Rickenbach NFL Rotation #472 Sunday 8* Los Angeles Chargers (+) vs Green Bay Packers @ 4:25 ET - The Packers are a fantastic 7-1 SU on the season but if you take a look at their last 6 games it tells you why they are a bit over-valued here. Green Bay's wins included victories over Denver, Detroit, and Oakland. None of those teams have a winning record. The Packers lost to the Eagles and then, though they beat the Cowboys, Green Bay was heavily out-statted at Dallas. As for their most recent game GB took advantage of KC being without star QB Patrick Mahomes. Even facing the Chiefs without their star, the Packers still barely won that game. Now the Pack face a Chargers team that has a knack for playing tight games and yet GB is as high as a 4.5 point favorite in this one. I won't hesitate to grab the home dog here as LA also has momentum courtesy of finally getting a much-needed late game victory at Chicago last week. The Chargers lose so many tight games that this was a big confidence-booster for them and totally changes the morale of locker room heading into this match-up with a 7-1 Green Bay team. The strength of the Los Angeles defense is defending the pass and the Packers rely heavily on QB Rodgers and the passing attack. That said, the edge goes to LA here and that is particularly true because the Chargers edge is also the passing attack and they're now going against a defense that ranks in the bottom fourth of the NFL. Make no mistake about it, considering the Packers defensive production this season, they are very fortunate to be 7-1 at this point and that is why I am expecting an upset loss for GB here but I am grabbing the added insurance of having the points here in case LA loses on a late field goal as they so often seem to do. 8* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #465 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oakland Raiders vs Detroit Lions @ 4:05 ET - Nice weather expected in Oakland today and we've got two QB's involved who both can light it up. I like the fact that the Lions and Raiders are two of the worst teams in the league when it comes to pass defense. Overall the Oakland offense has been respectable this season although they've certainly wasted some opportunities to put points on the board but that actually helps with the value here with keeping this total a few ticks lower than it should be. The Detroit passing attack ranks as one of the best in the NFL and that is why I am expecting a back and forth shootout here. Detroit has had one ugly game offensively on the scoreboard (13 points) in the Lions home opener against the Chargers. However, in their other 6 games this season they have averaged 28 points per game and I am expecting at least that today against a Raiders defense that has allowed just under 30 points per game in their last 6 games! As for the Oakland offense, they have averaged 26 points per game their last 4 games. Detroit's D has had one impressive game (against the Chargers, just 10 points, in the aforementioned home opener) but has mostly struggled. In their other 6 games this season the Lions have allowed an average of nearly 30 points per game. With this total down close to 50 and my projections calling for it to finish closer to 60, this one easily got top total status for me this week. The over is 4-1 in the Raiders last 5 games and the only under came last week by the slimmest of margins. This week's game makes up for that. The over is also 4-1 in the Lions last 5 games and the only under also came by the slimmest of margins. A  ton of value here in what should be a very entertaining back and forth shootout. 10* OVER the total in Oakland

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #458 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Chicago Bears @ 1 ET - The Eagles are getting healthier and getting some reinforcements on both sides of the ball for this one. After the ugly disappointment of their disaster at Dallas a few weeks ago, Philadelphia got it with a dominating win at Buffalo. They have a bye on deck next week and this is the Eagles only home game between early October and mid-November. In other words, they have had this game circled as a key game to notch the victory heading into their bye week and an upcoming showdown with the Patriots on the 17th. The Eagles are 5-1 ATS the last 6 times in a game before a bye week. They'll take advantage of facing a Bears team that is in a free-fall with 3 straight losses. Chicago's offense continues to struggle as last week was the 4th time in 7 games that the Bears have been held to 16 points or less. Also, prior to last week's tight loss to the Chargers, the Bears normally stout defense had allowed an average of 30 points in their two prior games. Chicago is in the wrong place at the wrong time to try and fix these types of problems. The Bears are 3-10 ATS their last 13 games against NFC East opponents. Of course Chicago would love to get revenge for last year's home playoff loss (a heart-breaker) to the Eagles but note also that the Bears are 0-3 ATS this season when off an upset loss as a favorite and that is the case here after another disheartening loss last week to the Chargers that was a winnable game. The Eagles were a small dog to the Bills in Buffalo last week and won the game by an 18 point margin. Philadelphia is 7-0 ATS the last 7 times off an upset win as an underdog. They'll again carry that momentum well here, especially with DeSean Jackson, Darren Sproles, and Tim Jernigan all listed as probable for this one. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #302 Thursday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals (+) vs San Francisco 49ers @ 8:20 ET - The 49ers are 7-0 SU this season but the Cardinals are 8-0 SU in their last 8 games against San Francisco. Now, of course, I am not saying the Cards are going to win this game outright but I do feel we've got great home dog value in this match-up. The Niners are over-valued after their blowout win versus Carolina last week while Arizona is under-valued after their blowout loss at New Orleans last week. As strong as the 49ers have been, they haven't run away with the division just yet. That's because the Seahawks are right behind them and, up next for the Niners, a huge game on deck versus Seattle a week from Sunday. With that said, can the 49ers maintain full focus here and win this game by double digits on a short week? I am forecasting that the answer to that question is a no. The Cardinals entered last week's action on a 3-game winning streak but they ran into a buzzsaw as they faced a red hot Saints team that also got a big boost with the return of Drew Brees at QB! The Cards will perform much better back at home this week. When Arizona is a host, and facing an opponent off a win (both SU and ATS), they have covered 15 of the last 17 times! The fact the Cardinals are getting double digits in points here after the line move (originally line was around a TD) means we've got even more value to work with in this one. 10* ARIZONA 

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #278 Monday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (-) vs Miami Dolphins @ 8:15 ET - I know it may seem tough lay big points with a 2-4 Steelers team. However, keep in mind we're fading an 0-6 Dolphins team and Pittsburgh is at home and coming off a bye week. Also, Miami had scored an average of just 8.4 points per game in their first 5 games this season! Certainly the Dolphins showed a little more on offense last week but that came against a Bills team that promptly got blasted by the struggling Eagles yesterday. In other words, perhaps one shouldn't put too much weight into Miami's performance at Buffalo last week. Also, the Steelers are on a 4-0 ATS run. They've gone 2-1 SU in their last 3 games and the lone loss was in overtime. In regulation time Pittsburgh has allowed 14.3 points per game their past 3 games. Not only is the defense playing well but the offense gets QB Mason Rudolph back for this one. The most comparable game to this one is when the Steelers hosted Cincinnati on a Monday night. The Bengals were (and still are) win-less. Pittsburgh rolled Cincy by a margin of 24 points and that is what I am expecting here as well. The fact the line moved down from a 17 to a 14 means we've got even more line value here. I am going with my highest rating of a 10* Top Play as a result. Lay it as the Steelers make it 5 straight covers! 10* PITTSBURGH

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #276 Sunday 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs (+) vs Green Bay Packers @ 8:20 ET - The Chiefs have no chance here without Pat Mahomes, right? Actually I feel better about Kansas City than most do heading into this situation. Keep in mind, this is still a quality team on both sides of the ball and it is not as if they are now turning to a rookie QB with zero NFL experience. The fact is that Matt Moore is a 35 year old veteran with plenty of NFL experience and he had to play many years on mediocre Dolphins teams. Now he is surrounded by teammates that are part of a legit Super Bowl contender. Having had a full week and a half to prepare for this game (after being thrown into the fire Thursday night at Denver), Moore will be ready here. The Packers laying nearly a full TD on the road in this one is simply too much. Keep in mind, Green Bay has had the luxury of a very favorable schedule as this is just their 2nd game away from Wisconsin in the past 7 weeks! Also, this will be just their 3rd game this season against a team that currently has a winning record. In the other two games (against Dallas and Minnesota) the Packers did get the win in each game but the stats tell the full story! Green Bay was outgained in both games and, in fact, was outgained by more than a total of 300 yards by the Cowboys and Vikings. Now the Packers take on a strong Chiefs team on the road and are laying nearly a TD...I don't think so! Green Bay struggles to run the ball on offense and their defense is suspect against both the run and the pass. The Chiefs strength on defense is against the pass and I also look for the KC defense to really ramp things up at home as they are fired up about hosting Aaron Rodgers and his high-flying Packers in this one. The Chiefs D will be ready and, on the other side of the ball, Moore will utilize his weapons very well and the KC offense will take advantage of Packers weak defense! 10* KANSAS CITY

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #267 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Texans vs Oakland Raiders @ 4:25 ET - It is difficult to envision many defensive stops in this one. The Raiders have allowed an average of 30 points per game in their past 5 games. Though their defense has struggled, Oakland's offense has produced 24 points or more in 3 straight games. As for Houston, they have allowed 24 points or more in 3 straight games! The Texans offense has averaged 36 points per game in their past 3 games. The over is 4-0 in Oakland's last 4 games and 3-0 in Houston's last 3 games. Both these teams have respectable offensive production but each team ranks near the bottom of the league for pass defense. Of course in today's pass-happy NFL that is the perfect recipe for a high-scoring game. Look for the over to improve to 5-0 on the season in Raiders games played away from Oakland (this includes their "home game" in London flying over the total). At the same time the over improves to a perfect 4-0 in Texans games with posted total of 49.5 points or more. This one is in the low 50s and it is justified to be posted at that level. I expect this one to get close to 60 points as both defenses struggle to get off the field all game long. 10* OVER the total in Houston 

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #269 Sunday 8* Carolina Panthers (+) @ San Francisco 49ers @ 4:05 ET - It looks easy to take the undefeated team here considering they are at home and laying a short number. However, in typical contrarian fashion, I am grabbing the road dog in this one. Keep in mind, the Niners are off a road trip to the east coast last week as they were in Washington DC to take on the Redskins. Also, SF is actually on a 5-13 ATS run as a home favorite. Each of the last 6 meetings between these teams have seen Carolina get the cash! Also, the Panthers have covered 10 of their last 13 when they are a road dog and not facing a divisional opponent. I like the fact that Carolina is playing with plenty of confidence as they are 4-0 (both SU and ATS) with Allen at QB. Unlike San Francisco, the Panthers are very rested here as they are coming off their bye week. This one sets up well for big situational edges for the road dog and I am grabbing the points. I would not be surprised to see the 49ers unbeaten season come to an end here but I am grabbing the points as added insurance should the Panthers fall just short on the scoreboard. 8* CAROLINA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #261 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Buffalo Bills @ 1 ET - After getting thoroughly embarrassed with their performance at Dallas on Sunday night, look for a tremendous response from the Eagles this week. Philadelphia will take advantage of a Bills team that is over-valued right now. Buffalo is off a win versus Miami last week but they were out-gained in that game. The Bills won the game but were not impressive and certainly the win was aided by a pair of Dolphins turnovers. Philly is on a 15-6 ATS run in games against AFC opponents. In regular season action, the Eagles are 13-0 ATS when they are on the road after a game in which they were held to 10 or less points! Also, Philadelphia is 6-0 ATS when they are off B2B SU losses and facing a team off a SU win by a double digit margin (Bills won by 10 last week). The Eagles already cashed in this role earlier this season when they upset the Packers at Lambeau Field! Bills head coach Sean McDermott is 1-5 ATS when off B2B SU wins. Also, in games 5 through 8 of a season, Buffalo is 2-10 ATS when at home and facing an opponent off a SU loss by a double digit margin. As you can see, great situational edge here for the road dog in this one. Also, included in the strong trending above, a pair of perfect angles combining for a 19-0 ATS mark in support of the Eagles in this match-up. The public is considering the Eagles a dead team after B2B poor road performances. When a team is most under-valued, it is the best time to step in. Hungry road dog gets it done here! 8* PHILADELPHIA

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #101 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Vikings vs Washington Redskins @ 8:20 ET - After getting shutout last week in rainy weather on their home field in DC, Washington will put up some points at Minnesota this week. Of course this is a short rest situation for both teams and the Vikings defense allowed 30 points at Detroit last week. Minnesota also comes into this game having averaged 36 points per game the last 3 weeks as Kirk Cousins, former Redskin, is back in the zone. Case Keenum, former Viking, will be under center for Washington here. Look for these guys to try and outduel each other and this is a low total even though Minnesota, last week notwithstanding, does have a strong defense. The Vikings pass defense this season only ranks them in the middle of the pack this year while the Redskins overall defense ranks them in the bottom third of the NFL. The over is 9-4 in Redskins Thursday games. Also, Washington is 6-2 to the over when they are off a game in which they allowed 14 or less points. Look for the Vikings over to improve to 3-0 their last 3 games as the Redskins enter this game having gone 3-0 to the their over their last 3 against NFC North opponents. The over is 21-11 when Minnesota enters a game having scored 25 points or more in 3 straight games. In other words, don't look for the Vikings to slow down here. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #475 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Jets vs New England Patriots @ 8:15 ET - Weather can be an issue at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ but that will not be the case tonight. Light winds, clear skies, and comfortable temperatures combine for the perfect setting for plenty of offense in this one. The Patriots Tom Brady has dominated the Jets defense in recent meetings. The Jets got back their QB, Sam Darnold, last week and he had a huge game against the Cowboys. That is the same Dallas defense that made the Eagles offense look like it was "boys against men" last night. In other words, don't be surprised if the Jets offense has more success tonight than many are expecting. That is the "contrarian" aspect of this play and I am looking for plenty of points as a result because I certainly don't expect the Jets D to be able to slow down Brady and Company. New England has averaged 31 points per game in its last 6 games against the Jets. The Patriots are favored by about 10 points in this game. Would anyone be surprised to see a 31-21 final tonight? I sure wouldn't and that would mean this game gets into the low 50s. The over is 61-38 when the Pats enter a game after scoring 35 points or more last game. Yes, the New England defense has been fantastic this season but note that the over is 4-2 when the Patriots enter a game after allowing 14 points or less in 4 straight games. Also, the over is on a 10-4 run the last 14 times the Jets have played a team with a winning record. 10* OVER the total in New York Jets 

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #473 Sunday NFL 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - Dallas has lost 3 straight games. That said, the ability to get +3 in going against them in a huge divisional rivalry game is an absolutely massive value. Keep in mind, the Cowboys have 3 wins this season and those came against teams that are now a combined 3-14 on the season. The Eagles, like Dallas, are only 3-3 on the season but they at least have one signature win as they handed Green Bay (now 5-1) their only loss of the season. That is the same Packers team that beat the Cowboys. Also, Philly absolutely dominated the Jets and the Cowboys are off a loss to the Jets in New York last week. The Eagles are getting a little help back in the secondary this week and that will be a key against Dak Prescott and the Cowboys. Note that Dallas has beaten Philly 3 straight times but one of those victories was the meaningless season finale two years ago when the Eagles were resting players for their playoff run which culminated in a Super Bowl Title. That said though, Philadelphia certainly hasn't forgotten about being swept by their most hated rivals since taking home the Lombardi trophy! It is payback time Sunday night in Big D and right now, Carson Wentz is playing more consistently than Prescott. Wentz has one more TD toss and HALF as many picks as Prescott so far this season. Also, the Eagles rush defense is one of the best in the league and Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott has struggled against top competition this season. When Philly is playing with revenge against an NFC foe and the Eagles are on the road and entering the game off an ugly ATS loss by a double digit margin, they are 8-1 ATS! After getting embarrassed at Minnesota last week, the Eagles come out with fire this week and get their revenge. Look for the Eagles to get the upset but I'll grab the points as added insurance. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Total of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #469 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Seattle Seahawks vs Baltimore Ravens @ 4:25 ET - The Ravens like to blitz a lot but Seahawks QB Russell Wilson has had great success against the blitz this season. Overall, both Seattle and Baltimore are enjoying plenty of success on the offensive side of the ball. Additionally, the weakness of each team on defense is against the pass. In other words, look for plenty of points in this one. The kicker for me in terms of the tremendous value here is that this total was as high as a 51 and yet is now as low as a 48 as of early game day morning. Jump on the line value available with this one. The over is 3-0 in Ravens road games this season and, overall, on the year Baltimore is scoring an average of 31 points per game. The Ravens have not been held below 23 points in any of their games this season. The Seahawks have not been held below 21 points in any of their games this season. As you can see with these numbers, we're already in the mid-forties with this total even if both teams have season-worst performances in terms of point totals on the board and I simply don't see that happening in this non-conference match-up. These AFC/NFC battles tend to be played with a little less intensity on defense and, again, both teams have had trouble against the pass this season. The over is 4-1 in Seattle's last 5 games and they have scored at least 27 points in all 5 of those games! In fact, that is another way to look at this one too. If Ravens score at least their minimum on the season (23) and the Seahawks score at least their minimum the past 5 games (27) you have this game already getting to 50 points! The over is 14-7 when the Ravens are entering a game off 3 straight divisional games! The over is 9-2 when Seattle is off a win by a margin of 6 or less points. Also, the over is 8-3 in Seahawks games against non-conference opposition. 10* OVER the total in Seattle

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #458 Sunday 8* Detroit Lions (+) vs Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET - The Lions are on a short week coming off a Monday Night trip to Lambeau Field. However, the set-up here is otherwise perfect. Detroit is back at home after falling just short against the Packers. The Lions catch the Vikings off a huge win over the Eagles last week. Detroit has double revenge here from getting swept by Minnesota last season. Also, the Vikings have struggled early this season on the road in divisional action as they already lost at Green Bay and Chicago. The Lions have covered 6 of their last 8 games overall. The Vikings, in games 5 through 8 of a season, when on the road after an ATS win by a double digit margin, have gone 2-9 ATS. In other words, don't be surprised if they fall flat away from home after trouncing Philly in Minnesota last week. As for the Lions, they are on a 4-0 ATS run but have lost SU each of the last two weeks. Note that, under head coach Matt Patricia, the Lions are 4-1 ATS when they enter a game off consecutive SU losses. Detroit, in games 5 through 8 of a season, when facing a team with a winning record are 10-2 ATS when coming off a SU loss in divisional action! After getting swept by the Vikings last season, the Lions respond in their first opportunity against them this season. 8* DETROIT

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #459 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Green Bay Packers vs Oakland Raiders @ 1 ET - The Raiders strength this season is running the ball and we have seen the Packers run defense (other than rare exception Monday versus Lions) struggle badly. On the flip side, Green Bay's offense tends to be led much more by the passing of Aaron Rodgers rather than the ground game. Again, Monday versus Detroit was a rare exception as the Packers rushing attack was strong. But the key here is that Rodgers and Company will be going against a Raiders defense that has struggled more against the pass than the run. The point is that the match-ups here favor both offenses over the defenses they will be facing in this one. Couple that factor with the fact that the weather will be very pleasant this afternoon with no precipitation and light winds and this means you have the ideal set up for a non-conference high-scoring shootout! The Raiders are off a bye week which followed an outright win as a 7 point dog against the Bears in London. Oakland is 5-2 to the over when off an upset win as an underdog. Also, the Raiders are 4-2 to the over in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points. Green Bay is an incredible 16-2 to the over when off a home game and that includes a perfect 3-0 when off a home win versus a divisional foe. Additionally, the Packers are 6-1 to the over as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. After I got burned with the over falling just short in their Monday night match-up with the Lions, I come right back with it (and cash it) here. 8* OVER the total in Green Bay

Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #303 Thursday 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs (-) @ Denver Broncos @ 8:20 ET - Broncos off a home shutout win while the Chiefs are off a home upset loss. That makes this the perfect set up for backing the small home favorite. Patrick Mahomes (ankle) has been upgraded to probable for this game. Chiefs head coach Andy Reid's teams are 11-3 ATS when they enter a game off a straight up loss in non-divisional action and are facing a team off a straight up win. KC is now off back to back losses after a 4-0 start while the Broncos are off back to back wins after an 0-4 start. That makes this the ideal spot to back Kansas City. Denver has gotten the cash just once in their last seven meetings with the Chiefs and the Broncos have not gotten the cash a single time in their last five as a host in this series! There is an old adage about "defense wins football games" and I am well aware of the fact that Denver has the much better defense in this match-up. However, not only is Kansas City's offense much better than the Broncos offensive attack, this one is also simply very strong from a situational standpoint. I don't see KC losing 3 straight and I don't see the Broncos winning 3 straight. That said, I have no hesitation in taking advantage of the line move here and laying the short number with the Chiefs. 10* KANSAS CITY

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #275 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions @ 8:15 ET - Chilly temperatures in Green Bay this evening but that is certainly not unusual for mid-October. The positive factors are no precipitation and light winds expected this evening for this divisional battle. Nice weather that will not limit the playbook of either offense. That said, and I am aware of the Davante Adams injury for the Packers, both teams should light up the scoreboard tonight. The over is 3-1 in Lions games this season. The over is a perfect 3-0 the last 3 weeks in Green Bay's games. The Packers are seeking revenge for last year's season-ending shutout at the hands of the division rival Lions. That game stayed under the total as Green Bay didn't contribute at all to the total. Of course that changes in a big way tonight and, prior to that meeting, the over was a perfect 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these teams. The Lions have allowed 24 points or more in 3 of their 4 games this season. Green Bay has allowed an average of 29 points per game the past two weeks. Though the Packers allowed "only" 24 points to the Cowboys last week, they did allow over 400 yards of passing at Dallas. The Lions will be able to attack the Packers D through the air. Detroit ranks as one of the better passing attacks in the league but their pass D ranks near the bottom. This is another reason I am expecting both Stafford and Rodgers to light it up through the air in tonight's game. The over is 3-1 in Detroit's games when they are a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. The over is a perfect 6-0 in Packers games when they are a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. 10* OVER the total in Green Bay

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #273 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Chargers vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:20 ET - Don't be surprised if QB Devlin Hodges plays well for the Steelers on Sunday night. Getting some work in against the Ravens last week (and nearly rallying Pittsburgh for the win) will serve him well here on the road at LA. The Chargers enter this game off a disappointing performance as they managed just 13 points against the Broncos last week as they turned the ball over 3 times. They had scored 30 points the prior week at Miami. The Los Angeles offense, under QB Philip Rivers, will get back on track here against a Steelers defense that, other than dominating hapless Cincinnati, has struggled often this season. Pittsburgh's non-Bengals game have seen them allow an average of 27 points (NOT including OT) in 4 games! The Steelers offense has averaged 24 points per game their last 4 games. The over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams and ALL 5 games totaled at least 44 points! The low total posted on this game could be a key as well as Pittsburgh's over is 4-2 in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points. The Chargers over is 3-0 off a home loss against a division rival. The LA over is 11-4 off an upset loss to a division rival as a home favorite. Rivers bounces back this week but Hodges plays well for the Steelers too and a surprising shootout breaks out in beautiful weather for this one Sunday evening. 10* OVER the total in LA CHARGERS

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #271 Sunday NFL 10* Top Play Tennessee Titans (+) @ Denver Broncos @ 4:25 ET - The Titans lost to the Bills by 7 points last week but they missed 4 field goals in that game! As for the Broncos, they are off their first win of the season and it was an upset win at Los Angeles over the Chargers. After that big road win over a division rival, Denver is in the perfect spot to take a tumble back down to reality this week. The win last week for the Broncos was their first ATS cover too in their past 9 games! As for the Titans, they have covered 5 of their last 6 non-divisional road games. Tennessee's strength on offense is their running game. The Broncos weakness on the other side of the ball is stopping the run. That said, and with Denver off a win and the Titans off a loss, the road dog is the play here! In games 5 through 8 of a season, when Tennessee is off a SU loss and facing an opponent off an outright upset win as an underdog, the Titans have gone 9-2 ATS. Also when in games 5 through 8 of a season and off an ATS loss where they missed covering by a double digit margin, the Titans have gone 9-2 ATS in their next game when that game is against an opponent with a losing record on the season. The Broncos, in games 5 through 8 of a season, are 0-7 ATS off a divisional game and facing an opponent off a non-divisional game. Another issue for Denver here is they have a huge game coming up Thursday as it is a divisional game hosting the Chiefs. That makes this a sandwich spot for the Broncos (off a big divisional game and with a big divisional game up next). The fact their next game is Thursday also hurts Denver in this one. Look for the Titans to get the upset. 10* TENNESSEE

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #266 Sunday NFL 8* Los Angeles Rams (-) vs San Francisco 49ers @ 4:05 ET - This line opened up in the 4.5 range and is now down to a -3 as of early game day morning. In typical contrarian fashion I am going against the line move and backing the favorite in this one. I had my eyes on this match-up when the lines first came out as the Niners are off to a surprising 4-0 start this season but off a Monday night game versus the Browns. Now San Francisco catches an angry Rams team off back to back losses. Los Angeles laid an egg two weeks ago in their loss to Tampa Bay two weeks ago. Then they fell short at Seattle in the Thursday night game last week. The Rams missed a late field goal that would have won the game. That said, LA has plenty of motivation here plus they have a significant rest edge since they played on Thursday of last week while the Niners are on a short week since they played on Monday. Los Angeles is on an 8-3 ATS run in divisional action while the 49ers have failed to cover 5 of their last 6 in NFC West action. This is the perfect spot to back a Rams team that blasted San Francisco by an average margin of 22.5 points per game in their two meetings last season. Yes I know the Niners were without Garoppolo in those games but LA didn't exactly just squeak by in those games either. Lay the short number here! 8* LOS ANGELES RAMS

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #261 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET - Revenge game for Eagles after the Vikings (who had playoff revenge) handed Philly a 2 point loss in their meeting last season in Philadelphia. Now Minnesota is laying 3.5 points here after they ran all over the Giants last week. The Vikings won't be able to run like that this week as they face an Eagles run defense that ranks #1 in the NFL. That said, the game is in the hands of Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins. Of course there has been a lot of negative talk going on around (and within!) the Vikings organization when it comes to their QB situation. That was quieted last week because they ran the ball so well but that was against a weak Giants team. Now the Vikes face a Super Bowl contender known for stout run defense. This match-up sets up perfectly for the Eagles as a sizable underdog here. Philadelphia has covered 6 of its last 8 games as a non-divisional road dog. This game will come down to Carson Wentz and Cousins. That said, whom do you want running your offense in crunch time? Not only do we get Wentz here, we get more than a field goal on our side. Although I am making this play fully expecting an outright Eagles win, I could certainly see this game being decided on a late-game field goal as well. In other words, there is a lot of value with having the 3.5 points on your side in this one! 8* PHILADELPHIA

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #103 Thursday 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) @ New England Patriots @ 8:20 ET - This is simply too many points. Yes, I am aware of the history rookie quarterbacks have when visiting Foxboro for the first time against Belichick and Brady. However, I am also aware that the Giants have covered 12 of their last 18 in non-conference action and 7 of their last 9 as a road dog. Also, certainly I would never argue the fact that New England is a great team. They prove themselves year in an year out. However, before you go announcing them as Super Bowl champions this season, note that they have played only one tough team (Buffalo) this season. Note that the struggling Steelers they faced are 1-4 on the season. Additionally, the Patriots other 3 games were against the Jets, Dolphins and Redskins. Those teams are a combined 0-13 SU on the season! Not exactly a powerhouse schedule that the Pats have faced thus far. That being said, don't be surprised when the scrappy Giants hang around in this one and get the cover as massive underdogs. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #477 Monday 10* Top Play Cleveland Browns (+) @ San Francisco 49ers @ 8:15 ET - In my analysis of yesterday's play on the Packers I noted how over-rated the Cowboys were because their 3-0 start was helped tremendously by playing 3 teams that now are a combined 2-12 on the season! Now we have a similar situation here. The 49ers are coming off their bye week (by the way they have ZERO wins - SU or ATS - the L7 times off a bye) and San Francisco enters this week with a perfect 3-0 record. Note that the Niners have played Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh. Those 3 teams are a combined 3-12 on the season. Now, I am not saying that Dallas is a bad team or San Francisco is a bad team. I am merely stating that each of these teams is a little over-rated right now in my opinion. I went against the Cowboys in each of their games since their 3-0 start and I won with New Orleans and Green Bay in doing so. Now I will take a scrappy Browns team against go against the 49ers after their 3-0 start. When bettors think of Cleveland they can't help but think of their opening game debacle against the Titans and that is part of the reason there is current value with the Browns. Cleveland did catch a break with the Jets on their schedule but their other games were against Tennessee, the Rams, and Baltimore. All 3 of those teams are tougher than the teams the Niners have faced this season. The Titans went 9-7 last year and just missed the post-season, the Ravens went to the playoffs, and LA went to the Super Bowl. Don't underestimate the Browns here and catching 5 points with them is an absolute high value spot as it makes even a 4-point loss a win at the betting window and I look for Cleveland to be in this one all the way! By the way, the Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against NFC opponents and I also look for them to move to 9-3 ATS their last dozen games in a road dog role as they get the cash here! 10* CLEVELAND

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #475 Sunday 8* Indianapolis Colts (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:20 ET - Make no mistake the Chiefs are a great football team but the situation here is perfect (literally!) to back the Colts. Not only is Indianapolis 6-0 / 100% their last 6 when playing in a game prior to a bye week, the Colts also have playoff revenge from last season. Additionally, I like the fact that the Chiefs are off a nail-biter last minute win at Detroit last week while Indy is off a disappointing home loss to the Raiders. Again, the set up here is literally perfect. I am not saying I expect the Colts to win outright but I am saying I expect this game to be decided by no more than a TD which means we've got great value here with the big points. Keep in mind, when lines were out this summer this line was closer to a -4 and now we're seeing -11 on this game for KC. Of course this has a lot to do with Andrew Luck's retirement but this is an over-adjustment in my mind. Also, the Chiefs defense continues to be an area of weakness and though Kansas City does hold the edge in terms of overall offense, the Colts have had the better ground game this season. Couple that with the better defense overall and you can make a case for Indy being "in this one" all the way! Under Frank Reich, the Colts are 6-1 ATS when they face a team with a winning record that is off a non-divisional game. By the way, while it is true that the Chiefs are undefeated on the season it also true that each of their last two wins have been very tight games. Also, 3 of Kansas City's 4 games have come against non-playoff teams that had a combined record of 15-33 last season. The Colts are well-coached and will give KC all they can handle in this one. Look for another tight Chiefs win. 8* INDIANAPOLIS

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #473 Sunday 10* Top Play Green Bay Packers (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - It was great to watch the over-rated Cowboys flounder when they finally faced a formidable opponent last week. The Saints didn't even have Drew Brees and yet still beat Dallas even though the game was very poorly officiated. As per usual the flags seemed heavy against New Orleans and light against the Cowboys and yet even that wasn't enough to rescue "America's Team". Now instead of facing a back-up QB the Cowboys face Aaron Rodgers and he was on fire for the Packers in their home loss to Philadelphia last week Thursday. Yes Green Bay fell short in that game but they did outgain the Eagles by a substantial margin. Lets not forget that Dallas' wins have come against the Dolphins and Redskins and Giants. The former two teams are still winless on the season and New York is fortunate to be 2-2. The Giants only beat TB because of a late missed chipshot FG by the Bucs and then the G-men got another win because of facing the floundering Redskins. The point is that Dallas still hasn't proven they can beat a good team this season and yet many are already pronouncing them as the NFC representative in the Super Bowl. As for the Packers, their wins including knocking off quality defenses in the Bears and the Vikings. Now the Cowboys face an angry GB team after a home loss on national TV in a game in which they were favored. Note that, even though this is a revenge game for Dallas, the fact is the Packers have had their number. Also, in Games 5 through 8 of a season, when the Packers have a winning record but are an underdog and are facing a team that also has a winning record and has revenge too, GB is actually a stellar 10-1 ATS in this situation! Additionally, note that the Cowboys are 0-11 ATS as a conference favorite of 3.5 points or less when they are facing a team with a winning percentage of .667 or greater. That system also fits here. The Packers got punched in the mouth by the Eagles ground game last week. They'll come ready to play this week after that debacle and there is no doubting the offense of the Pack will be the toughest offensive unit that Dallas will have faced this season! 10* GREEN BAY

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #455 Sunday 8* Arizona Cardinals (+) @ Cincinnati Bengals @ 1 ET - While it may seem hard to take any winless team on the road catching only a field goal, it is not as tough when the team you're playing against is Cincinnati. The Bengals looked like absolute garbage on Monday night. Now the fact is one should never put too much weight into just one game but the key here is that the Bengals were 0-3 and facing a division rival on Monday night football. That is the type of game that EVERY team in the NFL gets up for! That said, to see a lifeless Cincinnati team look like absolute trash in a situation like that says an awful lot about just how bad of a mess things are with the Bengals franchise right now. Conversely, the Cardinals at least are showing signs of life. Yes they lost by 17 to the Seahawks last week but the stats in that game were roughly equal. In other words, it was a bit of a "phony" final score. Also, the Cards rallied in the first game of the season to force OT. The fact is Arizona, unlike Cincinnati, is at least showing signs of life under their young head coach and rookie QB. I would not be surprised to see them get the outright upset here but certainly have no hesitation in grabbing the 3 points in this one. The Bengals are 1-9 ATS as a favorite of 6.5 points or less when they enter a game off an ATS loss by a double digit margin. 8* ARIZONA

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #457 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Carolina Panthers vs Jacksonville Jaguars @ 1 ET - Carolina is struggling with run defense this season and Jacksonville comes into this game as one of the top rushing offenses in the league after obliterating the Broncos with their ground attack last week. Both teams are off victories last week as the Panthers won at Houston and the Jaguars won at Denver. On offense, Carolina's spirit seems rejuvenated with Kyle Allen at QB. I like taking overs when a match-up involves a pair of teams off victories. That means team confidence is high and we've got a low total to work with here too. Jacksonville's pass defense has struggled at times this season and Allen and Company take advantage here. The over is a perfect 3-0 when the Panthers are off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog. Look for that streak of overs to move to 4 in a row with a higher scoring game than most are expecting here as the Panthers and Jaguars continue to thrive behind their back-up QBs. Allen gets it done again and the strong ground game of Jacksonville opens things up for Gardner Minshew to attack through the air as well. 10* OVER the total in Carolina

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #301 Thursday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 8:20 ET - The Rams opened up as the favorites here. Unsurprisingly everyone jumped all over the Seahawks since they are also 3-1 like Los Angeles is and plus they have home field here and Seattle is a tough place to play. As per usual, I am fading the line move and I particularly love this play. The Seahawks are 3-1 but their lone loss came against the only tough team (Saints) that they faced. Seattle's 3 wins came against teams that, through 4 weeks of action, have totaled ONE win between the 3 of them. The fact is the only win among those teams came because they played each other (Cin @ Pit MNF). As for the Rams schedule, they have played 4 teams of which only 1 of the 4 has a losing record. Also, I love the fact that Los Angeles is off an embarrassing home loss to Tampa Bay. The Rams will be ready to respond here and, by the way, as tough as it is to play at Seattle, LA has won each of its past two visits here. Look for the Rams to improve to 8-3 ATS in their last 11 divisional games as they get a convincing road win here. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #277 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals @ 8:15 ET - Neither team can run the ball so they both turn to the pass here. Of course passing is your friend when you're playing on an over. In this case we have a manageable total and the weather also is favorable. The rain in Pittsburgh Monday is expected to be moving out by the evening and the winds will be light and the temperatures mild for this MNF match-up. Both teams have struggled defensively this season. Also, the Steelers have been particularly bad defending the pass early this season and the Bengals have been one of the top passing teams in the league thus far. In other words, Cincinnati matches up well in terms of a big game through the air Monday night but I also expect the Steelers to bounce back big here at home and have a huge game but they'll have to rely on the offense to get it done. Without a running game that means taking to the air and I like Pittsburgh to score plenty at Heinz Field even without Big Ben at the controls. The Bengals have had just 3 unders in their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. Also, off a loss by 6 or less points, Cincinnati has had just 2 unders in their past 7 games. Overall, when off a road loss, the Bengals are 7-4 to the over. As a home favorite, Pittsburgh is on a 11-4 run to the over their past 15 games in that role! Also, as a home favorite of 7 or less points, the Steelers are 9-2 to the over! When off an ATS cover (but SU loss) in a road game, Pittsburgh is 6-2 to the over. That system fits here after the Steelers lost at San Francisco last week but got the ATS cover. Two desperate 0-3 teams and weak defenses lead to an entertaining game in this one. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #276 Sunday 8* New Orleans Saints (+) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - The 3 teams the Cowboys have beaten this season are a combined 1-8 and easily could be 0-9 as the Giants got their first win only because the Bucs missed a rather short game-winning field goal last week. The fact is that Dallas has had a fortunate early season schedule and this is not only the first playoff team from last season that the Cowboys are facing, it is also the first team with a winning record from last year that they are facing AND it is a road game. Even without Brees at QB, the Saints are a solid team and they are going to give the Cowboys their first true test of the season. New Orleans has played a much tougher schedule than the Cowboys as they have faced teams that went a combined 34-14 in the regular season last year. In fact, all 3 teams the Saints faced were playoff teams from last year and New Orleans was on the road for 2 of the 3 games. In other words, they are much more battle tested than the Cowboys early this season and that is why sometimes you have to throw early season stats out the window. "On paper" the Cowboys look like the better team right now but, again, they don't play the games "on paper" and the early season schedule certainly should be factored in. Also, note that New Orleans is on a 6-1 ATS run as a home dog. Also, this is a revenge game as the Saints had won 10 in a row last season before facing Dallas and being handed a tough 13-3 loss. New Orleans hasn't forgotten about this. The Saints are 8-0 ATS when off an outright upset as an underdog and, though heavily out-statted, they got the outright win at Seattle last week. Also, NO is 16-2 ATS when facing an NFC foe that has a winning percentage of .667 or greater. The Cowboys are 0-10 as favorites of 3.5 points or less when facing an NFC foe. Also, Dallas is off an easy win versus the hapless Dolphins and the Cowboys are 2-10 ATS when favored in NFC action and coming off a SU win in non-conference action. A lot of nice systems here plus revenge and home field all in favor of the Saints here. 8* NEW ORLEANS

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #273 Sunday 10* Top Play Jacksonville Jaguars (+) @ Denver Broncos @ 4:25 ET - The Broncos certainly didn't look good last week at Green Bay as they were forced into 3 turnovers and allowed 6 sacks. Keep in mind that is the same Packers defense that the Eagles looked pretty strong against in terms of pass protection and that also opened up holes the size a Mack Truck could run through for the Philadelphia running game to get going. The point is that the Broncos care likely to be in trouble again here with their suspect offensive line. Their now taking on a Jaguars defense that tallied 9 sacks in their Thursday night win over the Titans. Jacksonville has been solid in pass protection and in terms of their sack percentage their defense ranks #1 in the league. Now they take on a Broncos team that is near the bottom of the league when it comes to pass protection and when it comes to generating pressure on the opposing QB. With young QB Minshew continuing to look quite solid as he replaces the injured Foles, I like the fact the Jags also have had extra time to prepare for this game. They enjoyed the luxury of playing at home Thursday while the Broncos were at Lambeau Field on Sunday. Additionally, note that the 3 teams the Jags have faced this season, 2 were playoff teams and the other one almost was last season - the combined record of those teams was 32-16 for a .667 winning percentage. The 3 teams the Broncos have faced had a combined record of 22-25-1 last season. Another reason to like the Jaguars here. Don't be fooled by the short line here on the Broncos at home. You know this is an invitation to take Denver at home as this one has "trap line" written all over it. The Jags, under head coach Doug Marrone, are a perfect 4-0 ATS when off a home game and facing an opponent off a SU loss by a double digit margin. Denver lost by 11 at Green bay and the Jaguars destroyed Tennessee at home on Thursday so that system fits perfectly here. Ride the momentum with the road team here as the home team Broncos get dominated in the trenches once again! 10* JACKSONVILLE

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #261 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Lions vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 1 ET - The over is 10-2 in the Chiefs last 12 road games. They continue to dominate statistically on offense and have the #1 ranked passing attack in the league. The Kansas City defense certainly has some weaknesses though. Remember how Jacksonville threw all over them in the opener even after losing starting QB Nick Foles. Then after a bit of reprieve for the D courtesy of facing the Raiders, the KC defense faced the red hot Ravens last week. Predictably they struggled against the Baltimore offense as the Chiefs allowed over 450 yards. This game is set up well to be a shootout because the Lions defense has not looked good early this season. Detroit though is at home and brimming with confidence thanks to an undefeated record on the season and the Lions offense should continue to move the ball well. Look for Detroit to continue to ride the momentum and they are 6-3 to the over when they enter a game off 2 or more consecutive ATS covers. Overall, the Lions are 11-6 to the over in games played in the first half of a season. The Chiefs continue coming out like gangbusters in their games this season and note that the over is on a 7-2 run when Kansas City enters a game after scoring 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games. This one turns into a track meet on the FieldTurf at Ford Field in the Motor City. Perfect setting for a back and forth shootout. 10* OVER the total in Detroit

Thursday Night Best of the Best - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #101 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Green Bay Packers @ 8:20 ET - This one is all about the line value of the situation. Give the Packers credit for their 3-0 start to the season but they also are +6 in turnovers on the season. Green Bay came into the season with a projected win total for this year that was less than the Eagles but now Philadelphia is a tough 1-2 to start to the season and being written off by many. How quickly things change in terms of betting market perception. Now, even though the Eagles are getting healthier with some guys back on both sides of the ball this week, they are still catching about 4.5 point in this one. Again, even factoring in home field this match-up is one that would have been around a pick'em before the start to the season that these two teams have had. So again it comes back to value and Philadelphia being very hungry off back to back losses and getting WR Alshon Jeffery back for this game. Though still without DeSean Jackson for this game, Jeffery makes a difference and Nelson Algoholor is still in there at WR along with Zach Ertz at tight end and the two tight end sets are an option again with Dallas Goedert now healthier too. In terms of points allowed (a stat that often gets skewed) the Packers defense looks much better than the Eagles early this season but in terms of actual yardage these teams are nearly equal on defense. As for the offense, even though the Eagles have dealt with injuries they have been much more impressive than the Packers statistically on that side of the ball. Again, not taking anything away from Green Bay and their 3-0 start but it is leading to great underdog value here. The Packers haven't won more than 3 games in a row (and the Eagles haven't lost more than 2 games in a row) since the 2016 season! Philadelphia is on a 4-0 ATS run in Thursday games. Also, the Eagles are a perfect 5-0 ATS when they are off B2B SU and losses and facing a team that is off a SU win by a double digit margin. That system fits perfectly here and Carson Wentz and Company, backed into a corner, get back into the win column in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Monday Night Mauling - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #490 Monday 10* Top Play Washington Redskins (+) vs Chicago Bears @ 8:15 ET - Teams almost always are amped up for Monday Night Football but this is particularly when they enter a game winless on the season and playing on their home field. Teams view this is as a great opportunity to right the ship while not only their home crowd, but also all of football nation, is tuned in with Monday Night cameras rolling. The fact we can get the Redskins at nearly a full TD underdog price here is a great value considering that the Bears have averaged scoring only 9.5 points per game in their first two games this season. Chicago was fortunate to get the win at Denver last week. Give them credit for sure as they finally got the clutch kick they needed but now there is even concern there again as the Bears kicker is hurting heading into this game. The Redskins have covered 9 of their past 12 games against non-divisional opponents. The Bears have an anemic offense but do have a strong defense. However, the Broncos did throw for nearly 300 passing yards against Chicago last week. The Bears have been strong at getting sacks but the Redskins have done a great job of limiting sacks early this season. That said, don't be surprised if Washington enjoys some success through the air in this game and I don't expect the Bears to be able to get much of, if any, margin in this contest. The Redskins are fired up off back to back divisional losses including the most recent one coming last week as a host. Note that Washington is 5-0 SU/ATS off a home loss by 10 or more points. Chicago is 2-10 ATS their last dozen games against NFC East opponents. 10* WASHINGTON

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #488 Sunday 8* Cleveland Browns (+) vs Los Angeles Rams @ 8:20 ET - The Rams are off a big home win versus the Saints but took advantage of a big early turnover in the game plus the Drew Brees injury. An in-game injury to a star player early in a game is very tough to come back from - just ask the Steelers (Roethlisberger) and Eagles (Jeffery and Jackson) how early game injuries can have a rough impact on a team. The point is that LA certainly took care of business at home last week but they had some good fortune due to the Saints misfortune. As a result, the Rams are now a little over-valued on the road here as this line has been driven up to as high as a -4 on Los Angeles. The Browns already laid an egg in their Week 1 home game and they certainly don't want to do it again here. That said, after taking advantage of facing the Jets last week, Cleveland now is back home with renewed confidence and ready to atone for their season-opening disappointment in front of the Browns faithful. Note that Cleveland is 4-0 ATS their last 4 against NFC teams. Also, in games 1 through 4 of a season, the Browns are 8-1 ATS as underdogs when facing a team of B2B SU wins. The Rams are off B2B games against NFC opponents plus have another NFC game, versus Tampa Bay, on deck. Los Angeles is 15-24 ATS in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points. The Rams have failed to cover 10 of their past 14 non-divisional match-ups and, after catching breaks early this season (Panthers Newton is not right, Saints Brees hurt in first quarter), LA now runs into a healthy team out to prove their first home game was a complete fluke. Per my projections, the Browns will do just that! 8* CLEVELAND

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #481 Sunday 8* New Orleans Saints (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 4:25 ET - The Saints are a much better team than they have shown early this season. The key word there being team as, keep in mind, it is about much more than just Drew Brees. Sure his absence hurts but don't be surprised if you see a huge response from New Orleans this week and, certainly, we have line value on our side here. This line has gone from a pick'em range all the way up to a 5 and the Seahawks are off an upset win back east. This is not the greatest of situations for Seattle and yet many are backing them here. In typical contrarian fashion, I am on the other side. The Saints are on a 15-2 ATS run against NFC opponents with a win percentage of .667 or better. Of course that system fits here with the Seahawks undefeated on the season. Keep in mind Seattle has played an awful Cincinnati team and a Steelers team that lost their QB to injury early in the game. That is often tough for a team to overcome in the game in which it happens. The Seahawks are on a 1-6 ATS run when favored against an NFC South team. Look for the scrappy Saints to respond after they lost Brees early in their match-up at Los Angeles against the Rams last week. 8* NEW ORLEANS

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #485 Sunday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (+) @ San Francisco 49ers @ 4:25 ET - Certainly the Niners deserve some credit for their 2-0 start but they are taking on a Steelers team that, even without Big Ben, is certainly much better than their 0-2 record would indicate. Also, San Francisco's two wins have come against a Tampa Bay team that has won just 5 games in each of the past two seasons and a Cincinnati team that entered this season off 3 straight losing seasons. Now the 49ers take on a team that is annually a threat to make a run at a Super Bowl team. Trust me, I fully realize this Steelers team is not at the same highest level that it once was. However, catching nearly a full TD here with them in a desperation spot is something I won't pass up. I liked San Francisco coming into this season and I still like them now but they are simply over-rated at this point and I could see them getting upset here which is why I like having the big point so much. Coming off back to back road wins back east and with a bye week on deck, the Niners could get caught thinking they can coast at home here and they get caught already looking ahead to their early season bye. San Francisco entered this season 1-13 ATS the last 14 times they have been a favorite. Also, head coach Kyle Shanahan is 0-7 ATS at home when off a non-divisional game and facing an opponent off a SU loss. Also, Shanahan is 1-8 ATS at home off a game in which his team scored 23 or more points. The Steelers are 12-1 ATS as a dog against an opponent with a winning record. Head coach Mike Tomlin is 11-1 ATS as a road dog against a team off B2B SU wins. 10* PITTSBURGH

Total of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #477 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New York Giants @ 4:05 ET - In week 1 of this season Tampa Bay's defense forced only 2 punts the entire game. In week 2 they allowed over 300 passing yards to Cam "His shoulder is trash" Newton at Carolina but the 4 scores for the Panthers offense were field goals not touchdowns. Give the Buccaneers some credit for that for sure but, off of that big divisional road win, I will not be surprised to see the defense struggle with a desperate Giants team whose offense has been better than their point totals would suggest. New York has averaged 420 yards of offense per game and also has done a great job of not allowing sacks and that has been with the immobile Eli Manning at QB. Now, Daniel Jones takes over at QB in week 3 and he is a much more mobile QB that also has a great "safety valve" in the form of RB Saquon Barkley. The issue for the Giants has much more to do with their defense than their offense to be honest. That is why I like the over so much in this match-up. Jameis Winston bounced back from a very disappointing home start in Week 1 with a respectable game at Carolina in Week 2. This week, Winston is happy to be back home and wants to make up for that embarrassing performance in the home opener. Facing the horrible pass defense of the Giants should allow him to do just that. Also note that the Bucs games are on a perfect 6-0 run to the over when coming off a Thursday night game. Giants games are 6-1 to the over when they are a off a home loss by a double digit margin. 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #464 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Detroit Lions @ 1 ET - Just prior to kick off this season the Eagles win total was 10 and the Lions had a 6.5 for their win total. I am just trying to give you a point of reference here when looking at how over-adjusted the line line on this Sunday match-up is. Philadelphia is HOSTING Detroit here too and they are a Super Bowl contender while the odds makers, as you can from the preseason win total, do NOT expect the Lions to even be a playoff threat this year. So far Detroit has an unimpressive tie at Arizona (blew HUGE lead over the Cardinals...yes THE Cardinals!) and then the Lions beat a Chargers team that is a quality team but lets give that some perspective too. LA, a Pacific Time team was playing a 10 AM game on their body clocks at Detroit and were off a win over an AFC playoff team (Colts) with another AFC playoff team (Texans) on deck. That was a horrible scheduling spot for Los Angeles and the Lions took advantage. But how impressive was the win? The Lions lost the yardage battle BOTH on the ground AND through the air but managed to notch a tight win. Now, because the Eagles have had some injury issues we're seeing the typical over-reaction of the marketplace. Philly, a legit super bowl quality team, is laying 4.5 points at home against a Lions team that won 6 games last season and, really, how great was the Detroit offseason? Also, the Eagles still have Zach Ertz (Carson Wentz favorite target) and Nelson Agholor (huge game at Atlanta) and though Alson Jeffery is still expected to miss, TE Dallas Goedert has a decent chance of playing this week and will be a pre-game decision depending on how warm-ups go. Philadelphia, under head coach Doug Pederson, is 9-2 ATS when they are at home hosting a team off a SU win. This line was as high as a -8 and the oddsmakers were aware of the Eagles injury situation as all these happened early in the Falcons game. That said the line is now down to a 4.5 from the 8 that it was. I'll take advantage and grab the added value with the short home favorite! 8* PHILADELPHIA

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #301 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans @ 8:20 ET - Big drop on this total as it is a divisional showdown in primetime action and the Titans have a history of shutting down the Jaguars offense. However, I look for this game to play out much differently as Jags QB Minshew (filling in for the injured Foles) has a big game but the Jacksonville defense struggles to stop RB Henry and QB Mariota. The Jaguars need to be aggressive on offense so they can keep the Titans defense guessing. The Jags can't be one-dimensional and Minshew has that "gunslinger's mentality" which, of course, can be nice to have with a play on the over. Of course the markets are pushing this one lower as a high percentage of last week's NFL games stayed under the total and there is a recent history of low-scoring games between these teams. However, note the following stats: Jacksonville over is 9-4 after allowing 14 points or less last game. The Jaguars over is 2-0 when a home dog of 3 or less points. The Titans over is 9-4 in Thursday games. Tennessee also is 11-3 to the over when off an upset loss to a division rival as a home favorite. It was a tight loss for the Titans versus the Colts last week and Tennessee is also 10-5 to the over when off a tight loss of 3 or less points to a division rival. Both teams are off very tight divisional losses last week in which it was their offensive production that led to them falling short. That said, you know where the emphasis is going to be in this divisional match-up this week. 10* OVER the total in Jacksonville

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NFL Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Jets vs Cleveland Browns @ 8:15 ET - I am aware of all the injury issues here. Note that some of those are on the defensive side of the ball and that will help our cause here. After the unders cashed in 12 of the 15 games so far in the NFL this week, many will be gunshy about firing away on the over hiere but each game must be analyzed separately of course. The other games have no bearing on the outcome of the total in this game and I am expecting plenty of points. Baker Mayfield and the Browns offense are going to bounce back after last week's disastrous performance at home. Also, Trevor Siemian will surprise many with a good game. There is some talent around him at the skill positions and he has plenty of starting experience in his career. He is not some rookie being thrown into the fire. With Sam Darnold being out the Jets have had plenty of time to work Siemian into their plans for this Monday night match-up. He actually is going to surprise and be a good fit within this offense. However, about that Jets defense...they allowed a huge comeback by the Bills last week as this is a Jets D that allowed 28 points per game last week. Mayfield and Co will enjoy success here. The over is 4-1 Browns last 5 played on turf and 4-1 the last 5 times they've been a favorite and I look for the over to improve to 8-4 the last dozen times that Cleveland has been off a game where they were held to 14 points or less. The over is 7-2 when New York is a home dog of 7 or less points. Also, the over is 5-1 when the Jets are off a loss by a margin of 6 or less points. 10* OVER the total in New York Jets

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #287 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ Atlanta Falcons @ 8:20 ET - With their loss at Minnesota last week, the Falcons are now on a 2-10 ATS run in non-divisional action. Now they host another non-divisional team this week as the Eagles are in town. Philadelphia, under coach Doug Pederson, is 5-1 ATS when off a divisional game and facing an opponent off a loss (both SU and ATS) in their prior game. That system fits here and, keep in mind, while the Eagles are off a gut-wrenching non-cover against the Redskins (allowed backdoor cover with just seconds left in game) the Falcons had no chance at Minnesota last week. Atlanta was a turnover machine in an inexcusable effort at Minnesota. The Vikings, led by perennial loser Kirk Cousins at QB, don't win big games but Atlanta gift-wrapped that one and something is wrong with the Falcons these days. Coming off another ugly preseason and then being ill-prepared for a season opener and all this on the heels of a 7-9 season last year. All is not well with Dan Quinn's group these days. Conversely, the Eagles (with a healthy Carson Wentz who was on fire last week once he got in rhythm) are a strong team that appears well-built to make another run at a post-season berth and are truly a Super Bowl contender again this season. By the way, the Eagles are 7-1 ATS in a game played after facing the Redskins in their prior game. Additionally, under head coach Pederson, Philadelphia is 3-0 SU and ATS against the Falcons. The Eagles are strong in the trenches on both sides of the ball and that will also be a difference-maker in this game as Atlanta's offensive line can not be trusted. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #285 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Denver Broncos vs Chicago Bears @ 4:25 ET - It is safe to say that Broncos HC Vic Fangio knows a thing or two about the tough Bears defense he is facing Sunday. Fangio was the defensive coordinator in Chicago for the past four years before being hired as head coach of Denver. That said, I love the low total posted on this game because I am a classic contrarian. Yes, the Bears defensive struggle against the Packers in the season opener has the attention of everyone and that is keeping this total low. This is not a divisional game however, and is not even an NFC game, it is a non-conference match-up which features a Bears team chomping at the bit to get their offense going after scoring just 3 points last week at home against Green Bay. Keep in mind, the Raiders put up 24 points on this Broncos team on Monday. We're going to see some points in this one with Fangio knowing where the weaknesses (what few exist) are in the Bears defense and Denver will move the ball better here than many are expecting. But I don't see the Broncos stopping a Chicago offense that is much better than what they showed in that Thursday night opener. The Bears averaged 26 points per game last season and when off a game where they were held under 23 points (only happened 3 times) they responded by averaging 32 points per game in their next game. The Broncos, in the past two seasons, are 4-2 to the over when off a divisional game and 3-1 to the over when off a Monday night football game. 10* OVER the total in Denver

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #283 Sunday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints (+) @ Los Angeles Rams @ 4:25 ET - The Saints barely beat the Texans last week at home but did outgain Houston by about 100 yards in the game. Also, could anyone blame New Orleans if they were perhaps looking ahead to this showdown with the Rams? The loss to LA that kept the Saints out of the Super Bowl will go down as one of the most controversial finishes ever in a playoff game. In any event, this week it is payback time and the Rams, despite last week's win, do have issues in terms of Super Bowl losers "hangover". They got manhandled by the Patriots in the Super Bowl last year and even though they won at Carolina last week it was not that impressive. They benefited from turnovers and keep in mind that this was against the same Panthers team that lost to the Buccaneers (yes those Bucs!) in Carolina to open up Week 2 NFL action. I am expecting the Rams to have a dropoff this season but early this season we're still getting value because it is not evident to the masses just yet that this LA team is set to have a dropoff. As for New Orleans, they're going to ride the hunger of last season's disappointing end result and of feeling cheated. A lot of emotions and positive energy for the Saints here and I'll take Drew Brees over Jared Goff any place any time. The Saints are 15-1 ATS when facing an NFC opponent with a winning percentage of .667 or greater. The Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 as a non-divisional home favorite. I am grabbing the couple points being offered here and I expect a big road win. 10* NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #272 Sunday 8* Washington Redskins (+) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 1 ET - The Cowboys blasted the Giants last week in Dallas so they'll have no trouble here, right? That is the prevailing opinion of the marketplace on this game but I'll gladly grab the home dog. The Redskins put up a helluva fight against the Eagles last week in Philly. Yes they let a big lead get away in that game but being on the road makes a big difference. Also, with getting in the backdoor for the late cover, Washington is now 10-2 ATS in the underdog role in early season (games 1 through 4) divisional games. Of course the Redskins are again in that role here and I like the protection they gave to QB Case Keenum last week plus the way the defense played early. Washington just couldn't sustain it for the full sixty but now they are at home against a hated division rival and they've got another shot at the outright upset here, just like last season. The Redskins outgained the Cowboys by a net of 51 yards in their two meetings last year. Also, Washington did a good job of controlling the ground game and Ezekiel Elliott showed last week that he still has a ways to go after missing training camp. Washington is 6-0 ATS the last 6 times they've been a home dog against a team with a winning percentage of .601 or greater. Look for the Cowboys to drop to 1-8 ATS when off a game against the Giants. They have a recent history of struggling in their next game after battling with the Giants. That continues here. 8* WASHINGTON

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #101 Thursday 10* Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+) @ Carolina Panthers @ 8:20 ET - With their failure to cover last week's game, the Panthers are on a 2-7 ATS run dating back to last season. Carolina's Cam Newton insists he is healthy but he continues to avoid throwing the deep ball. There are many questioning the health of his shoulder. The Buccaneers are also off a non-covering loss but statistically they should not have lost the game by 14 points. The difference in the game was two Bucs picks returned for touchdowns. With both teams off sub-par performances last week I like having the big dog in this spot on a short week. Carolina is looking to get into the win column in a back to back home game situation but the way Newton looks right now they will be in a dogfight just to win this game let alone cover the spread. I know Jameis Winston is off an ugly game for Tampa Bay but if you review his numbers through his career he has shown a knack for bouncing back after a disastrous game and certainly last week's game falls into that category. Look for him to be much better in week two. Carolina is on a 1-8 SU run and that includes losing 4 in a row at home. So not only are the Panthers being asked to win this game but also cover the 7 points. I just don't see that happening. The home team covered both match-ups last season but previously the road team was 7-1 ATS in the 8 meetings between these teams in the 4 prior seasons. In other words, consider last season an aberration and look for the ATS road dominance to resume. The Buccaneers allowed only about 250 yards last week and, despite the scoreboard result, have new life under head coach Bruce Arians. 10* TAMPA BAY

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #480 Monday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints (-) vs Houston Texans @ 7:10 ET - In the history of the NFL it is hard to think of many teams that feel more "cheated" entering a season than the Saints. Without a doubt, that infamous non-call when their receiver was "mugged" by a Rams cornerback was the difference in why Los Angeles went to the Super Bowl and New Orleans stayed at home. Now the Saints get the perfect chance to show the World what a great Super Bowl we could have watched last season had it been (as it should have been) the Saints against the Patriots instead of the snooze-fest we witnessed due to one of the worst Super Bowl coaching performances (thanks Sean McVay) ever seen. The point is that New Orleans comes into this game ready to flex their muscles in what, to them, is much more than just a season opener or home opener as this is a chance to show the entire NFL what they missed out on last February. I know the Saints are known for slow starts in season openers but this year's situation is about as unique as it gets and you're going to see an extremely focused and well-prepared New Orleans team on both sides of the ball as they have been waiting to get back on the field for 8 months since their unbelievable OT loss to LA in January. The Texans are a playoff team from last season but they're expected to be a .500 team this season and keep in mind they went 4-12 in 2017. The Saints have averaged a dozen regular season wins per game the past two seasons. They also have the home field edge here. That said, the ability to get New Orleans at less than 7 (plenty of 6.5 out there as of early Monday morning) is a great value. The Saints do have a negative here in that they have the aforementioned Rams on deck BUT, even with that revenge game looming, there is no way that New Orleans is going to overlook facing a playoff team in their home opener. The Saints have been waiting a long time to get rid of the bad taste of that "playoff ripoff" from January. Look for the Texans to drop to 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against NFC opponents as the Saints improve to 9-0 SU (and 7-2 ATS) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. 10* NEW ORLEANS

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #477 Sunday 8* Pittsburgh Steelers (+) @ New England Patriots @ 8:20 ET - The Steelers beat the Patriots in December and they should beat them the December before as well. That 2017 game was a 3 point loss for Pittsburgh which would have been a cover given the line on this Sunday night game. However, this game is at New England which certainly makes a difference but I do feel the Steelers aren't getting enough respect here. This is still a quality football program that will actually prove to be better for getting rid of a couple of malcontents: Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell. As for the Patriots, they recently lost their starting center (David Andrews) for the entire season. New England already was without the now-retired Rob Gronkowski. It is actually a bit humorous that the Patriots have now signed the aforementioned Brown but he won't play in this game anyway as his signing can't become official until tomorrow on Monday. The Steelers are actually 6-0 ATS the last 6 times they have been a road and EACH of those last FIVE victories have been OUTRIGHT wins. It would not surprise me to see the upset here as the Patriots demise begins this season. The Eagles put them in their place in the Super Bowl that followed the 2017 season but surprisingly the Pats made one last hurrah the Super Bowl that followed the 2018 season. I look for 2019 to begin the permanent decline for New England as truly everything fell into place for the Pats to get to the Super Bowl last season and they have lost some key components from last year's team.  The Patriots, as much of a juggernaut as they have been for so many years now, have shown some early season vulnerability. Last season they failed to cover 2 of their first 3 games and the season before they began 0-3 ATS in games played at Foxboro. In my opinion those trends will ring true again here in this early season match-up and the Pats will be in a dogfight just to win this game let alone cover it! 8* PITTSBURGH

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #475 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants @ 4:25 ET - The Giants turned into an over machine as the season went on last year going 9-4-1 in their final 14 games. I don't see that "machine" being slowed down here either. The defense is very suspect still, just like last season, and they face a Dallas team whose HC Jason Garrett has been "called out" for conservative play-calling. The fact is that the Cowboys need to open up the playbook more and be a little more aggressive if they're going to truly get to the "next level". With Dallas hosting a Giants team possessing a weak defense, this is the ideal spot for the Cowboys to "open it up" and put on quite the display on offense. However, don't be surprised if the Giants are able to "trade scores" most of the way with the Cowboys in this one. Eli Manning has something to prove this season and the Giants have averaged 249 passing yards per game in their last 3 against Dallas. The Cowboys have scored an average of 29 points per game in their last 3 meetings with New York and they have the added spark of Ezekiel Elliott coming back just in time to be on board for Game 1 of the regular season. There were 85 passing attempts compared to 47 rushing attempts when these teams met to wrap up last season and that was a wild 36-35 game. This one won't be quite so "wild" but should total more than enough points for it to get over the reasonable number here. I mentioned the Giants over trend above and also note the Cowboys are 6-2 to the over in their past 8 home games. Expect more of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Dallas

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #456 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Washington Redskins @ 1 ET - Normally I don't lay big points in NFL. The key word in this case being "normally" as there are always rare exceptions. The Eagles should blast the Redskins on Sunday. Philadelphia is one of the top teams in the NFL and also enters this season with a chip on their shoulders. The Eagles are sick and tired of being questioned by naysayers about the fact Nick Foles is now with the Jaguars. Carson Wentz is their guy and the Eagles are loaded with talent surrounding him. As for the defense, lets not forget their secondary was ravaged with injuries last season. Again, Philly is tired about being questioned about their defense as they practically played defense last season with one arm tied behind their back as they were so limited by injuries. It is a miracle the Eagles went as far as they did last season considering all those injuries. This is a very tough spot for the Redskins as they face an Eagles team that has used them as a punching bag in recent seasons and that comes into this year very fired up about flexing their muscles and establishing dominance early. Washington is off back to back losing seasons and projected to be even worse this season. They're also breaking in a new QB on the road against a division rival in a hostile environment. As noted above, this is one of those rare situations where laying the big points is absolutely a quality option. The Redskins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games against Philadelphia. The Eagles are 5-1 ATS the last 6 times they've been a favorite of 7.5 or more. In other words, don't let the big line keep you away! 8* PHILADELPHIA

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #453 Sunday 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons (+) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET - It looks easy, right? Take the home team laying a short number and you're "home free" as you cash in later at the betting window. Not so fast. The Vikings were down across the board last season statistically and didn't have a whole lot of areas to point to as to why. Also, their QB (Kirk Cousins) has an overall losing record in his career. As for the Falcons, they also are off a sub-par season but were done in by some key September injuries too. I like the weapons they have for QB Matt Ryan and also I'll take him any day of the week over Cousins whom I just don't trust at all in big games. Certainly this is a big game and I love having the 3.5 points with an Atlanta team that could be playoff bound this season. The Falcons have shored up their offensive line and I expect the defense, now healthier, to be much better under defensive-minded head coach Dan Quinn. Both teams have plenty of hunger for this season after last year's disappointment but Atlanta also has some momentum after winning each of their final 3 games last season. The Vikings lost 3 of their final 5 games and, overall, had a very disappointing 2nd half of the season. The Falcons are 4-1 ATS (and 5-0 SU!) the past two seasons in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points. An outright upset here would not surprise but I am grabbing the 3.5 points currently being offered as of very early Sunday morning. The Vikings are 2-6 ATS their last 8 games in which their line ranged from +3 to a -3. In this particular case the line is a 1/2 point outside that range but the reason I mention it is because it supports the fact that Cousins and his Minnesota teammates tend to fall short at the betting window in games projected to be a tight battle. This one certainly fits the bill in that regard and I am riding with Ryan and the underdog Falcons in this one. 10* ATLANTA

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #451 Thursday 10* Top Play Green Bay Packers (+) @ Chicago Bears @ 8:20 ET - Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are playing this game with a chip on their shoulders and I don't see them being denied. After back to back losing seasons (a rare occurrence) Green Bay also had to look up in the standings at the Bears (another rare occurrence) as Chicago was one of the surprise teams of the NFL last season. This included a key late season win for the Bears over the Packers in Chicago and now it is payback time. In 21 starts against the Bears, Rodgers has a 16-5 SU record. Also, we're seeing this line move toward 3.5 so even a Packers loss by 3 points still gets us in the win column here. We don't even need the SU win that Rodgers has so often provided against Chicago. I like the fact that the Packers outgained the Bears in their two games combined last season even though Chicago covered both games. That is noteworthy as these teams have met 21 times in the past 10 seasons (1 playoff meeting) and NEVER in these 10 years has there been a 3-0 ATS streak in the series for the Bears. I don't see that changing here either. Look for the Packers new wrinkles in their offense under new head coach Matt LaFleur to keep the Bears defense off balance enough that it will have an impact on the outcome of this game. I like having Rodgers over the Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky. Note that the Chicago signal-caller threw 5 INTs against 4 TDs in his final 3 regular season home starts last season. He and the Bears deserve congrats for their big season last year but they're sneaking up on no one this season and the Packers have had their number for a long time and resume that series dominance starting tonight. 10* GREEN BAY

Super Bowl Side - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams (+) vs New England Patriots @ 6:30 PM ET @ Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA - One could argue that the Rams are lucky to be here. After all, that was the story after the NFC Championship Game and the blown pass interference call. However, lets not forget the luck of the Patriots either. Not only did they catch the West Coast Chargers on the East Coast for back to back weeks when they met in the Divisional Round, New England got the added benefit of facing arguably the worst playoff coach in the history of the NFL in the form of Andy Reid in the AFC Championship Game. There are so many mistakes he made in that game it would be too tiring and lengthy to list them all here but lets just put it this way: Rams head coach Sean McVay is at another level compared to Andy Reid. Yes, McVay is very young but I trust his decision-making many times over in comparison with Mr. Reid - known for great regular seasons and horrible playoff flops throughout his career. However, the Patriots luck didn't just stop with the opportunity of facing the Chiefs, they also won yet another coin flip and the way those offenses were moving late in the game do you really think the Patriots would have stopped KC had it been the Chiefs that won the coin toss in overtime? The point is that the Pats have had their share of good fortune to say the least and the fact is I feel strongly that the Patriots reign ended with the Philly Special in the Eagles impressive Super Bowl win over the Pats last season. Everyone and their brother is going to be on New England in this Super Bowl as the savvy veteran Bill Belichick looks to become the oldest head coach to win a Super Bowl while, arguably, the "inexperienced" Rams head coach McVay would be the youngest to ever win a Super Bowl. I feel the Patriots defense is a glaring weakness and the Rams defense doesn't get enough credit for how solid they are. Both teams are good offensively but one could argue Los Angeles has the more dangerous weapons and I am expecting Todd Gurley to bounce back big after an awful performance in the NFC Championship game. The extra time off will no doubt help him. Now, about those defenses. The Patriots defense allowed 26 points or more in 6 of their 9 road games. The Rams have allowed just 15.8 points per game in their last 4 road games. All 4 of those opponents were held to 310 yards or less. Conversely, New England has allowed an average of 387 yards per game in their 9 games away from home this season! I am fully expecting the upset here but grabbing the points should the underdog fall just short. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS

Super Bowl Total - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Rams (+) vs New England Patriots @ 6:30 PM ET @ Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA - The over is 5-1 in the last 6 Super Bowls. The Patriots, with an improbable over in their Conference Championship Game at Kansas City, are now on a 7-1 run to the over in their last 8 playoff games. Remember that 5-1 Super Bowl over run includes the improbable over two years ago when the Patriots rallied and managed to send the game to OT in their dramatic win over the Falcons. Facts are facts and Patriots games, as long as Brady is on the field and Belichick is on the sidelines, are likely to continue to have a flair for the dramatics and that means plenty of late scoring. That said, with this total having moved down to as low as a 56 as of Tuesday, it was "go time" for me in this one. The Rams have played 4 games against AFC opponents this season. Those games averaged 63 points per game! The Patriots 4 games against NFC opponents saw them score an average of 30 points per game. Would a final score somewhere in the neighborhood of 33-30 or 35-31 or 34-28, when you consider the potency of these offenses, really surprise you? Me either...no surprise here...plenty of points with another wild playoff game involving the Patriots. 10* OVER the total in the Super Bowl

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #313 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Kansas City Chiefs vs New England Patriots @ 6:40 ET - Original talk about the weather for this game was temperatures near 0 degrees. However, the strength of the arctic surge of air stayed further east and north. As a result the game time temperature could be near 25 degrees for this one and may only drop to 20 during the game. Chilly? Yes. Unusually cold for football? No. Also, the biggest impact on a total is wind and that is not expected to be an issue here and there is no precipitation in the forecast either. All signs point to both the Tom Brady Patriots and Patrick Mahomes Chiefs being able to fully open up the playbooks in this one. Also, unlike last week these defenses are facing much bigger challenges this week. Last week the Patriots faced the Chargers playing the 2nd of back to back road games and the game was at New England. Likewise the Chiefs were at home off a bye week too and got to face a worn out Colts team playing the 2nd of back to back road games. Look for the offenses to prevail in this one as the over is 6-1 in the Patriots last 7 playoff games. The Chiefs were 4-0 to the over their last 4 games against teams with a winning record prior to last week's game against the Colts staying under the total. In other words, normalcy resumes this week in KC and you're likely to see a shootout in this one. 8* OVER the total in Kansas City

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #314 Sunday 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs (-) vs New England Patriots @ 6:40 ET - The Patriots are off a completely dominating win against the Chargers last week. However, that game was set up perfect for them. They were at home playing with an extra week of rest and facing a Chargers team traveling to the East Coast for a second straight week. Now the situation is much different as the Pats are on the road and facing a Chiefs team that will be playing a home game for the 5th time in their last 6 games! Only one time since an early December game at Oakland have the Chiefs had to leave Kansas City! The Chiefs lost at New England earlier this season but remember they won at New England the prior season and now they're finally getting the Patriots in Kansas City. That is certainly significant as the Chiefs were 8-1 SU at home this season and all 8 wins came by at least 3 points (the current line on this game as of Thursday night). New England went only 3-5 SU on the road this season and 4 of the 5 losses were by a margin of at least 7 points. The Patriots went 1-4 SU and ATS in games played on grass this season. Also, in road games with posted total of 49.5 points or more, the Pats went 0-3 SU and ATS this season! New England benefited this season, as usual, from playing in the weak AFC East and, in my mind, the Patriots dynasty ended when the Eagles got the best of them in the Super Bowl last season. This year, the Pats won't even get to the Super Bowl. It is the Chiefs turn! 10* KANSAS CITY

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #311 Sunday 8* Los Angeles Rams (+) @ New Orleans Saints @ 3:05 ET - The Saints just beat the defending Super Bowl champs last week. Not only is that a big win to come down from in terms of the emotional high, New Orleans was quite fortunate to win that game. When the Eagles were up 14-0 and driving again a very ill-advised play call and poorly thrown ball by Philadelphia QB Nick Foles led to an interception that turned that game around. After the Saints locker room was blaring Meek Mill in the locker room after the game and making light of the Eagles Super Bowl win last year and that they've now "taken over", don't be surprised when they get knocked off their pedestal after just one week. I am well aware of home team's recent dominance in conference championship games. However, the Rams have won and covered 3 straight games and going on the road here actually helps Los Angeles remain focused and not over-confident. As for the Saints, they are on an 0-4 ATS run and over-confident here already talking Super Bowl, etc as New Orleans already beat the Rams here in the regular season as well. Lets not forget the Saints have not been as impressive down the stretch and the Rams get their revenge as they're firing on all cylinders at the right time. 8* LOS ANGELES RAMS

Playoff Total of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Game #311 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Rams @ 3:05 ET - The Saints did next to nothing in the first quarter against the Eagles on Sunday. That said, they essentially gained all of their 420 yards of offense in the final three quarters of that game. Of course that projects out to 560 yards over four quarters. The point is that New Orleans is "feeling it" again on offense and I look for this game to turn into another massive shootout between these teams. The last two times these teams have met in New Orleans the average total points scored is 75. Keep in mind the Rams have scored 29 points or more in 14 of their 17 games this season. Los Angeles is averaging 32.8 points per game on the season and do you really think the Saints aren't going to match the Rams score for score here? The points is that both teams are likely to get into the mid-30s here and that is why, though this total may seem very large, the odds makers were fully justified in setting this total in the mid-50s. There will not be many stops in this game. The Rams will be forced to the air because the Saints run defense has been solid. The Saints love going to the air against LA as they've had 346 passing yards each of the past two times they've hosted LA. The point is that both teams will be airing it out early, often, and throughout this game. Of course plenty of passing is great for an over and the Eagles Foles location last week was off on key passes or the Eagles would have scored a ton. Don't look for the Rams Jared Goff to miss those opportunities. I was not impressed with the Saints secondary. At the same time, New Orleans has proven time and time again they can throw on the Rams. Los Angeles enters this game having gone over the total in each of their two prior games with an average of 66 points scored per game. The Saints are on a 12-4 run to the over in playoff games even with last week's game versus the Eagles staying under the total. The high-scoring trend resumes here as the Saints gameplan will be much different than it was against the Eagles defense. This is an entirely different match-up and both offenses will be attacking downfield early and often. 10* OVER the total in New Orleans

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #307 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ New Orleans Saints @ 4:40 ET - Though they would deny it, there certainly were some questionable play calls (one in particular) in terms of the Saints running up the score when they met the Eagles in mid-November and crushed them 48-7. That loss easily could have sent Philadelphia into a tailspin but, instead, they "rallied the troops" and made the playoffs. Keep in mind they had to beat the Rams in Los Angeles just to get here. Then they won on the road at Chicago last week to open up the post-season. Just like the Rams game, the Bears game was another game where the Eagles had "no chance" and yet prevailed. Once again this week the Eagles have "no chance" against the Saints. Of course this is laughable. These are the defending Super Bowl champs. Philly is again building up confidence with Nick Foles at QB while the secondary which has been so injury-depleted all season continues to grow with confidence thanks to the continuity of more and more playing time together during this late season run. Keep in mind the Saints had a great season BUT their high-flying prolific offense truly peaked with the aforementioned blowout "rub salt in the wound" over the Eagles in mid-November. Since then New Orleans has averaged only 299 yards per game. I did not mis-type! The almighty Saints offense has averaged just 299 yards per game since ripping the Eagles to shreds on November 18th. In 3 of the games the Saints were held to 14 points or less. They do have the rest edge here of course and should win this game but I don't see the win coming by more than a TD and I truly feel the Eagles have a great shot at the upset win. This is a huge revenge game for the defending champs who took the worst beatdown ever for a SB champ at the hands of these Saints. It is payback time. Keep in mind, the Eagles are 12-4 SU and 11-5 ATS when entering a game on a winning streak of 2 or more games. The Saints went 0-3 ATS this season when a home favorite in a range of 7.5 to 10 points and 2 of those losses were outright upsets. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Total of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #305 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers @ 1:05 ET - Of course it will be cold in Foxboro on Sunday but the winds will be rather light and no precipitation is in the forecast. That said, both offenses will be able to operate freely and fully in this one and I am expecting plenty of points. The Chargers are 7-2 to the over as an underdog in a range of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Patriots are 8-2-1 to the over in their last 11 playoff games. New England is also on a 4-1 run to the over when coming off a bye week. Keep in mind this total is only in the 47 range and the Los Angeles has averaged 26.5 points per game in road games this season. Also, the Pats have averaged 33 points per game in home games this season. The Chargers have scored at least 23 points in 8 of their 9 road games this season and, keep mind, the Patriots are favored by 4 in this game. The point is that if the Chargers just have a "normal" game and New England does what they're supposed to here and continues their high-scoring ways at home, this game flies over the total. The Chargers got a bit of a break last week with facing a very inexperienced QB on the road. Note that in their prior road games against quality teams with quality QBs Los Angeles allowed an average of 27.5 points per game. Those games were @ Pitt, KC, Sea, and the Rams. The Patriots D rates in similar fashion as they take advantage of facing weak foes but have struggled against stronger offenses this season. That said Philip Rivers and Co can't be counted out here in the same way that Tom Brady and Co should have a huge game too. In other words, plenty of points in this one. 10* OVER the total in New England

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #304 Saturday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams (-) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:15 ET - The Cowboys are set up to get pummeled here. While it has been a great run for Dallas and has rejuvenated Cowboys fans everywhere, Dallas has covered just once in their last four games. The point is that they're a bit over-valued by the betting markets over the past month and that has continued here. To be able to get the Rams at a -7 is a tremendous value. Keep in mind, Los Angeles has a significant rest edge here and the Cowboys have expended a lot of energy in back to back weeks as they barely squeaked by the Giants at the Meadowlands two weeks ago. Then last week it was post-season time of course and Dallas barely eeked out a win over the Seahawks. The Dallas offense, on the season, has averaged only 324 yards per game on the road. The fact is that the Cowboys have been a very lucky team this season and also have got a ton of help from the refs in tight games / crucial situations. I tell it like it is folks and while that also builds up momentum, it also leads to being over-valued when facing a VERY high-quality foe and that is certainly the case here with the Rams. Keep in mind, LA has averaged 37 points on 453 yards per game in home games this season. Remember the Cowboys 324 yards per game figure above, Dallas has averaged just 17 points per game on the road this season. That is a 20 point differential between these teams and yet the line here is a -7 and it is Los Angeles with the rest edge. This is VALUE! Look for Dallas to drop to 0-4 ATS in their last 4 January games while the powerful Rams improve to a potent 3-0-1 ATS when coming off a bye week. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS

Playoff Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Game #302 Saturday 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts @ 4:35 ET - The Colts are on a great run but they now run into the #1 seed in the AFC. Not only did the Chiefs certainly earn that #1 seed, they also earned the bye last week and home field edge. That means a lot here. Kansas City is rested and ready plus their defense was much stronger at home than on the road. For the season the Chiefs potent offense averaged 35.3 points per game but their much-maligned defense also allowed just 18 points per game at home. As strong as the Colts run has been, lets not forget that they've averaged only 19.5 points per game their last 4 road games. Simply put, Indianapolis won't be able to keep up with the potent Chiefs in this one. The Colts are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games against AFC West opponents. Also, Indianapolis is a long-term 9-15 ATS in road games with a posted total of 49.5 points or more. The Chiefs went 10-2 SU (and 8-4 ATS) this season versus AFC foes. The Colts had dominated this series prior to Kansas City winning the most recent match-up. Also, the Chiefs (and head coach Andy Reid) are known for their playoff struggles. However, this team is different with Mahomes at the helm and with the play of the defense in home games as well as the rest factor, I do not see the Chiefs being denied here as they make up for a blowing a huge half-time lead in last season's playoff debacle. The Chiefs went 7-1 at home this season and only one of those 7 wins came by a margin of less than 7 points. 10* KANSAS CITY

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #107 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Chicago Bears @ 4:40 ET - Be careful what you wish for. The Bears decided it was better to face the Eagles than the Vikings. Chicago got a big win at Minnesota last week and that kept a division rival out of the post-season and welcomed Philly to town. However, was that really a smart move? Would you rather face Kirk Cousins (a QB known for NOT being able to get the win in key games) or Nick Foles (Super Bowl MVP and absolutely red hot right now)? The fact is that I feel strongly that last week's Bears win that allowed the Eagles into the playoffs and stamped their invitation to Soldier Field is ultimately going to spell the demise of Chicago. Yes, I am grabbing the points here but I expect an outright victory for the Eagles. Make no mistake about it the Bears defense has been great this season. But Philly has positive history in recent meetings with Chicago and Alshon Jeffery (former Bear) is poised for another huge game and has become a key target for Foles. Also, Golden Tate (former Lion) has seen plenty of the Bears secondary in his recent seasons matched up against the division rival. Of course Darren Sproles being healthy is another key catalyst for the Eagles offense as the veteran has incredible quick play capabilities and it forces defenses to NOT be able to focus on just TE Zach Ertz (100+ catches this season) coming across the middle. Back to the QB situation, Foles ribs are only bruised. He will be fine here. No disrespect intended but just be honest with yourself here. Would you rather have Mitchell Trubisky leading your team or a Super Bowl Champion QB whom completed 25 straight passes before exiting last week's game with bruised ribs? The Bears defense has been great this season but there is something magical again (just like last season) about this Eagles team as certainly they were counted out by many when they dropped to 6-7 after that devastating (and ref-impacted) loss to the Cowboys. On the season the Eagles played a tougher schedule than the Bears. This line is offering tremendous underdog line value. The Bears are 0-6 SU (and 1-5 ATS) their last 6 against NFC East foes. The Eagles are 11-4 SU (and 10-5 ATS) when they enter a game on a SU winning streak of 2 or more games. They are hot again, Foles is feeling "it" again, and this team is truly feeling "it" again and also has had a chance to heal up some in their secondary. Keep in mind that is their biggest weakness (due to injuries all season long) but their defensive line (and offensive line for that matter) is one of the best in the game. Trubisky is not going to have much time to beat the Eagles downfield. They just won't give him time. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #105 Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers (+) @ Baltimore Ravens @ 1:05 ET - Give the Ravens credit for their big road win at Los Angeles last month. Certainly that road victory is going to have many backing Baltimore at home in this match-up. However, as per usual I am going contrarian and going with the Chargers in this match-up. Keep in mind that game at LA was played when the Chargers were in a divisional sandwich situation. They had just beat the Chiefs AT Kansas City and had another big divisional ROAD game on deck. In other words it was a definite flat spot for Los Angeles. Of course it goes without saying that the Chargers are NOT going to be flat here and I'll take Philip Rivers over Lamar Jackson at QB in a playoff game anytime anywhere. Keep in mind the Chargers are 7-1 SU and ATS on the road this season and their last 3 wins came at Denver (not an easy place to play) and Kansas City and Pittsburgh. That is no small feat! As for the Ravens, they wrapped up the season going 6-1 after going 4-5 prior to their bye week. However, Baltimore's wins (other than against the Chargers) came against a slate of sub-par teams! The Ravens other 5 wins came against teams with a combined 29-50-1 record. NONE of those 5 teams finished the season with a winning record. The Ravens are 4-8 SU and ATS when they enter a game on a winning streak of 2 or more consecutive games. In Sunday's match-up look for Baltimore to drop to 4-8 ATS on the season in games in which they are a favorite. The Chargers fully fit the definition of a "live dog" here! 10* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #103 Saturday 10* Top Play Seattle Seahawks (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:15 ET - Just a couple days ago this line was very nearly a pick'em and now the Cowboys are inching closer to being a 3 point favorite as of early game day morning. With all due respect to the Cowboys, the Seahawks have some key edges here. First off at head coach I would take Pete Carroll over Jason Garrett any day of the week. Secondly at quarterback, I certainly like having the veteran leadership in crunch time of Russell Wilson over the talented but still learning Dak Prescott. Keep in mind too, when Prescott and the Cowboys have to play from behind, things become particularly problematic for them as Prescott seems to press and get rattled. The Cowboys are 2-9 SU in their last 11 playoff games. Certainly they do not have a good history while the Seahawks are a PERFECT 6-0 their last 6 Wild Card playoff games and 4 of those have been in the Pete Carroll era. Overall, under Carroll, the Seahawks are 7-3 in playoff games their last 10. This season Seattle has failed to cover just ONCE in NINE games with a line between +3 and -3. By comparison, the Cowboys have only 3 ATS win in NINE games with a line in that same range. That said, having the points here sure could prove handy though I do expect an outright upset win for the Seahawks! Seattle is also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 versus NFC East teams. The Seahawks are 4-0 ATS their last 4 versus teams with a winning record this season. Dallas has covered just 2 of their past 7 wild card round playoff games. The turnover battle has been won 3-0 in favor of the Seahawks in each of the past two meetings and look for that to be a key again here as Carroll has his team ready and the Cowboys make the crucial mistakes again. 10* SEATTLE

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NFL Game #101 Saturday NFL 10* Top Play Houston Texans (-) vs Indianapolis Colts @ 4:35 ET - When these teams met AT Indianapolis earlier this season the Texans were a 1 point favorite on the road. Given that, when they met later in the year in Houston a line of -7 on the Texans would not have surprised. However, that was a revenge game for the Colts and Houston ended up only at -4 and Indianapolis got the outright upset. But now it is the Texans with revenge and they are at home and it is playoff time and yet a line that very easily could have been -7 earlier this month (given the above) is now a PICK'EM! Of course the reason is that Andrew Luck and the Colts have been red hot. However, let us not forget that in road games against playoff teams, Indy went 1-2 and was outscored by a combined 79 to 64 in the 3 games - win at Houston, and losses at Philly and New England. As for the Texans at home against playoff teams, they did beat the Cowboys and had the one loss to the Colts. Overall at home this season Houston has won 6 of their last 7 games with the lone loss to Indianapolis. It is payback time here. The Texans are 5-1 SU the last 6 times they've been a home favorite of 3 points or less. The Colts are 1-4 SU the last 5 times they've been a road dog of 3 points or less. With the current line on this game showing Houston as low as -1 point favorite, a price range of -115 to -120 is currently available on the money line in a number of books and I look for the Texans strong play at home to continue. 10* HOUSTON

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #321 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts @ 8:20 ET - Rain is expected to move in during this game but it will start out light and, of course, the timing on these things is always questionable. The key factors though from a weather standpoint are mild temperatures in the 50s and light winds. Also, if the rain pushes back on the timing just slightly, it may only be light rain during this game. Either way the light winds mean the full arsenal of the playbook is available for each offense. Titans QB Marcus Mariota is officially listed as questionable for this game but I don't see him missing this "win to get in" game that is a battle for a playoff spot. As for the Colts, Andrew Luck and Company have been on fire so I am expecting plenty of points in this one. Indianapolis is known for giving the Titans defense trouble as the Colts have averaged 26.8 points per game in their last 5 games against Tennessee. The Titans have averaged 31 points per game in their last two home games versus the Colts and both of those flew over the total and I expect a similar result here! Tennessee enters this game having averaged 28.8 points per game in their last 4 home games. Indy has had just one ugly showing on the scoreboard in their last dozen games. That was a shutout loss at Jacksonville but in the Colts other 11 games dating back to Sept 30th, Indianapolis averaged 30.9 points per game. Look for the over to improve to 5-2 this season in Colts games with spreads in a range of +3 to -3. Also, the Titans are a long-term 26-13 to the over as a home dog of 3 points or less! Look for the over to improve to 5-1 in the Titans last 6 games. This total has already moved to 44.5 in a lot of spots and note that the Colts are a long-term 10-2 to the over in road games in which Indianapolis is a favorite of less than 6 points and the O/U is 44.5 or more. Look for that impressive record to improve to 11-2 to the over when all is said and done in this one! 10* OVER the total in Tennessee

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #325 Sunday 8* Chicago Bears (+) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 4:25 ET - No offense intended to former Redskins QB Kirk Cousins but the results speak for themselves. The Vikings signal-caller had played his entire career with the Redskins prior to coming to Minnesota this season. That is noteworthy because Washington for the past 7 seasons ended their year with a loss (SU and ATS) whether it was a regular season game (5) or a playoff game (2). Full disclosure, Cousins was only the QB for 4 of those games but the point is that all 4 games were losses both SU and ATS and he certainly does NOT have a reputation as a winner in the biggest of games. This is a huge game for the Vikings. Win and they are in the playoffs. However, they face a Bears team that still has a chance to improve their seeding for the post-season and Chicago also would love to eliminate a division rival from making the post-season. That said, while the betting markets continue to back the Vikings here (line keeps moving up), I am happy to grab the value on the other side. The fact is that much is being made of Minnesota's improvement on offense since they made the switch at offensive coordinator. However, the Vikings two wins came against the Dolphins and the Lions. Those teams are a combined 12-18 on the season and Miami is truly even worse than their 7-8 record indicates. Either way, two wins over two losing teams is important to note because Minnesota is 0-5 SU this season against teams that are in the playoff field (Rams, Patriots, Seahawks, Saints, and these same Bears). The point is that now you have the Vikes laying nearly a full TD against a playoff team and they have not even beaten a playoff team this season! Also, Cousins reputation is not exactly one that exudes confidence in a potential "win or go home" game like this. Give me the Bears plus the points all day every day in a situation like this one! 8* CHICAGO

Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Game #309 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ Washington Redskins @ 4:25 ET - The Eagles post-season hopes are still alive. With a win here at Washington and a Vikings loss Philadelphia makes the playoffs. Certainly teams never try to worry about what the other teams are doing but, in the back of their minds, Eagles players know that a Minnesota loss is at least "possible" as the Vikes are playing an 11-4 Bears team that also still has motivation for playoff seeding purposes. Even without that, Philly would be going "all out" here as QB Nick Foles has stepped right in for the injured Carson Wentz and resumed his late season "magic" once again just like he did in last season's run that led to being Super Bowl Champions. The Eagles have won 4 of their last 5 games. The injury-depleted Redskins, once atop the NFC East not so long ago, have certainly gone the other direction. Washington has lost 5 of its last 6 games and this one has the makings of a road rout with Philadelphia fully capable of dominating the trenches on both sides of the ball. In terms of technical support here, the Eagles are 10-4 SU (and 9-5 ATS) when they enter a game on a SU winning streak of 2 or more games. Also, the Redskins are 0-3 SU (and ATS!) in their last 3 meetings with the Eagles and all 3 games were decided by a double digit margin. Look for that to be the case again in this one as well! Also, an interesting note here about Washington is they are 0-7 SU (and ATS!) in their final game of the season the last 7 years! 5 times it was a regular season game and 2 times it was a playoff game. All 7 seasons ended with a SU (and ATS!) loss and all 7 defeats came by 8 or more points. Considering that fact as well as the extremely injury-ravaged condition of the Redskins current roster, this one looks to take that "season-ending" ATS losing streak to 8 in a row! 10* PHILADELPHIA

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NFL Game #131 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oakland Raiders vs Denver Broncos @ 8:15 ET - The Raiders should give plenty of effort here with this possibly their last game in Oakland - they're moving to Vegas in 2020 and where they play in 2019 is still up in the air. That said, the Raiders will go all out for the full sixty minutes here but they don't win games with their defense. Oakland has allowed 30 points per game this season. In their 6 true home games this season they've allowed an average of 33 points per game. In other words, the key for the Raiders to win their game will be production on offense. That said, the Broncos numbers on defense away from home were helped by playing at Cincinnati and at Arizona for two of those games. In their other 5 road games this season, Denver allowed 26.6 points per game. As for the Oakland offense, they've averaged 266.3 passing yards per game the last 3 weeks. Also, the Raiders have averaged scoring 22.6 points per game their last 5 games. The Broncos are off back to back low-scoring losses and that is helping to keep this total lower than it should be. Prior to losing to Cleveland and at San Francisco, Denver averaged 27.7 points per game their 6 previous games. The over is 4-1 in Oakland's last 5 games. The over is 3-1 the past 2+ seasons in Raiders home games with a posted total between 42.5 and 45 points. The over is a long-term 42-28 when the Broncos enter a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games. I am well aware of the Broncos current long-term under streak. But also like taking the over based on all the facts above including Denver's last two losses both being low-scoring efforts. 10* OVER the total in Oakland

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #129 Sunday 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs (-) vs Seattle Seahawks @ 8:20 ET - While it may surprise some that the Chiefs are favored here considering the Seahawks long-term success at home, do note that KC is on a 16-5 ATS run as a road favorite. I like the fact that we can take the Chiefs off a loss here. Kansas City has yet to lose two straight games this season. The Seahawks are off a loss as well but they've already had a pair of 2-game losing streaks this season and this is a tough match-up for them. Seattle is going to have trouble keeping up with the #1 rated offense in the league. The Seahawks pass protection is much worse than that of the Chiefs. KC is 5-1-1 ATS on the road this season and also a long-term 21-9-1 ATS in games against NFC West opponents. Seattle is on a 3-7 ATS run in games played in the final 4 weeks of a regular season. The Chiefs are averaging 39 points per game on the road this season. The Seahawks have been held to 28 points or less in 10 of their 14 games this season. The Chiefs have scored 30 points or more in 10 of their last 14 games. While the Seahawks have the better defense in this match-up they've also been fortunate in terms of yardage allowed compared to points allowed. Additionally, their defensive edge over Kansas City is not nearly as significant as the Chiefs offensive edge over Seattle. Lay the small number with the away team and look for a road rout in this one! 10* KANSAS CITY

Total of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Game #127 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New Orleans Saints vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 4:25 ET - The Steelers passing offense ranks as one of the best in the NFL. The Saints pass defense ranks as one of the worst in the NFL. The Steelers offense has under-performed recently due to key mistakes at the wrong times. The Saints defense has looked better than it really is because they faced some struggling passing attacks that certainly aren't on the level of the Steelers. The point is that we're getting great value on this total as a result because Pittsburgh should have a huge day through the air. When the Saints have the ball you'll see one of the top balanced offenses in the league go to work and their point totals have been down in recent weeks but, once again, this leads to value here. New Orleans is going to take advantage of a Steelers defense that has given up at least 272 passing yards in 3 straight games! Prior to the win over the Patriots, Pittsburgh had allowed an average of 27 points per game in their 3 prior games. The over is a perfect 3-0 this season in Steelers non-conference games. Also, the over is a long-term 13-6 in Pittsburgh's games against NFC South opponents. Saints games are a long-term 41-25 to the over when they are at home and the posted total is 49.5 points or more. N.O. is on a current streak of 4 straight unders but this is adding to the value here by keeping this total lower than it should be. I would not be surprised to see this game finish with a cumulative total in the sixties as this turns into a back and forth shootout. 10* OVER the total in New Orleans  

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #101 Sunday 7* Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 1 ET - The Cowboys rate as the superior defense in this match-up but, statistically, the Buccaneers have the edge on the offensive side of the ball except for one key variable: turnovers. Tampa Bay has been done in by turnovers this season but they actually have moved the ball quite well for most of this season. As a result, we're getting solid line value here with the Bucs as a big dog and all the pressure on the Cowboys. Tampa Bay is playing for price and will play loose and relaxed. Dallas is still trying to lock up the NFC East after getting blasted 23-0 at Indianapolis last week. The Cowboys have an NFC East rivalry game next week at New York against the Giants so they really want to clinch the division this week. That is why, as noted above, all the pressure is on Dallas here. The Cowboys have a history of late season struggles and that includes their current long-term run of 40-62-4 ATS in December games. The Buccaneers are on a strong 8-3 ATS run when, in the 2nd half of a season, they're matched up with a team with a winning record. They've got a great shot at being the spoiler here. Even though the Cowboys won 5 straight games prior to last week's loss, all the games were decided by single digits with an average margin of victory of just 5.4 points. The Bucs have failed to cover only 1 of their past 5 games. 7* TAMPA BAY

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #114 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Houston Texans @ 1 ET - The Eagles are rejuvenated with Nick Foles taking over for the injured Carson Wentz and coming off the biggest Eagles upset win in 33 years last week. Philly took down the Rams in Los Angeles as a double digit dog for their biggest underdog upset victory since 1985. The Eagles are still very much alive in the playoff race but they need this win Sunday over the visiting Texans. Houston is 6-13 SU against NFC East opponents and also has not covered any of their 3 games against NFC East teams this season. Also, Houston is on a 1-8-1 ATS run in games played in the final 4 weeks of a regular season. The Eagles are on a 14-5-1 ATS run in games played against AFC opponents. Philly is on an 11-6 ATS run when, past the midway point of a season, they're facing a team with a winning record. So this match-up features a team that generally fades late against a team that has been "bringing it" in late season games. The Texans last 4 road wins came against teams that, entering Sunday, have a combined 21-36 record on this season. Now they face the defending Super Bowl champs that are fighting for their playoff lives and also playing their final home game of the season. The Eagles are strong in the trenches on both sides of the ball. This strength along both the offensive line and defensive line is a key to beating a team like the Texans. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #124 Saturday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers (-) vs Baltimore Ravnes @ 8:20 ET - Yes the Ravens have won 4 of their last 5 games. However, all 4 wins came against teams currently in last place in their respective divisions. Atlanta and Tampa Bay are tied for last place in the NFC South. The Bengals are in the cellar in the AFC North and the Raiders are in the basement in the AFC West. Those 4 teams are a combined 18 games under .500 on the season! However, all these recent wins for Baltimore are helping to keep this line lower than it should be and I won't hesitate to take advantage with a Chargers team that still has a shot at the #1 seed in the AFC post-season picture! The Ravens are 2-4 SU and ATS against teams with a winning record this season. The Chargers are 3-0 SU and ATS against teams with a winning record this season. Considering LA is also at home for this one and the line has dropped to a -4 as of early Saturday morning, there is great value with the small home favorite. 10* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Game of the Month Total - Rickenbach NFL Game #331 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints @ 8:15 ET - Perfect weather for an over tonight in Charlotte with light winds, clear skies, and mild temperatures. Additionally, a very favorable line move on this total has led to solid line value with the over in this match-up. While it is true that this is a divisional game with playoff implications, it is also true that the over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these teams. Also, the over is a perfect 5-0 in Carolina's last 5 home games. The over is also a perfect 3-0 in the Saints last 3 Monday Night games. Additionally, this line has been bouncing between 6 and 6.5 on New Orleans as the favorite. That is noteworthy as the over is 13-1 in Panthers games against NFC opponents when they are a home dog of more than 6 points. Look for Carolina to rise up big and put up plenty of points here at home as they seek playoff revenge from last year's post-season loss. However, the Panthers won't be able to stop the potent offense of New Orleans. The Saints scored 31 in the playoff win over Carolina and also scored at least 31 in each of the two regular season meetings with the Panthers last season. The Panthers are 13-5 to the over in their last 18 games against teams with a winning record. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER the total in Carolina

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #329 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Los Angeles Rams @ 8:20 ET - Carson Wentz is out. Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles steps in. Yes the Eagles are having a rough season and nothing has seemed to go their way but they still should not be this large of a favorite in this Sunday night game when you consider a number of factors. First off, Foles has certainly shown he is the type of player capable of rising to the occasion. Secondly, the NFC final wild card spot is still up for grabs so the Eagles are not without motivation here. Thirdly, the Rams have covered only 2 of their last 10 games! They continue to be over-inflated by the betting markets. Los Angeles is 0-2-2 ATS in their last 4 home games too! This is a revenge game for the Rams as the Eagles beat them here in LA last season. However, under coach Sean McVay, the Rams are 2-5-2 ATS (just 2 covers in 9 tries) when they are at home playing with revenge. Philadelphia is 10-6 ATS when, in the 2nd half of a season, they're facing a team with a winning record. Also, the Eagles are 4-2 ATS when off a divisional loss. Yes the Eagles are banged up but they still have plenty to play for here and one should expect a huge effort in a prime-time game with their season still having hopes of a push for a wild card spot. The Eagles won't quit until the final whistle here and the point-spread is inflated. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #327 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots @ 4:25 ET - Crazy late game finishes have resulted in 2 of the Steelers last 3 games staying under the total. Pittsburgh's kicker fell down on a field goal that would have tied last week's game and sent it into OT where then a score would have sent the game over. Two weeks prior to that the Steelers threw a pick in the end zone in the final minute of a game when they were near the goal line and a TD would have resulted in the game going to OT and over the total. That helped to keep this total this week a little lower than it should be as the Steelers have piled up an average of 320 passing yards per game their last 6 games! The issue for Pittsburgh is they've given up nearly 300 passing yards each of the past two weeks and now they face an angry Patriots team. You know Tom Brady and company are angry after the last season Miami Miracle win that the Pats watched unfold on the final play of the game. The Patriots did it to themselves though by not scoring enough points when they had the opportunity. In other words, they won't take their foot off the gas this week and with decent weather expected for this game thanks to light winds and the rain being finished earlier in the day, this game should turn into an absolute shootout. The Patriots are averaging 300.5 passing yards per game their last 6 games and both these teams average right around 300 passing yards per game on the season. New England has allowed at least 36 points in 5 of their 7 road games this season. In fact the Pats allowed at least 31 points in 4 of those 5 away games! The over is 9-5 when the Patriots, in the 2nd half of a season, are facing a team with a winning record. Also, the over is 11-2 in the Steelers last 13 home games. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #326 Sunday 10* Top Play San Francisco 49ers (+) vs Seattle Seahawks @ 4:05 ET - This is the Niners final home game against a division rival this season (host NFC North foe Chicago next week) and I look for them to make the most of it. San Francisco is catching Seattle at the right time to spring the upset. The Seahawks are off their Monday night win over Minnesota that was a much closer game than the final score would indicate. Now the Seahawks are on the road and on a short week and are facing a 49ers team that has averaged 345.5 passing yards per game their past two games! The first of those two games was at Seattle and the Niners outgained the Seahawks by 121 yards but lost 43 to 16 on the scoreboard. That is a statistical anomaly that we can now take advantage of in terms of public perception this week. The 49ers are 6-2 ATS as a divisional home dog of more than 3 points when facing a team off a SU win. Yes the Seahawks got a big win over the Vikings Monday but Seattle went 2-6 ATS in their final 4 regular season games the past two seasons. Look for that trend to resume here. 10* SAN FRANCISCO

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #314 Sunday 8* Indianapolis Colts (-) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 1 ET - Both teams are off key divisional wins but the Colts are 5-1 ATS their last 6 when they are off a game versus the Texans. Also, Indianapolis is 10-1 ATS when they are at home off a divisional game and are facing an opponent with a winning percentage greater than .600. Remember too that Colts head coach Frank Reich used to be with the Eagles and helped lead them to their Super Bowl victory last year. You can see how Philadelphia is now struggle without Reich and the other key factor here is that he knows the Cowboys well from having spent the past two season as an offensive coordinator with Philly. In the 3 meaningful games against the Cowboys (remember that season-ending one last year was meaningless), Reich led the Eagles offense to average 29 points per game against the Cowboys in his two seasons with Philadelphia. He and the Colts will get the job done again here in a key game for them while Dallas falls flat after yet another big victory aided by the officiating..a recurring them in recent games for the Cowboys. Reality finally sets in this week on the road. 8* INDIANAPOLIS

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NFL Game #309 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati Bengals vs Oakland Raiders @ 1 ET - Late season game between two teams that have had very disappointing seasons and that also possess two of the worst defensive units in the league. When you also factor in that weather will be very mild in Cincinnati this afternoon (temperatures reaching into the 50s) and that the winds will be light and no precipitation is expected, you have the perfect set-up for an over. In terms of technical edges, note that Oakland is 17-2 to the over in when they face a non-divisional AFC opponent that is off B2B SU losses. Also, the Bengals are 5-1 to the over this season in games with a point-spread range between +3 and -3. The Raiders have averaged scoring 24 points per game their last 4 games but also have allowed 29 points per game on the season. The Bengals have allowed 34 points per game their last 7 games. Also, Cincinnati did average a solid 25.5 points per game in their first 6 home games this season before they were held to just 10 points in their most recent home game. The Bengals bounce back big here and take advantage of Raiders weak defense particularly off that upset win of the Steelers last week. 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #303 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Jets vs Houston Texans @ 4:30 ET - The weather is very nice for mid-December in East Rutherford, NJ. The winds will not be an issue, there will be cloud cover but no rain, and downright balmy temperatures around 50 degrees for this one. Not only that, Jets QB Sam Darnold is listed as probable for this game and should be even better in his 2nd game back (after returning at Buffalo last week). This time Darnold is at home and he and the Jets should be able to take advantage of a Texans pass defense that has allowed nearly 400 passing yards in EACH of its past two games. Houston has now allowed over 250 passing yards in 5 of its last 6 games. The flip side of the equation here is also good news in terms of expecting an over in this match-up. The Texans, prior to being held to just 21 points versus the Colts last week, had averaged 29.4 points per game in their 5 prior games. Houston's offense should have no trouble bouncing back from the home loss to to Indianapolis and putting up a ton of points on a Jets defense that has allowed 34.8 points per game in its last 4 home games. The Texans are 3-0 to the over this season when off an ATS loss in a game that was decided SU by a margin of 5 or less points. The Jets are a perfect 5-0 to the over in their last 5 games against AFC South opponents. That is since the start of the 2016 season. Prior to that, the Jets also 3-0 to the over in games against the Texans. Combined trending of 11-0 / 100% PERFECT here in favor of a high-scoring match-up. 10* OVER the total in New York Jets

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #301 Thursday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:20 ET - This is contrarian all the way. The Chiefs have won 9 straight meetings with the Chargers and yet opened up as only a 3-point favorite at home here. Of course the line has already gone up a little (3.5 as of early game day morning) but an upset is likely here. The Chargers out-gained the Chiefs by nearly 200 yards in the first meeting in Los Angeles but fell short on the scoreboard. Payback time here. LA is on a 12-3-1 ATS run as a road dog in divisional games. Kansas City is just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games. 10* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NFL Game #133 Monday 10* Top Play Minnesota Vikings (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 8:15 ET - The Seahawks are off a huge win and have won 3 straight games. However, Mike Zimmer's Vikings are finally getting a shot at revenge after that unbelievable playoff loss (missed chip shot FG) ended Minnesota's season. Note that Zimmer entered this season with ATS records of 25-9 when playing with revenge and 11-1 when facing an opponent off a straight up win by 10 or more points. Here Zimmer's Vikings catch Seattle off a 27 point thrashing of the 49ers. Also, in games 13 through 16 of a season Minnesota has gone 8-1 ATS as a road dog when they are facing an opponent off a home game. This game is sandwiched between divisional games for the Seahawks as they are off the Niners and then play them again at San Francisco Sunday. Seattle is 1-6 ATS in games played week before facing SF. The Seahawks were actually outgained by more than 100 yards by the 49ers last week but won the game thanks to 3 turnovers. In fact, Seattle's defense has not impressed and they allowed 28 points per game their 4 prior games and certainly should have allowed much more than 16 versus the Niners last week. Minnesota's defense did struggle at Foxboro last week versus the Patriots but, prior to that, they had been rock solid and I am expect them to return to top form in this crucial game filled with post-season impact. Grab the points  here but expect the upset. 10* MINNESOTA

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #119 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Chicago Bears vs Los Angeles Rams @ 8:20 ET - Yes it will be cold in Chicago - as you would expect in mid-December - but no precipitation and light winds means that both teams will have the full capabilities of the playbook in this one. The key for the Bears is getting Mitchell Trubisky back at QB and the fact that they're facing a Rams defense that certainly has not impressed overall this season. As for the Los Angeles offense however, that is another story entirely. The Rams are a juggernaut when they have a ball and, keep in mind, this Bears defense did struggle against QB Aaron Rodgers (remember that 2nd half performance even though he was hurt) as well as QB Tom Brady this season. The point is that, as good as the Chicago defense has been, they have struggled when facing strong passing attacks. QB Jared Goff and company certainly fit the bill in that regard plus they also have Todd Gurley at RB which gives them an extremely balanced offense which, in turn, keeps defenses off balance! In their final 4 games of the regular season the past two years, LA has gone 7-1 to the over. The Bears are 4-0 to the over this season in games played against teams with a winning record. I mentioned Chicago's pass defense struggles against better passing attacks this season and note the Bears also gave up 251 passing yards versus TB, 246 passing yards versus Minnesota, and 380 passing yards versus Miami. This is in addition to the big performances Rodgers and Brady had against this defense. Look for a huge game from Goff here. The Bears are averaging 31 points per game their last 9 game and the Rams are scoring an average of 35 points per game on this season. Take advantage of the downward line move in this one as it should fly over the total. 8* OVER the total in Chicago

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #129 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - Yes the Cowboys have a rest edge here. However, they are off a huge upset win of the Saints. Also, the Eagles lost to Dallas in Philadelphia 4 weeks ago. The revenge-seeking Eagles are 15-5 ATS as a divisional road dog. The road team is a perfect 3-0 ATS the last 3 games in this series and Philly has covered 3 of their last 4 games at Dallas. The Eagles are 6-1 ATS when off a game against the Redskins. Also, Philadelphia is gaining confidence with back to back wins for the first time this season as the Super Bowl champions look to get their swagger back. They can tie up the Cowboys for 1st in the division with a win here so there is no concern that it is "too late" in the Eagles locker room. Could the Dallas upset of the Saints leave the Cowboys a little flat here? Note that the Eagles, in divisional games, when facing an opponent off a SU home dog win, have gone 7-1 ATS! Last but not least, when head coach Doug Pederson is off a divisional game (beat Redskins last week) and playing with revenge, has gone 5-1 ATS with the Eagles. Yes I am aware of the injury issues for the Eagles secondary but look for the road dog to rise up here after the embarrassment of that home loss 4 weeks ago with their powerful defensive line play being the difference in this rematch. On the other side of the ball, Carson Wentz and company had over 400 yards of offense against the Cowboys in the first game and also did it again with over 400 yards versus the Redskins last week. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #131 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oakland Raiders vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 4:25 ET - The weather will be favorable in Oakland and this match-up features two teams who will play at a fast pace in this match-up. The Steelers have thrown the ball 150 times in their last 3 games while running it just 44 times. Look for Pittsburgh to get a big lead here and then Oakland will be forced to play catch-up and the only way they can do that is through the air. The Raiders have averaged 24 points per game their last 3 games and threw for 271 yards last week while completing 29 of 38 passes. The issue for Oakland is they can't stop teams as the Raiders have now allowed 34 points or more in 4 of their last 6 games. The over is a perfect 3-0 in Oakland's last 3 games. The Raiders are also 4-0 to the over in their last 4 games against AFC North teams. Of course the Steelers are going to be very hungry here and won't take their foot off of the gas after back to back frustrating losses. That holds some significance for sure here because Oakland is actually 17-1 to the over in when they face a non-divisional AFC opponent that is off B2B SU losses. Look for a shootout to develop in this one as that 94% angle gets the cash again. 10* OVER the total in Oakland

Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Game #121 Sunday 8* New York Giants (-) @ Washington Redskins @ 1 ET - I am aware of the fact that Giants WR Odell Beckham Jr is out for this game. However, the Redskins are in far worse shape as they are down to their 3rd string QB and dealing with an injury-depleted offensive line. That said, I also like the fact that the Giants are seeking payback for a home loss to the Redskins in late October. Note that New York head coach Pat Shurmur entered this season 8-1 ATS when playing with revenge and facing an opponent off a divisional game (Washington was at Philadelphia last week) and also 8-1 ATS when playing with revenge and facing an opponent off B2B SU losses (the Redskins have lost 3 straight). Additionally, the Giants are 12-1 ATS in divisional games when they are on the road off a non-divisional SU win and facing a team off a SU loss. New York is also 4-0 ATS in games played on grass this season. Washington is 11-22 ATS after playing on Monday Night Football. Look for the short rest to again be a factor for the Redskins as the Giants, supported by their 32-3 (91%) ATS trends noted above, roll to a road rout in this one. 8* NEW YORK GIANTS

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #107 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts @ 1 ET - The Texans have only truly played well in terms of pass defense once in their past 5 games and that was because that was the game that opposing QB Alex Smith suffered that devastating ankle injury on the 1st drive of the 3rd quarter. That completely changed the complexion of the game. That said, other than that game, the Texans have allowed an average of 296 passing yards per game dating back to their October 25th game hosting the Dolphins. The point is that Andrew Luck and Company should have another big game against this Houston defense just like they did in the late September match-up in Indianapolis. The Colts are off a shutout loss but threw the ball 52 times (against just 16 rushes) last week. Of course an emphasis on passing is great for an over and Indy getting shutout last week is definitely a fluke result that is helping to give us some line value this week. Indianapolis entered that game having scored an average of 33 points per game in their 8 prior games! The Texans enter this game having scored an average of 35 points per game in their last 3 home games! The Colts are a perfect 4-0 to the over in road games with a posted total of 49.5 points or more. 8* OVER the total in Houston

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #101 Thursday 10* Top Play Jacksonville Jaguars (+) @ Tennessee Titans @ 8:20 ET - The Jaguars have had a disappointing season but that makes games like this, at this late stage in the season, even more important. In other words, here is a chance to really put a dent in the playoff hopes of a hated divisional foe. You can bank on Jacksonville wanting to make the most of this primetime opportunity with the entire NFL world watching. These are the games that see underachieving teams rise to the occasion. Riding the momentum of a shutout win over another division rival (Colts) last week, look for another strong effort from the Jags this week. Yes, Cody Kessler's career numbers at QB may not impress but he played the last two seasons in Cleveland. In other words, cut Kessler a little slack and also look for Leonard Fournette to help take some of the pressure off with some big runs. In terms of technical support here, the Jaguars are 9-1 ATS when they have a losing record, are entering a game off a SU win of less than 7 points, and are facing a divisional foe that is off a non-divisional match-up. That system fits perfectly here. Also, Jacksonville is 8-0 ATS when they are off a game versus a divisional foe in which they scored less than 7 points! Last but certainly not least, the Jags are a stellar 11-2 ATS when they dogs of less than 6 points and off a game in which they allowed less than 10 points. Look for the road dog, very strong defensively, to get revenge for the upset loss to Tennessee at home early this season as a double digit favorite. even if the Jaguars fall short of the outright win over the Titans, look for the points to still prove to be enough for the cover in this one. Supported by combined ATS trends of 28-3 (90%) per the above. 10* JACKSONVILLE

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #380 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Washington Redskins @ 8:15 ET - The Redskins are a very banged up team and the Eagles will take advantage. We're getting line value here because it has, without a doubt, been a sub-par season (to put it mildly) for the defending Super Bowl Champs. The fact is that, with a win Monday night, Philadelphia moves into a 2nd place tie with Washington in the NFC East and will be just 1 game behind the Cowboys. That said, guess what is up next on the Eagles schedule. A trip to Dallas on Sunday. In other words, the season is still very much alive for Philly despite the ups and downs they've endured. The Redskins offense is loaded with injuries and it is much more than just QB Alex Smith's devastating injury that has them in trouble here. Washington's offensive line has practically been gutted by injuries. The Eagles powerful defensive line will take advantage. Note that Philadelphia is 7-1 SU (and 6-2 ATS) in home games with an O/U posted between 42.5 and 45 points. Also, the Redskins are on a long-term 10-23 ATS run in Monday night games including 0-5 in recent seasons! The Eagles saved their season with last week's comeback win over the Giants and the way they played that 2nd half is the way they will come out and attack the Redskins right away beginning with the opening kick-off in this one. The result should be a home rout for the much healthier offense in this match-up. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #353 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Steelers vs Los Angeles Chargers @ 8:20 ET - The Steelers pulled off the unbelievable last Sunday. Pittsburgh scored just 17 points on 527 yards of offense. I remember it vividly (and sickeningly) as the Steelers Over was my Top Play last Sunday. The final nail in the coffin (among 4 Pittsburgh turnovers) was when the Steelers ended up blowing a 1st and goal from the 3 opportunity in the final minutes by throwing a pick in the end zone on a horrible pass from Ben Roethlisberger. Just a completely stupid pass that never should have been thrown and that cost me a sure totals winner. But we get our money back this week as the Steelers offense is likely to again move the ball very well (especially now that they are back home) but this time look for a lot less in the way of turnovers and missed opportunities. Not only should Pittsburgh put up a ton of points, Philip Rivers and Company certainly are going to be hard to stop. The Chargers offense has plenty of momentum after scoring 45 points last week and this match-up features two of the top passing offenses in the league. The over is 10-2 in the Steelers last 12 home games. Also, when Pittsburgh is a home favorite of more than 3 points against an AFC foe and it is after Game 6 in a season, the over has gone a stellar 10-1 in Steelers games! I know the Chargers have trended under in recent games as well as in December games the past two seasons but this particular match-up is set up perfectly to be a Rivers vs Roethlisberger shootout. The loss of LA running back Melvin Gordon to a knee injury means that Los Angeles will rely even more heavily on the pass in this one. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Game #376 Sunday 10* Top Play New England Patriots (-) vs Minnesota Vikings @ 4:25 ET - The Patriots have won 7 of their last 8 games and when they win SU they almost always cover. The SU winner in New England's games this season is, in fact, 10-1 ATS this season and I fully expect a dominating home win and cover here. The Patriots are 8-2 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points and also have gone 8-2 ATS in December games the past two seasons. The Vikings wins this season have all come against teams that currently have a losing record on the year. In their 3 games against teams that currently have a winning record on the season, Minnesota has gone 0-3 and all 3 losses came by 5 or more points. Those Vikings losses came against the Bears, Saints, and Rams. As for the Patriots they've played 4 games against teams that currently have a winning record. New England has gone 4-0 in those games and only one win came by less than 7 points. The average margin of victory in those 4 games was 8 points. The Pats have beaten the Colts, Texans, Bears, and Chiefs. I'll take the team that has risen to the occasion when its been required this season and I feel we're getting good value here as the spread on this game has dropped through the week. The Patriots are 12-1-1 ATS when they are off a divisional road game and now facing a non-divisional opponents. Look for the Pats to do it again Sunday after last week's blowout win at New York against the Jets. Note that last week's win for the Vikings over Green Bay was the first time in 5 tries that Minnesota has covered a game following a divisional game. After that big win over the Pack, look for the Vikes to fall flat here against a Patriots team on a typical December "mission" as the Pats are known for late season success, especially at Foxboro! 10* NEW ENGLAND

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #371 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Oakland Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 4:05 ET - The Raiders aren't going to be able to stop the Chiefs highly potent offensive attack in this one. However, I also expect the Kansas City defense (allowing 34 points and 457 yards on the road this season) to give up some big plays to the Oakland offense in this one. The result should be plenty of points here and so I am happy to go contrarian here and fade the downward move we've seen on this total as of early game day morning. Note that the over is 5-1 in KC's road games this season. Also, each of the Raiders past two games have gone over the total and the Oakland defense has allowed 30 points per game on the season. The Chiefs defense has allowed at least 21 points in all 6 of their road games this season. Couple that with the fact that Kansas City's offense is averaging 37 points per game on the season and you can see why I am expecting this game total to finish with close to 60 points. Grab the value as the Raiders will move the ball on the road-adverse KC defense but simply can not stop Mahomes and Company here. 8* OVER the total in Oakland 

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #358 Sunday 8* Atlanta Falcons (-) vs Baltimore Ravens @ 1 ET - Grab the money line in this one if you have access to it. As of very early game day morning the spread on this one is in the 2.5 point range but the Falcons are available in the -125 range on the money line which is a great value compared to laying the points. I look for Atlanta to bounce back strong here after a Thanksgiving night loss that saw them lose by 14 at New Orleans despite out-gaining the Saints. The Falcons were simply done in by turnovers but that is unlikely to happen again here. The Ravens have been horrible when it comes to forcing turnovers. Also, Baltimore enters this game having turned the ball over 6 times in their last 3 road games. The Ravens are off back to back wins but both games were at home and plus they faced the floundering Bengals and Raiders! Now Baltimore is on the road and facing a Falcons team that is MUCH better than their 4-7 record would indicate. The Ravens are on a 1-7 ATS run in games played on turf. Also, Baltimore is on a 2-8 ATS run in games against NFC foes. The Falcons are 14-8 ATS in games with a posted total in a range of 42.5 to 49 points and also 3-1 (SU and ATS) when off a loss to a division rival. The home team bounces back STRONG this week as they also have the rest edge over the Ravens since they played on Thanksgiving and Baltimore played on Sunday. 8* ATLANTA

Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Game #301 New Orleans Saints (-) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - The Saints are 10-0 SU their last 10 games and 9-0 ATS their last 9 games. While the Cowboys certainly deserve some respect here, I am happy to lay the points here (currently some 7's available as of Wednesday evening) with one of the best and most balanced offenses in the league. Not only does that describe New Orleans, the Saints also are the #1 rush defense in the NFL! That is significant here because the Cowboys are one of the worst passing teams in the leagues. Dallas relies on Ezekiel Elliott and the ground game for success on offense and that is a problem here. Not only is Elliott up against the #1 ranked run defense, he also has been a little bothered by his hip heading into this game. Elliott is probable but is he really 100%? It may not matter anyway as the Saints are just too much offense for other teams to keep up with. The fact is that New Orleans is firing on all cylinders right now and I also like the fact that the Saints are 4-0 ATS in road games with a posted total of 49.5 points or more this season. The Cowboys are on a 1-4 ATS run in home games with a posted total of 49.5 points or more. Also, the Saints are a long-term 9-3 SU and ATS in their last dozen meetings with the Cowboys. Dallas has won 3 straight games and faced the Redskins, Falcons and Eagles. The Cowboys average margin in those 3 games was 6 points. The Saints also have recently faced the Falcons and Eagles plus also faced the Redskins in early October. The average margin of New Orleans 3 victories was 26 points - a 20 point variance from the Cowboys margin. The fact is I would not be surprised to see the Saints win this one by 20 but certainly I am expecting at least a double digit margin here. 10* NEW ORLEANS

MNF Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Game #273 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans @ 8:15 ET - The Texans are 8-1 to the over in home games against a divisional opponent in which the posted total is less than 43 points. The fact is that this total is too low especially considering that Titans QB Marcus Mariota is now expected to play. Tennessee has gone 11-2 to the over when they are playing the 2nd of back to back road games. Last week they were at Indianapolis (and gave up 38 points by the way) so the system is in play this week! The Titans had a poor game on offense against the Colts but Mariota got hurt in the first half and that was a factor. The two prior games Tennessee had averaged 31 points per game. As for Houston, they enter this game on a 7-0 game winning streak and their offense has its stride. The Texans have averaged 28 points per game their last 3 games. The over is 11-5 in the meetings between these teams in Houston. 10* OVER the total in Houston 

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #271 Sunday 10* Top Play Green Bay Packers (+) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 8:20 ET - Both the Packers and Vikings are off losses last week and, as a result, with the Bears win over the Lions on Thanksgiving Day, Chicago is running away with the NFC North Division. That means this game features a match-up of two teams desperately trying to stay alive in the playoff picture. Even though the first game between these teams this season finished in a tie, this truly is a revenge game for the Packers. Green Bay, at home, had a 13-point lead entering the 4th quarter of that match-up. Also, the Packers gave up a touchdown AND the 2-point conversion with less than a minute to go in the game. Suffice to say, Aaron Rodgers and Company have had this game circled in red ever since! Keep in mind the Vikings were also helped in that 4th quarter comeback by a controversial roughing the passer penalty. I am well aware of the fact that Green Bay is 0-5 SU on the road this season. As long-time followers know I tend to be a contrarian and this is particularly true in the NFL. Ask yourself this: how can the Vikings be favored by only about a FG here when they are 9-2 SU their last 11 at home and Packers are 0-5 SU their last 5 on the road? Exactly! When things look too easy they truly never are and I expect Green Bay to finally get that first road win Sunday night in a crucial game. I will grab the points, currently available at +3.5, as added "insurance" though should the Packers fall just short. GB is off a Thursday game so they do have extra rest and the Packers are 5-0 ATS when off a Thursday game. The Packers match-up very well with the Vikings and their biggest weakness (run defense) is one the Vikings (#31 out of 32 for rush offense) are unlikely to be able to take advantage of. That said, I'll take Rodgers over Kirk Cousins as the Vikings QB is 4-12 in primetime games in his career! 10* GREEN BAY PACKERS

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #265 Sunday 8* Miami Dolphins (+) @ Indianapolis Colts @ 4:25 ET - The Colts have won 4 straight games for the first time in 4 years. The Dolphins enter off their bye week. Miami has been struggling but has the rest edge here and will avenge a 2015 home loss to Indianapolis. The Dolphins out-gained the Colts by nearly 100 yards in that game but lost by 6 points. Miami is 7-1 ATS the last 8 times they've faced the Colts at Indianapolis! The Colts entered this season having gone 1-10 ATS when they are facing an opponent with a winning percentage over .400 that is off a SU/ATS loss. That system fits here as the Dolphins were crushed by the Packers before their bye week. Also, Indianapolis is in a divisional sandwich here as they faced the Titans last week and have Jacksonville on deck. The Colts are 2-7 ATS when they have a game with the Jaguars on deck. Indianapolis is 1-5 ATS when off a game in which they scored more than 35 points. Also, the Colts are 1-6 ATS when off a win by a double digit margin against an AFC opponent. A lot of technical data to like here and this one sets up perfectly from a situational standpoint as well. Grab the generous points. 8* MIAMI

Total of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #269 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Denver Broncos vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 4:25 ET - Perfect weather in Denver this afternoon. Light winds, no precipitation and temperatures in the forties. You really can't ask for much better in the Rocky Mountains in late November. That said, the offenses should thrive in this match-up. I like the fact that both teams are off of last second wins last week as well. That means plenty of confidence for each offense here and a possible letdown from each defense after the Steelers took advantage of facing a slumping Jaguars offense while the Broncos did allow 479 yards to the Chargers last week and were fortunate to win. Pittsburgh, dating back to last season and including post-season action, is on an 8-4 run to the over their last dozen games. The over is 6-2 the last 8 times the Broncos and Steelers have met. Denver is in the lower third of the NFL for defense but actually in the top third of the league for offense. The point is that the fact that Broncos have trended under this season is a bit of a statistical anomaly and we can take advantage here as it has resulted in a posted total that is lower than it should be in this one. Pittsburgh has one of the top passing attacks in the league and Rivers and company threw for nearly 400 yards in the Chargers loss to the Broncos last week and I expect Roethlisberger and company to have similar production in this one. 10* OVER the total in Denver