Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #303 - 8* Arizona Cardinals (-) @ San Francisco 49'ers @ 8:25 PM ET Thursday - Both teams are off to tough starts at 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS. For the 49'ers this is not such a big surprise but for the Cardinals it certainly is. Arizona should respond in a big way this week even without Carson Palmer at QB as Drew Stanton is expected to get the start. What has killed the Cards the past two weeks is turnovers as they had 5 in each game. This is skewing their results in terms of marketplace perception and now we can take the far superior team here -3 after they were as high as a 4.5 point favorite earlier in the week. The fact is that Arizona, on a yardage basis, actually ranks in the top ten this season both on offense and defense while the 49'ers are near the bottom of the league in both categories. Since beating the Rams in week one, the Niners have been statistically dominated in every single game. They were outgained by 227 yards in week two, 164 yards in week three, and 133 in week four. Now San Francisco is facing a Cardinals team that has beaten them by at least 6 points in 3 of the last 4 meetings. Also, Arizona is on an 8-4 ATS run as an away favorite. First downs are 104-65 in favor of the Cards in the last 4 meetings between these teams. The Cardinals are on a 6-1 ATS run when they are off of an ATS loss by a double digit margin and are then favored against an NFC foe. The Niners are on a 1-5 ATS run in Thursday games. 8* ARIZONA

Top MNF Crusher - Rickenbach NFL 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) @ Minnesota @ 8:30 ET Monday - With Sunday's action in the books the Vikings are one of only three undefeated teams in the league. In my opinion this still has the Vikes as being a little over-rated. Minnesota lost QB Teddy Bridgewater to injury late in the pre-season and now lost RB Adrian Peterson to a knee injury. Minnesota has been winning with defense and I am well aware of the fact that this team has a great defense and certainly I respect that. However, this is still a team whose offense has been impacted by these injuries and I am not sold on Sam Bradford at QB. Overall, the Vikings offense is averaging only 265.3 yards per game so far this season and that ranks them near the bottom of the league. Conversely, the Giants offense has rolled up 396.7 yards of offense per game so far this year and that ranks them near the top 5 teams in the league. Every single game the Giants have played this season has been close with an average margin of 2 points per game. The Vikings have one win by just a field goal but the other two wins came by more than a TD margin. However, Minnesota was actually outgained in both of those "big" wins! The Vikings defense has been getting the job done by generating turnovers and this is masking a sub-par offense. With the Giants off of a loss where they turned the ball over 3 times for a 2nd straight game, I am fully confident New York will be fired up and ready to play a "complete game" on MNF and avoid the turnover bug. The Vikings, while deserving credit for a solid defense that is pressuring QB's and forcing turnovers, have been fortunate early this season while the Giants certainly have not been so fortunate. That is what is helping to create the line value here. New York blew a 21-9 lead against Washington last week and I look for Eli Manning and Company to respond this week. The Giants are 7-1 ATS when off of a game against the Redskins. Also, they know QB Bradford very well from his days with the division rival Eagles. As for the Vikings, they are on an 0-7 ATS run on Monday Night Football and also 0-5 ATS when off of a straight-up win as an underdog and facing a team that has a winning record. Minnesota is also 0-4 ATS when they are off of a game where they allowed 10 points or less against a non-division opponent. Last, but certainly not least, the Vikings are 2-10 ATS when they are off of a game where they covered the spread by double digits and are now facing a team with revenge. The Giants lost badly at Minnesota late last season and it is time for a little payback. Those angles above add up to a 33-3 ATS mark in favor of the road dog in this one! I am grabbing the points here! 10* NEW YORK GIANTS Monday Night.

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #276 - 8* Pittsburgh Steelers (-) vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:30 ET Sunday - The Chiefs are off of a dominating 24-3 win over the Jets where New York QB Ryan Fitzpatrick basically handed them the game. All kidding aside, the Jets had 8 turnovers in that game. As for the Steelers, they are off of their embarrassing 34-3 loss at Philadelphia. If you look at last Sunday's scores only one team was a held to single digits in points (Pittsburgh) and only one team allowed a team only single digits in points (Kansas City). Ironically these teams meet in the next week and that has set exceptional line value for the Steelers here. Earlier in the week they were a 6 point favorite and now they are all the way down to a 3.5 as of Saturday night. I realize both these teams are 2-1 on the season but, in my mind, only one of them is a true Super Bowl contender and that is Pittsburgh. That said, the Steelers are looking to avenge a 10 point loss at Kansas City last year and they went 8-3 ATS the past two seasons in their games against teams with a winning record. As for the Chiefs, they are an ugly 2-4 ATS in their last 6 as a road dog between 3.5 and 7.5 points. Also, the Steelers are on an incredible long term run of 55-33 ATS in the month of October and they are hungry to respond off of last week's embarrassment. Pittsburgh is an incredible 10-0 ATS when they are off of a game where they allowed 28 points or more. The Chiefs are 1-6 ATS as dogs when they are off of a game where they allowed 7 points or less. Kansas City is also 0-4 ATS as dogs when facing teams from the AFC North. Look for this one to be all Steelers! 8* PITTSBURGH Sunday evening

Rickenbach NFL Game #274 - 8* Arizona Cardinals (-) vs Los Angeles Rams @ 4:25 ET Sunday - This line keeps dropping as it is inching closer to a -7 after opening up near a -10. Of course I understand the downward line move because of perception. Everyone saw the Cardinals lay an egg against New England in the season opener and then everyone is looking at their result from last week where Arizona lost 33 to 18 at Buffalo. However, the Cards turned the ball over 5 times in that game and that was the key difference as Arizona actually outgained the Bills 260 to 88 through the air in that game. The Cardinals are a solid team that is much better than the 1-2 record they've got right now. As for the Rams, they won 37 to 32 at Tampa Bay last week but the Buccaneers outgained LA by a 472 to 320 mark and Los Angeles is fortunate to have a 2-1 record on the season. The Cardinals blasted Tampa Bay in week two and they're capable of doing the same to the Rams here in Week 4 as they are again off of a loss and fired up. The Rams have one of the worst offenses in the league as the big points last week was because of turnovers. Los Angeles doesn't have the firepower to keep up here. The Rams are 0-5 ATS when they are on the road and facing a divisional foe who is off of a SU loss as fave. That is precisely the case here with the Cards off of that loss to the Bills. Keep in mind, Arizona got embarrassed last week and they are 6-0 ATS when they are favored against an NFC foe and they are coming off of an ATS loss by double digits to the spread. 8* ARIZONA in late afternoon action Sunday

Rickenbach NFL Game #268 - 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+) vs Denver Broncos @ 4:05 ET Sunday - The Buccaneers are off of a tough home loss to the Rams last week as they outgained Los Angeles by over 150 yards in the game but came up on the wrong end of the scoreboard in the 37-32 final. The Broncos were at the other end of the spectrum as they as they barely outgained the Bengals at Cincinnati but yet won the game by a 29-17 final. Of course this wasn't the first time this season that the Broncos have been quite fortunate as they very nearly lost their season opener to Carolina and that game was at Denver. The Broncos have had to rally for their backers in each of their three games this season. While I certainly respect the Denver defense this is a team that honestly could just as easily be 0-3 ATS as they are 3-0 ATS as they were down in the 3rd or 4th quarter of each of their games. Statistically Denver's offense has been much worse than the points per game average you are seeing for them as a team and, also, the Bucs defense has been much better than their points per game average allowed as a team. Last week's "crazy game" against the Rams was a perfect example as they only gave up 320 yards in that game but 37 points! Denver has only covered 4 of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. The Bucs have covered 6 of their last 7 games against a non-conference opponent off of a SU and ATS win. That system fits perfectly here and I look for the Bucs to spring the upset. 10* TAMPA BAY in the late afternoon games Sunday

Rickenbach NFL Game #257 - 10* Top Play Seattle Seahawks (-) @ New York Jets @ 1 ET Sunday - The Seahawks have gone from being a 3 point favorite in this game to all the way down to a pick'em. The value here is simply too good to pass up on. Seattle has a bye on deck so there is no lookahead for them and, keep in mind, this is still a team that is very hungry because, after winning the Super Bowl three years ago, they then lost the Super Bowl the next season and then last season they were knocked out of the playoffs by Carolina in the divisional round. The last thing the Hawks want to do is go into the bye week with a 2-2 record. The way I see it they already had their "oops" game for the first part of the season when their offense failed to show up at Los Angeles and the Rams beat them in a tight, low-scoring game. As for the defense, they are again performing like one of the elite units in the entire league. That spells bad news for a shaky Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Jets QB threw 6 picks last week and there is no doubt the Seahawks defense is licking their chops and they are going to "bring it" on Sunday! What is also significant about this line dropping to a pick'em is the fact that Seattle is 6-2 ATS (and a PERFECT 8-0 SU) when they enter a game off of a divisional win. The Seahawks will build off of last week's dominating win over the 49'ers. The Jets are on a 1-4 ATS run in games against NFC opponents and they don't fare well in games projected to be tight. New York is an ugly 4-9 ATS in games with a line between +3 and -3. I'll take Russell Wilson over Ryan Fitzpatrick any day of the week and I also know that I have the better defense in this one. 10* Seattle Seahawks in early afternoon action Sunday

Rickenbach NFL Game #251/252 - 8* OVER in Jacksonville vs Indianapolis @ Wembley Stadium in London @ 9:30 *AM* ET - This is the fourth straight year the Jaguars are playing in London and each of the 3 prior games went over the total. Jacksonville scored 34 in last year's game here and they have allowed an average of 34.7 points per game in their three trips here. Their defense is likely in for another tough match-up this time around too as star QB Andrew Luck and the Colts are a tough draw for any defense. The Colts have one of the top passing attacks in the league. The problem for Indianapolis is their defense and this is especially true away from home. The Colts have given up an average of 31.7 points per game in their last 10 road games dating back to the playoff loss at New England that ended their 2014 seasons. The porous defense of Indy helps lead this one into a shootout because I don't foresee the Jags being able to stop a dynamic Colts offense with Luck and Company. Once again another wild game in London involving the Jaguars. The over is 10-4 in the Colts last 14 games played on grass and also 8-4 in the Jaguars last 12 games where the line on the game is between -3 and +3. 8* OVER in the London game EARLY Sunday morning

TNF Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #102 - 8* Cincinnati Bengals (-) vs Miami Dolphins @ 8:25 ET Thursday - Nice set-up from a situational standpoint as the Dolphins are off their first win of the season (against the Browns) and it took overtime to get it. The extra effort (went to OT even though they were facing a bad Cleveland team) will certainly not do any favors for Miami in terms of now being on a short week and having to face an angry Bengals team. Cincinnati started last season 8-0 but they are now 1-2 to start this season as they blew a lead against the Broncos and lost to Denver by 12 last week. The game was certainly much closer than the final scored would indicate and the Broncos barely outgained the Bengals. In Cincy's first two games this season they won the yardage battle each time. The point is that Cincinnati still a much better team than their record is showing while the Dolphins still are a "question mark" at best with what they've shown so far this season. Note also that Miami is on a 1-8 (SU and ATS) run in games played on turf. Cincinnati is 9-1 SU (and 6-3-1 ATS) in their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. Also, the Bengals have been strong when off of back to back SU losses. They were knocked out of the post-season in their first game in the playoffs in 2012 and then lost their season opener in 2013. Off those back to back SU losses, they responded with a win and cover in game 2 of the 2013 season. This began a stretch where Marvin Lewis and his Bengals are now a PERFECT 5-0 SU and ATS when they enter a game on a 2-game SU losing streak. Look for that streak to reach 6-0 this week! 8* CINCINNATI on Thursday

MNF Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #489 - 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons (+) @ New Orleans Saints @ 8:30 ET Monday - Huge revenge game for the Falcons as they lost both match-ups to the Saints last year. The first one, at New Orleans, ended Atlanta's 5-game winning streak to start the season. That also began an ugly 1-7 run for the Falcons that ruined their season. They haven't forgotten and, even though the Saints will be hungry here because of an 0-2 start to the season, the Falcons won't be denied. Both teams have solid offenses but New Orleans struggled at New York in the loss to the Giants last week. The Saints defense only allowed 16 points last week but 3 turnovers were the key as New Orleans actually allowed 417 yards. Also, prior to that game, the Saints had allowed an average of 28 points per game in their last 10 games. New Orleans is only 4-10 ATS in the role of home favorite and the revenge-minded Falcons are coming into this one flying high after another strong performance from QB Matt Ryan in last week's win at Oakland. Atlanta outgained the Saints in both meetings in each of the past two years but last year still lost both on the scoreboard. Falcons head coach Dan Quinn is fired up about getting his first win over this division rival (after going 0-2 last year) and you can bet the defensive-minded coach paid plenty of attention to how the Giants frustrated Drew Brees and the Saints offense last week. More of the same this week. 10* ATLANTA Monday Night

Sunday Night Insider - Rickenbach NFL Game #487 - 8* Chicago Bears (+) @ Dallas @ 8:30 ET Sunday - The Bears will have QB Brian Hoyer under center for this one and truly he will be an upgrade for Chicago as Jay Cutler struggled badly last week. Look for the 0-2 Bears to rally around Hoyer for this game and note that the defense has been solid for Chicago. This line move up from a 5.5 to a 7.5 before setting back in right around 7 as of Saturday evening. This is a great value spot to grab the dog as the Bears catch Dallas off of a fortunate win. The Cowboys struggled with the Redskins last week and Washington looked like they were going to punch it in and take a 10 point late lead before an errant pass in a "goal to go" situation ended up being a 14-point swing. It was some of the stupidest play-calling I have ever seen from a head coach as the Redskins consistently moved the ball against Dallas but then made some risky play-calls and finally got burned on one that decided the game. Credit is due to Dallas for hanging in there and grabbing the 4 point win but it truly was a gift from Washington and I am not impressed with the Dallas defense this season. The Cowboys gave up 432 yards to the Redskins and you can bet that Hoyer is going to be looking to the make the most of this opportunity in the national spotlight against a secondary that has a lot of question marks. Dallas is known for struggling at home and they have gone 5-16 ATS as a home favorite when facing a team from outside their division. Also, the Bears are led by a defensive-minded head coach and you can bet John Fox will have some special packages in mind for facing Cowboys rookie Dak Prescott in this one. Even though the Bears have a division rival on deck, Chicago actually has gone a phenomenal 14-2 ATS in their game prior to facing the Lions. The Cowboys are 1-9 ATS when Dallas is off of a straight-up win and facing a team that has a losing record and is playing with revenge. That is the case here as the Cowboys got the fortunate win over the Redskins last week while the Bears are 0-2 on the season and seeking to avenge a loss in Chicago in 2014 when Dallas most recently faced the Bears. 8* CHICAGO Sunday

Ultimate PA Insider - Rickenbach NFL Game #482 - 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 4:25 ET Sunday - No one believes in the Eagles yet because they've only beaten the Browns and Bears. However, Cleveland actually jumped on Baltimore 20-0 last week before eventually losing. You didn't see Cleveland jump on top of Philly 20-0 did you? As for the match-up with the Bears, even though Chicago's offense certainly may have some issues they are a solid defense and well-coached by John Fox who is certainly a defensive-minded head coach. The Bears weren't able to stop the Eagles in what was supposed to be the Eagles first loss of the year. Now the talk is that Pittsburgh will take them down because finally the Eagles face a top team. Perhaps this is the week that Philadelphia loses but, if they do, it should not be by more than a field goal. Let's not forget, Philly has home field here, and also their defense is vastly improved and certainly the overall "locker room" and team "chemistry" is worlds better now in Philly. Give credit to new coach Doug Pederson and the entire Eagles management team. They are doing a good job already in Philly in terms of having put the right pieces together and that certainly includes rookie QB Carson Wentz who certainly is not your "average rookie" in terms of his intellect for the playbook and for making quick decisions in terms of reading coverages and reading defenses overall. He is a sharp kid with a strong arm and he'll give Pittsburgh some trouble Sunday as, fortunately for the Eagles, they are catching the Steelers at the perfect time. Pittsburgh just got a huge win last week over the division rival Bengals and that is always a physical game that is very taxing mentally and physically to the Steelers. The last 4 times that Pittsburgh is off of a game against Cincinnati they have not covered their next game a single time. The Eagles have their bye week on deck so they will certainly put every ounce of energy into this game and the atmosphere at The Linc is certainly going to be electric. As for the Steelers, they poured every ounce of energy into last week's key divisional win! Philly is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games against AFC opponents. Even though these teams are in the same state they don't meet often since they are in opposite conferences but historians will like the fact that the Eagles have covered 4 of the last 5 including all 3 in Philly. The Eagles continue to be undervalued as, with their bye week on deck and with the Steelers off a very demanding divisional showdown, the situational edge here is with the home dog. 8* PHILADELPHIA Sunday

