NL East Total of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Marlins vs New York Mets @ 7:10 ET - The Mets are hungry to bounce back after getting swept by the division rival Phillies. New York faced some tough starting pitching in that series but now gets a break in facing the Marlins Jordan Yamamoto. Miami is also looking to bounce back after suffering a home shutout at the hands of the Braves yesterday. They will take advantage of facing a Mets bullpen that struggled some in the series at Philadelphia. Certainly that bullpen is likely to be called upon early in this one because starter Robert Gsellman is unlikely to pitch deep into this game. The Mets are expecting around 50 pitches in this one for him after he threw only 33 in his first start. Gsellman was impressive in his short rookie campaign in 2016 but has a 4.83 ERA since then so he has been nothing special and is still trying to get "stretched out" early this season. Yamamoto is struggling with allowing too many homers early this season and last year (his rookie campaign) he was much better on the road in comparison with at home as he compiled a 6.00 ERA in his 8 home starts. Yamamoto has allowed 4 earned runs and 2 home runs in each of his two starts so far this season even though he didn't last more than 4 innings in either one. He is facing a Mets team whose .262 team batting average ranks 2nd in the National League behind only Colorado. Look for the Mets to pound Yamamoto while the Marlins bounce back at the plate at home after being shutout yesterday. 10* OVER the total in Miami

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #921 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Texas Rangers @ 3:10 ET - For those of you that were with me on the over in this match-up yesterday we share in our feelings of disbelief. I have been in this business for multiple decades and that was one of the most frustrating games I have ever watched. Ultimately we fell just short which didn't surprise me because we had so many wasted opportunities inning after inning and I knew this would ultimately cost us. The teams threatened constantly but went a combined 4 for 29 with runners in scoring position. That is not a mistake in my typing...there were indeed 29 at-bats with runners in scoring position and yet the teams failed to cash in time and time again. The teams also combined to hit into 5 double plays in the game. You couldn't script a much more frustrating game for an over player. I was dead wrong when I played the over in this match-up Friday but I was spot on Saturday and the result was just a ridiculous bad beat. It happens. Look for the 3rd time to be the charm. Afternoon game at Coors Field with designated hitter too plus temperatures near 100 degrees and practically no humidity. In this very light air the ball will be carrying like crazy and I look for both these pitchers to get hit hard. I know Kolby Allard has strong numbers for the Rangers this season but that is in very limited action. This is still a guy who has a 5.34 ERA in his MLB career. When he faced Colorado as a member of the Braves two years ago he gave up 3 earned runs in just 1 inning and that start was in Atlanta. Now he faces them at Coors Field and the Rockies get to him early and often in my opinion. As for Colorado starter Jon Gray, he is winless with a 6.41 ERA in his four starts this season. Gray has a 7.08 ERA at home this season and entered this season going 3-5 with a 5.58 ERA in day game outings the past two seasons combined. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #973 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Texas Rangers @ 8:10 ET - I missed badly with this play yesterday but won't hesitate to come right back with it here. Favorable weather for an over expected at Coors Field tonight in Denver and I like this pitching match-up in terms of expecting plenty of runs. I know German Marquez has great numbers this season but he has only made one of his four starts at home. Keep in mind this guy would have even more fantastic numbers if he didn't have to pitch his home games at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Marquez had a 6.26 ERA at home last season and got hit at a .317 clip there. His most recent start was at Seattle and he did allow 5 runs though only 2 were earned. His strikeouts were down in that start too. I feel that is a sign of things to come here for Marquez as he now makes just his 2nd home start of the season. The Rangers counter with Kyle Gibson and I feel strongly that his better years are far behind him. Having spent most of his career in the AL he has never faced the Rockies and they will give him a rude welcome to Coors Field here. Gibson entered this season having had just one solid season out of the past four years in terms of a low ERA. In the other 3 seasons his ERA was a 5.00 combined. He'll struggle here in hitter-friendly Coors Field and both teams bounce back at the plate after last night's unusual pitchers' duel here. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #919 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Texas Rangers @ 8:40 ET - The Rangers Lance Lynn had a strong start against the Rockies to open up this season but that game was in Texas. Now he gives the Colorado sticks another look at him and the game is at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Lynn went a combined 11-17 in road starts the past two seasons and that included having an ERA above 6.00 in outings away from home in 2018. His breaking stuff may not break as well given the weather conditions expected in Denver Friday evening. He'll be opposed by Rockies rookie Ryan Castellani who had a successful 4-inning stint in his MLB debut. Keep in mind that was on the road at Seattle and now he'll battle the much tougher conditions of pitching at Coors Field. First starts for young hurlers at Coors Field tend to not go well. Castellani did pitch well against the Mariners but did give up quite a lot of hard contact. That will lead to more trouble here than it did in the Pacific Northwest. The result should be runs early and often in this one. The Rockies series with the Diamondbacks averaged 18.3 runs per game and that was a 3-game set that wrapped up Wednesday. Look for this weekend set to also be high-scoring. 9 of the Rangers last 13 games have been games that got into a total of double digits in terms of runs scored and, of course, at Coors Field those types of games would translate to about 15 runs. Look for a slugfest here. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 4:30 ET - Kyle Hart is a rookie making his first ever MLB appearance and the Red Sox southpaw will face a Rays team that is suddenly scoring runs aplenty. Tampa Bay is on a 5-game winning streak and averaging 7 runs per 9 innings during this hot streak. They are scoring well and that continues here against a rookie that will prove to be over-matched in his first ever MLB appearance plus has a bad bullpen behind him. Don't be surprised if the Red Sox also do plenty of damage at the plate in this one too. Boston had 5 runs on 12 hits yesterday and now faces Tyler Glasnow. The Tampa Bay right-hander is struggling to round into form this season. Glasnow has a 7.36 ERA in the month of August and has struggled to command his offerings. Too many walks getting him into trouble. That continues here and this one flies over the total at hitter-friendly Fenway Park. 10* OVER the total in Boston

Run Line Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #918 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 runs +110 vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies game was tied at 6 in the top of the 9th last night when with two outs a misplay on an infield pop-up led to a pair of Orioles runs. It was an ugly play and Philadelphia went on to lose to Baltimore in extra innings. Look for payback here for the Phillies as Zach Eflin rates a huge edge over Wade LeBlanc on the mound. Yes I know the Philly bullpen has been struggling this season but they've still got some strong late inning arms and I expect Eflin to work deeper in this game than he did in his first. In Eflin's first start this season he did not allow an earned run in 4 innings and that was against a tough Yankees lineup. His stuff was fantastic and I expect more of the same here. Eflin entered this season having gone 14-8 in home outings the past two seasons. He should get plenty of run support here too. LeBlanc compiled a 5.71 ERA last season and has a 6.91 ERA in his first 3 starts this season. The southpaw is facing a Phillies team that has erupted for 22 runs in its past two games. The money line, as you would expect given all of the above, is pricey on Philly in this one but we get line value by taking the Phillies on the run line and laying the 1.5 runs and that is currently bringing a plus money return! The Phillies have played 12 games so far this season and yesterday was just their 2nd one-run game this season. In other words, the likelihood of them winning this game by just 1 run is slim. 4 of their 5 wins this season have been 2 or more runs. 10* PHILADELPHIA Run Line -1.5 runs +110

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #955 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:05 ET - Jordan Montgomery got rocked by the Phillies in his most recent start. Also, the Yankees southpaw is known for struggling against right-handed bats and he'll see plenty of those in the Braves lineup tonight. As for Atlanta starter Touki Toussaint, he is off a great start versus the Blue Jays but he is known for struggling in road outings. Pitching at Yankee Stadium against the potent Bronx Bombers is no easy task so this is likely to be a particularly rough outing for Toussaint. I know the Atlanta right-hander had his curve working against Toronto in his most recent start but he'll hang a few of those tonight and the Yankees sure know what to do with those! The Yankees .455 slugging percentage is #1 in the American League. The Braves .460 slugging percentage in road games is #1 in the National League (not including Nationals as they just played their first road game of the season). Considering the above factors as well as the fact that a light breeze is expected to be blowing out to left field for this one, and you have all the right ingredients for a slugfest in the Bronx tonight. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees

Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:40 ET - Hot weather expected today in Denver and then a nice south wind helping us out through the evening. I am looking for a high-scoring slugfest at Coors Field on Monday night. The Rockies Jon Gray actually has a tendency to pitch well at home but that hasn't been the case against the Diamondbacks. Versus Arizona in 5 home starts in his career, Gray is winless with a 6.08 ERA. Also Gray has shown a tendency to struggle more against lefties than righties and he'll face plenty of left-handed lumber in the Dbacks lineup tonight. As for Arizona starter he is struggling badly early this season and the last place you want to try to work out your struggles as an MLB pitcher is Coors Field! In this most hitter-friendly venue, look for Ray to get crushed. He is 1-2 with a 9.45 ERA so far this season. Also, the Rockies lineup is absolutely loaded with guys who have crushed Ray. Colorado has seen plenty of Ray since they are divisional rivals and this is his 6th straight season as a full time starter for the Diamondbacks. I know Arizona has not hit well on the road this season but Coors Field is very kind to hitters and they've enjoyed success here against Gray. Also, the Rockies are the #1 home hitting team in the majors with a .293 BAA thus far on the season. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #973 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in LA Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants @ 4:10 ET - The Giants Kevin Gausman went 3-9 with a 5.72 ERA. The hope for him was that a change of scenery would get him going here in San Francisco. However, though he piled up strikeouts in his first two starts he also makes too many mistake pitches. He also faced the Dodgers out of the pen two weeks ago and that won't help him here as it didn't go well and now Los Angeles will be seeing him again in a rather short span of time and plus with the Dodgers off a tight loss yesterday in which they didn't hit well, you can bet their lineup will be dialed in for a much better performance at the plate in this one. Also, it is a day game at Dodger Stadium and the ball does carry better here in day games than night games. Walker Buehler is familiar with that and has struggled more in day games than night games so far in his young career. Also, he's scuffling a bit early this season as he is still trying to round into form. Make no mistake he is ultra talented but his command is a little off and that is why he is giving up too many homers early on. We get a low total because he is on the mound for this one and this has led to good value on the over and so I am raising this one to my highest level. 10* OVER the total in LA Dodgers

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins @ 2:05 ET - Jose Berrios is a respected starter in the majors and with good reason. However, the right-hander has made his mark as a strong pitcher over the last 3 seasons and one thing really stands out in 2 of those 3 campaigns. Berrios is a different pitcher when he is at home compared to on the road. Last season it didn't play out that way but each of the two prior seasons it did with a very strong home/road dichotomy. Couple that with the fact that the Royals have some guys in their lineup whom have hit him quite well and I expect some struggles for Berrios in this one. Kansas City has been swinging the bats well at home recently. Of course the Twins are known for their power at the plate and rookie Royals right-hander Brady Singer makes his first home start here. He has allowed 4 homers in his first 3 starts, all on the road, and now pitches at hitter-friendly Kaufmann Stadium in a day game with the wind blowing out. This one should turn into a slugfest. 8* OVER the total in Kansas City

East Beast Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #909 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles @ 6:05 ET - The Orioles scored 11 runs yesterday and will stay hot at the plate today. The Nationals will surely bounce back at the plate after being embarrassed by that 11-0 home shutout at the hands of Baltimore. Two unproven starters on the mound for this one. The Nationals Austin Voth has only made 11 starts in his MLB career. He is facing an Orioles team that has now scored 7 or more runs in 4 of their last 5 road games. As for Baltimore starter, Thomas Eshelman, he has a 6.18 ERA so far at the MLB level and has only pitched in 11 games (4 starts). Facing the defending World Champs lineup off an embarrassing shutout loss I don't expect this to go well for Eshelman. 8* OVER the total in Washington

Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #908 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Atlanta Braves @ 6:05 ET - As mentioned here in my write-up yesterday (but the game was rained out), the Phillies lineup has been stronger than expected considering the layoff (covid-19) they've endured early this season. Philadelphia should enjoy plenty of success tonight at the plate against the Braves Kyle Wright. Yes, Wright's 2nd start was better than his first but that's not saying much. Wright's first start was very ugly and then in his 2nd start he was fortunate to work out of multiple jams. He is a highly regarded prospect but faces a big challenge with the hitters the Phillies have in their lineup. As for Philadelphia, they start Jake Arrieta here. Since coming to the Phillies from the Cubs in 2018, Arrieta has proven better at home than on the road and also better in evening starts than day games. Of course this is an evening game at Citizens Bank Park and I like the odds of Arrieta, a hard-fighting old-school gamer, to come up big in this key divisional battle for the Phillies. He seemed to get stronger as his start went on in his first outing this season and that was against a Yankees lineup that is arguably the most potent in all of baseball. Arrieta was getting plenty of swings and misses later in his start and really seemed to find good command of "his stuff" in the latter stages. Look for him to carry that momentum right into this start and the Phillies pen has plenty of fresh arms with all the extra time Philly has had off early this season and even so far this week too. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #909 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Cincinnati Reds @ 6:10 ET - Being a contrarian has served me very well through the years and, of course, with these teams both struggling at the plate so far this season this one is contrarian all the way. But when the timing is right, being a contrarian is very rewarding. This looks like one of this spots and I am going over the total of 7.5 runs. Both teams induced 6 walks yesterday and I like seeing that kind of patience at the plate. The Reds start Luis Castillo here and he gave up 5 runs to the Tigers in his most recent start. Most of the damage was done by the bottom third of the Detroit lineup and that is not a good sign for Castillo as the Tigers are not exactly a powerhouse at the plate either. As for the Indians Carlos Carrasco, he gave up 3 homers in his most recent start but was lucky they were all solo bombs. Last season Carrasco went 2-5 with a 7.07 ERA in evening action (14 games, 5 starts). Both teams had base running mistakes and hit into double plays that cost them yesterday as well. Look for a result here that will surprise many and I forecast this game will be over the low total by the middle innings. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland

Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #954 Wednesday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (-) vs Boston Red Sox @ 6:40 ET - The Rays got back on track with a 5-1 win over the Red Sox yesterday. The "home team theme" in Rays games continued as they are 5-1 at home and if you just played the home team in all Tampa Bay games so far this season you are 10-1. I look for this trend to continue Wednesday and will take advantage of the big downward line move on this one. The line went from as high as nearly 180 to now as low as nearly 130 as of early Wednesday morning. I am aware of Margot being put on the bereavement list for the Rays but he wasn't hitting anyway. Also, Tampa got Meadows back just yesterday and he responded with a huge game for them. Things are looking up for TB right now while the slumping Red Sox have lost 4 straight games. Boston's Martin Perez hates Tropicana Field. In 5 appearances there, including 4 starts, he is 1-3 with an 8.39 ERA. As for the Rays Ryan Yarbrough, he is off to a fantastic start this season with a 1.54 ERA and with going at least 5 innings in each start. Also, the Rays have one of the best bullpens in baseball behind him. It all should lead to another home win here. I don't often lay prices but this one offers tremendous line value given the situation as well as the line move. 10* TAMPA BAY

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #951 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs New York Mets @ 6:05 ET - If you had the over in this match-up sorry for your bad beat. If you had the under count your lucky stars. The game was 5-3 at the midway point but ended that way. Both teams had 10 hits but the Mets scored just 3 runs courtesy of going 1 for 6 with runners in scoring position and stranding 10 men on base. I know the Nationals Max Scherzer is off a dominating start and is piling up the strikeouts this season but he did allow 4 earned runs in his first regular season start. Also, Scherzer allowed a pair of 3-run bombs to the Phillies in an exhibition game in his start that preceded his start against the Yankees. The Mets are familiar with him and get some runs in this one. The key to the value is we get a low total to work with even though Rick Porcello is on the mound for the Mets. Some are surprised that Porcello hasn't been getting it done on the mound but this is a guy whom had a 5.52 ERA in his 32 starts last season. His better years (2016 was fantastic) are well behind him. Porcello was getting hit hard in spring training back in March and then got hit hard in summer camp too so it comes as no surprise that he is struggling right out of the gate in the 2020 season. More of the same here. 8* OVER the total in Washington

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #921 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants @ 8:40 ET - Being a contrarian is a key to long-term success in this industry. The odds makers are pretty sharp so when you see a line move dramatically from an opener it pays to pay attention. This is one of those cases where everything lines up and I love fading the line move. This total opened up at a 13 and has moved all the way down to an 11.5 in morning trading activity. Of course that is because German Marquez has had two great starts to open up the season and the fact is that he is a very good pitcher for sure. But he pitches his home games at Coors Field! Lets not forget that! His first two starts were on the road. Last season at home he got hit at a .317 clip and had a 6.26 ERA. The prior season Marquez had a 4.74 ERA and got hit at a .284 clip. In other words, it is no fluke as his numbers each of the past two seasons reflect the strong home/road dichotomy that so many Rockies pitchers have. Making things now even tougher on pitchers at Coors Field is that they have to also face a designated hitter now instead of a pitcher at the plate. Now lets talk about Giants starter Kevin Gausman. The veteran right-hander is off a 3-9 season that saw him compile a 5.72 ERA. In his first two appearances as a Giant (one start) he has been rocked at a .343 clip by opposing hitters. Now he'll get to enjoy Coors Field on top of all this! In other words, this one likely to get ugly in a hurry as both lineups enjoy big days! 10* OVER the total in Colorado 

Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #959 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 8:10 ET - I know the Pirates haven't been hitting the ball very well and are having a rough start to the season but I look for them to do some damage against Lewis Thorpe. The Twins southpaw has been solid in two outings out of the bullpen this season but now makes a rare start. Thorpe pitched in 12 games last season (2 starts) and compiled a 6.18 ERA plus was hit at a .336 clip. You can see why I am expecting the Pirates bats to make some noise here. Certainly we should also see the Twins sticks make a lot of noise too. They are coming off a low-scoring series but that came against a pitching-heavy lineup-weak Indians team. Now Minnesota, loaded with right-handed power, will take advantage of facing Bucs southpaw Derek Holland. The Pittsburgh lefty pitched with two teams last season and logged 51 games (8 starts) and ended up 2-5 with a 6.08 ERA. Facing a powerful AL lineup won't help matters for Holland. Keep in mind his last season in the American League was in 2017 with the White Sox and he went 7-14 with a 6.20 ERA. Look for both starters to get rocked here and I expect the confidence of each lineup to, as a result, grow as this game goes on and the pens will end up getting pounded too as a result. The bats come to life based on the pitching match-up at Target Field for this one. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota

Sunshine Smash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #919 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres @ 3:10 ET - Huge total posted on this game and, keep in mind, the first game of the series was fortunate to go over the total as it took some 9th inning magic to send it flying over. However, even with all that said, I like the over a ton in this match-up Sunday. This will be the first day game played at Coors Field with a designated hitter. It is expected to be a warm afternoon in Denver and the ball carries particularly well here in day games. The Rockies starter is Antonio Senzatela and he had a 5.15 ERA in home games in 2017, got hit at a .316 clip in home games in 2018, and had a 9.27 ERA in day games in 2019. Even though the Padres were held to just 1 run in last night's loss here, they had been swinging the bats well and will bounce right back here. The issue for San Diego this afternoon will be their own pitching situation. I know Zach Davies had a decent first start this season but that was in a more pitcher-friendly environment for sure. This will be a tough spot for him Sunday and last season Davies had a 4.81 ERA in day games. In 2018 he had a 4.95 ERA in road games. The Rockies had double digits in hits yesterday but slowed down at the plate after scoring 6 runs in the first 5 innings. Today they will be forced to score throughout the contest because the Padres answer them run for run in this one and the first day game with a DH instead of a pitcher batting for each side will turn into a back and forth slugfest. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #969 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:15 ET - The Red Sox are starting Zack Godley as an opener in this one. I am aware of the fact that he struck out 7 in 4 scoreless innings in his first appearance this season and that the Yankees do tend to strike out a lot. However, I am not sold on Godley after just one outing. This is still a guy whom had a 6.39 ERA in 2016, 4.74 ERA in 2018, and 6.39 ERA in 2019 with the Diamondbacks. That is an NL team and now he is pitcher in the tougher AL and facing the Yankees in the Bronx. I look for him to get tattooed here. Keep in mind, behind him is a Red Sox pitching staff that has helped lead to Boston having one of the highest ERAs in the league so far this season. So the Yankees should score plenty here and I also expect the Red Sox bats to come back to life too after yesterday's 5-1 loss. Boston will take advantage of facing a pitcher who could be struggling a bit with the mental aspect of pitching in this one. Masahiro Tanaka gets the start here and he took a vicious line drive off the head in early July from one of his own teammates as the Yankees were preparing for the season. Also, Tanaka will be facing a Red Sox team that crushed him for 22 earned runs in 8 innings last season. You read that right...22 earned runs...8 innings! Look for a slugfest in the Bronx. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees

Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #919 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres @ 8:10 ET - This will be interesting. For the first time ever that I am aware of, a game at Coors Field will feature a designated hitter. As long-time followers know, games at Coors Field can get nuts due to the thin air in the high altitude and how well the ball carries. Now over players will also have the added benefit of the pitcher NOT batting and that means no more rally-ending situations where a pitcher that is hitting .050 walks up to the plate. For these reasons, games at Coors Field should be crazier than ever as another key comment I want to make is the way pitches break here is different too. It is not an easy park to pitch in and this will be the first time ever pitching here for the Padres Garrett Richards Though he had a successful first start against Arizona to open this season he relied heavily on his breaking pitches. Richards won't be able to have the same command of those pitches in this setting Friday night. Speaking of lacking command, the Rockies Jon Gray was a little "off" with his in his first start this season. That spells trouble here as he faces a Padres lineup "feeling it" after last night's 12-7 10th inning win at San Francisco. The Padres have scored an average of 6 runs per game this season while the Rockies enter this game on a 4-game winning streak and averaged 5 runs per game in those 4 victories and they were all on the road. Colorado should score even better here at home but the surging Padres lineup should answer them run for run as well. The result here is a high-scoring slugfest. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #965 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Indians @ 7:07 ET - This line opened up at a 9 and the whole world jumped on the under as if the odds makers don't know what they're doing. Of course all you have to do is take one look at the glitz and glamour of where I live here in Vegas (shiny hotels, beautiful sportsbooks) to know who usually wins when it comes to making lines! The point is that with this total now an 8.5 and with the over available without even laying juice at that number, it is a great value and I am going with a top play here. The Indians are off a home shutout yesterday. I love taking teams to bounce back in a situation like that and I expect Cleveland's lineup to respond in a big way here. Yes, the Twins Jose Berrios and the Indians Shane Bieber have a certain reputation but lets take a closer look at the specifics here! Berrios faded badly late last season. Just look at his numbers from August and September. In other words, the fact he struggled in his opening start this season may not be such a surprise. Berrios is battling himself a bit and his confidence is down. He also gave up 3 earned runs in each of his last two starts against Cleveland last season and that was when he was still in pretty decent form too. In other words, today's start is likely to go worse than those and yet outings like either of those should be enough for us to see this game go over the total. That's because the Indians Bieber gave up multiple homers in 3 of his last 4 starts against the Twins last season. They got to him for 2 homers in 2 of those games and 3 homers in another game. That said, and with the way Minnesota has been swinging the bats early this season, I am expecting a slugfest to erupt at Target Field on Thursday night. Most won't see this game this way but you have to dig deeper for the nuggets on games and it should pay off for us here with great value on this low total. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota

Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Chicago White Sox @ 6:10 ET - analysis will be posted here by 9 AM ET; please check back then for the full write up on this top play selection; thank you and best of luck, Scott  10* OVER the total in Cleveland

Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Tuesday 10* Top Play Chicago Cubs Money Line (-) @ Cincinnati Reds @ 6:40 ET - On the one hand, it is early in the season. On the other hand, it is a very short season. On the one hand, Cincinnati came into this season with a lot of praise being reaped on them. On the other hand, this is still the Reds we're talking about folks! This team just can't get it together and they dropped to 1-3 on the season after yesterday's 8-7 loss. The fact that Cincinnati did battle back certainly earns a few merit points but when you look at the way the bottom of the 9th played out that is a game the Reds should have managed to finish off and win. Instead, it was a deflating loss and now Tuesday's game has road rout written all over it. The pitching match-up here favors the Cubs in a big way and keep in mind, Chicago has scored 17 runs in its past two games. By comparison, the Reds had just 6 hits in yesterday's game and were held to a combined 6 runs in their two prior games. Those two games were against the lowly Tigers by the way and that is the same Detroit team that just got blasted 14-6 by the equally lowly Royals yesterday. That said, I am truly not impressed by what I am seeing from this Reds team early this season and feel all the momentum is with the road team in this one. Now about that pitching edge. Cincinnati is starting Tyler Mahle because Anthony DeSclafani is out for one start. Mahle has bad overall numbers but has been particularly poor in evening action. The past two seasons his night game efforts have seen him go a combined 4-13 with nearly a 6.00 ERA. Look for Mahle to struggle against the surging Cubs here. As for Chicago starter, Alec Mills, I have liked what I have seen. He is a young hurler with little experience at the MLB level but he really came on strong in his September time with the Cubs last season. Also, Mills last two appearances against the Reds saw him allow just 1 earned run while striking out 6 in 6 innings. Look for Cincinnati's early season struggles to continue here.  10* CHICAGO CUBS Money Line

Game of the Month Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #921 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:10 ET – The Tigers are off back to back wins at Cincinnati and have a little momentum on their side as they enter their home opener Monday. Thunderstorms are expected to move through the Detroit area but, as of Sunday evening, the expectation based on the forecast is that those should push through the area in the afternoon. Though Comerica Park in Detroit is generally known as a pitchers’ park as it is quite spacious, the decent westerly wind expected following the passage of the storm front will also help our cause here. This could lead to some trouble for each pitching staff. That is really the key to this play as I do feel strongly that both lineups are certainly better than what they showed yesterday (Tigers snuck by Reds 3-2 while Royals were slaughtered at Cleveland). The key here is that both teams have used a lot of bullpen over the past 3 days and neither starting pitcher is likely to go deep in this game. The Royals Michael Montgomery had some struggles in summer camp and the Tigers Michael Fullmer is only expected to go three innings at the most in this one as he is returning from multiple injuries and making his first start since 2018. The result is both sub-par bullpens (these were two of the worst teams in the majors for team ERA last season) will be put to the test here. Neither starter will last long and I like both teams to break out the big sticks here as each of these starters struggle early and the bullpens have already been used a lot in their preceding series and the managers have to be mindful of this as well. There are plenty of arms in each pen but managers want to be careful with top arms and Royals have no off days until August 10th and Tigers no off days until August 13th. With the lack of length from starting pitchers so far and the short outings likely from Montgomery and Fullmer here, the result should be plenty of runs early, often, and throughout this contest. Yes these are not the lineups of the Red Sox and Yankees but there are some respectable sticks in each of these lineups. You will see that when they go from facing tougher pitchers (in their first series of the season) and take a step down to the level of pitchers they face in this one! 10* OVER the total in Detroit

Game of the Week Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #973 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oakland Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels @ 4:10 ET – Truth be told the first game of this 4-game series (finale is tomorrow on Monday) never should have gone over the total. That was the extra inning game decided on a grand slam for a 7-3 A’s win. Then Saturday’s game two was a 4-1 Angels win in which, once again, neither team hit the ball all that well. That would make one lean toward the under in this match-up but in typical contrarian fashion I am on the over here. I like this pitching match-up to result in both teams having an early explosion on offense. Los Angeles is starting Shohei Ohtani and it will be his first start since 2018. He is coming back from Tommy John surgery and he struggled quite a bit with command in summer camp. Keep in mind Ohtani was struggling in intrasquad action and now will be pitching on the road against a big rival that is coming off a 4-1 loss yesterday. I expect Ohtani to have all sorts of trouble here as Oakland responds off Saturday’s loss and the pressure is on the young right-hander on the road. The A’s are starting a veteran in Mike Fiers. The Angels have a ton of experience against him and I am looking for their big bats to finally have that “breakout game” I have been expecting to see come alive at some point in this series. Fiers struggled in the final month of last season and seemed a bit “off” in the short summer camp heading into this season too. The long ball has been an issue and in an afternoon game at Oakland with a decent westerly wind expected this could lead to some trouble for the right-hander. I like both teams to break out the big sticks here as each of these starters struggle early and the bullpens have already been used a lot in this series plus there is another game on tap in this series for tomorrow afternoon that the managers have to be mindful of as well. The result should be plenty of runs early, often, and throughout this contest. 10* OVER the total in Oakland

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #912 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 runs vs Miami Marlins @ 4:05 ET – After getting upset by the Marlins Friday night look for the Phillies to bounce right back Saturday afternoon. The Phillies struggled at the plate last night but they have hammered Miami’s Caleb Smith 2 of the 3 times they have faced him in Philly. Smith is a decent lefty but struggles on the road compared to at home and he also is known for struggling with his command at times. This is particularly true on road and that is why Smith has a knack for allowing too many homers away from home.  A combination of too many free passes and missing with pitches in the strike zone will lead to some trouble at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park Saturday afternoon. At the same time the Phillies prized offseason addition, Zack Wheeler, is ready to make a statement. He is riding an emotional high right now as he became a father earlier this week on Monday, is making his regular season debut with this new team here, and this is a guy (former Met) who loves pitching in Philly. Wheeler had a 2.37 ERA in 3 starts in this park last season and in prior seasons’ outings in Philly he has an excellent hits to innings pitched ratio. He’ll shutdown a Marlins team that just happened to catch lightning in a bottle in a 4-run 6th inning yesterday but otherwise was rather quiet at the plate. The Phillies did struggle at the plate and credit is due to Sandy Alcantara for that but Smith will be a different story Saturday as his road struggles continue. Marlins slated to be one of worst teams in baseball again. Phillies came into this season with high hopes and are very talented and have a much better manager this season too. One game (yesterday’s loss) doesn’t change all those factors and the Phillies bounce back at home at a plus money price on the run line. I don’t like laying big prices and the money line is steep (understandably!) on Philly in this one so lets take advantage of the run line value and look for the Phils to win by 2 or more runs. 10* Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 runs

Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:30 ET – Fenway Park is a tough place to pitch. The Orioles were supposed to have John Means going in this one. He can be tough at times. However, now it is Tommy Milone getting the start and he is likely to get crushed. Means is a solid southpaw but Milone went 4-10 with a 4.76 ERA last season. This is nothing new as, in the past 4 seasons combined, Milone has a 9-19 record with a 5.67 ERA. The 31 year old seemed to peak in 2015 and it is has been downhill ever since. Now he faces a potent Red Sox lineup that is known for crushing the ball at home. The issue for Boston this season, however, is pitching! That is no more evident than by looking at whom their opening day starter is…Nathan Eovaldi. He has a 5.62 ERA in his 9 career starts against the Orioles. Also, he has a 4.81 ERA in his career outings at Fenway Park. Last season in 23 appearances (12 starts), Eovaldi compiled a 5.99 ERA! With Eovaldi historically struggling against the Orioles and with the Red Sox being one of the best hitting teams in MLB when they are at home, I look for this game to be a little back and forth early. Then the Red Sox should eventually pull away but it is going to take a lot of runs to do so. With some 9.5 still available as of Thursday night, I am pulling the trigger now and hitting the “go button” on this one for Friday’s action! 10* OVER the total in Boston

Run Line Rout - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #912 Tuesday 10* Top Play Houston Astros Run Line -1.5 runs +125 vs Washington Nationals @ 8:07 ET - In the many years of World Series history there have, of course, been some great stories. I look for this one to be added to that list after Game 6 goes in the books as an Astros victory. It would involve Houston roaring back to win 4 straight after dropping each of the first two games on their home field. It would involve Justin Verlander finally winning an MLB decision in the World Series after beginning his career 0-5 in World Series decisions. It would also involve the home team finally getting a win after the road team won each of the first five games. The reason I am playing the run line here is partially because I simply don't like laying -175 prices on the money line. As long-time followers know, I am very careful when it comes to money management and risk. That said, I like the fact we can get as much as +125 (as of early game day morning) by laying the -1.5 runs with Houston. Another reason I like the run line here is each of the past 4 games have been decided by big multi-run margins. The Astros have been swinging the bats well in recent games while the Nationals have been struggling badly at the plate. The momentum has completely shifted in this series and now the Astros and Verlander finish off the Nationals and Stephen Strasburg. The Astros are 24-5 this season when playing after a day off. Washington is 11-15 this season as an underdog of +125 to +175. Verlander has had fantastic numbers since coming to the Astros from the Tigers. Incredible results in a Houston uniform and, I look for him to win this rematch with Strasburg as Verlander also has been solid overall in his home appearances in this post-season. Momentum and the hotter sticks lead to a big home win in this one. 10* HOUSTON -1.5 runs

NOTE: As long time followers know from past experience, I suggest making money line plays with "action" on the starting pitchers. That said, even though the price is now higher on the Astros with Joe Ross scheduled to get the start instead of Max Scherzer, I had already made my personal bet here in Vegas with action and am suggesting that if you did not do the same (f you made your bet with listed pitchers) that you do make the 7* investment on the Astros here. Ross is no Scherzer and, as shown below, I look for Gerritt Cole to have a great start for Houston and for the Astros bats to continue their resurgence as the Nationals bats continue to struggle at the plate. ORIGINAL write-up: Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #909 Sunday 7* Houston Astros Money Line (-) @ Washington Nationals @ 8:07 ET - The momentum has clearly swung in this series and I am not about to buck the road trend in this spot. The road team is now a perfect 4-0 in this series and the Nationals can't get a clutch hit to save their lives and now face the Astros staff ace. Gerritt Cole came up short in the first game of this series but Washington's Max Scherzer was certainly not stellar in that game either. As a result, I'll take Cole over Scherzer in Game 5 but reduce my play rating to a 7* since the line is in the -150 range. This is a very fair price to lay considering momentum, road trending, and to take Cole to NOT have a second straight poor start. You just don't see that with Cole and I fully expect him to respond large here while the Astros continue their resurgence at the plate. The Nats are suddenly feeling the pressure and squeezing the sticks a bit too tight. 7* HOUSTON

Playoff Total of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #907 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Houston Astros @ 8:07 ET - IMPORTANT: I do NOT care whom the starting pitchers are in this match-up. In other words, if there ends up being a pitching change from the scheduled starters of Jose Urquidy and Patrick Corbin, my recommendation is to re-bet your wager! This play has much more to do with the lineups and the bullpens than anything else which is why the starting pitchers are not so important. First off each of the first two games in this series went over the total and, even though Game 3 did not, Friday's game most certainly should have gone over the total as well. The Nationals went 0 for 10 with runners in scoring position and EACH team left double digits in men on base! The Nats left a dozen on base and the Astros left 10 men on base last night. Both bullpens have had their share of shakiness in this series. As for the scheduled starters here, Urquidy is unlikely to work deep and could struggle as he is making his first start since late September. In other words, Urquidy has not been in the starters role in over 4 weeks. As for Corbin, he has struggled in the post-season as he has a 6.91 ERA and has been used as both a starter and a reliever in these playoffs. The point is that the situation is not stable with either one of these starters and both bullpens had a lot of work last night and both lineups are likely to cash in more opportunities this evening than they did in Game 3. Plenty of runs in Game 4 Saturday with favorable weather also expected in DC for this one. The over is 6-1 in the Nationals last 7 games against AL opponents. The over is 5-2 in Houston's last 7 games against NL East opponents. 10* OVER the total in Washington

Playoff Game of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Friday 10* Top Play Houston Astros Money Line (-) @ Washington Nationals @ 8:05 ET - The Astros Zack Greinke has allowed just 1 earned run on only 15 hits while striking out 26 over the 28 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 4 starts against the Nationals. That equates to a minuscule 0.32 ERA for Greinke against Washington. The Nationals are starting Anibal Sanchez here. He has had some surprising success in this post-season but certainly Sanchez, overall, is not on the level that Greinke has been throughout the majority of his career. Couple that with the fact that the Astros are down 2-0 in this series after having lost both games at home and you are going to see a very focused effort from Houston in this one. The fact it is in an NL park actually favors Houston as Greinke actually swings the bat very well. Overall, the Astros will have the stronger lineup here 1 through 9 than the Nationals will. I also like the fact that Houston has gone 23-5 this season when playing after a day off while Washington actually has a losing record on the season in that situation. I am laying the very fair price here (given the situation) and fully anticipating a road rout as the Astros improve to 45-23 on the season when they are a road favorite of -125 or more. 10* HOUSTON

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #904 Wednesday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals @ 8:07 ET - Both teams swung the bats surprisingly well last night but both these pitchers tonight are fully capable of being in "shutdown mode" this evening. The Nationals Stephen Strasburg not only has a 1.64 ERA with 33 strikeouts and only 1 walk in these playoffs, he also has a minuscule 1.10 ERA in his post-season career! As for Justin Verlander, the Astros right-hander is 42-15 with a 2.45 ERA in his 73 regular season starts since coming to Houston from Detroit. In the post-season he has held hitters to averages of .177, .175, and .205 respectively in 2017, 2018, 2019. In these playoffs he has struggled on the road but he dominated both of his home starts. More of the same expected here and we witness the pitchers duel in Game 2 that had been expected by many in Game 1. These #2 starters for each team easily would be #1 starters on most any other teams in baseball than the ones they are pitching for now. Take advantage as, instead of yesterday's 6.5 runs, we're now working with a total of 7.5 runs in this one. 10* UNDER the total in Houston

Game of the Month Run Line - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #802 Tuesday 10* Top Play Houston Astros Run Line -1.5 runs (+120) vs Washington Nationals @ 8:08 ET - Great line value here in my opinion because the Astros are nearly a 2 to 1 favorite on the money line but yet we can get Houston in the +120 range by laying the 1.5 runs and taking them on the run line. I know Max Scherzer is a solid pitcher but Gerrit Cole has been unbelievably dominant. In other words, this one belongs to Cole an the Astros! Cole went 20-5 with a 2.50 ERA in the regular season and, for an encore, he has gone 3-0 with a 0.40 ERA in the post-season! Again, Scherzer is solid but he is not as dominant as Cole. In the regular season Scherzer went just 6-5 in 17 night game starts. Also, in the month of September, the Nationals right-hander had a 5.16 ERA in his 5 starts. By the way, 9 straight Washington games (and 14 of their past 15) have been decided by a margin of 2 or more runs. In other words, a 1-run game unlikely here. As for the Astros, 13 of their past 14 games have been decided by 2 or more runs. Looking only at Houston's wins, 13 of the Astros past 14 victories have come by a margin of 2 or more runs. The Astros are the most dominant home team in MLB in 2019 and that continues in Game 1 of the Worlds Series. 10* HOUSTON -1.5 runs

Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #924 Saturday 8* Houston Astros Money Line (-) vs New York Yankees @ 8:08 ET - First off it is important to note that I am making this money line bet with ACTION. That means no matter whom gets the start I have action on this bet and that is what I am recommending to all my customers as well. The fact is that this game is projected to be a bullpen game for both teams and, as of 10 AM ET, it has not been determined whom the starters will be. Of course, in a bullpen game, the starting pitchers carry very little importance anyway. I am coming right back with the Astros after they burned me last night. Yes Houston lost 4 to 1 but the Astros left NINE men on base while the Yankees left just ONE man on base all night! It was simply just "one of those nights" and I still feel strongly that the Astros are the better overall team with the more patient hitters at the plate and that they will win this series. That said, laying a very fair price to have the home team here is something I won't hesitate to do. Keep in mind, the Yankees were a solid 46-35 in road games in the regular season but the Astros were a phenomenal 60-21 in home games in the regular season. In particular I like having such a strong home team when off a loss and when they were the team whom had wasted opportunities. 8* HOUSTON

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #921 Friday 8* Houston Astros Money Line (-) @ New York Yankees @ 7:08 ET - While the Yankees may look attractive as a sizable home dog here, I am going contrarian and laying the road favorite price with the Astros in this one. Of course Houston has all the momentum on their side here and they want to close this out tonight and not even have to be concerned with winning Game 6 or 7 on their home field in Houston. The Astros have an edge here with Justin Verlander on the mound as he has made 3 playoff starts against the Yankees since coming to Houston and the veteran right-hander has compiled a 1.19 ERA and piled up 28 strikeouts in those outings. Although James Paxton is certainly a strong hurler in his own right, he is also no Verlander! Additionally, Paxton has been a bit "off" in the post-season and has a 5.14 ERA thus far. I backing the Astros for the close-out here as the Yankees have run into an absolute buzzsaw in this year's ALCS. 8* HOUSTON

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #919 Thursday 8* OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Houston Astros @ 8:08 ET - With Greinke throwing a quality start in Game 1 of this series and Tanaka absolutely dominating in his Game 1 outing, many will be considering the under in this match-up. However, contrary to that opinion the over should get the cash. We have seen an upward move on this total but it is absolutely justified as the wind is expected to be blowing out at a decent clip for this game tonight. I also liked the over coming into this game because I expect both lineups to enjoy more success as they get a quick second look at the hurlers they just struggled against a bit in the first game of this series. Particularly I like the Astros sticks to bounce back after what Tanaka did to them in Game 1. But, as for Greinke, the home run ball was already a problem in the first game of this series and with the weather expected in the Bronx tonight that could be an even bigger issue in Thursday's Game 4 match-up. Keep in mind Greinke also got rocked by the home run ball in his start against the Rays earlier in the post-season. 8* OVER the total in New York Yankees

Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs St Louis Cardinals @ 8:05 ET - Pleasant temperatures and a light southeast breeze and a pitching match-up that should lead to plenty of runs. The Nationals exploded for 8 runs in last night's home win and they should have another big night at the plate tonight against a young hurler whom had some struggles in his first post-season start. The key to the value with tonight's over is that I also expect the Cardinals bats, for the first time in this series, to finally get going. That's because St Louis is facing Patrick Corbin. Though the Nationals southpaw enjoyed success against them at Busch Stadium last month, he gave up 6 earned runs in 5 innings in his lone home start against the Cardinals this season. Also, Corbin has had some post-season struggles this year in his first ever playoff action. Corbin's lone start had strong overall numbers but saw him walk 5 in 6 innings. Then in his 3 bullpen appearances, the Nationals southpaw had one that was just to retire one batter (in this series) and then in the prior series versus the Dodgers he had a solid 1 and 1/3 inning stint but a disastrous 2/3 inning stint. Look for the Cardinals to get to Corbin early and often but note that St Louis starter Dakota Hudson is also likely to struggle here. The young right-hander was quite shaky in his first-ever post-season appearance last week. Also, the Nationals are getting a 3rd look at him this season and just saw him a month ago. The Nats are a very confident team right now as they have won 5 straight games and averaged scoring 5.2 runs per game in the process. In home games, the Nats have averaged 6.4 runs per game their past 13 contests! But, as noted above, I don't see the Cardinals going away quietly in this series and this is an elimination game for them. Against Corbin, the St Louis bats come back to life. 10* OVER the total in Washington

NLCS Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #909 Monday 10* Top Play St Louis Cardinals Money Line (+) @ Washington Nationals @ 7:35 ET - The Cardinals Jack Flaherty is enjoying an incredible stretch. He is 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA in the post-season. He also finished up the 2019 regular season with a phenomenal 2nd half. Flaherty, after the All-Star break, went 7-2 with a 0.91 ERA in 15 starts. The Nationals Stephen Strasburg is certainly also pitching very well of late. Additionally, Strasburg has fantastic post-season history. However, another edge that Flaherty has here is the Nationals lineup has not faced him this season. Conversely, the Cardinals lineup will be seeing Strasburg for the 3rd time this season and that includes just 4 weeks ago in St Louis! With the Cardinals down 0-2 in this series and having their hottest pitcher on the mound and being installed as an underdog here (since they are on the road for this one), the Cards are a strong value play in this spot. 10* ST LOUIS

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #906 Saturday 10* Top Play St Louis Cardinals Money Line (+) vs Washington Nationals @ 4:08 PM ET - Baseball is a crazy sport. On Wednesday the Cardinals score 10 runs in the first inning in their series-clinching win over the Braves. Then on Friday they manage only 1 hit at home in their first game of the NLCS against the Nationals. I love backing a team in a spot like this. Off a shutout loss at home yesterday, the Cards will bounce right back here. Scherzer starts for Washington and he went 0-2 with a 5.27 ERA in his starts against St Louis this season. The Cardinals go with Wainwright here and he was great against the Braves in Game 3 of the NLDS and also had a superb 2.56 ERA at home in the regular season this year! As a home dog off a home shutout loss and with potentially having the pitching edge as well here, the Cards are the play! 10* ST LOUIS

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #902 Thursday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals @ 8:05 ET - Chilly weather in St Louis for this one with temperatures in the 40s and breezy conditions and temperatures falling during the game. With Miles Mikolas having a 3.01 ERA at home this season and a 2.17 ERA at home last season and also having pitched well in this post-season, it is unlikely the Nationals will do much at the plate in this one. At the same time, note that the Cardinals are likely to be shut down by the Washington pitcher in this one. Anibal Sanchez gets the start for the Nationals here and he has a 2.98 ERA in his post-season appearances in his career. Also, last season with the Braves he produced a 2.83 ERA in the regular season. This season he held hitters to a .225 batting average over the final two months of the regular season and Sanchez was fantastic in his post-season appearance against the Dodgers last week. This sets up very well to be a pitchers duel. 10* UNDER the total in St Louis

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #952 Thursday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 7:07 ET - The Astros Gerrit Cole has been absolutely dominating and certainly it is highly unlikely that he is anything but dominant in this outing at home on Thursday. Cole has allowed a TOTAL of only FIVE earned runs in his last SEVEN starts! 4 of his last 5 outings have resulted in an under. As for the Rays Tyler Glasnow, he has had great numbers this season and is capable of working deeper into a game. After a respectable start against the Astros in game one marred only by a 2-run homer he allowed, Glasnow may be even stronger in Game Five after working out the nerves in his first ever post-season appearance! Of course this match-up also involves two of the best bullpens in baseball. I know the total is very low but I just can't foresee either team enjoying much success at the plate in this one. Cole's dominance is off the charts and lets not forget that Glasnow went 6-1 with a 1.78 ERA in his dozen regular season starts while holding the opposition to a paltry .186 batting averaged. 10* UNDER the total in Houston

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Wednesday 10* Top Play St Louis Cardinals Money Line (-) @ Atlanta Braves @ 5 ET - Honestly this line does not make sense and that is precisely why I am backing the Cardinals in this one! Typical contrarian play for me but this is the type of stuff that consistently cashes. Keep in mind, the Braves Mike Foltneywicz had a much better start in Game 2 of this series than the Cardinals Jack Flaherty had in Game 1. Also, Atlanta finished the regular season 19 games over .500 at home on the year. St Louis finished the regular season as as a .500 team in road games. That said, how is it that the Cards are the favorite here? Precisely my friends and that is why I am pounding St Louis in this game. It is where the sharp action is on this game and we're going to be part of that. Keep in mind Flaherty had an 0.91 ERA in his 15 starts after the All Star break. He's fully capable of resuming his domination in this "winner takes all" Game 5. As for the Braves Foltneywicz, he had a 4.54 ERA in the regular season this year and had a 7.50 ERA (with command problems) in his two post-season starts last year. In other words, perhaps the post-season pressure again gets to him here and too many walks are again a problem just like the 2018 playoffs. Either way, I am backing the Cards and Flaherty for the road win in this one! 10* ST LOUIS

Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #909 Tuesday 10* Top Play Houston Astros Run Line (-) @ Tampa Bay Rays @ 7:05 ET - Yes the Astros are in the -135 to -140 range on the run line here but I still see value considering the large pitching mismatch here. The Rays are relying on bullpen arms with Diego Castillo starting as the opener in this one and unlikely to pitch deep. On the other side you have the Astros going with dominating ace Justin Verlander. The Houston right-hander is known for dominating in starts that involve elimination as he is 3-1 with a 1.05 ERA the 4 times he has started in a game that is a "clinch" opportunity for his team. Verlander has dominated the Rays this year to say the least! In two regular season starts and one post-season start, Verlander has held Tampa Bay to just 1 earned run only 8 hits while striking out 21 in 19 and 1/3 innings! Of course in comparing these two teams the Astros also have the much stronger lineup and that is why I am comfortable laying the price here and looking for the road team to win this game by 2 or more runs. 10* HOUSTON -1.5 runs

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #903 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 6:40 ET - Max Scherzer was dominant in 1 inning out of the bullpen in Game 2 but it will be interesting to see if that impacts the Nationals right-hander in his Game 4 start. Keep in mind, Scherzer was not as dominant down the stretch run for Washington. He allowed a pair of homers in each of his final 3 starts of the regular season! Also, the Nats right-hander compiled a 5.96 ERA over his final 4 starts of the regular season. The Dodgers yesterday were hungry to bounce back after the Game 2 loss and they got the job done in a big way in Game 3. Now with a chance to slam the door shut on the Nationals season, I expect them to have another big day at the plate against Scherzer and a sub-par Nationals bullpen that struggled in the regular season. However, the reason I am on the over in this one rather than Los Angeles is because I expect Rich Hill to struggle! He is not 100% healthy right now and he pitched less than 6 innings this month. In that short time he walked 6 and hit two batters. Even though Hill still was impressive in terms of strikeouts and not giving up hits, it is clear that he is not 100%. That said, the Nationals have a very potent lineup that was extra tough at home this season. More of the same on tap here and I'll also take advantage of this total dropping from an 8.5 to an 8 as of early game day morning. 10* OVER the total in Washington

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Monday 8* Houston Astros Money Line (-) @ Tampa Bay Rays @ 1:05 ET - Charlie Morton is a great pitcher but so too is Zack Greinke. Couple that with the fact that the Astros have the much stronger sticks in this match-up and I am looking for Houston to close this series out with victory #3 in very early action Monday. The Astros are an incredible 20-3 this season when playing after a day off. The Rays are 27-36 the past 3 seasons combined when playing with a day off. In that role this season Tampa Bay caused their backers $6,300 at a dime per game. Morton gave up 6 earned runs in 4 innings when he most recently faced Houston. The Astros Greinke struggled some when he most recently faced Tampa Bay but he did register 8 strikeouts in less than 6 innings of work in that game. Greinke jhas a 2.14 ERA in his last 3 starts facing Tampa Bay . The Astros enter this game red hot and, even though they are now on the road note that they have won 12 of 15 away from home. 8* HOUSTON

NOTE: The Nationals are now going with Anibal Sanchez and I am still going with a Top Play in Sunday's Game 3 between the Dodgers and the Nats. Note that Sanchez was strong in May and June but his ERA in the months of July, August, and September hung right around the 4.00 mark.  He has struggled in 2 of his last 4 starts against the Dodgers and LA bounces back at the plate here after Friday's loss.  ORIGINAL analysis: Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #955 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 7:45 ET - Max Scherzer was dominant in 1 inning out of the bullpen in Game 2 but it will be interesting to see if that impacts the Nationals right-hander in his Game 3 start. Keep in mind, Sxherzer was not as dominant down the stretch run for Dallas. He allowed a pair of homers in each of his final 3 starts of the regular season! Also, the Nats right-hander compiled a 5.96 ERA over his final 4 starts of the regular season. The Dodgers will be hungry to bounce back after the Game 2 loss and I expect they will do just that against Scherzer and a sub-par Nationals bullpen that struggled in the regular season. However, the reason I am on the over in this one rather than Los Angeles is because I expect Hyun-Jin Ryu to struggle! On the road this season, Ryu was hit 39 points higher than at home. Also, in night starts Ryu was hit 58 points higher than in day starts. More of the same on tap here and I'll also take advantage of this total dropping from an 8.5 to an 8 as of early game day morning. 10* OVER the total in Washington

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #958 Sunday 10* Top Play St Louis Cardinals Money Line (+) vs Atlanta Braves @ 4:10 ET - The Braves Mike Soroka has great numbers on the season and was particularly dominant on the road this year. However, the Atlanta right-hander was not a dominant (4.00 ERA) in September and also was hit hard in 2 of his last 3 road starts. In those 2 road outings Soroka allowed 15 hits in 11 innings of work. The Cardinals Adam Wainwright certainly has the post-season experience edge here and he went 9-4 with a 2.56 ERA at home this season. In his career playoff appearances at Busch Stadium, Wainwright has a 1.72 ERA and I expect another strong start from here. With the series tied up at 1 game apiece, the home team takes the key edge here in Game 3 of this series. 10* ST LOUIS

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #951 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins @ 5:07 ET - The total may seem a little high but, in typical contrarian fashion, I am fading that perception and going with the over in this one. The teams combined for 14 runs in yesterday's game and now a pair of starting pitchers likely to struggle take to the mound Saturday. The Twins are making a very questionable decision in starting Randy Dobnak in this one. He is a rookie whom only has 5 MLB starts this season. Don't be surprised when the Yankees pound him. As for New York, they start Masahiro Tanaka and he got hit at a .301 clip in the month of July and a .314 clip in the month of September. The fact is that he has struggled often in the 2nd half of the season and I see no reason for expecting that to change here. In fact, Tanaka allowed a .508 slugging percentage against left-handed hitters this season and the Twins are loaded on that side of the plate. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #926 Friday 10* Top Play Houston Astros -1.5 runs -100 vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 2:05 ET - The opportunity to have arguably the best home team in baseball with the best pitcher in baseball at even money is something I won't pass up on. Yes we have to lay 1.5 runs to get it but Houston, with Justin Verlander on the mound, should win this one in a rout. Keep in mind, the Rays Tyler Glasnow missed a lot of this season. While it is true that he has performed well since coming back, the fact is that Glasnow did not see a lot of action and particularly not against a very tough lineup like he will face here. Adding value for the Astros here is they did face him very early this season and they hit .316 against him in that 5-inning start. Note as well that Glasnow did have a strong season on the road this year but that was in limited appearances. That is noteworthy because Glasnow entered this season having gone 3-10 with a 5.85 ERA in road games in his career. Verlander went 2-0 against the Rays this season and he dominated them as Tampa Bay hit just .159 against him in those two outings. Verlander went 8-1 in his 11 day game starts this season. More domination here and, of course, I am not laying a -220 price on the money line but I'll gladly grab the even money price on the Astros run line for this one! 10* HOUSTON -1.5 runs

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs St Louis Cardinals @ 5 ET - Both wild card games remained under the total and, normally, when you think about post-season baseball, it is pitchers duels and unders that likely come to mind. However, Game 1 of this NL playoff series is a contrarian situation. First off the total has risen from an 8 to a 9 but don't let that scare you away. It is with good reason. For one thing, the weather is going to be summer-like in Atlanta today with temperatures in the mid-90s at first pitch. For another thing, both these lineups are loaded with solid hitters. Thirdly, and most important of course, is this starting pitching match-up. The Braves Dallas Keuchel is certainly a "big name" pitcher but he did not impress me down the stretch run. After his very successful July, note that he got hit at a .279 clip in August and a .270 clip in September. Those are not dominating numbers by any stretch of the imagination. As for the Cardinals Miles Mikolas, his 2019 season was not nearly as strong as his 2018 season. Additionally, he is known for struggling on the road. Mikolas went 4-8 away from home this season. In his 17 road starts this season, Mikolas compiled a 5.40 ERA and opponents hit nearly .300 against him. Look for more road struggles here against a potent Braves lineup. At the same time, Keuchel's recent mediocrity continues. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta

Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #914 Wednesday 10* Top Play Oakland A's Money Line (-) vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 8:10 ET - The Rays slugging percentage (.422) ranks them in the bottom 5 of the American League this season. The other teams in the bottom 5 are the Orioles, Angels, Tigers, and Royals. In other words, some pretty bad company to keep! Southpaw Sean Manaea gets the start for the Athletics here and Tampa Bay hasn't seen him since last season. Also, he has been red hot since he returned to the rotation this season. Manaea is 4-0 with a 1.21 ERA in his 5 starts this month and opponents are hitting just .160 against him. The Rays also start a strong hurler here as Charlie Morton get the call. However, his ERA (3.59) is a full run higher on the road compared to at home this season. Also, the Athletics have already faced him twice this season which also helps them. Oakland, as a home favorite of -110 or higher, is 94-45 including 39-18 this season. Tampa Bay finished the season with back to back ugly losses and they are 8-16 this season after a loss by a margin of 4 runs or more. This line opened up in the -150 range and is now in the -130 range and exceptional line value is being offered here with the small price now available on the home favorite. 10* OAKLAND

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #911 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 8:05 ET - No matter whom starts this game I like the over. We have a total of 7.5 and yet the Brewers bullpen had multiple late season collapses when it had a chance to catch the Cardinals for the NL Central title but failed to do so. As for the Nationals bullpen they had a 5.66 ERA in the regular season and that ranks them dead last - #30 out of 30 - on the season. Why are the bullpens so significant here? Neither team is likely to have starters that pitch deep into this game. The Brewers Brandon Woodruff is only recently back from an oblique injury and is likely to only go 2 or 3 innings. The Nationals Max Scherzer compiled a 5.16 ERA in the month of September and was not the same pitcher we saw in the first half of the season since he returned from injury. Now, I also know that in a "win or the season over" game we could see each team use additional starting pitchers here instead of turning to bullpen arms. However, keep in mind those guys are use to being starters not relievers and that is generally not an ideal situation for them to step into. That said, with the potency of each of these lineups, a low total of 7.5 runs, and summer-like weather in DC today, I see great value with the over in this match-up. Over their final 9 games of the season Milwaukee scored an average of 6 runs per game. Over their final 8 games of the season (an 8-0 run for Washington) the Nationals scored an average of 6.8 runs per game. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER the total in Washington

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #975 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers @ 3:10 ET - The White Sox are going with a bullpen game today so really I do not care who starts in this game. That said, this will be a play for me even if there ends up being a change to the starting pitchers. Why? Because the White Sox bullpen isn't great so a bullpen game certainly is not overly appealing for them! As for the Tigers, their bullpen is one of the worst in baseball. That could be an issue here as Spencer Turnbull is the projected starter here and he is 3-16 with a 4.59 ERA this season. He also is 0-10 with a 5.23 ERA in his day game appearances this season! Last season, Turnbull went 0-2 with a 9.64 ERA in day games in his rookie season. Suffice to say Turnbull does not appear to be a "morning person" and we'll take advantage here. As for Ross Detwiler, no sense getting too long-winded about him here as, again, this is a bullpen game for the White Sox but I will say this...the Chicago left-hander is winless with a 9.15 ERA in his 6 day game appearances (3 starts) this season. Detwiler has been hit at a .387 clip in afternoon action this year. More of the same here and, after both games stayed just under the total yesterday, I love coming right back with the over in this match-up. 10* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #955 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds @ 3:05 ET - The Reds are going with Tyler Mahle as Trevor Bauer is out with an illness. Note that Mahle is winless with an unimpressive 4.61 ERA in his 5 career starts against the Pirates. Also, Mahle is 0-8 with a 5.14 ERA in his 14 road starts this season! Trevor Williams gets the start for the Pirates here. Williams is 1-3 with a 7.34 ERA in his 6 day game starts this season and opponents are hitting .309 against him in afternoon action. Keep in mind, Williams entered June with a 3.33 ERA and his ERA is now 5.52 on the season! His season has spiraled downward and both pitchers are simply ready for this season to be over. In their season finale it is highly probable that both get roughed up again one last time before their year goes into the books. Cincinnati has a number of hitters that have given Williams trouble and, as for Mahle, his road struggles continue. 8* OVER the total in Pittsburgh

Game of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #910 Saturday 10* Top Play St Louis Cardinals Run Line -1.5 runs +100 vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:15 ET - The Cubs would love to play the role of spoiler and did a good job of it yesterday with their 8-2 win over the Cardinals. Of course St Louis is already guaranteed of a playoff spot but the Brewers are just 1 game behind them and falling to the Wild Card spot is the last thing the Cardinals want! You can NOT play a team (or at least it is not wise to play a team) just because they need to win. However, when the situation is ideal and, of course the motivation is there, then a "need to win" team can be a great investment. I feel strongly that this is the case on Saturday. The Cards got blasted 8-2 yesterday but should respond big here as they have a huge edge on the mound in this one. The home/road dichotomy relating to these pitchers is significant. Chicago is starting Cole Hamels and he is 4-6 with a 5.40 ERA in road games this season. Opponents have hit .304 against the Cubs left-hander when he is away from Wrigley Field. I know he has great stats against the Cardinals this season but note that Hamels is 1-4 with a 6.39 ERA in his 9 outings since coming off the injured list. The lefty is not in good current form and the Cards take advantage. The Cardinals are starting Adam Wainwright here and he has been fantastic at Busch Stadium this season. Wainwright has gone 9-3 with a 2.08 ERA in his 15 home starts. Opponents are hitting just .236 against him in home outings this year. Prior to yesterday's win the Cubs had lost 9 straight games! In terms of "trusting" the run line here (need STL to win by 2 or more runs), the last 4 Chicago games have been decided by an average margin of 4.8 runs per game. The Cardinals, prior to yesterday's loss, had won 19 of past 25 games (76%) at home! 15 of the 19 wins came by at least 2 runs. We don't even have to lay any juice here to have the heavily favored team here and, for the reasons note above, I am looking for a blowout home win here. 10* ST LOUIS Run Line -1.5 runs

Total of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 8:10 ET - It is one of those "unwritten rules of the game" but the fact is Colorado should field their best lineup tonight. That's because, though their season is over, this game tonight means plenty to the Brewers (and the Cardinals team they are chasing for the NL Central title). That being said, I expect a solid Rockies lineup here and this is a team known for putting up huge numbers at home. The fact that Milwaukee's Zach Davies is getting hit at a .272 clip on the road this season and also has never pitched at Coors Field in his career bodes well for the Colorado sticks here. The issue for the Rockies it their own pitching here. Antonio Senzatela has only had 1 good start since the All Star break. Truly the odds favor him struggling here as he has an 11.54 ERA since July 1st! That is a span of 9 starts and 8 of the 9 have been quite ugly. Behind Senzatela is a Rockies bullpen whose struggles continued yesterday and, as per usual, the Colorado pen has particularly struggled in home games this season. The Brewers pen also has been a little shaky of late (but managed to work out of some dicey situations). Getting out of jams at Coors Field is tougher though and I look for runs early, often, and throughout this contest. I am well aware the the wind is likely to be blowing in this evening at Coors Field. The odds makers were also aware and yet they opened this total at a 14 and it is now down to a 13. Even with a north wind expected this evening in Denver temperatures will be mild, the air is dry, and the ball comes off like a rocket off the bats of the hitters. Fade the market move here and expect a slugfest at Coors Field. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Thursday 10* Top Play Colorado Rockies Money Line (+) @ San Francisco Giants @ 3:45 ET - The Rockies Kyle Freeland does not have good numbers this season but he pitched well in his return from injured list and that was against the Dodgers! Also, Freeland has been better in day games than night games and, like most Rockies pitchers, has been better in road games than home games. Freeland will be opposed by the Giants Tyler Beede in this one. Beede, in afternoon action, has won just 1 of his 6 decisions while compiling a 6.19 ERA in day game action this season. Beede has allowed 7 earned runs in less than 6 innings of work in his two appearances against the Rockies this season. Freeland will be be able to pitch longer than he did against the Dodgers and then, behind him, is a Rockies bullpen that has a decent 4.46 ERA in road games this season (keep in mind their home games skew their overall numbers). Colorado was on a respectable 8-5 run their past 13 games before losing 2-1 yesterday. The Giants, prior to yesterday's tight win, were on a 4-11 run in their past 15 home games. San Francisco has been worse at home than on the road this season and I like the underdog value here in a game where I feel we have the better pitcher on the mound. Look for a bounce back from the Rockies after yesterday's 1-run loss. One final note here is that home field hasn't been in an edge in this series in recent meetings. Prior to yesterday's win for SF, the home team was on a 4-10 run in games between these divisional foes. Look for that run to resume on Thursday. 10* COLORADO

Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #971 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:05 ET - Yesterday's game totaled 22 runs. What you're seeing in this match-up is a pair of teams that are both very relaxed at the plate and are enjoying a very hitter-friendly environment at Globe Life Park in Arlington. It is still summer weather right now in Texas and this ballpark is known for being kind to the hitters especially when weather conditions are like this with high temperatures topping out near 100 degrees today. Of course no playoff pressure on either team so the hitters are very loose and relaxed at the plate. We should see another slugfest today. The Rangers, when at home, are a top 5 team in the majors for runs per game. The Red Sox, when on the road, are a top 5 team in the majors for runs scored. Additionally, this starting pitching match-up features two hurlers whom are likely to get rocked. Boston goes with Rick Porcello. The veteran right-hander is struggling again for the 3rd month out of the last 4. He had a respectable August but Porcello has been rocked hard in June, July, and now September as well. His ERA for those 3 months are 6.46, 7.94, and 6.63, respectively. As for the Rangers Kolby Allard, the young southpaw is finding out just how tough it is when you pitch for a team that has a hitter-friendly home park. Allard has been strong on the road this season but, in his 3 home starts he has a 7.36 ERA and opponents are hitting .333 against him. Keep in mind, Allard also got crushed in 3 appearances (1 start) for the Braves last season. Look for the slugging we saw in yesterday's game to carry over right into today's game as both bullpens got a little roughed up yesterday too and each could be called upon far too early in this one given the above. 10* OVER the total in Texas

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #951 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Arizona Diamondbacks vs St Louis Cardinals @ 3:40 ET - After last night's marathon game that went 19 innings, many will be looking to the under here. I have a contrarian viewpoint on this one. I like the fact that both teams used a ton of bullpen arms last night. I like the fact that the Cardinals still need to win to lock up the NL Central Division and that St Louis is going to have to use their bats if they want to get a W here Wednesday. Why is that? It is because Michael Wacha is on the mound. The Cards right-hander is 4-6 with a 5.17 ERA in road games this season. Also, Wacha is 1-1 with a 5.44 ERA in his 10 day game starts this season. As for the Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly, I am well aware of his current hot streak on the mound but am also aware of the opponents he faced during this hot run. Now the rookie right-hander faces a Cardinals team that got to him for 4 runs in 5 innings in his only appearance against them earlier this season. Kelly walked 3 and gave up 5 hits in the short start at St Louis earlier this season. After all the goose-eggs put on the scoreboard throughout last night's game, don't be surprised when this afternoon's game plays out much differently. Prior to yesterday's low-scoring battle, the over was 4-2 in the Cardinals past 6 road games and the over was 5-1-1 in the Diamondbacks last 7 games. 8* OVER the total in Arizona

NOTE: This is still a play for me although Thomas Pannone is now the starter for the Blue Jays. The Toronto southpaw has pitched well out of the bullpen but struggled as a starter this season. In his his 6 starts this season, Pannone is 0-4 with a 10.65 ERA. Here is the ORIGINAL write-up: Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #919 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:05 ET - Last night's game saw 20 runs scored and went 15 innings. These two bullpens are a bit "tapped out" after that lengthy slugfest in the series opener. That said, I like the over in this match-up as there is a decent chance each of these starters gets knocked out early. Dylan Bundy has enjoyed some recent success against the Blue Jays but only one of those starts was at Toronto. Prior to that successful start at Rogers Centre this season, note that Bundy allowed 12 earned runs in 9 innings spanning his two starts in Toronto in 2018. Overall, in his last 3 starts north of the border, Bundy has allowed 7 homers and these 3 outings have seen him average just 5 innings per game. Look for the Blue Jays sticks to remain hot at the plate and Toronto will likely need every bit of that offense tonight. That's because Anthony Kay gets the start for the Jays here. The young southpaw enjoyed some surprising success in AAA after coming over from the Mets. However, lets not forget that he had a 6.61 ERA in his 7 starts with New York's AAA affiliate this season. Also, the southpaw has a 5.79 ERA so far in his 3 appearances (2 starts) at the AAA level. There have been ZERO unders in the last 6 meetings between these teams. All 6 of those games have totaled at least 10 runs and the total on this one is currently a 9.5 as of early Tuesday morning. The last 6 meetings have totaled an average of 14.7 runs per game. More of the same here, especially with a pair of fatigued bullpens involved here. Remember too that the Orioles bullpen ERA ranks them dead last among American League bullpens. Both lineups have been swinging the sticks quite well the last two weeks. 10* OVER the total in Toronto

Game of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #904 Tuesday 10* Top Play Cincinnati Reds Money Line (-) vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 6:40 ET - The last couple times Adrian Houser has faced the Reds he has allowed 5 earned runs in just 7 innings of work. Houser gave up 3 homers in those 7 innings against Cincinnati. As for Sonny Gray facing the Brewers, he has compiled a 1.85 ERA in his 4 starts against Milwaukee this season. Houser enters this start with a 6.75 ERA over his last 3 starts. Gray enters this start having a phenomenal season and in top current form. Gray is 8-2 in his 15 home starts this season and he deserves every bit of that winning record. Gray has a 2.80 ERA overall this season and has held opponents to a .196 batting average on the year! Gray has struck out 199 batters in his 170 innings. It may surprise some to see the Reds as a favorite in this match-up against a Brewers team that needs to win. However, Cincinnati would love to play the role of spoiler here and, with this pitching match-up, it makes perfect sense that Gray and the Reds are favored. The fact the money line has dropped from the 140 range down to the 125 range as of very early Tuesday morning means we're getting even more value with this one. Even as well as the Brewers have played late in the season they still have a losing record in road games this season. Cincinnati actually is 4 games over .500 at home this season. The bullpens rate nearly equal. That said, the line value is with the home team Reds with their ace, Gray, on the mound. 10* CINCINNATI

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #959 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:10 ET - Blake Snell has great numbers for the Rays but is still limited with his pitch count as he returns from injury. He is unlikely to work more than 3 or 4 innings here and the Red Sox lineup is very familiar with, and has enjoyed some solid success against, the Tampa Bay bullpen. Boston's issue here is going to be their own pitching. Jhoulys Chacin gets the start and he is winless with a 6.75 ERA in his 7 games (6 starts) since the All Star break. Also, the Red Sox right-hander has struggled on the road all season. In 11 starts he is 1-9 with a 6.85 ERA. Opponents are hitting .304 against Chacin in his road starts. Also, in his two most recent starts coming to the Red Sox from the Brewers, the right-hander has had to exit early due to running into trouble very early in his starts. That is significant because the Red Sox bullpen certainly is not what it once was. This season it has ranked only as an "average" bullpen based on team ERA on the year. In 2017 they were one of the best but they regressed some in 2018, and now this season they have dropped off even a little further. We'll take advantage here. 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay

Run Line Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #951 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line +1.5 runs @ Washington Nationals @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies aren't going to quit until it is officially over in terms of their Wild Card odds. Yes, it would take a minor miracle now for Philadelphia to get there now, but the fact is they are facing the right team to gain traction. They have 5 straight games against Washington now and it is the Nationals that are 6 games ahead of them in the race for 1 of the 2 Wild Card spots. Again, it is a tremendous longshot but until the Phillies are officially eliminated they are not going to stop treating each game like a playoff game. That said, after getting blasted last night at Cleveland 10-1, I look for Philadelphia to respond big here. They have a red hot pitcher on the mound in Zach Eflin (2.23 ERA in his last 6 starts) and they face Patrick Corbin in this one. The Nats left-hander had a gem against the Phillies this season but in his other two starts against Philadelphia he did allowed 3 earned runs in 6 innings in each of those outings. The total on this game is only 9 runs and, with a pitchers duel expected, the Phillies getting at least their typical 3 runs off Corbin would go a long way toward cashing this ticket. I am grabbing the Phillies at +1.5 runs on the run line in this one. If they lose a 1-run ball game we still get the cash and note that Washington's bullpen ERA of 5.87 on the season ranks dead last in the majors. 10* PHILADELPHIA +1.5 runs

Day Game Smash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #953 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets @ 4:10 ET - Both the Reds Anthony DeSclafani and Mets Zach Wheeler come into this game pitching very well. So why the relatively big number posted on a National League match-up with playoff implications (for New York)? Exactly! Don't let the rather big number scare you away here. It is a warm afternoon more like late summer than early fall in Cincinnati. In day games with weather conditions like the ball jumps off bats at Great American Ball Park and that is precisely what I am expecting here. Also, DeSclafani has a 4.78 ERA in his 13 day game starts this season. Wheeler has a 5.05 ERA in his 13 afternoon game starts his season. Both pitchers have performed better at night compared to day game action this season. Also, Wheeler gave up 4 earned runs in 6 innings in his lone start against the Reds this season. As for DeSclafani, lefties have a .485 slugging percentage against him this season and the Mets are loaded on that side of the plate. As for the bullpens, the Reds pen imploded last night and that continued their late season trend. As for the Mets pen, it ranks as one of the worst in the majors and was also a bit shaky again last night. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #951 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Chicago Cubs vs St Louis Cardinals @ 2:20 ET -  The final tally for yesterday's game was ridiculous for those of you (like me) that bet the over in this divisional match-up. Lack of clutch hitting and a ton of wasted opportunities. The Cubs and Cardinals ended up with the teams combining to leave 21 men on base and go 2 for 20 with runners in scoring position! Additionally, the Cubs hit into 4 double plays (one via line drive for good measure). I love coming right back with the over after a game like this and the situation is perfect for it. Of course we have a big number to work with here but it is well-deserved. It will be a mild afternoon at Wrigley Field with the wind blowing out at a strong clip It is one of those games that is simply set up to be absolutely nuts! The Cubs start Jose Quintana and he is struggling with a 7.65 ERA over his last 5 starts. The Cardinals are starting Dakota Hudson and he has been pitching very well of late but now he is in the wrong place at the wrong time as an afternoon game at Wrigley Field with conditions like this will get nuts in a hurry! Hudson has held hitters to a .229 average when he is at home but has allowed opponents to hit .270 on the road. Last season he had a 5.54 ERA in road games. 8* OVER the total in Chicago Cubs

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #921 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:10 ET - This total opened up at a 9 but dropped to an 8.5 which has a lot to do with Charlie Morton's long-term reputation. However, the key word there is long-term because Morton has not been the same pitcher since the All Star break. The last time he faced the Red Sox was in late July and Morton allowed 4 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work. Morton has been far from dominant since mid-July as he has allowed 3 earned runs or more in 7 of his last 11 outings. In 4 of the 7 Morton allowed 4 earned runs or more. As for Red Sox starter Rick Porcello, it has been a forgettable season. The right-hander has a 5.77 ERA in his 30 starts and it is truly amazing that he is 13-12 on the season given those numbers. Porcello is 0-2 in his last two starts against the Rays and has allowed 10 earned runs in less than 12 innings of work spanning those two outings. In his last two starts against American League foes, Porcello has allowed 6 earned runs in each of the two outings even though he lasted only 4 innings in each start. More the same on tap here. The over is 5-1 in the last 6 games between these teams. The over is a perfect 3-0 in Boston's last 3 games. The over is also 3-0 in the Rays last 3 games. After 3 consecutive games versus an interleague opponent, the Red Sox over is 7-2 this season. After allowing 7 runs or more 2 straight games, the Rays over is 7-3 this season. Also, the Boston bullpen has been every shaky lately. 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Friday 8* OVER the total in Chicago Cubs vs St Louis Cardinals @ 2:20 ET - It is hard to trust either starter in this match-up and we should see plenty of runs on a warm afternoon at Wrigley Field. Though the winds will not be strong, what little winds we will see will be out of the southeast which does favor the hitters. Note that Michael Wacha is 4-6 with a 5.35 ERA and opponents hitting nearly .300 against him in his road starts this season. The Cardinals Wacha also has a 5.73 ERA in his 9 day game starts this season and opponents also are hitting nearly .300 against him in his day game starts. As for the Cubs Alec Mills, he has pitched well out of the bullpen in 5 appearances. However, in his two starts this season Mills has been hit a .300 clip and he also has hit 4 batters in just 10 and 1/3 innings of work. He has been shaky in his starts and the red hot Cardinals can take advantage. The Cards have scored an average of 5.5 runs per game their past 8 games. The Cubs have scored an average of 9 runs per game in their past 7 games. 8* OVER the total in Chicago Cubs

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:40 ET - The calendar says we're in the latter half of September, but the weather right now in Minneapolis is more like summer weather by Minnesota standards. I look for both these starting pitchers to get rocked and we've got some value with this total because it has moved down from an opener of 10.5 to now 10 runs as of very early game day morning. With both teams off low-scoring losses yesterday I am not surprised to see this game total currently painted as a 10 across the board. However, this pitching match-up is going to bring the bats quickly back to life for both ball clubs. The Twins Kyle Gibson has a 7.59 ERA in his last 7 appearances (6 starts) and has been getting hit at a .302 clip since the All Star break. Gibson has definitely proven to be on a second half fade this season. As for the Royals Mike Montgomery, his home/road dichotomy is very strong. On the season he has impressive ERA numbers in home appearances but in his 17 road appearances (5 starts) Montgomery is 1-5 with a 7.85 ERA. It is no fluke either as opponents are hitting .375 against the Royals southpaw when he is away from home! It is easy to see why I am expecting runs early and often on a mild evening with light south winds at Target Field Thursday. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #954 Thursday 7* Milwaukee Brewers Money Line (-) vs San Diego Padres @ 4:10 ET - The Brewers will be looking to bounce back off yesterday's tight 2-1 loss. Milwaukee had won 11 of their 12 games prior to that defeat. As for the Padres, they had lost 11 of 15 games - including 6 straight - prior to yesterday's win. San Diego's Joey Lucchesi had a great start versus the Brewers earlier this season but that was at home. The Padres lefty has gone 2-5 with a 6.19 ERA in road games this season! Milwaukee's Jordan Lyles had a great start at San Diego earlier this season when he was with the Pirates. Considering that he is 6-1 with a 2.39 ERA since coming to the Brewers, another strong start is expected here. Lyles has held opponents to a .209 batting average since coming to Milwaukee. The Brewers are in a fierce battle for a playoff spot. While the Padres would like to play the role of spoiler, the fact is that San Diego has scored a total of only 4 runs in the first 3 games of this 4-game series! 7* MILWAUKEE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #951 Thursday 8* Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (+) @ Atlanta Braves @ 12:10 ET - The Philleis are still alive in the Wild Card race as, with yesterday's win coupled with both the Cubs and Brewers losing, they are now just 3 games out and that is with Philadelphia still having a dozen games left. That said, I am not going to pass up on getting the Phillies as a big dog here with staff ace Aaron Nola on the mound. Yes, I know Mike Soroka has great numbers for the Braves this season but Nola's numbers aren't too shabby either and the key here has to do with the match-ups. Nola has made 5 starts against the Braves this season and he has held them to a .231 batting average. Also, he entered this season 7-3 with a 2.09 ERA in his dozen career starts against Atlanta. As for Soroka, he has faced the Phillies twice this season and hasn't made it out of the 5th inning as they have hammered him to the tune of a .395 batting average in those two outings. With the Phillies nearing the +150 range here, this is great underdog value in this one. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Angels @ 6:35 ET - Yesterday's game was 8-0 through 4 innings and ended 8-0. A tough loss for me with the over but I won't hesitate to come right back with the same play today. The Angels lineup, of course, is not what it used to be as they are without Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. However, they are not going to shut down by CC Sabathia. The veteran left-hander has been struggling and pitching very few innings in his recent starts. Sabathia also struggled against the Angels earlier this season. He enters this outing 0-4 with a 7.48 ERA in his 7 starts since the All-Star break. Similarly, the Angels Dillon Peters is also struggling. Peters has struggled in 5 straight starts and has a 7.85 ERA over his last 4 starts. The Yankees sticks will have no trouble here as they stay hot and Peters struggles continue. Also, note that the two key guys missing from the Angels lineup Ohtani (never faced Sabathia) and Trout (just a .182 BAA) shouldn't be viewed as big losses in this match-up. The Angels have other hitters with experience (and success) against Sabathia and, again, his current form is not good at all. After yesterday's game went scoreless after the 4th inning, you'll see no such nonsense today. The Angels bullpen ranks in the lower 3rd of the league and the Yankees bullpen will be asked to do too much as Sabathia has averaged less than 4 innings per start his last 6 starts. 8* OVER the total in New York Yankees

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #903 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs New York Mets @ 3:10 ET - I actually feel bad for Noah Syndergaard because I have a strong feeling what we're about to witness here. He has been asking to pitch to either Rene Rivera or Tomas Nido rather than Wilson Ramos because things have not gone well when his battery-mate is Ramos. However, they still gave him Ramos in his prior start and he struggled as per usual. Now Mets management is finally conceding to Syndergaard and it is expected that Rivera will be between the plate this afternoon. That is the good news for Syndergaard so what is the bad news? This is his first ever appearance at Coors Field, a hitters paradise. It also is an afternoon game and day games here are known for being particularly crazy. The Rockies, whether home or away, or have had only 19 unders in 50 day games this season. Prior to being held to just 1 run yesterday, the Rockies had scored an average of 10 runs per game in their 4 prior games. They'll bounce back here as Syndergaard gets a rude introduction to what it is like pitching at Coors Field. The only true good news for the Mets right-hander here is that he should get plenty of run support. That's because Jeff Hoffman gets the start for the Rockies here. Hoffman entered this season with a 7.43 ERA and .300 BAA in Coors Field appearances the 3 prior years combined. How has this season gone? Similarly as Hoffman has a 7.24 ERA and a .328 BAA! More of the same here. 8* OVER the total in Colorado

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #902 Wednesday 8* St Louis Cardinals Run Line +1.5 runs vs Washington Nationals @ 1:15 ET - The Cardinals will be looking to bounce back off last night's 6-2 loss. St Louis entered Tuesday's action on a long-term 26-11 run. Also 5 of those 11 losses came by just 1 run. That means if you had played the Cardinals at +1.5 runs in their 37 games heading into last night's 2-run loss, you had a record of 31-6 in those games! Considering the Cardinals are off a loss and laying very small juice here on the run line, that is why I am recommending grabbing St Louis at +1.5 runs in this one. The Nationals are getting a lot of respect from the marketplace here but Max Scherzer has a 4.15 ERA in his 6 starts since the All Star break. He has struggled at times as he is still trying to get back in top form following missing time with injury issues. As for the Cardinals Adam Wainwright, he is red hot heading into this start. He is 3-0 with a 0.45 ERA in the month of September. Also, Wainwright is 8-3 with a 2.26 ERA in home games this season and 5-1 with a 1.87 ERA in day games this season. As you can see, the Cardinals have a great shot at the outright upset in this battle between teams with high hopes for the post-season. In a game that is expected to be a pitchers duel (posted total is just 7.5 runs) I like having the extra 1.5 runs should this one end up being a 1-run loss for the home team. 8* ST LOUIS Run Line +1.5 runs

Rickenbach MLB Rotation #959 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs New York Mets @ 8:40 ET - The Rockies Tim Melville is 2-4 with a 7.47 ERA in his 11 MLB appearances (8 starts) and opponents are hitting .311 against him. He has made 5 starts with Colorado this season and, like most pitchers, he is finding out what a nightmare it is to pitch at Coors Field. Melville has a 9.00 ERA in his 3 home starts this season. The Mets are starting Marcus Stroman here. The right-hander had pitched his entire career with the Blue Jays in the American League prior to coming to the Mets and facing National League competition on a regular basis. Perhaps he should have stayed in the AL! Since coming to the NL, Stroman has been hit at a .301 clip! That being said, he is actually fortunate that his ERA is not higher than the 4.50 that he has recorded so far with New York. The Mets right-hander also faces a stiff challenge here because the Rockies continue to pile up runs at home. Colorado has won 4 straight home games and they have scored no less than 9 runs in each game. The Rockies have scored an average of 10 runs per game during this 4-game win streak and should remain red hot here on a mild evening at Coors Field with possibly favorable wind direction as well. The Mets, even with scoring just 4 runs in yesterday's loss, have averaged 7.4 runs per game their past 8 road games. The Mets bullpen has a 5.43 ERA in road games this season. The Rockies bullpen has a 5.88 ERA in home games this season. As you can see, after last night's over was a painful loss for bettors (Game was 7-4 through 4 innings), there are plenty of edge factors that point toward tonight's match-up flying over the total. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Rickenbach MLB Rotation #976 Tuesday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Pirates Money Line (-) vs Seattle Mariners @ 7:05 ET - These two teams are each in the basement of their respective divisions and I like the small home favorite value we're getting here in this inter-league match-up. The Pirates Mitch Keller is a different pitcher when he is at home and he also has deserved much better results overall in his starts as he has been a strikeout pitcher. Also, the Mariners Marco Gonzales is a different pitcher when he is on the road. Note that the Mariners lefty, since the All Star break, has made 6 road starts and NONE of them have gone well. Gonzales has allowed 25 earned runs on 45 hits in 33 innings of work! As for Keller, his numbers at home have been skewed by one bad start out of 4 outings. In the other 3 home starts, Keller has allowed just 3 earned runs in 12 and 2/3 innings. Overall, home and away, Keller has piled up 51 strikeouts in 38 innings! For comparison's sake, note that Gonzales has totaled just 2 strikeouts in the 11 innings spanning his last two road starts. 10* PITTSBURGH

NOTE: Yankees 8* OVER is still a play. The Angels are likely using Noe Ramirez as an opener but Jose Suarez still expected to see bulk of action. MLB Rotation #963 Tuesday 8* OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Angels @ 6:35 ET - Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani are now out for the season so it makes sense that this total got knocked down from a 10 to 9.5 runs. However, the move does not make sense when one considers that Luis Severino is making his first start of 2019 as he returns from injury to his throwing shoulder. Note the Severino made 3 minor league rehab appearances. 1 was in AAA and 2 were in AA post-season action. In these 3 outings combined he allowed 13 hits in less than 8 innings of work. Now Severino goes from most recently facing AA hitters and jumps up two levels to face MLB hitters. No Trout or Ohtani but there is still plenty of pop in the Angels lineup. As for the Yankees hitters, they should absolutely pound the Angels Jose Suarez. He has struggled all season and has been particularly bad under the lights. In night games this season Suarez is 0-4 with an 8.53 ERA in 9 games (8 starts). Look for more of the same here as the over moves to 10-5 in the last 15 games between these teams 8* OVER the total in New York Yankees

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres @ 7:40 ET - Garrett Richards gets the start for the Padres. He is making his long-awaited San Diego debut as he comes back from Tommy John surgery. Richards went 0-1 with a 10.61 ERA in his 5 starts in the minors this season. Now he faces a Brewers team that is riding high. Even without the injured Christian Yelich, Milwaukee continues to pile up runs and win games and I expect them to enjoy success as Richards will struggle to get back into a groove as he makes his first MLB start since July of last year! The Brewers start Zach Davies here and he has faded in the 2nd half of this season. Davies is 2-5 with a 5.14 ERA in his 10 starts since the All Star break. Also, Davies got rocked for 5 earned runs in less than 3 innings of work in his start at San Diego in June. Look for the Padres, extra confidence at the plate after their weekend series at Coors Field, to get to Davies early and often in this one. With that said, and with this total dropping from an early opener of 9.5 down to a 9, I like the value here in a game where I expect plenty of struggles for each starting pitcher. San Diego has scored an average of 6 runs per game their past 6 games. Milwaukee has been shutout once in their past 10 games but in the other 9 games the Brewers scored an average of 6 runs per game. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #911 Monday 8* OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles @ 4:10 ET - John Means has been pitching very well for the Orioles but he has been hit 70 points higher on the road than at home this season. Away from home, Means is 3-5 with a 4.47 ERA and opponents are hitting .272 against him. As for the Tigers Tyler Alexander, he has pitched well when coming out of the bullpen but has struggling mightily as a starter. This season Alexander does have a 6.00 ERA as a reliever but has not been hit at a high batting average. However, at a starter he is 0-3 with a 5.13 ERA and a .313 batting average in his 5 starts. Alexander will struggle against an Orioles team scoring an average of 6 runs per game in the first 3 games of this 4-game series. Also, 7 of Baltimore's last 9 games have seen the teams combine to total 10 or more runs. This game opened up as high as a 10 on the total when lines were first posted but it has dropped to a 9 and I love the value here with the over in this afternoon game at Comerica Park. Yes, the Tigers bats were quiet yesterday but they entered Sunday's action having scored an average of 6 runs per game in their 5 prior games. Also, 5 of the Tigers last 6 games have seen the teams combine to total 10 or more runs. Of course this match-up also features two bad bullpens too. 8* OVER the total in Detroit 

Early Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #953 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves @ 1:35 ET - With their big win yesterday the Braves remain red hot, including at the plate. That said, I don't see the Atlanta sticks slowing down here either. They face Anibal Sanchez in Washington. The Nationals right-hander had a good first start this season against the Braves. However, he has struggled worse and worse in each of his next three starts against Atlanta. The Braves have gotten to Sanchez for 11 earned runs in 16 innings over the past 3 starts. Sanchez has allowed a 2.00 WHIP in his last 2 starts against Atlanta as he has allowed 16 hits and 4 walks in 10 innings. Max Fried gets the start for the Braves here and he is 8-2 on the road this season but with a 4.71 ERA. Also, in his 6 day game outings (5 starts) opponents are hitting .331 against him. The Nationals are seeing him for the 3rd time this season and first time hosting Fried in DC. The Nats did give him trouble in 1 of the 2 starts this season and, based on his road struggles, this is likely to be another ugly outing for Fried here. He has allowed 5 homers in his last 2 road starts. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Washington

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #980 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (+) vs Boston Red Sox @ 1:05 ET - Yes the Red Sox are off back to back wins but this was immediately preceded by a 3-8 stretch. Also, the Phillies have been a strong play when off a loss and they should bounce back here after yesterday's 2-1 loss. Rick Porcello gets the start for Boston and he is having a homer-prone forgettable season. The Red Sox are 3-5 in the last 8 starts made by Porcello. Look for the Phillies to improve to 4-2 in the last 6 home starts made by Jason Vargas. Opponents are hitting .248 against Vargas this season. Opponents are hitting .318 against Porcello in his road outings this year. Also, in day games this season Porcello has a 6.83 ERA. The Phillies are 8-3 the last 11 times they have entered a game off a loss. The Red Sox are 5-11 in their last 16 games against a left-handed starter. Boston is 10-20 in their last 30 games against teams with a winning record. Even inclusive of yesterday's loss, the Phillies are 10-5 in interleague action this season. Bounce back time and payback time at a home dog price. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees @ 3:05 ET - Yesterday's game went 12 innings which used some extra bullpen. The Blue Jays Jacob Waguespack struggled against the Yankees when he faced them earlier this season. The Yankees James Paxton has struggled against the Blue Jays in both his starts against them this season. The Yankees are still motivated here as they are locked in a battle with the Astros for the home field edge in the upcoming playoffs. Toronto is still motivated here too, as they proved last night, because even though they are out of the playoff picture they are hosting a division rival for whom they have great disdain. That said, look for another high-scoring game here and we get good line value since Paxton has good numbers on the season and that is helping to keep this total under the 10 mark (as of very early Saturday morning). The over is 16-5 this season when the Yankees are priced as a road favorite of -175 or more. Look for the over to improve to 3-0 this season in Paxton's starts against Toronto. The Blue Jays over is 2-1 in Waguespack's last 3 starts as he has been roughed to the tune of an 8.74 ERA in his last 3 starts. 10* OVER the total in Toronto

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #953 Thursday 10* Top Play Atlanta Braves Money Line (+) @ Washington Nationals @ 7:05 ET - Certainly I respect the Nationals at home with Max Scherzer on the mound. However, this line is really not giving enough respect to the Braves with Mike Soroka on the mound. Atlanta has proven to be one of the best teams in baseball this season. Soroka, despite losing to Washington in his most recent start, is 11-4 with a 2.67 ERA this season. Scherzer, despite beating Soroka and the Braves in his most recent start, still has averaged only 5 innings per start in his 5 outings since the All Star break. Scherzer is still working his way into top form and full strength as he is recovering from a back injury. Soroka has been nearly unbeatable on the road this season as he is 6-1 with a 1.44 ERA in his 14 road starts. Opponents are hitting only .203 against Soroka when he is away from home. To be able to get one of the best teams in baseball in the +150 price range and coming off a loss and having a quality pitcher on the mound and having the better bullpen in this match-up...this is a situation I simply can not pass up on. The Nationals bullpen has a 5.79 ERA which ranks them dead last on the season. The last 17 times the Braves were off a loss they have gone 12-5. The Nationals are off back to back wins but this followed a 1-5 run! Conversely, the Braves are off a loss but have been one of the hottest teams in the majors for many weeks now. Give me the big dog in this spot. 10* ATLANTA

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #951 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs @ 4:05 ET - The wind is expecting to be blowing out to center when this game first gets started. It is then expected to shift more toward a westerly direction which will have it blowing out toward right field for the remainder of the game. It will be a rather strong wind and is certain to help the hitters in this one. Jon Lester gets the start for the Cubs in this one and he has good numbers against the Pirates this season. However, in a hitter-friendly environment and an afternoon game at Wrigley Field, I look for Lester to get lit up. Keep in mind, after a strong July, Lester has been fading ever since as he has a 6.91 ERA in his last 8 starts. Steven Brault gets the start for the Pirates and one thing I want to mention before getting into his pitching stats is that he is also a threat with his bat. Brault is hitting .314 on the season! Though he is 4-0 in his road starts this season, Brault is getting hit at a .280 clip away from home. Also, the Pirates lefty allowed 4 earned runs in 3 innings in his lone start at Wrigley Field this season. Brault entered this season with a 5.87 ERA in his 7 career outings (2 starts) at Wrigley Field and the Cubs have hit over .300 against him in his career. The over is 12-5-2 in the Pirates last 19 games. The over is 25-11 in Pittsburgh's games against left-handed starters this season. 10* OVER the total in Chicago Cubs

Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #912 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (+) vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:15 ET - Both Julio Teheran and Drew Smyly enter this outing off strong recent starts. The edge the Phillies have, in addition to home field, is that the Braves have very little familiarity with Smyly because his entire career (until coming to Philly) had been spent in the American League. Other than Josh Donaldson, whom Smyly will have to be very careful with, the Braves have only a total of 14 at bats against Smyly! As for Teheran, the Braves right-hander has faced the Phillies plenty of times. Philadelphia has 8 hitters whom all have at least 13 at bats of experience against Teheran. Also, guys like Franco, Harper, Hoskins, Realmuto and Dickerson have enjoyed good success against Teheran. The Phillies are 11-3 the last 14 times they've entered a game off a home loss. Smyly has made 9 starts for the Phillies and they've gone 7-2 in those 9 games. Despite yesterday's loss the Phillies are just 2 games out of the 2nd wild card spot. Also, I mentioned the Phillies response when off a home loss above, there is a tightener to that 11-3 mark also. When Philadelphia is off a home loss in which the Phillies allowed 7 runs or less, they've gone 8-1. That 88% situation is in play here and I look for the Phillies to improve to 8-2 in Smyly's starts as a Phillie. Look for Philly hitters to continue their long-term success against Teheran. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs St Louis Cardinals @ 3:10 ET - The very first numbers that popped up on this one had a 13.5 as the total and it is now down to a 12.5 as of very early Thursday morning. This is not a surprise given the past two games have both been extremely low-scoring but I am taking advantage of the value here. This is an afternoon game at hitter-friendly Coors Field and the air is particularly dry here for this one and the ball is going to be jumping off bats. That said, the key is whether or not we can expect a lot of contact and, with these two pitchers on the mound, I say absolutely! Miles Mikolas is 3-8 with a 5.83 ERA in his road starts this season and teams are hitting .301 against him in his 15 away starts. Tim Melville has pitched in only 10 MLB games (7 starts) in his career but he has a 6.82 ERA and has been hit at over a .300 clip in those outings. That said, it comes at no surprise that he has struggled in his limited action at Coors Field this season too. More of the same expected here. This game will play out nothing like the past two games. The teams combined to go 1 for 17 with runners in scoring position last night and they left 18 men on base. I love coming back with an over after a game like that as it is a situation that has worked out well for me through the years particularly when the pitching match-up is conducive to a slugfest. 10* OVER the total in Colorado 

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Thursday 8* OVER the total in Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 1:10 ET - The Brewers Gio Gonzalez went winless with a 5.87 ERA in his August starts. Though his September ERA is much lower he continues to have trouble with issuing too many walks. The scrappy Marlins (scored 5 runs yesterday) will take advantage. The issue for the Marlins today is that their own starting pitcher has been struggling as well. Caleb Smith takes the mound for this one and like fellow left-hander Gonzalez, August was a tough month. Smith went 1-4 with a 6.39 ERA. He is also winless with a 4.76 ERA in his two starts this month. Smith is 2-4 with a 5.58 ERA in day game starts this season. Take advantage of the low total here as the Brewers (7 runs yesterday) use the Christian Yelich injury as a rallying cry and have another strong performance at the plate in this one. 8* OVER the total in Miami

Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs St Louis Cardinals @ 8:40 ET - After yesterday's very rare pitchers duel at Colorado, look for a normal slugfest at Coors Field tonight. The Rockies are sending Antonio Senzatela to the mound and he has a ridiculous 16.55 ERA in his last 6 starts. Also, he entered this season with a 5.04 ERA in home outings in his first two seasons with the Rockies. This season he has struggled whether home or away as he has an ERA above 7.16 both at and away from Coors Field. The Cardinals will get to him early and often in this one! As for St Louis starter Dakota Hudson, he has been in great current form. One of the few places that can completely take a pitcher out of rhythm however is pitching at Coors Field. Also, he does have a 4.01 ERA on the road this season and Hudson compiled a 5.54 ERA away from home last season. In other words, he has been much stronger at home than on the road thusfar in his career. In his lone appearance in Denver, Hudson allowed 3 earned runs in just a third of an inning. He'll be tested again early in this one and the bats come back to life for both these teams today after yesterday's rare result. Keep in mind, prior to yesterday's loss the Cards had won 23 of their past 30 games and scored an average of 6.5 runs per game in those 23 victories! The Rockies are averaging 6.2 runs per game at home this season and will bounce back at the plate here. Prior to yesterday's truly unusual result, the over was 11-4 in the last 15 meetings between these teams. That normal trending resumes here! 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Rickenbach MLB Rotation #971 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals @ 8:10 ET - These lineups are very familiar with the pitchers they'll be facing tonight in this divisional match-up. Reynaldo Lopez is off a fantastic start in his most recent outing but he had allowed 18 runs (14 earned) in the 17 innings spanning his 4 prior starts. Also, the last time Lopez hosted the Royals he got rocked for 5 earned runs on 12 hits in 5 and 2/3 innings! Kansas City is starting the struggling Glenn Sparkman in this one. The KC right-hander has allowed 15 earned runs in 12 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts. Sparkman hasn't won a game since his first start after the All Star break! Also, on the road this season he is 0-5 with an 8.94 ERA in 12 appearances (9 starts). Sparkman has been hit at a .343 clip in his outings away from home this season. He had a great start the most recent time he faced the White Sox but he struggled in the first two outings including a nightmare in his lone appearance at Guaranteed Rate Field. Additionally, the White Sox bullpen ranks in the middle of the pack and the Royals bullpen ranks among the worst in the majors. 8* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox

Rickenbach MLB Rotation #975 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 7:05 ET - The Dodgers clinched the NL West tonight but there was certainly no huge celebration about that as Los Angeles, of course, has their sights set much higher. LA is going for the #1 record and top positioning for the post-season so there is no resting up until they've achieved that goal. That said, I look for them to pound John Means tonight. Though Means has pitched better of late, much of that had to do with facing weaker foes. Note that, prior to this, Means had a recent 3-game stretch where he faced the Diamondbacks once and Yankees twice an he allowed 13 earned runs in just 10 and 1/3 innings. The Dodgers potent lineup is going to be a tough one for him to handle. As for the Orioles, they should enjoy success against Ross Stripling. He is used only part-time as a starter and is unlikely to go more than 3 or 4 innings here. The Orioles 3 runs yesterday did come off the LA pen and they'll see even more arms out of that pen today most likely since Stripling is the starter. By the way, he has a mediocre 4.01 ERA in night games this season. Yesterday's game came up just short of going over the total but the LA over is a solid 12-3 this season when the Dodgers are a road favorite of -175 or more. The Orioles over is 18-8 this season when they are a home dog in a money line range of +150 to +200. 8* OVER the total in Baltimore

Rickenbach MLB Rotation #903 Tuesday 8* OVER the total in Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 7:10 ET - Elieser Hernandez has been hit hard in back to back starts. Even though those were on the road and the Marlins right-hander has pitched better at home this season, he also got roughed up by Dodgers in one of his most recent home starts. The fact is that Hernandez is struggling here late in the season and, with the Brewers having won 4 straight games and averaged scoring 6.5 runs per game in the process, look for Milwaukee to get to him early and often. The problem for the Brewers tonight will be that Chase Anderson is on the mound so the Marlins should get their fair share of runs too. He gave up 4 runs in just 4 innings against them earlier this season. Also, on the road this year Anderson has been hit at a .301 clip and has a 5.88 ERA. The over is 7-2-1 in the Marlins last 10 games as they have allowed an average of 5.8 runs per game during this stretch. Miami, despite scoring only 3 runs yesterday, did reach double digits in hits for the 4th time in their past 6 games. The teams combined for 22 hits yesterday and 11 runs. Expect a similar result Tuesday. 8* OVER the total in Miami

Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Tuesday 10* Top Play Arizona Diamondbacks Money Line (+) @ New York Mets @ 7:10 ET - The Diamondbacks are off back to back losses after losing 3-1 to Jacob deGrom and the Mets last night. That is noteworthy here as Arizona is 8-3 the last 11 times they've entered a game off back to back losses. Also, the Diamondbacks were on an 11-1 run prior to the back to back losses. Look for Arizona to bounce right back here courtesy of a significant pitching edge here. Their recent numbers, on the surface, don't look that much different but when you dig deeper you find that Zac Gallen truly rates big edges over Zack Wheeler in terms of current form heading into this one. Wheeler has allowed 14 hits and walked 5 in his past two starts so he was very fortunate to allow a total of only 2 earned runs in those 11 innings. In fact Wheeler has nearly as many walks as strikeouts in his last 3 starts combined. Conversely, Gallen is off a 7-inning 1-hit performance and he has struck out 22 while walking just 4 in his last 3 starts. Included in the 3-game stretch was the Dodgers and Brewers and Gallen has allowed a total of just 12 hits in 17 innings. The Diamondbacks are 12-6 this season in games on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 runs. The Mets are on an 88-140 run, including 34-47 this season, when facing a team with a winning record. 10* ARIZONA

Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies Jason Vargas has been crushed by the Braves 3 of the last 5 times he has faced them. That includes this season too when Vargas couldn't even get out of the first inning. Likewise, Atlanta's Max Fried has had issues when facing the Phillies. He has made two starts against Philadelphia this season and has allowed 10 runs (9 earned) in 10 innings of work. The long ball has hurt Fried when facing the Phillies as he has given up 4 homers in those 10 innings. These are two very potent lineups and I look for Philadelphia to respond at home after getting blown out 7-2 last night. However, I don't trust Vargas against this potent Braves lineup and that is why my play here is the over rather than the Phillies as a home dog. Lets not forget the Phillies bullpen has been shaky too this season. Philadelphia's pen ranks in the bottom of the third in the majors based on ERA and the Atlanta bullpen ranks only in the middle of the pack. In other words, look for runs early, often, and throughout this contest. With yesterday's push, the over is now 9-3-1 in the 13 games between these teams this season. Look for today's to "push" too...right over the total that is! Just too many big sticks in both of these lineups and each team has a number of hitters that have given these starting pitchers - and the bullpen arms too - a lot of trouble this season. The over is 14-7 this season when the Braves are a road favorite of -125 or more. The over is 5-2 this season when the Phillies are a home underdog of +125 or more. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia 

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #961 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees @ 7:10 ET - 15 runs were scored in yesterday's game and I fully expect another wild one on Monday. Although Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez has pitched well this season, he has struggled against the Yankees. Rodriguez should have a very high ERA against New York this season but he has been fortunate to work out of some major jams. He won't be so fortunate here because, when a pitcher has allowed 29 baserunners in just 17 and 2/3 innings, it eventually catches up with him! Rodriguez has had trouble consistently retiring Yankees hitters this season. As for New York starter James Paxton, he enters this start on a very strong run over his past seven starts. However, the southpaw gave up 7 earned runs in just 4 innings in his lone start at Fenway Park. Back in July Paxton got rocked in Boston and, though he struck out 9, he also allowed 4 homers in just 4 innings in that rough outing. I expect another slugfest tonight at Fenway Park with the wind possibly also aiding the cause as it will likely be directed toward left field for this one. That said, plenty of right-handed power in each lineup teeing off against a pair of southpaw starters in this one. 10* OVER the total in Boston

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #952 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:05 ET - Phillies ace Aaron Nola gets the start in this one. He has a 2.58 ERA in his last 15 starts and that is even including a rare tough outing in his most recent start. Coming off a tough outing at Cincinnati, look for Nola to bounce back big at home on Monday. Nola is 6-1 with a 2.85 ERA at Citizens Bank Park this season. Nola is also 3-0 in his 4 starts against the Braves this season and he has held Atlanta to a .211 batting average on the year. The Braves are starting Mike Foltneywicz in this one. The Atlanta right-hander is having a tough season and has a 5.97 ERA in his dozen night starts this season. Foltneywicz has shown this pattern in recent seasons as his ERA over the past 3 seasons was also 2 runs higher in night games compared to day games. Considering the above as well as the home field edge and also the fact that the Phillies are now just 2 games out of the 2nd Wild Card spot after back to back wins this weekend, you have a great value spot on the home team as a short money line favorite with a high-quality pitcher getting the start. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 7:10 ET - Both teams have shaky bullpens but we've seen this total drop from a 9 to an 8.5 because of the Bryce Harper situation. Though X-rays were negative he may not play today due to trouble gripping the bat after being nailed on the hand by a Steven Matz pitch last night. Keep in mind, the Phillies have plenty of other contributors in the lineup other than just Harper. That said, I love the over in this spot because Philadelphia just faced Marcus Stroman last weekend and though he only allowed 2 earned runs he did allowed 7 hits in 6 innings. Keep in mind August was his first month with the Mets and he got hit at a .301 clip last month. The point is that they adjustment to the National League has not gone well for Stroman and I expect the Phillies potent lineup to do some damage in this one. However, the issue for the Phillies is the fact that Drew Smyly is on the mound. He is 3-6 with a 6.65 ERA on the season and has been struggling in recent weeks for Philly. The southpaw has allowed 9 homers in his last 25.1 innings. The over is a perfect 4-0 in New York's last 4 games. Also, the Mets have won 5 of their past 7 games thanks in large part to great production from their lineup as they have scored an average of 7 runs per game their past 7 games. With this total dropping to an 8.5, a pair of sub-par bullpens, and two starting pitchers each struggling in many of their outings since changing teams, I look for plenty of runs in this one. 10* OVER the total in the New York Mets

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #923 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Indians @ 8:10 ET - The Twins managed just 2 runs yesterday in their win over the Red Sox. The Indians managed just 1 run yesterday in their loss to the White Sox. Both these teams, of course, have much more potent lineups than what yesterday's results showed. I love coming back with the over in a situation like this as both teams return to normal "pounding of the ball" the very next day. The Twins are a very potent team when at home. In fact, 15 of their past 20 games have gone over the total when they are in Minneapolis. As for the Indians, the over was on a 5-0 run in their games prior to yesterday's disappointing home loss to the White Sox. I fully expect the Indians bats to get back on track here. I know Michael Pineda has good numbers for the Twins but he has struggled in his past two home starts. Also, he recently has faced a number of light-hitting teams. He is going to face a much bigger challenge here so don't let the big number (currently 10.5) on this total concern you. As for Adam Plutko, the Indians right-hander got rocked at Target Field last month. Also, he has been hit 68 points higher in road games than home games this season and 94 points higher in night games compared to day games. On the road for this one and under the lights in Minnesota, look for Plutko's struggles to continue. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 Friday 8* OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers @ 7:05 ET - Late in the season when looking for high-scoring games, I like to focus in on match-ups involving two teams whose seasons are already decided as they are out of the post-season picture. The reason for this is that they tend to be very relaxed at the plate as there certainly is no playoff pressure. In this case we have a rather low total that has moved even lower and that makes this spot a must-play for me. Yes, the wind will be blowing in Friday at Camden Yards. However, that doesn't mean these teams aren't going to hit these pitchers well. The Rangers have a number of guys that have given Dylan Bundy trouble. We also get value here because Bundy had solid August numbers but he faded toward the end of the month plus has been helped by facing a lot of weak teams. I see him getting rocked here. As for Rangers rookie Brock Burke, yes he has a low ERA but in his most recent start he allowed 7 hits and only struck out 2. The more MLB hitters are seeing him (that was his 3rd start) the more the contact has improved and the Orioles tend to hit well at home. Also, the Rangers bullpen is mediocre at best while the Baltimore bullpen ranks as the worst in the majors. I look for runs early, often, and throughout this contest and we've got a very low total to work with. I'll take advantage of that! 8* OVER the total in Baltimore

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #971 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins @ 7:10 ET - This total opened up as high as a 12.5 and of course the betting markets are saying how "wrong" the odds makers are and the total has been pounded down to an 11.5 as of very early Thursday morning. Of course long-time followers know how I feel about this and, in typical contrarian fashion, I am fading the line move here and going with the over. I lost with this play last night in large part because the Twins left 10 men on base, hit into 3 double plays, and went 0 for 4 with runners in scoring position. I look for Minnesota to make up for that Thursday. I know Nathan Eovaldi is off a strong start but I am not going to put too much stock into just one start. The Red Sox right-hander has been pounded at a .323 clip and compiled an 8.44 ERA in his 9 games (2 starts) at Fenway Park this season. As for the Twins starter, Martin Perez, he has been on the fade for quite awhile now. He is 2-5 in his last 16 starts and Perez has compiled a 6.24 ERA in these 16 starts. That doesn't bode well for the lefty now facing a potent Red Sox lineup at hitter-friendly Fenway Park. The over is 8-2 in the last 10 starts Perez has made. The over is 35-16 this season when the Red Sox are a favorite in a price range of -100 to -150. This game falls within that range as of early Thursday morning. 10* OVER the total in Boston

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #965 Thursday 8* OVER the total in Oakland A's vs Los Angeles Angels @ 3:35 ET - First off, NOTE that this is a play for me REGARDLESS of who pitches. I say that because the Angels are expected to use Luke Bard as an opener but Jose Suarez is expected to follow and is likely to see more of the work. Regardless of who starts I am looking for plenty of runs in this one even if none of these starters (Brian Anderson of the A's too) were to get the start. As for Bard his ERA was 2.00 way back in mid-May but since then he has an 8.44 ERA! As for Suarez, he had a rough August and is in poor current form as he compiled an 8.72 ERA last month. The A's Anderson will be pitching under the sun in this one and that may not be a good thing! In his afternoon starts this season Anderson is 2-4 with a 5.57 ERA and he has been hit at a .316 clip. Also, Anderson has a 5.96 ERA in his last 4 home starts. Prior to being shut out yesterday the Angels had averaged scoring 6 runs per game their 4 prior games. The A's have averaged scoring 6 runs per game in their past 14 games. Thursday is often a get away day for teams so it is worth mentioning that the over is 12-5 in Angels Thursday games this season. Also, don't let the big number scare you away here. The over is 5-0 this season in Athletics home games with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs. 8* OVER the total in Oakland

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #951 Thursday 8* Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (+) @ Cincinnati Reds @ 12:35 ET - The Reds Sonny Gray had an excellent August and is having a strong season. But the game is about more than just the starting pitcher! That said, there is great line value here the much better team, coming off a loss and in the +150 underdog price range for this one! Gray is only 1-5 in his 9 day game starts this season. We get extra value here because the Phillies Jason Vargas is coming off his worst start since coming to Philadelphia this summer. You can chalk that one up to "trying to do too much" against his former team and getting away from his normal game plan. Prior to that ugly outing against the Mets, Vargas had allowed 3 earned runs or less in 6 of 8 outings and he logged at least 5 and 2/3 innings in all 6 of those solid starts. Lets not forget that the Reds had lost 6 of 7 prior to yesterday's win which came on a rare off-night for the Phillies ace, Aaron Nola. Also, Philly had won 3 in a row overall plus 5 of its last 7 road games prior to last night's loss. Since mid-July, the Phillies are 15-6 when off a loss. Since mid-August, Cincinnati is just 9-16 overall and that includes last night's win. Grab the big dog value here. Since August 1st, the Reds are just 3-6 against left-handed starters and they already got shut down by Phillies lefty Drew Smyly in the opener of this series. More of the same here. 8* PHILADELPHIA