50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 210)

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 210 between the Hornets and Pacers. I just think we are getting big time value here on the OVER due to how awful these two teams just played offensively in their last game. Charlotte scored just 86 at home to the Nets and Indiana managed just 81 on the road at Toronto. Both teams did allow 115+ in those losses. Pacers score 110 ppg at home and Hornets allow that same number on the season. I think we see Indiana get to 120 and that means we need a mere 91 from Charlotte to cash. Give me the OVER 210! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 136.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 136.5 between Xavier and DePaul. These two teams played once already and combined for just 126 points, staying UNDER the mark of 139. Given how much both offenses struggled to score, especially inside, I see no reason to not take UNDER at this price. 

Also, Xavier is playing to a lot lower scoring games right now. Over the last month they have basically started 3 big men. That's bad for offense and great for defense. It also slows the game way down. Give me the UNDER 136.5! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 151.5) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 151.5 between Michigan State and Iowa. The Spartans have made a switch to a smaller lineup and the offense really responded well to the new look with 86 points on the road at Nebraska. I think there's a really good shot they put up at least 85 in this one. Iowa's defense is not good and it's really bad on the road. 

The one thing with the small ball lineup for the Spartans is that is does make them vulnerable inside on defense and Iowa has an absolute star in Garza. I think all we need is for the Hawks to hit 70 points for an easy cash. Give me the OVER 151.5! 

50* NBA NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 226) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 226 in Friday's NBA clash that has Boston visiting Minnesota. I think we are getting some value here with the OVER due to a couple big names sitting this out. Kemba Walker won't play for Boston and Karl-Anthony Towns is out for the Wolves. 

Celtics got more than enough offensive fire-power to score a bunch against this awful Minnesota defense. It's going to be a big struggle on that side of the ball for the Wolves with all the new pieces. 

I like the offensive weapons a little more after the moves. Not having Towns is huge, but I also think him not playing really makes it hard for Boston to show up thinking they need to play hard defensively to win this game. Give me the OVER 226! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 236) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 236 between Washington and Cleveland. No doubt this is a big number, but it's really not when you factor in the two teams that are playing. Wizards and Cavs are atrocious on the defensive end. Wizards combine their lack of defense with an uptempo offensive attack and I'm confident they control the tempo here on their home floor and they should be really looking to push it given the long layoff and fresh legs. 

I also think Cavs are a better offensive team with the addition of Drummond and will be a little more explosive offensively now that head coach Beilein is gone. The players simply didn't like him or his ways of coaching. They are going to want to show out now that he's gone to make him look even worse. Give me the OVER 236! 

40* NCAAB LATE NIGHT TOTAL SLAUGHTER (Under 135) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in Thursday's Pac-12 clash between UCLA and Utah. Unless you stay up late or follow the Pac-12 real close, chances are you aren't aware of how much better the Bruins are playing down the stretch. Most expected a smoother transition under first year head coach Mick Cronin, but it just didn't happen. 

Players have bought in. UCLA has won 7 of their last 9 and are quietly sitting just 1-game back of 1st place in the Pac-12. Their defense, as you would expect under Cronin, has gotten better and better. I think that's why there's so much value with the total here. UCLA has allowed under 60 points 5 times in their last 8 games. Utah only averages 63.6 ppg in Pac-12 play and a mere 58.8 ppg in their last 5. Give me the UNDER 135! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL SLAUGHTER (Under 134) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 134. These two teams played earlier this season and combined for just 118 points. Both teams shot poorly, but part of that for Baylor was they couldn't force turnovers. Oklahoma, who is really good at protecting the ball, only turned it over 8 times. Bears are also a team that likes to play slow, so if they aren't getting transition looks, they are eating up clock. 

Oklahoma only lost by 4 in that first meeting, so you have to believe the will go with a similar game-plan and hope their defense, which has been much better at home, can make a few more stops. Scoring on Baylor's defense won't be easy. Bears don't need to force turnovers to keep an opposing team in check. Give me the UNDER 134! 

50* NCAAB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 128.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 128.5 between Baylor and Texas. These two teams already played once this season at Baylor and the Bears won that contest 59-44 for a combined total of just 103 points. I just don't think it's going to be a whole lot different in the rematch. 

Note that Baylor has played two Big 12 teams twice so far this season and both times the second meeting was almost a mirror image of the first. Bears beat Iowa State 68-55 at home and then later won at ISU 67-53. They also beat Oklahoma State 75-68 on the road and then won 78-70 at home. 

I just don't know how Texas is going to be able to score, especially if Kai Jones and Jase Febres (both questionable) can't go. Keep in mind Baylor plays at the slowest tempo in the Big 12 and the Longhorns are 7th out of 10 in tempo. Give me the UNDER 128.5! 

50* NCAAB C-USA TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Over 133) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 133 in tonight's C-USA matchup that has North Texas visiting Middle Tennessee. The Mean Green are the most efficient offense in C-USA with offensive efficiency rating of 115.0. The next best is Louisiana Tech at 108.8. They are shooting 56% on 2-pointers, 42% from deep and 79% from the free throw line. They have scored 70 or more in 6 of their last 8 and should easily hit that mark against the Blue Raiders, who have allowed 80 or more in 4 of their last 6. 

As for Middle Tennessee's offense, they play at the 5th fastest tempo in the conference and are a much better 3-point shooting team than they are inside. Defending the 3-ball has been a struggle for North Texas, as they are 13th out of 14 in 3-pt % defense. Middle Tennessee is also 4th in free throw rate and Mean Green are 10th in defensive free throw rate. They just scored 83 at UTSA and are averaging 75.3 ppg at home. I could see both teams eclipsing 70 and all we need is for 67 each to cash a winner. Give me the OVER 133! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Under 138) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 138 between Texas Tech and Oklahoma. I think we are getting a great price on the total here because of how high scoring some of these last few games have been for the Red Raiders. Big part of that is their last 3 have come against Kentucky, West Virginia and Kansas. All of which rank in the Top 45 in offensive efficiency. 

The other big key is Tech has lost 3 of 4 and I believe we can count on them really locking in defensively at home in this one to get back on track. Oklahoma's offense has really slowed down in Big 12 play and in their last two road games they managed just 53 points at K-STate and 57 at Baylor. The only time they have scored more than 62 on the road in Big 12 play is at ISU, who is arguably the worst defense in the conference. Give me the UNDER 138!  

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 146.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 146.5 between Alabama and Tennessee. The Crimson Tide are going to put up points, especially at home. Alabama has a tempo rating of 75.9 in SEC play and the next best is South Carolina at 73. There's been just one SEC game out of 8 that they have failed to score at least 76 points and the fewest they have scored at home in conference play is 77. 

Thing is with the loss of Herb Jones the Tide are not nearly as strong defensively and simply must win shootouts. Tennessee is 3rd in the SEC in effective field goal percentage and come in having shot 48% from the field in their last 5. I'm confident the Vols can keep pace here and give us at least 70, which is all we should need to cash a winner. Give me the OVER 146.5. 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 131.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 131.5 in Monday's Big 12 showdown between Texas and Kansas. These two played to a combined score of just 123 a couple weeks ago and the total for that was 129. I think it says a lot that that game went under and yet we are seeing the total even higher in the rematch. 

I couldn't agree more. Kansas is a much better offensive team at home and while Texas' offense struggles on the road, I don't think they can do much worse than scoring 57 points on 40% shooting. Also, both teams shot awful from deep in that first meeting, going a combined 8 for 30 (26%). Considering both teams are shooting 35% from deep on the season, we should see a nice up tick in scoring from a few more 3's made. On top of that, KU was just 67% from the free throw line and Texas was 56%. Give me the OVER 131.5! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 139.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 139.5 in Saturday's Big 12 matchup that has ISU at Texas. Cyclones play at one of the fastest tempos in the Big 12 are the worst defensive team in the conference. A perfect recipe for a high-scoring game and I think there's value with the total here due to the fact that the Cyclones are coming off a very low scoring game at home against Baylor, where they managed just 53 points and combined for 120. 

