The public was all over the Cleveland in game 1 of the season, and they lost big time when the Browns crapped the bed in their opener for their 19th loss in 21 seasons in their opening game(includes a tie). Im still not a believer in a team with no winning culture in place, and despite of the upgrades and fantasy like dreams of a Super Bowl by the pundits and their supporters, I believe we should all temper our expectations at least for now on how good the Browns will be this season. I also don't think they deserve to road favs in this spot vs a hard nosed NY Jets team that matches up fairly well against them. With that said, Im recommending we take the points here tonight. 

Cleveland 0-3 ATS L/3 Monday night tilts. NY Jets are 5-1 ATS L/6 in this series. Cleveland is 2-12 ATS L/14 coming off a loss.

Road teams vs. the money line (CLEVELAND) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 35 points in their previous game, in conference games are 4-24 SU L/36 seasons for a go against  85% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Favorites (CLEVELAND) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 24 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 15-40 ATS since 1983 for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Jets to cover 

Philadelphia's Darren Sproles, Jordan Howard and rookie Miles Sanders combined for 116 yards rushing on 26 carries in Week 1 against Washington, helping the Eagles rally from a 17-point deficit for a 32-27 win. This Philadelphia team looked rejuvenated and like they were on a mission, and have momentum and chip on their shoulders coming into this game against the Atlanta Hawks a team that coming off a ugly looking 28-12 defeat  at Minnesota in the season opener. Note: The Falcons were gashed by the  Vikings   for 172 yards on the ground and the three headed monster of Sproles, Howard and Sanders should be ready for a field day here on Sunday night Football. 

Quinn  the Falcons HC has now lost 11 of his last 18 games going back to the playoffs and is fade material according to my power rankings. 

Philadelphia is 5-0 SU/ATS away vs a side of a  away SU loss.Eagles are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 meetings.

Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

ATLANTA is 1-9 ATS in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 2 seasons.Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.

NFL Underdogs  (ATLANTA) - after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game are 3-32 SU L/5 seasons for a  go against 94% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to  cover 

The Chicago Bears and the Denver Broncos are both off opening week losses, and will be primed to bounce back.

The Bears offense managed just 254 yards in their opening loss last Thursday, but the defense held the Packers to 213 yards, including allowing Aaron Rodgers to throw for just 166 yards and Im betting they will be key to slowing down QB Joe Flacco and  the Broncos here in this tilt. The Bears have had extra rest , while Denver is on short rest. Note: Broncos are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. Green By is 3-0 ATS vs teams coming off aMonday night game.

Bears are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

CHICAGO is 20-6 ATS against AFC West division opponents since 1992.Since 2014, a team like the Bears that did not cover at home in Week 1, and is on the road in Week 2, is 22-7 ATS (75%) in that Week 2 away tilt.

DENVER is 0-6 ATS off a loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons and is is 0-8 ATS after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half over the last 3 seasons.

 NFL Home teams (DENVER) - poor passing defense from last season - allowed 7 or more passing yards/attempt, in non-conference games are 8-30 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Chicago Bears to cover 

This is a battle of NFC North competitors here this Sunday as the Minnesota Vikings and Green put  their early season undefeated records on the line. Both are off wins , but the Packers looked better in their win than the Vikings who were out gained 345-269 but still managed to win vs Atlanta.  Here today Im betting home field advantage will hold.  Hey, I know the Packers have not beaten the Vikings since the 2016 season, but that means this crowd and the Packers are going to be up for this tilt and play with a lot of energy. Note: Rodgers  is 23-6-1 SU in  his career in home division games, and 11-0-1 SU in the first 6 games of the season at home vs division rivals. We all know how proud Aaron Rodgers is and how much pride this franchise has as a whole. Its early and I could change my mind, based as the season progresses, but there seems to be something special abut this group of Cheese Heads, and for now Im betting on that to be on full display here today. 

Minnesota has only won 2 of their L/11 road openers vs division opponents.Vikings are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

Play on the Green Bay Packers to cover 

The Steelers were embarrassed last week vs the New England Pats by a score of 33-3 in their road opener and now they will be out looking for redemption in front of their home town fans this Sunday. No pro likes to be embarrassed and Ben Rothlisberger is a prime example of this , winning and covering 8 straight SU/ATS after losing by 18 or more points. Im betting the Steelers bounce back here vs a Seattle team that is just 2-12 ATS and 1-12-1 SU L/13 road openers dating back to the 2005 campaign. 

The last  two times these 2 teams met here in Pittsburgh the Steelers won 24-0 and 21-0 and another strong effort is on todays agenda. 

PITTSBURGH is 108-79 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.  

NFL Favorites (PITTSBURGH) - after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half are 59-27 . ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Pittsburgh Steelers to cover 

 The betting public are starting to be sold on the  Broncos, who   with QB Joe Flacco  now in the fold and Vic Fangio back as the defensive ordinator are considered possible play off contenders . However, the Raiders despite of being expected to be without suspended star Antonio Brown for this game are being looked upon as bad bets here this week after starting as 3 point favs . However in my usual contrarian fashion I now see some value in a situation this is being over blown. Quite honestly Brown has been a distraction to this team since being acquired and his absence may not be a bad thing. 

Broncos are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 vs. AFC.Broncos are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road games.Broncos are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. AFC West.Broncos are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 Monday games.Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.Broncos are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games in September.

Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

DENVER is 7-18 ATS in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Oakland to cover 

The Texans had a good record in 2018 but it was all smoke and mirrors and they lost in the play offs in humiliating fashion by a 21-7 count vs the Colts as chalk, barely mustering a fight and now this season Im betting things will not get much better, starting tonight against explosive New Orleans Saints. The bottom line here is that the Texans  just don't have the firepower to hang with the Saints in their home Opener on prime time TV where the Saints will want to start to with a bang after last seasons horrific officiating  call that was partially responsible for eliminating them from the play offs.  Note: Week one underdogs like the Texans of at least two or more points are 0-16 ATS/SU L/16 when they were beaten by 12 or more points  ATS  in their first playoff game last season with the average margin loss coming by 13.4 ppg. I know the Saints have lost their L/5 openers but all good and bad things must eventually come to an end.

Texans are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 road games.Texans are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.Texans are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 Monday games.

Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

Play on the New Orleans Saints to cover 

New England willed their way to a Super Bowl championship last season , but in no way shape or form were they as over powering during the reg season as many might have thought, and now the departure of Gronk , Bradys main downfield target will see the team Im betting slowly adjust to his absence. Tonight Im also betting on Roethlisberger and company to make a game of this here at Gillette Stadium. Note: Big Ben  is 35-18-2 ATS career as a underdog in the NFL  and has won 30 of those games SU.  Meanwhile, the Pats have failed to cover 8 of their L/11 at home under the Sunday night lights.

Tomlin is 30-19 ATS as an underdog as the coach of PITTSBURGH.

The Steelers are 7-1 ATS  since Dec 13, 2015 as a road dog.

The Steelers are 4-0 ATS L/4 as a dog.

NFL Favorites (NEW ENGLAND) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 2 or more straight wins are 23-51 ATS L/10 seasons for a 69%  go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Pittsburgh Steelers to cover 

Super Bowl teams like the Rams that lost have been bad bets in their followup campaign are just 17-31-1 ATS in non division road games as chalk dating back 19 seasons.It must also be noted that Defending Super Bowl loser in Game One of the season if they are away and facing a non-conference opponent are 1-15 ATS L/16 seasons. The Rams qualify here under those perimeters. Meanwhile, Carolina is according to my preseason power rankings a very under rated team that deserves respect as home dogs against any team in this league.Carolina is 5-0 ATS L/5 at home in this series vs the Rams and gets my support here today.

Panthers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games.Rams are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games in Week 1.

Take the points with Carolina to cover

Yes, QB Tom Brady maybe the greatest NFL QB of our generation, and maybe of all time and his HC Bellichck one of the top coaching minds in all of football. But Im still going to pull the trigger on the unthinkable, and go with the Rams here this week at a +FG. Yes, even  despite of  watching Tom Terrific put on another dramatic show stopper a couple of weeks ago in the championship game to get the Pats to yet another Super Bowl. I also know how fortunate the Rams are to be here thanks in part to a blown call.  However, I still feel that Brady and his side kick Gronkowski have slowed down enough to not be as intimidating as they once were, and that the Pats D, is very beatable, as was the case in last seasons Super Bowl vs Philadelphia. Plus the Rams greater body of work this season, was actually superior to that of the Pats, and many at the start of this season including myself saw this LA team as a big time Super Bowl contender and deserving champs behind a deep talented team on both sides of the ball. So here we are and Im not going to waver here in my opinion, and will take a direct stance taking points with the underdog this Super Bowl Sunday in a neutral field environment. Hey its never easy going against the tide of early money, but it must be noted that the underdog has covered 9 of the L/11 Super Bowls and won 8 of those straight up. Im looking for recent history to repeat itself here as I go against the early money. 

The Rams are 8-0 against AFC opponents since head coach Sean McVay took over the team in 2017. The Patriots have  averaged just 23.3 points per game on the road this season, which was more than 10 points lower (33.8 PPG) than what they averaged at Foxboro. They had the second worst home/away scoring difference this season, only ranking behind  the Oakland Raiders .

Play on the LA Rams to cover 

Everyone loves how explosive the KC Chiefs are offensively, but the Pats behind a future HOF QB and coach are a solid wager here as underdogs. 

In each of the last three games Tom Brady has started in which the Patriots were a dog by a field goal or less... the Pats have won by DDs. 

NEW ENGLAND is 15-1 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons which was the case last week.

Patriots are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 playoff games and are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.KANSAS CITY is 3-13 ATS  in playoff games since 1992 and s 1-9 ATS  after gaining 400 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games.

NFL team vs the money line (NEW ENGLAND) - good team (outgain opp. by 40-100 YPG) against an average team (+/- 40 YPG) after 8+ games, after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 44-7 SU L/5 seasons and 11-1 SU this season! 

Play on New England to cover 

 NFC Championship Game

The Rams. have played some of their best ball on the road going  14-3 SU away from the Coliseum under HC McVay,  dating back to last season and deserve our respect here as underdogs vs the New Orleans Saints.  The Rams D has been solid on the road this season, allowing an average of 19.9 ppg,  while it must be noted that the Saints offence has looked inconsistent down the stretch and have scored 14 or less points in 3 of their L/6 games, and only twice scored more than 20 points.  With that said, Im betting on the Rams keeping Drew Bree's and company to a minimum output while they themselves do enough damage to possibly  pull off the upset and more importantly cover the number. 

This  championship  round of the play offs has seen 13 lucky upset underdog winners since the  2000 campaign and I wont be surprised if the Rams add their names to that list after today.

NFL Road teams (LA RAMS) - excellent passing team (265 or better  PY/game) against a poor passing defence (230-265 PY/game), after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 34-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Rams to cover 

AFC Divisional Playoffs

NE super star future HOF QB Brady is 19-3 SU at home in the playoffs, including 11-1 SU and Divisional Round tilts, and Im betting he gets another win here vs the Chargers here this Sunday afternoon in Fox-borough. He has also won all 7 meetings SU vs Rivers, and must not be underestimated  despite of the aging process in his ability to lead his team to a convincing victory here again at home and get us the cover. Note: Brady is 10-0-1 ATS in playoff victories when not favored by more than 6 points. 

