Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #274 Monday 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:15 ET - Of course this goes without saying, and is evident with the big point spread posted on this game, but the Buccaneers are the much better team in this match-up. However, that certainly does not mean they are worthy of laying nearly two touchdowns on the road against a Giants team that is a little better than people give them credit for. In terms of situational value, this is a great spot for New York as they catch Tom Brady and the Buccaneers right before a huge Sunday night game against Drew Brees and the Saints. Not only is that a divisional game for TB, it is also a revenge game as the Bucs lost their season opener at New Orleans this year. Based on records entering this weekend's action, other than the Packers, none of the 6 wins the Buccaneers had were against teams with a winning record. Now they face a Giants team with a poor record too but that's not my point. The point I am making is that be careful giving too much credit to TB based on their early season schedule and, keep in mind, of the 3 tougher teams they placed they won only 1 of those games. They beat GB and lost to NO and the Bears. In Monday's match-up the Giants are going to be tough to put away. They are a respectable defense that has allowed 26 points or less in 5 of 7 games. In terms of putting points on the board, New York has been better in their last 3 games as they have averaged scoring 25 points per game. As good as the Bucs defense is, this is a Tampa Bay team that has allowed at least 20 points in 3 of their last 4 games. I see TB winning this game but I don't see the victory coming by a double digit margin and those numbers I just mentioned support my theory on this one. Additionally, the Giants are well-rested coming off a Thursday night game. They blew a late lead in that one while the Buccaneers were up by just a single score against Vegas last week before they pulled away in convincing fashion late. I like the fact too that QB Daniel Jones led New York to the comeback win (22-3 2nd half) in their win at Tampa Bay last season. The Bucs are better this season but the Giants again won't go away without a fight here and that gets them the cover in this one in my opinion. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #272 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - It might seem difficult to lay double digits with a 2-4-1 Eagles team but I can quickly ease your mind about that for sure. The Cowboys are 0-7 ATS this season. Yes indeed Dallas has not covered a single game this season and I certainly don't see that changing this week. I don't expect to see Andy Dalton here as he is in concussion protocol. That means Ben DiNucci is expected to get the start here. He'll be protected by a makeshift offensive line that is the worst in the NFL this season. He'll be handing off the ball to Ezekiel Elliott and he is having a rough season with as many fumbles as rushing touchdowns. Also, the Eagles have one of the top defensive lines in football. This will create havoc for the Cowboys as plays will get blown up at the line of scrimmage. Dallas has scored an average of 6.5 points per game the past two weeks! Each of the Cowboys last 3 losses have come by 11 points or more - average margin of defeat was 20.3 points per game. The Eagles will show no mercy here and are getting a little healthier on the offensive side of the ball. This is a big rivalry for Philly and they are at home and have a bye week on deck. Remember the Eagles blew a 17-0 lead against the Redskins in the very first game of this season. In other words, they already know no lead is safe no matter the situation. Carson Wentz has been playing much better in recent weeks and leading this team to victories. They are facing a Dallas defense that ranks among the worst in the NFL and now has even started unloading veterans to get younger guys more playing time. Waving the white flag? No it is still too early for that but the fact is that this Cowboys team is in disarray and they are in big trouble in this one. The Eagles have scored an average of 26 points per game their last 4 games and that included 2 wins and note that the 2 losses were against 2 of the best teams in the NFL - Steelers and Ravens. The Cowboys last 3 games included games against the Giants and Redskins and yet they still allowed an average of 32 points per game during this 3-game stretch. I just don't see the Dallas offense doing much and Wentz has averaged 277 yards passing the last 3 weeks and thrown for 6 TDs and run for 2 more. Considering all factors, this one turns into an absolute rout because there is no love lost between these two rivals and the Eagles still remember the Redskins loss in a key week 1 divisional battle. Philly won't take their foot off the gas here and the Cowboys defense is one of the worst units in the league. 8* PHILADELPHIA

NFC West Total of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #269 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers @ 4:25 ET - I am envisioning a shootout here. Yes I am aware of the most recent injury news (both good and bad) for each team. That said, the Niners Jimmy Garoppolo is set to have a huge day against the league's worst secondary in Seattle. As for the Seahawks Russell Wilson, he'll pick apart a Niners secondary that has been impacted by injuries. Yes, the 49ers had a great performance on defense last week but that is because they faced Patriots QB Cam Newton whom, in my opinion, likely spends more time looking at fashion choices and what he'll wear to the next game than actually preparing for opposing defenses. All kidding aside, Newton does indeed have a "few screws loose upstairs" in my opinion. That said, now the Niners face the best offense in the league and this one has all the right ingredients to be very high-scoring. The injury issues have actually helped us because it has kept this total from going higher (at least so far). The fact is I just don't see many stops here. The #1 offense gets it done at home but a surging Niners team with Jimmy G at the helm can also give the league's worst defense problems too. If you like seeing the skills of punters don't watch this game! I expect very few punts! The 49ers seem well past their 2-game slump against the Eagles and Dolphins. Keep in mind, prior to that they had averaged 29 points per game their 1st 3 games this season. They also enter this game averaging 28.5 points their last two games. As for the Seahawks, they are averaging 34 points per game on the season! They are also allowing 29 points per game! I know this is a big divisional showdown but it also sets up well to be a shootout! Beautiful weather in Seattle today too. 10* OVER the total in Seattle

Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation#253 Sunday 8* Minnesota Vikings (+) @ Green Bay Packers @ 1 ET - Why is it that the Packers did not make it to the Super Bowl last season? That question could generate a number of responses but, technically, there is just one reason. Green Bay lost to the 49'ers in the NFC Championship Game. Today is Sunday. 4 days from now the Packers are at San Francisco for a Thursday Night game. This is clearly a lookahead situation. I know what you're thinking...that the Vikings are a division rival, etc. Valid thinking for sure but GB already beat Minnesota this season and the Vikes carry an ugly 1-5 record into this game. Green Bay might subconsciously be thinking this will be an easy game. That is the thinking that will proven wrong and the Pack get in trouble here as they already have one eye on a revenge game at SF coming up! That wasn't just any loss folks...that was a loss that kept Aaron Rodgers and company from playing in the Super Bowl! In terms of additional value here, the Vikings are off a bye week and that is a chance to hit the reset button on what has been a tough start to the season. Additionally, the Vikings last 4 games resulted in just 1 SU win but 2 of the 3 losses came by just a single point! That means if you had Minnesota +6.5 in each of their last 4 games you would have cashed 3 of your 4 tickets. Indeed the Vikings do come into this game on a 3-1 ATS run. The only ugly loss was when the Vikes faced a very determined Falcons team right after they had fired their coach. The last two meetings between these teams at Lambeau Field resulted in a 5 points Vikes loss and a tie game. This one will be another tight game the way I see it and, if the Vikings don't win outright, they'll lose by a very small margin in my opinion. 8* MINNESOTA

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #101 Thursday 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons (+) @ Carolina Panthers @ 8:20 ET - I know it may seem tough to trust the Falcons here after they found a way to lose another late lead but, keep in mind, Atlanta has been playing better since the coaching change. There is a different atmosphere around this team now and the resilience will shine through in this divisional game which is the perfect opportunity for a bounce back. Matt Ryan has been piling up yardage for the Falcons and, though Carolina got the win in the first meeting, they'll struggled to stop a rejuvenated Atlanta team in the rematch. The fact this game is at Carolina just means line value for us because we get a few points to work with too. Also, though the Panthers are off a cover against the Saints last week, they were heavily outgained including by over 100 yards on the ground. Managing to get a cover when you lose the yardage battle on the ground by more than the century mark in an NFL game is nearly a miracle. That said, there will be no miracles here and I expect the better offense (Falcons) in this match-up to rule the day. Keep in mind, Atlanta blew a huge lead against the Cowboys and the Bears to lose those games but that was then and this now. Combining those tight losses with the loss to the Lions this past Sunday however, the point is that 3 of their 6 losses have come by an average margin of just 2 points. In other words, great value with grabbing the points here although I am expecting an upset win for the Falcons in this one. 10* ATLANTA

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #476 Monday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams (-) vs Chicago Bears @ 8:15 ET - The Rams are in the -250 range on the money line. What does that have to do with laying the points here? Well, as you can see from that line, Los Angeles has a high probability of winning this game and the fact is I have had my eyes on this one ever since successfully using the 49ers against LA last week. The Rams are in full-on bounce back mode here and now the point spread has dropped to as low as a -5.5 in some spots as of early game day morning. Now, about that all-important cover...if you are confident the Rams will win you can also be quite confident of the cover. Why is that? Well of the last 12 wins that LA has had, only one (the 3-point win over the Cowboys in Week 1) has come by less than 7 points. Indeed, 92% of the Rams last dozen wins have come by a margin of at least a TD. I fully expect this one will too. I know the Bears have a solid defense but so too does Los Angeles. Also, I really like the LA offense to have a breakout game here. The other two times this season when the Rams were off a game in which they scored 20 points or less they have responded by averaging 33.5 points in their next game. Look for another response here after scoring just 16 last week against Chicago. The Rams have not yet had a breakout game at home as they are averaging just 18.5 points per game at home this season. Look for this to be the game for Jared Goff and company as they are very fired up after last week's poor effort. As for the Bears, I know they have made some positive strides since Nick Foles took over but their only two tough opponents this season both were faced in Chicago. In those two games - versus Indy and TB - the Bears averaged just 15.5 points per game and that included 8 points on a late TD and 2 point conversion against the Colts with under a minute to go in a game that was really all but already decided at that point. In other words, I am not impressed with this Bears offense and now this is the first time this season they are facing a tough team on the road. They won't be able to keep up with the Rams as I expect LA to have a huge game offensively. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #468 Sunday 8* Arizona Cardinals (+) vs Seattle Seahawks @ 8:20 ET - Every week I always am on the lookout for what I would call "strange lines" in NFL. They are games I want to investigate because if it is something the public is likely to line up on then of course I want to be on the other side of it. This game is a perfect example. Seattle is off their bye week, they are 5-0 on the season, and they have been available as low as a -3 in a game against a Cardinals team that is certainly not known as a powerhouse and already has 2 losses on the season. Who do you think the public is going to take in this game? Exactly! So in typical contrarian fashion I am on the other side but, also in typical fashion, of course it is not without good reason or at least what I certainly feel very strongly is good reason. Yes the Cardinals are off a huge win on MNF over the Cowboys but if you think they are going to fall flat against an NFC West rival that they are chasing for the top spot in the division, there is just no way! Adding to some additional value for the home dog here is the fact that they have a bye week on deck. The Cardinals will absolutely go all out in this one and I expect them to win outright but certainly am happy to grab the 3.5 points being offered. The Seahawks have the worst defense in the NFL so far this season. Seattle is allowing 471.2 yards per game which is 125 ypg more than the Cardinals are giving up. Seahawks must have faced a powerhouse schedule, right? Nope! Even though one could argue their schedule has been tougher than the Cards, the fact is the teams Seattle has faced have a combined record of 9-20 this season and none of them have a winning record. The Cardinals dominated the Seahawks on the scoreboard AND in the stats when these teams last met and that was in Seattle. In the meeting that preceded that, the Seahawks beat the Cards by 17 points here in Arizona but the yardage edge was only 21 for Seattle and now it is payback time. This Cardinals team is better than people realize and the Seahawks defense is going to struggle badly to try and contain elusive QB Kyler Murray. Look for a home dog outright upset as another unbeaten falls this week but there is no way I am passing up on grabbing the 3.5 points here. 8* ARIZONA

Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #479 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Chargers vs Jacksonville Jaguars @ 4:25 ET - The Chargers are very close to the bottom ten of the league for team defense as they are allowing 380.6 ypg. The Jaguars are near to the very bottom of the league as they are allowing 414.5 ypg. This one should see plenty of offense as a result. LA is coming off a bye week and healthier then they have been all season. I expect a big game from QB Justin Hebert here. As for the Jaguars QB Gardner Minshew, I know his season numbers are not so impressive but now he faces a team that has one of the worst pass defenses in the league so far this season and he'll take advantage. This game is off the radar of most people because neither one of these teams is trending to the over or the under or this season. However, that is just how I like it as that preserves the line value for us in being able to take the over in a game involving two defenses that have struggled and we'll also have very nice weather conditions for this one. 10* OVER the total in LA Chargers

Game of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #474 Sunday 10* Top Play Las Vegas Raiders (+) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 4:05 ET - First off, many of you know that I live in Vegas but want everyone to know I am not a Raiders fan. Not saying I am against Las Vegas, I wish them well and hope the franchise is very successful here just like the Golden Knights have been in hockey - also not a fan of that team by the way. So, the point is, there is no favoritism involved with me making this big play. This is purely based on situational value and waiting has paid off in terms of getting a better number too. As of gameday morning, this line is up to a 5.5 as the big news this week in Vegas was the covid testing and impact on the offensive line for the Raiders in this one. However, let me give you the bigger news on this one! Las Vegas enters this game off a bye week while Tampa Bay enters this game off a huge win over previously unbeaten Green Bay. Now many of you will say the home team here is also off a huge win since they won at Kansas City two weeks ago. However, the key here is the bye week and also the fact that the Raiders lost at home in their game that preceded the upset of the Chiefs. Now the even bigger news flash here that seems to be forgotten by some is Las Vegas head coach Jon Gruden has it out for the Buccaneers in this one. Why? He was fired by them after 7 seasons about a decade ago. This Raiders gig is his first foray back into head coaching since that happened. You think he might have a little extra motivation for this game? Ya think?!?! Indeed he has had two weeks to prepare for this one and Las Vegas will be ready here and I feel the covid situation will prove to not be a big deal at all and the O-line will be just fine in this game. Don't be surprised if the Bucs are a little flat after that fantastic effort against the Packers. As for the Raiders, there will be nothing flat about their game on Sunday. They will come ready to play and I expect a huge game for them. Yes the Buccaneers have the better defense in this match-up but they will struggle to come anywhere close to matching the effort they just gave against Green Bay last week. Couple that with the fact that the Raiders offense (399.4 ypg) ranks ahead of the Bucs offense (358.2 ypg) and you have a fantastic home dog situation here. With Tom Brady in Tampa they will continue to be overvalued by the betting markets. We take advantage. 10* LAS VEGAS

Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #477 Sunday 8* Pittsburgh Steelers (+) @ Tennessee Titans @ 1 ET - In a match-up of unbeatens I am happy to take the better defense in this one. I know Tennessee has made a lot of noise in their past two games with huge offensive performances but the Titans defense (409.8 ypg) ranks among the worst in the league. The Steelers defense (285.2 ypg) ranks among the best in the league. Yes, Pittsburgh has a huge game with the Ravens on deck but there is no way they are looking past an undefeated Titans team. This is particularly true when they themselves are also undefeated and certainly looking to stay that way. I also like the fact that all of the Steelers wins have come by 5 or more points while Tennessee's first 3 wins all came by 3 or less points and then last week's win was in OT. Also, I am sure some Titans fans sent thank you letters to Texans interim head coach Romeo Crennel for his idiotic decision to go for 2 late in the 4th quarter instead of being a normal coach and being happy to kick the extra point and have an 8-point lead. That is the key reason the Titans are still undefeated and, with all their close games this season, it is only a matter a time of that "playing with fire" gets Tennessee burned. I expect them to feel that "burn" this week. 8* PITTSBURGH

