MLB Tuesday OVER 12.5 in Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 8:40 ET - Mild weather, winds blowing out toward right-center and with a pair of struggling right-handed pitchers slated to start this one. It is a great spot all the way around for another slugfest. Yesterday's final looked like a football score as Pittsburgh defeated Colorado two touchdowns to a field goal: 14 to 3. I would not be surprised to see each team get to a TD in this one! Of course a 7-7 game would mean at least an 8-7 final and honestly I am expecting the mid-teens on this one again just like yesterday's game. The Pirates start Velasquez and the journeyman right-hander will again find Coors Field to be a disaster for him. The Pittsburgh righty is 35-49 with a 4.94 ERA in his career and has been trending the wrong direction in recent seasons. Every once in awhile he'll have a good start come out of nowhere like he did at St Louis last week but those tend to be one-offs and I am expecting his stuff to lack movement here in the thin air of Denver. That will prove to be a disaster. Speaking of disasters, the Rockies Jose Urena is winless with a 9.90 ERA so far this season. Last year at Coors Field he was 2-5 with a 6.30 ERA and this year he has allowed 5 homers in 10 innings in his 3 starts overall. Again, the wind is blowing out tonight. The Rockies and Pirates bullpens have not impressed this season either. Slugfest at Coors Field. OVER 12.5 in Colorado

MLB Monday OVER 11.5 in Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 8:40 ET - I know Freeland has great numbers early this season for the Rockies but the weather is going to be great in Denver for this one plus the Pirates have actually been a surprise early this season. The Pittsburgh bats are sure to enjoy hitting in nice conditions at Coors Field in this one as well. The Pirates are off an extra-innings loss yesterday but had won 8 of 12 games heading into that one! Pittsburgh had scored an average of 6 runs in those 8 victories. Now they should hit Freeland well but I expect their starter, Hill, to get absolutely crushed here. Hill has just 1 strikeout TOTAL in his last 2 starts and if you are pitching to contact at Coors Field it generally does not work out well for you! I know this is a big total here but the Rockies last 6 games have all totaled at least 11 runs and averaged 13 runs. Colorado is off a tough road trip, as usual, so they will be happy to be back home. Rockies scoring an average of 6 runs per game in their last 6 at Coors Field. Neither one of these bullpens has been overly impressive so far this season either. OVER 11.5 in Colorado

MLB Sunday OVER 8.5 in Kansas City Royals vs Atlanta Braves @ 2:10 ET - This total opened at a 9 but has dropped to an 8.5 in some spots as of early Sunday morning. I know the weather is not ideal in Kansas City today as it will be rather chilly for this game but I really like the over a lot here. Traditionally I like to look for overs, one of my favorite situations is when a strong team is on the road but has a struggling pitcher on the mound and the home team has a big name pitcher going. This tends to lead to strong line value. That is because the line on the total is generally kept down and yet the number should be bigger because of the hot road team hitting well but the weaker home team also getting some solid scoring because they are hosting plus facing a struggling pitcher. So, in terms of what I just outlined there, this one is all systems go. The Braves have Kyle Wright on the mound and he struggled in spring training and that carried right into his first start this season as well. As for the Royals Greinke, he has a decent ERA but has been giving up plenty of hits plus seems to be giving up a little more with each start. Also, now he faces a red hot Braves lineup. Atlanta has seen 8 of last 9 games total at least 9 runs and those 8 have averaged 11 runs apiece and the Braves lineup has been very hot here at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals bullpen has been one of the worst in baseball and KC has seen their last 5 games all total more than 10 runs and these games have actually averaged 12.4 runs apiece. More of the same here. OVER 8.5 in Kansas City

MLB Saturday Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +100 @ Cincinnati Reds @ 4:10 ET - Great market value here. This line opened up at a -135 on the Phillies and now they are actually the dog in this game. I understand the line move based on Strahm versus Ashcraft but couple keys with that and I will get more into the pitching in a moment though I am making this MLB bet with action on the starting pitchers as per usual. The fact is I love fading big market moves like this as I have a ton of respect for the odds makers. Also, when you look at these teams, they have similar records so far this season and the Phillies are without Hoskins for the entire season and Harper is still out right now too. However, when the dust settles on this season I would not be surprised to see the Reds again lose 100 games and the Phillies to again be in the post-season. Yes, there is still that much of a gap between these teams. That said, this is a line value spot. The Phillies have the much better lineup. Also, Ashcraft is off to a solid start for the Reds but his lone day start was against a Pirates team that does not have a lineup like this Phillies team does. That said, note that Ashcraft was 0-3 in his 7 day starts last season and had an ERA north of 7.00 in those. As for Strahm, he has yet to allow an earned run this season and was solid in day game action last season. Yes the Phillies have been hit and miss so far this season but this looks like a great value spot for them. Look for them to hit again today and the Reds to lose for the 8th time in last 10 games! PHILADELPHIA +100

MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 6:40 ET - The Marlins are hitting better than usual early this season. The Diamondbacks also are scoring just fine. The problem for each here is a pair of struggling starters. Bumgarner is off to a rough start this season for the Dbacks and walking too many guys and he is known for struggling more on the road so things are unlikely to improve here. As for Rogers, he is off to a sluggish start this season too and has allowed 3 earned runs in each of his two starts though he was unable to complete 5 innings in either one. Arizona is 6-2 last 8 games and has averaged scoring 6.3 runs per game during this stretch. Miami is 4-4 last 8 games and has scored a respectable average of 4.4 runs per game in last 7 games. The Marlins have allowed an average of 8 runs per game in their 7 losses this season. OVER 9 in Miami

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers @ 7:07 ET - Two struggling starting pitchers and a manageable number here to work with and a Blue Jays team that can mash the ball at home and a Tigers lineup that should do enough to insure this one gets over the total given this pitching situation - not just the starters but also the bullpen situation. So the play here is action on pitchers as is the norm for me. The Tigers have averaged about 4 runs per game last 8 games but of course they are a big dog here for a reason. The Blue Jays have won 7 of 8 games and averaged scoring about 6 runs per game. Bassitt got hit hard in first start for Toronto then walked 5 guys in 6 innings in his 2nd start. The past two seasons Bassitt has a higher ERA in night games than day games. Detroit's Turnbull has seen his strikeout numbers very low this season and he has allowed 12 earned runs and struggled in each of his first two starts. He is not the same pitcher he was before the Tommy John surgery. Maybe he will get it back but he is not there yet for sure. 10* OVER 9 in Toronto

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 3:40 ET - Brewers had to put Woodruff on the 15-day injured list so Junk is getting this start for Milwaukee. He was not overly impressive in the spring and was in the minors for a reason. Also, he has struggled thus far at the MLB level but was called up to make this start and it is on the road so will not be an easy outing for him. As for the Diamondbacks, they are starting Jameson and he has been a reliever so far this season. So really this is a match-up of two unproven guys and is likely to involve a lot of bullpen work. So the starters do not matter much here and I am looking for an over as the lineups will be the story in this one. I know the Diamondbacks were shutdown yesterday but this followed a 4-game winning streak in which they averaged 8 runs per game. Also the win just prior to that 4-game run also saw them score 8 runs. As for the Brewers, they scored 7 runs yesterday and have won 8 of 10 games and averaged scoring 7 runs in those 8 victories. This one is up to a 9.5 but definitely looking for double digits in this one. 10* OVER 9.5 in Arizona

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -139 vs Miami Marlins @ 6:40 ET - This line has dropped from the 160 range to the 140 range. I fully understand the line move but the fact is we now have line value with the defending champs at home. Luzardo has pitched great for Miami but Alcantara also had been pitching great and we saw what happened yesterday as the Phillies exploded with a huge performance at the plate. This Phillies team is a different team when at home. Nola is also a different pitcher when at home. This is his first home start this season and also this is Luzardo's first road start this season. The odds makers of aware of all the key dynamics here and that is why this line opened as high as it did. The drop on the line is because the markets have not grasped the fact just yet that the Marlins have a weak lineup again this season and some suspect arms in the bullpen too. The Phillies, even without Hoskins and Harper right now, are the much better overall team in all facets of the game. I have a ton of respect for Luzardo but he could struggle here in his first road start and facing a lineup that has some guys with familiarity against him. Also, I do expect Nola to dominate at home. 10* PHILADELPHIA -139

MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Chicago Cubs vs Seattle Mariners @ 7:40 ET - This is another line value spot due to the pitcher on the mound. Yes, Luis Castillo is a strong pitcher and the Seattle right-hander is off to a great start this season. However, both those outings were at home. In recent seasons, Castillo has not been as strong on the road as he has been at home. Also, mild evening expected in Chicago with light southerly winds. That also helps the hitters here. Additionally, the Cubs are off an 8-2 home loss and will be ready to respond at the plate here. The problem for Chicago is that they will have Drew Smyly on the mound. He had a rough spring and then that carried right into his first start this season as well. That does not bode well for him here as he faces a Mariners team that is off a 7-6 loss in extra innings yesterday. By the way, that 12-inning game at Cleveland also means that Seattle used up some extra bullpen arms. So the fact is that we have great situational edges for runs here yet we are dealing with a low total of 8 because Castillo is the scheduled starter for the Mariners here. 5 of last 6 Cubs have totaled double digits in runs and those 5 averaged 13.4 runs apiece. The last 7 Mariners games have averaged 9.6 runs per game and only one failed to get to the 8-run mark. I like the odds we see another double-digits runs game at Wrigley Field in this one. 10* OVER 8 in Chicago Cubs

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Chicago Cubs vs Texas Rangers @ 2:20 ET - Jon Gray is a solid pitcher for sure but this is an afternoon road game at Wrigley Field and the wind, though light, will be blowing out and the Cubs are swinging hot bats. The 10-3 Chicago win yesterday was the 4th time last 5 games that a Cubs game has totaled at least 13 runs! Those 4 games averaged 14 runs and we just need 9 runs here to be a winner. Note that Jameson Taillon gets the start for the Cubs and he struggled in his first start this season which was also here at Wrigley Field. This Rangers team can hit and since Taillon use to pitch in the American League, the Rangers have extra familiarity with him and they have hit him well. Taillon was 5-0 in day starts last season but got hit at a .276 clip and that was 43 points higher than his average in night games. This is a tough match-up for him and the Cubs bullpen has not been good either. So I look for the Rangers bats to get back on track here but also the Cubbies lineup stays hot at this home and this one flies over the total. 10* OVER 8 in Chicago Cubs 

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -130 vs Cincinnati Reds @ 4:05 ET - This line is low because of the pitching match-up. But the fact is Lodolo is still a young hurler just like Falter is and the latter is at home for the Phillies here. So lets talk about the overall lineups and the bullpens. The Phillies are the better team. They are the defending NL Champions that just were facing the Astros in the World Series about 5 months ago. I do realize their lineup is not as strong now as it was then because they lost Hoskins for the year and Harper is still out. However, have you looked at the Reds lineup? The Phillies still have the much stronger lineup. Philadelphia should have had a lot more runs yesterday. Note the Phillies won 5-2 and this was despite going only 1 for 10 with runners in scoring position. Look for Philadelphia to cash in more of their opportunities today and I look for them to pull away as this game goes on. Some of Cincinnati's best hitters don't do so well with off-speed stuff and especially from a crafty lefty. Falter will keep them off-balance. The Phillies have enough solid hitting to do some damage against Lodolo as well as a questionable bullpen. Philadelphia's bullpen is the stronger pen and looked strong yesterday. They are at home where, including post-season, I believe they have now won 21 of last 28 games! Reds known for struggling at the plate when on the road. Last season was ugly and this season likely will be the same for Cincinnati. This is just their 2nd road game of the season. I project another road loss for them. 10* PHILADELPHIA -130

MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees @ 3:05 ET - The Yankees should hit Kremer hard here. He struggled in his day games last season and that was his bounce back season as, overall, 2021 was rough. Then, to open this season, Kremer got hammered by the Red Sox. As for New York's Schmidt, like Kremer, he got rocked in his first start this season. Also, last season was his first season with significant MLB action but most of that was out of the bullpen. Overall, he was better at home and in night games. This is a day game and he is on the road so you can see why Schmidt likely to struggle too. The Yankees have not scored as well last two games but averaged scoring 6 runs per game in their first 4 games this season. The Orioles off a low-scoring loss but averaged 6.4 runs scored in first 5 games this season. I feel we have some extra line value here with this total being held lower than it should be because both teams off lower-scoring results. The way these teams opened the season, and considering this match-up, this one should fly over the total. 10* OVER 8.5 in Baltimore

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 10.5 in Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals @ 4:10 ET - The Rockies are expected to send Kyle Freeland to the mound for their home opener. It will be chilly in Colorado for this game but it is an afternoon game and temperatures will be warming into the 50s so it is not bad. In the thin air of Denver the ball carries so well and the weather is good enough today to see solid run-scoring here. Freeland had a 6.00 ERA in home starts last season. Historically he struggles more in home starts as Coors Field is hitter friendly and he also struggles more in day games. His ERA in day games in recent seasons: 5.51 ERA, 5.91 ERA, 7.94 ERA, 5.80 ERA. The Nationals are expected to send Josiah Gray to the mound for this one. He got rocked in his first start this season plus he has a 5.26 ERA in his career. Gray allowed 3 earned runs in 5 innings in his lone career start at Coors Field and this one could be worse. Rockies should get their sticks going at home here as they are a different team when they are at home. At the same time though, Colorado known for giving up big runs here. In their road games this season, Rockies already allowing 5 runs per game and Nationals are allowing 6 runs per game and now take to the road for the first time this season. I expect each team to get to 5 runs here and that would equate to at least a 6-5 final as, of course, the game can not end 5-5. Solid value here. 10* OVER 10.5 in Colorado

