved exponentially this year, going from a negative TD-INT ratio his first three seasons as the starter to 25-6 this year. That improvement is also tied to an experienced offensive line, but that group will have its hands full in this game w/ an A&M front seven that was top five nationally in sacks (despite losing Myles Garrett to the NFL!). This is - easily - the best offense WF has had under Clawson, but remember they are w/o top WR Greg Dortch. His absence made the winning record all the more surprising to me. At 8-3-1 ATS overall, the Deacons definitely qualify as a "surprise." They did win their bowl game LY (as a 12-pt underdog!) against another school (Temple) that was going through a HC change, but I'm interested to see how they now perform in the role of favorite. There were just two times in the reg season that WF was asked to lay more than a TD against a FBS foe, one of them being the finale against Duke, which they promptly lost outright. 

Certainly, laying a field goal to a SEC opponent is uncharted territory for the Demon Deacons. I see two pretty evenly matched teams here w/ the coaching change for A&M being the reason for the field goal advantage. Like A&M, the Deacons have a suspect defense, one that allows 444 YPG for the season and 569 yards over the L4 games. So, look for the Aggies to be able to move the ball in this one. In the five games w/ Nick Starkel as the starting QB, their offense averaged 36 PPG. He will play here. The five teams that beat A&M this year were: LSU, Auburn, Miss St, Alabama and UCLA. With the exception of the Bruins (who A&M led big in the season opener), all those teams are better than Wake Forest. 8* Texas A&M

8* Washington State (9:00 ET): We've seen a significant line move for this year's edition of the Holiday Bowl. Clearly, early bettors are banking on the notion that Michigan State will be "motivated" by being "slighted" in favor of rival Michigan, who got the better bowl spot on New Year's Day (Outback Bowl vs. S Carolina) despite losing to Sparty in the regular season. In my mind, what we now have is some nice value on a Wazzu team that should be hungry to atone for LY's bowl "no-show" against Minnesota. This is a program that still only has ONE bowl victory going all the way back to 2003. Perhaps, all things considered, it should be the Cougars that are the more motivated side come Thursday night. Take the points. 

Both teams finished their respective regular seasons 9-3 SU. Both come in ranked in the top 20. Truthfully, I wasn't as high as the pollsters were on either team. I said it multiple times throughout the regular season, but Michigan State was among the most fortunate teams in the country, record-wise. Consider that their point differential in Big 10 play was only +15 despite a 7-2 SU record. To put that number in its proper perspective, consider that Penn State (also 7-2 SU in Big 10 play) outscored its Big 10 foes by 186 points! Ohio State's point differential was +238! Sparty's Big 10 point differential was actually "in the black" (negative!) before thumping Rutgers, 40-7, in the last game. All other Big 10 wins were by 10 pts or less, four by a TD or less and that doesn't even include "stealing" a cover vs. Indiana w/ a late TD (won by 8). 

Wazzu outgained opponents by 132.2 YPG, better than MSU's 80.5. I have them rated slightly higher than Sparty in my own personal power ratings, so that's where the value comes in. I concede that the Cougs haven't done a whole lot worth mentioning outside Pullman this season. However, a key here is that their defense is far better than most realize. I expect this to be a low-scoring game where points could be at a premium. Note that in HALF their games this year, Michigan State failed top 18 points on offense! Led by QB Luke Falk, Wazzu comes in averaging 446.4 YPG on offense. They scored 30+ in eight games. Maybe they're held in check, but plus the points they are the play. 8* Washington State

8* Oklahoma State (5:15 ET): Both of these squads had bigger aspirations than the Camping World Bowl, but ironically I thought both had the potential for more severe regression in 2017. Va Tech was coming off a 10-4 SU year where they represented the Coastal in the ACC Title Game. But, from the start this year, I preferred Miami over them. A 7-1 SU start was a total mirage as the Hokies were, in fact, hammered down in Coral Gables. To be frank, they played a pretty weak schedule for an ACC squad and lost by double digits to both top 10 teams they faced. Their defense is good, but I just don't see them having the offense neccessary to keep up w/ QB Mason Rudolph and the Pokes. Lay the points.

Oklahoma State finished their regular season 9-3 SU, same as Virginia Tech. A win here and they make it three straight 10-win seasons for HC Mike Gundy (and 4 out of 5!). In essence, the Cowboys' hopes and dreams for the year ended w/ a 62-52 loss to rival Oklahoma in early November. (Bedlam played early this year). I'm not putting much stock into a late season loss to Kansas State as the Pokes had little to play for while the Wildcats were fighting for bowl eligibility. Another similarity (besides WL record) to Va Tech is the Pokes lost to the two best teams on the schedule and beat West Virginia. But they also beat Iowa State, which is a better win than anything Va Tech has on its resume. There were actually two common opponents (that both beat) - WVU and Pitt. Oklahoma State's MOV was 49 pts while Va Tech's was only 13.

This is the classic "clash of styles" matchup. Oklahoma State averages 46.3 PPG (3rd in FBS). Va Tech allows only 13.5 (5th). When I look at which unit is likely to come closer to its average, I heavily lean to the former's offense. For the 1st time in Big 12 history, we saw a 4,000+ yd QB (Rudolph), a 1,000+ yd RB (Justice Hill) and TWO 1,000+ yd WR's (James Washington and Marcell Ateman). Washington is the nation's top receiver. The Pokes were #2 in total yardage per game (575.5) and #1 in passing (392.3). Yes, Va Tech posted three regular season shutouts, but two of those were against Delaware (FCS) and Old Dominion. Getting back to the Hokies' inability to "keep pace" here, an already suspect offense will be w/o its leading rusher (Travon McMillian) and receiver (Cam Phillips). QB Josh Jackson only has a 9-7 TD-INT ratio vs. Power 5 teams and the Cowboys' defense is better than you think. 8* Oklahoma State

10* Iowa (5:15 ET): The Hawkeyes have (infamously) not won a bowl game since 2010, dropping five in a row - both SU and ATS. But there's a big difference between this year's Pinstripe Bowl and those last five postseason appearances, that being they'll be favored here! Sure enough, four of those last five bowl games saw an unranked Hawkeyes squad "stepping up in class" to take on a ranked foe. That won't be the case this year vs. Boston College. B.C. does enter this game having won five of six, including victories over bowl teams Florida State, Virginia and Louisville. But they also lost starting QB Anthony Brown late in the season. I'm "hanging my hat" on Iowa being highly motivated here and I shouldn't have to remind you that they absolutely walloped Ohio State 55-24 last month. 

This will not be confused with a Big 12 regular season game. These two squads like to run the ball and play good defense. Both are top seven nationally against the pass. The final result will likely be decided by who runs the ball more effectively. Boston College RB AJ Dillon, a freshman, went for 1432 yards. Twice he went for 200+ yds in a game. Not to be outdone, Iowa's Akrum Wadley was a 1,000+ yard back and is also a receiving threat. The key though is the rushing defenses. B.C. is 103rd in the nation, giving up 5.0 yards per carry (198 YPG!). Iowa is significantly better in that area, allowing only 4.1 YPG and they also allowed only nine rushing TD's ALL YEAR! The Eagles defense may also be w/o DE Harold Landry, which would be significant.

Again, Iowa beat Ohio State 55-24 this season. Thus, it was somewhat head-scratching that they finished w/ losses in two of the final three games, including one to Purdue. They scored just 29 pts total in the two games after beating Ohio State. But they did win six of the seven games they were favored in (straight up). They actually average 28.3 PPG and give up only 19.9. That's a better scoring margin than B.C. against what grades out as a harder schedule. I feel this line has decreased solely based on past Iowa bowl failures, but this is the first time in a long time where the Hawkeyes enter the bowl as the better team on paper. I have them rated as better on BOTH sides of the football. 10* Iowa 

8* Florida State (1:30 ET): Save for Florida Atlantic (covered!), no team is a bigger favorite this bowl season than the Seminoles. This may surprise you given that this was the most disappointing season down in Tallahassee in recent memory. Not only did the 'Noles need to reschedule a 12th reg season game (vs. LA Monroe!) just to get to six wins, there's been some debate over their bowl eligibility as one of those wins was against a Delaware State program and maybe shouldn't have counted. But where there's no debate is FSU's talent level compared to that of Southern Miss. Playing for an interim HC, there is a question of motivation here, but I feel the 'Noles show up "ready to play" and I'll lay the points.

Comparing the stats between these teams is not "apples to apples" as one team plays in the ACC and the other in Conference USA. Southern Miss won three straight and six of eight to finish the reg season at 8-4 SU, but the teams they beat are a real "rogue's gallery." Their "best" wins were on the road against La Tech and Marshall, both on the road. But those also came by a combined eight points. The other six wins were all against non-bowl teams. In fact, the Golden Eagles didn't even play a single opponent ranked in my top 65! So that's why they're such a prohibitive underdog in this spot. They shared one common opponent w/ FSU in the reg season, that being La Monroe. While the Seminoles beat the WarHawks by 32, the USM prevailed by just 11.

Florida State's season essentially was tanked in the opener, when they lost to Alabama (were ranked #3 in the country at the time!) w/ QB Deondre Francois being lost for the season to injury. There's also a number of "healthy scratches" here with some players electing to skip the Independence Bowl in order to prepare for the NFL Draft. But those who remain will play hard for interim HC Odell Haggins, who has been a position coach here dating back to 1994 and may be coaching for his job w/ the Willie Taggert regime set to take over next year. It's also interesting that despite the majority of bets in this game being place on the underdog, the line has actually increased. That's typically a sign of "sharper dollars" being on the other side. 8* Florida State

8* UCLA (9:00 ET): This is one of two bowl games on Tuesday's slate where the line has been dramatically impacted by the status of one team's QB. In this instance, Josh Rosen (concussion) is still not cleared to play for UCLA and that has them now listed as sizable underdogs to Kansas State in this year's edition of the Cactus Bowl. Rosen, who I would choose if I had the #1 draft pick in April (assuming he declares), would undoubtedly be a significant loss for UCLA. But often times, with injuries such as this one, we see an overreaction by the marketplace and that's what I'm banking on here. There's always the outside chance Rosen does play (and we'd have a great line if he did!), but at the same time, it's not as if Kansas State's defense is very good. Take the points. 

 Yes, UCLA's defense is very bad at stopping the run and K-State has a significant edge on special teams. However, as far as the UCLA run defense goes, will the Wildcats be able to take advantage? Their offense is down to a third-string QB (Skylar Thompson). Tip your cap to the way this team finished its reg season (wins over Iowa State and Oklahoma State), but those two victories came by a combined six points. Kansas State is a program that I'd prefer much more in the underdog role, not as a favorite. They were favored only FIVE times in the reg season, one of those against a FCS program, another against one of the worst FBS teams in the country (Charlotte) and then also Baylor and Kansas (went a combined 2-22). They're being overvalued here. 

It's not like the Kansas State pass defense is very good either. So either Rosen or backup Devon Modster, should have a very big night here. The Wildcats' secondary allowed a completion percentage of 62.2 in the reg season with opposing QB's averaging 310 YPG. They gave up 432 YPG overall. As maligned as UCLA's run defense has been (rightfully so), they improved down the stretch (held USC to only 153 yds on 41 carries!) and Kansas State's offensive line will be w/o its starting right tackle Dalton Risner. If this is HC Bill Snyder's "swan song" for K-State, the team will certainly want to send him out a winner. But the UCLA players will certainly want to impress the incoming Chip Kelly regime as well. 8* UCLA 

8* West Virginia (1:30 ET): Most are simply writing WVU off here as they enter the Heart of Dallas Bowl w/o their starting QB, Will Grier. That's definitely a big blow, but NOT something they can't overcome and in the past, I've seen bowl teams overcome greater adversity. Furthermore, as a result of the Grier injury, the oddsmakers have gotten REALLY generous here. Remember that w/o Grier, the Mountaineers still scored 31 points and gained nearly 400 yds in the regular season finale. Now, they still lost because they were facing Oklahoma and the Sooners' offense is an absolute juggernaut. But Utah is not Oklahoma and won't be scoring anywhere near 59 points. I like the idea of WVU HC Dana Holgorsen having this much time to prepare. Take the points. 

Rather than "roll over" w/o their starting QB, I expect this dog to be quite motivated Tuesday afternoon. The West Virginia seniors have yet to cover a bowl game, winning only one and that was the 2015 Cactus Bowl (by a single point!) over Arizona State. Things were going quite well in Morgantown before the Grier injury as the team was 7-3 SU (went 10-3 SU last season). But they lost the L2 games to Texas and Oklahoma. Both of those teams are better than what they'll face here. Yes, I concede not having Grier does put a damper on the 16th ranked offense in FBS. But we saw Holgorsen get creative in the Oklahoma game (wildcat!) and I'm sure he'll have multiple wrinkles here. Also, the irony is that it many be the WVU defense that keeps them in this one. Exotic blitzing is something we see regularly from DC Tony Gibson and Utah's offensive line is not good. 

In addition to the Grier injury, another reason the Utes are getting plenty of "love" here is HC Kyle Whittingham's 10-1 SU bowl record. But how many times during that stretch have the Utes been an underdog? (A: more than not). The Utes were 6-2 SU/ATS as favorites this regular season, but just two of those games were away from Salt Lake and both came early (as in September). They also won both (Arizona, BYU) by just six points each. Too many people are writing off the Mounties here and I'll play 'contrarian' and grab the points. 8* West Virginia

10* Fresno State (8:30 ET): When you talk about this year's biggest "surprise" teams, the name Fresno State simply must be on your short list. In the 1st year under HC Jeff Tedford (remember him?), the Bulldogs improved from 1-11 to 9-4 SU, making it the best turnaround job in the entire country. They won a division (MWC West) that was supposed to be San Diego State's for the taking and played Boise State very tough in the Conference Championship Game (I had 'em plus the points). It's been a LONG time since FSU won a bowl game (2007), so they will be highly motivated, something that I'm not sure will be the case on the Houston side. Also, Fresno State is no stranger to making this trip to the Island as they played here during the regular season. 

Houston is a program two years removed from upsetting Florida State in the Peach Bowl. They did not fare well in LY's bowl game, a 34-10 loss to San Diego State in Las Vegas. Now in their first year under the direction of Major Applewhite (Tom Herman bolted for Texas), they'll again have to play through some coaching turbulence as OC Brian Johnson has left for the same gig at Florida. Applewhite was previously the OC under Herman, so that may not matter much, but it's certainly not a positive. While the Cougars did upset USF during the regular season, they also suffered outright losses to both Tulsa and Tulane. We've seen teams unaccustomed to making the trip to Hawaii struggle in the bowl game before (Middle Tenn LY, Cincy two years ago). I wouldn't be surprised to see that happen to UH here.

Fresno State won on this field, 31-21, as 9.5-pt favorites just last month. That started a four-game ATS win streak to end the regular season. Overall, this Bulldogs team was tied (w/ Iowa State) for the best ATS record in the country at 10-2-1. I was pretty shocked to see Houston scored more than 28 pts only four times in the reg season. Fresno State has a top 10 defense nationally in scoring, allowing just 17.2 PPG. (They rank 9th). Three of the teams above them are in the College Football Playoffs, plus you have the likes of Wisconsin, Penn State and Washington. So this is a very good defense, the more motivated side and a team more accustomed to venue. 10* Fresno State

8* NY Giants (4:25 ET): These are two bad teams that I wouldn't want to lay points with, so the Cardinals are the ones to be faded this week, simply by default. Arizona is 4-9-1 ATS overall and is just 1-3 SU when favored, winning those games by an average of just one point per game. This is an offense that has not topped 16 pts in three consecutive games and is now being piloted by QB Drew Stanton again. Stanton was the starter for two games before spraining his knee back in Week 12. According to HC Bruce Arians, Stanton's knee "isn't completely recovered" and "he's still in a fair amount of pain." That should tell you all you need to know about Blaine Gabbert, who started the previous five games.

The Cards were able to win two of those five games w/ Gabbert as the starter, both wins at home, those being somewhat shocking upsets of Jacksonville and Tennessee. But they have failed to gain even 300 total yds in B2B games and haven't scored a touchdown in 10 quarters! So again, not sure why you'd want to lay points with this team right now. All they've put on the scoreboard the last two weeks is nine Phil Dawson field goals. Defensively, they've been good. But the Giants' offense finally showed some life last week w/ a 29-point effort against the Eagles. It was their most points scored in any game the L2 seasons and they also gained a season-high 504 yards!

Now this season has obviously been a disaster for the G-Men. Even I, who predicted big-time regression from them at the start of the season, could not have envisioned things would be this bad. HC Ben McAdoo was fired for his atrocious handling of QB Eli Manning, who is probably playing for pride at this point. Going back to the numbers last week, we saw what he's still capable of doing. With McAdoo gone, the team can at least play loose. Also, NY is pretty much "locked" into the #2 draft position next Spring. So, a win wouldn't necessarily "screw things up" either. While they're 0-3 SU and ATS as favorites, the Giants are a more respectable 6-5 ATS getting points this season. They're also 4-3 ATS on the road as opposed to 2-5 ATS at home. This one just boils down to the fact I don't see why you'd lay points w/ Arizona, who has not been favored since Week 9. 8* NY Giants

8* Seattle (4:25 ET): Since I became a professional handicapper (back in 2011), I'm not sure if there's been a single instance of "Seahawks stock" being any lower than it is right now. A number of injuries, primarily on the defensive side of the ball, was going to make qualifying for the playoffs a sixth straight time a "tall order." But last week's humiliation at the hands of the Rams (lost 42-7 at HOME) all but ended that aspiration. Now Russell Wilson and company have to hit the road to face a fellow 8-6 team, one that has renewed optimism due to the return of RB Ezekiel Elliott. That team is of course the Cowboys, who have now won three straight after being "left for dead" themselves on Thanksgiving. 

Dallas was fortunate to win last week in Oakland as Raiders QB Derek Carr fumbled through the end zone when it appeared his team was on the verge of going in for the game-winning score. Before that, the Cowboys had beaten the Redskins and Giants, two other "also-rans." I realize this is a "different team" w/ Elliott in the backfield, but they still could be w/o their best offensive lineman (Tyron Smith) and as we saw in the Atlanta game last month, that's a very big deal. Even w/ Elliott back and the Seahawks hurting, this game represents the Cowboys' toughest test since getting clobbered by the Chargers on Thanksgiving. When facing a team that has a winning record, in the second half of the season, America's Team is just 2-9 ATS the previous three seasons. 

I view this as a GREAT "buy low" spot on Seattle. First off, Wilson is 13-5-1 ATS as an underdog in his career. The L3 weeks have seen the Seahawks play the Eagles, Jaguars and Rams, who I - collectively - have rated as the top three teams in the league. It's been a much more challenging set of games than what the Cowboys faced as none of their previous three opponents rank inside my top 19. It's rare to find Seattle coming in off B2B losses, but they're 2-0 SU/ATS in that situation the L3 seasons. Furthermore, underdogs of three points or more, that are off a loss by 35+ points, have cashed in at an extraordinary 72.5% rate (37-14-2 ATS). Dallas is only 3-4 SU and ATS at home this season and 21-33-2 ATS laying points to fellow NFC foes. 8* Seattle

8* Miami (1:00 ET): The Chiefs recorded a huge win last Saturday, beating the Chargers 30-13 at home. That all but assures they're going to win the AFC West for a second consecutive year (barring them losing both of their remaining games and LA winning theirs). So, in essence, we've got a bit of a "flat spot" on our hands this week. While the narrative here will center around "KC being back on track," all they've done is win B2B home games against the division. It will be easy for them to overlook the Dolphins this week and I feel that taking the points is the way to go here. The Chiefs are only outscoring opponents by roughly four points per game this season and have not been favored by this many point at any other point this season.

In fact, the Chiefs are 0-2 ATS the L3 seasons as DD favorites. This team simply isn't built to blow teams out, even though they have won by double digits each of the last two weeks. But again, keep in mind those were familiar foes they were playing for the second time this season. Miami is a team they have not seen since 2014 and that was a different Dolphins' regime. There are also a number of players on the Chiefs' roster battling an illness this week. The list includes LB Justin Houston, TE Travis Kelce and LT Eric Fisher. All have missed practice time this week and even if any/all play Sunday, they likely won't be 100 percent. 

Miami still does have an outside shot at the playoffs, so don't expect them to go down easily here. They must win both remaining games and hope for some help. It's a long shot, but again, expect effort this week after a poor showing in Buffalo. Remember we're less than two weeks removed from them upsetting the Patriots! There are two other factors that have me believing the Dolphins keep this game close. One is that the weather forecast calls for high winds, meaning a low-scoring game is a very real possibility. Two, the Chiefs are 0-6-1 ATS their last seven games hosting a sub-.500 foe. They were favored by at least six points (as they are here) in all seven contests. My best guess for this one is that KC wins a very close game. 8* Miami 

10* NY Jets (1:00 ET): A Chargers resurgence is something that I'd been calling for the better part of the last two seasons. But I have to admit; once they started 0-4 this year, I'd pretty much given up all hope. The inability to stay healthy, play turnover free football or win close games kept dooming them and thus when they were 3-6 SU, most (myself included) considered them a mere afterthought. But then they won four straight games - three of them by 17 pts or more - to get back into the playoff hunt. It was "put up or shut up" time last Saturday in Kansas City as LA had a chance to take over first place in the AFC West. One of the (several) reasons I laid off there was the Chiefs were simply a stronger opponent than what the Chargers had faced recently. Sure enough, the Bolts lost 30-13 and their playoff hopes are now on "life support."

The Chargers are basically looking at just the Wild Card at this point. They'll obviously need some help to get it as Baltimore has an easy schedule, and thus is likely to claim one of the two WC's. Tennessee is a game up, but has two difficult home games to play. The Chargers have the tiebreak (head to head) over a Bills team they crushed in the "ill-fated" Nathan Peterman start. Best case; LA wins out and somehow ends up in a 9-7 tie w/ Buffalo for the final spot. But you have to wonder about the psyche of the team after last week's humbling at the hands of the Chiefs (8th straight loss to KC). This is also an early start time for the West Coast team and they won't have TE Hunter Henry (done for year), one of QB Philip Rivers' favorite targets. RB Austin Ekeler, injured last week, is dealing w/ a broken hand. On the defensive side of the ball, they will be w/o MLB Denzel Perryman and DT Corey Liuget. Special teams are also still a major concern here as the kicking game has made a league-low 70.4% of its FG attempts this season. 

The Jets have already exceeded their projected win total for the season and have been competitive here at home. Their record at MetLife Stadium is 4-3 SU and that includes a win over the same Chiefs team that has beaten LA twice. None of the three home losses have been by more than eight points. Of course, Bryce Petty is the QB of Gang Green now, but that didn't stop them from cashing for me last week (at New Orleans!). To me, if the Chargers are to win this game, it will be close (something they are due to do). The Jets are only being outscored by 4 PPG for the year. 10* NY Jets

8* Toledo (7:00 ET): This would be a rare bowl rematch from the previous year as Toledo, now the favorite, takes on Appalachian State. The two schools met in LY's Camellia Bowl w/ App State prevailing 31-28 in what was a very even game. Four times the Mountaineers scored a TD, only to be answered by Toledo doing the same. It wasn't until a FG w/ just over five minutes remaining that they took the lead for good. This year saw Toledo finally capture that elusive MAC Championship (1st since '04) while App State had to settle for sharing first place in the Sun Belt (where there is no Champ Game). As I mentioned earlier, the Rockets are the favorite this year as the teams line up in the Dollar General Bowl in Mobile, AL.

Being the underdog has not suited Appalachian State well recently. They are 0-6 straight up in such games the L3 seasons. Twice they were getting points this season and both times they were a trend call to pull the upset. Both times, they (obviously) failed. One was the season opener against Georgia, the other at home vs. Wake Forest. Toledo might not be as good as either of those two side (obviously not as strong as Georgia), but they are an 11-win outfit that is superior to the vast majority of App State opponents this year. Interestingly, the Mountaineers avoided both of the other top teams in the SBC, those being Troy and Arkansas State. As I've mentioned in past analysis this bowl season, the SBC was really weak this year beyond the top three. Of note is that ASU scored only 10 and 19 pts the two games in which they were dogs. 

Toledo's offense is very strong, led by QB Logan Woodside, who was the only signal caller in the nation besides Heisman winner Baker Mayfield to throw for 25+ TD passes w/ fewer than eight interceptions (28-5 ratio). He finished the reg season w/ 3,758 yds passing as the Rockets averaged 11th nationally in scoring (39.2 PPG) and 8th in total (509.9 YPG) offense. They will be the best unit on the field Saturday night. While App State lost to the likes of UMass and LA Monroe (two bad teams), Toledo's only two losses were to Ohio U and Miami, both on the road. Turnovers were the story in both losses. Assuming the Rockets can protect the ball here (had zero TO's LY vs. App State), then they should win going away. 8* Toledo

10* South Florida (12:00 ET): I realize that there's a legit question of motivation on the side of USF, who can't be too thrilled about a return trip to the Birmingham Bowl given that they came into this season w/ thoughts of crashing the "New Year's Six" party. They only lost twice, one of those coming in what was quite possibly the "Game of the Year" in College Football, to unbeaten UCF. (Ironically, that 49-42 result enabled UCF to usurp USF's dreams and go on to play in the Peach Bowl vs. Auburn). Regardless though, on paper, the Bulls should have little difficulty w/ a pedestrian 6-6 Texas Tech squad that may just "be happy to be here" after upsetting Texas in the regular season finale. Lay the short number.

South Florida HC Charlie Strong knows this opponent well from his own time in Texas. His Longhorns teams went 2-1 SU/ATS vs. the Red Raiders, twice scoring 45 pts against them. The offense he brings in this time is far superior than any edition he had in Austin. Led by sensational QB Quinton Flowers, the Bulls averaged 38.3 points per game (15th nationally) and north of 500 YPG. Usually, Texas Tech has the offensive edge over its opponents, but that is NOT the case here. In fact, over their last three games, the Red Raiders averaged just 22.7 points per game and 4.9 yards per play. Defensively, the Bulls have the edge as well. They allow just 22.5 PPG, as opposed to 31.7 for Texas Tech. Granted, you have to factor in that Texas Tech played the more challenging schedule, but still, the stats are slanted far enough in USF's direction that I'm willing to overlook that. 

