NFL Sunday 8* New Orleans Saints -4.5 vs Seattle Seahawks @ 1 ET - This Seahawks is one of the worst teams in the league. They have a horrid defense. I know this team is 2-2 this season but they never should have beaten the Broncos in week 1 as anyone who watched the game knows. It was a fluke win. Then they lost their next two games by a combined score 54 to 30. Then last week they did get the win but allowed 45 points. This Saints team can play defense. Also, Dalton looked solid at QB last week in the loss at London versus Vikings. Dalton played just fine and now New Orleans gets RB Kamara back this week. Also they have a rookie WR who has been excelling and showed good chemistry with Dalton last week and that helps alleviate the concern of WR Michael Thomas again being out this week. Better defense, at home and off a loss and note Seahawks allowing an average of 36 points per game in road games this season and playing the 2nd game of a B2B away from Seattle. Saints have had only one home game and it was against a tough Bucs team. They are going to take advantage of their first home game against a weak foe and then they win this convincingly. 8* NEW ORLEANS -4.5

NFL Sunday 8* Green Bay Packers -8 vs New York Giants @ 9:30 AM ET (London) - The Packers outgained the Patriots by 162 yards last week. Yes was OT win but Green Bay was better than final score indicated. The Pack, based on yardage stats, the better team on both sides of the ball in comparison with the Giants. I know New York has a good record so far this season but I feel a regression is coming. Lets not forget the Giants have not won more than 6 games in a season in many years. New York has been fortunate to win some tight games this season but this one unlikely to be tight. Green Bay just too much for New York. The Giants toughest match-up this season, based on current records, was Dallas and they lost to Cowboys despite being at home and despite the Boys being without Prescott at QB. The Packers, in my opinion, have faced the tougher schedule including Vikings and Buccaneers. Green Bay is a team many consider to be a threat for the Super Bowl this season. The Giants are not expected to be a playoff team and the Packers also have the edge in pass protection here. Look for the favorite to pull away as this game goes on and win this by double digits. 8* GREEN BAY -8

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 41.5 or 42 in Denver Broncos vs Indianapolis Colts @ 8:15 ET - We are already starting to see some 41.5 on this game and I know this is a contrarian play but I love the value here. In the Colts first road game this season they had over 500 yards of offense but turnovers did them in a 20-20 tie at Houston. Now, in their most recent game last week, they were at home against Tennessee and managed only 17 points despite over 300 yards of passing offense. Indianapolis was again done in by turnovers. By the way, they could not run the ball against the Titans so they had to throw. A lot of passing is what you want when you have an over and, by the way, the weather conditions will be perfect in Denver tonight. Additionally, the Broncos are coming home angry off a loss. However, the Raiders did expose some holes in this Denver defense you can put Frank Reich, a smart offensive-minded head coach, will be ready to take advantage here. I know the Colts offensive line has not been good this season but Reich is sharp and Matt Ryan is a wily veteran. This offense will have things designed to get rid of the ball quickly and also to utilize misdirection and other elements to keep the Broncos defense a little off-guard. Also, if Denver brings the house on blitzes they can get beat deep. This Colts team still has plenty of talent to get the ball to downfield. Everyone is looking under in this game and I totally get it based on the results so far this season. But you know what usually happens when the masses are all looking one way on a game. I feel strongly that Denver at home is finally going to have that breakout game on offense that we've been waiting for. When they played at Seattle to open the season they had over 400 yards of offense but just did not have the points to show for it. This is a value spot on a low total as Russell Wilson is going to end up in an aerial show with the other QB veteran, Ryan, in this one and I feel strongly that we will see more fireworks than most are expecting. Remember the Broncos defense faced some struggling offenses to start the season. Then they ran into a talented Raiders offense and struggled last week. The Colts, prior to that gut-wrenching loss to Jacksonville to end last season, were on a run in which their 13 games before that saw them average 30 points scored per game! That is over 13 games. Not a short-term run. Do you really think they have fallen that far from one season to the next? No, their passing yardage has been there but they must cut down on turnovers. I think Reich is going to have a great gameplan here but I also expect a huge game from Wilson and the Broncos at home. Take advantage of the line movement here. 10* OVER 41.5 or 42 in Denver

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams +1.5 or +2 @ San Francisco 49ers @ 8:15 ET - Motivation is so important when professional players are paid many millions to play the sport they love. Guys still sometimes don't have it. They come to the game not fully prepared mentally and they pay for it. That is what happened when the defending Super Bowl Champs opened the season against the Bills and got thoroughly embarrassed on national TV with the whole world watching. Los Angeles got caught still celebrating the Super Bowl victory and thinking a little too much of themselves entering the new season. What does that have to do with this game you might ask? A helluva lot! This is the Rams first chance since then to redeem themselves on the big stage. No one likes to be embarrassed. This is Monday Night Football. It is a division rival. The defending champs will bring their "A game". Now I am not here to tell you this Rams team is as good as last year because they are not. However, they are still better than the 49ers. Yes San Francisco has a great defense but the Rams have a solid defense too, to say the least. Also, LA is particularly strong against the run and the Niners are not a good passing attack (as per usual). So this is where the final key comes in. Rams QB Stafford and the overall LA passing attack ranks the edge over the Niners in that department for sure AND it was Stafford that got embarrassed too with a rough game against Buffalo on opening night. Redemption time here and I know some will point to the revenge angle here for Niners from last year's playoff loss. But these teams just plain don't like each other AND the Rams had actually lost 6 IN A ROW to the Niners before that playoff win. So there is still some payback to be served here and SF has scored less points this season than LA has the past two weeks. Stafford stats the past two weeks are 45 of 61 for 521 yards and 3 td vs 2 int. Garoppolo only 31 of 50 for just 365 yards with 2 td vs 1 int. Also Jimmy G got sacked 4 times last week. Stafford just once each of past two weeks. The Rams ability to move the ball better through the air is the difference in this game. The motivation because of getting drilled on opening night of season on national TV is the other as they show the world the Rams are still a force to be reckoned with by delivering a Monday night bounce back and improve to 3-1 while trying to bury the rival Niners and knock them down to 1-3 on the young season. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS +1.5 or +2

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 45.5 in Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:20 ET - The Chiefs scored just 9 points when Andy Reid and company met Tom Brady and company in Feb of 2021. You can bet that NO ONE in this Chiefs organization has forgotten and KC is fired up for this game. Tampa Bay's defense has been great this season but they have not faced an offense like this just yet. Plus Kansas City is off a loss at Indianapolis last week. Chiefs are in a foul mood and will be raring to go here. Trouble for Chiefs? I do not trust this defense one bit. I just don't. Too many times I have seen them scorched and they are not that good away from home either. The defense that is. The offense is just fine. But when KC defense does not have the home crowd behind them they just don't seem the same. So Tampa Bay has not looked good on offense so far but they have faced a trio of solid defenses. No one can question how good Dallas and Green Bay has looked on that side of the ball and their other opponent was the Saints who have solid defensive stats too. The Chiefs have allowed at least 20 points in all 3 games this season and I know their stats on defense are "okay" but the 3 teams they have faced have a total of 3 wins in 9 games this season. This Bucs team is 2-1 this season and on their home field and ready to attack coming off a 14-12 loss to a tough Green Bay defense last week. I look for this game to prove to be much more wide open than many are expecting here. 10* OVER 45.5 in Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Denver Broncos +2.5 or +3 @ Las Vegas Raiders @ 4:25 ET - The betting markets still don't believe in Denver. The Broncos should be 3-0 this season already. They absolutely dominated the Seahawks in Week 1 but were handed a tough loss despite a massive yardage edge. The Raiders, on the other hand, continue to get the respect of the markets despite being 0-3 on the season. They were chasing for the entirety of the game at Tennessee last week as they got down to the Titans and that had to try to battle back but it was too little too late. It takes awhile for a new coach, Josh McDaniels, to get his team all on the same page and Las Vegas is now 0-3 both SU and ATS this season. I know the Broncos have not scored well this season but this offense can still produce and has Russell Wilson at the controls. Their offense is also more well-balanced than a Raiders offense that relies so heavily on the pass. Also, the Broncos are, without question, the much tougher defense. That sets this one up well for an upset victory but I am happy to grab the 2.5 or 3 points being offered in this one as of very early Sunday morning. Another key for me here is that the Broncos have lost 4 straight in this series. They want this game and they have the QB now, in Wilson, to get the job done and lead them to victory on the road here. Raiders have failed to cover 7 of the last 10 times they have been a home favorite. 10* DENVER +2.5 or +3

NFL Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 vs Jacksonville Jaguars @ 1 ET - Coming into this season the Jaguars were expected to notch about 6 wins and the Eagles about 10 wins. Now with the Jags off to a surprising start the betting markets have over-reacted and you have this game priced in a way that indicates Eagles would only be favored by a FG over Jacksonville on a neutral field. I am not buying it! This Eagles team is for real and was forecast to reach double digits in wins for a reason. Jalen Hurts put in a lot of off-season work and it has paid major dividends for him and for these Eagles. Now they are at home and laying less than 7 against a Jags team that is a perennial loser. I am not saying the Jaguars with Lawrence at QB and Pederson at head coach deserve respect. They absolutely do merit respect. But they are still not the same talent level right now as this Eagles team. Philly has a game out West at Arizona after this. They know they must make the most of this home game. They got 9 QB sacks last week. The Jags have been great in pass protection so far but this is a different animal they are facing this week! Also, remember all the turnovers the Eagles generated in their only other home game this season versus the Vikings! Jacksonville has covered just 3 of last 11 overall and 3 of last 11 when in road dog role too. Also, Jaguars incredible 4-30 ATS against NFC teams long-term. The Eagles have covered 5 in a row as a home favorite and I love the line value here. 8* PHILADELPHIA -6.5

NFL Sunday 8* New Orleans Saints +3.5 vs Minnesota Vikings @ 9:30 AM ET in London - I am well aware of the QB situation for the Saints but with Winston having some turnover issues the fact that Dalton and Hill will be the QB options for New Orleans here may not be such a bad thing. Also, the Saints outgained the Panthers substantially last week at Carolina including by nearly 200 yards through the air but they were done in by turnovers. The Vikings hung on to beat Detroit last week but they did lose the stats battle there. Remember their last road game was at Philly and they got destroyed by the Eagles. I have a strong feeling the Saints win this one outright given all of the above. Statistically, they are the better team on both offense and defense so far this season but have been done in by turnovers. Watch Dalton and Hill both produce well for the Saints offense in this one. Grabbing the generous points here. 8* NEW ORLEANS +3.5

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 47.5 in Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins @ 8:15 ET - Statistically the Dolphins are one of the top teams in the league for passing offense but one of the worst in terms of pass defense. That is the perfect set up for an over and we also have beautiful weather expected tonight in Cincinnati so both offenses can have the playbook wide open for this one. Love the fact that the Bengals have had all 3 of their games stay under the total and the Dolphins have had 2 of 3 stay under. This means we have a value spot here and sure enough the posted total has moved a little lower and I already felt it could have been higher. Bengals did not score well in the home loss to Pittsburgh to open up the season but they had 432 yards of offense in that game! Cincinnati will have another big performance in what is just their 2nd home game of the season but this time they will have more points to show for it. Keep in mind the Dolphins just faced a #1 ranked Bills defense and another one of their games was against a Patriots defense that has been solid in terms of yardage allowed this season. The point is that this Miami offense, their passing attack, is legitimate and will put pressure on this Bengals defense but I look for Cincinnati to match them score for score in what should be a wide-open and high-scoring affair. QB Tua Tagovailoa and WR Jaylen Waddle both were on the injury list as questionable but both expected to play here and I think the way they were handled this week is more precautionary than anything else. 10* OVER 47.5 in Cincinnati

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Dallas Cowboys +1 @ New York Giants @ 8:15 - It is hard to stay undefeated in the NFL for very long. This is the final game of week 3 and only the Dolphins in AFC and Eagles in NFC are 3-0 teams. The point is that the Giants have a chance here too as they are 2-0 but it shows you how odds are stacked against this happening considering there are 32 teams in the league and all but 3 of them have at least 1 loss on the year. Aside from the "odds factor" here, I am playing Dallas in this one because their defense really impressed in the week 2 win over the Bengals and I also liked what I saw from Cooper Rush at QB. Yes it has hurt the Cowboys that they are without QB Dak Prescott but they still are a very talented team that annually is a threat for double digit wins in recent years. Conversely, the Giants have annually been a threat for double digits losses for half a decade now. New York has played better than expected and is 2-0 to start the season but I still don't trust QB Daniel Jones. After a good rookie season he had nearly as many INTs as TDs the past two seasons combined. I know he is off to a good start this season but he is going to face a tough challenge here with the way Dallas can get after the QB. I expect the Cowboys to win this game in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Also, Cowboys have won 9 of last 10 games against Giants. Also, Dallas has covered 6 straight games in divisional action. The Cowboys, long-term, on a very strong ATS run and that opening game primetime embarrassing loss to Tampa Bay has them primed for a much better effort on the road in this primetime affair. They can know up the Giants for a tie for 2nd place in the division with a win here. Yes it is early in the season but you can bet the Cowboys are very hungry here while Giants dealing with a little extra pressure to remain unbeaten and they are at home and facing a nemesis and coming off B2B dramatic tight wins. 10* DALLAS +1

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Denver Broncos +1.5 vs San Francisco 49ers @ 8:20 ET - The 49ers have a good defense no doubt but San Francisco has seen bad offenses so far this season. Bears one of worst offenses in league and that opening week game at Chicago was played in rainy conditions. Then in week 2 the Niners faced a bad Seahawks offense. Seattle, like Chicago, will likely end up being one of the worst teams in the league this season. Now I know what your thinking...the Broncos lost to that bad Seattle team in week 1. However, Denver outgained the Seahawks by 180 yards and that was simply a bad beat for people that backed them - just like I did win week 1. That was a Monday night game and a big one for Russell Wilson in his return to Seattle. So the Broncos QB and the entire Denver team had a bit of a lackluster effort against a bad Texans team ad playing playing on a short week last week. Trust me, they'll now be ready for this primetime affair and they are not getting nearly enough respect from the oddsmakers. The Broncos also have a good defense just like the Niners do. The difference is the 49ers lost QB Trey Lance to a season-ending injury and Jimmy G was the back-up for a reason. He gets the start again here and the SF offense just is not that good no matter who is at QB. The Broncos have the better weapons and they have the better QB in Wilson. Add it all up plus the home dog value here and I am all over this one! 10* DENVER +1.5

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 42 in Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers @ 4:25 ET - This total has plummeted. The tropical storm approaching Florida is in the news but that is still a few days away. That said, the big reason for the drop here is that the Bucs have concerns at the WR spot. Evans is suspended for this game and Godwin is out with an injury. I do expect Julio Jones to play and QB Tom Brady (finger) also has been given the all clear for this one. Gage and Perriman and Miller all expected to be available at WR too for this one. Also Cole Beasley has been activated from the practice squad to the roster and he caught 82 passes EACH of the last two seasons for the Bills. Everyone excited about the Packers defense after they shut down Bears last week but the Chicago offense is currently putrid. The week before the Pack gave up nearly 400 yards and allowed 23 points at Minnesota. Yes that is the same Vikings team the Eagles just held to 7 points on Monday night. As for the Bucs team they have faced a dysfunctional Cowboys offense and a Saints offense with a long-term inconsistent QB (Winston) at the helm. Now the Bucs D faces Aaron Rodgers! This total is a 42 and we are talking about Brady versus Rogers. I see more points being scored than many are expecting here. Green Bay's offense was done in by turnovers in week 1 and then in week 2 they piled up 27 points in first half before taking their foot off the gas in the 2nd half and the Bears defense is solid. These teams are offering us great value on the low total here because they each have had B2B unders to start the year. 10* OVER 42 in Tampa Bay

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts +5.5 vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 1 ET - Being a contrarian in the NFL has served me very well through the years. I love this spot for the Colts. They just lost at Jacksonville in embarrassing 24-0 fashion. This was after an embarrassing tie at Houston in which they outgained the Texans by over 200 yards but still did not win the game. Now Indianapolis plays their first home game of the season and they are catching 5.5 points against a Chiefs team off a very lucky win. Kansas City got the non-covering win versus the Chargers last week but were outgained, even though at home, by nearly 100 yards! The Chiefs truly only won that game because of a 99-yard interception return that was essentially a 14-point swing on the scoreboard. Now we get line value this week as a result. The 2-0 Chiefs at the 0-2 Colts. Looks like a no-brainer, right? No, this is the NFL and "on any given Sunday" holds very true in many games each and every week. The Colts are much better than they have shown so far and the Chiefs piled up yardage against a bad Cardinals defense in week 1 but then struggled quite a bit against a real defense in the form of the Chargers last week. Keep in mind, statistically the Colts have been much better on both sides of the ball then the point totals show. Grab the home dog and I am expecting an outright upset here but will grab the points. 10* INDIANAPOLIS +5.5

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Cleveland Browns -4 vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:15 ET - If you just look at points scored versus points allowed you don't get an accurate picture of where these two 1-1 AFC North rival teams are really at right now. The fact is that Cleveland has been the much better team statistically in comparison with Pittsburgh. Adding to the value with the Browns here is they have more than just the home field edge here. It is expected to be very windy in Cleveland for this one and that makes the ground game all the more important. The Steelers are not a good a ground team and also don't defend the run well. Conversely, the Browns are strong in both those areas. They can pound it on the ground and they do a good job of stuffing the run on the other side of the ball. That said, we have excellent line value here with Cleveland laying a rather short number in this one. I like to look for dogs in the NFL generally speaking but the Steelers are a really bad football team right now on both sides of the ball. The Browns will take advantage as they are angry off the late-game home loss to the Jets last week. Keep in mind, Pittsburgh was outgained 432 to 267 in week 1 but had a 5-0 turnover edge and yet still need OT to get the win at Cincinnati. The Browns have only 1 turnover in two games and the Steelers will not be so fortunate here receiving gifts like they did in the win over Bengals. Also, Pittsburgh was again outgained big, 376 to 243, by the Patriots last week and that game was at Heinz Field! This is a tough road spot for the Steelers plus the Browns have double revenge from last season in addition to being angry about last week's loss to the Jets! 10* CLEVELAND -4

NFL Monday 8* Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 vs Minnesota Vikings @ 8:30 ET - Long-term NFL betting has as much to do with line value as anything else and getting Philly at less than a field goal at home here is a good value. Some of this value was created by the Vikings looking strong to the betting public because of a 23-7 win over Green Bay last week but their yardage edge was slim in that game plus it was in Minnesota. Another key the value here is the Eagles had a big lead at Detroit last week but then gave up some late scoring to the Lions. That put a bit of anti-Philly buzz on this game. So with a line less than the key number of 3, why am I comfortable taking Philadelphia here besides just the value? Well, the Vikings are now on the road where last season they went just 3-6 SU. Also, one of those wins came against a Bears team that was so bad last season that they had a 5-game HOME losing streak going until they beat the Giants in their home finale. Another Vikes road win came in OT. So, the point is that the Vikings have certainly not been "road warriors" of late. As for the Eagles, they enter this game having won 3 of last 4 at home but note the only loss was that meaningless regular season finale versus Dallas last year. Eagles already knew they were going to playoffs already. The point is that in meaningful games, and after last week's road win at Detroit, Philly has won 7 of 8 in regular season action including 3 straight at home. I am grabbing the value with the home team here. 8* PHILADELPHIA -2.5

NFL Monday 8* OVER 47.5 in Buffalo Bills vs Tennessee Titans @ 7:15 ET - Weather moving through Buffalo today but expected to clear out by mid to late afternoon. That means this early evening battle should not have any issues with rain and/or wind. That said, I am looking for both offenses to function just fine here. The Bills put up 31 at LA last week against the Rams. The Titans scored 20 but should have more at home against the Giants and ultimately they paid for it. I feel Bills defense could be a little flat here after giving so much in knocking off the Super Bowl champs last week. At the same time, I certainly do not trust the Titans defense on the road after they gave up nearly 400 yards of offense to the Giants and that game was at Tennessee. This total was in the low 50s and the crazy trend of primetime NFL games staying under the total finally meets its match here. The Packers and Bears had 31 points at half last night but still managed to stay under 41.5 and I feel all these unders also coming some line shading here that is just not justified. This one gets well into the 50s as both offenses have plenty of weapons and the game involves a pair of quarterbacks that have put up some solid numbers in some recent seasons to say the last. 8* OVER 47.5 in Buffalo

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 41.5 in Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears @ 8:20 ET - Love taking an over when it has dropped like this one. Yes, the Bears are off an ugly 19-10 win last week but it was played in bad weather. QB Fields will be better this week as excellent weather in the forecast for Green Bay in this one. The trouble for Fields and company in this one is on the other side of the ball. Chicago is facing a much tougher test this week as now they face Aaron Rodgers and an angry Packers offense after they were held to just 7 points by the Vikings last week. At home and off a loss, Green Bay is known for bouncing back and they are, of course, double digit favorites here for a reason. I generally am not comfortable laying double digits in NFL games but this is particularly true in a divisional game where I expect the underdog to have some success moving the ball. Keep in mind Fields has added a new dimension to the Bears attack on offense plus the Packers did allow nearly 400 yards of offense this week. I would not be surprised to see Green Bay win big here but I think they surrender some points along the way as well and look for a 30-20 type game in this one. Last year's meeting here at Lambeau totaled 75 points and I'll gladly take 2/3 of that for the win here with my numbers forecasting this one to land around 50! Fields had about 300 yards of offense in that one through the air and on the ground so that helps the confidence of the young QB for this one. Plus coming off the win, even though ugly, last week also helps Fields. 10* OVER 41.5 in Green Bay

NFL Sunday 10* OVER 45 or 45.5 in Denver Broncos vs Houston Texans @ 4:25 ET - This total has risen higher but it is fully justified in doing so. This is one of those rare occurrences where I actually I am on the move rather than fading it. But the reason is that I had my eyes on this for a potential play ever since Texans allowed over 500 yards to Colts last week but miraculously only gave up 20 points in the eventual OT tie. Couple that with the fact Broncos lost at Seattle and scored only 16 points despite piling up 433 yards of offense and you have a great set up for Denver to score a ton of points here. However, I do not like laying big points in spread sports so my play here is the over rather than the Broncos. I do expect Denver to be relentless and never take their foot off the gas in this one because they are angry about how the Monday night game ended in Seattle. However, Denver will give up some points here too. For one thing the defense gave a big effort against the Seahawks and now play this one on a short week. Also, Mills was decent at QB for Houston versus the Colts last week. If they get 20 again but lose this by double digits like I fully expect they will, then this one gets well into the 50s. Expecting huge game from Russell Wilson and company after last week's frustrating final. The other thing I like here, and the reason I wait longer to release my plays, is that the weather checks out perfectly in Denver for this one. That said, and with both these kickers solid at distance, we could get some long field goals to help our cause in this one too. What happens when a guy misses a long one too? Short field the other way. Conditions and situation just perfect for plenty of points here and of course I am expecting plenty of touchdowns here but just mentioning the field goal game helps us too and I do not expect many punts in this one. 10* OVER 45 or 45.5 in Denver

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts -2.5 or -3 @ Jacksonville Jaguars @ 1 ET - Line value because the Colts are on the road. Line value because everyone saw Colts end up in an overtime tie at Houston last week. Line value because many may not have realized Indianapolis won the yardage battle 517 to 299 over the Texans last week. Line value because many may have forgotten (but Colts surely have not) that it was these Jaguars that cost Indy a playoff berth last season. Line value because many may have forgotten (but we have not) that Jacksonville, after last week's loss, is now on a long-term 4-30 SU run. Going further back it is a 15-51 SU run for the Jags. It has been a long time since the Jaguars have put a winning team on the field as their last successful season was 2017. Conversely, this Colts team is a winner and they prove it on Sunday and get payback for last year's loss. Very comfortable laying the short number here. Look for QB Matt Ryan to cut down on the fumbles here and for Indy to, overall, have a very complete game in this one which will lead to a dominating road win. 10* INDIANAPOLIS -2.5 or -3

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers +4 or +4.5 @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:15 ET - I am much more impressed with the Chargers win over a solid Raiders team last week then the Chiefs big win over a Cardinals team that is a mess right now. Arizona is without suspended WR D'Andre Hopkins right now and that make them a different team in big way. Also, the Cardinals defense was already a concern coming into this season so the wounded offense was going to have to carry them. The Chiefs showed that is not going to happen but now Kansas City faces a much tougher test here. The Chargers showed last week their defense can step up. Also, LA won here at KC last season so that is a confidence boost as well. I don't trust this Chiefs defense. I know the Chargers are without WR Keenan Allen this week but they still have very solid receiving options and I love having the sizable points being offered in this one. Los Angeles has lost the money only 4 times the last 20 times they have been a divisional road dog! Kansas City will be an all-out war here just win this game...let alone win it by 5 or more points! Grab the points in this one! 10* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS +4 or +4.5

