Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox @ 8:10 ET - Lucas Giolito has surprisingly good numbers this season. But lets look at who he has faced recently. The White Sox right-hander, in 4 of his last 5 starts, has faced the Blue Jays twice plus the Royals and the Indians. None of those teams are known for their prowess at the plate. Note that Giolito's first start this season was also against the light-hitting Royals and was also a strong start. So how has he fared in his starts against quality teams this season? Giolito's other 3 starts have seen him allow 14 runs (12 earned) in 14 and 1/3 innings. Thursday he'll be facing an Astros lineup that is one of the best in baseball plus he is catching the Astros a day after his White Sox team upset Gerrit Cole and company in embarrassing 9-4 fashion. In other words, Houston is highly likely to be zoned in and respond well today at the plate. The issue for the Astros today will be their young starting pitcher Corbin Martin. The rookie right-hander struggled badly in his 2nd start after having a very successful start in his MLB starting debut. This is normal for a rookie pitcher. They are going to encounter early problems as they get adjusted to the MLB level. Martin is very likely to struggle Thursday against a White Sox team that is surging with confidence at the plate after putting up 9 runs yesterday. The over is 10-4-1 in Houston's games against teams with a losing record this season. In the 7 games this season with the Astros as a home favorite of -175 to -250, only 2 of the 7 have resulted in an under. 10* OVER the total in Houston

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Thursday 8* Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (+) @ Chicago Cubs @ 2:20 ET - The Phillies as a dog with surging Aaron Nola on the mound against the Cubs and a struggling Jon Lester? I'll take it as I also like the fact that the Phillies have lost each of the first two games in this series and they have been strong this season when they enter a game off a loss and that is why their longest losing streak all season has been three games. Look for Philadelphia to improve to 12-4 on the season in day games! Nola has allowed just a single earned run in 4 of his last 5 starts. As for Lester, his recent performance doesn't look bad based on ERA but he has been fortunate to say the least. The Cubs southpaw has allowed 27 hits in the 17 frames spanning his last 3 starts. Finally he did get roughed up for 5 earned runs in 4 and 1/3 innings against the downtrodden Nationals in his most recent start. In other words, Lester is in trouble against an upstart Phillies team here. Even though the Phils got trounced on the scoreboard yesterday they did outhit the Cubs 13 to 8. Look for the road dog to get some well-deserved payback this afternoon. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #967 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees @ 7:05 ET - The Yankees are red hot at the plate and, in theory, could win this play for us practically all by themselves just with their own bats! Sound too good to be true? Consider that the Yankees have now won 3 straight games and scored at least 10 runs in all 3 of those victories! Also consider that New York will be facing a struggling Orioles starting pitcher, Daniel Straily, and a Baltimore bullpen that ranks dead last in the American League. The Orioles relief work this season has compiled a 6.12 ERA. The Yankees bullpen has been much better than that but still only ranks in the middle of the pack for bullpen ERA this season. As for the starting pitchers in this match-up, Straily is 0-3 with an 11.78 ERA in his 5 home appearances (4 starts) this season. Opponents are hitting a ridiculous .388 against Straily at Camden Yards and now he faces what has been the hottest lineup in the league over their last 3 games! As for Yankees starter CC Sabathia, he made 4 starts against the Orioles last season and walked away with just one victory! In those outings the southpaw compiled a 5.14 ERA and allowed 5 homers in just 21 innings of work. The veteran lefty is winless with a 4.70 ERA in his 3 road starts this season. The Orioles certainly are not a great hitting team but they have had success against Sabathia and they do tend to be stronger at home than on the road. With scoring 4 runs yesterday the Orioles have scored between 4 and 7 runs in 4 of their last 6 games. Also, when the Orioles are off a game in which they allowed double digits in runs, the over is now 6-1 this season! The Yankees are an incredible 15-4 to the over this season in road games! More of the same expected here! 10* OVER the total in Baltimore

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Oakland A's @ 1:10 ET - I know 9.5 seems like a big number for a total at Progressive Field but, keep in mind, this is an afternoon game and temperatures are warming into the 70s and the wind will be blowing out. Also, with their 5-3 win yesterday, the Athletics have won 5 straight games and they are hot at the plate (even without Khris Davis) as they've scored an average of 7.8 runs per game during this 5-game streak. The Indians, even with scoring only 3 runs in yesterday's loss, have averaged 6.4 runs per game their last 7 games overall. Also, Cleveland is 5-3 in their last 8 home games and the Tribe has scored an average of 5.8 runs per game during this 8-game stretch. The A's are starting Freddie Montas here and he is off a great start at Detroit but he actually had been hit quite hard in 3 of his 4 prior starts and that included an outing against the Indians where he allowed 8 hits in 6 innings. Jefry Rodriguez gets the start for the home side here and, like Montas, he is also giving an opponent a quick second look as he faced the A's recently. In that start at Oakland Rodriguez had as many walks as strikeouts and he allowed 3 earned runs in 6 innings. In his next (and most recent) start, Rodriguez allowed 4 earned runs against the worst team (Baltimore) in the American League. You can see why I am expecting Rodriguez to struggle against this surging Oakland team. I know the Indians bullpen has been strong this season but the A's bats have been so hot and, as for the Athletics pen, they rank only in the middle of the pack this season. 8* OVER the total in Cleveland

Early Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #903 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies @ 7:05 ET - High temperatures will be close to 70 degrees in Pittsburgh today and both of these teams were off yesterday. That means both lineups should be fully stacked and in good shape here and we've got a very low total to work with here. The reason for the low total makes sense because it is based on the long-term reputation of both German Marquez and Chris Archer. However, the low total is also creating a ton of value when you consider the fact that both Marquez and Archer have been struggling plus the fact that both of these teams have been trending over for an extended stretch! The over is 12-4-1 in the month of May in Pirates games. Also, the over is 16-4-1 in the Rockies last 21 games! Colorado has scored an average of 6.3 runs per game their last 9 games. Pittsburgh has scored an average of 5.1 runs per game their last 8 games. The Rockies Marquez has a 6.00 ERA in his last 3 starts and all three of those outings resulted in an over. The Colorado right-hander has allowed 20 hits in the 12 innings spanning his last two starts. The Pirates Archer has a 10.66 ERA in his last 3 starts and each of his last two outings have resulted in a over. The Pittsburgh right-hander has given up 13 runs (12 earned) in less than 8 innings of work spanning his last two starts. When playing after a day off the Rockies have had only 2 unders in 8 occurrences this season. The Pirates are a long-term 28-16 to the over when playing after a day off. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh

Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees @ 7:05 ET - These lineups are very familiar with the pitchers they are facing in this one. The Yankees JA Happ has already faced the Orioles 3 times this season! In those starts the Yanks southpaw has allowed 5 homers in only 13 and 2/3 innings of work! The Orioles Andrew Cashner will be facing the Yankees for the third time already this season. The Baltimore right-hander has been rocked for 8 earned runs in 10 innings of work against the Yanks this season. I am well aware of the fact that Cashner was stronger at Yankee Stadium last week and has some decent home numbers this season, but all this repetition for these pitchers against the same hitters so frequently is going to lead to troubles tonight. It is going to be very hitter-friendly conditions in this one as the weather continues to warm along the east coast in what has been a later spring than usual this year. Note that 16 of the last 22 meetings between these teams (including all 3 this season!) have gone over the total. The Yankees are 13-4 to the over in road games this season. As a home dog in a range of +125 to +175, the Orioles are 8-4 to the over this season. More of the same expected Monday as note that the O's also have the worst bullpen in the American League with a 5.96 ERA on the season. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 1:10 ET - It will be another hitter-friendly afternoon at a very hitter-friendly venue on Sunday afternoon. No need to rest any hitters here either as both teams have an off-day tomorrow. After the Reds got shutout Friday and the Dodgers got shutout Saturday, look for both teams to finally contribute well to the total in Sunday's match-up. Yes, the Dodgers Hyun-Jin Ryu gives the appearance (from his last 3 starts) that he is practically unhittable, note that this match-up will play out much differently. First off all 3 of those starts were at pitcher-friendly venues - 2 at Dodger Stadium and 1 at San Francisco against the punch-less Giants. In his last 3 starts against the Reds, Ryu has a 5.79 ERA and has allowed 22 hits (including 5 homers) in just 14 innings of work. The Dodgers southpaw gave up 4 earned runs in 7 and 1/3 innings spanning his first two road starts this season. He'll be tested big time this afternoon at hitter-friendly Cincy on a warm afternoon with the wind blowing out to left at a strong clip. The Dodgers should also pound Tanner Roark. He is on the fade right now and gave up 8 hits in 5 innings in his most recent start. Simply put, he was lucky the damage wasn't worse in terms of earned runs and that means his status as a "fade candidate" is currently flying "under the radar". We can step in and take advantage. Roark's recent stats were skewed by facing the A's at Oakland and facing the light-hitting Giants. Note that in his other starts this season he has been consistently hit quite hard and I look for the Dodgers to light him up after being shutout yesterday. This is a contrarian play compared to what the markets are seeing and that is precisely the type of play I love the most as we get the best value. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #902 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Colorado Rockies @ 1:05 ET - Here with go with the "avoid the sweep" theory leading to false market perception which in turns leads to great line value for contrarian bettors. The fact is that the "avoid the sweep" theory is highly over-rated. You really think the Phillies aren't "in it to win it" today? They have a lengthy road trip coming up after this and, as a result, Philadelphia is just as motivated as the Rockies here. The key to the value is that this line has gone from the Phillies being in the -150 money line range to now as low as the -120 range as of early game day morning. Note that Colorado's Kyle Freeland has allowed SEVEN homers in his last THREE starts! Philadelphia's Jerad Eickhoff had allowed ZERO homers in his first FOUR starts this season before running into some trouble against the Brewers in his most recent start. Prior to the loss to Milwaukee, Eickhoff had allowed just 5 runs in his first 30 innings of work this season! As for Freeland, he has allowed 16 runs (14 earned) in the 17 innings spanning his last 3 starts. These two starters are at opposite ends of the spectrum right now plus the Phillies have the home field edge here and the line value edge after the big movement on this money line. Note that Philadelphia is 6-1 this season in Sunday games and 10-4 this season in day games. Also, the Phils are 12-4 this season as a home favorite in a range of -125 to -175 on the money line. The Rockies are 1-5 this season in road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #953 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 4:10 ET - The Dodgers delivered the shutout win last night. The over is 20-11 when Los Angeles is off a game in which they shut out their opponent. I look for the over to improve to 8-4 this season in LA day games. The weather will be hot and steamy in Cincinnati this afternoon with the winds blowing out toward left center. These are the types of weather days where Great American Ball Park (known as a very hitter-friendly venue) plays out particularly well for the hitters. Even though Walker Buehler has good numbers this season the over is 3-1 in his road starts as he has compiled a 5.40 ERA away from home thus far. Buehler has had success in his two career starts against the Reds but both those were at pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium. Now with Cincinnati getting a shot at him at home and with the fact they just faced him last month, I look for the Reds sticks to perform much better today. Keep in mind, Cincinnati had scored an average of 7 runs per game in their 7 home games prior to being shutout last night. As for the Dodgers bats, they have scored 6 runs in 3 of their last 4 games and should enjoy success against Tyler Mahle in this one. LA just faced him last month and got to him for 4 earned runs on 11 hits in just 6 innings of work. The only other start Mahle has against the Dodgers saw him walk 4 batters in just 5 innings of work. You can see why success is unlikely for the Reds right-hander today. Cincy is off rare back to back unders at home as the over was on a 6-1 run in the Reds 7 home games prior to this. All signs point to both teams having plenty of success at the plate in this one. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #965 Saturday 8* OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 1:05 ET - These pitchers just matched up Sunday in Tampa Bay and both the Rays Blake Snell and the Yankees Masahiro Tanaka had great starts. However, giving these lineups a quick second look on Saturday coupled with the fact the venue shifts north to the Bronx means I am expecting a much different result in this one. The last time Snell pitched away from home he got rocked for 7 earned runs just 3 innings at Kansas City. Tanaka allowed 9 hits in 6 innings the last time he faced the Rays at Yankee Stadium. Also, in his most recent start against Tampa prior to Sunday's gem, the Yankees right-hander allowed 4 runs (3 earned) in only 4 innings of work! His two prior starts against the Rays (that one at Tampa and the most recent one in the Bronx) have seen Tanaka allow 15 hits in 10 innings against the Rays. We've got a low total to work with here (currently 8 runs) and the over is 5-2 in Yankees Saturday games this season. Also, the Rays have only played 7 games this season against teams with a winning record and yesterday's under was just the 2nd in those 7 games. Look for the bats to come to life this afternoon with hitter-friendly conditions at Yankee Stadium. The late runs scored in yesterday's game also show that both bullpens could be susceptible to some damage again this afternoon as well. 8* OVER the total in New York Yankees 

Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #904 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Colorado Rockies @ 7:05 ET - The Rockies are hitting just .217 on the road this season. Of course they have never seen Phillies rookie Cole Irvin as he just made his MLB debut in a start versus the Royals Sunday. The Philadelphia southpaw was very impressive and certainly earned a second start as the Phils are evaluating him for a possible spot in the rotation. The Rockies are  different team when they are away from their hitter-friendly home venue - Coors Field in Denver. That said, I like backing this Phillies team in a bounce back spot as they have lost 3 straight games and all were at home! This matches Philadelphia's longest losing streak of the season and they snapped that one at 3 games and I feel strongly they will do the same here. Yes, Colorado's Jon Gray did have a strong start versus the Phillies last month and has a decent history against them. However, Gray has never won at Citizens Bank Park and allowed 4 earned runs in his most recent outing here. Also, the Rockies right-hander has had trouble with the Phillies 4 key off-season acquisitions too. Harper, Realmuto, McCutchen, and Segura all have great numbers against Gray. Since his strong start against the Phillies, Gray has actually been struggling as he has a 7.16 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in his 3 starts since then. The Rockies have lost 13 of 21 this season when off a loss. The Phils have won 12 of 18 when off a loss this season. The Phillies also have won 3 of 4 this season when off a game in which they allowed double digits in runs. After getting embarrassed by losing 3 straight to the Brewers after winning the series opener, the Phils get back on track with a big home win against a lesser foe as the road-adverse Rockies come to town. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs Texas Rangers @ 1:15 ET - Perfect set up here in many ways. Yesterday's game was a 6-1 Rangers win that stayed under the total so that is helping to keep this total off the radar of the betting markets as, to many, a 10 may look too big. The fact is that this should be an absolutely slugfest. The temperatures will be in the 80s this afternoon in Kansas City. The wind will be blowing out at Kauffman Stadium. The Rangers bullpen (4.87 ERA) and the Royals bullpen (4.59 ERA) both rank among the worst in the majors! As for the starting pitching match-up here we have Lance Lynn for Texas and Homer Bailey for KC. The fact is that Lynn has seen his better years at the major league level. He has a 5.48 ERA this season and a 5.13 ERA in his career starts against the Royals. Lynn allowed 3 homers at Houston in his most recent start and this followed an outing where he allowed 5 earned runs in 6 innings against the Blue Jays. As for Bailey, he is off a rare strong start. Yes, prior to a solid outing against the Phillies, he also was successful but that was against the punch-less Tigers. In his two outings prior to that Bailey gave up 8 earned runs in 7 innings of work. From 2015 to 2018, Bailey was hit at a better than .300 clip all 4 seasons and he compiled an ERA north of 6.00 in those 4 seasons combined. He has trended better than usual early this season but still his overall numbers are not that impressive and you know a regression to the mean is right around the corner. Look for it to begin today in very hitter friendly conditions at Kauffman Stadium. The over is 10-2 in Rangers day games this season. The over is 19-8 this season in Royals games when they are off a loss. KC also is a solid 13-7 to the over in day games. 10* OVER the total in Kansas City

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #951 Thursday 8* OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs New York Mets @ 1:05 ET - The Mets Zack Wheeler has good numbers so far this season but the fact is that the Nationals have proven to be a tough match-up for him. Wheeler has allowed 11 earned runs in less than 10 innings of work in his two starts against the Nats this season. The Mets lost both of those Wheeler starts and I expect him to struggle again today. Washington will have Anibal Sanchez on the mound for this one. The last time he faced the Mets as a host, Sanchez allowed 4 earned runs in just 4 innings of work. That was last season but also note that he is struggling badly this season. Sanchez is 0-6 with a 5.27 ERA in his 8 starts this season. Yesterday's 5-1 Nationals win stayed under the total but I expect much more out of the Mets sticks in this one considering the pitching match-up. Also, the Nationals rank as the worst bullpen in MLB with a 6.15 ERA and the Mets are also in the bottom third of the league in that category as their bullpen has a 4.44 ERA on the season thus far. As a road favorite of -125 to -175 this season, New York is 5-0 to the over. The Nationals have scored an average of 6 runs per game in their last 7 games against the Mets and I look for another big game at the plate Thursday. 8* OVER the total in Washington

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 3:40 PM ET - This total dropping to a 7.5 has opened up some great value with the over. Of course the total was low to begin with because of Zack Greinke being on the mound for Arizona. Chris Archer goes for Pittsburgh and, though not at Greinke's level, he also is a respected pitcher. However, the key to the value here is the low total combined with a couple other key factors. For one thing, Archer has been out for a couple weeks with right thumb inflammation. I don't expect him to be operating at his highest level in his first start back. He has a 5.73 ERA on the road this season and struggling more away from home is not a new trend either. Entering this season, Archer had a 4.92 ERA away from home in the past 3 seasons combined. Greinke does have a history of success against the Pirates but Pittsburgh has been extra scrappy of late and playing their best ball of the season. I would not be surprised to see them enjoy some moderate success today against Greinke as the Bucs have won 9 of their last 13 games. With yesterday's 6-2 win here at Arizona, the Pirates have scored an average of 5 runs per game in their past 10 games. The Diamondbacks, prior to being held to just 2 runs in yesterday's loss, had averaged scoring 5 runs per game in their past 11 games. The over is a perfect 5-0 the last 5 times the Dbacks were off a game in which they were held to 2 or less runs. The Pirates over was 8-2-1 in May prior to yesterday's game staying under the total. Since April 21st, Pittsburgh has recorded back to back unders only ONE single time. That said, though this may be viewed as a contrarian play here I look for this game to get over the total as the hitters are going to surprise in this one. There are 15 teams in the National League and, in terms of bullpen ERA this season, the Pirates rank 12th and the Diamondbacks rank 13th. We should be in line to get some late inning runs if needed but I do expect some runs early and often in this one. 10* OVER the total in Arizona

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels @ 1:10 ET - The Twins Jake Odorizzi has been pitching very well. However, now he faces an Angels team that, despite scoring only 3 runs last night, notched double digits in hits for the 5th time in their last 6 games. Los Angeles has averaged 13 hits per game in those 5 games. Don't be surprised if they enjoy some success against Odorizzi on a warm afternoon at Target Field in Minneapolis with the temperatures rising well into the 70s. By the way, the Angels 11 hits yesterday were despite 0 from Mike Trout so you know what is likely coming today. Odorizzi is winless in his last 3 starts against the Angels and he has compiled a 5.71 ERA as they've hit nearly .300 against him. As for LA starter Trevor Cahill, struggles are expected here. The Angels right-hander has an 8.10 ERA in his last 3 starts and has allowed 5 homers in just 13 and 1/3 innings spanning those 3 outings. Cahill also is 0-3 in his last 3 starts against the Twins and they have gotten to him for 8 earned runs in only 8 and 1/3 innings! Cahill enters this start with the over having gone 4-0-1 in his last 5 starts overall. Look for that undefeated over trend to make it 6 in a row here in hitter-friendly conditions up north. The Angels have averaged 5.5 runs per game this season in games against right-handed starters and the Twins are in that same range against righties. This one has "double digits" in total runs scored written all "over" it! 8* OVER the total in Minnesota

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #977 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies @ 7:10 ET - This total has dropped from an 8.5 to an 8 and I am well aware that the weather will be chilly in Boston tonight and that Chris Sale is off a pair of strong starts. However, the fact is that both of these lineups are currently knocking the cover off the ball and also the Rockies Kyle Freeland has been struggling badly. As for Sale having back to back strong starts, one was against his former team (White Sox) and he reared back for a little extra juice in that one no doubt. The other one was against the miserable and downtrodden free-swinging Orioles. Give him credit for a pair of spectacular starts but lets not forget he has seemed a little "off" for much of the time early this season and now Sale faces a Rockies team that has scored an average of 8.2 runs per game so far in the month of May. That is all because of home games at Coors Field though, right? Nope! Actually Colorado has scored 11 runs in EACH of their two road games this month too. The fact is that the Rockies are a very confident team at the plate right now and, speaking of that, so too is Boston! The Red Sox enter this game having scored an average of 7.8 runs per game in the month of May! You can see why I like this over at 8 runs considering EACH team is averaging 8 runs per game this month! Also, Freeland enters this start with an 8.47 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Red Sox .267 batting average at home is one of the best in the majors. The Rockies .470 slugging percentage against lefties is one of the best in the majors! The over is 8-3 this month in Boston's games and 9-1 this month in Colorado's games. The over is also 12-5 this season when the Rockies are off a win. The over is 32-15 (including 5-2 this season) when the Red Sox are playing after a day off. 10* OVER the total in Boston

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Tuesday 8* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Indians @ 2:10 ET - This total has dropped from a 9 to an 8 and, while I certainly understand the move, there is no denying that it has opened up great line value for the over. When these pitchers matched up last week I got burned as had Cleveland on the run line and they jumped out to a 5-0 lead through 5 innings but the game was rain-shortened as it ended at the point and we didn't cash our ticket. This time I once again expect the Indians to give the struggling Manny Banuelos all sorts of trouble here but I also fully expect the White Sox, now in their home park, will enjoy some success against Carlos Carrasco. Note that Carrasco is 1-3 with a 7.71 ERA in his road starts this season. The White Sox, with yesterday's 5-2 win, have now scored 5 or more runs in each of their last 3 games. Chicago's Banuelos walked 5 and allowed 8 hits which led the way to 5 earned runs in just 4 and 1/3 innings when he faced this same lineup at Cleveland last week! The White Sox southpaw has an 18.00 ERA in his last two starts. I know each of these teams has been trending under of late but this game is set up well to put an end to that stretch after yesterday's game fell just short of going over. 8* OVER the total in the Chicago White Sox game

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #911 Monday 10* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Indians @ 8:10 ET - The weather will be chilly this evening in Chicago but we've got a low total to work with here and plenty of reason to count on this one going over the total. The Indians Shane Bieber just faced the White Sox on Wednesday. Though he held them to 3 earned runs Bieber did allow 8 hits in 6 and 1/3 innings. Now Chicago gets a quick second look at him plus the rematch is at Guaranteed Rate Field. As for the lineup of the Tribe, they're also looking forward to a rematch here. The Indians just faced Reynaldo Lopez Wednesday and they were held to 3 earned runs but got to him for 9 hits in 6 innings. The point being that both these pitchers were hit quite hard in their match-up last week but managed to escape major damage. I feel they won't be so fortunate here. Cleveland has averaged 10 hits per game their last 5 games and they scored 5 runs in 3 of those games. The White Sox are off a 3-game set at Toronto that saw them average 5 runs per game. We just need each team to get to 4 runs here and then the game is guaranteed of no less than a 5-4 final. The fact is that with these lineups having just faced these pitchers I expect plenty of runs early and often in this one. Lopez is winless with 7.11 ERA in his 4 career starts against the Indians. Also, Cleveland's Monday games are a perfect 3-0 to the over this season. 10* OVER the total in the Chicago White Sox game

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #909 Monday 7* OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels @ 7:40 ET - Jose Berrios is a great pitcher but the Angels possess the type of lineup that can give him trouble. The Twins right-hander has been hit at a .302 clip in his two career starts against Los Angeles. The Angels got to him for 5 earned runs in 5 and 1/3 innings in last season's match-up and Berrios recorded only 2 strikeouts in the game. Off a quiet day at the plate yesterday the Angels bounce back today as they had scored an average of 9.3 runs per game in their 3 games prior to yesterday. High temperatures will be near 70 degrees today in Minneapolis so finally some nice weather for a Twins home game here and I expect the Minnesota bats to have a big game against Tyler Skaggs. The Angels southpaw is 1-3 with a 6.38 ERA in his 4 road starts this season. The Twins are off a disappointing home loss yesterday but entered yesterday's action having won 8 of 11 home games and scoring an average of 6.9 runs per game in those 8 victories! The over is 4-1 this season in Twins games against left-handed starters. 7* OVER the total in Minnesota

Game of the Week NL Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #961 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Atlanta Braves @ 4:10 ET - Both starting pitchers have question marks and both are likely to get pounded here. The Diamondbacks are starting Zack Godley. The Arizona right-hander had been removed from the starting rotation after struggling in the majority of his starts this season. Though Godley has shown improvement coming out of the bullpen recently, don't be surprised if the struggles in the starting role quickly resume as there is a difference between a starters mentality and coming out of the pen. Godley has a 6.26 ERA in his 4 career starts versus the Braves. This season Godley has a 7.58 ERA in his six starts. The Braves will be starting Max Fried in this one. He took a line drive off his throwing hand in his most recent start. Don't be surprised if that is in the back of his mind in this start and he doesn't throw as well as usual. Complicating matters for Fried is the fact that the Diamondbacks are crushing southpaws this season. Against left-handed pitching Arizona has a .293 batting average and .524 slugging percentage as they lead the majors in both categories against lefties. Also, both of these bullpens rank in the bottom third of the majors. This will be the Diamondbacks 15th game against a left-handed starter this season and, thus far, only TWO of those games have resulted in an under. That strong trend continues here and, just like yesterday's game, this one gets over the number! 10* OVER the total in Arizona

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #969 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox @ 1:05 ET - The Blue Jays Aaron Sanchez has good overall numbers early this season but 4 of his starts have come against the A's (twice) and Indians/Tigers once each. Note that Oakland has one of the worst slugging percentages in the league plus Cleveland and Detroit are two of the worst hitting teams in the majors. The point is that the last 3 starts Sanchez has made that weren't against those teams have seen him allow 11 earned runs in 17 innings for a 5.82 ERA. The White Sox are hitting .251 in road games this season which puts them in the top ten in the majors and they have some familiarity with Sanchez. As for Chicago starter Lucas Giolito, his solid start this season also has an asterisk by it in my opinion. He is known for dominating the Royals in his career and struggling against everyone else. This season Giolito has benefited from facing Kansas City twice plus the horribly season-long slumping sticks of the Indians once. In his other 3 starts he has allowed 12 earned runs in 14 and 1/3 innings for a 7.53 ERA. Considering these factors, even though neither the White Sox or Blue Jays have been knocking the cover off the ball of late, I feel we have great value with this total in an American League match-up having dropped from a 9 to an 8.5 as of Sunday morning. Keep in mind, yesterday's 7-2 loss was the 7th time in the last 10 Jays games that they've allowed at least 6 runs! The White Sox are allowing an average of 5.2 runs per game this month. 6-5 game is very possible here but we should see, at the very least, a 5-4 type game. 8* OVER the total in Toronto

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Mets vs Miami Marlins @ 7:10 ET - On the surface this looks like it should be a pitchers duel. However, so did yesterday's game. On Friday Pablo Lopez (2.00 ERA L3 starts) and Zack Wheeler (2.70 ERA L3 starts) matched up. The result? 13 runs on 25 hits for the two teams and 19 of those hits did come against the two starters. That is part of the reason I am all over (literally!) the low total posted on Saturday's game. Yes, Jacob deGrom has a great reputation as well as some excellent recent numbers but this total is simply too low. Not only might the Mets get 7 runs by themselves but, keep in mind, deGrom has been roughed up in 2 of his 3 home starts this season. He dominate the Marlins earlier this season but Miami now gets another look and they are confident at the plate after pounding out double digits in hits yesterday. They have some hitters in their lineup whom have had some long-term success against deGrom. As for the Mets bats, they should have no trouble with Sandy Alcantara. He has been a very lucky pitcher as he has walked 13 batters in the 15 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts and yet he has a 4.70 ERA in these outings. Certainly it could be much worse and New York (happy to be back home after a lengthy road trip) pounded the ball yesterday and scored 11 runs. Alcantara had success against the Mets last season but he has not been the same pitcher this season. His recent starts have been very shaky even though he has faced the light-hitting Indians twice during this stretch. Alcantara in trouble here based on the way the Mets have been swinging the bats. Also, New York is 5-1 to the over in Saturday games this season and so too are the Marlins. Additionally, Miami has had just 2 unders in their 8 games this season that had a posted total of 7 or less runs. The Mets have had just 6 unders in their 19 night games this season. Take advantage of the low total here as these teams are also both near the bottom of the majors for bullpen ERA as well. 10* OVER the total in New York Mets

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #921 Saturday 7* Los Angeles Angels Money Line (-) @ Baltimore Orioles @ 4:05 ET - Home dogs can be an attractive betting proposition in MLB as a general rule. However, when that team hails from Baltimore "all bets are off" so to speak! The fact is that the Orioles have just 5 home wins this season. No team in the majors (not even the miserable Marlins!) have fewer home wins than Baltimore. Not only that, the Orioles are hosting a red hot Angels team. With yesterday's 8-3 win, Los Angeles is 9-4 in its last 13 games! The  Angels have averaged 5.8 runs per game in their last 10 games. To put that in proper perspective in comparing with Baltimore, note that the Orioles are 3-9 in their last 12 games and have managed to score more than 5 runs just ONE time in their last 13 games. So the Angels have been AVERAGING 6 runs per game while the Orioles have only gotten to 6 runs a SINGLE time in THIRTEEN games. You can see why this game has "road rout" written all over it as also note that the O's are averaging just 2.9 runs per game their last dozen games. Matt Harvey is off a tough start for the Angels but had dominated in his two prior outings and this is his first ever start against the Orioles so their weak lineup also has a lack of experience with him. As for Baltimore's Dylan Bundy, he is off a great start but is still 1-4 with a 5.30 ERA in his 7 starts this season so that says a lot about how he has been pitching overall. Also, Bundy got crushed by the Angels last season and allowed 3 homers in less than 5 innings of work. This is a classic case of hot versus not and I am going to fade the majors WORST home team for a reasonable money line price here. Will reduce the rating for the moderate price but still a great value spot. 7* LOS ANGELES ANGELS money line

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners @ 1:05 ET - Give Rick Porcello credit for bouncing back after a rough start to this season. However, a lot of it also had to do with match-ups that were positive ones for him. That said, the Red Sox right-hander now faces a Mariners lineup that has given him plenty of trouble and that includes an ugly outing early this season. Porcello has allowed 8 earned runs in less than 9 innings of work in his last two starts against the Mariners. Those both came at Seattle. The last time he faced the M's as a host, Porcello allowed only 2 earned runs in 6 innings but he did allow 11 hits in that one so he was fortunate to say the least. He is one of the most homer prone pitchers in the majors and allowed 2 in his most recent start Sunday. As for Mariners pitcher Felix Hernandez, he is likely to get rocked here. The veteran righty is 1-11 with a 5.89 ERA in his last 18 games on the mound! Facing the Red Sox is unlikely to help matters for Hernandez as he has allowed 16 earned runs in the 15 innings spanning his last 3 starts against Boston and that included getting absolutely clobbered at Fenway Park. The Red Sox are off a huge game at the plate yesterday as they erupted for 14 runs. Boston is now averaging 7.3 runs per game in their last 11 games as they're on a 9-2 hot streak. The Mariners have now been held to just 1 run in back to back games but had previously averaged 7 runs per game in their 4 prior games and I see them getting back on track against a pitcher they've crushed in recent meetings. 8* OVER the total in Boston

Annihilation Rout - Rickenbach MLB Game #979 Friday 7* Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) @ Kansas City Royals @ 8:15 ET - The Phillies have won 8 of their last 11 games. Also, Philadelphia has won 3 of its last 4 road games. While the Phils are one of the top teams in the majors early this season, the Royals are languishing in the cellar of the AL Central as they again look like one of the worst teams in the majors this season. Kansas City is likely to have a tough time with Jake Arrieta. The veteran right-hander was great early last season and his pattern of early season success has continued this season. He did have one rough start recently where he allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings but that game he actually was cruising along with a huge lead heading into the 6th inning and he seemed to lose his "edge" at that point. However, in all his other starts this season Arrieta has indeed held the "edge" as he continues to dominate. In his other 6 starts he has never allowed more than 3 earned runs and, in fact, has compiled a 2.70 ERA in those 6 outings! He'll be opposed by the Royals Homer Bailey. The KC right-hander has had one good start at home (against an Indians team that has struggled at the plate early this season). In Bailey's other 3 home starts this season he has allowed 14 earned runs in 16 innings! Will he bounce back here? It is unlikely given that he has also allowed 6 earned runs in his last 7 innings pitched away from home too. In other words, no matter where he is pitching, Bailey has struggled more often than not this season. Also, the Royals have lost 13 of their last 19 games overall. Going further back, since winning their first two games of the season Kansas City has gone 11-25. This one has road rout written all over it and that is why I am willing to lay a moderate price here (-140 range) and will reduce my rating a bit but expect a solid win. 7* PHILADELPHIA

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #969 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners @ 7:10 ET - Fenway Park is well known as a hitters park. When there are favorable weather conditions the advantage to the hitters can actually be quite greatly enhanced. That is certainly expected to be the case Friday evening as the temperatures will be in the 60s and the wind will be blowing out at a good clip. Couple that with two strong lineups and a pair of starting pitchers likely to struggle and you have the perfect scenario for a slugfest. I am well aware of the fact that Erik Swanson has had some good starts for the Mariners but the key is that those came against an Indians team that is struggling badly at the plate early this season. The Seattle right-hander excelled in both starts against the Tribe but note that he got clobbered for 10 earned runs in less than 10 innings of work in his other two starts this season. Now Swanson faces a Red Sox team that has won 8 of its last 10 games. Also, prior to a tight 2-1 win Wednesday, Boston had scored an average of 7 runs per game in their previous 9 games during this hot streak. As for the Mariners sticks, they have excelled against lefties this season (except for against JA Happ yesterday). Seattle should resume hitting southpaws well here as Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez has a situation similar to Swanson's. The Red Sox left-hander has had strong starts against sub-par teams like the Orioles, White Sox, and Tigers. However, in the other 4 starts for Rodriguez this season he has allowed 18 earned runs in 18 innings! Note that the over is 9-1 this season in Mariners games against left-handed starters. Also, the over is 31-15 (including 4-2 this season) when the Red Sox are playing after a day off. Nice situation here for a slugfest! 10* OVER the total in Boston

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #919 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oakland A's vs Cincinnati Reds @ 3:35 ET - Yesterday's game went 13 innings which used up bullpen for each team. That means if either starter gets into trouble here - and both certainly could - there might be some tired arms called upon in this one. Even though the total has moved to a 9 in a lot of spots, the over is still offering great value here as day games in Oakland are much more hitter-friendly than night games. At night, Oakland Coliseum is known as a park that is friendly to pitchers. However, in day games - and particularly with the wind blowing out toward center - the ballpark is definitely a little more hitter friendly. That explains part of the reason why the over is 74-52 (including 8-3 this season) in Athletics day games. Also, the over is 15-9 in A's games against right-handed starters this season and also the over is 3-1 in Oakland's inter-league games. The over is 5-1 in the Reds last 6 games and Cincinnati has scored an average of 7 runs per game during this stretch. Cincy is starting Tanner Roark in this one and he gave up 4 earned runs in his most recent road start this season and also allowed 4 earned runs in his most recent start at Oakland. As for A's starter Chris Bassitt, he has good numbers early this season but he has only made 3 starts and the last two were against the Blue Jays and Pirates. Note that Toronto and Pittsburgh are two of the lowest scoring teams in the majors this season. That said, Bassitt is now facing a Reds team that has been producing runs as well as any team in the majors over the past 7 days. Per the above, you can see why both lineups should have big days at the plate in this one. 10* OVER the total in Oakland

Run Line Rout - Rickenbach MLB Game #912 Thursday 8* Cleveland Indians Run Line -1.5 runs vs Chicago White Sox @ 1:10 ET - The Indians are a big favorite on the money as they are currently priced at -220 or more. However, by utilizing the run line we can get Cleveland at even money with laying the 1.5 runs. That said, I like our chances of a dominating home win here. Now I am well aware of the fact that the Indians have not been scoring well this season. However, they do have momentum here after last night's 5-3 win which handed the White Sox their 4th loss in their last 6 games. Chicago has had just one big game at the played in those 6 games. In the other 5 games, the White Sox have scored an average of only 2 runs per game! All 4 losses in this stretch have come by 2 or more runs and, in fact, the average margin of defeat was 6.8 runs per game! The Indians lineup will take advantage of facing Manny Banuelos. The Chicago southpaw was decent in his first two starts but he faced an Orioles team that is one of the worst in the majors. Sure enough he got clobbered in his next outing when he faced the Red Sox. The Indians should get to him early and often plus then Cleveland has the bullpen edge in this match-up too. As for the Tribe starter in this one, Carlos Carrasco did get victimized by the long ball in his most recent start but he still has a solid 3.24 ERA in his 3 home starts this season. Also, in his last 3 starts against the White Sox Carrasco has allowed just 2 earned runs total while striking out 31 batters in 20 and 2/3 innings! More dominance on tap here and that should lead to a home blowout in this one. 8* CLEVELAND -1.5 runs on the RUN LINE

Early Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #969 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins @ 7:05 ET - Off back to back shutouts and having scored a TOTAL of only TWO runs in their last THREE games, Toronto's bats might look dead in the water at this point. The fact is the Blue Jays lineup is weaker this season than in past seasons. However, the above factors are part of what is driving the solid line value here as this one is a positive match-up for the Jays sticks. The Twins are starting Kyle Gibson. Not only did the Minnesota right-hander allowed 4 earned runs in 5 and 1/3 innings versus the Blue Jays last month, he has a 7.56 ERA in three career starts at Rogers Centre in Toronto. The right-hander also has a 5.31 ERA in his road starts this season and the over is 3-1 in those 4 outings away from home. Gibson will be opposed by Trent Thornton in this one. He is 0-2 with a 5.00 ERA in his 4 home starts this season and only one of the four resulted in an under. Also, Thornton faced Minnesota last month and the Twins got to him for 4 earned runs in 4 and 2/3 innings of work. In taking the first two games of this 3-game set, the Twins are now a red hot 9-3 their last 12 games. Minnesota has scored an average of 6 runs per game in those 9 victories. The Blue Jays entered this series having gone 3-0 in their 3 most recent home games and scoring an average of 5.3 runs per game in the process. After facing tough starting pitching and struggling badly in the first two games of this series, this is the right match-up for the Blue Jays lineup to get back on track. As a result, the over improves to 6-3 in Gibson's career starts against the Jays. 10* OVER the total in Toronto

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #963 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Chicago White Sox @ 6:10 ET - Considering that the Tribe have scored a TOTAL of ONE run in their last THREE games, this is absolutely a contrarian play. Why do I like it so much? Weather, by Cleveland standards, will be mild with temperatures in the 60s and I fully expect the White Sox Reynaldo Lopez to help turn this Indians lineup around. Lopez pitched at Progressive Field twice last season and allowed 12 runs (11 earned) in a total of only 7 innings of work! The Chicago right-hander enters this start with a 6.69 ERA on the season and off an ugly outing at home versus the Red Sox. Lopez will be opposed by Shane Bieber here. The Indians right-hander is off a strong start but he threw a career-high 114 pitches. I like fading pitchers off long outings like that and Bieber is facing a White Sox team that has won 7 of its last 11 games and has averaged scoring 5 runs per game during this stretch. The over is 4-2 this season when Cleveland is at home and favored in a range of -175 to -250. Also, in home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs, the over is 4-2 in Indians games this season. The White Sox are 6-2 to the over in games against teams with a winning record and Chicago is also 14-6-1 to the over this season in games against right-handed starters. 8* OVER the total in Cleveland

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #915 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners @ 6:35 ET - With yesterday's game going over the total early, the over is now 11-4 in the Yankees last 15 games. As for the Mariners, they have been trending over all season long as they are 26-8-3 to the over on the year. Seattle is 13-3-1 to the over in road games and also 15-5-3 to the over in night games. The Mariners have a slugging percentage of .531 in road games this season and that ranks them #1 in the majors. The Yankees are hitting .266 against left-handed pitching this season and that ranks them #2 in the American League. New York will face southpaw Marco Gonzales in this one. Gonzales faced the Yankees once last season and it was here in the Bronx and he gave up 3 homers in an ugly outing that saw him allow 6 earned runs in 6 and 1/3 innings of work. With mild weather in the forecast in New York tonight the ball should be carrying well again at Yankee Stadium. Starting for the home side in this one is Masahiro Tanaka. The Yankees right-hander has good numbers against the Mariners in his career but he has struggled in 3 of his last 4 starts. He just doesn't seem quite right and the way Seattle has swung the bats this season they are a different team compared to the one he faced last season. Tanaka has given up 5 homers in his last 4 starts and these haven't been particularly long outings either. Another plus for the over here is that the Mariners bullpen ERA ranks among the worst in the majors this season. Though this total has moved from an opener of 8.5 to a 9 there is still plenty of value here in what could very well turn into a slugfest that goes over the total early just like yesterday's game did. 10* OVER the total in the New York Yankees game

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #955 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (+) @ St Louis Cardinals @ 8:05 ET - Scheduling edge to the Phillies here as they played early yesterday afternoon while the Cardinals had a night game. This is also a classic case of hot versus not as Philadelphia has won 6 of its last 8 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game in those 8 games. As for the Cards, they have now lost 4 straight games. Though they did end up scoring 5 runs yesterday most of that came very late after the game was already decided as St Louis got drilled and allowed 13 runs in yesterday's defeat. The point is that the Cardinals have been struggling at the plate as they entered yesterday's game having scoring an average of just 2 runs per game in their 3 prior games. The Phillies start Velasquez here and the right-hander is undefeated with a 1.62 ERA in his 3 road starts this season. He also threw 6 and 1/3 shutout innings in his lone start at Busch Stadium last season. Velasquez has allowed only 9 hits in his last 12 and 2/3 innings against St Louis. The Cardinals will have Mikolas on the mound in this one and he allowed 3 homers in 5 innings in his most recent home start. The St Louis right-hander also got rocked for 4 earned runs in 5 innings in his lone start against the Phillies last season. Also that was a Phils team without Bryce Harper and the slugger is 4 for 7 with a homer in his career against Mikolas. While some will be looking for a Cardinals bounce back here, the scheduling situation and pitching match-up favors the Phillies and I am happy to grab the underdog value. Also, the Cards are 7-11 the last 18 times they were off a game in which they allowed 10 or more runs. The Phils are 11-6 this season in games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #925 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 3:05 ET - The Blue Jays lineup is not overly impressive but I expect they put up 5 runs yesterday and are fully capable of getting at least that again here. At the same time, the Rangers should match them run for run and that is why I like the over here despite the fact a big total is posted on this game. The fact is that the Rangers are averaging 6 runs per game at home this season. Also Texas has averaged 7.6 runs per game in their last 6 games. The Rangers Drew Smyly has allowed 4 earned runs in each of his last 3 starts even though he only averaged 4 innings per start! Also, the Texas southpaw is returning from a stint on the DL as he was already dealing with arm fatigue and tightness early this season. Smyly's pitch count is likely to be limited and that will expose a Rangers bullpen that has ranked among the worst in the majors this season. As for Toronto starter Clay Buchholz, he has a 6.13 ERA in his last three starts and also note that he has a 5.58 ERA in road starts this season. It has been a few seasons since he has pitched at Arlington but that certainly has not been a good venue for him! Buchholz allowed 10 earned runs in less than 10 innings of work spanning his last two starts in Arlington. Both these pitchers are homer-prone and it will be hitter-friendly conditions on a warm afternoon in Texas and in a hitter-friendly park. The ball should be jumping off the bats here. The over is 41-23 when the Blue Jays are a road dog in a range of +125 to +175. Also, Toronto is 11-6 to the over in games with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs. The over is a long-term 43-25 when Texas is at home with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs. Also, the over is 7-2 in Rangers day games this season. 10* OVER the total in Texas

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #919 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Seattle Mariners @ 1:10 ET - The Indians and Mariners have been struggling overall at the plate in recent weeks but yesterday's game going over the total is a sign of what is to come Sunday too based on this pitching match-up. The Mariners Erik Swanson had a great first start this season and, ironically, it came against the Indians. However, he has since allowed 10 earned runs in less than 10 innings of work spanning his last two starts. Now he gives the Tribe a second look at him and plus this time it is at Cleveland. Look for the Indians bats to pound Swanson as his recent struggles are no fluke. As for Tribe starter Cody Anderson, he is only getting this start because Corey Kluber and Mike Clevinger are currently hurt. Note that Anderson has an ugly 13.49 ERA in his two career starts against the Mariners. He has missed the last two seasons after undergoing Tommy John surgery and Anderson has a 5.40 ERA working out of the bullpen so far this season. The over is 11-3 in Seattle's road games this season and the over is also 10-3 in Mariners day games this year. More of the same expected on Sunday. 8* OVER the total in Cleveland

Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #956 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Washington Nationals @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies won again yesterday on their home field and their number of home victories (13) is tops in the majors. The Nationals now have a losing record both at home and on the road after dropping yesterday's game. Washington still has some solid sticks in their lineup but injury issues have taken some of the strength out of this lineup. Jake Arrieta is off a start where he had a huge lead through 5 innings and had allowed only 1 earned run at that point. The fact he ended up allowing much more in that game only adds value to this spot here because it was a bit of a "fluke" and could have ended up being another quality start for Arrieta. He has been very strong overall early this season and that was the case last season as well. The fact is that he appears to be on top of his game again and has great movement and location with his pitches early this season. The Nationals don't have many hitters at all that have done much against Arrieta while the Phillies have a number of hitters that have fared well against Patrick Corbin. The left-hander has pitched well early this season but the Phillies are one of the top scoring teams in the majors when at home. Also, the Nationals bullpen ranks dead last in the national league. Washington is 4-12 in night games this season. The Phillies are 33-17 long-term and 9-3 this season when they enter a game as a home favorite in a range of -125 to -175. Though this line has dipped a little below that range early Saturday I expect it to bolt right back upwards into that range. In other words, play this one early! 10* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #965 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins @ 1:05 ET - Both the Twins Jake Odorizzi and the Yankees JA Happ are off strong starts. However, there is much more than meets the eye as the surface here. Happ is winless with an 8.16 ERA in his three home starts this season. Odorizzi is 1-2 with a 7.36 ERA in his road starts this season. The Yankees are 4-2 to the over in Happ's starts this season while the Twins are 3-0 to the over in Odorizzi's road starts this season. The over is 10-4-1 to the over in Minnesota's road games this season after yesterday's game snuck over the total late. Part of the key was the bullpen work and these teams rank only in the middle of the pack for bullpen ERA on the season. Considering that factor as well as the home/road dichotomy for the starting pitchers in this one, you can see why I am going with the over here. The over is 11-6 this season in Yankees games with posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs and I like the fact we've got good value here with this total at an 8.5 at Yankee Stadium. It will be mild weather in the Bronx and the Twins .481 slugging percentage versus left-handed pitchers ranks them 3rd in the American League. Minnesota is averaging 6.4 runs per game on the road this season but their bullpen ERA is a 5.56 away from home. The Yankees, in home games, are averaging 5.4 runs per game this season. This one flies over as both starting pitchers struggle more than the markets are expecting. Their recent starts have been good but the home/road issues are no fluke so far this season. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #903 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals @ 7:05 ET - Jerad Eickhoff is off a great start at home and also pitched well in his other appearance at home this season. However, though his most recent outing was impressive he faced a very bad Marlins lineup. Note that in his prior start Eickhoff allowed 4 earned runs on 7 hits and 4 walks in 6 innings of work. He does have good stuff and gets a lot of strikeouts but now he faces a Nationals team that has scored 25 runs in their last two games at Citizens Bank Park. Of course I am aware of the Nationals being without Ryan Zimmerman and Anthony Rendon right now (and the fact that Juan Soto may not start again tonight) but there is still plenty of pop in this lineup. Also, Washington is simply loaded with confidence when facing the Phillies. They have hit very well in this park plus have fared well against Philadelphia's bullpen. The flip side of this equation is that Jeremy Hellickson was successful in his lone start against the Phillies this season. However, the Nationals right-hander will likely get hit harder as Philadelphia's lineup now gets a second look at him in a span of about 3 weeks. The over is 4-1 in the 5 meetings between these teams this season and, other than struggling against Hellickson, the Phils lineup averaged 6.5 runs per game in the other 4 games. As far as the bullpens here, the Nationals 5.87 ERA ranks them dead last in the NL. The Nats bullpen .269 BAA ranks them dead last in NL too. Who is 2nd to last in that category? The Phillies bullpen with a .265 BAA. The point is we should see runs early, often, and throughout this game. The over is 9-5 in Washington's night games this season as well as 9-5 in Nationals divisional games this year. The Phillies over is 4-1 this season when playing after a day off. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #957 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs St Louis Cardinals @ 4:05 ET - The odds makers are very sharp. When I first looked at the money line on this game I though to myself, "how can Stephen Strasburg and the Nationals only be in the -150 range"? Of course that was at first glance. Now, after analyzing it further it makes perfect sense. Now, that said, I still don't trust Dakota Hudson so I don't trust the underdog Cardinals either in this spot. But the direction I got pointed in was the over and I feel this is a very strong value play. The key to why this game was priced this way is because even though Strasburg appears to be back on track it has had more to do with whom he faced. His last two starts were against the Marlins and Padres. Note that prior to that he faced the Giants and struggled but the point is that those 3 teams are the 3 lowest scoring teams in the National League! On Thursday afternoon Strasburg now faces the highest scoring team in the National League! The over is 3-0 in his home starts this season and he has a 4.74 ERA in those outings. As for the Cards Hudson, none of his last 3 starts have resulted in an under and he has compiled a 7.53 ERA in those outings. Other factors that will help us here include the Nationals bullpen (6.02 ERA) ranking as the worst in the National League and also the Washington weather (temperatures in the 80s and possible breeze blowing out to right). The over is 8-4 in Cardinals day games this season. The over is 7-0 in Nationals games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. As of early this morning there is still some 8.5 available on this one and, even those of you getting a 9 should not worry as I fully expect double digits in runs in this one! 10* OVER the total in Washington

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #955 Thursday 8* OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies @ 1:10 ET - We're getting line value on this total because Christian Yelich may again be out of the lineup this afternoon and because of the long-term reputation of each of these starters. The fact is that the Rockies Jon Gray is coming off a very rough start and he also has been rocked in 2 of his last 3 starts against Milwaukee. As for Brewers starter Freddy Peralta, he has been announced as healthy and ready to return but I always like to challenge guys in a spot like this. Not only did Peralta get rocked in each of his last two starts before dropping out of the rotation, he's now facing a Colorado lineup that exploded for 11 runs in yesterday's win. The over is 5-1 this season in Milwaukee's home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The Brewers, even without Yelich, have scored at least 4 runs in each of the last 3 games. That said, a 4-4 game guarantees us of no less than a 5-4 final and a winning over ticket here as this total has dropped from an opener of a 9 down to an 8.5 as of early Thursday AM. With both starting pitchers having some question marks and the fact that yesterday's game totaled 15 runs, I certainly like the odds that this game gets at least 9 runs and truly I expect double digits in runs in this one. 8* OVER the total in Milwaukee

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #923 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Yankees @ 3:40 ET - After yesterday's pitchers duel between CC Sabathia and Zack Greinke, look for a much different type of game today. The Yankees hand the ball to Masahiro Tanaka and his pitches generated a lot of contact in his most recent start. He had been pitching well prior to that start but the fact Tanaka struggled to get any swings and misses at his stuff against a struggling Angels lineup is absolutely a sign he should get rocked again today. That said, there is great line value here with this total posted at only 8 runs. This is particularly true because I also do not expect much success for the Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly. The Arizona right-hander had been pitching in Korea the past 4 seasons. He started this season strong in his first two starts but faced lineups that were slumping at the time. Speaking of struggling lineups, the Pirates are the team Kelly faced in his most recent start and that helped lead to a successful outing. But in his two prior starts Kelly allowed 7 earned runs on 14 hits and 8 walks in less than 9 innings of work. That said, he is being vastly over-rated at this early point in the season and, based on what I expect out of he and Tanaka today, this total is an absolute bargain at only 8 runs. Even with yesterday's result including, the Yankees are 11-3 to the over in road games this season. Also, the Diamondbacks have scored an average of 6 runs per game their past 8 games and haven't had back to back unders in over a week and a half. That won't change here either! 10* OVER the total in Arizona

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #911 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Oakland A's @ 1:05 ET - Michael Fiers gets the start for the Athletics and he has a 7.03 ERA on the season. Though he is off a solid start it came against a Blue Jays team that is dead last in the AL for on base percentage so far this season. Hector Velazquez gets the start for the Red Sox and he has a 5.91 ERA in his career against the A's. Also, the Boston right-hander has not pitched more than 3 and 1/3 innings in any of his 3 starts this season and that could expose a Red Sox bullpen that has been only mediocre this season. Additionally, the Oakland bullpen also ranks only in the middle of the pack this season for ERA. The A's had a bad day at the plate yesterday in the 5-1 loss but the 5 times this season they have been held to 1 run or less the over is 3-1-1 in their next game. The over is 2-1 this season when the Red Sox are off a game where they allowed 1 run or less. Oakland's Wednesday games are 4-1 to the over and A's day games are 7-3-1 to the over this season. 8* OVER the total in Boston

Game of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Game #961 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Oakland A's @ 7:10 ET - Chilly weather at Fenway Park in Boston Tuesday evening but that won't be enough to help these two struggling hurlers. Aaron Brooks shut down the Red Sox in Oakland on the first day of this month. But since then he has a 6.86 ERA in his last 4 starts and Brooks now makes his first ever appearance at Fenway Park. The Red Sox are starting to hit the ball much better since returning home. There were a couple exceptions when they faced tough pitchers like Morton and Glasnow but in their other 3 home games the past 6 days Boston has averaged 9 runs per game including a 9-run outburst yesterday. They should have no trouble with the offerings of Brooks. Give him credit for an amazing first start this season against the Red Sox but their bats were really struggling early this season. Not only has Brooks struggled since then, he also has a career .289 batting average against at the MINOR league level. I do not mean to be disrespectful but when guys have been hit at nearly a .300 clip through all levels of minor league ball from rookie league all the way up they generally prove to struggle facing major league hitters! As for Red Sox starter Rick Porcello, he is off a RARE solid start but he faced the Tigers. He now faces an Oakland team that has averaged 5 runs per game their last 8 games and scored 4 or more runs in 6 of those 8 games. Porcello faced the A's once last season and got knocked around for 5 earned runs in 6 innings. This is a hurler whom has struggled with the long ball and allowed 2 homers in that start against Oakland too. Porcello is getting hit at .347 clip this season! Also, the Red Sox bullpen has a 4.74 ERA at home and the Athletics bullpen has a 5.21 ERA on the road so far this season. As you can see per the above, we should see runs early, often, and throughout this game! The over is 8-4 in Oakland's road games this season and the Red Sox are 5-0 to the over in Porcello's starts this season. 10* OVER the total in Boston

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #913 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros @ 7:40 ET - When teams get a quick 2nd look at starting pitchers it almost always favors the hitters. That's because they just saw the offerings of that hurler and can be better adjusted the 2nd time around. This total is being kept low because Justin Verlander is a high quality pitcher. As a result, I like the value we're getting here with this total at just 8.5 runs as of early Monday morning. The Twins have been swinging the bats well and also will be at home this time against Verlander. That does make a difference. Minnesota won 4-1 yesterday and that marked the 11th time in their last 12 games that they've scored at least 4 runs. As for the Astros, they also are off a 4-1 win yesterday and that marked the 8th time in their last 10 games that they've scored at least 4 runs. Keep in mind, getting each team to 4 runs here guarantees us of no less than a 5-4 final and that equates to a winning ticket with this over. The Twins have a .515 slugging percentage against right-handed pitchers this season and that ranks them #1 out of all 30 teams in the majors! The Astros are hitting .271 on the season overall and that ranks them #1 out of all 30 teams in the majors! Though Jake Odorizzi held Houston to just 2 earned runs last week he was fortunate as he allowed 8 hits in less than 6 innings of work and only had 2 strikeouts! He has now given up 7 earned runs in 10 and 1/3 innings in his last 2 starts against the Astros plus he allowed 3 homers in the process. The Twins have scored an average of 6.6 runs per game their last 9 games. Houston has scored an average of 5.5 runs per game their last 10 games. The over is 8-4 in Twins night games this season. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #975 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers @ 4:10 ET - Lance Lynn had a 4.77 ERA and I watched many of his starts and it certainly could have been much worse. That is why the right-hander is bouncing around as this is his 4th team now in recent seasons as he has been with the Cardinals, Twins, Yankees, and now the Rangers. The right-hander is getting pummeled this season at a .302 clip and I expect the Mariners to pound him after getting embarrassed in yesterday's 15-1 loss to Texas. The over is 6-2-1 in Seattle's last 9 games. Prior to yesterday's ugly defeat, the Mariners had scored an average of 6.3 runs per game in their 8 previous games. The Rangers lineup comes into this one red hot. Texas has averaged scoring 6.2 runs per game their last 16 games. The Rangers have scored an average of 6.5 runs on 10.3 hits in their last 8 games. They'll take advantage of a young hurler whom is over-rated right now. Yes Erik Swanson has good early numbers but he has only made two starts. The young right-hander struggled in his 2nd start versus the Padres after excelling in his first start versus the Indians. The fact is that the San Diego team and Cleveland team he faced are two of the worst offenses in MLB early this season. Now he faces a Rangers team that has been one of the highest-scoring teams in the majors. Which team has scored the most runs? The Mariners! And also these two teams have a bullpen ERA that ranks each of them among the worst in the majors. All signs point to a high-scoring game here. 10* OVER the total in Seattle

Early Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #955 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies @ 1:20 ET - A pair of struggling hurlers square off and they're facing lineups that have been surging at the plate. The Rockies Tyler Anderson is winless with a 12.00 ERA in his three starts this season. The Braves Kevin Gausman has give up 4 or more earned runs in 2 of his last 3 starts. Though he might be expected to bounce back at home in this one after a rough road start at Cincinnati, Gausman will be making his first afternoon start of the season. In 2017, Gausman went 2-5 with a 5.71 ERA and .299 BAA in his 10 day game starts. Fluke? No, in 2018 Gausman went 3-4 with a 5.23 ERA and a .287 BAA in his 10 day game starts. Now he faces a Rockies team that has scored 7 or more runs in 4 of its last 5 games. Of course all 4 of those games went over the total. As for the Braves lineup, they've produced an average of 5.4 runs per game their last 8 games. The over has gone 6-2 in those 8 games and we're dealing with a value priced total here at 9 runs. We just need to get each team to 4 runs and we can do no worse than a push. The Braves have scored at least 4 runs in 6 of their last 8 games. The Rockies have scored at least 4 runs in 11 of their last 12 games. The over is 8-4 the last dozen times Colorado is off a win. The over is 5-1 the last 6 times the Braves faced a left-handed starter. 8* OVER the total in Atlanta

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #922 Saturday 10* Top Play Boston Red Sox Money Line (-) vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 4:05 ET - The Rays are attracting attention from the market place today because Tampa Bay is at the top of the AL East right now while the Red Sox are near the basement. However, there are a number of reasons to like Boston at a very reasonable price in this one. For one thing, the Rays Charlie Morton has a history of struggles against the Red Sox. After allowing 5 earned runs in 6 innings versus Boston at Tropicana Field last Saturday, Morton now has a 5.74 ERA and has been hit at a .303 clip in his last 3 starts against the Red Sox. Also, a little rest is good but too much can be bad for a hitters timing. The off day yesterday due to the rainout may very well help Boston as they were in action Thursday versus Detroit. However, the Rays timing at the plate could be thrown off as they already had the prior day scheduled as an off day so now they'll be playing for the first time since Wednesday! As for Boston's David Price, the southpaw has been fantastic at Fenway Park. He dominated with 7 scoreless innings in his only start here this season and he entered this season having gone 20-6 with a 3.43 ERA the past 3 seasons in his starts here! He entered this season 4-2 with a 2.97 ERA in his last 11 games (10 starts) against the Rays and held them to a .211 average in those games. Price held them to just 5 hits while striking out 10 in 5 innings at Tampa Bay Sunday. He can dominate them again. Also, while the Red Sox have injury issues at 2nd base, it has been Michael Chavis whom has filled in. The last 3 games he has reached base 6 times in 12 at bats while hitting .333 and slugging 2 homers! In other words, the Red Sox are doing just fine at 2nd base and everyone else is healthy and the BoSox have scored 18 runs their past two games and building confidence. I look for their roll to continue here. 10* BOSTON

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #901 Saturday 8* OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds @ 2:15 ET - The wind will be blowing out toward left at Busch Stadium and relatively mild temperatures as well so the hitters should have a big afternoon. The Reds have additional confidence after exploding for 12 runs in last night's win which was their 6th victory in their last 8 games. They have scored 4 or more runs in 5 of those 6 wins and, keep in mind, 4 is our key number here. That's because if each team gets to 4 runs we are guaranteed of at least a 5-4 game meaning we can't lose this total - currently posted at 9 runs as of early game day morning. The Cardinals should have no trouble getting to 4 runs as, prior to yesterday, St Louis had scored 4 or more runs in 10 straight games! In fact, St Louis averaged 6.8 runs per game during this stretch. The Cards hammered Tyler Mahle when they saw him last season as they got to him for 5 earned runs in 5 and 1/3 innings. Also, the Reds right-hander enters this start having been rocked for 4 earned runs in each of his past two outings. The Cardinals Dakota Hudson is also likely to struggle. The St Louis right-hander has allowed 9 earned runs in less than 9 innings of work spanning his last two starts. Hudson has had some issues with command of his pitches as well. The over is 6-2 this season when St Louis is off a loss. Also, the Cardinals are 14-6 to the over this season when facing a right-handed starter and also 8-3 to the over in day games. 8* OVER the total in St Louis

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #957 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies @ 7:20 ET - This is a contrarian play all the way and it is the type of situation I love as we get extra line value due to market perception. This total opened up at a 9 but dropped to an 8.5 because of the fact that the Braves Max Fried and the Rockies Antonio Senzatela both have good numbers this season. Keep in mind it is still very early in the season though and Senzatela has made only two starts. One was against the light-hitting Padres at pitcher-friendly San Diego and in his other start Senzatela did allow 4 earned runs in 6 innings against a Phillies team that otherwise has been struggling at the plate of late. As for Fried, yes he has great numbers early this season but his most recent outing was against an Indians team that has ranked among the worst in the majors at the plate early this season and he still allowed 7 hits and walked 3 in 6 and 1/3 innings. The Rockies just saw him for the first time about two weeks ago so getting a 2nd look at Fried will prove to be an advantage tonight. As for Senzatela, he faced the Braves last season and had more walks than strikeouts plus allowed 2 earned runs in 5 innings. The rematch is likely to be worse as Atlanta enters this game having averaged 6 runs and 11 hits per game in their last 5 games. The Rockies also have been swinging the bats better as they have won 8 of their last 10 games and averaged scoring 5.5 runs per game in the process. The point is that we can take advantage of a low total here thanks to market perception. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #909 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers @ 7:10 ET - I had the over in this match-up yesterday and, admittedly, caught a break. The game had a decent start in terms of run production but then stalled until the Red Sox had a huge bottom of the 8th. However, rather than shy away from coming right back with the same play (because of getting fortunate) I actually am recommending to again invest in the same play between the same teams today. One of the keys is that the Tigers bullpen has been a strength this season but yesterday's performance absolutely could be a sign of things to come. Likewise, the Red Sox bats have been slow to get going this season but yesterday's 11 runs scored absolutely could be the catalyst for the Boston bats to get hot. That said, the fact this total dropped to a 9 this morning offers value also as now we just need each team to get to 4 runs and we can't lose the play. Note that the Tigers have scored 4 or more runs in 4 straight games. Also, Detroit is averaging 5 runs per game in their last 6 games. The Red Sox have scored 4 or more runs in 5 of their last 6 games and have scored an average of 5.5 runs per game in those 6 games. Boston's Rick Porcello may have extra motivation going against his former team but that didn't help him the last time he faced Detroit. The Tigers got to him for 11 hits in 6 innings when he most recently faced them. Porcello gives up too many homers and that has continued this season and has played a role in his winless record and 8.49 ERA on the season. The Tigers Jordan Zimmerman also has struggled as he is winless with a 4.94 ERA on the season. He started the season well but has a 9.22 ERA in his last 3 starts. Zimmerman's last two starts at Fenway Park have seen him allow 9 earned runs in less than 9 innings of work! The over is 3-0 in Zimmerman's last 3 starts and 4-0 in Porcello's starts this season but 2-0 in Porcello's last two starts against the Tigers. Detroit is a long-term 27-12 to the over in Thursday games and the Red Sox are 3-0 to the overs in Thursday games this season. Lot of perfect edges here! 10* OVER the total in Boston

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #969 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers @ 7:10 ET - The Tigers are loaded with confidence after earning the sweep yesterday. Detroit has now won 4 of its last 5 games and averaged 11 hits per game in these 5 contests. The Tigers pounded out a dozen hits in each game of the twinbill yesterday. That included Detroit giving the Red Sox beleaguered bullpen plenty of trouble yesterday. Boston's bullpen ERA ranks them among the worst in the majors this season as they are far off the mark from where they were last season. I do look for the BoSox bats to bounce back today and that is why I expect this game to fly over the total because Detroit should stay hot at the plate as well. The Tigers will be facing Eduardo Rodriguez and the over is 3-1 in his 4 starts this season as he has compiled a 7.20 ERA. The Red Sox will be facing Tyson Ross in this one. I am well aware that Ross has some decent numbers early this season but as he continues to throw hanging sliders, more and more damage will be done to his offerings. Ross has given up 9 runs in 12 innings in his last two starts but it is a bit "hidden" due to some unearned runs. He did allow 2 homers in his last start and, prior to that, Ross had more walks than strikeouts in his prior start. Also, his strikeout numbers are down in his last two starts. Both teams also had to use extra bullpen arms yesterday due to the double header. The wind is expected to be blowing out toward right field in this one at Fenway Park. The over is a long-term 53-35 (including 2-0 this season) in Detroit's games against southpaw starters. The over is 5-1 in Rodriguez's last 6 starts dating back to September of last season. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Boston

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals @ 3:10 ET - Anibal Sanchez will be starting a game at Coors Field for just the 3rd time in his long career. The last time he started a game here he was fortunate to escape damage as he allowed 7 hits in 5 innings. The prior start he had here he was also fortunate that damage wasn't worse as he allowed 3 homers but all were solo bombs. On a mild afternoon at Coors Field, the ball will be carrying very well and I expect this to be the start where Sanchez gives up a lot of hits including multiple homers all in the same game. The result will be an ugly afternoon for him and, keep in mind, behind him is a Nationals bullpen that is dead last in the majors with a 6.97 ERA. As for the Rockies, they are starting German Marquez. He has faced Washington twice in his career and the lone start against them at Coors Field was a disaster as the Nationals got to him for 8 earned runs in just 4 innings. The Nats enter this game having scored 5 or more runs in 3 straight games. The Rockies, prior to yesterday's loss, had won 7 of their past 8 games and averaged 5.4 runs per game during that stretch. Getting each team to 5 runs here would not be a shock at all and a 5-5 game has to end with at least 11 runs scored. This total dropped from an 11 to a 10.5 and I am grabbing the value with the over in this one. The over is 3-0 this season in Washington's Wednesday games. Look for another one here! 8* OVER the total in Colorado

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #905 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 7:10 ET - The Phillies are without a couple of guys in their lineup right now but they still have plenty of solid hitters and sluggers up and down the lineup. After managing just 3 hits in last night's 5-1 loss to the Mets, look for the Phils sticks to bounce back in New York tonight. However, Zach Eflin gets the call on the mound for Philadelphia and he has not fared well at Citi Field. He is winless in his 3 career starts there and that includes compiling an ugly 10.13 ERA at Citi Field last year. The Mets are averaging a solid 6 runs per game in their home games this season and should get to Eflin here. However, New York's starting pitcher, Zack Wheeler is also likely to struggle. The Phillies just saw him last week and though he fared quite well he did allow two homers. Also, the last time Wheeler faced the Phils at Citi Field, they got to him for 10 baserunners (7 hits, 3 walks) in less than 5 innings of work. 2 of Eflin's last 3 starts versus the Mets have resulted in an over. Though Wheeler's start against the Phillies last week resulted in an under, the over was previously 7-3 in his 10 prior starts against Philadelphia. The over is 9-2 in Mets night games this season and 8-3 in Mets games against teams with a winning record. That includes last night's under and so do these stats: the Phillies are 10-5 to the over in divisional games this season and also 9-5 to the over in night games this season. 10* OVER the total in New York Mets

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #959 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:05 ET - The White Sox (5.04 ERA) and Orioles (6.55 ERA) have two of the worst bullpens in the majors so far this season. Also, this total first opened up at a 10.5 yesterday afternoon but has now dropped to a 9.5 as of game day morning. Chicago starter Manny Banuelos is making his first start since 2015 as he has been working out of the bullpen. Baltimore starter David Hess had a great first start this season but then went 0-3 with a 9.24 ERA in his 3 starts that followed. Last season Hess went 3-10 with a 4.88 ERA so the long-term certainly shows his early strong outing versus the Blue Jays this year is the exception rather than the norm. The over is 4-2 in White Sox road games with a money line between +125 and -125. The over is 9-5 this season in Chicago's games against right-handed starters. The Baltimore over is 9-1 this season in home games. The Orioles over is also 8-3 this season in night games. The O's entered yesterday's action having averaged 5 runs per game at home this season. The White Sox entered yesterday's action having averaged 6.5 runs per game on the road this season. With the extra line value thanks to the drop on this total, this one gets my top play rating. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #923 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros @ 3:05 ET - The Rangers continue to swing the bats quite well at home. Even against Gerrit Cole yesterday, though they struck out a lot, Texas pounded out big hits and sent the opposing starter to an early exit. The Astros Colin McHugh is also likely to get hit hard here and, at the same time, the Rangers Shelby Miller has little shot of keeping the Houston sticks in check. Houston already saw the Texas right-hander early this month and Miller was fortunate he allowed only 2 earned runs as he walked 5 and allowed 5 hits in less than 4 innings of work. The Astros have stayed under the total in just 21 of their last 59 Sunday games. The Rangers have scored an average of nearly 7 runs per game in their last 7 home games. The over is 9-5 when Texas is a home dog of +175 or more. The over is 4-2 this season in Rangers games against teams with a winning record this season. Also, the over is a perfect 2-0 in Miller's home starts this season. McHugh has allowed 14 hits in 9 and 1/3 innings in his last two starts in Arlington. Both those starts went over the total and also each of Miller's two starts against the Astros in his career have gone over the total. Warm weather and strong south winds at Globe Life Park in Arlington also helps to produce hitter-friendly conditions here. 10* OVER the total in Texas

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #915 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins @ 1:05 ET - Decent weather in Baltimore for this one and two starting pitchers likely to struggle. The Twins Kyle Gibson has a 7.36 ERA this season and has allowed 3 homers in his last 3 starts against the Orioles. Baltimore's Dylan Bundy allowed the most homers in the AL last season and he enters this start having allowed 7 homers in his last 3 games so his long-term trending (giving up too many homers) is certainly staying strong. The Orioles are a perfect 9-0 to the over in home games this season. The numbers are incredible as Baltimore's home games aren't just sneaking over the total either. The Orioles last 7 home games have averaged 15.3 runs per game! The Twins are 7-2 to the over this season in road games. The Orioles bullpen has been the worst in the American League this season and Minnesota also ranks in the bottom half of the majors. 8* OVER the total in Baltimore

Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #961 Saturday MLB 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Colorado Rockies @ 8:10 ET - The Phillies are off a bad beat yesterday as they took the lead in the top of the 12th and then lost it in the bottom of the 12th. Philadelphia outhit the Rockies by a huge margin yesterday but Philly stranded far too many men on base. Look for a bounce back here with Aaron Nola over Antonio Senzatela in this one. Nola has not been his typical dominant self early this season but that has led to line value in this spot as the Phillies are only a small road favorite even though Nola has enjoyed success against the Rockies including a start at Coors Field. Senzatela faced Philadelphia late last September and allowed 5 hits and walked 3 in less than 5 innings of work so he was fortunate to allow only 1 earned run. Nola has struck out 17 and allowed only 10 hits in his 13 and 2/3 innings of work versus the Rockies in his career. Phillies are off B2B losses and have yet to lose 3 straight this season. Colorado has won 5 straight but previously had lost 12 of 13 prior games. Though Senzatela had a strong first start it came against a Padres team that has one of the lowest batting averages in the majors this season. The Phillies rank among the top teams in the National League for road batting average on the season with a .272 mark thus far. Philly is 10-6 this season against right-handed starters. The Rockies entered this series having gone 0-5 in home games this season. Having won 2 straight since, I don't see it reaching 3 straight. Better lineup, better starting pitcher, and not a big difference between these bullpens. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Top Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #917 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:05 ET - I have been burned by the Yankees totals recently but the 3rd time will be the charm. Now things are getting over-adjusted by the markets and that leads to great value in a spot like this. The total on Friday's game is down to an 8.5 and this is even though temperatures will be rather mild and a steady wind is expected to be blowing out to left field at Yankee Stadium tonight. With good hitting conditions in the Bronx tonight and needing just 4 runs from each team in this one to guarantee a winner (game can't end 4-4 so we'd get at least 9 runs) this is a must play in my book. CC Sabathia had a great first start last week to open up his season but one should never over-react to just one outing. Also, the southpaw is facing a Royals team that has scored 4 or more runs in 7 of its last 9 games after yesterday's 6-1 win. I expect KC to stay hot and score their fair share of runs. The Royals confidence is growing as they have won 4 of their last 6 games. The Yankees had scored an average of nearly 6 runs per game in their 9 games prior to yesterday's poor effort. I look for the Bronx Bombers to bounce back strong against the Royals Jakob Junis tonight. The Kansas City right-hander has a 6.61 ERA and a .304 batting average against this season. He has consistently allowed 3 or more earned runs in all 4 of his starts. In their first 18 games this season, KC had just 6 unders. After last night's game stayed under the total, look for "normal" to resume tonight and take advantage of this low total. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #965 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals @ 6:35 ET - It is true that Homer Bailey is off arguably his best start since the 2017 season. However, the Royals right-hander faced an Indians lineup that continues to function as one of the worst hitting teams in the majors. Likewise, Yankees right-hander Domingo German has great numbers in his first two starts but he faced the two teams projected to be the two worst teams in the AL this season as he squared off with Baltimore and Detroit. Of course Kansas City is also projected to have a rough season too but don't be surprised when they enjoy success against German in the Bronx. The Royals got a big 4-3 win in 10 innings yesterday and confidence is a little higher than usual as KC has won 4 of its last 6 games and also averaged scoring 5 runs per game in its last 8 games. The Yankees also come into this game with a boost of momentum after a 2-game sweep of the rival Red Sox that saw the Bronx Bombers score 13 runs in the two games. The Yankees lineup has produced an average of 6 runs per game their last 11 games. Just on sheer averages alone you can see why it wouldn't surprise me to see a 6-5 type game here and, keep in mind, with the total at just a 9 we only need to get each team to get to 4 runs to guarantee we won't lose the play as it would have to end at least 5-4. I am actually expecting each team to get to 5 in this one on a rather pleasant evening weather-wise in the Bronx tonight. 10* OVER the total in the New York Yankees game

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #915 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox @ 6:35 ET - This total opened up at a 9.5 but has dropped to a 9 as many don't trust the Boston bats. Certainly they have struggled early this season and the Red Sox enter this game having scored a total of just 1 run in their last 2 games. However, that has led to great value here with the over and, in typical contrarian fashion, I am fading the line move. The fact is that the Yankees J.A. Happ could be just what the doctor ordered in terms of the remedy for the Boston bats. The New York southpaw is winless with an 8.76 ERA in his first 3 starts this season. Also, Happ has allowed 8 earned runs in the 9 innings spanning his last two starts against the Red Sox. As for Boston starter Nathan Eovaldi, he has had success in recent starts versus the Yankees. However, he is not right early this season. Eovaldi is winless with an 8.40 ERA in his first 3 starts this year. Now he faces a Yankees team that has scored 6 or more runs in 3 of their last 5 games after they erupted for 8 runs in yesterday's blowout win. In fact, the Yanks have averaged 6.1 runs per game in their last 10 games. The over is 3-0 in Happ's starts this season as well as 3-0 in Eovaldi's starts this season. Only 4 of Boston's first 12 road games have resulted in an under. I look for the over to improve to 5-2 this season in Red Sox games against southpaw starters. Also, the Yankees over in divisional games is set to improve to 6-2 on the season. Look for both starters to struggle and the weather is certainly decent for mid-April in the Bronx. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #969 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:40 ET - The Twins have been swinging the bats quite well early this season except at home but that had a lot to do with typical cold spring weather in Minnesota. However, temperatures today in Minneapolis are warming well into the 60s and a bounce back at the plate is expected. Yes Aaron Sanchez has some impressive numbers early this season. However, it must be noted that the Blue Jays right-hander started the season by facing the Tigers and Indians. Those are the two bottom teams in the American League for batting average so far this season. Sanchez then faced the Red Sox but even they are struggling at the plate early this season. However, Boston did get him to for 4 runs (but only 1 was earned) as he labored quite a bit with 4 walks and 5 hits in his 5 innings of work. Sanchez gave up 4 earned runs in 6 innings with more walks than strikeouts when he faced the Twins here in Minnesota last season. As for Twins starter Kyle Gibson, he is off to a very rough start this season. Gibson has a 7.71 ERA in his two starts this season and also a 5.73 ERA in his last two starts against the Blue Jays. The Toronto lineup is not a great one but they're building confidence as they've shown a knack for getting big hits. That is part of the reason the Jays have averaged 5.3 runs per game their last 6 games. The Twins have averaged 6.6 runs per game their last 5 games. The over is 39-19 when Toronto is a road dog in a range of +125 to +175. The over is 4-1 in Twins night games this season. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota

Top Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #915 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels @ 8:05 ET - The Rangers bats are coming to life at home. They do hit the ball very well at home as a general rule thanks to the hitter-friendly home ball park they play in. On Monday temperatures will warm into the 80s in the Arlington area so it will be a mild evening for baseball and the hitters should again prevail. The Angels might even have Mike Trout back for this game but, even if they don't, look for them to build off Saturday's 6-5 win at Chicago against the Cubs. The pitching match-up here is conducive to plenty of runs. Trevor Cahill gets the start for the Angels here and he had an ERA north of 6.00 on the road last season. Also, the last time he faced the Rangers he walked 6 in less than 3 innings. That was a home start for him too. The last two times he has faced them at Texas he has allowed a total of 8 earned runs in 10 innings. The point is that this is not a good match-up for him and all 3 of those meetings occurred last season. As for Rangers starter Shelby Miller, he just faced the Angels a week ago and he struggled with command and allowed 4 earned runs in just 2 innings of work. Miller's only other start this season saw him also struggle badly with his command and behind him is an unimpressive Rangers bullpen. Just like Friday's 8-6 Rangers loss and Sunday's 8-7 Rangers win, don't be surprised when another slugfest breaks out at Globe Life Park in Arlington in hitter-friendly conditions. 10* OVER the total in Texas

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #975 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Oakland A's @ 3:05 ET - A cold front moved through yesterday which is what led to the rain and severe storms that caused the cancellation of Saturday's game. Even though it will be cool in Arlington Sunday afternoon it won't be cold by any means and the wind blowing out at about a 10 mph clip also helps our over here. Brian Anderson gets the start for the A's and is over-valued right now. He has decent stats on the season but that was helped by, in his opener, facing an Angels lineup that has been stone cold. Since then, Anderson has actually been hit hard and had some command issues in his two April starts. He has managed to work out of the jams so far but that is helping lead to him being overvalued here. Keep in mind the Oakland southpaw went 2-4 with a 6.06 ERA in road starts last season! The Rangers counter with Adrian Sampson and he is making just the 6th start of his young career. The right-hander is 0-5 with a 4.10 ERA and has been hit at a .280 clip at the MLB level. The Texas bullpen has struggled this season and ranks in the lower third of the majors. The A's pen ranks in the middle of the pack but the Rangers .462 slugging percentage in home games ranks them 3rd in the AL this season! Oakland has a sizzling hot .533 slugging percentage in road games this season which ranks them 4th in the majors this season! Just like Friday's 8-6 A's win, don't be surprised when another slugfest breaks out at Globe Life Park in Arlington in hitter-friendly conditions. 10* OVER the total in Texas 

Run Line Rout - Rickenbach MLB Game #951 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 runs @ Miami Marlins @ 1:10 ET - The Phillies got trounced 10-3 yesterday by one of the worst teams in baseball. Look for a respond today. The Marlins are 6-15 when off a game in which they scored 10 or more runs. Don't be surprised if the bats return to their normal struggling ways. Miami caught lightning in a bottle yesterday and everything went their way as they totaled more hits in that game than in their 4 prior games COMBINED! The Phillies of course are a pricey money line favorite here but that is why I am going with the run line here. Philadelphia has to win by 2 or more runs to cash the ticket but note that 6 of their 8 wins have come by a multiple run margin. As for the Marlins, 8 of their 11 losses have come by 2 or more runs. Vincent Velasquez is off a solid start versus the Nationals and he is 4-2 with a 3.18 ERA against Miami the past 3 seasons. He held the Marlins to a .219 batting average and averaged 1 strikeout per inning in those outings and those Miami lineups were stronger than this season's version. As for the Marlins starter today, Jose Urena is off to a rough start this season and it is a long-term trend of his with poor early-season outings. Urena is now 0-7 with a 5.97 ERA in his March and April starts cumulatively. The Phillies are 29-14 long-term as a favorite of -150 or more. Also, the Phils are 3-1 this season when off a loss. Look for a big bounce back effort here as their long-term domination of the Marlins resumes. 8* PHILADELPHIA Run Line -1.5 runs

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #909 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets @ 7:20 ET - Yesterday's game was 6-2 by the middle innings but finished that way and stayed under the total. I don't expect a repeat of that here. These two teams each rank in the lower half of the league for bullpen ERA so far this season. Also this match-up features a pair of unimpressive southpaw starters and the Braves are ranked 6th out of 30 for slugging percentage versus lefties this season while the Mets are ranked 6th out of 30 for batting average versus lefties this season! Both teams should swing the bats well and Jason Vargas is pitching on long rest. That is something that plagued the Mets lefty last season. The Braves Sean Newcomb is off a strong start but it came against the downtrodden Marlins. His prior outing was against the Cubs and he was very fortunate to not allow a run as he allowed TEN baserunners in only FOUR innings! Even with yesterday's result included, the Mets are still 9-3-1 to the over this season. Also, all 3 of their games against a left-handed starter have gone over the total and only 1 of the Braves 4 games this season against a southpaw starter has resulted in an under. Look for double digits here in this one! 10* OVER the total in Atlanta

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #915 Saturday 8* OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles @ 1:05 ET - I liked the over in this match-up yesterday but stayed away due to weather concerns. That ended up being the right choice as the game totaled 15 runs but was a rain-shortened 7-inning final so any totals plays were no action. In any event, today we have no threat of rain and I expect the hot hitting to continue. Temperatures are warming into the 70s today in the Bronx and a light breeze will be blowing out toward left-center field as well. Great conditions for the hitters. CC Sabathia gets the start for the Yankees and he is getting a late start to this season due some health concerns. I don't expect him to be 100% right out of the gate and the scrappy White Sox, including scoring 9 in just 7 innings yesterday, have scored 5 or more runs in 7 of their last 11 games. The over is 9-2-1 in their 12 games this season with the lone "push" being yesterday's "no action" result. I expect the Yankees to score plenty here as they face former teammate Ivan Nova. Not only has New York scored an average of 6.7 runs per game their last 6 games, Nova got absolutely crushed in his most recent start. Nova also compiled a 5.42 ERA and .286 BAA in away games last season. That is nothing new as he went 3-12 with an ugly 5.02 ERA in road games in 2017. Look for the Yankees (5-1-1 to the over L7 games) to pound him this afternoon as the high-scoring trending continues for both these teams. By the way, these bullpens (particularly the White Sox) have had their share of struggles this season. 8* OVER the total in New York Yankees

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #967 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:10 ET - There were 4 homers hit in yesterday's game (Red Sox hosting Blue Jays) and the ball will be carrying very well again tonight. Chilly weather but a southerly breeze and that means another power display quite likely tonight. The Orioles David Hess had a good first start this season but that came against Toronto (hitting .198 on season). In his next start he gave up 3 homers to the Yankees. In his last two starts against the Red Sox, Hess has allowed 10 earned runs and 5 homers in just 8 innings of work! He'll be opposed by Eduardo Rodriguez and the southpaw is struggling badly early this season. The lefty has allowed 11 earned runs in only 8 innings of work spanning his first two starts. His most recent starts against the Orioles make it look, on the surface at least, like he dominated. However, Rodriguez actually allowed 17 hits in 11 and 1/3 innings in his last two starts versus Baltimore and he was fortunate to get out of jams. The way he has pitched early this season, and considering the hitter-friendly conditions expected at Fenway tonight, I don't expect Rodriguez to be so successful in getting out of jams tonight. The Orioles have won 4 of their last 5 road games and averaged 5 runs per game in those 4 victories away from home. Overall, entering this game, Baltimore has averaged 5.5 runs per game their last 4 games. The Red Sox are averaging 6 runs per game in their first two home games of the season and I foresee a breakout game tonight for the BoSox sticks after rallying from a 5-0 deficit for the win yesterday. 10* OVER the total in Boston

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #977 Friday 8* OVER the total in Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Angels @ 2:20 ET - Even though the temperature will only be near 50 degrees for this one, the wind will be blowing very strong out of the south. These are the types of conditions, even if cool weather, that can lead to a home run derby type of game at Wrigley Field. The ball will carry very very well. I am aware of the Mike Trout injury situation for the Angels but, even if he misses this game, there is still plenty of pop in both lineups to make the pitchers pay on a day where normally routine fly balls can turn into homers! That is how favorable the wind is going to be at Wrigley this afternoon. Cole Hamels gets the start for the Cubs and I know he pitched well after coming to Chicago last season but most of his season last year was with the Rangers and he allowed 23 homers in 20 starts for them. I could see him struggling here (and yes I am aware of his long-term success against the Angels). The fact is he gave up 4 homers in his last 2 starts against LA. As for Los Angeles starter Tyler Skaggs, he went 1-5 with a 9.22 ERA in his 7 starts after the All Star break. In his only road start so far this season he was shaky and could not complete five innings. The Cubs are use to plenty of day games and are proving comfortable in that spot again this year already. Chicago has hit .299 with 7 homers in their 4 afternoon games this season. Angels bullpen has been great this season but tough conditions here for sure. As for Cubs bullpen, they have struggled badly with a 6.07 ERA. Home run derby here. 10* OVER the total in Chicago Cubs

Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #920 Thursday 10* Top Play Boston Red Sox Run Line -1.5 runs vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:10 ET - Even including their surprising 7-5 win to open up this series Tuesday, the Blue Jays are hitting just .193 thus far on the season. They were projected to be a bad team entering this season and they are living up to it so far. What was not expected was for the Red Sox to also be struggling early this season. But, keep in mind, the World Champs began the season with a tough West Coast road trip. Finally Tuesday was their first home game of the season. The fact they lost that game only strengthens the likelihood of a dominating Red Sox win here after yesterday's off-day. Of course I would never lay 2 to 1 odds on the money line but where we get value here is with the run line. Boston is available at even money by laying the 1.5 runs. I am aware that Aaron Sanchez is off to a strong start this season but he faced the Indians and Tigers. Each of those teams is hitting below .200 so far this season! Also, when Sanchez pitched at Fenway Park early last season in May he gave up 7 earned runs in just 5 innings. Boston's Nathan Eovaldi hasn't made a start against the Blue Jays since 2016. This is a big edge for him as there is a lack of familiarity for the Toronto hitters. Of course their roster has change a lot since then too and their current roster is a combined 1 for 16 against Eovaldi! Look for a dominating home win here (keep in mind Red Sox were best hitting team in MLB last year) and play the run line here. 10* BOSTON Run Line -1.5 runs

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #903 Thursday 8* OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 1:15 ET - Walker Buehler has good numbers versus the Cardinals in his young career but he has only lasted an average of 4 innings in his two starts this season. That is likely to continue here as he also didn't pitch much in spring training. That is why his velocity dipped in the 5th inning of his most recent start too. Buehler is still working up to full strength. He got hammered in his day game start this season and that should not come as a huge surprise. This is his 3rd season in the majors and so far he has been much better in night games than afternoon games as he has a 5.44 ERA in day games in his career. Buehler will really be challenged in this one too because the wind will be blowing out to left field at a very strong clip and we should see some homers this afternoon at Busch Stadium. The Dodgers lineup has induced more walks than any other team in the majors this season and that, plus the fact they have hammered him, makes this a bad match-up for Michael Wacha. The Cardinals right-hander is off a start in which he walked 8 batters. He is averaging a walk per inning so far this season in his two starts. When he does find the strike zone here he is likely to get roughed up as the Dodgers have had great success against him. As for the Cards sticks, they have managed to score at least 4 runs in all but 2 of their 12 games this season. Keep in mind, getting each team to 4 runs here guarantees us of no less than a 5-4 final and, behind Buehler (unlikely to pitch deep into this game) is a Dodgers bullpen that has had some struggles early this season. As for the Los Angeles sticks, they entered this series having scored an average of 8.4 runs per game on the year. After struggling in the first three games of this series, look for their bats to come alive here in very hitter friendly conditions at Busch Stadium and facing a pitcher struggling with his command. Wacha will make some "mistake pitches" here. 8* OVER the total in St Louis

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #959 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 7:45 ET - The Dodgers got shutout yesterday but they still rate as the top hitting team in the National League so far this season. Also, Los Angeles leads the majors in walks. Of course that means LA is a patient team at the plate and that could frustrate the Cardinals Jack Flaherty. I have a lot of respect for Flaherty's overall body of work in his young career but also strongly feel that he is just not right at the present time. Keep in mind he finished up last season with an ugly September. Now in his first two starts this season he has been getting into deep pitching counts and falling behind hitters and has been unable to work deep into games. This problem does not lend itself well to being able to enjoy success against this tough Dodgers lineup. I know Flaherty has had success against them in the past but he is not in top form right now and also it is expected to be mild weather in St Louis this evening with a decent breeze blowing out to left. As for the Dodgers Kenta Maeda, he is off a rough start at Coors Field. I know last year his home/road splits were nearly equal but in 2017 his road ERA was 3 runs highers than his home ERA. Especially now coming off a tough time at Colorado, look for the road issues to be apparent again tonight. The Cards have a number of hitters in their lineup that have enjoyed success against Maeda even though it has been in limited action. The Cardinals lineup has not been as potent as we're use to seeing with St Louis teams but their slugging percentage in night games still ranks them in the upper third of the majors. Also, the Cards have managed to score at least 4 runs in all but 2 of their 11 games this season. Keep in mind, getting each team to 4 runs here guarantees us of no less than a 5-4 final and, behind Maeda is a Dodgers bullpen that has had some struggles early this season. As for the Los Angeles sticks, they entered this season having scored an average of 8.4 runs per game on the year. After struggling in the first two games of this series, look for their bats to come alive here. 10* OVER the total in St Louis

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres @ 3:45 ET - These two pitchers, Nick Margevicius and Dereck Rodriguez, matched up on the 30th in San Diego and the game was a 3-2 final that stayed under the total. However, couple of keys as to why this game will play out much differently. First off that was an evening game. This is an afternoon game and temperatures will warm into the mid-60s and the wind will be blowing out at a good clip at Oracle Park in San Francisco. Second key is that in that first match-up there were a lot of hard hit balls but they were just hit right at people. Line drives, sharp grounders, etc. The point is that it is not as if Margevicius and Rodriguez were inducing a lot of soft contact or were piling up strikeouts. That simply was not the case. Margevicius did have 5 strikeouts in his 5-inning stint but now the rookie left-hander faces the Giants on the road. The third point here is that these hurlers are given these lineups a quick second look at them since they just faced them 10 days ago. With yesterday's 7-2 San Francisco win going over the total, the Giants have had just 1 under in their last 7 games and San Diego is now on a 6-2 run to the over. These certainly are not powerhouse lineups but that is also why you're dealing with a very low total posted on this game. Considering all of the above factors I am happy to step in and take advantage of the low total. 8* OVER the total in San Francisco

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #917 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Oakland A's @ 7:05 ET - This total opened up at a 10 and it has dropped down to a 9 as of early game day morning. I fully understand the line move as the wind is expected to be blowing in sharply from left field for this one. However, the game is about much more than just home runs. The teams combined for 16 runs yesterday but only 4 of the 26 hits were homers and two of those were solo blasts. The fact is that both teams should stay hot at the plate here. The Orioles are hitting .268 versus lefties this season and the A's are slugging .457 against southpaws this season. Oakland left-hander Brett Anderson got rocked for 4 earned runs in less than 4 innings in his most recent start at Camden Yards. Baltimore southpaw John Means is making his first ever MLB start. In his minor league career, including LOW LEVEL ball, he has been hit at a combined .275 clip. That includes .277 at the AAA level. His action has been limited at the MLB level but he has been hit at a .289 clip and that comes as no surprise. Off an ugly 12-4 loss yesterday, look for Oakland to jump on the young hurler early and often. The A's have had more than 10 hits in each of their last two games. The Orioles have averaged scoring 5 runs per game in games against left-handed starters this season. Oakland's Anderson allowed 12 baserunners in just 5 and 1/3 innings in his last start and that came at home too! The over is 4-2 in the Athletics last 6 games and 4-0 in the Orioles last 4 games. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #914 Tuesday 8* Boston Red Sox Run Line -1.5 vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 2:05 ET - Both these teams are 3-8 this season but these teams are truly at opposite ends of the spectrum. The Blue Jays are likely headed for a miserable season and adjusting to a new manager. Of course the Red Sox are the defending World Champs and their season got off to a tough start due to a West Coast trip that included battling with a red hot Mariners lineup. The last team to get a home game this season is Boston and it comes this afternoon at Fenway Park. There is a reason this game is priced so high on the money line which, by the way, I would never lay that price range on any game. Where we have value though is with the run line. Yes the Red Sox need to win by 2 or more runs but are lay amount is reduced to a normal price range of -115. Three of the Blue Jays four road losses this season have come by 2 or more runs. Toronto has not scored more than two runs in any of their four road games. Boston southpaw Chris Sale is 7-2 with a 2.20 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in his 12 career starts against the Blue Jays. Toronto's Matt Shoemaker is off to a surprisingly strong start this season but he faced two of the worst teams in baseball, the Tigers and Orioles. The last time Shoemaker started at Fenway Park he allowed 5 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work. Boston is 43-12 as a home favorite in a range of -175 to -250. The Red Sox are 38-13 in Tuesday games. Toronto is 9-22 as a road underdog of +175 to +250. The Blue Jays are 34-63 against left-handed starters. 8* BOSTON -1.5 RUNS

Rivalry Rout - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Monday 8* OVER the total in Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals @ 7:05 ET - In my opinion it is impossible to trust Vince Velasquez of the Phillies in this one. He is making his first start of 2019 and his recent body of work is scary bad. Velasquez wrapped up last season going 0-3 with a 10.70 ERA in his 5 September starts. He would surely shake it off this spring, right? Not if spring training is any indication! Velasquez got rocked and had a 12.79 ERA in his 3 starts. Now he faces a Nationals team that is really heating up at the plate! Washington has scored an average of 7 runs per game in their last 6 games against a right-handed starter. Look for the Phillies to match the Nats run for run in this one. They got to Anibal Sanchez for 4 runs in 4 innings last week. Also, Sanchez faced the Phillies each of his last two regular season starts last year! In other words, Philadelphia is certainly very familiar with his "stuff" and this is a Phillies lineup that had scored an average 8 runs per game in its first 6 games this season before being held to just 2 runs in each of its last two games. Facing a familiar starter (Sanchez) and a familiar bullpen that has struggled miserably this season, the Phillies sticks come right back to life here. The over is 4-1 in Phillies divisional games this season. The over is 6-1 in Washington's last 7 games. More of the same expected here. 8* OVER the total in Philadelphia

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #963 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Oakland A's @ 7:05 ET - The Orioles have gone over the total in 3 straight games. Baltimore's bullpen ranks as one of the worst in the majors thus far as they have compiled a 7.97 ERA, been hit at a .333 clip and allowed 15 homers in 40.2 innings! That is bad news for this match-up because with Andrew Cashner on the mound, the bullpen could very well be called upon early in this one! Cashner just faced the A's in September and allowed 8 earned runs in 8 innings! Not only that, in his two starts versus Oakland last season, Cashner allowed 3 homers in less than 7 innings of work! Marco Estrada gets the start for the A's here. I know he has had some success early this season but, in his only start away from home (in Japan) he did allow 2 homers in 5 innings. Also, the Orioles are very familiar with him and Estrada has allowed 4 homers in 17 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts against them. The Oakland right-hander went 5-11 with a 6.17 ERA in his night starts last season. The A's lineup got back on track with 8 runs in yesterday's tight loss at Houston. Oakland will now take advantage of a starting pitcher they have pounded plus a weak bullpen. Don't be surprised if the O's answer them run for run! 10* OVER the total in Baltimore

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #911 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:35 ET - Julio Urias has pitched sporadically in recent seasons and is only in the rotation due to injury. One thing that has been consistent for Urias when he has pitched though is the fact that he didn't like Coors Field! He has pitched here twice (one start) and has compiled an 11.57 ERA and been hit hard at a .457 clip! The southpaw faces a Rockies lineup tonight that has a number of hitters whom have enjoyed success against him. An evening game in early April in Colorado certainly can be chilly or even downright cold! But that is not the case this evening and that adds to the value here. Temperatures will top out in the 70s today in Denver and won't be much cooler than that when this one gets underway and on through the game temps should remain about the 60 degree mark. Very pleasant weather for baseball and the ball will carry very well tonight at Coors Field. Of course that also spells bad news for Rockies start Chad Bettis. Last season in his 17 home games (10 starts) he got rocked to the tune of a 7.08 ERA and opponents hit .311 against him. He is already off to rocky start this season as he struggled at Tampa Bay in his first start. Bettis is known for making mistake pitches that lead to big hits and that will spell trouble against a Dodgers lineup that is on fire right now. LA is very familiar with Bettis and has enjoyed some success against him. The Dodgers are scoring an average of 8 runs per game this season. The Rockies are still "getting going" now that they are at home but their 6 runs Friday is a sign of things to come and I expect them to pound Urias. Big total here but it is not nearly big enough when you consider all pertinent factors in this one. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #924 Sunday 8* Los Angeles Angels Money Line (-) vs Texas Rangers @ 4:05 ET - The Angels bats are starting to come to life now that they are at home. After a dismal start away from home, being back in Anaheim has done wonders for this LA lineup. Los Angeles has a much stronger overall lineup than the Rangers but, early in the season, overall starts can be deceiving. As a result, the betting markets have a little more faith in Texas than they should and a little less faith in the Angels than they should. The fact is the Angels already have a slugging percentage of .474 in their first 3 home games and they've hit an average of 2 homers per game. The Rangers have been living and dying with the long ball early this season and they've averaged only 1 homer in their 3 road games this season. In terms of the pitching match-up here I like the fact that Chris Stratton is off a rough first start but he faced a Mariners team that has been knocking the cover off the ball early this season. Also, the Texas lineup has almost no experience against the former San Francisco starting pitcher. As for the Rangers Shelby Miller, his first start looks solid on the surface based on his ERA but he was very luck as he actually allowed five hits and walked five in a start in which he didn't even complete 4 innings! Now he faces an Angels lineup that does have some experience against him and has given him some trouble. For example, a grouping of 5 Angels hitters is a combined 14 for 27 against Miller. I expect him to get rocked here. As for the Rangers lineup, they've had one big game the last 6 games. In the other 5 games (including 3 at home!) they averaged only 5.6 hits per game. The Angels lineup is starting to show some life at home and they wrap up this 4-game series with a 3rd straight win! 8* LOS ANGELES ANGELS

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #979 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:10 ET - This total did open up at a 9 and then it dropped to an 8.5 and, in typical contrarian fashion, I am grabbing the extra value and going with the over in this match-up. These teams combined for 23 runs yesterday. I don't expect them to get anywhere close to that today but just around half that (11 or 12) will do just fine for our purposes! The fact is that David Price can be a tough lefty but he did allow 4 earned runs in his first start and he is facing a Diamondbacks team that has pounded left-handed pitching so far this season. Also, Arizona starter Luke Weaver has bounced between the minors and the bigs in recent seasons and there is a reason for that. He showed again why that is by allowed 5 runs (4 earned) in less than 5 innings in his first start of this season. The right-hander now faces the defending World Champs and they'll build off scoring a bunch of runs in the latter innings of last night's game. Also, behind Weaver is a Dbacks bullpen that has been one of the worst in the majors so far this season. The normally brilliant Red Sox bullpen also has struggled and ranks only in the middle of the pack so far this season. The over is 7-2 this season in Boston's games and the Diamondbacks are 7-1 to the over. Until these trends start to turn around I see no reason to fade them. Since I like the pitching match-up here as well, I am looking for another one to eclipse the number today. 10* OVER the total in Arizona

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #976 Saturday 7* Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Minnesota Twins @ 2:05 ET - This money line (-140 range) is still low enough that there is value with the Phillies in this spot. Keep in mind, Bryce Harper (hitting .400 on season) went 0 for 4 yesterday and yet Philadelphia still scored 10 runs. Conversely, the Twins Jorge Polanco went 5 for 5 but the rest of the team went 6 for 33. The Phils are the much better slugging team early this season and I like the pitching match-up here as well. Jake Arrieta struggled early in his season opening outing but it was quite cold and certainly not ideal pitching conditions. He struggled with his grip of the baseball early but as he warmed up his stuff looked quite nasty and he had much better command as the game went on. Last season he was great in the first two months of the season and there is no reason to expect anything different this season with how wicked some of his pitches have looked through spring training and his first start. As for Michael Pineda, he is returning from missing all of the 2018 season after Tommy John surgery in 2017. Give him credit for a quality 4-inning stint in his first appearance but he faced an Indians team that is struggling at the plate early this season. Now he faces one of the hottest teams in baseball and also a team that has a slugging percentage about double that of Cleveland's. The Phillies have a number of hitters with some experience against Pineda and they've hit him well. The Twins are a long-term 61-82 against teams with a winning record. The Phillies are a perfect 4-0 at home this season. Also, the Phils 5 wins this season have come by an average margin of 4.8 runs per game. They're not just winning, they're dominating. 7* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #919 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:10 ET - As I mentioned when I used the over in his first start this season, even though Boston's Rick Porcello is a sinkerballer he has major trouble with giving up too many homers. The right-hander even went more and more to his slider last year and that didn't help matters. The fact is that Porcello entered this season having allowed 88 homers the past 3 seasons. There are only 2 other pitchers in the majors that allowed more over that span. Now the Red Sox right-hander certainly faces a challenge here as he pitches at Chase Field just like he did at T-Mobile Park. The Mariners were crushing the ball with 13 homers in their first 5 games of the season. Now Porcello faces a Diamondbacks team that has crushed 14 homers in their first 7 games this season! Porcello got rocked plus allowed a homer at Seattle and this was after allowing 4 homers in limited action in spring training. Look for the ball to continue to fly out of the yard in this one! The Red Sox righty will be opposed by Diamondbacks right-hander Zack Godley. He struggled badly in his first start this season and was roughed up for 7 earned runs in 5 and 1/3 innings. Godley goes from facing the World Series runner-up Dodgers to facing the World Champion Red Sox! In other words, the task at hand doesn't get any easier. I know the Boston sticks have been a little slow out of the gate this season but their last 4 games were at pitcher-friendly Oakland. Keep in mind their first 4 games saw them average 6 runs per game at Seattle and now the Red Sox finally play a series in a hitter-friendly venue. Also, the over is 6-1 in Diamondbacks games this season and 6-2 in Boston's games this season. The total on this one opened up at a 9 and dropped to an 8.5 and, in typical contrarian fashion, I am going opposite the line move and grabbing the added value with the over. Look for the over to improve to 4-0 in Porcello's career starts against Arizona. Also, the over is 28-10 when the Diamondbacks are playing after an off day. 10* OVER the total in Arizona

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #901 Thursday 8* OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 4:10 ET - Can it snow in Denver in April? Of course and this is particularly true in early April. However, the weather for the Rockies home opener is going to be absolutely gorgeous and I expect the ball to be flying all over the park in this hitter-friendly venue Friday afternoon. Temperatures will be in the 70s and the air, as is typically the case at Coors Field, will be very dry. That means the ball carries very well and this is especially true on a warm afternoon. The Rockies Kenta Maeda has had some success here in the past but I don't expect a repeat today. His long-term numbers show that he has been roughed up in day games in 2 of his 3 seasons in the majors. Also, against left-handed sticks he struggles much more than against righties. Not only is Colorado likely to have more than half their lineup filled with left-handed lumber, the right-handed sticks that will be in the lineup are their most dangerous power hitters. In other words, Maeda will get "no breaks" up and down this lineup on Friday. Yes the Rockies struggled against pitcher-heavy Tampa Bay but their bats will come to life now that their finally at home. As for Colorado pitcher Tyler Anderson, struggles are likely here. The southpaw got hammered by the Marlins in his season opener and getting hit hard by the WORST lineup in baseball is a bad sign! Anderson did have a bit of a rough spring. Also, the Dodgers certainly have a potent lineup and they got to him for 4 runs (3 earned) in less than 3 innings of work the last time they faced Anderson at Coors. Against left-handed starters, Los Angeles is on an 83-50 run to the over. Also, though this total may seem "big", LA is actually 12-2 to the over in road games with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs. The over is already 6-1 in Dodgers games this season and that high-scoring trend continues here with an early season slugfest at Coors. 8* OVER the total in Colorado

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #965 Thursday 10* Top Play Boston Red Sox Money Line (-) @ Oakland A's @ 3:35 ET - I am well aware of the scoreless inning streak Brian Anderson has in home games. So too are the odds makers. The fact is that the Red Sox are favored here with good reason and I also like the fact that Boston can build off last night's big 3-run top of the 9th that led to a 6-3 win. Keep in mind, the Red Sox scored the final 6 runs of that game. As for the A's Anderson, he had a great first start this season while Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez struggled. However, early in the season it is important not to over-react to one start. Note that Anderson faced an Angels team that has been struggling miserably at the plate early this season while Rodriguez faced a Mariners team that has been one of the hottest hitting teams in the majors early this season. In other words, don't be surprised if Anderson struggles here while Rodriguez bounces back. Anderson did struggle early last season and most of his struggles past two seasons were pre-All Star break. The timing is perfect to fade Anderson here as we only have lay a short price to have the defending champions and, again, I like the momentum boost they get after last night's 9th inning win. Sometimes all it takes is one game like that to completely flip the switch for a team and, of course, the Red Sox are a much better team than what their 1-5 start indicated. Also, in looking at this match-up, Boston does have the better bullpen as well. Oakland was strong in day games last season but the Red Sox were even stronger as they went an incredible 36-10 in afternoon action. 10* BOSTON

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #951 Thursday 8* OVER the total in New York Mets vs Washington Nationals @ 1:10 ET - The earliest total posted on this game when lines first went up offshore yesterday was a 7.5 and now it is down to a 6.5 this morning. I certainly understand the move based on the long-term reputations of Noah Syndergaard and Stephen Strasburg. However, the result here is fantastic line value as we just need 3 runs from each team and we have ourselves a winner as the game can't end 3-3 so, in that scenario, at least 7 runs will be scored. Why should we expect teach team to get to at least 3 runs? These hurlers just squared off in DC last week and each gave up 4 earned runs. They didn't necessarily pitch poorly but there are some big sticks in each of these lineups that can do some damage. Of course that is part of the reason the over is 4-0 the Nationals last 4 games and 5-0 the Mets last 5 games! Additionally, Strasburg has allowed at least 3 earned runs in each of his last 3 starts versus the Mets. Syndergaard has allowed at least 3 runs in each of his last two outings versus the Nats. The New York bullpen has a 4.26 ERA and a .278 BAA this season and that ranks them in the bottom half of the league. The Washington bullpen has been a complete disaster with an 11.02 ERA and a .377 BAA. Yes, as you would expect with numbers like that, the Nationals rank dead last in the majors. Strasburg averaged 6 innings per start last season and has averaged 5 and 2/3 innings his last 3 starts versus Mets. We should see some of that league worst bullpen here! Take advantage of the low total. 8* OVER the total in New York Mets

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #905 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 3:40 ET - This total has dropped to as low as a 7 in some spots as of early Wednesday morning and that is offering great line value on the over. The Diamondbacks are a perfect 6-0 to the over this season and their games have averaged 15 runs per game which is, of course, double the opening total of 7.5 that was posted on this match-up. I understand the low total as Joey Lucchesi and Robbie Ray both merit some respect for sure. However, the key to the value here is that the Diamondbacks have been one of the hottest hitting teams in the majors early this season and they have given Lucchesi some issues in the past. On the flip side, Ray gets a lot of strikeouts but also usually has command issues and walks a lot of batters. That combination generally leads to short outings. Now enter the Dbacks bullpen. They have performed as one of the worst pens in the league early this season and Ray often lasts no more than 5 innings in his starts so we'll get some Arizona bullpen in this one for a good chunk of the game quite possibly. Last but not least, though Petco Park favors pitchers more than hitters, it is also true that day games are more favorable than night games on the West Coast. Again, couple all the above factors with a very low total here and you can see why I am expect the over to improve to a perfect 7-0 in Arizona games this season. The Diamondbacks have averaged 14 hits in their last 3 games and even the Padres reached double digits in hits yesterday. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in San Diego

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #917 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins @ 1:15 ET - There is a lot to like here. First off the number of 8.5 gives us extra value as certainly 9 is a key number in baseball totals. We just need to get each team to 4 runs and we're guaranteed of cashing our ticket and I like our chances in that regard. Both teams reached double digits in hits yesterday and I know the game went 10 innings but both teams actually had reached 10 hits apiece by the 9th inning. So after swinging the bats quite well in a chilly evening game now they get an afternoon game in which temperatures will be warming possibly into the upper 60s and a fairly stout SSE wind blowing out to left field. That is not the scenario aptly named Homer Bailey wanted for this one. He consistently struggles in terms of giving up the long ball and last season he wrapped up the season allowing 23 hits including 3 homers in the 15 innings spanning his last 3 starts. I expect the Twins to get to him early and often. As for the Royals sticks, they should enjoy success against Kyle Gibson. I know the Minnesota right-hander can be tough at times but he has allowed 9 earned runs on 17 hits including 2 homers in his last 11 innings at Kauffman Stadium. Both of those starts were after the All Star break last season so it is not like this is dated history either. Gibson has recently struggled here and I expect more of the same Wednesday afternoon. The over is 3-0 in Royals last 3 games and 2-0 in Twins last 2 games. Expect more of the same here. 8* OVER the total in Kansas City

TV Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 7:05 ET - It goes without saying that Max Scherzer is a fantastic pitcher. That said, the Phillies are familiar with him and Philadelphia now has one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball and is the only undefeated team on the season thus far. Of course Scherzer being on the mound is why this total is being held to a 7. The Phillies 1 through 8 is arguably the deepest lineup of any team in the league. In my opinion the weakest link is the guy they've been batting 6th and that is Odubel Herrera. Therein lies the key to this match-up. I really like the other 7 sticks in the lineup and, as for Herrera, he is hitting .341 against Scherzer and it is NOT a small sample size. That is over 41 at bats and includes 2 homers and 5 RBI. Don't be surprised if the Phillies do some damage tonight and note that the Nationals bullpen is a major question mark too! As for the Washington sticks, they certainly should have a big game here. Phillies starter Zach Eflin has proven much better at home than on the road in his young career. In his road starts he is 6-10 with a 5.80 ERA and has been hit at nearly a .300 clip. By the way, at Nationals park, he has been rocked in two career starts and the Nats have hit .400 against him there! The over is 2-1 in Eflin's 3 career starts against Washington and the over is 2-1 in Scherzer's last 3 starts against the Phils. The last 22 times Philadelphia has played a game with a posted total of 7 runs only 7 of the 22 stayed under the total. 10* OVER the total in Washington

