Seattle looked amazing last week and really exploded in their win vs Atlanta. But it must be noted that HC Carrol  is is just 0-4 ATS in his NFL career as a home favorite against AFC East foes when  they are off a victory. Meanwhile, Belichick is 22-9 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of NEW ENGLAND and must not be disrespected here this week. 

SEATTLE is 8-19 ATS  off an upset win by 10 points or more as an underdog since 1992. Seattle is 1-4 ATS L/5 at home in this series as favs. 

NFL Home favorites (SEATTLE) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 24 or more points/game, after scoring 30 points or more last game are 2-24 ATS L/37 seasons for a 92% go against conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the New England Patriots to cover

The Vikings lost last week and now they are in a bounce back mode. It must be noted that the Minnesota Vikings are 19-3-1 ATS in games off a loss under HC Mike Zimmer when facing non-division opposition. This is two good of a team to lay down again this week and get my support getting points vs a good but slightly over rated Colts team. 

 Zimmer is 30-19 ATS  in games where the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of MINNESOTA.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (MINNESOTA) - poor defense from last season - allowed 335 or more total yards/game, after allowing 450 or more total yards in their previous game are 24-3 ATS L/37 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Minnesota to cover 

 QB Matt Ryan played a great game last despite of his team losing to Seattle,. He connected on 37-of 54 for 450 yards and two TDs  and according to my O-line/QB vs D-line/secondary power rankings matches ups  well in this matchup vs Dallas.  

Dallas’ 0-7 ATS  as non-division home chalk of 7 or less. points . 

NFL Road underdogs or pick (ATLANTA) - excellent passing team from last season - averaged 275 or more passing yards/game, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 21-3 ATS L/37 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Atlanta to cover 

The Titans reached the AFC championship game last season thanks to a second-half surge that followed a shutout loss in Denver in which coach Mike Vrabel benched Marcus Mariota for Ryan Tannehill. For whatever reason it seems that this Titans franchise has not faired well vs the Broncos and have now lost the last 4  road meetings in this series straight up dating back to 1992. 

Note: the key to the Titans offence is Derrick Henry who was the NFL's rushing leader last season with 1,540 yards, but he has struggled in two games against Denver. Henry ran 12 times for 42 yards backing up DeMarco Murray as a rookie in a Titans' win on Dec. 11, 2016, and he was held to 28 yards on 15 rushes in a 16-0 loss in Denver last October. That easily was Henry's worst game last season. I know the Titans now want payback, but it will not come easily vs a side that maybe vastly under rated by the linesmakers here tonight with QB Drew Lock under center. 

Remember when this line opened the Broncos were 3 point favs and now its turned all the way around to Tennessee being favored. Just to much of swing in my humble opinion and now Im taking the Broncos plus the points.

Denver to cover 

The Cowboys are a popular pick to be an immediate Super Bowl contender under McCarthy, with quarterback Dak Prescott and running back Ezekiel Elliott leading an offense that was one of the NFL's best last season and now tonight in this big Sunday nighter Im betting they get the road win. Rams are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog.  

Play on Dallas to cover 

SF is a fine team, but could easily be in hangover mode here after last seasons Super Bowl loss. It must be noted the defending Super Bowl loser in Game One of the season as a dog or favorite of 8 or less points if they are facing a division opponent are 0-10 ATS L/32 seasons. Also Arizona has played the 49ers tough of late covering the last 3 meetings and are much improved side. Once again its important to note that Game One division underdogs who won eight or fewer games last season are 39-10-1 ATS. 

Play on Arizona to cover 

In each of  HC Arians his past 11 seasons  , his teams have ranked in the Top Ten passing attacks in football , and now with Future Hall of Famer Tom Brady under center that will happen again . Today against a New Orleans side that has a tendency of starting slow as is evident by a 0-6 ATS first game record the L/6 years I look for Brady and the Bucs offence to be fluent enough to cover vs another  future Hall of Fame QB Drew Brees . Note: Brady is 36-16-1 ATS NFL career mark as an underdog and gets my support getting points in this key spot play.

Tampa Bay to cover 

“It’s very challenging to prepare for a Gregg Williams defense because of just all the things that he has,” Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll said. “Not just the different calls but the different packages that he has with his players.”

This statement is key to how Im looking at this game, which makes getting points according to my projections an important factor. 

Jets’ own a money making  16-5-2 ATS record in road openers, including 5-0 ATS when seeking revenge in a division tilt.

Jets QB Josh Allen  is  3-5 ATS in his career  as a home favorite in the NFL action, and is getting far to much respect here on this line.

NY Jets to cover 

SF HC Shanahan,  has gone 21-5 . SU with  Jimmy Garoppolo at QB , and overall the 49ers have  the edge in rush offense, rush defense and pass defense. I know the best player on the field is considered to be young QB super star Patrick Mahomes, but the complete package is on the side he is facing today. Considering the Chiefs were down by two TDs to the Pats , and were down 24-0 to the Texans, and 10-0 to the Titans, the feeling here for me here is, that as explosive as the Chiefs are there karmic regression is coming and their consistent flirting with disaster is essentially going to bite them on the proverbial butts vs a side that if in the lead will grind them into the ground via a concerted ground attack. All in all Im all in here on the 49ers being this years super bowl champs. 

Play on the SF 49ers to cover 

After being embarrassed by a 37-8 count by the SF 49ers back in November, Im betting the Packers learned a great deal from thier humiliation and will be prepared to bounce back here and make a game of this behind a defence that prior to win vs Seattle last week had held their L/5 regular season opponents to an average of 14.2 ppg. 

The Packers  head coach Matt LaFleur, has been a bankroll expanding  11-6 ATS (24.9% ROI), as an  underdog this season while the 49ers  have seen underdogs cash at a 11-5-1 ATS clip against them this season.  LaFleur was the offensive coordinator for Shannahan on three separate teams in his career and knows him as well or better than anyone in football. 

Green Bay to cover 

We all know how explosive the Chiefs offence is , but Im sure the Titans plan is to try to keep QB Patrick Mahomes off the field as much as possible by pounding the rock on the ground via    Derrick Henry . It must be noted that the Titans offense has averaged 198 rushing yards per game with him hugging the ball  over his last 8 games (5.9 yards per carry) . Odds are highly likely that more success is on board this Sunday vs a Chiefs D, that has   allowed 4.9 yards per carry and were ranked  29th in defensive rushing DVOA.   

TENNESSEE is 6-0 ATS  in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons.

Reid is 4-13 ATS  in home games against AFC South division opponents in all games he has coached since 1999.

Teams like the Titans  off breaking the 100-yard plateau on the ground,   29-16 SU and 31-13-1 ATS in the followup and  are a bankroll expanding  20-5 ATS  for their backers against opposition  coming off a  big double-digit win like the Chiefs achieved . Also, underdogs +7  or more have gone 37-26-1 (59%) against the spread in the playoffs, including 9-2 ATS in conference championships or later. Add to that NFL teams who are off  scoring 40 or more points in a playoff game like KC are  1-14-1 ATS L/15 as chalk dating back 24 seasons. 

Play on the Tennessee Titans to cover 

All season long the Ravens have had the pedal to the metal.All season long  I could not  get the feeling out of my head, that they would eventually run out of gas before hitting the proverbial finish line. So here they are in their first play off game of the season , as  a huge public favorite , going up against a upstart group Tennessee group  fresh off a upset of the New England Pats.

Bottom line :The Titans  with momentum and confidence on their sides. and a physical defense and  strong running game are a team built to compete with a side like the Ravens. It must also be noted that since QB  Ryan Tannehill became the starter, the Titans are 7-3-1 ATS for an impressive 35.4% ROI.

But about football god, QB Lamar Jackson, he surely can make this a cake walk. I say hold your horses, on that concept, as road underdogs are 8-3 ATS for a 41% Return on Investment  against the Ravens in Jackson’s starts under center. 

Play on the Titans to cover 

 I have said all season long, that the Vikings were going to be a dark horse favorite of mine entering the play offs, because of their hardcore work ethic, and bruising defense, and ability to play up to opponents and hand out a smash mouth type of performance. I know the public just loves SFs super star QB Jimmy G, but like the old saying goes defense travels well, and here today against a 49ers side, that not seen play off football for a while, the wheels may come off at the worst possible time. Look for QB Cousins of the Vikings to do just enough to help us get the cover today. 

Dating back 16 seasons  Divisional Round road underdogs are 36-24-1 ATS  for a 16.3% Return on investment . 

Minnesota s HC  Mike Zimmer dating back 5 seasons has been a ATM for  Vikings betting backers  when going up against  non-divisional  foes recording a massive bankroll expanding  44-19-1 ATS  record for a 35.4% ROI. 

NFL  Home teams (SAN FRANCISCO) - off a road win against a division rival, a top-level team (75% or more ) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season are 7-26 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover 

NFC Wild Card Playoffs

I firmly believe that the Vikings are dark horse playoff contenders, and Im will to put my money where my mouth his here today vs the mighty Saints. The big concern with New Orleans is their D, and despite of their good over lying numbers, the metrics tell a different story, as they have been torched for 28 or more more points in 3 of their L/6 games. 

Vikings HC Mike Zimmer, responds owns a  43-18-2 ATS career record  in non-division tilts, including 18-3-1 ATS when coming off a loss which they did in their last game of the regular season. The Vikings are also  13-0 ATS L/13 covering my more than 12 ppg as a dog when their opponent is off two double-digit win and they are not off a double-digit win.

NEW ORLEANS is 0-7 ATS in home games off a division game over the last 3 seasons.

MINNESOTA is 19-9 ATS  in dome games over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW ORLEANS) - after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 13-35 ATS L5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home teams (NEW ORLEANS) - off a road win against a division rival, a top-level team (75% or better) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season are 7-25 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Minnesota to cover 

The Pats may not be a real Super Bowl contender this season, and Tom Brady may have lost a few steps as Father Time catches up to him . However, this experienced New England team is more than capable of knocking off a Tennessee team that did not play against the Pats this season, and have no real gauge as to handle their attack or perceived weaknesses, other than film and scouting reports. The same can be said for Beliichik and company, but it must noted that the Pats are 17-1 SU in playoff games behind Bill Belichick in games against opponents they did not face during the regular season. It must also be noted that QB Ryan Tannehill has no experience in the play offs while, Tom Brady is the god of play off football, and is always one patented series of plays away from a key TD,making the Pats the side to back today. Hey guys I know recency bias comes into play here as NE looks horrendous last week vs Miami. However, as outlandish as it might sound I would not  be surprised if Bellichick and company really wanted to win last week as badly as many might have thought and instead were playing possum. I know , this sounds like a whacky conspiracy theory , but this HC is a football and mad genius like no other  , and who. knows where his degenerate thoughts go. He's proven he is not beyond doing anything to win games and this might be his physiological peace   de resistance . Time will tell, but Im betting on the Pats to advance and more importantly cover in a short line.  

The Titans are 2-22 ATS L/24 when they are off a win and they are facing a team allowed more than 370 total yards in their last game.

NEW ENGLAND is 31-10 ATS  when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) in the second half of the season since 1992.

NEW ENGLAND is 20-8 ATS  in home games against AFC South division opponents since 1992.

Play on the NE Pats 

Everyone just loves the Saints. After all they are exciting to watch, but it must be noted that they are  just 2-5 ITS the last seven games since their bye week and have some flaws. The Saints are also just 1-7 ATS K/8  as a favorite of 13 points  or more vs sub .500 opposition, and just 4-15 ATS as double-digit favourite  in division tilts . I know Carolina looked terrible last week in. a loss , but are a solid 7-0 ATS at home after scoring less than 7 points last time out. Im betting they give the Saints a fight this week and get us the cover. 

CAROLINA is 9-1 ATS as a home underdog of 7.5 to 14 points since 1992.

NFL Underdogs or pick (CAROLINA) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 49 or more points total in their last seven games are 28-7 ATS L/5 37 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Carolina to cover 

New England will grab the No. 2 AFC seed with a victory today vs  the  visiting Miami Dolphins.The Patriots beat the Dolphins 43-0 on Sept. 15,  proving how well they matchup against the Fins.  Im expecting the Pats to be ready to hammer the Fins here again today as they need a win here and a tune up for the play offs at the same time. 

NFL team (MIAMI) - average offensive team (4.9 to 5.4 YPP) against a good defense (4.5 to 4.9 YPP) after 8+ games, after allowing 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are just 2-23 ATS L/37 seasons for a go against 92% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on New England to cover 

This game means nothing for both sides, with the Chargers going golfing soon, and the Chiefs grabbing the No.2 seed in the AFC for the play offs. Expect a lot of wind here today in Arrowhead, and lower scoring game that impacts what will be a closer than anticipated matchup and cover by the road dog. Hey I know how ugly the Chargers looked las time out but they are 10-1 ATS  off SU favourite  loss 7  pts or more  vs .500  or better opposition. Note:Things have been less rosy at Arrowhead Stadium, which is typically considered one of the toughest environments in the NFL. The Chief  lost three consecutive games  to the Colts, Texans and Packers.

NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS CITY) - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games are 7-29 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Chargers to cover 

 Chicago is a physical team that matches up well vs the explosive Chiefs. Note: Chicago is 19-3 ATS with a .500 or less record when listed  as a home dog against the AFC opposition. 

Note: QB Patrick Mahomes should feel rushed today which will make for a nightmare for the Chiefs offensive flow. This will be the  first time the Kansas City Chiefs will go against super star  Khalil Mack since he was traded.  Mack used to be an Oakland Raider and totaled five and a half sacks against the Chiefs during his four year run in the AFC West. 

CHICAGO is 6-0 ATS in home games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons

NFL Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS CITY) - quick starting offensive team - scoring 14+ PPG in the first half, after allowing 14 points or less last game are 9-31 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Chicago Bears to cover 

The Cards won last week vs the Browns, but this week Im betting they have their butts handed to them vs a explosive Seattle team that can very much take advantage of the Cards very porous defence, that allows, an average of 28.4 ppg on the road this season. Note: Carroll is 23-7 ATS  versus poor defensive teams - allowing 350 or more yards/game in the second half of the season as the coach of SEATTLE with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.1 ppg. Carroll is 7-0 ATS in home games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing 260 or more passing yards/game after 8+ games as the coach of SEATTLE with the average ppg diff clicking in at +17.6 ppg.

The Cardinals are 0-17 SU/ATS L/17 on the road off a game as a home dog in which their scoring output increased by more than ten points over the game before.

NFL Road teams (ARIZONA) - revenging a loss against opponent by 14 points or more, after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points are 6-24 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors. ( Seattle beat Arizona back in Sept on the road by a lopsided 27-10 count- Rinse and repeat here today)

Play on the Seattle Seahawks to cover 

Dak Prescott is banged up with a sore shoulder, a finger injury on his throwing hand, and took limited snaps in practice.Even with nagging - or worse - injuries, Cowboys owner Jerry Jones expects Prescott to be in "top form" against Philadelphia and I agree with the Boyz owner on this one, as its not hard to look good vs a consistently under performing Philadelphia D.There are jobs and reputations on the line, as well: Dallas coach Jason Garrett could save his job with a division title and a strong playoff run. DALLAS is 9-1 ATS  versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Dallas to cover 

The Jaguars have been completely stagnant of late, and are not getting much respect at all and they really don't deserve it , but neither does Atlanta and in no way according to my power rankings deserve to be a 7 point or more favourite vs anyone in this league including the lowly Jags. From a long term trends perspective it must be noted that  NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (JACKSONVILLE) - bad team - outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are a long term good bet going 120-64 ATS L/36 seasons for a solid 65% conversion rate for their betting backers. 

ATLANTA is 0-7 ATS when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons and  is 0-7 ATS  in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.  

The Atlanta Falcons are 1-13 SU and 0-14 ATS in their last fourteen games against AFC opponents.

Advantage Jacksonville getting points 

New Orleans took part in a run and gun dog fight last week vs San Francisco that they lost and now Im betting they will be in a bit of emotional let down state and due for regression. Actually the Saints have lost the stats battles in 4 of their L/5 since Drew Bree's returned from injury, and definitely have some defensive issues at the worst possible time. Tonight they go against a motivated and desperate Indy side looking for a play off spot , that has the ability to score in bunches  which makes getting points a viable investment option with he visiting underdog.  Note: New Orleans is just 0-7 ATS L/7 when coming off a home loss and laying more than 7 points. 

INDIANAPOLIS is 10-2 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game over the last 3 seasons.NEW ORLEANS is 0-7 ATS in home games after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons.

Indianapolis is 9-0 ATS  L/9 against .500 or better  NFC opposition. Saints are 0-6 ATS L/6  as non-conference home favorite of more than 4 points and 1-10 ATS at home taking on  AFC  foes. 

NFL Road underdogs or pick (INDIANAPOLIS) - off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less, in the last 4 weeks of the regular season are 24-5 ATS L/36 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Indy Colts to cover 

The Bills are bruised and battered after a very physical game against the Baltimore Ravens last week, and Im betting they won't have enough left in the tank to significantly compete here against a another smash mouth type of team in Pittsburgh. 

Pittsburgh has won 6 of the L/7 meetings here at home in this series and get the nod again. 

The Bills are 0-15-1 ATS /0-16 SU on grass vs a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road with the average ppg diff clicking in at - 20.7 ppg. 

NFL Road teams (BUFFALO) - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 265-375 ATS dating back 37 seasons for a go against 59% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Pittsburgh to cover 

The Chargers are starting to wake up from a season long slumber and are  off a dominating 45-10 win last week vs the Jacksonville Jaguars. Meanwhile,  visiting Minnesota despite of being consistent on the in the W/L column have failed to cover 5 of their L/6 overall and are not living up to the linesmakers expectations and vulnerable here to a desperate team with a chip on their shoulders. 

The Chargers are 15-0 ATS /12-3 SU L/15 as a dog when they are off a win as a favorite and they are averaging more than 27 points per game over their last three games.

MINNESOTA is 5-18 ATS L/23 in road games off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite.

Chargers are 7-2-1 ATS in their past 10 as underdogs. The home team has won the past five in the series.

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CHARGERS) - after 4 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed no turnovers are 40-15 ATS L/36 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Chargers to cover 

The Browns were  recently starting to turn a corner towards respectability . But that ended last week when despite of winning  they lost the stats battle to Cincinnati by more than 188 yards. That is truly unacceptable, and now the inconsistent Browns  travel out west to play a under rated Arizona team with a good looking young QB in Murray under centre. The kicker is that the Browns are 3 point road favs, which is not an optimal line to cover for this type of undisciplined  unorganized  team that takes a boatload full of penalties on a weekly basis . Note: The Browns are 0-4 ATS/SU  L/4 on the road.

  The Cardinals are 21-0 ATS /19-2 SU at home when their line is between a three-point favorite and a five-point dog inclusive when they suffered a positive turnover margin in each of their last two games and they did not have more than 31 minutes of possession time in their last game.

The Cardinals are 17-4 SU and 20-0-1 ATS as hosts  off a non-division tilt when facing an opponent coming off a win of 8 or more points.

The Cardinals are 15-0 ATS/SU on grass off a loss by more than a field goal when the line is within three of pick and they suffered a positive turnover margin in each of their last two games.

Play on the Arizona Cardinals to cover

Green Bay Packers are very over rated in their current form even though they hold down the No. 2 playoff seed in the NFC.  Believe it or not the Packers have  lost the stats battles in 4 of their L/5 games and now go against a Chicago side that has won 4 of their L/5 and coming into their own now as they season winds down.

 Earlier this season the Bears lost to the Packers by a 10-3 count,(despite of winning the stats battle) but now in revenge mode in their best form this season, Im betting on the Bears to bring home the cash as underdogs.   The Bears are 5-0 SUATS with a winning record in division games with  QB Mitchell Trubisky under center.

NFLvUnderdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CHICAGO) - revenging a same season loss against opponent, off a home win are 37-15 ATS L/10 seasons for a  71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Chicago Bears to cover 

Seahawks lost RB Rashaad Penny for the season with a knee injury suffered in last week’s defeat, and will not have the same offensive flow without him in the lineup. Considering the Seahawks D, is ranked No. 26 in the league in overall  there could easily be issues fr them covering today. 

CAROLINA is 21-9 ATS in home games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 375 or more  yards/game. 

The Panthers are 12-0 ATS L/12  as a dog off a road SU and ATS loss.

Play on Carolina to cover 

The Philadelphia Eagles  are now desperate to stop a three-game losing streak  vs a  quarterback in Eli Manning that  hasn't played in three months and hasn't defeated them in three years.Manning is 10-20 SU against Philadelphia in his career and the Eagles have now won 9 of the  L/10 meetings overall, and are 8-1 ATS L/9 on Mondays at home vs division opposition. The Eagles are not only in need of  a win here but they are in redemption mode for a embarrassing  37-31 loss to Miami last time out, despite of previously  holding opponents to 17 points or less in four straight games and allowing fewer than 225 yards passing in five consecutive games. Falling asleep at the proverbial wheel vs a side that they should have handily beaten was almost unforgivable and the entire Eagles team should be motivated in this national spot light affair. 

Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover 

The Seahawks  are off. s hard fought win vs Minnesota this past Monday night and are currently the No. 2 overall seed in the NFC .and garnering alot public support thanks to recency bias   Meanwhile, the LA Rams look to now awoken from their mid season slumber behind the reenergized QB Jared Goff who  threw for 424 yards in last week’s 34-7 beat down at Arizona in which the Rams tough D held the Cardinals to a season-low 198 yards of offense.  I know the Rams have not looked particularly consistent this season but the numbers tell a different story as they  have won the stats battles in 10 of their L/12 games this season.  When these lines opened over the summer   the books posted the Rams as 7.5 point chalk, and now with the line divergence this big their is obvious value with the Rams here playing at home vs a Seattle side that will have issues bringing the same energy to this game as they did vs the Vikings last week. 

 LA RAMS are 6-0 ATS  after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Road favorites (SEATTLE) - good rushing team - averaging 130 or more rushing yards/game, after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game are 82-135 ATS L/36 seasons for a long term go against 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Rams to cover

Tennessee took part in a hard fought affair last week against Indianapolis which resulted in a  away win thanks to a great forth quarter . However, the Titans are being a little over rated because of recency bias,  as is evident by having lost 8 of 12 stats battles  and have  given  up season- high yards in two of its last three games . With that said, Tennessee looks vulnerable here in what looks a classic letdown situation on the road.  Which coincindently their second straight road game and never an easy situation for any NFL team . I know the Raiders after 3 straight wins have looked bad in two straight losses , but they are better team than those down efforts and Im betting on a bounce back work order today vs a over rated side.

Tennessee  as a non-division favorite of more than 2 points, are  0-10-1 ATS l/11 against opponents  coming off a loss.

NFL  team (OAKLAND) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games are 34-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rates.

Play on Oakland to cover 

The Chargers and the Jaguars are both having seasons to forget, and both enter this game desperate for a win. The Chargers are off a loss to the Denver Broncos and  the Jags are off a ugly DD loss to the TB Bucs by a 28-11 count. Free agent  QB Nick Foles just can't get it done, for the Jags, and young QB Minshew is expected to start. It must be noted that the Jags incumbent QB is  4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in his NFL career against opponents  coming off a loss like the Bolts. My projections estimate that Jacksonville plays better with their young gun under center and have more flow to their games, and with hom expected to start there is value taking points. 

The Chargers are 2-7-1 ATS L/10 as a favorite.

NFL Favorites (LA CHARGERS) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing 1 or less turnovers/game, after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 9-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (JACKSONVILLE) - average rushing team (95-125 RY/game) against a team with an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/G), after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game are 47-20 L/36 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Jacksonville Jaguars to cover 

Its Jimmy G vs Drew Bree's this Sunday in the Bayou. I know the public loves the 49ers a team that moved into the upper echelons of the NFL, but  the Saints have thrived in this spot in the past and are 13-1 SU and 14-0 ATS L/14 record at home versus .800- plus opposition. My own projections make the Saints the superior side as hosts and they get my support in this spot. 

NFL Home teams  (NEW ORLEANS) - off 3 straight wins against division rivals, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 27-1 SU L/ 36 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +13.3 ppg. 

NFL Favorites (NEW ORLEANS) - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games are 29-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate.

Play on New Orleans Saints to cover 

 Indianapolis is off a 31-17 loss to the Titans last week which most believe will have them in a letdown spot this Sunday, but Im betting on the opposite reaction via a tough as nails group that will want redemption immediately.  Note:  The Colts are 14-0 ATS  L/14 when they are off a double-digit ATS loss and they are facing a non-divisional opponent that has forced an average of fewer than five turnovers per game like the Buccaneers. The recency bias of Buccaneers win vs Jacksonville last week, and the Colts loss has a bad line attached to this tilt. In my betting opinion this inconsistent Buccaneers team is being over rated in a big way. 
  
 The  Bucaneers  are 0-16 ATS when they are not a FG-plus dog and they are off a win as a favorite in which they never trailed and converted four-plus third downs.  

INDIANAPOLIS is 10-2 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game over the last 3 seasons

TAMPA BAY is 4-14 L/18  ATS against AFC South division opponents .

The Colts are 6-1 SU L/7 overall in this series and 3-1 SUL/4 visits to TB. 

NFL Home favorites (TAMPA BAY) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% in the second half of the season are 8-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against  78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Indianapolis Colts to cover 

Dallas is. strange team, as they are only 6-6 on the season, but rank high in both offence and defensive numbers, and have out-gained all their opponents but one this season. This team just does not know how to win consistently and can't be trusted to come out here and perform at a high level as road chalk vs a Bears team finally starting to up trend with 3 wins in their L/4 games. Value resides with the home dog. 

Cowboys are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 Thursday games.Cowboys are 5-12-2 ATS in their last 19 games in Week 14.

Garrett is 8-18 ATS  versus poor rushing teams - averaging 90 or less rushing yards/game as the coach of DALLAS.

Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in December.

NFL Favorites (DALLAS) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing 1 or less turnovers/game, after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 9-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Chicago Bears to cover 

Scoring has been a big an issue for New England of late, and I personally believe Tom Brady is starting to show regression with age as his 79.3 passer rating over the last 3 games gives testament to. Yes, the D, remains solid and the future HOF has as usual given the Pats just enough omph to get them Ws, However, tonight against young gun QB Deshaun Watson who is  10-4-1 ATS overall as a dog, including 8-2 ATS as a dog of more then 2 points  in his career , the Pats are in trouble.  

NFL Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW ENGLAND) - quick starting offensive team - scoring 14+ PPG in the first half, after allowing 14 points or less last game are 9-31 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW ENGLAND) - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games are 7-27 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Texans to cover

Two struggling teams go head to head here this week in the Mile High City.  With Father Time taking its toll on  QB Philip Rivers  the Chargers are no longer an optimal force and are getting to much respect here.Note: Rivers has thrown seven interceptions in his last two games, the worst slump of his 16-year career.

I know the Chargers are off a bye week but this has not been a recipe for success for them in a while as they are  1-8 ATS  L/9 with rest.   This is a bet against the Chargers and not really a bet for the Broncos. However, from a mathematical standpoint this is value line for a desperate home dog. Advantage Denver.

Play on Denver to cover 

The Rams were blasted by the Baltimore Ravens last Monday night and will come into this game against the Cardinals feeling downtrodden. Im sure the natural inclination of most bettors would be to back the Rams after that ugly effort but the Cardinals are no pushovers and just wont lie down and die . Take the points. 

LA RAMS are 5-17 ATS L/22  after being outgained by 200 or more total yds in their previous game.

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA RAMS) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning record on the season are 9-32 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Cardinals to cover 

The Titans  lost a  19-17 home game to the Colts during the 2nd week of the season.  This return matchup  has big time play off implications attached to it for both clubs as they currently rank No. 8 (Indianapolis) and No.9 (Tennessee) in  playoff seeding. This will of course be a hard fought game, but Indianapolis has better overall numbers and are playing at home . The Colts have also owned this series covering 6 of the L/7 overall meetings.

INDIANAPOLIS is 8-1 ATS  when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.INDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons. 

TENNESSEE is 12-31 ATS revenging a home loss against opponent since 1992.

NFL Home favorites vs. the money line (INDIANAPOLIS) - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival, with a winning record in the second half of the season are 26-2 L/10 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at  +10.2 ppg.

Play on the Indianapolis Colts to cover

 Cincinnati  QB Andy Dalton  is expected to start for the Bengals this Sunday which will boost their chances at a cover and possible outright win vs a over rated NY Jets team that is getting to much respect  thanks to a recency bias based on a 3 game win streak .  It must be noted that NFL winless sides like Cincinnati  have covered 14 of 19 ATS during the second half of the season dating back 37 seasons when facing opposition coming off consecutive SUATS wins. Also Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton   as a non-division underdog is  7-1 ATS against AFC East opposition  coming off a victory, including 5-0 SUATS at home. Daltons is also  20-10-1 ATS in December in his NFL career, including 11-6 SU and 13-4 ATS versus non-AFC North opponents. 

NY JETS are 4-13 ATS L/17 in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread. 

NY JETS are 0-6 ATS in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 2 seasons.

 NFL team (CINCINNATI) - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (23-27 PPG) in the 2nd half of the season, after scoring 14 points or less in 2 straight games are 18-42 ATS L/37 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cincinnati Bengals to cover 

 Last weeks loss by  Philly to Seattle was nasty and the entire Eagles nation felt embarrassed as they lost 17-9 at home in inclement weather .  Quarterback Carson Wentz continued his upside down circus act by  being intercepted twice  and  tripping all over the place while giving up  two fumbles . It hard to want to back the Eagles after that disgraceful effort, but this team still has pride, and need redemption quickly if Pederson hopes to retain his  HC.job. Im betting on the Eagles coming out here and beating up on a Dolphins team that is still in tank mode. 

The Fins defense  is ranked 31st against the run (148.2 yards per game), 31st overall (400.9) and last in points allowed per game (31.5).

The  Eagles are 13-1 SU and 14-0 ATS away after scoring 10 or fewer points in its last game.  

Play on Philadelphia to cover 

A few weeks ago when these teams played the Bears squeaked by the Lions by a 20-13 score, now in revenge mode on their own home field Im betting on the Lions once again being competitive and getting us the cover . Yes,  I know Detroit lost a  19-16 decision on the road to the Washington Redskins, who came into the game an NFL-worst 1-9, but here at home they have an advantage vs a Bears side that is highly inconsistent. Once again , I also know the Bears have won 2 of their L/3, but who did those victories  come against .....the banged up Lions, and a 2-9 NY Giants team. Chicago is far from being a 3 point road favorite against anyone in this league, not even the slumping Lions. The the four other teams the Bears  beat this season are a combined 10-33-1. Call me crazy but Ill take the Lions on Turkey day to cover. 

CHICAGO is 1-8 ATS  in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 3 seasons. CHICAGO is 4-16 ATS  in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6 or more  yards/play in the second half of the season. CHICAGO is 8-22 ATS L/30 in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. in the second half of the season.

NFL Home teams (DETROIT) - revenging a road loss against opponent, off an upset loss as a road favorite are 86-43 ATS L/36 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Detroit to cover 

The public and their dogs are all over the red hot Baltimore Ravens, but the LA Rams are no pushovers and must be respected as home pups. Note: The Rams have out yarded all their opponents expect one this season. Baltimore has outscored their oppositon  127-40 in the last three games behind the legs and arm of LeMar Jackson, and now becasue of  recency bias we have value with the home side getting points. 
 

BALTIMORE is 6-17 ATS L/23 in road games after a win by 21 or more points. 

NFL Road favorites (BALTIMORE) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after a win by 10 or more points are 18-53 ATS L/10seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Rams to cover 

Both these teams are coming off victories against sub par teams. Oakland defeated the Cincinnati Bengals 17-10. New York smashed the Washington Redskins 34-17.

The Jets are now up trending in my power rankings and   are  coming off back-to-back wins and are now 3-0 ITS in their last three tilts overall and deserve our respect here as home dogs. With QB Darnold  in a flow of late a big day Im betting is at hand vs a . Raiders  side that are 21st in scoring defense and 25th in opponents’ yards per play.  I know the Jets dont inspire bettors, but in their current form I like their chances to cover vs a Raiders team that despite of some good outings are getting way to much love from the linesmakers here on a line that should be closer to a pickem.

 OAKLAND is 1-9 ATS  off a home win over the last 3 seasons.

Gruden is 3-19 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season in all games he has coached in his career.

OAKLAND is 11-27 ATS L/38 when playing against a lower tier  team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) in the second half of the season. 

NFL Road teams (OAKLAND) - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are just 264-374 ATS L/36 seasons for a go against 59% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Jets to cover 

 Philadelphia  enters this game downtrodden after blowing. a 10-0 lead and losing a  a  17-10 decision against New England last week . Carson Wentz the Eagles QB is down trending in my QB power rankings and from a visual standpoint is excruciating to watch under centre as he is currently not seeing the field well and wildly inaccurate when he thinks he ha a target. In the past when the Eagles  are coming off a  home loss  and than playing at home the week after, they are 1-10 SUATS the last eight campaigns    Meanwhile, Seattle is rested and off a bye week. and showing extreme confidence after back to back OT victories with the last one as a underdog.  It must be noted that the Seahawks  behind QB Russell Wilson. are  18-4-1 ATS as a dog when coming off a win. 

The  Seahawks  are 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS in their last ten away games vs NFC East . Seattle is 12-0 L/12 ATS as a regular season conference dog when coming off a SU/ATS win. 

SEATTLE is 10-2 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 3 seasons.

SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS  in road games after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.

Carroll is 25-8 ATS  in weeks 10 through 13 as the coach of SEATTLE.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (SEATTLE) - good offensive team - scoring 24 or more points/game, after a win by 3 or less points are 79-42 L/36 seasons for a long term 65% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Seattle to cover

According to my power rankings the Denver Broncos matchup well vs the Buffalo Bills. I know the Broncos (3-7) have their issues, particularly when it comes to fourth-quarter meltdowns. Denver has now blown four fourth-quarter leads, including last week's 27-23 loss at Minnesota, in which the Broncos became the first team in five years to squander a 20-point lead entering halftime. But what this team this Broncos team has been competitive and after last weeks embarrassing effort, Im looking for all hands on board this week, in a game where the team leaves everything on the field. Whether thats enough or not Im not sure, but what I do like is the number, and the Broncos ability to cover. 

BUFFALO is 12-27 ATS L/39 off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival ( Beat Miami last week by DDs)and have failed to cover 8 of their L/9 at home after playing the Fins. 

NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (DENVER) - after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, team with a losing record in the second half of the season are 37-12 ATS L/10 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road teams (DENVER) - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/G committed) vs a team with 1.25  or less TO/G forced after 8+ games, after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 30-9 ATS L/36 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Denver to cover 

There looks to me to be big trouble ahead for the Rams this Sunday after  they lost their starting center and a starting OL to injury in the Steelers’ game last week a 17-12 loss. With  QB Jared Goff looking like he has  lost his flow recently facing  Khalil Mack and the nasty Bears’ defensive line this week without key starters will be. a miserable task. Advantage Bears taking points. 

Rams have failed to cover 5 of their L/6 Sunday nighters. 

Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LA RAMS) - after going under the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 8-28 ATS L/36 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

CHICAGO is 9-2 ATS in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.CHICAGO is 53-26 ATS  after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games.

Play on the Chicago Bears to cover 

New England before their bye week showed some chinks in their armour by getting blown out by the  Baltimore Ravens. Now the public believes that the mighty Pats will bounce back and impose their will on the Eagles via the arm of NFL senior citizen Tom Brady. Personally Im one of these guys, that believes Father Time is Undefeated and that the future HOF QB Tom Brady will soon begin to regress as will his team. I also believe this line offers value on a what my power ranking suggest is an up trending Eagles side on  two game win streak. Note: The Eagles are 14-1 SU L/15, including 5-0 ATS as a dog with rest in non-division games.

PHILADELPHIA is 9-1 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  75% or better ) over the last 3 seasons. PHILADELPHIA is 16-4 ATS vs. top tier offensive teams - scoring 29 or more points/game in the second half of the season. Pederson is 11-2 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread as the coach of PHILADELPHIA.

NFL Home teams (PHILADELPHIA) - a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team in the second half of the season are long term profitable side propositions going 187-121 ATS L/36 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover 

QB Drew Brees was sacked six times in a loss at home loss to the Atlanta Falcons. Im now sure the pundits and obviously the lines-makers believe the mighty Saints will now bounce back and cover a 6 point road spread here in Tampa Bay. However, Im not sold on the Saints in this spot, and have noticed the franchise is just 14-27-2 ATS as a favorite in games when coming off a home loss and Payton is 2-9 ATS off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite as the coach of NEW ORLEANS. It must also be noted that TB has revenge on board for a 31-24 loss they suffered to the Saints on he road  earlier this season. TAMPA BAY is 18-7 ATS L/25 in home games revenging a  loss where opponent scored 28 or more points. Also From a league wide trends perspective :

NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TAMPA BAY) - revenging a same season loss against opponent, off a home win are 37-14 ATS L/10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. (TB beat Arizona last week at home by a 30-27 count)

Arians is 12-2 ATS  as a home underdog of 7 points or less in all games he has coached in his career. 

Play on the Tampa Bay Bucs to cover 

 A battle between two NFL bottom feeders who are in last place in their respective NFL divisions. go head to head this Sunday.   I know there is recency bias here as the Jets are off a win vs Giants last time out and the Skins just continue to struggle. However, having a bye week will give their young  QB Dwayne Haskins  some more time to get acclimated under center and to use the offence in the best way possible to get positive results.   With that said, Im betting on the Skins here , and fading the a Jets side that  are improbable back to back winners  and just 1-9 SU and 0-9-1 ATS L/10 against opposition off a bye week and 2-9 ATS in back to back NFC tilts. 

Play on the Washington Redskins to cover 

The Steelers have shown their resiliency  by winning four games in a row and five of their past six, with back QBs in the lineup. However, this week , they 're main mode of moving the chains starting running back James Conner and rookie Benny Snell are banged up and less than 100% if they play. If  QB Mason Rudolph has to go the air more often , because of a lack of ground game he will bump into a up trending Cleveland secondary that must be respected. Meanwhile, I look for a Browns team coming into this with momentum after a late TD win last time out, to come right at the  Steelers run D that is ranked 16th in the league behind the legs of Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb and do extensive damage . 

Tomlin is 6-15 ATS  in road games after a win by 6 or less points as the coach of PITTSBURGH which was the case in 17-12 win vs the Rams last time out.Tomlin is 9-18 ATS in road games after having won 4 out of their last 5 games as the coach of PITTSBURGH.

NFL team (PITTSBURGH) - off an upset win as a home underdog, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season are 3-23 L/36 seasons for a go against 88% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Cleveland to cover 

 Ben Rothlisberger was forced to the sidelines earlier this season, with a nasty elbow injury  but the Steelers have found a way to jell behind  backups  Duck Hodges and Mason Rudolph and find themselves in a hunt for a play off spot .  It must also be noted that  Mike Tomlin is   9-2-3 ATS as a home pup, and also  10-5 SUATS against the NFC West, including 6-1 SUATS a home. Meanwhile, the Rams do not have a great history vs the AFC North going  1-8 SU and 1-7-1 ATS against .500 or better opposition .

Steelers  as  hosts when coming off a win and facing an opponent coming off consecutive wins like the Rams , are 11-0 SUATS versus non-division opposition.

NFLFavorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LA RAMS) - excellent offensive team (370 or better YPG) against a team with a poor defense (335 to 370 YPG) are 10-59 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LA RAMS) - after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite against opponent off a home win are 12-34 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LA RAMS) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 4 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 7-27 ATS L/36 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Pittsburgh Steelers to cover 

This looks like a complete mismatch because of the opposite trajectories each of these teams has taken this season. However, it must be noted that New Orleans as a DD home favorite vs division opponents at home  is just 3-12 ATS L/15  and 0-6 ATS versus sub .200 opponents. Meanwhile , the Falcons are 5-1 ATS l in their L/6 as  double-digit dogs, as well  and are 22-3 ATS in this series when they enter with a win percentage of .625 or less.With that said, lets  be brave, take the points on what my projections estimate is a mathematical advantage. 

NFL Road teams (ATLANTA) - excellent passing team (265 or more PY/G) against a poor passing defense (230-265 PY/G) after 8+ games, after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 25-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

NF LRoad underdogs or pick (ATLANTA) - after 6 or more consecutive losses, in weeks 10 through 13 are 36-13 ATS L/36 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Atlanta Falcons 

The hard luck Buccaneers are off back to back losses at Seattle and at Tennessee, respectively, the past two weeks both times in OT. If this was a college team , I would bet they would be emotionally drained, but pros are pros for a reason and they react to adversity a lot different than kids. With that said, Im betting on a top tier effort this week from the Bucs here at home vs a Arizona side travelling from west to east and off a hard fought 28-25 loss against the 49ers last week in prime time. Im betting the Cards are the ones with the emotional hangover , and not the Bucs. Note: Im sure HC Bruce Arians has had this game circled for a while against his old team, and will be well prepared. 

Cardinals are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Cardinals are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games in November.

Cardinals are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

Buccaneers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

NFL Road teams (ARIZONA) - off 1 or more straight overs against opponent off 6 or more consecutive overs are 5-25 ATS L/36 seasons for a 83% go against conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Favorites (TAMPA BAY) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games, after the first month of the season are 102-62 L/10 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tampa Bay to cover 

These are two teams that have polar opposite records, with the Bills registering a 6-2 record while the Browns are at 2-6. However, the truth is the Browns are a talented team with a QB with a big arm in Baker Mayfield are highly under rated .  Note: The Browns have played a much tougher schedule than the Bills, their six losses coming against teams that are a combined 35-17, including 8-0 San Francisco, 8-1 New England and 7-2 Seattle. Cleveland’s roster includes 10 starters who are first- or second-round draft picks, either by the Browns or other teams and despite of some big name media clowns on their sidelines(not going to mention names) they are a team that can get things done if pressured like they are right now in their current form making them dangerous and motivated opponents for the Bills this Sunday.Add to that the activation of running back Kareem Hunt from a 8 game suspension and we have ignitor fuel to bet into. 

  Buffalo is over rated , having played the weakest schedules to date, behind the flimsy arm of quarterback Josh Allen who owns the 28th ranked  passer rating and a defence that has had its run D exposed of late.The Bills’ six wins this season have come against opponents whose combined record is 9-42. Four wins have come vs. 0-8 Cincinnati, 1-8 Washington, 1-7 Miami and the 1-7 New York Jets.

The Bills are 0-15 ATS/SU L/15 on grass vs a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road.

BUFFALO is 9-21 ATS in road games after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games since 1992.

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEVELAND) - after 4 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed no turnovers are 45-15 ATS L/36 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cleveland Browns to cover 

 This side investment option is based on a simple premise , that the Ravens after this huge prime time win vs the Patriots last Sunday night will be immensely hungover as they take on Cincinnati this week. Meanwhile, Cincinnati  rested and off a bye week and a new QB under center (Ryan Finely) is not as bad as their winless record would indicate, and have shown flashes of being very competitive. The Bengals lost 23-17 at Baltimore earlier this season, and will be primed to pull of an upset in the rematch and extend a positive 9-3 ATS run L/12 in this series. Note: Teams that have defeated a Super Bowl Champ in their L/game, are 7-25 SUATS in division contests going all the way back to 1980.   Also froma . team specific trend shows teams that beat the Patriots and then open as a 7+ point favorite  in their following tilt are 0-8 ATS dating back 16 seasons. 

Key injury update: Bengals A.J. Green is expected to make his season debut on Sunday. 

NFL Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CINCINNATI) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a struggling team (25%) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season are 67-26 ATS L/36 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Cincinnati to cover 

Two struggling teams the NY Jets and NY Giants co tenants of their facility will go head to head here this week, in a game I have pegged as a pickem , thus getting points with the underdog Jets is a value play. Taking the Jets is just the lesser of two evils, but from a mathematical standpoint a prudent decision in my opinion in a game that could easily be won with a late FG. 

NFL team (NY JETS) - after 5 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 64-28 L/36 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Jets to cover 

The Chargers are a team that does not get accolades from the public, and are in some ways homeless and using temporary shelter in LA where no one seems to care about them. So this Chargers team feels more comfortable on the road than when playing hosts . Meanwhile, the future Las Vegas Raiders , are a team that is up trending, and getting alot of respect from the pundits. However, it seems the lines makers are not buying the hype, and have installed the home team in this matchup as essentially a pickem on a short chalk line. It must be noted that Chargers QB Phillip Rivers , has been a ATM machine for his backers when he goes on the road vs division opposition going 27-12-1 ATS , and 16-4 ATS when his team is not favoured by more than 3 points which is the case here this Thursday night. I know Oakland has looked good this season, and are off a impressive win vs the Lions, but it must be noted that the Silver and Black have a long history of failure  this series losing 4 straight and 20 of the L/27 meetings SU and if they  are off a SU/ATS win and playing at home they are  0-11 ATS . 

Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.Chargers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games in November.Chargers are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 road games.

Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Oakland.

Play on the LA Chargers to cover 

The Dallas Cowboys have defeated the NY Giants 5 straight times, but  NYG QB Daniel Jones was not under center in any of those games. All good and bad things must eventually come to an end. Whether the tide changes or not will soon be foretold. But one thing I am betting on is that the Gmen will make a game of this behind the arm of their young gun Jones: Note:  This is the first time Jones has all his skill players healthy and ready to play. WR Sterling Shepard looks ready to return after sitting out two games with his second concussion. TE Evan Engram is healthy. WR Golden Tate has played in four straight after returning from a suspension for using performance-enhancers. Barkley will be playing in his third straight after sitting out three with an ankle injury.

DALLAS is 6-16 ATS in road games off a home blowout win by 21 points or more since 1992.

Cowboys are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 Monday games.

Cowboys are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games in Week 9.

Cowboys are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.

NFL Road teams (DALLAS) - after beating the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game, in weeks 5 through 9 are 33-77 SU L/36 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Giants to cover 

The undefeated New England Patriots actually look vulnerable here according to my power rankings, and matchup algorithms vs rested Baltimore side off a bye week . It must be noted    that the Baltimore  Ravens rush  offence puts up an average of 5.5 YPR, while the Patriots allow 4.6 Yards Per Rush on defense.  So what Im expecting tonight is for the hosts to pound the ball down the throat of the Pats and to do extensive damage with this formula, and to come out of this tilt with a cover. 

New England is just 2-9 ATS L/11 vs rested .500 or better  non division opposition .

BALTIMORE is 32-17 ATS  against AFC East division opponents since 1992.

NFL Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW ENGLAND) - quick starting offensive team - scoring 14+ PPG in the first half, after allowing 14 points or less last game are 9-29 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road favorites (NEW ENGLAND) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after a win by 10 or more points are 18-50 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW ENGLAND) - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games are 7-25 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Baltimore Ravens to cover 

There is no real home field advantage for the LA Chargers playing here , in Dignity Health Sports Park and there will probably be more Packers fans than Chargers fans here. However, my power rankings suggest we have value in what could best be described as a neutral field environment.The Packers/Chargers are tied for the NFL lead with seven touchdown receptions by running backs and are more evenly matched than most might think. 

Last week the Chargers beat the Bears, but  the organization has had enough of  offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt  play calling and instead will have their QB coach Shane Steichen call plays this week a guy I think has been undervalued by the Chargers. This week look for QB Philip Rivers  who is s second in the league with 202 completions, fourth with 305attempts, third with 2,315 yards and 10th with 66.2 percent accuracy to have a decent Sunday, vs Aaron Rodgers and company.Note: In three career starts against Green Bay, he’s averaged 398 passing yards. 

I know its hard to bet against the Packers because of recency biases, but Im not going to give a great deal of attention to those numbers today and instead will base my opinion on the mathematics that suggest we have value taking points. 

NFL Underdogs or pick (LA CHARGERS) - struggling rushing team ( 3.5 YPR) against a poor rushing defense (4.5  or moreYPR) after 8+ games, after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games are 26-6 L/36 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Chargers to cover 

There is no culture of winning in Cleveland and now thye have to endure bad coaching which just does not bode well for this franchise. All the off seasons moves along with  the pundits in the media telling us how great Cleveland was going to be , still has the public believing the hype. I know QB  Baker Mayfield has a great arm, but he is no longer taking advantage of weak Big 12 defences, and here against secondaries and defences with a heart beat he's had his issues , and here against a blue collar Broncos D, Im betting those problems persist. I also know Joe Flacco is now lost to the Broncos for the season, and his backup Brandon Allen will start, but Flacco was not playing well and this might actually be a shot in the arm for  Denvers struggling offence. Note:Denver defense  has held each of their last four opponents to season low  or 2nd low yards. Im betting they will be key to us getting the cover. 

CLEVELAND is 0-8 ATS  vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return over the last 3 seasons.CLEVELAND is 4-14 ATS  after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

I was on the fence , waiting and watching this line, and now that it has moved , thanks to public sentiment Ive changed my my mind and decided to jump in here and take the points. 

Play on the Denver Broncos to cover 

Whether Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes  starts this week or not , he had previous to be injured  flashed  signs of  the dreaded sophomore jinx and  in his three appearances  prior to that as he  completed less than 58% of his passes in those aforementioned tilts.

MINNESOTA is 12-4 ATS  in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.

NFL team (MINNESOTA) - good team (outgain opp. by 40-100 YPG) against an average team (+/- 40 YPG) after 8+ games, after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games 40-5 SU L/5 seasons. 

 Minnesota head coach Zimmer has seen his team cash 16 of his L/21 versus AFC opposition , including 6-0 ATS when the Vikings are coming off consecutive wins.Zimmer is also 41-15-2 ATS outside the NFC North and deserves respect as an underdog.

Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover 

Last time out the Eagles temporarily saved their season with a win as dogs, and on the flip side their opponents the Bears continue their incompetence, off a loss they should have had against the Chargers last week in a season full of a comedy of errors. Now Chicago Im betting will be feeling downtrodden while the Eagles will feel rejuvenated and ready to perform here at home with momentum on their sides. I honestly have not had a great read on the Eagles this season, but momentum means alot and I'm riding that here today. 

Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.

Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 ATS off a upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons

The Bears are 0-13 ATS /SU failing to cover by more than 13 ppg as a road dog after a game in which less than 22 percent of their opponent?s first downs were from third down.

Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover 

Wembley Stadium - London, England

The Jags D, has been playing well of late but my own QB vs D, power rankings suggest Texans QB Deshaun Watson who has the  5th best QB rating in the league this season (105.7), has the edge. I know this is like the Jags second home after playing 6 games here in England,  but the overall matchup projections favour the Texans. 

The Jaguars are 2-16 SU/ATS as non-conference dogs dating back 7 seasons. 

NFL Favorites vs. the money line (HOUSTON) - excellent passing team - with a completion pct of 64% or better, after allowing 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games are 46-5 L/10 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Houston to cover 

 This Thursday night  two teams to be perceived the public to be at the opposite end of the performance spectrum do battle. San Francisco is at the head of the  NFC West as the remaining undefeated team in the conference after smashing Carolina last week 51-13, while Arizona is below .500 and in last place in the division. However, Arizona may not be as bad as the public might believe, as the Cardinals were riding a three-game winning streak before visiting the New Orleans Saints Sunday and losing 31-9. Recency bias plays into alot of lines in any bet-able sports, and because of this value can be obtained in certain circumstances. Tonight we have one of those situations as my own projections estimate that from a mathematical standpoint that Arizonas chances of covering are in the 55% range, which makes this a very viable investment opportunity. Note: Arizona is 5-0 SU in its last 5 overall games when playing San Francisco and  is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco.

ARIZONA is 25-8 ATS after allowing 7 or more yards/play in their previous game . 

ARIZONA is 17-4 ATS L/21 vs. very good defensive teams who give up 14 or less points/game . 

NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games are 7-25 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

NFLRoad favorites (SAN FRANCISCO) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after a win by 10 or more points are 18-50 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against  74% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home teams  (ARIZONA) - mistake-free team - committing 0.75 or less turnovers/game, after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 31-5 SU L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Arizona to cover 

Aaron Rodgers is red hot, and the KC Chiefs will start a backup QB in place of their star pivot Patrick Mahomes who is surprisingly already back at practice. However, Andy Reid knows how to win, and it's never easy to get a victory in Arrow Head  and covering here won't be an easy task. 

Packers are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS win.Packers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.Packers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 8.Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Chiefs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Chiefs are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games following a ATS win.Chiefs are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.Chiefs are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Chiefs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.

NFL Underdogs or pick (KANSAS CITY) - after going under the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games, in non-conference games are 23-4 ATS L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate.

Play on the KC Chiefs to cover 

NY was dumped last week vs Arizona by a 27-21 count, but did make a come back after being down by DDs earlier in that game and have the ability to hang with a Motown side that has lost 3 straight games thanks in part to a porous D. Note: NFL  visiting underdogs are a bankroll expanding 45-24-1 ATS this season, including 18-4-1 ATS when facing opposition  coming off a defeat. Im betting on young gun Daniel Jones to have some luck here this week vs the Lions rickety secondary and for the Gmen to deliver the cash. 

Giants have won 4 of their L/5 visits to Detroit. 

NY GIANTS are 16-3 ATS L/19  after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games. DETROIT is 31-52 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY GIANTS) - after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after a loss by 10 or more points are 36-12 ATS L/36 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Giants to cover 

 Man did Philadelphia disappoint me last week in Dallas. It was an atrocious effort . Their D allowed 400 plus yards for the 2nd straight game. However despite of that,  according to my projections and perceptions  still a solid overall team that I whole heartedly believe in, especially against what I also project to be a over rated Buffalo team that has beat up on teams with a combined 6-25 SU record. I know this is the Eagles 3rd straight road game, and that they lost the previous two, but it must be noted that  NFL road teams in the 3rd of three straight away tilts are  a bankroll expanding 40-26 ATS when coming off consecutive losses and  32-16 ATS dating back 27 seasons), including 20-6 ATS in non- division tilts  and a near perfect 11-1 ATS when coming off a losing effort  of  10  or more points.. The Eagles themselves are  5-1 ATS as dogs in their 3rd straight away game.  The Eagles are also 12-1 SU and 13-0 ATS away in the regular season after scoring 10 or fewer points which was the case last week in Dallas. 

PHILADELPHIA is 8-1 ATS  when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or better) over the last 3 seasons.

Bills are 1-4 ATS L/5 at home vs a side with a losing record.

Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover 

I was going to completely by pass this game, but the key number I was looking for awoke me to the value being offered here on this line. I know the Colts are playing great football, but Denver has been highly competitive so far this season despite of last weeks debacle vs the KC chiefs and QB  Flacco's sack numbers. The Broncos had won their previous two games, and lost by 2 points to Jacksonville, and Chicago and gave the red hot Packers a run for their money in a 26-17 loss. With recency bias on our sides and a the fact that all the Colts decisions have come within 7 points or less, this is a viable side opportunity with the underdog. 

I also expect the Colts to be in a letdown spot after their big win vs Houston last week giving the hungry side room to out energize their opponent. 

Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 8.Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in October.Broncos are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.

Colts are 0-3-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Play on the Denver Broncos to cover 

This line has just gone crazy as it opened at -3.5 and has steamed via public action all the way up to this -7 line. After that adjustment, we now have value with the ugly home mutt. I know Atlanta has looked horrendous for much of the early part of this season, but thanks to that recency bias we have value here taking points from a mathematical perspective. 

Fading large steam moves like this have been a long term winning proposition -131-77-6 ATS dating back 14 seasons for a solid 62% conversion rate and a ROI of 23%. 

ATLANTA is 33-17 ATS   after allowing 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games.

Play on the Atlanta Hawks to cover 

Things are not good in Dallas right now as Americas team has lost three straight games, but are still being made favs here at home vs a Eagles side that has won 2 of their L3 games overall. This game is important to both sides, and Im betting it will be a hard fought battle that makes getting points a solid investment opportunity.  It must be noted that HC Garrett has covered just 5 of 19 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less as the coach of DALLAS.The Dallas Cowboys, are also just 1-18-1 ATS as home favorites when coming off a SU and ATS loss.

The Cowboys when made  home favorites  have allowed road underdogs to cash at a  34-19-1 ATS  clip during the L/10 seasons for  a 75% conversion rate .

Eagles are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in October.Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.Road team is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 meetings. 

Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover 

Things are not going the Atlanta Falcons way so far this season, as was evident last week when they out yarded and out played Arizona and still found a way to lose a one point 34-33 road tilt. Now the Falcons are extremely desperate to get a win here at home this week vs a struggling Rams side on a 3 game losing streak and Im betting take advantage of downtrodden team that is reeling out of control. Note:Super Bowl loser like the Rams as a non-division road chalk are just  (28-51-5 ATS) .  The Falcons are 4-0/SU/ATS L/4 in this series and get the nod again to get us the cover. 

ATLANTA is 21-8 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games.LA RAMS is 14-28 ATS  L/42 in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better. 

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ATLANTA) - an average offensive team (18 to 23 PPG) against a good offensive team (23-27 PPG), after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 39-15 ATS L/36 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Atlanta to cover 

Bills QB Josh Allen(Concussion protocol) has found ways to win despite throwing seven interceptions and losing several fumbles. He is truly a over rated QB at this point in his career. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are changing quarterbacks and last week, behind Ryan Fitzpatrick almost pulled off a miraculous comeback.  Look for Fitzmagic to be the difference maker here today vs a solid but vulnerable D, that Its use will be over looking this current opponent. 

BUFFALO is 14-28 ATS after having won 4 out of their last 5 games since 1992.

The Bills have lost the last two times they've been favored by 15 1/2 or more points. Buffalo lost 24-17 to the New York Jets on Dec. 6, 1992, and 16-13 at Indianapolis the previous week.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (MIAMI) - off a home cover where the team lost as an underdog, winless on the season are 25-6 ATS L/36 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Miami Dolphins to cover 

Lets not fool ourselves here , Washington is a horrendous team. However, travelling from west to east like the 49ers are here today and playing out of your time zone can also cause some havoc with a players body, and  mind set and even  preparedness. After being emotionally charged up for their last game , a win vs division rival the LA Rams Im expecting an emotional let down situation to concur with their east coast travel plans. With that said , Im betting on the 5-0 Niners to come out flat here and for the Skins to find a ugly way to cover. 

SAN FRANCISCO is 10-23 ATS L/33 in road games when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. 25% or less). 

NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games are 5-24  ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Washington Redskins to cover 

Kansas City is struggling  after losing 2 straight games thanks in part  to  Patrick Mahomes’  limited mobility because of an ankle injury.  Tonight against a bruising run orientated Denver team Im betting those struggles continue. 

Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

KANSAS CITY is 2-14 L/16 ATS  after gaining 6 or more yards/play in 4 consecutive games.

Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in October.Broncos are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Thursday games.

Underdog is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

The Broncos are 11-0 ATS/SU on natural surface vs a divisional opponent after a win by more than a TD as a home favorite in which they were up by more than a FG at the half.

 NFL Road teams (KANSAS CITY) - off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 9-31 ATS L/36 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Denver Broncos to cover 

The Steelers suffered a bitter 26-23 overtime loss to the Ravens last week and will now be in an emotional letdown spot here this week. Also With Mason Rudolph injured(knocked out cold last week in frightening fashion) and  playing at less than 100% or not at all , the Steelers are now down to third string Quarterback Devlin Hodges and are very much fade material here in this spot play. I know the Chargers came out flat last week vs the Broncos, and lost a 20-14 sleeper but now wide awake after that metaphorical nap Im expecting the Chargers to wake up in a big way and to add more pain to the Steeler nation. I know theSteelers are known as a chalk killer, and have consistently cashed in the underdog role overthe last few seasons, but todays situation does not bode well for this trend to continue. 

LA CHARGERS is 8-1 ATS after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons and is 29-14 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite.

NFL team (LA CHARGERS) - after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers against opponent after 4 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 79-40 L/37 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Chargers to cover 

Dallas has lost their last two games, and are looking less and less viable as contenders as this season progresses. Meanwhile,  with the Jets QB Sam Darnold now expected to be back in the lineup the Jets look like viable home dogs in this spot. Im not saying the Jets will win, but getting 7 points at home with your starting QB back in the lineup will provide both a logistics edge as well an emotional one of the home dog.

Jets are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Jets are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games in October.

Underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.Road team is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

The Cowboys are 1-16 ATS as a favorite on turf when they are off a game as a favorite and they are facing a team that has a third down conversion percentage of less than 40%.

Play on the NY Jets to cover 

The Atlanta Falcons are now in desperation mode, vs a team Im betting they can handle in the Arizona Cardinals. I know the Flacons have lost three straight and in their last game got blasted 53-32 at Houston, but this has been a motivating factor for the Falcons in the past as they are  9-0 ATS L/9 times in road games off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more.

Arizona got their first win of the season vs a banged up Bengals team last time out but are just   2-11- SU and 3-10- ATS  in games when coming off a win, including 0-4-1 SUATS at home. The Cardinals are also 0-14 SU/ATS  as a dog off a game as a dog when they are facing a team that is off two seven-plus point losses like the Falcons.

Today Im betting on QB Matt Ryan delivering what the Falcons need and thats  a win and more importantly as far as we are concerned a cover.  

NFL Road teams (ATLANTA) - outrushed by their opponents by 40 or more yards/game on the season, after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game are 24-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road favorites (ATLANTA) - excellent passing team - averaging 255 or more passing yards/game, after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 3 straight games are 36-12 ATS L/36 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Atlanta  Falcons to cover 

 The Dolphins are a despicable team , and so is are their opponents the Washington Redskins. But the lesser of the two evils according to my projections resides with the Dolphins getting points at home. This is strictly about performance charts and the mathematics associated with betting pro football. No way in hell do the Redksins deserve to be 3 plus point chalk on the road , not even against the Fins and this game according to my estimates should be a pickem and thus in my betting opinion getting points here will be golden. 

Note: The Dolphins are well rested and have had time to get ready for this tilt. Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a bye week.

Washington has historically been a bad bet as favorites- WASHINGTON is 33-54 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 

Play on the Miami Dolphins to cover 

The Seattle Seahawks enter this game vs the Cleveland Browns after beating the Los Angeles Rams 30-29 on Thursday Night Football in what was a hard fought emotional affair and now Im betting they will be hung over. Meanwhile, Cleveland is off being embarrassed 31-3 in a Monday night tilt, and will be primed to bounce back. I know  Browns QB Baker Mayfield has struggled a bit of late, but today against a  Seahawks 26th ranked pass D secondary that is allowing 270.6 passing yards per game,  Im betting he comes to life and buoys his team to a cover.

Browns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.

Seahawks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.

The Seahawks are 0-12 SU/ATS as a dog vs a non-divisional opponent when they are off a win and their rushing yards increased over each of their last two games.

Home team is 3-0-2 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Play on the Cleveland Browns to cover 

 . Tottenham Hotspur Stadium - London, England

Tampa off two consecutive road games and now travelling across the pond look vulnerable in a place  (England) that has not been kind to them going 0-2 SUATS while being outscored by 59-25 count , and Im betting they end up on the wrong side of the scoreboard here this week against the Carolina Panthers. Look for Panthers QB Kyle Allen to improve to 5-0 SUATS as a NFL starter .

When these teams met back on Sept 12 TB upset Carolina at home and now revenge is on board for the Panthers . Note: Rivera is 13-4 ATS  revenging a home loss against opponent as the coach of CAROLINA. also since that loss the Panthers have won 3 straight and have the confidence and momentum to get what they want. 

TAMPA BAY is 0-6 ATS after allowing 6.5 or more yards/play 2 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons.

 NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TAMPA BAY) - after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games against opponent after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 10-32 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Carolina Panthers to cover 

The  undefeated Forty Niners  take on the public darling Browns tonight on Monday night Football .Teams like SF that are undefeated NFL home teams in  Monday night prime time affairs are ,   25-5 SU and 23-7 ATS in non-division games. Overall this  Niners  franchise has a long history of MNF success going  40-16 SU and 41-14-1 ATS   . Meanwhile, the Browns enter  with a 2-0  record in their first two away games for the first time in the L/25 years, and it came   against strong opposition  (Ravens and Rams) and they must be respected for those efforts . However, from a historical standpoint this is not a good situation for the Browns as they have been futile in back to back road affairs  as they have never won back to back away games dating back 16 season  which includes 38 back-to-back road tilts. Its actually never easy for any NFL team to win back to back road games, and with the Browns playing their 3rd prime time game of the season, Im betting some emotional fatigue could rare its ugly head tonight giving the home side and extra advantage. 

CLEVELAND is 1-9 ATS L/10 in road games off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival NFL .CLEVELAND is 9-21 ATS L/20 after a win by 14 or more points.

SAN FRANCISCO is 32-11 ATS when playing on Monday night since 1992.

Road underdogs or pick (CLEVELAND) - off a upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 10-33 ATS L/37 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the SF 49ers to cover 

New England had a hard fought win vs Buffalo last week by a 16-10 count as they failed to cover as TD road chalk. In that game, super star and future HOF QB Tom Brady’s 45.9 Passer Rating registered as  his worst  in 13 campaigns.  Is the  veteran starting to show his age or was this an anomaly? While I never want to count out one of the leagues all time great QBs ....it  still must be noted that " Father Time is Undefeated" and King Toms inevitable departure from the game  more imminent than many might realize. Meanwhile, Washington despite of their miserable efforts in back to back games, are not as bad as some of the pundits might think. Yes, the Skins have  looked in-cohesive behind their current QBs Keenum and rookie Haskins  but  the Skins  D has still shown some life and no team is ever as bad as they looked in their last game in this league . With that said, Im betting we have some value here with the ugly home dog from a mathematical perspective. Note: With veteran QB Colt McCoy now healthy and practicing after breaking his leg last season he could possibly be getting the start this week making the  Skins are a very viable underdog. The former Texas Longhorns star appeared in three games last season, completing 34 of 54 passes for 372 yards with three touchdowns while also rushing for 63 yards on 10 carries.

 Skins 6-1 ATS L/7 as home dogs against .600 or better opposition. 

WASHINGTON is 10-1 ATS  versus excellent rushing defenses - allowing 70 or less rushing yards/game .The Redskins are 12-1 ATS (L/13 as a dog vs a team like the Pats that is forcing more than 5.9 punts per game. 

NFL Favorites of 10.5 or more points (NEW ENGLAND) - outgaining their opponents by 1.75 or more passing yards/attempt, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 13-39 ATS L/36 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Favorites of 10.5 or more points (NEW ENGLAND) - good passing team - with a completion pct of 60% or better, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 3 straight games are 5-23 ATS L/36 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Underdogs or pick (WASHINGTON) - outrushed by their opponents by 40 or more yards/game on the season, after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game are 30-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Washington Redskins to cover 

Despite of losing to the Bears last week 16-6  the Minnesota Vikings are still a top tier team that has held two of their opponents to season low yards. Now this week against a young QB Daniel Jones, Im betting the Vikings defence comes out and completely dominates the line of scrimmage. Hey I know the Giants QB Jones is media darling, but he still has lessons to be learned before he can ascend  to his current premature god like status, and today Im betting those lessons will be brutal. Key today will be Minnesota running game that is averaging 155.3 yards rushing against a banged up Gmen rush D, that is currently ranked at 19th in the league.

Giants are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win.Giants are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games following a ATS win.Giants are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Giants are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.Giants are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.

Zimmer is 33-16 ATS as a favorite as the coach of MINNESOTA.

Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer is 17-2-1 ATS against non- division opponents when coming off a loss, including 8-0 ATS as a favorite.

Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover 

Last week the Steelers implemented a wild cat offence, and had some success, thats not going to work against Baltimore. It also obvious to me now that without their veteran QB  Roethlisberger at the helm of the offence, scoring is going to be difficult  prospect for the Steelers going forward . On the flip side Im betting the ravens behind  QB Lamar Jackson’s  run heavy offence that has produced 200 yard plus efforts in 7 of  12 of his career starts awhile averaging 5.6 rpg carry will be the key to them getting the win and cover in this spot.

The Ravens are 13-4 ATS L/17 on the road.

Harbaugh is 6-0 ATS  in road games after allowing 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games as the coach of BALTIMORE.

NFL Favorites vs. the money line (BALTIMORE) - excellent offensive team (370 or more  YPG) against a team with a terrible defense (370 or more  YPG), after allowing 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 44-4 L/10 seasons for 92% conversion rate.

NFL Road favorites vs. the money line (BALTIMORE) - with a good offense - averaging 335 or more total yards/game, after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 37-3 L/10 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Baltimore to cover 

  Im betting Pete Carrolls Seahawks who are off a easy dd win last week vs Arizona   will be primed for a big time effort here vs  a reeling St.Louis team that was pounded 55-40 last week by TB at home. It must be noted this is the Seahawks first time playing here at CenturyLink Field  after losing their first game ever game  in September in front of their home town fans so their is definitely a motivation factor here at work today. 

Defending Super Bowl losers  like the Rams  against opposition like Seattle coming off a double-digit victory, are 2-15 SU when the defending finals group are off an ATS loss in their last game.   Seattle QB Russell Wilson, is 12-1-1 ATS in his NFL career in tilts  against opposition coming off a SU favorite loss  including 9-0 ATS when  they are chalk of  5 points or less in those games.

SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS  vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better over the last 2 seasons. Carroll is 7-0 ATS when playing on a Thursday as the coach of SEATTLE.

LA RAMS is 8-20 ATS L/28  in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 375 or kore yards/game. LA RAMS is 7-24 ATS L/31 after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse.

NFL Home teams (SEATTLE) - after 3 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are 24-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Seattle Seahawks to cover 

The Bengals  enter this Monday night game looking very inconsistent this season which is not a good omen for them as they go against a Pittsburgh Steelers franchise that has dominated them. The Bengals have lost eight straight and 11 of 12 against their AFC North rival Steelers and are just  6-15 in prime-time games since 2011, including 2-5 on Monday night.  Im betting more of the same misery awaits them is in this spot. I know the Steelers will be playing without their veteran QB Roethisberger but in my own betting opinion his back up  Mason Rudolph is more than capable of getting the job done here tonight. 