This is just the third bowl in five seasons for TT under Kliff Kingsbury. Many in Lubbock felt Kingsbury was on the proverbial "hot seat" coming into 2017 as he was off a 5-7 SU season and projected to finish as low as 8th in the 10-team Big XII. As mentioned above, they needed to win their reg season finale (as 7.5-pt dogs at Texas) just to become bowl eligible. Getting back to the question of motivation for USF, I think the opportunity to knock off a Power 5 school is enough for them to "get up" for this game. They're the better team and laying a small number, I expect them to roll. Over the L3 seasons, in games where the line is three points or less, USF is 4-1 SU/ATS while TT is 1-5 both ways. 10* South Florida

8* UAB (12:30 ET): Off to the Bahamas we go Friday afternoon where we're likely to find a highly motivated underdog, one that NO ONE could have possibly predicted would be in a bowl game this year. UAB HC Bill Clark just might be the Coach of the Year in College Football as he led a team that didn't even play a single game last season (program was temporarily dropped after 2014) and guided them to a stunning 8-4 SU regular season. Meanwhile, I can't say that Ohio U will be very motivated for this trip. Not only did the Bobcats blow what was a golden opportunity to win the MAC East at the regular season, but they're currently dealing with numerous injuries. I have a ton of respect for the job Frank Solich has done in Athens, but he's only 2-8 straight up in bowl games here. Take the points.

Adding to UAB's motivation here is that they have NEVER won a bowl game in school history. The last and only time they were in one was '04 (Roddy White era!) and they lost the Hawaii Bowl 59-40 to ... Hawaii. Though again "off the mainland," this is a far better matchup for them. The Blazers' one weakness is stopping the run, so lucky for them that OU is likely to be w/o its top two leading rushers for this game, not to mention their leading receiver as well! As you might have guessed, UAB sprung numerous upsets during the reg season as they were 5-2 ATS as dogs, winning four of those games outright. Five of their games were decided by five points or less. All things considered, they did have some head-scratching losses, including one to Ball State (a MAC team). But they closed by winning four of five, the lone loss coming at Florida.

When Ohio beat Toledo 38-10 on November 8th (as 3-pt home underdogs), it appeared as if they were in the drivers' seat to win the MAC East. Unfortunately, they then tanked, losing games at Akron and Buffalo, missing the spread by over 30 pts in those two games. The combination of injuries and disappointment likely take their toll here. Also, don't sleep on the UAB defense, which allows just 24.3 PPG (47th in the country) and only 188 passing yards per game. The MAC traditionally struggles in bowl games and I wouldn't want to lay this many points given the likely disparity in motivation. 8* UAB

8* Louisiana Tech (8:00 ET): It was an "up and down" first day of Bowl games for C-USA's perspective w/ two wins and two losses on Saturday. League champ FAU's result (check Tuesday) is not in yet as of press time. Overall, C-USA sent NINE teams bowling this year, which has to come as a shock to those who don't really pay attention to the league during the regular season. Here, we have a La Tech team that won the West Division LY, but dipped down to 4-4 SU in league play and 6-6 SU overall this season. They had to win their final two regular season games, over UTEP and UTSA (two of C-USA's five NON-bowl teams), just to get here. But the Bulldogs' senior class is 3-0 SU in bowl games (favored every time), so it's easy to like them plus the points here. 

SMU became bowl eligible back in late October, but then sputtered down the stretch, losing three of their final four reg season games. The only win was the finale, against lowly Tulane, while they lost to AAC heavyweights UCF, Navy and Memphis. The big story here is that HC Chad Morris has bolted for the Arkansas job and will be replaced by Sonny Dykes. Running backs coach Jeff Traylor was to serve as the interim here, but decided to follow Morris to Fayatteville. So Dykes is jumping straight into the fire here in the Frisco Bowl. SMU does have an edge in location w/ this game taking place in Frisco and Dykes was previously the HC at La Tech (before leaving for Cal). But those two factors aside, this is a tough spot for Dykes, who has to coach a team he hasn't had much time to learn about (will have been on the job for only NINE days by gameday!).

While La Tech is 3-0 SU in bowls under HC Skip Holtz (Dykes' replacement!), SMU has not been to a bowl since 2012 (when they stunned Fresno St in the Hawaii Bowl, 43-10, as 13-pt underdogs). SMU has the edge offensively in this matchup, but La Tech is clearly better defensively. SMU did win all seven games that they were favored in during the regular season, but was only 4-3 ATS. I just think that the whole coaching situation is going to be a major detriment for the Mustangs. As for La Tech, this game is not a far trip for them either and I think they'll be the more motivated side as they're ecstatic to just be in a bowl. 8* Louisiana Tech

10* Akron (7:00 ET): This spread is the largest for any bowl in the past two decades and is simply begging for a call to take the points. That's what I'll do here, even though Akron is pretty clearly "up against it," playing a "true" road game in Boca Raton. The Zips were the surprise winners of the MAC East this year and finished 7-6 SU despite being outscored and outgained rather severely against FBS competition. But a late season upset over Ohio enabled them to win their division and then they "backdoored" Toledo in the MAC Championship Game, losing by only 17 as 20.5-pt pups. I see, at worst, a similar situation presenting itself here as the underdog should be highly motivated by the "disrespect card." 

FAU made my short list for most improved teams in the country this year as Lane Kiffin walked into a great situation as he was inheriting the most experienced team in the entire country! Also, the Owls were bound to improve upon a 1-4 SU record in close games. However, close games were not the reason this team made an unforseeable quantum leap in 2017 as they simply rolled the rest of Conference USA, going 9-0 (including Title Game) while outscoring opponents by 200 points. However, I worry about overconfidence from the Owls coming into this game as they really aren't accustomed to being this level of favorite. It wasn't until the final three games of the regular season that they were even asked to lay double digits! This is their second largest spread of the season, topped only by a matchup w/ Charlotte, who is one of the worst teams in the country.

Kato Nelson, who took over late in the season for Thomas Woodson, will remain Akron's starting QB for this bowl game. Nelson played well enough down the stretch to justify the decision. But it's an opportunistic Akron defense that has me more intrigued as this group ranked 2nd in interceptions and #16 in turnover margin. They also are stingy in the red zone, ranking 25th in points allowed per trip. The Zips were 6-3 ATS as underdogs in the regular season and even w/ the homefield edge, I feel FAU should be closer to a two TD favorite rather than three. 10* Akron

8* Atlanta (8:30 ET): It seems as if no one wants any part of the Buccaneers this week on Monday Night Football, and I can't really blame them. TB was a prime candidate to regress in 2017 and regress they have falling from 9 to (right now) 4 wins. Last year's squad led the league in net upsets (+6) and it's important to recall was only favored in THREE games. This year, they've been favored six times and fared okay (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS), but the underdog role has been quite unkind as they're 0-6 SU and 0-5-1 ATS. This line does seem inflated, but it's a virtual "must win" for the Dirty Birds, who already got a couple gifts yday w/ Seattle and Dallas both losing. The first meeting between these NFC South rivals took place just three weeks ago and saw the Falcons win by two touchdowns. Not enough has changed since then to make me think this one will go any differently. Lay the points. 

Furthermore, Atlanta has had extra time to prepare here as they last played two Thursdays ago when they picked up a huge win, beating New Orleans 20-17 as 2.5-pt home favorites (that line was quite volitaile throught the week). I, fortunately, was on the Falcons that game as they moved to 8-5 SU and maintained control of their playoff destiny. New Orleans and Carolina both won yday, but if Atlanta wins out, then they will repeat as NFC South Champs as they play those two teams the final two weeks. After some midseason struggles, Matt Ryan and company have won four of their last five and the defense has allowed 20 pts or less four times.

Tampa has lost three straight and last week fell "at the gun" (last second FG) at home to Detroit. That result all but ended their season and it's fair to question how motivated the home dog will be here. Aside from a 30-20 win over Miami on 11.19, the Bucs have failed top 21 pts in any of the last seven games. They are averaging only 17.8 PPG at home this year. Even worse, on the defensive end, stud DT Gerald McCoy is out w/ a biceps injury. He led the team in sacks w/ five and the rest of the defense has just 12 on the year. (They rank last overall in sacks). TB's defense had no answers for Julio Jones in that first meeting, allowing him 12 catches for 253 yards. Atlanta's defense just held NO to 306 total yds, including only 50 on the ground. 8* Atlanta

10* Oakland (8:30 ET): When this game was initially announced as a nationally televised affair, clearly, the schedule-makers had in mind that more would be at stake. But both Dallas and Oakland have essentially been confined to "also-ran" status at this juncture of the season. The Cowboys have been victimized by the Ezekiel Elliott suspension, not to mention some key injuries on both sides of the ball. The Raiders have fallen prey to some good old regression, which I warned their faithful was likely to take hold after a 2016 that saw them go 12-4 SU despite only outscoring opponents by 31 pts. Coming into Sunday night, "America's Team" has posted B2B victories, but within their own division against two inferior foes. I don't agree w/ how this line has moved (early in the week) - at all - and will be taking the points w/ the Silver and Black.

After a well-publicized back & forth, Elliott was officially suspended (six games) before Week 10. That came right at the same time the Cowboys were w/o top offensive lineman Tyron Smith and LB Sean Lee. All those absences took their toll and the team lost its next three, never scoring more than 9 points. But after Thanksgiving, they've bounced back w/ wins over the Redskins & Giants, both times scoring 30 or more. Let's be sure to point out that Dallas had a +6 turnover margin in those two games as well. Also, while you may want to make a case that the "offense is back," I'd be very leery of this defense going against Derek Carr and company. During the three-game losing streak, Dallas allowed nearly 31 PPG. Neither Washington nor the Giants' offense is much to write home about.

Oakland was essentially dominated for the first three quarters LW at Kansas City, before scoring 15 late points to make the game seem closer than it really was. They were outgained 408-268. Coming off their own consecutive victories (both here at home), it was a very disappointing showing against a divisional foe. I will point out though that the Raiders have won their last three home games (remember, they played New England in Mexico City). I'm simply not convinced that the Cowboys should be favored in this spot. Something I've mentioned before, and will reiterate again is the "Circadian advantage" (google it!) that West Coast teams seem to enjoy in these primetime affairs. I feel Oakland still has a more realistic (albeit still unlikely) path to the postseason (by winning the AFC West). This is a "must-win" and they'll show up. 10* Oakland

8* Green Bay (1:00 ET): The wait is apparently over. Aaron Rodgers will suit up for the Pack this week, ending an eight-week absence. In preparation of this announcement, I jumped on GB early this week (getting them at a nice price), but note this play is still absolutely valid. The Packers may have only gone 3-5 w/o Rodgers in the lineup, but are off B2B wins as well, both coming in overtime. They're now 7-6 SU and one-game back of the final Wild Card in the NFC. With Rodgers back, the likelihood of "running the table" (winning out) obviously increases and if the team does that, then they may improbably make the playoffs. One of the teams they are chasing is who they are playing at this week. Take the points. 

Carolina is 9-4 SU (two games ahead of GB) and off a huge win (here at home) over Minnesota. They blew a 24-13 lead LW, but were able to score the GW TD under two minutes ago. Overall, the Panthers have won five of six (only loss at New Orleans). They've played good defense all season long (allow just 302.1 YPG). But I think it's still important to note that they are only outscoring opponents by an average of less than a field goal per game. The return of Rodgers had to be a bit of a "shock to the system" for Carolina, who I don't think was anticipating facing him (was initially thought to be returning last week). 

Meanwhile, there can be no denying just how much better GB is w/ Rodgers under center. Backup Brett Hundley performed admirably in his absence, but the truth is the Pack were pretty lucky to win the L2 weeks. However, the offense did still score an average of 27 PPG the L3 wks. Rodgers impact will be felt though, primarily by Jordy Nelson, who (not surprisingly) had much better numbers when #12 was in the lineup and not Hundley. Rodgers had a 13-3 TD-INT ratio before going down w/ the collarbone injury. It's as simple here as me putting my faith in Rodgers being a difference maker. 8* Green Bay

8* NY Jets (1:00 ET): A total "hold your nose" & take the points situation. Yes, the Jets are w/o Josh McCown and gained only 100 total yds in a shutout loss to the Broncos last week. They're forced to go w/ Bryce Petty as their starting QB here. My raw power ratings (which respect the Saints greatly!) have this line only at -10.5. Petty is a downgrade from McCown for sure, but I'm not sure one that necessitates almost a full touchdown move on the pointspread. New Orleans finds itself smack dab in the middle of an "Atlanta sandwich" as they lost to the Falcons last week and will rematch w/ them (here at the Superdome) next week. The Jets have been better than all of us thought they'd be this year as they're only being outscored by 3.5 PPG. Take the points.

For years, the Saints were an "all-offense, no defense" team being carried by QB Drew Brees. This year's resurgence has come about primarily due to a vastly improved run game and defense. The "dynamic duo" of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara may find some tough sledding here, however, as the Jets' D ranks #13 against the run. Also, Kamara is coming off a game where he had to leave w/ a concussion. Because they've been off for 10 days (played Thursday last week), Kamara has gotten a full week of practice in, but that last game saw the Saints suffer tremendous attrition as 10 different players left the field due to injury. This team has performed tremendously as a favorite this season, going 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS, but this will be the first time they've been asked to lay double digits in the L3 seasons. They're just 5-12 ATS L17 times laying 10 or more pts. 

The Jets haven't been great on the road, but even w/ Petty starting for the 1st time since last year, there's value to be had here. Prior to being shutout last week, the Jets had outgained each of their previous four opponents. Going back to all the injuries the Saints suffered last week, the majority of them were on the defensive side of the ball. They could be w/o as many as three starters here - DE Hendrickson, LB Klein and DB Vaccaro - one at each level. They also could be w/o BOTH starting guards alongside the offensive line. At the very worst, the "backdoor" should be open late in the game and I can see a late Jets score getting the cover. 8* NY Jets

8* Detroit (4:30 ET): This line has come down during the week, presumably due to the Bears "huge" upset win over the Bengals last week. It was 33-7 in favor of the Monsters of the Midway, who were six-point dogs in what ended up being - easily - their largest margin of victory of the season. Chicago has faceplanted (i.e. lost outright) both of the two times they've been favored in 2017, but are a respectable 6-4 ATS as a dog (w/ four outright wins). However, I do not see them winning B2B games and with the number being so short, I'm going w/ the Lions in a game they almost "have to have." 

The Lions escaped Tampa Bay last week w/ a 27-24 win (won on a last second FG) and enter this game at 7-6 SU, one game behind of the final Wild Card spot. Having already suffered losses to both Carolina and Atlanta, the margin for error is almost non-existant now for the team from the Motor City. Fortunately, they have had Chicago's number in recent seasons. Going back to the 2013 season, they've taken eight of the nine head to head matchups in this NFC North rivalry. That includes a 27-24 win back in Wk 11 where they spotted the Bears a 10-pt lead on the road. Interestingly, the Lions were three-point road favorites that game. The market certainly seems to have overadjusted here considering the switch in homefield advantage. 

Chicago is not a strong offensive team as they average only 16.0 PPG on the road. Last week's effort is not indicative of the entire package here as rookie QB Mitchell Trubisky may very well have the worst group of receivers in the league to throw to. Note that they'd topped 17 pts only once in their previous six contests. Last week was their best performance of the season, easily, so I wouldn't look for them to come close to duplicating it. As for Detroit, they are averaging a healthy 26.8 PPG at home and QB Stafford showed little to no effect from his injured hand LW when he threw for nearly 400 yards. Four receivers had at least 64 yards. The Bears have lost the last six times they've been in a revenge situation, going just 1-4-1 ATS. 8* Detroit

8* Western Kentucky (2:30 ET): This was quite the disappointing season down in Bowling Green, KY as the Hilltoppers finished only 6-6 SU, a clear dropoff from LY's team, which finished 11-3 SU and won the C-USA Title. They came into 2017 as favorites to repeat in the East Division, but like everyone else, they fell victim to the resurgence of FAU under Lane Kiffin. WKU lost to FAU, 42-28 (as six-point home underdogs), back on 10.28. That loss begat a second half decline which saw the Hilltoppers lose four of their final five games. But a disappointing season can still be salvaged here w/ a favorable matchup against what may very well be the WORST of all the bowl teams, Georgia State, who was not only outscored over the course of the year (1 of only 7 bowl teams that can say that), but was outscored by almost a full touchdown per game. That's easily the worst scoring differential among all 74 bowl teams. Lay the points here in the Cure Bowl.

This is hardly bowl season's most prestigious game, but Georgia State is probably "happy to be here." That's because they'd produced only ONE season w/ more than three victories going back to 2011. Ironically, that one season (2015) saw them end up here, in the Cure Bowl (played in Orlando), where they lost 27-16 to San Jose State. Most signs were pointing up though in Shawn Elliott's first year here as they played better than LY's 3-9 SU record showed (actually outgained SBC foes!), but the irony is that this Panthers' team is probably NOT as good as its 6-5 SU record. After becoming bowl eligible w/ a 33-30 win at Texas State on 11.11, they promptly were blown out in their final two reg seasons contests, 31-10 by Appalachian State and 24-10 by Idaho (both at home). The GSU offense averages less than 20 PPG (19.7 to be exact) and did not beat a single bowl team in the regular season. They played three (bowl teams) and were outscored 121-20 in those games. The truth about the Sun Belt is that the competition is VERY weak below the top three teams. 

Western Kentucky's inferior record (compared to LY) can be pinned on a couple things. One, they lost HC Jeff Brohm, who cashed in at Purdue. Two, they lost TWO 1300+ yard receivers. But QB Mike Whitie is still more than capable of producing a big day in the passing game as he led all C-USA players w/ an average of 303.3 YPG. Also, despite losing those two quality receivers from last season, the Hilltoppers are arguably deeper at the position this year w/ 11 different wideouts having 24+ catches. This is WKU's fourth consecutive year playing in a bowl and they've won each of the last three. They know what they're doing this time of year. Compare that to a poor Georgia State team that has NEVER won a bowl. WKU is also 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS coming off a bye while Georgia State is 1-7 SU/3-5 ATS in that role. 8* Western Kentucky

10* North Texas (1:00 ET): The Mean Green of North Texas have been pulling upsets all season long, so what's one more? They'll play Troy, a team that defied regression in 2017, in this year's edition of the New Orleans Bowl (played at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome). This is the third year in a row this bowl game matches up teams from C-USA and the Sun Belt w/ the former winning each of the L2 years. That bodes well here for UNT, who pulled three outright upsets during the regular season en route to a Championship Game appearance (lost 41-17 to FAU). I'm impressed by the fact the Mean Green were able to go 9-4 SU/8-5 ATS despite a -8 turnover differential. Defensively, they have their issues, but they also average more points per game than Troy. Take the points in this year's 1st bowl game. 

I said earlier that Troy "defied regression." What I mean by that is LY's team finished 10-3 SU (beat Ohio in the Dollar General Bowl) and became the 1st Sun Belt team to EVER be ranked when they were 8-1 SU w/ the only loss coming to eventual National Champ Clemson. Only two years removed from a 4-win season, you would have thought the Trojans would fail to match LY's season-win total, but instead they've matched it and now have a chance to exceed it! By far, the highlight of the regular season was a stunning 24-21 upset of LSU (in Death Valley!) as 20.5-pt dogs. They clinched a share of the SBC reg season crown (no Conf Title Game) by beating Arkansas State in the finale, 32-25, in Jonesboro. That game was won in the final 17 seconds w/ a TD and subsequent 2-pt conversion. However, be aware that the Trojans were VERY lucky to win that day as they were outgained 606-293! If not for TWO non-offensive scores, they would not even have been in position to "steal" the game late.

Though 9-1 SU as a favorite, Troy has covered only four of those games. Similarly, North Texas won all six times it was favored in the reg season. But, as mentioned before, they were a pretty successful underdog as well. Troy allows only 17.5 PPG, but as we saw in the last game, they can give up plenty of yardage. The North Texas offense comes in averaging 467 yards and 35.9 points per contests. So, getting points, they are an attractive choice. Few even expected HC Seth Littrell to have his team in this position, but after inheriting a 1-11 team from two seasons ago, he's improved the win total in Denton B2B years. Remember the Mean Green actually played in a Bowl last season, despite being 5-7 SU (weren't enough eligible teams!). They covered in the Heart of Dallas Bowl vs. Army, losing only 38-31 as 11-pt pups. Now they look for their 1st bowl win since '13. Led by QB Mason Fine, this is the best offense that UNT has EVER fielded as seven different receivers recorded at least 24 catches. Fine set school records for passing yardage and touchdowns. The dog will score enough to cover here. 10* North Texas

8* Baltimore (8:30 ET): Given that the Steelers were going to be on a short week, I thought this line opened way too high, so the fact that it's come down a couple point during the week is not surprising on this end. Even post-move, there's still a ton of value on the Ravens, who have the better point differential of the two teams. Plus, Pittsburgh played a very physical game Monday night at Cincinnati, losing LB Ryan Shazier (best wishes to him!) in the process. Now they've got to deal w/ another physical AFC North rival, one that is much better than the Bengals team they barely beat six days ago (last second field goal). Baltimore's defense has allowed the second fewest number of points in the AFC, trailing only Jacksonville. Take the points. 

This is also a legit revenge spot for the Ravens, who were humbled up in Pittsburgh back in Week 4. That 26-9 defeat is simply not indicative of where these teams are at currently, however, as the first meeting was a horrific situation from Baltimore's perspective. They were just one week removed from an awful showing in London where they were drubbed by Jacksonville 44-7. Having no bye week after a London game is rare and it definitely affected the Ravens adversely. Since that loss, Baltimore has gone 5-3 SU w/ two of the losses coming by only a field goal. Last week's 44-20 blowout of Detroit was their third consecutive victory and while that game didn't get "out of hand" until late, it was still an impressive win nevertheless. With three forced turnovers against the Lions, Baltimore is now +14 in TO margin this year and that's #1 in the entire league. 

If Week 4 could be termed a "horrific situation" for Baltimore, the proverbial "shoe" is now "on the other foot" here. Pittsburgh not only is w/o its top linebacker (Shazier), but emerging WR JuJu Smith-Schuster is also suspended for his (dirty hit) on Bengals LB Vontaze Burfict (oh the irony there!) Monday night. Yes, the Ravens have lost their top CB (Jimmy Smith) for the rest of the regular season. But what I'm more focused on here is the run defense, which is unlikely to allow anything close to the neighborhood of the 144 yds gained by Le'Veon Bell in that 1st meeting. Over the L5 weeks, the Ravens have allowed an average of just 67 rushing yards per game. 8* Baltimore

8* Seattle (4:25 ET): It appears as if rumors of the Seahawks' demise were greatly exaggerated. They shot back into the thick of the NFC Playoff race last week w/ a very impressive Sunday night victory over the Eagles, 24-10, a game in which they were in the rare role of home dog. I believe that there's a case to be made that Russell Wilson, and not Carson Wentz, is the true league MVP this year. With the once-vaunted Legion of Boom (secondary) ailing, Wilson is carrying the offense and the team. This week presents a new challenge, in the form of a cross-country visit to face ascedent Jacksonville, but it's one that I feel the Seahawks will be up for. I again point to this team's track record as an underdog, which is now 6-5 ATS L11 w/ five outright victories. 

In many ways, the Jaguars are building their team in the same fashion Seattle did. The Jags' strength is clearly the defensive side of the ball as they've given up the fewest number of points in all of football. In fact, they've allowed 25 fewer points on the season than every other team! Turnovers have played a big role in this year's improvement as well as they are #2 in the league in TO margin at +12. They also have a front seven that should - on paper - dominate the suspect Seattle offensive line. But I come back to the most significant edge the Seahawks have in this matchup - and it the QB position w/ Wilson over Blake Bortles. Seattle's defense remains very good, mind you. Don't expect Jacksonville to score a ton of points Sunday.

The last three weeks, Jacksonville has faced Cleveland, Arizona and Indianapolis. Those are three of the worst teams in the league. The offense gained fewer than 300 total yds against both the Browns and Cardinals. Against the former, they were very fortunate to cover and they lost to the latter. Last week, they did beat up on a direction-less Colts team. But the Jags have injuries on the defensive side of the ball now too, namely DB Jalen Ramsey and LB Telvin Smith. Those would be huge absences, if one or neither played. RB Leonard Fournette has also been in and out of the lineup recently w/ ankle issues. Again, Seattle just beat the supposed "best team in the league" last week and did so handily, by two touchdowns. The last time Jacksonville beat a team that currently has a winning record was a Week 5 win over Pittsburgh where the defense scored two touchdowns. 8* Seattle

10* Houston (1:00 ET): As down as I was on the Texans coming into the year, and especially in the wake of the DeShaun Watson injury, you may find it a bit "odd" that I'd be so strongly behind them here. But so much of this play is about the opponent and my desire to play against them. The 49ers are off a win, just their 2nd of the year, 15-14 over the Bears last week. The notion of that team winning B2B games, on the road no less and in an early start time, seems far fetched. Now give credit to San Fran for last week as they absolutely deserved to win the game (outgained Chicago 388-147 w/ 23-8 first down edge), but they last won B2B games back in 2014. Since that time, any time they have been off a win, the next game has resulted in a double-digit loss (w/ one exception).

Since Watson was lost for the year, Houston is just 1-4 SU/2-3 ATS. They return home this week following B2B road loss to Baltimore and Tennessee, two potential playoff teams. This week's opponent will be the Texans' weakest since a win over Cleveland. While 1-5 SU on the road, Houston is 3-3 SU at home and outscoring teams by 5.5 points per game. They actually outgained Tennessee last week, 384-344, and it was a misleading final (24-13) due to the Titans scoring a very late TD. Much maligned QB Tom Savage even threw for 365 yards, completing 31 of 49 passes. The Texans' point differential being only -13 indicates to me they've played better than their record. As a favorite, the Texans are 14-3 SU/11-5-1 ATS the L3 seasons including a perfect 4 for 4 straight up when laying three or less at home. 