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #951 Tuesday 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 6:40 ET - Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees warmer than yesterday as the winds are starting to turn around to the south in Cincinnati. In a hitter-friendly park that does make a big difference. Jhoulys Chacin is a solid starter for the Brewers but he does struggle from time to time with allowing the big hits. He gave up two homers in his season opener versus St Louis. Also, he has lasted an average of just 5 innings in his last 3 starts at Cincinnati and he gave up 4 or more earned runs in 2 of the 3 outings. Behind him, note that the Brewers bullpen is dealing with injuries early this season. As for Reds starter Anthony DeSclafani, he is known for struggling against left-handed hitters and the Brewers have a number of dangerous hitters that will be stepping in on that side of the batters box tonight. DeSclafani has allowed 4 earned runs in EACH of his last 3 starts against Milwaukee. With a low total (8.5) to work with and my expectation that each team gets to at least 4 runs in this one, we have a great value spot here as this game ends with no less than a 5-4 final score in my opinion. 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #925 Monday 10* Top Play Colorado Rockies Money Line (+) @ Tampa Bay Rays @ 7:10 ET - The Rockies are off a disappointing 2-2 split of their series at Miami. Colorado was shutout in the series finale yesterday. The Rockies are 13-8 the past two seasons when coming off a shutout loss. Also, Colorado had scored an average of 5 runs per game in the first 3 games of the series. By comparison, the Rays haven't even scored 5 runs in a game yet this season! Yes, Tampa Bay is known for strong pitching but they've managed an average of just 6 HITS per game in their first 4 games this season. Conversely, the Rockies as I noted above, had averaged 5 RUNS per game in their first 3 games this season. Play this game with ACTION on the pitchers because the Rays are going the "Bullpen Game" rout in this one and Ryne Stanek is expected to be the opener but sometimes they change those things up. I want action on this money line play because no matter who pitches, I like the Rockies to bounce back here and I like the Colorado lineup in comparison with the Tampa Bay lineup. Note that Chad Bettis is a quality pitcher when he is healthy and he went 3-1 with a 2.43 ERA in his April starts last year. He should excel against a Tampa lineup that is off to a slow start this season. The Rays are 18-22 (-$6,800) in interleague games the past two seasons. The Rockies are 88-72 (+$30,600) the past two seasons when facing a team with a winning record. Tampa Bay has won 3 straight and the Rockies have lost 2 straight. The markets are over-reacting to this and I am grabbing the road dog value. 10* COLORADO

Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Game #977 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox @ 4:10 ET - Even though Boston's Rick Porcello is a sinkerballer he has major trouble with giving up too many homers. The right-hander also went more and more to his slider last year and that didn't help matters. The fact is that Porcello has allowed 88 homers the past 3 seasons. There are only 2 other pitchers in the majors that allowed more over that span. Now the Red Sox right-hander certainly faces a challenge here as he pitches at T-Mobile Park. The Mariners are crushing the ball with 13 homers in their first 5 games this season. Porcello has allowed 4 homers in his last 2 visits to Seattle. He'll be opposed by Mariners southpaw Wade LeBlanc. The lefty had a strong outing when he faced the Red Sox in Seattle last season. However, his very next start was also against Boston but this time it was at Fenway. LeBlanc got crushed for 6 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work. The point is the Red Sox certainly figured a few things out in reference to the soft-tossing lefty and they will pound him again here. Another key to the value with this play is both bullpens have been giving up their fair share of runs so far in this series. Look for a 4th straight over between these teams and that means the Mariners O/U mark will go to 6-0 on the season. I am going to ride this early season trend on Sunday. 10* OVER the total in Seattle

Game of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Game #906 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Atlanta Braves @ 4:05 ET - The first numbers that popped up offshore for this game had the Phillies in the -155 price range. They have since dropped to as low as a -130 in some spots. I understand the move because the Braves are expected to be just as strong as Philadelphia in the NL East this season and Nick Pivetta flies "under the radar" for Philly. However, Pivetta is truly a much stronger pitcher than the "black and white" numbers show. He is a strikeout pitcher and tends to be particularly tough at home and even tougher in day games! Pivetta has a 3.83 ERA in day game outings in his career and this is a guy that struck out 113 batters in his 91 innings on his home mound last season. He held batters to a .229 BAA in day games last season. The Braves counter with Bryse Wilson and I know he has a top prospect for Atlanta and had a strong spring training. However, now he makes just the 2nd start of his MLB career (and just 4th appearance) and he has a 2.00 WHIP at the MLB level in his young career. He faces a very potent Phillies lineup and the wind will be blowing out at Citizens Bank Park this afternoon. Wilson is just 21 years old. He only made 3 starts at AAA level of minors and has a 5.32 ERA in his 5 appearances at the AAA level. Some may be looking for an Atlanta bounce back after getting trounced in the opener but the Braves are 11-15 after allowing 10 or more runs. The Phillies are 25-14 as a home favorite in a range of -125 to -175. How strong is this Phillies lineup? Prized offseason acquisitions Harper and Realmuto combined to go 0 for 6 in the season opener and the Phils still scored 10 runs! Lay the reasonable price here. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #962 Friday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) vs Houston Astros @ 7:10 ET - Of course the Astros are a great team and certainly Gerrit Cole deserves plenty of respect. However, lets not forget the Rays won 90 games last season! I love getting them as a home dog here with Charlie Morton on the mound. It will be his first start with the Rays and, coincidentally, he gets to face his former team! Keep in mind, he was a big part of the 2017 World Series team in Houston and then last year was an All Star for the Astros. Morton has a fantastic curveball but what has also been impressive with him is that his fastball is improving with age! Though Morton is now in his mid-30s, his fastball is consistently in the mid-90s and that ranks him as one of the best in the AL among starters. I also like the fact that the few Houston hitters that do have experience against Morton have not had success while the Rays do have a few hitters whom have had some success against Cole. As I said above, Cole is a great pitcher but so too is Morton and you know he is going to give a huge effort against his former team here. I like grabbing home dog Tampa Bay off the low-scoring loss yesterday. In home games with a posted total of 7 runs or less, the Rays are 19-6 their last 25 games! That is even including yesterday's loss and note that, even with the Astros win yesterday, Houston is still just 3-5 (-$4,000) in road games with a posted total of 7 runs or less. 10* TAMPA BAY

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #933 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Chicago Cubs @ 4:05 ET - The Cubs Jon Lester was fortunate last season. His overall numbers look good but when you analyze advanced metrics he wasn't pitching nearly as well as you would think. Now he comes off a rough spring training and has to pitch at one of the most hitter friendly venues in baseball. Sometimes the Dallas-Fort Worth area can be quite cold in late March but it is going to be a very mild spring afternoon in DFW with the south winds blowing. Lester has allowed 14 hits in just 8+ innings in his last two opening starts. I do not expect this to go well for him. The Rangers are a much better hitting team when at home than on the road and though they strike out a lot the fact is that Lester is NOT the type of dominating strikeout pitcher that gives them trouble. He'll pitch to contact and Texas is going to do some damage. As for the Cubs bullpen, they are certainly weakened by the fact that closer Brandon Morrow is still out. The Rangers starter here is also a southpaw as Mike Minor gets the call. Rare opening day start for him plus he missed the 2015 and 2016 seasons due to injury and then was a reliever in 2017. I know he had a solid 2018 as a starter but he is still absolutely not your typical opening day starter and he is facing a helluva test here against a very powerful Cubs lineup. As for the Rangers sticks, for total runs they ranked 2nd in AL against left-handed pitching last season and also 4th in AL for total runs in home games. The Cubs had the #1 team batting average in the NL last season. It is with good reason that this total (9.5) is the biggest total on the board on opening day. Look for plenty of runs early and often in this one. 10* OVER the total in Texas

NOTE: The Red Sox have decided to start David Price here and that is perfectly fine with me. The southpaw is whom sent the Red Sox into the World Series with his huge effort at Houston in the ALCS. He also has fared well against the Dodgers in this World Series. Overall, in his last 3 appearances on the mound Price has allowed just 2 earned runs on only 7 hits while striking out 14 in 12 and 2/3 innings. Grab the underdog VALUE here. ORIGINAL write-up: Game of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Game #907 Sunday 10* Top Play Boston Red Sox Money Line (+) @ Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:05 ET - It was Chris Sale whom fired up the Red Sox in the dugout in the latter innings of last night's huge come from behind win. That said, you know Boston's ace lefty is highly unlikely to "lay an egg" on the mound after all of his "antics" yesterday as he is the type of ace that backs up his talk with his performances on the field. With all due respect to the Dodgers Clayton Kershaw, the fact is that when both he and Sale struggled in Game 1, Kershaw was the lesser of the two in that game. The big key to the value here is more than just Sale outpitching Kershaw though. The big keys are that the Red Sox have had the better bats at the plate throughout this series. They also have had the better bullpen performances. They certainly also have momentum on their side after last night's huge win. I also like the fact that Boston is 5-0 in Sale's last 5 road starts and 12-2 in his last 14 starts overall. As for Kershaw, the Dodgers have now lost 2 of his last 3 starts. There is a reason that Los Angeles is priced as such a small home favorite here. Don't be fooled by the small line. This series is highly likely to end tonight ladies and gentlemen. 10* BOSTON

NOTE: The fact is that one could consider this play "action" as I really don't care who gets the start at pitcher for either team so please keep this in mind. This is an official 8* release for me no matter whom starts. As for now, Eduardo Rodriguez is now the scheduled starter for the Red Sox instead of Drew Pomeranz. This is as of about 4 hours prior to game time. This is still a play for me matter what as this play has a lot more to do with the extra arms being used up in last night's 18-inning affair than it has to do with the starting pitchers. However, I will add this: Rodriguez has a 5.82 ERA in the post-season anyway and I don't expect him to enjoy much success here nor do I expect him to last very long. In other words, this play on the OVER is still ON. Original write-up here: Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #907 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:05 ET - Yesterday's 18-inning game was a World Series record for longest game. When teams are forced to play what was essentially a double header on a day that was scheduled for just one game, a lot more pitching gets used up than a team would have ever expected. That said, there is value here with this over as most will be looking the way of under after each of the last two games have successfully landed under the total. I successfully played the under in Game 2 but made a poor call with the over in Game 3. Today I come right back with the over as the hitters should rule this game. Drew Pomeranz gets the start for the Red Sox and he hasn't made a start in nearly 3 months. Over his last 7 starts he has averaged about 4 innings per start! In other words, an already fatigued bullpen is likely to be called into play early. The over is 10-4-1 in the last 15 starts that Rich Hill has made. The southpaw is getting the call for the Dodgers here. He has lasted just 5 innings or less in 4 of his last 6 starts. Again, bullpen usage likely to be high for LA just as it is for Boston in this one. Mild weather again at Dodger Stadium this evening and, this time, the bats cooperate. 8* OVER the total in Los Angeles

Playoff Game of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Game #905 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:05 ET - I successfully went with the under in Game 2 of this series but I expect Game 3 to play out much like Game 1 did in this World Series. The bats are simply too strong here in each lineup and high temperatures today are forecast to be in the low 80s today in Los Angeles. Very warm weather compared to what the teams played in back in Boston to open up this series. Temperatures will still be in the upper 70s at first pitch in this one at 5 Pacific Time in LA. Boston's Rick Porcello hasn't pitched at Dodger Stadium in many years but certainly the hitters didn't have any trouble tracking his pitches when he did! His two starts here in 2010 and 2011 saw him allow 7 earned runs on 18 hits in less than 11 innings of work! Porcello also get hit hard at Houston in the ALCS as he allowed 4 earned runs on 7 hits in just 4 innings of work. He'll be opposed by the Dodgers Walker Buehler. I know that overall Buehler has pitched well but he's been victimized lately by giving up big hits at the wrong time and there is no doubt that the Red Sox have been the most dangerous team in MLB this season in terms of getting big hits in clutch situations. So much pop in the Boston lineup and Buehler allowed 6 hits in less than 5 innings in his most recent post-season start and also allowed 9 earned runs in 12 innings in the two starts that preceded that one! The over is 15-8 this season when the Red Sox are playing after a day off. Boston is 12-4 to the over when a road dog in a money line range of +125 to +175 this season. Expect another one here! 10* OVER the total in the Los Angeles Dodgers

MLB Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Game #904 Wednesday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:05 ET - The Red Sox scored 5 runs last night with 2 outs in an inning. Impressive clutch hitting for sure but, outside of that, 7 runs were scored in last night's game. The point being that now we're seeing a total of 8.5 in Game 2 even though it is going to be another chilly evening at Fenway Park and even though one should be considering a very important factor here. Are either of these starting pitchers likely to pitch as bad as Kershaw and Sale did last night? Think about it...their combined line was 8 earned runs allowed on 12 hits and 5 walks in their combined 8 innings. That is a poor effort to say the last. Don't be surprised if Hyun-Jin Ryu and David Price both give better efforts tonight. Ryu struggled at Milwaukee in the NLCS but the Red Sox don't have familiarity with him. Also, Price will still be riding high from his dominating effort at Houston that propelled Boston into this World Series. In starts where Price has been a favorite this season only 8 of 27 went over the total! Before Ryu's most recent start at Milwaukee went over the total, 10 of his last 14 night game starts had resulted in an under. I suspect this one will as well! Grab the added value as last night's results have resulted in a boosted total here when the reality is the starting pitching will likely prove to be much better on another chilly night at Fenway Park. 10* UNDER the total in Boston

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #902 Tuesday 7* Boston Red Sox Money Line (-) vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:05 ET - This money line is low enough to fall within my range as I generally don't like playing favorites. Note the rating though is a little lower (7*) than my average regular play (8*) as that compensates some for laying a little more juice. While the Dodgers were plus a slight 1.1 units in interleague action this season, the Red Sox have dominated when facing the National League. Boston is 46-14 (+27.4 net units) in recent seasons including 16-4 (+11.4 net units) this season. As a home favorite in a range of -125 to -175 this season, Boston has gone 20-8. Clayton Kershaw gets the start for the Dodgers here and he allowed 4 earned runs in just 3 innings in his lone road start in the NLCS versus the Brewers. Chris Sale gets the start for the Red Sox here and he has allowed 3 or more earned runs just once in his last 16 starts! You have to like the odds of a bounce back here for the BoSox with Sale on the mound. They lost his most recent start but previously had won 11 of his last 12 starts! The Dodgers do have a strong record with Kershaw on the mound too but he has allowed at least 3 earned runs in EACH of his last 4 road starts! 7* BOSTON

Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #961 Saturday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers @ 8:05 ET - As an MLB fan I generally enjoy rooting for the underdog. That side of me would be pulling for the Brewers in this game. However, in successful sports betting you have to shut out the "fan" aspect of it because it is all about the analytics. So though it would have been nice to see the Brewers finally back in the World Series for the first time since 1982 I just do not see it happening. The odds makers knew what they were doing here when they made the Dodgers a moderate favorite with the opening line here. It has since come down to very nearly a pick'em and this is understandable because of the post-season ERA numbers of these two pitchers thus far. However, that doesn't tell the full story here. The fact is that the Dodgers Walker Buehler has simply been done in by a couple of big hits. Note that he has allowed only 7 hits in his 12 post-season innings! Also, he has continued to pile up strikeouts. The point is that the LA right-hander has been a little unfortunate with his outcomes and that brings us to Jhoulys Chacin. Give the Milwaukee right-hander credit as he has pitched well. But he gave up quite a few hard hit balls in the first start versus the Dodgers and yet he managed to escape damage. I feel he will not be so fortunate in round two. Also, Chacin has averaged only 5 innings per start his last 8 starts. Conversely, Buehler has averaged above 6.5 innings per start his last 8 starts. Buehler, if he is rolling, could go 7 or 8 here while that doesn't hold true for Chacin and the Brewers used some key bullpen yesterday. 10* LOS ANGELES DODGERS

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #957 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:35 ET - This total opened up at an 8 but is starting to drop to a 7.5 in some spots which comes as no surprise. After all, under has been the trend in this series. However, in typical contrarian fashion, I am going with the over here. For one thing, Hyun-Jin Ryu got hit quite hard by the Brewers in his first start in this series. Secondly, the Dodgers have plenty of confidence right now as they've won back to back games in this series. So LA certainly won't be lacking for confidence at the plate as they've also averaged 5 runs per game in their last 4 road games. The Brewers scored a total of 9 runs in their two home games in this series and should have no trouble with Ryu. Additionally, the further you get into a series, the more a lineup gets to see the bullpen and so don't be surprised if there are a few more "connections" for each team against the opposing relievers in tonight's match-up. It all adds up to plenty of runs expected at Miller Park tonight. Look for the over to improve to 15-9 when the Brewers are playing after an off day. As for Los Angeles, the over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 road games. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #955 Thursday 8* Boston Red Sox Run Line (+) @ Houston Astros @ 8:05 ET - I am well aware of the fact that the games in this series have been high-scoring and that last night's 2-run margin of victory was the smallest one yet in this series. However, I have a strong inclination that today's game, being the first elimination game setting of this series, is going to be very tight all the way. Justin Verlander, of course, is a dominating pitcher. However, David Price had allowed just 7 hits while striking out 17 in his two prior starts versus the Astros before he struggled earlier in this series. I am aware of his post-season struggles as a reputation but I believe that Houston is going to be squeezing the sticks a little too tight at the plate in this one in this elimination game. It sets up to be a tight one run game in my opinion. Note that the Red Sox, at +1.5 runs, are 12-1 (92%) in their last 13 road games! I'll take it. Lay the small price to get the BoSox at +1.5 runs in this one. 8* BOSTON Run Line