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Denver Broncos -6.5 @ Seattle Seahawks @ 8:15 ET - I have said it before and I will say it again here. Generally speaking, the odds makers are the sharpest people around. The Broncos come into this season projected to reach double digits in wins. The Seahawks win total projection is just 5.5 victories. Seattle's odds to win the Super Bowl indicate you have a better chance of taking your money and buying a lottery ticket. The Broncos odds for winning Super Bowl show only 5 teams with lower odds. Those 5 teams entering the season were Bills, Chiefs, Bucs, Packers and Rams. Those 5 teams went 67-17 last season. Pretty elite company, wouldn't you say? Yes, a lot of coaching changes in Denver and a new QB in Russell Wilson but I would not be surprised to see it all click right out of the gate. Love the Broncos defense and they should enjoy success here against a Seahawks offense led by Geno Smith. There is a reason Smith has not been a regular starter in the NFL in about 8 years! That said, I have the better defense (Seattle has regressed a lot on that side of the ball), better offense (Russell Wilson over Geno Smith takes this to elite level of edges), and the better overall team that comes into this season much more confident than a Seattle team that knows the writing is on the wall for a full-on rebuild this season. Not a big fan of laying points on the road but this is one of those very special situations that has "road rout" written all over it. Wilson will not hold back against his former team here. Broncos should enjoy piling it on here. 10* DENVER -6.5

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play UNDER 50.5 in Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:20 ET - Last year's meeting totaled 60 points but the total on this one has been dropping this week and it is with good reason. Both teams have question marks at WR and offensive line. Yes we all know about Dak Prescott and, of course, Tom Brady. Certainly two very strong QB's matched up in this one. But Cowboys lost two of their top wide receivers from last year. Also, another Dallas receiver is injured and will miss this game so you only have Lamb as the one proven WR target for the Cowboys. That said, you can guess who Tampa Bay's secondary will focus on here! The Bucs offense is not looking like a juggernaut entering this season either and the Cowboys defense is a little better than people realize. On the other side of the field, the Bucs defense should thrive under HC Todd Bowles as he was their defensive coordinator the past 3 seasons and helped develop the unit as it made significant strides. With him now taking over as head coach, TB might be a little more defensive-minded and also more conservative on offense - even with Brady under center. The Cowboys allowed an average of just 19 points their final 7 games of last season including the playoff loss to 49ers. The Bucs won 8 of 9 games including post-season action before losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion Rams. They allowed just 17 points per game in that 8-1 run. With both teams a little better defensively than people realize plus each team having some questions on offense, you can see why I like the under here. 10* UNDER 50.5 in Dallas

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Tennessee Titans -5.5 vs New York Giants @ 4:25 ET - Similar to my play on the Bills Thursday, here I am playing on a team that has been so hungry to take the field again after an ultra-disappointing playoff finish. Tennessee earned the #1 seed in the AFC last season yet lost to the Bengals at home in a turnover-filled affair. The Titans have waited a long time to make up for that effort and the Giants will prove to be no match here. New York's Daniel Jones had a solid rookie season but has since had B2B mediocre seasons and will not be able to match Ryan Tannehill for the Titans here. Look at the numbers that Tannehill has produced the last 4 seasons including the last 3 with Tennessee and compare that to what Jones has done the last two seasons. This is a Giants team that has not won more than 6 games in a season since 2016! Yet this line is saying Titans are only a couple points better than New York on a neutral field. I say no way that is the case and I expect Jones' struggles to continue in a tough road environment here and he will be mistake-prone while Tannehill bounces back with a strong effort at home after January's disappointing playoff performance ended the Titans season earlier than expected. I truly like to take points rather than lay points in the NFL generally speaking but this one is just too much of a mismatch as we have the better defense and better overall team and the home field edge. That said, I am looking for a win by at least a full TD here for the Titans. 10* TENNESSEE -5.5

NFL Sunday 8* New Orleans Saints -5 or -5.5 @ Atlanta Falcons @ 1 ET - Coming into this season I really liked the Bills and Saints. I feel if Jameis Winston can stay healthy for New Orleans that the Saints are capable of making noise in the NFC. As for the AFC, we all saw what Buffalo is capable of in their Thursday night domination of the Rams. The point is that even though I am not a big fan of laying points on the road in a divisional match-up in the NFL, I am not going to waver from my strong thoughts about Buffalo and New Orleans entering this season. The Falcons are a really bad team and could end up being the worst team in the league this season. The Saints might contend for the Super Bowl. They have a solid defense and the Falcons defense was horrid last season. Also, now Atlanta has Mariota at QB instead of Ryan. There are going to be some growing pains for this Falcons offense early this season while I expect Winston and the Saints to hit the ground running! 8* NEW ORLEANS -5 or -5.5

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills -2 @ Los Angeles Rams @ 8:20 ET - I feel the Bills are going to be on a mission all season long and it starts tonight in a game they thought they would have in February. Indeed, were it not for a miraculous Chiefs win over the Bills January in a wild one, Buffalo would have met Cincinnati the next week. The way those teams match up, Bills would have prevailed over Bengals - in my opinion - and would have then faced LA in the Super Bowl. So it has been a long wait for the Bills but now they do get their shot at the Rams here in September instead and I fully expect they will make the most of it. Yes, maybe it seems hard to fade the defending champs on their home turf but this Buffalo team is so strong. I also like the fact LA lost some veteran players on defense. The Bills have a very balanced offense. Also, on defense, the Bills were one of the top teams in the league against the pass and Rams rely heavily on the pass on offense. The rushing attack of Los Angeles is not a strength so this match-up favors the Bills too. Great pass protection for Buffalo too so that helps negate a Rams strength of last season - their pass rush. I love this match-up and the hunger of the road team and it is not often you are going to be able to get the Bills at such an affordable price this season. Lay the very small number here and look for the Bills to win by at least a field goal though I truly expect a win by at least a TD here. 10* BUFFALO -2

NFL Super Bowl Sunday 8* Cincinnati Bengals +4.5 vs Los Angeles Rams @ 6:30 ET - All the pressure is really on the Rams here. Los Angeles, under head coach Sean McVay got to the Super Bowl a few years ago and scored a measly 3 points against the Patriots. There is immense pressure on LA to make up for that effort here. In turn, that puts pressure on QB Matthew Stafford and he has been prone to turnovers in the past. Is this the game the turnover bug bites him again? This would not surprise me if it is. The Bengals and QB Joe Burrow come into this game in an entirely different situation. Cincinnati, of course, was not expected to be here. But the fact no one expects anything from them and any win through the post-season was just a bonus, this Bengals team is playing rather loose and relaxed. That said, and with the line move to the 4.5 range, I really like having the points here in a game in which an outright upset would not surprise me in the least. But having the points is truly a solid bonus as the Bengals have only failed to cover twice in their last ten games against teams with a winning record. Cincy has been an ATS covering machine. The Rams last ten games against teams with a winning record has seen them cover only three of the games. Value with the points. We'll take it! 8* CINCINNATI +4.5

NFL ML NFC Game of the Year Sunday 10* Top Play San Francisco 49ers +165 @ Los Angeles Rams @ 6:40 ET - I like the Niners here and feel we will not need any points and the value is with the solid plus money on the money line in this one. San Francisco has played 19 games this season and only 2 of them were losses by 3 or less points. Los Angeles has also played 19 games this season and only 3 of them were wins by 3 or less points. As you can see given those numbers, the odds that the point spread comes into play here are quite slim. That said, I am grabbing the significant plus money. Something tells me this is the game that Stafford's turnover woes resume while Garoppolo continues to excel at QB for San Francisco. The 49ers were 3-5 on the season before they turned their season around after a 31-10 win over the Rams. Then in the rematch against the Rams they were down 17-3 at half but turned it around in the 2nd half for a 27-24 win. That gives even more confidence to the Niners here. As for the Rams, their season was the opposite. LA started the season 7-1 but then went a rather mediocre 5-4 the rest of the way. After beating Tom Brady and the defending Super Bowl champs last week, look for LA to fall flat this week. They will not be flat, don't get me wrong, but I just feel they are facing a SF team that is peaking at the right time and playing with a ton of confidence and seems unflappable right now. 10* SAN FRANCISCO +165

NFL Money Line Game of the Year Sunday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills +110 @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 6:30 ET - The Bills seek revenge for last year's playoff ouster at the hands of KC. Look for last year's playoff experience to help Buffalo a lot in this rematch. The Chiefs were just not quite as strong this season and that is why you are seeing them priced as such a small favorite even though they are at home for this game. With a win here the Bills will host next week's AFC Championship Game because the Titans got knocked out yesterday. This is huge for Buffalo and I feel strongly this is the Bills year to finally get back to the Super Bowl. Buffalo has had only 3 high-scoring losses this season and in the other 15 games, win or lose, the points allowed by the Bills are truly impressive. Buffalo allowed only 13.2 points per game in those 15 games! The Bills have allowed an average of only 15.4 points per game last 5 games overall. Compare all this to a KC team that has allowed 27 points or more in 8 games this season and enters this game having allowed an average of 26.3 points per game last 3 games. The Bills have the added confidence too of having won here in Kansas City earlier this season. The Chiefs go from facing a Pittsburgh team with Roethlisberger on his last legs to facing a Bills team with Allen capable of picking apart opposing defenses. The road team trend in the divisional round continues and no points needed here. 10* BUFFALO +110

NFL Daytime Dominator Sunday 9* Top Play Los Angeles Rams +3 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 3 ET - Do you think the Rams are only 4 points better than the Eagles team that the Bucs just flat out embarrassed last week? Me neither! But that is what this line is telling you as the Rams are +3 this week after the closing line on last week's game was Eagles +7. That is only a 4 point variance and I am not buying it. The odds makers do not intentionally set "trap lines" but this is one that will likely "trap" public bettors as Tom Brady and the defending Super Bowl Champions are only a 3 point favorite on their home turf. The Rams look like a team on a mission after their dismantling of the Cardinals last week and I love their defense. Also, this is not a pedestrian offense for LA like the poor Philly offense with a rookie QB that TB faced last week. Upset alert! 9* LOS ANGELES RAMS +3

NFC Game of the Year NFL 10* Top Play San Francisco 49ers +5.5 @ Green Bay Packers @ 8:15 ET - The 49ers beat a good Cowboys team last week. That was not just about Dallas being bad it was that the Niners are built well for playoff football and they proved that last week. Defensively this team is solid and, oh by the way, San Francisco plays in a division with Arizona and the Rams. LA may have made the Cards look bad last week but the fact is both the Cardinals and Rams are very good teams and finished the regular season with a combined record of 23-11. As for the Packers, they play in a division with the likes of the Vikings, Bears, and Lions. Not only did none of those teams have a winning record, the 3 combined for a 17-33-1 record. Now don't get me wrong, Green Bay is an excellent team. I am just pointing out that they might be a bit over-valued. Also, Green Bay won at San Francisco earlier this season but the Niners lost the turnover battle 2-0. The 49ers actually had 26 first downs compared to only 21 for the Packers. Also, the line in that game was SF -3 and that means the markets considered the teams equal then. Now this game is at Green Bay and the line was as high as a -6 on the Packers. Suddenly GB is now deserving of an extra 3 points compared to the original match-up? The point is that if this line was priced the same was as the original match-up it would be GB -3. This is value. Packers played 17 games this season and only 8 were wins by more than 3 points which means 9 were not! You get my point. The Niners have now played 18 games and only 5 were losses by more than 3 points which means, of course, the other 13 games were not! I just look for a very tightly contested game quite possibly decided by 3 points and whether SF wins or GB wins I don't care as long as the margin is slim like that. The fact is though I sense an upset here. The Niners allowed 17 points per game last 6 games. GB, not including meaningless season finale in which they did not care, did enter that contest having allowed 26 points per game last 6 games. The better D and a very confident group will be able to get the upset here but I am grabbing the points for added insurance. 10* SAN FRANCISCO +5.5

NFL Daytime Dominator 9* Top Play Tennessee Titans -3.5 vs Cincinnati Bengals @ 4:30 ET - Huge rest edge here for Tennessee off the bye week while Cincinnati was in action for wild card weekend. Give the Bengals credit as they got it done last week and are elated to have finally won a playoff game after a 3-decade stretch without notching a post-season win. That said, Cincinnati has already achieved something and there was a lot of celebrating last week. However, now they are facing a much different animal. The Titans are not the Raiders...not even close. Playing a playoff game on the road instead of at home...not even close. The point is that Joe Burrow and the Bengals are in for a rude awakening going on the road and facing one of the top teams in the league and one with a good amount of playoff experience on its roster. Look for this to turn into a blowout as Cincinnati perfectly fits the mode of a "one and done" in terms of how they are built for a post-season run. They just don't have the ground game on offense that the hosts have and now those hosts getting back Derrick Henry at RB this week too. 9* TENNESSEE 

NFL Game of the Month Monday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals +4 @ Los Angeles Rams @ 8:15 ET - The road team won both meetings in the regular season. Rams on a 2-4 ATS run in home games. Cardinals were 8-1 SU and ATS in road games. Los Angeles known for playoff disappointment. I also like Murray over Stafford at the QB spot as the latter has been a little turnover-prone of late and the former is such a dangerous playmaker. The Cards are offering line value here because there is a lot of anti-Arizona sentiment based on their late season fade but a lot of that had to do with some injury issues that have since improved. Other than the split against Arizona, Los Angeles went just 1-4 SU in games against teams that ended up in the playoffs this season. Also, the Rams had a pair of wins against two other teams (Colts and Ravens) that came by margins of just 3 and 1, respectively. The point is that there is a lot of value with grabbing the points here in my opinion and an outright upset would certainly not surprise me in the least. 10* ARIZONA +4

NFL Wild Card Total of the Year Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 46 in Kansas City Chiefs vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:15 ET - Decent football weather expected for this one with no precipitation, temperatures right around freezing and winds around a moderate 10 mph. Both offenses will have the playbooks wide open for this one. Now I know that the Steelers offense has struggled but the way I see this game playing out is the Chiefs getting a big lead and then we're going to see some extra scoring in garbage time for sure. Just like Big Ben had a big game in his final home game of his career two weeks ago, the Steelers also want to give him a good send off here and everyone will likely be doing their part in that regard. That means more points than you would likely expect from the Steelers here. Keep in mind, the Chiefs have allowed at least 24 points in 3 of last 4 games and that is part of the reason the over trend is 5-0 last 5 Kansas City games. Also, about that Steelers defense, it has not traveled well. Pittsburgh has allowed 33.4 points per game in last 5 road games. The Chiefs are favored by about two touchdowns here and given the above numbers and the situation with Roethlisberger airing it out in this game I feel certain, look for a 35-21 or 38-24 type game here. This should fly over as a 6th straight KC game tops the number. 10* OVER 46 in Kansas City

NFL Contrarian Crusher Sunday 10* Top Play San Francisco 49ers +3 @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:30 ET - You all likely know the traditional factor of a home team generally having a factor of 3 points in the line in the NFL. That said, this line is saying that these teams are equal even though Dallas finished 12-5 and won their division while the 49ers barely made the playoffs! San Francisco's 10-7 record placed them 3rd in their 4 team division. With all this said, you know where that places me on this game. When something does not look right most will just line up on that side where they feel there is a mistake and now they miraculously have some gift from the odds makers. It just does not work that way folks. Many may be enticed to play Dallas at home -3 here but in typical contrarian fashion I am on the other side of the public in this one. The Cowboys went only 5-3 at home this season and the Niners went 6-3 on the road. Also, SF won 7 of last 9 games and Dallas - other than 2 wins against Eagles in divisional battles - went 1-4 in games against playoff teams. This is another game where all the pressure is on the home favorite. In fact, the expectation is that if Cowboys don't make a run in this post-season there will be some coaching staff shake-ups. This is a lot of pressure on a team and Dallas has never been known for handling pressure well. Upset alert! 10* SAN FRANCISCO +3

NFL Earliest Dominator Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles +8 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 1 ET - The big underdog Eagles getting some help from mother nature in this one as very windy conditions expected in Tampa for this one. This could limit the passing games a bit and when you compare the running games of these teams the Eagles certainly hold the big edge. Since Philadelphia went to their heavy ground attack, that is when the team has flourished. Prior to their loss in a season-ending finale that had no meaning to them (guys sat, etc) Philly had won 7 of 9 games. Of course the Buccaneers are the defending Super Bowl champs and finished the season red hot so I am not saying the Eagles win this outright of course. I am simply saying that getting more than a TD is offering great value here. Before their blowout win over the Panthers in the season finale, only 5 of Tampa Bay's last 14 games were Bucs wins by more than a TD! The Eagles know they must get after Brady in this game and between the wind and QB pressure, I think Tom Brady and Company will be held in check more than usual in this game. The "we have nothing to lose" Eagles come into this game loose and relaxed knowing nothing is expected of them while all the pressure is on Brady and Company as one of the Super Bowl favorites. Glad to grab the big points here. 8* PHILADELPHIA +8

AFC East Game of the Year Saturday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills -4.5 vs New England Patriots @ 8:15 ET - The Patriots could be hosting this game but they instead went 1-3 their last 4 games. The Bills could be on the road for this game but instead they got the job done and went 4-0 last 4 games. Also, the experience of last year's post-season run for Buffalo and QB Josh Allen is huge. Allen had a 5-1 TD-INT ratio in last year's playoff run and that included a 3-0 ratio at home. Now he and the Bills take on a rookie QB Mac Jones making his first ever playoff start and it is on the road and it is in frigid conditions for a QB who played his college ball at Alabama. As for Allen, he played his college ball in Wyoming and certainly is no stranger to cold weather games. It will be frigid at Orchard Park Saturday and Allen and the Bills stay hot and make it 5 straight SU wins and, along the way, they get the cover too! 10* BUFFALO -4.5

NFL Daytime Dominator Sunday 8* Las Vegas Raiders +6.5 @ Cincinnati Bengals @ 4:30 ET - Waiting has paid off as this line has moved back toward the Bengals now. We are seeing some +6 with a plus money price and even some +6.5 are now out there. Anyway, is now about 5 hours before kickoff so I don't want to hold off any longer because I don't think we are going to see any 7's show up on this one but we definitely have value with the big dog here in my opinion. All the pressure is on a Bengals team that is on an 0-8 SU run in the post-season and has not won a playoff game in 3 decades! Cincinnati is favored and feels the pressure to win here. The Raiders come into this game loose and relaxed plus on a 4-game winning streak. This is the perfect recipe for a dangerous dog situation! That is what I see here is an underdog that has been playing with an "us against the world" mentality for 4 straight weeks now and I look for them to at least get the cover even if their SU winning streak does finally come to an end. I don't trust the Bengals laying this many points in this situation and would not be surprised to see this game decided by a margin of only 3 or 4 points. 8* LAS VEGAS +6.5

NFL GAME OF THE YEAR Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 @ Las Vegas Raiders @ 8:20 ET - Win and you are in! So this one pretty clear cut in terms of its magnitude for the post-season. That said, the winner is going to be the road team in my opinion and don't be fooled by the fact that the home team is an underdog here. Yes the Raiders have won 3 straight games but we will take a closer look at that 3-game win streak right after I remind you that Las Vegas had lost 5 of 6 before that 3-game run! So about those 3 wins, they faced a Colts team that got QB Wentz out of covid protocol essentially right before the game and it showed as Indy had their lowest yardage output of the season but clearly they were not ready for the game. The week before that the Raiders beat a Broncos team without QB Bridgewater and Denver was struggling on offense without him. The week before that LV beat a Browns team that was down to 3rd string QB and dealing with a covid mess. The point is that the Raiders got a ton of breaks during this 3-game winning streak and they had lost 5 of 6 before the string of good luck. Their luck runs out here as they face a QB that picked them apart in first meeting and is raring to go for the rematch as well. The Raiders finally face a healthy #1 QB and a rather healthy team overall that also is playing with a ton of motivation. The Chargers last 3 ROAD games against teams that are all now going to the playoffs were all wins and came by a combined score of 98 to 70. I look for another big road win here as the Raiders have had a season marred by off the field issues and problems and simply got lucky to even be in this spot. This is the week their luck has run out as this Las Vegas team - take a close look at them - simply does not have the look of a playoff team. The road favorite proves that on the field tonight! 10* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS -2.5

NFC West Total of the Year Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 48 in Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks @ 4:25 ET - The Seahawks and Cardinals each off huge wins. Seattle, of course, eliminated from playoffs but they are out to prove things with Russell Wilson at the controls and it showed in their 51-29 win over Detroit last week. They can prevent Arizona from even having a chance at the NFC West title by knocking them off here so you know they are going to pull out all the stops in that regard. However, the Cards are going to be tough to stop on their home turf and coming off the key 25-22 win over the Cowboys last week. That sets this one up nicely as far as turning into a high-scoring shootout! Arizona will take advantage of a Seahawks team that has allowed an average of 27 points per game last two weeks even though they faced bad teams from NFC North and the games were in Seattle! At the same time, the Seahawks will enjoy success as this is an offense that has had just one bad game the last five games and averaged 34.5 points in the other 4 games. The over is 4-1 in Seattle's last 5 games and I expect another one here. 10* OVER 48 in Arizona

NFL Daytime Dominator Sunday 8* Indianapolis Colts -14 @ Jacksonville Jaguars @ 1 ET - The Colts need a win for the playoffs and the Jaguars need a loss for the top pick in the NFL draft. Look for both teams to punch their ticket! The Colts are 6-0 ATS last 6 road games! The Jaguars are 0-7 ATS last 7 games overall. This line falling into the -14 range makes Indianapolis worthy of investment here. The Colts should absolutely annihilate a Jags team that is again the laughingstock of the NFL. Supposedly some Jacksonville fans will show up dressed as clowns for this game as that is how far things have fallen for Jags. You have to feel sorry for Trevor Lawrence getting into this mess after all his success at QB at a powerhouse CFB program like Clemson. That said, QB Carson Wentz and head coach Frank Reich are coming off the Colts worst yardage performance of the season in last week's loss to the bad defense of the Raiders. They simply overlooked them and now they take out their frustration on a bad Jags team. This one gets very ugly and I know the line is big but you can see per the stats (6-0 ATS, 0-7 ATS) above that it is 100% justified and I am expecting a win by at least a 3 TD margin here. 8* INDIANAPOLIS -14

NFL Daytime Dominator Saturday 10* Top Play Denver Broncos +11 vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 4:30 ET - The Chiefs can still get to the #1 seed in the AFC if they simply win this game and the Titans lose Sunday. While the former has a good chance (though I expect a tight game) the latter is highly improbable as Tennessee is also a double digit favorite this weekend since they are facing the Texans. Mentally, the Chiefs are not in the right frame of mind for a blowout win here. They blew their chance at the #1 seed by losing to the Bengals last week. There will be some carryover effect from that loss into this game. Also, KC's biggest concern here has to be staying healthy. The Broncos, on the other hand, have no such concerns here and I expect them to be flying all over the field with aggression as they host a long-time division rival that has had their number for about 5 or 6 seasons in a row now. Yes, the Broncos have a tough QB situation but this team is highly motivated here, will be going hard at home in this one, and can throw caution to the wind in an all-out effort to finish the season with a win over a hated division rival. I will grab the big points here as I expect this game to be decided by just a single score. Chiefs need to stay healthy. They know their chances of the #1 seed are very slim and it is better to avoid injury here. 10* DENVER +11

AFC North Game of the Year Monday NFL 10* Top Play Cleveland Browns +3 @ Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:15 ET - The Browns are eliminated from playoff contention while the Steelers remain alive with a win tonight though they would also have to win plus get unlikely help next week. The point is that Pittsburgh is playing with playoff pressure while Cleveland is not. The Browns have now gone from being a 3-point favorite to a 3-point dog in this one. The line swing of about a full TD is simply too much. Keep in mind, the Steelers are a rival for Cleveland. Just as their playoff hopes were squelched yesterday, the Browns would love nothing more than to end Pittsburgh's playoff hopes tonight. There is no pressure to do so but they would love to do it. So you have a road team playing loose and relaxed and hungry for an elimination win over a rival. You have a host that has not even scored a first-half touchdown in ANY of their last FIVE games and is playing with playoff pressure here. The Steelers are a bit lucky they are even 2-3 SU in their last five games and I look for them to struggle to score points again in this one. The Browns will deliver a "shocker" tonight as Pittsburgh is the team that needs to win but, to this day, the betting markets have just never fully gotten a grasp on this. The reaction is that if a team needs to win it will win and that is just not how this stuff works. This is particularly true in a rivalry game. I'll happily take the points in this one! 10* CLEVELAND +3

NFL Game of the Week Sunday 10* Top Play Minnesota Vikings +13 @ Green Bay Packers @ 8:20 PM ET - Frigid temperatures expected for this one and it is a divisional battle and it is just too many points in my opinion. Even though Vikings are with their #2 QB, Mannion can be a good game manager and I am expecting a huge game from RB Cook in this one. The Packers should still win this game but I expect it to be by a margin closer to the original 1 TD line on this game not two TDs! The home team has won just twice in last five meetings between these divisional foes and the two wins by the host were each by 5 or less points! Green Bay has won 4 in a row but all but 1 were by 8 or less points! The Vikings have played 15 games this season and not one of them have been a loss by more than 8 points! That means if you had the Vikes +13 in all games this season you would be a perfect 15-0! Happy to test that edge here! 10* MINNESOTA +13

NFC Total of the Year Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 41 in Seattle Seahawks vs Detroit Lions @ 4:25 ET - Late in the season I like to look for overs in games involving teams going nowhere. When you have teams eliminated from playoff contention you generally have teams disinterested in terms of having a lot of defensive intensity on the field. I am also a contrarian and with somewhat ugly weather expected in Seattle Sunday afternoon I will gladly go against public perception and take the over with the low total being offered. Yes I know that Stafford is out at QB for the Lions in this one but that means Boyle gets a 2nd straight start and that will help him here. Also, Russell Wilson still would like to go out with a bang this season and I expect a big game here in the 2nd to last week of the regular season. No holding back here for either QB as neither team has anything to worry about as there is no playoff pressure. Note that Detroit had scored 29 or more in 2 of last 3 games before their 20-16 loss last week. The Seahawks have scored 24 or more in 3 of last 4 games and all 3 of those efforts resulted in an over. Look for another one here! 10* OVER 41 in Seattle

NFL PA Dominator Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 @ Washington Football Team @ 1 ET - The Eagles dominated Washington in their game last month much more than the 27-17 final would indicated. Philadelphia outgained them by 282 yards so the final score could have been much worse! Now Washington enters this game off an ultra-embarrassing loss to the rival Cowboys. A performance like that against a rival is an indication of a football club that has quit on the season. That said, I look for the Eagles to pound the Football Team again in this one and we have good line value here because Philly is on the road. If they were at home they would be laying double digits but on the road it is keeping this line in the -4.5 range and each of the Eagles last 6 wins have been by 10 or more points. As for Washington, each of their last 8 losses have been by 7 or more points. Lay the number with the road team in this one! 8* PHILADELPHIA

NFL Primetime Thrasher Monday NFL 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints +3.5 vs Miami Dolphins @ 8:15 ET - Ian Book of the Saints is scheduled to make his first ever NFL start and, in the eyes of the betting marketplace, that means the Dolphins win this game. I disagree. It is not as if Book has never played on the big stage as he played his College Football at Notre Dame! This guy is use to big game settings and also this game is at home. Having the support of the home fans will certainly help Book. Also, New Orleans is a solid team battling to stay alive in the playoff race and they are catching value here because the Dolphins have been on a winning streak. Keep in mind, two of those six Miami wins were over a Jets team that is 4-11 and another one was over a Giants team that is 4-11 and also Houston is 4-11 and Carolina is 5-10. So of the 6 wins in their win streak, 5 were against combined current records of 21-54 (counting Jets record twice). I am just not sold on this Miami team and only one of those 6 wins was on the road and prior to that road win the Dolphins had lost 4 straight games when away from home. 10* NEW ORLEANS +3.5

NFL Primetime Punisher Sunday 10* Top Play Washington Football Team +9.5 @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - Washington gets Taylor Heinicke back at QB for this game. This is a rivalry game. Washington swept the Cowboys last season but now has revenge from a loss at home versus Dallas two weeks ago. The Football Team now in a little better shape from the covid that had impacted their roster recently. Also, the road team is a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in the last 4 Cowboys games. Also, Dallas is 1-2 SU and ATS last 3 home games. The road team gets the money in this one. The set up is perfect, everyone is on the Dallas bandwagon now after their big road trip and now, as per usual, the Cowboys return to Jerry's World and disappoint. Look for the Cowboys to win but not cover as I expect this to be a tight game decided by a one-score margin. Look for a huge game from Heinicke in this one and the Cowboys get caught looking ahead to Arizona in a tough match-up in this one. 10* WASHINGTON +9.5

NFL AFC Total of the Month Sunday 10* Top Play UNDER 45.5 in Kansas City Chiefs vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 4:25 ET - Mild weather in Kansas City for this one but driven by strong south winds. That said, the wind should be enough to limit the passing attacks here and I expect a bit of a low-scoring grinder in this one. The Chiefs on a 7-game winning streak and off a high-scoring win at LA against the Chargers but had allowed only 11 points per game in the first 6 victories in the streak. The Steelers have allowed 19 points or less in 2 of last 3 games. Pittsburgh's defense has had some issues at times this season but considering the magnitude of this game in the playoff race I look for the D to deliver another strong game here and the Chiefs defense resumes their recent domination as well. Couple those factors with the potential wind issue here and we should see a bit of a grinders. 10* UNDER 45.5 in Kansas City

NFL Earliest Cash Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles -10.5 vs New York Giants @ 1 ET - The Eagles will take advantage of facing a QB making his first ever NFL start against a division rival hungry for a playoff berth. Also, Jake Fromm on the road for this start. I know the line looks big but the Eagles are 7 wins this season have featured 6 by a double digit margin with those 6 wins having an average victory margin of 19.5 points per game. In other words, don't let the big line keep you away from this one. The Giants are a bit of a mess right now and firing the offensive coordinator has not helped. New York is still struggling. The Giants have lost 10 of 14 games this season and 6 of their last 7 losses have been by 11 or more points! In fact, those 6 defeats have come by an average margin of 18.8 points per game. This one gets ugly! 8* PHILADELPHIA -10.5

NFL Primetime Punisher NFL 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts +2.5 @ Arizona Cardinals @ 8:15 ET - The Cardinals have lost back to back games and 3 straight home games! Not much home field edge here for Arizona. As for the Colts, they are one of the hottest teams around with going 8-3 last 11 games! Indianapolis is off a key win over the Patriots but they will not let up here and the key is they also had a bye week before facing New England. The Colts are the fresher team and hotter and they are still chasing the Titans for the top spot in the division so, again, no letdown here! The Colts have covered 9 of last 11 road games and I will take the points here but don't expect to need them as Arizona is starting to doubt themselves. B2B losses and 3 straight defeats at home...the doubts are creeping in on this team and this Colts team is even better than their full season record indicates. Keep in mind they started the season a poor 0-3 so they have come a long way since then. 10* INDIANAPOLIS +2.5

NFL Afternoon Thrasher Saturday 8* Cleveland Browns +7.5 @ Green Bay Packers @ 4:30 ET - The Browns are consistently involved in close games. 6 of their last 8 games decided by 6 or less points! Looking at the Packers last 7 games only 2 of them were GB wins by more than 8 points. Green Bay is off a win over Baltimore while Cleveland is off a loss to the Raiders. Packers have a rest edge here but it is not a big one and the Browns off a loss looks very attractive here. Cleveland has won 5 of 6 games when off a loss and I look for them to again avoid a losing streak here as they bounce back after the loss to Las Vegas last week. We have a cushion to work with here as we are getting 7.5 points so I am speaking about an ATS win here. Loss by 7 or less for the Browns if they don't manage the outright upset. I look for this game to be a tight one decided by a one-score margin. 8* CLEVELAND +7.5

NFL Thursday Thrasher 10* Top Play Tennessee Titans +3 vs San Francisco 49ers @ 8:20 ET - The Titans are off a loss at Pittsburgh but they nearly doubled up the Steelers in yardage. Tennessee was simply done in by turnovers in that game and this is helping to give us line value here. Keep in mind this Titans team has beaten the Colts twice this season plus the Chiefs, Rams, and Bills. Tennessee can beat anybody on any given Sunday and love them in this spot as a home dog against an over-valued 49ers team! 10* TENNESSEE +3

NFL PA Dominator Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 vs Washington Football Team @ 7 ET - The Eagles are rested off a bye week and also much healthier both on the injury front and in terms of covid issues as you compare these two teams heading into this one. That said, I like the Eagles to roll big at home. Philly finally gets a chance to give Washington some payback as they had won 6 in a row from 2017 to 2019 but then lost both meetings last season. Now it is time for the Eagles to resume the domination and their ground game and better health status and the home field edge will all be key factors as they pull away for the double digit win here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -6.5

NFL Early Blowout Tuesday 9* Top Play Seattle Seahawks +7 @ Los Angeles Rams @ 7 ET - Just too many points now that Seattle has gotten healthier and is playing a little better. The Rams are a quality team but so many times they disappoint and you know the Seahawks are going to bring their "A game" here and that means we should see quite the ball game here. This one likely to go down to the wire and an outright upset would not surprise me in the least. That said, we have excellent line value here with the +7 on this one. The Seahawks off B2B wins and though they have 8 losses this season 4 of those were by 3 or less points. The Rams are of B2B wins and covers but had lost 5 straight ATS prior to that. LA appears overvalued here and the road dog gets it done. 9* SEATTLE +7

NFL NFC North Game of the Year Monday 10* Top Play Chicago Bears +6.5 vs Minnesota Vikings @ 8:15 ET - I am aware of the Bears having injury/covid issues which has been particularly impacting to their secondary. However, other players for Chicago will step up as needed and let's not forget that Vikings QB Kirk Cousins is just 1-9 SU in Monday Night games. I know not all of that falls on him but it is still a stat that is hard to ignore and now here the Vikings have to win by 7 or more to beat us. I'll grab the big home dog points. You know the Bears are going to bring it in a divisional game like this at Soldier Field. Also, Chicago has won 5 of last 6 meetings between these divisional foes. The Vikings enter this game on a run that, for me, just makes it tough to trust them at all as a favorite. Minnesota nearly blew last week's huge lead versus Pittsburgh as the Vikings defense has now allowed 30.5 points per game last 4 games. Before getting blown out at Green Bay last week, a loss fueled by turnovers, the Packers had allowed only 17 points per game in their 3 divisional games this season. They will bounce back here and the Bears have allowed only 17 points per game in their last 4 games against the Vikes. Typical contrarian angle for me here as the whole world is looking at the situation with the Bears secondary but there is much more to this game than just that aspect and the hungry home dog finds a way to overcome the adversity. 10* CHICAGO +6.5

NFL Contrarian Crusher 9* Top Play Cleveland Browns -3 vs Las Vegas Raiders @ 5 ET - Long-time followers know that I am a contrarian in my handicapping. Most will be lining up on the Raiders here because it was the Browns with all the covid issues. But that means bettors are overlooking the fact that Las Vegas has lost 5 of 6 games and has had a very rough season due to all the off the field distractions. Even if Baker Mayfield can't go for the Browns or Case Keenum could not go then Nick Mullens, solid NFL experience with 49ers, would likely get the call here. Either way I like the fact that we get the Browns at home just favored by the typical 3 points assigned for home field advantage. I say that because the markets are implying these teams are equal and I just don't think they are right now. The moving of the game from Saturday to Monday has allowed the Browns to get healthier and they will get it done in this one and improve to 6-2 in home games this season. 9* CLEVELAND

NFL NFC South Game of the Year Sunday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints +11.5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:20 PM ET - The Buccaneers are over-valued here. The Saints have owned this series, last season's playoff loss notwithstanding, for quite some time and actually are a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS last 7 regular season meetings. Now I am certainly not saying they will win this game outright but I do expect them to keep this game very competitive throughout. Yes, last week's win was against "only" the Jets but it also was a game in which the Saints got back some key players on offense and that showed in the results. I am well aware the Bucs are the more talented team in this match-up but they continue to be overvalued. Keep in mind a few weeks ago they looked like they would not cover the 3.5 versus Colts but then Fournette got a late TD run when really they were just trying to set up winning field goal. Then last week they were very fortunate to beat the Bills let alone cover the 3.5 as every late break went their way and, again, it was a long late TD run when setting up for FG would have won it. This Bucs team could easily (and should) be just 5-8 ATS this season and the Saints have been a road covering machine and a divisional covering machine in recent seasons and that continues here. Just too many points to give a respectable team like New Orleans even though they are a different team without Winston at QB. Look for Hill to continue to give opponents trouble with his running ability and look for another big game from RB Kamara here as his return last week was big for this team. 10* NEW ORLEANS +11.5

NFL Total of the Month Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 43.5 in Baltimore Ravens vs Green Bay Packers @ 4:25 ET - Not only is there a chance Lamar Jackson might play, bone bruise rather than ankle sprain, there is no denying that Tyler Huntley has played quite well in his last two appearances for this Ravens offense as his back-up. Either way I like the over a ton in this spot. Baltimore is off an over at Cleveland and, though their most recent home game was an under, the Ravens preceding 4 game stretch of home games went 3-1 to the over. The Packers have a QB by the name of Aaron Rodgers you might have heard of! In all seriousness, Rodgers can break down defenses with the best of him and Green Bay enters this game on a 3-0 run to the over the last 3 games! The Pack has scored an average of 37.3 ppg during this stretch but also allowed 30.7 points per game and I look for this one to be a very entertaining affair. Also, from a weather standpoint, if this game was an early game the winds might be an issue but as it is played toward evening hours the winds are expected to be subsiding by then and really be no issue at all in this one. 10* OVER 43.5 in Baltimore

NFL Earliest Cash Sunday 8* New York Giants +12 vs Dallas Cowboys @ 1 ET - The Cowboys are over-priced here even though the Giants will again be without QB Daniel Jones. New York is on a 7-2 ATS run against divisional foes. You know this team is going to be "up" for hosting the division leaders as well. About hosting, note that the Giants are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS their last 3 games at home! Now, I am not saying they will win this game outright but I am saying they should keep this one to a single digit margin. The Cowboys are 9-4 SU this season but only 3 of those games have been Dallas wins by more than 10 points. This one likely decided by a single score as I see it! 8* NEW YORK GIANTS +12