As for the 49ers, they are 2-10 SU and already thinking about next year. But there's some optimism here due to Jimmy Garoppolo now being the QB. They did win his starting debut, but only 15-14, and didn't score a single touchdown. In their last 22 road games. the Niners have just three wins. So again, B2B wins seems highly unlikely. In five of the last six games, they have not topped 15 points! In 8 of 12 games this year, they have not topped 15 points! Sure, the majority of those were w/o Garoppolo, but last week was. This is a team being outscored by more than a full TD per game on the year. My own power rankings have this spread above a touchdown. 10* Houston

10* Atlanta (8:25 ET): The events of last week (Saints win, Falcons lose) have conspired to make this line "jump the fence" w/ New Orleans now favored on the road. It will be interesting to see where it eventually settles (I'm writing this Weds morning), but regardless, I'm on the Falcons at what I feel is going to be a tremendous price. It doesn't happen all that often (more than you think though!), but the defending NFC Champs have been lethal as home dogs the past few seasons. They are 7-1 ATS in the role dating back to the 2013 season w/ five outright wins. That includes a SU win LY over Carolina (48-33). Bottom line is I don't see Atlanta dropping B2B home games, not w/ the stakes involved. 

From here on out, it's all division games for the Falcons and they'll probably need to win AT LEAST three of them to get back into the playoffs. In two weeks, they'll be at New Orleans, then close then season here at home vs. Carolina, a game which could very well determine the final playoff entrant in the NFC. Last week's loss to Minnesota snapped a three-game win streak which had seen the offense average almost 32 PPG. They were held to only three field goals by the vaunted Vikings defense while going a paltry 1 for 10 on third downs, largely due to facing a lot of unfavorable situations. New Orleans' defense transformation (much improved!) has been the subject of a lot of chatter this year, but their unit is not as strong as Minnesota's, regardless if CB Marcus Lattimore returns here or not.

At the same time, Atlanta's top CB (Desmond Trufant) is expected back from a concussion. Then again, defense was certainly not the issue LW vs. the Vikings as they allowed only two touchdowns. Stopping the Saints' vaunted run game (Mark Ingram & Alvin Kamara) will be a challenge, but here at home, the Falcons have been pretty stingy as they give up only 17.8 PPG. In fact, for as much talk as there's been about the Saints defense, Atlanta's is basically allowing the same number of points per game. Homefield advantage on a Thursday night matters, at least when we're dealing with two competitive teams and I see the Falcons winning one that they "need to have." 10* Atlanta

8* Seattle (8:25 ET): This line hit its high point mid-week and I immediately jumped on it as even in a "down year," Russell Wilson and the Seahawks are still a force to be reckoned with at home. This is a VERY rare instance of them getting points here and Wilson is 3-0 ATS all-time as a home dog, winning all three times straight up! Overall, Wilson is 14-7-1 ATS as a dog of any kind in his pro career. Furthermore, the Seahawks have been leading or within one possession of the lead in all but TWO of their previous 115 regular season contests! Think there's value now? I realize that the Eagles are "flying high" (pardon the pun) this year and everyone wants to bet them, but the market has now shifted too far with them. Take the points and I give Seattle a great shot at the outright upset.

Philadelphia absolutely annihilated the Chicago Bears last week, winning 31-3 w/ a massive 420-140 edge in total yards (24-8 in first downs). That win puts them in rarified company as one of only NINE teams (Since 1989!) to post four consecutive victories by 20 points or more. The previous eight teams, not surprisingly, did NOT fare well their next time out, posting an ATS record of just 2-6. This makes sense as oddsmakers will begin to attach a much higher price on a team after they consistently cover. The Eagles have now covered EIGHT consecutive games, but those four straight 20+ pt wins came against the 49ers, Broncos, Cowboys (no Elliott) and Bears. None of those are likely playoff teams and three of them are going to be picking very high in next year's Draft. Truth be told, the Eagles have played a VERY easy schedule to this point. The only team they beat that I'd consider a "lock" for the playoffs was Carolina and that was a five-point game. 

Seattle's four losses this year have been by a COMBINED 20 points. Shockingly, they have lost their last two home games. One was to Washington, but they actually held a commanding 437-244 edge in total yards in that game. Then there was the Monday nighter vs. Atlanta, their first game w/o Richard Sherman. (They also finished w/ the edge in total yds in that one!). Despite being 3-2 SU at home, the Seahawks are outgaining opponents by nearly 100 YPG here. Wilson is actually having just as good a year as Wentz (check the stats). Plus, under Pete Carroll, the team is 13-2 SU in home night games. You won't get a better price on the Seahawks at home as long as the current regime remains. Take the points. 8* Seattle

10* New Orleans (4:25 ET): The NFC South has emerged as the strongest division in the sport this year w/ three teams currently 7-4 SU or better (Tampa Bay the exception). The two teams meeting here are tied at 8-3 w/ the Saints holding the tiebreak due to an outright win in Carolina back in Week 3, 34-13, as five-point underdogs. That win totally transformed the Saints' season. Going into the game, they were 0-2, having been outscored 65-39 and giving up over 500 YPG. But something happened after upsetting the Panthers and it was on the defensive side of the ball. New Orleans would go on to win eight straight games, allowing 17 pts or less six times during that stretch. They did lose last week, 26-20 at Los Angeles, but IMO that's created some value here on them at home. Lay the points!

With New Orleans losing last week, Carolina is now the hottest team in the division as they're on a four-game win streak. However, three of those wins did come at the expense of Tampa Bay, Miami and the Jets, three teams that aren't going anywhere. I did have the Panthers LW vs. the Jets, but it was a fortunate cover due to a late FG and they were outgained 391-299. They also actually trailed early in the 4Q. While Carolina does have the slight edge defensively in this matchup, their offense averages about a full TD less per game compared to New Orleans. The Week 3 loss was one of five times this year that the Panthers' O failed to top 20 points.

Both teams come into this game a little banged up. New Orleans, on the defensive side of the ball, is really hurting - especially in the secondary. But CB Marcus Lattimore has not been ruled out for this game. However, perhaps the biggest absence for this matchup is now on the Carolina defense as DE Charles Johnson was suspended on Friday (4 games) for violating the league's substance abuse policy. The Panthers allow roughly 1.6 more rush yards per attempt w/ Johnson off the field, which is significant. As a reminder, they are getting ready to face Drew Brees in the Mercedes Benz Superdome. This year's Saints' offense can also run the ball a lot more effectively than past seasons, thanks to rookie Alvin Kamara. The Panthers offense is likely going to be w/o TE Greg Olsen and possibly RB Christian McCaffery. Though Carolina has been good as a dog this year, I think it's notable that New Orleans has won all seven games in which it has been a favorite, covering six times. This is a pretty short price on them at home. 10* New Orleans

8* Miami (1:00 ET): This is a battle of two teams that are sinking fast while being disasters at the betting window. Denver's 3-1 start is a distant memory as they had an early season bye and have since lost seven in a row, not covering a single time in the process. In fact, and this is downright shocking, they have been "in the money" (i.e. covering) for roughly only 6% of actual game time! Miami, whose fall from grace was fairly easy to predict, has taken a similar path. They were 4-2 SU at one point, but it was a fraudulent record to say the least, and they've now dropped five straight. Four of those losses have been by double digits. So something will have to give here and w/ QB Jay Cutler cleared, I believe it's the Dolphins in better position to take this relatively "meaningless" Week 13 matchup. 

Denver does not have a viable starting QB on its roster. They've tried three different options - Trevor Siemian, Brock Osweiler and Paxton Lynch - and none of them have had any real success. After cycling through, it's back to Siemian this week. Siemian will have to get used to a new offensive coordinator here (Bill Musgrave) as when he started earlier in the season Mike McCoy (since fired) was the one calling plays. Compounding matters is the fact that Siemian is one of several Broncos that has contracted the flu this week. Broncos backers will continue to lean on the fact this team has outgained its opponents this season, but the defense is not what it was the L2 years and the offense just can't score points. Only once in the last seven games has Denver topped 20 points and it was in a 51-23 loss to the Eagles. They average 14.4 PPG on the road.

Miami has an even worse offense, but at least their scoring average jumps to 22.4 PPG at home and they have Cutler w/ a better array of weapons. Cutler is facing a former team here, so he should be motivated. For what it's worth, the Dolphins are a respectable 4-5 SU when Cutler starts. Getting back to Denver's defensive decline, they now rank 28th in the league in points allowed. They are also now w/o their top defensive back, Aqib Talib, due to a suspension (for fighting Raiders' WR Michael Crabtree). I just can't see why this line has "flipped" during the week (Denver now favored) as the Broncos are 0-5 SU/ATS this season on the road. 8* Miami

8* Kansas City (1:00 ET): Not sure Chiefs' stock could be any lower than it is right now following B2B outright losses as big favorites, to the Giants and Bills. Well, it would sink lower if the team falls victim to the "New York trifecta" this week and loses outright to the Jets. Shockingly, money is in on the J-E-T-S even as short home dogs here. I understand why as KC appears to be falling apart at the seams. What was once an insurmountable lead in the AFC West (team started 5-0) has now been trimmed to just one game as they've lost five of six overall. But these are the Jets they're playing, a team I successfully targeted last week w/ the Panthers and walked away w/ the cover. With all their recent struggles, KC is laying a shorter number and I think there's value here. 

Facing a Bills team that had given up a total of 135 pts the previous three weeks, KC was shockingly out-first downed 13-1 in the 1H last week. This Chiefs' offense has been a disaster the L3 weeks, scoring just 36 points total and the cries for Patrick Mahomes to replace Alex Smituh have grown louder. It is stunning to look back at how Smith was being considered an MVP contender back when the team was 5-0 w/ wins over the Patriots and Eagles. I reiterate that this is an extreme "buy low" situation. The Chiefs are 8-2 ATS the L3 seasons as a road favorite of three points or less. Also, teams off an outright loss as DD favorites have come back to cover at roughly a 66% clip the following week since '05. Yes, I know the Chiefs were in this exact same spot LW (coming off the loss to the Giants), but can lightning really strike twice? 

I look for KC to run the ball effectively here against a Jets' run defense that is nowhere near what it once was. Last week, the Jets allowed 145 yds rushing to Carolina. I'd like to see the Chiefs recommit to the run game after attempting just 19 rushes in two of the last three games. The Jets' offense remains inept as long as Josh McCown is the QB. Note that while KC is +31 in 4th quarter point differential, the Jets are -73. Even w/ the offensive slump, the Cheifs are still 7th in the league in scoring. The Jets are 20th. By the way, the Jets have also lost five of their last six games including losses to Miami and Tampa Bay. Unlike KC, they have no 5-0 start to lean on. 8* Kansas City

10* Ohio State (8:00 ET): Wisconsin is unbeaten and in "pole position" (currently #4) to make the College Football Playoff, but Ohio State is the betting favorite here and for good reason. I've said this before - and it bears repeating - that the Buckeyes would likely be favored over every team in America (on a neutral field) besides Alabama. The Big 10 Championship Game is played at a neutral site (Indianapolis), so the line is no surprise to me whatsoever. Now the underdog is a perfect 6-0 ATS all-time in this game, but the situation here is a little unique in that it's the DOG attracting the far higher ticket count. Yet, despite that, we saw the line continue to rise early in the week. That's typically a tell-tale sign that "sharper" dollars are on the favorite and that's who I'm rolling w/ Sat night.

The big news out of Columbus this week is that QB JT Barrett will play Saturday, despite having had surgery (on his knee) Sunday. The knee was apparently injured by an unknown cameraman on the sidelines of the Michigan game. The Buckeyes still were able to beat their rival, mind you, despite being w/o Barrett for a significant portion of the game and spotting the Wolverines a 14-0 lead. I'll note that, by the numbers, Ohio State was - by far - the best team in the Big 10 in the regular season. They outgained conference foes by a whopping 254 YPG (nearly 2:1 margin), outscoring them by 26.4 PPG. All you need to know is that they were favored by double digits at Michigan while Wisconsin was just a touchdown favorite over the Wolverines - in Madison. 

It is absolutely okay to question Wisconsin's schedule. Their best win may or may not be Florida Atlantic. If not the Owls, then it would be Northwestern and that too was an early season affair. They caught Iowa the week after the Hawkeyes stunned the Buckeyes and that game was in Madison. So was Michigan, and they were down in the 2nd half before Wolverines' QB Brandon Peters was knocked out. Badgers fans will want to point to how "strong" their team is in trenches, but Ohio State is actually stronger across both the offensive and defensive lines. Undefeated teams in November/December the L4 seasons are just 42% ATS across College Football. Worse yet for Wisconsin is Urban Meyer's 30-17-1 ATS record vs. ranked opponents. This won't be the 59-0 massacre that the Buckeyes laid on the Badgers three years ago, but OSU will win comfortably. 10* Ohio State

8* Fresno State (7:45 ET): Of all the Conference Championship Games on Saturday, the matchup in the Mountain West just might be the oddest. Like most, it's a regular season rematch. But where this one differs is the intial matchup took place just last week and the teams had NOTHING to play for. Fresno State won 28-17 (as 6.5-pt dogs), but that was at home and it was pretty clear they were the ones taking the game far more seriously. Those expecting Boise to bounce back have to be delighted at the line for Saturday night's rematch on the "Smurf Turf," but there's also an inherent danger in simply expecting the Broncos to "turn it on" here. Note that FSU was just as dominant, if not moreso, in MWC play this year. I'll take the points. 

Really, the fact that Fresno State is even in this game is pretty remarkable. The Bulldogs were 1-11 SU in 2016 and while most metrics were "pointing up" for this year, you still must tip your cap to the job done here by HC Jeff Tedford (remember him?) in year one. Tedford did inherit 16 returning starters, 10 of them on the offensive side of the ball, which is his speciality. However, it has been the defense that has really impressed. This group ranks 12th in the nation, allowing just 17.3 points per game. That is stunning turnaround in one year's time as LY, the Bulldogs allowed 30.9 PPG. They are especially stout against the run, allowing just 117.3 YPG. Last week, they held Boise State to just 3.5 yards per carry and 107 yds total over land. 

