SF barley got by both their opponents in the play offs, and despite of the vast array of talent have looked vulnerable of late especially on D, which is not a good omen going against the likes of super star QB Mahomes and company. ( Mahomes is 13-1 ATS L/13 as an underdog in his career )  Also the Chiefs D, has the stopping power to slow down the mighty 49ers offense, and here in the NFL championship game as the old adage goes Defense wins championships. We all know how good SF is behind RB Christian Macaffery but it must be noted that  KANSAS CITY is 10-1 ATS  versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 or more  rushing yards/carry in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS  versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 or more  rushing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.KANSAS CITY is 7-3 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO since 1992. 

Play on KC to cover-Play as low as a pickem for Chiefs 

SF looked rusty after their lay off vs Green Bay last week, but are by far the superior side here this week according to projections on both sides of the ball. The Lions were great at home this season but no matter where they played their D was inconsistent, especially on the road where they allowed an average of 24.7 ppg . After watching them barely get by the Buccaneers last week, its obvious to me they are in over their heads this week. Hey I love the way the Lions played this season, and how far they have come, but like I said Im betting disappointment awaits them in SF this Sunday. 

SAN FRANCISCO is 23-9 ATS   vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

SAN FRANCISCO is 20-8 ATS  vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

SAN FRANCISCO is 9-0 straight up against DETROIT L/9 at home. 

DETROIT is 9-22 ATS  L/31 in road games against NFC West division opponents. 

Play on the SF 49ers to cover

 Chiefs D, got them into the play offs and after looking dormant for a long time now look to be in top form which is not a good thing for any of their opponents. I know the Baltimore D is top notch but the way Mahomes looked this past week, and how the running game was also in sync it will be hard to bet against him. Also something that is always troubling to me is a team like the Ravens who played all out football all season, without any really struggles. Are they do for a down game? Its not uncommon for teams like this to hit a wall at some point. Whether that is the case or not Im still backing the Chiefs super star QB and probably the best coach in the NFL . Note: HC Reid is 13-4 ATS  off an upset win as a road underdog as the coach of KANSAS CITY. Reids L/26 as a road underdog of 7 points or less as the coach of KANSAS CITY with the average ppg diff clicking in at +1.

Reid is 22-9 ATS  as a road underdog as the coach of KANSAS CITY.

KANSAS CITY is 7-0 ATS  versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 or more  rushing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

BALTIMORE is 0-6 ATS  in home games after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game over the last 2 seasons.BALTIMORE is 0-6 ATS  in home games after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game over the last 2 seasons.

Play on KC Chiefs to cover

The Bills and Chiefs battled in a 23-20 decision by the visitors on Dec 10/2023 of this season in Kansas City. Alot of things went wrong for the Chiefs in that game, and some questionable calls by the officials were the icing on the cake . HC Reid and company now have revenge on board, and at this time of year, Ds trump offenses. With that said, entering this game the  Chiefs Defense is operating at high level , allowing an average 15.5 ppg in their L/6 overall and Im betting will be the difference maker in a headline game that has the pundits  focused on the QB matchup of  Allen and Mahomes. 

Reid is 10-1 ATS  in road games revenging a close loss by 7 points or less to opponent as the coach of KANSAS CITY.KANSAS CITY is 21-8 ATS  in road games revenging a close loss by 7 points or less to opponent   . Reid is 21-9 ATS  as a road underdog as the coach of KANSAS CITY.

KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS  versus good rushing teams - averaging 130  or more rushing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS  after allowing 9 points or less last game over the last 3 seasons.

Play on KC Chiefs to cover 

 The Buccaneers knocked off the Philadelphia Eagles in convincing fashion on Monday night to advance to the 2nd round and deserve respect here in the underdog role. I know  Detroit took out the Bucs in  Week 6 of this season, by a , 20-6 count but it must be noted that TAMPA BAY is 6-0 ATS revenging a loss where team scored less than 14 points over the last 2 seasons. The way TB QB Baker Mayfield’s played in   their  Wild Card win sets a  positive momentum driver for the Buccaneers and Im betting he goes toe to toe with Lions QB Goff and we get the cover.

TAMPA BAY is 8-1 ATS in road games this season with 7 of those  covers coming as dogs. TAMPA BAY is 6-0 ATS  in road games against conference opponents this season.

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (DETROIT) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 19-51 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home teams (DETROIT) - with an incredible offense - averaging 385 or more total yards/game, after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games are 6-27 ATS L/5 seasons for a 82% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit

The Packers pulled off a huge upset last time out vs Dallas but. now Rookie QB Love and company will go against a well rested SF 49ers side that will be fully ready to make sure the same fate does not hold true for them this week. Note: NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (GREEN BAY) - off a upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 6-25 ATS L/31 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate.

SAN FRANCISCO is 19-7 ATS against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons with a average ppg diff +12.6 which qualifies on this ATS offering.SAN FRANCISCO is 16-5 ATS vs. struggling  passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +13.5.

Play on SF 49ers to cover 

Texas rookie QB  CJ Stroud Im betting will finally have his hands full in the play off game vs a well rested   No. 1 seed. The kid is great, but this is just to huge a step up in class here for him. Baltimore won the first meeting this season against Stroud in company by a 25-9 count  and a repeat performance looks to be in cards here according to my projections. Baltimore has won 7 straight meetings in this series  at home.  BALTIMORE is 7-0 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +10.4. 

Play on Baltimore to cover

Philadelphia's QB Hurts in his L/4 post season games has just  4 passing touchdowns, 2 interceptions, and an 84.7 passer rating and recently he has looked atrocious under center with a 82.7 passer rating. Meanwhile, on the flip-side , Tampa Bays QB Baker Mayfield ,  while not terrific  has been clutch in key situations. I believe the current show down favors Mayfield against a Eagles side that has looked consistently worse and has struggled more and more as this season has progressed. 

I know the Eagles beat the Bucs earlier this season but it must be noted that  NFL home pups  in the Wild Card Round  playing with same-season revenge are 9-1-1 ATS L/11. Wild card underdogs playing as hosts are 14-3 1 ATS L/17 overall. 

PHILADELPHIA is 0-8 ATS in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons.

NFL Road teams vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival, when playing on Monday night are 8-34 L/31 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFLHome teams (TAMPA BAY) - after going under the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record in the second half of the seasons are 28-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tampa Bay to cover

Bills coach Sean McDermott makes alot of bad decisions in key spots and does not get alot of respect from many NFL pundits. Josh Allan is a top tier QB , but he has been less than explosive this season, and also has a penchant for bad decisions. Meanwhile, HC Mike Tomlin is probably playing for his job and Im betting we see a top tier version of him and his team here . Take the points.

BUFFALO is 0-6 ATS in home games after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons.

PITTSBURGH is 6-0 ATS in road games off a division game over the last 2 seasons.

PITTSBURGH is 7-0 ATS  versus poor rushing defenses - allowing  4.5 or more  rushing yards/carry in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

PITTSBURGH is 47-27 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992. Tomlin is 23-13 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of PITTSBURGH.

NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PITTSBURGH) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 53-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Pittsburgh to cover

The Los Angeles Rams have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games (+7.00 Units / 48% ROI) and enter this game with momentum and should not be underestimated in their ability to pull off the SU upset vs a Lions side that has been suspect defensively at times this season. 

McVay is 29-17 ATS  in road games against conference opponents as the coach of LA RAMS. McVay is 13-5 ATS   vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. in the second half of the season as the coach of LA RAMS. Note: Detroit  has not faced a WR duo like this.  Kupp has the second-most receiving yards ever in a season with 1,947 back in 2021, 17 yards behind Lions Hall of Fame wide receiver Calvin Johnson and Nacua, who broke two records for rookie receivers in 2023. Detroits suspect secondary will be the negative diff maker in this tilt. 

NFL Home teams (DETROIT) - with an incredible offense - averaging 385 or more total yards/game, after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games are 6-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a  go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Rams 

An inexperienced QB at the helm of the Packers offense (Love)  makes them vulnerable in this road  play off game vs a seasoned Cowboys QB  Dak Prescott  . Cowboys HC McCarthy is 66-37 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points in all games he has coached since 1992.

DALLAS is 9-1 ATS  in home games after having won 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons

NFL Underdogs of +140 to +325 vs. the money line (GREEN BAY) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (1.25 or less turnovers/game committed) after 8+ games, after a game where they forced no turnovers are 4-43 L/31 seasons for a 92% conversion rate with a average ppg diff of -10.5 which qualifies on this ATS offering. 

NFL Road underdogs vs. the money line (GREEN BAY) - after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 3 straight games are 4-24 L/5 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors with a average ppg diff of -9.4. 

Play on Dallas to cover

The Dolphins were beaten up on by both  Baltimore and Buffalo over their final 2 games and enter this game with a lack of momentum. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have achieved a decent season, thanks to a solid D, instead of what you might think would be their stud QB Mahomes. In a big play off game like this Im betting the Chiefs D, and clutch QB play in a spot light affair will be the difference maker. In other words the Chiefs play off experience will be an important factor as well. Also one last thing the game time temps of this affair are expecting to be in the single digits which does not bode well for a side use to playing football in warmer temps.MIAMI is 0-6 ATS   in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) over the last 3 seasons. MIAMI is 0-7 ATS   after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.KANSAS CITY is 8-1 ATS   versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 or more  rushing yards/carry in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.Reid is 15-4 ATS   versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 or more  rushing yards/game in the second half of the season as the coach of KANSAS CITY.

