Non-Conf Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #471 Sunday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts +4 @ San Francisco 49ers @ 8:20 ET - Jimmy Garoppolo back from injury for the 49ers here but how effective will he be considering the time off and the recovery from injury. At the same time, Carson Wentz is quietly putting together some impressive numbers for the Colts. The Indianapolis QB has a TD-INT ratio of 9-1. Keep in mind, prior to a rough season with a fading Eagles team last year, Wentz had compiled a TD-INT ratio of 81-21 over 3 preceding seasons. I had a strong feeling he would enjoy some success in coming to Indianapolis and working with head coach Frank Reich who was an offensive coordinator with the Eagles when they won the Super Bowl a few years and Wentz had been rock solid under Reich before he got hurt. So I am aware the Colts have a disappointing record so far this season but so too do the 49ers and I like the fact Indianapolis has now won 2 of 3 games SU and covered 4 of last 5 games ATS while the Niners are in a 0-3 SU/ATS slump. I know the 49ers are off their bye week but their final game before the break was a disappointing loss to the Cardinals in a divisional game. The 49ers only wins this season were on the road against the Eagles and Lions! I think this Colts team is better than people realize despite their record and they are starting to turn the corner. Keep in mind, Indy went 11-5 last season while San Francisco went 6-10 last year. Give me the points here as the Colts continue to turn this season around and we can fade a Niners team that is favored by more than a FG here and yet lacking in confidence. There is simply something amiss in San Francisco right now and we'll take advantage here. 10* INDIANAPOLIS +4

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 48.5 in Las Vegas Raiders vs Philadelphia Eagles @ 4:05 ET - The Eagles are off a dismal effort on offense last week but faced Tampa Bay. Now they catch the Raiders off their emotional big win in first game after the change at head coach because of the Jon Gruden situation. Also, Las Vegas certainly not known for defense even though they have been a little better on that side of the ball this season. That said, I am looking for a lot of points in this one. The Eagles have allowed 32 points per game last 4 games and are a 3 point dog here. So if they allow 32 but stay within the number you are talking about a game that lands around 60. Philly will make up for their poor effort on offense last week and I also expect Las Vegas to be much better on offense than they were 2 weeks ago versus Chicago when the team was a mess as the Gruden situation was brewing at that time. The game was at home just like this one is and this is the Raiders first chance to make up for that one in front of their home fans. Note that they had scored an average of 32 points in their first two home games this season. More of the same here. 10* over 48.5 in Las Vegas

Earliest Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Baltimore Ravens -6 vs Cincinnati Bengals @ 1 ET - I know the Bengals have a surprisingly impressive record but a lot of their wins against weak foes. Give Cincinnati credit of course as they have still gotten the job done but the result is just that they are a little bit over-rated right now. The Ravens have beaten some stronger teams during their current run of 5 straight wins. Also, Baltimore's last 3 meetings with the Bengals have all ended up Ravens wins by a margin of 24 points or more. We only need to win this by 7 or more to cash our ticket and I like the odds being in our favor for that to happen here. The Ravens have the much better offense and are at home and Cincinnati will simply be unable to keep up in this one. 8* BALTIMORE -6

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Monday 10* Top Play Cleveland Browns Money Line -120 vs Denver Broncos @ 8:20 ET - Baker Mayfield is out but Case Keenum has experience working with head coach Kevin Stefanski as they are were together in Minnesota in 2017. That year was Keenum's best in the NFL and he might surprise many by coming up big in this Thursday night start. With the line at -2 in most places but the money line available as low as -120 in some spots, I am recommending grabbing the money line here. Look for the Browns to bounce back at home off an ugly home loss to the last remaining undefeated team in the league. By the way, the Broncos have lost 3 straight games as their early season 3-0 start proving to be a fluke. Denver's 3 wins are against teams that are a combined 3-14 on the season! Two of the Browns wins are against teams that are .500 on the season and their loss to a Chargers team that is now 4-2 on the season was a very tight defeat. The Broncos 3 defeats, on the other hand, have come by an average margin of 11.3 points. I am grabbing the home team that is available at a bargain price because of Mayfield being out for this game. 10* CLEVELAND money line -120 

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Monday 10* Top Play Tennessee Titans +6  vs Buffalo Bills @ 8:15 ET - The Bills are a great team. They also have revenge on their minds here and a bye week on deck. However, lets not forget that Buffalo is off a huge playoff revenge win over Kansas City last week. Also, lets not forget that the Titans are a quality team and at home and catching as many 6.5 points here after opening as a 3.5 point dog. Buffalo is simply over-priced here especially when you consider that Tennessee is getting healthier. The Titans should have WR Julio Jones back for this game and could have WR AJ Brown back as well. Tennessee has a strong ground game and has won 3 of 4 games since an embarrassing opening week loss to a Cardinals team that remains undefeated on the season. The Titans lone loss since then was by 3 points in overtime. I see them hanging tough in this game throughout. I have a ton of respect for the Bills but the value is with the underdog here especially a home dog like this in a primetime game. As a home dog in a non-divisional match-up, the Titans have covered 6 of 8. Buffalo has been on an ATS tear dating back to last season too so they are becoming over-valued by the betting markets. Wish we could get the full +7 here but we are not quite there yet and, even so, great value with this current number at +6 as the revenge factor is being overplayed on this one. 10* TENNESSEE +6

Sunday Night Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #273 Sunday 10* Top Play Seattle Seahawks +5.5 @ Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:20 ET - Russell Wilson is out for awhile after the injury suffered to the middle finger of his throwing hand. That said, the Seahawks have decided they have no chance to win this game and have decided to forfeit the contest and may not even show up at Heinz Field tonight. I am being facetious of course about Seattle not showing up but I do find humor in the fact that no one is giving the Seahawks a chance in this game. The line has gone all the way up to as high as a 5.5 as of early morning Sunday and, keep in mind, teammates step up particularly strong in the first game after a star goes down. Wilson, of course, is a franchise player for the Seahawks and everyone - on offense as well as defense - is going to step up their game in his absence on Sunday night. Pittsburgh is off a win against an over-rated Denver team whose only 3 wins this season are against teams that are now a combined 2-13 on the season. Prior to that win the Steelers had lost 3 straight games and the only other win for Pittsburgh this season was in the season opener when they upset the Bills but were outstatted at Buffalo. Seattle has been underachieving on defense and will be fired up after the loss to the Rams. Prior to the defeat the Seahawks were only 2-2 SU but one of the losses was in OT by just 3 points. Look for a big bounce back here. In non-conference games the Seahawks have covered 6 of 9 and I am expecting a very big effort from them here as they battle hard to make up for the absence of Wilson. 10* SEATTLE +5.5

Non-Conf Total of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #267 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 48 in Cleveland Browns vs Arizona Cardinals @ 4:05 ET - Due to some injury issues and weather concerns (wind) this total has dropped from the mid-50s to the upper 40s! After the drop of nearly a full TD, I feel we have excellent line value here as you know these two former OU quarterbacks (both were Sooners) are going to do everything they can to outduel each other here. The Cardinals are 5-0 on the season and off a shutout win but faced a 49ers team with a mess at the QB spot last week. Now they face Baker Mayfield coming off a huge game and plus the strength of the Browns offense is their ground game and the Cardinals struggle to stop the run. On the flip side, the Cleveland defense was abysmal last week and now face Kyler Murray and he has completed more than 70% of his passes in 4 straight games! The wind is expected to subside some as this game goes on and to average in the 17 mph range which is not too excessive. If this was a 1 ET game the wind would have been more of a concern but looks like it will not be hugely impactful on this game starting at 4 ET Sunday. These two teams rank as two of the best offenses in the league and with the Murray vs Mayfield friendly rivalry added to the mix I am expecting a shootout here! The Cards scored only 17 points last week but averaged 35 points the first 4 weeks! The Browns had one low-scoring win at Minnesota but have scored an average of 32 points in their other 4 games! 10* OVER 48 in Cleveland

8* Baltimore Ravens Money Line -140 vs Los Angeles Chargers @ 1 ET - We have a choice of here of laying a little extra juice on the -2.5 or, instead, just add a little more price to that and turn a 1 and 2 point non-covering victory into a win at the betting counter. That said, I am going to take the latter of the two choices and lay a -140 price on the money line here. Look for the Ravens to get the job done at home. They are the much better defensive team when it comes to defending the run. I also look for Baltimore to step up big here at home on defense after a bad effort versus the Colts on Monday night. The Ravens do have a very potent ground attack on offense and Los Angeles is the worst team in the NFL at defending the run. That said, this could be a key in how this game plays out. I look for Baltimore to pull away as the game goes on as their ground game wears down the Chargers defense. LA is playing right into the teeth of revenge here too as the Ravens lost at home to them in the 2018 playoffs. Yes that is a few seasons ago but this is the Chargers first visit since and teams do not forget home playoff losses! Los Angeles off to a great start this season but I feel they are a bit over-rated and have more confidence in the Ravens defense stepping up at home than the Chargers doing so on the road. Both offenses very potent for sure. 8* BALTIMORE -140

8* OVER 47 in Jacksonville vs Miami @ 9:30 AM ET (game played in London) - I know it may seem hard to be excited about these two offenses but the defenses have been so bad I am looking for plenty of points in this one. These are two of the worst defenses in the league and you have a match-up of two teams that are a combined 1-9 on the season! That means both teams will have the playbooks fully opened up and willing to take risks as, after all, what do they have to lose? Exactly! Nothing to lose here! Both offenses will be in attack mode and look to attack the weakness of each team which is certainly the shortcomings on defense! That said, the Jaguars ground game has been solid and they can use that to open up things through the air. Jacksonville allowing average of 30.4 points per game this season and Miami allowing average of 34.5 points last 4 games. 8* OVER 47 in Jacksonville

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #110 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles +7 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:20 ET - The Eagles will be flying sky high in terms of emotions as they get a home game against the defending champion Buccaneers. Also, their defense rates higher than the Bucs in terms of overall stats as well as pressuring the QB. Philadelphia will generate some pressure against Tom Brady in this one and Tampa Bay's offense has not been as good on the road this season as they have been at home. Look for the Eagles to build off the momentum of last week's come from behind win at Carolina. That may not lead to an outright upset win but Philly should at least get the cover. TB is 0-2 ATS on the road this season and the Eagles will take advantage of what is their only home game in a 4-week span. An outright upset would not be a total surprise but definitely there is value with the points in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA +7

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #479 Monday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts (+) @ Baltimore Ravens @ 8:15 ET - The Ravens are a high-quality team for sure but the Colts are better than their record and I feel we have excellent line value here. Keep in mind Baltimore faced KC, LV, Detroit and Denver. The Ravens beat the Chiefs but KC is now 2-3 on the season and their defense has been poor. Baltimore lost to the Raiders in OT and Las Vegas also now off B2B losses and starting to disappoint. The Broncos are also 3-2 and padded their record with 3 wins against bad teams to start the season. As for the Lions, though they fight hard they are still 0-5 SU on the season. The points is that I am certainly not convinced that the Ravens should be a 7.5 point favorite over this solid Colts team. Baltimore has 2 wins that came by a total margin of just 3 points. They could easily be 1-3 on the season! As for the Colts they have faced Rams and Titans teams that are a combined 7-3 on the season. Indianapolis off a win at Miami last week and statistically have the better defense in comparison with the Ravens. That said, I look for the Colts to have a great shot at the outright upset here and, if they do fall short, I certainly expect it to be by just a 1-score margin. 10* INDIANAPOLIS +7.5

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Buffalo Bills +3 @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:20 ET - This is a double revenge spot for the Bills as they lost at home to KC in the regular season last year and then got knocked out of the playoffs here in Kansas City in January. I know the Chiefs are still a very solid football team, particularly on offense. But, I do not like what I have seen from the KC defense this season. Additionally, the Bills defense is very strong and I feel we have a solid edge in that regard here in addition to a huge motivational edge for Buffalo in this one. Kansas City is allowing more than double the yardage that the Bills defense is this season! I know KC has faced the tougher schedule this season but still this Chiefs team just not seem as dominant as what we have seen from them in recent seasons. Buffalo is rolling right now off 3 straight dominating wins and I know they faced weaker foes but they could easily be 4-0 this season as they outstatted the Steelers significantly in week one. The Bills are allowing 11 points per game this season while the Chiefs are allowing 31 points per game. You also know that the visitors have had this game circled on their calendar ever since the schedule came out. I do not expect them to be denied here but will grab the 3 points in case they do fall just short of the outright win. 8* BUFFALO +3

NFC East Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play New York Giants +7 @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - The Cowboys are 4-0 ATS this season and, as a result, are over-rated right now. The Giants are known for playing them very tough and this is a real tough spot for Dallas to cover in my opinion. New York is only 1-3 this season SU but get at least a little confidence back as they are coming off a win plus their two games prior to that were each losses but only by a combined 4 points. If you look at the stats of these two teams they are not very different but the betting masses are not seeing that. What the betting masses are seeing is a Dallas team that is 4-0 both SU and ATS on the season and also a Giants team that was 0-3 SU prior to notching their first win of the season last week. What generally happens in NFL betting in cases like this is that facing the market perception is your best bet and that is absolutely what I am going to do here. I am grabbing the generous points being offered here for my top side play of the day. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS +7

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Pittsburgh Steelers +2 vs Denver Broncos @ 1 ET - I successfully faded an over-rated Denver team last week with the Ravens and am hoping for the same result here with the Steelers. Yes the Broncos are 3-1 SU / ATS on the season while Pittsburgh has underachieved and is 1-3 SU / ATS but I feel this is helping to give us line value here. Denver's wins were all against weaker foes and then they struggled at home against a solid Baltimore ream. The Steelers have had issues this season no doubt but they are still a tough team to face and this is particularly true at home and the Broncos have a huge divisional game on deck with Las Vegas. Look for Denver to be a bit beat up after going to war with a physical Ravens team last week and the hungry home team takes care of business here. 8* PITTSBURGH +2

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 45 in Atlanta Falcons vs New York Jets @ 9:30 AM ET in London - Early start here with game played in London. Jets coming off first win so they have some momentum. That gives the New York offense some confidence. As for the Jets defense they have allowed 24 points or more 3 straight weeks! The Falcons have allowed an average of 32 points the last 3 games! Atlanta's offense has averaged 24 points last 3 weeks. With a low total posted on this game I feel strongly that we have a lot of value here. I know the numbers on offense are not that impressive for these teams but watch what they do in this game against sub-par defenses and in a special setting like this over in London. 10* OVER 45 in Atlanta (game played in London)

Thursday Total - Rickenbach NFL Thursday 10* Top Play UNDER 54.5 in Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams @ 8:20 ET - I know the Seahawks defensive numbers have not impressed but they have played 3 of their 4 games on the road. Generally speaking Seattle tends to play better defense at home. That was not the case in their lone home game when this season when they lost to the Titans 33 to 30. That said, I expect them to make up for that poor game with a much better effort here on defense. The Rams are off an ugly loss to Arizona. The over is an uncharacteristic 4-0 in LA games this season. I don't see that continuing in this big rivalry game but we get a big total to work with here of 54.5 which is very significant. Consider that none of the last 4 meetings have topped 50 points and they have averaged 42 points. We have good cushion to work with on this total in my opinion and I expect both defenses to step up big here in this one. 10* UNDER 54.5 in Seattle

