40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 9) 

I'll take my chances here with Tuesday's matchup between the Angels and Orioles reaching at least 10 runs. This is about a favorable a pitching matchup for the offense you are going to find. Baltimore will send out Alex Cobb, who has a 13.11 ERA and 2.828 WHIP in 3 starts. Cobb has allowed at least 5 runs and 10 hits in all 5 outings. The bigger concern is that he's recorded just 4 strikeouts in 11 2/3 innings, which tells me he's not right and chances are he's not going to keep struggling. Angles will counter with Nick Tropeano, who has a 4.67 ERA and 1.385 WHIP in 3 starts. That's with throwing 6 2/3 shutout innings at KC against the horrible Royals offense. In his last 2 starts he's given up 9 runs on 11 hits and 5 walks in 10 2/3 innings of work. I think both teams have a shot of eclipsing this total on their own. Give me the OVER 9! 

40* NBA '76ERS/CELTICS' TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 207.5)

The Celtics just cant catch a break in the injury department, as they will be without Jaylen Brown for Game 1 tonight against Philadelphia. That's a crushing loss for Boston on the offensive side of the ball. It's not going to kill the defense, as they can just play Smart in his spot and he's arguably a better defender, but not as skilled offensively. I look for the Celtics to really rely on their defense in this game and I think they could make it really tough on the 76ers. Miami was a great matchup for Philadelphia in the first round. I think Boston knows this team a lot better and will be able to make it a lot harder. There's also a drastic difference in playing on the road in Boston than Miami in the postseason. This is going to be the first real hostile environment for the 76ers in the postseason and I think we could see some rust here for Philadelphia having last played 6 days ago. Give me the UNDER 207.5! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UNDER 195.5) 

I'll take my chances with Game 7 between the Celtics and Bucks finishing UNDER the mark set by the books. This series has really shifted to a defensive battle. After combining for at least 206 in each of the first 4, they scored just 179 in Game 5 and 183 in Game 6. The Bucks have held the Celtics to 42% or worse from the field in each of the last 4 games and Boston held Milwaukee to a mere 87 points on 37% shooting last time these two played at the Garden. With this being a winner-take-all scenario, I think the pressure and defensive intensity from both sides will have this game finishing in the 180's. Take the UNDER 195.5! 

40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 8.5)

I'll take my chances here with the Rays and Red Sox finishing UNDER the mark set by the books. I think we have a real pitchers matchup in this one. Tampa will send out Blake Snell, who is 3-1 with a 2.54 ERA and 0.988 HWIP in 5 starts, which includes an outing agains these Red Sox where he allowed just 3 hits over 5 2/3 shutout innings. Boston will counter with Drew Pomeranz, who will be making just his second start of 2018. The first wasn't great, as he lasted just 3 2/3 innings after allowing 3 runs, but he did have 7 strikeouts and we know the talent is there from how well he pitched a year ago. I think he shines here at home against a relatively weak Tampa offense. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 8)

I'll take my chances here with the Cardinals and Mets finishing UNDER the total set here by the books. We have to solid starting pitchers taking the mound in a pitcher's park. New York will give the ball to Zack Wheeler, who allowed just 4 runs on 9 hits in 13 innings over his first 2 starts. St Louis will counter with Luke Weaver, who has pitched much better than his 4.22 ERA would suggest. Most of that damage to Weaver's ERA came in one start at Chicago, where he gave up 6 runs on 9 hits in 4 innings. Prior to that he'd allowed just 4 runs on 12 hits in 17 1/3 innings over 3 starts. Weaver was also fantastic in his lone start at home, allowing just 1 run on 3 hits with 7 K's in 6 1/3 innings against a really good Diamondbacks offense. Give me the UNDER 8! 

40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 8) 

I'll take my chances here with the Twins and Rays going UNDER the mark set by the books. These two teams combined for 15 runs on Friday, but that was with a couple of struggling starters on the mound in Lance Lynn and Chris Archer. It's a different story in this one. Minnesota will give the ball to Kyle Gibson, who has a 3.68 ERA in 3 starts and the Rays will counter with Blake Snell, who has a 2.95 ERA in 4 starts. UNDER is 4-0-1 in Gibson's last 5 starts on the road and 6-2-1 in the Twins last 9 vs a left-handed starter. UNDER is also 6-2 in the Rays last 8 vs a right handed starter. Give me the UDNER 8! 

40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 9) 

I'll gladly take my chances with Friday's game between the Brewers and Marlins going over the mark set by the books. Miami isn't a great offensive team, but they should be able to push across a few more runs than normal against the struggling Jhoulys Chacin of the Brewers. Chacin has posted a 5.60 ERA and 1.924 WHIP in 4 starts and is averaging just 4.4 innings/start. If by chance Chacin pitches well, I still think we got a great shot of going over, as I could see Milwaukee eclipsing this total on their own. The Brewers did just that last night, as they put up 12 runs on 13 hits. Hard to not see another big night at the plate given Miami is sending out Trevor Richards, who has a 4.70 ERA and 1.370 WHIP in 3 starts. He also struggles to pitch deep in games (avg. 5.1 innings), which is worth noting given the Marlins bullpen has posted a 9.20 ERA and 1.871 WHIP in 6 road games this season. Give me the OVER! 

40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 7.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Pirates and Phillies staying UNDER the mark set here by the books. I just don't see either team generating much offense in this one. Pittsburgh will send out Jameson Taillon, who has looked like a legit Cy Young Candidate in his first 3 starts, posting a 0.89 ERA and 0.689 WHIP, which includes a complete game shutout against the Reds back on 4/8. Philadelphia will send out one of their key free agent signings in Jake Arrieta, who after a shaky first start was much better the second time around, allowing just 2 earned runs in 6 2/3 innings at Tampa Bay. Adding to the value here is mother nature figures to help out both starters. Temps will be in the 40's with the wind blowing straight in from left field at close to 20 mph. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (UNDER 8)

I'll take my chances here with the Giants and Diamondbacks staying well below the mark set here by the books. I just feel there's too much value to pass up with the total sitting at 8 runs given the starting pitching matchup we have here. San Francisco will send out Johnny Cueto, who returns from an ankle injury. It's back to full strength and given it wasn't an arm related issue, I see no reason not to expect him to return to the form that saw him post a 0.69 ERA and 0.846 WHIP in his first 2 starts. On the flip side of this, I don't see the Giants scoring much either. For starters SF doesn't have a great offense and they are going up against Pat Corbin, who is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA and 0.927 WHIP in 3 starts. What really stands out is the 29 strikeouts he's recorded in 18 1/3 innings of work. Give me the UNDER 8! 

50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UNDER 7.5)

I'll gladly take my chances here with Game 1 of this NL Central rivalry going UNDER the mark set by the books. It's all about the conditions when it comes to betting the total in Chicago's home games. Today is going to favor the pitchers, as temps will be in the 30's with the wind blowing straight in from center. I also like the pitching matchup. St Louis will send out Adam Wainwright, who is coming off a great start against the Brewers and allowed just 4 runs over 19 2/3 innings in his 3 starts against the Cubs last year. Chicago countess with Tyler Chatwood, who I think is going to have a great season now that he's not pitching half his games at Coors Field. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL BLOWOUT (OVER 8)

I'll take my chances here with the Braves and Phillies combining for more than 8 runs. I know we have a couple of decent starters here in Aaron Nola and Julio Teheran, but these are also two really good offenses. The Phillies are averaging 5.6 runs/game and the Braves are at 5.9 runs/game. Runs have been plentiful in Atlanta's 6 home games, as the average combined score has by 12.5 runs. With close to a 20 mph wind blowing straight out to left field, I think we fly over the mark set by the books. Give me the OVER 8! 

40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (OVER 9)

I'll take my chances here with Friday's MLB action between the Rockies and Nationals flying OVER the total set here by the books. We have two really good offensive teams, who are capable of eclipsing this mark on their own. I expect both to contribute here, as this isn't a great pitching matchup with the Nationals sending out Tanner Roark against the Rockies Kyle Freeland. Both of these starters served up 2 homers in their last start and both figure to have a hard time keeping it in the park tonight, as the wind will be blowing straight out to center at more than 15 mph. Give me the OVER 9! 

40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (UNDER 8) 

I'll take my chances here with this game staying well below the number set by the books. The Mets will send out Jacob deGrom against a bad Miami offense. The key here being that I think the Marlins Caleb Smith can keep New York's offense in check. Smith has a 4.32 ERA and 1.801 WHIP in 2 starts, but has shown some promising signs with 12 strikeouts in 8 1/3 innings. He was also much better at home and this is a Met's lineup that struggles against lefties. Give me the UNDER 8! 

40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (UNDER 8.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances with the Cubs/Brewers going UNDER the total set by the books. Both of these NL Central teams have really struggled at the plate in the early going. Chicago is hitting a mere .223 as a team and the Brewers aren't much better with a .245 team average. I don't see either offense getting on track in this one, as we have a great pitching matchup here with the Cubs sending out Jose Quintana against the Brewers Chase Anderson. Quintana has a 0.90 ERA and 0.733 WHIP in 4 career starts against Milwaukee, while Anderson has allowed just 5 runs over 15 innings in his two home starts against the Cubs and has allowed 3 or fewer in 6 of his 7 starts against Chicago. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 8) 

I'll take my chances with Saturday's MLB total between the Mariners and Twins finishing well below the mark set by the books. The conditions here are going to heavily favor today's starters, as the temperature is expected to be below freezing for the duration of this one. That's going to make it tough for either team to push across many runs and we do have a couple of starters here coming off strong first starts. Seattle's Mike Leake allowed just 2 runs in 7 innings against the Indians, while Minnesota's Jose Berrios tossed a complete game shutout on the road against the Orioles. Give me the UNDER 8! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 223.5) 

My money is on the Bucks and Nuggets going OVER the total set here by the books. Milwaukee has seen the OVER go 10-1 in their last 11 games, as they continue to light it up on the offensive side and struggle to defend on the defensive side. The Bucks have scored 115 or more points in 9 of their last 11 games and have allowed 100+ in all 11. The Nuggets are in a similar boat, as the OVER is 4-1-1 in their last 6. During this 6-game stretch Denver is averaging 120.7 ppg and allowing 118.8 ppg for an average combined score just under 240. Give me the OVER 223.5! 

40* MLB OVER UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 7.5) 

I'll take my chances here with this game going UNDER the mark set by the books. These are two starters that I'm really high on in 2018. St Louis give the rock to Luke Weaver, who is one of the promising young starters in the game. Weaver went 7-2 in 10 starts a season ago and was sensational in spring training, posting a 0.55 ERA in 16 2/3 innings of work. The Mets counter with Steven Matz, who is primed for a big bounce back season after an injury riddled 2017 campaign. He was sharp in spring, posting a 21:9 K to BB ratio over 20 innings and had won 13 games with an ERA around 3.00 over his first two seasons in the big leagues. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 8.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Rays and Red Sox finishing UNDER the mark set by the books. Boston will send out Hector Velazquez, who was impressive in his brief stint at the big league level last year after coming over from the Mexican league. He pitched in 8 games and made 3 starts, posting a 2.92 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He'll take on a Tampa Bay offense that really hasn't done anything outside of that 6-run 9th inning in the opener. If you take away that big inning, the Rays have scored a mere 2 runs over their other 26 innings they have played. Tampa will counter with Jacob Faria, who is a promising young starter that posted a 3.42 ERA and 1.225 WHIP in 14 starts last year. Boston should be one of the better offensive teams, but have scored just 8 runs in the first 3 games of the series. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

40* NCAAB FINAL FOUR TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 155) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER in the Final 4 matchup between Villanova and Kansas. There's no denying that these are two great offensive teams. The Wildcats are averaging 86.6 ppg on the season and the Jayhawks aren't far behind at 81.4 ppg. Kansas' last game against Duke ended up with a 85-81 final, but that game went to OT after the two were tied at 72-72 at the end of regulation. I think Duke is every bit as good, if not better, offensively than Villanova and I just think  the number here is way too high given how much pressure is on both teams, how good both teams are defensively and the week each team has had to prepare for the other side. Give me the UNDER 155! 

40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 8) 

It's no secret that San Diego's Petco Park is one of the best pitching stadiums in all of baseball. It certainly held true to that form on Opening Day, as the Brewers and Padres combined for just 3 runs in 12 innings of Milwaukee's 2-1 win. It's going to be a cool night in San Diego tonight, as game-time temps are expected to be in the low 60's. I also think we have an underrated pitching matchup here. Milwaukee's Jhoulys Chacin pitched for the Padres last year and had a 1.79 ERA at Petco. San Diego will counter here with Joey Lucchesi, who most people haven't heard of. Lucchesi is getting the nod because of Lament's unexpected trip to the DL. I think there's a lot of potential with Lucchesi, who posted a 2.20 ERA in 24 appearances (23 starts) last year between single and and double a. He also had a 1.54 ERA in just under 12 innings of work in spring training. Give me the UNDER 8! 

50* NBA WESTERN CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 197)

My money is on the UNDER in this one, as we have the Jazz hosting the Grizzlies. Memphis comes in off back-to-back upset wins over the Timberwolves and Blazers and their defense played a big part in both of those wins. The Grizzlies held Minnesota to just 93 points on the road and followed that up by allowing just 103 to Portland. Those are two of the better offensive teams in the league. While the defense has been much better of late, the offense is still a mess. Memphis is averaging just 97.2 ppg over their last 5 games, a stretch in which they have also shot just 43.4% from the field. Utah is an elite defensive team, especially at home, where they are giving up just 96.9 ppg and holding teams to just 43.5% shooting. Coming off an upset loss at home to a short-handed Boston team and the Jazz far from safe in the west playoff race (currently 8th), I think we get a big effort here from the Jazz and this game stays well below the mark set by the books. Give me the UNDER 197! 

40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 8) 

I'll gladly take my chances with Thursday's Opening Day action between the Braves and Phillies staying under the mark set by the books. I think we have two very underrated starters on the mound here with Philadelphia's Aaron Nola and Atlanta's Julio Teheran. On top of that, the conditions here are going to heavily favor a low scoring game, as there's expected to be around a 15 mph wind blowing in from right center. UNDER was 15-5-1 in Teheran's last 21 starts in 2017 and a perfect 6-0 in his last 6 starts vs the NL East. UNDER is also a perfect 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams in Atlanta. Give me the UNDER 8! 

50* NBA NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 194.5) 

My money is on Wednesday's NBA action between the Celtics and Jazz going UNDER the mark set by the books. Boston has been hit hard with injuries. They are without both Kryie Irving and Marcus Smart and aren't expected to have Marcus Morris for this game against the Jazz. Morris has been one of the Celtics best scorers with Irving out, as he leads the team with 18.3 ppg in the month of March. I just have a hard time seeing Boston being to get much of anything going offensively on the road against the Jazz, who are one of the league's best defensive teams, especially at home, where they are allowing just 96.9 ppg and holding opponents to 43.5% shooting. While The Celtics offense figures to struggle, I expect them to play hard defensively, which has been a staple of this team under Stevens. I don't see either team reaching the century mark in this one. Give me the UNDER 194.5! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UNDER 221.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Knicks/Hornets going UNDER the mark set here by the books. Charlotte is averaging 109.6 ppg over their last 5, but that's a bit misleading, as they had a 140 points in 1 game against the Grizzlies. That's the only one of the five that went OVER the total. The UNDER is 4-0-1 in the Knicks last 5. With New York playing well and the Hornets fighting for their playoff lives, I look for a much lower-scoring game than what the books are expecting with this number in the 220s. Give me the UNDER 221.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 216.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER in this one. I'm expecting this game between the Blazers and Thunder to have a playoff-like atmosphere, as there's a lot at stake for both sides. Right now the Blazers own the No. 3 spot in the West, but they hold a slim 1-game edge over Oklahoma City. Keep in mind that Portland is just 3.5-games ahead of 8th place Utah. Given what is at stake, I think both sides will bring the intensity on the defensive side of the ball. Note that both teams are playing well on that side coming in, as each is giving up right around 103.5 ppg over their last 5 contests. This is also a division game and the average combined score for both teams in division games this year have been right around 207 points. I think we see a final score close to that, making this an easy play for me given the price. Give me the UNDER 216.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 212.5) 

The Hawks come in off a shocking 99-94 win at Utah as a 13.5-point dog, but that was more of the Jazz not showing up to play. What gets lost in the win is how bad the Hawks were offensively, though it shouldn't come as a surprise. It was the 8th time in their last 9 road games that they failed to score more than 100 points. It hasn't been going much better offensively for the Kings, who have scored 98 or fewer in each of their last 3 games. I know the defenses aren't great here, but I just feel this total is way too high given the lack of talent both teams have offensively. Give me the UNDER 212.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (OVER 217) 

Two of the NBA's worst will face off tonight when the Knicks host the Bulls. Both teams are in tank mode and it would do them a lot better in the long-run to lose this game rather than win. I don't think either team will have any interest in playing any defense and these aren't great defensive teams to start with. Each of Chicago's last 4 games have seen at least 218 combined points and 4 of the Knicks last 5 have seen at least 125 points. Give me the OVER 217! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 130.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances with the UNDER in this one. These are two teams that have made it this far in large part because of how good they are defensively. Loyola-Chicago ranks in the Top 50 in both 2-point and 3-point percentages allowed and combine that with a very methodical pace that just makes it hard for the other team to get in any kinda of rhythm. They allowed Miami to shoot 50% in the first round, but the Hurricanes only finished with 62 points. Tennessee on the other hand is an elite defense that isn't just a result of playing in the SEC. It's really carried them, as they are not a great shooting team. Look for both offenses to really struggle to get open looks and with a slow pace of play, this should might struggle to hit 120. Take the UNDER 130.5! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 159.5)

I'll take my chance with Friday's game between North Carolina and Lipscomb going over the mark here set by the books. I know this is a high-total and tournament games can be low-scoring, but I just feel the matchup and most importantly the pace will have this one flying past the number. The only way to slow down this potent Tar Heels offensive attack is to slow the game down and make them beat you in the half-court. That's not how the Bisons are built to play. Lipscomb wants to try and beat teams with their frantic up-tempo attack and aren't going to change their ways for this game. Keep in mind that UNC put up 90+ on 5 different occasions inside ACC play and are capable of hanging 100 on the Bisons if they get hot from the outside. Lipscomb scored 100+ in 3 games this season, including 108 in the Atlantic Sun title game over Florida Gulf Coast. Give me the OVER 159.5! 

50* WEST REGION SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 143) 

My money is on Thursday's game between San Diego State and Houston finishing under the mark set here by the books. Both of these teams are built around their defense. Only Cincinnati posted a better defensive efficiency in the AAC than the Cougars. Houston not only plays great defense, but they do an excellent job of limiting second-chance points. That's going to make it tough for San Diego State to score. The Aztecs were the best defensive team in the MWC, thanks in large part to their length. All that size is great, but if you can play good defense like Houston does, you can make it really hard on San Diego State to score, as they aren't a great 3-point shooting team. I just think this is the ideal recipe for a low-scoring grind it out type of game and we are getting a great price to back the under here. Give me the UNDER 143! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 138)

I don't like to play a ton of OVERS in the first round, but I just feel the price is more than right to gamble with the OVER in Thursday's game between Texas Tech and Stephen F. Austin. While both of these teams play good defense, they also both create a lot of turnovers and love to push the pace. The Lumberjacks know they aren't going to beat the Red Raiders in a half-court game and will do everything they can to speed up the pace. Note that Stephen F. Austin played 3 Power 5 opponents in non-conference play. Mississippi State, LSU and Missouri. All 3 of those games saw a combined 155 or more points with all 3 Power 5 schools scoring at least 80 points. My numbers have this finishing closer to 150 than 140, so there's plenty of wiggle room to work with. Give me the OVER 138!

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 205.5) 

My money is on a much lower-scoring game than the books are expecting in tonight's NBA action between the Celtics and Wizards. Boston will basically have their "B" squad out there for this one, as Irving, Smart and Brown are all out for this game and Horford could be added to the list before tip-off. Without Irving this Celtics team just doesn't have the offensive fire-power to explode offensively. What this team will do is get after it on the defensive side of the ball. Washington is coming off a up-tempo game last night against the Timberwolves, where the two teams combined for 127 points. I just don't see the pace being their for the Wizards in this one, as they not only are in the 2nd game of a back-to-back, but they are also playing their 4th game in the last 6 days. Give me the UNDER 205.5! 

40* NBA LATE NIGHT TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (Over 226)

I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER in this one. Orlando scored just 80-points in their last game, but shot a miserable 34.1% from the field. Prior to that they had scored 100+ in 12 straight games. I think they are in a prime spot to bounce back offensively against a Lakers team that has given up 100+ in 9 straight. In LA's last game they combined for 211 points with the Blazers and that was with the Lakers shooting just 39.5% from the field and Portland hitting on just 42.2% of their attempts. Prior to that LA had scored at least 111 points 8 straight games. I also think both of these teams being out of the playoff race will have both sides not 100% invested defensively in this one. Give me the OVER 226! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 139) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Washington and Oregon State going over the mark set here by the books. These two teams combined for 191 points in early February at Oregon State. While the rematch at Washington wasn't as high-scoring, they still combined to put up 156 points. Both teams shot 50% or better from the field in both games. Note the total was right around this same number in both of those games. The books simply aren't willing to budge on their numbers and I think that's a mistake given what we have seen. Give me the OVER 139! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 215)

I'll take my chances here with Tuesday's showdown between the Hornets and 76ers going UNDER the mark set by the books. Charlotte is trying to make a late season push for one of the final playoff spots in the east. They looked well on their way with 4 straight wins out of the break, but have since dropped 3 straight. All of those were on the road, including a 99-110 loss at Philadelphia last Friday. The Hornets were in a great position to win that game before collapsing in the 2nd half and should be extremely motivated here for revenge. As for the 76ers, I also think they come out extremely motivated off a loss at Milwaukee. The defensive intensity should be there for both sides and keep this well under the mark. Give me the UNDER 215! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Under 207) 

I'll take my chances here with the Jazz and Magic finishing below the mark set by the books. I think the fact that Orlando has scored and allowed 100 or more points in 9 straight games has this total higher than it should be. The Jazz are not only one of the better defensive teams in the league, but they also like to grind it out and slow down the pace. I don't see the Magic dictating the tempo here on the road. At the same time, I think Orlando's defense can hold their own in this game. Utah has been brutal offensively of late, averaging a mere 95.4 ppg over their last 5 games. Give me the UNDER 207! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (UNDER 145)

I'll gladly take my chances here with this huge C-USA showdown between Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky going under the mark set by the books. This game figures to decide the C-USA regular-season title, as just 1-game separates the two teams. The Blue Raiders won the first meeting at Western Kentucky 66-62, as the two combined for a mere 128 points with a total of 140. Given what's at stake and just how good these two teams are defensively, I think we see a very similar scoring output as the last meeting. Give me the UNDER 145! 

50* NBA NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (OVER 226.5)

My money is on the Warriors and Wizards flying over the total tonight. Washington continues to surprise people with how well they are playing without All-Star point guard John Wall. They just won on the road last night 107-104 at Milwaukee. It was the 14th straight game that the Wizards eclipsed the 100-point mark. The Warriors haven't scored fewer than 112 points in 7 straight games. A stretch where the OVER has gone 5-2. Golden State continues to play at a frantic pace and with the Wizards in the 2nd game of a back-to-back, they should dictate the tempo here and I believe that will have this one in the 230s and maybe even the 240s. Give me the OVER 226.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 218.5)

My money is on Monday's NBA total for the Raptors/Pistons game going UNDER the mark set here by the books. I think we are going to see a spirited effort from both teams on the defensive side here. Detroit just allowed 114 in a 16-point loss at Charlotte and head coach Stan Van Gundy called out his team for their lack of effort on defense. As for the Raptors, they just suffered a rare home loss (24-5 at home this season) to the Bucks in their first game out of the break and it was their defense that was to blame. Toronto put up a solid 119 points, but allowed the Bucks to score 122. Given how good the Raptors have been defensively this year (ranked 3rd in defensive efficiency), I think they make life miserable for the Pistons here and keep this well below the number. Give me the UNDER 218.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 221.5)

Since the Pelicans lost DeMarcus Cousins to a season ending injury they have really looked to push the tempo to make up for his absence. In the 11 games since Cousins went down, New Orleans leads the league in pace of play at 105.4. No surprise that the Warriors are second, but Golden State is at just 102.8. That 2.6 difference is impressive as that's the same margin of gap that separates the Warriors from the 10th fastest pace during this stretch. They come in absolutely on fire averaging 129.8 ppg during a 4-game winning streak. Milwaukee has allowed 134 and 119 in their last 2 games. The Bucks are also clicking offensively, as they are averaging over 120 in their last 2 games. I think we could see this get into the 240s. Give me the OVER 221.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Under 207.5)

I'll gladly take my chances here with Saturday's Atlantic Division showdown between the Celtics and Knicks staying under the mark set here by the books. These two teams have already played 3 times this season and all 3 have been low scoring, with each finishing with 199 or fewer points. I see now reason that trend won't continue. The Celtics weren't exactly locked in defensively going into the All-Star break, but came out and held the Pistons to just 43% shooting on the road in their first game back and now face a Knicks team that is averaging just 97.1 ppg in their last 9 games. A stretch in which they have shot 44% or worse from the field 7 times. Give me the UNDER 207.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (OVER 212)

These are two of the bottom-feeders in the east and I have a hard time seeing either of these teams being all that locked in defensively in the first game out of the break. Keep in mind these two teams aren't good defensive teams to start with. New York is giving up 109 ppg on the road and allowed 112.6 ppg over their final 5 games before the break. Orlando is giving up 110 ppg on the season. I'm also expecting a fast tempo here from both teams, which should have this one flying over the number. Give me the OVER 212! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 214.5)

I'll take my chances with this one going OVER the mark set by the books. I think Charlotte is a sneaky good offensive team and the Hornets come in averaging 107.2 ppg at home this season. They shouldn't have any problem getting that offense going against the Nets, who are allowing 109.9 ppg on the road and I wouldn't be surprised if they struggled to bring the defensive intensity out of the break. As far as the offense is concerned, Brooklyn can put up some points and with Russell now back in the starting lineup, we should see an uptick in their scoring. Charlotte not exactly a great defensive team either, as they give up 106.5 ppg at home and went into the break allowing 112.2 ppg over their final 5 contests. Give me the OVER 214.5! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 157)

I think we see this one fly past the number set here by the books. On one side you have an NC State team that is loaded with scoring options at all 5 positions. Last time out they hung 90 on the road against Wake Forest and come in averaging 87.4 ppg at home this season. BC has scored 80 or more in 4 of their last 6 games, so this is definitely a team that can get it going offensively as well, in large part because they have two of the best guards in the conference. I think they reach that mark tonight against a very poor NC State defense that is giving up 78.4 ppg in ACC play. They are also 7-2 to the OVER at home this season, while the OVER is 9-4-1 in the Eagles 13 conference games. Give me the OVER 157! 

50* NCAAB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 141) 

I'll gladly take my chances with Monday's Notre Dame/Miami matchup going UNDER the total here of 141. Both of these teams expected to be sitting better than they are at this point in the season, but each has struggled to cope with the loss of one of their best players. For Miami they lost Bruce Brown. Notre Dame not only lost an NBA talent in Bonzie Colson, but they are also without star freshman D.J. Harvey. Both teams are on the fringe of being considered for the NCAA Tournament and both desperately need this game. I think that will have the defensive intensity all the way up and with Miami's recent shooting struggles and Notre Dame's methodical pace, this game will stay well below the mark. Give me the UNDER 141! 

40* NCAAB PRIME TIME TOTAL DESTROYER (Over 156)

I'm expecting plenty of offensive fire-works to push this total well OVER the mark set here by the books. North Carolina comes in having won 4 straight and have scored 82 or more points in all 4 games during this stretch. Louisville has looked great defensively in their last 2 games, but that's come against two of the bottom feeders in the ACC in Georgia Tech and Pitt. The defense hasn't been nearly as good when they have been matchup up with one of the top teams in the ACC. The other key here is pace. Louisville averages just 15.7 seconds of possession when they have the ball, which is the least of any team in the ACC and UNC isn't far behind with the 3rd best mark at 16.4 seconds. Give me the OVER 156! 

40* NCAAB EARLY BIRD TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 145.5)

These two teams combined for just 130 points in their first meeting and I believe it has ceased some value here with the total in the rematch. Butler simply had an off-night offensively in that first meeting, scoring just 60 points on 34.9% shooting. The Bulldogs are averaging 80.3 ppg and shooting 47.7% from the field overall, with an even better 86.7 ppg and 52% from the field at home. Providence just put up 76 in their upset win over Villanova and have now allowed 70+ in 6 of their last 7 games. OVER is 9-1 in Butler's last 10 home games off 3 or more consecutive OVERS and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 home games when revenging a loss as a favorite. Give me the OVER 145.5!

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (UNDER 141) 

I think these two teams will have no problem going UNDER the total set here by the books. Washington is one of the top defensive teams in the Pac-12 (lead the conference in defensive efficiency), so don't get too concerned with the 97-points they just allowed in a loss at Oregon State. If anything that will only have them that more locked in on that side of the ball here against the Utes. While Utah isn't a great defensive team, the Huskies feature one of the least efficient offenses in the Pac-12 and the Utes are a team that likes to slow the game way down (12th in Pac-12 in pace of play). Another key here is Utah's offense relies heavily on the 3-point shot and the Huskies are the best in the conference at defending the 3-pointer. Note these two teams already played back in January and only combined for 132 points with a total of 145.5. Give me the UNDER 141! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 144) 

My money is on St. John's and DePaul playing another high-scoring game and flying over the total set here by the books. These two teams played back on Jan. 6 and combined for 165 points DePaul put up 91 points on the road in that contest. I don't think it was a fluke that they scored so much. 

No team plays at a faster pace in the Big East than the Blue Demons. While the Red Storm are ranked a mere 7th in pace in the conference, they are 2nd in average length of possession on offense, which is actually ahead of DePaul. Simply put both teams like to push the tempo. Even if they have an off-night shooting, the pace still gives us a good shot to go over this total. Give me the OVER 144! 

50* NCAAB ACC TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 162)

I got no problem backing the OVER here with Duke and Virginia Tech. These are two of the best offensive teams in the country. The Blue Devils lead the nation in offensive efficiency and the Hokies are sitting at 19th. That combined with the fact that Duke also plays at the fastest pace in the country and should dictate the tempo, should have this flying over the total set here.

The Hokies give up 78 on the road and I wouldn't be shocked if they were a bit flat on that side off that big win over in-state rival Virginia. Duke averages 92.6 ppg at home and the only ACC team to keep them under 80 at home is Virginia. The Blue Devils could score 100 here. Give me the OVER 162! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 124)

I think these two teams will have no problem staying under the mark set by the books. Rutgers features one of the worst offenses in the country, as the Scarlet Knights are averaging just 57.9 ppg and shooting a mere 36% from the field in Big Ten play. Northwestern isn't a whole lot better at a mere 63.5 ppg in conference action. The Wildcats are also not nearly as good on the road, where they are averaging 61.7 ppg on the season (average 70.4 ppg overall). The other big key here is tempo. Northwestern ranks dead last in pace of play in the Big Ten. That grind it out style with Rutgers poor excuse for an offense will make this one of the more unentertaining games of the night. Give me the UNDER 124! 

50* NCAAB BIG TEN TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 148.5)

My money is on a much higher-scoring game than what the books are projecting with this total. A big key to this is I don't think Michigan State is going to be locked in defensively here coming off that emotional win at home over Purdue. Keep in mind prior to that highly anticipated matchup with the Boilermakers they combined for 189 points at Iowa. Minnesota plays at the second fastest pace in the Big Ten and are averaging 81 ppg at home this season. The other key here is they aren't a great defensive team, ranking 12th out of the 14 teams in the conference in defensive efficiency. They have allowed 75 or more in each of their last 4 games and 10 of their last 11. The Spartans are averaging 83.1 ppg on the season and 75.1 ppg on the road. Give me the OVER 148.5! 

50* NCAAB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 134.5) 

I think we are getting a great price here on the UNDER in Monday's Big 12 game between Texas and Baylor. These two teams played back in early January and combined for just 129 points. These are two strong defensive teams and given how much this game means for both of these teams, I think we get a huge effort here from both sides. UNDER is 12-4 in the last 16 games Baylor has played with a line of +3 to -3 and 7-1 in their last 8 off a win. UNDER is also 20-9 in the Longhorns last 29 games when revenging a loss and 12-1 in their last 13 when revenging a same season loss. Give me the UNDER 134.5! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 127.5) 

I'll take a shot here on Sunday's Big Ten matchup between Michigan and Wisconsin finishing below the total set here by the books. Wisconsin is a team that's ideal for UNDER bettors with their grind it out style of play. The Badgers are one of the worst offensive teams in the country, averaging just 67.4 ppg (63.2 in Big Ten play), but only give up 66.5 ppg due to their slow pace of play. The Wolverines have a little more fire-power, but are still only putting up 68.6 ppg in Big Ten play. Like Wisconsin, they want to grind out possessions and are allowing only 63.4 ppg. Add in the early start time here in a Sunday game and I think we get a very boring and low-scoring affair. Give me the UNDER 127.5! 

50* NCAAB SEC TOTAL OF THE MONTH (UNDER 141.5) 

My money is on Saturday's big SEC showdown between Kentucky and Texas A&M finishing UNDER the total. I was on the UNDER in the Wildcats last game against Tennessee and won easily, as the two teams combined for just 120 points with a total of 143.5. I think we see a very similar defensive battle here, as Kentucky has to rely so much on their defense with how limited they are offensively. Texas A&M has been excellent defensively, holding opposing teams to just 39.4% shooting, which is the 8th best mark in the country. Kentucky isn't far behind, as they only allow teams to shoot 40.8% (31st). Both of these teams also rank outside the Top 240 in both 3-point shooting and free throw percentage. I'll take my chances with a total in the 140s given these circumstances every time. Give me the UNDER 141.5!

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 160)

I think the OVER is worth a look here in Saturday's ACC action that has in-state rivals NC State and North Carolina going to battle. These two teams played once already this season and combined for 186 points in the Wolfpack's 95-91 win at UNC. It was the 3 straight meeting in the series that saw the two teams combined for at least 163 points. NC State is averaging 87.5 ppg at home and I think they will have plenty of success here as they catch the Tar Heels off that big win over Duke Thursday. On the flip side of this, North Carolina should put up a big number here as they have scored 80 or more in 5 of their last 7 and NC State isn't a great defensive team. Give me the OVER 160! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 198)

My money is on the Bucks and Heat finishing well below the total set by the books on Friday. Milwaukee comes in having won 3 straight and are 7-1 over their last 8 games. During this stretch the Bucks are the No. 1 rated team in the league in defensive efficiency. Part of that is the tempo they are playing at, as they rank 25th in pace over this run. Miami has been playing this way all season, as the Heat are 28th in pace and 8th in defensive efficiency. I also think we get a big time defensive effort here from Miami on their home floor having lost 5 straight and allowing 100+ in each of their last 4. Give me the UNDER 198! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 139.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Thursday's AAC action between Houston and SMU finishing below the number set here by the books. SMU just recently lost leading scoring Shake Milton (18 ppg) to a hand injury. Keep in mind not that long ago they lost Jarrey Foster, who is second on the team in scoring (13.2 ppg). The Mustangs are a team that likes to grind it out and rely on their defense and come in ranked near the bottom of the country in terms of pace of play. They are going to have to slow things down even more and really lock in defensively if they want to keep it competitive against the Cougars. The big question is can they score enough against a very good Houston defense that is allowing opponents to shoot just 39.5% from the field on the season, which is the 13th best mark in the nation. Give me the UNDER 139.5! 

40* DUKE/UNC PRIME TIME MASSACRE (Over 165)

I think we are in store for a ton of offensive fireworks in tonight's anticipated showdown between Duke and North Carolina. These are two of the most explosive offenses in the country and both love to push the tempo, which I believe is going to have this game flying over the total set here by the books. Duke is averaging 89.6 ppg and UNC has scored 90+ in two of their last 3 games and are averaging 88.7 ppg at home. I just don't think either team is good enough defensively to slow down the other side and it would take a horrific shooting night by both sides for this not to go over the mark. Give me the OVER 165! 

40* NCAAB LATE NIGHT TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (Over 148)

I'll take my chances here with Wyoming and Utah State eclipsing the total set here by the books. Wyoming features an explosive offense that averages 79.1 ppg (60th) and they are an even better 82.3 ppg at home. A big reason for that is they like to push the tempo, which has also led to some shaky defense, as they are giving up 78.4 ppg. I think Utah State has more than enough fire-power offensively to hang with the Cowboys and I wouldn't be shocked if we saw both teams surpass 80 points to fly over this total. Keep in mind these two played in late January and combined for 162 points and have eclipsed the total in each of their last 4 meetings, with all 4 seeing at least 155 points. Give me the OVER 148! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 209) 

Lot of factors here working in favor of tonight's game between the Pistons and Nets going under the mark set by the books. Detroit has really come alive with the recent trade that landed them Blake Griffin. They have won 4 straight with each of the last 3 coming at home. In those 3 home wins the defense has been excellent and I expect another big effort here as I look for them to ride the momentum they got going into the break. Offensively they have been shooting great, eclipsing 50% in each of their last 2 games, but also only scored 111 points in those two games. That kind of shooting isn't sustainable and chances are we don't see a 3rd straight game over 50%. Brooklyn just played a high-scoring game last night at home against the Rockets, but had really been struggling offensively of late. I could see them coming out flat here and that could easily lead to a blowout and even greater chance this stays under the mark. Give me the UNDER 209! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 131)

I think the number here is high enough that there's a really good chance this game stays UNDER the mark. Anytime Virginia is involved in a game you have to expect a low scoring game. The average score in their games this season is just 121 points and it's even lower at 117.4 in conference play. The fact that FSU comes in averaging 91.2 ppg on their home floor is definitely playing into this number. I just don't see the Seminoles coming close to that mark against Virginia, who hasn't allowed more than 64 points in a single ACC game. What people will overlook with FSU is how good a team they are defensively. Opponents are shooting just 40.9% against them, which is the 39th best mark in the country. They should be able to hold their own against the Cavaliers offense, who like to grind each possession on the offensive side of the ball. Give me the UNDER 131! 

40* TENN/KENTUCKY PRIME-TIME MASSACRE (Under 141) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Tuesday's SEC showdown between Kentucky and Tennessee finishing below the total of 141. For starters, the UNDER is 15-5-2 in the last 22 meetings overall in the series and is 9-1-2 in the last 12 games played at Kentucky. One of the big strengths of this Volunteers team is their 3-point shooting. They average 8 made 3-pointers a game and are shooting 39.8% from long distance. That plays right into the strength of the Kentucky defense, which is 3rd in the country at defending the 3-pointer, holding teams to just 28.9% from long-distance (even better at 27.1% at home). The other big key here is the Vols are very strong defensively, holding teams to just 40.6% shooting from the field. They matchup well here with a Kentucky offense that doesn't have a lot of outside shooting. Note they only scored 65 points in the first meeting vs the Vols and shot 46% from the field. Give me the UNDER 141! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 122.5)

These two teams played UCF back on Jan. 16th and combined for a whopping 87 points in a 49-38 Cincinnati win. Not a big surprise given how good both of these teams are defensively. The Bearcats are 2nd in the country, allowing just 56.8 ppg and are holding opponents to just 36.6% shooting, which is the 2nd best mark. The Knights are 3rd in the nation, giving up just 60.6 ppg and are holding opponents to just 38.6% shooting (5th). Chances are they will score more than the 87 points they combined for in the first meeting this season, but I don't think we see a big enough spike here to where they eclipse the mark here. UNDER is a ridiculous 40-15 in Cincinnati's last 55 home games vs a team with a winning road record and 9-2 in the Knights last 11 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. UNDER is also 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in the series. Give me the UNDER 122.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 222) 

Houston is going to be without Trevor Ariza and more than likely Chris Paul. I don't think losing those two is going slow down this offense at all against Orlando. The Magic have been right there with the Cavs and Suns in terms of the worst defensive play of late and I don't see them keeping this explosive Houston offense in check, especially when you consider that Magic struggle to defense the 3-point line and no team shoots more 3's than the Rockets. These two played at the very beginning of this month and the Rockets scored 116 without James Harden (shot 44% from 3). The two teams did only combine for 114 points, but that was with Orlando shooting a mere 38.5% from the field. No Paul and Ariza takes away from the defensive mentality of Houston and I just don't see this being a game they are going to be all that motivated to lockdown the Magic. Give me the OVER 222. 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 131) 

These two teams played at Nebraska back on 1/9 and combined for 122 points with a similar total (132) to what we have here. I don't see why we shouldn't expect a similar defensive battle in the rematch. One of the reasons I think we aren't seeing a lower total is the fact that Nebraska comes in off a game against Iowa where the two teams combined for 182 points. That's more of a result of who they played than anything. Iowa is a team that opens the game way up and offers little to no resistance on defense. Prior to that contest the Cornhuskers hadn't scored more than 74 in 9 straight games. They also have had struggles offensively on the road in Big Ten play, scoring 62 or fewer in 4 of 6 road games. Wisconsin only scored 67 against Iowa and are averaging a mere 62.8 ppg in Big Ten Play. Key here is I think the Badgers play hard defensively at home and that should put us in a great spot to cash this ticket. Give me the UNDER 131!

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 202)

I think we are going to see an offensive struggle tonight in San Antonio. The Spurs have had no choice but to slow things way down and rely on their defense to win games without Leonard. San Antonio ranks 29th in pace, a mere 17th in offensive efficiency and are 2nd in defensive efficiency. They lead the league, holding opponents to just 97.4 ppg (Celtics are the only other team holding opponents to fewer than 101.5 ppg. 76ers play at a little faster tempo, but are very similar otherwise, as they are 16th in offensive efficiency and 3rd in defensive efficiency. With the game being played in San Antonio, the Spurs should be able to force Philadelphia to play at their pace and I believe that's going to make it tough for either team to put up a lot of points. Note the 76ers recently played at Boston and that came finished with a mere 169 points. Give me the UNDER 202! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 211)

With all the injuries that each of these teams are dealing with I think people just assume they don't have enough talent available to be any good offensively. Over the last 15 games these have been two of the most efficient offensive teams in the league with Memphis ranking 10th and the Clippers 5th. Defense has been optional for the Grizzlies and they come in having allowed 100+ in 3 straight games and face a Clippers offense that has scored 100+ in 18 straight. Only twice during this stretch has LA held an opponent under 100 points and in their last 3 they haven't allowed less than 113. I just think given how these two teams are playing this total is more than low enough to take a shot. Give me the OVER 211! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 214) 

These are two teams that can play at an elite level when they are locked in, but both have had their struggles with consistency and playing with that same energy against sub-par teams. I think we get a big time effort here from both sides, as their's a lot of star power and the game will be televised nationally on TNT. Washington averages 106.5 ppg on the season, but just 102.6 on the road, where they only shoot 44%. OKC only gives up 100.0 ppg at home and outside of that 148-point outburst against the Cavs, the offense hasn't been anything special. In fact, they have worse than 43% from the field in 4 of their last 6 games, including a mere 42.6% in their last game at home against the Nets. Give me the UNDER 214! 

40* NBA LATE NIGHT TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (Under 209)

It's no secret that the Celtics are one of the leagues best defensive teams. What I think a lot of people don't realize is how good the Lakers have been playing defensively here of late. In the Lakers last 8 games they rank 4th in the league in defensive efficiency (Celtics are No. 1). With this game being in front of a national audience on TNT, I think that only adds to the intensity both teams come out with on the defensive side of the ball. It's also worth noting that the Lakers don't play at near the frantic pace that we are use to without Ball in the lineup. What also gets overlooked is how much the Celtics are struggling offensively. Over their last 15 games only the Nets are worse in offensive efficiency. Give me the UNDER 209! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 214) 

The OVER is worth a look here in Tuesday's NBA action that has the Magic hosting the Kings. Orlando isn't a great defensive team and rank near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency over their last 8 games. I don't see them being all that interested in playing defense against a bad team like the Kings. This is also a flat spot for them defensively off that upset win at Boston. Magic have allowed 112.4 ppg in their last 25 off an upset win as an underdog. 

In Sacramento's last 6 games they have allowed 120 or more 3 different times and don't figure to be playing a whole lot of defense tonight in the second game of a back-to-back on the road after last night's game in Charlotte. Orlando's offense has been much better of late and they are average 107.2 over their last 5. Both teams also rank in the Top 10 in terms of pace of play in their last 8 games. I think these two fly over the mark here. Give me the OVER 214! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 217) 

Over their last 10 games, no team has a worse defensive efficiency rating the Magic and that's why I really like tonight's game against the Timberwolves to fly over this total. That horrible Orlando defense will be facing one of the most efficient offenses in the league in Minnesota, who is averaging 108.8 ppg and shooting 48% from the field on the season. T-Wovles have scored 116 or more in 4 of their last 5 with the only exception being 104-point outing against the Thunder in a blowout win. I know the defense has been better for Minnesota, but I don't think we get a big effort on that side of the ball playing on the road against a bad team, especially with how easy it figures to be for them offensively and the fact they have a much bigger game on deck against the Rockets. Orlando just put up 119 on the road against the Wizards and are averaging 112 ppg over their last 4. I think both teams hit the 110 mark, which is more than enough to eclipse this total. Give me the OVER 217! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (Over 218)

The Timberwolves were just held to 84 points in last night's game against the Celtics. Minnesota simply didn't have it and you have to credit Boston's defense, which is arguably the best in the league when they want to be. I look for the Timberwolves to return to form here at home. Minnesota is averaging 108.9 ppg at home and will be facing a Pelicans defense that is one of the worst in the league, giving up 110.9 ppg. On the flip side of this, I also look for a big offensive night from New Orleans, as they come in averaging 113.6 ppg over their last 5. I know the Timberwolves have played better defensively of late, I just don't see a big effort on that side of the ball with them playing on no rest and their 3rd game in 4 nights. Give me the OVER 218!

40* OKLAHOMA/GEORGIA ROSE BOWL NO BRAINER (Under 61)

I think it's worth a shot here to take the UNDER 61 in Monday's New Year's semifinal game between Oklahoma and Georgia. I know Oklahoma put up some ridiculous offensive numbers this year, averaging 44.9 ppg and 583 yards/game, but let's not forget about what conference they play in. There's only a few teams in the Big 12 that play any defense and even those teams aren't great.  None of which are anywhere close to what Georgia brings on that side of the ball. 

The Bulldogs had one bad showing all season, giving up 40 on the road to Auburn, but that was clearly not a focus Georgia team (came into that game with big heads after being No. 1 and starting out 9-0). They proved that was a fluke by completely shutting down Auburn in the SEC Championship Game, holding them to 7-points and just 259 total yards. Add in the extra time to prepare and I think this defense is going to make life tough on Baker Mayfield and the Sooners attack. 

Keep in mind the closest defense in terms of talent that Oklahoma faced was Ohio State and while they beat the Buckeyes, they only scored 31 points. That game is also a good sign of what the Sooners defense is capable of, as they limited the Buckeyes to just 16 points and completely shutdown Ohio State's running game, limiting them to just 104 yards on 37 attempts. I'm not saying they will completely shutdown Georgia's rushing attack, but I think they play well on that side. I also think the Bulldogs are going to look to grind out possessions and help their defense by keeping them off the field. 

History is also on our side. UNDER is 7-1 in Oklahoma last 8 vs an SEC opponent, 7-1 in their last 8 neutral site games, 5-1 in their last 6 bowl games and 7-2 in their last 9 vs a team with a winning record. UNDER is also 20-7 in Georgia's last 27 vs a team with a winning record, 7-3 in their last 10 bowl games, and 6-2 in their last 8 neutral site games. Give me the UNDER 61! 

40* TEXAS BOWL BOOKIE SLAUGHTER (Over 60.5) 

I think we are in store for a shootout tonight in the Texas Bowl between the Longhorns and Tigers. While Texas had one of the better defenses in the Big 12, they will be going up against arguably the hottest offense in the country to end the year in Missouri, who scored 45 or more points in each of their final 6 games. Keep in mind that Texas is down several key players on defense, including linebacker Malik Jefferson, defensive lineman Chris Nelson and two of their top defensive backs in DeShon Elliot and Holtin Hill. I just feel that's going to make it really hard for the Longhorns to keep this Missouri offense in check. 

On the flip side of this, Texas has a very capable offense and while they weren't as good as many expected in Tom Herman's first year, the extra practice time leading up to this game could have only helped them on that side of the ball. The bigger key here is that Missouri's defense is atrocious. The Tigers gave up 33.4 ppg and 476 ypg away from home this season and that was with playing a bunch of bad offensive teams. In their finale against Arkansas, who I don't think is as good as Texas offensively, they allowed the Razorbacks to put up 45 points and nearly 450 yards. I wouldn't be shocked if both teams scored 40+ in this game. Give me the OVER 60.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 212) 

These two teams played a little less than two weeks ago and combined for 224 points in a 115-109 Bulls win at Milwaukee. I think we see a very similar type of offensive game here. Chicago only scored 92 in their last game at Boston, but that was a brutal spot for the Bulls. Prior to that Chicago had scored 110 or more in 4 straight games and have also allowed 109 or more in 4 of their last 5. This team is really shooting the 3-ball well and like to push the pace, which is ideal for high-scoring games. Milwaukee's offense has really improved since they made that trade for Bledsoe and they come in having scored 100 or more in 15 straight games. While the offense has been rolling, the defense hasn't been great, as they have also allowed 100 or more points in 11 straight games, giving up 111 or more in 5 of their last 6. Give me the OVER 212! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 206.5)

It doesn't matter when these two teams play each other, the intensity level is going to be very high. It's only going to be that much more intense with this being a nationally televised game on Christmas Day, which is also the first time these two teams have played since they went to a Game 7 in last year's playoffs. The Celtics are only giving up 98.2 ppg and can be elite on that side when they are locked in, which I have to believe they will be today. Washington is also a better defensive team than they get credit for. Their biggest problem is not showing up to play against bad teams. They lost that Game 7 last year and are going to give it everything they have here. Give me the UNDER 206.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Under 210.5)

I'll take my chances here with these two teams going UNDER the total set by the books in Saturday's rematch. The Bucks and Hornets played last night in Milwaukee in a closely contested game, in which the Bucks went on a 9-0 run to close out the game and win 109-104. Any time you have a home-and-home like this, more times than not it trends to being a much lower scoring game in the second meeting, as the two teams are now very familiar with the sets the other team is trying to run. That's not the only factor here favoring a lower-scoring game. Charlotte lost Dwight Howard early in that contest and then in the 4th quarter, their best player, Kemba Walker, was forced out of action. Both are listed as questionable, but I would be shocked if either plays. Even if they both somehow get on the court, I still think we see these two teams go well below the mark here. Give me the UNDER 210.5! 

40* NFL SATURDAY BOOKIE SLAUGHTER (Under 41) 

First things first, conditions aren't going to be ideal for scoring in Baltimore on Saturday. While temperatures are expected to be a modest 60 or so degrees, it's going to be windy, with winds expected around 15 mph throughout. Not to mention a 50% chance of rain. That's definitely a plus, but I also think these two teams could struggle to eclipse 40 points in ideal conditions. 

Let's start with the Colts offense. I'm not quite sure how they are going to move the ball against this Ravens defense. Indy's offensive line is a mess. They lost their best lineman in center Ryan Kelly a couple weeks ago and won't have starting right tackle Denzelle Good for this one. The Ravens rank in the top 10 in sacks and in pass defense. They will force feed Frank Gore, but I don't know how much success they will have, as Baltimore is equally as good against the run. It would not surprise me the least if the Ravens pitched a shutout, though I'm sure Indy will find a way to put some points on the board, just not very many. Note they have scored 17 or fewer in 5 straight. 

I'm not just banking on the Colts not being able to score, but I'm counting on Indy's defense to play with some pride. If they don't, this will have a hard time staying under. With that said, I'll take my chances they come to play. This is a team knew their season was a lost cause with the Andrew Luck injury. This is just another chance for them to get a win and I love the fact that they are getting zero respect as a near two touchdown underdog. It's also worth noting the Colts have had a few extra days to prepare after playing on Thursday Night Football last week. Baltimore's offense has been better, but there's no need for them to run up the score if things get out of hand, as they have bigger things in mind than just this game. Give me the UNDER 41! 

50* NBA EASTERN CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 214) 

I've been on the Bulls a lot here of late (6x during their current 8-game ATS winning streak). I strongly considered taking them here as a double-digit dog, but I wouldn't be shocked if they struggled to keep this one competitive. A lot of their success of late has come against either bad teams or teams missing key players. They are also playing on no rest after playing last night and are catching the Cavs off a loss. 

With that said, I see a ton of value here in tonight's total. Cleveland is averaging 111.2 ppg and while the Bulls have been decent defensively during their run, again it's been a favorable stretch of opponents. I think we could see the Cavs put up 120+ here and that should be more than enough to push this well over the mark. Note the Bulls are giving up 110.5 ppg on the road on the season. The other key here is Chicago's offense is playing at a completely different level than they were to start the year. Dunn is a major factor and they have some legit 3-point shooting with Mirotic and Portis healthy. Bulls have averaged 111 ppg over their last 5, while shooting 48% from the field. I see a shootout in Cleveland tonight. Give me the OVER 214! 

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 48.5) 

These two teams played in Week 12 at Atlanta and combined for 54 points with Fitzpatrick under center for the Bucs. Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense did a lot of the heavy lifting in that one, scoring 34 points on over 500 yards of offense. Since that game Tampa Bay has combined for 46 with the Packers with Hundley at QB and 45 at home against the Lions with a banged up Stafford. Even with the home field edge in a prime time game, I don't think this Bucs defense is going to have an answer for this Falcons offensive attack, which is going to be ready to roll after playing two of the better defenses in the league the last two weeks in the Vikings and Saints. It's also worth noting that Winston is back in the lineup for the Bucs and has looked good outside of some turnovers and I expect him to have a big game here. I think we could see both teams eclipse 30-points in this one. Give me the OVER 48.5! 

40* LAS VEGAS BOWL TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (Over 61)

The Ducks finished the year averaging a modest 36.7 ppg, which was the 18th best mark in the country. What gets overlooked is that they played 5 games without starting quarterback Justin Herbert. In the 5 games Herbert played in to start the season before getting hurt, Oregon averaged 49.6 ppg. In the 5 games he missed, they averaged 15 ppg and that was with a 41-point outburst against Utah. Herbert returned for the final two games and they scored 48 on Arizona and 69 against Oregon State. This isn’t just a good offense with Herbert, it’s one of the best in the nation.

I also want to point out that I don’t Taggert leaving is going to hurt the production of the offense. They aren’t going to change up anything on that side of the ball. Offensive coordinator Mario Cristobal has been named the new head coach. 