NEW ENGLAND is 15-4 ATS  versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons.

NEW ENGLAND is 11-1 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last 3 seasons

NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (LA CHARGERS) - off 2 consecutive road wins, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 5-26 L/35 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

New England to cover 

The Colts enter this game extremely underrated according to my matchup stats and power rankings, and this is evident by winning the stats battles 13 of their L/14 games overall. However, the books are playing to public sentiment knowing how much the public loves the Chiefs and their style of play, and have posted a over valued line on the board that favours the Colts in my humble opinion. It must be noted that the Chiefs did not play all that well down the stretch  covering only once in their L/5 overall and have a history of ugly play off performances losing 8 straight ATS at home including 6 straight SU here at Arrowhead. With the Colts Andrew Luck 2-0 SU at Arrowhead in his career is every bit as good as Chiefs QB  Patrick Mahomes and more experienced ,I expect a  Colts team that is 7-1 SU/ATS here in this venue  to have an  edge getting points . 

INDIANAPOLIS is 8-1 ATS in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better over the last 3 seasons.KANSAS CITY is 2-13 ATS in playoff games since 1992.

NFL team vs the money line (INDIANAPOLIS) - good team (outgain opp. by 40-100 YPG) against an average team (+/- 40 YPG) after 8+ games, after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 43-6 SU L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Indianapolis to cover 

The Philadelphia Eagles had to over come alot of struggles this season, to have a chance to defend their super bowl title and make it to the play offs. But now a new season begins here in the play offs vs a public sweet heart that has a lineup filled with players that generally has very little post season NFL experience. I know the Bears had a tremendous season, but under pressure vs a side that knows how to win big games  Im betting they are in trouble. Public money poured in on the Bears from the out set of the opening line, but sharp money has stormed back behind the Eagles and with that  I recommend we take the points here. 

PHILADELPHIA is 8-1 ATS versus good rushing defenses - allowing 90 or less rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons. 

NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PHILADELPHIA) - good passing team - with a completion pct of 60% or better, after gaining 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games are 26-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover 

Ravens league leading defence matches up well vs the Chargers offence as was evident only two weeks when they beat the Chargers in LA by a 22-10 count. After some early public  money came in on the Chargers the line sits at around 2.5 and is a viable option if we are backing Baltimore at home where they are 6-2 this season. 

LA CHARGERS is 0-6 ATS after playing their last game on the road this season.

Ravens are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.Ravens are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Wildcard games.

NFL Home favorites vs. the money line (BALTIMORE) - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/game committed) against a team with 1.25 or more  TO/game forced, after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better are 54-5 SU L/10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate and a perfect 9-0 this season for a 100% conversion rate. 

NFL Favorites (BALTIMORE) - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games are 30-8 ATSL/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Baltimore Ravens to cover 

 Seattles HC Pete Carroll always gets my respect, and in a key game like this Im betting his football knowledge and coaching abilities will help his hard nosed blue collar group come out on top and more importantly get us the cover vs a inconsistent Dallas crew. 

Dallas is 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS record in the playoffs since 1997.Carroll is 14-5 ATS  against NFC East division opponents as the coach of SEATTLE. Carroll is 37-23 ATS as an underdog as the coach of SEATTLE. HC Garrett is 28-40 ATS in home games as the coach of DALLAS.Garrett is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games vs. poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing 24 or more yards per return in the second half of the season as the coach of DALLAS. 

SEATTLE is 7-1 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better this season and is 8-2 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more yards/play this season. 

NFL Road teams (SEATTLE) - mistake-free team (1.25  or lessTO/G committed) vs a team with 1.25 or less TO/G forced after 8+ games, after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 29-9 L/36 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Seattle to cover 

Houstons strength is stopping the run, but teams that can pass like the Colts are a more difficult type of opponent for the Texans. In the last meeting between these teams, Houston couldn't slow down Colts quarterback Andrew Luck and wide receiver T.Y. Hilton. Hilton had nine receptions for 199 yards, and Luck passed for 399 yards and two TDs in Indy's 24-21 win in Houston. A repeat type performance is not out of the question here and actually a high probability outcome according to my projections. 

HOUSTON is 1-9 ATS  vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

O'Brien is 0-6 ATS in home games after outgaining opp by 100 or more total yards in their previous game as the coach of HOUSTON.

NFL team vs the money line (INDIANAPOLIS) - good team (outgain opp. by 40-100 YPG) against an average team (+/- 40 YPG) after 8+ games, after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 42-6 SU L/5 seasons and a perfect 9-0 this season! 

Play on the Indianapolis to cover 

The Eagles need to win and they need the Bears to beat the Vikings to get into the playoffs. Needless to say, the Eagles need only worry about taking care of their business, here. However, Im betting Washington will not be so willing a participant in letting the Eagles get a free pass in  their home finale and will cherish the opportunity to play spoilers vs the defending Super Bowl champs. . The Eagles have struggled as visitors   this season overall  as they are just 3-4 on the road, with the average point differential clicking in at -3.2. Eagles 23.1 Opp 26.3. Im recommending we go on the take .

Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.Eagles are 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC.Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC East.Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Redskins are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Redskins are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games on grass.Redskins are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.Redskins are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up loss.

WASHINGTON is 17-3 ATS L/20 versus inconsistent defensive teams - allowing 6 or less yards/play in the second half of the season.

WASHINGTON is 22-6 ATS  vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game after 8+ games. 

 PHILADELPHIA is 2-11 ATS  versus struggling  defensive teams - allowing 6 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons.

Play on the Washington Redskins to cover 

Its become obvious that KC is a one dimensional team, with an explosive offence and a atrocious porous defence, that is worse than horrible vs opposing ground games allowing 5 ypc. on average. Thats not a good omen against the Seattle team that can run the ball well. The Chiefs are currently down trending after three straight losses including a heart breaking 27-26  defeat to the LA Chargers last Monday night in the final play of the game and don't look like viable favs here in an emotional letdown own spot .  But hey the public money loves Patrick Mahomes, and in some ways I can't blame them, as he is entertaining as heck to watch. But from an imperial standpoint , KC is like a big heavy weight puncher looking for the KO, always leaving them selves open for counter punches and in turn getting knocked out themselves.  Thats why Carroll the ultimate tactician Im betting will take the Chiefs apart little by little here this Sunday evening and then deliver big blows .

Bottom line here Win or lose taking the points here is just the right thing to do , especially since standing in the line with square bettors is not an appetizing prospect. 

Meanwhile, Seattle is a side. that looks much more balanced and a side that plays their best football at home and better prepared ready to bounce back off a hard fought 26-23 loss to a SF team that was hell bent on taking them down in revenge mode. Note: Underdogs or pick (SEATTLE) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are good long term bets going 38-13 ATS L/35 seasons for a 75% conversion for bettors on the blind. Pete Carroll is also  11-0 SU  when coming off a SU favorite loss and the Seahawks are powerful 11-1 SU  after batting with the Forty Niners, including 5-0 SUATS at home,  and 5-1  ATS as a home dog behind QB Russell Wilson.

SEATTLE is 9-0 ATS L/9 in home games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing 260 or more passing yards/game after 8+ games. Carroll is 12-2 ATS in home games vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game in the second half of the season in all games he has coached since 1992. Carroll is 22-6 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 350 or more  yards/game in the second half of the season as the coach of SEATTLE. 

Seattle to cover 

Cleveland is up trending but now they're  suddenly a favourite of more than TD against a long time division rival. In my humble opinion, Im betting we have a over reaction to their recent 4-1 SU/ATS run. It is definitely  some tasty bait for a willing public to bite and bet into. At the time of this analysis,   a great deal of square dollars and tickets were backing them this week according to data. Im not saying the sharp money is always right, but more often than not, that's the case , and in this situation I  have no problem fading the public. It must be noted that the last time the Browns were more than 7 point fav was back in the 2010 and that game  they barely got by the Panthers by 1 point. Hey , I know the Browns  are looking good behind emerging star QB Baker Mayfield, and I also know the Bengals have struggled for most of this season, however, this is a  rivalry  game and Im  betting the Bengals with momentum off a  lopsided win last week, won't be giving the Browns a free pass here, and will primed to compete in a revenge scenario for a loss they suffered to them earlier this season, which snapped a 7-0 SU/ATS run in this series.

CLEVELAND is 0-7 ATS vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return over the last 2 seasons. 

NFL Home teams (CLEVELAND) - after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40 to 49%) are 4-23 ATS L/35 seasons for a go against  85% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Cincinnati to cover 

The current No. 2 seeds form the AFC, the Houston Texans take on a Eagles team off a big time win vs the LA Rams on the road last week. Nick Foles came off the bench for the defending champs and replaced Wentz, and looked good in the process. But Im betting he will have a hard time replicating that kind of effort here vs a very tough Texans D. It must be noted that Defending Super Bowl champions  as home favorites when coming off a SU underdog win, are just 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS from Game Fifteen out.

The  Texans if they can secure wins here in the last two weeks of the season, can get a bye, so they will be primed to play, and will not give the Eagles a free ride .

NFL Road teams (HOUSTON) - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/G committed) vs a team with 1.25 or less  TO/G forced after 8+ games, after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 29-9 ATS L/35 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Texans to cover 

The Dallas Cowboys, were smashed last week by a 23-0 count vs Indianapolis which is not a good omen here as they  are just 1-17 ATS L/18 as home favorites when coming off a SUATS loss. I know the Boyz are loved by the public, but because of that this line is slightly bloated giving us value with a young group that has in the recent past played very well against team like Dallas that can run the ball.  Note: TAMPA BAY is 6-0 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 or more  rushing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. I know the Bucs do not inspire bettors, but they have been competitive of late and  have only failed to cover 1 of their L/5 games. With that said, lets take the points here this Sunday with the visitors. 

NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TAMPA BAY) - after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, team with a losing record in the second half of the season are 45-15 ATS L/10 season for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Tampa Bay to cover 

Dolphins are a team that are extremely inconsistent and own a -79 scoring diff margin on the season and were smashed last week in a start to finish demolishing by the Vikings losing by more than 3 TDs. Note:The Dolphins are 0-18 ATS L/18 as a home favorite after a loss in which they never led and  are 0-18 ATS L/18  as a favorite coming off a road game where they gained no more than 15 first downs. Meanwhile, I know Jacksonville does not inspire bettors, because of their ugly 4-10 record, but their every bit as good as Miami and have a better D and overall have a 64 point positive diff over the Fins and can't be underestimated here as many of the players on the Jags sending a shakeup in the upcoming off season need to sharpen their numbers and stats in preparation for their proverbial  judgement day. Only once in their L/6 games have the Jags lost by more than 4 points and Im betting they stay in the range here today and get the cover.

MIAMI is 0-8 ATS  after allowing 375 or more total yards in 4 consecutive games and is 9-25 ATS  after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games.MIAMI is 47-69 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

Play on Jacksonville to cover 

The Vikings looked good last week in a big win , but I just dont believe you can trust QB Cousins-of the Vikings to be consistent  or to even have good back to back games. . Minnesota is also 0-12 ATS as a favorite in Last Road Games against below .500 competition. Meanwhile, Motown despite of a ugly 5-9 record, have only lost  by more than 7 points just once in their 6 games, and are more than capable of being competitive again here this Sunday.

The Lions are 6-0 ATS L/6, off a loss as a dog in which they had fewer than 10 incompletions which happened last week. 

Play on the Detroit Lions to cover 

The Saints came from behind for a win last week vs TB, to clinch their division title, and will now be in a letdown spot. With all the hard fought games that the Saints have won lately, and their overall output not looking as consistent as did earlier in the season, as scouting staffs start to figure out their offence, they don't look like viable favs here on the road in Carolina .  I know the Panthers may not inspire bettors but Ron Rivera's team that has out yarded 4 of their L/5 foes despite of  finding way to lose all 5 tilts. The Panthers are also 11-0 ATS L/11 covering by more than 15 ppg, as a dog off a road loss where they failed to cover. The Panthers are  also 8-0 ATS   as a dog after they made at least 5 third downs last game.  HC Ron Rivera is  8-1 ATS  during December in games when going against opponents coming off a SUATS win, going 8-1 SUATS in his career.

CAROLINA is 14-3 ATS L/17 in home games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 375 or more yards/game in the second half of the season. HC Payton is 3-11 ATS in road games after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games as the coach of NEW ORLEANS.

Play on the Carolina Panthers to cover 

This must be very humiliating for a NFL championship team  like the Philadelphia Eagles to be DD underdogs to a LA Rams team that despite of being explosive and respected by the public and pundits a like has still not won anything. Im betting the Eagles are pumped to prove their detractors wrong and to finally show us what made them champs last season, vs a team that already has a play off spot marked on the calendars and have little left to play for and just want to stay healthy .  With that said, it must be noted that defending Super Bowl champions are 3-0 ATS since 1980 as underdogs of more than 9 points and Im betting they will be 4-0 ATS when this final whistle blows here tonight.

Injury update: Wentz is a not a 100% go here this week and if he  does not play, the Eagles will go with Nick Foles, who led the Eagles to a Super Bowl victory last season. So either way this game remains a play on situation for the Eagles. 

NFLRoad teams (PHILADELPHIA) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in December game are 43-16 ATS L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover 

New England  enters this tilt against struggling Pittsburgh behind future HOF QB Tom Brady  off a loss vs the Dolphins last time out (34-33), as their bad luck vs them was extended thanks to a freak play that saw the Dolphins win on the last play of the game . The Pats are now  just 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS  when Brady plays the Fins in Miami .There is a silver lining however, here, as Brady is 25-2 SU overall away during the final month of the season,  and when going against a  below .600 team that does not include the Dolphins he  is a  perfect 17-0 SU.New England is also 23-5 SU off a loss since 2010, including 15-3 SUATS away. With Pittsburghs Big Ben Rothlisberger not completely 100% healthy and showing signs of his advanced age, and the beatings he has taken in his career the Steelers don't look like solid options here. 

Belichick is 7-0 ATS L/7 off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite of 6 or more as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.

NEW ENGLAND is 15-3 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons

NFL Road teams (NEW ENGLAND) - mistake-free team (1.25  or less TO/G committed) vs a team with 1.25  or less TO/G forced after 8+ games, after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 29-7 ATS L/35 seasons for a 81% conversion  rate for bettors. 

Play on the New England Patriots to cover 

San Francisco has struggled on the road this season but have been competitive at home lately , beating Denver last week, and prior to that pounding Oakland 34-3 and then losing a heart breaker to the up trending NY Giants 27-23. Two weeks ago they were annihilated  on the scoreboard 43-16 by the team their hosting today the Seahawks back in Seattle . Note: Seahawks were however outgunned by 127 yards in that above mentioned tilt so the score was not indicative of the play, and as a matter of fact the Seahawks have managed Ws of late despite of being out yarded in 3 straight tilts. So Pete Carrolls  Seabirds are performing optimally behind a Las Vegas style smoke and mirrors magic show and are not solid road favs here despite of the all the accolades their getting. With revenge on board I now expect the 49ers to make a game of this and get us the cover, vs a side that in my humble opinion is a  over rated public favorite. 

NFL Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a terrible team (25%) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season are 56-25 ATS L/35 seasons for a 69% long term conversion rate for bettors.

Play on SF 49ers to cover 

 The Cowboys are red hot right now and have won and covered 5 straight, but they are in an emotional letdown spot after a hard fought OT victory vs the defending Super Bowl Champion Eagles last time out. and susceptible to being flat in an unfriendly environment.  Thats not a good omen for the Boyz chances this week as  NFL teams coming off a SUATS OT victory are just  13-31-1 ATS the last four seasons, including 6-23 SUATS when  they're not the favorite. Furthermore, Indy QB Andrew Luck is a money QB and owns a  13-4 ATS career mark at home in games against foes with a better record,   The Colts are no pushovers and have won 6 of their L/7 and  deserve to be favoured in this tilt against Americas team , as they are   one of only three teams to rank in the Top 10 in both total offence and total defence. 

DALLAS is 14-30 ATS  L/44 in road games after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 game.

NFL Home favorites (INDIANAPOLIS) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 25-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Indianapolis Colts to cover 

The Tennessee Titans must win their final three games to have a chance at the AFC's final wild-card spot, starting Sunday on the road against the New York Giants. Needless to say the Titans will be aggressive and hell bent on staying alive here vs the Giants today. I know the Omen have been playing well and have won 2 straight, but against a desperate opponent  with the backs up against the wall Im betting they 're  in trouble today. 

NY GIANTS are 7-20 ATS in home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%). 

Injury update: NYG Odell Beckham Jr is downgraded to OUT Sunday vs Tennessee ( Quad ). 

NFLHome teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NY GIANTS) - in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 40 YPG of their opponents) after 8+ games, after outgaining opp by 100 or more total yards in their previous game are 8-24 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on the Tennessee Titans to cover 

The Texans were on a 9 game win streak heading into last week, and then lost . NFL teams that have won 9 in row in the past and  had their win streak abruptly end have failed to cover 5 of their L/6 followups.  I know  the Jets do not inspire bettors, but with QB Sam Darnold healthy again, and off a win last week, I expect a confident top tier effort from home team today. 

Jets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

exans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.Texans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Texans are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Texans are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games in Week 15.Texans are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Texans are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.Texans are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games in December.

HOUSTON is 9-21 ATS L/30in road games versus sub par defensive teams - allowing 350or more yards/game in the second half of the season.HOUSTON is 1-8 ATS ( in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons. 

The underdog has covered the L/4 meetings. NYJ are 3-1 SU/ATS L/4 at home in this series.

Play on the NY Jets to cover 

The Broncos at press time of this recommended investment option are 6-point favorites on the road against the San Francisco 49ers. The line was bet up  squarely from 3.5 on the opener, by public money, but after the rapid upswing in that movement ,sharp bettors came in with their money on the home underdog and rightly so based on line value alone. Despite of the Broncos current 3-0 run and the Niners dismal back to back blowout  losses at the hands of Seattle 43-16 last week and TB the week before 27-9  I still believe that the Niners can bounce back here at home or at least be very competitive. In the 49ers L/2 home efforts before the above mentioned road fiascos they beat up an up-trending Oakland side 34-3 and stayed very close vs a better than advertised NY Giants group 27-23. With that said , Im betting on the disrespected home dog, to stand tall here and get us the cover behind the arm of a improving QB Mullens who has  completed 64.5% of his passes for 1,147 yards, seven touchdowns, and  has also posted a 91.5 passer rating so far this season and must not be underestimated. I am also betting on a SF side that was ranked 10th vs the run before last Sundays tilt vs the Seahawks to rebound this week, and slow the Broncos key mode of moving the chains  running back Phillip Lindsay,

Broncos are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.Broncos are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games in Week 14.Broncos are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

49ers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.49ers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game

Play on the 49ers to cover 

Carolina has lost 4 straight games despite of winning the stats battles in the L/3 tilts and  are now .500 on the  season and desperately need a win here this week to have hopes of being in the NFL playoff picture.  This week I expect the Panthers get what they so desperately want, vs a Cleveland team that despite showing promise,  are being out gained  -63 YPG during the 2nd half of the season behind a 30th ranked defense .  note: HC Ron Rivera is 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS career mark during the final four games of the season when coming off a loss . Rivera is also 8-0 ATS  in road games after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games as the coach of CAROLINA. 

CLEVELAND is 4-15 ATS  versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more  yards/play over the last 3 seasons.CLEVELAND is 3-15 ATS  vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse over the last 3 seasons. CLEVELAND is 2-11 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons. 

NFL Home teams (CLEVELAND) - good rushing team (4.5 or more YPR) against a team with an average rushing defense (3.5 to 4.5 YPR), after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game are 5-23 ATS L/35 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Carolina to cover 

The KC Chiefs are explosive offensively but they have really struggled on D ranking 2nd to last last in the league . Meanwhile, the Baltimore Ravens own the best defense in the league and a viable enough offence to put a boat load full of points on the board vs this type of porous side. It must also be noted that the Ravens are strong  12-0  ATS L/12 as a underdog on a natural surface when they are playing a team with a better record than them and must not be underestimated in their ability to slow down the Chiefs here. Baltimore is also 11-1 ATS in road games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 375 or more yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992.  Chiefs are fun to watch but they have some short comings, and as public favs look week in this spot. Remember despite of  10-2 this season,  5 wins have come vs dregs like  Browns,, Bengals, , Raiders ,Cardinals and 49ers. 

Baltimore has won their L/3 visits to KC and get the nod here again.

Play on the Baltimore Ravens to cover 

 The public is all over the Saints here this week against the lowly Bucs. But it must be noted from a long term historical trends perspective this type of fav bet is not a very good one as NFL Road teams (NEW ORLEANS) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less last game , which happened last time  out, are just 6-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. It must also be noted that the Saints are just 3-4 in the stats battles in their L/7 and off a ugly loss to Dallas last week, Im betting we a have a public favourite that Im betting won't live up to expectations here on the road this week in TB a place where Drew Brees and company have lost their last two trips. 

HC Payton is 2-11 ATS in road games after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games as the coach of NEW ORLEANS. Bucks are 6-1 ATS L/7 as home dogs and 3-0 SU/ATS L/3.

Take the points with the TB Bucs 

Jacksonville is off a 6-0 win vs Indianapolis last time out at home. But whats obvious is that just can't move the chains regularly or put TDs on the board, averaging just 16.9 ppg on the season and with Cody Kessler under centre I doubt if things get much better vs the Titans. Also despite of the Jaguars exhibiting great D, at home this season, on the road they have  proven to have a gridiron split personality allowing 27+ ppg.  Meanwhile, the Titans are also off a win taking out the Jets 26-22 in come from behind fashion, which will have them exuding confidence here this Thursday night.  

The Jags are 1-4 ATS L/5 Thursdays when taking points.Thursday night NFL home teams have won 12 straight times. Titans are 3-0 SU/ATS L/3 at home in this series.

Note:The Jags are 0-12 SU/ATS as underdogs during the regular season when coming off a SU underdog win and facing a opposition coming off a victory.

