Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #919 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins @ 7:10 ET - This total has been as high as a 11.5 and, of course, looks too high to the casual observer. However, this game has slugfest written all over it and is painted a solid 11 across the board as of early Wednesday morning. I am going with a strong play on the over. Jose Berrios still carries plenty of "name recognition" for the Twins but he has been having mechanical issues and, as of late, is not the "Berrios" that we're use to seeing! Berrios compiled a 7.57 ERA and got rocked at a .333 clip in the month of August. Facing a potent Red Sox lineup at Fenway Park on an evening when the wind is expected to be blowing out is not a good situation for the Twins right-hander to try to right himself. Speaking of pitchers likely to struggle, enter Boston left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez into the equation here. Rodriguez had a 4.87 ERA as of late June. He then had an excellent July but his low ERA in the month of August is an aberration. I say that because the lefty was quite fortunate. Rodriguez was excellent against the Padres at hitter-friendly San Diego and against the downtrodden Orioles. However, in his other 4 August starts Rodriguez allowed 31 hits in 22 and 2/3 innings. Now he faces a potent Twins lineup that did get to him for 4 earned runs in 7 innings when they faced him in mid-June. Now they get a 2nd look at him and he'll be even more hittable in the "round two" match-up for this season. The Twins have a .530 slugging percentage against southpaws this season and that ranks them #1 in the majors. The Red Sox have a .280 batting average against right-handed hurlers this season which ranks them #1 in the majors. You can see why I am expecting at least a dozen runs in this game with great slugfest potential Wednesday. 10* OVER the total in Boston

Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #903 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) @ Cincinnati Reds @ 6:40 ET - Two teams and two pitchers going in opposite directions. With another win yesterday's game, the Phillies are a perfect 3-0 this month and also have won 5 of their past 7 road games. With their loss yesterday, the Reds have now lost all 3 of their games this month and have lost 6 of their 7 games played in the past 6 days. Cincinnati starter Trevor Bauer got crushed in his final start for the Indians, that ugly effort at KC that sent him packing to the Reds and he hasn't been able to shake it off ever since. Bauer has made 6 starts for Cincinnati and he has gone 1-4 with an 8.40 ERA in those outings. Opponents have hit .311 against Bauer in a Reds uniform. Conversely, the Phillies Aaron Nola continues to pitch like the ace right-hander that he is. Nola is 6-2 with a 2.52 ERA in the dozen starts he has made since July 1st. While the Reds have a losing record against NL East teams this season, the Phillies are 20-11 against NL Central teams on the year. Philly is still very much alive in the NL wild card race while the Reds have seen their already slim hopes completely fade away now after losing 6 of 7 games. You can see the difference in the clubhouse of each of these teams right now and the Phillies domination of the Reds this season continues on Wednesday. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Total Payback - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Tuesday 8* OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants @ 7:45 ET - I lost with this play yesterday but will come right back with it today. The Cardinals are starting Jack Flaherty. Though he had a great start against the Giants in July, he entered that outing with a 9.95 ERA in the two prior starts he had made against San Francisco in his career. The right-hander has a 1.86 ERA in day games this season but a 4.20 ERA in his night starts. I know Flaherty has been hot lately but I see him getting tripped up here. Also, the Giants Dereck Rodriguez should get pounded. He allowed 4 earned runs in 6 innings in his only career start at St Louis. Also, the San Francisco right-hander got hit at a .305 clip and compiled a 7.11 ERA in his 4 August starts. Each of the last two games between these teams has resulted in an under but prior to that the over was 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these teams. Of the 4 starts Rodriguez made last month only 1 resulted in an under. The over is 18-9 this season when the Giants enter a game as as an underdog of +150 or more. 8* OVER the total in St Louis

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #977 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Houston Astros @ 7:40 ET - Jordan Lyles has pitched surprisingly well since coming over to the Brewers from the Pirates. However, Lyles has been hit quite hard in 2 of his last 3 starts (13 hits in 9.1 innings in those two outings) and I foresee the wheels coming off here. That's because Lyles now faces a very potent Astros lineup and I expect a similar start to his outing against the Nationals in mid-August when he allowed 5 earned runs in 4 innings. The good news for Milwaukee fans is that they should see plenty of offensive production from the home team in this one as well. Zack Greinke gets the start for the Astros and has struggled in his two most recent outings...particularly compared to his standards. Greinke has allowed 8 runs (7 earned) on 16 hits in 12.1 innings. After yesterday's 3-2 game that was a pitchers duel, look for both lineups to explode today. The Astros are one of the top slugging teams (3rd out of 30) in the majors when on the road. The Brewers have a respectable .450 slugging percentage in home games which ranks in the top half of the majors. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #953 Tuesday 10* Top Play Miami Marlins Money Line (+) @ Pittsburgh Pirates @ 7:05 ET - This is a contrarian play all the way but I love the situation. I am well aware of the fact that the Marlins currently have a club-record 15-game road losing streak in progress. However, they hold a huge pitching edge in this match-up, the Pirates are over-valued, and I love the big money line comeback return we are being offered here. Miami is off a road sweep but it came at the hands of the Nationals and their tough pitching staff. The Pirates are off a road series sweep where their bats were on fire but they played those games at Coors Field. Also, though Pittsburgh won their 3 most recent home games, this was preceded by an awful 3-15 stretch in home games for the Pirates. Considering the Pirates have Mitch Keller (8.62 ERA and .362 BAA), does this sound like a team that should be a -175 favorite against anybody? I say the answer to that is a definite no. I know I may be viewed as taking risk by playing the Marlins here but I know this team was off yesterday and is fully focused on ending their road losing streak and they have a huge pitching edge. Earlier this season Sandy Alcantara was only pitching well at home but now he also is pitching well on the road too. The young hurler is really starting to put it all together. In the month of August, Alcantara had a 3.03 ERA and held opponents to a .174 BAA. His month included 3 road starts against quality teams like the Mets and Braves plus a road start at hitter-friendly Coors Field. In those 3 outings he allowed only 9 hits in 19 innings! 10* MIAMI

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants @ 2:15 ET - Opponents are hitting .295 against Adam Wainwright this month. Also, he has walked 9 in his last 3 home starts even though he has only averaged 5 innings per start in those outings. The Giants enter this game having averaged scoring 6.4 runs per game in their past 9 road games. The Cardinals are coming off back to back double headers against the Reds as they had to play two both Saturday and Sunday. Of course that is not good for a bullpen. With Wainwright likely in line for another early exit that could spell trouble here. San Francisco also certainly has pitching concerns of their own here. The Giants start Tyler Beede and he has a 6.27 ERA and has been hit at a .298 clip this season. Look for the right-hander to get pounded here as he also has a 6.11 ERA and has been smashed at a .339 clip in day games this season. He'll get pounded here and Wainwright is not only struggling but also gave up 4 earned runs in his most recent start against the Giants (a year ago). San Francisco, as a road underdog of +150 to +200, is 13-6 to the over this season. The Cardinals are 6-1 to the over in their last 7 games against the Giants. More of the same on tap here. 10* OVER the total in St Louis

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #903 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (+) @ Cincinnati Reds @ 2:10 ET - When the first pitch leaves Anthony DeSclafani's hand in this one, the Reds will be beginning their 5th game in a span of 48 hours! It is an odd scheduling quirk but Cincinnati ended up playing a double-header at St Louis BOTH Saturday and Sunday. Now the Reds have an early game Monday which complicates matters for them. Sure the Phillies played last night too but at least they played only 1 game both Saturday and Sunday unlike the crazy schedule Cincinnati has endured over this Labor Day weekend. Overall, in looking at the Monday card this is the only game where you have a legitimate playoff contender that is a sizable dog against a team that is nearly eliminated from the playoff race. When you also factor in the scheduling situation here, this spot offers great line value on Philadelphia. The Reds have only faced Smyly for a total of THREE innings since 2013. The point is they have very little familiarity with him. The Phillies have seen much more of Anthony DeSclafani. Also, the Reds right-hander is off a great start but it came at Miami against a horrible Marlins team. In his first 3 starts in the month of August, DeSclafani allowed 13 earned runs in 14 and 1/3 innings. He has walked 3 batters in each of his last 3 home starts and went only 5 innings in each start. DeSclafani is being overvalued here and so are his Reds teammates. Cincinnati has averaged just 6 hits per game in their past 6 games and has had not more than 7 hits in ANY of those 6 games. The Phillies have averaged 11.5 hits per game in their past 6 games. 10* PHILADELPHIA 

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 3:10 ET - Steven Brault gets the start for the Pirates. The Pittsburgh southpaw managed to survive his most recent outing (against the floundering Phillies) despite not having his best stuff. However, when you come to Coors Field on a summer afternoon with low humidity and light winds and you don't have your best stuff you are likely to get pounded. That is what I am expecting here as the Rockies hitters bounce back after managing only 4 runs yesterday. As for the Pirates hitters, they should absolutely stay red hot here. Pittsburgh has won 7 of its last 9 games and a red hot lineup certainly has had something to do with that. In their past 6 wins, the Pirates have scored an average of 10 runs per game and there is certainly nothing average about that! They'll take advantage of facing Jeff Hoffman of Colorado in this one. The Rockies right-hander has a 6.31 ERA in his career and there has been no improvement this season. In his 9 starts this year Hoffman has gone 1-4 with a 7.81 ERA. In his career outings at Coors Field (he has thrown nearly 100 innings there), Hoffman has a 7.60 ERA. The way the Pirates are swinging the sticks this will be another tough outing for him here. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #965 Sunday 10* Top Play Oakland A's Money Line (+) @ New York Yankees @ 1:05 ET - Anyone who played the Yankees should realize they had one of the luckiest wins of the season. No, it wasn't just the fact that they tied it in the bottom of the 8th nor that it was a walk-off win in the 11th. The good fortune was that while the Yankees only left 3 men on base in an 11-inning game, the A's went a ridiculous 1 for 10 with runners in scoring position and left 15 men on base. Not only that, all 15 men on base were in the first 9 innings. It was a game Oakland should have won easily in "regulation time" and yet they couldn't get a clutch hit to save their lives. I love backing teams like this in their very next game when the pitching match-up is right and we have the ideal situation here. JA Happ is a weak link in the Yankees rotation. The left-hander had a rough August and, overall, he is having a bad season which includes a 6.70 ERA since the All Star break. He also got roughed up by Oakland when he most recently faced them. As for the A's, fighting hard for a playoff spot, they bring their "wild card" to the table in this one Sunday as now the long-awaited return of Sean Manaea is here. The southpaw went 12-9 with a 3.52 ERA and held opponents to a .232 batting average last season before he got hurt. Is he ready to come back? Yes! At AAA Las Vegas (and the PCL is a tough league to pitch in) he has dominated. Manaea 3-1 with a 3.21 ERA in his 5 rehab starts and held opponents to a paltry .165 batting average. I'll take the underdog off an unreal loss with the better pitcher on the mound every single time it comes up and that is precisely the situation we have here which is why I am elevating to my highest rating for this one. 10* OAKLAND

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 8:10 ET - Yesterday's game totaled 13 runs so it fell just short of going over the total. I like the value here with coming right back with the over after the Pirates stayed hot at the plate Friday but the Rockies scored just 4 runs. Colorado, on their home field, will bounce back today against Joe Musgrove. The Pirates right-hander is off a strong start but he is very inconsistent. He has been unable to string together back to back quality starts. As a result we have great value here with the over. The last 3 times Musgrove has allowed 2 or less earned runs in a start his next start has seen him allow a combined 18 earned runs in 13 and 1/3 innings. As for Tim Melville, the inexperienced right-hander has good numbers so far but his first start was on the road and was strong but he was very fortunate in his 2nd start. Melville did not pitch nearly as well as his 5 scoreless innings would lead you to believe. Keep in mind, this is still a pitcher that has a 6.41 ERA in his 8 games (5 starts) at the MLB level. The Pirates are 6-2 in their last 8 games and have scored an average of 8 runs per game in their past 7 games. Pittsburgh will light Melville up but, at the same time, Musgrove gets rocked by a fired up Rockies team that is off back to back home losses to the Bucs. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #906 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (+) vs New York Mets @ 4:05 ET - The Mets exploded late in yesterday's game for a huge win. However, New York entered this series having lost 6 straight games. The Phillies have shown a knack for bouncing back off a loss as they try to remain relevant in the playoff race as the season heads toward September. Philadelphia, since August 13th, has only lost back to back games once. As you can see, the odds favor a bounce back here. Also, the Phillies are a perfect 5-0 the last 5 times they were off a loss in which they allowed double digits in runs scored. I also like the fact that Jason Vargas will be going against his former team in this one. The former Met is off a tough start versus the Pirates but had previously allowed just 2 earned runs in each of his 3 home starts since coming to Philadelphia. You know the Phillies left-hander will be amped up to knock off his former team in a battle between two division rivals (and playoff hopefuls). Vargas should receive plenty of run support here as his teammates go up against Steven Matz. The Mets southpaw has found Citizens Bank Park to be a disaster zone for him! Matz has gotten crushed in 3 of his last 4 starts in Philly. He had one good start but in the other 3 (including each of the last 2), Matz has allowed 21 runs (17 earned) in only 6 and 1/3 innings! The Phillies bounce back after yesterday's embarrassing late innings loss and they blast Matz and the Mets here. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #917 Saturday 8* OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Oakland A's @ 1:05 ET - The Yankees Domingo German has solid numbers on the season but lets not forget his ERA was a 2.60 in late May. Since then, a span of about 3 months, German has a 5.13 ERA. Also, German will be facing an A's lineup that just saw him and roughed him up in Oakland. The Athletics have won 11 of their past 15 games and have scored an average of 6.4 runs per game during this stretch. The Yankees were held to just 2 runs in yesterday's loss but should bounce back here as they get another shot at Homer Bailey. The A's right-hander had surprising success against the Yankees last week in Oakland but he has a 6.71 ERA on the road this season! Bailey will be facing a New York team that was 11-2 in their 13 home games prior to yesterday's disappointing loss. The Yankees averaged 6.5 runs per game during that stretch and will bounce back at the plate in this one. Even with yesterday's game staying just under the total, the over is 8-2 in the Yankees last 10 home games. 8* OVER the total in New York Yankees

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #973 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners @ 8:05 ET - Perfect situation here. Not only did the game yesterday stay under the total but the last time Marco Gonzales faced the Rangers he had a strong start against them but that was in Seattle. Also, Kolby Allard is off a strong start for Texas but that was his first solid outing in 4 starts this season. The point is we're now getting value here because the above factors are part of the reason the markets moved this total down from an 11 to a 10.5 even though it should be going the other way. The Mariners Gonzales has allowed 24 hits in the 16 innings spanning his last 3 road starts. Unlike his home start against the Rangers, he'll get crushed now facing them in Texas where they are a different team at the plate. As for Allard, the former Brave got crushed for 7 runs (6 earned) in his lone home start this season and he also walked 6 in 10 innings in his two starts prior to that ugly outing against the Angels. In other words, he has had one good start but now the markets think he has "found his way" after finally having a good start. I completely disagree and am forecasting that the Mariners get to him early and often in this one. The over is 13-5 this season when Seattle is on the road when the money line is +125 to -125. The over is 3-1 in the 4 career starts Gonzales has made in Arlington. 10* OVER the total in Texas

Earliest Cash Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #967 Friday 8* OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros @ 7:05 ET - The Blue Jays have averaged scoring 5.7 runs per game in their past 14 home games. The Astros suffered a 9-8 loss yesterday but it was their 4th straight over as their lineup remains red hot. In fact, Houston has scored an average of 8.3 runs per game in their past 7 games. I know Wade Miley has great numbers for the Astros but he has a 4.67 ERA in his 6 career starts at Toronto. Also, the southpaw is showing some signs he could be wearing down. He is off a solid 5 inning start at home against the Angels but he allowed 10 runs (6 earned) on 19 hits in just 9 innings spanning his two prior starts. Speaking of wearing down, the Blue Jays Trent Thornton is 1-2 with a 6.90 ERA in his 7 starts since the All Star Break. 8* OVER the total in Toronto

