NFL Playoff Game of the Year Sunday - 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) @ Green Bay Packers @ 4:40 ET - The Packers secondary is banged up. Yes it will be cold in Green Bay Sunday but no precipitation is expected and winds are not expected to be significant enough to impact the aerial attack. In other words, look for the Pack to struggle to stop Eli Manning, Odell Beckham Jr. and company in this one. The Packers do enter the post-season on a 6-game winning streak but they've certainly had some good fortune on their side during the streak and they have allowed over 1,000 passing yards in their last 3 games! Of course Aaron Rodgers has been the key as he's seemingly willed this Packers team to victories throughout this winning streak. I have plenty of respect for Rodgers and his weapons in the receiving game as well but this Giants defense is going to give them some problems. New York is one of the top defenses in the league against the run and they also came on strong against the pass as the season went on. In their last 4 games of the regular season, the Giants allowed only 834 passing yards total! I am well aware of the fact that Green Bay beat the Giants earlier this season but, keep in mind, New York had a lot of new faces on defense early this season and it took this unit quite some time to jell. The Giants loss at Green Bay earlier this season dropped New York to 2-3 on the season. Since then, the Giants have gone 9-2. Also, the Giants have allowed only 15.3 points per game in their last 10 games. Green Bay has allowed an average of 25.3 points per game in their last 3 games. Also, the Giants have allowed more than 24 points only one time this entire season. The Packers have allowed 24 points or more in 7 of their last 10 games. Green Bay's average points per game allowed during this stretch was 26.5 points in the 10 games. Now for some history that is hard not to ignore here. Eli Manning and the Giants have been a machine in the playoffs as long as they've avoided their nemesis (division rival Eagles). Philadelphia knocked New York out of the post-season in 2006 and 2008. Prior to that, way back in 2005, Eli Manning made his playoff debut and he had an ugly game. So chalking up 1 game to the rookie experience and 2 games to facing a hated division rival that always gives them trouble, how have the Giants fared in all their other post-season experiences with Manning? 8-0 SU and 8-0 ATS. 7 of the games saw the Giants as a dog and, as you can see, they won all 7 outright. The lone time they were a small fave they won by 22 points! Green Bay lost to the Giants for two of those post-season New York victories and they would love to get revenge here. However, the defense (including the cluster of injuries that have hurt the secondary so badly) is going to prove to be the Packers downfall here. Green Bay is 3-5 in their last 8 playoff games and, in their last 5 home playoff games, the Pack covered the spread just once, that's 20% ATS! The Giants are 5-1 ATS when off of a win against a division rival and look for them to add another cover to that mark here. 10* Top Play NEW YORK GIANTS late afternoon Sunday

Earliest Cash Sunday - Rickenbach NFL 8* Pittsburgh Steelers (-) vs Miami Dolphins @ 1:05 ET - The biggest favorite on the board for Wild Card weekend and I am laying the points here. This huge line is absolutely justified. This is a revenge spot for the Steelers as they lost at Miami earlier this season and Ben Roethlisberger got hurt in that game and certainly wasn't himself. Look for Big Ben and Pittsburgh to get revenge here as they have won 7 straight games and they were on a 5-1 ATS run before the meaningless season finale where they did beat Cleveland but, of course, were resting starters. The Dolphins, other than their win over the Steelers, did not beat a single team this season that had more than 7 wins! Also, Miami's last 4 losses all came by 13 points or more. They're more than capable of getting blown out, especially when facing  revenging opponent that now has the huge edge at QB. While Ryan Tannehill is out for Miami, Big Ben is fired up for this rematch. The Steelers have the superior weapons all over the field in looking at this match-up. Miami head coach Adam Gase certainly deserves some credit for getting this Dolphins team to the playoffs but this is not a good match-up for them at all and, again, their only win against a team that didn't end up with a losing record this season was when they beat Pittsburgh with Roethlisberger basically playing the 2nd half on one leg! It's payback time in a big way here. Miami is 2-6 ATS when off of a loss against a division rival and also 0-3 ATS as a road dog of 7.5 to 10 points. The Steelers are 2-0 ATS in recent seasons and 23-12 ATS long-term when they are a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points. 8* PITTSBURGH early Sunday afternoon

NFL Value Game of the Week Saturday - Rickenbach NFL 10* Top Play Detroit Lions (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 8:15 ET - No one will want the Lions here and you know what that means at this time of year. Yes, I am being a contrarian and grabbing Detroit plus the big points. Of course it is certainly not without support! One of the biggest keys is that if you look at who Seattle has played this year you become much less impressed with them. The Seahawks certainly benefited in their own division because the Rams and 49'ers were awful this season. Those teams combined for a 6-26 record this season. Of course the other divisional foe was Arizona and Seattle did not defeat the Cardinals in either game. The Seahawks lost at home to the Cards just a few weeks ago and they tied the Cardinals at Arizona much earlier this season in a game where Seattle didn't even deserve to get the tie. The point is that Seattle ended up 3-2-1 in a division where the other teams were a combined 13-34-1. That is NOT impressive. Outside of their division the Seahawks lost to New Orleans and Tampa Bay (non-playoff teams with combined 16-16 record). Seattle did get to face a couple playoffs team and most of the results were not overly impressive when you try to justify laying big points here with the Seahawks. They beat Houston by 2 points, beat Atlanta by 2 points and lost at Green Bay by 28 points! Their only impressive win was of course the revenging win they got at New England in a primetime game where they played their best game of the season and managed to hang on for the win. While Detroit struggled to finish out the season those defeats against 3 straight playoff teams truly "swung" on big plays that shifted the momentum in each game. The playoffs are here, the Lions are battle-tested, and they'll hang in this one all the way. Detroit does have a solid defense and they only lost 2 games by more than 7 points this entire season. The Lions have some playoff experience under coach Jim Caldwell (lost by just 4 at Dallas two years ago) and the Seahawks are getting priced here as if they're the powerhouse they were two and three seasons ago when they made the Super Bowl each year. This team is not as that level. Grab the value here with the big dog. 10* Top Play DETROIT LIONS Saturday night

Daytime Dominator Saturday - Rickenbach NFL 8* Oakland Raiders (+) @ Houston Texans @ 4:35 ET - Both teams have issues at QB and I'll gladly take the points here. Houston is expected to go with Brock Osweiler because of Tom Savage's concussion. Oakland is expected to go with Connor Cook because back-up QB Matt McGloin injured his shoulder. Of course regular starting QB Derek Carr is out with a broken fibula. Everyone is likely to flock to Houston here because of having the home field edge and because of the Raiders being down to their 3rd string QB. However, the Texans offense is such a weakness (especially with Osweiler running the show) that I would not be surprised to see Oakland hang around throughout this game and then spring the upset late. Even if Houston does hang on for a win here I expect it to be by 3 points or less. Remember Oakland got the comeback win over the Texans in the Mexico City game not too long ago. Houston is only 7-7 in their last 14 games and every single win was decided by just a single possession. The average margin of victory in the 7 Texans wins was just 4 points. Houston's last 6 wins have seen 4 decided by a field goal or less. Look for everyone on the Raiders to "step up" and bring a huge effort because they know they have a rookie QB to support. Sometimes that brings the best of efforts out of an entire team and that is what I expect here as Cook makes his first-ever NFL start. The Raiders are a long-term 35-15 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points. They are also 7-1 ATS the past 3 seasons when off of a loss to a division rival. The Texas are 0-5 ATS this season when off of a game against a divisional foe. 8* OAKLAND Saturday afternoon

Primetime Punisher Top - Rickenbach NFL Sunday Night 10* Top Play Detroit Lions (+) vs Green Bay Packers @ 8:30 ET - No matter what happens earlier in the day Sunday this game will of course decided who wins the NFC North. However, it is also quite likely that this game will end up resulting in the loser staying home for the post-season! That said, this is a huge game no matter what and I expect it to be a huge battle. That is all the more reason that there is tremendous line value with being able to grab the Lions at +3.5 in this game. Getting the home dog in that price range is a huge edge. Green Bay enters this game on a 5-game winning streak but 3 of the games were against teams that will not end the season with a winning record. Also the Packers have benefited greatly from turnovers in many of their recent wins. That is why they keep on winning despite their biggest overall yardage edge in any of their last 4 games being just 2 yards (twice). The Packers actually were outgained in the other two games! A high total is posted on this game and the Lions are 7-0 (ATS and SU) in games with a posted total of 49.5 or more points the past 3 seasons. Detroit has lost the past two weeks but they were on the wrong end of the turnovers (2-0) in each game. Green Bay rates the better offense but is Aaron Rodgers really healthy? Also, the Lions do rate the edge on defense and special teams. Don't be surprised if the Lions get revenge for their loss at Green Bay earlier this season. However, I am certainly grabbing all the points I can get here in case the Lions fall just short. Home dog value! 10* DETROIT

Rickenbach NFL 8* Washington Redskins (-) vs New York Giants @ 4:25 ET Sunday - Yes this line is a little bit high (considering it has moved above a 7) but is absolutely justified. The Redskins don't completely control their destiny but they're about as close as you can get truly. Washington simply needs to win this game and they should absolutely be in the playoffs because the only way they wouldn't make it is if Detroit and Green Bay finished in a tie Sunday night and, of course, that is highly unlikely. That said, the Redskins actually catch a break by matching up with the Giants here. New York is already locked into the #5 seed in the NFC and it would be foolish for New York to risk injuring guys when this game can do nothing for their playoff position. That means a hungry Redskins team with an ultra-dangerous offense should hold the upper hand in this one. Washington's offense ranks as one of the tops in the league thanks to QB Cousins and the Giants strength is their defense but I can't see them being ultra-intense in this game considering their playoff position is already set and they need to stay healthy for next week. The Redskins are on an 8-3 ATS run in divisional action. The Giants are off of a loss at Philadelphia last week and are actually a surprising 1-6 SU (and 1-5-1 ATS) when off of a loss against a division rival. 8* WASHINGTON

Rickenbach NFL 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Denver Broncos vs Oakland Raiders @ 4:25 ET - Make no mistake about it, the Broncos want this game! The issue for them though is that they have one of the worst offenses in the NFL and the Raiders defense has shown improvement late in the season. That said, this has the makings of a low-scoring grudge match because the Broncos have a fantastic defense and will be going against an Oakland offense that is going to struggle badly in their first game without the injured QB Carr as the reins have now been handed over to Matt McGloin. He couldn't ask for a tougher assignment than to have to start at division rival Denver who would love nothing more than to spoil the Raiders hopes of an AFC West title. That said, this game means an awful lot to the Broncos who also have revenge for a loss at Oakland earlier this season. Sure the Broncos season has been a disappointment but they can still put a damper on the Raiders plans by getting a win here. That is what has led me to the under here as I don't trust Denver's offense at all but I do feel strongly that their D is going to make life miserable for McGloin and Company. That means the under should come in solid here. The under is a perfect 3-0 this season when the Broncos are off of a loss to a division rival. Also, the under is 5-2 this season in Denver games where their line is in a range of +3 to -3. Denver's offense is one of the league's worst and the Raiders offense is going to be completely different after the Carr injury. 10* UNDER in Denver

Rickenbach NFL 10* Top Play San Diego Chargers (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 4:25 ET Sunday - This is another one of those "danger spots" for a playoff bound team. Even though the Chiefs have locked in a playoff spot they still know that a win coupled with a Raiders loss would give them the AFC West Division. That said, Kansas City has all the pressure on them here while the Chargers would love nothing more than to make sure that they're hated division rival does not win the division. San Diego also has revenge from a loss at KC very early this season where the Chargers blew a big lead and then lost in OT. Look for San Diego to be amped up for this opportunity as it's the best way to finish their season (by making sure the Chiefs don't win the division) after the disappointment of losing at Cleveland last week. As ugly as San Diego's overall season record is, they've been "in" virtually every game this season and 5 of their last 9 losses all have come by 4 points or less. All but one of their 10 losses has been decided by 8 points or less. The Chargers will bring their A game this week and the Chiefs are one of the most over-rated 11-5 teams in league history as, based on yardage, they rank 20th on offense and 24th on defense in the league! San Diego actually ranks higher in both categories and the Chiefs special teams edge isn't enough to warrant them being this sizable of a favorite on the road. Ugly home dog likely to get the job done once again in a season finale (they beat Miami by 16 in LY's season finale). 10* SAN DIEGO

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 1 ET - This rivalry means a ton to the Eagles and especially the Philadelphia fans. The Eagles players, coaching staff, and upper management are certainly all well aware of this as well. What that means is that, even though Dallas is the team going to the playoffs and they have already locked up the #1 seed in the NFC, you'd better believe that Philly is going to "Bring It" on Sunday. For the Eagles, this is their Super Bowl. For the Cowboys, this is the one game where they walk the fine line of trying to keep starters "game ready" before the two week layoff while also getting the back-ups some work. Long story short, the Eagles want to win and are highly amped up about finishing this season on a high note for rookie QB Carson Wentz, first year head coach Doug Pederson, and the entire organization and it's rabid fan base. Remember this is a big revenge game for the Eagles too because they never should have lost the game in Dallas earlier this season. They had a huge lead but then relinquished it and lost in overtime. It is time for payback here. That payback means a lot to the Eagles while the Cowboys have "bigger and better things" to look ahead too. Dallas could care or less about this game! 8* PHILADELPHIA

Primetime Punisher Monday - Rickenbach NFL 10* Top Play Detroit Lions (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:30 ET Monday - Certainly the Cowboys are "saying the right things" in terms of wanting to keep playing their starters and keep the momentum going even though they've now locked up the #1 seed in the NFC. However, I just don't see Dallas as being able to truly bring forth the high level of intensity necessary to knock off the Lions in convincing fashion on Monday Night Football. Detroit needs this win and will be the hungrier team. Also, the injuries to quarterbacks Derek Carr and Marcus Mariota Saturday have to heavily weigh on the minds of the Cowboys here. It is now that fine line between maintaining momentum but trying not to get anyone hurt that is in effect for Dallas here. The key value is not only in that plus the hunger of the Lions here, but also the fact that the Cowboys truly haven't been playing all that dominant of late. Dallas has failed to cover 4 straight games and their weakness is their pass defense while the strength of the Lions offense is their aerial attack. Detroit is on a 5-1 SU run and 4-2 ATS run and they did outgain their opponent in each of the two ATS losses but the problem was turnovers as they lost the TO battle 2-0 in each of those games. The Cowboys come into this game with 6 turnovers in their last 3 games and only twice in their last eight games have they won by a margin of more than 6 points. Detroit is 7-3 ATS in games played on turf, 3-0 ATS in Monday night football, and the Lions are 5-1 ATS versus the NFC East. The Cowboys are 7-12 ATS their last 19 games against teams with a winning record and also 10-21 ATS their last 31 games played on turf. The Lions were up 17-7 at halftime in a playoff game in January of 2015 in the most recent game between these teams. That match-up ended up being a 24-20 win for the Cowboys here in Dallas and the Lions have their sights set on payback in this one. 10* DETROIT LIONS Monday

Primetimer Punisher 10* - Rickenbach NFL 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs (-) vs Denver Broncos @ 8:30 ET Sunday - This is a revenge game for the Broncos as they lost a game to the Chiefs they never should have lost when Denver hosted Kansas City 4 weeks ago. However, even though the Broncos have revenge, they also are a team with a lot of issues. Those "issues" boiled over last week as there was some in-fighting on the team between offensive and defensive players after another pathetic effort for the Denver offense. The Broncos have now scored a total of just 13 points plus had 5 turnovers the past two weeks. The issue on Sunday night is that very windy conditions are expected in Kansas City and that means the running game will have some added importance in this one. Denver has run for a total of only 76 yards in their last two games and, overall, the Broncos have been held to 58 rushing yards or less in 4 of their last 7 games. The Chiefs are off of a 158 yard rushing performance against the Titans last week and that is the same Titans team against whom the Broncos could not run against and netted only 18 yards on the ground. With KC losing that game to Tennessee on a last second field goal, the Chiefs are fired up for their final home game of the regular season. Kansas City had won and covered 3 straight prior to that loss. The Chiefs are 3-0 ATS this season when off of a loss and also 4-0 SU (and 3-1 ATS) in divisional games this season. The Broncos are 1-4 SU and ATS in their games against teams with a winning record this season and also an ugly 1-3 SU and ATS in divisional games this season. Those trends continue here. 10* KANSAS CITY

Christmas PA Insider - Rickenbach NFL 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (-) vs Baltimore Ravens @ 4:30 ET - The Steelers will ride the momentum of last week's comeback win over Cincinnati (trailed 20-6) to get some payback against the division rival Ravens. Baltimore got the win in the first match-up but that was QB Ben Roethlisberger's first game back after returning from injury and he clearly was not 100% yet. Big Ben did lead a late comeback in that game but it fell short as the Steelers had fallen into a 21-0 hole in that game. The Ravens have taken 4 straight meetings with the Steelers and overall have won 5 of the last 6 including a playoff game in Pittsburgh in January of 2015. Needless to say, the Steelers have plenty of pent up frustration they are going to unleash today as they look for payback and Pittsburgh comes into this game as the healthier team. After the loss to the Ravens earlier this season the Steelers then lost a heartbreaker to the Cowboys but they have since won and covered 5 straight games and are now one of the hottest teams in the league. The Ravens are off of a win over a fading Eagles team. Prior to barely notching that 1 point victory, Baltimore had allowed 294 passing yards per game in their previous 4 games. Look for Roethlisberger and company to attack the Ravens with great success early and often through the air Sunday. Baltimore is on an 0-3 ATS run as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. The Steelers are on a 10-1 SU (and 9-1 ATS) run in December games. Mild weather for late December and light winds with no precipitation will combined to allow one of the top offenses in the league (Pittsburgh) to hold the upper hand in this one. 10* PITTSBURGH 

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL 8* Cincinnati Bengals (+) @ Houston Texans @ 8:25 ET Saturday - I realize Texans backers deserved a better fate last week as they thoroughly dominated Jacksonville statistically but only won the game by a single point as a 3 point choice over the Jaguars. However, Houston certainly has issues - most prominently the QB position of course - and the Bengals come into this game with nothing to lose and that makes for a dangerous late-season dog. Keep in mind, Cincinnati led the Steelers 20-6 last week before losing while the Texans were down 20-8 last week before rallying for the win over the Jaguars. The point is that there is some value here with the way the latter portions of last week's games involving these teams played out. Also, you can bet that the Bengals paid particular attention to how QB Savage engineered the comeback win for Houston last week when he came on in relief of an ineffective Osweiler. The point is that Savage may not find it so easy this week against a Bengals defense that had allowed just 14.8 points per game in their 4 games prior to allowing 24 to Pittsburgh last week. Of course the Steelers offense is light years ahead of the Texans so that is another important point to consider when looking at this game. Houston does have a solid defense but they have allowed 21.1 points per game in their last 6 games. In other words, it's going to be an all out war for the Texans just to win this game and while I'd love to have +3 in this game I still have no trouble backing the better offense at +2.5 and going against a QB (Savage) whose only NFL regular season action since 2014 came last week against a 2-12 Jaguars team. The Bengals are ticked off of about the loss to the Steelers and are 4-2 SU and ATS when off of a loss against a division rival. The Texans are off of that tight win over the Jags and have gone 0-4 ATS this season when off of a win against a division rival. 8* CINCINNATI

Rickenbach NFL 8* Arizona Cardinals (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 4:25 ET Saturday - The Cardinals have had a disappointing season especially considering that expectations were high coming into this season. That said, they still hate the Seahawks and they know they let one get away earlier this season when they finished in a 6-6 tie with Seattle in Arizona. That said, it is time for a little payback Saturday and it doesn't matter what the records are when these teams match-up as the Cards are going to "bring it" when they face the Hawks. Arizona is on a 6-2 ATS run as a road dog in divisional action. Also, the Cardinals are 9-4 ATS long-term in Saturday games. They enter this game on a 2-game losing streak and have gone 2-0 ATS this season when they have entered a game on a losing streak of two or more games. Seattle's last two wins have come against teams that are a combined 10-18 but they've lost their other two games by a combined score of 52 to 15 in games where they were challenged by a quality opponent. I realize their tough record this season says otherwise but the Cardinals are a quality opponent and they'll fight all the way in this game at Seattle. Remember that when they matched up in Arizona earlier this season the Seahawks didn't even make it past mid-field until there were about 5 minutes to go in the game. The Cardinals give Seattle's offense headaches once again in this one as they look for the upset and that has me grabbing the big points in this one. 8* ARIZONA

Rickenbach NFL 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints (-) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 4:25 ET Saturday - The Saints are an amazing team in dome games. With their huge win at Arizona last week they have averaged 33.1 points per game in their 8 games played in domes this season. That win over the Cardinals was a dome game and, of course, their first 7 home games are the other part of that equation. Saturday's game in the Superdome is the Saints home finale and I expect their high-octane offense to lead the way once again. The Buccaneers certainly are the better defense when comparing these two teams but they don't have the offense to keep up in this one. This is especially true with the Saints seeking revenge for an ugly 16-11 loss to the Bucs two weeks ago in Tampa Bay. New Orleans is looking to do anything they can to play "spoiler" here against a division rival and, having lost their most recent home game (to Detroit), the last thing the Saints want to have happen is to finish the season on a 2-game home losing streak. Tampa Bay is coming off of a grueling battle with Dallas last week and I expect them to be a little deflated from the loss to the Cowboys and they took a beating up front with the bruising offensive line of the Cowboys plus running back Ezekiel Elliott pounding away. The Saints will be the fresher team and certainly have the stronger offense. In road games with a posted total of 49.5 or more the Buccaneers have gone 1-4 SU and ATS long-term. Also, long-term mark on Saturdays for the Bucs is 3-10 SU and 2-11 ATS! The Saints are 8-3 ATS the past 3 seasons when playing with revenge. 10* NEW ORLEANS

Rickenbach NFL 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oakland Raiders vs Indianapolis Colts @ 4:05 ET - The Colts defense has looked better lately but they've faced a number of weak offenses with struggling QB's. Certainly facing the Raiders - one of the top offenses in the league - is going to present a greater challenge and I expect the Indianapolis defense (ranked 28th for yards allowed) to give up plenty of big plays in this game. What is likely to keep the Colts in this game is that they do have one of the top passing offenses in the league and the Raiders defense (ranked 30th for yards allowed) is one of the worst units in the NFL. The over is 5-1 this season (and 15-5 the L3 seasons) in Raiders home games. This season the over is a perfect 4-0 in Oakland's games where they are a favorite in a range of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The over is 5-1 this season (and 15-8 the L3 seasons) in Colts road games. Also, in games played on grass Indianapolis has gone 14-4 to the over the L3 seasons including a perfect 5-0 this season. This is the biggest total on the board in this week's NFL but it is absolutely justified. Good weather, weak defenses, dangerous offenses led by solid QBs will all combine to turn this one into a shootout. 10* OVER the total in Oakland

Rickenbach NFL 8* Chicago Bears (+) vs Washington Redskins @ 1 ET Saturday - The Bears have been playing hard and I don't expect that to stop in what is their final home game of the season. With their big comeback (lost but got inside the number) against the Packers last week, Chicago is now on a 5-0 (or 4-0-1) ATS run. They have the rest edge here as teams playing today on Saturday are certainly on a short week but it's tougher for the Redskins than the Bears as Washington hosted Carolina on Monday Night! The Skins are on a 1-3 ATS run (and 9-19 ATS long-term) when off of a Monday night game. Also Washington has not fared well as a favorite with a 5-9 ATS mark the past 3 seasons and a 58-91 ATS mark long-term. As a road favorite of 3 points or less the Redskins have gone 6-13 ATS. The Bears are a 5-2 ATS at home this season and 4-1 ATS in their games against teams with a winning record. Chicago also is on an 11-6 ATS run when they enter a game off of 2 or more consecutive losses. The Bears are hungry to win their home finale and knowing they can't make the playoffs they would love nothing more than to ruin the Redskins hopes of making the post-season as well. In doing so, Chicago would avenge their loss to Washington last December. I do expect the Bears to win this outright but will grab all available points. 8* CHICAGO

Rickenbach NFL 8* Carolina Panthers (+) vs Atlanta Falcons @ 1 ET Saturday - Short week for both teams since this is a Saturday game and it is particularly short for the Panthers since they visited Washington on Monday Night. However, the fact that Carolina crushed the Redskins 26 to 15 and the fact that the Panthers have forced 8 turnovers has me backing the hungry and surging home dog in this one. The home team has covered 4 of the last 5 meetings between these teams. Each of the last two meetings have been in Atlanta and the Falcons won and covered both and that sets this up as a double revenge spot for the Panthers. The last time they hosted Atlanta they blasted them 38 to 0. I definitely respect the Falcons and their top ranked offense but this is a big division rivalry and Atlanta is going from facing the Rams and 49'ers the past two weeks (combined record of 5-23 this season) to facing a surging division rival that is playing "hungry" and has produced solid wins in back to back weeks. Keep in mind, the Falcons had lost 2 of their last 3 before those back to back wins against two of the worst teams in the league. Also, Atlanta is on a 7-17 ATS run as a favorite the past 3 seasons. The Panthers are on a 15-8 ATS run the past three seasons in games where their line ranges from -3 to +3. I am expecting the upset but grabbing the points here! 8* CAROLINA

Rickenbach NFL 8* Jacksonville Jaguars (+) vs Tennessee Titans @ 1 ET Saturday - The Jaguars made news for firing their head coach after the 21-20 loss at Houston last week that was actually much uglier than the final score indicates. Even though that was another ugly loss for the Jags, I look for Jacksonville to respond after the firing and give a huge effort for interim coach Doug Marrone in what is the Jaguars final home game of the season. The Titans, of course, have plenty to play for and have won 3 straight games. Tennessee also is a very balance team with a solid offense and respectable defense. However, this is a bit of a "trap game" for the Titans because it's a divisional rival on the road and it is in front of a divisional showdown game with the Texans on deck for next week. Also, Jacksonville has simply been done in by turnovers and mistakes throughout this season. With Marrone taking over the reins and the players feeling some responsibility for Gus Bradley's firing right before Christmas, look for the Jaguars to give one helluva strong effort in this one. The key point about the turnovers and mistakes being a big issue for the Jags is further evidenced by the fact that their defense (321.4 ypg) ranks ahead of the Titans defense (358.4 ypg) but you would never know that by looking at the standings. Tennessee may indeed gut out a win here but I expect this to be a fiercely contested battle decided by 3 points or less. The Jaguars are going to go hard. Also, the Titans are on a 2-13 ATS run in divisional action, 3-17 ATS in games against teams with a losing record, and 28-49 ATS long-term when a favorite in a range of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Jaguars are on a 6-3 ATS run in Saturday games and also 6-3 ATS when off of a loss to a division rival. 8* JACKSONVILLE

Divisional Dominator Thursday - NFL Game #101 - Rickenbach 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants @ 8:25 ET - In their one point loss at Baltimore Sunday the Eagles showed they have thrown caution to the wind as they went for the 2-point conversion after a late TD with just 4 seconds left in the game. Had they been successful they would have got the win but instead they ended up with a one point loss. Of course the decision makes sense given that their season ended a few weeks ago (in terms of playoff hopes) as losses continued to pile up. How that leads me to the over in this match-up Thursday is because you can bank on the Eagles being willing to take chances throughout this game as they would love nothing more than to knock off the divisional rival Giants and certainly Philadelphia has nothing to lose. That means opening up the playbook, trick plays, etc. Whatever it takes this will be a wide open game from the Eagles perspective. Philadelphia has averaged 29.2 points per game in their last 5 meetings with the Giants but New York is a small favorite here and rightly so. The point is that a very high-scoring game in the range of 31-28 would not surprise here. Skies will be clear with winds likely only in the 10 mph range and temps in the thirties which is not bad at all for this time of year. The over is 3-0 in Eagles December games and 4-0 in their divisional games this season. More of the same tonight. 10* OVER in Philadelphia

MNF Primetime Punisher - NFL Game #331 - Rickenbach 8* Carolina Panthers (+) @ Washington Redskins @ 8:30 ET - I believe we're getting exceptional line value here because of Panthers QB Cam Newton's shoulder injury. Keep in mind, the Carolina defense has forced 10 turnovers in their last 4 games. By comparison, the Redskins have forced just 2 turnovers in their last 3 games. Statistically both of these defenses rank in the bottom third of the league but the Panthers held San Diego to just 278 yards last week plus forced 5 turnovers. Of course Carolina has had a frustrating season but, off of a win last week and knowing that this is truly their last chance to shine this season because of no post-season and no other prime-time games left for them, look for the Panthers to absolutely "bring it" on Monday Night Football tonight. The Redskins are over-rated in my opinion. Not only do they have a poor defense but their 7 wins and 1 tie have included Philadelphia (5-9 record) TWICE, the Browns (0-14), the Vikings (7-7), and the Bengals (5-8-1). Against the rest of the league Washington went just 3-5. I know the Panthers have a poor record on the season but this is still a team that went to the Super Bowl last season and will still "go hard" based on "professional pride" and the fact that the Monday Night lights are shining tonight. The fact this line is all the way up to a full +7 is what is truly adding great line value here. Keep in mind the Redskins didn't defeat the floundering Eagles until they got a TD with less than 2 minutes to go last week. Also, Washington lost their two games prior to beating Philly. Carolina has won each of its last 4 meetings with the Skins and the average margin of victory has been double digits! The Panthers are on a 14-6 ATS run as a road dog. Also, as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points, Carolina is 4-1 ATS the past three seasons. As a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points, the Redskins are a long-term 13-27 ATS. Grab the generous points in this one. 8* CAROLINA

Primetime Punisher - NFL Game #305 Sunday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:30 ET - The Cowboys only two straight-up losses this season are to the Giants after last week's loss at New York. However, last week's defeat did mark the 3rd straight ATS loss that Dallas has suffered and it is clear that rookie QB Dak Prescott has regressed a bit over the last couple weeks. Keep in mind that the pressure is more intense now too because Dallas still needs a win to clinch the NFC East and this is true even if the Giants lose to the Lions earlier in the day Sunday. I expect the pressure to start to catch up with "The Boys" here and the Dallas D was helped by facing a struggling Giants offense last week. Prior to that, Dallas allowed 1.347 passing yards their prior 4 games. That is an average of 336.8 passing yards given up per game for the Cowboys secondary. Tampa Bay's passing attack didn't have to do much last week as the Buccaneers defense did most of the "heavy lifting" to defeat the Saints last week. However, prior to that win over the Saints, the TB passing attack produced 1,417 yards in 5 games. That's an average of 283.4 passing yards per game for the Bucs offense. Don't be surprised if the Bucs (in a huge battle for the top spot in the NFC South) give the Cowboys all they can handle in this one! The Buccaneers are on a 5-1 ATS run as a road dog and all 5 wins were outright wins by an average margin of 7 points per game! That said, I'll certainly take the 7 points that are being offered here in a game where Tampa Bay could very well get the upset over the over-rated Cowboys who are starting to come back down to earth. At the very least, look for Dallas to suffer their 4th straight ATS loss. The Cowboys are on a 1-4 SU and ATS run against NFC South opponents. The Bucs are on a long-term 18-6 ATS run in road games where the posted total is between 45.5 and 49 points. More of the same Sunday night. 10* TAMPA BAY

Game of the Month - NFL Game #326 Sunday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Denver Broncos (+) vs New England Patriots @ 4:25 ET - The Broncos are one of the few teams that has given the Patriots some trouble in recent years. Certainly I am well aware of the fact that the Broncos offense is a weakness but their defense is a tremendous strength and they have fared well against Tom Brady and Company in recent years. Yes, this is a revenge game for the Patriots (since the Broncos knocked the Pats out of the post-season in January), but the fact is this is a tough spot for New England. The Patriots are on a short week and just faced a very physical Ravens defense and now have to face another tough, physical defense in the form of the Broncos. Also, the short week issue is magnified by having to travel plus now play in the thin air of Colorado. By the way, that air is extra thin when a strong cold front has just moved through. Conditions certainly aren't expected to be brutal but it is unlikely the temperature gets above freezing today in Denver and the "Mile High" air could wear down the Pats as the game goes on. The Patriots are only 1-5 ATS (and SU!) as a road fave of 3 points or less the past three seasons. Also, the home team has won each of the last 3 meetings between these teams. The Pats are a ridiculous 10-3 ATS this season but most of their wins since Brady returned have come against losing teams. The toughest AFC team the Patriots faced was the Steelers but Pittsburgh was without Ben Roethlisberger in that game. The toughest NFC team the Pats faced was Seattle and that was the lone game that the Patriots have lost since Brady returned. This could be loss #2 since Brady's return as the Broncos are fighting for their playoff lives and they are off of a tough, tight loss at Tennessee last week where their rally fell short. The Broncos are 4-0 ATS as a home dog of 3 points or less and all 4 wins were outright victories. Grab the points! 10* DENVER

Total of the Week - NFL Game #323 - Rickenbach 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49'ers @ 4:05 ET - The Falcons are the #1 offense in the league based on points per game. The 49'ers are the worst defense in the league based on points allowed per game and yards given up per game. This game is, of course, being played in a dome so there is no weather concern here and I look for both teams to truly "open it up" on offense. Certainly it has been a dismal season for the 49'ers but there have been a few "flickers of life" for the 49'ers offense throughout the season. Other than a 6 point effort at Chicago two weeks ago, San Francisco has averaged 20.4 points per game in their other games this season and the Niners have not been held to less than 16 points in any of those 12 games. The 49'ers offense should enjoy success against a Falcons defense that ranks as one of the league's worst and also is currently dealing with significant injury issues effecting the secondary. The issue for San Francisco is going to be in trying to stop Matt Ryan and Company through the air and I just don't see that happening. The Falcons just have too much on offense, even with Julio Jones likely out for this game. The over is 8-0 this season in Atlanta's games played on turf. Long-term the Falcons are on a 23-10 ATS run to the over in their games against NFC West opponents. Also, the 49'ers are 4-2 to the over in their road games under Chip Kelly and 3-0 t the over in their games against NFC South foes. 10* OVER in Atlanta

NFL Game #307 Sunday - Rickenbach 8* Detroit Lions (+) @ New York Giants @ 1 ET - The Lions are catching the Giants off of a huge Sunday night win over the division rival Cowboys. That sets this one up nicely as, even though Detroit is off of a divisional win also, the Lions victory came against a 3-10 Bears team. The Giants offense has been held under 300 yards now for three straight games! The Lions are coming off of a non-covering win last week but that was their 5th straight SU win and Detroit brought a 7-1 ATS run in that game versus Chicago. Last week's game against the Bears marked the 7th straight time that the Lions have allowed 20 points or less as their defense continues to improve. Looking at the Giants 10 games prior to beating Dallas last week, their defense dominated the Browns, Bears, and Rams but those teams are a combined 7-32 on the seasons! In the other 7 games the Giants allowed at least 20 points in all 7 games and the average points allowed was 23.7 points per game. The Lions and the Giants have more in common than their 9-4 records, Detroit is just as good (if not better) than New York and you can see by the defensive numbers above and the Giants recent futility on offense, that there is no reason for the Giants to be favored by 4.5 points in this game. The value is with the points especially with the G-men off of such a big win. 8* DETROIT

NFL Game #313 Sunday - Rickenbach 8* Indianapolis Colts (+) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET - Andrew Luck or Sam Bradford? Who would you rather have at QB? This game is being played indoors and Luck and Company are off of a turnover-plagued home to the division rival Texans last week. The Colts are still alive in the playoff race but this a must-win for them and I look for Luck to respond in a big way after last week's disappointing defeat. As for the Vikings, yes they won last but they only had a small yardage edge and that was against a 2-11 Jacksonville team. The Vikes certainly face a much tougher test this week. The Colts have won and covered three straight road games! Amazingly, Indianapolis has played 6 games away from home this season and they've averaged 29.7 points per game in those 6 games. Certainly I respect the Vikings defense but this is a dangerous Colts offense and Minnesota had lost 6 of their last 7 games before defeating the Jaguars last week. Indy is 10-5 SU and ATS when off of a divisional game and also the Colts have gone 8-4 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points the past three seasons combined. More of the same here. 8* INDIANAPOLIS

NFL Game #317 Sunday - Rickenbach 8* Tennessee Titans (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 1 ET - The Chiefs have been fortunate this season in terms of turnovers and they also have been excellent in special teams play. That has been the key to a 10-3 record despite, based on yardage, ranking 24th on offense and 27th on defense this season. Truly the Chiefs have to be one of the "worst good teams" ever based on the stats they've produced this season. Certainly one must give credit to Kansas City for "finding a way" week in and week out but the point is that this is still an over-rated football team. That is helping to drive this line higher than it should be as KC actually comes into this game on a 2-7 ATS run in home games and yet this line is up near a full TD. It will be very cold in Kansas City Sunday afternoon and I look for the Titans to hold the edge here as the ground game could be key. Tennessee is one of the top teams in the league with their ground attack on offense AND in terms of defending the run on defense. The Titans offense struggled last week but that was against Denver and the Broncos have one of the best defenses in the league. Tennessee will find the going a little easier this week! The Titans also have an edge in catching the Chiefs off of a huge divisional win over the Raiders last week that was a battle of teams at the top of the AFC West. Kansas City has only covered 2 of their last 7 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points and I look for that trend to chalk up another ATS loss this week. 8* TENNESSEE

Saturday NFL Blowout Rout - NFL Game #303 Saturday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Miami Dolphins (-) @ New York Jets @ 8:25 ET - With this line dropping lower (currently a -2) I would recommend playing the money line in this match-up as it is a great value on the 8-5 Dolphins. Yes, I am well aware of the fact that Ryan Tannehill is out for Miami but back-up QB Matt Moore is a veteran back-up and he was able to work out some of the rust last week in relief of Tannehill. You can bank on Moore being ready for this game and the remainder of the Dolphins roster is actually much healthier than the Jets roster and, let's not forget, New York is starting young QB Bryce Petty who has 3 picks against just 1 TD in his last two games. Also, Petty was sacked 6 times in last week's win. Even though the Jets won that game in comeback fashion it was against a 49'ers team that is now just 1-12 on the season. In fact, the hapless Jets have only 4 wins this season and one of the other victories was against the now 0-13 Browns. So, to put that in proper perspective, the Jets have two wins against teams that are a combined 1-25 on the season and, against the rest of the league, New York has gone 2-9. I'll gladly take my "chances" with the Dolphins on the road! Miami is the better team, they're fighting for a playoff spot, and they've won 7 of their last 8 games. Also, the Dolphins are on a 6-0 run against teams that currently have a losing record on the season. The only loss in Miami's last 8 games came against the Ravens. The Jets are 0-3 this season (and 3-12 the past 3 seasons combined) in games against teams with a winning record. 10* Top Play MIAMI DOLPHINS Saturday night

Thursday Thrasher - NFL Game #301 Thursday - Rickenbach 8* Los Angeles Rams (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 8:25 ET - The Rams fired head coach Fisher and Fassel (special teams coordinator) takes over as coach for this one. If that didn't get the attention of the Los Angeles players, nothing will. The fact is that I do expect a strong effort from LA tonight and that will go a long way toward the Rams staying inside this inflated number. Yes, I am well aware of the fact that Seattle is off of a blowout loss at Green Bay (and will be looking to respond) as I actually had the Packers as my Game of the Year in that spot. However, the Seahawks did have 6 turnovers in that game including 5 interceptions. Though winds will be light and no precipitation is expected tonight, it will be quite chilly with temperatures likely dipping into the 20s during this one. The point is that Seattle will want to focus on a ground game that has been bolstered with the return of Lou Rawls and I expect the Seahawks to pound with their rushing attack throughout this game after the 5 picks thrown by Russell Wilson in last week's game. Overall, Wilson simply had a poor game with a number of overthrown receivers too. After this rough effort, and facing a Rams team that has played them tough in recent meetings and will be fired up for this game, look for Seattle to be willing to grind out a win rather than go for the gusto of a huge win by more than two TDs. Simply put, the Seahawks "just need a W" here and that's what I expect to see as the focus of their game plan for this one. With the Rams players ready to step up and play with intensity (especially knowing that everyone is watching since its the lone game on a Thursday night) I look for this game to stay much more competitive than many are expecting. I know it's an ugly dog scenario but it is the right play in this spot the way I expect this one to play out. I know this is a revenge game for Seattle but the points are too big and the Rams have won 4 of the last 5 meetings (SU and ATS) between these clubs. The Seahawks are only 3-6 ATS as a favorite this season. Interestingly, in games 13 through 16 of the season, the Rams have gone 9-1 ATS when they are off of a non-divisional home game and are facing a winning team who is playing with revenge! Seattle, after their non-covering win over Atlanta earlier this season, dropped to 1-6 ATS when they have the Cardinals on deck. Up next for Seattle is Arizona and so I'll gladly test these two trends which combine for a 15-2 (88%) ATS spot favoring the big road dog. 8* LOS ANGELES RAMS Thursday

Bulldog's Best - NFL Game #133 Monday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens (+) @ New England Patriots @ 8:30 ET - The Ravens are playing this game with revenge as they lost at New England by 4 points on January 10, 2015 in the divisional round of the playoffs. That was after a hard-fought win at Pittsburgh in the Wild Card round the week before. The situation is a little better this time around for Baltimore as they come into this game with extra rest and off of an easy home blowout win over the Dolphins. Also, the Pats are certainly going to miss TE Rob Gronkowski who is out with a back injury. The Ravens are on a 5-0 ATS run in Monday Night Football. Long-term the Ravens have an amazing 15-6 ATS mark on Monday Night Football. Baltimore is on a 5-1 ATS run against AFC East foes and their long-term mark against the division is a stellar 29-16 ATS. The Patriots are on an 0-3 ATS run in Monday Night Football games. Couple that with the Ravens mark and you have an 8-0 ATS spot favoring Baltimore in this one. Look for them to keep this game very close and I still feel the Patriots are over-rated. Yes, they've been great since QB Tom Brady returned but 6 of their wins came against teams with a losing record on the season and they went just 1-1 against teams with a winning record. The combined record of those 6 losing teams that Brady defeated is 20-57-1. Still impressed by the Pats? The Patriots only went 1-1 against quality teams (beating Pittsburgh without QB Ben Roethlisberger) and losing to the Seahawks and New England was outgained in BOTH of those games. The Ravens should win this one outright but grabbing the points is the way to go as I look for the 8-0 ATS spot to remain perfect. 10* Top Play BALTIMORE RAVENS plus the points Monday Night

NFL Sunday Night Best Bet - NFL Game #132 Sunday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:30 ET - One could look at this game and say all the pressure is on the Giants in this one but truly Dallas knows how important this game is and has to be feeling pressure too. The Cowboys have had a phenomenal season but they also keep winning with some "smoke and mirrors" too as they have had so many close victories and games where a key bounce or key momentum shift always seems to go their way. They were outgained by the Vikings in last week's non-covering win and the reason I mention the importance of this game is that the Boys have the Buccaneers and Lions on deck. Each of those teams enter this week having won 4 straight games. Then the Eagles will host the Cowboys in the final week of the regular season and you know they'd love nothing more than to knock off Dallas if that was a game the Cowboys still needed to lock up the division. The point is that the real pressure is on Dallas here who needs this win to nail down the division. The Giants already beat the Cowboys earlier this season so another win clinches the tie-breaker edge and New York would stay alive in the NFC East race. As it is, the Giants would be content just to make the post-season and they are currently in good position for that so, again, I contend the real pressure here is on Dallas. The Cowboys are starting to feel it as every team is gunning for them every week and after a ridiculous ATS run where everything was breaking their way, they've failed to cover in back to back weeks. Look for this one to make it 3 in a row. The Giants are fired up off of a loss at Pittsburgh and New York had won 6 straight before that loss. The Giants are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points. The Cowboys fade has begun and they are 4-7 ATS their last 11 when, in the 2nd half of a season, they are facing a team with a winning record. Dallas is also on an ugly 1-10-1 ATS run as a favorite when facing an NFC foe with a winning percentage of .666 or greater. That makes this a 10-1 (91%) spot to play on the home dog in this one! 10* Top Play NEW YORK GIANTS plus the points Sunday night.

NFL Game of the Year - NFL Game #128 Sunday - Rickenbach 10* NFL Top Play Green Bay Packers (+) vs Seattle Seahawks @ 4:25 ET - Most of the snow (up to 6 inches expected) will have already fallen by the time this game kicks off but it will still be a "Green Bay" kind of day which certainly favors the home team. In fact, dating back to 2008, the Packers have won 15 of their last 16 home games! Green Bay is known for thriving on the frozen tundra at this time of year and this is a must win game for them. They are catching Seattle at the ideal time to spring the upset here as a field goal underdog. The Seahawks are off of a huge revenging win versus Carolina last week. The Hawks wanted that game badly as the Panthers knocked them out of the post-season in January. Now Seattle has to try and come up with another big game in back to back weeks and I just don't see that happening on the road against a much hungrier Green Bay team that is fighting for their playoff lives. The Packers, after a rough stretch, have gotten a little healthier and they've settled back in for solid wins in back to back weeks as they have allowed just 13 points each game.  Keep in mind, the Seahawks haven't exactly been lighting up the scoreboard on the road this season. In fact, against NFC competition, the Seahawks have averaged only 8.5 points per game in 4 road games! In addition to the 15-1 stat noted above which favors the Packers. We also have a 7-0 spot facing the Seahawks here. Seattle is 0-7 ATS when they are playing with revenge, are off of a double digit cover, and their opponent has a winning percentage of .400 or greater. The Packers beat Seattle last season so this is a revenge spot. The Seahawks covered by 25+ points against the Panthers like week so that piece is in effect too and, also, the Packers are 6-6 on the year so certainly they are above .400 on the season. Green Bay is also 10-1 ATS when they are at home and off of a non-conference game. Lastly, the Packers are 6-1 ATS as dogs of more than 2 points when facing an opponent whose winning percentage is greater than .666 on the season. Combining the angles above (15-1, 7-0, 10-1, 6-1) we have a fantastic 38-3 (93%) ATS spot favoring the Packers. Yes I know the 15-1 angle is a SU angle but Green Bay is the dog here so any SU win will serve as an ATS win for the Packers. Look for them to get this key win in the playoff race as they catch the Seahawks at the perfect time. 10* GREEN BAY PACKERS plus the points on Sunday afternoon

NFL Game #112 Sunday - Rickenbach 8* Cleveland Browns (+) vs Cincinnati Bengals @ 1 ET - The Browns certainly are a bad team but not many teams go 0-16 on a season. That said, if they're going to get 1 win this season, this certainly looks like the most likely spot for it to happen. Cleveland's remaining games feature two road games and a tough home match-up with a feisty San Diego team. With that said, the Browns have had this game circled as "the" opportunity. Cleveland is off of their bye week, they're catching the Bengals off of a big win over the Eagles last week, and the Browns get RG III back under center for this one. The situation simply doesn't get much better than that. Of course we don't need an outright win to get the cash here and, with snow likely during this game, accumulating snow and cold weather conditions should make for exactly the type of "ugly game" where it is nice to have those points with the sizable home dog! The Bengals are on a poor 1-6 ATS run as a road favorite in divisional action. Keep in mind that Cincinnati's home win over the Eagles last week was fueled by 3 Philadelphia interceptions and it was just the 2nd win for the Bengals since September. 8* CLEVELAND BROWNS plus the points early Sunday

NFL Game #114 Sunday - Rickenbach 8* Buffalo Bills (+) vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 1 ET - Another one of the many "snow games" scheduled for Sunday as we are likely to see snow in Cleveland, Green Bay, and Buffalo in this week's NFL action. The snow certainly favors the Bills as, not only are they a home dog here, Buffalo is the #1 rushing team in the league. If they establish their ground game in these conditions then the Steelers could struggle to keep up as Pittsburgh relies so heavily on their vaunted passing attack. Even though the Steelers enter this one on a 3-game winning streak, note that Pittsburgh has gone just 5-9 SU (and covered only 4 of 14 games!) when they enter a game on a winning streak of 2 games or more. Also, the Bills come into this one as the hungrier team as their 2-game winning streak was snapped in a loss at Oakland last week. Buffalo blew a big lead in that game! The Bills are on a 7-3 ATS run when they face a winning team in the 2nd half of a season. Also, Buffalo is on a 14-8 ATS run as an underdog. The Steelers are on a 1-4 (SU and ATS) run against AFC East foes. This is a bit of a "trap game" for Pittsburgh as they got a key win over a Giants team that was 8-3 on the season and the Steelers then close the regular season with three straight games against divisional foes! Tough spot here for Pittsburgh and I love fading the line move too as this one has been on the rise all week and we're now able to get a full +3 with the home dog. 8* BUFFALO BILLS plus the points early Sunday

NFL Game #120 Sunday - Rickenbach 8* Jacksonville Jaguars (+) vs Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET - Jacksonville outgained Denver by over 100 yards last week but lost because they badly lost the turnover battle 3 to 0. The Jaguars have been doing themselves in with turnovers but they continue to statistically outpeform their opponents in most games. Jacksonville hasn't been significantly outgained in a game since October! Yes, I know there is more to a game than just the yardage but, the point is, we're now getting significant line value in fading a Vikings team that certainly has issues of its own. Minnesota is now favored by more than 3 on the road in this game even though the Vikings have lost 6 of their last 7 games and have won of the worst offenses in the league. Minnesota also is 1-4 SU and ATS in road games with a posted total between 38.5 and 42 points. The Vikes are also 1-11 ATS in Games 13 through 16 of a season when they are a road favorite! The Vikings, also in Games 13 through 16 of a season, are 1-11 ATS on the road when facing a team that is off of a SU loss by double digits and that is playing with revenge (Jacksonville lost most recent meeting with Vikes). After playing on a Thursday, Minnesota (even with last week's cover versus Dallas) is just 2-6 ATS the last 8 times. 8* JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS plus the points early Sunday.

RARE Thursday Top - NFL Game #101 Thursday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Oakland Raiders (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:25 ET - The Chiefs continue to win in amazing ways as they won at Atlanta last week despite the Falcons having 32 first downs compared to just 17 for Kansas City. This is a revenge game for Oakland as they lost at home to the Chiefs 26-10 back in mid-October. The Raiders come into this game off of a 38-24 home win versus the Bills but the road team is still 9-2 ATS in Oakland's games this season and my money is on the road dog in this one tonight. The Chiefs are an ugly 3-15 ATS as a home favorite in divisional action. The Raiders are on a 22-8 ATS run as a road dog in divisional action. In games this season where the Oakland line is anywhere between -3 and +3 they have gone 7-1 ATS. Also, in road games with a posted total in a range of 45.5 to 49 points the past three seasons, the Raiders have gone 7-1 ATS. In road games this season Oakland is 5-0 ATS and in their games against teams with a winning record this season the Raiders are 4-0 ATS. The Chiefs are 1-3 ATS at home this season and 1-3 ATS in home games with a posted total in a range of 45.5 to 49 points the past three seasons. Even though the Kansas City defense looks strong based on points allowed this season, keep in mind their yardage allowed ranks them just as low as the Raiders. That said, no true D edge to KC in this one and the edge on offense clearly belongs to Oakland as the Raiders are stronger on the ground and through the air in comparison with the Chiefs. Revenge time in a key AFC West showdown. 10* Top Play OAKLAND RAIDERS plus the points Thursday night

MNF Crusher - NFL Game #377 Monday - Rickenbach 8* Indianapolis Colts (-) @ New York Jets @ 8:30 ET - With Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton both listed as probable for this game, the Colts offense is the key edge in this match-up. Keep in mind, even though Indianapolis lost by 21 at Pittsburgh on Thanksgiving Night, they did not have Luck for that game and were also missing some key personnel on defense. Even in a tough situation like that, the Colts did have more first downs than the Steelers in that game and they were only outgained by 59 yards. The 2 INTs were a difference-maker but now Luck is back for this revenge game against the Jets. Last year Indianapolis hosted the Jets (also on Monday Night Football) and Indy lost 20-7 to New York in a turnover-fueled loss. It is time for the Colts to get some payback tonight and Indianapolis is also invigorated by the Texans loss yesterday as they will be hosting Houston next week. The Colts now very much control their own destiny in the AFC South and they know that includes a "must win" tonight at New York. The Jets are on a 2-7 run and all 7 of those losses have been by at least 3 points. The line here is only in the range of -2 on the Colts and actually the low money line on this game makes that the best option in this one for backing Indy. As a road fave of 3 points or less the Colts have gone 4-0 SU the last 3 seasons and the Jets are 0-3 SU this season. Under Chuck Pagano, Indianapolis has gone 14-2 ATS when off of a SU loss. Under Pagano, the Colts are also 11-3 ATS when facing an opponent off of back to back SU losses. Add all of the above up and you have combined systems of 32-5 (87%) favoring the small road fave in this one. 8* INDIANAPOLIS COLTS Monday Night

Primetime Punisher - NFL Game #375 Sunday - Rickenbach 8* Carolina Panthers (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 8:30 ET - This is a revenge spot for Seattle since the Seahawks didn't get a shot at the Super Bowl last season because they lost to the Panthers at Carolina in January. However, revenge can be over-valued and I feel strongly that is precisely the case here. The Seahawks schedule has been brutal over the past 5 weeks. They were home against Buffalo to start November but then went all the way to the east coast to face New England, then flew across the country to host the Eagles, then flew back to the east coast again to face Tampa Bay and then came back across the country again to host Carolina this week. This is catching up with the Seahawks and I know that last week's loss to the Buccaneers certainly had a lot to with this being a lookahead spot. But it also had to do with all the travel and big games likely catching up with Seattle and it was the 3rd time in the last 6 games that their total offense has been held to 278 yards or less! Now Seattle has to deal with a Carolina defense that, prior to last week's poor effort at Oakland, had allowed 20 points or less in 4 straight games! The Panthers are fired up after rallying back to take the lead on the Raiders only to lose late and though it is the Seahawks with revenge in this match-up, keep in mind it is Carolina who is fighting hard right now to stay alive in the playoff race in the NFC. The Panthers are on a 17-8 ATS run as a road dog and I love having them at more than 7 in this match-up. In games 9 through 12 of a season, the Panthers have gone 8-1 ATS when they are off of a game where they allowed 35 points or more. The Seahawks may get their revenge but I expect this game to be decided by a single possession as it should be an absolutely dogfight given the situation for both clubs. 8* CAROLINA

Non-Conf Game of the Month - NFL Game #370 Sunday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play San Diego Chargers (-) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 4:25 ET - Make no mistake about it, that was a huge win for the Bucs last week as they beat Seattle. However, it's important to consider that the Seahawks were clearly flat for that game. Not only were the Hawks off of a big win over the Eagles (and upset of the Patriots the prior week), they also had a huge game on deck. Seattle was clearly looking ahead to their game this week (an opportunity for playoff revenge) against Carolina. With that said, one can't totally take everything away from the Buccaneers win over the Seahawks last week but, the point is, one should definitely keep it in perspective. Now Tampa Bay is clearly the one that is in a flat spot here as they are off of a huge upset win at home and now had to travel coast to coast to take on a tough Chargers team that is clearly better than their 5-6 record on the season. San Diego has had some tough, tight losses so many are reluctant to back them and that is helping to give late season line value to the Bolts in a spot like this as the line has held at 3.5 in most spots. While both teams have been "up and down" on defense this season, the offensive edge in this match-up clearly belongs to Philip Rivers and company and the Chargers have averaged 32 points per game at home this season while the Bucs are averaging only 21.6 points per game on the road this year. San Diego is 4-1 ATS in their games against teams with a winning record this season and Tampa Bay's recent "surge" on defense has been helped by catching Seattle in a flat spot (and Seahawks offense has struggled at times this season) and facing the the Chiefs and Bears (both have struggled on offense this season). Prior to that, the Bucs allowed 73 points in their two prior games (against Oakland and Atlanta) and those games were in Tampa Bay. In other words, don't be surprised if the Chargers put up a bunch of points on the over-rated Bucs Sunday! 10* Top Play SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Early System Smash - NFL Game #351 Sunday - Rickenbach 8* Denver Broncos (-) @ Jacksonville Jaguars @ 1 ET - The Broncos are fired up after losing in overtime to the Chiefs last week despite having a yardage edge of 464-273 in that game. Even though QB Trevor Siemian is likely to miss this game, Paxton Lynch has already logged some NFL time and he'll do just fine here. The Jaguars have lost 6 straight games and 5 of the 6 defeats have come by at least 5 points. 5 of Denver's 7 wins have come by at least 8 points so if you're expecting the Broncos to win this you should also be expecting them to cover the short number. That said, I definitely like Denver off of a loss and facing a Jacksonville team that is only 2-9 on the season plus has suffered 6 straight losses. The Broncos have won all 3 of their non-divisional road games this season and have gone 3-0 ATS in those games. Denver is also on an 11-5 ATS run when off of a SU loss. The Jaguars are on a long-term ugly 10-24 ATS run as a home dog. Jacksonville is 0-4 SU and ATS in their home games this season. The Broncos are 6-0 ATS when they are on the road and facing a team with a winning percentage under the .250 mark. Combining the above perfect marks in favor of Denver and those against the Jags and you have a 13-0 ATS mark in favor of the Broncos. I'll take it! 8* DENVER

Total of the Week - NFL Game #359/360 Sunday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play OVER the total in New Orleans Saints vs Detroit Lions @ 1 ET - This total has dropped from as high as a 54 down to as low as a 52 and this is offering exceptional line value with the over. I completely understand the line move because the Lions have actually stayed under the total in 5 straight games. However, Detroit's last 4 games have been against Houston, Jacksonville, and Minnesota (twice). That means they have faced a top 5 defense (based on yards allowed) in 4 straight games! Now the Lions get to take advantage of facing one of the worst defenses in the league as they take on the Saints. Of course the problem for Detroit is they are unlikely to stop the high-powered attack of New Orleans in the Superdome. At home this season the Saints are averaging 34 points and 468 yards per game! With this line at 7, my expectation is a 35-28 (or 34-27) type game here and that's why the over is my play here. Note that the over is 4-1 this season (and 17-9 the last 3 seasons) when New Orleans is a favorite. Also, in Saints home games with a posted total of 49.5 or more, the over is a long-term 34-19. In their Thanksgiving Day win over the Vikings, the Lions allowed only 13 points which is the lowest point total they've allowed all season. Of course the Vikes offense is putrid and this opens up another key stat too. The Lions are 12-1 to the over when they are off of a game where they allowed 13 points or less. This is the 1st time it's happened this season and I'll take advantage as Detroit goes from facing one of the league's best defenses to facing one of its worst. 10* Top Play OVER in New Orleans

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Game #302 Thursday - 10* Top Play Minnesota Vikings (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:25 ET - The Cowboys bubble is about to burst and I am going to be along for the ride. Their long ATS streak (some miracle covers in there for sure) finally ended on Thanksgiving Day and now I expect their SU winning streak to end this Thursday. Certainly I will grab the available points with the Vikings but I fully expect the outright win. The Cowboys defense ranks 6th for points allowed but 20th for yardage allowed. Stating that differently, the Dallas defense has been lucky! No two ways about it the Cowboys weakness is their defense and the Boys were outgained by a 505-353 margin in last week's non-covering win over the Redskins. The Vikings defense ranks #3 for yardage and #2 for points this season. Minnesota's D is going to "bring it" on Thursday night after hearing all week about the Cowboys and how great of a team they are. The Vikes are relishing this opportunity to get after Dak Prescott and to also stuff Ezekiel Elliott. The Cowboys are one of the worst teams in the league at getting pressure on the quarterback and, when Sam Bradford is not pressured, the Vikings QB can run a decent offense for Minnesota. Certainly they can get the job done against an over-confident and porous Dallas D that is one of the worst in the league against the pass. The Vikes are on a 9-3 ATS run as a home dog and are fired up after the way they lost at Detroit on Thanksgiving Day with a late INT by Bradford in the wrong end of the field. It was an egregious error that he and the Vikes want to atone for here. Dallas is on a 1-6 ATS run in Thursday games. Minnesota is 11-3 ATS when off of a divisional game. The Vikings are also 12-4 ATS when they are a dog facing a team with a winning record. The Vikes are also 13-2 ATS as dogs of less than 6 points when facing a team that is off of a SU win. 10* Top Play MINNESOTA VIKINGS Thursday Night

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #276 Monday - 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Green Bay Packers @ 8:30 ET - The Packers are struggling badly with 4 straight losses as Green Bay has given up an average of 38.3 points per game. Traveling to face an Eagles team that is off of a road loss but is 4-0 SU and ATS at home this season isn't going to help matters for the Pack. Philadelphia has allowed a TOTAL of only 38 points in their 4 home games this season whereas Green Bay is allowing an AVERAGE of 38 points per game in their last 4 games. As you can see, this is a case of two teams that, though close in the standings, are truly in two different places right now. As an away dog, the Packers are on a 2-9 ATS run. As a non-divisional home favorite, the Eagles are on a 7-3 ATS run. Philadelphia also has revenge from a 53-20 loss at Green Bay two years ago. That was a turnover-fueled defeat as the Eagles were actually only outgained by 46 yards in that game. Green Bay comes into this game having not forced a single turnover in 3 of their last 4 games. Conversely, the Eagles are off of a rare game at Seattle where they did not force a turnover but they forced an average of 2 per game in their 4 prior games. Look for Philly to improve to 5-1 (SU and ATS) in Monday Night games as they take advantage of hosting a reeling Packers team whose defense has a yard per point average of only 12.9 which ranks them near the very bottom of the league. Eagles D is near the top with an 18.0 ypp. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Sunday Night Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Game #272 Sunday - 10* Top Play Denver Broncos (-) vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:30 ET - The Chiefs are not nearly as good as their record shows. In fact, I am kicking myself a bit for not playing against them last week but I felt so strongly about this fantastic situation that was coming up that I decided to hold off. But the fact is that, of the 32 NFL teams, the Chiefs rank a solid 5th for points allowed but 25th for yardage allowed. As you can see from those numbers, the Kansas City defense has been fortunate - to put it mildly! I expect the fade that started with last week's home loss to Tampa Bay (KC was outgained by nearly 100 yards) to continue through the remainder of this season. The Chiefs are taking on a Denver defense that ranks 5th in the league for yardage allowed and also the Broncos are well-rested as they are off of their bye week last week. To top it off - in terms of how strong this situation is - Denver also big-time revenge for the home loss to the Chiefs last November. The Broncos now will be facing Kansas City twice in a span of 5 weeks but they had to wait over a year to get this opportunity at revenge. The Broncos are known for dominating the Chiefs and had won 7 straight in the series (average margin of victory was 9 points) before last year's November home loss to Kansas City. The Broncos are 18-4 ATS when playing with at least 2 weeks of rest between games. The Chiefs are 1-9 ATS when they are off of an outright loss as a favorite and are then facing an opponent with revenge. That puts a 27-5 ATS (84%) mark in favor of the home fave in this one. The Broncos have been able to heal up over the bye week while the Chiefs have some significant injuries on both sides of the ball that are impacting them for this game. Look for a home rout in this one as the revenge angle is a big one here. 10* Top Play DENVER BRONCOS minus the points on Sunday night

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #269 Sunday - 10* Top Play Carolina Panthers (+) @ Oakland Raiders @ 4:25 ET - Tremendous line value here as the Panthers, though they did hang on for the win last Thursday against the Saints, blew a big lead. On the other side of this equation, you have the Raiders who rallied for a very fortunate win against the Texans on Monday night. So, not only does Carolina have extra rest in front of this game and Oakland is on short rest, you also have a situation where the perception is flawed here based upon the way the games involving these two teams played out in the latter stages last week. Playing the road team in Raiders games this season would have netted you a 9-1 (90%) record thusfar. The road team in Oakland games just continues to get the cash nearly every week. That factor also bodes well with the fact that Carolina has gone 16-8 ATS as a road dog in their last 24 games. Even though the Panthers offense didn't perform well last week their defense certainly continued it's recent resurgence and Carolina's defense ranks them a significant edge over the Raiders defense. Oakland's D is among the worst in the league while the Panthers have allowed just 326.5 yards per game in their last 4 games. After big games in back to back weeks (division rival Denver and then a MNF game versus a division-leading Texans team), the Raiders defense is likely to fall flat here after rising to the occasion in back to back weeks. A lot of points are expected here (per the odds makers) and Oakland is 1-10 ATS in home games with a posted total of 49.5 points or more. Also, a straight-up Carolina win is not needed here to get the cash but note that the Panthers are actually 9-0 SU when they are off of a win against a division rival. Also, in games 9 through 12 of a season, Oakland is 2-18 ATS when they are facing a non-divisional opponent who is off of a home game. That means we have combined factors of 37-3 (93%) working in favor of the road dog in this one. I'll take it. 10* Top Play CAROLINA PANTHERS plus the points Sunday afternoon

Early Ugly Underdog - Rickenbach NFL Game #261 Sunday - 8* San Francisco 49'ers (+) @ Miami Dolphins @ 1 ET - Only the Browns have been worse than the 49'ers this season but I see significant line value in this spot in Week 12 given the situation. Miami has won 5 straight games and they are off of back to back wins on the West Coast at Los Angeles and San Diego. Now the Dolphins come all the way back east to return home for just a single game as they have a road trip to a tougher foe (Baltimore) on deck. I just can't see Miami being fully focused in this spot and note that each of their last 4 wins have come by 7 points or less. The Dolphins have averaged only 283.7 yards of offense per game in their last 3 games and they'll have trouble getting much of a margin against a Niners team that has started to move the ball better as QB Colin Kaepernick has started to get in rhythm after the bye week. San Francisco's D is certainly still an issue but Miami's offense has not been impressive of late. The Dolphins are known for overlooking weaker opponents at this time of year as they have gone 2-8 ATS when facing teams with a losing record in the second half of a season. Miami is also 0-7 ATS as a non-conference home favorite of more than 4 points. Also, the Fish have gone 1-9 ATS when, in games 9 through 12 of a season, they have a winning record and are off of a SU win as an underdog and are now a home favorite. This truly is a classic flat spot. As for San Francisco, the 49'ers are 10-2 ATS as a non-divisional road dog of more than 3 points when they are off of a non-divisional game. Taking all of the above into consideration, that means we have combined systems of 34-5 (87%) ATS in favor of the Niners in this one. I'll take it. 8* SAN FRANCISCO plus the big points in early Sunday NFL action

Early Chalk Smash - Rickenbach NFL Game #251 Sunday - 8* San Diego Chargers (-) @ Houston Texans @ 1 ET - The point spread on this game is in the 2 to 3 point range and yet the Chargers on the money line are only in the -135 range so my advice on this one is to play it on the money line if you can. I could probably sum up this write-up with two things. One is that the Texans are 5-0 at home and the Chargers are 1-4 on the road this season and yet Houston is a home dog...think about that one for a second! Secondly, the key match-up edge is Philip Rivers over Brock Osweiler! So, the point of the above is that nothing is that SDG (1-4 away) is favored on the road over HOU (5-0 home) with good reason. Don't fall for the trap and take the Texans who have one of the worst QBs in the NFL. Yes, Osweiler and the Texans should have beaten Oakland in Mexico Monday Night (and I liked them in that situation) but this is a bad spot for them on a short week and facing a hungry Chargers team coming off of their bye week. Rivers and Company can't wait to get back on the field after their turnover-plagued home loss to Miami two weeks ago. San Diego had a 29-17 edge in first downs in that loss to the Dolphins. The Texans are 1-4 ATS and SU as a home dog of 3 points or less. Houston also is on a 2-4 ATS and SU run against AFC West opponents while San Diego has an absolutely incredible long-term mark of 27-4 ATS in their games against teams from the AFC South. The Chargers head coach Mike McCoy is 10-0 ATS when his team has a sub-.500 record and is of a SU loss and is now facing a team with a winning record. That system fits here. Also, another perfect ATS system is in place here. In games 9 through 12 of a season, San Diego is 10-0 ATS when they are facing a non-divisional opponent that is off of a SU loss but has a winning record on the season. That means we have a combined 20-0, 100% ATS factor in favor of the road fave in this one. Lay it. 8* SAN DIEGO minus the short number in early Sunday action

TNF Top Play - Rickenbach NFL Game #112 Thursday - 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts (+) vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:30 ET - No one wants the Colts here and everyone is lining up on the Steelers because of the Andrew Luck situation at QB. Of course having Scott Tolzien at QB is a huge stepdown from having Luck under center but, as a contrarian, I love fading the line move in situations like this. The Colts are now very nearly a double digit home dog in this game and they are going to bring a huge effort as they try to rally around the absence of Luck tonight. So many times, in the first game without a star player, you will see the rest of the team step up and other individuals tend to play their best games of the year in situations like this. Look for the Colts to indeed "rally the troops" for this one and they certainly have plenty of motivation. Not only is this the Thanksgiving Day primetime game under the lights, the Colts were demolished at Pittsburgh each of the past two seasons so Indianapolis is very happy to have this game at home and have a shot at home revenge after getting embarrassed by the Steelers each of the past two seasons. Also, in Sunday's win over the Titans, the Colts defense hung tough (and their D has improved in recent games) and coupling that with the Texas loss to Oakland Monday Night and Indianapolis is rejuvenated by their current positioning in the AFC South. The Colts have a fantastic long-term history in Thursday games with a 13-1 SU mark and 11-1 ATS mark. Also, the Steelers are off of a divisional win (albeit against the lowly Browns) and Pittsburgh is only 3-6 SU and 1-5 ATS when off of a win over a divisional foe. The highly motivated Colts will be flying all over the field in this one and I see this game being a one-possession game all the way through which means huge value with the big points. 10* Top Play INDIANAPOLIS

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Game #109 Thursday - 8* Washington Redskins (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:30 ET - The Cowboys amazing streak has continued but this is the perfect spot for it to end. The Dallas streak actually started all the way back in Week 2 of the season when they went into Washington and stole a win from the Redskins. Or, you could say, the Skins gave it to them. Either way, I haven't forgotten that game and the Redskins surely haven't either as they had the lead in the 4th quarter and had a 1st and goal situation and were getting ready to go up two scores and basically salt the game away. Instead, Washington QB Kirk Cousins made a rare mistake in a crucial spot and threw a pick in the end zone. That changed everything and the rest is now history. Now we get a case where we have a revenging dog getting a full TD against a Dallas team that has performed poorly on Thanksgiving Day each of the past two seasons. This is a great spot for a hungry Washington team as they seek to avenge that loss. The Redskins do a great job with their pass rush while the Cowboys don't be surprised if that ends up being a difference maker here. The Redskins have a road trip to Arizona on deck and that is significant in that this is the first of back to back road games for Washington and the Skins are 9-0 ATS when they are a dog of more than 3 points in the first of back to back road games. The Redskins are also 9-0 ATS when they are on the road and facing a divisional opponent that has a .666 or better winning percentage on the season. These systems combine for an 18-0, 100% ATS mark and I'll gladly grab the generous points here with the revenging road dog. 8* WASHINGTON

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #108 Thursday - 8* Detroit Lions (-) vs Minnesota Vikings @ 12:30 PM ET - Waiting until Thanksgiving morning has paid off has this line has dropped from the Lions being as high as 3 point fave all the way down to where Detroit is now as low as a pick'em. Although the Vikings are off of a win versus Arizona Sunday, that game was in Minnesota and they are now back on the road and they are 9-20-1 SU in their last 30 road games. Also, the Vikes were very fortunate to put up 30 points on the Cardinals as Minny only amassed 217 yards of offense in the game. The Cards actually had 24 first downs (compared to just 16 for the Vikings) in that game. Detroit has been great on Thanksgiving Day the past 3 seasons and this is a big game for NFC North supremacy. Look for the Lions to add to their 3-0 ATS run in Thanksgiving Day run - average cover of 20 points per game! The Vikings had lost 4 straight games prior to last week's win. Even though the Lions win last week was not that impressive they were clearly looking ahead to this game and the Detroit defense did produce a 3rd straight strong game. That is significant because, in terms of comparing these offenses, the Lions certainly have the edge there as the Vikings rank dead last in the league for yardage per game. Detroit is 12-0 ATS when they are a home favorite of less than 4 points and are coming off of back to back SU wins. Lions have won 2 straight and 5 of 6 while Minnesota has lost 4 of 5. It is a case of hot versus not and Detroit has the edge of also being very familiar with playing on Thanksgiving each year and they've excelled in this game in recent seasons. The Lions do it again here and bring that ATS run to 13-0, 100% ATS. 8* DETROIT LIONS 

MNF 100% Never Lost System Smash - Rickenbach NFL Game #475 Monday - 8* Houston Texans (+) vs Oakland Raiders @ Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, MX @ 8:30 ET - The Raiders are off of a bye week but they had been rolling and, a lot of times, the last thing a team wants is a bye week when they are in a good rhythm like Oakland was. Here's the 'kicker' to this though: Raiders had covered each of their 3 games prior to the bye and the last 13+ seasons (dating all the way back to the start of the 2003 season) when Oakland enters a game on a 3-0 ATS run they have failed to cover their next game every single time. There have been 10 such occurrences and the Raiders are 0-10 ATS. The 2002 season was the year the Raiders made it to the Super Bowl (and, interestingly, also their most recent year in the post-season) and that was also the Texans first year in the NFL. With that said, once that inaugural Texans season went into the books with the Raiders losing in that year's Super Bowl, since that time, this system is a 10-0, 100% perfect ATS play against the Raiders. Certainly in looking at this match-up, Oakland has the better offense but there is also no argument that the Texans have the better defense. Houston has allowed an average of only 317.4 yards per game and that ranks them among the top teams in the NFL. The Texans offense has been able to get the ground game going of late as they have run for at least 140 yards in 3 of their last 4 games and that will make the Raiders D have to respect the run. Even though Houston QB Brock Osweiler is certainly one of the weaker QBs in the NFL, he'll have opportunities to attack downfield through the air against a Raiders pass defense that ranks as one of the worst in the league as they are allowing 283.2 passing yards per game this season. We're getting some significant points here with a solid defensive-minded team and I look for that aforementioned record for Oakland to drop to 0-11 ATS as they once again fail to get a 4th straight cover. A couple of more ATS notes here. This is essentially an away game for both teams since its being played in Mexico City and the Raiders are 1-9 ATS when they are away from home and off of back-to-back SU wins. Oakland is also 0-6 ATS in Monday Night games against non-divisional opponents. As for the Texans, with their win last week at Jacksonville, they are now 7-2 SU and ATS in their last 9 November games. 8* HOUSTON TEXANS Monday Night

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #473 Sunday - 8* Green Bay Packers (+) @ Washington Redskins @ 8:30 ET - When a team has seemingly hit rock bottom and then gets a marquee match-up under the national TV primetime lights, it is often the best time to make a play on them. Not only are the Packers getting the Sunday night TV game this week but they've got the big Monday night TV game next week. That is noteworthy here because I love backing a team off of an embarrassing loss as a fave (GB lost 47-25 at Tenn LW) and the Packers are a perfect 8-0 ATS their last 8 before a MNF game. The Packers are also 8-1-1 ATS their last 10 against the Redskins and that includes a big 35-18 win in the Wild Card round of last season's playoffs. Certainly that makes this a revenge spot for Washington but the Redskins are catching an angry Packers team off of 3 straight losses. The last time that GB entered a game off of 3 straight losses they were at Minnesota last season and they crushed the Vikings 30 to 13. Washington may also get caught peeking ahead here. Yes, this is a revenge game so that would seem impossible but the fact is the Redskins have their most hated rival, the Cowboys, on deck in just a few days on Thanksgiving Day. In games 9 through 12 of a season, Washington has gone 1-12 ATS when they are a home favorite and off of a win (SU and ATS) in their prior game. Overall, the Redskins are also 1-6 ATS when in the 2nd of back to back home games. Combining all the ATS trends noted above we have a combined 34-3-1 (92%) ATS mark favoring the road dog in this one. I'll take it! 8* GREEN BAY PACKERS Sunday Night

NFC Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #471 Sunday - 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 4:25 ET - The Seahawks are off of a huge revenging win at New England in the Sunday night game. Keep in mind that wasn't just "any revenge" either as it was Super Bowl revenge from the 2015 Super Bowl loss to the Patriots! Not only that but Seattle had to go coast to coast to get it. After that huge win and with another road trip to the East Coast on deck, this is a tough spot for the Seahawks. There is big value with the points as Seattle has only two wins by more than 7 points out of their 9 games this season. Also, the Eagles have not lost a game by more than 7 points this entire season. Philadelphia did, however, accomplish something last week that they haven't done all season and that is they won a game by single digits. That was a tight game and Philly got the win over a good Falcons team. The Eagles defense continues to be dominating as they've allowed 303 yards or less in 6 of their last 8 games! Statistically these teams are very nearly equal so Seattle should be about a field goal favorite at home but instead they're laying around a TD in this one and, given the situational disadvantages to the Seahawks, the big line is certainly not warranted. In other words, big value with the dog in this one. In games 9 through 12 of a season, Philadelphia has gone 12-2 ATS when they are on the road and playing with revenge against a non-divisional opponent. The Eagles lost to the Hawks in Philly in 2014. Philadelphia has also covered 14 in a row (14-0, 100% ATS!) as a road dog of more than 4 points when playing with revenge against an NFC opponent. In games 9 through 12 of a season, Seattle has gone 1-7 ATS when off of an outright win as a underdog and facing a non-divisional opponent. That means we have edges of 33-3 (92%) ATS favoring the Eagles in this spot which truly is an excellent situation. 10* PHILADELPHIA

NFL Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #467/468 Sunday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Rams vs Miami Dolphins @ 4:05 ET - On the surface this looks like an ugly game but I expect a huge effort here from the Rams as everyone will step up their game to support rookie QB Jared Goff as he finally makes his first NFL start. Even though Los Angeles hasn't been putting up points on the scoreboard, prior to last week the Rams had actually averaged 270.4 passing yards per game in their 5 prior games. Goff's teammates will also be wanting to step up for their rookie QB and that includes the running backs as they look to exploit a Dolphins defense that ranks as one of the worst in the league against the run. Also, the Miami D has allowed 284 passing yards per game in their 4 road games this season so don't be surprised if the Rams move the ball a lot better than many are expecting here. Miami has found a way to put points on the board and they have averaged 29 points per game their last 4 games. 7 of the Dolphins last 8 games have totaled at least 45 points and, with the Rams having "nothing to lose" here as they go into the "Goff experiment" I look for them to be willing to open up the playbook with the young QB and surprise a Miami defense that has had it's share of recent struggles in a situation like this. The over is 4-0 the past two seasons seasons when the Dolphins are playing a 2nd straight game away from home. After the big win at San Diego last week, the Dolphins remained in California for this 2nd straight away game and the lack of a "normal" routine this past week will again hurt the Miami defense. 10* OVER in Los Angeles

Early Contrarian - Rickenbach NFL Game #463 Sunday - 8* Baltimore Ravens (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 1 ET - The Cowboys have had an incredible run but now face arguably the best defense in the NFL. The Ravens also have extra rest as they last played on Thursday and that was a blowout win over the hapless Browns. Baltimore is on a 7-1 ATS run when off of a win over a division rival. The Ravens are also on a 7-1 ATS run when off of facing the Browns. Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett has a 4-11 ATS mark as a home favorite when facing a team off of a SU win. Garrett also has a 2-7 ATS mark as a favorite of more than 3 points when facing a team with a winning record. The Cowboys are only 1-5 ATS when facing a team off of back to back SU and ATS wins. The combined ATS records above in favor of Baltimore in this match-up per the above: 37-9 (80%). The Ravens have won big and covered the past two weeks against the Steelers and Browns and they stay hot here to finally shut up "America's Team" in "Jerry's World" as the Cowboys get caught looking ahead to their Thanksgiving showdown with the division rival Redskins that is just days away. 8* BALTIMORE

Early Underdog Shocker - Rickenbach NFL Game #457 Sunday - 8* Chicago Bears (+) @ New York Giants @ 1 ET - The Bears are off of an embarrassing 36 to 10 loss at Tampa Bay while the Giants are off of a tight Monday night win over the Bengals by just a single point. In other words, the set up is perfect here for the ugly dog! Chicago's John Fox is 10-2 ATS away from home when his team is off of a straight-up loss by double digits in a game in which they were favored. The Bears did defeat the Giants in Chicago in 2013 in their most recent meeting. That makes this a revenge spot for New York and, in games 9 through 12 of a season, when playing with revenge versus an opponent who is off of an ATS loss by a double digit margin, the Giants have gone 1-10 ATS. Chicago, in games 9 through 12 of a season, have gone 7-1 ATS when off of a SU loss and facing an opponent who is off of back to back SU and ATS wins. Statistically these teams are truly not different at all when you look at yardage stats but the Giants have simply "found a way" and that is why they are 6-3 on the season while the Bears are 2-7 both SU and ATS. The result here when you consider just how equal these teams are is that we're getting extra line value based on market perception. The Giants should perhaps be a 3 point choice based on home field but instead they're laying 7 or 7.5 in this one and that's value for the dog. Based on the angles above we also are testing a combined 27-4 (87%) ATS mark! I'll gladly take that "test"! 8* CHICAGO

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #309 Thursday - 8* New Orleans Saints (+) @ Carolina Panthers @ 8:25 ET - Both teams are looking to bounce back off of tough losses this past Sunday. That said, the value here is with the Saints even though it is the Panthers who are seeking revenge for a loss at New Orleans earlier this season. The fact is that Carolina just isn't the same team it once was. They have faded this season and it hasn't been a fluke. The statistics back it up. With their loss versus Kansas City Sunday, the Panthers have now been held under 350 yards of offense in 3 straight games. It is not just the offense that is having problems either. In their 5 games prior to blowing a huge lead and losing to the Chiefs, the Carolina pass defense was completely exposed as they allowed an average of 347.8 yards per game through the air. The Panthers aren't going to stop a Saints offense that has the #1 aerial attack in the league on a clear night with calm winds in Carolina. The Saints have gone 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog including a perfect 5-0 ATS this season. Also, New Orleans is on a solid 6-2 ATS run in divisional games. The Panthers only 2 ATS wins this season have come with extra rest (once after a Monday night game and once after their bye week). Carolina is 0-6-1 ATS in their other 7 games this season and now the Panthers comes into this Thursday game on short rest. Coincidentally, the other time Carolina entered a game on short rest this season was when they faced the Saints in October after a Monday night game. That didn't go so well as the Panthers gave up 523 yards in a game that Carolina only lost by 3 but that easily could have been decided by much more than that. The Saints just have too much offense for a "scuffling" Panthers team this season and, additionally, the New Orleans defense has shown some improvement as the Saints have held 4 of their last 6 opponents to 359 yards or less. 8* NEW ORLEANS Thursday

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #275 Monday - 8* Cincinnati Bengals (Pick'em) @ New York Giants @ 8:30 ET - The Giants are off of a 3 straight wins (SU and ATS) but they beat the Ravens on a very late TD, faced a Rams team whose offense is pathetic, and then were fortunate to get by the Eagles as they were outgained by 141 yards in last week's home win. The Bengals are off of a bye week and are finally playing their first November game. Coming off of a frustrating tie in London against the Redskins, there is no doubt the Bengals have been "chomping at the bit" to get back on the field and make up for that frustrating result two weeks ago. Both of these teams have had overall tough seasons thusfar on the defensive side of the ball but the key variables that favor the Bengals are coming off the bye week, hungry off a frustrating tie game, the better offense (Cincy has a ground game and the Giants don't), and playing much better mistake-free football in terms of turnovers compared with New York. The Giants have turned the ball over 11 times in their 4 home games this season. By comparison, the Bengals have a total of only 3 turnovers in their last 5 games and QB Andy Dalton has not thrown a pick in 4 of his last 5 games. Cincinnati is on a 17-8 ATS run in games against the NFC East. Also, the Bengals have won 6 of their last 8 non-conference match-ups. The Giants are on a 1-4 run (SU and ATS) in Monday night games. Also, the Giants have gone 8-19 SU in home games where they are a dog of 3 points or less. Based on the line of pick'em in this game we just need Cincy to get the win and they certainly should do just that. With their loss at Minnesota earlier this season on MNF, the Giants are now 0-5 ATS when they are an underdog on Monday night football. The Bengals are on a 12-2 ATS run when they are off of a non-conference game and now facing a non-divisional opponent. 8* CINCINNATI Monday Night 

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #273 Sunday - 8* Seattle Seahawks (+) @ New England Patriots @ 8:30 PM ET - The Patriots seem to be head and shoulders above the rest of the league since Tom Brady returned but a closer look shows that, even though they are off of their bye week and have won 4 straight, this could be the week they get tripped up. The Pats have not faced a team that currently has a winning record since Brady returned. The combined record of the 4 teams is currently 11-23-1. The teams included Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Buffalo. The only team they faced that currently is at .500 on the season is Pittsburgh and the Patriots were lucky as they caught the Steelers sans Ben Roethlisberger! Now Sunday night New England will finally get a test as they face a 5-2-1 Seahawks team. Sure Seattle did not impress on Monday night against the Bills but, of course, they were looking ahead to this game! This is a Super Bowl rematch! The Seahawks lost to the Patriots on February 1, 2015 and they've been waiting for this shot at redemption for nearly two full years now! I look for the highly motivated Hawks to make the most of it and, if they do fall short, it should be 7 or less. Seattle has a strong defense and also is getting their passing game back into high gear as Russell Wilson has gotten healthier. Head coach Pete Carroll has led his team to an incredible 13-1 ATS mark when they are an underdog playing with revenge. Also, in weeks 10 through 13 the past two seasons, the Patriots only covered 2 of 7 games. New England is on a long-term run of only 14-21 ATS when playing 2 weeks or more of rest. In other words, the "benefit" of a bye week hasn't been enough to overcome the big spreads that the Pats often are involved with in a situation like this. The Sunday night game looks like another one of those "inflated" spots and I expect the upset here or a loss to come by only a single possession. The Seahawks are so hungry for this opportunity and the Patriots finally are facing a true challenge for the first time since Brady came back. This should be a fantastic, tight, Super Bowl rematch! 8* SEATTLE SEAHAWKS Sunday night

Non-Conf Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Game #272 Sunday - 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (-) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 PM ET - Beautiful set-up here and one that I have had my eyes on for quite some time. The Cowboys have now won and covered 7 straight games while the Steelers have now lost and failed to cover 3 straight games. The key in looking at these two teams is that Pittsburgh is very hungry, at home, and has Ben Roethlisberger ready to go in his 2nd game back with the rust shaken off last week. Dallas has been fortunate with playing a much easier schedule in comparison with the Steelers. The Cowboys have gone 2-1 in the NFC East games (but easily could (should!) be 0-3 in those games. Outside of their division they have gone 5-0 but not a single one of those teams has a winning record and 3 of the games have come against the 3 worst teams in the league (Cleveland, San Francisco, Chicago). The combined record of the 5 teams Dallas has played outside of their division is 10-31-1 and, again, I reiterate they easily could be 0-3 in their division. They did lose to the Giants but got very lucky to beat Redskins (Washington was going into the end zone to make it a two possession game in 4th quarter when disaster struck) and also lucky to beat Eagles (Philly had huge lead and made questionable coaching decisions in game eventually won by Dallas in OT). This is the beginning of a tough stretch in the schedule for the Cowboys and with the Tony Romo/Dak Prescott controversy about to reach a fever pitch, you are about to see Dallas implode over the remainder of this season. Just look at their remaining schedule and you'll see what I am talking about. But here his is our opportunity to get in on the "ground floor" of this implosion because it starts today with having to travel to face a fired up Steelers team that was considered a prime Super Bowl contender before this season started. Keep in mind, the Roethlisberger injury certainly hurt them as they were 4-1 on the year going into the game in which he got hurt. Look for him to have a big game today as the Cowboys pass defense has been susceptible at times this season. They allowed an average of 320.3 passing yards per game against Green Bay, Chicago, and Washington. Dallas is only 10-12 ATS in games where the line is between +3 and -3 and the Cowboys are also on a long-term 10-17 ATS run in games against the AFC North. The Steelers are 6-1 SU and ATS when they are a home favorite of 3 points or less. Also, Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU (and 4-1 ATS) when they are off of a loss against a division rival. Off of a tough loss at Baltimore last week (outgained Ravens) look for the Steelers to bounce back as they improve on their 12-4 record in games against teams with a winning record. The home team will be at its best for this game while you see the Cowboys finally get knocked off of their perch as they're exposed for their fortunate schedule and lucky early-season bounces of the ball. 10* Top Play PITTSBURGH STEELERS Sunday

AFC Total of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #267/268 Sunday - 10* Top Play OVER in San Diego Chargers vs Miami Dolphins @ 4 PM ET - The Chargers linebacking corps continues to deal with a cluster of injuries and this has severely weakened a San Diego defense that allowed 25 points per game last season and is now allowing 27.4 points per game this season. The Dolphins comes into this game with plenty of confidence as they have won 3 straight games and averaged 28.3 points per game in the process. That means that they will enjoy plenty of success against a hobbled Chargers linebacking group as the Dolphins attack the middle of the field. The key to this play however is the fact that Miami has little chance of enjoying success against Philip Rivers and Company. Rivers is one of the elite QBs in the NFL and he has helped lead the Chargers to 34 points per game in their 4 home games this season. In their final home game last season, San Diego put up 30 points on the Dolphins while eclipsing the 300 mark in passing yards. Miami will again struggle to stop the San Diego attack. While it looks like the Dolphins pass defense has been performing well recently, keep in mind they faced 3 of the worst passing offenses in the league (Tennessee, New York Jets, and Buffalo) and in their other recent game they faced Pittsburgh but knocked starting QB Ben Roethlisberger out of the game. That said, looking back at their first 4 games this season (and even though they faced the pathetic Browns once), Miami allowed 272.5 passing yards per game. The Chargers come into this game having averaged 318.8 passing yards per game in their last 5 games not against teams named the Broncos - Denver #1 in pass defense this season! The point is San Diego should be able to move the ball at will against the Miami D and the Dolphins O will enjoy plenty of success against a Chargers defense hurt (literally!) by injuries. Also, the over is 6-1 in Chargers games played on grass this season with the lone under coming when they hosted Denver! The over is also 4-1 in Miami's games played on grass this season with the lone under coming in the game when they knocked Roethlisberger out of the contest. 10* OVER in San Diego Sunday 

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #255 Sunday - 8* Denver Broncos (+) @ New Orleans Saints @ 1 PM ET - Of course, without a shadow of a doubt, the Saints have the better offense in this match-up. However, defense can certainly win football games and the Broncos have long proven that to be the case. Also, the fact is, New Orleans has one of the worst defenses in the league so don't be surprised if Denver enjoys plenty of success on offense in this one. The Broncos come into this game very hungry after losing badly at Oakland on Sunday night. Denver, even after losing that game as a 1 point road dog, is still 8-2 ATS their last 10 games as an underdog. As for the Saints, they are off of a blowout win over the 49'ers but it was fueled by turnovers. The Niners turned the ball over 4 times and New Orleans managed to win the game by 18 points despite allowing San Francisco to gain nearly 500 yards of offense. The Broncos are on a 14-6 ATS run in non-conference action. Also, Denver has a bye week on deck so they certainly are going to "leave it all on the field" at New Orleans Sunday as the defending Super Bowl champs don't want to go into the bye week on an 0-2 skid. The Saints are on a 7-16 ATS run as a favorite. Also, when the Saints enter a game off of 2 or more consecutive wins, they've lost 3 of the last 4. New Orleans has a big game on deck Thursday with division rival (and defending NFC champ) Carolina. The Saints are only 4-5 SU their last 9 in the game before facing the Panthers but the bigger story there is only 1 of those 4 wins came by more than 3 points. Look for New Orleans to struggle to get past the Broncos in this one and, if they do win, expect it to be by a field goal or less although certainly I am making this play with expectation of an outright upset. 8* DENVER BRONCOS Sunday

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #110 Thursday - 8* Baltimore Ravens (-) vs Cleveland Browns @ 8:25 ET - At first glance this may seem like a good spot to grab the big points with the Browns. After all, the Ravens are off of a big win over the rival Steelers Sunday and it would be easy for Baltimore to overlook a Cleveland team that is 0-9. However, the reason I am going against the common though processes with this play is because of a couple key factors. The Ravens, by virtue of their win versus Pittsburgh last week, are tied for first place with the Steelers in the AFC North and this game against the Browns is a divisional game. The other key factor is that the Browns upset the Ravens as TD underdogs last season in Baltimore! Rest assured, the Ravens haven't forgotten about losing to Cleveland the last time they hosted them at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore. In John Harbaugh's 9 years with the Ravens they are 8-1 SU at Cleveland and tonight they are looking to improve to 8-1 SU at home against the Browns. As you can see, Harbaugh's Ravens have dominated the Browns and I look for them to get revenge for that lone home loss to Cleveland which was the first one since 2007. After opening up as high as a 10.5 this line has dropped to an 8 as of early gameday morning and this is offering excellent line value to the revenging home fave. The Ravens did win at Cleveland earlier this season but they allowed the Browns to jump out to a big, early lead and then had to rally back for the win. You can bet that the Ravens don't want to let that happen again and they'll come out fired up from the opening kickoff in this game. Baltimore is 6-1 ATS when off of a win against a division rival. Cleveland is 0-5 ATS when they are a divisional road dog of more than 7 points. The Browns also are 0-7 ATS when on the road and facing a divisional foe with revenge. Yes, the Ravens did get their revenge already on the road against Cleveland twice already (once late last season and once earlier this season) but this is the first time they have hosted the Browns since that early season home loss last year. It's payback time and I'll test that combined 12-0 ATS mark in favor of the home favorite here. 8* BALTIMORE Thursday

MNF Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #473 Monday - 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 8:30 ET - The ability to get a full TD here with a dangerous underdog in a strong situation is raising this pick to Top Play rating for me. Yes, Seattle is a tough place to play and has a raucous crowd but 2 of their 3 home wins this season have come by just 2 points. Also, since their bye week in early October, the Seahawks have been outgained in each of their last 3 games. Seattle went 1-1-1 in this stretch with the lone win by just 2 points over Atlanta. Also, it is worth noting that the Seahawks most recent trip to the Super Bowl was a loss in February 2015 to the Patriots. Up next for Seattle is a trip to New England. It's impossible for Seattle coach Pete Carroll and company to not be "peeking ahead" a bit to that game. The Seahawks are 3-8 ATS in games played in Weeks 5 through 9 the past 3 seasons. The Bills are 7-3 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Buffalo is also a perfect 3-0 ATS (and SU!) their last 3 against the NFC West and also a perfect 6-0 ATS (and SU!) the last 6 times they have entered a game off of back to back losses. That's a 9-0, 100% run that supports an outright upset here and I am grabbing the points here. Look for the Bills rushing ability (with LeSean McCoy now healthier) to be a difference maker here as they are averaging 154 rushing yards per game (compared to Seattle's 81.4 per game on the ground). With solid defense (allowed 16.2 points per game their last 5 games prior to bad loss to NE) and a strong ground game, the Bills have the right recipe for hanging tough with the Seahawks at CenturyLink Field in Seattle. 10* BUFFALO BILLS Monday Night

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #472 Sunday - 8* Oakland Raiders (-) vs Denver Broncos @ 8:30 ET - This is another contrarian play of mine as you will likely see most people lining up on Denver here as they just don't believe in Oakland yet. The fact is that the Raiders are for real and they also have a bye week on deck and this is their only home game between the home games on October 16th and November 27th. That is a span of 6 weeks so, undoubtedly, Raider Nation is going to be going absolutely nuts for this home night game against a division rival who just also happens to be the defending Super Bowl champs. The point is that this is THE GAME for Oakland this season and they are coming off of a game where they won on the road and held a yardage edge of 626 to 270. Yes the Raiders are starting to put it all together and they also want to make amends for the fact that they had their worst game of the year (to Kansas City) in their most recent home game three weeks ago. The Broncos rank 27th in the league on offense based on yardage. Their defense is the only reason they're still having a solid season and that D has also helped lead to points for Denver. The fact is that, statistically, this is a challenged Broncos offense. Yes they hold the D edge here over Oakland but the Raiders have a huge edge on offense in addition to having the home field edge for this big divisional match-up. I realize Oakland is only 1-2 SU (and 0-3 ATS) at home this season but this is going to be a wild atmosphere at the Coliseum tonight and the Raiders come in having won 5 of their last 6 games overall. The Broncos are on a 1-7 ATS run when off of a win against a division rival and they are off of back to back revenge-fueled wins over Houston (revenge against former QB Osweiler and head coach Kubiak's former team) and over San Diego (revenge for loss to division rival two weeks prior). In games where the Raiders are +3 to -3 this season, they have gone 5-1 ATS. Look for more of the same in this game that is priced as a "pick'em" match-up for the Sunday night game. 8* OAKLAND

Non-Conf Total of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Game #467/468 Sunday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Green Bay Packers vs Indianapolis Colts @ 4:25 ET - Look for both teams to move the ball up and down the field throughout this game. Considering that it is a November game at Lambeau Field the weather conditions couldn't be any better. The high today is expected to be in the upper 60s in Green Bay with light winds and clear skies. Simply a fantastic day and even though it will cool down once the sun starts going down, you simply couldn't ask for better weather conditions in Wisconsin in November! So weather won't limit the offenses here, what about the defenses? That is also unlikely. The Colts have given up an average of 28.8 points per game this season. The Packers defensive numbers have been helped by facing 4 of the worst offenses in the league: Jacksonville, Minnesota, the Giants, and Chicago. In their other 3 games the Packers have allowed an average of 30 points per game and there is no reason each team shouldn't get to the 28 to 31 point range in this game which will make for an easy over. The Packers have thrown the ball an average of 45 times per game in their last 4 games while running the ball an average of only 22 times per game their last 3 games. The Colts, led by Andrew Luck at QB and with T.Y. Hilton back at WR for this game, are also very much a pass-heavy team. Of course you want less running and a lot of passing with a play on the over and I expect both Packers QB Aaron Rodgers and Luck to be attacking downfield throughout this game as both defenses have plenty of question marks in the secondary. The Colts game stayed under the total last week but previously Indy was 6-1 to the over this season. Also, Indy is certainly going to be pushing hard all the way to the final whistle in this one as they have their bye week on deck. As an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points the Colts have gone 7-2 to the over. Indianapolis is also on a 13-4 run to the over in games played on a grass field. As a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points, the Colts have gone 31-14 to the over. Each of the last 5 games in this series have gone over the total. Look for another one here. 10* OVER in Green Bay

Contrarian Top Play - Rickenbach NFL Game #464 Sunday - Rickenbach NFL 10* Top Play San Francisco 49'ers (+) vs New Orleans Saints @ 4:05 ET - No one will want the 49'ers here but contrarian handicapping is something that has treated me very well in NFL through the years. The key to this play is the situational aspect and the corresponding line value. The Saints are off of a huge win at home as they knocked off Seattle at the Superdome. Now, New Orleans has to try to "get up" for a 49'ers team that has only won one game this season and comes into this week on a 6-game winning streak. Making matters worse for the Saints is that they have games against Denver and Carolina on deck. The Panthers are a division rival who was in the Super Bowl last year. The Broncos won the Super Bowl last year and lost it two years prior to that. The Seahawks were who won the Super Bowl that year over Denver and then Seattle lost the Super Bowl the next year. The point is that New Orleans has a stretch of 4 games here filled with teams that have been among the NFL's elite in recent seasons. In the middle of all this is a trip to the West Coast to face a 49'ers team that has been among the worst in the league this season. If ever there is a spot for the Saints to fall flat this is absolutely it and I feel strongly that San Francisco is ripe to take advantage. The 49'ers will be ready (both mentally and physically) after a much needed bye week. The Niners are on a 10-5 ATS run as a home dog. The Saints per game averages for the offense are 10 points less and 128 yards less when they are on the road compared to when they are home. Also, New Orleans is on an ugly 1-8 ATS skid as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. What is even more amazing about that is that the Saints have lost 7 of those 9 games outright! I definitely would not be surprised to see another outright upset here but certainly the value here is with the big points being offered to the 49'ers. 10* SAN FRANCISCO 

Rickenbach NFL Game #453 Sunday - 8* Detroit Lions (+) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET - Look for the Lions to bounce back off of their first loss since October 2nd. Detroit had won 3 straight before losing by a TD at Houston last week. Part of what keyed the Lions 3-1 run has been winning the turnover battle as they have forced 6 turnovers in their last 4 games while only turning the ball over once in their last 4 games. Unlike Detroit, Minnesota is heading the wrong direction. The Vikings have lost back to back games and been outscored by a combined 41 to 20. Teams have found that the Vikes can be beat by blitzing and forcing Sam Bradford to either get rid of the ball quickly or take the sack. It has been an ugly 2 weeks for the Vikings since their bye and now the resignation of offensive coordinator Norv Turner adds to the unsettling times in Minnesota. The Vikings offense ranks as one of the worst in the league for yardage as they average only 293.3 yards per game. The Lions play this game with double revenge as they lost both games to the Vikings last season. One game was a 9 point defeat and the other was a 10 point defeat but the Lions have closed the gap on the Vikings in recent weeks and that is why there is great line value with underdog Detroit catching about a touchdown here with the current line on this game. Minnesota is on a short week here and they were outgained by 145 yards by the Bears on Monday Night! The Vikings are hungry to respond off of back to back losses but they will struggle with a Lions team that has the better offense in this match-up. Detroit smells "blood in the water" and can pull within a half game of the division leading Vikings and certainly the Lions are going to go "all out" as they have their bye week on deck. 8* DETROIT

Rickenbach NFL Game #455 Sunday - 8* Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ New York Giants @ 1 ET - The Eagles have truly had just one bad game this season and yet they sit at only 4-3 on the year and really need to make a move this week if they're going to remain in contention in the NFC East. The Eagles had a horrible game at Washington that was inexcusable 3 weeks ago. Perhaps they were deflated because of the loss they never should have had against Detroit (tough late fumble was difference) the prior week. However, the Eagles then responded off the loss at Detroit by knocking off Minnesota and Philadelphia has been at their best against quality opposition. They beat Pittsburgh when they were 3-0 and the Vikings when they were 5-0. Though Philly fell short in OT at Dallas last week that was a tough loss as they led the game 20-10 in the third quarter and then the Eagles offense never even got a chance with the football in overtime. Needless to say, Philadelphia is fired up about this week's game and they are always tough on the Giants. In fact, the Eagles have covered 8 of their last 9 visits to New York! Also, Philly has beaten the Giants in both meetings each of the past two years. New York is off of their bye week but they've lost off of their bye week each of the last two seasons and the Giants are known for late season fades with a 33-60 ATS mark in November games! Also, their long-term mark when playing with extra rest is 10-18 ATS. The Eagles are 5-1 SU and ATS when off of a loss against a division rival and also 5-2 SU and ATS when they are a road dog of 3 points or less. The Giants are 1-9 ATS in the first of back to back home games. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Rickenbach NFL Game #458 Sunday - 8* Cleveland Browns (+) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 1 ET - We've all heard the expression "on any given Sunday" and that certainly applies here. The Browns are the only team in the AFC that hasn't won two games yet this season and, in fact, remain winless at 0-8. The Cowboys are the only team in the NFC that hasn't lost two games yet this season as they enter this game at 7-1. So basically you have the best team in the NFC against the worst team in the entire league. What happens? It all come down to situational handicapping and, with the Cowboys off of yet another divisional win they should not have had, don't be surprised if the Browns surprise a lot of people Sunday. Dallas beat Philly last week but it took overtime and truly, had the Eagles not screwed up a late FG opportunity (and inexplicably punted) the Cowboys would not have won last week. Earlier this season Dallas beat the Redskins in a game where Washington was on the goal line ready to put the game away and go up by two scores and then a huge turnover occurred and the Cowboys had another divisional win they did not necessarily deserve. This is the time to fade Dallas. They are being lauded as one of the top teams in the league (and certainly deserve some credit) but they are leading the NFC East division even though they easily could be 0-3 in their divisional games on the year. By the way, their other wins came against 4 teams whose combined record is 10-19-1 on the season. Be careful just handing the Super Bowl trophy to the Cowboys. Their downfall will start this week (surprise to many) and certainly they have a tough upcoming schedule. As for the Browns, as bad as they have been, 4 of their last 7 losses have come by 6 points or less. Also, this is their first opportunity this season where they have been home for back to back weeks and 2 of their 3 home losses have come by 5 points or less. This is a hungry Cleveland team that views this game (a chance to knock off of a team with one of the best records in the league) as hosting a mini-Super Bowl so to speak. Dallas is 3-6 SU and ATS in November games the past two seasons. 8* CLEVELAND

RARE Thursday TOP - Rickenbach NFL Game #307 Thursday - 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons (-) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:25 ET - The Falcons have big time revenge on their minds here. Not only did they lose their season opener at home against the Buccaneers this season, Atlanta also lost both match-ups with the Bucs last season. The fact is we are getting line value here because this game is being played at Tampa Bay. That is helping to keep the chalk here much smaller than it would be if this game was being played in Atlanta. How much will home field help the Buccaneers here? Well, they allowed 626 yards to the Raiders here last week and they are on a 7-22 ATS skid as home dogs so I would say home field is unlikely to be a deciding factor in this one! Truly the Bucs defense has been shredded for much of this season because the only games where TB thrived on defense was when they faced some of the most anemic offenses in the league (SF, LA, and Denver yards per game very unimpressive). In Tampa's other 4 games they've allowed an average of 353 passing yards per game! Atlanta, #1 offense in the league, is going to shred the Bucs defense Thursday. The Falcons are averaging 33 points per game this season and the Buccaneers have been held to 24 points or less in 4 of their last 6 games. The Falcons are on a 9-2 ATS run on Thursdays while the Bucs are 1-5 ATS in Thursday games. Atlanta is 4-0 ATS on the road this season and Tampa Bay is 0-3 ATS at home this season. The Buccaneers are 1-6 ATS as divisional dogs when facing an opponent who is seeking revenge. I fully expect Atlanta to get their revenge in a big way tonight and the systems above add to up a combined 27-4 (87%) ATS mark in favor of the Falcons. 10* ATLANTA FALCONS Thursday

21-0, 100% System Rout - Rickenbach NFL Game #274 Monday - 8* Chicago Bears (+) vs Minnesota Vikings @ 8:30 ET - The Vikings will be looking to respond off of a loss but, for the Bears, this is basically their "Super Bowl" for the season. It is their final appearance on Monday Night Football for the season and they are at home and they are hosting a division rival. Considering Chicago is off to a 1-6 start this season, this is one of the few opportunities they will have to "make some noise" the rest of the year. Look for the Bears to make the most of this opportunity and many will be surprised to hear this but, despite averaging less points than the Vikings, the Chicago offense is averaging 50 yards more per game than the Minnesota offense so far this season. Also, the Bears defense has not been as bad as the points per game would lead you to believe. Chicago is allowing only 350 yards per game. By comparison, the Vikings defense (arguably the best in the league) is allowing 280 yards per game. The point is that, from a statistical standpoint these teams are not as far apart as you may think at first glance. The Bears also have the home field edge here and I expect QB Jay Cutler to make the most of this second opportunity after Chicago QB Brian Hoyer suffered a broken arm. The Bears have won 8 of their last 10 meetings with Minnesota in Chicago and the two losses came by just 3 points apiece. Simply put, the Vikings have not enjoyed recent trips to Chicago and I don't expect that to change Monday night either. Chicago is 12-0 ATS as a home dog of 4 or more points when they are off of consecutive straight-up losses. The Bears also have the scheduling edge here as they are off of a Thursday night game so they have extra rest coming into this one and they also have a bye week on deck. The Vikings are 0-9 ATS as a road favorite when they are off of a straight-up loss as a favorite! The Vikes did cover in a big win over the Giants in MNF earlier this month but they are still on just a 1-7 ATS run in Monday Night football match-ups as they previously had failed to cover in 7 straight MNF games. Look for another Monday Night ATS loss here for Minny as we test the combined 21-0 ATS runs that are in play for this one (12-0 for the Bears and 9-0 against Minnesota). 8* CHICAGO 

Primetime Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #271 Sunday - 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:30 ET - Anything that changes a team momentum is a problem when that momentum was positive. Earlier this season we saw the Eagles start the year 3-0 and the electric start was culminated with a dominating win over the Steelers and that was when Ben Roethlisberger was healthy. After that game, the Eagles then lost a heartbreaker late at Detroit. That seemed to change their momentum as the very next week they were "flat" for their game against a division rival - the Redskins - and, of course, that is completely inexcusable. The Eagles responded the next week with another dominating effort (21-10 over Minnesota) and needless to say, Philly learned their lesson. That said, there is no way they're going to come out flat again versus a divisional foe. This is a key primetime match-up that brings out the best in teams and Philadelphia knows they can ill afford dropping into a 0-2 hole in divisional games. The Cowboys have now rattled off 5 straight wins (and 5 straight covers) so what possibly could be the problem? Besides the fact that the Eagles (when motivated) have won 4 games all by double digits and by an average margin of 19 points, the Cowboys had a momentum-killing bye week. When a team is struggling they relish a bye week to get back on track but truly the bye week at this time was the last thing Dallas needed. The Cowboys also have gone from being a 4 point fave here to as high as a 5.5 as of mid-morning on gameday. This is a Dallas team that on a 7-19 ATS run as a divisional home favorite while the Eagles are on a 15-3 ATS run as a divisional road dog! The visitor has won each of the last 6 meetings between these teams so home field has not meant much at all in recent meetings between these teams and yet Dallas is attracting a lot of attention in this match-up. The Eagles have not turned the ball over in 4 of their 6 games this season and their defense has been one of the best in the league with only 307 yards allowed per game. Only once did Philly allow more than 222 yards passing in a game. Dallas has allowed 294 yards or more through the air in 3 of their last 5 games. The Cowboys are on a 0-9-1 ATS run when they are favored against an NFC team that has a winning percentage of .666 or better. Head coach Jason Garrett has a 2-11 ATS mark as a home favorite when facing an opponent off of a SU win. Garrett also is 1-7 ATS as a fave of 3 or more points against a team with a winning record. 10* PHILADELPHIA

NFL Value Special - Rickenbach NFL Game #254 Sunday - 8* Atlanta Falcons (-) vs Green Bay Packers @ 4:25 ET - The Falcons are off of a tough home loss (in OT!) as they allowed the Chargers to battle back from a 17 point deficit. Prior to this loss, the Falcons also suffered a tough 2 point loss at Seattle. Needless to say, the Falcons are now feeling their backs are against the wall and this is an Atlanta team that that has the top offense in the league as QB Matt Ryan continues to dominate. The Packers and QB Aaron Rodgers just haven't been the same on offense this season. Though they did put up big numbers last week that was against the Bears (Chicago is now 1-6 on the season) and I don't see Green Bay as being able to keep up with a fired up Atlanta team here that has the most explosive offense in the league. The Falcons, even after last week's defeat, are on a 7-3 ATS run. The Packers, on the road for the first time in six weeks, have only covered once the last 9 times they have been a road dog. Green Bay has also suffered a straight-up loss in 5 of their last 6 games played in a dome and with how low the money line is here, taking the Falcons just to win this game is an option. 8* ATLANTA

AFC West Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Game #268 Sunday - 10* Top Play Denver Broncos (-) vs San Diego Chargers @ 4:05 ET - This line has dropped from a -6.5 to a -3.5 as of early Sunday morning and it is now "go time" with Denver in this one. The Broncos have one of the top defenses in the league. They also are #1 in the league for sack percentage at 10.7% and the Chargers do struggle to protect QB Philip Rivers. I have all the respect in the world for Rivers but he's in for a tough outing. We all say what happened Monday night when Denver "wanted it" against Houston and now we're going to see what happens when the Broncos "want it" against the Chargers. This is a revenge game for Denver and they outgained the Bolts by 40 yards in San Diego but managed to lose the game by 8 points. It's time for a little payback and, with the ground game going again (190 rushing yards versus Houston in MNF) and with the defense having held Rivers and Co to just 166 passing yards in the first match-up, there is no reason in the world this line should have dropped as much as it did. Time to step in and take advantage. The Chargers are off of their huge come-from-behind win at Atlanta last week (trailed Falcons by 17 in 2nd quarter) and won't have enough left in the tank to take down the Broncos a 2nd time in 18 days. Denver is on a 20-9 ATS run in AFC West games. The Broncos entered this season 7-0 ATS when they are off of a non-divisional game and facing a team off of an upset win as an underdog. The Chargers are 0-5 ATS as divisional dogs when they are off of a SU win as a dog. The Broncos defense has not allowed more than 23 points all season long. The Chargers defense has allowed 30 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games. Denver 30, San Diego 23 gets us the cash here but I expect an even much bigger margin of victory here and that's why this is a Top Play for me. With the line move, the better defense, and a resurgent ground game there is huge value with the Broncos here. 10* DENVER

1 of 3 on Early NFL 3-pack - Rickenbach NFL Game #260 Sunday - 8* Buffalo Bills (+) vs New England Patriots @ 1 ET - I am completely aware of the revenge aspect here for the Patriots as their only loss this season came versus the Bills in a 16-0 shutout at Foxboro the week before Brady came back. However, this line is simply inflated given the way the Bills have been playing. Buffalo had won four straight games before losing at Miami last week where they fell short by a field goal. The Bills are facing a Patriots team that has won 3 straight games since Brady is back under center. However, Buffalo is a surprising 5-0 ATS when they are facing an opponent who is seeking revenge and is off back to back wins. The Patriots are 2-7 ATS when favored by more than 4 points on the road and facing an AFC opponent. Both of those ATS wins actually came during the Pats 3-game winning streak since the loss to the Bills. However, it is certainly noteworthy that they came against a Browns team that is now 0-7 on the season and a Steelers team that was without Roethlisberger. Even without Big Ben, Pittsburgh did outgain the Patriots last week so the 27-16 win for New England certainly was a fortunate cover for New England. Bills head coach Rex Ryan has the quite the rivalry with Pats head coach Bill Belichick and 5 of the last 6 meetings when Ryan was with the Jets were decided by 3 points or less. The two last year, Ryan with Bills, both were decided by 8 points or less. Look for another tight battle and the points here, if even needed, will be enough for the cover. 8* BUFFALO Sunday

1 of 3 on Early NFL 3-pack - Rickenbach NFL Game #258 Sunday - 8* New Orleans Saints (+) vs Seattle Seahawks @ 1 ET - Seattle is off of their miracle tie at Arizona last week as the Cardinals outgained the Seahawks by nearly 200 yards and had every opportunity to win that game. Now Seattle heads further south and east to take on a New Orleans team that was the opposite of the lucky Seahawks last week. The Saints got burned by a tight loss at Kansas City as they outgained the Chiefs by nearly 150 yards but came up just short on the scoreboard. These results are helping to offer some line value this week as the scoreboard was not indicative of how the games really played out for these teams last week. Of course the Seahawks have the superior defense in this match-up but how much will they have left in the tank after batting for FIVE full quarters in last week's tie? As for the Saints, they definitely have the superior offense and New Orleans has been especially strong at home where they've averaged 36 points and 501 yards per game this season. The Saints are on an 11-3 ATS run as a dog. The Seahawks are on a 1-4 ATS run against NFC South foes. New Orleans is on a 7-0 ATS run against teams with a winning percentage of .666 or greater. Look for the Saints to get the upset here but grab the points. 8* NEW ORLEANS

1 of 3 on Early NFL 3-pack - Rickenbach NFL Game #266 Sunday - 8* Indianapolis Colts (+) vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 1 ET - Indianapolis is on an incredible 10-0 ATS run as a home dog and 9 of those 10 wins were outright upsets. The Colts should be in line for another one here as they take on a Chiefs team that was fortunate to get past the Saints last week and that game was at Arrowhead Stadium. KC was outgained by a 463 to 326 margin and first downs were 27 to 20 in favor of New Orleans. The Chiefs struggling offense is unlikely to keep up with the Colts dynamic offense in this one. Andrew Luck threw for 3 TDs last week and 353 yards against a Titans team that is actually a solid defensive club. One of the weaknesses for Indianapolis this season is pass protection but the Chiefs defense ranks near the bottom of the league in terms of percentage of sacks (3.6%) on pass plays. Indy is 10-3 SU and ATS when off of a divisional game. Also, the Colts are on a 4-1 ATS run against AFC West opponents. Kansas City is 2-4 SU and ATS in their last 6 games on turf and simply won't be able to keep up with the speedy Colts offense here. Indy is an amazing 9-0 ATS when they are at home off of a divisional game and facing an opponent who has a winning percentage of .600 or better on the season. Look for the Colts to make it 10 in a row early Sunday. 8* INDIANAPOLIS

26-0, 100% System Rout - Rickenbach NFL Game #101 - 10* Top Play Jacksonville Jaguars (+) @ Tennessee Titans @ 8:25 ET Thursday - Ever since Gus Bradley took over as head coach in Jacksonville, the Jaguars have never failed to cover a game against the Titans. It has been a 4-0-2 ATS run in this series. The Jags have gone 3-3 SU with the 3 wins including a 6 point win and 8 point win and, as for the 3 losses, the Jaguars have never lost by more than 4 points to Tennessee since Bradley became the head coach. That certainly puts this one well into the "play range" as there is value with grabbing the points here. The Titans aren't known for blowing teams out as 2 of their 3 wins this season came by 2 points or less. That means that out of all 7 of their games this season they have only won a game by more than 2 points one time. As for the Jaguars, they had won two straight games before last week's ugly loss but look closely at that defeat last week. The Jags lost by 17 but the yardage was dead even at 344 for the Jaguars and the Raiders. The difference was Jacksonville losing the turnover battle 3 to 0. Before that loss, the Jaguars were 2-3 on the season with the only blowout loss being at San Diego and that was also a turnover-driven final as the Jags outgained the Chargers 388 to 357 but lost the game by 24 points thanks in part to a 3-1 deficit in turnovers. The Titans have forced only one turnover in four home games this season so I don't expect that to be an issue for the Jaguars Thursday night. Also, Tennessee is wearing down as their bye week is not until early December. This is the Titans 5th game in 26 days whereas the Jaguars just had a bye week on the 9th of the month and will be the fresher team here. With last week's loss to the Colts, the Titans are now on a 1-8 ATS run as a favorite. Also, Tennessee is on a 1-12 ATS run in divisional games and they are disappointed about losing to another divisional foe, Indianapolis, for a 10th straight time Sunday! The Titans know they wasted a chance to solidify positioning in the standings and it is often tough to bounce back mentally after a game like that. I look for Tennessee to again struggle here. Jacksonville, in road games with a posted total between 42.5 and 45 points has failed to cover just twice in eight games! Also, there is a perfect system we are testing here. The Jaguars are 9-0 ATS when they are on the road off of an ATS loss by double digits and they are facing an opponent who is off of a SU loss as a favorite. Tennessee is 0-7 ATS in home games with a posted total between 42.5 and 45 points. The Titans are on an 0-10 ATS run when facing a division opponent who is playing with revenge (Jags lost here in last meeting of 2015). That means we are testing a 26-0, 100% ATS combined systems record here! One final note to tighten this one up even more: Tennessee entered this season with a 1-14 ATS mark when facing an opponent who is off of a loss by a double digit margin. With the Jags off of the ugly home loss to Oakland Sunday, they are the play in full bounce back mode here in this weeknight affair. 10* JACKSONVILLE Thursday Night 

MNF Insider - Rickenbach NFL Game #478 Monday - 8* Denver Broncos (-) vs Houston Texans @ 8:30 ET - Broncos head coach Gary Kubiak was fired by the Texans late in the 2013 season. Needless to say this game carries special meaning for him. Houston QB Brock Osweiler spurned Denver for a big contract with the Texans in the off-season. At his news conference he said he felt this gave him the best chance to win. Keep in mind he went from a Super Bowl winner to a Houston franchise that hasn't won a playoff game since after the 2012 season. The Broncos are hungry to take their shots (literally) at Osweiler and company tonight. Not only is this a revenge game for coach Kubiak and his players, they also are very hungry to get back into the win column as they are coming off of back to back losses. One was a tight home loss to a surging Falcons team but the other was a road loss at San Diego (a game coach Kubiak missed). Denver plays well with extra rest. Earlier this season after a Thursday game they then blasted Indianapolis by 14 for a win and cover. The Broncos are now 8-1 ATS when off of a Thursday game. After the loss to the Chargers last Thursday, Denver is rested and ready to improve that mark to 9-1 ATS. Houston is on an ugly 1-7 ATS run in Monday night football as the Texans do not have a history of performing well under the lights. Remember they got embarrassed 27-0 at New England in a Thursday night game earlier this season. Though Houston got the win versus Indianapolis this past Sunday night, they had to rally from 14 points down with 3 minutes to go in the game. The Texans got the shocking win in overtime but this is not the Colts at home they are facing. Rather, this is the Broncos in Denver and I am expecting a blowout loss here because Denver won't hesitate to pile up the points here if given the opportunity. They hate Osweiler and Kubiak hates Houston. They also are fired up because they are off of rare back to back losses. That just doesn't happen much with the Broncos! In fact, this is just the 4th time it has happened dating back to 2012. The result the first three times? A perfect 3-0 with an average margin of victory of 12 points per game. This one has the makings of a big-time blowout. 8* DENVER BRONCOS Monday

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #476 Sunday - 8* Arizona Cardinals (-1 or Pick'em) vs Seattle Seahawks @ 8:30 ET - After some inconsistent play early this season, the Cardinals finally were able to put together back to back strong performances and they enter Sunday's huge divisional showdown off of consecutive wins. The Cardinals will have the Sunday night lights at the University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona tonight and they have revenge on their minds here. Seattle has won all three games at Arizona since Bruce Arians has been the head coach. Not only that, the Cardinals (and Arians!) have been embarrassed by a combined score of 105 to 34 in those games. Needless to say, the Cardinals have revenge and payback on their minds here. One thing going in their favor is that the Seahawks have struggled at times with their revamped offensive line and the departure of Marshawn Lynch. The running game is not as consistent as it once was and neither is the pass protection. The Seahawks were fortunate to get the win over Atlanta last week as a late non-call in a penalty situation certainly played a role in the final outcome. The Seahawks did fail to get the cover and are now 2-7 ATS in games played in weeks 5 through 9. This lull in the 2nd quarter of the season could creep up again as they barely got by the Falcons last week and now face a revenge-minded Arizona team trying to build on their first winning streak of the season. The Cardinals tend to thrive in games like this as they are 10-2 SU (and 9-3 ATS) in their last dozen games where the line is a field goal or less whether they are the favorite or the dog. Also, unlike the Hawks, this is the Cards time of year as they have gone 9-2 SU (and 8-3 ATS) in weeks 5 through 9. It is time for the Cardinals to finally 'get one' at home against the Seahawks. The Cards haven't forgotten last season's 36-6 embarrassing home loss. 8* ARIZONA CARDINALS

Ultimate PA Insider - Rickenbach NFL Game #474 Sunday - 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers +7.5 vs New England Patriots @ 4:25 ET - Yes, the Patriots are off of back to back dominating wins since Tom Brady returned. However, those teams are a combined 2-10 on the season. Yes, the Steelers are without Ben Roethlisberger today. However, they are also a quality team that was 4-1 this season before he got hurt during the loss at Miami last week that dropped Pittsburgh to 4-2 on the season. The point is that this is still a quality Steelers team and QB Landry Jones has had ample time now to prepare as the starter for this game. After their first loss this season the Steelers responded by blasting the Chiefs 43 to 14. Granted, the Patriots certainly are not the Chiefs but, keep in mind, the Steelers don't have to blast the Pats to get the money for us here. In fact, they don't even have to win the game. All they have to do is remain competitive throughout this game and I absolutely see that happening after last week's embarrassing loss. The Steelers overall numbers on defense do not impress but they have certainly shown a lot of "bend but don't break" D this season. That is why Pittsburgh has allowed 16 points or less in all 4 of their wins! The Steelers normally are at their best against quality opposition and, in fact, have gone 12-3 SU in their last 15 games against teams with a winning record. The Patriots win at Cleveland two weeks ago was the first time they've covered as a favorite of more than 4 points in a road game against against an AFC foe in quite some time. Their record in that situation is now 1-7 ATS their last 8 and this is a large spread for the Pats on the road against a quality AFC opponent. The Steelers are undervalued here. Grab the home dog. 10* PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Non-Conf NFL Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Game #470 Sunday - 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons -4.5 vs San Diego Chargers @ 4:05 ET - The Falcons continue to be under-valued and this is a another nice spot to back them as they are hungry off of a tight loss. I rode Atlanta against last week, after having them the week before in their outright win at Denver, and the Falcons were robbed on a late non-call that should have been a penalty. Atlanta still got the cash for me but that cost ATL the outright win. Still, the good news is that means the Falcons will be extra hungry this week and they have covered 5 in a row. I have ridden Atlanta with either a star rated pick or free pick each of their last 4 games so I have been in on a good portion of this hot streak and I see no reason why it won't continue here. The Chargers are off of a huge upset win over Denver and that could leave them flat here. They've lost 8 of their last 9 games with the Falcons and they've also lost 10 fumbles already this season. San Diego has trouble closing out games and Atlanta is the #1 offense in the league. I just don't see the Chargers being able to keep up in this one as they've averaged 3 turnovers per game the last 4 weeks and the Falcons have only averaged 0.83 turnovers per game on the season! Atlanta's strength, Matt Ryan and the passing attack, goes right at the heart of the Chargers main weakness which is pass defense. The Chargers are on a 1-5 ATS run when playing away after a Thursday game and this is also a tough trip as it is an East Coast trip to a non-conference foe and the situation is made even tougher after coming off of a big divisional home win. I don't expect the Chargers to have much left in the tank to match the high emotions of a Falcons team that is still steaming mad from what happened last week. 10* ATLANTA FALCONS

Rickenbach NFL Game #461 Sunday - 8* Buffalo Bills -2.5 @ Miami Dolphins @ 1 ET - The Dolphins are off of a huge win versus the Steelers last week. After a 15 point win as a 7 point underdog, it can be tough to duplicate the effort. Undoubtedly Miami left a lot on the field in that huge win last week and that ATS victory was preceded by 4 straight non-covers. Also, that was just the 2nd win of the season for the Dolphins. The Bills have been at the other end of the spectrum as they come into this game off of 4 straight wins and they covered the spread in each of those victories. While Buffalo has turned the ball over only 4 times this season, the Dolphins, prior to last week's surprising win, had 11 turnovers in their past 4 games. The Bills have won 5 of the last 6 meetings with Miami and RB LeSean McCoy (3 TDs last week) has had his injury status upgraded to probable for this game. The Dolphins are on a 1-9 ATS run in divisional games while Buffalo is on a 14-6 ATS run in AFC East games and certainly is on a power surge right now. With the small road price here on the much better team, I won't hesitate to step in. 8* BUFFALO BILLS

Rickenbach NFL Game #467 Sunday - 8* Baltimore Ravens +2.5 @ New York Jets @ 1 ET - The Ravens certainly have been "snakebit" in terms of getting covers. It dates back to last season when they had a 5-11 straight-up record and also only covered 5 of their 16 games ATS. This season, the Ravens are on a tough ATS streak after losing on a 4th and 1 play to the Giants last week as that short yardage play turned into a game-winning "catch and run" TD for Odell Beckham Jr. The key to this play today is we shouldn't have to worry about the spread (although I'll gladly grab the 2.5 points being offered) as Baltimore should take this one outright. The Ravens visit a Jets team that not only has lost 4 straight but has been getting hammered in each game. New York has lost each of their last 4 games by a double digit margin and the Jets have only produced an average of 9 points per game during this 4 game losing streak. With QB Joe Flacco listed as probable now for the Ravens, and with Baltimore having totaled at least 282 passing yards in 3 of their last 5 games, I just don't see the Jets keeping up in this game. New York is sinking fast in the AFC East while the Ravens, especially with the fact that the Steelers Roethlisberger is going to miss some time, know they can keep pace in the AFC North with a win today. With a bye on deck and fully motivated after last week's late loss here at the Meadowlands (against the Giants), look for the Ravens to pull the road "upset" here. As a home favorite of 3 points or less, the Jets have gone 0-5 SU and ATS their last 5. The Ravens are on a 4-0 ATS run in games against AFC East teams. 8* BALTIMORE RAVENS

Rickenbach NFL Game #465 Sunday - 8* Indianapolis Colts +3.5 @ Tennessee Titans @ 1 ET Sunday - The Colts blew a game they never should of lost at Houston last week as they gave up 2 TD lead in the 4th quarter and then lost in OT. Also, Indianapolis definitely has been dealing with some injury issues. However, Indy is highly like to "rally the troops" this week at Tennessee. Facing the Titans means that the Colts get a 2nd straight shot against a key divisional foe and Indy can tie them in the standings with a win today. Houston has a tough match-up at Denver Monday night so the Colts know they are still much very alive in the watered-down AFC South and I look for Andrew Luck and Company to put it all together in an early "must-win" game. Waiting here has paid off as the line has moved all the way up to a 3.5 as of Sunday morning. Of course that is mostly due to the injuries the Colts have been dealing with. However, taking a look at the Titans, they are only 1-2 at home this season and that lone win came by only 2 points and that was against the lowly 0-6 Browns last week! The Titans certainly are the better defensive team in this match-up but the Colts have the much more productive offense. There is now a lot of line value here with the move from well below a 3 to now above 3. Tennessee hasn't exactly been a "covering machine" as, in fact, the Titans are on an ugly 2-11 SU (and 1-11-1 ATS) run in divisional games! The Colts have won 10 of their last 14 divisional games and, even with last week's tough push ATS, they are on a 9-2-1 ATS run in weeks 5 through 9 the past 3 seasons combined. The value is with the dog here as, keep in mind, the Colts only have 1 loss by more than 4 points so far this season and the Titans only have one win by more than 2 points this season. Look for the Colts to defeat the Titans a 9th straight time but I will grab the generous points here. 8* INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #302 Thursday - 8* Green Bay Packers (-) vs Chicago Bears @ 8:25 ET - Green Bay is off of an embarrassing home loss to the Cowboys Sunday. There is plenty of reason to believe that the Packers bounce back huge on Thursday night. Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers has an incredible record of 16-3 SU and ATS in divisional games when the Packers are off of an ATS loss. That's right, Rodgers and The Pack get the cover over 80% of the time in situations like this. Green Bay is motivated about much more than just the loss last week to Dallas. The Packers also haven't forgotten last season's Thursday night game against the Bears. Green Bay came into that game having won and covered each of their last four meetings with Chicago. The Packers were an 8 point favorite in that game and they not only failed to cover, they lost the game outright. Worse yet, it was a game on Thanksgiving Night and it was the game during which Brett Favre's number was retired at half-time! Green Bay is fired up about getting a little payback against a division rival and the Bears come in on a horrible skid as they are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games. The Packers are on a 10-5 ATS run in divisional home games where they are favored. Also, even with that Thanksgiving loss to Chicago, Green Bay is 8-2 SU and ATS in their last 10 games against the Bears. Chicago is on a long-term 7-21 ATS run in road games with a posted total between 45.5 and 49 points. The Packers are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Packers need to bounce back here after last week's loss, the Bears struggles have continued, and the revenge angle is a BIG ONE for a hungry home team here. Lay it! 8* GREEN BAY PACKERS minus the points Thursday Night

