This is a weak road favorite we are seeing here with Tennessee. Despite of being in the post season last year, the Titans were lucky to be there after being out stated and out scored overall by a total of 38 points on the season. It must be noted that Tennessee has not fared well  in the past against AFC opposition  failing to cash in 7 of their L/8 ATS . Meanwhile Miami is 4-1 SU and a perfect  5-0 ATS L/5 in season openers . Tennessee was 0-4 in the preseason  which is not a good omen for a sudden turnaround today vs a desperate Miami team with a veteran QB at the helm in Tannehill. 

TENNESSEE is 112-146 ATS  against conference opponents since 1992.

Home teams in week one in games with a total of  46 or more are 48- 35-2 ATS.

Teams in week 1 which lost 10 or more games last season against a team that did not lose more than 9 games are 106-67-2 ATS L/175 . 

Play on the Miami Dolphins to cover 

Super Bowl 52 - US Bank Stadium - Minneapolis, MN

New England's super star QB Tom Brady despite of being able to perform miracle after football miracle, via amazing comebacks,  must finally be feeling like he and his team mates need to play a complete start to finish game, and stop messing around with fate. With that said, I expect the 40 year old  Phenom, to be extremely focused and prepared to lay down a big beat down vs a Philadelphia side that is over matched  and in an emotional letdown situation after surprising Minnesota in DD blowout in  their Conference championship game .That aforementioned victory  saw the Eagles exert a lot of energy in a stadium that was rocking and shaking all night long with  extremely exuberant fans. The Party in the City of brotherly love, after wards was enormous, and the players now exhausted and ready to go into Super Bowl preparations, will now be even more drained by the time game time arrives.  Now against what I am betting is a very focused and experienced  Patriots team that been here before,   I expect we will see their superior overall talent in most facets of this game, including the all important Head Coach position  on full display this Sunday. Everyone loves an underdog, but when push comes to shove, the defending champs must be respected on any line of a TD or less and are my pick to win and cover and get yet another Super Bowl ring.

NEW ENGLAND is 11-1 ATS  L/12 versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more  yards/play and is 10-1 ATS  L/11  vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game.

Belichick is 16-4 ATS L20 vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game.

PHILADELPHIA is 0-6 ATS  L/6 in road games  vs teams - allowing 350  or more yards/game.

NFL team (PHILADELPHIA) - off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season are 97-169 ATS L/34 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Update: I know the Pats previous Super Bowl wins have been close, but I'm betting that won't be the case this time around. Note: the straight-up winner of the Super Bowl is 43-6-2 ATS L/51.

Play on the New England Patriots to cover

The Steelers looked ahead to what they thought would be a meeting with the New England Pats, and were left flat lined in their game against Jacksonville last Sunday. You would think the Jaguars would have learned their lesson and remained humble after posting the upset and  Game and advancing to the AFC Championship Game  . But it looks like they have not, as their already chirping in social media about taking New England out this week, and advancing to the Super Bowl. I like the Jaguars , but in no way shape or form do they matchup well against the Pats, and are fade material in this spot at 10 points or less according to my power rankings.
This week I expect the less than gifted big man under center for the Jags  QB Bortles and the banged up rookie RB  Forunette  to struggle mightily against the Pats, and for NEs future hall of fame QB Tom Brady and array of multiple weapons to take the Jaguars out with ease.

NEW ENGLAND is 8-0 ATS L/8 versus good offensive teams - averaging  350 or more yards/game. NEW ENGLAND is 14-3 ATS L/17 when playing against a team with a winning record.JACKSONVILLE is 1-9 ATS L/10 in road games after scoring 40 points or more last game.NEW ENGLAND is 11-0 ATS (L/11 after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game .NEW ENGLAND is 12-1 ATS  L/13 after allowing 17 points or less in 3 straight games.

Update: No one knows how serious the supposed injury to Tom Brady's hand is, but one thing for sure, its not as bad  as HC Billicheck and company are playing it up to be. This HC is the king of mind games, which makes me doubt the seriousness of this clip to Brady's hand in what was described as  a very light  collision in practice.

New England has won 7 straight meetings in this series at home.

Play on the Patriots to cover

NFC Divisional Playoffs

Minnesota has impressed me this season with their brand of smash mouth football, and offensive production. The Vikings rank No.1 in overall scoring and defense and out gained 14 of their L/16 opponents this season, showing us their dominance in the process. They owned the stats battle entering this tilt vs the Saints, going 11-1 SU, 10-2 ATS and out yarded 11 of their L/12 opponents.  With that said, I look for a the Vikings to come out here and move forward  in explosive fashion as they attempt  to host this years Super Bowl, (a first in NFL history).  It must be noted that HC Mike Zimmer is a cover machine going 32-9 ATS lifetime vs non NFC North sides, including an amazing 18-3 ATS as hosts. Meanwhile, New Orleans despite of a strong campaign overall, reverted back to what my early season projections had suggested. Those estimations made the Saints an above average team , but not a over powering one. Their late season  dive I'm betting is more indicative of their true abilities as they were just 2-5 ATS down the stretch and lost the stats battle in the 5 ATS losses.

MINNESOTA is 13-4 ATS L/17 versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game .MINNESOTA is 8-1 ATS  in dome games this season.MINNESOTA is 9-0 ATS L/9 off a win against a division rival.MINNESOTA is 17-4 ATS L/21 after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread. HC Zimmer is 24-8 ATS in home games  and is 17-6 ATS L/23 as a home favorite of 7 points or less.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (NEW ORLEANS) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 15-36 ATS L/10 seasons for  a go against conversion rate of 70% for bettors.

The Vikings are 17-0 ATS /16-1 SU  at home off a game as a favorite in which they converted at least five third downs with the average margin of victory coming 17.6 ppg and average cover by 12.97 ppg.

Lay the points with Minnesota to cover

The Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6)   visit Heinz Field  to play  the Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3) in the Sunday's AFC Divisional Round. The Jaguars upset the Steelers 30-9 in Week 5 as 7.5-point road pups, behind  rookie running back Leonard Fournette who had a season-high 181 yards and two touchdowns . The Jacksonville D, was also out standing  and they all over Roethlisberger, as was evident by the veteran QB throwing 5 picks and getting sacked twice. Note:Roethlisberger was quick to praise the Jaguars' defense this week.QUOTE:"This is one of the best defenses I've ever played against," Roethlisberger said. END QUOTE:

The Steelers finished the season ranked third in the NFL in passing yardage, with the Jaguars first in pass defense.  The Jags also limited RB  Le'Veon Bell to 47 yards on 15 carries n the above mentioned upset they pulled.

Now fast forward to this matchup, and things may not get all that much better for the Steelers here against a team that style wise matches up very well against them. While I doubt Roethlisberger will as bad this time around, I'm betting the Steelers will not have an easy go of it against solid Jaguars D, and   an the leagues No.1 run  offense that when in gear can chew up a lot of yards on the ground and make life miserable for their opposition. Considering what my power rankings and matchup system vs system estimations suggest, a tilt that is a one possession game  is a high probability outcome, which the linesmakers agree with me about. Thus taking a TD+ with the underdog makes for a viable wagering opportunity.

Jaguars are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 vs. AFC.Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.Steelers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win. Jags are 4-1 ATS L/5 visits to Pittsburgh.

NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (JACKSONVILLE) - average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 73-38 L/34 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Jacksonville Jaguars to cover
 

NFC Wildcard Playoffs

The Falcons have big game play off experience while the key man under center  Jared Goff for the Rams does not . It must be noted that first start QBs in the post season are just 11-27 SU/ATS L/15 seasons.
 I know the Falcons have not inspired many bettors this season, but having been in key post season situations before they are better prepared to deal with the pressure   than their inexperienced opposition. The Rams can score in bunches, but the Falcons D, has been staunch this season, and held 6 teams to 300 yards or less and their L/2 opponents to season low offensive outputs.

 The Falcons are ranked top 10 in both Defense and offense.

ATLANTA is 6-0 ATS L/6 against NFC West division opponents dating back to last  season.

Play on Atlanta to cover

The Atlanta Falcons need a victory more than the Carolina Panthers do when the teams meet in the regular-season final Sunday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium and will be the more motivated of these two teams this Sunday. The Falcons (9-6) can clinch the final NFC wild-card spot with a victory.

Carolina's HC Rivera has already thrown caution to the wind, and told the media We have to make sure we do it in a judicious fashion and that's not to expose him," Rivera said , referring to his veteran QB Cam Newton. So needless to say, this game is more about staying healthy for the Falcons and not worrying about their play off position entering the post season.

I know Atlanta is coming off a loss, but in the past QB Matt Ryan is 9-2 SU/ATS at home in division games coming off a loss , including 8-0 ATS L/8 and a perfect 4-0 ATS facing a team off a victory like Carolina is. Also teams off appearing in a Super Bowl last season, and losing are 12-1 ATS L/13 times when they are off a loss of more than 3 points which happened in a 23-13 loss to the Saints last week,

Needless to say, I feel good about backing a motivated team like Atlanta vs a side that has more lose than win here today.

NFL Home favorites (ATLANTA) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 29-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Atlanta Falcons to cover

The SF 49ers are showing some life here late in the season behind, QB  jim Garroppolo who is a perfect 5-0 as a starter in the NFL, after last weeks victory vs a stunned Tennessee Titans. Note: Garoppolo is completing 68.7 percent of his passes for 1,026 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions for a passer rating of 98.0.Today against a Jacksonville, team feeling relaxed after clinching a play off spot , I'm betting the Niners shine again, and get us a cover.

NFL Road teams (JACKSONVILLE) - after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are a long term losing proposition going just  43-79 ATS L/34 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate on the blind.

Jacksonville is 2-19 SU L/21 in the first of two straight scheduled road games and are 1-9 ATS in their L/10 games after exploding for 40 or more points, which they did last week. Jacksonville is also 3-17 ATS L/20 vs NFC opposition and 1-11 ATS mark vs NFC west foes including 0-5 ATS on the highway.JACKSONVILLE is 4-16 ATS L/20 after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game. SF is 4-1 ATS L/5 in this series.

Play on the SF 49ers to cover

After an abusive nasty and physical affair vs the Steelers 3 weeks ago, that saw the Bengals blow a DD lead and eventually lose, they came out with a physical and emotional hang over and crapped in their own beds in their last two trips to the gridiron. Now rested and their PTSD, on the wain I expect they will give their home town fans and management some satisfaction with a strong effort in their last game at home this season ( HC Lewis is a perfect 5-0 SU L/5 last home games of the season) I know the men from Motown, are winning of late , but its not like their consistent team .

With that said,  I'm recommending we take the host side and the points.

DETROIT is 9-25 ATS  L/34as a road favorite of 7 points or less  and   is 9-27 ATS L/36  in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins

NFL team (CINCINNATI) - after scoring 9 points or less in 2 straight games are 39-12 ATS L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cincinnati Bengals to cover

The Fins were in an emotional let down situation in Buffalo last week, after beating the defending New England Pats the week before. Now I'm betting the Dr.Jeykell and Mr. Hyde Fins come in here and make life difficult for a Chiefs side  that are off a division home win last week. It must be noted that KC is 0-9 ATS L/9 as hosts off a division home victory and  off consecutive wins.
The Chiefs are also 0-5 ATS L/5 as a home fav of more than 7 points .

KANSAS CITY is 0-11 ATS L/11  after gaining 375 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games since 1992.

Favorites (KANSAS CITY) - after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a marginal losing team in the second half of the season are 15-38 ATS L/34 seasons, for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Miami Dolphins to cover

The Steelers are off back to back grueling games and comebacks vs Cincinnati and last week vs the Baltimore Ravens. The game against the Bengals was nasty and extremely physical and 2nd game vs the Ravens while not as ugly was exhausting , which will now have the Steelers on tired legs at the worst possible time. Meanwhile, New England had a 7 game win streak ended at Miami last time out, as Brady and company looked like they were more interested in south Florida vacation rather than their game against the Fins, and it cost them as they lost 27-20 as big road favs on Monday night. What I'm betting will happen in this tilt, is that the Pats will be ready for a bounce back, against a tired side that has worked way to hard of late.

NEW ENGLAND is 16-3 ATS  L/19 when playing with 6 or less days rest .NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS  L/9 in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5.NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 ATS  L/7 as a road favorite of 7 points or less. NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 ATS  L/7 versus good offensive teams - averaging  350 or more  yards/game .

