40* EARLY BIRD NCAAF TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 47) 

I think these two fly by this low total. Purdue is a much better offensive team than the numbers would suggest. The Boilermakers last 3 games have come against 3 teams that all rank inside the Top 30 in the country in total defense, with two of those (Wisconsin & Michigan) teams ranking in the Top 10.

The last time they faced a sub-par defense, Purdue had nearly 500 yards of total offense on the road against Missouri. Keep in mind that the offense is only going to keep getting better under head coach Jeff Brohm, who is one of the bright offensive minds in the game.

I think we see the Boilermakers score 30+ in this one without much problem. At the same time, I think coming off that huge game against Wisconsin and a much bigger game at home against Nebraska on deck, I look for the Purdue defense to be caught off guard by Rutgers here.

The Scarlet Knights just piled on 274 rushing yards against Illinois and have one of the top playmakers in the conference at wide receiver in Janarion Grant. Rutgers should have another strong game on the ground, as Purdue ranks just 84th in the country against the run (175.0 ypg).

OVER is a perfect 5-0 in the Boilermakers last 5 after they scored fewer than 20 points in their previous game and 6-1 in their last 7 off a SU loss and 7-0 in their last 7 off a cover where they lost outright as an underdog. Give me the OVER 47!

50* CHIEFS/RAIDERS AFC WEST TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Over 46) 

I wasn't surprised to see the Chiefs offense struggle last week against the Steelers. Pittsburgh's defense has had this teams number, shutting them down in the 3 meetings over the last 2 seasons. As bad as KC looked in that game, you can't forget just how good this offense was to start the season. I know they lost some wide outs, but all are guys they can replace and really weren't big factors in the offense to begin with. They still have their dynamic trio of Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt. I do expect the Raiders offense to come to life here, as this Chiefs defense is giving up 378 yards/game and 6.2 yards/play. I also think defenses are at a much bigger disadvantage on these short weeks with such little time to prepare. Give me the OVER 46! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 205.5) 

Tom Thibodeau had to be sick with how bad the Timberwolves were defensively a season ago, but they don't figure to struggle on that side of the ball this year. Minnesota went out an added Jimmy Butler, Jeff Teague and Taj Gibson to pair with youngsters Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins. All 3 of those new guys are defensive upgrades. It won't hurt that the Spurs are going to be without both Tony Parker and Kwahi Leonard. Even minus two starters, San Antonio will show up at home and this team led the league in defensive efficiency last year. Give me the UNDER 205.5! 

50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 9.5) 

Each of the first 3 games have seen 7 or fewer runs scored and last night with the wind blowing out they scored just 7 with total of 8. The wind will be blowing out again, but this time the books have set the total at 9.5 and given what we have seen, I see the public looking to take the UNDER. That has me looking the other way and calling for a high scoring game. Cubs starter Jake Arrieta hasn't pitched well against the Dodgers and LA's starter Alex Wood hasn't made a start since he took the mound on 9/26 in the regular season. I think we finally see Chicago's offense come to life and both teams put some runs on the board early an often with the wind blowing out close to 15 mph to left field. Give me the OVER 9.5! 

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 48)

I don't see a ton of offense taking place on Monday Night Football between the Colts and Titans. Tennessee will have Marcus Mariota back under center, but he's still not fully recovered from a hamstring injury that kept him out of last weeks game. I also think the Titans defense is a lot better than it's getting credit for. They really just had one bad game against the Texans that really skewed their defensive numbers. 

The Colts offense is still without Andrew Luck and until he's back under center Indianapolis will struggle to put point on the board. There's no denying that Jacoby Brissett is better than Scott Tolzien, but Brissett is still a backup at best in this league right now. He's only throwing for 182.2 ypg and has a mere 2 touchdown passes to 3 interceptions on the season. 

Another key factor here that can't get overlooked is that these are division rivals, who both desperately need to win this game in a wide open AFC South. These two teams know what the other likes to do and that usually leads to a lower-scoring game. Give me the UNDER here at 48! 

50* NON-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE MONTH (UNDER 48.5) 

BYU's offense is dreadful. They haven’t scored more than 24 points in a game and have been held to 7 or fewer three times. They are 128th out of 130 FBS teams at just 14.0 ppg.

They aren’t catching a break here against a pissed off Bulldogs defense that had been playing extremely well before a couple of poor showings against Georgia and Auburn. Not to mention the fact that Dan Mullen and his staff have had two weeks to get their guys ready for this game. Mullen’s teams rarely come out flat in this spot.

I wouldn’t be shocked if they held BYU to under 10 points. In fact, I would be more surprised if the Cougars eclipsed that mark. That means Mississippi State can score 35 (7 touchdowns) and there’s a good chance the game stays under the mark.

The key here is that BYU actually has a decent defense. Most importantly, they matchup well with the Bulldogs. Mississippi State’s offense is built around their running game. They rank 17th in rushing (252.8 ypg) compared to 110th in passing (169.2 ypg). While the Cougars are just 78th against the run, giving up 167.2 ypg, they are only giving up 3.7 yards/carry against teams that average 4.3 yards/carry. They have simply played a lot of run-first teams, which has that run defense looking worse than it is.

The fact that BYU should be able to slow down the Bulldogs ground game should eliminate the big plays and force Mississippi State to eat up some clock when they do put together a scoring drive. As long as we don’t get a bunch of non-offensive touchdowns, this one should stay well under the mark set by the books. Give me the UNDER 48.5!

50* CLEMSON/SYRACUSE ACC GAME OF THE MONTH (UNDER 57.5) 

I'm taking the Tigers and Orange to go UNDER the mark set by the books. Clemson’s defense is special and it seems like the bigger the stage the better they play. The fact that Syracuse has recently played well on the road against the likes of LSU and NC State and this is a prime time game, I expect a big effort here from the Tigers stop unit. 

Syracuse has a couple of big time weapons at receiver, but I don't see them having enough time to throw. The Orange don’t have much of a running game, at least not one Clemson will have to respect. The Tigers and that dominant defensive line will be able to pin their ears back and get after the quarterback.

The big key here is Clemson’s starting quarterback Kelly Bryant hurt his ankle and left last week’s game against Wake Forest. He’s listed as probably and expected to play, but I expect Clemson to be very cautious with letting him run the ball, which is arguably his biggest strength. Instead they will likely just lean on their two talented backs and grind out a win here.

Syracuse has also been playing better on the defensive side of the ball this season. The Orange are holding opponents to just 357.7 ypg, which ranks 46th in the country. That’s a massive improvement over last year, when they allowed 501 ypg. The biggest improvement is their run defense. In 2016 they allowed 225 ypg and 5.4 yards/carry. This year they are allowing just 131.5 ypg and 3.8 yards/carry.

The UNDER is an impressive 14-4 in Syracuse’s last 18 games and 9-1 in their last 10 at home. UNDER is also 10-1 in the Tigers last 11 games played in a Dome. Give me the UNDER 57.5

40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (OVER 47.5) 

If I had to take a side in this one, I would probably take the points with the Seahawks, but I see a lot more value here in the total. I know the majority of the recent meetings have been very low-scoring. This is a much different Rams team than the past seasons under Jeff Fisher, whose staff clearly didn’t know offense. 

Under new head coach Sean McVay the Rams are leading the NFL at 35.5 ppg and are 5th in yardage at 383.8 ypg. If they just convert 4 of those 7 field goals to TDs, they would have hung 50 on the Cowboys. That’s a better Dallas defense than it gets credit for.

Seattle’s defense gets a lot of love, but don’t think they are elite on that side of the ball. Right defensive end Cliff Avril is out of this one and right corner Jeremy Lane left the last game with a groin injury and is questionable to play. I got confidence in McVay’s ability to put together a gameplan to attack this right side of the field with success.

The biggest thing here is the play of the Rams defense is getting completely overlooked. It’s really been bad through 4 games. They rank 27th in total defense and teams are running it all over them. They are 30th against the run, allowing 151.5 ypg. The only team they have held to fewer than 27 points is the Colts when they were starting Scott Tolzien. The thing that really stands out to me is the contest against the 49ers. The let SF pile on 421 yards and 39 points. The 49ers have a whopping 27 points in their other 3 games combined and in those 3 games have averaged just 256.y ypg.

Seattle’s offense always starts out slow and this year was no different. I think they got some confidence going on that side after scoring 3 TD’s in the final 20 minutes against the Colts. A big spark for that unit was running back J.D. McKissic, who scored twice and could see more action with Chris Carson out.

I’ll take my chances the trends continue here with the Rams playing in high-scoring games, as each of their first 4 games have seen at least 47 points. Note that Seattle’s last two have seen 50+ combined points. Give me the OVER 47.5!

50* ROCKIES/DBACKS VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 8.5) 

I was on the wrong end of the total in yesterday's AL Wild Card matchup, as the two teams combined for 6 runs in the 1st inning, as both starters decided not to show up for their biggest start of the year. Erase that 1st inning and we would have had a 5-1 ball game that stayed under the mark. I'll take my chances that we get a better performance from both starters in tonight's NL Wild Card and will once again play the UNDER. On one side we have Zack Greinke, who is 13-1 with a 2.87 ERA in 18 home starts. On the other side we have Jon Gray, who posted a 2.12 ERA and 0.882 WHIP in his last 3 starts and in 2 starts at Arizona this season, he allowed just 4 runs with 20 strikeouts in 13 innings of work. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

50* TWINS/YANKEES VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 7.5) 

The sharp play here is on the UNDER here and these two teams combining for fewer than 8 runs. While the ball flies out of Yankee stadium, it's not the same in October as it is in August. Temps for this game are in the mid to low 60's. We got two good starters going here in Ervin Santana and Luis Severino. Santana went 16-8 with a 3.28 ERA in 33 starts and had a 2.71 ERA in 17 road outings. Severino went 14-6 with a 2.98 ERA in 31 starts. UNDER is 16-4 in Santana's last 20 road games when playing against a team with a winning record and 7-1 in the Yankees last 8 playoff home games. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 52)

I have been on the UNDER bandwagon each of the last two weeks with Mississippi State and cashed both times. They only reached 44 in their blowout win over LSU and the total was up close to 55. Last week we saw just 34 combined points in the loss to Georgia. I think this is another one that struggles to reach that 40-point mark, giving us a ton of value.

As I’ve stated in the past, I’m a huge fan of Mississippi State’s new defensive coordinator Todd Grantham. Just look at how different Louisville is playing on the defensive side of the ball without him in charge of the unit this year. I know the performance against Georgia wasn’t great, but I believe it was more of the Bulldogs’ players getting some big heads after that win over LSU. I didn’t see the same intensity and fight on defense against the Bulldogs. I have a hard time believing that Dan Mullen will let that kind of effort happen in back-to-back games. I look for an inspired effort here from the Mississippi State defense.

Sure Auburn put up 51 points last week against Missouri, but if you have really watched this team you know there’s major concerns with the offense. They had a whopping 117 total yards against Clemson (BC had 238 against the Tigers last week). It’s also not like Missouri has a good defense or is any good in general. They gave up 31 in a 18-pt loss to South Carolina and 35 in a 32-pt loss to Purdue. Both of which were on their home field.

One thing we can be sure about with Auburn is their defense. The Tigers were outstanding on that side of the ball last year, allowing just 17.1 ppg and 362 ypg. They returned 7 starters to that unit and through 4 games are allowing 11.2 ppg and 237 ypg. After how Mississippi State struggled against another elite defense in Georgia, hard to see them scoring a ton here.

I wouldn’t be shocked if either team got to 20 points and certainly don’t see both offenses having a big day in this one. UNDER is a rock solid 38-18 in the Bulldogs last 56 games with a total between 49.5 and 56 points. UNDER is also a perfect 6-0 in Auburn’s last 6 games following a contest in which they combined for 60 or more points. Give me the UNDER 52! 

50* TEXAS/ISU BIG 12 PLAY OF THE MONTH (OVER 63.5)

I know these two have struggled to put up points in the last two meetings, but I think we in store for a shootout tonight in Ames. Matt Campbell is in year two with ISU and has the offense ranked 42nd in the country, which is no surprise given what he was able to do at Toledo, which averaged 35 ppg and 461 ypg in his final year. He's got the passing attack working for the Cyclones, as they come in ranked 18th in the country. 

The game that really stands out to me as a sign that this one will see a lot of scoring is Iowa State's game against in-state rival Iowa. The two combined for 85 points with each scoring in the 40s. That's a very limited Iowa offense who could struggled to get first downs last week against Penn State. Texas has some playmakers on offense and are only going to keep getting better offensively under first year head coach Tom Herman. I'm willing to bet they come out sharp here off a bye. 

The key here is that I trust this Cyclones offense to do their part and push this one over the mark. Especially with this game being at home. Texas' defense is still a work in progress and we saw them give up 50 in their opener at home to Maryland. The defense was better against USC, but some of that was the Trojans not coming out sharp off a big road game against Stanford. I look for a lot of big plays and quick scores by both sides. Give me the OVER 63.5! 

50* NL CENTRAL TOTAL OF THE MONTH (UNDER 8) 

I love the pitching matchup in tonight's NL Central showdown between the Cubs and Cardinals. Chicago will send out Jake Arrieta, who has quietly been one of the better starters in the game the last couple of months. Arrienta has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 10 of his last 11 starts and comes in with a 2.85 ERA against the NL Central this season and a 2.30 ERA in his career vs St Louis. The Cardinals will send out Carlos Martinez, who has a strong 3.18 ERA and 1.104 WHIP in 14 home starts. He's faced the Cubs twice at home this season and in those starts has allowed just 3 runs on 11 hits with 17 strikeouts in 14 innings of work. Cubs still need 1 more win to lock up the division title and the Cardinals are right there for the Wild Card. Give me the UNDER 8! 

40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 42) 

Seattle’s defense has the same feel as the one that routinely finished near the top of the league in defensive metrics. In Week 1 they kept Aaron Rogers and the Packers offense off the scoreboard until the final second of the 3rd quarter. Last week they allowed a mere 3 field goals and 248 yards to the 49ers, basically winning them the game.

While the defense has been playing lights out, the offense has been hard to watch. Seattle could only muster 225 yards against Green Bay in Week 1, a number that looks a lot worse after watching Matt Ryan and the Falcons pick apart the Packer defense in Week 2. Like we see with a lot of the teams struggling offensively early on in 2017, the offensive line is the main culprit for the struggles. Seattle has put very little resources into their offensive line and lost their starting left tackle before the season ever started.

They do seem to eventually figure it out up front, but I don’t see it happening this week against a stingy Titans defense that is very strong up front. Last year Tennessee was 2nd in the NFL agains the run, allowing just 88.3 ypg. They upgraded the secondary in the offseason and should post better numbers overall.

Another thing I like here is that Seattle’s Russell Wilson and Tennessee’s Marcus Mariota are two very similar quarterbacks. Both rely a lot on their mobility to extend plays. That’s not easy to prepare for, but it should be for these two teams, given they go against their own mobile quarterback in practice. I just don’t see either team reaching 20 points, unless we have a bunch of non-offensive touchdowns. I’ll take my chances on that not being the case.

UNDER is 9-1 in the Seahawks 10 road games under Pete Carroll, where they come in having scored 17 points or less in 2 straight games. The average final score in these games was a mere 32.5 and half points, giving us a full 10-points of value here.

40* NCAAF VEGAS OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 48)

I cashed in on Missisippi St/LSU UNDER last week and love the UNDER again with Mississippi State taking on Georgia. As mentioned in last week's write-up, this is a different Mississippi State defense under Todd Grantham and a far superior defense than the Notre Dame defense that held Georgia to just 20 points. Speaking of that game against the Irish, Georgia held Notre Dame to just 266 total yards. That's impressive given that the Irish had 606 yards in their opener against Temple and just put another 611 yards on the road against an always strong Boston College defense. This has a grind it out low-scoring game where both sides struggle to get 20 points. Give me the UNDER 48! 

50* RAMS/49ERS NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 39)

I believe a big reason for this low total is a result of how the 49ers first two games have gone. San Francisco’s first two games combined only add up to 47 points, as they have scored a mere 12-points in 2 games. The thing is, they have went up against two of the best defenses in the NFL in the Seahawks and Panthers. Also two teams who are struggling offensively because of poor offensive line play. While the Rams are considered to have a good defense, I don’t think they are on the same level as the Seahawks and Panthers. They were great against the Colts, but I feel that was more a byproduct of Scott Tolzien. They weren’t nearly as good agains the Redskins. The stat that sticks out is Washington’s 229 rushing yards on 39 attempts (5.9 yards/carry). That’s good news for a 49ers offense that needs to be able to run the ball to have success. I also think they will be able to generate a few more big plays through the air in this one. As for the Rams offense, I like what I’m seeing in the first year under McVay. I really think it’s a unit that is only going to keep getting better, as they are still adjusting to a new scheme and several new pieces. Give me the OVER 39! 

40* LIONS/GIANTS MNF OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 42.5) 

Two good quarterbacks here in Stafford and Manning, but I don't see either offense doing much in this one. The concerns with the Giants offense are even worse after watching how the Broncos picked apart the Cowboys defense. Even if Beckham Jr. suits up, I still think NY has a tough time moving the ball with the problems they have on the o-line and the inability to run the ball. On the flip side of this, I love this Giants defense and with the team desperate to avoid an 0-2 start and the game at home, I think they shutdown Stafford here. Keep in mind these two teams played late last year and combined for 23 points. Give me the UNDER 42.5! 

40* PACKERS/FALCONS SNF TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 55.5)

These two teams played twice last year. Once in the regular season and again in the NFC Championship Game. Both teams they combined for 60+ points. I'll take my chances on another shootout in Atlanta, as we got two of the best offenses in the league here behind two of the best QB's in Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan. Both of these teams will be eager to get the offense going after a sub-par showing in Week 1. Green Bay's slow start was to be expected against Seattle and I wasn't surprised at all to see the Falcons struggle in Chicago, which isn't a great field for offenses like Atlanta that rely on speed. I'm also not buying the Packers defense being as good as it looked against the Seahawks, as Seattle's offensive line is a joke. As for the Falcons, Matt Glennon moved the ball on them, so there's no reason to think Rodgers won't do the same. Give me the OVER 55.5! 

40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 44)

I was on the OVER in last weeks Colts/Rams game and a lot of that had to do with Indianapolis' defense being one of the worst in the league. The key here is we are getting a low total because of the fact that Arizona lost star RB David Johnson. The thing is, Carson Palmer has the weapons to attack a banged up Colts secondary, which is missing their best corner in Vontae Davis. I could see Arizona putting up a big number here, similar to what the Rams did last week. Keep in mind LA only had 63 rushing yards in that game, so the loss of Johnson just isn't that important here. As for the Colts offense, I expect a much better showing at home and now that Jacoby Brissett is starting over the awful Scott Tolzien. I think this total should be closer to 54 not 44. Give me the OVER 44! 

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUST TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 58)

I think the total here is way too low and it's a result of Clemson just playing a game against Auburn where 20 total points were scored in the 14-6 win over Auburn. The thing is Auburn doesn't have a dual threat named Lamar Jackson, who is the most difficult player in college football. Keep in mind Clemson's defense looked great last year in a 19-13 win at Auburn and had no answer for Jackson at home just a few games later. With this game in Louisville under the lights, I think Jackson shines. He's going to have to, cause the Cardinals defense is not the same without the services of defensive coordinator Todd Grantham (now at Miss St). They let both Purdue and UNC move the ball with ease. Clemson will do the same. I think both teams get to 30 and for those wondering they combined for 78 points last year. Give me the OVER 58! 

100* SEC FOOTBALL TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 55.5)

50* AL WEST TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Mariners/Rangers UNDER 11)

The books have set the total too high for this one. The Rangers will send out Martin Perez, who has quietly been one of the hottest pitchers in the game. Perez has gone 7-0 with a 3.15 ERA in his last 7 starts. He's pitched well against the Mariners this season and would expect another strong outing here. Seattle will send out Mike Leake, who has really thrown the ball well since coming over via the Cardinals. Leake has a 2.77 ERA in his first two starts, allowing just 2 runs in each outing. He's also owned the Rangers in his career with a 2.33 ERA in 3 starts. Even if one of these guys underperforms, there's still a great chance this stays under the mark. Give me the UNDER 11! 

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 48)

I look for both offenses to struggle to get going in this one and feel there's big time value here with the UNDER. Minnesota should have one of the best defenses in the league and are more than capable of shutting down Drew Brees and the Saints offense at home in a big time game like this. Most don't see New Orleans as a great defensive team, but they made a lot of progress on that side of the ball last year and I expect them to be even better in 2017. Minnesota's offense should be improved now that Bradford has had an offseason with the team, but it's far from an elite unit. I still see the Vikings as a team that wants to win by controlling the clock with the running game and relying on their defense to make plays. Give me the UNDER 48! 

40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (Over 47.5)

I think we are going to see a lot more offense than people are expecting here. Carolina has a healthy Cam Newton who has MVP talent and a shiny new toy in RB Christian McCaffrey. I think McCaffrey makes the Panthers extremely difficult to guard with their big receivers on the outside. I respect the Panthers defense, but they still have a below-average secondary and the 49ers are expected to be much better offensively now that Kyle Shanahan is the head coach. He's going to open up things, which in turn is going to have the defense on the field more now that the offense isn't just trying to grind it down the field with the running game. I look for SF to be a good OVER play early on. Take the OVER 47.5! 

40* NFL VEGAS ERROR OF THE WEEK (Over 41.5)

I think there's some on the bandwagon that the Rams are going to be a much better offensive team this year under new head coach Sean McVay, but how much improvement is up for debate given how bad they were. They finished dead last in yards at 262.7 ypg and scoring at 14.0 ppg. I really like McVay and believe his scheme will have LA making a huge improvement into the top half of the league. He's gonna open up the offense and take advantage of the special talent that Gurley possesses. At the same time, most don't think the Colts can score with Andrew Luck not at quarterback. I think Indy will be able to move the ball just fine here, as they have some playmakers on the outside and are getting a huge break with Aaron Donald not expected to play (he's the guy that makes that defense elite). Give me the OVER 41.5! 

40* NCAAF BIG MONEY VEGAS LINE MISTAKE (Under 55.5)

*Analysis Coming* 

40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL BLOWOUT (Over 68.5)

I don't think the books are anywhere close to high enough on this total. Oregon's offense looked a lot more like they had in the Chip Kelly era in that first game under Willie Taggart and there's just a different feel to this year's team. They put 77 on Southern Utah and had 42 with time to play in the first half. Nebraska just gave up 36 points and 497 yards of offense at home to Arkansas State. They got zero chance of slowing down Oregon, who have some big revenge on their mind after blowing that game in Nebraska last year. Thing is, Cornhuskers can move the ball and will do plenty of damage here against the Ducks defense. Give me the OVER 68.5! 

50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 56.5) 

*Analysis Coming* 

50* AL CENTRAL TOTAL OF THE MONTH (OVER 9.5)

I'm expecting plenty of offensive fireworks in the series opener between the Twins and Royals on Thursday. Kansas City comes in off a 13-run outburst in yesterday's 11-run win over the Tigers, while Minnesota scored 10 runs in a win over the Rays. Royals just claimed Sam Gaviglio off waivers to make a start here. In his last two starts he allowed 12 runs on 17 hits and 5 walks. He also gave up 4 runs on 5 hits (3 HRs) in his only start against the Twins this season. Minnesota will send out Kyle Gibson, who has pitched well of late, but owns a 4.60 ERA and 1.450 WHIP in 11 road starts. In his last outing he held these same Royals to just 5 hits over 6 shutout innings. Expect KC to have a better approach having just seen him. Give me the OVER 9.5! 

50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 9.5)

I'm expecting a lot of offensive fireworks when the Tigers and Indians take the field Sunday afternoon. That's because the wind will be blowing straight out to left field at Comerica Park and this is far from an ideal pitching matchup. Cleveland's Josh Tomlin has had a miserable time against Detroit, posting a 5.12 ERA and 1.323 WHIP in 11 starts. He's also just 2-3 with a 5.02 ERA in 9 road starts. As for the Tigers, they are sending out Chad Bell to make his MLB debut against a red-hot Indians offense that comes in scoring 6.7 runs/game and is hitting .322 as a team over their last 7. Give me the OVER 9.5! 

40* NCAAF LATE NIGHT TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (Over 47)

I have a good feeling the Tigers are going to surprise some people early in 2017 with how much different they look on offense. LSU made an exceptional hire in offensive coordinator Matt Canada, who just guided Pitt to 40.9 ppg and 447 ypg last year. Keep in mind that was his first year on the job and the season before the Panthers only managed 28.2 ppg and 377 ypg. He's got a heck of a lot more talent to work with at LSU, including a sensational junior RB in Derrius Guice. I think BYU is going to be a bit shell-shocked here with LSU's offense. At the same time, I also think the Cougars put some points on the board. LSU lost a ton on the defensive side of the ball. They have to replace their top 5 tacklers and their best returning defensive player (Arden Key) is doubtful with a shoulder injury. Give me the OVER 47! 

50* POWER 5 NON CONF TOTAL OF THE YEAR (OVER 67.5)

For whatever reason the entire country is sleeping on Louisville and returning Heisman winner Lamar Jackson this season. I know the Cardinals struggled down the stretch, but I believe it was more of the team not being as focused after losing out on their playoff hopes than opposing defenses figuring them out. Petrino has won everywhere he's went and Jackson is only going to be better this year. I love the hire by Purdue with Jeff Brohm, which should pay off on the offensive side of the ball. However, the defense will remain a work in progress. Keep in mind were talking about a Boilermakers defense that allowed 40+ points in 6 games, that includes 50 to Maryland, 44 to Minnesota, 45 to Northwestern and 49 to Iowa. Louisville is on a whole different planet in terms of offensive explosiveness than those teams. I think they score at least 40 and potentially a lot more here, while Purdue adds more than enough to push us over the mark. Give me the OVER 67.5! 

40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 56)

50* CFB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOTAL OF THE WEEK (Over 56.5)

I think the books have completely missed the mark here with this total. These two teams played last year and combined for 67 points in a 53-14 win by UCF. I think we see a similar scoring output here, giving us all kinds of breathing room. Scott Frost brought Oregon's uptempo attack with him to Orlando and if you recall the Ducks loved to poor it on teams. FIU should be improved under head coach Butch Davis, but will struggle to slow down UCF's offense which has 9 starters back and should get even better play out of sophomore QB McKenzie Milton, who flashed as a true freshman. FIU only averaged 24 ppg last year, but should see a huge uptick in their production under new OC Rich Skrosky. Give me the OVER 56.5! 

50* AMERICAN LEAGUE TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 8.5)

These two teams continue their series in Tampa Bay, as they had to move it from Houston due to all the flooding. While the two combined for 14 runs yesterday, that was a result of a horrible outing by Houston starter Michael Fiers, who gave up 8 runs in 4 innings. Texas ended up with 12 runs. I don't see them getting anywhere close to that tonight against Astros ace Dallas Keuchel, who is 11-2 with a 2.58 ERA and 1.071 WHIP in 17 starts. That includes a 5-1 record and 1.51 ERA in 8 home starts. I also don't see Houston doing a lot at the plate here against Rangers starter Andrew Cashner, who has a strong 3.86 ERA in his last 3 starts and a 3.44 ERA in 21 starts overall on the season. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

50* NATIONAL LEAGUE TOTAL OF THE MONTH (OVER 9.5)

These two teams should have no problem combining for at least 10 runs with the starting pitching matchup. Cubs send out John Lackey, who has a 5.25 ERA and 1.371 WHIP in 13 road starts and is in similar form with a 5.51 ERA in his last 3 starts. Phillies counter with Nick Pivetta, who has a 6.54 ERA and 1.526 WHIP in 19 starts. Cubs had a rough two games at the plate, but exploded for 17 runs on Saturday. Phillies have been hot of late, scoring 7 or more in 4 of their last 6. Give me the OVER 9.5! 

50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 8.5) 

UNDER is worth a look here in Monday's clash between the Giants and Brewers. San Francisco will send out Chris Stratton, who was sensational in his last start at Washington, allowing just 5 hits with 10 strikeouts in 6 2/3 shutout innings. Milwaukee will send out Zach Davies, who is 7-0 with a 2.52 ERA and 1.135 WHIP in 12 road starts this season. This will be the first career start against the opposing team for both starters, giving them an even bigger edge in this one. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

50* MLB INTERLEAGUE TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 10)

I look for an offense explosion in Monday's series opener between the Red Sox and Cardinals that has this one easily eclipsing the total of 10 runs. St Louis will send out Mike Leake, who has completely fallen off from his great start. After posting a 1.35 ERA in April and 3.09 ERA in May, Leake had a 4.30 ERA in June and 4.76 in July. It's not been any better in August, where he has a 5.73 ERA in two starts. As for Red Sox starter Rick Porcello, it's been a disappointing season from start to finish for last year's Cy Young winner, as he's 6-14 with a 4.63 ERA in 24 starts. He's also got a 5.24 ERA in 13 home starts and 5.40 ERA in his last 3 starts. Both of these offenses are potent and the wind will be blowing straight out to left. Give me the OVER 10! 

50* AL WEST TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 9)

I think the books have made a major mistake with the total they have set for this one. I don't see this game getting near double-digits with the starting pitching matchup we have going. Angels are sending out Parker Bridwell, who owns a 2.79 ERA and 0.983 WHIP in his last 3 starts and has a sensational 1.80 ERA in 4 road starts. Mariners counter with Ariel Miranda, who has a strong 3.34 ERA and 0.963 WHIP over 11 home starts this season. Not to mention he's 4-0 with a 2.61 ERA in 4 career starts against the Angels. Take the UNDER!

40* AL EAST TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 9.5)

I'm expecting a playoff type atmosphere in New York when the Red Sox and Yankees continue their historic rivalry. Boston currently leads NY by 4.5-games in the AL East standings, so this is a massive series for the Yankees. This starting pitching matchup might not look like one that's going to lead to a low scoring game, but Red Sox starter Eduardo Rodriguez has seen the UNDER go 13-2 when his team is listed as a dog and a perfect 11-0 when his team is coming off 3 straight wins.  UNDER is also 12-4 in Yankees 16 games against a winning team in the 2nd half of this season. Give me the UNDER 9.5!

50* MLB INTERLEAGUE TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 8.5)

I don't see either offense doing much in this one. Milwaukee will give the rock to Zach Davies, who is a perfect 6-0 with a 2.80 ERA in 11 road starts this season. He's also throwing the best he has all year, posting a 1.25 ERA and 1.015 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Rays will give the ball to Alex Cobb. He's off a bad start, but that was on the road against the Astros. Nothing to get concerned about given how loaded that Houston lineup is. Prior to that he had allowed just 5 runs in his previous 4 starts and it was his first loss since the first week of July. I'll take my chances he bounces back here, as he owns a 2.58 ERA and 0.941 WHIP in 9 home starts. Give me the UNDER 8.5!

40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 8.5)

I look for both offenses to struggle to score in this one. This is no where close to the conditions you would expect for early August in KC, as temps are considerably cooler than normal. That makes this pitchers park that much harder to score. Seattle sends out one of the hottest starters in the game in James Paxton, who has a 0.45 ERA in his last 3 starts and has not allowed more than 2 earned run in 6 straight starts. Royals will send out Jason Hammel, who has also turned it on of late, posting a 3.32 ERA and very strong 0.947 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Give me the UNDER 8.5!

50* NATIONAL LEAGUE TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 8)

I easily cashed in on the UNDER in Friday's series opener between the Cardinals and Diamondbacks. I don't see either offense bouncing back with a good showing on Saturday, as we have another oustanding pitching matchup going. St Louis will send out Mike Leake, who after a rough stretch bounced back in a big way in his last outing, cooling off a Rockies offense that was on fire, limiting them to a mere 4 hits (no walks) over 7 shutout innings. Clearly he figured something out and I'll take my chances he carries it over to this outing, which is also at home. On the flip side, Arizona sends out ace Zach Greinke, who is 12-4 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.021 WHIP in 20 starts this season and owns a 2.25 ERA in his last 3 outings. Give me the UNDER 8!

50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 8)

This game has a pitchers duel written all over it. Seattle will send out veteran ace Felix Hernandez, who has regained his dominant form and owns a 1.00 ERA over his last 3 starts. Last time out, he allowed just 1 run on 3 hits in 7 innings against the Yankees. Boston's offense is struggling, so he should be able to keep them in check. Red Sox counter with Drew Pomeranz, who has a 2.89 ERA in his last 3 starts and 1.00 ERA in 3 career outings against the Mariners. GIve me the UNDER 8!

40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 10.5)

You almost never see a total with the Royals in double-digits, regardless of how bad the starters are. The fact that tonight's total is 10.5 should tell you something. It all comes down the heat index expected to be at 103 when this game starts. The ball flys in these condidtions and pitchers fatigue quickly. We had almost identical conditions yesterday in KC as they combined for 20 runs with the Tigers and that was with arguably both teams starting their best starters in Fulmer and Duffy. Tonight it's James Shields and Ian Kennedy. Easy to see Shields getting exposed and while Kennedy has been solid of late, he is 0-4 with a 4.40 ERA in 8 home start. Give me the OVER 10.5!

40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 8)

Offense figures to be extremely hard to come by in this one. If you haven't had a chance to watch Tampa Bay rookie Jacob Faria, you are missing out. He's now 4-0 with a 2.00 ERA in 7 starts since being called up on 6/7. He's pitched at least 6 innigns in every outing and allowed 1 run or less in 5 of the 7, giving up 2 and 3 in the other two outings. Oakland has the red-hot Sonny Gray on the mound, who has been lights out of late. Gray has a 1.35 ERA over his last 3 starts, a stretch in which he's allowed a mere 7 hits and 4 walks over 20 innings of work. Give me the UNDER 8!

50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UNDER 9)

These two teams combined for 8 runs and finished UNDER the total of 9.5 in yesterday's series opener. I expect an even lower scoring contest in Game 2. Texas will send out Cole Hamels, who really pitched well going into the break, allowing just 2 runs on 5 hits over his final two starts, which spanned an impressive 14 1/3 innings. KC will send out their ace in Danny Duffy, who had some tough luck going into the break, but all of that came on the road. Duffy owns a 2.75 ERA in 5 home starts all of which have finished UNDER the total. Give me the UNDER 9!

40* MLB BLOCKBUSTER TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (Under 8)

I’m not seeing a lot of offense being generated by either team in tonight’s game between the Indians and A’s. Cleveland sends out Carlos Carrasco, who has earned his paycheck with a 7-1 record and 2.38 ERA in 9 road starts this season. He will go up against Oakland ace Sonny Gray, who was dealing before the break with a 1.71 ERA and 0.619 WHIP in his final 3 starts. Offenses tend to be a bit sluggish out of the break and UNDER is 11-1 in Carrasco’s last 12 road starts when Indians are a favorite of -100 to -150. Give me the UNDER 8!

50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UNDER 9.5)

 I was on the UNDER in yesterday's game and suffered a bad break and ended up pushing on the total of 9. The game was 2-1 going into the bottom of the 8th before the Yankees scored 4 to take a 6-1 lead. Still in good shape, the Yankees allowed the Blue Jays to score 2 runs in the top of the 9th. I like the value again here with the total and the UNDER in Tuesday's afternoon slate that has two more quality starters in great form going. Toronto sends out J.A. Happ who has a 2.75 ERA in his last 3 starts and New York counters with C.C. Sabathia, who has a 0.49 ERA and .764 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Give me the UNDER 9.5!

50* AL EAST TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 9)

The books have set the mark too high here for Monday's series opener between the Yankees and Blue Jays. Toronto is sending out their most consistent starter in Marcus Stroman, who is coming off a great start against the Orioles, allowing just 5 hits over 7 2/3 shutout innings. Stroman owns a 2.91 ERA in 10 career starts against the Yankees and a 2.73 ERA in 10 starts in night games. Yankees will send out their ace Masahiro Tanaka, who has pitched very well in his last two starts, giving up just 2 runs on 9 hits with 14 strikeouts in 14 innings of work. I like his chances of keeping it going against a Toronto team in which he owns a 2.65 ERA in 11 starts against. Give me the UNDER 9!

50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 7.5)

I don't see much offense taking place in this one. Two of the best starters in the game will sqaure off on Sunday Night Baseball, as the Cardinals Carlos Martinez takes on the Nationals Max Scherzer. Martinez has a 2.88 ERA on the season with a sensational 1.85 ERA in 8 home starts. Scherzer has a 2.06 ERA on the season, a 1.62 ERA in 9 road starts and 0.82 ERA in his last 3 starts. Give me the UNDER 7.5!

40* MLB TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 9.5)

UNDER here is worth a look, especially given it's almost 10 runs. The Marlins will send out one of the more underrated starters right now in Jose Urena. He's 6-2 with a 3.60 ERA in 10 starts, but owns a 3.00 ERA at home and is only getting better with a 1.50 ERA and 0.944 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Mets counter with Seth Lugo, who while he has struggled of late, owns a respectable 3.72 ERA and this Miami offense isn't one to put up a big number. THe Marlins are only scoring 4.4 runs/game at home. UNDER is also a perfect 9-0 in the Marlins last 9 home games when revenging a loss of 6 runs or more. Give me the UNDER 9.5!

50* NL OVER/UNDER TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 9.5)

I expect runs to come early and often here when the Diamondbacks host the Cardinals. St. Louis will give the ball to Adam Wainright, who has an atrocious 9.48 ERA and 1.914 WHIP in 7 road starts. In his last 2 road starts, he's allowed 9 earned runs in each. I just don't see him keeping this Arizona offense in check. The Dbacks are averaging 6.3 runs/game at home and have scored 12 runs on 20 hits over their last 2 games. St Louis is also on fire at the plate, as they have scored at least 5 runs (21 total) in each of their last 3 games. The ball flies out of Chase Field and these two should easily reach double-digits. Give me the OVER 9.5! 

50* AL OVER/UNDER TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 8.5)

Books have set the bar way too high on the total for Monday's clash between the Red Sox and Twins. Boston will send out Chris Sale, who has a 2.85 ERA and 0.904 WHIP in 15 starts, as well as a 2.45 ERA and 0.838 WHIP in 7 home starts. Minnesota will give the rock to Jose Berrios, who has been equally as effective as Sale, but just isn't the known commodity. Berrios is 7-1 with a 2.67 ERA and 0.907 WHIP in 8 starts. He's got a 2.84 ERA in 4 road outings and 2.53 ERA in his last 3. On top of the strong pitching matchup, both offenses are struggling right now. Red Sox are hitting just .252 over their last 7 games and Minnesota is even in their last 7 at .239. Give me the UNDER 8.5!

50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 9)

I think we are getting a ton of value here on the UNDER at 9. The numbers don't look great on paper for today's starters, but both are trending in the right direction. Toronto's Francisco Liriano wasn't great in his last start, but it was on the road against a good Texas lineup. Liriano had been throwing it well prior to that in his 3 starts since returning from the DL. I like his chances of rebounding here against an average Royals lineup. On the flip side, KC sends out the surging Jason Hammel, who after a rough start has found his form. Hammel has a 1.74 ERA and 0.968 WHIP in his last 3 starts. I like his chances of keeping it rolling. Give me the UNDER 9! 

40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 9)

New York might eclipse this total on their own. The Yankees put up 8 runs in yesterday's contest and will be facing Angels starter Jesse Chavez, who owns a 6.27 ERA in 7 road starts. Keep in mind that New York on the season is averaging 6.5 runs/game at home. While the Yankees have a top notch starter going in Luis Severino, he allowed 4 runs in his last start and figures to give up at least 2 here, which should be more than enough to push us past the total. Give me the OVER 9!

40* MLB OVER/UNDER NO BRAINER (Under 9.5)

I don't think either of these teams are going to be doing much offensively in this one. Minnesota sends out Ervin Santana, who is 8-4 with a 2.56 ERA and 0.947 WHIP in 14 starts. Santana is comign off a rough outing, where he allowed 5 runs on 9 hits in 5 innings to the Mariners. It was the 4th time that Santana has allowed 5 or more runs. In each of the previous 3 times, he came back in his next start and didn't allow a run, twice throwing a complete game shutout. White Sox are sending out Derek Holland, who has really pitched well outside of a couple outings. In his last 10 starts, he's given up 3 or fewer runs 8 times. He's catching the Twins at the right time, as Minnesota has totaled just 8 runs in their last 4 games combined. Give me the UNDER 9.5!

50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 8.5)

I don't expect a lot of offense in the series finale this afternoon between the Royals and Angels. Kansas City will be sending out Jason Vargas, who has a 2.10 ERA in 13 starts with a 2.45 ERA in 6 road starts and 1.29 ERA in his last 3 outings. Los Angeles will send out J.C. Ramirez, who pitched well in his last outing and has given up 2 or less earned runs in 4 of his last 6 start. He's also facing a Royals offense that has gone cold the last two games, including a mere 2 hits in getting shutout yesterday. Give me the UNDER 8.5!

50* MLB NL EAST TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 9)

This is simply too big of a number to pass up on the total and it staying under the mark given the matchup. These two combined for just 5 runs in the Marlins 5-0 win last night and the Braves managed just 4 hits. Keep in mind that just recently Atlanta went on a stretch where they scored 9 runs in 5 games, scoring exactly 1 run in 3 straight. When they struggle it can be ugly offensively. Jeff Locke of the Marlins is more than capable of keeping them in check. Atlanta will send out the vastly underrated Jaime Garcia, who has pitched much better than his 2-5 record would lead on. Garcia has a 3.16 ERA in 12 starts overall, 2.48 ERA in 4 starts at home and 2.08 ERA in his last 3 outings. Give me the UNDER 9!

40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 9)

I look for a lot of runs to be scored in tonight's matchup between the Cardinals and Orioles. St Louis is sending out Carlos Martinez, who just hasn't been able to make it click on the road. Martinez is 1-4 with a 5.10 ERA and 1.400 WHIP in 5 road starts. Baltimore should be able to put up a decent number here. St Louis also figures to score early and often. The Cardinals are red-hot right now with a .283 team average over their last 7 games. They will be facing the struggling Kevin Gausman, who has a 6.49 ERA in 14 starts and 7.63 ERA over his last 3 outings. Give me the OVER 9!

50* AMERICAN LEAGUE TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 8.5)

I'll gladly take the UNDER at 8.5 in tonight's showdown between the Blue Jays and Mariners. This has the making of a great pitching matchup with Marcus Stroman of the Blue Jays against Ariel Miranda of the Mariners. Stroman is 4-0 with a 3.34 ERA in 5 road starts and Miranda is 3-1 with a 2.02 ERA in 5 home starts. Both of these pitched well against the opponent in an earlier series between these two teams in May. Stroman allowed just 2 runs in 6 innings, while Miranda gave up 1 run in 5 innings. Give me the UNDER 8.5!

50* NBA FINALS VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 227)

I would lean Warriors here, but I feel the real value is with the total. Cleveland is saying they aren't going to slow things down and will continue to play fast. I'm not buying it. The Cavs know they can't contain this Warriors offense if they let them get out in transition. They don't have to play at a snails pace, but they have to play slower. The pace of these first two games has been ridiculous. On top of that, we are going to get the very best the Cavs have to offer defensively at home in what I think most agree is a game they have to win if they want any shot at making this a series. At the same time, I don't see the Warriors letting off the defensive intensity after blowing a 3-1 lead last year. Give me the UNDER 227! 

40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 7.5)

The wind will be blowing straight in from left field at close to 15 mph and that's a good sign that the offenses are going to struggle in this one. I also think we have a great pitching matchup here with Miami's Jeff Locke facing off against the Cubs Jake Arrieta. Locke was senational in his first start of 2017, allowing just 1 run on 3 hits with 7 strikeouts in 5 2/3 innings against the Diamondbacks. Arrieta on the other hand is starting to show signs of returning to that Cy Young form, as he has a 2.50 ERA in his last 3 starts. Give me the UNDER 7.5!

50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 8.5)

I just feel the books have completely missed the mark here with this total and there's just too much value on the under. The value is coming from the fact that Giants starter Jeff Samardzija is 1-7 with a 4.62 ERA in 11 starts. However, Samardzija has pitched much better than those numbers would suggest and comes in with a 2.84 ERA in his last 3 starts. Milwaukee counters with Junior Guerra, who I also feel is underrated. This guy went 9-3 with a 2.81 ERA in 20 starts last year and has a 1.84 ERA in 3 starts this season (didn't make a start from 4/4 to 5/25 because of injury). It's also no secret the Giants offense is far from potent and the Brewers haven't exactly been crushing the ball of late, scoring just 3.9 runs/game and hitting .213 as a team over their last 7 games. Give me the UNDER 8.5!

40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 8.5)

Without Trout in the lineup, it's going to be hard for the Angels to do a lot offensively and that's certainly been the case of late, as they have scored 3 or fewer in 4 of hteir last 5. So while Twins starter Kyle Gibson has some pretty poor numbers, this is an offense he can keep in check. As for Minnesota's offense, I don't see them doing much here either, as LA sends out J.C. Ramirez, who has a 2.67 ERA in 4 home starts and 1.74 ERA in his last 3 outings overall. Give me the UNDER 8.5!

40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 7.5)

Two starters here that are throwing the ball extremely well and I believe it's going to be tough for either offense to get anything going in this one. Milwaukee will send out Junior Guerra, who was sharp in his first start back from the DL, allowing just 1 run on 3 hits in 5 2/3 innings against a good Arizona offense. Mets will send out Jacob deGrom, who has a 2.11 ERA and 1.078 WHIP in his last 3 starts and has a 2.19 ERA in 4 home starts. Give me the UNDER 7.5!

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 215.5)

Boston played much better in the two games in Cleveland than they did in the first two at home and I think part of it is they are moving the ball better offensively. They simply can't play as bad as they did in Games 1 and 2 at home, at least offensively. These two combined for 121 in Boston for Game 1 and then just 116 in Game 2 and that was with the Celtics scoring just 86 and shooting 37.2% from the field. I look for a locked in Cavs offense with the chance to close the series and a good enough showing here from Boston to push this over the mark. Give me the OVER 215.5!

40* NBA NO DOUBT TOTAL NO BRAINER (UNDER 218)

After letting Game 3 get away from them after building a huge lead and watching the Warriors finish off the Spurs last night, I look for a pissed off and extremely motivated Cleveland team to take the floor here and 100% locked in on the defensive side of the ball. At the same time I also think the fact that Boston was able to get a win in Game 3 keeps them locked in and actually gives them some extra incentive here. I think we see the lowest scoring game in this series by far. Give me the UNDER 218!

40* MLB BLOCKBUSTER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (UNDER 9)

I believe we are seeing a bit of an overreaction here on the total based on the poor outings by both of today's starters. Minnesota's Ervin Santana gave up 5 runs in his last start at home against the Rockies and Baltimore's Dylan Bundy allowed 6 runs at Detroit. Even with those poor performances, Santana has a 2.07 ERA in 9 starts and Bundy has a 2.97 ERA in 9 starts. That speaks volumes to how good both of these starters have been this year. Both of these guys also have a history of bouncing back after a poor start. Santana hasn't allowed more than 3 earned runs in consecutive starts over his last 27 outings and Bundy has not allowed more than 3 earned runs in his young career as a starter. Give me the UNDER 9!

50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UNDER 8.5)

Under is worth a good look here, as I don't see a lot of runs being scored in this one. Detroit sends out last year's AL Rookie of the Year, Michael Fulmer, who has continued to throw the ball extremely well. Fulmer enters what will be his 9th start of the season with a sensational 2.72 ERA. He's also stepped up when taking the mound on an opposing team's field, posting a 2.25 ERA in 4 road starts. Houston will give the ball to Brad Peacock, who is making the move from the bullpen to the rotation. He's been excellent out of the pen, posting a 1.10 ERA with 22 stikeouts in 16 1/3 innings of work. He's not going to go deep in this one, but that's no problem, as Houston has an outstanding pen that can take care of the rest. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UNDER 8.5)

I'll gladly play the UNDER at this number in today's game between the Tigers and Rangers. Texas comes in having won 10 straight and are putting up a bunch of runs during this stretch. I believe that's leading to a higher total than what we would normally see in a game with this good of a pitching matchup. Detroit is sending out their ace and in Justin Verlander, who has been lights out at home this season, posting a 0.86 ERA in 3 starts. Texas will counter with A.J. Griffin, who is 4-0 with a 1.38 ERA in 4 road starts and has a 2.37 ERA over his last 3 outings overall. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

40* NBA BLOCKBUSTER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (OVER 218)

It came right down to the final seconds of Game 1 before it went over the total and I think that has a lot of people looking to take the UNDER in Game 2. I'm going the other way, as these two just combined for 221 points with the Celtics failing to score more than 20 points in either of the first two periods. They combined for 121 points in the 2nd half, which is a pace of 242. I'm not saying it gets to that mark, but I don't think Boston has any answer for the Cavs offense and can't be as poor as they were on offense in Game 1 at home. Give me the OVER 218!

50* MLB AL CENTRAL TOTAL OF THE MONTH (UNDER 8)

I love the value here with the total in this one. While most of the midwest is starting to heat up, it's going to be a chilly 54 degrees when this game tips off and only going to get colder as it goes. Not to mention winds are going to be blowing in from left center at close to 10 mph the entire game. Then we factor in that Minnesota is starting a lefty and the Royals are scoring only 2.8 runs/game against left-handed starters. They are also hitting just .210 as a team on the road. Minnesota's offense is in a slump, averaging just 3.0 runs/game over their last 7 and will be facing a red-hot Nate Karns, who has a 2.08 ERA in his last 3 starts (22 strikeouts in his last two outings). Give me the UNDER! 

40* NBA Blockbuster Total Knockout (OVER 209)

I feel like the absense of Leonard along with a more focused Warriors team than we saw at the beginning of Game 1, is going to lead to Golden State playing the entire game at their pace. Keep in mind they put up 71 points in the 2nd half in Game 1. Leonard is a big part of the Spurs offense, but the system that Popovich runs is going to produce open shots, especially with the advantage San Antonio has inside. I think this one flies past the total. Give me the OVER 209!

40* NBA Blockbuster Total Knockout (UNDER 211)

This is all about the magnitude of this being Game 7 with a spot in the Eastern Conference Finals on the line for these two teams. For most of the star players on both sides, this is as far as they have got in the playoffs. I think the pressure started to show itself in Game 6, when they combined for a mere 183 points. Thanks to the public's love of betting the OVER, we are getting a huge total here. Simply too much value for me to pass up. Give me the UNDER 211!

40* Celtics/Wizards NBA Playoffs Total No Brainer (Over 216)

I'm usually an UNDER player in the playoffs, but sometimes you just get a matchup like we have here. Both teams love to get up and down the floor, so there's a lot of possessions both ways, they can each light it up from 3-point range and neither is all that great defensively. Washington had scored 110+ in each of the first 4 games of the series before getting held to 101 in Game 5 (They eclipsed 100 points shooting 38.5% from the field). Only one game in the series has finished below the total set by the books and that was an epic bad shooting night for Boston. I'll take my chances these two eclipse the mark again. Give me the OVER 216!

50* AL East Total of the Month (Under 8.5)

While temps are starting to heat up across the country, it's going to feel like an early April game tonight when the Red Sox host the Rays, as temps are going to be at 50 degrees to start and only get colder from there. Also a slight wind coming in from right. About as good as conditions as you are going to get for a pitcher at Fenway. On top of that we got two starters here that are peaking right now. Tampa's Alex Cobb has a 1.89 ERA in his last 3 starts and Boston's Rick Porcello has a 2.29 ERA in his last 3 starts. Give me the UNDER 8.5!

50* MLB Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Under 7.5)

Two under the radar starters take the mound tonight in LA and I think we are getting a great price and number at 7.5 with even money. Detroit is sending out Michael Fulmer, who isn't experiencing any sort of sophomore slump, going 3-1 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.051 WHIP in his first 6 starts. As for the Angels, they send out J.C. Ramirez, who despite a 1-2 record has a solid 3.45 ERA in 5 starts. Most importantly here is the 1.47 ERA in his last 3 outings and sensational 0.69 ERA in his two starts at home. Not to mention we are getting both offenses coming off a game in which they scored 1 earned on 5 or fewer hits. Give me the UNDER 7.5!

40* NBA Blockbuster Total Knockout (Under 214)

The deeper you get in a series the more familiar each team gets with the other side and what they are trying to do offensively. Houston is known for their up tempo style, but facing elimination, I expect a little more focus on defense and not going quite so fast early in the game, so they have something left in the tank in the 4th quarter. There's always a chance the Rockets could go off with the 3-ball, but San Antonio has held them to 101 or fewer points in regulation in 3 of the last 4 games. Give me the UNDER 214!

40* NBA Blockbuster Total Knockout (Over 216)

These two teams have combined for 223 or more points in 3 of the first 4 games in the series and the only one that didn't was in Washington, where the Celtics couldn't buy a basket. They shot 35.1% from the field, easily one of their worst shooting performances of the entire season. They shot 51.1% from the field in each of the first two games at home in this series and I expect a big night from the Celtics' offense in this one. Washington has scored now fewer than 111 points in the series. Give me the OVER 216!

40* NBA Blockbuster Bookie Knockout (UNDER 214)

I absolutely love the under here in Game 5 tonight. I expect to see the same San Antonio team on defense that we saw in Game 2 and Game 3, where they held the Rockets to 96 and 92 points, respectively. These two teams are also starting to get really familiar with one another. UNDER is 13-3 the last 16 times the Rockets played in a Game 5 and 8-3-1 in Houston's last 12 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Give me the UNDER 214!

50* MLB Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Under 8)

UNDER is worth a look here in today's AL showdown between the Blue Jays and Indians. This isn't your same high-powered Toronto offense from previous seasons, at least not yet, as they are averaging 3.8 runs/game on the season and a mere 3.1 runs/game at home. Won't be easy getting it figured out against the Indians' Carlos Carrasco, who has a 2.18 ERA in 6 starts overall and 1.83 ERA in 3 outings on the road. Mike Bolsinger will make his first start with Toronto this season and I like his chances of throwing well. He posted a 1.46 ERA in Triple-A to start the year and has 18 strikeouts in his 12 1/3 innings of work. Give me the UNDER 8!

50* Interleague Total of the Month (Under 7.5)

I love getting more than 7 runs on the total with a Padres home game, especially in night games. The ball just doesn't carry in San Diego at night and today's game the wind will be blowing in from left center at close to 10 mph when it starts, plus it's only going to be in the low 60's. On top of all that, I like this pitching matchup. Cahill for the Padres loves pitching at Petco, as he has a 0.69 ERA and ridiculous 0.538 WHIP in 2 home starts this season. Martinez doesn't have great numbers, but that's because of one bad start on the road against the high-powered Astros lineup. Prior to that he's allowed 4 earned runs over 11 1/3 innings in two starts. He'll benefit from pitching at Petco as well and the Padres are scoring only 3.2 runs/game at home on the season. Give me the UNDER 7.5!

40* MLB Over/Under Total No Brainer (Under 8.5)

UNDER is worth a look here in Sunday's series finale between the Angels and Astros. Neither offense is going to come into this one feeling all that great, as the two teams combined or just 3 runs in last night's matchup. I also like this starting pitching matchup, even though the overall numbers of both starters isn't great. Angels starter Matt Shoemaker has a 2.98 ERA in 8 career starts against the Astros and Houston starter Michael Fiers has limited the Angels to 3 runs or less over at least 6 innings in 4 of his 5 starts against them. Give me the UNDER 8.5!

40* NBA Vegas Total No Brainer (Under 208)

These two teams combined for 219 points in Game 2 after totaling just 200 in the series opener. I think with the series sitting 2-0 Golden State and it shifting to Utah for Game 3, we are getting some great value here with the total at 208. Utah knows they have to ugly up the game to beat this Warriors team and to do that they have to lock down defensively. They did a pretty good job of it in Golden State and I expect their best defensive effort here, as they know their season is all but over if they fall behind 3-0 in the series. Give me the UNDER 208!

40* MLB Over/Under Total Knockout (Under 11.5)

Most are going to see these two high-powered offenses facing off in hitter friendly Coors Field and want to take the over, but I feel the value here is with the under given the massive total of 11.5. These two have played 4 times already this season and 3 of the 4 finished under the mark set by the books. Arizona's Pat Corbin has been straight dealing to start off 2017, posting a 2.55 ERA in 6 starts. It hasn't been a great start for Rockies starter Tyler Anderson, but I believe he's a lot better than what he's shown. UNDER is 7-0 in the Dbacks last 7 road games after allowing 4 runs or less in 3 straight games. Give me the UNDER 11.5!

50* MLB Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Over 8)

I just think the total here is too good to pass up on. The Pirates and Brewers should have no problem combining for at least 8 runs tonight. Keep in mind these two have a history of high-scoring games in Pittsburgh, as 11 of the last 18 have gone OVER the total. The biggest thing here is we have two starters who are struggling right now. Milwaukee's Jimmy Nelson has a 8.62 ERA in his last 3 starts and the Pirates' Chad Kuhl has a 10.03 ERA in his last 3 starts. Give me the OVER 8!

 50* MLB Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Under 7.5)

I like the pitching matchup here and feel we are getting a favorable number on this total given that conditions aren't ideal for a high scoring game. Temps are going to be in the mid to low 50s for most of the game and the wind will be blowing straight in from center. Cleveland sends out Carlos Carrasco, who has a 2.04 ERA and 0.792 WHIP in 5 starts. Detroit will give the ball to Matt Boyd, who has a 2.08 ERA and 0.923 WHIP at home this season. Give me the UNDER 7.5!

40* Jazz/Warriors Late Night BAILOUT (Under 208)

Utah is going to try and slow down the pace of this game as much as possible. They aren't going to have the energy to play at Golden State's pace after just playing a Game 7 on Sunday against the Clippers. The Jazz will lean heavily on their defense. While I don't think it will be enough to win the game, I think they keep this from turning into a shootout and put the value here on the under. Keep in mind this Golden State defense is no joke and held the Jazz to just 74 points in a matchup this season. Give me the UNDER 208!

40* MLB Blockbuster Total Knockout (Under 8)

I look for a low scoring affair here between the Royals and White Sox. I believe we are catching a big total here due to Quintana's poor numbers overall in 2017 and the fact that Kansas City starter Danny Duffy allowed 6 runs at Chicago back on 4/25. Quintana really pitched well against the Royals in that earlier series and there's a good chance he turns in another strong start. This KC offense is struggling to start 2017, averaging just 2.9 runs/game and hitting a mere .214 as a team. Even with that poor start against the White Sox, Duffy owns a 2.81 ERA in 5 starts and a 1.29 ERA at home. I look for Duffy to get revenge on this Chicago lineup, which is scoring 3.4 runs and hitting only .218 on the road this season. Give me the UNDER 8!

50* MLB AL Over/Under Total of the Month (Under 8)

Love the pitching matchup tonight in Minnesota, as the Twins host the A's. Minnesota will give the ball to Ervin Santana, who had an epic April, where he went 4-0 with a 0.77 ERA and 0.657 WHIP in 5 starts. That includes a complete game shutout against the White Sox at home. I see no reason to think this will be the start he struggles with. Oakland has scored 2 or fewer runs in 5 of their last 7 games. A's are sending out Sonny Gray, who is the ace of the staff when healthy. This will be Gray's first start of 2017 at the big league level. Gray dominated in his rehab starts and I look for a strong outing here. Give me the UNDER 8!

40* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer (Over 216)

This might seem like a big total, given the intensity teams play with on defense in the playoffs, but there tends to be a let down on defense when shifting to a new series. Both of these teams just went on the road and closed out their 1st round series in Game 6. Boston's last 4 games in their series were all low scoring, but that was due to the Bulls offense losing Rondo and just not being able to play at the same pace. Both of these teams love to push the pace and I look for this to be an entertaining game that sees these two combine for more than 220. Give me the OVER 216!

40* MLB Over/Under Total No Brainer (OVER 9)

I'm expecting a lot of offense from both sides in this one, as conditions should heavily favor the hitters tonight. Winds will be blowing straight out to left at close to 15 mph. Houston will send out Lance McCullers, who owns a respectable 3.37 ERA in 4 starts, but 3 of those were at home and his lone road outing saw him give up 5 runs on 8 hits in just 4 1/3 innings to the A's. Cleveland is sending out Trevor Bauer, who has a 6.35 ERA in 3 starts and was awful in his lone start at home, giving up 6 runs on 8 hits to the Tigers. OVER is also 32-18 in Houston's last 50 road games when listed as a favorite of -150 or less. and 14-4 in Cleveland's last 18 home games after a loss by 2 runs or less.

40* MLB Over/Under Total Knockout (UNDER 7.5)

I think we are getting a great number here to back the under in today's total between the White Sox and Royals. Two underrated pitchers will be on the mound in this one. Chicago gives the ball to Miguel Gonzalez, who is 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA in 3 starts and fresh off an outing at New York where he held the Yankees to just 1 run on 4 hits in 8.3 innings. KC will send out Jason Vargas, who is 3-0 with a 0.44 ERA and 0.774 WHIP in 3 starts. He's allowed just 1 run over 20 and 2/3 innings of work this season. Add in we have two below average offensive teams here and the value is clearly with a low-scoring game. Give me the UNDER 7.5!

50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Under 206)

I'm not quite ready to count out Chicago without Rondo, but I think his absence has created some great value here on the UNDER. Rondo is a huge part of Chicago's offense and without him there simply won't be as many open shots. He also did a good job of pushing the ball up the floor, so expect a slower pace than we saw in the first two games of this series. You also have to factor in how big a game this is for Boston being down 0-2 on the road. They are going to give everything they got on defense. Not to mention these two teams are getting familiar with each other. Give me the UNDER 206!

40* MLB Over/Under Total Knockout (DBacks/Padres U 7.5)

The UNDER is always something I look at with games in San Diego, especially at night when the ball really doesn't travel well. Tonight the wind will be blowing in from left, only making it that much harder to score. I also think we have a very underrated pitching matchup here with Greinke going up against Chacin. UNDER is 15-5 in Arizona's last 20 road games and 10-4 in their alst 14 road games against a right-handed starter. Give me the UNDER 7.5!

50* Bucks/Raptors NBA Playoffs Weekend BEST BET (Under 199.5)

This is without a doubt my favorite play on the board in the NBA Playoffs this weekend. Toronto isn't viewed as a great defensive team and they weren't for a good part of this season. The Raptors defensive numbers improved drastically with the additions of Ibaka and Tucker. On the flip side of this, defense was a major part of the Bucks big run down the stretch. Milwaukee's got the size to matchup with anyone and make things difficult on that side of the ball. With the pressure of the playoffs I think we are getting more than 10-points in value here. Give me the UNDER 199.5!

50* MLB Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 8.5)

This isn't going to look like a pitching matchup that would result in a low scoring game, but the total is high enough and the conditions are favoring the under to make this a strong play. The temperature for this game is barely more than 50 degrees and the wind will be blowing straight in from right field. The ball simply isn't going to carry well. On top of that, we have two offenses that aren't swinging the bats well. The White Sox have scored a total of 4 runs in their last 3 games and the Indians have managed just 5 in their last 3. Give me the UNDER 8.5!

40* MLB Late Night Total Bailout (OVER 8.5)

I'm expecting a lot of offensive fireworks to take place tonight. AT&T Park is known for being a pitchers park, but tonight the wind will be blowing out to left field at close to 20 mph. I believe it's going to favor both offenses, especially with the starting pitching matchup we have going. Arizona will send out Shelby Miller, who gave up 3 runs on 5 hits and 3 walks in 5.3 innings at home. Giants will give the ball to Matt Cain, who allowed 4 runs on 6 hits and 3 walks in just 4.3 innings. Neither team has a great bullpen, which should have runs coming early and often. Give me the OVER 8.5!

40* MLB Over/Under Total Knockout (UNDER 7.5)

These two teams combined for 20 runs in Game 1 of the series and 11 more in Game 2, both going well over the total. Each of those games had prime hitting conditions with the wind blowing out. This time it will be blowing in from left field. Not only that, but we have two starters facing off that were both sensational in their first outing of the season. Cardinals' Mike Leake allowed just 1 run in 8 innings and the Nationals' Max Scherzer gave up only 2 runs in 6 2/3 innings. Give me the UNDER 7.5!