Browns lead the league in Time of Possession this season (35:36) and are capable of hitting back via the pass game with under rated QB Brissett  or the  run game behind vaunted RB Chubb. Brissett has given up just one interception in 92 passes so far this season.

They have won the stats battle in all 3 of their games and deserve respect here to cash for on the road vs a over rated Atlanta side. Note: The Browns are 5-0 ATS L/5 non conference road tilts. 

Atlanta is 0-8 SUATS versus the AFC North last 8 seasons , while the Browns are  7-0 ATS in its last seven games against the NFC South.

Smith is 0-6 ATS  in home games after playing their last game on the road as the coach of ATLANTA.ATLANTA is 2-18 ATS in home games after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread. 

The Browns own a 12-3 lead in the all-time series, including a 28-16 home win in the teams' last meeting on Nov. 11, 2018. Rinse and repeat situation on board. 

Play on Cleveland to cover 

The Ravens must not be underestimated   in this tilt vs a top tier  Buffalo side  as they are, averaging 33 points and 380.3 yards per game behind the arm and legs  of QB  Jackson, and a over powering offensive line. 

Baltimore's HC John Harbaugh is 7-1 ATS in his last eight games as a home underdog, going  5-0 ATS in his L/5 opportunities . 

BALTIMORE is 37-21 ATS against AFC East division opponents.BALTIMORE is 5-1 straight up against BUFFALO since 1992 at home. 

It must be noted that \NFL Home dogs with a moneyline in the +125 to +155 own a strong  23-11 (68%) conversion rate  straight dating back 17 seasons. 

NFLFavorites (BUFFALO) - solid team - out-gaining their opponents by 0.75 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are are 12-52 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Baltimore to cover 

Miami's QB Tua Tagovailoa’s  has a banged up ankle , but if the Dolphins man under center can not go, Teddy Bridgewater should not be underestimated as a road dog as his  23-9 ATS mark as a  pup would indicate. Note"Teddy Bridgewater has defeated the Bengals two of three times he has faced them.The Fins are 3-0 on the season, and found a way to beat a top tier Buffalo Bills squad this season behind strong receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and are built to give the Bengals secondary fits. Im betting on the Bengals Super Bowl  hangover to hamper them again this week vs a well conditioned side on  short rest.

 Miami is 17-5 SU L/22 meetings in this series. 

Miami is 15-3 ATS L/18 as non division road dogs of 5 points or less.

Miami is 4-0 L/4 vs AFC. 

NFLHome favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CINCINNATI) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 8-37 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Miami to cover

Dallas QB Cooper Rush 2-0 SUATS in his career and I wont be surprised by another win here vs the NY Giants this Monday night.  I know the Giants are 2-0 thanks to two close wins, but if history repeats itself thats not a good omen for a Gmen franchise that is just 2-8 SU/ATS when coming off consecutive victories. I know the Giants have revenge for two straight losses in this series but once again negative numbers appear when in redemption mode as they failed to cover 8 of their L/9 when in Double revenge. 

DALLAS is 6-0 ATS  versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.  DALLAS is 8-1 ATS (in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.

McCarthy is 17-3 ATS  in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points in all games he has coached in his career. 

NFL team vs the money line (NY GIANTS) - off a upset win as an underdog, team that had a terrible record last season (25% or less ) playing a team had a winning record last year are 1-31 L/39 seasons for a go against  97% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Home favorites (NY GIANTS) - poor team from last season - outscored by opponents by 4 or more points/game, versus division opponents are 16-42 ATS L/39 seasons for a go against  73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Dallas Cowboys  to cover 

For the second week in a row the Falcons blew a chance for victory and lost the game with minutes left on the clock. Could the third time around be a charm. Im betting yes. 

Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Falcons are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.

Seahawks are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 vs. NFC.Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.Seahawks are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

NFL Home favorites (SEATTLE) - in the first month of the season, non-playoff team from prior season who won their last 2 games are 4-24 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Atlanta Falcons to cover/win 

Houston has revenge on board for a loss they suffered to Chicago last season by a 36-7 count and will be motivated to get some redemption and payback this Sunday. 

Chicago last time out only threw the ball 11 times and look woefully awful on offense and the D for all intensive  purposes looks suspect .  Im betting the Bears have problems scoring this season unless something drastic is done and that will be their downfall today.

Texas has covered 4 of the L/5 meetings in this series, and the Bears have shown a propensity for failure after taking on the Packers, losing and failing to cover 6 straight times after Cheese head confrontations. 

Texans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Texans are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

Bears are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Bears are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points which was the case vs the Packers last Thursday night in a DD loss. 

Play on Houston to cover 

The Bengals looked to be in Super Bowl  hungover mode in their first two games of the season , but today Im betting they have an edge against a Jets side that is off a emotional come from behind upset win vs Cleveland last week. The combination of the Bengals being very hungry here, and the Jets batteries being drained Im expecting a conclusive Cincinnati victory and cover. 

NY JETS are 1-11 ATS  after 2 straight games with 40 or more pass attempts.

NFL team vs the money line (NY JETS) - off a upset win as an underdog, team that had a terrible record last season (25% or less) playing a team that  had a winning record last year are 31-1 L/39 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +12.7 which qualifies on the ATS offering. 

Play on the Cincinnati Bengals to cover 

The Colts are off a ugly 24-0 loss to the Jaguars last week and are now in redemption mode and will be primed to pull off an upset  vs a strong looking KC side.  Colts QB Ryan owns a 11-5 SUATS career record against AFC West opp , including 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS as a under dog. If Mahomes and company get the win here Im betting it wont come easily making getting points essential here.

NFL home dogs off a shut loss are 12-2-1 ATS L/15 in their follow up game. 

INDIANAPOLIS is 16-6 ATS  as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. INDIANAPOLIS is 10-2 ATS off a division game over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Underdogs or pick (INDIANAPOLIS) - good offensive team from last season - scored 24 or more points/game are 46-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Indianapolis to cover 

I personally believe we have an over reaction to the Cowboys losing their starting QB Prescott for a under determined amount of time because of a hand injury. I know Cincinnati is a strong team, but Joe Burrows   behind a revamped OLine registered a career-high 5 turnovers in last week’s loss to the Steelers and could face pressure again vs a Dallas side that still exhibits a top tier D. In n my humble opinion the Bengals are  vulnerable and we have  a viable investment opportunity backing the underdog Cowboys. 

Defending Super Bowl losers are just  37-62-5 ATS as non-division road chalk.

The Cowboys are a long-term 40-20-1 ATS L/61 as a home underdog . 

DALLAS is 39-23 ATS after a loss by 14 or more points since 1992.

NFL Underdogs or pick (DALLAS) - excellent passing team from last season - averaged 275 or more passing yards/game, after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 34-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Dallas to cover 

The Browns miraculously ended a  17-game winless - opening streak  games with a late 58 yard FG with  8 seconds remaining for a 26-24 victory  at Carolina last Sunday much to my chagrin. Despite of that improbable hyperbole victory Im going against the Browns this week. After watching Baker Mayfield struggle behind a offensive line that looked ragged it actually not a hard decision to fade the Browns here vs a under rated NY Jets D that played tough against Baltimore last week despite of losing. 

CLEVELAND is 0-6 ATS  after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons and have failed to cover 6 of their L/7 at home as 3 or more point favorite. 

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CLEVELAND) - marginal losing team from last season who won 40-49% of their games, in conference games are just 14-39 ATS L/39 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on NY Jets to cover 

Carolina lost a 26-24 heart breaker on a 58 yard FG with under 8 seconds left on the clock to Cleveland last week, but Im betting on a bounce back effort here vs public favorite the NY Giants this week, another side that snatched a victory late by a 21-20 count. 

The Giants are just  4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 games when favored and , are just  1-7-1 ATS in non-division tilts. 

NFLHome favorites (NY GIANTS) - team that had a losing record last season, in conference games are 97-163 ATS L/39 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors. 

Tom Brady is still undefeated in his career vs the Dallas Cowboys with a 7-0 record after last weeks win by a 19-3 count. Brady was not prolific but still found a way to win behind a top tier D. This week however, I expect Tom to have some regression, something he has done in the past after covering by DDs on the road and than going into successive away tilts , as is evident by failing to cover in his L/6 opportunities. Last season the Saints took out the Bucs both times they met them and despite of having  revenge on board, things  are far from automatic vs a Saints team that has proven it knows how to handle Brady and company. It must be noted that the Bucs are just 1-6 ATS L/7 on the road in a double revenge scenario.

The Saints have won SU 8 of their L/9 and have cashed  9 straight  as conference home dogs against  .800 + opponents and are 7-1 ATS L/8 in this series. 

NFL Home teams (NEW ORLEANS) - off a win against a division rival, in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season are 39-14 ATS L/39 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on New Orleans to cover 

Jags were able to move the ball decently in their loss to the Commodores last week and should be able to move the chains again vs a Colts team off a tough grinding game last week vs Houston. 

Jaguars have won seven consecutive home games against the Colts in Duval County.

Jags are 12-1 ATS in this series, including 5-0 ATS the last five games and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation today.

Todays weather is expected to be in the 80s in Jacksonville with high humidity and this will favor the Jags who are more accustomed to this heat than a Colts side that plays their games in a dome. 

Play on Jacksonville to cover 

The upgrades to Denver Broncos football and the so called rebuilding of the Seattle Seahawks has the public hands down backing the visitors tonight. However, in my sometimes contrarian ways Im instead going with the home dog. I know newly acquired Broncos QB  Russell Wilson knows  his former team the Seahawks well, but likewise so do the Seahawks know Wilson well and his mode of operation and his weaknesses. As far as preseason football goes, I was not impressed by the Broncos, and their coaching staff. I really feel their are alot of kinks that need to be ironed out, for this Denver franchise to show the upward momentum expected of them  making getting points with the home side a better deal than many might expect .Carroll is 21-11 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of SEATTLE.Carroll is 50-29 ATS   as an underdog as the coach of SEATTLE.Carroll is 14-5 ATS  in home games in September games as the coach of SEATTLE.