Total of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #485/486 - 10* Top Play OVER in Indianapolis Colts vs San Diego Chargers @ 4:25 ET Sunday - Both teams have gone over the total in each of their first two games and it wasn't because of fluke results either. With Philip Rivers leading the Chargers and Andrew Luck leading the Colts you have two of the top QBs in the league leading these high-powered offenses. As for the defenses, each of these units ranks among the worst in the league and the Indy secondary has been ravaged by injuries of late. Rivers and company have to be "licking their chops" at the downfield opportunities they will have in this game. At the same time, the Chargers defense was monumental in defeat in terms of how they blew that first game at Kansas City, an eventual OT loss for San Diego. Even though the Chargers bounced back with a big home win over the Jaguars, don't be fooled by the final scored. San Diego only allowed 14 points but Jacksonville had nearly 400 yards of offense in that game. The Colts are off of a tough game at Denver but that came against a Broncos defense that is arguably the best in the league. The scarier part of that game was the fact that the Colts D gave up 400 yards to a very questionable Denver offense. That said, the high-powered Chargers attack should roll right through the Indy D on Sunday. Dating back to last season, Indianapolis has allowed an average of 31.6 points per game in their last 7 games! The Chargers had one good game on the road last season. In their other 7 road games last season San Diego allowed an average of 26.6 points per game. This season the Chargers gave up 33 total (27 in regulation) in their lone road game. There is no reason this game shouldn't end up being a 35-31 type game the way these defenses are playing and the way these two QBs can sling it. 10* OVER in Indianapolis Sunday afternoon

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #462 - 8* Cincinnati Bengals (-) vs Denver Broncos @ 1 ET Sunday - The Broncos have been fortunate so far this season. Certainly Denver has a solid defense and I would never argue that. However, new QB Siemian now makes the first road start of his NFL career. Keep in mind, he made a lot of mistakes against the Panthers in Week 1 and the Broncos were fortunate to win that game. Then, last week against Indianapolis, Siemian was certainly aided by the fact that the Broncos DEFENSE scored a pair of touchdowns. Cincinnati is fired up after their loss to Pittsburgh last week as the Bengals outgained the Steelers but lost the game by 8 points. Cincy has won each of their last 4 home openers handily and did not lose a single one ATS either. The Bengals threw for 366 yards last week against Pittsburgh and that aerial attack will be the key to keeping the Broncos D off balance. The Broncos are on a 7-16 ATS run when they are a road dog outside of their own division. The Bengals are on a 13-6 ATS run when they are a home favorite. Also, Cincy is on a 9-0 ATS run against AFC West opponents and, believe it or not, Cincinnati is actually on a 6-1 ATS run in their game that immediately follows facing Pittsburgh. A tightener to that is that the last 4 times in a regular season game after losing to the Steelers in the prior game, the Bengals are a PERFECT 4-0 ATS in their next game! Cincy is fired up again after the loss to the Steelers and I look for Siemian to struggle in his first road start. 8* CINCINNATI Sunday 

Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Game #474 - 8* Green Bay Packers (-) vs Detroit Lions @ 1 ET Sunday - The Packers are off of a disappointing loss on Sunday Night Football. They will be hungry for another huge divisional game this Sunday in what is also their home opener. Green Bay has only lost the money ONCE in their last NINE home openers. The fact this line has moved from an 8.5 opener all the way down to as low as a 6.5 as of Saturday evening means that we are getting excellent line value here. Green Bay has underperformed on offense so far this season but they did face a tough Vikings defense last week. Now this week the Packers are finally at home and they also face one of the worst defenses in the league. The Lions only allowed 16 points last week but the Titans were a combined 5-27 the last two seasons and yet still went into Detroit and upset them last week. The Lions allowed 13 fourth quarter points to Tennessee. This was after the Lions gave up 35 points on 450 yards at Indianapolis in Week One. Now Detroit must contend with a fired up Packers team that is on a 21-11 ATS run in a game after a straight-up loss. That defeat to the Vikings will bring out the best in Green Bay Sunday for their home opener and I am well aware of the fact that the Lions are seeking revenge for the Hail Mary loss at Ford Field last year but, keep in mind, the Packers also have revenge on their minds here. That's because Detroit beat the Pack at Lambeau last season the for the first time in 24 years! It's payback time! 8* GREEN BAY Sunday

TX Insider - Rickenbach NFL Game #301/302 - 8* OVER in New England Patriots vs Houston Texans @ 8:25 ET Thursday - This total is in the 40.5 range as of early gameday morning. The Patriots are likely to start Jacoby Brissett at QB and that is helping to keep this total lower than it should be. The Pats, with Bill Belichick at the helm, are very well coached and Brissett was known for rising to the occasion in big games in College. Coach Belichick will have an excellent game plan in place here and the Texans defense is going to be exposed. Houston's defense, based on some off-season changes, is unlikely to be on par with prior years. The reason they are off to a good start this season is because they faced a Bears team whose offense is one of the worst in the league and a Chiefs team that was off of a huge comeback victory in overtime that left Kansas City absolutely spent physically and mentally for their game at Houston. Now the Texans are on the road for the first time and they're facing a Pats team that is in the middle of a 3-game stretch at home and that has put up 54 points in their first two games even without Tom Brady at QB. Yes, Jimmy Garoppolo was under center for most of that but this Patriots offense is a "well-oiled machine" and Brissett will be ready to take over the controls. The concern for the Pats tonight is their defense as they allowed 459 yards last week to the Dolphins...yes, the DOLPHINS! With Houston off to a 2-0 start and feeling confident on offense they will be able to move the ball on a Pats defense that has some areas of concern. We're getting line value here because each of the Texans first two games have stayed under the total and because New England has the aforementioned QB issues. 6 of the last 7 meetings between these teams have gone over the total including all 3 games played at New England. Also, in Patriots games with a line between +3 and -3, the over has gone 10-3 (77%) the past 2 seasons! 8* OVER in New England Thursday

PA Insider - Rickenbach NFL Game #289 - 8* Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Chicago Bears @ 8:30 ET Monday - The Bears are 9-22-1 ATS in home game the past 4 seasons combined. This is their home opener and it is Monday night and yes, it is the Eagles Carson Wentz first road contest as an NFL rookie. However, he is not your "typical" rookie QB in that he ran a pro style offense in college at North Dakota State. Also, his intellect is off the charts and this has helped him learn the playbook of the Eagles very quickly as well as helping to make good, split-second decisions on the field. Even though the Eagles win in Week 1 came against the Browns and much was made to downgrade the Philadelphia victory, that was the same Cleveland team that jumped out to a 20-0 lead over Baltimore yesterday before eventually falling just short of an upset win over the Ravens. As for the Bears, not only has Soldier Field not been special for them at the betting window in recent seasons, this offense has struggled as they ranked 23rd out of 32 teams for scoring last season. In week 1, the Bears only managed 258 yards and 14 first downs. The Eagles defense was very impressive in last week's win as they held the Browns to 10 points, 288 yards, and 14 first downs. Wentz threw for nearly 300 yards plus had 2 passing TDs in the win over Cleveland. The Bears are currently on an 0-6 ATS skid in home games when they are off of a non-conference game. After Chicago was held scoreless by the Texans in the 2nd half of last week's game, look for the Eagles to be mindful of the adjustments that Houston made at halftime that led to the shutout of Chicago in the second half last week. Philadelphia is 8-1 ATS on Mondays when they enter Monday Night Football off of a straight-up win. After knocking off the Browns last week, look for the Eagles to build off of that momentum. Supported by that 8-1 ATS stat and the 6-0 ATS stat against the Bears we've got combined 14-1 ATS edges working in our favor in this one and I expect the Bears home ATS futility to continue. 8* PHILADELPHIA 

Blowout Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #287 - 8* Green Bay Packers (-) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 8:30 PM ET Sunday - The Vikings are expected to start Sam Bradford who was acquired from the Eagles right before the season. Minnesota snuck by the Titans at Tennessee last week but the QB situation is a concern with all the issues due to Teddy Bridgewater's injury happening so late in training camp. The Vikes beat the Titans by 9 points last week but Minnesota was outgained in that game as the win was certainly helped by a +3 turnover margin. Keep in mind though that this was a Tennessee team that is a combined 5-27 the past two seasons. Now Vikings, still trying to adjust at QB, face a fierce division rival with revenge on their minds. The Packers lost the season finale to Minnesota last year and that resulted in Minny winning the division and Green Bay entered the playoffs on the road as a wild card. It is now time for a little payback and we're getting line value here because the line has gone from as a high as a -3 on Green Bay to very nearly a pick'em. Of course the Vikes are a popular choice this week since they're opening up their new stadium and have done so well at home ATS in recent seasons. What many are not realizing is that the Vikings just are not the same team without Bridgewater and bringing in Bradford now could be a disaster. He has had very little time to adjust to the Vikings playbook and now faces a fierce division rival in primetime action. The Vikings defense led the way in last week's win but QB Aaron Rodgers and company...present a much tougher challenge than the Titans did last week. The Packers, prior to the loss to the Vikes at the end of the regular season last year, had won 5 games and tied once with the Vikings in their last 6 meetings. Minnesota hadn't beaten Green Bay since the 2012 season. Look for the Packers to give Bradford and a weak Vikings offense all sorts of trouble here. 8* GREEN BAY Sunday night

Shocker of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #281 - 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts (+) @ Denver Broncos @ 4:25 ET Sunday - The Broncos survived their season opener but it truly was a "choppy" debut for new QB Siemian as turnovers certainly were an issue. Overall the Broncos were outgained and narrowly held on for the 1 point victory. I look for Denver to be exposed here as the Colts offense is so dangerous with QB Luck at the controls and Indianapolis put up 450 yards of offense in last week's loss to the Lions. Of course the issue for the Colts, as it was last week against the Lions, is their defense. However, this Broncos offense is going to have some "growing pains" with Siemian at the helm. Denver is on an 0-9 ATS run in games against the Colts and with this spread working all the way up from an opener of 4.5 to a 7 as of Saturday, it is "go time" for me. Indianapolis, the last 10 times they are off of a loss and then are a dog of at least a point or more (basically out of the pick'em price range) they have gone 10-0 ATS! Fired up after a missed opportunity win at home against Detroit last week, the Colts will bring their "A game" this week. The Broncos, by virtue of sneaking out that 1 point win over Carolina, continue to be over-rated and that is evident by the line move here as the Denver backers are out in full force. The Colts are very hungry off of their disappointing 8-8 campaign and the super bowl champ Broncos certainly have a target on their backs this season. Denver is on a 2-5 ATS run as a home fave of 3.5 to 7 points and the Colts are on a 6-2 ATS run as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points . 10* INDIANAPOLIS in the later games Sunday afternoon

#1 O/U Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #279/280 - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Rams vs Seattle Seahawks @ 4:05 PM ET Sunday - Being a contrarian, of course, certainly does not always work. However, it definitely qualifies as a key tool in the arsenal of a quality handicapper and "going against the masses" has played a key role in much of my success in the NFL through the years. This Sunday I go for it again with a situation I feel is offering tremendous value. This total opened up at a 40.5 and has dropped all the way down to a 37.5 as of Saturday. Of course I completely understand the move. The Rams offense was one of the worst in the league last year and then got shutout on Monday night at San Francisco. Seattle has one of the top defenses in the league and the Seahawks are coming off of a 12-10 win versus Miami last Sunday. Why the over here? The Seahawks are seeking revenge as they were surprisingly swept by the Rams last year. That said, Seattle won't take their foot off of the gas if they get up big in this game. Los Angeles has the reputation of being strong defensively but they slipped last year and the yards per game they allowed was much more indicative of this defense than the points allowed. The Rams also lost some key defensive players coming into this season. Look for Los Angeles to struggle to stop a very determined Seahawks offense here but the "surprise factor" here is that I expect Los Angeles to enjoy some surprising success on offense. Yes, the Rams totally laid an egg last week but this is their first home game after the move from St Louis and let's not forget that Jeff Fisher's Rams have scored at least 23 points in 3 of their last 4 meetings with the Seahawks. The last two times the Rams hosted the Seahawks they have averaged 31 points per game. After last week's embarrassment the Rams will play much better on offense this week and head coach Fisher has managed to surprise the Seahawks before. However, I don't see the Rams getting the upset this time but I do expect Seattle to put up a ton of points against this over-rated defense. 10* OVER in Los Angeles Rams in the later games Sunday afternoon

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #272 - 8* Washington Redskins (-) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 1 PM ET Sunday - The Redskins won't be popular with the betting markets this week as everyone watched them get obliterated by the Steelers on Monday Night and Washington is now on a short week. The key here though is that this is a huge rivalry game and it is a key road test for the Cowboys rookie QB. Though Prescott didn't make key mistakes last week sometimes playing too cautious can cost a team too. Note that star WR Bryant only caught one pass and "managing a game" but still losing is a fruitless endeavor. Now Prescott faces a much tougher test on the road and the Redskins are fired up after losing by 22 points last week versus Pittsburgh. Lets not forget that the Skins are the defending NFC East champs and Dallas continues to have a putrid record without Tony Romo at QB. Washington is on a 4-1 ATS run in divisional battles while Dallas is on an overall 3-11 ATS run. The Redskins have lost their home game with the Cowboys each of the last three seasons and that means it is time for a little payback today as they have the defense capable of giving a rookie QB a lot of trouble. Look for their defensive line to get a lot of pressure on Prescott and also look for a myriad of blitzes and stunts from the Skins defense in this one. 8* WASHINGTON early Sunday afternoon

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #102 - 8* Buffalo Bills (+) vs New York Jets @ 8:25 ET Thursday - Certainly the Bills offense was ugly in their 13-7 loss at Baltimore last week. Definitely this is a revenge spot for the Jets after Buffalo went 2-0 against them last season with the season finale win keeping the Jets from the playoffs. However, all of that said, Bills coach Rex Ryan has a special disdain for his former team, the Jets, and he and the entire city of Buffalo will "bring it" again tonight. I definitely like the value afforded by the line move here as the Bills opened up as a 3 point favorite but are now a 1.5 point dog as of very early gameday morning. Some key ATS stats are certainly in our favor here. Buffalo is 7-1 ATS the last 8 times they are off of a game where they scored less than 10 points. Also, the Bills are 5-1 ATS when they are in the first of back to back home games. With this being Buffalo's home opener, and with a home game on deck with a strong Arizona team, the Bills will be "all in" to win this game which certainly strengthens the validity of that 5-1 ATS mark in this spot. As for the Jets, note the Bills did open up as a FG fave here and certainly it would not surprise me to see this line move back to where Buffalo ends up being favored in this game. Should that occur, note that the Jets are 1-6 ATS as road dogs of less than 4 points. Though the Bills have struggled on the road in recent seasons (and that continued in Week 1) they are a different team at home. Buffalo is 16-8 ATS in home games the past 3 seasons combined. The Jets lost a handful of starters from the defense in the off-season and I expect that side of the ball to be their downfall this season. In their season opener the Jets allowed the Bengals to complete 23 of 30 passes for 324 yards. The Jets are 3-8 ATS in games with a posted line between +3 and -3 the last 3 seasons combined. Buffalo is on an 8-3 ATS run in divisional games. The Bills also are on a 4-0 ATS run in home openers. Orchard Park, NY will be rocking tonight as a big home win over a hated rival will do wonders for this team and they are starting to believe that they can finally break their 17-year post-season drought as they have inched closer to being a playoff team the past two seasons with a 9-7 record in 2014 and playing .500 ball in 2015. The Bills laid an egg last week on offense against the Ravens but they've shown a history of bouncing back after ugly efforts like that on the offensive side of the ball. Look for the Bills to play another solid defensive game to complement a bounce back performance on offense that attacks the Jets suspect secondary. 8* BUFFALO BILLS Thursday

Monday Night Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Game #479 - 8* Pittsburgh Steelers (-) @ Washington Redskins @ 7:10 ET Monday - We're getting some line value here since running back LeVeon Bell is out for the Steelers (for the first 3 games) and also wide receiver Martavis Bryant is suspended for this season. The key is that the Pittsburgh ground game has ample support behind Bell and, there also is reason to believe that one of the top passing offenses in the league will again do just fine here. Remember the retirement of Hines Ward before the 2012 season? Or how about the departures of Mike Wallace in 2013 and Emmanuel Sanders in 2014? No matter what the situation, the Steelers have consistently found other guys ready to "step up" and pair with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to provide great complimentary firepower to #1 wide receiver Antonio Brown. I don't expect this to be any different against the Washington Redskins on Monday night as the Steelers have some talent that could "step up" once again with guys like Sammie Coates and Eli Rogers. With the Steelers on the road and with the impact of the suspension, this potential Super Bowl contender is priced at very low number and that price has dropped a little making 3 a "win number" now for Pittsburgh. That means it is now "go time" for me. The Redskins have a history of struggling (5-16 ATS) in Monday night home games. Also, even though Washington is a home dog here, that is a role that - when not facing an NFC East foe - has seen the 'Skins go 4-9 ATS overall in recent seasons. Outside of their division, the Redskins don't look so strong! As I wrote in my NFL Preview analysis prior to the season, the problem with the Redskins in my opinion, from a “value” standpoint, is that many will be on the Washington bandwagon early on when looking at the NFC East. That’s because of the Cowboys dealing with the Romo injury coupled with the fact that Washington won the division last season. As I noted then, I am expecting to see some nice “go against” ATS spots with the Redskins early this season in particular. That said, here is our first one as, sure enough, some Washington money is coming in and knocking this line down and the line was already 'short' in my opinion. The Steelers are one of the best teams in the league, the Redskins are not even necessarily the best team in the NFC East - a division that arguably could go to any of the 4 teams. Take advantage of the value here with the Bell suspension. 8* PITTSBURGH Monday.

