9* NCAAF Wednesday MACtion NO-BRAINER: Kent St/Bowling Green OVER 55.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 55.5 in Wednesday's MAC matchup between Kent State and Bowling Green. I like these two teams to get into the 60s as I think both of these offenses are in store for big games.

Kent State's defense is awful. The Golden Flashes are giving up 31.6 ppg, 455 ypg and 6.3 yards/play. Those numbers are not skewed by a tough non-conference slate, as they are giving up 31.4 ppg, 460 ypg and the same 6.3 yards/play in conference games. The have allowed at least 27 points in each of their last 4 games and that includes games against some pretty average offenses in Miami (OH), Akron and Ball State. 

The key here is Kent State's "Flash Fast" run heavy offense should be able to get moving at warp speed in this one. Bowling Green is giving up 159 ypg and 4.5 yards/carry vs the run. Back in early October we saw a good Buffalo rushing attack put up 293 yards on the ground against them. 

Last time these two teams played at Bowling Green, the two combined for 86 points with a total of just 56.5. I'm not saying we get into the 80s, but I think there's enough value in the 50s to make a pretty strong play on this one. Give me the OVER 55.5! 

10* NCAAF Tuesday MACtion VEGAS INSIDER: Ohio/Miami (OH) OVER 50.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 50.5 in Tuesday's MAC matchup between Ohio and Miami (OH). These two teams combined for 68 points in the Bobcats 35-33 win over the RedHawks a season ago. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we saw a similar high-scoring game in the rematch, making this an easy play for me with a total in the low 50's. 

l just don't see Miami (OH) having an answer for Bobcats' quarterback Kurtis Rourke, who has put up sensational numbers in 2022. Rourke is averaging over 300 yards/game thru the air with a 21-4 TD-INT ratio and a stellar 9.0 yards/pass attempt. His ability to throw the ball plays right into the weakness of this RedHawks defense, which is just not good at creating havoc in the passing game. 

On the flip side of this, I like Miami's offense to also have a lot of success throwing the football in this game. The RedHawks just recently got back starting quarterback Brett Gabbert, who was hurt in their opener against Kentucky. Gabbert has been a little rusty in his first two starts back, but will be up against a Ohio defense that has struggled to get stops this season. The Bobcats are giving up 33.2 ppg, 483 ypg and 6.5 yards/play. They have been especially bad against the pass, allowing opposing QBs to complete 66.3% of their attempts with a 8.3 average per attempt. Give me the OVER 50.5! 

9* NFL Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Dolphins/Bears OVER 45.5

I'm going to take the OVER 45.5 in Sunday's Week 9 NFL matchup that has the Dolphins visiting the Bears. I'll be the first to admit that I didn't think I would be expecting a shootout in a game involving Chicago, but that just goes to show you how quickly things can change in the NFL. 

Simply put, this is not the same Bears offense that we saw struggling to just get first downs early in the season. It all stems from the improved play Chicago is getting out of second-year quarterback Justin Fields. 

To give you a better idea of what I'm talking about with Fields maturation this season, let's compare his last 4 games of the season vs his first 4 games. In his first 4 games Fields completed just 34 of 67 pass attempts, which is 50.1%. He had a 2-4 TD-INT ratio and was averaging just 36.8 rushing yards/game. In his last 4 games, Fields has completed 59 of 92 pass attempts, 64.1%, with a 5-2 TD-INT ratio and is averaging 69.3 rushing yards/game. 

In Chicago's last two games they have put up 33 points and 390 total yards at New England and 29 points and 371 yards against the Cowboys. Even the game before the Pats where they had that ugly 7-12 loss to the Commanders they put up 392 total yards of offense. 

In their last 3 games the Bears have eclipsed 200 rushing yards in each game and are averaging 240 yards/game during this stretch. I know Miami's run D is solid, but they did struggle to contain the legs of a similar mobile QB in Lamar Jackson, who rushed for 119 yards in a 42-38 win by Miami. 

The other thing I love here is that while the Bears offense is trending up, their defense is trending in the opposite direction. A couple weeks ago they traded away one of their better pass rushers in Robert Quinn, then a few days ago they traded away the heart and soul of their defense in linebacker Roquan Smith. 

Even with Smith on the field last Sunday, we saw Dallas really do whatever they wanted against this Bears defense. I could see Chicago having an even tougher time containing this high-powered Miami offense that ranks 3rd in the NFL behind only the Bills and Chiefs in yards/play.  

I just have a hard time seeing these two teams not combining for at least 50 points in this game, as I could easily see Miami scoring 30 and the Bears getting to at least 20. Give me the OVER 45.5! 

10* NFL Over/Under PLAY OF THE MONTH: Vikings/Commanders OVER 43.5

I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 43.5 between the Vikings and Commanders on Sunday. This to me is way too low a total for this matchup. I get Washington's offense hasn't been able to do much of late, scoring 17 or fewer points in 5 of their last 6 games. Thing is, those low offensive outputs have come against some pretty good defensive teams in the Colts, Packers, Titans, Cowboys and Eagles. Note that while they did only score 17 vs Tennessee, they had 342 passing yards in that game. 

Minnesota comes into this game at 6-1, but their early season success has all been a result of their high-powered offense. Not their defense. The Vikings come into this game scoring 24.7 ppg and have scored at least 23 points in all but one game (vs the Eagles). Their defense is not very good, giving up 383 yards/game and 6.2 yards/play. They are especially bad vs the pass, as opposing QBs are completing 68.9% of their attempts against them. 

Simply put, this is a game where I think both offenses will be able to move the football and put points on the scoreboard. I like both of these teams to at the very minimum eclipse the 20-point mark and that should be more than enough to push us past this low total. Give me the OVER 43.5! 

10* NCAAF - Friday Night Total NO-BRAINER: Oregon St/Washington UNDER 54.5

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 54.5 in Friday's Pac-12 matchup between Washington and Oregon State. I just don't see this being a shootout. I know Washington has played in a lot of high-scoring games, but this Oregon State defense really matches up well with what the Huskies like to do offensively.

Washington is all about attacking teams thru the air. They come in averaging 379 passing yards/game. Passing on this Oregon State defense is not easy. Opposing quarterbacks are completing just 55.6% of their attempts against the Beavers and that's against QBs that on average are completing 62.5% of their attempts. Mother Nature could also slow down the Huskies ariel attack, as there will be 15-20 mph with the real feel in the upper 30s. 

Oregon State on the other hand is going to establish the run and as long as they are within striking distance, I don't see them abandoning it. Beavers on average run 66 plays and 39 (59%) of those are runs. They are pretty good at it, averaging 5.0 yards/carry. I think they can move the chains on the ground, but I also think Washington's run defense is good enough to limit the explosive plays and create the negative plays to end drives. Give me the UNDER 54.5! 

9* NCAAF MACtion Total NO-BRAINER: Buffalo/Ohio OVER 58.5

I will take my chances with the OVER 58.5 in Tuesday's MACaction that has Buffalo visiting Ohio. I just don't think these two teams will have any problem getting to 60 points.

The Bulls are a perfect 4-0 in MAC play behind one of the leagues top offensive units. Buffalo comes in averaging 36.5 ppg and 413.5 ypg in their 4 conference games. That offense will be up against one of the worst defenses in the MAC in Ohio. For the season the Bobcats are allowing 34.4 ppg, 510 ypg and 6.9 yards/play. They are giving up 4.9 yards/carry vs the run, while opposing QBs are completing 69% and averaging 8.9 yards/attempt. 

The key here is I think Ohio's offense has the ability to go score-for-score with Buffalo in this one. The Bobcats aren't too far behind Buffalo's offense in league play. Ohio is averaging 34.0 ppg, 440 ypg and 7.0 yards/play in MAC play. They have been especially good this year on offense at home, scoring 44.8 ppg on 524 ypg and 7.8 yards/play. Give me the OVER 58.5! 

9* NFL Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Lions/Dolphins OVER 51

I'm going to take the OVER 51 in Sunday's early afternoon matchup that has the Dolphins visiting the Lions. To some this total might seem a bit high given what we saw out of these two offenses last week. Miami only managed to score 16-points at home against the Steelers, while Detroit managed just 6-points on the road against the Cowboys. It was a second straight awful showing for the Lions offense, which was shutout in it's previous game at New England. 

I believe it's actually created some decent value with the total in the low 50's, as I would be shocked if this game didn't get into the 60s. 

The big thing to note about the Lions recent struggles on offense is they have had to play the last 3 games without stud running back D'Andre Swift. Before his injury, Swift was arguably the best back in the league, as he rushed for 231 yards on just 27 attempts for a staggering 8.6 yards/carry. He's back healthy and ready to roll. 

They also lost stud wide out Amon-Ra St. Brown to a concussion in the 1st quarter of last week's game against the Cowboys. He's back practicing and should be cleared from concussion protocol any day. 

It all adds up to a get right game for the Lions offense, especially with how banged up the Dolphins are on the defensive side of the ball. The biggest problems for Miami coming in their secondary, where 6 of their 8 corners listed on the depth chart are either out or questionable. They also just lost starting safety Brandon Jones, whose led the team with 49 tackles, 11 more than the next best player on the team. 

Also worth noting that despite Swift missing 3 games for Detroit, the Lions still rank 7th in the NFL in rushing at 145.7 ypg. The only other team Miami has faced this season that ranks in the Top 10 in rushing was the Ravens back in Week 2 and Baltimore put up 38 points on the Dolphins. 

On the flip side of the ball, I think Tua wasn't quite himself in his first game back from injury last week against Pittsburgh. Tua should be in for a field day against a Lions secondary that has given up a ton of big plays in the passing games. Detroit ranks 31st in the NFL, giving up 8.0 yards per pass attempt. The only team worse is the Vikings, who allow 8.4. Note that Miami with Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson at quarterback torched that Minnesota secondary for 385 yards a couple weeks ago. Tyreek Hill had 12 catches for 177 yards and Jaylen Waddle had 6 for 129. 

One last thing that I think needs to be noted with this total is just how easily points have been put on the scoreboard in Detroit home games. In the Lions 3 home games this year they have combined for 73 points with the Eagles, 63 against the Commanders and 93 against the Seahawks. Give me the OVER 51! 

8* NFL Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR: Saints/Raiders OVER 49.5

I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER 49.5 in Sunday's game between the Raiders and Saints. I'm shocked this total isn't in the 50s. The Raiders have been a mess defensively all season, as they come in giving up 25.0 ppg, 367 ypg and 5.9 yards/play. Even the Broncos of all teams were able to put up 23 points and over 300 yards on them. Really the only game all season Russell Wilson has looked anything like the QB he was in Seattle. 

Andy Dalton isn't the long-term answer in New Orleans, but he's definitely given this Saints offense a lift over starter Jameis Winston. So much that NO is sticking with Dalton even though Winston could play if needed. Saints have scored at least 25 in each of their last 4 games and Dalton is coming off a 400+ yard performance last time out against the Cardinals. 

As good as the offense has been, the Saints defense has been equally as bad, which is why New Orleans is just 1-3 in their last 4. Saints have given up 28 or more in each of their last 4 games. They will be facing a Raiders offense that seems to be figuring things out. In their last 3 games, Las Vegas is averaging 33 ppg, 387.7 ypg and 6.5 yards/play. 

With perfect conditions inside the Caesars Superdome, I look for both offenses to move the ball at will and for this thing to fly past the number. Give me the OVER 49.5! 

9* NFL Thursday Night Football NO-BRAINER: OVER 46

I'll take my chances with the OVER 46 between the Ravens and Bucs. No one is going to be thinking OVER in this matchup. The UNDER is 6-1 in Tampa Bay games this season and the last thing we saw from the Bucs was them scoring just 3 points against the Panthers. UNDER has also cashed in 4 straight games for Baltimore. Everyone is going to be on the UNDER in this game, yet we have only seen this total get higher as we get closer to kickoff. The total opened at 43.5. 

I'll gladly side with the big money, as I was already leaning towards a higher scoring game. While it hasn't always been the case this year, these TNF games often end up with a few more points on the board because of how hard it is for these defenses to get right physically on just 3 days of rest. We saw it last week, when everyone was on the Cards/Saints UNDER at just 43 and that game ended up with 76 combined points. 

As far as this game is concerned, I feel pretty good about Baltimore's offense moving the football. Tampa Bay's run defense has been a weakness, which plays right into the strength of the Ravens offense. On top of that, the Bucs secondary is decimated. Starting safety Logan Ryan is on IR, stud safety Antoine Winfield has been ruled out, as has starting corner Carlton Davis and top backup corner Sean Murphy-Bunting. 

