Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #303 Saturday 8* Detroit Lions (-) vs Chicago Bears @ 4:30 ET - Sure the Bears numbers looked great last week at Cincinnati but they caught the Bengals off of a heart-breaking loss to the division rival Steelers. Cincy was about as flat as a team could be last week and give Chicago credit for taking advantage. However, the Bears now take on a Lions team that is in a fight to stay alive in the playoff race and I don't expect Chicago to be able to keep up here. Detroit has averaged 27 points in their last 6 games. By comparison, the Bears had averaged 14.3 points per game in their 6 games prior to the big win against a deflated Cincinnati team. That big margin of victory last week for Chicago has led to exceptional line value here as the Lions are the vastly superior team. Keep in mind, the Bears had averaged just 244.7 TOTAL yards per game their 6 prior games. The Lions are averaging 268.2 PASSING yards per game on the season. Chicago may hang around for a little bit in this game but the Lions will pull away as the game goes on and that makes the small number here a very manageable one. Detroit is 12-4 SU (and 11-5 ATS) when facing a team with a losing record. The Bears are playing with revenge here but have gone 0-6 SU (and 1-5 ATS) in that situation! 8* DETROIT

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #301 Thursday 8* Denver Broncos (-) @ Indianapolis Colts @ 8:25 ET - First off, the common line at the time of this posting is -2.5 -115. With that said, the money line is the way to go here if you have access to it as the money line is priced as low as -135 so, for just 20 cents more, you can make -1 and -2 be winning results for you. I do, of course, look for Denver to win this game by 3 points or more or I wouldn't be on it. I love the fact that the Broncos (other than the 0-13 Browns of course) are the only team in the NFL that is without a road win this season and yet they odds makers made them the favorite here! Do you really think the odds makers made a "mistake"? I certainly don't! The fact is that, though both offenses have struggled this season, one thing that no one can argue is that the Broncos have one of the best defense in the league while the Colts certainly have one of the worst. Also, Denver is off of a shutout home win versus the Jets where their defense totally dominated. The Broncos are 8-0 ATS when on the road and facing a non-divisional opponent that has a winning percentage under .250 on the season! Denver is also 10-2 ATS when off of a SU (and ATS) win and facing a team that is off of back to back SU losses. The Colts are 1-5 ATS this season in games with a posted total between 35.5 and 42 points. That means we have combined factors here of 23-3 (88%) favoring the Broncos against Indianapolis Thursday. I'll take it! 8* DENVER

Divisional Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Game #134 Monday 10* Top Play Miami Dolphins (+) vs New England Patriots @ 8:30 ET - The Patriots need one more win to clinch the AFC East and, indeed, the Pats are likely to get that here. However, they are vastly over-priced in my opinion. Of course this is what happens when you have the long-term reputation that New England does plus when you come into a game on an 8-game winning streak! Also, the Patriots have covered 6 straight games after a ridiculous ATS run last season (including the playoffs and their miracle Super Bowl comeback win). The point is that the Pats are highly regarded by the betting markets as a result and, in this case, they have become over-priced. Keep in mind, New England has a huge game on deck with the Steelers at Pittsburgh. The Patriots, though they would say otherwise, can't help but be peeking ahead at that showdown with the other top team in the AFC. Also, this is part of a stretch of 5 road games in 6 weeks and I feel it finally catches up with the Pats here. The Dolphins are 3-2 in home games this season and one defeat came by 10 points (despite a yardage edge for Miami of over 100 yards) and the other defeat came by just 3 points. The Patriots find a way to win this one but the Dolphins stay well within the inflated number! Miami is 9-2 ATS when they are at home against an AFC opponent on a winning streak of 3 games or more. Also, the Dolphins are 10-1 ATS when they are at home in a divisional game and they have a losing record and are playing with revenge against an opponent with a winning record. The Patriots are 1-4 ATS when on the road after a game in which they allowed less than 10 points. New England is also 0-7 ATS as road favorite of more than 8 points against an AFC opponent that has a winning percentage of .201 or greater on the season. Also, the Pats covered by double digits versus Buffalo last week and they are 2-11 ATS when playing in divisional action and off of a divisional game where they covered the spread by 10 or more points. Add it all up and you have angles that combine for 41-6 (87%) ATS supporting the Dolphins. 10* MIAMI

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Pittsburgh Steelers (-) vs Baltimore Ravens @ 8:30 ET - The Ravens have won 3 straight games and that certainly looks very impressive on the resume but they've benefited from 11 turnovers in those 3 games. Also, the combined record of 16-20 of those 3 opponents is certainly unimpressive. Baltimore faced Green Bay without Aaron Rodgers and Houston without Deshaun Watson and then beat the Lions by 24 despite only having a total yardage edge of just TWO yards in the game. The result is line value here as the Steelers should win this game by at least a TD. They blew out the Ravens in Baltimore earlier this season and it was no fluke as they won by 17 in a game they were up 19-0 at the half and a game in which Pittsburgh dominated the ground game. As an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, Baltimore is 5-8 ATS and 1-12 SU so, as you can see, the likelihood of an upset here is remote. That is significant here because the Steelers are a long-term 51-30 ATS as a home fave of 3.5 to 7 points. Also, the Ravens are just 3-3 SU against teams with a winning record this season while the Steelers are 3-0 SU and ATS versus teams above .500 on the season. Baltimore has lost each of its past two games against the Steelers and that sets up an interesting system here. Entering this season Pittsburgh is 10-2 ATS when facing a divisional opponent off of a SU win that is now facing the Steelers with double revenge. Also, the Steelers entered the season 8-1 ATS when facing a divisional opponent that is off of a non-divisional game where they scored more than 35 points. As for the Ravens, they are an ugly 2-12 ATS when they enter a game with a winning record and are off of a non-divisional game and now facing a divisional opponent with a winning record. They already failed to get the cover in this scenario earlier this season versus the Steelers and I look for them to again fall short in the same scenario in the rematch. 8* PITTSBURGH

Non-Conf Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Jacksonville Jaguars (-) vs Seattle Seahawks @ 4:25 ET - The Jaguars, as of early Sunday morning, are -2.5 on the point spread but actually as low as a -125 on the money line. I would certainly suggest grabbing the money line on this one if you access to it. The Seahawks are off of their huge upset win over the Eagles last week and the defense feels like they proved themselves. While they certainly deserve some credit for the win let's not forget that Seattle's D is still without Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor and they did allow 425 yards to the Eagles last week. I have no doubt that had Eagles QB Carson Wentz not fumbled at the goal line (into the end zone for a touch back) when Philly was going in for the tying score early 3rd quarter, the Seahawks would not have won the game. The Eagles moved the ball up and down the field but shot themselves in the foot throughout that game. The result is line value this week as everyone loves Seattle while the Seahawks are still injured and vastly over-rated in my opinion. This is especially true when they are on the road but, overall, Seattle only has two wins over quality foes (LA Rams and Eagles) and the Seahawks were outgained by over 100 yards in each game. I'll gladly grab the 8-4 Jaguars at home in this one. In the Jags last 5 games that were not true road games (home or neutral site) they've outgained the opposition by an average of 167 yards per game! The Seahawks are on a 3-8 ATS run in games played on grass. The Jaguars are 6-3 ATS (and 7-2 SU) in games played on grass this season. 10* JACKSONVILLE

Blowout Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Los Angeles Rams @ 4:25 ET - The Eagles are done. They're left for dead. After that loss to the Seahawks on primetime last week it proves they are a fraud and really aren't a very good football team. I jest of course as really it is funny to listen to the so-called experts talk about the Eagles after last week's loss. Turnovers happen, it is part of the game and sometimes it can be the turning point in a game too. Last week the Eagles went into Seattle and piled up over 400 yards of offense and yet still ended up with only 10 points on the scoreboard. It was one of the craziest results you'll ever see and you better believe they're going to be ready to bounce back big this week. They're catching the Rams at the right time too as Los Angeles is off of back to back wins over a strong Saints team and then a divisional foe last week. That sets this one up very well and another key here is the way these teams match up. The Eagles have one of the best rushing offenses in the league while the Rams are among the worst teams in the league for rush defense. On the other side of the ball, Philadelphia is the best defense in the league against the run. This will force Jared Goff to have to beat the Eagles defense through the air while Carson Wentz gets the luxury of beating the Rams defense both ways, through the air and overland. Los Angeles is only 2-8 ATS when at home playing with revenge (lost at Philly in 2014) and off of a divisional road game. Also, LA entered this season with an 0-11 ATS mark when playing with revenge against a non-divisional foe that has a winning record! The Eagles are 14-3 SU the last 17 games that Lane Johnson has played in. He is a key member of the offensive line and the Eagles went 5-1 in his starts last season and are 9-2 in the 11 starts he has made this season. Johnson and the rest of a strong offensive line power a huge ground game for the road victory here. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Carolina Panthers (+) vs Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET - The Vikings have covered 7 straight games and are on an 8-game winning streak. However, last week's tight win at Atlanta was the first time this season that Minnesota has a road win over a team that currently has a winning record. Keep in mind, the Vikes got blasted at Pittsburgh earlier this season. Not only is this a 3rd straight road game for Minnesota, the Vikings are facing a Panthers team that is angry off of their double digit loss at New Orleans last week. The line has continued to move this week and the Panthers are now a field goal underdog in this match-up. I love the value here as Carolina is also 8-0 ATS when they are an underdog and facing an opponent who is off of an upset win as an underdog! The Vikes were a small dog against the Falcons last week and won outright so that system is in play here! Also, Minnesota is 1-5 ATS when on the road after an upset win as an underdog. 8* CAROLINA

Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* OVER the total in Kansas City Chiefs vs Oakland Raiders @ 1 ET - Nice weather this afternoon in Kansas City considering it is mid-December. Clear skies, temperatures in the 50s, rather light winds. Considering both of these offenses are better throwing the ball than running the ball and both defenses struggle against the pass, I expect plenty of fireworks in this one. The Raiders D has benefited the past two weeks by facing the anemic offenses of the Giants and Broncos. Now Oakland will have to contend with a revenge-minded Chiefs team that got their offense rolling again last week with 474 total yards against the Jets. The trouble for KC was that their defense allowed 488 yards to New York and now the Chiefs take on an Oakland offense that has some swagger back with wins in 4 of its last 6 games while averaging 26 points per game in the 4 wins. When these teams met in Oakland two months ago they combined for 930 yards of offense. I expect another wild one in the rematch. The over is 3-0 this season when Kansas City is a home favorite in a range of 3.5 to 7 points. The over is 21-11 in Oakland's games with a posted total between 42.5 and 49 points. 8* OVER the total in Kansas City

Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Cleveland Browns (+) vs Green Bay Packers @ 1 ET - The Browns have very few chances left to earn a victory this season and I look for them to make the most of this one. Green Bay is off of a win versus Tampa Bay last week but they were fortunate as they were outgained by 119 yards in that game. QB Aaron Rodgers could be back next week but, in his absence, the Packers have certainly struggled badly. Prior to the win over the Buccaneers (again, a fortunate win!), Green Bay had lost 5 of their 6 prior games. Of course it is still hard to tout an 0-12 team but the Browns have a small sense of optimism this week as there were finally some front office changes made that could indicate a new direction for the team after another strategy failed in hapless Cleveland. The Browns did cover versus the Chargers last week. Though they failed to cover their most recent home game, 3 of their first 4 home games were losses by just 3 points apiece. The point is that Cleveland does play better at home and they've been right on the cusp of getting over the hump. I am projecting this is the week they do it and will grab the points but I don't expect to need them. Green Bay is 1-5 SU and ATS as a road fave of 3 points or less. 8* CLEVELAND

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Thursday 8* OVER the total in Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints @ 8:25 ET - This total has gone from the mid-50s all the way down to as low as 51 as of Wednesday evening and I like the value here with the over. Yes the Falcons are off of a low-scoring game but they faced the Vikings who have one of the top-ranked defenses in the league. Prior to that sub-par effort the Falcons had produced 34 points in back to back weeks and had averaged 27.4 points per game in going 4-1 in their 5 previous games. The Saints defense has certainly improve this season but the competition has toughed in recent weeks and New Orleans has allowed 26 points per game the past 3 weeks. As for Atlanta's points allowed, before giving up just 14 versus Minnesota, the Falcons had allowed at least 20 points in 9 of their 10 prior games. Now Atlanta's D faces one of the best offenses in the league and the Saints have averaged 32.5 points per game in their 8 games since their early season bye allowed them to make adjustments and really get rolling. The last two match-ups between these division rivals averaged a total of 73.5 points scored. While I don't expect this one to get that high we should expect close to 60 in this one. The over is 8-2 in Falcons home games with a posted total of 49.5 points or more. The over is 19-8 when New Orleans is a road favorite of 3 points or less. The Saints are particularly dangerous when you put them on a "fast track" and the over is 6-2 this season (and 19-11 long-term) in games played on turf. 8* OVER the total in Atlanta

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Monday 8* Pittsburgh Steelers (-) @ Cincinnati Bengals @ 8:30 ET - The Bengals are 5-6 on the season and off of back to back wins. However, Cincinnati has not beaten a single team that currently has a winning record this season. The Bengals best win would be over a 6-6 Bills team. Their other wins include 2 over the 0-12 Browns and 1 each over the 3-9 Colts and 3-9 Broncos. Cincy's last 2 wins have been over a Cleveland team that has lost 13 straight dating back to last season and a Denver team that has lost 8 straight games. The Steelers 9 wins this season include a dominating win in Pittsburgh over these Bengals in late October. Of the other 8 wins the Steelers have, only 2 have been against teams that currently have a losing record this season. Also, Pittsburgh has beaten teams that have the following current winning records: Vikings (10-2), Titans (8-4), and Ravens (7-5). Until the Bengals prove they can step up against a quality opponent I am backing a 9-2 Steelers team that has plenty of motivation here. If Pittsburgh loses this game then their division lead over the Ravens could quickly slip to 1 game with a loss versus Baltimore next week! I am aware of WR Antonio Brown's questionable status for tonight's game but the Steelers are loaded with plenty of weapons in comparison with the Bengals. Also, Cincinnati is 0-7 ATS as a divisional home dog of more than 4 points. The Steelers are 10-0 ATS as a favorite when they are off of a game where they allowed 28 points or more. Also, the fact that they allowed 28 points versus Green Bay is a bit deceiving as the Steelers outgained the Packers by 155 yards but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That result (a 3 point non-covering win as a 2 TD fave) is resulting in line value this week. 8* PITTSBURGH

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 8:30 ET - The Seahawks are still without defensive end Cliff Avril who started all 16 games the past 3 seasons and totaled 20.5 sacks the past 2 seasons. Seattle also is without cornerback Richard Sherman and strong safety Kam Chancellor. Also, when you look at the Seahawks overall injury report heading into this game, they've got a number of newer injuries which have resulted in guys being listed as doubtful or out for this game. This is why we're getting extreme line value here. Seattle is simply not healthy and they're now taking on the top team in the league that also is the only team in the league to score at least 20 points in all 11 games this season. The Eagles have won 9 straight games and they've covered 8 straight games and yet the WOUNDED Seahawks are getting a lot of attention from the betting markets this week. Everyone likes to point to Seattle's great home record and their success in primetime but, ladies and gentlemen, this Hawks team is very short-handed right now on defense! As for the Eagles defense, they are one of the best in the league and they are also healthier than they've been for much of this season. QB Carson Wentz is NOT the type of quarterback to struggle in a tough road venue like CenturyLink Field in Seattle. Yes, the Eagles lost here last year but that was his rookie season and was part of a 2-9 stretch for Philly. They are a different team this year and, remember, they went 5-1 last season when offensive tackle Lane Johnson was available. This season Philadelphia has lost only one game with him in the lineup. Look for the Eagles to make it 10 straight wins and 9 straight covers while dropping Seattle to 1-5 ATS in home games this season. Keep in mind, the Seahawks only have one win against a team with a winning record this season and that was when they were healthier and faced the Rams and won despite being outgained by 134 yards! In other words, a fortunate win. Seattle won't be so fortunate here against an Eagles team that is rolling! 10* PHILADELPHIA