No Doubt Blowout Rout - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #954 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs New York Mets @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies opened up in the -150 range but have dropped to the -130 range as of very early game day morning. This is offering great value to Philadelphia with their ace on the mound. I know that Zach Wheeler has had success in recent starts at Philadelphia but he is currently in poor current form. Not only did he allow 6 earned runs in just 5 innings when the Mets hosted the Phillies early last month, Wheeler enters this start with a 6.75 ERA in his last 3 starts. Conversely, the Phillies Aaron Nola continues his domination. The Phils right-hander is 6-3 with a 2.27 ERA in his last 13 starts. He has allowed 2 runs or less in 9 of his last 13 starts. He'll take advantage of facing a Mets team that has lost 6 straight games. While New York is 0-6 their last 6 games, the Phillies are 6-3 their last 9 home games. I know that in a key match-up with playoff implications it is enticing to the grab the dog here but this is a classic case of "hot versus not" as it relates to both the team match-up and the starting pitching match-up in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 8:40 ET - With this total set at a 14 it may scare away over players. However, as one digs deeper into this match-up, the fact is that 20 runs tonight would not be a surprise. The Rockies Chi Chi Gonzalez is 0-5 with a 6.43 ERA this season. He walked 6 in just 4 and 1/3 innings in his most recent start. Also, he has allowed 8 homers in his last 26 innings on the mound. Of course too many walks and too many homers is a dangerous combo and Gonzalez is likely to struggle again tonight on a hot late summer night in Colorado. The Pirates counter with Trevor Williams. The Pittsburgh right-hander got off to a decent start since this season with a respectable spring. However, it has been all downhill in the summer months for Williams. He has a 7.21 ERA since June 1st and pitching at hitter-friendly Coors Field is unlikely to help matters! Behind Williams is a Pirates bullpen that ranks as one of the worst in baseball. As for the Rockies bullpen, they have struggled at home (6.00 ERA) as you would expect. The over is 6-1 in Pittsburgh's last 7 road games. The over is 38-22 when the Pirates money line is +125 to -125. The over is 11-3 in Rockies Thursday games this season. The over is 8-1 in the last 9 starts made by Williams and this one, despite the high number posted, is destined to fly over the total as well. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Daytime Dominator RL Rout - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Thursday 10* Top Play Oakland A's Run Line -1.5 -125 @ Kansas City Royals @ 1:15 ET - The A's are off a 4-2 loss to the Royals yesterday. Look for an immediate bounce back Thursday. Kansas City entered that game having lost 23 of their past 30 games! Also, Oakland is a perfect 7-0 the last 7 times they have been off a loss by a margin of 3 runs or less. Of course the A's are a huge money line favorite here but we can get value and lay a much smaller price by taking Oakland on the run line in this one. The last 6 times the A's were off a loss by margin of 3 or less runs they have won their next game by a margin of 2 or more runs all 6 times! The Athletics Chris Bassitt is 7-2 with a 2.96 ERA in his 11 day game starts this season. The Royals Glenn Sparkman is 1-5 with a 5.87 ERA and a .314 BAA in his 8 day game appearances this season. The KC right-hander has been hit at a .314 clip in afternoon games. Look for a road rout in this one. The A's were 18-8 their last 26 prior to yesterday's loss. 12 of the Athletics last 15 wins have come by 2 or more runs and this one should as well. 10* OAKLAND Run Line -1.5 runs

Earliest Cash Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #911 Thursday 8* OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Indians @ 1:10 ET - This total has dropped from a 9 to as low as an 8. Yes, Mike Clevinger is on the mound for the Indians here but Cleveland might get to double digits in runs scored all by themselves in this one. Also, if Clevinger was to get tripped up it is more likely to happen on the road. While he has dominated at home this season, the Indians ace right-hander does have a 4.23 ERA away from home on the year. As for the Tigers Daniel Norris, he has pitched well in recent outings but they've all been short ones (3 innings) and the Detroit bullpen is one of the worst in the majors. Plus Norris has found the Tribe to be a bit of a nemesis for him. Additionally, Norris is 1-6 with a 5.29 ERA in home games this season and 3-7 with a 5.23 ERA in day games this season. The Indians, as a road favorite of -175 or more, are 7-3 to the over this season. The Tigers, as an underdog of +175 to +250, are 22-12 to the over this season. 8* OVER the total in Detroit

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #965 Wednesday 10* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins @ 8:10 ET - The Twins Jake Odorizzi has been great in day games this season but his night games have seen him compile an ERA that is 2.5 runs higher! Is it a fluke? Absolutely not, his ERA was about 2 runs higher in night games in 2018 and about a run higher in 2017. In other words, we're getting some extra value here since there is no real shading given to the total for that factor but there absolutely should be. This is particularly true because Odorizzi has been "on the fade" for awhile too as he compiled a 7.43 ERA in his 5 July starts. In his past two August starts, the Twins right-hander has allowed 7 runs (6 earned) in less than 11 innings of work and his most recent outing was against the White Sox. Now they get a quick "second look" at him and this time they face him in Chicago which is a big edge for them. Certainly the White Sox are going to need all the runs they can get here as their own starter tonight is likely to get rocked. Ross Detwiler is off a solid start in his most recent outing but that is rare. In his prior two appearances the southpaw got hammered for 8 earned runs in less than 8 innings of work. Detwiler is getting hit at a .302 clip this season and this will be the fourth time since late June that he is facing the Twins. This is a big edge for the Minnesota lineup. In terms of the weather this evening, a west wind is expected and will be blowing out toward left field for this one. Even including last night's low-scoring win, Twins games are on a 23-11 run to the over. Look for that trend to resume here. 10* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox

ACTION on this wager - make the bet without listing starting pitchers: No Doubt Blowout Rout - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #954 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 6:05 ET - The Phillies are being undervalued here as home field certainly carries some importance in this match-up. Despite the disappointment of last night's loss on an error on what would have been an inning-ending double play in the top of the 9th, the Phillies are certainly not out of the post-season race. Former Pirates Dickerson and Rodriguez played key roles in rallying for the win in Monday's game and they'll help lead a bounce back Wednesday as well after Tuesday's disappointment. As for Pittsburgh, this is a team that is 20 games below .500 on the season and dead last in the National League Central. When you look at this match-up from that standpoint, a lot of line value is being offered to the Phillies as a rather short home favorite here. Pittsburgh is coming off a successful series at home against the Reds this past weekend but, even with a rare road win Tuesday, the Pirates are still a horrible 5-17 in their past 22 road games! Philadelphia is back home where they had won 9 of their past 14 games at Citizens Bank Park prior to last night's loss on a missed catch error. The Phillies are 36-22 this season as a home favorite of -110 or higher. Philadelphia's Vince Velasquez is fired up and ready to bounce back after he allowed a 7-0 lead to get away at Miami in his most recent start. He'll make up for that here and opponents are hitting only .231 against him at home this season (and also only hit .232 against him last season at home). The Pirates Mitch Keller is a rookie and off the best start of his young career. However, that was at home and Keller has been hit at a .400 clip in road games this season while compiling a 9.75 ERA in those 3 starts. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 Tuesday 10* Top Play Minnesota Twins Money Line (-) @ Chicago White Sox @ 8:10 ET - Chicago's Lucas Giolito has had an amazing season but Minnesota, as well as starting pitcher Michael Pineda, are clearly being undervalued in this spot. The ability to grab the superior team as well as a solid starting pitcher in a revenge situation for a very small money line price is something I won't pass up on. The Twins got shut down in a loss to Giolito and the White Sox on Wednesday. Also, Pineda was not happy about allowing 4 earned runs to Chicago on Tuesday although the Twins did get the win in that one and Pineda is now 3-0 with a 3.15 ERA in his 3 starts against the White Sox this season. As for Giolito, he dominated the Twins in a shutout win at Minnesota Wednesday. However, his prior start against the Twins was in Chicago (just like tonight's match-up) and he allowed 7 earned runs in 5 innings. Giolito was rocked for 4 homers in that start and Minnesota is ready for revenge after getting dominated by Giolito last week. Gioltio went the distance in that shutout and that is noteworthy as the last two times he has pitched more than 6 innings in a start he has been rocked in his next start. Those two tough outings in this same situation saw him allow 10 earned runs in 11 innings of work. More of the same expected here. The Twins are 17-4 this season on the road with a money line of -100 to -150. The White Sox are 1-12 this season after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games. 10* MINNESOTA

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Indians @ 7:10 ET - The Indians Adam Plutko has great numbers at home this season but the road has been a different story. In his 7 appearances (6 starts) away from home this season, Plutko has a 4.93 ERA and opponents are hitting .296 against him. The Tigers Spencer Turnbull is 0-7 in his dozen home starts this season and he also is fading as the season goes on. In his 6 starts since the All Star break, Turnbull is 0-4 with a 6.58 ERA. The over is 3-0 in Plutko's 3 career starts against the Tigers and the Indians have provided him with plenty of run support (average of 11 runs per game) in those 3 outings. Detroit's bullpen has a 5.02 ERA to rank among the worst in the majors and they could be called upon early in this one. Not only is Turnbull struggling, the Tigers are also concerned about his total innings on the year compared to what he has amassed in past seasons. That said, look for runs early often and throughout this one! Detroit is 25-12 to the over (including 11-3 this season) when they enter a game after 7 or more consecutive road games. The Tigers are in that situation here as they enter this series off a long road trip. Detroit was off yesterday and now the Tigers over moves to 5-0 in their last 5 games as their match-up with Cleveland should be a slug-fest on Tuesday. 10* OVER the total in Detroit

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #902 Tuesday 8* Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies are being undervalued here as home field certainly carries some importance in this match-up. Despite the disappointment of the weekend series at Miami, the Phillies are certainly not out of the post-season race and they got back on track with last night's exciting 11-inning win that featured a 3 run bottom of the 8th. Former Pirates Dickerson and Rodriguez played key roles in rallying for the win. As for Pittsburgh, this is a team that is 21 games below .500 on the season and dead last in the National League Central. When you look at this match-up from that standpoint, a lot of line value is being offered to the Phillies as a rather short home favorite here. Pittsburgh is coming off a successful series at home against the Reds this past weekend but, with the loss Monday, the Pirates are now a horrible 4-17 in their past 21 road games! Philadelphia is back home where they have won 9 of their past 14 games at Citizens Bank Park. Pittsburgh is 12-23 this season in games against southpaw starters. The Phillies are 36-21 this season as a home favorite of -110 or higher. Philadelphia's Drew Smyly dominated the Pirates at Pittsburgh in his first start after coming to Philly in mid-July. The Pirates Steven Brault has been hit at a .286 clip in road games this season. Also, Brault has been hit much harder by rigtht-handed bats than lefties throughout his career. The Phils lineup will be loaded with right-handed sticks and one of the few left-handed bats will be that of Bryce Harper - .548 slugging percentage against southpaws this season. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs Oakland A's @ 8:15 ET - After opening up at a 10, this total has fallen to a 9 as of very early Monday morning. In typical contrarian fashion I am fading the line move and going with the over in this match-up. Homer Bailey is going against his former team as he was with the Royals earlier this season. Sure he'll be highly motivated here as a result but don't be surprised if he struggles. Bailey has never been known as a pitcher that excels in pressure situations and he'll be putting extra pressure on himself to try and perform well here since he is facing his former team. Bailey's most recent road start but was a beauty but those are rare gems indeed. In fact, Bailey's 3 prior road starts saw him allow 21 earned runs in just 11 and 2/3 innings. Brad Keller gets the start for the Royals here. The KC right-hander is off a strong start (albeit against the miserable Orioles) but did compile a 6.00 ERA over his two preceding starts. Also, Keller is facing an A's team that has scored an average of 5.4 runs per game in its past 10 games. The Royals had not been hitting well of late but, after exploding for 9 runs in a big upset win at Cleveland yesterday, KC brings some momentum into this home series with the A's. Kansas City is looking to continue to play the role of spoiler as they face another team, just like the Indians, that is in the battle for a wild card spot in the playoff race. The over is 20-12 this season when the A's are a favorite of -150 or more. The Royals, at home when the total is 10 to 10.5, are 13-3 to the over this season. Again, 10 was the opening number on this total but, of course, I like this spot even more now that the total has dropped to a 9. Lets not forget the Royals bullpen is also a weakness. There are some storms expected in the KC area late this afternoon and early this evening but those should push through prior to game time for this one. 10* OVER the total in Kansas City

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #954 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies are being undervalued here as home field certainly carries some importance in this match-up. Jason Vargas has made 3 home starts since coming to Philadelphia and he has allowed just 2 earned runs in each of those 3 home starts. Also, despite the disappointment of the weekend series at Miami, the Phillies are certainly not out of the post-season race. Conversely, the Pirates are a team that is 20 games below .500 on the season and dead last in the National League Central. When you look at this match-up from that standpoint, a lot of line value is being offered to the Phillies as a rather short home favorite here. Pittsburgh is coming off a successful series at home against the Reds this past weekend but the Pirates are a horrible 4-16 in their past 20 road games! Philadelphia is back home where they did lose their past two games but that was preceded by an 8-3 run at home in their prior 11 games at Citizens Bank Park. Look for Vargas to come up big with another solid home start while he gets plenty of run support as his Phillies teammates get to Joe Musgrove early and often. The Pirates right-hander is 0-3 with a 7.71 ERA in the month of August. Pittsburgh is 7-20 this season in games on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 runs. The Phillies are 35-21 this season as a home favorite of -110 or higher. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #927 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Diego Padres vs Boston Red Sox @ 4:10 ET - The Red Sox possess a very potent lineup. Though they haven't seen Joey Lucchesi they are fully capable of enjoying success against him right out of the gate. Boston, off a 5-4 win yesterday, has averaged 6.7 runs per game their past 13 games. The Padres have struggled to score runs so far in this series but did manage 4 in yesterday's loss. However, San Diego did enter this series having averaged 6 runs per game in their past 11 games. Look for the Padres to resume that type of success in this game as they take advantage of facing Boston's Brian Johnson. The Red Sox southpaw has a 6.58 ERA this season in his 11 appearances (6 starts) and Johnson has been absolutely rocked as opponents are hitting .353 against him on the year. This will open up the floodgates early for the Padres lineup but look for the Red Sox lineup to match them run for run and turn this one into a surprising high-scoring game at Petco Park. The over is 10-1-1 in the Padres last dozen home games. The over is 13-6 this season when Boston enters a game having won 6 or 7 of their past 8 games. 10* OVER the total in San Diego

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Kansas City Royals @ 1:10 ET - The Indians Shane Bieber has allowed a pair of home runs in each of his past three outings. Kansas City has hit Bieber quite well this season including getting to him for 5 earned runs in less than 6 innings of work in their most recent match-up last month. The Royals start Erik Skoglund in this one. The KC southpaw is 2-8 with a 6.03 ERA in his MLB career. This will be his first appearance in the majors this season. At the minor league level this season Skoglund is 3-5 with a 6.04 ERA and opponents hit .315 against him. You can see why I am expecting plenty of success for the Tribe at the plate in this one. The trends for these teams in recent games don't support a play on the over in this one but that is also helping to keep this total lower than it should be. The Royals success against Bieber (and his recent long ball trouble) continues here while, at the same time, Skoglund and a beleaguered Royals bullpen gets rocked. 8* OVER the total in Cleveland

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 runs (-120) @ Miami Marlins @ 1:10 ET - The Phillies have one of the worst managers in MLB. That was on full display Friday when Gabe Kabler completely mismanaged the game and the Phillies blew a 7-0 lead against the worst hitting team in baseball. The good news here for Phillies fans is that Philadelphia is still playing the Marlins and, with Aaron Nola on the mound, it becomes much more difficult for Kapler to give away games. Nola should do his thing here (pitch deep into the game and dominate) and, at the same time, the Phillies should give him plenty of run support as a result of facing Elieser Hernandez. The Marlins right-hander has a 6.46 ERA in his last 3 appearances and he has given up 4 or more earned runs in 3 of those outings. Philly will be facing Hernandez for the 3rd time in the past 2 months which also is an edge to the hitters. As for Nola, he has a 2.48 ERA in the past two months and has gone 6-1 in those 10 starts. The Phillies are 17-6 in his last 23 starts including 8-2 in his last 10 road starts. Of course this is why Philly is about a 2 to 1 favorite on the money line but I love the value with Philadelphia in the -120 price range on the run line. 12 of the Phillies last 14 wins have come by a margin of 2 or more runs. 18 of the Marlins last 23 losses have come by a margin of 2 or more runs. Lay it! 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 runs