Play on Tennessee to cover 

  Redskins enter this game have lost the stats battles in 4 straight games and enter this game with  backup  QB Colt McCoy   .  McCoy is  just 1-10 SU and 3-8 ATS in division games in his NFL career.. 

Last week the Eagles showed their metal with a come from behind win vs the Giants , and will now use the momentum of that win to get the job done here again this Monday. 

QUOTE: "This was a big game for us," Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz said. "Obviously in terms of the division standings and all that fun stuff, but really mentally to show the resilience that we did. To get down early like we did, then to battle back, just really builds a lot of confidence -- to come from behind and get it done I think will speak volumes about our confidence going forward." END QUOTE: 

Meanwhile, Eagles QB Carson Wentz is a very dependable  7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS as a favorite of 6 or more points and gets my support here as his team plays with sense of urgency. 

Washington has failed to cover 9 of their L/10 Monday nighters. 

Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover 

The Chargers are hot , as is evident by their 6-1 winning run and their QB Phillip Rivers is off a record setting game last time out. But now Im betting on regression to rear its ugly head, for Rivers, and the Chargers to finally meet their match. It must be noted that all but one of their wins this season have come against teams that currently have a losing record. The one exception was the victory over Seattle, which is barely over .500 at 6-5. 

The Steelers, own a 14-1 record against the Chargers at home and that run will continue here tonight. 


The Steelers 13-0 SU and 11-2 ATS as home favs off a loss against non-division opposition coming off a home contest. Roethlisberger is 11-2 SU and 10-2-1 ATS versus .500 or greater AFC West opponents coming off a win.

NFL Underdogs or pick (LA CHARGERS) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are just 7-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Pittsburgh Steelers to cover

Mahomes and the Chiefs have not played since taking part in a  back and forth , 54-51 loss to the Los Angeles Rams on Nov. 19. Mahomes now with a week off might have take some time to get this high octane offence back working at optimal levels. Also strictly from an eye test, Oakland looks to be gaining some confidence, and QB Carr has suddenly learned to take care of the ball much better and has not given up an interception in 6 games to go along with a a high percentage completion rate on mostly short passes. The kind of football the Raiders are playing  gives them high probability to  survive  what coming their wayand Im betting thats what they find a way to do here at home this week in what I project as cover performance. 

The explosive Chiefs have won 19 of their last 20 games against AFC West opponents with their only loss coming last year at Oakland. Could a repeat upset happen, probably not, but taking the 15 points here is a viable investment option. 

KANSAS CITY is 0-7 ATS L/7 after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games.KANSAS CITY is 2-10 ATS L/12  after gaining 6 or more yards/play in 4 consecutive games. 

Raiders HC Gruden is 19-8 ATS vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season in all games he has coached in his career. 

NFL team (OAKLAND) - after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games are 28-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Raiders to cover 

The Titans are off a ugly loss on Monday night football, to the Texans and now demoralized as their play off hopes start to fade. Now in an emotional letdown situation on short rest, the Titans are far from being solid  TD + favs against any team in this league including the lowly NY Jets. Note: The Titans are 1-6 ATS L/7 off a Monday nighter, and just 2-8 ATS L/10 in this series. 

TENNESSEE is 2-12 ATS in home games vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return.TENNESSEE is 2-12 ATS  in home games vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return.

NFL Home teams (TENNESSEE) - off a road loss, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%) are 19-54 ATS L/35 seasons for a 74% go against conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the NY Jets to cover 

Miami  losers of 4 of their L/5 have looked in-cohesive and inconsistent this season, taking part in some ugly affairs and choking in others at key junctures, and  have also come out  completely flat on other occasions. Meanwhile, Buffalo is up trending after two straight wins and must be respected here as underdogs vs a Fins team that just does not look confident right now.

MIAMI is 0-8 ATS L/8 in home games versus poor offensive teams - averaging 4.75 or less  yards/play in the second half of the season.The Dolphins are 0-17 ATS ( L/17 as a favorite coming off a road game where they gained no more than 15 first downs. Which happened last week at Indianapolis in a loss.

The Buffalo Bills are 15-2 ATS as road dogs of 3 or more points against opp coming off consecutive losses, including 7-0 ATS in division tilts. 

NFL Home teams (MIAMI) - off a road loss, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%) are just 19-54 ATS L/35 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Buffalo to cover 

Chicago's QB Mitchell Trubisky is downgraded to doubtful Sunday vs NY Giants ( Shoulder )which in my opinion gives the Giants enough edge on their own field to get us the cover. as Daniels starts instead This is the Bears 2nd straight road game and its never easy winning two straight games on the road in this league, even for a teams deemed hot like the Bears. Previous to last week the Giants had won two straight and than had the Eagles on the ropes  as they took a 19-3 lead. Then instead of using emerging super star RB Saquon Barkely to slow the game down, the Gemn did the opposite . hmmm and blew the game .  Anyway,  now Im betting the Gmen bounce back, behind the arm of a QB that in Eli Manning that has a history of top tier efforts at home late in the season, as is evident by a  12-3-1 ATS record in December at home when coming off a loss and 7-0 ATS against opponent like Chicago coming off consecutive wins. Look for his side kick Sqauon Barkley to help keep the option wide open for Manning in what could be a SU upset for the home dog, but more importantly a cover . 

CHICAGO is 2-11 ATS in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

Play on the NY Giants to cover 

Jacksonville despite of their 7 game losing streak, are still a team that must be respected, behind what must be considered a solid defence allowing an average of just 16.2 ppg on the season as hosts. They have lost their L/3 games by 4 points or less, and getting points is a viable option , vs a Indianapolis team that despite of a current 5 game win streak has lost 3 of their 5 road games this season. Look for Jags QB Kody Kessler who is starting in place of Bortles, to give his team a spark and a cover. 

Marrone is 6-0 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of JACKSONVILLE and s 6-0 ATS  vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game in the second half of the season. 

INDIANAPOLIS is 1-8 ATS  after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.

JACKSONVILLE is 4-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Jacksonville to cover 

 Texas enters this tilt vs Tennessee  having won 7 straight games following a 0-3 start.   The wins were not that impressive overall and most were against average to sub par average teams with a total combined record of 22-20 record  and they  won 4  of those games by 3 points or less .

Tonight Im betting Tennessee’s 9th ranked defense to go  Helmut to helmet  with Houston’s strong  D and make this a hard fought tilt. With  Tennessee's QB Marcus Mariota  expected to play the Titans are a solid side option , as he  is 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS in division games when his team is coming off a loss, including 6-0 SUATS the last six games. Note: NFL Road teams (TENNESSEE) - off a road loss, in November games are good long term bets against the spread going 179-117 ATS L/35 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

 HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS  after a win by 3 or less points over the last 3 seasons. 

The Titans are also 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS on Monday nights.

Take the point with Tennessee to cover 

 The Steelers and an emotional let down situation coming off a revengeful win vs Jacksonville last out .  With that in mind and the fact that he Steelers have  not been good bets vs AFC teams like Denver as is evident by  struggling in these confrontations  recording a  3-11 SU record  and a equally ugly  2-12 ATS mark as road favs L/39 seasons, including 0-9 ATS when favoured by more than 3 points.Meanwhile, the Broncos are up-trending  as they have taken the stats battles  in 4 of their L/5 and cashed in four of those tilts. Denver has also been cash in the bank at home as   home dog  cashing 9 of their L/10 vs above.500 sides.

Long term DENVER is 29-15 ATS L/44  in home games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season . Denver  is 6-2 SU L/8 at home this series. 

The Steelers are 0-10 ATS L/10 as a road favorite on natural surface  off a win.

Play on Denver to cover 

These long time rivals the New England Patriots and NY Jets  go head to head this Thanks giving weekend. The early public money is as expected all over the Pats.While sharp money goes down on the Jets. I know this is contrarian action, as many expect the Pats to be primed for redemption after suffering a DD loss last time , but  Im betting if the Pats get by a desperate Jets team that has lost 4 straight, it wont come by more than this offered line. The last two meetings here in NY have both been won by the Pats, but both were decided by TD or less. Both times the Pats were 9 to 10 point chalk, and both times the public smashed their money down on them and both times they lost, and now the three and out rule is in effect. Be brave, take the Jets as they make it their mission to get back their long lost respect.  

The Jets have historically been a good bet off a home defeat and than following up as the host team. NY JETS are 21-6 ATS  in home games off a home loss since 1992.

Play on the NY Jets to cover 

Both these teams have trouble scoring, and both have top tier defences ranked 2nd and 3rd in the league. To back a road favorite in my opinion, that team must have the ability to get the ball into the end zone consistently , something the Jags are not doing. I know Buffalo does not inspire bettors, but after scoring 41 points last time out before their bye and now on fresh legs the Bills are a better bet than most might care to believe. Especially taking on an emotionally drained side, that was off a must win situation  last week vs the Steelers and then blew it, by not showing up in the 2nd half after a 16-0 lead . Its interesting to note that the Jaguars are 0-6 ATS  L/6 as a favorite off a game as a dog are 0-6 ATS  off a game as a dog in which they had fewer than 10 incompletions which was the case last week in a hurtful 20-16 loss to the Steelers after taking a a DD lead. 

Play on Buffalo Bills to cover 

The 49ers are fresh and off a bye week, and before the break they loss a close one to the Giants 27-23 on Monday Night even though they out gained them by 374 to 277 yards. The Niners according to my power rankings also despite of a negative record are up trending, and are viable underdogs here vs a Tampa Bay team, that despite of moving the chains with regularity , are just 1-7 in their L/8 games with a 2-27 negative turnover ratio . The Bucs own an atrocious D, and can't hold onto the ball, and are fade material this Sunday.

TAMPA BAY is 1-12 ATS off 1 or more straight overs over the last 2 seasons. TAMPA BAY is 1-9 ATS after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored over the last 2 seasons.


NFL road dogs playing on natural surface vs a non-divisional opponent are 10-0 ATS off their bye week, covering by an average of 10.15 ppg and SF fits the bill this Sunday. 
he Fortyniners are 7-0 ATS L/7 after a home game in which a player had at least 6 receptions.
The Fortyniners are 6-0 ATS L/6 as a road dog facing an opponent that is averaging fewer than 25 rushes per game. The Buccaneers are 0-7 ATS L/ 7 at home of a loss. 

Play on the SF 49ers to cover

According to my power rankings and head to head systems analysis, the Rams matchup very well against the KC Chiefs and in a game that Im betting will see a lot of TDs, laying a FG is not asking to much and is actually a viable wagering option. Especially with this game moved to LA. It must be noted that when this tilt was scheduled to be played in Mexico City the Rams were 2.5 point chalk , so this line considering the new venue very much favors the Rams and their betting backers.

 
KANSAS CITY is 6-17 ATS L/23 in road games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/att.KANSAS CITY is 2-10 ATS L/12 after gaining 6 or more yards/play in 4 consecutive game.

NFL Road teams vs. the money line (KANSAS CITY) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a top-level team (75%) or more playing a team with a winning record are 4-22 L/10 seasons and 1-10 L/5 seasons and have lost 4 straight last 3 seasons, with the combined average loss coming by 9.3 ppg.

