9* MLB - Cubs/Padres SHARP STAKE 

PLAY ON CUBS/PADRES UNDER 8

9* MLB Blue Jays/Mets SHARP STAKE 

PLAY ON BLUE JAYS/METS UNDER 8.5

9* MLB Brewers/Reds SHARP STAKE 

PLAY ON BREWERS/REDS OVER 10

10* NBA Heat/Nuggets VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON HEAT/NUGGETS OVER 219

9* MLB Reds/Red Sox SHARP STAKE 

PLAY ON REDS/RED SOX OVER 10

10* NBA Celtics/Heat VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON CELTICS/HEAT UNDER 210.5

10* MLB Red Sox/Dbacks VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON RED SOX/DBACKS OVER 9.5

9* MLB Mets/Cubs SHARP STAKE

PLAY ON METS/CUBS UNDER 8.5

10* MLB Cards/Reds VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON CARDINALS/REDS OVER 10

9* MLB Angels/Twins SHARP STAKE

PLAY ON ANGELS/TWINS UNDER 9

10* NBA Heat/Celtics VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON HEAT/CELTICS UNDER 216

9* MLB Blue Jays/Yankees SHARP STAKE

PLAY ON BLUE JAYS/YANKEES UNDER 8

9* MLB Cubs/Twins SHARP STAKE 

PLAY ON CUBS/TWINS UNER 7.5

9* MLB Pirates/Orioles SHARP STAKE 

PLAY ON PIRATES/ORIOLES OVER 8.5

7* MLB Padres/Twins Free Pick

PLAY ON PADRES/TWINS UNDER 8

I see enough value with the UNDER at 8 in Thursday's matchup between the Twins and Padres to invest some bankroll. Really good starting pitching matchup with Yu Darvish and Bailey Ober. I know Darvish has had a couple clunkers early on, but 4 of the 6 starts have been really good. You also got to factor in how poorly the Twins are swinging the bat right now. Minnesota has scored a total of 6 runs over their last 4 games. Padres have an offense that can score a bunch in a hurry, but they haven't been doing that much of late. Not an ideal spot to get it going with Minnesota sending out Bailey Ober. He's got a 0.98 ERA and 0.872 WHIP in his 3 starts. Give me the UNDER 8! 

**BEST BET THURSDAY (30-9 run on Top Plays)** Don't miss out on your chance to cash in a huge profit on the hardwood tonight with Lee's 10* NBA Celtics/76ers VEGAS INSIDER!

*50-25 (68%) All-Sports Run*

*30-9 Run on Top Plays**

**17-2 NBA Playoffs Run (10-0 L10)**

This package is GUARANTEED to profit or you will get his next NBA card for FREE!

9* MLB Cardinals/Cubs SHARP STAKE 

PLAY ON CARDINALS/CUBS UNDER 7.5

10* NBA Warriors/Lakers VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON WARRIORS/LAKERS UNDER 227.5

10* MLB Rockies/Pirates VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON ROCKIES/PIRATES UNDER 8.5

10* NBA 76ers/Celtics VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON 76ERS/CELTICS UNDER 217

9* MLB Phillies/Dodgers SHARP STAKE

PLAY ON PHILLIES/DODGERS UNDER 8

10* MLB Cubs/Nationals VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON CUBS/NATIONALS UNDER 8.5

10* NBA Suns/Nuggets VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON SUNS/NUGGETS OVER 226

10* NL East Over/Under PLAY OF THE MONTH

PLAY ON NATIONALS/METS UNDER 8.5

9* MLB Astros/Rays SHARP STAKE

PLAY ON ASTROS/RAYS UNDER 8.5

9* MLB Tigers/Orioles SHARP STAKE 

PLAY ON TIGERS/ORIOLES UNDER 8

9* MLB Reds/Pirates SHARP STAKE 

PLAY ON REDS/PIRATES UNDER 8.5

9* MLB Padres/Dbacks SHARP STAKE 

PLAY ON PADRES/DIAMONDBACKS OVER 9.5

9* MLB Blue Jays/Astros SHARP STAKE 

PLAY ON BLUE JAYS/ASTROS OVER 9

9* MLB Pirates/Rockies SHARP STAKE 

PLAY PIRATES/ROCKIES OVER 12.5

10* MLB Angels/Yankees VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON ANGELS/YANKEES OVER 9 

9* MLB Angels/Red Sox SHARP STAKE 

PLAY ON ANGELS/RED SOX UNDER 8

9* MLB Brewers/Padres SHARP STAKE 

PLAY ON BREWERS/PADRES UNDER 8

10* NBA Thunder/Pelicans PLAYOFF INSIDER

PLAY ON THUNDER/PELICANS UNDER 227

9* MLB - Royals/Giants SHARP STAKE 

PLAY ON ROYALS/GIANTS UNDER 8.5

9* NBA Pacers/Pistons SHARP STAKE

PLAY ON PISTONS/PACERS OVER 229

10* NBA Lakers/Clippers VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON LAKERS/CLIPPERS UNDER 230

9* MLB - Giants/White Sox SHARP STAKE

PLAY ON GIANTS/WHITE SOX UNDER 7.5

9* MLB - Cubs/Reds SHARP STAKE

PLAY ON CUBS/REDS UNDER 9

9* MLB - Cubs/Reds SHARP STAKE 

PLAY ON CUBS/REDS OVER 9 

9* MLB Braves/Nationals SHARP STAKE 

PLAY ON BRAVES/NATIONALS UNDER 8.5

9* NBA Lakers/Wolves SHARP STAKE 

PLAY ON LAKERS/WOLVES OVER 232

10* MLB - Orioles/Red Sox VEGAS INSIDER 

*PLAY ON ORIOLES/RED SOX UNDER 9*

10* NBA Over/Under PLAY OF THE MONTH

PLAY ON MAVS/GRIZZLIES OVER 229.5:

These two teams should have no problem eclipsing 230 points. I believe there's some value with this total due to the questionable tags on both Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic. I think both play. Irving returned from a 3-game absence on Friday and played 39 minutes. Doncic didn't play in that game, but he did practice fully on Thursday. Dallas has had the last two days off. That's quite a boost to their offense, which is averaging just 110.0 ppg over their last 5. 

Key is that Doncic and Irving are not good defenders. You don't got much shot containing this Memphis offense, even without Morant, if you aren't fully connected on the defensive end. Grizzlies defense hasn't been great of late, giving up 119+ in each of their last 3. Give me the OVER 229.5! 

9* NCAA Tournament Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER

PLAY ON ILLINOIS/ARKANSAS UNDER 145:

I have to take my chances with the UNDER 145 in Thursday's matchup between No. 8 seed Arkansas and No. 9 seed Illinois. I think the fact that both of these teams like to play at a decent tempo (Arkansas 55th, Illinois 71st) has created value on the UNDER. 

Neither of these teams shoot the ball well from deep and both struggle at the foul line. Arkansas ranks 304th in 3PT% and 287th in FT%. Illinois is even worse, ranking 330th in 3PT% and 308th in FT%. There's going to be a lot of 2PT shots in this one and you have an Illinois team that ranks 16th in the country in defending the 2PT shot. Arkansas isn't that good, but are a respectable 47th. Give me the UNDER 145! 

10* NBA Non-Conf TOTAL OF THE WEEK

PLAY ON RAPTORS/CLIPPERS OVER 229: 

I don't see these two teams having any problem eclipsing 230 points in this game. Clippers have been in a lot of high-scoring games of late. OVER is 6-2 in LA's last 8 games. In 4 of their last 6, they have scored and allowed 120+ points in the same game. OVER is 3-0 in the last 3 for the Raptors. Toronto should be able to take advantage of the Clippers lackluster defense. I also don't see them slowing down LA's offense, especially on the road. Give me the OVER 229! 