Denver 3-11-1 ATS L/14 Monday nighters.

Monday night chalk in game 1 of the season are just 19-39-1 ATS L/42 seasons.

Play on Seattle to cover  

Off season moves by Jags has  WR Christian Kirk,  in the lineup giving QB Lawrence the best receiver he’s played with in his NFL career and Im betting as long as they both stay healthy they will have a productive on field relationship that will aid the Jags offense greatly . 

Expected QB matchup Wentz vs Lawrence. 

Historical Trends: 

WASHINGTON is 16-36 ATS  in home games in September games since 1992.WASHINGTON is 44-75 ATS  as a home favorite since 1992.

Commanders are 17-35-1 ATS in their last 53 games as a home favorite.Commanders are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.Commanders are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in September.

Jacksonville Jags to cover 

The Panthers will start Baker Mayfield this week against a Cleveland side that will start back up QB  Jacoby Brissett instead of the suspended DeShaun Watson. Im betting Mayfield will want a grain of redemption here to prove to the Browns what they gave up on. Note: Brissett has lost 23 of his 37 NFL starts for a go against 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Bottom line: The Panthers   with a motivated  Baker in the lineup , and 
RB  Christian McCaffrey finally 100%  and an upgraded offensive line and a defense that lead the NFC last season the advantage here today resides with Carolina at home.  Cleveland is just  1-29-1 SU  in season openers since  1999 and are fade material here for me in this opener. 

Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in September.

Play on Carolina to win 

The defending Super Bowl Champions the LA Rams host the Buffalo Bills in both sides opening tilt of the regular season this Thursday night. At the time of me releasing this selection the Bills are getting most of the publics support, but head coach Sean McVay and company have proved very competitive out of the gate in the recent past posting a 5-0 SU/ATS record in game 1 of the season and must not be underestimated. Buffalo barley eked out a 35-32 win during the 2020 campaign  at home when these teams played and will be lucky in my opinion to get the job done again vs a top tier side that demands respect from opponents. 

Rams are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 1.Rams are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games in September.

Defending Super Bowl champions are 5-0 ATS as home dogs in the  first six games of the season dating back 42 seasons..

NFL Underdogs or pick (LA RAMS) - good offensive team from last season - scored 24 or more points/game are 43-16 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on LA Rams to cover 

The Bengals have covered seven straight games  entering this  Super Bowl game vs the LA Rams. Key Bengals component QB Joe Burrow is 12-4 ATS vs. above .500 opponents, making him the most profitable QB in NFL since he was drafted No. 1 overall in 2020.  This kid is  as cold as ice, and is not intimidated by the spot light of big games , as the Heisman Trophy winner has a CFB national championship under his belt and key NFL play off victories . Burrows is   (13-2-1 ATS in his NFL career as  +2.5 dog  or more points) 

Bengals HC Taylor is 12-7 SUATS in games when the Bengals own a .500 or greater record, including 6-1 ATS as an away dog. 

NFL Super Bowl teams  like the Bengals coming off a win as an underdog of more than three points are 11-3-1 ATS dating back 42 seasons. 

Cincinnati has taken on  9 playoff squads this season, going 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS. 

 Teams like the Bengals  with the lower win percentage are 11-4 SU and 14-1 ATS in the last 15 Super Bowls . 

From a overall perspective my data suggests that this game could easily be won by a FG or less, but when the money is down, Ill key on Burrows as the savior and ultimate profit maker for us today. 

   The Rams QB  Matthew Stafford entered this season 23-57 (28.85) SU in his career vs. teams above .500 and even though he is at home, is not a viable favorite according to my projections considering his streaky history. 

The 49ers enter this game matching up very well vs their hosts the L A Rams as HC Sean McVay  has 6 straight win this this series and obviously knows how to get the job done vs Shanahan and company. Note:  SF QB Garappolo is 12-2 ATS as a dog of less than five points in his career and despite of average numbers in the play offs remains a dangerous QB who at any time could explode for a big day. I know  Rams QB Stafford has looked tremendous for the Rams in the post season, but hes a very streaky player, and here against a strong SF D that in its best form the of the season, the sledding could get very rough. 

SAN FRANCISCO is 8-2 ATS  vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season this season. SAN FRANCISCO is 7-0 ATS   in January games over the last 3 seasons. 

49ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.49ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC.

SAN FRANCISCO is 20-8 ATS vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game in the second half of the season. 

NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (18-23 PPG) after 8 or more games, after scoring and allowing 14 pts or less points are 31-9 ATS L/39 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Underdog is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

Play on the SF 49ers to cover 

AFC Playoffs - Divisional

These  two top tier teams, go head to head in the play offs and Im betting the difference maker will be home field advantage. The Chiefs knocked off the Bills in last years play offs and despite of the Bills getting revenge earlier this season still matchup very well here according to my power rankings. Note:KC QB  Murray  is 7-2 in his play off history, with both losses vs the king Tom Brady. Bills are  3-0 at home and 0-3 away in the playoffs under Sean McDermott.

BUFFALO is 3-13 ATS  in road games after 4 or more consecutive wins. 

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (KANSAS CITY) - off 5 or more consecutive overs, excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game are 26-6 ATS L/39 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

  NFL road team in the Divisional Round of the playoffs coming off a victory of 25-plus points (Buffalo) if  going against a .750 or less opponent (KC) are just 0-7 ATS dating back 42 seasons. 

.Play on the KC Chiefs to cover 

NFC Playoffs - Divisional

TB  super star and king of the NFL QB Tom Brady is 0-2 just  SUATS vs the Rams while he has been with the  Bucs  with both defeats coming as a favorite. It's never an easy decision to play against Brady but I feel we have an edge taking points with a Rams  side that slowly pushed itself in top form as the season progressed. Buccaneers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as a favorite.

Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC.Rams are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall and are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog.

NFL Road teams (LA RAMS) - in a game involving two excellent offensive teams (>=370 YPG) after 8+ games, after out-gaining opp by 100 or more total yards in their previous game are 34-10 ATS L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate.

Rams are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings.Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.Rams are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Tampa Bay.

Play on the LA Rams to cover 

AFC Playoffs - Divisional

Bengals second-year quarterback Joe Burrow is the real deal . He set a  franchise record  in passing yards (4,611) and touchdown passes (34) this season while completing an NFL-best 70.4 percent of his attempts. I know the return of Titans star RB Derrick  Henry is expected  , but he will have a ton of rust on him and he is possibly still not 100%. It being touted that burrows does not have NFL play off experience, but he proved the naysayers wrong last week, and its not like he has not completed for championships before , so I doubt very much he will be intimidated. Advantage Bengals getting points. 

Bengals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.Bengals are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Bengals are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.CINCINNATI is 12-4 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.

Titans are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff home games.

NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TENNESSEE) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after 3 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 13-37 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

Play on the Cincinnati to cover 

NFC Playoffs - Wild Card

I was not going to touch this one, but when the line got down to a FG I had to bite on what Im betting is the better team playing at home.  

First off Murray does not look 100% , and while Stafford is probably also not in great shape overall, because of the some of the punishment he took hes in a better portion to succeed tonight as he does not need to consistently scramble to make plays. 

The Rams have won and covered 5 of the L/6 meetings and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation tonight. ( Rams are also 8-1-1 ATS L/10 in this series) Favorite is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.

ARIZONA is 1-8 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more  yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.Kingsbury is 4-13 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season as the coach of ARIZONA.

LA RAMS are 25-13 ATS  against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

NFLUnderdogs of +140 to +325 vs. the money line (ARIZONA) - after 1 or more consecutive losses, when playing on Monday night are 2-31 L/5 seasons for a go against 94% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at -9.4 which qualifies on this ATS line. 

Play on the LA Rams to cover 

NFC Playoffs - Wild Card

The Cowboys explosive  offense goes against a staunch defense ranked second in the league against the rush and fifth in the league in sacks with 48. On the flip side the 49ers, have won 8 of their L/10 overall and must also  not be underestimated from a offensive perspective behind Jimmy Garoppolo and have an overall edge here according to my projections. 

DALLAS is 1-8 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. 

Dallas is 3-10 SU/ATS in the playoffs dating back 25 seasons , including 1-6 ATS as a favorite. 

DALLAS is 14-34 ATS  after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games . 

NFL Road teams (SAN FRANCISCO) - in a game involving two excellent offensive teams (370 or more  YPG) after 8+ games, after outgaining opp by 100 or more total yards in their previous game are 33-10 ATS L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Home teams (DALLAS) - solid team - outgaining their opponents by 50 or more yards/game, after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 23-52 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate.

Play on SF 49ers to cover 

The Bills beat up on the Pats towards the end of the season, but that was a learning experience for Mac Jones and company, and with a future HOF coach like Bellichick on the sidelines Im confident  positive adjustments can be made. We have to remember prior to that the Pats took a 14-10 win on the road  in Buffalo on Dec 16th where the franchise is 15-3 ATS L/18 visits.  Note:  NEW ENGLAND L/109 games as a road underdog  and have seen the average ppg diff click in at -1.7. 

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (BUFFALO) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 9-39 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against  81% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL  Underdogs or pick (NEW ENGLAND) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games in the second half of the season are 31-8 ATS L/39 seasons for a  80% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (NEW ENGLAND) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games are 29-7 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Road team is 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 meetings.Underdog is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings. 