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Boston Red Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 1:35 ET - The Red Sox and Pirates stayed under the total yesterday as the game was 3-1 in the top of the 3rd but then basically died after that in what was a 4-1 final. We get some line value today because this total opened up at a 9 and has dropped to an 8.5 which is partially due to yesterday's light-hitting results as well as the fact the wind is expected to be blowing in today. That said, I am happy to take advantage of the added value here. Note that Pittsburgh's Mitch Keller is 12-29 with a 5.04 ERA in his career and he is off a season-opening start in which he walked 4 and allowed 6 hits and all of this was in less than 5 innings of work. As for Boston's Corey Kluber, he has regressed season after season since those big seasons of 2016, 2017 and 2018 with Cleveland. Also, Kluber had a similar start to Keller in terms of struggling in his season-opening outing. Kluber allowed 6 hits and walked 4 and this was in just 3 and 1/3 innings of work. Remember last season opponents hit .274 against him and now he is pitching his home games that is one of the best parks in the majors for hitters. Look for him to struggle again here just like he did against the Orioles in the opener. 10* OVER 8.5 in Boston

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Boston Red Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 7:10 ET - Pirates games have averaged 9 runs so far this season. Red Sox games have been very high-scoring so far this season. Yesterday's 7-6 loss just another typical Boston game and I am looking for the Pirates and Red Sox to do it again today on Tuesday as they meet in the 2nd game of this series. Contreras was solid at home last season and in day games. However, this match-up is the exact opposite as he is on the road in a night game and this situation saw him struggle more. As for Boston's Pivetta, he was hit much harder at home and Fenway Park is known as a hitters park for good reason. 19, 17, 14, 13 are the totals runs for the Red Sox games thus far and I look for another wild one tonight as both starters get lit up and who is on the mound to start is not critical as both bullpens have proven susceptible to start this season as well. 10* OVER 9 in Boston

MLB Monday OVER 8 in Chicago White Sox vs San Francisco Giants @ 3:10 ET - This total dropped from an 8.5 to an 8 and I also like the fact the Giants just faced some tough pitching in the Bronx against the Yankees so many are doubting their lineup right now. Look for them to surprise against Kopech and the White Sox here. The issue for San Francisco, however, will be the fact that Desclafani is likely to get roughed up here. He has struggled in day games in recent seasons and overall is coming off an injury-plagued season too. As for Kopech, he is coming off a rough spring as he was winless in his 5 starts and had a 7.11 ERA. Desclafani had a 5.59 ERA in the spring. Don't be surprised if both pitchers get a little roughed here and that plus the line value on this drop of the total makes this a solid play the way I see it. Solid chance each team gets to 4 runs here and that would equate to nothing less than a 5-4 final. OVER 8 in Chicago White Sox

MLB Sunday OVER 8.5 in Texas Rangers vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 7:08 ET - The first two games of this series have totaled 37 runs! The Rangers have been on fire at the plate. The projected match-up here is a pair of southpaws with Bailey Falter matched up with Martin Perez. Though the lefty dynamic could change things a little bit after the first games of this series featured all right-handers, I feel that the hot hitting will still continue. The Phillies bats should wake up here as they have some guys in their lineup that have enjoyed success against Perez plus they will go with a lineup heavy on right-handed lumber. Perez was very strong last season against lefties but not as dominant against righties. Also, it was a bit of a career year for Perez in terms of his performance and I am not convinced he will repeat such success this season. As for Falter, he throws strikes and pitches to contact and is not overpowering. That all sounds like it will lead to disaster against this Rangers lineup the way they are swinging the sticks right now. In other words, a lefty that can be crafty at times but is still rather young and unpolished and is not overpowering...this is not a recipe for success against a team that has scored 27 runs in the first two games of this series. We get value here with a low total as I like our chances that each team gets to 4 runs here. That would mean a game that must end 5-4 at least and that would lead to a winning ticket for us. OVER 8.5 in Texas

MLB Saturday Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -120 @ Texas Rangers @ 4:05 ET - The Rangers had an insane 9-run bottom of the 4th versus the Phillies in Thursday's season opener. Texas was outscored 7-2 by the Phillies except for that 9-run 4th. Now that is not say the Rangers were not deserving of the win or that the complexion of the game did not change after that. But the point is that Philadelphia was not so bad except for one disaster half-inning. Look for the Phillies to respond in a big way here. Wheeler is their top pitcher and has a low BAA in recent seasons. Eovaldi coming off a solid season but look at his BAA numbers and they do not compare to Wheeler's. I expect Eovaldi to get lit up by the Phillies lineup that is still strong, even without Hoskins and Harper! As for Wheeler, he is certainly capable of dominating this start. The Phillies blew a 5-0 lead in that 11-7 loss Thursday. They were strong last season when coming off big losses. I look for that trend to continue here. Wheeler had a 1.50 ERA in his 2 starts against Texas last season. The Phils should bounce back big here and they offer solid money line value here at a low price with their ace on the mound. PHILADELPHIA -120

MLB Friday OVER 8 in San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies @ 9:40 ET - The Rockies pounded out 17 hits yesterday. Couple that with the fact the Padres are in bounce back mode and facing a Rockies pitcher that had a rough spring training and that they have hit hard in recent seasons, I look for plenty of runs here. Freeland has been absolutely rocked by the Padres each of the last two seasons and their newest addition, Bogaerts, pounded out 3 hits in yesterday's loss. The rest of the team will help him today and we'll see plenty of runs. Even though I respect Martinez, I still feel strongly that the Padres right-hander will get hit hard by the Rockies as they bring momentum from yesterday's game. Martinez gave up 22 hits in 16 innings in last season's meetings with the Rockies. Freeland faces a Padres lineup made stronger with the addition of Bogaerts and his past struggles versus San Diego bodes well for a Padres bounce back here. So both teams score well as I also like the fact 4 of Colorado's runs yesterday were against the relievers. OVER 8 in San Diego

MLB Thursday OVER 6.5 in Texas Rangers vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 4:05 ET - We get a low total of 6.5 here because Aaron Nola and Jacob deGrom are both highly respected pitchers and deservedly so. However, Nola got rocked in his final spring training start and contract extension discussions stalling out could be effecting his psyche. As for deGrom, he has been dealing with an issue in his left side and will be on a pitch count here. The Rangers lineup looks much improved. The Phillies lineup, even without Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins, looks ultra dangerous especially with the addition of Trea Turner. Both teams have some hitters coming in hot from spring training success. Last but certainly not least the wind is expected to be blowing out at a pretty good clip for this one. We get line value because of the big name pitchers involved but I feel all of the above variables including the weather should help lead the way to a game that gets to 7 runs at least. OVER 6.5 IN Texas

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +135 @ Houston Astros @ 8:03 ET - Action on pitchers. Expected starters are Wheeler and Valdez. The Phillies right-hander got roughed up in his only start in this series while the Astros southpaw was great. The odds makers did not get the memo. They opened up with Houston, at home, laying only a -135 price in this one. Sure looks easy to take the Astros at home here, right? You know what happens when something looks too easy usually, right? Well the thing is Wheeler is capable of throwing a gem and the Phillies powerful lineup is certainly capable of coming up big against Valdez in the rematch. This series has the feel of a 7-game series and I am confident we are going to get there. Don't let the line fool you. The Phillies are the play here. The last 4 times when Wheeler was making a road start and Philadelphia had lost in his prior start, the Phillies won that game all 4 times. Look for the run to improve to 5-0 here as the underdogs get back up off the mat to force a Game 7 even though no one else believes in them here. 10* PHILADELPHIA +135

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +147 vs Houston Astros @ 8:03 ET - Action on pitchers. Remember when the Phillies lost to Astros 10-0 early last month when they faced Verlander the night after clinching a post-season berth? Then remember what happened when they faced Verlander in Game 1 of this series and got the huge comeback win? Lets throw out the outlier that the double digit loss was given the situation. The last 6 times the Phillies are off a loss by a single digit margin they have won their next game all 6 times! That includes every time in this post-season including their first game of the post-season too when they were off a loss in their regular season finale. Syndergaard may not pitch more than 3 innings here so this is more about the bullpens and the Phillies bullpen has been great. I know Verlander is a great pitcher but he has now struggled in 2 of his 3 starts in the post-season. Also, this will be his first road start since September! Of course he is a veteran pitcher and he is a fantastic pitcher but still a road start against a team that just came back on you when you had a 5-0 lead is not the easiest. After Phillies got no-hit yesterday, look for them to connect on some big shots against Verlander and that will be enough to get the crucial home game for them as they know this game is essentially do or die. If they lose Game 5 at home they would have to win both games at Houston and that is not likely. All signs point to a Phillies bounce back here no matter the starting pitchers. Grab the home dog! One final interesting note here is these teams have played 37 innings so far and the Astros have scored in only 5 of the frames. The Phillies have not been tremendously better but they entered last night's game with runs scored in 8 of 27 innings prior to Wednesday's loss. After getting no-hit at home I am sure this powerhouse lineup bounces back tonight. Look for Phillies to make it 7-0 last 7 times they were off a loss by a single digit margin. 10* PHILADELPHIA +147

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play UNDER 7.5 in Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros @ 8:03 ET - Action on pitchers. When a team hits 5 homers in a game with a total of only 7.5 runs and it still stays under the total that says a lot! That was Game 3 last night. This followed a Game 2 in Houston that also totaled 7 runs. I am looking for 7 or less again tonight. This one looks like it will be the lowest-scoring of the bunch the way I see it. I will make this wager with action on pitchers as I expect things to tighten up a bit at the plate in this one and the losing team has scored an average of just 1 run last two games. Could this be a 2-1 pitchers duel? I sure think so. Cristian Javier is expected to get the start here and he is so tough to hit and has been pitching extremely well late in the year. Also, the Phillies do not have experience against him so this is a big edge for Javier. As for Philadelphia's expected starter Aaron Nola, I am looking for a bounce back effort at home after he struggled in Game 1 of this series. Nola has been rock solid at Citizens Bank Park throughout his career and I expect his breaking stuff, which can be devasting to hitters, to be on point in this one at home where he is so comfortable on the mound. 10* UNDER 7.5 in Philadelphia

NOTE: A lot of this is from yesterday's write-up (game rained out) but I am still going with this play though Suarez is now expected to start instead of Syndergaard in this one: MLB Tuesday MLB 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +115 vs Houston Astros @ 8:03 ET - Action on pitchers. Remember when the Phillies lost to Astros 10-0 early this month when they faced Verlander the night after clinching a post-season berth? Then remember what happened when they faced Verlander in Game 1 of this series and got the huge comeback win? Lets throw out the outlier that the double digit loss was given the situation. The last 5 times the Phillies are off a loss by a single digit margin they have won their next game all 5 times! That includes every time in this post-season including their first game of the post-season too when they were off a loss in their regular season finale. Suarez is averaging only 3 and 2/3 innings last 4 starts so this is more about the bullpens and the Phillies bullpen has been great and is well-rested here. McCullers expected to get more work than Suarez here but McCullers just got rocked by a Yankees team that was struggling to hit anyone in this post-season. That is not a good sign for McCullers as he now faces a Phillies lineup that is so confident and has hit so well at home. This one turns into a home rout in my opinion. All signs point to a Phillies bounce back here no matter the starting pitchers. Grab the home dog! 10* PHILADELPHIA +115

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +130 @ Houston Astros @ 8:03 ET - Action on pitchers. Game 1 played out in the best way possible for the Phillies. The old saying of "a win is a win" is very true but, in this case, there might be no win better than that one for the Phillies to have a solid shot at winning the World Series. They were down 5-0 and on the road and facing a guy by the name of Justin Verlander! The fact the Phillies came back to tie it up quickly and then to eventually win it in the 10th inning is a huge boost in confidence. Philadelphia already came into this series with confidence but now they are starting to really believe. That makes for a dangerous dog and this is especially true when they have their best pitcher on the mound. Zack Wheeler over Framber Valdez here but I really don't care who the pitchers are. You saw how unimportant that was again yesterday. Hats off to Tucker for a huge game for the Astros but this Phillies team still has the more complete and confident lineup right now and that will shine through again here today. 10* PHILADELPHIA +130 

MLB Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +155 @ Houston Astros @ 8:03 ET - I am not going to sit here and tell you negative things about the Astros and Justin Verlander. The fact is this play is all about the line value. We get a red hot Phillies team with a pitcher capable of dominating and that pitcher, Aaron Nola, is from Baton Rouge LA which is only a 4 hour drive from Houston. Rest assured that making this World Series start near where he grew up is extra special. Nola has proven to be a big game pitcher and he was excellent on the road this season. He enters this start having allowed 1 earned run or less in 10 of his last 15 starts dating back the regular season. He is off a rare bad start at San Diego and in the regular season this year, when he was off a start in which he allowed 5 or more earned runs, he allowed a TOTAL of just 2 earned runs in 5 starts! That's right, after those 5 bad starts, he allowed 1 earned run twice and 0 earned runs 3 times. Complete dominance. Verlander did dominate the Phillies when he faced them earlier this month but the Phillies, who clinched a National League Wild Card berth the day before, rested a number of their regular starting position players including Jean Segura, Nick Castellanos, J.T. Realmuto, Rhys Hoskins and Kyle Schwarber! Verlander is off a great post-season start versus the Yankees but got rocked by the Mariners in the start before that. He is a great pitcher and the Astros are a great team but there is something special going on with this Phillies team right now. Nola is capable of a dominating start here and the Phillies have some long-ball hitters that could surprise Verlander here with a couple of key homers. ACTION ON PITCHERS as I am riding the big dog Phillies for a shocker in Game 1 no matter the starting pitching write-up. 10* Philadelphia +155

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -135 vs San Diego Padres @ 2:37 ET - Action on pitchers. I do like this pitching match-up in terms of being in favor of the Phillies but either way I like Philadelphia here. San Diego had lost 7 of 12 games before coming up with 3 straight wins over the rival Dodgers. Now the Padres have lost 3 of 4 to the Phillies so far in this series including B2B games here in Philly. Coming back from giving up 4 runs in the top of the first yesterday shows the strength of this Philadelphia team this season both physically and mentally. Philly has the stronger lineup that is more confident right now and Phillies just seem like a team of destiny right now. Everything has fallen into place for them during a magical run and now lets talk about the expected starting pitchers as Phillies go for 9th win in 11th post-season game thus far. Zack Wheeler has allowed just 1 homer in his last 7 starts! Conversely, Yu Darvish has allowed 6 homers in his 3 post-season starts. Darvish also struggled with the longball late this season and this Phillies team is loaded with dangerous power. He pitched very well against Philly in San Diego but still was done in by 2 homers in the game while Wheeler pitched a 1-hitter over 7 scoreless innings in that match-up with Darvish! Now they meet again in Philly and Wheeler had a 1.85 ERA at home this season while Darvish had a 3.50 ERA on the road this season. I am riding this streaking Phillies team again and taking action on the pitchers as I look for them to avoid having to go back to San Diego and to punch their ticket to the World Series today! 10* PHILADELPHIA -135

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -105 vs San Diego Padres @ 7:45 ET - Action on pitchers. The Phillies are 17-5 last 22 home games including 3-0 in post-season. Overall, Philadelphia was 6-2 so far in the post-season before Nola's rare bad start in Game 2 cost them and they are now 7-3 in playoffs after they bounced back with a win last night. You can see why, regardless of the pitching match-up here, I like the Phillies at home at a great price for this as it is in the pick'em range. Now I will briefly touch on the pitchers. Mike Clevinger starts for San Diego and he got rocked at LA by Dodgers last week. That was 4th straight ugly road outing for him dating back to regular season as each of his last 3 in regular season were rough. Now he pitches at Philly where the Phils do tend to hit much better than when on the road. As for Bailey Falter, he was a pleasant surprise for the Phillies this season. Yes, there could be some rust here after the layoff but I expect the lefty to settle in nicely at home in this one. The Phillies bullpen has been solid too in this post-season. The Phils continue to be under-valued by the betting markets and we'll continue to take advantage. 10* PHILADELPHIA -105

MLB Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +103 vs San Diego Padres @ 7:37 ET - Action on pitchers. The Phillies are 16-5 last 21 home games including 2-0 in post-season. The Phillies are 5-2 last 7 times they were at home and coming off a loss. Philadelphia was 6-2 so far in the post-season before Nola's rare bad start in Game 2 cost them. The Padres are 0-3 last 3 times they were off a win in which they scored more than 5 runs. You can see why, regardless of the pitching match-up here, I like the Phillies at home at a great price for this as it is in the pick'em range. Now I will briefly touch on the pitchers. Certainly Joe Musgrove is solid but he had one of his worst starts of the season in his only outing against the Phillies this season as he allowed 6 earned runs and that start wasn't even at Philly where the Phils do tend to hit better. As for Suarez, he finished the regular season with a bad start versus Astros but that was on short rest and he could have been wearing down late in the season. He had just 4 days off between games and tends to better with 5 or 6 in between. Now, after a tough post-season start where he struggled with command of his pitches, he is very well rested here as he has not pitched in over a week and I expect he'll bounce back strong here. 10* PHILADELPHIA +103

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play New York Yankees Money Line +145 @ Houston Astros @ 7:37 ET - Action on pitchers. Look for Yankees to bounce back here after dropping Game 1 in a very tough scheduling situation after just wrapping up their series with the Guardians the night before in New York. Now the Yankees are settled here in Houston and I look for them to bounce back in Game 2. I will touch on the starting pitchers though they are not the most important factor for me. I know Severino struggled in his post-season start and it was on the road. However, he gave up only 16 hits over 40 innings on the road dating back to mid-May this season. Severino has been fantastic on the road and I feel he will come up big here. Valdez is off a solid post-season start for the Astros but he did have some struggles late this season and I have a feeling the Yankees bigger hitters are going to do some damage in this game tonight. New York is 6-2 last 8 times when off a loss. Houston is 4-0 so far in the post-season and on a 6-game run dating back to the regular season. However, this matches their longest winning streak of the year which means #7 is again likely to be a loss. The odds favor that. Prior to this 6-game run the Astros were 2-6 this season when entering a game on a winning streak of 4 or more games. The run ends here as the Yankees get back in this series with a big win tonight. 10* NEW YORK YANKEES +145

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +110 @ San Diego Padres @ 4:35 ET - Action on pitchers. I do like this pitching match-up in terms of being in favor of the Phillies but either way I like Philadelphia here. San Diego had lost 7 of 12 games before coming up with 3 straight wins over the rival Dodgers. As mentioned yesterday, 2 of the last 3 times Padres entered a game on a winning streak of 3 games they lost the 4th game and it happened again yesterday as San Diego barely managed to even get any hits. Philly has the stronger lineup that is more confident right now and Phillies just seem like a team of destiny right now. Everything has fallen into place for them during a magical run and now lets talk about the expected starting pitchers as Phillies go for 7th win in 8th post-season game thus far. Snell was better against the Dodgers than in his first start of the playoffs against the Mets but still he has nearly a 2.00 WHIP so far in this post-season which means he is averaging allowing a total of 2 baserunners per inning! Not good! Also, Snell struggled in his 2 starts versus Phillies this season. Nola has not allowed a single earned run in his two post-season starts and in 4 of last 5 dating back to regular season. Nola's only drawback, and it has not happened much lately, is he is susceptible to one bad inning. But that has happened much lately and the way the Padres are doing I don't know if they can string anything together against him like that anyway. But truly if you check his starts he almost always hangs goose eggs on the scoreboard for the opposition and then for the games that don't go like that nearly all the way through, he'll have one bad inning where he gives up a 3-run homer or a 4-spot. I just don't see that happening with San Diego and Nola's stuff has been so sharp he should be able to come up with another gem here. Either way, regardless of starting pitching, I like the Phillies here. This Phillies team is loaded with dangerous power. I am grabbing the underdog value here with a streaking Phillies team and taking action on the pitchers as I look for them to take Game 2 Wednesday as note their bullpen has also been rock solid as well! 10* PHILADELPHIA +110

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +115 @ San Diego Padres @ 8:03 ET - Action on pitchers. I do like this pitching match-up in terms of being in favor of the Phillies but either way I like Philadelphia here. San Diego had lost 7 of 12 games before coming up with 3 straight wins over the rival Dodgers. 2 of the last 3 times Padres entered a game on a winning streak of 3 games they lost the 4th game. Philly has the stronger lineup that is more confident right now and Phillies just seem like a team of destiny right now. Everything has fallen into place for them during a magical run and now lets talk about the expected starting pitchers as Phillies go for 6th win in 7th post-season game thus far. Zack Wheeler has allowed just 1 homer in his last 6 starts! Conversely, Yu Darvish has allowed 4 homers in his 2 post-season starts. I know what you are thinking...those were on the road and now he is at home...but, he actually has allowed 9 homers in his last 5 home starts! Darvish has struggled with the longball late this season and this Phillies team is loaded with dangerous power. I am grabbing the underdog value here with a streaking Phillies team and taking action on the pitchers as I look for them to take Game 1 Tuesday! 10* PHILADELPHIA +115

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Cleveland Guardians +145 or +150 @ New York Yankees @ 4:07 ET - Action on pitchers. Rain out yesterday so now it likely will be Nestor Cortes going for the Yankees instead of Jameson Taillon. Note that Taillon coming out of the bullpen would be great too. The Guardians have had the better pen in this series and Taillon would be seeking redemption after being charged with the loss in Game 2 despite recording an official ZERO innings of work! How did this happen? He came on in relief in the 10th inning and allowed 3 straight hits and 2 runs without recording an out! Were it not for Clarke Schmidt getting out of a man on second with no outs situation, Taillon would have been charged with 3 runs instead of just 2. I know he would want to bounce back here but also he did allow 4 earned runs in 2 of his last 4 regular season starts too. Even if Taillon does not end up pitching here note that Cortes allowed 6 hits and 3 walks in 5 innings of work against Cleveland earlier in this series and now is starting on short rest. No matter the starters I like the Guardians here but I will mention that Cleveland expected starter Aaron Civale had a 3.00 ERA in his final 10 regular season starts. Again, this pick is action so is not just about the pitchers. I feel all the pressure is on the Yankees here to win at home and note they are 1-4 the last 5 times they were off a win! As for the Guardians, they were on a 28-7 (80% WIN RATE) last 35 games prior to Sunday's loss. The road team pulls off the shocker here and I love the money line value in this one! 10* CLEVELAND +145 or +150

Sunday MLB 10* Top Play Cleveland Guardians Run Line +1.5 -115 vs New York Yankees @ 7:07 ET - All the momentum and the home field edge with Guardians here. Each and every season it seems Yankees find a way to disappoint their huge fan base. They had a great regular season but they have now had B2B gut-wrenching losses! They lost 4-2 in Game 2 in New York in 10 innings. Then they took a 5-3 lead to bottom of 9th yesterday at Cleveland but still lost. I know Cole is a fantastic pitcher but Cleveland had a few chances in that Game One 4-1 loss and I feel they will be even better here against him. The Guardians confidence is sky high right now and of course now they get Cole at home. I also expect Quantrill to be even better here because he is at home for this one. He was 9-0 with a 3.28 ERA in the regular season in home starts! Cole had a solid, yet modest, 3.81 ERA in road outings this season. Also, he allowed 14 runs (13 earned) and 7 homers over his last 4 road starts and those outings averaged only 5 and 2/3 per start. Anyway I am going with action on pitchers as the Guardians wrapped up the regular season on a 24-6 run and 2 of those 6 losses were by just 1 run so I like the very strong odds on at least a run line cover though I do feel Cleveland will win outright here to advance to ALCS. Guardians already 3-0 in home games in this post-season. 10* CLEVELAND run line +1.5 -115

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +110 vs Atlanta Braves @ 2:07 ET - Action on pitchers. No one wants to believe in these Phillies. Not even the betting markets. This line opened with Philadelphia as a slight favorite and I feel strongly the odds makers had it right. However, the markets have turned this one around and now the Braves are as high as a -125 favorite here. First off, regardless of the pitching match-up, I like the Phillies here. They have been hotter at home than the Braves have been on the road. Also, they have unquestionably the better and stronger lineup than Atlanta and proved that again yesterday. Atlanta misses Freddie Freeman and of course Ronald Acuna is not the same guy he was before. He just has not been right. So that is two big bats that were key to past Braves success. Phillies at home in front of a raucous crowd, I don't see how you fade that. I am assuming it is the anti-Syndergaard sentiment and I get that. He is unlikely to dominate here. But he has had some solid outings for Philly and one thing helping him in that regard here in terms of odds of being solid is that he is at home and also that he has pitched only 1 inning against Atlanta the last 3 seasons combined! That means the Braves do not have much familiarity with him. This is completely the opposite of the situation with Charlie Morton. He has started FIVE times against the Phillies this season alone and he has been hit hard in 4 of the 5 outings including all 3 in Philly. Look for the Phils to punch their ticket to the NLCS Saturday! 10* PHILADELPHIA +110

MLB Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -115 vs Atlanta Braves @ 4:37 ET - Action on pitchers because Braves not even 100% sure who they are going with as a starter here. Perhaps Strider as more of an opener here or Morton as more of a traditional starter here. Either way I like the Phillies here to bounce back at home off that Game 2 shutout loss. The Phillies are 22-9 last 31 home games and this will be their first home game in almost 3 weeks! The fact Philadelphia still was getting the job done on the road so far in this post-season says a lot as they had won 3 straight away from home. Now the Phillies should have Aaron Nola on the mound. Again I like Philly at home here no matter who pitches but now will touch on Nola in this spot. Throughout this career Nola has had fantastic success in home starts for Philly. Also, his repertoire of pitches was looking phenomenal down the stretch run and he can be so tough when he is "on" as he so often is when he is at home. Nola has a record of 39-17 in home outings the last 6 seasons combined! The Braves are 6-9 last 15 road games. That is a 40% win rate while the Phillies winning 71% of their home games over the past few months! 10* PHILADELPHIA -115

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 6.5 in Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners @ 3:37 ET - Action on pitchers. First off, the Mariners 7 of last 8 games have totaled 7 or more runs. In fact, those 8 games have averaged 12 runs per game. This is excellent value with the low total here. The Astros have won 8 of 11 games and scored an average of 5.3 runs per game in those games. This is why I really don't care what pitchers do go but the expected match-up is Castillo versus Valdez. Note that Castillo is off another season in which he is worse on the road that at home. This is nothing new with him and I expect that trend to continue here. As for Valdez, he has great full season numbers but he did allow 3 earned runs both of the times he faced the Mariners. Also, he is coming off a September in which he was hit hard in 3 of the 5 starts including 2 in which he really got rocked. 10* OVER 6.5 in Houston

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play San Diego Padres +1.5 -130 @ Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:37 ET - Action on pitchers. Of course the Dodgers are a great team and Kershaw is a fantastic pitcher. However, Darvish is a solid pitcher in his own right and he is off the great start versus the Mets which is part of the reason San Diego advanced to this NLDS. Darvish also had some solid outings versus the Dodgers this season and I expect another solid outing from him here. I like the Padres no matter the starting pitchers here as I am looking for a big bounce back here. In last night's loss San Diego did have more hits than Los Angeles but the difference in the 5-3 loss was LA went 3 for 8 with runners in scoring position while San Diego went 0 for 4 with runners in scoring position. Dodgers actually were on a 5-6 run last 11 home games prior to last night's win. In fact, in last dozen home games prior to last night's win only 5 of the 12 games were Dodgers wins by 2 or more runs. Like the value of the +1.5 with San Diego in this one. Prior to an ugly regular season loss in their season finale, the Padres were on an 11-6 run in which only 2 of the 6 losses were by more than a single run. That means that at +1.5 runs San Diego was 15-2 in those 17 games. This is going to be another tight game tonight and the +1.5 runs could prove invaluable in this one but an outright upset for the road team also would not surprise me in the least here. 10* SAN DIEGO +1.5

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 7 in New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians @ 7:37 ET - I know this is playoff baseball but I like this over regardless of the starting pitchers. In road games Cleveland has won 11 of last 12 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game in those dozen games! The Yankees are one of the best home teams in baseball and have averaged 5 runs per game at home this season. New York won 9 of last 11 home games this season and scored an average of 7 runs per game in the 10 games that went full 9 innings (one was rain-shortened to 6 innings). So both teams should hit just fine here on a mild evening in the Bronx and the ball should carry well. That is why I like this over regardless of starting pitchers but I will mention that Cole was only 4-6 with a 4.12 ERA in the second half of the season. Also, Quantrill was great at home but he was only 6-5 in road games and opponents hit .282 against him away from home this season. Also, he got hit a .300 clip in September and this was 3rd time in 4 months that opponents hit at least .282 against him. He is not a big strikeout pitcher and that bodes well for a Yankees club that was better this season in terms of striking out but still strike out a little bit too frequently. That should not be an issue here and, by the way, the Guardians struck out the least of any team in the league this season. Put the ball in play and good things can happen. This total opened up as high as a 7.5 and I am now even seeing some 6.5 start to pop up on this one. 10* OVER 7 in New York Yankees

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line +1.5 -130 @ Atlanta Braves @ 1:07 ET - Phillies have a great shot at stealing Game 1 of this series but, even if they do not, a 1-run loss would be the most likely type of defeat they suffer. Suarez was great against the Braves late in the season. In his last 3 starts against them he allowed a total of only 1 earned run. As for Fried, in his last 3 starts against the Phillies this season he allowed a total of 6 earned runs. The Atlanta lefty allowed 9 hits in 6 innings in one of those starts and allowed 2 homers in another one of the starts versus Philadelphia. Regardless of the starting pitching match-up here, I like the fact the Phillies are rolling with confidence right now after their big comeback win in Game 1 of the Cardinals series and then getting a shutout win in Game 2 at St Louis. Could the time off for Braves hurt them here? They have, of course, not played a game in nearly a week. Of Atlanta's last 15 games of the regular season only 6 (40%) were wins by 2 or more runs. 10* PHILADELPHIA +1.5 -130

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 6.5 in New York Mets vs San Diego Padres @ 7:07 ET - Action on pitchers. Okay so I know this is an elimination game and those tend to play out to be tighter low-scoring games. However, this is unique in this wild card round because is not like in a regular series where you may have aces going in the elimination game. These two teams already used their best pitchers Friday and Saturday. Now on Sunday the scheduled pitching match-up is Musgrove versus Bassitt. Certainly both pitchers capable of a solid start but also each capable of getting roughed up a bit on the regular. Simply put these are not aces. Consider that plus each of the first two games of this series got to at least 8 runs. Consider also that 5 homers were hit Friday and 3 homers hit Saturday. All these factors have me lining up on the over here regardless of the starting pitching match-up. Take action on the pitchers and look for at least 7 runs here. 10* OVER 6.5 in New York Mets

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -110 @ St Louis Cardinals @ 8:37 ET - Action on pitchers. This play is all about the momentum as well as the mental state of each club after Phillies came back huge in the top of the 9th for 6 runs in yesterday's win! Winning game 1 in a best of 3 is huge and Philadelphia will draw off the high emotion and I expect them to hit well at the plate today. The expected pitching match-up is Nola and Mikolas so it is a good one. But look for the key to be the above and now I will briefly touch on the expected pitching match-up as the Phillies look to close this one out with their long-time ace on the mound. Nola has a 3.00 ERA in road games this season, had a 2.93 ERA in September and had a no-hitter going with two outs in 7th inning in his most recent start. He is in top form to say the least. The Cardinals Mikolas is known for being solid at home but he had a 4.39 ERA in the 2nd half of the season and that was two runs higher than his ERA in the first half of the season. Look for Phillies to close this out today because, as I mentioned yesterday, they also have the deeper lineup in this match-up. The only 2 runs the Cardinals got yesterday were off a reliever who gave up his first runs since August! Yes, this Phillies bullpen has some solid arms too! 10* PHILADELPHIA -110

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 7 runs in Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners @ 4:07 ET - The Mariners got the shutout win yesterday. The Blue Jays bounce back today. I like this play no matter the starting pitchers but will mention that Ray was not as good in the 2nd half of the season as the first. Also, Ray is not as good on the road as he is at home. Ray wrapped up the season allowing 4 or more earned runs in 3 of last 5 starts. Gausman also struggled a bit recently plus left his last start with a laceration on a finger on this throwing hand. He was already struggling and now this in the back of his mind won't help things either. I know the Mariners have a good bullpen but Blue Jays off a home shutout are going to respond here against Ray and whoever else Seattle ends up throwing at them in this one. As for the Mariners lineup they should hit Gausman had as his struggles continue. Note that Seattle has now won 8 of 10 and scored an average of 5 runs per game. The Jays, prior to yesterday's loss, had won 11 of 18 and scored an average of 6 runs per game during this stretch. I totally understand the total being set at 7 here but feel it will prove to be far too low given all of the above. 10* OVER 7 in Toronto

MLB Friday 10* Top Play Toronto Blue Jays -130 vs Seattle Mariners @ 4:07 ET - Action on pitchers. The Mariners wrapped up the season losing 7 of last 10 road games and I feel the Blue Jays home edge will be a factor here. The home team won 6 of 7 games between these teams this season. Toronto wrapped up the season with wins in 8 of last 11 games. The Jays finished the regular season on a 31-16 run. I know the Mariners have a solid bullpen but I really like this Toronto lineup much more than that of Seattle's. Regardless of the starting pitchers I like the Blue Jays but now I will touch on them here. The Jays Alex Manoah is now 25-9 with a 2.60 ERA and a .198 BAA in his young career. This guy is a beast on the mound! As for the Mariners Luis Castillo, he most definitely is a solid veteran. However, he was just 4-5 in road games this season and his day game ERA was more than a full run higher than his night game ERA this season. I don't think the lesser numbers on the road are a fluke either. Last season, Castillo went 2-8 with a 4.87 ERA in road games! In 2020 he was 2-5 with a 4.12 ERA away from home! Keep in mind that it is not just the venue pitch in or that you are away from home. When you are a visiting pitcher you are "waiting around" to start the game. Some guys do well with that. But many, like Castillo, like to be at home and be that first hurler on the mound as, of course, the visitors always bat first! Circling back to the biggest key here, home team with stronger lineup! Lay it! 10* TORONTO -130

MLB Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -105 @ St Louis Cardinals @ 2:07 ET - Action on pitchers. Expected starters are Zack Wheeler and Jose Quintana. The Cardinals went 8-5 against the Nationals and Marlins this season. Against the rest of NL East they went 8-13. This is a quality St Louis team for sure but lets not forget they certainly were helped by beating up on weaker teams in their division like the Cubs, Pirates and Reds! The Phillies are 28-18 against left-handed starters this season. I like this play regardless of the pitchers as this is the only game on the board in which the home team is not a favorite. Trust me, this line is a pick'em for a reason and the Phillies have the bigger bats in this match-up. Note too that Quintana has a 5.40 ERA in post-season appearances and that was 5 years ago when he was with the Cubs. Also, this season he was winless with a 3.74 ERA in his 11 day game starts. Wheeler is back now for Phillies and healthy. This was the 3rd straight season he has an ERA of 2.92 or less for the season! He is a beast and held opponents to a batting average of .221 this season after holding them to just .215 last season. Wheeler went 2-0 against the Cardinals with a 0.00 ERA and just 9 hits allowed in 14 scoreless innings of work! Of course I like the pitching edges here but even if these starters do not go I like this play. Hence, action on the pitchers. Keep in mind the Phillies now have Bryce Harper and Jean Segura back and made the playoffs despite NEITHER one of those guys making the century mark in games played in the regular season. 10* PHILADELPHIA -105

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs @ 4:10 ET - Action on pitchers. As I have stated many times in the past, the odds makers are some of the sharpest people around. There is a reason that of only about a half dozen games with early lines available on the final day of the regular season, this was has the HIGHEST total despite the Reds being a low-scoring SLUMP that has gone for weeks. Historically I love playing overs in day games in Cincinnati and I do look for Reds pitcher Graham Ashcraft to get rocked here. The right-hander is winless in his 6 day games starts this season and has a 6.52 ERA in those outings and has been hit at over a .300 clip! The Cubs had been hot coming into this series and I expect them to pound him. The Reds also should tee off. I know Chicago's Adrian Sampson has solid numbers this season including against the Reds. However, his lone start here in Cincinnati saw him allow 6 hits and walk 3 in just 4 innings. Suffice to say, Sampson was fortunate the damage was only 2 earned runs. Last year against Cincy, the Cubs right-hander allowed 11 hits in 9 innings of work. It has been awhile since Reds off B2B wins but the last time they had won 2 straight they then made it 3 straight with another win in which they scored 8 runs. As for the Cubs sticks bouncing back here, they entered this series having won 11 of 12 and scoring an average of 5 runs per game in their last 8 victories. They will bounce back here after B2B losses and the Reds also look to close out the season with a bang at home and that is why, regardless of starting pitchers (my play is action), I am going with the over here. 10* OVER 8 in Cincinnati

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 7 runs in Oakland A's vs Los Angeles Angels @ 4 ET - Action on pitchers. We get a low total because Ohtani is on the mound for the Angels and because the A's are known for struggling to score runs. I am going to take advantage here for multiple reasons. First off, the Angels just faced a lefty in last night's 2-1 tenth inning loss. Their lineup only featured one left-handed bat and that was Ohtani. That is a key here because Waldichuk is a left-handed hurler for the A's and he has been strong against lefties but righties are hitting over .300 against him and overall the rookie has struggled. I am looking for the Angels to bounce back here as they had been winning a lot of games and scoring well prior to last night's loss. They should crush Waldichuk and get this over by themselves. However, don't be surprised if Oakland scratches some runs off Ohtani. Yes he is tough but, throughout his career, his numbers on the road have paled in comparison to his numbers when he is starting on his home mound. Take advantage of the low total and, regardless of the starting pitchers (my play is action), we get payback for last night's ugly loss with our over involving these teams. The final men left on base tally for the game was 20 in 10 innings. 10* OVER 7 in Oakland

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 7 runs in Oakland A's vs Los Angeles Angels @ 9:40 ET - Action on pitchers. Regulars know we had this play last night and, on the one hand, we were fortunate to win last night. That's because the game was 4-0 heading to bottom of the 8th and then A's got 2 in the 8th and 2 in the 9th to force extra innings and won it in the bottom of the 10th. While I am grateful for the win for sure 100% I do feel it is one we deserved all along. No game on the board last night had as many hits as ours did and it was simply a game of wasted opportunities for Oakland before the late breakthrough. The A's left 13 men on base in the game! As I mentioned in yesterday's write-up, the Angels have been hot very late in the season and A's home games very quietly have been higher-scoring recently than people realize. I look for these trends to continue here and that is why I like this one regardless of who the starting pitchers end up being. Take action on this one. However, I will say that the expected starters are Michael Lorenzen and Cole Irvin. Note that Lorenzen is 2-4 with a 6.49 ERA in road starts and Irvin has an 8.23 ERA with a .351 batting average against in his 5 September starts. Look for Lorenzen's road struggles to continue against a surprisingly confident Athletics lineup and look for Angels to add to the late-season misery Irvin has been suffering. 10* OVER 7 in Oakland

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 7 in Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins @ 8:10 ET - Action on pitchers. I know these teams fell short yesterday but I look for a lot more scoring here on a pleasant fall evening in Chicago. The White Sox last homestand saw the 6 games average 9 runs apeice. Now we are seeing a total as low as 7 on this one. It has dropped too low. Chicago has allowed an average of 6 runs per game last 7 home games even including yesterday's low-scoring 3-2 win. The Twins last 7 road games before yesterday's 3-2 loss had averaged 8 runs per game. Again, this total just creeping too low. I get it, based on current trending, but yet you can see why expecting this game to get to 8 or 9 runs is not expecting too much. I like this game regardless of the starting pitching but the expected starters also further strengthen this one. Lucas Giolito is 4-7 with a 6.43 ERA at home this season. Josh Winder is 0-3 with a 6.29 ERA in his last 5 starts. 10* OVER 7 in Chicago White Sox

MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 7 in Oakland A's vs Los Angeles Angels @ 9:40 ET - Action on pitchers. This is a low total because the A's are known for struggling so bad at the plate and because the Angels have Patrick Sandoval on the mound. However, Sandoval has been hit at a .275 clip this month and has a 1.40 WHIP in September so he seems to be fading a bit here late in the season. Plus he just faced Oakland and they got to him for 3 earned runs in 5 innings in that one last week. This is a late-season match-up between two teams both just playing out the string on the season as post-season hopes were gone long ago. That said, this is when hitters are most relaxed at the plate and the Angels are indeed playing their best baseball of the season. Los Angeles has won 7 straight games and averaged 5.3 runs per game during this stretch. The Angels will tee off on a struggling Adrian Martinez as he has been roughed up over his last 4 starts with 19 earned runs allowed on 29 hits in 18.1 innings of work. He also just faced the Angels and they got to him for 3 earned runs in under 5 innings of work. The total posted here makes sense based on long-term metrics but it does not make sense based on the current situation. Even the A's are off a 10-3 win yesterday on the road and are now back home where each of their last 4 games totaled MORE than 10 runs and, in fact, averaged 14 runs apiece! That is DOUBLE the total posted on this game! Over is 4-0 L4 A's home games! 10* OVER 7 in Oakland

MLB Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +115 @ Houston Astros @ 9:40 ET - Action on pitchers. The Phillies magic number is 1. The Astros magic number is 0. What I mean by the latter is that the Astros have nothing to play for now. They wrapped up the top seed in the American League and they can not catch the Dodgers for the top spot in the majors heading into the post-season. That is why you are seeing what many might perceive to be a "Funny Line" on Houston here with the Astros opening as a small money line favorite here even though they are at home and having a huge season compared to Philadelphia. However, the key for the Phillies is that magic number of 1. They just need 1 win or 1 Brewers loss and they are heading straight to St Louis after this series to face the Cardinals in a best of 3 series in the first round. Phillies Nola is having a strong month in terms of performance but was done in by one bad inning versus Cubs in most recent start. One 3-run homer was the big difference in the game. As for the Astros McCullers, he is coming from an illness and his last start was skipped in the rotation. He may not be 100 percent. Again, my play is action no matter the pitchers anyway. The Phillies are highly motivated here and hungry for first post-season berth since 2011! The Astros could be resting regulars here to avoid injury prior to post-season starting. Houston won't rest everyone all at once but they just are not going to have a stacked lineup here most likely! 10* PHILADELPHIA +115

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers @ 4:07 ET - Late season game between two non-contenders and a pair of struggling starters on the mound. I will take the over here regardless of the pitchers. The Angels have won 6 straight games and have scored an average of 5 runs during this stretch. The Rangers have averaged only 4 runs per game last 10 but this is an afternoon game and there will not be any impressive starters on the mound. Those guys have already gone for each team recently so we see guys like Miller and Davidson in this one. The Rangers Miller was 4-7 with a 4.52 ERA in the minors this season so is not a big surprise he has a 6.94 ERA in his 5 MLB appearances so far in his young career. The Angels Davidson is 0-3 with a 9.45 ERA this month and opponents hitting over .300 against him. He is 2-8 with a 5.97 ERA in his young MLB career. Plenty of runs this afternoon in Anaheim. 10* OVER 8.5 in Los Angeles Angels

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -135 @ Washington Nationals @ 1:35 ET - Action on pitchers. The expected pitching match-up certainly favors the Phillies in a big way but there is also no getting around the fact that Philly has huge overall team edges in this match-up with Washington. They did drop Game 1 of yesterday's double-header but bounced back with a big win in Game 2. The Nationals are a horrible 17-55 in divisional games this season. The Phillies are 52-28 against teams with a losing record this season. Also, they are 27-17 against left-handed starters and the expected starter here is Corbin for the Nationals. He has had absolutely no success this season against the Phillies and been hit very hard in all 3 outings against them. The Nationals are going to struggle against Phillies expected starter Wheeler. He looks great since returning to the rotation and when he is on like this he is tough to beat. Also he dominated Washington in his only start against them this season. More of the same expected here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -135

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 runs in Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins @ 6:10 ET - Action on pitchers. This is a very low total when you consider recent results prior to yesterday's shutout loss for the Tigers. Also, Twins did score 7 runs in that win. Regardless of the starting pitchers I like the over here but I will mention them further below. First off, prior to yesterday's loss, Detroit had won 8 of 9 games and their last 10 games had seen them score an average of 5.2 runs per game. The Twins have won 4 of 6 games and scored an average of 5.5 runs per game during this stretch. Now, about those pitchers. Bundy is worse on the road than at home this season. Also he enters this outing have struggled badly in 3 of last 4 outings and he is not getting many strikeouts. Hutchison is 1-8 with a 5.12 ERA in home games this season and has a 6.20 ERA this month with opponents hitting nearly .300 against him. This one should see plenty of scoring early and often as, regardless of the starting pitchers, these teams have been trending well to see at least 8 runs here. 10* OVER 7.5 in Detroit

MLB Friday 8* Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -180 @ Washington Nationals @ 1:05 ET (Game 1 of double header) - Action on pitchers. Rain could mess up the rest of this series because of the hurricane moving up the east coast. They should be able to fully get in Game 1 before the rains really come but one of the reasons I am playing the money line here instead of the run line is because if this is a rain shortened game that goes at least 5 innings we still have a cashable ticket and I really like our chances with the Phillies here. So we will reduce our star rating on this one since the money line is a bit pricey. First off this is only the 3rd time this season they are entering a game on a 5-game losing streak. Look for them to win again in this spot and improve to 3-0 this season when in such a situation. They have dominated the Nationals and note that Washington is now an unreal 16-53 in divisional games this season. In terms of the pitching match-up Fedde is 1-4 with a 6.54 ERA and a .333 BAA since the all star break. The Phillies just rocked him recently and then he followed that up by getting hit hard B2B times by the light-hitting Marlins. He is in trouble here. As for Falter, he has been great away from home with a 2.87 ERA and he is 5-1 last 6 decisions. He is off a bad home start versus Braves but had been on a strong consistent run before that and bounces back here against one of the worst teams in the majors. Regardless of the pitchers, the Phillies once again manage to avoid a 6-game losing streak and get the job done here. 8* PHILADELPHIA -180 (Game 1 of double header)

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles @ 1:35 ET - Action on pitchers. The Orioles and Red Sox, prior to yesterday's surprising 3-1 final, have continued to get involved in wild high-scoring games. I am going action on pitchers here because honestly neither may work deep in this game anyway. Baumann has only made 2 starts out of 11 appearances this season. He is 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA in his 4 road appearances and he is unlikely to work deep here so this is truly more of a bullpen game for the Orioles and we saw how the Red Sox responded against the Baltimore bullpen earlier in this series. The Boston starter here is expected to be Nathan Eovaldi and he is returning from a right shoulder issue. He was not overly impressive in rehab outings. Also, he has a 6.26 ERA with a .322 batting average against in his 8 home starts this season. Prior to yesterday, the Orioles last 5 road games had all totaled at least 9 runs and their last 4 games overall had totaled an average of 18.5 runs apiece! The Red Sox have seen 5 of their last 7 games total at least 9 runs. Also, Boston has scored an average of 9.3 runs per game last 4 home games. They are known for hitting so well at home and even though cooler fall-like weather has started to move in it will be temperate for sure. Just a nice fall afternoon at the ballpark. So we'll take advantage and look for the hitters to rule the day after a rare off-day yesterday for both lineups. 10* OVER 9 in Boston

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -110 @ Chicago Cubs @ 7:40 ET - The Phillies off a tight 2-1 loss but should bounce back here. I am going with action on pitchers as I look for a Philadelphia bounce back either way but I will mention that the expected starters are Aaron Nola and Hayden Wesneski. Note that Nola has been dominant for much of this season and has a 2.08 ERA this month plus his road ERA is lower than his home ERA this year. As for Wesneski, I know he has impressive numbers for far but he struggled in his lone start against a better team, the Giants, while feasting on bad teams like the Reds and Pirates and a Rockies team that can not hit on the road. So the point is that he is due for a reality check here. His stuff is not overpowering and he had a rather high ERA in the minors this season. In other words, he is a little over-rated right now and the struggles will come in this game against a tough Phillies lineup. Philadelphia has had only one losing streak last longer than 3 games since the All Star Break. The Phillies have gone 4-1 the last 5 times they have entered a game on a 3-game losing streak. The visitors respond big here and win this by a multi-run margin. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -110

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:10 ET - Action on pitchers. The Orioles and Red Sox continue to get involved in wild high-scoring games. I know Kremer has pitched well of late but Boston is feeling it right now at home and he did struggle here in his only start at Fenway Park this season. Hill has struggled badly at home this season with a 2-4 record and a 5.87 ERA. Also, in night games this season, Hill has a 6.36 ERA this season. In the month of September, Hill has a 5.96 ERA and opponents have hit .305 against him this month. The Orioles last 5 road games have all totaled at least 9 runs. Their last 4 games overall have totaled an average of 18.5 runs apiece! The Red Sox have seen 5 of their last 6 games total at least 9 runs. Also, Boston has scored an average of 11.3 runs per game last 3 home games. They are known for hitting so well at home and it is one more mild day in the forecast for Boston today on Wednesday before cooler fall-like weather starts to move in. So we'll take advantage and look for the hitters to rule the night once again. 10* OVER 9 in Boston

MLB Tuesday 8* Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -160 @ Chicago Cubs @ 7:40 ET - Action on pitchers. The Cubs have lost 10 of last 15 home games. The Phillies won 3 of 4 against the Cubs in last season's series in Chicago and Philly took 2 of the 3 games at Citizens Bank Park also in the series there last season. Now it is time for this years road dominance in this series to continue. I say that because the Cubs won all 3 in Philly this season and you know Philly is wanting to return the favor right now at Wrigley Field. Regardless of starting pitching I expect the Phillies to be successful in that regard but now we will talk about the pitchers briefly. Wheeler just returned to the rotation and looked solid. He gives the Phillies an edge over Stroman. Yes, Stroman can be solid at times but do note he is 1-5 with a 6.31 ERA at home this season. Wheeler is 8-2 with a 2.08 ERA in night games this season. Both of those trends tested here and the better team, better lineup, and club chasing a wild card playoff berth gets it done here. Look for the road team to bounce back from B2B losses and get it done on the road here as they seek some revenge. 8* PHILADELPHIA -160

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals @ 6:40 ET - Action on pitchers. I like this play regardless of starters but will start with discussing the expected starting pitchers first. Joey Wentz has some solid numbers in limited action this season but his worst start was at home. Also, the big key here as he makes just the 6th start of his MLB career is the fact that he is facing the same team he saw a few weeks ago. This is the first time he has ever had to go a 2nd start against a team he already faced. Oftentimes young pitchers are more hittable in situations like this. As for Zack Greinke, he is known for often being stronger at home than on the road and this season that trending has been particularly pronounced. While he is 4-2 with a 2.32 ERA at home, Greinke is 0-7 with a 6.36 ERA on the road this season! Huge home/road dichotomy for him. Tigers have won 5 of 6 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game in the 5 victories. Royals have won 6 of 8 games and have scored an average of 6 runs per game in those 8 games. You can see why I am expecting plenty of runs in this one despite it being a chilly evening in Detroit for this one. Not cold but definitely cool but again the numbers show us what we should expect here and it should certainly be more than 8 given all of the above. 10* OVER 8 in Detroit

MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:10 ET - Action on pitchers as this is a hitter-friendly ballpark and hitter-friendly conditions are expected tonight. However, I will start with the expected starters here. The Orioles Jordan Lyles has a 5.48 ERA in road games this season and that is 2 runs higher than his home ERA. Also, the Red Sox have hammered Lyles this season and have hit him particularly hard last 3 meetings with 15 earned runs in just 12 innings. Boston has 25 hits in those 12 innings! As for Red Sox starter Connor Seabold, he has struggled in limited action in his MLB career. He is now 0-3 with a 10.47 ERA and .395 BAA in his 4 starts this season. Red Sox sticks struggled in weekend series with Yankees but now they are back at home. Boston is 8-4 last dozen home games and scored an average of 6 runs per game in these dozen games. Baltimore cooled off after a hot run from late July to mid-August. However, the Orioles still have a respectable lineup that enters this game having scored an average of 6 runs per game last 5 games. More of the same expected here as they bounce back from a 6-3 loss versus Houston yesterday. 10* OVER 9.5 in Boston

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:08 ET - Usually the way these series start is the way they go all the way through and this has been another high-scoring one between these teams. We just need 9 runs to be a winner with this one and each of the first 3 games in this series have reached at least that and yesterday's totaled a dozen runs. The last 15 games between these rivals have averaged about 11 runs per game and I look for another high-scoring one tonight. I know Cortes has good numbers for the Yankees this season but he did struggled in his first start against Boston this season. I know the second one, earlier this month, did go better for him but I like the way the Red Sox have been swinging the bats again and they have confidence heading into this one. As for Bello, he has a 0.90 ERA last two starts but that is deceiving as he has given up 14 hits in 10 innings spanning those two outings! One of those was against the Yankees and now they hit him harder in the rematch. He has been very hittable this season and gets hit hard here again. No matter the starting pitchers, I expect this one to fly over the total! 10* OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 10.5 in Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres @ 3:10 ET - Another high-scoring game expected here. These teams have had a lot of high-scoring games this season when they meet up and that resumed yesterday after a strange result Friday when the teams went a combined 3 for 19 with runners in scoring position. Now the runs are flowing in and that continues on a mild Sunday afternoon in Denver. Coors Field will see the ball carrying very well in this one and Clevinger is known for struggling on the road and this is not an easy venue to pitch in and he has struggled here this season. At the same time, Freeland is known for struggling more at home (naturally with the venue) and he has struggled against the Padres when facing them here this season. Off a 9-run outburst yesterday fueled by a 6-run inning, San Diego has extra confidence at the plate today and this one should get crazy as Rockies have yet to score well in this series and I sense they will mash today. It is not often they do not score well at home throughout a series and this is the right spot for them to smash the ball. 10* OVER 10.5 in Colorado

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 10.5 in Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres @ 8:10 ET - As mentioned yesterday, the Rockies are happy to see the Giants leave Denver! Colorado had just got swept by San Francisco and did not score well at all in any of the final 3 games of the 4-game sweep. Off a home shutout Thursday by a 3-0 count even though each team got to double digits in hits, I expected the runs to start pouring in now with the Padres coming to town. However, the teams went a ridiculous combined 3 of 19 with runners in scoring position yesterday! Look for more clutch hitting today for sure after that nonsense. These teams have had a lot of high-scoring games when they meet no matter the venue and I also like the fact that San Diego entered this series 13-8 last 21 road games. The Padres scored an average of nearly 7 runs per game in those 13 road victories! The Rockies should join the run-scoring party tonight as they have a tendency to pound Padres pitching when they face them here at Coors Field. No matter the starting pitchers here, I like the over in this one. But I will mention the expected starters are Yu Darvish and Chad Kuhl. Note that Darvish struggles more on the road including going 2-7 with a 5.54 ERA on the road last season. He also has struggled at times against the Rockies in recent seasons. As for Kuhl, he is winless with a 9.00 ERA and a .325 BAA in his 8 starts since All-Star break. My play is with action on pitchers! I'll take advantage of the line drop to 10.5 here! 10* OVER 10.5 in Colorado

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +120 vs Atlanta Braves @ 4:05 ET - Action on pitchers. We cashed in tremendous home dog value with the Phillies Thursday as a top play underdog and now will come right back with them again in similar situation Saturday after also cashing with them Friday as the favorite. Phillies won 9-1 yesterday and I love this spot too. The home team has now won 9 of last 11 games between these divisional rivals. Philadelphia is riding the momentum of big 9-1 win yesterday following 1-0 shutout win Thursday after Wednesday's dramatic 4-3 comeback win in extra innings. Riding the positive wave, the Phillies are going to be tough to beat here. Keep in mind this series is the Phillies final home series of the season! They have had this one circled as being of key importance in their quest for securing a wild card spot because it is a long road trip after this to close out the season. That said, I like this play regardless of pitchers here but will mention that Falter has been pitching very well and has a 2.25 ERA last 7 starts. Wright has an impressive record for Braves on season but he has been roughed up recently in the month of September and the Phillies are currently the much hotter lineup in comparison with Atlanta. Acuna (back) might miss again to day for Braves. I look for the home team to improve to 10-2 last 12 between these rivals. The Braves are actually just 1-6 last 7 road games and have been held to an average of just 1 run per game in 5 of the 6 losses! More of the same expected here. 10* PHILADELPHIA +120

MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 11.5 in Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres @ 8:10 ET - Rockies are happy to see the Giants leave Denver! Colorado just got swept by San Francisco and did not score well at all in any of the final 3 games of the 4-game sweep. Off a home shutout yesterday by a 3-0 count even though each team got to double digits in hits, look for the runs to start pouring in today with the Padres now in town. These teams have had a lot of high-scoring games when they meet no matter the venue and I also like the fact that San Diego is 13-8 last 21 road games. The Padres scored an average of nearly 7 runs per game in those 13 road victories! The Rockies should join the run-scoring party tonight as they have a tendency to pound Padres pitching when they face them here at Coors Field. No matter the starting pitchers here, I like the over in this one. But I will mention the expected starters are Sean Manaea and Ryan Feltner. Note that Manaea is 2-6 with a 6.10 ERA on the road this season. He also is 2-5 with a 7.63 ERA since the all-star break. As for Feltner, he is 2-4 with a 6.27 ERA in home games this season. Also, he is 2-5 the past two months combined and had a 6.00 ERA last month and has a 7.43 ERA so far this month. My play is with action on the pitchers and there should be plenty of runs in this one! 10* OVER 11.5 in Colorado

MLB Friday 8* Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -150 vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:05 ET - Action on pitchers. We cashed in tremendous home dog value with the Phillies yesterday as a top play underdog and now will come right back with them again today as the favorite but will reduce our star rating accordingly from a 10* to an 8* but love this spot too. The home team has now won 8 of last 10 games between these divisional rivals. Philadelphia is riding the momentum of a solid 1-0 shutout win last night after Wednesday's dramatic 4-3 comeback win in extra innings and the Phillies are going to be tough to beat here. Keep in mind this series is the Phillies final home series of the season! They have this one circled as being of key importance in their quest for securing a wild card spot because it is a long road trip after this to close out the season. That said, I like this play regardless of pitchers here but will mention that Aaron Nola known for being so strong at home through the years. Also, he has revenge here after losing at Atlanta last week. Note that Jake Odorizzi has been roughed up frequently overall in recent weeks and the Phillies are sure to get to him better here at home then they did at Atlanta last week. I look for the home team to improve to 9-2 last 11 between these rivals. The Braves are actually just 1-5 last 6 road games and were held to an average of just 1 run per game in 4 of the 5 losses! More of the same expected here. 8* PHILADELPHIA -150

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +135 vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:15 ET - Action on pitchers. Tremendous home dog value here. The home team has won 7 of last 9 games between these divisional rivals. Line value here because the market perceives a huge pitching edge here because of Fried on the mound for Braves and Suarez getting the call for the Phillies. Note that Fried actually has allowed multiple homers in each of his last two starts and one of those was against the Phillies and that was in Atlanta. The last time he faced them in Philly he gave up 9 hits in 6 innings. Philadelphia is riding the momentum of last night's dramatic 4-3 comeback win in extra innings and is going to be tough to beat here. Keep in mind this series is the Phillies final home series of the season! They have this one circled as being of key importance in their quest for securing a wild card spot because it is a long road trip after this to close out the season. That said, I like this play regardless of pitchers and I like the home dog value here as I look for the home team to improve to 8-2 last 10 between these rivals. As for Suarez, he just faced the Braves in Atlanta and was very strong against them. He has allowed just 1 earned run in last 11 innings versus the Braves. More of the same expected here. 10* PHILADELPHIA +135

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins @ 2:10 ET - Action on pitchers. These teams combined to go 5 for 22 with runners in scoring position yesterday and that is why our over 8 ended up 1 run shy at 7 runs. The point is that the opportunities were there but the teams just did cash them in. I like coming back with overs in the same match-up the day after a game like that. We get line value here because it will be a cool afternoon with north winds expected in KC. But still the weather is not brutal and I like the fact we get an over 8 here. I am grabbing the over regardless of who ends up starting, my bet is action, but will mention the starting pitchers that are expected here. Josh Winder has struggled and/or been hit hard in all but 1 of his last 7 appearances. Jonathan Heasley is 2-6 with a 6.43 ERA at home and a 1-6 with a 6.75 ERA in day games this season. Yes this is an afternoon game at Kaufmann Stadium so both those factors are in play here. Here we get payback after yesterday's tough result. 10* OVER 8 in Kansas City

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 -140 vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 10:10 ET - Action on pitchers. The Dodgers entered yesterday with 89 wins by 2 or more runs this season. That was out of 146 games on the season. Many teams will not even win 89 games out of 162 this season and we are talking about 89 wins by a multiple run margin! Simply put, LA has been absolutely dominant this season yet yesterday they played a double header and did not win either game by a multi-run margin. After winning game one by a single run, Los Angeles lost game two outright. That said, regardless of pitchers here, the odds favor a big Dodgers bounce back here and I like this run line play as a great bounce back spot for LA. But now I will touch on the pitchers and will mention that Bumgarner has struggled badly for many weeks now and almost always allows 4 or more earned runs in recent starts. That spells trouble against May and the Dodgers. May has been mostly solid in his outings since coming back from injury and the Dbacks hitters have very little familiarity with him so that is another edge for him here. Look for the home team to roll big in this one! 10* Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line -1.5 -140

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins @ 8:10 ET - Action on pitchers. Love the fact this total dropped to 8 runs even though both teams reached double digits in hits yesterday. Look for both lineups to stay hot here in another meaningless late season season. Indeed I love overs in games like this in the final couple weeks of season because the batters are so relaxed at the plate. It does matter too that both teams are out of contention not just one because if one team is in contention the other will try to play the role of spoiler too and then there is some extra pressure on each team really. In games like this one there is, as noted above, no pressure and the team should swing the bats well again. I really don't care who the pitchers are but will mention that Ober has not pitched a whole lot this season but when he did he faced the Royals a couple times and they got to him in the 2nd outing. Same thing last season too and so Kansas City has a lot of experience against him and it will continue to pay off. The KC starter here is expected to be Lynch and he has struggled badly over his last 5 starts and is showing no signs of turning things around. Look for the Minnesota sticks to take advantage. 10* OVER 8 in Kansas City

MLB Wednesday 8* OVER 8.5 in Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels @ 8:05 ET - Action on pitchers. Late season game between two teams that had disappointing seasons. I like to look for plenty of scoring in games like this. Will be another hot one in Texas today so great weather for the hitters. Angels lineup has been much more dangerous recently than they were during the time Trout was out. LA pounded out a bunch of hits in the 5-2 win yesterday. Rangers should respond off the home loss and I like this over no matter the starting pitchers. But I will mention that Davidson has a 2-6 record with a 6.96 ERA this season and that Dunning has struggled recently, even at home, as his numbers over his last 5 starts leave a lot to be desired. 8* OVER 8.5 in Texas

MLB Wednesday 8* OVER 9.5 in Cincinnati Reds vs Boston Red Sox @ 6:40 ET - Action on pitchers. Late season game between two teams that had disappointing seasons. I like to look for plenty of scoring in games like this. Another warm evening in Cincinnati and this is a hitter-friendly ballpark. Like the over no matter the pitchers but will mention Seabold has an 11.91 ERA and Anderson has a 6.43 ERA on the season. 8* OVER 9.5 in Cincinnati

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in San Diego Padres vs St Louis Cardinals @ 9:40 ET - Action on pitchers. The Cardinals were 36-13 last 49 games before a shutout loss Sunday. St Louis has been hot for a very long time and scoring an average of 5.3 runs per game last 50 games. Just feel we have good value with the low total here. Yes it is a night game in San Diego but note that the Padres have won 13 of 21 games and have averaged scoring 6 runs per game in the 13 victories and have allowed a ridiculous average of 9 runs per game in those 8 defeats. Could this be another high-scoring game? Regardless of starting pitchers (my play is action as always) I do feel we are looking at big runs here. Clevinger the expected starter for SDG and has been getting crushed with a 10.13 ERA this month plus in his last 5 starts he has allowed at least one homer in each and is giving up average of nearly 2 homers per start during this stretch! As for the Cards Wainwright, the long-term story on him has been that of success at home but a general tendency to struggle at times on the road. Wainwright has a 2.61 ERA in STL this season but a 4.31 ERA on the road. More of the same here as Padres high-scoring trending in ballgames continues here. 10* OVER 7.5 in San Diego

MLB Tuesday 10* OVER 8.5 in Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals @ 7:20 ET - Action on pitchers. You can tell by the line on this one that there decent odds that Braves win this game by at least a 3 run margin. That means if Nationals get to at least 3 runs you are likely looking at a 6-3 game here and a winning ticket. Note that Washington had scored at least 3 runs in 18 of last 21 games before being held under that in each of the defeats in their current 2-game losing streak. Overall, the Nats averaged 4.6 runs per game in those 21 games. This team can hit a little and has the type of decent sticks too that can give Morton some trouble. Charlie Morton is the expected starter for the Braves and he has actually allowed 4 earned runs in each of his last two starts and 3 of his last 4 overall! The Washington starter here is expected to be Patrick Corbin and he is 6-18 with a 6.11 ERA this season. He occasionally comes  up with a strong start at home but rarely ever on the road! In fact, Corbin is 2-11 with a 7.83 ERA on the road and opponents are hitting .363 against him in his outings away from home. No matter the pitchers, note that the Braves are 13-4 last 17 games and have scored an average of 6 runs per game in their last 9 wins. Look for the home team to roll in this one on a hot night in Georgia and the weather also helps the bats in this one as both teams crush the ball and it carries well. 10* OVER 8.5 in Atlanta

MLB Monday 10* OVER 7.5 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 10:10 ET - Action on pitchers. Part of the reason for action on pitchers here is Arizona has some uncertainty about who they will start here. But what we do know is that it won't be Zac Gallen or Ryne Nelson because those guys just pitched. That said, the Diamondbacks other starting options are not impressive other than Merrill Kelly but if he pitches here, note that he is having a phenomenal season EXCEPT for when facing the Dodgers. They have had his number this season. So the point is no matter who pitches here for either team I like the over. I know that Clayton Kershaw is the expected starter for the Dodgers and he just had success against the Diamondbacks last week when he faced them. However, he did not record a lot of strikeouts in that one and they seemed to get a little better wood on him as the game went on. I am expecting success from both clubs at the plate tonight as the Diamonbacks are back on the road where they have gone 8-5 last 13 and scored an average of nearly 6 runs per game during that stretch. As for Dodgers they have won 11 of 14 games and scored an average of 6.5 runs per game during yet another hot streak for this red hot LA team. 10* OVER 7.5 in Los Angeles Dodgers

MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 11.5 in Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants @ 8:40 ET - Action on pitchers. Very warm weather in Denver by September standards. The ball is going to be carrying well here no matter who is on the mound and should be plenty of relaxed hitters at the plate. Rockies love hitting at home and the playoff pressure is off for the Giants as they have faded out of the playoff picture. That means hitters should have huge games in this one. So I will quickly touch on the pitchers but, again, my play is action on pitcher. Jakob Junis is 0-5 with a 5.29 ERA since the All Star break. Chad Kuhl is 0-4 with an 8.90 ERA since the All Star break! Those are the expected starters and both are having a rough time in recent months. As for Rockies games and how they have been trending at home, note that their last 17 games at Coors Field have averaged 13.4 runs per game! Yes the Giants have struggled recently at the plate but their 6 games at Coors Field this season have seen the teams combined to average 12 runs per game and they even had some big games at home against Rockies too. San Francisco will get their bats going here but they will need all the runs they can get because hosts should have huge game too given all of the above. 10* OVER 11.5 in Colorado

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals @ 1:35 ET - This is the biggest total on the board Sunday in MLB with a 9.5 across the board. I am not questioning the big number in the least. This is a superb value spot because double digits fully expected here. The Royals just exploded for 9 runs on 15 hits yesterday. Also, the Red Sox are sure to respond after a rare shutout loss at Fenway Park. With Kris Bubic on the mound I fully expect the big response here. The KC lefty having a very rough season and it is not getting any better. Since the start of August he is 0-6 and opponents are hitting about .350 against him. As for Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta, he struggled against the Royals at Kaufmann Stadium earlier this season and now has to face them at Fenway Park where he has a 4.78 ERA and opponents are hitting .274 against him. Last season he had a 5.40 ERA at home too so this is no fluke and he has allowed 30 homers in last 30 starts here! No matter the starting pitchers here (as usual my play is action), I like the over here. Boston had won 8 of 14 games prior to yesterday's shutout and they scored an average of 7 runs in those victories. In their last 10 losses they have allowed an average of 6.3 runs. The Royals had been slumping lately but yesterday's game will get them rolling again and their 6 games against the Red Sox this season have averaged 10 runs per game. This one gets to double digits too! 10* OVER 9.5 in Boston 

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -105 @ Atlanta Braves @ 7:20 ET - When I first saw this match-up and went to look at the lines I was surprised what I found. I say that because I expected to be looking at an underdog price with the Phillies here. However, the line is instead in the pick'em range. But that does not keep me away. No, not at all. In fact, it actually has the opposite effect. It pulls me in. The reason is because the odds makers are smart and they are seeing this one in a similar fashion to how I see it. Even though Philly is looking up in the standings at Atlanta and even though the Braves are at home here, this is a great bounce back spot for the road team. I am going with action on pitchers, as per usual, but will mention that the expected pitchers are Aaron Nola versus Jake Odorizzi. Note that Nola has a fantastic 2.85 ERA on the road this season. As for Odorizzi, he got hit at a nearly .300 clip last month and began this month with a very rough start. The Phillies are 10-6 last 16 times they are off a loss in which they allowed 3 or more runs. Atlanta had lost 4 of last 5 before yesterday's win. 10* PHILADLEPHIA -105

Friday MLB 10* OVER 8 or 8.5 in St Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds @ 8:15 ET - Action on pitchers. We don't even know for sure who the Reds pitcher is going to be and could end up being a bullpen game for Cincinnati. Even with St Louis, even though scheduled starter is Jack Flaherty, that means it might even be a heavy bullpen game for them too. Flaherty has averaged only 3 and 2/3 innings his five starts this season. He has struggled by the way and often had command issues. So this one shapes up to have plenty of runs as Cincinnati should be able to get their sticks going in this one. Yesterday's game was a 3-2 Reds win but victories have been few and far between for Cincy and Cardinals likely to bounce back with a win here. What is the significance of that as it relates to this total? Well, St Louis is 33-13 last 46 games and has scored an average of 7 runs per game their last 25 victories! In other words look for the Cards to score plenty here but I also expect the Reds to have success at the plate too given the overall uncertain pitching situation here with Flaherty struggling and the bullpen likely relied on for too much here. Reds have allowed an average of 6 runs per game in a 6-game losing streak that preceded yesterday's win. This total in the 8 or 8.5 range simply seems too low given all of the above and also very hitter-friendly weather expected at Busch Stadium for this one. 10* OVER 8 or 8.5 in St Louis

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres @ 9:40 ET - Action on pitchers. The Padres expected to start Sean Manea and the Diamondbacks expected to start Drey Jameson. Note that Manea is 2-4 with an 8.15 ERA since the All Star break. The San Diego lefty is also 2-5 with a 6.27 ERA on the road this season. As for Arizona's Jameson, he is 5-12 with a 6.95 ERA this season and that is not even at the MLB level. In fact, this is his MLB debut and those stats are at the AAA level. Look for to get pummeled here. Regardless of the pitchers that start, again my play is action, note that Padres have scored an average of 5.3 runs per game in going 8-4 last 12 road games. The Dbacks are riding the momentum of a walk-off 3-run homer for the win last night over the Dodgers. Yes a couple of tough shutouts were handed to them by LA before that but, prior to the Los Angeles series, some big high-scoring games in Arizona. Heading into that series, the Dbacks were 15-8 last 23 home games and averaged scoring 5.7 runs per game! 9 of last 13 of those games had totaled double digits in runs scored. More of the same expected here on Thursday night. 10* OVER 9 in Arizona

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -130 @ Miami Marlins @ 6:40 ET - Action on pitchers. Sometimes starting pitching gets too much credit from the betting markets and, just like yesterday's match-up between Cabrera and Gibson and Tuesday's with Alcantara and Falter, this is another one of those situations. A very bad Miami team and yet Philly is a very small-priced favorite here because Lopez is on the mound for the Marlins while the Phillies have Syndergaard on the mound. First off, this will be the 2nd time this season that Phillies face Lopez and they catch him now that he is struggling a lot since they saw him early last month. In his last 3 home starts the Miami right-hander has allowed 16 earned runs in 11 and 1/3 innings! As for Syndergaard, he has been solid in his two starts against the Marlins this season. Though he enters this start struggling a bit (again leading to line value here) he should bounce back based on a match-up with the light-hitting Marlins. Remember that in August he went 3-1 and had a great 3-start stretch in there! The Phillies have won 5 straight and 30 of 45 and have a solid lineup. The Marlins entered this series off a RARE and I mean RARE explosion at that plate in second game of double header Monday as they broke out for 10 runs. Prior to this win however Miami had lost 31 of 41 games. These two teams have been going opposite directions since late July and I am happy to lay the very affordable small road favorite price here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -130

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 or 8 in Texas Rangers vs Oakland Athletics @ 8:05 ET - Action on pitchers. This is another case where we are getting value on the line because of market perception being much different from reality of the situation upon closer inspection. In this one, the A's are known as a light hitting team and Dunning has low ERA at home on the season and Sears has low ERA overall on the season for Oakland. That said, this looks like a dead under, right? I don't think so. When I looked into this match-up after seeing the line move from 8.5 down to as low as 7.5, I really liked what I saw here. First off, Sears has been struggling more of late including getting rocked by White Sox in his most recent start. The Athletics lefty has allowed 28 hits in 19 innings spanning his last 4 starts. As for Texas right-hander Dunning, he has allowed 29 hits in just under 20 innings of work spanning his last 4 starts! This included 2 home starts too and overall it was 15 runs (14 earned) in this span of 19 and 2/3 innings. The point is that Dunning has not been dominant of late and neither has Sears yet this game being priced like we are going to see a pitchers duel. I just don't see it even though these are not good hitting teams. The fact is that Oakland has seen 7 straight games and 10 of last 13 total at least 8 runs! In fact, those 13 games have averaged 11.4 runs per game! The Rangers last 20 games have averaged totaling 10.7 runs per game. Also, 10 of last 14 games between these teams have totaled at least 9 runs. I am confident this one will too after each team hit well again in last night's meeting. 10* OVER 7.5 or 8 in Texas

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -125 @ Miami Marlins @ 6:40 ET - Action on pitchers. Sometimes starting pitching gets too much credit from the betting markets and, just like yesterday's match-up between Alcantara and Falter, this is another one of those situations. A very bad Miami team and yet Philly is a very small-priced favorite here because Cabrera is on the mound for the Marlins while the Phillies have Gibson on the mound. First off, this will be the 2nd time this season that Phillies face Cabrera and they catch him now that he is struggling a little bit since they saw him early last month. In his last two home starts the Miami right-hander has allowed 9 earned runs in 11 and 1/3 innings! As for Gibson, he struggled against the Marlins in his most recent start and September has been a rough two starts for him. I see payback coming for him here against the light-hitting Marlins. Remember that in August he went 3-1 with a 2.30 ERA! The Phillies have won 4 straight and 29 of 44 and have a solid lineup. The Marlins entered this series off a RARE and I mean RARE explosion at that plate in second game of double header Monday as they broke out for 10 runs. Prior to this win however Miami had lost 31 of 41 games. These two teams have been going opposite directions since late July and I am happy to lay the very affordable small road favorite price here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -125

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves @ 3:45 ET - Action on this play. Regardless of the starting pitchers I am going over here but it is because of the expected starting pitching match-up here that we are getting phenomenal line value. To the naked eye, Charlie Morton facing Carlos Rodon looks like a pitchers duel. But look closer and you see something much different. Morton actually has struggled in all 4 of his road starts since the All Star break. He has compiled a 6.85 ERA on the road in the 2nd half of the season! As for Rodon, yes he has great numbers this season but Braves have a great record against left-handed starters this season. Part of the reason is they hit lefties very well with a .269 batting average and .457 slugging percentage. Out of 30 MLB teams, those numbers are good for 2nd in the majors and 3rd in the majors, respectively. I know Rodon can be tough but the Braves are 24-8 last 32 games and have averaged scoring 6 runs per game during this stretch. Giants are not known for high-scoring ways but still had scored an average of 6.5 runs per game in winning 4 straight home games before yesterday's low-scoring loss. Look for runs here from both clubs in this series finale as it surprises under players just looking at the names of starting pitchers. Action on this play as per usual. 10* OVER 7.5 in San Francisco

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 8 or 8.5 in Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:40 ET - Action on pitchers. But will start the analysis there as expected starters are Kris Bubic and Joe Ryan. Note that Bubic is having a very rough season and also got rocked at Minnesota in his most recent start versus Twins. Ryan has much better numbers than Bubic on the season but has allowed 9 earned runs in last 9 innings spanning his last two starts. Also, KC seeing him for 4th time this season and they are hitting him a little harder each and every time. Royals have scored an average of 5 runs per game last 13 games overall and 5 runs per game last 6 road games. Twins, before a 4-1 loss to the Guardians Sunday, had been scoring well in home games and were averaging 6 runs per game in last 8 home games. Lot of value here with a rather low total for this one and I am taking this match-up as my top total for the day and expecting double digits in runs scored. 10* OVER 8 or 8.5 in Minnesota

MLB Tuesday 8* New York Mets -1.5 -160 vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:10 ET - Action on pitchers. This line really took off on us as I have been looking at this game since last night but know that even the run line is a bit pricey here. That is why I am reducing my rating to an 8* which is the equivalent of laying 10* on a -130 so is certainly not a bad value here with the Mets in a bounce back spot here. I like New York no matter who ends up being the starting pitchers but will mention it is expected to be Sampson versus deGrom and this is a complete mismatch in favor of New York. In terms of the situation, Chicago just blasted the Mets 5-2 yesterday but this has been the exception rather than the norm in terms of yesterday's results. Cubs had lost 15 of 21 games heading into this series. They only scored well in one of those 15 losses and in the other 14 they averaged just 1.9 runs scored! As for the Mets, they had won 31 of 46 prior to that loss. They had scored an average of 8.4 runs in last 5 victories. This one has the makings of a home blowout. 8* NEW YORK METS -1.5 -160