MNF Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #277 Monday - 10* Top Play New York Jets (+) @ Arizona Cardinals @ 8:30 ET - The Jets have an ugly record on the season and the Cardinals are getting QB Carson Palmer back under center for this one. However, the keys to this match-up lie a little deeper in the details. The Jets have played a tougher schedule than have the Cards. Both teams faced the Bills but taking a look at the rest of their schedule, note that Arizona played New England when they were without Tom Brady and then their other three games have not featured a single team that currently has a winning record. As for New York, the Jets have lost three straight games (SU and ATS) but all 3 defeats came against teams that currently have a winning record on the season. In fact, those 3 teams have a combined 11-5 mark on the year. The other key to the value here with the Jets (currently priced at +7.5 in this game) is the fact that head coach Todd Bowles played under Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians when he was at Temple from '82 to '85. Also, Bowles was the defensive coordinator at Arizona (under HC Arians) in 2013 and 2014. There is a little extra motivation, to say the least, for Bowles in this match-up. Additionally, he has some additional knowledge of the Cardinals personnel from having recently coached there. In terms of trends in this match-up, note that Arizona is a long-term ugly 1-11 ATS in games where they are a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points. Also, the Cardinals are known for faltering on Monday night with an 0-6 ATS run in their last 6 and also they are off of a big Thursday night win over the 49'ers and they are on a 1-6 ATS run the week after facing San Francisco. Arizona also has a big divisional game on deck with Seattle so it is hard for the Cards not to look ahead here. The Jets are the hungrier, more motivated team here and they also are getting significant points which makes for excellent line value here. The Cardinals have some key injuries at the guard positions on the offensive line and the Jets have a strong defensive line and will win this game in the trenches. 10* NEW YORK JETS plus the big points in Monday Night Football

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #275 Sunday - 8* Indianapolis Colts (+) @ Houston Texans @ 8:30 ET - Very interesting match-up with the better offense and bad defense - Colts - taking on the stronger defense and weak offense - Texans. Certainly the Colts have had issues with pass protection but the Texans defense is definitely missing JJ Watt. So what is the key match-up in my opinion? It is simply Andrew Luck versus Brock Osweiler. In my opinion, there is no way I am taking Osweiler over Luck under the Sunday night lights. The Colts play-calling on offense will be predicated around the fact that the line is struggling to protect Luck. Therefore we could some quick handoffs and quick short passing routes or screen passes which will help keep Luck on his feet plus will help keep the Texans defense off balance. That said, I certainly look for Luck to be the one that "makes plays" in this game while Osweiler continues to struggle for the Texans. Indianapolis plays this game with revenge from a home loss to Houston last December. Prior to that defeat the Colts had won 23 of the last 27 meetings. The Colts are on a 9-2 ATS run in games played in weeks 5 through 9. The Texans are 0-3 SU and ATS in home games where the posted total is between 45.5 and 49 points. Simply put, the Houston offense won't be able to keep up with Andrew Luck and Company in this one as the Colts get revenge for last December's home loss. 8* INDIANAPOLIS Sunday Night

Blowout of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #274 Sunday - 8* Green Bay Packers (-) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - Green Bay burned me a little last week as they had a big lead on the Giants and let up a little bit and then the Packers ended up being a "push" in their game last week for most even though they held New York to only 219 yards of offense. The Packers are still on a 19-9 ATS run as a non-divisional home favorite and they are known for giving Dallas trouble. Green Bay is on a 4-1 ATS run overall against the Cowboys and the Packers are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 at Lambeau Field hosting Dallas. The Packers are 6-0 ATS as home favorites against the NFC East. Green Bay is also 6-1 ATS when facing an opponent off of a straight-up dog win. The Cowboys definitely looked good in their outright upset win over the Bengals last week but this is their first game this season against a team with a winning record and Dallas is on a 4-8 ATS run in games against teams with an above .500 record. Also, the Cowboys are on a long-term 17-27 ATS run as road dogs in a range of 3.5 to 7 points. The Packers are on a 6-1 ATS run in games where they are a home fave in a range of 3.5 to 7 points and also 5-0 ATS in home games where the posted total is between 45.5 and 49 points. Combining those trends with the ones above favoring the Packers. we are testing a combined 28-3 ATS run in favor of the home fave. 8* GREEN BAY Sunday late afternoon

Top Contrarian Play - Rickenbach NFL Game #271 Sunday - 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons (+) @ Seattle @ 4:25 ET - Seattle's defense looks great statistically so far this season. However, they have played some of the worst teams in terms of offensive production so far this year. Miami, LA, San Francisco, and the Jets are hardly a "who's who" of offensive powerhouses. That said, if any offense can march into CenturyLink Field and not be bothered by the noise in Seattle, it is Matt Ryan and the Falcons. Atlanta has the number one offense in the league this season and they have helped lead the way to a 4-1 start to the season for the Falcons. The other key to this play is the fact that Atlanta head coach Dan Quinn was the defensive coordinator with the Seahawks in 2013 and 2014. This the first meeting between these teams since he's been gone from Seattle. You better believe that Quinn wants this game badly and you'd better believe that he has an edge in terms of understanding the personnel and systems of the Seahawks. That said, the fact we are getting about a full TD here with the much better offensive team is too good to pass up. Seattle is still a quality football team but they are regressing in my opinion. They went from SB win in 2013 to SB loss to 2014 to NFC Championship loss in 2015. This season the regression will continue in my opinion but we just haven't seen it yet due to their soft schedule thusfar. The Hawks are off of their bye week but they do have a big game with division rival Arizona on deck. Also, the Falcons don't even want a bye right now as they simply keep on rolling. Their win at Denver last was their fourth straight upset victory. Even though the Falcons are on the road again for a 2nd straight week they simply stayed out west to prepare for this game. This Atlanta team has bonded together very well and this road trip will continue their surge. They are on a 9-1 ATS run their last 10 in the underdog role. The Seahawks are 1-6 ATS when they are at home and playing with rest. Seattle is also 1-5 ATS when they have the Cardinals on deck. The Falcons are 8-1 ATS off of a SU dog win when facing a non-divisional opponent. This is a classic case of an undervalued road dog against an overvalued home fave and that has created generous line value here. 10* ATLANTA in Sunday's late afternoon action

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #267 Sunday - 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ Washington Redskins @ 1 ET - Despite outgaining the Lions by over 100 yards last week, the Eagles came up on the wrong end of the scoreboard and suffered their first loss of the season. That sets this one up nicely in terms of the line value because the Redskins are off of a tight win at Baltimore in a game that clearly could have gone either way last week. Washington was fortunate in terms of the weather (gusty winds) limiting the Ravens offense last week. Prior to that game, the Redskins had allowed 27 points per game in their first 4 games of the season. Washington should prove to be no match for an Eagles team that has proven to be very well balanced early this season and currently ranks among the top offensive and defensive units in the league so far this season. After a tough loss last week, the Eagles will be flying all over the field in their first divisional game of the season. Philly is on a 25-14 ATS run in road games with a posted total in a range of 42.5 to 45 points. Washington is on a 16-30 ATS run in home games with a posted total in a range of 42.5 to 45 points. The Eagles defense (allowing only 266.8 yards per game) will key the road win here. 8* PHILADELPHIA early Sunday

EARLY Top Side - Rickenbach NFL Game #253 Sunday - 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens (+) @ New York Giants @ 1 ET - Ravens offense struggled last week in a home loss to the Redskins but Baltimore was limited by gusty winds in that game. The weather conditions today in East Rutherford, New Jersey will be beautiful and I expect the Ravens to take full advantage. Baltimore has the better pass protection (5.0% sack %) so far this season and the Giants have struggled to get to the quarterback (1.9% sack %) so far this year. Baltimore has also had the better defense this season with the #3 ranked D based on yardage while the Giants defense ranks only in the middle of the pack so far this year. The Giants were fortunate to get the ATS push last week at Green Bay as they only had 219 yards of offense in that game. This followed a dismal Monday night performance at Minnesota where the Giants only put 10 points on the board. Look for their struggles on offense to continue here as Baltimore improves on a 4-1 ATS (and SU) mark in their last five meetings with the Giants. The Ravens are on a long-term 81-33 SU run in games against teams with a losing record while the Giants are on a short-term 1-13 SU run in games against teams with a winning record. There is plenty of line value here with grabbing the points as Baltimore is 9-5 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog while the Giants are already 0-2 ATS this season when favored in a range of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Ravens entered this season with an 8-0 ATS mark when they are road dogs of 3or more points and their facing a team off of a SU loss. That system is in play in this one! Also, the Ravens are on a 7-0 ATS run when they are off of back to back losses (SU and ATS) and they are facing an opponent whose winning percentage is .750 or less. Baltimore is also 8-1 ATS as a non-divisional dog of 2 points or more when they are off of an ATS loss by double digits. Last week the Ravens were -4 and they lost outright by 6 points so this system is in play as well as they missed the cover by 10 points last week. Additionally they entered the season on an 8-1 ATS run when facing an NFC opponent off of a SU loss. The Giants have a trip to London on deck as an additional distraction here. 10* BALTIMORE Sunday

Primetime Punisher Thursday - Rickenbach NFL Game #104 - 8* San Diego Chargers (+) vs Denver Broncos @ 8:25 ET - Many are likely to be looking at the Broncos here off of a home loss. However, I correctly faded Denver with the Falcons last week and I am going to do it again with the Chargers this week. Broncos rookie QB Paxton Lynch proved that it may be awhile before he's ready to step in as a solid NFL starter. That means the return of QB Trevor Siemian this week even though his non-throwing shoulder could still be an impact for him. Also, keep in mind, these teams are nearly even statistically so far this season. Even though the Chargers are only 1-4 on the season, they lost their first game of the season in overtime and they come into this game on a 3-game losing streak where the 3 defeats have come by a total of just 8 points. The point is that San Diego has been in every game. Though the Broncos D allows an average of 74 yards per game less than the Chargers, the San Diego offense is averaging 47 yards per game more than Denver's O. That said, considering we have home field here and we have a veteran QB in Philip Rivers going against an injured rookie in Siemian, I like my chances for the upset here. The Chargers are on a 7-2 ATS run when off of a SU loss against a division rival. Though they got the cover last week they did lose the game by 3 points at Oakland last week. The Broncos have a history of underestimating foes and with all of their past success against the Chargers (5 straight wins dating back to 2013 post-season), they could get caught underestimating just how dangerous this 1-4 San Diego team is. Denver is on a long-term 56-77 ATS run in their games against teams with a losing record. The Broncos offensive line was shaky last week and the defense was exposed by the high-powered attack of Atlanta. Trust me, the Chargers were paying attention to both of those areas and can take advantage at home on Thursday night. 8* SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #475 - 8* Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+) @ Carolina Panthers @ 8:30 ET Monday - Both teams have some injury issues but the Panthers being without QB Cam Newton certainly is the biggest of them all. He has been ruled out for this Monday night match-up and, with both teams having struggled early this season, I see great line value here with the points. The line moved to a solid 6 Sunday evening and that means it is "go time" for me here on Monday morning. Note that Carolina is on a long-term 21-32 ATS run as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Also, Tampa Bay is 17-6 ATS in road games where the posted total is between 45.5 and 49 points. The biggest trend here is that the Buccaneers are a PERFECT 10-0 ATS when they are a dog of more than 4 points off of a game where they were held to less than 10 points. With Tampa Bay off of the ugly 27-7 loss to Denver last week and now coming in as a 6 point dog on Monday Night Football, look for the Buccaneers to come up huge in a chance to make amends in a divisional game in the spotlight of MNF. Tampa Bay is looking for revenge here as they have lost both match-ups with Carolina each of the past three seasons (0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS). Look for a big game from RB Jacquizz Rodgers who also was a solid receiving target for the Falcons from 2012 to 2014. He'll be filling in to injuries to the Bucs RB corps and he's fully capable of a big game here. The Panthers defense got lit up by Atlanta last week and I know TB is certainly no ATL when it comes to production on offense but QB Jameis Winston is certainly capable of putting up big numbers and he simply needs to avoid turnovers. By the way, the Panthers have forced just 1 turnover the past 2 weeks combined. The Bucs could pull off the upset here but certainly there is value with the sizable points. Look for that stat I mentioned above to move to a perfect 11-0 ATS. 8* TAMPA BAY Monday night

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #474 - 8* Green Bay Packers (-) vs New York Giants @ 8:30 ET Sunday - Superb scheduling advantage here for the Packers as they are off of their bye week and now host a Giants teams traveling for a second straight week and also playing on short rest as the G-men were at Minnesota on Monday night. The Giants have failed to cover any of their last three games as they head to Lambeau Field to take on a Green Bay team that is 9-1 ATS when off of a bye. The Packers are also on a 6-0, 100% PERFECT ATS run when they are a home favorite against an NFC East foe. Green Bay certainly won't overlook the Giants as New York has defeated Green Bay in each of the last three meetings including one in the post-season here in Green Bay 5 years ago. The Giants have failed to cover 4 straight times when they are a road dog in the 2nd of back to back games away from home. After getting drilled at Minnesota Monday night look for a similar result Sunday night. Don't be surprised if turnovers play a role again tonight as the Giants have turned the ball over 8 times in their last 3 games while the Packers have not turned the ball over a single time in 2 of their 3 games this season. The Giants are very banged up in the secondary and the Packers and QB Aaron Rodgers will take advantage. The Packers are allowing only 42.7 rushing yards per game so the Giants will have to beat them through the air but Eli Manning has struggled in his last 2 games including throwing 3 interceptions. 8* GREEN BAY Sunday night

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #471 - 10* Top Play Cincinnati Bengals (-) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET Sunday - The Bengals have the rest edge here as they had a Thursday game last week. By the way, Cincy dominated the Dolphins in that game and the fact is that the Cowboys simply have not faced a team as strong as the Bengals yet this season. Cincinnati has been a playoff team for five straight seasons. The Cowboys have faced a floundering 49'ers team, the Giants and Redskins (both struggling in recent season as part of the NFC "Least" Division, and a Bears team that hasn't had a winning season since 2012. Dallas finally gets tested here and the Bengals defense will have its ears pinned back as they want to test Dak Prescott early and often in this one. The young QB has performed well so far this season but he hasn't faced much pressure and the Bengals are known for having a fierce defense that can "bring the heat". Cincy entered this season with a 7-0 ATS mark in their games against teams with a winning percentage of .600 or greater. Coach Marvin Lewis has a reputation for having his Bengals at their best for games like this and they would love nothing more than to knock off "America's team" at "Jerry's World" Sunday afternoon in Dallas. The Cowboys have been a great "story" early this season but the Bengals are the "proven" team in a big game setting like this one. Dallas is on a 5-13 ATS run in home games while the Bengals are on a 12-6 ATS run in road games and a 17-6 ATS run against NFC East opponents. 10* CINCINNATI in late afternoon Sunday action

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #465 - 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons +4.5 @ Denver Broncos @ 4:05 ET Sunday - Paxton Lynch was pressed into duty at QB for the Broncos last week at Tampa Bay and he performed well. However, the Buccaneers are now 13-39 in their last 52 games and Lynch, likely to start here, is going to face a much tougher test against the Falcons. Atlanta is not a strong club defensively but they are a powerhouse on offense and Matt Ryan and Company should "get theirs" against the Broncos in this one. That will put pressure on the rookie Lynch to come up with a big game here and that is going to be tough in this spot. Ryan threw for over 500 yards last week and 300 of that went to WR Julio Jones  who continues to be a beast for the Falcons. The Broncos rock solid defense now meets the offense currently ranked #1 in the league and considering the key injury for Denver at the QB position with Trevor Siemian likely to miss, I would not be surprised to see an outright upset here but certainly there is value in the points. Atlanta is 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season and all 3 wins were outright upsets! The Falcons are 13-6 ATS as an underdog the past three seasons combined. The Broncos are known for playing well at Mile High but they have covered only 3 of the last 9 times they are a home favorite in a range of 3.5 to 7 points. 10* ATLANTA in late afternoon action Sunday

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #451 - 8* Houston Texans +7 @ Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET Sunday - The Vikings are not only undefeated this season, they are also 4-0 ATS. While a lot of credit certainly goes to the ultra-formidable defense of Minnesota, the fact is that the ball has certainly bounced the way of the Vikings early and often this season. The Vikes are +10 in turnover margin and that has had a lot to do with their success at the betting window early this season. I feel they are now starting to get a little too pricey as this line has moved up to a 7 and there is value with a Texans team whose offense (334.5 yards per game) is actually out-gaining the Vikings who are averaging only 290.5 yards per game this season. Also, very quietly, the Texans defense continues to do well and their strong performance last week came without J.J. Watt so that was a big plus for Houston. The Texans are allowing an average of only 287.8 yards per game this season while the Vikings are allowing an average of 306 yards per game. The Vikings D gets all the publicity but, as you can see, this Texans defense has been flying all over the field too! Houston has won the turnover battle in only one of their four games this season and that has been the big difference between these two teams. The result is solid line value for a 3-1 Texans team as everyone remembers their ugly loss to New England but the yardage was actually equal in that game and that type of result is adding even more line value to a spot like this. By the way, the Texans are on a 10-3 ATS run. Also, the Vikings are on a 3-10 ATS run when they are off of an ATS win by double digits and are now facing an opponent who is playing with revenge. The Texans did lose the last time they faced Minny and the Vikes are off of a huge cover in their win over the Giants which, by the way, came on Monday night so this is a short week for the Vikings to get ready for a tough Texans team. I am grabbing the generous points. 8* HOUSTON early Sunday afternoon

PA Insider - Rickenbach NFL Game #461 - 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ Detroit Lions @ 1 ET Sunday - The Eagles, with their win over the Steelers two weeks ago, proved the naysayers wrong. This Philadelphia team is for real and now, the best possible thing that could happen is that the Eagles got a much-needed bye before their heads got too big because of knocking off Pittsburgh. In all seriousness, that bye week did some good for the Eagles as otherwise they might have come out "flat as a pancake" after such a huge win like they had over a top notch team like Pittsburgh. Philly ranks as one of the top teams in the league on both sides of the ball so far this season while the Lions continue to under-perform and are off of a disappointing loss to the Bears last week. Detroit has lost three straight games both SU and ATS. The Eagles come into this game a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS and with the added benefit of coming off of a bye week. That said, I'll gladly lay the small number with the Eagles here as there is line value with Philly on the road. The Lions have only covered ONCE the last NINE times they have been a home dog. Also, the Eagles are 5-0 ATS when they have extra rest and are facing an opponent with a winning percentage of .600 or less. The Lions blew out the Eagles 45-14 last season and Detroit is 1-10 ATS as a dog of 10 points or less when they are facing an opponent who is playing with revenge. The Wentz show continues and also keep in mind that Jim Schwartz is the Eagles defensive coordinator and he is a former head coach of the Lions. The year after he was fired from the Lions he because defensive coordinator in Buffalo and helped lead the Bills to a 4-0 record against NFC North teams that season as he knew them well from his years in Detroit. He certainly knows the Lions well and that will pay off once again here. The Eagles have this game covered well on both sides of the ball with Wentz leading the way on O and Schwartz leading the way on D. Road rout! 8* PHILADELPHIA in early action Sunday