Patriots are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

NFL Favorites (NEW ENGLAND) - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games ae 32-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the New England Patriots to cover

All teams go through slumps, including the KC chiefs, who ended a 4 game losing streak with a win last week vs the Oakland Raiders. Now with a little momentum on their sides I'm betting they take out a LA chargers side, that has won 4 straight games. I know Andy Reid's squad may not inspire bettors , but remember this is the NFL, and teams can go form zero to hero very quickly and vice versa. With that said, when using my player to player matchup systems and styles of play, my own analysis likes the way the Chiefs matchup vs the Chargers as was evident on Sept 24 in LA when the Chiefs beat the Chargers 24-10.

KC is 7-0 SU L/7 in this series.

Chargers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.Chargers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Chiefs are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC West.Chiefs are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CHARGERS) - revenging a loss against opponent by 14 points or more, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are just 12-35 ATS dating back 34 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 75% for bettors.

Play on KC Chiefs to cover

Denver is off ending an extended 8 game losing streak last week vs a sub .500 opponent the NY Jets by a 23-0 count. Now suddenly they are being made road favorites, which is kind of odd considering they have lost 8 straight SU/ATS away dating back to last season and how awful they have looked more most of this season.  I know the Colts may not inspire bettors, but in the past the Colts have had success when facing this Broncos franchise winning 9 of the L/10 meetings ATS ( 8-2 SU), and have done well in Thursday night football tilts winning 13 of their L/15 appearances SU. These teams are very closely matched in their present forms , and getting points here is the less of two evils and a viable investment opportunity.

Denver is 0-6 ATS on the road this season with the average score clicking in at : Opponent 30.5 Denver 13.5. DENVER is 0-7 ATS  L/7 vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing  7.5 or less yards per return in the second half of the season dating back to last season.

NFL Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DENVER) - after allowing 6 points or less last game against opponent after a loss by 6 or less points are 12-35 ATS L/34 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 75% on the blind for bettors.

Play on the Indianapolis colts to cover

The Steelers enter this game a bit banged up with key Receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster  suspended after a hard block on Cincinnati Bengals linebacker Vontaze Burfict on Monday night and will also miss  Linebacker Ryan Shazier out with  a spinal injury suffered during that Helmut banging tilt . That was a physical game, and I'm betting the Steelers won't be as fresh as they need to be vs another rival the Baltimore Ravens. Add to that the Steelers also exerted a lot of energy in their comeback in the above mentioned game after falling behind 17-3 before winning it by a 23-20 count. Exhausting, beat up and emotionally let down are the key words here to describe the Steelers coming in this game . Meanwhile, the Ravens have the momentum of last weeks 44-20 win vs the Lions. Note: BALTIMORE is 9-1 ATS L/10 after scoring 40 points or more last game. With Joe Flacco starting to rev up, I'm betting on Ravens being a handful for the Steelers in this contest.

In his last seven games at Heinz Field, Flacco completed 64.4 percent of his passes, averaging 241.7 yards per contest with eight touchdowns and three interceptions and must be respected as an underdog in this spot.

The Steelers beat Baltimore 26-9 in the first meeting on Oct 1, but I'm betting on the revenge minded Raves making this game much closer.

NFL team vs the money line (BALTIMORE) - after a win by 10 or more points against opponent after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half are 53-13 SU  and 5-1 SU  this season.

NFL team (BALTIMORE) - off 1 or more straight overs, a good offensive team (23-27 PPG) against a good defensive team (14-18 PPG) are 63-33 ATS L/10 seasons.

Play on the Baltimore Ravens to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Eagles (10-2) had their nine-game winning streak snapped with a 24-10 loss at the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday night in a grueling physical  affair that saw key tight end Zach Ertz leave the game with a head injury. Todays battle, vs the Rams, will feature,  two of the  top  young quarterbacks selected in the 2016 NFL draft -- Rams quarterback Jared Goff (No. 1) and Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz (No. 2). With that said, m own power rankings suggest Goff has the slight edge, at home,  It must

also  be noted that its never easy for teams travelling east to west , and with this being the Rams second straight west coast road game, their at even bigger disadvantage .

Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Rams are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

NFL Home favorites (LA RAMS) - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (PHILADELPHIA) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, with a winning record in the second half of the season.  are just 15-42 ATS dating back 10 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Rams to cover 1 unit reg selection

Interim Giants new head coach Spagnuolo will have his demoralized team ready to play this week, as  Eli Manning, the Giants' franchise quarterback since 2004, goes back under center , after being  removed from the starting lineup by now fired McAdoo. That tilt was the first game that Manning had not participated in since Nov. 14 of his rookie season. I'm betting that will be a wakeup call for Giants, and to spur Manning from his comfort zone into in a big effort this week on his own backyard. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are banged up and  will be without suspended running back Ezekiel Elliott another week and could also be without offensive lineman La'el Collins (back), linebacker Justin Durant (concussion/illness), defensive lineman David Irving (concussion), cornerback Orlando Scandrick (back), left tackle Tyron Smith (back) and middle linebacker Sean Lee (hamstring) . Considering how pumped the Giants will be I'm betting the Cowboys in their usual inconsistent ways will not be in top form  here and the Giants come out of this with a cover. Yes, the Cowboys won last week by a 38-14 count vs the Skins, but previous to that game they scored 6,9,7 points respectively in three straight losses.

Note: Cowboys are 11-22 L/33 as road division favs. Manning in December games  when coming off consecutive losses is 13-0-1 ATS L/14 games.

NY GIANTS are 6-0 ATS  L/6 after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games.

NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY GIANTS) - revenging a loss against opponent, off a cover where the team lost as an underdog are 33-10 ATS L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. ( The Boyz pounded the Giants earlier this season by a 19-3 count)

Play on the NY Giants to cover

The Vikings (10-2)  are in a quest for  home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and mean business here today as the play a Carolina team that is good but not quite ready for another run at a Super Bowl crown and in a letdown situation after last weeks loss to New Orleans. QUOTE: "We've got four games left," Minnesota coach Mike Zimmer said. "My only thoughts are on the Carolina Panthers and trying to get a win this week. All that stuff is nice to talk about, but for us we'll go about our business." END QUOTE. The Vikings are looking extremely strong and are more than capable short road favs here that more than capable of covering the spread.

The Panthers are 0-10 ATS/SU  losing by an average of 11.45 ppg  off a loss as a dog when facing a non-divisional opponent that is scoring more than 23.5% of their points from field goals.Minnesota is 17-3 ATS L/20 after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread.MINNESOTA is 7-1 ATS  in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season.

NFL Road teams (MINNESOTA) - mistake-free team (1.25 TO/G  or less committed) vs a team with 1.25 TO/G or less forced after 8+ games, after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 38-13 ATS L/34 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover

The Saints are the real deal as is evident by having won by 9 of their L/10. The Saints had a good win vs the Panthers last time out showing me their tenacity . This is not the same one way team that Saints have put on the field in the past, and right now their clicking on all cylinders and look like a strong candidate to take out the Falcons tonight in their own backyard. The Falcons are 7-5 and recently had a three-game winning streak come to an end with a setback against Minnesota, and are now in a letdown situation at the worst possible time.


Saints are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Saints are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 vs. NFC South.Saints are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games.Falcons are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 vs. NFC.Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

NEW ORLEANS is 11-3 ATS L/14 versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game and 11-3 ATS vs. struggling passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse. ATLANTA is 6-17 ATS L/23 vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better.

NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 ATS L/15 versus division opponents and 6-0 ATS L/6 off a division game .NEW ORLEANS is 7-1 ATS as a favorite this season.


NFL Road teams (NEW ORLEANS) - mistake-free team ( 1.25 or less TO/G committed) vs a team with 1.25 or less TO/G forced after 8+ games, after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 24-4 ATS L/34 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the New Orleans to cover

The Eagles enter this game on fire having won 5 straight games by DD margins. Needless to say, the city of Philly is going wild, and  I smell a bit of irrational exuberance in the air . With that said, I'm betting the Eagles might be starting to believe the hype of their own press clippings, which suits a veteran coach like Carroll and veteran laden player group just fine in Seattle as they will be primed to spring the upset.  HC Carroll is 21-9 SU with Seattle in December games and has won and covered three straight vs NFC East opponents during this month. The Hawks QB Russell Wilson thrives in December tilts going 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS vs .666 or better opposition late in the season when the veteran seems to shine the most.

Seattle's HC Carroll is 17-4 ATS  L/21  vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing  7.5 yards or less  per return in the second half of the season in his career.

NFL Favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight are 9-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 76% for bettors.

Play on Seattle to cover 1 unit reg selection

New Orleans  (8-3) eight-game winning streak came to an abrupt end  last week in LA vs the Rams, and now they  find them selves in  a position to lose their NFC South lead as the Carolina Panthers, who are also 8-3, come into the Mercedes-Benz Superdome on Sunday looking to avenge a 34-13 loss to the Saints in Week 3.  The Panthers have won four straight games to move back into a statistical tie with the Saints atop the division, and are my pick today to get us the cover in what I'm betting will be a hard fought affair that could easily be won with a late FG. New Orleans head coach Payton knows about the freight train that is coming his way QUOTE:  ."The last four weeks, they're running the ball extremely well," he said. "Their plus-minus in the turnover ratio has flopped entirely. Defensively, you're seeing one of the better defenses in the league right now when you look at total yards, scoring -- pick a number. They're healthy and I think playing with a lot of confidence. The time of possession has been significantly in their favor as well. Certainly, in this winning stretch, they're first in the league." END QUOTE. I'll back the Saints coach here and recommend we take the points with the talented and peeking visitors.

CAROLINA is 6-0 ATS  L/6 as a road underdog of 7 points or less.CAROLINA is 9-1 ATS  after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game.NEW ORLEANS is 4-14 ATS L/18  after covering the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games.

Play on Carolina to cover 1 unit reg selection

I don't like to make it a habit laying more than a TD on the road with any NFL team, but if their are rare exceptions and  this is one of them, as I recommend we lay the lumber with the defending New England Pats this afternoon on the road in Buffalo. After a slow start to their current campaign, the Pats have seemingly got better with each progressive game, on both sides of the ball. The Pats have not allowed more than 17 points in any of their L/7 games, with opposing offenses averaging just 11.5 ppg . On offense  QB Brady and company have scored 41,33, and 35 points respectively in their three most recent tilts and are revving on all engines at the moment and ready for a huge take off. |Meanwhile, Buffalo has been wildly inconsistent this season, and in a recent home game vs New Orleans were clobbered a 47-10 count. In last years visit to Buffalo the Pats won by a 41-25 count in a game that was not as close as the score might indicate. With that said, I'm betting on a rinse and repeat situation and a conclusive Patriots win and cover. Note: The Pats covered a 17 point home favs last week, and this number even here on the road is very beatable.

Patriots are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.Patriots are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 road games.

NEW ENGLAND is 15-0 ATS   after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games with the average margin of victory coming by 16.3 ppg. 

Play on the New England Patriots to cover 1 unit reg selection

Minnesota (9-2)  is playing at a very high level and at the head of their division  and have  won seven straight games as they head south to face the Falcons (7-4) on Sunday. The Vikings have a chance at home-field advantage in the play offs and will be primed and ready to take out their hosts. QUOTE: "We've yet to accomplish everything we want to accomplish, and we've got a lot of work ahead of us, but we're hungry for it," said Case Keenum, who has earned another start this week at quarterback. "I think everybody in this locker room is hungry." END QUOTE:

The current numbers and my own power rankings suggest that Minnesota is the superior side. Minnesota is fifth in the NFL with 375.7 yards per game, while  Atlanta's some times explosive offense has recorded 373.4 yards per game. The Vikings are eighth in scoring (24.6 points per game) to the Falcons in 11th (24.1) in the league. Note: There are Two injury concerns for the Falcons that put them at a disadvantage vs the Vikings as  starting cornerbacks Brian Poole and Desmond Trufant. Both left last week's game and did not practice Wednesday. Poole is dealing with a back injury, while Trufant has a concussion.

I know Atlanta has been hot of late, but this franchise has not dealt well with success at least from a ATS perspective very well after some top tier efforts as is obvious  by their 2-17 ATS  L/19 run  in home games after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread.

ATLANTA is 6-16 ATS  L/22 vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. MINNESOTA is 8-0 ATS  L/8 off a win against a division rival.MINNESOTA is 16-3 ATS  L/19 after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread.ATLANTA is 3-15 ATS  L/18  in home games off a home win by 10 points or more which happened against TB last time out .