Mahomes is 11-3 SU in the postseason. He has led the Chiefs at least to the AFC title game five years in a row, and appeared  in the Super Bowl three times, and won it twice. He has 35 touchdowns and seven interceptions in 14 post season tilts. rinse and repeat. 

Play on Chiefs to cover

The Chicago Bears come into this game having won  four of its last five games, with the only l defeat coming by 3 points. I know the Green Bay Packers desperately need a win here to get a wild card spot in the post season,  QB Justin Fields is finally starting to look like a top tier NFL QB and will be  primed to make sure the Bears  dont just lie down and play dead for the Packers.    In his L/9 trips to the gridiron  he has passed for  1,838 yards, 13 TDs, and  uses his legs proficiently rushing  521 rushing yards, This game looks much closer to a pickem according to my projections. Spoiler alert in play here. Oh one last thing I know Green Bay has owned the Bears in the recent past but that was with Aaron Rodgers under center. 

GREEN BAY is 0-6 ATS   after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game over the last 3 seasons which was the case last time out. 

CHICAGO is 6-0 ATS  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season this season.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (CHICAGO) - with a sub par passing D - allowing a comp pct of 64% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 61-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Chicago Bears to cover

The SF 49ers are expected to rest  their key starters here today giving the Rams a rare advantage .  The Rams are running hot having  three straight and six of its past seven games. Considering the The Rams are 9-0 ATS as a division road pup it is not a hard decision to take the points here today. The Rams also have the added motivation of revenge for a loss earlier this season to the 49ers- Note: McVay is 7-0 ATS in road games revenging a same season loss against opponent as the coach of LA RAMS. Also the Niners are off a  DD win vs the Washington last week by a 27-10 count which is not necessarily good omen as Shanahan is 1-8 ATS  ) in home games off a double digit road win as the coach of SAN FRANCISCO.

NFLHome teams (SAN FRANCISCO) - outgaining their opponents by 1.75 or more passing yards/attempt, after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 28-61 L/10 seasons for a 69% go against conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the LA Rams to cover

Blaine Gabbert starts for the Chiefs today. The  last time he started was in 2018  season for the Tennessee Titans. KC cannot do any better than where they are entering the play offs and are not really interested opponents for the Chargers today. There will plenty of Chargers hopefuls that will be primed to play this game considering the Chargers will be over hauled in the off season. Advantage Chargers. KANSAS CITY KC is 0-6 ATS   in road games after outgaining opp by 100 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.Reid is 1-10 ATS   in road games after outgaining opp by 100 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games in all games he has coached since 1992.

Play on the LA Chargers to cover

After having been robbed in the previous game because of suspect officiating the Detroit Lions are in a nasty mood and ready to take their frustrations out this week vs the visiting Minnesota Vikings The Lions  own a 6-0 SU/ATS L/6 record against Vikings and here at home have a been a dominant side, winning five of seven games while scoring 30.6 ppg. Advantage Motown.

DETROIT is 11-1 ATS  vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.Campbell is 9-0 ATS  vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season as the coach of DETROIT.

Play on the Lions to cover

The Ravens enter in this game expected to rest alot of players and the Steelers are in desperation mode as they need to win this game for any chance they have to get into the play offs, and some luck. The Ravens are a deep team and must not underestimated in their abilities to compete here even with some of their key starters on the side lines. It must be  noted that 17 of the previous 31 games in this series have been decided by a field go or less and 24 of those games by one score or less. It must also be noted that the Ravens are  13-1-1 ATS as a home pup in this series when the Steelers own an above .500 record.  BALTIMORE is also 11-2 ATS   as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

 PITTSBURGH is 0-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.

NFLFavorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PITTSBURGH) - after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 23-50 ATS L/10 seasons for a 69% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Ravens to cover

Las Vegas is off a big win last time out at KC and are 5--1-1 ATS under new interim HC Antonio Pierce . With momentum on their sides going against a Colts side, that is just 1-6 ATS hosting AFC West opposition taking points here with the reborn Raiders looks very much to be. viable betting option. It must also be noted that the visitor in this series is 5-0 ATS L/5 and  Raiders’ interim head coach's  when coming off a victory the last three seasons, are  5-1 ATS as a pups, and 3-0 ATS against opposition like the Colts  coming off a SUATS defeat.

LAS VEGAS is 7-0 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game over the last 3 seasons. (Beat KC last week 20-14)

INDIANAPOLIS is 16-31 ATS  when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) since 1992.

NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (LAS VEGAS) - with a terrible passing D - allowing a comp pct of 64% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 36-11 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Las Vegas to cover

 I know the Bucs won last time out as hosts, but that has been a recipe for disaster for their betting backers as they are  0-5-1 ATS at home off a home game. I know QB Baker Mayfield has looked great for the Bucs, but today he goes against a desperate Saints side that needs wins to have the possibility of making the pay offs. Today revenge and desperation trump the Bucs situational algorithms. 

NEW ORLEANS is 21-8 ATS L/29 in road games revenging a same season loss against opponent and are 5-0 ATS when they have triple revenge on board. (Saints have lost last three to TB including a game this season)

NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 ATS L/15  in road games vs. struggling  passing defenses - allowing 260 or more passing yards/game after 8+ games  .

NFL team (TAMPA BAY) - off an upset win as a home underdog, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season are 5-25 ATS L/30 seasons for. go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on New Orleans to cover

Baltimore is off a huge DD road win vs the SF 49ers last time out and will be in natural letdown spot here this Sunday. Note: NFL team (BALTIMORE) - off a double digit win as a road underdog of 6 more are 13-38 ATS L/10 seasons in their followup tilt. Also BALTIMORE is 0-6 ATS  in home games after a win by 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons and top gun QB Lamar Jackson is 0-3 ATS as a home favorite when coming off a straight up underdog victory. 

Meanwhile, Miami is off a ugly 22-20 win vs Dallas last time out and continue to uptrend in my power rankings. NFL Road underdogs or pick (MIAMI) - good offensive team - scoring 24 or more points/game, after a win by 3 or less points are 97-49 ATS L/30 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

The Fins have also played teams like the Ravens tough recently going  6-0 ATS  vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Miami has covered their L/2 vs the Ravens including one here in Maryland and get my backing to cover this week in a key spot play. 

Play on Miami to cover

Dallas' offense has looked a little inconsistent the past two games as  Dak Prescott was limited to 134 passing yards by the Bills , but is more than capable of a bounce back effort here at home.In the team's home games, Prescott has completed 74 % of his passing attempts with 20 touchdowns and just two interceptions. Rinse and repeat on todays agenda vs visiting Motown. 

Dallas is 15-0 SU and 12-3 ATS at home in this last 15 games overall , including a 5-0 ATS  when coming off a loss and are in bounce back mode. DALLAS is 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Dallas also matches up well vs a explosive team like the Lions, going   7-0 ATS ( in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. over the last 2 seasons 

Play on Cowboys to cover

Philadelphia  before their current 3 games losing streak had won 24 of 28 games . Despite of the negatives of their current skein this is still a proud side with enough top tier talent for a conclusive bounce back effort. I know the Giants had won 3 straight before getting lambasted by DDs last week at New Orleans , but this is a side that has been out yarded in 6 straight games and just don't have the wheels to compete here vs a frustrated and redemption minded side. Its not often I lay this much lumber, but that what Im recommending we do this Monday. 

Super Bowl losing sides from the previous season  like the Eagles are  9-1 SU L/10 opportunities   when playing off three consecutive  defeats, including 3-0 SUATS at home by an average ppg diff of 14 ppg. 

NFL team (PHILADELPHIA) - off an upset loss as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season is 43-14 ATS L/10 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Eagles to cover

Kyler Murray is set to make his sixth start since returning from injury.The QB   has completed 62.1 percent of his passes for 1,075 yards, four touchdowns and four interception while rushing  for 155 yards and three scores and Im betting he will be the difference maker vs a Bears side he matches up well against. 

ARIZONA is 9-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons.Arizona 9-2 ATS in their last eleven non-division tilts and 5-1 ATS L/6 in this series.

CHICAGO is 0-7 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. 

CHICAGO is 0-7 ATS  after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game over the last 2 seasons.CHICAGO is 0-6 ATS  after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game over the last 2 seasons.

Chicago  1-5 ATS L/6 as short non-division home favorite  of 6 or less points.

Play on the Arizona Cards to cover

Seattle is not playing well, despite of finding a way to win last time out, coming from behind to beat a tired Philadelphia Eagles side  20-17 count. After 4 straight exhausting games against the 49ers twice and the Cowboys and the Eagles last time out, Im betting the Seahawks dont have alot left in the tank.  It must also be noted that the Seahawks are  0-5 SU in away tilts  this season since its Bye Week. With  Tennessee owning a 6-1 ATS record in this series  and the fact that they are 4-0 SUATS this season   off a loss the Titans look like viable underdogs. 

