MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -125 vs Washington Nationals @ 1:35 ET - Phillies had been hot but then entered Saturday off a surprising 2-1 loss to the Nationals Friday. Sure enough they bounced right back with a 19-4 yesterday. Philadelphia has Suarez expected to start here and the Phillies left-hander has been great over his last 6 starts with only 5 earned runs allowed in 40 innings of work for a 1.13 ERA!  Suarez is in top form!  As for the Nationals, Trevor Williams has been hit at a .304 clip on the road this season and he is coming off a tough June.  Williams has been roughed up in 5 of his last 6 starts!   The Phillies have won 19 of 25 games. They will build off yesterday's 19-4 win and keep on rolling today.  The better team at home and note that the Nationals have gone 12-31 this season against teams with a winning record.  The Phillies have gone 25-11 this season against teams with a losing record.  Mismatch!  10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -125

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 10 in Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 10:05 ET - The over is the play here. The Angels are expected to start Tyler Anderson and he has allowed 20 earned runs in 26 innings over his last 5 starts. The southpaw has a 5.54 ERA on the season and is getting hit at a .283 clip. The Diamondbacks Ryne Nelson has two good starts in his last six but in the other 4 starts he allowed 16 earned runs in 18 and 2/3 innings. This one shapes up to be another ugly one as the Angels are #5 in the league for slugging percentage. By the way, the Diamondbacks are right behind them at #6 in the league for slugging percentage. These are two potent lineups and, after last night's game was rather light-hitting and stayed under the total, look for a bounce back performance here. Plenty of runs likely.  10* OVER 10 in Los Angeles Angels 

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 +100 vs Washington Nationals @ 4:05 ET - Phillies had been hot but are off a surprising 2-1 loss to the Nationals yesterday. They should bounce right back here. Philadelphia has Wheeler expected to go here and he is 5-1 with a 3.05 ERA in day games this season. He is known for pitching very well at Citizens Bank Park as well and loves pitching in Philly. As for the Nationals, Gore is 1-5 the last two months. Also his month-by-month ERA has gone from a 3.00 to a 4.06 to a 4.55 ERA in June. Additionally, Washington has never won 4 games in a row this season. They now enter this game on a 3-game winning streak. In other words, fading the Nats here is putting yourself in a never-lost situation for 2023 involving the Nationals. In fact, Washington is 2-10 last 12 times when entering a game on a winning streak of 2 or more games. The Phillies entered yesterday's game 18-5 last 23 games. They will bounce right back here in a big way. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 +100

MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 11 in Colorado Rockies vs Detroit Tigers @ 8:10 ET - The Tigers are one of the worst hitting teams in the league but Coors Field has a way of bringing out the best in visiting teams. Not only that, facing a pitcher like Austin Gomber certainly should help matters as well. Gomber is 3-3 with an 8.72 ERA this season at home. As for the Tigers starter here, Michael Lorenzen is expected to get the call here. He has struggled in his last 4 starts. 15 earned runs in 23 and 2/3 innings for Lorenzen in his last 4 starts and those were all at home. The Rockies can score well at home and certainly should here. The Tigers should pound the ball on the road here as they take advantage of a hitter-friendly park and weak pitching. The Rockies bullpen is one of the worst in the majors. Colorado games have totaled 17 or more in 3 of last 5 games. The Rockies are 4-3 last 7 games and those games have averaged 13 runs per game. Look for another one to get into that range here. 10* OVER 11 in Colorado

MLB Friday Philadelphia Phillies -170 vs Washington Nationals @ 6:05 ET - The Phillies have won 18 of 23 games. Washington is 9-29 this season against teams with a winning record. Philadelphia just swept the Cubs at Wrigley Field and they are red hot overall with wins in 4 straight games and the aforementioned 18-5 run. Washington is 7-15 in divisional games and 8-21 against left-handed starters. Christopher Sanchez is a lefty getting hit at only a .220 clip in his first few starts this season and he should enjoy success against a downtrodden Nationals team. Sanchez has also had low BAA in each of his last 4 seasons at the minor league level. As for the Phillies, they have been red hot at the plate plus they are now back home where they generally hit very very well. This team has been red hot run at home ever since their big run last season from the 2nd half of the season through a trip to the World Series. The Nationals have shockingly won 4 of 5 games but this followed a stretch in which they went 10-24. Also they have struggled so badly against winning teams as noted above. Nats are expected to start Josiah Gray and he is off a good start but this followed allowing at least 4 earned runs in 3 of 4 starts and that included one against this Phillies team. This will be a blowout win. So the road favorite, even at this price, is offering nice value here at a great low price. PHILADELPHIA -170

MLB Thursday OVER 11.5 or 12 in Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:40 ET - Going with the over again here. The weather in Denver could see some rain but still very warm temperatures. The ball carries so well here and another wild one just like yesterday's 9-8 Rockies win could be in store. The LA bullpen has struggled this season and so too has the Rockies bullpen. Only the Nationals bullpen has a higher ERA than the Colorado and Los Angeles bullpens in terms of the rankings this season in the National League. As for the expected starters here, Chase Anderson has absolutely been destroyed in his last two starts with 16 earned runs allowed in less than 6 innings of work. As for the Dodgers Emmet Sheehan, this is his first ever road start at the MLB level and Coors Field is probably the worst park in the league in terms of being a first start for a rookie pitcher. Yes, Sheehan has really impressed so far in his 2 MLB starts but both were at home. Also, this is very limited action and in the minors he never pitched above the AA level. This could be a very tough spot for him. The runs will flow again at Coors Field this evening. OVER 11.5 or 12 in Colorado

MLB Thursday Philadelphia Phillies -117 @ Chicago Cubs @ 8:05 ET - The Phillies have won 17 of 22 games. The Cubs are 19-19 last 38 home games so Wrigley Field has been nothing special for the hosts this season. The Phillies appear poised for another big win here regardless of the pitchers as they are the hotter team right now. The Cubs have lost 3 straight games at Wrigley Field and the Phillies tend to hit well here. In looking at the pitchers, Taijuan Walker has allowed only 2 earned runs in last 4 starts. In the month of June - 5 starts - Walker has allowed only 16 hits in 30 innings of work. Kyle Hendricks starts for the Cubs and he entered this season off B2B years in which his ERA was at least 4.77 for the year. This season has seen him produce a better ERA but he has an ugly 1.53 WHIP at home including allowing 17 hits in 14 innings. So the road favorite offering nice value here at a great low price. The Phillies also have won 9 of 10 road games including 8 in a row! Time for 9 straight! PHILADELPHIA -117

MLB Wednesday OVER 12.5 in Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:40 ET - Action on the pitchers. Kyle Freeland has been struggling and is the expected starter here and Dodgers may go with a bullpen game. The LA bullpen has struggled this season and so too has the Rockies bullpen. Only the Nationals bullpen has a higher ERA than the Colorado and Los Angeles bullpens in terms of the rankings this season in the National League. Freeland has allowed 25 earned runs in 34 innings spanning his last 7 starts. He is in trouble again here on a warm evening in Colorado in which the ball should be carrying quite well at Coors Field. Note that the Rockies are #2 in the NL in both batting average and slugging percentage in home games this season. The Dodgers have a .441 slugging percentage on the road this season which ranks #2 in the National League. So both teams enjoy plenty of success at the plate here as both bullpens struggle. Off a rare home shutout yesterday, you know what is likely coming today in Colorado. Games tend to be very high-scoring here. Overall, prior to yesterday's game, the Rockies last 19 games have averaged 11.6 runs per game and that includes both home and away games. The Dodgers have trended under recently but this followed a high-scoring stretch and there is a reason this game is priced this way. OVER 12.5 in Colorado

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -135 @ Chicago Cubs @ 8:05 ET - The Phillies are 16-5 last 21 games as they continue red hot. They also have won 9 of 10 road games including 7 in a row. Regardless of starting pitchers here, though definitely Nola would rate an edge over Smyly in most every experts analysis of these pitchers, I like the road team to roll. Philadelphia is hot and the Cubs have not been as special at home this season as in years past. They are only 20-18 as a host this season. Also, against teams with a winning record they are 16-27 while the Phillies are 22-10 against teams with a losing record this season. Value with the road team at a very fair price here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -135

MLB Tuesday Texas Rangers Run Line -1.5 +100 vs Detroit Tigers @ 8:05 ET - When the Tigers are entering a road game off a win they have gone 1-6 the last 7 times that situation has occurred this season. Detroit got the big 7-2 upset win yesterday and handed us a loss right here in this spot on the run line but I will come right back with the same thing today. As you might expect with a bad team like Detroit, they don't fare well when off big wins. In fact, the last 4 times they were off a win by a margin of 5 or more runs, they have gone 0-4 and they lost those 4 games by a 27-6 combined score. So this is a great play against situation that is 100% PERFECT since mid-May. As for the Rangers, they are 7-1 this season when off a loss by a margin of 5 or more runs! That includes PERFECT 2-0 when at home and off a big margin loss of 5 or more runs. That is the case here so we are working with double perfect edges and have the better team at home. Rangers are 27-11 this season against teams with a losing record this season. Detroit is 15-29 against teams with a winning record this season. TEXAS -1.5 +100

MLB Tuesday Baltimore Orioles Money Line -145 vs Cincinnati Reds @ 7:05 ET - The Reds Andrew Abbott has some great numbers but he allowed 3 homers in his most recent start and is still a rookie. The Orioles Tyler Wells has great numbers this season and more of a long-term track record than Abbott. Plus they have the home field edge here and are hosting a Reds team that has lost 3 straight games. Baltimore has won 24 of 36 home games and are red hot. Cincy was hot but now has lost 3 straight games and this is the right spot for another Orioles win. BALTIMORE -145

MLB Monday Texas Rangers Run Line -1.5 -105 vs Detroit Tigers @ 8:05 ET - This is a battle of southpaws and the Tigers are just 5-10 versus lefties this season and the Rangers are 14-8 versus lefties. Also, the Rangers are 27-10 against teams with a losing record this season plus they are 24-13 at home. The Tigers are 15-22 on the road and 14-29 against teams with a winning record this season. Texas is 5-2 this season when they enter this game off exactly 2 straight losses. In other words, they have had only 2 losing streaks reach the 3 or more mark this season. Heaney holding hitters to a .230 batting average this season and held them to .214 last season. Boyd has a 5.37 ERA this season and the Rangers have the situational edge and pitching edge and overall team edge. TEXAS -1.5 -105

MLB Monday OVER 10 in Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds @ 7 ET - This one could have a delayed start as it will be a rainy late afternoon period in Baltimore today. But I do expect they will be able to get this one in even if it starts later than originally scheduled. That said, I do not want to miss out on what should be another solid over winner involving Cincinnati. The Reds have seen 6 of last 8 games not only go over the total, the 6 games have each totaled at least 13 runs! Cincinnati has won 12 of 14 games and averaged scoring 6.5 runs in those 14 games. The Orioles last dozen games have seen 6 of them reach double digits. Baltimore's last dozen games have averaged 10 runs per game and considering the Orioles are now taking on a Reds team trending over, this looks like a slugfest. Two solid lineups involved. I like this play regardless of starting pitchers but will mention that the Reds Brandon Williamson has a 5.40 ERA on the season and has been getting hit at a .289 clip this month. The Orioles Cole Irvin has a 7.71 ERA this season and opponents are hitting .316 against him. OVER 10 in Baltimore

MLB Sunday OVER 11.5 in Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves @ 1:40 ET - Levi Stoudt gets the start for the Reds and Charlie Morton expected to start for the Braves. No matter who gets the call here as starting pitchers, I look for these two teams to remain red hot at the plate and I am expecting plenty of runs. From 2020 to 2023, Morton is actually just 4-10 in day games. He tends to struggle more in his day game outings and, overall, he is on the cusp of some real struggles this season too. Morton has a low ERA but he has been hit at a .259 clip so far this season and so he is fortunate his ERA has remained low. Morton is 1-3 with a 4.15 ERA and opponents hitting .274 against him in day games this season. The Reds are so hot at the plate plus they are at home so I am expecting continued success for their lineup here. The issue for Cincinnati however will be that the Braves are likely to keep pounding away at the plate also. Stoudt is a young hurler that has a 10.29 ERA in his 2 games (1 start) so far for the Reds this season. At the AAA level of the minors this season he has as many walks as strikeouts with 26 of each in his 36 innings of work. Atlanta enters this one having won 9 of 10 games and they have scored an average of 8.2 runs during this hot streak. Cincinnati had won 12 in a row before yesterday's high-scoring loss. The Reds averaged 6.6 runs during this 13-game stretch. I am looking for another 7-6 or 8-7 type game here given the above numbers. OVER 11.5 in Cincinnati 

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins @ 7:15 ET - The Tigers don't hit very well but this is a low total and a great spot to back them. After a 4-1 loss yesterday, Detroit - who generally is a better team at home - should  bounce back here. Pablo Lopez had one good start last five games but in the other 4 he allowed 17 earned runs. It is not as if he is a dominant pitcher. As for Reese Olson, he has been hit quite hard last two starts and both of those were at home. He has allowed 9 earned runs in 9 and 1/3 innings in those two outings and faces a tough Minnesota team here. The Twins have won the last two games by a combined score of 10 to 1. Minny, prior to this, has seen 9 of last 11 games total at least 8 runs. Those 9 games averaged 11.4 runs per game! We should certainly have no trouble getting past 8 runs in this one on a warm evening at Comerica Park for this one. OVER 8 in Detroit

MLB Friday OVER 10.5 in Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves @ 6:40 ET - This match-up features the two hottest teams in the majors and I am expecting plenty of runs as they both stay hot. There are even some 11s out there and we are going to grab the 10.5 for the value here. As for the expected Braves starter, AJ Smith-Shawver, he is still an unproven rookie that has surprised in 2023 compared to what we saw of him in the minors prior to this. I look for him to come back down to earth here. These are two potent lineups and I look for them to cash in on many of the opportunities that they are presented with here. Cincinnati is starting Luke Weaver and he has allowed at least 3 earned runs in 9 of his 11 starts this season. Weaver has particularly struggled this month with a 10.13 ERA and opponents hitting .356 against him. Weaver has a 7.75 ERA in his 7 night game starts this season. The Braves have won 8 straight games and scored an average of 8 runs per game in this winning streak. The Reds have won 11 straight games and have scored an average of 6 runs per game during this winning streak. I feel confident we'll see at least a 6-5 type game here but really should see much more in a hitters park with two of the hottest teams in the majors. OVER 10.5 in Cincinnati

MLB Thursday OVER 7.5 in New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners @ 7:05 ET - This total has dropped to a 7.5 and is just too low in my opinion. I know both these teams have solid bullpens but I like these two lineups and I like the fact that both teams should hit these starters well. Domingo German gets the start for the Yankees and he just got rocked for 7 earned runs in just 2 innings in his most recent start. Also, just about 3 weeks ago in his final start of May he allowed 4 earned runs to this Seattle. Now in this one the Mariners start Bryan Woo and the rookie right-hander is off a solid home debut but allowed 8 earned runs in about 7 innings in his two starts before that and these were both on the road. So look for runs here as I know this series has been low-scoring but the Mariners entered this one with their last 7 road games averaging 12 runs apiece! 6 of the 7 totaled at least 8 runs and this one will too. Yes I know is cool weather in the Bronx by late June standards but these teams will still hit well here. The Yankees have won 4 of 5 against the Mariners this season and averaged 6.8 runs scored per game in the 4 victories. This one gets both teams back to higher scoring ways based on the pitching match-up expected. I am going action on the pitchers but do like the starters here for a higher-scoring game. OVER 7.5 in New York Yankees

MLB Tuesday OVER 8.5 in Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves @ 6:40 ET - My first thought when I looked at this one was possibly playing the underdog Phillies. Suarez has been pitching very well for them while Strider has actually been struggling for the Braves. However, I just can not fade this red hot Braves lineup right now. Atlanta enters this game having won 13 of 15 games. The Braves have scored 7.4 runs per game during this red hot stretch. This includes 9.3 runs per game during their current 6-game winning streak. This total is only an 8.5 and 7 straight Atlanta games have totaled at least 9 runs. The Phillies also have been hot with wins in 13 of 16 games. Philadelphia has scored an average of 5.6 runs during this hot streak. Unlike the Braves, the Phils have been getting better pitching most recently but again, I just can not fade these red hot Atlanta hitters right now. That said, I do expect the Phillies to stay hot also and that means this one should get to 9 or more runs rather easily. OVER 8.5 in Philadelphia

MLB Monday OVER 9 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:05 ET - These teams (and these pitchers!) just matched up. Both Smyly and Bido gave up some big runs in that one PLUS there was a lot of hard contact with line drive outs, etc. The results could have been even worse is the point and now these guys face each other again and those same lineups are getting another quick look at them. I am looking for plenty of runs on a warm evening in Pittsburgh. Also, the Pirates struggled on the road but are now back home where they are a different team. The Cubs 6 of last 7 games have totaled at least 9 runs. Chicago has averaged 7.3 runs per game last 6 games. The bullpens rank 23rd and 24th this season for the Pirates and Cubs this season and should help our cause here as well. OVER 9 in Pittsburgh 

MLB Monday Toronto Blue Jays -150 @ Miami Marlins @ 6:40 ET - Berrios has allowed only 11 earned runs in his last 8 starts and those outings have spanned 51 innings of work. Known for some road struggles throughout his career, he has been solid both at home and on the road during this red hot run. Action on pitchers here as I am not overly concerned with whether Bryan Hoeing gets the start or if this is more of a bullpen game for Miami. The Blue Jays and Marlins look similar this season in a lot of categories but yet I look up and down these lineups and I still like the road team much more. Looking at on-base percentage the Jays rank 5th in majors while Miami is 15th. Both teams have been strong in interleague action this season but the Marlins have seen their winning streaks ended at 4 games on 3 of 4 occasions thus far. They do enter this one on a 4-game run. The Blue Jays are off B2B losses and 5 of 7 times this season when they enter a game on a 2-game losing streak they snapped it in the next game. Also, the Jays are off an 11-7 loss to the Rangers and are a perfect 5-0 the last 5 times they entered a game off a loss in which they allowed at least 9 runs. Bounce back spot here makes it 6-0 last 6. Toronto -150

MLB Sunday OVER 8 in Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox @ 4:10 ET - Yesterday's game went 11 innings. This taxed both bullpens for sure. Additionally the teams combined for 5 of 32 with runners in scoring position! That is a disgusting lack of clutch hits and I am sure today's game will play out much differently after yesterday's total (7 runs) pushed for most totals players. Lance Lynn expected to start for the White Sox here and he is 1-3 with a 10.54 ERA in his 4 day game starts this season. He is struggling overall and Seattle can hit well at home. The Mariners also have a pitching concern here as Bryce Miller is off a strong start but he had been hammered in his two starts leading into that one. The White Sox have hit a little bit better last 4 games and both Chicago and Seattle should do better in clutch situations here after struggling yesterday in the 4-3 extra innings White Sox win. The Mariners have averaged scoring 5 runs per game last 7 games and will bounce back after yesterday's disappointing home loss was filled with wasted opportunities. Lynn should get rocked and the ChiSox bullpen has weaknesses too. The Mariners bullpen ranks in the middle of the pack for bullpen WHIP while Chicago's bullpen ERA ranks them as one of the worst in the majors. This total just too low considering all of the above factors. 10* OVER 8 in Seattle

MLB Sunday OVER 7.5 in Oakland Athletics vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 4:05 ET - Action on pitchers because the last time Hogan Harris pitched it was following an opener. The A's may change their mind and elect to do the same here. Yesterday's game went 12 innings. This taxed both bullpens for sure. Additionally the teams combined for 3 of 32 with runners in scoring position! That is a disgusting lack of clutch hits and I am sure today's game will play out much differently. Harris has not been getting many strikeouts but is off a long, successful outing versus the Rays. This was surprising and he had more walks than strikeouts in his only start this season. Also, in his first appearance of this season he struggled badly. Overall, he is a little over-valued right now as he does not get many K's and plus could struggle here coming off such a long outing. As for Zack Wheeler, he certainly is a great pitcher but he tends to be much stronger at home since coming to the Phillies. This has been a trend every season with Philly and he is off a strong road start but this followed struggling in 4 of his first 6 starts away from home this season. Oakland has been playing better of late and the Phillies are red hot so we'll see more clutch hitting and a lot of runs here. This total just too low the way I see it. 10* OVER 7.5 in Oakland 

Saturday MLB Los Angeles Angels Money Line -165 @ Kansas City Royals @ 4:10 ET - The Angels won yesterday's game 3-0. The Royals continue to be an absolute disaster this season. Kansas City has lost 10 straight games and they are 9-27 at home and 8-37 against teams with a winning record. Opponents are hitting .299 against Mike Mayers this season plus this 8-year veteran has a 5.10 ERA in his MLB career. The Angels counter with Griffin Canning and he has allowed just 7 earned runs in 24 innings over his last 4 starts so he has settled in nicely. He is facing a KC team that has lost 20 of last 24 games and scored just 2.5 runs per game in last 14 losses. The Royals will be just no match here for an LA team that has won 10 of 12 games and scored 5.4 runs per game last 11 games. Look for a road rout here given all the above. The Royals have lost 10 in a row so this is a play against situation going for 11-0 in terms of fading Kansas City. Lay the road price here. LOS ANGELES ANGELS -165

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Oakland Athletics vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 4:07 ET - I know we lost with this play here yesterday but I will come right back with it today. Walker surprised me with a strong start yesterday but I expect Christopher Sanchez to get hit hard here. He certainly was not overly impressive in the minor this season nor has he ever really been. Sanchez has a 4.36 ERA in his career in the minors. Also, he has a 5.53 ERA at the MLB level. I know Oakland struggled yesterday but the Athletics had finally been playing better baseball the past two weeks and hotter hitting had been a part of it. As for the Phillies bats, they have been hot too and that has helped lead the way to a strong stretch for them the past two weeks as well. I am expecting them to enjoy success against James Kaprielian in this one. Kaprielian has a 2-6 record and a 6.89 ERA on the season and he is 0-4 in day games this season.  Without a shadow of a doubt, he certainly has not been overly dominant and the red hot Philly sticks will take advantage. The Phillies are 11-2 last 13 games and have scored an average of 6 runs last 14 games. Oakland, before yesterday's dud, had scored an average of 5 runs last 11 games and they went 7-2 in those 9 games. So both teams have extra confidence at the plate right now and we have a value total of 9 on this one. The A's are off a 4-3 loss and 6-1 loss but this was preceded by 7 of last 11 games totaling at least 9 runs and I feel certain this one will get to that mark as well and eventually land in double digits. 10* OVER 9 in Oakland

MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Oakland Athletics vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 9:40 ET - I know the Phillies Taijuan Walker is off B2B strong starts but those were both at home. Note that Walker has gone just 3-3 with a 6.75 ERA on the road this season. Opponents are hitting nearly .300 against Walker when he is on the road. The Athletics have finally been playing better baseball the past two weeks and hotter hitting has been a part of it. As for the Phillies bats, they have been hot too and that has helped lead the way to a strong stretch for them the past two weeks as well. I am expecting them to enjoy success against JP Sears in this one. Sears has decent numbers on the season but he did allow 6 hits in 5 innings in most recent start. The start before that he walked 5 in 4 and 2/3 innings! The two starts prior to that combined for just 3 strikeouts in 11 innings so he certainly has not been overly dominant and the red hot Philly sticks will take advantage. The Phillies are 10-2 last 12 games and have scored an average of 6 runs last 13 games. Oakland has scored an average of 5 runs last 11 games and they are 7-2 last 9 games. So both teams have extra confidence at the plate right now and we have a value total of 8.5 on this one. The A's are off a 4-3 loss but this was preceded by 7 of last 11 games totaling at least 9 runs and I feel certain this one will get to that mark as well. 10* OVER 8.5 in Oakland

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -125 @ Arizona Diamondbacks @ 3:40 ET - Phillies have been a streaky team this season and right now they are again in one of those hot zones. While I certainly respect Arizona, when you look at their lineup it is much weaker at the bottom than the Phillies. This Philadelphia team is stronger 1 through 9 - definitely the deeper lineup. Also, they rested Alec Bohm yesterday and he should be back in that potent lineup today. The Phillies have won 9 of 11 games and have scored an average of 6 runs last dozen games. Nola is off a tougher start versus a strong Dodgers team but he still has allowed a total of only 54 hits in the 72 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 11 starts. Nola has looked a lot like vintage Nola for much of this long stretch since a rough start in his first 3 outings of the season. Ryne Nelson gets the call for the Diamondbacks here and he has a 6.62 ERA in his 7 homes starts this season and a 1.70 WHIP in those outings. Walks have been a significant issue in his recent home starts and the Phillies have the potent lineup to make him pay. Diamondbacks have now lost 4 of last 5 at home and the Phillies are well worth the short road money line price here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -125

MLB Wednesday Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 -155 @ Oakland Athletics @ 9:40 ET - I know Oakland has won 7 straight games but it is ending here in a big way. Glasnow is 17-4 since the 2019 season and has been one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball when he is healthy. He certainly looks healthy now as Glasnow has progressively gotten better in each of his 3 starts since coming back from injury. So here you have an expected match-up of Glasnow, 4 losses since 2019, versus Luis Medina who has 5 losses this season alone! Medina is 1-5 with a 7.53 ERA and I also like the fact that 36 of 48 Rays wins by at least 2 run margin this season. 39 of 50 Oakland losses by at least a 2-run margin. The value, even at the -155 price range, is on the run line in this one in what should play out as a road rout here. TAMPA BAY -1.5 -155

MLB Wednesday OVER 9.5 in Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies @ 7:10 ET - Yes, yesterday's game totaled 13 runs but had 5 runs scored in extra innings. That is one way to look at it but another is that it was 4-4 through 6 innings. So it was not necessarily a lucky over and I feel Wednesday's will leave no doubt. Gomber is struggling badly for the Rockies and he has a 7.57 ERA this season after a 5.56 ERA last season. Whitlock has been getting hit hard for the Red Sox and that includes his most recent home start too. Also, Whitlock has a 6.46 ERA in his 3 night starts this season and has bene hit at a .354 clip in those starts. Look for him to struggle here and the Red Sox bullpen has been only mediocre this season and the Rockies bullpen has struggled this season. The Rockies have scored at least 4 runs in 10 of last 12 games and of course the Red Sox are a big favorite here for a reason. Boston is hitting .286 at home this season and that ranks 2nd in the majors. The Red Sox average 5.7 runs per game at hone on the year. More of the same here. OVER 9.5 in Boston

MLB Wednesday OVER 9 or 9.5 in Kansas City Royals vs Cincinnati Reds @ 8:10 ET - The Royals have lost 8 straight games but do tend to hit better at home. Also, there is no way I am trusting Lively on the road for the Reds. He is having a disastrous June so far. Also, the Royals Lynch is recently back in the rotation and he is normally solid but has been hit quite hard this month. This one shapes up well for plenty of runs as the Royals bullpen is one of the worst in the league and the Reds bullpen is only a middle of the pack type pen so far this season. Also, Cincinnati enters this one hitting .260 on the road which is 4th in majors. KC has a .403 slugging percentage at home and that respectably ranks them in the middle of the pack. 21 of Royals last 32 home games have totaled at least 9 runs and so expecting this one to get to double digits is certainly not asking too much. Especially true when considering that Reds 22 of last 31 games overall have totaled at least 9 runs. OVER 9 or 9.5 in Kansas City

MLB Tuesday OVER 8.5 in Oakland Athletics vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 9:40 ET - The Athletics have shockingly won 6 straight games but I don't trust them to get another win here but also would not want to fade a 6-game winning streak either. What I am forecasting here is plenty of hitting here. This is regardless of the pitching match-up but do not that both Harris and Beeks have unimpressive numbers. In terms of the hitting here, Oakland has averaged 6 runs scored per game in their last 8 games and Tampa Bay has been one of the best hitting teams in baseball all season long and averaged about 6 runs scored per game on the season. The over is the play here as Rays were 9-2 last 11 games before yesterday's loss and did average scoring 5 runs per game during that stretch. Two hot teams at the plate and a rather low total. We'll take it! OVER 8.5 in Oakland

MLB Tuesday Philadelphia Phillies -125 @ Arizona Diamondbacks @ 9:40 ET - The Phillies lost a tight one yesterday and should bounce right back here. Philadelphia had been hot with wins in 7 of last 8 games. Also, Philly bounce back from most recent loss and also has won each of last two times they were off a loss by a margin of 1 run. The Phillies are expected to start Wheeler here and he has dominated in 2 of last 3 starts. Also, they welcomed Bohm back to the lineup and the and the Phillies pounded the ball in yesterday's slim defeat. The Diamondbacks are expected to start Davies here and he has struggled at home this season with opponents hitting .321 against him in Arizona where he has a 6.75 ERA thusfar. Regardless of starting pitchers, look for the road team to bounce back here at a very fair price. PHILADELPHIA -125

MLB Tuesday OVER 7 in Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins @ 9:40 ET - First off this is a low total and I like the over regardless of starting pitchers. However, George Kirby is expected to go and he has been roughed up in 2 of his last 3 outings. Simply put, he has not looked like the Kirby we are use to seeing. As for the Marlins Edward Cabrera, he is 5-0 at home but 0-4 on the road and he has a 5.91 ERA away from home with an ugly 1.53 WHIP. Miami had just one hit in yesterday's game but this was preceded by a 13-4 run in which they averaged 5.6 runs per game. The Mariners were struggling in the run-scoring department on the road but are now back home and, after yesterday's 8-1 win, are averaging 5 runs scored last 11 home games. Overall, 10 of last 13 Mariners games have totaled at least 8 runs and those 10 games averaged 12.4 runs per game. Just get half that here and we are almost there but certainly we should see much more and this one would not surprise me to double digits. OVER 7 in Seattle

MLB Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +100 @ Arizona Diamondbacks @ 9:40 ET - Action on pitchers. This is essentially a bullpen game for the Phillies as starter Matt Strahm likely to go just a few innings here. He has been solid in most of his outings this season whether as a starter or out of the bullpen. Also, the Phillies bullpen has been much stronger for quite some time now after an unexpected rough start to the season. The Diamondbacks starter is expected to be Tommy Henry here. He has made 9 appearances this season and one of them was a stellar performance but, in the other 8 Henry has a 5.17 ERA. Last year, in his rookie season, Henry had a 5.36 ERA. So, the point is, there is little reason to expect success for him here and the Phillies have been red hot. I know the Diamondbacks have been hot too but it has been other starting pitchers that have helped lead the way. This is not a good set up with Henry on the mound and I look for the Phillies to take full advantage. 10* PHILADELPHIA +100

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:10 ET - Yankees are 8-5 last 13 games and have scored an average of 6 runs in the 8 wins. Red Sox have not been scoring as well but still have averaged 4 runs per game last dozen games. We have a low total to work with here and the Yankees Schmidt is 1-5 at home this season plus has an overall 4.96 ERA this season. Boston's Bellos is 5-12 in his MLB career plus the Yankees saw him twice last season. He has a low ERA versus the Yankees but has given up 12 hits in 11 innings against him. The Yankees should hit Bello hard and I look for the Red Sox to get to Schmidt also. The first two games in this series have been dead unders but a lot of that had to do with some solid pitchers on the mound. This one sets up much differently. 10* OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 or 9 in Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners @ 4:05 ET - I know the current number on this one, as of 9:30 AM ET, is still a 9 but I would not be surprised to see some 8.5 start showing up. Either way, this is a play for me. Only 1 team out of all 30 had more than 12 hits yesterday. That was this Mariners team and they piled up 16 hits! Even with that the game stayed under the total as it was a 6-2 win for Seattle. That said, I look for this one to make up for that. I know Gilbert and Canning have some solid numbers but, prior to yesterday, 8 of last 12 Mariners games had totaled at least 9 runs. In fact, those 8 games averaged 14 runs and I like our chances of a wild one here. The Angels, prior to yesterday's loss, had won 7 of 11 games and scored an average of 5 runs during this stretch. We'll see runs here as the Angels had won 5 in a row before yesterday's loss and the Mariners had 6 runs on 16 hits yesterday. 10* OVER 8.5 or 9 in Los Angeles Angels

MLB Saturday OVER 9 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets @ 4:05 ET - Move quickly on this to get a 9 as the line very well could end up on the move to a 9.5 and 9 is, of course, a key number with MLB totals.  It looked more like a Steelers/Jets final score (14 to 7) yesterday rather than a Pirates/Mets game but we should see another wild one today. The fact is that Kodai Senga has struggled much more on the road than at home and the Pirates Johan Oviedo had struggled for most of his last 6 starts before coming up with a rare strong outing versus league-worst Oakland in his most recent start.  From a pitching standpoint the set up here is perfect. Additionally, the Mets last 5 games have all totaled double digits in runs and 8 of the Pirates last 11 games have totaled at least 9 runs. This one sets up well to be another slugfest. OVER 9 in Pittsburgh

MLB Saturday Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -105 vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 4:05 ET - The Phillies have won 6 straight games. They are 18-10 at home this season and were very strong at home as last season went along too and this helped lead them to the World Series. Speaking of being strong at home, Aaron Nola has fantastic long-term stats pitching in Philly. He loves pitching at home and is 42-18 at home dating back to the 2017 season. A 70% win rate over a span of 7 season is pretty damn good and Nola keeps it rolling here. Bobby Miller gets the start for the Dodgers here and the rookie has been surprisingly strong so far though it has been in limited action - 3 starts this season. Lets not forget he had a 5.65 ERA in the minors this season and also a 4.25 ERA in all minor league action last season. This could be a tougher start for him here with Philly so strong at home and also a red hot team right now loaded with confidence at the plate. One of the reasons the Dodgers have not been as strong this season is the bullpen and that is weakness of theirs this season. Conversely, the Phillies bullpen started the season sluggish but has been really hot ever since and continues to move up in the bullpen rankings week by week. PHILADELPHIA -105

MLB Friday OVER 11 in Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres @ 8:40 ET - Move quickly on this to get an 11 as the line is on the move and 11 is, of course, a key number with MLB totals at hitter-friendly parks like Coors Field. The fact is that Darvish has struggled much more on the road than at home the past 3 seasons and the Rockies Gomber has struggled much more at home than on the road this season. Gomber has an 8.64 ERA in his 7 starts at Coors Field. From a pitching standpoint the set up here is perfect. Additionally, the Padres have scored well in 10 of their last 16 games. Given the set up here, this should be one of those strong games at the plate at a hitter-friendly park and note that they scored 7.4 runs per game in those 10 games. 5 of the Rockies last 8 home games have been very high-scoring and, overall, those 8 home games have averaged 13 runs per game. This one sets up well to be a slugfest that finishes in that range as well. OVER 11 in Colorado

MLB Friday OVER 9 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets @ 7:05 ET - Move quickly on this to get a 9 as the line is on the move and 9 is, of course, a key number with MLB totals. The fact is that Megill has struggled much more on the road than at home and the Pirates Hill has struggled much more at home than on the road. From a pitching standpoint the set up here is perfect. Additionally, the Mets last 4 games have all totaled double digits in runs and 7 of the Pirates last 10 games have totaled at least 9 runs. This one sets up well to be a slugfest. OVER 9 in Pittsburgh

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago Cubs @ 9:35 ET - Detmers is 0-5 with a 5.15 ERA this season. Smyly has allowed 8 earned runs on 14 hits in 10 innings over his last two starts. Both the Angels and Cubs have hit lefties well this season. I know that lately the Cubs have not been scoring many runs but this looks like the right spot for a breakout game on offense. The Angels will pick up right where they left off in yesterday's 6-2 win. LA has scored 13 runs so far in the first two games of this series. The Cubs Smyly had an ERA about 2 runs higher on the road than at home and about 2.5 runs higher in night games than day games when you look at his numbers from last season. That said, Angels stay hot but Cubs get going here too as Detmers struggles continue. 10* OVER 9 in Los Angeles Angels

NOTE: This game was originally going to go Wednesday but postponed by the air quality issues due to smoke in the northeast from the Canadian wildfires. I still like this play the same for Thursday and now Tyler Holton most likely will start. He has had success out of the bullpen for the Tigers but he struggled as a starter at the minor league level. Maybe Reese Olson will provide relief here too. Either way, the Tigers pitcher today is an unproven guy and the Phillies have big edge at home per ORIGINAL WRITE-UP: MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -120 vs Detroit Tigers @ 6:40 ET - Philadelphia is off 4 straight wins and plus their bats exploded Sunday and Monday so after yesterday's 1-0 win I look for the bats to wake back up today for Philly tonight. They can carry momentum from those earlier blowout wins (19 runs in 2 games) right into this game Wednesday. Tigers have lost 7 of 8 games and scored an average of only 2 runs in those 8 games. The Phillies outhit Detroit 11-3 Monday and then the Tigers again had just 3 hits yesterday. The Phillies have scored 6 runs per game last 5 games and the first 3 of those were on the road. In last 7 home games, Phillies have averaged 5 runs per game. Tigers will not be able to keep up with the hosts in this one and Detroit ends up getting blown out yet again. The Tigers are starting Reese Olson and he is a great story and had a surprisingly strong first start for Detroit in his MLB debut after making some adjustments in the minors. Trust me the Phillies watched what the White Sox did (and did not!) do against him in his MLB debut and will make the right adjustments here. As for Philadelphia's Zack Wheeler, he has a great long-term history in starts at Citizens Bank Park and I expect a strong outing from him. More of the same Tigers' struggles at the plate here in another Phillies home win. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -120

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 7:05 ET - The Nationals are expected to start Patrick Corbin here. He is struggling again after a rare decent stretch. Corbin has now allowed 36 hits in 29 innings over his last 5 starts. Also, the lefty has given up 10 runs (9 earned) while walking 8 in 11 innings over his last 2 starts. Long-term he has horrible numbers in recent years. Corbin entered this season 17-42 last 3 seasons with a very high ERA each season. The Diamondbacks starter is also a concern here in this one. Zach Davies is expected to get the call here for Arizona and he has struggled since he returned from injury. Davies has allowed 12 hits in 9 innings and is lucky the damage has not been even worse (in terms of earned runs allowed) since he returned from injury late last month. I am looking for the Nationals to hit him well here at home. Davies is a 3-8 with an ERA around 5.00 in his road starts in 2021 and 2022 combined and now this is just his 2nd road start of this season. Washington is decent at home where they have scored an average of 5 runs in their last 10 games. The Diamondbacks have been one of the better teams in the league this season in terms of hitting on the road as their .424 slugging percentage away from home ranks them 7th in the league. Also, Arizona is averaging 5.33 runs per game on the road this season. Just like yesterday's 10-5 game, I would not be surprised to see each team get to at least 5 runs in this one and that would of course mean double digits in runs here. 10* OVER 9.5 in Washington

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 7:05 ET - The Nationals are expected to start Jake Irvin here. Once he got about the single-A level in the minors he has struggled. He went 0-4 with a 4.79 ERA at the AA level last year. Then this season at AAA he was 2-2 with a 5.64 ERA. Unsurprisingly given those numbers, Irvin has also struggled at the MLB level since being called up. He is now 1-3 with a 5.67 ERA in his rookie year at the MLB level and Irvin has allowed 16 earned runs in 16 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 4 starts. The Diamondbacks starter is also a concern here for Arizona. Tommy Henry is expected to get the call and he has a 5.74 ERA in his 3 road starts this season. Last season, his rookie year, Henry had an overall 5.36 ERA and I am looking for the Nationals to hit him well here at home. Washington is decent at home where they have split their last 8 games and scored an average of 5 runs in their last 9 games. The Diamondbacks have been one of the better teams in the league this season in terms of hitting on the road as their .424 slugging percentage away from home ranks them 8th in the league. Also, Arizona is averaging 5 runs per game on the road this season. I would not be surprised to see each team get to at least 5 runs in this one and that would of course mean double digits in runs here. 10* OVER 9.5 in Washington

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 +105 vs Detroit Tigers @ 6:40 ET - Philadelphia is off 3 straight wins and plus their bats exploded Sunday plus yesterday and they can carry momentum from those blowout wins right into this game Tuesday. Tigers have lost 6 of 7 games and scored an average of only 2 runs in those 7 games. The Phillies outhit Detroit 11-3 yesterday and have scored 7.5 runs per game last 4 games and the first 3 of those were on the road. In last 6 home games, Phillies have averaged 5.7 runs per game. Tigers will not be able to keep up with the hosts in this one and Detroit ends up getting blown out yet again. The Tigers Alexander is 10-22 in his career and is making his first start of this season after working out of the bullpen exclusively thusfar. Alexander has a 6.38 ERA and has been hit at a .303 clip in his 16 outings this season. Walker does not have great overall numbers for the Phillies but, in his home starts, he has a 3.60 ERA and has held opponents to a .191 batting average. More of the same here in another Phillies home rout. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 +105

MLB Monday OVER 9.5 in Texas Rangers vs St Louis Cardinals @ 8:05 ET -  The Rangers are really hot at the plate right now. They should have no trouble hitting Wainwright here as the 41-year old is nearing the end of his career and has long been known for struggling more on the road. Wainwright traditionally strong at home in St Louis but not on the road. Also, Perez gets the start for Texas here and he has a 6-1 record but has a 4.43 ERA this season. Wainwright has a 6.15 ERA this season. We'll see runs here. Perez roughed up in 3 of his 5 May starts. Wainwright has struggled and remember he had over 325 career starts with Yadier Molina behind the plate. The veteran catcher retired after last season and I am sure this is impacting Wainwright also. In terms of run production, the Cardinals have struggled recently but still have averaged 5 runs per game last 22 games and will get back on track here. But these Rangers have averaged scoring 7 runs per game at home this season and, overall, are one of the best teams in the majors for production at the plate. They stay hot here. OVER 9.5 in Texas

MLB Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -115 vs Detroit Tigers @ 6:40 ET - Wentz has a 1-5 record and a 7.28 ERA for the Tigers. Nola has traditionally been a great pitcher at home throughout his Phillies career. Philadelphia is off B2B wins and plus their bats exploded yesterday and they can carry momentum from that blowout win right into this game. Tigers have lost 5 of 6 games and scored an average of only 2 runs in those 6 games. Phillies have scored 7.3 runs per game last 3 games and those were on the road. In last 5 home games, Phillies have averaged 5.2 runs per game. Tigers will not be able to keep up with the hosts in this one and Detroit ends up getting blown out. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -115

MLB Sunday OVER 9 in Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels @ 2:10 ET - The Angels Canning has been pitching quite well but does have a 5.40 ERA on the road and a 7.90 ERA in day games this season. The Astros have won 7 of 9 games and scored an average of 7 runs in those 7 victories. Houston's France has decent numbers on the season but he has been roughed up in both of his home starts. He just made his MLB debut last month and he is facing an Angels lineup that certainly can be tough. Los Angeles has a .263 batting average on the road and that is 5th in the majors. The Angels scored 6 runs yesterday and have averaged scoring 5 runs on this road trip. LA also is 6th in the majors for batting average in day games. I look for them to come up big here in this one but they won't be able to slow down the world champs at the plate either. That means another OVER is likely here. OVER 9 in Houston

MLB Sunday OVER 9 in Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies @ 2:10 ET - I know that the Royals do not have great overall hitting numbers but they are decent in terms of batting average against southpaws and also have a respectable slugging percentage in home games as they rank in the middle of the pack in that category. Here they take on a struggling Kyle Freeland. The Rockies left-hander has seen his strikeout numbers way down and he has been hit hard in 3 straight starts. No it is not a Coors Field issue either as he has allowed 5 earned runs in each of his last two road starts. As for Royals starter Brady Singer here, the righty is off a decent start in his last outing but this was preceded by him allowing at least 5 earned runs in 6 of 9 starts. Singer has not just been getting hit a little bit as you can see, he has been getting hammered. Now enter a Rockies team that has been swinging the bats decently and you have the recipe for another game at Kauffmann Stadium that reaches the double digit mark in runs. Both clubs have had bullpen issues this season too. Colorado has scored 17 runs in last 3 road games and they stay hot here. Royals get rolling against a struggling Freeland as he wakes their bats up. OVER 9 in Kansas City

MLB Saturday OVER 9.5 in Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies @ 4:10 ET - Very surprising that Rockies bullpen was successful yesterday. Both these pens have struggled this season and Colorado did explode for a  6-run inning late yesterday but the total fell just short of going over. Look for today's to make up for that here. The Rockies Gomber has a 7.00 ERA this season and opponents are hitting nearly .300 against him. He has an 8.26 ERA in day games and opponents hitting .325 against him in afternoon action. The Royals Lynch is making just his 2nd start since returning from injury and note his injury was a rotator cuff strain to his left (throwing) arm. His shoulder should be okay now but that is still a bit of a worrisome injury. He is 8-19 with a 5.27 ERA in his MLB career and he has been hit at a .290 clip. We should see plenty of scoring from both clubs here considering all of the above and the bullpens of each as well. OVER 9.5 in Kansas City

MLB Saturday OVER 9 in Pittsburgh vs St Louis @ 4 ET - Montgomery 2-6 with a 4.48 ERA. Ortiz is 1-4 with a 4.42 ERA in his career but also has a 1.69 WHIP this season as walks have been an issue too. Yesterday's game totaled 12 runs and that was the 3rd time last 4 games that a Pittsburgh game totaled at least a dozen runs. The Cardinals have seen 8 of last 13 road games total double digits in runs. Look for another wild one this afternoon at PNC Park. OVER 9 in Pittsburgh

MLB Friday OVER 8.5 in San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs @ 9:40 ET - The Padres should hammer Taillon. The Cubs righty is off to a tough start this season and I like the fact this total was a 9 and has dropped to an 8.5 in most spots. I totally understand the move but respect the number the odds makers first had up there on this one. That said, Taillon consistently has been roughed up in his starts and though Michael Wacha has been pitching well for San Diego, I am expecting a solid effort from Chicago. The Cubs last road trip last 9 games and started with a 6-2 win and ended with a 2-1 loss. But in the middle were 7 games that all totaled double digits and average 13 runs per game! Perhaps the road will again get the Cubs sticks going again here. I also like the fact the Padres have scored 7 or more runs in 6 of last 10 games. San Diego averaged 6 runs scored per game during this stretch. More of the same here. OVER 8.5 in San Diego

MLB Friday OVER 9.5 in Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies @ 8:10 ET - Lyles has been so consistently bad that you know he is destined to give up a handful of runs here. I know Anderson has pitched well for the Rockies but there are some signs that the wheels are about to come off in one of these starts. Royals do tend to hit a little better at home and Colorado can be counted on to do damage against a struggling Lyles here. That said, and considering a pair of suspect bullpens (as Rockies showed again last night), look for this one to get to double digits in runs scored. OVER 9.5 in Kansas City

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies @ 3:40 ET - This total dropped from a 10 to a 9.5 and I like fading the line moves when other factors line up and that is certainly the case here. The Diamondbacks Zach Davies has not been right this season and is trying to now also come back from an oblique injury and the first start back did not go well at all. He is now 8-18 the past 3 seasons combined and with a high ERA in the 5.00 range these past 3 seasons combined. Davies will not be the only starter likely to struggle here. Note that Connor Seabold has struggled for the Rockies but whether it is him or Chase Anderson I like the over in this one. As per usual, I am going with action on the pitchers and Anderson did have an ugly 1.57 WHIP in the minors before he was called up. I know the journeyman veteran has had some surprising success this season in his limited MLB action in 2023 but he really struggled in the start before his most recent one. That was home against the Marlins and he allowed 8 hits in less than 6 innings and he had 2 walks against just 1 strikeout in that outing. Anderson is due for a regression to the mean and I think that Marlins start is a sign of the reality that is soon on the way for him. Regardless of starting pitchers I like the over here as neither bullpen has been good this season and I expect the hitting to resume like we had seen in Monday's game. OVER 9.5 in Arizona

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies +150 @ New York Mets @ 1:10 ET - 3 key angles here. The Phillies have never been swept in a series in the eastern time zone this season. Sweeps are rare to begin with and I don't see Phillies getting swept against division rival Mets. That is where the next couple of key angles comes in actually. Speaking of divisions and rivals, Scherzer use to pitch with Nationals and now is with Mets and so the Phillies see plenty of him and they actually have hit him well in recent meetings. Thirdly, and the other part of this rivalry aspect, Walker use to pitch for the Mets. Now he faces his former team and you know he will be up for this start. The underdog value is tough to pass up here in my opinion. 10* PHILADELPHIA +150

MLB Wednesday Philadelphia Phillies -115 @ New York Mets @ 7:10 ET - Nola was really looking sharp and having great command of his pitches and looking like vintage Nola before his most recent start ended up being a tough one. I fully expect him to bounce right back here and he takes on Carrasco who has been struggling. His most recent start was better at Chicago but he had allowed 5 or more earned runs in 3 of his 4 starts before that. So really you have a unique solid situation because you have Nola who had been pitching well but off a tough start and Carraco who had been struggling but is off a strong start. So extra line value here and Phillies off a tight 2-0 loss at New York yesterday so this is a great play on spot for Philadelphia. The Mets had lost 4 of 6 prior to yesterday's win and is 0-3 this season when off a shutout win. The Phillies are 3-1 this season when off a shutout loss. So this is a combined 86% YTD situation in favor of the road team here. PHILADELPHIA -115

MLB Wednesday OVER 10.5 in Boston Red Sox vs Cincinnati Reds @ 7:10 ET - The Red Sox lost yesterday's series opener to the Reds 9 to 8 and games at Fenway Park continue to trend toward being very high-scoring. 13 of last 16 games there have totaled at least 10 runs and these 16 games have averaged 13 runs apiece. We should see 11 runs at least here as the Red Sox and Reds bullpens rank in the middle of the pack. In terms of hitting, Boston is hitting .298 in home games this season which is #1 in the majors. Cincinnati is hitting .265 in road games this season which is #1 in the National League. As for the pitchers here, Luke Weaver is off a strong start but had allowed at least 4 earned runs in 5 of 6 starts before that! James Paxton has made only 9 starts since the 2019 season because he has multiple injury issues. He is coming off an ugly outing and really has been quite unreliable since his successful campaign in 2019. Paxton is facing a Reds team that has won 4 straight games and 6 of last 8. In the 4 straight wins, the Reds have averaged 8.5 runs and have now scored 8 or more runs in 5 of last 6 games and overall have averaged 7 runs per game last 8 games. OVER 10.5 in Boston

MLB Tuesday OVER 9 in St Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:45 ET - I am going with action on the starting pitchers as usual but we will start there. The Cardinals Miles Mikolas is winless with a 5.86 ERA in his 5 home starts this season. He has been hit at a .336 clip in home starts this year. Zack Greinke expected to get the ball for the Royals in this one and he is 0-3 with a 6.66 ERA in his 5 road starts this season. Historically he has struggled on the road quite often in many of his MLB seasons. Last year he was 0-7 with a 5.32 ERA in his 14 home starts. Over the past two season he is now 0-10 in his 19 road starts and opponents have hit about .300 against him in those outings. The Royals have scored an average of 5 runs per game their last 7 games and will look to build off yesterday's 7-0 win. However, I am sure that the Cardinals will bounce back at home after being shutout and especially facing Greinke and one of the league's worst bullpens. The Cards, before yesterday's home shutout, had seen 9 of their last 12 home games total at least 9 runs. Those dozen games averaged 12.3 runs per game. Look for that type of scoring to resume here. OVER 9 in St Louis

MLB Tuesday OVER 8.5 in Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers @ 6:40 ET - Alex Faedo coming off one of the best starts of his career and he totaled 10 strikeouts in that one which was the first time in his career he ever totaled more than 7 strikeouts. This is giving us some nice value here as the Tigers hurler is a little over-valued in this spot and I like the Rangers to hit him hard. At the same time, we get line value with Martin Perez on the hill for Texas because he has some good overall numbers. One of the keys here is that Perez has a high 4.87 ERA on the road this season and in all his starts this year he has a .294 BAA. He also got hit at a .294 clip in 2021. Looking at his career numbers you also realize that his great 2022 might have been more of a one-off success story than anything else. When you look at his career numbers season by season, Perez has had only two truly solid seasons. He is just one of those guys that has hung around but rarely been strong for a full season. With the way he is struggling on the road this season and the line value we have here, I will not hesitate to step in. Note that the Tigers bullpen BAA is 12th in the AL and the Rangers bullpen ERA is 12th in the AL. Taking action on pitchers as per usual as both bullpens should give some up here too and I like the value of the 8.5 and I like the fact the Tigers had averaged 5.2 runs scored per game last 10 games before being shutout yesterday. Also, the Rangers have averaged 6.5 runs scored per game last 16 games. Warm weather for this one too! OVER 8.5 in Detroit

MLB Monday OVER 8.5 in Oakland Athletics vs Atlanta Braves @ 8:05 ET - The Athletics are starting Paul Blackburn and the Braves are starting Mike Soroka. Neither one of these guys have pitched in quite some time. No matter the starters here I do like the over as the Athletics continue to give up a lot of runs and are allowing 7 per game on the season. The Braves are coming of an 11-4 slugfest win over the Phillies last night. So the set up is a good one as Atlanta will pile up runs but their pitching is a question mark here. Soroka struggled some in his AAA rehab starts and this is his first start at the MLB level since the 2020 season due to multiple injury issues. Blackburn will be making his 2023 season debut as he has dealt with injuries and he did have some shaky rehab starts in the minors and now faces a dangerous Braves lineup.  Atlanta is off that 11-4 home win and also their last 4 road games have all totaled 11 or more runs. The Braves averaged 7 runs scored per game in those 4 away games. Oakland has lost 19 of 21 games and continues to give up piles of runs. OVER 8.5 in Oakland

MLB Sunday Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 +115 @ Atlanta Braves @ 7:08 ET - This is a rare plus plus situation with a quality team. The Phillies are the defending NL champs but we can get them +1.5 runs +115 here - hence the plus plus - and I will not pass up on the value here. On the surface, based on the pitching match-up, it looks like a mismatch. However, Dylan Covey capable of doing a respectable job here and has looked manageable in recent work. At the same time, let's not forget Spencer Strider has not been as strong of late and he also got rocked when he most recently faced the Phillies in the post-season last year. The Phillies have some confidence from B2B wins so far in this series. Additionally, the Braves have now lost 10 of 16 and 3 of those 6 wins were by just a single run! Also, Atlanta scored an average of only 2.8 runs in those 10 losses! This is too much underdog value with a quality lineup. The Phillies bullpen has also been stepping up of late. More of the same here. PHILADELPHIA +1.5 +115

MLB Sunday OVER 12.5 in Colorado Rockies vs New York Mets @ 3:10 ET - Yesterday's game was a slugfest and today is a day game at hitter-friendly Coors Field and, based on the weather report, the ball should be carrying very well. Gomber has struggled in this ballpark and gets the start for the Rockies here. Megill has been inconsistent and also is known for road struggles and this will be his first ever road start at Coors Field. Note he got hit hard by the Rockies last time he faced them and that was in New York. That said, this match-up will be even tougher for him. Colorado does score quite well at home and the Mets bats came to life yesterday and should pound out a bunch of hits and runs again here. The Rockies bullpen is an area of concern as evidenced by their numbers so far this season and the Colorado starter Gomber likely to get rocked. That has been his norm in home starts and the Mets are feeling it after yesterday's 10-7 win. OVER 12.5 in Colorado

MLB Saturday OVER 9.5 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:15 ET - A pair of starting pitchers that have both been out for awhile. A pair of lineups that have been among the better hitting clubs in the league this season. A hitter-friendly ballpark. A mediocre bullpen and a sub-par bullpen. All these variables point toward an over here. Zach Davies has not been the same pitchers since the 2020 season and has gone 8-17 since then and struggled in his only home start this season. Garrett Whitlock is 0-2 with a 10.00 ERA in his two road starts this season and he was getting hit at a .300 clip at the AAA minor league level as well in his 3 starts there this season. The Diamondbacks lost 7-2 yesterday but scored an average of 5.3 runs in their dozen games prior to that one. Arizona has allowed 5.4 runs per game last 9 games. Boston has been running hot and cold with their offense going in streaks so don't be surprised if yesterday's 7-run outburst gets another streak of big run-scoring going. OVER 9.5 in Arizona

MLB Friday OVER 8.5 in Oakland Athletics vs Houston Astros @ 9:40 ET - There is a reason, of course, this total opened up at an 8 in some spots but is on the move to an 8.5 across the board today on Friday. The fact is we should see plenty of runs here and traditionally I have had good success with situations just like this one. That situation is the fact these two lineups just faced these pitchers and oftentimes that favors the hitters in the very next meeting. Adding to the value is the fact this game is in Oakland. That helps us because Hunter Brown has certainly not been the same pitcher away from Houston over the past month or so. Brown has been roughed up in 3 of 4 road starts and allowed 23 hits in less than 15 innings of work spanning those 3 starts. Don't be surprised if the A's fare much better against him here than they did in Houston last weekend. As for Kaprielian, he had only one 1-2-3 inning in his 5 innings versus the Astros last weekend and he was fortunate to limit the damage. Also, in 2 of his 3 home starts this season he has been roughed up. Kaprielian is likely to struggle with the world champs getting a quick second look at him. Also, the Oakland bullpen has a 6.56 ERA and that is dead last in the majors this season. The A's have blown 10 of 14 save opportunities. The Astros are off B2B shutout losses but this was after scoring an average of 6 runs per game in an 8-game winning streak. Oakland has averaged 4 runs scored in last 6 home games but is allowing 7 runs per game this season! OVER 8.5 in Oakland 

MLB Friday OVER 9 in Kansas City Royals vs Washington Nationals @ 8:10 ET - The Royals Jordan Lyles is 0-8 with a 7.15 ERA this season. The Nationals Patrick Corbin is pitching better of late but still giving up a lot of hits and so he has been fortunate. He is getting hit at a .291 clip this season but escaping jams recently to preserve a decent ERA for the month of May. Keep in mind this is still a guy who entered this season 17-42 the past 3 seasons combined and he is getting hit at about a .300 clip the last 3+ seasons. These two bullpens are also ranked near the bottom of MLB for team ERA so far this season. 7 of last 11 Nats games have totaled at least 9 runs. The Royals have seen 14 of 20 home games total at least 9 runs and have been scoring better at home with an average of 6 runs scored in last 13 games at home. OVER 9 in Kansas City

MLB Thursday Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -110 @ Atlanta Braves @ 7:20 ET - The Phillies are expected to start Aaron Nola and his velocity has ticked up and he has been again looking like vintage Nola of late. He gives the Phillies a big edge over the Braves and a struggling Dylan Dodd. Note that the Braves southpaw was struggling in the minors this season too before the rookie got called up to the big club. Nola has allowed only 34 hits in 47 innings over his last 7 starts and is coming off a 10-strikeout performance in his last start. Dodd, on the other hand, is getting hit at a .364 clip. Even if there is a pitching change, which I am sure would not involve both pitchers, I still like this play. It is a fade Dodd, on Nola combo but also the rivalry situation here and the fact the Phillies have underachieved so far this season but are absolutely good enough to challenge the Braves. So we get some line value here. PHILADELPHIA -110

MLB Wednesday OVER 10.5 in Colorado Rockies vs Miami Marlins @ 8:40 ET - Alcantara is having a rough season for the Marlins as he is 1-5 with a 5.05 ERA this season. While he has pitched better of late, he still has not quite been himself and a trip to Coors Field is unlikely to help him. One of the worst starts of his career happened in his most recent start here and, again, he has not been as sharp as usual this season. This is not the time nor the place to turn things around. Also, the Rockies are sending Karl Kauffmann to the mound and he struggled in his MLB debut but this should not be a complete shock as his minor league numbers have been ugly. Basically, he is getting this chance because that is how pitching-thin the Rockies are. On that note, I like this paly regardless of who the starting pitchers are. The Marlins have 11 hits in each of the first two games but have gone a crazy 2 for 18 with runners in scoring position which has definitely led to a ton of wasted opportunities. I look for the Rockies to continue scoring well at home while Miami finally gets going too and actually gets some clutch hits in this one. The weather, other than some showers possibly dancing around the area, is also ideal for a hitter-friendly evening at a hitter-friendly venue. OVER 10.5 in Colorado

MLB Tuesday Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -150 vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 6:40 ET - The Phillies Matt Strahm flies under the radar more than Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler but this guy can pitch! The Philadelphia southpaw has a 2.73 ERA and is holding hitters to a .188 BAA and this is after he had a 3.83 ERA and a .224 batting average against during his solid season with Boston last year. He should enjoy success here at home against Arizona. The Diamondbacks send Ryne Nelson to the mound for this one and he has a 5.48 ERA and a .296 BAA in his 9 starts this season. He is coming off a strong start but that was at Oakland and the Athletics are the worst team in the majors this season. Prior to that he was allowing an average of 1 earned run per INNING over his last FIVE starts. So Nelson has consistently been struggling. No matter who pitches in this match-up, the Diamondbacks are on a 3-game winning streak and are 1-5 the last 6 times when they have entered a game on a winning streak of 3 or more games! The Phillies are off a 6-3 loss to Dbacks to open up this series but they had won 10 of 14 home games heading into this series and I look for them to bounce right back. PHILADELPHIA -150

MLB Monday OVER 11.5 in Colorado Rockies vs Miami Marlins @ 8:40 ET - The Rockies are expected to start Chase Anderson. I know the veteran hurler was surprisingly solid so far in his limited action but I just can not see that continuing. Also, the weather is favorable for an over tonight. Additionally, the Colorado bullpen has a high BAA and a rather high WHIP so they have been fortunate their ERA is not higher and even with all that they do rank in the lower third of team bullpens and I expect them to drop further as the season goes along. As for the Marlins, Edwin Cabrera is expected to start here and he has struggled badly on the road this season. A start at hitter-friendly Coors Field is certainly unlikely to help matters. Note that 4 of last 6 Rockies games have totaled at least 16 runs and that includes 3 games at Coors Field and 3 games at Texas. The Rockies have scored at least 9 runs in 2 of last 3 home games. The Marlins are 7-4 last 11 games and, other than a 1-0 win, scored an average of 4.5 runs in the other 10 games. Now at hitter friendly Coors Field you can safely add a couple runs to that average and look for Miami to get to the 6 or 7 mark tonight and the Rockies will likely equal them run for run as well. OVER 11.5 in Colorado 

MLB Sunday OVER 8.5 in Houston Astros vs Oakland A's @ 2:10 ET - I am going to take advantage of the low total posted on this one. We get a lower total because Framber Valdez is the starter expected to go for Houston here. The Astros southpaw does have a low ERA this season but he actually has been better on the road than at home! He is 3-0 with a .179 batting average against in his road starts but he is 0-4 with a .279 BAA in home starts! The A's do hit decently against left-handed pitchers and they could surprise here. As for the Oakland pitching, they have struggled this season with yesterday's 3-2 loss being a rare aberration as they almost always give up a lot of runs. I expect Houston to pound the Athletics today as their bullpen ranks as the worst in the league plus the expected starter James Kaprielian is likely to struggle here. He is off a good start versus the Rangers but this was at home and was surprising to say the least. He had been moved to the bullpen plus Kaprielian had allowed at least 5 runs in each of his 3 starts this season before that surprising result versus Texas. Look for the other team from the Lone Star State to quickly return him to reality as the Astros roll big at the plate in this one. The A's are averaging allowing 7 runs per game this season and has scored an average of 4 runs per game in last 9 road games. OVER 8.5 in Houston

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in St Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 7:15 ET - Baseball can be a funny sport. Cardinals scored 16 in winning the first game of this series Thursday and then proceeded to get shutout and manage only 2 hits in yesterday's game! The Dodgers did score 5 runs in that one after scoring 8 in the series opener. I like this one with action on pitchers but I will start there with mentioning that Mikolas has struggled badly in his home starts this season and Syndergaard has been roughed up on the road this season. That sets this one up well as both have not looked like the same pitchers that they used to be. This has been particularly true in terms of Mikolas at home and Syndergaard on the road this season. That said, I like the value here with this total available at a 9. St Louis, prior to being shutout yesterday, had won 9 of 11 games and scored an average of 7.7 runs per game during this stretch! The Dodgers have gone 16-4 since starting the season 13-13. LA has averaged 5.9 runs per game during this stretch. Look for a 6-5 type game in this one given all of the above plus the fact the Los Angeles bullpen has struggled this season and has a higher ERA than usual. 10* OVER 9 in St Louis

MLB Friday Philadelphia Phillies -120 vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies are 11-7 at home this season while the Cubs are 8-13 on the road this season. Ranger Suarez expected to get the start for the Phillies here and his first one of the season (after being on the injured list) did not go so well but that was at hitter friendly Coors Field in Denver. Note his minor league starts in rehab had been strong and he is coming off a solid season. That said, Suarez will be just fine here back at home and making his 2nd start since returning from injury. As for Marcus Stroman, the right-hander has been roughed up a few times in his last five starts and is facing a tough lineup in a tough venue here. The Phillies also have a lot of familiarity with him from his days with the Mets. Now the Cubs righty in the wrong place at the wrong time as the Phillies bounce back from a tough road trip. Chicago is 3-7 against NL East teams so far this season and the Phillies are 8-3 last 11 home games. PHILADELPHIA -120

MLB Wednesday OVER 11.5 in Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds @ 3:10 ET - Yesterday's game was a surprising 3-1 final at Coors Field. Of course this is an aberration. Look for things to return to normal Coors Field standards today. Ashcraft was horrible on the road last season. Gomber coming off some good starts of late but that is keeping this total lower than it should be. Yesterday's was 12.5 and this one is 11.5 and I see value here. Gomber has had plenty of struggles in this park. The weather - other than possible showers - actually looks ideal here with warm temperatures and favorable winds. I feel conditions will be ripe for an over here and like the added value after yesterday's unusual result here. Rockies known for hitting well here and Reds had been scoring quite well before yesterday's low-scoring grinder. OVER 11.5 in Colorado

MLB Tuesday OVER 9 in Oakland Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 9:40 ET - The Diamondbacks are hot and can score plenty of runs. Arizona is 11-6 last 17 and their last 14 games had featured 10 of 14 totaling at least 9 runs before their 2-1 win in their series finale with San Francisco Sunday followed by a 5-2 win yesterday. That Monday win saw the Dbacks leave 10 men on base and the teams combined to go just 2 of 11 with runners in scoring position. I know the A's sometime struggle at the plate but they have had their moments in recent games too. I will go with action on the pitchers here because the Athletics league-worst bullpen is a key to this play, not just the starters. By the way, the Diamondbacks bullpen ERA has them ranked among the worst bullpens in baseball. The starters expected for this one are both southpaws and both the Athletics and the Diamondbacks are in the top 12 out of 30 teams in the league for batting average versus southpaws. Arizona's Tommy Henry is 4-5 with a 5.06 ERA in his career. Oakland's Kyle Muller is 4-8 with a 6.10 ERA in his career. Opponents are hitting .340 against Muller this season. As for Henry, he has struggled in 4 of the 6 road starts he has made in his career and his strikeout numbers are really down this season. Look for plenty of runs here and we saw some 9.5 earlier and the fact this is down to a 9 means even more value. The Athletics have had a few hot hitters at the plate and the Diamondbacks lineup should steamroll the weak A's pitching staff. OVER 9 in Oakland

MLB Monday OVER 9 in Oakland Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 9:40 ET - The Diamondbacks are hot and can score plenty of runs. Arizona is 10-6 last 16 and their last 14 games had featured 10 of 14 totaling at least 9 runs before their 2-1 win in their series finale with San Francisco Sunday. The A's sometimes struggle at the plate but they have had their moments in recent games too. I will go with action on the pitchers because the Athletics league-worst bullpen is a key to this play, not just the starters. That said Rucinski was expected to start yesterday but did not and the A's still allowed 11 runs. He is expected to go tonight so I mention him again below. As for Arizona's Kelly, he is a solid hurler for sure but he allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings in his only career start at Oakland. Also, he has a low ERA on the road this season but actually has a higher batting average against on the road than at home this season. Throughout his career, Kelly has a higher ERA in road outings and I look for the Athletics to score some runs here. As for A's hurler Rucinski, he has struggled in all 3 of his appearances this season and has allowed an opponents batting average of .339 and he is 0-3 with an 8.16 ERA so far this season. Look for plenty of runs here and we saw some 9.5 earlier and the fact this is down to a 9 means even more value. The Athletics have had a few hot hitters at the plate and the Diamondbacks lineup should steamroll the weak A's pitching staff. OVER 9 in Oakland

MLB Sunday OVER 9 in Oakland Athletics vs Texas Rangers @ 4:05 ET - The Rangers are hot and can score plenty of runs. The A's sometimes struggle at the plate but they have had their moments in recent games too. I will go with action on the pitchers because the Athletics league-worst bullpen is a key to this play, not just the starters. That said however, the fact that Heaney is getting the start for the Rangers here should help our cause and the same holds true for Rucinski. So Heaney is winless with a 7.15 ERA in his two starts this month. Also, he did face the A's in Texas last month so the fact they are getting another quick look at Heaney could help here. As for Rucinski, he has struggled in all 3 of his appearances this season and has allowed an opponents batting average of .339 and he is 0-3 with an 8.16 ERA so far this season. Look for plenty of runs here and we saw some 9.5 earlier and the fact this is down to a 9 means even more value. The Athletics have had a few hot hitters at the plate and the Rangers lineup should continue to steamroll the weak A's pitching staff. OVER 9 in Oakland

MLB Saturday Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -145 @ Colorado Rockies @ 8:10 ET - The Phillies are going for 5 straight wins. They recently welcomed Bryce Harper back to the lineup earlier this month. Now they welcome back Ranger Suarez to the mound as he gets the start tonight after completing his rehab assignment in the minors. The point is that both the mood and the level of play is up for the Phillies right now. Things seem to be turning around and they are now back to a .500 record after a slow start this season. As for the Rockies, they have been an oxymoron so far this season - or at least over the last few weeks. I say that because usually - almost without fail - they are better at home than on the road but that has been the reverse now for many weeks. I look for their home field struggles to continue here as the Phillies are the defending NL Champs and are finally starting to play like that again. Suarez is a solid southpaw and Ryan Feltner has been struggling at times for the Rockies. The right-hander gets hit hard and the lefty should shine against the Rockies just like he did when these teams met last season. No matter the pitchers here, we have the better team and the momentum on our side with better lineup and better bullpen too - no matter what the team ERAs show at this early juncture - I am talking about the guys in the pen and what the long-term is with these hurlers. PHILADELPHIA -145

MLB Friday OVER 8.5 in Oakland Athletics vs Texas Rangers @ 9:40 ET - The A's were shutout last night and maybe they were just asleep at the plate after coming back from a trip to the east coast. However, their bats should wake up again tonight. They actually have hit decently against lefties this season while the Rangers have been one of the best teams in the majors against lefties. This is expected to be a battle of southpaws with Waldichuk against Perez. No matter the starting pitchers here (I am going action), I expect the A's season long pitching struggles to continue as they also have the worst bullpen numbers in the majors. As for Waldichuk, he has a 7.25 ERA on the season and opponents are hitting .304 against him. Perez is off a very ugly start at Anaheim against the LA Angels and he does have road struggles from time to time. Athletics will be better at the plate tonight for sure but their pitching woes continue. OVER 8.5 in Oakland

MLB Thursday OVER 8.5 in Oakland A's vs Texas Rangers @ 9:40 ET - Texas off a 4-3 win at Seattle but it never should have been that low-scoring as the Rangers had 13 hits in that game. Oakland off an 11-3 loss at New York as that loss to the Yankees continued a season of misery for the A's. The big problem for the Athletics so far is they can stop no one and have the worst bullpen in baseball. That is why, no matter who they end up naming as their starting pitcher here, I like the over in this one. Also, Texas is expected to start Nathan Eovaldi but that is not critical either. Oakland has been hitting a little better of late and will get some runs here but also should give up piles of runs again. The Athletics allowing 7.6 runs per game so, even though Texas allowing only 4 runs per game this season, this is a great value with the low total here. 14 of last 20 A's games have totaled at least 9 runs. Rangers last 9 games have averaged about a dozen runs apiece. More of the same here. OVER 8.5 in Oakland

MLB Wednesday Philadelphia Phillies -105 vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 4:05 ET - The Phillies are off B2B wins and seem to be back on track and are known for being strong at home. Also, Zach Wheeler is known for being strong at home and has had great success at Citizens Bank Park since coming to Philly. The Phillies have won 7 of 10 home games and Wheeler is off a rare tougher start at home. But, as for Kevin Gausman, his last start was not just rough, he was absolutely destroyed. This was the 2nd time in his last 3 road starts that he has been hit very hard. Note too that now he is facing a Phillies team that is starting to get healthier and has Bryce Harper back in the lineup. Harper, by the way, has excellent career numbers versus Gausman. The Blue Jays, overall, are not the same team when they are away from Toronto and this is a tough match-up for them here. The Jays had lost 11 of last 19 on the road before they ran into a struggling Pirates team and took advantage. Toronto has had a road-heavy schedule so far this season and finally has a long homestand - 10 games - on deck. That may be when they get back on track and I could see them sleepwalking through this afternoon game that wraps up this road trip as they already have their minds on getting back home. Phillies get a dominant home win here as their long-term run at home dating back to late last season and including the playoffs has been great. PHILADELPHIA -105

MLB Tuesday OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees vs Oakland A's @ 7:05 ET - There is a possibility Aaron Judge will be back for the Yankees for this one. Either way I like the over in this match-up. I also like it regarding of starting pitchers because the A's have one of the worst bullpens in the majors based on ERA. Once again, Oakland gave up a bunch of runs yesterday and, with this total dropping from a 9.5 go as low as an 8.5, I feel we have excellent line value here. The Athletics are allowing 7.44 runs per game on the season. They are expected to start Drew Rucinski here and he has a 6.97 ERA and has been getting hit hard again this season and was in spring training as well. The Yankees are expected to start Clarke Schmidt and he is winless in his 7 starts this season and has a 5.83 ERA and, like Rucinski, he is getting at better than a .300 clip by opposing hitters! The Yankees have now scored 7 runs in B2B games and generally do hit better at home. Oakland has been a better hitting team on the road this season and actually ranks 4th in the AL for slugging percentage away from home. OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees 

MLB Monday OVER 8.5 in Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:40 ET - The Royals and White Sox have two of the worst bullpens in MLB so far this season. Also, both clubs have been scoring more runs of late. Also, we get line value here because both Greinke and Cease are big-name pitchers. One of the keys here though is that Greinke, his last start notwithstanding, has struggled quite often this season. Also, Cease is currently struggling when you look at the numbers from his recent starts. Additionally, these are divisional foes and these lineups have quite a few guys with experience against these hurlers. I am going with action on pitchers because of the bullpens and the current trending of these lineups. Note that the Royals have averaged scoring 7 runs in their last 6 games. Before yesterday's 5-1 win over the A's, 5 of last 6 Kansas City games totaled at least 9 runs. The White Sox have won 5 of 7 games and have averaged 7 runs per game during this 7-game stretch. 7 of Chicago's last 10 games have totaled at least 9 runs. This one will too the way I see it. OVER 8.5 in Kansas City

MLB Sunday OVER 9 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals @ 4:10 ET - The Diamondbacks and Nationals combined for 15 runs last night. 14 of last 17 Arizona games have totaled at least 9 runs and I like the fact this total opened up at a 9.5 but dropped to a 9 now in most spots. Note that this match-up features two of the worst bullpens in the NL so far this season based on ERA. Though Washington has not scored all that well this season, they will take advantage of facing Ryne Nelson here. The right-hander has struggled in his last 3 starts with 15 earned runs allowed over 14 innings. Yes, one of the starts was at Coors Field but the young hurler's confidence has taken a little hit for sure and you know that the Nationals bring a little extra confidence to the plate today after scoring 7 last night. The Nats have a pitching concern of their own though here as well. Trevor Williams got destroyed when he pitched in this ballpark in his lone start here last season. Also, Williams enters this start off a strong home start but he got hammered in his most recent road start. Look for plenty of runs here as both bullpens help the cause as well. OVER 9 in Arizona

MLB Saturday OVER 10 in Kansas City Royals vs Oakland Athletics @ 7:10 ET - As I mentioned in yesterday's write-up (ended up a 12-8 winner), Oakland entered this series off a crazy 5 to 3 loss versus Seattle. It was crazy for totals players in the sense that the total was an 8.5 and it was already 5-3 in the top of the 4th and yet not another run was scored and it ended up that way...a 5-3 final. Now the Athletics in this series at KC and it will be favorable weather conditions for an over and also this match-up features two of the worst bullpens in the league. So I am going over here with action on the pitchers again but the expected starters also should help our cause for sure. The Athletics Ken Waldichuk is winless in his 6 starts this season and has a 7.26 ERA. The Royals Brady Singer has allowed 5 or more earned runs in 4 of his last 5 starts! He has an 8.49 ERA this season and Oakland should make him pay as they have been hitting better on the road than at home. The Athletics have averaged scoring 6.3 runs per game last 11 road games! The Athletics have given up an average of nearly 8 runs per game this season though! KC entered this series off a 13-10 loss and then got rocked 12-8 yesterday! Royals have now scored an average of 6 runs per game last 7 games. Problem for KC is just like the Athletics - too many runs allowed - as Royals have allowed about 6 runs per game on the season. This is a big total on this game but absolutely the big number is justified! OVER 10 in Kansas City

MLB Friday OVER 9.5 in Kansas City Royals vs Oakland Athletics @ 8:10 ET - Oakland off a crazy 5 to 3 loss versus Seattle. It was crazy for totals players in the sense that the total was an 8.5 and it was already 5-3 in the top of the 4th and yet not another run was scored and it ended up that way...a 5-3 final. Now the A's are at KC and it will be favorable weather conditions for an over and also this match-up features two of the worst bullpens in the league. So I am going over here with action on the pitchers but the expected starters also should help our cause for sure. The Athletics Kyle Muller has been rocked in both his road starts this season. The Royals Brad Keller has strong numbers this season in a lot of categories but he has had trouble with his command and has 24 walks in 30 innings. Oakland should make him pay as they have been hitting better on the road than at home. The A's have averaged scoring 5.7 runs per game last 10 road games! The Athletics have given up an average of nearly 8 runs per game this season though! KC enters this one off a 13-10 loss yesterday! Royals have now scored an average of 6 runs per game last 6 games. Problem for KC is just like the A's - too many runs allowed - as Royals have allowed about 6 runs per game on the season. OVER 9.5 in Kansas City

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves @ 4:10 ET - Yesterday's game totaled 20 runs. No matter who starts today I am looking for more big hitting in this one. The Braves have averaged 7.5 runs scored in their last 8 games that were not rain-shortened - the other game was a 4-0 win in just 5 innings. The Marlins 7 of last 10 games have totaled at least 9 runs. Miami has scored at least 4 runs in 6 of last 8 games and you know the Braves should get to 4 as well here when you consider the way they have been playing. That said, we should see at least a 5-4 final here. The Marlins have allowed 5.8 runs last 10 games. As for the expected starters here, the Braves Dylan Dodd has very little experience above the AA level of the minors and he got rocked in his most recent MLB outing. Miami's Jesus Luzardo is not as dominant this season and also has regressed over his last 4 starts after he did have a couple strong ones to start the season. So we have nice value here with this over at a manageable total and considering all of the above. 10* OVER 8.5 in Miami

MLB Wednesday OVER 12 in Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 8:40 ET - Good weather for an over in this one. Mild temperatures as high temperatures expected near 80 degrees in Denver today. Kyle Freeland got off to a solid start this season but has struggled in his last 3 starts and also has allowed 7 homers in his last 4 starts. Eric Lauer gets the starts for the Brewers here and he has struggled at home and actually been solid on the road this season but truly doubt that he will find Coors Field to his liking. I like this play with action on the pitchers as I like the fact the teams combined to go just 1 of 12 with runners in scoring position yesterday. That game finished 3-2 and is helping to give us some line value here as it is keeping the line a little low. The reality is that each team has a good shot of getting to 6 runs here and, with a total of 12 posted on this, we would certainly be in good shape if we end with a 7-6 type affair. Prior to yesterday's low-scoring game, 9 of the last 12 games played here had totaled at least 13 runs. More of the same expected here. OVER 12 in Colorado

MLB Tuesday Philadelphia Phillies +140 @ Los Angeles Dodgers @ 10:10 ET - The Phillies and Dodgers bullpens are about equal in team ERA this season but it has been a big surprise how poorly the LA bullpen has been so far this season. The Phillies bullpen was actually down huge early this season but had been coming on very strong of late before yesterday's debacle. That debacle is one of the keys here because Philly actually had the worst loss of anyone yesterday. I like grabbing good teams off embarrassing losses. Lets not forget these are the defending NL champs. Even without Hoskins the Phillies have still been coming on strong. Also, now they get Bryce Harper tonight. He won't be in the field (though likely at first base in the near future) but he will be the DH tonight. This makes the Phillies lineup extra dangerous tonight and they'll be in bounceback mode after last night's 13 to 4 loss. Action on pitchers here but I will mention the expected starters are Matt Strahm and Julio Urias. Strahm has been superb this season with a 2.31 ERA and holding hitters to a .148 batting average. He has struck out 32 in 23 innings. Conversely, Urias has allowed at least 5 earned runs in B2B starts so he enters this one in poor current form. PHILADELPHIA +140

MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 10 in Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:10 ET - The wind will be blowing out for this one. Two big name pitchers on the mound helping to keep this total reasonable. I really like the over a lot in this one as Jose Berrios generally has struggled much more on the road through the years. Also, Corey Kluber has struggled in 2 of his 3 home starts this season. Kluber is off a good road start but this followed allowing 4 or more earned runs in 3 of his first 4 starts this season. Berrios has been hot lately but I can not ignore that he got rocked in each of his first two road starts this season as this has been a pattern for him for a number of years too. These two bullpens are respectable but I am taking action on pitchers. I do not care who the starters are as this is a hitters ballpark with good weather and two solid lineups for this one. Boston is one of the top home hitting teams in MLB. Toronto has the #3 batting average in the AL in road games so far this season. Red Sox have averaged 7 runs scored in last 4 home games and 6.3 runs per game in last 10 games overall - home or away. The Blue Jays have averaged 5.3 runs per game their last 7 games and gone 6-1 during this stretch. Red Sox have won 10 of 16 so they are playing with confidence here as well. Great match-up that sets up well for runs. OVER 10 in Boston