The Falcons are 0-10 ATS failing to cover by an average of 8.8 ppg  on turf off a game as a favorite when the line is within 3 of pick and they are averaging at least 24 points per game over their last three games. they were 2-8 SU during that ATS run with the two wins coming by 2 points and 1 point respectively.

NFL Road teams (MINNESOTA) - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/G committed) vs a team with 1.25 or less TO/G forced after 8+ games, after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 44-17 ATS L/34 seasons for a 72% long term conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Minnesota to cover

The Dallas Cowboys and Washington Redskins are two teams still vying for a wild card spot and this game is important to both teams chances. In their first meeting this season Dallas beat up on the Skins by a 33-19 count. Now with revenge, on board for that defeat they have a good chance of getting their payback with  RB Ezekiel Eliiott  out of the Cowboys lineup because of suspension. The Boyz are 0-3 ATS since star back  was sidelined, and have gained an average of  just 246 YPG in those tilts, and are fade material here because of their ineptness.

WASHINGTON is 13-3 ATS  L/16 vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last few seasons. DALLAS is 0-6 ATS  L/6  in home games after scoring 14 points or less last game which happened last time out vs the LA Chargers ina ugly DD home loss.DALLAS is 0-6 ATS  L/6  in home games after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game . Cowboys HC Garrett is 6-24 ATS  L/30 in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse  and is  1-9 ATS  L/10  in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season .

Play on the Washington Redskins to cover 1 unit reg selection

 The Baltimore Ravens under HC John Harbaugh , have gone 11-1 SU in night games -- the best mark in the NFL. The Ravens have also won nine consecutive prime-time matchups, also the longest streak in the NFL.Joe Flacco the Baltimore Ravens QB loves to perform under the prime time lights when at home , and is 12-1 SU in those tilts. Flacco has been a  TD plus fav 36 times in his career and 32-3 SU in those games and should once again thrive vs a Hosuton D ranked 32nd in the NFL vs the pass. it must also be noted that  Baltimore looked good last time out getting shut out win vs Green Bay 23-0 and are well positioned to take out another team with QB problems. Meanwhile, the visiting  Texans are trying to be competitive after losing starting quarterback Deshaun Watson, who suffered a season-ending knee injury in practice earlier this month . Houston is  just 2-8 SU on Mondays and 1-9 ATS and look very much like fade material in this spot. The Texans did beat a lethargic looking Arizona group last time out, but I'm betting their fortunes will be reversed this evening. BALTIMORE is 11-2 ATS  L/13  in home games after a win by 21 or more points. BALTIMORE is 4-0 SU L/4 at home in this series.

Play on Baltimore to cover

The Seattle Seahawks enter this game banged up with multiple injuries, and on a short weeks rest after playing Monday night in a 34-31 home loss to the Atlanta Falcons. Meanwhile, San Francisco last time out pulled off their first win of the season, and than went on their bye week. Now well rested and with confidence and momentum on their sides I'm betting they give the Hawks more than they may have bargained for. Note: In their first meeting this season Seattle pulled off a 12-9 sleep fest failing to cover as -13.5 point chalk.

Historical trend:The Niners are 11-1 ATS L/12 off a victory vs .500 or better side off a Monday night tilt.

NFL Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a lower tier team ( 25% or less ) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season are 55-23 L/34 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the SF 49ers to cover 1 unit reg selection

Carolina except for a few glitches this season has looked a like a solid contender in the NFC and must be respected on this line. The Panthers have played their best defensive football on the road this season and held their L/5 hosts to  a season low in yards and have covered 5 of their L/6 away tilts. Both teams are rested so their no advantage for either team from that perspective. The only advantage comes via what  is on paper and so far this season on the playing field  is the super side. Hit it with CAROLINA.

The Jets have lost 12 straight  and 1-15 ATS L/16 after a road game in which they allowed at least 7.5 points fewer than their season-to-date average and they are not a double-digit dog .

CAROLINA is 33-13 ATS L/46 when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) in the second half of the season.

 NFL Favorites of -160 to -475 vs. the money line (CAROLINA) - average passing team (5.9-6.7 PY/Att.) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PY/Att.) are 29-2 winning by an average of 10.8 ppg which qualifies as an  viable ATS trend on this chalk line.

Play on Carolina to cover

The Tennessee Titans will  bring with them a  nine-year losing streak at Lucas Oil Stadium when they visit the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday afternoon losing SU  9 straight times .Both teams will be well rested entering the Week 12 matchup. The Colts are coming off a bye and have not played since Nov. 12, when they lost 20-17 to the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Titans will play on  nine days' rest after a Thursday night matchup in Week 11 in which they were embarrassed in a 40-17 loss to the Steelers, and showed me their an over rated team . Meanwhile, Colts quarterback Jacoby Brissett is expected to make his 10th start. He began the week in the NFL's concussion protocol . The Indy man under center has actually been impressive and has allowed his team to cover 3 straight games.  It must also be noted that the Colts are 10-0 ATs L/10 in the first of consecutive divisional games. I know the Titans took the first meeting between these teams but with revenge on board I'm betting in a reversal of fortunes.

TENNESSEE is 0-8 ATS  L/8 when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season.TENNESSEE is 0-7 ATS L/7  in road games vs. struggling  teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season. TENNESSEE is 0-8 ATS  L/8 vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season.INDIANAPOLIS is 9-0 ATS  L/9 after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games. TENNESSEE is 8-23 ATS (L/31 against conference opponents. TENNESSEE is 6-15 ATS  L/21 in road lined games.

NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (INDIANAPOLIS) - revenging a loss against opponent, off a cover where the team lost as an underdog are 33-10 ATS L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Indianapolis to cover 1 unit reg selection

After watching a motivated  victory crumble  into a crushing overtime defeat Sunday at New Orleans, the Redskins come into this game in an emotional let down situation, and are now at a disadvantage vs a NY Giants team off a rousing OT win vs KC last week. Add to that the redskins are banged up , After placing four players on injured reserve Tuesday,  and  will not even attempt a full practice before the game.  You can smell trouble brewing on the field for them this week. Look for Eli Manning and company  who is  17-8 SU  as a starter against Washington to be a catalyst this week. He has completed 493 of 841 passes (59 percent) for 5,934 yards with 28 touchdowns and 23 interceptions vs. the Redskins. He will go against a   Redskins' defense has fallen to 31st in points allowed per game.

NY GIANTS are 7-0 ATS   vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. in the second half of the season dating back a few seasons.WASHINGTON is 13-28 ATS  L/41 as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.

The Redskins are 0-18 ATS L/18 as a FG-plus favorite when they are off a road game and facing a team that has forced 4.5 or fewer punts per game. Five of those 18 games were straight up wins , with only two coming by 3 points.

The Giants are 14-0 ATS  and 12-2 SU off a home game in which they rushed the ball at least ten more times than their season-to-date average.

NFL Underdogs or pick like the Giants - after going under the total by more than 21 points in their previous game, struggling team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 50-23 ATS L/24 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Giants to cover

Chargers HC Lynn, who played high school football at Texas small-town powerhouse Celina and college football at Texas Tech, said it's one of the two biggest days in the NFL season. So you can imagine how hopped up he is to be here and what a win would mean to him vs the banged up staggering Cowboys. Los Angeles has won four of its last six, and playing at a high level and must be respected here a short road favorites. Meanwhile, Dallas Star running back Ezekiel Elliott (suspension), All-Pro left tackle Tyron Smith (back, groin) and the most important part  of the defense, linebacker Sean Lee (hamstring), are all out of the lineup making Dallas fade material today.

LA CHARGERS is 8-1 ATS L/9  in road games after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games.DALLAS is 0-6 ATS    in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games losing SU by an average of 10 ppg.

Chargers are 2-0 SU/ATS L/2 visits to Dallas.

NFL Home teams like Dallas - good rushing team - averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry, after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game are 16-41 ATS L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on LA Chargers to cover

The Detroit Lions were the last team to beat the red hot Minnesota Vikings, back in in Minnesota on Oct 1 ( 14-7). The Lions matchup well against the Vikings according to my own power rankings, as Detroit is bidding for its third sweep of the season series in four years. I'm recommending we take the points with the home team here today on thanksgiving day.

DETROIT is 8-1 ATS L/9 in November games over the last few seasons.MINNESOTA is 26-43 ATS  L/69 as a road favorite.

The Lions are 12-0 ATS/SU  on turf when the line is within 3 of pick and they are off a win in which they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards winning SU by an average of 9.17 ppg and covering by more than 8.79 ppg.

The Vikings are 0-14 ATS / 3-11 SU on the road off a TD-plus win in which they did not score in the first quarter with the 3 SU   wins coming by 3, 3 and 4 points.

NFL team LIONS- mistake-free team ( 1.25 TO/G  or less committed) vs a team with 1.25 TO/G  or less forced after 8+ games, after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 39-15 ATS for a 72% conversion rate for bettors dating back 24 seasons.

Play on the Detroit Lions to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Dallas Cowboys cannot really afford another loss, at this juncture of the season, and will be hell bent on taking out the red hot Philadelphia Eagles this Sunday night deep in the heart of Texas. Add to that the Cowboys have revenge on board for last seasons divisional play off loss, to these same Eagles and you have a hyped up and desperate side to back.  It must be noted that the Cowboys are 7-0 ATS L/7 on  Sundays playing with revenge with 6 of those games SU victories and are 31-16 ATS L/47 as home dogs.

PHILADELPHIA is 0-6 ATS  L/6  in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65  or more yards/play.DALLAS is 34-18 ATS L/52 after a loss by 14 or more points which happened last time out.

NFL Road favorites like Philadelphia  - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after leading in their previous game by 21 or more points at the half are 19-45 ATS L/34 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.  

Play on the Dallas Cowboys to cover 1 unit reg selection

TB look like viable bets here as they come off a 15-10 win vs the Jets last week. I expect them to carry that  confidence of that victory here this week, into this tilt vs a Miami side that has been outgained in 7 of its L/9 games by an average of 66 ypg. The Fins are worse than their 4-5 record, and must not be over estimated in their ability to cover or win here even at home. The Fish have failed to cover 5 straight in this series, and are 1-8 ATS overall. Look for Buccaneer B Ryan Fitzpatrick to  just enough to get team to the promised land in game of two downtrodden sides.

MIAMI is 3-12 ATS  L/15 after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game .TAMPA BAY is 8-1 ATS  L/9 in weeks 10 through 13 over the last few seasons.TAMPA BAY is 17-6 ATS  L/23 in road games after having lost 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games .

NFL team vs the money line like Miami - with a poor offense - averaging 4.8 or less yards/play, after allowing 500 or more total yards in their previous game are just 3-29  SU dating back 24 seasons for a go against SU conversion rate of 91% for bettors.

NFL Home teams like Miami - off a road loss, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%) are 18-51 ATS since 1983 for a go against conversion rate of 74% for bettors.

Play on Tampa Bay to cover 1 unit reg selection

Its taken me some time to be persuaded that the Rams are for real. Well this week, I've finally come to the conclusion they are. After consistently beating up on opponents  winning 4 straight and outscoring their L/3 opponents by a 117- 24 count their cross reference power rankings have skyrocketed.  With that said I;m sold on the Rams abilities and will back them today vs a what I still believe is a over rated Minnesota Vikings group that showed some vulnerabilities defensively last week by allowing Washington to put 30 points on the board against them.  I'm also betting Case Keenum  the upstart QB of the Vikings does not matchup well against this Rams smash mouth defense very well, and could find himself on his back quite a bit this week.

NFL team vs the money line like the LA Rams - good offensive team - scoring 24 or more points/game, after allowing 17 points or less in 4 straight games are 25-2 SU L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Rams to cover 1 unit reg selection

Tennessee enters this game with 4 straight wins as does their hosts the Pittsburgh Steelers. but according to my own cross reference power rankings and head to head matchup stats the Steelers are superior side.

 Steelers HC Tomlin is 13-3 ATS L/16 in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points with the average score clicking in at Steelers 27.8 opposition 18 . That number is very close to my own projections which makes the Steelers in my humble opinion a viable wagering option in this spot.

It must also be noted that Thursday night favs are 18-0 SU L/18 and 16-1-1 ATS in a non division tilt with a total of 41 or more attached to it.

Tennessee is 1-6-2 ATS L/9 vs NFC north opposition, and  their QB Marcus Mariota is just 1-7 ATS away L/8 off a win.

