Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NFL Game #260 Sunday 8* Cincinnati Bengals (-) vs Cleveland Browns @ 1 ET - This line has gone from the Bengals being a 3-point choice to now being a pick'em in this game as of early Sunday morning. I love the value we're getting here with a Bengals team that has former Browns head coach Hue Jackson serving as an assistant to Cincinnati head coach Marvin Lewis. Jackson joined the staff of Lewis two weeks ago after being fired by the Browns. Of course Jackson knows the Browns very well and, of course, there is plenty of motivation here. Cleveland is on an ugly 6-15 ATS run in divisional games. The Bengals are on a 7-0 SU (and ATS!) run in their last 7 games with the Browns! They've crushed them by an average margin of 21 points per game. More of the same expected here. 8* CINCINNATI

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #109 Thursday 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons (+) @ New Orleans Saints @ 8:20 ET - The Saints are stream-rolling everyone right now so, of course, they're a popular choice in this match-up. However, their line is truly over-inflated and New Orleans is facing a division rival that, before a tight loss earlier this season, had beaten them in 3 of the last 4 games. Also, 2 of the Falcons last 4 visits to New Orleans have resulted in outright wins. I am not necessarily expecting an upset here but I am expecting the Falcons to stay well within this large number. How many times has Atlanta lost by more than 10 points to the Saints in the past 13 meetings? ZERO! Also, the Falcons are on an 11-3 ATS run in Thursday games. The Saints, under coach Sean Payton, are an ugly 1-10 ATS when they are off a SU win by double digits, and facing an opponent off back to back SU losses! Also, under coach Payton, New Orleans is a poor 2-13 ATS as a favorite off a non-divisional game and facing a divisional opponent whom is playing with revenge. These are strong systems that each favor the big road dog Falcons here. The Saints are also 5-13 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points. Statistically these teams match up much more closely than their won-loss records would lead you to believe. Look for this one to be tight all the way which means HUGE value with the BIG points. 10* ATLANTA

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NFL Game #107 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Redskins @ 4:30 ET - Washington QB Colt McCoy hasn't shown the ability at the NFL level to really stretch the defense downfield with long passes. However, he has been in Redskins head coach Jay Gruden's system during Gruden's entire time with Washington and "dink and dunk" passes and quick short strikes and screen plays actually could give the aggressive defense of the Cowboys some issues here. Dallas likes to use their defensive line to create havoc but McCoy also is a mobile QB and I strongly believe that the Redskins offense is going to have success today. The problem for Washington today is going to be that they'll struggle to stop a Dallas offense that is hitting their stride and playing with confidence. Hence, the play on the over in this one. The Cowboys have won 3 of their last 5 games and have averaged 30 points per game in those 3 wins. Also, the earlier match-up this season stayed under the total but had a last-second field goal been made, the game would have gone over the total. That is noteworthy because this series was on a 5-0 run to the over heading into that one and I expect the high-scoring ways to resume here. The Redskins defense has allowed 338 passing yards per game their last 3 road games. Washington is 8-4 to the over in Thursday games. The Redskins are also 8-2 to the over in games played in weeks 10 through 13 of a season. The Cowboys are 3-1 to the over in home games this season and a long-term 7-3 to the over when they are a home favorite in a range of 3.5 to 7 points. 10* OVER the total in Dallas

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #105 Thursday 8* OVER the total in Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears @ 12:30 ET - Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky is likely going to be out for this game. We've seen a drop in the total leading up to this game because of that fact. However, though back-up QB Chase Daniel doesn't have many starts in his NFL career, he has been around the league for quite a few seasons now. When he played in Week 3 of the preseason this year (keep in mind that is the week when the starters play the most) Daniel actually performed quite well. Also, he does have good running ability which poses another threat against the Lions defense. This is the first of back to back road games for the Bears and that is a situation in which Chicago is on a 12-2 run to the over! In November games, the Bears are on a long-term 7-2 run to the over. Detroit is on a run of 4-2 to the over in home games with a posted total between 42.5 and 45 points. The Lions have averaged 22.3 points per game in their last 4 games versus the Bears. Chicago's pass defense has allowed 273.5 passing yards per game in their last 2 road games. The Lions pass defense has allowed 339.5 passing yards per game in their last two games. You know Lions QB Matthew Stafford will be fired up about this Thanksgiving match-up and I expect Bears QB Daniel to perform much better than many are expecting. The result should be plenty of points so take advantage of the low total posted on this game. 8* OVER the total in Detroit

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #475 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Rams vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:15 ET - I know this total seems "nuts" but the fact is both teams play fast, both teams have great offenses, both teams have very suspect defenses, and the weather in Los Angeles is going to be perfect for this game. Add up all these factors and I just don't see very many defensive stops at all. Both teams will move the ball extremely well and we should see plenty of touchdowns in this one. The over is 5-0 (including 3-0 this season) when the Chiefs are an underdog in a range of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Overall, the over is 8-2 the last 10 times Kansas City has been an underdog. The Rams are 7-2 to the over when off a win over a division rival. Also, Los Angeles is 29-15 as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points (including 4-1 to the over in recent seasons). The Rams are 22-6 to the over when they are a non-divisional favorite of more than 3 points! The Chiefs are allowing 30.4 points per game on the road this season. The Rams have allowed 34.3 points per game their last 3 games. These two teams each average at least 33.5 points per game on offense too. In other words, this is simply a shootout in the making. Adding to the value is the fact that each team has a bye week on deck. What that means is that each of these defenses has had week after week of action and is pretty worn down at this point in the year. Yes this total is big but it is fully justified. I am expecting this one gets well into the seventies! 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Rams

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #457 Sunday 10* Top Play Minnesota Vikings (+) @ Chicago Bears @ 8:20 ET - Huge game in the NFC North and a rare situation in that the Vikings are having to look UP in the standings at the Bears! Minnesota has won 3 straight games against Chicago and the Vikings are also off their bye week. They will be "more than ready" in this opportunity to leapfrog the Bears for the top spot in the division. Even though Chicago has won 3 straight games, those victories all came against teams that not only have losing records on the season but actually each have only 3 wins on the season! The Vikings have played a tougher schedule than the Bears this season and yet have managed to hang "right there" with Chicago in the standings. Keep in mind the Vikings got an ATS win (or at worst "push") at the LA Rams earlier this season, they also beat the defending Super Bowl Champions in an outright upset AT Philly, and they also outgained the Saints by over 150 yards in their loss to New Orleans! Those are some strong performances against respectable teams and I feel we're getting great value here against a Bears team that, though improved, still has to show they can rise up in a huge game like this. Keep in mind that Chicago hasn't played a playoff game since 2010. The Vikings have played in 3 playoff games in the past 3 seasons under head coach Mike Zimmer. The reason I mention this is because this game is going to be played at a "playoff-level intensity" and the battle-tested Vikings have an edge in this type of game in my opinion. Note that head coach Zimmer has produced a 13-1 ATS record his last 14 in games against teams that are off a SU win by a double digit margin in their prior game. Also, Zimmer is 16-5 ATS when off a divisional game. The Bears are on a 5-16 ATS run when playing the 2nd of B2B home games. Last, but certainly not least, here is an interesting "kicker" to wrap this one up. Chicago is 0-12 ATS in divisional games when they are off a double digit SU win in which they also scored more than 28 points. Beautiful set-up here. 10* MINNESOTA

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #459 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ New Orleans Saints @ 4:25 ET - The Saints are on a tremendous roll and looking like the best team in the NFL. The Eagles have played this season as just a shadow of the team that, in February, staked their claim as the best team in the NFL. Now Philadelphia gets a chance to knock their replacement, New Orleans, off their pedestal. I know this is a contrarian play but it is the type of situation that has cashed for me so many times in the past, it is the reason it is worthy of big investment for me in this situation Sunday. The Saints have won 8 straight games SU and they've won 7 straight games ATS. Conversely, the Eagles have lost 4 of their last 6 games SU. Also, Philadelphia is on an ugly 2-6 ATS skid since winning and covering their opening game this season. Why then the play on the Eagles? There is still plenty of talent on this team. Ever since the ugly road loss at Tampa Bay they've played better away from Philly this season than they have at home. They lost in OT at Tennessee but crushed the Giants in New York and beat the Jaguars in London. Granted not great teams but they've not lost a road game by more than 6 points all season. Even that ugly loss to TB was decided by just 6 points. In fact, the Eagles blowout win over the Giants is the only game they've been involved in this season that was decided by more than 7 points. The point is that these are still the defending super bowl champs and they are not an easy team to blowout no matter who you are. They are a strong team in the trenches on both sides of the ball and offensive lineman Lane Johnson has been upgraded to probable for this game. The Eagles are a much better team (proven by long-term records) when Johnson is out there. This is a key to success on offense, and keep in mind, the Saints defense ranks 27th based on points allowed this season. Yes New Orleans has a fantastic offense but the Eagles defense ranks 5th based on points allowed this season. Philadelphia has a dangerous pass rush and also does a great job of stopping the run. The Saints defense is one of the worst in the league for qb sacks. New Orleans is 3-7 ATS as a home favorite in non-divisional action and they have a big divisional game with Falcons on deck. The Eagles are 4-1 ATS as a road dog. Also, under coach Doug Pederson, Philly is 5-1 ATS when off a SU loss and facing an opponent that is off a SU win by double digits. That system fits perfectly here as the Saints blasted the Bengals last week. Also, one final "kicker" here that is also in play. New Orleans is 0-7 ATS when off a SU win by double digits and facing a non-divisional opponent that has a looking record on the season! Don't be surprised if the Eagles pull off the shocker here and win this game outright to improve on the ugly 4-5 season record they have. At the very least, they should get the cover and stay inside this inflated number! 10* PHILADELPHIA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #454 Sunday 8* Atlanta Falcons (-) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 1 ET - Good line value here because, as stated before, the betting markets have a short term memory. As a result, in a case like this, because the Cowboys are off the upset win of the Eagles and the Falcons are off an upset loss to the Browns, this line is being kept lower than it should be. The fact is that Atlanta had turned the corner before losing at Cleveland as they had won 3 straight. Also, Dallas had lost all 4 road games prior to that upset win. Now, in large part because of last week's results, we're able to get the Falcons laying just a field goal at home against the Cowboys. In games 9 through 12 of a season, Atlanta is 7-0 ATS when facing a team that has a losing record on the season and is off a SU divisional win. Of course that system fits perfectly here with the 4-5 Cowboys off the big upset at Philly. The Falcons have dominated Dallas in recent meetings and, in fact, the Cowboys are a poor 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games versus NFC South opponents. That means this play is supported by combined edges on a 17-1 / 94% ATS run. 8* ATLANTA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #471 Sunday 8* Pittsburgh Steelers (-) @ Jacksonville Jaguars @ 1 ET - This line was up around a TD and has dropped to a 5 as of early Sunday morning. In typical contrarian fashion I am fading the move and laying the points with the road favorite here. Many are surprised to see a team that came inches from the super bowl last season getting so many points on their home field. However, the Jaguars have faded big time this season and can't be trusted while the Steelers offense is rolling and should be able to pile up plenty of points here. Pittsburgh has averaged 35.4 points their last 5 games. Jacksonville has allowed 28.6 points per game their last 5 games. The Steelers have won and covered 5 straight games while the Jaguars have lost 5 straight games SU and also have not gotten a single ATS win during this streak. There are two other keys here besides the current level of play of these team teams. The Steelers have a rest edge here since they had the Thursday game last week and also, the big one is that Pittsburgh has revenge from January's playoff loss (at home!) to the Jaguars. It is payback time here. I know Jacksonville has good ATS history versus the Steelers, particularly when at home, but this Jags team is a mess right now. Also, as home dog of 3.5 to 7 points, Jacksonville is a long-term 9-20 ATS! I also like the fact that the Steelers are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games against teams with a losing record. That SU dominance is noteworthy here as the team that has been the SU winner in every single Jaguars game and every single Pittsburgh game this season has been the ATS winner. Look for that trend to remain perfect here as the Steelers win and get the road cover in doing so. 8* PITTSBURGH

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #307 Thursday 10* Top Play Green Bay Packers (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 8:20 ET - Seattle has home field edge here but, really, what else do they have? That is my point in looking at the Seahawks this season. Yes, they burned me last week as they stayed inside the big number at LA against the Rams. However, Seattle is still one of the worst teams in the league in terms of sack percentage allowed while Green Bay ranks roughly in the middle. Also, the Seahawks sack percentage on defense is strong but the Packers are even stronger. I will also take Aaron Rodgers over Russell Wilson any day of the week as my QB. I respect Wilson but the point is Seattle plays in a very weak NFC West because it only has the Rams as the Cardinals and 49ers struggles continue. Conversely, the Packers are annually dealing with the Vikings and now the Bears have risen up from the depths of mediocrity. Statistically, in terms of yardage allowed, these two defenses are very similar. Offense is where the edge goes to the Packers are they are averaging nearly 100 yards more through the air than the Seahawks are this season. I realize Seattle put up some big numbers last week on offense but they did take advantage of catching the Rams off that tough game with the Saints (LA still nearly covered anyway). The Seahawks last 3 wins have come against 3 teams that have a combined record of 6-18 SU on the season. I know the Packers haven't been world-beaters either but I like the fact they were absolutely "in the game" in their losses to the Rams and Patriots and their loss to Detroit was despite the Packers outgaining the Lions by 257 yards! I know they are NOT (and it is in black and white what matters most) but Green Bay could easily be 6-0 their last 6 games. With Rodgers at the helm they are always a threat and the Packers, ever since the lost to the Seahawks twice in 2014 (reg ssn and P/O) have dominated Seattle since. GB is 3-0 with the 3 victories over Seattle coming by a combined score of 82-36. The Packers are 6-3 ATS their last 9 played in weeks 10 through 13. This is their time of year for their annual playoff push! The last 26 times Seattle has been a favorite they have covered just 10 times! 10* GREEN BAY

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #275 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Francisco 49ers vs New York Giants @ 8:15 ET - Both teams come in with extra rest as the Niners last game was a Thursday game when they demolished the Raiders as QB Nick Mullens had a huge debut. As for the Giants, they are coming off their bye week and now QB Eli Manning will be going for his 3rd straight game with at least 300 passing yards. I expect him to get it and for that to be a difference maker here. Last week's game for San Francisco saw them face an Oakland team that has been dysfunctional. That is why the Raiders managed a meager 3 points in that contest. The Giants, though they have issues, still have guys like Odell Beckham Jr that love the Monday night spotlight and can make big plays and the fact is the 49ers defense is nothing special. In fact, San Francisco's last two games were against the bumbling Raiders and the near-death offense of the Cardinals! That is why the 49ers recent numbers on defense look good. Prior to this, San Francisco allowed an average of 31 points per game in the first 7 games this season! As for the Giants defense, they've allowed at least 20 points in all 8 of their games this season. Also, prior to holding the Redskins to 20 points in their final game before the bye week, New York had allowed an average of 31 points per game in their 4 prior games. The Giants over is 2-0 this season in road games with a posted total between 42.5 and 45 points and also 2-0 the past two seasons when off their bye week. The 49ers last 3 games have remained under the total but, prior to this, the over was 7-1 in their 8 previous games! That type of trending resumes tonight. 10* OVER the total in San Francisco