It was the second time ISU has had to play Baylor in their first 7 conference games. They have also played games against two other great defensive teams in KU and Texas Tech. Their othre 3 games against TCU, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State all saw a combined score of 149 or more. Texas ranks in the bottom half of the league in both defensive efficiency and effective field goal defense. I see both teams easily scoring 70 points. Give me the OVER 139.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 222.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 222.5 between the Raptors and Pistons. I played and won on the OVER last night with Toronto in their game at Cleveland. I thought that total was way too low given how good the Raptors have been offensively and how bad the Cavs defense had been playing. It's basically the same story here. Since Toronto has got healthy their offense has been lights out. Pistons are giving up 118.4 ppg on 48% shooting in their last 5. Toronto will be on no rest, but I think that will impact them more on defense and actually adds value to the over. Give me the OVER 222.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (OVER 221.5)

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 221.5 between the Raptors and Cavs. With how good Toronto has been offensively of late and how bad Cleveland has been defensively, I don't know how you don't take a shot on this OVER at this price. 

Raptors have scored 110 or more in 7 of their last 8 games and 5 times during this stretch have scored 122 or more. If they hit that mark, we would only need Cleveland to chip in 100 to cash a winner. Cavs have allowed 7 of their last 9 opponents to shoot 51% or better from the field. They have also scored 106 or more in 6 of their last 7 and this isn't a great spot for Toronto to be shelling out a ton of effort on defense. Give me the OVER 221.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 222.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 222.5 in tonight's NBA matchup that has the Knicks hosting the Grizzlies. I think we are seeing a big overreaction with this total because of how much the UNDER has been hitting for both of these teams. UNDER is 7-1 in Memphis' last 8 games and 7-1 in New York's last 8 games. 

Why take the OVER? Both of these teams will be playing on no rest and I just don't see either team being all that locked in defensively. The Knicks especially, who have been downright awful defensively playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back. OVER is also 6-1 in the Grizzlies last 7 when playing on no rest. Give me the OVER 222.5! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 135) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 135 in Monday's Big Ten showdown between Iowa and Wisconsin. I just think this is too low a total to pass up a play on the OVER. The Hawkeyes aren't just the best offensive team in the Big Ten, they are No. 3 in the country in offensive efficiency.

Last time out they hosted a Rutgers team who in a lot of ways is similar to Wisconsin with how they like to ground out wins with their defense. That game ended with a 165 points, flying past the total of 138. Opposing teams are shooting lights out from 3 against the Badgers and there's simply no slowing down Luka Garza inside, so I see no reason not to expect Iowa to score close to their season average of 80.2 ppg (79.5 ppg in Big Ten). 

Iowa's fast pace forces teams to play a little faster than they would like and I think the Badgers will be able to get a lot of clean looks from deep, as they got guys 1-5 who can knock it down from 3. Give me the OVER 135! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 218.5)

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 218.5 in Monday's NBA contest that has Detroit hosting the Cavs. These two teams played a home-and-home earlier this month and both games saw a combined score of at least 227. 

Detroit is dealing with some injuries, but it's not slowed them down. Pistons are averaging 117.2 ppg in their last 5. They will be facing a Cleveland team that is playing no defense right now. Cavs have allowed each of their last 7 opponents to shoot 48% or better with 6 of those going for at least 51%. 

Detroits' defense hasn't been much better in their last two, giving up 125 to the Grizzlies at home and 121 to the Nets. You have to go back to Dec. 3rd to find the last time the Pistons held a team under 100 points. Give me the OVER 218.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (Over 224.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 224.5 in Saturday's big Western Conference matchup that has Utah facing off against Dallas. The Mavs are one of the most explosive offensive teams in the league and just got back one of their biggest offensive weapons in Porzingis. Dallas comes in having scored 120 or more in 4 of their last 5 games. 

Dallas is also vulnerable on defense and even more so right now with the recent loss of big man Dwight Powell. Utah is known for their defense, but they are winning games more with their offense this year. The Jazz come in having scored 118 or more in 6 straight games. I could see both teams scoring 120+ in this one and we likely need just one to cash a winner. Give me the OVER 224.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 230) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 230 in tonight's NBA action that has the Grizzlies visiting the Pistons. Memphis ran into a buzz-saw last time out at Boston scoring just 95 points. However, the fact that they got to 95 is impressive, given they had just 17 points in the 2nd quarter and only 19 in the 3rd quarter. 

Prior to this game the Grizzlies had scored 110 or more in 15 straight games. Defense is always going to be a problem for Memphis and Detroit comes in off a 127 outburst at home against a Kings team that was pushing the tempo. Pistons are averaging 117.8 ppg in their last 5. The return of Reggie Jackson is huge as it allows them to keep the pace up with him and Derrick Rose. Give me the OVER 230! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 228)

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 228 in tonight's NBA matchup between the Lakers and Nets. Since Kyrie Irving has returned from injury the Nets have gone just 1-4 with their only win at home against a Hawks team that was down their best player (Trae Young).

In their 4 losses they have allowed no fewer than 117 points and three of those they allowed the opposing team to shoot 50% or better. After going through the motions last night at the Knicks, I expect a much more aggressive LA offensive attack in this one. 

A big reason for that is Irving is back on the floor for Brooklyn, as I don't think there's a guy LeBron enjoys beating more than Irving after what he did to get out of Cleveland. I think the Lakers could score 130 with ease in this one. 

I also think Brooklyn will score here as we just aren't going to get anything close to a max effort defensively from LA playing on no rest in their 4th straight on the road, especially with a big game at Philly on deck Saturday. Give me the OVER 228! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 135.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 135.5 between Wake Forest and Clemson. We have seen the Demon Deacons get torched on several occasions in conference play, as they are giving up 78 ppg. Recently giving up 80 at home to Va Tech and 90 at Duke. 

Clemson is coming off a horrible shooting night at NC State, where they managed just 54 points on 38% shooting, which I think is playing into the favorable number here. Prior to that the Tigers had scored 79 or more in 3 straight. 

The other big thing here is tempo. Wake Forest is playing at the 2nd fastest tempo in the ACC, behind only Duke. I think Clemson will be just fine playing up tempo with how easy it's going to be for them to score. I think that pace will allow the Demon Deacons to contribute enough to push this well over the mark. Give me the OVER 135.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL SLAUGHTER (Under 221) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 221 in Monday's matchup between the 76ers and Nets. Since losing Embiid to injury Philadelphia has really slowed things down. In the 6 games without him they have a pace rating of just  95.42 which is 29th slowest in the league and well below their season average of 101.1. 

The offense without Embiid has been especially bad on the road, scoring just 91 at Dallas, 95 at Indiana and 90 at New York. It's why I'm not concerned at all about the fact that these two teams just combined for 223 points in their meeting last week at Philly. If anything the fact these two teams just played each other adds more value to the UNDER. Give me the UNDER 221! 

50* NCAAB PAC-12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 137) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 137 in Saturday's Pac-12 showdown between Stanford and USC. Stanford, Washington and USC are in a class all of their own in terms of defensive prowess in the Pac-12. The gap between them and the next best team is very noticable. 

Cardinal are No. 1 in defensive efficiency and No. 3 in effective field goal defense. USC is No. 3 in defensive efficiency and No.1 in effective field goal defense. This total is basically for both teams to score 70 and I have a hard time seeing either side get to 65.

UNDER is 30-15 in USC's last 45 conference games and 10-2 in their last 12 at home as a favorite of 6 or less. Give me the UNDER 137! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 225.5)

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 225.5 in tonight's NBA matchup between the Jazz and Pelicans. Really hard to not like the over when you look at just how good these two teams have been on the offensive side of the ball of late. 

Utah is averaging 122.0 ppg and shooting 52% from the field over their last 5 games, while the Pelicans are scoring 118.8 ppg in their last 5. New Orleans also averages 115.7 ppg at home and have scored 112 or more points in 9 of their last 10. 