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Oakland A's vs Cincinnati Reds @ 4:05 ET - We lost with this play but will come right back with it today. The A's still have the worst bullpen in baseball. Also, Oakland is allowing 8 runs per game on the season which is unreal. Yesterday the Reds eventually found a way to win but they had a lot of hard hit balls right at guys. That said, the 3-2 final was not indicative of how well the ball was hit and also there were a lot of wasted opportunities. Both teams struggled with guys in scoring position. This one today should make up for it and while all of the above is the most important stuff and I am going action on pitchers as per usual, I will touch on the expected starters here now. Ken Waldichuk had one good start against the Cubs but has allowed 22 earned runs in 20 innings in his other 4 starts. Not good! Speaking of not good, the Reds Nick Lodolo has really hit a wall his past two starts. He had a good start to this season but now has been rocked in B2B outings for 14 earned runs in 9 innings of work. The Reds have a solid batting average versus lefties and the A's have a solid slugging percentage versus lefties. This battle of southpaws sets up to see plenty of scoring! 10* OVER 8 in Oakland

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in Oakland A's vs Cincinnati Reds @ 4:10 ET - The old adage about good pitching beats good hitting tends to be very true. However, what is talked about much less is also very true. That is the fact that bad pitching tends to lead to good hitting no matter the opponent! The fact is the Reds should keep pounding an Oakland team whose starting pitching and relief pitching have both struggled. Also, I look for a surprisingly resurgent A's lineup to keep hitting the ball well too. Yesterday's final was an 11-7 Cincy win. I like this play with action on the pitchers but I will start with them here. Kyle Muller has allowed 16 earned runs in 13 innings over his last 3 starts. Hunter Greene has been solid overall but he is in just his 2nd season and, so far, he has not been as sharp in day starts and this one goes at 1 PM local time in Oakland. He had a 2-7 road record last season and a 5.57 ERA in day games last season. He has had some command issues this season in day game action. Muller has an 8.68 ERA on the season. Cincinnati's bullpen has been surprisingly decent this season but still ranks around the middle of the pack in the majors. As for the A's bullpen, it has been a disaster with a 7.03 ERA. Overall, Oakland is allowing 8 runs per game which is absolutely insane when you think about it! They are heating up at the plate right now though too and have scored an average of 6 runs per game last 5 games. The Reds are allowing 5 runs per game this season. But they have scored 7.5 runs per game last 4 games and should have no trouble with this struggling A's pitching staff. 10* OVER 7.5 in Oakland

MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Oakland A's vs Cincinnati Reds @ 9:40 ET - I like this play with action on the pitchers but I will start with them here. Kyle Muller has allowed 16 earned runs in 13 innings over his last 3 starts. Luis Cessa had his best start of the season at Pittsburgh last week but that still was not a great start. He has struggled overall this season and has a 10.80 ERA on the season. Muller has an 8.68 ERA on the season. Cincinnati's bullpen has been surprisingly decent this season but the A's bullpen has been a disaster with a 6.75 ERA. Overall, Oakland is allowing 8 runs per game which is absolutely insane when you think about it! They are heating up at the plate right now though too and have scored an average of 6 runs per game last 4 games. The Reds are allowing 5 runs per game this season. But they have scored 6.3 runs per game last 3 games and should have no trouble with this struggling A's pitching staff. 10* OVER 8.5 in Oakland

MLB Thursday Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -105 vs Seattle Mariners @ 1:05 ET - Action on pitchers. Phillies are are 7-3 last 10 games after another come-from behind win yesterday as they are now a perfect 4-0 L4 times when off a loss. The Mariners have now lost 4 of last 5 road games and Seattle has lost 5 of 7 overall after the loss yesterday. I know George Kirby is a solid pitcher but this is a tough Phillies lineup and also the Phillies Matt Strahm has been piling up strikeouts. Look for Strahm to keep the Mariners off-balance and note that Seattle is 3-6 in day games while Phillies are 8-6 in day games this season. This game starts at 10 AM on the body clocks of the Mariners as it is a 1 ET game. Phillies get the job done again as their bullpen is finally starting to perform as originally expected - remember the season is early - and I look for the hosts to make it 5 out of last 6 on their home field! PHILADELPHIA -105

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros @ 6:40 ET - Calvin Faucher is really just an opener here but has struggled recently and could help the Astros bats get off to a hot start here. Keep in mind they scored 5 runs on 11 hits yesterday so they should be good to go here. I am not concerned with the pitchers and will take action here because this is essentially a bullpen game for the Rays. As for Astros, whoever is on the mound - starters and relievers - will be facing an angry Rays lineup that got shutout yesterday. That said, I expect the runs to blow in this one. Keep in mind, Tampa Bay entered yesterday's game 20-3 on the year and the 3 times they were held to 2 or less runs in a game this season they responded each time in the next game and actually averaged 8 runs per game in these 3 games. Looking for a big response here from TB. The scheduled starter for Astros is Hunter Brown and he gave up 4 earned runs in less than 5 innings in most recent start. Keep in mind the Rays are averaging 6.5 runs per game in their games this season. The Astros are averaging a solid 5 runs per game this season and are the defending champs and getting use to facing Rays pitching. The fact is that if we get 4 runs from each team we can not lose this play and I like our chances of doing just that tonight. 10* OVER 8.5 in Tampa Bay

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies +105 vs Seattle Mariners @ 6:40 ET - Action on pitchers. The Phillies expected to start Bailey Falter here and the Mariners expected to start Logan Gilbert in this one. However, regardless of starting pitchers I like the Phillies at home as they have won 3 straight games and are building up momentum after a slow start to the season. Spirts are up in Philly as Bryce Harper could return at DH in early May too so things are looking much better since an early season slump and the loss of Rhys Hoskins to season-ending injury right before the season started. In looking at the starting pitchers here, Falter off a strong start and also was strong in his only home start this season. As for Gilbert, he was strong in only 1 of his last 3 starts and in the other 2 he allowed 7 earned runs in 10 innings. The Mariners are below .500 this season and that is even including having played 16 of their 22 games at home this season! They are only 1-3 last 4 road games and this is the furthest east they will have traveled so far this season. The Phillies have won 3 straight and 6 of 8 and will stay hot here! 10* PHILADELPHIA +105

MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in San Francisco Giants vs St Louis Cardinals @ 9:45 ET - This total has dropped from an 8.5 to an 8 and I am going to jump right in on the added value here. Yes, Cobb has a low ERA this season but he has been hit at a .313 clip so he has been fortunate for sure. Yes, the Cardinals have a solid bullpen but the Giants bullpen has struggled and also St Louis could see their pen called upon early as Montgomery has been struggling getting hit hard in last two starts. That said, I am looking for a rather easy over as this one flies over the low total. Wind blowing out at a good clip early in this one too. We should see solid scoring after yesterday's game involving the Giants got to 5-4 by the middle innings but then the total died at that point and so it was a tough push for over players. This one should keep on going with the Cards now in town instead of the Mets. The Cardinals 7 of last 8 games have totaled at least 9 runs and those 8 games have averaged 11 runs per game. The Giants 3 of last 4 games have totaled at least 9 runs and those have averaged 10 runs apiece. More of the same here. 10* OVER 8 in San Francisco

Sunday MLB 10* OVER 9 in San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets @ 7 ET - Wind blowing out again for this one and even though it is the Sunday "night" game on ESPN it starts at 4 PM local time in San Francisco. That means windy weather and cool, but not cold, conditions for this one. That said, note that Megill was 1-4 on the road in his rookie season of 2021, then had a 5.84 ERA on the road last year in 2022. This season he already has been hit harder in his two road starts compared to his home starts. Also, he is facing a hot Giants lineup. But the Mets have been really pounding the ball too as I noted in yesterday's write-up on this same play. Going over again here as the Giants have one of the worst bullpens in baseball and they could be called upon earlier here because Stripling is getting the call in this one as a starter. He has worked out of the pen this season too and is coming off a horrible spring training and a lot of those struggles have carried into his regular season form as well. More of the same here and, no matter who the starting pitchers are (take action), I like the over in this one. 10* OVER 9 in San Francisco

MLB Saturday OVER 8.5 in San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets @ 4:05 ET - I know these pitches are recording a lot of strikeouts but they also have been giving up plenty of hard contact too. That is why Peterson has a high ERA and Webb actually has allowed quite a few long balls. No matter the starting pitchers here I also like the fact this is a day game in San Francisco and the wind will be blowing out. It will still be cool and this is not a hitters park but an 8.5 in this situation and with these conditions and expected starting pitchers is quite solid. The Giants should bounce back after being shutout yesterday. The Mets actually scored 7 in the shutout win yesterday and remain red hot. They have won 11 of 14 games and actually averaged 7 runs per game in the 11 wins! The Giants had scored a respectable average of 4.4 runs per game last 8 games before being shutout yesterday. So SF bounces back but Mets stay hot! I expect each club to get to the 4-run mark so we have excellent value with this total at 8.5 runs. OVER 8.5 in San Francisco

MLB Friday Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -135 vs Colorado Rockies @ 7:05 ET - I know Davis had a surprisingly good first start for the Rockies but I expect a reality check for him here! The fact is he struggled in spring training with too many walks so he started this season in AAA and he also had trouble with too many walks. However, he got called up to the bigs due to injury issues. Now Davis faces a fired up Phillies lineup on the road after they surprisingly got shutout by his teammates yesterday. The Rockies are known for struggling on the road and I feel sure lightning will not strike twice here. In other words, after getting shutout by a 5-0 final yesterday, look for the Phillies to respond strong here. They also will have Aaron Nola on the mound. He is known for dominating at home and his stuff should be sharp here. He has a solid k/bb ratio this season and Nola has settled in decently since his first start of the season was an ugly one. I expect his breaking stuff to give the road-adverse Rockies a lot of trouble here and the Phillies pull away as this game goes on. PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -135

MLB Thursday OVER 9.5 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres @ 9:40 ET - Why is this total so big? Exactly! Don't let the big number fool you as this total is even up to a 10 in some spots! The fact is that the over is the paly here. Ryne Nelson is off a strong start versus Miami but it was the first time he faced them. This young starter has faced only 3 teams in his career. The other two were the Dodgers and Padres. The first time he faced each of them he pitched well also. But then he faced the Dodgers a 2nd time and struggled. Then he faced the Padres and 2nd and 3rd time and struggled in each outing. Now he faces them a 4th time! You know what to expect here! San Diego is likely to be all over him. Now the Diamondbacks, however, get to tee off against Michael Wacha. The veteran hurler has struggled in 2 of his 3 starts this season and now faces a Diamondbacks team that has scored at least 5 runs in 4 straight games and averaged 6 runs per game during this stretch. Also, those games were on the road! Note that, at home, the Diamondbacks have scored an average of 7 runs last 6 games. The Padres bullpen has been only mediocre while the Arizona bullpen has struggled. San Diego has not been hitting well but has a history of success against the Diamondbacks including at this venue and including against this pitcher. Slugfest coming to Chase Field tonight. OVER 9.5 in Arizona

MLB Wednesday OVER 9 in New York Yankees - The Angels were up 5-2 in the top of the 5th in yesterday's game. Inexplicably, the game died at that point. Yes, the Yankees pen has been good this season but the Twins pen had not been overly impressive. Then yesterday, they suddenly got the job one. Look for the Yankees bats to bounce back here but I also don't see the Angels slowing down. In terms of the expected starting pitching match-up here, Griffin Canning had a good first start for the Angels but he gave up hard contact in that game too. In other words, he had some good fortune in that outing. Remember he has been away from MLB for quite some time after suffering a stress fracture in his lower back. It will still take him awhile to get back to the form he use to have. As for Jhony Brito, he got rocked in his most recent start and could not even make it out of the first inning. Keep in mind, he is a rookie and his strikeout numbers were way down in the 2nd start compared to the first start. Then in his 3rd - and most recent - start, he did not make it out of the 1st inning. OVER 9 in New York Yankees