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #478 - 8* Arizona Cardinals (-) vs New England Patriots @ 8:30 ET Sunday - The Patriots have gone 15-6-3 ATS at home the past three seasons combined while only going 8-16 ATS on the road during this same stretch. I look for the road struggles to continue in a very tough "first test" missing some key players early this season. Rob Gronkowski is dealing with a hamstring injury and of course then there is the Tom Brady suspension (first four games of the season). That the Pats will have Jimmy Garoppolo under center early this season and that will certainly have an impact here against a tough Cardinals team. Even though the line has been adjusted due to the situation with these two key players, it is not enough. Keep in mind that the Pats have enjoyed a lot of success for many years thanks to beating up on a relatively weak AFC East division. This season, the Patriots will be facing the AFC North and NFC West as part of the non-divisional action and that means some tougher match-ups for New England just like this one at Arizona! Garoppolo has had only 31 passing attempts in his NFL career. He is a back-up for a reason! While the Pats have thrived in the AFC East it is impressive what Arizona has done outside of the NFC West! The Cards are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games outside of their division. The Cardinals are one of the most balanced teams as they are so "stacked" on both sides of the ball and the Cards are so well coached. Arizona has gotten off to fast starts under Bruce Arians in each of his three seasons and this not just SU but also at the betting window as they are 11-4 ATS in their first 5 games over the 3 seasons. With Garoppolo, and not Brady, leading the Pats this is the perfect time to fade Bill Belichick as Cardinals coach Arians is one of the best in the league and he's got the better personnel on the field for this one plus home field edge. 8* ARIZONA CARDINALS 

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #473 - 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET Sunday - The Cowboys lost 11 of their 12 games without Tony Romo last season and, of course, that is the big story line coming into the new season after he got hurt in the preseason. One of the big keys here is that Dak Prescott is being hailed for his preseason performance with Dallas and that he should hit the ground running for the Cowboys here in Game one. The problem with that angle is that regular season is nothing like preseason. The trouble for Prescott is not going to be his athletic ability or his arm strength or his legs. The problem is going to be making proper adjustments to all the defensive sets he's going to see with stunts, blitzes, etc that are the type of things Prescott did not see in the preseason. The Giants offense can take advantage of a Cowboys defense that is missing some starters early this season due to suspension. With head coach McAdoo (former Packers OC), a Giants offense that ranked in the top ten of the league last season is likely to make strides again this season as they've added even more firepower. The defense also looks improved after a big spend in free agency and the Cowboys have only covered 3 of their last 14 games. Also, Dallas has long been known for struggling in their home stadium and they are actually and ugly 1-7 ATS in home openers! These teams are bitter rivals and the Giants have lost to the Cowboys in a season opener 3 of the last 4 years and now it is payback time as NY has the big edges in this season opener. Let's also not forget we're fading a Dallas team here that won only 4 games last season and that has struggled so badly when Romo is not under center. More of the same here. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS

Early Shocker - Rickenbach NFL Game #458 - 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Cleveland Browns @ 1 ET Sunday - After being favored by 7, the Eagles are now down to as a low as a 3 point favorite as of Saturday evening. This is simply an insane line drop and one I will gladly take advantage of. Carson Wentz is not a typical rookie. The Eagles first rookie QB to start the first game of a season since 1939 ran a pro-style offense in college. Additionally, the guy is wise beyond his years and is an extremely intelligent player. He has grasped the Eagles offense much quicker than even the most ardent Wentz supporters could have expected. Not only that but let's not forget this is still an Eagles team that has averaged 9 wins per season the last three years. They're AT HOME and hosting a Browns team that has not won more than 5 games in ANY of the last 8 seasons. It is going to be a phenomenal atmosphere at The Linc in Philly as the fans are thrilled to see Bradford gone and welcome in the Wentz era. The Browns are 14-50 SU in road games the last 8 seasons and this is a very small number in this one after the line move so a Browns loss is very likely to lead to an Eagles cover! Keep in mind that Cleveland will be without WR Josh Gordon for the first 4 games of this season (suspension). The Browns have lost 11 straight season openers by an average margin of a dozen points per defeat. Cleveland enters the new season having lost 10 of its past 11 regular season games and the Eagles have won their season opener in 4 of the last 5 years. I am calling this one a shocker because seemingly everyone has bought into Cleveland since the opening line came out and then AGAIN after the Bradford trade. You know what normally happens in the NFL when the masses are lining up on one side! Give me the Eagles. 8* PHILADELPHIA

#1 O/U Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #463/464 - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Chiefs vs San Diego Chargers @ 1 ET Sunday - What I wrote about the Chargers in my AFC West preview before the season certainly holds true here. As noted in that preview, San Diego has been an “under” team in terms of totals in recent seasons but with the offense staying solid (led by Phillip Rivers) and the defense in for a drop-off (departure of Eric Weddle and other significant starters), this team could be in for some explosive, high-scoring games. I stated in that this could be particularly true early this season as there will most certainly be an “adjustment phase” on the defensive side of the ball. With that said, this early season match-up with Kansas City certainly fits the bill because the Chiefs averaged 27.8 points per game in winning their last 10 games of the regular season last year. Kansas City's head coach will be out to show everyone that the Chiefs offense will be just fine even though last year's offensive coordinator Doug Pederson is now coaching the Philadelphia Eagles. However, on the other side of the ball the Chiefs did lose some depth from last year's solid defense and the injury to star LB Justin Houston certainly hurts. The offense has been ahead of the defense to start the season each of the last two years under coach Reid as the over has gone a combined 6-2 in their first 4 games of each of the two seasons. As for the Chargers, as a road dog of 3.5 to 7.5 points under coach Mike McCoy, the over has gone 5-1 (83%) in regular season action. 10* OVER the total in Kansas City. 

Rickenbach NFL Game #451/452 - Primetime Punisher - 8* OVER 41.5 in Denver Broncos vs Carolina Panthers @ 8:30 ET Thursday - The weather forecast in Denver looks great with clear skies and light winds. The big concern out of Denver is at the QB position post-Manning but Trevor Siemian earned this start and is a highly intelligent and confident player who will not be rattled in this situation. Let's also not forget that the Broncos were actually outgained in all 3 of their playoff wins in last year's post-season. We all know it was definitely time for Peyton Manning to "hang it up". The point is that Denver's offense is quite likely to move the ball better than many are expecting here. I like to be a contrarian (particularly in the NFL) and I love the fact that this game opened up at a 43.5 on the total and has now dropped to as low as a 41 in some spots as of early gameday morning. Even though the Broncos still have a solid defense, lets not forget that Carolina is a high-powered attack on offense that is also very hungry for this shot at revenge after losing to Denver in the Super Bowl. The Panthers offense averaged 31 points per game last season and they were on a 12-4 run to the over heading into the Super Bowl. "The Game" stayed under the total but the Panthers have lost some key personnel from their secondary and I wouldn't be surprised to see the vaunted defense of Carolina have a drop-off. This will be particularly true early this season. However, Cam Newton and Company get things rolling on offense in their "2nd shot" at this Broncos defense and they'll be ready to go. The over is 12-5 in Panthers road games the past two seasons. More of the same tonight as this game is highly unlikely to play out like the Super Bowl did. 8* OVER in Denver Thursday night

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play Denver Broncos +6 vs Carolina @ 6:30 ET Sunday February, 7th - This line has gone all the way from an opener of a 4 all the way up to a 6 as of a week and a half before the game. I could wait longer but truly would be shocked if this goes all the way up to a 7. That's why I am pulling the trigger now that we're seeing solid +6 available. At least we've achieved one key number (6) and, as noted above, I really don't see this getting all the way to a 7. However, it certainly is apparent that the whole world is enthralled with Carolina after the beatdown they put on Arizona in the NFC Championship. This is giving some exceptional line value to Denver in the Super Bowl. Denver beat a very experienced Patriots team to get here. In and of itself, that says a lot about these Broncos. I feel that all the tight games Denver has been involved in this season are going to carry a ton of weight in this Super Bowl. Carolina's win over the Cardinals in the NFC Championship was honestly almost "too easy" and let's not forget they were also afforded a rather easy win in the divisional round. That's because the Panthers took advantage of a Seahawks team that didn't even belong there. Honestly, Seattle never should have got past the Vikings the week before as that missed Minnesota field goal will live on in infamy. All this said, I feel that battle-tested Denver is where the value is in the Super Bowl match-up. The Broncos have the Super Bowl experience edge with Gary Kubiak over Ron Rivera. Kubiak has a big edge in terms of player experience and in terms of assistant coaching experience in the Super Bowl in comparison with Rivera. Denver is now 14-4 on the season with only two losses by more than 3 points. The Panthers 17-1 mark on the season certainly is exceptional but note that their last 3 games away from Carolina featured their one outright loss and the other two games were both victories BUT they came by just 3 points apiece. The Broncos aren't going to go way easily in this one, not after being thoroughly embarrassed in that 43 to 8 debacle in the Super Bowl two years ago. Denver and Peyton Manning are ready to make amends for that horrific effort. Grab the points for a *10* Top Play with the Broncos.

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play UNDER 45 in Denver vs Carolina @ 6:30 ET Sunday, February 7th - This number tried to get 45.5 but failed to really hold up there so, as of about a week and a half in front of kickoff this total is still sitting on a key number (45) and that means it's time for me to get into play here. The last under we've seen in a Super Bowl was four years ago and I had the under in that one between the Giants and Patriots. What is crazy is that we've now seen three straight overs in the Super Bowl and this seems like the perfect match-up for that streak to finally come to an end. This match-up features the two top defenses in the league. Carolina's win over Arizona marked the 7th time in their last 10 games that the Panthers held their opponent to 20 points or less. Denver's win over New England marked the 12th time in 18 games this season that the Broncos have held their opponent to 20 points or less. Look for the Broncos to rely heavily on their defense to try and keep this game tight. Denver will look to chew up clock with a run-heavy game and a passing attack dominated by short passes to keep the clock moving. The Broncos want to eat up clock and keep Cam Newton and Company off of the field. However, even when Newton is out there, let's not forget the bend but don't break defense that the Broncos have displayed throughout this season. That includes the big win over the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game where the Broncos solid defense battled hard on countless drives to preserve the win over the Pats. Both defenses truly have been firing on all cylinders and I look for this to be the lowest scoring Super Bowl we've seen in quite some time as let's also not forget that the field at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California certainly isn't known as a fast track for offensive production! The UNDER 45 is my Top Play Total for the Super Bowl.

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals +3 @ Carolina @ 6:40 ET - While I have a ton of respect for Carolina (and successfully rode them to victory over Seattle last week), I firmly believe there is a reason this line is so small. It's enticing for bettors to back a Panthers team at home that is 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS as a host this season. However, the Panthers did show a lot of vulnerability when they almost blew their game against Seattle last week and, make no mistake about it, getting past the Seahawks was a major hurdle for Carolina. The Panthers, invariably, are likely to have trouble coming up with a second straight huge effort both physically and mentally after knocking off a Seattle team that had beaten them three straight times. When a team finally shakes free of a nemesis like Carolina did by knocking off the Hawks last week, they often have trouble in the next game. Last week's game was very taxing both mentally and physically for the Panthers. Now, by no means and I am saying the Cardinals had an "easy" win over the Packers last week but the Pack certainly are not a nemesis of the Cards and Arizona rolls into this week's game with plenty of confidence as they have had a fantastic season. Let's not forget that last season was very promising for the Cardinals before the injury situation at the QB position and it was Ryan Lindley under center in the playoff loss to the Panthers last season. Now it's Carson Palmer back under center for this rematch and, just as Carolina finally got by a nemesis last week, I look for the Cardinals to get their revenge in this rematch of a playoff game from early January last year. In games with a line between +3 and -3 the Cardinals have gone 13-3 ATS the past three seasons. As a road dog of 3 points or less the past three season Arizona has gone a perfect 4-0 ATS. As strong as the Panthers have been, they have been outgained in three straight games and it catches up with them here as they took advantage of some fortuitous circumstances in the win over the Seahawks. Seattle was fortunate to even make it to Carolina as they really should not have gotten past Minnesota (the 27 yard field goal miss in the final seconds will never be forgotten by Vikings fans). The Panthers certainly face a much tougher challenge this week as unlike the case when the Seahawks traveled to Carolina last week, this week the Cardinals come to town with a rest edge (played Saturday) and also off of a home playoff game rather than a road game and also the Panthers don't have the extra added edge of a bye week like they had before hosting the Hawks. Look for Arizona to avenge last year's playoff defeat by getting revenge with a healthy Carson Palmer leading the way at QB on Sunday night!

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play New England Patriots -3 @ Denver @ 3 ET - The Patriots are playing this game with revenge for two reasons. One is the ridiculous regular season loss this past season where the Pats were up 21-7 late in the 3rd quarter and then muffed a punt and went on to lose in overtime by a 30-24 score. The other reason for "playoff revenge" is that the Pats lost at Denver two years ago in the post-season. New England got some measure of revenge by winning huge in a regular season match-up in November of 2014 but the loss this past November (couple with this being their first playoff meeting since the January of 2014 loss) makes this revenge angle a huge one here. The Patriots are a fantastic 7-1 SU (and 6-2 ATS) when playing with revenge the past three seasons combined. By the way, this is not a short-term success story for the Patriots either. The long-term numbers show a 57-34 ATS mark when playing with revenge. The Pats also are 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games and I'll take the current Tom Brady over the current Peyton Manning any day of the week. Manning certainly did not impress in last week's win over the injury-plagued Steelers and now he takes on a Patriots team that has gotten much healthier in recent weeks and the offense has what it takes (especially when healthy) to cause problems for the Denver defense. The Broncos have not covered a game since December 6th when they won big at San Diego. Look for this game to make it 6 straight games for Denver without a cover as I look for the Patriots to dominate this game on their way to another Super Bowl appearance.

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers +7 @ Denver @ 4:40 ET Sunday - Of course there are some injury concerns here with Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown of the Steelers but I just can't imagine Big Ben not being able to go in this game. Even if Brown is held out the Steelers still have plenty of weapons. Pittsburgh's offense really carved up the Broncos in their recent late season match-up and they can do it again here. Plus, think about his, why is Pittsburgh now +7 when they were -7 at home against the Broncos! Is home field really that huge? Of course it's not. Even though Manning is back for Denver he's been nowhere near the guy he once was. Why else was Osweiler playing? The fact is that this Broncos offense has had issues throughout this season and certainly padded their record with some fortunate wins. Now certainly my hat is off to the Broncos defense as they have been rock solid but the Steelers offense ranks among the most dynamic in the league and no offense was stronger than Pittsburgh in the latter half of the season as the Steelers were simply blowing defenses up. I think the Steelers defense comes into this game ready to roll again and already having knowledge of the Big Ben and Antonio situation. That said, the collapse we saw from the Pittsburgh D after Ben went down in the Cincy game won't be repeated here. Look for the Steelers D to give another stellar effort here but this time for the full sixty. With that said, there is certainly tremendous value being offered here with the big points. Pittsburgh is 12-4 ATS against teams with a winning record the past three seasons. Also, the Steelers are 6-3 ATS this season in games played on grass. Denver has failed to cover 3 of their last 4 playoff games and Manning is not what he once was and I certainly wouldn't trust Osweiler in this spot. That said, I'll gladly grab the big points here. 

Rickenbach NFL *8* Carolina Panthers -2.5 vs Seattle @ 1:05 ET Sunday - This play from me is certainly not "out of spite" as I did easily win my pick on Minnesota plus the points against Seattle on Sunday; but, have you ever seen a team get as lucky as Seattle did in that game? The point is that the Seahawks were truly outplayed for most of that game and yet they still got the win over the Vikings thanks to a missed "chip shot" field goal with under a minute to go. The point is that Seattle truly doesn't belong here and they now face a much tougher situation than they did last week at Minnesota. Yes, I know that this is a revenge game for the Hawks because they had a home loss to the Panthers earlier this season. However, Carolina is no Minnesota and I don't like what I am seeing from this Seattle offense right now. You can bet the Panthers intense defense (especially on their home turf) is going to give Russell Wilson and Company all sorts of trouble in this one. Of course let's not forget that Carolina went 8-0 at home this season. They covered 6 of those 8 home games and the fact this line dropped from a -3 to a -2.5 is also giving us good odds on the Panthers covering this one should they keep that perfect SU home record intact. The Seahawks are 3-6 ATS in road games with a posted total between 42.5 and 45 points the past three seasons. Also, one could certainly argue that the Panthers revenge angle here is bigger than that of the Seahawks. Yes, Carolina did win at Seattle earlier this season but last year, despite a yardage edge for the game, the Panthers lost a playoff game at Seattle. Also, Carolina has lost each of their last two home games against Seattle. In other words, it's payback time and the set up here for a rested Panthers team against a Seahawks team off of tight, physical, fortunate victory in brutal cold last week absolutely favors Carolina in a huge way here. 

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play Green Bay Packers +7 @ Arizona @ 8:15 ET Saturday - On paper, the Cardinals should be able to crush the Packers and, in fact, that is just what they did when these teams met in Arizona just a few weeks ago and the Cards annihilated Green Bay. However, let's not forget that the Packers were in a very flat spot there. They were off of a key road win on the West Coast the week before as the Pack knocked off the Raiders in Oakland. Also, it was a true 'sandwich spot' in addition to being a flat spot as the Packers had a huge game on deck with Minnesota. Green Bay was, of course, battling the Vikings for the top spot in the NFC North Division. The Packers also had some key injury issues when they traveled to Arizona. With all that said, the only thing the 38-8 beating does (in my mind) is mean that this is a huge revenge game for a very talented Green Bay team that got their offense back on track in their big win at Washington last week AND that possesses a very talented, solid defense. Green Bay has been particularly strong against the pass this season and that is a key to slowing down Arizona. The Packers ugly loss at Arizona a few weeks ago had a lot to do with turnovers moreso than just domination in all facets of the game. In other words, and especially with team leader QB Aaron Rodgers back on track, the Packers can (and should) absolutely hang tough in this rematch. The Cardinals ugly season-ending loss to Seattle certainly has left a little doubt in their minds about just how good they really are and they also could be looking ahead to a potential rematch with their hated division rival as the Seahawks visit Carolina Sunday. If the Cards underestimate the Packers (and they just might) I would not be surprised to see GB win this outright but, even if the Cardinals don't underestimate the Pack, this is a game that should be very close all the way through. So there is excellent value with the big points here and Arizona only went 1-4 ATS this season against teams with a winning record. The Packers went 6-3 SU and ATS in road games this season also a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS this season when playing with revenge.

Rickenbach NFL *8* New England Patriots -5 vs Kansas City @ 4:35 ET Saturday - Revenge game for the Patriots after they were embarrassed last season in a Monday Night Football drubbing at the hands of the Chiefs 41-14 on September 29th of last year. The Pats have a big rest edge here as they were able to rest last week while the Chiefs were on the road putting a beating on the Texans in Houston. That shutout win for Kansas City actually doesn't bode well for what to expect from the Chiefs this week. Teams that are off of shutout win in the playoffs (rare) have gone 1-4 both SU and ATS in the only five occurrences the past twenty years. Hats off to the Chiefs for a big win last week but the key was the five Houston turnovers. Now Kansas City goes from facing Brian 'Turnover Machine' Hoyer at QB to Tom 'Hall of Famer' Brady. The fact is that this will prove to be a tough match-up for a Chiefs team whose recent road challenges have included bad teams and or bad quarterbacks or a combination of both. The only exception was the win over the Broncos when Peyton Manning was clearly not himself and threw four picks on November 15th. The Chiefs other road 'tests' this season against playoff competition (other than Houston) were at Minnesota, at Cincinnati, and at Green Bay. The Chiefs lost all three games and failed to cover any of the three with an average margin of defeat of 10 points per game in those losses. Granted, those games did occur rather early in the season but you can see (and understand) why I expect the Chiefs to struggle against a rested Patriots team that has extra fire in their belly headed into this one. The Pats are still fired up about a poor overall finish to the regular season and they certainly haven't forgotten the embarrassing loss at KC on national TV that occurred early in the 2014 season. The rest for the Pats last week gave them extra time to heal up and they should win this game in an absolute blowout. The Chiefs are 2-5 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9 points the past three seasons and they also have a long-term futility mark of 2-10 ATS in playoff games! The Patriots are 7-2 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points and the Pats are on an overall 17-7 ATS run in home games. No mercy from Belichick's group after that MNF beatdown a year and a half ago. 

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play OVER 45 in Washington vs Green Bay @ 4:40 PM ET - Granted the Packers offense struggled in their last two games of the season but they faced the tough defenses of Arizona and Minnesota. Also, they were plagued by some offensive line injury issues. Though those issues have not completely gone away, the Green Bay offensive line is in better shape heading into this playoff game than it has been for quite some time. Additionally, the Packers offense is going to be able to take advantage of a Redskins defense that has given up at least 290 passing yards in 4 of their last 6 games. This includes allowing 765 passing yards combined in their final two games of the season and those were against weak NFC East foes - Philly and Dallas. The Redskins come out of the NFC 'Least' and they will be susceptible to a Packers offense fully capable of getting right back on track. However, the reason this play is on the over rather than Green Bay is because the Packers D has been struggling against the ground game and this opens things up for the aerial attack. That said, in recent road games, Green Bay has allowed an average of 241 passing yards per game and I look for Redskins QB Cousins to have a huge game. Note that he had a ratio of 22 TDs and just 1 INT in Redskins victories this season and he's fully capable of exploiting a Packers defense that has been shaky in road games. The Redskins went over the total in each of their last four games this season. Washington is also 5-1 to the over in their games against teams from the NFC North division. The Packers are on a 6-2 run to the over in games where they are a road favorite of 3 points or less. A mild high temperature in the upper 50s is expected Sunday afternoon in DC and the rain is expected to have moved out by then. Weather conditions should be just fine for supporting this huge play on the over. 

Rickenbach NFL *8* Minnesota Vikings +5 vs Seattle @ 1:05 ET - Brutal cold in Minnesota is going to help limit the production of what has been a red hot Seahawks offense. The Vikings have revenge here from a beatdown they took at home against Seattle five weeks ago. In that game Minnesota was outgained severely and ended up embarrassed on their home turf. You can bet that the Vikes are ready for redemption here. Let's not forget that in the Seahawks other games against teams with a winning record this season, Seattle only won 2 of the 6 games. The Vikings got a big boost with the return of some key personnel on the defensive side of the ball in Week 16 against the Giants. This helped the Vikings get big wins over the Giants and then the Packers in Week 17 to vault into ownership of the NFC North title. The Vikes allowed an average of just 14.3 points per game in their final three games of the season. Combining the solid defense (now healthy) of the Vikes with the NFL leading rusher (Peterson) leading the ground attack and a weather forecast of temperatures below 0 fahrenheit and you have the makings of a tough home dog to ouster out of the playoffs. I look for the Vikings to hang tough throughout this revenge grudge match. Look for Minnesota to improve to 7-1 ATS as an underdog this season.

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 vs Cincinnati @ 8:15 ET - Cincinnati's Andy Dalton is doubtful. The Bengals are likely to be led by QB A.J. McCarron. Dalton was knocked out of the game against the Steelers on December 13th. The Bengals enter the post-season now having lost 2 of their last 4 games. Because of being forced to go with McCarron at QB the Cincy passing attack has averaged just 169 points per game in their last three games. The Bengals are hosting a Steelers team that has a healthy Ben Roethlisberger under center. Note that the Steelers have thrown for at least 348 passing yards in five of their last seven games. That is more than double the passing yardage the Bengals have been averaging with McCarron under center. You can see why this is shaping up to be a mismatch! The Steelers are the healthier team and they are riding a wave of emotion after getting into the playoffs thanks to the Bills upset of the Jets in the final week of the regular season. This Steelers offense has been so hot that it is a team that no one wants to face right now, but particularly a division rival that is without their starting QB does not want to see this team to open up the playoffs. The Steelers are averaging 32 points per game in their last 8 games. The Benglas are averaging 21 points per game in their last 4 games. The Steelers have won 13 of their last 15 games at Cincinnati and are on an incredible long-term run of 19-6 ATS in games played at Cincy. Pittsburgh dominates the Bengals in their own house once again. 

Rickenbach NFL *8* Houston Texans +3.5 vs Kansas City @ 4:35 ET - The Texans lost their season opener at home against Kansas City and now it is payback time for Houston. Though the Chiefs come into this game having won 10 straight games, it is important to note that they have not faced a single winning team in their last 7 games. Also, on the season, Kansas City went just 3-4 SU and 3-4 ATS against teams with a winning record. I have been very impressed with the Texans this season as, thanks in part to a phenomenal defense, Houston was able to have a solid winning season even though they used 4 different starting QBs during the year. The Texans had one of the top defenses in the league in the regular season and Houston also held their opponents to 10 points or less in nearly half their games this season! Even though both these teams come into this Wild Card match-up red hot, I like the fact that the Texans can be grabbed at +3.5 as a home dog. Houston has impressed me as they have not been outgained in any of their last 9 games except for one (New England). As for the Chiefs, they have actually been outgained in four of their last six games. In my opinion, Kansas City has definitely been winning some games with smoke and mirrors. Look for the Chiefs to lose their ninth straight playoff game! Kansas City hasn't won a playoff game since their 1993 playoff run. As for the Texans, they have won each of their home playoff games (2011 and 2012) and I look for them to do it again here as all the pressure is on Kansas City where they haven't been able to get off the schneid in the post-season and they have the better record and are favored here on the road. A lot of pressure on the Chiefs.

Rickenbach NFL *8* Green Bay Packers -3 vs Minnesota @ 8:30 ET - The Eagles play a big part in this play! Why? Read on please. The Vikings are off of a huge blowout win over the Giants last Sunday night. New York simply laid a FAT EGG after they watched the Eagles also lay a FAT EGG the night before. That's right, Saturday night's Eagles loss to the Redskins was so monumental and unexpected (and it ended the Giants post-season hopes) that it not only cost Eagles coach Chip Kelly his job, it also led to one of the most uninspired efforts you'll ever see from a football team when the Giants got shellacked by the Vikings last week. Minnesota also had the benefit of facing New York without the suspended Odell Beckham, Jr. The point of all this is that the Vikings 49-17 smashing of the Giants has helped to keep this number at a -3. The Packers played an awful game at Arizona last week and lost 38-8 but you know they will now respond at home with the division title on the line! In Green Bay's last two home games they have averaged over 203 rushing yards per game. The Packers ground game will quickly open things back up for QB Rodgers to get back on track through the air. The Vikings barely outgained the Bears in their deceiving 38 to 17 win that preceded facing the lifeless Giants. Let's not forget that, prior to that, the Vikes had lost 3 of their last 4 with the only win coming against a Falcons team that was in the midst of a 9-game winning streak. I'll take Packers QB Rodgers over the Vikings QB Bridgewater in a big game any day of the week. Grab the line value with the small home fave here. Play Green Bay -3 as an *8* selection Sunday.

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play OVER 37.5 in San Francisco vs St Louis @ 4:25 ET - Why the low total here? The Rams have stayed under the total in 11 of their 15 games this season. Also, this match-up features two of the teams that have produced the weakest production on offense of any in the NFL this season. Why then would I have a Top Play on the OVER here? Because an end of season game can play out much differently than the rest of the season. These teams have nothing to play for but pride. There is no reason to hold anything back here so both offenses will take chances here and certainly will open up the playbook as much as possible. The Rams have won three straight games so even though they haven't been lighting up the scoreboard, St Louis certainly has plenty of confidence heading into this game. The Rams have averaged a respectable 25 points per game during this 3-game winning streak. The Niners have allowed an average of 25 points per game in their last 6 games and, not surprisingly, 5 of those 6 performances resulted in losses for the 49'ers. San Francisco is on a long-term 15-6 run to the over in home games with a posted total between 35.5 and 38 points. Three of the Niners last four games against teams with a losing record have gone over the total. 9 of the Rams last 15 games against teams with a losing record have gone over the total. Look for a wide open affair as this is truly anybody's game and the offense will be on display in what has otherwise been a boring season for each of these teams. Here is a chance to open things up a bit and end the season on a high note. Play OVER 37.5 in San Francisco as a *10* Top Play selection Sunday.

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play Oakland Raiders +7.5 @ Kansas City @ 4:25 ET - If you played defense alongside the Raiders Woodson and you knew this was the last game of his illustrious 18 year career would you want to let him down? Of course not! The Raiders have been playing solid defense for many weeks now. They got the OT win over San Diego last week and held the Chargers to 20 points. Prior to that win the Raiders had given up 310 yards or less in each of their 4 prior games. Oakland is playing hard for Woodson and that will continue Sunday at Kansas City as the Raiders also aim to get 8-8 and avoid a losing record on the season. While technically the Chiefs have something to play for here, Kansas City also knows the likelihood of San Diego going into to Denver and knocking off the Broncos is slim. That said, the focus here for the Chiefs may not be as pinpoint as one would think. I look for a bit of a lackluster effort from Kansas City here while Oakland certainly goes all out in this one. We also got some line value here because the Chiefs beat the Raiders by a 34-20 score last month in Oakland. The Raiders led that game 20-14 in the 4th quarter before they had the ultimate of meltdowns. That won't be repeated here and an outright win for an emotional Raiders team would not surprise. Certainly though the best value is with grabbing the generous points. Play Oakland +7.5 as a *10* Top Play selection Sunday.

Rickenbach NFL *8* OVER 52.5 in Atlanta vs New Orleans @ 1 ET - At 52.5 of course this total seems awful high. But there is no reason this game shouldn't get well into the sixties! Saints QB Brees led New Orleans to victory last week with a 412 yard performance and 3 TDs. The Falcons are off of their huge upset win over the Panthers last week as WR Jones had 9 catches for 178 yards. There is no reason this game shouldn't turn into a back and forth shootout. There are no playoff implications for either team so the defenses can't help but let up in intensity while the offenses have no pressure and can just air it out. Being a dome game means no weather to worry about even though it's early January. I look for both teams to simply "air it out" in this one in the type of game where the last team with the ball wins. As I have said many times before, the odds makers are not stupid. The reason this total is so high (even though the Falcons have stayed UNDER in NINE straight games) is for exactly the reasons I have noted above. Considering the situation and factors leading into this game, it's got "shootout" written all "OVER" it! The Saints have the worst defense in the league but I don't see the Falcons shutting down Brees and Company...especially with Atlanta off such a big win last week by putting an end to the Panthers unbeaten season. The last time these teams met in Atlanta 71 points were scored. The over is 5-2 in Falcons games where they are a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. The over is 6-2 in the Saints last 8 games heading into this one. Play OVER 52.5 in Atlanta as an *8* selection Sunday.

Rickenbach NFL *8* Cincinnati Bengals +4 @ Denver @ 8:30 ET - Both teams have back-up QBs in this one but I give the edge to McCarron over Osweiler. The Bengals QB was very solid in his first career start and it was on the road where McCarron helped Cincinnati jump all over the 49'ers early and amass a 21-0 lead. The Bengals beat Denver last season in a similar situation as it was a Week 16 Monday night football game in Cincinnati. Even though this game is on the road, the Bengals are 14-5-2 ATS as a road dog. Overall, Cincy comes into this game with an 11-2-1 ATS mark on the season and the Broncos have struggled with Osweiler at the controls. Denver barely snuck by Chicago by 2 points, then were extremely fortunate in their win over the Patriots in OT, and most recently have lost two straight games. The Bengals big road win at San Francisco last week is a huge confidence boost for the team in their first full game without Dalton at QB. In a battle for playoff positioning I see great line value with the Bengals now a dog of more than 3 points in this one. Fade the line move and ride the hotter team in this one. Denver has a tremendous defense but continued struggles on the other side of the ball will prove to be the downfall of the Broncos once again Monday night. 

Rickenbach NFL *8* New York Giants +7 @ Minnesota @ 8:30 ET - This is a contrarian play as most will look at last night's results and figure that the Giants will "lay down" here at Minnesota and get blasted on Sunday night. The fact is that, even though New York was eliminated from the post-season by last night's Redskins win over the Eagles, the Giants are a likely to put up quite a fight tonight. The Giants still have their sights set on finishing at .500 for the season by getting wins this week and next week. Additionally, this is a primetime game and that means all the players want to bring their best efforts to shine under the lights of nighttime football and the national TV cameras. Though the Giants will be without Odell Beckham (suspension), the G-men have plenty of other talented players at the skill positions that are excited about stepping up in this spot under the national spotlight. Also giving value to the Giants here is the fact that it will be bitterly cold in Minnesota tonight. In almost all situations where weather is a factor, it tends to favor the dog. If there is difficulty hanging onto the ball or gripping it properly it means that it is more difficult for the better team to dominate in a way they otherwise might. When it's below 20 degrees fahrenheit outside it can become more difficult to grip the ball properly for QBs and for their receivers to make the catches. The Giants have averaged nearly 30 points per game in their last 7 games while the Vikes, before last week's big win over Chicago, had been held to an average of just 15 points per game in their four prior games. The Giants are 6-2 ATS in games played on turf this season and are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 December games. The Vikings have lost 2 of their last 3 home games and the two defeats came by at least 17 points apiece. The G-men are a dangerous dog here. Play the New York Giants plus the points as an *8* selection Sunday.