 
TENNESSEE is 0-7 ATS L/7 vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season.TENNESSEE is 0-8 ATS L/8 after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game losing SU by an average of 12.9 ppg.

NFL Underdogs or pick like Tennessee - after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 12-36 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Pittsburgh Steelers to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Cowboys enter this game against the Falcons having won three in a row–all by double-digits and by a combined 55 points. I was not a believer in them for much of this season, but mind is changing quickly. Even without star running back  Elliott( if he does not get another injunction on his suspension) are still a team to be reckoned with, as QB Dak Prescott has proven immune to a sophomore jinx. The Atlanta team the Cowboys are playing are not the same team that made it to last years Super Bowl and the team as whole is struggling, especially on offense which is a surprise. The Falcons have   been held to less than 20 points  four times in their L/8 games, which is not a good omen vs a Dallas D, that not allowed more than 19 points in their L/3 games. Take the points.

Atlanta HC Quinn is 4-16 ATS  L/20 vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. HC Garrett is 6-0 ATS  L/6 after outrushing opponent by 50 or more yards in 3 straight games.

Cowboys are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS win.Cowboys are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games on grass.Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

NFL Home teams like Atlanta - good rushing team (4.5 YPR or more) against a team with an average rushing defense (3.5 to 4.5 YPR), after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game are just 6-26 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 81% for bettors.

Play on the Dallas Cowboys to cover 1 unit reg selection

The San Diego Chargers have been extremely competitive all season long, and were within striking distance against the New England Pats last time out losing by 8 points, which ended a three game win streak. Now off a bye week, I'm betting the Chargers will be extremely recharged and competitive this week, and could even spring the out right upset against a  Dr. Jekyll  and Mr. Hyde Jacksonville Jags side. I know the Jags are off two impressive DD wins but they have not been good bets in the past after those type of results as is obvious  by the following trends. JACKSONVILLE is 2-10 ATS  L/12 after 2 straight wins by 10 or more points and 4-14 ATS   after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game.

LA CHARGERS is 11-2 ATS L/13  in road games vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game after 8+ games .

Chargers are 7-2 SU/ATS L/9 meetings in this series and 2-0 SU/ATS in the 2 most recent meetings over the L/3 seasons.Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a win.

Chargers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like the Chargers - off a road loss, a lower tier team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 108-61 ATS dating back 34 seasons for a long term 64% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road teams like the Chargers - off a road loss, in November games are 69-35 ATS L/10 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Chargers to cover 1 unit reg selection

Tennessee has been playing better ball of late winning three straight, but they have not always dealt well with success in the past,  even when playing against lower tier teams  and have been less than successful from a ATS perspective, as the following data/trends will explain.TENNESSEE is 0-7 ATS  L/7 when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season dating back a few seasons and  1-14 ATS L/15 against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game in the second half of the season and  0-6 ATS  L/6 vs. poor punt coverage teams, allowing  12 or more yards per return . In their history this franchise has continually under achieved for their betting backers going just 14-32 ATS  L/46 times as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Tonight I'm betting on a fast improving Bengals side that has quietly won 3 of their L/5 games to not go down without a fight here and get us the all important cover.

TENNESSEE is 8-21 ATS  L/29 against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.Titans are 11-36-4 ATS in their last 51 vs. AFC.Titans are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games in November.Bengals are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games on grass.Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings

NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like the Bengals - with a poor offense - averaging 285 or less total yards/game, after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game are 70-36 ATS dating back 34 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road teams like Cincinnati- off a road loss, in November games are 69-35 ATS L/10 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cincinnati Bengals to cover 1 unit reg selection

Lions are off a big win on Monday night football vs GB and on short rest,  could easily be in a letdown spot vs a side I'm sure their not getting up for. I know Cleveland does not inspire bettors, but they are off a bye week and on fresh legs and must not be underestimated in their ability to cover this line. It must be noted that Lions are 0-6 ATs L/6 against rested opposition with a less than .500 record, and have FAILED to cover 16 of their L/23 as 8 or more point chalk. Considering 0-5 or worse NFL teams are 18-3-1 ATS L/22 in games following a bye week, I'm betting we have value with this ugly dog. So folks, please just plug your noses, hold your breath and take the points with the Browns this Sunday.

NFL Road teams like the Browns - poor offensive team - scoring 17 or less points/game, after allowing 30 points or more last game are 49-19 ATS L/10 seasons for a 72%conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road underdogs or pick like Cleveland  - after 6 or more consecutive losses, in weeks 10 through 13 are 35-10 ATS L/34 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cleveland Browns to cover 1 unit reg selection

The AFC West-leading Kansas City Chiefs head to Texas this weekend to face a Dallas Cowboys team that is 4-3 on the season, and showing a lot of inconsistencies. Tonight against the Chiefs I'm betting the home teams  problems will be amplified as key offensive cog Boyz RB Elliott is expected to miss for the first time this week as he begins his six-game suspension for violation of the NFL's personal-conduct policy. Needless to say the Cowboys offense will be muted and the flip side I'm betting the D will also get slashed, as Dallas has had  big problems  with explosive  offenses so far this season and top tier quarterbacks . The Rams' Jared Goff and the Packers' Aaron Rodgers ripped apart the  Cowboys secondary in back-to-back losses a few weeks back. That's not a good omen for Dallas vs Chiefs man under center Smith, who has passed for 2,181 yards and 16 TDs with no interceptions this season.

KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS  L/6  in road games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game. DALLAS has been unable to take advantage of leaky Ds, and are   0-6 ATS  L/6  in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 350 or more yards/game.KANSAS CITY is 8-0 ATS L/8  in road games in the second half of the season over the last few seasons.DALLAS is 0-6 ATS  L/6 in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 Last few seasons.

The Chiefs are 11-0 ATS covering by 8.59 ppg on the road when the line is within three of pick after a home win in which they were outgained.

Play on the KC Chiefs to cover 1 unit reg selection

Seattle has owned sub par .600 or less opposition at home, going 29-2 SU L/31 only failing to cover in 8 of those tilts , and are 14-1 ATS against these type of foes looking to reap revenge like Washington. It's never easy travelling from east to west, and I'm betting the Redskins are at a disadvantage from a body clock standpoint.  With both teams operating at the opposite end of the performance spectrum, Seattle 4 straight wins - Washington 1-3 L/4/0-4 ATS, it will be an easy decision to take the home favorite at a TD or less.

WASHINGTON is 1-9 ATS  L/10  in road games off 2 straight losses against division rivals.SEATTLE is 14-3 ATS  L/17  in home games after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored. Redskins are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC.Seahawks are 24-7-2 ATS in their last 33 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.Favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

The Seahawks are 17-1 ATS and 18-0 SU as a favorite on turf after a game in which they had at least 290 passing yards of passing yards with 17 of the 18 games seeing victories by a TD or more.

Play on the Seahawks to cover 1 unit reg selection  

Meet the NFL flavor of the year. LA Rams - asking price is laying 3.5 points on the road. Despite of all the giddiness surround the Rams I'm not buying into what the pundits/linesmakers  are offering at this time, and feel like the price is  a little steep. I know the Rams are off a bye and previous to that pitched a 33-0 shutout against Arizona, but it must be noted that a team coming off a shut out of  an opponent and than are coming off a bye  have failed cover 8 of the L/10 times. Meanwhile, the Gmen are also off a bye and  in the past have been extremely capable  playing  with rest winning 6 of 7 times straight up. I know the Giants may not inspire a lot of bettors and could  be in the midst of down season, but they are still in league with strong parity. Remember the old saying folks" Any given Sunday ".

Note: Giants -QB Elie Manning is 5-0 SU/ATS in his career vs NFL West oppostion and the Giants are 7-0 SU L/7 in this series.

LA RAMS is 0-7 ATS  L/7 vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better.NY GIANTS are 10-1 ATS L/11 vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att.

The Giants are 16-0 ATS covering by an average of 7.41 ppg as a dog after a game in which they benefitted from at least 95 penalty yards. The SU record was 11-6 but none of the losses came by more than 3 points.

NFL Road favorites like the Rams  - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after leading in their previous game by 21 or more points at the half are 18-45 ATS for a 71% go against conversion rate for bettors dating back 34 seasons.LA RAMS is 2-11 ATS  L/13 after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game.

NFL team like the NY Giants  - average offensive team (4.9 to 5.4 YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.4 to 5.8 YPP), after being outgained by 100 or more total yds 2 consecutive games are 45-17 ATS L/34 seasons for a long term 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Giants to cover

The TB Bucs may not inspire bettors , but they are an interesting and under rated under performing group that can move the ball in explosive fashion when in a groove behind QB James Winston and rank second in the NFL in passing yards per game (295.4) to New England (302.1).They averaged 30 points in losses to the Cardinals and Bills but then were held out of the end zone in a 17-3 home loss to Carolina last week, the first time they failed to score a touchdown since James Winston's arrival in 2015. However with that said I'm betting this TB group that is 5-2 in the stats battles  this season will bounce back in a big way this Sunday in the Bayou vs what I'm starting to feel maybe a over rated Saints side.

TB is 9-3 ATS L/12 as away dog of 7 points or more.

TAMPA BAY is 21-9 ATS L/30  in road games after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games  with games average point margin clicking in at around a FG.

NFL Underdogs or pick like TB - an average offensive team (18 to 23 PPG) against an excellent offensive team ( 27 PPG or more), after scoring 14 points or less last game are 96-53 ATS last 34 seasons for a long term automatic 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the TB Bucs to cover 1 unit reg selection

Denver has really disappointed a lot of people this season, but when your using a young QB like Trevor Siemian that is  still trying to learn a system problems are going to rear their ugly head and they have. That's why the Broncos have said, that they will go with Osweiler a QB that has won 13 of his 21 NFL starts in this Sundays tilt vs the Eagles. I know the Eagles have looked like juggernauts, and are 7-1 on the season. But today their going to face a desperate team, with bad intentions and I'm betting if the Eagles can pull of the victory it won't come easily.

Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

NFL Road teams like Denver - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, with a losing record on the season are 43-16 ATS L/10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors thanks to bloated over done lines.

Play on the Denver Broncos to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Detroit Lions are very well rested and coming off their bye week as they prepare to face the  Pittsburgh Steelers at Ford Field on Sunday night. The Lions really showed me something before their bye , never giving up and almost coming back from huge DD deficit against the Saints in New Orleans. They looked tanked in that game early on , like I expected them to be, but somehow they found the energy to make a game of it,  in never say die fashion which was impressive to say the least. That tells me something about this team and I'm going to back them here tonight getting points. I know the Steelers are a fine team, but no team is infallible in the new NFL, as was the case when their stud veteran QB Roethlisberger’s threw five-interceptions in a 30-9 loss to Jacksonville, three weeks ago. Yes, I also know Matt Stafford the Lions QB , has not performed all that well of late, but with some rest I expect the gifted QB to be at his best in this spot and get us the cover even though he will only have one key downfield  target in Marvin Jones as  WR Golden Tate is dealing with a shoulder injury . Take the points.

Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week.Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.

NFL Home teams like the Lions  - off 1 or more straight overs, a good offensive team (23-27 PPG) against a good defensive team (14-18 PPG) are 33-11 ATS L/10 L/10 years, for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 like the Lions - a good offensive team (23-27 PPG) against a good defensive team (14-18 PPG), after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 25-6  L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Detroit Lions to cover 1 unit reg selection

The New England Pats enter this game off a hugely emotional win vs the Atlanta falcons last week, and will be in a letdown situation this week, vs a Chargers team that I feel is starting to peak and show a lot of promise as was evident last week in a 21-0 victory over Denver, which was their third straight victory. The Chargers in their 7 games this season, have been very competitive and have lost only one game by more than 7 points and that was to KC.  Today I expect they will once again stay within striking distance of the Pats and get us the cover.

LA CHARGERS is 8-1 ATS  L/9  in road games vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game LA CHARGERS is 6-0 ATS  L/6 in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better and  6-0 ATS  L/6  in road games against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season.