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #304 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs New York Giants @ 8:20 ET - This line made a major move on Monday around 2 PM ET (11 AM PT here in Vegas where I live). I watched the screens light up as the Eagles line got pounded down. The thinking process here by the betting markets must be that the odds makers have no idea about injury situations and don't watch the games. They saw Miles Sanders get hurt and they were aware of the Zach Ertz injury. Yet they still posted this line near a -7 which is where it belongs. But now due to false market perception this line has been driven down to a 3.5 which is basically saying the Giants and the Eagles are equal teams if they played on a neutral field. I vehemently disagree with this assessment. Note that as good as Zach Ertz is, the fact remains he has averaged only 16 receiving yards per game the past 3 weeks! He has NOT been a huge component of the Eagles offense in recent weeks. Also there is a decent chance the Eagles will get WR DeSean Jackson back for this one plus Alshon Jeffery even has an outside shot at playing too. Certainly the Sanders injury hurts but the Eagles have some other running backs they will make use of here. Their comeback against the Ravens (would have tied it if not for a late failed two point conversion) did not feature Sanders or Ertz. After going toe to toe with the Ravens now the Eagles take on a Giants team that barely hung on for their first win of the season. New York had started the year 0-5 and other than one 34 point outburst against a horrific Cowboys defense, the Giants averaged only 13.4 points per game in their other 5 games and did not top 20 in any of those games. Conversely, the Eagles have scored at least 23 points in 4 straight games and have averaged 26 points during this stretch. Again, Ertz has played little role in this too. Just look at his stats if you don't believe me. The Eagles have swept the Giants each of the past two seasons and the average margin of victory in those 4 games is 12 points. Eagles hungry for a win, Giants just got their first, Wentz starting to look better (even against powerful Ravens) and Jones for the Giants is still a very young QB trying to find his way at the NFL level. Jones now faces a dangerous defense in terms of putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks with a powerful defensive line. Grab the line value with the small home favorite that is very hungry to get back into the win column and will take care of business against a division rival once again here just like the other recent meetings. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #275 Monday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:15 ET - The line on this game prior to the Dak Prescott injury was Dallas -3 and it was moving toward -3.5 for sure. But then he got hurt on Sunday so the game came off the board and when it went back up it was Arizona -3. Now all week long I have patiently waited for this one as I knew "America's Team" would get their love from the betting markets and that we'd eventually get the Cardinals as a dog in this one. Sure enough the line has swung back almost to where it was with Prescott at the controls! We are now seeing 1.5 show up this morning on the Cowboys and, in all likelihood it could even climb higher. However, this is the time of day I post my picks here generally so, for me, it is now "go time" with this one. Keep in mind, the last thing the Cowboys could afford was an injury to Prescott. Why? Well because their offense is the only thing they have going for them. This team's defense is atrocious and now led by Andy Dalton at QB. He had some good years in Cincinnati for sure. The key word there however is "had". Note that in Dalton's final season there he threw nearly as many INT's as TD's and had his lowest completion percentage since his rookie season and had a career high in fumbles. Why do you think the Bengals were ready to move on? And, keep in mind, this is the Bengals we're talking about folks! The Cardinals defense will have their ears pinned back for this one (on the attack like angry dogs) and they are allowing only 20.4 points per game. As for the Cowboys defense, they have allowed 40 points per game their last 4 games and have allowed at least 34 points in all 4 of their games since a season opening 20-17 loss to the Rams. Dallas barely held on to beat the Giants last week and their only win so far this season was their miraculous 1 point win against Atlanta earlier this season. Keep in mind, Atlanta and the Giants were a combined 0-10 entering this weekend's action and the Cowboys defense allowed 73 points in those 2 victories. Unless Dallas can pull a rabbit out of the hat on defense I see them struggling against a Kliff Klingsbury coached team with Kyler Murray at QB. Both those guys have Texas roots and Murray has fond memories of games played here in Big D. In fact, Murray is 6-0 all time in games played here including 3 state championships here when he played for Allen High School and also he won a Big 12 title game here too when he was with OU. I would take Murray over Dalton all day every day and it is hard to dispute the importance of the QB in this day and age of pass-happy pro football! Plus he is a dangerous runner too. Overall the Cardinals are the better team and this Dallas defense can't stop anyone and that will end up putting a lot of pressure on Dalton in this one to try and trade scores with the Cards. I don't see that happening. 10* ARIZONA

Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #278 Monday 8* Buffalo Bills (+) vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 5 ET - The Chiefs are off a loss so the whole world seems to be lining up on them here and ignoring some key facts. One, the Bills are a pretty good team in their own right. Two, this game is being played at Buffalo. Three, the Bills are also off a loss and they are angry about it as it was an ugly one at Tennessee. When you consider these factors above it simply makes no sense for this line to have gone from a field goal all the way up to nearly a full six points as of game day morning. Just like we saw last night with the 49ers standing up strong as a home dog after an embarrassing loss, I am confident we will see the same thing tonight with the Bills. One of the Chiefs 4 wins came by 3 points in OT. For the Bills, they were a perfect 4-0 SU their first 4 games and I just don't see them getting blown out here. If they lose I am projecting it to be by 4 or less points but an outright home dog upset like we saw last night with San Francisco would not surprise me either. This Bills team is better than people realize. Yes, Kansas City is a very good team but this is not a fun place to play and the temperature will be holding in the 40s with a good chance of rain throughout this one. All of that favors the home dog as well. 8* BUFFALO

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #274 Sunday 8* San Francisco 49ers (+) vs Los Angeles Rams @ 8:20 ET - As long-time followers know I am a contrarian by nature. That said, it should come as no surprised that I am backing the 2-3 Niners over the 4-1 Rams in this one. In a primetime game especially (when the lights are shining and they know the entire NFL world is watching them), a home dog is going to bring its best effort. This is made even more true when that home dog is facing a hated division rival. The 49ers did sweep the Rams last year so I am well aware of the fact that this is a revenge game for Los Angeles. However, that sweep last year also means that the 49'ers have had the Rams number so to speak too! Note also that all 4 of Los Angeles' wins have come against the NFC East or, as it is more appropriately known, the NFC Least! The combined record of those 4 teams is 4-15-1. The only time Los Angeles faced a tough team was when the Rams faced the Bills in Buffalo. Though they rallied in that game they actually were down huge in that game before the late rally. I like the Niners defense here and also am expecting a huge bounce back from the offense. They'll absolutely be ready here with some positive adjustments after the horrific effort against the Dolphins last week. The 49ers are on a 5-1 ATS run as an underdog and get the cash again here. 8* SAN FRANCISCO

Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #272 Sunday 8* Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+) vs Green Bay Packers @ 4:25 ET - two weeks ago when this line first came out the bucs were favored by 2.5 points...now the bucs are a 1 point home dog in this match-up...the line made a move after the bucs lost last week to the bears but, keep in mind, tampa bay outgained chicago by nearly 100 yards in that game...in comparing the buccaneers and packers, the bucs have been the more impressive defense early this season...i know rodgers has been the much better qb for green bay than brady has for tampa bay...however, i would not be surprised to see brady come up with a huge performance here...factor that in along with the better defense and home field edge and i feel we have great line value here...yes the packers are undefeated on the season and the tampa bay already has two losses but, with my contrarian way of thinking, that is part of the reason i like this play even more...keep in mind, green bay is 4-0 this season but the teams they have beaten have a combined record of 5-14...the only team with a winning record that the packers have beaten is the saints (currently 3-2 on the season) and they appear to be really down a few notches this season...i am not totally knocking the packers here but just saying this was a very intriguing line to me and, with the movement and the current market perception that is anti-tampa bay and pro-green bay i absolutely love this spot for a home win...8* TAMPA BAY

AFC South Total of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #257 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans @ 1 ET - The Titans have scored an average of 35.3 ppg their last 3 games. The Texans are a new team after firing coach Bill O'Brien and with Romeo Crennel taking over head coaching duties on an interim basis. Even though they threw 2 picks in last week's win (their first victory of the season) the Texans still managed 30 points and piled up a ton of yardage. However, this is still a Houston team that allowed an average of 31.5 ppg their first 4 games of the season and I expect them to struggle to contain a potent Tennessee offense on the road. The issue for the Titans (and what is helping gives us value here) is that their defense is worse than what has reflected on the scoreboard. They have benefited based on some key turnovers but that stuff usually doesn't go on forever and, now, facing a newly-inspired Texans team is likely to cause issues for the D of Tennessee. The Titans are allowing 261 passing yards per game and Houston is throwing for 275 passing yards per game. This total opened up in the mid-50s for a reason and I love the fact that it has dropped to the low 50s and feel we have great line value here with this number lower than it should be. Both teams should have no problem moving the ball up and down the field here. Yes, the Texans held the Jags to only 14 points last week but they allowed nearly 300 yards passing! Houston was helped by 2 Jacksonville fumbles. The Titans will score plenty here but will struggle to slow down the Texans. 10* OVER the total in Tennessee

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #482 Tuesday 10* Top Play Tennessee Titans (+) vs Buffalo Bills @ 7 ET - Long-time followers know I am a contrarian across all sports but this is particularly true in the NFL. That said, I love taking the Titans in a spot like this. They are the ones that forced a cancellation of last week's game due to Covid-19. They are the ones who are 0-3 ATS on the season. Yes, I'll take Tennessee to finally get the cash at the window this week. Even though they are 3-0 SU on the season they have been a favorite all 3 weeks and have failed to cover each game. The Titans 3 games have all been decided by 3 or less points. Now that they are a dog that makes them well worth the investment here. This is especially true with the Bills moving up to a 3.5 point favorite. I know QB Josh Allen has been huge for Buffalo this season but you can bet the Titans are drawing motivation from that and also the fact that they are undefeated and at home and yet they are the underdog here! Tennessee will absolutely "bring it" in this primetime affair and, keep in mind, the Bills have the super bowl champion Chiefs up next on Sunday while the Titans have the 1-4 Texans next up on the docket. Grab the value with the home dog in this one. 10* TENNESSEE

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #477 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Chargers @ 8:15 ET - I don't trust either defense here and expect both offenses to be able to move the ball quite well in this one. The Chargers defense ranks poorly in terms of defending the pass and that was on full display when they blew a 24-7 lead and lost to Tom Brady and the Buccaneers in their most recent game. Of course Drew Brees arm is not nearly what it used to be but he still helped lead the Saints to an average of 30.8 points per game their first 4 games this season. That ranks among the best in the NFL. Though the Chargers have not scored as well, their offense actually entered this week's action ranked in the top ten in the NFL based on yardage per game. That said, Los Angeles may not have trouble finding the end zone against this New Orleans team. The Saints are allowing an average of 30.8 points per game on the year. Chargers rookie QB Hebert threw for nearly 300 yards last week and 3 touchdowns! We have finally see the over trend in primetime games slow down recently but Saints games are 4-0 to the over this season and, with this total dropping some from an opener of 52 down to 50 we have extra value here. That has me going to my highest level in terms of the rating on this one. 10* OVER the total in New Orleans

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #475 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Seattle Seahawks vs Minnesota Vikings @ 8:20 ET - The Vikings defense has had a major dropoff this season. They have one of the worst pass defenses in the league and now take on a Seahawks passing attack that is one of the best in the league. At the same time, the Minnesota offense will be able to take advantage of facing a Seattle defense that has struggled badly this season. This total opened up in the upper 50s but has dropped to a 56 as of game day morning and now we're getting to the value area with this total. Yes I know it is still a big total but it is absolutely justified as I just can not foresee many defensive stops in this game. The Vikes have scored 30 or more points in 3 of their 4 games this season while the Hawks have scored at least 31 points in all 4 of their games. Yes we could (should!) see each team get to the 30 point mark in this one and, either way, I am expecting this game to get into the 60s. The Seahawks are allowing an average of 27 points per game this season and are a 7 point favorite in this one. That puts this game potentially into the 34-27 range and, keep in mind, Minnesota allowed 34 points per game in their first 3 games this season. Even against a winless Texans team last week the Vikings allowed 23 points plus nearly 300 passing yards! Seahawks QB Russell Wilson should have another huge day here but his teammates on defense will again be on their heels all game long in another wild one. 8* OVER the total in Seattle

Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #473 Sunday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts (+) @ Cleveland Browns @ 4:25 ET - Long-time followers know I love to fade line moves in the NFL when the situation is right and that is the case here in my opinion. The Colts were as high as a 3 point favorite in this game and now are a 1 point underdog as of early game day morning. While Cleveland is an improved team this is a horrible spot for them. They are off a road dog upset win at Dallas where they blew a huge lead and then had to hang for dear life against the Cowboys. Now they are back home but have a huge divisional game on deck with Pittsburgh. Yes, the Steelers team that is undefeated and in first place in their division. In looking at this match-up, yes the Colts are also off a road win last week but it was an expected road win. Indianapolis was the favorite and the Bears scored very late in that game. In other words, the Colts not only won the game, they dominated as it nearly ended a 19-3 final. Chicago's TD and 2 point conversion came very very late. The key to the value in this match-up is that the Browns caught a lot of eyes with their win at Dallas last week but the Cowboys defense is atrocious this season. Now Cleveland goes from facing the league's worst defense to facing the #1 defense in the league. The Colts have simply dominated on that side of the ball. Indy has allowed an average of 9.7 points per game the last 3 weeks. The Browns have allowed an average of 31.5 points per game this season. With Cleveland's big game on deck against division leading Pittsburgh, this is the ideal spot to fade them and back the Colts as they look to win for the 9th time in the last 10 meetings between these teams. The Browns had covered just 4 of 15 games overall before upsetting the Cowboys last week. Ideal setup here. 10* INDIANAPOLIS

Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #465 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Pittsburgh Steelers @ 1 ET - The Steelers are undefeated with one of the top defenses in the league. Talk to me when they play somebody with a pulse! I am not saying Pittsburgh is not a good team. I am just saying it is easy to be the #1 defense and have an undefeated record when you have played 3 of the worst teams (and worst offenses) in the league. The Steelers have played the Texans, Broncos, and Giants this season. All 3 of those teams rank at the bottom of the league statistically on offense and are a combined 1-11 this season! The Eagles have played the Rams and 49ers and yes San Francisco is hurting some but so too is Philly and yet they beat them outright on the road Sunday night. The 4 teams the Eagles played this season have a combined record of 7-8-1. That is not earth-shattering by any means but much better than the slate of teams with the combined 1-11 record which is who the Steelers have faced thus far. Also, even with facing a much tougher schedule, the Philly defense ranks just behind Pittsburgh's highly touted defense in terms of yardage allowed per game. The Steelers got a bye they didn't want last week. Teams don't want a bye this early in the season but covid-19 changed Pittsburgh's schedule. They are in a lookahead spot here with the 3-1 Browns on deck plus that is followed by a tough Titans team and then the 3-1 Ravens. So two key division rivals coming up and an undefeated Tennessee team whom the Steelers had already been game planning for before the cancellation happened. Facing an NFC team is not high on the Steelers list of concerns when you look at their upcoming schedule. Perhaps they do win this game but I expect the margin to be a single score and with this line having moved to 7.5 the value is clearly with the road dog in my opinion. Memo to the Steelers for this week: you're finally playing a team with a pulse. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #302 Thursday 8* Chicago Bears (+) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:20 ET - I know the Bears looked ugly in their home game versus the Colts on Sunday but that was, in my opinion, not unexpected. The head coach of Indianapolis is Frank Reich. He was the offensive coordinator for the Eagles and knows plenty about Nick Foles (Super Bowl winner with Philadelphia a few years ago). The Indianapolis defense is ranked #1 this season and, thanks to Reich's knowledge about Foles and his tendencies the game planning Indy had for that game was top notch. That was part of the reasoning behind why I faded the Bears last week and used the Colts as my top play of the week and it paid off as they dominated. Now I come right back and play ON Chicago as I expect them to bounce back here at home on a short week. The travel situation is certainly tougher for the Buccaneers as they were at home in Tampa Bay plus expended a lot of energy in rallying from a 24-7 late first half deficit against the Chargers. Give TB credit for that rally and I know they are a good football team but this looks like a bad spot for them. The Bears will respond off their first loss of the season. Chicago has allowed an average of only 16 points per game in their two home games this season. I know some pick-sixes have played a role too but, the fact remains, the Buccaneers have allowed more than 30 points now twice in their first four games. I like the Bears defense at home in this one and fully expect a big bounce back effort from the offense here. 8* CHICAGO

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #279 Monday 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons (+) @ Green Bay Packers @ 8:50 ET - Winless teams bring a little extra hunger to games at this stage in the season. Yesterday the winless teams whom were not facing a team that was also winless went a perfect 3-0 ATS as the Bengals, Giants, and Eagles all covered. Also, in the other two match-ups this week involving winless teams it was a battle of teams seeking their first wins as the Broncos faced the Jets Thursday and the Vikings faced the Texans Sunday. In both cases the road team (and the dog) won each game outright. You can see where I am going with this. Yes, the Packers are undefeated on the season and the Falcons are winless but I am riding with the road dog in this one. This game is at Lambeau Field so normally about 3 points added for that. That said, Green Bay opened up as low as a 5-point favorite in this one. I love being a contrarian. That line is saying the 3-0 Packers are only two points better than the winless Falcons on a neutral field. Of course the betting markets are in love with the Pack here and the line is now up to a -7 as of game day morning. I'll gladly grab the points here. The Falcons come in angry as they have blown huge leads (inexcusable!) to the Cowboys and Bears this season. Big dogs left for dead across the sports world are capable of rising up when others least expect it. That was the case with the Eagles last night in the NFL and the Heat in the NBA as well. I sense another shocker here as the Falcons first game of the year was against a tough Seahawks team and then they did build HUGE leads against both Dallas and Chicago before losing those games. The point is that the Falcons are a better team than many are thinking right now and I know what kind of effort they will bring on a Monday Night with the nation walking. Guys show up big for games like this when they are highly motivated and certainly the winless Falcons play this game with a chip on their shoulder. 10* ATLANTA

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #277 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ San Francisco 49ers @ 8:20 ET - This is more of a play against the 49ers. San Francisco will again be without QB Jimmy Garappolo this week and, on the other side of the ball, are without CB Richard Sherman and 2019 Defensive ROY Nick Bosa. The 49ers are 2-1 to start the season but the 3 teams they have played were a combined 16-31-1 last season. Based on last year's records, this is the toughest team that the Niners have faced yet this season and yet the line keeps climbing and climbing. Yes the Eagles have some injury issues but, as you can see above, so does San Francisco. The fact we can get more than a TD with a Philly team that was up 17-0 versus Washington and lost plus comes into this game very hungry after missing an opportunity for a win (and settling for a tie) versus the Bengals last week is a solid value spot here. The Eagles remain very hungry for that first win of the season and this is a team with a roster full of proud players only a couple seasons removed from a Super Bowl win and still stinging from last year's first round exit from the playoffs. Hungering for their first win they may not get it here but, if they don't, look for the Eagles to fall short by just a single score in this one. Philly defense is allowing just 330.7 ypg this season while the Niners are allowing only 304 ypg. Keep in mind the Eagles had to face the Rams this season. San Francisco has only faced 3 non-playoff teams. That is the story line here as this will be the toughest match-up the Niners have faced and I know the Eagles defense is going to "bring it" in this one too. Nick Mullens had great numbers last week but this isn't the Giants or the Jets defenses that he faced in his first two appearances! By the way, San Francisco has covered just 7 of their last 25 as a home favorite! That is a 28% ATS rate! Getting 7.5 or 8 here is a real bargain in fading the 49ers in this one. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #251 Sunday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts (-) @ Chicago Bears @ 4:25 ET - The Bears are 3-0 this season and yet they are an underdog, even though at home, against the 2-1 Colts. As a result, many are calling this line a "mistake" but long-time followers know how I feel about "mistakes" in terms of lines! The fact is that Indianapolis is deservedly the favorite here. The Bears have come back from huge deficits against the Lions and Falcons for two of their three wins this season and they barely held off the hapless Giants for their other victory this season! Those 3 teams that Chicago has barely (and in two cases, fortunately) beaten were a combined 14-33-1 last season! Now they take on a Colts team that looks like the real deal. Yes I know that Indianapolis also has played a rather weak schedule but the Vikings did go 10-6 last season and Jacksonville is better than their early season record would indicate. The road loss to the Jaguars in the season opener for Indy is their only loss so far on the young campaign. Indianapolis outgained the Jags 445-241 in that game but were done in by turnovers. The way I see it the Colts could easily be 3-0 on the season while the Bears aren't too far off from being an 0-3 team this season. We are only in Week 4 of the season and Chicago is already the first team in NFL history with two wins in the same season in games in which they trailed by 16 or more points in the 4th quarter. That won't happen here against a team that ranks as the #1 defense in the NFL so far this season. The Bears scoring defense ranks decently but their yardage defense ranks middle of the pack (15th) in the NFL and again they have faced teams that went 14-33-1 last season. I know Nick Foles is still a solid QB as he showed last week, but the Colts are well coached and Frank Reich (former Eagles offensive coordinator) knows plenty about Foles. Their top-ranked defense will frustrate Foles and the Bears in this one and I look for QB Philip Rivers and company to pull away as this one goes on. 10* INDIANAPOLIS

Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #265 Sunday 8* Los Angeles Chargers (+) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 1 ET - Now that this line has climbed to as high as a 7.5 as of early Sunday morning, it is "go time" with this one. Rookie Chargers QB Hebert is making his first ever road start but I like what I have seen from this LA offense. In fact statistically they rank much better in yardage than the Bucs. The fact is, based on stats, the Chargers should have more points than the Buccaneers early this season but that is reversed right now and that results in value in spots like this. Last week the Chargers outgained the Browns by 134 yards and had a 26-14 first down edge and yet lost the game outright. That results in line value in a situation such as this particular one and TB doesn't exactly have a good history as a home favorite. In fact, the Buccaneers have covered just 5 of their last 22 when in that role! With the defenses about equal and the Chargers offense averaging 425.7 ypg comparted to just 334 ypg for the Buccaneers, I am grabbing the big dog value in this one. 8* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Thursday Thrasher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #101 Thursday 10* Top Play Denver Broncos (+) @ New York Jets @ 8:20 ET - Do you think the odds makers didn't know about the QB situation for the Broncos? Or that they were clueless about everything when they set this line in the -2 or -2.5 range on Denver? In fact, a few days ago this line had the Broncos favored by 3 points and then now they are a 2-point underdog? Long-time followers know how I feel about line moves like this and I'll absolutely grab the value here with the Broncos after a 5-point line swing! The fact is both these teams have injuries on both sides of the ball and it is an ugly match-up as each team is 0-3 to start the season. Of course many will argue that the Jets have the home field edge but, again, the odds makers knew where this game was being played when they made the line! I expect QB Rypien to have a solid start for the Broncos against a bad Jets defense. The fact he got some work in the last game and threw a pick on his final pass (after 8 straight completions) is actually a good thing. If he gone 9 for 9 with a TD pass he might have lost focus here. That interception, which did not cost the Broncos the game by the way, was actually the best thing that could have happened to him. Watch this Denver team come into East Rutherford fully focused on both sides of the ball and get their first win of the season. Keep in mind, the Jets haven't even been close this season. New York has lost all 3 games by a double digit margin and their average margin of defeat is 19 points. The Broncos lost last week was their first ugly one. They lost their first two games by a COMBINED 7 points. Both teams have struggled early this season as their 0-3 records indicate BUT the Broncos have been the more competitive team and we'll see that again in this one. I'll gladly take the points here. 10* DENVER

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #490 Monday 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens (-) vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:15 ET - Two very strong teams but the Ravens have won 14 regular season games in a row SU and are at home for this game and have revenge from last year's loss at Kansas City and have the much better defense in this match-up. Indeed, even though the Chiefs have not allowed a lot of points this season their defense statistically (based on yardage allowed) comes into this week ranked poorly. The Ravens defense comes into this week ranked as one of the best in the NFL and that was the case last season as well. By the way, Chiefs ranked in middle of pack defensively last year. KC wins games with their offense and, also, their defense is known to not travel as well. The Chiefs D is known for being tougher when at home. That said, I really like the Ravens in this key early season match-up and possible AFC Championship preview. The better D, the home field, the revenge factor, and Baltimore is on an 11-1 ATS run. The Ravens have quite a solid offense as well even though the Chiefs get more of the hype. That said, we'll fade the hype and lay the small number to have a highly motivated small home favorite in this one. This is a statement game for the home team against the defending Super Bowl champs. 10* BALTIMORE

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #488 Sunday 8* New Orleans Saints (-) vs Green Bay Packers @ 8:20 ET - I know these teams had identical 13-3 records last season but didn't it seem like almost every break imaginable went the Packers way last year? That type of "magic" is, of course, unlikely to be repeated again this year and, in fact, things usually play out in opposite fashion after a year like that. I know Green Bay is already 2-0 this season but they beat a Vikings team that has some major issues (how about that performance, coming off a loss, against the Colts last week?) and the Packers other win was against a bad Lions team. The Saints won in week 1 against a Bucs team many feel has a great shot at a super bowl run with Brady now at QB. Now off a loss in week 2 against a Raiders team that felt like it had to lift the city of Las Vegas onto its shoulders as it opened up the new stadium Monday night, look for New Orleans to respond off defeat. The Saints were on a 12-3 ATS run prior to the loss to the Raiders. Also, I like the fact this line was a -6 when it opened and it has crashed all the way down to a -3. I am aware of the injury situations for both teams and this line move is simply not justified in my opinion. Saints at home and off a loss and taking on a Packers team that hasn't been truly tested yet this season. I like this set-up a ton and will lay the short number. 8* NEW ORLEANS

Game of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #484 Sunday 10* Top Play Denver Broncos (+) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 4:25 ET - This line has shot up from a 3.5 to as high as a 6.5 and, of course, that is mostly based on Broncos QB Lock being out for this one. However, Driskell actually played quite well in relief of Lock and that was against a tough Steelers defense. Now he takes on a Bucs team that was one of the worst teams in the league last year against the pass. Also, I am not sold just yet on Tampa Bay. They have all this hype now because of Tom Brady at QB but last time I checked this is still a team that didn't have a winning record last season. Now they are on the road against a Broncos team that finished up last season on a red hot streak in home games. I know they are 0-2 this season but Denver played a pair of tough teams and lost the games by a combined total of just 7 points. Look for the Broncos to be in this game all the way. Denver has a respectable defense and, even without a stadium full of fans the Broncos have an extra home field edge do the elevation there. That is something visitors are not as use to. That is part of the reason the Broncos have failed to cover only TWICE the last DOZEN times they have been a home dog. The Buccaneers were helped by 4 Carolina turnovers last week and they lost their opening game (and only road game) to the Saints thus far. I feel this TB team is way over-rated and an outright upset here would not surprise me which is why I am elevating this play (at plus the points) to my highest level. 10* DENVER

Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #474 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Cincinnati Bengals @ 1 ET - Third time will be the charm for the Eagles (and for me). I would not be touching this game if the line had moved 2.5 points the other way but the way this line moved we have strong value with the home favorite in this one. The Eagles opened as high as 6.5 in many books. If the line had gone to a -9 then of course I am not touching them. But the line went the other way to a -4 and the Eagles are a in a great situation here at home and off a home loss. Yes each team is 0-2 to the start the season and I understand Bengals QB Joe Burrow has looked good thus far. But are people forgetting Cincinnati went 2-14 last season while Philadelphia won 4 straight games to close the season out with a winning record and a playoff berth? These teams have not changed that much that they are now essentially equal! Keep in mind teams are normally assessed about 3 points for their home field edge. I know the home field edge is different early this season because of the whole covid-19 situation but the betting markets pushing this line to a 4 are very close to saying the Bengals and Eagles line would be almost a pick'em on a neutral field. I certainly don't see it that way. Philly is angry and has 3 turnovers in each of their first two games. Cincinnati played teams that went a combined 11-21 last season. I know the Eagles also matched up with a weak team (Washington) in game one but they gave that game away after amassing a 17-0 lead. Last week they played a tough Rams team that still has plenty of talent. I think the markets are all wrong with their current assessment of these teams and the Eagles offer great line value at this low number. The Eagles are healthier on the offensive line and defensive line than they've been in their other games early this season and they will win the wars in the trenches in this one. This is a VERY angry and proud team that will show up at home for this one and I see them winning by at least a full TD. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #301 Thursday 10* Top Play Miami Dolphins (+) @ Jacksonville Jaguars @ 8:20 ET - The first lines on this one were as low as a "pick'em". Keep in mind this is a match-up of teams featuring an 0-2 Dolphins team and a 1-1 Jaguars team that did win their only home game. In other words, it is "too easy" right? Just take the home team to win and, of course, that is what everyone is doing as the line has been driven up to a -3 on Jacksonville as of early gameday morning. In typical contrarian fashion I am on the other side of the line move. Dolphins hungry for that first win of that season and wrapped up last season on a 3-2 ATS run their last 5 road games. Their first road game this season was at New England and they failed to cover. However, though the Jaguars might be improving some they are not the Patriots! Also, the Jags are now 3-7 SU their last 10 games overall. I'll grab the points here. 10* MIAMI

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #289 Monday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints (-) @ Las Vegas Raiders @ 8:15 ET - Interesting that the Raiders barely beat the Panthers last week and the Saints were quite dominant against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers and then when you look at yesterday's results. Tampa Bay really "took it" to Carolina yesterday. You can see where I am going with this. I just feel that the Saints are the much better team than the Raiders and that this is especially true at this early stage of the season. New Orleans was better defensively last week and last season in comparison with the Raiders. I know this is the first game in the new stadium here in Las Vegas where I live but it is not the same atmosphere that it would have been had fans been allowed to attend. That said, it is not a huge home field edge really and with the Saints having opened up at nearly a full 7 point favorite and now being available at -5.5 I won't hesitate to step in. The Raiders, though off a win in Week 1, wrapped up last season on a 1-6 run. Also, 6 of their 9 losses last seen came by a margin of 18 or more points! The Saints are off a 13-3 season but very hungry after getting bounced in their first game of the post-season last year. In other words, this is a team on a mission and I don't see them losing a game like this. Not at this early stage of the season at least and based on the Raiders penchant for blowout losses I am comfortable laying the -5.5 here. 10* NEW ORLEANS

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #288 Sunday 8* Seattle Seahawks (-) vs New England Patriots @ 8:20 ET - This is a contrarian play. But being a contrarian is perhaps most important in the NFL over any other sport in the league. Everyone is enamored with the Patriots here because they are an underdog which is so rare with a Bill Belichick team. Well this New England team has problems. Yes they beat the Dolphins at home in Week 1 but who wouldn't beat the Dolphins at home in Week 1? Now Cam "full of himself" Newton is going to visit Seattle and get crushed by a Seahawks defense that honestly got caught looking ahead to this game and were fortunate to get past the Falcons last week. Oftentimes when team lookahead they lose but Russell Wilson completed a ridiculous 31 of 35 passes and wouldn't allow that to happen as they escaped defeat at Atlanta. Over 300 yards passing and 4 touchdowns for Wilson as he led them to victory. Now a Patriots defense that lost a couple of key players to the Lions over the off-season is going to try and stop Wilson and company on the road. It won't happen. What will happen is that the Seahawks defense plays much better at home than they did on the road. This is the norm for Seattle. The Seahawks had a rough year defensively last year and are anxious to make up for that here and will be fired up for their home opener and a Sunday night game. Seattle has gone 13-4 ATS its last 17 home openers. The Patriots are just 5-5 (including playoffs) since their 8-0 start to last season. Also, Brady now plays in Tampa Bay in case you haven't heard. In all seriousness though, the oddsmakers set the opening line on this one at Seahawks -3.5 for a reason and I look for a home win by double digits in this one as the much-weakened Patriots get exposed in their first true test after the Tom Brady era. 8* SEATTLE

Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #281 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Cardinals vs Washington @ 4:05 ET - These were two of the worst defensive units in the NFL last season. These two teams are both off upset wins in Week 1. Historically I have done well taking overs when a team is off an upset win. This is particularly true when that upset win was in a divisional game. That is the case for both teams here. What happens here is that, even if it is on a subconscious level, teams tend to lose a little bit of their defensive intensity when off an upset win of a division rival. Keep in mind this week now features a non-divisional match-up. At the same time, coming off a win, the offensive units feel like they can "get it done" and "whatever it takes" to win. They have that confidence of having won the week before and the Cardinals certainly have plenty of playmakers on offense and an offensive-minded head coach. However, this is a team whose defense has been sorely lacking and now they face a Washington offense that has some confidence after rallying from a 17-0 deficit to win 27-17 last week versus the Eagles. The result will be plenty of points in this one and I also like the fact that no many are paying attention to this total. This O/U has stayed in the same spot since it opened and I like games that off the radar a bit as we tend to get even more value in spots like that. Lets take advantage again here using a system that has worked very well for me through the years in the NFL. 10* OVER the total in Arizona

Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #262 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles Money Line (-) vs Los Angeles Rams @ 1 ET - Right away when this line opened up with Philly -3.5 I knew what was going to happen. That was an open invitation to take the Rams and of course that is what happened. The bets flowed in on Los Angeles and drove this line into the pick'em range. Of course the reason for that is bettors have a short memory span. They remember what they just saw and, of course, everyone saw the Eagles blow a 17 point lead at Washington to lose to a lousy football team while then later watching the Rams beat "America's Team" on national television. Never put too much weight into one week's results. Also, the Eagles will have Lane Johnson back for the offensive line this week plus their starting RB Miles Sanders too. Those are two very key pieces and will help rectify the fact that QB Carson Wentz had no chance in Week 1. He was sacked 8 times and threw 2 picks and also lost a fumble. The Eagles will be better able to establish the ground game this week which will open up the passing game which will also feature better pass protection based on healthier bodies. The Rams are a good team for sure but they are coming off a home win while the Eagles are off a road loss. Now LA is all the way on the East Coast for a game that starts at 10 AM on their body clocks and they're facing an angry Eagles team. Philadelphia won each of its last 4 regular season games last season and also 4 of their last 6 home games in regular season action. Back home and off a disappointing road loss and catching the Rams off an upset win, situations don't get much better than this. With the line having settled back into the -1.5 range on this one, the best value in my opinion is to utilize the low price on the money line. 8* PHILADELPHIA money line (-120 range)

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #101 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals @ 8:20 ET - Both teams games stayed under the total in Week One but yet this total opened up as high as a 46. Not surprisingly, the total has since dropped by about a field goal. In typical contrarian fashion, I am on the other side of the line move and taking advantage of the added value. Of course being on the other side it is not without reasoning of course. For one thing, even though the Browns scored only 6 points in Week One, they faced a very tough Ravens defense. Also, Cleveland had 20 first downs in that game so they were able to "move the chains" decently but were done in by 3 turnovers and a lack of execution at key times. The Browns will undoubtedly be able to execute a little better against a Bengals defense which ranked dead last against the run last season and was one of the worst defenses in the league overall based on yardage and scoring. The Browns defense wasn't a whole lot better as they were #30 against the run last season and also ranked 20th or worse in the categories of overall defense based on yardage and scoring. Cleveland got Hunt and Chubb going on the ground in Week One and Cincinnati got solid yardage on the ground from Mixon plus from QB Burrow. Establishing the ground game can open things up for the aerial attack and both Burrow and Browns QB Mayfield should have stronger games this week. I know the Bengals game totaled just 35 points last week but Cincinnati and the Chargers both had wasted scoring opportunities and also settled for field goals instead of touchdowns. All of this has led to line value with this total this week and I won't hesitate to step in on this one. Both teams will "open up the playbooks on offense" a little more after a conservative Week One efforts that were practically like preseason games for teams to try and work out the kinks after a strange off-season. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland 