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play OVER 40 in Seattle vs St Louis @ 4:25 ET - The Seahawks have scored at least 29 points in 6 straight games! Seattle has averaged 34 points per game during this 6 games stretch and I see no reason for the Seahawks offense to slow down today. In fact, the Hawks are likely to put the pedal to the metal throughout this game as they have seek to avenge a 34-31 loss in overtime at St Louis in their season opener this year. The Seahawks won't let up in this game and the result should be a blowout win. However, don't be surprised if the Rams manage to stay within about 10-14 points of the Hawks in this game. St Louis has some confidence for multiple reasons heading into today's game. For one thing the Rams are off of back to back wins and have averaged 26 points in the two victories. For another, they did put up 34 points against the vaunted Seahawks defense earlier this season. St Louis also has nothing to lose here. They are simply trying to improve for next season and they can play a "wide open" game here as they is certainly no playoff pressure. The Rams are just trying to finish the season strong with some solid efforts. The Rams D won't slow down a Seahawks offense that is firing on all cylinders right now but the St Louis offense should stay hot and will get their fair share of points as well. 3 of the Hawks 4 divisional games have gone over the total this season. Play OVER 40 in Seattle as a *10* Top Play Sunday. 

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play Green Bay Packers +5 @ Arizona @ 4:25 ET - The world is likely to be lining up on the Cardinals here and this line could move up to the 6 point range on this game. However, in the interest of getting my plays out early on this Sunday morning I am releasing this play at +5. It is a great value to have a solid 10-4 Packers team plus significant points. Yes, the Cardinals have been fantastic this season but they will be challenged here by a Green Bay team that is the hungrier of the two teams. The Cards have already locked up the NFC West but the Packers are in a dogfight for the NFC North crown as they battle with the Vikings. Both the Pack and the Cardinals benefited from turnovers in their wins last week and the Cards big win over the Eagles looks much less impressive when you look at how the Eagles performed in their do or die game against the Redskins last night. A key factor that many may overlook here is that the Packers have played a tougher schedule than have the Cardinals this season. I feel this oversight is resulting in extra line value here for Green Bay. The Packers are 5-2 ATS in road games this season and already 3-0 ATS against the NFC West this season. The Cardinals are 2-4 ATS in home games this season and 0-3 ATS against teams with a winning record. As strong as the Cards offense is, their defense has allowed at least 300 passing yards in 3 of their last 4 games. The Packers D has given up 252 passing yards or less in 6 straight games! Green Bay could spring the upset here and certainly there is significant value with the points. Play Green Bay plus the points as a *10* Top Play Sunday.

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play OVER 48 in Philadelphia vs Washington @ 8:25 ET Saturday - The Eagles struggle to stop anybody. Though this is a huge game with massive playoff implications for both teams in this NFC East battle, it is set up to be a shootout. The Redskins have struggled on the road all season long and, even though they were home last week, Washington gave up 452 yards against the Bills. The Eagles gave up nearly 500 yards to Arizona last week. Philadelphia has allowed at least 400 yards of offense in each of their last five games. Being on short rest certainly won't help this weary defense that has given up at least 493 yards in 2 of their last 3 home games. The Redskins have allowed an average of 28 points per game in their last 5 match-ups with the Eagles. Overall, the over is 4-2 in Washington's last 6 games heading into this one and 4-1 in Philly's last 5 games heading into this one. The Redskins, when playing with 6 days of rest or less this season have gone 7-3 to the over. The Eagles offense has been solid with QB Sam Bradford under center but they certainly must cut down on their turnovers. The Eagles have averaged 25 points per game in their last three games and the Redskins have averaged 26 points per game in their last 26 games. I look for the Eagles defense to struggle with QB Cousins but the Eagles offense has been quite solid in their past four home games. This should turn into an absolute shootout as a result. Play OVER 48 in Philadelphia as a *10* Top Play.

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play OVER 46 in Oakland vs San Diego @ 8:25 ET Thursday - The rain expected in Oakland today as well as some wind is helping to keep the posted total down on this game. The fact is that the rain is expected to be gone well before game time and, as you would expect, the winds will be starting to subside because this is an evening game. I'll gladly grab the line value here with the over as there is no reason not to expect a shootout here. The Chargers offense got back on track last week but putting up over 440 yards of offense in their 30-14 win at Miami. The Raiders, as usual, found a way to lose plus give up a bunch of points as their 30-20 loss to the Packers last week was the 5th time in their last 9 games that they've allowed at least 29 points. Of course the reason that Oakland is favored here is that the offense should be able to move the ball very well against a San Diego team that has struggled in road games this season. The Raiders and Chargers both have strong passing attacks and are not afraid to use them! San Diego is averaging 45 pass attempts per game this season (tops in the AFC) and the Raiders have attempted at least 43 passes in four of their last seven games. The over is 5-1 in Oakland's home games this season and the Raiders are 7-2 to the over in their games against AFC opponents. The over is a long-term 84-58 in Chargers games against teams with a losing record. Play OVER 46 in Oakland as a *10* Top Play Thursday.

Rickenbach NFL *8* Detroit Lions +3 @ New Orleans @ 8:30 PM ET - Good underdog line value here. The Lions fell flat last week at St Louis and fell short 21 to 14. Of course it was understandable that Detroit was a little "down" last week as they had lost their prior game in ridiculous fashion with a hail mary on the final play of the game. That long pass by the Packers gave the Lions a brutal divisional loss and left them very sapped of emotion heading into last week's game with the Rams. However, now off of the loss to St Louis, I look for a motivated Detroit group to respond on Monday night football. The Lions are catching the Saints off of a rare win so that certainly helps. Detroit is facing a Saints team that had lost four straight prior to last week's rare win and New Orleans has continued to have trouble on the defensive side of the football despite firing their defensive coordinator. Overall, the Saints continue to rank among the worst defenses in the league while the Lions have allowed an average of just 18.2 points per game in their last 5 games. The Lions have been solid against the pass this season and that will be a key in slowing down the New Orleans offense. At the same time, the Saints defense is unlikely to have any luck slowing down a Lions offense that was surging before last week's lackluster effort at St Louis. The Lions have some bad memories about key losses at the Superdome in years past and they want to erase those today with a strong performance. In a game with no playoff implications you look at motivation and current levels of play as key barometers. That said, the value here is with the underdog Lions. Play Detroit +3 as an *8* selection Monday.

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles +4 vs Arizona @ 8:30 PM ET - Even though the Cardinals have been one of the best teams in the league this season and are currently one of the hottest teams in the league, there is a reason the line on tonight's game is so low. The Eagles are a very dangerous underdog in this spot. Philadelphia will be fired up for hosting this primetime game but truly has no pressure on them. Sure it would help the Eagles to win this game but their most important games are up ahead and against the Redskins and Giants. Philadelphia controls their own playoff destiny but they can get in even with losing today's game. Being able to play loose and being spurred on by the recent return of Sam Bradford means the Eagles are likely to have a big game tonight on their home turf. In home games where Bradford is under center, the Eagles have played well this season. The Cardinals are certainly due credit for how well they've played this season but the schedule has also been quite favorable. In match-ups against potential playoff teams (like the Eagles) Arizona lost to Pittsburgh, gave up 32 points to Seattle, and barely snuck by Cincinnati and Minnesota by a field goal margin each time. The point is that there is a lot of value with this line in the +4 range for the Eagles. In the 11 games that Bradford has played in this season, the Eagles have gone 6-5 and 3 of the 5 losses were by 3 points or less. That said, giving Philly +4 in each of their games with Bradford at QB this season and they would have a 9-2 ATS mark. Philadelphia's linebacking group is much healthier now then it has been earlier this season. They have played as well as they have all season in recent weeks. Yes the Eagles have been giving up some big yardage at times but they are known as a bend but don't break defense and the Eagles are flying high right now off of the back to back wins. The Cardinals do have some extra rest heading into this game but the Arizona injury report shows much more 'damage' than the Eagles injury report heading into this game. The healthy, hungry, and confident Eagles will 'play loose' tonight and I expect that to lead to a huge game for the offense that functions so well when it is running right and Bradford is the most comfortable he's been all season. Play Philadelphia plus the points as a *10* Top Play Sunday.

Rickenbach NFL *8* Pittsburgh Steelers -6 vs Denver @ 4:25 PM ET - Certainly Denver didn't necessarily "deserve" to lose to Oakland as the Broncos did outgain them by a 310-126 margin. However, the concern for the Broncos is simply that they don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with the red hot Steelers in this game. Denver has been held to 17 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games. The one game that Denver did eclipse 17 points was a bit of a fluke as they were down 21-7 to the Patriots in the FOURTH quarter of that game before the Pats essentially gave the game away. Now the struggling Broncos offense (still without Peyton Manning at QB) must try to keep up with a Steelers offense that has averaged 35 points per game in their last 5 games. Pittsburgh has not been held under 35 points in any of their last 5 games. The Steelers have won 4 of their last 5 games while the Broncos have split their last 6 games. Pittsburgh is on a 12-4 ATS run in games against teams with a winning record. Denver is on a 6-10 ATS run when they are off of a divisional game. While I certainly respect the Broncos defense, this is the toughest offense they have seen since facing the Patriots - a game they definitely should have lost. Sunday afternoon look for the Steelers potent offense to key this victory. Play Pittsburgh -6 as an *8* selection Sunday.

Rickenbach NFL *10* OVER 42 in Seattle vs Cleveland @ 4:05 PM ET - There was some rain in Seattle this morning but the heavier showers will have moved away by gametime so it's no concern here. The Seahawks offense has been one of the best in the NFL in recent weeks as Seattle has averaged 35 points per game and 450 yards per game in their last four games. Overall the Seahawks have won 6 of their last 7 and have regained the swagger they seemed to have lost earlier this season. I look for another huge day from the Seattle offense today but don't be surprised if the Browns hang around in this one by putting up some solid points of their own in this one. Cleveland produced nearly 500 yards of offense last week and it was the 2nd time in the past three weeks that the Browns put up at least 24 points on the scoreboard. Seattle has allowed at least 27 points in 3 of their last 4 home games and the defense could reflect a dropoff in intensity this week as they are off back to back road wins that were a little bit "too easy". This is when teams tend to get too comfortable and I expect the Hawks defense to have some issues with that this week. But, that said, there is no stopping this Seahawks offense right now and that is why I am expecting a ton of points in the Pacific Northwest on Sunday. Play OVER 42 in Seattle as a *10* Top Play Sunday.

Rickenbach NFL *8* Houston Texans +2 @ Indianapolis @ 1 PM ET - Both of these teams are off of bad losses last week but the Texans faced an angry and ultra-talented Patriots team that was fired up off of back to back losses. The Colts would struggle to find an excuse for their abysmal performance against the Jaguars last week. Indianapolis got blasted by Jacksonville and has now lost their last two games by a combined score of 96 to 26. The Colts performance (or lack thereof) on defense has been very concerning of late. That makes this a touch match-up for Indianapolis as they face a Texans team that has one of the top defenses in the league and that has been performing particularly well in recent weeks. Houston has allowed 313 yards or less in 5 of their last 6 games! The Texans are seeking revenge from a 27-20 home loss to the Colts earlier this season and will take advantage of Andrew Luck's absence today. Indianapolis is 1-4 ATS this season as a favorite. The Texans are 2-0 ATS this season (and 42-25 ATS long-term) when they enter a game on a losing streak of two games or more. Play Houston +2 as an *8* selection Sunday.

Rickenbach NFL *8* New York Jets -3 @ Dallas @ 8:25 ET - The Cowboys had a glimmer of hope of staying alive in the NFC East playoff race after the big Monday night win at Washington two weeks ago. However, even though they are still mathematically alive, the Cowboys have really hurt themselves with last week's loss at Green Bay. With all 3 of the other NFC East teams sitting at 6-7 on the season and Dallas a full two games back at 4-9 with just 3 games to go, the Cowboys know the handwriting is on the wall. Their playoff hopes are, for all intents and purposes, truly over. Dallas, after producing just 7 points on only 11 first downs and 270 yards at Green Bay last week, now has to host a Jets team playing with a ton of energy and emotion. The Jets have ripped off three straight wins to vault right into the AFC Wild Card race with a solid 8-5 record. This match-up Saturday is a classic case of two teams at the opposite end of the motivation/emotion scale and I look for the Jets to win this one in a road rout. The Jets have produced over 400 yards of offense in each of their last three games. The Cowboys have been held under 318 yards in each of their last three games. Look for Dallas to drop to 1-6 ATS in home games this season while the Jets improve to 9-2 ATS in December games the last three seasons combined. Play the New York Jets -3 as an *8* selection Saturday.

Rickenbach NFL *8* Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 @ St Louis @ 8:25 ET Thursday - A lot of line movement toward the Rams here has opened up some nice line value for the Bucs here. St Louis is off of a win against the Lions on Sunday but the Rams had previously lost five straight games and three of those losses came by a margin of defeat of 24 points. That said, I see great line value with being able to get the Buccaneers at a full +3 in this game. Tampa Bay is off of a loss at New Orleans but had won three of their four prior games. The Bucs also are seeking revenge here for a home loss to the Rams last season. The Buccaneers have taken advantage when facing weaker competition this season as Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in their games against teams with a losing record. The Bucs are also 4-2 ATS in road games this season and, again, great value with getting the full field goal here. St Louis is 4-10 SU and 4-9-1 ATS the last three seasons in games with a line in a range of -3 to +3. The Rams don't have a good history with Thursday games either as they are 1-5 ATS in these weekday affairs. The Bucs defense has struggled recently against the pass but the Rams have one of the worst passing attacks in the league so St Louis will be unable to take advantage. That said, Tampa Bay's recent run of success at stopping the run continues here and that should turn this one into a nice road win for the Bucs. Take the better offense, off of a loss, and playing with home loss revenge. Play Tampa Bay +3 as an *8* selection Thursday.

Rickenbach NFL *8* Miami Dolphins +2 vs NY Giants @ 8:30 ET Monday - The Giants continue to find ways to lose games even when they have the late lead. This team just can't be trusted right now. Also, could Eli Manning's ankle be a bother to him tonight? You know the Dolphins defense tonight will be designed to pressure him early and often. As for the other side of the ball, much has been made of Ryan Tannehill's poor performance last week but he was off of a huge game against the Jets the week before. Also, the Giants are last in the league for sack percentage on defense. The inability of the Giants front line to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks has a lot to do with the secondary consistently getting burned as the Giants have the worst pass defense in the league. They were torched by the Jets last week and that's the same Jets team that Tannhehill just had a huge game against two weeks ago. The Giants only managed 14 first downs against the Jets. The Dolphins had 20 first downs in their game against the Jets. Miami is 3-1 straight-up and ATS in home games with a posted total between 45.5 and 49 points. The fact that a high-scoring game is expected here has mean going strong with the Dolphins. I feel their defense at home can be trusted much moreso than the Giants defense on the road to get the key stops necessary to win this game. The Giants defense has failed them so many times in the fourth quarter of games too. If you're looking for the Giants to bounce back just because they've lost three straight you may be disappointed. The Giants are 5-10 straight-up when they enter a game on a streak of two or more consecutive losses. Also, the Giants are 1-3 straight-up and ATS in their last 4 Monday night appearances. The Dolphins win over the Ravens last week was not pretty but it is a victory they can build off while the Giants sink further into their current state of a true meltdown. Play Miami as an *8* selection Monday night.

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play New England Patriots -4.5 @ Houston @ 8:30 ET - The Patriots should blast the Texans here. JJ Watt's injury is a significant concern as it's not just the broken hand, it's the groin injury that is effecting him. The Patriots lost to the Eagles last week for a RARE second straight loss but they ougained Philadelphia by nearly 200 yards in the game. The same blunders (including special teams) that impacted them last week are unlikely to occur again this week. Of course with Tom Brady we have a huge edge at the QB position with comparing these two teams and the Patriots are extremely hungry and have not lost three straight games since 2002. The Texans defense has been getting a lot of positive press but they truly are impacted by the Watt injury and the fact they got shredded throughout the first half of the game against the Bills last week is cause for concern. Some of their other big recent performances had a lot to do with facing weak opposition. Even with some of his weapons being hurt, Brady still has plenty of options to go to and he and coach Belichick can absolutely pick apart this Texans defense. Look for the Pats to improve upon a 54-34 ATS record when in the last four weeks of the regular season. Also, New England is 22-13 ATS against AFC South opposition. The Texans are in trouble as the Patriots are angry, focused, and ready to operate at precision under the primetime lights Sunday night.

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play Green Bay Packers -5.5 vs Dallas @ 4:25 ET - The Packers were indeed fortunate in their win at Detroit in last week's action. However, a win like that can also do wonders for a team's momentum and this is especially true when that team is now at home and also now in a tie for first place in their division. Green Bay comes into this game with extra rest since they faced the Lions in a Thursday night game last week. Also, they catch Dallas on short rest as the Cowboys battled the Redskins in Washington last week. That huge Cowboys win was the first for Dallas without Romo under center this season. The Cowboys are still just 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS in games that Romo has not started at QB for Dallas this season. I look for the Cowboys to get blasted on the road here. Huge home field edge for Green Bay here and the big rest edge is just adding even more line value. This line has dropped on gameday morning and that is adding even more value to this play. Green Bay is 18-9-1 ATS as a home favorite facing a non-divisional foe. Dallas has been held to 20 points or less in 7 of their last 9 games. The Cowboys anemic offense is going to struggle to keep up with a Packers offense that has scored at least 27 points in 7 of their 12 games this season. Look for Dallas to drop to 2-7 ATS in games not started by Romo while Rodgers and Company, rejuvenated by last week's results, roll at home here and improve on a long-term 60-36 ATS mark in December games.

Rickenbach NFL *8* Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 @ Cincinnati @ 1 ET - Steelers seek revenge for home loss to Cincinnati earlier this season. Roethlisberger was rusty in that game as he had just returned from injury. There is certainly nothing rusty about the way the Pittsburgh QB has been playing now. The Steelers will build off of their absolutely dominating effort against the Colts on Sunday night by upsetting the Bengals on the road here. Going to grab the points but don't expect to need them. Steelers have been piling up yardage like crazy. The Bengals offense truly has not been as strong as some of their recent point totals would lead you to believe. Just take a look at the yardage stats for further evidence of that. Also, Cincinnati is 3-2 in their 5 games since facing the Steelers but they beat a 2-10 Browns team twice and a 4-8 St Louis team in the other game. The Bengals lost both of their games against tougher competition (Houston and Arizona) and Cincy now faces a red hot Steelers offense. Pittsburgh is on an 8-1 ATS run in December games. I don't see trend ending here. Pitt is fired up about finishing the season strong with Big Ben under center and healthy again. Key game for post-season aspirations of the Steelers and they get the job done here.

Rickenbach NFL *8* Philadelphia Eagles +1 vs Buffalo @ 1 ET - The Eagles were certainly fortunate in their huge upset win at New England last week. However, don't discount the fact that Philadelphia made plays when they had to on offense and certainly the defense and special teams made huge plays to be catalysts for the win. With that victory the Eagles are now tied for first place in the NFC East and that has done wonders for the locker room. What has also done wonders for the locker room in terms of adding motivation for this game Sunday is all the 'chalk board material' that Bills RB, and former Eagle, LeSean McCoy has been providing. The Eagles defense is fired up beyond belief for this game. At the same time, the offense is absolutely going to take advantage of a Bills defense that has been ravaged by injuries including losing some of their best players heading into this game. Buffalo is on a 13-24 ATS run as a road dog of 3 points or less. The Eagles are on a 17-11 ATS run against teams from the AFC East. Huge edge here with the line in a pick'em range, the Eagles at home, the Bills defense hurting, and with McCoy giving the Eagles plenty of motivation - not that they needed it, playoffs are in sight for Philly after last week's results.

Rickenbach NFL *8* OVER 41 in St Louis vs Detroit @ 1 ET - Look for the Rams offense to get a boost with Case Keenum at QB. Certainly things can't get much worse for the St Louis offense but the fact is that a QB change at a time like this can do wonders for a team and the Rams will certainly come into this game relaxed as they are truly at a point of just "playing out the string" on the season. What will help their offense here is that I expect the Lions defense to be a little flat after the emotional impact of losing on a hail mary pass on the final play of their game against a key division rival, the Packers, last week. That really was a crushing blow for the Lions and their defensive intensity is likely to suffer here as a result. On the other side of the ball, the Detroit offense certainly has been firing on all cylinders and they averaged nearly 260 passing yards per game in their last four games. Having scored an average of 34 points per game their last two games, Detroit's offense is unlikely to be slowed down by a Rams defense that has allowed 140 rushing yards or more in four of their last five games. St Louis also has given up an average of 280 passing yards per game the last four games. The Over is 4-0 in Rams games where they are a home dog of three points or less. The over is 13-6 in Lions games where they are a road favorite of three points or less. 

Rickenbach NFL *8* OVER 45.5 in Arizona vs Minnesota @ 8:25 ET - The Vikings defense is loaded with injuries right now including some of their top defensive players. Now Minnesota, all banged up, must go on the road and face a Cardinals offense that ranks among the best in the league. The Cards certainly could have scored more than 27 points last week as they erupted for over 500 yards off offense. That was the 4th time in their last seven games that Arizona has gained over 450 yards. The Vikings won't be able to stop them. This will result in Minnesota having to abandon their ground game and get QB Bridgewater to get the ball down the field early and often. He and the Vikings offense are eager to atone for an embarrassing performance at home against Seattle last week while the Cardinals defense could get caught here feeling a little too good about themselves after their dominating effort at St Louis last week. The Cards are 4-1 to the over in their home games this season. Arizona also is 6-2 to the over when off of a divisional win and 15-8 to the over in their last 23 as a favorite. The Vikings have mostly been an 'under team' this season but all the defensive injuries coupled with the fact that Vikes will have to throw the ball to try and keep up with the potent Cardinals offense here has me liking the over quite a lot in this one. Look for Bridgewater and company to get some redemption this week but their defense is likely to get ripped apart by the potent Cardinals offense. Play OVER 45.5 in Arizona as an *8* selection.

Rickenbach NFL *8* Dallas Cowboys +4 @ Washington @ 8:30 PM ET Monday - The Cowboys are again without Tony Romo but their loss to Carolina on Thanksgiving Day was deceiving. Turnovers were the key as Dallas did hold the Panthers to just 294 yards of offense in that game. In fact, the Cowboys have now held five of their last six opponents to 327 yards of offense or less. This has all come since the bye week and, even in their final game before the bye week Dallas held New England to 356 yards. I like having the dog here in a primetime affair where motivation will be high (not to mention the fact this game is huge for Dallas to get back into the NFC East race). Also, the Cowboys have won 3 of their last 4 meetings with the Redskins and the lone loss came by just three points. Dallas has averaged 147 rushing yards per game in their last three road games. I look for the rested Cowboys to establish the run early against the Skins defense and I look for yet another solid performance from the Dallas defense to key this road upset win. I am grabbing the points but expecting the outright win. The Cowboys are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games played on grass. The Redskins are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games against teams with a losing record. The Skins have been held to 20 points or less in five of their last seven games. Washington has been held to 270 yards of offense or less in 4 of those 7 games. Look for the Redskins to again struggle in the role of a favorite. It's been an issue with Washington for a long time.

Rickenbach NFL *8* Pittsburgh Steelers -7.5 vs Indianapolis @ 8:30 ET Sunday - The Steelers put up over 500 yards of offense on the road at Seattle last week. That's not an easy thing to do at the home of the "12th Man". What is also not an easy thing to do is to put up over 500 yards of offense and still lose the game. Needless to say, the Steelers are fired up here after the tough defeat on the road and Pittsburgh is known for dominating in these primetime games. Look for the Steelers to bounce back off of that tough loss as they have some good game planning in place to put a stop the Colts improbable recent run. Indy's QB, Hasselbeck, is now 4-0 as a starter on the season but certainly Indianapolis has taken advantage of facing some weaker opposition and that all comes to an end this week as they face the Steelers in Pittsburgh and in primetime action and in a situation where the opposing defense will have their ears pinned back. The Steelers D was not happy at all about all the missed tackles and poor tackling last week and they will be extremely fired up for a huge performance on national TV tonight. Pittsburgh has gone 7-1 ATS in the month of December the past two seasons. Also, the Steelers are on a 10-4 ATS run in games against team with a winning record. The Colts are on 9-14 ATS run as a road dog of 7.5 to 10 points. Just like last year's 17 point victory in their match-up with Indy, look for the Steelers to get another blowout win here. Play Pittsburgh minus the points as an *8* selection Sunday night. 

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play OVER 43.5 in San Diego vs Denver @ 4:05 ET Sunday - The Broncos are coming off of their amazing come from behind win over the Patriots last week. That ended New England's undefeated season and also means that Denver is now 2-0 with Osweiler at QB. While I do expect Osweiler and the Broncos offense to enjoy continued success here against the weak defense of the Chargers, I also expect the Broncos defense to be a little flat after the big win over New England. It's inevitable after the emotional high of shutting down Tom Brady and Company and, keep in mind, the Patriots are really hurting with injuries to the offense right now. That said, the Broncos defensive performance against the Pats may not be as impressive as one might think. Now Denver has to face a Chargers offense that, thanks to Rivers at QB, is one of the top passing offenses in the league. Also, San Diego is much healthier than the Patriots offense is right now. The Chargers will get their share of big points here but the San Diego defense has struggled all season. They particularly have been getting gashed on the ground and this will allow Denver to get the ground game going and open things up for a big aerial attack from Osweiler and Company in this one. The over is 5-1 in Chargers home games with posted total between 42.5 and 45 points. The over is 9-5 in the Broncos last 14 games against teams with a losing record. Play OVER 43.5 in San Diego as a *10* Top Play Sunday.

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play Oakland Raiders +3 vs Kansas City @ 4:05 ET Sunday - This is a classic contrarian play. With the Chiefs having won and covered 5 straight games why would they only be a 3 point favorite against an Oakland team that has a combined 12-31 record the last 3 seasons combined? Seriously...think about that for a moment...and the conclusion you come to is that, indeed, it does not make sense! That is precisely a key reason as to why Oakland is the play here. The reason the Chiefs are such a small favorite here is because they are off some big wins and they've also been very fortunate. The turnover margin is 14-0 in favor of the Chiefs in their last five games. Certainly some credit goes to Kansas City for achieving that margin but, make no mistake about it, the ball has been bouncing their way. Now the Chiefs face a hungry Raiders team that definitely has its sights set on moving into a 2nd place tie in the AFC West with Kansas City by getting a big home win today. Note that the Chiefs allowed over 400 yards to the Bills last week and that game was in Kansas City. The Chiefs were fortunate to get that win and now head west to face a Raiders aerial attack that has produced at least 282 passing yards in 5 of their last 6 games. Oakland has averaged 26 points per game in their last 6 games. The Raiders defense has been quite solid in recent games and allowed less than 250 yards at Tennessee last week. Oakland is 6-2 ATS against AFC teams this season and the Raiders are 5-2 ATS as an underdog. The Chiefs are 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS this season in road games with a posted total between 42.5 and 45 points. Play Oakland +3 as a *10* Top Play Sunday.

Rickenbach NFL *8* OVER 43 in St Louis vs Arizona @ 1 ET Sunday - Big revenge game for the Cardinals as they lost 24-22 at home against the Rams back in early October. Of course what this means is that Arizona is going to keep the hammer down in this one even if they do get a big lead and that is why the over is a strong play here. The Cardinals won't take their foot off of the gas in this one and this is an Arizona team that has averaged 32 points per game this season. As for the Cardinals defense, they were fortunate to only allow 13 points to the 49'ers last week as San Francisco threw for over 300 yards against them. Look for Nick Foles to have a big game for the Rams as he steps back in as the starter at QB this week. The St Louis offense has been victimized by turnovers in recent weeks so don't be fooled by their low recent point totals. The Rams can put up some big points here. The Cardinals defense had allowed an average of 28 points per game in their last three games before holding San Francisco to just 13 points. As noted above, that low point total was a bit of a fluke when you look at the success in the passing game that the Niners were able to achieve. That said, look for plenty of success for both offenses in this one on the fast track turf in the dome in St Louis. The Rams are 16-10 to the over in dome games. Arizona is 5-1 to the over in dome games this season and the Cardinals are 6-1 to the over the last three seasons when they are off of a win against a division rival. Play OVER 43 in St Louis as an *8* selection Sunday.

Rickenbach NFL *10* Detroit Lions +3 vs Green Bay @ 8:25 ET Thursday - Many may be looking for Detroit to be flat after their big Thanksgiving win over the Eagles and for the Packers to be in full bounce back mode are their Thanksgiving loss to the Bears. In fact, that is what is helping to give line value to the home dog Lions here. The fact is that this is a case of two teams heading in opposite directions but we can take advantage of line value being offered because of traditional market metrics. The traditional market adjustments would suggest that the Packers need to bounce back off of a loss, the Lions will be flat off of a big win, and Green Bay will be fired up to avenge their home loss to Green Bay a few weeks back. The reality though is that the Packers have lost four of their last five games since their bye week while Detroit has won three straight games since their bye week. The Lions are peaking at the right time and have played exceptionally well on both sides of the ball the last two weeks. The Packers have struggled so much recently that there is a bit of weakness now in this locker room and the same confident swagger this team had before just isn't there right now as injuries have certainly also impacted that factor as well. Detroit has won and covered the last two meetings here by a combined score of 59 to 17 and the Lions have a ton of confidence heading into this game. The Packers are on a 4-11 ATS run in games against teams with a losing record (as GB continues to be overvalued) while I look for the Lions to improve to 4-0 SU and ATS in their last 4 Thursday games! Play Detroit plus the points as a *10* Top Play Thursday.

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play New England Patriots -2.5 @ Denver @ 8:30 ET Sunday - Bill Belichick is going to have a field day with Brock Osweiler. Sure the Broncos QB had a good first NFL career start against a 4-6 Bears team last week but now he faces the 10-0 Patriots and NFL mastermind Belihick. The Patriots head coach has long been known for throwing confusing defensive schematics at young, in experienced QBs and you know that Belichick will have some tricks up his sleeve for this one. The Broncos were fortunate to escape Chicago with a victory and the QB situation here of Tom Brady over Osweiler makes this play a very safe bet barring any unforeseen nonsense in this game. New England's defense has quietly shut down 3 of their last 4 opponents as the Pats have allowed just 10 points per game in those 3 games. Denver's defense has been the 'headliner' this season but the Broncos now face the top ranked offense in the league. Also, Denver's defense did allow 28 points per game in their two games prior to sneaking out the win over the Bears. New England has won the last two regular season meetings between the teams but lost in the playoffs in Denver in January of 2014. That means it's time for a little payback on Sunday and, as noted above, a huge key is going to be how Belichick's D completely frustrates the young Denver QB while Brady and Company continue their solid season on the other side of the ball. Yes, the Pats offense certainly has a few injury issues but this team is still an offensive juggernaut that will get the job done in the mile high city tonight. A little snow is not a bother to the Pats. Play England -2.5 as a *10* Top Play Sunday night.

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play OVER 45.5 in Seattle vs Pittsburgh @ 4:25 ET Sunday - The Steelers are fresh off of their bye week and have averaged over 400 passing yards per game in their last two games. The Seahawks are showing a boost in confidence as they've now won 3 of their last 4 games and have averaged 30.5 points in their last two games while producing over 500 yards of offense last week! Pittsburgh has averaged 34 points per game in their last two games and I am expecting a wild one in Seattle Sunday. The Steelers have been boosted with the return of Ben Roethlisberger and the Seahawks defense has allowed at least 27 points in half their games this season. Pittsburgh has a solid offense that will test the Seahawks defense early and often and the Hawks D just isn't quite the dominant force it once was. As for the Steelers defense, they have struggled to stop the pass and even with Marshawn Lynch out it is not like Pittsburgh can ignore the run game of Seattle. RB Rawls posted 255 total yards last week and had two TD's and his running ability is opening up the aerial attack for the Seahawks who looked much sharper on offense last week. They are settling into a nice rhythm offensively and both teams should move the ball extremely well here. Seattle has gone over the total in 4 of their last 6 games and they're 3-0 to the over this season in games against teams with a winning record. Also, the over is 9-2 in Seahawks games against the AFC the last 3 seasons combined. The over is 8-3 in Steelers games against the NFC the last 3 seasons combined. Play OVER the total in Seattle as a *10* Top Play.

Rickenbach NFL *8* OVER 45 in San Francisco vs Arizona @ 4:05 ET Sunday - The Cardinals are off of back to back highly charged emotional games. They played at Seattle two weeks ago and got the outright upset on the road. Then, last week, the Cards got the home win over the Bengals in a game that was also on Sunday night and that QB Carson Palmer wanted badly as Arizona faced his former team, Cincinnati. Off of back to back big games like this it would not surprise me to see the Cardinals defense be a little soft in this game today and I feel strongly that this will lead to some success for a 49'ers offense that is moving the ball better now without Colin Kaepernick in there. The Cardinals certainly have some weaknesses on defense as they've allowed 63 points in their two games since the bye week. The 49'ers threw for 247 yards against the Seahawks last week and that was their best performance through the air in over a month. Against an emotionally spent Cardinals defense, look for the 49'ers to put up some solid points at home but they won't stop an Arizona offense that has quickly become one of the best in the league. The Niners defense gave up over 500 yards to Seattle last week and now they must contend with a Cardinals offense that has averaged 33 points per game in winning 4 straight games heading into this match-up. The Cards are already 8-2 to the over this season and this looks like the ideal spot for another. Play OVER 45 in San Francisco as an *8* selection Sunday.

Rickenbach NFL *8* Washington Redskins +3 vs NY Giants @ 1:00 ET Sunday - The Giants are off of their bye week but New York is actually 0-2 ATS when off of a bye week and, long-term the Giants have covered just 11 times in 29 chances when off of a bye week! As for the Redskins, certainly they did not perform well at all at Carolina last week but they are a different team when playing in Washington. This season the Redskins have won 4 of their 5 home games and the average score edge has been 27 to 18 and Washington has outgained opponents by an average of nearly 100 yards per game in home games this season. The Giants are only a .500 team on the season so not a lot separates these two teams and the Redskins are certainly fired up about the prospect of tying up the Giants for first place in the NFC East (or should I say NFC Least) standings! With that said, there is great value here with a home dog getting about a field goal against a team, the Giants, that has been outgained by an average of over 100 yards per game in their road games this season. Look for a big difference maker in this game to be the Redskins pass defense which is vastly superior to that of the Giants - last in the league. Play Washington plus the points as an *8* selection early Sunday.

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play Chicago Bears +9 @ Green Bay @ 8:30 PM ET - Weather can be the great equalizer...not that a big equalizer is needed in this match-up anyway...but the fact remains that rainy and cold conditions at Lambeau Field do favor the big dog. Weather like this can make it difficult for the better team to 'impose their will' but, in this case, just how much better are the Packers anyway. Green Bay had lost three straight games before getting that big road win over the Vikes on Sunday. As for the Bears, after struggling in their first three games this season they truly have turned things around. Chicago has won 4 of their last 7 games but what is most impressive about this stretch is that the three losses have come by 3 points or less. In other words, the Bears have not lost a game by a margin of more than field goal since all the way back in September in Week 3 of the season. Chicago will again be ultra-competitive on Thursday night as their offense is averaging more yards per game than the Packers and actually giving up less yards than the Packers defense as well. Truly this line is inflated due to the long-term perceptions about each of these teams and the reality is there is not a big difference separating these teams especially when you look at how each is performing in recent weeks. With the added value of the weather benefiting the dangerous dog I look for the Packers to be in a battle just to win this game...let alone cover the inflated spread. The Bears are 4-1 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. The Packers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with a losing record as they tend to play down to the level of competition. Play Chicago +9 as a *10* Top Play Thursday.

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play OVER 45 in Dallas vs Carolina @ 4:30 ET - The Cowboys shut down a pedestrian Dolphins offense last week but they face a much bigger challenge this week. Carolina is averaging 30 points per game this season and off of a blowout win over Washington last week as QB Cam Newton is really 'in the zone' right now with 5 TDs last week. Even though the offensive numbers for Dallas are not strong this season that has to do with all the time that QB Tony Romo has needed. The Cowboys, with Romo at the controls, are quite simply a different offense. They have averaged 25 points per game in the games he's started this season. Also, the Dallas defense has struggled at home this season. Overall, the Cowboys are known for struggling at home in recent years and the D has had a lot to do with that. The one exception this season was when they held Seattle to just 13 points. In the other 4 games this season Dallas gave up an average of 32 points per game. With rain expected in the DFW area on Thanksgiving Day it is likely the roof will be closed which is going to lead to a dome-like setting for this game and I expect both teams to be on the fast track on offense in this one. The Panthers are 8-4 to the over in games played on turf the last 3 seasons combined. Carolina is also 5-1 to the over in games against the NFC this season. Play OVER 45 in Dallas as a *10* Top Play on Thursday.

Rickenbach NFL *8* Philadelphia Eagles +2.5 @ Detroit @ 12:30 PM ET - The Lions are getting a lot of attention from the betting markets but last time I checked this is still a Lions team that is 3-7 on the season even AFTER getting back to back wins the last two weeks. Each of those victories were tight ones and that's because the Lions anemic offense has averaged just 16 points per game in their last 4 games. Detroit simply won't be able to keep up with Philly in this one. The Eagles are averaging 25 points per game in their last six games and, even with Sanchez at QB, have been moving the ball well enough. They just need to avoid costly turnovers as that has plagued them each of the last two weeks. I feel last week was rock bottom for Philly and there will be a huge response this week after the embarrassing 45-17 loss they took at the hands of Tampa Bay last week. The Eagles are 4-1 SU and ATS when they are a road dog of 3 points or less. Also, Philadelphia is 8-3 ATS in November games the past three seasons combined. In road games with a posted total between 42.5 and 45 points the Eagles have gone a perfect 3-0 ATS. Detroit enters this game off of back to back wins and the Lions are 1-8 ATS when they enter a game off of two or more consecutive wins. Detroit also is 1-7 ATS in all games with a posted total between 42.5 and 49 points this season. Play Philadelphia plus the points as an *8* selection Thursday.

Rickenbach NFL *8* OVER 48 in New England vs Buffalo @ 8:30 PM ET - Even though the Patriots have now lost Edelman as well, the health of their offensive line has improved some heading into this game. That is a key factor as Brady should have a little more time now with the better protection and the extra time in a protected pocket will allow him to get the ball down the field. The Bills offense is also quite dynamic now that they are healthy and they have a great 1-2 punch at RB and a talented group of receiving targets for dangerous QB Taylor who can beat you with his legs as well as his arm. The first game between these teams totaled 72 points and another high-scoring match-up would not surprise. Even though it will be cold at Foxboro the skies will be clear and winds will be light. Both teams can be fully functional on offense in these weather conditions. The over is 3-1 in the last 4 match-ups between these teams. The Bills game against the Jets last Thursday stayed under the total but Buffalo had previously gone over in 3 straight games. New England is 3-0 to the over this season in their games against teams with a winning record and the Pats are 14-7 to the over the last 3 seasons combined in games against teams with a winning record. The Bills are 3-1 to the over in divisional games this season. Play OVER 48 in New England as an *8* play Monday.

Rickenbach NFL *8* OVER 48 in Arizona vs Cincinnati @ 8:30 ET Sunday - Cincinnati is off of a surprising low-scoring loss to the Texans on Monday night. Prior to that defeat the Bengals had averaged nearly 29 points per game and gone 7-0 on the season. I look for the Cincy offense to get right back on track here as the Cardinals defense is off of a grueling effort in hanging on for a key divisional win at Seattle last week on Sunday night. As strong as the Cardinals defense has been overall this season they have given up an average of 242 passing yards per game in their last five games. They will have their hands full with a Bengals offense that is fired up and ready to bounce back after being held to just 6 points last week against Houston. The over is 7-2 in Arizona's games this season and the Cardinals potent offense certainly is unlikely to be held in check by the Bengals defense. Cincinnati has allowed an average of 286 passing yards per game in their last 3 road games. The Bengals have been fortunate in many games this season because of a 'bend but don't break' defense but there is likely to be more 'breaking' going on with facing a potent Cardinals offense on the road. The over is 6-3 when the Bengals are off of a Monday night football game and the over is 6-3 when Cincinnati is playing a non-conference opponent. The Cardinals are 6-1 to the over as a home fave of 3.5 to 7 points and Arizona is 5-1 to the over when off of a win against a division rival.

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play Green Bay Packers +1 @ Minnesota @ 4:25 ET - As longtime followers know, I love to go with contrarian plays and this is certainly another one of those. This definitely looks like a trap line. The Vikings are at home and they've been rolling and the Packers are on the road and are struggling in recent weeks. Additionally, Minnesota is playing with revenge as they have not won any of the past four games between these division rivals. With all that said, why would this game be in a pick 'em price range? Especially when you consider that the Vikings have won five straight games and covered 8 straight games while the Packers have now lost three straight? That's why the NFL is known for being successful toward contrarian handicappers. We want to fade what the public will think and the Vikings are definitely a public play in a situation like this. The way I see it is a huge response coming from the Packers as they are so hungry and so fired up while the Vikings get caught "going through the motions" as they come into this game feeling just a little too good about themselves! Note that Green Bay has the better passing attack in this match-up and the weather, though cold, is expected to be cloudy with rather light winds and no precipitation. That adds up to a nice situation for the Packers to get their powerful offense back into high gear after some recent struggles. Green Bay did hold the Lions under 300 yards in last week's loss while the Vikings gave up nearly 400 yards of offense against the Raiders last week. Look for the Packers to get the much needed win here and tighten up the race the in the NFC North.  

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play OVER 44.5 in San Diego vs Kansas City @ 4:05 ET - The Chargers will have fresh legs off of their bye week and I expect their offense to enjoy great success against a Chiefs team that is off a huge divisional win. Kansas City badly wanted that revenge game against Denver and now the Chiefs defense could get caught a little flat footed against a potent Chargers passing attack that is arguably the #1 passing offense in the league. Phillip Rivers and company have been rolling but yet San Diego has continued to lose games so there is no doubt the Chargers are fired up about producing a huge effort on offense this week as this team is still very hungry. The issue for San Diego is that their defense has struggled to stop anybody as the Chargers have given up 28 points per game on the year. Kansas City comes into this game having averaged 32 points per game in their last 3 games and they have plenty of confidence on the offensive side of the ball heading into this game. The over is 5-1 in Chargers home games where the posted total is between 42.5 and 45 points. The over is 21-11 in Chiefs road games where they are a favorite of 3 points or less. Also, the Chiefs over is 5-1 when, in the second half of a season they are facing a team with a losing record. 

Rickenbach NFL *8* Houston Texans +3.5 vs New York Jets @ 1 ET - This is a contrarian play as the Texans are now without their starting QB and therefore Tyler Yates will be getting the start for Houston today. However, contrarian plays generally work quite well in the NFL and I certainly like the way the Texans have been playing of late. They have been very stingy to their opponents on defense and the Jets are not known for their offensive prowess. With that said, look for the Jets to struggle moving the ball here and I would not be surprised to see them also again struggle with turnovers. The Jets turned it over 4 times last week and the Texans have forced 9 turnovers in their last 4 games. Houston has allowed just 6 points in each of their last two games and they have won 3 of their last 4 games while the Jets have lost 3 of their last 4 games. With the Jets losing a key divisional game last week while the Texans scored a big upset in their divisional game last week, this is clearly a case of two teams heading in opposite directions right now. That said, there is great value with grabbing the points with the undervalued home dog.

Rickenbach NFL *8* OVER 41 in Chicago vs Denver @ 1 ET - This is a contrarian play as most will be looking at the under in this match-up. That's because all you've been hearing in the weather news is all the snow in Chicago and in NFL news it's been all about Peyton Manning being out. Here's the reality of the situation...the weather will be cold in Chicago Sunday but no precipitation is expected and winds will be light. Also, Brock Osweiler is likely to move this offense much better than many are expecting. Keep in mind, Manning hasn't exactly been running the offense with the smoothest of efficiency has he's been hurting for some time. Also, even with Manning having struggles recently, the Broncos recorded just one under in their past four games. Look for Osweiler to step in and get this offense rolling again and he will be helped by facing a Bears defense that ranks among the worst in the league at stopping the run. Look for the Broncos to quickly establish the ground game which will then open up things up nicely for the aerial attack of Denver. The Bears offense has been coming on strong in recent weeks. Chicago, off of a 37-19 win last week, is averaging 28 points per game in their last 4 games. Denver, before scoring just 13 points last week, was averaging 26 points per game in their three prior games. Also, the highly touted Denver defense has allowed at least 23 points in 3 of their last 4 games. 

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play OVER 42 in Jacksonville vs Tennessee @ 8:25 ET Thursday - With this line now dropping to the key number of 42, this play easily qualified as a Top Play selection for me. The Jaguars and Titans are both coming off of unders but the Jags allowed nearly 400 yards in their game and were fortunate to hold the Ravens to just 20 points (4 Baltimore turnovers were the key). Tennessee's game staying under last week had a whole lot to do with facing the tough defense of Carolina. The Panthers possess one of the top defenses in the NFL. This week the Titans will be going against a Jacksonville defense that is allowing 28 points per game to rank among the league's worst. Tennessee is allowing 24 points per game and has struggled against the run for much of this season while the Jaguars have struggled against the pass. Remember that the Titans threw for nearly 400 yards in their upset of the Saints two weeks ago. They will do some damage tonight against this week Jags pass defense. Jacksonville is averaging 26 points per game in their last five games while Tennessee put up 34 points on New Orleans in their most recent road game. The Jaguars are 4-1 to the over in games played on grass this season while the Titans are 4-1 to the over this season in games with a line between +3 and -3. Play OVER 42 in Jacksonville as a *10* Top Play Thursday.

Rickenbach NFL *8* OVER 46.5 in Cincinnati vs Houston @ 8:30 ET - Houston got some swagger back with their win versus Tennessee before their bye week. The Texans have averaged 26 points per game in their last 3 games and their passing game has been particularly solid of late. The Texans are averaging nearly 300 passing yards per game in their last 5 games. The Bengals defense has looked great defending the pass against teams like the Browns and Seahawks - faced both when having major issues moving the ball through the air. However, in their other 4 recent games, Cincinnati's pass defense has given up an average of 301.5 passing yards per game. Look for both teams to enjoy plenty of success through the air tonight as the weather conditions also are expected to be ideal in Cincinnati. We're getting some line value with this total because the Bengals have given up just 10 points in each of their last two games and the Texans allowed only 6 points in their most recent game. The opponents that were faced and their QB situations in those games certainly played a role in the low point totals achieved. This game has the makings of a back and forth high-scoring match-up as both teams come in confident with recent strong performances on offense. The Bengals have averaged 30 points per game at home this season. The over is 4-2 in Cincinnati's games on turf this season. The over is a perfect 4-0 in Houston's games where they are an underdog this season. Play OVER 46.5 in Cincinnati as an *8* selection Monday.

Rickenbach NFL *8* OVER 43.5 in Seattle vs Arizona @ 8:30 ET - The Seahawks are known for their solid defense but they will have their hands full with this high powered Arizona offense Sunday night. The Cardinals are coming off of their bye week but rolled up 34 points on the road in their final game before their bye. That marked the 3rd time in 4 road games this season that the Cardinals have scored at least 34 points on the road. Arizona has averaged 34 points per game on the road this season. Granted, facing the tough defense of the Seahawks in Seattle will be a tough test for Arizona but the Cardinals know they aren't going to win this game by sitting back on their heels. The Cards are going to come in strong and look to stretch the Hawks defense immediately with their high-flying aerial attack. The Seahawks are off of back to back strong defense efforts but they faced the 49'ers when Kaepernick was in a huge funk and they faced the Cowboys with Romo on the sidelines. Prior to these two games, Seattle did allow 27 points or more in 4 of their first 6 games this season. The point is that the Seahawks have already shown they have some "chinks in the armor" of this defense. Seattle has averaged 21 points per game at home this season and the Seahawks have been consistent on offense even if unspectacular. The point is that there is no reason to believe that each of this teams shouldn't get into the 20's in this game and that gets us the over in this match-up. The total has dropped down from it's opener as many feel it is high based on Seattle's defensive prowess.The Cardinals have the offensive weapons capable of causing this D some problems. The Hawks are 14-8 to the over when they enter a game on a winning streak of 2 games or more. The Cards are 6-2 to the over in November games the past 3 seasons combined. Both teams move the ball well in this key NFC West battle. 

Rickenbach NFL *8* New England Patriots -7.5 @ New York Giants @ 4:25 ET - The Patriots have lost each of their last three meetings with the Giants and that includes twice in the Super Bowl. Now stop and think for a few seconds about how that might make Tom Brady and Bill Belichick feel. The fact is, they want this game and they want it bad. Whether they would admit or not, that is a factual statement. The last thing the Pats want is to see the Giants end their unbeaten season. That Patriots truly have 'had enough' of the Giants through the years. With that said, the only thing that prevented this from being a top play for me is the line. It's up in the 7 range and inching higher. I do expect the Pats to win by more than 7 but still would have been happy to see this line a little lower than it is. The Giants are off of a win at Tampa Bay but they were outgained in the game. New York benefited from three Buccaneers fumbles in that victory. The Giants have one of the worst defenses in the league and will simply be no match for a highly motivated Patriots team in this one. New England is on a 9-2 ATS run in non-conference games the past three seasons. This game is forecast to be a high-scoring game and the Giants simply won't be able to keep up with the Pats as the Patriots do have the vastly superior defense in this match-up. The Giants are 1-5 ATS in home games with a posted total of 49.5 points or more. The Giants also are 3-6 ATS in non-conference games.