Play on New England Pats to cover 

 The Rams QB Stafford  is not seeing the field well as was evident last week when the threw  another  pick-six  , and now has  seven turnovers in the last three trips to the gridiron . Stafford is  infamously streaky and his form is not where it should be entering this game against the SF 49ers.   . Meanwhile, the Niners who have won the stats battles in 7 of their L/8 overall have urgency attached to this affair and will be very motivated to snatch a SU win as a victory or a loss by the Saints,  will get them a post season wild card position . From a matchup perspective the Niners took out  Los Angeles, 31-10, as a 3.5-point home underdog back in November, and  have been a ATS machine for their backers after they  covered  the L/3  meetings in this series.  SAN FRANCISCO is 5-0 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (SAN FRANCISCO) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 37-8 L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL team vs the money line (LA RAMS) - revenging a road loss against opponent by 14 points or more, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 24-3 L/39 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LA RAMS) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 9-38 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the SF 49ers to cover 

Both these teams are done for the season, after today, and Im betting we wont see alot of motivation other than the revenge scenario the Gemn have for a 1 point loss they suffered to the Football team back in Sept. What I do expect is for both coaches to try to find a way to finish their season with some positives, via some slight structural renovations to their systems. In this type of affair, taking points with a home dog is a strong wagering opportunity . Note:  NY GIANTS are 9-1 ATS in home games revenging an extremely close loss against opponent by 3 points or less. 

Football Team are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite.

Football Team are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC East.

Football Team are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY GIANTS) - slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 17 points or less in 3 straight games are 1160-96 L/39 seasons for a 62% conversion rate.

NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing 1 or less turnovers/game, after a game where they forced no turnovers are 26-56 ATS L/10 seasons for last 10 seasons for a go against  68% conversion rate for bettors.

  Cleveland is off two very close losses by 2 points each time and are desperate for a victory and despite of now being eliminated from the playoffs but  are still a side that needs to finish strongly and play spoilers . Meanwhile, Pittsburgh was crushed by the Chiefs last time out , but still can win the AFC North. Needless to say this is a big game for the Steelers but because of their ineptness this  will be a grinding affair with getting  points in my opinion being golden. Browns are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games in January.

Note: the Steelers have now been held without a TD in the first half of 5 consecutive games and these slow starts are a game killers and Im betting it could easily rare its ugly head again tonight. Plus I cant help but feel Steelers QB Ben Rothlisberger is not longer a top tier pivot as father time  remains undefeated. 

Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.Steelers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite.Steelers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. Steelers are 0-6 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

NFL Underdogs on the opening l vs. the money line (PITTSBURGH) - off a road loss, when playing on Monday night are 1-24 L/5 seasons for a go against 96% conversion rate for bettors. 

 NFL team vs the money line (PITTSBURGH) - average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 5-30 L/5 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Road teams (CLEVELAND) - off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season. are 27-6 ATS L/29 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play in Cleveland to cover 

The Seahawks are not going to play offs, and will now be in a emotional down situation here this week vs a rejuvenated Detroit side that will motivated to finish their season on a strong note. Note: Seattle probably does not deserve a play off spot anyway, considering they have lost the stats battles in 12 of 15 games.  this seasons ,by an average -82 net ypg. 

Seattle is 0-5 ATS in their last five battles against the NFC North.  The Lions are 5-1 ATS record in NFC West game and have covered four straight vs NFC.  Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. Seahawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 17.

DETROIT is 6-0 ATS  vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season this season. DETROIT is 8-2 ATS  in games played on turf this season.

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (SEATTLE) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 15-45 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against  75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Seattle to cover 

Since star RB   Derrick Henry  went on the IR the Titans have been in a bit of nose dive, and until he returns things wont get much better including today against a up trending Dolphins side that is on a 7 game win streak. Note : NFL sides on a 7 game win streak,  are on a  12-1 ATS run  when coming off a non-division victory. (Miami beat NO last week 20-3). 

Tennessee has had problems scoring since Henry went down, and recently during a 5 game run have averaged just 15.8 ppg in offense. On the flipside the Fins have allowed just one side more than 17 points in their L/7 games overall. 

MIAMI is 12-3 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. MIAMI is 9-1 ATS  after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. 

TENNESSEE is 20-35 ATS  as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

NFL team vs the money line (TENNESSEE) - average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 5-35 L/5 seasons for a go against  86% conversion rate. 

Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

Play on Miami to cover 

The Jags are on a 7 game losing streak and have failed to cover 6 straight times, but here I am recommending we take the points . This offering from a mathematical standpoint according to my projections is a almost a full FG off , giving us value taking points. Last week the Pats got a reality check against the Bills in a loss and  QB Mac Jones showed his relative immaturity in that loss. Desperation and some sort of redemption for this Jaguars side Im betting has them leaving everything on the field this Sunday. 

Jaguars have covered 3 of their L/4 as 13 or more points pups dating back to last season. 

Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (JACKSONVILLE) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 37-7 L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Jacksonville Jaguars to cover 

Jared Goff  went  21-of-26 for 216 yards and three touchdowns in  the Lions  30-12 win against the  Arizona  Cardinals last week as 13-point home underdog, which was the Lions 2nd victory in 3 games. Now with momentum on their sides, Im betting they once again stand tall against a Atlanta team that has not liked playing in their new digs , where they are 0-5 this season while averaging just 13.2 ppg in offense while allowing 28 ppg which clicks in at - 14.8 ppg diff. Nothing comes easy for the Falcons and if they break their home losing streak it wont come easily if at all which has me recommending we take the points here.

 ATLANTA is 1-9 ATS  in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. Falcons are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC.

Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC and  are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. 

Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings. Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. 

Play on the Detroit Lions to cover 

Ok Get ready this is a plug your nose special. Im betting the stench of the Urban Meyer experiment has cleared. With that said,  Jacksonville will be ready to start a new chapter and in the short term at least show some motivational progress vs a Jets team that could also use some air  freshener  and a proverbial deep cleaning.  Both these teams struggle to score, but the difference maker comes on defense where I feel the edge goes to the Jags . Note: Jacksonville is 8-0 ATS as a underdog against AFC East opposition , including 4-0 SUATS L/4. Jets are 3-10 ATS L/14 at home as 4 or less point home favs. 

NY JETS are 1-10 ATS L/10 in home games vs. struggling  teams - outscored by 10+ points per game on the season.  NY JETS are 0-7 ATS  after allowing 25 points or more in 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons. NY JETS are 4-16 ATS  off a road cover where the team lost as an underdog.

NFL  team vs the money line (NY JETS) - bad team - outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 30 points or more in 3 straight games are 3-25 L/5 seasons for a 89% go against conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Home teams (NY JETS) - average offensive team (4.9 to 5.4 YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.4 to 5.8 YPP) are 20-47 ATS L/5 seasons for go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Jacksonville to cover 

After a fast start to their season, the Cardinals are now just 3-4 SU/ATS L/7 and not in good form entering this tilt vs the under rated Colts. It seems ever since JJ Watt went down so did the chemistry of the Arizona  defense. With some key injures on offense for the Cards ie( Hopkins), and  a bruised and banged up QB Murray looking less than 100% the Colts look like a very viable option here behind star RB Johnathon Taylor. Im betting the Colts pound their way to a road win and continue their upward momentum after ending the Pats 7 game win streak last time out. Note: Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog. Colts are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.

Injury updates: Colts 3 of 5  starting offensive lineman  will miss this game -Quinton Nelson (COVID list), Mark Glowinski (COVID list), and Ryan Kelly (personal)- which has moved this line . When handicapping this game 2 of these guys were part of my assessments . It must be noted that the replacements for the Colts are fresher, almost equally talented as the starters.

INDIANAPOLIS is 9-1 ATS  in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons. INDIANAPOLIS is 9-1 ATS   in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons. Reich is 11-0 ATS in road games after having won 2 out of their last 3 games as the coach of INDIANAPOLIS.

ARIZONA is 0-7 ATS   versus good offensive teams - averaging 350  or more yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. ARIZONA is 1-8 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Cardinals are 9-23 ATS in their last 32 games as a home favorite.Cardinals are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games.

NFL Underdogs vs. the money line (ARIZONA) - after allowing 30 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half are 2-37 L/38 seasons for a go against  95% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Indianapolis to cover 

I know how strong a side TB is but after last weeks record setting event behind future HOG QB Tom Brady that saw them pull out a win in OT vs Buffalo Im betting  will now have this team in a natural letdown spot.  Meanwhile, Saints  remain in the playoff  hunt after their  victory on the road vs  the Jets last week and have motivation and momentum entering this tilt. Note: The Saints are  6-1 ATS in their last seven division r away games. I know which side is the better group, but the great thing about spread betting is that there are edges to be had, taking points with under rated sides. This Im betting is one of them. 

NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS  in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.NEW ORLEANS is 9-1 ATS  in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game over the last 3 seasons.

NFL  away team in a tilt  in Sunday Night events  that is coming off a victory of more than 10 points  and than going against  opposition  coming off a pair of wins who won 10 or more games last year are 11-1-1 ATS L/41 seasons. 

NFLHome favorites (TAMPA BAY) - with an incredible offense - averaging 385 or more total yards/game, after gaining 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 12-36 L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on New Orleans to cover 

 The Broncos  honored  the late Demaryius Thomas who  suddenly died at age 33 the week of this game vs Detroit. The Broncos left everything on the field that day as they took out the banged up  Lions by a 38-10 count. Now in a huge emotional letdown state I betting they will not have the energy needed to get the.cover here vs a Bengals side that is desperate for a win. Note: Bengals QB Joe Burrows is a perfect 3-0 ATS when this team is off 2 consecutive losses.

Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.Bengals are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Denver.

Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC. 

Cincinnati to cover 

Urban Meyer’s  short and ugly tenure here in Jacksonville looks to be almost completed .  Its been a horrendous season ,  Meyer has blamed his coaching staff for the problems which has put the entire team in disarray. The Jags have now lost 5 straight and really don't deserve to be this big a favorite , not even against another slumping side the Houston Texans. ....Advantage Texans. 

HOUSTON is 14-4 ATS L/18 after scoring 14 points or less in 2 straight games.