Fresno State outscored its Mt West foes by an average of 14.5 PPG this year and outgained them by over 100 yards per game. Boise State's MOV in conference play was identical, but they outgained Mt West opponents "only" by 84.9 YPG. The fact that Fresno State allowed only 13.1 PPG in league play is impressive, no matter how you slice it, and leads me to believe it's going to be a low-scoring affair Sat night. Only once - in an upset loss to UNLV - have the Bulldogs surrendered more than 21 pts to a MWC opponent this year. That makes taking the points seem like a "slam dunk" to me. FSU has defied the oddsmakers all year long (9-2-1 ATS) in taking a division that most thought should simply be handed to San Diego State at the start of the year. And so much for homefield advantage; Boise State is just 4-13 ATS its L17 home games. Take the points. 8* Fresno State

8* Auburn (4:00 ET): Like many games on Conference Championship Weekend, it's a regular season rematch in the SEC w/ Auburn taking on Georgia. Much has changed since that first meeting down in Jordan-Hare, namely the Tigers are now the team in the driver's seat. It all started w/ them destroying UGA last month, 40-17 as a 2.5-pt home dog. Now they're a 2.5-point fave on a neutral field. That's justified though given how one-sided the regular season matchup was. Georgia isn't the only #1 team that Auburn has beaten over the last month as last week (also at home) they downed rival Alabama, 26-14 (+4.5) in the "Iron Bowl." Those anticipating any kind of letdown here should note that the Iron Bowl winner has gone a perfect 7-0 SU in SEC Title Games (5-2 ATS) since 2009. Auburn is too hot right now; lay it. 

Since losing to Auburn (only loss this year), UGA has rolled two opponents by a combined score of 80-20, but that was Kentucky and Georgia Tech. The 'Dawgs did beat one Top 10 team during the regular season, Notre Dame, but that was by just a point and doesn't look so impressive now w/ the Fighting Irish having since been blown out by Miami and Stanford. Remember that this team has a true frosh at QB as well. Even having played Auburn once, I'm not convinced the coaching staff can make the necessary adjustments along the offensive line given the discrepancy in personnel they face going against this Auburn defensive line. Georgia avoided two of the big boys in the SEC West (Alabama, LSU) and faced only three ranked teams all year. That matters. 

With their dominant defensive line likely to hold the Georgia offense in check, I'm not as worried about the potential absence of Auburn RB Kerryon Johnson (who went for 167 yds in the reg season matchup). Johnson is listed as probable anyway though and the Tigers have depth at the position. QB Jarrett Stidham continues to improve by the week and led the SEC w/ a 68.5 completion percentage. Three weeks ago, I said that this Auburn team could very well make a playoff run and right now there is no doubt that they are one of the four best teams in America. Looking at their two losses, one was close (early in the year) at Clemson (current #1) and the other saw them blow a 20-0 lead (at LSU). It won't be as lopsided as the first go-around, but the Tigers will win here and move on to the CFP. 8* Auburn

8* Oklahoma (12:30 ET): Like many of the Conference Championship Games this weekend, this is a regular season rematch where the underdog is playing w/ revenge. In the case of TCU-Oklahoma, I played the Sooners in Norman back on November 11th when they were about a TD favorite. Now they are laying the same, only at a neutral setting. This might cause reasonable minds to believe the value is on the Horned Frogs here, but considering the ease w/ which OU disposed of them three weeks ago, I say "not so fast." It was a 533-424 edge in total yardage for the Sooners in the 38-20 win and take note they didn't even score in the second half. This offense is simply going to be too good again for TCU to keep up. Lay the points. 

Oklahoma is #1 in the country, averaging 594 yards per game. They are #4 in scoring at 45.3 points per game. I took the Over in their game last week, which won easily (cashed early 3rd quarter!), yet even I was amazed by how efficient the Sooners were there. Understand that they possessed the ball for less than 25 minutes of actual game time, yet ran up 646 total yards and 59 points! Once again, with the game out of hand, they didn't even bother scoring in the fourth quarter. They scored on each of their first NINE drives of the game, eight of those being touchdowns, and it could have been 9 for 9 if they didn't run out of time at the end of the first half (had to settle for a field goal). As good as TCU HC Gary Patterson is at coaching defense, I wouldn't want to be stepping in front of this OU offense right now. 

TCU's only regular season loss besides OU was to Iowa State, who also beat the Sooners. Don't get me wrong; I have a tremendous amt of respect for the Horned Frogs. I even had them as my top CFB win total this season (at Over 7.5), which cashed easily. The Over on their game last week was my top CFB play of the weekend as they put up 45 points on a downtrodden Baylor team. But, again, Oklahoma is just on a different level right now. They put up 62 points and over 700 total yards against Oklahoma State last month and that was in Stillwater. When facing an opponent that has a winning record, the Sooners are 17-1 SU and 15-3 ATS the L3 seasons. They are also 7-1 SU/6-2 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. The TCU defense will also be w/o safety Nick Orr here - due to suspension - for the first half. By the time he returns, it could be too late for the Horned Frogs. Oklahoma ran for 200 yds in the first meeting, the most allowed in any game by the TCU defense all season. 8* Oklahoma

8* Green Bay (8:30 ET): These two proud franchises (combined for 10 Super Bowls) seem to be trending in very different directions right now. Pittsburgh, ten days removed from trouncing Tennessee 40-17, has won five in a row and should probably be considered the top team in the AFC right now. Green Bay's season went down the drain when Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone and they're just 5-5 SU following an ugly, shutout loss at the hands of Pittsburgh's rival (Baltimore) last week (23-0). As a result, we now have a pointspread that would have deemed unfathomable at the start of the season for this Sunday night matchup. I'll take the points, noting the Packers covered for me as dogs two weeks ago, winning outright in Chicago.

Since Rodgers went down, the Pack are just 1-4 SU w/ the lone victory coming against the Bears. They've failed to cover the spread in all four losses, but the marketplace has also been slow to react to just how signifcant the dropoff from Rodgers to Brett Hundley is. However, that being said, last week marked the first time under Hundley that GB lost a game by more than 13 points. It's not as if they've been losing to bad teams either as all four defeats came against teams w/ winning records, two of them being division leaders. While they were shutout, the problem last week vs. the Ravens was five turnovers. They actually outgained Baltimore 265-219. Obviously, it's tied to the QB situation, but this is an unprecedented pointspread for the Packers under HC Mike McCarthy. 

Before the win over the Titans last Thursday, Pittsburgh had not topped 30 points in any game this year! It also should be noted that they were the beneficiaries of a +4 TO margin vs. Tennessee and total yardage was almost identical (only +33). I did call for their highest scoring effort of the season vs. Tennessee (had the Over), but the bottom line is when you're averaging only 22.7 PPG, it's difficult to cover a spread as large as this one. Over the L3 games. the Packers defense has allowed just 64, 55 and 58 yards rushing. Anything similar would almost certainly keep them in this game until the very end. 8* Green Bay

8* New Orleans (4:25 ET): I believe the better team is getting points here and I say that as someone who has tremendous respect for the Rams, even labeling them as a top five team. But the Saints are on a different level right now w/ eight consecutive wins after an 0-2 SU start. Something you may have heard before is that New Orleans is just the third team in league history to have a win streak of six or more games following an 0-2 start to the season. The other two both won the Super Bowl. Now, I definitely remember playing against these Saints last week as they never were "in the money" as TD chalk against Washington. In fact, they needed a miracle rally in the final minutes of the 4Q just to force overtime, where they won 34-31. But they're not favored this week and that's key. 

The Rams had a win streak of their own (four games) snapped LW w/ a humbling 24-7 defeat at the hands of the Minnesota Vikings. After scoring a TD on the opening drive, the Rams never scored again. In fact, they were held to just 179 total yards the rest of the way. This is an offense that came in as the highest scoring in the entire league, mind you, something that has come as a shock considering how poor they (specifically QB Jared Goff) looked a year ago. But that was under Jeff Fisher. Sean McVay has engineered a remarkable turnaround here. But the Rams offense isn't the only unit that's pulled off a remarkable turnaround in 2017. The Saints defense, long the albatross holding QB Drew Brees and the offense back, has improved exponentially this season. They've pulled it off through a variety of off-season acquisitions, both via the draft and free agency. Incredibly, before the comeback last week vs. Washington, New Orleans had allowed 17 pts or fewer in six of its last seven games! 

Now there are some significant injuries for the Saints on the defensive side of the ball, the main one being DE Alex Okafor tearing his ACL and being done for the season. But let us not forget about Brees and that offense, which gained 535 total yards last week! They're averaging 474.7 YPG the L3 weeks. They also now have a running game to lean on w/ the "two-headed monster" of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. Note the Rams' defense is only 20th against the run and hasn't exactly faced the toughest slate of rushing attacks. While the Saints defense has lost Okafor, the Rams offense is w/o WR Robert Woods, a key loss. Key is that this will be the first time since Week 3 that New Orleans is an underdog. Good value as they are 14-6 ATS in that role the L3 seasons w/ nine outright victories. The Rams are just 1-4 SU/ATS the L5 times they have been listed as home chalk of three points or less, including 0-2 this season. 8* New Orleans

10* Kansas City (1:00 ET): In the upcoming offseason, I think we'll take a look back at Week 11 as the seminal moment of the Bills season. It's when HC Sean McDermott gambled and elected to bench QB Tyrod Taylor (despite overachieving) and instead start the unproven Nathan Peterman. The gamble was a disaster as the Bills lost 54-24 to the Chargers w/ Peterman throwing FIVE interceptions on just 14 attempts. By the end of the game, Taylor was back in, but you have to wonder about his relationship w/ the head coach and organization moving forward. Meanwhile, a lot of people are starting to wonder about the Chiefs. Remember when we all thought they were the best team in the league? Well, after that 5-0 start (including Wk 1 thumping of the Patriots), they've dropped four of five, including an embarrassing defeat LW (in OT) where they were DD favorites over the Giants. Most will view this as a big number, and it is, but it's justified as KC is in far better position to bounce back this week. 

With five of their final six opponents currently sporting a losing record, I think the Chiefs are in fine position to win the AFC West for a second straight year. Now, you might have thought the same going into last week's game in New York. Oddly, despite high winds, Andy Reid elected to pass the ball 60% of the time. The offense did gain 363 total yards, but was held w/o a touchdown (three field goals of 31 yds or less) and turned the ball over three times. The good news is that those problems are correctable. Normally, the Chiefs are winning the turnover battle. I expect them to here. I also expect them to increase their sack total from last week, which won't be hard b/c it was 0 against the G-Men. Buffalo could be w/o its starting left tackle, Cordy Glenn, again. This is also the right defense to be facing right now as the Bills have allowed 135 pts the L3 games, which is the fourth most over any three-game span in the league since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger!

Truth be told, when Buffalo was winning (started 5-2!), they were doing it w/ "smoke and mirrors." They have been outgained in every game since Week 1 and rank 27th in yards per game since Week 9 and 29th in yards allowed. They've been outgained by nearly 115 YPG during that stretch and are -65.0 YPG for the season. This is a below average football team, playing on the road w/ a shaky QB situation. Not good. While the Bills have lost three in a row by double digits, only one of the Chiefs' four losses have been by more than six points. They're at home, off an embarrassing defeat and just a better all-around team compared to Buffalo. 10* Kansas City

8* Carolina (1:00 ET): From a power rankings perspective, this may not look like a slam dunk, but I'll side w/ what is the far better team, laying a short number. Both the Panthers and Jets are off byes. But that's basically where the similarities end. Carolina is 7-3 SU and in prime position to get back to the playoffs, even in a crowded in NFC South. The Jets are 4-6 SU, a record which has surprised many as they were pegged to be the worst team in the entire league coming into the season. Where I see the mismatch here is Carolina's defense (holding opponents to 77 YPG below their season averages) against a Jets offense that doesn't top 20 pts very often. The Panthers have a number of ugly wins already in 2017 and this will be yet another. They'll cover the spread though. 

This Carolina defense has been really impressive so far as they are #2 in the league in yards allowed (trailing JAX by less than 3 YPG for top spot) and also top five in points allowed (18.0 per game). They shouldn't find it too difficult stopping a Jets' offense being quarterbacked by journeyman Josh McCown. In the game before the bye, the Jets had only three points before scoring a late TD against the Bucs (lost 15-10) and for the third time in four games didn't even gain 300 total yards. This matchup (Carolina D vs. Jets O) is every bit the mismatch that it appears to be on paper and we're in very good shape on this half of the ledger. The Jets are 24th in the league in YPG differential.