Maybe I'm putting too much faith into Tom Brady and what looks like a broken Tampa Bay offense, but I think the Bucs are going to bounce back in a big way from last week's pathetic showing against the Panthers. It's not like Tampa Bay didn't move the ball. Bucs only had one 3-and-out the entire game vs Carolina. 

The run game has been one of the worst performing units not just this season, but ever. Not saying they are going to go off, but they are facing a depleted front 7 of the Ravens, who are down nose tackle Michael Pierce and stud defensive end Calais Campbell. Baltimore secondary has also been exploitable this year. Opposing QBs are completing 67.3% of their attempts against them. Last week Jacoby Brissett completed 22 of 27 (81.5%). 

It's do or die for Brady and the Bucs offense. Give me the OVER 46! 

9* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR: Nets/Mavs OVER 225

I'll take my chances with the OVER 225 in Thursday's matchup between the Nets and Mavs. Given what we have seen out of Dallas offensively and the struggles Brooklyn is having on the defensive end I'm shocked this total isn't the 230s. 

The Mavs ranked No. 1 in the NBA in offensive efficiency, scoring 119.1 points per 100 possessions. They will be up against a Brooklyn defense that is 26th in the league in defensive efficiency, allowing 115.6 points per 100 possessions. The only other team Dallas has faced in the bottom 10 in defensive efficiency is the Grizzlies who are 29th at 116.6. The Mavs put up 137 points on Memphis. On top of all that, you have to wonder just how much juice the Brooklyn defense will have playing in the second leg of a back-to-back after an even bigger game last night at Milwaukee. 

I know the Mavs defense has played well, but I think it can be difficult to bring that energy defensively when you are scoring at such an easy clip on the other side. Brooklyn also has two of the best scorers in the game in Durant and Irving. If the Nets simply hit their season average of 110.0 ppg, I think this game flies by the number. Give me the OVER 225! 

10* NBA Over/Under PLAY OF THE MONTH: Knicks/Hornets OVER 224

I love the OVER 224 in Wednesday's matchup between the Knicks and Hornets. I'm shocked the total here isn't in the 230s. Both these teams are looking to play fast early on. Charlotte comes in ranked 3rd in the NBA in pace at 105.6 and New York is 12th at 101.9. Not only are these to pushing the tempo, they are two of the most efficient offensive teams. Charlotte ranks 3rd in offensive efficiency at 116.7 points per 100 possessions and the Knicks are 89th at 112.8 points per 100 possessions. Each of the Hornets 3 games have seen a combined score of 231 or more points, while the Knicks are seeing an average combined score of 226.7 points thru their first 3 games. Give me the OVER 224! 

9* NBA - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Pelicans/Jazz OVER 229.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 229.5 in Sunday's NBA matchup between the Pelicans and Jazz. New Orleans has been one of the best offensive teams in the early going. The Pelicans are No. 2 in the NBA in offensive efficiency, trailing only the Celtics. They are also No. 7 in the NBA in pace of play. This is not a huge surprise given they added the likes of Zion Williamson. The big surprise is what we have seen out of Utah in two games. The Jazz were expected to be in full on tank mode this season, yet they have come out and won their first two games, scoring 123 at home against the Nuggets and 132 on the road against the T-Wolves. Utah is No. 4 in the NBA in offensive efficiency and No. 13 in pace of play. Look for both teams to hit the 120 mark in this one. Give me the OVER 229.5! 

9* NFL Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR: Seahawks/Chargers OVER 50

I'm going to take my chances with the OVER 50 between the Seahawks and Chargers. I've had a lot of success with the OVER in Seattle games this season. I cashed in on the OVER 3 straight weeks when they combined for 50 against the Falcons, 93 against the Lions and 71 against the Saints. I also successfully avoided to taking the OVER last week in their 19-9 win over Arizona. 

Simply put, I'm not overreacting in the slightest to what this team was able to do last week against the Cardinals. Division games have a way of producing some strange results and more times than not because the two teams are so familiar with one another, they tend to be lower scoring. 

Nothing for me has changed in terms of how I view this Seattle team. I still think they have a very underrated offense and one of the worst defenses in the league. 

I give them little to no shot at slowing down this Chargers offense on Sunday. LA is coming into this game off a pretty bad offensive showing against the Broncos on Monday Night Football, as they managed just 19 points and 297 total yards. That's really not all that surprising when you look at how well that Denver defense has been playing. So much attention is being paid to the struggles of the offense with Russell Wilson, people are ignoring the fact that Denver has held 5 of their 6 opponents to 17 or fewer points. 

The one thing that has really caused Justin Herbert and the Chargers offense problems is when teams have been able to create pressure via the blitz. Seattle's one of the worst blitzing teams in the league. Herbert should have a field day in this game, regardless if Keenan Allen is back or not. 

On the flip side of the ball, I think this Seattle offense will be able to move the ball against a Chargers defense that is not the same without Joey Bosa on the field. LA is also atrocious against the run, giving up 5.6 yards/carry vs teams that on average get 4.7 yards/carry. Seattle comes in averaging 5.3 yards/carry vs teams that only give up 4.4 yards/carry. I think both teams have a legit shot to eclipse the 30-point mark in this game. Give me the OVER 50! 

9* NCAAF Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Pitt/Louisville OVER 55

I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER 55 in Saturday's ACC matchup between Louisville and Pittsburgh. I look for both of these offenses to be able to move the ball up and down the field. Louisville has scored 30+ points in each of their last 4 games. The Cardinals are averaging 36.0 ppg, 518 ypg and 6.7 yards/play at home this year. Pitt's defense has allowed at least 26 points in all 4 of their games this season vs Power 5 teams. 

The Panthers can also light up the scoreboard. Pitt is putting up 35.0 ppg, 431 ypg and 6.2 yards/play. Playing on the road has not hindered their offense, as they are scoring 34.0 ppg, putting up 419 ypg and averaging 6.8 yards/play away home this year. Louisville's defense is giving up just 22.3 ppg, but we have seen them struggle against the better offenses, giving up 31 to Syracuse, 35 to Florida State and 34 to Boston College. 

OVER has gone an impressive 20-7 in Pitt's last 27 games on Saturday, as the books just haven't been able to set the number right. OVER is also 9-2 in Pitt's last 11 after playing at home and a perfect 6-0 the last 3 seasons when Louisville is coming off a win by 17 or more. Give me the OVER 55! 

10* NFL - Thursday Night MAX UNIT Top Play: Saints/Cardinals OVER 43.5 

I love the OVER 44.5 on Thursday Night Football in Week 7, as we have the Saints visiting the Cardinals. There has been nearly no offense in these Thursday matchups the last two weeks. First it was the 12-9 OT win for the Colts against the Seahawks in Week 5. Then we saw the Commanders prevail 12-7 last week. I believe that is definitely playing into the number being much lower than it should be.  

I also think the total here is being impacted by what we saw last week with Arizona's offense in a 9-19 loss at Seattle. It's not so much they lost, but the fact that the Cardinals couldn't even reach double-figures against a Seattle defense that came into that game viewed as one of the worst defensive teams in the league.  

It is worth noting that Arizona did have multiple drives into Seahawks territory that resulted in no points. The offense also figures to get a HUGE boost this week with the return of DeAndre Hopkins. I also think the Saints defense is being way overvalued. New Orleans has not played well at all on that side of the ball the past few weeks. In their last 3 games the Saints are giving up 30.0 ppg, 362.7 ypg and 6.8 yards/play. 

I also think people are sleeping a bit on this Saints offense because it's Andy Dalton at quarterback. New Orleans has scored 25 or more in 3 straight games. Arizona is giving up a staggering 28.0 ppg, 395 ypg and 6.6 yards/play at home this season. Give me the OVER 43.5

8* NCAAF Thursday Night Total NO-BRAINER: Virginia/Ga Tech OVER 47

I'll take my chances with the OVER 47 in Thursday's ACC matchup that has Georgia Tech hosting Virginia. I just feel the total here is too low. It's hard to expect offense when you have two teams that have struggled to score. Georgia Tech is scoring just 17.3 ppg and Virginia is barely better at 17.8 ppg. One thing that gets overlooked with those scoring outputs is that both of these teams have faced a number of strong defensive teams to start the year. Virginia's opponents on average are only giving up 21.1 ppg and the Yellow Jackets' opponents are allowing 22.5 ppg. 

Virginia's defense is only giving up 24.8 ppg, but to me that is misleading. Their first 3 games were against Richmond, Illinois and Old Dominion. Fighting Illini are a good team, but are not a team that lights up the scoreboard. They did hold Syracuse to 22, but that was aided greatly by 4 Orange turnovers. In their last two games they have allowed 38 to Duke and 34 to Louisville. 

You also have to look at last year's meeting between these two teams. Neither defense had an answer for the opposing offense in a 48-40 Virginia win. The two combined for over 1,200 yards with both teams going for 240+ on the ground and 300+ thru the air. I don't think it's asking a lot for them to get to 50 in this one. Give me the OVER 47! 

8* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR: Wizards/Pacers UNDER 228

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 228 in Wednesday's season opener between the Wizards and Pacers. I think we are seeing a bit of an inflated total here, as people remember how bad this Indiana team was defensively to close out last year. The big reason for that was the loss of their best defensive player, Myles Turner. Having him back instantly makes them better on that side of the ball. As for the Wizards, they got some nice offensive pieces, but being better defensively is a huge priority for this team under head coach Wes Unseld Jr. The defensive numbers weren't great in Unseld's first year, but a lot of that had to do with injuries. Look for this one to stay under the mark. Give me the UNDER 2228.5!

9* NBA - Opening Night VEGAS INSIDER: 76ers/Celtics OVER 216

I don't think the total is near enough for this opening night matchup between the Celtics and 76ers. I'll gladly take my chances with these two going over 216. I just think after watching Boston make a run to the NBA Finals last year on the coattails of their defense, their defense is a bit overvalued coming into the 2022-23 season. That's because they are missing big man Robert Williams, who is the guy that made their defense so good. His ability to protect the rim, allowed the other guys to really close out aggressively on the 3-point shot. 

Not only are they missing him, but they are facing one of the most skilled big men in the league in Joel Embiid. I don't think Boston will have an answer for him. I also think James Harden could be in for a big bounce back season. Harden looks to be in the best shape he's been in years. Philly has two other guys who can light it up in Maxey and Harris. This should be one of the best offenses in the league. 

There's rumors that Boston will be looking to push the pace a little more and it's not like they don't have the guys who can excel in transition. They got two elite scorers in Tatum and Brown. I also think the addition of Brogdon will help the offense. I don't think Philly is a team they want to attack in the half court. Look for this to easily get into the 220s. Give me the OVER 216! 

8* NCAAF - Friday Night SHARP STAKE: Navy/SMU Over 56.5

I'm going to take my chances with the OVER 56.5 in Friday's AAC matchup between Navy and SMU. I'm always a little hesitant taking an OVER with an option team like Navy. You need them to be able to score or they just eat up too much clock and limit the number of possessions. 

I just think they are going to be able to get that run game going against what I have to think is a very deflated SMU team. The Mustangs just finished up a brutal 3 game stretch that saw them play at Maryland, home vs TCU and then @ UCF. Not only that, but they got the defending champs on deck with a home game against Cincinnati next week. I just have a hard time believing the players have been 100% bought in to preparing for this Navy option attack. 

Keep in mind we have seen SMU give up 160 or more rushing yards in 4 of their 5 games. The only team they held under that mark was Lamar. 

On the flip side of this, Navy's defense is really strong up front and are not an easy team to run against. However, they are vulnerable to strong passing attacks. SMU has one of the best passing offenses in the country, averaging 355 ypg and 7.8 yards/attempt. 

Mustangs have scored at least 28 in 6 straight meetings in the series. The last 3 times these teams have played at SMU, the two have combined for 106 (2016), 61 (2018) and 88 (2020) points. Give me the OVER 56.5! 

9* NCAAF Thursday Night NO-BRAINER: Baylor/W Virginia UNDER 55

I really like the UNDER 55 in Thursday's Big 12 showdown between Baylor and West Virginia. I think this total at the very least should be in the high 40's. I just don't see this developing into a shootout. 

I know West Virginia has looked good offensively. They are scoring 38.2 ppg and putting up 453 ypg. However, this will be their toughest challenge to date. Even after giving up 36 to Oklahoma, which was a bit misleading), they are still allowing just 20.6 ppg and 320 ypg vs teams who average 27.1 ppg and 361 ypg.

They have really been outstanding against the run and the Mountaineers ground game is down their most productive running back CJ Donaldson, who has rushed for 6.9 ypg and 6 TDs. I see a noticeable decline tp backups Tony Mathis (4.2 yards/carry) and Justin Johnson Jr. (4.7 ypg). 

I just have a hard time seeing WV's offense staying ahead of the chains and getting big pass plays when Baylor knows that's their only real threat to move the ball. 

On the other side of this, I do think the Mountaineers' defense will show up with a really big effort in this game. While I like Baylor's offense, they have looked a lot less sharp on the road (only had 289 total yards at BYU) and are going into a hostile environment at night. Bears are also an offense that seems to put together a lot of long drives. A couple games back against ISU they had 3 different scoring drives that went 10+ plays and ate up more than 5 minutes of the clock. 

Lastly, these two teams are both coming off of a bye week, which means they have had several extra days to prepare fo this game. More times than not that extra prep helps the defense. Give me the UNDER 55! 

8* MLB - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: UNDER 6.5

I'm going to roll the dice on the UNDER 6.5 in Game 1 of Tuesday's AL Divisional Series between the Mariners and Astros. You got Justin Verlander on the mound for Houston. Verlander finished 18-4 with a 1.75 ERA and 0.829 WHIP in 28 starts. He faced off against Seattle 6 times this season and was great in all but one bad outing at Seattle back in late May. In the other 5 starts he gave up a mere 5 ER in 36 1/3 innings. In his last 3 starts, he went at least 7 innings and gave up just 1 ER. 

Logan Gilbert will get the rock for Seattle. Gilbert went 13-6 with a 3.25 ERA and 1.180 WHIP in 32 starts. He was 8-1 with a 3.16 ERA in 18 road starts. He faced off against Houston 4 times and pitched well in all 4, going at least 6 innings and giving up 3 or fewer runs in each start. Not only is this a great starting pitching matchup, but both are great out of the bullpen. I also feel like their could be some rust for Houston's offense after the long layoff from the division series. Give me the UNDER 6.5! 

9* NFL Monday Night Football NO-BRAINER: Raiders/Chiefs OVER 51.5

I'm taking the OVER 51.5 in the Raiders/Chiefs game on Monday Night Football. I don't see these two teams having any problem eclipsing this number. The OVER has cashed in each of the last 4 meetings in this series. Last year they combined for 55 in Las Vegas and 57 in KC. The year before they combined for 72 and 66. 

In those 4 starts, Mahomes and the Chiefs offense are avering 39.0 ppg. Mahomes is averaging 338.0 passing yards/game and has thrown 11 TDs to 4 INTs. I don't see why this year will be any different. The Raiders have allowed at least 23 points in every game they have played this year, including 23 last week to that awful Broncos offense. KC comes into this game averaging 32.3 ppg vs teams that on average only give up 21.8 ppg. 

Key here is the Raiders should at the very least be able to keep this game respectable. The Chiefs defense, is much improved, but are much better against the run than they are the pass. Carr and that Raiders passing attack should be in store for a big day. I think there's a chance we could see both teams push the 30-point mark. Give me the OVER 51.5! 

9* NFL Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Bills/Steelers OVER 46

I'm going to take the OVER 46 between the Steelers and Bills on Sunday. I just think there's some hidden value with the OVER in this one. 

Some of the value I believe stems from the Steelers finally putting to bed the Mitchell Trubisky experiment. I'd be lying if I said I thought Trubisky was going to be as bad as he's been. Before getting benched in last week's loss to the Jets, Trubisky had just 2 TD passes on 116 attempts and was only averaging 5.6 yards/attempt. 

The biggest thing for me is he wasn't just struggling because he didn't have time to throw. He was missing wide open guys. Simply could not read an opposing defense. If his first look wasn't open chances of a completion for any kind of significant gain was extremely low. 

Simply put, whether he's ready or not, the offense can't be any worse with rookie Kenny Pickett and I'm a believer it's going to be better. I know Pickett came in and threw 3 picks against the Jets, but some of that was bad luck. Those were his only 3 incompletions, as he went 10 of 13 for 120 yards, which came to 9.2 yards/attempt. 

Little bit of a side note here, but George Pickens is a guy I think could really see his production go up with Pickett now at quarterback. In a single half of football, Pickett connected with Pickens 4 times for 71 yards. In 3.5 games with Trubisky, Pickens had 7 catches for 96 yards. 

Draft Kings has Picken's over/under receiving yards for this game set at 37.5. I can assure you I'll be on the OVER. I'm also strongly considering playing him as a any time TD scorer at +130 and OVER 17.5 for his longest reception. 

Back to the handicap on the total here. One of the reasons I like all those Pickens' props is I don't think this Steelers defense in it's current form will be able to contain this Bills offense. Pittsburgh is still without T.J. Watt and are just not the same defense without him on the field. Not only that, but you got injury concerns up and down the lineup on the defensive side of the ball. Stud defensive end Cam Heyward is question. Their second is also decimated. Starting corner Ahkello Witherspoon is doubtful. There other starting corner Cameron Sutton is questionable, as his both starting safeties Terrell Edmunds and Minkah Fitzpatrick. 

Bills are also dealing with a bunch of injuries on their defense, especially in the secondary where they are down both starting corner Tre'Davis White and safety Micah Hyde. 

This to me is also a real flat spot for the Buffalo defense. They just played their hearts out overcoming that big early deficit to the Ravens last week and have without a doubt their biggest game on the schedule looming next week at home against the Chiefs. I don't think they are going to be that sharp in this game. Give me the OVER 46. 

8* NFL Over/Under Total KNOCKOUT: Commanders/Titans OVER 42.5

I will take a shot on the OVER 42.5 in Sunday's non-conference matchup between the Titans and Commanders. While I certainly don't think Washington's offense is anything special, I do think that offense comes in a bit undervalued after their last two games, which saw them score just 8 points at home against the Eagles and 10 on the road against the Cowboys. 

You got to take into consideration just how good both Philadelphia and Dallas have been on the defensive side of the ball so far this year. The Cowboys rank 5th in the NFL in pass defense and are 3rd in the NFL in sacks. The Eagles are 7th vs the pass and 2nd in the league in sacks. 

Carson Wentz thru for just 308 yards combined in those two games. In the previous two games vs the Lions and Jaguars he threw for 300+ yards in each game with Washington scoring 28 and 27 points in those two contests. 

Tennessee ranks 28th vs the pass and are middle of the pack in the league in sacks. On the season the Titans are giving up 25.3 ppg, 392 ypg and 6.5 yards/play vs teams that on average are putting up 21.3 ppg, 358 ypg and 5.7 yards/play. 

On the flip side of this, Washington's defense isn't very good. The Commanders are giving up 26.8 ppg, 372 ypg and 6.2 yards/play. Yes they are facing a Titans team that is only scoring 18.8 ppg and averaging 309 ypg, but that's come against teams who on average are giving up just 19.0 ppg and 215 ypg. 

I think both teams will easily get into the 20s and I could see this thing being OVER the total midway thru the 3rd quarter. Give me the OVER 42.5! 

10* NCAAF - Late Night TOTAL OF THE MONTH: Arizona/Oregon OVER 69.5

I love the OVER 69.5 in Saturday's late night action out of the Pac-12 between No. 12 Oregon and Arizona. I'm not so sure the books can set a total high enough for this one. If it wasn't for the fact that the Ducks scored just 3-points in that ugly opening loss to Georgia, I think it would be at the very least in the mid 70s. 

In the 4 games since getting completely shutdown by the defending champs, Oregon has put up 70 points and 604 total yards against Eastern Washington, 41 points and 439 yards on BYU, 44 points and 624 yards on Washington State (Cougars have allowed 20 or fewer in every other game) and 45 points and 515 yards in last week's blowout win over Stanford. 

It feels like anything less than 40 points against this Arizona defense would be a disappointment. In the Wildcats two conference games, they have allowed 49 points to Cal and 20 points to Colorado. In Cal's 3 other games vs a FBS opponent they have scored a combined 46 points. The Buffaloes 20-points they scored on the Wildcats was a season-high. Arizona is giving up 31.2 ppg vs teams who on average score 24.9 ppg. 

They key here is think the Wildcats have the talent at quarterback and skill positions to put up enough points to push this thing well past the mark. Arizona has scored at least 31 points in all but one game against a very good Mississippi State defense. They are averaging 481 ypg and 6.6 yards/play. 

Oregon's defense has been solid in their 3 home games, but they gave up that 49 points on a neutral site to Georgia, which is looking worse and worse with how the Bulldogs have struggled offensively of late and 41 at Washington State. This could very well end up being the highest scoring game on the board this Saturday. Give me the OVER 69.5! 

9* NCAAF Over/Under TOTAL KNOCKOUT: USC/Washington St OVER 65.5

I don't see Washington State and USC having any problem eclipsing the high total here of 65.5. I'm a bit shocked this total isn't pushing 70 given the 41-44 game between Washington State and Oregon a couple weeks back. 

That to me is the biggest indicator of how this matchup will play out. USC is every good offensively as the Ducks and Oregon not only scored 44 points they put up 624 total yards. Yes, the Cougars have held their other 4 opponents all under 20 points, but those opponents were all bad offensive teams in Idaho, Wisconsin, Colorado St and Cal. 

If USC didn't have that ugly offensive showing on the road at Oregon State a couple weeks back where they only managed 17 points, I think this total would easily be in the 70s because the Trojans have scored at least 41 in every other game. 

I just think the Beavers were lucky to only give up 17 in that game. In just the 1st half of that game, USC had the ball just 5 times. Really only 4, as one of those drives started with less than a minute to play in the 1st half. They turned it over on downs on their opening drive, missed a FG on their second drive after getting into the redzone and had to settle for a field goal on another drive. 

They got as far as the Oregon State 32-yard line before punting on their opening drive of the 2nd half. They finally got it going with two TDs in the final 20 minutes of play.

Not only do I think that Washington State won't be able to stop USC from scoring, especially on the road, but I think the Cougars can do some damage of their own offensively. The Trojans are not as good defensively as the numbers would suggest, as their defense has feasted off a turnovers. USC has a staggering +14 TO differential thru 5 games. 

If Arizona State can go on the road and put up 25 points against USC, Washington State at the very least should be able to match that. I think they get into the 30s, as I think we could see the Trojans come out a bit flat here looking ahead to next week's big road game at Utah. Give me the OVER 65.5! 

9* NCAAF - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Wisconsin/Northwestern UNDER 44.5

I'm going to take the UNDER 44.5 in Saturday's Big Ten matchup between West rivals Wisconsin and Northwestern. This one shouldn't need a ton of explanation, but I'll go ahead and break it down for why I like a low-scoring game. 

It's not been a good start to the season for Wisconsin. The Badgers just lost 10-34 at home to Illinois to fall to 2-3. They also lost at home to Washington State 14-17. It was enough to make a change at head coach. Paul Chryst has been shown the door and defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard is now the interim. 

With what feels like a make or break point of their season, I would be shocked if the Badgers didn't show up with their best effort. I just have a hard time seeing this awful Northwestern offense being able to do much of anything offensively in this game. The Wildcats were gifted 5 turnovers last week against Penn State and still only managed to score 7 points. 

The key here is I still think there's serious problems with the Wisconsin offense. Take away the 38 points they scored against a FCS foe 38 and the 66 they put up on New Mexico State, the Badgers are averaging just 15 ppg. Northwestern is only giving up 24.8 ppg and that's come against teams who on average are putting up 30.3 ppg. Give me the UNDER 44.5! 

9* NCAAF Friday Night Total ANNIHILATOR: Houston/Memphis OVER 57

I'm going to take the OVER 57 in Friday's American Athletic showdown between Memphis and Houston. I just don't see these two teams having much of problem getting to 60 points. 

The OVER is 4-1 in Houston's 5 games this year with the only game not going OVER being last week's game against Tulane. A lower scoring game was to be expected against the Green Wave, as Tulane was down to their 3rd string QB and are a team that likes to try to wins games by taking the air out of the ball with their run game and defense. Each of the previous 4 games for Houston all saw at least 61 points scored. 

Big reason for that is this Houston defense is not very good. The Cougars are giving up 34.0 ppg, 410 ypg and 5.7 yards/play. They are giving up 274 passing yards/game and 7.1 yards/play. Their secondary gave up 337 yards thru the air to UTSA, 351 to Texas Tech and 334 to Rice. 

Memphis is a little more run heavy than they have been in the past, but should be able to really do as they please offensively in this game. Tigers are scoring 34.4 ppg vs teams who only give up an average of 25.1 ppg and are scoring 37.3 ppg in their 3 home games. 

At the same time, I think Houston's offense is going to be able to move the football. The offense really hasn't been the problem. The Cougars are scoring 31.0 ppg and have not faced the easiest of schedules. 

The only real legit offense Memphis has faced is Mississippi State and they gave up 49 points and 547 yards of total offense to the Bulldogs. Mississippi State didn't punt in that game until midway thru the 3rd quarter with them leading 35-3. Also note that despite only playing one legit team thru 5 games, the OVER is 4-1 in Memphis' games this year with the average combined score of 60.6. Give me the OVER 57! 

9* NFL Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Seahawks/Lions OVER 47.5

I'm going to take the OVER 47.5 in Sunday's game between the Lions and Seahawks. I cashed in on the OVER 42 in last week's game between the Seahawks and Falcons. We got there with relative ease, as the two had 43 points with time to spare in the 3rd quarter. They ended up combining for 50 points without a single point scored in the 4th quarter. Seattle finished that game averaging 6.1 yards/play and the Falcons averaged 7.1 yards/play. 

I like the OVER in this game for a lot of the same reasons. The biggest of those being the Seattle defense and just how bad it is. The Seahawks' defense ranks 29th in the NFL, giving up 6.3 yards/play on the season. That's with them playing two really bad offenses in the Broncos and 49ers and a very average Falcons offense. This to me is the worst defense in the NFL right now. 

So while Detroit will be without their star wide out Amon-Ra St. Brown and top running back D'Andre Swift, I see them having no problem moving the ball up and down the field. Especially with the big edge up front with the Lions top tier offensive line facing off a very bad front for Seattle. 

I also mentioned last week how I thought the Seahawks offense was being undervalued going into their game with the Falcons due to the fact that they had played two of the better defensive teams in the league in the Broncos and 49ers. They did end up with just 23 points, but as I mentioned they averaged 6.1 yards/play. They ended the game with 420 total yards and were over 50% on 3rd down. The only reason they didn't score more is they were just 2/5 in the redzone. 

I don't see them having any problem moving the ball against a bad Lions defense. Detroit has given up 38 to the Eagles, 27 to the Commanders and 28 to the Vikings in 3 games. They are allowing 142 ypg and 5.0 yards/carry on the ground and giving up 408 ypg and 6.0 yards/play. This should have no problem getting to 50 points. Give me the OVER 47.5! 

10* NCAAF Pac-12 Over/Under PLAY OF THE MONTH: Washington/UCLA UNDER 65.5

I love the UNDER 65.5 in Friday's Pac-12 showdown between No. 15 Washington and UCLA. Both of these teams come into this game with a perfect 4-0 record. The big reason we are seeing such a big total is the offensive numbers that these two teams have put up. The Huskies are scoring 44.0 ppg and 531 ypg, while the Bruins are putting up 41.8 ppg and 508 ypg. 

I don't think either of these teams will be able to sustain these numbers. Yes, Washington has two wins over Power 5 teams in Michigan State and Stanford, but both of those teams are bad defensive teams. Michigan State gave up 34 points and 508 total yards last week at home against Minnesota. USC had 505 yards and 41 points against the Cardinal and then only managed to score 17 with 357 total yards in 3-point win at Oregon State. 

As for UCLA's great offensive numbers, it's come against a super soft schedule. Bruins 4 games have come against Bowling Green, Alabama St, S Alabama and Colorado. Those teams combined are giving up an average of 38.1 ppg. 

The other big thing here is these two defenses are performing well. Washington is only giving up 19.0 ppg, 302 ypg and 4.8 yards/play. UCLA is allowing 18.0 ppg, 301 ypg and 4.4 yards/play. 

Another thing that could work against the Huskies offense, is the fact that this will be Washington's first road game of 2022. 

These two are going to need a minimum of 10 scores (9 TDs and 1 FG is 66 points) to get past this number. I just don't think the red zone efficiency is going to be at that level. Give me the UNDER 65.5! 

10* NFL - Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Dolphins/Bengals OVER 47

I love the OVER 47 in Week 4's NFL Thursday Night Football matchup. I think we are at the point in the season where these Thursday games on a just 3 days of rest really have an impact on the teams playing. It's just really hard for NFL players to recover in just 3 days and I feel it has the biggest impact on the defensive side of the ball, where energy and effort are so big to defenses playing well. 

With that said, I think we could really see Miami's defense struggle to get stops in this game. Not only are the Dolphins playing on the road on a short week, they are coming off that massive upset win against the Bills. 

You also can't be fooled about Miami's defense holding the Bills to just 19 points. Buffalo beat themselves in that game. The Bills had 497 yards of total offense in that game. The week before we saw Miami's defense give up 38 points and 473 yards to the Ravens. 

I have a hard time believing that the Dolphins are going to be able to slow down Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati offense, which should keep getting better as Burrow gets more comfortable after missing all that time in the offseason. 

At the same time, I think the Bengals will have a tough time slowing down this Miami offense. The Dolphins have two of the most electric wide outs in the game in Waddle and Hill, who can put points on the board in a blink of an eye. Sure the Bengals defense has looked good to this point, but they have played an awful Steelers offense, a Cowboys offense without Dak and the Jets. Give me the OVER 47! 

9* NFL Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR: Falcons/Seahawks OVER 42

I'm going to take the OVER 42 in Sunday's game between the Falcons and Seahawks. I came into the season with very low expectations for Seattle's defense. So far it's worse than I thought.

Them holding the Broncos to just 16 points in their upset win in Week 1 was a complete fluke. Denver racked up 433 total yards and averaged 6.8 yards/play with 20 1st downs and a 53% conversion rate on 3rd downs. The Broncos had back-to-back drives to start the 2nd half where they fumbled the ball on the Seahawks 1-yard line. They also had at least 30 yards on every possession, punting just once. 

Then in their game against the 49ers they gave up 373 yards and 25 first downs, allowing San Francisco to convert 6 of 15 first downs. Keep in mind they also had no real incentive to score in the 2nd half with a big lead and this is already a team that wants to take the air out of the ball with the run game. 

I don't see them slowing down the Falcons in this game. Atlanta may be 0-2, but I've really liked what I've seen out of this team offensively. Marcus Mariota looks like he belongs on the field. The Falcons come into this game averaging 26.5 ppg, 146 rushing yards/game and 338 yards/game having played two of the better defensive teams in the league in the Saints and Rams. 

The other key for me is I think the Seattle offense is better than the perception right now. They too have played their first two games against two of the top defensive teams. Say what you want about Russell Wilson and the Denver offense, the Broncos defense looks like the real deal and I would put San Francisco up their with the Bills and Chargers for the best defense in the league. 

I think Geno Smith and that offense will be able to generate some offense. They got no choice here but to try and go score for score with the other team and the Falcons are a definitely a defense they can have success against. Atlanta is giving up 29.0 ppg and 6.3 yards/play vs teams who on average are scoring 19.5 ppg and averaging 5.4 yards/play. Just looks at what they gave up to the Saints and Rams and how those two teams looked offensively in their other game. 

I'm really shocked this total is as low as it is, as I think this will easily get into the 50s. Give me the OVER 42! 

10* NFL Vegas Insider TOTAL OF THE MONTH: Chiefs/Colts OVER 50

I love the OVER 50 in Sunday's Week 3 NFL matchup between the Chiefs and Colts. I'm actually shocked this number is as low as it is. I know it was the defense that stepped up and really carried KC to a victory last week in their big game against the Chargers, but there might not be a better top to bottom defensive unit in the NFL than what LA has on the field. 

Mahomes was still able to complete 24 of 35 attempts for 235 yards and 2 TDs. Good but not great numbers. I expect the offense to resemble more of what we saw in their 44-21 win over the Cardinals in Week 1. A game in which they had 488 total yard with Mahomes throwing for 360 and 5 scores. 

Especially after watching how poorly the Colts looked in last week's 24-0 loss to the Jaguars. They let Trevor Lawrence complete 25 of 30 attempts. They are going to have no answer for this Chiefs offense. 

The key here is I do think the Colts will be able to at least score enough here to make it somewhat competitive. Getting shutout by the Jags is bad, but the Colts were very thin in that game at receiver. They are getting guys back at that spot and will be facing a Chiefs defense that could be a little flat after that huge game against the Charger and Tom Brady and the Bucs looming next week. KC also lost one of their better defensive players in linebacker Willie Gay to a 4-game suspension. I'm seeing like a 38-28 type of game here with the potential for even more scoring. Give me the OVER 50! 

9* NFL Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Bills/Dolphins OVER 52

I really like the OVER 52 in Sunday's big showdown between AFC East rivals Buffalo and Miami. I know these are two division rivals and division games have a tendency to be lower scoring. I don't care. I just think the Bills are so good offensively that there's too much value at this number to not play the OVER. 

There's just no stopping this Buffalo offense with the way they are currently constructed and the level at which Josh Allen is playing the quarterback position. They had 31 points in their opener against the Rams and turned the ball over 4 times. They didn't punt once in the entire game against LA and not once in the 1st half against the Titans. Miami just gave up 473 yards and 38 points to the Ravens last week, letting Lamar Jackson throw for 318 yards and 3 scores on 21 of 29 passing. 

The big key here is I think Miami has the offensive fire-power, especially in the passing game, to go score for score with Buffalo. Even more so with the injuries that the Bills are dealing with both on the defensive line and in their secondary. Three of their top 4 defensive tackles are questionable. They are down two starting corners Tre-Davious White and Dane Jackson and both safeties, Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer are not 100%. 

I think if we get a mere 3 TDs from Miami, this thing is going to fly past the number. Give me the OVER 52! 

9* NCAAF Friday Night NO-BRAINER: Virginia/Syracuse OVER 52.5

I really like the OVER 52.5 to cash in Friday's ACC matchup between Virginia and Syracuse. I think we are getting close to a TD in terms of value, as my numbers suggest a total closer to 60.

Part of the reason I believe we are seeing a low total is the fact that the Cavaliers have seen the UNDER cash in all 3 of their games and in their one true test they scored just 3-points on the road vs Illinois. Also, while the Orange did give up 29 last week to Purdue, they did hold Malik Cunningham and a good Louisville offense to just 7 points in their opener. 

At the same time, I don't think people have quite caught on to just how improved this Syracuse offense is. We knew the Orange would be a strong running team with a back like Sean Tucker. What's taken this offense to another level is their improved passing attack.

Garrett Shrader has completed 66.2% of his attempts, is averaging 9.2 yards per attempt and has a 8-0 TD-INT ratio. Last year, Syracuse as a team averaged just 153 yards, completed 54.4% of their attempts and ended the year with their quarterbacks posting a mere 10-6 TD-INT ratio. 

I don't think it's a fluke. Orange added in former Virginia OC Robert Anae to be their new OC this year. Anae really built up that Cavaliers offense. You might be thinking it could be an advantage for Virginia to know the offense that Syracuse is running, but the Cavaliers completely overhauled their staff for new head coach Tony Elliott. 

Orange have scored at least 31 in each of their first 3 games and should easily hit that mark against what I think is a very overrated Virginia defense. The Cavaliers come in giving up just 18.3 ppg and 350 yards/game, but have played an awful ODU offense, a FCS foe in Richmond and while they held Illinois to 24, the Illini could have easily had 40 in that game. 

The big concern is how will Virginia's offense do. I'm confident they will be able to at least get into the 20s. The Cavaliers have one of the better QBs in the ACC in Brennan Armstrong, a new offensive minded coach in Elliott (former OC at Clemson) and Syracuse's defense is built more to stop the run than it is the pass. 

I also think there's a potential here that the Orange defense comes out a bit flat in this game. You got to think that crazy finish against Purdue last week took a lot out of this Syracuse team and that lack of energy can really show up on the defensive side of the ball. Give me the OVER 52.5! 

9* MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: White Sox/Guardians UNDER 7.5

I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER 7.5 in Wednesday's matchup between the White Sox and Guardians. Don't be fooled by last night's 10-7 final. There were 11 runs scored in extra innings. The game was tied 3-3 after 9 and it was 1-0 after 5.5 innings. 

I could see both teams struggling to get their offense going tonight. Cleveland is going to send out Triston McKenzie, who has a 3.03 ERA and 0.968 WHIP in 27 starts. He's also got a 2.29 ERA in his last 3 starts. Lance Lynn is 7-5 with a mediocre 3.99 ERA in 18 starts, but has been lights out of late with a 0.93 ERA and 0.776 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

10* NFL Monday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Vikings/Eagles OVER 50

I'll take my chances with the OVER 50 in tonight's Monday Night Football matchup between the Vikings and Eagles. I think these are two of the better offensive teams in the league. Both looked great in Week 1. 

Philadelphia put up 38 in Week 1 on the road against a much improved Lions team and didn't score a point in the 4th quarter after taking their foot off the gas up 38-21. Eagles had 216 rushing yards and 243 thru the air. I know the Vikings defense looked good in Week 1 against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, but a lot of that had to do with Green Bay not playing any of their guys in the preseason. 

As for the Vikings offense, they scored 23 points, had 395 total yards and averaged 6.5 yards/play against a top tier Packers defense. Minnesota figures to be a Top 10, maybe Top 5, offense this season under new head coach Kevin O'Connell. Eagles defense gave up 35 points and 386 total yards to an average Lions offense. Minnesota should be able to do as they please in this one. Give me the OVER 50! 

8* NFL Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Commanders/Lions OVER 47.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 47.5 in Sunday's Week 2 matchup between the Lions and Commanders. I'm actually a little shocked this total isn't in the 50s after what we saw in Week 1. 

Both offenses really performed well last Sunday. Washington put up 28 points and 390 yards against the Jaguars. If not for 3 turnovers by the Commanders, they easily finish with over 30 points and 400 yards of offense. 

Detroit had 35 points and 386 yards of offense in a 35-38 loss to the Eagles. I know the Lions scored 3 of their 5 touchdowns after falling behind 14-31 in the 2nd half, but that had 38 combined points at the half and 59 after 3 quarters. I really think the way this Detroit team is built, they are going to find themselves in a lot of high scoring games. 

I also think the Commanders defense isn't very good, at least until Chase Young returns from his knee injury. They gave up 383 total yards and 6.2 yards/play to the Jaguars in Week 1. Trevor Lawrence, who might have the worst receiving corps in the NFL threw for 275 and Jacksonville averaged 6.8 yards/carry on the ground. This to me has shootout written all over it. Give me the OVER 47.5! 

10* NFL Over/Under PLAY OF THE MONTH: Panthers/Giants OVER 43

I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER 43 in Sunday's matchup between the Giants and Panthers. I came into this season really excited about the potential of New York's offense, as I expect some pretty significant improvements now that Brian Daboll as their head coach. They also added Mike Kafa as their OC, who comes over after serving as an assistant under Andy Reid in Kansas City. 

It was why I really like the OVER 43.5 in the Giants Week 1 game against Tennessee. Even with the Giants getting shutout in the 1st half of that game, we would have cashed the OVER had the Titans kicker hit a 47-yarder at the end of regulation. 

Considering that the Giants averaged 6.8 yards/play (3rd best mark of any team in Week 1 behind on the Chiefs and Bills) and the Titans averaged 6.0 yards/play (9th best), it's hard to believe we didn't get the OVER in that game. 

With that said, I'm not letting that outcome keep me from backing the OVER with the Giants in Week 2, as we see a mere total of 43. 

Much like the Giants in Week 1, Carolina's offense was basically a no show for the 1st half before coming alive in the 2nd half. Panthers had just 7 points going into the 4th quarter and finished with 24. I know Mayfield didn't play great, but that's a pretty good Browns defense. He should have a much easier time against this Giants defense. I also would expect a little more out of Christian McCaffrey. 

As for the Panthers defense, I think they are solid on that side of the ball, but we did see them give up 26 points to the Browns who don't offer much of a threat in the passing game with Brissett at quarterback. Daniel Jones will be a much tougher challenge to stop and I could see the Panthers having a difficult time containing Saquon Barkley, which is going to only make it easier on Jones with the defense forced to play the run. Give me the OVER 43! 

9* NCAAF Friday Night ACC NO-BRAINER: FSU/Louisville UNDER 57.5

I really like the UNDER 57.5 in Friday's ACC matchup between Florida State and Louisville. I just have a hard time seeing this turn into a shootout. Both these teams have dual threat QBs who are a much bigger threat to run than they are to pass. The threat for big plays is definitely there, but for the most part these are two offenses that want to methodically move the ball down the field. 

I came into the season extremely high on Louisville's offense, as I thought quarterback Malik Cunningham was going to take a big step forward. I just haven't seen it in his first two games. The Cardinals could do nothing in their opener at Syracuse, scoring just 7 points and gaining 334 total yards. They did manage to put up over 400 yards in their win over UCF last week, but only managed to score 20 points. 

I just don't think they are built to have success against this Florida State defense. Seminoles returned 8 starters and added in some nice pieces on defense via the portal. I was very impressed with how they played against LSU. They held a potent Tigers offense to just 348 total yards, had 4 sacks and 6 tackles for loss. They did struggle to contain LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels, who had 114 yards on 16 attempts. However, the rest of the team had just 25 rushing yards on 14 attempts. 

Louisville's defense has been a bit spotty in their first two games, especially against the run, but keep in mind that both of those were on the road. Defenses usually perform better at home and typically will get a big boost in these prime time weekday games. FSU had 392 total yards and were 11 for 17 on 3rd downs, yet still only scored 24 against LSU. I think the Cardinals can keep them below 30, which should in term have this game finishing in the upper 40s/low 50s. Give me the UNDER 57.5! 

10* MLB Over/Under PLAY OF THE MONTH (UNDER 7.5) 

Really like the UNDER 7.5 in Tuesday's game between the Padres and Mariners. It was a pitchers duel last night in the series opener. Seattle won the game 2-0. No surprise to see these two play tight low scoring games. Not just the talent on the mound, but also how much is at stake for both of these teams. 

The Padres only hope of making the playoffs is the Wild Card and there's only two up for grabs in a 3-team race (Braves or Mets are all but locked into the top Wild Card spot). As of today they hold the last spot, but are just 2 up on the Brewers. 

For Cleveland it's really looking like their only path to the postseason is to win the AL Central (Wild Card isn't out of the question). Right now they are just 3 up on the White Sox and 5 up on Chicago. Every game means a ton to them right now. 

I also love the starting pitching matchup here with Louis Castillo and Mike Clevinger. Castillo has been great since coming to Seattle. Clevinger has a 7.43 ERA in his last 3 starts, but two of those were against the Dodgers. In his last 7 starts against a team not named the Dodgers, Clevinger has allowed 2 or fewer runs 6 times and gave up 3 in another. Play the UNDER 7.5! 

8* NFL - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Giants/Titans OVER 43.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 43.5 in Sunday's NFL matchup between the Giants and Titans. I was shocked to see this total this low. I'm expecting major improvements from the Giants offense this year after they were one of the worst in the league last year. 

It's not so much the players the Giants added offensively, but the guy calling the shots. I'm a big Brian Daboll fan and really believe he's the guy that transformed Josh Allen into the quarterback he is now. I'm not saying he's going to take Daniel Jones to that level, but he's going to be better. The offense is going to be more pass happy than it's been and as a result will score a lot more than the 15.2 ppg they averaged last year. 

Defensively New York was 25th against the run and the entire defense to me is a big question mark going into this season. I just don't know that the talent is there and I think it's asking a lot for them to have to try to contain what I think is going to be a hungry and motivated Derrick Henry. When Henry has it going, it opens up the entire offense for Tennessee. 

I got both teams scoring well into the 20s and for these two to push the 50-point mark. Give me the OVER 43.5! 

10* NCAAF - SEC Total PLAY OF THE MONTH: S Carolina/Arkansas OVER 52.5

I will take my chances with the OVER 52.5 in Saturday's SEC matchup between Arkansas and South Carolina. This to me is just way too low a total for a game involving the Razorbacks. 

Arkansas is absolutely loaded on the offensive side of the ball and it starts with sophomore quarterback KJ Jefferson, who somehow is still flying a bit under the radar. Jefferson is special and the biggest reason why the Razorbacks went 9-4 last year after not winning more than 4 games in any of the previous 4 seasons. It also helps he's playing behind one of the better offensive lines in the country. Arkansas put up 30.9 ppg and 442 ypg last year and will easily top that in 2022. 

They scored 31 points with 447 yards against Cincinnati in the opener. I know the Bearcats lost some guys on the defensive side of the ball, but that was far from a pushover for the Arkansas offense. I don't see South Carolina's defense being able to stop them, especially with the game in Fayetteville. 

The key here is I also think South Carolina's offense is poised to put up some points in this game. They gave up 438 yards (325 passing) to a Cincinnati offense that lost one of their all-time best QBs in Desmond Ridder, as well as their top back and leading receiver. 

Both starting safety Jalen Catalon and starting nickel corner Myles Slusher were hurt in that game and did not return. Good chance neither play on Saturday. 

South Carolina's offense wasn't overly impressive in their win against Georgia State, but remember they got former Oklahoma starter Spencer Rattler under center. Rattler can spark big plays and quick scores and he's also one that will take chances and give the ball away, setting up short fields and quick scores for the other side. Give me the OVER 52.5! 

10* NFL Thursday Night VEGAS INSIDER: Bills/Rams OVER 52

My money is on the OVER 52 in Thursday's highly anticipated season opener between the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams. I don't see these two teams have any problem eclipsing this number. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if this thing went well into the 60s. 

These were two of the best offenses in the league last year. The Rams finished 9th in the NFL in total offense (372.1 ypg) and T-7th in scoring (27.1 ppg). Buffalo has the No. 5 ranked total offense (381.9 ypg) and the No. 3 ranked scoring offense (28.4 ppg). 

I don't see any letdown coming from Josh Allen and the Bills offense in 2022. I also love the matchup for Buffalo in this one. The Bills are a pass-first offense and the Rams are much better suited at stopping the run. LA was 22nd in the league last year defending the pass (241.7 ypg). 

The big concern some might have is the health of Matthew Stafford's elbow and LA facing what many believe to be a strong Bills defense. I personally think the injury is being a bit overblown. If it was serious he wouldn't be out there in Week 1.

I also think Buffalo's defense comes in way overrated. When you look at who who they played and who was on the field when they played their opponents, the Bills caught a lot of breaks. They are also going to be starting the season without Tre-Davious White.

Look for new Rams wide out Allen Robinson to play a big role, as I feel he was one of the more underrated signings in the entire offseason. Give me the OVER 52! 

9* MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Mariners/White Sox UNDER 7.5

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 7.5 in Wednesday's matchup between the Mariners and White Sox. It's been an offensive struggle for both teams in the first two games of this series. Seattle won the series opener by a score of 3-2 on Monday and then Chicago won 3-0 on Tuesday. 

Expect more of the same with today's pitching matchup, as the White Sox will send out Michael Kopech and the Mariners go with Luis Castillo.

Kopech will be returning from a stint on the IL after dealing with some knee soreness in his last start back on August 22nd. Kopech has been rock-solid for Chicago this season, posting a 3.58 ERA and 1.211 WHIP in 23 starts. Castillo has been everything they hoped for and then some since coming over in a trade with Cincinnati. Castillo has a 2.39 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 6 starts with Seattle. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

10* MLB - Over/Under PLAY OF THE MONTH: Nationals/Cardinals OVER 8

I love the OVER 8 in Tuesday's matchup between the Cardinals and Nationals. Washington is swinging a red-hot bat right now. They were unlucky scoring just 6 runs yesterday, as they left a staggering 14 guys on base. Nationals are hitting a scorching .308 as a team over their last 7 games. 

I like that offense to stay hot against the Cardinals' Jose Quintana, who has a 4.38 ERA and 2.188 WHIP in his last 3 starts. I also like St Louis to score early and often in this one. Washington is sending out Paolo ESpino, who is 0-6 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.399 WHIP in 15 starts. Give me the OVER 8! 

10* NCAAF Friday Night TOTAL NO-BRAINER: TCU/Colorado OVER 55

I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 55 in Friday's Power 5 non-conference matchup between TCU and Colorado. I don't think these two teams will have any problem getting to 60 points and it could even go into the 70s. 

A big reason I'm so high on the OVER is I think people are really sleeping on this TCU offense. The Horned Frogs brought in Sonny Dykes to replace Gary Patterson and Dykes knows how to put up points. In his last 3 years at SMU, the Mustangs put up monster numbers. Even better is Dykes was able to bring along his OC Garrett Riley. 

These two will take over an offense that returns 10 starters from a unit that averaged a misleading 28.7 ppg. I say misleading, because they averaged a healthy 436 ypg (17 more ypg than they had in 2017 when they averaged 33.6 ppg. 

They got options at quarterback with the return of starter Max Duggan and backup Chandler Morris, who transferred in from Oklahoma last year (had 461 passing yards vs Oklahoma and could overtake Duggan). 

They get back a stud RB in Kenre Miller, return their top 4 pass catchers and on paper have one of the best O-lines in the country. I think they easily average a TD more a game and really should feast on what figures to be a sub-par Colorado defense. 

They key here is I think the Buffaloes will also be able to generate some offense. Colorado isn't elite offensively, but should be greatly improved over the unit that averaged just 18.8 ppg and 257 ypg last year. TCU's defense will be improved, but they are in the first year of a new system and gave up 34.9 ppg and 462 ypg in 2021. Give me the OVER 55! 

10* MLB Late Night VEGAS INSIDER: Padres/Giants UNDER 7.5

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 7.5 in Monday's series opener between the Padres and Giants. It's going to be a pretty cool night at Oracle Park with temps in the high 50's. That should work to the advantage of the pitchers. 

San Francisco will have Carlos Rodon on the mound. He's 12-6 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.032 WHIP in 25 starts. He's 6-1 with a 1.86 ERA in 11 home starts and has a 1.89 ERA and 0.789 WHIP in his last 3 outings. San Diego will counter with Mike Clevinger, who has a very respectable 3.45 ERA and 1.111 WHIP in 15 starts this season. 

The other big thing is both offenses have been struggling to produce of late. The Giants have scored 3 or fewer runs in 5 straight and 9 of their last 11. The Padres just put up a bunch of runs in a 3-game series at KC, but prior to that had scored 9 runs total in their previous 6 games. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

8* MLB Over/Under Total KNOCKOUT: Rockies/Mets UNDER 8

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8 in Saturday's matchup between the Rockies and Mets. I think we have an underrated starting pitching duel in this one.

As is the case for a lot of Colorado pitchers, the Rockies Kyle Freeland has performed much better on the road than he has at home. Freeland has a 3.62 ERA in 11 road starts. In his last 3 road starts he's allowed 3 runs in 6 innings at St Louis, 2 runs in 5 2/3 innings at San Diego and 0 runs in 7 innings at Milwaukee. 

David Peterson will take the mound for the Mets. He's kind of an afterthought in New York's loaded rotation, but has posted a very respectable 3.33 ERA in 15 starts. He's been really good of late with a 1.80 ERA over his last 3 starts. He'll be facing a Rockies offense that is barely averaging over 3 runs/game on the road this year. Give me the UNDER 8! 

10* MLB - Over/Under VEGAS INSIDER: Guardians/Mariners UNDER 7.5

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 7.5 in Thursday's matchup between the Guardians and Mariners. Cleveland will have Triston McKenzie on the mound. He's red-hot coming into this start with a 1.66 ERA and 0.738 WHIP over his last 3 starts. McKenzie also owns a 1.77 ERA and 0.813 WHIP in 11 day starts this season. 

Seattle will counter with Marco Gonzalez, who has a solid 3.62 ERA and 1.236 WHIP in 12 home starts. Mariners have seen the UNDER cash in 28 of their last 41 home day games. UNDER is also 16-6 in Seattle's last 22 at home vs an AL starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.70 or better and 11-2 in their last 13 at home vs a starter who averages 5 or more K's per start. Play the UNDER 7.5! 

10* MLB Over/Under MAX UNIT Top Play: Blue Jays/Red Sox OVER 9.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 9.5 in Wednesday's AL East showdown between the Blue Jays and Red Sox. These two teams combined for 12 runs in the opener on Tuesday. There's a good chance we see even more offense today. 

Neither starting pitcher has been any good. Jose Berrios is 9-5, but owns a 5.39 ERA and 1.368 WHIP in 24 starts. He's also got a 6.82 ERA and 1.533 WHIP in 12 road starts. OVER is 10-2 in those 12 starts. 

Brayan Bello has a 10.50 ERA and an atrocious 2.500 WHIP in 3 starts. He's yet to make it past the 4th inning and has given up at least 4 runs in all 3 starts. Give me the OVER 9.5! 

10* MLB Over/Under VEGAS INSIDER: Cardinals/Diamondbacks UNDER 7.5

I'll gladly take my chances with the UNDER 7.5 in Sunday's series finale between the Cardinals and Diamondbacks. These two saw 20+ runs in St Louis' blowout win on Saturday, but prior to that the UNDER had cashed in 8 straight games for Arizona. 

A lot of that is the Diamondbacks aren't as potent offensively after the trade deadline. I look for them to have a hard time pushing across runs against the Cardinals Jose Quintana. He's really been good for St Louis in his 3 starts since coming over from the Pirates. He's got a 2.65 ERA and 1.059 WHIP in those 3 starts and one of those was at Coors Field. 

On the flip side of this, Arizona has not just one of their best starts going, but a top tier starter in the NL on the mound in Merrill Kelly. He's 10-5 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.122 WHIP in 24 starts. I think he's more than up to the challenge of keeping this Cardinals offense in check. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

MLB Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 7.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Rockies and Cardinals finishing UNDER the total of 7.5. Colorado will have German Marquez on the mound. He's pitched great in his last 2 starts, giving up just 2 ER in 6 innings both starts. Marquez also has a great history against the Cardinals. He's got a 2.59 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in 7 career starts vs St Louis. 

The Cardinals will counter with Jordan Montgomery, who has pitched great since coming over from the Yankees at the trade deadline. Montgomery has not allowed a run in his first 2 starts with St Louis. Definitely a plus matchup here against a Rockies team that struggles to score away from Coors Field. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Over/Under VEGAS INSIDER Top Play (Over 9.5)

I'll take my chances with the OVER 9.5 in Thursday's makeup game between AL East rivals Baltimore and Boston. The Orioles just keep winning baseball games. They are 7-1 over their last 8 games. Boston on the other hand can't catch a break Red Sox have lost 6 of their last 7. 

Baltimore's offense is swinging it well and should be able to take advantage of Red Sox starter Josh Winckowski.

Even though Boston isn't, they are swinging a decent bat of late. Red Sox have racked up 51 hits in their last 5 games. Baltimore's Dean Kremer was great in his last start, but that was against a bad Pirates offense. He'd allowed 6 runs in 4 1/3 innings his previous time out. He's also given up 10 runs on 12 hits in 2 starts (7 2/3 innings) against Boston. Give me the OVER 9.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

NFLX Sharp Money NO-BRAINER (Under 35)

*No Analysis on NFLX Games* 

Confidence Rating: 7 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER Top Play (UNDER 7.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 7.5 in Sunday's series finale between the Reds and Brewers. Cincinnati figures to have a hard time getting their offense going against Milwaukee ace Corbin Burnes, who is one of the elite starters in baseball. Burnes comes in with a 2.49 ERA and 0.946 WHIP in 21 starts. He's got a 2.51 ERA and 1.117 WHIP in 2 career starts against the Reds. 

Cincinnati will counter with Graham Ashcraft. He's 5-2 with a mediocre 4.12 ERA and 1.332 WHIP in 13 starts. However, he's coming in off one of his best starts of the season and is facing a Brewers offense that has hit of a bit of a funk offensively in this series. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 8) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8 in Monday's series opener between the Dodgers and Giants. LA will have Andrew Heaney on the mound and San Francisco will have Logan Webb. Heaney has made 4 starts in 2022 and has given up just 1 ER on 10 hits in 19 1/3 innings. Webb is 7-2 with a 2.43 ERA and 1.170 WHIP in 11 home starts. Webb also has an impressive 2.50 ERA and 0.993 WHIP in 9 career starts vs the Dodgers. Give me the UNDER 8! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play on UNDER 7.5

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 7.5 in Friday's matchup between the Cubs and Giants. San Francisco won the opener 4-2 on Thursday. It was a real tough day at the plate for Chicago, who managed just 3 hits on the game. 

I think we see those struggles carry over to this game. San Francisco will have Alex Cobb on the mound. He's posted a respectable 3.32 ERA over his last 3 starts. 

I also don't see the Giants offense doing a whole lot. San Francisco has been in quite the funk offensively of late. In their last 7 games they are scoring just 2.4 runs/game and hitting 0.189 as a team. Cubs starter, Marcus Stroman, has a 2.31 ERA in 7 road starts and a 1.26 ERA and 0.907 WHIP over his last 3 outings. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

MLB Over/Under PLAY OF THE WEEK (UNDER 8.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Tuesday's MLB action between the Giants and Diamondbacks. I just don't see these two teams getting to 9 runs with this starting pitching matchup. 

San Francisco will send out ace Carlos Rodon, who has a 2.95 ERA and 1.136 WHIP in 19 starts. Rodon did struggle in his last start at the Dodgers, giving up 5 ER in 5 innings. However, that's only the third start this season where he's allowed more than 3 runs. Last time he gave up more than 3 runs, he came back the next start and pitched a complete game. 

Tyler Gilbert will get the ball for Arizona. Gilbert has a 5.59 ERA and 1.280 WHIP in 6 starts. Thing is, he had two really bad outings on the road, where he gave up 12 ER. He's allowed just 5 ER in his 4 other outings and just 1 ER in two home starts. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER Top Play (Under 8.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Saturday's AL Central matchup between the Tigers and Twins. We got Joe Ryan on the mound for Minnesota and Michael Pineda going for Detroit. Ryan has been excellent in 2022. He's 6-3 with a 2.99 ERA and 1.062 WHIP in 14 starts. He allowed just 1 hit with 9 K's in 7 scoreless innings in his only start vs the Tigers this season. 

Pineda is just 2-5 with a 5.22 ERA and 1.362 WHIP in 9 starts. The key here is the damage has mainly come on the road for Pineda. He's got a 2.96 ERA and 1.134 WHIP in 6 home starts. UNDER is 5-1 in those 6 home starts. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER Top Play (UNDER 8)

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8 in Friday's series opener between the Red Sox and Yankees. Really like the starting pitching matchup we have going in this one. Boston will send out Nathan Eovaldi, while the Yankees turn to Jordan Montgomery. 

Eovaldi has been sensational of late. He's got a 0.90 ERA and 0.950 WHIP in his last 3 starts and is coming off back to back starts on the road where he didn't give up a run. Montgomery has a 3.19 ERA and 0.833 WHIP in 8 home starts. As good as these two offenses are, I don't see them getting to 9 runs tonight. Give me the UNDER 8! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Over/Under TOTAL OF THE WEEK (Under 8)

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8 in Thursday's AL West matchup between the Angels and Astros. I really have a hard time seeing these two teams get to 9 runs. I definitely doing much offensively. Houston has Framber Valdez on the mound. He's got a 2.64 ERA and 1.101 WHIP in 17 starts. He's also got a 1.75 ERA and 0.900 WHIP in 10 road starts. 

The key here is we can't have Angels' starter Reid Detmers not blow up. I like his chances of pitching well. Detmers has a very respectable 3.52 ERA and outstanding 0.809 WHIP in 7 home starts. Detmers also has a 2.70 ERA over 2 career starts (1 this year and 1 last year) against the Astros. Give me the UNDER 8! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Over/Under PLAY OF THE WEEK (Under 8.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Saturday's AL Central matchup between the Tigers and White Sox. Chicago will have veteran Johnny Cueto on the mound. Cueto has been better than expected for the White Sox. He's got a strong 3.11 ERA and 1.200 WHIP over 9 starts. He's been especially good in day games (1.42 ERA in 3 starts). He also has a 1.50 ERA in division games. 

Detroit will counter with Garrett Hill. He was spectacular in his first big league start. Hill allowed just 1 run on 2 hits in 6 innings against Cleveland. The only run he gave up came on a solo home run. It's unlikely he's that good in start number two, but I don't see him blowing up. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 9.5) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 9.5 in Thursday's NL West clash between the Rockies and Diamondbacks. We should see plenty of offense in this one, as we got a couple of struggling starters taking the mound. 

Colorado will turn to Austin Gomber, who is 4-7 with a 6.42 ERA and 1.442 WHIP in 13 starts. Gomber has made 3 starts vs Arizona in his career, all since 2021, and all 3 have seen a combined score of at least 13 runs. 

Dallas Keuchel will go for the Diamondbacks. He's 2-6 with a 8.49 ERA and 2.105 WHIP in 10 starts and it isn't getting any better. He's got a 12.71 ERA and 2.383 WHIP over his last 3 starts. He's only faced Colorado once in the last 5 years. It didn't go well, giving up 7 runs in 5 innings of a 7-11 loss. Give me the OVER 9.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER Top Play (OVER 8.5) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 8.5 in Wednesday's interleague matchup between the Yankees and Pirates. These two teams should have no problem getting to at least 9 runs. New York could easily eclipse this number on their own, but they should get some help from Pittsburgh. 

Pirates have scored 5 or more runs in 4 of their last 6 games. Yankees' Luis Severino has a 4.32 ERA in 6 road starts and a 5.29 ERA over his last 3 outings. New York's loaded lineup will be facing Pittsburgh's Mitch Keller. In 13 starts this season, Keller has a disappointing 5.34 ERA and 1.500 WHIP. Play the OVER 8.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Friday's MLB Free Pick: Rays/Blue Jays UNDER 9 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 9 in Friday's early AL East showdown between the Rays and Blue Jays. This feels like it's at least a full run too high. Tampa Bay has a resurgent Corey Kluber on the mound. Kluber has a 3.45 ERA and 1.082 WHIP in 14 starts. He's got a 2.08 ERA and 0.866 WHIP in his last 3 outings, 2.14 ERA in 8 day starts and a 2.64 ERA in 6 division starts. 

Toronto will turn to an inconsistent Jose Berrios, who is 5-4 with a 5.86 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 15 starts. That inconsistency has really been a matter of pitching at home or on the road. Berrios is 3-0 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.059 WHIP in 6 home starts. Give me the UNDER 9! 

Confidence Rating: 5 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 8.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Wednesday's matchup between the Red Sox and Blue Jays. We took a bad beat on the UNDER 10 in yesterday's game between these two, as Toronto scored 2 in the bottom of the 9th to win 6-5. 

That's not going to deter me from backing the UNDER again, as we got an even better starting pitching matchup this time around. Boston will send out a very underrated Nick Pivetta, who has a 3.25 ERA and 1.105 WHIP in 15 starts. Pivetta also comes in hot with a 1.64 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his last 3 starts. 

Blue Jays will counter with Alek Manoah, who is 9-2 with a 2.05 ERA and 0.958 WHIP in 14 starts. Manoah is 5-1 with a 2.15 ERA in 7 home starts and has a 1.50 ERA and 0.899 WHIP in 3 career starts vs the Red Sox. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

AL East Over/Under TOTAL OF THE WEEK (Under 10)

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 10 in Tuesday's AL East showdown between the Red Sox and Blue Jays. Boston will have Michael Wacha on the mound. Wacha is 6-1 with a 2.34 ERA and 1.041 WHIP in 12 starts. Ross Stripling will start for Toronto. Stripling is 3-2 with a 2.81 ERA and 0.936 WHIP in 9 starts. Stripling also has a 1.72 ERA and 0.893 WHIP over his last 3 outings. 

These two starters faced off in an earlier matchup back in April. Both pitched extremely well. Wacha held the Blue Jays to just 1 run on 4 hits in 6 innings. Stripling allowed 1 run on 5 hits in 5 innings. Give me the UNDER 10! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Vegas Insider MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 8)

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8 in Saturday's matchup between the Mariners and Angels. Really good starting pitching matchup in this one, as Seattle sends out Logan Gilbert and LA counters with Patrick Sandoval. 

Gilbert is one of the better starters that you don't hear a lot about. Guy is 7-3 with a 2.39 ERA and 1.036 WHIP in 14 starts. Same goes for Sandoval, who has a 2.70 ERA and 1.317 WHIP in 11 starts. These two also have a strong track record against their division rival. Gilbert has a 3.74 ERA and 1.108 WHIP in 4 starts vs the Angeles and Sandoval has a 3.30 ERA and 1.067 WHIP in 5 starts vs the Mariners. Give me the UNDER 8! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

National League TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 9)

I'll gladly take my chances with the UNDER 9 in Wednesday's matchup between the Braves and Giants. These two had an offensive explosion on Tuesday, as Atlanta squeaked out a 12-10 win. I believe it's created some value with today's total, as we got a pretty good starting pitching matchup. 

The Giants will have Carlos Rodon on the mound. Rodon had that great start to 2022, but then had a stretch of some not so great outings. He seems to have righted the ship. Rodon has a 1.00 ERA over his last 3 starts and has not allowed a run in his last 2 outings. 

Charlie Morton will get the ball for Atlanta. Morton's numbers aren't great, as he owns a 5.08 ERA and 1.352 WHIP in 13 starts. However, he too has shown some life of late. Morton just threw 7 scoreless innings in his last start and has racked up an impressive 29 K's in 18 innings over his last 3 outings. Give me the UNDER 9! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER Top Play (Over 9)

I'll take my chances with the OVER 9 in Tuesday's AL Central matchup between the Twins and Guardians. These two teams should have no problem combining for at least 10 runs. Cleveland will send out Aaron Civale, who has an ugly 7.84 ERA in 7 starts and a 12.00 ERA and 2.133 WHIP in 4 road outings (OVER is 4-0). 

The Twins will turn to Joe Ryan. While Ryan comes in with an impressive 2.81 ERA and 1.021 WHIP in 9 starts, he struggled in his first start back after missing close to 3 weeks. Ryan gave up 4 runs on 5 hits (2 HR) in just 4 2/3 innings at Seattle. 

The other big factor in the OVER is Mother Nature. It's expected to be in the mid 80's with wind blowing out to center at close to 20 mph. Give me the OVER 9! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8 in Wednesday's matchup between the Twins and Mariners. It's only expected to be in the high 50's in Seattle when this game goes off. Seattle has now played 5 games on their long homestand and 4 of the 5 so far have seen 7 or fewer runs scored. 

All signs point to another lower scoring game today, as we got two pretty good starters on the mound with Minnesota's Sonny Gray and Seattle's Marco Gonzales. Gray has a 2.41 ERA and 0.980 WHIP in 7 starts overall. He's been even better than that with 1.42 ERA and 0.684 WHIP in his last 3 outings. Gonzales has a 3.63 ERA in 12 starts and 3.38 ERA over his last 3 outings. Give me the UNDER 8! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

American League TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 8) 

I love the UNDER 8 in Saturday's matchup between the White Sox and Rangers. We got Martin Perez on the mound for Texas. He's one of the more underrated starters in the league. Perez has a 1.56 ERA and 0.981 WHIP in 11 starts. He's been nearly unhittable on the road, posting a 0.31 ERA and 0.897 WHIP in 4 road outings. 

Chicago will turn to Lucas Giolito. He's not been quite as good as what people expected to this point. He's got a 3.54 ERA and 1.457 WHIP in 9 starts. Key here is he is a different guy at home. Giolito has 2.37 ERA and 1.263 WHIP over 3 home starts. He's also got a 2.38 ERA over 2 career starts vs the Rangers. Give me the UNDER 8! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

National League Total PLAY OF THE WEEK (UNDER 8) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8 in Tuesday's series opener between the Mets and Padres. Really good starting pitching matchup in this one, as San Diego sends out Yu Darvish and New York turns to Taijuan Walker. 

Darvish has had his ups and downs in 2022, which is why he's got a 4.03 ERA in 10 starts. However, most of the damage has come on the road. Darvish is 2-1 with a 1.71 ERA and 0.683 WHIP in 4 home starts. All 4 starts have finished UNDER the total. 

Walker has been rock solid regardless of where he starts. He's got a 2.88 ERA in 8 starts overall and a 2.80 ERA in 5 road starts. He's also got a 2.04 ERA over his last 3 starts, as he's allowed just 4 ER in his last 17 2/3 innings. Give me the UNDER 8! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Late Night Total NO-BRAINER (Under 9) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 9 in Monday's matchup between the Red Sox and Angels. Michael Wacha will be on the mound for Boston. He's got a 2.43 ERA and 1.008 WHIP in 8 starts. The UNDER cashing in 6 of those 8 outings. Wacha will be facing a Angels' lineup that is in quite a funk. LA has scored 2 or fewer runs in 5 of their last 6 games. 

Noah Syndergaard was just torched for 5 runs in 2 1/3 innings at New York, but that wasn't all that surprising. It's been night and day for Syndergaard in terms of his performance at home and on the road. Syndergaard is 3-0 with a 1.48 ERA and 0.863 WHIP over 4 home starts. Give me the UNDER 9! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 7.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 7.5 in Saturday's matchup between the Padres and Brewers. Two underrated starters take the mound in this one.

Mackenzie Gore of the Padres has been sensational in his first 7 big league starts (all this year). He's 3-1 with a 1.85 ERA and 1.077 WHIP with 43 Ks in 39 innings of work. 

Milwaukee's Aaron Ashby has a 2.48 ERA over 5 starts this season and he's done that with 4 of his 5 starts coming on the road. He's also really had just one bad outing at Atlanta a few starts back. He gave up 6 in 4 innings. He's allowed a mere 2 ER in his 4 other starts combined. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 7.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 7.5 in Friday's series opener between the Diamondbacks and Pirates. I like the pitching matchup we have in this one. Arizona's Merrill Kelly has an ugly 10.50 ERA and 2.167 WHIP in his last 3 starts, but almost all the damage came in one start on the road against the Dodgers, where he gave up 8 runs in 2 innings.

He's pitched better in his last two starts and now faces a very mediocre Pirates offense that figures to be dealing with a bit of jet lag and a possible letdown after playing 6 straight in California and off a 3-game sweep of the Dodgers in LA. 

Pittsburgh will counter with the red-hot J.T. Brubaker, who has a 2.08 ERA over his last 3 starts, giving up a mere 4 ER over his last 17 1/3 innings of work. Brubaker's only career start vs Arizona came last August and he held the Dbacks scoreless over 5 innings. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Over/Under MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 8.5) 

I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Monday's matchup between the Diamondbacks and Braves. This to me is a very good starting pitching matchup. 

Arizona will have their best starter on the mound in Zac Gallen. He's got a strong 2.22 ERA and a sensational 0.828 WHIP over 8 starts. His lone start against Atlanta came last season and he held the Braves to just 1 hit over 7 scoreless innings. 

The big value with the total comes from Atlanta sending out Spencer Strider for his first big league start. Those that don't know, Strider is one of the Braves top young arms. He's been outstanding out of the pen this year, posting a 2.22 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. He's also racked up a staggering 37 K's in 24 1/3 innings. 

He's probably not going to go deep into this game, but that's not a big concern. Braves' relievers this year have posted a combined 3.41 ERA and 1.205 WHIP. For whatever reason those guys out of the pen have been at their best on the road with a 1.95 ERA and 1.098 WHIP. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Over/Under PLAY OF THE WEEK (Under 8.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Saturday's cross-town matchup between the Cubs and White Sox. Love the pitching matchup in this one. Cubs will give the ball to Keegan Thompson, while the White Sox turn to veteran Johnny Cueto. 

Thompson has made 2 starts and pitched well, giving up just 2 ER in 9 innings of work. Cueto on the other hand hasn't allowed a run in his first 2 starts of 2022. He's thrown 6 scoreless innings in both starts, including his last start at New York against a loaded Yankees lineup. Look for both teams to struggle to score in this one. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Heat/Celtics Game 6 VEGAS INSIDER (Under 201.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 201.5 in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals. With Jimmy Butler on one leg, Tyler Herro out with a hamstring injury and Kyle Lowry playing at less than 100%, the Heat just don't have the offensive fire-power to score 100 points against one of the best defenses in the NBA. Miami scored just 82 points in Game 4 at Boston and 80 in Game 5 at home. 

I have a hard time seeing the Heat going off on the road in Game 6. With that said, Miami is not going to lay down. The Heat are going to do whatever they can to be competitive and there only way of being competitive is to make this game as ugly as possible and hope the Celtics miss some shots. Even so, Boston shot a solid 47% from the field in Game 5 and still only managed to score 93 points. Getting to 100 figures to be a struggle for both teams tonight. Give me the UNDER 201.5! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Late Night Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Wednesday's AL West matchup between the Angels and Rangers. This is a sneaky good pitching matchup. Texas' will send out Glenn Otto, who has a 2.81 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in 3 road starts. Last time out, he gave up just 2 runs in 6 innings at Houston. 

Reid Detmers will get the start for Los Angeles. He's coming off a subpar outing at Texas, but that was to be expected in his first start following his no hitter against the Rays were he threw 108 pitches (88 was his previous high). Detmers has had a full 7 days off since his last start and owns a 1.96 ERA and 0.565 WHIP over 4 home starts this season. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

Eastern Conf Finals (Game 5) MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 204) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 204 in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Celtics and Heat. I always like to look to the UNDER in a series when it's tied 2-2 going into a Game 5. It's not quite the same as a Game 7, but it has that feel to it, where both teams are pulling out all the stops to go up 3-2 in what is now a best of 3 series. 

We finally saw a defensive game in Game 4, after each of the first 3 games went OVER the total. The two combined for just 184 points in Game 4. I see no reason not to expect more of the same. Both teams are dealing with big injuries. Boston is likely without Smart and Heat could be playing without both Lowry and Herro. Either way, these two teams know how they want to defend the opposition. Give me the UNDER 204! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 7.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 7.5 in Sunday's series finale between the Cubs and Diamondbacks. These two have put up some big offensive numbers the last two days, but yesterday's 7-6 final was extremely misleading. The two teams had combined for just 4 runs going into the 7th inning. Arizona put up a 3 spot in the 8th and then the two scored a combined 5 runs in the 10th. 

Great bounce back spot here for Dbacks starter Merrill Kelly after he was torched for 8 runs in 2 innings of his last start against the Dodgers. That's going to happen against that LA offense to the best starters. Kelly was in the Cy Young talks before that outing. I really like him to pitch well here. 

Cubs will turn to Wade Miley. He's only made 2 starts, but has been rock solid. Last time out he allowed just 1 hit over 7 scoreless innings. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

Eastern Conf Finals (Game 3) MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 207.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 207.5 in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals. It's been a a lot higher scoring series so far. Both Game 1 and Game 2 went OVER the total. They went for 225 with a total of 203.5 in Game 1 and for 229 with a total of 206 in Game 2. 

Why go UNDER in Game 3? This to me is when the series really start to flip to the defenses having the edge. Both teams are now very familiar with what both teams want to do and the adjustments they make when they try to take something away. 

Not only that, but I think we see the defense turned up a notch anytime a series is tied. Both teams are going to be extremely motivated to take a 2-1 series lead. We finally get the defensive showdown we thought we would see from the start. Give me the UNDER 207.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Late Night Total No-Brainer (Under 7.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances on the UNDER 7.5 in Friday's late night NL West showdown between the Giants and Padres. These two scored a combined 2 runs in the series opener yesterday and that's now 3 straight games for San Diego that have seen 3 or fewer runs scored. Hard to not expect more of the same with Sean Manaea on the mound for the Padres and Jake Junis going for the Giants. Manaea has a 2.70 ERA and 0.862 WHIP in 4 road starts. Junis hasn't had his best stuff in either of his first 2 starts and still has allowed just 4 runs in 10 2/3 innings. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

Eastern Conference Finals (Game 2) MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 208)

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 208 in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals. A lot of people were on the UNDER in Game 1 and got burned as that went well past the total of 203.5 with the game finishing at 225. 

We cashed the Heat -1.5 in that one, but had I been forced to play the total I would have leaned to the OVER. I just didn't think Boston would be at their best defensively coming off back-to-back elimination wins with just one day off from their Game 7 win against the Bucks. Not only that, but they were without two of their better defenders in Marcus Smart and Al Horford. 

Now it's time to look to the UNDER with the books jumping this total up to 208. Boston should be much better defensively in Game 2. While Horford is still out, Smart has been upgraded to probable. Having the DPOY on the floor is a big deal. It's also going to help having seen what Miami wants to do offensively. Plus, it's unlikely the Heat play as well offensively (shot 49% from the field and got 41 points from Jimmy Butler). Give me the UNDER 208! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Over/Under Total No-Brainer (Braves/Brewers UNDER 8) 

*Analysis Coming* 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (UNDER 8.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Thursday's matchups between the Twins and Astros. Houston will have Luis Garcia on the mound, while Minnesota gives the rock to Josh Winder. These are not starters the general public sees as elite, but they are off to really good starts in 2022 and that's where I feel the value comes from. 

Garcia has made 5 starts and has posted a 3.45 ERA with a sensational 0.872 WHIP. He's really been good on the road, posting a 1.80 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in two starts. Winder's only made 2 starts, but he's been nearly perfect, giving up 0 ER on just 5 hits and 1 BB with 15 K's in 12 innings. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10

NBA Playoffs Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 214.5) 

I will take my chances with the UNDER 214.5 in Game 5 between the Celtics and Bucks. I always lean UNDER in Game 5 when a series is tied 2-2, as it just has that Game 7 feel to it with both teams desperately wanting to get a win to take control of the series. We saw the UNDER cash in this spot in both games last night. 

The two teams did go OVER the total in Game 4, but note that was the first time this entire postseason that a game involving the Bucks finished OVER the total. UNDER is 8-1. I just think that given what's at stake, it's going to be hard for both teams to get to 100 points and I wouldn't be shocked if neither team did. Give me the UNDER 214.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8) 

I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER 8 in Tuesday's MLB matchup between the Diamondbacks and Marlins. I just don't see a lot of runs being scored with the two guys who are starting this game. 

Miami's Jesus Luzardo has really been impressive early on. He had one sub-par outing against the Cardinals. The rest have been great. In 4 of his 5 starts he's given up 2 or fewer runs. He's also making a lot of guys swing and miss. He's got 35 K's in 26 1/3 innings. 

Madison Bumgarner is no longer overpowering hitters, but almost feels like the lack of strikeouts have him way undervalued. He's sitting there with a 1.50 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in 6 starts. Having pitched just 1 inning (was ejected from his last start) since 4/29, he should be in prime form tonight. Give me the UNDER 8! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 212) 

We just keep playing the UNDER in the Bucks playoff games and will continue to do so as long as the books keep giving us this value. The UNDER is a perfect 7-0 in Milwaukee's 7 playoffs games (5-0 in Bulls series and now 3-0 in this series). 

I've said it multiple times playing the UNDER in this series that I just think these two teams are so good defensively that it's going to be a struggle for them to get to 100 points. We have seen each team fail to score 90 in a game this series. We also saw a mere 195 points scored in Game 2 with both teams shooting close to 47% from the field. Give me the UNDER 212! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Smart Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 213)

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 213 in Game 3 between the Bucks and Celtics. The UNDER has cashed in each of the first two games of this series and is now a perfect 7-0 in Milwaukee's 7 playoff games. 

These are two of the best defensive teams in the league. With the series tied at 1-1, you got to think both of these teams are going to be locked in on the defensive side of the ball. Keep in mind we saw both teams shoot close to 47% in Game 2 and yet they still only combined for 195 points. I've said it in each of the first two games. It's going to be a struggle for both teams to hit that 100 point mark. Give me the UNDER 213! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8.5)

I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Friday's matchup between Colorado and Arizona. I think a lot of people think the Rockies are this strong offensive team because of all the runs they score at home, which in turn creates value when they are on the road. Colorado is only scoring 3.1 runs/game away from home. Arizona can't score at home. Dbacks are averaging just 2.9 runs/game at home in 2022. 

We also got two really good and very underrated starters going in Chad Kuhl and Merrill Kelly. Kuhl has a 1.90 ERA and 0.845 WHIP in 4 starts. Kelly has a 1.27 ERA and 1.024 WHIP in 5 starts. UNDER is 4-0 in Kuhl's 4 starts and 4-1 in Kelly's 5 starts. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Situational VEGAS INSIDER (UNDER 207.5)

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 207.5 in Game 2 between the Heat and 76ers. We played and won on the UNDER at 209 in Game 1. That game ended with Miami winning 106-92. It was almost like Miami flipped a switch in the 2nd half, as they went from being down 50-51 to winning by 14. 76ers only managed 41 points in the 2nd half. I don't think it's going to get any easier for them offensively now that Miami knows what they want to do without Embiid. 

Philly isn't going to just lie down because they don't have Embiid. They will fight and I think they are good enough defensively to keep the Heat's offense in check, especially with Miami having to play another game without point guard Kyle Lowry. I just think it will once again be a struggle for both of these teams to get to 100. Give me the UNDER 207.5! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 10) 

I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 10 in Tuesday's series opener between the Rockies and Nationals. Washington's offense hasn't been great overall so far in 2022, but they are coming off their best 3-game series at San Francisco. Nationals put up 25 runs on 35 hits against the Giants and did so with SF sending out a pretty good trio of starters in Wood, Webb and Cobb. 

Not only does that offense get the benefit of hitting at the best offensive park in baseball at Coors Field, but the Rockies German Marquez has a 5.57 ERA and 1.524 WHIP in 4 starts and a 7.71 ERA and 2.071 WHIP in his last 3 outings. 

Rockies just scored 24 runs, hitting double-digits twice, in their 3 game series at home against the Reds. They are hitting .287 with a .356 OBP as a team at home this year. Washington's Erik Fedde has a 6.00 ERA and 1.556 WHIP in 4 starts and that's come against the Marlins, Dbacks, Pirates and Mets. Give me the OVER 10! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 209)

I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER at 209 in Game 1 between the 76ers and Heat. Two big names for both sides will be out of this one. Joel Embiid is out until at least Game 3 and Kyle Lowry will miss the game for Miami. 

Embiid is an absolute massive blow to the 76ers, especially on the offensive side of the ball. I just don't see the likes of Harden/Maxey/Harris having a lot of success against this Miami defense. There's going to be no easy buckets for Philly. 

Embiid is also a big part of the 76ers' defense, but they can still be good on that side without him. It also helps them that the Lowry, Miami's floor general, won't be on the floor. I wouldn't be surprised at all if both teams failed to reach 100 points. Give me the UNDER 209! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB OVER/UNDER Total NO-BRAINER (Over 10.5) 

I will take my chances with the Rockies and Reds going OVER the total of 10.5 on Sunday. I've not played many overs this year, but this is one that I like quite a bit. You always feel a lot better about needing runs in games played at Coors Field. 

Even more so when you got a sub-par pitching matchup like we have in this one. Cincinnati is going with Reiver Sanmartin, who is 0-3 with a 16.04 ERA and 2.533 WHIP in 3 starts. He's given up at least 5 runs in each of his outings. 

Colorado will have Kyle Freeland on the mound. He's 0-3 with a 6.16 ERA and 1.684 WHIP in 4 starts. His only decent outing has came on the road. He's got a 7.71 ERA and 1.786 WHIP in his 3 home starts. Even a bad Reds offense should manage at least 5 runs in this one. Give me the OVER 10.5! 

Confidence Rating: 7 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Round 2 VEGAS INSIDER (Under 218) 

I absolutely love the UNDER at 218 in Game 1 of the Celtics/Bucks series. I think these are two of the best defensive teams in the league. The transformation that Boston has had defensively from the start of the year to now is pretty remarkable.

That defense just made KD look like an average player in their sweep of the Nets in the first round. Now they face a Bucks team down one of their top scorers in Middleton.

Milwaukee might not be on the Celtics level defensively, but they aren't far behind. The Bucks defense dominated a pretty good Bulls offense in the first round. It will be much harder against Boston, but they are up to the task. Getting to 100 points will be a struggle for both sides. Give me the UNDER 218! 

Confidence Rating: 9 (Scale of 1-10)

MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 7.5) 

I will take my chances with the UNDER 7.5 in Saturday's AL matchup between the Rays and Twins. Just love the pitching matchup in his one and runs aren't easy to come by at Tampa Bay.

Rays will have Shane McClanahan on the mound. He's got a 2.45 ERA and 0.955 WHIP in 4 starts. Arguably his best outing coming in his last start, where he allowed just 2 runs in 7 innings at home against the Red Sox. 

Chris Archer will get the ball for the Twins. He still walks too many guys, but he's only given up 4 ER on 9 hits in 11 1/3 innings. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

Confidence Rating: 7 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs VEGAS INSIDER (Under 229)

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 229 in Game 6 between the Timberwolves and Grizzlies. UNDER has cashed in 3 of the last 4 games in the series. As good as these two offenses are, a lot has to go right for a playoff game to get into the 230s, especially this late in a series when the teams know all the offensive sets the other team wants to run. Strictly a value play for me. Give me the UNDER 229! 

Confidence Rating: 7 (Scale of 1-10)