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #479 Monday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (-) @ New York Giants @ 7:15 ET - Continuity matters in a season like this that is being played without a normal off-season to say the least. Not only that, no pre-season either. That said, can a situation be any worse than that of the Giants. They brought in a new head coach, new offensive coordinator, and new defensive coordinator. New York begins the season by taking on a Steelers team that gets a big boost with the return of QB Ben Roethlisberger under center. The Pittsburgh offense stumbled badly in 2019 without him but were solid in 2018 with him. As for the Giants, a number of concerns along the offensive line and I expect the Steelers to dominate this game in the trenches. New York will struggle to establish the run as a result and this will turn Giants QB Jones into a sitting duck for the Steelers blitz-heavy packages. This one can (and should) get ugly and I am laying the points with the road team. Yes it may seem a bit much but it is justified. In fact, the Giants are on a 1-10 ATS run as home dogs! Also, the Steelers are on a 6-2 ATS run against NFC opponents and New York has failed to cover eight straight home openers! This one turns into a road rout. 10* PITTSBURGH

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #478 Sunday 8* Los Angeles Rams (+) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - Speaking of hype machines, there tends to no team getting more positive press coming into each season then America's Team. This season is no different and the Cowboys once again are penned by many as a team to beat this season. I know they now have McCarthy at coach but I think it is an organizational issue in Dallas that trickles down from the top level down through the staff and players and the results are not pretty. So now this Cowboys team that lost 5 of its last 7 road games is favored on the road against a Rams team playing with a chip on its shoulder after a disappointing 2019. I am not done yet. Dallas had 3 road wins last season and they came against teams with the following "impressive" records: 4-12, 3-12-1, 3-13. Super Bowl contenders, eh? Dallas first needs to prove they can win a road game against a decent football team! They never did it last season and I challenge them to do it right away here in Week 1 against a Rams team that has revenge from a 44-21 loss at Dallas last season. What happened in that game? LA was off back to back divisional wins and had just beaten Seattle 28-12 plus had another divisional game on deck at San Francisco. Scheduling situations don't get much worse than that. In other words don't let last season's result between these teams fool you. Rams are fully focused here and that is bad news for an overly hyped Cowboys team that can't beat a good team on the road to save their life. I'll gladly grab the home dog here. 8* LOS ANGELES RAMS

Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #476 Sunday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints (-) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 4:25 ET - Remember all the hype last season about the Browns? Then Cleveland began the season with a 43-13 loss in their season opener on their way to a 2-6 start. The Browns also lost their final 3 games of the season to finish 6-10 for the year. Now certainly I am not saying the Bucs are down so low that they are on the same level as Cleveland. But what I am saying is sometimes playing against the "hype machine" is one of the best things you can do. TB is so over-rated right now in my opinion because of Brady and Gronkowski. Let me remind some people of some facts about this Buccaneers team. Tampa Bay is off a losing season, ranked 24th in the NFL for rushing yardage, near the bottom of the NFL in both punt returns and kick returns, 30th in the NFL for pass defense and 29th in the NFL for scoring defense. Now they are very small 3.5 point dogs ON THE ROAD against a Super Bowl contender coming off a 13-3 season and very hungry after losing their playoff game in overtime. The Saints have covered 11 of their last 14 games overall and this line was up closer to 6 and now is down near a field goal. That is big time value especially when you consider that Tampa Bay has covered just 3 of its last dozen games. I really enjoy watching over-hyped teams get blasted and am confident that we will see exactly that right here. 10* NEW ORLEANS

Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #463 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ Washington @ 1 ET - Hungry football team here with the Eagles off the disappointing playoff loss. So here you have a playoff-caliber team taking on a Washington team that doesn't even know what its name is. Washington also is having off-field issues relating to its front office and truly this is an organization that I have pegged as the worst team in the NFC. Washington is on a 1-7 ATS run in their last 8 home openers and the Eagles are confident when facing this team. Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings and this line (currently 5.5 and having dropped from opening at -7) offers great line value. The Eagles average margin of victory in those 5 wins is 13 points per game. Philadelphia has covered 6 of its last 7 as a road favorite in divisional action. Washington, against NFC East foes, is on an ugly 4-15 ATS run. The much better team rolls to a double digit win here as they get rid of the bitter taste of last year's playoff defeat at the hands of the Seahawks. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #452 Thursday 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs (-) vs Houston Texans @ 8:20 ET - Continuity is always very important in the NFL from year to year. It helps a team get a season off to a good start. There has probably never been a year that it has been more important then 2020! With all the issues relating to the pandemic this year it has certainly been an unusual off season, training camp, etc. That said, I give a big edge to the Chiefs here and am happy to grab the line value here as well. This line was in the 10.5 range when it opened but has now dropped to as low as a -9 as of early game day morning. I'll grab the value and lay the points here. Keep in mind, the Texans made some changes at the skill positions of RB and WR. How quickly will everyone "click" and "mesh" and this could be even more problematic when you are on the road and playing in the rain (which is expected throughout the game at Arrowhead tonight). Also, how confident can the Texans be here. They had a 24-0 lead in the post-season game and inexplicably got outscored by a 44 point margin the rest of the way. Yes, JJ Watt is back for this game but he can't play defense all by himself for Houston. I also don't necessarily agree with whom they have at defensive coordinator now either. 40 year old Anthony Weaver will be the one play-calling here and trying to stop Patrick Mahomes and company. What a way to start your career as a DC for the first time! In any event I know Romeo Crennel, former DC, is still on the staff as assistant head coach but he couldn't figure out how to stop the Chiefs either! I just don't see the Texans as being able to get enough stops here to stay within single digits here and don't be surprised if their offense has some miscues early considering some of their personnel changes. 10* KANSAS CITY

Super Bowl Slaughter - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #101 San Francisco 49ers (-) vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 6:30 ET Sunday - The Chiefs have won and covered 8 games in a row. However, Kansas City has allowed an average of 25.3 points their last 3 games. The 49ers, conversely, have allowed an average of just 17 points their last 3 games. KC can be run on and San Francisco can and will emphasize the ground game here. That will help limit QB Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs scoring opportunities in this game as the Niners can use their ground game to control the tempo a bit in this game. The 49ers outrushed KC by over 100 yards in their meeting last season. San Francisco allowed 125 rushing yards in a recent game versus Seattle. However, in their other 4 recent games they have allowed an average of 61 rushing yards per game. Conversely the Chiefs have allowed 97 rushing yards per game their last 4 games. The Niners this season are 5-0 SU and ATS in their 5 games this season with lines ranging from -3 to +3. Can the Chiefs stay hot after scoring so many points in consecutive game? History says no. Kansas City is 4-9 ATS when they enter a game having scored 30 or more points in 3 straight games. The Niners have averaged running for 200 yards per game their past 3 games. San Francisco has scored an average of 32 points per game their last 6 games. The better defense and better ground game has me siding with the 49ers here. 10* SAN FRANCISCO

Total of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #312 Sunday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in San Francisco 49ers vs Green Bay Packers @ 6:40 ET - This total has moved from a 44.5 to a 46.5 and I like the extra value here in a game where the Packers know they need to run the ball and take pressure off QB Aaron Rodgers. This means running clock and that means keeping the 49ers offense off the field. Yes, San Francisco scored 37 points in the first meeting between these teams but they had only 339 yards of offense in that game. Speaking of low offensive numbers in that game, the 49ers allowed just 198 yards of total offense to Green Bay in that one. The Packers game last week versus Seattle snuck over the total but Green Bay entered that game on a run in which 7 of 8 games resulted in an under. The Packers D has allowed an average of just 16 points per game in its last 6 games. The 49ers D has allowed 21 points or less in 11 of 17 games this season. San Francisco's defense turned things up a notch in the 2nd half of last week's game and will carry that momentum right into this game. Dating back to the early nineties, there have been 7 times in which the Packers have played with revenge from a blowout loss of 28 or more points. The result in that situation? 0 overs and 7 unders! Look for that trend to hold true again on Sunday. The Niners have had 5 unders and 2 overs in their last 7 games against NFC North opponents. Both teams willing (and hoping) to grind out yardage on the ground in this one and the total has simply climbed too high considering the factors above as well as the fact each of these defenses rank in the top ten this season for points allowed. 10* UNDER the total in San Francisco

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #313 Sunday 10* Top Play Tennessee Titans (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 3:05 ET - One look at the box score tells you the Titans won with "smoke and mirrors" last week at Baltimore. However, this is as much a play against Kansas City as it is a play on Tennessee. More on that in a moment. First, more about the Titans. You can't discount how much momentum means to a football team and the fact is Tennessee is rolling with confidence right now. Why? Well a team that started the season 2-4 has now won 9 of 12. Also, the Titans are on the road for the 4th straight week but who cares? You think they are going to fall flat or get tired in a game in which they have a chance to go to the Super Bowl? Of course not. Plus Tennessee is 5-0 SU in their last 5 road games. Now, about going to the Super Bowl, lets talk about Kansas City and specifically Andy Reid. I have been in this business for two decades now. Long-time followers know my family roots are in Rickenbach, PA. Google it. Small town area about 65 miles northwest of Philadelphia. In any event I follow the Eagles VERY closely. What does that have to do with this play? Andy Reid started coaching the Eagles two decades ago in 1999. I have closely followed his career every since. With BOTH the Eagles and with the Chiefs, the fact is he can not win the big game. He has had 6 chances in a Conference Championship Game and won just once! That was the lone season he took Philadelphia to the Super Bowl in 2004 and they lost to the Patriots. So he is 1-6 SU in the Biggest Games of his career and yet here his KC team is laying 7.5 points to a Titans team that seems to be a team of destiny this season. As bad as Tennessee was statistically last week against the Ravens, they did run the ball very well and they will pound the Chiefs on the ground in this game too. While Kansas City has given plenty of bulletin board material to the Titans defense for this game as their receivers are so good nobody can cover them according to the Chiefs. The Titans have allowed just 15.4 points per game in their last 5 road games. The Chiefs have allowed 21 points or more in 6 of 9 home games this season. KC may find a way to pull this game out but, if they do, I expect it to be by 3 or 4 points (and 7 at the most). With 7 plus the hook available (as of Thursday evening), I am pulling the trigger right now on this one. 10* TENNESSEE

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #308 Sunday 8* Green Bay Packers (-) vs Seattle Seahawks @ 6:40 ET - Seattle took advantage of a wounded Eagles team and even inflicted further injury upon them by knocking Carson Wentz out of the game in last week's playoff victory at Philadelphia. Whether playing dirty or not it was an ugly way for Seattle to win a game and they now face a much tougher test this week. The Seahawks face a Packers team that is much healthier than the Eagles were and that also is coming off a bye week. Keep in mind, Seattle had lost 3 of their last 4 games prior to knocking off a badly depleted Philadelphia team last week. Also, the Seahawks have been held to 17 points or less in 3 of their last 4 road games. The Packers, on the other hand, have scored 21 points or more in all 8 of their home games this season. Green Bay has averaged 25.6 points per game as a host this season and we've got a small line to work with here. Seattle is a long-term 4-8 ATS when off a game in which they allowed 14 or less points. Green Bay is 4-0 ATS when off a win by 3 or less points. The Packers are 5-0 ATS when off a non-covering win. 8* GREEN BAY

Playoff Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #306 Saturday 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs (-) vs Houston Texans @ 3:05 ET - The Texans were fortunate to rally back from a 13-0 deficit last week and eventually beat the Bills in overtime. However, Houston was fortunate that Buffalo made key mistakes that also played a role in the comeback plus the Texans were at home for that game. This is a much different situation this week. Now Houston is on the road and facing a Kansas City team which is off a bye week and also has won 6 straight games. The Chiefs are playing this game with revenge from a rare home loss to the Texans earlier this season but, revenge or not, Kansas City is destined for a blowout win here. KC has outscored the opponents by an average score of 28 to 11 during this 6-game winning streak. Their defense has been fantastic and the Texans have been at the other end of the spectrum in terms of how they finished up the season. Houston was again outgained in last week's playoff win over the Bills and the Texans have now been outgained in 6 of their past 8 games. The Texans haven't just been getting nipped in the stats department either. Houston was outgained by an average of nearly 100 yards per game in those 6 games. The Texans are 1-6 ATS this season when coming off an ATS cover. When the Chiefs are off back to back covers as a favorite they have gone 9-3 ATS including 3-1 ATS this season. The KC defense has held 3 of their last 4 opponents under 300 yards of offense. Also, the Houston defense has allowed 26.6 points per game in its last 8 games. There is simply no comparison in terms of the way these two defenses have been playing of late and the Chiefs also have the rest edge and home field edge. 10* KANSAS CITY

Playoff Total of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #303 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Ravens vs Tennessee Titans @ 8:15 ET - Of course the Titans would like to slow this game down by utilizing their ground game to keep the dangerous Ravens offense off the field. However, I don't see that happening here. I look for Baltimore to get a big lead and then, the only way for Tennessee to battle back will be by utilizing the aerial attack too. Prior to last week's under at New England, Titans games were on a 9-1 run to the over. Baltimore's defense has been great down the stretch run but I think one has to respect the huge point totals that Tennessee has been putting up over the latter half of this season as well. As for the Ravens offense, it is unquestionably among the most dangerous in the NFL. Considering those factors as well as the fact that unseasonably mild weather is taking hold on the east coast Saturday, this one should see points aplenty. Note that the Titans have scored at least 20 points in 11 straight games. The Ravens are favored by 10 here. You can see why I am expecting this game to get into the fifties given those numbers. The Ravens points scored ranks them #1 in the NFL this season. The over is 5-0 this season when Baltimore enters a game having won 2 of their last 3 games. The over is 9-5, including 4-2 this season, when the Ravens are off back to back games in which they have allowed 17 points or less. Big game for both offensive units in this one. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore 

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #301 Saturday 10* Top Play Minnesota Vikings (+) @ San Francisco 49ers @ 4:35 ET - That was a very strong Saints team which the Vikings defeated last week. Of course the 49ers have the rest edge here but I like what I have been seeing from this Minnesota team down the stretch run while the same can not be said for the 49ers. The Niners went 3-2 SU in their final 5 games of the season but all 3 wins came by 5 or less points. San Francisco is on a 1-3-1 ATS run in home games. The Vikings are 9-4 SU in their last 13 games and only 1 of the 4 losses came by more than 7 points. Both teams have solid defenses but San Francisco did give up 20 points or more in 8 of it last 9 games. The Vikings allowed 24 points or less in 14 of 17 games this season! Given those numbers, an outright upset here would not surprise and certainly value is on our side in having the full TD with the underdog. Long-term, San Francisco has covered just 5 of last 20 home games when they are a favorite. Look for that trend to continue here. 10* MINNESOTA

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #148 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) vs Seattle Seahawks @ 4:40 ET - The Eagles have that "feel" of a team of destiny again this year just like their magical run to the Super Bowl two years ago. Now, the fact is that once they run into one of the true powers in this season's loaded NFC they are likely to be in trouble. For example, a team like the Saints or the 49'ers. However, against the Seahawks and playing at home the Eagles absolutely should advance. Yes they are banged up at the wide receiver position but they are expected to have Ertz back at TE for this one plus they have a solid TE in Goedert as well. Plus at WR others have stepped up. That is why, even without Ertz, the Eagles Carson Wentz still threw for nearly 300 yards last week. Keep in mind this is a team without its top receivers. Wentz has done an incredible job and Miles Sanders and Boston Scott have been huge out of the backfield. Scott also caught 4 passes for 84 yards in the playoff-clinching win over the Giants last week. Now of course the Seahawks are a much better team than the Giants but to close the season the Eagles faced 4 straight must-win games (including a very talented Cowboys team) and all 4 were against divisional foes that wanted nothing more than to knock them off. Resilient Philly survived it all even with all the injuries on offense. I certainly respect the Seahawks offense but this is a team that lost 3 of its last 4 games plus Seattle allowed an average of 27 points per game over their final 5 games. Philadelphia, on the other hand allowed an average of only 13.3 points per game over their final 6 home games. The Eagles are very tough at home and when the Seahawks beat them here in Philly in November it was a deceiving final score. Philly had 9 more firstdowns than Seattle in that contest. The Seahawks were outgained by 371 yards over their last 4 games. The Eagles have outgained their opponents in 4 straight games by 339 yards. Philly continues to find a way to win games and I don't see Seattle winning again here. Its payback time and the Eagles are loaded with confidence right now and their defense doesn't get as much respect as it should. They're going to give Russell Wilson and company trouble in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #145 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings @ 1:05 ET - The Vikings offense will be strengthened by the fact that both running backs, Cook and Mattison, are healed up and ready to go here. Minnesota has averaged 31.7 points per game in their last 6 road games! The over is a perfect 5-0 in the Vikings last 5 road games! The over is 5-2 in the Saints last 7 games overall. New Orleans averaged 28.6 points per game this season. The Vikings defense is highly respected but this Saints offense generally operates at a level that is much higher than the rest of the league! New Orleans wrapped up the regular season by scoring 34 points or more in 6 of their last 7 games. The Saints allowed an average of 28 points per game in their final 4 home games of the season. Based on all of the above stats you can see why I would not be surprised to see either one of these teams, if not both, get into the 30 point range. That means great value here with this total in the upper 40s. Both games Saturday stayed under the total in the NFL post-season but this indoor game Sunday has all the makings of a shootout. New Orleans' Drew Brees is one of the best in the business. Vikings Kirk Cousins is out to prove all the doubters wrong in a big game. The over is 5-2 this season when Minnesota is off a home game. Also, the over is a long-term 5-1 when the Vikings are off consecutive home losses. The over is a long-term 6-1 when the Saints are off a blowout victory by a margin of 28 points or more over a division rival. 10* OVER the total in New Orleans

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #143 Saturday 10* Top Play Tennessee Titans (+) @ New England Patriots @ 8:15 ET - The Patriots are at home and laying a short number in the playoffs and, of course, have the incredible long-term numbers that coach Belichick and QB Brady have put together through their many years of making New England a dynasty. However, this team is nowhere close to being a dynasty anymore. The Eagles proved that when they beat the Pats in the 2018 Super Bowl and truly it was a miracle that New England won it all again in February of 2019. The run has ended however and this Patriots team is a shell of its former self and is having major troubles on offense. Brady is not what he once was and also does not have the weapons at his disposal that he once possessed. The defense is now the Pats strength but can they hold down the Titans potent offense enough to be able to score enough points to win this game? My answer to that question is an emphatic NO! Tennessee has NOT been held below 20 points in any of their past 10 games. During this stretch the Titans have scored an average of 30.4 points per game! Compare that with a Patriots team that had a chance to secure a first round bye and possible long-term home field edge in the post-season but blew it last week by losing AT HOME to the Dolphins! Absolutely inexcusable and the Pats even scored 24 points in the defeat. The Pats have scored more than 24 points just once in the past 8 games and, prior to that contest 3 games ago, New England had been held to an average of just 17.6 points per game over a 5-game stretch. I also like the coaching angle here with Vrabel facing his former team (both as a player and a coach) and he bested Belichick and the Pats when they most recently met. That was a dominating 34-10 win last season for the Titans over the Patriots. While this game will be a lot closer I am expecting the Titans to get the win. If they do fall short look for it to be by just 3 or 4 points and this line is currently a 5. I'll gladly grab the points here as the Titans defense allowed 24 points or less in 13 of 16 games and they have the better offense in this match-up too. 10* TENNESSEE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #141 Saturday 8* Buffalo Bills (+) @ Houston Texans @ 4:35 ET - Everyone is jumping on the Texans here. They have the home field edge. They are getting JJ Watt back on defense. The Bills have a young quarterback making his first ever playoff appearance and it is coming on the road. So of course everyone jumping on Houston and laying the short number. In typical contrarian fashion here I am grabbing the road dog. When a line looks funny or a little off it pays to be mindful of that. In this case I feel Buffalo is much better than people realize and I expect the outright win but will grab the points. The Texans defense has allowed an average of 28 points per game in their last 6 games played in Houston. By comparison the Bills have allowed an average of just 15.6 points per game in their 8 road games this season. You saw the Texans average on defense at home the past 6 games, now note that Buffalo never allowed more than 24 points in ANY of their 8 road games this season! In fact the Bills allowed 20 points or less in 7 of 8 road games. Also I don't trust Texans head coach Bill O'Brien in a playoff game. He has gone 1-3 in the NFL playoffs since he came to Houston from Penn State. The Bills lost here last season but had the yardage edge in that game and I look for the Bills Josh Allen to have a big game against a suspect Texans defense. 8* BUFFALO

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #129 Sunday 10* Top Play San Francisco 49ers (-) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 8:20 ET - The Seahawks let an opportunity slip away with their inexcusable home loss to the Cardinals last week. Seattle has now allowed an average of 27 points per game their past 4 games and they are banged up on offense too. The Niners are ready to swoop in and take advantage of the situation. Things are very simple for the 49ers here as they control their own destiny across the board. A win not only clinches the division and a first round bye for them, it also clinches home field edge for the post-season! San Francisco is not going to let this opportunity pass them by. The Niners and the Saints look like the two best teams in the NFC hands down no questions asked. That said, I don't foresee SF slipping up here. Other than their recent game at New Orleans - an absolute shootout - the 49ers have allowed 14.3 points per game on the road this season! Compare that to a Seahawks team that has allowed 30.5 points per game in their last 6 home games. Seattle actually was better on the road than at home this season while the Niners were also better on the road than at home this season. Seattle once was a tough place to play and a tough venue to score points in but, as you can see per the above, that is no longer the case. Also, San Francisco also has revenge here from a home OT loss to the Seahawks last month. It is payback time for the Niners and they are the healthier team and are 6-1 SU on the road while Seattle is 4-3 SU at home on the season. Comparing these two defenses there is no comparison! That is why I am happy to lay the small points here with the 49ers in a game I fully expect to turn into a road rout! 10* SAN FRANCISCO

Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #115 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ New York Giants @ 4:25 ET - The Eagles certainly have injury issues but they are not significant enough to prevent them from winning the NFC East. With a win Sunday at New York over the Giants they accomplish that goal. We are getting line value here because of the injury situation for Philadelphia. Now lets examine some important facts here. The Giants are just 4-11 this season. One of the wins came at Tampa Bay against a Buccaneers team that has won just TWO home games this season. Another Giants win came against a Dolphins team that is 4-11 this season. The other two New York victories came against the 3-12 Redskins. The point is that the Giants haven't won a challenging game all season. Sure New York would love to spoil the Giants division title hopes but I look for Philadelphia to dominate the ground game on both sides of the ball in this one and that will be a key. With rainy weather expected in East Rutherford, New Jersey this afternoon and into the evening, look for the ground game to be of particular importance. The Eagles are one of the best teams in the league at stopping the run. The Giants defense is bad overall and that includes stopping the run. New York's recent home games,, in terms of run defense, have included allowing 122 yards to Miami, 172 yards to Dallas, and 156 yards to Arizona. The Eagles run defense has had one bad game (versus Seattle) in their past 8 games. In the other 7 games they allowed 74.3 rushing yards per game. The Philadelphia defense has allowed 17 points or less in 6 of its last 8 games. The Giants defense has allowed 31 points or more in 5 of its last 8 games. Everyone focused on some Eagles injury issues here but their defense is quite healthy. The absence of CB Darby (constantly getting burned for big plays prior the injury) is honestly a case of addition by subtraction. The Philly secondary is better off without him. Look for the Eagles defense to lead the way here. The Giants D, on the other hand, has allowed an average of 29 points per game in its past 5 home games. Making that stat even more alarming is the fact that two of the games came against teams that currently have 5 or less wins on the season. This is a case of incredible line value because of the Eagles injury issues on offense. Yes, they have had injury issues at WR and now have lost TE Zach Ertz too. But Dallas Goedert has been strong at TE and Greg Ward has stepped up at WR with Whiteside also coming up with big catches. The backfield has plenty of options too with Miles Sanders, Boston Scott and now Jordan Howard is back from injury as well. The Eagles will get the ball into the hands of those guys as well including through the air. Philly has covered 5 of their last 6 as a divisional road favorite while the Giants are on a 1-4 ATS run as a divisional home dog. On both sides of the ball, the Eagles are strong in the trenches (and could have Lane Johnson back on the offensive line too) and I look for them to wear down the Giants as this game goes on. The last 15 times the Giants have been a home dog of 7 or less points they have gone 2-13 SU and 3-12 ATS. Look for the Eagles to win this one in a road rout and I'll take advantage of the small number posted on this game. Lay it! 10* PHILADELPHIA

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #131 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Denver Broncos vs Oakland Raiders @ 4:25 ET - Drew Lock has now played in 4 games at QB for the Broncos. He had one bad game at Kansas City but is almost never fun to face the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. The Raiders defense is most certainly NOT the KC defense! In his other 3 games Lock has completed 65 of 88 passes with a TD-INT ratio of 6-2. Though Denver's season is over, the Raiders still have a mathematical shot at the post-season with a win here. You know the Broncos want to reduce those odds of an Oakland post-season bid from slim to none though and they can do it with a home win here. That said, I look for a huge effort from Denver here at home. Of course the Raiders are going to want to do everything they can to give themselves a shot at the post-season but they are going to have to do it with their offense. The Oakland defense ranks among the worst in the league. As for the offense, we actually get some value with the over here because statistically the Raiders rate 14th in the league (out of 32 teams) but they just don't have the points to show for it. The point is that Oakland moves the ball better than what their scoring would lead you to believe. Though it will be cold in Denver today the winds will be 10 mph or less and yesterday's precipitation has moved out of the area. The result will be plenty of offense in this one. The over is 5-2 in the Broncos past 7 games. The Raiders have been trending under of late but this is an Oakland team that has allowed an average of 30 points per game when playing away from home this season. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Denver

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #124 Sunday 8* Detroit Lions (+) vs Green Bay Packers @ 1 ET - The Packers need to win. As a result, they are severely over-priced here. Lets not forget this is a short week for Green Bay (played on MNF) and they were on the road last week (at Minnesota) and now are on the road again. Yes the Lions have been struggling but what better way to end the season than coming up with a big home win as a double digit dog against a division rival that needs to win? I am not saying that I am predicting Detroit to win this game outright. However, I do feel they keep this game within single digits and, in fact, most likely a game decided by 7 or less points. Green Bay rallied to beat the Lions in their first match-up this season which was at Lambeau Field way back in mid-October. Ironically that 1-point loss to the Packers was the last time that Detroit has registered an ATS cover. This has led to extreme line value here. Yes the Lions have issues but they were only a 3-point dog in the first meeting despite being on the road. Now Detroit is at home for the second meeting and they are a 13-point dog. Even just using the normal 3 point home field edge that means the betting markets are saying the Lions are now 16 points worse than the Packers on a neutral field because keep in mind the original line would have meant the teams were about equal on a neutral field. This a 16-point line swing and it is way too much to ignore. The Packers are 12-3 SU this season but when you look at their yardage stats and game by game statistical results this is NOT a typical 12-3 team and they are definitely over-priced here. Look for the hungry Lions to make a game out of this one. 8* DETROIT

Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #481 Monday 10* Top Play Green Bay Packers (+) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 8:15 ET - Winning breeds confidence no matter the opposition. The point is that Green Bay comes into this game with plenty of confidence as they are on a 3-game winning streak and allowed 15 points or less in all 3 games. Granted, none of those teams have a winning record on the season but, as my opening sentence stated, winning leads to confidence. The Packers have only lost 3 games on the season and one of those was to Philadelphia when they did outgain the Eagles by a large margin. Another loss was to a Niners team that looks like one of the best teams in the NFL this season. The Packers really have had only one ugly defeat and that was that game at LA against the Chargers when they played like a team that didn't even show up for the game. Trust me, Green Bay is showing up for this divisional showdown with the Vikings. Also, the Vikings have been hot too and are on a 4-2 SU win but two of those four wins came by just 4 points. That means that laying the points that Minnesota is in this game, they would be on just a 2-4 ATS run. Green Bay is going to be tough for the Vikings to put away here. QB Aaron Rodgers is a big game player who has had many huge efforts in primetime action. Certainly for QB Kirk Cousins that is not the case. In fact, Cousins teams are 0-8 SU and ATS in Monday Night games! 8 LOSSES and ZERO wins! The Packers have a great shot at the outright upset here and if they do fall short I expect it to be by a field goal or less. Look for quite the game in Minneapolis Monday. Look for the Pack to improve to 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings with the Vikings. 10* GREEN BAY

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #480 Sunday 8* Chicago Bears (+) vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:20 ET - The Bears are eliminated from playoff contention but you won't see them laying down in a spot like this! Here Chicago is playing their final home game of the season and it is a big primetime Sunday night game hosting Patrick Mahomes and company. The Bears will go all out here to win their final home game of the season and that means we have exceptional line value being offered here. Chicago is available at nearly a full TD as a home dog in this spot. Prior to their loss at Green Bay last week, the Bears had won 3 straight games. The Chiefs have failed to cover 2 of their past 3 true road games (also faced the Chargers in Mexico). Chicago is a perfect 3-0 SU in their last 3 home games. Kansas City has been hot but they are 1-7 ATS when they enter a game after having won 6 or 7 out of their prior 8 games. The Bears are 8-1 ATS the last 9 times they have been a home underdog! Look for them to surprise the masses and get the job done again in that role here. 8* CHICAGO

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #476 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - The whole world seems to be lining up on the Cowboys here and you know how that usually plays out! In typical contrarian fashion I am fading the big move toward Dallas here but certainly it is not without good reasoning. Yes the Eagles have some injury issues - namely at WR but also RT Lane Johnson. However, this is a big-time revenge game for Philadelphia going against their most hated rival and this time the game is at Philly. Plus the Eagles rely a ton on their TEs and are strong at that position plus they've seen WR Greg Ward step up. Yes Dallas is off a blowout win over the Rams but they had lost 3 straight games prior to that. The Cowboys are a very inconsistent team from week to week prone to mistakes and certainly coach Jason Garrett is not exactly highly regarded. Watch him get out-coached in this one. The rematch will play out much differently than the first game. Dallas was at home last week but now returns to the road where they have lost 4 of their past 6. The Cowboys have 3 road wins on the season and ALL 3 came against teams that have just 3 wins on the season! Giants and Redskins are 3-11 and the Lions are 3-10-1. The Eagles are 18-6 SU in their last 24 home games. Philadelphia is 4-0 SU when off a game in which they scored 35 or more points. The Eagles, after failing to cover the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games, have gone 6-1 SU. Look for the Cowboys to drop to 2-5 ATS the last 7 times they've been a road favorite of 3 or less points. The Eagles defense is going to make up for an embarrassing performance the last time these teams met. Also, the Dallas defense has allowed 27 points or more in 2 of its last 3 road games. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Total of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #457 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Denver Broncos vs Detroit Lions @ 4:05 ET - I am aware there was some illness issues in the Broncos locker room this week but that truly has subsided as of now. Also, I am aware that both of these offenses have had some recent issues. But this total is simply far too low. Denver can be snowy and cold in December for sure but that is not the case here with a high temperatures in the 60s on a very beautiful afternoon with light winds too. That is going to allow for plenty of scoring too. Keep in mind the Broncos were held down by the snow in Kansas City last week. The prior week Denver put up 38 points at Houston! Speaking of 38, which also happens to be the posted total on this game, the Lions defense got mauled at home for 38 points last week versus Tampa Bay. This is simply not a very good defense and where is the motivation here? The fact is this is a meaningless late season game that is a non-conference match-up. Defensive intensity tends to range between minimal and none in situations like this and I expect both offenses to move the ball much better than many any expecting here. Keep in mind, the Lions defense has allowed 28.4 points per game in its last 11 games. Detroit has allowed at least 19 points (1/2 of today's total) in 13 of its 14 games this season! The Broncos defense has some injury issues here and they have allowed at least 19 points in 6 straight games. You can see why just an "average" game gets us to the total points we need but I am expecting much more than an "average" game here. The Lions had an ugly game on offense last week but Blough had been better at QB in his two prior games. Also, the Broncos were simply held back on offense by snowy conditions last week at Arrowhead Stadium. The over is 8-4 in the Lions last 12 games. The over was 4-1 in Denver's 5 games preceding last week's bad weather game. The over is 12-4 in Detroit's last 16 against AFC West opponents. 10* OVER the total in Denver

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #464 Sunday 8* Tennessee Titans (+) vs New Orleans Saints @ 1 ET - The Saints have been playing very well and I am well aware of the fact they are still motivated here in terms of playoff positioning in the NFC. However, the Titans motivation is even stronger as they are fighting for their playoff lives. Also, Tennessee is a home dog and I like catching New Orleans on short rest here plus, literally, out of their element as this is an outdoor game the running game may end up being of a little more importance here. The Titans have the stronger ground attack on offense, the home field edge, and they're catching as much a field goal in this one as a home dog. After falling just short versus Houston last week, look for the home team to respond in a big way this week. Also, after the Saints played so flawlessly well against the Colts on Monday Night Football, don't be surprised if we see a big drop-off here. Look for the Titans to grab the outright win to keep their playoff hopes alive. 8* TENNESSEE

AFC East Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #453 Saturday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (+) @ New England Patriots @ 4:30 ET - The Patriots crushed Cincinnati last week but it was thanks to 5 turnovers! The Bengals actually outgained New England in that game. Speaking of misleading scoreboard results, the Patriots won the first meeting with Buffalo this season but the Bills outgained New England by 151 yards and had more than twice as many first downs. The Patriots offense continues to struggle and the Bills are a high-quality football team that is just one game in back of the Pats in the AFC East. Buffalo is on an 11-4 ATS run and also 7-1 ATS run as a divisional away dog. Don't be surprised if the Bills get the outright upset here and, if they do fall short, look for it to be by only 3 or 4 points. Grab the points in this one. 10* BUFFALO

Monday Night Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #333 Monday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts (+) @ New Orleans Saints @ 8:15 ET - Both teams are off tight losses last week but the Saints are off an absolute war against the 49ers. In fact New Orleans did lose key players to injury including two starters on the defensive line both out for this game and likely for the season as well. While the Saints have already locked up their division and a playoff spot plus lost their best chance at home field edges in the post-season by losing to San Francisco last week, the Colts are fighting for their playoff lives. They should renewed spirits too as the Steelers loss to the Bills last night was good news for Indianapolis. Both Pittsburgh and Tennessee are 8-6 on the season and the Colts can move to 7-7 on the year with a win here. That would put them 1 game back of the other two teams fighting for the last wild card spot and this is with two games to go. Now I am not forecasting the outright upset here but I do feel the points being offered are very generous given the situation. Both teams are struggling on defense but those D-line injuries for the Saints move the needle a lit bit in favor of the Colts defense here. Also, the Indy offense could get a boost with TY Hilton returning at wide receiver tonight. I know that is not a certainty and the Colts are being coy about it but I am expect him not to miss a game like this. Tonight is Indy's season essentially. Of course I respect Drew Brees and the Saints offense tremendously but Indianapolis head coach Frank Reich is a great coach and will have his guys ready here. The Colts have 7 losses on the season but only ONE by more than 7 points! The Saints have 10 wins this season but only TWO by a double digit margin! I like the odds here in favor of a tight finish in this game. Look for this one to be decided by a single possession on the scoreboard. 10* INDIANAPOLIS

Sunday Night Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #321 Sunday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (+) @ Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:20 ET - The Steelers have won 7 of 8 games with the lone loss coming at Cleveland. However, many of those wins have been against bad teams. In fact the only team that Pittsburgh has beaten this season that currently has a winning record is the LA Rams. Note that the Steelers lost to high-quality teams like the Patriots, 49ers, Ravens and Seahawks. That said, with a 1-4 record against winning teams, the Steelers are in trouble here against a surging Bills team. I know Buffalo fell just short versus the Ravens last week but this is a very strong team that also has traveled well this season. The Bills are 5-1 SU in road games on the year. One certainly could question Buffalo's schedule as well but I like the fact that they played the Ravens very tough and also lost by just 6 to New England earlier this season when the Patriots offense was firing on all cylinders but the Bills defense stifled them. The Bills also did defeat the Titans at Tennessee. Of course this is a key battle in the playoff race and I feel the QB edge for the Bills here will prove to be huge. While the Steelers have been bouncing between Rudolph and Hodges at QB since Roethlisberger went out with injury, the Bills are set with Josh Allen under center. Allen has been even stronger on the road than at home this season. Away from home he has averaged 246.5 passing yards per game. Also, he has a 7-1 TD-INT ration in his last 5 road games. The Bills have the much better rushing offense in this match-up and that will help open up the passing attack for Buffalo downfield. The Bills have NOT had an ATS loss in any of their past 9 road games! Look for the Bills to improve to 4-0 ATS this season when off a SU loss. Pittsburgh, when they enter a game after having won 8 or more of last 10 games, has gone 1-6 ATS. Look for that trend to continue here as they are over-valued and the public money is pouring in on the Steelers. The sharp money, and ours, is on the other side! 10* BUFFALO

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #329 Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams (-) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - These teams are currently heading opposite directions and that is why the Rams are a "pick'em" here on the road at Dallas. The Cowboys simply are a mess right now and have lost all confidence. The fact they are at home is certainly not a big edge. Keep in mind, Dallas has covered just 2 times out of the last 11 times they have been a home favorite against an opponent from outside the division. Now I know this line is now near pick'em but you get the point. Cowboys haven't exactly excelled in terms of winning games at home against non-NFC East competition. Dallas has had a chance to lock up the NFC East for awhile as the Eagles continue to be saddled with injuries. However, the Cowboys have failed to do so as they have lost 3 straight games. Keep in mind this is a Dallas team that is only 3-7 SU since their 3-0 start to the year! The Cowboys are well known for struggling against top level competition and they are certainly facing that here. The Rams have won two straight games and 5 of their last 7 games. Recent wins over a potent offense (Seattle) and stout defense (Chicago) shows that the Rams can do something the Cowboys haven't been able to do this season - beat a high quality team. The Cowboys beat the Eagles but with Philly at 6-7 and struggling badly that is not so impressive. As it stands now Dallas doesn't have a single win over a team with a .500 or better record. In fact the other 5 wins the Cowboys have were against teams that all currently have 3 wins or less on the season! The Rams win over the Seahawks was critical and has kept LA in the playoff hunt. They will play with that same desperation here while the Cowboys will continue to find ways to lose. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS

Total of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #325 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Cardinals vs Cleveland Browns @ 4:05 ET - I am expecting quite the show in this one with two former OU quarterbacks squaring off against bad defenses. It is the Browns and Mayfield going against the Cardinals and Murray. Note that Cleveland is off a win last week against miserable Cincinnati but they were very fortunate on defense thanks to 3 turnovers. The Browns D actually gave up over 450 yards to the Bengals! Speaking of bad defense, the Cardinals D ranks as one of the (if not the) worst in the league! Arizona has given up 29 points per game on the season. By the way, the Browns have allowed an average of 25.4 points per game in their past 5 road games. I certainly would not be surprised to see this game get closer to 60 points than 50 points! When off a home win against a divisional opponent, the Browns are 3-0 to the over. Cleveland is also 3-0 to the over this season when facing a team with a losing record. Arizona's over is 2-0 when off consecutive home losses. Also, the over is 3-0 this season when the Cardinals are off a loss by a margin of 6 or less points. The Cards will bounce back on offense here against a struggling Cleveland defense but their own D will not be able to stop the Browns either. I am expecting huge performances from both Mayfield and Murray in this one. Scoreboard operator will be busy in this one...a very unique situation. 10* OVER the total in Arizona

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #313 Sunday 8* Houston Texans (+) @ Tennessee Titans @ 1 ET - Titans off a big win on the West Coast at Oakland. Coming back east after a trip out west is not the easiest trip to make for sure. Making matters even more challenging for Tennessee in this one is the fact that they're facing an angry Texans team here. It took Houston awhile to wake up in last week's game versus Denver (perhaps the Texans were looking ahead to this showdown) and, by the time they did get going, it was far too late. I like having the +3 on my side with the road dog in this one! Houston blasted the Titans in their second meeting last season and that makes this a revenge game for Tennessee. With the Texans off an ugly loss, note this stat entering this season for coach Bill O'Brien: 11-2 ATS when his team is off a SU/ATS loss and facing an opponent playing with revenge. Of course that system fits perfectly here and Houston is fired up after losing by double digits as a nearly double digit favorite last week! It was ugly! In the 4th quarter of a season (Games 13 through 16), Tennessee is 1-10 ATS when they enter a game off consecutive SU wins and are facing a team that is off a non-divisional game. Also, when the Titans are at home in divisional action and off a game in which they scored more than 35 points, they are 1-8 ATS! The above angles combine for a 29-4 ATS spot in favor of the Texans. I'll take it! 8* HOUSTON

Thursday Night NFL Total of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #301 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Ravens vs New York Jets @ 8:20 ET - The Jets secondary is banged up and that is bad news here. That's because the Ravens enter with the #1 rushing attack in the NFL thanks in large part to the running ability of QB Lamar Jackson. But if he can also attack downfield through the air that means this Jets defense is going to struggle all night long. Also, I don't see the Ravens taking their foot off the gas in this one as they are still highly motivated to lock up the #1 seed in the AFC post-season. Baltimore is off a "grinder" type game against the Bills in which both teams struggled to move the ball very well. That was in windy Buffalo and the Bills are known for their defense. The Jets have respectable numbers on defense this season too but they are banged up right now and I expect the Ravens to take advantage. At the same time I do expect the Jets offense to enjoy some success. Baltimore's defense has had to step up big against quality teams in recent weeks. Don't be surprised if there is a bit of a let up here as they now take on a weaker foe and on a short week. It is simply hard to maintain that high-level intensity and physicality in a situation like this and the Ravens were truly taken to the wire by the Bills last week. The Jets have won 4 of 5 games so they have some confidence in terms of moving the football and playing winning football. They'll score quite well here but I don't foresee New York being able to get many stops on defense. The Ravens are scoring an average of 35 points per game in their last 7 games. Also, the weather will be chilly but light winds and no precipitation in Baltimore tonight. A beautiful night for football. The Jets have won 4 of 5 games and scored an average of 31 points in the 4 victories. Look for a surprising number of points in this game and I see it soaring over the total. The over is 3-0 this season when the Jets are off consecutive ATS losses. The over is 6-1 in the Ravens last 7 games against AFC East opponents. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #160 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs New York Giants @ 8:15 ET - The Eagles have won 5 straight games against the Giants. Also, in games played in Philadelphia they have won 7 straight games against New York. The Eagles are 4-1 in Monday Night games under head coach Doug Pederson. The Giants enter this game having lost 8 in a row and now have to go back to Eli Manning at QB as rookie QB Daniel Jones is injured. Manning struggled badly early this season and that is why New York turned to Jones and a look at the future. Of course Manning and company would love to play the role of spoiler here but he is likely to be rusty seeing his first game action since September and Philly enters this game angry and with plenty of motivation. Philadelphia has lost 3 straight games but keep in mind two of those defeats came against a pair of teams (Patriots and Seahawks) that entered this weeks's action with identical 10-2 records on the season. The loss to the Dolphins last week was, however, inexcusable and I expect the Eagles defense to stand up strong after that horrific effort at Miami. Note that Philadelphia is 10-1 ATS when they are off a SU loss as a non-divisional favorite and now facing a divisional foe that is off a SU loss. Of course with the Eagles ugly loss as a big favorite at Miami coupled with the Giants 8th straight SU loss last week, that 91% system fits perfectly here. The Eagles were a double digit favorite last week and lost outright to the Dolphins as Miami hung 37 points on them. That is noteworthy here as the Giants are 2-12 ATS when they face a divisional foe that is off an ATS loss by a double digit margin in a game in which they allowed more than 35 points. As you can see here we have a pair of systems combining for 22-3 (88%) ATS mark favoring the Eagles and going against New York. The points are big but Philly can tie Dallas for 1st place in the NFC East with a win here (and they face the Cowboys in two weeks too) so the highly motivated Eagles are very likely to dominate the hapless Giants here. Lay it! 10* PHILADELPHIA

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #158 Sunday 8* Los Angeles Rams (+) vs Seattle Seahawks @ 8:20 ET - The Rams and Seahawks met earlier this season in Seattle and the line was nearly identical to today's line. What that means today is that we're getting some fantastic value considering this game is being played at Los Angeles. The line should have swung at least 6 points considering the 3 points (at least) of value given to teams based on home field. Of course the reason the line did not move at all is because the Seahawks are undefeated on the road this season and everyone is enamored with Seattle right now while a lot of people are very down on the Rams this season because they have had ups and downs. The result in a spot like this is superb value and I won't hesitate to get involved here. The Seahawks did have a very impressive road win at San Francisco in OT this season but the other 5 wins have come against teams with a combined record of 23-36-1 on the season. The Rams have some swagger back after the blowout road win at Arizona last week. Also, Los Angeles has faced a very tough home slate as 4 of their 5 games thus far in LA have been against teams with a combined record of 37-12! The result here is that the Rams are perceived to be a weaker team than they really are. The fact is that their schedule has been brutal and they could finish the season very strong and still make the playoffs. They have their work cut out for them but a win here is critical to keeping the hopes alive. After falling just short at Seattle by a single point in the first meeting, look for them to get revenge here. The Rams strength on offense is the passing attack and the Seahawks are one of the worst teams in the league defending the pass. Look for the LA aerial attack to key the victory in this NFC West showdown. The Rams have the rest edge here too since the Seahawks played on Monday night. 8* LOS ANGELES RAMS

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #151 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 4:25 ET - The Chiefs have had one low-scoring game on offense this season. Kansas City was held to 13 points by Indianapolis. In their other 11 games this season, the Chiefs have scored an average of 30.5 points per game! The Patriots offense has struggled recently but watch them have a breakout game on Sunday at home. The weather is going to be cold but clear skies and light winds. Temperatures just above freezing means the weather conditions are really not all that bad by December standards for Massachusetts. That being said, the Patriots offense is going to take advantage of a Chiefs defense that ranks among the worst in the NFL. I know they have allowed few points in their past two games but last week's effort against the Raiders was turnover-driven and KC's prior game was played on a questionable field in Mexico and unique circumstances. Now the Chiefs defense is on the road and facing a Patriots offense known for huge games at home. New England averaged 31.3 points per game in their first 4 home games this season prior to being held in check by Dallas in the Pats most recent game at Foxboro. The Patriots vaunted defense has allowed 28 points or more in 2 of its last 4 games. That said, Mahomes and company (Chiefs have one of the top offenses in the NFL) certainly will provide a challenge to that defense as well. The over is 14-2 the last 16 times that the Chiefs are on the road against a non-divisional AFC foe! Look for that trend to continue here. 10* OVER the total in New England

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #132 Sunday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (+) vs Baltimore Ravens @ 1 ET - The Bills have the home field edge here plus the rest edge here as they played Thanksgiving Day at Dallas. The Ravens are off a physical battle with the 49ers Sunday in Baltimore and now must go on the road knowing they have a short week ahead too as their next game is Thursday! This is a really tough spot for the Ravens and I am happy to grab the Bills catching nearly a full +7 here as a home dog. Buffalo has played very well this season and they also have had this game circled after the Ravens introduced them to the 2018 season with a 47-3 beating at Baltimore last September. Buffalo would like a little payback at home in this one. Baltimore is 10-2 on the season but, keep in mind, the Bills are 9-3 on the season and two of Buffalo's 3 losses have come by 6 or less points. The Ravens certainly have been red hot but note that the Bills are 3-0 SU and ATS their last 3 games. Baltimore is 1-9 ATS the last 10 times they have faced a non-division opponent off B2B SU/ATS wins. That system fits in this one and I look for the home dog Bills to cash in here. They have a great shot at the outright upset and if they do fall short I expect it to be by a field goal or less. 10* BUFFALO

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #102 Thursday 10* Top Play Chicago Bears (+) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - The Cowboys have lost 3 of their past 4 games. The Bears have won 3 of their past 4 games. Chicago is also on a 10-5 ATS run in its last 15 home games. We're down to the clutch time of the season...the final quarter...the final 4 games of the regular season. Dallas, in Games 13 through 16 of a season, has gone 1-13 ATS when off a SU/ATS non-divisional loss and facing a team playing with revenge. Keep in mind, the Cowboys lost outright as a favorite to the Bills on Thanksgiving and also the Bears have revenge from the most recent meeting between these teams in 2016 so that system is fully in play here. Also, in the final quarter of a season, the Cowboys are 2-13 ATS when they have a losing record and are playing on the road. Now I know Dallas is at .500 on the season but the point is that you can see from that stat that the Cowboys aren't known for being stalwarts when having a mediocre or losing season and playing on the road late in the season. The Bears certainly hold the momentum edge here with wins in 3 of 4 while Dallas has losses in 3 of 4. Chicago is 7-1 ATS when off B2B SU wins and facing an NFC opponent. The Bears have held 5 of 6 opponents to 17 points or less at Soldier Field this season. The Cowboys have allowed 18 points or more in 4 of their 6 road games this season. I understand why Dallas is favored as market perception carries a lot of weight with the betting masses but I expect the Bears to win this outright and will gladly grab the added insurance of having them plus a field goal as a home dog here. 10* CHICAGO

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #475 Monday 10* Top Play Minnesota Vikings (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 8:15 ET - Something seems a little "off" with this one at first glance and that is why the public is hammering Seattle but, in typical contrarian fashion, I am on the other side here. The Seahawks opened up as a 1.5 point favorite even though there are a number of factors that would have suggested they should be a much bigger favorite at home. Sure enough the betting markets have pushed the line on Seattle to as high as a -3 but don't be fooled by all this. The odds makers set the line this way for a reason. I am aware that the Vikings have a recent history of struggling after bye weeks and Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins often struggles in night games. However, this line was set like this for a reason and I am backing the Vikings here. Keep in mind, the Seahawks are only 3-2 SU at home this season and one of the wins came in OT while the other two victories each came by just a single point! What that means is that in ALL 5 home games this season, when the clock hit zeroes in regulation, Seattle has NEVER been on top by more than ONE point! As for the Vikings, they are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games and the only loss came by just 3 points. Also, 4 of those 7 games were on the road. Now you understand the line a little better and also you can see the reasoning as to why I am going with a top play here on the road dog plus the points! 10* MINNESOTA