The Carolina offense is also now getting going w/ an avg of 439 YPG the last three weeks. They scored 45 pts in a near 600-yard effort vs. Miami in the last game. Now Cam Newton gets his favorite target (TE Greg Olson) back and the Jets happen to struggle at defending the tight end position, having allowed at least 67 yds to opposing TE's in 6 of 10 games thus far. Furthermore, the running game has gone over 200 yds in B2B games (Newton had 95 vs. Miami). The Jets are only 23rd in the league against the run, a shell of the unit they were when they had Sheldon Richardson clogging up the middle. This is an ideal matchup for the road favorite, who is 60-24 SU vs. teams w/ a losing record in the 2H of the season (55-28 ATS) including eight consecutive victories. 8* Carolina

analysis soon

8* Alabama (3:30 ET): This year's installment of the Iron Bowl is as anticipated as any Alabama-Auburn matchup in recent memory. Certainly, Auburn fans will recall the 2013 game when they upset a top-ranked Bama team here at Jordan-Hare (as 10-pt underdogs) on the now infamous "kick-six." This year, the Crimson Tide again enter the regular season finale unbeaten and ranked #1 in the country (3rd time in last 5 seasons!) and control their destiny for the CFP. But so does #5 Auburn, who would also be in the CFB if they win the next two weeks. The lookahead line for this game was as high as Bama -10 before Auburn's thumping of Georgia two weeks ago. That and a number of injuries for the Tide have conspired to drop it pretty dramatically, to the point where I now feel the value is all on Alabama. Lay the points. 

Both teams got to enjoy "tune-ups" last week. Alabama shutout FCS foe Mercer 56-0 while Auburn beat La Monroe (one of the worst FCS teams) 42-14. It was what happened the prior Saturday, however, that has people believing in the dog here. Auburn absolutely crushed then #1 Georgia 40-17 (as 2.5-pt underdogs) while Alabama survived its lone real scare of the season, winning 31-24 at Mississippi State (Tide were over +100 in total yds). But let's not forget that Auburn also has blown a 20-point lead and lost at LSU and was dominated by Clemson early in the season. They have lost five of the last six Iron Bowls with Alabama's victories coming an average of 24 PPG. Last year, it was 30-12 in Tuscaloosa w/ Bama as a 17-pt favorite. 

The Crimson Tide do have some very real injuries to be concerned about as they are down FOUR linebackers, which could mean trouble facing sensational Auburn RB Kerryon Johnson. But Nick Saban recruits so damn well that this is the only program in America that can successfully endure such attrition. Offensively, Bama is far more balance and dynamic than Georgia, which I believe will be the key to this game. Remember that UGA had a true frosh starting QB on the road. Alabama leads the SEC in rushing yards (270.3 per game), yards per carry (6.03) and rushing touchdowns (35) and QB Jalen Hurts is a tremendous dual threat. Auburn has some injuries on the defensive side of the ball as well and, to me, so many people are thinking upset here that I feel it's best to go on the other side w/ the most proven commodity in the sport. All but two Bama wins this year have been by double digits and one that wasn't was a game they allowed a TD in the final minute. 8* Alabama

8* Ohio State (12:00 ET): One of these years, Jim Harbaugh is actually going to beat Ohio State. It just won't be this year. I'm still bullish on Harbaugh in Ann Arbor, but this clearly wasn't going to be his year as he brought back the least experienced team in the country and has had to cycle through three quarterbacks due to a combination of injury and ineptitude. There were some metrics that suggested a better season could take place for Michigan, but the bottom line is that they always seem to suffer one upset (Michigan State this year) and never win as an underdog. Last week's somewhat sad showing in Madison (lost 24-10 to Wisconsin) dropped Harbaugh to 0-5 SU as a 'dog at his alma mater and he's covered the spread in just one of those games. Ohio State would be favored over every team in the country not named Alabama and is the play here.

The Buckeyes come in ranked #9 in the latest CFP Rankings, but still have a shot at making the playoff if everything breaks right for them. A number of teams ahead of them are going to lose in the next two weeks, so if they win here and next week's Big 10 Championship Game against Wisconsin, there could be an argument for them to be in the top four. While I view them as a top four team on paper, it will be hard for me to buy an argument considering they were blown out twice - by Oklahoma (at home) and Iowa (ouch!). But looking at the raw numbers, you'll find a team that has outscored its Big 10 foes by an amazing 227 points (Wisconsin #2 at +133) and outgained them by an average of 280 yards per game. They've scored 48 or more points SEVEN times in 2017. For the sake of comparison, Michigan has yet to top 36 points in any game this season.

The Wolverines enter this game likely having to start John O'Korn at QB, which is too bad because redshirt freshman Brandon Peters was playing well before being knocked out of last week's game. Tests did come back negative for Peters, so he could conceivably play here, but how effective would he be? Original starter Wilton Speight was knocked out of the Purdue game back in September and hasn't played since. Michigan has a great defense (#9 in efficiency), but Ohio State isn't far behind (#14) and the gap on the other side of the ball is so great that it really doesn't matter. Of course, the Buckeyes have won 12 of the past 13 meetings, including all five under Urban Meyer. In fact, the lone loss to Michigan in those L13 seasons came in the year w/ interim Luke Fickell at the helm. Look for OSU to roll. 8* Ohio State

8* South Florida (3:30 ET): Coming into the year, we all thought this regular season finale would be USF's shot at clinching a spot in the AAC Championship Game and sure enough, that's the case. However, no one could have envisioned that they'd be a double-digit DOG to UCF, who is unbeaten and vying to be the "Group of Five" representative in a "New Year's Six Bowl." (In all likelihood, whomever wins the AAC will be that rep). Memphis (also ranked) is waiting in the wings to play the winner of this game next week. Tip your cap to the job done at Central Florida by Scott Frost, who likely lands himself a higher paying job (Nebraska?) for next season. However, let's not discredit what Charlie Strong has done up the road in Tampa. USF actually had the "bullseye" on them at the start of the year as they were favored to run the table and be in the position UCF is currently in. The Bulls did lose once, to Houston (by four), but that's it. Underdogs for the 1st time in 2017, I'll take them plus the points in this de fact AAC East Championship Game. 

South Florida's lone loss saw them outgain Houston 462-397 and that yardage edge was even greater before they gave up a 9-play, 49-yard drive in the final two minutes to lose 28-24 (were 10.5-pt favorites). Save for that game, it's pretty much been "smooth sailing" for the Bulls. Eight of their 10 wins have come by double digits. Yet, just to illustrate how much the market has "feared" them, they actually come into this game on a 4-game ATS losing streak. Last week saw them  "slip by" Tulsa 27-20, though they actually spent a good deal of the game up double digits. Keep an eye on QB Quinton Flowers, who is every bit the equal of his UCF counterpart McKenzie Milton (#2 in FBS pass efficiency), if not superior. Flowers is 2nd in the nation in QBR (trailing only Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield) and is the 7th player in FBS history to have a career w/ 7,000+ yds passing and 3,000+ yds rushing. 

UCF has outscored its seven AAC opponents by 165 points while USF is at +122. That's a somewhat negligible difference. Even w/ the unbeaten record and playing in Orlando, I just don't see why the Golden Knights are favored by this many points. It is USF that actually has a slight edge on defense as they rank #1 in the conference in both points (19.9) and yards (323.5) per game allowed while UCF is #2 in both categories (20.5, 373.6). UCF has hardly had the most challenging schedule and got a clear break earlier in the year, hosting Memphis in a rescheduled date (Hurricane Irma). Here, it is USF w/ a pretty clear scheduling advantage. They get two extra days to prepare as they last played Thursday while UCF was at Temple Saturday. The Bulls are 6-2 SU in the eight all-time meetings, including a 48-31 win and cover (as 10-pt chalk) LY. 8* South Florida

10* Mississippi (7:30 ET): Mississippi State survived last week in what was a horrendous spot for them, one week removed from a near upset of #1 Alabama and they had this, their rivalry game, on deck (on a short week no less). Dan Mullen's team came from 14-0 down to beat Arkansas, on the road, 28-21 (though they failed to cover as 2 TD favorites). As for rival Ole Miss, they were not as fortunate last weekend, losing to Texas A&M 31-24 in the Oxford finale (shutout in the 2nd half!). Neither team has anything to play for here (Ole Miss bowl ineligible), but you can throw the records out in a rivalry game (the rare cliche that holds true!), thus taking the points is usually a good idea. That's what I'll do here as it's a really big number. 

Tensions are going to be very high Thanksgiving night in Starkville. Needless to say, this game will not be reminiscent of the Pilgrims and Native Americans sitting down for dinner. This rivalry has taken on a really nasty tone w/ it being a Miss State beat writer that was responsible for former, disgraced Ole Miss HC Hugh Freeze's firing when he uncovered Freeze was calling an escort service. So don't think the Rebels won't be trying here. Furthermore, there is the embarrassment left over from last season when the Bulldogs came to Oxford and beat them 55-20 as 10-point underdogs. That did result in the Rebels not making a bowl. Though an injury to QB Shea Patterson in essence "wrecked" their season, I repeat, the underdog is going to be motivated here. It's a rivalry game and a nasty one at that.

Miss State is going to go a decent bowl game and could win 9+ games for a third time in four seasons. But that's pretty much their fate right there. Yes, they'll be motivated to beat their rival as well. But, the margin the oddsmakers are calling for here is the hang up for me. Yes, it's true that when the Bulldogs win, they have typically won big. But it's quite the swing to see them go from 10-pt dogs to more than a two score favorite in one year's time against the same opponent. They'd lost the previous two years and came in ranked both times. Too many things can happen here that would prevent MSU from covering. At the very worst, I expect the backdoor to be open late in the game. 10* Mississippi

8* Dallas (4:25 ET): We've certainly seen a significant market shift on the Cowboys as over the L2 weeks they've been blown out by both the Falcons and Eagles. While so much attention is being paid to the absence of RB Ezekiel Elliott, it is actually the absences of LT Tyron Smith and LB Sean Lee that are really killing the team. In the case of the latter, the defense is allowing 2.3 yards more per rush w/ him off the field and has forced eight fewer turnovers. Sadly, he'll again be out here w/ this being a short week. Smith is listed as questionable currently. So why take a chance on America's Team on Turkey Day? Well, for starters, this line opened at -4. So there's some definite value here. Also, the Chargers aren't the Falcons or Eagles. I'll go w/ the value play here. 

All of a sudden, based on one win and the lack of depth in the AFC, the Chargers are being discussed as a potential playoff team (despite a 4-6 SU record). Look; no one has driven the Bolts' bandwagon harder in the last couple seasons. But I'm sick of getting burned. If you think now is a curious time NOT to be on them, then consider LW's 54-24 win was a byproduct of what turned out to be the most egregious NFL coaching decision in recent memory, that being Buffalo HC Sean McDermott electing to start Nathan Peterman, who turned in simply the worst performance by an NFL QB that I've seen in some time. As bad as Dallas has looked the L2 weeks, QB Dak Prescott is NOT going to throw 5 INT's in 15 attempts in one half of play. No way. 

Look for this game to be decided in the trenches. If Smith could play, it would be a HUGE boost for the Cowboys and their running game. Los Angeles ranks dead last in the league, giving up a ghastly 139 YPG on 4.9 yards per carry. Dallas is more than capable of running the ball w/o Elliott. On defense, the 'Boys should benefit from what remains a very predictable Chargers' offense that runs far too often in obvious situations. Prior to last week, LA had topped 21 pts in a game only twice. It's a pretty big leap to have this team now favored on the road. Almost without fail, their games end up being close (seven decided by one score). This will only be the fourth time they have been favored this season and the first on the road. As a favorite of any kind, the Chargers are just 5-10 ATS the L3 seasons, losing nine of those games outright. 8* Dallas

10* Minnesota (12:35 ET): The injury to Aaron Rodgers all but ended Green Bay's chances of winning the NFC North this year, thereby leaving a huge void that one of the other three teams had to fill. Enter the Minnesota Vikings, who have overcome their own injuries to go 8-2 SU and take a commanding lead in the division. They last lost in Week 4 (more on that in a moment) and since then, it's been six consecutive wins and covers, the latest being a very impressive 24-7 victory over the similarly surprising Rams. But the Purple People Eaters are by no means a "lock" to win the NFC North as we approach Thanksgiving. That's because the last team to beat them, Detroit, is "hot on their heels." Currently two games back, the Lions could deal a huge blow to the Vikings by sweeping the season series for a second consecutive year. They beat them LY on Thanksgiving as well, making this all the more a revenge spot for Minnesota. I'll lay the short number.

I readily admit that Detroit is a team that I expected to regress in 2017. That's because last year's 9-7 SU record did not include a single victory over a fellow playoff team and also required a NFL single-season record EIGHT fourth quarter comebacks! Speaking of single-season records, last year's Lions defense happened to allow the highest completion percentage in a season in league history! The team hasn't had quite the good fortune in close games this season, but did pull one out last week, 27-24 over the Chicago Bears. That game saw the Lions get outgained (398-352) and rally back from an early 10-0 deficit. The always reliable Matt Prater kicked a 52-yard FG w/ 1:35 remaining for the win, though the team had to survive a missed FG attempt by Chicago as time expired. While three straight wins sounds impressive, note the QB's that the Lions have beaten are: Brett Hundley, DeShone Kizer and Mitchell Trubisky, two rookies and a first-year starter.