JACKSONVILLE is 0-6 ATS in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

JACKSONVILLE is 0-6 ATS after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game over the last 2 seasons. JACKSONVILLE is 2-16 ATS L/18 in home games off 3 or more consecutive unders.

NFL Underdogs or pick (HOUSTON) - after a game where they committed no turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 25-3 ATS L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Texans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Jacksonville. The underdog has cashed 4 of the L/5 meetings.

Play on Houston to cover 

Indianapolis has won 4 of their L/5 with the one loss coming to defending champion Tampa Bay by a 38-31 count. Meanwhile, the Pats have been the storyline in the NFL this season, as Bill Belichick cements his future HOF status. The Pats enter this game on a 6 game road winning run, but with said, all good and bad streaks must eventually come to an end and Im betting thats the case here in Indy today.  Ive kept a close eye on the Colts, and after watching them decimate the Bills, Ive come to the conclusion that they are very under rated and with the publics attention squarely on the Pats Ill lay the light lumber with the home side at under a FG. Right or wrong the sharp money will flow into the Colts column. Colts are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

 Home team has covered 5 of the L/6 meetings in this series.

INDIANAPOLIS is 11-2 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. over the last 2 season.

NFL  team (NEW ENGLAND) - off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog, when playing on a Saturday are 9-32 ATS L/38 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Indianapolis to cover 

The Chiefs  during their current six-game winning streak, have forced 16 turnovers and allowed an average of 311.7 yards and just 10.9 ppg. The D, is merging at a high level with the offense, and in their current form are in top form and a formidable opponent for the Chargers . Add to that Reid and company have revenge on board for a loss suffered in last September back in KC and you have a viable favorite to back this Thursday night. Reid is 21-8 ATS in road games revenging a home loss against opponent in all games he has coached .

The Chiefs have won seven straight road games against the Chargers. 

Note:  Road favorites in ’ Thursday games have  won by an average of  -10.1 points per game this season. Rinse and repeat bet here in motion  with the Favorite. 

KANSAS CITY is 7-0 ATS vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game over the last 2 seasons.KANSAS CITY is 7-0 ATS after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Reid is 7-0 ATS  after 3 straight wins by 10 or more points as the coach of KANSAS CITY.

LA CHARGERS are 2-13 ATS after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.LA CHARGERS are 1-9 ATS  after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Home teams (LA CHARGERS) - out-gaining opponent by 70 or more passing yards/game on the season, after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 13-36 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on KC Chiefs to cover 

Arizona QB Murray is an exciting athlete, and this sometimes overshadows his teams overall performances especially on D , where they have been out-yarded in 3 of their L/5 games. Add to that Arizonas 1-7 ATS record in its L/7 tilts  as a division host, and you have what Im betting against is an over rated side. Meanwhile, the Rams after a rough run -came out last time out with a get right effort winning by a 37-7 vs Jacksonville and now have momentum heading in this prime time tilt. 

Note: Arizona has failed to cover  10 of their L/12 at  home on Monday Nights . Cardinals HC Kingsbury is 0-4 SU/ATS L/4 at home as a 6 or less point favorite. 

McVay is 10-2 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games as the coach of LA RAMS. McVay is 21-11 ATS  in road games against conference opponents as the coach of LA RAMS. Rams are 4-0 SU/ATS L/4 divisional battles and have won their L/2 visits to Arizona and are 8-1 ATS L/9 meetings overall in this series.

ARIZONA is 0-6 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 350  or more yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. ARIZONA is 0-6 ATS  in home games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons

NFL Road underdogs or pick (LA RAMS) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games are 27-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Rams to cover 

This tilt  behind top tier sides Buffalo and Tampa Bay has the makings of game that will decided late and by one score, most probably a FG according to the linesmakers, making getting the hook with the points a strong opportunity for bankroll expansion. Tom Brady is the marquee name in this tilt, and lives with a cloak of invincibility around him, but he's not made of titanium, and eventually father time will get the best of him. Actually Ive noticed his legs have let him down on more than one occasion the last few seasons, and today vs a fast and explosive Buffalo D, his lack of mobility wont allow him the time he usually gets . What Im saying is that if TB wins it wont come easily. Advantage on the line goes to the Bills. 

BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

The Buccaneers have been favored by 3.5 points or more 10 times this season and are 5-5 ATS in those contests. Buccaneers are 3-10-2 ATS in their last 15 games in Week 14.

 Buffalo is 5-2 overall, and 5-2 against the spread, on the road.The Bills are 4-2 ATS as 3.5-point underdogs or more on the road.

NFL Underdogs or pick (BUFFALO) - off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 48-19 ATS L/39 seasons for a 72%. conversion rate for bettors. Note: Bills are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.

Play on Buffalo to cover

Both Cincinnati and San Francisco are both off losses. I thought the 49ers should have won their game vs Seattle , and deserve respect here on the road as essentially a pickem vs a Cincinnati team that is off a less than cohesive loss, and downtrending in my power rankings, especially with QB Joe Burrows hand injury( pinky finger). Todays difference maker will come via both sides offenses where the Bengals rank 24th in their passing game  and just  20th with their ground attack. While the 49ers are fourth via the pass  and ranked  sixth with their run game. 

SAN FRANCISCO is 21-7 ATS off an upset loss as a road favorite

CINCINNATI is 0-6 ATS  in home games versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more  yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Play on San Francisco to cover 

QB Cam Newton  of the Panthers looked horrendous last time out going   5-for-21 for 92 yards in a 33-10 loss to the Dolphins and the coaching staff said they wont make any changes this week. This reminds me of statement by Albert Einstein, that went something like this " doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results is a form of insanity. Yes, maybe Im exaggerating a bit, but thats how I feel about that decision, and feel strongly that the Falcons prove me right this week, at least from a cover standpoint. Note: The Last 14 times that Newton has been the favorite the Panthers have only covered 3 times. I know Atlanta may not inspire bettors, but  have been money in the bank from a historical perspective in this series going 9-2 SU/ATS . Note: Yes, the Panthers are well rested and off a bye but the Falcons have cashed 4 of their L/5 against these types of teams. 

CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS in home games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. CAROLINA is 3-12 ATS  in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Road underdogs (ATLANTA) - in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40 to 49%) are 23-4 ATS L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home teams (CAROLINA) - average offensive team (4.9 to 5.4 YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.4 to 5.8 YPP) are 17-46 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Atlanta  to cover 

This is just to many points even though the Texans don't look like a viable side to back , especially if you watched their last game where they were shutout .  But pros do not like to be embarrassed and Im betting on a semblance of a bounce back here from the Texans at home. You have to remember Seattle has not looked good recently  despite of finding the win column last time out  and have been out-yarded in each of its last 11 trips to the gridiron this season. Bottom line no matter which way I slice it and handicap this game, this is just to many points to pass up on  with the pup as the favorite is just being plain over rated. Note: HC Carrol is 1-5 ATS L/6 as a 3 or more road fav and has covered just 5 of this L/16 coming off a SU underdog win. 

HOUSTON is 14-3 ATS L/17 after scoring 14 points or less in 2 straight games.  HOUSTON is 17-6 ATS L/23 in home games off a home loss. 

SEATTLE is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. SEATTLE is 0-7 ATS in road games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons

NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (HOUSTON) - a horrible offensive team (14 or less  PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG), after scoring 14 points or less in 2 straight games are 54-22 ATS L/38 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Houston to cover 

Pittsburgh is off a huge win last time vs Baltimore to keep their play off hopes alive but now they will be caught in an emotional letdown spot vs a Minnesota Viking side that is desperate for a win after back to back losses including one to formerly winless Detroit last time out. Note: Vikings Zimmer is  25-7-1 ATS  in non-division tilts in his career when coming off a defeat, including 11-1 ATS against  AFC opposition. Zimmer is 13-3 ATS after a loss by 3 or less points as the coach of MINNESOTA.

NFL team (PITTSBURGH) - off an upset win as a home underdog, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season are 4-24 ATS L/38 seasons for a go against  86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover 

I dont usually take huge favs, rarely if ever actually, but this is one of those occasions . The Rams are extremely frustrated right now after 4 straight losses, and need a win badly to get back some long lost respect. Meanwhile, Jacksconville behind QB Lawrence and a less than cohesive offense wont be able to do much damage here this week, while the Rams no matter who is under center (Stafford or Walford) are more than capable of pounding the Jags and getting them selves right again. The Jacksonville Jaguars are 1-15 ATS in their last 16 games against the NFC West, including 0-9 ATS as an under- dog. Rams are 5-0 ATS L/5 in this series.

LA Rams to cover 

I know how amazing  and maybe also a little lucky the Dolphins have looked of late , as they have garnered four straight wins, but it must be noted that  NYG own a 12-3 ATS record in their last fifteen games as a road dog   and have cashed   16 of 20 ATS  as a dog vs the  AFC East . With that said, and not focusing on historical biases, I really like the way the Gmens D is playing, and Im betting they wreak havoc on Tua Tagovailoa and company. Also on the flip-side, despite of a maligned Giants offensive line QB  Daniel  Jones  has remained minimally consistent enough to make the Giants competitive and considering Jones is 12-6 ATS in his career as a visitor I feel we have enough line value to pull the trigger on the road side. 

NYG is 3-0 SU/ATS L/3 visits to Miami. 

 GIANTS are 13-4 ATS  when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. Giants are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

NFL Home teams (MIAMI) - after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season are 8-30 ATS L/38 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MIAMI) - after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 5-25 ATS L/38 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on NY Giants to cover 

After jumping out to a  a 7-0 lead last week the Vikings fell asleep at the proverbial wheel and ,  lost by a 34-12  score to the  Niners last Sunday. Im betting that was an emotional letdown spot performance, after a huge win vs a very good Green bay side the week before. Now in redemption mode after that embarrassment Im betting on a motivated performance here by a red faced group vs a Detroit team that is extremely lucky to be even covering spreads of late. 

MINNESOTA is 5-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Road teams (MINNESOTA) - excellent passing team (265 or more  PY/G) against a poor passing defense (230-265 PY/G) after 8+ games, after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 23-3 ATS L/10 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Minnesota 

Dallas is struggling as is evident by their  1-3 SUATS mark  in their last four tilts , while  allowing   an average of 28 points and 462 yards in the 3 losses. Note: Dallas is 0-7 ATS in games after allowing 35 or more points in its last time out. Meanwhile, New Orleans is also having difficulties having lost 4 straight games. Note: HC Sean Payton has never lost 5 straight games and cashed as an underdog SU/ATS the last two times this negative kind of run has been attached to his record. So Im betting the Saints will be ready to rumble vs a Cowboys side that suddenly does not look as cohesive as it did earlier this season. Payton is 50-20 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game as the coach of NEW ORLEANS.

NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS off a home loss over the last 3 seasons.NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS after scoring 14 points or less last game over the last 3 seasons. Saints are 7-0 ATS in its last seven games as a conference home dog. 

NFL Road teams vs. the money line (DALLAS) - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (335 to 370 YPG) after 8+ games, after allowing 450 or more total yards in their previous game are 6-34 L/38 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Favorites (DALLAS) - good rushing team - averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry, after being out-rushed by 75 or more yards last game are 63-111 ATS L/38 seasons for a 64% go against  conversion rate for bettors.

Play on New Orleans to cover 

Matthew Stafford started the season strong but is now in a bit of a funk so now the entire NFL nation and the parrot broadcasters are all down on him. He has always been streaky but when he's on Stafford can supply alot of high octane downfield offense and that what Im betting on him doing in bounce back fashion this week after a ugly 31-10 loss at SF vs the 49ers a couple weeks ago. Personally I believe the Rams were in a huge letdown spot after a hardcore battle the previous week against Tennessee in a loss but now after a bye week will be well rested and ready for redemption and revenge for last years play off loss  vs the  banged up Packers. So Im not ready to throw the Rams under a bus just yet, and believe they matchup well here vs the Green Bay Packers. Note: Stafford has covered in four of his last five matchups   vs Rodgers, and is  9-3 ATS coming  off a bye week.

Rams are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

LA RAMS are 22-11 ATS  against conference opponents over the last 3 season.

 Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog. Favorite has covered 10 of the L/11 meetings in this series.

 NFL team vs the money line (LA RAMS) - off an embarrassing loss by 21 points or more as a favorite, with a winning record on the season are 22-4 L/10 seasons for a 85% con version rate for bettors.

NFL team vs the money line (LA RAMS) - off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 31-8 L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate.

Play on LA Rams to cover 

Rookie Zach Wilson returns to the lineup after missing four games with a sprained right knee when the Jets visit the Houston Texans in a matchup of 2-8 teams. The rest Im betting did the young man some good, and now Im betting   Wilsons  head  will be cleared enough to try to get some momentum going for him and his team. I know the Jets D is atrocious  and against ground attacks are  allowing 4.6 yards per rush this season, but the truth is this Texans team has almost no offensive flow, so to me they are fade material in a matchup that finally favors the Jets. 

HOUSTON is 18-33 ATS L/51 off a upset win as an underdog. HOUSTON is 1-11 ATS L/12 vs. struggling  teams - outscored by 10+ points per game on the season in the second half of the season . HOUSTON is 1-8 ATS vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return over the last 3 seasons. Texans are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (NY JETS) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 43-18 ATS L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Underdog is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Jets have covered 6 of the L/8 meetings in this series.

Play on the NY Jets to cover 

Both these sides can stop the run, with TB ranking high in that category, but one of these teams is better at stopping the pass and thats the Bucs. The Colts secondary is leaky and thats not a good omen vs what will be a motivated senior citizen in Tom Brady. I know Tampa has not played  up to expectations on the road, but now we are into the nitty gritty part of the season, and this is where Im expecting future HOF QB Brady and company to shine. Colts are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog.

Arians is 15-6 ATS  versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more yards/play as the coach of TAMPA BAY. 

NFL Favorites vs. the money line (TAMPA BAY) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 27-1 L/5 seasons for a 97% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +13.3 ppg which easily qualifies on this short fav ATS line. 

Play on TB to cover 

The Lions have a big reputation as Thanksgiving day money makers, but the truth  it's usually when they are favs that  they shine, but as dogs they have lost 12 straight times and covered only twice losing by an average of 9.8 ppg. I know Chicago may not inspire bettors but they are the superior side, and being very hungry for wins Im betting they dont pass up this opportunity to register a victory. 

Note: The Lions will start one of their woeful backups probably the horrendous looking Boyle this week and are down to just 3 healthy starting offensive lineman , so offensive continuity and  scoring is going to be an issue. I know QB Fields  may also not start for the Bears but to me veteran QB Dalton is a better option anyway . 

NFL Favorites vs. the money line (CHICAGO) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 27-1 SU L/5 seasons for a 97% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at 13.3 ppg which qualifies from a. ATS level as well. 

 NFL Road teams (CHICAGO) - in a game involving two struggling offensive teams (14-18 PPG) after 8 or more games, after a loss by 3 or less points are 21-3 ATS L/38 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL  Road teams (CHICAGO) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games are 32-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Chicago has won 4 of the L/5 meetings in this series and their L/2 visits to Motown .

Play on Chicago Bears to cover

The Giants’ defense is top form and have been really been  stoppers in the last  three weeks giving them the ability to be competitive against any NFL team even the defending Super Bowl champion Bucs . On the flip side, the giants rarely get much push from the offensive line but against shaky TB secondary I expect for some big plays and scores.  With Big Blue getting healthy they are solid bets here to cover vs a Bucs side that is definitely not playing a top level at the moment. . 

Giants are 19-4 ATS L/23 as road underdogs. Judge is 8-1 ATS  in road games against conference opponents as the coach of NY GIANTS. NY GIANTS are 9-1 ATS  in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

TAMPA BAY is 0-6 ATS  against NFC East division opponents over the last 3 seasons. TB has lost 19 of its L/26 SU after two consecutive road losses.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (NY GIANTS) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 35-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road teams (NY GIANTS) - off a home win, a struggling  team, winning 25% to 40% of their games, in the second half of the season  are 46-19 ATS L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

NY Giants to cover 

The Washington football team after upsetting the defending Super Bowl Champs last week will now in a huge emotional letdown situation on the road. It must be noted that sides off a upset of the defending Super Bowl champion by 10 or more points have covered just 3 of the 19 times  when facing a .400 or better side like the Panthers in their  following tilt. With Carolina looking like a viable side to back with Cam Newton or former XFL star QB PJ Walker under center Im recommedning we pull the trigger here and lay a few points with a team that has plenty of momentum and crowd support this Sunday. 

WASHINGTON is 2-9 ATS after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons. Football Team are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.Washington is also 1-6 SU/ATS when coming off an underdog win of 7 or more points. 

NFL Favorites (CAROLINA) - an average defensive team (18 to 23 PPG) against a struggling  defensive team (27 or more  PPG), after scoring 30 points or more last game are 24-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a  83% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Carolina to cover 

The Atlanta Falcons suffered their worst loss in almost 20 years this past Sunday vs Dallas 43-3 and with that said it must be noted pros do not like to be embarrassed. Remember these NFL rosters are made up  of some of the top athletes in the world, and they own  some of the biggest egos on earth. Im expecting a big effort from the entire Falcons group here at home in this  national broadcast tilt and what Ill peg as redemption night in Georgia. I know New England smashed Cleveland last time out by a 45-7 count , but a repeat performance is unlikely here as is Atlanta having another muted offensive effort. 

Patriots are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.Patriots are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight up win.Patriots are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS win.

ATLANTA is 6-0 ATS  after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse over the last 3 seasons.

Atlanta to cover 

The Broncos have won  2 straight games including a big upset on the road against the Dallas Cowboys last week.  Last weeks victory ended a 5 game streak where they lost they stats battle so Im not that impressed by the  surprising win, as their over all work must be considered.

I know Philadelphia may not inspire bettors but QB Jalen Hurts continues to improve, and hes a handful for most defenses, and according to my rankings he matches up well here and should have a good day as a dual threat pivot. Im betting Hurts will be the difference maker today. 

Denver  has failed to cover 16 of their  24 games   as a home favorite in tilts after winning straight-up as a dog, including 1-10-1 ATS  if they are off back to back SUATS wins. DENVER is 17-38 ATS L/55 in home games off a non-conference game. 

NFL team vs the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - mistake-free team 1.25  or less TO/game committed) against a team with 1.25 or less TO/game forced, after 4 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers are 46-14 SU L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (PHILADELPHIA) - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/G committed) vs a team with 1.25 or less TO/G forced after 8+ games, after a game where they committed no turnovers are 23-4 ATS L/39 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Eagles to cover 

The  Buffalo Bills lost in shocking fashion to the Jacksonville Jaguars last time out with a bizarre 9-6 score attached to it.  Buffalo is now 0-3 ATS this season as  double-digit road favorites. I know many expect, the now inconsistent Bills to come out here spitting bullets ,as they look for a quick redemption result, but laying almost two TDs in a divisional road game seems a bit much in my opinion.  Especially  with NYJ incumbent QB Mike White under center. With that said,   the Jets will not easy targets and get my support here getting points as a home dog.    

Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog.Jets are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.Jets are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

NFL Road favorites (BUFFALO) - with a good first half defense - 7 or less points per game, after allowing 14 points or less last game are 8-30 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Favorites of 10.5 or more points (BUFFALO) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 8-29 ATS L/38 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Underdog is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings.

Play on the NY Jets to cover 

RB Adrian Peterson who has lots of miles on him is now the Titans No.1 running back  as  Tennessee’ has to move forward without  the injured  Derrick Henry for at least the rest of the regular season  . That will be a difficult transition for a offense that leans hard on Henry to move the chains. Yes, I know the Titans have played smash mouth football of late against top tier competition, but that kind of action takes a toll on a team, and now this week against the Saints Im betting we see some exhaustion play a part in making the Titans vulnerable home favs. Note: NFL teams like Tennessee off 4 straight underdog wins have covered just 1 of their L/7 opportunities as favs in their followup tilt.  TENNESSEE is also just 3-15 ATS  off an upset win by 10 or more as a road underdog which was the case after a DD win vs the Rams last week. 

NEW ORLEANS is 8-0 ATS   in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more  yards/game over the last 3 seasons. NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS   as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TENNESSEE) - after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 28-62 ATS L/38 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on New Orleans to cover 

,Arizona had their perfect 7-0  season come to an abrupt end last time out and could easily find themselves in an emotional letdown spot.  The Cards are just 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS in games when coming off a SU home chalk loss and have lost 8 of their L/9 overall in tilts after playing against the Green Bay Packers. With QB Jimmy Garoppolo looking healthy and off a strong  performance last time  ( 17-of-28 for 322 yards) I like the 49ers chances in this spot play. With the Niners  4-0 ATS at home in a key division game vs a team off a Thursday night game Im liking our chances.ARIZONA is 1-8 ATS  in the second half of the season over the last 2 season.Underdog is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

Play on SF 49ers to cover 

The Saints are off a huge underdog win vs TB last week and will now be in a emotional  letdown situation. It must be noted that teams that upset  Super Bowl champion as a dog are just 19-36  SU/ATS  bd division opposition  the following game,   when not favored by 7 or more points. I know Atlanta may not inspire bettors but is also must be noted that NEW ORLEANS is 7-23 ATS L/20 in home games vs. struggling teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season. 

NEW ORLEANS is 10-22 ATS  in home games after having won 4 out of their last 5 games

NFL Home teams (NEW ORLEANS) - off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season are 11-34 ATS L/38 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Atlanta to cover 

The Jags do not inspire many bettors, but when value arises I have to bite my pride, and follow the right path. Buffalo is obviously the superior side, but this is just to many points in my humble opinion, especially with Urban Meyer and company looking at this tilt like an opportunity for redemption after a disastrous start to this campaign. 

NFL Road favorites (BUFFALO) - with a good first half defense - 7 or less points per game, after allowing 14 points or less last game are 8-29 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Road favorites (BUFFALO) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after a win by 10 or more points are 19-47 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against  71% conversion rate for bettors.

Jacksonville to cover 

These two teams have lost 7 games in row, and both will desperate for a win here and Im betting it will be a battle to the very end with getting  points being eventually golden. 

HOUSTON is 8-1 straight up against MIAMI and have won 3 of the L/4 visits here . 

NFL Road underdogs or pick (HOUSTON) - after 6 or more consecutive losses, in November games are 44-14 ATS L/38 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (HOUSTON) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are 30-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. 

NFL Home favorites (MIAMI) - a poor offensive team (14-18 PPG) against a horrible defensive team ( 27 PPG or more ), after a loss by 10 or more points are 9-38 ATS L/38 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate. 

Play on Texas to cover 

Denver is off a grinding home win last time out  vs Washington and now come into this game with momentum vs americas team the Dallas Cowboys who are on a 6 game win streak . The Broncos according to my power rankings are being underestimated this week, no matter who starts at QB for the Cowboys ( Prescott or Rush). I know how well the Cowboys have played overall, but from a historical standpoint laying DDs at home vs a non divisional opponent has not been profitable for their backers as they have failed to cover 10 of their L/13 opportunities. Also NFL  road dogs like Denver  coming off a win of 6 or more points are  15-3 ATS so far this season. Denver has also won and covered 3 of their L/4 visits to Dallas to play the Boyz.  

It must also be noted that Denver QB Teddy Bridgewater  away games as an NFL starter,  is a perfect 10-0 ATS versus above .500 opposition and is key here for a Broncos cover.

NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (DENVER) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are 30-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate.

NFL Favorites (DALLAS) - with an incredible offense - averaging 385 or more total yards/game, after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 7-32 ATS L/5 seasons for. ago against 82% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Denver to cover 

Indianapolis is off a frustrating OT loss vs Tennessee last Sunday and could easily find themselves in a letdown spot this Monday night vs a  NY Jets team with a new QB at the helm Mike White who led them to a OT win vs a tough Cincinnati crew by a 34-31 count.  

I know Carson Wentz is a quality QB but he's not consistent enough and has a tendency to fold under pressure more often than not . On the flip-side  the Jets players have said they were very happy when Mike White Lightning came on the field as their new QB  and the entire team Im betting  will play behind him which is important for team chemistry. Momentum and confidence sit on the Jets side of the field. 

Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (NY JETS) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games against opponent after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games are 24-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate.

NFL Home favorites of 10.5 or more points (INDIANAPOLIS) - after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, in weeks 5 through 9 are 17-42 ATS L/38 seasons for a 71% go against conversion rate.

Play on the NY Jets to cover 

Tom Brady and company took out the Saints last season in the NFC playoffs last season, and  now Im betting on a huge revenge scenario to manifest here and for the Saints to come out spitting fire.  Note:  Saints are 11-2-1 ATS as home underdogs L/15 seasons , and failed to cover just once under new  head coach Sean Payton.  New Orleans has owned this series in the regular season going  5-0 SUATS L/5 meetings  and Im betting have the edge again getting points as hosts. 

 Payton is 24-8 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of NEW ORLEANS.

NFL Favorites (TAMPA BAY) - with an incredible offense - averaging 385 or more total yards/game, after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 7-31 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the New Orleans Saints to cover

The Bengals are off a huge underdog win last time out vs the Baltimore Ravens and will find themselves in an emotional letdown spot here vs a ugly home dog in the NY Jets making them vulnerable . Previous to the Bengals win last week, they had not beat an above .500 team so Im not ready to crown them possible super Bowl contenders just yet. With that said, I know it will be tough for many of you to take the points here with the Jets, but with Zach Wilson now on the sidelines for the Jets and Mike White under center Im betting we will see a better version of the Jets this week. White was brilliant in his time with Western Kentucky and must not be underestimated . Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.

NY JETS are 16-6 ATS L/22 after being outgained by 100 or more total yds 2 consecutive games. NY JETS is 7-1 straight up against CINCINNATI since 1992. in NY. 

Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Jets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog.

NFL Favorites (CINCINNATI) - solid team - outgaining their opponents by 0.75 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 14-48 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Jets to cover

I am not disputing which side is the better group, but in a division game a two TD difference is a little over the top. I know how well and how badly each team has played, but this line is bloated according to my power rankings and Im willing to take the points with a clothes pin attached firmly to my nose. Note:  NFL home favorites in division games of 14 or more points are just  48-65-6 ATS L/41 seasons , including a  0-7 L/7 ATS run. 

BUFFALO is 18-33 ATS L/51 after having won 4 out of their last 5 games. 

 NFL Favorites (BUFFALO) - solid team - out-gaining their opponents by 0.75 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 14-48 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Road underdogs or pick (MIAMI) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games against opponent after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games are 23-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Dolphins to cover 

After back to back underdogs wins vs Buffalo and Kansas City Im betting the Titans will have problems mustering the energy needed to take out the Colts as visitors.  The Colts current group is also suited well to defending against the run , and with  QB Carson Wentz in top form throwing multiple TDs pass in 4 straight games with no interceptions the Colts are a dangerous looking team. Note: Tennessee 0-4 ATS in games coming off consecutive SU underdog wins.I

INDIANAPOLIS is 14-4 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game over the last 3 seasons

TENNESSEE is 0-6 ATS  in road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last 3 seasons. 

Play on the Colts to cover 

Rams took out the lowly Lions last week by a 28-19 count, but they had to work extremely hard to do it after falling 10-0 in the first quarter. To me its obvious the Rams  are taking defacto bye  weeks  to rest players against lower tier sides at least from an emotional standpoint ( their effort and grit look less than positive at time despite of the talent levels. In the recent past it seems the odds makers have over estimated the Rams ability to beat up on lower level sides, as is evident by  their  1-5 ATS mark  vs. a team with a losing record. After last weeks emotional come from behind victory Im fading them as huge road favs vs a team that will be motivated for redemption of some sort. 

HOUSTON is 13-3 ATS L/16 after scoring 14 points or less in 2 straight games. 

LA RAMS are 2-10 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. 

NFL Favorites (LA RAMS) - solid team - outgaining their opponents by 0.75 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 14-48 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against  78% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Texans to cover 

Packers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall.Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win. Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in October.

Cardinals are 9-20 ATS in their last 29 games as a home favorite.Cardinals are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

ARIZONA is 1-11 ATS  L/12 in home games after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game.ARIZONA is 0-6 ATS in home games after out-gaining opp by 100 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. ARIZONA is 4-14 ATS L/18  off a home blowout win by 21 points or more. 

GREEN BAY is 8-1 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better over the last 2 seasons.

NFL Home teams (ARIZONA) - out-gaining their opponents by 1.75 or more passing yards/attempt, after gaining 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games are 7-27 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate.

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (ARIZONA) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 9-33 ATS L/10 seasons for a79% go against conversion rate. 

Play on the Green Bay Packers to cover 

 The Colts after a slow 0-3 start have won 2 of their L/3 games, with the loss coming to Baltimore by a 31-25 count. This team and its current roster according to my power rankings is more than capable of hanging with a SF 49ers side that has a banged up QB (Jimmy Garoppolo ) at the helm of the offense that is playing at less than 100% when he is on the field. Advantage Colts to cover. 

INDIANAPOLIS is 9-1 ATS  vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. over the last 2 seasons. NDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 ATS  in road games after having won 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.