NFL Favorites (LA RAMS) - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games are 30-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road teams (KANSAS CITY) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less last game are 6-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the LA Rams to cover

The Bears are leading in the division, just ahead of the Vikings , which means this game is for first place. This  tilt  should feature play off intensity which will favour the more experienced big game team, which is the Minnesota Vikings. The Bears have had a fine season thus far, but this matchup is a step up in class. When the chips are down , Ill back the smash mouth Vikings getting points. Yes, da Bears  looked good last week, against the downtrodden Lions but in the past CHICAGO has been a bad bet in the followup going  0-8 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game. I personally believe everyone is getting a little bit ahead of themselves with backing Chicago as possible top tier team going forward ,and tonight I expect that when the final whistle blows that some pundits time to pause and rethink their positions. Hey folks Im not knocking the Bears, and  in the not so distant future, might actually ending up being as good as the headlines might indicate , However,  Im just saying there is value taking the under rated Vikings in this spot as dogs.  Note: Vikes HC Mike Zimmer is  13-1-1 ATS versus opponents coming off a double-digit win.

Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover 

 .

New Orleans is  nightmare for defensive co-orridnators to deal with, but Philadelphia coaching staff, are extremely capable as they have proven in the recent past .    The Saints despite of all the accolades they are getting are weak favs here and have been in the past when irrational exuberance has been prevalent as is evident by their  0-8 ATS L/8 record as a favorite of at least eight points . New Orleans recent top tier performances including last weeks domination against Cincinnati, 51-14 has everyone and his dog, singing the praises of Drew Bree's and company.  Last week the Saints accumulated a ungodly 509 of offense in their victory but in the past the Saints have been a bad bet in the followup going just  0-7 ATS L/7 coming off a game as a road favorite where they had at least 400 yards of total offense  . The Saints also dominated time of possession  (39:46) but once again have failed in their followup going 0-7 ATS  L/7 coming off a game as a road chalk when they had at least 32 minutes time of possession. Also it must be noted that Defending Super Bowl Champions like the Eagles  are 13-1 ATS as road dogs versus .825 + opposition  including 7-0 SUATS since 2000.

PHILADELPHIA is 8-0 ATS  versus good rushing defenses - allowing 90 roles rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons.PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 ATS  vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. over the last 2 seasons

 NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PHILADELPHIA) - good passing team - with a completion pct of 60% or better, after gaining 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games are 25-7 ATS L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover 

 Carolina got embarrassed last Thursday in a 52-21 loss at Pittsburgh and will be primed for bounce back win here vs slumping Lions  team that is on a current 3-game SUATS losing streak. Believe me when I say pros do not like to be embarrassed, especially the Panthers..With that said, Im betting on Carolina a side that is 12-1 SU and 13-0 ATS in road games when coming off a double-digit loss and taking on a sub .500 opponent to be ready to deliver themselves redemption in. a big way here today. The Panthers are also bankroll fattening 8-1 ATS in tilts after giving up 40 or more points .

HC Rivera is 22-3 ATS off a road loss as the coach of CAROLINA.

Detroit is an nasty 0-12 ATS as a underdog on artificial turf when they are off a road loss by more than a TD and they are facing a team that has committed an average of less than 1.5 turnovers per game season-to-date. DETROIT is 2-15 ATS L/17 against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game in the second half of the season.

Play on the Carolina Panthers to cover 

Last week, the Tennessee Titans ended their seven-game losing streak against Tom Brady with a surprising and  convincing 34-10 victory over the New England Patriots. On Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, the Titans will not be so lucky this week ( pardon the pun) vs another top tier  quarterback when they face the Colts. The Titans are 0-9 all time against Andrew Luck who was key in a win vs the Jags last week. 

TENNESSEE is 1-9 ATS in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 and is  1-9 ATS in road games after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. 

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TENNESSEE) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning record on the season are 9-33 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Indianapolis to cover 

The Jaguars in a must win situation today have really struggled of late, but they actually matchup well vs the Pittsburgh Steelers.The Steelers have won five consecutive games while the Jaguars have lost five in a row.I know both teams are operating at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum, but the Jags desperation and the type of football Im confident the Jags can play when cornered will challenge the Steelers this Sunday. I expect the Jaguars  No. 2 overall defense and No. 1 ranked  pass D  to be the difference maker in what will be a hard fought game. 

 Steelers are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

NFL team (JACKSONVILLE) - a poor offensive team (14-18 PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG), after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 30-8 ATS L/10 seasons  for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Jacksonville Jaguars to cover 

The Raiders looked horrendous last week in their loss,  34-3 vs the 49ers last week and  have lost four in a row and are tied with the New York Giants for the worst record in the NFL at 1-7. Meanwhile, the Chargers won last week, but looked a little pooched, and won 25-17 vs Seattle last week. Their numbers however, were not overwhelming. It must be noted that the chargers are just  0-10 ATS  as a favorite of more than three points coming off a game as a dog where they allowed at least 22 first downs  , and 0-7 ATS L/7 as a favorite off a game as a underdog when they had less than 28 minutes time of possession, which was the case last week.  The Raiders lost on the road to the Chargers earlier this season 26-10 but will be a much tougher out this time around at home. NFL team (OAKLAND) - revenging a road loss against opponent, off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite are 42-17 ATS L/35 seasons for a long erm 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Note: NFL  home Teams which are more than 7 point  dogs are actually long term good bets going   192-162-4 ATS . I know its hard to take the Raiders considering their form, but if you can just plug your nose and pull the trigger on this stinker, you can feel confident that we have an edge on the books. 

Play on the Oakland Raiders 

Falcons are playing better ball of late , but are just  0-8 ATS in its last eight games against AFC opposition. Also you can not escape the fact that the Browns have a game changing QB at the helm of their offence and looks to be getting more comfortable each time out.   Baker Mayfield. The No. 1 draft pick has started three games and has thrown for 1,768 yards and 10 touchdowns with seven interceptions. He's been sacked 22 times but rushed for 91 yards when scrambling. In last week's loss to Kansas City, Mayfield threw for 297 yards and two touchdowns. Mayfield helps his team get us the cover here. ATLANTA is 11-32 ATS  after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games .

Cleveland Browns to cover 

The Bengals are one of the most under rated teams in the NFL, and despite of the Saints getting all the accolades could easily be in a letdown spot after gruelling  back to back games  and wins against the Minnesota Vikings and the LA Rams and in a look ahead situation to the Eagles who are next on the agenda. Bengals are 8-1-1 SU and 10-0 ATS as home underdogs against NFC opponents and look like a viable bet here today. 

NEW ORLEANS is 8-20 ATS L/28 against AFC North division opponents.Cincinnati has covered 3 straight at home in this series and get the nod again taking points. 

The Bengals are 9-0-1 ATS L/10 at home off a win in which they were outgained by their opponent. The Bengals are 6-0 ATS L/6 when they are off three consecutive games with a positive DPA.

NFL Home teams vs. the money line (CINCINNATI) - mistake-free team (1.25 roles TO/game committed) against a team with 1.25  or less TO/game forced, after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better are 58-9 L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. 

The Titans are a methodical team, that is capable of keeping this score close enough to cover the number here vs Tom Brady and company. No, really , you might be laughing right about now, but the Titans have the better D, by 49 ypg, and must not be underestimated as TD underdog at home. The Titans have only been non competitive in one of their games this season, a 21-0 shutout vs Baltimore, but the wins and even the losses have all been 3 points or less including a impressive win vs the defending Super Champs the Philadelphia Eagles. It hard to bet against the Pats, but this is actually a good spot for the Titans. Note: The Titans are 7-0 ATS L/7 when they are at home between two road games. 

Play on Tennessee to cover 

The Rams fell behind last week vs Packers but showed us all  what they were made of by coming back and winning that game and will now be primed to pull an upset of their own, against what Im betting will be a New Orleans side, in a letdown spot after getting revenge on the Vikings for last years playoff elimination. Despite of  their victory last week they were out yarded 423-260 and looked pooched at some points during that game. From a long term betting perspective  NFL sides that won their L/game by more than a TD l  but were out gained by at least 115 yards are just 50-76-1 ATS for a go against 60% conversion rate for bettors.Until proven wrong Im betting that New Orleans is a little over rated and the Rams a team that must be considered a Super Bowl contender are a great value play taking points. 

NEW ORLEANS is 19-35 ATS in home games after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992

 Note:8-0 NFL teams  like the Rams in Game Nine of the season are 17-2 SU since 1980,  with none of them getting underdog lines. 

Play on the LA Rams to cover 

The Jets enter this game with revenge on board for a  20-12  loss to the Dolphins in week 2 as a three-point home dog. But  NY lately has been very good to bettors in revenge mode as   they cashed 7 straight ATS on a natural surface when they are playing a divisional opponent that they lost to earlier in the season. To put it bluntly , I also don't trust the Fins as home favs against 90% of the teams in this league, and the way their defence is playing I feel they are fade material in this spot. Note: MIAMI is 2-10 ATS  after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons and is 7-24 ATS L/31 after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games.The Jets have covered 16 of their L/21 visits to South Florida and get the nod again.

Dolphins are  also a bankroll dumping 0-15 ATS  as a home favorite off a loss when their opponent is playing their second straight road game. The Dolphins are 0-16 ATS L/15 seasons   as a home favorite coming off a game where they failed to cover by at least seven points.

Play on the NY Jets to cover 

The Steelers and Ravens have been going in opposite directions since they met Sept. 30 at Heinz Field. The Ravens beat the Steelers 26-14 and asserted themselves as early favorites to win the AFC North.

The Steelers started slowly but they have really picked things up lately, and have won and covered three straight games and lookalike strong underdogs here this Sunday vs a Baltimore team that does not look as stout as they did earlier this season . With the Steelers in revenge mode for the loss they suffered to the Ravens when they played earlier this season, you can bet they will have their engines revel and ready to return the favour here today. Look for the Steelers to make the Baltimore offense one dimensional as they control a running attack that is ranked 24th in the NFL with 96.6 yards per game. On the flip side I expect Big Ben Rothlisberger to take some queues from QB Cam Newton of Carolina who completed 21 of 29 passes for 219 yards with two touchdowns last week in a 36-21 beatdown of the Ravens which Im betting offered up some answers about what could be a regressing secondary. 

The Steelers are 7-0 ATS L/7 as a road dog when they are off three consecutive wins where they coveredThe Steelers are 6-0 ATS L/6 on the road when they are playing a team they lost to as a favorite earlier in the season.The Ravens are 0-9-1 ATS as a home favorite after a game as a road favorite in which they had at least two turnovers. 