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Monday 10* Top Play Las Vegas Raiders (+) @ Los Angeles Chargers @ 8:15 ET - The Raiders much-maligned defense was really bad last season but they are a little better this season. Statistically, based on yardage allowed, they are right about even with the Chargers. That said, I like the fact that Las Vegas does have the more potent offense and, sitting undefeated on the season, they are playing with a ton of confidence right now. I am not sold on this Chargers team. They are off to a good start this season as well but they faced two NFC East teams to start the season and then faced a Chiefs team that handed them the game on turnovers. Give Los Angeles some credit for sure but I am just saying they might be slightly over-rated at this early juncture in the season. The Raiders faced a strong Baltimore team, impressed with a road win in eastern time zone, and then suffered no letdown last week when they defeated Miami. Getting the 3 points is a strong value here as the Raiders potent offense insures their ability to stay in this game all the way through and I sense a road upset. Note that the road team has won each of the last 3 meetings between these teams. I don't see that changing here but will grab the points as added insurance. I know Chargers QB Justin Herbert is not on the injury report for this game but he did have his throwing hand iced and bandaged after the game at Kansas City last week. Perhaps a little bit of an issue for him in this game and, either way, I like the road dog that has shown a knack for finding a way in tight games this season. Give me the points. 10* LAS VEGAS +3

Sunday Night Total of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New England Patriots vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:20 ET - The Patriots should have scored a lot more than 13 points last week but QB Mac Jones was done in by turnovers. He still threw for a ton of yardage though and the Pats did score 25 points in a win the week before. Also, Jones is taking on a Buccaneers defense that has been susceptible through the air this season. The Bucs ground defense has been solid plus New England likely to be playing catch up here so I expect them to be forced to throw the ball a lot. I know a lot is being made of Tom Brady's return to Foxboro and I get that 100% but the fact is this Bucs passing attack is a machine right now and I am expecting them to move the ball very well all night long against a Pats defense that has not faced a quarterback anywhere close to the level of Brady this season. Granted Brady is in a class of his own but my point is none of the teams the Patriots have faced this season had even what one could refer to as a strong QB presence. Now they face one of the NFL's greatest of all time at that position and TB is off a loss and threw like crazy against a solid Rams defense. That said I am looking for a ton of passing from the Bucs here and the Pats will be forced to throw as well for the two reasons I noted above. I am aware of rain expected in the area tonight but the heavier stuff is expected in the overnight hours and also the winds are expected to be light. So really this shapes up well for both offenses to excel and I look for a shootout here. 10* OVER 49.5 in New England

AFC Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens PICK'EM @ Denver Broncos @ 4:25 ET - I know the Chiefs are just 1-2 this season but Kansas City is still a very good football team. What does that have to do with this play? Kansas City is one of the teams the Ravens beat and the Chiefs were in the Super Bowl (again!) last season! As for Baltimore's lone loss it came in OT and in a very tough setting at Las Vegas in Week 1 when the Raiders finally were able to have a stadium full of fans and it showed. Also, LV is now 3-0 on the season. Speaking of 3-0 records, so too are the Broncos. However, let me know when they play somebody meaningful! Actually, that is happening this week and that is the point! The Broncos are highly over-rated right now in my opinion because they are undefeated this season but they have played 3 teams that are now a combined 0-10 on the season! Denver has faced the Jaguars, Giants, and Jets! Now the Broncos finally face a tough football team and I do not expect this to go well at all for them. The fact the Ravens are on the road for this one is even better for us because the line is a pick'em as a result. If the game was in Baltimore that means we would likely be laying 6 or 7 points in this one which I would still recommend but I much prefer this situation. The Ravens are riding the positive emotion of a dramatic last-second win last week and they come to Denver and take care of business in this one. The Broncos finally face a real challenge and that changes everything. 10* BALTIMORE PICK'EM

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Kansas City Chiefs (-) @ Philadelphia Eagles @ 1 ET - The Chiefs are offering a lot of line value here because they are on a long ATS slump. I know that might make it enticing to play on the streak here but this Eagles team is starting to show its true colors. They won in Week 1 but that was against a bad Falcons team. Philly then lost at home to the Niners and then got blasted at Dallas on Monday Night. This is a short week of prep for the Eagles and they face former head coach Andy Reid and the Chiefs are angry off back to back losses. They suffered a late game loss at Baltimore and then lost to Chargers because of a 4-0 turnover deficit. Kansas City is much better than they have shown of course. The Chiefs have faced 3 teams that are all 2-1 on the season and playing quite well early on. That said I feel we have good value in going against an Eagles team that fell apart last season and is going to take some time to rebuild. The Chiefs are annual super bowl contenders while the Eagles are now in rebuild mode. We are only having to lay less than a TD here because of the bad ATS streak for KC and, that being said, this looks like the perfect spot to pound them. 8* KANSAS CITY -6.5

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 @ Cincinnati Bengals @ 8:20 ET - The Bengals are 2-1 on the season plus at home and they are facing a winless Jacksonville team. This should be easy, right? Absolute blowout for the home team, right? No not at all! In fact I would not be surprised to see this one result in an outright upset for the underdog but I am grabbing the generous points being offered. The Jaguars are 0-3 but there are only five 3-0 teams in the league at this point in the season and Jacksonville faced two of them. Conversely, the Bengals have faced three teams that all have losing records now at this point in the season. Also, Cincinnati's win over the Vikings in Week 1 was a fortunate one and it took OT to get it. Also, the Bengals win last week at Pittsburgh was driven by turnovers. The Steelers actually outgained Cincinnati in that game. As you can see, big value with the underdog in this one and it is a big of a hidden value which is what makes it even better as I expect the line to stay in the 7.5 or 8 range and, keep in mind, this line had opened up at a 6.5 which was for a reason as I like to say! 10* JACKSONVILLE +7.5

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:15 ET - Value with the points here. First divisional game for each of these teams and it is an early-season battle for first place in the NFC Least as I like to call it! Both of these teams have looked a little better than expected early this season but like the fact that, though both teams went 1-5 ATS in divisional games last season, the Cowboys are laying 3 plus the hook here and they went an ugly 1-6 ATS as a favorite last season. Philadelphia has been the better team defensively early this season and I also like the fact that they have been running the ball well early this season. When you have a road team that can establish the ground game on offense plus play very strong on the other side of the ball, you have a good shot at a road dog cover if not upset win. Also note that Dallas is 2-0 ATS this season but look around the league after yesterday's results and you can see how rare it is for teams to be perfect 3-0 ATS after 3 weeks. In other words the odds a bit stacked against the Cowboys here and I do like the fact that the road teams are a perfect 2-0 ATS this season in both Eagles games and Dallas games. Those trends continue here and the road dog relies on solid defensive play as well as a strong ground game on offense to grind out the win (at least ATS win) in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA +3.5

Primetime Punisher - NFL Sunday 10* Top Play San Francisco 49ers (-) vs Green Bay Packers @ 8:20 ET - The 49ers burned their backers when they let the Lions get a miracle backdoor cover in Week 1. Green Bay then burned Lions backers last week with a big 2nd half to get the money. Still the Packers were outgained by Detroit in that game and also looked very ugly in their season-opening 38 to 3 loss to the Saints. The point is that I still do not think things are as they should be in Green Bay just yet and we are getting a lot of line value here as a result. The Niners got embarrassed by the Packers when these teams met last season but this is much more than a revenge spot for San Francisco. It is also their home opener and they get Green Bay on a short week as they are coming off a Monday night win versus Detroit. If you look at the Packers statistically it is quite ugly. As for the Niners stats a lot of the yardage allowed to the Lions was in garbage time of what was otherwise a blowout win. Then last week SF battled hard for a win over a resilient Eagles team that is playing solid defense early this season. I feel we have excellent line value with the home team now dropping to a -3 here after being as high as a -4 in early trading action earlier this week. Keep in mind the public still remembers the 6-10 SF team of last season and the 4-12 team that preceded the 49ers big season in 2019. As for the public's viewpoint on the Packers all they can remember is the 13-3 records of the past two seasons but that Aaron Rodgers holdout situation has effected the team chemistry of this team and last week's win was not reflective of how the game should have played out - just look at the stats - and again this was the same Lions team that the Niners really destroyed in week one before letting them in for a miracle backdoor cover. Tremendous line value here. 10* SAN FRANCISCO

Total of the Month - NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 43.5 in Las Vegas Raiders vs Miami Dolphins @ 4:05 ET - I know Brissett did not look good in relief of the injured Tagovailoa last week but he is a veteran QB fully capable of a bounce back here. Also, he goes from facing one of the best defenses in the league to facing one of the worst. Miami's numbers are poor on offense this season but they faced the Bills and Patriots and those two defenses have been very solid early this season. The Raiders, on the other hand, have a very questionable secondary but I do love their offense and expect plenty of success in this one for the Las Vegas offense at home. The key to the over is we have seen this total drop from the upper 40s to the low 40s and we have great value as a result. Las Vegas, at 2-0 and with a divisional game at the Chargers on deck, could make the mistake defensively of being a bit flat in this one. After all, they hung on for a dramatic OT win in week 1 over the Ravens and then went on the road and beat the Steelers. The set up is now ideal for the Dolphins to surprise and have a very good game on offense. However, I do not trust their defense against a Raiders offense that is very dangerous. As a result, plenty of points in this one and we have a great value with a low total that has been driven even lower in trading. 10* OVER 43.5 in Las Vegas

NFL Sunday 8* Chicago Bears +7.5 @ Cleveland Browns @ 1 ET - Bears 24, Rams 18. Final score? No those were the first downs in a very deceiving 34-14 loss at the hands of LA in week 1. This Chicago defense is underrated right now and they will be up for the challenge at Cleveland. The Browns offense has looked great early this season but they faced a Chiefs team that has not looked good at all on defense yet this season plus a Texans team that looks like a complete mess and is just fortunate they played Jacksonville in week 1 so they at least have 1 victory early this season. Houston has been horrible in their other two games. I think the Bengals are better than people realize and that is why they are only a 3-point dog at Pittsburgh this week. The point is that Chicago just beat the Bengals and that was with a horrible performance on offense. Now Fields is the starter after QB Dalton got hurt last week. That said, he'll be better after a full week of practice with the offense and after getting his feet wet in game action last week. Browns might win this game but I don't see them winning by more than 1 score and like having 7 plus the hook in this one! Like having the better defense in this one and expect complete effort as Bears make up for the 20-point thrashing at Los Angeles which everyone remembers but was a deceiving final! 8* CHICAGO +7.5

NFL Sunday 8* Cincinnati Bengals +3 @ Pittsburgh Steelers @ 1 ET - Long-time followers know I am a contrarian and this has been particularly beneficial to my long-term success in the NFL. This line is saying that the Bengals are equal to the Steelers because Pittsburgh is favored by just 3 on their home field. So think about that for a minute and think about how the public is going to view this game. Of course the public is going to be all over the Steelers which means, of course, you should be on on the Bengals. When something looks too good to be true it usually is and this is particularly true in the NFL. Nothing is 100 percent of course but I love the odds in cases like this as usually the public loses. Think about it again. This line is saying these two teams would be equal on a neutral field. The Bengals are 6-25-1 the last two seasons. The Steelers are 29-18-1 the last three seasons. Statistically the Bengals have been the much better defense. Pittsburgh was lucky (look at the stats!) when they won at Buffalo in week one. That showed up last week when, at home and catching the Raiders in a letdown spot, the Steelers watched Vegas trounce them on their own field. This game priced this way with good reason. Grab the points. 8* CINCINNATI +3

NFL Sunday 8* Kansas City Chiefs -7 vs Los Angeles Chargers @ 1 ET - I do not like to lay many points in NFL games so when I am willing to lay 7 the situation has to be very strong and that is the case here! The Chargers are 1-1 to start the season and they played two teams from the division I refer to as the NFC Least! Facing Dallas and Washington is a lot different from facing a Chiefs team that is annually a Super Bowl threat and that, for this one, is at home and coming off a loss. I look for this game to be blowout city. I know KC is 0-2 ATS and failed to cover their home opener but their defense is normally much better when at home and I look for them to bounce back here. As for the offense, the Chiefs are averaging 34 points a game and will roll to a blowout win here over a team that is a bit over-rated early this season in my opinion. 8* KANSAS CITY -7

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Houston Texans +8 vs Carolina Panthers @ 8:20 ET - This is a typical contrarian play for me. Everyone will be high on the Panthers because they demolished the Saints last week. Everyone will be down on the Texans because they lost by double digits at Cleveland last week plus they lost their starting QB to injury. Give me Houston here! For one thing they are at home and they played very well in their first game of the season here. For another thing Carolina is on the road for the first time this season. Yes they have impressed so far this season but the Panthers faced a bad Jets team in week one and then caught the Saints off a big win over Green Bay. Lets not forget the Panthers lost 9 of last 11 games last season. Carolina also went 0-2 last season when off a win in which they allowed 13 points or less. Now here the Panthers are laying 8 points in that exact situation! Houston went only 2-4 in final 6 home games last season but 3 of the 4 losses were by 6 or less points. This means if you would have had Houston plus 8 in each of their last 7 regular season home games you would have gone 6-1 ATS. We have a lot of value here with the home dog and, keep in mind, their #2 QB played his college ball in the Pac-12. It is not as if this rookie QB, Davis Mills, has not faced some tough competition in his career. He'll be ready for the big stage here especially after getting some playing time last week and now this week he is at home for this start. Texans make this one helluva game and should cover the spread along the way. I look for this game to be decided by a one-score margin. 10* HOUSTON +8

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Detroit Lions +12 - I know that the Packers are generally strong at home and should bounce back here. But for Green Bay to respond and win this game by double digits is what I am doubting. The Packers have some issues. I am not sure how cohesive this group is ever since the Aaron Rodgers off-season saga. This team just looks a bit disjointed. Undoubtedly, talent-wise Green Bay is the better team in this match-up. However, the Lions gained confidence and showed a lot of character in battling back against San Francisco last week. Yes it was a fortunate ATS cover for Detroit but that does not change the fact that it gave new QB Jared Goff and this Lions offense some confidence heading into this week's match-up. Keep in mind Green Bay was turnover-prone last week and just overall it was an ugly performance against the Saints. That said, consider that New Orleans then went on the road yesterday and looked very bad against the Panthers. As for the Niners they went on the road and beat an Eagles team that is playing inspired football early this season. The point is Detroit's cover against San Francisco might be more impressive than first realized and Green Bay's demolishing at the hands of New Orleans might be even worse than originally thought. I would not be surprised to see these teams trade scores a bit and for the Lions to hang around throughout this contest. Look for a game decided by a margin of about 7 points which means we have great value with the big points offered here. 10* DETROIT +12