Rickenbach NFL *10* OVER 42 in Denver vs Kansas City @ 4:25 ET - Big revenge game for the Chiefs after they blew the game late in their match-up with the Broncos in Kansas City earlier this season. However, the problem for the Chiefs is they are catching Denver at the wrong time. The Broncos are not going to be in a good mood after they suffered their first loss of the season at Indianapolis last week. The Broncos were done in by two turnovers in that game but still put up 24 points. Their offense has been rolling along much better as Manning seems to be on the same page now with coach Kubiak and Denver had produced an average of 471 yards of offense per game in their two games prior to the subpar effort at Indianapolis. The Broncos are averaging 26 points per game in their last three games and they will take advantage of a subpar Chiefs defense today. The weather is expected to be ideal in Denver this afternoon and that will allow the Broncos aerial attack to be on display with light winds and mild temperatures expected. Kansas City has fresh legs off of their bye week and they erupted for 45 points in London against Detroit before the bye. This has given the Chiefs offense a boost of confidence. Kansas City is 3-1 to the over on the road this season. Long-term, as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points, the Chiefs are 24-16 to the over. The Broncos are 9-4 to the over in their last 13 games against teams with a losing record.  

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play Oakland Raiders -2.5 vs Minnesota @ 4:05 ET - Although the rain is expected to clear out of Oakland before this game gets underway, it is expected to be very windy this afternoon by the bay. This will help Oakland. The Raiders weakness is their past defense. The good news for Oakland fans today is the Vikings weakness on offense is their passing game. Combining that with the fact that the wind is going to limit Minnesota's ability to attack the weakness the Raiders defense has and you have a good edge for Oakland here. I also love this line. The Raiders are a small favorite even though it is the Vikings that have the winning record on the season with a 6-2 mark. This certainly appears to be a trap line. Don't fall for the trap, the play here is the Raiders. While Oakland is fired up off of a tight loss, the Vikings are off of an OT win. Also, Minny has a huge divisional game on deck with Green Bay. With that said, there are huge situational edges here for Oakland. The Raiders are 8-4 ATS in the month of November the last three seasons combined. Oakland has the much stronger offense in this match-up and I don't think Minnesota is going to be keep up in this match-up with the wind factor and situational factors favoring the Raiders in this one. Oakland has produced 35 points per game and 434 yards per game in their three games since the bye and they only lost last weekend's game because of turnovers, particularly three fumbles. Look for Oakland to bounce back big here.

Rickenbach NFL *8* OVER 49 in Green Bay vs Detroit @ 1 ET - Even though Green Bay's stayed under the total in 2 of their last 3 games their pass defense has been ripped all 3 weeks. The Packers have allowed 1,125 yards through the air in their last 3 games. That equates to an average of 375 passing yards per game and the Lions strength on offense is in their aerial attack. The Lions are coming off of their bye week but their defense is among the league's worst. So Detroit is more than willing to turn this game into a wide-open affair with plenty of shots down the field on offense. That's their only hope in this game because they're not going to stop the potent offense of the Packers. Green Bay is angry as they are off of back to back losses since their bye week. Aaron Rodgers and Company will certainly do plenty of damage on offense but their defense is simply a sieve lately and the Lions will be within one or two touchdowns of Green Bay throughout this game most likely. Should be an easy over with no precipitation and light winds expected in Green Bay for this one allowing both offenses to really open things up through the air and neither defense is capable of many stops in this one.

Rickenbach NFL *8* Buffalo Bills +2.5 @ New York Jets @ 8:25 ET - Bills head coach Rex Ryan goes against his former team. Also, the Bills defense goes against their former teammate, Jets QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. Additionally, this game is big in terms of the wild card picture in the AFC as we're now past the halfway point of the season. I like the fact that the Bills are much healthier now and they certainly pack an explosive punch on offense when healthy. Buffalo has one of the top rushing offenses in the league and, with QB Tyrod Taylor growing in experience as the season has gone on, the dynamic rushing attack is opening things up for him to take some shots downfield. The Bills have scored at least 27 points in 5 of their 8 games this season. Buffalo has averaged 28 points per game in their last 3 games. The Jets have also put up some decent point totals in recent weeks but their offense truly does not have the same explosiveness that this Bills offensive unit has when healthy. That said, Buffalo is healthier than they've been in a long time. The Bills are on a 10-5 ATS run in divisional games. Buffalo also is 3-1 ATS as an underdog this season and all 3 wins have been outright victories. As a home favorite of 3 points or less the Jets are on a long-term 16-24 ATS run. The Jets are 2-6 ATS in November games the last three seasons combined. In games with a line in a range between a 3 point dog and a 3 point fave...the Jets have gone 6-10 ATS the last 3 seasons combined. Don't fall for the trap here with the ability to take a small home fave...the small road dog is the way to go. Play Buffalo +2.5 as an *8* selection Thursday.

Rickenbach NFL *8* San Diego Chargers -4 vs Chicago @ 8:30 ET - San Diego was 2-2 earlier this season and heading into a Monday Night Football match-up with the Pittsburgh Steelers sans Ben Roethlisberger. The Chargers failed to take advantage in that situation as they blew the late lead and lost the game outright to the Steelers with a back-up QB. That loss on MNF is helping to ensure that San Diego does not make the same mistake again here. This is a home game. It's MNF. It is again forcing a team to come out west. It is a nice situation for San Diego and I expect them to take full advantage. The Chargers defense has let them down recently but the Bears offense is not exactly among the most potent in the league. That said, I don't think Chicago will be able to keep up with Phillip Rivers and Company in this one. The Chargers offense (particularly through the air) has been among the most dangerous attacks in the league. San Diego has the top ranked passing offense in the league while the Bears overall offensive production ranks them among the league's worst. The Bears are on a 10-19 ATS run as an underdog. Also, Chicago is 3-10 ATS in games where the posted total is 49.5 or higher proving how, as noted above, they struggle to keep up when matched up with a high powered offense. The Chargers are the exact opposite as they are 7-3 ATS the last 3 years and 22-10 ATS long-term in game with a posted total of 49.5 or more. San Diego has gone 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against NFC foes. Both teams are hungry for a win but the situation and the edges favor the Chargers here. Play San Diego minus the points as an *8* selection Monday.

Rickenbach NFL *8* Philadelphia Eagles -3 @ Dallas @ 8:30 ET - Huge revenge game for the Eagles since they were embarrassed on their home field at the hands of the Cowboys early this season. The Eagles offense was a mess back then. But now the Eagles come into this game off of a bye week and their offense has performed much better in recent games. As for the Cowboys, they are still without Tony Romo and they still have not won a single game since, coincidentally, that win over the Eagles early this season. Philadelphia has averaged 434 yards of offense per game in their last 3 games. Dallas has been held to 347 yards or less of offense in 4 of their last 5 games. This includes the Cowboys being held to 264 yards or less of offense in 2 of their last 3 games. This is simply a classic case of two teams heading in opposite directions and the Eagles have the added advantage of coming off of a bye week. Philadelphia is 18-10 ATS and 23-5 straight-up when coming off of a bye week. The line here is only a -3 and I see great value with the low number and the rested Eagles very likely to get this road win. Series note: the road team has won each of the last five meetings between these teams. The Eagles are hungry for revenge here and I look for a huge game from DeMarco Murray who is now much more involved in the offense than he was earlier this season. Play Philadelphia -3 as an *8* selection Sunday. 

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play OVER 45 in Indianapolis vs Denver @ 4:25 ET - The Broncos defense was the story line after they completely shut down the Packers two weeks ago. However, what was overlooked a bit is that the Broncos offense looked very sharp and, finally, Peyton Manning seems to be firing on all cylinders now with Coach Kubiak. The Broncos are off of their bye week and they've piled up an average of 471 yards of offense per game in their last two games. Of course this game has special meaning for Manning after all of his years in Indianapolis. I look for another huge game from Manning and Company. However, I look for Andrew Luck and Company to be matching the Broncos score for score in this one. The Colts are averaging 283 passing yards per game in their last 4 home games. The Colts are averaging 25 points per game in their last 6 games since that ugly start to the season when their offense was not clicking. So you take Indy averaging 25 a game and you've got Denver as a 5 point favorite meaning they should hit 30. Last time I checked 30-25 totals 55 points rather than 45. All kidding aside, the point is that this total is too low in my opinion and I expect a back and forth 'score-fest' in this one. The Colts are 8-2 to the over as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points the last 3 seasons. The Broncos are 8-3 to the over in games on turf. Look for both teams to take advantage of speed on turf on this one. Even with Hilton unlikely to play for the Colts, the Broncos defense will have their hands full here. Play OVER 45 in Indianapolis as a *10* Top Play.

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons -7 @ San Francisco @ 4:05 ET - The 49'ers are simply a complete mess right now. They now have inner turmoil going on with the 'benching' of Colin Kaepernick in favor of Blaine Gabbert. Additionally, their run defense is now failing them and their pass defense was already a mess. The 49'ers have lost 6 of their last 7 games and 5 of those 6 losses have come by a margin of at least 14 points. That's why laying the 7 here with Atlanta on the road is really not that nerve-wracking. Consider also that the Falcons head coach, Dan Quinn, was the defensive coordinator at Niners division rival Seahawks. He knows all about shutting down this pedestrian San Francisco offense and, with Gabbert thrown into the fire, it just got that much easier. Adding to the strength of this play is the fact that the Falcons are off of a loss. They lost a tight one to the Buccaneers last week and that means we are certain to see an intense effort from Atlanta in this one. The Falcons won the yardage battle by 200+ yards last week and by over 100 yards the week before as well. Yet both games were tight. That is helping to give line value here because this game should absolutely turn into a road rout. The Falcons have bye on deck so they will go all out for the full sixty minutes in this one and they are on a 7-3 (70%) ATS run in games the week before their bye. Play Atlanta -7 as a *10* Top Play Sunday.

Rickenbach NFL *8* Washington Redskins +14 @ New England @ 1 ET - The Patriots, undefeated on the season, have become so popular with bettors that their lines are simply getting 'out of hand' now. The Pats are laying two TDs here against a Redskins team that is off of their bye week and fully capable of playing solid defense here to keep them in this game. Helped by the fact that they also have rested legs for this match-up, the Redskins pass defense does rank them in the top third of the league so far this season. A couple of rough efforts on defense heading into the bye week will have the Redskins fully focused on a bounce back performance here and their offense also should enjoy success in going toe to toe with the Pats. Washington got their aerial attack going before the bye week as the Skins threw for 305 yards against the Bucs and have now thrown for 290 yards or more in 3 of their last 5 games. The Patriots have allowed an average of 276 passing yards per game in their last 3 games. The blowout win that New England had over Miami last week is helping to add line value here. Keep in mind the Pats prior two victories each game by just a touchdown and I look for this one to be at least as tight as those games were. Play Washington +14 as an *8* selection Sunday.

Rickenbach NFL *8* Cleveland Browns +11.5 @ Cincinnati @ 8:25 ET - Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton has a knack for having some tough performances under the lights and I look for the Browns to be a "tough out" for the Bengals in this one. Cleveland will have Johnny Manziel at QB for this one. Though he's seen limited action this season, he has been more productive and less turnover prone when he's been engineering the Browns offense. Cleveland does have some issues with injuries in the secondary but they still have some talent back there in including guys who read the QB well and can take advantage of errant throws which, again, Dalton has had a knack for in primetime games. The road team won each game last season and the Browns have revenge on their minds after getting embarrassed 30-0 the last time these teams met, in December in Cleveland. While the Bengals certainly look extremely impressive with their 7-0 SU record and undefeated ATS mark on the season, this is a tough spot for Cincy as it's a short week off of a huge road win over the Steelers. After having to rally in the fourth quarter for that win at Pittsburgh, I just don't expect the Bengals to have the focus or the energy to lay a blowout on the Browns here. Cleveland is hungry off of their poor second half versus Arizona and I look for the Browns to get a little spark with Manziel at the helm for the offense. Play Cleveland plus the big points as an *8* selection Thursday.

Rickenbach NFL *8* OVER 46.5 in Carolina vs Indianapolis @ 8:30 ET Monday - The Colts are allowing over 400 yards of offense per game and I don't see them slowing down the Panthers here. In games where Indianapolis is a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points the over is a perfect 3-0 the past three seasons and also a stellar 28-13 long-term! Overall, in all games where they are a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, the over is 7-2 the last 3 seasons and 53-31 long-term in Indianapolis games. The Panthers have allowed 133 rushing yards per game in their last 3 games and the Colts running game threat will open up the door for plenty of success with an Indy aerial attack that is averaging 258 yards per game. Each of the Colts last two road games have gone over the total. Though the Panthers are off of an under (they caught the disorganized Eagles off of a big divisional win over the Giants), Carolina had previously gone over the total in 3 straight games. The Panthers are averaging 30 points per game in their last 4 games and the Colts have averaged 31 points per game in their last two road games. The Colts offense will keep rolling on the road here but they have one of the worst defenses in the league and they continue to have trouble getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks. With Carolina's top-ranked running game opening up the aerial attack for the Panthers and with Andrew Luck's solid aerial game on the attack on the other side, this one is likely to turn into a shootout. Play OVER 46.5 in Carolina as an *8* selection Monday.

Rickenbach NFL *8* Green Bay Packers -2.5 @ Denver @ 8:30 ET - While both of these teams come into this game undefeated I feel that the Broncos have truly lived a "charmed life" up to this point. Denver's defense definitely deserves a lot of praise for their performance so far this season but the offense is still a little shaky under Kubiak in my opinion. Combination of Kubiak's influence and Manning not getting any younger! This has led to the Broncos really winning by the skin of their teeth on a few occasions already this year. Unlike Denver's performances, Green Bay has mostly steam-rolled teams and the extra time of the bye week will certainly help them to adjust after giving up all that passing yardage to the Chargers when Phillip Rivers 'went off' on them before the bye week. To many it may seem surprising that the Packers are favored on the road when Denver is also undefeated on the season. This is one of those classic cases where it helps to remember that odds makers don't make many mistakes. In other words, the Packers are favored on the road against a 6-0 Broncos team for a reason. The "any given Sunday" adage certainly applies each and every week in the NFL but I do feel playing the Broncos as a home dog here would be the "trap play" side of this. The Packers are the much stronger offense in this match-up and that will prove to be the difference maker here. The Broncos finally have one close call too many and this one results in their first SU loss of the season. Play Green Bay minus the short number as an *8* play Sunday evening.

Rickenbach NFL *10* OVER 43.5 in Oakland vs New York Jets @ 4:05 ET - Jets games have flown over the total in each of their last two games. The Raiders are 4-2 to the over this season. Surprisingly the Jets have come on strong by being every opportunistic. They don't put up a lot of yards but they create opportunities and they take advantage of them. That is why the Jets are averaging 28 points per game in their last 3 games. The Raiders defense has been torched for 26 points per game on the season and Oakland is off of their big upset win over San Diego last week which certainly could have the defense a little flat in this game. I look for the Raiders to keep their aerial attack going strong in this game but, on the other side of the ball, Oakland has one of the worst-ranked defenses in the league when it comes to defending the pass. With that said, I look for the Jets to move the ball well through the air and let's not forget the Jets had over 200 yards on the ground in each of their two games prior to facing the Patriots. The over went 8-1 in Raiders games in the month of November the past two seasons. Also, the over is 5-2 in Raiders home games with a posted total between 42.5 and 45 points. The Jets are off of that big divisional match-up with New England and the Jets have gone 8-3 to the over when off of a divisional game. Play OVER 43.5 in Oakland as a *10* Top Play Sunday.

Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play Cincinnati +1 @ Pittsburgh @ 1 ET - With Ben Roethlisberger coming back there has been a lot of attention on the Steelers in this match-up. I feel strongly that this is simply helping to give even more line value to the Bengals. Let's not forget that Roethlisberger is unlikely to come back and be 100% healthy and completely "in sync" in his first game back since the injury. Also, the Steelers have had trouble with pass protection so far this season. The Bengals are undefeated this season and coming off of a bye week. Cincinnati also plays this game with triple revenge because they have lost each of their last 3 meetings with Pittsburgh and this looks like the perfect spot for the rested Bengals to get their revenge and put an end to this streak. Cincinnati has the much better pass protection and, overall, the far superior offense in comparison with Pittsburgh. Roethlisberger will be challenged early and often by the Bengals defense and Cincy is ultra motivated as they seek their first win since September 2013 in this series. The Bengals have been an ATS machine this season and I expect that to continue here. Even though they are only a small dog in this match-up the motivation is large and I expect Big Ben to struggle at times in his first game back. The Bengals are on a 10-4 ATS run as an underdog. Play Cincinnati as a *10* Top Play Sunday.