NFL Saturday Slaughter - 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts -2 vs New England Patriots @ 8:20 ET - The Patriots are 6-0 on the road this season and the Colts are 3-4 at home this season. Why is Indianapolis favored here? Exactly! At the end of the day, the odds makers are the sharpest people around long-term. Sure things fluctuate from day to day and week to week and month to month but those guys are extremely good at what they do. The point here is, don't let the line fool you. Many will be piling up on a New England team that has won 7 straight games but the Colts are the play here. Of the Pats road wins, they faced the Bills in a windstorm that completely changed the complexion of that game. Their other road wins are against the 8-6 Chargers but then 4 teams that are a combined 16-36 on the season! In other words, this is going to be a tougher test than most anything that the Pats have faced on the road this season. Colts hungry to make a statement at home. 10* INDIANAPOLIS 

NFL Thursday Thrasher - 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers +3 vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:20 ET - The Chiefs have been hot but they faced a fading Raiders team twice during this 6-game win streak. They also faced a Giants team that is now 4-9 and faced the Packers when they were without Aaron Rodgers. The Chiefs also benefited from 3 turnovers in their wins over the Cowboys and Broncos and actually were outgained 404 to 267 by Denver in that deceiving 22-9 win. Give KC credit for getting all these wins but the point is that there has been some good fortune in there too. Now facing the #2 team in their division that can tie them in the standings with a win on Thursday, Chiefs are in for a real challenge here. I like the Chargers a lot as a home dog here. Both these teams have strong passing offenses but the key could be the pass defense here. Based on yardage allowed, the pass defense of LA far superior to that of KC on the season. The home team wins the air battle here in this one and, in doing so, also wins the game. 10* LA CHARGERS +3

NFL NFC West Game of the Year - NFL 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams +2.5 @ Arizona Cardinals @ 8:15 ET - The Jaguars were just what the doctor ordered for the Rams! Last week's blowout win by 30 over Jacksonville was exactly what Los Angeles needed. Building momentum off that huge victory I look for LA to come up big again here. Yes, they lost to the Cardinals earlier this season at home but the Rams got the series sweep both SU and ATS each of the two prior seasons. Also, the bad news for the Cards here is that this game is at home. All kidding aside, the fact is that the road team is 5-0 SU/ATS in the Cardinals last 5 games! I look for that trend to continue here as LA is not happy at all about the way the first game between these teams this season played out. They will respond big here. The Rams are two games behind Arizona in the NFC West standings but after tonight there are still 4 games to go in the regular season and LA can move within 1 game of the Cardinals with a win tonight. Look for them to get it as they resume their series dominance plus make it 6 in a row in terms of road team victories in Cards games. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS +2.5

NFL NFC North Total of the Year Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 43 in Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears @ 8:20 ET - Decent weather expected for this one with winds near 10 mph, no precipitation and temperatures in the mid-30s. Not bad at all by mid-December Green Bay standards. Also, quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers and Justin Fields both expected to start for their respective teams in this one. I know the Bears offense does not excite but Fields was showing some promise with the way he was playing before he ended up out for a few games. His running ability also makes thing tough on defenses. As for Rodgers he often comes up huge in the big game settings and I look for him to do the same in this Sunday night. The Packers are averaging 28 points per game at home this season and are off a bye week which followed GB averaging 33.5 points the prior two games. The Bears have gone over the total in 3 of last 5 games and did score at least 22 points in all 3 of those games. Chicago has allowed 29 points or more in 4 of last 6 games. The Packers have averaged 33.3 points in last 3 games versus Bears and I expect another big effort here in that regard but something tells me the visitors are going to respond huge with getting a boost of momentum with Fields back under center and this game will surprise many by getting into the 50+ range for total points scored. 10* OVER 43 in Green Bay

NFL Non-Conf Game of the Month Sunday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills +3.5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 4:25 ET - The Bills are on short rest this week and the Bucs have regular rest. I certainly understand that factor. However, the fact Buffalo lost at home Monday versus the Patriots and they are 4-0 SU/ATS this season when off a loss has me liking the Bills a ton in this spot. Buffalo won those 4 games by a combined score of 137 to 34 says a lot. No, this game will not be a blowout like that but the point is the Bills respond very well off losses and I like them to at least get the cover in this one. Keep in mind, Buffalo has only lost the money once in last dozen games as a road dog and also they have covered all but 1 of last 10 in non-conference action. Tampa Bay has won and covered 3 in a row but this team was 3-6 ATS on the season prior to that. The Bills have the much better pass defense and rushing offense and I look for both of those factors to help lead the way to a road cover, if not outright win, in this one! 10* BUFFALO +3.5

NFL Earliest Cash Sunday 8* Washington Football Team +5 vs Dallas Cowboys @ 1 ET - Washington has won and covered 4 in a row overall plus they are at home for this one. They beat Dallas in both meetings last season and are playing with a lot of confidence and momentum right now. The Cowboys had failed, both SU and ATS, in 3 of last 4 before the win over the Saints last week. I know Dallas has a little rest edge coming into this one since they last played on Thursday but the Football Team is really starting to believe they can make a run for post-season and absolutely have a shot at 5 in a row here and can narrow gap with Cowboys. Keep in mind they face them again at Dallas in two weeks. Huge game today and value with the home dog. 8* WASHINGTON +5

NFL Thursday Thrasher - 10* Top Play OVER 43.5 in Minnesota Vikings vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:20 ET - The Steelers are off a key divisional win versus Baltimore where their defense had to give a tremendous effort. Now it is a short week situation for them and they may struggle to slow down the Vikings on the road here. The over is 2-0 in Pittsburgh's last two road games. The over is 3-0 in Minnesota's last 3 games overall. While I do fully expect the Vikes to score well here (Dalvin Cook is expected to be ready to go here), I do not trust this Minny defense at all. The Vikings off a disheartening last second loss to the Lions. Note that Minnesota has now allowed 28 points or more in 3 straight games and 5 of their last 7. Pittsburgh has allowed 27 points or more in 3 of last 4 road games and the Steelers gave up 41 in each of last two road games! 10* OVER 43.5 in Minnesota

NFL ESPN Blowout - 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills -2.5 vs New England Patriots @ 8:15 ET - The weather is going to be quite bad tonight in terms of winds which is going to make the ground game more important in this one. Statistically, both teams are solid in terms of running the ball but in terms of rush defense the Bills rate much better. That plus home field could make a huge difference in this game. Also, in terms of cold weather familiarity and dealing with blustery winds, Bills QB Josh Allen played his college ball at Wyoming while Mac Jones played at Alabama. These couple keys I just mentioned may seem like minor ones but they do carry some weight here and can be a difference maker in a key divisional battle like this. The Patriots have certainly been the hotter team of late but I like the Bills in this one at home and looking to make up for the embarrassing effort against the Colts the last time they played here at Orchard Park. 10* BUFFALO -2.5

NFL SNF Blowout - 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 vs Denver Broncos @ 8:20 ET - This looks like the perfect spot for the Chiefs to put it all together. They are facing a rival they typically dominate. They are coming off a bye week. They have won 4 straight. Speaking of 4 straight wins, Kansas City has won last 4 meetings with Broncos by sweeping them each of past two seasons. The Chiefs beat Denver by an average margin of 19.3 points in those 4 wins. I know the Sunday Night pointspread may seem a little steep but don't let it scare you away. Remember, before last week's Broncos win Denver lost by 17 at home versus the Eagles. Also, the Chiefs have played the tougher schedule this season thusfar in comparison with Denver as KC has had games against Buffalo, Tennessee, and Green Bay. This game is priced high for a season and I expect a huge game from Mahomes with the advantage of the added prep time and I look for the Chiefs defense to really get after Bridgewater in this one. The KC defense will have their ears pinned back and they have allowed 17 or less points in 5 of last 6 games. More of the same here. 10* KANSAS CITY

NFL AFC North Total of the Year - 10* Top Play OVER 44 in Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens @ 4:25 ET - Decent weather expected in Pittsburgh considering it is December. Even though this is a rivalry game, 3 of the last 4 have gone over the total. I am expecting big games from Roethlisberger and Jackson in this one. Both signal-callers were a part of turnover-filled games last week and both guys are fully capable of huge bounce back efforts here. Ben has a 14-6 TD-INT ratio this season and Lamar is also an NFL MVP. Jackson will bounce back in a key big game here and same for Big Ben. The over is 5-2 in the Steelers last 7 games and I look for that trend to continue here. The Ravens have a dangerous ground game and Pittsburgh struggles to stop the run. Both teams can air it out and I expect that to be the case in this game as well. This is just one of those rare situations where you have two strong QB's both in a bounce back situation and both i a huge game and the way all this fell with this scheduling situation and the solid weather too, all factors came together for a big play here. 10* OVER 44 in Pittsburgh

NFL Earliest Rout - 8* Philadelphia Eagles -5 @ New York Jets @ 1 ET - This line dropped significantly because of QB Hurts is expected to miss this game and Minshew will get the call. Minshew has 2 seasons in the NFL under his belt and threw for 37 touchdowns against 11 interceptions and he played those two years for a Jacksonville team that went a combined 7-25. Read that sentence again. Do you see my point? He played for a bad team and yet put up some incredible numbers. I just do not think this is even worthy of a drop in the line. Philly is off a frustrating loss to the Giants and will bounce back huge against a very bad Jets team. Note that the Jets are off a win but over a bad Houston team and, prior to this, they had lost 8 of 10 games and all but one of those losses were by 7 or more points. The Eagles had won 3 of 4 before the loss to the Giants and all 3 wins were by double digits. I expect this victory will also be by 10+ points. Lay it. 8* PHILADELPHIA -5

NFL Thursday Thrasher - 10* Top Play Dallas Cowboys -5.5 @ New Orleans Saints @ 8:20 ET - Good news for Cowboys fans is that this game is not in Dallas. All kidding aside, the fact is that Dallas was 4-0 ATS in road games this season before that recent ugly loss at Kansas City. The Cowboys have had some recent struggles but this passing attack is averaging nearly 300 yards per game this season and I just don't think the Saints can keep up here. Taysom Hill is back at QB for New Orleans this week but what makes him dangerous is his running ability and he is coming back from a foot injury. I don't 100% trust Hill in the passing game and the Saints are averaging less than 200 yards passing per game on the season. New Orleans also is a poor 1-3 SU and ATS in games played in the Superdome this season. They struggle again here and the Cowboys take out some anger and frustration after suffering back to back losses for the first time this season. Look for the Saints to drop their 5th in a row SU and I am confident that the road favorite can win this by 7 or more for the all important cover. 10* DALLAS -5.5

NFL Primetime Punisher - 10* Top Play Seattle Seahawks +1 @ Washington Football Team @ 8:15 ET - Russell Wilson was not great but he was better in his 2nd start back from the finger injury. Keep in mind that was against an Arizona team with a solid pass defense that is now 9-2 on the season. Yes, Taylor Heinicke is off a strong start last week but it was against his former team and that Panthers team dropped to 5-7 on the year with an embarrassing performance yesterday at Miami. I know that Washington's win at Carolina did follow a huge home dog upset over the Bucs but upsets do happen from time to time. The fact is that Washington was 0-4 ATS at home this season before knocking off Tampa Bay. I will take Wilson and a hungry Seahawks team off B2B losses against Washington (plays in the NFC Least Division!) team led by Heinicke that is off rare B2B wins any time any place. Wilson and the fired up Seahawks make a statement on the road in a Monday Night game with all their NFL peers watching. 10* SEATTLE +1

NFL Primetime Punisher - 8* Cleveland Browns +3.5 @ Baltimore Ravens @ 8:20 ET - The Ravens are 1-3 ATS last 4 home games. Baltimore also had failed to cover 3 straight games before the ugly win at Chicago last week. I know Lamar Jackson is expected back at QB for this one but will he be 100%? The Browns have lost 3 straight meetings with Baltimore and out for revenge here. The Ravens have had one dominating effort, versus the Chargers, at home this season but in the other 4 games as a host Baltimore has allowed an average of 33 points per game and, again, this is at home! The Browns have held their opponents to 16 points or less in 4 of last 5 games! Like the Ravens, Cleveland is off an ugly win as they barely got by Detroit but here they will make up for an ugly road loss at New England. Prior to getting embarrassed by the Patriots, the Browns had gone 3-1 ATS in road games this season. I look for a statement game here from the road dog as they finally step against the "big brother" in the division and knock off Baltimore. I will grab the points as added insurance here but do expect an outright win. 8* CLEVELAND 

NFL Game of the Month - 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams -1 vs Green Bay Packers @ 4:25 ET - Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers will play through a broken toe here in the freezing cold in Green Bay. Does not sound like fun. This is particularly true against a tough Rams defense. Additionally, that LA defense is angry and rested as the Rams are off their bye week. That was preceded by B2B losses but Los Angeles has only failed to cover the spread twice the last nine times they were off a bye week. In other words, look for the Rams to get the win and cover here. They have plenty of motivation too because they lost at Green Bay 32 to 18 last season. Los Angeles is in dire need of a win here, has revenge, and they have a rest edge. The Packers have lost 2 of 3 and are off a road loss at Minnesota last week. This one is all Rams and, trust me, there is a reason the Packers are a dog here even though they are at home and have the better record on the season. Don't let the line fool you. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS -1

NFL Earliest Cash - 8* Tennessee Titans +7 or +7.5 @ New England Patriots @ 1 ET - Yes the Titans have had injury issues and the Patriots have been rolling but this line has gone too far. Tennessee is off a loss at Houston but that was due to a rare 5-0 turnover deficit. The Titans actually outgained the Texans by a margin of 420 to 190 in that game! The fact Tennessee lost that game 22-13 on the scoreboard despite the big yardage edge is what is helping to give us some line value here. The Patriots are hot but are actually just 2-4 SU at home this season and are 5-0 SU on the road. The point is that, playing the road team in New England games this season nets you a 9-2 SU record and we are getting a full TD with the Titans here. I'll take it as I look for them to bounce back off last week's sloppy loss. Tennessee is 4-1 SU and ATS in road games this season. Titans on a long-term 5-1 ATS run as a road dog. 8* TENNESSEE +7 or +7.5

NFL Primetime Punisher - 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills -6 @ New Orleans Saints @ 8:20 ET - After getting completely embarrassed on their home field by the Colts last week, the Bills bounce back strong here. The Saints have struggled without starting QB Winston and have dealt with other injury issues as well. New Orleans now has lost 3 straight games and an angry Buffalo team is surely going to show no mercy here either. The Bills have a solid passing attack and the Saints struggle to stop the pass. On the flip side, the Saints struggle to move the ball through the air and Buffalo, overall, has one of the best defensive units in the league. The Bills are 3-0 SU/ATS this season when off a loss and, in all 10 of their games this season the SU winner has also been the ATS winner. Look for those patterns to continue here in this one. Bills also on an 8-1 ATS run in non-conference match-ups and, keep in mind, they did not just lose last week...they got blasted. That is the kind of defeat strong teams bounce back from in a strong way! 10* BUFFALO -6

NFL Non-Conf Total of the Month - 10* Top Play OVER 51.5 in Dallas Cowboys vs Las Vegas Raiders @ 4:30 ET - Both teams hungry to get back on track. The Cowboys and Raiders are each off very disappointing low-scoring losses and each will be better for it this week. Dallas scored 43 points in their most recent home game. I know Las Vegas has been struggling to score much for an extended stretch but the Cowboys are not a great pass defense and Carr and the Raiders will take advantage. Prescott-led Dallas will take advantage of facing a Raiders defense that struggles against the run. Getting the Cowboys ground game going will open up the ability to attack through the air and Dallas has one of the top offensive units in the league and Prescott has the ability to pick them apart when he is on like he was in most recent home game. More of the same here and, with the Cowboys offense being very aggressive off a loss and scoring plenty of points here, it will force the Raiders to have to pass a ton to try and score enough to keep up here. The end result will be plenty of points. 10* OVER 51.5 in Dallas

NFL Earliest Cash - 8* Detroit Lions +3 vs Chicago Bears @ 12:30 ET - Detroit still seeking that first win of the season and they know this game is one of their best chances remaining on the schedule. That said, I feel they will not let this opportunity pass them by. Chicago is a mess right now as rumors swirl that their head coach could be fired after this game regardless of the outcome. As for the Lions, they have been more competitive recently with a 3-point loss at Cleveland and a 16-all tie at Pittsburgh. Detroit is now hosting a Bears team that has lost 5 straight games. Another key for Lions is Jared Goff is expected back under center. That was the news that broke last night and is part of the reason I waited till this morning to release my Thanksgiving Day selections. Here is the first of my big card. 8* DETROIT +3

Primetime Punisher - 10* Top Play NEW YORK GIANTS +11.5 - The Bucs are off B2B losses. Yes I know TB is back home and those two losses were on the road. However, Tampa Bay is 4-0 at home but lets take a closer look. The biggest win was actually the smallest margin win as the Buccaneers did beat the Cowboys by 2 points to open up the season. However, the other 3 wins were against teams that are now a combined 11-20 this season. Now of course I know the Giants are only 3-6 on the season but 2 of their SU wins have come in the last 3 games and, overall, they are on a 3-0 ATS run. Giants are also a solid 3-1 ATS in road games this season and the points should prove well worth the taking here. The Bucs are starting to question themselves after the B2B losses and Brady INT's, etc. Don't be surprised if this one ends up being tight as a result. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS +11.5

NFL Primetime Punisher - 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers +6 - The Steelers will have Roethlisberger back under center and I look for Pittsburgh to take advantage of facing a Chargers team that has allowed an average of 31 points per game last 5 games. Yes the Steelers are off disappointing tie last week versus Detroit but I look for having Big Ben back to make a big difference in this game. The Steelers had averaged 23.5 points per game in winning 4 straight games prior to that tie. Also, Pittsburgh has allowed only 18.4 points per game last 5 games. Keep in mind we don't need them to win this game outright either, rather we just need them to at least stay within the number and I like our changes of that. I feel this Chargers team is over-rated and they have lost 3 of games and also only have one win by more than 6 points this entire season! Lot of value with the points here. 10* PITTSBURGH +6

NFL The Total of the Year - 10* Top Play OVER 50.5 in Las Vegas - The Raiders have run into major issues this season but this is still a team that can score a lot of points. Particularly this is true when taking on a Bengals team that has allowed a total of 75 points last two games. Also, electric environment for Vegas home games and the over is 4-1 when Raiders have hosted this season. The over is 3-0 in Cincinnati's last 3 games overall. Look for these over trends to continue here. Both teams strength on offense is the passing game so that helps overs too. This is particularly true when dealing with a Bengals pass defense that ranks in the bottom 25% of the league. Also, the Raiders pass defense got torched for over 400 yards last week by a Chiefs offense that had been struggling. That does not bode well for the LV defense Sunday as they face a Bengals offense that has had two weeks to prepare for this game and certainly paid attention to how the Chiefs torched the Raiders defense last week. Yes, Cincinnati got hammered and scored just 16 points in the loss to Cleveland before their bye week but the Bengals had scored an average of 35 points the 3 prior games. Raiders had scored more than 30 points in 3 of 4 games before last week's dismal effort versus the Chiefs and they will bounce back here. 10* OVER 50.5 in Las Vegas

NFL Earliest Cash - 8* Baltimore -5 - The Ravens are angry off a horrible effort on Thursday night football at Miami last week. Baltimore has some extra rest heading into this game and will be in a fighting mood. I know the Bears also have extra rest because they are off a bye week but note that Chicago is 0-7 ATS the last 7 times they were off a bye. Statistically, the Bears have one of the worst offenses in the league this season while the Ravens have been one of the best. That said, I look for the road favorite to pull away as this game goes on as Chicago does not have the offense to keep up. I like taking strong teams off losses and the Ravens respond big here. 8* BALTIMORE

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #312 Thursday 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons +7 vs New England Patriots @ 8:20 ET - Look for Falcons to bounce back off ugly loss at Dallas. Atlanta has covered 6 of last 7 against AFC opponents. I know the Patriots are hot but they are on a 3-5 ATS run in non-conference games and just laying too many points on the road in this one. New England is now over-valued because of their winning streak and Falcons undervalued because of ugly loss to Cowboys last week. Patriots last week caught Browns when Cleveland was off huge divisional win over Bengals at Cincinnati the prior week. Other teams faced during the NE win streak include a Panthers team that entered the game losers in 4 of 5 and a Chargers team that has now lost 3 of 4 and a Jets team that is 2-7 on the season. Now they face a Falcons team that had won 4 of 6 prior to the loss at Dallas last week. That said, we are not asking Atlanta to win this game but just to cover the TD spread and I fully expect they will do at least that here. 10* ATLANTA +7 

MNF Blowout - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #265 Monday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams -3.5 @ San Francisco 49ers @ 8:15 ET - The Rams are off an ugly home loss to the Titans but outgained Tennessee by a substantial margin so it was a deceiving final score. Prior to that loss, Los Angeles was 7-1 on the season and only 1 of the wins was by less than 9 points! That is why I am fully comfortable laying the short number on the road here. I like taking good teams off losses. Yes, the Niners are off a loss too but San Francisco has now lost 5 of last 6 games and each of their last 4 losses were by 7 or more points. Look for this one to be by at least that margin as well. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS -3.5

AFC West Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #263 Sunday 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 @ Las Vegas Raiders @ 8:20 ET - There are 4 teams the Raiders have faced this season that the Chiefs have not faced and those teams entered this week's action with a combined record of 14-20. There are 5 teams Kansas City has faced that Las Vegas has not faced and those teams have a combined record of 26-17. The other 4 teams each has faced are common opponents on the schedule thus far. The point is that the Chiefs have faced the tougher schedule thus far. I know KC continues to underachieve at the betting window as they are on a long-term ugly ATS run. However, this line is a 2.5 and all 5 of the Kansas City wins this season have been by 3 or more points. I highly doubt the spread is going to come into play in this game. The SU winner will very likely be the ATS winner. The Raiders have dealt with a lot (Gruden, Ruggs) this season and it is starting to catch up with them. Las Vegas has lost 3 of 5 games SU and is on a 2-4 ATS run. The Raiders only two wins during this stretch were over a bad Eagles team that has lost 6 of 9 this season and over a Broncos team that was slumping at the time and ended up with a 4-game losing streak. The Chiefs have underachieved so far this season but this is after huge success in recent years and I really expect them to raise things to another level down the stretch run of the season. Certainly this KC team has the pedigree to do just that. This is the time of year that separates the contenders from the pretenders and with the Chiefs a 1/2 game back in the standings (one more loss than the Raiders) they need this game and I feel strongly they will rise to the occasion here behind a huge game from Mahomes as he puts this team on his back and gets it done in primetime. 10* KANSAS CITY -2.5

Total of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #259 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 49.5 in Green Bay Packers vs Seattle Seahawks @ 4:25 ET - Packers get Aaron Rodgers back at QB and they have their full complement of wide receivers back. Seahawks get Russell Wilson back at QB this week. It is snowing Sunday morning in Green Bay but the fact this is a later game helps us in that regard. The snow will be gone and the winds will be subsiding by the time this game kicks off. The weather, though chilly of course, should not be a factor here. Also, like the fact the Packers are off a ridiculously low-scoring loss at Kansas City but had Jordan Love at QB and now are back home with Rodgers at QB and taking on a Seahawks defense allowing 402 yards per game this season. The Packers defense has some impressive numbers on the season but the Seattle offense is one of the more dangerous ones in the league when Wilson at the controls. I look for both teams to have wide open playbooks as they are so happy to have their star QB's back and ready to turn them loose so don't be surprised if this game turns into a back and forth shootout! 10* OVER 49.5 in Green Bay

Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #243 Sunday 8* Cleveland Browns +2.5 @ New England Patriots @ 1 ET - The Browns are off a key win over the Bengals in divisional action but the Patriots are off a deceiving turnover-fueled 24-6 win at Carolina. Last week, New England was held to less than 300 yards of offense. The Browns had nearly 100 yards more offense at Cincinnati than the Pats had against the Panthers last week. I am just not sold on this New England team and they had allowed 24 points per game last 3 games before shutting down a horrible Darnold-led offense last week. The Browns, on the other hand, have allowed just 15 points per game last 3 games and their defense gets it done again here. 8* CLEVELAND +2.5

Money Line Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #249 Sunday 8* New Orleans Saints +140 @ Tennessee Titans @ 1 ET - For those of you without access to the money line of course you can play the Saints at +3 here. I am recommending, and will be graded at, the money line on this selection because I love having the solid plus money in a game I feel New Orleans will not lose. The Saints rallied from a big deficit last week but still fell short at Atlanta on a late field goal. The Titans won their game last week and the 28-16 final looks impressive but it was anything but impressive! Tennessee actually was outgained substantially as the Rams nearly nearly doubled them up 347 to 194. After that trip to the West Coast and, being that it ended in an upset win, the Titans are in the perfect to fade here. The Saints, angry off a loss, have covered 7 of last 8 as a road dog and I feel strongly we won't even need the points here as the road dog rides their defense to victory here. 8* NEW ORLEANS +140 

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #113 Thursday 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens -7.5 @ Miami Dolphins @ 8:20 ET - There is some question about who the Dolphins QB will be here but think about whether that is really a big deal or not. Would you rather have Lamar Jackson or Jacoby Brissett or Tua Tagovailoa leading your team? Exactly! Only one of those guys suits up for the Ravens and he is ready to go tonight. Jackson coming off a huge game versus the Vikings and, speaking of huge games, check out the following. The Ravens most recent road game was a 23-7 win. Baltimore's 3 most recent games against the Dolphins all were wins by margins of 32 points or more. Expect more of the same here as Miami enters this game off a rare win - against the downtrodden Texans - but had lost 7 in a row SU and 5 in a row ATS prior to that victory. Look for Ravens to pull away for easy win in this one! 10* BALTIMORE -7.5

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #475 Monday 8* OVER 39 in Pittsburgh Steelers vs Chicago Bears @ 8:15 ET - The Bears Justin Fields is off a better game against the 49ers last week in which he looked more comfortable in the offense including the Chicago QB rushing for over 100 yards. However, though they scored 22 points in that game they allowed 33 points in that home loss to San Francisco. The Bears have now allowed an average of 32 points their last 3 games. The Steelers are off a solid 15-10 win at Cleveland. However, Pittsburgh entered that game having allowed 23.2 points per game their last 5 games. Given the above numbers I feel tonight's total is set too low. Pittsburgh will do some damage against this Bears defense which has not been a dominant recently. Also, the dual-threat Chicago QB Fields is going to give the Steelers defense some trouble since he is a running threat too. I know these teams are not known for scoring a lot of points but, in a primetime game with beautiful weather expected at Heinz Field, I am looking for the offenses to be a bit of a surprise in this one. With the low total, it won't take much for this one to get there and I will gladly grab the value. 8* OVER 39 in Pittsburgh

Non-Conf Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams -7 vs Tennessee Titans @ 8:20 ET - Waiting has paid off here as the line was mostly in the 7.5 range until Sunday morning and now it has dropped to a -7. Love the value here with the Rams favored by just a TD at home against a Titans team off a huge divisional road win over the rival Colts in OT last week on the road. Yes, Tennessee is 3-1 on the road this season but one of the wins was against a horrible Jacksonville team. The other two victories were both in overtime. Give the Titans credit for notching those road OT wins but they could easily be 1-3 in road games this season with the only win against a 1-6 Jaguars team. Also love the last week the Titans had to put in a ton of effort and rallied from a 14-0 deficit. Conversely the Rams were able to cruise to the win after building a 38-0 lead. Note that the loss of RB Derrick Henry to injury is also a big blow for Tennessee. This Rams team is the better team in the trenches on both sides of the ball particularly when it comes to pass protection when they have the ball and pass rushing when on defense. That said, and with the Titans having to throw more with Henry being out, the Rams defense will be able to key on the pass and I feel Tannehill and Company could have a big challenge here. Look for the Titans to score some but they won't be able to keep up with red hot Stafford and this Rams offense which has been surging of late. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS -7

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 48 in Kansas City Chiefs vs Green Bay Packers @ 4:25 ET - Contrarian play. Rodgers out at QB for the Packers to this total has been heavily adjusted downward. I personally feel that Jordan Love is going to be a pleasant surprise at QB for Green Bay and he gets an added advantage here of making his first start against one of the worst defenses in the league. The Kansas City defense has underachieved all season long and I don't see that changing here. GB gets an added key weapon back too with the return of WR Davante Adams expected for this one. The Chiefs have been very strong on offense this season so I do expect them to score well but I expect their poor defensive play to continue. The result is that we get excellent line value with this total being in the upper 40s instead of mid 50s which is where it was before the Rodgers covid situation. Both teams are trending under of late but last week the Chiefs went right down the field to start the game and then turned it over on a tough INT and that is a momentum killer for an over when a game starts like that. As for the Packers upset win over the Cardinals last week, anyone who watched it knows that late game finish (at both ends of the field!) was one of the bad beats of the season for anyone who had the over (like we did right here). The point is that the under trending for each team is a little flukey. Keep in mind, Chiefs rank as one of best offenses in league but one of worst defenses. As for Packers, they have scored 24 points or more in 7 straight games! So if they hit 24 here and lose by 7 as the line suggests, you can see we should be at mid 50s in this one. I liked what I saw from Love in the preseason and feel he will fit in well with this Packers offense and they get the job done here but Mahomes and Company also deliver a monster effort on offense at home in this one. 10* OVER 48 in Kansas City

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Carolina Panthers +3.5 vs New England Patriots @ 1 ET - The Panthers have seen QB Darnold and RB McCaffrey each get upgraded to questionable for this game. Even if neither played - though I do expect both to play - I like my chances with the home dog Panthers here. Carolina got a much needed win at Atlanta last week and this is a solid team defensively and fundamentally. I know the Patriots, just like Carolina, are 4-4 on the season and off B2B wins and I am hearing some chatter about watching out for New England because they are surging a bit. But I am not convinced about this team just yet. The Patriots have two wins over the 2-6 Jets and a 1-7 Texans team. The only win over a stronger team is over the 4-3 Chargers. But the odds makers are a very sharp bunch as you know and they have the Chargers as nearly a pick'em against the Eagles this week! So what does that tell you about how good the Chargers really are? So the point is just that the Pats are very over-valued here in my opinion. Maybe they do eke out a win but to be favored on the road by 3.5 points against a defensive-minded home dog? I just do not see it! In 8 games this season New England has only 2 victories that were by more than 3 points! Panthers, in 4 home games this season, only have 1 loss by more than 3 points. 8* CAROLINA +3.5

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts -10 vs New York Jets @ 8:20 ET - The Colts are off an OT loss by 3 points and Carson Wentz, after being so strong in terms of avoiding INTs this season, threw 2 picks last week. Look for Indianapolis to bounce back as they are at home again and catch the Jets off an upset win over the Bengals. There is a reason the Colts are a double digit favorite even though they are only 3-5 while the Jets are 2-6 this season. Don't let the line keep you away. Big blowout here. In true road games, not including the neutral site game in London, the Jets have lost their last two away from home by a combined score of 80 to 13. Ugly defeats on the road and now New York faces a hungry Colts team that had won 3 of 4 SU and covered 4 straight ATS prior to the loss to the Titans. Indy won last season's meeting 36 to 7 and another blowout win on tap here. 10* INDIANAPOLIS

MNF Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #278 Monday 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs -10 vs New York Giants @ 8:15 ET - When a good team hits rock bottom they generally respond very well in their next game. I feel that is precisely the situation we have here with the Chiefs. After losing 2 of 3 games, including an ugly 27-3 loss last week on the road, Kansas City is going to respond big at home. KC was averaging 31 points per game prior to last week's loss. The Giants, prior to a rare blowout win 25 to 3 last week, were averaging just 19 points per game on the season. I just don't expect New York to be able to keep up here on the road. Historically, the Chiefs defense is known for being much tougher at Arrowhead Stadium and they will be up for this game! Kansas City has had a rough season thus far but Patrick Mahomes and Company have reached their rock bottom and, though I am usually not fond of laying big points, I absolutely see a massive blowout brewing here! The Giants were on a 2-game losing streak by an average margin of 25.5 points prior to the win last week. The Chiefs last two wins were by an average margin of 15 points and were part of a 2-1 run prior to last week's loss. The Giants also have a long list on the injury report this week. The healthier and hungrier team gets it done in a big way in this one! 10* KANSAS CITY -10

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 51 in Minnesota Vikings vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - I know about the Dak Prescott situation but I truly feel he will play and this is more gamesmanship from the Cowboys trying to make the Vikings think he may not play or at least keep them guessing if it might be Cooper Rush under center. The fact is these are two of the better offenses in the league this year based on yardage production. Also, these teams are off bye weeks so they should be very fresh here and ready to attack on offense. These two strong units will be going against two defenses that truly rank as mediocre. Also, the over is a perfect 4-0 last 4 Cowboys games. The last two meetings between these teams both went over the total. This total was in the mid-50s earlier this week but has dropped to as low as a 51 as of early gameday morning. I'll gladly take the value on the other side of this move as Dallas has scored 35 or more in 4 straight games and Vikings have scored 30 or more in 3 of last 5 games. The Cowboys defense allowed at least 29 in 2 of 3 road games this season. The Vikings defense has allowed at least 27 three times in their six games. Also, as long as Prescott plays, this Cowboys offense will absolutely be the toughest test for the Minny D yet this season. Plenty of points likely in this one. 10* OVER 51 in Minnesota

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints +4.5 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 4:25 ET - I am going to challenge the Bucs to actually cover a road game! Tampa Bay continues to be a bit over-rated by the betting markets in my opinion. I know they got the huge win at home versus the Bears last week but Chicago was a turnover machine in that game! Give TB credit but now they go on the road to face a tough division rival and the Buccaneers are 0-3 ATS this season in road games. The Saints first home game this season had to be at a neutral site in Jacksonville because of hurricane damage in New Orleans. That game was a huge win for the Saints over the Packers but, since then, NO has had just one home game and they lost it to the Giants. So not only is this just their 2nd true home game of the season, New Orleans is also searching for their first win in the Superdome this season! That plus Jameis Winston going against his former team and the Saints having failed to cover only 1 time the last 9 times they have been a home dog has me grabbing the points here without hesitation. This number is a 4.5 so we get past the NFL key betting numbers of 3 and 4 as well. The Saints have covered 9 of last 13 in divisional games and Tampa Bay has failed to cover 9 of last 12 games when they have a bye week on deck. Look for Bucs to find an angry Saints team (knocked out of playoffs LY by TB in turnover-fueled loss) waiting for them in the Superdome Sunday! I expect an outright upset but will grab the points as added insurance here! 10* NEW ORLEANS +4.5

Early Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Pittsburgh Steelers +4.5 @ Cleveland Browns @ 1 ET - Revenge spot for the Steelers and they are undervalued here in my opinion. Pittsburgh not only lost at Cleveland in their final regular season game last year, the Steelers then lost at home to the Browns in the Wild Card round of the playoffs the very next week. Now of course you can not just blindly play revenge situations but I like this one a lot as Pittsburgh is off their bye week and this is a crucial game for them in the AFC North standings. The Steelers are undervalued right now because of their 1-4 ATS run and I know the Browns just beat Denver last week but the Broncos are in a major slump. Cleveland allowed 42 points per game in the two games prior to the win at Denver. Also, the Steelers are off B2B wins and starting to build momentum. Pittsburgh has covered 12 of its last 16 as a road dog. The Browns are on an 0-8 ATS run in regular season games against divisional foes. 8* PITTSBURGH +4.5

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #107 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 50 in Arizona Cardinals vs Green Bay Packers @ 8:20 ET - I know the Packers have issues at wide receiver with both Adams and Lazard likely out. However, Green Bay is expected to get Marquez Valdes-Scantling back for this game as he did travel with the team and is listed as probable now. The other key WR is Randall Cobb as he is QB Aaron Rodgers primary target by a substantial margin. Also, the other healthy bodies, though less proven at the NFL level, are still solid wide receiving options that are in addition to Cobb and Valdes-Scantling. That being said, I feel we have excellent line value with this total now dropping to the 50 range after being near the mid-50s earlier in the week. Though Arizona has great defensive numbers this season, they also have faced teams with QB issues - injury or otherwise - and that has played a key factor. Now they face Rodgers and a Packers team that has averaged 27.5 points per game last 6 games! Keep in mind they have not scored less than 24 in any of those 6 games. They are a TD underdog here. That puts this game at 31-24 if GB just hits the minimum they have reached in 6 straight games. That said, you can see why I like the over plenty in this one. Green Bay's defense allowed only 14 points in most recent road game but, in their first 3 away from Lambeau Field this season, the Packers allowed an average of 29.3 points per game and this has been a recurring pattern for the GB D. Last season they were also much better at home than on the road. This Cardinals offense will be tough to stop as they are surging with confidence thanks to a 7-0 start to the season! Arizona has averaged 32 points per game this season and only been held below 31 points ONCE in SEVEN games! The Cardinals get into the 30s here and the Packers keep within about a TD. As you can see, that means we were looking at mid-50s at least in this one! 10* OVER 50 in Arizona

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #474 Monday 10* Top Play Seattle Seahawks +4 vs New Orleans Saints @ 8:15 ET - Saints are 3-2 on the season and Seahawks are only 2-4 on the season. However, even though Seattle is without QB Russell Wilson, the Saints offense is certainly no longer a juggernaut since Drew Brees retired. New Orleans actually ranks near the bottom of the league this season on offense based on yardage stats. Yes the Saints do rank as the better team on defense in this match-up but Seattle is capable of stepping up big when at home and in a primetime game. We have seen it time and time again in this situation with the Seahawks. By the way, Seattle has allowed only 23 points per game last 3 games while Saints have allowed 22 points or more in 3 of last 4 games. There is  just not a big disparity between these teams right now and I look for the Seahawks to give New Orleans all they can handle in this one! 2 of the Seahawks 4 losses this season have been by just a 3 point margin and we are getting more than that here. Also, the Saints are just 2-2 SU the last 4 games and the two wins were against teams that were a combined 4-8 entering this week's action. I know Seattle has some issues but the Saints offense is just not that strong and they will struggle to pull away in this game and the Seahawks bounce back from a loss to Rams in most recent home game. 0-2 SU at home this season, look for the hosts to bring forth a very strong effort on their home field in this one. 10* SEATTLE +4