MLB Archive | |||||||
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
06-20-17 | Angels +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 8-3 | Win | 113 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Tuesday MLB 10* Top Play Los Angeles Angels +1.5 runs +115 @ New York Yankees @ 7:05 ET - The Yankees just got swept in a 4-game set at Oakland and they ended up losing 6 straight games overall to finish their West Coast road trip. Even though they were off yesterday, the Yankees are still likely to struggle Tuesday night as it is usually the first game back that it toughest on a East Coast team after returning from out west. The Angels were also off yesterday and, though they lost their game Sunday, they've only lost back to back games once since June 3rd. In other words, expect a bounce back and a win from the Angels here. However, should they fall short in a tight, low-scoring game, look for the run line to be all the insurance we need there. Even at +1.5 runs the Angels are getting some plus money odds here and I'll gladly take it. Michael Pineda gets the start for the Yankees and he has allowed 5 earned runs on 10 hits in two of his last three starts. That's made for two ugly outings for Pineda recently and I look for another one here as one of those tough starts was against these Angels in Anaheim. Pineda now has a 7.50 ERA in the 3 starts he has made against the Angels in his career. As for Parker Bridwell of the Angels, he has only had limited action at the MLB level but his lone start this season was a quality start and I expect another one here. At AAA in the Pacific Coast League this season he has held hitters to just a .248 batting average. Though Bridwell struggled out of the bullpen recently against the Yankees, look for him to get some payback here as the Yanks come out with a bit of a West Coast "hang-over" as they bring the 6-game losing streak into tonight's action. 10* LOS ANGELES ANGELS Run Line +1.5 runs |
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06-19-17 | Pirates v. Brewers OVER 9 | 8-1 | Push | 0 | 23 h 50 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Monday MLB 8* OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 7:40 ET - I know that Gerrit Cole is off of a strong start but he had given up 23 earned runs on 39 hits in the 19 and 1/3 innings spanning his 4 prior starts! Two of those outings were on the road and Cole has struggled on the road this season. The Pirates are 2-5 in his 7 road starts and Cole has a 5.67 ERA in those outings. Cole will be opposed by the Brewers Matt Garza whom certainly has been a little shaky of late. Garza has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 3 of his last 4 starts. In his last two starts Garza has as many walks as strikeouts. The over is 8-2 this season in Pirates road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The Brewers are 20-8 to the over in divisional games this season. Milwaukee's game yesterday against the Padres stayed under the total but the Brewers were previously on an 8-2 run to the over in their 10 prior games. Also, the last time Cole visited Milwaukee he was rocked for 5 earned runs on 8 hits in just 4 innings of work. Cole and Garza had a surprising pitchers duel when they met in May but neither one is in good current form now and this one is likely to play out in complete opposite fashion to the May match-up. Look for the over to improve to 7-1 this season (and 26-14 the last 3 seasons) in Brewers Monday games as this series starts off with plenty of fireworks. The Pirates, before yesterday's loss had averaged 5 runs per game in their last 8 games. The Brewers, before yesterday's low-scoring win, had averaged 6.4 runs per game in their last 5 games. The hot hitting resumes here. 8* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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06-19-17 | Reds v. Rays -135 | 7-3 | Loss | -135 | 23 h 48 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Monday 8* Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (-) vs Cincinnati Reds @ 7:10 ET - The Reds have lost 9 straight games after getting swept at home by the Dodgers this past weekend. Making matters worse for Cincinnati is they now take to the road where they are an ugly 10-21 this season. The Reds now face a Rays team that is off of a big 9-1 win at Detroit yesterday and now returns home where they have won 7 of their last 9 games. Also, Tampa Bay has Jake Odorizzi on the mound and he has pitched well at Tropicana Field this season. In his home starts, Odorizzi has a 3.11 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP. The Rays right-hander has held hitters to a .239 batting average in his 624 innings at the MLB level. This is in stark contrast to what Scott Feldman has done in recent seasons. I realize the veteran right-hander has some surprisingly respectable numbers this season but he has been hit at a clip of .266, .275, and .282 the past 3 seasons. Though his overall numbers have been slightly better this season, he has gone 2-3 with a 5.58 ERA in road starts and 1-4 with a 5.62 ERA in night games. As you can see, he's likely to struggle here and I feel the current price (as low as -135 as of Sunday evening) is offering tremendous line value on the Rays. The only reason I am not going with a top play rating on this play is because I expect this price will likely rise a lot before game time. Look for the Reds to lose their 10th straight here. Cincinnati is 1-5 this season in road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The Rays are 8-4 this season in games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. 8* TAMPA BAY |
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06-19-17 | Nationals v. Marlins OVER 9.5 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 22 h 22 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Monday MLB 8* OVER the total in Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals @ 7:10 ET - Washington has been an under team against left-handed starters this season but that is a bit of a fluke because they've actually hit .272 against lefties with a .462 slugging percentage against southpaw pitching on the season. Both those stats rank the Nationals among the top teams in the majors! Of course overall this season the Nats slugging percentage is #1 in the majors and I expect them to enjoy success against a southpaw who is likely to struggle Monday. Justin Nicolino gets the start for the Marlins and he was 3-6 with a 4.99 ERA last season and has not pitched much at the MLB level this season. He got hit at a .307 clip at the MLB level last season and, now this season in the minors, he has struggled. Nicolino is 1-3 at the AAA level this year and has been hit at a .291 clip there. Though he shut down the Phillies (weak team) in his most recent start, he allowed 5 earned runs in 4 innings in his prior start. The Nationals will be ready to bounce back after a sub-par showing at the plate yesterday. Before being held to 1 run in yesterday's game, the Nats had averaged 7.3 runs per game in their 6 prior games! Miami is off of a 5-4 loss yesterday. The Marlins had gone 6-3 in their 9 prior games however and averaged 7 runs per game during this hot streak. The Marlins should certainly do some damage against a struggling Tanner Roark. The Washington right-hander has allowed 12 runs (9 earned) on 20 hits in the 11 innings spanning his last two starts. Overall, Roark has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 5 of his last 9 starts. The over is 9-4-1 in his starts this season and only 1 of his 6 road starts has resulted in an under. Also, the over is 12-6 in Marlins home games with a line between -125 and +125. Also, the over is 27-13 in Miami night games and 14-7 in Marlins games against teams with a winning record this season. Washington is 24-13 to the over in night games this season. 8* OVER the total in Miami |
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06-18-17 | Red Sox v. Astros OVER 9 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach Sunday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:05 ET - David Price is slated for the start for the Red Sox in tonight's game even though he is dealing with a blister on his throwing hand. Joe Musgrove gets the start for the Astros here even though he struggled through a short outing (couldn't complete 5 innings) versus the Rangers on Monday. Musgrove had just returned from a trip to the disabled list due to shoulder pain. The point is that both of these hurlers have some issues right now and I expect them both to struggle here. After a red hot 6-game tear, the Red Sox lineup has suddenly struggled in their last 3 games. Look for the opportunity for the Boston lineup to "get healthy" versus Musgrove to pay immediate dividends here. Opponents are hitting .290 against Musgrove on the season. As for Boston's Price, the southpaw wasn't exactly spectacular in his most recent start and that was against the lowly Phils. In his last road start he gave up 6 earned runs in 5 innings of work. Considering the blister issue as well as the fact that the Astros have a .463 slugging percentage at home this season (good for 4th in the National League this season), look for Price to again struggle on the road here just like he did in the Bronx earlier this month. The over is 7-2 in Boston's Sunday games this season and the over is 7-2 in Astros games played on Sundays this year. Look for more Sunday fireworks after yesterday's game stalled out and fell short of going over the total even though 6 runs were scored in the first three innings! 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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06-18-17 | Mariners v. Rangers -1.5 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Sunday MLB 10* Top Play Texas Rangers Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Seattle Mariners @ 3:05 ET - This is a bit of a "contrarian" play for me because, as long-time followers know, I like to play underdogs or small faves in MLB. However, even though the Rangers are a big favorite here, line value is available by grabbing them at a great price on the run line in a game they should easily win by 2 or more runs. Simply put, the Rangers are hot and the Mariners are not! With yesterday's 10-4 win, Texas is now 8-2 in their last 10 games and all 8 victories have come by at least 2 runs. Seattle is now 2-6 in their last 8 games and all 6 losses have come by 2 runs or more. The Mariners are sending Christian Bergman to the mound and he is now 1-3 in his 4 road starts this season with a ridiculous 10.61 ERA and 2.14 WHIP! He should prove to be no match for the Rangers Yu Darvish. The fire-balling Texas right-hander has led Texas to an 8-4 mark in his last 12 starts. Only 1 of the 8 wins came by less than 2 runs. Darvish has a stellar 2.93 ERA and 1.09 WHIP on the season. The Mariners are now 13-24 on the road this season after back to back 10-4 losses. The Rangers are 17-3 (85%) the last 3 seasons combined as a home fave in a range of -175 to -250. That's a high percentage chance of victory here and, as noted above, there is a high percentage chance that any Rangers win does come by 2 runs or more. 10* TEXAS Run Line -1.5 runs Sunday afternoon |
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06-18-17 | Padres v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach Sunday MLB 8* OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres @ 2:10 ET - Yesterday's over was certainly a fortunate one for those who had it as the game went to extra-innings tied at 3. However, it doesn't change the fact that the Padres have now gone over the total to the tune of 11-2-1 in the month of June! As for the Brewers, they are now 8-2 to the over in their last 10 games. Although the Padres Luis Perdomo has had some solid quality outings this season, San Diego is 0-4 in his road starts this season. The San Diego right-hander had a very rough outing in his most recent road start and now gives the Brewers a 2nd look at him after facing them in mid-May in San Diego. Jimmy Nelson gets the start for Milwaukee here and he has allowed 7 earned runs in less than 12 innings spanning his last two starts. Also, in his last two starts against the Padres he has allowed 8 earned runs in 10 innings of work. Nelson faced them in San Diiego in mid-May and though Nelson was solid against them then and, though Perdomo was solid against the Brewers then, both these lineups have been heating up since then. The Padres have averaged 5.8 runs per game in their last 8 games. The Brewers have scored 5 runs or more in 9 of their last 12 games. The over is 21-14 this season in Padres games against teams with a winning record. The Brewers are 24-13 to the over in their home games this season. Nelson has averaged 5.7 innings per start his last 11 starts and Perdomo has averaged just 5.5 innings per starts on the season. That means both bullpens could have some extra work here and they both rank in the lower third of the National League for ERA so far this season. 8* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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06-18-17 | Nationals v. Mets OVER 8.5 | 1-5 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 36 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Sunday MLB 8* OVER the total in New York Mets vs Washington Nationals @ 1:10 ET - The Mets continue to be an over machine this season! With yesterday's loss to the Nationals going over the total, New York is now 40-19 to the over on the season. The over is a perfect 3-0 so far in this series and, overall, the Mets are on a 5-0 run to the over and the Nats are on a 6-0 run to the over. Even though Jacob deGrom is off of a fantastic start in his last outing, his two prior starts saw him ripped for a combined 15 earned runs in just 8 innings of work. Walks have been an issue for deGrom as he has walked 21 in his last 4 home starts. Joe Ross gets the start for Washington and he has allowed 5 earned runs or more in 5 of his last 7 starts. Ross has allowed 9 earned runs on 17 hits in the 10 innings spanning his last two starts versus the Mets. Of his 8 starts this season, only 1 has resulted in an under! The over is 24-10 in Mets home games this season. 8* OVER the total in New York Mets |
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06-17-17 | Cubs v. Pirates OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach Saturday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs @ 8:15 ET - Jake Arrieta of the Cubs is coming off of a tough start so many will be looking for the "bounce back" here. After all, Arrieta is still a big "name" that guys look to for strong starts. The problem with that theory is he is just not producing this season and this is particularly true on the road. Arrieta gave up 4 runs at home in his most recent start and that was at home. On the road, Arrieta is coming off of a strong start but it was against the light-hitting Padres. Was San Diego's lineup a factor? You bet! In Arrieta's 5 prior road starts he gave up 4 earned runs or more in all 5 starts! Look for another tough outing here for him as Pitsburgh has scored 5 runs or more in 8 of their last 11 games. The Cubs have also been heating up at the plate again after a rare dry spell. Chicago has won 3 of its past 5 games and averaged 7 runs per game during this hot streak. Ivan Nova gets the start for the Pirates. He does have good overall numbers on the season and is off of a strong start. However, prior to shutting down the Marlins in a solid 6-inning outing, Nova had been getting a little "touched up" over his 7 prior starts (including 5 straight where he allowed at least 3 earned runs in every single outing). Nova's ERA in these 7 starts was a respectable 4.40 but he did allow 56 hits in the 45 innings! He now faces a dangerous Cubs lineup and, also helping our cause here is the unsettled Pirates bullpen. Remember those games where they recently blew back to back big leads versus Baltimore in interleague action? Their bullpen had another implosion in last night's 9-5 loss. The Bucs pen can't be trusted, Arrieta can't be trusted for the Cubs, and this one has the makings of another easy over. The over is 4-2 in Nova's last 6 starts and 9-3 in Arrieta's last 12 starts. Cubs divisional games are 20-9 to the over this season. The Pirates are 42-28 to the over in home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs the past 3 seasons combined. Another wild one expected here! 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh Saturday evening |
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06-17-17 | Dodgers v. Reds OVER 10.5 | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach Saturday MLB 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 4:10 ET - I know last night's game was a pitchers duel but today's match-up has the right ingredients to be anything but that! The Reds Asher Wojciechowski just faced the Dodgers in LA and he gave up 4 earned runs in 5 innings while striking out only 1. He has a 6.00 ERA in his last 3 starts. As for the Dodgers Hyun-Jin Ryu, the southpaw just faced the Reds in Los Angeles and he gave up 3 homers to Cincinnati at pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium! Overall Ryu has struggled as he has been hit hard in 4 of his last 5 starts. The Dodgers are 0-5 in his road starts this season and he has a 1.54 WHIP away from home. The Reds are averaging 5.6 runs per game at home this season and will bounce back at the plate today as they face a struggling hurler. The Dodgers only scored 3 runs yesterday but they've now won 7 of their last 8 games and have averaged scoring 6 runs per game in their last 7 games! The over is 15-9 in their games against teams with a losing record and the over is 7-3 in Dodgers Saturday games. As for the Reds, the over is 7-2 this season (and 30-16 the last 3 seasons) when they are a home dog in a price range of +125 to +175. Cincinnati is also 15-7 to the over in their games against teams with a winning record. Like the Dodgers, the Reds have a pattern of high-scoring games on Saturdays with a 7-2 over record so far this season. Look for more of the same here as there is reason to believe both hurlers struggle badly in this one. 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati Saturday afternoon |
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06-17-17 | Cardinals v. Orioles +100 | Top | 7-15 | Win | 100 | 8 h 0 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Saturday MLB 10* Top Play Baltimore Orioles Money Line (+) vs St Louis Cardinals @ 4:05 ET - The Cardinals rolled the Orioles 11-2 yesterday and appear to be the popular choice again today. However, long-time followers know I love to fade the masses and I believe the home/road dichotomy of these starting pitchers will prove to be the key. The Orioles Wade Miley has a 2.15 ERA in his 6 home starts this season. In fact, his home ERA was 1.01 on the season before he struggled versus Pittsburgh in his most recent start in Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The southpaw will take advantage of facing a Cardinals team that had lost 10 of 14 prior to yesterday's rare offensive explosion on the road. The Cards are still just 3-6 in interleague games this season while Baltimore is still 6-4 this season and 32-18 the past 3 seasons combined when facing an NL club. Also, the Orioles are still 21-11 at home this season even after yesterday's ugly loss. They'll be facing Adam Wainwright and the Cardinals right-hander has a 7.28 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in his road starts this season! He's made 6 starts away from home this season and Wainwright has been roughed up in 4 of them. That said, odds favor another tough road outing for the St Louis right-hander while I look for the O's southpaw to bounce back at home where he has been much more effective on the mound this season and where, in his career since coming to the Orioles, he has held hitters to about a .250 batting average! 10* BALTIMORE ORIOLES money line Saturday afternoon |