NFL 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens +4 - The Ravens are off a disappointing OT loss at Las Vegas on Monday Night. For all intents and purposes, their season is now over. I am being sarcastic of course but I am simply pointing out public perception here as this line has risen on the Chiefs from -2.5 point favorites to being as high as -4.5 point favorites. Keep in mind Kansas City went 14-2 SU last season but only covered 6 of the 16 games. There is a lot of value here in the home dog in this one. Baltimore is off a road loss and now back home and, keep in mind, they got the cash in 10 of their 16 games last season. KC, of course, is a great team but the public is so enamored with them that it often drives their lines too high. I strongly believe that will prove to be the case again here. Last year Mahomes outplayed Jackson and the Chiefs got a dominating road win at Baltimore last September. So everyone expects this game to be the same. The KC defense did not look good at all last week and gave up substantial yardage to the Browns both through the air and on the ground. Keep in mind, when a home dog can get their ground game going they are particularly dangerous. The Chiefs defense was at home last week and still did not look good. They are generally known for being tougher at home but that was not the case last week. That spells trouble as they now take to the road to face a Ravens team that is angry off a loss plus hell-bent on revenge from last season's home loss to these Chiefs. Keep in mind, Ravens were on a 6-0 ATS run prior to losing to the Raiders last week. Look for them to get back into the SU win column here but I will gladly grab the points as added insurance here as well. 10* BALTMORE +4

10* Top Play OVER 50.5 in Tampa Bay - The Falcons got embarrassed last week by the Eagles. Their defense here stands no chance against this Bucs offensive machine. Tampa Bay looked great on offense against the Cowboys on opening night. However, the Buccaneers defense certainly had some issues against Dallas. I am well aware of the fact that Atlanta scored only 6 points last week and this week they must throw the ball much more than they did against the Eagles. Too many rushing attempts were getting them nowhere against the Philadelphia defense. Forced to play catch up again this week, look for the Falcons to be much more focused on an aerial attack against TB in this one. The Tampa Bay defense was on its heels some against Dallas and Matt Ryan is a veteran QB whom I expect to be better this week after a tough effort versus Philly. Still adjusting to life without Julio Jones but Atlanta does have some weapons. Tampa Bay threw the ball 50 times last week and only ran it 14 times. With Falcons forced to play catch up in this game (double digit dog for a reason) they will be forced to throw a lot too. That said, games with heavy passing tend to be high-scoring and I like the downward line move on this total as it was even higher before coming down a little. I look for this game to get into the upper 50s. Look for a 35 to 24 type game here at a minimum. 10* OVER 50.5 in Tampa Bay

NFL 8* Buffalo Bills -3 - The Bills lost at home to the Steelers but dominated statistically and were done in by a blocked punt returned for a Pittsburgh TD. Buffalo is much better than the scoreboard showed last week. The Dolphins are off a big divisional win at Foxboro last week but they were statistically dominated by the Patriots. In other words, these teams are off disparate results last week and that is helping to offer line value this week on the better team. Yes Buffalo is on the road but I am happy for that as this is keeping the line manageable. If this game was in upstate New York the line would be nearly double digits and I do not like to lay big points in the NFL. The Dolphins have lost 7 of last 8 versus the Bills and I expect that streak to continue here and look for the road favorites to pull away for big win as Miami gets caught still celebrating big upset win over New England last week. 8* BUFFALO -3

NFL 10* Top Play New York Giants +3.5 - Remember at the end of last season when the Eagles former head coach Doug Pederson seemingly surrendered the last game of the season when it was very important to the Giants playoff chances? That game did not directly involve New York but it did directly involve Washington and it ended up handing the NFC East title to the Football Team rather than the Giants. Soon New York will have their chance at payback over the Eagles but, first things first, the Giants get a shot at the team that took the NFC East title over them last year. I like New York's chances to get some payback here! Washington will have their #2 QB going here as Heinicke gets the start because Fitzpatrick going to be out some time now with a hip injury. He will probably miss 6 to 8 weeks and Heinicke is now the guy. Though he has shown some flashes of strong play he is still rather inexperienced at the NFL level and there is a reason coach Ron Rivera had selected Fitzpatrick as the starter of course. Look for the Giants defense to force some errors on Heinicke's part in this one. Both teams off losses last week but Washington was statistically dominated while the stats differential in the Giants game showed slimmer margins. I also like the fact that New York has won 5 straight games over Washington and look for that to reach 6 in a row here. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS +3.5

NFL 10* Top Play BALTIMORE -4 - Way back in May when the NFL schedules first came out, the Ravens were in the range of a full TD favorite. Now the line is down to a -4. I'll take it! Defense wins football games. Take a look at the results so far in Week 1 to gauge what I am telling you. The teams that allowed 16 points or less went 10-0. Only one of the wins was by less than a 4 point margin by the way. But what about teams that score real well. Surely they do perfectly well also, right? Actually you would be surprised. There were 5 teams that scored 21 points or more and still lost their games. Those 5 teams averaged 27.2 points per game. That is not a bad scoring average but, as you can see, it is still defense that wins the games. Now look at this match-up. The Ravens are known for having huge preseasons and then opening the new season with a week one win in blowout fashion and I do not see this game being any different. Baltimore was one of the best defenses in the league last season. Las Vegas was one of the worst. The Raiders made some moves in the off-season to address their poor D but it will take some time for the units to jell on that side of the ball. I love the fact that the Ravens are on the road here because we get a much more favorable line. At home they would be a double digit favorite. Instead, on the road and because the betting public is enamored with the Las Vegas team being at home and having a potent offense, we get a low line of only -4. This one should be an absolute rout as the Raiders may hang around for awhile but this Ravens team too strong on both sides of the ball and that eventually wears down Vegas as this game goes on and the road fave should pull away for a win by a double digit margin. 10* BALTIMORE -4

10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams -7.5 - The Rams had the #1 defense in the NFL last season. The Bears and Rams had similar production on offense last season in terms of points per game but the Bears ranked 26th based on yardage while Los Angeles was 11th. Also, consider this key fact, Matthew Stafford is a gamer that played for a bad Lions team for years. The new Rams QB comes from Detroit where the Lions register double digits in losses year after year. Now he comes to LA where the Rams have averaged double digits in wins the last 3 years. Stafford could truly excel now on a much better team and this Bears defense is "okay" but still a little suspect in my mind. They are definitely not on the Rams level. That being said, you have the better defense and better offense and the much better overall team. Keep in mind Chicago is now going with Andy Dalton at QB. No disrespect to him as I have always felt he is a real gamer too but his best seasons are behind him. Coming to Chicago is not going to change his fortunes like Stafford going to the Rams will do. Dalton 30 tds and 22 ints last 2 seasons and one of those with a Cowboys team that had some talent. Look at Stafford's last 2 years, both with bad Lions teams, and he piled up a ton of yardage and threw for 45 td's against just 15 int's. This line is low as 7.5 which if you give the Rams say 3.5 points for home field edge that would mean the line is -4 on a neutral field. I feel, based on all the match-up edges here, LA is much better than 4 points in comparison with the Bears. I wish we could get -7 here of course but that won't happen but I am expecting the Chicago offense to struggle badly to score and that means Rams by 2 TDs in this one in my opinion so we still have great value here. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS

10* Top Play OVER the total in New Orleans - This game was moved to Jacksonville because of the hurricane damage in New Orleans. This total is as low as 49 as of early game day morning and I love the value here. The Saints defense performed admirably well last season but lost a ton of veteran experience and now relying on some youth and inexperience. They'll be fine long-term but facing Aaron Rodgers and the top-scoring offense from last season is not how you want to open up your new season breaking in a lot of new guys on defense. While the Packers averaged 32 points per game last season, they also allowed 27 points per game in their first 7 road games of the season (last game held decrepit Bears offense to 16 points at Chicago). So the point is, away from Lambeau Field in particular, the Packers defense is not so special. I know the Saints offense (averaged 30 points a game last year) will not be the same without Drew Brees. However, this is still a well-coached team with a lot of weapons on offense and I except them to have success against a Packers defense that has proven to NOT travel well. 10* OVER the total in New Orleans

NFL 8* Indianapolis Colts +3 - Generally speaking I like home dogs in the NFL. This is particularly true when that home dog is a well-coached solid football team. The Colts check all the boxes in that regard and I expect Carson Wentz, re-united with former Eagles OC Frank Reich (now HC of Colts) to enjoy solid success here. The thing is he is on a much better overall football team as the Eagles were trending the wrong way and have truly turned into a dysfunctional organization. If Wentz stays healthy, just watch what he does with the Colts long-term. Maybe he won't have his best game right out of the gate here but he does not have to have his A game here. The Colts are solid defensively and also can be strong with ground game and through the shorter passing attack. Definitely I have respect for the Seahawks but they have covered just 3 times in theirs last 14 road openers. Seattle was great at home last season but ATS but struggled on the road. In fact, if you took the home team in every Seahawks game last season you went 12-4 ATS with your bets! Statistically the Colts were the better team last season for overall offense, overall defense, and in terms of pass protection. I know Seattle ended up with the better record but you can see why I am seeing line value here especially with the line move. I'll grab the home dog that went from being a -3 in this match-up to a full 6-point swing the other way and they are now a 3-point dog. I'll take it! 8* INDIANAPOLIS

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #451 Thursday 10* Top Play Dallas Cowboys +8 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:20 ET - As long-time followers know, being a contrarian is ingrained into my long-term handicapping skillsets. That said, there is no sport more so than NFL where being a contrarian is a huge key to long-term success. I have also talked before about the sharpness of odds makers and about trusting their numbers in plenty of situations. Odds makers are known for being particularly sharp in the NFL and this is one of those cases where I am putting particularly strong faith in their numbers. Roll back the calendar 7 months ago and just imagine if the Super Bowl was on a neutral field and imagine if it was possible for two NFC teams to square off for the title and it was the 5-11 Cowboys against the 11-5 Bucs. Now make a line. Would your line have been -3? Of course not! Yet take a look at this now in the opening game of 2021. I could be proven wrong but I don't think I will but this could be the biggest "trap line" set in a long time. I am not a believe that the odds makers set trap lines on purpose. I am just saying when something looks "off" it generally fools the public and it is the sharps that end up cashing in. So back to that -3. When lines first opened on this game, and keep in mind the Bucs have all 22 starters back, the first number was a -6 in mid-May. Since this game is being played in TB that line is telling you the Bucs would only be a 3-point favorite on a neutral field. So now, according to the betting masses, the books have it all wrong. This line has been bet up to as high as an 8.5 and the odds makers just do not know what their doing. I am saying they did know what they are doing and the Cowboys are going to be a much improved team this season. The Bucs are, of course, still the better team but I look for this game to be decided by just a single score. Note that last season Dallas was without Prescott for 11 games and it was a disaster season in Dallas. This team will be much improved in year two under coach McCarthy. As for the Bucs, look for them to get caught being a little too "fat and happy" after last year's glorious season where everything seemingly broke their way for a clear path to the SB title. The Cowboys will punch them in the mouth a bit in this game and it will be a lot more competitive than most people are thinking. Keep in mind Tampa Bay went just 4-3 their last 7 home games last season and one of the wins was by 7 points and, overall, only 5 of the Buccaneers final 12 games (including playoffs) leading into their Super Bowl victory was a win by more than 8 points. Just a lot of value after the line move with this one and the odds makers had it right in my opinion so we'll happily grab the value on the other side in typical NFL contrarian style. 10* DALLAS

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #101 Sunday 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs (-) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 6:30 ET - The irony here is incredible. The Chiefs are looking to become the first team to win back to back Super Bowls since the Tom Brady-led Patriots beat the Andy Reid-led Eagles back in 2004. This is Andy Reid's 3rd Super Bowl in his career and he finally gets his shot at Super Bowl revenge against Brady and, in getting a win here, would displace a Brady-led team in the record books as the most recent one to go back to back in the biggest game of them all in all of sports. I don't see Reid and the Chiefs being denied. This will be Reid's 32nd playoff game as a head coach and, as noted above, his 3rd Super Bowl. Tampa Bay is led by Bruce Arians and he is making his Super Bowl debut as a head coach and also entered this post-season 1-2 as a head coach in playoff action. I know this post-season has gone well for Arians and the Bucs but lets take a closer look. They faced a Redskins team without their starting QB and that didn't even belong in the playoffs really. Then they had a +4 turnover ratio against the Saints. Then they got outgained by the Packers in Green Bay but won the game thanks in part to horrible coaching on the part of GB. That will not happen here against Andy Reid and the Chiefs. Also, I love the fact that the Chiefs are just 2-8 ATS their last 10 games while the Buccaneers are on a 6-2 ATS run their last 8 games. Watch that flip in the final game of the year. Also, we certainly do not want a push but do note that 4 of the 5 Bucs losses came by 3 or more points while 15 of the Chiefs 16 wins have come by 3 or more points. This line was a 3.5 earlier but has come down to a solid -3 as of the Thursday before Super Bowl weekend. In other words, it is now "go time" for us. Time to pull the trigger. The fact the regular season meeting was only a 3 point win for the Chiefs despite a yardage edge of 114 is also helping to give us line value here. In what should be a very entertaining game, don't be surprised if coaching and special teams play a key factor in the final outcome and BOTH of those factors FAVOR the Chiefs in a big way here. 10* KANSAS CITY

Playoff Game of the Year – Scott “The Bulldog” Rickenbach NFL Rotation #314 Sunday 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs (-) vs Buffalo Bills @ 6:40 ET – We are getting some line value here because of the Mahomes situation but honestly I expect the Chiefs to comfortably win this game even if Henne had to play the entire contest. But look for Mahomes to be back and just fine. As for the Bills, I do respect them but they have been living a charmed life. Teams that gained over 450 yards in a game and did not turn the ball over had been 11-0 all-time until the Colts did that to Buffalo in the Wild Card round and yet lost the game. Then Buffalo followed up that questionable win with another win. The Bills beat the Ravens thanks in large part to a 101 yard interception return for a TD that totally changed the game around. For the game, Buffalo was outgained 340 to 220 by Baltimore and yet still won. Again, charmed life so far for the Bills but now they face the defending Super Bowl champs off a non-covering win versus the Browns. That failed cover, despite a big half-time lead, has led to solid line value this week and the Chiefs at home are the play in this one. In their last 3 home games that matter (game versus Chargers was meaningless), KC allowed 17 points or less in each game. This is a Chiefs offense that averaged 33 points per game in their final 7 road games of the season. That is the sign of a powerhouse when you can score like that away from home and now the Chiefs are at home and off a frustrating offensive performance which is absolutely going to bring out the best in them today. I have not been as impressed with the Bills offense of late and that is why I see KC pulling away as this one goes on and I expect a win by a double digit margin and, at the very least, a TD margin for the home team. 10* KANSAS CITY

Total of the Month – Scott “The Bulldog” Rickenbach NFL Rotation #311 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 3:05 ET – As of Friday evening, the forecast is for some snow in Green Bay Sunday but it should be finished by game time. Also, winds are not expected to be an issue at all. That said, I expect both offenses to have no issues in this one. The over is 3-0 in the Packers last 3 games and Green Bay has scored an average of 32 points per game this season and has averaged 36 points per game their last 3 games. The Buccaneers also have caught fire at the right time and have averaged 36.6 points per game their last 5 games. Of course I am not expecting 70s here in terms of total points but you can see why, based on the above, the number in the 52 range does indeed seem too low. The over was 5-1 in Tampa Bay’s last 6 road games prior to the game at New Orleans staying under the total. Of course the key reason that game stayed under is Drew Brees was turnover prone and the Saints turned it over 4 times in that one. He was not healthy this season. Aaron Rodgers is healthy and this offense is firing on all cylinders and the Packers will score plenty here but don’t be surprised when Tom Brady and the Bucs match them score for score too. Keep in mind, Tampa Bay hung 38 on the Pack when these teams met a few months ago down in Florida. 10* OVER the total in Green Bay

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #308 Sunday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints (-) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 6:40 ET - there can be two theories as to why this line is dropping to a 2.5 on gameday morning, one would be that the Buccaneers are attracting some attention and primed for an upset, however the other theory is the one I am going with which I believe will prove true in this case, I believe the sharps are setting this one up by knocking it down a little to get that 2.5 everywhere and then they will pound it and we'll see this game at a -3 again before too long and certainly at kickoff, I could be wrong of course but we'll see and either way I like New Orleans a ton here, the Saints have owned the Buccaneers in recent meetings and also all the pressure is on Tom Brady and Tampa Bay here, that is because so much is expected of them and Brady wants to atone for a horrific performance the last time the Bucs were in TB, all that pressure is not going to help the Buccaneers and this is a team that went 1-4 in games against teams with a winning record this season, keep in mind TB lost to NO twice plus lost to KC and the Rams and another loss to a playoff team was to the Bears, though the Saints were not overly impressive last week the Bucs were arguably much worse, Tampa Bay should have annihilated Washington last week but struggled to put them away and I am just not sold on this TB team as they were facing a Washington team that had a ton of issues and question marks for that game, also the Saints defense has allowed 16 points or less in 7 of last 10 games while the Bucs have allowed 23 points or more in 8 of last 10 game, I will gladly lay the short home price here, 10* NEW ORLEANS

Afternoon Annihilation - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Kansas City Chiefs (-) vs Cleveland Browns @ 3:05 ET - the Browns just blew out a division rival nemesis when they crushed the Steelers last week, that was a turnover fueled win for Cleveland, one has to give them credit for that win for sure but they face a much tougher test here, Kansas City is coached by Andy Reid and they are coming off a bye week, in his career Reid's teams have thrived off bye week as they have gone 20-9 ATS and have won 24 of the 29 games SU, undoubtedly the Chiefs will be ready to go and they are the healthier too, the Browns have issues impacting their secondary and their offensive line, those are two areas you particularly don't want to be struggling in when facing these defending Super Bowl champs, the Browns are allowing 30.4 points per game on the road this season while the Chiefs have allowed 20 points or less in 5 of their last 7 meaningful home games, in other words the season finale that didn't matter does not count in those numbers, in fact that also means that KC has effectively been off for a full two weeks in terms of bye weeks and they will really be ready here both physically and mentally, in the Browns last 5 games against playoff teams they have allowed 35.8 points per game, look for a home blowout here, 8* KANSAS CITY

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #303 Saturday 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens (+) @ Buffalo Bills @ 8:15 ET - The Colts last weekend were the first team ever to have over 450 yards of offense in a game with zero turnovers and still lose the game. Teams with those stats had been 11-0. In other words, the Bills got lucky...very lucky! Now their luck runs out this week. While I absolutely respect Buffalo QB Josh Allen and all this offense has done, there is simply no comparison between these defenses. The Ravens have the much better defense. Also, in terms of the Baltimore offense, a running QB like Lamar Jackson gives a defense like the Bills have absolute nightmares. The Bills have allowed 21 points or more in 6 of their last 8 home games. The Ravens have allowed 19 points or less in 6 of their last 7 games. In fact, Baltimore allowed an average of 13 points in those 6 games. Buffalo allowed an average of 27 points per game in those aforementioned 6 home games. I know the full season numbers make the defenses look comparable but I feel strongly they are not. Also, the Ravens had to battle with the Steelers and the Browns in their division while the Bills took advantage of a weaker division. Of course the Jets were garbage, the Patriots ended with a losing record, and the Dolphins (despite a winning record) were pretenders whose full season stats told the full story. Off the fortunate win last week, Buffalo's luck runs out this week and the Ravens advance to the AFC Championship Game. 10* BALTIMORE

Afternoon Annihilation - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #301 Saturday 8* Los Angeles Rams (+) @ Green Bay Packers @ 4:35 ET - Jared Goff has had a little more time to heal his thumb. The Rams also have their run game going strong. Additionally, you are talking about what might be the best defense in the league. They just held a strong Seahawks team to 11 first downs and Seattle QB Russell Wilson to 11 of 27 with his passing. The Packers offense certainly presents a tougher challenge but the Rams defense will be up to the task. At the same time, the Green Bay defense is susceptible to strong ground games and I like what Los Angeles has been doing on that side of the ball in recent games. The Packers are just 3-3 ATS in their last 6 home games. The Rams, including playoffs, are 11-6 SU this season and only 3 of those 17 games was a loss by more than a 3 point margin for LA. In other words, great value with the big points here in my opinion. 8* LOS ANGELES RAMS

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #152 Sunday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (-) vs Cleveland Browns @ 8:15 ET - Following the money is not something I often do but there are exceptions. In this case, Pittsburgh is getting a lot of attention from the betting markets but rightfully so. Not only are the Steelers the much better defense, the Browns are dealing with a number of key issues. Cleveland has injury issues and has had covid issues which has impacted their preparation for this game plus forced guys out and has even forced their head coach out. That means the Browns interim head coach on the sideline will be their special teams coordinator. That makes for a very tall mountain to climb when you consider the Steelers wealth of playoff experience at head coach and as a team. Keep in mind, Mike Tomlin and Pittsburgh are playoff warriors while Browns QB Baker Mayfield will be making his first ever playoff start. Cleveland's pass defense is allowing 288 yards per game when on the road this season. Pittsburgh's pass defense is allowing just 104 yards per game this season. The Browns will turn to their ground game to try and take some pressure off Mayfield here but the Steelers allowed just 93 rushing yards per game when at home. Cleveland went 1-5 ATS this season when on the road and facing teams not in the NFC East...in other words, teams with a pulse! Pittsburgh went 5-2 ATS in their final 7 home games this season. The Steelers have a long history of dominating the Browns when they face them at Heinz Field and that continues here. 10* PITTSBURGH

Wild Card Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #147 Sunday 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens (+) Tennessee Titans @ 1:05 ET - Revenge can be overplayed for sure but when the situation is "just right" it certainly can be a major factor. This is one of those cases. Not only did the Ravens lose to the Titans in the post-season last year, they also lost again in the regular season this year. Also, though they lost to Tennessee in the playoffs a year ago, Baltimore actually significantly outgained the Titans in that game but turnovers were the difference. Now you can't (or shouldn't) just blindly play games because of a revenge angle. But in this case, other factors line up which lead to the value. The Ravens have the much better defense in this match-up as they allow only 18.9 points per game. Also, Baltimore went 6-2 on the road this season. Tennessee has allowed 33.3 points per game their last 3 home games and also lost 3 of their last 5 home games this season. The Titans truly don't show a big home field edge and also struggled against stronger teams including losses to the Steelers, Browns, Packers and Colts. The road team is 3-0 SU and ATS in the last 3 meetings between these teams and that trend continues here. The Titans defense, in my opinion, simply can not be trusted here. The Ravens allowed 19 points or less in 5 of their last 6 games. Tennessee allowed 38 points or more in 3 of their last 5 games. 10* BALTIMORE

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #145 Saturday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-) @ Washington @ 8:15 ET - While it may seem tough to lay more than a TD on the road in a playoff game you'll feel better about it after you read a few things here. First off, the Buccaneers went 6-2 on the road this season plus they have a great run defense and a fantastic passing attack. Secondly, they are taking on a Washington team that went 4-2 against their own division which is the NFC East which could easily be re-named the NFC Least based on how things went this season. The team that almost beat them for the division was the New York Giants and Washington lost both games with them. In other words, this is not a very good football team and one of their other wins was against a Bengals team that went 4-11-1 this season. Additionally, another win was against the 49ers but Washington was outgained by over 150 yards in that game and fortunate to win. Unlike Washington, Tampa Bay has plenty of quality wins on their resume this season and plus the Bucs only played one game (Giants) against an NFC East foe. That said, the Buccaneers absolutely played the tougher schedule of these teams. Also, although Alex Smith is back at QB for Washington he is not 100 percent. As for TB's Mike Evans he is listed as questionable but has progressed very well this week and has no ligament damage so the top wide receiver should be very ready to go here for this one. Washington went just 2-5 SU in their final 7 home games this season and one of those wins was against the 4-11-1 Bengals! The home edge for Washington is simply not there and Tampa Bay traveled very well this season. Also, the Buccaneers average margin of victory was 17.4 points per game in their 11 wins this season. Washington scored an average of 15 points per game in their 5 home losses this season and the Bucs averaged 31 points per game this season. You can see why I am expecting TB to win this game by at least a two TD margin here. Lay it! 10* TAMPA BAY

Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #141 Saturday 8* Indianapolis Colts (+) @ Buffalo Bills @ 1:05 ET - The Colts are very well coached and catching nearly a touchdown in this one. I know the Bills finished the season hot but Indianapolis is solid defensively. Also, the Bills faced some weak competition during their 6-game winning streak to close out the season. Don't get me wrong, Buffalo is certainly a very solid team, I am just saying that we have solid line value here with a very live dog in my opinion. The Colts went 5-2 SU/ATS in their final 7 road games of the season. Indianapolis also closed the season quite strong especially when you consider they dealt with some injury and covid-related issues over the final 5 weeks of the season. That is helping to give us some line value here in this one as is the fact the Colts blew a huge lead and lost to the Steelers a few weeks ago while Buffalo is off a big blowout win over Miami in the season finale. It all adds up to getting some additional line value with a road dog that travels well and plays solid defense plus has a future hall of famer, Rivers, at QB. Again, I like the coaching factor here too as I am impressed with Frank Reich and feel he could be an X-factor in this one too. The offensive mind of his trying to outsmart Bills head coach Sean McDermott who is a former defensive coordinator. Let the games begin, literally, and the dog takes the NFL Wild Card weekend opener - or at least takes the money in this one! 8* INDIANAPOLIS

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #102 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (+) vs Washington @ 8:20 ET - This line is simply an over-reaction to the fact the Redskins need to win and the fact that the Eagles looked like garbage at Dallas last week. Head coach Doug Pederson is supposedly staying with the team but a meeting is scheduled for Tuesday. However, defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz is contemplating retirement and, at the very least, going to take a year off from the game in his estimation. Either way, Philadelphia is likely to now give more of an effort than you would have otherwise anticipated here. Yes it is a rivalry game and, yes, the Eagles can play the role of spoiler. However, the Eagles might have "mailed it in" were it not for the coaching situation noted above. Additionally, Philly is continuing to develop rookie QB Jalen Hurts and would like to close the season with a win. The fact we're getting 4 points here, after this line opened up around a pick'em, means even more value with the home dog in this one and Philly does tend to play better at home. The Eagles are 3-1 SU in their last 4 home games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Washington expected to have QB Alex Smith for this one but he is not 100% healthy and, overall, Washington is 2-4 ATS in true road games this season (7th game was on a neutral field). All the pressure is on the road team and the relaxed home team with nothing to lose is also catching sizable points in this one. The situation is too good to pass up on as an outright upset actually is quite likely here given the circumstances but grab the points for added insurance. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Divisional Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #103 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars @ 4:25 ET - The Colts had a huge lead last week and still lost the game. Granted that game was against the Steelers and not a 1-14 Jacksonville team but, still, the point is that Indianapolis is likely to keep their foot on the gas for the full 60 minutes. That should mean a ton of points  here because the Jaguars have allowed an average of 31 points this season and there is nothing "average" about this situation either. The Colts also have revenge from losing their season opener at Jacksonville. So there are multiple reasons to believe that Indy is going to certainly score better than the average that Jax allows. Also, the Colts are about a 14 point favorite here so you're talking about a 35-21 or 38-24 type game here. I could see Jacksonville scoring some points here in garbage time too and they won't be able to run on the Indy D so they'll be airing out all game long! What do they have to lose? Nothing as the Jags have already locked up the #1 pick in the draft and so they may as well air out in this one and let the chips fall where they may. That means a lot more points than many are expecting here and this one should get well into the 50s, if not 60s. 10* OVER the total in Indianapolis

Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #131 Sunday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals (-) @ Los Angeles Rams @ 4:25 ET - Long-time followers know I am a contrarian so it would make perfect sense that I would have a contrarian play as my Game of the Year. The fact is that the Rams are on a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS run in games against the Cardinals. So my play in this all important must-win game is, of course, on Arizona and laying the points even though Los Angeles has had the upper hand in this series with Sean McVay as head coach. The key here is not only that Rams QB Jared Goff is out with a broken thumb and John Wolford will be making his first ever NFL start. It is also that the Rams are without other numerous starters and key players for this one. That means QB Kyler Murray and the Cardinals should have the upper hand (finally!) in this match-up and I look for Arizona to pull away as this one goes on. They are off a disappointing loss to the 49ers but the Cardinals entered that game off back to back victories and will respond here with a big win. They got themselves back into the playoff race and now want to make sure their divisional nemesis does not get into the post-season plus Arizona themselves can get in with a win here and a Chicago loss. So there is plenty at stake in this game and the Cardinals are the much healthier team and the Rams enter this one off back to back losses and have truly let their season sleep away and they know it. This will be tough for Los Angeles to bounce back from and they are short-handed here plus dealing with covid issues. It all adds up to a blowout win for the road favorite in this one. The Cardinals Murray will have a huge game and I know this may seem like a very contrarian play but the road team is favored for a reason over a team they have lost to 7 straight times. That streak ends here in convincing fashion. Lay the small number. 10* ARIZONA

Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #108 Sunday 8* New York Giants (+) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 1 ET - Did the Cowboys beat the Eagles last week or was it more that the Eagles beat themselves? It truly was more the latter than the former and I feel Dallas is being vastly over-valued in this spot. This game still matters to the Giants. With a win here and an Eagles home win over the Redskins tonight, New York is in the playoffs as the NFC East divisional champs. Dallas is favored on the road here but this is a team that was 1-5 SU and ATS in road games this season before destroying a Cincinnati team that was a mess when they faced them. I am well aware the Giants have lost 3 straight games but they also faced 3 tough teams that all have a winning record and are currently a combined 28-17 on the season. Prior to this tough stretch, New York had won 4 straight games SU and also was on a 7-2 ATS run. With all that is at stake here I look for a huge game from the home dog in this one. 8* NEW YORK GIANTS

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #482 Monday 10* Top Play New England Patriots (+) vs Buffalo Bills @ 8:15 ET - The Bills clinched the AFC East last week while the Patriots clinched missing the post-season! This is not the norm of course and certainly fits the bill as a role reversal. That said, New England is likely to be very motivated for this game. This is particularly true because Cam Newton's fumble in the red zone at Buffalo cost the Pats a chance to win the game in the first meeting this season. You know that coach Bill Belichick and the Patriots badly want this rematch while one could certainly question the motivation of the Bills here after clinching the division last week. I am well aware of the fact that Newton has struggled badly this season and that Buffalo definitely has the better offense in this match-up. However, I do expect Newton and the Pats to bring their A game in this one as they get a shot at the team that has dethroned them at the top of their division and they get that shot in a Monday Night game at home in Foxboro, MA. Note that the Patriots do hold the defensive edge in this match-up and that they are 4-2 SU at home this season. One of those home losses came by just 6 points and the line on this game is +7 plus New England's home wins include victories over Miami and Baltimore and those teams are each 10-5 on the season! The Patriots are fully capable of winning this game outright and the fact we are getting a full TD here thanks to the betting markets is simply tremendous added value in this spot. I expect the home dog to put up a helluva fight in this one and the Pats are 6-0 ATS the last 6 times they have been a host underdog. Also, the Patriots had won 9 of last 10 against Bills before the tough 3-point loss at Buffalo earlier this season. Payback time. 10* NEW ENGLAND

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #480 Sunday 8* Green Bay Packers (-) vs Tennessee Titans @ 8:20 ET - The Titans have a lot of pressure on them. Yes they are 10-4 on the season and tied for the top spot in the AFC South but they may not even make the playoffs! They haven't even clinched a post-season spot yet! That said, the playoff pressure absolutely could get to them here. As for the Packers, they sit at a sweet 11-3 on the season and have already locked up the NFC North. Yes, Green Bay still has incentive to win as they would love to lock up home field edge for the post-season but the pressure they feel is very minute compared to what the Titans are feeling here. Considering that as well as the Packers being the much better team defensively and having the home field edge here and the fact the line has gone from a -5 on GB to just a -3, yes I am backing the host in this one in a big way! Green Bay is on a 9-4 ATS run in games against AFC opponents. The Packers are allowing only 337.8 yards per game which ranks their defense in the top 25% of the league. Conversely, the Titans are allowing nearly 400 yards per game and they rank in the bottom third of the NFL defensively. Tennessee's most recent road game was against a very bad Jacksonville team but, prior to that, the Titans allowed an average of 28 points per game in 4 preceding road games. The Packers enter this game on a 4-game winning streak and have won 6 of their last 7 games overall and have allowed only 19.7 points per game in those 6 victories. The Packers defense doesn't get a lot of respect but they have been better than many realize and, as for QB Aaron Rodgers and this GB offense, they will have a huge day against the porous defense of the Titans. That sets this one up well for an absolute home blowout. 8* GREEN BAY

Rivalry Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #477 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - It seems crazy but the Eagles, even with a 4-9-1 record, are still alive in the race for the NFC East. That's because they play Washington next week. If the Eagles win this game and Washington and the Giants (at Ravens) lose today, then the Eagles control their own destiny. That said, there will be no quit in the Eagles today as they look to keep their playoff hopes alive. Of course, the Cowboys are still alive too but their back to back wins are very deceiving. They beat a very bad Bengals team when Cincinnati was still adjusting to life without Joe Burrow at QB. Then, last week's win over San Francisco was quite deceiving. The 49ers held Dallas under 300 yards of offense and the Cowboys had just 15 first downs in the game but won it thanks to turnovers. They now face an Eagles team that is off a loss at Arizona which was also an ATS loss for most as they were a 6.5 point dog for most in that game. That is noteworthy here as, since a rough ATS start to the season way back in September, the Eagles have had back to back ATS losses only once. They have been scoring more points with Hurts at QB instead of Wentz and he accounted for over 400 yards of offense plus 4 total TDs in the loss to the Cardinals last week. While the Cowboys have allowed 28 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games, the Eagles had allowed an average of only 22 points per game their last 7 games before the loss at Arizona. The Philly D will dominate the game here against a Cowboys offense that has endured a lot of struggles including in divisional action. In fact, Dallas is just 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in divisional action this season. Look for the Cowboys to drop to 0-5 ATS in divisional games this season as the Eagles bounce back from last week's loss with hopes still alive for being in the driver's seat for the NFC East division next week. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #469 Sunday 8* Carolina Panthers (+) @ Washington @ 4:05 ET - Typical contrarian play for me here. The Panthers have lost 8 of their last 9 games and yet are only a 1 point dog here against a Washington team that is trying to lock up the NFC East division and has won 4 of their last 5 games SU and 5 in a row ATS. Of course I am on Carolina in a contrarian spot like this and will fade Washington. The big issue for the host here is that QB Alex Smith is hurt and might miss this game. If he plays he won't be near 100 percent and if he doesn't play it means we're seeing Dwayne Haskins under center and he has struggled. I like the fact that Carolina, though struggling to get SU wins, has been very scrappy. The Panthers are still playing hard and they are hungry for a victory and they would love to play the role of spoiler. Adding up all those factors plus being the healthier team (Washington also without top WR Terry McLaurin for this one), Carolina is the play in this one. The Panthers are on a 5-1 ATS run as a road dog and also outgained the Packers in their loss at Green Bay last week. Additionally, Carolina has revenge from losing to Washington each of the past two seasons despite the Panthers having more first downs in each game. Payback time here as they play the role of spoiler on the road Sunday. 8* CAROLINA

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #462 Saturday NFL 10* Top Play Las Vegas Raiders (+) vs Miami Dolphins @ 8:15 ET - The Dolphins are off a huge win versus the Patriots last week. Not only does that make this a potential flat spot for Miami, note also that the Dolphins were only 2-2 SU in their 4 preceding games. Also, those two wins came against the Jets and Bengals. Those teams have a combined 4-23-1 record on the season. I know the Dolphins have some solid numbers on defense this season but they are still fortunate to be 11-3 this season as they have a weak offense and also have played a much weaker schedule than the Raiders. That said, I love having Las Vegas as a home dog in this match-up. Plus, Carr is expected back at QB for this one and note that Mariota did play well in relief of Carr last week and is a dual-threat QB. Either way, I expect this talented Raiders offense to put a lot of pressure on the Dolphins. That said, Miami's anemic offense will struggle to keep up in this game. Miami is averaging just 313 yards in road games this season while the Raiders are averaging 386 yards in home games this season. Las Vegas has scored 27 points or more in 6 of its last 7 games while the Dolphins have not scored more than 27 points in any of their last 5 games. From a situational standpoint, with Miami off a huge divisional win and the Raiders off back to back home losses, this one sets up perfectly for a big top play on the home team. Grab the home dog in this one. 10* LAS VEGAS

Afternoon Annihilation - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #459 Saturday 8* San Francisco 49ers (+) @ Arizona Cardinals @ 4:30 ET - Keep in mind, the 49ers have already been playing their "home" games at this venue in Arizona due to covid-related restrictions imposed in California. That said, this isn't much of a "road" game for the Niners and I love the fact that they are a sizable dog here despite the fact they deserved much better than what they got at Dallas last  week. That loss to the Cowboys was despite a huge yardage edge of 167 yards and is helping to give us line value this week. Keep in mind, the Cardinals are off a key win over the Eagles last week and could fall flat here. The 49ers will be up for facing a divisional foe and with the ability to play the role of spoiler and note that Arizona is just 2-6 ATS the last 8 times they have been a home favorite. The Niners have covered 7 of their last 10 road games. Look for those trends to continue here. 8* SAN FRANCISCO

Christmas Day Special - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #452 Friday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints (-) vs Minnesota Vikings @ 4:30 ET - The Viking season effectively came to an end last week with their home loss to the Bears. That defeat eliminated Minnesota from post-season contention. As for the Saints, they are off a loss last week but it came against the Super Bowl Champion Chiefs. Not only that, New Orleans now has Drew Brees back under center but they also are trying to hold off the Buccaneers for the NFC South division title. That said, coming off back to back losses but at home and highly motivated, I fully expect a blowout win for the Saints in this one. New Orleans has the much better defense in this match-up plus they catch a Minnesota team that could be flat after their disappointing result last week ended their playoff hopes for this season. Given the emotional letdown for the Vikings as well as considering their struggles on defense, Minnesota can be expected to drop to 1-5 ATS the last 6 times they have been a road dog. As for the Saints, they had won 9 straight games SU and 5 in a row ATS before this two game skid against the Eagles and Chiefs. With their leader, Brees, back in the fold you will see a very determined New Orleans team in this one and they will keep the hammer down all game long. 4 of the Vikings losses this season have come by at least 9 points and this one will too. Remember the Saints have revenge too from the playoff loss to the Vikings in OT last season! Also, 4 of the last 5 wins for NO have come by a margin of at least 2 TD's. Look for another huge margin victory in this one. Lay it! 10* NEW ORLEANS 

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #370 Monday 10* Top Play Cincinnati Bengals (+) vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:15 ET - The Bengals lost to the Cowboys last week but actually held the yardage edge in that game. Also, Pittsburgh is off back to back losses and will be happy just to win this game which means the victory will not necessarily come in blowout fashion! The Steelers have a tough home with the surging Colts on deck so they will leave a little in the tank for that one coming up on Sunday. As for facing Cincinnati, this is simply a "game management" type game for Pittsburgh in my opinion. Just grind out a win, don't make big mistakes, stay healthy, and move forward to bigger and better things. For the Bengals, it is anything but that. This is Cincinnati's chance to get a big primetime upset win over a division rival. Of course I am not saying that will happen as I certainly don't expect an outright win. But I do feel that the spread of 14.5 on this game is too much. I am looking for a loss in the 7 to 10 point range. The Steelers are actually on an ugly 0-5 ATS run as a road favorite in divisional action. Also, the Bengals have covered 6 of the last 8 times they have been a divisional home dog. Prior to the loss to the Cowboys (ugly defeat but yardage edge for Cincinnati), the Bengals were on a 4-0 ATS run in home games. Note that the Steelers enter this game on an 0-3 ATS run. Look for this one to be a bit ugly and for it to remain a much closer game than many are expecting as the home team goes all out in this rare primetime game as a host. 10* CINCINNATI

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #361 Sunday 8* Cleveland Browns (-) @ New York Giants @ 8:20 ET - The Giants, especially without QB Daniel Jones (expected to be out again) just do not have the offensive firepower to keep up with this red hot Browns offense. That is why I am willing to lay the points here with Cleveland on the road. I just don't see the Giants scoring enough to hang around in this game. Granted, the New York defense has some great numbers on the season and I do respect their D. But they also have been helped by facing a lot of weak and struggling offenses including those of their fellow NFC East counterparts. That said, facing a Browns team that put up over 40 points in back to back weeks and has averaged 33 points their last 4 games presents an entirely different level of challenge to the New York defense. Also, the Giants are allowing 25 points per game in home games this season so they actually have been better away from home. I know the Browns defense has some scary bad numbers but the New York offense is really hurting without a healthy Jones under center. And Colt McCoy? Sorry but he has never been a quality NFL quarterback and especially now in his mid-30s and with little playing time in recent years he is even less of a back-up than he use to be in his prime. So here you have a Giants offense that has averaged 14 points per game their last 3 games and that doesn't many weapons and lost their best one, RB Barkley, early this season. New York faces a Cleveland team that is off a loss and hasn't lost back to back games this entire season. The Browns are clearly on a mission this season and the better team pulls away as this game goes on. Lay it! 8* CLEVELAND

Game of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #363 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Arizona Cardinals @ 4:05 ET - The NFC East is still up for grabs. Certainly the Eagles have put themselves in a hole but the win over the Saints last week with Hurts now in at QB has breathed life into the Eagles. If the Redskins - about a TD dog to Seattle - lose in early action Sunday then Philadelphia could move to within a 1/2 game of first place in the NFC East and, keep in mind, they face the Redskins in the final game of the regular season. In other words, at least at this point in time, the Eagles still have life courtesy of the win over New Orleans last week. Now Philly takes on an Arizona team that is off a win but that victory was preceded by a 1-4 SU run and 0-5 ATS run. In other words, the Cardinals have been struggling badly and the Eagles are 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games. They can remain competitive in this game even if they ultimately fall short. Philadelphia, before an ugly loss to Tampa Bay, had seen 3 of their 4 prior losses come by a margin of 6 or less points. This one will fall into that category too or could even be an outright Philly win. Why? Well the Cardinals are allowing 29.5 points per game when at home this season and simply can't be trusted here. Before Arizona's win over a Giants team with a punchless offense, the Cards allowed 31 points per game their preceding 6 games. The Eagles enter this game having allowed an average of 22 points per game their last 7 games. Also, Philly has positive energy again after the win over the Saints. That will show up on the field here this week as Arizona drops to 1-7 ATS the last 8 times they have been a home favorite. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #352 Sunday 8* Atlanta Falcons (+) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 1 ET - A lot of nice angles for the Falcons in this one. Though it did take OT for Atlanta to win the most recent meeting they did hold a 28-14 first down edge in that game at Tampa Bay. Also, the Buccaneers are off a win but that was preceded by losing 3 of 4 games. The Falcons are off back to back losses but that was preceded by a solid 4-2 SU/ATS stretch. In other words, lets not be too quick to judge just based on last week's results and note too that the Bucs were actually outgained in their win over the Vikings last week. Atlanta has covered 6 of the last 8 times they have been a home dog in divisional action and this line is moving to as high as a +7 for this one! Plus their interim head coach, Morris, use to be a head coach for TB about a decade ago but then was fired after only a couple seasons. You know this one means a little extra for him! The Falcons lost on a field goal as time expired at LA against the Chargers last week but now they can regroup at home where they haven't lost a game by more than 7 points since their season opener! Excellent home dog value here as Tom Brady and the Bucs continue to be over-rated. 8* ATLANTA

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #344 Saturday 10* Top Play Green Bay Packers (-) vs Carolina Panthers @ 8:15 ET - The Panthers have been successful as a road dog but they also have been fortunate. They have forced 2 turnovers per game on the road this season. That is unlikely to happen against these Packers as they have turned the ball over just 3 times in 6 home games this season! Also, Carolina has nothing to play for now. Up until last week they still had some hope of maybe making a run. But the loss to Denver guarantees a losing season and guarantees that the Panthers are going nowhere this season. That is tough for a football team when reality sets in and so Carolina goes on the road right after finding out their season is officially finished. Green Bay wins this game as they are 5-1 SU at home this season but of course the all important question is whether or not they cover. I feel strongly they will because I expect a very disinterested effort from the Panthers here and note Green Bay so often wins big. 4 of their 5 home wins this season have come by a margin of 14 or more points! The last time that Carolina faced a strong team they were at home against Tampa Bay and got blasted by 23 points! Since then they have faced nothing but teams with a losing record and I now look for them to struggle against a Packers team that is still playing hard for home field edge in the NFC. Their 10-3 record has them tied with the Saints for top spot in the conference. Green Bay caught a break when New Orleans was knocked off by the lowly Eagles in a big upset. That good break has brought even more positive energy to a Packers locker-room that has already been surging with momentum thanks to three straight wins and victories in 5 of their last 6 games. These two teams will prove to be at opposite ends of the motivation spectrum for this game and that means Lambeau Field turns into Blowout City for the home team when the final whistle sounds on this one. Lay it! 10* GREEN BAY

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #301 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers @ 8:20 ET - Look for a back and forth shootout here. Not only are the Raiders dealing with injuries on defense, the Chargers passing attack is averaging 270 yards per game this season and threw for 312 yards in their first meeting with Las Vegas this season. This is a revenge game for LA as they lost the first meeting despite a yardage edge of 120 yards. The reason I am on the over here is because I just don't trust the Chargers defense enough against a Las Vegas team that has averaged 267 passing yards and 29 points in their home games this season. I know the Chargers have some solid defensive numbers on the season but their road games have included facing weak offenses such as Cincinnati, Denver, and Miami. Also, in their 5 most recent road games Los Angeles has allowed 31 points per game. As for the Raiders defense, they have had one strong showing at home (against Denver) but have been throttled in their other 5 home games to the tune of 35.6 points per game. The Chargers most recent road game resulted in an under but, prior to that, it was a streak of 4 straight overs in Chargers away games! As for Las Vegas, only 1 of their 6 home games has resulted in an under. This is a big total posted on this game but don't let that big number scare you away. Both teams should move the ball well here as the Chargers offense also is looking a little healthier for this game and I have no doubts about the Raiders potent attack on offense at home but their defensive injuries will hurt them (literally) in this one as well. 10* OVER the total in Las Vegas

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #179 Monday 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens (-) @ Cleveland Browns @ 8:15 ET - This is a contrarian play and, as long-time followers know, going contrarian is something I often do in the NFL. The fact is that the Browns are 2 games in front of the Ravens in the standings plus they are at home where they are 5-1 on the season. Also, Cleveland has revenge from getting hammered at Baltimore in their season opener. Additionally the Browns have the rest edge here since they have been playing Sunday games for weeks on end whereas the Ravens had the recent scheduling problems with their game against the Steelers. As a result, Baltimore will be playing for the 3rd time in a span of 13 days when they take the field tonight. However, considering all of the above, when the markets look at this game they will wonder how in the world it can be that it is the Ravens who are favored by a field goal on the road in this one? My response to that is...exactly! In other words, don't be fooled by the line here or the situation. The odds makers are telling you all you need to know here and that is that Baltimore is the better team and favored for a reason. I like the fact that they have allowed a total of just 36 points their last two games whereas the Browns allowed 35 points at Tennessee last week and 25 at Jacksonville the week before. Also, I like the fact that other than the win over Titans and a win over the Colts, the Browns other 7 wins have come against 6 teams (beat Bengals twice) with a combined record of 21-55-2 on the season! Now they take on a Ravens team that, though they've underperformed at times this season, are still a Baltimore team that is off a 14-2 season last year. Also, in road games this season when Lamar Jackson is under center, the Ravens have gone 4-1 this year. Give the Browns some credit for getting tight wins when they have needed to but also they have been blasted by a combined 92-19 in their 3 losses this season and I sense another one here. Off the big confidence-boosting win over the Cowboys last week, the Ravens are back in the saddle again and I fully expect a dominating road performance here and the better defense keys the victory here. 10* BALTIMORE

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #178 Sunday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (-) vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:20 ET - This is a tough spot for the Steelers. I know many will be jumping on them here as they expect them to bounce back off their first loss of the season and because Pittsburgh does have the better defense in this match-up. However, due to that strange scheduling quirk with the Steelers match-up with the Ravens being played almost a full week later than originally scheduled, Pittsburgh is now playing their 3rd game in 12 days! That is tough on a team plus they faced a Baltimore team that is a physical rival of theirs plus they faced a tough Redskins defense. How much will the Steelers have left in the tank here? I feel it won't be enough to get past a strong Bills team. Keep in mind, Pittsburgh's road wins have included beating the Titans (but only by a field goal) and the Ravens (but Steelers were significantly out-statted). But the other Pitt road wins were against teams that are a combined 9-27 on the season. Now they travel to face a Buffalo team that is 5-1 SU at home this season with the only loss coming against the world champion Chiefs. Overall the Bills enter this game having covered 4 straight while the Steelers are now off back to back ATS losses. I know Pittsburgh has revenge from last year's home loss to Buffalo as well but this is simply a very bad spot for them. 3 NFL game in a dozen days and especially when facing physical teams in the 2 prior games...it is just not a good set up. The home team holds the edges here. Also, the Bills have scored an average of 34 points their last 4 games while the Steelers have averaged just 18 points their last 2 games. The home team playing with a lot of confidence right now and will be executing better on offense than Pittsburgh given the circumstances. 10* BUFFALO

Non-Conf Total of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #169 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Seattle Seahawks vs New York Jets @ 4:05 ET - We are getting a little lower total here because the 0-12 Jets are involved and because the Seahawks have been trending under for many weeks now. I'll take advantage of the lower number and go with the over here based on the situation. The Jets have some confidence from scoring 28 points last week even though they still ultimately fell short to the Raiders. As for the Seahawks, they are angry about losing at home to the Giants but that was a tougher defense they faced and they still managed 21 first downs in the game but just didn't have the points to show for it. The Seahawks are now angry coming off a loss and Russell Wilson and Company won't hold back against a New York defense that ranks as one of the worst in the league. Not only that, the Seahawks defense is just as bad and Sam Darnold and Company will take advantage. Seattle is a huge favorite here for a reason. They will score a ton of points. The thing is that the Jets also could get a late backdoor cover here because their offense will score some points too. New York has scored at least 27 in 3 of their last 4 games. The Seahawks, before scoring just 12 points last week, had scored an average of 33 points per game in their first 5 home games this season. Now in a back to back home game situation, the high-scoring ways resume here. 10* OVER the total in Seattle

Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #160 Sunday 8* Chicago Bears (+) vs Houston Texans @ 1 ET - You wouldn't know it based on the way they played last week but the Bears do have a solid defense. That said, after getting embarrassed at home by allowing 400 passing yards to the Lions last week, I do expect a big response from the Chicago defense in the 2nd game of back to back home contests. No one likes getting embarrassed at home and no one likes losing 6 straight games but that is currently the situation for the Bears. They will respond here against a Texans team that is getting a little too much respect from the betting markets. Houston has one of the worst defenses in the league and, prior to winning their most recent road game, had been 1-4 SU and ATS in road games this season. Chicago's offense has been moving the ball better with Trubisky at QB again and will take advantage of the porous Texans defense in this one. To the public bettor it will look easy to take Houston here and fade a Bears team on a 6-game losing streak. In typical contrarian fashion, I am on the other side of that thinking and grabbing the home dog in this one as they respond off last week's home loss to Detroit. 8* CHICAGO

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #102 Thursday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams (-) vs New England Patriots @ 8:20 ET - The Patriots are off a huge 45-0 road win over the Chargers. However, don't jump to conclusions based on that one performance. For one thing, New England only had a yardage edge of 33 yards in that game. Secondly, the Patriots entered that game having lost 4 of 5 road games SU and ATS. So New England is off a rare road win. As for the Rams, their most recent home game was a rare loss. Yes, Los Angeles was a perfect 4-0 SU at home before they lost hosting San Francisco two weeks ago. The Rams responded by blasting the Cardinals at Arizona last week. Unlike the Pats, LA actually had a big yardage edge that justified the big win. Los Angeles dominated their division rival to the tune of a 463-232 edge in yardage. Not only that, the Rams have big time revenge here because they lost in the Super Bowl in an embarrassing performance against Tom Brady and the Patriots two years ago. Will they get their revenge? I feel strongly that they absolutely will as Brady is now in Tampa Bay and Cam Newton has struggled badly in his time with the Patriots. New England enters this game off back to back wins but has averaged just 235 yards of offense in those two victories. The Patriots will prove to be no match for a revenge-minded Rams team that has the much better offense plus one of the best defenses in the NFL. This line may seem set in a strange range considering it is a -5 but don't let that scare you away on this one. It is bigger than a 3 or 4 for a reason and I see LA pulling away for a victory by a double digit margin in this one. Look for the Rams to improve to 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games while the Patriots drop to 2-5 SU and ATS in road games this season. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS 

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #483 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Ravens vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:05 ET - Decent weather expected in Baltimore this evening as it will be chilly but no precipitation and winds will be subsiding by the evening hours after a little bit of breeziness in the afternoon. That means both offenses should be fully functional here and I expect a huge effort from the Ravens offensive unit as they get QB Lamar Jackson back for this one. He will give the Cowboys defense fits in this one. Dallas has struggled on that side of the ball all season and has allowed 32.6 points per game on the year! The offense for the Cowboys has had struggles but they faced adversity with losing starting QB Dak Prescott to season-ending injury and then also being without QB Andy Dalton some too (covid-19). Dalton will be under center for this one and, interestingly, he has had some big games in his career against the Ravens. As a member of the Bengals, Dalton would face division rival Baltimore twice a year. Can he recapture some of that magic here? The Ravens have allowed 28 points or more in 3 of their last 4 home games. Each of Baltimore's last two home games have gone over the total. Look for that to go to 3-0 L3 after this one is in the books as the Cowboys also move to 3-0 to the over their last 3 games overall. Dallas is off that ugly effort versus the Redskins and will respond here (scored 31 in most recent road game) but won't be able to stop a Ravens team that is also fired up to play better on offense with coming off a loss but now getting Jackson back. Plenty of points in this one. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #485 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Francisco 49ers vs Buffalo Bills @ 8:15 ET in Glendale, AZ - This game being played in Arizona because of the covid issues in California and that fact is crazy and I expect this game to be a little crazy as well. The 49ers are off a huge upset win against the division rival Rams and that could leave the defense a little flat for this one. Also, San Francisco had allowed an average of 32.7 points per game in its 3 games preceding the win over the Rams. Now the Niners take on a Bills team that has won 4 of its last 5 games and scored an average of 31.3 points per game in its last 4 games overall. Buffalo's defense was supposed to be its strength heading into this season but they have underachieved a bit this season and, as a result, are a little over-rated. That is helping to keep this total lower than it should be. The Bills are off a solid win over the Chargers in which they allowed just 17 points but that was preceded by a stretch in which Buffalo allowed 27.6 points per game over their 9 preceding games. San Francisco is not known for their offensive production but they have scored at least 23 points in 4 of their last 6 games and have scored an average of 27 points per game in non-conference action this season. The Bills have averaged scoring 36.3 points per game in their non-conference match-ups this season. All 3 of Buffalo's non-conference games went over the total while 2 of 3 for the Niners went over the total. All signs point to a high-scoring match-up here based on the long-term trending too and we'll take advantage of the lower total that has been helped by last week's results as each game stayed under the total. This match-up has much different dynamics in terms of being a non-conference match-up. 10* OVER the total in San Francisco

Non Conf Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #487 Monday 10* Top Play Washington (+) @ Pittsburgh @ 5 ET - This set up favors Washington in a big way. While they have not played since Thanksgiving and are well rested here, the situation is much different for Pittsburgh. The Steelers were supposed to play on Thanksgiving but the game got postponed multiple times because of covid-19 issues and did not get played until the following Wednesday. That means Washington has a rest edge of nearly a full week in comparison with Pittsburgh's situation. Also, it is simply hard to envision the Steelers finishing the season with an undefeated record. Pittsburgh is now 11-0 on the season and you know that a defeat is imminent. I am not necessarily forecasting that this happens here but I do feel the points will prove to be well worth the taking. 4 of the Steelers last 6 wins have come by a margin of 5 or less points. We're getting a solid 6.5 across the board in this one as of early Monday morning. Many don't realize this but Washington does have a very solid defense. Look for that to be a key in terms of them hanging around in this game. In Washington's last 6 games they had one bad game defensively but allowed an average of only 14.2 points per game in the other 5 games. Washington has scored a solid average of 26.6 points per game its last 5 games and Alex Smith has thrown for 1,030 yards in his 4 games since taking over after the injury to Kyle Allen. Look for the Steelers to drop to 4-9 ATS in their last 13 as a non-divisional home favorite as Pittsburgh is off a divisional win and this is a non-conference match-up on short rest. Also, the Steelers have a tough road trip at an AFC opponent, Buffalo, on deck. 10* WASHINGTON

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #475 Sunday NFL 10* Top Play Denver Broncos (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:20 ET - The Chiefs are over-valued here. What many are looking at here is that the Broncos looked so bad last week against the Saints but, keep in mind, they were without any of their quarterbacks. Those guys are back this week including Drew Lock and I expect a much better performance on offense as a result. The other thing many are looking at here is that the Broncos lost the first meeting to the Chiefs with an ugly final score of 43 to 16. However, Denver actually outgained Kansas City by 125 yards in that game and the difference in the game was the turnovers as the Broncos had 4 of them! Even penalties played a role as Denver had 5 compared to KC having just 1. Each of the last 3 meetings have been blowout wins for the Chiefs but that is helping to give us line value here because the Broncos already proved in the first meeting (despite the final score) that they can compete with Kansas City. The Chiefs have won 6 straight but each of their last 3 wins have come by a margin of 4 or less points. That is part of the reason that KC enters this game on an 0-3 ATS losing streak. As for the Broncos, they are 3-1 ATS in AFC road games this season. The Chiefs have the better offense in this match-ups but the better defense (despite ppg averages) belongs to the Broncos as they are allowing 19.3 yards per game less than Kansas City is. Look for another strong effort from the underdog in this one just like we saw statistically in the first game. The difference in this one is that it equates to a cover. 10* DENVER

Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #471 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Green Bay Packers vs Philadelphia Eagles @ 4:25 ET - The Eagles allowed just 9 points in their game against Dallas when the Cowboys were already without Prescott and did not have Dalton either. In their other 10 games this season Philadelphia has allowed 27 points per game and they are most certainly going to struggle to stop Green Bay here. The Packers have scored an average of 31 points per game their last 6 games and have recorded just one under during this stretch. Look for the over trend to continue here. The Eagles Zach Ertz is a key target for Carson Wentz and he is listed as probable for this one (ankle). The Packers have allowed 29.5 points per game the last two weeks and are in a divisional sandwich here as they just knocked off the Bears and now have the Lions on deck. The Eagles are scoring 21.5 points per game on the season and have not been held under 17 points in any game this season. Given those facts plus the big line on this game - Packers favored by nearly double digits - it comes as no surprise that the over is the play in this one! The Eagles are allowing 27 points per game on the road this season and the Packers are averaging 32 points per game at home this season. Philly won't get many stops in this one but the Pack D has been a little shaky of late and I look for that to continue here as well. 10* OVER the total in Green Bay

Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #463 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints @ 1 ET - I am well aware of the Saints being a different team with Hill at quarterback rather than Brees. So too are the odds makers and yet this game opened up in the upper 40s and has dropped into the mid 40s as of early gameday morning. I am grabbing the line value on the other side of the move as I expect plenty of points in this one after the first meeting between these teams totaled only 33 points. The Falcons are expected to be without RB Todd Gurley in this one but get WR Julio Jones back most likely. This means even more emphasis on the pass for Atlanta in this one and the Saints defense gives up a much higher percentage of yards through the air than on the ground so it will be Falcons QB Matt Ryan that should key a strong performance for Atlanta here. As for the New Orleans offense, they have scored at least 24 points in all their games this season and they enter this one on an 8-game winning streak. Even with Hill at QB the Saints are still a dangerous team with many weapons on offense. Last week they faced a Denver team without any available quarterbacks so they simply played a 'game management' style of game on offense. They will not be afforded that luxury against a Falcons offense led by a veteran QB Ryan. As a result I look for more of a back and forth high-scoring game than most are expecting here. The Falcons have scored an average of 38.5 points per game in their last two home games. 8* OVER the total in Atlanta

*NOTE: I am aware that Lamar Jackson (among others) is now out for this game and Robert Griffin is likely getting the start at QB for the Ravens in this one. I am also aware that this game has been moved yet AGAIN - this time to WEDNESDAY. I still like this play plenty as it is a contrarian play offering huge value. Don't be surprised when the rest of the Baltimore team steps up in this huge rivalry (and revenge) game. Here is the original write-up:* AFC North Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #125 Thursday 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens (+) @ Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:20 ET - Tremendous line value here because the Steelers are undefeated on the season, come into this game on a 7-1 ATS run while the Ravens are on a 1-4 ATS run and off B2B SU losses. Plus Pittsburgh won the first meeting this season and that was at Baltimore. As a result of all those factors, a line that was as low as a -2.5 is now up as high as a -5.5 on the Steelers and I love the value being offered to the road dog in this one. The Ravens lost in a rain storm at New England two weeks ago and then they were looking ahead to this rematch game when they lost in OT versus Tennessee last week. That said, Baltimore is very under-valued right now. Keep in mind, they actually outgained the Steelers by over 200 yards (including a positive edge of 217 on the ground!) when they faced them of the first of this month. The Ravens were simply done in by turnovers in that game and that is what the betting markets seem to be overlooking here. This is a very strong Baltimore team and they are in a preferred role here as well! Why is that? Well, the Ravens have only lost the money ONCE the last DOZEN times they have been a road dog! I know the Steelers are having a great season. Everyone knows that. But their highly unlikely to go 16-0 and certainly this looks like a great spot for an upset win. Either way, grabbing the points should absolutely prove to be the ATS winner. 10* BALTIMORE

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #276 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) vs Seattle Seahawks @ 8:15 ET - Too much value with the home dog to pass up on here. Keep in mind the Eagles are 2-1-1 SU in their last 4 game at home and the only loss came by just two points. The Seahawks are 0-3 SU in their last 3 road games and allowed 104 points in those 3 games. Seattle certainly has a talented offense but the Eagles have allowed a respectable 20.8 points per game in their last 4 home games. Also, Seattle's defense is certainly not a strength and the Eagles offense may surprise some people here. Philly has won only 3 of it's last 8 games but those other 5 games were decided by an average margin of 5.2 points per game. This line is up to nearly a full TD on Seattle and it is simply too much with them on the road for this one. Philadelphia lost in the regular season and in the playoffs last season to the Seahawks and each defeat came by exactly the same score: 17-9. Payback time here. There were very few outright upsets in Sunday's NFL but you know there are shockers nearly every week in NFL and this one has the makings of one. Double revenge spot for the Eagles and note that the Seahawks are off a big divisional revenge win over Arizona. Situational spot favors the home dog. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #273 Sunday 10* Chicago Bears (+) @ Green Bay Packers @ 8:20 ET - This is just too many points. The Bears could actually get a boost with Mitchell Trubisky returning at QB.  The fact is that Nick Foles had not been playing that well. Also, the last 4 meetings between these teams have all been decided by 8 or less points. The Bears have lost 4 straight games but each of the last 3 defeats have been by 7 or less points. The Packers are off a loss at Indianapolis Sunday in overtime while Chicago has the benefit of entering this game off a bye week. The Packers have played 10 games this season and only 4 of those have resulted in a win by a double digit margin. The Bears are still a proud team and they have had extra time to sort some things out courtesy of the bye week. Chicago actually piled up a lot of passing yardage in their two match-ups with Green Bay last season and Trubisky was the QB for both of those. Don't be surprised if they do some damage through the air in this one. They absolutely need a spark and Trubisky could provide it. The Packers are on a 2-4 ATS run and continue to be over-valued in my opinion. The defenses in this match-up are equal or even slightly favor in of the Bears. Of course Green Bay holds the edge on offense but I have a feeling Chicago is going to look much different this week on offense and will do enough damage here to stay inside this inflated number. This is a rivalry game and we're getting plenty of points when you consider that factor as well. This is a huge game for the Bears to try and close the gap on the division lead that Green Bay has. Don't be surprised when they put up a major fight in this one and stay close throughout this game as they seek the big upset win to stay in the division race. 10* CHICAGO

Total of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #267 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Denver Broncos vs New Orleans Saints @ 4:05 ET - As long-time followers know I am a contrarian. That means when situations like this come up you know I'll be taking a look and, if I like the value going against the move, I am all over it. That is most definitely the case here. This total opened up around 45.5 and now is as low as 35.5 points. It is because the Broncos QB situation is a complete mess as all the QBs on their roster are out due to Covid and related contact tracing. That said, they have only a pair of options at QB as Hinton and Freeman would be the guys. Hinton started out as a QB at Wake Forest before converting to RB. Freeman would be more of a wildcat QB. Either way, I still love the value with this total because Denver most definitely will have some trick plays dialed up here and they catch the Saints defense off a dominating divisional win. On the road and after crushing the rival Falcons, don't be surprised if the New Orleans defense is a little flat here. Also, the weather is going to be very nice in Denver with light winds and clear skies and temperatures possibly reaching into the 40s. Keep in mind, long field goals have a better chance in the thin air of Denver when the weather is like this. I just feel this total is way too low. I know the Broncos defense had a strong game last week but Taysom Hill and the Saints offense are a much better combo than the over-rated Dolphins team that Denver just faced. Also, prior to holding Miami to just 13 points, the Broncos allowed at least 26 points in 7 of last 8 games including an average of 36 points in their last 4 games. Keep in mind that is roughly what the total is on this game for BOTH teams combined and I certainly do expect the Broncos to score some points. They will run some trick plays to keep the defense off balance and, again, you don't have to move the ball a whole lot to get into field goal range in Denver! Broncos kicker Brandon McManus is having a fantastic season as he has made 20 of 21 field goals this season including 14 of 15 from 40+ yards (6 of 7 from 50+ yards). The Broncos ran for nearly 200 yards last week and will find a way to move the ball some and get some points in this game but the Saints offense should light them up too. After all, why do you think New Orleans is favored by 15 points here? Yes that has to do with Broncos problems at QB for this one but also this Saints team can put up some points even without Drew Brees under center. Hill was 18 of 23 for 233 yards passing last week plus ran for 2 touchdowns. Considering all the factors as noted above, there is simply phenomenal line value here with this low total. Flat spot for the Saints defense in a divisional sandwich and the Broncos defense feeling a little too good about themselves after dominating Miami last week plus the Denver D has the hated division rival Chiefs on deck. Neither defense will be on top of its game here in my opinion and we have a very low total to work with in nice weather conditions. I will take it. 10* OVER the total in Denver

Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #266 Sunday 8* New York Jets (+) vs Miami Dolphins @ 1 ET - The Dolphins, in my opinion, are one of the most over-rated teams in the league and certainly have been among the most fortunate. With Miami, you have a team who entered last week's action with a 6-3 record on the season and yet they have a yardage differential of NEGATIVE 72.1 yards per game on the season. The Dolphins only average 308.6 yards per game on offense and I feel last week's loss at Denver is a sign of things to come. I know the Jets are 0-10 on the season but they have covered back to back games and 3 of their last 4. They also are a sizable home dog here as they are getting as many as 7.5 in some spots as of early gameday morning. That is significant as New York has covered 13 of the last 17 times they have been a home dog in divisional action. The Jets got embarrassed at Miami in a 24-0 loss last month. They make up for that here and get a little payback. If they fall short of the outright win, they still stay inside the inflated number in this game. 8* NEW YORK JETS

Total Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #123 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Dallas Cowboys versus Washington @ 4:30 ET - I had been watching this total and with the move from upper 40s to mid 40s I am now pulling the trigger on a top play with the over here.  Washington is off a low-scoring win but they were struggling to stop Cincinnati until Burrow got knocked out of that game. The Redskins only ended up scoring 20 points as the Bengals were unable to stay in the game once Burrow got hurt. Washington's offense had been surging though and that resumes here. Since Smith took over at QB the Redskins passing attack is much more dangerous. He is going to take advantage of a Dallas defense that has allowed 32 points per game this season! The Cowboys have allowed 36.8 points per game at home this season. The Dallas offense, with Dalton back under center, is also much more dangerous again and they proved that again last week with a big 31-28 win at Minnesota. The Redskins have some good overall defensive numbers this season but have allowed 28.5 points per game on the road this season. Based on all of the above and the fact that the Cowboys are out for revenge after an embarrassing loss at Washington a month ago, this game is going to have plenty of fireworks! 10* OVER the total in Dallas

Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #122 Thursday 8* Detroit Lions (+) vs Houston Texans @ 12:30 ET - Great situational spot. The Texans are off an upset win over the Patriots and the Lions are off a shutout loss at Carolina. Detroit will respond here at home and Houston, now on the road, will fall flat. Note that the Texans caught New England at the perfect time for an upset as NE had just upset the Ravens at home in a primetime game! Prior to that win the only other wins Houston has the season both came against Jacksonville. Not only are the Jaguars just 1-9 this season but one of those wins came by just 2 points. You can see why I like having the +3 with the home dog Lions in this one. Detroit should get some guys back on offense that missed Sunday's game against the Panthers. Additionally, the Texans have the Colts on deck. That is a huge division rival for Houston and they knocked them out of the playoffs the year before last season. Great situational spot for Detroit in this one and the Lions drop Houston to 3-9 ATS their last 12 games. 8* DETROIT

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #473 Monday NFL 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Los Angeles Rams @ 8:15 ET - The Rams are on a long streak of unders but this looks like the perfect spot for it to snap. Los Angeles is off a big divisional win over Seattle. The Rams also have another divisional game on deck. Could there be a little lacking in defensive intensity here for Los Angeles? At the same time, Tom Brady is fired up for a much better performance in this one. Why? Well he and his Buccaneers teammates were just recently involved in a primetime game hosting the Saints and they were thoroughly embarrassed as they scored just 3 points. It is put up or shut up time in terms of the Bucs proving they can play with the best teams in a primetime match-up and Brady and company will be raring to go here! The Rams defense is strong and so too is that of the Buccaneers but this one is about the situation. I do feel the Tampa Bay defense is susceptible here. TB has allowed an average of 28 points in its last 3 games. Also, at home this season the Bucs have allowed more than 30 points in 2 of 4 games. The over is 3-1 in the Buccaneers last 4 games and when they met the Rams at LA last season the game totaled 95 points! The Rams are averaging 428 yards per game on the road this season and scored at least 30 points in each of their first 3 road games. As for the Buccaneers, before their debacle versus the Saints, they averaged scoring 35.7 points per game in their first 3 home games. With losses in each of their last two road games, the Rams are going to come out aggressive in this one. In other words, they'll be aggressive in their play-calling and I expect plenty of points from the road side in this one as a result. But don't be surprised if Tom Brady has a big game too and this could turn into more of a back and forth shootout then many expect. We'll see some field goals too but we'll see enough touchdowns for this one to get over the total which has come down from its opener - another thing I like here. 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #471 Sunday 8* Kansas City Chiefs (-) @ Las Vegas Raiders @ 8:20 ET - Big time revenge game for the Chiefs. Being able to get them at a -7 has me in play here. Yes I know it is a road game and laying a TD on the road can be a bit dangerous but the Chiefs had dominated in the Raiders for an extended stretch, including 3 most recent wins by an average margin of 27 points per game, before losing earlier season. That loss last month also came at home and there has been some banter about the Raiders enjoying a little extra celebration time after that game at Kansas City. The Chiefs, including head coach Andy Reid, have not forgotten. Now I know the Raiders are looking much improved this season but that upset win for Las Vegas was part of a 1-3 stretch that saw them lose the other 3 games by an average margin of 16 points per game. Since then the Raiders have played better with now 3 straight wins. But they took advantage of facing the Browns in Cleveland in a windstorm with chilly rain and sleet. Then they faced the Chargers and Broncos in back to back weeks and those teams are now a combined 5-13 SU on the season! Las Vegas goes from facing those type of division rivals to not only facing the top team in their division but also the Super Bowl Champions! Not only that but the Chiefs are angry! I just can't see this going well for the Raiders. Keep in mind that is the only loss that KC has this season. Also, they are 4-0 on the road this season and their last 3 road wins have come by an average margin of 16.7 points per game. This one has the makings of a road rout. Lay it! 8* KANSAS CITY

Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #462 Sunday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts vs Green Bay Packers @ 4:25 ET - The Colts have been looking forward to this one. Why? They lost their most recent home game and this will be their first game since then. Indianapolis lost to a strong Ravens team in their most recent game as a host. That defeat came despite a 10-7 lead at the half and despite holding Baltimore to just 266 yards in that game. In other words, don't be fooled by the final score and that is merely serving to give us line value here. Speaking of line value, the Colts did open up at a -3 and now this line has moved so low (-1 -115) in some spots that there is even more value on the money line (-120) in my opinion. This is as of 9 AM ET on Sunday and I am pulling the trigger here on this one. The Packers are getting all the market attention but I feel the better defense prevails here. In Green Bay's only 4 games against stronger teams this season (Minnesota twice and Tampa Bay and New Orleans), the Packers allowed an average of 32.5 points per game! To put that in proper perspective, the Colts have only allowed more than 27 points once this season when they gave up 32 at Cleveland. That was also a turnover-filled loss. With the way Indy QB Philip Rivers has played last 4 games (7 TD and only 2 INT), I look for the Colts to avoid the turnover issues that had plagued them earlier this season. Rivers has averaged 292 yards passing last 4 games and only thrown 1 INT in his last 3 games. Indianapolis was firing on all cylinders in their win at Tennessee and that was a Thursday night game too so they have the rest edge over Green Bay heading into this one as well. I certainly respect Aaron Rodgers and the Packers but feel strongly that the better defense prevails in this game and we don't even have to lay points (thanks to the line move) to have the home team and the better defense and this is when they also lost their most recent home game after starting the season 3-0 at home. Great situation! 10* INDIANAPOLIS

NFC Total of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #469 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Vikings vs Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - The Vikings are off a hard-fought win over the Bears on Monday Night. Even though Minnesota scored only 19 points in that game they did have nearly 400 yards of offense and certainly should have scored more. I know their defense looked good in that one but the Bears have major issues on offense. Also, off of that big divisional win and on a short week, the Vikings defense will not have the same intensity for facing this Cowboys team in a down season. At the same time, Dallas will get a boost on offense with the return of Andy Dalton at QB. Look for the rejuvenated Cowboys, also coming off a bye week, to surprise many by putting up plenty of points in this one. The Vikings have allowed an average of 33.5 points per game at home this season and the over is a perfect 4-0 in their games as a host this season. Speaking of struggling defense, the Cowboys have allowed an average of 32.2 points per game this season and that includes 3 games against NFC East opponents too and everyone knows how bad the NFC East has been this season. In other words, the Dallas defense is simply atrocious and the Vikings, with Kirk Cousins playing well of late, will have a huge game here at home. This total has been kept in the upper 40s because of the Cowboys poor numbers on offense of late. With Dalton coming back, we'll take advantage of the low total as this is an ideal situation for both teams to put up plenty of points. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota 

Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #451 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Cleveland Browns @ 1 ET - In NFL in particular, more than any other sport, I like to fade trap lines. The fact is, this game looks like a trap game doesn't it? The Browns are on a 6-2 SU run and plus are 4-1 SU at home this season and yet they opened up as only a field goal favorite against an Eagles team which has won just 3 of its 9 games. The markets also remember that Philadelphia just played a horrible game at New York against the Giants last week. So, what is there to like about the Eagles here? Well they have performed well as a dog in this situation. Philadelphia is 8-4 ATS the last 12 times they have been a road dog in a non-divisional game. Also, the Eagles did open up this season on an 0-2-1 SU / 0-3 ATS run. But, since September, Philadelphia has not had back to back ATS losses. In other words, off the embarrassing performance against the Giants, don't be surprised if they respond again with a big effort when others least expect it. Again, the Browns are 4-1 SU at home on the season and the overall hotter team. The Eagles are 1-3 SU on the road this season. The books now have this line at just a -2.5 on Cleveland in most shops. That doesn't make sense does it? Exactly! Upset alert! Grab the points! 8* PHILADELPHIA

Total Annihilation - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #321 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals @ 8:20 ET - This total is a big one but don't let that scare you. The weather forecast is typical for Seattle this time of year. Chilly, but not too cold. Rainy, but rather light. The good news is no significant winds expected Thursday evening. In other words, both offenses should be able to have the playbooks fully open for this one. The Cardinals last 3 games have all totaled more than 60 points. Not only that, the Cards have allowed at least 30 in all 3 games plus scored at least 30 in all 3 games! As for the Seahawks, they are off a rare low-scoring loss but that was at LA against a tough Rams defense. Now they are back home and Seattle had scored 27 or more in all of their first 8 games and they reached 31 points or more in all but one of those. The Seahawks are allowing an average of 30.4 points per game. With the Cards surging with momentum after their dramatic last-second win on a Hail Mary pass last week, the offense feels it could do no wrong. But don't be surprised if the Arizona defense continues to struggle here as winning has a way of masking the problems and then teams think things are okay but really this Cards D has issues. The Seahawks will be looking to exploit those again in this revenge game as they did lose at Arizona in their meeting less than month ago. The Cardinals also beat the Seahawks in their last visit to the pacific northwest. That said, you know Russell Wilson and company are out for big-time revenge here but their defense has been a major weakness all season. That is why I expect a ton of points in this one. The over is 3-1 in Seahawks home games this season and the Cardinals recent over trend (3-0) is destined to continue here as well. 10* OVER the total in Seattle

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #276 Monday 10* Top Play Chicago Bears (+) vs Minnesota Vikings @ 8:15 - I'll gladly fade the line move here and go with the home dog in Monday night action in a big divisional match-up. The Vikings are on a bit of a surge now including a recent win over the Packers. However, Minnesota was actually outgained by 76 yards in that game plus they caught Green Bay off back to back road games. It was a bit of a tough spot for the Pack. Still let's give credit where credit is due but that was just one win for Minnesota and they actually lost the stats battle in that game. In terms of the other wins this season, they have come against teams with a combined record of 6-12 SU on the season. Now the Vikings are on the road facing a Bears team that has beaten them 4 straight times. Not only that, Chicago is off a game in which they outgained the Titans by 147 yards but lost on the scoreboard. Keep in mind that game was at Tennessee and they are 6-3 on the season. In terms of other tough match-ups this season the Bears did beat the Buccaneers (now 7-3 on the season) and lost to the Saints (7-2 on the season) on a field goal in OT. The point is that there is solid line value here with a Bears team that has proven it can play with tough teams and this is especially true when they are now catching as much as 3.5 points as a home dog in a divisional match-up against a team whose number they have had. The Vikings have been really hot ATS but the Bears are off an ATS loss and have gone 3-0 ATS this season when in that situation. I also like the Chicago defense (335.1 ypg) much more than the Vikings defense (412.9 ypg) this season. Will be chilly and potentially breezy too in the Windy City tonight and that adds even more value to the defensive-minded home dog in this one. The Vikings running attack has been great this season but the Bears are allowing an average of just 18.5 points per game in regulation time of their home games this season. Also, the Bears just faced a tough running team at Tennessee and they held the Titans to just 92 yards on the ground and only 3 yards per carry. Give me the home dog in this one. 10* CHICAGO

Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #274 Sunday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in New England Patriots vs Baltimore Ravens @ 8:20 ET - We are betting here on the weather too but that should be a key factor. Wind and rain is expected to move into Foxboro just in time for kickoff of this one. Even if we don't get that key factor which helps unders there are a couple of other key factors I like as well. One is the line move as this line has risen from near 40 up to the mid-40s. Another is the game-planning. I know full well that the Ravens solid defense would love nothing more than to march into Foxboro and completely shutdown Bill Belichick's offense which certainly has been having some issues this season. Keep in mind the Ravens are allowing just 17.8 points per game and that ranks #1 in the NFL this season. The Patriots did score big against the Raiders here but in their other 3 home games this season New England has averaged just 13 points per game. The Pats are a smart team of course though and Belichick knows the key to hanging around in this game is limiting the potent Baltimore offense. In last season's match-up the Ravens scored 37 points and Belichick knows that can not happen again. He will try to chew up a lot of clock when his offense is on the field and now lets talk about the Patriots defense. The Pats have given up too much their last few games in terms of points and that included a rough home game versus the 49ers. After getting embarrassed at home in their most recent game here, you know the defense wants to make up for it. In their preceding 3 home games the Patriots allowed an average of only 16.3 points per game. Considering the above as well as the weather conditions I am expecting a bit of a grinder tonight at Gillette Stadium. 10* UNDER the total in New England 

AFC West Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #265 Sunday 10* Top Play Denver Broncos (+) @ Las Vegas Raiders @ 4:05 ET - The Broncos are off a loss at Atlanta but that was a horrible spot for them. They were off miraculous last 2nd home win over the Chargers. That left them flat for the game with the Falcons and especially because it was a divisional sandwich. Yes, after facing the Chargers it was another division rival (Raiders) on deck following the trip to Atlanta. Sure enough Denver fell flat but now they respond here. I feel Las Vegas is a little over-rated right now. The Raiders are such a bad team defensively but caught a break with facing the Chargers last week as Los Angeles still couldn't get over the unreal loss at Denver the prior week. Additionally, the Raiders other recent win was at Cleveland where their defense was helped by playing the game in horrible weather conditions that limited both offenses. Prior to these two wins, Las Vegas had lost 3 of 4 and I feel strongly that they are fortunate to be 5-3 on the season. As for the Broncos, they had won 3 of 4 prior to last week's loss and they are definitely the better defense in this match-up and are flying under the radar a bit right now because they started the season 0-3 whereas the Raiders started the season 2-0. Public perception heavily favors the Raiders in this one and yet the line has moved toward the Broncos in this one. That is sharp money in my opinion and will include some of mine too on Sunday. I am aware of the recent home dominance trend in this series but the Raiders have allowed 33 points per game in their new home and lost plus failed to cover each of their last two games in Vegas. The Broncos were 3-0 ATS on the road this season before last week's loss and again that was a huge flat spot for them. They will not be flat here. 10* DENVER

Early Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #259 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ New York Giants @ 1 ET - The Eagles are off their bye week and healthier than they have been in quite some time. When these teams met in Philly 3 weeks ago the line was very nearly identical to the line on today's game which is a road game for Philadelphia. That would make it seem like there is some kind of mistake here. Of course long-time followers know how I feel about mistakes by the oddsmakers particularly in the NFL. The fact is I have a ton of respect for the oddsmakers and this is no mistake line here. The Eagles are in a great situation here coming off their bye week while the Giants are playing for the 3rd time in 14 days because they also had a Monday night game prior to last week's game which was a hard-fought road win over the Redskins. I do respect the Giants defense but this is also a team that was 1-7 SU on the season prior to last week's win and they finally have their bye next week. Look for it to be a week too late for the Giants as the Eagles pull away for a road rout in this one and defeat the Giants for the 8th straight time in the last 8 meetings. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #122 Thursday 10* Top Play Tennessee Titans (-) vs Indianapolis Colts @ 8:20 ET - Historically I like playing against line moves and have had particular success when a line flips. What I mean by that is when you have a team that was the favorite earlier on actually become the dog as the week goes on. That is the case here with the Titans having been favored by nearly a full field goal earlier this week and yet now on game day morning they are a +1 in some spots. I'll take it! I do respect the Colts and their tough defense but Rivers and Company have struggled against tougher teams this season. Rivers has some very strong positive numbers against bad teams but against the Ravens, Bears, Browns (the only teams currently with a winning record which he has faced) he has put up a total of only 1 TD while also throwing 3 INTs. Note that the Colts are only 2-2 SU on the road this season and they entered this season 7-17 SU on the road the 3 prior seasons combined. Both teams are on a short week of course with this being a Thursday game. However, it is a little more manageable for the Titans because this is the 2nd of back to back home games for them. For the Colts, they are on the road for the 4th time in 6 games and plus they just played a physical Ravens team. This season, teams are 2-5 ATS the week after playing Baltimore and, again, in this case it is a short week too which makes it even tougher for the Colts. I know the box score was an ugly one for Tennessee last week and they were fortunate to beat the Bears but I am sure they were peeking ahead to this huge division rivalry game a bit too. Keep in mind Indy has dominated this series long-term and that includes winning the last two games here by a combined score of 52-34. The Titans are poised to say "enough is enough" and I look for Ryan Tannehill (19-3 TD-INT ratio) to bounce back after a 10 for 21 performance last week. Tennessee simply wasn't good last week but they still improve to 4-1 SU at home on the season and are now 25-12 in home games since the start of the 2016 season. Titans finally get it done against the Colts at home as Tannehill outplays Rivers as the main story line in this one. 10* TENNESSEE

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #475 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Jets vs New England Patriots @ 8:15 ET - As long-time followers know, I am a contrarian. That said, with the Patriots having averaged scoring only 12 points per game their last 4 games and the Jets having scored an average of only 7 points per game their last 4 games, there was only one way I am looking in this game and that is the over. But why? Of course there has to be good reasoning and in this case there is sure is. For one thing we are getting incredible line value with such a low total posted on this game. But in terms of how it will play out Cam Newton was better last week for the Patriots and I expect him to have a strong game here against a Jets defense that has allowed an average of 30 points per game this season. Also, New York's offense might surprise some people tonight. I am expecting both Breshad Perriman and Jamison Crowder back for the Jets tonight. That is a couple of key talents back at WR for New York tonight and that gives the New York QB some talented targets in the passing game. Now I know what you're saying. Sam Darnold is likely out for this game. No offense to him but he has not been healthy and hasn't looked right. The Jets offense will be in much better hands tonight with the veteran Joe Flacco back there and he'll be attacking a Patriots defense which has allowed an average of 28 points in 3 road games this season. Based on the spread on this game as well as the total the betting markets are calling for a 26-16 type NE win. I am telling you I expect both teams to exceed those respective point totals and that is why I am going big on the over in this game. Yes it is a contrarian play per se but being contrarian (especially in the NFL) is how I have lasted successfully in this industry for two decades. You have to pick your spots to be a contrarian but this is one of those spots and, almost forgot to mention this but, the weather is certainly going to be spectacular this evening in East Rutherford, NJ for this one. Light winds, no precipitation, and very mild temperatures. 10* OVER the total in New York Jets 

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #473 Sunday 8* New Orleans Saints (+) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:20 ET - the saints have won 4 straight games, i fully realize this is a revenge game for tampa bay but the buccaneers last 4 games have featured a loss and a 2-point win, there is great value with having the points on your side in this match-up, the bucs defense grabs all the headlines but the saints defense is better than you think, take a look at the yardage stats rather than just point totals to get the full read on a defense, in this case the buccaneers are allowing 299.5 yards per game while the saints are allowing 328.4 yards per game, as you can see this is only a small variance, i also like the fact that new orleans should have wr michael thomas back for this game, overall the saints are getting healthier than they have been and that is another reason i expect them to improve to 5-0 su/ats L5 meetings with TB, new orleans is 7-1 ats the last 8 times they have been a dog and in this match-up they are catching as much as 4.5 points as of early gameday morning, the bucs are off a monday night game and that was their 2nd straight road game and this game will be their 9th straight this season without a bye, new orleans a little fresher courtesy of a bye week just a couple weeks ago, the saints are a 1/2 game back in the standings and this is their chance to leap frog tampa bay for 1st place in the division, look for them to make the most of the opportunity, if they do fall short i expect it to be by 4 or less points, grab the dog, 8* NEW ORLEANS

Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #472 Sunday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals (-) vs Miami Dolphins @ 4:25 ET - the dolphins are over-rated in my opinion and we're catching them at the perfect time to fade them, miami is coming off a big over the rams even though they were outgained by 326 yards and had 23 less first downs, of course this is leading to line value this week because it is also noteworthy that tagovailoa will be making his first road start, arizona has a big edge here with coming off their bye week and that was preceded by 3 straight wins both SU and ATS, if the dolphins were having a poor season the cardinals might overlook them, the fact that miami has a winning record and just beat the LA rams makes sure of the fact that the cardinals will have proper focus here, also another AFC team is on deck for arizona so there is no lookahead here, the dolphins are on a 5-10 ats run as a road dog in a non-divisional game while the cardinals are 4-1 ats their last 5 games against afc competition, statistically the cards have one of the best offenses in the league while the dolphins have one of the worst and i just don't see miami being able to keep up in this one as the cardinals get after tagovailoa early and often and disrupt the dolphins entire game plan  10* ARIZONA

NFC North Total of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #457 Sunday 10* OVER the total in Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions @ 1:00 ET - This total plummeted because of Matthew Stafford, Lions QB, having been exposed to someone with covid on Monday. However, he is cleared to play as long as his final test this morning comes out okay and even if he didn't I would not be surprised to see back-up quarterback Chase Daniel enjoy success against this struggling Vikings defense! Minnesota has allowed 38 points per game in its 3 home games this season. The good news for Vikings fans is the Lions defense is also very bad and Minnesota had their run game going against Green Bay last week and, of course, once the run is established that makes the passing game even that much easier to get going! Detroit has allowed 29.4 points per game this season. Minnesota has scored 27.6 points per game their last 5 games. The Lions are averaging 25.3 points per game on the season. Look for the over to remain perfect in Vikings home games this season - it is already 3-0 on the year and all 3 flew over by a double digit margin! Also, I am aware of Kenny Golladay being out for this game but the Lions have plenty of other weapons on offense and this is particularly true with the current bad shape that the Vikings defense is in. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota 

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #302 Thursday 10* Top Play San Francisco 49ers (+) vs Green Bay Packers @ 8:20 ET - I know the 49ers have injury issues at QB and TE. Also, I am well aware this is a revenge game for the Packers since they lost the NFC Championship here last season. However, this line is getting out of hand. Everyone has been pounding Green Bay and the line is now a 6. When you factor in home field that line is basically saying that the Packers are 9 points better than the 49ers on a neutral field. I strongly disagree. Yes, San Francisco has some injury issues but QB Nick Mullens has gained some valuable experience under center and he wants to make up for his rough effort in primetime when he faced the Eagles not too long ago in a primetime match-up. I also like the fact that the home dog Niners knocked off the Rams in a convincing win as an underdog host just a few weeks ago. San Francisco is a scrappy team and they were 4-3 before the loss at Seattle last week and 2 of those 3 losses were by 5 or less points. Taking a look at Green Bay, they are 5-2 SU on the season but 4 of their 5 wins have come against teams with a combined record of 7-22 SU on the season. I am not totally sold on this Packers team just yet. Remember that they got embarrassed by the Buccaneers this season plus are coming off a loss to the Vikings where they couldn't stop their running back. This was similar to last year's NFC Championship game in which Green Bay couldn't stop Mostert. All the talk in this game is about Garoppolo and Kittle being out for the Niners offense but their defense is better than people realize and I am not totally sold on this Packers team. Look for the 49ers to keep this game very close and possibly even spring the upset as I am expecting Mullens to have a solid game. He has a lot of confidence after playing well when he came in at Seattle Sunday. 10* SAN FRANCISCO