The Colts offense is less than spectacular and that corresponds to  QB Gardner Minshew’s record of 2-10 SU in his L/12 trips to the gridiron. I know the Indy thanks  to some strong D and  fine FG kicking found a way past the Ravens last week for their 2nd straight win , but  it must be noted that the Colts despite of their decent run have been outgained in each of their games this season. . It must also be noted that the Colts are  0-8-1 ATS at home when coming off consecutive SUATS victories, .  Add to that Sean McVay is 5-0 ATS when coming off a loss in his career, against opposition coming off a SU underdog victory. I like the Rams coaching their overall team chemistry especially Stafford at QB  and feel strongly they come out of here with a cover this Sunday. 

NFL Road teams (LA RAMS) - after playing their last game on the road, in the first month of the season are 34-12 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the LA Rams to cover

Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence,   has just one touchdown pass in the last two games and its obvious this team is in a funk, and according to my power rankings fade material in this current form vs a solid Falcons D. Here in a game against and Atlanta side built to run the ball, Im betting a grinding clock will keep the Jags out of tempo on offense and cause more problems for them. What Im saying is this is not a good matchup for the Jags. Note:JACKSONVILLE is 5-16 ATS  against NFC South division opponents since 1992 and is 1-9 ATS  in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Atlanta owns a  2-0 ATS record  in the international series and have covered their L/ 6 ATS  vs the Jags. 

Play on Atlanta to cover

The Bengals QB Joe  Burrow  is not 100% after he aggravated his right calf strain in Sunday's 27-24 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. His calf has not been 100% since training camp started. Burrow did not practice Thursday  and was expected to practice Monday morning but even if he plays will not be as mobile as he needs to be against aggressive groups of Rams. Meanwhile, Rams star QB Stafford recently  passed Peyton Manning for the third-most passing yards by a player in his first 200 regular-season games (52,723 yards in 193 games). Rams won their first game of the season, but lost to their nemesis last week the  Niners. Stafford completed 34 of 55 passes for 307 yards and is primed to come back strong this week vs what has looked like a unstable Bengals secondary so far this season. I know the Bengals are desperate for a win, but without a healthy Burrows at the helm of the offense that task will not be an easy one. NFL Home favorites (CINCINNATI) - after 1 or more consecutive losses, in the first half of the season are 34-83 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Rams to cover

Bears are not a respected team, and after 12 straight losses are a side that is not getting much respect from the linesmakers against what is obviously a far superior side the KC Chiefs. The Bears are not expected to be competitive this week, but I think few are considering that the Chiefs may not be very motivated while the opposite will hold true for a Bears group playing loose and with nothing to lose. With that said Im willing to take the DD point spread in complete contrarian action. KANSAS CITY is 0-8 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons

NFL Road teams (CHICAGO) - after playing their last game on the road, in the first month of the season are 32-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Bears have covered 3 of their L/4 visits to KC. 

Play on the Chicago Bears to cover

Im not buying in on a Seattle resurgence,  and this week against Carolina Im betting on an emotional letdown scenario to hamper the home side. Last week the Seahawks, grabbed a overtime victory against the  Detroit Lions in a heart pumping affair.  Meanwhile,  the Panthers were edged out by a FG  at  home against  the New Orleans Saints in prime time  Monday night action. I myself see major upward momentum and confidence building in Carolina, Note:  Seahawks are 0-4 ATS  L4  vs the NFC South,  

Also I know Carolina rookie quarterback Bryce Young, the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL draft in April, is banged up and  didn't participate in Wednesday's walk-through practice because of an ankle injury and is questionable to play against the Seahawks (1-1) But Veteran Andy Dalton is a more than capable starter for the Panthers and could easily make the Panthers offense more cohesive.

SEATTLE is 1-8 ATS  after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Home favorites (SEATTLE) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 24 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 11-39 ATS since 1983 for a 78% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Carolina Panthers to cover

Miami has started their season at 2-0 while their opponents the Denver Broncos  have lost their first two games but by a combined 3 points. Denver has consistently been competitive but just cant get over the hump for a W, but when getting points must respected from. a ATS perspective. Denver has lost 9 straight games where it had the lead at half time. Quote "As we've learned the past few years, almost every game is one score -- seven points, three points," Broncos center Lloyd Cushenberry III said.  Quote "We need to finish those games 'cause we've lost too many over the past four years that I've been here." end quote. Today Im betting new HC Sean Payton finds a way to stay in this game here in Miami against a Fins side, that is coming home after two hard fought affairs, vs the Chargers and Patriots and could easily be in a emotional letdown situation this week. Its not an easy proposition to keep your energy levels up as a team for three straight games in the ultra physical NFL. Note: HC Payton  24-6-2 ATS in his NFL career against sides  coming off a victory.

MIAMI is 47-22 ATS (+22.8 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.

Play on Denver Broncos to cover

Houston has owned the Jags in previous  meetings here in Jacksonville Florida winning   15 of their L/18 visits here  SU and have cashed  5 of their L/6  SU/ATS as a underdog in this series overall.  I know  Houston has lost both their games so far this season, but they did win the stats war in both games and must not be underestimated in their ability to get the job done here again. I know The Jags  smashed the host Texans 31-3 in Week 17 of last season to end a nine-game losing streak against Houston, but now with big time revenge on board and the desperation of needing a victory Im betting on a big time effort from the visitors. 

Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence has never won at home as a NFL favorite going 0-4 ATS while losing 3 of 4 SU. It must also be noted that  Jacksonville is  1-14 ATS as a favorite if they  were a underdog in their last game. JACKSONVILLE is 22-38 ATS L/60 after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better.

NFL Home favorites (JACKSONVILLE) - after 1 or more consecutive losses, in the first half of the season are 34-83 ATS L/5 seasons for a  go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Texans to cover 

I like the Chargers here this week despite of some early season ugly defensive performances especially in the secondary. . As result of their defensive issues they are 0-2 with both losses coming via FG or less margin of defeat,    This a very good Chargers team and their record is not indicative their true talents   On the flipside, Ive watched the Vikings and they are a team that is set for major regression, both on offense and defense, and thanks to a -6 turnover margin are side that does not deserve respect here even at home, especially against an extremely hungry team that is much deeper in my opinion. 

NFL Road teams (LA CHARGERS) - after playing their last game on the road, in the first month of the season are 32-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Road underdogs or pick (LA CHARGERS) - excellent passing team from last season - averaged 275 or more passing yards/game, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 24-5 ATS since 1983 for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Chargers to cover

Oddsmakers aren’t giving the Giants much of a chance this week. However, my projections estimate this line is bloated and gives us value with the road underdog. The The Giants proved their offense can be explosive as was evident in a  31 points  second half output against the Cardinals in Week 2 for a come from behind victory and must be underestimated in their ability to some damage here this week in San Francisco. I know the Gmens top tier  RB Saquon Barkley is banged up and may not play, but even then my projections say this is just to much lumber for the 49ers to lay. Advantage Giants.

NY GIANTS are 22-9 ATS L/31 in road games after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game .NY GIANTS are 18-4 ATS  L/22 after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games.

NFL Road teams (NY GIANTS) - after playing their last game on the road, in the first month of the season are 32-9 ATS L/5 seasons for  a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road teams (NY GIANTS) - after playing their last game on the road, in September games are 26-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on NY Giants to cover

Mike Tomlin's team was completely embarrassed last week vs the 49ers by a 30-7 count. Ugly to say the least. Pros dont like to be embarrassed and Im betting the Steelers as a group bounce back here in a big way. It must be noted that Tomlin is  8-1 SU  when his side needs to even up their record. Tomlin is also   14-4-4 ATS as a home dog in his career as Steelers coach. . I know Cleveland had a big victory last week vs Cincinnati , but it the recent past this has not been a good omen for this group as they are  1-9 ATS L/10 when coming off a SUATS victory.  

CLEVELAND is 2-13 ATS L/15 in road games off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival .

NFL Underdogs or pick (PITTSBURGH) - off a home loss by 10 or more points, in the first two weeks of the season are 24-4 ATS L/10 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. 

Pittsburgh ahs won and covered the L/2 meetings at home between these sides.PITTSBURGH is 28-3 straight up against CLEVELAND since 1992 in Pittsburgh. 

Play on Pittsburgh Steelers to cover

There might have been to much hype surrounding the Bears in game 1 of the season against a Green Bay Packers side that has now beaten them in 9 straight and 24 of the L/27 meetings. Yes, the Bears looked bad in their first game of the season, but I still believe they will be an improved team, despite not necessarily being a play off contender. Here today against the Bucs Im betting they give their backers something to feel good about, as QB  Fields and new acquisition DJ Moore should up their games, after that previous embarrassing effort.  Meanwhile, their opposition, the Bucs might even be a worse of than the bad news Bears, as in game 1 of the season the offense averaged just 3.6 yards per play while the defense allowed 5.9 YPP. The Bucs still managed to win because of a 3-0 turnover margin, but they looked horrendous in the victory, and are being over rated while their opponents the Bears todays  opponent might be under rated in this matchup. Whatever, the case I like the points here and Im recommending we go on the take the lesser of two evils. 

TAMPA BAY is 1-8 ATS  after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons.

NFL Road teams (CHICAGO) - off a home loss by 10 or more points, in the first two weeks of the season are 22-2 ATS L/10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home favorites (TAMPA BAY) - team that had a losing record last season, in conference games are 99-171 since 1983 for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Chicago Bears to cover

Bengals star QB is off a ugly game  week 1 performance vs Cleveland, where he registered a unfamiliar 52.2 passer rating. You can now bet the top gun quarterback will be primed for a big bounce back this week against the Baltimore Ravens.  Bengals QB Burrow is 13-1 SUATS in his NFL career in games against opposition coming off a SU/ATS win like the Ravens.CINCINNATI is 6-0 ATS  after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game over the last 3 seasons.CINCINNATI is 3-0 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons at home.  Rinse and repeat. 

Play on Cincinnati to cover

Colts QB Richardson was  overall  impressive in his first NFL start. He   ran for a score but also completed a 39-yard touchdown pass to Michael Pittman Jr. He passed for 223 yards, completed 24 of 37 attempts and looks to be very poised under center and must be respected here in the underdog role. Meanwhile, his QB  opponent Stroud, is a viable young arm, but Richardson looks more polished at this point and from my perspective the Colts are the overall deeper , healthier  and more talented side and I wont be surprised if they win this game straight up. Stroud did not get a TD in first outing and the sledding promises to be less than easy in this tilt. 

NFL Home teams vs. the money line (HOUSTON) - sub par team from last season - outgained by their opponents by 0.75 or more yards/play are 5-26 L/10 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate.

NFL Road teams (INDIANAPOLIS) - off a home loss by 10 or more points, in the first two weeks of the season are 22-2 ATS L/10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate.

INDIANAPOLIS is 15-6 straight up against HOUSTON since 1992 in Houston and won their last visit here.

Play on Indianapolis to cover

Philadelphia did not look good against New England  this past Sunday, but found a way to win even tough they were out yarded by 131 yards. Meanwhile, the Vikings lost despite of out gaining their opponent, the Tampa bay Bucs by 127 yards. It must ber noted that  Minnesota's' QB Kirk Cousins is 29-9  ATS when his team were defeated the previous week. I know these teams showed diff results on the scoreboard, but I like the way the Vikes lineup here vs a injury riddled Eagles lineup , and they will get my support getting points. Philadelphia is n 0-6 ATS in  their L/6 home openers, 

NFL Home favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 18-45 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Minnesota to cover

The Rams had a bad season last year, but that was in part due to key injuries including top gun QB M Stafford who is now healthy. Im now betting on a rebound from the Rams, and on the flipside for QB Geno Smith and company to regress after a better than expected season in 2022. Note: The Rams have cashed 5 of their L/6 season openers, while the Seahawks have failed to cover 7 of their L/8 as division home favs of 3 points or more. Rams are also 7-3 ATS L/10 as division road dogs. 

. LA RAMS is 4-0 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons and have covered their L/2 trips to Seattle.

Play on Rams to cover

Las Vegas’ key offseason move came under center as they replaced Derek Carr with Jimmy Garoppolo and if he stays healthy he will pay dividends for this Raiders franchise.The Las Vegas Raiders have won their last six matchups with the Denver Broncos and Im betting they wont lose this game easily making getting points a viable investment option. It must also be noted that Denver has failed to cover 6 straight as division home favs. I know there is hype behind the Broncos but until they prove themselves with actual wins instead of just being competitive they are fade material. 

LAS VEGAS is 41-24 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992

NFL Home favorites (DENVER) - poor team from last season - outscored by opponents by 4 or more points/game, versus division opponents are 16-43 ATS. since 1983 for a go against conversion rate of 73% for bettors.

Play on the Raiders to cover

New England’s offense has had an offseason revamp following the hiring of new offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien and Im betting they will be more aggressive offensively right out of the gate. The type of football that QB Mac Jones, thrived on in his days with Alabama will be implemented here with key receivers  getting  his attention, including new acquisition JuJu Smith-Schuster. The Patriots have won four of the past five regular-season meetings and most not be underestimated here today at home. Defensively Im betting on  LB Matt Judon to wreak havoc on the Eagles in an all out physical battle that favors the Pats. 

Eagles 2-6 ATS in their last eight non-division away games. 

NEW ENGLAND is 26-13 ATS as a home underdog since 1992. New England is 12-3 SU L/15 home season openers under Bill Belichick .

The loser of the previous Super Bowl  if they are away in Game One of the campaign are just 2-15 ATS dating back 33 seasons.

Play on New England Pats to cover

The Carolina Panthers are set to start the 2023 season with a rookie quarterback. Bryce Young, but he is a quality player who learns quickly and must not be under estimated in his ability to get out of the gate quickly. Meanwhile, Second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder goes for Atlanta. Ridder played  four games and was sacked nine times. In those four games, he only passed for 708 yards and can hardly looked upon as a strong candidate to have a fluid game. My assessment and projections estimate a close game that could easily be decided by FG which gives us an edge with the underdog.

Favorites (ATLANTA) - in the first month of the season, non-playoff team from prior season who won their last 2 games are 6-29 L/10 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate. 

Carolina has covered thier last 2 visits to Atlanta. 

Carolina to cover

KC has not lost a season opener since 2014 and Im betting they nab a victory again against what many believe is a top tier Lions squad. Truth is the Lions still have not proved anything and here against a top tier squad could find the sledding tough. I know Kelce may not play Thursday night and  Jones who is holding out for a new contract may also not be there, but this Chiefs team is deep and deserves respect as less than TD home fav on opening night. Note: Motowns D allowed 6.2 yard per play last year) 

KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

KC HC Andy Reid is  6-0 SUATS career record on Thursdays against non-division opposition with every win coming  by double-digits.

Play on KC Chiefs to win /cover

The Chiefs are being under valued here by the linesmakers and some of the betting pundits. Phillies passing D while ranked No.1 in the league, still remains their weakest link against top tier pocket passers like Mahomes, and Im betting  that will be the difference maker in the end. Both  drop back passers Dak Prescott and Gared Goff both put up big numbers on the Eagles this season, and Mahomes will also thrive.  On the flip-side Eagles QB Jalen  Hurts is not 100% with a shoulder issue, and despite having a solid running game to aid him, that wont be entirely enough to produce the offense needed to beat an experienced super bowl QB  and league MVP like Mahomes. 

Mahomes is 9-1 ATS as a underdog in his NFL career, as well as 19-3 SU in non conference games and 4-0 SU vs NFC East opposition. 

Reid is 13-4 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 or more rushing yards/game in the second half of the season as the coach of KANSAS CITY.

Play on Kansas City to cover

I know alot has been made of how the Bengals have won 3 straight meetings vs the Chiefs. But now Im betting on a huge redemption minded performance from the KC here in Sundays play off game. Note:  Chiefs HC Andy Reid’  in games with triple revenge-exact is 7-1 ATS at home, including 5-0 ATS at home off a win. I know superstar quarterback Mahomes has  suffered a high-ankle sprain in last week’s 27-20 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, but he practiced this week without a hitch and Im betting his injury is being exaggerated.

A key factor here today for Burrows and company is a banged up offensive line, and could be without three starting offensive linemen . All and all Im betting home field advantage and Mahomes inexplicable need to get a win here will be the difference maker.

Reid is 14-1 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better as the coach of KANSAS CITY.

NFL Road teams vs. the money line (CINCINNATI) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a top-level team (75% or better ) playing a team with a winning record are 5-25 L/10 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on KC to cover 

These sides the San Francisco 49ers and the Philadelphia Eagles are  very evenly, matched  but Im betting the difference maker will be the 49ers Niners’  PK Robbie Gould, who has made all 67 of his career playoff kicks, including 38  consecutive extra-point attempts including  29 FGs for a perfect 100% conversion rate. Add in the Niners  protracted play off experience, and home field advantage is in my betting mind negated. 

SAN FRANCISCO is 7-0 ATS  vs. poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing 24 or more  yards per return in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. SAN FRANCISCO is 12-2 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more  yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 ATS  vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. SAN FRANCISCO is 8-1 ATS  versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6 or more yards/play in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Shanahan is 11-1 ATS  in January games as the coach of SAN FRANCISCO.

NFL Favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 9-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against  79% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games are 5-25 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on 49ers to cover 

 Niners rookie QB Brock Purdy has won his first six starts and deserves respect here in a place where the 49ers have dominated opponents. The 49ers at Levi’s Stadium,  have victories in  13 of their last 14 and covered 12 of those games. With an 11 game current overall win streak that highlights their effectiveness Im betting the hosts  get the job done again behind a top tier D, and a running back in  RB Christian McCaffrey who matches up well  against the Cowboys strong D. I know DakPrescott looked good against the horrid D, of the Bucs lat week, but this Sunday night Im betting his life will be made miserable by aggressive pass rushing group .SAN FRANCISCO is 7-1 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season this season.SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 ATS  in home games after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game over the last 2 seasons.

Play on SF 49ers to cover 

Cincinnati is just 1-6 In ITS  against fellow playoff sides  this season and have lost the stats battles in 3 straight games by an average o 139 ypg. I don't care how many good ATS trends support the Bengals taking points it just not justify their current play and in my betting opinion are over rated at less than a TD dogs.  Note: The Bengals  banged up offensive line is down to just tow reg starters. Look for Burrows to spend a great deal of time scrambling around today and will land  on his back more than once. On the flip side Buffalos Josh allan after suffering with a sore wrist looks to be back on form and will primed for a big day. 

 McDermott is 11-1 ATS  after a win by 3 or less points as the coach of BUFFALO.

NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CINCINNATI) - poor rushing team (70-95 RY/game) against a team with an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/game), after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 62-108 L/29 seasons for a go against 64% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road teams vs. the money line (CINCINNATI) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a top-level team (75%  or better ) playing a team with a winning record are 25-4 L/10 seasons for a 86% conversion rate.

Play on Buffalo to cover 

The Giants are being under rated in this tilt considering they  11-2 ATS underdog with HC  Brian Daboll at the helm.  Also it must be noted that the Gmen were involved in  14 one-score tilts this season  cashing at a  12-1-1 ATS rate proving how highly competitive they were behind a never say die attitude and top tier chemistry.  I know the Giants lost both times to the Eagles this season, but now in double revenge the Giants are the right side at this line  offering. 

NY GIANTS are 7-1 ATS  vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season this season.

PHILADELPHIA is 15-31 ATS  in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PHILADELPHIA) - after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 3 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 8-37 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Giants to cover

The Jaguars were trailing 27-0 before making. a miraculous comeback last time out,vs the Chargers . However, now Im betting the Jags will be in a huge  a huge emotional letdown spot against a rested Kansas City side that will be ready to put the pedal to the metal and not let  off the accelerator til the very end.KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 or more  rushing yards/carry in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.JACKSONVILLE is 1-8 ATS  in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons. Note:

HC Reid’s 19 career postseason victories have been by double-digit margins. Rinse and repeat in play this week vs the Jags.

Play on the Chiefs to cover 

In Tom Brady Brady we trust . The GOAT  is a 19-time division champion and is 7-0 SU in his career versus  the  Dallas Cowboys .  I will  happily take the points here with one of the great all time QBs in  NFL history in a key play off game. Hey don't get me wrong Dak Prescott is a excellent QB as well but he has a propensity for turning the ball over via interceptions. 

DALLAS is 5-15 ATS in road games in January games since 1992. 

Cowboys are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games and are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games.Cowboys are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on a natural surface. Cowboys are 0-3-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Buccaneers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games.Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings

NFL Favorites (DALLAS) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (18-23 PPG), after a loss by 10 or more points are 9-33 ATS L/10 seasons for go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tampa Bay to cover

Baltimore ranks third in scoring defense (18.5 points allowed per game) and tied for ninth in total defense (324.3 yards allowed per game). I know alot of focus is on whether Ravens QB Lamar Jackson will play, but Im betting the difference maker here comes via the Ravens ability to play physical ball against a team that has played every game like its their last. Which for me is not a good omen going into the play offs, as exhaustion and regression could easily rare their ugly heads at the worst possible time. Remember Baltimore beat Cincinnati in week 5 and in my opinion valid underdogs in this tilt. 

BALTIMORE is 31-15 ATS l/36 in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or better, ) Harbaugh is 6-0 ATS  in road games after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse as the coach of BALTIMORE.

CINCINNATI is 3-13 ATS  versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 150  or more rushing yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992.

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CINCINNATI) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 9-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion run for bettors.

Play on Baltimore to cover 

 The Bills’   this past season had some problems with the  Dolphins  Closing as 4.5-point favorites in the first meeting, they were defeated by a 21-19. than as  7-point chalk the second time round and barely squeezed   by in that matchup be a 32-29 score. Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here as I have this tilt projected at less than a TD for Buffalo thus giving us value with an underdog take with the Fins.Underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Bills are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Play on the Dolphins to cover 

  The 49ers opened the season 3-4 and trailed the Seahawks in the division race before running off 10 consecutive victories. The 49ers look like the right side, but after playing very hard physical ball for an extended period of time  they could easily hit a wall regress at the worst possible time. Something Im betting on here in this play off tilt. 

NFL Road underdogs or pick (SEATTLE) - off a win against a division rival, in January games are 28-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate.

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 9-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate. 

Play on Seattle to cover

Despite of Green Bays big win vs Minnesota last week all was not perfect as they were out yarded in that tilt by a  346-315 deficit and have lost the stats battles in 6 of their L/7, so not all is good in Cheesville. Meanwhile, Detroit is 9-0 ATS L/9 division tilts, and need a win to make the play offs and some added luck of Seattle losing. The Lions will be motivated and their recent history against division tilts has me on the take this Sunday. 

DETROIT is 9-2 ATS  versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons

DETROIT is 7-0 ATS  versus sub par rushing defenses - allowing 4.5 or more  rushing yards/carry in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

DETROIT is 7-0 ATS  vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (DETROIT) - off a win against a division rival, in January games. are 27-6 L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL road teams (DETROIT) - excellent offensive team (370 or more  YPG) against a poor defense (335 to 370 YPG) after 8+ games, after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game are 25-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. 

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (GREEN BAY) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games, after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game are 15-41 ATS L/39 seasons for 71% conversion rate.

Play on the Detroit Lions 

I know Tampa Bay has some how found a way to make the play offs after garnering two straight wins but the coaching staff said they expect all their starters  to play this week as they try to continue to gain momentum in to the play offs because they have some issues that still need ironing out. Meanwhile, Atlanta has lost 4 straight games, and look like they are just going through the motions and dont really deserve respect as favs even at home. 

ATLANTA is 1-9 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

ATLANTA is 0-8 ATS  in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. 

NFL Road underdogs or pick (TAMPA BAY) - off a win against a division rival, in January games are 27-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. 

TAMPA BAY is 5-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons and 2-0 in their L/2 visits to Atlanta. 

Play on Tampa Bay to cover 

Cincinnati had their game suspended last time out because of a sudden heart attack of one of  their opponents players (Hamlin of the Buffalo Bills.)  It was a worrisome situation that Im betting is still playing the minds of the Bengals. Despite of this being the Bengals home finale Im betting Baltimore surging defensive play will keep them in this tilt for a cover. Note: Baltimore stoppers have allowed an average  of 292 yards per game over the L/2 plus months. The Ravens are also very competitive side as is evident by their   last six games being  decided by an average of just 4 ppg.  

CINCINNATI is 3-12 ATS L/15 versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 150 or more  rushing yards/game in the second half of the season . 

Harbaugh is 33-18 ATS  in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better as the coach of BALTIMORE

NFL Road teams (BALTIMORE) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 30-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Baltimore Ravens to cover 

After the collective trauma the Bills suffered last week when their team mate Hamlin suffered a cardiac arrest it wont  be a easy thing to get over . Needless to say  the lingering effects of that negative event could sway their mental cogdoscence this week making them vulnerable vs a  very hungry Pats team that is in desperation mode as they  need a victory here for a post season appearance.  The Pats also have the added incentive of revenge for a loss they suffered to the Bills earlier this season. 

NEW ENGLAND is 12-1 ATS  in road games revenging a loss against opponent by 14 points or more . (Buffalo beat the Pats 24-10 back in December) 

HC Bill Belichick in his last game of the season in his career with New England is 4-0 ATS as an underdog. 

NFL Road underdogs or pick (NEW ENGLAND) - off a win against a division rival, in January games are 27-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW ENGLAND) - after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games are 23-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (BUFFALO) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 8-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on New England to cover 

Chicago looks to be just going though the motions and are playing ugly ball losing their L/5 games by DDs. Here today vs a angry Vikings side looking to rebound from a beating at Green Bay will be primed for a Bounce back  before the play offs start. Vikings are 46-22 ATS in their last 68 games following a straight up loss.

Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Bears are 7-22 ATS in their last 29 vs. NFC.Bears are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 vs. NFC North. Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

CHICAGO is 0-6 ATS  vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.CHICAGO is 1-8 ATS  vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover 

Jacksonville has really played well of late and are off a couple of convincing wins, and 4 straight overall However is must be noted that  JACKSONVILLE is 1-9 ATS L/10  after 2 straight wins by 14 or more points . With the AFC title at hand here, Im betting we see a grinding affair that will not easily be won by either side making getting points the strongest option here tonight. Tennessee has won their L/2 visits to Jacksonville. 

Titans are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.

Jaguars are 3-8 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

NFL road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TENNESSEE) - after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games are 23-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate. 

Play on Tennessee to cover 

The Chiefs main concern this week is staying healthy for the play offs while Vegas who have been competitive for most of this season, will be primed to pull. off an upset. Considering the Raiders QB  Jarrett Stidham carved up one of the best defenses in the NFL last week in a 37-34 loss vs SF Im betting we have what Im betting is a live dog to back . 

Chiefs are 2-13-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.Chiefs are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.Chiefs are 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win.Chiefs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC West.Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.

 CITY is 0-6 ATS as a road favorite of 7.5 to 14 points over the last 3 seasons.KANSAS CITY is 1-10 ATS  against conference opponents this season.

McDaniels is 6-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record as the coach of LAS VEGAS.

Play on Raiders to cover

Pittsburgh is 6-2 when when JJ Watts their  outside linebacker plays and Im betting he will ignite this Steelers team again vs a Baltimore side that clinched a play of spot last week and could easily find themselves in a emotional let down spot vs a hard working group that believe it or not still have a chance at a play off spot. The Steelers have been victorious in four of their last five trips to the gridiron  with their only loss coming by two points against these same Ravens back in  Week 14.

BALTIMORE is 7-18 ATS   L/25 in home games after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight game. 

Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU L/5 vs Baltimore and 2-0 L/2 here in Baltimore. 

NFL Home favorites (BALTIMORE) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (1.25 or less turnovers/game committed), after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers are 19-43 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Pittsburgh to cover 

The Packers enter Week 17 on a three-game winning streak, and Im betting they make 4 in row here today behind the streakiest  QB  I ever seen (Aaron Rodgers)  . Minnesotas inability to protect their own QB (Cousins) will be key here, as they have allowed 11 sacks in their in their L/2 games. 

Rogers is 32-7-1 SU and 28-12 ATS at home in division games in his NFL career  and has cashed all 4 of his opportunities this season . 

Play on Green Bay Packers to cover 

Seahawks are struggling and have lost 3 straight and   off two  losses as pups but the good news comes via their  10-0 ATS mark  as hosts when coming off consecutive underdog losses. Also  Pete Carroll,  is 8-1 SU   at home in January, including 4-0 SUATS with a sub .500 record . Carroll is 20-9 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of SEATTLE.

The Seahawks go against a NY Jets that has gotten worse as the season has gone on, and no matter who starts at QB for them Wilson or White they just dont look cohesive as is evident by a 4 straight losses, and a overall offense that produces just 19.8 ppg on the road this season they continue to be fade material. 

NY JETS are 4-16 ATS   in road games versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 or more  rushing yards/carry in the second half of the season.

Play on Seattle to cover 

 Jacksonville has been playing well of late ,but being this big a fav on the road is not something I would support considering the Jags have failed to cover 5 of their L/7 as road favs. Meanwhile, the Texans come here looking confident after a upset win last week vs Tennessee for their third straight cover . 

Jacksonville Jaguars are 0-11 SU   against opposition coming off a SU underdog win. JACKSONVILLE is 0-6 ATS  as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

 HOUSTON is 5-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons and is 2-0 SU here at home. 

NFL Favorites (JACKSONVILLE) - after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 20-50 ATS L/39 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Houston Texans to cover 

The Colts have now had two straight 33-point meltdowns: one last week when Minnesota overcame a 33-point halftime deficit to defeat Indianapolis in a spectacular comeback victory the other when they were outscored 33-0 in in the final quarter a tight game at Dallas the week before . Needless to say this is a red faced group that will play this game with nothing to lose making them a dangerous foe. INDIANAPOLIS is 18-6 ATS L/24 as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points .

INDIANAPOLIS is 13-3 ATS  vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. over the last 3 seasons.

NFLHome underdogs or pick (INDIANAPOLIS) - after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season are 60-27 L/39 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Colts to cover

Tampa Bay is not a championship calibre team and they proved it last week by blowing a 17 point lead to the Bengals and then making blunder after blunder. in a ugly DD loss. Not even the great Tom Brady has looked all that good, as father time remains undefeated and has  slowed the future HOF down considerably. On the flip-side, Arizona has nothing to play for , but beating the Bucs would help many on this team sleep better. With that said, TB still in play off position, but still not the kind of team you want to back as a TD or more road fav as they are just 1-8 ATS L/9 as chalk and have failed to cash 6 of their L/7 vs NFC West  opposition. Add to that the Cards are 4-0 ATS L/4 in this series and 9-1 ATS L/10 as 2 point or more home pups. 

AMPA BAY is 1-7 ATS  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. this season. TAMPA BAY is 1-7 ATS  vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse this season. TAMPA BAY is 1-10 ATS  in games played on a grass field this season.

ARIZONA is 8-0 ATS  against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. 

 Kingsbury is 6-0 ATS versus poor rushing teams - averaging 90 or less  rushing yards/game as the coach of ARIZONA. Kingsbury is 10-1 ATS  against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season as the coach of ARIZONA.

NFL Favorites (TAMPA BAY) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing 1 or less turnovers/game, after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 16-50 ATS L/10 seasons for a 76% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Arizona to cover 

 Kansas City clinched  the AFC West last week, and could easily find themselves in a letdown spot here this week vs a  Seattle side Im sure they are overlooking. As the season winds down the Chiefs could start to rest some of their walking wounded  more often and with Seattle still with an outside chance to make the playoffs I expect Pete Carrolls Seahawks  will play hard here  and get us the cover. . 

Reid is 0-8 ATS in home games after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse in all games he has coached since 1992.

Carroll is 19-6 ATS  in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points as the coach of SEATTLE.

KANSAS CITY is 4-21 ATS  after gaining 6 or more yards/play in 4 consecutive games since 1992.

KANSAS CITY is 1-9 ATS  after scoring 30 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 3 season

Carroll is 19-4 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses as the coach of SEATTLE

Carroll is 12-2 ATS in road games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/att. as the coach of SEATTLE

Reid is 2-9 ATS in home games after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs as the coach of KANSAS CITY

NFL Favorites (KANSAS CITY) - solid team - outgaining their opponents by 0.75 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 18-60 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% go against conversion rate.

Seahawks to cover 

Cleveland has Watkins back under center-  Browns are 2-1 since Watson returned. He completed 18 of 28 passes for 161 yards in a 13-3 victory against Baltimore in his home debut in nasty conditions last Saturday. With this Saturday includes a 48 percent chance of snow, winds gusting beyond 30 mph and a high temperature of 13 degrees before factoring wind chill its going to be a ugly weather situation one that does not favor the dome side New Orleans.

Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win which was the case last time out. 

Browns are 3-0 ATS L/3 in this series and 8-1 L/9 vs AFC South opposition. 

Browns are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games.

NEW ORLEANS is 0-6 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. NEW ORLEANS is 9-24 ATS against AFC North division opponents since 1992. NEW ORLEANS is 0-6 ATS  after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons. NEW ORLEANS is 0-6 ATS ( after playing a game at home this season.

NFL Underdogs vs. the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - after going under the total by 49 or more points total in their last seven games, in the last 4 weeks of the regular season are 1-26 L/5 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at -11.3 which qualifies on this ATS offering. 

NFL team vs the money line (CLEVELAND) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, in the last 4 weeks of the regular season are 38-9 L/5 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +8.2 which qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Play on Browns to cover 

Last week the Vikings garnered a huge come from behind win scoring 33 points to outlast the Indianapolis Colts by a 39-36 count. That clinched their division and play off birth and now Im betting they are in a huge emotional letdown situation that could easily effect them here today vs a hungry NY Giants side. It must also be noted that Vikings have been out yarded in 5 of their L/6 trips to the gridiron and have been involved in 10 one score games this season. I know the Gmen may not inspire us, but they have cashed 7 of 9 as dogs, under HC Dabol and are viable investment options in this spot play. .

Vikings are 1-6 ATS L/7 vs NFC East opposition. 

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MINNESOTA) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 7-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% go against conversion rate. 

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MINNESOTA) - good offensive team - scoring 24 or more points/game, after a win by 3 or less points are 16-37 L/10 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Giants to cover

 New England lost a strange game last week, brain farts galore by some players best describes it. I wont get into it here, but it was embarrassing. Pros do not like to be embarrassed and coach Bellichick Im sure will have his team ready for redemption  against a red hot Bengals side that is on a 6-0 run.

Patriots are  6-1  ATS L7 in this series . and 4-1-1 L/6 vs AFC North opposition. NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 straight up against CINCINNATI since 1992. 

Patriots HC Bill Belichick is 14-0 ATS as a non-division dog coming off a loss with New England.

NEW ENGLAND is 26-12 ATS  as a home underdog since 1992.

Play on Patriots to cover 

The Jags are finally playing top brand of football behind  ,QB Trevor Lawrence  who now leads the NFL in passer rating (111.2) and completion percentage,  (14 TDs, 1 int)   going back to Week 9 . Tonight he will be challenged by a top tier D, but probably wont have to worry about going back and forth as the Jets offense is extremely atrocious. With the Jags still in the race for play off spot Im betting they get the job done with an all out effort and more importantly as far as we are concerned get the cover. 

Jaguars are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC. Jaguars are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.

Jets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.

Play on Jacksonville Jags to cover

QB Baker Mayfield made his return to the gridiron last week and lead the defending champs  to a  17-16 victory over the Raiders.  However, this Monday in the cold the tundra of historic  Lambeau Field  Im betting he freezes up and for the continually banged up Rams to falter.. Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win. Rams are also just  1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

It must be noted that the Green Bay Packers are 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS in this series since 2007 . Also QB Aaron Rodgers is 23-12-3 ATS in his career against NFC West opponents  and   when he is  coming off a Bye week is 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS at home in his career . 

GREEN BAY is 8-1 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons and they get the nod again tonight on MNF. 

Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Green Bay.

Rams are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 meetings.

Favorite is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings.

Play on Green Packers to cover

Tom Brady has a big chip on his shoulder right now after a bad game against the SF 49ers last time out.   It  was embarrassing as it was   third-worst loss in Brady’s NFL career.   But now with a week of rest (bye week) you can bet the GOAT will be out looking hard for redemption. I know the Bengals have won and covered 5 straight, but looking maybe a little bit to over confident.  note:  Brady  11-1 ATS in  career as a home underdog and 10-0 SU/ATS off a loss of more than 7 points. Advantage Brady and company. 

NFL Underdogs or pick (TAMPA BAY) - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/game committed) against a team with 1.25 or less TO/game forced, after 3 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers. are 38-13 ATS L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate.

