*action on pitchers* MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in St Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 1:15 ET (Game 1 of 2) - This is first game of doubleheader and will be a hot afternoon game in St Louis with wind likely blowing out toward left center and I like the over no matter who the starting pitchers are in this game. Make this bet with action on the pitchers. The Pirates are expected to start Brubaker and he is 0-6 with a 4.60 ERA in his dozen starts this season. The Cardinals are expected to start Liberatore and he has been hit hard in 2 of his 3 starts this season and allowed 3 homers in most recent outing. None of his three starts have resulted in an under and the last two have been overs. I know that the Pirates are not known for offense but yesterday's 7-5 Cardinals win is a sign of things to come in this series. Neither team's bullpen has been particularly strong and the Cards have allowed 5.3 runs per game last 3 games and Pirates have allowed 7.3 runs per game last 3 games. 10* OVER 9.5 in St Louis (Game 1 of 2)

*action on pitchers* MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:07 ET - I am upset with myself that I chose an NL total for my big play yesterday instead of again riding the Orioles as they continue to trend over. That turned what could have been a 2-1 day into a 1-2 day and I will not make the same mistake today. I know Manoah has pitched very well for the Blue Jays but Baltimore is feeling it right now at the plate. As we have seen with the Phillies recent hot streak, hitting is contagious. The Orioles won 10-7 yesterday and the over is now 10-2-1 their last 13 games. Baltimore has scored an average of 5.6 runs per game last 10 games. The Blue Jays, despite an under yesterday, have gone over the total in 10 of last 14 games and Toronto did score 6 runs on 11 hits in yesterday's big win. I don't care who the starting pitchers are here as I like the way these teams are swinging the bats plus the Orioles bullpen has been worse on the road than at home and the Blue Jays bullpen has an ugly 4.68 ERA at home. I will mention however that the expected starter for Toronto here is Kyle Bradish. The over is 3-0 in his last 3 starts and he has an 8.17 ERA in those outings and an ugly 6.45 ERA in his 8 starts this season. There have only been 9 unders in the last 29 meetings between these AL East foes. We get a low total because Mahoah is the scheduled starter for the Blue Jays. Over his last 3 starts he had one with a 1.50 WHIP, one at home in which he allowed 3 earned runs, and his start before that he allowed 2 homers. In other words, he has been solid but not unhittable. No matter the starting pitching match-up here, the lineups stay red hot. 10* OVER 8.5 in Toronto

*action on pitchers* MLB Monday 8* Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -130 vs Miami Marlins @ 7:05 ET - This line was as high as -160 and has dropped to the -130 range. I love fading line moves like this. Regardless of the pitchers here this is a play for me. The Phillies are the better overall team and had won 9 straight games before yesterday's embarrassing loss. After getting crushed by the Diamondbacks yesterday, look for the Phillies to immediately respond and resume the winning. The Marlins also had been winning but they lost yesterday and are now just 12-17 on the road this season. We get line value here because Alcantara has been pitching so well for Miami and Nola's ERA at home is not as impressive. But there is some hidden value in these numbers as though Alcantara has a 2.05 ERA on the road and Nola has a 4.41 ERA at home, check out the WHIP. Alcantara has a 1.08 WHIP away from home and Nola has a 0.78 WHIP as a host. The point is that Nola has deserved better and, by the way, the Phillies are a perfect 3-0 in his last 3 home starts. Also, the Phillies are 6-0 L6 games against a right-handed starter. The chances that both starters get scratched here rank somewhere between slim and none! I like this play regardless of starters but, the point is, either way we are going to be testing a 100% PERFECT trend here. Phillies scored average of 7 runs per game in their 9 game winning streak. Marlins have had one 12-run outburst recently but in their other 9 games out of their last 10, they are averaging 4.4 runs per game. Better team at home and getting line value and I will take it. 8* PHILADELPHIA -130

*action on pitchers* MLB Sunday 8* Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 runs -110 vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 1:35 ET - No matter who pitches here I like the red hot Phillies over a Diamondbacks team that has now lost 11 of 16 after losing 4-0 here yesterday. Philadelphia just recently fired Joe Girardi and they have now won 9 straight since the managerial change. While the Phillies have won 9 straight (and 7 of last 8 by margin of at least 2 runs, including yesterday) and have scored an average of 7 runs per victory in this streak, Arizona has scored an average of only 2 runs per game last 11 losses and had lost 16 of 24 games before entering this series off rare B2B road wins - albeit over a bad Reds team. Also, while I am making this play regardless of pitchers, note that the Phillies are 7-4 in the 11 starts Ranger Suarez has made this season and he has allowed just 2 earned runs in each of his last 2 starts. Philadelphia has been red hot and is fired up about having now begun a homestand where they can keep the winning going and I know there is some uncertainty about the Dbacks starter here. Could be Kyle Nelson who normally pitches out of the bullpen or Luke Weaver who has not started a game in majors since last season and went 4-15 combined his past two seasons in MLB. Whoever is on the mound for Arizona faces a confident Philadelphia lineup. Hot Phillies over the generally road-adverse Diamondbacks and we get an excellent run line value here with the home favorite at a pick'em price if laying the 1.5 runs. The fact is we have the better and hotter lineup in this match-up. Happy to test the 9-0 / 100% PERFECT RUN with the home team in this one and, because this is run line, will mention that the perfect trends tested are 4-0 L4 overall and 5-0 L5 at home in term of Phillies wins by at least a 2-run margin! 8* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 runs -110

*action on pitchers* MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Washington Nationals vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 1:35 ET - The Nationals won 8-6 yesterday. It was yet another high-scoring game for Washington and the over is now 6-2 last 8 in Nats games. Milwaukee is expected to start Jason Alexander here. I know he has solid numbers in limited action thus far this season but he was very fortunate last start as he walked 2 and gave up 7 hits for 9 baserunners in 5 innings yet he allowed only 1 earned run. Alexander's good fortune runs out here as the Nationals have scored an average of 8 runs per game last 6 home games! Overall the over is 14-6 last 20 Washington games. The Brewers are not known for high-scoring games yet the over is on an 11-4 run last 15 games after yet another high-scoring loss yesterday. Milwaukee should enjoy plenty of success at the plate as whether it is Lee who gets the start or Espino, neither has been a starter long-term this season. Espino has been working out of the pen and Evan Lee is a rookie. No matter the starting pitchers here, I am playing the over as both bullpens have been shaky of late and the recent over trending for both these clubs fully supports this play as well. 10* OVER 9.5 in Washington

*action on pitchers* MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in Cleveland Guardians vs Oakland A's @ 11:35 AM ET - Sometimes all it takes is one to get a team going. The A's had been struggling to score runs and had been mired in a losing streak but I look for yesterday's 10-5 win to give them a jolt and get them going again at the plate. At the same time, I do expect the Guardians to respond here at home. That is why I like the over here no matter who the pitchers are. Cleveland is 9-3 last 12 games and has scored an average of 5 runs in these dozen games. The A's are expected to start lefty Cole Irvin and the Guardians have had just 6 unders in last 18 games versus a southpaw starter. Oakland enters this game with just 2 unders last 9 games. Cleveland expected to start Cal Quantrill and he allowed 2 homers in most recent start as did Irvin. Regardless of starting pitchers here I like taking advantage of the low total here in this early day game Sunday given the situation being absolutely conducive to a high-scoring game in my opinion. 10* OVER 7.5 in Cleveland

*action on pitchers* MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles @ 4:10 ET - The Orioles have gone over the total to the tune of 8-2-1 last 11 games despite yesterday's 8-1 loss staying just under the total of 9.5 runs! Regardless of who the starting pitchers are here on Saturday I like the over. The fact each team reached double digits in hits Thursday is a good sign the lineups are in sync right now. The Orioles struggled at the plate yesterday but will bounce right back today. The Royals now have scored at least 7 runs in 3 straight games to get back on track and the Orioles have one shutout win last 11 games but have allowed an average of 6 runs per game the other 10 games. Baltimore has one shutout loss the last 10 games but has averaged scoring 5 runs per game the other 9 games. The Orioles are expected to start Tyler Wells here and he is off a road win but Baltimore was 0-5 in his road starts prior to that one this season and he had an ERA of 5+ on the road prior to that rare strong effort! Kansas City is expected to start Daniel Lynch and the Royals are 1-3 in his 4 home starts this season. Lynch has struggled and has an unimpressive 1.54 WHIP as a starter this season plus an 8.40 ERA last 3 starts. The Orioles bullpen has been worse on the road than at home. The Royals bullpen has a 5.38 ERA in home games this season. 10* OVER 9.5 in Kansas City

*action on pitchers* MLB Saturday 8* Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 runs -110 vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 4:05 ET - No matter who pitches here I like the red hot Phillies over a Diamondbacks team that has now lost 10 of 15 after losing 7-5 here yesterday. Philadelphia just recently fired Joe Girardi and they have now won 8 straight since the managerial change. While the Phillies have won 8 straight (and 6 of last 7 by margin of at least 2 runs, including yesterday) and have scored an average of 7.5 runs per victory in this streak, Arizona has scored an average of only 2.2 runs per game last 10 losses and had lost 16 of 24 games before entering this series off rare B2B road wins - albeit over a bad Reds team. Also, while I am making this play regardless of pitchers, note that Zack Wheeler 3-2 with a 1.73 ERA in 6 home starts this season. Philadelphia has been red hot and is fired up about having now begun a homestand and I know Madison Bumgarner is a solid pitcher for the Diamondbacks but he has a 5.82 ERA last 3 starts. Now he faces a confident Philadelphia lineup. Hot Phillies over the generally road-adverse Diamondbacks and we get an excellent run line value here with the home favorite at a pick'em price if laying the 1.5 runs. The fact is we have the better and hotter lineup in this match-up. Happy to test the 8-0 / 100% PERFECT RUN with the home team in this one and, because this is run line, will mention that the perfect trends tested are 3-0 L3 overall and 4-0 L4 at home in term of Phillies wins by at least a 2-run margin! 8* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 runs -110

*action on pitchers* MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles @ 8:10 ET - The Orioles have gone over the total to the tune of 8-1-1 last 10 games! Regardless of who the starting pitchers are here I like the over. The fact each team reached double digits in hits yesterday is a good sign the lineups are in sync right now. The Royals now have scored at least 7 runs in B2B games to get back on track and the Orioles have one shutout win last 10 games but have allowed an average of 6 runs per game the other 9 games. Baltimore has one shutout loss the last 9 games but has averaged scoring 6 runs per game the other 8 games. The Orioles are expected to start Bruce Zimmermann here and he has an 8.44 ERA last 3 starts and has allowed an incredible 9 homers in his last 2 road starts! Kansas City is expected to start Jon Heasley and the Royals are 0-5 in his 5 starts this season. Heasley has been okay but has an unimpressive 1.70 WHIP and 4.62 ERA as a starter this season. The Orioles bullpen has been worse on the road than at home. The Royals bullpen has a 5.52 ERA in home games this season. 10* OVER 9.5 in Kansas City

*action on pitchers* MLB Friday 8* Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -130 vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 7:05 ET - No matter who pitches here I like the red hot Phillies over a Diamondbacks team that had lost 9 of 12 before rare B2B wins including rare 9th inning rally at Cincinnati yesterday. Philadelphia just recently fired Joe Girardi and they have now won 7 straight since the managerial change. While the Phillies have won 7 straight (including 8-3 as an underdog yesterday) and have scored an average of 7.6 runs per victory in this streak, Arizona has scored an average of only 2 runs per game last 9 losses and had lost 16 of 24 games before rare B2B road wins - albeit over a bad Reds team. Also, while I am making this play regardless of pitchers, note that Kyle Gibson 3-1 with a 3.47 ERA in 6 home starts this season. Philadelphia has been red hot and now begins a homestand and I know Zac Gallen is a solid pitcher for the Diamondbacks but he has a 5.29 ERA last 3 starts. Now he faces a confident Philadelphia lineup. Hot Phillies over the generally road-adverse Diamondbacks and we get an excellent money line value here with the small home favorite being undervalued because of the pitching match-up being given more weight by the books. The fact is we have the better and hotter lineup in this match-up. Happy to test the 7-0 / 100% PERFECT RUN with the home team in this one! 8* PHILADELPHIA -130

*action on pitchers* MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies @ 3:45 ET - I know yesterday's game was tight and low-scoring and decided in extra innings but that is merely serving to give us even more line value here. This one should fly over the total regardless of the starting pitchers. The Rockies bullpen has struggled on the road this season. The Giants bullpen has struggled at home this season. I will mention that Colorado is expected to start Austin Gomber here and he is 0-3 with a 12.83 ERA last 3 starts. Also, in his career against the Giants, Gomber is 0-4 with a 10.91 ERA. San Francisco is expected to start Logan Webb in this one. He gave up 4 earned runs in less than 5 innings in most recent start. Also, prior to that outing he allowed 3 homers in the preceding start. The over is 14-8 in Rockies day games this season and 16-9 in Giants home games this season. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER 8 in San Francisco

*action on pitchers* MLB Thursday 8* Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +150 @ Milwaukee Brewers @ 2:10 ET - No matter who pitches here I like the red hot Phillies over the slumping Brewers. Philadelphia just recently fired Joe Girardi and they have now won 6 straight since the managerial change. While the Phillies have won 6 straight (including 10-0 blowout yesterday) and have scored an average of 7.4 runs per victory in this streak, slumping Milwaukee has lost 7 of 8 and scored an average of only 2 runs per game last 7 games. Also, while I am making this play regardless of pitchers, note that Zach Eflin is off a dominating win over Angels and also recently completely baffled the Dodgers too. Philadelphia has scored an average of 5.3 runs per game in road games this season and I know Corbin Burnes is a solid pitcher for the Brewers but he struggled in his most recent start and that was against a struggling San Diego lineup. Now he faces a confident Philadelphia lineup. Hot Phillies over cold Brewers and we get an excellent money line value here with the big dog being undervalued because of the pitching match-up being given more weight by the books and the fact is we have the better and hotter lineup in this match-up. Happy to test the 6-0 / 100% PERFECT RUN with the road team in this one! 8* PHILADELPHIA +150

*action on pitchers* MLB Thursday 9* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 12:35 ET - The Reds got shutout yesterday but were on a 7-5 run prior to that and scored an average of 6.8 runs per game during this stretch. The Diamondbacks got the 7-0 win yesterday and have now scored 6 or more runs in 5 of last 9 games. The above is the reason I like the over no matter who pitches here and that is particularly true because Arizona's bullpen has struggled on the road and the Reds bullpen has struggled at home. As for the expected starting pitchers here, note that the over is 10-2 in the dozen starts made my Cincinnati's Tyler Mahle. Also, the Diamondbacks Zach Davies is off a strong start but that came against the low-scoring Pirates and he had a 7.00 ERA over two starts heading into that one versus Pittsburgh. 10* OVER 9.5 in Cincinnati

*action on pitchers* MLB Wednesday 8* Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -125 @ Milwaukee Brewers @ 8:10 ET - No matter who pitches here I like the red hot Phillies over the slumping Brewers. Philadelphia just recently fired Joe Girardi and they have now won 5 straight since the managerial change. While the Phillies have won 5 straight (including rallying for the win in the top of the 9th here yesterday) and have scored an average of 7 runs per victory in this streak, slumping Milwaukee has lost 6 of 7 and scored an average of only 2.3 runs per game last 6 games. Also, while I am making this play regardless of pitchers, I will note that the Brewers have not enjoyed success against the starter they are likely facing here. Note that Philly expected to start strikeout machine Aaron Nola in this one. Philadelphia has scored an average of 5.2 runs per game in road games this season and I know Adrian Houser is a solid pitcher for the Brewers but he has struggled in 3 of his last 4 starts against teams not named the Padres! So you look at his starts since early May and you see what I mean and plus Philadelphia has had more success against him than Milwaukee has had against Nola. Hot Phillies over cold Brewers and we get an excellent money line value here as I know what Nola is capable of compared to Houser and plus we have the better and hotter lineup in this match-up. Happy to test the 5-0 / 100% PERFECT RUN with the road team in this one! 8* PHILADELPHIA

*action on pitchers* MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers @ 12:35 ET - Regardless of pitchers I like the over here on a warm afternoon in Pittsburgh with a light southerly breeze expected. Yesterday's game went over the total and I look for today's to do the same. The Pirates are expected to start Mitch Keller and he has struggled badly with a 6.21 ERA on the season and only 1 of his 4 home starts have resulted in an under this season. Keller allowed 10 hits in just 5 innings when he most recently faced Detroit in September. The Tigers are expected to start Alex Faedo and he does have good numbers this season. However, coming into this year most of all his experience was at the AA level of the minors or lower. That said, I feel he might struggle in this spot as this is the first time a team is hosting him in his 2nd appearance against them. He gave up 8 hits in 5 innings versus the Pirates earlier this season and that was at Detroit. Now they get a second look at him and it is in Pittsburgh too! Regardless of pitchers, again my play is action, look for the sticks to get it done here. The Pirates have won 7 of 11 and scored an average of 4.7 runs per game during this stretch. The Tigers struggled recently against the Yankees but in their 7 games since late May against teams not named the Yankees they have gone 6-1 and averaged scoring 4 runs per game. This is just one of those games I would not be surprised to see each team get to at least 4 runs and that means we get to at least a 5-4 ball game! 10* OVER 8 in Pittsburgh

*action on pitchers* MLB Tuesday 8* Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +100 @ Milwaukee Brewers @ 8:10 ET - No matter who pitches here I like the red hot Phillies over the slumping Brewers. Philadelphia just recently fired Joe Girardi and they have now won 4 straight since the managerial change. While the Phillies have won 4 straight and scored an average of 8 runs per game, slumping Milwaukee has lost 5 of 6 and scored an average of only 2.4 runs per game last 5 games. Also, while I am making this play regardless of pitchers, I will note that Brewers averaging only 3 runs in games against left-handed starters. Note that Philly expected to start southpaw Ranger Suarez in this one. Philadelphia has scored an average of 5.2 runs per game in road games this season and I know Jason Alexander had a surprisingly strong MLB debut for the Brewers but he has some very rough minor league stats from past years. More of the same expected here. Hot Phillies over cold Brewers and we get an excellent money line value here as I know what Suarez is capable of compared to Alexander and plus we have the better and hotter lineup in this match-up. 8* PHILADELPHIA

*action on pitchers* MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers @ 3:10 ET (Game 1 of 2) - This play is on game one of the double header and is regardless of who the pitchers are. Yesterday's game was rained out and the hope is that the rain has moved out of the area by the time this one is scheduled to go. There have only been 2 unders in 6 road starts for Jon Gray this season. He has a 5.40 ERA away from home. Cal Quantrill has some solid numbers this season but now is facing a Rangers team that has won 4 of last 5 road games and scored an average of 7 runs per game during that hot streak away from home. The Guardians have won 6 of 8 games and have scored an average of 6 runs per victory and certainly will have plenty of confidence here against Texas. This total simply too low given all of the above. 10* OVER 8 in Cleveland (Game 1 of 2)

*action on pitchers* MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 9 or 9.5 in Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 8:10 ET - The Blue Jays and Royals are each off high-scoring defeats yesterday. This continued recent trending for these teams as the over is on an 11-1 run in Toronto's games including 8 in a row! I am happy to test that 8-0 run right here. Also, the Royals are on a 3-13 run in large part due to poor pitching and their bullpen continues to struggle. That is why regardless of who pitches here I like the over as Kansas City is on a 12-4 run to the over. So both teams trending over and both teams battling hard here after high-scoring losses yesterday. Keep in mind the Jays had won 9 of 10 and scored an average of 7.1 runs per game in the 10-game stretch prior to yesterday's loss. Toronto sends Stripling to the mound and he has struggled in his two road starts this season. The Royals send Lynch to the mound and he is winless with an 8.31 ERA in his last 3 starts. Look for he and the KC bullpen to struggle and the over in Toronto games improves to 9-0 / 100% perfect last 9 games. 10* OVER 9 or 9.5 in Kansas City

*action on pitchers* MLB Sunday 8* Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -115 vs Los Angeles Angels @ 1:35 ET - The Angels have lost 10 straight games after the Phillies destroyed them 10-0 Friday and 7-2 yesterday. That is why yesterday I was okay with stepping out with a rare larger favorite price and laying it. Now Sunday we get line value because Sandoval is on the mound for Los Angeles and that is making for a lower line here. Note that the Angels actually only scored big in ONE of the TEN losses. In the other 9 defeats they have scored an average of only 2 runs per game. The Phillies, on the other hand, have been scoring quite well even though they have been losing a bunch of tight games. Philadelphia has scored an average of 5 runs per game last 14 games and have been held below 4 runs only ONCE in those 14 games. Conversely, the Angels have been held to 3 or less runs in 8 of last 10 games. Regardless of the pitching match-up, I look for the Angels to get sent to their 11th straight loss! But I will also mention that Patrick Sandoval is expected to start for Los Angeles here and he just got crushed for 5 earned runs in 3 innings in his most recent start. Kyle Gibson expected to start for the Phillies and he has dominated in home starts this season. Gibson has a 2.37 ERA at home this season and is coming off a dominating 2021 as well in home games (7-3 and 2.81 ERA) and in day games (4-1 and 2.77 ERA). More of the same expected here and the home team rolls once again. 8* PHILADELPHIA -115

*action on pitchers* MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers @ 11:35 AM ET - This is a contrarian play because the Tigers have been scoring so poorly this season and are off B2B shutout losses to the Yankees and managed just 1 hit in yesterday's loss! Regardless of the pitching match-up here I like the over as I have a gut feeling Detroit gets their sticks going in this day game situation at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. Also I am fully expecting the streaking Yankees to stay hot but now I will also mention the starting pitchers that are expected for this one. Note that Jordan Montgomery is off to a great start this season but it is not even the mid-way point of this season yet. Last year he went 0-4 with a 5.25 ERA in his dozen day game starts! As for Rony Garcia, he has an 8.00 ERA in his two starts thus far and will be facing a Yankees team that has won 9 of 11 games and scored an average of 5.8 runs per game in those 9 victories. The Tigers are 3-1 the last 4 times they have been on the road entering a game on a losing streak of at least 2 games. Detroit scored an average of 4.7 runs per game in those 3 victories. More of the same expected here but the Yankees stay hot. The result? Plenty of runs. 10* OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees

*action on pitchers* MLB Saturday 8* Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -170 vs Los Angeles Angels @ 7:15 ET - The Angels have lost 9 straight games after the Phillies destroyed them 10-0 yesterday. This is why I am stepping out with a rare larger favorite price here and laying it. The Angels actually only scored big in ONE of the NINE losses. In the other 8 games they have scored an average of only 2 runs per game. The Phillies, on the other hand, have been scoring quite well even though they have been losing a bunch of tight games. Philadelphia has scored an average of 5 runs per game last 13 games and have been held below 4 runs only ONCE in those 13 games. Conversely, the Angels have been held to 3 or less runs in 7 of last 9 games. Regardless of the pitching match-up, I look for the Angels to get sent to their 10th straight loss! But I will also mention that Michael Lorenzen expected to start for Los Angeles here and he has not been as strong on the road as at home. Zack Wheeler expected to start for the Phillies and he has dominated in evening starts and in home starts this season. Wheeler has a 1.48 ERA at home this season and is coming off a dominating 2021 as well. More of the same here and the home team rolls. 8* PHILADELPHIA -170

*action on pitchers* MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins @ 7:07 ET - The Twins are expected to start Chi Chi Gonzalez. He is being called up from the minors for this start. Gonzalez is an MLB veteran whom has a 5.64 ERA at the MLB level. I think he will struggle here against a Blue Jays lineup that has been tearing it up as Toronto has won 8 straight games and scored an average of 7 runs per game in the 8 victories. The Twins had been on an 11-2 run to the over before 3 straight losses. Minnesota scored an average of 6 runs per game during that 13-game stretch and I expect them to get back on track here. The Twins should enjoy success against Kikuchi as the Jays southpaw allowed 9 hits in just 5 innings in most recent start. The over is on an 8-1 run in last 9 Blue Jays games and no matter who the pitchers are in this one it looks like it should be a solid over. The Twins bats bounce back and the hosts sticks stay red hot. 10* OVER 9.5 in Toronto

*action on pitchers* MLB Friday 8* Cleveland Guardians -130 @ Baltimore Orioles @ 7:05 ET - The Orioles expected to start Zimmermann and he has an 8.81 ERA his last 3 starts. The Guardians expected to start Bieber and he has a 1.71 ERA last 3 starts. Also, Bieber has a 2.41 ERA in his 6 road starts and 4 of the 6 have been Cleveland wins. The Guardians have won 3 straight and 4 of last 5 games. Baltimore has lost 6 of 10 and is off a disheartening extra innings loss to Seattle yesterday. The set-up here, regardless of starting pitchers, is perfect for a road team win. Look for Guardians to improve to 6-2 in last 8 meetings with Orioles. 8* CLEVELAND -130

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals @ 6:40 ET - The Reds starting Ashcraft. I know he has some decent numbers but he is not getting many strikeouts. That said, balls put into play in Cincinnati can certainly be dangerous! In fact, that is a big reason the over is 15-6 in Reds home games this season. By the way the over is 15-7 in Nationals road games this season. Washington will be starting Adon here and he is 1-8 with a 6.08 ERA on the season. Cincinnati is averaging scoring 6 runs per game when at home this season. Nationals averaging scoring 5 runs per game when on the road this season. Both teams off low-scoring losses yesterday but this is now the perfect situation for the bats to come right back to life. The Nats off B2B shutout losses but this was after scoring an average of 6.6 runs per game the 5 prior games. The Reds scored an average of 6.3 runs per game on their last homestand - 7 games. 10* OVER 9.5 in Cincinnati

*action on pitchers* MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners @ 7:05 ET - We get line value here because the Mariners have Ray on the mound for this one. The Seattle southpaw has been piling up strikeouts but the carries a certain reputation with the betting markets due to long-term success through the years but he has a 6.00 ERA in his last 3 starts and has a 5.64 ERA on the road this season. As for Baltimore starter Bradish, it does not get much worse than his current run of form. Bradish has a 7.31 ERA in his 6 starts this season plus he has an 11.92 ERA in his last 3 starts overall. The Mariners are off a 10-0 win and have scored at least 5 runs in 5 of last 7 games. The over is on a 4-1 run last 5 Orioles games and they scored 10 runs in the game before yesterday's 10-0 loss. Baltimore averaged 5.7 runs per game last dozen games before the shutout loss yesterday. The O's get their sticks going in this one but can't stop the Mariners either as Seattle's surge continues against Bradish or anyone else that the Orioles have on the mound in this one. 10* OVER 8.5 in Baltimore

*action on pitchers* MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -115 vs San Francisco Giants @ 6:05 ET - The Phillies are in a losing stretch but that is helping to keep this line lower than it should be. The fact is the pitching match-up is likely to be Nola versus Rodon and that gives the Phillies a huge edge here. Nola is known for being so strong at home. No matter who pitches here I like the Phillies to bounce back off 3 straight extra innings losses! As for the pitchers, Rodon has struggled in his last 3 starts overall and has been particularly hit hard in the road outings. As for Nola, he has a 3.05 ERA last 3 starts and has been piling up the strikeouts. Value with the under-valued home favorite in this match-up. Lay the small price. 10* PHILADELPHIA -115

*action on pitchers* MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Angels @ 7:05 ET - Yankees have trended under recently but they still have a hitter-friendly home park for sure. The runs will start coming again and we have a low total to work with here. Keep in mind, the Angels Syndergaard has a 5.93 ERA in his 3 road starts this season. Overall, his last 3 outings have featured 2 overs and a push. The over is also 2-0 in the last 2 starts for the Yankees Montgomery. The southpaw has his hands full here with a solid Angels lineup. The issue for Los Angeles will be a pitching staff that has allowed an average of 7 runs per game during their 5-game losing streak. That said, regardless of the pitchers here, look for both teams to score well in this one as the under has cashed in only 7 times in Angels 21 road games this season. 10* OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees

*action on pitchers* MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -125 vs San Francisco Giants @ 6:45 ET - The Phillies are off frustrating B2B losses in extra innings and have now lost 4 straight games. That is noteworthy as Philadelphia is in this position now for the 3rd time this season. They have ended the losing streak each time so far and make it 3-0 today in my opinion. Regardless of who pitches I fully expect the Phillies to bounce back here so this is a play no matter what. I will however mention that Suarez gives us the edge over Junis. Suarez piling up the strikeouts again and should work deeper here against a Giants team that has not seen as much of him as other teams. As for Junis, his lone start against the Phillies was an ugly one and he certainly is not piling up the strikeouts like Suarez is. 10* PHILADELPHIA -125

*action on pitchers* MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals @ 6:10 ET - The Royals got hammered 7-3 yesterday and that over brings the O/U run to 9-1 last 10 Kansas City games. The Guardians are off a 2-1 loss yesterday and have been trending toward unders. However, I like the over a ton here regardless of the starting pitchers as Cleveland bounces back at home and takes advantage of facing a Royals pitching staff that has allowed 6 or more runs in 8 of last 10 games. Kansas City also should hit well here no matter who is on the mound but I will mention that the expected starters here are Plesac and Heasley. Note that Cleveland's Plesac has a 6.88 ERA last 3 starts and all 3 of those outings resulted in overs. The O/U is 6-2 in Plesac starts this season. Heasley has 13 walks compared to 7 strikeouts in his 3 starts this season. He has a command issue to say the least. Again, regardless of pitchers, look for recent over trending in Royals games to continue here. 10* OVER 9 in Cleveland

*action on pitchers* MLB Monday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Brewers Money Line -110 @ Chicago Cubs @ 1:05 ET (Game 1 of 2) - This match-up expected to feature a pair of rookie starters on the mound. I like this play regardless of who the pitchers are as the Cubs are just 7-15 at home this season. Chicago coming off a disappointing loss to White Sox as they gave up a run in the bottom of the 9th which forced extra innings and they lost in extra innings. The Brewers, on the other hand, are off a momentum-boosting 8-0 win at St Louis. Milwaukee has won 9 of 14 games while Cubs have lost 7 of 11. Also, as noted above, home field has been unkind so far this season for Chicago. Look for Brewers to get the road win and improve to 4-1 last 5 games versus the Cubs. 10* MILWAUKEE -110

*action on pitchers* MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +102 @ New York Mets @ 7:08 ET - The Phillies are off B2B losses and the last 5 times they have entered a game off 2 or more consecutive losses they have gone 4-1. So I like the Phillies here to avoid the sweep no matter who the pitchers are. However, the expected starters are Wheeler and Bassitt and this gives the Phillies an edge. Wheeler is a former Met and has been very strong in his starts against them since going from New York to Philadelphia. Also, Bassitt is off a start in which he allowed 8 earned runs in 4 and 1 / 3 innings. He has now allowed 5 homers in his last two starts. To put that in perspective compared to Wheeler, note that the Phillies starter has allowed only 2 homers in 8 starts this season! In this divisional rivalry match-up look for the Phillies to get the road win and avoid the dreaded sweep at the hands of the first place team in the division. Note this is the 4th series between these teams already this season and neither has swept the other thus far. Look for that trend to remain intact when the final result rolls in on this game as well. 10* PHILADELPHIA +102

*action on pitchers* MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Cincinnati Reds vs San Francisco Giants @ 11:35 AM ET - The Giants pounded out 12 hits yesterday but scored only 2 runs. Today they will make up for that. I like this play no matter who the pitchers are as the over is 14-6 in Reds games this season. However, I will mention the expected starting pitchers are Cobb and Mahle. That is noteworthy because the over is 6-1 in Cobb's starts and 8-2 in Mahle's starts this season. The fact Cobb has a 6.25 ERA on the season and Mahle has a 6.35 ERA in home starts this season only helps our cause here. Cincinnati has won 4 straight games and scored an average of 8 runs per game. The Giants are off B2B unders but this was after an 8-2 run to the over and I do like the fact they pounded out a dozen hits in yesterday's loss. 10* OVER 9 in Cincinnati

*action on pitchers* MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in Oakland Athletics vs Texas Rangers @ 4:07 ET - The Rangers are hot right now and have won 8 of 12 and are scoring well in those victories. I understand the low O/U here based on the fact that Texas has trended under on the road this season and the A's have trended under overall this season. However, this total seems far too low given the way Texas has been swinging the bats of late. Also, the A's should score well again here at home just like they did yesterday. I like this play regardless of the pitchers but I will mention that the Rangers Taylor Hearn has been hammered in each of his last two starts. Also, the same holds true for the Athletics Zach Logue. That said, we have plenty of value here with this one and I will go to my highest level on this play. 10* OVER 7.5 in Oakland

*action on pitchers* MLB Saturday 8* OVER 9 in Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies @ 12:05 ET (Game 1 of 2) - The Rockies Gomber gave up 5 earned runs in about 5 innings of work in his most recent road start. The Nationals Sanchez has a 7.16 ERA in his 6 starts this season and 5 of those 6 games resulted in an over. Regardless of the starting pitchers here, note that 3 of the 4 meetings between these teams this season have gone over the total. The Nationals enter this game on a 4-1 run to the over. Runs should be aplenty in this one as Rockies bullpen has been horrible this season and that has been particularly true on the road. 8* OVER 9 in Washington

*Action on Pitchers* MLB Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies +126 @ New York Mets @ 7:10 ET - Regardless of who pitches here I like the Phillies as they continue to hit much better on the road than at home and will ride the momentum of a big win at Atlanta last night. The Mets were off yesterday but the Phillies are likely to go with lefty Falter here and the young hurler has been pitching extremely well at the AAA level. Falter also has a good amount of MLB experience though most of it out of the bullpen. The key about New York facing a lefty here is that the Mets are just 5-8 this season versus southpaws including losses in 4 of the last 5 versus left-handers. As for the Mets Carrasco, he has been giving up a lot of hits in recent games and the Phillies have won 3 of last 5 games and scored at least 4 runs in 6 straight games. Note that the Mets have been feast or famine at the plate of late and have been held to 3 or less runs in 3 of last 5 games and 5 of last 10 games. The Mets have allowed 6 or more runs in 4 of last 7 games. So, again, no matter who is on the mound today for either team, I like the road team at a nice come back price to get the underdog win. The big line move toward the Mets means extra line value here as well. 10* PHILADELPHIA +125

*action on pitchers* MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies @ 7:05 ET - The Rockies and Nationals each have a struggling starting pitcher on the mound for this one. But, regardless of the starting pitchers, the Rockies off a 10-5 loss yesterday and they are likely to see bullpen lit up again today. As for the Nationals, they are off a 1-0 shutout win and that ended a stretch of 3 straight overs and I look for the high-scoring trending to immediately resume. The Nats were allowing an average of 6.5 runs per game last 11 games prior to the shutout win. Colorado allowing 5.8 runs per game last dozen games. Plenty of offense likely in this one no matter the starters but also note Marquez has a 6.14 ERA this season and Corbin has 6.59 ERA this season. Look for a wild one here. 10* OVER 8.5 in Washington

*action on pitchers* MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:05 ET - The Yankees and Orioles continue their high-scoring ways in this one. Baltimore has had just 2 unders last 9 games. The Orioles have scored at least 6 runs in 5 of last 6 games. The Yankees have won 11 of last 16 games and have scored an average of 5.5 runs per game last 7 games. JP Sears expected to make first ever MLB start for Yankees here and a struggling Tyler Wells likely to start for the Orioles here. Wells has a 7.62 ERA on the road this season and Baltimore is 0-4 in those starts. Considering that plus the fact that the Sears making first ever start and will feel pressure to perform well for the home fans in first ever start in the Bronx, this one sets up well for an over. Regardless of the starting pitchers, the over is the play here as both teams keep piling up the runs and only 1 of last 7 meetings between these teams has resulted in an under. 10* OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees

*action on pitchers* MLB 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs @ 6:40 ET - The Cubs have been better on the road than at home this season and the Reds have been better at home than on the road. This one set up well for plenty of runs no matter who is on the mound. The over is on a 3-0 run in Cubs games and they have scored an average of 5.7 runs per game during this win streak. The Reds are scoring an average of 5.6 runs per game as a host this season and the over is 11-3 in their 14 home games this season. Smyly the expected starter for Chicago and he is 0-3 with a 5.53 ERA in his last 3 starts and the damage could be even much worse as he has been hit hard. Gutierrez is 0-5 with an 8.65 ERA in his starts this season and the over is 3-0 in his last 3 starts as he has been particularly roughed up in these outings. 10* OVER 9 in Cincinnati

*action on pitchers* Game 1 of 2 in New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox @ 3:05 ET - 10* Top Play OVER 9 runs - The Yankees been scoring so well at home. New York has won 10 of last 12 games overall and have averaged scoring 6.4 runs per game last 11 games. They have hot bats right now and this ball park is conducive to runs. Cueto and Taillon the expected starting pitchers but I really do not care who pitches. This is all about two solid batting lineups and an afternoon game in the Bronx and ideal conditions for an over here. The White Sox bats did get off to a slow start this season but they are starting to hit better and have averaged a respectable 4.3 runs per game last dozen games. 10* OVER 9 in New York Yankees (Game 1 Sunday)

*action on pitchers* MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 7:05 ET - The Orioles Bradish has struggled at home and no matter who pitchers here I like the over on a warm evening in Baltimore. The Rays are expected to start Springs and throughout his career he has struggled more on the road than at home. Yesterday's 13-inning game used up some bullpen arms and was 2nd straight Orioles game to total 14 or more runs. Baltimore has allowed 5 runs per game last 10 games. The Rays have seen 5 of their last 7 road games total double digits in runs. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER 8.5 in Baltimore

*ACTION ON PITCHERS* MLB Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +125 vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 7:05 ET - Phillies off a shutout loss and, regardless of the pitching match-up, I look for them to bounce back at home after being held scoreless here yesterday. Philadelphia is 4-1 last 5 times they were off a loss in which they were held to 1 run or less. Also, the Phillies just took 3 of 4 games from the Dodgers in Los Angeles and were one out away from a 4-game sweep there! The Phillies will have plenty of confidence entering this series as a result and the projected pitchers are Urias and Suarez. The Phillies just hammered Urias for 4 homers in LA. Also, his start before that was on the road and he allowed 11 hits in 6 innings. While Urias is trending the wrong direction, Suarez appears to have righted the ship and returned to his 2021 form. He has a 3.00 ERA his last 3 starts and that includes a strong effort versus the Dodgers. The Phillies could get Bryce Harper back tonight but, regardless of his status and without regard to the pitching match-up, I look for the home team to bounce back off a shutout home loss yesterday to the Padres. Look for the Phillies to make it 4 out of 5 against the Dodgers on the season. 10* PHILADELPHIA +125

*action on pitchers* MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -105 vs San Diego Padres @ 1:05 ET - Normally I do like to take good teams off losses and the Padres do enter this game off a loss yesterday. However, I am riding the Phillies here on their home field. Philadelphia has won 5 of last 7 games. No matter who starts for the Phillies it is likely to be righty and the Padres are only a .500 team against right-handed starters this season. Also, the expected starts are Darvish vs Gibson. Note that Darvish has a horrible 7.91 ERA in his 4 road starts this season and Gibson is 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA and a minuscule 0.70 WHIP in his home starts this season. Phillies roll at home no matter the pitchers here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -105

*action on pitchers* MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 7:40 ET - The Pirates have not settled on a pitcher but I really do not care who Pittsburgh chooses. The Pirates continue to give up big runs no matter who is on the mound. I am expecting the Cubs to start Drew Smyly but even if he does not go I do not care here. I am expecting the Bucs to bounce back at the plate after back to back shutouts. If Smyly does go (which is likely by the way), the Pirates should finally get going at the plate as the southpaw has a 5.79 ERA in his home starts and has struggled to a 4.80 ERA last 3 starts and he has been hit hard and has a 1-4 record on the season. The Cubs have won 6 of 8 games and have scored an average of 5.4 runs per game in those 8 games. The Pirates have scored better (4 runs per game) in games against left-handed starters but, again, even if Smyly does not go here I do like this play. Pittsburgh, prior to Tuesday's shutout, had scored an average of 4.7 runs per game this season when entering a game off B2B games in which they were held to 2 or less runs. In other words, the Pirates are due and recent history suggests their bats come to life here. At the same time, Pittsburgh's mound struggles continue. 10* OVER 8 in Chicago Cubs

*action on pitchers* MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees @ 7:05 ET - As mentioned in yesterday's analysis, Baltimore entered this series off a 3-game sweep at the hands of the Tigers but, keep in mind, that was on the road! The fact is the Orioles are known for playing better at home and they entered this series having won 4 of last 5 games as a host and scored an average of 5.6 runs per game in those 5 games. The Yankees enter this one with plenty of confidence too as they have won 7 of 8 games. Also, in their last 6 wins, New York has scored an incredible average of 8 runs per game. That said, I am expecting them to give plenty of run support to Taillon here and he will need it! The right-hander is facing the Orioles for the 3rd time already this season and they hit him harder in the 2nd one than the first and so you know what is likely coming here in the 3rd one especially with the Orioles being at home. As for Watkins, he has been getting hit hard and the Yankees are likely to pound the Baltimore right-hander. Regardless of the starting pitchers here, and even though we have two pretty solid bullpens working in this one, I love the over. Just thinking the confidence of each lineup based on recent play (at least when Orioles at home they had been scoring well) is going to key a lot of success for each club in this one. 10* OVER 8 in Baltimore

*action on pitchers* MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees @ 7:05 ET - This is a contrarian play because Bradish is off a fantastic start for the Orioles and fanned 11. Also because Baltimore is off a 3-game sweep at the hands of the Tigers but, keep in mind, that was on the road! The fact is the Orioles are known for playing better at home and they have won 4 of last 5 games there and scored an average of 5.6 runs per game in those 5 games. The Yankees enter this one with plenty of confidence too as they have won 6 of 7 games. Also, in their last 5 wins, New York has scored an incredible average of 8.2 runs per game. That said, I am expecting them to give plenty of run support to Severino here and he will need it! Severino has been a bit "off" this season and has a 5.74 ERA in his last 3 starts and has been hit particularly hard in his last 2 starts. Regardless of the starting pitchers here, and even though we have two pretty solid bullpens working in this one, I love the over. Just thinking the confidence of each lineup is going to key a lot of success for each club in this one. 10* OVER 8 in Baltimore

*action on pitchers* MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds @ 1:35 ET - The Pirates won 3-1 yesterday but this followed a stretch in which the Reds had scored 4 or more runs in 10 straight games. Cincinnati had been heavily trending to the over and I am not going to let one game stand in way of that. The Reds should bounce back here. I know Quintana has been throwing well for the Pirates but there will be a regression to the mean for this guy. As for Greene, he has struggled badly for Cincinnati and the over is 3-0 in his last 3 starts. He has a 7.62 ERA on the season and a 10.22 ERA in his last 3 starts. Neither bullpen is very good and no matter who starts here I am expecting plenty of runs in this one. 10* OVER 8.5 in Pittsburgh

*action on pitchers* MLB Sunday 8* OVER 8 in Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres @ 11:35 AM ET - The bullpens imploded in yesterday's game and it led to an over. I know neither team hit overly great yesterday but look for another over today and even better hitting. The Padres bullpen has struggled on the road this season. The Braves bullpen has struggled at home this season. No matter who starts here I like the over but also will mention Musgrove got rocked the last time he started at Atlanta and Wright enters this start struggling so San Diego should pound him. 8* OVER 8 in Atlanta

*action on pitchers* MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 6:10 ET - Both pitchers in this match-up have struggled in limited action so far this season. Regardless of the starting pitchers here, like the over tremendously here! The Rays over is 9-3-1 the last 13 games. The Blue Jays are 6-1 to the over last 7 games. Tampa Bay has won 8 of 11 games and scored 6 runs per game in those 8 victories. Toronto has scored an average of 4 runs per game last 7 games. With this total only at 8 runs, I feel we have excellent line value here and expect the recent over trending for each of these clubs to continue. 10* OVER 8 in Tampa Bay

*action on pitchers* MLB Friday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Brewers Money Line -142 vs Miami Marlins @ 6:40 ET - The Brewers are the better team and this situation favors them as well. The Marlins are off a big win but had lost 9 of 10 games prior to that. The Brewers are off a loss but had won 16 of 22 games prior to that. Regardless of the pitchers I like the better team here. But I will mention that the scheduled starters are Burnes for the Brewers and Lopez for the Marlins. Burnes and Lopez both have been pitching well but Burnes has been piling up a lot more strikeouts. I also like the fact that Lopez allowed 4 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work in his most recent home start. Also, he has allowed 5 earned runs in 2 of his 3 starts against the Brewers. Look for the road team to roll to a big win here. 10* MILWAUKEE -142

*action on pitchers* MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees @ 8:10 ET - Both teams have been heating up and I like the extra confidence at the plate regardless of the pitching match-up. The Yankees have won 15 of last 17 games and scored an average of nearly 7 runs per victory! The White Sox had a postponement yesterday but that will not slow them down here as they have won 8 of 10 games and are finally starting to score better too after a very slow start to the season. Chicago now averaging 4.2 runs scored last 10 games. As for the pitching match-up (again, my play is action here) Cease has been throwing very well for the White Sox but note he faced the Yankees in two starts last season and had a 7.72 ERA. Also, Luis Gil would be making first start of this season and struggled as a starter late last season. Plenty of runs expected here as both teams have a lot of confidence right now. 10* OVER 7.5 in Chicago White Sox

*action on pitchers* MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in St Louis Cardinals vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:45 ET - The Cardinals should pound Watkins as he has been hit quite hard in his past two starts and those were at home plus he allowed 2 homers in just 5 innings in most recent road start. As for the Cardinals Mikolas, I know he has been strong again this season but the Orioles have been heating up at the plate and that is why they have been winning some games of late. Baltimore has won 5 of 6 games and scored an average of 5.5 runs per game during this stretch. The Cards, before yesterday's home loss, had won 4 of last 6 home games and scored at least 7 runs in 3 of the 4 wins. Overall, before back to back losses in which they scored just 3 runs in each game, the Cardinals had a 4-game stretch in which they averaged 7 runs per game. This is why, regardless of the pitching match-up here...no matter who starts, I am expecting double digits in runs in this one. 10* OVER 8 in St Louis

*action on pitchers* MLB AL East Total of the Month Tuesday 10* OVER 7.5 +105 in New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:05 ET - Yankees getting their 3rd shot at Kikuchi already this season. Blue Jays seeing Severino for 2nd time this season. Regardless of the starting pitchers here the Yankees have endured a tough 2-2 stretch and will be ready to bounce back here and New York had average scoring 7 runs per game in the 11-game winning streak before this 2-2 stretch. The Blues Jays have averaged 4.5 runs per game last 4 games so you can see, given all of the above, this total seems a bit low. We'll take advantage here. 10* OVER 7.5 +105 in New York Yankees

MLB Earliest Cash Tuesday 8* OVER 6.5 in Detroit Tigers vs Oakland Athletics @ 1:10 ET (Game 1 of DH - game in Detroit but Oakland as host) - Contrarian play all the way here. Off yesterday's 2-0 final, the bats finally come to life today. I am well aware that both teams have been trending under but I feel strongly this one bucks the trend. Tarik Skubal is a solid pitcher for Detroit but he did allow 2 homers in most recent start and was charged with 6 runs (3 earned) in just 5 innings in the start before that. Also, Skubal allowed 6 earned runs in 5 innings in his most recent start versus the A's. Oakland is starting Frankie Montas here. The right-hander allowed 2 homers in his most recent start versus Detroit. Also, though his last start (against TB) was a good one, he allowed 5 earned runs in the start before that. This total was a 7 and dropped to a 6.5 and I just feel we have excellent value here as the low totals are getting out of hand. 8* OVER 6.5 in Detroit

*action on pitchers* MLB Central Div Total of the Month Monday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians @ 8:10 ET - The over is 3-0 in last starts by Plesac for the Guardians this season. Cleveland enters this game off an under but this followed 6 straight overs. Chicago has been trending under but they are on a 7-1 winning run in which they have scored an average of about 4 runs per game. Look for a breakout game for the White Sox lineup here as Plesac has allowed 10 earned runs in less than 9 innings of work spanning his last two starts. Chicago's Kopech did have more walks than strikeouts in his last home start. With the over trending of the Guardians coupled with the winning run the White Sox are on, all signs point to an over here regardless of the pitchers. 10* OVER 7.5 in Chicago White Sox

*action on pitchers* MLB Total Dominator Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 7 in Minnesota Twins vs Oakland A's @ 2:10 ET - I know scoring is down so far this season but this total is simply far too low in this one. Oakland's Daulton Jefferies is 0-3 last three starts and has allowed 11 earned runs in 9 innings in his last two starts. Jefferies gave up 11 hits in 5 innings in his most recent start. I know Chris Paddack has great numbers on the season so far for the Twins but he allowed 16 hits in less than 11 innings in his two career starts versus Oakland and both those games went over the total. More of the same expected here as these teams both enjoy some success at the plate and that helps this one get over the very low number set for this match-up. Regardless of the pitching match-up, I expect the bats to finally come back to life in a Sunday afternoon game. 10* OVER 7 in Minnesota

MLB Total of the Week Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox @ 4:10 ET - Yesterday's game saw the teams combine to go for 2 for 16 with runners in scoring position. Was a tough game for over players. I will come right back with the over in today's match-up. I know it will be chilly and the wind blowing in at Fenway Park but I love the over here. Boston's Pivetta has struggled bad this season and particularly struggles in his home starts and the White Sox will get to him early and often. I know Cease has great numbers for Chicago this season but he got hammered by the Red Sox in his two starts against them last season. More of the same here as Boston gets their bats going finally. Cease has struggled more on the road than at home. We'll see runs aplenty after the teams hit into 4 double plays yesterday plus left 17 men on base. The game yesterday saw so many wasted opportunities and I expect today to make up for that. 10* OVER 8 in Boston

*action on pitchers* MLB 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers @ 8:10 ET - The Astros have won 9 of 12 games and scored an average of 5.3 runs per game in the 9 wins. The Tigers are known as a bad team that does not score a lot of runs but they could get to Garcia early in this one. Garcia has a 6.17 ERA in home starts this season. Both Garcia and the Tigers Brieske have proven homer-prone this season. Brieske has allowed 3 homers in 10 innings as a starter. Garcia has allowed a pair of homers in each of his last two starts. Regardless of the pitchers here I have a strong feeling the Astros will stay hot and take advantage of a bad Tigers team in this one. Time for the bats to turn things up a notch in this one and I do like the homer angle here too. After yesterday's 3-2 battle yesterday a lot more runs in this one. 10* OVER 8 in Houston

*action on pitchers* MLB Friday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Brewers +102 @ Atlanta Braves @ 7:20 ET - The expected pitchers are Lauer vs Chavez. I don't care who pitches here as I like the fact that the Brewers have won 10 of 12 games and have gotten a confidence boost with playing some weaker foes and having a chance to get their lineup going. Milwaukee has scored an average of 9 runs per game last 8 wins. The Braves, on the other hand, have lost 4 of 6 games and Atlanta has scored an average of only 2 runs per game in those 4 losses. This one will be all Brewers regardless of the pitchers but I will mention that Milwaukee has won all 4 of Eric Lauer's starts this season and he has been phenomenal of late including piling up the strikeouts. 24 K's in last 13 innings spanning two most recent starts. Grabbing the hotter team that is also available at a great price because of being on the road. 10* MILWAUKEE +102 

*action on pitchers* 8* OVER 8 in Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:10 ET - Look for Velasquez to get hammered here. He pitched at Fenway Park in July and got rocked. Boston off an embarrassing shutout loss yesterday and will bounce back here. Eovaldi piled up strikeouts but got hit hard by the White Sox when he faced them last season. Both pitchers coming off strong starts and Eovaldi having a strong overall start to the season but Velasquez has struggled earlier this season and Red Sox will pound him. Boston had averaged 5 runs per game last 3 games before the shutout loss yesterday. White Sox starting to hit a little better with average of 4 runs scored last 5 games. So, regardless of the pitchers, look for this one to surprise many by being a high-scoring slugfest. 8* OVER 8 in Boston

*action on pitchers* MLB PA Dominator Thursday 8* Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -158 vs New York Mets @ 6:45 ET - Little bit of a pricey line but that is why I reduced to a non-Top rating here but really do like this play. Aaron Nola is the expected pitcher for the Phillies and Taijuan Walker for the Mets. Walker has only faced the Phillies in his two starts this season and in one did not pitch very long and in the other one, though he shut them out over 5 innings, he struck out only one. The Phillies are going to get to him this time. Also, Nola has dominated the Mets often with piling up strikeouts and is known for dominating much more at home than on the road throughout his career. Nola has walked 1 and struck out 18 in 13 innings over his last two starts. No matter who pitches here I like the Phillies at home in this one. Philadelphia improves to 3-0 last 3 times when they entered a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. Mets have scored an average of only 3 runs per game last 4 games. The Phillies off a 10-inning 2-1 loss to Rangers but had scored an average of 6 runs per game in the 8 games leading into that one. Their sticks get going again here. 8* PHILADELPHIA -158

*action on pitchers* MLB Afternoon Dominator Wednesday 10* Top Play Oakland A's +115 vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 3:37 ET - The A's blew a 5-3 lead in the top of the 9th yesterday but overall their bullpen has been solid this season. I know Oakland is on a losing streak but they bounce back at home here after letting yesterday's game slip away and losing 10-7 in extra innings. I like this play regardless of the pitchers but will mention that Tampa Bay's Kluber is off a strong start but allowed 11 hits in 5 innings in his prior start. Also, in his 8 career starts against Oakland his teams have a record of 2-6. Conversely, Montas has a 2.46 ERA in his 4 career starts versus the Rays and his teams have a record of 3-1 in those 4 starts. Look for the A's to bounce back big here and I love fading the line move as the line on TB as a small fave has been climbing higher and higher this morning. 10* OAKLAND +115

*action on pitchers* MLB Contrarian Dominator Wednesday MLB 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 -115 in Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners @ 2:10 ET - Mariners off B2B shutout losses and now face Justin Verlander. However, watch Seattle surprise some people here. Verlander did give up 2 homers in his only home start this season and now the Mariners getting a 2nd look at him after facing him in Seattle in mid-April. Look for this to benefit the M's lineup here but the issue for Seattle is they are starting Matt Brash. He is winless with a 9.82 ERA in his road starts this season and the over is 3-0 in his last 3 starts and that included a start against the Astros in which he was fortunate he did not give up more runs as he walked 6 in about 5 innings. No matter who starts here I am anticipating the Mariners bats get back on track and the Astros bats will stay hot. Houston has won 7 of 10 games and averaging 5.4 runs scored per victory. 10* OVER 7.5 in Houston

*action on pitchers* MLB Earliest Dominator Wednesday 8* Arizona Diamondbacks +154 @ Miami Marlins @ 12:40 PM ET - Arizona is a scrappy team that is still flying under the radar a bit so we get good value in backing them. The money line on the Marlins in this one has gone from -135 to -165 and I love fading line moves like this. Keep in mind the Diamondbacks, with yesterday's 5-4 victory, have now won 6 of last 8 games. The Marlins, with yesterday's defeat, have now lost 3 straight games. 8* ARIZONA +154

*action on pitchers* MLB Run Line Rout Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 +125 vs Texas Rangers @ 6:45 ET - I do not care who pitches here but do expect it to be Suarez and the Phillies are 4-0 in his starts this season. As for the Rangers it could be Otto or Gray but most likely Gray and he has a 7.00 ERA so far this season and Otto is off to a good start this season but he got hammered last season. Otto is still inexperienced and whether he goes or Gray goes or whoever pitches for Texas here I like the Phillies to bounce back off a 10-6 loss to the Mets on Sunday. Philadelphia had won 7 of 10 games before that. I am comfortable laying the run line here as 10 of the Phillies 11 wins this season have been by 2+ runs. Texas is off B2B wins but had lost 14 of 20 games prior to that! Also, the Rangers last dozen losses have featured 10 by 2 or more runs. This one has home blowout written all over it. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 +125 

*action on pitchers* MLB Daytime Dominator Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 7 in New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves (Game 1) @ 3:10 ET - I know that scoring has trended downward early this season but Morton is having a rough start to the season and the over is 3-1 in his outings. As for Carrasco, he is off a very rough start in his last outing plus got hammered by the Braves the last time he faced them and that was in October so was not too long ago. Regardless of the pitching match-up here I like the over as Atlanta is on a 6-3 run to the over and the Mets lineup is super solid but off a loss yesterday and ready to respond here. Prior to that, New York had won 7 of 10 games and scored at least 5 runs in 6 of those 10 games. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER 7 in New York Mets (Game 1)

*action on pitchers* MLB Divisional Dominator Monday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees @ 7:07 ET - The Yankees have won 9 straight games and averaged scoring 7.4 runs per game. The Blue Jays are known for scoring better at home but are off some low-scoring games here. I look for the bats to come back to life here. I do not care who the pitchers are as the Yankees will stay hot at the plate and the Blue Jays will answer them run for run in this one. Toronto has trended under this season but they are scoring an average of 4.5 runs per game at home this season. The over is 6-2 in Yankees last 8 games. If it is Montgomery versus Stripling (again I am playing this regardless of pitchers) note that Montgomery has struggled in recent starts versus Jays and Stripling is winless with a 4.50 ERA in two career starts versus Yankees and the New York sticks are hot right now and the Jays bullpen has struggled a bit particularly at home. 10* OVER 8.5 in Toronto

*action on pitchers* MLB Daytime Dominator Monday 8* OVER 7.5 in Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Angels @ 2:10 ET - Yesterday's game had no business going over the total as it was a 3-0 game through 8 innings. Then the Angels scored a pair of runs in top of 9th to make it 5-0 and then the White Sox put up a 5-spot in bottom of 9th to force extra frames. That was a fortunate over to say the least but that also triggers something here. Chicago won Saturday's game and scored 4 runs and then the late 5-spot Sunday is something the White Sox can use as a confidence boost to get their struggling bats going. In their games against left-handed starters this season they have hit better and averaged 5 runs per game. Also, the Angels have won 7 of 8 and averaged 5.4 runs scored per game in those 7 victories. The White Sox are expected to face a lefty Patrick Sandoval in this one. I know he has great numbers so far this season but Chicago will continue to build momentum at the plate and they have hit lefties better this season. Dylan Cease expected to start for White Sox and he has a 6.23 ERA in his 3 career starts against Angels and one was earlier this season. Regardless of the starting pitchers here I like the over as we take advantage of a low number in this day game and, just like yesterday, both bullpens get touched up. 8* OVER 7.5 in Chicago White Sox

*action on pitchers* MLB ESPN Smash Pass Sunday 8* Philadelphia Phillies Run Line +1.5 -140 @ 7:08 ET - Scherzer is a great pitcher of course but Eflin is solid too. That is why the posted total is only 7 runs on this game and is also why we have excellent line value with the +1.5 runs on the run line in this one. Scherzer did allow 8 baserunners in 5 innings in his first start versus the Phillies this season. Also, Eflin had a 2.25 ERA in his two starts versus the Mets last season and they have not yet faced him this season. It adds up to solid line value here with the road team getting the 1.5 runs. No matter who the starting pitchers are, note that Philly is 7-3 last 10 games and only twice in last 11 games have they had a loss by more than 1 run. The Mets last 8 games have featured only 4 wins by more than 1 run. Excellent value with the run line here as Philly lost 2 of 3 to the Mets earlier this season in Philadelphia and are hungry to return the favor here! 8* PHILADELPHIA +1.5 -140

*action on pitchers* MLB Daytime Dominator Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 10.5 in Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds @ 3:10 ET - I am coming right back with this play we had yesterday. When the Reds loaded the bases with no one out on 3 straight line drive hits in the top of the 5th but only scored 1 run out of all of that I knew we were in trouble. Sure enough the Rockies had one of those "Coors Field innings" in the bottom of the 6th and put up a 4 spot but it was too little too late. We'll get payback today as Sanmartin is 0-3 with an 11.75 ERA this season and Freeland is also 0-3 this season plus has a 7.71 ERA in his home starts. Even if those guys weren't the starters here I will again mention bad bullpens and the fact Rockies tend to score very well at home and Reds had been scoring better prior to yesterday's debacle. This one will be the slugfest that just never developed yesterday. These two hurlers a combined 0-6 on the season. Regardless of starting pitchers, runs runs runs the story in this one. 10* OVER 10.5 in Colorado

*action on pitchers* MLB Total of the Month Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 11 in Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds @ 8:10 ET - The Rockies bats are different at home. After struggling to score runs on their road trip they are back on track at home. 10-4 win yesterday for Colorado. Though Cincinnati is still having the same problem - losing - that they have had all season long, at least they are scoring some runs. Yesterday's loss was the 5th straight game in which the Reds have scored at least 4 runs and they have averaged 5 runs per game during this stretch. The Rockies are averaging nearly 6 runs per game at home this season and the weather will be nice for this one. I like this play regardless of the starting pitchers as both teams have bullpens that have struggled this season. But, in terms of the expected starting pitchers, Connor Overton is making his first start of the new season and he allowed 8 earned runs in less than 4 innings in his last two starts of last season to finish the season in ugly fashion. He only has limited MLB career action including just 3 starts and 2 of those were disasters. As for Rockies starter Chad Kuhl, he is off to strong start this season but he got roughed up in spring training and is coming off a rough season with Pirates last year. He is making just his 2nd home start of the season and Coors Field can be tough on pitchers. I feel strongly that the money line is priced rather low on Rockies here for a reason. They are -140 at home and hosting a 3-17 team. Something funny with that and tells me that Rockies pitchers are expected to get hit hard in this game. Maybe they win a slugfest but the money line price is funny to me and I feel confident of a slugfest being the ultimate result here no matter which team comes out on top. 10* OVER 11 in Colorado

*action on pitchers* Game of the Week Saturday 10* Top Play Seattle Mariners +110 @ Miami Marlins @ 6:10 ET - The Marlins lost 8-6 yesterday but are 3-0 last 3 times they were off a loss by a multi-run margin. I know Miami has been hot but they had scored a total of 5 runs in the two games prior to yesterday's explosion at the plate. Also, they have been held to 3 or less runs so often this season. I like the road dog here regardless of the starting pitchers as Seattle has the better lineup and slightly better bullpen in my opinion as well and early season runs and ERA are proving that out. As for the expected starters here, Robbie Ray has gone undefeated with a 1.50 ERA in his last 3 starts versus Miami. Jesus Luzardo got hammered the last time he faced Seattle and also enters this start struggling a bit with 6 walks and 9 hits for 15 baserunners in about 9 innings of work spanning his last two starts. The real ugly start of those two was here at home and I expect another home loss for the Marlins in this one too as the Mariners put an end to Miami's hot streak. 10* SEATTLE +110

*action on pitchers* MLB Daytime Dominator Saturday 8* OVER 8 in Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros @ 3:07 ET - These teams were involved in a 11-7 slugfest yesterday. Their prior meeting was an 8-7 game in Houston. The runs will come in big again here. Regardless of the pitchers, I like the over here. But I will mention that Garcia allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings the last time he faced the Blue Jays. Berrios has a 7.37 ERA in his two home starts this season. Houston comes in hot with 4 straight wins and scoring an average of 6 runs in last 5 victories dating back to Sunday. Toronto has been scoring better at home than on the road this season and is averaging a solid 5 runs per game as a host so far. Also, the Blue Jays pen has higher ERA at home than on the road and the Houston bullpen has a higher ERA on the road than at home. Add it all up and it adds up to a lot of runs! 8* OVER 8 in Toronto

*action on pitchers* MLB Early Dominator Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies +110 @ New York Mets @ 7:10 ET - Excellent line value here regardless of the pitching match-up. The Phillies overall pitching staff including bullpen has been fantastic as they have won 4 straight games and have allowed an average of only 2 runs per game last 5 games. The Phillies bats have been going in a big way too and confidence is building with 4 wins by a combined score of 32 to 9 in this hot streak. Now they take on a strong Mets team and seeking revenge from losing 2 of 3 in Philly earlier this month. I like the hot Phillies regardless of pitching match-up here but will mention the expected starters here and the fact that Aaron Nola absolutely dominated in his last two visits to this ballpark and Tylor Megill is coming back down to earth after a strong start to season. He has still been solid last two starts but not like he was earlier this season. This is called regression to the mean as he was pitching better than usual earlier. Now the Phillies pound him tonight. 10* PHILADELPHIA +110 

*action on the pitchers* MLB Daytime Dominator Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 7 in Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox @ 3:07 ET - I fully understand the line move but it has gone from an 8 to a 7 and in typical contrarian fashion here I am on the over. The Red Sox got their sticks going with 13 hits yesterday. The Blue Jays typically hit well at home but struggled yesterday and I fully expect them to bounce back here. Toronto is averaging 5 runs per game at home this season. I also am aware of Xander Bogaerts likely being out of the lineup today. Again, this is a contrarian play all the way. I have seen so many times this type of scenario play out and I like the fact the road team scored so well yesterday and brings confidence to the ball park this afternoon and the fact that we have one of the better home hitting teams in the majors ready to bounce back here. No matter who the pitchers are here I like the over but I will mention that Whitlock was fantastic out of the bullpen last season and to start this year but this is still a guy who has only one MLB start under his belt. Also, Manoah is a great starter but his hits allowed have gone from 1 to 4 to 7 in last 3 starts. Again, banking on the bats here to get us over this low total regardless of the pitchers. 10* OVER 7 in Toronto

*action on pitchers* MLB PA Dominator Wednesday 9* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 runs -110 vs Colorado Rockies @ 6:45 ET - Regardless of the pitching match-up here the Phillies confidence is up again at the plate as they have won the first two games in this series by a combined score of 18 to 5. In fact, their last 3 games against Colorado have now all been wins by a combined score of 27 to 11. So they are enjoying success against Rockies pitchers no matter who has been on the mound and now they are expected to face Feltner making his first start of the new season. He will be no match for expected starter Suarez in this one as the Phillies lefty is gradually showing more and more signs of being the pitcher he was last season and he should dominate this outing. No matter who the pitchers are, the Phillies hot bats carry the way again and the Rockies road struggles continue. 9* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 runs -110

*action on pitchers* MLB Daytime Dominator Wednesday 10* Top Play Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 +100 vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 3:40 ET - Love the home dog value here on the run line. We get value because Dodgers have been so hot this season and are off a 5-3 loss yesterday but give Arizona credit here. The Diamondbacks rallied from a 3-0 deficit yesterday to get that win. It was impressive and no matter who pitches here I like the fact that Arizona's last 8 games have featured only 2 losses my more than a single run. The expected pitchers here are Gallen versus Urias. I love the fact that Gallen has been strong early this season even though he faced a tough Mets lineup twice. He is throwing very well. Conversely, Urias got to enjoy a start against a bad Reds team plus he struggled badly in one of his two road starts as he got hammered by the Rockies. Though Urias is a solid pitcher for sure, so too is Gallen and the latter has enjoyed success against Los Angeles as well. I know Urias has good numbers against the Dbacks but he has allowed 9 hits in 10 innings in last two visits to Arizona and struggles again here. Regardless of starting pitchers, look for the Diamondbacks to make it 7 of last 9 games either being a win or a 1-run loss. Highly competitive match-up here and the home team finds a way. 10* ARIZONA +1.5 runs +100

*action on pitchers* MLB Early Dominator Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:10 ET - Over is 5-2 in last 7 White Sox games and Royals now off B2B overs. Lynch has a horrible history against Chicago including 16.19 ERA in 3 starts last season. Keuchel has struggled in 2 of his last 3 starts versus Kansas City. Chilly weather in Chicago tonight but expected breezes out of northwest could actually help our over as well. Either way, no matter the pitchers here (play it with action), we should see plenty of runs as White Sox starters and relievers have combined to give up 6 or more runs in 5 of last 7 games. Both lineups should get going here as Royals have hit well here in past and ChiSox happy to be back home for sure. 10* OVER 8.5 in Chicago White Sox

*action on pitchers* MLB RL Dominator Game of the Month Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 +105 vs Colorado Rockies @ 6:45 ET - So the Rockies are off to a great start this season and the Phillies are struggling and yet the home team opened up as nearly a 2 to 1 favorite here on the money line. What happened? Well for one thing, just playing the home team in Colorado game last season netted you a 102-59 record. Notoriously a solid home team but the Rockies are known for struggling on the road. Here they face a Phillies team that will be poised to bounce back big at home. Philadelphia is off a shutout loss to the Brewers last night in a frustrating game as Angel Hernandez was behind the plate and the man is the worst umpire in the game. Sickening calls that went both ways but sure did not help the flow of the game. The Phillies bats will get going tonight regardless of the pitchers. This season Philadelphia has been held to 1 run or less 5 times, including last night's game. After the first 4, the Phillies have scored an average of 6.5 runs per game. Freeland has struggled this season on the mound for the Rockies and Gibson has overall been solid for the Phillies on the mound and he also delivered an absolute gem in his only home start this season. Again, no matter who pitches here, the Phillies bounce back big at home and win this one in a rout.  5 of the Phillies 6 wins by at least 2 runs this season and all 5 Colorado losses this season by at least 2 runs. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 +105

*action on pitchers* ESPN Blowout Sunday 9* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -140 vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 7:08 ET - This line has come down some and it is go time with the Phillies. Price is now as low as the -140 range after being as high as the -175 range. There is value here at the lower price after the move. When the Phillies were up 3-0 yesterday and Wheeler was cruising on the mound, it looked like they were well on their way to their 3rd straight win. Unfortunately - for Philly at least - one bad inning things came unraveled and suddenly they were down 4-3 and went on to lose 5-3. Regardless of who pitchers here I like the Phillies as they are at home and available at a reasonable price and they have the better overall lineup. The pitchers are expected to be Nola vs Lauer and through his many years in Philly Nola has been much better when on the home mound than on the road. Considering that plus the fact that Lauer gave up 3 homers in 6 innings in his only career start here (last season), I do like the home team to get it done here. Action on pitchers and look for a huge game at the plate from the home team. 9* PHILADELPHIA -140

*action on pitchers* MLB Run Line Rout Sunday 10* Top Play Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 -105 vs New York Mets @ 4:10 ET - Regardless of who pitches here I like the Diamondbacks as a home dog getting the +1.5 runs. Not only has Arizona won 3 of 4, none of their last 5 games have resulted in a loss by more than a single run. The Diamondbacks have been scrappy, they are at home, and Bumgarner has been solid so far this season. Megill started off great for Mets but did give up 4 earned runs in most recent start. Bumgarner has given up a total of only 2 earned runs in his 3 starts this season! Like the home dog to get it done here but will grab the run line in case they fall one run short in this one. 10* ARIZONA +1.5 -105 

*action on pitchers* MLB Game of the Week Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -135 vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 4:05 ET - The Phillies are favored by a moderate margin here and that may surprise some when you consider their tough start this season and the Brewers hotter start. However, regardless of the pitching match-up here, I like Philadelphia at home as they have the stronger lineup and they can build off a high-scoring win at Colorado Wednesday which got their bats going and helped lead the way to rallying for yesterday's 4-2 win over Milwaukee to open up this series. Also, in terms of the projected pitchers, note that Wheeler was fantastic last season and he was much better in his home start this season and will put a rough road start behind him here. Also, Wheeler has been fantastic facing the Brewers in recent starts against them. As for the Brewers, their expected starter is Houser and he has struggled a bit in each of his first two starts this season and, unlike Wheeler, he struggled recently against the opponent he is facing today. Regardless of pitching match-up I do like the Phillies at a reasonable price at home to get the win again here and make it 2 straight over the Brewers and 3 in a row overall as the home/road dichotomy makes a difference here as well. 10* PHILADELPHIA -135

*action on pitchers* MLB Early Dominator Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -120 vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies are favored here and that may surprise some when you consider their tough start this season and the Brewers hotter start. However, regardless of the pitching match-up here, I like Philadelphia at home as they have the stronger lineup and they can build off a high-scoring win at Colorado Wednesday which got their bats going. Also, in terms of the projected pitchers, note that Suarez was rock solid last season and he was much better in his 2nd start this season after a rough first start where he was done in on some flukiness in terms of defense behind him. As for the Brewers, their expected starter is Peralta and he has struggled in each of his first two starts this season and, unlike Suarez, his 2nd start was worse than his 1st. Regardless of pitching match-up I do like the Phillies at a great price at home to get the win here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -120

*action on pitchers* MLB Daytime Dominator Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 7 in Oakland A's vs Baltimore Orioles @ 3:37 ET - This is a contrarian play all the way as the O/U in Orioles games is 0-11-1 so far this season. However, Blackburn struggled last season with Oakland and with the AAA club in Vegas. He was hit hard in both places and I am just not sold on him yet. Yes, he has a low ERA so far this season but it is still early and I expect him to struggle in his first home start of the season. The Orioles send Wells to the mound and he got rocked in his only road start his season. That said, Oakland was averaging 5 runs scored per game before yesterday's shutout loss and I expect a bounce back at the plate here. No matter who pitches here, this is a play for me, I love taking overs off a 1-0 game and that was the final score in yesterday's Baltimore win. The bats will wake up this afternoon and this one flies over the low total in my opinion. Finally, an over in an Orioles game. It happens this afternoon. 10* OVER 7 in Oakland

*action on pitchers* MLB Daytime Dominator Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -110 @ Colorado Rockies @ 3:10 ET - The odds makers are some of the sharpest people around. The Phillies opened up as high as a -125 favorite in this game. This is even though they have one of the worst records in baseball right now while the Rockies have one of the best. Do you think this is a mistake? I like to side with the odds makers more often than the betting masses that is for sure and now this line has dropped into the pick'em range and I am going against the move and grabbing the road team here. I do not care who the starting pitchers are but will say that Marquez gave up 10 hits in his first start while Eflin gave up only 6 and I do expect a big Phillies bounce back here after 3 straight losses. Payback after falling just short in yesterday's 1-run loss and outhitting Colorado yesterday. 10* PHILADELPHIA

*action on pitchers* MLB Early Dominator Tuesday MLB 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in Miami Marlins vs St Louis Cardinals @ 6:40 ET - Regardless of the starting pitchers in this match-up, I do like the over. The over is 6-2 in Cardinals games so far this season. Also, the Marlins have won 3 of 4 games and confidence is building as they have scored an average of 6 runs per game in these 4 games. The scheduled pitchers are Wainwright and Luzardo. The Cardinals veteran right-hander Wainwright has a history of pitching brilliantly at home and struggling on the road and that has continued this season. The Marlins lefty just struck out a dozen in only 5 innings in his first start this season. Watch him come back down to earth here. St Louis is scoring an average of 5.4 runs per game this season and even though each of these teams have good bullpen numbers too, this total is just too low and I love the fact we were seeing lines as high as 8.5 runs before now seeing this drop a full run from the earliest openers. 10* OVER 7.5 in Miami

*action on pitchers* MLB Divisional Rout Monday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 7:40 ET - Brewers expected to start Lauer and he allowed 3 earned runs in 4 and 1/3 innings in his first start this season. Pirates expected to start Thompson here and he took a comebacker off his throwing shoulder in most recent start. Also, he allowed 5 hits in 4 innings in that outing. Regardless of the starting pitchers here, note that the Pirates bullpen has a 5.14 ERA on the road this season and the Brewers, known for pitching, actually have a rather unimpressive bullpen ERA of 3.93 at home so far this season. Now, about the bats in this one, the Pirates have actually won back to back games and 5 of their last 7 games. Pittsburgh has averaged 7 runs per game in those 5 victories! The Brewers are off a much-needed win and have now won 5 of 8 games and scored an average of 5 runs per game in those 5 victories. I know this is a bit of a contrarian play as neither lineup is crushing the ball early this season but I look for each club to build off their respective wins yesterday and the lineups will enjoy success in a game in which I expect the roof will be closed there and teams playing in a controlled environment as it is actually snowing in Milwaukee this morning. 10* OVER 8.5 in Milwaukee

*action on pitchers* MLB ML Game of the Week Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -135 @ Miami Marlins @ 1:40 ET - Regardless of who pitches the Phillies are the better overall team, have been getting solid bullpen work this season, and got their bats going yesterday. Philadelphia has a potent lineup and this is a classic case where that old adage "sometimes it only takes one" will prove true. The Phillies needed a breakout game at the plate to get their confidence back. Yesterday's 10-2 win, including scoring 8 runs in the first two innings, did just that! They will carry momentum into today's game and the Phillies will roll again. Wheeler is the expected starter and he pitched well in his first start after settling in and he will go even deeper in his 2nd start and is 9-3 with a 1.97 ERA in his career starts against the Marlins. Hernandez starts for Miami and struggled and gave up 2 homers in his first start this season and also allowed 2 homers in his last start against the Phillies. Dating back to how he wrapped up last season, Hernandez has now allowed 6 homers in his last 3 starts overall and Philadelphia is loaded with power hitters. I think this is a very bad match-up for Miami and the line is low enough on Philly - thanks to being on the road for this one - that I am comfortable elevating to my highest rating for this one. Regardless of who the starting pitchers are, the Phils build off the momentum of yesterday's game and get back to .500 here while the Marlins drop to 3-6 on the season with another loss here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -135

*action on pitchers* MLB Divisional Dominator Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +105 @ Miami Marlins @ 6:10 ET - The Phillies have lost 4 straight. The Marlins have won 2 straight. Suarez outpitched Rogers when these teams met September 4th last season but Miami still won that game. Suarez then got the win for Philadelphia when he faced the Marlins again 4 weeks later and he did not allow a run in either start against Miami! The point of all the above is Suarez and the Phillies poised well for a bounce back here and Rogers and the Marlins are set for coming back down to reality in this one. Philly is better than Miami and the Suarez we saw last season is much better than what we saw from him in his first start when the D behind him let him down and things unraveled from there. Suarez was great last season and he outduels Rogers here. But, regardless of the pitchers, I really like the road team for the bounce back here at a small dog price. They will get their sticks going against Rogers as they got to him for 6 hits in 4 and 1/3 innings the last time they faced him and he has a 4.91 ERA in his career starts versus Philly. Suarez has hurled 12 scoreless innings in his two career starts against the Marlins. The road team rolls here. 10* PHILADELPHIA +105

*action on pitchers* MLB Daytime Dominator Saturday 10* Top Play Toronto Blue Jays Run Line -1.5 runs -110 @ 3:07 ET - The Blue Jays are 5-3 on the season after yesterday's 4-1 win over the A's and only 1 of their 8 games this season was a 1-run game. The Athletics are 4-4 on the season and, like Toronto, only 1 Oakland game this season has been a 1-run game. That said, if you like the Jays here the odds are in your favor for a win by 2+ runs. The Blue Jays are a big money line favorite for a reason but we will utilize the run line for max value here. Toronto's Ryu had a bad first start this season but we know what he is about long-term. Oakland's Blackburn had a good first star this season but we know what he is about long-term. Regardless of who pitches, note that the A's went 30-51 last season when facing teams that had at least a .500 record. The Jays are 3-1 at home this season and win big again here. 10* TORONTO -1.5 -110

*action on pitchers* MLB Early Dominator Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Toronto Blue Jays vs Oakland A's @ 7:07 ET - Look for the Blue Jays to bounce back at home here after a shutout loss in the Bronx yesterday to wrap up their series with the Yankees. Toronto has looked like a different team when at home early this season with the way they are swinging the bats at Rogers Centre. That said, I look for a ton of runs in this one because Oakland also has been a surprise at the plate early this season. The A's confidence at the plate is up right now as a result and I expect them to pound the ball here. Like both of these lineups no matter who the pitchers are they are facing but I will mention the expected starters are Jefferies and Stripling. The Athletics Jefferies has made only 3 MLB starts and is not a strikeout guy so the Jays will be putting the ball in play here! The Blue Jays Stripling has struggled each of the last two seasons and this would be his first start this season but already he has 3 walks and no strikeouts in his 2 appearances out of the pen this season. No matter the pitchers they are facing a confident A's lineup and a Jays lineup already impressing at home early this season and hungry to bounce back off a road shutout loss. 10* OVER 9.5 in Toronto

*action on pitchers* MLB Divisional Dominator Friday 9* Top Play OVER 9 in Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees @ 7:05 ET - As always the starting pitchers are not the only key. I will mention however that Montgomery is the slated starter for the Yankees and he struggled a bit in his first start this season plus took a comebacker off the left leg which, as a southpaw, is the leg he pushes off with. He did get hit quite hard in his outings at Baltimore last season. The Orioles are expected to start Lyles here and he had a tough first outing and this is nothing new as he has not impressed in recent years with an 11-20 combined mark since start of 2020 and a very high ERA. Yankees can take advantage of facing an Orioles pitching staff that is overall not that strong but took advantage of facing a slumping Rays lineup and a sub-par Brewers lineup to open up the season with some success. Look for the potent Yankees lineup to do some damage here. The Orioles faced some tough pitching to open the season but they now take advantage of a team and pitching staff they are more familiar with as this series gets underway Friday and the weather will be good here for this one too. 9* OVER 9 in Baltimore 

*action on pitchers* MLB Network Dominator Thursday 10* OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:05 ET - Many books, including the BIG ones here in Vegas where I live will NOT even let you list pitchers on a game. My preference is that for sure. In other words, try to always place your wagers at books that are all action whether money line, run line, or total. My write-ups often include information about the scheduled pitchers but, the fact is my plays are based on much more than just the starting pitchers. In this case, the Jays are expected to start Kevin Gausman and the Yankees are expected to start Luis Severino. Both these guys are quality starters but both guys combined stats from there first starts make for an unimpressive stat line as they combined for 5 earned runs allowed on 13 hits in 8 innings. I know some rain and cooler air moving into the Bronx tonight and could even delay the start of this contest. However, I still expect plenty of pop from the bats in this one after they combined for a lot of extra base hits and 10 runs in yesterday's game. If we get each team to 4 runs in this one it guarantees us at least a 5-4 final and each of these teams has scored at least 4 runs in 4 of their 6 games. You can see why I like the odds for this one to get over the low total of 8.5 runs. Lets keep the rain away and look for another huge game from Vladimir Guerrero as he proved the finger injury yesterday was no big deal with a huge performance at the plate. Getting his stick going a great sign for Toronto and the Yankees should get to at least 4 runs for a 3rd straight game! 10* OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees

*action on pitchers* No Doubt Blowout Rout Thursday 10* Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +105 @ Miami Marlins @ 6:40 ET - Many books, including the BIG ones here in Vegas where I live will NOT even let you list pitchers on a game. My preference is that for sure. In other words, try to always place your wagers at books that are all action whether money line, run line, or total. My write-ups often include information about the scheduled pitchers but, the fact is my plays are based on much more than just the starting pitchers. In this case, the Phillies are scheduled to start Kyle Gibson and he totally dominated in his first start with allowing just 2 hits in 7 scoreless inning and striking out 7 while walking none. Conversely, the Marlins starter is expected to be Sandy Alcantara and he had more walks than strikeouts in his first start of the season with 5 free passes and 4 punch-outs. He also has lost each of his last 3 starts against the Phillies and has allowed 7 earned runs in 8 innings spanning his last 2 starts against them. Again, the starting pitching is not the key here though. Regardless of who starts, the key is that Miami has been held to an average of just 2.25 runs per game last 3 games. Conversely, the Phillies have scored 4 or more runs in 4 of their 6 games and the Marlins have not exceeded 3 runs in any of their last 4 games and were held to just 2 runs in 3 of those games. 10* PHILADELPHIA +105

*action on pitchers* MLB Game of the Week Wednesday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Run Line -1.5 +120 vs Oakland A's @ 6:40 ET - Many books, including the BIG ones here in Vegas where I live will NOT even let you list pitchers on a game. My preference is that for sure. In other words, try to always place your wagers at books that are all action whether money line, run line, or total. My write-ups often include information about the scheduled pitchers but, the fact is my plays are based on much more than just the starting pitchers. The A's lost by just a single run yesterday but I sense a blowout here. Last season Oakland went 30-51 against teams with a winning record. The Rays last season went 52-20 against teams with a losing record. TB generally does not falter against bad teams and Oakland is going to be down this season and I look for Mcclanahan to dominate the Athletics in this one. The A's are expected to start Montas and he normally is solid but he struggled against the Phillies in his first start. Considering how Philadelphia has struggled at the plate so far this season that is a bad sign for Montas. Now he faces a TB team that is 4-1 so far this season and has scored an average of 6 runs per game last 4 games. No matter who is on the mound as starting pitchers in this one, Tampa is the better team with the better overall team including lineup and bullpen. Look for a strong home win by 2 or more runs in this one. 10* TAMPA BAY -1.5 +120

*action on pitchers* MLB Daytime Dominator Wednesday 8* Arizona Diamondbacks Run Line +1.5 -117 vs Houston Astros @ 3:40 ET - Many books, including the BIG ones here in Vegas where I live will NOT even let you list pitchers on a game. My preference is that for sure. In other words, try to always place your wagers at books that are all action whether money line, run line, or total. My write-ups often include information about the scheduled pitchers but, the fact is my plays are based on much more than just the starting pitchers. The Astros are 4-1 this season but only scored well in one of their five games. In the other 4 games this season Houston has scored an average of only 2.2 runs per game! It is hard to win by a big margin, even with Valdez on the mound, when you are struggling to score runs. It will not get any easier for the Astros as they are expected to face Kelly of the Diamondbacks. Look for another tight game just like yesterday's 2-1 battle. That said, regardless of which pitchers get the start here, I like the value with the home dog getting +1.5 runs for a very fair price. The Dbacks have had only one truly ugly loss this season in five games and in the other 4 games allowed an average of only 3 runs. Home team looking to avoid the sweep here and, if they do fall short, look for it - just like yesterday's game - to be by just 1 run. 8* ARIZONA +1.5 -117

*action on pitchers* MLB Network Rout Tuesday 8* Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -145 vs New York Mets @ 6:45 ET - Many books, including the BIG ones here in Vegas where I live will NOT even let you list pitchers on a game. My preference is that for sure. In other words, try to always place your wagers at books that are all action whether money line, run line, or total. My write-ups often include information about the scheduled pitchers but, the fact is my plays are based on much more than just the starting pitchers. In this case, Tylor Megill is the scheduled starter for the Mets. He started their season opener and fared very well but that was against a Nationals team that is projected to have a down season. Megill struggled in his lone start against the Phillies last season and allowed 4 earned runs and 2 homers and could not make it out of the 5th inning. Philadelphia is full of confidence right now after they rallied from an ugly 4-0 deficit fueled by a sloppy first inning. Phillies scored 5 in the bottom of the 8th to shock the Mets. Now they have former Met Zack Wheeler - slated to go 70 to 75 pitches - set to start tonight's game. Yes he is coming back from shoulder soreness but he was phenomenal last season and will again dominate his former team. Also, the Phillies bullpen has looked improved early this season. 8* PHILADELPHIA -145

*action on pitchers* MLB Fox TV Blowout Monday 8* Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -147 vs New York Mets @ 6:45 ET - Many books, including the BIG ones here in Vegas where I live will NOT even let you list pitchers on a game. My preference is that for sure. In other words, try to always place your wagers at books that are all action whether money line, run line, or total. I will talk about the scheduled pitchers but, the fact is my plays are based on much more than just the pitchers. In this case, Taijuan Walker is the scheduled starter for the Mets. He gave up 4 homers in his 2 starts at Philly last year. He also went 0-8 with a 7.13 ERA after the All-Star Game last season! Any signs of a turnaround for Walker were squelched a bit this spring as he did not fare well. As for the Phillies, Ranger Suarez emerged last season and I expect the southpaw to get it done again here. He had phenomenal numbers last season and also looked great this spring. This is a key divisional battle and I feel the Phillies even structured their rotation this way to begin the season so they could have Suarez going today and former Met Wheeler (off phenomenal season last year) to face his former team tomorrow. The Phils know how key this series and coming off a frustrating home loss to Oakland yesterday, after big wins in the first two games, the Fightin' Phillies bounce back tonight. The Mets go from facing a team (Nationals) likely to be one of the division's worst to facing one of the division's best tonight. Two strong teams for sure in this match-up but the edges (including home field - Mets went 30-51 on road last season) are lining up on the Phils here. 8* PHILADELPHIA -147

*action on pitchers* MLB Total of the Week Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros @ 4:07 ET - Many books, including the BIG ones here in Vegas where I live will NOT even let you list pitchers on a game. My preference is that for sure. In other words, try to always place your wagers at books that are all action whether money line, run line, or total. I will talk about the scheduled pitchers but, the fact is my plays are based on much more than just the pitchers. Two low-scoring grinders in this series including Saturday's pitchers duel but in between was a wild 13-6 Astros win. Scoring is down early this season as is so often the case as it takes awhile for the bats to wake up and weather can be bad in some MLB cities. However, weather will be just fine in Anaheim and this total was set as high as a 10 in some books with good reason. Urquidy scheduled to start for Astros here and he got roughed up in his last September start in Anaheim and this Angels team certainly has a potent lineup. LA starts Suarez here and his team is 1-4 in his career starts against the Astros which comes as no surprise given his 5.95 ERA and 1.83 WHIP in starts against Houston in his career. 4th straight game for these teams against each other to open the season so they are familiar with the relievers too and the bats are going to be the story this afternoon like they were on Friday. 10* OVER 9.5 in LA Angels 

MLB Daytime Dominator Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 runs -105 vs Oakland A's @ 4:05 ET - Many books, including the BIG ones here in Vegas where I live will NOT even let you list pitchers on a game. My preference is that for sure. In other words, try to always place your wagers at books that are all action whether money line, run line, or total. I will talk about the scheduled pitchers but, the fact is my plays are based on much more than just the pitchers. In this case, Kyle Gibson starts for Phillies and last year he split his time with Texas and Philly and went a rock solid 7-3 with a 2.81 ERA in home games and a superb 4-1 with a 2.77 ERA in day games. In his starts at Citizens Bank Park he dominated in terms of hits allowed except for one bad start versus the ultra-potent Dodgers. In his other 5 starts at CBP he allowed just 15 hits in 23 innings! Now he faces an Oakland team that only had 6 hits yesterday and were it not for a 3-run bomb, would have had a very dismal effort at the plate yesterday. This A's team is just not very good and now former Phillie Cole Irvin is scheduled to take the mound for the Athletics. He led the American League in losses last season with 15! No disrespect as he is a solid young arm but I expect him to struggle here as he tries to overdo it against his former team and this Phillies lineup is stacked as they showed yesterday in the 9-5 win. The Phillies do have a lot of lefty lumber but the lefty Irvin actually hit just as hard by lefties as righties last year. Also, Oakland was very bad last season against teams with a winning record and this A's team is nowhere close to the level of last year's team so this looks like another ugly road loss for them and we'll take the run line this team with Philly as the money line just too high today in the -200 range. But Phils should win big again! 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 runs -105

*action on pitchers* MLB Daytime Dominator Friday 7* Philadelphia Phillies -175 vs Oakland A's @ 3:05 ET - Long-time followers know I rarely lay big prices but I just not want to get burned here if the Phillies win this game by a single run. So, instead of going to the run line here, I am simply reducing the rating. Note that laying 7* on a -175 is equivalent to laying 10* on a -120 favorite. So, we are not getting "crazy" here, we are managing our risk in a situation in which I see high win probability for the hosts. Not only is Philly at home and a much better overall team in comparison with Oakland, I feel all the roster attrition is really effecting Oakland mentally entering this season. Montas is now "the guy" in the rotation with Bassitt and Manaea gone and this puts extra pressure on him. He gave up a lot of hits in his two spring appearances. Though Nola had a high ERA last season by his standards, he pitched much better than the ERA shows and was guilty of making mistake pitches on 2-strike counts. I do not expect a repeat of that from him this season plus today he is taking on a rather sub-par A's lineup. Also, throughout his career Nola has been much tougher in home starts compared to on the road. It all adds up to a dominating home effort here in my opinion and he will get plenty of run support with this potent Philly lineup supporting him. No matter who the starting pitchers are, lay the price as the much better overall team rolls to a big home opener win in this one. 7* PHILADELPHIA -175