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies +121 @ Miami Marlins @ 6:40 ET - Action on pitchers. Sometimes starting pitching gets too much credit from the betting markets and this is one of those situations. A very bad Miami team is a mid-range priced favorite here because Alcantara is on the mound for the Marlins while the Phillies have Falter on the mound. First off, this will be the 6th time this season that Phillies face Alcantara and they are starting to hit him harder. In his last two starts against them the Miami right-hander has allowed 9 runs (7 earned) on 16 hits. As for Falter, he is 4-1 with a 3.38 ERA since the All Star break. The Phillies have won 3 straight and 28 of 43 and have a solid lineup. The Marlins off a RARE and I mean RARE explosion at that plate in most recent game as they broke out for 10 runs. Prior to this win however Miami had lost 31 of 41 games. These two teams have been going opposite directions since late July and I am happy to grab the underdog price here. 10* PHILADELPHIA +121

MLB Monday 10* OVER 8.5 or 9 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 9:40 ET - Action on pitchers. I like the over regardless of starting pitchers but will quickly mention them here. This one jumped off the page at me because Tyler Anderson is 14-3 with a 2.73 ERA this season and Ryne Nelson pitched 7 scoreless innings in his MLB debut yet the opening total on this was a 9. That tells you a lot right there and the fact is there is more than meets the eye at first glance here. First off, Nelson had a 5.43 ERA in AAA ball this season so lets not get carried away after just 1 start. Don't be surprised if he struggles with this potent Dodgers lineup in his 2nd start. He won't be the first rookie pitcher that happened to and won't be the last. A lot of times these guys come up and have a great first start but then struggle in the 2nd. This is what I expect with Nelson here. As for Anderson, he has been a little more hittable of late and this has been particularly true on the road. Other than a strong start at Miami (and the Marlins are so bad at the plate!) Anderson allowed 10 earned runs on 21 hits in 18 innings spanning his last 3 road starts. Now he is at Arizona and the Diamondbacks are 15-8 in 23 home games since the All-Star break and averaged about 6 runs scored per game during this stretch. Overall, the Dbacks have allowed 7 runs per game in their current 1-4 stretch entering this game. The Dodgers are on a 6-2 run entering this game and have scored an average of 7.6 runs per game last 8 games! 10* OVER 8.5 or 9 in Arizona

MLB Monday 8* OVER 9 or 9.5 in Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 6:40 ET - Action on pitchers. Great hitting park and good weather for the hitters expected. I like the over regardless of starting pitchers but will quickly mention them here. Mike Minor allowed just 1 earned run but 10 hits in less than 6 innings in his most recent start. The Reds southpaw got hammered at Pittsburgh with 5 earned runs allowed in less than 6 innings in his most recent start against them last month. Minor is 0-7 with a 6.11 ERA in his 9 home starts this season. As for the Pirates Bryse Wilson, he has given up 10 earned runs in 10 innings spanning his last 3 appearances and he has particularly struggled in recent road outings. Also, on the season, he is 0-5 with a 6.49 ERA in his 12 night games (10 starts). The hitters are going to thrive tonight regardless of who is on the mound in this one. Cincinnati averaging 5.6 runs per game last 7 games but Pirates had scored 5 or more runs in 3 of 5 games before yesterday's 4-3 loss in which they went 1 for 7 with runners in scoring position. Pittsburgh has seen 4 of last 5 games total double digits in runs before the 1-run loss to Cardinals yesterday. This one resumes that double digit streak too! 8* OVER 9 or 9.5 in Cincinnati

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 10.5 in Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 3:10 ET - Action on pitchers. Just like the weather today, the bats will again heat up in Denver and that is why I like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers. I had my eyes on yesterday's match-up because it involved couple hurlers likely to struggle but I stayed away from the game as I knew the weather was going to be very chilly and ugly and it was. The game ended just 4-1 with temperatures hovering around just 50 degrees. Today the temp at first pitch should be 70 and by games end it is likely to have hit 80 degrees. Unlike yesterday, bright sunshine and the ball will carry like crazy in the thin air here. Certainly I know Zac Gallen has an incredible scoreless innings streak going. I am well aware as it is actually the 8th longest of all-time. I am here to tell you it will end today and I think Dbacks should have pushed him back to Monday at home, even against the Dodgers, instead of having to pitch in the best hitters park in baseball today. I know one of the games in his scoreless streak was actually here BUT he faced the Rockies twice in early July and they got to him for 7 earned runs in 10 innings of work. They will hit him again today as they build off yesterday's win and Cron's huge homer. As for the Dbacks bats, they will have no problems with Ryan Feltner here. He has struggled overall this season as well as against Arizona and they again get to him here. No matter the pitching match-up, the bats come back to life in the warmer weather today and I will take advantage of this lower total at Coors Field. 10* OVER 10.5 in Colorado

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -140 vs Washington Nationals @ 1:05 ET - Action on pitchers. This game might start later than expected due to rain in Philly early in the day today but I do expect them to get this one in. Nationals lost again to Phillies yesterday and are now 11-45 in divisional games this season! Also, 71 of Washington's 91 losses by at least 2 runs this season! Phillies the much better team, at home, and have dominated the Nationals this season. This is why I don't care who the pitchers are but I will mention that Sanchez is 2-5 this season plus he has a combined 5.61 ERA his past two seasons. Also, Nola has absolutely been dominant in 3 of his last 4 home starts and that includes one against the Nationals. Long-term he has a phenomenal W-L record in his home starts. The home team rolls here and wins big no matter who is on the mound in this one. Nats, as noted above, have lost incredible 80% of divisional games this season and nearly 80% of their losses by 2 or more runs this season. Another home blowout here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -140

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds @ 7:15 ET - Action on pitchers. One of the reasons for that is you really can't trust either of these scheduled starters to go very long in this one. Anderson has struggled and hardly pitched. Houser also has disappointed and has hardly pitched in recent weeks. So if those guys go (I really don't care) that should get us rolling here with some early runs. The key factor is the potency with which I expect the teams to hit here. Reds have scored an average of 7 runs in last 10 victories but allowed an average of 6.5 runs last 13 losses. The Brewers are 6-2 last 8 home games and scored an average of 6 runs in the 6 victories. Milwaukee has allowed a ridiculous average of 7 runs in last dozen losses. In other words, no matter the victor here, you can see why I am expecting runs from the Brewers as well as Cincinnati in this one. 10* OVER 8.5 in Milwaukee

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -125 vs Washington Nationals @ 6:05 ET - Action on pitchers. Nationals lost 5 to 3 to Phillies yesterday are now 11-44 in divisional games this season! Also, against lefties, the Nats are 14-36 this season! 70 of Washington's 90 losses by at least 2 runs this season! Phillies the much better team, at home, and have dominated the Nationals this season. This is why I don't care who the pitchers are but I will mention that Fedde is 4-9 with a 6.26 ERA in night games this season. Also, Suarez has an ERA below 2.50 since early July! The home team rolls here and wins big no matter who is on the mound in this one. Nats, as noted above, have lost incredible 80% of divisional games this season and nearly 80% of their losses by 2 or more runs this season. Home blowout here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -125

MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in Oakland A's vs Chicago White Sox @ 9:40 ET - Action on pitchers. The A's got rocked yesterday but have been scoring some runs of late. The lost 14-2 yesterday but had averaged 4.5 runs per game in their 8 games before the ugly loss. That said, this total at 7.5 sure seems a little too low. Oakland has seen 6 of their last 9 games total at least 9 runs. In fact, those games have totaled an average of 11 runs per game! The White Sox enter this one having won 7 of last 9 games and their last 10 games have averaged 9.5 runs totaled per game. Looking for at least 8 runs here regardless of the pitchers but I will touch on them here. Kaprielian has given up a lot of hits as only one start in August was solid and the other 5 combined he was hit at over a .300 clip. As for Giolito, he has been getting hit quite hard and remember in late May his ERA was 2.63 and it now about double that on the season! The point is that he has regressed all season and I look for the A's to respond after taking a thrashing yesterday and they will do some damage at the plate here today. White Sox bats stay hot too. 10* OVER 7.5 in Oakland

MLB Friday 10* OVER 8.5 in Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:05 ET - Action on pitchers. Great value here with both teams coming off low-scoring losses Wednesday. Now this pitching match-up is conducive to an over but I like both lineups to bounce back regardless of the starting pitchers. I will start there though by mentioning that Voth has a 4.70 ERA and .313 BAA in home games and a 6.70 ERA and a .316 BAA in night games this season. Bello is 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA in night games this season. Bello is getting hit at a .321 clip so far this season. As far as the strength of these two lineups, Red Sox were 5-2 last 7 games and scoring an average of 6 runs per game in that 7-game stretch before a tough 1-0 loss. Boston's last 8 games before the loss Wednesday had averaged 11 runs per game. Baltimore had won 5 of 8 before their 4-1 loss Wednesday. In those 8 games they averaged 4.5 runs scored per game. The Orioles will hit here at home but the Red Sox resume their stronger hitting too. The result is that this one should fly over the rather low total. 10* OVER 8.5 in Baltimore

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -125 vs Miami Marlins @ 6:45 ET - The Marlins have lost 9 straight. The Phillies are 46-27 against teams with a losing record this season. Miami is 24-54 against teams with a winning record this season. As a result, I like this play regardless of the starting pitching match-up and will go action on the pitchers. But now I'll mention them here. Alcantara has had a great season and that is what is helping to keep the money line price so low on the Phillies here. The key though is the Marlins right-hander is starting to fade here at the end of the season. It all started with a recent match-up against the Phillies in which he allowed 4 earned runs. In fact, he has now allowed 4 or more earned runs in each of his last 3 starts! The fact the Marlins are such a poor hitting team and Alcantara has been struggling in recent road outings means superb value here with the hosts. Phillies are expected to start Gibson here and he is 7-3 with a 3.71 ERA in his 15 home games this season. He also went 3-1 with a 2.30 ERA in his August starts. This looks like a mismatch even though the price is low so I am definitely going top play here and, again, my play is action here in terms of the pitchers. Lay the small money line price with the home team. 10* PHILADELPHIA -125

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in St Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals @ 1:15 ET - Action on pitchers. Nationals bullpen imploded in last night's 6-5 loss as they gave up 5 runs in bottom of 9th. Now Josiah Gray the expected starter and he has walked 9 while striking out just 5 in his last 10 innings. Gray allowed 6 earned runs in most recent start and that was 2nd time in last 4 road starts that he has been charged with 6 earned runs. Gray also allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings in his most recent start versus Cardinals and that was at home. Now he faces them at St Louis where there are known to hit better than on the road. The Cards expected starter here is Adam Wainwright. He generally pitches better at home than on the road. So I definitely respect this factor but this is also what is keeping this total too low in my opinion. Keep in mind, regardless of starting pitchers here I like this total. The Nationals bullpen showed what they are capable of last night in the ugly blown game. Also, the Washington lineup has produced 5 or more runs in 7 of last 9 games! That is not bad at all and I feel the Nats will find a way again in this one but they will not be able to slow down the Cardinals! The Cards have won 11 of 15 and scored an average of 7 runs per game in those 11 victories. More of the same here. 10* OVER 7.5 in St Louis

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians @ 8:10 ET - The Royals off B2B losses but had scored 5.7 runs per game in the 6-6 stretch prior to this series. Kansas City, before the 4-1 home loss yesterday, had seen 10 of last 13 games total at least 8 runs so I feel very comfortable here with this over regardless of the starting pitchers. The Guardians have trended toward lower scoring games for sure but have scored 4 runs per game last 3 and had allowed 5 runs per game last 4 before the 4-1 win yesterday. I look for runs here on a warm evening at Kaufmann Stadium regardless of the pitchers but will touch on them here. Cody Morris struggled in his first start for Cleveland and now makes his first ever road start at the MLB level. The Royals are expected to have Zack Greinke on the mound and though he normally pitches well at home, he has been getting hit harder of late including at home. He had a .333 BAA in the month of August and I expect the Guardians to get to him here. Greinke has struggled a bit in his last five starts. Regardless of starting pitchers here, look for this to fly over the total. 10* OVER 8 in Kansas City 

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Atlanta Braves -1.5 -145 @ Oakland A's @ 3:37 ET - Action on pitchers. Yesterday the A's scored 9 runs and lost 10-9 to spoil all Braves run line plays. Very rare for Oakland to score so many runs. Don't see that happening again today. Overall, Atlanta just such a much stronger lineup than the Athletics. So no matter who pitches here, the Braves should win big and you consider yesterday an aberration. Will still touch on the expected starters now. Ken Waldichuk struck out 6 in his MLB debut but could not make it out of the 5th inning and was fortunate more damage was not inflicted as he allowed 5 hits and walked 4. That was against the Nationals too! Now he goes from facing one of the league's worst to facing one of the league's best and is just his 2nds MLB appearance! As for Spencer Strider, his stuff has been "off the charts" good! He dominates and piles up the strikeouts and he is now 9-4 this season with opponents hitting just .179 against him. Look for his nasty stuff  to handcuff the Athletics in this one. The Braves have won 6 straight and are 34 games over .500 while Oakland has won just 33% of their home games this season! Road team rolls to a rout, regardless of starting pitchers! Braves have scored an average of 6.2 runs last dozen games. A's, prior to yesterday, had averaged scored 2 runs per game in last 13 losses! 10* ATLANTA -1.5 -145