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06-17-17 | White Sox v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | 5-2 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 9 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Saturday MLB 8* OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox @ 1:05 ET - The real Mike Pelfrey is starting to show up but we are still getting line value here because of his long-term numbers this season and the fact that he has been fortunate and has escaped big damage in his last two starts. But take a look at those two outings as he has given up 12 hits and 8 walks in a total of just 9 innings of work. The fact that Pelfrey has allowed 2.2 baserunners per inning but only allowed 2 earned runs in each start is a miracle. I'll take advantage of the line value still being offered with him as his recent poor performances are flying a bit under the radar because of the low ERA. He'll be opposed by Marcus Stroman and, even though the Blue Jays right-hander has been throwing well, he has a poor history against the White Sox and Chicago is red hot at the plate right now. Toronto is 0-4 in Stroman's 4 career starts against the ChiSox and he has compiled an ugly 7.70 ERA in those four outings. With yesterday's 11-4 win, the White Sox are now 4-1 in their last 5 games and they've averaged 7.6 runs during this hot streak. The over is 19-9 when the White Sox are on the road with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Also, this season the ChiSox are 18-10 to the over in their games against teams with a losing record. 8* OVER the total in Toronto very early Saturday afternoon |
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06-16-17 | Giants v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 8-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
NL West Total of the Year - Rickenbach Friday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants @ 8:40 ET - Yes this is an important top pick for me (as you can see from the play title I am using) and yes I am aware that Eduardo Nunez and Buster Posey left last night's game in the latter innings with injuries. However, Nunez only had 1 of the Giants 17 hits yesterday! As for Posey, certainly he is a fantastic hitter but consider his importance behind the plate as well. If Posey isn't behind the dish for San Francisco it could absolutely be impacting to Giants pitcher Jeff Samardzija. Regardless of who ends up behind the plate tonight, Samardzija is likely to struggle. The right-hander got rocked for 7 runs in 5 and 1/3 innings in his last start at Colorado and that was in late April. The weather will be very warm tonight and the hitters for both clubs should again have a huge night at the plate after the 19 run outburst last night. As for the Rockies Antonio Senzatela, he fared well when he faced the Giants earlier this season but he certainly is in poor current form now compared to how he was throwing in the early stages of this season. Senzatela has been hit quite hard in 5 of his last 6 outings. The one exception was an 8-inning gem against St Louis. In the other 5 outings Senzatela allowed 19 earned runs on 30 hits in 25 and 1/3 innings of work. That works out to a 6.75 ERA in those 5 starts and, right now, the Giants have been heating up at the plate. San Francisco has recorded double digits in hits in 4 of their last 7 games. The Giants have averaged 12.3 hits per game in their last 4 games! SF is on a 4-0 run to the over. The over is 8-2 in Senzatela's last 10 starts. Also, the over is 21-11 in San Francisco's road games this season! 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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06-16-17 | Red Sox +111 v. Astros | Top | 2-1 | Win | 111 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Friday 10* Top Play Boston Red Sox Money Line (+) @ Houston Astros @ 8:10 ET - The Red Sox are off of a 1-0 shutout loss yesterday. I know Boston doesn't have good numbers when off of a shutout loss but I certainly like backing them in this spot given the overall situation. The Red Sox had won 3 straight games and 8 of their last 11 before the surprising loss at Philadelphia last night. Also, in those 8 wins the BoSox have averaged 6.3 runs per game and I look for their lineup to get right back on track here against Michael Fiers. The Astros right-hander is off of a RARE strong home start. In his 3 prior home starts Fiers had allowed 11 runs (10 earned) on 23 hits in less than 17 innings of work. The Red Sox will start Drew Pomeranz and though the southpaw is off of a poor start in his most recent outing, that certainly has been the exception rather than the norm. In fact, Pomeranz had allowed 2 earned runs or less in 8 of his 9 prior starts! Granted he has not pitched deep in many games BUT the Red Sox also have one of the best bullpens in baseball. Boston's relievers have combined to go 12-5 with a 2.83 ERA this season. The Red Sox are 18-9 the last 27 times they were off of a loss this season. The Astros are off of a big 13-2 win over Texas Wednesday but they had lost 6 of their prior 8 games! Also, prior to that offensive explosion, Houston had averaged just 3.2 runs per game in their 5 prior games. In home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs the Astros have gone 14-16 and -$9,000 the past 3 seasons combined! 10* BOSTON |
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06-16-17 | White Sox +147 v. Blue Jays | 11-4 | Win | 147 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Friday MLB 8* Chicago White Sox Money Line (+) @ Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:05 ET - The Blue Jays are only hitting .229 this season versus left-handed pitching. As a result, it should come as no surprise that the Jays are only 5-10 this season in games against southpaw starters. Jose Quintana gets the start for the White Sox here and his poor overall numbers hide the fact that he has certainly been serviceable in his last two starts (both on the road) and, in fact, two of his best starts this season came on the road. In starts at Seattle and Kansas City, Quintana allowed just 1 earned on only 5 hits while striking out 14 in 16 innings of stellar work. Could he enjoy the same success here at Toronto? Yes! Not only are the Blue Jays struggling against lefties this season, the Jays last 3 times facing Quintana have seen the southpaw give up just 2 earned runs on 11 hits while striking out 25 in 21 sparking innings of work. His last two starts at Toronto have resulted in 13 scoreless innings! He'll be on the mound with plenty of confidence in this one and the Blue Jays were off yesterday and are just 3-7 this season when playing after a day off. The Jays won their prior game but are on a 1-5 run when off of a win in their prior game. The White Sox won 5-2 yesterday and continued pounding out the hits. The ChiSox have averaged 5.3 runs and 11 hits per game in their last 8 games. Though Joe Biagini has some solid numbers for the Blue Jays this season, Toronto has lost each of his last 3 starts and he's running into a red hot White Sox lineup here. 8* CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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06-15-17 | Giants v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 9-10 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach Thursday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants @ 8:40 ET - The Giants lost 7-2 yesterday but they did have 10 hits. It was the third time in six games that San Francisco has reached double digits in hits. However, those games were at home and the Giants have actually been swinging the bats better on the road and now head to hitter-friendly Coors Field for this series. San Francisco has averaged 6 runs per game and 10.4 hits per game in their last 7 road games. I am well aware of the fact that Colorado's Jefff Hoffman has put up some phenomenal numbers in his last 3 starts but all those were on the road. Though he does have great strikeout numbers, Hoffman's lone home start did see him allow 3 earned runs on 6 hits and 2 walks in just 5 and 1/3 innings of work. The Rockies are off of a 5-1 win yesterday and are now 9-4 in the month of June. Colorado has averaged 6 runs per game this month and this will be just their 3rd home game so far this month. It is getting to the time of year now when the ball carries exceptionally well at Coors Field and the Rockies scored a combined 19 runs in their other 2 home games this month. They should have no problem with the offerings of Matt Moore. The Giants left-hander has allowed 11 earned runs in less than 10 innings of work spanning his last two starts against the Rockies and one of those outings was in pitcher-friendly San Francisco. Moore is 0-4 on the road this season with a 7.94 ERA and 1.91 WHIP in his 7 starts away from home. The over is 6-0, one push, in his road starts this season. The over is 5-2 this season in Giants road games where they are a dog in a range of +125 to +175. Look for another one here as Moore's over record goes to 7-0 in road games this season! 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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06-15-17 | Rays +125 v. Tigers | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Thursday MLB 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) @ Detroit Tigers @ 7:10 ET - The Rays are off of a 7-6 loss last night but had previously won 6 of their last 7 games. Also, Tampa Bay has averaged scoring nearly 7 runs per game in their last 7 games. As for the Tigers, they are off of a 2-1 loss last night and they have now lost 6 of their last 8 games. Yesterday's low-scoring defeat marked the 6th time in their last 8 games that Detroit has been held to 4 runs or less. The Rays have been the hotter team and have been the better hitting team recently as you can see. With that said, there is great line value here with the underdog Tampa Bay. Justin Verlander gets the start for Detroit and, of course, he has a great long-term reputation. The problem for Verlander right now is that he is simply not in good current form. The veteran right-hander has allowed 5 earned runs on 11 hits and 7 walks in the 7 innings spanning his last two starts. Look for another short outing from Verlander here as the Rays sticks stay hot. Tampa will have Alex Cobb on the mound for this one. He had one bad start in early June at Seattle that totally has skewed his numbers. Other than that one bad outing, in the other 7 starts he has made dating back to early May, Cobb has allowed a combined 14 earned runs on 35 hits in 45 and 2/3 innings of work. Those rock solid numbers have produced a 2.76 ERA and that makes Cobb and the Rays a true "live dog" in this spot! The Rays are 7-3 this season in games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Also, Tampa Bay is 27-18 this season in games against right-handed starters. Detroit is 3-6 this season in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs and the Tigers are an ugly 2-6 in Thursday games this season. 10* TAMPA BAY |
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06-15-17 | Mariners v. Twins OVER 9.5 | 2-6 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach Thursday MLB 8* OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners @ 1:10 ET - Last night's game just missed going over the total but these lineups have been red hot at the plate even though yesterday's 6-4 Mariners win fell just short of cashing another over. The Mariners have averaged 9 runs per game in the first 3 contests of this 4-game set. The Twins have averaged just under 9 runs per game in their last 4 games as a 13-8 loss preceded this series with Seattle. The fact is that Minnesota has been an "over machine" in spots like this as the over is 15-6 this season in Twins home games where their money line ranges from -125 to +125. Also, the over is 8-4 in Minny's home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this season. I know the Twins Jose Berrios made a lot of headlines with his fantastic starts when he first moved into the rotation but certainly he has come back down to earth. Berrios has a 4.41 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in his last 3 starts. As for the Mariners Ariel Miranda, he has a 5.69 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in road starts this season. The very first O/U that was posted on this game yesterday when lines first came out was 10.5 and it quickly dropped and is a solid 9.5 across the board as of early gameday morning. The move has a lot to do with the long-term numbers of Berrios and Miranda this season and the fact that both of them have been "under" pitchers this season. However, as noted above, Berrios has come back to reality now after pitching exceptionally well early this season and Miranda is not the same pitcher on the road as he is in Seattle. With how hot the bats have been in this series and with the wind blowing out to dead center on a warm afternoon in Minneapolis, there is only one way to go in this one. 8* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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06-14-17 | Rangers v. Astros OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-13 | Win | 102 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach Wednesday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers @ 8:10 ET - The Astros are starting Francis Martes. He is only 21 years old and this will be his first ever MLB start. In his only other appearance (Friday) he allowed 4 earned runs in 3 and 2/3 innings out of the bullpen. This season has been his first season in the minors above the AA level and it has NOT gone well. Martes has gone winless in 8 starts with a 5.29 ERA and opponents have hit .299 against him! In other words, with a lack of success above the AA level in the minors now Martes makes his first ever MLB start. Now, making the situation even tougher on him is the fact that he faces a red hot Rangers lineup. Texas has won 5 straight games and 6 of their last 7. The Rangers have averaged 5.6 runs per game during this 7-game stretch. As for the Astros, though they've been slumping, they will take advantage of facing the Rangers Andrew Cashner for the 3rd time in the past 6 weeks! In fact, Houston just saw him in Arlington less than 2 weeks ago and they pounded him for 5 earned runs on 11 hits in 6 innings of work. Cashner's strikeout numbers are down this season and the Astros are loaded with sluggers so when they make contact, look out! By the way, the Rangers bullpen (5.57 ERA and 1.68 WHIP on the road) should also help our cause here. On Wednesdays, the over is 6-3 in Astros games and 8-2 in Rangers games this season. Going further back, Texas is 41-19 to the over in Wednesday games the past 3 seasons combined. 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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06-14-17 | Mariners +125 v. Twins | Top | 6-4 | Win | 125 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Wednesday MLB 10* Top Play Seattle Mariners Money Line (+) @ Minnesota Twins @ 8:10 ET - The Mariners got crushed 20-7 last night. Over the past 3 weeks, Seattle is a perfect 3-0 when off of a loss by a margin of 4 runs or more. Keep in mind, Seattle was on a 11-4 run before last night's loss. Conversely, the Twins have been "scuffling" a bit in recent weeks as they were on a 6-9 run in their last 15 games before getting the win last night. We are getting excellent line value here because Ervin Santana is on the mound for the Twins. Though the Minnesota right-hander has great full-season numbers and is off of a strong start, Santana allowed 7 earned runs in 4 innings in his prior start. Even though that ugly outing was on the road, 2 of his 3 prior home starts have seen him allow 5 and 6 earned runs, respectively. As for the Mariners Sam Gaviglio, he is settling in nicely. He has allowed 1 earned run or less in 4 of his 5 starts this season and he has gone at least 5 innings in all 5 starts. The Twins have never faced him so that is also an edge for Gaviglio. The Mariners are already 7-3 in Wednesday games this season and have won 3 straight starts made by Gaviglio. The Twins are only 1-4 this season as a home fave of -125 to -175 and I expect more struggles here for Minny with this sweet "play against" angle. Overall, the Twins are only 13-19 at home this season and the M's had won 4 straight road games prior to getting crushed yesterday. 10* SEATTLE on the money line Wednesday |
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06-14-17 | Royals v. Giants OVER 7.5 | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach Wednesday MLB 8* OVER the total in San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals @ 3:45 ET - The Royals are heating up. After yesterday's 8-1 win, Kansas City has now won 3 straight games and averaged 9.3 runs per game during this hot streak. Going further back, the Royals have had 7 overs in their last 8 games and KC has averaged 6.4 runs per game during this 8 game stretch. I don't expect the Giants Johnny Cueto to slow them down. He is a former Royals so they know plenty about him and he did allow 9 hits in 7 innings the last time he faced Kansas City. Cueto has allowed 14 hits and 4 walks in the 11 innings spanning his last two starts. That works out to an unsightly 1.64 WHIP for the right-hander in his last two outings. I know that the Royals Jason Hammel has thrown better in his recent outings but those were all at home! Kansas City is 0-4 this season in Hammel's road starts and he has a 6.43 ERA and a 1.86 WHIP in those outings. The Giants will be getting a 2nd look at Hammel this season and this time they get him at AT & T Park rather than Kauffman Stadium. Prior to yesterday's loss, San Francisco had scored 7 runs or more in 5 of their last 10 games. Facing Hammel could very well lead to another huge game at the plate for the Giants here. Only 1 of Cueto's 5 home starts this season has resulted in an under. Look for the over to improve to 5-2 in Royals inter-league action on the season as we take advantage of the low total here. 8* OVER the total in San Francisco Wednesday |
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06-14-17 | A's +152 v. Marlins | 6-11 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Wednesday MLB 8* Oakland A's Money Line (+) @ Miami Marlins @ 12:10 ET - Everyone will be lining up to back Edinson Volquez and the Marlins here considering that the right-hander recently made plenty of headlines in the news with a no-hitter and is on a 3-start stretch that has seen him produce a 0.41 ERA. However, his start prior to this stretch was a "shaky one" against the A's and he has now allowed 12 runs (11 earned) on 14 hits (including 2 homers) with more walks than strikeouts in the 9 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts against Oakland. Prior to yesterday's 8-1 loss, the A's had averaged 6 runs per game in their last 9 games. Also, the Athletics had averaged 14 hits per game in their last 3 games. Don't be surprised when they shock everyone and consider their recent success against Volquez. I know that Daniel Gossett is making his MLB debut today but he did allow just 2 hits in his 6 and 1/3 innings against MLB hitters in spring training this year. Also, he's put up good strikeout numbers in the minors and opponents hit only .221 against him last season and have hit only .231 against him this season. He also does a great job of keeping the ball down in the zone. Though the Marlins have won 3 straight Volquez starts he has lost his last 2 starts against the A's including the one just 3 weeks ago in Oakland which brought Miami's record to 1-8 in Volquez starts this season. Even with yesterday's big win the Marlins are still just 19-37 in inter-league action the last 3 seasons combined. I know the A's have one of the worst road records in the league but this one has "upset" written all over it. 8* OAKLAND A's money line very early Wednesday afternoon. |
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06-13-17 | Cubs v. Mets OVER 8.5 | 14-3 | Win | 105 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Tuesday MLB 8* OVER the total in New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:10 ET - The Mets are on a surprising "under streak" as they have been an "over team" for much of this season. Yesterday's game stayed under the total despite the fact that the Mets scored 6 runs on 11 hits. I expect both teams to produce those types of results in today's rematch. I know Zack Wheeler of the Mets has some good career numbers against the Cubs. However, the Mets have had just 2 unders in his 11 starts this season and Wheeler gave up 10 hits in 6 and 1/3 innings in his most recent home start. The Cubs will have Jon Lester on the mound and the southpaw has been struggling and has an 8.16 ERA in his last 3 starts. Also, on the season, Lester has a 7.10 ERA in his road starts. The last two times he has faced the Mets in New York he has allowed 12 earned runs on 17 hits (including 5 homers) in just 8 innings of work! The over is 4-0 in Lester's road starts this season and 4-1 in Wheeler's home starts this season. Look for the over to improve to 30-10 on the season in Mets night games as the Cubs sticks get back on track (had 7 runs on 12 hits Sunday) and the Mets stay hot at the plate. 8* OVER the total in New York Mets early Tuesday evening. |
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06-13-17 | Dodgers v. Indians +157 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
Rickenbach Tuesday MLB 10* Top Play Cleveland Indians Money Line (+) vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 7:10 ET - This is a typical contrarian play for me and what that means is that we're going against the grain but certainly not without good reason. One of the keys here is Trevor Bauer is off of a poor start but it was to be expected. He was trying to start on 2 days rest after his prior start saw him have to exit during the 2nd inning after a weather delay. As a result, he struggled badly in his most recent start which was at hitter-friendly Colorado on Wednesday. However, in his most recent "normal" start he was at home on May 30th and he allowed just 3 earned runs in 7 innings while striking out 14. Look for Bauer, happy to be home and on normal rest for this one, to again dominate in Cleveland this evening. The Indians are 52-28 the last 3 seasons combined in home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The Dodgers are 18-29 the last 3 seasons combined in road games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. Why the big line on LA here? Of course that's because Los Angeles has Clayton Kershaw on the hill for this one. However, remember his recent start against last year's other World Series participant (the world champion Cubs)? Kershaw allowed 4 earned runs on 11 hits in just 4 and 1/3 innings of work. The Dodgers southpaw gave up 3 homers in that start too. Don't be surprised if this one is another tough outing for the big lefty. The Indians are 6-2 in their last 8 home games and have averaged 6 runs per game during this stretch. The Dodgers are off of a 3-game sweep where they hit well but that was against a bad Reds team. Prior to that Los Angeles had scored 2 runs or less in 7 of their last 8 games. This one truly has all the right ingredients for a big upset. In fact, the Dodgers bullpen has a 3.39 ERA on the road and the Indians bullpen has a 1.59 ERA at home and this is yet another edge for the Tribe in this one. 10* CLEVELAND INDIANS money line early Tuesday evening. |
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06-13-17 | Rays v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Tuesday MLB 8* OVER 8.5 in Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 7:05 ET - I am well aware of the fact that Jacob Faria had a solid start in his MLB debut but that was at home. Now the young right-hander is on the road and let's not forget he had a 6.14 ERA in spring training this year and was 5-10 with a 4.00 ERA in the MINORS last season! Though he has good stuff, Faria is still a developing hurler. As for the Blue Jays, they send a struggling Marco Estrada to the mound for this one. He has given up 11 earned runs on 16 hits in 9 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts. Also, against the Rays, Estrada has given up 14 earned runs in 16 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts. In those 3 outings Estrada has been rocked for 6 homers. Look for more of the same Tuesday night as Tampa Bay's lineup certainly comes into this one hot. The over is a perfect 5-0 in the Rays last 6 games as their hot hitting has helped lead the way to a 5-1 run their last 6 games. Tampa Bay has averaged 6.6 runs and 10.6 hits per game in their last 5 games. The over is also on a 6-1 run in the Rays last 7 road games. TB is 28-16 to the over against right-handed starters this season and, as you can see per the above, should pound Estrada here. Nice situation here with Faria making his first ever MLB road start and Estrada struggling. 8* OVER the total in Toronto early Tuesday evening. |
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06-12-17 | Rangers v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Monday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers @ 8:10 ET - Happy to go contrarian here as the early move pushed this total from a 9 down to an 8.5 and I understand the move based on Yu Darvish being on the mound for the Rangers and Joe Musgrove having thrown 7 scoreless innings in his most recent start. However, here are the keys to value for this total. Darvish is 0-4 with a 5.81 ERA in his last 6 starts versus the Astros. These teams face each other a lot so there is plenty of familiarity for the Houston hitters with Darvish. Also, the Rangers right-hander has particularly struggled versus the Astros of late with 8 earned runs allowed on 14 hits in just 9 innings of work spanning his last two starts against Houston. As for Musgrove, though he's off of a strong start, that outing took place two weeks ago as he's just now coming back from a trip to the disabled list with a shoulder injury. I do not expect him to be 100% here and he has given up 13 runs (12 earned) in only 14 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts versus the Rangers. Those 3 outings included 2 September starts and then another start versus Texas last month so the Rangers have seen plenty of him recently. Again, that familiarity often leads to success for the hitters. The over is a perfect 3-0 in Musgrove's last 3 starts against the Rangers and none of Darvish's last 3 starts have stayed under the total! The Rangers have scored 5 runs or more in 8 of their last 11 games. The Astros have averaged 7 runs per game in going 13-4 in their last 17 games! Plenty of potency expected from both of these lineups today! The over is 9-3-2 in the Astros last 14 games and the over is 13-8 in Texas' games against teams with a winning record this season. 10* OVER the total in Houston Monday evening. |
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06-12-17 | Phillies v. Red Sox OVER 10.5 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Monday MLB 8* OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 7:10 ET - Mild evening, wind blowing out to center field, and two pitchers likely to struggle means we have the perfect situation for an easy over. Of course the one concern is that the Phillies are one of the weaker hitting teams in the league but Philadelphia did get 5 runs on 12 hits yesterday and Boston's Rick Porcello is not in good current form. He allowed 2 homers in each of his last 2 starts and he comes into this match-up having been hit hard start after start. In fact, in Porcello's last 6 starts he has given up 56 hits in 37 and 1/3 innings. As you can see from those numbers he has been consistently hittable in recent weeks. As for Jerad Eickhoff of the Phillies, he is 0-7 on the season and has a 6.92 ERA and 1.92 WHIP in his last 3 starts. The over is 6-2 in his last 8 starts overall and 4-1 in his last 5 road starts! The Red Sox only scored 3 runs yesterday but they had 12 hits and have now scored 19 runs on 36 hits in their last 3 games! They'll stay hot at the plate against Eickhoff whom they crushed for 6 earned runs in just 4 innings in his lone career start at Boston in September of 2015. The over is on a 30-19 run in Boston's games and a 30-13 run in Philadelphia's games. In road games with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs, the over is a perfect 4-0 this season in Phillies games. There is every reason to believe this will be another one here! 8* OVER the total in Boston early Monday evening. |
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06-12-17 | Cubs +118 v. Mets | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
No Doubt Blowout Rout - Rickenbach Monday MLB 10* Top Play Chicago Cubs Money Line (+) @ New York Mets @ 7:10 ET - The Cubs John Lackey has been charged with some significant earned runs in a few of his recent starts but he has allowed only 35 hits in his last 35 and 1/3 innings. The point is that he certainly has not been getting hit as hard as Jacob deGrom has been for the Mets. The New York right-hander has allowed 15 earned runs on 18 hits (and 6 walks) in just 8 innings of work spanning his last two starts. By the way, as you can see with the 18 hits and 6 walks that means he has a 3.00 WHIP in his last two outings. Allowing an average of 3 baserunners per inning gets any pitcher into trouble early and often and I look for more of the same here for deGrom. The Cubs got their sticks going again yesterday with 7 runs on 12 hits in a win over the Rockies. Even though the Cubs bats have certainly not been "on fire" of late that could be a turning point for them and they're certainly catching deGrom at the right time to enjoy success. The Cubs are 6-4 in their last 10 games and they've averaged 4.5 runs per game in those 10 games. As for the Mets, they are 5-6 in their last 11 games and they've been held to 2 runs or less in 4 of the 6 losses. They also only scored 2 runs in yesterday's win. Look for the Mets to drop to 3-7 this season in home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. As for the Cubs, they are on a long-term 83-49 run in all games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. 10* CHICAGO CUBS money line early Monday evening. |
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06-11-17 | Blue Jays +147 v. Mariners | Top | 4-0 | Win | 147 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Toronto Blue Jays Money Line (+) @ Seattle Mariners @ 4:10 ET - The Mariners with James Paxton on the mound will certainly be the popular choice here but I see tremendous underdog line value here with J.A. Happ and the Blue Jays. Toronto got the 4-2 win yesterday and I look for them to carry momentum right into this game. Look for Happ to be at his best today as he'll now be making his 3rd start since coming off of the disabled list. That means he has had a couple outings to work the kinks out and Happ has allowed only 7 hits in 9 and 1/3 innings since coming off of the disabled list. The trouble for the Jays southpaw has been that he has allowed a pair of dingers in each start. However, in his last 3 starts against the Mariners he has a 2.00 ERA and has only allowed 1 homer in 18 innings. The M's Paxton is 5-0 this season while Toronto's Happ is 0-4 this season. Of course this makes Seattle look like a "must play" in this spot but Paxton is coming of his 3rd unimpressive start in his last 5 outings. In these 3 subpar starts, Paxton has combined to allow 10 runs (9 earned) on 19 hits and 9 walks in just 14 and 2/3 innings of work. As you can see, Paxton has allowed nearly 2 baserunners per inning in those starts and his 5.52 ERA in those 3 outings and that ERA could easily be worse. The last time Happ started at Seattle was late last season and the Jays won 10-2 and he struck out 8 in 5 innings. I see tremendous line value here and Paxton has a 6.32 ERA in his career against the Jays. Seattle has just 27 hits in their last 4 games and the Blue Jays are 12-6 in their last 18 games and are building up more and more confidence with each win. Look for them to be aggressive at the plate and enjoy success against Paxton whom did go 1-3 and got hit at a .320 clip last June. He's fortunate to be 5-0 this season. That good fortune turns today as the Jays hand him his first loss of 2017. Seattle is 55-74 against left-handed starters the past 2+ seasons while the Blue Jays are 39-25 in Sunday games the past 2+ seasons. 10* TORONTO |
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06-11-17 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 4:10 ET - The first number that popped up on this total was a 9.5 but it was immediately bet down to an 8.5 before big bets were even able to come in. The point is that knowing where the odds makers heads were when setting a line is always helpful and I understand this will be a contrarian play with the public but this total has a great shot at surprising many. Even though the Brewers Chase Anderson and the Diamondbacks Ricky Ray have thrown extremely well of late, there are a number of key variables favoring the over. 2 of Anderson's last 3 starts have been at home and note that on the road this season he has a 4.36 ERA and the over is 4-2 in those 6 outings. 2 of Ray's last 3 starts have been on the road and note that at home this season he has a 5.67 ERA and the over is 5-1 in those 6 outings. Also, these lineups just faced these starting pitchers two weeks ago. The hurlers held the upper hand in those meetings but don't be surprised if the hitters fare much better in the rematch! The Brewers had averaged 6 runs and 11.5 hits per game in their last 4 games before getting shutdown yesterday. The Diamondbacks had averaged 8.6 runs per game in their last 5 games before yesterday's tight 3-2 win over Milwaukee. On the season Arizona is averaging 6.4 runs per game at home and the Brewers have a .450 slugging percentage versus lefties (ranks among tops in the league) and they have averaged 5.3 runs per game in match-ups with southpaw starters this year! Look for the over to improve to 10-5 this season in Brewers games against left-handers this season! The Diamondbacks had recorded 5 straight overs before yesterday's pitchers duel. Look for the "over trend" to resume here. 10* OVER the total in Arizona |
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06-11-17 | A's v. Rays OVER 8 | 4-5 | Win | 105 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Sunday 8* OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs Oakland A's @ 1:10 ET - Yesterday the A's had 16 hits in each game of the double header. I know the Rays Chris Archer is a great pitcher but Oakland will be stepping to the plate with plenty of confidence early this afternoon after yesterday's big performances. Also, in Archer's only career start against Oakland he walked 4 and gave up 6 hits in just 5 and 1/3 innings of work. The A's will have Jesse Hahn on the mound. I know he's off of a start where he did not allow an earned run but his strikeout numbers have been down and he did allow 7 hits in 6 innings in that start. In fact, Hahn has now given up 37 hits in the 29 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 6 starts. With both games of the double-header yesterday going over the total, the over is now 7-1-1 in Oakland's last 9 games! As for the Rays, the over is now 10-3 in their last 13 games. The over is 19-8 in A's games against teams with a winning record this season and the over is 7-1 in Athletics Sunday games this year. The over is 19-12 in Rays games against teams with a losing record this year and the over is 27-16 in Tampa Bay's games against right-handed starters. Archer has a 4.64 ERA in his last 5 starts and this total is being kept low because of his long-term reputation. The fact is that the A's are "feeling it" right now at the plate and, at the same time, their own starter (Hahn) has been getting hit hard and is likely to struggle in this one. That should lead to an easy over especially when you consider both teams also had to use extra bullpen yesterday due to the double-header. 8* OVER the total in Tampa Bay |
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06-10-17 | Twins +137 v. Giants | Top | 3-2 | Win | 137 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Minnesota Twins Money Line (+) @ San Francisco Giants @ 4:05 ET - The Twins won 4-0 last night and the Giants struggles at the plate continued. San Francisco has now been held to 3 runs or less in 7 of their last 11 games. The Giants are likely to struggle again here as they face a tough hurler in Jose Berrios. The Twins right-hander is 4-1 with a 2.75 ERA and a 0.89 ERA as a starter this season. Minnesota is a perfect 3-0 in his road starts this season and, overall, the Twins are an incredible 19-8 in road games this season. Keep in mind, the Giants have a losing record at home this season and Jeff Samardzija is 2-7 on the season. The San Francisco right-hander has given up "only" 3 earned runs in each of his last two home starts but he allowed a total of 18 hits in those two outings even though the starts combined for a total of less than 11 innings. The Giants are only 2-4 this season after being shutout while the Twins are 3-1 this season after shutting out their opponent! San Francisco is an ugly 7-14 in day games this season. Their price has climbed higher since opening around the pick'em price range it truly belonged in. That said, there is phenomenal line value here with the underdog Twins. The Giants have lost 8 of their last 11 games and that includes 4 straight home games. The Twins have won 17 of their last 22 road games! Berrios has good stuff and the Giants hitters have no experience him. Samardzija has been hit hard in recent home starts and the Twins have a number of hitters with significant experience against him. 10* MINNESOTA TWINS money line in afternoon action Saturday |
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06-10-17 | Phillies v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 2:15 ET - Despite 18 hits in yesterdays game, it easily stayed under the total as the Cardinals prevailed 3-2. I won't hesitate to come right back with the over in this afternoon's rematch. The ball tends to carry well in afternoon games at Busch Stadium and the wind is going to be blowing out to left-center in warm day game action in St Louis Saturday. The Phillies are starting Nick Pivetta and he continues to be shaky on the mound. In his most recent start he only allowed 3 earned runs but he did give up 6 hits plus walked 3 in his 5 innings of work. That short start means that Pivetta has not lasted longer than 5 innings in any of his 5 starts this season. Carlos Martinez gets the start for St Louis today and he has good overall numbers on the year but he is just 1-2 with a 5.09 ERA in his 4 day game starts this season. Also, throughout his career, the righty has been tougher on right-handed bats than left-handed sticks and this season has been no different. Martinez has a 2.32 ERA against righties but a 4.42 ERA versus lefties. That is significant because the Phillies meat of the order has been hot and so, though they are righties, I expect them to stay hot against Martinez. Where the lefty/righty match-up helps is in the fact that much of the rest of the Phillies lineup includes switch-hitters and left-handed bats so don't be surprised if they enjoy some success here. With the Cards also likely to pound Pivetta, that sets this one up nicely for a slugfest on a warm afternoon at Busch Stadium with a hitter-friendly breeze. Also note that both of these bullpens have struggled this season and their ERA ranks them each in the lower third of the majors. Look for the over to make it 4-0 in Pivetta's last 4 starts. As a road dog of +125 or more this season, the Phillies are 14-7 to the over. Also, Philadelphia is 42-20 to the over in June games the past 3 seasons combined. The Cardinals are 15-9 to the over this season in their games against teams with a losing record. 10* OVER the total in St Louis in early afternoon action Saturday |
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06-10-17 | Rangers v. Nationals OVER 9.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Saturday 8* OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Texas Rangers @ 12:05 ET - Yesterday's 5-2 Rangers win stayed under the total but the teams did combine for 22 hits. In fact, Texas has now averaged 6 runs and 12.3 hits per game in their last 3 games. Also, the Rangers have reached double digits in hits in each of their last two road games. Saturday's match-up features a pair of southpaws. Even though the Nationals have trended under against lefties this season, they have actually pounded left-handers overall. Washington's .462 slugging percentage against lefties ranks among the tops in the majors. The Nats certainly shouldn't have much trouble with the offerings of Martin Perez. The Rangers southpaw has a 7.80 ERA in his last 3 starts and has struggled on the road, as per usual, this season. Perez is now 4-16 with a 5.15 ERA in the 30 road starts he has made in his career. I am aware of the fact that the Nationals Gio Gonzalez has impressive numbers at home this season but he has walked 14 in the 17 innings spanning his last 3 home starts and the Rangers are hot at the plate right now. The over is 13-6 this season in Texas' games against teams with a winning record. Look for the over to improve to 8-4 in Nationals interleague games on the season and 4-1 in road starts made by the Rangers Perez this season. 8* OVER the total in Washington very early Saturday |
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06-09-17 | Phillies v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in St Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 8:15 ET - The Phillies Jeremy Hellickson is winless in his last 3 starts and has compiled a 7.72 ERA and 1.72 WHIP in these 3 outings. The Cardinals Michael Wacha is winless in his last 3 starts and has compiled an 11.92 ERA and a 2.38 WHIP in these 3 outings. Also, Hellickson gave up 6 earned runs in 5 and 1/3 innings in his only career start at St Louis. Wacha has given up 4 earned runs or more in 2 of his 3 career starts versus the Phillies. The over is 8-2 in Wacha's 10 starts this season. Also, the over is 15-8 in Cardinals games against teams with a losing record this season. The Phillies are 42-19 to the over in June games the past 2+ seasons combined! The over is also 21-11 in Philadelphia's night games this season and the over is 10-4 when the Phils are a road dog in a range of +125 to +175. Light breeze blowing out toward left-center with hitter-friendly conditions expect on a mild night at Busch Stadium Friday. 10* OVER 8.5 runs in St Louis |
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06-09-17 | Angels +160 v. Astros | Top | 9-4 | Win | 160 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Friday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Angels Money Line (+) @ Houston Astros @ 8:10 ET - There is a lot of underdog value here with the Angels. Matt Shoemaker has held the Astros to a .200 batting average long-term. Also, this season the Los Angeles right-hander has simply been hurt by the long ball when facing Houston. He's giving up 2 homers in each start against them but only allowed a total of 8 hits in the 13 innings spanning those two starts. Also, Shoemaker has allowed just 2 earned runs in each of his last 2 starts at Houston. He comes into this start having compiled a 2.73 ERA in his last 5 starts overall. I know the Astros Brad Peacock has pitched surprisingly well overall since moving into the rotation. However, he has a 5.06 ERA in his last two starts and he also allowed 5 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work in his most recent start against the Angels and that wasn't that long ago - Sept. 30th. Off of a big 11-4 win yesterday afternoon at Detroit, Los Angeles has some momentum heading into Houston as the Angels have won 3 of their last 5 games. The Astros 6-1 win yesterday looks impressive on the surface but they got a 5-spot in the top of the 9th and lets not forget they had lost their two prior games. Simply put, Houston just can't keep winning at the ridiculous clip they were winning at. LA has won 6 of the last 8 starts made my Shoemaker and I see another upset coming here as the Angels have the advantage of having played a day game yesterday while the Astros were in a fierce battle in Kansas City last night. Travel situation favors the road team here. After a 10-game road trip, Houston could prove to be spent! 10* LOS ANGELES ANGELS money line |
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06-09-17 | Rockies +133 v. Cubs | 5-3 | Win | 133 | 4 h 44 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Friday 8* Colorado Rockies Money Line (+) @ Chicago Cubs @ 2:20 ET - As I discussed right here in yesterday's write-up on the Rockies - a +170 underdog winner - the Cubs just are not hitting the ball well at all right now. Their struggles continued in yesterday's 4-1 loss. The Cubs recently had a game where they exploded for 10 runs. However, they are 5-8 in their last 13 games and, in the 12 games not including the 10-run explosion Chicago has averaged just 2.8 runs per game! Also, the Cubs have had two 11-hit games in their last 13 games but, in the other 11 games they have averaged just 5 HITS per game! As for the Rockies, they have won 6 of their last 7 games and have averaged 6.7 RUNS per game during this hot streak. Also, Colorado is averaging 10.4 hits per game in their last 7 games. Colorado is one of the top road teams in the majors this season as they are 22-10 away from home. Also, the Rockies are 18-7 in day games this season. Look for the Cubbies to drop to 3-7 in Friday games on the year. The Rockies will have German Marquez on the mound and he gave up a couple of big homers that hurt him in his most recent start but still has a 3.27 ERA on the road this season. As for the Cubs, they are starting Mike Montgomery and the southpaw had been pitching out of the bullpen. The southpaw has had some trouble with giving up too many walks this season and Montgomery has been hit 70 points higher at home compared to on the road this season. Big road dog value AGAIN here. 8* COLORADO |
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06-08-17 | Rockies +167 v. Cubs | Top | 4-1 | Win | 167 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Colorado Rockies Money Line (+) @ Chicago Cubs @ 8:05 ET - The Rockies are a big dog here despite being 21-10 on the road this season. I understand the Cubs have Jon Lester on the mound and the veteran southpaw is known for pitching well at home. However, Tyler Chatwood gets the start for the Rockies and the right-hander went a fantastic 8-1 with a stellar 1.69 ERA away from home last season and is 3-3 with a 2.68 ERA on the road this season. Incredibly, opponents are batting just .168 against Chatwood when he faces them away from Coors Field. As you can see, Chatwood's overall numbers this season and last season have certainly been impacted by the fact he pitches his home games at hitter-friendly Coors Field. The fact is that Chatwood has been dominant in road outings and I expect that to continue here. The Cubs are only 5-7 in their last 12 games. In those dozen games, the Cubbies had just 2 big games at the plate. In the other 10 games, the Cubs averaged just 5.1 HITS per game. As you can see, Chicago really hasn't been hitting the ball well at all and Chatwood is 2-0 with a 0.69 ERA in his two career starts against the Cubs. The Rockies have won 5 of their last 6 games and have averaged 7 runs and 11 hits per game in those 6 games. Look for them to stay hot here as Lester has allowed 9 earned runs on 13 hits (including 3 homers) in last 2 starts and those outings have spanned just 9 and 1/3 innings! 10* COLORADO ROCKIES money line |
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06-08-17 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:05 ET - Many books opened this total up at an 8.5 yesterday afternoon but the betting markets are telling the odds makers they don't know what they're doing as the markets have forced the odds makers down to a 7.5 with this total as of Thursday AM. Long-time followers know how I feel about the value of the odds makers compared to the betting markets! The point is that we're getting extreme line value here with this big downward move on this total. Yes I know David Price is on the mound for the BoSox but he has allowed 14 earned runs on 32 hits in 18 innings of work spanning his last 3 starts against the Yankees. Also, all 3 of those outings came after the midway point of last season so it's not like it is ancient history by any stretch of the imagination. Price will be opposed by the Yankees Michael Pineda. The Yanks right-hander has allowed 7 earned runs on 13 hits including 4 homers in his last 2 home starts versus the Red Sox. Also, Pineda comes into this outing off of a rough start in his most recent outing. The over was 5-2 in the Yankees last 7 games before yesterday's game stayed just under the total. The over is 19-10 in Yanks divisional games this season. The over is also 13-7 in Boston's last 20 road games. More of the same here as both pitchers struggled against lineups that have fared very well against them in recent meetings. 10* OVER the total in the New York Yankees game |
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06-08-17 | Padres v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | 3-15 | Win | 105 | 5 h 28 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Thursday 8* OVER the total in Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres @ 3:40 ET - The Diamondbacks Pat Corbin has a 9.00 ERA and a 2.13 WHIP as he has been consistently hit hard in each of his last 3 outings. Also, the Padres will be seeing him for the third time already this season and they have totaled 30 hits in their last 3 road games. San Diego will have Clayton Richard on the mound in this battle of southpaws and he has given up only 6 earned runs (but on 20 hits!) in his last 11 and 2/3 innings of work. In other words, Richard has been on the cusp of getting rocked in each of his last two outings. Also, the southpaw gave up 6 earned runs in less than 4 innings of work in his most recent start at Arizona. That was this season and, in fact, this will already be his 4th start versus the Diamondbacks this season. Arizona is hitting .292 at home this season and averaging 6.2 runs per game at Chase Field. The over is 3-0 in their last 3 games and 4-1 in the Padres last 5 games. Also, when San Diego has been on a losing streak of 3 games or more, the over is 9-3 this season. As for the Diamondbacks, the over is 12-6 in their games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs so far this season. Look for another one here! 8* OVER the total in Arizona |
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06-08-17 | Cardinals v. Reds OVER 9.5 | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 25 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Thursday MLB 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs St Louis Cardinals @ 12:35 ET - The Reds Mike Leake has allowed at least 4 earned runs in each of his last two starts and he allowed 2 homers in each start. The Cardinals Scott Feldman has allowed 4 earned runs in each of his last two starts even though he didn't last past the 5 innings in either outing. There has been just 1 under in the last 7 meetings between these teams. The over is 19-7 in Reds divisional games this season and they're seeing Leake for the 3rd time already this season. Though Leake enjoyed success against the Reds in April, he is not in good current form and Cincinnati's lineup is very confident at home as they're averaging 5.7 runs per game at Great American Ball Park this season. The over is 15-7 in Cardinals games against teams with a losing record this season. They will also enjoy success as they're seeing Feldman for a second time this season and he's not pitching well like he was earlier this season. Hitter friendly ball park on a mild afternoon with just light winds not really having an impact and that means the ball will carry very well here. 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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06-07-17 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 0-8 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach Wednesday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:05 ET - I know CC Sabathia has pitched well recently but he has been rocked in 2 of his last 3 starts versus Boston and the Red Sox hitters are very familiar with him. As for Rick Porcello, though he has a decent ERA in his last 3 starts he truly has been getting hit hard and that means we get hidden value here with this over. The total opened up at a 9.5 even though Sabathia has a 2.04 ERA in his last 3 starts and even though Porcello has a 3.65 ERA in his last 2 starts. The key here is Sabathia's likelihood to struggle with the BoSox lineup AND the fact that Porcello has allowed 30 hits in the 19 innings spanning his last 3 starts! The Red Sox right-hander has simply been fortunate he's been able to avoid big damage in those starts but I expect an implosion is imminent for him with the way he's been getting hit so hard. The Yankees have averaged 6 runs per game in their last 9 games. The Red Sox have averaged 6 runs per game in their last 15 games which has encompassed a red hot 11-4 run for Boston. Two hot hitting teams, two starters likely to struggle, and a total moving favorably for our purposes. This is a great spot for a Top Total in my book. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees |
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06-07-17 | Pirates +137 v. Orioles | Top | 6-9 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Wednesday MLB 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Pirates Money Line (+) @ Baltimore Orioles @ 7:05 ET - Look for the Pirates to bounce back after they blew last night's game by giving up a pair of runs in the bottom of the 9th which led to an eventual 10-inning loss to the Orioles. The Pirates Chad Kuhl has a sparkling 1.19 WHIP in his road starts his season and a 1.18 WHIP in his last 3 starts overall. The point is that he has been better away from home than in Pittsburgh this season AND he is in better current form than what his ERA shows. I feel this is giving us substantial underdog line value here because another edge that Kuhl has is that that the Orioles have not faced him. As for the Pirates, they faced the Orioles Wade Miley last season and rocked him for 5 earned runs in just 4 innings of work. Even though the Baltimore southpaw has some solid full season numbers he truly has been quite hittable dating all the back to April 30th. Prior to a surprisingly solid start versus Boston in his last outing, Miley had given up 38 hits in the 27 and 2/3 innings spanning his 6 prior starts. As you can see from those numbers, he has gone through some very hittable stretches over the past 5 weeks and I expect that trend to quickly resume here. Also, the Pirates had won 6 of their last 9 road games prior to yesterday's loss. As for the Orioles, they had lost 16 of their last 23 games prior to the comeback win last night. Solid dog value here Wednesday evening and I'll take it! 10* PITTSBURGH PIRATES money line |
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06-06-17 | Indians v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach Tuesday MLB 10* Top Play OVER 10.5 runs +100 in Colorado Rockies vs Cleveland Indians @ 8:40 ET - I know the Indians Mike Clevinger has surprisingly decent numbers since moving into the rotation but, in my opinion, the last 2 starts are a sign of things to come. Clevinger has given up 7 earned runs in the less than 12 innings of work spanning his last 2 starts AND he gave up 2 homers in EACH outing! Now he has to pitch at hitter-friendly Coors Field and this one is offering great line value with the downward line move from an opener of 11. We're getting some value here because, just like Clevinger, Antonio Senzatela is over-rated and he is also showing some signs that a bit of an unraveling is about to take place. Senzatela has just one quality start in his last 4 starts. In the other 3 starts he only worked 5 innings in each start plus allowed 4 innings in each starts. That's a consistent 7.20 ERA in those 3 starts. Senzatela has been fortunate in that he gets a lot of run support and that has also helped lead the way to a 6-2 run to the over in his last 8 starts. The Rockies game Sunday at San Diego stayed under the total but that was just the 2nd over in Colorado's last 8 games. The Rockies have been a surprisingly strong team this season and they have averaged 5.4 runs per game at home this season. The Indians come into this one hot at the plate and have averaged 5.8 runs per game in their last 8 games. Senzatela's most recent home start was a gem but his 4 prior home starts went 4-0 to the over. At hitter-friendly Coors Field, look for the over to improve to 8-3 in Rockies Tuesday games this season. 10* OVER 10.5 runs in Colorado |
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06-06-17 | White Sox v. Rays OVER 7.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 18 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Tuesday MLB 8* OVER 7.5 runs +105 in Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:10 ET - Low total posted here because Chris Archer is on the mound for the Rays. I'll step in and take advantage because Jose Quintana has allowed 15 earned runs in the 7 innings spanning his last two starts for the White Sox. Also, Archer has a modest 3.86 ERA in his last 3 starts so it's not like he's been absolutely dominating the opposition of late. Even though Tampa Bay's most recent game stayed under the total it was preceded by 6 straight overs and was also the 8th straight time a Rays game finished with at least 8 runs scored. Of course 8 runs gets us in the money here and Tampa Bay had scored an average of 6 runs per game in their 6 games prior to being held to just 1 run Sunday. As for the ChiSox, 6 of their last 7 games have totaled at least 8 runs and the White Sox have given up 9.8 runs per game in their last 5 games! The Rays are 23-14 to the over in night games this season and 4-1 to the over when playing with a day off. The White Sox are 15-8 this season when playing against a team with a losing record, 5-2 to the over when playing with a day off, and in the 10 games they've played this season where they've entered on a losing streak of 3 games or more, only 1 of the 10 stayed under the total! 8* OVER 7.5 runs +105 in Tampa Bay |
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06-06-17 | Angels v. Tigers OVER 9 | 5-3 | Loss | -121 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Tuesday MLB 8* OVER 9 runs in Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels @ 7:10 ET - The Angels will have Jesse Chavez on the mound. This season he is 1-4 with a 5.78 ERA on the road. This is nothing new as, the past 3 seasons combined, he went 6-17 on the road with a 4.60 ERA. The point is, don't be surprised if he struggles again Tuesday night at Comerica Park on a cool evening but on a night when the wind will be blowing out a decent clip and aiding the hitters. As for the Tigers starter tonight, it is Daniel Norris and, overall, I am fan of the southpaw. However, Norris was fortunate he only gave up 2 earned runs in his starts against the Angels last month as he did allowed 7 hits in less than 6 innings of work. Also, Detroit is just 1-3 in the 4 home starts that Norris has made as he has a 5.32 ERA that could easily be even higher as he has a 1.77 WHIP in those 4 home outings. The over is 6-1 in the Tigers last 7 games. Also, prior to an under Sunday, the over was on a 6-3 run in Angels games. The over is 34-18 in Tigers June games the past 2+ seasons and the over is 6-1 this season when Detroit is playing after a day off. The Angels have won all 9 of their Tuesday games this season and their hitting has led the way as Los Angeles is 6-3 to the over in games on Tuesdays this year. Look for more of the same in this one. 8* OVER 9 runs in Detroit |
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06-06-17 | Pirates v. Orioles OVER 9 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Tuesday MLB 8* OVER 9 runs in Baltimore Orioles vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 7:05 ET - I know Ivan Nova has a low ERA on the season but he has allowed at least 3 earned runs in 5 of his last 6 starts plus he has been fortunate the damage hasn't been worse as he has been hit quite hard. In his last 6 starts Nova has given up 51 hits in 41 innings of work. Also, Nova has just 13 strikeouts in the 35 innings spanning his last 5 starts. A lot of contact from the hitters could quickly lead to trouble for Nova at hitter-friendly Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Certainly the O's Kevin Gausman is quite likely to also be struggling tonight. The right-hander, dating back to April 18th, has a 6.65 ERA! Like Nova, Gausman has been suffering a "hit parade" against opposition hitters of late as he has given up 35 hits in 21 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 4 starts! The over is 5-1 this season, and 29-14 the last 3 seasons, in Pirates games when they are playing after a day off. Also, the over is 6-2 this season in Bucs road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Look for the over to improve to 5-2 this season in Orioles inter-league games. Baltimore has averaged 9.8 hits per game in their last 5 games and Pittsburgh has averaged 10.9 his per game in their last 12 games! Plenty of hits are likely in this one too given the pitching match-up early Tuesday evening. 8* OVER 9 runs in Baltimore |