NFL Road teams (SEATTLE) - poor rushing team (70-95 RY/game) against a team with an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/game), after being outrushed by 75 or more yards in 2 straight games are 22-53 ATS L/30 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tennessee to cover

After two top tier victories in a row vs KC and Dallas, Im betting on the Bills to be in a letdown spot here in Southern California tonight vs a Chargers side   that is a  perfect 5-0 SU at home in this series and a  5-0 ATS in its last five games as a double-digit underdog . It must be noted that the Bills are 0-6 ATS L/5 as DD favs. I know the Bills need wins for a play off admission but a victory does not mean things will go all that easily , especially against a side that looks to be running the ball this week alot because their starting star QB Hebert in out. Note: The Bills rush D, is kind of wonky as is evident by allowing 4.6 ypc. Advantage Chargers 

NFL Underdogs of 10.5 or more points (LA CHARGERS) - after 2 or more consecutive losses, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 30-4 ATS L/10 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.

Chargers to cover

Pittsburgh QB  Rudolph, has  gone  5-4-1 SU and 5-3-2 ATS as a starter in his NFL career but has , a 2-0 SU record vs the Bengals. . HC Tomlin has never a had losing NFL season and he is 22-9 when he brings his team in with a .500 record and are  11-4 SU as a host   including 4-0 SUATS as a pup.  Its not easy going with a Steelers team that has scored an average of just 13 points in their L/5 games, but I feel confident we have a top tier  spot position to bet into as the Steelers really need a victory here to catch the possibility of a play off spot.  I like the Steelers chances of having the favor of the  God of Fortune  on their sides here in Steel Town this Saturday. 

PITTSBURGH is 8-1 ATS (after allowing 30 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons. Steelers are 5-0 SU/ATS L/5 at home off a 3 game losing run! Steelers are 4-0 SU/ATS L/4 Saturday home games.

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PITTSBURGH) - after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 37-13 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Pittsburgh Steelers

 Rams are currently sitting on the  No. 7 playoff seeding spot, and edging out the Saints, so this is an all important game thats every bit as important as a playoff game. I know the Saints looked good last time out, but  they have  long history of inconsistent efforts after a win as is evident by  Allens  4-15 ATS record   after 1 or more consecutive wins in all games he has coached since 1992 and his .1-7-1 ATS mark  coming off a double-digit victory. NEW ORLEANS is also  1-9 ATS  after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons.

Meanwhile the Rams have played their best ball late in the season recently as they are 10-1 ATS in December games over the last 3 seasons. Considering the home side in this series is a perfect 8-0 SU/ATS Im like the Rams to come out here with a truly top tier prime time effort and for us to grab the cash by backing him.

Play on the Rams to cover

QB Hurts is not 100% for Philadelphia and is questionable for this game against Seattle. Even if he plays I like the Seahawks chances of covering and possibly even pulling off the upset. The Eagles according to my power rankings are over rated and after watching them get shellacked  the last two  weeks by SF, and Dallas my assumptions were justified, my  Note: I know Seattle has not faired well in their L/2  as dogs but from a historical standpoint have an edge here. 

The Seattle Seahawks are 16-1 ATS when off consecutive losses as a underdog, including 12-0 ATS the last 12 tilts overall.

PHILADELPHIA is 0-6 ATS  in road games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse over the last 2 seasons.

SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS   after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. 

Seattle is 6-1 ATS L/7 in this series. 

Play on Seattle 

The Ravens  are in a look ahead spot here as they face  San Francisco next Monday night, and could easily be over looking this opponent or at least not focused 100% which they will have to be vs a revv up group of Jaguars. The Ravens are just 1-7 ATS L/8 off consecutive wins, and  just 3-7 L/10  SU meetings in this series and  lost last year here on this field by a 28-27 count. Jacksonville have cashed 7 of their L/9 as dogs, and have cashed in 6 of their :/7 Sunday games. 

Play on Jacksonville Jags to cover

The Niners have clinched a play off spot and this a situation where they could be more interesting in staying healthy than playing their top players the entire game through. This game has letdown written all over it. From a historical standpoint the Niners are just 0-4 ATS L/4 on the road as DD favs dating back 11 seasons. Arizona is  8-1 ATS as a home dog of  9 or more points when at home when taking on a  .750 or better foe.Also Road favorites of 10.5 or more points (SAN FRANCISCO) - team outgaining opponents by 1.5+ yards per pass against team outgained by 1.5+ yards per pass are just 6-27 ATS dating back to 1983. 

Play on Arizona Cards to cover

 Kansas City has lost 2 straight and are now fully focused on a start to finish beat down of this opponent. The last game hurt as the Chiefs lost to the Bills by a 20-17 count and were not impressed by the officiating which Im betting has them pumped up entering this tilt.  Note: The chiefs are 5-0 SU/ATS L/5 off a home loss. I know the Pats got a surprise win last week, but its not going to happen this week, and Im betting on it. 

NEW ENGLAND is 1-7 ATS  vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better this season.NEW ENGLAND is 0-6 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games this season.

NFL Road teams (KANSAS CITY) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 32-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on KC Chiefs to cover

The Texans are planning to start Case Keenum on Sunday against the Tennessee Titans, instead of Stroud who is on concussion protocol. Despite of this I steel feel the Texans are  capable of covering this number vs a Titans team that  despite of stunning victory vs the Fins last tike look lifeless more often than not and will now be in a letdown spot. Houston has covered 5 of their L/7 road games while the Titans are 1-5 L/6 vs AFC South sides.

NFL Underdogs or pick (HOUSTON) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games in the second half of the season are 33-9 ATS L/30 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home favorites (TENNESSEE) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing 1 or less turnovers/game, after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 8-30 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Texans to cover

Detroit has been explosive offensively this season, but they go against a tough Denver D  that hasn't given up more than 22 points in the last eight games. Also the Lions have looked vulnerable even before   their loss to Green Bay on Thanks Giving as was evident when they found a way past  the Los Angeles Chargers (41-38) on a last-second field goal,  and also needed two late touchdowns to rally past Chicago (31-26) at home previous to Turkey Debacle and are off a loss to Chicago in the rematch last time out. With that said, one side looks to be uptrending ( Denver) while the other despite of the accolades in downtrending ( Detroit.) Advantage Broncos to cover. 

They barely held off New Orleans (33-28) after taking an early 21-0 lead, then were soundly defeated by the last-place Bears 28-13 Sunday.

NFL  team vs the money line (DENVER) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, in the last 4 weeks of the regular season are 33-6 L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (DENVER) - with a sub par passing D - allowing a comp pct of 64% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 36-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (DETROIT) - after allowing 25 points or more in 4 straight games are 8-30 ATS L/30 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Denver has won 2 of the L/3 meetings here in Motown. 

Play on Denver to cover

Im expecting the return of TJ Watts to  ignite the Steelers here today. Hey I know the Steelers have suffered  consecutive home losses to Arizona and New England, but HC Tomlin has a way of getting his troops to perform at optimal levels when you least expect it. I also know the Colts are playing decent ball of late, but their D remains a concern and can implode at any time like they did last week in a  34-14 loss on Sunday in Cincinnati.

Tomlin is 33-17 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games as the coach of PITTSBURGH. 

NFL Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PITTSBURGH) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in December games. 

Colts are 2-17 SU L/19 in this series  – including 0-3 SUATS the last three times as favs. 

Play on the Steelers to cover

Los Angeles' 24-17 home win over Las Vegas in Week 4 and according to my power rankings still matchup well here giving us an edge taking points. I know Chargers QB  Juston Herbert is gone for the season, but  Easton Stick  is viable backup and must not be disrespected. Quote: "Look, I understand North Dakota State is not the National Football League, but I'm used to winning," said Stick, who played college football for the Bison. "I only know one way." End Quote. both teams are seeing alot of nagging injuuries take their tolls on both sides, but depth charts still suggest getting points here is optimal. 

LA CHARGERS are 22-9 ATS L/31 versus poor offensive teams - averaging 285 or less yards/game in the second half of the season.

LAS VEGAS is 1-9 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CHARGERS) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in December games are 34-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road teams (LA CHARGERS) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in December games are 93-38 ATS L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Chargers to cover

After three straight underdog wins the Packers are back in the play off race, against a side the NY Giants that are not. Thats not a good thing from my perspective, as the Giants are playing loose while  the Packers will now feeling pressure to perform and  could easily be in a letdown situation after that trio of surprising victories. Also the Gemn have momentum coming into this prime time affair, after win last week and are now feeling alot more confident about themselves. 

Daboll is 15-6 ATS  vs. sub standard  passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse as the coach of NY GIANTS.

NFLRoad favorites (GREEN BAY) - in a game involving two sub standard  defensive teams (335 to 370 YPG), after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 6-28 ATS L/40 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY GIANTS) - slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 14 points or less last game are 34-12 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on NY Giants to cover

Its not easy going against a Cowboys side that  has won 14 consecutive games at home ,but thats what Im about to recommend we do. I know the Eagles had their clocks cleaned vs the SF 49ers last week, but even top tier teams like the Eagles can have an off week. I also know the Boyz despite of their strong current run still have not beaten an .above .500 team this season, and do most of their damage against sub par sides.  With that said and considering the fact that the Eagles when  QB Jalen Hurts, is on the field play vs an above .500 squad like the Cowboys the Eagles  have gone  14-1 SU  L/15 . 

PHILADELPHIA is 7-0 ATS  in road games after allowing 30 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992.

NFL Home teams vs. the money line (DALLAS) - excellent offensive team (370 or more  YPG) against a team with a struggling defense (335 to 370 YPG), after allowing 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 8-18 L/10 seasons for ago against 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Philadelphia to cover

The Chiefs have not performed optimally of late , but don't be mistaken this a top tier team that is capable of capturing a Super Bowl and now in bounce back mode after a down effort vs the Packers last time out. Meanwhile, nothing has come easily for the Bills this season, and Im betting they will find themselves in a tough spot this week in KC. Buffalo has failed to cover 7 of their L/8. BUFFALO is 1-8 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.Reid is 41-21 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of KANSAS CITY. bottom line is here, is that Im big believer in Mahomes and the Chiefs, add to that I have some futures bets on the Chiefs winning the Super Bowl and you might understand why Im taking this position. 

Play on the KC Chiefs to cover

Texans behind rookie QB Stroud are getting alot of accolades, but after escaping Broncos last drive last week that stalled on Houstons 8 yard line, they enter into this game as road chalk something that they dont have a great history of being successful at ,as is evident by failing in 6 of their  L/7 in the chalk role. Add to that the Texans lost  one their top WR Dell, which Im betting will be a blow to them in this spot and you have a situation that could easily see the under performing ( Im being nice here) pulling off the upset and more importantly getting us the cover.

HOUSTON is 3-11 ATS  when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY JETS) - slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 14 points or less last game are 34-12 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate.

Jets 3-1 ATS L/4 meetings in this series.

Play on NY Jets to cover

Bengals QB Browning shocked alot of ppl in his big performance last week that saw him break some records for a back up , but Im betting he will suffer regression here this week, after that miraculous 34-31 OT underdog win vs the Jags.  This is an important game for both the Bengals and the  Colts, as post season implication prevail in what should be a grueling affair.   NFL  team (CINCINNATI) - off a huge upset win as a double digit underdog, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 3-21 ATS L/30 seasons for a 88% go against conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Colts to cover 

Bill Belichick’s Patriots just cant score, they have no flow to their offense what so ever. The Steelers are also not much better, but they have shown some signs of like under new offensive coordinator Canada. .  This could easily be a snore fest , and the linesmakers know it setting a total of around 30 points on this tilt.  I know  most of the  general public are not interested in this game, but from a bettors perspective their are some edges that can be isolated giving us the edge needed to cash a ticket. First off the Steelers after a big win feel asleep at the wheel last time out, which brings into play a strong bounce back tendency form HC  Mike Tomlin  see his team go  10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS in his career,  off a home loss. Considering New England is just 0-10 SUATS in their last ten non-division contests  and 1-12 SUATS in their thirteen games as a pup. Im betting Tomlin weaves his bounce back magic once again, and with Trubisky under center  for the Steelers, a new sense of offensive effectiveness may take hole. But whatever the case Im betting the lack of Patriots scoring will doom them here again tonight in this prime time affair. 

NEW ENGLAND is 0-6 ATS  vs. sub par kickoff coverage teams, allowing 24 or more  yards per return this season with the average ppg diff clicking in at -15.7. NEW ENGLAND is 1-8 ATS  passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. this season with a average ppg diff of -11 ppg.NEW ENGLAND is 1-7 ATS  as an underdog this season with a average ppf diff of -9.8 ppg. 

NFL Home teams (PITTSBURGH) - after going under the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record in the second half of the season are 28-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Pittsburgh to cover

The Chiefs have a recent history of not performing optimally off one win exact  going  2-9 ATS  including 1-5 ATS road games . Kansas City is  also 0-9 ATS as a favorite when both teams are coming off an ATS win and is 0-7 ATS  after a win by 14 or more points over the last 2 seasons.

(Packers won last week as dogs and the Chiefs polished off Vegas by DDS as favs.) On  the fliside  the Packers are 13-4 ATS as a dog of 3 or more  points with HC Matt LaFleur on the sidelines. Also  Packers QB QB Jordan Love owns a  3-0 SU/ATS  in his young career hosting a  non-conference opponent.  LaFleur is 8-1 ATS in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points as the coach of GREEN BAY.

Add to that GREEN BAY is 10-1 ATS L/11 in home games vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game in the second half of the season and is s 10-1 ATS  L/11  in home games vs. good passing defenses - allowing 5.7 or less passing yards/att. in the second half of the season , As well as GREEN BAY is 16-4 ATS L/20 in home games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season in the second half of the season . 

.NFL Underdogs or pick (GREEN BAY) - off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% in the second half of the season are 31-9 ATS L/30 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Green Bay to cover

The Tampa Bays Bucs' will be with out three top tier    defenders for this  this game: LB Lavonte David (groin), LB Devin White (foot) and CB Jamel Dean (ankle) making a inept Carolina D, more proficient. Thats not a good omen considering  The Bucs D since they  came offt heir  bye  in Week 6,  rank last in the NFL in EPA/play (0.069) On the flipside the Bucks offense with Bake Mayfield at the helm have proven to be bad bets when favored cashing just 13 of 38 times for a go against 65% conversion rate for his batting backers. With that said, Ill recommend we take the points with a Carolina team that has not pressure on them what so ever, as their play off hopes are already dead in the water. 

)TAMPA BAY is 1-9 ATS L/10  vs. struggling  passing teams averaging 5.2 or less passing yards/att in the second half of the season.

NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CAROLINA) - slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 17 points or less in 4 straight games are 97-47 ATS L/30 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road teams (CAROLINA) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in December games are 87-38 ATS L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL road pups with one or less wins entering their eighth through 12th contest of the season are 63-30-5 (68%) ATS since 2003, covering by an veage  3.6 points per game.

Play on Carolina to cover

Broncos have now won 5 in a row SU after starting the season 1-5 SU and deserve respect here as underdogs this week vs the Texans. Nothing comes easily for the Texans this season, and Im betting if they get the win here this week, it wont come easily. Advantage taking the points. 

HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS in home games in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Home teams (HOUSTON) - excellent passing team (7.3 or more  PYA) against an average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA), after gaining 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games are 11-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

DENVER is 6-3 straight up against HOUSTON since 1992 and won the most recent meeting here in Texas. 

Payton is 13-4 ATS in road games after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better in all games he has coached since 1992.

Play on Denver to cover

The Lions looked bad in their Thanksgiving Day loss to the Packers, and have shown alot of signs of weakness at times this season despite of the consistent accolades they get from the media. From a trends perspectivee the Lions have also failed to cover 5 of their L/6 off a SU chalk loss

   . Meanwhile, the Saints are desperate and need a victory badly to  stay inNFC Playoff race.as well as NFC South contention . I know the Saints have not looked good of late, but they are  New  s 6-0 ATS when coming off back-to-back SUATS defeats and are  7-2 ATS in this series and 4-0 ATS when getting points .  NEW ORLEANS is 15-5 ATS L/20  vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game in the second half of the season

DETROIT is 16-31 ATSas a road favorite since 1992.

NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (DETROIT) - solid team - outgaining their opponents by 50 or more yards/game, after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 45-91 ATS L/10 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on New Orleans Saints to cover

Because Dallas has been top form of late, and also because they are Americas team  they are being over rated here vs the Seattle Seahawks a side that has won 3 of the L/4 meetings vs the Boyz including 4 straight covers. I know Seattle has not performed optimally of late, and lost their last two games both as pups but it must be noted Seahawks  teams are 10-0 ATS L/10 when losing consecutive tilts as underdogs. Carroll is 20-5 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses as the coach of SEATTLE.

Carroll is 20-10 ATS  against NFC East division opponents as the coach of SEATTLE.

 DALLAS is 17-38 ATS L/55 after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games. 

NFL Favorites (DALLAS) - with a good offense - averaging 335 or more total yards/game, after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 12-32 ATS L/5 seasons for. a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Seattle to cover

The Vikings had their 5 game win streak snapped last time out, and now enter this home game vs a side they beat earlier this season, but saw them out stated while putting just 220 yards of offense on the board. The Vikings /Horse Shoe might be starting to loosen, and the proverbial wheels looks ready to fall off the cart. Remember that above mentioned game that the Vikings won saw Bears QB Justin Fields get injured and with him fully healthy again I like the Bears odds of being competitive. Note the Vikings are 0-6 ATS on MNF when coming off a loss.  

Vikings are 3-9 ATS L/12 as division home chalk. Bears are 6-1 ATS L/7 Monday night away games. 

Play on Chicago to cover

Buffalo has had a bit of disappointing season but still rank in the Top 10 on both offense and defense and should be respected here against a foe in a letdown spot after a huge upset win vs KC last time out. NFL home sides  who pulled an  upset vs the defending Super Bowl champion in its last game like the Eagles did , have failed to cash 6 straight times, dating back to the 2020 season. BUFFALO is 14-4 ATS  in road games after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games . McDermott is 12-4 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games as the coach of BUFFALO.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (BUFFALO) - with a sub par passing D - allowing a comp pct of 64% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 58-29 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Buffalo to cash

Joe Burrows is out for the season, and the Bengals as a group Im sure in a letdown mentality and that Im betting plays out here today against a hungry Steelers group that must not be understimated . Note:  Bengals will start veteran backup Jake Browning who will make his first start in just his third game since entering the league in 2019.this is important because QBs  making their first career start vs. Steelers are 1-11 straight-up (SU) in their last 12 games dating back to 1987.

Steelers to cover 

The Jets have dropped three straight games and are turning to journeyman Tim Boyle under center when they face the Dolphins in a Black Friday clash at East Rutherford, N.J. Im betting he will be a blast of fresh air for this stale Jets attack. I know Miami has done well this season, offensively but the Jets D has been mostly solid and Im betting hold up well here in the cold windy conditions today against a team not so ready to play in the cool weather. 

NY JETS are 19-8 ATS L/27 in home games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/att. NY JETS are 29-14 ATS L/43 in home games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season.

NFL Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY JETS) - slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 14 points or less last game are 34-9 L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Jets to cover

I know everyone is in love with the SF 49ers , but Im one of these guys who still believes they are a bit over rated. Note:  Im betting this is a close battle and getting a TD here is viable investment opportunity Seattle HC  Pete Carroll   as a home dog in his NFL career, is  9-2 ATS as a when getting f 4 or more points. SEATTLE is 17-6 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO  L/23 at home.

NFL Road favorites (SAN FRANCISCO) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after a win by 10 or more points are 18-44 ATS L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Seattle to cover

Dallas has a long history of less than stellar Thanks Giving Day outings as is evident by a current  5-7 SU and 1-11 ATS run the  the last 12  seasons. Meanwhile, the inconsistent Commanders seem to bring their best stuff for big games against top tier sides like the Cowboys. Hey I know Dallas has looked explosive of late, but it must be noted that from a historical angle they are in a play against situation.Favorites (DALLAS) - after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are just 11-33 ATS 5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.WASHINGTON is 8-1 ATS  in November games over the last 3 seasons.WASHINGTON is 16-5 ATS  in road games after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs since 1992.WASHINGTON is 35-19 ATS L/54 in road games after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games.DALLAS is 16-38 ATS L/54   after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games.

Play on Washington to cover

This might seem like a crooked number at just over a key TD  offering , but the Lions are by far the better side, and a line closer to -10 should be on the board, making this a viable lay. Note: Thanksgiving Day favorites of more than 7 points qnd  facing  sub .500 squads , are  6-0 SUATS when coming off consecutive SU/ATS win which the Lions are. DETROIT is 6-0 ATS  in home games vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return over the last 3 seasons.DETROIT is 9-2 ATS  vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Motown to cover

The Rams in my humble opinion continue to get to much respect from the pundits and betting public and even the lines-makers. Yes, the Rams are rested, but their overall inconsistencies and HC McVay  poor coaching decisions just make them bad bets .Meanwhile, Seattle is a side, that has taken care of business against these types of teams, and with a top tier coach in Carrol on the side lines deserve respect here as a pickem or slight fav according to my power rankings.  LA RAMS are 0-7 ATS in November games over the last 3 seasons.

NFL team vs the money line (LA RAMS) - an average offensive team (18-23 PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG), after scoring 6 points or less last game are 3-23 L/10 seasons for ago against 89% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Seahawks to cover

 The Bills are surprisingly just 5-5 on the season , and really need to get the wheels moving on their season . Their piss poor efforts are thanks in part to turnovers and a banged up D.  Now n desperation mode  Im and playing at home Im betting they come up big here this week vs a Jets side that is playing their 2nd straight road game after a loss at Las Vegas last time out. It must be noted that the Jets are just  1-8 ATS when coming off a SU favorite loss and 1-6 ATS as a underdog after a chalk rating  in their previous tilt. NY JETS are 1-8 ATS  in road games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons. 

NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (BUFFALO) - off an upset loss as a home favorite against opponent off a road loss are 33-10 ATS L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

NY JETS are 4-17 ATS L/21 in road games versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry in the second half of the season.

Play on Buffalo to cover

The Jags look like weak favs here as they are  just  2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS as division home favorites. I know Tennessee is off two straight losses, but it must be noted that HC Verbal has only failed to cover 1 of his L/8 as an underdog when coming off back-to-back defeats. The public is all over the Jags after the Titans miserable effort last week, but my data base has picked up on a NFL  situational trend that is successful 61% of the time as it focuses on teams of that kind of ugly outing. 

TENNESSEE is 12-3 ATS  vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing  7.5 or less yards per return over the last 3 seasons.

JACKSONVILLE is 1-8 ATS  against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.Pederson is 6-16 ATS  in weeks 10 through 13 in all games he has coached since 1992

NFL  Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (JACKSONVILLE) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 16-47 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

NF Lteam vs the money line (JACKSONVILLE) - an average offensive team (18-23 PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG), after scoring 6 points or less last game are 3-23 L/10 seasons for a go against 89% conversion rate for bettors. ( Tennessee lost 20-6 last week at Tampa Bay)

Play on Titans to cover

Texans are off an emotionally charged 30-27 upset of the Bengals in Cincinnati last week and Im betting will be in a letdown situation this Sunday against a Arizona squad with QB Kyle Murray back under center. Yes, he started a little slow after the long lay off last week, but this guy is dangerous two way threat with his legs and arm and makes this Cards side dangerous in the underdog role . Arizona is 5-1 ATS L/6 vs the AFC South. ARIZONA is 11-3 ATS  as a road underdog of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons.

HOUSTON is 6-20 ATS  in home games after gaining 300 or more passing yards in last game. HOUSTON is 2-10 ATS in home games after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game. 

NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ARIZONA) - with a terrible passing D - allowing a comp pct of 64% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 34-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Arizona to cover

 Baltimore Ravens host the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday night with both sides entering off a loss. Baltimore claimed a 27-24 victory at Cincinnati in Week 2 and now Im betting on an even wider margin of victory in the rematch. CINCINNATI is 3-14 ATS L/17 versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 150  or more rushing yards/game in the second half of the season.

NFL  team (BALTIMORE) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 42-15 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Favorites vs. the money line (BALTIMORE) - good rushing team (125 to 150 RY/game) against a poor rushing team (70-95 RY/game) after 8+ games, after allowing 175 or more rushing yards last game are 35-2 L/40 seasons for a 95% conversion for bettors with a average ppg diff  of +10 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. . 

NFL road teams (CINCINNATI) - with a pathetic defense - allowing 6.0 or more yards/play, after being outgained by 150+ total yards in their previous game are 5-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Baltimore to cover

Denver played a big game last time out upsetting the KC chiefs but this has not been a success-full situation for the Broncos in the past as their  0-9 ATS  record would indicate when coming off an underdog victory. Add to that their  a ugly 0-7 ATS L/7 record  in this series vs the Bills. I know the Broncos are well rested but the Bills are not in a good mood after some  sub par efforts and recent loss to the Bengals last time out, and will be primed to bounce back in a big way in front of their home town fans in prime time action. Buffalo also owns a  7-0 SUATS L/7  as chalk vs a  the AFC West. Buffalo  has struggled to cash for their betting backers of late failing in 3 straight opportunities,, but  when this has happened to them previously the Bills are cash friendly  14-1 ATS L/15  against opposition  coming off a victory and  9-0 ATS  playing as hosts. 

McDermott is 8-1 ATS  vs. poor teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season in the second half of the season as the coach of BUFFALO.

NFL Road underdogs vs. the money line (DENVER) - off an upset win as a home underdog of 7 or more are 21-90 L/30 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at -9.9 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Lay the points with the Buffalo Bills 

Jets D, is obviously their strong point and it will be their stopping units that Im betting stop the Raiders cold . A new interim coach had the Raiders playing all out football last week in a lopsided win, vs a hapless looking Giants team last week.However, I now expect all the teams previous inconsistencies to be on full display this Sunday Previous to last weeks loss the Jets had won 3 straight and according to my power rankings are the superior side here today. 

LAS VEGAS is 7-21 ATS  L/28  in a home game where the total is between 35.5 and 38 points. 

Play on NY Jets to cover

The Jaguars (6-2) put their  five-game winning streak on the line Sunday when they host the 49ers (5-3), a team that has lost three straight following a 5-0 start. However, from a-recent historical perspective this sis a good spot to support the 49ers . Note: HC  Kyle Shanahan’ is 4-0 ATS L/4 on the road off 3 consecutive ATS losses. This Niners team is just to talented to stay down for long and Im betting they rebound today in a big way. 

SAN FRANCISCO is 10-1 ATS off a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons while Jacksonville  is 7-21 ATS L/28 against NFC West division opponents. 

SAN FRANCISCO is 11-3 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

NFL team vs the money line (SAN FRANCISCO) - off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a home favorite, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 22-4 L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN FRANCISCO) - after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 35-13 ATS L/20 seasons for a 73% conversion rate.

NFL Road teams (SAN FRANCISCO) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 29-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on SF 49ers

Joshua Dobbs makes his first start for his new team as the Vikings host the Saints (5-4) on Sunday .  Dobbs was named NFC Offensive Player of the Week after passing for 158 yards and two touchdowns , after replacing the youngster Hall, but now as a starter will have his hands full with a tough Saints D. His relative inexperience as a NFL starter will Im betting hinder him. The Saints lead the NFC South over the Falcons (4-5) and Buccaneers (3-5) and have momentum and motivation on their sides as they enter on a two game win streak. 

NEW ORLEANS is 21-9 ATS L/30   in road games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game.  

Play on the New Orleans Saints to cover

Texans rookie QB C.J. Stroud set a single-game rookie passing record with 470 yards in last week’s come from behind victory vs the Buccaneers. The kid looks like he is the real deal and with the team riding high after that win will ride that momentum into this game against Bengals side that is in a emotional letdowns situation after last weeks all out effort and win vs the Buffalo Bills. HOUSTON is 5-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI in Ohio. 

Houston to cover

Colts can score but their D is very suspect and Im betting even the pedestrian offense of the Pats will be able to take advantage of them. Meanwhile, the one positive New England has exhibited this season is a fairly consistent D. The Patriots have shown some signs of brilliance as was the case when they took out Buffalo by a 29-25 score a few weeks ago and must not be underestimated with a HC like Belichick  whose Patriots teams are 3-0 in international games all-time.

NEW ENGLAND is 21-8 ATS L/29  when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) in the second half of the season. 

Play on New England to cover

The Chargers looked very explosive last week vs the    Chicago Bears  last Sunday Night in prime time action as  QB Herbert completed 31-of- 40 passes for 298 yards, 3 touchdowns, with no interceptions. When the Chargers top tier QB is running hot look out as even what has been on occasion a staunch NYJ defense will have it hands full. , Meanwhile, the flip-side the Jets continue to flounder offensively and Im betting they just wont be able to keep up. 

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NY JETS) - after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games are 21-69 ATS L/10 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on San Diego to cover

This pick here for me is simple. REVENGE .sweet sweet revenge- Buffalo  comes out here this week against Cincinnati \ with a playoff-loss revenge as a rallying cry.  This will be the first time in 30 games that the Bills will be lined as underdogs which is just fine with me .  With the Bengals in an emotional letdown state after last weeks big win vs the 49ers they are vulnerable here to regression, as Its hard to play with that intensity against top tier competition two weeks in a row .  I know the Bills have been in a bit of a funk of late from a ATS perspective but  Buffalo is still a highly talented group that deserves respect . BUFFALO is 8-0 ATS L/8  after 4 or more consecutive losses against the spread .

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BUFFALO) - after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 35-12 ATS L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Buffalo is 5-2 SU/ATS L/7 at Cincinnati. 

Play on the Bills to cover

Both these sides are ranked top 10 on both defense and offense and are alot more closely matched than the linesmakers are suggesting. After a slow start on D to start their season, the Seahawks have allowed a total 50 points in their L/4 overall, (12.5 ppg) and have upward momentum entering this tilt. You have to remember the Seahawks took out a strong Detroit team on the road, and must not be underestimated in their prowess and grit. Meanwhile, Ravens QB Lamar Johnson has failed to cover 21 of 33 NFL home tilts . 

Carroll is 25-15 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of SEATTLE.

Baltimore is 0-5 ATS L/5 off consecutive wins.BALTIMORE is 8-19 ATS  L/27 in home games vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return.BALTIMORE is 4-13 ATS   as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Seattle to cover

Chiefs looked less than motivated   last time out  against Denver and star QB Mahomes actually failed to throw for a TD for the first time  since the 2021 season spanning 29 games.  It was a shocking loss but it must be noted that HC  Reid  is  22-9 SU in  NFL career in tilts  following a SU favorite loss, including   cashing 6 straight times of late a favorite of 7 or less points . Im betting the Chiefs were caught looking ahead to this game and will be very primed to bounce back in a big way vs a side my power rankings suggest they matchup well against. KANSAS CITY is 11-2 ATS l/13  in road games off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more . 

In Miamis only two games vs top tier squads like the Chiefs they were blasted by DDs vs Buffalo and Philadelphia . Rinse and repeat not out of the question here.

MIAMI is 1-8 ATS   in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better over the last 3 seasons.KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 375 or more  yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Play on the Chiefs to cover

Wow were the Lions ever embarrassed last time out by Baltimore. The Lions were media darlings until that game and now they are being dumped like rotten apples by these same media pundits. However the lines-makers are still believers in this Motown crew and in my opinion for good reason. After suffering that humiliating defeat the men from Detroit  now have their feet solidly planted and are ready for immediate redemption against a Vegas side that has a one dimensional offensive aerial attack that cannot run the ball  and also  a inconsistent D. DETROIT is 17-7 ATS  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 3 seasons. DETROIT is 6-0 ATS  in home games after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. Campbell is 6-0 ATS  in home games after allowing 35 points or more last game as the coach of DETROIT.

 DETROIT is 7-0 ATS in home games after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 3 seasons.

With that said,  Im betting this is the kind of team the Lions matchup well against. Here at home the Lions are a money making machine for their backers as is evident by a  13-2-1 ATS since the  2021 campaign.  Monday Night Football sides are 31-18 ATS dating back 43 seasons  when coming off a loss of more than 21 points.   I know we are betting into a crooked line, but the true value of this number should become evident as this game unfolds, as my projections make the number  closer to -10 which gives us value on this offering.

Play on the Detroit Lions to cover 

Denver lost 19-8 at Kansas City two weeks ago and now Im betting they will be competitive again here at home. 

KANSAS CITY is 0-6 ATS  after a win by 14 or more points over the last 2 seasons. (Beat Chargers 31-17 last week)

DENVER is 15-3 ATS L/18 in home games vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season . 

NFL Road favorites (KANSAS CITY) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after a win by 10 or more points are 13-46 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Denver is 2-0 ATS L/2 at home in this series. 

Play on Denver Broncos to cover

Carolina is the only winless team in the NFL so far this season, and now at home and in desperation mode against a banged up Texans squad with 11 players on the injured list which is tied with two other teams for the most in the league the Panthers have an edge. HOUSTON is 6-18 ATS L/24  vs. struggling  teams - outscored by 10+ points per game on the season . 

Carolina is 4-0 ATS L/4 in this series. 

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CAROLINA) - after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread. are 35-11 ATS over the L/10 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Carolina to cover

The Rams out-gained the Steelers last week and still found a way to lose, while their opponents today bounced back from a ugly loss vs the 49ers in prime time to notch a victory vs the Chargers last week. by a 20-17 count. The Rams may not inspire bettors because of their lack of consistency. However, also despite of being a rebuilding mode, still have a hardcore group of talent that plays with grit and must not be underestimated in their ability to be competitive in this spot situation.

 With a top tier QB Stafford at the helm of the offense, and the Rams ability to run the ball consistently behind an array of backs, Im betting they will give the Cowboys all they can handle . 

McVay is 27-14 ATS in road games against conference opponents as the coach of LA RAMS. McVay is 18-9 ATS  in road games in games played on turf as the coach of LA RAMS. McVay is 24-14 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses as the coach of LA RAMS.

Rams are 5-1 ATS L/6 vs NFC sides in away games. 

NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (DALLAS) - after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 6-32 L/10 seasons for a go against 84% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the LA Rams to cover

It does not matter who starts at QB Daniel Jones or Taylor as their attack will center around star RB  Saquon Barkley who is now healthy and  back in the starting lineup. My power rankings suggest the Giants will have success here this week moving the ball, against a NYJ side that is off a bye week. Rest seems to do some teams well, but this Jets franchise looks to be an outliner as they are  1-10 SU including seven straight losses since 2015.  Yes, I know the Jets have played well of late, but it must be noted  that they are 5-15 ATS L/20 in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread .

NY GIANTS are 13-5 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons.

The Giants are 5-1-1 ATS the last seven games in this series. 

Play on the NYG to cover

The Fins are expected to be without their entire left side of the offensive line in  this weeks tilt vs the New England Pats. Last week the Dolphins suffered on offense scoring just one TD , because the starting center was out as well as the left tackle , and things could get hairy again this week vs a fairly staunch Pats D. After upsetting the Buffalo Bills last time out, the Pats now have some confidence and momentum and are viable underdogs here today. 

Belichick is 29-18 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.

NEW ENGLAND is 25-10 ATS L/35 in road games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/att.

Play on New England to cover 

Philadelphia is off a loss last week vs the NYJets but  actually out-gained the Jets by more than 100 yards. Im now betting on a huge bounce back performance by the Eagles against media darlings the Miami Dolphins at home in prime time this Sunday night. I know the Fins offense has been downright explosive, and have looked better than the Eagles attack, but the Eagles D is superior to that of the Dolphins by 56 plus yards a game. Since this tilt features two strong squads , Im betting as is usually the case in big games for the more physical D of the Eagles to be the difference maker. 

NFL Underdogs vs. the money line (MIAMI) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in non-conference games are 7-40 L/10 seasons for a go against  85% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at -8.9 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Play on Philadelphia to cover 

The Broncos enter this game as one of two teams this season without a victory against the spread as is evident by a  0-5-1 record ATS  thanks in part to a  31st ranked  33.3 points per game  D. I know the Broncos held the KC Chiefs to just 14 points last week , but that was in a windy atmosphere that hampered both offenses. Yes, this young Packers team, has had problems scoring of late, but that should change here this week according to my projections. 

Denver is 0-3 SU/ATS at home this season. 

DENVER is 1-10 ATS against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. DENVER is 5-15 ATS  in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.

LaFleur is 11-2 ATS  off a road loss as the coach of GREEN BAY.

NFL Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GREEN BAY) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, in the first half of the season are 35-11 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Home teams vs. the money line (DENVER) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (18-23 PPG), after a loss by 10 or more points are 4-24 L/5 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Green Bay to cover

QB Geno Smith’s just does not have consistent flow and chemistry with the offensive part of his teams attack. and as result his TD production is way down .In last weeks loss to the Bengals  Geno Smith threw for 326 yards but the Seahawks failed to score on four of their trips to the red zone. I know the Seahawks have won 3 of their L/4, but I just dont like the way HC Carrols team plays- there is a lack of what I would call the warrior mentality .  On the flip side The Cardinals have led at halftime in 4 of their 6 games before falling apart, so they must not be under estimated in their ability to be competitive for a full 4 quarters at some point this season.  I also believe from watching some practice reports they they have made some adjustment and have decent replacements for some of their missing offensive cogs.

Take the points with the Cardinals 

I know the Giants have struggled  offensively this season ,but it must be noted that their opponents the  Commanders have a underperforming  defense that has   struggled  along the defensive line as is evident by  ranking 25th in pass rush win rate and 16th in pass rush per PFF. Meanwhile on the flipside, the Giants D is improving  as was evident in a recent game against the SF 49ers  and  should pose problems for Washingtons offensive flow. 

NFL Road teams vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) - average offensive team (295 to 335 YPG) against a team with a sub par defense (335 to 370 YPG), after being outgained by 150+ total yards in their previous game are 1-27 L/10 seasons for a 97% go against conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road teams (WASHINGTON) - with a struggling defense - allowing 6.0 or more yards/play, after being outgained by 150+ total yards in their previous game are 5-22 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on NY Giants to cover

The Browns are off a huge win last week vs the 49ers as underdogs, but are now going to be in an emotional as well as physical letdown scenario after their grueling battle in the trenches. This  makes the Browns vulnerable for a down performance in Indianapolis this Sunday making getting points a viable investment option. 

The Colts lost last time out by DDs to Jacksonville but have proved resilient in the past covering 12 of 14 after a DD SU/ATS defeat. 

INDIANAPOLIS is 32-17 ATS L/49 in home games versus good rushing teams - averaging 130  or more rushing yards/game.

CLEVELAND is 0-5 ATS L/5 coming off a win.

CLEVELAND is 1-8 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasonsCLEVELAND is 2-12 ATS after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. Stefanski is 15-27 ATS  against conference opponents as the coach of CLEVELAND.

NFL Home teams vs. the money line (INDIANAPOLIS) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 33-4 L/10 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Indianapolis Colts to cover

The Cowboys were thoroughly embarrassed last week on national tv in prime time vs the SF 49ers, by a 42-10 count and will now be primed for a big bounce back performance. Believe me when I say pros do not like to be embarrassed and you can bet this talented and egotistical but sometimes in cohesive Cowboys group is now fully focused . Note DALLAS is 12-0 ATS  after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. DALLAS is 6-0 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. DALLAS is 9-0 ATS  after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 season.

 DALLAS is 6-0 ATS  after allowing 30 points or more last game over the last 3 seasonsDALLAS is 6-0 ATS  after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 season.DALLAS is 6-0 ATS  after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game over the last 3 seasons.

The Chargers have looked at average at best this season, with the pass /d, looking very unstable. Note:McCarthy is 7-0 ATS  vs. struggling passing defenses - allowing 260 or more passing yards/game as the coach of DALLAS.

NFL Road favorites vs. the money line (DALLAS) - after allowing 40 points or more last game are 33-4 L/10 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Dallas to cover

The reason for this rocketing off the opening line is because New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones will not play Sunday night against the Buffalo Bills because of a neck injury. However according to my power rankings this kine of line shift is still unjustified and over doen to extent giving us value with the underdog. Veteran backup Tyrod Taylor, who spent three seasons with the Bills, will start for New York and instead of being a hinderance could actually be a breath of fresh air for a stumbling banged up side. The Bills win but by not as much as the linesmakers might anticpate. We have already had sharp money beat back the line from a high of +16. 

NFL .600 or better sides returning from London, coming off a SUATS loss like the Bills, are 0-5 SUATS all-time.  Bills are off a  loss to the Jaguars in London last week. 

NY GIANTS is 4-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO since 1992 in games played in Buffalo. 

NFL Home teams (BUFFALO) - outgaining their opponents by 1.25 or more passing yards/attempt, after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 18-41 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate.

NFL Favorites (BUFFALO) - solid team - outgaining their opponents by 50 or more yards/game, after gaining 375 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games are 15-39 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Giants to cover

These two teams have inefficient offenses and solid defenses and Im expect a very close game, but the desperate Patriots Im betting have the edge on this type of line offering. With owner Kraft ready to fire Bill Belichick Im looking for the old ball coach to craft some magic here today.

Raiders are just 2-11 ATS L/13 vs AFC East. 

NFL Road teams (NEW ENGLAND) - off an embarrassing loss by 21 points or more as a home favorite are 24-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ENGLAND) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, in the first half of the season are 32-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Patriots to cover

SF 49ers QB Brock Purdy are getting alot of headlines , especially after destroying the Dallas Cowboys on national TV this past Sunday. However, Im betting Purdy will be in a regressionary mode this week after that explosion vs the Cowboys as he goes against NO .1 defense in the NFL ( Cleveland Browns) that has the physicality to deal with the 49ers . With that said Im betting on a much closer game than the lines-makers public line is estimating. 

CLEVELAND is 9-1 ATS L/10 against teams who commit 0.75 or less turnovers/game on the season.

Cleveland 3-0 SU/ATS L/3 at home in this series dating back to 1992.

NFL Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after a win by 10 or more points are 8-31 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Browns to cover

 .After a two week stint in the Uk Im betting the Jags are slow out of the gate as they get acclimated to home cooking again. Home sweet home, is not so sweet for the Jaguars when  Trevor Lawrence is the QB as is evident by a  1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS  record as a home favorite . On the flip-side with under rated  QB Gardner Minshew back behind center, for the Colts Im expecting them to be ready to continue to heat up on offense.   Minshew completed 19 of 23 passes for 171 yards along with recording a positive  passer rating of 112.1 in his only start this season and is more than capable of lighting up this inconsistent Jags secondary. Jacksonville  is just 1-15 ATS as a favorite if it was an underdog in its previous game (which they were). 

Play on Indy Colts to cover 

Carolina is off a crap performance last time out in a 42-24 loss to the Lions, but have proven resilient in the past . CAROLINA is 11-2 ATS L/13 after allowing 40 points or more last game . I know Miami has proven themselves to be dynamic on offense so far this season, but will now play without injured star RB Devon Achane , who had 7 TDS in his first 4 games. I also know QB Bryce Young has not looked good out of the gate this season, but the kid is still learning the ropes and is more than capable of a big game. 

NFL Favorites (MIAMI) - with an excellent offense - averaging 360 or more total yards/game, after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 8-30 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Carolina to cover

 Cincinnati looked good against the Arizona Cardinals last time out and are gaining momentum entering this tilt against the visiting  Seahawks.  Trends also back the the  Bengals as they  own a  7-0 ATS record  when coming off a SU away  chalk victory and are , 12-1 ATS  in tilts  when both teams are coming off a win, Meanwhile the Seahawks are just  1-10 ATS in games  after allowing 7 or fewer points  last time out . CINCINNATI is 12-1 ATS  after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons. With QB Joe Burrow looking close to 100%   after a  right calf strain, Im betting the Bengal's are the right side. Burrow looked mobile and completed  36 of 46 passes for 317 yards and three touchdowns with one interception.

I know Seattle has really been tough on opponents run against allowing just 3.18 ypc, and the Bengals have struggled running the ball but CINCINNATI is 15-4 ATS  after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 4 straight games . 

 CINCINNATI is 15-3 ATS  vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 3 seasons.CNCINNATI is 6-0 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 350 or more yards/game over the last 2 seasons.CINCINNATI is 13-4 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Cincinnati to cover

Houston (2-3) managed just one touchdown and settled for four field goals in a 21-19 road loss to Atlanta in Week 5 and I truly did not like the way they looked in that tilt especially when trying to finish drives. Meanwhile, the Saints had season highs of 42 rushes and 136 yards on the ground against New England Pats and won 34-0. That type of game plan Im sure is on the agenda again and according to my power rankings gives the visitor a significant edge on what is is essentially a pickem line. 

NEW ORLEANS is 21-8 ATS L/29 in road games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game.. NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS  in road games after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game which was the case last time out. 

NFL Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ORLEANS) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, in the first half of the season are 32-9. ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the New Orleans Saints to win 

The pundits and media love how well RB Christian  Mcaffery has played so far for the 49ers. But it must be noted that the Cowboys are 9-2 (.818) vs top 10 run offenses since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .433. Also the Cowboys defense has allowed scores on 5% of opponent drives in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 34%. So as this game goes on Im betting on the Cowboys to be hard to score on in what Im aslo betting will be a very competitive affair with the points being golden in the end. 

DALLAS is 9-1 ATS  in October games over the last 3 seasons. DALLAS is 16-3 ATS  in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 3-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 90% conversion rate for bettors. McCarthy is 13-3 ATS  vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game in all games he has coached since 1992

NFL Home teams (SAN FRANCISCO) - out-gaining their opponents by 1.75 or more passing yards/attempt, after gaining 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games are 8-30 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Cowboys are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in San Francisco.

The Eagles are being over rated here today against the Rams. In the Phillies first game of the season, they were out gained handily by the Patriots and still found a way to win, and three of their victories were all one score decisions, including last weeks OT winner. Meanwhile, on the flipside the Rams have registered better offensive and defensive numbers than the Eagles, to this point in the campaign and must be respected here getting points on their own home field. 

PHILADELPHIA is 0-6 ATS  after scoring 25 points or more in 3 straight games over the last 3 seasons.The Eagles have lost 16 of their 25 SU vs NFC West. 

LA RAMS are 15-4 ATS L/19 in home games versus good rushing defenses - allowing 3.5 or less rushing yards/carry .

NFL Favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - solid team - out-gaining their opponents by 50 or more yards/game, after gaining 375 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games are 12-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on LA Rams to cover

We have an early season, QB alert on board as the Houston Texans’ C.J. Stroud is playing a top tier brand of football under center  Entering this game he is off a  280 yard and two touchdown performance last week in a  30-6 thumping  of the  Pittsburgh Steelers . It must be noted that he is the  first QB in league history to average 300 passing yards  in the first tilts of the campaign and has given up no interceptions so far . The same cannot be said, about Atlanta QB Desmond Ridder who has seen his team score just 6 and 7 points in their last two trips to the gridiron including last weeks London England loss to the Jags. Now coming off a trip across the pond Im betting the Falcons will be a bit jet lagged and for the offense to continue to plummet. 

Atlanta is 0-7 ATS L/7 non division games. 

NFL Home favorites (ATLANTA) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing 1 or less turnovers/game, after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 5-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Home favorites (ATLANTA) - after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game are 4-24 ATS L/10 seasons for ago against 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Texans to cover

Giants have been embarrassed a couple times already this season, and are off a ugly home loss on Monday night vs Seattle. It must be noted however, that the Gmen are 6-0 ATS L/6 after a MNF battle. With Miami now hot with a reality blow last week to their egos vs the Bills, Im betting it will be  hard for the Fins to get motivated and up off the matt vs a side that hardly brings respect  with them.

NY GIANTS are 13-4 ATS off a home blowout loss by 21 points or more since 1992.

MIAMI is 1-9 ATS in October games over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Road underdogs of 10.5 or more points (NY GIANTS) - after 2 or more consecutive losses, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 22-2 ATS L/10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors. 

Take the points with the Giants to cover

I know the Panthers have not won this season,  but they  held two of their four opponents  to season-low yardage and must not be underestimated in this ability to be competitive vs the Lions today. Note: Reich is 15-3 ATS  L/18 in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 350  or more yards/game in all games he has coached in his career. 

Carolina is 16-8 ATS L/24  as underdogs against the NFC North . 

Detroit is 1-6 ATS L/7 as non division home favs of 3 points or more. 

Carolina is 4-1 ATS L/5 in this series.

NFL home favorites (DETROIT) - outgaining their opponents by 1.75 or more passing yards/attempt, after gaining 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games are 8-30 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Carolina to cover

After last weeks embarrassing loss to the Texans Im betting on a huge rebound here today against the Ravens  by a 30-6 count. Pros dont like to be embarrassed and believe or not the culture of grit still remains in the Steel City. PITTSBURGH is 10-2 ATS  in home games off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more since 1992. PITTSBURGH is 6-0 ATS in home games after allowing 30 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons.

The last 4 meetings in this series has seen the Steelers win 3 of those games with all of the tilts being low scoring physical grinders with each game decided by 3 points or less . Im betting nothing changes today. 

BALTIMORE is 3-11 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PITTSBURGH) - slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 14 points or less last game are 33-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (BALTIMORE) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after a win by 10 or more points are 8-30 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

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 Washingtons issues right now are on defense where they have allowed 33, 37, 34 points in their L/3 games. Also the Commanders are now in an emotional  letdown spot after playing all out football against the Eagles last time out  before eventually losing in OT. I know the bad news Bears are really reeling, but after a 0-4 start will desperate for a win and in desperation mode have an edge vs a vulnerable Commanders side . 

WASHINGTON is 16-32 ATS  as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

NFL Home favorites (WASHINGTON) - off a road loss, in the first half of the season are 25-61 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Road teams (CHICAGO) - after allowing 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games against opponent after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 55-24 ATS L/30 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

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The Giants need a won here desperately as after tonight's game they go against, Dolphins and Bills in successive weeks. I know NYG has a some issues with key 
RB Barkely out , but Im betting QB Daniels and company can slice and dice a weak Seattle secondary, and a /defensive group that ranks 27th in EPA per play and 26th in Success Rate. Gmen are 7-1 ATS when coming off a loss and 12-2 ATS when coming off a Thursday prime prime time  tilt. 

NY GIANTS are 11-3 ATS vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons. NY GIANTS are 18-5 ATS L/23 after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games.

Carroll is 15-25 ATS  as a road favorite of 7 points or less as the coach of SEATTLE

NFL Underdogs or pick (NY GIANTS) - terrible passing team (5.3 or less PY/Att.) against a horrible passing defense (7.3 or more  PY/Att.), after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 23-4 L/40 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NY GIANTS) - after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 39-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

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Raiders QB Garoppolo may not start this week, but one thing is for sure he is not performing optimally right now and if hes replaced I dont believe the it will be a difference maker. Despite of this QB situation with Vegas, I do believe they matchup well here overall vs a San Diego Chargers side that played hard last week in Minnesota for their first win of the season, and is now in an emotional letdown situation . Chargers QB Herbert finished 40-of-47 for a career-high 405 yards and three touchdowns against the Vikings, but now regression must be expected. 

Bottom line : Considering the QB situation for Vegas I expect star RB Jacobs  who rushed for a league-leading 1,653 yards and scored 12 touchdowns last season, averaging 4.9 yards a carry to be key here in keeping the Raiders on the edge of victory today. It must be noted that the Chargers have looked sub par on  on defense this season,   ranking 31st in the NFL in total defense (450.7 ypg allowed) and 32nd in passing defense (337.0 ypg allowed). So even if Hoyer or the rookie Aidan O'Connell starts the Chargers sub par secondary should seal their fate with Jacobs setting up the pass with his legs. 

A CHARGERS are 14-28 ATS (L/42  in home games after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game.

NFL Home teams (LA CHARGERS) - with an incredible offense - averaging 385 or more total yards/game, after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games are 6-26 L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

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Philadelphia got blasted last season in embarrassing fashion in a  Monday Night home loss as double-digit favs  to the Commanders last season and now want revenge. However, like Mick Jagger of the iconic Rolling stones  likes to say ' you don't always get what you want. With that said, Im betting on another gritty performance from a never say die group of commodores in what will be a much closer game the the lines-makers are estimating. Washington HC Rivera is 21-9 ATS L/30 vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game in all games he has coached. 

NFL team (WASHINGTON) - off a home loss, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 47-19 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

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Bengals are on short rest after a grinding and physical battle on Monday night  vs the Rams, and are not 100% at the quarter back position with Joe Burrows playing banged up with a bad ankle. Here against a very strong defensive Titans front the Bengals Im betting have a hard time being consistent offensively. Advantage Titans. 

TENNESSEE is 11-3 ATS  vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing  7.5 or less yards per return over the last 3 seasons. TENNESSEE is 8-1 ATS  in October games over the last 3 seasons.TENNESSEE is 16-5 ATS   in home games after scoring 9 points or less last game. 

NFL Road teams vs. the money line (CINCINNATI) - in a game involving two poor rushing teams (70-95 RY/game), after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 6-21 L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

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Carolina despite of a top tier offense, are now in desperation mode as they search for their first victory of the season .  Their issues have come mostly because of turnovers , but that should rectify itself as the season progresses. Luckily for the Vikes they take on a 0-3 Carolina side that is less talented and even more inept as is evident by -9 ppg diff on the season. Im betting on  quarterback Kirk Cousins, who enters Week 4 with a league-leading 1,075 passing yards to really light things up here this Sunday as the Vikings come away with a convincing victory. 

CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS n home games vs. sub par punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return over the last 3 seasons.CAROLINA is 3-12 ATS  off 1 or more straight overs over the last 3 seasons.

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