Minnesota's season was thought to be toast when they had to turn to veteran journeyman Case Keenum, especially when RB Dalvin Cook was also lost for the year. But Keenum is having himself a career year. He's completed 68.2% of his passes over the L3 weeks. The defense also deserves a ton of credit, especially for the job it did against the Rams last week, holding them to only 254 yards, which is well below what they had been averaging. For the year, this Vikings' D ranks 5th in yards and 4th in points allowed. Despite losing to Detroit three straight times, Mike Zimmer's defense has allowed just four touchdowns in those games. That Week 4 meeting, a 14-7 loss, is when Cook was lost for the year and it was just Keenum's third start. Minnesota had the slight edge in total yards, but was -3 in turnovers. Zimmer is an incredible 30-13 ATS since taking over as the HC here and I look for his team to end the Lions' four-year win streak on Thanksgiving. 10* Minnesota

10* Ball State (7:00 ET): Ball State is (very) bad, but after having their dreams of bowl eligibilty dashed last week, I have to figure Miami is pretty crushed emotionally. Therefore, I want zero part of laying this kind of big number (on the road, no less) w/ the RedHawks in what is basically a meaningless regular season finale for them. Ball State at least has the motivation of wanting to send it's seniors out w/ a win in the final home game of the season. The Cardinals also have revenge from a one-point loss in Oxford in LY's reg season finale. Miami scored the GW TD w/ just 5:44 to go and Ball State had a chance to answer, but a 90-yard kickoff return was called back due to holding and they lost 21-20 as a touchdown underdog. The situation is MUCH different this year w/ the RedHawks not having anything to play for (were trying to become bowl eligible LY). Thus, I'll grab the big number. 

This entire season has been one giant disappointment for Miami. They came into 2017 being touted as co-favorites (along w/ Ohio) to win the MAC East after winning their final six regular season games a year ago. They were the first team EVER in NCAA history to open 0-6 and close 6-6 (lost bowl to Miss St). But the magic just wasn't there this year. They've suffered four losses by five points or less, the most crushing of which came last week at home to Eastern Michigan, 27-24. The RedHawks defense allowed 454 total yards in the loss. Despite leading at halftime (17-13), the team really had no shot at winning as they trailed by 10 heading into the fourth quarter. They've now covered just one of their previous seven games to fall to 2-9 ATS on the year, tied for the worst mark in the country at the betting window. 

Now let's get some of the ugly stuff out of the way. Ball State has lost its last eight games (0-7 vs. the MAC), all of them by at least 16 points. The closest they've finished to any conference opponent came LW, hosting Buffalo, as they "only" lost 40-24 and actually covered the spread, thereby snapping a six-game ATS losing skid. But if the players have any pride at all, they'll "show up" in this final game in Muncie. I should point out that Miami is 0-2 ATS as a road favorite this year, losing both games outright. 10* Ball State

10* Seattle (8:40 ET): They are "dropping like flies" in the Seahawks secondary right now (no Sherman or Chancellor), but at home I believe that Russell Wilson and company can carry this team to victory. It's a virtually unprecedented price range here on Seattle in their own stadium as it will be the FIRST time since 2012 that we can catch them laying less than two points here. I can only assume that has to do with this injuries in the secondary, but free safety Earl Thomas is still present and he's always been the most important piece there anyway. After suffering a misleading loss two weeks ago to the Redskins (w/o Thomas), Seattle bounced back w/ a win last Thursday against division rival Arizona. The extra time to prepare here is huge and Atlanta is most certainly NOT what they were last season.

This is a really big game in the NFC Playoff Picture where it's looking like 10 wins may be a requirement for the postseason. Seattle is only one-half game back of the Rams (who lost yday) in the NFC West and they currently own the tiebreak due to a head to head win back in Week 5. The Falcons' situation is a bit more precarious. They have two teams ahead of them in the NFC South currently and even a win tonight would not change that. But what it would do is tie them w/ Seattle for the final Wild Card and obviously give them a much needed tiebreak. Atlanta got a big win LW when they whipped another injury-riddled team, Dallas, 27-7 at home. Of course, the Cowboys were w/o Ezekiel Elliott and Tyron Smith. The task will be much tougher here, not only b/c it's on the road, but they'll also have to contend w/ Wilson.

If it were last season, I'd be far more concerned about the injuries in the Seattle secondary facing this Falcons offense. But it's not last season and Matt Ryan and company clearly miss the playcalling of Kyle Shanahan. It just hasn't been the same offensively for LY's NFC Champs and note that they will also be down a key piece, that being RB Donta Freeman. I can't see the Falcons running the ball for much yardage tonight against what is an outstanding Seattle defensive front. But I think that the key will be Wilson, who is having a MVP-type season as only Tom Brady has thrown for more yards. The home field edge is also very big, especially in a night game and I look for the "12th man" to help the Seahawks pull out an important victory. 10* Seattle

8* Dallas (8:30 ET): The Cowboys' first game w/o Ezekiel Elliott went pretty much as poorly as possible, but as most intelligent observers were quick to note, that had as much to do w/ the team being w/ OL Tyron Smith and not just their star running back. It ended up being a 27-7 loss to a desperate Atlanta team on the road and now Dallas is on the "outside looking in" for what is shaping up to be a very tough NFC playoff picture. This week's opponent, the Philadelphia Eagles, is the envy of every team right now as they have the best record in the league (8-1 SU) coming out of their bye. They haven't loss since Week 2 (Chiefs) and have covered six in a row, making them the dreaded "public side" in primetime here. I sided with a similar "square bet" last Sunday night (New England), but not here as the Cowboys at least have a good QB, something you could NOT say LW for the Broncos. Take the points.

Dallas is entering a critical stretch here, one that could largely determine the fate of their season and they'll be w/o Elliott for five more games. The next three, while all at home, come in a 12-day span as the next two weeks they'll be playing on a Thursday (Thanksgiving included obviously). There's a chance they could still be favored the next two weeks. But the value is on taking them this week, off the blowout loss, against the high-flying Eagles. Perhaps the Cowboys' stock will not be lower at any point the rest of this season than it is right now. HC Jason Garrett has done some of his finest work as a home dog of 3.5 to 7 pts, going 9-4 ATS in that role w/ five outright wins.

Like I said, Philly is "flying high" right now, but perhaps they come out a little "rusty" after the bye week? They did hang an impressive 51 points on Denver's defense in their last game, but Wentz completed only 15 pass attempts in that game. Granted, four were for touchdowns, but it still seems highly unlikely that he'll match that kind of efficiency at any other point this season. Looking at the Eagles' schedule thus far, it's hardly been a gauntlet. They did play (and lose to) the Chiefs, but other than them and possibly (probably?) Carolina, I don't see many potential playoff teams on that list. Dallas, of course, might not find itself in the playoffs thanks to the Elliott suspension. But I don't think they deserve to be this decided of a home dog in this critical NFC East matchup. Philadelphia has actually not been a road favorite of more than a field goal in over three seasons. They actually closed as a dog at LA (Chargers) earlier in the year when they won by only two points. 8* Dallas

8* Buffalo (4:05 ET): Finally, it appears as if we know who the starting QB's will be in this Week 11 matchup - for both teams. Buffalo HC Sean McDermott has elected to make the somewhat "controversial" decision to bench Tyrod Taylor in favor of the unproven Nathan Peterman. What makes the move a "controversial" one is that the Bills - in most people's eyes - have overachieved at 5-4 SU. But the bottom line is they were 5-2 before ugly losses to the Jets and Saints and those precipitated the change. Something my regulars will note is that I've actually been a buyer on the Bills from the start, in spite of all the moves that make it seem they're not trying to be successful in 2017. I'm holding a ticket on them Over 6.5 wins and would not have expected that could be a winner so soon on the season (still need two). I will again "go against the grain" with them here. 

The Chargers also are dealing with their own QB situation this week. Philip Rivers found himself in the concussion protocol this week and is currently listed as questionable. HC Anthony Lynn stated on Friday that Rivers "looked fine," but he remains uncleared as of press time. Whether or not Rivers plays here will be irrelevant to the selection. The bottom line is that I would not want to lay points w/ the Lightning Bolts right now. If Rivers isn't able to play, it would be a significant downgrade to Kellen Clemens. I've tried and tried to keep believing in this LA team, but at 3-6 SU, they are nearing the point of irrelevancy. Last week marked the latest in the long line of inept losses as they fell to Jacksonville 20-17 (in overtime) despite intercepting Jags' QB Blake Bortles TWICE in the final three minutes of regulation! (You can't make this stuff). Another point I need to make is that the Chargers have the worst homefield "advantage" in the league. They are just 1-3 SU/ATS in their temporary (30,000 capacity) stadium. 

This selection also boils down to the fact that you can't trust the Chargers laying points. They're just 4-10 ATS in that role the L3 seasons w/ NINE outright losses! This year, they've lost outright both times they've been installed as the chalk - to Miami and to Philadelphia (how bad does that line look in retrospect?). Considering almost all of their games end up being close, why would you want to back them as favorites. Six of their nine games this season have been decided by five points or less, four of those losses. Over the L3 seasons, they are 6-21 SU in games decided by a TD or less. With Peterman under center, look for the Bills to run the ball a lot here, which is an effective strategy considering the Chargers own the league's second worst run defense. Rivers or not, don't look for the Bills' defense to be tested much in this game. Los Angeles comes in averaging just 18.6 points per game and has not topped 21 in the last month. Again, not a team I'd want to lay points with right now. I'll put my trust in McDermott in this spot. 8* Buffalo

10* Washington (1:00 ET): Right now, every NFC division is being led by a "surprise" team, whose bandwagons are filling up rapidly. None more so than the Saints, who have won and covered seven straight games (after an 0-2 start), including a 47-10 massacre of the Bills up in Buffalo last week. A team that has leaned almost exclusively on QB Drew Brees and the passing game for a decade has undergone a somewhat radical transformation in 2017. There's now both a running game and some defense being played in the Big Easy and those are the primary reasons New Orleans is leading the NFC South right now. But before we go praising them too much, let's be sure to note the slate of opposing offenses they've faced during this run of theirs has hardly been comprised of world-beaters. Therefore, I see some value here on Washington, who has a solid offense. Take the points.

During this seven-game run, the Saints have beaten Cam Newton and Carolina (34-13) as well as Matt Stafford and Detroit (52-38). But here are the other five QB's they've gotten to face: Jay Cutler (MIA = worst offense in NFL), Brett Hundley (1st career start), Mitchell Trubisky (rookie), Ryan Fitzpatrick (backup for inj Jameis Winston) and Tyrod Taylor (now benched). Say what you will about Redskins' QB Kirk Cousins, but he's no worse than the third best QB the Saints will have seen over the last two months. Looking at Washington's recent schedule, they've had to face Philadelphia, Dallas (w/ Ezekiel Elliott), Seattle and Minnesota. Therefore, I'm not really surprised that they come into this game only having won one of their last four games. Not many teams would go .500 against that gauntlet.

It also appears as if the Redskins are getting healthier. Injuries along the offensive line coincided with the strength in schedule increasing, which is a "double whammy." But that unit is now a bit healthier. Cousins and the passing game rank third in the league in attempts of 20+ yards downfield, so the Saints secondary should get a real test this week. Also, for as much as the NO defense is being lauded right now, they still only rank 27th against the run. The Saints have twice covered TD spreads, but those games were against Chicago and Tampa Bay, teams that are inferior compared to Washington. Truthfully, New Orleans' 7-2 SU record shouldn't be that surprising considering they've been favored six of the last seven games. Meanwhile, Washington has been favored only ONCE all season as they've taken on the league's most difficult schedule to this points. Saints' stock could not possibly be higher right now, so I view this as an appropriate time to fade. 10* Washington

10* USC (8:00 ET): They say to "throw away" the records in a rivalry game, but in this game, the respective records actually understate the advantage one team has over the other. USC comes in a 9-2 SU, having not had a bye week all season. While they were blown out by Notre Dame last month, their only other loss came on a Friday night at Wazzu, a game in which they lost THREE different offensive lineman to injury. The Trojans had been a disappointment at the betting window much of the year, but not lately as they come into the final riding a 3-game ATS win streak. (I had them LW vs. Colorado). UCLA is 5-5 SU, needing a win for bowl eligibility, but despite having QB Josh Rosen, they're simply overmatched in this spot. The Bruins' previous efforts on the road have been nothing short of disastrous and Saturday night will be no different. 

You are almost certainly aware of the QB battle in this game as USC's Sam Darnold and UCLA's Josh Rosen came into this season as perhaps the two most highly touted pro prospects at their position. Rosen's resume has taken a slight hit due to injury and his team's ineptitude, but like Darnold, better days lay ahead. (An interesting sidenote: the respective fathers were once a doctor (Rosen) and janitor (Darnold) at the same hospital). Darnold has certainly had the better year statistically and has the better supporting cast to lean on. Especially when he hands the ball off to RB Ronald Jones II (552 yards L3 games), who should "slice and dice" a UCLA rush defense which ranks DEAD LAST in the country (302.3 YPG allowed!).

Both offenses are averaging slightly more than 35 PPG, but the key here lies on the defensive end where USC is allowing roughly 12 PPG fewer and that the game takes place at the Coliseum. I already talked about how Darnold and Jones should have their way w/ this UCLA defense, but let's come back to that. The Bruins have been nothing short of abhorrent in road games this year, going 0-5 SU, allowing 49 points and 533 yards per game. Yes, Rosen has missed time. But that's still no excuse for these hideous performances. Last week, they were very lucky to "only" give up 37 points at home to Arizona State, who had jumped out to a 14-0 lead before settling for too many field goals in the second half. USC has not lost a home game this season, outscoring their visitors by 13.6 points per over the six games. The Trojans have beaten the Bruins by 19 and 22 points each of the L2 years (had lost 5 in a row previous to that) and mark my words - this team is going to win the Pac 12. 10* USC