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06-06-17 | Red Sox +105 v. Yankees | Top | 5-4 | Win | 105 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Tuesday MLB 10* Top Play - Boston Red Sox Money Line (+) @ New York Yankees @ 7:05 ET - Considering that the Yankees are 17-8 at home this season and the Red Sox have a losing record on the road plus Masahiro Tanaka is 6-2 versus Boston in his career while Drew Pomeranz is winless in 4 career starts versus the Yanks, you may be surprised to see New York as such a small favorite here. However, this low line is absolutely justified and I am grabbing the small road dog BoSox in this one. Pomeranz is 2-0 in his last 3 starts with a 2.12 ERA and he has struck out 25 in the 17 innings spanning those 3 starts. Conversely, the Yankees have lost 4 straight Tanaka starts and the right-hander has an 11.21 ERA in these 4 starts. Plus Tanaka has given up 48 hits in the 31 innings spanning his 6 starts since he shutout Boston in late April. Much has changed for Tanaka since that rare shutout win over the BoSox and they get their revenge here on Tuesday night in a big AL East battle. 10* BOSTON on the money line |
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06-05-17 | Astros v. Royals OVER 9 | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 42 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB 10* Monday Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros @ 8:15 ET - Despite scoring 7 runs yesterday, the Astros game stayed under the total. Despite allowing 8 runs yesterday, the Royals game stayed under the total. I love situations like these as we now grab the over the very next day even though many will be looking at the under because of yesterday's results. That helps to hold a total in place and I like the value here in this spot because Houston's Mike Fiers has a 5.13 ERA on the season and Kansas City's Ian Kennedy is 0-5 with a 5.12 ERA on the season. Since Kennedy came off of the disabled list he's made 3 outings and none have lasted longer than 5 innings. I know Fiers has surprisingly decent numbers but this is still a guy who got hit at a .280 clip lase season and also is getting hit at a .280 clip again this season. Plus Fiers has given up 18 homers in his 11 starts this season. For the Royals, the over is on a perfect 5-0 run when they are off of a game where they allowed 1 run or less or scored 1 run or less or both (they had a 1-0 game recently). Look for this run of overs to improve to 6-0 Monday as they respond off of a shutout loss. Also, the red hot Astros offense has scored 68 runs in their last 7 games! That's an average of 9.7 runs per game and Houston should stay hot against Kennedy as he has a horrible 12.60 ERA in his last 3 starts. In Astros road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs, the over is 24-9 the past 2+ seasons! That means we're testing a combined 29-9 mark to the over in this one (including the aforementioned 5-0 involving Royals). 10* OVER the total in Kansas City |
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06-05-17 | Cardinals v. Reds OVER 9 | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 42 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Monday 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs St Louis Cardinals @ 7:10 ET - The Reds are off of a 13-8 home loss to the Braves Sunday afternoon. I am actually completing this write-up Sunday evening prior to the Cardinals match-up with the Cubs but, regardless of that outcome, I have no concerns about the Cards ability to score on Cincinnati's Asher Wojciechowski. The Reds right-hander is off of his first start since 2015 and he allowed 3 homers in just 1 inning of that start. Keep in mind, Wojciechowski has only seen limited MLB action but even in the minors he has struggled. He has compiled an ERA of 4.74 or higher in each of the last 3 seasons at the minor league level! Look for the Cardinals to pound him tonight. Although Carlos Martinez gets the start for the Cardinals and has strong overall numbers this season, the right-hander is just 1-3 with a 4.94 ERA in his 4 road starts this season. The Reds are averaging 5.5 runs per game at home this season and Great American Ball Park is a very hitter-friendly park. The over is 17-6 in Reds divisional games this season. As for the Cardinals, the over is 13-6 this season in their games against teams with a losing record this season. That means we're testing a combined 30-12 mark to the over in this one. I'll gladly step in after the Reds played another wild one yesterday. Their last 7 games have seen an average of 12 runs scored per game. 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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06-04-17 | Cardinals +161 v. Cubs | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach Sunday MLB 8* St Louis Cardinals Money Line (+) @ Chicago Cubs 7:35 ET - The Cardinals have dropped the first two games of this series but the Cubs are still just 2-6 in their last 8 games and the Cubbies have averaged only 5.5 hits per game in their last 11 games! I did NOT mistype that. The Cubs just are NOT hitting. They have a total of 61 hits in their last 11 games. Now I know the Cardinals have not been knocking the cover off of the ball either but they are not the ones laying a -180 price here either! The point is that there is great line value here with the big dog Cards looking to avoid the sweep. The last time the Cardinals Michael Wacha pitched at Wrigley Field he outdeuled Jake Arrieta and allowed only 3 hits in 6 and 2/3 innings. As for the Cubs Kyle Hendricks, he allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings at San Diego in his most recent start. What is the concern with that? The Padres have a .374 slugging percentage on the season. That ranks them 29th out of 30 teams in the majors! Now Hendricks faces a Cardinals team with a respectable .421 slugging percentage against right-handed pitchers this season. St Louis went 11-5 from June through the end of the season last year in Wacha's starts. The Cubs are just 2-4 in Hendricks' last 6 starts. The Cubs are also just 2-7 in Sunday games this season. I love the big dog upset value in this one and won't hesitate to grab it. The whole world will likely be lining up on the Cubs here and you know what usually happens when that is the case. Fade the masses and grab the value here. 8* ST LOUIS CARDINALS money line Sunday evening |
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06-04-17 | Astros v. Rangers +124 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach Sunday MLB 10* Top Play Texas Rangers Money Line (+) vs Houston Astros @ 3:05 ET - Brad Peacock gets the start for the Astros and he has only lasted a total of 9 innings in his first two starts in the rotation and gave up 4 earned runs in less than 5 inning of work in his most recent start. Martin Perez has a rather high ERA in his last 3 starts but only a 1.26 WHIP in those 3 outings and I feel he is offering some solid value here as we have the better starter on the mound and the home team. I know the Astros are in a fantastic win streak but they barely won yesterday's game and the Rangers are still a long-term 16-6 in home games against Houston the past 2+ seasons. After that tight one-run loss yesterday, look for the Rangers to bounce back here. The Astros are hitting 24 points lower versus lefties compared to righties this season. Also, Houston is 1-4 in Peacock's 5 career starts against Texas while the Rangers are 6-3 in the 9 career starts Perez has made against the Rangers. Look for the home dog to explode on offense today and that will prove to be plenty of run support for southpaw Perez as he has a solid 2.49 ERA in his career starts against the Astros! 10* TEXAS RANGERS money line Sunday Afternoon |
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06-04-17 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 8.5 | 7-3 | Win | 105 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Sunday 8* OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox @ 1:35 ET - Chris Sale has not been dominating like he was. The Red Sox southpaw has a 4.73 ERA in his last 5 starts. The Orioles will have Chris Tillman on the mound and he has a 7.90 ERA and 1.98 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Sale has allowed 23 hits in his last 19 and 1/3 innings. Tillman has allowed 21 hits in his last 13 and 2/3 innings. We are getting line value here because of the long-term history of these two hurlers and the fact is that neither one is in good current form right now. Also, these lineups have plenty of familiarity with the starting pitcher they are facing today. Look for a 3rd straight over in Sale's starts. Also, the over is 5-2 in BoSox Sunday games this season and the over is 9-5 this season when the Red Sox are on the road and the posted total is 8 or 8.5 runs. The over is also 5-2 in Orioles Sunday games this season and I look for the over to improve to 3-0 in O's games this season when they are a home dog in a range of +125 to +175. In fact, this game could be an upset today but I don't trust Tillman and that's why I feel the best value is with the over in this one. 8* OVER the total in Baltimore |
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06-04-17 | Giants v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Sunday 8* OVER the total in Philadelphia Phillies vs San Francisco Giants @ 1:35 ET - The Phillies Jeremy Hellickson has allowed 11 earned runs in 11 innings in his last 2 starts and has more walks than strikeouts. This included a home start too. Overall, in May, he struggled badly compared to his fantastic April. As for the Giants, they have Matt Moore on the mound. I know he comes up with strong starts at home. But on the road Moore is 0-4 with a 7.80 ERA and 1.90 WHIP in his 6 outings. Away from home, the over is 5-0-1 in Moore's starts this season. I expect more of the same Sunday as the over improves to 18-10 in San Francisco's road games this season. While neither one of these teams is an offensive juggernaut (nowhere close) the fact is that the Giants offense is better on the road than at home and the Phils lineup has been more productive at home compared to on the road this season. The last 2+ years, the Phillies are 39-17 to the over in June games and I look for another one to fly over here after yesterday's game stayed just under the total. Neither bullpen can be trusted as San Francisco's relievers have combined for a 1.64 WHIP when on the road this season. The Phillies bullpen, as usual, was shaky in closing out yesterday's game. Look for a slugfest with the wind blowing out at Citizens Bank Park this afternoon. 8* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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06-04-17 | Pirates v. Mets OVER 9 | 11-1 | Win | 110 | 6 h 35 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Sunday 8* OVER the total in New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 1:10 ET - Rare Mets under yesterday as they have been few and far between this season. In fact, when playing on back to back days this season, the Mets have NEVER had an under on 2 consecutive days. It has yet to happen this season and I don't expect that to change here. The Mets have Tyler Pill on the mound but he's only getting some starts because of Steven Matz and Seth Lugo working to return from elbow injuries. Though he only gave up 1 earned run in his first start, Pill was fortunate as he allowed 6 hits and 3 walks in just 5 and 1/3 innings of work. The Pirates will have Trevor Williams on the mound for this one and he has a 6.92 ERA in his last 3 starts. Even though his recent outings, overall, look solid he has also faced Arizona and Philadelphia at home and those are two of the worst hitting teams in the majors when on the road. The point is, don't be surprised when Williams struggles against the Mets. New York is 20-4 to the over this season in their games against teams with a losing record. Pittsburgh was on a 7-2-1 run to the over before yesterday's game stayed under the total. Look for the big "over trend" for these clubs to resume this afternoon. 8* OVER the total in New York Mets |
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06-03-17 | Astros v. Rangers +154 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Texas Rangers Money Line (+) vs Houston Astros @ 7:15 ET - The Rangers Andrew Cashner has been solid with a 2-1 record and 2.90 ERA in his last five outings. Opponents are hitting only .079 against him with runners in scoring position as he continues to be at his best in key situations. Even though he is winless in his three starts against the Astros in his career he has been solid with a 2.90 ERA. As a result, I feel we're being offered solid home dog value here with the Rangers. The Astros have Lance McCullers on the mound and he is 0-3 with a 6.27 ERA in his 4 career starts versus Texas. Though most of the bad numbers were in his first career start against the Rangers it does not change the fact that Texas has a little extra confidence when facing McCullers and his winless record could be in his head a bit. I know the Astros have been hot but this is tremendous home dog value that is too strong to pass up in the case of in-state rivals that don't like each other plus Cashner has a 1.96 ERA at home this season. Look for Houston to drop to 2-6 in Saturday games this season while the Rangers improve to 18-11 at home. 10* TEXAS RANGERS money line Saturday evening |
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06-03-17 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:15 ET - This is a contrarian play as the total has already moved lower and many will look for an under here because David Price is on the hill for the Red Sox and because of Dylan Bundy's long-term numbers for the Orioles this season. However, Price struggled in a rehabilitation assignment before making his first start of this season and I would not be surprised to see him struggle here on the road after enjoyed success in a 5-inning stint in his first start of this season. The Orioles are very familiar with Price and are facing a southpaw starter for the 4th time in their last 8 games. The O's have won 3 straight games and averaged 6.7 runs per game but they'll be hindered by their own starter in this game. I know Baltimore's Bundy has great numbers this season but he is facing the Red Sox for the 4th time already this season. Boston is averaging 6.3 runs per game in their last 12 games and I expect this to be a breakthrough game for them today against Bundy as the more a team sees a pitcher the more it tends to help that lineup make the proper adjustment. 4 times in 2 months is a lot! This is a contrarian play all the way but I expect the BoSox to bounce back after a miserable day at the plate yesterday. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore |
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06-03-17 | Nationals v. A's OVER 9 | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Saturday 8* OVER 9 runs in Oakland A's vs Washington Nationals @ 4:05 ET - The A's are much better at home than on the road at the plate. Even though they only scored 3 runs yesterday that was against Stephen Strasburg. They will certainly fare much better against a struggling Joe Ross. The Nationals right-hander got rocked by a weak Padres lineup in his most recent start. Also, that was at home. On the road this season Ross has a 6.17 ERA. The A's will have Daniel Mengden on the mound for this one. He got absolutely crushed in his first start of this season which was at Cleveland Monday. Will he improve here? History says he will not as he went 2-9 with a 6.50 ERA in his 14 starts last season. That said, let's take advantage of the low total posted here and look for a slugfest on a mild afternoon in Oakland where there the wind will be blowing out toward center. The ball does tend to carry a little better in day games on the West Coast. Look for the over to improve to 6-2 in Washington's inter-league games this season. Also, the over is 15-8 this season in Athletics games against teams with a winning record. 8* OVER the total in Oakland |
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06-03-17 | Yankees v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | 7-0 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 38 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Saturday 8* OVER 9 runs in Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees @ 1:05 ET - The Blue Jays have struggled against lefties this season but Jordan Montgomery has been shaky in recent road outings. The Yankees southpaw was fortunate he was only charged with 1 earned run in his most recent road start as he allowed 8 hits in only 4.3 innings of work. In his prior road start Montgomery allowed 5 earned runs in just 5 innings of work. The Jays, at home, will do some damage against a struggling lefty. The Yankees should stay hot at the plate too as they face Toronto's Joe Biagini. The right-hander has a 6.28 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He's hardly been "electric" with his offerings and the Yanks have averaged nearly 7 runs per game in their last 6 games and 5 of the 6 have gone over the total. Overall, after yesterday's result, Yankees divisional games this season are now 18-7 to the over. Look for another one here as the over improves to 12-6 in Yanks day games this season. 8* OVER 9 runs in Toronto |
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06-02-17 | Indians v. Royals OVER 9 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Indians @ 8:15 ET - I know Josh Tomlin just shut down the Royals in Cleveland and has had great success against them this season. However, they're now facing him for the 3rd time in less than 4 weeks and familiarity generally leads to success for the hitters. Tomlin had been rocked in consecutive starts before shutting down KC last week so don't be surprised if he gets roughed up here as his recent struggles resume. As for the Royals, they will have Jason Vargas on the mound and he was very fortunate that he allowed only 2 earned runs to the Indians last week as he gave up 9 hits in less than 6 innings of work. Vargas also got rocked for 6 earned runs in just 4 innings of work in his most recent home start. The Indians have averaged 5.4 runs per game in their last 11 games. The Royals have scored at least 5 runs in 4 of their last 6 games. Kansas City was off yesterday and the over is 7-2 this season when the Royals are playing with a day off between games. This is a bit of a contrarian play considering the recent success Tomlin has had against the Royals but I expect a breakout game from the lineups here on a hitter friendly night at Kaufmann Stadium. They are familiar with the pitchers they are facing in this one. Very familiar in this divisional battle. 10* OVER the total in Kansas City |
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06-02-17 | Diamondbacks v. Marlins -113 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Friday 10* Top Play Miami Marlins (-) vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 7:10 ET - The Marlins Jose Urena continues to prove to be tough to hit. He has allowed only 20 hits in his 5 starts this season and that has spanned nearly 28 innings of work. He'll be opposed by the Diamondbacks Patrick Corbin and the Arizona southpaw has proven to be very hittable. Corbin has a 7.87 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in his last 3 starts overall. Also, in his 4 road starts this season he is 0-4 with a 9.45 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP. The Marlins lost a tight one yesterday but had previously won 4 straight games and they have a pitching edge here and the Dbacks are only averaging 3.6 runs per game on the road this season. Despite the disparity in records between these teams this season, the Marlins are favored with good reason and this is the perfect spot to be a contrarian. Lay it with the home team. 10* MIAMI |
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06-02-17 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Friday 8* OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:05 ET - The Red Sox will have Rick Porcello on the mound. He has a 4.21 ERA on the the season and, surprisingly a 4.74 ERA in his last 3 starts. I say surprisingly because those numbers easily could be much worse. Porcello has been rocked for 31 hits in his last 19 innings on the mound! He has been so fortunate that he has minimized damage in his recent starts but opponents are hitting .306 against him on the season and I look for the Orioles to crush him and they are a team that has a lot of power in their lineup so this is a dangerous match-up for Porcello. The Orioles will have Alec Asher on the mound and he gave up 6 earned runs in just 2 innings in his most recent start. Also, he gave up 2 homers to the Red Sox the last time he started against them plus allowed 7 earned runs in less than 4 innings of work in his only other career versus Boston. The Red Sox have averaged 6.6 runs per game in their last 11 games. The Orioles have scored 17 runs and pounded out 24 hits in their last 2 games. The over is 4-1 in Porcello's last 5 starts. 8* OVER the total in Baltimore |
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06-01-17 | Diamondbacks v. Marlins +114 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 49 m | Show |
Early Shocker - Rickenbach MLB 10* Top Play Miami Marlins Money Line (+) vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 7:10 ET - This is a contrarian play. Everyone will likely be lining up to back Zack Greinke. However, he has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 2 of his last 3 starts. The right-hander is facing a Marlins team that has won 7 of its last 10 games and averaged 6.5 runs per game in these 10 games. As for the Diamondbacks, they've lost 3 of their last 5 games and averaged just 4 runs per game during this stretch. Also, the Dbacks have averaged just 3.7 runs per game when on the road this season. Arizona is 60-80 and -$21,200 in games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs the past 3 seasons combined. Jeff Locke gets the start for the Diamondbacks here and he is returning from tendinitis in his shoulder. Is he ready? Well, let's put it this way...he has a 1.77 ERA in his 4 rehab starts! Also, throughout his career he has fared better in home starts. In the last 3 seasons combined he is 13-8 in home appearances with his ERA no higher than 3.63 in home outings in any of those 3 seasons. I know Locke does not have a good history against the Dbacks but they've seen him just once since the 2014 season. In other words, not much of that history is relevant here. Look for Locke to come up big here and Greinke's recent struggles continue. I like riding the red hot Marlins at home. Look for them to make it 5 straight wins. 10* MIAMI |
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06-01-17 | Yankees v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | Top | 12-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees @ 7:05 ET - The very first totals opened up at 9.5 on this game and it's now an 8.5 and I love the value we're getting here with two solid lineups. I know CC Sabathia has pitched better of late but he's faced some weak-hitting teams. He now faces a Blue Jays team that has won 8 of its last 9 games and averaged 6 runs per game in the process. Also, Sabathia faced the Blue Jays 4 weeks ago and was rocked for 6 earned runs in just 4 innings of work. I know Toronto's Marco Estrada has been pitching well but the Yankees have a .463 slugging percentage against right-handers and that ranks them as one of the top hitting teams in the majors against right-handed pitching. The Yankees have pounded out 42 hits and 23 runs in their last 4 games and Estrada has given up 4 homers in his last 3 starts versus the Yanks. Though he's pitched well overall I do look for Estrada to struggle again here. Prior to his solid start versus Texas he had allowed 5 earned runs in 2 of his last 4 outings. The over is 16-7 in Yankees divisional games this season. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees |
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06-01-17 | Rockies v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Thursday 8* OVER the total in Seattle Mariners vs Colorado Rockies @ 3:40 ET - Yovani Gallardo is winless in 11 games (10 starts) against the Rockies in his career and he has compiled a 5.70 ERA versus Colorado. Though he only allowed 3 earned runs against Boston in his most recent start he did throw 112 pitches just to go 5 and 1/3 innings. He allowed 7 hits plus walked 6 in that outing and Gallardo has now allowed 13 runs (12 earned) in just 9 innings in last 2 starts. Look for him to get rocked here. Even with getting shutout yesterday, Colorado has averaged 6 runs per game their last 13 games. The Mariners also should score plenty here as Kyle Freeland was fortunate to work out of a few jams in his most recent start. The Rockies southpaw allowed 8 hits in 6 innings versus the Cardinals but was fortunate to allow only 3 earned runs. He has given up 4 homers in his last 3 starts. The Mariners have won 4 straight games and have averaged 6.5 runs per game during this 4 game stretch. The M's will be facing a lefty for the 7th time in their last 13 games and that also is a big edge for them at the plate. The over is 11-5 this season in Mariners home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The Rockies are 4-1 to the over after getting shutout this season! 8* OVER the total in Seattle |
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06-01-17 | A's v. Indians OVER 8.5 | 0-8 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Thursday 8* OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Oakland A's @ 12:10 ET - Interesting patterns here. The A's Jharel Cotton has alternated good starts with bad starts all season long. After a good start at Yankee Stadium, look for him to get crushed at Cleveland. The Indians have alternated overs and unders dating all the way back to May 20th. After yesterday's game stayed under the total, look for an over here. The Tribe are starting Corey Kluber and he is coming off of the disabled list. He's coming back from a lower back injury and those are very tough on a pitcher. He has a 5.06 ERA on the season and Cotton has a 5.57 ERA on the season. The over is 14-7 this season in A's games against teams with a winning record. 8* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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05-31-17 | Red Sox v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:10 ET - With yesterday's 13-7 win, Boston is now 7-2 in their last 9 games and they've averaged 7.1 runs per game during this hot streak. The Red Sox will have Drew Pomeranz on the mound for this one. The southpaw is facing a team that hits lefties very well and will be facing a left-handed pitcher for the 3rd straight day. The White Sox have a .462 slugging percentage against lefties this season and that ranks #1 out of all 30 MLB teams. Also, with scoring 7 runs yesterday, they ChiSox have averaged 6.2 runs per game their last 11 games. You've got two lineups here that have plenty of confidence and, in addition to Pomeranz getting rocked, look for Mike Pelfrey to also struggle. I know that Pelfrey has pitched surprisingly well in his last two starts but, prior to that, he had a 5.70 ERA with more walks than strikeouts in his first 5 starts this season. Let's not forget that Pelfrey got hit at a .332 clip last season and has not finshed an MLB season with an opponents batting average of less than .300 since the 2011 season! Now he faces a strong Boston lineup that got to him for 5 earned runs in 5 innings in his only start against them last season. The most recent start for Pomeranz stayed under the total but, prior to that, the over was 3-0 in his last 3 starts. As for Pelfrey, I look for this start to move the over to 3-0 in his last 3 outings. 10* OVER the total in the Chicago White Sox game |
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05-31-17 | A's +137 v. Indians | Top | 3-1 | Win | 137 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
Early Shocker - Rickenbach MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Oakland A's Money Line (+) @ Cleveland Indians @ 6:10 ET - Mike Clevinger gets the start for the Indians and he has struggled in both of his home starts this season. In his first one he walked 5 in less than 5 innings of work. In his second one he gave up 4 earned runs on 8 hits in only 5 innings of work. I know the A's have been slumping a bit over the past week but facing Clevinger will turn them around and they have a big pitching edge with Sean Manaea on the mound. The Oakland left-hander gave up just 1 earned run only 3 hits in 7 innings of work when he faced the Tribe last season. Also, Manaea comes into this start off of a fantastic outing against the Yankees in the Bronx. Manaea has allowed only 6 hits in the 12 innings spanning his last two road starts. The Athletics have won each of his last two starts while the Indians have lost two of three with Clevinger on the mound. Even with yesterday's win, Cleveland is just 27-43 (and -$28,600) in games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs the past 3 seasons combined. The A's struck out far too many times in yesterday's game but Clevinger's stuff has not been that dominant and Oakland was only outhit 11-10 in the defeat last night. Look for them to get over the hump with the big pitching edge being the key in this road win Wednesday. 10* OAKLAND |
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05-31-17 | Cubs v. Padres OVER 7.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Wednesday 8* OVER the total in San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs @ 3:40 ET - I know the Cubs are slumping, struggling to score runs, and looking to avoid back to back sweeps on the West Coast. However, the Padres Luis Perdomo should bring out the best in them today! The San Diego right-hander has a 7.11 ERA in his 5 home starts this season. In his last 3 starts overall, Perdomo has an 8.40 ERA. He was rocked in his most recent home outing and I know Perdomo gets a lot of ground balls but that doesn't change the fact he was hit a .310 clip last season and opponents are hitting .295 against him so far this season. The Cubs lineup will get back on track here but the Cubbies issue today will also be their starting pitcher. Jake Arrieta has a great long-term reputation of course but he has now allowed at least 4 earned runs in EACH of his last 5 road starts! He's struggling away from Wrigley Field and the Padres lineup has extra confidence right now as San Diego has won 6 of their last 9 games and averaged 5 runs per game in the 6 victories. The over is 4-1 this season (and 22-10 the last 2+ seasons) when the Cubs are a road favorite of -175 or more. The Padres, the last 2+ seasons, are 26-11 to the over as a home dog in a range of +125 to +175. Look for more of the same this afternoon! 8* OVER the total in San Diego |
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05-31-17 | Reds v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -122 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Cincinnati Reds @ 12:35 ET - With yesterday's game getting over the total, the Reds are now 8-2 to the over this season when they are a road dog of +125 to +175 and the Blue Jays are 10-3 to the over in interleague games this season. The Reds are also 12-6 to the over in day games this season. Tim Adleman gets the start for Cincinnati and he is off of a great start but it came against the worst team in MLB as he got the win at Philadelphia. Prior to that victory, a game that stayed under the total, the over had been 4-2 in his 6 starts and he had given up 19 earned runs in the 22 innings spanning his 5 prior starts! The Blue Jays will have Mike Bolsinger on the mound and he has more walks than strikeouts in his 4 starts this season. When he has found the plate he has been hit hard too. Bolsinger has given up 13 runs (11 earned) on 20 hits in the 14 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts. All 3 of those starts went over the total and this should make it 4 in a row today in what is likely to be his final start. The only reason Bolsinger is starting today is because Francisco Liriano is out but he'll be back soon. Until then, Bolsinger's recurring struggles as a starter continue. 8* OVER the total in Toronto |
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05-30-17 | Astros v. Twins OVER 9 | Top | 7-2 | Push | 0 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros @ 8:10 ET - The Twins Jose Berrios has been fantastic but he did allow 3 homers in his recent start and the wind will be blowing out toward right field in tonight's game. That certainly could be an issue for the Astros starter tonight. Michael Fiers has given up 18 homers in his 9 starts this season and, in fact, had been relegated to the bullpen recently. However, he immediately is right back in the rotation because Charlie Morton went on the 10-day disabled list. Yesterday's game got completely nuts and I expect this could turn into another wild one. Fiers has just been a mess this season for the Astros and he has a 6.37 ERA on the road this season with only 1 of those 5 starts resulting in an under. Although Berrios has pitched surprisingly well, the Astros have reached double digits in hits in 4 straight games now. The Twins 15 inning marathon loss Sunday used up the bullpen and then they got exposed yesterday as they allowed 14 runs in the final 2 innings of Monday's loss. Berrios has been getting a lot of strikeouts but that also means the pitch counts go up and the Twins pen could be exposed again tonight. The over is 23-9 in the last 2+ seasons in Astros road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Also, the over is 37-22 in the last 2+ seasons in Twins home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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05-30-17 | Brewers v. Mets OVER 9 | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Tuesday 8* OVER the total in New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 7:10 ET - Zach Davies has shown a pattern in his young career and that is that he pitches better in day games than at night. He simply is proven to be much easier to hit under the lights. This season has been no exception as Davies has been hit at a .344 clip in his night starts. The Mets won yesterday's game 4-2 and are averaging 5.8 runs per game in their last 9 games. Yesterday's game was a rare under for New York as the over is 31-11 in Mets games on the season! Look for the over trend to quickly resume here as the Mets should pound Davies while their own starting pitcher certainly has some question marks of his own. Tyler Pill will be making his first ever MLB start and he doesn't get a lot of strikeouts. Getting K's is a key to shutting down the Brewers and even though Ryan Braun is out, the Brewers still have plenty of big sticks that can do some damage. Pill has been better in the minors this season but he's still taking a big step up here and he did get hit at a .292 clip in the minors 2 years ago and a .279 clip last year. He's been in the minors since 2011 and I look for him to struggle in his first ever MLB start. 8* OVER the total in New York Mets |
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05-30-17 | Mariners +130 v. Rockies | Top | 10-4 | Win | 130 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Seattle Mariners Money Line (+) @ Colorado Rockies @ 7:10 ET - The Mariners Ariel Miranda has given up just 2 earned runs or less in 5 of his last 6 starts. The Seattle southpaw has a 2.12 ERA in his last 3 starts and has struck out 21 in the 17 innings spanning those 3 outings. The Mariners are 4-2 in his 6 road starts this season. The Rockies will have Tyler Anderson on the mound and the southpaw has been solid in his recent starts but has a 5.24 ERA at home this season. Even though Miranda has a big road ERA, that was greatly impacted by just 1 ugly start at Philadelphia earlier this month. Overall, he's been solid on the road and, though the Rockies have been better against lefties than the Mariners have this season, there is another key factor here that favors Seattle in a big way. The M's will be facing a left-handed starter for the 6th time in their last 11 games. As for Colorado, their last 14 games have ALL come against right-handed starters! This is the first time in over 2 WEEKS that the Rockies are matched up against a southpaw starter. Yesterday's loss dropped Colorado to 16-28 in inter-league games the past 2+ seasons. The Mariners are 5 games over .500 in inter-league games since the start of the 2015 season and the M's are already 6-3 this season in inter-league action! Look for another win (at a nice underdog price) again on Monday. 10* SEATTLE |
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05-30-17 | Diamondbacks v. Pirates OVER 7.5 | 3-0 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Tuesday 8* OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 7:05 ET - I know that Robbie Ray has some fantastic recent numbers for the Diamondbacks and that the Pirates Ivan Nova has a low ERA on the season. However, there is plenty of reason to believe this one flies over the low total as those above factors are also giving us great line value here on a night when temperatures are mild at PNC Park and a gentle breeze will be blowing out to left field. The fact is that these pitchers matched up on the 14th in Arizona and there were 4 homers hit in that game. Also, even though Ray is off of back to back strong starts since then, he faced a weak-hitting San Diego team and a Milwaukee team known for being free swingers at the plate. As for Pittsburgh's Nova, he has allowed 28 hits in the 21 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts. In other words, he has been fortunate that he hasn't allowed more runs during this stretch and I expect him to get hit hard here. The over is 3-0 in Nova's last 3 starts and 3-1 in Ray's last 4 starts. The over is also 13-8 in Pirates home games this season and I'll take advantage of the low total posted on this one. 8* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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05-30-17 | A's +151 v. Indians | 4-9 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Tuesday 8* Oakland A's Money Line (+) @ Cleveland Indians @ 6:10 ET - Each team hit 3 homers yesterday and should the long ball be a factor today the A's are likely to hold an edge in that department. That's because Oakland pitcher Jon Gray has allowed just one home run in his last 3 starts while the Indians Trevor Bauer has given up 4 homers in his last 3 starts. Even though Bauer has pitched a little better of late he has a 6.05 ERA at home this season with 6 homers allowed in his 4 starts. As for Gray, he's simply been lights out of late with a 2.84 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Also, he's struck out 19 while giving up just 7 hits in the 13 innings spanning his last two starts. That's simply pure domination and I expect him to lead Oakland to the upset win here. Look for the Athletics to make it 3 wins in a row in Gray's starts. Even with yesterday's 5-3 win, the Tribe have a 10-13 record at home this season which has cost their backers $12,300 at Progressive Field so far this season. They are overpriced here and I am grabbing the underdog line value. 8* OAKLAND |
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05-29-17 | Tigers +101 v. Royals | Top | 10-7 | Win | 101 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Monday 10* Top Play Detroit Tigers Money Line (+) @ Kansas City Royals @ 7:15 ET - I successfully used Daniel Norris and the Tigers when they got a big upset road win at Houston in his most recent start and I certainly like him even more in this spot as he's matched up with a Kansas City team that, unlike the Astros, has struggled this season. Also, this appears to be a pitching match-up with Jason Hammel on the mound for the Royals. Hammel is 1-6 with a 5.98 ERA this season and it is not fluke as he has been getting hit at a .313 clip and not keeping the ball down in the zone (way too many outs through the air). Though Detroit's Norris doesn't have ultra impressive overall numbers on the year he does have a solid 3.62 ERA in his 5 road starts this season. Also, he's allowed 2 earned runs or less in 3 of his 5 start this month! Norris also has a 3.47 ERA in his starts against the Royals in his career. Conversely, the Royals Hammel has an 8.53 ERA in his career starts against the Tigers and they've hammered him for 3 homers in EACH of his last two starts versus Detroit. The Royals are an ugly 6-15 in divisional games this season and have gone just 4-9 in their 13 games against teams with a losing record this season. I am looking for the Tigers to improve to 3-0 in Norris' divisional starts this season. I know the Tigers don't have a great record but the Royals have struggled this season too and we've got a huge pitching edge here and the Tigers are averaging 4.7 runs per game against righty starters while the Royals are averaging just 3.1 runs per game against lefty starters. 10* DETROIT |
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05-29-17 | Mariners v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 6-5 | Push | 0 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Seattle Mariners @ 3:10 ET - The Rockies have been heating up at the plate. With yesterday's 8-4 win over the Cardinals, Colorado has now scored an average of 6.8 runs per game during their current 7-3 hot streak their last 10 games. Monday the Rockies take on the Mariners and Seattle got back on track with a 5-0 win at Boston yesterday. The M's have been struggling at the plate recently but a big win like that as well as now a day game at hitter-friendly Coors Field is the kind of sequence that can rejuvenate a dangerous lineup. The Mariners do indeed have solid hitters up and down their lineup and they should have no problems with the offerings of Tyler Chatwood. The Rockies right-hander has a 6.18 ERA at home this season. He also had a 6.12 ERA at home last season. It's one of the drawbacks of being a Rockies pitcher. Chatwood has seen first hand how this home park can be so tough on a pitcher and he has a huge road/home dichotomy as he has been tremendous away from home but struggled mightily at Coors Field. I don't expect the Mariners Sam Gaviglio to find Coors Field to his liking either. He's making just the 3rd start of his MLB career and in the rookie's first two starts he has a total of just 3 strikeouts. Remember, contact at Coors Field is not a good thing so if he can't mow hitters down here it's likely to be a long afternoon for him. The over is on a 29-17 run in Mariners inter-league games the past 3 seasons and I look for a slugfest in this one. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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05-29-17 | Yankees v. Orioles OVER 9 | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 59 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Monday 8* OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees @ 1:05 ET - These teams have gone over the total in all 6 of their meetings this season. Also, both teams had games that flew over the total yesterday. This snapped a trend of lower scoring games for each club and I expect some carry over from yesterday's games right into today and a 7th straight over in their head to head match-ups. The Orioles got pummeled at Houston but will be back home where they have won 15 of their last 21 against the Yankees. The Yanks are back on the road after taking 2 of 3 at home against Oakland but the Yankees are averaging 5 runs per game away from home this season. Also, New York has averaged 7.6 runs per game in their 6 games against the Orioles this season. Dylan Bundy gets the start for the Orioles and he was fortunate to escape some jams in his last start and did allow 6 earned runs in 6 innings in his prior start. Also, the Yankees are familiar with him from facing him twice late last season. The Orioles will be facing Jordan Montgomery for the 2nd time already this season and the southpaw is off of a solid start but allowed 9 earned runs in 11 innings in his 2 prior starts. The O's are 8-5 to the over in day games this season and 60-45 to the over the last 3 seasons combined in afternoon games. The Yankees are 11-5 to the over in day games this season and 14-8 to the over in their games against teams with a winning record this season. 8* OVER the total in Baltimore |
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05-28-17 | Cardinals v. Rockies -110 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Sunday 10*Top Play Money Line Colorado Rockies (-) vs St Louis Cardinals @ 3:10 ET – With the 10-0 win that the Rockies got in the series opener Friday, Colorado entered Saturday’s action having won 9 of their last 12 games. As for the Cardinals, that ugly defeat brought St Louis to a poor 2-7 in their last 9 games. Based on this pitching match-up for Sunday, I expect the Rockies to remain the hotter team and the Cardinals struggles to continue. Colorado will have German Marquez on the mound for this one and he has been in top current form as he has allowed 1 earned run or less in 4 of his last 5 starts. Also, though this is just his 2nd season in the majors and he has not seen a ton of action, Marquez has pitching surprisingly well at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Marquez has given up just 29 hits in his 30 innings at Coors Field. Those are very impressive numbers for this ballpark that is so tough on pitchers. Marquez also has been fantastic in day games in his career thus far. The Rockies right-hander has an ultra-impressive 1.20 ERA in his 5 career day starts and has averaged 6 innings in those 5 outings. He was strong in his only career start against the Cardinals while the Cards Lance Lynn did struggle the last time he faced the Rockies. I know Lynn has been impressive at times this season but, before shutting down the Dodgers at pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium in LA, he allowed 7 homers in his first four road outings of this season! Now he faces the Rockies in a hitter-friendly venue and Lynn’s toughest starts this season have come away from home. Also, I expect Lynn to struggle after throwing 123 pitches against Los Angeles on Tuesday. Don’t be surprised if he shows fatigue earlier than you would expect in this one. 10* Colorado Rockies on the Money Line |
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05-28-17 | Rays v. Twins OVER 9 | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 2:10 ET – The Rays Alex Cobb has not been the same pitcher since Tommy John surgery. He’s been inconsistent and about every other outing has been a rough outing for Cobb since he returned to the majors. Why expect a “rough one” here? Well one thing that is consistent about Cobb is that he has had a tendency throughout his entire career to struggle more on the road than at home. Also, since the Tommy John surgery, Cobb has seemed particularly vulnerable to left-handed batters and the Twins lineup will be loaded with left-handed bats and switch-hitters for this one. Also, the wind will be blowing out to center at a good clip on a mild afternoon in Minneapolis Sunday. In other words, all the proper variables are in place for Cobb to get rocked here. He is getting hit at a .271 clip in day games this season and has a 6.04 ERA against left-handed batters on the season. The Twins will have Kyle Gibson on the mound here and he was rocked for 6 runs in just 5 innings in his first start back after being recalled from the minors. In other words, his struggles continued even after being sent down to the minors! Simply put, Gibson just can’t “get right” this season and he has an 8.62 ERA in his 7 starts at the MLB level. Also, Tampa Bay has plenty of hitters who have enjoyed success against Gibson and, the way he’s throwing right now, he’s particularly vulnerable. The over is a perfect 4-0 in Gibson’s last 4 starts. The last 3 seasons combined the over is 35-21 in Twins home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. As for the Rays, they entered Saturday’s action having gone 17-8 to the over in their games against teams with a winning record this season. Look for more of the same on Sunday. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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05-28-17 | Rangers v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | 3-1 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Sunday 8* OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers @ 1:05 ET – Andrew Cashner gets the start for the Rangers here and he is 1-4 this season in his 8 starts and has more walks than strikeouts on the year. That’s always a bad sign for a hurler and it’s only a matter of time before he gets really crushed. Already this season, Cashner has faltered quite often on the road with an 0-3 mark and 4.43 ERA away from home on the year. The Blue Jays will have Joe Biagini on the mound for this one and he has not been able to work deep into any of his starts since he moved into the rotation. The other concern for him is that he has struggled at times with command of his pitches in his last two starts. Biagini has allowed 9 runs (8 earned) in just 8.1 innings of work spanning his last two starts. Look for more struggles here as Biagini again fails to log more than 5 innings. That certainly could expose the bullpen of the Blue Jays and those relievers entered Saturday with a combined 4.63 ERA in home games this season. The Rangers entered Saturday’s action with a bullpen that has a combined 6.69 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in their road games this season! Entering Saturday, the Blue Jays were on a 7-3 run to the over in their last 10 games. The Rangers entered Saturday on an 8-4 run to the over in their past 12 games. Also, Texas had gone 7-4 to the over in day games this season prior to Saturday’s match-up. While two solid starters were on the mound in Saturday’s game, the Sunday slated starting pitchers features a much more favorable match-up for the hitters! 8* OVER the total in Toronto |
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05-27-17 | Mets v. Pirates OVER 8 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 105 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
Total Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets @ 7:15 ET - Yesterday's game went over the total and the over is now an incredible 30-10 in Mets games this season. New York's games just keep finding their way over the total and yesterday's got there despite Pittsburgh scoring only 1 run in that game. Look for the Pirates lineup to get right back on track as they had scored 26 runs on 42 hits in their 3 prior games. The over is an insane 25-5 in Mets night games this season and 18-3 in their games against teams with a losing record. As for the Pirates, the over is 10-4 in their home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs so far this season. Though this pitching match-up may not seem conducive to an over, note that the Mets Zack Wheeler has not pitched in a week and he was already having issues with command of his pitches. He had walked 4 or more in 2 of his last 3 starts. The extra time off won't help here. I know he had asked the team for an extra day but then it turned into 2 extra days off and I would not be surprised to see him struggle here. As for the Pirates Gerrit Cole, I know he has great overall numbers but he got rocked by the Braves in his most recent start and now faces a Mets team that has scored 60 runs in their last 11 games! Overall, on the season the Mets are averaging 6.2 runs per contest in their road games. Also, the Mets bullpen has been horrible on the road this season. They entered Friday's action having a 7.17 ERA away from home so far this year. Wheeler has made 8 starts this season and he has not had a single one of those 8 result in an under! Look for the strong high-scoring trend in Mets games to continue here. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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05-27-17 | Royals v. Indians OVER 8.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 41 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Saturday 8* OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Kansas City Royals @ 4:10 ET - The Royals have had their share of issues at the plate this season but last night's 6-4 win bring KC to 6-6 in their last 12 games and Kansas City has averaged 6 runs per game in the 6 wins. That said, they should stay hot at the plate against a struggling Danny Salazar. The Royals just faced the right-hander early this month and they hit him hard and he also has been struggling ever since. Salazar has an ugly 8.77 ERA in his last 3 starts and he has allowed 8 homers in his last 4 starts. The Royals will counter with Jason Vargas. I know the southpaw has had some impressive starts this season and that has given him good overall numbers. However, the lefty has truly struggled of late and has given up 9 earned runs in the 10 innings of work spanning his last two starts. The Indians have scored 8 runs in each of their last two games against a left-handed starter. Overall, Cleveland has averaged 5.1 runs per game in their last 11 games. With yesterday's game totaling 10 runs, the over is now 10-4 this season in Indians home games where they are a favorite of -125 to -175. Their record in those games the last 3 seasons combined is 60-37 to the over! The over is also a perfect 3-0 in Salazar's last 3 starts. The Indians struggled against Vargas when they faced him in KC earlier this month but they are likely to fare much better this time around as they get him at home in Cleveland. Also, Vargas has labored a bit in his last two starts. More of the same here. 8* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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05-27-17 | Rangers v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 24 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Saturday 8* UNDER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers @ 1:05 ET - The Jays and Rangers got their sticks going a bit in yesterday's game but that was all about the pitching match-up. This one should prove to be all about the pitching match-up as well and that means some quiet sticks early Saturday afternoon. The under is 6-1 in the last 7 starts that Yu Darvish has a 2.31 ERA in his last 6 starts and continues to pile up the strikeouts. The Blue Jays will have Marco Estrada on the mound for this one and he has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 7 of his 10 starts this season. Like Darvish, Estrada has been piling up the strikeouts. The Rangers entered yesterday's action hitting just .218 this season on the road. The Jays entered yesterday's action having averaged just 3.8 runs per contest in their home games this season. The under is 6-1-1 in the 8 starts Darvish has made against Toronto in his career. The under is 4-2 in the 6 starts Estrada has made against Texas in his career. Entering yesterday's action, the under was 17-8 this season in Rangers games against teams with a losing record. Only 6 of the Blue Jays 16 days games this season have resulted in an over. This one shapes up to be a pitchers duel. 8* UNDER the total in Toronto |
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05-26-17 | Rays v. Twins +122 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
Contrarian Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Friday 10* Top Play Minnesota Twins Money Line (+) vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 8:10 ET - Chris Archer is the big name pitcher in this match-up and that's why the Rays are favored on the road. However, Archer has given up 9 earned runs in just 11 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts. Also, on the road this season, the Rays right-hander has gone only 1-2 with a 4.74 ERA in his 4 starts away from home. Another issue for him Friday could be run support because the Rays are only 5-10 against southpaw pitchers this season and have been quite anemic at the plate against lefties. The Twins will have left-hander Hector Santiago on the mound and he is 3-0 in home starts this season with a solid 3.07 ERA in his 5 starts in Minnesota. Tampa Bay's .217 batting average versus southpaws ranks among the worst in the league. Also, the Rays 515 strikeouts this season is far and away the worst in the majors and Santiago did strike out 9 in 7 scoreless innings versus Tampa Bay last season and that game was at Tropicana Field. Santiago is known to be even tougher when he is at home. The Rays did get the win at home yesterday but they do struggle against lefties and have lost 12 of 21 road games this season. The Twins have won 6 of their last 7 games overall and are also 16-5 in night games this season. Also, Minnesota's .441 slugging percentage against right-handers this season does rank them in the top third of the majors! Archer has gotten a lot of strikeouts recently but he's still given up plenty of big hits too and the Twins are hot again and on their home field. That means we're being given great home dog value here. 10* Minnesota Twins money line |
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05-26-17 | Angels v. Marlins OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 23 h 11 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Angels @ 7:10 ET - I am well aware of the fact that Daniel Straily has put together some impressive numbers this season. However, he has been rocked in each of his last two starts against the Angels and that includes a recent one, last August, where he gave up 4 homers in less than 3 innings of work. After getting shutout yesterday at Tampa Bay, I look for the Halos sticks to get back on track Friday. The last time they got shutout (May 20th) their next game flew over the total with 12 runs scored. Having had success against Straily, the Angels step into the batters box with plenty of confidence in this one. Certainly the Marlins sticks should have no trouble with the offerings of Jesse Chavez in this one. The Angels right-hander has an 8.18 ERA in his two career starts at Miami and he was rocked in both outings. Chavez also comes into this start in questionable form as he's allowed 4 homers and 7 earned runs in his last 2 road starts spanning just 11 and 1/3 innings! The Marlins were off yesterday and they are 4-0-1 to the over this season the 5 times they were coming off of a day off. Also, the over is 8-3 this season in Miami's home games where they are price in a range of -125 to +125 and the over is 22-8 this season in Marlins night games! The Marlins most recent game (Wednesday) stayed under the total but that was their first under in a week. Look for that recent hot "over trend" to resume Friday evening. 10* OVER the total in Miami |
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05-25-17 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
Total Smash - Rickenbach MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:10 ET - The home runs continue to fly at Miller Park and yesterday's over was the 8th in the Brewers last 11 games (both home and away). Overall, Milwaukee continues to be an "over team" and that shouldn't change today with Zach Davies on the mound. The right-hander has seen all 5 of his home starts result in overs this season and he has a compiled a 6.93 ERA and 1.91 WHIP in those outings! The Diamondbacks come into this game having scored an average of 6 runs per game during their red hot 8-1 run their last 9 games. Arizona won't slow down here as they take advantage of a pitcher (Davies) whom has given up 37 hits in less than 25 innings of work at home on the season. As for the Brewers sticks, I look for them to get to Robbie Ray early and often in this one. The Dbacks southpaw piled up strikeouts (but also gave up 5 earned runs in less than 6 innings of work) in his lone career appearance at Miller Park and that was just last season. Ray is coming off of a strong start but previously allowed 9 earned runs in 9 innings spanning his last 2 starts as both walks and home runs were an issue for him. The over is a perfect 3-0 in his last 3 starts and the Diamondbacks, overall, are 23-13 to the over the last 3 seasons combined when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. The Brewers are 18-7 to the over in home games this season and also 7-3 to the over in their games against left-handed starters. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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05-25-17 | Giants v. Cubs -106 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Chicago Cubs Money Line (-) vs San Francisco Giants @ 2:20 ET - The very first money lines that popped up on this game (when the limits were small) had the Cubs as a -150 favorite. It quickly dropped down into a pick'em price range. I understand that people are excited about Jeff Samadzija for the Giants here because he's been piling up strikeouts of late. However, before shutting out the Cardinals in his most recent start, Samardzija had been rocked for 9 earned runs on 19 hits in 13 and 2/3 innings spanning his two prior starts. In other words, just because you're piling up strikeouts doesn't mean that you're not having some problems when you don't locate your pitches so well and there is some solid contact for the hitters! That said, I am happy to grab the Cubs and fade a Giants team that is now 9-18 on the road this season after losing again last night. Keep in mind, yesterday's game had a tight finish but San Francisco had managed only 5 hits through the first 7 innings. The Cubs are starting Eddie Butler here and that was another reason for every one to jump on San Fran in this one. Butler did have control issues in his most recent start but this followed a fantastic outing in his prior start. I know his career numbers are ugly but a lot of that had to do with pitching at Coors Field as all prior year numbers were compiled as a member of the Rockies. Butler is actually 3-0 with a 3.22 ERA in his career starts against SF. Also, he had a great spring training and seems rejuvenated with the change of venue from Colorado to Chicago. Look for this start to be much like his first with the Cubs (a 6-inning shutout of the Cardinals) as he takes advantage of favorable pitching weather here. Unlike the mile high air of Denver, cool conditions with the wind blowing in from left field should help Butler to a strong start here at Wrigley Field as he makes up for his first start here being a frustrating one with all the walks. The Cubs are 126-72 at home the past 2+ seasons and the price here is offering great line value as the Giants road struggles continue. 10* CHICAGO CUBS |
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05-25-17 | Pirates v. Braves OVER 9 | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Thursday 8* OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 12:10 ET - Mild temps, afternoon game, wind blowing out to left at a good clip. Also, Pirates riding the momentum of last night's come from behind win as they rallied late to tie it and then won it in extra innings with an offensive explosion in the top of the 10th. As for the Braves, even with yesterday's loss, they've still won 9 of their last 13 games and have scored 5 runs or more in 8 of their last 10 games. That said, I like the line value here on this total as each team should get to at least 4 runs and we've got a total of 9. The Pirates have scored at least 4 runs in 9 of their last 12 games. Pittsburgh has Ivan Nova on the mound and he has impressive overall numbers on the season but he's been getting in a lot of jams in recent starts and he's fortunate the damage hasn't been worse. Nova has allowed 35 hits in 25 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 4 starts. Amazingly he's given up only 12 earned runs during this stretch but that is helping to give us some line value here as he's pitching worse than his ERA shows. As for Bartolo Colon of the Braves, his struggles are well-documented this season but he's been fortunate to allow only 3 earned runs in his last 2 starts even though he was crushed for 14 hits in 9 and 1/3 innings. Once again this is another statistical anomaly that is helping to give us line value with this total. Each of Nova's last 2 starts have gone over the total while Colon's most recent start stayed under but the over was on a 6-1 run in Colon's 7 prior starts. His next over streak begins here. The Pirates are 4-1 to the over this season in road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The Braves are 10-3 to the over this season in home games where their money line ranges from -125 to +125 and that is the case in this pick'em game for very early Thursday afternoon. 8* OVER in Atlanta |
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05-24-17 | Tigers +163 v. Astros | Top | 6-3 | Win | 163 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Detroit Tigers Money Line (+) @ Houston Astros @ 8:10 ET - The Tigers Daniel Norris doesn't have impressive numbers on the season but he is a very capable hurler and just has made a few "mistake pitches" in recent starts. He has struck out 16 in his last 16 innings and averages about 1 strikeout per inning on the season. Norris has an added edge here in that the Astros have never faced him and, also, Houston hasn't faced a left-handed starter in nearly 2 full weeks! Don't be surprised if the Astros struggle at the plate in this one. Speaking of struggling at the plate, Detroit has certainly had issues so far in this series but Charlie Morton should bring out the best in them. The veteran right-hander gets the call for Houston today and he gave up 3 homers in just 5 and a third innings versus the Indians in his most recent start. Overall, Morton has had some issues with too many walks in recent outings as well. Before losing 3 straight games and struggling at the plate, the Tigers had averaged 6.8 runs per game in their 5 prior games. After facing some tough hurlers and struggling, the Tigers will break out the big lumber today against Morton. He's just not of the same caliber of whom they had been facing. The result here is tremendous underdog line value. The Astros are 10-13 (down $7,500!) in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs the past 3 seasons combined. Also, the Tigers are 26-22 (+$7,000!) the past 3 seasons combined when they are entering a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more. Those records may not seem 'that' impressive but, remember, we're getting SIGNIFICANT plus money odds here and I like Norris over Morton in a BIG way in this one. 10* DETROIT |
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05-24-17 | Royals v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:05 ET - Not a lot of hitting in the first two games of this series but that changes today in the 3rd game of this 4-day set. The Royals will have Jason Hammel on the mound. He has given up 12 runs (11 earned) on 22 hits (including 4 homers) in his last 2 starts spanning 13 innings. The most recent of those two outings was against the Yankees so that means another bad start is likely here as the Yanks get a quick 2nd look at Hammel. The Royals right-hander has a 7.20 ERA with a horrible 2.07 WHIP in his 3 road starts this season. The Yankees will have Luis Severino on the mound for this one and he has struggled in his last two outings. The right-hander has solid numbers on the season but he's fading recently. Severino has given up 11 hits and 6 walks in the 7 and a third innings spanning his last two starts. Another note here is that if Hammel gets knocked out early, the Royals bullpen has a 6.12 ERA on the road this season. The over is 3-1 in Royals road games where their money line is in a range of +175 to +250. The over is a perfect 4-0 in the Yankees last 4 games that Severino has started. Also, the over is 16-8 this season in Yankees games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. When off of a loss this season, the over has gone 11-6 in Yanks game. 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees |
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05-24-17 | White Sox v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago White Sox @ 3:40 ET - Jose Quintana is off of a strong start for the White Sox but could struggle in this afternoon affair. Not only are the Diamondbacks one of the top hitting teams in the league in home games this season, Quintana is only 7-16 in road starts the last 3 seasons combined. Some guys like pitching at night more than day games and Quintana is one of those guys whether he would admit to it or not. The results don't lie. After pitching exceptionally well in his most recent start, Quintana's day game struggles resume. He is 1-4 with a 5.35 ERA in day games this season and two years ago he went 0-5 with a 5.49 ERA in day games! Last season's results were not as dramatic but he did fare worse under the sun compared to under the lights! Quinana will be opposed by Randall Delgado today and he is a reliever. Truly today's game is expected to be a "bullpen start" for the Diamondbacks as they'll be forced to use a number of arms. Delgado is unlikely to go deep into this game and he hasn't started a game since 2015. Yesterday's game was 4-3 by the top of the 3rd inning but inexplicably died out after that and the game ended 5-4. Look for the lineups to again get an early jump start today but this time they sustain it. In home games where their line ranges from -125 to +125 the Diamondbacks are 8-3 to the over this season and 59-34 to the over long-term. Yesterday's under was just the 4th for the ChiSox in their last 14 games. The odds makers opened this one up at a 10 and it then dropped to a 9.5 and the odds makers have it right. Look for double digits in this one. 8* OVER the total in Arizona |
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05-24-17 | Twins v. Orioles -107 | 4-3 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 13 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Wednesday 8* Baltimore Orioles Money Line (-) vs Minnesota Twins @ 12:35 ET - The Orioles I have no chance in this game. The line opened up with them at -145 and is now down to a pick'em price range. Of course my first sentence of this write up is in jest but the point is that it is funny how quickly the markets can fixate on certain things. Definitely Jose Berrios has some impressive numbers early this season but he has only made 2 starts. Let us not forget that Berrios gave up 8 hits (including 2 homers) in just 5 innings of work in his lone appearance against the Orioles last season and that was at home! As for Chris Tillman, he's making just his 4th start of this season but he appeared very strong in his most recent start and is getting back into top form. Tillman has a poor career record against the Twins but truly hasn't pitched all that poorly against them. In fact, in his most recent outings versus Minnesota Tillman gave up only 10 hits while striking out 17 in 13 and 2/3 innings of work! Even with yesterday's home shutout loss, the Orioles are 15-6 in home games this season and 5-1 when the total on those home games is 9 or 9.5 runs. The Twins are only 8-13 in day games this season. I am well aware of Minny being the hotter team of late but the Orioles Tillman is 66-33 his last 99 major league decisions. Berrios was 3-7 with an 8.02 ERA last season and that was his first in the majors. He's only made two starts so far this season. Let's not give him the Cy Young award just yet. 8* BALTIMORE |
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05-23-17 | Rangers v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 6-11 | Win | 105 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers @ 7:10 ET - This total has dropped from an opener of 9.5 to a 9 and could even be headed toward 8.5 in some shops. Either way, this is opening up great line value on the over. I am well aware of Rick Porcello's long-term success at Fenway Park. However, the Rangers are 11-1 in their last 12 games and have averaged scoring 6 runs per game in these dozen games. Also, Porcello has allowed 9 runs (7 earned) on 18 hits in just 12 innings of work spanning his last 3 starts. Also the last two times Porcello has faced the Rangers as a host (including last season at Fenway Park) he has been rocked for a combined 12 runs (11 earned) on 24 hits in just 11 and 1/3 innings of work! Porcello is likely to need plenty of run support from his offense today and he is likely to get it! Texas is starting Andrew Cashner and he is off of back to back strong starts but those were at home and against two teams that are struggling to score runs this season - Oakland and Philadelphia. Now he's on the road where he has had some issues with command of his pitches and Cashner is facing a Red Sox team that will build off of a huge 12-run outburst that wrapped up their road trip Sunday. The Rangers are 5-1 to the over in their last 6 games against right-handed starters. The Red Sox are on an overall 12-2 run to the over in their last 14 games. Texas is 7-3 to the over this season in their games against teams with a winning record and the Red Sox are on a 7-0 run to the over when they're off of a win! 10* OVER the total in Boston early Tuesday evening |
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05-23-17 | Rockies -127 v. Phillies | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Tuesday MLB 8* Colorado Rockies Money Line (-) @ Philadelphia Phillies @ 7:05 ET - Who has the most road wins in ALL of the majors this season? Colorado! With the Rockies win yesterday over the horrifically slumping Phillies, Colorado is now 16-7 on the road this season. The Phillies have fallen below .500 and simply are not hitting well at all. Conversely, the Rockies are a red hot 6-2 in their last 8 games and they've averaged 6.9 runs per game during this solid stretch. Colorado has reached double digits in hits in 6 of those 8 games. At the other end of the spectrum, the Phillies are averaging just 6.6 hits per game in their last 7 games. As you can see from the numbers above, the Rockies are averaging more RUNS per game in their last 8 than the Phillies are HITS in their last 7. Huge difference between these ball clubs right now and the Rockies also have a huge pitching edge here. German Marquez gets the start for Colorado and he has given up just 1 earned run in the 13 innings spanning his last two starts overall. Also, in his two road starts this season Marquez has an 0.82 ERA. As for the Phillies, they have Zach Eflin on the mound tonight and he is winless on the season and has a 6.88 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in his last three starts. 8* COLORADO money line Tuesday |
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05-23-17 | Royals v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Tuesday 8* OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:05 ET - The Royals Danny Duffy had a strong start versus the Yankees last week. However, that start was in Kansas City and the southpaw now faces the Yanks in the Bronx where they are hitting .279 on the season and averaging 6.3 runs per game. Keep in mind, before Duffy shut down the Yankees last week, he had given up 15 earned runs on 33 hits in the 23 and 1/3 innings spanning his four prior starts. As for the Yankees starter, Jordan Montgomery, he got rocked at Kansas City last week. The left-hander has now allowed 9 earned runs in the 11 innings spanning his last 2 starts. The over is 3-1 in his home starts this season and the Royals have had just 1 under in Duffy's 4 road starts this season. The over is 16-7 this season in Yankees games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs and there is great line value here considering the Royals should have no trouble with a quick second look at Montgomery while the Yankees fare much better at home against Duffy. 8* OVER the total in New York Yankees early Tuesday evening |
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05-22-17 | Twins v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | Top | 14-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins @ 7:05 ET - The Orioles game stayed under the total yesterday but 4 of their 6 prior games had gone over the total and Baltimore averaged 7 runs per game during that stretch. Look for the hot hitting to resume today after the O's were held to just 1 run yesterday. Facing the Twins Kyle Gibson should help tremendously in that regard. Gibson is winless on the season and has an 8.20 ERA and 1.94 WHIP as a starter on the year. Each of his last three starts have gone over the total. The Twins should also enjoy plenty of success at the plate tonight as they will be able to "tee off" against a struggling hurler too. Ubaldo Jimenez gets the start for the Orioles and each of his 3 home starts this season have gone over the total. Overall, in his 3 most recent starts, Jimenez has given up 2 homers in all 3 starts while compiling an 8.44 ERA in these outings. The Twins played a double header yesterday and both games went over the total. The over is now 10-6 in Minnesota's games this month and the over in May Twins games is now 43-24 the last 2+ years. Look for the over to improve to 4-0 in Gibson's last 4 starts and 4-0 this season in Jimenez home starts. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore |
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05-21-17 | Rangers -120 v. Tigers | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach Sunday MLB 10* Top Play Texas Rangers Money Line (-) @ Detroit Tigers @ 8:05 ET - The Rangers had won 10 in a row before getting hammered yesterday and I expect Texas to bounce right back here. Not only did the Rangers win those 10 games by an average margin of 3.7 runs per game, they also have a huge pitching edge on the mound in this game. Yu Darvish gets the start for Texas and the right-hander has a 2.61 ERA and 1.09 WHIP on the season. The Tigers have left-hander Matthew Boyd on the mound and he has a 7.31 ERA and 1.81 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Also, Darvish is 6-0 with a 3.46 ERA against the Tigers in his career while Boyd is 1-3 with a 5.24 ERA in his career against the Rangers. Those numbers for Boyd are even after he pitched a strong game versus Texas last season. In other words, his other recent outings versus the Rangers have been ugly! The Rangers have won 5 straight Darvish starts while the Tigers have lost 4 straight Boyd starts. This one has the makings of a road rout and the Rangers have gone 10-3 when they are a road favorite in a range of -125 all the way up to -175 in recent seasons. Look for the Tigers to drop to 8-13 this season when off of a win. 10* TEXAS |
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05-21-17 | Diamondbacks v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
Bulldogs Best - Rickenbach Sunday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 4:40 ET - Another blowout win for the Dbacks yesterday and they've now won 5 straight games and the over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games. The Padres have been slumping but they have had just 2 unders in their last 9 games and I expect them to enjoy success against Zach Godley this afternoon. I know Godley has surprisingly impressive overall numbers so far this season but he's only made 3 starts and he struggled the most in his start against the Padres. In fact, in his last 2 starts against San Diego he has given up 6 earned runs in 10 innings of work. Godley is not the only one with a match-up "issue" here as the Padres Clayton Richard has struggled against Arizona. The San Diego southpaw has given up 14 runs (11 earned) on 23 hits in the less than 15 innings of work spanning his last 3 starts against the Dbacks. Also, Richard comes into this start having allowed 11 earned runs in the 11 innings spanning his last two home starts. He simply continues to get hit hard time and time again. The over is 3-1 in Richard's home starts this season and 2-1 in all of Godley's starts this year. The over is 8-2 in Padres games this season when they are on a losing streak of 3 games or more. The over is 23-12 the last three seasons combined when Arizona is on a winning streak of 3 games or more. 10* OVER the total in the San Diego |
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05-21-17 | Brewers v. Cubs OVER 10 | 6-13 | Win | 100 | 4 h 9 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach Sunday MLB 8* OVER the total in Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 2:20 ET - Mild afternoon in Chicago with the wind blowing out toward center or right-center for this game at a pretty good clip. That will make it a very hitter-friendly afternoon game at Wrigley Field Sunday. The Cubs Jake Arrieta has a 6.89 ERA in his last 3 starts. Also, Arrieta has a 5.30 ERA in his last 3 starts against the Brewers and they've gotten to him for 3 homers in his last 2 starts against them at Wrigley. Chase Anderson gets the start for Milwaukee here and he has cooled off, as expected, after a red hot April. Anderson has given up 22 hits in less than 15 innings of work spanning his last 3 starts and with the Cubs powerful lineup he's likely to struggle here. The Cubs have averaged 7 runs per game in their last 4 games. The Brewers have been one of the hottest teams in baseball and they've averaged 6.6 runs per game in their last 11 games. The over is 8-0 this season in Cubs home games where they are a favorite in a range of -175 to -250. Also, the Cubs are 13-6 to the over this season when off of a loss. Milwaukee is 16-8 to the over this season when off of a win. Also, when on a winning streak of 3 games or more, the Brewers are 22-11 to the over the past 3 seasons combined including 5-1 to the over this season! 8* OVER the total in the Chicago Cubs game Sunday afternoon |