SAN FRANCISCO is 1-8 ATS  when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

NFL team vs the money line (INDIANAPOLIS) - off a blowout win by 28 points or more over a division rival, after the first month of the season are 31-6 L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL team vs the money line (INDIANAPOLIS) - an average defensive team (18 to 23 PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG), after scoring 25 points or more in 3 straight games are 28-4 L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate. ( This trend gives a decent probability of possible upset thus giving top tier value with taking points. 

INDIANAPOLIS is 3-0/ATS 2-1 SU against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO in SAN FRANCISCO since 1992. 

Indianapolis to cover 

That was a big win for Rodgers and company last week against their long time rivals the  Bears and now Im expecting an emotional letdown situation to unfold for Green Bay giving us an advantage with taking points with the Washington football team. I know Washington has not looked good defensively, but they are still capable of slowing down the Packer train. Note: From a historical standpoint GREEN BAY is just  9-22 ATS   in home games versus struggling  defensive teams - allowing 6 yards/play or more .

Football Team are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Football Team are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Football Team are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Rivera is 9-1 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games in all games he has coached .Rivera is 20-8 ATS  after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread in all games he has coached

Packers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Play on Washington to cover 

After last weeks back and forth tilt vs the Dallas Cowboys that saw New England lose to the Cowboys in OT, Im betting on a huge letdown performance from the Pats here this week vs the lowly Jets, Also according to my power rankings the Jets are not as bad as their record suggests and are more than capable of hanging tough here and pulling off the upset. 

NFL Road teams (NY JETS) - with a struggling offense - averaging 285 or less total yards/game, after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 39-14 ATS L/38 seasons for a 74% conversion rate.

Play on the NY Jets ( LATE STEAM)

Bill Belichick is 21-7 SU in his career vs  NFC East sides , cashing 4 straight times a s dog including  6 straight victories  versus the Dallas Cowboys. I know the Boyz are playing great ball but  Belichick is a chess master that must be respected at home . New England has cashed in 5 of their L/6 as home dogs, while the Cowboys are 0-6-1 ATS L/7 after playing the Giants which was the case last week. 

NEW ENGLAND is 13-4 ATS L/17 in home games vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season . 

 NFL non-division road favorite (DALLAS) of more 3 + points coming off three consecutive home games including a  SUATS win last time out have failed to cover 14 of the L/15 times for a 93% go against conversion rate. 

NFL Road favorites (DALLAS) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after a win by 10 or more point are 18-45 L/10 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate.

Play on New England Pats  to cover 

HC Gruden is now just a memory in the minds of this Las Vegas football group. It's a fresh start for them as they can now concentrate on playing football instead of being involved in a controversial circus. Im still a believer in this Raiders group, and here as 4 point dogs vs a Broncos side that is 0-6 ATS L/6 as division favorites we have an edge taking points. Especially considering that this Denver team has gone 24 straight games without scoring  in their first possession of the game , which in itself continually puts them behind the proverbial 8 ball. Note: Broncos QB Teddy Bridgewater has failed to cover 7 of 11  home in division games in his NFL career. Raiders are 6-1 ATS L/7 in this series and since moving to Las Vegas have won both meetings. 

Play on LV  Raiders to cover

Tottenham Hotspur Stadium - London

Urban Meyer and Trevor Lawrence are proving that their college careers may have been over hyped at least at this point in their NFL tenures . However, the duo and their team are desperate for a win, and Im betting on a neutral field vs a Dolphins side that has lost 4 straight  we have a situation where a cover is a high potential situation on this line. 

It must be noted that Jacksonville will play their 8th game here in the UK, and have been adopted by many British NFL fans . So this is like a defacto home game for the transplanted Jaguars. 

Note: QB] 10/12/2021 - Tua Tagovailoa is questionable  Sunday vs Jacksonville ( Ribs ) and if he plays will be less than 100%. (Without the young QB in the lineup the Fins have been beaten up by an average of 19 ppg. )

NFL  team vs the money line (MIAMI) - with a poor offense - averaging 4.8 or less yards/play, after allowing 500 or more total yards in their previous game are just 4-30 L/37 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors. (According to this over powering trend we have  upset potential)

Play on the Jacksonville Jags to cover 

Philadelphia D has ,held three of its five sides they have faced this season season-low yardage . Thats important against explosive  44 year old future HOF QB  Tom Brady and company. 

In a historical context is must be noted that the Eagles have gone 7-0 SU L/7 in  Thursday nighters while Tampa Bay  is just 1-7 ATS in these prime time affairs. 

Basically at this number we have real value and recommend we take the points here with the home dog. Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.

 Buccaneers are 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 games in October.

Buccaneers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite.

Play on Philadelphia Eagles to cover 

Buffalo to me is playing as a front runner for a Super Bowl ticket, at least in their current form and have a very good chance a SU victory as dogs here vs KC. 

BUFFALO is 7-0 ATS  after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.

KANSAS CITY is 1-11 ATS (L/12 after gaining 175 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games. 

Bills QB Josh Allen is 12-1 SU in his NFL career against opposition coming off a SUATS win like the Chiefs. 

NFL Underdogs or pick (BUFFALO) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 41-11 L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. 

NFL Road underdogs or pick (BUFFALO) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 31-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (KANSAS CITY) - with a terrible defense - allowing 360 or more total yards/game, after gaining 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 6-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Buffalo Bills to cover 

I was never a big Trevor Lawrence fan no matter how well he did at the College level. I still maybe wrong but his style not mix well in the NFL and that has been obvious so far as he continues to be intercepted on a regular basis. Meanwhile last week, the Titans  picked up 30 first downs and still found a way to lose vs the Jets in OT. However, Im still in on the Titans this season, and feel strongly they are the better side here. The Titans have victories in  seven of their last eight meetings vs  the Jaguars, with  four of those wins by 21 points or more. Rinse and repeat. Also have not problem fading HC Urban Meyer. 

JACKSONVILLE is 6-17 ATS L/23  in home games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 375 or more  yards/game.JACKSONVILLE is 0-7 ATS  in home games after allowing 6 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. 

TENNESSEE is 3-0 SU L/3 overall vs Jacksonville. 

Play on Tennessee to cover 

Pittsburgh looks like their in a down cycle this season and continue to deal with a boatload full of injuries. With that said, knowing Broncos QB Teddy Bridgewater is 23-3 ATS  on the road in his career its not a hard decision to back Denver here today. Note: Ben Rothlisberger is 0-5 ATS L/5 starts as a favorite. 

DENVER is 8-1 ATS  after scoring 14 points or less last game over the last 3 seasons.

Tomlin is 9-23 ATS  off 3 or more consecutive unders as the coach of PITTSBURGH.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (DENVER) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 31-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate. 

Play on Denver Broncos to cover 

According to my projections this game should be closer to a pickem which gives us an edge taking points here this evening. Both sides defences have allowed season highs in 3 straight games. Some may say the Rams D is superiors, but Wilson and can slice and dice the best of stopping units and here at home, Im betting he will along with a run game that should have success. 

Seattle QB Russel Wilson is 4-0 ATS at home off a win and 8-2 ATS at home as an underdog   including  9-1 SU and 7-1-2 ATS in games on Thursdays.

Rams  are just  3-6 SU and  2-7 ATS in division battles on Thursdays, including 0-4 ATS when favored.  LA RAMS are 3-16 ATS L/19 after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games.

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA RAMS) - with a terrible defense - allowing 360 or more total yards/game, after gaining 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 5-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against  84% conversion rate. .

Play on Seattle to cover

Washington did not look good last week, in a loss vs Buffalo. Its still early in the season, and some of numbers could easily be skewed or misrepresented . The talent especially on defense remains intact for the football team of DC , and Im betting we see them establish their hard hitting ways this week against the Falcons. Meanwhile, Atlanta despite of winning last week lost the stats battle vs the NYG, and their key player QB Matt Ryan looks to be getting more inconsistent with age, and is now owns an overall QB Rating this season of  (87.1) which puts him at  No. 24 overall in the NFL. With that said, Im betting on the Washington D, to disrupt Ryan and for the Football team to deliver the cash to their backers. 

ATLANTA is 15-32 ATS in home games after allowing 14 points or less last game since 1992. Rivera is 26-9 ATS off a road loss in all games he has coached since 1992.

NFL team (WASHINGTON) - good offensive team (5.4 to 5.8 YPP) against a team with a terrible defense (5.8  or more YPP), after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game are 31-6 L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Washington to win 

The Chicago Bears offense and team have been kind of a laughing stock of the early part of this NFL season. Everybody and his dog now wants to take a proverbial piss on Nagy and what many look like a mismanagement of the team, especially on offense. This week I expect instead of Fields under center we s instead get Dalton or Foles, and a team that now has a chip on the shoulders. Remember , pro do not like to be embarrassed, and that Im betting ignites this Bears team , for  at least this week.

Detroit has allowed an average of 31.7 ppg this season, and must also be looked upon with extreme suspicion. 

DETROIT is 5-16 ATS off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less since 1992.CHICAGO is 18-6 ATS in home games after gaining 200 or less total yards in their previous game since 1992.

Play on the Chicago Bears to cover 

Titans coach Mike Vrabel calls Jets' defensive line 'one of the best' and will be that defensive line that will be the difference maker in a cover here today. 

First year HCs  like NYJ Robert Saleh that are 0-3 SU/ATS to start their seasons are 47-16-2 ATS in non-division games.

NY JETS are 16-6 ATS in home games after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game. 

TENNESSEE is 16-32 ATS against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season .

NYJ are 4-0-1 ATS AFC South opponents at home.

Titans are 3-10 ATS L/10 vs AFC East. 

 NFL Favorites (TENNESSEE) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing 1 or less turnovers/game, after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are 3-22 ATS L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate.

NFL Underdogs or pick (NY JETS) - terrible passing team ( 5.3 PY/Att.) against a horrible passing defense ( 7.3 or more  PY/Att.), after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 22-4 ATS L/37 seasons for a 85% conversion rate.