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals (+) vs Los Angeles Rams @ 4:25 ET - This is a very tough spot for the Rams and great spot for the Cardinals and that is why I am unloading on this big dog with a big play. Los Angeles is off of a huge win last week versus the red hot Saints. On deck for the Rams is a huge game with the red hot Eagles. In other words, even though this is a divisional game, this is a truly tough spot for LA to remain focused. Not only are the Cards only 5-6 on the season but the Rams blasted them 33-0 in London in late October. That makes this the perfect "flat spot" for Los Angeles (off New Orleans and with Philadelphia on deck) and yet you've got a highly motivated home dog on the other side of the field. I love having Arizona plus a full TD here as their defense has been particularly strong of late. The Cardinals have allowed an average of just 298 yards per game their last 4 games. Of course the Rams defense has been strong too but how much will they have left in the tank for a "trap game" like this? I feel certain it won't be enough! The Cardinals last 2 wins versus the Rams have come by an average margin of 31 points per game while their 2 losses to the Rams, prior to that ugly one in London, each came by 4 points or less. Entering this season, Los Angeles was 1-11 ATS when facing an opponent off of a SU win as an underdog. That is the case here with the Cardinals as they upset the Jaguars last week as a 6-point dog. That gives the Cards extra confidence as they fight to remain alive in the wild card race. Arizona coach Bruce Arians, with last week's win versus Jacksonville, has led his team to a 10-2 ATS record when they are at home and facing an opponent off of a SU and ATS win in their prior game. Perfect spot to upset the Rams here. Whether the Cards win outright or not, I am certainly comfortable with having them plus the big points here! 10* ARIZONA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Detroit Lions (+) @ Baltimore Ravens @ 1 ET - The Ravens are off of a hard-fought win versus the Texans on Monday night. Baltimore also has a game at division rival Pittsburgh on deck. This is not a good spot for the Ravens. While Baltimore comes in on short rest, the Lions come in with extra rest as they played on Thanksgiving Day versus the Vikings. Red hot Minnesota got the better of Detroit and that has the hungry Lions ready to go here. Detroit is 4-1 SU on the road this season. Also, they haven't faced the Ravens since 2013 but that was a home loss and the Lions are 8-1 ATS as a revenging road dog of less than 6 points. Baltimore is 3-8 SU and 2-8-1 ATS in non-conference games! Also, the Ravens are off of back to back wins but they faced two teams (Packers and Texans) that are each without their starting QBs. When Baltimore enters a game on a streak of 2 or more consecutive wins, the Ravens have gone 1-5 SU and 1-4-1 ATS. Additionally, Baltimore is 1-5 ATS after a Monday night game and also 0-7 ATS in their game prior to facing the Steelers. Remember the Ravens got crushed in this role earlier this season when they had a home game versus Pittsburgh on deck and they went to London and got demolished by the Jaguars. 8* DETROIT

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Kansas City Chiefs (-) @ New York Jets @ 1 ET - The Chiefs have struggled recently so the Jets are getting a lot of action in this one. But have those people who are jumping on New York actually watched the Jets play recently? This Jets team is bad. The way they handled situations last week versus Carolina was deplorable and that is a game they never should have lost. It just shows how bad the Jets truly are. Now certainly the Chiefs, losers of 3 straight and 5 of 6, have not played well of late but this Kansas City team is still far superior to the Jets. Keep in mind, the Chiefs have allowed an average of just 14 points per game their past two games. Also, KC has held 7 of their last 10 opponents to 20 points or less. By comparison, the Jets have allowed 24 points or more in 4 of their last 6 games. Also, New York has allowed an average of 25 points per game in their last 5 home games. Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has led his team to an 11-2 ATS mark when they are off of SU loss as a favorite and facing a team with a losing record that is off of a SU loss. Kansas City is 7-1 ATS as a fave of less than 6 points when facing a team with a winning percentage under .400 and the Jets are 4-7, .364 on the season. The Chiefs also are on an 8-2 ATS run as a favorite of 3 points or less. The Jets have already begun another one of their typical ugly late season stretches and are now 2-7 SU and 2-6-1 ATS in games played in weeks 10 through 13. The Chiefs are also 12-2 ATS when they are a road fave of less than 7 points against an AFC opponent. KC is the better team and has played the tougher schedule this season in comparison with the Jets and one of these teams today will snap their slump. I'll gladly take the stronger team laying the small number in a case like this. Fade the masses who have brought the Chiefs down to a 3-point fave here. I'll take it! 8* KANSAS CITY

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Thursday 8* Dallas Cowboys (+) vs Washington Redskins @ 8:25 ET - Everyone is down on Dallas right now and that is understandable. However, with money pouring in on the Redskins here and the line moving from Cowboys being favored to now Washington being the favorite at -2 as of early gameday morning, you can almost sense what is about to happen here. I expect Dallas to bounce back big and continue their recent string of success against the Redskins. The public is very anti-Cowboys right now and there are grumblings from Dallas fans everywhere about firing Jason Garrett. It is most often, when a team is in a dire situation like this, that they step up and pull it together and surprise everyone and that is exactly what I expect here. Yes the Redskins are off of a 20-10 win but that was against an awful Giants team and that game was tied at 10 apiece very late in the fourth quarter. Prior to that victory the Redskins had lost 4 of 5 and their lone win came by just 3 points in a game in which Washington was actually outgained by nearly 200 yards! In other words, a fortunate win for the Redskins just like last week was a fortunate cover for Washington too! Both teams have injury issues but left tackle Tyron Smith is listed as probable for this game for the Cowboys and certainly they miss Ezekiel Elliott but Alfred Morris has averaged 5.8 yards per carry on the season and I expect Dallas to use him even more in this match-up. Plus Dak Prescott is ready for a bounce back game after recent poor performances. Yes, the Cowboys looked bad against the Chargers no doubt but, prior to that, the first two games they lost without Elliott were to Atlanta and Philadelphia and those are two of the top teams in the NFC! The Redskins are a decent team but certainly not at the same level of the Falcons or Eagles. That said, the Cowboys are ready to respond off of 3 straight blowout losses and they'll do just that against their most storied rival. They've beaten the Redskins 3 straight times and Washington has only covered 7 of 22 (32%) as a road favorite of 3 points or less. I am fading the masses here and going with a contrarian play because the Cowboys are angry and ready to respond on national TV tonight! 8* DALLAS

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Monday 8* Baltimore Ravens (-) vs Houston Texans @ 8:30 ET - The Ravens have been a great team in primetime games and they are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 MNF appearances. I also like the fact that the Ravens bye was earlier this month so this is just their 2nd game since the bye and they've got fresh legs and are healthier than a Texans team whose bye was 5 weeks ago. Also, Houston sorely misses QB DeShaun Watson. I know Tom Savage played well at QB for the Texans last week but now he faces a ball-hawking Ravens defense that forced 5 turnovers at Green Bay last week when they faced another back-up QB. Also, in each of their last two home games Baltimore has forced a pair of turnovers. This is the Ravens first home game in a month and they are fired up to make the most of it on Monday Night! Remember that Baltimore destroyed Miami 40-0 in a Thursday night game to wrap up October as their primetime success continues. As for the Texans, they are an awful 1-9 ATS in their last 10 MNF appearances. Also, Houston is just 2-7 ATS when they are a dog of more than 3 points in the first of back to back road games and they do have a divisional game on deck at Tennessee on Sunday! The Texans are just 3-10 ATS when they have the Titans on deck. Houston won by 10 last week against Arizona but they are 2-8 ATS under coach Bill O'Brien when they are an underdog and coming off of a SU win by a double digit margin. The Texans, if they had Watson under center, would have the offensive edge but they don't and I am expecting a big game from Ravens QB Joe Flacco here as he takes advantage of a weak Houston pass defense. Comparing the defenses here, the Ravens have a huge edge (especially with no Brian Cushing or JJ Watt for the Texans). Of course Baltimore also have the home field edge and rest edge since they had that recent bye. The Ravens D has produced shutouts in 2 of their last 3 games. The Houston D has given up an average of 36.8 points per game in their last 3 road games. Now you can see why I am calling for a home rout here! 8* BALTIMORE

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* OVER the total in Pittsburgh Steelers vs Green Bay Packers @ 8:30 ET - The Steelers have allowed 17 points or less in each of the 5 games during their current 5-game winning streak. However, Pittsburgh has allowed 290.3 passing yards per game the last 3 weeks. The Packers were done in by turnovers last week but, even without Aaron Rodgers at QB, they have averaged over 200 passing yards per game their last 3 contests. Now, I know those aren't numbers to get overly excited about in terms of the Green Bay offense but what I really like about this match-up is that the Packers are hurting at the running back position too and the Steelers run defense has been great. For that matter the GB run defense has also been phenomenal. The point is that the Packers and Steelers are both going to have to go with predominately a pass-based offense today. Of course plenty of passing is what you want when you're on an over and the Steelers are likely to shred the Packers secondary here. Ben Roethlisberger and Company have led Pittsburgh to an average of 273.8 passing yards per game their last 6 games. Green Bay, before facing a struggling Ravens offensive attack, had allowed 315 passing yards per game their three prior games. The over is 6-1 when the Packers are a double digit dog! The Steelers, in their last 5 regular season home games against teams with a winning percentage of .667 or less, have gone 4-1 to the over. More of the same here as it will be cold at Heinz Field but no precipitation and light winds! 8* OVER the total in Pittsburgh

Blowout Total of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Rams vs New Orleans Saints @ 4:25 ET - Perfect weather conditions in LA this afternoon. Many will look at this total and fear it is too big but I don't foresee many stops for either defense in this one. The Saints have some injury issues on defense and their offense is a machine. Each team comes into this game averaging 30 points per game on the season. The last time these two teams met they totaled 70 points at New Orleans last season. I am not saying we'll get that here but I do expect at least 60 and this total has dropped from its opener and is around 53 as of very early gameday morning. The Rams lost at Minnesota last week but had averaged 36 points per game in winning each of their 4 prior games. The Saints dropped their first two games of the season but have since won 8 straight and averaged 33 points per game in the process. New Orleans showed a lot of resiliency in coming back and forcing overtime against the Redskins with a huge fourth quarter last week. These are two of the top passing teams in the league. I know the Saints defense has improved but they do have some injury concerns and also exerted a lot of effort (and yet still allowed 456 yards) in the OT win over the Redskins last week. The Rams defense had looked great because they were facing struggling offenses like Arizona, Houston, and the Giants but things turned in a hurry versus Minnesota last week as LA was gashed for 451 yards. Against better teams like the Vikings, Jaguars, Redskins, and Cowboys, the Rams allowed an average of 416 yards per game. They also allowed 421 to the 49ers earlier this season. Drew Brees and Company are in for a huge day here but I also expect Jared Goff and Company to match the Saints score for score in what should be a shootout. New Orleans is 12-5 to the over in games with a line between +3 and -3. Also, the Saints are 3-0 to the over as an underdog this season plus a long-term 22-11 to the over in games against the NFC West. LA is 13-7 to the over in home games with a posted total of 49.5 points or more. The Rams are also on a 4-1 run to the over in games against the NFC South. 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles

NFC West Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Seattle Seahawks (-) @ San Francisco 49ers @ 4:05 ET - Had the 49ers NOT beaten the Giants before enjoying their bye week last week this situation would be different as San Francisco would have been coming out of the bye with a winless record. However, since the Niners did beat the G-men before the bye, there is not the same hunger with San Fran that we would have otherwise seen. With that said, the hunger here actually lies with a Seahawks team that is off of a home loss to Atlanta on Monday night and is ready to take out their frustrations on a weaker foe. I know that the Seahawks barely got by the Niners in Seattle earlier this season but the 'hawks offense has been playing much better now compared to how they were playing then. Also, the Seahawks are 12-3 ATS when they are off of a non-divisional SU loss and facing a team with a losing record. That is the case here and it is a beautiful set-up with San Francisco off of a rare win. Also, the 49ers are on an 0-5 ATS run with rest. The Niners are also on a 1-7 ATS run as a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points. San Francisco also entered this season 2-13 ATS when they enter a game with a losing record and are facing an opponent off of a SU loss at home. The Seahawks come into this one angry and they impose their will here! Before beating a poor Giants team, the Niners had scored just 10 points in EACH of their three prior contests. Seattle is averaging 27.7 points per game their last 7 games! Of course the absence of Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor hurts the Seahawks defense but they still held Atlanta to 279 yards last week. Prior to the home loss to Atlanta, the 'hawks had allowed 18 points or less in 7 of their 9 games this season. This is a complete mismatch and I'll grab the highly motivated road fave that is fighting to remain in the playoff race with a tough game versus the Eagles on deck. The Seahawks know this is a must win game with what is in front of them. 10* SEATTLE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* New York Jets (+) @ Carolina Panthers @ 1 ET - The worst loss the Panthers suffered this season was to division rival New Orleans. Two months ago in Carolina the Panthers were soundly defeated by the Saints by a margin of 3 TDs. Why do I mention that here? Carolina has a trip to New Orleans on deck after facing the Jets in New York! This week's game is a horrific spot for the Panthers as they try to maintain their focus with a huge divisional revenge game on deck. The game holds extra meaning too because the Panthers are only one game behind the Saints in the division. As for the Jets they are much more desperate about today's game than any future game! New York needs a win to hang around in the playoff race. Both the Jets and Panthers are off of a bye week so their situation is equal in that regard. However, the value lies with the hungrier home dog that is fully focused on today's game. I also love the fact that the Jets, since starting the season 0-2, have gone 4-4 and the 4 losses have all come by a single possession. In other words, the Jets have been in every single game since late September and I fully expect that to be the case again here. New York is 6-1-1 ATS their last 8 games and are 5-0 ATS this season as a home dog. The Panthers are on a 1-7-1 ATS mark as an away favorite. The Jets are also 10-5 ATS after a bye week. 8* NEW YORK JETS

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Thursday 8* New York Giants (+) @ Washington Redskins @ 8:30 ET - Both teams are banged up but the Redskins have so many injuries they decided against even running a regular practice of 11 on 11 leading into this game. Washington also is a full TD favorite here. With that said, I see great line value with an underdog Giants team that is still playing for pride. New York proved last week they could still rise up as they did just that against the Chiefs and got the tight win. There will be no shortage of motivation here either as they of course detest the division rival Redskins. While one could argue that the Giants will be emotionally flat after a big upset win over Kansas City, keep in mind the Redskins also have emotional issues after letting one slip away against New Orleans last week. Washington put a lot of energy and effort into that game against the Saints and then they ended up walking away empty-handed. That is a very tough on a team and the Redskins have had disappointment as a common theme so far this season with so many blown games. The Giants ended the Skins post-season hopes last year with a late-season win in Washington. They are motivated to do it again here. Yes, it is not quite so late in the season but if the Redskins are dropped to 4-7, the glimmer of hope for the post-season certainly dims! The Giants are 3-1 ATS on grass this season and also a long-term 7-2 ATS in Thursday games. Washington is 2-6 ATS on grass and also a long-term 13-28 ATS as a home favorite in a range of 3.5 to 7 points. The Giants are also 10-1 ATS as a road dog of more than 3 points when facing a team off of a SU loss. New York is also 7-2 ATS as a divisional dog of more than 4 points. The Giants also are 10-0 ATS when they are dogs off of SU win that covered the spread by double digits! Last week's win rejuvenated the Giants while the Redskins entered this season 0-9 ATS when at home and facing an NFC opponent with a winning percentage of .249 or less. 8* NEW YORK GIANTS

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Thursday 8* OVER the total in Dallas Cowboys vs Los Angeles Chargers @ 4:30 ET - The Chargers run defense is a weakness. The Cowboys, even though dealing with injuries, have still amassed 219 yards on 48 carries the past two weeks. Dallas will take advantage of a Los Angeles run defense that has allowed 308 rushing yards on 49 carries the past two weeks. Though the Chargers point production last week was certainly helped by turnovers, the fact is that LA still amassed 429 yards of offense in the win. Look for Philip Rivers and company to take advantage of a suspect Cowboys pass defense. Prior to last week's ugly loss to the Eagles, Dallas had allowed pass completions of a combined 71.6% their three prior games. I expect a big game from Rivers plus they have run for over 145 yards in 2 of their last 3 games. At the same time, I expect the Dallas offense to respond after being held to a total of just 16 points their past two games. Yes they have some issues with the Ezekiel Elliott suspension and some injuries on offense, but these are still professionals that are ready to step it up after being embarrassed the past two weeks. That means plenty of points in this one because the absence of Sean Lee on the Cowboys defense is also creating a glaring weakness. Dallas is known for struggling on D when he is not out there and he is officially out for this game. The over is a long-term 62-39 in Los Angeles games against the NFC. Also, when the Chargers are facing an NFC East foe, the over is a fantastic 18-9. More of the same here. 8* OVER in Dallas

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Thursday 8* Detroit Lions (+) vs Minnesota Vikings @ 12:30 ET - The Vikings are off of a big win over the Rams! While the Vikings certainly have been hot, they are now traveling on a short week and facing a division rival that knows this game is critical if they have hopes of catching the Vikes in the NFC North. The Lions have also been hot with wins in 3 straight games. Detroit was only 3-4 before the 3-game winning streak but 3 of those losses were by 5 points or less and the 5-point loss to the Steelers saw the Lions outgain Pittsburgh by 90 yards! The lone ugly loss was to New Orleans but the Saints outgained Detroit by a very slim margin in that game. The point is that the Lions have been playing quite well, perhaps even better than their record shows and I feel Minnesota is very over-rated at this point. Everyone is jumping on the Vikes here because they just saw them shut down the Rams last week. However, that was the first win in this 6-game winning streak for the Vikings that has come against a team that currently has a winning record. I am not sold on a Minnesota team with Case Keenum at QB. I know he has played well recently but we all know his past. I'd much rather have Matthew Stafford on my side at QB and that is also a big part of the reason the Lions are my "side" in this one! The Lions have averaged 314.6 passing yards per game their last 5 games. The Vikings have had only one true road game in their last 5 games and that has helped them build this win streak. In true road games this season Minnesota has been held to 146 passing yards or less in 2 of 3 games. 8* DETROIT

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Monday 8* Atlanta Falcons (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 8:30 ET - Of course Seattle has revenge from last year's post-season loss to Atlanta. However, the Falcons are looking up at the Seahawks in the overall NFC standings and Atlanta is very hungry to get back to the post-season after the Super Bowl debacle versus the Patriots. A couple of keys to this play include the fact Atlanta has faced the tougher schedule and also the fact that Seattle has more key injuries. Of course at this point in the season teams are going to be banged up but the Seahawks losing Richard Sherman on defense is huge. Then, on offense, even if left tackle Duane Brown is able to play, he won't be 100% and that spells trouble against the Falcons pass rush. I am aware of the fact that Atlanta is without RB Devonta Freeman but they have decent depth in the running game and of course QB Matt Ryan and company are going to attack the Seahawks through the air. Seattle's defense has been further weakened by the loss of safety Kam Chancellor to injury. Back to the strength of schedule I noted above, Seattle's wins have included victories over the Colts, Niners, and Giants and those teams are a combined 6-24 on the season. Also, the Seahawks have beaten the Cardinals and Texans but both those teams have losing records and they faced Houston without QB Deshaun Watson. The only "impressive win" Seattle has would be that they beat the Rams but note that Los Angeles actually outgained them by 136 yards in that game! Only 2 of Atlanta's 5 wins have come against teams that currently have a losing record. Also, the Falcons losses included tough opponents like New England and Carolina. Atlanta is on a 5-1 ATS run against NFC West teams and also on a 10-5 ATS run as an underdog. Seattle is on a 34-50 ATS run when off of a win in divisional action and also on a 1-6 ATS run against NFC South teams. There is a reason this line is so low even though the Seahawks have the better record, are playing with revenge, and are at home. Don't be fooled. The road dog gets it done here. 8* ATLANTA 

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:30 ET - The Cowboys were rolling with 3 straight wins prior to last week's loss at Atlanta but it is amazing how quickly things can change in the NFL. First off, Ezekiel Elliott's suspension finally was enforced beginning last week. Then, LB Sean Lee and OL Tyron Smith got hurt. Elliott, of course, is out again this week while Lee also is listed as out due to his hamstring while Smith is listed as doubtful due to his back injury. These aren't just role players, these are KEY players for Dallas as the Cowboys have fared very poorly on defense when Lee is not out there and the absence of Smith really hurts the offensive line. Also, with no Elliott, the 'Boys run game has also been impacted greatly. Now bundle all that together and consider that the Cowboys must host an Eagles team that is rested off of a bye week, has the #1 record in the league, and that hates them with a passion. You truly have the makings of a road rout here because the Eagles won't take their foot off of the gas and they have the ability to get up big here as their offense has been so balanced. QB Carson Wentz has been phenomenal this season but defenses can't just focus on stopping him because Philly has one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL and they are loaded at running back after now also adding Jay Ajayi to the group! The Eagles did lose their last visit to Dallas but they also blasted the Cowboys by 14 in the most recent meeting. Also, prior to the loss at Dallas, the 2013, 2014, 2015 seasons saw the road team in this match-up go 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS. The home field simply hasn't meant much and also Philadelphia is 6-0 ATS their last 6 off of a bye week. Dallas has covered just 2 of their last 11 in the 2nd half of a season when they're facing a team with a winning record. The Eagles have covered 6 straight games overall and they stay hot here! 8* PHILADELPHIA

Total of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Chargers vs Buffalo Bills @ 4:05 ET - I love the fact that the Chargers have the longest current streak in the NFL for unders at 4 because the fact is that their defense is truly not that good. The result is line value here because a total that opened up in mid-40s is now all the way down to a 41 as of early gameday morning. The Bills are expected to start Nathan Peterman. Buoyed by the confidence of a scoring drive versus the Saints last week, look for him to enjoy success at LA as the Chargers run defense is the worst in the league! That means the Bills rushing offense - which is respectable to say the least - will be able to enjoy success against the Chargers and that will force LA to respect the run here. In turn, Peterman gets opportunities downfield. At the same time, should he falter and Tyrod Taylor is called upon, look for him to respond big-time after being benched. As for the Chargers and QB Philip Rivers, the veteran signal-caller is one of the best in the business. The fact he is listed as probable means he has been cleared to play (concussion) and you can bet he'll be out there carving up a Bills defense that has given up 267 passing yards per game the last 5 games. Also concerning for Buffalo fans is the run defense has been knifed through for 246 rushing yards per game the past two games! The over is 4-0 in the Bills last 4 games. The over is also 4-0 in Buffalo's last 4 games versus AFC West competition. The Chargers are 6-3 to the over as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Beautiful weather for this one too with mild temperatures and light winds and clear skies! 10* OVER the total in LA Chargers

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens (-) @ Green Bay Packers @ 1 ET - The Packers are off of a win but they certainly are not the same team without QB Aaron Rodgers. Now Green Bay has more injuries to be concerned with as RB Ty Montgomery is questionable (ribs) and RB Aaron Jones is out (MCL). Also, QB Brett Hundley is probable for today's game and I fully expect him to be ready to go but he is bothered by a hamstring injury. The Packers now host a rested Ravens team that was able to heal up some thanks to a bye last week. Baltimore is on a 7-2 ATS run when off of a bye week and their defense does rank among the top units in the NFL. Also, Baltimore's pass rush and pass protection both rank higher than the Packers in each category. Even with last week's win and cover at Chicago, Green Bay is still only 1-5 ATS the last 6 times they've been an underdog against a team with a losing record. The Ravens are currently a 2-point choice in most books. Although I would recommend grabbing the very reasonable money line if you have access to it for this one, the fact is that Baltimore is on an 8-1 ATS run when they are a favorite of more than 1 point and playing with rest! Look for a huge effort from the Ravens here off of the bye week as the offense also had a chance to work out the kinks during their bye week and the defense remains rock solid. 10* BALTIMORE

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Thursday 8* Pittsburgh Steelers (-) vs Tennessee Titans @ 8:25 ET - The Steelers have a number of edges here. With this being a short week it certainly helps to have the home field edge. Pittsburgh also has played a tougher strength of schedule here. I also am not convinced that Titans QB Mariota is in great shape just yet in terms of his injuries. The concern for Tennessee here is that the Steelers pass rush could definitely wreak havoc on him. The play in the trenches is a big key as to why I am willing to lay the full TD with Pittsburgh here. The Titans are the worst team in the league in terms of generating sacks. Tennessee also rates only in the middle of the pack in terms of pass protection. As for the Steelers, they are up near the top of the NFL for both generating QB pressure and for pass protection. Overall, the Pittsburgh defense is up among the best squads in the NFL. The Titans D ranks only in the middle of the pack. Certainly the Steelers under-performed at Indianapolis last week but they were likely peeking ahead to this match-up with a fellow division leader. Pittsburgh is on a 10-4 ATS run as a non-divisional home favorite while Tennessee is on a 7-15 ATS run as a road dog. The Titans are coached by Mike Mularkey and, as a dog off of a SU win he has a 2-9 ATS record versus a non-division opponent. As a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points the Steelers have excelled historically as they have gone 63-17 SU and 50-30 (63%) ATS! 8* PITTSBURGH

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Monday 8* Carolina Panthers (-) vs Miami Dolphins @ 8:30 ET - The Dolphins did have a recent road win (at Atlanta) when the Falcons were clearly caught looking ahead to their Super Bowl rematch game with the Patriots. Other than that win (which was attributable to Atlanta's lookahead), Miami has struggled badly on the road. In the Dolphins other 3 games played away from home since late September, they lost all 3 by a combined score of 60 to 6 - an average margin of defeat of 18 points per game. They lost 20-6 to the Jets in New York, 20-0 to the Saints in London, and 40-0 to the Ravens in Baltimore. Suffice to say the Dolphins have been consistent away from home and it certainly has been a negative consistency. Both teams have played many weeks in a row but the Panthers do have their bye week on deck while the Dolphins lost their bye week do to the hurricane canceling their season opener this year. With that said, even though Carolina is off of a big win over division rival Atlanta, the Panthers are going to go hard here in their final game before the bye week. Carolina's most recent primetime game was that Thursday night loss versus the front-running Eagles last month. They now take on a much lesser foe in primetime action and they look to atone for that defeat. The Panthers are also certainly well aware of the fact that both the Saints and Falcons won yesterday so every win that Carolina can get right now is critical to stay in the hunt in the NFC South. The Panthers have home field edge here and they are the #1 defense in the league taking on the league's worst offense. The Dolphins will find points tough to come by in this one and Carolina, though not an offensive juggernaut, has scored 17 or more in 5 of their last 6 games. The Dolphins are averaging 2 (just TWO) points per game in their last 3 games away from home. That said, the Panthers, thanks to their tremendous defense, shouldn't have to score much to get the cover here even though this is a big number. Look for Carolina to win this by double digits. Remember that the Dolphins had a VERY fortunate ATS push last week when they scored a TD and a 2 point conversion VERY late to lose by just 3 as a 3-point dog versus Oakland. The Panthers are 10-3 ATS off of a divisional game and 12-4 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points. Look for the Dolphins to drop to 5-9 ATS as a road dog of 7.5 to 10 points. 8* CAROLINA

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* OVER the total in Denver vs New England @ 8:30 ET - This total keeps moving down and is now as low as a 44 as of early Sunday morning. I know the Broncos have a good defense overall and I know their yardage allowed stats haven't been as bad the past two weeks as the points allowed. However, when you give Patriots coach Bill Belichick an extra week to prepare and when he gets to watch how Denver allowed 51 points at Philly last week, you better believe he's got some good "wrinkles" in his offensive game plan tonight. The Patriots come into this game rested and ready and their offense has produced 302 passing yards per game on the season! The Pats are averaging 444 yards of offense per game on the road this season. The weather will be clear and cool in Denver this evening with light winds. A perfect night for offenses to fully execute their playbooks. The Broncos Brock Osweiler will be better in his 2nd start back as the game at Philly was his first start. The Denver offense has been hurt by turnovers and that has caused a lack of points. The Broncos are actually averaging 231.5 passing yards per game their lat 4 games. Denver also has run for at least 140 yards in 3 of their 4 home games this season. The offensive line lost Menelik Watson to injury this week but they also have other offensive linemen on the injury report that are now listed as probable and ready to go this week. The Broncos have been challenged and I expect their offense to respond here after last week's blowout loss. However, I don't foresee the Denver D as being able to slow down Tom Brady and company in this one! The over is 3-1 when the Patriots are off of a bye week. The over is 111-66 when the Broncos are playing a team with a winning record, 39-16 in home games with a posted total between 42.5 and 45 points, and 5-1 as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points! 8* OVER the total in Denver

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons (-) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - The Ezekiel Elliott situation was a huge distraction for the Cowboys but at least he ended up playing. Now, this week, it's different! It looks like the situation finally is resolved and, not only is he not playing this week, he is likely out until Christmas Eve. This is casting a dark cloud over the Cowboys right now and the last thing they need is to be on the road and facing the defending NFC champs who are angry as they come off of a stretch that has seen them lose 4 of their last 5. The Falcons are on an 0-5 ATS run but this is a great spot to back them. They ougained the Panthers in their loss at Carolina last week and they have plenty of confidence when it comes to facing the Cowboys. In their last meeting, in Dallas, the Cowboys were up 28-17 at the half but the Falcons won the 2nd half 22-0. Between October 15th and November 26th, this is Atlanta's one and only home game! In other words, you can absolutely bank on a strong effort from the Falcons here especially since they are off of rare back to back losses in their two most recent home games (even though Atlanta ougained the opposition in each game). The Cowboys are on an 0-5 ATS run against NFC South teams the past two seasons. Dallas is also on a 9-18 ATS run in games played on turf. The Falcons are 4-1 SU against NFC East opposition the past two years and laying just 3 here is a great value! The Cowboys running game will be hurt by Elliott's absence and the Falcons have the much better passing game! 10* ATLANTA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Cincinnati Bengals (+) vs Tennessee Titans @ 1 ET - The Titans have won 3 straight games but they've been outgained in each of the last two games (each of those being wins by just 3 points apiece). Also, Tennessee is off of a tough game versus the physical Ravens and has another tough match-up (with the physical Steelers) on deck. There is no sugarcoating anything about Cincinnati. The Bengals have not been playing well and they've failed to cover 3 straight games. However, Cincy had won 3 of 4 prior to the loss at Jacksonville last week and that still gives them enough confidence to bounce back after the loss to the Jaguars and I feel they will do just that. The Bengals only scored 7 points in last week's defeat at the hand of the Jags and Cincinnati is 6-1 (86%) ATS when off of a game where they were held to less than 10 points. Tennessee, entering this season, was 1-10 ATS when facing a non-divisional opponent off of a SU loss by more than 10 points. That system fits here as the Bengals were crushed by 16 points last week. The Titans upcoming game against the Steelers is on Thursday night and that is also significant here as Tennessee knows they have a short week to prepare for another physical, tough match-up. I would not be surprised to see the Titans overlook the Bengals given this situation and, in fact, Tennessee is 0-8 ATS in their game before a Thursday game! 8* CINCINNATI

Top Play Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Los Angeles Chargers (+) @ Jacksonville Jaguars @ 1 ET - The Jaguars are off of back to back wins but they faced a pair of teams (Bengals and Colts) that are a combined 6-11 this season. I know the Chargers also have a similar unimpressive record but Los Angeles comes into this game off of their bye week and they had won 3 of 4 games heading into their bye. Also, the Chargers first 4 losses this season featured 3 by a field goal or less! Another big difference in terms of the challenge the Jaguars will face today is at the QB position. They faced Indianapolis without Luck and they faced a Cincinnati team that has been having major issues at the signal-caller position. Now they face a Rivers-led Chargers team that has a much better passing attack than those two teams. I am aware that Jacksonville's pass defense has been rock solid this season but Rivers and company come back from the bye week with fresh legs and ready to attack. The Chargers are averaging 244 passing yards per game and are 6-0 SU and ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Jags. Jacksonville is an ugly 4-14 ATS when they are a home favorite against a non-divisional foe. The Chargers are on a 6-2 ATS run when on the road and facing a non-divisional opponent with a winning percentage above .600 and that system fits here. Also, the Jaguars are 0-10 ATS when they are at home, playing with revenge, and off of a double digit ATS cover. That system fits here as well! 10* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Monday 8* Seattle Seahawks (-) @ Arizona Cardinals @ 8:25 ET - The Seahawks are fired up after a home loss to the Redskins. Seattle did outgain Washington by 193 yards in the defeat! Arizona is off of a win but it came against the 0-9 Niners. In fact, two of the Cardinals 4 wins have come against win-less San Francisco and the other two wins came against the 2-6 Buccaneers and 3-6 Colts! Seattle is 6-2 ATS in games played between weeks 10 and 13 the past two seasons combined. Arizona is on a 3-7 ATS run as an underdog and 3-13 ATS run in games against teams with a winning record. The Cardinals are also on an 0-10 ATS run when they are off of a game where they allowed 10 points or less! Arizona is also 0-6 ATS in Thursday games versus teams with a winning record. Seattle is on a 7-0 ATS run in Thursday games. That means we have a combined edge of 23-0 ATS favoring the revenge-minded Seahawks in this one. They lost at home to the Cardinals in their most recent meeting on Christmas Eve last year. Time for payback Thursday. 8* SEATTLE

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach Monday NFL 10* Top Play Detroit Lions (-) @ Green Bay Packers @ 8:30 ET - First off I just want to note that the Lions are such a small favorite here that I would recommend taking the money line if you have access to it. Now, onto the analysis: The Packers have won 25 of the last 26 meetings between these division rivals at Lambeau Field. That said, how can the Lions possibly be favored here? Think about that for a second before you answer! Do you think the odds makers are stupid? The fact is that Detroit with Matthew Stafford at QB is a much better offense than Green Bay with Brett Hundley at QB. Hundley was simply disastrous in his first start other than his running ability (which you can bet the Lions will be focused on here). Hundley did not look comfortable in the pocket, had poor timing with his throws, held on the ball too long (including one time on a strip-sack where GB got the ball back) and he completed only 12 of 25 passes for 79 yards! As for the Lions, they come in with Stafford having thrown for an average of 346 yards per game their past two games. That included a game at New Orleans and yes that is the same team that the Packers just hosted and the Saints outgained the Packers by over 200 yards! Green Bay is simply a much different team without Aaron Rodgers at QB. This is not just a minor drop-off, this is a major drop-off in terms of the 2nd man up at QB for GB. By the way, that lone win that the Lions have had at Lambeau over the past quarter-century did come just 2 years ago so that does help the confidence factor here.  I know the Packers are off of a bye week and that allowed extra time to work with Hundley but his pocket presence is a major concern and Green Bay is one of the worst teams in the league in terms of pass protection. In terms of trending, the Lions are 6-1 SU and ATS in November games the past two seasons while the Packers are a surprising 2-7 SU and ATS the past two years in November games. Detroit's weakness on defense is the pass D but Hundley won't be able to take advantage and the Lions are very solid against the run (ranked 7th in the league). The point is that Green Bay's game-plan tonight is likely to be very run-dominated in their offensive attack tonight and that plays right into the hands of the Lions here! Also, look for Stafford to carve up a Packers pass defense that has allowed 73.5% pass completions their last 6 games with average passing yards given up of 237.8 per game. 10* DETROIT

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Oakland Raiders (-) @ Miami Dolphins @ 8:30 ET - This is the time of the season where it generally pays to invest in teams that have under-achieved but are still poised to make a move. The Raiders certainly fit the bill as that type of team. Oakland already beat Kansas City this season and they still have another game against the Chiefs coming up so the Raiders are still very much "alive" in the AFC West. While it looks like Oakland just got blasted at Buffalo last week, the Raiders actually outgained the Bills but were done in by turnovers in the 34-14 loss. Oakland has a bye week on deck so they're certainly going to go "all out" here and I'll take Derek Carr over Jay Cutler any day of the week! Yes, Cutler is due back for the Dolphins this week but the QB has aveaged 136 passing yards in his last 4 starts. Carr worked out the kinks in his first start back from injury when he faced the Chiefs a few weeks ago. Since that start he has had two more starts and has averaged 365 passing yards per game! You can see that's nearly triple what Cutler has produced. The Dolphins have the worst offense in the NFL and they simply won't be able to keep up here. I know Miami has a solid defense but the Raiders defense, for the most part, has played well this season. They had 2 sub-par efforts - against the Redskins and Chiefs - but the Dolphins offense is not comparable to those two offenses. That said, in Oakland's other 6 games this season they have allowed an average of just 326 yards per game! The Dolphins poor performance on offense last week was the 4th time in their last 6 games that they have been held to 225 yards or less of TOTAL offense! The Raiders are 5-2 ATS in road games with a posted total between 42.5 and 45 points. The Dolphins are 1-7 ATS in home games with a posted total between 42.5 and 45 points. 8* OAKLAND

Top Play Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Washington Redskins (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 4:05 ET - The Redskins are only 3-4 on the season but 2 of the losses came to the NFL's hottest team, the Eagles. The other two losses came against the Cowboys and Chiefs. That means the 3 teams the Skins have lost to have a combined record of 16-6. As for the Seahawks, yes they are an impressive 5-2 on the season but 3 of the 5 wins came against the Niners, Giants, and Colts. Those teams are a combined 3-20 this season! Seattle's other two wins came against the Texans and Rams. Houston actually has a losing record this season and the Rams only lost to the Seahawks because of 5 turnovers. LA actually outgained Seattle by 134 yards in that game! The point is that this match-up is set up perfectly this week in terms of value because, right now, the Redskins are vastly under-valued and the Seahawks are greatly over-valued. Seattle gave up over 500 yards to Houston last week. This is not the same Seahawks teams of their dominant years. Yes they are 5-2 this season but the schedule has been kind to them and now they face a much tougher test. The Redskins know that if they're going to make a push it must start now. Washington lost to Seattle in Jay Gruden's first season here as head coach, in 2014. Payback is on order here and the Redskins are 18-8 ATS when on rest of 6 days or less between games. Seahawks off of the emotional late fourth quarter win over the Texans last week where they expended a ton of energy in a valiant effort. In front of them, Seattle also has a short week to prepare for a divisional match-up Thursday at Arizona. 10* WASHINGTON

Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* New York Giants (+) vs Los Angeles Rams @ 1 ET - The Giants are coming off of their bye week and, prior to that, they did lose to Seattle as a 4 point home dog. However, previous to that defeat, the Giants were on a 5-0 ATS run as a home dog of 4 points or more. Now, fresh off of a bye week and hosting a Rams team that, though also off of a bye week, is off of a big divisional win over the Cardinals in London, New York is in a good situational spot here. Los Angeles is 2-5 SU (and ATS) when off of a win over a division rival. While it is true that the Giants already have 6 losses on the season, they haven't thrown in the towel yet! They have some injury issues but the bye week certainly did them some good and the Giants know that, with a win, it means every potential wild card team in the NFC would already have at least 3 losses. Also, New York has another winnable game (facing win-less San Francisco) on deck. So don't count out the Giants just yet. They've gone 6-2 ATS in November games the past two seasons and they are looking to make a push here in the 2nd half of their season. This is a perfect spot to back them against an over-confident Rams team that is likely to overlook them. 8* NEW YORK GIANTS 

Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Baltimore Ravens (+) @ Tennessee Titans @ 1 ET - The Ravens Joe Flacco is now listed as probable for this game and Baltimore's spirits have also been bolstered by the 40-0 win over Miami last week. Statistically that win was not as impressive as the final score but the fact is that Ravens defense certainly answered the call. Keep in mind, Baltimore has now allowed an average of only 285 yards per game their last 4 games. Even though the Titans are off of their bye week, the Ravens game last week was on Thursday so they're well-rested too. Also, the concern for Tennessee here is that they are facing a tough defense and the Titans offense has been rather anemic of late. Yes, Tennessee had a big game against Indianapolis but the Colts are one of the worst defensive teams in the league. Other than destroying Indy, the Titans other 3 games since September went into the books have seen Tennessee average only 217.3 yards of total offense per game! The Titans are on a 2-7 ATS run in November games and also Tennessee is on a 1-5 ATS run as a favorite in a range of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Baltimore is 4-2 ATS against AFC teams this season and 6-2 SU in November games the past two years. More of the same here! 8* BALTIMORE

Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+) @ New Orleans Saints @ 1 ET - At first glance this looks like a mismatch as the 2-5 Bucs are on the road at the 5-2 Saints. New Orleans has won 5 straight games (both SU and ATS) while Tampa has lost 4 straight games (SU) and is on a win-less (0-5-1) stretch ATS! As the saying goes...on any given Sunday...and in this case it looks like an upset could be in the offing here! The Saints defense looks much improved but, keep in mind, 3 of their last 4 games have been against offensively-challenged opponents! Miami and Chicago are two of the worst teams in the league on offense. Also New Orleans faced the Packers after Aaron Rodgers was hurt. Everyone knows Green Bay's offense is hurting badly without Rodgers! So what has the Saints D done in their other 4 games this season? They've allowed 29 points per game and 415 yards per game! In other words, I am not sold on the Saints D just yet! Now that New Orleans D faces a Bucs passing attack that is averaging nearly 300 yards passing per game. Certainly Tampa Bay's defense has struggled at times this season but turnovers by the offense certainly has put the Bucs D in bad spots at times. The fact is that the Saints have forced opponents into more than 1 turnover in just 2 of their 7 games. I don't expect the Buccaneers to be impacted by turnovers here. In fact they may end up on the right side of the turnover battle here as they've forced 6 turnovers in their last 4 games and the Saints have turned the ball over 7 times in their last 3 games. Each of the last 6 meetings have been decided by no more than 7 points and we're getting great line value with this one at 7 points. Also, the Bucs lost 17-3 versus Carolina last week and that is noteworthy here as TB is 11-0 ATS as a dog of more than 4 points when they're off of a games where they were held under 10 points! Also, Saints head coach Sean Payton has a 2-13 ATS mark when favored off of a non-divisional game and now facing a divisional opponent playing with revenge. The Bucs are looking at avenge December's loss at New Orleans! Also, the Saints are an ugly 2-16 ATS when they are at home in divisional action and facing an opponent that lost their prior game by double digits compared to the spread. That system is also in play here and I look for the Buccaneers to be in this one all the way and to either spring the upset or lose by 6 or less. 10* TAMPA BAY

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Thursday 8* OVER the total in New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills @ 8:25 PM ET - The calendar says November but the weather certainly won't feel like it in East Rutherford, New Jersey Thursday. After a day where high temperatures get up into the 70s, it will be a mild evening with light winds and no precipitation. That means both offenses can have an "open playbook" here with no limitations. I realize the Bills don't give up a lot of points and certainly they deserve credit for creating a lot of turnovers too. However, the numbers don't lie and Buffalo has allowed over 300 yards passing in 3 straight games. In fact, the average passing yardage the Bills have allowed is 338 yards per game in those 3 games. The Jets are on a 5-0-1 ATS run at the betting window but, like Buffalo, they've been quite fortunate of late as well. New York has allowed an average of 271.5 passing yards per game in their last 4 games and yet only 2 of the 4 games went over the total. The Bills have completed 40 of 60 passes and scored an average of 32 points per game the last 2 weeks. The Jets have completed 74 of 107 passes for an average of 250 passing yards per game their last 3 games and you can see why I am expecting both teams to have success through the air in this one. Also, the over is 10-2 in Bills games played in weeks 5 through 9. Buffalo also is 14-4 to the over when they are the favorite in a match-up. Included in that is a perfect 3-0 over record when they are road fave of 3 points or less. The Jets are 4-1 to the over as a home dog of 3 points or less. 8* OVER the total in New York Jets

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach Monday NFL 10* Top Play Denver Broncos (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:30 ET - Turnovers hurt badly in football and the Broncos have turned the ball over 3 times in each of their past two games. Keep in mind, Denver had started the season with a 3-1 record. Then they lost the winless Giants even though they outgained New York by a margin of 412 to 266. That was followed by a shutout loss (first for Broncos in 25 years) at Los Angeles last week against the Chargers. In that game Denver did outgain LA but they lost by 21 at the scoreboard. The point is that we're getting some solid line value this week with the Broncos at Kansas City because their results the past two weeks don't tell the full story. The fact is that Denver's defense ranks near the very top of the NFL while Kansas City's defense ranks near the very bottom of the NFL. Also, while the Chiefs seem to rate a huge edge on offense, a lot of the Broncos problems have been related to turnovers and missed opportunities. The way Denver has moved the ball ranks them in the middle of the league in terms of production on offense. The Broncos have won 7 of their last past 10 meetings with the Chiefs. Also, Kansas City enters this game off of a very tough last minute loss at Oakland last week. Not only are those defeats the toughest type to bounce back from, note that the Broncos are 12-2 ATS in divisional games when they are facing an opponent that is off of a loss (SU and ATS) in divisional action. That system fits here as the Chiefs were a 3-point fave at Oakland last week and lost outright to the Raiders. Also, KC is 1-9 ATS in their game after facing the Raiders. Last but certainly not least, the Chiefs are 1-8 ATS as a home fave in divisional action when they are off of a loss (SU and ATS) and facing an opponent off of a SU loss. I love the systems in play here in addition to the fact that I get an under-valued defense-minded divisional dog that is ready to explode with a strong game under the lights on Monday Night Football. 10* DENVER

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 8* Pittsburgh Steelers (-) @ Detroit Lions @ 8:30 ET - At first glance this seems like a tough spot for the Steelers. The Lions are coming in rested off of their bye week and Pittsburgh is off of back to back big wins as they knocked off the previously undefeated Chiefs two weeks ago and then the division rival Bengals last week. However, the Steelers are the play here for numerous reasons. One is that Pittsburgh already had their "wake up call" three weeks ago when they got embarrassed on their home filed by the Jaguars. The Steelers took it to heart and they've used that as their motivation going forward. Also, Pittsburgh does have their bye week on deck and when they return from the bye they face a bad Colts team. In other words, there is no doubt the Steelers are fully focused on the Lions in a big primetime game as Pittsburgh knows they can rest later. They certainly won't let up tonight. Keep in mind, the Steelers are the #1 defense in the league and that is thanks in large part to their success defending the pass. Everyone knows the NFL is now a passing-dominated league and a key to success is stopping the pass. The Lions, unlike the Steelers, rank in the bottom third of the league in pass defense. Additionally, Detroit is ranked near the bottom of the league in terms of offensive production while the Steelers are in the top third of the league. The Lions have given up 39.5 points per game in their past two games. Detroit's production on offense at home has also dropped with each game as the yardage has gone from 367 to 324 to 242. The Lions also are 1-12 ATS when they are off of a game where they scored more than 35 points. Also, when Detroit is off of a game where they allowed more than 35 points and they're now facing a team that is off of a SU win, the Lions have gone 1-10 ATS! On deck for the Lions is a Monday night game at Green Bay and Detroit is on a 1-6 ATS run in their game before facing the Packers. Also, the Lions are just 1-4 ATS the game before a MNF game. The Steelers are 4-1 in games where they are a road favorite of 3 points or less and they are offering great value as a small fave here as they are fired up about staying hot and earning one more win before their bye week! 8* PITTSBURGH

NFC East Game of the Year - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 10* Top Play Washington Redskins (+) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - I am well aware of the fact that the road team has covered 6 straight in this series. However, the Redskins have played the tougher schedule this season and the Cowboys are getting way too much respect as this line has continued to move in their direction all week long and now through early gameday morning as well. The fact is that Dallas has faced only 2 winning teams this season while the Redskins have faced only 2 losing teams so far this year. Also, the Cowboys are off of a win but have yet to win back to back games this season while the Redskins are off of a loss and have yet to lose back to back games this season. Also, the Cowboys did win both games over the Redskins last season. This is a huge rivalry and Washington is hungry for payback here. The Cowboys are off of a big win over the 49ers but of course San Francisco is a winless team this season. In fact, the 3 wins Dallas has this season have come against teams that are combined 4-17 on the season! The Redskins have played a tough schedule and 2 of their losses have been to the 6-1 Eagles. Also, Washington did beat Oakland by 17 and the Raiders are better than their record would indicate. Also, the Redskins knocked off a Rams team that is 5-2. Most all of you probably also remember the Washington primetime game at Kansas City where the Redskins clearly looked like the better team before suffering a tight loss that was much closer than what the final score indicates. That was a bad beat for Skins backers and Washington clearly could have won the game outright too! The situation here is also set up well even though the Redskins are on a short week. The Cowboys are 2-11 ATS in divisional games when they are a road favorite off of a straight-up win by a double digit margin and now facing an opponent who is off of a straight-up loss! The Redskins are a perfect 6-0 ATS when they are a home dog and facing an opponent with a winning percentage of .401 or more. The Skins already knocked off the 2-0 Raiders with that same system in play earlier this season. 10* WASHINGTON

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 8* Carolina Panthers (+) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 1 ET - The Panthers are off of back to back losses but the first one came to the hottest team in the league, Eagles, and the second one saw Carolina lose despite holding the Bears to 153 yards of offense! Sometimes "fluke" games do happen and Chicago beat the Panthers 17-3 despite Carolina winning the yardage battle by 140 yards over the Bears. Suffice to say, the Panthers are fired up after back to back losses and they're ready to take out their frustration on a division rival. While Carolina is allowing only 261.9 yards per game (one of the top defenses in the league), Tampa Bay is allowing 408.5 yards per game and ranks as one of the worst defenses in the league. The Panthers are on a 7-2 ATS run as an underdog. The Buccaneers are on a 2-9 ATS run as a home favorite. Also, the Panthers are 6-2 SU and ATS in their last 8 meetings with Tampa Bay. 8* CAROLINA

Total of the Week - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 10* Top Play OVER the total in New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers @ 1 ET - The Chargers shutout the Broncos last week but now they go from facing one the weaker offenses in the league at home to facing one of the best offenses in the league on the road. A key here for me was weather which is why I had to wait until gameday morning to release my plays. It looks good as rain and some wind are moving into the Foxboro area but that shouldn't take place until after this game is already in the books. With that said, both offenses should have the full playbooks available to them and the Patriots are averaging 300 passing yards per game! The problem for New England is they allow 310 passing yards per game and they now face a Chargers passing attack that has only truly been stopped by Denver this season. That said, the Broncos are one of the top defenses in the league. In LA's 5 games not played against Denver this season, the Chargers have averaged 282.4 passing yards per game. Now facing a "suspect" Pats defense, you can see why I am expecting Los Angeles to match New England score for score in this one. The over is 3-1 in Patriots home games this season and 2-1 in Chargers road games this year. As a road dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, LA is 8-2 to the over! In a home game with a posted total between 45.5 and 49 points, the Patriots are 7-1 to the over! 10* OVER the total in New England

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach Thursday NFL 8* Baltimore Ravens (-) vs Miami Dolphins @ 8:25 ET - The Ravens are banged up (particularly) on offense but they also are fired up and have enough healthy bodies here to get the job done against the Dolphins. Baltimore is out to prove themselves at home in a primetime game and this is when teams playing with a chip on their shoulder tend to be at their best. Look for Joe Flacco and company to surprise people tonight. Though it has been a frustrating season for the Ravens QB thusfar, Flacco has been better at home and only 3 of the 4 "home" games for Baltimore have been true home games as one was played in London. Baltimore has scored 24 points in 2 of their 3 games played in Baltimore and that type of production should be enough to take down the Dolphins. Sure Miami looked better after Matt Moore took over at QB for the injured Matt Moore last week but the Dolphins were facing a Jets team that was downtrodden after a tight loss to the Patriots the week before. Now Miami faces an angry Ravens team off of back to back losses. Baltimore is 6-0 ATS at home when they are off of back to back losses (both SU and ATS) and they're hosting a team with a winning percentage under .750 - that system is fully in play here. The Dolphins are on a 1-5 ATS run in games against the AFC North Division. 8* BALTIMORE

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Washington Redskins @ 8:30 ET - The Eagles aren't getting very much respect here. Quick...name all the teams in the NFL with 1 loss or less...the answer is one word...Eagles. No one is undefeated as you know and Philadelphia is the last remaining 1 loss team even though 4 of their first 6 games have been on the road. The Eagles already beat the Redskins in their season opener in Washington and now they get them at home. Certainly I have plenty of respect for the Redskins, a quality division rival of Philadelphia. However, the Eagles went 5-1 last season when Lane Johnson was in the lineup. A top offensive tackle of the Eagles who was suspended for 10 games last season, Johnson makes a big difference when he is in there. Johnson has been dealing with a concussion but is listed as probable for this game and that's great news for Philly. Not only did they go 5-1 with him in the lineup last season they are already 5-1 this season and they know this game is huge in terms of creating significant gap at the top of the NFC East. The Redskins had owned the Eagles in recent seasons but Philly proved they already have turned the tables on this season with that win back in week 1. There is a certain "aura" around the Eagles that this is their year. They've played extremely well on both sides of the ball and are well rested here. Remember that Philly played on Thursday of last week in their impressive win over the Panthers. The Redskins are off of a Sunday game and did not impress in a rather tight win over the winless 49'ers. The Eagles are on a long-term 9-1 ATS run on MNF when they are off of a SU win. Also, under coach Doug Pederson, Philadelphia is 6-0 ATS in home games where they are facing a team off of a SU win! That streak continued when they blasted Arizona two weeks ago here in Philly. The Redskins are a long-term 10-21 ATS in Monday night games and that includes 0-4 ATS in MNF the last 3 seasons combined. So we have a perfect 10-0 ATS spot favoring the Eagles in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* UNDER the total in New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons @ 8:30 ET - The Falcons have been waiting for this one and they bring a solid defense into the rematch. I know Atlanta is off of back to back home losses but they have allowed just 312.4 yards per game this season and that ranks them as one of the top defenses in the NFC. The problem for the Falcons has been their offense. Atlanta has been held to just 17 points in each of their past two games. Even though the Patriots defense ranks dead last in the NFL this season, you know that coach Bill Belichick is going to have some special play-calling put together for this game. Even though Atlanta scored 28 points in the Super Bowl, the Falcons were held to just 28 points. The key in that game was the late rally for New England of course. It was truly a "miracle rally" that led to the Pats evening it up late and then winning in OT in a classic finish. In any event, that has resulted in line value here because this O/U has been driven higher all week long. I feel the Falcons defense is being under-rated here and I look for this game to surprise a lot of people because the Atlanta's offensive struggles could continue against a Belichick-coached team. The Falcons were up 17-0 in last week's loss to Miami and then started looking ahead to this game and allowed the Dolphins to rattle off 20 straight points for the upset win. The angry Falcons will play the full sixty here but this one looks like a war that will find points harder to come by than what the public is expecting. Look for each team to record their 3rd straight under as this one falls short of the total. Also, Atlanta is 5-1 to the under when they enter a game off of 2 or more consecutive SU losses. The Patriots are 23-15 to the under as a home fave of 3 points or less. 8* UNDER the total in New England

Golden Ticket - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Cincinnati Bengals (+) @ Pittsburgh Steelers @ 4:25 ET - The Steelers are off of their upset victory over the Chiefs at Kansas City last week while the Bengals were resting thanks to a bye week. I know Pittsburgh is known for being tough at home through the years but they've been an "up and down" team this season and have yet to cover 2 straight games. On the other side of the equation, the Bengals come into this game riding a 3-game ATS win streak and seeking revenge. Pittsburgh knocked Cincinnati out of the playoffs 2 years ago. Since then the Steelers also have won each of the last two regular season meetings. This is their first meeting this season however and the road team has covered 4 of the last 5 meetings. The Bengals also are on a 6-1 ATS run in road games with a posted total between 38.5 and 42 points. Specific to divisional road games, Cincy has covered 7 of their last 10. In the Steelers last 7 home games in regular season home games, they are just 2-5 ATS. Look for the Bengals momentum to continue here as, whether or not they get the upset and get their revenge, I do expect them to make it 4 in a row ATS with another cover here. 10* CINCINNATI

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos @ 4:25 ET - The Broncos scored just 10 points in their home loss to the Giants on Sunday Night but that was a ridiculous statistical anomaly. Denver actually totaled 412 yards in that game but they were done in by 3 turnovers and 2 missed field goals. The Broncos certainly should bounce back here against a Chargers defense that ranks last in the league against the run. Of course once a team can establish the run game against an opponent it really opens things up for the passing game and Denver had 366 passing yards against the Giants last week. The weather will be hot in Los Angeles today and the clear and very warm conditions will be conducive to a strong showing on offense from both teams. Keep in mind, the Chargers do have one of the top passing attacks in the league and, being division rivals with Denver, Philip Rivers and company are certainly very familiar with what the Broncos defense brings to the table. The Chargers have not scored less than 19 points in any of the past 4 meetings. Couple that with the fact that is LA is riding the momentum of back to back wins and has averaged 23 points per game in their last 3 games and I like my chances with a strong performance from the Chargers offense. The Bolts are 8-4 to the over in October games. In weeks 5 through 9 of a season, Denver is 65-40 to the over. Also, this O/U moving lower has opened up some solid value and the Broncos are 5-2 to the over in road games with a posted total in a range of 38.5 to 42 points. 10* OVER the total in LA Chargers

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* New Orleans Saints (-) @ Green Bay Packers @ 1 ET - There is a good chance of rain at this game but the winds are not expected to be significant and the rain is expected to just be light showers rather than heavy rain. That is significant here because with the Saints having Drew Brees and the Packers being without Aaron Rodgers, New Orleans holds a huge edge in terms of offensive potency in this one! Green Bay QB Brett Hundley had a 1-3 ratio last week and the Packers offense totaled only 227 yards last week. Surprisingly, even when Rodgers has been playing for Green Bay, the Packers offense has struggled overall this season. The Pack ranks 21st in the league on offense while New Orleans ranks 7th. The Saints defense also has come on strong and have forced 9 turnovers their last 3 games. I know that New Orleans gave up big points to Detroit last week but much of that happened after they had built up a huge lead and then "let up" in the game. Green Bay is looking ahead to their bye week and a chance to get healthy and to do a little more with their QB situation. As for the Saints, they're looking to 4 straight wins and I feel they will do just that and make it 4 straight covers also! New Orleans is 10-1 ATS when they are on the road after scoring more than 40 points. The Saints are also 9-0 ATS when facing an NFC opponent with a winning percentage above .666 as is the case with the 4-2 Packers. New Orleans is also 5-0 ATS in road games against NFC North teams. The Packers are 0-6 ATS when off a SU loss by a double digit margin in divisional action (Vikings last week) and now facing a non-divisional opponent in the current week. That means the Saints are supported by systems that are a combined 30-1 ATS including a triple perfect 20-0 ATS when combining those 3 perfect ATS stats! I'll take it! 8* NEW ORLEANS

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL 8* OVER the total in Oakland Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:25 ET - Kansas City is scoring an average of 36 points per game on the road this season but their defense has allowed 27 points or more in 2 of their 3 road games. The over is 2-1 in Chiefs road games and also 2-1 in Raiders home games. The only under that Oakland has had at home was last week but that was the first game back for Raiders QB Derek Carr. Now that he has shaken off the rust he'll be much sharper here. Both teams rank toward the bottom of the league on defense. Raiders are 14-4 to the over in their last 18 home games. 8* OVER the total in Oakland

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach Monday NFL 8* OVER the total in Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts @ 8:30 ET - The Colts offense got a boost with a big game from Jacoby Brissett last week and that gives them extra confidence heading into this match-up with the Titans. Of course the fact that Indianapolis has won all 10 meetings with Tennessee since Chuck Pagano took over at head coach also bodes well for the Colts here. Indianapolis has averaged 28.9 points per game in those 10 victories. As for the Titans, their offense has been miserable the last two weeks but they lost Marcus Mariota after throwing just 10 passes in their game at Houston two weeks ago. Tennessee was then without Mariota in their next game, last week at Miami. Now, with Mariota back, the Titans offense should enjoy much better production. Tennessee had averaged 28.7 points per game in their first 3 games before Mariota got hurt. Both of these teams allow a ton of points so don't look for many defensive stops in this one! The Titans are allowing 28.4 points per game and the Colts are allowing 31.8 points per game this season. When the Colts are a road dog of 7.5 to 10 points, the over is on a 19-6 run! In games played on grass, Indianapolis is on a 12-1 run to the over and it will be beautiful autumn weather tonight in Nashville so no limitations for the offenses in this one. The Titans are 10-3 to the over as a favorite including a perfect 4-0 to the over when they are a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Look for a shootout in this one! 8* OVER the total in Tennessee

Total of the Week - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 10* Top Play OVER the total in Denver Broncos vs New York Giants @ 8:30 ET - The Broncos are off of a 16-10 defensive-minded win over the Raiders two weeks ago. Believe it or not, that was their first under this season as Denver had been on a 3-0 run to the over. Speaking of a run like that, the Giants enter this game on a 3-0 run to the over. Yes, New York is dealing with a ton of injuries but those have impacted their defense too and they continue to blow leads late in games. That said, the fact this total has made a downward move is leading to some exceptional line value in a game that may surprise some people. It will be perfect weather in Denver this evening with clear skies and pleasantly cool temperatures. The Broncos, prior to their bye week, are off of a divisional win over the Raiders and Denver has back to back divisional games on deck versus the Chargers and Chiefs. That said, don't be surprised if the Broncos defense slips up some tonight. It's easy to underestimate a wounded appointment and the Giants offense comes in with a chip on their shoulder and with a number of guys looking to "prove themselves" on national TV tonight. The Giants have averaged 23 points per game in their last 3 games. The Broncos, prior to shutting down the Raiders, had allowed 21.3 points per game on the season. I just think this total is very low when you consider these numbers. The Broncos offense, prior to putting up just 16 points in back to back games, had averaged 33 points a game in their first two games. The over is a long-term insane 23-6 (79%) in Broncos games versus the NFC East! The Giants are 7-2 to the over when they enter a game on a streak of 2 or more SU losses. This one will surprise some people. The Giants defense (26 ppg L4 games) has really slipped and Denver's defense is going to underestimate the New York offense since the G-men are without Odell Beckham, Jr as well as others! 10* OVER the total in Denver

Game of the Month - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 4:25 ET - The Chiefs magical luck on the field and at the betting window continues. Not only is Kansas City the only undefeated team this season - 5-0 SU mark - they also are the only 5-0 ATS team as well. Of course they deserve credit for achieving this mark but taking a look back at their games raises some interesting doubt. They rallied late at New England (deceiving final score) and KC then had to rally again versus the Eagles (Philadelphia looked like the better team for much of that game). Kansas City then beat a Chargers team that is only 1-4 on the season and that preceded the absolutely ridiculous miracle cover versus the Redskins (another game where Chiefs opponent looked like the better team for much of the game). Now, after a win at Houston (but allowing 34 points), I expect Kansas City's luck has run out. They're running into an angry Steelers team that is off of an embarrassing home loss to Jacksonville. Even though Pittsburgh's win at KC in the post-season gives the Chiefs revenge in this spot, the Steelers are so "ticked off" right now that they will be the team showing much more "fight" in this game. Also, that win at Kansas City only game by 2 points for the Steelers but they significantly ougained the Chiefs in that game. In fact, the Steelers have outgained KC by an average of 120 yards per game in the last two meetings. More of the same here. The AFC North is known for tough, physical football and the Chiefs can't hang. Look for them to drop to 2-5 ATS in their last 7 against the AFC North. I love having the substantial points here and the Steelers are a long-term 74-53 ATS as an underdog. Pittsburgh entered this season 10-1 ATS as dogs of more than 3 points when facing an opponent on a SU winning streak of 2 or more games. Also, the Steelers are 5-0 ATS as dogs when facing a team with a winning record that is playing against them with revenge! Chiefs are just 1-5 ATS when they are home off of a game where they scored more than 35 points. 10* PITTSBURGH

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NFL 8* Los Angeles Rams (+) @ Jacksonville Jaguars @ 4:05 ET - The Jaguars are off of their huge win at Pittsburgh last week. Jacksonville has yet to win back to back games this season and I don't expect that to change here. The Rams are hungry after their tough home loss versus the Seahawks last week. Los Angeles is a very improved football team this year as they actually outgained Seattle by over 130 yards in the 16-10 loss but they were done in by turnovers. That has helped to create some line value here and I do expect the Rams to respond in a big way after last week's frustrating loss to the Hawks. LA is averaging 272 passing yards per game as Jared Goff has responded very well to all the coaching staff changes that took place for the Rams heading into this season. By comparison, Jacksonville's passing attack is averaging only 159.6 yards per game. I look for the aerial attack to be a key difference-maker in this game. Being a favorite is certainly not a good role for the Jags. They've gone 2-6 ATS (and SU!) as a fave and the Jaguars are also an ugly 1-7 ATS (and SU!) in their games against NFC opponents. Give me the hungry road dog off of a loss as I expect Jacksonville gets caught still celebrating their huge win at Pittsburgh! 8* LOS ANGELES RAMS

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Detroit Lions (+) @ New Orleans Saints @ 1 ET - The Saints are getting accolades for their defensive turnaround in their past two games but I am not sold on them just yet. Yes they had the good performance versus the Panthers 3 weeks ago but that was largely a victory fueled by 3 Carolina turnovers. Note that in their other 3 games, New Orleans has only forced 1 turnover! Also, the fact the Saints shut down the Dolphins two weeks ago could certainly have an asterisk by it for two reasons. One, strange things happen in those games played in London - Ravens completely annihilated by Jaguars there earlier this season! Secondly, the Dolphins are absolutely the worst offense in the NFL. The point is that the Saints face a major challenge this week with Matthew Stafford and company coming to town. The Lions, of course, are use to playing in a dome and they won here both last season and the prior season as well. Detroit will be very hungry here as they fell just short of the comeback win versus Carolina last week. In road games with a posted total of 49.5 or more, the Lions are on a perfect 4-0 ATS (and SU!) run. The Saints are 0-2 ATS (and SU!) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. That makes this a "double perfect" spot to back the Lions and that's precisely what I am doing. The Saints are off of their bye week but the Lions have their bye week on deck and are coming off of a loss. They'll be hungry to get back on the winning track prior to their bye. 8* DETROIT

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL 8* Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Carolina Panthers @ 8:25 ET - Even though Panthers are 4-1 on the season, they are 2-1 in the last 3 games and those 2 losses each came by just a field goal. Getting the Eagles at +3.5 is certainly a great value here as the Panthers only blowout win this season came against a 49'ers team that is still winless on the season. The Panthers other win saw them score just 9 points versus Buffalo. Although the Eagles are expected to be without offensive tackle Lane Johnson in this one, his back-up is Halapoulivaati Vaitai and he has plenty of experience. Also, Philadelphia will look to take advantage of a Panthers secondary that is a bit banged up right now. Keep in mind the Eagles offense averages 397.8 yards per game which is behind only the Patriots and Chiefs this season! That's pretty good company to keep and Philly is averaging 27.4 points per game this season whereas the Panthers have scored a TOTAL of only 22 points in their two home games this year! Also, the road team has won 4 of the 5 Thursday games this season and while the Panthers were in Detroit Sunday the Eagles enjoyed a home game Sunday versus Arizona. The Panthers are 2-6 ATS all time in Thursday games. Even though this line is currently 3.5, it is still worth noting that the Eagles are 13-1 ATS as a road dog of more than 4 points when they are playing with revenge against an NFC team. It shows you that Philadelphia does play well in scenarios like this and the Eagles lost in their last visit here in October of 2015 and I am expecting payback tonight. 8* PHILADELPHIA

MNF Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach Monday NFL 8* Chicago Bears (+) vs Minnesota Vikings @ 8:30 ET - The Bears have been very strong on defense this season. Chicago is allowing only 306.2 yards per game. Their biggest problem has been turnovers by the offense. That is why the switch to rookie QB Mitchell Trubisky certainly doesn't cause me concern. It actually does give the Bears a better chance to win because QB Mike Glennon had been a turnover machine for Chicago. Although Sam Bradford is likely to be back at QB for the Vikings here, his knee is not 100% and the Bears defense is very aggressive and likely to cause some problems for an inconsistent Minnesota offensive attack. The home team has won each of the last 3 meetings between the teams and the one loss by a home team in the last 4 meetings came by just 3 points. In this spot we're getting more points than that with the home dog Bears and I like our chances. Chicago is actually 7-0 ATS in home games with a posted total between 35.5 and 42 points. Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in a road game with a posted total between 38.5 and 42 points. The Bears had the Thursday game last week so they've had extra time to prepare Trubisky for this game and get him ready working with the other starters on the offense as they prepare for this critical divisional match-up. The Bears have revenge from a 38-10 beating at Minnesota in the last meeting with the Vikes. That is significant here as Chicago is off of a blowout loss at Green Bay (due to turnovers) and the Bears are 11-2 ATS when they are at home and playing with revenge and coming off of an ATS loss by a double digit margin! The Vikings, in divisional games, are 1-7 as road favorites when they are off a loss (both SU and ATS). The Vikes were favored last week and they lost outright to Detroit. That is noteworthy here as Minnesota is 0-10 ATS when they are road favorites and coming off of an upset loss as a favorite. Also, the Vikings are 0-6 ATS on the road in Monday night games. As you see, there are plenty of ATS stats that support playing on Chicago and playing against Minnesota. Just adding up the perfect ones (1 in support of the Bears and 2 going against the Vikes) and you have a 23-0 ATS spot tonight that favors the Bears. I'll take it! 8* CHICAGO

Game of the Week - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:30 ET - This total has dropped heading into game-day and, in turn, it is offering great value on the over. The Monday night game with the Chiefs hosting the Redskins certainly had no business going over the total as it went over the closing number on an insane finish that also burned Washington backers (like me) who had the right side all the way in that game. In any event though good analysts must separate things from week to week and just because the Chiefs last game undeservedly went over the total it does not mean this one doesn't have the right set-up for an over. In this case, the Texans and Chiefs appear to be destined for a lot of points. I believe Kansas City's defense is going to struggle badly after getting pounded on by the Redskins last week and now playing on a short week and facing a resurgent Texans offense led by QB DeShaun Watson. Houston is playing with a ton of confidence on offense right now thanks to Watson and they've averaged 45 points per game the past two weeks. The Chiefs, even though it's taken some craziness, continue to "find a way" each week and Kansas City is averaging 30.5 points per game so far this season. I know the Texans are known for a solid defense but they did allow 337 passing yards to New England a few weeks ago and the Chiefs have thrown the ball very well in 3 of their 4 games. Also, KC has run the ball very well in 3 of their 4 games. The balanced offensive attack is a challenge for any defense and that includes the Texans! The over is 8-2 in Houston's last 10 October games. Also, the over is 17-7 in Texans games when they are a home dog of 3 points or less. The Chiefs are 24-16 to the over in road games with a posted total between 42.5 and 45 points. Kansas City's defense has consistently allowed over 100 yards rushing AND over 200 yards passing in each game so the red hot Texans are going to be able to move the ball here as the Watson era continues to develop. 10* OVER the total in Houston

Revenge Rout - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 8* Dallas Cowboys Money Line (-) vs Green Bay Packers @ 4:25 ET - The line is small enough here (-2 or -2.5) that the money line is actually available at a favorable enough price (-135 or -140) to make that the way to go here if you have access to it. The Cowboys, of course, have big-time revenge on their minds in this one. The only two times that Dallas has made the playoffs under Jason Garrett they've been knocked out each time by the Packers. The Cowboys are off of a home loss to the Rams last week and Dallas has alternated wins and losses so far this season. In fact, the Cowboys haven't lost back to back regular season games since the 2015 season. Dallas is averaging 416 yards per game on offense in their home games this season. The Packers are 3-1 on the season but lost their only road game (and it was ugly) at Atlanta. Green Bay is on a 9-10 run in road games (includes 2-2 in playoffs) dating back to October 2015. We are getting some line value because the Packers won 35-14 over the Bears last week and we'll take it because GB was actually out-gained by Chicago in that game. The Cowboys have struggled in post-season match-ups with the Packers but, overall, when hosting Green Bay the Boys have gone 9-2 SU (and 8-3 ATS) in the last 11 meetings. Also, the Cowboys are 11-0 ATS when they are off of a game where they allowed 35 points or more and are now facing a team that is off of a win by a double digit margin! While the Packers have a big divisional game with Minnesota on deck, the Cowboys have their bye week up next. Dallas has averaged 159 rushing yards per game at home and Green Bay allowed 141 rushing yards in their lone run game this season. Don't be surprised if the Cowboys ground game has a huge impact in a big home win here. 8* DALLAS

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oakland Raiders vs Baltimore Ravens @ 4:05 ET - With Derek Carr out for the Raiders, this is sure to be a contrarian play. The fact is that I expect EJ Manuel to come in and do a nice job in his place at QB as he takes on a Ravens defense that is reeling a bit. Baltimore has given up 169.5 rushing yards the past two weeks and 248.3 passing yards the past three weeks. If they have that type of day again here than it means the Raiders are tallying a total of about 418 yards of offense and that is going to put some significant points on the board for sure. On the other side of the equation, the Raiders run defense has given up 128.3 rushing yards per game in their last 3 games. Also, the Titans and Redskins averaged 305.5 yards through the air against Oakland's pass defense in Games 1 and 3 this season. That said, it is likely the Ravens offense is going to enjoy some success here. Baltimore's offense has been plagued by turnovers this season but the Raiders have forced an average of just 1 turnover per game this season. The Ravens are settled back in after the London trip was a disaster and then they had to come back and face a tough match-up with the division rival Steelers last week. Also, the Raiders are 16-1 (94%) to the over when they are facing a non-divisional AFC foe that is off of back to back losses. Of course the Ravens fit the bill and after scoring 22 points a game in their first two games (both wins) but then just 8 points a game in their last two games (both losses), I look for the Baltimore offense to surprise and put up some big points in this one. The over is 4-1 in the Ravens last 5 versus AFC West opponents. Oakland is 5-0 to the over against AFC North opponents and the Raiders are 3-0 to the over when they are a home favorite of 3 points or less. Combining all of these factors with the 16-1 above and you have a fantastic 28-2 (93%) spot favoring the over in this one. 10* OVER the total in Oakland

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 8* Arizona Cardinals (+) @ Philadelphia Eagles @ 1 ET - The Eagles defense is still quite banged up and they have a short turnaround ahead as they travel to Carolina for a Thursday night game this coming week. Philadelphia has given up 354 passing yards per game in their past two weeks. That spells trouble against an Arizona team that has thrown for an average of 302 passing yards per game the past 3 weeks! On the flip-side, the Cardinals have allowed an average of only 191 passing yards per game the past 3 weeks. The Eagles are 3-1 on the season but, in Week 1, they didn't pull comfortably away from the Redskins until very late. Since then the Eagles have gone 2-1 but the two victories each came by no more that a field goal margin. The point is that Philadelphia is going to again have their hands full this week as nothing has come easy for them this season. Should the Eagles prevail I look for it to again be by 3 points or less. The Cardinals are 0-4 ATS on the season but they are certainly one of the best win-less ATS teams that have seen at this point in a season and we are getting extra line value as a result. I'll take it. The past two seasons the Eagles have gone 1-3 (both SU and ATS) when they enter a game on a winning streak of 2 games or more. Philadelphia is also 0-4 ATS their last 4 against NFC West opponents. Arizona is 11-1 ATS when on the road against a non-divisional opponent with a winning percentage greater than .700 and the Eagles currently sit at .750 on the young season. Combining these "play on" and "play against" factors and you have an 18-2 (90%) ATS spot in favor of the Cardinals. 8* ARIZONA

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL 8* New England Patriots (-) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:25 ET - As I had mentioned prior to this season, the Patriots were one of my teams to generally fade this season as they had such ridiculous ATS success last season. That included burning me in the Super Bowl in that miracle comeback and cover versus the Falcons. In any event, indeed the Pats have been a team to fade this season and they've gone just 1-3 ATS thus far. However, their lone cover came after their first SU loss and I expect New England to again respond off of a loss here with a cover. The Patriots have played a much tougher schedule thus far in comparison with the Buccaneers. Also, Tampa Bay has turned the ball over 4 times this season and they have not forced any turnovers in their past two games. New England has turned the ball over only once this entire season and the Pats have forced 4 turnovers in their past two games. Tampa Bay is 1-6 SU and ATS in Thursday games. The Patriots, in weeks 5 through 9, are on a 9-0 SU run and 7-1-1 ATS. 8* NEW ENGLAND

ESPN Smash Pass Monday - Rickenbach NFL 8* Washington Redskins (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:30 PM ET - It so hard to win in the NFL week in and week out and, with the Falcons getting upset at home by the Bills Sunday, the lone remaining undefeated team is the Chiefs. Now certainly Kansas City has played good football this season but they're also over-rated in my opinion. Last week against the Chargers they were certainly helped by 3 Los Angeles turnovers. The fact is that the Chiefs were outgained by the Chargers in that game and the 14 point win for KC certainly fits the bill as a deceiving final. When factor that along with the fact that Kansas City truly pulled away late in each of their first two wins (at New England and versus Philadelphia) and you have the perfect recipe of an over-priced, over-rated team. The Chiefs scoring defense ranks high but their defense based on yardage ranks them near the bottom of the league and that right there tells you a lot. The Redskins defense (based on yardage) actually ranks near the top of the league and comparing these two offenses (based on yards per game) shows the Chiefs ranked only slightly higher. The point is we're getting fantastic value here with a Redskins team that is quite talented and you know Washington is going to "bring it" on a national TV Monday night game. By the way, the Skins also have an edge over the Chiefs in pass protection with KC ranked near the bottom of the league in sacks allowed. I also like the fact that the Redskins completely obliterated the Raiders last week and now have a bye week on deck! They are loaded with confidence and definitely read to go after undefeated Kansas City here. Redskins are a long-term 43-24 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points. The Chiefs are on a 6-11 ATS run in home games. An outright upset wouldn't surprise here but certainly I am grabbing the generous points. The Chiefs are over-rated at this point in the season and, while the Redskins have a bye on deck, KC has a tough match-up with red hot Deshaun Watson in Houston next week! 8* WASHINGTON

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Seattle Seahawks (-) vs Indianapolis Colts @ 8:30 ET - Normally I don't lay this many points but this is not a "normal" situation and I do expect the Seahawks to roll easily in this one! I know Seattle is 0-3 ATS on the season but they've played a much tougher schedule than the Colts have. Also, Indianapolis is, of course, still without Andrew Luck at QB. They're going to struggle to move the ball at Seattle - arguably the toughest place for visitors in the NFL The 49'ers were held to 312 yards when they played here in Week 2 and, back in Week 1, the Seahawks defense also was strong on the road as they held a solid Packers team to just 225 yards of offense. Of course the Seattle defense will be dialed here as they are off of that frustrating loss at Tennessee last week. As for the Colts defense, they've given up an average of 283.7 passing yards per game this season and their ground defense has been betting bashed the past two weeks. More of the same here and that turns this one into a rout. The Seahawks have won 7 of their last 9 games against AFC foes and they've only lost 2 times ATS in those 9 games. 8* SEATTLE

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL 10* Top Play Oakland Raiders (+) @ Denver Broncos @ 4:25 ET - It is hard to look much worse than the Raiders did at Washington last week but that is part of the key to value in a spot like this. In fact, it is likely that Oakland was already peeking ahead to this game. Not only is Denver a divisional foe but the Broncos knocked the Raiders playoff positioning by upsetting them in the final regular season game last year. Of course Oakland was without Derek Carr in that game and now Carr and the Raiders are anxious for their revenge. As for the Broncos, though they still have a solid defense, they've got some significant issues on their offensive line and Oakland has the pass rushing ability to take advantage. It is likely going to be hard for the Denver offense to do much here and the Broncos have been a turnover-prone team with 2 in each game so far. Oakland is on a 13-6 ATS run in road games including 4-1 ATS when they are a road dog of 3 points or less. That is the case here and I love the value with the healthier team coming in off of an ugly loss and also seeking divisional revenge that had a playoff impact. 10* OAKLAND

Total of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Chargers vs Philadelphia Eagles @ 4:05 ET - The Eagles defense is riddled with injuries. A lot of it happened in the Giants game and is what allowed New York to rally back to tie it. Philadelphia did eventually hang on for the win thanks to the miracle 61 yard field goal from the back-up kicker. The offense for Philly has moved the ball quite well. The Eagles are averaging 372 yards of offense per game this season. The problem here will be the defense that is so hampered by injuries. Philip Rivers and company are ready to exploit that defense as they are off to a frustrating 0-3 start but the offense has certainly looked better at times than what they have to show for it. The Chargers D is allowing 146.7 rushing yards per game and the Eagles, when they show commitment to the run, have been able to run the ball effectively. Even without Sproles (injured) they have a fine group of running backs that have all shown explosiveness. The over is 7-3 in Eagles games against teams with a losing record. Also, the over is 10-5 when Philadelphia is an underdog and 11-6 when they are on the road. The Chargers are 16-9 to the over in games against the NFC East and 6-3 to the over the past 2 seasons in October games. LA knows they can ill afford an 0-4 start and their offense will go full bore here but the Eagles offense won't be stopped either. The result? Shootout! 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles

Early Contrarian - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Los Angeles Rams (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 1 ET - Most will likely end up looking the way of Dallas here as everyone remembers the Rams dreadful season last year and certainly the Cowboys looked better in their bounce back effort versus the Cardinals. However, there are a couple of key edges here that offer significant line value for Los Angeles! The Rams last played a week ago Thursday so they have a huge rest edge over a Dallas team that just played on Monday night. Also, even though LA has a divisional foe (Seattle) on deck, the Cowboys have a huge revenge game versus the Packers up next. Remember Green Bay knocked them out of the playoffs on a last second field goal last year. Dallas certainly hasn't forgotten. On a short week and with a huge game on deck and with the Cowboys documented struggles at home, I have every reason to believe the Rams are going to present a major challenge on Sunday. Los Angeles has averaged 374.3 yards per game this season. By comparison, the Cowboys have averaged just 311 yards per game this season. Dallas is on an 8-15 ATS run in games played on turf and the Cowboys are on a 4-9 ATS run in games against teams with a winning record. The Rams have only been a road dog in the 3.5 to 7 point range twice in recent seasons. The result? Not only a perfect 2-0 ATS but also a 2-0 SU!  I am grabbing the points here but an outright win certainly would not be a complete shock. The Cowboys are in a true sandwich spot as they love being inthe spotlight and they are off of the MNF game and now have the huge game with the Pack on deck. 8* LOS ANGELES RAMS 

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* OVER the total in Miami Dolphins vs New Orleans @ 9:30 AM ET (game played in London) - I am aware the Saints have some injury issues on their offensive line but, keep in mind, New Orleans put up 34 points at Carolina last week and their confidence is back. Certainly the Saints have a potent offense but, as usual, their defense if very suspect. Before obliterating the Panthers last week, New Orleans had allowed 32.5 points per game in their first two games. I know that Miami's offense hasn't scored many points so far this season but they got ripped by their head coach after the loss to the pitiful New York Jets last week. Certainly the Dolphins haven't run the ball well but Jay Cutler has the ability to move this Miami offense through the air. Though they are averaging only 210 passing yards per game thusfar, look for the Dolphins to take advantage of a Saints pass defense that had allowed 388.5 passing yards per game in its first two games. The over is on a 10-4 run in games where the Saints are favored and the over is on a 7-4 run when the Dolphins are off of a divisional game. With New Orleans having a bye on deck, they'll go all out here but that means plenty of offense and some leaky defense as usual. As for the Dolphins offense, look for them to take advantage of facing a weak Saints defense as they respond after last week's embarrassing performance in the loss to the Jets. 8* OVER the total in the London game EARLY Sunday morning

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL 8* Chicago Bears (+) @ Green Bay Packers @ 8:25 ET - 3 of the last 4 meetings between these teams have been decided by a single possession. The average margin of victory in those 3 games was 5 points and I look for the Bears to again "hang tight" in this one. Chicago did win in Green Bay in November of 2015. Also, in their most recent meeting, December of 2016 in Chicago, the Bears lost by just 3 points. The Packers off of a draining overtime win versus Cincinnati where they had to rally for the win against the Bengals. That type of win expends a lot of energy and the Packers now are playing short rest with this being a Thursday match-up. The Bears are also off of an overtime win but they let most of the game so it didn't require the same effort that Green Bay's W did. Also, Chicago has been running the ball better and defending the run better than the Packers have so far this season. I like defensive-minded dogs that hold an edge in the ground game. Especially when they're getting more than a TD like the Bears are in this one. Chicago is 13-8 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Bears have been tough already in this TD price range this season and I look for another cover here as the Packers are also dealing with more injuries than the underdogs in this one. 8* CHICAGO

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach Monday NFL 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals (+) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:30 ET - The Cardinals had a disappointing 7-8-1 season last year while the Cowboys went 13-3. The key though is that the breaks really seemed to go the way of Dallas last year in tight games while Arizona was at the other end of the spectrum. The result is line value in a spot like this because Dallas actually was ranked in the lower 3rd of the league for pass offense and pass defense last season. Now they come into this game off of a match-up where RB Ezekiel Elliott just couldn't get going last week and with an inability to establish the run it exposes the fact that QB Dak Prescott does not have a great arm for getting the ball downfield. As for the pass defense, the Cowboys have some injury issues in the secondary and this puts them at risk here. Arizona was actually a solid all-around team statistically last year with their offense ranking 9th in the league and their defense ranked 2nd! The point is that they deserved better than where their record ended up. Hence, the value here. Now, in week 1 they did fall apart at Detroit as turnovers ate them alive as the game went on. However, the ability to bounce back and win on the road last week (albeit in OT) was a big confidence-booster for the Cards. Speaking of confidence, Arizona has won 4 straight versus the 'Boys. This is the Cardinals home opener and they are 5-0 ATS their last 5 as a home dog in non-divisional action. Couple that with the 4-0 ATS mark in their last 4 versus Dallas and you have a 9-0, 100% PERFECT combined mark favoring the home dog Cards here. I won't be surprised to see them get the outright win in this one but certainly am happy to grab the generous points. 10* ARIZONA