Road teams like the LA Chargers  - mistake-free team (1.25 TO/game committed or less ) against a team with  1.25 TO/game forced or less, after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 38-16 during the L/34 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Chargers to cover 1 unit reg selection

Last week the Oakland Raiders pulled off an miraculous upset vs the KC Chiefs with under a minute left on the clock and will now be in a huge emotional letdown situation. What was surprising was how badly the raiders had been playing previous to this as was evident by losing 4 straight games, and how average they looked all night before the big play got them a victory. I'm betting they fall back into a state of mediocrity here, vs a Buffalo side that has won 3 of their L/4 games, what has been a solid overall defense, that before last week had not allowed more than 20 points allowing an average of 14.8 ppg in 5 games. I'm betting on the Bills D once again to be the catalyst behind a win and cover in this spot.

OAKLAND is 0-8 ATS  L/8 off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog .

Favorites like Buffalo - after scoring 30 points or more last game against opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 34-13 ATS over the L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Buffalo Bills to cover 1 unit reg selection

Let me start off by saying I was never a big fan of Jay Cutler, and was not impressed by the Fins off season signing of him. While you never like to see a player injured, I must say that this injury to Cutler is a blessing in disguise for Miami, as I believe they will do much better with Matt Moore under center. Last week Moore engineered a 17 point 4th quarter comeback, and navigated his team to a win vs the NY Jets. You know, Moore is no bum, when it comes to delivering cash to his bakers he's s stud QB as his 20-9 ATS overall record would indicate including a 10-4 ATS record in away tilts. Tonight the Dolphins go up against a less than reliable favorite with a ton of issues that continues to surrender yards and points in large chunks. This version of the Ravens thanks to injuries, QB Flacccos inconsistencies (or both) and just bad coaching, is not up to par with past incarnations of the franchise and should not be mistaken as such. This is not the Ray Lewis era, its far different and as of right now does not deserve our respect on this suspect line.

BALTIMORE is 1-8 ATS  L/9 off 1 or more straight overs.

Harbaugh is 12-22 ATS  L/33 in October games, with the them and their opponents virtually tied in point production.

Ravens have lost 4 of their L/5 overall!

Dolphins QB Moore is 6-0 ATS against opposition with a .400 or better records  off consecutive SU/ATS losses.

NFL Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Baltimore - with a poor offense - averaging 285 or less total yards/game are 16-37 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 70% for bettors.

Play on the Miami Dolphins to cover 1 unit reg selection

The New England Patriots looked like they had lost last years Super Bowl before they  pulled off the greatest comeback in the history of the NFL and left the Atlanta Falcons and their fans in shock with a unlikely 34-28  victory. At one point in the 3rd quarter Atlanta was up 28-3 before the Pats woke up and decided to thrash their opponents. Now the word REVENGE is making the rounds , as Atlanta fans and their betting backers bet on this scenario playing out. However, with said, it must be noted in life that you don't always get what you want. You have to remember, that New England has won 5 championships, and are probably the best coached team in football with Belichick at the helm, and arguably the best money QB in the game Tom Brady. These guys are as big as life, and whether they show it or not are ego driven, and will not take kindly to the Falcons wanting to come here and show the world that they are the better team, and last years loss was an anomaly. Instead I expect the Pats will primed to hand out another spanking, this time taking no chances and playing a complete focused game, which is not a good omen for a Falcons side that has shown big gaps in concentration over the last few seasons, despite of their top tier talent levels.

Atlanta 's HC Quinn is 4-13 ATS  L/17 vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better.Belichick is 38-16 ATS  L/54 versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6  or more yards/play winning on average by over a TD.NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 ATS  L/7 versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6 or more  yards/play.

NEW ENGLAND is 10-0 ATS L/17 after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games.

The Patriots are 15-0 ATS /SU  covering by over 14.8 ppg on turf vs non-divisional opponent that is averaging 13+ passing first downs per game, including last season's super bowl vs the Atlanta  Falcons.

Play on the New England Patriots to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Pittsburgh Steelers are off a hard fought win vs the KC Chiefs last week, as they derailed the Chiefs undefeated season. Now in a letdown spot, vs the Cincinnati Bengals I'm betting they won't easily get by a well rested Bengals side off a bye week. It must be noted that the Bengals are 8-0 ATS L/8 after a bye week when facing a division foe with an above .500 record like the Steelers . Meanwhile, the Steelers are an ugly 1-5 ATS as chalk  against a rested side with a below .500 record and 1-5 ATS as a home favorite after a victory as a dog and Big Ben Roethlisberger is also 1-5 ATS L/6 after a SU underdog win in his career. It must also be noted that in my most recent power ranking projections that I consider the Bengals to be the most under rated team in the NFL at the moment and other than their opening loss have been extremely competitive.

CINCINNATI is 6-0 ATS  L/6 in road games after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games.HC  Tomlin of the Steelers  is 2-10 ATS  L/12 off 4 or more consecutive unders

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like the Steelers  - in a game involving two average teams (plus/minus  3 PPG differential.), after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game are just 18-45 ATS over the L/24 seasons.

Play on the Cincinnati Bengals to cover 1 unit reg selection

 The Titans behind  a not 100% healthy QB Marcus Mariota are in my humble opinion at a disadvantage in this tilt vs disrespected Indianapolis Colts side, that maybe better than expected with QB Jacoby Brisset under center, especially with T.Y. Hilton waiting to grab passes and a trio of backs that can do damage. Remember, the  43-point loss the Titans experienced vs the Texans two weeks ago, as Mariota recorded a 56 QB rating while  throwing two interceptions? Mariota and his  offense looked out of sync. So completely blaming his back up Matt Cassel for the Titans 16-10 loss to Miami last week, maybe misplaced, as the Ttians offensive line looked weak in allowing 6 sacks. Indy in my opinion is not as bad as the public and pundits might think, and maybe we vastly over rated how good the Titans were going to be this season. After all actions speak louder than words, and thus far everything written and talked about by the media about the Titans has turned out to be wrong. It's still fairly early in the season, so I won't get to down on the Titans.  As far as tonight goes, I'm expecting this to be closer than the lines-makers are expecting , and getting points to be a viable wagering investment opportunity backing a visiting Colts team that has been a curse on this Titans franchise winning 11 straight meetings.

TENNESSEE is 1-8 ATS  L/9 vs. poor teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season .TENNESSEE is 2-13 ATS  L/15 when playing against a team with a losing record .TENNESSEE is 7-20 ATS  L/27  against conference opponents .

NFL Favorites like Tennessee - off 2 consecutive road losses, in a game involving two bad teams (25% to 40%) are 8-28 ATS during the L/24 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 78% for bettors.

NFL Home teams like Tennessee  - off a road loss, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%) are 17-50 ATS dating back 24 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 75% for bettors.

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Tennessee - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 8-29 ATS dating back 10 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 79% for bettors.

Play on the Indianapolis Colts to cover 1 unit reg selection

The NFL is an interesting league , with  changes in a teams momentum from week to week , and there is  also enough parity  to justify taking a underdog like the 49ers that look futile at best in the eyes of the public.

Because of the Niners inconsistencies, there are some  exaggerated weak  lines attached to their tilts. This week, I have isolated such a line, and recommend we take the underdog getting DD points.  The old saying of  "Any given Sunday" should be given relevance here, and we should not rush to judgement about how bad a team San Francisco is as compared to the Redskins, who are far from a consistent side themselves. I know the Skins are off a bye week but  from a recent historical stand point have not faired well with rest as is evident by a  2-7 ATS record in their last 9 games following a bye week.

49ers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC.49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.49ers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.Redskins are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.Redskins are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 games in Week 6.Road team is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

WASHINGTON is 21-39 ATS  L/60  in home games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 yards per return or less and 22-45 ATS  L/67  in home games when playing against a team with a losing record.WASHINGTON is 31-52 ATS  L/83 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.

The Redskins are 0-17 ATS and 3-14 SU as a FG-plus favorite when they are off a road game and facing a team that has forced 4.5 or fewer punts per game.The Redskins are 0-10 ATS /SU  at home after a loss in which they were up by at least a TD at the end of the first quarter.

Play on the SF 49ers to cover 1 unit reg selection

GB QB Aaron Rodgers has made big comeback wins in 2 of his L/3 games, and is red hot at the moment. When the Packers man under center is on his game, he has to be considered the best QB in football along with Tom Brady. The Packers are currently a full two games atop the NFC North and early on this season look like the class of the division. Meanwhile, Minnesota is off a Monday night game, vs Chicago winning by a 20-17 count, but are just 2-11 ATS L/13 at home in division games off a Monday night tilt. It must also be noted that Rodgers is 3-0 SU/ATS in a division game vs a side of the MNF game.With the Vikings QB Sam Bradford still not 100% healthy and the Vikes running game, operating a lower level than it has over the last few seasons, I'm fading them here, as home dogs.

GREEN BAY is 30-16 ATS L/46 versus good rushing defenses - allowing 90 or less rushing yards/game.GREEN BAY is 15-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points .GB HC McCarthy is 30-10 ATS vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game .

Favorites vs. the money line like the Packers - mistake-free team (1.25 TO/game committed or less) against a team with 1.25 TO/game forced, or less after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better are 29-2 SU for a 93% conversion rate. Considering that my own projections estimate a 6 point + win for the Packers it will be an easy decision to back them here based in part on this historical data.

Play on the GB Packers to cover 1 unit reg selection

The New Orleans Saints are off two straight wins and covers and have momentum on their sides and are also well rested after coming of their bye week. Meanwhile, the visiting Lions continue to be inconsistent, and are off a disappointing loss to the Carolina Panthers last time out as hosts. It must be noted that QB Matt Stafford has not performed well on the road in his career as is evident by a 8-22 SU mark vs a winning opponent . With a lack of a running game the Lions, have become to one dimensional, and are easily figured out by opposing defenses, which makes them fade material against a Saints side, that has held their L/2 opponents to a total of 237 yards of offense.

Lions are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. NFC.Saints are a perfect 5-0 ATS/SU and  8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a bye week.Saints are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Saints are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win. Teams like the Saints returning from England and off a bye are a near perfect 8-0-1 ATS.

NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS  L/6 versus good rushing defenses - allowing 90  or less rushing yards/game and  8-0 ATS  L/8 vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game. DETROIT is 7-21 ATS  L/28  in road games after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games.

NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like the  Lions - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 40-13 ATS for a 75% conversion rate for bettors dating back 24 seasons.

Play on the New Orleans Saints to cover 1 unit reg selection

Carolina (4-1) very much looks like they have returned to the form that got them to the 2015 Super Bowl. QB Cam Newton despite of injury woes and being maligned by the pundits and even me on occasion, has shown a lot of professionalism and to his point in the season proved almost everyone wrong. He had a great game against the Lions last time out, leading his team to a 27-24 road dog win, and looks like he is on a mission.  Meanwhile, Philadelphia (4-1) is off beating up on a Arizona team with numerous issues and injuries by a lopsided 34-7 count. The Eagles have looked very competitive so far, but here in Carolina, I'm betting they are over matched, on a short line , which in my opinion makes for a viable wagering opportunity backing the host side. There is also extra motivation for the Panthers, as they look for redemption for a embarrassing DD home loss to the Saints the last time they played in front of their own fans on Sept 24.

Carolina HC Rivera is 32-13 ATS  L/45 after playing their last game on the road. CAROLINA is 18-6 ATS  L/24  in home games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging  375 or more yards/game.CAROLINA is 10-2 ATS  L/12 after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games.Eagles are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games.Panthers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

The Panthers are 15-0 SU/ 14-1 ATS as a regular season home favorite when they are off a road game and facing an opponent that is averaging at least 360 offensive yards per game. The smallest margin of victory came by 4 points , with the average margin of victory registering at 16 ppg.

NFL Home teams like Carolina - off an upset win as a road underdog, in a game involving two top-level teams (75% or better) are 23-6 ATS over the L/25 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Underdogs or pick like Philadelphia  - after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 11-35 ATS dating back 5 seasons for a 76% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Carolina Panthers to cover 1 unit reg selection

Green Bay played the Thursday night game in Week 4 and  destroyed Chicago by a DD deficit. Meanwhile, the  Cowboys have alternated wins and losses this season and looked inconsistent last week in a loss to a Rams team that must be considered a lower tier side at the moment.

After watching GB QB Aaron Rodgers operate at an extremely high level over the last couple of weeks , and knowing how streaky he is it will not be a hard decision to support a Packers side that is now in a upswing and with momentum behind them.

GREEN BAY is 6-0 ATS  L/6 off a division game. HC  Garrett is  just 2-10 ATS  as a home favorite of 3 points or less. GB HC McCarthy is 29-10 ATS  vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game. Dallas is 0-5 ATS in their last five home games against teams with winning road records.Cowboys are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games on fieldturf.Packers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win and are  4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.

NFL team like the Packers - after leading in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half against opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 31-7 ATS during the L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the GB Packers to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Rams are being made favorites here against a veteran Seattle side after upsetting the Dallas Cowboys last week in a 35-30 win. But despite of the victory the Rams are exhibiting a Swiss cheese type of defense that has allowed 93 points in their L/3 tilts and more than 400 yards in two consecutive games. It must be noted that the LA RAMS are just  2-14 ATS  after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games . Today against a Seattle side, with a great D , I'm betting the Rams find it hard to move the ball and score consistently and for the Seahwaks to use the momentum of consecutive offensive outbursts of 27 and 47 points to do a great deal of  offensive damage on their way to a cover.

Seahawks are 23-6-2 ATS in their last 31 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

Rams are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC.
LA RAMS is 1-9 ATS l/10 after the first month of the season. Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC West.

First year coaches off an underdog SU win, are just 11-31 -1 ATS in their follow up games as chalk.

Play on the Seattle Seahawks to cover 1 unit reg selection

Buffalo enters this tilt against Cincinnati with a 3-1 record, and last week went into Atlanta and beat the Atlanta Falcons straight up as 8 point dogs and the week before beat a very tough Denver team. Now they are being made 3 point opening line dogs to a Cincinnati team that has looked extremely inconsistent getting shutout in their opener by a now down graded Baltimore side, and than in week 3 fell apart after taking a big lead against the Packers, showing me their defensive deficiencies. I know they clobbered the Browns last week, but that cannot be considered surprising. This week, however, I'm betting the Bengals will have their hands full with a smash mouth D, that will have them struggling to move the ball, much like was the case in their first two games where they scored a total of 9 points.

 Bengals HC Lewis is 7-18 ATS  L/25 after a 2 game road trip .Lewis is 9-20 ATS  L/29 against AFC East division opponents and is 11-22 ATS L/33 vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game.

NFL Home favorites like the Bengals  - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 5-24 ATS dating back 5 seasons for a 82% go against conversion rate for bettors.

NFL teams vs the money line like Buffalo - mistake-free team (1.25 TO/game committed or less) against a team with 1.25 TO/game forced or less, after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better are 32-2 SU dating back 10 seasons for a 94% conversion rate!

NFL Road teams like the Bills- mistake-free team (1.25 TO/game committed or less) against a team with 1.25 TO/game or less forced, after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 38-13 ATS for a 75% conversion rate for bettors dating back 24 seasons. 

Play on the Buffalo Bills to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Detroit Lions are 3-1 on the season, after last weeks underdog win on the road vs the Minnesota Vikings. Their one loss was a controversial one, against the Atlanta Falcons where it appeared they scored a last minute TD, that was over turned by the NFL head office despite of irrefutable  evidence. Now the up trending Lions face a Carolina side, that has been very inconsistent this season, and now off an emotional letdown scenario after defeating the league champions New England Pats last time out in a Foxboro by a 33-30 count. I'm not sold on Carolina's QB Cam Newton having back to back decent games, and feel the Lions will give him a lot of headaches here in Motown on their way to a bigger win then the lines-makers estimate.

Panthers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

NFL team vs the money line like the Lions - mistake-free team (1.25 TO/game committed or less) against a team with 1.25 TO/game or less forced, after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better are 32-2 SU L/35 games for a 94% conversion rate for bettors..

Home teams like the Lions - off an upset win as a road underdog, in a game involving two top-level teams ( 75% or better) are 23-5 ATS dating back 24 seasons for a 82% conversion rate.

Play on the Detroit Lions to cover 1 unit reg selection

Many pundits are now down the New England Patriots, but any team with Tom Brady at QB and Bill Belichick as their HC is an extremely dangerous animal when wounded. I know that through four games,including Sunday's 33-30 home loss against the Carolina Panthers, the Patriots are off to their worst defensive start under coach Bill Belichick , which is surprise considering the Pats owned the best D in the league last season. However with that said, the Pats have the  talent to right their sinking ship and trend back towards their expected norm beginning tonight in Tampa Bay.

I'm not a big proponent of laying lumber on the road in any sport, but in this situation I'm betting we have an edge, behind a QB a future hall of famer in Tom Brady that is 16-3 SU/ATS off a loss as favorite and now on the road and 9-1 ATS on Thursday nights and 6-1 ATS away.

It must be noted that TB has not had success vs defenses that are allowing a lot of yards. TAMPA BAY is 3-12 ATS  L/15 in home games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing  375 or more yards/game.

NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS lL6   in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 350 or more yards/game and is 9-1 ATS  versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65  or more yards/play.NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 ATS L/7  in road games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored with the average margin of victory coming by almost 15 ppg.

TB is 0-4 ATS at home on Thursday nights.

NFL Road favorites like the Pats - excellent passing team - averaging 255 or more passing yards/game, after allowing 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games are 22-4 ATS dating back 34 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for betting backers.

Play on the New England Pats to cover 1 unit reg selection

 Some people and some teams  just don't like change. Looks like the Chargers are one of those teams. Since finding out their moving out of the comforts of San Diego , the team has nose dived. Since last December the Chargers are 1-11 SU/ATS overall and are 0-4SU/ATS in their new Stadium , where no more than 25000 people have come to watch them play lately. It's hardly a home winning environment, and once again I'm fading them in this spot.

LA CHARGERS is 0-6 ATS  L/6  in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game.PHILADELPHIA is 8-0 ATS  L/8 off 2 or more consecutive overs.

Play on Philadelphia to cover 1 unit reg selection

Last week vs a highly-respected defense in Denver, the Bills moved the  the ball with impunity in superb fashion and coasted to a  26-16 victory. QB Taylor completed 20 of 26 passes for 213 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions, and  now owns a  126 PASSER ratting , and could finally be reaching the bar that was set so high for him out of the gate in his career. Quote: “I sense that our team embraces some of the underdog role, and that’s good,” head coach Sean McDermott said. “There’s a lot of power in that. I would say that we focus on a lot that’s going on in this building, not outside of this building.” END QUOTE: With that said, I expect the Bills to give Atlanta all they can handle this week, and for their D, to be the key behind what I am betting will a Buffalo cover.

ATLANTA is 6-16 ATS L/22   in home games after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game  which happened against the Lions last time out. ATLANTA is 13-32 ATS  45  in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread.

Bills are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

NFL team vs the money line like the Bills - mistake-free team - committing 0.75 or less turnovers/game, after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better have won 38 of the L/48 times SU, thus giving us extra value getting points here.

Play on the Buffalo Bills to cover 1 unit reg selection

Baltimore's Quarterback Joe Flacco had the worst game of his entire career in London last time out. He completed eight of 18 pass attempts for just 28 yards with two interceptions. He finished with a quarterback rating of 12.0 and his team was gutted 44-7. But this is still a good Ravens team, that is not as bad as their last game might indicate. Now looking to exercise the demons of that embarrassment I expect the Ravens to give their arch rivals the Pittsburgh Steelers a fight for their money this Sunday. Baltimore has bounced back well in the past off a 20 or more point loss winning 7 of 9 games straight up and teams coming back from England are 9-0-1 ATS L/10 dating back to the 2015 season.

BALTIMORE is 9-0 ATS L/9 after being outgained by 200 or more total yds in their previous game . Baltimore has covered 3 straight in this series, and are 2-0  ATS/SU L/2 at home.

NFL Road favorites like the Steelers - outgaining opponent by 70 or more passing yards/game on the season, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 34-73 ATS dating back 34 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 68% for bettors.

Play on Baltimore to cover 1 unit reg selection

Arizona is being underestimated here in my humble opinion and listed as underdogs vs a very public Dallas side. However,  I am not totally surprised after last seasons disappointing results for the Cards, and the  top tier season that the Cowboys had. But now their seems to be decent in the Boyz locker room and side lines  with  coach  Garrett calling out RBs Elliott's hustle and or competitiveness when the RB  showed little interest in turning into a defensive player following two Dak Prescott interceptions in the Cowboys embarrassing loss at Denver last week. That kind of work ethic, tells me a story of a Dallas team that might be resting on their recent laurels and believing in their own headlines, which won't equate well in on the field performances as was the case last week . Elliott had more carries (nine) than rushing yards (eight) in that tilt and Prescott did not look like a star QB.

Despite of missing the play offs last year Bruce Arians team outstated their opponents overall, and once again look like viable post season contenders this year. It must be noted that Dallas is just 0-4 SU/ATS L/4 in this series, 0-3 SU/ATS L/3 games here in the desert losing all three as chalk. Meanwhile, Arizona is 14-1 ATS L/15 and 7-0 ATS L/7 vs NFC East opposition , and have covered 11 straight vs these teams off a victory.Arians is 6-0 ATS  L/6 as a home underdog of 3 points or less  and is 9-1 ATS  as a home underdog of 7 points or less .

Play on the Arizona Cards to cover 1 unit reg selection

Everyone loves the Raiders and their explosive attack, and they are a fine team behind an exceptional QB in Carr and a strong offensive line, but their Achilles heel remains their defense. Also with the success and attention they have garnered they now have a big target on their backs with teams very hyped up to bring them back down to earth. Tonight I'm betting that Oakland after logging a lot of miles during the L/3 weeks , first travelling out to Tennessee in a highly charged game, than flying back home to the West Coat last week for their opener, and now back east to play in DC , could easily find themselves in a letdown spot and tired against a motivated Redskins side that would love nothing more to pull off an upset. It must also be noted that the Raiders are 0-7 ATS away in Sunday games after back to back SU/ATS wins.

The Raiders are 0-13 ATS L/14 on grass after a game in which they rushed for at least 50 yards more than their season-to-date average, and are 1-12 SU losing SU by an average of 2 TDs per game, with the lone win coming by 3 points.

Play on the Washington Redskins to cover 1 unit reg selection

New Orleans have started their season, at 0-2, and while its still early, a sense of urgency now permeates around the team, and now I'm betting on big effort from the Saints against  2-0 Carolina  this Sunday. I know both teams have operated at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum , entering this tilt, but I pretty well know what to expect from both teams when they meet based on my power and head to head divergence rankings .With that said, my own numbers based on both teams strengths and weakneeses  tell me that this game will be closely contested, thus making getting points to be a viable  investment decision.

Saints HC Payton is 15-6 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses and is 19-8 ATS L/27  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. New Orelans is 4-0 ATS L/4 in this series.

NFL Home favorites like Carolina  - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games 5-23 ATS for a go against  82% conversion rate for bettors dating 5 seasons.

The Saints are 13-0 ATS L/13 when facing an undefeated team after week 1 and 9-4 SU with two losses coming by 2 points and the other two by 4 and 5 points respectively.

Play on the New Orleans Saints to cover

Atlanta (2-0) got by their first two opponents, and have yet to experience the dreaded Super Bowl hangover.However, with that said, I'm betting that hangover finally catches up with them this week vs a Detroit Lions team that is finally starting to live up to expectations behind their top tier QB Matthew Stafford. Detroit has a good recent history vs NC South opponents winning 5 straight meetings and get the nod again today,

NFL Road Favs like Atlanta - a solid team from last season-outscored opposition by 7 or more points , after a win by 10 or more points are 4-22 ATS L/26 opportunities for a go against conversion rate of 85% for bettotrs 34 seasons.

Play on the Detroit Lions to cover 1 unit reg selection 

The Rams lost at home to the Redskins last week by a  27-20 count while San Francisco looked really tough in a grinding 9-6 loss at Seattle last week. This SF team looks very much like a blue collar group looking for respect and they now have it from me after watching clips of last weeks game vs  HC Carroll and company. I know the 49ers offense has looked muted so far this season against elite defenses that are owned by the Seahawks and Panthers in their first two games, but against a Rams defense that has proven very inconsistent over the last few seasons, I'm now expecting a reversal in the Niner's offensive output and more importantly a cover in this spot.\

49ers are 3-1 SU/ATS L/4 in this series.

NFL teams like the 49ers- after scoring 9 points or less in 2 straight games are 34-11 ATS over the last 10 seasons.

NFL team vs the money line LA Rams  - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight losses, bad team from last season (25% to 40%) playing against a terrible team last year (25% or less) are 8-27 for a 77% conversion rate.

Play on the SF 49ers to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Green Bay Packers have revenge on their minds tonight against the Atlanta Falcons after last seasons, 44-21 conference final blowout that had them ousted from Super Bowl contention. Now in pay back mode, I expect the Packers who are 6-1 ATS Sunday night revengers, as dogs, and a bankroll expanding 9-1 ATS L/10 behind QB Aaron Rodgers when looking for revenge against a .750 or better opponent to get the job done here . Note: The Falcons have failed to cover 11 straight, as home chalk in reg season play following a victory when facing a side with revenge.

Play on the Green Bay Packers to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Chargers, on a short week after playing the back end of a Monday Night Football doubleheader, will be a little tired jet lagged and in an emotional letdown scenario after absorbing a heartbreaking 27-24 loss to Denver in the Mile High City in their opener. Meanwhile, Miami after having their last game cancelled because of Hurricane Irma will be well rested and fresh.

Today taking points is a viable option considering the circumstances. It must also be noted that the Chargers lost eight games by seven points or fewer last year, one of them to the Dolphins and seem to take part in an endless amount of close games, and I'm betting, as do the linesmakers, on another one here.

Last week the Chargers got run over for a 140 yads on the ground, and I'm betting that will be their downfall this week vs the Fins running attack behind Jay Ajayi.

MIAMI is 40-17 ATS against AFC West division opponents since 1992. Miami is 10-3 SU L/13 in this series.

Play on the Miami Dolphins to cover 1 unit reg selection

Last week Oakland travelled West to East in an emotional charged first game that saw them clip a strong Tennessee team in their own back yard. Now drained and tired (jet lag) and playing a side that they may over look, I expect a letdown performance that leads to a no cover decision. OAKLAND is 20-40 ATS  L/60 off a upset win as an underdog dating back 25 seasons and are 0-6 ATS following a dog win last time out and now playing a below .500 foe.

Note: The Raiders are 1-7 ATS L/8 home openers.

Any team NY Jets- team that had turnover margin of -1 /game or worse last season, in conference games are 24-5 ATS for a 83% conversion rate over the L/10 seasons. Home teams like the Raiders - poor passing defense from last season - allowed 7 or more passing yards/attempt, after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 18-44 ATS L/25 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 71% for bettors.

Play on the NY Jets to cover 1 unit reg selection

Early on in every season we get carried away with evaluating a certain team after just one game. Jacksonville looked great in beating up on the  Texans as road dogs in week 1 by a 29-7 count, while Tennessee lost to what many think will be a Super bowl contender this season the Oakland Raiders by a 26-16 score. However,  its obvious to me that Tennessee is a special team with huge potential upside, behind one of leagues premier QBs Marcus Mariota , while the Jags are a side that while looking better, have shown very little pedigree in the past and must not be over estimated for their talent levels. With that said, I'm betting on the superior team  according to my own power rankings ( Titans) to bring home the win in this spot and get us the cover as short road favs.

NFL team vs the money line like the Jags - off a upset win as an underdog, team that had a terrible record last season (25% or worse) playing a team had a winning record last year are just 1-28 L/29 times dating back 34 years.

Play on the Tennessee Titans to cover 1 unit reg selection

I'm not going to get over emotional and start judging the defending Super Bowl Champion, New England Patriots flat performance last time out, a 42-27 loss to the KC Chiefs. Being a successful team like the Pats, I think its hard sometimes getting up and motivated for any game, yes even for an opener. Add to that the amazing come from behind Super Bowl win, and an emotional letdown/hangover situation was not that surprising. Now this week, after being embarrassed in game 1 of their season, I expect Tom Brady and company will be wide awake this Sunday, which is not a good omen for the Saints chances in their home opener.

NEW ENGLAND is 16-4 ATS  L/20 in all games.NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS   after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game .NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 ATS L/10 after playing a game at home .NEW ENGLAND is 15-4 ATS  L/19 as a favorite .

The Patriots are 18-0 SU/ ATS L/18  on turf vs a non-divisional opponent when they are averaging less than 3.80 yards per rush and have won those games by an average of 18.83 ppg.

Play on the New England Patriots to cover 1 unit reg selection

Dallas hosts the New York Giants at AT&T Stadium to kick off NFL’s Sunday Night Football schedule. A lot of pundits believe that the Cowboys will continue their upward trajectory from last season, but I in my usual contrarian fashion expect some hiccups behind sophomore QB Prescott. I do however, believe the Giants to be a key contender in what should be a wide open NFC East battle. Last year, the Gmens QB Eli Manning  finally looked a little motivated last season  completing 63 percent of his passes for just over 4,000 yards and had a ratio of 26 touchdowns to 16 interceptions. In todays matchup according to my own power rankings he  matches up well against the Boysz offensive line and secondary, and should accumulate a hardy amount of yards through the air that will translate into an above average score count for the Giants. With the Cowboys RB Elliot probably out this week with a suspension, Prescott will not have an easy out if under continuous pressure which I'm betting he will be.  If if Elliot plays, it must also be noted that the Boyz will be without, Tight end Rico Gathers (concussion) and. Defensive end Damontre Moore (suspension).

Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings against Dallas. Cowboys are 1-8 ATS L/9 home openers. cowboys Garrett is 6-16 ATS as a division favorite and 3-10 ATS L/13 as a favorite of 5 points or less.DALLAS is 6-15 ATS  L/21 in games played on turf .

Play on the NY Giants to cover 1 unit reg selection

After last years less than desirable or expected results Arizona enters into this season with a chip on their shoulders, and will be primed for big opening day , vs the Detroit Lions. Meanwhile, the Lions are a decent team, that are over rated in my opinion and were lucky to make the play offs last season . I know their stud QB Stafford just signed a lucrative contract, but its not like he has been a big winner in the NFL as he owns a sub par 51-61 SU record and a 45-65-2 ATS mark. With that said, I'm betting on the Cards pulling off the cover here , while bolstering their current 7-0 SU/6-1 ATS mark in this series and converting for the 10th time in their L/11 road openers.

It must be noted that the Lions have lost 19 of their L/24 vs the NFC West.Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC and have failed to cover 5 straight dating back to last season.

Play on the Arizona Cardinals to cover 1 unit reg selection

Atlanta had a great season last year, and made it to the Super Bowl, but imploded in that tilt and eventually lost . I'm betting they experience a bit of a let down here early in the season, and have problems disposing of a Chicago Bears team that will be marginally improved this season. In the past Super Bowl finalists have not done well in their opening game of the following season, going 2-15 SU/ATS in away games. It must also be noted that the Bears are 6-0 ATS in home openers a underdogs vs non divisional opposition. Meanwhile, Atlanta has failed to cover 5 of the L/6 in this series as favorites. Chicago has a good history at home in opening games, 23-10L/33 with only 3 of the losses coming by 7 pts or more and get the nod here to stay within the number.

NFL teams like the Bears -- team that had turnover margin of -1 /game or worse last season, in conference games is 22-4 ATS dating back 10 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Chicago Bears to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Jets over hauled their team in the off season, but that is not necessarily a bad thing. Many pundits have over done how bad the Jets will be this year as the drop off in talent if looked at closely is not that bad, and I'm sure with very little pressure on them may surprise the same pundits that are dismissing them, as irrelevant . Meanwhile, the team I'm not sold on is the Buffalo Bills, behind inconsistent QB Tyrod Taylor, especially here in this spot as 9 point chalk.

Historically speaking the Jets are 19-7 ATS as division road dogs, and 7-1 ATS as a road underdog in openers.

NFL team like the Jets  - team that had turnover margin of -1 /game or worse last season, in conference games are 22-4 ATS for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Jets to cover 1 unit reg selection

New England has been head and shoulders the best team in the NFL this season, and must be respected here as short favorites in the Super Bowl against a upstart opponent the Atlanta Falcons. Of course the media, will play this up as being an evenly matched game. But I'm not sold on this scenario even though the linesmakers are making a FG game. Based on mathematics and stats, its hard to argue with the line, but every so often, more intangible facts must be focused on when handicapping a game of the this magnitude. Fact No.1 New England's QB Tom Brady is a proven future Hall of Fame long term winner, and previous Super Bowl Champion who knows how to win big games. Fact No.2 Bill Beilchick is arguably one of the NFL's greatest tacticians and coaches, and make the best of teams look ordinary. With Falcons HC Quinn's defense ranking 27th in the NFL in points allowed and starts four rookies, some open sided disadvantages are apparent in this Super Bowl. And yes, I know Falcons QB Matt Ryan is a stud QB, but he has proven inconsistent in his career and is far from bullet proof as a pocket passer, and was was heavily pressured in losses to the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles in the regular season. With that said, taking the Patriots for me is no brainer, and win or lose I feel confident this is the right side to be on this Sunday for Super Bowl XXXVIII. 

NEW ENGLAND is 7-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season with the average margin of victory coming by 12.3 ppg. NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS L/9 vs. top tier passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game winning by just under 20 ppg and is 10-1 ATS versus top tier offensive teams - averaging 6 or more yards/play and 14-3 ATS as a favorite this season.

Play on the New England Patriots to cover 1 unit reg selection

Ben Rothlisberger the QB of the Steelers has seen photographed with a walking boot, wnich tells a story of a leg injury,. Even before this happened I was leaning towards the Chiefs here at home at Arrowhead, but now I am 100% all in .KC HC Andy Reid is an amazing 18-0 SU in his career when his side is playing with rest against a sub par .888 opponent like Pittsburgh. ( NFL visiting teams in Steelers HC Tomlins 10 games have only covered 1 time) 

KANSAS CITY is 7-0 ATS L/7 after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game this season which occurred vs San Diego. 

NFL Favorites like KANSAS CITY - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent streaking team like the STEELERS, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games are 31-7 ATS dating back to the 2006/7 season.

Play on the KC Chiefs to cover - TOP PLAY- PLAY OFF GAME OF THE YEAR 

Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson enters  6-0 SU as a playoff favorite of 3 or more points. 

Meanwhile, the Lions are 0-16 SU and 2-12-2 ATS away versus the NFC West since 2001 The Lions are also .0-8 SU and 1-6-1 ATS in postseason play and from a matchup perspective Saettle is the superior side here in Starbucks land.

SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS L/6 in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more  yards/play in the second half of the season winning SU by an average of 16.5 ppg. 

It must be noted that the Seahawks' six playoff wins since 2013 are the most in the NFL, and Seattle owns a 48-13 home SU record (including playoffs) since Carroll arrived in 2010.

NFL Favorites like Seattle  - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, with a winning record in the second half of the season are 42-18 ATS for a 70% conversion rate.  

Play on the Seattle Seahawks to cover 1 unit reg selection 

The Lions enter this game  off two road losses, including a 42-21 smash down at the hands of the NFC's top team, Dallas, on Monday night. Now on short rest , and with their starting QB Stafford  in  a funk having  thrown four interceptions in the past three games since suffering ligament damage 3 weeks ago to his right middle finger vs Chicago , the Lions look like fade material vs a Packers side in top form. I know the Lions have won last six home games, but have had to come from behind all 6 times to get the win, but I am betting  their luck is set to come to abrupt end in this spot. NFL Road teams like Green Bay - after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season, 23-5  ATS. 

Play on the Green Bay Packers to cover 1 unit reg selection 

The Raiders a team that has won 8 of their L/9 games can secure the division title and a first-round bye in the playoffs with a win in the regular season finale against the Broncos. Needless to say the Raiders will be hyped up to perform, even though they are without starting QB Carr who broke his leg last week. The Raiders still get a decent QB in backup Matt McGloin,,  including a punishing offensive line that cleared the way for a 114-yard game by running back Latavius Murray in the first meeting against the Broncos and explosive WRs  ceivers Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. Meanwhile,  Denvers Coach Gary Kubiak said he plans to play both quarterback Trevor Siemian and his backup, Paxton Lynch, the Broncos' first-round draft pick, which Iam betting results in a methodical and muted offensive performance from the Broncos. Road teams like the Raiders - after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season are 23-5 ATS since 2011.  DENVER is 2-9 ATS L/11 versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more yards/play in the second half of the season.-

OAKLAND is 9-1 ATS L/10 in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season.DENVER is 0-6 ATS L/6 in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 2 seasons. 

Play on the Oakland Raiders to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Arizona had a horrible season, well below expectations, but came out one final time last Sunday, and upset Seattle. But now on the road for a second straight week, and in an emotional letdown state vs a lowly side that will keep them from being motivated, Im betting they fail to get the cover .Arizona  is 3-11 SU and 4-10 ATS away following Seattle, and is also 0-8 SU away in fi nal games of the season.