10* NBA Over/Under VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON PELICANS/KINGS OVER 236.5:

Until the Kings cool off or start trying on the defensive end, the OVER has to be in serious consideration whenever they play. Since returning from the All-Star break, Sacramento has played 6 games and scored at least 123 in every game (over 130 points 3 times). They have shot better than 50% from the field in all of these games. 

During this run the Kings have allowed at least 115 points in every game. If we just take the two low marks during this run (123 and 115) that puts us at 238 points. The total should at least be that and even then I think there's value with the OVER. Give me the OVER 236.5! 

9* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER

PLAY ON MAVS/SUNS OVER 232.5:

I'll take my chances with the OVER 232.5 in Sunday's big Western Conference showdown between the Mavs and Suns. No two teams got better offensively than Dallas and Phoenix at the trade deadline. The Mavs added in Kyrie Irving to give them maybe the best 1-2 punch in the league with him and Luka. Suns added in Kevin Durant, giving them quite a 1-2 punch of their own with him and Booker. Phoenix also has some other really good players. Both these teams can score 120 points in their sleep. Give me the OVER 232.5! 

10* NCAAB Big 12 Total PLAY OF THE MONTH

PLAY ON IOWA STATE/WEST VIRGINIA OVER 134: I'm well aware of how bad the Cyclones offense has been in their last 3 games. Really bad. I like them to get back on track playing on their home floor. West Virginia is not a great defensive team and they have struggled to play well on that side of the ball in road games. They are allowing 46.6% shooting from the field away from home. ISU, who has shot 31% or worse twice in their last 3 games, is shooting 46.5% from the field in home games this season. 

These are also two teams that are really good at playing in chaos. ISU is No. 2 in the country in TO% defense. WV is a solid 50th in that department, they do an amazing job of speeding up their opponents with that press. Mountaineer opponents only average 16.7 seconds per possession, which is the 14th best mark in the country. 

I also look at the recent matchups between these two teams. Going back to the 2013 season, the lowest combined score in a game between ISU/W Virginia is 135 points back in 2020. The OVER is 13-1 in the L14 meetings! They combined for 147 points in a 76-71 Mountaineer win at home back on Feb. 8th. Give me the OVER 134! 

9* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER 

PLAY ON LAKERS/MAVS OVER 235.5

I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 235.5 in Sunday's big Western Conference clash between the Lakers and Mavs. It's Lebron James/Anthony Davis vs Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic. For starters, I don't think either of these teams are equipped to stop the opposing teams stars. Both of which I feel got much better offensively at the trade deadline. Lakers finally got some outside shooting and Dallas has two of the best offensive players in the game. 

When I heard about the Irving trade, the OVER is something I knew I would be leaning heavily towards in Dallas games. Irving makes them drastically better offensively and worse defensively. In the two games so far with Luka and Irving on the floor together, Dallas has scored 133 and 142 points. Both of those games eclipsed the 250 mark. Mavs have allowed each of their last 5 opponents to shoot 52% or better from the field. I think both teams easily get into the 120s. Give me the OVER 235.5! 

9* NBA Over/Under TOTAL NO-BRAINER 

PLAY ON PISTONS/MAGIC OVER 226.5: I'm a little surprised this total is south of 230. These two teams aren't very good on defense to begin with. I don't see either of these non-playoff contending teams being all that locked in defensively in the first game back from the All-Star break. I think a talented Magic team is going to be eager to push the pace and attack this Pistons defense. Both teams should be willing to push the tempo given how fresh their legs are going to feel after the long break. 

OVER is 8-1 in Orlando's 9 home games this season when facing a bad defensive team that is allowing 116 or more ppg. Average combined score in these games was 242.4. Give me the OVER 226.5! 

10* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON OHIO STATE/IOWA OVER 152.5: I wanted to bet Iowa in this game, but I feel like the number here has been inflated to where there's just not enough value. I like the Hawkeyes largely because of how good they have been at home. Thing is, not only have they been great (11-3 ATS), the OVER has been great (10-4). 

That makes sense. Iowa likes to play super fast. While they have some good offensive players and are very efficiency (5th in the country), they aren't a great 3-PT shooting team (134th). Teams tend to shoot better at home. That's definitely the case for Iowa. Hawkeyes are scoring 89.0 ppg and shooting 38.5% at home this season (80.6 ppg and 35.1% on the season). 

Overs are also great at home with Iowa, because they aren't a very good defensive team. Opposing teams are shooting 48.6% from the field and 38% from 3 against them in conference play. Buckeyes are a shocking 1-11 over their last 12 games, but are 25th in offensive efficiency. They scored 93 points on 56.3% shooting. I think both teams easily eclipse the 70 point mark and this thing flies past the number. Give me the OVER 152.5! 

10* NBA Over/Under PLAY OF THE WEEK

PLAY ON MAVS/NUGGETS OVER 231.5: I'll take my chances with the OVER 231.5 in Wednesday's matchup between the Mavs and Nuggets. I mentioned this when I took the OVER in the Mavs' last game, I just don't think the books have properly adjusted for how much better the Mavs got offensively when they adding in Kyrie Irving. Teaming two of the NBA's most skilled offensive players together. We are just in the baby stages of this and it looks great. At least offensively. The defense is a different story. It's been bad and that was to be expected. The had to give up some good depth pieces in that trade and Irving's not exactly known for his defense. 

All of it adds up the total just not being high-enough. I think on a below-average night this Mavs offense will put up close to 120. With Dallas' defensive struggles and how good the Nuggets are offensively, they too should easily hit 120. This total should be closer to 240. Give me the OVER 231.5! 

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER 

Play on Timberwolves/Mavericks OVER 231.5: I just think there's tremendous value with the OVER in Mavs games right now. Dallas, who already had one of the best offensive players in the NBA in Doncic, added one of the best offensive players in the NBA in Kyrie Irving. Everything so far, looks like its going to work. Kyrie is playing amazing and in their first game with Irving/Doncic, the Mavs shot 52% from the field, with 20 made 3-pointers. Key here to the OVER, is while Irving is a nightmare on offense, he's not the best defendender. In that same game, Dallas allowed the Kings to shoot 51% from the field, as they lost 128-133 in OT. 

First game they will be together at home and they are facing a Timberwolves team that is giving up 116.8 ppg on the road this season and have allowed 123.4 ppg on 53% shooting over their last 5 games. Feels like a game where the Mavs can easily hit 130 points. That alone should have this total in the 240s. Give me the OVER 231.5! 

9* NBA Over/UNDER Total NO-BRAINER 

PLAY ON BULLS/CAVS UNDER 224: I'll take my chances with the UNDER 224 in Saturday's division matchup between the Bulls and Cavaliers. Last time these two teams played it was an all-out shootout with Donovan Mitchell scoring 71 points in a 145-134 Cavs win. That was an outlier in this series. The two teams had played each 2 days prior and combined for just 205 points. The previous 6 meetings in the series had all saw 124 or fewer points. 

Cleveland definitely won't be looking to push the pace in this one, as they will be in the 2nd of a back-to-back after a late tip-off (10:00 EST) at New Orleans on Friday. It will also be the Cavs 5th game in 7 days. You have to think Cleveland will be looking to play this game at a snails pace. Which is saying something for the team that ranks dead last in pace.

I also don't like this matchup for Chicago's offense. The Bulls do the majority of their scoring inside the 3-point line. That plays right into the strength of this Cleveland defense. Chicago also hasn't looked in sync offensively of late, scoring just 89 in a blowout loss at Memphis on Tuesday and then 105 at Brooklyn on Thursday. Give me the UNDER 224! 

9* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER 

PLAY ON KINGS/WOLVES OVER 237.5:

10* NBA Over/Under PLAY OF THE WEEK

PLAY ON RAPTORS/KINGS OVER 237: I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 237 in Wednesday's non-conference clash between the Raptors and Kings. 

I think the spread can sometimes give you a good feel for how the books see the game playing out. The fact that Toronto was just a 4.5-point dog when the line opened and has dropped to 3.5, tells me the books like the Raptors in this spot. Given that the Raptors have are 6-games under .500 and losers of 3 of their last 4, the books know everyone is going to be on Sacramento, given the Kings come in having won 7 of their last 8 and fresh off a 133-100 blowout win over the Grizzlies. 

I'm not quite ready to bet against the Kings as a small home favorite, but I do think there's big time value with the OVER. Given how good the Kings offense is, especially at home (124.7 ppg), you have to think the only way for Toronto to cover is for them to win in a shootout. I agree and I think I'm with the books in that we aren't going to get a huge effort defensively from Sacramento in this game. 

On the flip side, the Raptors just played a 3-game road trip at New York, Milwaukee and Minnesota, where they gave up 121 to the Knicks, 130 to the Bucks and 128 to the T-Wolves. This is one of those games where I will be shocked if both teams don't hit at least 120 points. Give me the OVER 237! 

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON UNDER 239.5: The total here is simply too high given the tough scheduling spots we find both of these teams. I got to think both of these teams are going to be looking to slow the tempo down. 

The Hawks are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights after a 139-124 blowout win over the Knicks on Friday and then a 118-122 loss at home to the Hornets on Saturday. Worth noting it's just not a bad short-term stretch for rest with the Hawks. This will also be their 7th game in the last 11 days. As for the Bulls, they are playing on a full 3 days of rest, but their last game was played in Paris. 

For this game to go over the number, both teams are likely going to have to score in the 120's. I wouldn't be shocked if neither team got to 120. Give me the UNDER 238.5! 

8* NBA Over/Under TOTAL MASSACRE: Kings/Lakers OVER 245.5

It's crazy to think totals have got to this point in the regular season. This looks more like a total you would see back in the day at an NBA All-Star game. With that said, I don't know how you don't take a stab at the OVER 245.5 in Wednesday's game between the Lakers and Kings. 

Sacramento games have been ridiculous of late. Kings have seen a combined score of 247 or more points in 5 straight games. Only once in their last 10 games have they played in a game that finished with fewer than 230 points. 

It's not quite that extreme for the Lakers, but they are another team that is all offense and no defense. It's why LA is 2-3 in their last 5 games, despite averaging 122.4 ppg during this stretch. It's because their defense has given up 124.0 ppg in those 5 games. 

These two teams played back on Jan. 7th and it was a shootout. The two combined for 270 points in the Lakers 136-134 win. Kings have scored at least 132 points in their last 5. If they hit 130 in this one, we need just 115 from LA to cash. I think both teams could once again get into the 230s. Give me the OVER 245.5! 

10* NFL Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Cowboys/Bucs OVER 45.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 45.5 in Monday's NFC Wild Card showdown between the Cowboys and Bucs. I'm well aware that Tampa Bay beat Dallas by a score of just 19-3 during the regular-season. That was back in Week 1. 

I'm focused more on what I've seen from these two teams over the last 4-6 weeks of the regular-season. For Dallas, they have really had to rely heavily on their offense, as the defense that looked so good early on in the year has been exposed on several occasions. The OVER had cashed in 5 straight before they went UNDER in their last two. Thing is in Week 17 they played at the Titans who have no offense and were resting guys leading up to their big game vs the Jags in Week 18. Dallas then had a pretty meaningless game in Week 18 at Washington and it showed in their 6-26 loss. 

Tampa Bay's defense is good and does matchup well with their ability to stop the run, but Dak should be able to exploit this season for the Bucs. TB was great at holding bad offenses with average QBs in check, but they struggled against the more efficient QBs. 

As for the Tampa Bay offense, I think they showed a lot of good signs down the stretch. Brady threw for 411 yards in their division-clinching win over the Panthers in Week 17. I'm pretty confident the Bucs will move the ball in this one. I just think there's going to be more than enough scoring to get this game into the 50s. Give me the OVER 45.5! 

9* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR: Heat/Hawks UNDER 224.5

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 224.5 in Monday's NBA matchup between the Hawks and Heat. I'm expecting a much more defensive battle than what the books are anticipating between these two Southeast rivals. 

Miami is one of the few UNDER teams left in the NBA. Heat are Top 5 in the NBA in defensive efficiency, bottom 10 in offensive efficiency and bottom 10 in Pace. UNDER has cashed in 6 of their last 7 games and is 14-7 (67%) in road games this year. 

Atlanta does like to push the pace with their dynamic backcourt of Murray and Young, but it doesn't always result in great shots. Hawks are bottom 10 in the league in offensive efficiency. What people don't realize with Atlanta is they are a pretty good defensive team. Hawks are12th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They come in having seen the UNDER cash in each of their last 4 games. 

They only combined for 204 points in the Heat's 106-98 win at Atlanta earlier this season and if you back over their last 8 meetings the UNDER is 7-0-1. Give me the UNDER 224.5! 

8* NBA Over/UNDER Total ANNIHILATOR: 76ers/Jazz OVER 235

I'll take my chances with the OVER 235 in Saturday's NBA non-conference matchup between the 76ers and Jazz. Philadelphia is an offensive juggernaut and I don't see this Utah defense putting up much of a fight in this one, especially not in the second game of a back-to-back after last night's hard fought 112-108 win over the Magic. 76ers should also be motivated after Thursday's 114-133 embarrassing loss at home to the Thunder. It was a rare off night shooting. This team had scored 120 or more in 4 of their previous 5 games. Jazz are giving up 117 ppg over their last 5 and don't have anyone to stop Embiid from doing as he pleases. Philly should do whatever they want offensively in this one and I'll count on Utah's offense to do enough to get us over the mark. Give me the OVER 235! 

8* NBA Over/Under Total MASSACRE: Pelicans/Pistons OVER 233.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 233.5 in Friday's NBA matchup between the Pelicans and Pistons. These two teams should have no problem eclipsing this number. Detroit's limited defensively and just aren't giving much effort at all on that side of the ball of late. In their last 6 games they have allowed at least 119 points in each game. The lowest combined score in this 6-game stretch is 230, with 4 of the 6 eclipsing 240 points. 

New Orleans has scored 117, 132 and 114 in the first 3 games of their 5-game road trip. Even without Zion and Ingram, there's a lot of guys on this team that can put the ball in the basket. I think at the very least they score 115, more than likely getting into the 120s. 

Pelicans aren't exactly playing great defense without Zion and Ingram and are giving up 117.8 ppg on 48% shooting in road games year. OVER is 14-5-1 in their 20 road games to date. In their current 3-game road trip they have allowed 127 on 57% shooting to the Mavs, 112 on 51% shooting to the Wizards and 125 on 48% shooting at Boston. Pistons just put up 135 points on 60% shooting in their last game at home vs the Timberwolves. Detroit is scoring 114.6 ppg on 47% shooting at home and come in averaging 118.6 ppg on 49% shooting in their last 5. Give me the OVER 233.5! 

8* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR: Thunder/76ers OVER 232.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 232.5 in Thursday's NBA matchup between the 76ers and Thunder. Philly is an offensive juggernaut and just got back two of their top scorers in Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. In Embiid's first game back after missing a few games, they put up 147 points on 61% shooting in Tuesday's blowout win at home over the Pistons. 76ers have scored 120 or more in 4 of their last 5 games, all 5 of which have gone over the total. OVER is 9-1 in Philly's last 10 games overall. 

OKC has the goods to at least try to keep this game close and push this thing past the total. Thunder come in scoring 124.6 ppg over their last 5. All 5 going OVER the total. They are also giving up 118.3 ppg on the road this season. I just don't feel the books have adjusted the number enough for this one. Give me the OVER 232.5! 

10* NCAAB Big Ten TOTAL OF THE MONTH: Rutgers/Northwestern UNDER 126.5

I love the UNDER 126.5 in Wednesday's Big Ten matchup between Rutgers and Northwestern. These aren't just two of the best defensive teams in the Big Ten, they are two of the best in the country. With two sub-par offenses on the court and two teams that prefer a slower pace, it will be a struggle for either team to get to 60 points. 

Northwestern is No. 10 in the country in defensive efficiency and 22nd in Effective FG%. Rutgers is No. 242 in effective FG% offense. Scarlet Knights are 282nd in 3P% and are facing a Northwestern defense that is No. 2 in 2P% defense. 

Rutgers is No. 3 in defensive efficiency and No. 9 in effective FG% defense. They are No. 7 in 3P% defense and No. 27 in 2P% defense. Northwestern is No. 337 in effective offensive FG%, No. 270 in 3P% and No. 341 in 2P%. 

Add in Rutgers being No. 246 in adjusted tempo and Northwestern being No. 232, I just don't know where the points are going to come from to get this close to this total. Give me the UNDER 126.5! 

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Magic/Blazers OVER 229.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 229.5 in Tuesday's matchup between the Magic and Blazers. I don't see these two teams having much trouble eclipsing 230 points. Orlando will be playing this game on no rest after last night's 111-136 loss at Sacramento. OVER is 5-2 in the second leg of back-to-back games with Orlando this season. Magic are giving up 120 ppg in this spot. OVER is 4-1 in Portland's last 5 home games, with the lone exception being a game against the Hornets that went UNDER despite the two teams combining for 237 points. Blazers have put up 127.2 ppg during this 5-game home stretch. 

You got to go into this game expecting Portland to at the very least put up 120 points, which means we would need just 110 from Orlando to cash this ticket. A mark the Magic have hit in 13 of their last 16 games. Blazers allow 112.1 ppg on the season. I just think with how easy it's going to be on offense, the effort isn't going to be all that great on defense. As long as Orlando doesn't go ice cold in this game, we cash this easy. Give me the OVER 229.5! 

10* National Championship VEGAS INSIDER: TCU/Georgia OVER 63.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 63.5 in Monday's National Championship Game between TCU and Georgia. We saw all kinds of points being scored in the two Semifinal matchups with TCU beating Michigan 51-45 and Georgia knocking off Ohio State 42-41. I don't know if we will see this thing get into the 80's, but there should be no problem eclipsing the total of 63.5. 

TCU is simply built for high-scoring games. They have an elite offense and a sub-par defense. I don't see Georgia having any problems moving the ball up and down the field on this Horned Frogs stop unit. They were fortunate to only give up 45 points to the Wolverines in the Fiesta Bowl. 

The TCU offense did show me something with how well they moved the ball against a very good Michigan defense. The same Wolverines defense that held a potent Ohio State offense to just 23 points, giving up only 3 points in the 2nd half. We just saw the Buckeyes put up 41 on Georgia's defense. Not to mention the Bulldogs gave up 30 to LSU in the SEC title game. I think TCU can easily get into the 30s and I expect Georgia to as well. Give me the OVER 63.5! 

8* NBA Over/Under Total DESTROYER: 76ers/Pistons OVER 229.5

I'll take my chances on the OVER 229.5 in Sunday's NBA matchup between the 76ers and Pistons. Philly cashed in plenty of OVER's with Embiid on the floor, but I feel they are an even stronger OVER team without him. Embiid is an unstoppable force on the offensive end, but he's also a beast inside defensively.

I believe the 76ers lose more on defense than they do on offense when he's out. Their offense also uses less clock not having to feed the ball inside to him and let him play 1-on-1. OVER has hit in 7 of their last 8 games. In the last two without Embiid they combined for 255 with the Pacers and 238 with the Bulls.

Detroit's not a team I think they are going to turn it up defensively and that defenses figures to struggle even more without Embiid on the road. Pistons are also not a good defensive team. Detroit has allowed 119 or more in 6 of their last 8. Give me the OVER 229.5! 

9* NFL Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR: Vikings/Bears OVER 42.5

*Analysis Coming* 

9* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Wizards/Thunder OVER 231.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 231.5 in Friday's NBA matchup between the Wizards and Thunder. I don't see these two teams having any trouble eclipsing this mark. OKC is averaging 118.3 ppg at home this season and come in averaging 120.8 ppg over their last 5. The average combined score in their home games is 233.9. 

Thunder are allowing 118.6 ppg in their last 5 and will be facing a Wizards offense that has put in an average of 118.6 ppg in their last 5. OVER is 4-2 in OKC's last 6 games with one of those UNDERS being in a game where they combined for 234 points (total was 238.5). In their last 6 games, 5 have seen a combined score of 234 or more. 

OVER is 30-14 in the Wizards last 44 non-conference games and 23-10 in their last 33 after playing 2 straight on the road. OVER is 26-12 in the Thunder's last 38 at home in non-conference games. Give me the OVER 231.5

9* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR: Blazers/Pacers OVER 236

I'll take my chances with the OVER 236 in Friday's matchup between the Blazers and Pacers. I really like these teams to at the very least get into the 240s. Just look at how high-scoring Indiana's games have been of late. In the Pacers last 5 games, they are scoring 128.6 ppg and giving up 122.6 ppg for an average combined score of 251.2 ppg. 

As you might have guessed, Indiana likes to push the pace and should be able to dictate the tempo at home in this one. In their last 4 games they have faced 3 of the slower teams in terms of pace in the Cavs, Clippers and 76ers. They combined for 261 with Cleveland, 261 against LA and 255 with Philly. 

OVER is 16-4 in the Pacers last 20 home games with a total of 230 or more and 13-4 in their last 17 at home vs a marginal winning team (WP between 51% to 60%). OVER is also 24-11 in Portland's last 35 non-conference road games. Give me the OVER 236! 

10* NBA Over/Under VEGAS INSIDER: Clippers/Nuggets OVER 227.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 227.5 in Thursday's showdown between the Clippers and Nuggets. LA could be without Paul George for this game, which is a big loss for the Clippers offense. However, they should be just fine offensively against a leaky Denver defense that ranks 27th in defensive efficiency. 

These two teams combined for 110 in their previous meeting this season, but LA didn't have George or Kawhi Leonard. Kawhi has been playing consistently for a good stretch now and has put in 20+ points in 3 of his last 4 games. John Wall tormented Denver's defense for 23 points on 8 of 10 shooting in that first meeting. Leonard and Wall should provide a solid 1-2 punch in this one. 

As for the Clippers defense, it's certainly not as good without George on the floor. LA is a team that I think struggles to defend the big men inside and Denver has the best in the business down low in Jokic. Nuggets offense as a whole ranks 2nd in the NBA behind only the Celtics in offensive efficiency. Give me the OVER 227.5! 

10* NBA - Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH: Spurs/Knicks OVER 226.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 226.5 in Wednesday's game between the Spurs and Knicks. There's not much you really need to look at here besides how recent San Antonio games have gone. The OVER has cashed in 8 straight and 11 of the last 12 games the Spurs have played. The only game that didn't was against the Heat, who play at one of the slowest paces in the league. 

San Antonio has allowed at least 115 points in 7 straight games, 6 times giving up 122 or more. They are scoring 115.5 ppg over their last 13. This team is built for shootouts and I just don't think this total should be less than 230. 

Knicks are extremely well rested. Their only game so far in January was Monday's 102-83 win at home over the Suns, where they coasted after getting a big lead early. I don't see them having any problem scoring 120+ points in this one. Spurs at the very least should give us around 110. That's more than enough to cash this ticket. Give me the OVER 226.5! 

10* NFL NFC South TOTAL OF THE YEAR: Panthers/Bucs UNDER 40.5

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 40.5 in Sunday's huge NFC South matchup between the Panthers and Bucs. 

I know Carolina just put up 37 points and 570 total yards in last week's 14-point win at home over the Lions, but that's not a very good Lions defense. It's also a Detroit defense that struggles to stop the run and this Panthers offense is built around their run game. 

Running the football on the Bucs will be a much more difficult task. Keep in mind the Panthers did run for 173 yards at home in their previous meeting with Tampa Bay and still only managed 21 points. 

Tampa Bay could only manage a field goal in that first matchup, as the game saw a mere 24 combined points. Things haven't gotten a whole lot better for the Bucs offense as the season has went on. TB has scored fewer than 20 points in 4 of their last 5 games with a 23-point showing against the Bengals being their highest output during this stretch. 

You add in 1st place in the NFC South being up for grabs and I just think we are going to have a playoff like atmosphere in Tampa Bay on Sunday. I think that only helps us, as I see both offenses playing more to not screw it up than taking a bunch of chances. Either way, I don't see this getting into the 40s. Give me the UNDER 40.5! 

9* NCAAB Over/Under TOTAL NO-BRAINER: Villanova/St. John's UNDER 146.5

I will take my chances with the UNDER 146.5. I just think the total here is a bit too high with the game being at Villanova and how slow paced the Wildcats prefer to play. Villanova is 349th out of 363 college DI teams in adjusted tempo. They are 316th in average possession length and 358th in opponents avg poss length (teams don't get quick shots on them).

They are just 6-5 overall, but have lost by just 2 to Michigan State and by 2 in OT to ISU. They have a win at home over a good Oklahoma team. They come in having won 4 straight. This team is going to be ready to go for their Big East Opener. 

St. Johns averages 80 ppg and 10th in tempo and 2nd in avg poss. length. I just don't think Villanova is going to let them play at their pace on their floor. The Red Storm's offensive numbers are also inflated due to them playing the 337th toughest schedule to this point. Give me the UNDER 146.5! 

9* NCAAF Boca Raton Bowl NO-BRAINER: Toledo/Liberty OVER 52.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 52.5 in Tuesday's matchup between the Toledo Rockets and Liberty Flames in the Boca Raton Bowl. I'm expecting a lot of fireworks in this one, as we have two fast-paced offenses that generate a bunch of explosive plays on the ground and thru the air against two defenses that have struggled on defense giving up the big play. 

Liberty's defense finished the season ranked 124th in explosive rushing allowed and 103rd in explosive pass plays allowed. Toledo was 114th in explosive rush allowed and 66th in explosive pass allowed. 

As for the tempo of this game, the Flames rank 37th in the FBS running a play every 24.9 seconds and the Rockets are 25th at 24.0 seconds between plays. So while both of these teams do like to run the ball, both teams should get more than enough possessions on offense to push this past the low total. Give me the OVER 52.5! 

9* NCAAF Myrtle Beach Bowl VEGAS INSIDER: UConn/Marshall UNDER 41

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 41 in Monday's game between UConn and Marshall at the Myrtle Beach Bowl. I just don't see much offense taking place in this one. I really have my concerns for the UConn offense. The Huskies are facing a very good Thundering Herd defense. Marshall only gave up 16.2 ppg, 293 ypg and 4.6 yards/play. That was against teams who on average put up 26.2 ppg, 293 ypg and 5.6 yards/play. 

The other big thing with that Marshall defense is how good they are at stopping the run. Thundering Herd only gave up 90 ypg and 2.8 yards/carry to opposing offenses this season. That's a problem for UConn, as they rely heavily on the run game to move the football. Huskies only threw it an average of 20 times a game and completed just 59.3% of those attempts for 107 ypg. 

It is a little better matchup for the Marshall offense, who also love to run the football, as UConn has had it's troubles at times this year stopping the run. However, this is also a Thundering Herd offense that was terrible at finishing drives with TDs. Marshall was 127th in the country in scoring opportunities, averaging just 2.7 points per trip inside the opponents 40-yard line. 

I just think with both teams wanting to run the football at all cost and the struggles both of these teams figure to have finding the endzone, a lot is going to have to go right for these two teams to eclipse the 40-point mark. Give me the UNDER 41! 

9* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Knicks/Pacers OVER 226.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 226.5 in Sunday's matchup between the Knicks and Pacers. New York is rolling right now. Knicks come in having won 6 in a row. While the defense has played well during this stretch, they are scoring a healthy 117.6 ppg over their last 5 games and that's with them only shooting 44.6% from the field in those 5 games. 

In this game they will be up against a Pacers defense that is giving up 115.8 ppg on 47% shooting for the season. Key here is I think Indiana can keep pace offensively, especially at home, where the Pacers are scoring 117.3 ppg on 47% shooting. 

These are also two teams that like to play fast. Indiana ranks 4th in the NBA in pace and the Knicks are 10th. Give me the OVER 226.5! 

9* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Kings/76ers OVER 228.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 228.5 in Tuesday's matchup that has the Kings visiting the 76ers. Philadelphia has exploded offensively over the last week behind the incredible play of Joel Embiid, who is averaging a ridiculous 41.3 ppg over the first 4 games he's played in December. The 76ers have scored 123 or more in each of their last 3 games. All 3 of those games seeing a combined score of 144 or more points. 

I'm expecting another big night offensively from Embiid and the 76ers against a sub-par Kings defense. Sacramento is also playing their 4th straight on the road, so I don't expect a big effort defensively in this one. 

As for the Kings offense, I think it's poised for a big bounce back effort after scoring just 99 points on 39.8% shooting in their last game. It was the first time this season the high-powered Sacramento offense was held under 100 points. There's also a good chance the Kings get back star point guard De'Aaron Fox, who was back at practice Monday after missing the last two games. 

OVER is 31-19 in the Kings last 50 games in the last 2 seasons after going UNDER the total in their previous game. OVER is also a perfect 7-0 this season when the 76ers are well-rested, playing 6 or less games in a 14 day stretch. Give me the OVER 228.5! 

9* NFL Over/Under VEGAS INSIDER: Patriots/Cardinals OVER 43.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 43.5 between the Patriots and Cardinals on Monday Night Football. The Patriots should be able to get their offense going in this one. Arizona has given up at least 25 points in 5 of their last 6 games. The only exception being a game at the Rams. I also think this New England defense isn't nearly as good as what people think. They have really had their way with some of the worst offensive teams in the league. When they have got matched up against a capable offense, they have struggled. Arizona has scored at least 20 in 5 of their last 6. Both teams should easily be in the 20s. Give me the OVER 43.5! 

9* NFL Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Dolphins/Chargers OVER 51.5

I'm going to take the OVER 51.5 between the Dolphins and Chargers. I see a lot of points being scored in this one. Miami's offense was held in check by a really good 49ers defense last week. I wasn't surprised at all by it. I played the 49ers because I loved how their defense matched up against the Dolphins pass happy offense. 

This is a much better matchup for Miami's offense. This is not a good Chargers defense and they are down some key guys on that side of the ball. Los Angeles is giving up 25.8 ppg 372 ypg and 6.3 yards/play on the season. They are down their best pass rusher and best all-around defensive player in Joey Bosa. They also have lost a top corner in J.C. Jackson and it's up in the air if star safety Derwin James will play. 

Miami had scored 30 or more points in 4 straight games prior to only producing 17 against the 49ers. I like them to eclipse that mark in this one, especially with the perfect conditions that come with playing at SoFi Stadium. 

That means we probably need just 24 from the Chargers to cash this OVER. I don't think they will have any trouble reaching that. I don't think this Miami defense is anywhere close to as good as what people think and it's not like they are playing great as it is. They certainly haven't performed well on the road. The Dolphins are giving up a staggering 32.8 ppg, 380 ypg and 6.2 yards/play on the road this season. The OVER is 5-1 in their 6 road games, with an average combined score of 59.0 points.

OVER is also 8-1 in the Dolphins last 9 road games vs quality offensive teams that are averaging 350 or more yards/game and 11-3 in the Chargers last 14 when playing against a team with a winning record. Give me the OVER 51.5! 

10* NCAAB Over/Under VEGAS INSIDER: Kansas/Missouri OVER 152.5

I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 152.5 in Saturday's matchup between Missouri and Kansas. This to me feels like a race to 80 points. Missouri may be 9-0 because of their schedule, but don't let that fool you into thinking this isn't a good team. I think they landed a gem at head coach in Dennis Gates from Cleveland State. They got 3 guys who can get buckets with returning leading scorer Kobe Brown (14.3 ppg), Cleveland State transfer D'Moi Hodge (16.7 ppg) and UNI transfer Noah Carter. They also get double-digits from Fordham/Clemson transfer Nick Honor (10.0 ppg) and UMass/Bradley transfer Sean East II (10.0). 

They are No. 12 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, No. 3 in Eff. FG% and No. 2 in 2-PT%. They play at the 4th fastest game tempo in the country and own the 8th shortest average in time of possession. They are No. 4 defensively in TO%. This team wants to run and gun and keep it movin.

I don't see Kansas playing keep away. I think the Jayhawks will gladly turn this into a track meet. I also think they have the talent int he backcourt to not turn it over crazy. If you avoid the turnover, this Missouri defense has plenty of holes. 

Kansas ranks 51st in least amount of shot clock used. Yes they played a lower-scoring games vs Tennessee, Duke and Wisconsin, but all those teams rank outside the Top 125 in shot clock time used. 

Kansas has played 3 games vs teams who rank in the Top 65 in this stat. They combined for 158 in a 82-76 win over NC State (No. 39), combined for 154 with NC State in a 80-74 win (No. 43) and 156 in a 91-65 win over Seton Hall (No. 63). Give me the OVER 152.5! 

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Bucks/Mavs UNDER 224.5

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 224.5 in Friday's showdown between the Bucks and Mavs on ESPN. I'm expecting a pretty big effort from these two in this nationally televised game. Milwaukee comes into this game ranked 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency and I really like the fact that they got an elite perimeter defender in Jrue Holiday to put on Luka Doncic. 

I also don't feel like the Mavs get enough respect on the defensive side of the ball at home. Dallas is only giving up 104.4 ppg on 45.9% shooting at home this year. The Bucks are also a different offensive team at home. Milwaukee is averaging 113.1 ppg on 46% shooting for the season, yet are scoring just 106.3 ppg on 43% shooting on the road. UNDER has cashed in 7 of the 9 road games for the Bucks this season. 

UNDER is 20-7 in the Mavs last 27 as a home dog and 9-1 in their last 10 at home when they are playing 8 or more games in a 14 day stretch. UNDER is 20-9 in Milwaukee's last 29 with a line of +3 to -3 and 18-8 in their last 26 as a road favorite of 6 or less. Give me the UNDER 224.5! 

10* NFL Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Raiders/Rams OVER 43.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 43.5 between the Raiders and Rams on Thursday Night Football. If the Raiders don't push for 30 points in this game, I would be shocked. This Las Vegas offense has quietly been playing well over the last month. In their last 4 games, they have scored on 45% of their possessions, which is the 3rd best mark in the league over that span. Carr is really playing well right now. In their 3-game win streak leading up to this game, he's thrown for 284 ypg, averaging just over 8.0 yards/attempt. 

He'll be facing a Rams defense that has given up at least 26 points in each of their last 4 games. One that is without what many consider to be the best defensive player in the league in Aaron Donald. They also don't have their second best defensive lineman in A'Shawn Robinson. I don't see how they slow down Josh Jacobs in this game. If they can't, that should only open up things more for Carr thru the air. 

It's not as promising when you look at the Rams offense, which is why I think we are getting such great value with this total. As hard as it is to believe, Baker Mayfield may actually start this game after being with the team for just a couple of days. I know Mayfield has been awful, but it's not like this is some massive drop off in talent from John Wolford or Bryce Perkins. I'll put some faith in McVay figuring out something that gives Mayfield a chance in this game. 

This is not a great Raiders defense and it's one that has struggled to take down the opposing quarterback. Las Vegas' 21 sacks is the 28th worst mark in the league. That's a big plus for Mayfield's chances. All we need here is a 27-17 type of game. Give me the OVER 43.5! 

8* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Nuggets/Mavs UNDER 225

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 225 in Tuesday's TNT matchup between the Nuggets and Mavs. This will be the 3rd meeting between these two teams in less than 3 weeks, so there's plenty of familiarity between the two. These are also two of the slowest teams in the NBA. Dallas is tied with the Mavs for dead last in the league in pace, averaging just 98.1 possessions per game. The Nuggets are 24th at just 100.4. 

The Mavs figure to especially look to slow this game down, as they will be playing on no rest after last night's 130-111 win over the Suns. We have also seen the UNDER cash in 6 of the Nuggets 8 home games this season. We should also see a strong effort defensively from both teams with this being a nationally televised game on TNT. Give me the UNDER 225! 

9* NFL Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Jags/Lions OVER 51.5

I'll take the OVER 51.5 in Sunday's matchup that has the Jaguars visiting the Lions. Detroit has been one of my favorite teams to play on when it comes to the OVER, especially when they are playing at home and aren't facing a division opponent. In this scenario, where the Lions are playing at home against a non-division opponent, the lowest combined score we have seen in a single game is 53 and the average combined score in the 5 games that meet this criteria is 68.0 ppg. 

In those 5 games the Lions are averaging 33.6 ppg and giving up 34.4 ppg. I get the Jags aren't as good an offensive team as some of their home opponents, but we saw the Lions and Commanders combined for 63 points in Detroit earlier this season. I think Trevor Lawrence keeps improving and he's quietly got a 8-2 TD-INT ratio over his last 6 games. He's also not going to have to shoulder the load, as the Lions are an awful against the run, giving up 155 ypg and 5.2 yards/carry. 

On the flip side of this, I don't think the Jags defense is going to have much luck containing this Lions offense. Detroit's averaging 6.3 yards/play at home this season and are facing a Jacksonville defense that is giving up 24.8 ppg, 392 ypg and 6.0 yards/play on the road this year. I think both teams at a minimum put up 24 points and at least one of these teams hits the 30-point mark. Give me the OVER 51.5! 

10* Thurs. Night Football TOTAL OF THE YEAR: Bills/Patriots OVER 43.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 43.5 in Thursday's AFC East showdown between the Bills and Patriots. I just feel the total here should be closer to 48. I know this is a division matchup, but I see both offenses putting up points. 

It felt like Allen figured out this New England defense last year. He had 33 points and 428 total yards in the first meeting and then came back in the next matchup and put up 47 points and 482 total yards. 

Yes, Allen has not played at the MVP level we expect from him in his last few games. I do think he's dealing with some kind of injury to that elbow. However, this offense is far from broken. Bills are averaging 29.7 ppg, 414.7 ypg and 6.2 yards/play over their last 3 games. 

I'm also not convinced this Patriots defense is as good as what people think. Prior to giving up 33 points and 358 yards to the Vikings, the Patriots previous 7 games came against the following quarterbacks. Zach Wilson (twice), Sam Ehlinger, Justin Fields, Jacoby Brissett and Jared Goff (without Amon St. Brown). Aaron Rodgers and the Packers put up 27 on them with over 400 yards of offense and Lamar Jackson guided Baltimore to 37 points. This team has simply not played great defensively against top tier quarterbacks. 

As for the Pats offense, I definitely feel like it's got better as the season has went along. Mac Jones seems a lot more comfortable than he did a few weeks ago. I also think this Bills defense is hurting and is going to really miss Von Miller. Miller was a game wrecker for this defense. He led the team with 8.5 sacks. The next best is Greg Rosseau with 5 (only two other guys have 2 or more). Bad quarterbacks can look good when there's no pressure. Give me the OVER 43.5! 

8* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR: Bulls/Suns OVER 223.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 223.5 in tonight's game between the Bulls and Suns. I think the total here should be closer to 230. In the two meetings between these two teams last year they saw combined scores of 231 and 251. Chicago comes into this game playing well offensively, averaging 115.8 ppg over their last 5 and that's with the last 3 coming on the road and one of the other games at home against the Celtics. Suns have allowed over 50% shooting from the field in each of their last 2 games. Phoenix is scoring 116.2 ppg at home on 48% shooting and should be able to take advantage of a Chicago defense that struggles to defend the 3. Give me the OVER 223.5! 

9* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Bucks/Knicks OVER 228

I'll take my chances with the OVER 228 in Wednesday's matchup between the Knicks and Bucks. The books have really had a hard time setting the totals high enough in Knicks' home games this season. The OVER is 7-2 in New York's 9 home games and it's easy to see why. The Knicks are scoring 122.7 ppg on 48% shooting and giving up 122.2 ppg on 48% shooting. I don't think Milwaukee will have any problem taking advantage of that soft Knicks defense, especially with New York playing on no rest after last night's 140-110 win at Detroit. Bucks are a good defensive team, but have been slipping on that side of late, giving up 111.2 ppg on 48% shooting in their last 5. Give me the OVER 228! 

8* NCAAB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Baylor/Marquette UNDER 155.5

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 155.5 in Tuesday's Big 12/Big East showdown between Marquette and Baylor. I just think we are seeing an inflated number here due to the fact that these two teams come in having put up big time offensive numbers early on. The Bears are scoring 91.2 ppg and the Golden Eagles are putting up 80.3 ppg. 

What people overlook with these two teams is their defense. Both of these teams rank in the Top 50 in adjusted defensive efficiency. My real concern here is with Marquette and them being able to generate enough offense to push this into the 160s. Golden Eagles are No. 17 in the country in 2P% and No. 229 in 3P%. I just don't know if they are going to be able to attack this Baylor defense inside. 

Keep in mind the one really good defense they played so far was Mississippi State and they managed just 55 points. I know some of that is the Bulldogs dreadfully slow pace, but with a total this high I just think there's too much value to pass up. Give me the UNDER 155.5! 

10* NBA Over/Under TOTAL PLAY OF THE WEEK: Suns/Kings OVER 231.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 231.5 in Monday's NBA matchup between the Suns and Kings. I don't see these two teams having much trouble eclipsing this number. The Kings are seeing an average combined score of 241.8 ppg at home this season, as they are scoring 123.9 ppg and giving up 117.9 ppg. 

Phoenix is allowing just 107.7 ppg and 45.5% shooting for the season, but they are not the same defensive team on the road as they are at home. Suns are allowing 112.3 ppg and 48% shooting on the road. 

These are two of the most efficient offensive teams in the league, as they come in tied for 3rd in offensive efficiency at 113.4. Kings should be able to control the tempo here as well, as they are playing on a full 2 days of rest, while Phoenix is playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Give me the OVER 231.5! 

9* NFL Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Raiders/Seahawks OVER 47.5

I'll take the OVER 47.5 between the Raiders and Seahawks. I really feel like this total should be in the 50s. Early on this season Seattle was making headlines for having one of the worst defenses in the league and as a result they found themselves in a lot of shootouts. There was a stretch from Week 2 to Week 5, where they gave up 27 or more points in 4 straight games. 

Then all the sudden this defense started to play better. Since giving up 39 to the Saints in Week 5, they have not allowed more than 23 in 5 straight games. Now all the sudden everyone wants to praise their defense. 

I'm just not buying it. I think the improved numbers have more to do with who they have played on the schedule than them transforming into this great defense. Two weeks ago against the Bucs in Germany, they held Tampa Bay to just 21 points, but were pretty fortunate to do so, as the Bucs piled on 419 yards. 

This is still a defense that is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 66% of their attempts. I just think Derek Carr and the Raiders passing attack are going to be able to make some plays in this game. I know Las Vegas had just 22 points in last week's win over the Broncos, but they had over 400 yards of total offense. Carr threw for 307 yards and that's against a Denver defense that is statistically one of the best in the league against the pass. They are tied with the Eagles for the best mark in the NFL, allowing just 5.8 yards/pass attempt. Seattle ranks in the bottom 10 in that department, giving up 7.4 yards/attempt. 

I think the Raiders offense doing their share is the only real concern here, because Geno Smith and the Seahawks offense should have a field day against a bad Las Vegas defense. Raiders have played one of the easiest schedules as far as playing good offensive teams. Las Vegas' opponents on average are scoring just 19.9 ppg, yet they come in allowing 24.2 ppg. 

They will be facing a Seahawks offense that is 5th in the NFL in scoring at 25.7 ppg and has averaged 29.1 ppg over their last 8 games. 

This is also a Seattle offense that is scoring 31.7 ppg in games this season when they rush for at least 100 yards. A mark you have to think they will hit in this game, as the Raiders have a very week front 7 and have allowed their opponents to rush for at least 100 yards in 7 of the 10 games they have played this season. Two of those they held under 100 yards were against the Broncos and the other was the Chargers who are 29th in the NFL in rushing at just 87.9 ypg. Give me the OVER 47.5! 

10* NCAAF Big 12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH: Iowa St/TCU UNDER 48

I really like the UNDER 48 in Saturday's Big 12 shodown that has Iowa State going on the road to face TCU. I think the only real concern here is that the Cyclones don't show up given last week's 10-14 loss to Texas Tech ended any hope they had of getting to 6 wins and a bowl game. 

It's certainly a possibility and if that's the case we are probably in trouble. However, I feel pretty good about ISU not just throwing in the towel. Not against TCU. It would be one thing if TCU was 9-2 and needing this win to get to the Big 12 title game. The Horned Frogs are undefeated and ranked No. 4 in the country. I got to think ISU will be motivated here to put that perfect season to rest and really treat this game like it's their Super Bowl given it's the last time they will be on the field together. 

That to me is the key, because if the Cyclones defense shows up, there doesn't figure to be a lot of points scored in this game because this ISU defense is elite and their offense is at the other end of the spectrum. Cyclones have scored 21 or fewer points in more games than they have eclipsed that mark. I just don't see them doing a lot against this TCU defense. 

As for the Cyclones defense, I think they are better or at least equal to the Texas defense that held this TCU team to just 17 points and 284 total yards a couple weeks back. Give me the UNDER 48! 

10* NCAAB - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Nebraska-Omaha/Iowa OVER 156.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 156.5 in Monday's non-conference matchup between Iowa and Nebraska-Omaha. I just don't think this total is near enough, as I really think we could see this Iowa team push the 100 point mark in this one. 

The Hawkeyes have been elite on the offensive end to start the year. They are 3rd in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. They also love to push the tempo, ranking 37th in adjusted tempo and 8th in average possession length. That offense is going to be up against one of the worst defenses in the country. The Mavericks rank 333rd out of 363 DI schools in adjusted defensive efficiency. We saw Kansas put up 89 on them earlier this year and as good as the Jayhawks are, they are just 24th in Adj OE and 29th in possession length. 

The other big thing difference between Iowa and Kansas is the Hawkeyes aren't nearly as good defensively. There are plenty of easy buckets to be had against this Iowa defense. I also think this is not a game where the Hawkeyes are going to be all that locked in defensively. One, it's hard to play all out on defense when you are scoring at will. Two, it's a bit of a flat spot for their defense coming off that big win over Seton Hall, it being Thanksgiving week and a big game on deck against Clemson looming Friday. Give me the OVER 156.5! 

9* NFL - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Falcons/Bears OVER 48.5

I'll take the OVER 48.5 between the Chicago Bears and Atlanta Falcons. I've been on the OVER in each of the Bears last two games. I had the OVER 45.5 in their 32-35 loss to the Dolphins in Week 9 and the OVER 48.5 in last week's 30-31 loss to the Lions. The 67 points they combined for with Miami was the highest game score of any game in Week 9 and the 61 they combined for with Detroit was topped only by the Vikings/Bills OT game that saw 63 combined points. Keep in mind they also had the highest scoring output in Week 8 when the combined for 78 with the Cowboys. 

It's really a combination of two things. One the Chicago offense has completely done a 180 from the start of the year, as they figured out how to get Justin Fields more involved in the running game. In the last 5 games, Fields has rushed for 555 yards on 62 attempts. In the Bears first 5 games he rushed for just 194 yards. Chicago is averaging 31.0 ppg in their last 4. 

I just don't see any reason to not expect more of the same, especially against a Falcons defense that comes in giving up 25.0 ppg and 6.2 yards/play. Not to mention Atlanta just gave up 232 rushing yards last week to the Panthers. 

The other big thing is that while Chicago's offense has quickly become one of the more potent attacks in the NFL, the defense has went from bad to worse, especially after trading away star lineback Roquan Smith, who despite being traded a couple weeks ago still leads this team in tackles by 13 over the next best player. 

So even though the Falcons offense hasn't looked very good in their last two games, you have to like them to put up a big number in this one. Give me the OVER 48.5! 

8* NCAAF Over/Under Total KNOCKOUT: Texas Tech/Iowa St UNDER 47.5

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 47.5 in Saturday's Big 12 matchup between Texas Tech and Iowa State. I think these two teams are going to have a hard time getting to 40 points let alone 48. 

The Cyclones are the definition of an UNDER team, as they have an elite defense paired with an offense that struggles do much of anything. ISU is giving up just 16.7 ppg and 4.7 yards/play on the defensive side of the ball, while scoring just 21.8 ppg and gaining a mere 5.1 yards/play on offense. The UNDER has cashed in 8 of their 10 games this season. 

So while Texas Tech comes in averaging 33.8 ppg and giving up 29.6 ppg, I don't think we are going to see the Red Raiders do a whole lot offensively. I also think their defense is going to have no problem shutting down this ISU offense. 

Lastly, it's not exactly going to be ideal scoring conditions in Ames for this game. Temps are expected to be in the low teens with the wind chill in the single digits. Give me the UNDER 47.5! 

9* NCAAB - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Iowa/Seton Hall OVER 150

I'll take my chances with the OVER 150 in Wednesday's Big East/Big Ten clash that has Iowa going on the road to face Seton Hall. Both of these teams have been impressive out of the gate, going 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS. Both teams have really looked good offensively. Iowa comes in with the No. 3 ranked offense in the country in adjusted efficiency. One thing Hawkeye's head coach Fran McCaffery knows how to do is get his offense to produce at a high level. Even with the loss of a star in Keegan Murray, this Iowa team is extremely deep and talented. 

As for Seton Hall, the Pirates have been really good offensively too. They put up 79 points in their opener against Monmouth and 80 at home against St Peters last time out. Iowa is definitely a team they should be able to find some easy baskets against. As for the great defensive numbers for Seton Hall, that's more of who they have played. Monmouth is currently ranked 304th in adjusted offensive efficiency and St. Peter's is 252nd. Give me the OVER 150! 

10* NFL Over/Under PLAY OF THE MONTH: Lions/Bears OVER 48.5

I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 48.5 in Sunday's NFC North showdown between the Lions and Bears. Chicago might be my favorite OVER team in the league right now. Justin Fields and the Bears offense has completely done a 180 from the start of the year. In their last 3 games Chicago is averaging 31.3 ppg and 376.3 ypg. 

This is an ideal matchup for the Bears offense, which is built around their running game, most notabely the running ability of Fields. Lions defense is not very good. Don't be fooled by them playing well last week against a bad Packers offense. Detroit is giving up 4.9 rush yards/play and 147 rushing yards/game on the season. 

While the Bears offense has turned into a bit of a juggernaut, the defense has become one of the worst. The trades of Quinn and Smith really hit hard and this defense has shown no ability to get off the field of late. Their defense is giving up 32.7 ppg, 360.3 ypg and 6.9 yards/play in their last 3 games. Not even some less than ideal conditions in Chicago are going to keep these two teams from putting up 50+ points. Give me the OVER 48.5! 

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Nuggets/Celtics OVER 230.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 230.5 in Friday's showdown between the Nuggets and Celtics. I don't see these two teams having any problem getting into the 230s. Boston has seen an average combined score of 237.2 points in their 5 home games this year. Denver has seen an average combined score of 235.6 in their 7 road games. 

These are the two most efficient offenses in the league with Boston ranking first in offensive efficiency and the Nuggets in second. Not only that, but both of these teams rank in the bottom 10 of the league in defensive efficiency. Unless we get some dreadful shooting by both teams, this should easily get past the number, as I think both of these teams will finish in the 120s. Give me the OVER 230.5! 

8* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Under 226

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 226 in Thursday's game between the Pelicans and Blazers. These have to be two tired teams going into this matchup. Both teams will be on no rest after playing last night and both teams are playing their 5th game in 7 days. Both also had to travel to Portland for this matchup, with New Orleans ending a 3-game road trip in Chicago last night and the Blazers continuing on their 6-game road trip, which doesn't end until Saturday's game in Dallas. 

Portland is also an UNDER team, as they come into this game T-26th in Pace and T-7th in defensive efficiency. UNDER has gone 5-1 in the Blazers 6 road games this season, 3-1 when playing a team with a winning record and 3-1 vs high-scoring teams like the Pelicans who are averaging 116+ points/game. Give me the UNDER 226! 

10* NCAAF AAC TOTAL OF THE MONTH: Tulsa/Memphis OVER 61.5 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 61.5 in Thursday's American Athletic matchup between Tulsa and Memphis. I don't see these two teams having any problem eclipsing this number. Both of these teams have struggled on the defensive side of the ball. Tulsa is giving up 33 ppg and 404 ypg this season and have allowed 36 ppg on the road. Memphis is giving up 31.6 ppg and 412 ypg. They have given up 40 ppg over their last 3.

The only two FBS teams Tulsa has held under 30 points, are Temple who is anemic on offense and Tulane, who plays extremely slow and probably should have had more than the 27 they scored given they had over 480 yards with 357 on the ground. Teams have been able to really do whatever they want against this defense. I don't see them slowing down this Memphis on the road. The Tigers are putting up 33.9 ppg and on average are scoring 8.2 ppg more than what their opponent has allowed. 

Memphis has allowed 30+ points in each of their last 4 games and 6 of their last 7. The only exception coming against Temple. Tulsa has scored 27 or more in 6 of their 9 games this season. 

These are also going to be two tired defenses, as both of these teams are playing this game on just 4 days of rest. Give me the OVER 61.5!