NFLeams where the line is +3 to -3 (BALTIMORE) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, in conference games. are 14-40 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Pitt Steelers to cover

I was kind of surprised to see the Vikings as a home underdog. I truly believe no matter what Drew Bree's is doing of late, I just don't see the Saints being a pickem on the road from a matchup perspective vs a Minnesota team that  in my opinion has the superior talent and cohesiveness. Winning two games in a row on the road like New Orleans will attempt to do is a difficult thing, and if it were not for the huge horse shoe they have wedged up their proverbial yahoos, they might of lost last week, as the Ravens missed the opportunity to take a game to OT,  when their usually reliable stud kicker missed an extra point at the end of the game. Wow. Any how, here we are , and the lines makers have decided while factoring in the revenge play off angle that the Saints should be a favorite. I disagree and will take a contrarian stance and back the home side to come out of this with a win and cover. The both times the Viking splayed the Saints last year they were able to expose their defensive weaknesses' and don't be surprised if they do it again. NEW ORLEANS is 8-20 ATS off an extremely close road win by 3 points or less since 1992.MINNESOTA is 11-3 ATS  in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover 

Super star QB Aaron Rogers and the Green Bay offense have the guns to score with the Rams making them viable underdogs this spot vs what is arguably an explosive team the LA Rams. 

GREEN BAY is 16-6 ATS  in road games after playing on Monday night football since 1992 and 39-23 ATS against NFC West division opponents since 1992. LA RAMS are 4-17 SU and 5-15-1 ATS the last 21 vs NFC North teams.

NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (GREEN BAY) - good passing team - with a completion pct of 60% or better, after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 3 straight games are 36-15 L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Green Bay Packers to cover

Bill Carrol has his Seattle Seahawks playing much better than the pundits expected, thanks to a rejuvenated looking defence. On oFfence QB Wilson is also  a top tier money maker for his backers going 11-1-1 ATS in his NFL career taking points against opp coming off consecutive victories like the Lions are.

DETROIT is 4-13 ATS off a double digit road win which was the case a DD victory vs the Miami Dolphins.Detroit is  also 0-13-1 ATS with a .500 or better record when coming off a double-digit win and taking on  an opponent coming off a victory. 

NFL Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DETROIT) - in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 40 YPG of their opponents), after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game are 17-43 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Seattle Seahawks to cover 

The defending Super Bowl champions are off a loss and own a 3-4 record on the season but are a good bet to bounce back here this week ,  as defending Super bowl Champs are  100-50 SU and 81-65-4 ATS since 1980 off a SU loss as a favorite. Needless to say the Eagles have to now put the pedal to the metal and right their ship quickly , and Im expecting to do so vs a team that is struggling even more then them the Jacksonville Jaguars who have lost three straight.With RB Leonard Fournette (hamstring) likely to miss another game, Im betting QB Bortles won't have the support he needs to be competitive this week on this international stage in London ,England. 

JACKSONVILLE is 0-6 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse over the last 3 seasons which happened in their 20-7 loss vs the Texans last week.The Jaguars are  also 0-11 /SU ATS when the line is within a touch down of pick and they are off a game as a chalk in which they had less than 280 passing yards and at least two turnovers with he average margin of defeat coming by two TDs.

Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover 

The 1-5  New York Giants enter this Monday night game reeling  have lost three games in a row, giving up more than 30 points in all three and offer up an opportunity for the Falcons to notch their second win in a row . During the Gmens  three-game losing streak, Giants quarterback Eli Manning has as many interceptions as touchdown passes, recording three of each. He has been sacked 20 times this season. Meanwhile, Atlanta QB Ryan is picking up the pace of late, as is evident by  his 354 passing yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions against Tampa Bay, which has increased his total to 12 touchdown passes with no picks over the past four games. He must be licking his chops anticipation of facing a team that has only 7 sacks on the season ranking last in the league. Look for Ryan and star Wide Receiver Julio Jones to hookup for mucho yards and TDs this week on their way to a what Im betting will be a convincing win and  cover . 

NY GIANTS are 3-11 ATS in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

The Giants are 0-9 /SU ATS failing to cover by an average of more than 10 ppg as a non-divisional dog on Monday night.

NFL Road teams vs. the money line (NY GIANTS) - off a home blowout loss by 21 points or more against opponent off a home win are 5-51 SU L/35 seasons with a average point differential of 9.9 ppg clicking in on the scoreboard.

Play on the Atlanta Falcons to cover 

 This is a long time rivalry that has seem the 49ers cash 5 straight times. I know the Rams are the better overall team, but Im expecting this to be a lot closer than the lines makers estimate according to my own head to head power ranking stats. It must be noted that perfect 6-0 NFL chalk like the LA Rams  are 1-7 ATS in Game Seven of the season over the last nine campaigns.

The Rams are 0-8 ATS  off a game as a favorite in which they had at least 3 more penalties than their season-to-date average which happened last week.

LA RAMS is 1-9 ATS L/10 in road games after gaining 200 or more rushing yards last game .

The Rams are 0-6 ATS  on the road facing an opponent that is off two con-secutive losses like SF. 

Play on the SF 49ers to cover 

New Orleans explosive offence will Im betting not be so explosive this week against a staunch Baltimore D off a shutout last time out vs the Tennessee Titans by a 21-0 count. In fact the Ravens D has  allowed a total of 40 points in their L/4 games (10 ppg). Ravens are 5-1 SU/ATS L/5 meetings.

NEW ORLEANS is 7-20 ATS L/27 against AFC North division opponents.NEW ORLEANS is 4-15 ATS  in road games after scoring 25 points or more in 3 straight games since 1992. HC Payton Payton is 3-12 ATS  in road games after scoring 25 points or more in 3 straight games and is 2-9 ATS  in road games after having won 4 out of their last 5 games. 

NFL Home teams vs. the money line (BALTIMORE) - with a good scoring defense - allowing 17 or less points/game, after allowing 17 points or less in 4 straight games are 24-1 SU with the average point differential of 9.4 ppg clicking in on the scoreboard. 

NFL Road underdogs or pick (NEW ORLEANS) - after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread, in the first half of the season are 8-30 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on the Baltimore Ravens to cover 

The much improved Chicago Bears go against a New England Pats team that could find themselves in an emotional letdown spot after a behemoth back forth battle  with the KC Chiefs last Sunday night that saw them win on a late FG 43-40.

I know Tom Brady and company are explosive offensively but the Bears have held opponents to 19.2 ppg this season and must be respected as home dogs in their current form. I know the Bears last time out,  but it must be noted that Chicago is  11-2 ATS at home against AFC East opposition  coming off a victory, including 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS when the Bears are coming off a loss. 

Today Im betting the difference maker will come via the Bears ground attack that averaged 4.4 ypc vs a shaky Pats D, that is allowing 4.5 ypc. 

CHICAGO is 9-1 ATS as a home underdog over the last 3 seasons.CHICAGO is 6-0 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

NFL Underdogs or pick (CHICAGO) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 42-17 ATS L/10 seasons for a 75% for conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Chicago Bears to cover 

The Panthers are off a dismal game last time out vs the Redskins, but they have shown a lot of inconsistencies over the last couple of seasons despite of being a talented group, and now Im betting they rebound. It must be noted Carolina is a perfect  10-0 ATS since Ron Rivera became their head coach in 2011 as a dog off a SU and ATS loss as a visitor, covering by an average of 16  ppg and 21-3 ATS overall off a road loss. Also in that last game, they got away from their strength which is the run game.  But the Panthers have proven  resilient after those types of off efforts going a bankroll expanding 15-0 ATS on a natural surface off away loss when  their ground attack gained less  than 185 yards and they are averaging more than 4.35 yards per rush season-to-date. From. A league wide data base NFL Underdogs or pick (CAROLINA) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 36-12 ATS in their followup rebound since 1983.

Meanwhile, the Eagles despite of winning and playing better of late, are a team that has shown a propensity to fail against teams like Carolina who are struggling defensively at least from a ATS perspective, as they 0-8 ATS  versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 6 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Carolina to cover 

The Dolphins, who are 4-2 and are tied with the New England Patriots for the top spot in the AFC East, will be hosting a Lions defense that has given up an average of 27.4 points per game, which ranks 25th in the NFL. Which in my humble betting opinion does not make the Lions very reliable road favs in this spot according to statistical algorithms. The key Defensive lapses have come against opposition ground attacks, as the Lions rank 30th against the run, giving up 145.8 yards per game and 5.3 yards per carry. This Im betting favours Fins running backs Frank Gore and Kenyan Drake who are proving them selves viable cogs in thisDolphin offensive scheme. I know super millionaire QB Matt Stafford is a t the helm of a offence that scores bunches, but Miami is efficient  in the red zone and has stopped six of 11 third- or fourth-and-1 runs and could easily stop the Lions on key situations as they game progresses and making them a strong choice getting points as home dogs.

MIAMI is 6-0 ATS after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons.DETROIT is 9-26 ATS  as a road favorite of 7 points or less since 1992.

.Note:The Dolphins are 11-0 ATS SU on a natural surface when they are off a FG-plus win in which they threw at least one interception and they are facing a team that has thrown the ball on 56%-plus of their plays season-to-date.

Play on Miami Dolphins to cover 

Wembley Stadium - London, England

Hate to be completely simplistic with my approach to this game, but what we have here is a team in the Chargers currently hitting on all cylinders and off three straight wins and other team the Titans on a two game losing streak, behind a offence that was shutout last week, and that has put 9, 12 points on the board in 2 of their previous three games. The Titans QB Mariota who had shown so much promise in the past has slowly begun to fizzle behind HC  Vrabels conservative  methodical system, and looks at times disinterested and just going through the motions. Thats not a good mind set to be in when going against an explosive up trending team like the Chargers. 

LA CHARGERS is 29-4 ATS against AFC South division opponents since 1992.TENNESSEE is 8-22 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1992.

TENNESSEE is 15-35 ATS L/50 vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game

Tennessee is 0-15 ATS L/15  vs a side like the Chargers that has won each of their last two games by at least six points and covered them both. San Diego is 16-0 ATS L/16  on natural surface vs a non-divisional opponent like the Titans that has averaged more than one turnover per game and less than 70% completions and had suffered a positive takeaway margin in each of their last two games.

Play on San Diego Chargers to cover 

The Jets despite of notching a win last week, vs a sleepy looking Denver team were not particularly efficient and still had two turnovers, which is not a good omen for them this week vs top tier QB  Andrew Luck  and Colts. It must be noted that NFL teams that had fewer than six wins the previous season are 0-18 ATS at home when they are off a home win in which they committed two-plus turnovers and have lost 15 of the 18 games SU. Meanwhile, the Colts are off having their butts kicked in a Thursday night clash last week in prime time, and have shown a propensity to bounce back well with Luck at the helm of the offence, as is evident by  Indys record when coming off a SUATS loss, recording a  22-4 SU  mark along with a bankroll expanding  21-5 ATS  record in his NFL career – including 13-0 SU and 12-1 ATS against below .500 opposition and a perfect  7-0 ATS when coming off a non-division double- digit loss as was the case vs the Indianapolis and  is also 12-1 ATS vs a non-divisional opponent when they are off a loss by more than a TD in which their opponent had more third down conversions than punts. With that said, expect Luck and company to cash this week vs a Jets side that is 0-4 ATS L/4 off a SU/ATS win. 

NFL Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NY JETS) - in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 40 YPG of their opponents), after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game are 19-47 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Atlanta enters this game banged up and displaying a atrocious D that is allowing just under 400  yards a game. Should they really be a FG favorite even here at home in their current state, Im saying maybe based on perceptions and respect from the recent past successes. However, based on tangible evidence and their current form, I definitely say their fade material vs a Tampa Bay team that must not be underestimated in their ability to upset them. I know TB  is coming off two straight losses, including an embarrassing 48-10 loss at Chicago Sept. 30. But pros don't like to be embarrassed and with a week of rest will be hell bent on getting redemption. TB has also  shown a propensity to bounce back, on the road after a bye and are 5-1 ATS with rest. 

ATLANTA is 8-20 ATS L/28 in home games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/att. ATLANTA is 0-6 ATS  after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.

NFL Home teams vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games are 10-27 SU for a go against SU conversion rate of 73% for bettors.

NFL team (TAMPA BAY) - after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games are 34-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Tampa Bay to cover 

Wembley Stadium - London, England

The Seahawks are showing some signs of life after many began to write them off earlier this season as they have won 2 of their L/3 games and played a top tier LA Rams team tough last week losing a 33-31 battle but covering as 7 point dogs. Meanwhile, Oakland is showing very little  life and have lost 4 of their first 5 games  thanks mostly to a defense that is allowing 29.8 ppg and an offense that has scored more than 20 points once this season. Look for Seattle a team that averages 23.2 ppg to do some damage this week and to get us a cover.

OAKLAND is 1-8 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 2 seasons.  

NFL Favorites vs. the money line (SEATTLE) - team with a turnover diff. of +0.75/game or better against a team with a diff of -0.75/game or worse, after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 38-3 L/10 seasons for a SU 93% conversion rate for bettors. with the average victory coming by 9.6 ppg. 

Play on Seattle to cover 

The Eagles are experiencing a Super Bowl hangover and are just 2-3 on the season, despite of being competitive in all 5 games. They have also failed to cover 4 straight for their backers, but must be respected here tonight as they will be very primed to perform at an optimal  level after 2 straight losses. Meanwhile, the GMen have played well above their heads, so far , but are still just 1-4 SU and after their heartbreaking 33-31 loss last week in Carolina thanks to a nearly impossible 62 yard walk off FG. Im now betting the Giants will now be in an enormous letdown situation on short rest, which favours a hungry superior side. 

NFL Road favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - after 2 or more consecutive losses, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season are 35-11 ATS L/35 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

NFL team vs the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a terrible team (25% or less ) are 31-4 SU for a 89% conversion rate over the 10 seasons with the average margin of victory coming by 12.3 ppg. 

Play on Philadelphia to cover 

The Vikings visit the  City of Brotherly Love primed and pumped up to avenge a embarrassing playoff loss  by a ugly 38-7  deficit in last years play offs.Minnesota is FG pup in this tilt after looking like a viable opponent  after  a  hard fought 38-31 loss on the road in LA last Thursday night. In the past the Vikings have been good bets in this situation, as they are  12-0 ATS L/12  as a dog of less than a TD coming off a road loss. Also. HC Zimmer in non-division games when coming off a loss, is 13-1-1 ATS in his last 15 chances and has cashed in 4 of his l/5 coming off a Thursday nighter. Meanwhile the Eagles are  just  0-6 ATS L/6 as a favorite of more than two points and did not look all that good in a loss last week to Tennessee in OT by a 26-23 count.

REVENGE . REVENGE. 

Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover 

San Francisco has been  made more than a 3 point  favorite here because of their perceived superiority vs a 0-4 Arizona  team that is currently on the shit list for public bettors. However, laying points with SF is not a good bet when they are at home as is evident by a  0-11-2 ATS  as a home favorite since the 2012 season. Neither team inspires bettors, but getting points with a Arizona team that is getting better with former UCLA gunslinger Josh Rosen at the helm is a viable wagering opportunity. Plus watching SF blow a 14 point last week, vs the Chargers and eventually losing 29-27 is disheartening , and a bd omen for their chances today to cover, as  the 49'ers are 0-10 ATS playing on a natural surface after a loss in which they scored at least the first fourteen points of the game. It must also be noted that Arizona has lost 2 straight at home but the good news here is that the franchise is  7-1 ATS L/8 as a dog of 3 or more points when coming off consecutive home losses. Meanwhile, the  Niners are just 2-13 ATS at home following consecutive away losses. Im going against. the weak favorite this week and taking the ugly dog to cover. 

Arizona to cover 

The Giants are one of these teams that continue to surprise many when they look down and out. This is not a good Giants team, but QB  Eli Manning is   32-17-3 ATS career mark in games during October – including 16-6-2 ATS away and seems to play his best football at this time of the season. I know expected future star RB Barkley only had 44  yards pastime out, but the NY GIANTS are long term good bet off a bad rushing performance cashing  26 of their L/38  ATS in road games after gaining 75 or less rushing yards.The Giants' offense has plenty of playmakers to challenge the Panthers' defense.

Veteran quarterback Eli Manning has passed for 1,055 yards and four touchdowns with one interception, wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. has 31 catches for 331 yards already, and rookie running back Saquon Barkley has rushed for 260 yards on 56 carries and three touchdowns.

Barkley has accumulated the most yards from scrimmage by a rookie so far this season with 453. The No. 2 pick in the 2018 draft is the fifth player in NFL history with 100 or more yards from scrimmage in his first four career games.

NFL home favorites like Carolina  are 0-22 ATS on natural surface off a victory as a home favorite of 13 points or less when they are going against  a team that has averaged less than five rushing first downs per game and more than 3.5 yards per rush season-to-date.

Play on the NY Giants to cover 

Last week Buffalo looked horrendous in a 22-0 shutout loss to the Packers. But it must be noted that the Bills are 6-1 SU in games after having being shutout. From a league wide data base NFL teams coming off being blanked  who were in the playoffs the previous season are good bets as home dogs in their followup  going 8-1-1 ATS since 1990 when taking 3 points or more. Truth is Buffalo is not that bad, and Tennessee is not that good despite of what the pundits might think after upsetting the Super Bowl Champs last week 26-23. Note:Away teams are just 13-41 SU and 15-39 ATS since 1992 after upsetting the defending Super bowl Champion. Im betting on an emotional letdown situation effecting the Titans this weak, and for redemption and embarrassment to be the catalyst for a Buffalo cover.

TENNESSEE is 0-8 ATS in road games after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Buffalo to cover 

Talk about a revenge scenario. Well thats what we have tonight as the New England Pats host the Indianapolis Pats. The Colts were the team that essentially were the ones who reported Pats super star QB Tom Brady to the league for deflated balls, which supposedly gave him an advantage. Known as Deflategate it has been a sore spot for the Pats and their fans for a while, and Im betting some pay back will be at hand tonight no matter what Brady and Belichick say to the media. The Pats started slowly this season, but after watching them destroy of the undefeated Dolphins last week 38-7 Im betting on them to continue to explode, even if the often injured TE Gronkowski does not play because of a pulled hamstring.  Yes, the Pats might have seemed susceptible early on this season, thanks to a ugly rush stopping acumen, but a Colts teams ranked  29th in rushing won be a team that can take advantage of any perceived weaknesses.

The Colts' best receiver, T.Y. Hilton, is unlikely to play which also puts the Colts at a disadvantage. Indianapolis has very few other  offensive weapons and their  defense is shoddy to say the least and Im betting Brady can look at and go up and down the field all day long and make them pay big time with properly inflated balls.

Brady is 5-0 against Luck.

Patriots have won 9 of their L/12 on Thursday night    and are a profitable 20-8-2 ATS L30  as Home favorites and get the nod again tonight.

NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 2 seasons. NEW ENGLAND is 13-2 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 350 or more  yards/game over the last 3 seasons. NEW ENGLAND is 10-0 ATS L/10  off 2 or more consecutive unders. NEW ENGLAND is 11-1 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. 

NFL Road teams (INDIANAPOLIS) - poor rushing team (70-95 RY/game) against a team with an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/game), after being outrushed by 75 or more yards in 2 straight games are 17-45 L/35 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate. for bettors on the blind.

Play on New England to cover 

Former Texas Tech gun slinger Mohomes has KC playing all out Wild West run and shoot football. But what is a little concerning is KCs defence, which is allowing an average of 30.7 ppg.on 474 mpg for the leagues worst D. Im betting on Denvers 10th ranked offence doing some damage here today, and possibly puling off the upset. 

Denver QB Case Keenum is 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in his NFL career against opposition coming off  three straight wins like KC. Night Football teams who are 3-0   as favorites of -7 points or less are 1-5 ATS  L/6 overall. 

NFL- Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS CITY) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 19-47 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Denver Broncos to cover 

Despite of the Steelers notching their first win of the season last time out  this past Monday, their were still some issues that stood out. The Steelers took a big lead vs TB in that Monday night game but did not score in the 2nd half, and still allowed 27 points as they now rank 29thin in the league in defence. With the Ravens averaging  32.3 points per game the Steelers will once again be tested and probably trampled on by a revenge minded Ravens group that lost 39-38 in last years blockbuster battle covering as 5 point dogs. I know the Ravens choked against Cincinnati last time out, but they will be wide awake for this tilt and ready to rock'n'roll. 

Another key difference maker in what will be a physical game  will come with discipline something,  Pittsburgh has struggled with this season as they have been penalized for an average of 120 yards per game,  which is easily the worst in the league.

The Ravens are  5-0 ATS as division dogs of more than 3 points. and  the Steelers are 1-7 ATS home after a Monday-nighter when taking on .500 or greater opponents. Also NFL Sunday night home chalk in division games against opposition coming off a victory, are just  8-18-2 SU and 5-22-1 ATS versus .600 or greater opposition .Home faves up to +7 are in a 1-14 ATS L/15 in Week 4 coming off their first victory of the season.

Play on the Ravens to cover 

When I saw that the Cardinals were being made underdogs at home , I understood why, but to a down trending team like Seattle, this underdog line favouring the home team becomes a value based option. I know Arizona has struggled to score, and has been shutout once this season, and only scored 14 ppg in their other two, but their offence despite of being conservative in nature shows some promise going forward. behind a true gun slinger in for UCLA star QB Josh Rosen who is expected to start this week. The pieces are being built for him to take off, despite of the cement shackles the coordinators are putting on him. With that said, I expect the Cards to make life tough on the Seahawks like they did on the Bears last week, and get us a cover. Note:1-2 chalk in Game Three off a victory are just 12-32 ATS and sides like Arizona  that have scored no more than 16 combined points in their past two games  are 76-31-1 ATS in the follow up. Yes, I know the Seahawks D, looked good last week in a win, but it also must be noted that the Seahawks are 0-7 ATS  L/7  after a home game where they allowed less than 14 points.

ARIZONA is 23-9 ATS in home games off a home loss.Carroll is 2-12 ATS in road games in September games as the coach of SEATTLE. 

Play on Arizona to cover 

The Dolphins enter this game at 3-0 and are being made underdogs to the 1-2 New England Patriots. The lines makers are obviously not buying into their current record , and still feel the the Pats are most probably ready to take out their frustrations this week vs a team that is very over rated and also a little lucky to be undefeated so far. Considering the Bill Belichick and company are also in a revenge mode for a 27-20 loss at Miami in December of last year this line looks cheaper by the minute. It must be noted that the Pats are  11-1 ATSat home when playing with single-revenge. New England future hall of fame QB Tom Brady is also a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS when coming of consecutive losses in division games.

New England is 11-0 ATS L/11 when hosting a team that is off three consecutive wins.NEW ENGLAND is 8-0 ATS after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (MIAMI) - after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread, in the first half of the season are 7-27 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on the New England Pats to cover 

Pittsburgh at 0-2 does not currently look like a power house team thanks in part to a defence that  looks highly inconsistent.What Im trying to say is that the Steelers look to be a weaker pick than many might anticipate here this Monday night. I'm betting on QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (back to back 400 yard games) and a talented collection of playmakers that include DeSean Jackson, Mike Evans, O.J. Howard and Chris Godwin to do some damage here tonight on their way to a cover. QUOTE:"I respect what they've done. I'm not so sure I'm surprised," Steelers coach Mike Tomlin said of Tampa Bay's emergence with wins against the New Orleans Saints and the reigning Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles. END QUOTE:

Tomlin is 6-16 ATS in road games in September games as the coach of PITTSBURGH.Buccaneers are 8-0 ATS as Monday Night home dogs when coming off non-divisional tilt. 

It  must also be noted that TB should not be underestimated here no matter how desperate the Steelers are as NFL teams like Tampa Bay  coming off consecutive straight up underdog wins, are 12-1 SU and a perfect 5-0 ATS as dogs.

Play on the Tampa Bay Bucs to cover 

Seattle has been down graded on my power rankings to lows not seen in years. Wow how the mighty have fallen. From a charts perspective Im betting the Cowboys have the edge , yes even here on the road , and most sharps I know agree with my assessments and you will see this via  line movement as well. 

DALLAS is 11-2 ATS  after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game over the last 3 seasons. 

NFL Home teams vs. the money line (SEATTLE) - off 2 consecutive road losses, in the first month of the season are 18-44 SU L/35 seasons. 

NFL Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SEATTLE) - off a road loss, in September games are 63-105 ATS L/35 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Dallas Cowboys to cover 

The Rams were dominant last week in a 34-0 win vs Arizona, and have won their first two games convincingly and enter this game against cross town rivals the San Diego Chargers with a full head of steam that will be hard to stop. Note: Teams like the Rams that allowed no more than six first downs last game like the Rams did are 45-16-2  ATS including 9-1 ATS L/10.Since moving to LA, the Rams are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS as favorites of more than 3 points under head coach Sean McVay and get the nod to add positive numbers into those columns here today.

Chargers are 3-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Chargers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.Chargers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games in September.Chargers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Chargers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 3.

NFL Home favorites (LA RAMS) - in non-conference games, off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival are 27-7 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the LA Rams to cover 

Miami has started  2-0 but I can't say its been very impressive. Meanwhile the Raiders despite of being 0-2 have played better in my opinion. They did not look put of place vs a powerful looking Rams team in week 1 and  than lost a heart breaker last week to Denver after blowing a 19-10 lead heading into the 4th quarter. This is a good spot for the Raiders to cover and be competitive vs a Fins team that are 2-9-1 ATS L/12 as a home favorite.

Raiders are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 3.Raiders are 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.Raiders are 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.Raiders are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in September.

Dolphins are 16-45-3 ATS in their last 64 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Dolphins are 1-4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.Dolphins are 4-22 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.Dolphins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 3.

OAKLAND is 23-9 ATS L/32 in road games after a loss by 6 or less points.MIAMI is 6-20 ATS  off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog.

Road teams (OAKLAND) - off a loss against a division rival, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight losses are 39-15 ATS L/35 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Oakland Raiders to cover 

Let me start by saying that NFL away teams, coming off a tie in their previous game, are 0-13 SU  L/13 times. dating back to 1988. So history does not favour the Green Bay Packers here this week in Washington. With  Green Bays super star Aaron Rodgers knee banged up and less than 100% the Packers look like weak favs in this spot.  Rodgers was sacked 4 times last week, and Im not sold on his ability to play favouring his knee which will inhibit his mobility. Also the Packers a a whole, are in a emotional  letdown situation after controlling their last game for 3 quarters before falling apart and settling for a lucky OT tie. Look for Skins defensive coordinator Greg Manusky to be ready to pressure Rodgers this Sunday . Note: Redskins coach Jay Gruden believes the key to controlling Rodgers is to bring pressure.QUOTE"

"The most important thing is that you've got to make him uncomfortable in the pocket," Gruden said. "If you give him time to move around and buy time, and find a second, third option, or fifth or sixth option because he's scrambling around, he's going to dice you up.

"The team's that have had success, which aren't very many, they pressure him, and that's the key." END QUOTE:

NFL Favorites (GREEN BAY) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 24 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 15-39 ATS in the followup dating back 35 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Washington to cover 

The Jags enter this game jacked up and ready to get revenge vs the Pats for last seasons play off elimination loss. But it must be noted that the Pats are not easily intimidated as is evident by a long standing trend that has shown them to be good bets in this situation. Note:the Patriots are 8-0 ATS when the line is within 3.5points of pick and their opponent is seeking revenge for a  post season defeat . You have also remember that the Pats are the healthiest they have been in a long time and Gronkowski is said to be 100% which is a dangerous situation for all comers in the NFL. QB Tom Brady also looks like he's on a mission and off a stellar performance in week 1 vs the Texans. Not a good omen for a  Jacksonville side that is 0-14 ATS when hosting a non-divisional op-ponent that is getting more than 65% of their first downs through the air.

NEW ENGLAND is 16-4 ATS  after playing a game at home over the last 3 seasons. NEW ENGLAND is 8-0 ATS  as a road favorite of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons.  England is 11-1 SU L/12 meetings in this series.

Play on New England to cover 

The Rams did not look completely cohesive last week in their win vs the Oakland Raiders. I  know they won by DDs, but their was still some issues especially early on in that tilt. This week against another side that is not considered very good, Im betting the Rams struggle again, to cover this big number even though they are at home. Arizona in their game vs Washington last week looked asleep at the wheel, mostly in the first half and allowed 30 first downs losing by a 24-6 count.That was the bad news, but the good news from a historical standpoint shows us that the  Cardinals are 13-0 ATS  L/13 as a underdog coming off a game where they allowed at least 22 first downs . Also the Cards D looked to get their footing in that loss last week, allowing just 3 points in the 2nd half which will give them stopping momentum coming into this tilt. Arizona has covered 6 straight as road opening underdogs. 

NFL Underdogs of 10.5 or more points (ARIZONA) - after a loss by 14 or more points against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game are 24-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on the Arizona Cards to cover 

Tennessee was smashed  in a 57-14 blowout loss to DeSaun Watson and the Texans last season.Im betting the Titans will have had this game circled for a long time now and be out looking for revenge and very primed for payback. Titans QB Marcus Mariota suffered an elbow injury in the 27-20 loss to the Dolphins last week but appeared on track to start against Houston after practicing fully on Wednesday , and will be ready to lead his team. Pros don't like to be embarrassed and Im betting on the avenging home team getting what they want here and that is redemption. 

TENNESSEE is 11-3 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. 

NFL Road teams vs. the money line (HOUSTON) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more straight losses, team that had a terrible record last season (25% or less ) playing a team had a winning record last year are 2-30 L/25 seasons for a go against 94% conversion rate for bettors.

Take the points with the Tennessee Titans to cover 

The Green Bay Packers have double revenge on board for a pair of losses they suffered to Minnesota last season. With super star QB Aaron Rodgers upgraded to probable Sunday the Packers have a good chance to get some payback and redemption here today at Lam-beau Field. Note : Aaron Rodgers is  11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS at home during the first six games of the season.

NFL Home teams vs. the money line (GREEN BAY) - good passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 60% or better, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 30-4 SU L/10 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Green Bay Packers to cover

Philly is off a Thursday night win vs Atlanta (18-12). Which is a good omen for their oppostion today today as defending champions are 24-6 straight up in tilts when  off a Thursday night contests, including 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS the last seven overall. Meanwhile, the Bucks are off an explosive effort and win vs New Orleans in their first game by a 48-40 count  as underdogs behind the arm of veteran QB Fitzgerald. Unfortunately for Bugs supporters a repeat type performance Im betting are not in the cards as Fitzgerald has a history of a down performance after his team took a straight up win as pups going 1-10 SU/ATS in the follow up .TAMPA BAY is also  0-6 ATS  off 1 or more straight overs over the last 2 seasons losing by an average of 6.1 ppg. 

TAMPA BAY is 1-9 ATS  after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored over the last 3 seasons. TB 19.5 Opp 26.9 (- TD + Diff)

PHILADELPHIA is 7-0 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons average margin of victory 10 ppg. 

Tampa Bay is 4-17 SU all-time against defending Super Bowl champions.

NFL team (TAMPA BAY) - off a win over a division rival as an underdog of 6 or more point are just 5-26 SU L/5 seasons in the followup . Team 26.5 Opp 16.9.

Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover 

The Packers have owned the  Bears over the last couple of seasons.  With the Vikings on board next week , for the Cheese Heads a look ahead situation vs a top tier  Minnesota Vikings team could mess with the coaching staff and players being fully prepared for this tilt. The Bears talent level is increasing and their ability to even pull off a straight up victory here on the road should not be underestimated . Look for a Bears defence that was already solid in the past to be even tougher now with Khalil Mack in the fold, and for the usually conservative offence under the tutelage of new HC and former KC offensive coordinator Matt Nagy to  be  much more cohesive behind the arm of the talented QB Mitch Trubisky.

NFL Home favorites (GREEN BAY) - team that had a losing record last season, in conference games are 87-141 L/34 seasons for a go against 62% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Chicago Bears to cover 

The Chargers started slow last season, losing their first 4 games  and despite of wanting to get off to a better start this season will be hard pressed to do so, vs a under rated KC Chiefs team that is well coached and capable of making life difficult for them. From a historical perspective the Chiefs have covered 5 straight here in Southern California , and from a league wide trends data base it must be noted that NFL Favorites (LA CHARGERS) - first 2 weeks of the year, non-playoff team from prior season who won their last 2 games are 4-23 ATSL/10 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Add to that Andy Reid is 5-1 ATS in the first month of the reg season in his L/6 divisional classes and we have a live dog to back here.

KANSAS CITY is 10-2 ATS  versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

KC to cover 

Minnesota is off an amazing season, going 13-3 SU and now once again look like one of the deepest teams in the conference. But it must be noted that teams in week 1 with 4 or fewer losses (including playoffs)last season are 35-48-2 ATS and far from sure bets coming into the following campaign. Also teams in week one at home who won 7 or 8 games (including playoffs) last season are just 30-41-1 ATS  L/72. Add to that Minnesota will have a new QB in Cousins who is 0-3 SU/ATS in home openers at the helm of the offence and it may take time to find his groove, behind a offensive line with some weaknesses Note: Nick Easton, the starting left guard and backup center, is out for the season after undergoing surgery to repair a bulging disk in his neck.  This is also a  pivot that has shown a lot of inconsistencies in the past .Meanwhile, San Francisco finished last season winning their L/5 games, and must not be underestimated on the road where they have played their best football of late as is evident by a 7-2 ATS mark in their L/9 away. Note: 49ers QB Jimmy Garappolo (7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS as a starter). 

49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in week 1.

Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC.

Play on the SF 49ers to cover