Boise State’s defense finished with great numbers, ranking 23rd in total defense (336.6 ypg) and 35th in points allowed (22.5 ppg), but they played a lot of bad offensive teams in the MWC. The best offense they faced in conference play was Colorado State and while they won the game, they gave up 52 to the Rams. This team also allowed 42 to Virginia and 47 to Washington State in their two step-up games outside of conference.

Oregon’s defense is greatly improved, but they still have their problems stopping the pass. The Ducks were a mere 76th vs the pass, allowing an average of 230.3 ypg though the air. The strength of the Boise State offense is their passing attack, which averaged 254.5 ypg (44th) behind quarterback Brett Rypien, who threw for just over 2,500 yards, completed 63.5% of his attempts and posted a 14-4 TD-INT ratio. The offense could also be forced to throw even more than they would like, as star running back Alexander Mattison is questionable to play. That would be a plus, as we don’t want Boise trying to eat up the clock on the ground.

I think there’s potential here for this to get well into the 70’s and possibly even higher, which makes this an easy play given where this total has been set. Give me the OVER 61!

40* BRONCOS/COLTS TNF TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 40.5) 

I think we are simply seeing a bit of an overreaction to the low-scoring games these two teams just played in. Denver’s defense was sensational against the Jets. Not only did the shutout New York, they limited the Jets to just 100 total yards and 6 first downs. The Colts on the other hand played in a game against the Bills where the two teams combined for a mere 20-points with 6 of those coming in overtime. Though that was in blizzard-like conditions so that's nothing to read into. 

Denver’s strong showing at home against the Jets didn’t surprise me. The Broncos had basically hit rock bottom the previous week in a 9-35 los at Miami. I expected them to come out and play one of their better games and they did just that. I just don’t think we are going to get that same kind of effort here on the road against the Colts. Not only is there little to get excited about with playing Indy, but it’s extremely difficult for teams to play up to their potential defensively in these Thursday night games. They simply don’t have enough time to recover with just a 3-day break.

Keep in mind that prior to last week’s shutout against the Jets, Denver’s opponents had scored 20 or more against them in 8 straight games. Not to mention the Broncos are giving up a staggering 30.5 ppg on the road this season. So while the Colts have been struggling to score, I think we see them have a decent showing here at home.

Same thing goes for the Denver offense, who should be able to build off last week’s strong showing against a wore down and not very good Colts defense. Indy is also a team that is completely out of the playoff picture and are going to try and get a lot more young guys on the field to evaluate for next year.

Let’s also not forget that this game is being played in perfect conditions with it being in a dome. That’s another big factor here that favors a high-scoring game. I just don’t think it’s asking a lot for these two teams to eclipse this number. Give me the OVER 40.5!

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 48.5)

I think the value here is on the total and this one going under the mark of 48.5. These two teams just played two weeks ago in New England and combined for 52 points, but I think there's a big edge here for these two defenses having just played the opposing offense. Miami also is a much better defensive team at home and are catching a huge break with Gronkowski being suspended. Keep in mind it was the Patriots who did the heavy lifting in terms of the total in that game two weeks ago, as they had 35 points. The defense held Miami to just 17 points and I think we see the Dolphins struggle to eclipse that mark here. Give me the UNDER 48.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 208.5) 

I think the books have completely missed the mark here with this total. Houston is right there with the Warriors as the most explosive offensive in the NBA. All those concerns about how Chris Paul and James Harden can coexist are an afterthought, as Paul has really fit in nicely. Houston comes in having scored at least 117 points in 5 straight games and as good as Utah can be defensively, they aren't as strong on that side of the ball on the road. I think the Rockets will put up another big number here. However, the key here is the Jazz are playing a lot better on offense than expected, as they have gone to a more up-tempo attack led by rookie Donovan Mitchell, who is averaging 31 ppg on 53.3% shooting in December. While Utah only scored 94 last time out against the Hornets, they had scored 100 or more in each of their previous 6 and 9 of their last 10 overall. Give me the OVER 208.5! 

50* NCAAF SEC CONF CHAMP GAME OF THE MONTH (Under 48.5)

As dominant as Auburn was in that first meeting against Georgia, I don’t love backing teams in rematch games, especially when the first win came at home. I also feel like the Bulldogs didn’t given the Tigers their full attention, as the intensity level just wasn’t where it needed to be. I don’t see that happening this time around and could honestly see this one going either way. If I had to take a side I would lean towards Georgia getting the points, but I think the best value in this matchup is the UNDER.

For starters, I don’t see Auburn putting up 40 points on the Bulldogs in the rematch. That was one of only two games all season where Georgia allowed more than 20 points. The only other exception being the 28-points they allowed to Missouri and that was a bit of a fluke. Missouri scored their first touchdown off a turnover where they got the ball on the Georgia 5-yard line, had two 63-yard touchdown passes, scored a garbage touchdown late with the Bulldogs up 47-21. Simply put, the game against Auburn the first time around was as bad as the defense could have played and I believe a big part of that was they showed up thinking it was going to be another easy win.

You also have to factor in that Georgia’s defense will be better prepared for Auburn’s offense the second time around. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see the Bulldogs hold the Tigers under 20 points.

As for the Georgia offense, I don’t know that it’s going to be a whole lot easier the second time around against this Auburn defense. The Tigers completely shutdown the Bulldogs running game, holding Georgia to just 46 yards on 32 attempts, which comes out to 1.4 yards/carry. At the same time, even if Georgia has more success running the ball, it doesn’t mean they are going to score a ton of points. Auburn just allowed 209 rushing yards to Alabama and held the Tide to just 14 points.

I just don’t see either offense being able to get going to to the point to push this over the mark. Keep in mind that we could have a 27-21 final score and that still wouldn’t be enough. Personally I think it’s going to be more like 22-17, which gives us plenty of breathing room. Give me the UNDER 48.5.!

50* STANFORD/USC VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UNDER 58)

These two teams combined for 66 points in the first meeting, easily surpassing the total of 55. Now we are getting a full 3-points more in the rematch in what's easily the biggest game of the season for both teams. I think the defenses have a huge edge when facing a team for a second time and I look for this to turn into more of a defensive battle. 

Stanford is certainly better on defense right now than they were early on in the season when these two teams played. It's also worth noting that while Stanford did get an extra week to prepare for that game, they were coming off that long trip to Australia. I'm pretty confident they aren't going to let USC run all over them like they did in the first meeting. Keep in mind in their last game they held a potent Notre Dame rushing attack to just 154 yards on 44 attempts, which comes out to a 3.5 yards/carry. 

On the flip side of this, I also think USC's defense is going to play extremely well here. While K.J. Costello has improved the Cardinal's passing attack, it's still not very good. Stanford finished the year 97th against the pass, averaging just 183.7 ypg. Most of their offense in the first meeting came from running back Bryce Love, who had 160 yards on 17 attempts. While Love can still be electric at times, he hasn't been the same guy since hurting his ankle a few weeks back. Not to mention, the Trojans have had two weeks to put together a game plan to make sure he's accounted for at all time. 

I don't see either team getting to 30 points in this game, as I think we see a final score here around 27-23, giving us plenty of breathing room. Give me the UNDER 58! 

40* NFL MONDAY NIGHT TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 39.5)

I just don't see these two teams doing a whole lot offensively in this game. Baltimore had a stretch where they were hit hard with injuries on the defensive side of the ball, but they got a lot of those guys back and are back to being an elite defensive team, which is evident by the 2 shutouts they have had in their last 3 games. I just don't see a Tom Savage run Houston offense being able to do much of anything, as the Ravens should be able to take away the running game and force Savage to beat them with his arm, something I don't think he's capable of doing on the road. 

The other key here is that the Texans are still an above-average defensive teams and Baltimore is one of the worst offenses in the league. The Ravens rank dead last in passing offense, averaging just 165.2 ypg through the air and have rushed for less than 75 yards in 3 of their last 4. Not to mention the Texans run D has been on point of late, as they are giving up just 69.3 ypg over their last 4. That puts even more pressure on Baltimore's anemic passing attack and I just don't see them doing a lot. I think both teams could struggle to score 17 in this one. Give me the UNDER 39.5! 

40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 52)

Both Indiana and Purdue go into the final game sitting at 5-6 with the winner becoming bowl eligible and the loser likely done for the year. That basically makes this a playoff game and I think that this total is way to high. Not only does the magnitude of the game favor a lower-scoring affair, but these are two teams that aren't all that great offensively and really strong on the defensive side of the ball. 

Purdue comes in ranked 82nd in the country in total offense, averaging right around 385 yards/game and Indiana is 81st at 388 yards/game. Defensively, the Boilermakers are 34th in the country, giving up just 360 yards/game and the Hoosiers are 22nd allowing only 330 yards/game. 

UNDER is 9-2 in Purdue's last 11 games and 7-1 in their last 8 against a conference opponent. UNDER is also 8-1 in Indiana's last 9 when playing a road game after their last game was at home. Give me the UNDER 52! 

40* DOLPHINS/PANTHERS MNF TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 38.5)

I'm willing to take my chances here with the UNDER on Monday Night Football when the Dolphins visit the Panthers. Not a lot of explanation needed to why we should expect to see a low-scoring game, as we have two of the NFL's best defenses facing off against two of the worst offenses in a prime time matchup. Carolina leads the NFL in total defense, giving up just 274 ypg, while Miami is 10th, allowing just 315 ypg. The Panthers are only scoring 18.7 ppg and the Dolphins just 14.5 ppg (9 ppg on the road). UNDER is 20-8 in the Dolphins last 28 road games when they are listed as a dog of 7.5 to 14 points and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 vs the NFC. UNDER is also 31-13 in the Panthers last 44 home games with a total of 38.5 to 52 and 13-1 in their last 14 when coming off a win by 3 points or less. Take the UNDER! 

40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (UNDER 47) 

I'm willing to take my chances here that we don't see enough offense from either side to push this one over the mark of 47. As good as these two teams have been offensively at times this season, most of that success hasn't come against a top tier defense like they each will be facing on Saturday. 

Georgia is 3rd in the country giving up just 11.7 ppg and are 4th in total defense, allowing just 245.1 ypg. Auburn is right on their heels, as the Tigers are 9th, giving up only 16.9 ppg and are 14th in total defense, allowing 307.2 ypg. 

The reason I say that these two offenses won't come close to their season averages (both come in right round 40 ppg), is we have seen each of them struggle when matched up against a top tier defense. Auburn's came against Clemson, where managed just 6-points and 117 total yards. Georgia's came against Notre Dame, where they totaled just 20 points. 

The other key here is that both of these teams are built offensively around the running game and that plays right into the strength of these two defenses. The Bulldogs are giving up just 3.1 yards/carry against the run and Auburn is allowing only 3.3 yards/carry. The clock should be running constantly and I also think both teams could struggle to finish off drives with touchdowns, a perfect recipe for a low-scoring game. Give me the UNDER 47! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MOMEY TOP PLAY (Under 210.5) 

The Lakers come into this game having scored 107 or more in each of their last 4 games, but only one of those came on the road and that was against a Blazers team that was playing on no rest after a grueling overtime loss the night before against the Jazz. Speaking of Utah, that's the best defense the Lakers have faced away from home and they managed just 81 points in a game that featured just 177 combined points. 

Boston allowed 107 in their last game at Atlanta, but that was a major letdown spot with the Celtics playing on no rest and the Hawks being one of the worst teams in the league. Prior to that Boston had held 8 straight teams to 94 or fewer points and that includes the likes of the Bucks, 76ers, Spurs and Thunder. Lakers aren't a great team, but teams are gearing up to play them because of all the Lonzo Ball drama with his dad running his mouth.

I look for the Celtics to really come out looking to make a statement here against LA. At the same time, I think the Lakers will bring the defensive intensity here and they are better on that side than people think, as they have held 5 of their last 7 opponents to 102 or fewer points. Give me the UNDER 210.5! 

40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 42)

Denver’s defense has been playing at an elite level all season and if not for the poor play they have got out of the quarterback position, they would likely have one of the best records in the league. The Broncos lead the league in total defense, giving up just 261 yards/game. Carolina is the only team that’s even close to them, as the Panthers are allowing 264 ypg. The next best is the Vikings at 282.1 ypg.

I believe they are more than capable of shutting down Carson Wentz and this high-powered Eagles offense. I believe the loss of star left tackle Jason Peters is going to play a big role in this game, as it leaves Philadelphia short-handed against arguably the best pass rusher in the league in Von Miller.

At the same time, I think it’s going to be equally as hard on the Broncos offense to put points on the board. Denver has benched starting quarterback Trevor Siemian and will be replacing him with Brock Osweiler. The Broncos believe that we will see a different Osweiler than in previous seasons, but I’m not buying it, especially against the Eagles. A big reason for Siemian’s struggles is he’s had no time to throw the ball and that struggling offense line is going to have their hands full against one of the best front sevens in the league.

UNDER is an impressive 9-1 in the Broncos last 10 games against a team from the NFC and 13-4 in their last 17 after playing their previous game on the road. UNDER is also 40-18 in the Eagles last 58 games after scoring 30 or more in their previous contest. Give me the UNDER 42! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (Under 196) 

Last time out the Jazz won 112-103 at home over the Blazers, which saw them go OVER the total set of 191.5. The thing is the OVER didn't come until overtime, as the two were tied at 92-92 at the end of regulation. That's now 6 straight games where the final scored in Utah games has been 193 or less at the end of regulation. Even with that extra time, the Jazz are still only allowing 91.2 ppg at home. It's not just Utah's defense that makes them such a great team to back the UNDER with, it's the fact that they play at such a slow pace, the slowest in the league. Toronto is a pretty good defensive team in their own right, ranking in the Top 10 in defensive efficiency. The Raptors also average nearly 5 points fewer on the road than they do at home. Give me the UNDER 196! 

50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UNDER 48) 

I tend to lean towards lower-scoring games in a rivalry matchup like this and that's just the tip of the iceberg to why I like this one staying under 48 points. Western Michigan is down their starting quarterback and will be sending out a true freshmen for his first collegiate start. The Broncos were already a run first team and will be even more so here. I also think that allows the Chippewas defense to load the box early and force the freshman to beat him with his arm. On the flip side of this, Central Michigan has struggled to run the ball and don't figure to get it going here. They aren't anywhere close to as good offensively as they looked in their last game against Ball State and will struggle here just to get first downs. Give me the UNDER 48! 

40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 55.5) 

I think the value here is with the total and this one going UNDER the mark set by the books. I’ve been on the UNDER in each of the last 5 games involving the Bulldogs and it’s cashed 4 out of 5.

Last year’s meeting saw zero made field goals. Every time a team scored it was a touchdown and yet it still finished with only 63 points. I think with the way these two teams matchup this season, we see even less scoring and a few more stops in the red zone by both sides.

Mississippi State’s defense comes in ranked 8th in the country, giving up just 271 yards/game. They are giving up just 3.6 yards/rush and opposing quarterbacks have completed just 53.5% of their attempts against them. Texas A&M’s offense took a big hit in the opener when they lost starting quarterback Nick Starkel and have had to turn to true freshman Kellen Mond. While Mond is a decent threat running the ball, he’s not the best passer. He was just 8 of 24 for 180 yards last week against Florida and now faces a Bulldogs defense that is 2nd in the country, allowing just 153.6 ypg. Aggies have scored 24 or less in each of their last 3 and I think that trend continues here.

The key here is that with Texas A&M should be able to keep Mississippi State’s offense from going off. The Aggies have had two full weeks to prepare for Nick Fitzgerald and the Bulldogs offense. They are playing with confidence, should get a boost from a rowdy home crowd and matchup well. Mississippi State’s offense is built around their running game and that plays into the strength of the Aggies defense, which is 38th against the run (135.3 ypg) compared to 92nd vs the pass (245.1 ypg).

UNDER is 33-18 in the Bulldogs last 51 off a win by 17 or more and 9-1 in their last 10 after back-to-back wins by 17+ points. UNDER is also 4-0 in the Aggies last 4 vs a team with a winning record and 4-1 in their last 5 off a bye week. Give me the UNDER 55.5

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 211.5) 

*Analysis Coming* 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (UNDER 208) 

New York's offense is one of the worst in the NBA and wouldn't be shocked if the Celtics held them to 90 or less here. Boston has started out just 1-2, so there will be no overlooking the Knicks at home tonight and while the defense should have no problem keeping New York in check, the Celtics are still trying to find themselves offensively after losing Hayward. They are also still missing Marcus Morris and likely without Marcus Smart, who didn't practice yesterday. Knicks should give enough effort here against a division rival to keep Boston from scoring too much to push this over the number. Give me the UNDER 208! 

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UNDER 49.5) 

The first meeting between these two division rivals saw a combined 47 points, but that was with both teams recording defensive touchdowns. There were also a few other scores that were aided by a short field off a turnover (6 turnovers in the game). Both teams know what to expect from the opponent and I see no reason why the total here is higher than the output they had in the first meeting. You get a lot of talk about these two offenses, but both are rock-solid on the defensive side of the ball. Add in the extra incentive to play well on MNF and this should have no problem staying under 50 points. Give me the UNDEr 49.5! 

40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 54.5) 

I’ve played the UNDER each of the last 4 weeks in Mississippi State games and have won 3 of them. I again see a ton of value with this total and these two teams going under the mark.

Don’t be fooled by the 40-points that Kentucky put on the board in their last game against Missouri, as the Tigers are one of the worst defensive teams in the country. The 34-points that they allowed to Missouri was also out of character, as they hadn’t allowed more than 28 in each of their first 5 and held 4 of those to 20 or less. It was also the first time the Wildcats had scored more than 27-points in a single game this season.

Kentucky’s offense comes in ranked 107th in the country at just 349 ypg. I don’t see them having much luck here against a Bulldogs defense that has looked great outside of two games against Auburn and Georgia. Even with those poor showings, they are still 8th in the nation, giving up a mere 285 ypg.

Mississippi State’s offense has been hit or miss and their success has hindered greatly on their ability to run the ball. The Bulldogs have rushed for 280+ yards in 4 games and each of those had at least 35 points. In games where they have failed to reach 200 yards they haven’t scored more than 10. Kentucky’s defense is built to stop the run, as they come in 10th in the nation, allowing just 97.2 ypg on the ground.

UNDER is 38-19 in Mississippi State’s last 57 games with a total of 49.5 to 56 points, which includes a perfect 6-0 mark at home over the last 3 seasons when playing with a total in this range. UNDER is also 8-3 in the Wildcats last 11 road games and 9-1-1 in their last 11 after throwing for 280+ yards in their previous game. Give me the UNDER 54.5!