LA Rams to cover 1 unit reg selection 

The Indianapolis Colts take on the Jacksonville Jaguars in a game , that I am betting sees a conclusive Colts victory. Both don;t have play off aspirations, but both would obviously like to end their seasons on a high note.  I know Jacksonville, after the firing of their coach, came out pumped up and delivered a resounding victory, vs Tennessee last week, by a 38-17 count. But it must be noted that NFL Road underdogs or pick like Jaguars - off a upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog against opponent off a road loss, which Indy sufferred last week. are 19-48 ATS in their follow up game for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

JACKSONVILLE is 6-16 ATS L/22 in road games off a home win by 10 points or more and is  7-20 ATS L/27 after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game. The Jaguars are also 0-13 SU off a win, when going against .400 or less competition and 0-10 SU in final away games. Meanwhile, Colts QB Andrew Luck is 20-3 lifetime SU/ATS off a SU/ATS loss, including 12-0 SU/ATS against a below .500 opponent. 

Play on Indianapolis to cover 1 unit reg selection 

 Kansas City enters this game having to take on a defending Super Bowl Champion that needs to win or a chance at a play off spot.  It must be noted that defending chmaps have only failed to cover 2 of their L13 as underdogs off consecutive losses, which they have just endured and 4-0-1 ATS L/5 under those peremiters. Meanwhile, the Chiefs in my humble opinion are over rated and despite of being 10-4 are just 4-10 in the stats battles in those tilts, and are fortunate to have their current winning record.  Im going against a KC side, that  is producing ugly offensive numbers as they are No. 23 in offensive yards per game (331.4) and ranks 15th in points with an average of 22.8 points per game. They are No. 27 on third downs (34.8 percent) and No. 27 in the red zone (44.4 percent.) Meanwhile, the The Broncos are own one of the NFLs best Ds, allowing 310.9 yards per game (No. 2) and only 183 passing yards (No. 1). They are fourth in fewest points allowed, at an average of 18.4 points per game. Denver has won its lat two visits here and will take the cash for us again. 

Play on Denver to cover 1 unit reg selection

Even without quarterback Ryan Tannehill, the Miami Dolphins remain a team that is finding ways to win. These types of tenacious teams are always good bets. The Dolphins (9-5) have won eight of their last nine games and control their fate in the AFC wild-card race and despite of not always looking pretty on the NFL Sunday stage, have muscled their way into a possible play off spot. Yes, I know Miami has not won in Buffalo since 2011, but interim QB Matt Moore was the Dolphins' quarterback for that game and has the experience needed to guide this Fins team to a cover and possible upset in Buffalo this Saturday.Miami relied on its running game to come back and beat Buffalo, 28-25, at home in Week 8, and Im betting RB Jay Ajayi who had 214 of the Dolphins' 256 rushing yards to be the catalyst again.

NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like the Fins - after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning record in the second half of the season are 20-10 ATS or a 66% conversion rate.

The Bills are 0-14 ATS as a favorite over a divisional opponent after a double-digit win as a favorite in which they had fewer than ten incompletions.

Play on the Miami Dolphins to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Washington has lost three of its past four games and look like very weak favorites this week vs a Chicago Bears team that has been fiesty of late despite of a ugly over all record.  Quote: "Our guys keep believing," said Bears quarterback Matt Barkley, who will make his fifth start in place of injured teammates Jay Cutler and Brian Hoyer. "They never count themselves out. (It's important) just to keep that positive attitude in the huddle and keep that positive attitude on the sideline to know that we're still in it." ED QUOTE. I know QB Cousins of Washington is dangerous and explosive with a healthy WR Reed taking catches, but Reeds been hampered by a sore shoulder. Also the Bears pass D, is solid, as they counter with an above-average pass rush that features three players with at least seven sacks.  

CHICAGO is 7-0 ATS L/7  vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att and 8-0 ATS L/8 versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more yards/play .CHICAGO is 11-0 ATS L/11 off a home cover where the team lost as an underdog, which happened against GB last week and is 11-2 ATS L/13 after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games.

Chicago Bears to cover 1 unit reg selection 

acksonville looks to spoil the Tennessee Titans current run towards a post season slot. Jacksonville  has lost 9 straight, and this past Sunday fired Gus Bradley.  But are still capable of packing a punch vs a Titans side that might be looking towards next week finale vs the Houston Texans.Titans coach Mike Mularkey had one consistent repeat message for his club this week: Don't overlook the Jacksonville Jaguars, but that 's easier said than done. I know the Jags don't give alot of betting backers confidence, and have some injuries and a new coach, but the lines-makers, despite of all this still only make the visiting Titans 4.5 point favorites and for good reason. It must also be noted they last time interim head coach Marrone coached back in 2014/14 he, was 5-0 ATS off consecutive losses and the Jags are a perfect 5-0 ATS L/5 final home games of the season.

Jacksonville Jaguars to cover 1 unit reg selection 

The Oakland Raiders visit the San Diego Chargers in a game that will feature two to the best QBs in the NFL. The Chargers Philip Rivers and Raiders Derek Carr. Both teams have offensive weapons, but Im betting on the Raiders being able to make a few more key stops, to pull off a victory here this Sunday.

Chargers HC McCoy is 0-7 ATS L/7 in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. SAN DIEGO is 0-7 ATS L/7 in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game, like the Raiders losing SU by an average of 8.9 ppg. SAN DIEGO is 0-7 ATS L/7 in home games after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games. OAKLAND is 10-1 ATS L/11 in road games against conference opponents. 

Play on the Oakland Raiders to cover 1 unit reg selection 

After losing to the Miami Dolphins last week  26-23 in heart breaking fashion, the Arizona Cards are now out of the running for a post season birth and come home in a big time letdown situation. Now enters Drew Brees and the leagues No. 1-rated offense of the Saints, who are averaging 418.3 yards per game. I know Arizona has put big defensive numbers up this season, but they are dealing with some injury issues, and as mentioned above a motivational issue this week.

Arizona has also failed to cover 4 straight final home games of the season and have failed to cover 6 of their L/7 overall.

NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS L/17  as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Home favorites Cardinals  - off a road loss, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%) are a bankroll depleting 15-44 ATS in their followup for a 75% go against conversion rate on the line. 

Play on the New Orleans Saints to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Just one victory away from clinching a spot in the AFC playoffs, the Kansas City Chiefs host the Tennessee Titans on Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium. I am however, betting that win if they get it will come so easily. The 7-6 Titans will arrive in Kansas City with their postseason chances still alive and will play for their lives here today. I know the Titans QB Mariota is off a down game last time vs Denver, but the  AFC's Offensive Player of the Month in November will bounce back in a big way. Last week, the Cheifs were lucky to stall the Raiders, in key red zone situations, but this week, they face a Tennessee  side that owns the  NFL's top offense in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on 71.4 percent of its 42 trips inside the 20-yard line .

HC  Reid of KC  is 1-9 ATS  in lifetime home games against AFC South division opponents.

Play on the Tennessee Titans to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Cincinnati despite of suffering through a down year, have won and covered two straight, and have been very competitive in 6 straight games, losing by 1 , 4, and points in their losses. Today against their instate rivals the Steelers I expect we will see the very best of the Bengals, as they would love nothing more than to upset their play off expectations. 

PITTSBURGH is 5-16 ATS L/21 in road games after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games. CINCINNATI is 8-1 ATS L/9 after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games. The Bengals  are a perfect 5-0 ATS L/5 home situations.

Play on the Cincinnati Bengals to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Houston after suffering 3 straight losses snapped their losing streak with a 22-17 win vs the Indy Colts last week. Their running game and a grinding methodical effort got them to the promised land. But it must be noted that HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS L/6  after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game. I know Jacksonville may not inspire alot of bettors, but according to my own power ranking should only be 3 point dogs, here which gives us value on the line. 

Road underdogs or pick like the Jags - after 7 or more consecutive losses, in the second half of the season are 51-21 ATS for a massive 70% conversion rate for betting backers. 

Play on the Jacksonville Jags to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Sunday's matchup between rust belt rivals Pittsburgh and Buffalo sets up a situation where a Steelers team that is on a three game winning streak uses its momentum to take out their hosts the Bills.Pittsburgh a side that has won 6 straight stats battles,controls its fate over the final four weeks of this season, and cannot afford a single loss, and will play like its sudden death. The Bills (6-6) are not out of the playoff picture, but things look dim. When looking at the matchup the main issues that Buffalo's has is a ugly pass offense that ranks last in the NFL .Im betting they will have trouble again this week, keeping up with a balanced Pittsburgh attack, that can score through the air or with the ground game. ( Steelers are 9-1 SU L/10 vs the Bills).

Pittsburgh to cover 1 unit reg selection

Miami is a over rated side, and have lost the stats battles in 4 of their L/5 games. They entered last week with 6 straight wins, before falling apart in a 38-6 smack down at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens. Now the Fins go against a Arizona side with a 5-6- 1-record and are in a no mistake free zone. HC Arians and company can not afford another loss if they hope to get into the play offs, so they will be primed to get a victory, and will be ready to play with some heart and soul. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are 1-9 ATS L/10 vs below .500 NFC visiting sides, and have only covered 5 o their 19 vs the NFC West. MIAMI is 0-6 ATS L/6 in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season .MIAMI is 0-10 ATS L/11 in December games and is 0-6 ATS L/6 after allowing 35 points or more last game. Cards HC Arians is 6-0 ATS L/6 in road games in December games as the coach
Home teams like the Dolphins - a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are just 38-73 ATS dating back to the 2003 season and NFL home teams like the Fins with a lone of +3 to -3 a slow starting team outscored by 5+ ppg in the first half, after scoring 14 points or less last game are just 17-47 ATS over the L/10 seasons. 

Play on the Arizona Cards to cover 1 unit reg selection

Kansas City and Oakland do battle tonight, in a AFC battle, that should be hard fought. The Chiefs despite of their current 7-1 run, have been through some brutal battles, and have lost the stats wars in their L/5 games and are pretty lucky to be on this big of a run. I know KC beat up up on the Raiders in a earlier meeting in the Black hole, earlier this season 26-10, but things are different now with super star QB Carr moving  into top tier NFL status. With that said,  the Raiders must be respected enough to get the revenge they seek. Oakland is a perfect 9-0 SU/ATS as a division road underdog of 6 points or less.

We know how explosive Oakland can be on offense, but the D, has shown some inadequacies. But it must be noted that 

KANSAS CITY is 0-6 ATS L/6 in home games vs. lower tier defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game.OAKLAND is 9-0 ATS L/9 as a road underdog . OAKLAND is 10-0 ATS L/10 in road games against conference opponents.

Play on the Oakland Raiders to cover 1 unit reg selection 

With Andrew Luck now expected to play, I have decided to pull the trigger on the Indianapolis Colts tonight in their battle with the downtrodden NY Jets.Colts still have a chance at the paly offs and will be playing with desperation. Meanwhile, despite of NYJ fans demanding a QB change, the Jets will once again go with the struggling  Fitzpatrick who has thrown 13 interceptions in 10 games. Fitzpatrick has completed just 57.6 percent of his passes and looks unstable at best, and gives even more credence in my decision to lay it with Indy on the road. 

Andrew Luck is 19-4 SU and 16-4-3 ATS in division games and a perfect 8-0 SU of a Colts loss.

INDIANAPOLIS is 25-12 ATS L/27 as a road favorite of 3 points or less and HC Pogano Pagano is 10-2 ATS L/12 vs. lower tier teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season. 

Play on the Indianapolis Colts to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Arizona might not inspire alot of bettors right now after a very inconsistent season, but according to my power rankings, Washington is over rated and in a bad spot this week.It must also be noted that teams playing in non-division contests following a Thanksgiving Day appearance have lost 35 of 56 games (SU) and since 1992 are just 9-21 ATS L/30 and 9-20-1 SU away after their big Turkey dinner.. With that said, for at least one game , I expect we see a vintage Cards team take advantage of a shabby Skins D, and for their own D, to stand tall in the desert vs a Washington offense that will not be running on a full tank of gas.

ARIZONA is 17-5 ATS L/22 in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. The Cardinals are 15-0 ATS/SU at home on Sunday when the line is within 3 of pick and they lost and failed to cover their last two games.

Home teams like Arizona - after a loss by 14 or more points against opponent after scoring 25 points or more in 3 straight games are 49-21 ATS for a 70% conversion rate on the line. 

Play on Arizona to cover 1 unit reg selection