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #975 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees @ 4:05 ET - The Yankees CC Sabathia is 1-5 with a 6.95 ERA in his 9 road starts this season. After getting destroyed 10-2 yesterday, the Dodgers will be ready to respond today and they'll take it out on Sabathia this afternoon. The issue for LA however will be their starter Tony Gonsolin. The rookie right-hander barely survived his 4-inning outing versus the Braves as he lasted only 4 innings and gave up 5 hits to the Braves but managed to get around the traffic. The Yankees have averaged 6 runs per game in their past dozen games. The Dodgers had won 13 of their past 17 games prior to yesterday's ugly loss. In those 17 games Los Angeles has averaged scoring 6.4 runs per game. The over is 6-2 this season when the Dodgers enter a game after scoring 4 runs or less 3 straight games. Also, the over is 6-3 in LA games versus AL East opponents this season. The over is 17-8 in Yankees games when they are an underdog. Also, the over is 13-6 this season when New York enters a game after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. A lot of potency in both of these lineups and I feel neither starting pitcher can be trusted. 10* OVER the total Los Angeles Dodgers

RL Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 runs @ Miami @ 7:10 ET - The Phillies have plenty of momentum after their sweep of their short two-game set in Boston earlier this week. Philadelphia has now won 6 of their past 8 games and they were off yesterday and hold a big edge over the Marlins on Friday. While Philly is still very much alive in the Wild Card race, the Marlins have lost 9 of their past 10 games (and 14 of their last 18) after losing again at Atlanta last night. Miami enters this game with no rest and struggling while the Phillies come in rested and confident. The Phils also rare a big pitching edge in this match-up. Of course all of the above is the reason why the Phillies are favored in the -180 range on the money line in this one. That said, the value here is with the run line where Philadelphia is available at a pick'em price if you lay the -1.5 runs. That is the way to go as the Marlins Hector Noesi keeps giving up too many homers and is 0-3 with a 9.39 ERA. As for the Phillies Vince Velasquez, he struggled at Miami in late June but that was just his 2nd poor start against the Marlins in his last 8 outings. Velasquez generally has fared very well against Miami and he enters this outing on an overall run that has seen him allow 3 earned runs or less in 5 straight starts! Also, the Phillies bullpen is well-rested after off days Monday and Thursday and they performed very well in the Red Sox series. The Marlins bullpen has a 5.13 ERA which ranks them as one of the worst in the majors. 10* PHILADELPHIA Run Line -1.5 runs

Contrarian Crusher Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:10 ET - Zach Plesac has struggled in back to back starts. The Royals are facing him for the 4th time since July 4th so they have plenty of familiarity with him. Speaking of familiarity, the Indians are facing Jakob Junis for the 6th time already this season! Junis has gone 1-3 with a 6.52 ERA against the Tribe and they are hitting .304 against him. Suffice to say, this is not a good match-up for the Royals right-hander. After getting shutout by a quality pitcher last night, Cleveland will respond by taking out their frustration on a Kansas City pitcher they have dominated in recent meetings. In fact, the Indians have gotten to Junis for 4 earned runs or more in 4 of his 5 starts against them this season! We've got a very manageable total (9 runs) to work with here and behind Junis is a Royals bullpen that ranks as one of the worst in the majors. The over is 4-2 in Junis last 6 starts against the Indians. The over is 2-1 in the 3 career starts Plesac has made against the Royals. The last two games of the Indians series with the Mets resulted in unders but the over had been on a 7-2 run in Cleveland games prior to that. In terms of looking for overs I like looking for games where a home team pitcher has been struggling. Plesac's struggles likely to continue here and, at he same time, you know the Indians are highly likely to continue pounding Junis as they have throughout this season. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #959 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 7:05 ET - I got burned yesterday with the Orioles over as it was 8-1 through 6 innings but did not go over the total. I won't hesitate to come right back with the over in Baltimore today but this time the Orioles are hosting Tampa Bay. The Rays are known for having a strong bullpen but they have not fared well of late. That is part of the reason the over is now 4-0 in Tampa's last 4 games. I look for this over streak to continue here. The Rays Ryan Yarbrough is off back to back strong starts but his prior two outings were against teams that have faced him often this season (Toronto and Boston) and Yarbrough struggled in those appearances. Now he faces an Orioles team that also will be seeing him for the 3rd time this season. Additionally, I like the way that Baltimore has been swinging the bats of late as they have scored an average of 6 runs per game in their past 4 games. They'll enjoy some success against Yarbrough and a Rays pen that is having some struggles of late. As for the Orioles pen, their 6.10 ERA is the worst in the majors and that could be an issue here as Asher Wojciechowski gets the start for Baltimore. The Orioles right-hander has a great July but reality has set in now that August has arrived. This month he has a 1.74 WHIP as he has struggled at times with command. Also, when Wojciechowski has found the plate he has given up some big hits. He has allowed 7 homers in his 19 innings this month. The right-hander also will be facing the Rays for 3rd time (2nd start) this season so they have some familiarity with him. Look for the struggles of Wojciechowski to continue here while the Rays continue to allow a surprising amount of runs as well (7.3 per game last 3 games). 10* OVER the total in Baltimore

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #917 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels @ 7:05 ET - This total opened up as high as an 11.5 but has dropped to a 10.5 as of early game day morning. In typical contrarian fashion I am fading the line move. These teams totaled 15 runs in the first game of this series on Monday. They then played a double header yesterday and neither game totaled more than 6 runs. However, it has been a parade of left-handed starters, for the most part, in this series and this is another all-lefty match-up Wednesday. That doesn't bode well for the two starters here. I know that Minor has been pitching well and also has had good recent success against the Angels. However, Los Angeles had scored an average of 6.5 runs per game in their 10 games prior to yesterday's low scoring double-header split. Keep in mind these two teams already have played 3 games in two days and two of those games were decided in the bottom of the 11th inning. Some extra bullpen has been used up as a result. Patrick Sandoval gets the start for the Angels in this one and none of his 3 appearances in the majors have lasted more than 5 innings. Also, he has particularly struggled in the past two. More of the same expected here. The Angels were on an 8-0 run to the over before each of yesterday's games stayed under the total. Look for "normalcy" to return today in a high-scoring slug-fest at hitter-friendly Globe Life Park in Arlington. 8* OVER the total in Texas

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #919 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:05 ET - On the one hand, these are two of the worst hitting teams in MLB and each of the first two games of this series have remained under the total. However, on the other hand, these are two of the worst bullpens in MLB and that becomes a factor when two starting pitchers - each likely to struggle - are taking the mound. The Royals start Mike Montgomery. The KC southpaw, in 15 appearances (3 starts) on the road this season, has compiled a 1-3 record with a 7.16 ERA. Opponents are hitting a ridiculous .353 against Montgomery in his 15 outings away from home this season. As for the Orioles starter, a struggling Aaron Brooks gets the start in this one. Since coming over from Oakland, Brooks' experience in Baltimore has been nothing short of a disaster. The Orioles right-hander is 0-4 with a 9.22 ERA in his 7 starts and opponents are hitting .345 against him! Prior to yesterday's low-scoring game, the last 7 games between these teams had totaled an average of 12.3 runs per contest. I see every reason to believe this one gets to at least a dozen runs as well. That said, I also like the added value here as the very first numbers that popped up on this one had the total at an 11 but the market makers quickly moved the total down to a 10.5 and I am grabbing the additional value. The last 23 times that the Royals have been a road favorite of -110 or more, only 7 of the 23 (30%) resulted in an under. Prior this series, the over was on a 16-5-2 run in Orioles games! Look for things to return to "normal" Wednesday. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore

Rickenbach MLB Rotation #969 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox @ 8:10 ET - No team had more hits (15) than the Twins last night and yet Minnesota scored only 4 runs. It was a result of some double plays and some wasted opportunities as the Twins left 10 men on base. To put this in proper perspective, the Nationals also had 15 hits last night and they scored 13 runs. The Rangers had 14 hits lead to 8 runs and the Angels had 13 hits lead to 7 runs. The fact is that crazy results happen sometimes and now I look for the Twins bats to stay hot tonight but this time the runs are commensurate with the hits. Minnesota will take advantage of facing Reynaldo Lopez. The White Sox right-hander gave up 5 earned runs in 5 and 1/3 innings at Anaheim in his most recent start. He has a 5.57 ERA on the road this season and opponents are hitting nearly .300 against Lopez away from home. Also, he got rocked for 8 earned runs in less than 4 innings in his lone appearance against Minnesota earlier this season. The Twins are starting Michael Pineda here. I am well aware that he has been solid this season but he is still recovering from a triceps strain. In his first start back he tired early and started to get hit harder. Also, the White Sox will be seeing him for the 3rd time in a span of less than 2 months. Familiarity for hitters with a pitcher in a short period of time generally leads to more success with each successive start. Pineda has been hit at a .270 clip in night games this season and it is no fluke as he has been hit at clips of .290, .273, .288 in night games his 3 prior seasons. He is much better in day action. The first total that popped up on this game was over 10 -120 and now the total is available at 9.5 and plus money on the over. This is a great value in a game which should see the hitters enjoying plenty of success. Also, 2 righties on the mounds means some extra left-handed lumber at the plate and the wind is expected to be blowing out toward right field tonight. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota

Rickenbach MLB Rotation #977 Tuesday MLB 8* Cleveland Indians Run Line -1.5 runs (+) @ New York Mets @ 7:10 ET - While it is true that the Mets have been a hot team - just like the Indians - as they make a playoff push, the fact is that New York also benefited from a favorable schedule that featured a lot of weak and / or struggling foes. The Mets now face a red hot pitcher and a red hot team and I look for the Indians to prevail in a big way on the road. I don't like laying juice, even in the 150 or 160 range, so I am opting for the run line here. Note that 42 of the Mets 60 losses - 70% - have come by 2 or more runs. The Indians have seen 61 of their 74 wins - 82.4% - come by 2 or more runs. This is why I am comfortable laying the 1.5 runs here and that is available for a plus money return as of early game day morning. Cleveland's Shane Bieber has been dominant while the Mets Steven Matz remains inconsistent. Bieber has a 1.89 ERA in his last 5 starts and continues piling up the strikeouts. Matz is off a rare good start against a quality team as he surprisingly pitched well against the Braves in his most recent outing. Prior to this, Matz had one very impressive start against the Pirates since returning to the rotation after the All Star break. In his other 4 starts since the All Star break, Matz allowed 24 hits in 20 and 1/3 innings! Comparatively, Bieber has allowed 2 or less earned runs in 5 straight starts and he faced much tougher opponents than Matz did. His starts included facing the Angels respectable lineup plus the Red Sox, Twins, and Astros! Look for Bieber to outpitch Matz by a wide margin in this one. 8* CLEVELAND Run Line -1.5 runs

Rickenbach MLB Rotation #975 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) @ Boston Red Sox @ 7:10 ET - This is a money line play I would suggest betting with "action" rather than listed pitchers. The reason I say that is because there is a 99% chance Aaron Nola starts for the Phillies but the Red Sox could change their mind about Brian Johnson. While it may seem surprising to see the Phillies as the slight favorite on the road at Fenway Park in this one, note that Boston is only a .500 team at home this season. Also, Philadelphia is 8-5 in interleague games this season while the Red Sox have gone 3-5 in interleague games. Additionally, the Phillies are a fantastic 11-4 this season when playing after a day off and they have their staff ace Aaron Nola on the mound. Nola is 5-2 with a 2.09 ERA in his last 11 starts. In 8 of those 11 starts he has allowed earned runs of just 1 or 0. Boston's Johnson has gotten rocked at .350 clip by opposing hitters this season and that means he is lucky he has "only" a 6.45 ERA in his 10 appearances (5 starts) this season. The bullpens are roughly equal here so I like the big starting pitching edge the Phillies have here as well as the other factors noted above. Still concerned about fading Boston here? Note that the Red Sox are 3-10 this season at home when the money line is +125 to -125. Road rout expected here as the Phillies get a much needed win and improve to 9-2 in Nola's last 11 starts overall and also 8-2 in his last 10 road starts. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Monday MLB 10* Top Play Milwaukee Brewers Money Line (+) @ St Louis Cardinals @ 7:45 ET - Since the All Star break the Cardinals have a .390 slugging percentage which ranks them dead last out of all 30 teams. The Brewers, on the other hand, have a solid .275 batting average since the All Star break which ranks them in the top ten of the majors. That said, I like the road dog to outhit the home fave in this key divisional showdown. St Louis is starting Dakota Hudson. Though the right-hander is off a solid start he had struggled in each of his 3 prior outings and I expect things to quickly return to normal for Hudson after a rare strong start versus the Royals. Note that Hudson is getting hit at a .284 clip in home games this season and a .288 clip in night games. The Brewers Zach Davies had some poor recent numbers but I attribute that to health. Now, making his first start in a couple weeks after resting up on the injured list, Davies will pitch much better tonight. The Milwaukee right-hander has excelled on the road (2.97 ERA) and in night games (2.67 ERA) this season. I expect more of the same on Monday evening. Also, this is a bit of a high-pressure game considering how tight the playoff race is. That said, it is certainly noteworthy that Davies is in his 5th MLB season while Hudson is in just his 2nd MLB season and also his very first season as a starter. Grab the road dog in this one! 10* MILWAUKEE

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #909 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:05 ET - The Orioles gave up 13 runs in yesterday's game and have the worst bullpen in the majors. The Royals gave up 11 runs in yesterday's game and their bullpen is not much better that Baltimore's. The KC bullpen ranks among the worst in the majors for opponents batting average as well as team ERA. The O's did put 7 runs on the board yesterday and Kansas City did score 5 runs. That said, I look for a lot of offense again today considering the above as well as the starting pitching match-up in this one. Baltimore is starting John Means and he has allowed 13 earned runs in just 10 and 2/3 innings spanning his past 3 starts. The Orioles southpaw was unable to make it out of the 4th inning in any of those starts. That said, the horrible Baltimore bullpen could be called upon early in this one. The Royals bullpen also could enter the Monday game early as well. Kansas City is starting Jorge Lopez and the right-hander is 1-7 with a 6.82 ERA on the season. He has been particularly poor as a starter. In the starting role this season Lopez is 0-6 with a 7.59 ERA in his 11 starts this season. Only 3 of his 11 starts this season have resulted in an under. Speaking of trending toward higher scoring games, the over is 7-1 in the last 8 starts Means has made. You can see why I am fully expecting a slugfest in this one. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #959 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Miami Marlins @ 3:10 ET - Hot afternoon at hitter-friendly Coors Field Sunday. Yesterday's game totaled 15 runs and this afternoon's match-up should match that at a bare minimum. Note that the Marlins Jordan Yamamoto is 0-4 with an 8.28 ERA in his last five starts. Fellow rookie, Rockies right-hander Peter Lambert has struggled all season and this has been particularly true in his day game outings. Colorado's Lambert has made 5 day game starts and he has been hit at a .340 clip in this outings while compiling a 9.00 ERA. The Marlins have had just 2 unders in their past 17 games. Since July 31st, Miami is 12-2-3 to the over. The Marlins beleaguered bullpen continues to struggle and they're likely to be called upon early in this one considering the recent struggles of Yamamoto. As for the Rockies, they have one of the worst home bullpen ERA marks in the majors. Lambert averages only 5 innings per start so the Colorado bullpen will have plenty of bearing on the outcome of this total as well. Rockies games have had just 3 unders in their last 11 games. The over is 12-2 this season when the Rockies are a home favorite of -150 or more. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #952 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (+) vs San Diego Padres @ 1:05 ET - The Phillies were a -130 money line favorite when lines were first being posted on this game. Now they are nearly a +110 dog as the bettors are loving the Padres here. They can have San Diego is what I say as the Padres are a miserable 9-17 this season against left-handed starters. Also, SDG is 0-6 in Joey Lucchesi's 6 starts since the All Star break. This is a battle of southpaws and Philadelphia's Jason Vargas has allowed just 2 earned runs in each of his two home starts since coming to the Phillies. Also, the Padres Lucchesi has seen his fastball velocity tick downward recently. The Phillies had won 4 straight games - and scored an average of 7.5 runs in those 4 victories - prior to yesterday's loss. The Padres, prior to yesterday's win, had lost 4 of their past 5 games and averaged scoring just 4 runs per game in those 4 defeats. Overall, San Diego is on a 15-25 run their past 40 games. The Phillies are 11-3 this season in home games with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs. I love fading line moves - not blindly but where it is supported by logic - when the favorite flip flops because of the markets and becomes an underdog. Grab the home dog in this one! 10* PHILADELPHIA

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #923 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:10 ET - Yesterday's game stayed under the total despite the Red Sox scoring 8 runs. Look for another big game from the Boston bats Saturday but the difference in this one will be the fact that Baltimore will join the party! The Orioles should enjoy success against Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez. Although the Red Sox southpaw has enjoyed success against Baltimore this season, this will be the 3rd time that the Orioles are seeing him and I expect the 3rd time to be the charm. Why would that be? Well, the fact is that Rodriguez is having a rough August. He has been hit at a .310 clip this month and has a 5.60 ERA while walking a dozen in just 3 starts. Another struggling hurler in this one is Asher Wojciechowski. The Orioles right-hander is 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA in his 3 starts this month. Also, he has allowed 2 homers per outing this month and also has walked 3 batters in each of his 3 starts! Though he shut down the Red Sox in his first start this season, he is not in good current form and now faces a powerful Boston team in the venue where they thrive - Fenway Park. As for the Orioles hitters, prior to yesterday's poor effort, the team had scored an average of 6 runs per game in their last 5 games overall. In terms of run scoring on the road, Baltimore had scored an average of 6 runs per games their last 10 games prior to being held to 1 run yesterday. As for the Red Sox offense, as per usual, they've been on a hot tear at Fenway Park. Boston has scored an average of 6.7 runs per game in their past 30 home games. The over is 21-9 in those 30 games at Fenway Park and all signs point to the over trend resuming here after yesterday's rare under. The Orioles bullpen has a 6.09 ERA which ranks them dead last in the majors. The over is 12-3-2 in Baltimore's last 17 games. You read that right. The Orioles have had just 3 unders in their last 17 games. 10* OVER the total in Boston

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #969 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:10 ET - The Orioles start former A's pitcher Aaron Brooks in this one. Since coming to Baltimore from Oakland, Brooks is 0-3 with a 9.41 ERA in his 6 starts. Brooks got absolutely throttled by the Astros in his most recent start. The Orioles right-hander will be opposed by another struggling right-hander in this one. Rick Porcello gets the start for Boston in this one. The Red Sox right-hander, since the All-Star Break, has been hit at a .297 clip while compiling a 6.97 ERA in his 6 starts. Porcello has allowed 13 homers in just 39 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 8 starts. When you're allowing an average of 1 homer every 3 innings plus getting hit at a .300 clip, it does not take long to find yourself in trouble. Porcello is facing an Orioles team that has scored an average of 6 runs per game in their last 5 games overall. In terms of run scoring on the road, Baltimore has scored an average of 6 runs per games their last 10 games. As for the Red Sox offense, as per usual, they've been on a hot tear at Fenway Park. Boston has scored an average of 6.7 runs per game in their past 29 home games. The over is 21-8 in those 29 games at Fenway Park and all signs point to the over trend continuing here. The Orioles bullpen has a 6.04 ERA which ranks them dead last in the majors. The over is 12-2-2 in Baltimore's last 16 games. You read that right. The Orioles have had just 2 unders in their last 16 games. 10* OVER the total in Boston

UPDATE: The Twins are now expected to use Michael Pineda as a starter in this one. The right-hander is coming off the injury list (Triceps) and will make his first start in two weeks. He is 1-4 with a 5.05 ERA in his career starts against Texas. I like this total whether Pineda or Smeltzer gets the start.  Pineda entered this season with a 5.16 ERA and a .287 batting average in road games since the start of the 2016 season. He is known for struggling more on the road and he is getting hit 20 points higher this season on the road compared to at home. Also, Pineda's road starts this summer (since June 1st) have all come against bad teams or weak-hitting teams. Facing the Rangers at Texas is going to be the toughest challenge he has faced in a long time. I look for plenty of runs from the Rangers whether Pineda or Smeltzer is on the hill. ORIGINAL: Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins @ 8:05 ET - The Rangers got their sticks going in a 7-3 win at Toronto early yesterday afternoon. Now Texas is back home where they generally thrive at the plate. I know this is a big total we're working with here but this game has "slug fest" written all "over" it. The Twins Devin Smeltzer is coming off of a start where he allowed 6 earned runs in 4 and 1/3 innings. That was at home. Note that in the rookie's only road start this season he also got rocked as Smeltzer allowed 5 earned runs in 6 and 1/3 innings. The Minnesota left-hander allowed 4 homers in that start! Again, slug fest is expected here for a number of reasons as you can see and here is another one: Pedro Payano is starting for the Rangers. Like Smeltzer, he is also a rookie. Payano's ERA makes it look like he is adjusting to MLB opposition better than he truly is. Pavano's 3.86 ERA belies the fact that he has a 1.71 WHIP! That WHIP means for every 3 innings he pitches he allows 5 baserunners! Eventually that will catch up with him and he is facing a dangerous Twins lineup here. Minnesota has a .514 slugging percentage in road games this season. That ranks them #1 out of all 30 teams in the majors! Texas has a solid .472 slugging percentage in home games this season and that ranks them in the top third of the majors! The Rangers will get their runs at home in this one but Payano is likely to get rocked. Also, the Texas bullpen ranks as one of the worst in the majors. Payano has nearly as many walks as strikeouts and Smeltzer makes just the 2nd road start of his career. It will be a hot and steamy night in Arlington and this park is known as a hitters paradise when conditions are like this. 10* OVER the total in Texas

NL Game of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #956 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies won the first game of this series to improve to 35-26 in home games this season while dropping the Cubs to a poor 23-36 in road games this season. If you had just played the home team in all of Chicago's games this season you'd be sitting high and mighty with a 77-42 record! The fact is that home field is not being given enough respect in this match-up Wednesday night. Sure Cole Hamels would like to win in his return to Philly but Philadelphia staff ace Aaron Nola is on the mound in this one. When Hamels has struggled this season it has been on the road and that was the case again in his most recent start. Hamels was rocked for 5 runs (4 earned) in just 3 innings at Cincinnati. In road outings compared to home Hamels is being hit 49 points higher. In night games compared to day action Hamels is being hit 66 points higher! As for Nola, since he got hot after some rough sledding earlier this season, he almost always comes up big at home! The few times Nola has been tripped up in recent months have almost always been on the road. In fact, Nola has allowed 1 earned run or less in 8 of his last 12 starts! The Phillies lost Nola's most recent start (at SF) but they entered that one having gone 7-1 in his last 8 starts! The Phillies are 37-22 this season when the money line is -100 to -150. The Cubs are 7-19 this season as a road underdog of +100 or higher. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #951 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks @ 3:10 ET - The first game in this series got to 14 runs (the posted total in most spots on Monday) by the top of the 7th inning but then the run-scoring died out. Then the second of this series had a great early start with plenty of runs from Arizona but Colorado left 12 men on base for the game and went 2 for 12 with runners in scoring position. That is how you can have a series so far that has miraculously seen neither of the first two games go over the closing number even though BOTH should have. As a result, I have no hesitation in stepping in here and pounding the over in the 3rd and final game of this series. It will be a hot afternoon at Coors Field and the ball will carry even better than usual given the conditions. As for the pitching match-up, Kyle Freeland is 3-10 with a 7.06 ERA on the season. That is part of the reason he was sent to the minors during the season as well. That move really hasn't change anything however. Freeland has gone 1-4 with a 6.91 ERA since his return from the minors. As for Robbie Ray, he has found Coors Field to be a nightmare of sorts in recent seasons. Since the start of the 2016 season, Ray has allowed 23 runs (15 earned) in 24 and 2/3 innings. Yes that means the Rockies score about a run for every inning they have faced Ray in his last 4 starts at Coors Field. Overall, from 2016 to 2018 Ray compiled a 7.19 ERA in his 9 starts against the Rockies. The Dbacks bullpen has a 4.44 ERA on the road this season and the Colorado bullpen has a 6.28 ERA in home games this season. Arizona has averaged 9 runs per game in their last 3 road games at Coors Field and you know what the Rockies are capable of here. Look for this one to finally be the slugfest that does NOT stop on Wednesday! 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Earliest Cash Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #961 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers @ 12:35 ET - This total actually opened up as high as an 11 when numbers first were posted in the global markets on this one. Now, as of very early game day morning, the total has dropped to as low as a 10 in some places. As per usual, I am happy to fade the masses and go contrarian here. Sean Reid-Foley starts for the Blue Jays and is off a surprisingly strong 5-inning start versus the Yankees in his most recent outing. However, this is the same guy who previously walked 8 batters in just 9 innings spanning his two prior starts. Reid-Foley has a 4.94 ERA in home games in his young career. In the minors this season he has a 6.26 ERA and I expect the Rangers sticks to bounce back today after being shutout yesterday. However, the issue for Texas is they have Kolby Allard on the mound for this one. The young lefty has had 21 starts at the AAA level of the minors this season and has been hit at a .282 clip. I am not sold on him now just because he had a decent debut with the Rangers at Milwaukee last week. Remember last season (his only other MLB action) Allard allowed 12 runs (11 earned) in just 8 innings of work and now he is facing a Blue Jays team that has averaged scoring 6.5 runs per game in their past 18 games. Prior to yesterday's low-scoring contest, the over was 9-2-1 in the past dozen meetings between these teams. I expect the normal high-scoring results to resume early Wednesday. 8* OVER the total in Toronto

Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 Tuesday 10* Top Play Boston Red Sox Money Line (-) @ Cleveland Indians @ 7:10 ET - The Indians again blew a save opportunity in the top of the 9th inning yesterday but they survived courtesy of an opposite field walk off homer from Carlos Santana. Of course he is the same guy who hit a grand slam the day before in the top of the 10th after the Indians bullpen blew the save in the bottom of the 9th inning. Without Santana the Indians would likely have lost both those games. That is noteworthy here because the switch-hitter is hitting .182 in his 22 career at-bats against Chris Sale. The Red Sox southpaw comes into this one off a fantastic start and I look for him to come up big here. Though the Tribe have a great record against lefties this season their slugging percentage against left-handed pitchers actually ranks them among the worst teams in the majors at 23rd out of 30. As for the Red Sox against right-handed pitching, they are hitting .280 which ranks them #1 in the majors! Also, Boston has a .446 slugging percentage on the road this season which ranks them 7th out of all 30 teams. Mike Clevinger has been pitching very well for the Indians but he has an 8.03 ERA in his career against the Red Sox and has allowed a pair of homers in each of his two starts against Boston at Progressive Field. Sale has a particularly bad start at Cleveland in August of 2017 but in his other 4 starts in this ball park since the start of the 2014 season, Sale has allowed only 6 earned runs in 23 and 1/3 innings. That equates to a 2.31 ERA for the Boston southpaw. Sale shows a 6-11 record this season to the betting marketplace while Clevinger has a 7-2 record and yet the Red Sox are favored on the road here. Why? Take a wild guess where the sharp money is on this one...exactly! 10* BOSTON

UPDATE: The Blue Jays are now expected to use Wilmer Font in this one as a starter. However, he most likely will just be used as an "opener" so Thomas Pannone is likely to still have an impact on this game. Either way, note that Font has a 6.89 ERA in his 9 night game appearances this season. I look for plenty of runs from the Rangers whether Font or Pannone is on the hill. ORIGINAL: Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers @ 7:05 ET - The Rangers Lance Lynn has a 7.65 ERA in his 4 starts against the Blue Jays the past few seasons (including a rough outing this season). The Blue Jays Thomas Pannone allowed 7 earned runs in just 2 and 1/3 innings against the Yankees in his most recent start at Rogers Centre. Ironically, in the lone start of his career against the Rangers, Pannone also allowed 7 earned runs in only 2 and 1/3 innings at Texas in early May of this season. Yesterday's game was a 19-4 blowout win for the Blue Jays and I expect the Toronto sticks to remain red hot here as Lynn's history against them is poor. This total opened up at a 10 and has dropped to as low as a 9 which is offering huge value on the over in this one. The Rangers have a .447 slugging percentage against left-handed pitching this season and that puts them in company with solid hitting teams like the Red Sox, Yankees, A's, Astros, and Twins. Look for Texas to get to Pannone early and often and also note that there is reason to believe Lynn's struggles against Toronto continues considering the way the Blue Jays were swinging the sticks yesterday. Behind Lynn is a Rangers bullpen that has a 4.85 ERA to rank among the worst pens in MLB. The Texas sticks have struggled of late but facing Pannone will bring out the best in them. As for the Blue Jays, they have scored an average of 8.1 runs per game in their past 7 home games and they've scored 5 or more runs in 6 of those 7 contests! The Rangers have scored 5 or more runs in 10 of their last 14 games against the Blue Jays. I look for each team to get to 5 runs here and, of course, that is a situation that would guarantee at least 11 runs would be scored (6-5 game) at worst. 10* OVER the total in Toronto

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #953 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:40 ET - In 11 starts at the MLB level, Peter Lambert is 2-3 with a 6.87 ERA and opponents are pounding him at a .311 batting average. Lambert's ERA is 13.00 in his two starts thus far this month. The Diamondbacks didn't hit very well in their weekend series with division rival Los Angeles but those games were at Dodger Stadium. Look for Arizona to pound the ball on a hitter-friendly evening at a hitter-friendly ball park as Lambert, a rookie pitcher, continues to struggle at Coors Field. Also note that behind Lambert is a Rockies bullpen that is known for struggling in home games. The Diamondbacks certainly will have pitching concerns of their own in this one as they hand the ball to Merrill Kelly. The Arizona right-hander is also a rookie and he is 4-7 with a 5.21 ERA in his dozen road starts this season. Kelly will be facing the Rockies for the 3rd time already this season and he has struggled against Colorado. Kelly enters this start enduring some overall struggles of late as he has a 10.67 ERA in his last 3 starts. With the Diamondbacks bullpen also averaging more than 4 innings per game in their weekend series with the Dodgers, the Arizona pen is not exactly in ideal shape heading into this game. The over moves to 4-1 in Kelly's last 5 road starts. The Rockies enter this game on a 5-1 run to the over. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #962 Monday 10* Top Play Cleveland Indians Money Line (+) vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:10 ET - Many will be backing Boston here off a one-run extra--innings loss and facing Cleveland off an emotional extra-innings win yesterday. This is already evident in the way this line has been acting so far in the market place. That said, in typical contrarian fashion, I am happily investing in the home dog in this match-up. The Red Sox loss yesterday was their 11th in their last 14 games! The fact is Boston is slumping badly! As for the Indians, they have been playing very well for an extended stretch. Cleveland has won 21 of its last 28 games. So here you have a home dog winning 75% of its games over the past month facing a road team that has lost about 80% of its games the past two weeks. I'll take the home dog every time in a situation like this UNLESS the roadie has some big pitching edge. That is certainly not the case here! Eduardo Rodriguez starts for Boston. The Red Sox hurler is a left-hander and that is noteworthy because the Indians are 24-12 against southpaw starters this season! Also, Rodriguez has as many walks as strikeouts in his two starts this month. As for the Indians Zach Plesac, he has a 2.33 ERA in his last 5 home starts. Also, in his 6 night games this season, he is 4-0 with a 2.10 ERA and he has held opponents to a .198 batting average. The Indians, yesterday's 9th inning implosion notwithstanding, most certainly do have the better bullpen in this match-up as the Tribe rank at the top of the majors this season while the Red Sox pen has fallen off considerably this season. 10* CLEVELAND

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 4:10 ET - This total has dropped to an 8 after opening up at an 8.5 when lines first were posted on this game. I understand the move as Hyun-Jin Ryu has phenomenal numbers this season. The key to the value here with this total actually involves multiple aspects. The Dodgers Ryu was said to have a neck issue and is coming off the 10-day disabled list. Even if his neck injury was minor, the extra time off could throw off his rhythm here. Additionally, Ryu is facing a Diamondbacks team whose .498 slugging percentage against left-handed pitchers ranks them #1 in the National League! As for the Diamondbacks starter, Mike Leake, he is likely to get rocked here. He is getting hit at a .284 clip this season and, in his first start since coming to Arizona from Seattle, Leake was very fortunate. He allowed only 2 earned runs in his 5 innings of work even though he allowed 11 hits. I expect the Dodgers to punish Leake early and often in this match-up. Last night LA had 4 runs by the 4th inning but the game died after that. On Sunday look for Los Angeles to keep it going all the way through and for the Diamondbacks to join the "hit parade" party in this one as Ryu will not be as sharp as usual and they have fared well against lefties this season. Arizona did use 5 innings of bullpen again yesterday - for the 2nd straight game - and an early exit for Leake (likely) could also prove costly here. Don't be surprised if the Dodgers get this total into the winning side of the ledger all by themselves. 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers

Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #923 Sunday 10* Top Play Cleveland Indians Money Line (+) @ Minnesota Twins @ 2:10 ET - The Twins will be a popular choice here since they are at home with Jose Berrios on the mound and laying a "manageable" price on the money line in this one. However, I like Aaron Civale over Berrios in this match-up for multiple reasons. Civale has pitched extremely well in his two starts at the MLB level this season and this gives him the confidence to win a key divisional road game like this. He has shown at every level that he can get it done. For example, the jump from AA to AAA in the minors did not slow down Civale in the slightest. Additionally, now going from the minors to the majors Civale has remained "on point" with his pitching. The Indians are off a 4-1 loss yesterday but they are a PERFECT 7-0 the last 7 times they are off a defeat in which they scored 2 or less runs! Also, Cleveland was 7-1 in their past 8 games prior to yesterday and the Tribe had scored an average of 6 runs per game in those 7 victories. The slumping Twins had lost 4 straight games at home and 11 of their last 18 home games prior to yesterday's win. Now after one win yesterday Minnesota is expected to be back on track? I am not buying it and the fact is that the Twins are facing Civale for the first time ever while the Indians are facing Berrios for the 4th time already this season. Though Berrios has enjoyed success against Cleveland this season, he did allow 3 earned runs on 6 hits and 3 walks in just 5 innings of work in his last start against the Indians. Also, Berrios got crushed by the Braves on Tuesday and now faces a Tribe team that had been RED HOT before yesterday's loss. This is a beautiful value spot for a sizable underdog to roll to a road rout! 10* CLEVELAND

Earliest Cash Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #919 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees @ 1:05 ET - The Yankees lost 5-4 yesterday and will bounce back at the plate Sunday. However, Masahiro Tanaka can not be trusted and that is why the play here is the over. Tanaka compiled an 8.77 ERA in his 5 July starts and then began his August with allowing 5 earned runs in 5 and 1/3 innings. He has struggled all season on the road as he is 1-4 with a 7.51 ERA in his 10 starts away from home. Look for the Blue Jays to get to Tanaka early and often and they'll need to because Trent Thornton is likely to struggle. The Toronto right-hander just recently came back from an injury issue (elbow inflammation) and based on his most recent start (an ugly one against the Rays) Thornton still has a long ways to go! Also, Thornton is 1-4 with a 6.58 ERA in his 9 home starts this season. The over is 7-3 in Tanaka's road starts this season and 6-2-1 in Thornton's home starts this season. More of the same expected Sunday! 8* OVER the total in Toronto

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #971 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros @ 7:05 ET - Aaron Sanchez had a very surprising debut for the Astros. However, lets not forget that the former Blue Jay is 1-8 with a 6.83 ERA in his 12 road starts this season. Opponents have hit .310 against him away from home and the Orioles are a divisional foe of Toronto so they have plenty of familiarity with Sanchez. Though the Astros right-hander has a low ERA in his recent starts against Baltimore he has had issues with far too many walks. Sanchez has more walks than strikeouts in his last 4 starts against the Orioles and they could make him pay for issuing too many free passes in this one. Baltimore is off back to back losses but averaged 5.5 runs per game in their dozen games prior to the back to back low-scoring defeats. Also, the Astros lineup was on fire before yesterday's low-scoring win. The fact is that the teams combined to go a miserable 2 for 19 with runners in scoring position in yesterday's game. That won't happen again here. Prior to the 3-2 win yesterday, Houston had averaged scoring 7.4 runs per game in going 9-1 in their 10 prior games. The Orioles have the worst bullpen in the American League and they could be called upon early in this one with Aaron Brooks on the mound. The Baltimore right-hander has averaged less than 4 innings per start in his 5 outings (winless I might add) since coming to the Orioles. Brooks has a 6.63 ERA with the O's and also a 6.65 ERA in his major league career. Look for a slugfest in this one. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore

Afternoon Annihilation Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #967 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels @ 4:05 ET - Lefty Andrew Heaney is returning from an injury (shoulder inflammation) in his throwing arm. He has a 5.09 ERA this season Heaney's most recent start against Boston was at Fenway Park last season and the Red Sox crushed his offerings including 3 homers in just 3 and 1/3 innings of work. Heaney entered this season having gone 2-9 with a 5.60 ERA in his 19 road starts the past 3 season. Again this season he has struggled on the road and he is facing a potent Red Sox lineup which exploded for 16 runs in yesterday's win. The concern for Boston today is not how many runs they will score but, rather, will they be able to keep the Angels from scoring too many! While it is true that LA has struggled of late, facing the struggling Rick Porcello means that the Angels could enjoy a breakout game here at the plate. Porcello is off a good start in his only outing thus far in August. However, he had a 6.46 ERA in June and a 7.94 ERA in July. Porcello has a 6.61 ERA in day games this season and opponents have hit .302 against him in afternoon starts. Look for both these hurlers to get pounded in another very high-scoring game at Fenway Park. Results should be similar to last night's game. 8* OVER the total in Boston

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #921 Friday 8* OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels @ 7:10 ET - The Angels haven't been hitting well and that has contributed to their recent losing streak without a doubt. However, after Chris Sale bounced back and gave a dominating start versus LA last night, a struggling Brian Johnson gets the start tonight. It gives the Angels a second straight look at a southpaw and they go from facing a guy capable of putting together an ace-like performance to a guy whom has a 6.88 ERA this season. Not only that, Johnson has been hit at an unreal .380 clip in his 8 appearances (3 starts) this season. Also, though the Red Sox did not use much bullpen yesterday (only their closer), they did use plenty of bullpen in Wednesday's game (including their closer again). That said, with Johnson averaging less than 4 innings in his starts this season, the bulllpen absolutely could be asked to do too much in this one. As for the Angels bullpen, they rank in the lower half of the majors this season. They'll be needed plenty tonight too because Jaime Barria gets the start here. The Angels right-hander has a 6.36 ERA this season and has not lasted more than 5 innings in any of his half dozen starts this season. Barria has a 10.13 ERA on the road this season and has been hit at a .349 clip away from home. That is why this total is on the rise in the betting markets even though Barria's starts have trended under all season long. He is going to get rocked and so too will Johnson. Yes the Red Sox did not hit well last night but previously they had been knocking the cover off the ball in home games. That type of hot hitting resumes Friday. 8* OVER the total in Boston

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #919 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees @ 7:05 ET - The Yankees JA Happ will be facing his former team. Though he has enjoyed success against the Blue Jays, Happ is likely to struggle here. He enters this start in poor current form as he has a 6.04 ERA since the All Star break. Also, Toronto has been hot at the plate as the Blue Jays have averaged 6.3 runs per game their last 13 games. Speaking of hot at the plate, the Yankees are on absolute fire. New York has won 9 straight games and averaged 8.6 runs per game during this winning streak! The over is 16-3 in the Yankees last 19 games. The over is 3-0 in the Blue Jays last 3 home games and all 3 of those games have totaled 18 runs or more! The Jays Sean Reid-Foley has not given up many earned runs (1 in 9 innings) since he moved back into the rotation a couple weeks ago but he has been very fortunate! Toronto's Reid-Foley has walked 8 plus allowed 8 hits for a total of 16 base runners in 9 innings. The fact he only allowed 1 earned run was a minor miracle and he won't be so fortunate against the streaking, and powerful, Yankees! The Yanks, as a road favorite of -110 or higher, are an incredible 26-5 to the over this season! More of the same on Friday. 10* OVER the total in Toronto

Earliest Cash Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #961 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels @ 7:10 ET - The Angels Dillon Peters is off a strong outing but he has made only two starts this season. The fact is the southpaw has been hit hard for much of his 3-year career at the MLB level. Peters has a 5.23 ERA in 20 games (13 starts) at the MLB level and the lefty has been hit at a .289 clip. This season he has a low ERA but in limited action and plus Peters is still getting hit hard - .290 BAA this year. He'll be opposed by Red Sox southpaw Chris Sale. The Boston left-hander has not been himself since June and I look for that to continue here. Sale has gone 2-4 with a 7.47 ERA in his last 6 starts. The lefty has given up 11 homers in his last 8 starts. Look for Sale to struggle with an Angels lineup that has plenty of power hitters in it on a hitter-friendly night at Fenway Park. Also, Peters threw over 100 pitches in a long outing last week. Don't be surprised if Peters "peters out" early in this one as a result. That said, the Angels bullpen is mediocre at best this season and the Red Sox pen also falls into the "middle of the road" category this season. 10* OVER the total in Boston

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #927 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres @ 6:40 ET - The Padres have some weaker offensive numbers due to their pitcher-friendly home park. On the road this season San Diego actually has a solid .446 slugging percentage which ranks them #3 in the National League! This is a battle of southpaws Wednesday and the Padres rank 6th in the National League with a .443 slugging percentage against lefties. As for the Mariners, they also have a .443 slugging percentage against left-handed pitching this season and that ranks them 7th in the American League. Look for Seattle to have a big day at the plate here as they face a struggling Joey Lucchesi. The Padres left-hander appears to be running out of steam as the season has gone on. Also, Lucchesi has struggled on the road throughout this season. The lefty is 1-4 with a 6.46 ERA in his 9 starts away from home. As for the Mariners Yusei Kikuchi, he has been known for his struggles this season but also for getting solid run support. This is why the over is an amazing 17-4-2 in his 23 starts this season. He has struggled for much of this season and certainly is showing no signs of any type of drastic turnaround either. In fact, Kikuchi is going the wrong direction. Since the All Star break, Kikuchi is 0-2 with an 8.24 ERA in his 4 starts. With yesterday's 9-4 Padres win, San Diego has now scored 5 or more runs in 7 of its last 9 games. The over is 6-2 in the Padres last 8 games. The Mariners had won 5 straight home games and averaged scoring 6 runs per game in those victories prior to yesterday's ugly loss. The M's sticks are sure to bounce back but look for Kikuchi's struggles to continue! 10* OVER the total in Seattle

Contrarian Crusher Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in San Francisco Giants vs Washington Nationals @ 3:45 ET - The Nationals rank dead last in the majors for bullpen ERA this season. Couple that with the fact they do have a potent offense but also are starting a struggling starting pitcher here...and you can see why I like the over in this match-up. Yes, Joe Ross allowed only 1 hit in his most recent start but he walked 5 in that outing which lasted only 5 and 1/3 innings. The Nationals Ross has a 5.79 ERA the past 3 seasons combined. He has mostly been used out of the bullpen this season and has been hit at .323 clip in his 30 innings of work. The Washington right-hander has allowed 16 earned runs in his last 17 and 1/3 innings. The Giants are starting rookie Shaun Anderson in this one. He has been very hittable this season. Opponents are hitting .293 against him on the season and he has compiled a 5.08 ERA. Anderson has a 7.03 ERA in his 5 starts since the All Star break so things are not exactly on an uptick here either. Yesterday's game stayed under the total only because the teams went scoreless for the final two innings. In an afternoon game at Oracle Park I do not expect a repeat of that and this one should get over the total rather easily. The Giants have struggled a bit recently but they were the #1 team in the National League for runs scored in the month of July. As for Washington, they have a .352 on base percentage since the All Star break. That ranks the Nationals 2nd in the National League! Plenty of scoring opportunities expected early, often, and throughout this one. 8* OVER the total in San Francisco

Earliest Cash Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #921 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Atlanta Braves @ 1:10 ET - This is a battle of southpaws and the Twins are the #1 team in the majors with a .525 slugging percentage against lefties this season. The Braves are no slouches at the plate either as they are the #2 team in the National League with a .466 slugging percentage against left-handed pitching this year. Atlanta will take advantage of a struggling Martin Perez. The Minnesota southpaw is coming back down to earth after he was pitching better than expected earlier this season. It is has definitely been a "regression to the mean" cycle for Perez and he has now allowed 7 homers in his last 3 starts. The Braves Max Fried has been hit at a .284 clip in his road games this season. Also, in his 4 day games (3 starts), Fried has a 5.82 ERA and has been hit at a .347 clip. With yesterday's game flying over the total easily, the over is now 11-5 in the Twins last 16 games. More of the same expected this afternoon. 8* OVER the total in Minnesota

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #977 Tuesday 10* Top Play Atlanta Braves Money Line (+) @ Minnesota Twins @ 8:10 ET - Certainly the Twins and Jose Berrios deserve respect at home. However, this line is really showing absolutely no respect to a Braves team that has the 2nd best record in the National League and also has a respectable pitcher on the mound here. Mike Foltneywicz may not have good numbers this season but after his demotion to the minors don't be surprised when he comes back with plenty of fire and passion for tonight's start. Instead of sulking about his demotion to AAA Gwinnett, Foltneywicz worked on his pitches, showed great improvement with his slider, and went 5-1 in ten starts in the minors. In his last 3 starts there he compiled a 1.13 ERA. He'll be ready tonight. Also, Foltneywicz had a 2.85 ERA and held opponents to a .195 batting average last season. As for the Twins Berrios, yes he is off back to back strong starts but the most recent one was against miserable Miami. Also, lets talk about the form Berrios had in his prior recent starts which included some quality opposition. Berrios allowed 26 hits, walked 9, and hit 3 batters in his 4 prior starts which spanned 23 innings. Atlanta is off back to back losses and they are 6-1 the last 7 times they've entered a game off 2 or more consecutive losses. Also, the Twins are a money-burning 7-12 (-$11,400) this season as a home favorite of -125 to -175. I am grabbing the big dog value with a Braves team whose 34 road wins on the season ranks them #1 in the National League. 10* ATLANTA

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #967 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:10 ET - Each bullpen gave up 3 earned runs in yesterday's game and that doesn't come as a big surprise. The Red Sox bullpen has fallen off this season and they rank only in the middle of the pack this season for bullpen ERA. The Royals bullpen ranks as one of the worst in the majors both for batting average against and bullpen ERA. That said, with both starting pitchers in this match-up likely to struggle, look for another game going over the total Tuesday. This total opened up at an 11 but then dropped to a 10.5 which is offering great line value on the over. Andrew Cashner has struggled badly since coming to the Red Sox. The right-hander is 1-3 with a 6.94 ERA and has been hit at a .333 clip in his 4 starts in a Boston uniform. Also note that Cashner allowed nearly 2 baserunners per inning and compiled a 5.56 ERA and .319 BAA in his two starts versus KC last season. Now he gives the Royals another look at him in first start against them this season. As for Kansas City starter Jakob Junis, he is 3-7 with a 5.35 ERA in his dozen night starts this season. Junis got hammered by the Red Sox earlier this season and that was at home too. Now he faces them at Fenway Park where their lineup thrives. Look for the BoSox to build off yesterday's 7-5 win. The over is on a 29-11 run in Red Sox games and Kansas City is now 8-2 to the over in their last 10 games. The over is 8-1 in Cashner's home starts this season. The over is 17-8 in Royals games against AL East opponents this season. 10* OVER the total in Boston

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #917 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:10 ET - The two teams with the longest current losing streaks in the majors are matched up in this one on Monday night so "something has to give". What I feel is going to "give" here is that the pitching staff of each of these teams is going to give up a ton of runs in this one. The Red Sox bullpen has struggled this season and ranks in the bottom half of the majors while the Royals bullpen ERA ranks them as one of the worst bullpens in baseball. Considering that factor as well as the likelihood that both starting pitchers struggle here as they get pounded again and you can see why I love the over in this match-up despite the big number. In fact this total was high as a 12 before dropping to an 11.5 as of early this morning. Boston's Rick Porcello is having a nightmare season and has given up 6 runs in 4 of his last 6 starts. The Royals Mike Montgomery has a 6.34 ERA this season and opponents are hitting .340 against him on the year! Porcello had a 6.46 ERA in June and then followed that up with a 7.94 ERA in July! The over is 6-0 this season when Kansas City is revenging a 3 game sweep that had occurred at home against opponent. Indeed the Royals were swept by the Red Sox in a 3-game set in Kansas City two months ago! For the BoSox, the over is 21-11 this season as a favorite of -175 to -250 and their money line is within that price range Monday! 10* OVER the total in Boston

Earliest Cash Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #903 Monday 8* OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 7:05 ET - You know that Jordan Lyles will want this game against his former team. However, this is also the type of situation where you'll see a pitcher try to do "too much" and they have a tendency to "over throw" and then struggle with location of pitches. At the same time, the Pirates are certainly familiar with his repertoire of pitches. Lyles is off a good start in his Brewers debut but that was at pitcher-friendly Oakland. He'll find pitching at Pittsburgh to be much tougher. In fact, in 9 starts here at PNC Park this season, the former Pirate Lyles compiled a 5.52 ERA and got hit at a .314 clip. He'll be opposed by a struggling Dario Agrazal. The young right-hander has given up 5 homers and been hit quite hard in his past two starts. That's 5 homers allowed in just 9 innings spanning his past two starts. Also, this will be the first time that the rookie is facing a team for a second time. Since the Brewers have already faced Agrazal, that also increases their likelihood of success at the plate tonight. The Brewers bullpen ranks in the lower half of the majors and the Pirates pen ranks down near the bottom of the majors on the year. 8* OVER the total in Pittsburgh

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants @ 3:10 ET - When totals get this big (opened up at a 14) many over players get nervous and shy away while the under players come in thinking they've struck gold. Trust me, the opening number was absolutely justified and, that said, the early drop to a 13.5 is simply adding more value here. This is an early afternoon game at Coors Field and temperatures will be rising to the 90s with low humidity and that means the ball will carry extremely well. Couple that with the fact that a pair of struggling starting pitchers take the mound and you have the perfect recipe for a slugfest. The Giants Tyler Beede has a 6.23 ERA in his 10 appearances (9 starts) on the road in his career. The San Francisco right-hander has made only one appearance at Coors Field in his career and in just 2 innings he gave up 3 hits plus walked 3 so he was somewhat fortunate that he only allowed 2 earned runs in that outing. Don't be surprised if things get ugly for him in a hurry in this one. The Rockies have averaged scoring 7 runs per game in their last 29 games at home. The Giants also have been scoring very well as they've been one of the hottest teams in the league for many weeks now. San Francisco has averaged scoring 7 runs per game in their last 22 road games. The Giants have averaged scoring 9.4 runs per game in their last 8 contests at Coors Field. The SF lineup will take advantage of facing a struggling Kyle Freeland here. The Colorado lefty has been hit a .346 in his 8 home starts this season while going 1-4 and compiling an ugly 10.31 ERA. Freeland has given up 13 hits and walked 5 in 10 innings of work against the Giants this season. With the Rockies bullpen also having a very high ERA at home this season, you can see why I am expecting a wild game at Coors Field this afternoon. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Earliest Cash Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #965 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Los Angeles Angels @ 1:10 ET - Shane Bieber has been hit 81 points higher at home than on the road this season. Is this a fluke? Absolutely not! Last year, in his rookie season, Bieber was hit 78 points higher at Progressive Field compared to his outings away from home. The fact is that Bieber has an unimpressive 4.79 ERA in his career outings at home. As for the Angels Jaime Barria, he has struggled badly away from home. In Anaheim he has been fantastic but on the road note that Barria has been hit at a .356 clip and has compiled a 10.62 ERA. Also, the Angels right-hander enters this outing off a rough July as he compiled a 7.23 ERA last month. The very first total that opened up globally on this game was a 10. Now, as of early game day morning, the total is down to a 9 both in Vegas as well as globally. That said, in typical contrarian fashion I am fading the line move as both these pitchers trends noted above are projected to continue here. The Angels are 11-6 to the over this season in Sunday games. The Indians have been a favorite of -200 or more 21 times this season and only 7 of those (33%) have resulted in an under. I like the odds here for a high-scoring match-up in this early afternoon match-up. The Indians are 10-3 in their last 13 home games and have scored an average of 7.2 runs per game in those 10 home victories. 8* OVER the total in Cleveland 

Run Line Rout - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #976 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 runs +125 vs Chicago White Sox @ 1:05 ET - I got burned with the run line in this match-up yesterday when the White Sox got an unearned run in the top of the 9th on a 2 out 2 strike RBI single. It happens but I'll come right back with the same play today. The Phillies went 0 for 5 with runners in scoring position but that won't happen again today against Reynaldo Lopez. Yes, the White Sox right-hander has had better numbers since the All Star break but his long-term numbers tell the full story and a regression to the mean is happening again. It started in his most recent start when he did not have good stuff but managed to escape with minimal damage. Lopez allowed 6 hits and walked 4 for 10 baserunners in just 5.1 innings. He was fortunate to allow only 2 earned runs in that start. He won't be so fortunate here as the Phillies bats explode against him. The White Sox won't be able to match the Phillies scoring here for multiple reasons. One is the fact that Chicago has lost 9 of its last 11 games and scored an average of just TWO runs per game! The other reason the White Sox will struggle at the plate is that Drew Smyly has been dominating since coming to Philadelphia. Sometimes a change of scenery is all a hurler needs for success and Smyly needed out of Texas. He has displayed an excellent cutter since coming to Philly and has allowed just 1 earned run in 13 innings with the Phillies. Also, the Phils get closer Hector Neris back from his 3-game suspension today. 10* PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES Run Line -1.5 runs +125

Run Line Rout - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #930 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 runs (-130) vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies need their ace in a big way on Saturday after an inexcusable loss last night To lose at home in 15 innings to a slumping White Sox team was beyond disgusting for this Philadelphia team. Suffice to say, look for Aaron Nola and a fired up Phillies lineup to get their revenge today. Part of the key to the value with this play is the fact that last night's game went 15 innings. That lengthy game put plenty of stress on both bullpens. That means that the length the starting pitchers can go in Saturday's game is going to play a key role in the outcome. That said, the Phillies edge on Saturday became even bigger after the way last night's game played out. Ross Detwiler starts for the White Sox and his ERA has consistently been above 6.00 since the 2015 season! He was used as a part-time starter in 2015 and 2016 and averaged about 5 innings per start. This season Detwiler has averaged only about 4 innings per starts. Compare this with long-term workhorse Nola. He consistently averages 6 innings per start but has been even stronger of late as he has averaged about 7 innings per start his last 8 starts. He has dominated with an ERA below 2.00 during this stretch and he offers huge edges over Detwiler given the above factors. Keep in mind, prior to last night's White Sox win they had been slumping badly while the Phillies were starting to heat up. That said, huge value here with Philly available in the -130 price range on the run line (laying the run and a half). Lay it! 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 runs

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:05 ET - This total opened up at a 10.5 and has dropped to a 10. Yesterday's game stayed under the total but the Orioles entered Friday's game on a 6-1 run to the over. Also, the Blue Jays entered yesterday's game on a 5-1 run to the over. Thomas Pannone has struggled on the road throughout his young MLB career. Last season he had a 6.20 ERA in his 7 road appearances (3 starts). This season the Blue Jays southpaw is 0-3 with a 7.89 ERA in his 11 appearances (4 starts) away from home. Yes he had a great home start against the Orioles last year but he got rocked in his lone start at Oriole Park at Camden Yards! Speaking of rough outings in Baltimore, Dylan Bundy has found road starts to be more to his liking than home starts! This season, Bundy is 1-7 with a 6.16 ERA in his 10 home starts. By the way, last season Bundy went 2-15 with a 7.32 ERA in evening games. He was much better in day starts. Of course this game goes at 7 PM ET in Baltimore. Bundy was successful at Toronto in early July but now the Blue Jays get a quick second look and, again, the Orioles right-hander has been awful at home this season. Overall this year he has had one good month (May). Bundy has had an ERA of 5.68 or more in each of the other months this season! Also, prior to that good start against the Jays a month ago, note that Bundy's 3 most recent starts against Toronto (all in the 2nd half of last season) saw him allow 17 runs (14 earned) in just 15 and 2/3 innings. The Orioles bullpen ranks as the worst in the AL. The Blue Jays pen is respectable but will be asked to do too much here as Pannone's road struggles continue. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #973 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals @ 8:10 PM ET - After the Twins blew a 4-1 lead in the bottom of the 9th yesterday at lowly Miami (and then lost the game in 12 innings), my first inclination was to go with Minnesota on the run line in today's game. However, I can not trust Martin Perez in this match-up. The Twins southpaw has given up 11 runs (8 earned) in 11 and 2/3 innings spanning his last two starts against the Royals. Both of those outings were in June so Kansas City has had some recent looks at the lefty and should enjoy success again here. The key to the over is the angry Minnesota lineup likely pummeling a struggling Glenn Sparkman in this one. The Royals right-hander got destroyed again in his most recent start (against the Indians) and faces another huge test here. Pitching at Minnesota is highly unlikely to go well for Sparkman as he is 0-4 with an 8.73 ERA in 9 games (6 starts) on the road this season. Opponents are hitting an incredible .347 against Sparkman when he is away from home this season. Of course other key factors here include the fact that the Twins had to use some extra bullpen with yesterday's loss going 12 innings. Also, the Royals bullpen has been hit at a .271 clip this season which ranks them dead last in the American League and 29th in the majors! You can see why I am expecting runs early, often, and throughout this contest. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota

Run Line Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #976 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 runs +105 vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:05 ET - The White Sox are off a 4-0 shutout loss yesterday and have now lost 18 of their last 23 games! Chicago has seen 16 of those 18 losses come by two or more runs! The Phillies are a big favorite here on the money line but that is why the play here is the run line. Not only are the ChiSox slumping, their losses have been coming by a multiple run margin! With their 10-2 win yesterday, Philadelphia has won 8 of its past 12 games. The last 4 wins all have come by 2 or more runs and have averaged a margin of victory of 4.8 runs per win. The Phillies will start Jason Vargas in this one and he has a 3.53 ERA in his last 13 starts and was very strong for the Mets (2.93 ERA and .208 BAA) in his home starts for them. Ivan Nova starts for the White Sox and though he enters off a pair of strong starts, both of those were at home. Nova has been getting absolutely crushed on the road. In his last two starts away from home he has allowed 10 earned runs in 10 and 2/3 innings. In his last 3 road starts, Nova has given up 24 hits in 16 and 2/3 innings. Look for this one to be all Phillies as they have the edge in the starting pitching match-up plus the home field edge plus Philly is the much hotter team while the Sox have been ice cold for a month now. By the way, the White Sox also rank in the lower third of the majors for slugging percentage against left-handed pitchers. 10* PHILADELPHIA Run Line -1.5 runs

Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Thursday 8* OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds @ 7:20 ET - This total opened up at a 10 and has dropped to as low as a 9. I like the added value here with the over as Anthony DeSclafani matches up with Max Fried. The Reds DeSclafani has been successful of late but he also has been staked to some big leads in games and has been able to be very aggressive with his approach against hitters. That will change tonight. For one thing, the Braves lineup is powerful and is the type of lineup that will crush an overly aggressive pitcher. Additionally, a huge lead for Cincinnati on the road is quite unlikely. I like the over here because I also expect the Braves Fried to be "giving it up" in this outing too. The Reds scored an average of 8 runs per game in their most recent road series - a 3-game set at Milwaukee. Also, Cincinnati enters this game having won 4 of 5 and having averaged 6.3 runs per game in their last 3 games. Fried got hit at a .313 clip in June and a .318 clip in July with big ERA numbers in each month. The Reds can get to him early and often. As for DeSclafani, he has a 4.65 ERA on the road this season and lets not forget the right-hander had a 4.93 ERA last season. He has been pitching a little "over his head" of late and the Braves quickly bring him back down to earth. The Braves enter this game having scored an average of 7.8 runs per game their last 6 games. 8* OVER the total in Atlanta

Divisional Dominator Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #911 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 7:10 ET - Andrew Cashner allowed only 3 earned runs in 6 and 2/3 innings against the Yankees in his most recent start BUT he gave up 10 hits. The fact is that he has been hit hard in all 3 of his starts since coming to the Red Sox from the Orioles. Now he faces a Rays team that is heating up at the plate. With yesterday's 8-5 Tampa Bay win at Fenway Park, the Rays have now won 5 of 6 games and have scored an average of 8.3 runs per game in their past 4 games. The Red Sox will be in bounce back mode after 3 straight home losses. Of course 3 straight defeats at Fenway Park is unusual for Boston but I don't think Cashner will be the stopper they need. That said, the Red Sox are going to have to do it with their bats Thursday and that is why I like the over so much. The Rays are starting southpaw Brandon McKay. He was recalled from AAA ball for this start and he got rocked in his most recent MLB start two weeks ago. McKay has pitched extremely well at the minor league level but, of course pitching at the MLB level is always a different challenge. McKay has been hit hard in 2 of his last 3 MLB starts and certainly pitching at Fenway Park is not an easy place to get back on track. Boston has a .500 slugging percentage in home games this season which ranks them #1 in the American League. Also, the Red Sox rank 4th in the AL for slugging percentage against southpaw pitchers this season. The over is 14-4 in Boston's last 18 games and that includes 6 straight Red Sox games going over the total. More of the same expected on Thursday. 10* OVER the total in Boston 

Run Line Rout - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #973 Wednesday 10* Top Play Minnesota Twins Run Line -1.5 runs @ Miami Marlins @ 7:10 ET - The Twins won a tight low-scoring ball game yesterday by a 2-1 count. That was the 15th time in 23 games in which the Marlins were held to 3 or less runs. That said, I certainly can't see Miami's lackluster lineup enjoying success against Jose Berrios. For one thing, this is an inter-league match-up and the Marlins are not familiar with him. For another thing, Berrios got back on track with 12 strikeouts against the White Sox. He has a 2.50 ERA over the months of June and July combined as he continues to impress. As for Sandy Alcantara, I don't mean any disrespect but he was an All-Star this season partially because the Marlins had to have a representative. His first half numbers show a 4-8 record and a 3.82 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Alcantara was truly not dominant to say the least and now he has fallen hard in the 2nd half of the season. Since the All Star break, Alcantara is win-less in 3 starts and opponents are hitting nearly .300 against him. He is going to have his hands full with a Twins team which has a .514 slugging percentage in the month of July. Note that the impressive mark places Minnesota 2nd out of all 30 MLB teams for slugging percentage in the month of July. By the way, Miami has a slugging percentage of .373 this month and that places them dead last in the National League. This game has road rout written all over it! Twins are 14 games over .500 in road games this season while the Marlins are 13 games under .500 in home games this year. Of course that is why Minnesota is a big road favorite here on the money line. The value is on the run line where one can invest in the Twins at -1.5 runs at nearly even money! This is a great value as more than 75% of the Twins wins have been by 2 or more runs this season. Also, 75% of the Marlins losses this year have been by 2 or more runs. 10* MINNESOTA Run Line -1.5 runs

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #955 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 3:10 ET - This total opened up at a 12.5 and has dropped to a 12 as of very early Wednesday morning. This is offering great line value on the over. I understand the move as Hyun-Jin Ryu and German Marquez both have some excellent numbers. The key is the venue for this one! Ryu has found Coors Field to be a nightmare and Marquez also consistently struggles here. Ryu entered this season having gone 0-3 with a 10.13 ERA in starts at Coors Field the 3 prior seasons. That's why it comes as no surprise that in his lone start here in 2019 he got rocked for 7 earned runs in 4 innings. Like I said, this is a nightmare venue for Ryu and also note that he has admitted having some issues with command of his pitches in recent starts. He was able to get away with it in those outings but a lack of command in hitter-friendly Denver leads to another nightmare outing! As for the Rockies Marquez, he has been great in his last two starts but those were on the road. In his most recent home start Marquez got rocked and that continued a long-term trend! He has been hit at a .336 clip and has a 7.07 ERA in his home starts this season. A fluke? Absolutely not as Marquez also had a 4.74 ERA and a .284 BAA in his home starts last season. The Dodgers possess a very potent lineup and, considering the above factors, a back and forth slug-fest is likely on a hot afternoon in Denver. The hot weather means the ball is going to carry especially well in a day game at Coors Field. Los Angeles has a .479 slugging percentage against right-handed pitchers and that is #1 in the National League this season. The Rockies have a .524 slugging percentage in home games this season and that is #1 in the majors! 10* OVER the total in Colorado

Game of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #902 Tuesday 10* Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs San Francisco Giants @ 7:05 ET - We're getting a very favorable line here to back the Phillies at home. It is certainly not a "mistake line" either. The reason Philadelphia is such a short favorite here is because the Giants have won 19 of their last 24 games. Indeed, San Francisco has been one of the hottest teams in the majors over the past 4 weeks. That said, why fade them here? It is all about the match-ups. The Giants have a .367 slugging percentage against left-handed pitching this season and that ranks them dead last in the majors - 30th out of 30 teams! The Phillies Drew Smyly got a wake up call with the Rangers as he had a horrible first half of the season and was sent down to the minors. Instead of hanging his head and falling to pieces, Smyly piled up the strikeouts at AAA with the San Antonio Missions in the Pacific Coast League. He then got picked up by the Phillies and was brilliant in striking out 8 in 6 innings against the Pirates and keeping them off balance throughout that game. Pittsburgh, like San Francisco, is another team that struggles against lefties and that is why I expect another strong start from Smyly here. As for the Phillies, they should pound Tyler Beede. The Giants right-hander has a 6.12 ERA in road outings at the MLB level. That is over 9 appearances (8 starts) so that is a big enough sample size to show he struggles when he is not at pitcher-friendly AT & T Park. Beede faces the Phillies at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park and the Phils are ranked 4th out of the 15 teams in the National League for runs scored per game at home. The Giants Beede got rocked in his most recent start against the Cubs and I expect similar results for him tonight. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #923 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 7:05 ET - Taylor Clarke is off a RARE quality start in his most recent outing. So is the "buy sign" now "on" for him? Of course not! That means that actually the fade is on here as he now faces the Bronx Bombers in their own home in his very next start after hosting AL East cellar-dwellars (Baltimore) in his prior appearance. Clarke has a 6.10 ERA in this, his rookie, season at the MLB level. In my mind this was not unexpected as Clarke compiled a 7.22 ERA at the AAA level of the minors in his 7 starts there this season! The good news for the Diamondbacks is they face another southpaw today. Arizona has a .496 slugging percentage against left-handers this season and that ranks them #1 in the National League on the season! JA Happ gets the start for the Yankees here and the lefty has given up 14 hits in his last 8 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts. Overall this season Happ has struggled at Yankee Stadium as he has a 5.76 ERA and has been hit at a .302 clip in the Bronx on the year! The Yankees have averaged 7.2 runs per game their last 13 games and their games continue flying over the total. The Diamondbacks have averaged 6 runs per game in their last 13 games. Also, both Arizona and the Yanks are continuing to give up runs in big batches. This one has the makings of a slugfest in the Bronx. As a road dog of +150 or more, the Diamondbacks are 10-3 to the over this season. The Yankees are 10-2 to the over this season when they are playing with road loss revenge and they lost both games at Arizona earlier this season. Payback time here means a ton of runs expected from the Bronx Bombers! Happ will be giving up plenty to the Dbacks as well. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees

Contrarian Crusher Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #951 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:05 ET - This total opened up at a 9.5 and has dropped to a 9 (not unexpected) and, in typical contrarian fashion, I am going against the line move and playing the over. Certainly I understand what the betting markets are looking at here as both David Keuchel and Patrick Corbin are solid southpaws with low ERA numbers on the season. What is getting underestimated is the potency of each of these two lineups and I feel this number is too low when that is given adequate consideration. Corbin recently faced the Braves and he gave up just 2 earned runs in 5 innings but he was fortunate as he allowed 8 hits! The Nats lefty won't be so fortunate in the rematch. As for Keuchel, he gave up 4 runs (3 earned) on 8 hits in just 5 innings of work at Washington last month. As you can see, there is reason to believe both hurlers could get "touched up" in this one! Additionally, the Nationals 6.04 ERA ranks them as the worst in the majors. Atlanta enters this game having averaged scoring 9.3 runs per game in their 3-game series with the Phillies over the weekend! The Nationals have scored an average of 5.5 runs per game in their last 13 games. This will be the 24th game this season that the Braves have had against a left-handed starter this season. So far only 8 have resulted in an under. Look for that trend to continue here as this one surprises many and ends up with double digits in runs scored. 10* OVER the total in Washington

Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #917 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins @ 2:10 ET - After the first game of this series flew over the total, the second game stayed under despite Minnesota scoring 6 runs and the third game stayed under despite Chicago scoring 5 runs. The key to the over on Sunday is both teams should certainly contribute well to this total. Dylan Covey's return to the rotation for the White Sox saw him strike out 7 while issuing no walks in 6 innings. However, he still allowed 5 earned runs in that outing and this was against a bad Marlins team. Covey is now 6-27 with a 6.09 in his 58 MLB appearances including 42 starts. I expect him to get pounded here as the Twins bounce back after a miserable night at the plate where they scored only 1 run. The issue for Minnesota today will also be their starting pitcher as they hand the ball to Kyle Gibson. The veteran right-hander is 6-1 at home this season but note that he is just 3-3 in his 10 road starts and has been hit at a .282 clip when on the road - that's 60 points higher than when he is at home. Also, in 11 and 2/3 innings spanning his last two road starts against the White Sox, Gibson has allowed 12 runs (9 earned). Considering all of the above as well as the fact that these are two mediocre bullpens in this match-up, I expect runs early and often and throughout this series finale. Covey's starts have trended under this season but that makes no sense given his poor performance. That will fix itself now that he is back in the rotation and still struggling. Also, the over is 6-3 in Gibson's road starts this season. 10* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox 

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #902 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Atlanta Braves @ 1:05 ET - This line opened up as high as a -145 but has dropped down to as low as a -130 as of very early Sunday morning. In typical contrarian fashion, I am going against the line move and taking advantage of the extra value being given to the home team with their ace on the mound. After the Braves won each of the first two games of this series in blowout fashion, many in the betting marketplace will feel they are unstoppable now. The key here is that a "stopper" steps on the mound for the Phillies in this one. Aaron Nola has allowed more than 1 earned run just ONCE in his last SEVEN starts! Included in this run was a great outing at home against the Braves when he shut them out and held them to just 4 hits in 8 innings in early July. Nola is a perfect 4-0 in his 8 day game starts this season. Part of what is keying the value here is that everyone is high on Kevin Gausman again after just one start. Certainly the Braves right-hander had an impressive line score in his win over Washington last Sunday. However, he actually gave up a lot of hard hit balls in that start and was quite fortunate. These are things you don't see in a typical boxscore but it was evident if you watched his outing. I look for the Phillies to hit him hard. Lets not forget that Gausman is 1-3 with a 6.35 ERA in his 6 road starts this season. Opponents are crushing him to the tune of a .316 batting average in his road outings this year. The Phillies very RARELY have been swept at home this season and I expect a huge response this afternoon with this pitching match-up also helping the cause! 10* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #979 Saturday 10* Top Play Houston Astros Run Line -1.5 runs @ St Louis Cardinals @ 7:15 ET - The Astros lost yesterday's game in the bottom of the 8th. I know the Cardinals have been hot but after Houston blew their 8th inning lead, I look for ace pitcher Gerrit Cole to restore order for the Astros. Of course the odds makers expect the same and that is why Houston is priced as a heavy money line favorite on the road in this one. As everyone knows by now, I never lay big prices. Where I see the value here is by laying the 1.5 runs with the Astros as I do expect a road rout in this one. Cole is 7-0 with a 2.03 ERA in his last 11 starts. The Houston right-hander continues to pile up strikeouts. We're getting some value here because the Cardinals Daniel Ponce de Leon has a low ERA on the season. Keep in mind, Ponce de Leon has not thrown a lot of innings this season and we're now seeing signs some struggles are on the way. In his last two starts, both against a Pirates lineup not nearly as tough as this Astros lineup, the Cardinals right-hander has as many walks as strikeouts. Also, over those two outings Ponce de Leon allowed 11 hits in less than 7 innings of work. Including the 6 walks he has a 2.55 WHIP in his last two starts. Allowing about 5 baserunners for every two innings of work will get a hurler into trouble in no time against an angry Astros lineup that has plenty of pop. Cards took game one of this series but Houston gets payback in this one! 7 of the Astros last 8 wins have come by a margin of two or more runs. As for St Louis, 15 of the last 20 Cardinals losses have come by a margin of two or more runs. 10* HOUSTON -1.5 runs

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #971 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins @ 7:10 ET - Chicago's Ivan Nova is off a rare strong start but he faced a bad Marlins team! In fact, against American League foes Nova has been charged with 4 or more runs in 7 straight starts! Look for him to struggle against a strong Twins team Saturday evening as Minnesota has won 4 of its last 6 games and scored an average of 8.3 runs per game in the process! As for the White Sox lineup, certainly they have struggled of late. However, facing Martin Perez is likely to bring out the best in them. Perez has allowed 11 earned runs in 11 and 2/3 innings spanning his last two starts against them. Also, Perez enters this outing with an 8.10 ERA in his July starts against American League foes. His stuff was very hittable in his most recent start and I see no reason to believe that will change here. The wind will be blowing out to left at a decent clip in this one and that will also aid the cause here as a slugfest ensues. 10* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #921 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Indians @ 8:15 ET - Last night's game saw 31 runners left on base. Also, the teams combined to go 2 for 26 with runners in scoring position! Even though the game went 14 innings those are still ridiculously insane numbers that reflect futility in clutch situations. It is in situations like these that I like to follow up with an "over" the very next day. Even though the Indians have a strong bullpen the fact is that both teams used up a ton of bullpen yesterday and that is also noteworthy because the Royals bullpen is one of the worst in the majors and now they are short on pitching for tonight's game. Making the situation even worse for KC coming into tonight's game is the fact that Royals starter Jakob Junis may not last long. I know he had a good start against the Indians in his most recent start but that has been the exception rather than the norm throughout his career. Junis has a 5.87 ERA in his 4 starts against the Tribe this season. Also, Junis entered this season having compiled a 5.63 ERA in his 6 games (5 starts) versus Cleveland. As for Indians starter Zach Plesac, he was very successful against the Royals in his most recent start. However, earlier this month he faced KC at Kauffman Stadium and struggled. In fact, Plesac has ugly numbers in recent outings away from home. In Plesac's last two road starts he has been rocked for 10 runs (9 earned) in just 6 and 1/3 innings. After last night's unreal waste of scoring opportunities, these two teams make up for it tonight. 10* OVER the total in Kansas City 

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #906 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (+) vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:05 PM ET - The home team has won 14 of the last 17 meetings between these teams. That includes the Phillies having won 5 in a row at home over the Braves including a 3-game sweep at Citizens Bank Park earlier this season. Mike Soroka has been great for the Braves this season but he has allowed 4 or more earned runs in 2 of his last 3 outings including getting pounded by the Phillies. As for Philadelphia's Jake Arrieta, he has actually been pitching better since the announcement that he has a bone spur in his right elbow. It is almost as if it has made him focus even more on the location of his pitches and the results have been strong. No he is not going to pile up the strikeouts but he does do a good job of inducing weaker contact through the air or getting hitters to keep the ball on the ground. Look for that to continue here for Arrieta against a slumping Braves team. Atlanta has lost 6 of its last 8 games. Also, the highly regarded Braves lineup has actually been held to 4 or less runs in 12 of its last 15 games! As for the Phillies, they have won 5 of their last 6 games. Both teams were off yesterday and Philly is 9-3 this season after a day off while Atlanta is a poor 3-11 this season when playing after an off day! 10* PHILADELPHIA

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees @ 7:10 ET - The last 3 meetings between these teams have all gone over the total and yes, I am aware that the last two games in this streak were both played in that crazy London series where the ball park played out like a band box with plenty of homers. However, based on this pitching match-up as well as favorable weather expected at hitter-friendly Fenway Park Thursday, I expect another wild, high-scoring game between these huge rivals. The Yankees have scored an average of 8 runs per game in their last 7 games against Boston. The Red Sox have averaged 7.4 runs per game in their last 14 games as a host to the Bronx Bombers. As for the pitching match-up here, Masahiro Tanaka has made 6 starts against the Red Sox since the beginning of last season and he has compiled an 8.39 ERA in those outings. Rick Porcello has faced the Yankees twice this season and he has a 19.80 ERA in those two outings. Also, Porcello enters this start with a horrible 10.57 ERA in his last 5 starts. The over is a perfect 4-0 in his last 4 starts. Tanaka enters this start with with the over having gone 4-1 in his last 5 starts. The Yankees are off another wild 10-7 win yesterday and the over is now a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 games. 10* OVER the total in Boston

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #955 Thursday 10* Top Play Colorado Rockies +1.5 runs (+135) @ Washington Nationals @ 4:05 ET - I look for Jeff Hoffman to come up with a big start here as he has the "stuff" in terms of his pitches to be successful. Hoffman will be highly motivated as he gets another chance in the rotation after being demoted a month ago. One of the keys helping him in this match-up is that the Nationals haven't exactly been knocking the cover off the ball of late. This is particularly true when off a win. Washington won yesterday's second game of the double-header 2-0 and have now averaged just 2.3 runs per game the last 6 times they have entered a contest off a win. Additionally, I know Max Scherzer is a great pitcher but the Nats right-hander is returning from a back injury. After the time off he may not be as sharp as usual. Also, Scherzer may not pitch as deep as usual in this game. That means the bullpens could play a role here. Don't be fooled by the Rockies overall bullpen numbers as those are impacted by where they play their home games. In fact, Colorado's bullpen has a 3.59 ERA in road games this season. By comparison, the Washington bullpen has a 6.15 ERA in home games this season. You can clearly see which team holds the edge in that department. As for the Rockies quiet sticks so far in this series, they entered this series having scored 13 runs in the final two games of their series in the Bronx and I am expect them to get back on track in the finale of this series. That said, I like the "plus plus" value here as we get the Rockies on the run line +1.5 runs and in the +135 range price-wise. 10* COLORADO Run Line +1.5 runs

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #923 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Baltimore Orioles @ 3:40 ET - John Means was the lone Orioles representative at the All Star game and certainly he is a solid pitcher overall. However, the lefty is facing a Diamondbacks team that ranks #1 in the National League for slugging percentage against left-handed pitching this season! Also, though Means is off a strong start versus Boston, he only registered one strikeout in six innings. Prior to that one Means gave up 6 earned runs in 6 innings in a start against Tampa Bay that saw him allow 3 homers. I would not be surprised to see him struggle some in this start at Arizona given how well they've hit southpaws this season. Also, it is certainly noteworthy that he has averaged only 5.5 innings per start this year. That means we should see a good amount of Orioles bullpen in this one and their team ERA for the bullpen ranks dead last in the American League. As for Diamondbacks starter Taylor Clarke, he had a 7.22 ERA in his 7 AAA starts this year in the minors. That said, it should not come as a surprise that he has mostly struggled at the MLB level and has a 6.50 ERA in his 11 appearances (10 starts) with the Dbacks. I know that the Orioles season record is ugly of course but they have been swinging the bats much better of late. In fact, Baltimore ranks #2 out of all 30 teams with a .571 slugging percentage the last 7 days. The Orioles have now won 4 of their last 6 games and scored an average of 7 runs per game in the process. You can see why I am expecting plenty of runs from both teams in this one. Also, Clarke has averaged just 3 and 2/3 innings per start his last 8 starts and that means the Diamondbacks pen (a mediocre one) will be asked to do too much in this one. 10* OVER the total in Arizona

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #921 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phllies Run Line -1.5 runs @ Detroit Tigers @ 1:10 ET - After last night's marathon 15-inning win, the Phillies surge continues while the Tigers struggles continue. Incredibly, Detroit is now 1-15 this season when they are a home dog in a range of +125 to +175. Of course I am not going to lay the big price with the Phillies on the money line though. I don't lay big prices. Where I feel we have great value here is that we can take Philadelphia on the run line (-1.5 runs) at even money (or even plus money in some spots) as of early Wednesday morning. The Tigers went 5-20 in June and also are now 3-14 in the month of July. That means Detroit has now lost 34 of their last 42 games! The Tigers have Jordan Zimmermann on the mound for this one. He is having a nightmare month. In July, Zimmermann is 0-2 with a 16.36 ERA in his 3 starts. The right-hander has allowed 6 or more earned runs in each start despite never making it out of the 5th inning. The Phillies start Vince Velasquez here and certainly he has been inconsistent this season. However, he has good stuff and has struck out 25 in his last 21 and 1/3 innings. Historically Velasquez has proven capable of dominating weaker lineups and certainly the downtrodden Tigers fall into that category. Look for the Phillies to win this one in a road rout. The Phils have won 4 of their last 5 and momentum is starting to build again for the Phillies. 10* PHILADELPHIA Run Line -1.5 runs

Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #974 Tuesday 10* Top Play Atlanta Braves Run Line -1.5 runs vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:20 ET - The Royals only have 15 road wins this season. No team in baseball has fewer road wins than Kansas City! Also, KC has 64 total losses on the season and 47 of them have come by 2 or more runs. Of the Braves 60 wins this season 42 have come by a margin of 2 or more runs. Yes, Atlanta is a huge favorite on the money line in this game and I would never lay that price. However, there is great value with the Braves on the run line. At -1.5 runs, Atlanta is available at a pick'em price. As you can see, per the above an Atlanta win is likely and the odds also strongly favor that said win comes by 2 or more runs. Both teams are starting southpaws in this game and that also holds significance here. Kansas City is dead last in the AL for slugging percentage against lefties. As for the Braves, they rank a solid 3rd in the NL for slugging percentage against left-handed pitching. This situation strongly favors the Braves with Dallas Keuchel over the Royals with Danny Duffy. Keuchel fell apart in the 6th inning against Milwaukee in his most recent start but, previous to that, the Braves southpaw allowed 2 or less runs while going at least 7 innings in each of his 3 prior games. As for the Royals Duffy, he has a 6.75 ERA in his past two starts and he faced a pair of teams not nearly as strong as the NL East leading Braves. Also, Duffy will be making his first road start this month and he has a 6.88 ERA in his last 3 starts away from home. All signs are pointing to a home blowout in this one as the Braves also have the stronger bullpen. 10* ATLANTA Run Line -1.5 runs

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:10 ET - This total opened up at an 8.5 and has dropped to a 7.5 as of very early game day morning. This is offering superb line value with the over. Boston's Chris Sale is off a great start versus the Blue Jays. However, in his 4 prior starts he allowed 19 runs (18 earned) on 29 hits (including 6 homers) in 21 and 1/3 innings. Keep in mind, we're dealing with a very low total here considering this an American League match-up. No pitchers batting in this one and last night both teams enjoyed success against the opposing bullpens as well. Tampa Bay's bullpen has great numbers on the season but last night's 9-4 loss was the 5th time in the last 7 games that the Rays allowed 5 or more runs. The Red Sox bullpen has been a major disappointment this season and they now have a 4.60 ERA on the year which ranks them in the bottom half of the majors. The Boston sticks have averaged scoring 7.4 runs per game in their last 20 road games. Again, this total is only 7.5 so you can really see the value as the Red Sox also have hitters whom have enjoyed plenty of success against the Rays Yonny Chirinos. Boston is the #1 hitting team in the majors against right-handed pitching this season. Also, Chirinos did get the better of the Red Sox at Fenway Park earlier this season and that means it is payback time for a red hot Boston lineup. I respect both these starting pitchers but Sale has averaged only 5 and 1/3 innings in his last 5 starts and Chirinos has pitched 6 or less innings in 13 of his last 14 starts so we're likely to see substantial bullpen work in this one too. The Rays pen couldn't get the Red Sox to hit balls on the ground last night and that is an issue. Look for another big night for the sticks at Tropicana Field. 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay

Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #919 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs Miami Marlins @ 8:10 ET - The Marlins are off a shutout loss yesterday and it got ugly as their beleaguered bullpen faltered again in the 9-0 defeat. Miami has one of the worst bullpens in the majors and the White Sox bullpen is truly not much better. Considering that, as well as the fact that both starting pitchers are likely to struggle here, I am looking for double digits in runs scored in this one. Chicago's Ivan Nova is 0-2 with an 8.44 ERA in his last two starts. Miami's Trevor Richards is 0-2 with a 6.30 ERA in his last two starts. Richards has been struggling for 4 straight starts as he has allowed 16 earned runs in 20 innings during this span. The White Sox bats will be ready to get going at home after struggling in the final two games of their series at Tropicana Field. Chicago had averaged a dozen hits per game in their 3 games previous to struggling and scoring just 2 runs in each of the weekend games at Tampa. In terms of production at home, the White Sox sticks have averaged 10 hits per game in their last 11 games as a host. The over is a perfect 4-0 this season in Marlins road games where their money line ranges from -125 to +125. The over is 3-1 in Chicago's games against NL East opponents this season. Also, in the 2nd half of this season, the over is 3-1 in White Sox games against teams with a losing record. While neither lineup is overly imposing, it is sub-par pitching that should key an easy over in this one. 10* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #911 Monday 10* Top Play Boston Red Sox Money Line (-) @ Tampa Bay Rays @ 7:10 ET - IMPORTANT: Select ACTION rather than listed pitchers when making this wager. The expected starting pitching match-up is Eduardo Rodriguez for the Red Sox and Jalen Beeks for the Rays but Tampa Bay is known for switching things up because they use "openers" as starters from time to time. No matter what happens with the starting pitching match-up here Beeks is expected to get the bulk of the innings for TB in this one and I expect him to get rocked by an angry Boston team. The Red Sox got shutout 5-0 at lowly Baltimore yesterday and now somebody has to pay the price for that ugly loss. That somebody will be the Rays and yet, because this game is at Tropicana Field, we've got a very favorable line to work with. Keep in mind Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez is pitching very well and has allowed 2 earned runs or less in each of his last 4 starts. He did not face a bunch of lowly opponents either as two of those starts were against the Yankees and Dodgers. Rodriguez was particularly dominant against LA as he struck out 10 in 7 innings. Yes he has had struggles at Tampa Bay in the past but in typical contrarian fashion I am going with him here. The fact is that his current form is exceptional. Also, Rodriguez should hold the edge over a slumping Rays lineup. Yes they scored 4 runs yesterday but it all came on one swing of the bat (a grand slam). Other than that, TB sticks couldn't produce another run yesterday and the Rays have scored an average of just 2.8 runs per game in their last 8 games. Tampa's Beeks has been worse at home and in night games this season. He also had a 5.09 ERA in night games last season too. Unlike the Rays sticks, the Boston sticks have been hot. Prior to yesterday's shutout loss, the Red Sox had averaged 7.7 runs per game in their 18 previous road games. You can see why I am forecasting a road rout here regardless of which starting pitchers are used. 10* BOSTON

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #964 Sunday 10* Top Play Arizona Diamondbacks (+) vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 4:10 ET - I have plenty of respect for the Brewers Brandon Woodruff but this is too much home dog value to pass up on with Alex Young and Arizona. The Diamondbacks let last night's game slip away and I expect them to respond this afternoon. Young is a very tough lefty and the Milwaukee lineup has no experience against the rookie southpaw. Young is 3-0 with a 0.96 ERA in 4 games (3 starts) at the MLB level and opponents are hitting just .100 against him. Also, having a southpaw on the mound against the Brewers best hitter, Christian Yelich, is also a big edge. As for Milwaukee's Woodruff, he had a great May but, keep in mind he had a 5.47 ERA in April and a 4.78 ERA in June. He is 9-0 at home this season but 2-3 on the road and this looks like the perfect spot to fade him. Prior to last night's win for the Brewers, they were 5-9 in their last 14 games while the Diamondbacks entered last night's game 8-2 in their last 10 home games. Milwaukee is 2-6 this season as a road favorite of -125 to -175 while Arizona is 3-1 this season as a home underdog of +125 to +175. Considering the Brewers have struggled on the road quite often this season, the value is huge here with the Diamondbacks as a home dog. This is especially true when you consider how well Young has been pitching. 10* ARIZONA

Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #975 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers @ 2:10 ET - The Astros Lance Lynn has a low ERA versus the Astros this season but, keep in mind, he did allow 3 homers in his lone start at Houston this season. Also, though Lynn has a 3.15 ERA this month he has been hit at a .277 clip and all 3 of those starts were at home. This will be just the second road start for Lynn since mid-June! I expect the Astros to enjoy success at the plate here as this is their third shot at Lynn this season. Though he had success against them on July 11th, Lynn's other two starts this month saw him allow 7 earned runs on 17 hits in 13 innings. The issue for Houston today won't be their lineup, it will be the fact that their starting rotation has been impacted by injury. The Astros are expected to give Rogelio Armenteros his first-ever MLB start. The rookie right-hander has had some success in his first 3 MLB appearances out of the bullpen. However, lets not forget that Armenteros went 4-6 with a 5.05 ERA and .286 BAA at AAA Round Rock this season. Though one can say that is the Pacific Coast League and ERAs do tend to be higher than normal there, it does not change the fact that it is AAA hitters he is facing and plus Armenteros had much better numbers in the very same league last season. Don't be surprised if the Rangers give him a rough intro to what it is like to start at the MLB level and, of course, he'll face the extra pressure of trying to perform well for the home fans here. The first two games of this series stayed under the total but Texas entered this series on a 10-3 run to the over. Also the Astros and Rangers entered this series having gone 5-1 to the over in their 6 most recent meetings. With this total dropping from a 9.5 to a 9 we have even more value in this one. I'll take it! 10* OVER the total in Houston

Diamond Club Rout - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (+) @ Pittsburgh Pirates @ 7:05 ET - Zach Eflin has had a pair of rough starts in the month of July but lets not forget he has faced two of the top teams in the majors. Eflin was up against the Braves and Dodgers but now faces a sub-.500 Pirates team. Even at home this season Pittsburgh is only a .500 team and I like the underdog price here with a Philadelphia team that is building up strong momentum. The Phillies have now won 3 of their last 4 games after yesterday's 6-1 win over the Pirates. Also, the run has included huge comeback wins over the league-best Dodgers so the Philly clubhouse is simply a much different atmosphere than it was before this strong surge. Also, Eflin had a 3.34 ERA entering July so he is a much better pitcher than the way he is being priced here. Pittsburgh is starting Joe Musgrove in this one and the right-hander has had some better starts in recent weeks but he had a 4.87 ERA through mid-June. Also he has gone 4-7 in his 15 home starts this season. I am grabbing the underdog value with the surging Phillies and fading a Pirates team that is slumping and has now lost 6 of their past 7 games. Pittsburgh has scored an average of only 2.7 runs per game during this 7-game stretch. The Phillies, on the other hand, have averaged scoring 6 runs per game in their last 4. Hot versus not and an underdog price too. I'll take it! 10* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #919 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:05 ET - Tom Eshelman gets the start for the Orioles. He has limited MLB action and is likely to get crushed by a Red Sox lineup that is very powerful and will be fully focused after yesterday's embarrassing loss. This total is up near a dozen runs and many will look at this as being too high so, in typical contrarian fashion, I am backing the over and telling you this one should fly over the total. Eshelman truly has only had ONE good season in the minors. That was 2017. He certainly did not impress in 2015 or 2016. As for 2018 and 2019 he is a combined 4-18 with a 5.38 ERA. Keep in mind this is against MINOR league hitters and now he faces the Red Sox off an embarrassing loss. Eshelman is destined to get pounded but I also expect Boston's Rick Porcello to get pounded as well and that is why the play here is the over. The Orioles tend to score better when at home and have scored an average of 5.8 runs in their last 10 at Camden Yards. They'll take advantage of Porcello. The BoSox right-hander has a 5.97 ERA in road games this season and has been hit at a .297 clip away from home. Since the start of the 2017 season he has allowed 81 homers! Porcello had a 6.46 ERA last month and has a 7.71 ERA so far this month. As you can see he is not exactly improving as the season has gone on. Also, the Red Sox bullpen ERA ranks in the middle of the pack while the Orioles bullpen ERA ranks them dead last in the American League. A slugfest is likely here. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore

Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #953 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) @ Pittsburgh Pirates @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies Jake Arrieta is pitching through an injury (bone spur in elbow) but he is a veteran and knows how to pitch. In other words, even though he lost velocity after the third inning in his last start he still managed to mix up his pitches and keep a potent Nationals lineup off balance. Based on location of pitches and timing of pitches Arrieta had Washington hitting most everything on the ground and he allowed just 1 earned run in a solid 5 innings. I look for him to do the same against the Pirates Friday. A wounded Arrieta still rates a big edge over a healthy Jordan Lyles. The Pittsburgh right-hander has been struggling for an extended stretch as Lyles has a 10.13 ERA over his last 7 starts. Now he faces a Phillies lineup whose confidence is on the rise after they just went toe to toe with a Dodgers team that many rank as the best team in baseball. Philadelphia took 2 of the final 3 games by getting their big bats going and with a "never say die" attitude to earn the series split with Los Angeles. They should plenty of damage against a struggling Lyles here. Last season Arrieta had a 1.29 ERA against the Pirates and struck out 18 in 14 innings of work spanning his two starts. Lyles history against the Phillies is more dated but he has a 6.14 ERA in his last two starts against them. Philadelphia went 6-1 against the Pirates last season. Pittsburgh enters this game having lost 5 of their past 6 games. The Pirates are 9-15 this season when they enter a contest after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games. The Phillies are 7-3 in Arrieta's last 10 starts. Also, in the second half of this season, the Phils have won 3 of 4 games against teams with a losing record and they are offering great line value in this spot at a pick'em price against the slumping Pirates. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #979 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Colorado Rockies @ 7:05 ET - No team in MLB has scored more runs against left-handed pitching than the Rockies. Look for Colorado to get to JA Happ early and often in this one. Happ has been hit at a .294 clip in home games this season and has a 5.98 ERA at Yankee Stadium. Taking a look at the other side of this match-up, I am well aware of the fact that the Yankees do not have great numbers against left-handed pitching this season but they are facing a struggling southpaw in this one. The Rockies are starting Kyle Freeland and the lefty has gone 2-6 with a 7.39 ERA in his 13 starts this season. He has been particularly poor in night games as he is 1-5 with a 7.99 ERA in evening outings and it is going to be hot and steamy in the Bronx tonight. The Rockies enter this game having allowed an average of 11 runs per game in their last 6 games. Colorado did score 8 or more runs in 3 of those 6 games. The Yankees are coming off 3 straight wins against the Rays after losing the opener of a 4-game series. The Yanks averaged 6.3 runs per game in those 3 victories. This is a big total posted on this game but it is absolutely justified as these are two potent lineups and two starting pitchers likely to get rocked. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees