New Orleans enters this game playing their best football of the season and have out stated their L/7 opponents since their bye week. Meanwhile, the Lions are off a crazy win thanks to last minute interception  vs Minnesota on Thanks giving Day, after being down by 3 points with a few minutes left on the clock. With that said, I now expect the Lions to be in a letdown spot, after that emotional victory, It must also be noted the Saints are 3-17 SU in their L/20 post game situations after Turkey day and have failed to cover 4 of their L/5.

NEW ORLEANS is also a  perfect 8-0 ATS L/8 versus good offensive teams like the Lions - averaging 5.65 yards/play dating back to last season.DETROIT is 1-11 ATS L/12 in road games after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games and is 8-26 ATS L/34 in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins. 

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Green Bay and Philadelphia are in slumps, and both need a win here badly. The Packers have lost four in a row , while the Eagles have crashed back to Earth with losses in five of their last seven games, and  last week at Seattle lost  by 11 points. Hoever,  the Green Machine's other four losses have come by a combined 19 points. Those close games tell me nothing comes easy for the Eagles, win or lose , thus getting and taking points with another desperate team makes extreme sense.With both teams banged up and both are dealing with  disadvantages, neither team has a solid advantage, other than home field advantage, which is desingnated via the line. But in a key game like this, Im betting on QB Aaron Rodgers out dueling Eagles rookie under center Carson Wentz.

From a long term NFL trends perspective, Road teams like the Packers - off a road loss, in November games are 170-108 ATS L/278 games for a 61% conversion rate on the line. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like GB - off a road loss, a lower tier team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season, are 106 -60 ATS for a 63% conversion rate. Home teams like the Eagles - off a road loss against opponent off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more like the Packers are 72-120 ATS L/192 for go against conversion rate on the line of 63%. 

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New Orleans has not been able to take advantage of teams like St.Louis in the recent past that struggle to score consistently. Payton is 0-7 ATS L/7 in home games vs. poor offensive teams - scoring 17 or less points/game as the coach. Meanwhile the Rams have done well vs lower tier defensive teams who give up 27 or more points/game. LA RAMS are 13-4 ATS L/17 in road games . 

Home favorites like Saints - off a road loss, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%) are 3-22 ATS L/25.

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The Vikings enter this game with a 6-1 ATS record vs. a team with a winning record like Motown and 9-3 ATS in their L/12 road games. The Vikings won last time out, after an extended funk, and look ready to roll again. Meanwhile, the Lions are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 vs. NFC North and have only failed to cover 6 of the L/23 meetings in this series.

.Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 Minnesota - after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 67-36 ATS L/103 opportunities. 

DETROIT is 1-13 ATS L/14 against teams like the Vikings who commit 1 or less turnovers/game in the second half of the season. MINNESOTA is 12-1 ATS L/13 in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points.DETROIT is 14-31 ATS L/45 after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games. Minnesota is 2-0 ATS L/2 meetings there. Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

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The Rams' No. 1 pick in this spring's NFL draft out of the University of California Jared Goff makes his debut this Sunday. I know the LA fan base is all giddy, but they really should temper their expectations, as the NFL has seen very few rookie QBs make a splash out of the gate. The Rams (4-5) were held without an offensive touchdown for the third straight game in a 9-6 victory over the Jets in New York last week, but the problems go beyond the QB position.Los Angeles ranks last in scoring at 15.4 points per game and the former No.1 man under center Keenum-led offense is 31st in total offense with an average of 308 yard. Meawhile, Miami at team that has won 4 straight, stayed out on the west coast all week, and have got themselves acclimated to the time change, and will be more than ready for this tilt. Miami is 6-1 L/7 played in this series.

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Kansas City enters into this game vs Tampa Bay off a come from behind victory vs Carolina last week, after being down by double digits. Now because of that enormous comeback , they will be in a let an emotional down scenario this week at home in Arrowhead and alos in a look ahead situation with the defending Super Bowl champs Denver on board next week. Nothing has really come easy for KC this season despite of their positive record. Thanks to a fortunate plus-14 on takeaways/giveaways, which ranks them the No. 1 team in the league . They have forced 22 turnovers and given opponents eight fumbles and interceptions, and have scored 72 points off those takeaways. If it were not for those pumped up digits, and a tenacious D inside the red zone I would say this is an average team. Don;t get me wrong I like Andy Reids Chiefs, but I keep getting the nagging feeling that their offense will eventually ail them, and that what I am betting on this week. Last week banged up QB Alex Smith struggled at times, and only had one completion for more than 20 yards. This Sunday, Im betting Tampa Bays QB Winston and his top tier array of wide receivers, including super star Mike Evans get a jump on the Chiefs, and for this contest to be surprisingly close. With that said, take the points. 

KC is 4-9 ATS L/13 vs NFC South opponents including 0-3 ATS following a win. TAMPA BAY is 10-2 ATS L/12 in road games after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games. Interesting side note shows that TB has not lost to the Chiefs in 24 seasons, going a perfect 4-0 SU. Final note: KC is 0-10 ATS L/10 before facing Denver.

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The Cowboys (8-1) are riding an NFL-best eight-game winning streak but according to my own power rankings  are getting far to much respect here vs the best defense in the NFL.  I expect new No.1 QB Prescott will struggle this week, because of the Ravens ability to control play option, thanks to  the Ravens top tier  defensive line, which is allowing just 71.3 yards per game via the run , also best in the NFL. It must be noted that the Cowboys are the only team in the NFL that does not have a victory against the Ravens, losing each of the last four confrontations. NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Baltimore- after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning record playing another winning team in the second half of the season are a bankroll expanding 35-12 ATS for a 75% conversion rate on the line. Note: Baltimore has not lost by more than 7 points this season. HC Garrett is 4-17 ATS L/21 in home games vs. lower tier passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse.

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The Carolina Panthers are frustrated, after losing 20-17 against KC this past Sunday, despite of a DD lead entering the last quarter of play. Now with revenge on board for a 41-38 loss to the New Orleans Saints earlier this season, and a need for redemption for last weeks ugly loss hanging over their heads, you can bet we will see Carolina at their best. 

NFL Favorites like the Panthers - revenging a close loss by 7 points or less to opponent, off an upset loss as a favorite are a bankroll expanding 27-6 ATS for a 82% conversion rate on the line.

CAROLINA is 6-0 ATS L/6 in home games versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game in the second half of the season and 18-4 ATS  L/22 in home games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 375 or more  yards/game, CAROLINA is 35-11 ATS  revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points and HC Riveria has covered 12 of his L/15 vs the same peremiters .

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The Patriots are 7-1 with a three-game lead in the AFC East and the favorites to come out of the AFC. The Seahawks, 5-2-1 and atop the NFC West, are always a factor in the NFL race for a Super Bowl championship. Both have top tier coaches, with Belichick and Carroll. One thing for sure is, that Caroll looks at this as an opportunity for redemption after blowing a Big lead in Super Bowl 49. I expect a tight affair with the points proving to be golden.


SEATTLE is 13-4 ATS L/17 in the second half of the season over the last few seasons.Carroll is 6-0 ATS L/6 in road games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/att! Carroll is also 17-3 ATS versus defenses - allowing more than 350 yards/game in the second half of the season.

The Seahawks are 14-0 ATS/13-1 SU off any game in which their completion percentage was at least ten percentage points high than their season-to-date average. the one SU loss came by just 2 points. 

Road teams like Seattle - in a game involving two excellent passing teams (7.3 PYA or more yards), after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 35-15 ATS for a 70% conversion rate. 

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The Panthers have won two games in a row since starting the season with only one victory across their first six games. Meanwhile, The Panthers (3-5) are coming off victories against Arizona and the Los Angeles Rams (3-5). But I myself still see alot of problems with Carolina's overall flow this season, espeially QB Newton,  and believe that they may actually end up on the wrong side of the scoreboard this week, vs a very opportunistic KC defense  that can  gain control of the line of scrimmage. HC Rivera said the Panthers appeared to be a fatigued team, something he attributed to coming off the West Coast trip and this factor Im betting puts them at a disadvantage today.  Note: KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS L/6 in road games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game like the Panthers. Chiefs are also 10-0 ATS/U L/10 when visiting a non-divisional opponent with fewer wins.

Key Injury update: [QB] 11/07/2016 - Alex Smith is upgraded to probable Sunday vs. Carolina.

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The Bears enter this game vs TB well rested  after a 13-day break. Chicago saw starting quarterback Jay Cutler return for its last game, a surprise Monday night win against the Minnesota Vikings. The team after going through a rash of injuries is healing with more key bodies.The Bucs' defense has allowed a combined 1,087 yards of total offense and 73 points in the last two losses  and while Chicago has not been explosive on offense this season, I expect they may have one of their best efforts of the season this Sunday, vs this swiss cheese TB defense.  TAMPA BAY is 3-11 ATS L/14  in home games against conference opponents.

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Everyone loves and underdog and side on the rise like the Oakland Raiders , especially when playing against a defending Super Bowl Champion. The Raiders , thanks to some luck and the arm of star QB Carr have been rolling. However, with expectations so high, Im actually expecting gridiron karma to catchup with the Black and Silver in the Black-hole this Sunday after winning despite of a record 23 penalties. The Raiders are 0-7 ATS L/7 off back to back away games, and 3-13 ATS off back to back wins. Meanwhile, the Broncos will be wide awake this week with the media casting the Raiders as upset candidates in this spot. Denver has won 9 straight in this series, and 18-4 ATS on the road vs the AFC West and a perfect 12-0 ATS vs above .500 or more side. 

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The Tennessee Titans are coming off a spirited home win, but they have not dealt well with success in the past as is evident by going 1-7 ATS L/8 as an underdog off a win. The T Titans a have also lost 14 of their L/18 away games and and failed to cover 13 of them scoring an average of just 17.7 ppg in the process. Tennessee is also 0-8-1 ATS L/9 in this series and 0-5 SU/ATS at San Diego. Meanwhile, the Chargers have over -powered AFC South opponents in the past going 14-2 SU at home and 15-1 ATS. It must also be noted Tennessee has been unable to take advantage of bad defensive teams like the Chargers in the past failing to cover 17 of their L/20 opportunities if that side allowed an average of 350 plus yards per tilt. 

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The San Francisco 49ers are desperate and looking to end a six-game straight up and against the spread losing streak Sunday afternoon when they take on Drew Brees and the surging New Orleans Saints at Levi's Stadium. New Orleans is 3-1 SU in its past four games but are only a  road favorite for just the second time since Week 16 of the 2014 season. The  caveat comes via the Saints ,  2-9 ATS L/11 record as away chalk ,  and  1-8 ATS mark  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5. The Saints  have also had series problems vs the 49ers failing to cover 5 straight meetings.  Meanwhile,  the Niners are off a bye week, and will be fresh for this tilt. Also despite of Drew Brees and company areial exploits of late, they do face a SF pass Defense, that has been in great form this season, allowing just 222 yards per game which ranks them 7th in the league. Bottom line: What Im betting happens today is that   SF will take advantage of the  Saints  29th  ranked   pass D that has allowed 286.7 ypg, and out enough points on the board to make this a scarey road adventure for the more often than not inconsistent Saints . Yes folks the Niners  have the ability to  keep the Saints guessing by opening the lanes up  thanks to the expected  addition of now healthy RB Carlos Hyde who has 6 rushing TDs so far this season in limited action.

 From a league wide perspective, NFL teams Underdogs or pick like SF - after 6 or more consecutive losses, in the second half of the season are a long term good bet as is evident by a 62% ATS conversion rate using extensive sample size of 216 games.

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The Jets look to be ressurected from the dead, after winning their L/2 SU/ATS. Meanwhile, the Fins are also winning and took back to back wins. However, the Fish don;t seem to deal well with success going 0-9 ATS as hosts of consecutive wins vs a division opponent coming off a victory and 0-5 ATS L/5 in this series. Finally the Jets are 22-4 ATS as divison dogs against opponents off a ATS win, which includes a sparkling 15-0 ATS mark as 3.5 or more  point pups. From  aleague wide NFL perspective Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Miami - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are just 26-64 ATS .

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Although the Vikings defense appears to have a decisive edge against the Bears offense, the same does not hold true on the opposite side of the ball. Minnesota is No. 31 in total offense with 299.2 yards per game, and Chicago is No. 12 in total defense with 350.4 yards allowed per game. According to my own data this game should me much closerthan the linesmakers estimate, and I will not be surprised if the Bad News Bears, give causaul NFL watchers some surprising headlines come Tuesday morning. The Vikings are  8-22 ATS L/30 in road games vs. poor offensive teams - scoring 17 or less points/game.CHICAGO is 6-0 ATS L/6 after 3 or more consecutive losses. 

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Green Bay Packers Aaron Rogers broke the 300 yard plaeau last time out after 15 straight games and looks to be back in tune ,The Packers offense piled up 406 yards and controlling the ball for almost 40 minutes against Chicago.Meanwhile, Atlanta's defense ranks 27th in scoring, 26th in yards allowed and 31st in passing yards allowed.Matt Ryan has failed to cover 5 straight vs NFC North opponents. Last year HC Quinn and company started out 5-0 before finsihing 3-8 run and after back to back losses it loooks like the Falcons are headed in that direction again. after a 4-1 start

.ATLANTA is 0-6 ATS L/6 in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. ATLANTA is 1-10 ATS L/10 as a favorite. 

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The Jaguars are allowing 27 points per game, putting pressure on an offense that hasn't been able to keep pace and things don't look to get much better vs a Tennessee side with a top tier QB Marcus Mariota at the heelm of the offense. Tennessee blew a chance to make it 3 straight wins last week vs Indianapolis, but will primed for redemption tonight. I know the Titans have some nasty ATS numbers in their data base, but all good and bad numbers usually revert back to their norms, so those ATS numbers don't bother me when looking at handicapping this tilt. The Titans are however, 6-1 ATS L/7 Thursday night games and a perfect 5-0 ATS off a loss. 

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Earlier this month, the Atlanta Falcons battled last season's Super Bowl teams in back-to-back weeks and emerged with two victories and are a early season surprise. My feeling is that the Falcons are over rated, yes improved, but over rated especially considering todays line. Atlanta is tied for 26th in pass defense, yielding 285.3 yards per game, and will have their hand full with the Chargers Drew Brees and company. Yes, Matt Ryan the Atlanta Falcons QB is a stud, but its not like he has not crashed and burned before, when many least expect it. I also know, that Atlanta has not faired well recently vs bad defenses, 3-11 ATS L/14 vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons. 
The average score was ATLANTA 18.5, OPPONENT 21.3 - ( SAN DIEGO is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game and is 6-0 ATS L/6 as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. ATLANTA is 1-9 ATS L/10 as a favorite and 2-15 ATS L/17 in home games after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread. 

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TB beat Carolina last week 17-14 as 6 point dogs. It must than be noted Any team in the NFL - off a win over a division rival as an underdog of 6 or more point like TB are 6-26 ATS.TAMPA BAY is 2-12 ATS L/14 off a win over a division rival as an underdog of 6 or more point . The 49ers have won 6 of the L/7 here in SF SU. 

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Kansas City has proven to be wildly inconsistent so far this season. Last week they came off a bye and owned the Oakland Raiders in a lopsided 16 point win. Just a couple of weeks ago the Chiefs are got clobbered by the Pittsburgh Steelers losing by 29 points. KC now goes against a New Orleans team that is the league's top passing unit, with an average of 335.4 yards per game from Brees to a top tier of  receivers, led by Brandin Cooks, Willie Snead and rookie Michael Thomas.The Saints have won two straight games and  are averaging 413.4 yards per game and rank No. 2 in the league behind only Atlanta. With KCs d, with alot of banged up players, they look vulnerable.  

From a league wide perspective: Home teams like KC - a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are just 36-71 ATS.NEW ORLEANS is 11-3 ATS L/14 as an underdog.

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