Play on Tampa Bay Bucs to cover 

Chargers are in a good mood after an upset, of the Dolphins last week. But now after that emotional win will be in a letdown mode and vulnerable to a down effort vs a side that is having some problems and now with a new HC.  Note:NFL .500 or greater NFL sides like Tennessee that are 0-3 SUATS in its last three games versus an opponent that is coming off a SU/ATS win are 8-1 SU and 16-3 ATS taking on a side  off a SU underdog win.  We also  know the Titans are a run first team , and here against the worst run D, in the league allowing an average of 5.4 rpc , trouble in brewing for the favs. Titans are 6-1 ATS L/7 vs West.LA CHARGERS are 1-8 ATS  after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs over the last 3 seasons

LA CHARGERS are 21-39 ATS L/60 in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. 

TENNESSEE is 6-0 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Tennessee to cover 

There was a time earlier this season when I gave hope for Jaguars’ QB Trevor Lawrence,. but now my hopimism has turned positive  as is evident by his 111.7 passer rating over his L/3 outings.  I know he goes against a red hot Dallas side, but this Jags teams looks to have come to life and will highly motivated to steal a win here and more importantly as far as we are concerned get us the cover. In the only game here against Dallas in the history of the Jags, they are 1-0 SU/ATS. 

NFL Home teams (JACKSONVILLE) - in non-conference games, off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival are 31-9 L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Jacksonville to cover 

My power ranking suggest Detroit is the better side and currently in better form. than their opponents the NY Jets. The Lions are 6-0 SU L/6 overall while the NYJ have 4 of their L/6 and have overall shown long droughts of not being able to put points on the board averaging just 20.3 ppg  on the season. Advantage Lions. 

DETROIT is 6-0 ATS  when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 season,DETROIT is 12-1 ATS  vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

NFL Underdogs vs. the money line (NY JETS) - after going under the total by 49 or more points total in their last seven games, in the last 4 weeks of the regular season are 1-26 L/5 seasons for a 96% conversion rate. 

Play on Detroit to cover

The young men from Florida wont get much of welcome in the cold climate of Northern NY state this Saturday night against a revenge minded Bills who have redemption in mind for a loss they suffered in Miami earlier this season. I know the Bills already took a 16 point deficit win in the first revenge go around, but believe  me , teams like this double down this time of year and really come out to play. With this being the Dolphins 3rd straight road Im betting their a bit exhausted . Note: The Fins are 1-6 ATS L/7 in their 3rd game on the road. 

MIAMI is 4-13 ATS in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  75% or better) in the second half of the season. 

BUFFALO is 19-5 ATS  in home games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game in the second half of the season. 

Play on Buffalo to cover 

The Colts have not looked good lately and got beat up badly last time out vs Dallas, losing 54-19 allowing 33 points in the last quarter wow. Combination of bad luck and just plain ugly football has them embarrassed and out looking for immediate redemption. Pros dont like to be embarrassed like that and you can bet they will play like their proverbial hair is on fire. 
Note: Indianapolis is 11-0 ATS run when playing off a double-digit loss, 

Colts are 7-0 ATS L/7 vs NFC North opposition. Considering how inconsistent the Vikings have been this year wont be surprised if they have a down game. 

INDIANAPOLIS is 12-3 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. over the last 3 season

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MINNESOTA) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 7-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate. 

Play on Indy to cover 

 QB  Brock Purdy, and his 134 passer rating were impressive last week to say the least in the 49ers DD win vs the visiting Tampa Bay Bucs .  Meanwhile Seattle was taken out by a play off hungry Panthers last week by a  30-24 count, and failed to cover for the 4th straight time.   Despite of the two opposite trajectories these teams are on, Im betting the old ball coach Pete Carroll has some magic he can deploy in desperation mode as the Seahawks still have play off hopes.  With Star Deebo Samuel out with a sprained ankle and MCL and a expected regression from media darling Purdy and a desperation effort from the home side should help as cash a underdog ticket. ,Seattle is 4-0 ATS at home off a home game, as well 9-2-1 ATS in Thursday nights while the 49ers have failed to cover in three straight Thursday prime time tilts.  

SAN FRANCISCO is 13-28 ATS L/41 in road games after allowing 9 points or less last game . 

SEATTLE is 41-18 ATS  versus good rushing teams - averaging 130  or more rushing yards/game in the second half of the season. . Carroll is 6-0 ATS   in home games after failing to cover the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games as the coach of SEATTLE. Carroll is 7-0 ATS in home games vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game in all games he has coached 

NFL Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SEATTLE) - after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 22-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. 

Play on Seattle to cover  

 New England  well rested after a bye week is one game ahead of the Jets  and currently sits as the  No. 8 seed in the AFC playoff race and come into tilt in need of wins to stay relevant for post season action, while the Cardinals are pretty much toast when it comes to making the play offs , unless they can string together wins here to finish of the season. Im betting both sides will be motivated, but the coaching edge , resides with Belichick  going against Kingsbury.  Arizonas coach   Kingsbury is just  5-15 ATS at home  when his side is s 2 point or less underdog. and his side is  0-3 SUATS the last three in Monday night prime time tilts .  Meanwhile,  Bill Belichick is 22-9 SU/ATS against NFC West opposition sides  in his NFL career,  and 13-0 SU if that team is coming off a loss like Arizona is.  Also the Pats despite of coming off a loss are a resilient bunch as is evident by their  6-0 ATS record off a home loss by 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons and are also  7-0 ATS  after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game over the last 3 seasons. 

Patriots are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a bye week. Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

ARIZONA is 3-12 ATS   in home games against AFC East division opponents.ARIZONA is 1-9 ATS)in home games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.. Cardinals are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games.

Pats are 4-0 SU/ATS L/4 visits to Arizona.

Play on New England Pats to cover 

49ers starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo went down with a season-ending foot injury last time out and now a backup QB will go to the field ie probably Purdy who took over from Jimmy last time . With Tom Brady and company out seeking revenge for a previous loss to SF Im betting the Bucks have edge . Brady is 19-4-1 ATS when his team is seeking revenge and his 24-6 overall ATS record when getting points. Considering San Francisco is just 1-7 ATS as non-division home favorite  of less than four points its an easy decision for me to back the future HOF  QB to come up big here as the Bucs make a run at post season action .  I know SF is ranked in No.1 in D, but Tampa Bay's defense is  also of the top tier variety  as the  Buccaneers rank eighth in the NFL in total defense (313.8), fifth in scoring defense (18.3) and fourth in sacks (38).

Tampa Bay to cover 

Seattle had to come from behind and take a  late win vs the banged-up  Rams in Week 13. Seattle is getting far to much respect from the lines-makers this week, despite of playing a sub par side. We have to remember  Carolina (4-8),  and are off a bye week so their well rested and believe it or or not sill in a playoff position in the slumping NFC South. With that said the Panthers still have plenty to play  as they are  only two games out of first place.

Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Meanwhile, Seahawks are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight up win.

Seahawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

SEATTLE is 0-6 ATS  after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Home teams (SEATTLE) - excellent passing team (7.3 or less PYA) against an average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA), after gaining 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games are 9-32 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Carolina Panthers to cover 

Both teams were blown out last week, but one of these teams is more motivated than the other as ,  Jacksonville (4-8) has one shot to get it self into contention for post season action. It either wins this week or it will miss the playoffs for the fifth straight year since advancing to the AFC finals in 2017, when it held a fourth-quarter lead before losing in New England. Motivational factors support taking the points here with the Jags. 

Pederson is 14-3 ATS  versus good rushing defenses - allowing 90 or less rushing yards/game in all games he has coached since 1992.

TENNESSEE is 8-20 ATS L/28 vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game in the second half of the season.  TENNESSEE is 9-22 ATS after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight game

NFL Favorites of -160 to -475 vs. the money line (TENNESSEE) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 8-17 L/10 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Jacksonville to cover 

The Cowboys are running hot, but Im going to take a contrarian stance here tonight and back Indianapolis to cover the line. I know the Colts disappointed last week in a loss as favorites but they have proven resilient in the past off that type of loss winning 11 of their L/13 opportunities for redemption. NDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 ATS  in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return over the last 3 seasons. INDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 ATS   in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more  yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. INDIANAPOLIS is 8-1 ATS  in road games versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons.

DALLAS is 0-6 ATS in home games after outgaining opp by 100 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.

Dallas’ owns a sub par  9-17 SU and 7-17-2 ATS record against non-division opposition in prime time Sunday Night affairs. 

The Cowboys own a 0-5 ATS record as  chalk of more than 7 points when coming off a Thanksgiving day game .  Meanwhile, the The Colts  owns a powerful  8-1 ATS records  before their Bye week, which is up next a are 7-1 ATS   in non-conference road tilts . 

Play on Indianapolis Colts to cover

The Chiefs have big time revenge on board for their AFC championship game loss  last season,  to this Cincinnati side.  Im betting they get their redemption  behind the arm and legs of super star QB Patrick Mahomes who is  26-0 in his last 26 starts in November and December. 

 Play on KC Chiefs to cover 

I know the defending Super Bowl champions the LA Rams are banged up and not in top form , but this is just to many points for the Seahawks to cover in my humble opinion on the road , giving us value with the undervalued  home underdog. SEATTLE is 0-6 ATS in road games off a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons. Carroll is 18-33 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less in all games he has coached since 1992. 

Rams are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 13.

Rams are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in December.

NFL Favorites (SEATTLE) - good rushing team - averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry, after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game are just 67-119 ATS L/39 seasons for a go against 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Rams to cover 

 The Jets have pivoted from  QB Zach Wilson to Mike White and Im betting that will be a beneficial move . The Jets right now if the season ended would be in the play offs and are very motivated to get some upward momentum.  It must be noted in two career starts, White owns passer ratings of 149.3  and 101.1 in his first and only other start  last season.  Interestingly enough the Jets had eclipsed the  30 point -plateau  and 450 Total Yards in the last four seasons just 3 times and guess who was the starting QB  in those games, you got it - White. So this week against a Vikings side that has lost the stats battles in 3 straight games, the Jets must not be underestimated in this ability to cash a ticket for us. 

NY JETS are 6-0 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse this season.NY JETS are 6-0 ATS  vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game over the last 2 seasons.

NFL Underdogs or pick (NY JETS) - after a game where they committed no turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 26-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

NFLHome favorites (MINNESOTA) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (1.25 or less turnovers/game committed), after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers are 16-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

NY Jets to cover

Pittsburgh is being under rated here in this matchup vs the Colts especially with JJ watts in the lineup. His energy permeates through this team and gives them an extra charge.  The Steelers are  8-0-1 ATS in the last nine matchups  versus AFC South opponents, while the Colts  are just 1-6 ATS L/7 vs AFC North opponents.

The  Steelers are 16-2 SU L/18 in this series, including 2-0 SUATS as a pup. I know the Colts have played better of late, but this team is still in disarray and fade material in my humble betting opinion. 

Pittsburgh 8-1 ATS L/ 9 MNF vs division opposition

Play Pittsburgh to cover . 

The Eagles had to get down and dirty in a come from behind  in the 4th quarter last week to garner a  17-16 win vs Indianapolis and will now be in an unfortunate emotional letdown situation vs a very hungry Green Bay side. I know the Packers fell flat on their faces last week losing as favs , but it must be noted that  QB Aaron Rodgers is 10-1 SU/ATS as a pup when the Packers are coming off a SU favorite loss. Rodgers is a very streaky QB, and dont be surprised if he finishes this season on fire, starting tonight in Philly on national TV. 

It must also be noted that Philly has lost the stats wars in 3 of their L/6 games and are being over rated by the pundits in my humble betting opinion. 

PHILADELPHIA is 14-31 ATS  in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

NFL Underdogs or pick (GREEN BAY) - after a game where they committed no turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 26-4 L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

NFLHome favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PHILADELPHIA) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 5-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Green Bay Packers to cover

The Jets averaged 2.1 yards per play in last Sundays defeat at the hands of the New England Pats and don't deserve this much respect based on having a overall strong D. QB Wilson will not start this week, but any back up pivot Im betting wont fair much better . Yes, I do know QB Justin Fields is not 100% but his legs are dangerous offensive weapons and if he does not play pounding the ball on the ground is not a foreign concept of moving the ball for the Bears giving them an advantage in this type of matchup. 

NY JETS are 19-34 ATS  off a road loss against a division rival since 1992. NY JETS are 22-38 ATS in home games in non-conference games since 1992.

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NY JETS) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games, after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game are 13-40 ATS L/39 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate. 

CHICAGO is 6-1 against the spread versus NY JETS since 1992 and have covered their L/3 visits to NYJ. 

Chicago is 4-0 ATS L/4 vs AFC East opposition.

Play on the Chicago Bears to cover 

Wow it was a crazy week for both these sides last time out on the gridiron. The 8-2 Vikings took their worst home loss since 1963 and the Pats after looking asleep at the wheel  for most of their game vs the Jets took a walk off win with a punt return for the length of the field. Now Im betting on a complete reversal of sorts as a huge redemption minded bounce back for the Vikes is in play and for karma to instantly strike back at the Pats vs an embarrassed side looking to gain back some self respect. Im betting on Minnesota to make it 5-0 SU/ATS L/5 Thanksgiving days games.

MINNESOTA is 12-2 ATS  in home games after a loss by 21 or more points since 1992.

Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover 

Atlanta is 4-6 SU on the season, but even at that sub standard record is a aberration  as the Falcons have been out-yarded -82 in net YPG  ranking second worse in the NFL and are an ugly  1-9  in the stats battles this  campaign. Meanwhile, the Bears , despite of not being a top tier side, are dangerous behind the legs of  QB Justin Fields and a offensive system that starting to micmic cfb military school programs. That might be an exaggeration but you get the picture. Im saying the Bears matchup well here vs a obviously over rated opponent based on stats. 

Bears are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss which was the case last time out. 

Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

ATLANTA is 1-8 ATS  as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons.ATLANTA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Home teams (ATLANTA) - off a road loss, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%) are 24-61 ATS L/39 seasons for a go against  72% conversion rate. 

Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

Play on Chicago Bears to cover 

NY Jets are playing over all proficient football and are  6-3 SUATS record, including 4-0 SUATS on the road and have an overall 5-1 SU record L/6 trips to the gridiron and obviously deserve respect as road dogs. I know New England carries a famous brand name but the Jets are a team on the rise and look very much like a viable side to back. Yes, I know the Pats are well rested, but that has not been a recipe for success for Bellichick and company going 1-10-1 ATS with rest. 

Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC East.

NY JETS are 37-21 ATS  in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 38 points since 1992.

Play on NY Jets to cover 

 Detroit rallied last week from a 24-10 deficit to pull off a 31-30 win, the franchise's first victory after trailing by 14 or more points entering the fourth quarter since 1993. Now with momentum on their sides the Lions enter with confidence and Im betting will be prepared to battle again this week vs the Giants. The Lions' offense has been very  efficient over the past three games, turning the ball over just once and must not be underestimated in the dog role.

Visitor is  10-2 ATS in this series .Detroit is  8-3 non-division road dogs of  6 points or less.

DETROIT is 6-0 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more yards/play in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.DETROIT is 17-5 ATS  after being out-gained by 75 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games.

Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in November.Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Lions are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 vs. NFC.

Campbell is 1-9 ATS  after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games in all games he has coached since 1992.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (DETROIT) - good offensive team - scoring 24 or more points/game, after a win by 3 or less points are 95-47 ATS L/39 seasons for a 67% conversion rate.

DETROIT is 5-1 against the spread versus NY GIANTS L/6 meetings.Road team is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings.

Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in New York.

Play on Lions to cover

 Rams were shocked last week as with 35 seconds left on the clock Tom Brady engineered a come from behind victory with a TD that shocked and emotionally smacked the Rams down a few notches. Now in a rebound mode Im betting the redemption minded Rams come out here with their proverbial hair on fire and take down the visiting Cardinals. ARIZONA is 0-6 ATS vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. ARIZONA is 2-11 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Kingsbury is 0-6 ATS after allowing 30 points or more in 2 straight games as the coach of ARIZONA.

NFL Underdogs vs. the money line (ARIZONA) - with a poor scoring defense - allowing 24 or more points/game, after allowing 30 points or more in 3 straight games are 3-33 L/5 seasons a  go against 92% conversion rate.

NFL Underdogs vs. the money line (ARIZONA) - poor team - outscored by opponents by 4 or more points/game, after allowing 30 points or more in 3 straight games are 2-29 L/5 seasons for 94% conversion rate.

Rams are 5-1 SU/ATS L/6 in this series.

Play on LA Rams to cover 

I respect how well the Giants have played this season overall but they have a long history of playing down to their opposition. It must be noted that the Gmen have failed to cover 12 of their L/16 vs sub .150 struggling sides like the Texans. Texans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 10.

Texans are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

NY GIANTS are 3-11 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. NY GIANTS are 8-19 L/27  ATS  in home games after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games . 

Giants are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.Giants are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

NFL Favorites (NY GIANTS) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (18-23 PPG), after a loss by 10 or more points are 8-29 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFLRoad underdogs or pick (HOUSTON) - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/game committed) against a team with 1.25 or less TO/game forced are 60-29 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Play on Texans to cover 

According to my power rankings this game should be closer to a pickem even though the Bears have home field advantage thus giving us value with the road dog. DETROIT is 8-1 ATS  vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in November.

Lions are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC North.

CHICAGO is 0-6 ATS in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.CHICAGO is 5-13 ATS  against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC North.Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Bears are 0-3-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

NFL team (CHICAGO) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 4-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (DETROIT) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games are 36-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Play on the Detroit Lions to cover 

The  inconsistent Saints  played their most complete game of the season when they beat visiting Las Vegas 24-0 two weeks ago and despite of a loss last week are more than capable of a bounce back vs a Pittsburgh side they matchup well against. Not betting on another shut out, but against a  offense, which is averaging just 15 points per game and is tied for the fewest offensive touchdowns in the NFL (11) the Saints have a great opportunity for victory. 

NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS  in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Saints are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous gam

PITTSBURGH is 3-12 ATS L/15 against teams with a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse in the second half of the season . 

NFL Favorites vs. the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - good rushing team (125 to 150 RY/game) against a poor rushing team (70-95 RY/game) after 8+ games, after allowing 175 or more rushing yards last game are 35-2 L/39 seasons for a 95% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Saints to cover 

Cleveland according to my power rankings despite of a sub .500 record is very under rated and deserve respect here as underdogs vs a Miami side that are ranked 15th in rushing yardage allowed per game this season. Look for Nick Chubb to do what other RBs have not done to the Dolphins and rush consistently and for more than 100 yards. Chubb is second only to Derrick Henry in rushing yards per game (105.1) and leads the league in rushing touchdowns, with 10. Chubb will be the difference maker . 

 Miami is 0-7 ATS  after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games since 1992. MIAMI is 6-21 ATS  in home games after a win by 3 or less points .MIAMI is 16-30 ATS in home games after a win by 6 or less points. 

NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MIAMI) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in November games are 3-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 90% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MIAMI) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 9-37 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate.

NFL Road teams (CLEVELAND) - excellent offensive team (370 or more  YPG) against a poor defense (335 to 370 YPG) after 8+ games, after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game are 24-4 ATS L/26 seasons for a 86% conversion rate. 

Play on Cleveland to cover 

Jacksonville is improving as is evident by winning the stats battles in 5 of 9 games this season and off a SU win last week  and  are capable of competing  here vs a KC team in a letdown situation after  QB Patrick Mahomes passed for 446 yards last week. Im now bettong on regression from the KC QB and his team. Note: KANSAS CITY is 1-8 ATS after gaining 300 or more passing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. KANSAS CITY is 1-16 ATS L/17 after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games .  

Reid is 1-9 ATS in home games after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs as the coach of KANSAS CITY.

NFL favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS CITY) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in November games are 3-26 L/5 seasons for a go against 90% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Jacksonville to cover 

Last time out future HOF  QB  Brady went on a , 60-yard drive with under 40 seconds left of last week’s victory vs the Rams and in doing so showed us you can never count him or his team out of any game.  I know the Buccaneers opponents today the Seahawks have won 4 straight, su and ATS but they are an over rated bunch in my humble opinion and the lines-makers look like they agree with my assessment. It must be noted Brady  is 3-0 SUATS in his NFL career in regular season games on neutral field and is now motivated to get his team back to .500. Look for the super star to be primed to perform on an international stage and to help his team to a win and cover over Pete Carroll and company. 

Buccaneers are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.Buccaneers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November.

TAMPA BAY is 11-3 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TAMPA BAY) - after 3 or more consecutive losses including pushes  against the spread against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 34-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Seahawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Tampa Bay to cover 

The Saints are off a top tier 24-0 effort last time out vs a very inconsistent Raiders team. However it must be noted that NFL teams off a shutout home win are just 1-4 ATS/SU  L/5 opportunities dating back 37 seasons. Also the Saints have proven themselves very inconsistent this season, losing 5 of 8 games. Allen is 3-12 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread in all games he has coached and is vulnerable to a letdown scenario here.

NEW ORLEANS is also just  9-22 ATS  L/31  against AFC North division opponents .

Harbaugh is 6-0 ATS  in road games against teams with a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse in the second half of the season as the coach of BALTIMORE.

Favorites vs. the money line (BALTIMORE) - team with a turnover diff. of +0.75/game or better against a team with a diff of -0.75/game or worse, after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 31-3 L/10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors.

New Orleans is 0-5 ATS under the Monday night lights of prime time action, 

Baltimore is 6-1-1 ATS on Monday night away tilts.

Play on Baltimore to win /cover

Future HOF QB Brady and the Buccaneers are no longer to be feared as is evident by their sub par play so far this season. Brady has averaged a substandard 6.7 yards per attempt and the offense is tied for 25th in third-down efficiency (34.6 percent). 

TAMPA BAY is 9-21 ATS  in home games vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game. TAMPA BAY is 0-6 ATS  in games played on a grass field this season. TAMPA BAY is 0-6 ATS   in games played on a grass field this season which was the case last time out. 

After a negative outing vs the SF 49ers last /Sunday the defending Super Bowl Champs will be in redemption and bounce back mode and are very dangerous. Sean McVay  is 10-5 ATS as a  road dog and  10-3 ATS and 9-4 ATS i vs NFC South opposition , including cashing and winning 3 straight as a dog. The  Rams’  also own a 8-1 ATS series record vs the Bucs and 3-0 SU/ATS L/3 visits to Tampa Bay. 

Small non-Division Away Pup (+5 or less points) if they lost their last game as a Home Dog/pk and scored 20 points or less are 24-2 ATS . Rams qualify.

NFL team vs the money line (TAMPA BAY) - poor rushing team - averaging 90 or less rushing yards/game, after being outrushed by 75 or more yards in 2 straight games are 28-6 L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Rams 

Oh how far the mighty have fallen. Biblical proportions have been attached to line and the perception of the public and the lines-makers ability to play into that concept. Right now Rodgers and company are no longer feared by their opponents and the betting public has abandoned them for their new darlings the Buffalo Bills. 
However with that said it must be noted QB Rodgers is 40-15 SU in his career in October, tilts including 8-1 ATS as a pup of 2 points or more. The inconsistent star seems to stand tall in these types of games , however, as is evident by his  5-0 SU /ATS mark in tilts he enters with a sub .500 record when going against top tier competition with a  .750 or better win percentage. When the chips are down Im betting the Packers find a way to be competitive in this nationally televised prime time event. 

NFL Favorites (BUFFALO) - solid team - outgaining their opponents by 0.75 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 15-53 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against  78% conversion rate.

Play on Green Bay to cover 

The defending Super Bowl Champs are not getting alot of respect here , probably based on  their  24-9 loss on the road in San Francisco  in early October. However, now in revenge mode, Im betting on this sleepy looking Rams side to come out their coma here with a top tier effort.

McVay is 10-2 ATS  after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games as the coach of LA RAMS.

NFL Underdogs or pick (LA RAMS) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 49-15 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Favorites (SAN FRANCISCO) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (18-23 PPG), after a loss by 10 or more points are 7-29 L/10 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home teams vs. the money line (LA RAMS) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off a home blowout loss by 21 points or more are 24-1 L/39 seasons for a 96% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on LA Rams to cover 

Atlantas positive ATS record according to my data is skewed in comparison to the the fact they have been out-gained in each of their last six trips to the gridiron. Thats not a good omen for a team that has failed to cover 11 of their L/15 as home favs. ATLANTA is 3-11 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons and despite of Carolina not having a solid record still beat TB last week and were gritty in a loss to the Rams in their previous game. Carolina has won their last two visits here and don't be surprised if a rinse and repeat situation rears it ugly head in this spot play.

NFL  Road underdogs or pick (CAROLINA) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games are 35-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Home favorites (ATLANTA) - after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 10-35 ATS 39 seasons for a 78% go against conversion rate. 

Take the points with Carolina to cover 

Is Tom Brady finally starting to show his age?  Well to an extent he has been for a while, but even at 75% of where he was the future HOF QB is still better than most QBs in this league and deserves respect .  The Bucs lost last week and look lost in the process , but after all the negative press are ready to reap redemption on a national stage this Thursday night. .  Lets look at what Brady bring to the table in a situation like this.... He is  10-0 SU/ATS in his NFL career with a sub .500 record  and coming off a SU defeat . While the Ravens are 0-3-1 ATS L/4 overall and  0-5-1 ATS  in Thursday night road game . Until Tommy shows me he is toast Im betting he will be the difference maker here today and motivating factor behind a Bucs rebound.Ravens are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Buccaneers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.Buccaneers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Play on Tampa Bay to cover 

 The Bears 5-1 ATS in their last six Monday Night road games have finally figured out that any success they will have this season wont come on the back of QB Justin Fields. Thus Im expecting a continued run heavy attack from the Bears and for their staunch defense to stand tall. Note: The Bears rushing attack has big-play potential, ranking second in rush yards per game (170) and seventh in rushing average (5.2 yards per rush).With that said  I will  back them getting more than a TD on the road here in this prime time event . 

NFL Home teams (NEW ENGLAND) - excellent passing team (7.3  or more PY/Att.) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PY/Att.), after gaining 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 9-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate.

Play on Bears to cover

KC QB Mahomes is in bounce back and redemption mode this week after throwing a late interception last week and falling short vs Josh Allan and Buffalo . The top tier QB is still high in the  NFL  QB standing with a passer rating of at least 100 and is tied for the league lead with 17 touchdown passes and capable of a big effort . Considering the 49ers are banged up on both offense and defense  they are in trouble. The Niners also have alot of walking wounded who if they play are less than 100% i.e( Left tackle Trent Williams and defensive end Nick Bosa ) Advantage Chiefs. 

49ers are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games in Week 7.

Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

NFL Underdogs -SU (SAN FRANCISCO) - after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game against opponent after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 3 straight games are 1-25 L/5 seasons with the average ppg diff  clicking in at -12.3 which easily qualifies on this ATS line offering. 

Play on Kansas City to cover 

Giants Im betting will  continue their  upward momentum  on Sunday when they face the host Jacksonville Jaguars.  The lines-makers expect this to be a close game, but the Giants have shown grit and propensity, as is evident by winning five of the 6 one-score tilts and a rinse and repeat situation is at hand again this Sunday. Yes, I know  Jags QB Trevor Lawrence had a big game last week, maybe the best of his career, but his team still found a way to lose to a Indy team they have dominated in the recent past . Letdown is in order here for Jags as is continued success for Big Blue.  

NY GIANTS are 9-1 ATS in road games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

JACKSONVILLE is 0-7 ATS   in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.  

The Jaguars 0-18 SU  in their last eighteen games against NFC opposition.

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (JACKSONVILLE) - after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points, in October games are 8-24 L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (NY GIANTS) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 36-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on NY Giants to cover 

 QB Wilson has not performed well for the Broncos since coming over from Seattle but he is  15-2-1 ATS in his  career  as an underdog vs opposition  coming off consecutive victories  like the Chargers , including a stellar  8-0 ATS mark in division games under those parameters. Look for the QB to finally get things going this week, and for a solid Denver D, to give the Chargers all they can handle in this Monday night spot play. 

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LA CHARGERS) - good offensive team - scoring 24 or more points/game, after a win by 3 or less points are 12-36 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Underdogs or pick (DENVER) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games are 36-12 ATS 5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Denver to cover 

Buffalo is great team and off a convincing 38-3 win vs Pittsburgh last week ,  but I have circled this game on my schedule for a while, and with the Chiefs getting points Im going with the underdog. Mahomes has matured alot after some key losses and in his career and now looks ready to ascend . Chiefs QB Mahomes is 9-0 ATS as a dog in his NFL career and Im betting he and his team have the edge in this tilt.  I know the kid had to work hard to get bring his team back from a deficit last time out in a 30-29 win, but he proved himself to be a winner, and nothing changes today.

Reid is 35-18 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of KANSAS CITY.

NFL Road favorites (BUFFALO) - solid team - out-gaining their opponents by 0.75 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 5-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Favorites (BUFFALO) - with an incredible offense - averaging 385 or more total yards/game, after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 6-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Chiefs to cover 

Arizona is more than capable of  taking advantage of Seattle's porous run defense and Im betting on  QB Kyle Murray to run wild here and use play action to put up a big offensive output. The Seahawks have allowed an average of 30.8 ppg this season, and those numbers should not get any better after this tilt. 

ARIZONA is 6-0 ATS  in road games in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Kingsbury is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. poor ball control teams, 28 or less possession minutes/game as the coach of ARIZONA.

SEATTLE is 0-6 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better over the last 3 seasons.

NFL team (SEATTLE) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 2-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 92% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road favorites (ARIZONA) - with a poor first half defense - 14 or more points per game, after a loss by 6 or less points are 22-4 ATS L/39 seasons for a 85% conversion rate. 

The visiting team is  15-2-1 ATS in this series and a rinse and repeat situation is at hand this Sunday again. 

Play on Arizona to cover 

How embarrassing it must have been for the Steelers as an organization after last weeks 38-3 loss to Buffalo. Now in redemption mode Im expecting  Tomlin and company to salvage some respect with a top tier effort here at home vs TB ,  where they are 9-1-3 ATS L/13 as home dogs, including a 5-0 ATS mark vs NFC south and 5-1 ATS L/6 vs the Buccaneers. Note:Tomlin when getting points at home is  12-2-5 ATS in his career, including 5-0-2 ATS L/7 opportunities dating back 4 seasons. 

PITTSBURGH is 17-6 ATS  after allowing 35 points or more last game since 1992 with a +8 point diff. 

NFLHome underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PITTSBURGH) - slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 14 points or less last game are 31-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Pittsburgh to cover 

The Giants are being under rated here as home dogs vs a Baltimore team that does not deserve as much respect as its getting based in part on their reputation and their win against Cincinnati last time out. However, after watching the Giants consistently this season, Ive noticed one key factor which has me on them today, and that is team chemistry and grit. This team plays hard, and have more upper tier talent than given credit for.

Note: Ravens bring a 3-7 ATS  L/10 NFC East, including  0-4-1 ATS when traveling . The home side this season is  5-0 ATS run in this series and a rinse and repeat situation is at hand. 

Harbaugh is 18-30 ATS  in October games as the coach of BALTIMORE.

NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (BALTIMORE) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (1.25 or less turnovers/game committed), after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers are 22-49 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against  69% conversion rate. 

Play on NY Giants to cover 

Dolphins QBs Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater are  in concussion protocol, and if one or the other plays will be less than 100% this week vs the visiting Vikings. The Dolphins could be forced to start rookie Skylar Thompson, who played most of Miami's Week 4 loss to the New York Jets. On the flipside Im betting QB  Kirk Cousins and the Vikings take advantage of the banged up Fins and  Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook  to  explode on the Miami defense  and romp to a win behind a consistent offense. 

MIAMI is 0-6 ATS in October games over the last 2 seasons.

I know Philly is a perfect 4-0 and the only undefeated team in the NFL right now but despite of The Birds offensive line is a little banged up they are still capable of hanging tough here at home vs a team traveling from the west to east. Note: The Cards  signed some insurance in the form of Billy Price who is a multiple purpose lineman and highly under rated. Im betting despite of the injuries the Cards will step up here and be competitive. 

Arizona is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against the NFC East. ARIZONA is 22-9 ATS   vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season. Kingsbury is 11-3 ATS  in weeks 5 through 9 as the coach of ARIZONA. Kingsbury is 11-3 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of ARIZONA.

NFL Road favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - solid team - out-gaining their opponents by 0.75 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are just 5-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Cardinals to cover 

 Detroit owns a a defense that ranks at the bottom of the NFL in overall yards (444.8) and points allowed (35.3 ) and is in fade material in their current form . Detroit lost to Seattle 48-45 last time out. Patriots are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and have the edge! 

DETROIT is 3-12 ATS  in road games off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less. DETROIT is 9-22 ATS  in road games after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game

NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS  against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Belichick is 17-4 ATS after being out-gained by 150+ total yards in their previous game as the coach of NEW ENGLAND which was the case last time out. 

NFL  team (DETROIT) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 2-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 92% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Patriots to cover 

Miamis QB today Bridgewater is 2-0 in two career starts against the Jets, completing 73.1 percent of his throws in those affairs. Today Im betting he hits Tyreek Hill (477 yards, two touchdowns) and Jaylen Waddle (381 yards, three touchdowns) for enough receptions and scores to get us to the promised land. Meanwhile, the flip-side, NY Jets QB Wilson, who went 3-10 as a starter last year, is playing behind a banged-up offensive line and at a disadvantage this Sunday. 

Dolphins are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC East.MIAMI is 9-0 ATS  off 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons.

Jets are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 vs. AFC East.

Play on the Miami Dolphins to cover 

NYG QB Daniels is not 100% with a banged up ankle hampering his mobility which is not a good omen against the Packers aggressive pass rush. With that said, Im betting on the Gmens offense to have flow issues, while the Packers behind , Aaron Rodgers arm gets consistent production and gets is a conclusive victory. 

In the previous 7 international  games that have featured favs  of more than 7 points  the chalk have gone 6-0 SU cashing 5 of those times with the winning team allowing an average of just 11.7 ppg. 

NFL Favorites vs. the money line (GREEN BAY) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (18-23 PPG), after a win by 3 or less points are 29-1 L/10 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +13.2 which qualifies on the his ATS offering. 

Play on Green Packers to cover 

Colts star   RB Jonathan Taylor is not 100% if he plays tonight as his ankle continues to give him trouble. With the Colts  key offensive juggernaut not at his zenith their offense should continue to struggle. Note: Colts offense has averaged   an NFL-low 14.3 points per game and with senior citizen  QB Matt Ryan on his last legs the Colts offense is not going to operate well enough to generate a decent output . On the flip-side Broncos  qb Wilson has gone 20-3 in home primetime games and will be out to show case his top shelf grit this Thursday night and finally get consistent red zone TD conversions.  

The Colts are ranked 32nd in offensive DVOA this year.

Broncos are 4-0 SU/ATS vs non division opposition on Thursday nights and are 4-0 ATS L/4 in this series.

NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (INDIANAPOLIS) - poor rushing team (70-95 RY/game) against a team with an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/game), after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 60-107 L/39 seasons for a go against 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Denver 

I  have a great deal of respect for KC and Patrick Mahomes but tonight Im betting against them on the road in Tampa Bay against QB Tom Brady and company. I know  three-time NFL MVP has thrown for just 673 yards and three touchdowns in three games after setting franchise records in both categories last season (5,316, 43) but like a thoroughbred off a long lay off , he will be now ready  with the rust worm off to perform at an optimal output here on national tv in the Sunday night spot light event. Note: Brady is 11-1-1 ATS as a home dog in his illustrious career. 

Chiefs are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.Chiefs are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games following a ATS loss.Chiefs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

Buccaneers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss.Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Buccaneers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games.

Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Tampa Bay.Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

NFL Favorites (KANSAS CITY) - out-gaining their opponents by 1.75 or more passing yards/attempt, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game arem24-56 L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tampa Bay to cover 

 The New York Jets secondary has  allowed the fourth-most yards per attempt at 7.5 per pass and Im betting even the much maligned QB Trubisky cannot do some downfield damage here this Sunday.Opposition QBs  have eclipsed  this offered Total in two of three games against the Jets and a rinse and repeat situation is a high probability event. 

Dallas QB Rush has played well in wins over the AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals and the New York Giants but Im betting he has a lapse here vs a D that my rankings suggest matchup well against him and the Dallas O line!  

I know the Commanders experienced a nasty day  in last week's 24-8 loss to Philadelphia, but this is a better side than that score would indicate and Im betting they will be ready to get some redemption in a motivated bounce back situation. 

Washington's QB  Wentz has a history of success against the Boyz. In eight career starts against the men from Dallas , and  has  garnered 14 touchdowns and a career passer rating of 95.7. He will be key again and give us the edge to cover. 

WASHINGTON is 20-8 ATS L/28 in road games vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return . Rivera is 22-10 ATS  after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread in all games he has coached.

NFL Favorites (DALLAS) - poor offensive team - scoring 17 or less points/game are 3-21 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 88% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Washington to cover