NFL Underdogs or pick (CINCINNATI) - excellent offensive team (5.8  or more YPP) against a team with a terrible defense (5.8  or more YPP), after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game are 11-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Pittsburgh to cover 

Teddy Bridgewater looks just fine replacing super star QB Drew Bree's in last weeks road win vs Seattle. The Saints QB is now 24-7 ATS as a starter in the NFL, including 17-2 ATS in non-division tilts and Im betting he responds well here at home in the friendly confines of the Mercedes-Benz Superdome.

Note: . HC Sean Payton  has seen his teams thrive against non-division opposition  like the Cowboys coming off a double-digit win, going 21-5-1 ATS in his NFL career,  including a perfect 8-0 ATS in games when coming off a SU underdog victory. 

The Saints are 12-1 SU and 13-0 ATS L/13 at home during the regular season against .800 or greater opponents.

NFL Road favorites (DALLAS) - with an excellent offense - averaging 5.7 or more yards/play, after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 9-31 ATS L/36 seasons for a 78% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Take the points with the New Orleans Saints to cover 

Last week Seattle's QB Russell Wilson. threw for 406 yards  and  four touchdowns and the Seahawks  out yarded  Saints 515-265) and still lost in a ugly looking contest at home, a place Pete Carrolls troops usually flourish. Now in a focused bounce back situation Im betting the Seahawks come out and take care of business vs  a over matched Arizona side that is depending way to much on a rookie QB Kyler Murray’(0-2-1) to get things done. 

The lines makers believe the Seahawks are the superior side and I agree they have a very high probability of winning here and covering . Note: In the Cardinals last 39 home losses they are a astonishing 1-36-2 ATS. 

ARIZONA is 3-11 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. over the last 3 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at -15.7.

Play on the Seattle Seahawks to cover 

I know that if you watched the Redskins last Monday night, you might feel squeamish about pulling the trigger on them here. That was truly a horrendous effort in prime time  as they were down 28-0 at the half before finally losing 31-15 . However, Im now betting  this Skins team wants to make amends for being embarrassed in front the of the nation and will come out here with their proverbial hair on fire. Hey guys I know their is a love fest going on around NYG new QB Daniel Jones,but operating without  star all purpose RB Saquon Barkley who is out for 6 to 8 weeks will hinder him going forward as will a  Giants secondary that  is getting torched on a regular basis. With that said Ill recommend you Plug your nose and take the points. 

 It must be noted that  Washington is a perfect 8-0 ATS on the road after a SU and ATS home loss winning 7 of those game SU with the only loss coming in OT by a FG. 

 NY GIANTS are 1-11 ATS in home games after allowing 350 or more passing yards in their last game which was the case agains the TB Bucs last week.NY GIANTS are 0-8 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Favorites (NY GIANTS) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing 1 or less turnovers/game, after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 8-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Washington Redskins to cover 

 I said it earlier this season, and Im still on board with my thinking that this is a special version of the Green Bay Packers and that if they can avert injuries may surprise alot of pundits this season with a  Super Bowl run. As far as this game goes, I really feel strongly that the Packers are the superior side, especially at home vs a Eagles team that is banged up with alot of injuries. Note: QB Aaron Rodgers is 9-2 ATS  in his career in prime time  Thursdays and  a perfect  4-0 SU/ATS  in his career vs the Eagles. 

NFL teams like the Packers  that enter  game 4 of the season at 3-0 ATS   are  10-0 ATS against 0-3 ATS teams lhe Eagles since 1980.

GREEN BAY is 20-5 ATS in home games after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better.

NFL Underdogs or pick (PHILADELPHIA) - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, when playing on a Thursday are 21-52 ATS L/36 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Green Bay Packers to cover 

Chicago just can't move the ball, and QB Trubisky looks lost 90% of the time. The Bears were fortunate to get a win last week vs Denver, but now in a letdown situation after that lucky and emotional win,Im betting on a rocky performance especially with this being  the Bears 2nd straight road game. Bottom line is the Redksins have an edge getting points at home.

WASHINGTON is 8-0 ATS  after allowing 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Underdogs or pick (WASHINGTON) - poor defense from last season - allowed 335 or more total yards/game, after allowing 450 or more total yards in their previous game are 34-13 ATS L/36 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Washington to cover

While confirming that starting quarterback Drew Brees would have surgery  to repair a torn ligament in his right thumb, New Orleans Saints Coach Sean Payton said the offensive plan for Sunday’s game against Seattle will include both  the No.2 and No3  quarterbacks, Teddy Bridgewater and Taysom Hill. Seattle HC Carroll will have his hands full facing and strategizing against a two QB system . Do not count out the talented Saints ability compete here. 

Payton is 21-8 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of NEW ORLEANS. Payton is 27-13 ATS off a road loss as the coach of NEW ORLEANS.

NFL Home favorites (SEATTLE) - good offense from last season - averaged 5.4 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game are 11-34 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate.

Play on the Saints to cover 

The Steelers begin life without injured future HOF QB Ben Roethisberger, and instead will be forced to  start Mason Rudolph . Don't feel to sorry for the Steelers however, as there some talent still left, as well as a top tier coach in Tomlin who has proven he can guide his team to victory even when Big Ben is on the sidelines as is evident by winning 10 of 17 games su without their star QB. I know the Niners are getting alot of accolades and playing at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum than the Steelers, but in the past the 49ers are bad bets vs the following perimeters going  just 1-7 ATS when coming off back-to-back ATS wins, and an unperfected 0-7 ATS off non-division tilts when facing opposition coming off consecutive losses like the Steelers. 

NFL teams like the Niners in  Week 3 home openers after starting the season with back-to-back road games are jus 11-27-2 ATS L/40 opportunities for go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. Also home teams off back to back road games to start their season in their home opener have covered under 50% of their games dating back 16 seasons.

PITTSBURGH in their L/103 games as a road underdog since 1992 have seen an average ppg diff of -1.8 ppg. 

NFL Home favorites (SAN FRANCISCO) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 24 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 5-34 ATS L/36 seasons for go go against 87% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Pittsburgh Steelers to cover 

Wow.Im not going to blame the public here for being brave enough to lay 3+ TDS with Dak Prescott and Co. as last week they watched squares and sharps cash on the New England Pats. in a 43-0 whitewash that saw bettors laying -19 . In two games the Dolphins have shown no pride or fight what so ever  while getting out scored 102-10. Now the pundits and even their dogs are laughing at the Fins, and this week Im expecting this group to come out in a nasty mood after being embarrassed. Remember these are not College kids and they dont like to be made to look like fools.  it must also be noted that Dak Prescott is no Tom Brady modus operandi usually  very precise and conservative  that does not pile up points via a fast all out attack. The Cowboys are more of a grinding side, which gives me credence in my choice to take 22 points here in what Im betting is a mathematical edge according to my projections.

NFL Underdogs or pick (MIAMI) - pathetic defense from last season - allowed 385 or more total yards/game are 33-11 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

Dallas head coach Jason Garrett has covered just 7 of his L/22 against the spread as a favorite of a touchdown or greater.

NFL Home favorites (DALLAS) - good offense from last season - averaged 5.4 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game are 11-34 ATS L/10 seasons for go against 11-34 ATS record L/10 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate fir bettors. 

Play on the Miami Dolphins to cover 

 New England clobbered hapless Miami last week, and now with a 3rd string QB expected to start this week for the Jets another beatdown is expected. However im betting  QB Luke Falk  via star RB Levon Bell and some other trickery will be utilized this Sunday and that the Jets a team that has a history of hanging tough at Gillette Stadium will get us the cover.

Over the last 26 seasons seven NFL games have closed with a point spread of 20 points or higher and those teams are 7-0 straight up, but  are just 1-6 against the spread. Since the 2007 season, favorites of 20 or more points are 0-5 ATS , failing to, cover the spread by 11.4 points per game.

NFL team (NEW ENGLAND) - after 2 straight wins by 21 or more points against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 15-39 ATS L/36 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Jets to cover 

Buffalo comes into this game off two straight road wins to start their season, and the city of Buffalo is now sky high. So as in their usual fashion, I won't be surprised of the Bills crap the bed here this week vs the Bengals, a team that has played Dr.Jekyll and Mr.Hyde football to begin their campaign, playing well on the road vs Seattle in week 1 and than falling asleep at the proverbial wheel  in game two and clobbered by DDs by non other than the 49ers. Now in a rebound mode I expect the Bengals to come out here, and really give the Bills a battle. Note: Buffalo is recently just 3-13 SU and 3-12-1 ATS when coming off consecutive SU/ATS victories. 

NFL teams like the Bills in  Week 3 home openers after starting the season with back-to-back road games are just 11-27-2 ATS L/40 opportunities for go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. Also home teams off back to back road games to start their season in their home opener have covered under 50% of their games dating back 16 seasons.

NFLUnderdogs or pick (CINCINNATI) - pathetic defense from last season - allowed 385 or more total yards/game are 31-11 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cincinnati Bengals to cover 

Public darlings KC enter this game as favourites vs the upstart Baltimore Ravens who have clobbered opponent after opponent all the way back into the preseason and are Im betting capable of hanging with the explosive KC Chiefs.The Ravens are outgunning their opposition by +267 net YPG while averaging a league-best 41 PPG. Both teams can score , but the difference maker will come on D, where the. Ravens despite of some short comings are still better than the Swiss cheese   D of the Chiefs that plays with very little emotion thanks to QB Patrick Mahomes ability to give them huge leads. 

I do believe the Ravens are putting alot miles on their bodies out of the gate this season with all out performances which could effect them later on in the campaign, but for this week Im expecting a full pedal to the metal performance. 

KANSAS CITY is 2-12 ATS after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games.

Baltimore has won and covered 3 of their L/4 visits to Arrowhead. KC won last year 27-24 here at home, but it must be noted that HC Haraugh is 7-0-1 ATS the last eight when seeking revenge for a loss.

 NFL teams like the KC  in  Week 3 home openers after starting the season with back-to-back road games are jus 11-27-2 ATS L/40 opportunities for go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. Also home teams off back to back road games to start their season in their home opener have covered under 50% of their games dating back 16 seasons.

NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS CITY) - after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite against opponent off a home win are 10-34 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Baltimore Ravens to cover