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #474 Sunday 8* Houston Texans (+) vs New England Patriots @ 8:20 ET - The Patriots don't lose often but, when they do, it tends to be on the road and facing a tough team. This one fits the bill in that regard and I like having the Texans getting +3.5 here as a home dog. Houston is 4-1 SU this season at home and this looks like a great spot for a struggling Patriots offense to not be able to do enough to get the road cover. The Texans should be able to put enough points on the board here to outscore the slumbering Pats offense. New England has scored an average of just 16.7 points per game their last 3 games. The NE defense has allowed 23.5 points per game in their past two road games. The Texans have averaged scoring 33.3 points per game in their last 3 games played in Houston. In Texans games played at home or a neutral site (London), their defense has allowed an average of just 17.3 points per game. Houston won last week against Indianapolis SU but it was an ATS loss. When the Texans are off a non-covering SU win they are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS the next week. After falling just short for their backers last week, look for the Texans to make up for that here and improve the aforementioned marks to 5-0 SU and ATS. Again, I know it is always tough to go against Belichick and Brady and the Patriots but this the right time and place to do just that. 8* HOUSTON

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #461 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Chiefs vs Oakland Raiders @ 4:25 ET - I am well aware of the weather conditions at Arrowhead Stadium for this one. No precipitation expected but winds of 15 to 20 mph and temperatures near freezing. This weather has helped bring this total down from mid-50s to the upper-40s and I don't expect many defensive stops in this one. The wind certainly can have some impact on the game but I like the fact that we can fade two really bad defenses here and lets not forget that much of the passing game in today's NFL is quick, short passes that are set up to allow for big yardage after the catch. It is not so much about trying to be super accurate with long passes downfield. Also, don't be surprised if the Raiders offense enjoys success on the ground here as the Chiefs rushing defense ranks among the worst in the NFL. As for the Oakland defense they particularly struggle against the pass and the Kansas City passing attack ranks among the best in the league. I also like the fact that both QBs are off sub-par games. Look for Mahomes to be much better after the bye week and look for Carr to bounce back after he and his teammates clearly overlooked the Jets last week and they paid for it by being handed an ugly loss. The over is a long-term 4-1 when Oakland is off a game in which they were a favorite but lost outright by 21 or more points. Also, the over is 3-1 this season when the Raiders are a road dog. The over is a perfect 4-0 this season when the Chiefs are facing a team with a winning record. The weather is not ideal but it is not going to effect these offenses as much as many are thinking it will. 10* OVER the total in Kansas City

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #467 Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams (-) @ Arizona Cardinals @ 4:05 ET - QB Jared Goff has struggled badly in recent games but this has included facing tough defenses like the Ravens, Bears, Steelers and what started all this was a nightmare game against the tough defense of the Niners. Mixed into this stretch was a game against the Bengals and, of course, Goff took advantage of that. The point is that level of competition is an important factor when evaluating performance and I look for Goff (and the Rams) to get back up off the mat in a big way in this game. Yes LA is on the road for this one and on a short week but a road trip from Los Angeles to Arizona is not much of a road trip at all! The Cardinals are off their bye week but QB Kyler Murray is still bothered by a hamstring injury. The Cards are better this season than they've been in recent seasons but this is still an Arizona team that has won just 3 of its 11 games this season and that has been blasted by the Rams in recent meetings. Los Angeles has won the last 4 meetings by a combined score of 130 to 25. Keep in mind, LA is in an angry mood too after being embarrassed by Baltimore on Monday night football. In other words, they are not going to let up here and I look for a huge road win and will gladly take advantage of the line move here which has pushed the Rams down to as low as a 2.5 point favorite in this one. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #472 Sunday 8* Pittsburgh Steelers (+) vs Cleveland Browns @ 1 ET - With the injuries the Steelers have heading into this week plus the switch from Rudolph to Hodges at QB, the whole world is jumping on Cleveland in this one. I'll gladly play contrarian here and grab the extra value now being offered to Pittsburgh in this divisional match-up. Watch the Steelers respond to the QB move this week as everyone ups their game on both sides of the ball. You often see this when a QB switch happens and let us not forget that Pittsburgh is at home for this game. The Steelers tend to play tougher at home and this is a defense that has allowed an average of just 15.9 points per game their past 8 games. Pittsburgh is 4-2 SU at home this season their two losses as a host came by a TOTAL of just 5 points with one coming in OT against the Ravens. This is a revenge game for the Steelers after losing at Cleveland two weeks ago. Payback time here and I'll gladly grab the points with a team that is very tough to beat at home. 8* PITTSBURGH

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #307 Thursday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:30 ET - The Bills are 8-3 this season and their defense has been great. All the pressure is on the Cowboys in this one. Keep in mind the Patriots, as usual, have a stranglehold on the top of the AFC East division but the Bills are in great shape in terms of a Wild Card spot because every other Wild Card contender has 5 losses already. As for the Cowboys, the only way to make the playoffs (most likely) is by winning the division and Dallas has the Eagles just one game in back of them even though Philadelphia is dealing with a ton of injuries and seemingly trying to hand the division to Dallas. The Cowboys simply haven't taken advantage of the situation and coach Jason Garrett is on the hot seat. Again, all the pressure here is on Dallas to perform at home and I love the Bills here as a big underdog after their dominating effort on defense versus Denver. Buffalo has just 3 losses this season and 2 of those came by 6 or less points. The Cowboys have lost 5 of their past 8 games. Dallas certainly is familiar with playing on Thanksgiving Day but that hasn't helped their results at the betting window. The Cowboys are on a 1-7 ATS run in Thanksgiving games and the only cover was a fortunate one as they beat the Redskins by 8 last year as a 7.5 point favorite. They won't be so fortunate here. Dallas has failed to cover 2 of last 3 at home and the Bills are undefeated ATS in their 5 road games this season at 4-0-1 ATS. The Cowboys are 6-11 ATS against teams with a winning record including 1-3 ATS (0-4 SU!) this season! 10* BUFFALO

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL 8* Detroit Lions (+) vs Chicago Bears @ 12:30 ET - With the Lions starting QB David Blough (undrafted rookie out of Purdue) at QB in this one, the markets have jumped all over the Bears. Certainly I understand that but this has gone too far. In typical contrarian fashion here I am going with the underdog that nobody wants. The Lions outgained the Redskins by 134 yards last week but lost due to a 4-2 turnover deficit last week. The Bears yardage edge (92) against the Giants was less than that of Detroit's edge but the markets aren't really looking at that. The markets also aren't looking at the fact that the Lions outgained Chicago by 131 yards in their prior meeting earlier this season even though they lost the game by 7 points. That game was less than 3 weeks ago and was a "phony final" as you can see by the yardage stats. The fact is that the Lions D has been solid in each of its last two road games but they did get embarrassed in their most recent home game. They'll want to make up for that here on Thanksgiving and I expect them to do just that. Let's not forget that the Bears are just 2-5 SU in their last 7 games and one of the victories was a 7 point win in the game they were outgained substantially by the Lions and the other was just a 5-point win over a bad Giants team last week. Look for Detroit, even with Blough at QB, to be in this one all the way. When Chicago enters a game after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, they have gone 2-5 ATS the last 7! The Lions are 8-3 ATS when, in the 2nd half of a season, they are facing a team with a losing record. 8* DETROIT

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Monday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams (+) vs Baltimore Ravens @ 8:15 ET - The odds makers were completely unaware that the Ravens have been playing better than the Rams this season so they set the odds at a pick'em in this one. I am kidding of course but you can see where I am going with this one. This game opened up with Baltimore as a picks and now the line is up to as high as a -4 as of very early game day morning even though this match-up is at Los Angeles. In typical contrarian fashion I am going against the move here as I back LA in this one. The Rams strength on offense is the pass game and the Ravens weakness on defense is against the pass. Baltimore's strength on offense is the run game while the Rams strength on defense is against the run. Per the above and the fact I am getting more than a field goal with a quality home team, I like the dog in this one! The Rams have allowed just 11 points per game in their last 4 games while the Ravens have allowed 21 points per game in their last 4 road games. The Rams defense is not getting enough respect here and don't be surprised if their passing attack does some solid damage here on offense in this one. 10* LOS ANGELES 

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #271 Sunday 8* Green Bay Packers (+) @ San Francisco 49ers @ 8:20 ET - The Niners are a little banged up and have covered just once in their last five games! Last week San Francisco was fortunate to even beat Arizona as the final margin of victory of 10 points was very deceiving. If anything that helped to give us some line value here because truly Green Bay has played the tougher schedule this season and also comes in rested off a bye week. They are also "out for blood" a bit in this road game. I say that because even though the Packers are off a home win, it was their most recent road effort that really had QB Aaron Rodgers fired up. That was also on the west coast and it was a 26-11 loss at Los Angeles at the hands of the Chargers. Rest assured Rodgers and the coaching staff have been reminding the team of that ugly road effort as they have now had two weeks to prepare for this game and they don't want to repeat that. The Packers were a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS in road games this season before the debacle at LA. San Francisco is certainly a very strong team but they truly are a little over-rated and with the injuries they have and the fact that this situation sets up so well for the road dog, I am grabbing the points with Green Bay. The Packers have failed to cover just twice the last thirteen times they are off a bye week! San Francisco has just 6 ATS wins the last 21 times they have been a home favorite. Niners head coach Kyle Shanahan is doing a great job here but note that he is 2-11 ATS when at home and off a game in which the 49ers scored 22 or more points. A lot of systems, angles, situational value all pointing the way of the road team in this one. 8* GREEN BAY

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #267 Sunday 10* Top Play Jacksonville Jaguars (+) @ Tennessee Titans @ 4:05 ET - Jacksonville got blown out by 20 points last week but Nick Foles returned at QB and will be even sharper in his second game back. Tennessee is off a bye week but the Titans got a miracle comeback win over the Chiefs prior to the bye. This is the type of a situation where a team often struggles and Tennessee also has failed to cover 5 of its last 6 divisional games. The Jags come in fired up off an ugly loss and Jacksonville did have a bye the prior week so they are in pretty good shape here from a health standpoint. Tennessee is playing with revenge here from a loss at Jacksonville earlier this season when Minshew was at QB. However, this Titans defeat simply continued their recurring pattern of struggling in divisional games. Also, there is a reason Tennessee opened up as only 2.5 point favorites when lines first came out on this game. They since rose to as high as a 4 and I love fading the moves in situations just like this one. By the way, the Titans are 1-9 ATS in games 9 through 12 of a season when they are off a home game. Watch that big win over the Chiefs leave Tennessee a bit flat in this one and Foles and the Jaguars are coming off hungry after getting blasted at Indianapolis. Remember that is now back to back ugly defeats for Jacksonville (also lost in London two weeks ago) and the Jaguars are 7-2 ATS in games 9 through 12 of a season when they are off a loss that came by a double digit margin both SU and ATS. 10* JACKSONVILLE

Total of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #263 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 1 ET - The Falcons are off B2B divisional wins at New Orleans and Carolina and they have another match-up with the first-place Saints in just a few days on Thanksgiving Day. Now, of course I realize this match-up is also a divisional game but the fact is that New Orleans is leading the division and I would not be surprised to see the Falcons defense have a bit of a letdown after their two preceding big road wins and plus having a huge game on deck. Also, just how good was the Atlanta defense last week? Yes they forced 4 turnovers but they entered that game having forced only 4 turnovers on the season. I am not yet fully sold on this Falcons defense and they did allow nearly 300 passing yards last week. Bucs QB Jameis Winston is off an ugly game and he is known for bouncing back after big INT games. He threw four in last week's loss and I expect him to respond here. The Buccaneers and Falcons are known for getting into shootouts. Last season each match-up totaled over 60 points and that makes it 5 of the last 6 meetings having totaled at least 54 points. More of the same here. The strength of each of these teams on offense is the passing game and both teams weakness on defense is against the pass. That said, and considering that Tampa Bay has allowed at least 27 points in 8 straight games, you can see why I like the over so much in this one. Also, this total dropped to as low as 51 after opening up as high as 54.5 when lines first game out. The Buccaneers have allowed 35 points per game their last 8 games and are about a 4 point dog here. A 35-31 Falcons win here sounds about right. This should fly over by double digits. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #109 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts @ 8:20 ET - Injuries to the offense always tend to grab more attention for the public in comparison with injuries to the defense. That said, both these teams are quite banged up on the defensive side of the ball and I am looking for plenty of points in this one. The Texans have stayed under the total in 3 straight games but this is very surprising and it is a trend that will reverse because their offense ranks right around #7 this season but their defense ranks around #26 out of 32 teams. Houston lost at Indianapolis earlier this season and also got knocked out of the playoffs by Colts last season. The over is 30-17 when the Texans are playing with road loss revenge. The over is 38-21 when Indianapolis is off a home stretch of two straight games. They off a big home win versus Jacksonville and the Colts have scored 24 points or more in 5 of their last 8 games. Their game earlier this season versus Houston saw the teams combine for over 600 passing yards! The Texans are off a beatdown at Baltimore and have allowed 24 points or more in 5 of their last 6 games. The Colts should get at least 24 here and so will the Texans as they bounce back in my opinion. That said, I am forecasting this game to get into the fifties. 10* OVER the total in Houston

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #476 Monday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers (+) vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:15 ET - This is a neutral site game as it is being played at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, Mexico. Considering the fact it is a neutral site and that Chiefs Andy Reid continues to be the worst late game manager in NFL history, I am happy to back the Chargers here. Kansas City lost at Tennessee last week partially because they have defensive breakdowns in critical moments but also because if Reid was smarter about play-calling to close out games the Titans would not have even had the ball to have a chance to win the game. Reid has had issues with this since his days in Philadelphia and that is part of the reason the Eagles finally won a Super Bowl AFTER he was shown the door! The point I am making here though is that it is hard to lay points with him unless it is a game that is destined to be an absolute blowout and I certainly don't see that being the case here. Everyone is on Kansas City here and, in typical contrarian fashion, I am on the other side. Chargers QB Rivers is off a rare poor game and he'll be ready to bounce back here. At the same time, this is a Chiefs defense that gave up over 200 yards on the ground last week and that means LA can do some damage here on the ground which will further open up things for Rivers to attack downfield through the air. Under head coach Anthony Lynn, the Chargers are 9-2 ATS when facing a team off an outright upset loss. That system is in play here as the Chiefs lost outright as a 6 point favorite over the Titans last week. We are getting close to the stretch run of the season and note the following stat when Kansas City is playing in games 9 through 12 of a season. When KC has a winning record and is favored over a team that is coming off an away game, the Chiefs have gone 1-8 ATS! Not only where the Chargers at Oakland last week, their game was on Thursday (while KC played on Sunday at Tennessee) so LA does have a rest edge for this game also. 10* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #474 Sunday 8* Los Angeles Rams (-) vs Chicago Bears @ 8:20 ET - The Rams are off a loss but simply came out of their bye week with their timing off and they delivered a dud at Pittsburgh. From a yardage standpoint the teams were nearly even but Los Angeles was done in by turnovers. While LA was on the road last week, the Bears were at home and they got the win over the Lions. However, Chicago was outgained in that game and the Bears are simply not a very good football team right now. This week Chicago now goes on the road and I feel we've got great value here with the Rams at home. LA of course is much better than they showed last week plus they are at home and also playing this game with revenge from last year's last season loss that the Bears handed Los Angeles. That was just the 2nd loss of the Rams season last year and also came on Sunday night. LA, undoubtedly, has not forgotten and gets payback under the lights tonight. The Bears defense has not been as strong as it was last season, particularly against the pass. The strength of the Rams offense is the passing game. Good match-up for LA here in that regard. As for Chicago's offense, they rank among the worst in the league. Coming back to the Bears pass defense too, note that they allowed over 275 passing yards to a back-up QB in last week's fortunate win. In terms of system support here, Chicago entered this season on an 0-8 ATS run when on the road in a non-divisional game as a dog of 7 or less points facing a team that is off an upset loss as a favorite. That system fits here with the Rams off the loss as a 4-point fave at Pittsburgh last week. Including playoff games too, LA is on a 10-4 ATS run extending back to the final two games of last year's regular season. Once again, the Rams will bounce back with a cover after an ATS loss last week. 8* LOS ANGELES RAMS