Sunday Night Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL 10* Top Play Oakland Raiders (-) @ Washington Redskins @ 8:30 ET - The Raiders showed a lot in their season opening win at Tennessee and then they were able to coast to a blowout win over the hapless Jets last week. That home win over the Jets certainly came much easier than what the Redskins went through last week. Not only did Washington have a tough divisional battle in Week 1 with the Eagles (and they lost badly and were outplayed significantly) they then had to go to battle with a Rams team in Los Angeles last week that was much tougher to "put away" then expected. The Redskins passing attack has not looked good this season whereas the Raiders overall offensive production has them ranked among the top teams in the league. Also, Oakland's aerial attack can take advantage of a Redskins pass defense that ranks among the worst in the league here in the early going this season. The Raiders are on a fantastic 13-3 ATS run in road games and QB Carr and WR Crabtree are proving to be a dangerous combo. Even though Oakland has a big divisional game on deck with Denver, they aren't going to overlook a Sunday Night game. Also, the Raiders are a "team on a mission" after getting ousted from the playoffs last season so quickly (because QB Carr had gotten hurt at the end of the regular season). Their "mission" continues Sunday night. 10* OAKLAND

Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 8* Los Angeles Chargers (+) vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 4:25 ET - A lot of home dog value here because the Chargers have essentially blown both of their games as they lost by 3 points or less each time and the Chiefs have won big despite being involved in games that were very close very late each time. Kansas City certainly has impressive wins for their "resume" with a 15-point win over the Patriots and a 7-point win over the Eagles but the fact is those were close games that "turned on a dime" in the 4th quarter. That's not to say that won't happen again here but the fact is that Los Angeles has been "on the cusp" in each game and the Chargers are catching the Chiefs at the right time to "get over the hump". That was an emotional win for Kansas City in their home opener last week and I look for them to be "spent' after head coach Andy Reid led his troops to victory over a former protege (Eagles head coach Doug Pederson) and his former team (Philadelphia). The Chargers have been swept by the Chiefs each of the last 3 years and this is LA's first divisional home game. In other words, the Chargers have had this one circled! 8* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS in late afternoon action Sunday

Game of the Week - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 10* Top Play Cincinnati Bengals (+) @ Green Bay Packers @ 4:25 ET - Both teams are off of losses last week but, statistically, both were "right there" with their opponents even though the fell short on the scoreboard. That said, the difference is the Packers lost a very important game as they were seeking revenge against the Falcons for defeating them in the NFC Championship Game in January and preventing a Super Bowl trip for Green Bay. Though the Bengals are also off of a loss last week it wasn't nearly as "deflating" of a defeat and the fact is that Cincinnati, sitting at 0-2 on the season, comes into this one very hungry as a result. The Bengals defense has played well and the team as a whole hasn't played as bad as their results would indicate as they were done in by turnovers in Week 1 and then, in Week 2, they played out a "defensive struggle" with the Texans. Keep in mind the Packers were down by as much as 24 in their loss at Atlanta last week so they certainly did not impress overall. The Bengals are 5-1 ATS when they are off of a game where they held to less than 10 points. Also, Cincinnati is 6-1 ATS when they are a dog in the first of back to back road games. The Bengals do have another road game on deck next Sunday while the Packers are in a tough scheduling spot off of a big Sunday night game and with a Thursday night game on deck. 10* CINCINNATI plus the big points in late afternoon action Sunday

Contrarian Crusher Early - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 8* Buffalo Bills (+) vs Denver Broncos @ 1 ET - Nice set-up here. The Broncos are off of a huge home win versus Dallas as they were up big in terms of emotions heading into that one. Now they travel for the first time this season and, not only that, Denver has a huge game on deck with division rival Oakland. This definitely looks like a "trap game" for the Broncos and, in addition, a "trap game" for the betting public. This line has been driven up from an opener of 1 to as high as a 3.5 as of Saturday evening. The Bills are on a 10-4 ATS run as a home dog and truly are "built" to be a dangerous home dog. That's because their defense ranks right up there statistically with Denver so far this season and Buffalo has a good ground game on offense. That rushing attack could surprise many by enjoying success against a Broncos run defense that, surprisingly, actually ranked among the league's worst last season. Don't be surprised if the Bills get the upset but certainly the available points are well worth the taking. 8* BUFFALO in early afternoon action

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 8* OVER the total in Jacksonville Jaguars vs Baltimore Ravens @ Wembley Stadium in London @ 9:30 AM ET - The Jaguars are playing in London for the 5th straight year and, for the 5th straight time, I expect the Jacksonville game at Wembley Stadium to result in an over. The 4 games across the pond (all OVERS) for the Jags from 2013 to 2016 have averaged a total of 55.5 points per game. We're getting line value here because the Ravens defense is involved. The fact is that the vaunted Baltimore D may not be fully focused because they've got their biggest rival, Pittsburgh, on deck for next week! I also like the additional line value here as this total has dropped from it's opener of 40.5 points. Look for this situation to improve to a PERFECT 5-0 to the over. 8* OVER the total in Jacksonville ULTRA EARLY Sunday morning

Thursday Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL 8* OVER the total in San Francisco 49'ers vs Los Angeles Rams @ 8:25 ET - Both teams have good running threats with the Niners led by Carlos Hyde and the Rams led by Todd Gurley. When NFL teams establish the ground game it adds to the ability to attack downfield through the air. LA QB Jared Goff is certainly looking more comfortable this season and though the 49'ers QB Brian Hoyer has missed some throws he also has been plagued by some key drops from his receivers. Still, with last week's cover against the Seahawks, Hoyer's teams are now 10-2 ATS in divisional action when he gets the start. However, the reason I am backing the over here and not San Francisco is because I expect the Rams to continue to enjoy some success on offense. Keep in mind they're averaging 33 points per game this season and they're also seeking revenge for having lost 3 straight games to the Niners. Los Angeles has gone over in 4 straight games (the first 2 this season and the final 2 last season). The 49'ers have allowed an average of 29.1 points per game in their last 8 home games since shutting out LA in last year's home opener. The Rams remember that shutout loss and make up for it in a big way here but don't be surprised if this game is back and forth all the way with more offense than you would expect. 8* OVER the total in San Francisco

Monday Night Top Play - Rickenbach NFL 10* Detroit Lions (+) @ New York Giants @ 8:30 ET - Not only are the Giants off of a divisional loss (at Dallas), they have a another divisional match-up (at Philadelphia) on deck. This is significant as the Giants are on a 3-7 ATS run in games that precede a divisional match-up. New York, has played 18 games (including one playoff game) since Ben McAdoo took over as head coach. They've gone 9-8-1 SU in those 18 games but have averaged just 18 points per game! In their last 7 games, the Giants have averaged just 13.6 points per game. It's hard to cover any type of spread as a favorite when you're not scoring points and, even if Odell Beckham Jr returns tonight, he's not 100% and he's also not necessarily going to be a magical elixir for the struggling Giants offense. Their long-term numbers tell the real story and I look for their struggles scoring points to continue. On the other side of the equation here, the Lions are off of a big season-opening win over the Cardinals and the way they rallied from a 3rd quarter deficit and then turned it into a blowout victory gives them plenty of momentum heading into this game. Also, Detroit is playing this game with revenge as they lost at New York in a late season match-up last year. That is significant here because the Lions are on an 8-1 ATS run when they are a road dog of less than 6 points and they are playing with revenge. Detroit was done in by turnovers in the loss at New York last year as the Lions did outgain the Giants in the 17-6 defeat. Payback time here. 10* DETROIT

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Atlanta Falcons vs Green Bay Packers @ 8:30 ET - While it is true that recent meetings between these teams have been wild, high-scoring shootouts (each of the last two totaling 65 points), the Packers defense is certainly in much better shape than they were when they had to face the Falcons in the NFC Championship Game in January. That is likely to key an under in this spot. This line was in the low 50s earlier this week but everyone sees Aaron Rodgers vs Matt Ryan and they see the recent point totals when these guys have matched up and everyone jumps on the over. The result is that this O/U has gone all the way up to a 56.5 and that offers great value to the under. The Packers secondary is like "night and day" compared to the end of last season when they faced the Falcons. Also, I look for a huge effort from Atlanta's defense as they open up their new home stadium on Sunday night. The Falcons D also could be helped because the Packers are still a little banged up along the offensive line. Note that Atlanta allowed only 301 yards in their road win last week and Green Bay allowed only 225 yards in their win over the Seahawks. The Packers were solid in run defense last season and now, with a healthy secondary, they will do a much better job against the Falcons prolific passing attack here. As for the Falcons defense, they shut out GB in the entire first half in the NFC Championship Game and, like the Pack, they are also healthy here. 10* UNDER the total in Atlanta

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Washington Redskins (+) @ Los Angeles Rams @ 4:25 ET - You'll be hard pressed to find a more value-filled situation than this one. The Rams are off of a huge win last week and now are getting a ton of respect from the betting markets in this one. I'd like to take this moment to remind everyone that Los Angeles was 4-12 last season and let's talk about the Colts team they just beat. Indianapolis was without QB Andrew Luck and the Colts defense was one of the worst in the league last season. Certainly the Rams benefited from Indy turnovers in that game just like the Redskins were hurt by turnovers in their loss to the Eagles last week. By the way, Philadelphia is certainly viewed as a team with playoff potential this season while the Colts (without Luck) are viewed as a team that is arguably going to be the worst team in the league this year. With that said, Washington's loss to Philly gives them huge motivation here while the Rams have a false sense of confidence after crushing a Colts team that is a mess right now. Keep in mind Los Angeles has still covered only 2 of their last 13 games while the Redskins are on a 14-6 ATS after last week's home loss. Last year the Rams defense was one of the worst in the league (including against the pass) and they now face a Redskins passing attack that was one of the best in the league last season. Look for Washington QB Kirk Cousins to bounce back with a huge effort this week. By the way, Los Angeles does have their divisional opener on deck and it is a Thursday game! Tough spot for the Rams here and the Redskins are angry! 10* WASHINGTON

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 8* Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 1 ET - The Chiefs just beat the defending Super Bowl champs. That was a huge upset win in the NFL season opener and it leaves Kansas City ripe for an upset here. While KC is off of an upset win, the Eagles are off of a win in a game that was right around a "pick 'em" spread. Philadelphia played very well on defense and forced turnovers in that game while QB Carson Wentz also proved his value with a solid game and making big plays when he had to. The Eagles are on an 11-2 ATS run against AFC opponents. A tightener within that is that it is a perfect 7-0 ATS run if their non-conference opponent has a winning percentage of .400 or more. Of course the Chiefs are 1-0 after their big 42-27 win at New England. Note that Kansas City is 0-5 ATS when they are at home off of a game where they scored 35 points or more! That means this spot is a combined 12-0 ATS in favor of the Eagles. I'll take it. Remember the Eagles were 5-1 last season in the games that offensive lineman Lane Johnson played in. He is back this season after the 10-game suspension last year and the Eagles running game looks very potent with LaGarrette Blount now in the mix! 8* PHILADELPHIA

Early No Doubt Rout - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 8* Arizona Cardinals (-) @ Indianapolis Colts @ 1 ET - Last week, Arizona looked like they were headed for a road win against a Lions team that was in the playoffs last season. However, the Cardinals were outscored 24-6 to finish the game as they blew the lead thanks in part to a rare turnover-filled game from QB Carson Palmer. The Colts are also off of a loss but their situation was much different. Indianapolis was simply dreadful last week at Los Angeles and the Colts got buried by a 37-point margin by a Rams team that was 4-12 last season. That is bad news for Indy here as they're really taking a step up in class this week as Arizona is much better than their 6-10 record last season and yes I am aware that RB David Johnson is out with injury. The Colts are not only still without QB Andrew Luck, they also were one of the worst defenses in the league last season while the Cardinals ranked as one of the best stop units in the NFL. The Cards are on a 6-3 ATS run as a road fave of 3.5 to 7 points. The Colts are 1-6 ATS when they're facing a non-divisional opponent that is off of a straight-up loss as a favorite. The Cardinals were a small fave at Detroit last week and they're fired up about the way they let that game get away and the way they came unglued as the game went on. The Cardinals need to "get right" before their home opener against Dallas coming up on Monday night. Look for the Cards to use the down-trodden Colts as their "punching bag" in this one. Road rout. 8* ARIZONA 

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati Bengals vs Houston Texans @ 8:25 ET - Both teams are off of horrible performances on offense last week and their games stayed under the total. Overall, the statistics on defense last week certainly look solid for the Bengals and Texans and, by all means, I am not saying they don't have respectable defenses. However, since both of these teams were down huge at halftime in their games, their opponents went into "safety mode" on offense. Cincinnati's opponent and Houston's opponent each had the luxury of going into "game management" mode and just trying to run a lot of clock and not make mistakes. That is helping to give us some line value here because each of these teams was on pace to allow some decent sized point totals last week. As for the poor performances of each offense, these guys are professionals. The biggest problem for the Texans was their offensive line and they've been hearing about it ever since. Those offensive linemen are going to come to play tonight and rookie QB Deshaun Watson is going to surprise some people in this start. Now, I am not saying the O-line is going to be completely fixed but I am saying they'll play much better tonight. As for the Bengals, QB Andy Dalton is off of a poor performance where he threw 4 picks. He will bounce back here. That's what solid quarterbacks do and he certainly is a solid QB! Look for the over to improve to 3-0 the last 3 times the Texans have been off of a divisional loss and also 6-3 in Houston's last 9 Thursday games. As for the Bengals, they are a long-term 20-11 to the over in home games with a posted total in a range of 35.5 to 38 points. Simply put, the odds makers had to over-adjust for this one due to over-reaction from the public based on the week one results. I am happy to step in and take advantage of the additional line value being offered. 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Monday NFL 8* OVER the total in Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints @ 7:10 ET - Here we have the "all defense, no offense" Vikings hosting the "all offense, no defense" Saints. That said, what gives? In my opinion Minnesota was fully focused on shoring up the offense in the off-season and lets not forget that QB Sam Bradford did put up some impressive stats last season. That said, no matter how hard the Saints try to shore up their defense it never seems to pan out and certainly there are no "quick fixes". The Vikings should (and will) score early and often in this one. As for the Saints, they have one of the top offenses in the league and now with Adrian Peterson returning to Minnesota in a Saints jersey, there is no doubt New Orleans has plenty of motivation and I expect some big plays from this dynamic offense. Tremendous respect for the Vikings defense but the Saints offense has tremendous talent and depth at running back and of course Drew Brees is one of the top quarterbacks in the league. New Orleans wrapped up last season on a 3-0 run to the over. The Vikings are 3-1 to the over the last 4 times they have been a favorite. In games with a line between +3 and -3, the Saints have gone 10-5 to the over the past two seasons. In road games with a posted total between 45.5 and 49 points, New Orleans is on a long-term run of 27-16 to the over. 8* OVER the total in Minnesota

Game of the Week - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:30 ET - Are you ready for the sophomore slump? Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott had great rookie campaigns for the Cowboys last season but Dallas finished the season on a 1-6 ATS run (including post-season loss versus Green Bay) and that is a sign of things to come. Even though Elliott is playing in this game his suspension issues have been a major distraction for Dallas. Also, the offensive line did lose two starters from last season's team and that could certainly be an issue here. The Cowboys were also very poor against the pass last season and the Giants are chomping at the bit to turn Eli Manning and Company loose in this one after a disappointing performance for the Giants offense in coach Ben McAdoo's first year at the helm. I like the offseason moves the Giants made to strengthen the offense. Also, the G-men have had the Cowboys number as they are on a 5-0 ATS run in games versus Dallas. That includes 3 straight SU wins and the most recent loss came by just a single point at Dallas in the season opener of the 2015 season. The Cowboys are off of a "miracle season" where everything seemed to fall in place for them in the regular season but lets not forget they were 4-12 in 2015. This is still a quality Cowboys team but they haven't had back to back playoff seasons in many, many years and New York has been a nemesis for them. In road games with a posted total between 45.5 and 49 points, the Giants are on a 28-16 ATS run. In games played on turf the past two seasons, Dallas is 6-15 ATS! More struggles for them at the betting window in this one! 10* NEW YORK GIANTS

Top Total Blowout - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Green Bay Packers vs Seattle Seahawks @ 4:25 ET - Beautiful weather for football at Lambeau Field Sunday afternoon as mild temperatures and lights winds will allow both offenses to operate at full efficiency. The Seahawks are running more of a hurry up offense heading into the new season and they also seek revenge from a beatdown at Green Bay last season. That said, I do expect Seattle to put up a lot of points here but the problem will be in stopping Aaron Rodgers and Company. The Packers averaged 33.7 points per game in their final 7 games of last season (including playoffs) and the over was a perfect 7-0 in those games! The Seahawks final 7 games of last season (including playoffs) saw them go 5-2 to the over. Other than the ugly performance at Green Bay (which their offense will surely atone for here), the Seahawks averaged 26.7 points per game in the other 6 games. Seattle is 7-1 to the over in their last 8 road games versus NFC North teams. The over is also 7-3 in Seattle's 10 games with a line between -3 and +3 the past two seasons. 10* OVER the total in Green Bay 

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ Washington Redskins @ 1 ET - You think the Eagles are ready for this huge divisional showdown? You'd better believe it! They've lost 5 straight games to Washington and are on an 0-6 ATS run versus the Redskins by the way. Coach Doug Pederson and quarterback Carson Wentz are both ready to shine in their second years here. The Eagles have won their first road game of a season in 7 of the last 8 years. Philadelphia made some great off-season additions and they now face a Redskins team that could be primed for a tough season. They are off of back to back winning seasons (although barely with their 8-7-1 last season) and you have to go back 25 years to find the last time that Washington has had a stretch where they recorded 3 straight winning seasons. Also, the Redskins are on an 0-4 SU and ATS run in season openers so, of course, that includes the final season Mike Shanahan was here and each of the 3 seasons that Jay Gruden has been the head coach here. Redskins defense (378 ypg) was ranked near bottom of the league last season while Eagles defense (20.7 ppg) ranked them 12th out of the 32 teams. Couple that with big off-season additions on offense and the fact that big offensive lineman Lane Johnson is back after missing 10 games due to suspension last year. He is a key player for Philly and they won 5 of 6 when he was on the field in 2016. Look for another W here. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL 8* Arizona Cardinals (-) @ Detroit Lions @ 1 ET - The Cardinals have had the Lions number. Included in this run of domination for Arizona, Detroit is on an 0-4 ATS run with the average margin of defeat 16 points per game! Also, the Lions wrapped up last season (including the playoff loss) with 4 straight losses and also an 0-5 ATS run. Detroit is hosting an angry Arizona team in this one too. The Cardinals feel they have "something to prove" coming into this season as they suffered a rare losing season after going a combined 35-14 (70%) the 3 prior years. The Cards actually had the #2 ranked defense in the NFL last year based on yards per game as they allowed only 305 per game. Arizona also had a top ten offense. Motivated by last year's disappointment, the Cardinals are going to come out strong here in Week 1 and that means great line value being offered here as a small favorite on the road at Detroit. If you have access to the money line on this one it is a very fair price so I would recommend taking it. If not, lay the small number with the Cards as they are 4-2 SU and ATS in September games the past two seasons while the Lions are an ugly 1-5 SU and ATS the past two seasons combined with September games. 8* ARIZONA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Thursday NFL 8* New England Patriots (-) vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:30 ET - Though I expect a "correction" on the Patriots this season after their insane ATS success last season and then improbable comeback win in the Super Bowl, the "correction" does not begin here. That's because, even though they lost WR Julian Edelman for the season with an injury suffered in preseason action, their offense is still light years ahead of the Chiefs. In fact, their defense is too. The key to the Chiefs success last season was being +18 in turnovers on the year. If you look closely at Kansas City's numbers, they ranked well in scoring offense and scoring defense last season but they were very fortunate with turnovers. The fact is that their defense ranked 24th as they allowed 369 yards per game and their offense only ranked 20th with just 343 yards per game. By comparison, the Patriots ranked at or near the top of the league in all 4 of those categories - yards and points both offense and defense. The fact is that the Chiefs offense is a concern that they did little to address in the off-season. This is nothing against QB Alex Smith but more so it is about the weapons (or lack thereof) that surround him. Also, the KC defensive line lost some key starters from last year's unit. Add in the fact that the Patriots unfurl their Championship banner tonight, QB Tom Brady is eager to make up for missing the first 4 games last season, and that the Patriots are seeking revenge for the last regular season meeting between the clubs. Yes, the Pats got some revenge with a playoff win following the 2015 season but they were embarrassed on national TV in regular season action at Kansas City in the 2014 season. That was Bill Belichick vs Andy Reid as well. Who do you think comes out on top this time? This one gets UGLY for the Chiefs. 8* NEW ENGLAND

Rickenbach NFL 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Super Bowl LI @ 6:30 ET Sunday 5 February, 2017 - Both teams certainly respect their opponents offense in this match-up. In other words, the Falcons know they need to keep Tom Brady off of the field as much as possible and, likewise, the Patriots know they need to keep Matt Ryan off of the field as much as possible. That said, even though the story line for this Super Bowl match-up is the two star QBs and the potent offenses they operate, I won't be surprised to see a fair amount of emphasis on the ground game for both these teams. Don't get me wrong, each QB will still be looking for opportunities to attack downfield but one of the keys here is that whoever has the lead throughout this game (and this could be back and forth in that regard) is going to look to run the ball as much as possible to keep their opponents strength (for each team it is the offense) off of the field. The reason this total got so high is all the crazy scores we saw in this post-season and the fact that the Falcons have been an "over machine" this season as well as the fact that public oftentimes makes its biggest wagers on the Super Bowl and is known for having an affinity for the overs (particularly in the Super Bowl). With all that said, the odds makers were forced to hang a high total on this game just to generate balanced action which, of course, is their ultimate goal. That said, note that Atlanta is fully capable of running the ball with success and has averaged 29 rushing attempts per game in their last 5 games. The Patriots also have been running the ball plenty and are averaging 32.4 rushing attempts per game in their last 5 games. On the defensive side of the ball both teams have been good of late about being "bend but don't break" and that has resulted in the Pats allowing only 10.6 points per game in their last 5 games and the Falcons allowing a respectable average of 19.3 points per game in their last 6 games. The last 4 times the Super Bowl has had a total in the 50s the under has cashed in every single time - a perfect 4-0 mark to the under. Also, the under is 10-4 in the Falcons games played on grass the last 3 seasons combined and the under is 4-1 in Patriots games played on grass this season. 10* UNDER the total in Super Bowl LI

Rickenbach NFL 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons (+) vs New England Patriots in Super Bowl LI @ 6:30 ET Sunday - The Patriots have only gained 155 yards on 54 carries in this post-season. The Falcons have not only gained 200 yards on 59 carries in the post-season, their rushing attack was stronger at the end of the regular season too. Atlanta has averaged 148.4 yards per game on the ground over their last 5 games. The reason I am talking so much about the ground game here is because I do feel it could be a key in this game. Both teams are led by tremendous quarterbacks with Tom Brady for the Patriots and Matt Ryan for the Falcons and each head coach knows the key to winning this game is keeping those guys off of the field. That said, a heavy dose of ground game is likely to be key from both sides here and I expect Atlanta to enjoy more success on the ground which could be the key here. Another angle I like is certainly the underdog mentality (hunger) of the Falcons here and the fact that QB Ryan has faced the Pats just twice in his career (2009 and 2013) and Atlanta lost both match-ups. Not only is it double revenge in that regard but Falcons coach Dan Quinn was the defensive coordinator with Seattle when the Seahawks faced the Patriots two years ago in the Super Bowl. Keep in mind Seattle was up 24-14 through 3 quarters in that game before the Pats rallied for the win in the 4th quarter. That experience will help Quinn here and the Falcons are "only" a 3 point dog here with good reason. This is an excellent football team and the Patriots strength of schedule this year has not been as strong as Atlanta's schedule. Also, for all that is made of how "dominant" the Patriots are (and certainly their amazing seasons and overall playoff performances are noteworthy) they are only 4-4 in their 8 Super Bowl appearances and the 4 wins have ALL come by 4 points or less. The aforementioned win over Seattle was the only 4 point win and the other 3 all came by just 3 points. Of course the Patriots are the "popular choice" here due to the public loving to back the "been there, done that" mentality but I really like the Quinn angle here against the Pats and the fact that New England is without Gronkowski and the fact that Atlanta will play up the underdog "us against the world" mentality for this game. QB Ryan has had a phenomenal season and, with all due respect to Brady, the Falcons weapons at the skill positions (guys like Julio Jones just to name one) are likely to be the ones that make the big plays necessary to win this game. I'll grab the points because in 8 Super Bowls the Patriots have only one win by more than 3 points so certainly there is value in having the field goal on our side BUT certainly I am playing this expecting the outright win for the underdog. 10* ATLANTA FALCONS plus the points

PA Insider Top Play - Rickenbach NFL 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (+) @ New England Patriots @ 6:40 ET Sunday - New England knocked off Pittsburgh earlier this season but the Steelers were without QB Ben Roethlisberger in that game. I know it is difficult to knock the Patriots but, one thing I will say is that they sure got a fortunate match-up last week. The only reason Houston was in New England is because Oakland fell apart once they lost their QB. That is what allowed a Texas team with a nightmare (Osweiler) at QB to venture up to Foxboro. Finally, this week, New England will be tested and it could be tough on them as they have had so many easy match-ups since Tom Brady returned early this season after his 4-game suspension. The Pats rarely have been challenged and arguably, their toughest match-ups did not end up impressing. The Patriots, in addition to facing the Steelers at Pittsburgh when Roethlisberger was on the shelf, had only two other truly tough games that were home games this season. In those, they lost to Seattle and they snuck by Baltimore by 7 points as a 6 point favorite. As usual, the Patriots are a public team and very few people will want to bet against Brady and coach Belichick in Foxboro in January. However, if any team can knock them off there, it is this Steelers team and they are healthy again at the skill positions and come into this game having won 9 straight games! Pittsburgh's defense has been phenomenal in their last 6 road games as they've allowed 310 yards or less in all 6 games. Of course the Steelers want revenge badly against the "mighty Pats" who always seem to find their way to the top and that only intensifies the defensive effort here. Keep in mind too that New England was okay without Rob Gronkowski for getting past a team like the Texans but facing the Steelers is a much tougher task! Pittsburgh has faced the tougher strength of schedule this season and the Patriots are in for a war in this one. I do expect the Steelers to win this one outright but I will, of course, grab all the available points as that is where the huge value is in this one, the generous points. 10* PITTSBURGH STEELERS plus the points Sunday evening

NFL Playoff Total of the Year - Rickenbach NFL 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Falcons vs Green Bay Packers @ 3:05 ET - Huge number (60) posted as the total on this game but it is absolutely justified. The Packers have won 8 straight games and have averaged 35 points per game in their last 6 games. The Falcons have won 5 straight games and have averaged 38 points per game. The funny thing about those numbers is the fact that a 38-35 type game would not be a surprise at all. Atlanta's Matt Ryan and Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers are certainly two of the best QBs in the league and also two of the hottest. I don't see the Falcons as being able to slow down the Packers as Atlanta's pass defense has been exploited in a number of games this season. As for Green Bay, they are so banged up on defense that they aren't going to be able to stop Ryan and Company in this one. Of course another real positive for the over is the fact this game is being played indoors on the fast turf in Atlanta. The Falcons have completed 80 of 106 passes in their last 3 games. The Packers are are well known for the fact that they have allowed ridiculously high completion rates this season. Of course the key for Green Bay staying in this game is their own offensive production and they throw much more than they run (another significant positive for an over). All 11 games that Atlanta has played on turf this season (including their 9 home games) have gone over the total - a perfect 11-0 mark. The over is 7-2 in Packers road games this season. Even though these teams each have some decent defensive numbers in recent weeks, those came against inferior competition and neither defense is built well enough (nor is healthy enough) to stop what they're going to be facing on Sunday. Look for VERY few punts in this one as both teams move the ball quickly up and down in the field in a track meet. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta Sunday afternoon

AFC Playoff Game of the Year - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:20 ET Sunday - Of course one has to respect the Chiefs and their 12-4 record but Kansas City benefited greatly from a positive turnover margin and because their special teams play is very strong. However, Pittsburgh is the stronger overall team and that should punch the Steelers ticket to the AFC Championship Game by the time this one is in the books. The Steelers, based on yardage, rank 7th in the league on offense and 12th in the league on defense. By comparison, the Chiefs rank 20th on offense and 24th on defense. Now you can see why the special teams and turnover margin have been such huge keys for the Chiefs this season. Now look for KC to be exposed by a legitimate Super Bowl contender. The Steelers already hammered the Chiefs 43 to 14 in the regular season and Pittsburgh enters this game having won 8 straight games. The Steelers offensive weaponry finally has "all hands on deck" and, in the 2nd straight game with everyone available (all skilled position starters) it is probable that Pittsburgh will prove to be even tougher to stop than they were last week against Miami. The Chiefs get a lot of "line shading" here because of their history at Arrowhead Stadium but note that Kansas City went an ugly 1-4 ATS in their home games against non-divisional foes this season! Also, the Chiefs are a long-term 2-11 ATS in playoff games. I am also well-aware of Andy Reid's long-term history of success when off of a bye week but the Steelers are the superior team on both sides of the ball and the Chiefs truly got here with some "smoke and mirrors" this season. 10* Top Play PITTSBURGH Sunday night

Texas Insider - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Green Bay Packers (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:40 ET - Most people aren't giving the Packers a chance here and I realize they do have some injury issues, particularly in the secondary, that are impacting here. However, what many people don't realize is that the "anointed one" with the Cowboys is really Ezekiel Elliott rather than Dak Prescott. Dallas is where they are today because they have a powerful running game and because certainly the ball bounced their way on a number of occasions (particularly early this season) that helped give them the momentum and confidence to get this point. The fact is that all the success that came from those two factors has masked the fact that their passing attack ranks just 23rd in the league. For comparison sake, note that the Packers passing attack ranks 7th in the league. Also, the Green Bay run defense ranks 9th so that matches up well with the Cowboys ground attack which ranks 2nd in the league. As for the Cowboys the concern on defense is their pass defense which ranks 26th in the league. The way I am approaching this game is have a veteran QB (Aaron Rodgers) who has plenty of weapons even with WR Jordy Nelson out, and he's attack a weak pass defense. I have a strong ground defense (Packers) that can focus on slowing down Elliott. I'll challenge the rookie QB (Prescott) to beat Green Bay through the air because, let's not forget, this is his first ever playoff game and he is facing a team that already saw him earlier this season and certainly is fired up about the rematch. The Packers have won 7 straight games and covered 6 of their last 7. At the opposite end of the spectrum, the Cowboys have failed to cover 5 of their last 6 games and yet they are the popular choice here as this line is now all the way up to a 6 as of the night before the game. The Packers are on an 8-3 ATS run when playing with revenge. The Cowboys aren't exactly a "covering machine" at home and, in fact, are on an 11-21 ATS run in games played on turf. 10* GREEN BAY plus the points Sunday afternoon

Saturday Night Special - Rickenbach NFL 8* Houston Texans (+) @ New England Patriots @ 8:15 ET - No one will give the Texans a chance here and I completely understand that, and yet, it has given us very strong line value on Houston in this match-up. Even though hosting a wounded Oakland team last week is nothing like facing a powerful Patriots team in New England, last week's win did quite a lot for Houston. It gives the Texans added confidence in QB Brock Osweiler and it allowed the defense to stay "in the zone" as Houston's D continues to be among the most dominating units in the league. That said, and especially with consideration to the factor that Rob Gronkowski is out, I don't buy into the Pats being more than two TD's better than the Texans. I am certainly well aware of the fact that the Texans go ripped by New England earlier this season and that Tom Brady didn't even play in that game. However, that was a turnover-fueled victory for the Patriots. Houston turned the ball over 3 times (compared to 0 for the Pats) and that was a key factor in why New England won 27-0 at Houston despite the yardage being very nearly equal! In fact, the Texans have now held the Patriots to 313 yards or less in each of the last 2 meetings and it helps that this will be their third time seeing New England in the past 13 months. The Pats, as a result of being 13-3 ATS this season, are simply over-priced here. The Texans defense is fired up about this chance at redemption against the Patriots and the offense is rejuvenated thanks to 4 wins in their last 5 games and Osweiler looking like he definitely learned a few things after being relegated to back-up duty. In the divisional round, #1 seeds have gone just 7-19 ATS the last 13 years. The Pats, of course, are the #1 seed in the AFC, and they have no reason to try and "run up the score" here and against a solid Texans defense I doubt they'll even have the chance. Grab the huge points as this Texans team come into this one with some newfound confidence and a defense that, deservedly, has a swagger in its step! 8* HOUSTON plus the big points Saturday evening

Saturday Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NFL 8* Seattle Seahawks (+) @ Atlanta Falcons @ 4:35 ET - I have a ton of respect for the Falcons offense but they're facing a red hot Seattle defense and, make no bones about it, the Atlanta defense is a major weakness. That said, the Seahawks have been moving the ball very well and I just don't see the porous defense of the Falcons as being capable of stopping them. Based on yardage allowed, the Falcons rank 25th in the NFL on defense while the Seahawks rank 5th in the league! Another concern for Atlanta here is that they haven't tough competition since their very first game of December. That was against the Chiefs and Atlanta lost even though they were at home. Since the, the Falcons played 4 games against the two worst teams in their division and the two worst teams in the Seahawks division. The combined record of those 4 teams was 19-45. That certainly didn't help Atlanta in terms of being "game ready" for this one and sometimes the week off can actually hurt a teams rhythm on offense. As for Seattle, they've had to face the top two teams in the NFC North in the past few weeks. The Packers (an ugly loss but an aberration for the Seahawks) and the Lions combined to go 19-13 in the regular season. Seattle did beat the Patriots in New England earlier this season and they are 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season! The Seahawks also won all 4 games this season when facing a team with a winning record and Seattle is 10-2 SU on turf this season! Surprisingly, the Falcons are only 1-4 ATS this season in home games with a posted total of 49.5 points or more. Atlanta has trouble "putting teams away" and has gone 8-18 ATS as a favorite the last 3 seasons and 2-8 ATS when off of a win against a division rival and the Falcons are a long-term 3-11 ATS in playoff games. It's hard to argue against the better defense here and a more "proven team" in terms of playoff experience. The Hawks are hungry! 8* SEATTLE plus the points Saturday afternoon