Play on NY Jets to cover 

The Dolphins (1-1) will be 4-point underdogs on Sunday against the Raiders, a line that is at least partially inflated by the quarterback situation. Miami will play without starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa . However, Brisset his back is a viable  QB and deserves respect as he is above .500 ATS QB in his career with a 17-16-1 record. Meanwhile, Raiders running back Josh Jacobs (toe/ankle injury) is less than 100% and may not play.

Raiders are 0-8 ATS L/8 after playing Pittsburgh. 

Flores, meanwhile, is 1-0 against the Raiders. Gruden is 2-5 in his career against the Dolphins.Miami 5-1-1 ATS L/7 in this series. 

MIAMI is 15-4 straight up against LAS VEGAS since 1992.

Play on the Miami Dolphins to cover 

What has me looking at Atlanta this week vs NYG was veteran QB Ryans effort  last Sunday vs Tampa Bay that saw him throw for 300 yards in a 48-25 loss at Tampa Bay.Ryan, is showing  consistency for his team as it attempts to work its way down the field.Quote: "I think that's a recipe for success moving forward," Ryan said. "The percentages are much higher of converting drives (and) converting third downs when we are at third and five or less, so I think that's been pretty good so far this year." END Quote. Im not a big believer at this time in the Giants. I know both these teams are 0-2, but one looks more viable than the other. Note:NYG Saquon Barkley's rehab and play on the field is still sub par overall. Yes, there have been flashes of brilliance, but he still has a long way to go. 

ATLANTA is 9-1 ATS in road games off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more since 1992.

Visitor is 8-2 ATS in this series and the Giants are 2-6-1 ATS L/8 as home  favorites.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (ATLANTA) - excellent passing team from last season - averaged 275 or more passing yards/game, after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 24-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate.

Play on Atlanta to cover 

Steelers are banged up and have a key injury to T.J. Watts (groin injury) and to me have not looked cohesive this season. Something just not right , while the Bengals have shown some grit so far this season. The Bengals snapped a 10-game losing skid to the Steelers in the second meeting last season, a 27-17 win in Cincy and I wont be surprised of QB Joe Burrows and company find a way to get the straight up win here, and more importantly at least get us the cover. Bengals are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games in Week 3.

Bengals are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Bengals are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss. Bengals are 21-10-2 ATS in their last 33 games in September.

Steelers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite.

Play on Cincinnati Bengals to cover 

Everyone and his dog loves the Carolina Panthers , and the lines-makers are following suit and almost completely discounting the Texans ability to hang tough here and get the cover. I know their are some negative images put into the minds of the public, because  franchise quarterback Deshaun Watson has been made inactive because of on going legal issues  . But overall Im betting his absence is actually a good thing and makes this Houston team more cohesive chemistry wise. Ill recommend we take the points here even with Mills in at QB. * By the way Mills is tough as nails, and he will have a pro bowl left tackle in the lineup to keep him afloat here tonight in prime time. 

Carolina 0-6 ATS L/6 Thursday nighters. 

Texans 8-2 ATS on Thursdays. 

NFL home underdog of 7  points  or more with a  .500  record or better , going against an undefeated side are 31-9 ATS L/40 seasons. . 

NFL Underdogs or pick (HOUSTON) - excellent passing team from last season - averaged 275 or more passing yards/game, after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 32-7 L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Houston to cover 

Everyone and his dog is jumping off the Baltimore Ravens bandwagon. Last week they lost in OT to the Raiders, and now the football world believes in their demise after a sub par 2020 campaign. I however, am not one of those skeptics, and still believe this is a talented team that deserves respect as underdogs at home vs a very public side in KC. Hey I know Patrick Mahomes and company are a top tier group, but they have had problems covering of late in games that are deemed to be considered close by linesmakers like this game . Note: KC is 10-0 SU in regular season tilts  but  just 0-9-1 ATS in one-score games since the start of last season. 

It must also be noted that Ravens QB Jackson is 31-11 in his NFL career,  while winning 15 of 21 home games  His only game as a home dog during that victorious stretch was the season before last . How did he respond to that , well Ill tell you. His team won as 3 point dogs to Football god Tom Brady  of New England  by a lopsided  37-20 count. Im a believer and will back the Raves to cover.

Harbaugh is 10-2 ATS  in home games in the first two weeks of the season as the coach of BALTIMORE.

Play on the Baltimore Ravens to cover

Sometimes the pundits make to big a deal of week 1 results, and this is what Im betting into here this week. Minnesota ,looked a little uneasy and made mistakes in their first game against under rated Cincinnati. Penalties and false starts etc,. However, despite of what the so called experts say, they will have a better offensive line this season if they stay healthy, and  the D, Im betting can and will deal with the mobile  Cards QB Murray. As big chunks of public money come in on the Cards Ill swing the other way with the maligned Vikings. Zimmer is 6-0 ATS in road games after a loss by 3 or less points as the coach of MINNESOTA.

Vikings are 38-17 ATS in their last 55 games following a straight up loss.

ARIZONA is 3-15 ATS L/18 in home games after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game . Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

 Road underdogs or pick (MINNESOTA) - poor passing defense from last season - allowed 230 or more passing yards/game, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 29-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

MINNESOTA is 12-4 straight up against ARIZONA since 1992.Underdog is 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.Vikings are 3-0-2 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Play on the Vikings to cover 

Cincinnati has a deep scouting report on Dalton the ex Bengals and current Bears QB starter, and will be well prepared to slow his production options. Plus Chicagos offensive line looks wobbly at best.  I also suggest that the Bengals D, is very under rated , and that QB Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase could easily be big stories in the NFL this season. With that said, Im betting on Burrows to take advantage of the Bears weak secondary, for big gains, and for the Bengal D to stand tall against a QB thats seen his best days pass him by. 

CHICAGO is 5-15 ATS L/20 after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs. CHICAGO is 9-23 ATS after allowing 7 or more yards/play in their previous game . 

NFL Underdogs or pick (CINCINNATI) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are 55-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate.

CINCINNATI is 2-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO since 1992 at Chicago. 

Play on Cincinnati to cover 

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, is out with an injury and now  Taylor Heinicke will be under center for the Washington Football team . He’s made two NFL  starts , both at home that ended in losses and he could easily end up on the wrong side of the scoreboard again. 

Judge is 6-0 ATS  in road games against conference opponents as the coach of NY GIANTS.

NY GIANTS is 4-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons and Giants starting QB was the starter in all those tilts and will be again tonight. 

NFL Home favorites (WASHINGTON) - team that had a losing record last season, in conference games are 94-160 ATS L/38 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the NY Giants to cover 

 Black- and-Silver bring a 5-1 ATS record on Monday night games into this tilts including  3-0 SUATS the last three at home . Im looking for these positive numbers to continue here at  Allegiant Stadium  vs a banged up Baltimore  side missing some key offensive cogs and that was not as potent last season on both sides of the ball. The Ravens are 5-10 SUATS L/8 seasons vs the AFC West, including 0-4 ATS when favored by 5 or less points.  Raiders QB Carr is 4-2 as a starter on Monday nights, including wins in his past three Monday starts and takes my money here tonight. 

 Home team is 7-2 ATS L/9 meetings in this series. 

Play on the Vegas Raiders to cover

Cardinals are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall.

NFL Favorites vs. the money line (TENNESSEE) - first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight ATS losses against opponent first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses are 28-1 L/28 seasons for a 97% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +14.9 ppg which qualifies on this spread line. 

The new quarterback for the Carolina Panthers Darnold has proven inconsistent during his career. Im betting his inability for stability to continue vs his former team. Considering how well the Jets internal scouting report is on him , this should be a bad bounce back start for the play caller.Matt Rhule is in his second season with Carolina after a 5-11 record in 2020 and I just don't like what they offer overall, even against a revamped Jets side.Panthers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. 

Take the points with the NYJ to cover

Philadelphias Jalen Hurts is better than he was at Alabama. Yes I believe he has matured and   Im betting after showing signs of brilliance , we will see him shine today behind an under rated group of WRs and backs.  Meanwhile, Atlanta  despite of having a veteran at 
QB  they. as a group look long in the tooth. Remember Matt Ryan is   36 years old, and his best days are behind him, as was the case last season as his team accumulated a ugly  4-12 mark. 

Atlanta  is 1-10 ATS L/11 as non division fav of 5 points or less. 

NFL Home favorites (ATLANTA) - team that had a losing record last season, in conference games. are 94-158 ATS L/38 seasons for a 62%  go against conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Philadelphia to cover

The QB savior of the Bengals Joe Burrows will be Im betting be the difference maker here today. 

Dating back to last season, Vikings are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games overall and  are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite and  are also  0-6 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.

Host 6-0 L/6 in this series and the Bengals are  8-2 ATS L/10 as non-conference Home dogs of 3 points or more. Bengals are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games on fieldturf and  are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 1 as well as  5-2 ATS in their last 7 home gams and from a long term perspective are 35-17-2 ATS in their last 54 games in September.

Play on the Cincinnati Bengals to cover

 Jacksonville's Trevor Lawrence in my humble betting opinion is being over hyped here. The kid was great at Clemson, but Im not sure he is ready to starter in this league just yet. I know QB  Dshaun Watson wont be under center for the Texans, but  the Texans: 6-0 SU last six games in this series while the Jaguars have lost  7 straight road games  and have been a chalk in only two of its last 24 overall trips to the grid-ion , with both of those tilts ending a loss for the Jags. with that said, Ill take the points with the completely disrespected home dog.  

NFL Underdogs or pick (HOUSTON) - excellent offense from last season - averaged 360 or more total yards/game, versus division opponents are 24-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. 

NFL Favorites (JACKSONVILLE) - team that had a losing record last season, in conference games are 130-204 ATS L/38 seasons for a go against long term 61% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Texans to cover