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #470 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs New England Patriots @ 4:25 ET - Both teams enter this week off a bye week last week. First off I am going to talk about the always good but always over-hyped Patriots. While it is true that New England blew out Pittsburgh in Week 1 of this season lets talk about what has happened since then. The Patriots have played 8 games since then and 6 of them were wins by 14 points or more. The other two were games the Pats lost ATS. More on the latter in the moment but lets first talk about all those "tough" teams that New England faced in those 6 big wins. Here is their current record of each of the teams they faced week by week: 2-7, 2-7, 1-8, 2-8, 1-8, 3-6. Noticing a pattern here? The Pats took care of business a lot but they faced trash a lot! So how about those other two games? The Patriots barely got by the Bills and did NOT cover and then two weeks ago New England got absolutely dominated by the Ravens. Notice this pattern? When Mr Brady and Mr Belichick have to step up and face a formidable opponent things suddenly change. The Eagles beat a MUCH tougher Patriots team to win the Super Bowl in Feb of 2018 and so this Pats team is much more susceptible to what the Eagles bring to the table here and this game is NOT at a neutral site. The Philadelphia schedule has been much tougher than the Patriots schedule has been. The Eagles have faced 5 tough teams in their last 6 games and 4 of those teams have a combined record of 26-12 on the season! The Eagles run defense ranks among the best in the NFL and the Patriots, despite facing a mostly cupcake schedule, rank in the bottom 3rd of the NFL for running the ball. That said, when a team struggles to run the ball their offense of course becomes more predictable and you know The Linc is going to be rocking for this game and I expect the Philly defense to bring a huge game here. This is just the 2nd home game the Eagles have had in the past 6 weeks! Look for the Patriots to drop to 0-3 ATS on the season when they are on the road and facing a team with a winning record. The Eagles are 3-1 SU at home this season and many will be looking for the Pats to bounce back here after that ugly loss at Baltimore two weeks ago. However, Philadelphia is off B2B wins and has moved back into a first-place tie in the NFC East so they are "feeling it" again and check out the following stat. The Eagles are 8-0 ATS when off a SU win and facing a non-divisional foe with a winning percentage of .667 or greater that is off a SU/ATS loss. That PERFECT system fits here. Also, under head coach Doug Pederson, the Eagles are 10-3 ATS when they enter a game with a winning record on the season and they are an underdog against a non-divisional foe. Also, under Pederson, the Eagles are 9-3 ATS when they enter a game off B2B SU/ATS wins. In games 9 through 12 of a season, Philly is 10-2 ATS when off a SU/ATS win and facing a team that is off an outright upset loss as a favorite. New England, in regular season games, is now on an 0-5 ATS streak when they are on the road and facing a team that has a .500 record or better. The Eagles should win this outright but I am happy to grab the points as added insurance here. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #452 Saturday 8* Detroit Lions (+) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 1 ET - Lions back-up QB Driskel actually played quite well in last week's loss at Chicago. In fact, Detroit outgained Chicago significantly in the loss and Driskel threw for 269 yards. The Cowboys are also off a loss last week as they fell short against the Vikings. Dallas, of course, would love to right the ship on the road here but the Cowboys already have lost on the road to a team like the Jets. Also, when Dallas lost to the Saints in New Orleans earlier this season, NO wasn't playing that well at the times as they had just recently lost Brees to injury at that point. As you can see, I am not that impressed with a Dallas team that had a chance to get a stranglehold on the NFC East division but has proven time and time again that they are not ready to make the jump to being an elite team. Again, the Cowboys now face a road test in a game they are expected to win but we have seen how these have gone before. The line on this game opened at less than a TD but has now risen to as high as a 7.5 as of early gameday morning and let us not forget that Dallas also has a major road test with the 8-1 Patriots on deck. Certainly, the Cowboys could overlook a 3-5-1 Lions team. Solid system here favors the underdog as Detroit entered this season 11-1 ATS when facing a non-division opponent off an outright upset loss as a favorite. That system fits here as the Cowboys were favored by 3 over the Vikings last week but lost outright. Dallas is 1-2 both SU and ATS in their last 3 road games. Perhaps they do notch the SU win here but I fully expect it to be by 7 points or less if that is the case. That said, the Lions have a great shot at the outright upset here and, of course, an even greater shot at getting at least a cover. 8* DETROIT

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #309 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:20 ET - The Browns allowed just 16 points in last week's tight win over Buffalo. However, Cleveland entered that game having allowed 24 points or more in 5 straight games. The Steelers allowed just 12 points in their big win versus the Rams last week but they have allowed an average of 25 points per game in their 3 road games this season. Certainly they have a respectable defense but it will be tested more over the stretch run of the season as this begins a stretch of 5 road games out of their final 7 games of the season. Pittsburgh has been fortunate to have a home-heavy schedule thus far this season. Cleveland's last 5 divisional games have seen 4 of the 5 go over the total. Also, in terms of meetings between the Browns and Steelers, 4 of the last 5 have gone over the total. Pittsburgh has allowed an average of 317 passing yards per game in road games this season! Cleveland allowed 32 points per game at home this season before holding the Bills in check but Buffalo did have success through the air against them and that is not a big surprise as the Browns are allowing 254 passing yards per game at home this season. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #273 Monday 10* Top Play Seattle Seahawks (+) @ San Francisco 49ers @ 8:15 ET - The Seahawks SU record in primetime games under Pete Carroll is an incredible 27-5 with one tie. They have also won 80% of their Monday night games with Carroll as they've been victorious in eight of ten. Of course it looks enticing to back the undefeated 49ers and lay less than a TD but in typical contrarian fashion I am grabbing the points here. I feel Seattle has a great shot at the upset here and that means great value in this one. Though the Seahawks kicker has been less than stellar this season, note that the San Francisco kicking situation could be even worse off here as they have injury concerns. In a game projected to be a rather tight back and forth divisional battle, don't be surprised if the kicking game plays a role here and Seattle actually holds the edge here based on the Robbie Gould injury situation as he has been downgraded to doubtful for this one. Keep in mind, other than the Niners huge win over the Panthers two weeks ago, their other 3 games since mid-October have seen them score an average of just 19 points per game. San Francisco is 6-13 ATS as a home favorite while the Seahawks enter this game having covered 5 in a row as a divisional road dog! In fact, Seattle enters this game with a perfect 4-0 SU record on the road this season too! The Seahawks are scoring an average of 28.5 points per game away from home this season. Seattle's D had a poor game last week but clearly they were looking ahead to this game. Also, the Seahawks strength on D is their rushing defense and the Niners strength on offense is the ground game so this one sets up well for the Seattle D to have a bounce back game in a key divisional showdown. The Seahawks can move within a half game of the division lead by winning this game and they have a bye on deck so they're definitely going the full sixty in this game. Great underdog value in this one. 10* SEATTLE 

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #271 Sunday 8* Minnesota Vikings (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - Nice set up here for a defensive-minded road dog. The Vikings are off a tough loss at Kansas City as they lost on a 44 yard field goal as time expired. Minnesota is on regular rest here while the Cowboys are on short rest. Even though Dallas is at home for this one, keep in mind they were in East Rutherford, NJ on Monday night taking on the Giants. That was not only a divisional win for the Cowboys, it also was more of a hard fought win than what the final score would indicate as it was a 1-point game heading to the 4th quarter. One thing I like about fading Dallas here is that they have truly struggled outside the division against better teams. Keep in mind the only two times they've really been tested in a non-divisional game this season they lost at New Orleans and then followed that up by losing at home to the Packers. In terms of some ATS support here. Dallas, is 2-7 ATS in their first game after facing the Giants. Also, the Cowboys are 0-7 ATS when off a Monday night game. Under Jason Garrett, the Cowboys are 2-10 ATS when they are favored off a divisional game and facing a team with a winning record. The Cowboys beat MIke Zimmer and his Vikings in Minnesota in 2016 in their most recent meeting. In games 9 through 12 of a season, when the Vikings are off a SU loss and playing with revenge they are 10-2 ATS! Entering this season the Vikings under Mike Zimmer were also 11-2 ATS when facing an opponent off a double digit ATS cover. Before their tight loss at KC last week, the Vikes had won 4 straight games all by double digits! 8* MINNESOTA

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #270 Sunday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (+) vs Los Angeles Rams @ 4:25 ET - Great spot for a home dog here. So far the teams that have played in London this season, entering this week, have gone 0-4 ATS. Yes, even though those teams get a bye week after the trip to London it still seems to take a lot out of them. Not only have they gone 0-4 ATS they have also gone 0-4 SU with the average margin of defeat being 18 points! Now I am not saying that the Steelers are going to steamroll the Rams just because of those numbers but what I am saying is that Pittsburgh is going to be a very tough home dog in this spot and I expect the Rams to be less than 100% here just like the Bears, Raiders, Buccaneers and Panthers were after their bye week that followed their London trips. The Steelers have plenty of momentum here as they have won 3 straight games and 4 of their last 5. In fact, since a season opening loss to the Patriots, Pittsburgh has not been blown out in any of their games. After the embarrassing loss at New England, the Steelers have gone 4-3 and the 3 losses have come by an average of 3 points with no margin of defeat more than 4 points. You can see why I am liking the points here! Also, Los Angeles enters this game off back to back blowout wins but those victories came against Atlanta and Cincinnati. Those two teams have a combined ONE win between them this season. That is note worthy here because, prior to that, the Rams had lost 3 straight games (2 of the games against tougher competition) and Pittsburgh is certainly no slouch.  The Steelers have covered 14 of last 18 as a home dog and 5 of last 6 in non-conference games. 10* PITTSBURGH

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #263 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Green Bay Packers vs Carolina Panthers @ 4:25 ET - The Packers are off a disappointing road loss at Los Angeles against the Chargers. However, Green Bay is now back at home and has a bye week on deck. To say the Packers are going to go "all out" here doesn't even fully describe just how strong of a performance I am expecting from the GB offense in this one. That coupled with the fact that their defense ranks among the worst in the NFL is why I am backing the over big in this one. The over is 12-2 the last 14 times the Packers have hosted an NFC South team. Also, Carolina allowed only 20 points at home last week but they were fortunate as the Panthers gave up 431 yards in that game but benefited from 3 turnovers. Carolina gave up over 300 yards passing that game and their run defense is among the worst in the NFL. For that matter, so too is the Packers. So if both defenses have to respect the run here that, in turn, opens up great opportunities in the passing game. The Panthers offense has been resurgent under QB Kyle Allen since he took for Cam Newton. Of course Aaron Rodgers has been huge again for the Packers this season. Of course is it mid-November and it is Wisconsin so the weather is going to be cold this afternoon but it will not be brutal. Also, no precipitation expected and winds in the 10 to 15 mph range means weather should not have an impact on this game. Another strong O/U stat in addition to the 12-2 mentioned above is that Carolina is 13-1 to the over when they are on the road and facing a team with a winning percentage of .651 or greater. Combined edge of 25-3 here in terms of systems favoring the over and I will take it as I expect both teams to struggle to get stops in this one. 10* OVER the total in Green Bay

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #252 Sunday 8* Tennessee Titans (+) vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 1 ET - Mahomes is back this week at QB for the Chiefs but, undoubtedly, there will be some rust. Also, a start on the road at Tennessee is not exactly the top choice a QB would have either. The Titans defense is certainly a respectable one and the entire team is coming into this one with their ears pinned back. Tennessee is off a 10-point loss at Carolina last week despite the fact they outgained the Panthers by 61 yards. Kansas City is off a home win versus the Vikings that came on a game-winning 44-yard field goal. It was a hard-fought win, to say the least, and now the Chiefs are on the road this week. We have reached the 2nd half of the season and in games 9 through 12 of a season, when KC has a winning record and is favored against an opponent that is coming off a road game, the Chiefs have gone 1-7 ATS! The Titans, when facing an opponent with a winning percentage of .601 or greater that is off an ATS win, have gone 8-1 ATS! Motivation off a loss, home field, and the Titans are catching a rusty Mahomes at QB as he will be adjusting after all that time off. 8* TENNESSEE

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #107 Thursday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers (-) @ Oakland Raiders @ 8:20 ET - The Chargers have won 4 straight meetings with the Raiders and the last 3 wins have come by an average margin of victory of 16.7 points. The strength of the Los Angeles offense is the passing game and the weakness of the Raiders defense is defending the pass. This is not a good match-up for Oakland as a result and they continue to be banged up along the offensive line too. The Chargers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games and they were at home last week against Green Bay so this is not a bad trouble situation for LA considering they are just heading up the coast in California for this one. The Raiders have the worst pass defense in this league and their passing attack on offense ranks just "middle of the pack" on the season. The Raiders are the better team on the ground but in the pass-happy NFL, it is often the aerial attack that keys victories. The Chargers pass defense ranks 5th in the league and their pass offense ranks 6th in the league. The Raiders are just 2-8 SU in their last 10 divisional games and this line is right around a pick'em. In other words, the SU winner is likely the ATS winner as well! Oakland is off a big win (and cover) versus Detroit last week and that is noteworthy here in this AFC West match-up. In a divisional game the Raiders are 0-12 ATS when they are off a SU/ATS win and facing an opponent that is off a non-divisional game. That system fits here as the Chargers hosted Green Bay last week. Also, in games 9 through 12 of a season, Oakland is 1-8 ATS when off a SU win and facing an opponent that is off an ATS cover by double digits. LA absolutely rolled the Packers last week! Look for the Chargers to improve to 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games. 10* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #476 Monday 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:15 ET - The Giants are having a tough season but, keep in mind, they made the switch to Daniel Jones at QB in Week 3. Even though they are only 2-4 since then, two of the four losses came by 6 or less points. In other words, getting the +7 they are being offered at it in this Monday night game would have resulted in a 4-2 ATS record the past 6 games. Also, one of the only two blowout losses the Giants have had the past six weeks was to the Patriots and the Cowboys are certainly not at New England's level. Yes, Dallas is off a huge blowout win over the Eagles but lets not forget Dallas lost 3 straight games prior to that both ATS and SU! The Giants have covered 4 of their last 6 games on Monday Night Football. The Cowboys, when off a home blowout win by a margin of 21 points or more, have gone 11-24 ATS! New York is 8-3 ATS when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. The Giants, after allowing 25 points or more in 3 straight games, are a perfect 5-0 ATS. The Cowboys have swept New York each of the past two seasons and, having already beaten the Giants earlier this season, you know the home team is going to be fired up for the division leaders and will do everything they can to avoid a 3rd straight season sweep at the hands of Dallas. Give me the hungry home dog in this one! 10* NEW YORK GIANTS 

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #474 Sunday 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens (+) vs New England Patriots @ 8:20 ET - As everyone knows, a perfect season is very hard to attain! That said, when we get to the midway point in the season and there are still teams that are undefeated I look to go against them when the opportunity is right. I did that on Thursday with the Cardinals against the undefeated 49ers and though they didn't get the upset win they did get the cash at the betting window. I am doing the same thing on Sunday with the Ravens and, though I do expect the outright upset here, I am grabbing the points (some 3.5 available as of early Sunday morning). Baltimore is a great spot here as they are off their bye week and the Ravens have gone 13-4 ATS the last 17 times when off a bye week. Also, Baltimore enters this game on a 3-game winning streak and with plenty of momentum after their win by a 2-TD margin over the Seahawks in the Pacific Northwest. Of course it is hard to knock the Patriots as they are big winners year in and year out under the mastermind Bill Belichick and with Tom Brady at the controls. However, they do have a bye week on deck and last year prior to their bye week (also around this time of year) they went into Tennessee and promptly got crushed 34-10. The other important thing I want to talk about here is the Patriots schedule. The Pats have feasted on a plethora of weak opponents early this season. The Bills are the toughest team the Patriots have faced this season and they did not cover in that win. The rest of New England's schedule has been against teams with losing records including teams with just 0, 1, and 2 wins and we're now at the mid-way point of the season! Bad teams and the Pats really take a step up in level of opponent and the situation is perfect for an extremely strong game from a physical Ravens team ready to bring that physicality in a punishing way coming off their bye week. There is also a "tightener" relating to the Ravens off a bye week and that is that if they are off a bye and facing a non-divisional opponent, they've gone 11-1 ATS! I'll take it! 10* BALTIMORE

Rickenbach NFL Rotation #470 Sunday NFL 8* Denver Broncos (+) vs Cleveland Browns @ 4:25 ET - There has been an over-reaction here because of the injury to Broncos QB Joe Flacco. I expect Brandon Allen to surprise people with his level of play here. He also has mobility which is a plus. The key here though is we're now getting a very solid defense plus as many as 4.5 points and they are at home in this one and coming off a loss. Yes Denver's season has been a disappointment thus far but so too has the Browns season. Cleveland has struggled this year and, like the Broncos, has just 2 wins on the year. Also, the brash personality of Browns QB Baker Mayfield has put a target on the back of the Cleveland offense every time they step on the field. Defenses love "getting after it" when they face a QB who has a little too much bravado as they love to "put him in his place". Keep in mind, the Browns came into this season with very high expectations and they have fallen well short thus far. Trying to right the ship at a tough place to play and facing a tough defense...I just don't see it happening. The Browns beat the Broncos here late last season but Denver entered that game having beaten Cleveland 11 straight times and now it is payback time. The Browns struggle to stop the run and the Broncos have a respectable ground game and that will help Allen get acclimated into the offense here as Denver establishes the run. The Broncos defense allowed 30 points recently to the Chiefs but that was a fluke as KC only had 271 yards of offense in that game. Considering that as well as the fact that Denver has allowed an average of only 9.3 points per game in their other 3 recent games, you can see why I am expecting the Browns to struggle against this Broncos defense at Mile High! Give men the points with the home dog here. 8* DENVER