Utah is perceived as a great defensive team, but the Jazz have a tendency to not show up on that side of the ball away from home. In their last two road games against the Wizards and Nets, they let both shoot 50% from the field. Give me the OVER 225.5! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL SLAUGHTER (Over 135.5) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 135.5 for tonight's C-USA clash between Marshall and Charlotte. I just think this total is way to low. Marshall is a team that likes to play fast and aren't afraid to light it up from deep. The Herd did manage to score just 50 in their last game at UAB, but the Blazers are one of the better defensive teams in the conference. 

Key here is just that whenever these two teams play it turns into an offensive game. In the last 8 meetings they have combined for no fewer than 159 points. Marshall simply has a way of making the 49ers play to their preferred uptempo style and I expect that trend to continue, especially with the game on the Herd's home floor. Give me the OVER 135.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 218) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 218 between the Nets and 76ers. The highest combined score in the 76ers last 3 games without Embiid is 207. They are clearly playing at a slower pace too, which is evident by the fact the Mavs only put up 109 points despite making 11 3-pointers and shooting 51% from the field. Nets are T-9th in defensive efficiency and opposing teams are only shooting 43.3% against them, which is the 3rd best mark in the league. Give me the UNDER 218! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 228.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 228.5 in Tuesday's NBA clash between the Suns and Hawks. I think there's come value here due to the fact that Phoenix is off a couple of lower-scoring games against the Magic and Hornets, who are also two of the slowest paced teams in the league. In their last game against Charlotte they shot 50% from the field but yet only had 100 because of the pace. Hawks managed just 86 in their last game, but that was with Trae Young sidelined and he's cleared to go for this one. Neither of these teams are great defensively and both can light it up offensively. Give me the OVER 228.5! 

50* NCAAB A-10 TOTAL PLAY OF THE MONTH (Over 136) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 136 as Davidson will host Richmond. The Spiders have really picked up the pace this season compared to last year and while it's early they are playing with the 3rd fastest tempo in the A-10. Davidson might not always play fast, but they are capable of speeding things up as they got the No. 4 ranked offense in the conference. 

Another big thing is that both of these teams can light you up from long distance. Both teams are shooting better than 35% from deep and rank among the tops in the country in percentage of shots from deep. Davidson's 3 conference games have seen an average score of 144.6 and the Wildcats are averaging 88.7 ppg at home. Give me the OVER 136! 

50* CLEMSON/LSU CHAMP GAME PLAY OF THE YEAR (UNDER 68.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 68.5. I was all over the UNDER in the Clemson/Ohio State semifinal matchup and I see this as a very similar matchup, yet we are getting almost a touchdown more to work with as that total was 62. 

I think the 16 days off between games is a big advantage for the defenses, especially when you factor in the two outstanding defensive coordinators that these two teams have. Not to mention the talent on the defensive side for both sides. 

Another thing that I think gets overlooked is the pressure of this game and how the nerves can play into the outcome. I think both teams will be cautious to make a mistake early and they really can't afford any letdowns to eclipse a total like this, as they have average more than 17 points a quarter to eclipse this mark. Give me the UNDER 68.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 218.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 218.5 in Sunday's NBA matchup between the Suns and Hornets. For starters, the average combined score in Phoenix' home games this season is 230.1 ppg, as they are scoring 115.3 ppg and giving up 114.8 ppg. 

Hornets allow 111 ppg and are giving up 112.4 ppg in their last 5, so we can expect to see Phoenix at least hit their average. Charlotte is coming off a game at Utah where they only scored 92, but that was with them scoring just 13 first quarter points. They averaged 26.3/quarter over the final 3. Hornets had also scored 104 or more in their previous 4 and if they simply get to 100 I think we cash this easy. Give me the OVER 218.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (Over 224) 

I'll take my chances here on the OVER 224 in Saturday's NBA showdown between the 76ers and Mavs. Even though Dallas is playing on no rest after last night's ugly loss at home to the Lakers, they should be ready to go here as the starters didn't have to play big minutes because of the lopsided score.

Note that Dallas shot a mere 40.6% from the field and still put up 114 points against LA. This team is just so explosive on offense and play at such a quick pace that more times than not they will find themselves in shootouts. 

76ers are without leading score Embiid, but his loss actually hurts them more defensively than it does offensively. Philadelphia shot 49% and put up 109 points against Boston without him in their last game and the Celtics are a way better defensive team than Dallas. Give me the OVER 224! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL SLAUGHTER (Over 146.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 146.5 between Iowa and Maryland. Hawkeyes are just built for high-scoring games, as they come in 5th in the country in offensive efficiency and 99th on defense. In Iowa's 4 Big Ten games the average score for those games has been 159.7, as they are averaging 79.7 ppg and giving up 80.0 ppg. 

Last time out they only scored 70 at Nebraska, but that's pretty impressive if you factor in they shot just 42% from the field and were a dreadful 4-33 (12%) from deep. They should shoot much better at home in this one, as they are shooting 48% from the field and 36% from deep at Carver this season. 

Maryland averages 74.8 ppg and have done so against a tough schedule. This will be only 7th time they have faced at eam outside the Top 85 in defensive efficiency. They have scored 80 or more in 4 of the 5 with the only exception being in a 74-55 blowout win over Fairfield. Give me the OVER 146.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 224) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 224 in tonight's matchup between Portland and Minnesota. If you look at the overall resume of these two teams the OVER might seem like the obvious play here. However, both teams are dealing with serious injuries and tough scheduling spots, which I think make the UNDER the clear choice. 

Portland is playing their 5th and final game of a brutal 5-game road trip and in their last 6 games rank a mere 23rd in pace of play at 97.2. As for Minnesota, they have really been a different team without Karl Anthony Towns. In the 11 games he's missed the Timberwolves have the 29th worst offensive rating and the best defensive rating. I just think given the circumstances there's a ton of value here. Give me the UNDER 224! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 216) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 216 in Thursday's big matchup between the 76ers and Celtics. I'm just not sure why the total is this high. I get the Celtics just gave up 129 points at home to the Spurs last night and will be on no rest, but I'm convinced that was more of a lack of effort than anything, as they had their eyes set on this matchup. 

On top of that, the 76ers won't have their best player, as Embiid is out with a dislocated finger. That's a massive blow for Philadelphia's offense. He's by far their best offensive threat and he was the main reason that the 76ers won in Boston earlier this season, as he scored 38 points on 12 of 21 shooting. 

Key here is that I do think those that will be playing for Philadelphia are going to give a max effort here with Embiid sidelined and that's going to come on the defensive end. Also, while I expect a much better effort from Boston, I do think they will be playing at a slower pace than normal with their tough schedule of late. Give me the UNDER 216! 

50* NCAAB AAC TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Over 140.5)

I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 140.5 in tonight's big matchup between Memphis and Wichita State. I just don't think the number here is anywhere close to high enough with the fire-power these two teams have on offense and the likely pace of play we are going to see. 

Memphis comes in playing at the 9th fastest tempo in the country. Tigers on average shoot the ball in 14.9 seconds, which is the 7th fastest mark. While Wichita State's defense has been great, opponents shots have gone up in 16.4 seconds which is 38th fastest. 

Also the Shockers defensive numbers have been greatly skewed by who they have played. Memphis is 68th in offensive efficiency. It will be the first team Wichita State will have faced that ranks in the Top 125 (9 of their 14 opponents have ranked outside the Top 200). 

Memphis also has great defensive numbers, but in their two games against good really good offensive teams they gave up 82 to Oregon and 78 to NC State. I think both teams hit 70 points no problem. Give me the OVER 140.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL DESTROYER (Over 215.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 215.5 between the Jazz and Knicks. I originally liked Utah at -11, but the line has gotten out of control and in turn see a lot more value on the OVER. Knicks played last night in LA and are giving up 120 ppg when playing on no rest this season (124.3 ppg if it's against a team with a winning record). 

Utah is known for their defense, but they are quietly transitioning into a more offensive team. Jazz are 11-1 in their last 12 games and in this stretch have scored 109 or more points in 9 of those games. I also don't see them being all that focused defensively against a bad Knicks team. Note that while New York did score just 87 in last night's loss to the Lakers, they had scored 112 or more in each of their previous 3 games. If they can simply get to 100 I think we cash this easy. Give me the OVER 215.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MONEYMAKER (Over 220.5)

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 220.5 between Boston and San Antonio. OVER has cashed in 11 of the Spurs last 15 games as they continue to show signs of progress offensively, while continuing to struggle on the defensive end. In the Spurs last 5 games they are scoring 120 ppg and giving up 112.4 ppg. 

Celtics are a good defensive team, but I don't think we see them play up to their potential on that side of the ball tonight, as they will have a hard time not holding back for tomorrow's huge division game against the 76ers. Also 4 of the last 5 meetings in the series have gone OVER, including a game earlier this season where they two combined for 250. Give me the OVER 220.5! 

40* NBA LATE NIGHT OVER/UNDER SLAUGHTER (Over 226) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 226 in tonight's late action between the Kings and Suns. No one has been playing at a faster pace in their last 3 games than Sacramento and the Suns have been a consistent Top 10 team all season in pace of play (3-points higher at home). I not only think these two teams eclipse the mark, but I think they fly past it. 

In the Kings last 5 games they are giving up 112.6 ppg and scoring 111.2 ppg. In the Suns last 5 they are scoring 115 ppg and giving up 115.2 ppg. Take that combined with the pace of play and both teams have a realistic shot of scoring 120 in this one. Give me the OVER 226! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL DESTROYER (Over 132)

I'll take my chances here with the Bulldogs and Ramblers going OVER the total of 132. UNDER has cashed in 3 straight and 7 of Loyola's last 9 games, which I think is playing into this small total. Drake can light it up, as they have scored 72 or more in 4 straight, eclipsing 80 in 3 of those. All 4 games saw a combined score of 152 or more. 

Last year both meetings between these two combined for at least 150, going off for 159 in the game at Drake. OVER is 7-0 in Drake's last 7 home games after a game that went OVER the total and 9-0 in their last 9 at home after allowing 75 or more in 3 straight games. Give me the OVER 132! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UNDER 220) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 220 in tonight's matchup that has Toronto hosting Portland. I just think the number here is way too high given the circumstances for both teams. For Toronto they just can't catch a break. Already down Siakam, Powell and Gasol, they are now going to be missing VanVleet. That's a big loss, as he's a big scorer for them right now and also a guy that gets people easy shots. 

Raptors have also slowed the pace way down with all these injuries. Since losing all those guys in that game at Detroit back on 12/18 their pace of play rating is a mere 24th and figures to drop even more without VanVleet. 

Blazers have been in a lot of high-scoring games of late, but this will be their 4th straight game on the road in a span of just 7 days, as they have had to go from New York, to Washington, to Miami to Toronto. They too are decimated with injuries and I think they will be happy slowing things down and playing at Toronto's new slow pace. Give me the UNDER 220! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 122.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 122.5 as Missouri hosts Tennessee in SEC play. I just don't know where the offense is going to come from in this one. The Vols offense has been a complete mess since they lost starting point guard Lamonte Turner. They made 13 3-pointers in their last game against LSU and still only managed 64 points. The game before they totaled a mere 46 at home against Wisconsin. 

Tennessee will be up against an elite Missouri defense here, as the Tigers are allowing just 56.8 ppg overall and a mere 50.7 ppg at home. As for Missouri's offense, they aren't very good either. Tigers are only averaging 67.3 ppg against opponents that allow 66.9 ppg, which is not good at all for a Power 5 team given the cupcakes they face in non-conference play. Only once in the Tigers last 8 games have they scored more than 66 and that was against Chicago State. Give me the UNDER 122.5! 

50* VIKINGS/SAINTS NFL SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 50.5)

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 50.5 in the big NFC Wild Card matchup between the Saints and Vikings. I get the Saints come into this game on an offensive tear, as they scored 34 or more in each of their last 4 games, but I just don't see them matching that success against a really good Vikings defense. At the same time, I don't think Minnesota's offense is going to have much success here and I actually think they are going to focus a lot more on running the ball to not only keep their defense fresh, but to keep Drew Brees off the field. Give me the UNDER 50.5! 

50* NFL PATS/TITANS VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 44.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 44.5 between the Titans and Patriots. I'm not anticipating this one being all that entertaining, as I think both offenses are going to have a miserable time moving the ball. Pats offense is broken and the Titans offense isn't good enough to exploit an elite NE defense on the road. I wouldn't be shocked if both teams failed to reach 20 points in this one. UNDER is 16-5 in Pats last 21 games off a loss. Give me the UNDER 44.5! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 154) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER in Saturday's Big 10 matchup between Iowa and Penn State. These are two explosive offensive teams. Iowa is 4th in the country in offensive rating and the Nittany Lions are in the Top 50. Penn State also plays at one of the fastest tempos and this thing will be like a track meet with how both like to get out in transition. 

Iowa has scored 77 or more in 4 of their last 5 and are averaging 80.8 ppg on the season. Penn State has scored no fewer than 73 in in their last 7 and are averaging 80.4 ppg. Neither team is all that great defensively, especially when they get matched up against better teams. Give me the OVER 154!

50* NCAAB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 138) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 138 between Temple and Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane are 289th in pace of play and should be able to dictate the tempo at home, especially with the Owls figuring to be a bit flat footed playing their second road game in a 4-day stretch. 

Both of these teams are also really strong on the defensive end. Temple is only giving up 61.9 ppg and just held UCF to a mere 58 points on the road in their last game. Tulsa is only giving up 65.4 ppg and holding teams to 39.5% shooting at home. Owls are a miserable 38.8% from the field in road games this season. Give me the UNDER 138! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 143) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 143 in Friday's Big Ten matchup that has Rutgers visiting Nebraska. I just think both teams are going to easily hit the 70-point mark and that makes it an easy play with a total of 143. Rutgers is 0-3 on the road and scoring just 66.3 ppg away from home. However, they should not have a hard time scoring more than that here. Nebraska is giving up 74.9 ppg and are getting owned inside, so the Knights are going to get a ton of easy looks at the rim to get them going. 

As for the Cornhuskers offense, they have been playing much better of late and Rutgers defense has been not been near as good on the road as it has at home. Nebraska put up 90 at Indiana and 70 at home against Purdue in their two early Big Ten games. I think they come real close to their 75 ppg average in this one. Give me the OVER 143! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 223.5)

I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 223.5 between the Celtics and Hawks. Atlanta will be getting back their best offensive player in Trae Young and their offensive net rating is 13.9 points higher with him on the floor compared to when he's not. Not to mention he also makes their defense worse. Atlanta just can't defend the pick and roll and Celtics are one of the best in the league at pick and roll offense. 

Other big key here is that because Boston is so much better than Atlanta, this is not a game where they are going to feel the need to lockdown defensively. The proof of that is in recent matchups. OVER has gone 6-2 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams including 4-0 in the last 4 games in Boston. Give me the OVER 223.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 209.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 209.5 as the Bulls host the Jazz on Thursday. Chicago has been great against bad teams this year, but are just 1-12 SU when playing a team with a winning record and just gave up 123 pontis on 55% shooting in a home loss to the Bucks. I just don't think their defense can keep up against Utah. 

Jazz are known as a defensive team, but they really clicking on offense right now. The addition of Jordan Clarkson has really lit a fire under them. They have scored 100 plus in 9 straight games and are averaging 112.6 ppg in their last 5. Bulls are also playing better offensively of late at 108.4 ppg in their last 5 and a big part of that is the emergence of rookie Coby WHite, who has scored 18+ in 3 of the last 4 and is shooting 61% from deep during this run. Give me the OVER 209.5! 

40* NCAAF CITRUS BOWL TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 58)

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 58 in the Citrus Bowl matchup between Alabama and Michigan. I just don't think either defense is going to be able to slow down the opposing offense in this one. Wolverines defense is built more to stop a power running game than it is the explosive passing game of the Crimson Tide and this is as bad an Alabama defense we have seen in quite some time. Crimson Tide are just decimated with injuries and players not playing on defense and this Michigan offense really improved over the course of the season. Both of these teams also like to play fast and I just think we are going to see a shootout on New Year's Day. Give me the OVER 58! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 220) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 220 in Tuesday's NBA showdown with the Nuggets and Rockets. I know James Harden may or may not play, but I don't think it will matter. If Harden plays the Rockets are going to put up points, as Houston is averaging 118.8 ppg at home. if he doesn't they still probably score a lot as they got more than enough weapons. 

Keep in mind the Nuggets come in averaging 116 ppg in their last 5 and are giving up 110.4 ppg during thsi stretch, so they have been in a lot of up tempo games of late. You also factor in both defenses probably not giving a max effort here on New Year's Eve and this thing should fly past the number. Give me the OVER 220! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 152) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 152 in Tuesday's Big East showdown between Providence and Georgetown. I just feel the books have really missed the mark in this one. I get the Hoyas are a strong offensive team and are averaging 81.8 ppg, but those numbers are definitely inflated due to the non-conference schedule. 

It won't be so easy, especially on the road against a strong defense like Providence, which is only giving up 59.6 ppg and holding teams to 38% shooting at home. Friars are also not the best offensive team, as they have scored 70 or fewer in 5 of their last 7 with the two exceptions coming against Stony Brook and Pepperdine. Give me the UNDER 152! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL SLAUGHTER (Under 136) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 136 in Tuesday's NCAAB matchup that has Clemson hosting Miami. I think we are getting value here on the total because Miami comes in averaging 78.6 ppg over their last, but that has more to do with who they have played during that stretch. 

It just isn't going to be that easy on the road against a conference foe, especially the likes of the Tigers who are only giving up 61.4 ppg on the season and just 57 ppg at home. Clemson just played a game at home against Yale that didn't even get to 100 as the two combined for 99. UNDER has cashed in 4 straight games for the Tigers and it's no surprise with how good they are on defense and how limited they are on offense. Give me the UNDER 136! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL SLAUGHTER (Over 142) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 142 between Davidson and Vanderbilt. Only 3 times all season has a Commodores came finished under this total. The only games that didn't is when they couldn't get their offense going and that won't be a problem here. Davidson plays small a lot and are vulnerable inside and Vanderbilt has the guys to take advantage of that. 

Both of these teams are very efficient offensively, as the Wildcats come in having hit 46% from the field and Vanderbilt is at 47.3%. Both can also light it up from deep, as Davidson averages 9 made 3-pointers and the Commodores average 10. I think this has the potential to hit 160. Give me the OVER 142! 

40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL SLAUGHTER (Over 45.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 45.5 in Sunday's game between Kansas City and Los Angeles. Chiefs offense hasn't went off in a while, but have been really close in a number of recent games. I think they are primed for a big showing against a deflated Chargers team that just wants this season to be over with. As for LA's offense, you know Rivers is going to go down swinging and while he did throw 4 picks in an earlier meeting with KC, he also had 353 passing yards. A lot has been made about the Chiefs defense. It's definitely improved, but they have also played their last 4 games against the Bears, Broncos, Patriots and Raiders, who are all struggling on offense. I think we see this thing get into the 50s. Give me the OVER 45.5! 

50* CFB PLAYOFFS SEMIFINAL PLAY OF THE YEAR (Under 64)

I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 64. Not to take anything away from these two offenses, I think the great offensive numbers for both teams are a result of the bad teams they faced in their conferences. You look at Clemson only scoring 24 against Texas A&M at home and Ohio State not producing at near the same level against the top teams in the Big 10. I just think both teams will have a much harder time moving the ball than the number suggests. 

40* NCAAF COTTON BOWL TOTAL DESTROYER (Under 60.5)

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 60.5 in Saturday's Cotton Bowl showdown between Memphis and Penn State. I think both offenses could struggle to play up to their potential. Penn State lost offensive coordinator Ricky Rahne (left to be new head coach at Old Dominion). Memphis lost head coach Mike Norvell (left to be new head coach at FSU). Norvell not only was the head coach but the offensive play caller. I also think both defenses are better than they get credit for. Penn State has an elite defensive front that can make the Tigers one dimensional and the Nittany Lions offense only averaged 23.9 ppg in their 7 games against a Power 5 opponent that finished .500 or better. While Memphis isn't a Power 5 team I think they are real close in terms of talent. Give me the UNDER 60.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 225) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 225 in Thursday's NBA matchup between Memphis and Oklahoma City. Since Ja Morant returned from injury the Grizzlies have been playing at a super fast pace and that combined with their lack of defense has led to the OVER cashing in 6 of their last 7 games. Thunder are also trending up offensively, as they are averaging 116.2 ppg in their last 5 a stretch that has seen an average combined score of 227.8 ppg. Give me the OVER 225! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 226.5)

I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 226.5 in tonight's game that has the Mavericks hosting the Spurs. Dallas should have Doncic back in the lineup and with him they should do whatever they please against a bad Spurs defense that is giving up 116.2 ppg. In fact, both teams could go off here. San Antonio is averaging 120.0 ppg in their last 5 and the Mavs are scoring 117.2 ppg on the season. Both have also brought the offense in division games. Spurs are averaging 121.2 ppg against division opponents and the Mavs are even better at 127.2 ppg. Give me the OVER 226.5! 

50* NBA XMAS DAY VEGAS SHARP TOP PLAY (Under 223) 

My money is on the UNDER 223 in the huge Christmas Day matchup between the Lakers and Clippers. These two teams are so good that their numbers can sometimes be misleading, especially on the defensive end. Because they have so much offensive talent they don't have to bring it defensively on a nightly basis. There's no concern here with them showing up on that side of the ball in this one. These two have played once already and only combined for 114 points and that was with the Clippers shooting 51% from the field and the two combining for 24 made 3-pointers. I just think a slower pace and a little more defensive intensity are going to keep this thing well below the mark. Give me the UNDER 223! 

40* NBA XMAS DAY TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 220) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 220 in the big Christmas Day showdown between the Bucks and 76ers. Not many teams have had much success slowing down Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee offense, but few teams have the size and athleticism that the 76ers bring to the table. I really think Philadelphia is going to be able to slow this game down and play more at their tempo at home. Not to mention these are two really good defensive teams. Bucks lead the league in defensive efficiency and the 76ers are sitting in 7th. UNDER is also 6-1 in Milwaukee's last 7 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 11-4-1 in the 76ers last 16 home games vs a team with a winning road record. Take the UNDER 220! 

40* NCAAF HAWAII BOWL TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 64) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 64 in the Hawaii Bowl between none other than Hawaii and BYU. These two teams actually just played last year in the middle of October in Provo. The Cougars won that game 49-23 for a combined of 72. 

These two offenses are even more potent this season. BYU comes in at 439.5 ypg (365 ypg in 2018) and Hawaii is averaging 469.7 ypg (420 ypg in 2018). These are also two offenses built on their passing attacks. Rainbow Warriors are 24th in passing compared to 71st in rushing. BYU is 6th in passing compared to 89th in rushing. 

OVER is 15-6 in Hawaii's last 21 non-conference games and 11-4 in their last 15 as an underdog. Give me the OVER 64! 

40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (OVER 41) 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 218.5) 

I'll once again take my chances here with the OVER in a game involving the Grizzlies. We should have cashed the OVER last night with Memphis and Cleveland, but the Grizzlies were a no show in the 4th quarter and Ja Morant was off with just 8 points. I fully expect Morant to bounce back and for this thing to fly past the total. OVER is still 4-1 in the Grizzlies last 5 and each of their last 6 have seen at last 220 points. OVER is also 2-0 since Fox returned for Memphis. Give me the OVER 218.5! 

40* LIBERTY/GA SOUTH CURE BOWL TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 57.5)

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 57.5 in Saturday's Cure Bowl that has Georgia Southern facing off against Liberty. I just think these two will eclipse 60 points without any problem. Both defenses are really bad and more importantly the weaknesses of both defenses play right into the strength of these two offenses. 

Liberty is a team that likes to air it out. The Flames finished 21st in the nation with 290.5 passing yards/game. That high-powered passing attack will be going up against a Georgia Southern defense that ranked 91st against the pass, giving up 240.6 ypg. Not to mention one that gave up 298 ypg and 8.9 yards/completion against the pass on the road. 

As for the Eagles, if you have watched them at all you know they are almost exclusive a run offense with that triple-option attack. Georgia Southern averaging 333.6 ypg and 260.8 ypg on the ground (8th). Liberty's defense is bad all around, but were 100th against the run, giving up 192.9 ypg. That too are much worse on the road, as they gave up 218 ypg and 5.2 ypg away from home. I think both teams score into the 30's. Give me the OVER 57.5! 

40* NFL BUCS/TEXANS TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 50) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 50 in Saturday's NFL game between the Bucs and Texans. At this point it’s almost automatic to lean OVER in any game involving the Buccaneers, as it’s cashed in 11 of their 14 games this season.

There’s even more reason to like the OVER when you factor in how these two teams match up against one another.

Houston has a very balanced offensive attack. Texans rank 7th in rushing (130.9 ypg) and 11th in passing (245.0 ypg). Key here is they will be forced to throw it against this Tampa defense, as the Bucs are allowing a league-low 73.3 rushing yards/game. The good news is Deshaun Watson should have no problem exploiting a TB defense that ranks 30th against the pass (276.8 ypg).

On the flip side of this, the Bucs offense is riding the arm of Jameis Winston for better or worse. It’s resulted in Tampa Bay ranking 28th in rushing (91.4) and 1st in passing (308.8 ypg). While interceptions continue to haunt Winston, he’s coming in having thrown for 914 yards and 8 touchdowns in his last two games. He should stay hot, as the Texans are 28th against the pass (266.1 ypg) and have had a lot more trouble defending the pass since J.J. Watt went down. Give me the OVER 50!

40* UTAH ST/KENT ST FRISCO BOWL MASSACRE (Over 67.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 67.5 in Friday's Frisco Bowl that has Utah State taking on Kent State. Both these teams are capable of scoring in bunches. Utah State is averaging 28.2 ppg and 425 ypg and have one of the best QB's in the country in Jordan Love. Kent State is scoring 27.4 ppg and finished off the year at 35.0 ppg in their last 3. 

50* VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 223)

I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 223 between the Grizzlies and Cavs. Memphis' is rolling offensively right now and pushing the pace while they are at it. Grizzlies have scored 110 or more points in 7 straight games. They have also allowed 111 or more in each of their last 4 and are giving up 115.4 ppg on the road. OVER has cashed in each of their last 4 games. 

Cavs aren't the best offensive team, but are scoring 109.6 ppg in their last 5 and should be able to score plenty here at home against a soft Memphis defense. Prior to their last game against Charlotte where the two combined for just 198 points, Cleveland had played 4 straight games with a combined score of 126 or more. Give me the OVER 223! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Under 234.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 234.5 in Thursday's big NBA showdown on TNT between the Rockets and Clippers. These big TNT games on Thursday are often some of the biggest bet NBA games of the week and the books definitely inflate the total to the OVER in these games. Which is what I think is happening here. 

These two teams have played twice already, so there's familiarity between the two, which favors the defense. They did combine for 141 points in their most recent meeting, but LA shot 52% and Houston shot 46%. I just don't think we are going to see that good of shooting in this one, as I expect max effort defensively. Not to mention the previous meeting this season only saw 195 points and the total for that game was 233.5. GIve me the UNDER 234.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 225) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 225 in Thursday's big NBA showdown on TNT between the Lakers and Bucks. These big TNT games on Thursday are often some of the biggest bet NBA games of the week and the books definitely inflate the total to the OVER in these games. Which is what I think is happening here. 

No question these two have a ton of star power and come in scoring at a high rate, but I'm expecting a playoff like atmosphere in this one and both of these teams can be really good defensively when they want to. In fact, Bucks are No.1 in the NBA in defensive efficiency and the Lakers are No. 3. Both are also going to be without some key players, as Bledsoe is a no go for Milwaukee and Kuzma is likely out. Anthony Davis is also likely playing here at less than 100%. Give me the UNDER 225! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 148) 

*Analysis Coming* 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 136.5) 

I'll take my chances with St. Mary's and Arizona State flying past the total of 136.5 in tonight's neutral site matchup in Phoenix. OVER is 6-1 in St. Mary's last 7 games as they continue to light it up from deep. The Gaels are No. 1 in the country in 3-point percentage, hitting 43.8% of their outside shots and average 9-made 3's a game. Arizona State has scored 70+ in four straight and just put up 79 last time out against Georgia. St Mary's defense has struggled of late. Last time out they let Cal shoot 50% and put 77 points. The game before they allowed 53.8% shooting an 78 points to Dayton on a neutral site. I just feel there's a really good chance both teams get to 70-points. Give me the OVER 136.5! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 218.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 218.5 in tonight's NBA matchup that has the Grizzlies visiting the Thunder. This is not your Grizzlies from the last decade. Memphis is pushing the pace behind rookie point guard Ja Morant, who has really been playing well. Grizzlies have posted two of their best offensive ratings in their last two games. Memphis loves to get out in transition and that's one area OKC is struggling. Thunder 30th in PPP allowed in transition. On the flip side the Grizzlies are not a good defensive team. They are giving up 114.5 ppg on the road nad while OKC's offense isn't great, they are averaging 112.7 ppg at home. Give me the OVER 218.5! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 130.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 130.5 as Cincinnati hosts Tennessee. Both of these teams are built around their defense and this is a huge game for both teams in trying to build up that postseason resume. Not to mention both teams are coming off a loss. Vols are only giving up 55.3 ppg and that's against teams that average 71.1 ppg. Cincy only averages 73.9 ppg. Bearcats are giving up 63.4 ppg and Tennessee only averages 68.6 ppg. I think there's a full 10-points of value with this total. Give me the UNDER 130.5! 

40* NBA LATE NIGHT TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 226.5)

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 226.5 in Tuesday's NBA matchup that has the Suns visiting the Clippers. These two teams played at Phoenix earlier this season and combined for 152 points with the two combining for 28 made 3-pointers and 58 made free throws. Suns will finally get back DeAndre Ayton from his 25-game suspension and he's a big add offensively. Devin Booker is questionable, but I think he could play here. 

Also, Phoenix played a grueling game last night at home against Portland, so don't expect a big defensive effort here. Offensively this team has scored at least 108 points in 10 straight games. Clippers are scoring 116.4 ppg at home and the Suns give up 113.6 ppg on the road. LA could also come out a bit flat defensively, as they just recently finished up a 6-game road trip and have a much bigger game on deck Thursday at home against the Rockets. Give me the OVER 226.5! 

50* NCAAB NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (OVER 153) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 153 between Oklahoma and Creighton. These two teams can both light up the scoreboard. Creighton comes in averaging 78.5 ppg on 48% shooting and those numbers jump up to 83 ppg and 50% from the field at home. The offense figures to get even strong as mid-year transfer Denzel Mahoney is expected to make his debut tonight. Mahoney average 19 ppg and shot 43% from 3 last year with SE Missouri State. 

Oklahoma is scoring 76.3 ppg and only once all season have they failed to hit the 70-point mark. They should have no problem hitting that mark against a soft Creighton defense that has given up 75+ in each of their 3 games so far against a Power 5 opponent. 

OVER is 4-0 in the Sooners last 4 road games and 7-0 away from home in the month of December over the last 3 seasons. Give me the OVER 153! 

50* COLTS/SAINTS MNF SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 46.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 46.5 between the Colts/Saints on Monday Night Football. New Orleans is rolling on the offensive side of the ball. While it was in a losing effort, the Saints put up 46 points and nearly 500 yards of offense against the 49ers last Sunday. They are now averaging 35.0 ppg in their last 4. They will be facing a Colts defense that has allowed 38 to the Bucs and 31 to the Titans in their last 2. Most recently they let Jameis Winston threw for 467 yards against them. 

As for the Colts offense, they should be able to hold their own in this game. New Orleans is not playing at the same level defensively as they did early in the year and they just suffered to massive injuries on that side of the ball, losing both Sheldon Rankins and Marcus Davenport to season-ending injuries. I think we could see these two eclipse this total by the 3rd quarter. Give me the OVER 46.5! 

40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL SLAUGHTER (Under 49)

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 49 in Sunday's game that has the Cowboys hosting the Rams. I just see way too much value here with the number, as Dallas' offense has really struggled to produce against quality defenses and this is not an easy matchup for Prescott. LA has been really good against both the run and the pass. They have held 4 of their last 5 opponents to 106 or fewer rushing yards and have not allowed more than 202 passing yards in 4 straight. 

Dallas' defense made Mitch Trubisky look like a MVP last week and I think that's definitely playing into this number. I just didn't think the Cowboys played with any heart in that game. It was almost like they were shell-shocked that Trubisky could do what he did. Goff was great at home last week against the Seahawks, but he's notoriously a much worse QB on the road. This number says shootout, but I'm calling for a defensive battle. Give me the UNDER 49! 

40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 47.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 47.5. The OVER has consistently hit in Tampa Bay games this year, going 10-3 with a strong 6-2 mark in their 8 games away from home.

A big reason for that is the Bucs high-powered passing attack, which comes in ranked 2nd in the at 298.2 ypg. One that should be on full display this Sunday even with star wide out Mike Evans not expected to play. That’s because Winston will be up against a Lions secondary that ranks 30th in the league against the pass, giving up 276.5 ypg.

Not to mention the ideal playing conditions in the dome. Note that Tampa has played two games in a dome this season. Both went over the total and the average combined score was 56 points.

One reason this total isn’t 50+ is because of the Lions offense and how bad it looked last week. Not to mention they are down to 3rd string QB David Blough. However, Blough hasn’t been all that bad given his first two starts have come against two pretty good defenses in the Bears and Vikings. He had 280 yards and 2 TD’s at home against Chicago and the Bucs come into this one ranked 31st against the pass, giving up 278.8 ypg.

I could see this one being something very similar to Tampa Bay’s last game with the Colts that ended up 38-35 with both teams eclipsing the 30-point mark. Either way I think they find a way to get to at least 48. Give me the OVER 47.5.!

50* NFL AFC WEST TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Over 46) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 46 in Sunday's AFC West matchup between the Broncos and Chiefs. I'm well aware that it's going to be snowing in KC before during and after the game. The betting public sees this and instantly wants to take the UNDER, but in reality the snow actually helps the offenses, as it's much harder to react on defense, as well as generate a pass rush. The biggest thing weather wise that hurts offense is wind and it's not suppose to be that windy. 

I just think this KC offense is ready to explode after being bottled up last week against the Patriots. With that said there's no shame in scoring 23 points on that NE defense, especially on the road and the Chiefs should have had a lot more. 

There's no question the KC defense has improved with each passing week, but it's far from elite and worse defenses have had success against Brady and the Pats here of late. I know they held the Broncos to just 6-points in the first meeting, but that was with Joe Flacco at quarterback. Drew Lock is a big upgrade over Flacco and he's going to generate some big plays. He's also likely to make a couple mistakes, which should lead to some quick scores for Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. Give me the OVER 46! 

40* NCAAB EARLY BIRD TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 137.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 137.5 in Saturday's big non-conference game that has Michigan hosting Oregon. The Wolverines are a really good offensive team and as is the case with most teams they are much better at home. Michigan is averaging 88.4 ppg at home and last time they played at the Crisler Center they scored 103 points against Iowa. Oregon comes in scoring 78.9 ppg and are scoring 76.8 ppg in their last 5. I just think both teams are going to hit at least 70 points and if they do we cash this thing easy. Give me the OVER 137.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (OVER 223.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 223.5 in Friday's matchup that has the Hawks hosting the Pacers. Atlanta is just a great team for the OVER, as they are capable of going off on the offensive side of the ball, but play absolutely no defense. Hawks are giving up 118.8 ppg on the season and opposing teams are shooting 48% against them. Indiana is a strong offensive team and while they can be really good defensively, I don't think we get a great effort on the defensive side of the ball in this one. Pacers are fresh off a max effort in a big upset win at home over Boston and two days prior to that hosted the Clippers. They have to go play this game at Atlanta and then head right back home for 3 more at home, so really easy for them to kinda take the night off defensively against a bad Hawks team. Give me the OVER 223.5! 

40* JETS/RAVENS TNF TOTAL NO-BRAINER (OVER 44.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 44.5 I get the defensive numbers have been decent for New York this season, but look at who they have played. Outside of their division opponents, they have played the Browns, Eagles, Cowboys, Jags, Giants, Redskins, Raiders and Bengals.

This is by far the best offensive they have faced. I know Lamar Jackson is nursing a quad injury, but he’s fully expected to play and I can’t imagine the Ravens sending him out there if they don’t feel he’s at or near 100%. I just don’t think the Jets will be able to slow this offense down and with Sam Darnold on the other side, I wouldn’t be shocked if Baltimore’s defense didn’t find the endzone in this one.

While Darnold could make some costly mistakes, he’s also very capable of guiding this Jets offense up and down the field. Much like New York’s defense will struggle to play well on just 3-days of rest, the same can be said for Baltimore. Not to mention this has the feel of a big flat spot for that Ravens defense, as they have really put it all on the line the last four weeks against the Texans, Rams, 49ers and Bills. Give me the OVER 44.5.

50* NBA ATLANTIC DIVISION TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 210.5) 

My money is on the UNDER 210.5 in Thursday's big showdown between the Celtics and 76ers. Both of these teams are trying to lay claim as the best team in the east and both are going to bring it. 76ers are not the same offensive team on the road as they are at home, while Boston is likely down one of their top scorers in Hayward. Both teams are also in some tough scheduling spots with not a lot of rest, so the pace should be even slower than it typically would. Give me the UNDER 210.5! 

40* NCAAF CHAMP SATURDAY TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 62.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 62.5. My biggest reason for liking the OVER is these two combined for 65 points in the first meeting with Oklahoma only scoring 10-points in the 1st half and Baylor getting shutout in the 2nd half. I think we see both teams score early and often the second time around. Keep in mind last year’s Big 12 title game against Texas saw 66 points and 945 total yards of offense.

I will admit I’m a lot more confident with Oklahoma’s offense putting up a big number. It was like once Jalen Hurts and Lincoln Riley figured out what Baylor was wanting to do on defense, there was no stopping them. Keep in mind they only punted once the entire game in that first meeting.

As for the Bears not scoring in the 2nd half, they just didn’t get a chance to get anything going. Baylor fumbled on their first possession of the 2nd half and went 3 and out on their next two possessions. There was 5:25 left in the 4th quarter and the Bears had run a mere 7 plays in the 2nd half. They still averaged a healthy 5.9 yards/play in that matchup. Give me the OVER 62.5!

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 139.5)

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 139.5 between Mississippi State and La Tech in Thursday's college hoops action. These are two really good offensive teams. The Bulldogs are averaging 80.4 ppg and have scored at least 72 in every game. In their two step up games against Creighton and Indiana, they combined for 154 and 163 points, giving up 80+ in both matchups. Mississippi State just put up 81 on the road at Coastal Carolina and are shooting 49.7% from the field on the season. I think both teams could hit 75 in this one. Give me the OVER 139.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 233)

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 233 in Thursday's NBA matchup between the 76ers and Wizards. Washington is just an ideal OVER team, as they like to push the pace and don't play any defense. Wizards are No. 1in the league in pace of play and No. 30 in defensive efficiency. With Thomas Bryant a no go for Washington, Wizards frontcourt is in big trouble here against Embiid. Note backup big man Ian Mahinmi is also out and Mortiz Wagner is questionable. I could see Philadelphia scoring 130+ in this one, but they likely only need to hit 120 for us to cash this one, as Washington is averaging 121.4 ppg at home. GIve me the OVER 233! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 144.5)

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 144.5 between BYU and Utah. The Cougars come in ranked 26th nationally in offensive efficiency and senior Yoeli Childs will make his debut after being suspended for the first 9 games. Childs averaged 21.2 ppg and 9.7 rpg last year. Utah can also score, as they are averaging 81.4 ppg on the season and 97.7 ppg at home. They have shot a ridiculous 59.3% from the field at home and 47.9% from deep. Give me the OVER 144.5! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (OVER 144.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 144.5 in Tuesday's Big 10/ACC matchup between Iowa and Syracuse. This is not your usual Orange powerhouse team. They just gave up 85 to Penn State and 86 to Oklahoma State. I think the defensive woes are going to be a lingering problem and Iowa is a team that not only loves to push the pace, but score the ball effectively. I also think they got the shooters to exploit the Cuse zone defense. I got both teams easily eclipsing 70 and this thing finishing closer to 155. Take the OVER 144.5! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 146.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 146.5 in Monday's ACC/Big Ten challenge matchup that has Miami visiting Illinois. The Fighting Illini have the looks of one of the most improved teams in the country and are absolutely on fire offensively to start out the new season. Illinois comes in averaging 88.3 ppg and that goes up to 93.3 ppg at home. They will be facing a Miami team that has not been able to stop any quality opponent from putting up a ton of points. Hurricanes allowed 87 to Louisville, 78 to Florida and 80 to UConn. All 3 of those teams shot 53% or better from the field. I would be shocked if Illinois didn't get 80 and that means we need just 70 from Miami to get us clear of the number. Give me the OVER 146.5! 

40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (OVER 47) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 47. This game has shootout written all over it and I think we are getting a great price here because of how bad the Rams offense looked in that blowout loss to the Ravens. While I do think LA's got some problems with their offense, they should have no trouble moving the ball here against a bad Cardinals defense. Arizona's giving up 30.6 ppg 417 ypg and 6.6 yards/play at home this season. Key here is I think Murray and the Cardinals offense can go score-for-score with the Rams. Give me the OVER 47! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 226.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER. The Clippers just put on a defensive clinic last night against the Mavs and have the looks of an elite defensive team when they want to be. I don't think we get that same effort on the defensive side of the ball in the second game of a back-to-back, especially against a bad Memphis team. Grizzlies are awful defensively and I could see the Clippers scoring 125 or more here. I think we get more than enough offense from Memphis at home to push this over. Give me the OVER 226.5! 

50* RAVENS/RAMS MNF SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 46.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Ravens and Rams eclipsing the total set by the books on Monday Night Football. LA has a solid defense, but there's just no slowing down Lamar Jackson and that Ravens offense. His ability to make something out of nothing is unreal and it's really deflating as a defense to do everything right and still give up the big play. Key here is I think the Rams are poised to go score-for-score with Baltimore. Goff is much better at home and will have his full compliment of weapons at his disposal with Cooks back from injury. Baltimore's defense is good but not great and I think they struggle to play well in this one. Give me the OVER 46.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 216.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 216.5. I was on the OVER and lost in Chicago's last game, as the Pistons were a complete no-show scoring just 89 points and shooting 34% from the field. I'm not buying that being a sign of the Bulls defense turning a corner. IT's also the second time this season Chicago has held an opponent under 100 points. 

Bulls aren't the best offense, but they are playing as fast as anyone right now and I don't think we get a max effort here from Miami on the defensive side in the first game of a back-to-back with a much bigger at Philly on deck tomorrow. I do think the Heat's offense has a big game. Miami has hit 50% or better from the field in 4 straight games and will have their way against this Bulls defense. Give me the OVER 216.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 227.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 227.5 in Thursday's TNT matchup that has the Bucks hosting the Blazers. Portland's offense figures to be in a world of hurt in this one, as star point guard Damian Lillard is out with a bad back. They got no choice here but to try and slow this game down, as they simply can't go score for score with the Bucks and expect to keep it close. As for Milwaukee, I think they too will be looking to play at a slower pace given they are in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and just finished up a 3-game road trip. Also, good chance this gets out of hand and I think blowouts are much more favorable to games staying under the mark. Give me the UNDER 227.5! 

50* NBA CENTRAL DIVISION TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 219)

I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER 219, as I think these two could easily get into the 230's. Chicago might be a bad team, but they got some playmakers on offense and love to push the pace. Bulls have played at a 107.6 pace in their last 5 games, which is the best mark in the league over that span. Chicago loves to attack in transition and the Pistons are one of the worst at defending in transition. Bulls also have a bad defense. Chicago is giving up 111.3 ppg and 115 over their last 5. Detroit is averaging 111.2 ppg over their last 5 and giving up 112 ppg. Give me the OVER 219! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 208) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 208. I just think we are going to see a very slow paced game and both of these teams are strong defensively. Magic play at one of the slowest paces in the league and the Raptors pace of play has been on the decline, largely because they haven't had Kyle Lowry in the lineup. He's still out. Toronto has gone 6 straight games holding opponents to 44% or worse from the field and are facing a Magic team that is only scoring 98.5 ppg on the road this season. These two played back on 10/28 and combined for just 199 and I wouldn't be surprised if they stayed below the 200 mark in this one. Give me the UNDER 208! 

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 41) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 41. I almost always lean to the OVER in these Thursday night games, as I just don’t think defenses can play up to their potential on just 3 days of rest. On top of that, I think we are getting a pretty decent number here with both of these teams coming off games in Week 10 where neither side scored 20 points.

Not only do I think both defenses will struggle with getting their bodies up to speed on just 3 days of rest, but I could see both defenses being a bit emotionally drained from really big games at home last week. No one was giving the Steelers a shot at beating the Rams at home and few believed in the Browns being able to beat the Bills. Both defenses had to give everything they had in those wins, which I think only adds to the likelihood that they struggle a bit on Thursday.

Also, history is on our side. Only once in the last 5 meetings have these two teams failed to reach 40 points. Last year they combined for 42 in Cleveland and 51 at Pittsburgh.

I think we could see Cleveland’s offense see an uptick in production now that Kareem Hunt is finally eligible. Hunt made his debut last week and rushed for 30 yards on just 4 attempts (7.5 yards/carry). He also had 7 receptions for 44 yards. Hunt was a difference maker with the Chiefs in his brief time in the league.

As for the Steelers offense, they are expected to get back running back James Conner, who has missed the last two weeks with a shoulder injury. Conner is a big upgrade over what the Steelers had to use without him. Give me the OVER 41!

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Under 140.5)

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 140.5 in tonight's big college hoops matchup between Oklahoma and Oregon State. Both of these teams are really strong on the defensive side of the ball. It's why the total is what it is when Oklahoma is averaging 78 ppg and Oregon State is scoring 83.5 ppg. UNDER is 13-3 in the Sooners last 16 non-conference games and 13-4 in the Beavers last 17 after scoring 75 or more in 2 straight games. Give me the UNDER 140.5! 

40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 51.5)

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 51.5, as I think this has the potential to be one of the highest scoring games of the season. OVER has cashed in 6 straight games for Tampa Bay with every single one of those game seeing at least 50 points. Bucs have allowed 30 or more points in 5 of their last 6. The only team they held under the mark is an awful Titans offense, who put up 27. Cardinals have allowed 28 or more in 3 of their last 4 and have scored 25 or more in 4 of their last 5. Give me the OVER 51.5!