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #273 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - Philadelphia is always fired up when the Eagles host the Cowboys. However, last season's match-up in Philly was a RARE exception! It was the final regular season game and meant nothing to the Eagles as their playoff position was clinched and they were more concerned with marching toward the super bowl than facing the Cowboys. Not surprisingly the game ended up an ugly 6-0 Dallas win. This game will play out much differently as it has plenty of meaning and, of course, the Eagles are ready for payback after Dallas handed them their only home loss last season. Though I do expect Philadelphia to win this game, they are a very pricey favorite and I feel the best value will prove to be with the total. The Eagles averaged 29 points per game in their last 3 meetings with Dallas that actually were meaningful games. As for the Cowboys, they only scored 14 points last week but they moved the ball a little better than that point total would indicate. Remember that Dallas had previously averaged 25 points per game in their 4 prior games. I know a lot of trends and angles are pointing to the under here but I don't see the Cowboys D stopping a very determined (and talented) Eagles offense that has even more weapons now thanks to acquisitions and improved health. At the same time the Cowboys should enjoy success against an Eagles D that has collapsed at times in recent home games (losses to Carolina and Minnesota). Look for plenty of points here as the trends pointing to under just don't matter here based on the situational aspects of this match-up. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #272 Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams (-) vs Seattle Seahawks @ 4:25 ET - Surprisingly the early indication on this one, prior to gameday, is that the Seahawks are the popular choice. Of course it makes sense as many remember that Seattle lost by just two points in the prior meeting this season plus many are feeling the Rams will suffer "unbeaten letdown" after their undefeated start to the season ended last week in New Orleans. Ladies and gentlemen, that game against the Saints was a hard-fought battle and Los Angeles has nothing to hang their heads about in regards to that defeat. In other words, look for the Rams to come out blazing hot here looking to atone for that defeat and there is no way the Seahawks can match them score for score. That is why I am very willing to lay a sizable number here as this game has rout written all over it. Some are even mentioning that the Rams have the trip to Mexico City on deck against the Chiefs, one of the AFC's best. The fact is that a non-conference match-up, no matter where it is played, does not take precedence over a divisional match-up! Also, this is especially true this time around because the Seahawks beat the Rams in their last visit to LA! The Seahawks are on a 3-8 ATS run in games played on grass. The Rams are 7-0 SU and 4-2-1 ATS in games played on grass this season. Los Angeles has the much stronger passing attack in this match-up and, off a loss, they won't take their foot off the gas in this match-up. The Seahawks are averaging just 23 points per game this season. The Rams have scored at least 33 points in 7 of their 9 games. I like my odds for a double digit cover in this one! 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #260 Sunday 8* Tennessee Titans (+) vs New England Patriots @ 1 ET - This is a contrarian play because the betting markets have a short-term memory. In their minds the best bet here is to fade the Titans with the almighty Patriots because, well, New England tends to be a covering machine PLUS the key factor that Tennessee is on a short week. However, that Monday Night win over the Cowboys gives a huge confidence boost for the Titans heading into this match-up with the Patriots. I love the fact that Tennessee also gets this game at home, the Pats Rob Gronkowski may not play, and the Titans have playoff revenge from that ugly loss at Foxboro in January. While it is true that New England has the better offense in this match-up, it is also true that Tennessee has the better defense. I like the physical style that the Titans play and feel that, especially at home with playoff loss revenge, they are going to give the Patriots a lot of trouble in this game. Tom Brady and New England is off that big showdown win versus Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay. Also, the Titans are on a 5-1 ATS run as a dog and this is their only home game in the month of November! In fact, it is Tennessee's only home game between mid-October and early December so, with playoff revenge also factored in, you know this one has been circled in red on the Titans calendars! The Titans are also 8-4 ATS their last 12 games against teams with a winning record and again, are being undervalued here in my opinion. Grab the hungry home dog! 8* TENNESSEE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #265 Sunday 8* Detroit Lions (+) @ Chicago Bears @ 1 ET - The Bears thoroughly obliterated the Bills last week, right? After all the final score was Chicago 41, Buffalo 9. Well, ladies and gentlemen, the fact is that the Bears were actually outgained in that game! Chicago only had 180 yards of total offense and yet they had 41 points. It was a turnover-fueled win for the Bears and you can see where I am going with this. It absolutely has led to significant line value this week for a Lions team that is coming off a deceiving final score of their own and will absolutely be ready for this divisional match-up. Detroit did lose at Minnesota last week by a margin of 15 points but they were only outgained by 74 yards. Also, the Lions have been ready for their biggest games. Again, the Vikings loss was a bit of a faulty final score and in their only other divisional game so far this season they beat Green Bay by 8. The other big game for Detroit this season was when they faced head coach Matt Patricia's prior team, the Patriots, and indeed the Lions got the upset win in that game. The point is that this divisional game at Chicago is certainly one that falls into the "important" category for Patricia and Company. That means you can expect a huge effort here and the Bears are simply over-valued. None of the 5 teams that Chicago has beaten this season has a winning record an the combined record of those teams is 14-28 for a .333 winning percentage. To see them as a TD favorite here shows just how skewed public perception can get. By the way, the Lions are on a 6-2 SU and ATS run in November games and the Bears are on a 6-15 ATS (and 4-17 SU!) run in all games with a posted total between 42.5 and 49 points. 8* DETROIT

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #108 Thursday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (-) vs Carolina Panthers @ 8:20 ET - Everyone is looking to fade the Steelers here because they're off the big game against the Ravens. However, when they faced Baltimore earlier this season they then blasted an NFC South foe in their very next games as Pittsburgh crushed the Falcons 41-17. In fact it was that very game that began the current run for the Steelers and they've never looked back. Very quietly this team has made tremendous progress on defense but many are not taking notice. Pittsburgh has allowed just 18 points per game their last 4 games and the yardage allowed is even more impressive. The Steelers have given up only 276 yards per game in their last 4 games, all wins! Those who like historical data will like the fact that Pittsburgh is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games versus the Panthers. Overall, the Steelers have excelled against the NFC with a 10-5 ATS in their last 15. Carolina is 2-7 ATS long-term in Thursday games including 0-3 ATS in recent seasons. The Panthers road games this season saw them lose at Atlanta and at Washington. The only road win they had was at Philly and, though they certainly deserve some credit for the comeback, the Eagles certainly "helped" Carolina rally late from a 17-0 deficit. The point is that the markets are giving a little too much credit to the Panthers right now in my opinion and not enough to a Steelers team that is really starting to put it together on defense plus has the home field edge here. The Panthers are off 3 straight wins but they aren't known for rattling off long winning streaks. Prior to last week's win and cover Carolina was 3-7 SU and 2-8 ATS when entering a game on a winning streak of 2 or more games. The Steelers have the better passing attack offensively and, in terms of pass defense, the Panthers have allowed an average of 285 passing yards in 6 of their 7 last games (they had one exceptional game against the Redskins in this stretch). The Steelers have allowed just 192 passing yards per game their last 3 games. I respect the Panthers but this is the only home game for Pittsburgh between late October and early December and they're ready to make the most of it. 10* PITTSBURGH

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #473 Monday 8* Tennessee Titans (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:15 ET - Though it may seem tough to back a team off 3 straight losses, going contrarian is absolutely the way to go here. Indeed, the Titans have lost 3 straight games but 2 of the 3 losses came by 1 point. That said, there is some solid line value here with grabbing the points. Tennessee is 5-1 ATS the last 6 times they've been a dog. Also, the Titans are on a long-term 6-0 ATS run in Monday night football games. When Tennessee enters a game on a SU losing streak of 2 or more games, the Titans have gone 5-0 ATS! The Cowboys have covered just 1 game in their last 5 contests. Also, 1 of their 3 SU wins this season came by just 2 points. Again, the key point being here that there is value with having the points in this one. Both teams are very hungry as they each are coming off a bye week that followed a losing effort in their most recent game. All that untapped energy now has been building for extra time and I look for a tight, physical contest. That is precisely the type of game where, more often than not, having those points on your side proves to be key! Note that the Titans are a perfect 7-0 ATS the last 7 times they've entered a game as a dog of more than 3 points against an NFC foe that has a losing record! Also, under Jason Garrett, the Cowboys are 4-9 ATS when off a loss to a division rival in their prior game. Not only is Dallas off a loss to the Redskins, they have a big game at Philly on deck Sunday night. Grab the points. 8* TENNESSEE

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #471 Sunday 8* Green Bay Packers (+) @ New England Patriots @ 8:20 ET - While it is true the Packers are going all the way from a game on the West Coast to one on the East Coast, it is also true that the Patriots are coming off a Monday night game. The point is that the short rest for New England really negates any edge they would have had based on the Green Bay situation. Also, not to get too technical but, the fact is that with this being a night game, going from the West Coast to the East Coast loses some of its problem factor. As for the match-up here, I love the fact that the Patriots had a very fortunate cover last week at Buffalo. The Pats won the game by 19 points but outgained the Bills by only 54 yards. Now instead of facing a Bills team with a very tenuous back-up QB situation, the Patriots face one of the game's best in Aaron Rodgers. Also, you know that Rodgers (and the entire Packers team) is going to be extremely hungry here. Not only did they lose late at LA last week, they also suffered a fumble on the final kick-off from the Rams. It was a horrible gaffe and part of what cost that kick returner his spot on the team as he was released after that! The fact of the matter is that the Packers had plenty of time to try and get into field goal range...especially with Rodgers at the helm. As a result, there is simply no discounting the hunger that this Green Bay team has coming into this game. The Packers want this game and it is with good reason that the odds makers opened this one up with NE as less than a TD favorite. Overall the Packers pass defense ranks much better than the Patriots does. As for the offense, Green Bay holds the overall edge there as well on the season. You can see why I like getting a hungry dog like the Packers when they've got numbers like this to support them as well! There is also an interesting ATS stat here that fits perfectly. The Packers, under head coach Mike McCarthy, with last week's cover at the Rams improved to 10-1 ATS when they face an opponent that is off back to back away games. LA was off of 3 straight road games last week and note that the Pats are off B2B road games heading into this one. Grab the generous points here as an outright upset certainly would not surprise but I love the insurance of the points in this one! 8* GREEN BAY

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #470 Sunday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints (+) vs Los Angeles Rams @ 4:25 ET - When an 8-0 team opens up at nearly a pick'em line it is not a mistake. However, the markets usually jump all over these types of situations and, sure enough, that is precisely what happened here. LA has gone from roughly a pick to a -2.5 as of Saturday night and I love the value we're getting here with the Saints. How many teams go undefeated in an NFL season? It is RARE as you know and, the point is, even though this is only the half-way point of the season, you know a loss is likely coming for LA sooner rather than later and this look likes the perfect spot for it! The Saints are on a roll and I know they were out-gained significantly by the Vikings last week but, the point is, New Orleans continues to find a way to win and their confidence is sky-high and they are at home for this one!  A lot of factors going in their favor here. Also, for a FIFTH straight week, the Rams are playing in a different city. Seattle has gone from Seattle to San Francisco to Denver to home in Los Angeles and now right back on the road again at New Orleans. The Saints are on a 6-0 SU run and 5-0 ATS run so they are the ideal team to step up and knock off the Rams here on Sunday. Also, New Orleans is 6-2 ATS their last 8 as a home dog. The Saints have a long-term reputation for stepping up in games against winning teams. Not only did they knock off the Vikings last week but also the Redskins early this season. In fact New Orleans entered this season 12-1 ATS in games against NFC foes with a winning percentage greater than 66.6% and I look for another cover here as I do expect the upset win but definitely will grab the points for insurance. With last week's win and cover against a Vikings team that was on a winning streak, the Saints are now 14-3 ATS under head coach Sean Payton when they're on a SU winning streak of 2 or more games and also facing an opponent on a winning streak of 2 or more games. Keep in mind, though the Rams are 8-0 SU on the season they've covered just once in their last 5 games. Great home dog value with the Saints in this one. 10* NEW ORLEANS

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #461 Sunday 8* Atlanta Falcons (+) @ Washington Redskins @ 1 ET - The Falcons have an edge here coming off their bye week. The Redskins are off a big divisional battle with the Giants last week. Washington is in an ugly 2-8 ATS when they are coming off a divisional game and facing an NFC opponent. The Redskins are also 0-6 ATS in games where they are favored by more than one point against an NFC South opponent. Washington, under coach Jay Gruden, is also a disastrous 1-9 ATS when they are a home favorite against an opponent off a home game. Of course the Falcons, prior to their bye, got the win over the Giants at home in Atlanta and New York rallied for the cover in that game. In other words, there is some additional line value here because of the non-covering result in that game for Atlanta. The Falcons, under Dan Quinn, are 9-2 when they are an underdog after being a SU winner in their prior game. The Redskins defense has been strong overall this season but they rank only in the middle of the pack against the pass. That is an issue here as the Falcons strength on offense is their passing game as it ranks as one of the best in the NFL. The Redskins passing attack ranks as one of the worst in the league and I feel Washington is over-valued at this point in the season with their 4-2 record while the Falcons are much better than their 3-4 record is showing the betting markets. The result? Big value! 8* ATLANTA

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #453 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Browns vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 1 ET - This may seem like a lot of points since the game involves the perennially awful Browns. However, Cleveland's offense has looked a little better at times this season and this is an interesting match-up as it features Baker Mayfield's Browns going against Pat Mahomes' Chiefs. Keep in in mind these guys last met in 2016 when Mayfield was at Oklahoma and Mahomes was at Texas Tech. That game totaled a ridiculous 1,700 yards of offense. Now, of course, we're not likely to see more than a third of that total in this "rematch" but just now that these guys are doing to do everything they can to outdo each other there. Also, as November days go in Cleveland, Sunday is going to be one of the more exceptionally nice days you'll have there. Mild air with highs in the upper 50s and a south wind and no precipitation. It sets up well for both of the offenses to thrive. The Chiefs rank among the best offenses in the league but also among the worst defenses! The Browns offense, as noted above, has been "spotty" but they'll take advantage of facing a weak defense in this one while, at the same time, Cleveland's biggest weakness is their defense. Going through a coaching change is unlikely to help in terms of "continuity on defense" and Mahomes and the Chiefs pick them apart all day long in this one. Look for the over to improve to 4-1 in Kansas City's road games this season while the Browns O/U improves to 5-2 in games against AFC opponents on the year. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Game #307 Thursday NFL 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Francisco 49ers vs Oakland Raiders @ 8:20 ET - The Niners CJ Beathard is likely to play here. The fact is that even if Nick Mullens got the call at QB is there really anybody that can not move the ball on this Raiders defense. Oakland has been awful on that side of the ball as they keep trying different combinations and nothing is working and the unit is truly in disarray. The Raiders have allowed an average of 31.1 points per game this season. The Niners haven't been much better in that department as they've allowed 29.5 points per game so far on the year. One thing that is going well for the Raiders is that they're offense got going last week as QB Derek Carr threw for 3 TDs and Oakland scored 28 points. I am well aware of the fact that the numbers on offense for each of these teams in the season leave something to be desired, to say the least. However, you simply can't ignore how bad these defenses have been. Yes the Niners held the Cards in check last week but everybody shuts down Arizona this season. The fact is that the 49ers previously allowed 28 points or more in 5 straight games! Prior to last week's under, the over was 5-1 in San Francisco's 6 prior games. Also, the lone under in that stretch did total 49 points. The over is 7-3 the last 10 49ers non-conference games. The over is 5-2 the last 7 times that Oakland has been a road dog of 3 points or less. Take advantage of the drop on this O/U as the defensive play of these two teams simply does not justify it and the weather will be great for this one too. 10* OVER the total in San Francisco

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #276 Monday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (+) vs New England Patriots @ 8:15 ET - This one falls under the old "ugly home dog" theory but it fits well. The team nobody wants, Buffalo, is at home in a divisional game and down to their 2nd string quarterback, and they're hosting the almighty Patriots - a public team that people love to bet. You can see where I am going with this as, in typical contrarian fashion, I am backing the unpopular team. Of course this is not without good reason. For one thing, I fully expect the Bills to get a much better game from back-up QB Derek Anderson as he now makes his 2nd start. Additionally, Buffalo's defense has played much better than many realize. Looking at their points allowed this season (25 per game and similar to Patriots) you'd probably be surprised to hear that the Bills defense is allowing only 321 yards per game while the Pats are allowing 390 yards per game. Of course the Patriots are the much better offense but I love the fact we're getting the Bills plus two touchdowns now as a divisional home dog in their only primetime game of the season and they are at home. Having a rough start to the season, this a rare chance for Buffalo to truly shine with the ESPN cameras rolling and facing Tom Brady and Co. You know the Bills are going to bring a huge effort here and are highly motivated. The Bills are 10-0 ATS when they are off B2B SU losses and facing a team with a winning record. Remember that game at Minnesota this season? The Vikings were 1-0-1 at the time and the Bills were off B2B SU losses. That was the 10th straight ATS win for Buffalo in this situation and I look it go to 11-0 ATS tonight as the Bills keep this one much closer than many are expecting. By the way, in addition to the 10-0 ATS factor tonight, there are two other perfect ones worth noting! The Patriots are 0-6 ATS as divisional road favorite of more than 8 points. Also, NE head coach Bill Belichick is 0-7 ATS in road games versus a divisional opponent when that divisional foe is off a double digit loss and playing with revenge. Of course that system fits perfectly here as Buffalo got blasted by 32 at Indianapolis last week and have revenge against the Pats as they got swept by them last season. Combined edges above are 23-0 / 100% for the ugly road dog! Grab the points. 10* BUFFALO

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #273 Sunday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints (-) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 8:20 ET - Huge revenge game for Saints as, of course, they were knocked out of the playoffs last year by the Vikings. The way long-time New Orleans QB Drew Brees is playing right now I just don't see any way anyone could go against him. The Saints offense has been a machine of late and their defense also has been much improved. Of course there is no shortage of motivation here either. The kicker is that, since this game is on the road, we're getting line value as the Saints are as little as a 1 point favorite. In fact for those of you that have access to the money line, that is the way to play this one as the money line is in the pick'em range which is a great value! In terms of technical value here, the Saints last two wins have come against teams that currently have a winning record this season and that includes a blowout victory over a Redskins team that is currently 4-2. As for the Vikings, they have not beaten a team this season that currently has a winning record entering this week's action. In fact, the teams the Vikes have victories over has a combined 8-20 SU record this season. I also love the fact that New Orleans is 9-0 ATS in October games! Also, the Saints are 5-0 ATS as road favorites versus the NFC North and their head coach Sean Payton is 13-3 ATS in his career when his team is off B2B SU wins and facing a team that is also off B2B SU wins. Both teams are on winning streaks here so that system fits and I look for a road rout here. 10* NEW ORLEANS

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #271 Sunday NFL 8* Green Bay Packers (+) @ Los Angeles Rams @ 4:25 ET - Of course the public will be enticed to grab the undefeated team at home here but the contrarian viewpoint is to back the dog that has a great shot at the upset and yet is catching more than a TD here. To go on the road and beat a streaking team like the Packers, you need to be strong at the QB position. That said, a team led by Aaron Rodgers at QB plus coming off a bye week is certainly a strong underdog. The Rams are finally back home but keep in mind this was preceded by 3 straight road games so Los Angeles isn't exactly "rested" at this point in time. Also, last week's big win at San Francisco was the first cover for the Rams in their last 4 games. That was a blowout win on the scoreboard but note it was fueled by turnovers. The yardage was very nearly equal in that game but the 49ers were simply done in by turnovers. Hence the line value this week. Also this is the first time this season that LA is facing a team with a winning record entering the game and that is noteworthy as the Rams are 4-8 ATS their last 12 in games against teams with a winning record. Green Bay is a long-term 22-11 SU when coming off a bye week. Also, the Packers are 8-3 ATS when a road dog of 7.5 to 10 points. Statistically these teams are not much different and yet when you look at the records it looks like the Rams are so much better than the Pack. That is simply not the case and the result is huge value here. 8* GREEN BAY

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #255 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos @ 1 ET - Fantastic weather in Kansas City expected on Sunday afternoon with high temperatures rising to near 70 degrees and no precipitation and winds expected to top out at 10 to 12 mph. That said, the Broncos aren't going to stop the Chiefs on their home field. I am well aware of what happened at Denver early this season but that late rally was a sign of things to come from this powerhouse KC offense and they're not going to be stopped at Arrowhead. Besides that Denver's defense is still over-rated. The Broncos D just doesn't have the same level of personnel they had in the "glory years" and their dominating effort against a league-worst Cardinals team doesn't really tell you much. What does tell you a lot is that, prior that game, the Broncos defense had been gouged for an average of 467.3 yards per game and that included the game versus KC as well as a game against the Jets! You read that right, the Broncos allowed over 500 yards to the New York Jets! So while Kansas City is sure to get their points here the key to the value is that the Chiefs defense can't stop anybody. Well, let me correct that, just like the Broncos, they are off of one good game on defense as KC just stopped the Bengals last week. But lets not forget they previously allowed 475 yards or more in 4 of their first 6 games this season! KC averages 313 passing yards per game but is giving up 316 passing yards per game. That my friends is an invitation for an over. Of course the Broncos have revenge here and Denver is 8-3 to the over when playing with revenge. The over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams and I look for another one here. 10* OVER the total in Kansas City

Ultra Early Smash - Rickenbach NFL Game #251 Sunday NFL 8* Philadelphia Eagles (+) vs Jacksonville Jaguars @ 9:30 AM ET (game played in London, UK) - I am going to list four names that tells you why you should play the Eagles here. Carson Wentz, Nick Foles, Blake Bortles, Cody Kessler. The fact is that the Jaguars would take EITHER of the Eagles top two quarterbacks over their TOP quarterback. There is just no comparison and though you certainly can't base a play on just one position on the field, the fact is that QB is definitely the most important position and the Jaguars offense is a mess right now. They have struggled to the ball in each of their past two games plus have turned the ball over an average of 3.3 times per game their last 4 games. Compounding the potential QB issues here, this is a road game for both teams which certainly favors the Eagles. Philadelphia can play anytime anywhere and has turned the ball over a total of just ONE time in their past two road games. The Jaguars have turned the ball over 7 times in their past road games. Also, Jacksonville has been held to 14 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games. It is hard to win when you're not scoring points. As for the Jaguars defense, they have allowed an average of 35 points and 401 yards per game in their past two road games. The Jags are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against NFC teams. Remember when the Eagles blasted the Giants two weeks ago? That win improved Philly to 11-1 ATS when, in Game 5 through 8 of a season, they entered a game with a losing record and were facing a team that was off back to back SU losses. That system fits here too! 8* PHILADELPHIA

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #104 Thursday NFL 10* Houston Texans (-) vs Miami Dolphins @ 8:20 ET - The Dolphins are going with Brock Osweiler at QB as Ryan Tannehill is still dealing with his shoulder injury. Though Osweiler has done fairly well since stepping in, both of his starts were at home in Miami. Now he and the Dolphins are in the road and in what will be a very hostile environment for Osweiler and his teammates. Osweiler is a former Texan that had a huge contract and failed in Houston and his relationship with Texans head coach Bill O'Brien was not good to say the least. Suffice to say O'Brien and the entire Houston team are "amped up" for this game. It is a primetime weeknight game and they will make the most of it. The Texans defense is fierce including great pass rush abilities and this will force Osweiler into mistakes. Being without their two top wide receivers is also a detriment to the Dolphins offense for this one. Note that Miami is averaging a paltry 14.7 points per game on 242 yards per game on the road this season. The Texans offense is averaging 22.1 points per game on 372 yards per game this season. Houston has won 4 straight games while the Dolphins have lost 3 of their last 4 games including each of their last two road games. Miami is on a 5-9 ATS run in games against teams with a winning record and the Dolphins also are on a 3-8 ATS run as an away dog. The Texans have won 7 of the 8 meetings between these teams including all 4 at home and there is some -7 out there as of early Thursday morning. Grab it and look for a home blowout here as DeShaun Watson has a big game at QB for the Texans. Miami has allowed an average of 467 yards per game their past two games. 10* HOUSTON

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #475 Monday 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) @ Atlanta Falcons @ 8:15 ET - This line looked funny to many when it first was posted as, even though the Falcons have had a rather tough start this season, they are still at home here and Atlanta was in the Super Bowl two seasons ago and made the playoffs last season. Considering those factors as well as the fact that the Giants went 3-13 last year and have started this year 1-5, it is no wonder why Atlanta is getting plenty of love from the public in this one. Don't be fooled ladies and gentlemen as this game was priced this way for a reason and the sharp money is on the Giants. On Thursday night football the G-men were embarrassed by the division rival Eagles but their season is not over yet. Both Philly and the Cowboys lost yesterday and now have losing records on the season. The Giants have a shot at the NFC East first-place Redskins next week. In other words, New York knows that it just takes back to back wins to be right back in the thick of things in their divisional race. After getting embarrassed in the game against the Eagles last Thursday, the Giants D is undoubtedly going to bring a huge effort this week and they do have the better defense in this match-up with the Falcons. Although Atlanta has a bye on deck, they are actually just 1-5 ATS when playing the week before a bye. The Giants, when a road dog in non-divisional action, are on a 5-1 ATS run. The Giants are also on an incredible 9-0-1 ATS run when they are off a Thursday game. The Falcons are off a key win versus the Buccaneers are Atlanta is on an 0-7 ATS run after facing Tampa Bay. That means we have a combined 16-0 / 100% PERFECT edge here in favor of the road dog! 10* NEW YORK GIANTS

Total of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #464 Sunday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Kansas City Chiefs vs Cincinnati Bengals @ 8:20 ET - The betting markets tend to have a short term memory and so a total like this ends up being over-inflated. Yes, the Chiefs are off the wild Monday night game with the Patriots but their two prior games were unders. Also, each of the Bengals last two games stayed under the total. Of course statistically one can make a case for plenty of points to be scored here but, keep in mind, each of these teams LOST their last game because they gave up too many points. All each of these teams is hearing entering this Monday night game is how they can't stop anyone. The point is that this is when professional pride kicks in and, with the Sunday night cameras rolling, these D's are going to bring a huge effort tonight. Both teams certainly respect their opponents offense here too so there will be a little bit of cat and mouse keep away where you may seem each team playing for short passes and some running plays mixed in in an attempt to win the game through ball control. After what happened last week, the fact is that neither one of these teams is interested in getting involved in a shootout. Keep in mind, although the Chiefs offense has struggled this season, the Bengals offense has averaged only 303.5 yards per game their past two games. Also, the Chiefs had allowed an average of just 21.3 points per game their 3 prior games before getting throttled at New England. The under has cashed 11 of 16 when the Bengals face a team with a winning record. Also, in games with a posted total of 49.5 points or more, Cincinnati's game have stayed under in 9 of their last 11. Additionally, 14 of the Chiefs last 20 home games have stayed under the total. With two teams whose defenses are each being "challenged" coming into this game, this big number should prove to be far too many points. 10* UNDER the total in Kansas City

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #469 Sunday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints (+) @ Baltimore Ravens @ 4:05 ET - A pair of hot teams matched up here but I like the value with the road dog that also has the better offense. The Saints have won 4 straight games and also are on an 8-0 ATS run in October games. The Ravens have played well this season but are still just 3-2 SU their last 5 games and they have a knack for falling into slumps as we get closer to the mid-point of the season. Baltimore is on a 3-8 ATS run in October games. The Ravens are also 2-6 ATS in non-conference games. When the Saints enter a game on a wining streak of 2 or more SU games, they have gone 9-4 ATS. Keep in mind New Orleans just had that huge MNF performance from Drew Brees and are now off their bye week. They are rested and ready while the Ravens have expended a lot of effort the past 3 weeks as all 3 games were on the road. Baltimore has defeated the Saints each of the last 3 meetings including in the Superdome against Brees and Company in 2014. That said, this triple-revenge game goes to the hungry rested road dog. 10* NEW ORLEANS

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #466 Sunday 8* New York Jets (+) vs Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET - The Viking are off back to back wins against NFC foes and have a big game on deck hosting another NFC foe as the Saints are up next for Minnesota. That said, a road trip to face an AFC foe that doesn't come across as "overly imposing" is unlikely to bring out the best in the Vikings. I love grabbing "ugly home dogs" in situations like this and the Jets should bring home the cash for us. New York enters off back to back wins and, with each victory, confidence is growing. That said, unlike the Vikings, the Jets do not have a big game on deck as they face the Bears next. In other words, New York is fully focused on this game especially because they won't be home again until mid-November. Look for the Jets to bring their "A game" and they are on a 10-2 ATS run in games played in weeks 5 through 9 of a season plus the Jets are on a 6-1 ATS run as a home dog in a range of 3.5 to 7 points. The Vikings are on a long-term run of 10-20 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. This is a contrarian, anti-public play as you know they'll be on the Vikings and you know what usually happens when the public has an enticing game like this to grab hold of...they usually go down in flames. Make the sharp play here. 8* NEW YORK JETS

Ultra Early Smash - Rickenbach NFL Game #451 Sunday 8* Tennessee Titans (+) vs Los Angeles Chargers @ 9:30 *AM* ET in London, UK - The Titans are off an embarrassing 21-0 shellacking that they took at the hands of the Ravens in Baltimore last week. Tennessee has now lost back to back games and a change of scenery is absolutely the best thing that can happen for a team that is struggling at the present time. For the Chargers, the last thing they needed was a trip to London, UK as Los Angeles had been rolling with 3 straight wins and demolished Cleveland last Sunday. Now LA tries to maintain focus and momentum heading across the pond. The Titans are 4-0 ATS when they enter a game off consecutive losses. The Chargers are facing a revenge-minded Tennessee team that lost by 8 two seasons ago when these teams met in San Diego. Payback time in London is on tap Sunday but I'll gladly grab the generous points being offered. Los Angeles is 0-4 ATS the week before a bye. Also, in games 5 through 9 of a season, the Chargers are 0-7 ATS when off a game where they scored more than 35 points and now facing team that does NOT have a winning record. Look for the 3-3 Titans to come up with at least the cover here. Combined edges of 15-0 ATS here in favor of the underdog! I'll take it! 8* TENNESSEE

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Game #302 Thursday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals (+) vs Denver Broncos @ 8:20 ET - The Cardinals are 12-1 ATS as a home dog of less than 7 points when playing a non-divisional opponent. Arizona is also a perfect 4-0 ATS in home games with a posted total between 38.5 and 42 points. As for the Broncos, under head coach Vance Joseph, they are 1-9 ATS in road games. Also, in games 5 through 8 of a season, Denver is 2-12 ATS when they are a favorite against a team that is off a SU loss by a double digit margin and that also is playing with revenge. That system fits the Cards perfectly here. Combining all the edges here and you have a 37-4 (90%) spot in favor of the hungry home dog here. Yes, both teams have been struggling this season but the Cardinals view this game as a rare chance to shine at home in prime-time action with all eyes of the football world watching. The Cards will be ready to go in a big way here. 10* ARIZONA

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NFL Game #277 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Green Bay Packers vs San Francisco 49ers @ 8:15 ET - The over is 7-1 in the Niners last 8 games. The over is 28-12 in the Packers last 40 games. Green Bay is averaging 300 passing yards per game this season and San Francisco had allowed 276 passing yards per game before holding Arizona in check last week. However, a lot of the reason for the Cardinals not accumulating a lot of yardage on this suspect 49ers defense is because five San Francisco turnovers essentially handed the Cards the game! The point is that Aaron Rodgers should be able to throw all over the Niners in this match-up. However, don't be surprised if CJ Beathard keeps the 49ers hanging around in this games (which is why I like the over here). San Francisco has averaged 294 passing yards per game the past two weeks. Also, the Niners have run for at least 147 yards in 3 of their last 4 games. The Packers have allowed at least 29 points in 3 of their last 4 games while San Francisco is allowing 29.2 points per game on the season. The 49ers are 9-4 to the over as an underdog in a range of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Packers are 9-3 to the over in their last dozen games against teams with a winning record. With their bye week on deck, Rodgers and Company won't hesitate to go all out here and this one turns into a "track meet" as a result with both teams moving quickly up and down the field. 10* OVER the total in Green Bay

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #276 Sunday 8* New England Patriots (-) vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:20 ET - The set up here is perfect. The Chiefs are 5-0 this season. Kansas City is also off of a "phony final" where they beat the Jaguars by 16 but were outgained by 78 yards. Patriots QB Tom Brady will be in "attack mode" all night on Sunday as the Chiefs pass defense is allowing a ridiculous 343 passing yards per game this season. New England has revenge here as they lost by 15 points to KC here in Foxboro to open up the 2017 NFL season. That is a loss that Bill Belichick certainly hasn't forgot and he rates a significant edge over Andy Reid in my opinion. Just like when he was with the Eagles, Reid has done a good job in most regular season games and then struggles in the post-season. Of course this is not a post-season game but it will play out like one as this is a big game in terms of vying for early season AFC supremacy. I don't see Belichick and Brady losing this game! The Chiefs are a long-term 22-37 ATS against AFC East teams. The Patriots are 7-1 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points and also 11-2 ATS in games where their posted total is 49.5 points or higher. Of course this game has a total much higher than that so that angle is definitely in play here and in a high-scoring game I'll take the veteran QB and the better head coach over the dynamic (but still inexperienced) Pat Mahomes and a head coach that is not known for winning games like this. Week 1 of last season was an aberration. 8* NEW ENGLAND

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #271 Sunday 10* Top Play Jacksonville Jaguars (-) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - The Jaguars are off a 16 point loss at Kansas City but Jacksonville actually outgained the Chiefs by 78 yards! The Jags were simply done in by turnovers but that is unlikely to be an issue today. Jacksonville turned the ball over 5 times last week but the Cowboys have forced only 4 turnovers TOTAL in their 5 games this season. Dallas only lost by 3 at Houston last week but it was a deceiving final score. The Cowboys got the push ATS in that game but were very fortunate for that as the Texans failed many times in the red zone. Houston outgained Dallas by 170 yards in the game and should have the game by about two TDs. Last week's "false final" results involving both of these teams is what is leading to solid line value here. Keep in mind the Jaguars should have beat the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game last season but blew a big lead inexplicably. In other words this is a team that was one step away from the Super Bowl last season and we're getting them off a loss here. As for the Cowboys, this is a team that continues to be in disarray and just can't find any solid footing or consistency. Their offensive line is not near what it use to be and this will be an issue as they face the attacking Jaguars defense. Dallas has just 1 ATS win in their 5 games this season. The Jaguars appear poised to improve to 10-5 SU and ATS in their last 15 games against teams with a losing record. 10* JACKSONVILLE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #264 Sunday 8* Atlanta Falcons (-) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 1 ET - The Falcons have lost 3 straight games and the Buccaneers have lost back to back games so certainly something has to give here! Look for Atlanta to be the team to get back on track as they take advantage of home field and they catch Tampa Bay sluggish coming out of the bye week. Sometimes teams need a bye but when you get blasted like the Buccaneers did two weeks ago (48-10) at Chicago, it is actually better to have a chance to play the next week and get back on track. Instead TB is left wondering why they can't stop anybody as they've allowed an average of 358 passing yards per game this season! That creates a complete mismatch here with the Falcons having Matt Ryan at QB and able to take advantage of this glaring Bucs weakness. Atlanta has won each of the last 3 meetings between these teams and the average margin has been 10.7 points per game. Tampa Bay is 2-6 SU and ATS in their last 8 games played in domes. While the Falcons defense has struggled too, the Bucs defense has been even worse and the TB offense is starting to come back down to earth after a surprisingly successful start to this season. As for the Falcons offense, it remains a consistent threat week in and week out and that will prove to be the difference here as well. 8* ATLANTA

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #253 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers @ 1 ET - Don't be fooled by the Browns low point total last week. Cleveland gained over 400 yards in the 12-9 win and also allowed over 400 yards. The fact the game landed on just 21 points is helping to lead to line value in their match-up with the Chargers this week. The Browns have averaged 451.5 yards per game the past 2 weeks and had scored 42 points at Oakland before last week's "fluke" result on the scoreboard. Both of these teams have had issues with pass defense this season and Cleveland has allowed an average of 360 passing yards per game the past two weeks plus allowed over 300 yards through the air against the Steelers in Week 1. Los Angeles is allowing an average of 270 passing yards per game on the season. The Chargers offensive production is the key to their success. LA is averaging 27.4 points per game this season as the passing game is averaging nearly 300 yards per game through the air! The Browns are 6-2 to the over in games where their line ranges from +3 to -3. The Chargers are 4-1 to the over this season and with mild weather expected for this one a shootout can be expected. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #103 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ New York Giants @ 8:20 ET - The Eagles have won 3 straight SU in this series. With this number dropping back down to a -2.5 on Philly, there is great value with the small road favorite in this one. Philadelphia has lost back to back games SU and has failed to 4 straight games but that has led to line value in this spot. Home field has not meant a lot in this series and, that said, laying less than Field Goal with the super bowl champs is excellent line value. Yes the Eagles are banged up at RB but they still have plenty of talent at the skill positions plus a powerful offensive line and one of the better defensive lines in the league. The Giants are just 1-4 SU this season and off a disheartening late loss at Carolina after rallying back for a shot at the victory. That is a tough loss to bounce back from and this is particularly true on a short week. Look for Eagles QB Carson Wentz to deliver a huge game here and look for Philly to dominate in the trenches as Philadelphia improves to 5-2 ATS the last 7 times they've entered a game off 2 or more consecutive SU losses. The Eagles are 3-0 SU and ATS their last 3 Thursday games. The Giants are 0-2 SU and ATS their last 2 Thursday games. 10* PHILADELPHIA 

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NFL Game #478 Monday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints (-) vs Washington Redskins @ 8:15 ET - The Redskins are coming off of their bye week but are just 2-8 ATS their last 10 after a bye. The Saints have a bye week on deck and are 7-3 ATS when playing the week before a bye. We also have good value here in that Washington has overachieved early this season while the Saints have underachieved early this season. Yes New Orleans is 3-1 on the season but everyone remembers their opening game loss at home versus Tampa Bay and then how the Saints barely beat the Browns in Week 2. This is why New Orleans is less than a TD favorite hosting the Redskins here while last season they were favored by nearly double digits when they hosted Washington! Certainly one could argue that the Redskins have the better defense in this match-up but the Saints are the better team on offense and I expect Washington will not be able to keep up here. Keep in mind, this is just the 2nd time this season that the Redskins are on the road. Their first road game was against an Arizona team that is 1-4 on the year and playing at New Orleans is certainly a much tougher draw than facing the Cardinals at Arizona! The Saints are also 7-0 ATS in their last 8 October games while Washington is 0-4 ATS their last 4 games on Monday night football. That is an 11-0 / 100% perfect situation favoring the home team in this one! 10* NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #476 Sunday 8* Houston Texans (-) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - After an 0-3 start the Texans got a key win on a last second field goal last week at Indianapolis. That is the type of victory that can really get a team going with momentum. If you haven't lived in Texas in recent years you wouldn't understand how important this match-up is to the Texans. They truly feel like they always play 'second fiddle" to the Cowboys fans in the state of Texas. After the Oilers left Houston and went to Tennessee to become the Titans even more and more fans in Texas pledged their allegiance to the Cowboys. Sure the Texans have a huge following in the Houston area but they really do get tired of being the "ugly step-sibling" to the Cowboys. That is why a non-conference match-up like this is actually a huge game for Houston especially with it being in primetime under the Sunday night lights! The Texans are averaging 336 passing yards per game the past 3 weeks. The Cowboys have averaged just 137.5 passing yards per game on the road this season. Dallas is an ugly 1-3 ATS this season. The Texans are on a 6-3 ATS run in October games. 8* HOUSTON

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #474 Sunday 8* Seattle Seahawks (+) vs Los Angeles Rams @ 4:25 ET - The Rams are undefeated on the season and I am not saying they necessarily lose outright here but I do feel strongly that this is going to be a very tough game for them. Of course the Seahawks are truly a shell of the team they once were but the Rams crushed the Hawks at Seattle last year 42-7. That was the worst defeat in 8 years with Carroll at head coach for the Seahawks and it came on their home field too! You know Seattle is going to be rocking for this game and motivation, emotion, home field edge are all things that can go a long way in a game like this. Seattle would love nothing more than to avenge that embarrassing loss and put the first loss into the ledger of a division rival. As strong as the Rams offense has been, they did allow nearly 400 passing yards to the Vikings last week! The week before that LA allowed 141 rushing yards. The point is that this Rams defense has certainly shown a few holes in recent games and Russell Wilson and company will be looking to take advantage. At the same time, the Seahawks defense will bring their A game. Yes they are not what they once were but the entire team will be up for this one especially after the ugly incident with safety Earl Thomas last week. Teams really "come together" after incidents like that and this team is going to rally this week. The Seahawks have won 13 of the last 18 home meetings with the Rams SU and here they're getting 7 plus the hook which is good value as Los Angeles is a great team but is a little too over-valued by the markets right now. 8* SEATTLE 

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #469 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Francisco 49'ers vs Arizona Cardinals @ 4:25 ET - The Cardinals are the only NFL team that has yet to have a game result in an over. Of course odds are that this can't continue for too long into the season! This looks like the perfect spot for their first one! San Francisco actually got a solid effort from Beathard (replacement for the injured Garappolo) last week other than the turnovers. He threw for nearly 300 yards. The Cardinals defense is allowing 23.5 points per game this season. The 49ers defense has allowed at least 24 points in all four of their games this season. San Francisco has allowed 33.5 points per game the past two week. The Niners didn't use the ground game as much last week but it has been solid this season and the Cardinals run defense is not good. The SF pass defense has been their weak link this season and Josh Rosen is getting more comfortable with each game under center for Arizona. Keep in mind Larry Fitzgerald and JJ Nelson each dropped TD passes from Rosen last week. This Cardinals team has been on the cusp of more points and they'll get them today against a suspect Niners pass defense. The Cards defense won't be able to stop a Niners offense that has scored at least 27 points each of the last 3 weeks. Take advantage of the low total here. The over is 7-2 in San Francisco's games in weeks 5 through 9 of a season. The over is 11-5 in Arizona's road games. The over is 3-0 in the 49ers last 3 games overall. 10* OVER the total in San Francisco

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #453 Sunday 10* Top Play Jacksonville Jaguars (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 1 ET - The Chiefs are undefeated on the season but coming off of a short week and a last minute win at division rival Denver on Monday night. Kansas City also has a big game on deck with the Patriots! KC has won each of the last 3 meetings with Jaguars so this is a triple revenge spot for Jacksonville. Keep in mind, none of the 4 teams that KC has beaten currently have a wining record. As for the Jags, they've beaten the Patriots (3-2 and arguably better than that record indicates of course) and they lost to a Titans team that is now 3-1 on the season. The Jaguars were one of the top teams in the AFC last season and they are well aware of the undefeated record of the Chiefs here. Public bettors will be enamored with backing a home team laying just a field goal considering they haven't lost a game yet this season. The fact is that the road dog is the way to go here as Jacksonville it highly motivated and the Chiefs are truly in a tough scheduling spot. Also, as good as Patrick Mahomes and the KC offense has been, the Kansas City defense is one of the worst in the league right now while the Jaguars are one of the best teams in the league on defense. 10* JACKSONVILLE

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #301 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New England Patriots @ 8:20 ET - First off let me state that I am well aware that there are some injury concerns relating to the Colts TY Hilton and the Patriots Rob Gronkowski. However, did you see the yardage totals and pass catch totals that the Colts put up against the Texans last week that were unrelated to Hilton? The fact is that this Indianapolis team still have plenty of weapons even if Hilton doesn't play and I love the situation here. The Patriots needed a win badly last week and they got it as they dominated the over-rated Dolphins on both sides of the ball. However, now there will be the proverbial "let up" in defensive intensity after the Pats D "saved face" last week. The fact is that New England had allowed an average of 447.5 yards per game in their two prior games and the Patriots had allowed an average of 25.7 points per game in their first three games this season. The Colts threw for over 400 yards in last week's loss versus the Texans and though there may be some scattered showers in Foxboro Thursday evening, the winds are expected to be light with mild temperatures. In other words, both offenses will be fully functional. The Patriots are a long-term 28-15 to the over in games versus AFC South opponents. Also, in home games with a posted total of 49.5 points or more, the Pats are on an 18-9 run to the over. As a road dog of 7.5 to 10 points, the Colts are on a 19-7 run to the over. In October games, Indianapolis is on an 8-2 run to the over the past two seasons. Take advantage of the drop on this total (has fallen from its opener). 10* OVER the total in New England

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #277 Monday 8* Kansas City Chiefs (-) @ Denver Broncos @ 8:15 ET - The Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Broncos. Adding even more value to this spot though is that Denver has gone from Super Bowl champs to 9 wins to 5 wins the last 3 seasons! While the Broncos are clearly on the way down, the Chiefs have been on an upward trajectory with double digit wins totals in each of the last 3 seasons! Kansas City could be ascending even higher this season thanks to the play of Patrick Mahomes. He currently ranks as the #1 QB in the NFL based on passer rating and Mahomes has thrown for 13 TDs without a pick on the season. As for the Broncos Case Keenum, he ranks among the league worst in QB's so far this season and he has thrown for just 3 TDs while also throwing 5 INTs. Though the Chiefs defense has struggled this season their offense has absolutely been a machine moving up and down the field. Also, Kansas City's biggest weakness (defense) is unlikely to be exposed by a Broncos offense that has had issues with drives stalling out due to turnovers and simply being inept at crucial times. That is why Denver's yardage stats look quite good on offense but they are averaging only 20 points per game. The Chiefs are nearly double that as they are averaging 39 points per game. Simply put, the Broncos just won't be able to keep up here. KC is 12-6 SU and ATS in road games and, in addition to covering 5 in a row against Denver, the Chiefs are on an overall 7-0 ATS run in regular season games. The Broncos are 0-6 ATS the last 6 times they've been an underdog of at least 3 points. That means this is a triple perfect play with angles combining for 18-0 / 100% PERFECT ATS. Monday 8* KANSAS CITY

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #276 Sunday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (-) vs Baltimore Ravens @ 8:20 ET - The Steelers have defeated the Ravens three straight times. Pittsburgh lost their only home game this season so you know they're going to be ready to go here and make up for the defeat versus Kansas City two weeks ago. As for their other two games, the Steelers did have to settle for a tie versus Cleveland but that was truly a crazy finish after Pittsburgh did lead 21-7 in the 4th quarter. As for their other game (a win last week versus the Bucs), the final score was tight but the Steelers were up huge in that game. You can bet that after these disappointing finishes (blown big leads) and having lost their only game at Heinz Field so far this season, Pittsburgh is going to go a full 60 versus their hated rival, the Ravens, in this one. Of course the betting markets focus on Baltimore's big win last week and the fact that the Steelers let some leads slip away and so now the market has made the move toward Baltimore here. More often than not I like to fade the popular choice and the Ravens are attracting the money in this one. Again, Steelers will not let up against Baltimore like they did against the Browns and Lions. Also, I prefer having Ben Roethlisberger as my QB here rather than Joe Flacco as the latter tends to be turnover prone in the biggest of situations. Note also that, per the injury reports, the Ravens are the more banged up team. Baltimore is only 3-10 SU and 5-7-1 ATS the last 13 times they've been an underdog. The Steelers are 10-3 SU (9-4 ATS) the last 13 times in games their line ranges from +3 to -3. Pittsburgh is 10-2 ATS when they are off of a non-divisional games and facing a divisional foe that has double revenge against them. Steelers haven't lost B2B home games since early in the 2016 season and I don't expect them to drop to 0-2 at home on the season. 10* PITTSBURGH

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #273 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Giants vs New Orleans Saints @ 4:25 ET - Giants gave up 368 yards through the air last week. Of course the New York offense is not considered their strength but they have been consistent through the air and have thrown for at least 210 yards every week. The Giants aerial attack should have no problem with the Saints defense this week. New Orleans is allowing an average of 337 passing yards per game. On the flip side, it is unlikely the Giants are going to be able to slow down the Saints offense. They are averaging 345 passing yards per game and 35 points per game. The over went 8-3 the past two seasons when New Orleans faced teams with a losing record and I look for them to take advantage of a Giants defense that is not as strong as it has been in the past. Dating back to the regular season and including their post-season games, the Saints are now on a 5-1 run to the over after last week's high-scoring OT win at Atlanta. 62% of the Giants plays this season have been passing plays. 67% of the Saints plays this season have been passing plays. With both teams defenses susceptible to the pass that will be the emphasis of each offense here and, of course, an emphasis on the pass means even more plays and less running clock. Don't let the big number fool you here. With the weather also expected to be ideal for this game, there will be no limitations on either offense here. 10* OVER the total in the New York Giants game

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #253 Sunday 8* Houston Texans (+) @ Indianapolis Colts @ 1 ET - The Texans are still searching for that elusive first win so definitely extra hunger here for the road team. Though Houston suffered a home loss last week versus the Giants they did outgain New York and that was also the case in the Texans prior game. Houston outgained Tennessee the prior week by over 150 yards but lost. The Texans season opening loss was at New England. The point is that based on schedule (trip to Foxboro) and a few bad bounces (past two weeks) Houston is 0-3 despite playing better than their record shows. As a result, we have great value here in going against a Colts team that was very fortunate to get a cover last week at Philadelphia. The Eagles actually outgained Indianapolis 170 yards but you wouldn't know it by looking at the final score. Again, this is leading to more value here in terms of going against the Colts with the hungry Texans. In terms of technical value, the Colts are just 1-5 SU and ATS as a home dog of 3 points or less. The Texans are 11-2 ATS in divisional action when they enter a game with a losing record, off of a loss, and they're facing a team with a losing record. Indianapolis is 1-10 ATS when they are facing a team with a sub-.400 record that is also off of a SU and ATS loss in their prior game. Combined edges here of 26-4 (87%) ATS in favor of the small road dog. 8* HOUSTON

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Game #265 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Tennessee Titans @ 1 ET - The Eagles got the SU win versus the Colts last week but certainly should have had the ATS win as well. Philadelphia outgained Indianapolis by 170 yards but QB Carson Wentz was a little rusty and the Eagles won the game by only 4 despite the yardage domination. This week look for Wentz to be much more sharp and the set-up is perfect here for Philly as they catch Tennessee off of a big upset win at Jacksonville. The Titans are just 1-7 ATS when they enter a game off 2 or more consecutive wins. The Eagles are on a 21-9 ATS run in games played on grass. Off back to back divisional wins, Tennessee certainly could be "out of gas" for this one especially after the big upset win as a double digit dog at Jacksonville. The Titans offense struggles with the pass and relies on the run and that plays right into the hands of the Eagles who currently rank #1 in the league against the run. The Philly defense also is ready to make up for the poor effort they gave in their first road game at Tampa Bay. That loss and poor effort on the defensive end in that game plus with Wentz now back for this road game and having a game under his belt, this is the ideal spot for a huge effort from the Eagles. Considering those factors as well as the small line, look for a road rout in this one. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #101 Thursday 10* Top Play Minnesota Vikings (+) @ Los Angeles Rams @ 8:20 ET - The betting markets often operate on a short-term memory and, as a result, there can be excellent line value in situations like this. As of early game day morning, the line on this game has been driven up to as high as a 7.5 as many just can't stop thinking about that embarrassing home loss the Vikings just had against the Bills on Sunday. The keys to the value here are that, prior to that game, Minnesota had a tough early season schedule as the Niners (with Garappolo at QB) were certainly a formidable match-up and then the Vikings went to Lambeau Field. After having to settle for a tie at division rival Green Bay and then knowing that this big match-up with the Rams was on deck, it is not a huge surprise that he Vikes were flat against Buffalo. Of course an outright loss was not expected but some struggles were expected. The fact that Minnesota did lose outright (and bad) actually only strengthens the power of this situation here. The Vikings will be ready to go and they're taking on a Rams team that has beaten the Raiders, Cardinals, and Chargers. Those 3 teams have a combined record of 1-8 this season! I do respect the Rams but they are truly getting too much respect from the betting markets here and the fact that we can now get 7 plus the hook in this one has me raising it to a top play. In terms of long-term technical data, the Vikings are 8-4 ATS their last 12 games against the Rams and Los Angeles is on a 2-8 ATS run in Thursday games. The Vikes should improve to 4-0 ATS their last 4 games versus NFC West opponents. 10* MINNESOTA

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #489 Monday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (+) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:15 ET - The winless Steelers are at the 2-0 Buccaneers and the earliers lines on this game had Pittsburgh as nearly a field goal favorite. Now the Steelers are the underdog in this match-up as of early Monday morning and I love the value we're getting here with the road team. While it is true that Tampa Bay is 2-0 this season, it is also true that the Bucs have allowed an average of 376.5 passing yards per game. That porous pass defense will be trying to stop Big Ben and Company and note that the Steelers passing attack is averaging 377.5 passing yards per game thus far. Look for that match-up to be the key to this game. Yes I know that the Pittsburgh run defense has not been good so far this season but they'll be fired up in the trenches and ready to go here as a winless team on the road under the Monday Night lights. Big opportunity for the Steelers here and note that Tampa Bay managed less than 2 yards per carry in their win last week. In games with a line between +3 and -3, the Steelers are on a 9-3 SU run. Pittsburgh also is a long-term 31-10 SU in Monday night games! In games with a total of 49.5 points or more, Tampa Bay is a long-term 4-12 SU! You can see that a lot of points are expected here and I don't expect the Buccaneers to be able to keep up. Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are 11-2 ATS when they are a road dog and facing an opponent that is off of back to back straight up wins. Of course that system is in effect here and I am grabbing the very hungry road dog in this one. 10* PITTSBURGH

Total of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #488 Sunday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Detroit Lions @ 8:20 ET - This total opened up in the mid-40s (very early line but this still tells you something) and got steamed up all the way up into the mid-50s. I feel we are getting excellent line value here because this game is going to be much of a chess match than many people realize. Now I know when you look at the Lions and all the points that have been scored against them you would find this hard to believe. However, the fact is that Detroit has allowed an average of only 347.5 yards per game so far this season. Their head coach, Matt Patricia, was the defensive coordinator at New England from 2012 to 2017. You know that Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is going to want to prove here whom really is the mastermind behind making proper defensive adjustments. This is why I mentioned "chess match" previously because I really believe we are going to see this game be much more about defense than many are expecting. With the Pats off of a bad game defensively against a highly motivated Jaguars team, I expect Belichick's group to be ready to return to the form that led to just 325 yards being allowed versus the Texans in Week 1. New England, prior to last week's dismal effort, had allowed 20 points or less in 13 of their last 16 games (regular season and playoffs included). In true road games (not including neutral site games), the Patriots offense has been held to 27 points or less in 6 of their last 7 games. Now you see why the odds makers had this total in the mid-40s to start with! Indeed, look for it to finish in the 40s as both coaches look to one up the other with quite the effort in terms of play-calling on the defensive side of the ball in this one. In road games with a posted total of 49.5 points or more, New England has stayed under in 5 of 6 (83%). In home games with a posted total of 49.5 points or more, the Lions have stayed under in 11 of 17 (65%). Look for another one here. 10* UNDER the total in Detroit

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #486 Sunday 10* Top Play Seattle Seahawks Money Line (-) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - This line has dropped so low on the home favorite Seattle that the Seahawks money line (as of Saturday evening) is now available for as low as a -120 price. I'll take it! While Dallas is off of their first home game of the season (and a win), it is Seattle that is now playing their home opener and that is still seeking their first win of the season. Yes the Cowboys have revenge from the home loss to the Seahawks late last season that basically ruined Christmas for Dallas but the fact is that the value is with Seattle in this match-up. Yes, I am well aware of the fact that this Seahawks team is not the same team it has been in recent seasons but that is also why we're getting phenomenal line value here. That is factored into this line and Seattle is a different "animal" when they play at home too! In a home game with a posted total between 38.5 and 42 points the Seahawks are 4-0 SU their last 4. Seattle is also 4-1 (SU and ATS) their last 5 vs NFC East opponents. When installed as a home favorite of 3 points or less, the Seahawks are a long-term 26-10 ATS. Note also that Seattle is on an 8-0 / 100% PERFECT ATS run when they are a home favorite and they are entering the game off of back to back SU losses. That system fits here and the Cowboys offensive line is a shell of its former self and I expect the Seahawks defense to take advantage! 10* SEATTLE

PA Insider - Rickenbach NFL Game #462 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Indianapolis Colts @ 1 ET - The Eagles should dominate this game. Yes they have some injury issues at running back but they're getting some healthy bodies back at WR and, most importantly in terms of injuries, QB Carson Wentz is back this week. However, he is actually not even the biggest key to this play. The most significant edge the Eagles have is in the trenches because they are so strong on both the offensive line and defensive line. With the Colts having a glaring weakness in terms of their offensive line, the Eagles D can exploit this and I expect this to be a huge mismatch all game long. In truth it won't even be fair to compare Indy QB Andrew Luck to Wentz in this game because I expect the latter to have a huge edge in terms of time in the pocket and the ability to make throws after plays develop. As for Luck, he is going to need some "luck" just to evade the Eagles aggressive pass rush. Philly is at home and off of a loss and they are fired up. The fact this line is currently available at 6.5 (in a number of shops) as of Saturday afternoon is an added edge. Lay the points with the Eagles and look for a blowout as the set-up is perfect with Indianapolis off of a big road win where they are actually outgained and the Eagles off of a road loss and returning home where they have been so tough under coach Doug Pederson. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NFL Game #473 Sunday 8* Oakland Raiders (+) @ Miami Dolphins @ 1 ET - This is the ultimate in "line metrics" that fools the betting markets but that should take care of us very nicely. The fact is that many are looking at this match-up wondering how the 2-0 Dolphins at home are laying only 3 (or 3.5 in some spots) against an 0-2 Raiders team. Of course the reason is because the odds makers know exactly what they're doing here and I firmly believe that this will be Oakland's first SU win this season but certainly am glad to grab the extra value of at least a field goal in this match-up. The Dolphins beat the Jets at New York last week but they were outgained significantly in that contest. Keep in mind that Miami's season-opening win came at home against Tennessee and the Titans yardage was roughly equal with the Dolphins in that game and plus the Titans are certainly no powerhouse. I like the fact that the Raiders have had to play the Rams and also visit Denver to open the season (and covered and should have won outright over the Broncos) while the Dolphins have played two teams that many consider to be two of the weaker teams in the NFL. We're getting a lot of line value here as a result and Oakland, statistically has been stronger than Miami so far this season but that just hasn't translated to SU wins and losses yet. Look for that to change this week! The last 18 times that the Raiders have had a line between +3 and -3, they've only failed to cover 5 times! The Dolphins have covered just 3 times in their last 11 games when off of a divisional game. Not only are they off of one, Miami has one on deck too - at New England! Perfect set up here for the road dog. 8* OAKLAND

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Game #301 Thursday 10* Top Play New York Jets (+)  Cleveland Browns @ 8:20 ET - I understand the line completely as many experts feel the Jets and Browns are equal teams and therefore Cleveland is merely favored for home field edge here. However, the fact that we can get +3 or even +3.5 with New York in some shops as of Tuesday night is a big value in this one when you consider that Browns have not won a single game since Week 16 of the 2016 season! I really like the fact that the Jets outgained the Dolphins by over 100 yards last week but yet came up on the wrong end of the scoreboard. This also helped add line value this week because, keep in mind, the Jets blasted the Lions in Week 1. As for Cleveland in Week 1, yes they did tie Pittsburgh but the Steelers gave that game away late as they blew a 21-7 lead. Pittsburgh actually outgained the Browns by 145 yards in Week 1. The Browns tie with the Steelers and their close battle with the Saints last week become less impressive when you consider both of those teams have plenty of issues as they each are still seeking their first win of the season. That said, I am certainly not saying that the Jets are not without some issues too but you can absolutely see why, per all of the above as well as New York's stat edges early this season, I am happy to back the road dog here and fade a team that hasn't even won a game since 2016. The Jets have failed to cover just once in their last five versus AFC North opponents. Cleveland was 7-4 SU through game 11 in the 2014 season. Since then the Browns are 4-49 SU! Will I fade a team that is laying 3 plus the hook in some spots and has won just 4 of its last 53 games? Yes indeed and I will elevate this to a Top Play too. 10* NEW YORK JETS

MNF Annihilation - Rickenbach NFL Game #289 Monday 8* Seattle Seahawks (+) @ Chicago Bears @ 8:15 ET - Yes the Seahawks have a few injuries but that is factored into this line. We're getting great value with road dog Seattle as we go against a Chicago team that is just 1-6 ATS the last 7 times they've been a home favorite. Also, the Bears QB is Mitch Trubisky while the Seahawks QB is Russell Wilson. You can't base a play on one position but, one thing is for certain, the QB position is an extremely critical one and Seattle has a huge edge there in this match-up. Also, while Seattle's D did struggle at Denver last week they did garner 3 interceptions in that game and hung tough in a 3-point loss. As for the Bears, it is tough to come back after an extremely deflating defeat to the division rival Packers. Chicago blew a huge lead at Lambeau Field last Sunday night and now feels the pressure of another primetime game on Monday night. While Bears head coach Matt Nagy is in his first year with Chicago, Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll is a long-time veteran. When Seattle is on the road against an NFC foe following a game against an AFC foe in the prior week, they are on an 8-1 ATS run. I also like backing the Seahawks off of a loss. Seattle is 11-2 ATS when they are off of a SU loss outside of their division and are facing a team that has a losing record. The Bears are 0-16 ATS when they are a home favorite against an NFC foe that is off of a SU loss. The Seahawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 5 road games (one push) against NFC opponents. That means this play is supported, in addition to a number of solid angles, by a pair of angles that are a combined 20-0 / 100% perfect. 8* SEATTLE

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #287 Sunday NFL 10* Top Play OVER the total in Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants @ 8:20 ET - The total has trended under in recent meetings between these teams. Also, each of their games in Week 1 of this season went under the total. You know what that means for me on Sunday night don't you? OVER! The fact is that the Dallas offense is going to come out like they have a fire lit under them after that dismal effort at Carolina in Week 1. Of course the Giants are going to blitz and try to pressure Prescott but the Cowboys will be ready and the running of Elliott as well as Prescott having some quick throws to beat the blitz is likely to lead to some big plays for this Dallas offense. Keep in mind the Cowboys put up an average of 423 yards per game on the Giants in last year's meetings. New York's offense struggled against Dallas last season but with Beckham back at wide receiver and the explosive Barkley (out of Penn State) in the backfield, the Giants offense is going to really pressure the 'Boys defense in this one! The last 4 times that Dallas has been held to 8 points or less in a game their next game has averaged a total of 50 points and all 4 games totaled at least 46 points! Look for the Cowboys offense to bounce back here but they're going to struggle to stop the Giants here (hungry after scoring just 15 points last week) and that helps to send this one flying over the total. 10* OVER the total in Dallas

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NFL Game #285 Sunday 8* Oakland Raiders (+) @ Denver Broncos @ 4:25 ET - The Broncos hung on to beat the Seahawks by 3 points last week despite 3 interceptions thrown by Case Keenum. This created a perfect set up this week because there is a false confidence in the Broncos because of the win and some impressive yardage totals for Denver last week. So most of the marketplace is pro-Denver right now and anti-Oakland because, of course, everyone saw the Raiders collapse against the Rams in the 2nd half of that game. However, note that the yardage in that game was roughly equal and note that Derek Carr threw 3 interceptions. However, I still would pick Carr over Keenum to quarterback my team any day of the week. I also prefer a veteran coach like the Raiders Jon Gruden over the Broncos Vance Joseph. So, in this match-up, I have the better QB and the more experienced coach and I am getting nearly a full touchdown even though my team is undoubtedly the hungrier team. I'll take it! The Raiders are ticked off after what happened on Monday night while Denver is feeling a little too good about themselves after beating Seattle in week one. The Broncos are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 divisional games. Also, Denver is a long-term 2-10 ATS when they are at home in a divisional game and favored by less than 17 points and their opponent is off a SU loss. Again, hunger and motivation so important and I expect a lot of fight from the Raiders after what happened Monday and they should be in this one all the way and have a great shot at the upset. 8* OAKLAND

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #283 Sunday 10* Top Play Jacksonville Jaguars (+) vs New England Patriots @ 4:25 ET - Don't underestimate that Jags win over the Giants last week in New York. The Giants have some solid talent at the skill positions with Odell Beckham, Jr back in the mix and now Saquan Barkley running very well already in his rookie campaign for New York. That said, the Patriots were somewhat fortunate to sneak past the Texans last week and that was at home. Now they play in very high heat and high humidity in Jacksonville Sunday and they face a team that should have beat them in the AFC Conference Championship Game last year and that one was in Foxboro! In other words, I like my chances with the Jaguars as they won't blow a big lead against the Pats in Jacksonville in September like they did in New England in January. The Jags outgained the Patriots in that big playoff game and also dominated time of possession but they were done in by penalties. They are going to make the most of this opportunity for revenge. Of course the Patriots have been a covering machine in recent years and that is priced into this line. In other words, the wrong team is favored here but that is to satisfy the masses and, as long-time followers of my program know, I like to fade the masses. Keep in mind, since this line has Jax as a dog we can talk about their SU streaks as they do apply here and Jacksonville has won 6 in a row SU at home. As strong as the Pats have been overall ATS they have covered just 2 of their last 5 away from home and I like the Jags in the stifling oppressive heat of Florida in this one. 10* JACKSONVILLE

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #263 Sunday 8* Carolina Panthers (+) @ Atlanta Falcons @ 1 ET - First off let me start by saying that I am well aware that Carolina has some injury issues head into this game. However, the key factor is the Panthers have some solid depth at those positions (in particular, the offensive line) and I really like the big dog value being offered here. That was not a bad Cowboys that the Panthers thoroughly dominated in Week 1. At the same time the Falcons faced an Eagles team whose offense was totally out of rhythm and had questionable play-calling and never really could get in sync and yet Atlanta still lost. This is why I am going contrarian this week because most are expecting the Panthers to fall short after a big win over Dallas while the Falcons bounce back after a tough loss to the Eagles. It is the old "zig zag" theory. This is helping to give us a lot of line value here because Carolina's defense looked great last week while the Falcons traditional red zone struggles on offense continued. As a result, getting close to a TD here is a big value because there is no way the Panthers will be flat here. They are up for this game as they've had a history of struggles against Atlanta in recent meetings and it is payback time. The Panthers are a very cohesive group right now where everybody is pulling even closer together because of some of the injuries they've had. I really like what I am reading out of Carolina and, in terms of technical edges, the Panthers are a long-term 24-12 ATS in road games with a posted total between 42.5 and 45 points while also having gone 9-4 ATS as an underdog the past two seasons combined. 8* CAROLINA

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #101 Thursday 8* Baltimore Ravens (+) @ Cincinnati Bengals @ 8:20 ET - The very first number that popped on this one was the Ravens -3 and now Baltimore is in a pick'em range and even a small dog in some books as of Wednesday evening. This is offering great line value to the revenge-minded Ravens. Baltimore, as many may recall, missed out on the post-season last year because of an unbelievable late-game loss to the Bengals in the final week of the regular season last year. Of course revenge tends to be over-played so I am always careful when getting involved in situations with avenging teams. In this case it absolutely looks like the right play. The Ravens have seemed like a team on a mission ever since pre-season kicked off. They went 5-0 in the preseason and then began the regular season with a thumping of Buffalo. Certainly the Bills are expected to be a bad team this season but that games wasn't even close and Baltimore was dominant on both sides of the ball. On the other side of the equation, the Bengals faced a Colts team with a suspect offensive line and a rusty Andrew Luck under center and yet still needed a late rally for the win. Don't be impressed by the final score as Cincinnati scored the final 17 points and the fact is the yardage was roughly equal in that game. Look for the Ravens to improve on a 7-3 ATS run in road openers. The Bengals, in divisional games, are 0-7 ATS if they are facing an opponent whom is playing with revenge and whom scored more than 35 points in their prior game. This perfect system fits perfectly here and Baltimore is ready to roll! The road team was the SU and ATS winner in both match-ups last season and that trend continues here. 8* BALTIMORE

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #479 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Lions vs New York Jets @ 7:10 ET - The Lions averaged 25.6 points per game last season and will continue to be one of the better producing offenses in the league with Matt Stafford at the controls. Of course the big story in Detroit is new head coach Patricia. He was the defensive coordinator at New England of course but, as impressive as being with the Patriots sounds, the fact is the Pats defense ranked as one of the worst in the NFL last season in terms of yardage. They were a bit of a bend but don't break unit as they did better in terms of points allowed but, the point is, Patricia doesn't have the same group to work with in Detroit that he had in New England. The Lions were one of the worst units defensively in the league last year in terms of yardage allowed and weren't much better in terms of points per game. The point is I like the Lions offense to stay strong early this season but the defense will be going through a lot of adjusting early and the Jets, even with a rookie QB in Sam Darnold, have the firepower to take advantage. New York has a lot of talent at the skill positions and they will do some damage against a "questionable" Lions defense. However, it is the Jets defense that will also prove to be their downfall especially early this season. They struggled last season and this is one of the more inexperienced defenses in the league and a veteran QB like Stafford will take advantage. There is simply not a lot of veteran leadership on this Jets D. New York went over in 3 of 4 games against the NFC last season. The Lions are on a 7-2 run to the over in home games and I look for another one here. 10* OVER the total in Detroit

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #478 Sunday 8* Green Bay Packers (-) vs Chicago Bears @ 8:20 ET - The Bears have a new head coach in Matt Nagy while the Packers Mike McCarthy is in his 13th year with the Packers. Chicago is still resting their hopes on a QB by the name of Mitch Trubisky while Green Bay has a healthy Aaron Rodgers returning as the signal-caller for The Pack in this one. So far I have listed for you a coaching edge and a huge edge at arguably the most important position. Now add in the fact that the Packers have one of the biggest home field edges in the NFL and the fact that this line is down to a 7 and you can see why I am happy to back Green Bay in this one. Keep in mind Chicago has a combined record of 8-24 the past two seasons. In terms of ATS stats the Bears have gotten the cash just twice in their last nine games. Also, for those of you whom like technical trends: Chicago is 0-5 ATS when they have a Monday night game on deck. Last year the Packers season was impacted greatly by injury but do not forget that this team, including playoffs, averaged 12 wins per game the 3 prior seasons. Green Bay knows how to win and with Rodgers back under center this game is a complete mismatch and with the line at -7 it is "go time" for this one. The Packers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games against the Bears! As a home favorite in a range of 3.5 to 7 points, GB is on a 7-2 ATS run. The Bears are on a 4-12 ATS run in road games the past two seasons and I am happy to take advantage of the downward line move here. 8* GREEN BAY PACKERS

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #471 Sunday 10* Top Play Seattle Seahawks (+) @ Denver Broncos @ 4:25 ET - The Broncos, based on the markets, appear to be a popular choice this week. This is understandable from the anti-Seahawks sentiment as certainly Seattle has lost some key components from the team that took the field last season. However, I have to wonder if people heavily betting Denver stop and think about this interesting factoid: the Broncos win totals keep decreasing! They won 12 games 3 years ago, 9 games two years ago, and only were victories 5 times in 16 games last season! Is this a team you want to lay points with against a Seahawks team that still has plenty of professional pride and has been a top team for many years now. Also, do you want Case Keenum at QB or Russell Wilson? Of course most everyone would take the Hawks signal-caller give the choice! The point is just the simple fact that a little too much respect has gone the way of the Broncos in my strong opinion. We can now get a full field goal with the team, that in my opinion, is still the better team. Sure there is the important factor of home field but the Broncos have covered just once the last five times they've been a home favorite of 3 points or less. Overall, Denver's home field has been nothing special the last two seasons as they've barely played above .500 in the Mile High City. The Seahawks are 6-2 SU against AFC teams the past two seasons. The Broncos are on an overall 2-10 ATS run. You still have to score points to win games and so, while I respect the Denver defense, I think their offense is still going to have growing pains with Keenum at the helm. Seattle averaged scoring 5 points per game more than the Broncos last season plus the Seahawks D - even after personnel changes - is still a solid unit. The Hawks are also on a 4-0 ATS run when playing the first of back to back road games. Also, head coach Pete Carroll is in his 9th year with the Seahawks while Vance Joseph is in his just his 2nd with the Broncos. That difference in experience is worth something too. 10* SEATTLE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #455 Sunday 8* San Francisco 49ers (+) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET - The 49ers were a different team late last season with Garoppolo under center and I expect the San Francisco QB to stay hot early this season. Keep in mind, the Viking are going through a lot of transition on offense in terms of the QB position as well as their offensive cooridinator. That said, the upstart Niners could surprise the Vikes here. Sure, Minnesota has been excited too re-take the field after that embarrassing post-season loss to the Eagles. However, the 49ers have been just as eager to get back on the field after their strong start finish to last season. This San Francisco team is an up and coming unit with a great mixture of talent and experience on both sides of the ball. With this line climbing up to as high as a +7 as of Saturday evening it is go time with this dangerous underdog. Both these teams have been covering machines of late as the Niners covered 5 straight to end last season while the Vikings finished up the regular season covering 10 of their last 11. However, the key to the value here is the transition taking place with the Minny offense as well as the fact that they are the public team so that is why the money flow has gone their way and the line has moved accordingly. I am grabbing the value on the underdog side with this one and look for the 49ers to improve to 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road openers. 8* SAN FRANCISCO

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Game #452 Thursday 7* Philadelphia Eagles Money Line (-) vs Atlanta Falcons @ 8:20 ET - The Eagles may as well not even show up for this game. The betting markets are basically saying Philadelphia has no chance in this game. We're getting tremendous line value here because Nick Foles rather than Carson Wentz is starting at QB here. We're getting fantastic line value here because this is a revenge game for the Falcons and the Eagles looked so bad in the preseason. Do I have to remind everyone that the Cleveland Browns went 4-0 in preseason last year and then 0-16 in the regular season? Does everyone need reminded that Atlanta went 0-4 in preseason last year and then was playing in the playoffs in mid-January after a solid regular season. The point is that public sentiment is very anti-Eagles right now but it is not justified. Of course anything can happen in any game but one thing I know for sure is that the Eagles are not going to simply "lay down" on opening night on their home field in primetime action and allow the Falcons to run all over them. That said, there is tremendous line value here because the Eagles, as of Tuesday morning, are such a small favorite ATS that their money line (opened up at -200) is now as low as a -130 in some shops. That is the route I am going as I'll gladly take an Eagles team that has a very solid defense as well as an offense that is much better than what was displayed in preseason. Keep in mind, by taking the money line we just need the Eagles to win the game and they are 15-3 SU in home games under coach Doug Pederson. That includes 11-1 SU their last 12 and the only loss was the meaningless regular season home finale versus the Cowboys last year when the Eagles rested everybody. In other words, in the last 11 home games that actually had meaning for Philly, they are 11-0, 100% PERFECT. Now certainly this is a very good Falcons team and Atlanta deserves respect. However, the total dis-respect of the Super Bowl Champion Eagles has opened up a simply phenomenal situation to back the Eagles at a bargain price on the money line in a home game! Keep in mind the Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 visits to Philly. 7* PHILADELPHIA money line

The NFL Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Game #101 February 4th Sunday 10* Philadelphia Eagles (+) vs New England Patriots @ 6:30 ET @ U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, MN - Defense wins championships. The Patriots defense is ranked #29 in the NFL out of the 32 teams. New England is a sizable favorite here only because of their pedigree. The Pats will get plenty of attention from bettors because, let's face it, it is a "been there, done that" mentality when it comes to the Patriots. However, New England was very fortunate in last year's Super Bowl as anyone with a pulse surely remembers! I had Atlanta and the under in that game for the ultimate double whammy with the ridiculous finish to that game as the Falcons blew what looked like an insurmountable lead. Give credit to New England for that miracle comeback last season but at the same time, they're not going to be so fortunate this time around. The Eagles are the much better team defensively plus have a great ground game thanks to arguably having the best offensive lines and defensive lines in football. Anyone who has followed my analysis for all these years knows that I consider the battle in the trenches to be extremely important to the outcome of football games. In this case, the Eagles certainly hold the edge both when they have the ball and when they're on defense. Philly also has a great running back trio with Ajayi, Blount, and Clement. All 3 of those guys are capable of pounding away at a vulnerable Pats defense. With that said, the Eagles will use their ground game as well as a rejuvenated Nick Foles at QB to go only plenty of clock-eating drives that will help limit the number of possessions Tom Brady and Company get. While the Patriots certainly deserve all the respect in the world for their many years of success this is not their year. They are fortunate to be here as they barely got by Jacksonville and they got a fortunate draw by facing Tennessee in the prior round. The point is that the Pats avoided the Steelers and then, arguably, did have significant help in their comeback win over the Jags in the AFC Championship. That was in Foxboro and they won't be so fortunate here in Minnesota as the Eagles appear to be a team of destiny with all the right pieces in place. Make no mistake about it, the NFC was the tougher conference this season with teams like the Saints, Panthers, Falcons, Rams, and Vikings. In the AFC playoffs you had the Bills get in via a miracle, the Chiefs were on a huge second half fade and the Titans certainly were at nobody's top of the list in terms of powerhouse. The point is that the Patriots should have lost to the Jaguars team they faced and certainly would have been challenged by the Steelers had they faced them as Pittsburgh also should have won the regular season match-up with the Pats. New England's luck runs out here as the Eagles earned this spot out of a very tough NFC and they did it in impressive fashion with last week's manhandling of the Vikings. The Patriots certainly have the edge in Super Bowl experience but note that they are 5-4 in 9 appearances and 4 of the 5 wins have come by 4 points or less. The only one that didn't was last year's ridiculous 6-point win over the Falcons (in OT) and the point is that New England - in 9 super bowl appearances - has never blown anyone out. If they do somehow manage a win here I would expect it to be another tight victory for the Pats but the Eagles have a great shot at the upset and certainly are a value play with the generous points! 10* PHILADELPHIA

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Sunday Game #314 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) vs Minnesota Vikings @ 6:40 ET - Truth be told the Vikings don't even belong here. I am not taking away from their great regular season but, as everyone saw last week, they truly won the game on a miracle. The Vikings benefited in the first half from two Saints turnovers. Keep in mind, prior to the final-play 61 yard miracle TD pass, Minnesota was outgained by New Orleans and losing on the scoreboard DESPITE the two Saints turnovers. As for the Eagles, sure their game was a nail-biter too but Philly (like New Orleans) was also done in by turnovers last week. It's just that the Eagles defense stood so tall that they managed to weather the storm of an early fumble by RB Jay Ajayi and the "fluke" fumble (bad break) on a punt return. This led to the Falcons 10 points and otherwise we could be talking about a 15-0 shutout win for the Eagles last week. Again Philadelphia is getting no respect this week despite home field edge, continued fantastic defense, and the fact that QB Nick Foles grew more and more in confidence as last week's game went on. He overthrew some guys early but ended up with a solid overall performance and looked more and more comfortable as the game went on. Keep in mind this guy is no rookie. Foles has enjoyed plenty of success before at the NFL level and the Eagles can again play the "no respect" card this week. Two great defenses matched up here but the Vikes may have used up their "get out of jail" card already for this post-season with last week's miracle win. The Vikings have kept the dream alive of becoming the first team ever to host a Super Bowl but this Eagles team is now 8-1 at home this season with the only loss being in a season finale game against the Cowboys that meant nothing. Also, the Philly defense has allowed a TOTAL of only 29 points in their last 4 home games! The Vikings shut out the Packers (without Aaron Rodgers of course) in their final road game of the regular season but, prior to this, the Vikes allowed an AVERAGE of 23 points per game in their 6 true road games this season. In road games with a posted total between 38.5 and 42 points, Minnesota is 2-6 ATS. This line currently sits at a 3.5 in a lot of books as of Noon ET on Tuesday (the time I am posting this) but there are some 3's out there and it wouldn't surprise me if the line moves down to a solid 3 as the week goes on. The point is that you should play it now but it also brings another key stat to the forefront here. Philly has thrived in games like this all season long. In games with a line on the Eagles between -3 and +3 they are not only 5-0 ATS but also 5-0 SU. I expect a home dog upset here but also very happy to have the +3.5 points as an added bonus. Look for that stat to improve to a perfect 6-0 ATS on the season! 10* PHILADELPHIA

Total of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Game #312 Sunday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars @ 3:05 ET - The Jaguars defense is much better than one would think when they look at the final score of last week's upset win at Pittsburgh. Crazy things can happen in a game where you jump out to a 21-0 lead and that is exactly what happened in last week's game for Jacksonville. Keep in mind, the Jaguars actually allowed scores on only 3 of the Steelers first 9 possessions. The 6 stops featured 2 on downs, 2 on turnovers, and 2 punts. Jacksonville's problem in the AFC Championship Game won't be the defense, it's going to be the offense. Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is known for "dialing things up" that frustrate quarterbacks in a mold similar to Blake Bortles. Keep in mind, though the Jags put up a ton of points last week their offense has still averaged only 279 yards per game the last 3 weeks. Also, the Patriots defense at home has allowed an average of only 265 yards per game in their last 4 games at Foxboro. The Jaguars face a really stiff challenge here in terms of the Pats defense. Also, New England is well aware of the ball-hawking aspects of the Jags "turnover machine" defense. With that said, Tom Brady and Company are likely to feature more conservative play-calling on offense than you would typically expect from New England. Look for the Patriots to feature a lot of runs and quick, short passes and this will keep the clock moving in this one. The Under cashed in 9 of the Patriots last 12 games prior to last week's win over Tennessee sneaking over the total. In Jaguars true road games (not neutral site) against AFC opponents this season the under cashed in 5 of the 6 regular season games. There have only been 4 Overs in the Patriots last 12 conference championship game appearances and, indeed, another Under is likely in this one! 10* UNDER the total in New England

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #307 Sunday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints (+) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 4:40 ET - A big money move toward the Vikings throughout this week but one must keep in mind, their competition in the NFC North this season was Detroit (horrible defense), Green Bay (lost QB Rodgers to injury) and Chicago (the bad news Bears). As for the Saints, they did battle with Carolina and Atlanta this season and while every other NFL division (there are 8) finished with only 1 team with double digits in wins, the NFC South had THREE of them - New Orleans and the Panthers and Falcons. Another key comparison here is at QB where the Saints have Drew Brees  and the Vikings have Case Keenum. I know the Vikes have a fantastic defense but I still don't trust Keenum and this Minnesota offense and lets not forget that the Saints defense did improve a lot this season. The Vikings played 5 December games and never totaled more than 356 yards of offense. The Saints have totaled at least 400 yards of offense in 7 of their last 12 games. This game is being played indoors which further favors the better offense and New Orleans is certainly used to playing in domed stadiums. The Saints have revenge from losing at Minnesota to open up this season and they are 12-3 ATS when playing with revenge and also 10-3 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Vikings recent playoff history is not good with a 6-15 SU mark their last 21 games. With the line move here from an opener of 3.5 up to a 5.5, Minnesota is particularly over-valued here. 10* NEW ORLEANS

PA Insider - Rickenbach NFL Game #305 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Pittsburgh Steelers vs Jacksonville Jaguars @ 1:05 ET - Even though it will be very cold at Heinz Field this afternoon in Pittsburgh, the winds will be very light and skies will be clear. With that said, both offenses will be able to be fully functional here. I know the Jaguars offense did not look good versus Buffalo last week but that is helping to give some line value with the over here. Jacksonville is facing a Steelers defense that has allowed an average of 243 passing yards per game their last 9 games. Also, Pittsburgh has allowed 127 rushing yards per game their last 5 games. Of course the key to the over here is the Steelers playing with revenge from the home loss to Jacksonville earlier this season coupled with the fact that WR Antonio Brown is back for this game and the Jaguars have no way to stop all the Steelers weapons. Pittsburgh has put up an average of 30.3 points and 302 passing yards per game their last 7 games! On the ground the Steelers have averaged 124 rushing yards per game their last 3 games. The over is 5-1 in Pittsburgh's last 6 home games. The over is 26-14 in their January games too and the Steelers are 8-3 to the over as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. The Jaguars, prior to last week's low-scoring battle with Buffalo, were 8-3 to the over in playoff games. That trend resumes here a week later. 8* OVER the total in Pittsburgh

Saturday Night Special - Rickenbach NFL Game #303 Saturday 8* Tennessee Titans (+) @ New England Patriots @ 8:15 ET - The Patriots have incredible success both SU and ATS so I know it seems tough to fade them in a spot like this. They are at home and have had two weeks of rest and are laying less than two TDs in most spots as of Friday afternoon. However, the key to the value here is that the Titans play exactly the kind of style that can have them hanging around in this game. Tennessee loves to try and move the ball on the ground and control the clock and the one glaring weakness the Patriots do have is that their defense is not that great. They do have a rather low points per game total and certainly deserve credit for that but this New England team is allowing 366 yards per game on the season. The Patriots D allows more passing yards than the Titans do and also New England gives up 30 more rushing yards per game. That is even more impressive when you consider all the games where the Pats had a big lead and then teams are forced to throw the ball to come back. In fact, the Patriots did allow 4.7 rushing yards per carry and that is a very telling stat. The Titans ran for 202 yards in last week's upset win at Kansas City. New England is such a popular team that the odds maker simply have to over value them at times and that is the case here. The Titans are 10-7 (including last week's win) and only 2 of those 7 losses came by more than 10 points. I expect the Patriots to win this game but only by a single score. The Titans ground game and a respectable defense keeps them much more competitive in this game than many expect. Also, the upset win on the road last week does wonders for this team's confidence. They are going to be ultra competitive in Foxboro. 8* TENNESSEE

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NFL Game #302 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) vs Atlanta Falcons @ 4:35 ET - Nick Foles instead of Carson Wentz at QB is why this line is where it is and I won't hesitate to step in and take advantage. Everyone is giving Foles a bad rap coming into this game but people have to remember that he threw 4 TDs and 0 INTs in his first start after replacing Wentz. Then, in his next start the game did not matter at all (plus was played on Christmas Day) and ladies and gentlemen when your teammates aren't going "all out" that also effects you. That Christmas Day game against the Raiders didn't mean a thing and of course the season finale against the Cowboys was also a meaningless game in which he only threw 11 passes. Now in this game you will see every teammate going hard. The offensive line blocking like it is the last game of their career, the running backs hitting holes as hard as they can, receivers running routes crisp and sharp, etc. You get my point...THIS ONE COUNTS! The Eagles have had two weeks to get ready for this game and they are at home and mother nature has cooperated as well. The cold air is moving into Philly just in time for this game and no matter what anyone says a dome team like Atlanta is effected in a game like this. In fact their long-term history supports that as well. But I am not big on history. I am big on match-ups and the Eagles running game is going to be a big difference maker here. They run the ball better than the Falcons and also stop the run better than Atlanta does. In fact, the overall defense of Philly makes a big difference here. They are allowing just 13.4 ppg at home this season while the Falcons are allowing 21.6 ppg on the road this season. While the whole world lines up on Atlanta here, the sharp money will be on a disrespected team that should win this one handily. I am glad to have the 3 points but shouldn't need them. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Game #107 Sunday 10* Top Play Carolina Panthers (+) @ New Orleans Saints @ 4:30 ET - It is very hard to beat a division rival 3 times in one season. I am well aware of the fact that New Orleans won each of the first two meetings by double digits but Carolina had won 3 of the 4 meetings between these teams with the lone loss coming by only 3 points. The fact is that this line has now climbed all the way up to a full 7 points as of gameday morning and I feel we're getting great line value here. The Saints defense has shown great improvement this season but, keep in mind, the Panthers defense still rates as the better defense in this match-up. Also, Carolina rates a particular edge in the ground game as they are the stronger D against the rush and, even though the Saints have the better overall offense, the Panthers also outgain New Orleans on the ground. Against a divisional foe, when at home and off of a SU loss as a favorite and facing an opponent off of a SU loss, the Saints are 1-8 ATS! Carolina is 8-2 ATS when they are an underdog of greater than +1 against a divisional foe and they are playing with revenge. The Panthers are also 3-0 SU and ATS in the Wild Card round of the playoffs while the Saints are a long-term 9-12 ATS in January games. 10* CAROLINA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #105 Sunday 8* Buffalo Bills (+) @ Jacksonville Jaguars @ 1 ET - The Bills are riding the emotion of a 4-2 run to end the season that vaulted them into the playoffs thanks to the Bengals miracle last win versus the Ravens in their season finale. There is a lot of positive vibe flowing in the Buffalo locker-room right now and the stumbling Jaguars aren't going to shut that off. Jacksonville lost their final two games of the regular season. The Bills are 4-2 SU (and 5-1 ATS) in their last 6 visits to Jacksonville. Buffalo running back LeSean McCoy is now listed as probable for this game. The Bills are a huge dog here but have allowed only 18 points per game their last 6 games of the season. Keep in mind, that 6-game stretch included facing the Patriots twice! The Jaguars allowed 24 points or more 3 times in their final 6 games and none of those 3 teams are in the playoffs. That says a lot right there. The only 2 times the Bills allowed more than 16 points in their 6-game stretch it was to the Patriots and of course New England is the super bowl favorite. The Bills are a "bend but don't break" defense so their yardage stats are not as impressive as the Jaguars but truly Buffalo is playing better, more confident football, than Jacksonville coming into this one. Look for the Bills to improve to 3-0 ATS as a road dog of 7.5 to 10 points while Jacksonville drops to 8-14 ATS long-term as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points. 8* BUFFALO

NFC Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Game #103 Saturday 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons (+) @ Los Angeles Rams @ 8:15 ET - The Falcons regular season certainly may not have played out exactly like they wanted it to. But the fact is they are here and that means part one of their mission is complete. Rest assured Atlanta has been on a mission ever since the sickening loss to the Patriots in the Super Bowl last year where they blew a huge lead and lost in overtime. To get another chance they've got to get a few wins and I expect win number one here which is why I love the big points being offered here. The Rams are an up and coming team there is no doubt about that but they still are young and unproven when it comes to a big playoff match-up like this. Also, they played in the much more meager NFC West where Seattle dealt with injuries and struggled and the other two teams went a combined 14-18 with many of the 49ers wins coming late in the season. The point is that the Falcons played in the NFC's elite division this year as the Saints and Panthers each won 11 games and prevented Atlanta from taking the division title. The battle-tested Falcons have a huge edge over the Rams in this regard. Also, Atlanta is the much better team on defense (particularly against the run) and I expect that to be a factor here. Certainly the Rams have proven all season long they don't have much of a crowd edge in LA either! Los Angeles went 3-4 SU in home games this season while Atlanta went 5-3 SU in road games this year! The Falcons are on a 6-1 ATS run against NFC West opponents. The Rams are on an 0-4 ATS run in home games with a posted total between 45.5 and 49 points. Give me the proven, veteran team here. Grab the points but I do sense an outright upset here. 10* ATLANTA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #101 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Kansas City Chiefs vs Tennessee Titans @ 4:30 ET - The Chiefs will look to control the tempo here at home and they don't want to allow the Titans to get in their typical "ground and pound" style. It is that style that allowed Tennessee to get the low-scoring upset win at Kansas City in their most recent match-up in 2016. This time around, the Chiefs force the issue through the air. Keep in mind, Kansas City has averaged 280 passing yards per game in their last 5 games and Tennessee's weakness on defense is their pass D. The Titans, before their win over Jacksonville in the season finale, had allowed at least 284 passing yards in 4 of their last 6 games. The KC offense is going to attack the Titans weakness. However, don't be surprised if Tennessee scores surprisingly well here too. The Chiefs overall defense ranks as one of the weaker units in the NFL as they allowed 365 yards per game. The over went 3-1 this season in games where the Titans were an underdog. Also, Tennessee is a long-term 26-14 to the over in games played on grass. Cold temperatures (but right around freezing so not brutal) for this one and rather light winds and no precipitation. Both offenses will be fully functional here. 8* OVER the total in Kansas City

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #327 Sunday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 4:25 ET - This is expected to be Bruce Arians last game as head coach of the Cardinals. They would love nothing more than to prevent the Seahawks from making the playoffs by notching a huge upset win at Seattle. Granted, the Hawks could win and still not get in if Atlanta defeats Carolina. However, the point is that Arizona can make sure Seattle doesn't get in by getting the upset win here. I feel the Cardinals have a great shot at the upset here which is also why this play (getting big points) easily earned Top status for me. The Seahawks were actually outgained by 147 yards in their win at Dallas last week! Seattle's offense has averaged a paltry 142.5 yards per game the past 2 weeks! It is hard to cover a large spread when you're not moving the ball well and the Cardinals defense won't do them any favors this week. Keep in mind, Arizona's defense has still been solid this season. In fact, they're allowing less yards per game than Seattle is! Also, the Cardinals did outgain the Seahawks in their home loss in the earlier meeting this season! Also, home field has been worthless in recent meetings between these teams. The road team is 4-0-1 in the last 5 games. That's right, the home team has not a single SU win in the last 5 meetings and there was of course also the infamous 6-6 tie last season. I look for another very tight game here with Arizona going all out with 100% effort in this one for Arians. The Cardinals are 5-2 ATS in games with a posted total between 35.5 and 42 points. The Seahawks are only 2-5 ATS in games played in Seattle this season! 10* ARIZONA

Total of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #305 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills @ 4:25 ET - Very nice weather in Miami so both offenses will be able to operate at full efficiency in this one. Yes, because it is a divisional game and the Bills are still clinging to playoff hopes, one would expect a little extra defensive intensity for this one. However, the Dolphins have allowed 20 points or more in 9 of their last 10 games. In those 10 games, Miami has allowed an average of 28.7 points per game! As for the Bills, they've given up 33.8 points per game in their last 4 road games! Buffalo's offense has averaged 227 passing yards the past two weeks and the Dolphins pass defense has struggled the past 3 weeks. Of course this includes one match-up between these teams and that one totaled 40 points. However, prior to that meeting, each of the last 4 match-ups went over the total and they all totaled at least 50 points! The Dolphins offense is averaging 255 passing yards per game their past 8 games. The over is 7-1 when Miami is a home dog of 3 points or less. The over is 15-5 when Buffalo is a favorite. Also, the over is 6-2 ATS in Bills games when they are off of a loss in divisional action. 10* OVER the total in Miami

Earliest Cash Side - Rickenbach NFL Game #321 Sunday 8* Chicago Bears (+) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET - The points are simply too much here. This is a divisional game so the Bears are still going to bring a strong effort though their season has long been over. The Vikings do still have something to play for here (first round bye) but that also means that if they get up big they could take their foot off the gas and put things on cruise control. The fact is Minnesota may not ever get such a big lead. The Bears are known for close games as the favorite had covered only 2 of the last 10 games before Chicago won as a favorite versus Cleveland last week. With Bears games trending toward the dog, there is big value here as statistically, these teams are not as far apart as the line would lead you to believe. The Bears defense allows only 37.6 yards per game more than the Vikings. Minnesota's offense gains only 65.8 yards per game more than Chicago's offense. Also, 6 of the Bears last 7 losses have come by a margin of 10 points or less. This game is projected to be low-scoring which makes it even tougher to cover a large spread. The fact is that the Bears are 12-1 ATS in games with a posted total between 35.5 and 42 points the past 3 seasons. 8* CHICAGO

Earliest Cash Total - Rickenbach NFL Game #313 Sunday 8* OVER the total in New England Patriots vs New York Jets @ 1 ET - Big drop on this total as it has gone from a 46.5 down to a 43 as of gameday morning. Yes it will be very cold in Foxboro for this one but skies are expected to be clear and winds just moderate, nothing excessive. In other words, both offenses should be able to operate freely. What I really like about this total is that New England has a dangerous offense of course and they're still looking to lock up the top seed in the AFC. However, the Patriots defense is not that great. They actually rank near the bottom of the NFL statistically on defense. If the Jets just hit their average here (20 points) and the odds makers are right (like they typically are) about the Patriots winning by a 2 TD margin, that would make this a 34-20 game and that's a double digit cover for the over here. I'll take it! The Jets ran for 197 yards in last week's loss. The Patriots ran for 193 yards in last week's win. The ability to establish the run opens up opportunities in the passing game and both these defenses have been struggling against the pass. The over is 3-0 this season in New England's games as a favorite of 10 points or more. The over is 3-1 long-term when the Patriots are a home favorite of 14.5 to 21 points. The Jets are 6-1 to the over this season when New York is facing a team with a winning record. 8* OVER the total in New England

Primetime Punisher Top Play - Rickenbach NFL Game #131 Monday 10* Oakland Raiders (+) @ Philadelphia Eagles @ 8:30 ET - The Raiders got eliminated from playoff contention with Sunday's results but they already knew their chances were slim as tough losses have helped lead the way to a tough 6-8 record entering this match-up. The point is that the elimination is not a total shock and I fully expect Oakland to still want to perform well in a primetime Christmas night performance when they know all of the NFL world will be watching. The fact is that now all the pressure here is on the Eagles as they are still trying to secure the #1 see in the NFC. Also, with Nick Foles now in for Carson Wentz, the Eagles certainly are not quite as explosive on offense. Philly is 2-1 their last 3 games and both wins came by 8 points or less. The Raiders are 3-3 their last 6 games and one loss was by just a field goal and another by 11 points. In other words, the big points here are certainly offering big value. The Eagles have allowed 29.3 points per game the past 3 weeks. By comparison, the Raiders have allowed only 19.3 points per game their last 4 games! Philadelphia is a long-term 12-22 ATS when playing in a home game with a posted total between 45.5 and 49 points. The Raiders are 4-1 ATS when on the road in non-conference action and facing an opponent with a winning percentage of .401 or greater! The Raiders have covered 4 of the last 5 against Philly and though I expect the Eagles to get the win here I expect it to be by just a single possession as Raiders go to 5-1 ATS L6 versus Philadelphia. 10* OAKLAND

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #129 Monday 8* OVER the total in Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 4:30 ET - This is a contrarian play as most won't want an over considering the Texans QB situation. However, the odds makers are well aware of Houston's QB situation when setting the total and yet they pegged this game in the mid-40s. Why? Because there is reason to believe both of these defenses struggle. The Texans have had such a frustrating season that it shouldn't be a huge surprise that the defense is showing signs of having quit on the season. Houston has allowed an average of 441 yards of offense per game the past two weeks. Long-term also proves that this Texans defense just isn't what it once was. Houston has allowed 29.2 points per game their last 10 games. As for the Steelers, their defense could be "spent" here both physically and emotionally after the bitter loss to the Patriots last week. Keep in mind that gut-wrenching loss followed tough physical games with the division rival Ravens and Bengals. Pittsburgh is unlikely to have much juice left here on defense and they've allowed 28.3 points per game the last 4 games. The over is 4-2 this season in Texans games against teams with a winning record. Last week's Pittsburgh under was their first since November 12th and even though it stayed under that was only due to the high total as there were 51 points scored in the loss versus New England. 8* OVER the total in Houston

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #127 Sunday 10* Top Play Seattle Seahawks (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - The Cowboys have won 3 straight games and they're getting Ezekiel Elliott back this week and they are at home. Dallas has become an "automatic play" for many public bettors as a result this week. After all, the public watched the Seahawks get destroyed by the Rams last week in Seattle. In fact, the Seahawks have now lost two straight games so everyone is very "anti-Seattle" at this point in time. The Seahawks are a long-term 50-32 ATS when off of back to back SU losses. Seattle is also a long-term 70-39 ATS in December games. The Cowboys are known for fading late in the season. Yes, they are off of 3 straight wins but those teams have a combined record of 14-28 on the season! That is noteworthy here because Dallas is facing a much tougher challenge this week and, when the Cowboys, in the 2nd half of a season, face a team with a winning record on the year they have gone an ugly 2-9 ATS! Dallas is a long-term 11-20 ATS and the value is with the very hungry underdog Seahawks here. After getting thoroughly embarrassed (at home no less!) last week, they are relishing this opportunity to take down "America's Team" at "Jerry's World". Grab the generous points here but you shouldn't need any! 10* SEATTLE

Total Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Game #123 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Francisco 49ers vs Jacksonville Jaguars @ 4:05 ET - The 49ers are averaging 284 passing yards per game their last 6 games and will be more than up to the challenge presented by a solid Jaguars pass defense. The problem for San Francisco will be their own overall defense as they are allowing an average of 27.4 points per game at home this season. With Jacksonville looking to secure better post-season positioning the Jags will come at the 49ers hard in this one. Jacksonville is averaging 35 points per game in their last 3 games and The Jaguars are averaging 308 passing yards per game their last 3 games. Cloudy skies but no precipitation and light winds means perfect conditions for an over in San Francisco Sunday afternoon. Jacksonville is 11-5 to the over as a road fave of 3.5 to 7 points. The Jaguars are 3-0 to the over in games against the NFC West this season. The 49ers are 4-2 to the over in their last 6 home games. Jimmy Garoppolo has been playing very well since coming to the Niners and Blake Bortles is enjoying an excellent stretch of play for the Jaguars. The result should be an easy over here! 10* OVER the total in San Francisco

Rickenbach NFL Game #105 Sunday 8* Detroit Lions (+) @ Cincinnati Bengals @ 1 ET - The Lions are still in the hunt for a playoff spot and they won't let the hapless Bengals stand in their way. Cincinnati has lost 3 straight and has been blasted by an average margin of 18.7 points per game in those 3 defeats. The Bengals have scored just 7 points in each of their last two games and they've been held to 20 points or less in 6 of their last 7 games. By comparison, Detroit has scored at least 20 points in 7 straight games and has averaged 26 points per game during this hot streak that has seen them win 5 of 7. With this number down to a 3, there is a lot of value in taking the Lions with such a small spread to cover. In the 2nd half of a season, when facing a team with a losing record, Detroit is a long term 12-1 SU while the Bengals, when facing a team with a winning record, have gone 1-10 SU. That's a combined 22-2 SU factor favoring the Lions to win in this one! 8* DETROIT

Rickenbach NFL Game #115 Sunday 8* Atlanta Falcons (+) @ New Orleans Saints @ 1 ET - The Falcons are still in the hunt for a playoff spot and they have had the Saints number. Yes, this is a revenge game for New Orleans as they lost at Atlanta two weeks ago. However, that was their 3rd straight loss in this series as they were swept last season. Sometimes a team just has another teams number and lets not forget that the Falcons played in (and should have won) the Super Bowl last season. This Atlanta team won't quit here as this is a team on a mission. The Falcons are off of a non-covering win at Tampa Bay but they were in a poor scheduling spot as they were off of playing the Saints and Vikings and with another big game versus Saints and then a regular season finale versus the Panthers on deck. Prior to that ATS loss, Atlanta had covered 4 of their last 5 and they have SU wins in 5 of their last 6. The Falcons are a 6 point dog here and that is significant as they have only 1 loss by more than 6 points this season! New Orleans is on a 1-4 ATS run as the betting markets have over-valued them after their hot run. That appears to be the case again here and one glance at the injury report tells you that the Saints are the more banged up team too. New Orleans is 2-7 ATS when they are at home off of a double digit SU win. The Falcons are 9-1 ATS when off of a Monday game! 8* ATLANTA

Rickenbach NFL Game #120 Sunday 8* Kansas City Chiefs (-) vs Miami Dolphins @ 1 ET - A second straight cold weather game for the Dolphins and I expect them to struggle here just like they did in Buffalo. The Chiefs are playing their home finale and looking toward locking up the AFC West. There is no way that Kansas City comes out flat here even though they are are off back to back big divisional wins. The fact is that too much is at stake here for the Chiefs to be flat and their defensive dominance (known for that at Arrowhead Stadium) is likely to key the win. KC has forced 7 turnovers the past two weeks and Miami has turned the ball over 3 times or more in 4 of the past 5 weeks. As you can see from those numbers, the Dolphins are in trouble here and the average margin of their 8 losses this season is 17 points! So, yes the points look big here but don't worry about the Chiefs covering double digits. This should be complete dominance. The average yardage allowed by Kansas City in their last 4 home games is just 302 yards per game. The Dolphins defense, on the road, has allowed 431 yards per game in their last 3 games. Miami is 2-5 ATS on the road this season. The Chiefs are 7-3 ATS in games played on grass this season. Lay the big points! 8* KANSAS CITY

NFC North Game of the Year NFL Game #104 Saturday 10* Top Play Green Bay Packers (+) vs Minnesota Vikings @ 8:30 ET - The Packers certainly have had their share of ups and downs without Aaron Rodgers at the controls but one thing is for certain, there has been no quit in this Green Bay team. The Packers continue to battle hard including road losses by just a single possession at Carolina and Pittsburgh! Yes, Minnesota has been ultra hot this season but here the Vikings are laying more than a TD on the road in very cold conditions where points could be at a premium. You know the Packers would love nothing more than to knock off a hated division rival in a big upset and there is no doubt Green Bay is going to be up emotionally for this game. GB is attempting to avenge the 13 point loss at Minnesota earlier this season. The Packers are on a 6-3 ATS run when playing with revenge and also an 8-3 ATS run in December games. In road games with a posted total between 38.5 and 42 points, the Vikings are on a 1-6 ATS run. In true road games this season (played Browns at neutral site), Minnesota is 4-2 SU and the average margin of their 4 wins was 5.75 points with not a single win by more than 8 points! That creates fantastic value here and the hungry Packers are in this one all the way! 10* GREEN BAY

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #101 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Baltimore Ravens vs Indianapolis Colts @ 4:30 ET - The Ravens are working hard to secure a playoff spot and I wouldn't be surprised to see some breakdowns on defense in this one. Sometimes when teams start to feel the pressure they tend to have lapses in their level of play. This looks like a bit of a trap game for Baltimore coming off of back to back big road wins. However, the reason I am on the over and not on the big dog Colts here is because the Indianapolis defense is atrocious. They have the worst defense in the league which is also why it is amazing they have had 6 straight unders entering this contest. Yes a lot of that is, of course, due to the Colts shortcomings on offense but, the point is, with the league's worst defense, I expect this under trend to come to a halt here. The Ravens have won 5 of their last 7 games thanks to an offense averaging 30.7 points per game. The Colts have scored at least 18 points in 4 of their last 6 road games. You can see why I am expecting a 31-17 type game here. The over is on a 13-3 run in Indianapolis games played on grass. The over is 7-3 this season in Ravens games when playing with rest of 6 days or less between games. 8* OVER the total in Baltimore

Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Game #331 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons @ 8:30 ET - Both of the meetings between these teams last season went over the total. Their first meeting this season (3 weeks ago) also went over the total. The Buccaneers are a poor running team so they must look to move the ball through the air. The Bucs weakness on defense is defending the pass so the Falcons will attack with their passing game. Atlanta has averaged 333 passing yards per game in their last 5 match-ups with Tampa Bay. Weather conditions are projected to be perfect Monday Night in Tampa. The Buccaneers have lost 3 straight but they are averaging 23 points a game in their last 4 games and have averaged 261 passing yards per game during this stretch. The Bucs loss to the Lions last week stayed under the total but, prior to that, each of their last 3 games went over the total. Also, for Tampa Bay, that was the 3rd time in their last 4 games that their defense has allowed at least 365 passing yards! The Falcons defense has allowed an average of 24 points per game in their last 5 road games. 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #330 Sunday 8* Oakland Raiders (+) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:30 ET - The Cowboys are off of a road win at New York but the Giants have clearly thrown in the towel on the season. The Raiders, despite a loss to the Chiefs in Kansas City last week, certainly don't fall into the same category as the Giants. The betting markets have moved this line from around a pick'em to now a -3 on Dallas and, keep in mind, that was their line last week at New York. So are you telling me the 6-7 Raiders are in the same category as the 2-11 Giants? No way...and this is absolutely the definition of line value. Sure the Cowboys are still fighting to keep playoff hopes alive but so too are the Raiders and there is no way Oakland is going to bring anything less than 100% in this situation. This is Oakland's home finale and the Raiders are off of a road loss and haven't lost back to back games since the first half of October. As for the Cowboys, they are off of back to back wins but only one time this entire season have they managed to win 3 straight. Also, in road games this season the Cowboys have defeated the Giants, Redskins, and 49ers but those teams all have 5 wins or less on the season. In fact the combined record of those teams is 10-29. The Raiders have 6 wins just like the Cardinals team that Dallas also defeated on the road earlier this season but the Cowboys were outgained by Arizona in that match-up. Couple that with the fact that the 'Boys other two road games this season saw them lose at Atlanta and Denver by a combined score of 69-24 and I like my chances here with a Raiders team whose backs are against the wall. Oakland is 8-1 ATS when off of a SU loss in divisional action (lost at KC last week). The Raiders are also 4-1 ATS after facing the Chiefs. Dallas is on a 2-6-1 ATS run in games played in the final 4 weeks of a season. Fade the masses! 8* OAKLAND

AFC Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Game #326 Sunday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (+) vs New England Patriots @ 4:25 ET - The Steelers have won 8 straight games. Clearly Pittsburgh was looking ahead to this game as they struggled to get past the Ravens last week. Even though that was a divisional game for the Steelers they have been talking about this match with the Patriots for many weeks now. The Pats beat them in the regular season last year when the Steelers were without Ben Roethlisberger and then the Patriots eliminated them from the post-season with a big January win in Foxboro. This time however the Steelers host and this time Pittsburgh has a simply massive edge on defense. New England actually ranks as one of the worst defenses in the league this season while the Steelers are up near the top of the league as usual. This will prove to be a big difference-maker in this match-up. The Steelers offense has been "clicking" to say the least and Pittsburgh put up 39 points against the Ravens last week. The Steelers are 6-1 ATS when off of a game where they scored more than 35 points. Pittsburgh is 12-6 SU and 10-5 ATS in games with a line between +3 and -3. The Patriots are 1-3 ATS as a road fave of 3 points or less and they lost all 3 of those games outright! I expect another outright loss here as the Steelers get their revenge but I'll gladly grab the available points. 10* PITTSBURGH

Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Game #323 Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 4:05 ET - The Seahawks won the first meeting (in Los Angeles) despite being outgained by 134 yards. The key for Seattle was being +3 in turnovers. Not only was that a bit of a "phony final" the fact is that this is a very tough spot for the Seahawks as they had to travel all the way down to Florida for last week's game - a loss at Jacksonville. Seattle still holds the attention of the public due to their long-term success (particularly at home). However, the Seahawks only real home win of note this season was against the Eagles and Seattle was outgained by over 100 yards in that victory too. Again the Hawks benefited from turnovers in that one. This is still a Seattle defense that is hurting due to the loss of Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman to injury. The Rams come into this game hungry off of a home loss to those same Eagles. Look for Los Angeles to get their revenge here as they are 5-1 SU in road games this season. The Seahawks have struggled in games projected to be tight ones as they are 1-4 SU and ATS in games with a line between +3 and -3 this season. The Rams are a stellar 10-1 ATS when they are on the road in divisional action after scoring 35 or more points in their prior game! After the high-scoring loss to the Eagles last week, LA takes out their frustration on an over-rated Seattle team that is not as strong as they've been in the past. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS

Earliest Cash Total - Rickenbach NFL Game #315 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans @ 1 ET - Yes the Texans are down to their 3rd string QB but it is TJ Yates who has plenty of experience in the Texans system. He is 30 years old and, though he hasn't played a lot, it is not as if Houston is sticking some rookie into the game this week. He threw for two touchdowns in last week's loss to San Francisco after Tom Savage got hurt. Also, the Texans are catching the Jaguars off of a huge win over Seattle. With this total dropping to a 38 as of game day morning, I love the value with the over. The Texans defense (seemingly demoralized as the season has faded away) has allowed an average of 27 points per game the last 7 games. Houston is averaging 253 passing yards per game and the Jaguars have allowed 5.6 yards per carry on the ground the past two weeks so the Texans offense should be able to move the ball here. The problem for Houston will be the defense not being able to hold off of a confident Jaguars offense that is averaging 25 points per game on the season and 28 points per game the last 3 weeks. The Jags are on a 7-3 run to the over in December games and the weather will be perfect in Jacksonville today. 8* OVER the total in Jacksonville

Earliest Cash Side - Rickenbach NFL Game #314 Sunday 8* Buffalo Bills (-) vs Miami Dolphins @ 1 ET - The Dolphins are off of a huge upset win over the Patriots on Monday night. As impressive as that was, one should not lose sight of the fact that Miami had turned the ball over 11 times in their 3 prior games. Also, the Dolphins have won just once in their last six games away from home and those 5 losses came by an average margin of 23.2 points per defeat! The Bills are 5-2 at home this season and battling hard to stay alive in the playoff race. This is their home finale and with a tough game at New England on deck before traveling to Miami for their regular season finale, Buffalo knows that a sweep of the Dolphins is likely essential to their playoff hopes. The Fins won both games from the Bills last season and Buffalo is ready for revenge this season. It begins with this match-up. Miami is a long-term 13-28 ATS after playing on Monday Night Football. The Bills are a long-term 43-24 ATS in home games with a posted total between 38.5 and 42 points. The Dolphins are also 1-6 ATS when they are on the road off of back to back SU wins and now facing an opponent with a winning record. The Bills are favored by 3.5 in some spots and that is noteworthy here as Buffalo is 5-0 ATS when favored by more than 3 points against a divisional foe that is off of an upset win as an underdog. The back to back wins for Miami including the big upset win over the Pats and the fact it is a short week for the Dolphins combine to make this a great spot for the Bills. 8* BUFFALO

AFC West Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Game #305 Saturday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers (-) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:25 ET - The Chargers and Chiefs both have solid offenses (particularly in the passing game). However, they key to the value here is that Los Angeles is much better in terms of pass defense in comparison with Kansas City. Of course that is why you're seeing this line right around a pick'em despite the fact that the Chiefs have won 7 straight in this series and also have the home field edge here! Don't be fooled, the Chargers are priced this way for a reason and I am jumping all over them in this spot. KC finally got back into the win column last week but they had previously lost 4 straight games. As for red hot LA, they come into his game having won 4 straight games! The Chargers are a long-term 15-7 SU (and ATS) as a road fave of 3 points or less. Los Angeles is also on an 8-4 ATS run when playing with revenge. LA has averaged 32.8 points per game their last 4 games. The Chiefs have averaged only 18.6 points per game their last 5 games. The Chargers pass defense has allowed only 181.5 passing yards per game their last 4 games while the Chiefs pass defense has given up 248.5 passing yards per game on the season! Kansas City was on a 1-6 SU and ATS run prior to last week's win versus Oakland and I don't see them getting two straight wins over very hungry division rivals! 10* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS