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NCAA Basketball Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
12-13-20	Massachusetts -3 v. Northeastern	Top	75-78	Loss	-112	10 h 55 m	Show
These two teams opened their seasons just two days ago facing each other in the front end of a home-and-home series. It was no contest. UMass built a 20-point lead and easily handled Northeastern, 94-79. The Minutemen also defeated Northeastern last season by nine points. Tre Mitchell of UMass was the best player on the court scoring 31 points. The sophomore guard averaged 17.7 points last season. Northeastern is in rebuild mode having lost its two top scorers from last season. The Huskies are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games. The Minutemen are ranked 119th in Ken Pomeroy's highly-respected college basketball ratings while the Huskies are placed at 182nd. I see no reason why UMass shouldn't win and cover again in this short turnaround.
12-12-20	Dayton v. Mississippi State UNDER 135	Top	85-82	Loss	-110	11 h 51 m	Show
After opening with three home games, Dayton is playing on the road for the first time. The Flyers have failed to break the 66-point barrier in any of their games going against Eastern Illinois, SMU and Northern Kentucky. SMU ranks 91st in scoring defense, Northern Kentucky rates 170th in scoring defense and Eastern Illinois is 192nd. So it's not like the Flyers have played outstanding defensive opponents. Dayton is committing an average of 18.7 turnovers a game. So this has hampered the Flyers' offense. Mississippi State is the best defensive team the Flyers have faced. The Bulldogs rank 56th in scoring defense. Mississippi State does not play at a fast pace. The Bulldogs lost much of their offense from last season. This game is being played at neutral site Atlanta so that's a plus for the Under, too.
12-12-20	Wofford +3.5 v. South Florida		56-58	Win	100	7 h 47 m	Show
Wofford is more than capable of beating South Florida, a below average American Athletic Conference team. Note this game is a neutral site matchup being played in Atlanta. The Terriers are one of the highest-scoring teams in the nation averaging 90.3 points. They rank 18th in scoring and 10th in shooting percentage. Wofford's lone loss in three games occurred on the road to Richmond, 77-72. The Spiders are one of the top mid-major teams in the country. South Florida is 3-2. The Bulls' wins have come against very weak competition - Florida College, Florida Gulf Coast and Stetson - while their losses were in step-up games against Rhode Island and Virginia Tech. South Florida was blown out in both of those games.
12-12-20	Florida +3 v. Florida State		71-83	Loss	-109	7 h 57 m	Show
I like getting this many points in this in-state rivalry matchup. This isn't so much a fade on Florida State as it is a play on Florida, which is coming on after having its first three games cancelled because of COVID-19. The Gators are 3-0, including an impressive 90-70 victory against Boston College at a neutral site. The Gators have a star in forward Keyontae Johnson, who was voted the SEC's Preseason Player of the Year. He's averaging 19.7 points and shooting 63.9 percent from the floor. Guard Tre Mann also is playing extremely well for Florida. Florida State has played just twice and only once during the last 10 days. The Seminoles escaped with a 69-67 overtime home victory against Indiana this past Wednesday, failing to cover as 3-point favorites. The Hooisers nearly won despite shooting 37 percent from the floor and missing 11 of 15 3-point shots.
12-11-20	Marquette v. UCLA UNDER 140.5	Top	60-69	Win	100	19 h 49 m	Show
Marquette remains a very good team, but the Golden Eagles are a different kind of good team from last season since they no longer have superstar Markus Howard. Howard led the nation in scoring last season. The Golden Eagles go all the way down from Howard averaging nearly 30 points a game to Koby McEwen, who leads Marquette in scoring at 16.6. The Golden Eagles use more motion offense now with frequent passing that leads to a balanced attack and takes time off the clock. The result is they've dropped 81 spots in terms of tempo ranking 141st in pace. Marquette has played five games. This is the Golden Eagles' first road road matchup. So I expect them to play even more cautious and deliberate especially given that UCLA is a high-scoring team. The Bruins, however, are stepping up against a much stronger defensive foe than they've encountered. Marquette ranks 17th in defensive field goal percentage. UCLA is talented, too, on the defensive end. The key in accessing the Bruins is their pace. Second-year UCLA coach Mick Cronin wants to take advantage of his team's quality depth by playing up-tempo. So far, though, that hasn't transpired as the Bruins rate among the bottom 20 percent in pace.
12-11-20	Nevada -1.5 v. Grand Canyon		77-87	Loss	-110	18 h 13 m	Show
So far so good for Grand Canyon and its new coach, Bryce Drew, as the Antelopes are 3-0. But I see the Antelopes taking their first loss here. Nevada has played a far more difficult schedule than Grand Canyon. Among the foes the Wolf Pack have met are San Francisco, North Dakota State, Nebraska and Pacific. The Antelopes have played a Division III school and opponents who are ranked 333th and 377th, which is last, in the KenPom.com ratings. Grand Canyon also figures to be rusty, having not played in 10 days. The Antelopes' home-court edge isn't going to be much either due to limited fan capacity. Grand Canyon's calling card is height. Nevada counters that with a much better 3-point shooting game. Nevada center Warren Washington also has been playing well. The Wolf Pack have experience with four players back from their 19-win team of last season plus transfers. I see an obvious class difference and situational edge here that Grand Canyon's superior height won't be able to overcome.
12-10-20	Cal-Riverside -6.5 v. Northern Arizona		74-50	Win	100	18 h 39 m	Show
On the surface we have a Big West Conference team, UC Cal-Riverside, taking on a Big Sky Conference foe, Northern Arizona, on the road. So the game should be close, right, considering we have two small conference teams going at it? I don't see it that way. I believe UC Cal-Riverside is much superior to Northern Arizona and the oddsmaker hasn't caught up to this. Northern Arizona has played only one game. That came four days ago. The Lumberjacks were crushed by Arizona, 96-53, as 23-point road 'dogs. Arizona nearly doubled the 23-point spread shooting 66.7 percent from the floor and making 59.1 percent of its 3-point shots. Riverside is coming off a 20-point road victory against Denver this past Sunday. The Highlanders put up 83 points and made 46.9 percent of their shots from beyond the range. This doesn't bode well for Northern Arizona. UC-Cal Riverside should be able to hurt the Lumberjacks from outside and score inside with center Jock Perry. The Highlanders are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five road games. They have a strong history, too, of covering against weaker opponents going 12-3 ATS versus foes with a winning percentage below .400.
12-09-20	Southern Utah -2.5 v. Utah Valley		81-71	Win	100	16 h 8 m	Show
There's a class difference here not reflected in the betting line, which is too short. Southern Utah has won three in a row, including beating Montana twice. The Thunderbirds were underdogs both times. Southern Utah forward Maizen Fausett was named Big Sky Conference Player of the Week. Utah Valley is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games and 1-8 ATS the past nine times when going against above .500 opponents. The Thunderbirds can hurt Utah Valley in transition. Southern Utah dominated Montana in transition. That should be the case in this matchup, too.
12-09-20	Furman +4 v. Cincinnati	Top	73-78	Loss	-110	13 h 22 m	Show
If you go by the highly respected KenPom.com ratings you'll see that Cincinnati is ranked 63rd and Furman right behind the Bearcats at 64. The Paladins are favored to win the Southern Conference. They have played only low-major opponents so far, but the results have been impressive: 4-0 with an average victory margin of 31.2 points. Furman had one of the 100 most efficient offenses in the country last season. The Paladins were among the top 10 best mid-majors in the country. So this isn't going to be an easy opponent for Cincinnati, especially given that the 1-1 Bearcats aren't playing well defensively and don't have a set rotation. This quote from Cincinnati coach John Brannen is telling: "I'm really learning our team," Brannen said following the Bearcats' 77-69 loss to Xavier this past Sunday. "We don't have a rotation yet. Those are things that we're learning." Furman guard Mike Bothwell is playing at a very high level averaging nearly 22 points a game. The Paladins have covered five of their last six road games. The Bearcats are 0-7 ATS at home going back to last season and 1-6 ATS after not covering in their previous game.
12-08-20	Green Bay +22.5 v. Marquette		68-82	Win	100	15 h 6 m	Show
Green Bay catches Marquette at a good time. The Golden Eagles are still basking in the glory and satisfaction of defeating fourth-ranked Wisconsin, 67-65, this past Friday night at home. That was Marquette's first victory against a Top 5 program since 2017. So a letdown is very much a possibility for Marquette. The key question is if Green Bay is good enough to cover this large number? The Phoenix are 0-3. But they've played two tough Big Ten teams, Wisconsin and Minnesota. Green Bay was blown out in those games, but showed better in its last game, a two-overtime loss to Eastern Illinois. Green Bay is battle tested enough and given this scheduling break of drawing Marquette fat and happy, I believe the Phoenix can stay within the number.
12-08-20	Green Bay v. Marquette UNDER 153.5	Top	68-82	Win	100	15 h 5 m	Show
Marquette is learning to adjust to life post Markus Howard, who was the leading college basketball scorer last season averaging 27.8 points. The Golden Eagles' leading scorer so far this season is Koby McEwan at 13.8. The Golden Eagles are more defensive-minded and passing the ball more now that they no longer have superstar Howard. Green Bay is likely to slow the pace, which will be OK with Marquette. The Phoenix averaged just 55.5 points in losses to Minnesota and Wisconsin.
12-07-20	Northern Arizona +23 v. Arizona		53-96	Loss	-110	16 h 26 m	Show
Northern Arizona is extremely anxious to play. This is the Lumberjacks' first game. They are a slightly above average Big Sky Conference team. I like the spot for the Lumberjacks and believe they have enough talent to cover this large spread. Arizona barely beat another Big Sky team, Eastern Washington, two days ago. The Wildcats won, 70-67, failing to cover as 12 1/2-point home favorites. Arizona is down three of its better players with Kerr Kriisa, Daniel Batcho and Ira Lee all out. Northern Arizona has one of the Big Sky's top players in versatile point guard Cameron Shelton. The Lumberjacks also have an excellent 3-point shooter in Luke Avdalovic and Jay Green, who transferred from UNLV. The Lumberjacks treat this in-state matchup more serious than Arizona. Northern Arizona coach Shane Burcar really wants a good showing. He replaced Jack Murphy last season after Murphy left for Arizona to become the associate head coach under Sean Miller. Certainly the Lumberjacks won't lack motivation going against their former coach.
12-07-20	Hampton v. Norfolk State UNDER 147	Top	64-76	Win	100	15 h 50 m	Show
My first look in rivalry matchups such as this is to the Under. The more I study this game the clearer it becomes that Under is the right play. Hampton is down four of its top six scorers from last season, including Jermaine Morrow and Ben Stanley. Those two combined to average nearly 47 points a game. The Pirates like to play inside to their strength. That means more of a half-court game and slower pace. Norfolk State usually is one of the top defensive teams in the Mid-Eastern Atlantic Conference. Defense, not offense, is the Spartans' calling card. The teams met last season and Hampton won, 64-53, at home. That game went Under by 25 1/2 points.
12-06-20	Seton Hall +3 v. Penn State		98-92	Win	100	16 h 44 m	Show
I'm not convinced Penn State is the better team in this matchup even though Seton Hall is off to a slow start. The Nittany Lions had an easy win against overmatched VMI in their opener and then nipped VCU, 72-69, this past Wednesday on a 3-pointer at the buzzer. Penn State failed to cover, though. So going back to last season, the Nittany Lions are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games. Seton Hall is 1-3 with a victory against Iona, but losses to Louisville by one point, to Rhode Island on the road and to 21st-ranked Oregon, 83-70, two days ago. The Ducks were blazing in that game hitting 53 percent of their shots from the floor. I envision the Pirates playing with a great deal of urgency. A straight-up victory by the Pirates would not surprise.
12-06-20	Cal-Riverside -4.5 v. Denver		83-63	Win	100	11 h 54 m	Show
I like the way Cal-Riverside is playing defense. The Highlanders upset Washington, 57-42, at a neutral site in their last game after losing their opener to Pacific on the road, 66-60. Cal-Riverside already is battle tested at this early stage. The same can not be said for Denver. The Pioneers have played only one game and that was an 82-66 home victory against Regis University, a Division II program. Denver also could be rusty having not played in eight days.
12-05-20	South Carolina v. Houston UNDER 140.5	Top	67-77	Loss	-110	14 h 56 m	Show
Only five teams have surrendered fewer points per game than Houston. The 3-0 Cougars have held their foes to 52 points on 36.7 percent shooting from the floor while forcing nearly 18 turnovers per game. Houston has become much more of a half-court team slowing down pace. That has factored into the Cougars' strong defensive showing. South Carolina has been slow to begin the season without getting to play any exhibition games. The Gamecocks are averaging 65.5 points in losing 78-62 to Liberty and beating Tulsa, 69-58. The Gamecocks are better on defense than they are on offense. Games played at Houston historically are lower-scoring than projected. The Under is 21-7-1 in the Cougars' last 29 home contests.
12-04-20	South Alabama +10 v. Auburn		81-90	Win	100	13 h 19 m	Show
South Alabama hung in against Auburn last season losing, 70-69, as seven-point home 'dogs. Right now Auburn isn't nearly as good as it was last season yet the spread is double-digits, which is too high even given that the Tigers are home. This game means more to South Alabama than it does to Auburn and the Jaguars draw the Tigers at a good time. Auburn is feeling its way around after losing its top six scorers from last season. The Tigers brought in point guard Sharife Cooper, a five-star recruit. But Cooper has eligibility issues and has yet to play. The result has been chaos, turnovers and uncertainty at point guard. The Tigers haven't been shooting well, nor converting their free throws. They are extremely young with no seniors and just three juniors. South Alabama is 3-1 and playing with confidence. I see the Jaguars hanging in just like last season.
12-04-20	Oregon v. Seton Hall +3	Top	83-70	Loss	-103	13 h 23 m	Show
Oregon may have the higher ceiling, but right now these teams are very even. I consider this a pick''em type game so I'll gladly accept points with the underdog Pirates. This game is at neutral site Omaha, Neb. The Pirates have covered a highly impressive 81 percent of their last 22 neutral site games. Due to COVID-19 issues, Oregon has been able to play only one game. The Ducks' opener against Eastern Washington was postponed. Oregon is breaking in four new starters. The Ducks are without Will Richardson, one of their best players. He's out with a thumb injury. So Oregon really needs to get into action. Seton Hall already is battle tested. The Pirates defeated Iona, but lost 71-70 to Louisville as a 5-point 'dog and fell 76-63 to Rhode Island.
12-03-20	Montana +1 v. Southern Utah		63-64	Push	0	14 h 43 m	Show
Montana hadn't played in 266 days until meeting USC this past Saturday. The Grizzlies were rusty in the first half, but outscored the Trojans by five during the second half in a 76-62 loss. There's no shame in losing to the unbeaten Trojans, who dealt BYU its first loss of the season. Now the Grizzlies step down in class to face Southern Utah, which just got through playing some school named St. Katherine. So the Thunderbirds are in the opposite situation stepping up in class. Southern Utah hasn't been good at home failing to cover 11 of the past 14 times.
12-02-20	Oregon State v. Washington State UNDER 139	Top	55-59	Win	100	20 h 6 m	Show
Neither Oregon State nor Washington State is expected to be much of a factor in the Pac-12 this season. So far so good, though, as each team is 2-0. Both teams have been winning with defense and slowing the ball down. I'm expecting a half-court type game here with plenty of defensive intensity. Oregon State opened its season defeating California, 71-63, and then buried overmatched NAIA opponent Northwest, 114-42, this past Friday. That was the Beavers' highest-scoring game in 33 years. It also skews their statistics. Their offense isn't as efficient this season minus Tres Tinkle. Washington State opened with a 56-52 victory against Texas Southern. That game went Under by 36 points. The Cougars followed up that impressive defensive effort with a 71-68 victory against offensively-talented Eastern Washington this past Saturday. That game also went Under. Lack of practice time and games being cancelled have slowed down some offenses. Here's a telling quote from Cougars coach Kyle Smith. "It's just an odd (feeling)," Smith was quoted as saying. "The scores in these games are going to be different to where you should be come January."
12-02-20	Tennessee Tech +23 v. Xavier		48-79	Loss	-100	7 h 36 m	Show
Tennessee Tech has some size and athleticism. The Golden Eagles play a lot of man-to-man, half-court defense, which Xavier hasn't seen too much. Keishawn Davidson is a good player. But most of this handicap to underdog Tennessee Tech is a play against Xavier. The Musketeers are 4-0, but haven't been playing well. Their last three victories against Bradley, Toledo and Eastern Kentucky have been by a combined seven points, including nipping Eastern Kentucky, 99-96 in overtime, on Monday. This marks Xavier's fifth game in seven days. The Musketeers have a rivalry game against Cincinnati on deck. The Musketeers are 0-6 ATS following a victory. Tennessee Tech is 0-2 and averages just 56.5 points. The Golden Eagles are 316th in KenPom.com's rating compared to Xavier's being 65th. But given the situation and Xavier not playing up to its capability yet, I'll accept this many points.
12-02-20	St. John's v. BYU -1		68-74	Win	100	12 h 1 m	Show
I want BYU going for me after the Cougars were upset and smashed by USC, 79-53, on Monday in the Legends Classic opener in the Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Conn. St. John's had to work very hard to get past Boston College, 97-93, on Monday in its Legends Classic opener. St. John's is 3-0 with victories against St. Peter's, LaSalle and Boston College. The Johnnies pulled out a 76-75 win against St. Peter's by rallying for four points with 17 seconds left. St. John's was 10 1/2-point favorites in that game. BYU was 3-0 until falling to USC. The Cougars are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country. But they were ice cold against the Trojans shooting 23 percent from beyond the arc and 27 percent from the field. I expect the Cougars to bounce back. They are 6-0 ATS following a loss. BYU won its first three games by an average of 33 points. St. John's ranks 203rd in 3-point defense. The Johnnies also are breaking in a new point guard. Along with their ability to hit 3-pointers, the Cougars have size and depth, which is key with both teams playing without rest.
12-01-20	Kentucky v. Kansas -4.5	Top	62-65	Loss	-110	17 h 37 m	Show
Both teams are replacing key players. But Kansas' rebuild job is further along and far less daunting than Kentucky's. The Wildcats are likely to get better as the season progresses, but right now they are extremely inexperienced and not ready for an opponent the caliber of Kansas. Kentucky, starting four freshmen, was exposed by Richmond two days ago losing, 76-64, as 6 1/2-point favorites. The Wildcats were 0-for-10 from 3-point range and committed 21 turnovers. Keion Brooks Jr. is Kentucky's only returning starter and he has a leg injury. The Wildcats have missed 18 of 26 3-pointers on the season. Kansas had a good test in its opener falling, 102-90, to top-ranked Gonzaga. The Jayhawks rebounded to beat Saint Joseph's, 94-72, this past Friday. Kansas showed good depth in that game. Christian Braun and redshirt freshman point guard Dajuan Harris were sharp in that game. The Jayhawk are ahead of the Wildcats right now. Kansas has shown offensive efficiency while Kentucky's defense and outside shooting have not been impressive.
12-01-20	North Carolina A&T +4 v. Charleston Southern		70-63	Win	100	14 h 4 m	Show
Charleston Southern has been one of the worst point spread teams going back to last season failing to cover in 9 of its last 10 games. Minus their top player, injured Phlandrous Fleming Jr., the Buccaneers have averaged only 55.5 points in losing and failing to cover during their first two games getting blown out by NC State and Eastern Kentucky. Fleming isn't expected to play here. But Kameron Langley is. He's North Carolina A&T's top player and maybe the best player in the Mid-East Athletic Conference. Langley and fellow seniors Tyrone Lyons and Blake Harris provide plenty of experience, scoring and assists for the Aggies. Langley is one of the top assist guys in the country. Charleston Southern hasn't done anything. The Buccaneers could have problems with Langley setting a fast tempo and with the Aggies' press. So I don't see the Buccaneers being favored even being at home.
11-30-20	Stanford v. Alabama -2		82-64	Loss	-112	16 h 33 m	Show
I know Alabama can produce points. I'm not so sure about Stanford. The Cardinal ranked 228th in scoring last season averaging 69.5. They are not a good free throw shooting team and no longer have Tyrell Terry, who was a second round draft pick of the Dallas Mavericks. This is Stanford's first game of the season. Alabama showed some defense in its opener, defeating Jacksonville State, 81-57, at home this past Wednesday covering as 21-point favorites. The Crimson Tide got some of the kinks out. I'm looking for them to play better in this step-up game. Note this matchup is being played in a downtown arena in Asheville, N.C. after the Maui Invitational was relocated. That's a plus for Alabama, the southern school. Stanford is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 neutral site matchups.
11-30-20	Eastern Kentucky v. Xavier OVER 144.5		96-99	Win	100	13 h 7 m	Show
Tempo is one of the key ingredients in getting involved with a college basketball total. Xavier coach Travis Steele has his team playing at a quicker pace. The Musketeers have mostly been doing that going Over in two of their first three games. Eastern Kentucky certainly will be willing to run and press against Xavier. The Colonels play at the seventh-fastest pace in the country. "They're going to play really fast," Steele said about the Colonels. The Colonels are averaging 70 points in their two games, but are due to shoot much better from the perimeter as they've missed 47 of 56 shots from 3-point range.
11-29-20	Virginia Tech v. South Florida +8.5		76-58	Loss	-115	10 h 21 m	Show
South Florida is a borderline postseason contender with a defensive-minded backcourt and size up front. The Bulls didn't shoot well on Saturday and lost, 84-68, to Rhode Island in the Basketball Hall of Fame Tip-off at Mohegan Sun Arena in Connecticut. No fans were in attendance. So it's easy to overlook South Florida when it takes on 2-0 Virginia Tech today. The 2-0 Hokies are coming off a huge, 81-73, overtime upset victory against third-ranked Villanova in the tournament. Virginia Tech was supposed to have played Temple. But the Owls had to drop out due to COVID-19 issues. So the Hokies may not have their full focus after that huge and unexpected victory against such a power. South Florida coach Brian Gregory knows Virginia Tech, an ACC team, from having coached against them when he was the head man at Georgia Tech.
11-28-20	Eastern Washington +4 v. Washington State		68-71	Win	100	13 h 11 m	Show
Eastern Washington is very eager to play after its opener against Oregon was cancelled. The Eagles have the speed and perimeter shooting to pull the outright upset. Washington State is a young rebuilding team that went 6-12 in the Pac-12 last season. The Cougars are improving, but I don't rate them better than Eastern Washington, which won the Big Sky Conference last season and is picked by many to repeat. The Eagles likely were going to the NCAA Tournament before the season was cancelled. Washington State didn't look sharp in its opener this past Wednesday. The Cougars trailed at halftime before getting past Texas Souther, 56-52, as 12-point home favorites.
11-28-20	Loyola Marymount v. Minnesota OVER 143	Top	73-88	Win	100	15 h 43 m	Show
Minnesota is going to be a higher scoring team this season. The Gophers have more players who can effectively score and they are playing at a very up-tempo pace. That was evident in Minnesota's first game, a 99-69 win against Green Bay. The Gophers nearly hit the century mark despite missing 27 of 34 shots from 3-point range. Loyola Marymount showed under new coach Stan Johnson that it will be playing much faster, too. The Lions nipped Southern Utah, 85-83, in their opener. A major takeaway from that game was the number of possessions, it exceeded any of the Lions' games from last season. This is just the fourth day of the college basketball season and the oddsmaker hasn't caught up to these two teams yet setting this total too low.
11-27-20	Mercer +13 v. Georgia Tech		83-73	Win	100	10 h 8 m	Show
Georgia Tech is coming off a tough, 123-120, four-overtime loss to Georgia State in its opening game two days ago. The Yellow Jackets better not sleep on this opponent, or they could be in trouble. Mercer has just a 15-minute drive so this isn't much of a road trip. The Bears are going to be taking this neighborhood matchup very serious, probably more so than Georgia Tech. This is the first meeting between the teams since 2011. Mercer easily beat North Georgia, 79-48, on Wednesday. A key for the Bears is the return of senior sharpshooter Ross Cummings, who missed much of last season due to a foot injury. Cummings could finish as Mercer's all-time leader in 3-pointers made. The Bears finished last season with an above .500 record in true road games. They dealt East Tennessee State its lone home loss last season with a 16-point win. Mercer has covered six of its past seven away games.
11-27-20	Arkansas-Little Rock +3 v. NC-Greensboro		70-77	Loss	-102	9 h 54 m	Show
These are a pair of good teams from small conferences. The game is being played in neutral site Louisville as part of the Wade Houston Classic tournament. Arkansas Little Rock has the advantage of already having played. The Trojans downed Prairie View A&M, 71-66, on Wednesday. NC Greensboro not only hasn't played yet, but the Spartans weren't even able to have any preseason scrimmages against outside competition. I don't see the Spartans being the superior team, so I'll accept these points and back Arkansas Little Rock.
11-26-20	Utah State v. South Dakota State +2.5	Top	59-83	Win	100	9 h 49 m	Show
Utah State lost, 85-69, to Virginia Commonweath as a short favorite on Wednesday in its first round game in the Crosscover Classic in Sioux Falls, S.D. It was the fourth straight time the Aggies have failed to cover laying points. Utah State has a lot of inexperience this season. Aggies coach Craig Smith is using the early part of the season to experiment and get playing time for his inexperienced team of which nine members enter the season having never played a minute for the Aggies. So there is a huge unknown quality to Utah State. Not so with South Dakota State. The Jackrabbits have been one of the best spread teams in the country covering 20 of their last 26, including losing 79-71, to West Virginia as 11-point 'dogs in their first game of the tournament on Wednesday. The Jackrabbits were hanging tough trailing by four points during the second half, but could not get closer. They have covered six of the last eight times as a 'dog.
11-25-20	Eastern Illinois +19.5 v. Wisconsin	Top	67-77	Win	100	13 h 8 m	Show
Wisconsin should be very good again this season returning nearly its entire rotation from its 21-10 team of last season. The Badgers, though, needed a late 15-0 run to beat Eastern Illinois, 65-52, last season. The Panthers had kept the game close trailing by just 46-43 with less than nine minutes remaining. Eastern Illinois went 17-15 last season and returns its top seven scorers, including Josiah Wallace. He was the fifth-leading scorer in the Ohio Valley Conference last season averaging 19.6 points.
11-25-20	Cal-Irvine +2 v. Pepperdine		72-86	Loss	-110	10 h 38 m	Show
UC Irvine has a front-court edge, is the stronger defensive team and is much better coached with Russell Turner against Pepperdine's Lorenzo Romar. The Anteaters had a strong chance to reach the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year before the season was cancelled going 21-11. Pepperdine is a mediocre West Coast Conference team that went 16-16 and had one of the worst defenses in the country.
11-25-20	Toledo v. Bradley -3		59-61	Loss	-116	6 h 27 m	Show
Bradley won the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament last season and has good depth this season. The Braves haven't had to endure a full COVID-19 quarantine like Toledo did. The Braves beat the Rockets, 78-66, last season. Bradley coach Brian Wardle knows Toledo coach Tod Kowalcyk having served five seasons under him at Green Bay. So playing Toledo has extra meaning for Bradley.
03-11-20	Kansas State v. TCU -1.5	Top	53-49	Loss	-109	16 h 43 m	Show
TCU was 2-0 versus Kansas State during the regular season. I don't see that pattern changing in their Big 12 Conferernce Tournament game. The Horned Frogs have played better down the stretch even defeating Baylor three games ago. TCU has a chance to draw an NIT bid with a good tournament showing. Kansas State is not going anywhere with a 10-21 record, 3-15 mark in the Big 12. The Wildcats actually are a little fat and happy having halted a 10-game losing streak with a 79-63 home win against Iowa State this past Saturday on their senior day. TCU is the better and more motivated squad. The Horned Frogs also have revenge incentive. Kansas State defeated them, 70-61, in the Big 12 Tournament last year.
03-11-20	Florida Atlantic v. Old Dominion UNDER 131.5		66-56	Win	100	14 h 24 m	Show
The last time these teams met was 10 days ago. Old Dominion won, 85-80, in overtime. Both teams shot well from the floor. But that final score shouldn't disguise the fact that Florida Atlantic is a strong defensive-minded team. So are the Monarchs. They also play at a slow pace. These teams are familiar with each other having just met. That's a plus for the defenses. This is a netural site setting, too - the Ford Center in Frisco, Texas. That's another plus for the Under especially given Old Dominion's track record there, which is five games played in the last two years all of which fell below 121 points.
03-11-20	CS Sacramento v. Weber State +4		62-54	Loss	-110	9 h 54 m	Show
These are two evenly matched teams - each 8-12 - playing at a neutral site in the first round of the Big Sky Conference Tournament. So I am happy to accept this many points with Weber State. The Wildcats average nearly seven points more per game than Sacramento State. The Hornets are the better defensive team, but they enter tourney play giving up 76 and 79 points during their last two games, losses to Portland State and Montana. Weber State beat Sacramento State during the most recent meeting, 70-66, as 1-point home 'dogs on Feb. 6.
03-10-20	Illinois-Chicago +4.5 v. Northern Kentucky		62-71	Loss	-115	8 h 30 m	Show
Illinois Chicago is on a tremendous roll in the Horizon League tournament with three wins and covers, including a highly impressive 73-56 victory against top-ranked Wright State on Monday. There was nothing flukish about the Flames' win as the they built a 27-point lead versus Wright State. I'm going to ride with the Flames here in the title game. These two teams met on Feb. 16 at Northern Kentucky. It was no contest. Illinois Chicago destroyed the Norse by 30 points. Now the Flames are peaking and taking points on top of it. Count me in.
03-10-20	Pittsburgh v. Wake Forest +1.5		81-72	Loss	-110	9 h 16 m	Show
Pittsburgh has a history of playing poorly at the end of the season and this year has proven to be no exception. The Panthers are 2-10 in their last 12 games. They've lost their last seven games. They have scored 57 points or fewer in five of their past seven games, while giving up 72 or more points in four of their past five games. Wake Forest showed its ability posting late February victories against Duke and Notre Dame. Pittsburgh lost by eight points to Notre Dame and by 12 points to Duke, although both of those defeats were on the road while Wake Forest's victories versus those two opponents were at home. Still, in a pick type of betting line at a neutral site, the Demon Deacons are the team I want going for me. Wake Forest beat Pittsburgh, 69-65, on the road in the lone meeting this season. The Demon Deacons won despite falling behind 22-6 during the first half. It was Wake Forest's fourth straight victory versus Pittsburgh.
03-09-20	Coastal Carolina +5 v. Appalachian State	Top	65-70	Push	0	11 h 40 m	Show
Coastal Carolina averages nearly 10 more points per game than Appalachian State. That showed when the teams last met 10 days ago at Appalachian State. The Chanticleers won, 84-77, as 4-point road 'dogs. The Chanticleers average nearly 80 points on the road. The Mountaineers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home agmes and 1-8 ATS the past nine times when favored. I really like Coastal Carolina point guard DeVante Jones. I also like the way the Chanticleers stepped up defensively in their last game nipping Texas-Arlington, 63-62, as 5.5-point road 'dogs in their first round Sun Belt Conference Tournament game this past Saturday. The Mountaineers have short revenge, but Coast Carolina certainly isn't going to lack incentive knowing it needs to win this Sun Belt Conference Tourney to qualify for the NCAA Tournament.
03-08-20	North Dakota v. South Dakota UNDER 154.5	Top	74-71	Win	100	15 h 56 m	Show
South Dakota won both games from North Dakota during the regular season shooting better than 50 percent combined from the floor during the two games. The Coyotes beat North Dakota, 77-67, at home on Feb. 29 and on the road, 82-68, on Feb. 8. It's important to note that the combined total of those two games was 144 and 150 despite South Dakota's hot shooting. Both of those final numbers are less than what this total opened at. I don't expect either team to shoot that well for several reasons. There is going to be a rust factor since neither team has played since that Feb. 29 matchup. This game is at a neutral site in Sioux Falls being the first game of the Summit League Tournament. South Dakota really could be impacted since it relies on its 3-point shooting. North Dakota has had some misleading final scores recently due to overtime games. If you just count regulation, the Fighting Hawks have scored 74 or fewer points in seven of their last eight games.
03-07-20	Valparaiso +3.5 v. Missouri State		89-82	Win	100	6 h 40 m	Show
I'm surprised to see Missouri State favored by this large amount in what I consider to be a pick type matchup. Both teams have been playing well, but I like Valparaiso's momentum. The Crusaders are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games and have won six of their past eight games. Their adrenalin should be pumped after pulling off an upset overtime victory against Loyola on Friday. Valparaiso hosted Missouri State on Feb. 25 and easily won, 89-74.
03-07-20	Penn State -7 v. Northwestern	Top	69-80	Loss	-105	8 h 16 m	Show
Penn State needs to get well and Northwestern is the perfect remedy. The Nittany Lions are in a kill mood after losing four of their last five games, including a 79-71 loss to 17th-ranked Michigan State this past Tuesday. Before meeting the Spartans, the Nittany Lions played at Iowa, hosted Rutgers, played at Indana and hosted Illinois. Now they are dropping way down in class. Northwestern has lost 13 of its last 14 games with its one win during this span coming in overtime against Nebraska when the Cornhuskers missed a mind-boggling 22 of 30 free throws. Each of the Wildcats' last six losses have been by eight or more points. Northwestern is on pace to lose its most Big Ten games in 30 years. The Wildcats are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games, too. The teams met on Feb. 15 and Penn State had no problem handling Northwestern winning, 77-61.
03-07-20	UTEP +3.5 v. Rice		77-72	Win	100	5 h 49 m	Show
UTEP is playing well winning and covering its last three games. The Miners have held their past three foes to an average of 58 points. I trust their defense more than Rice's defense. The Owls have surrendered at least 68 points in 24 of their last 27 games. The Miners own the best low-post player on the court in Bryson Williams. The teams just met on Feb. 22 at UTEP. The Miners won, 68-62, despite shooting just 39 percent from the field and Williams scoring only 10 points, which is seven below his average. I see UTEP shooting better and Williams have a stronger performance.
03-06-20	Austin Peay v. Murray State -113	Top	61-73	Win	100	11 h 25 m	Show
The teams just met on Feb. 29 and Murray State had no trouble this time putting away an opponent. The Racers buried Austin Peay, 75-61, as 4-point home favorites. So I was expecting this line to open a little higher being on a neutral court in this Ohio Valley Conference Tournament being played in Evansville, Ind. Austin Peay has failed to cover in its last three games. The Governors are 4-9 ATS the last 13 times they were an underdog. Murray State, on the other hand, enters this matchup on a three-game win streak while not allowing more than 63 points during its last five games.
03-06-20	Ohio +2 v. Miami-OH	Top	67-65	Win	100	12 h 7 m	Show
Wrong team favored. Ohio buried Miami of Ohio, 77-46, when it hosted the Redhawks on Feb. 8. I don't see anything that has changed now a month later. Miami of Ohio being home doesn't alter that. The Redhawks are 3-7 in their last 10 games, scoring 65 or fewer points in seven of those matchups. They are last in the Mid-American Conference East Division with a 5-12 record. The Bobcats have held eight of their last 10 opponents to 69 points or fewer, while averaging 71.1 points. They are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games. Jason Preston has been hot for the Bobcats scoring at least 18 points in five of his last six games.
03-05-20	Portland v. Santa Clara -7	Top	62-76	Win	100	18 h 1 m	Show
Portland enters tournament play on one of the worst runs in the nation going 0-14 SU, 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 games. The Pilots have scored 65 or fewer points in nine of their last 11 games. Santa Clara averages 75.8 points a game. Santa Clara buried Portland, 85-61, on the road in the first meeting this season on Feb. 1. Santa Clara hosted the Pilots in a rematch on Feb. 29 and just won by five, 73-68. Portland, a bad shooting team, made 10 of 24 from 3-point range and sank 80 percent of its free throws. The Pilots are a 67.5 percent shooting free throw team. Now the stakes are raised with this being a first-round West Coast Conference Tournament game at neutral site Las Vegas. I don't see Portland being able to stay within single digits this time around.
03-05-20	Weber State -4 v. Idaho		72-64	Win	100	16 h 37 m	Show
Prior to losing to Idaho State, Weber State had scored 83 and 82 points, respectively. The Wildcats average 70 points a game. Idaho averages fewer than 65 points a game. The Vandals' scoring has been down recently, too. They are averaging just 55.2 points during their last four games. The Vandals also have lost and failed to cover in their last five games. I see a class difference that is greater than this point spread.
03-05-20	Illinois State v. Drake UNDER 135		65-75	Loss	-108	13 h 31 m	Show
The last time these two teams met was on Feb. 22. Illinois State won, 57-53, as 1 1/2-point home 'dogs. Now the teams are facing each other again, but it's in the first round of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament at a neutral site in St. Louis at a venue known for having a tough shooting backdrop. Drake is averaging just 52 points in its last three games. Illinois State has held its last three foes to an average of 60 points in regulation. This is a defensive-minded conference so I have to believe this one is going to be as low-scoring as the last matchup.
03-04-20	Dayton -3.5 v. Rhode Island		84-57	Win	100	13 h 7 m	Show
Don't overthink this game. Dayton has won 18 games in a row because the Flyers are the superior team. Led by Obi Toppin, the Flyers are leading the nation in shooting percentage at 52.6 percent. Toppin is averaging nearly 20 points a game while shooting an Atlantic-10 leading 63.2 percent from the floor. Rhode Island has yielded at least 72 points in four of its last five games, losing three of those matchups. The Rams aren't going to be able to stay with Dayton. That was the case in the first meeing, which Dayton won, 81-67, on Feb. 11. It will be the case here, too.
03-04-20	Florida State v. Notre Dame +2.5	Top	73-71	Win	100	13 h 4 m	Show
I like Notre Dame as a home 'dog in revenge. Florida State nipped the Irish, 85-84, as a 9-point home favorite on Jan. 25. The Seminoles may not be completely recovered from a last-second, 70-69, road loss at Clemson this past Saturday. The Irish need a victory to boost their NCAA Tourney chances. The had won three straight until an 84-73 road loss to Wake Forest on Saturday. Notre Dame has never lost to Florida State at Purcell Pavilion. The Irish give up the fewest turnovers per game and have a huge inside advantage thanks to John Mooney, who is tied with Tim Duncan for the single-season record of 15 double-doubles in ACC competition. This has been a 'dog series, too, with the favorite just 1-5 ATS the last six times.
03-03-20	Marquette -4 v. DePaul		68-69	Loss	-109	15 h 38 m	Show
In Markus Howard I trust. The senior guard leads the nation in scoring at 27.6 points a game. Marquette desperately needs this game being on the bubble for an NCAA Tourney bid. DePaul can't beat its fellow Big East teams. The Blue Demons are 2-14 in their last 16 conference games. The Golden Eagles have defeated DePaul during the past four meetings. This includes a 76-72 win at Marquette. DePaul shot 50 percent from the floor in that loss, while Marquette managed to hit only 40 percent of its field goals yet still win by four. Look for the Golden Eagles to shoot better this time around and to win by a more comfortable margin.
03-03-20	Arkansas-Little Rock +3.5 v. Georgia State		70-89	Loss	-107	14 h 47 m	Show
Georgia State is much better at home. Arkansas Little Rock already has clinched the Sun Belt Conference title. Yet this line is out of whack because Arkansas Little Rock still is a much superior team to the Panthers with a big inside edge. Little Rock has been playing with a chip on its shoulder the whole season after being picked to finish 11th in the conference. So the Trojans just aren't going to mail this one it. Georgia State has lost three in a row - all by at least eight points. That's dropped the Panthers to fifth place in the Sun Belt.
03-03-20	Cleveland State v. Oakland -7	Top	59-80	Win	100	14 h 9 m	Show
Oakland is home for this first-round Horizon League Conference Tournament matchup. The Golden Grizzlies are peaking winning five of their last six. Their scoring has increased since star guard Rashad Williams returned from injury 13 games ago. Oakland has scored 68 or more points in each of its last 10 games. Cleveland State averages 64.3 points and ranks 329th in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. The Vikings are terrible long-rang shooters, which impacts their ability to come from behind. While Oakland is on the upswing, Cleveland State enters the tournament having lost three of its past four. The Vikings are 0-2 to the Golden Grizzlies this season losing by an average of nine points.
03-02-20	North Carolina A&T -1 v. South Carolina State	Top	76-65	Win	100	15 h 4 m	Show
I have found one college basketball game I like on the Monday board and it comes from the small Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference. North Carolina AT&T opened the slightest of favorites against South Carolina State. The Aggies are not a good road team, but they still are superior to South Carolina State. The Aggies rolled past the Bulldogs, 78-63, in the first meeting a month ago despite missing 16 of 19 shots from 3-point range. The Aggies are tied for first in the conference with an 11-3 mark. They are 15-14 overall and have won eight of their last 10. South Carolina State is 11-16 overall and 6-9 in conference. The Aggies hold a huge backcourt edge with Kameron Langley and Ronald Jackson. They have helped the Aggies score 71 or more points in 14 of their last 15 games. I find this a very cheap price to get the much better team.
03-01-20	Florida International +5 v. Charlotte	Top	67-52	Win	100	5 h 9 m	Show
This should be a closely contested game as these two teams are nearly even in the Conference USA standings and playing for tournament seeding. Florida International outscores Charlotte by nearly eight points a game and forces the most turnovers in Conference USA. Turning the ball over is a weakness for Charlotte. The 49ers have scored fewer than 69 points in four of their last six games and are going to have problems scoring inside facing the Panthers' ace shot blocker Osasumwen Osaghae. I also like the Panthers having revenge motivation for a blowout loss suffered to the 49ers on Jan. 25.
02-29-20	Wyoming v. Fresno State OVER 127	Top	55-63	Loss	-105	13 h 47 m	Show
Both offenses have picked up since Fresno State won the first meeting, 65-50, on Jan. 18. The Bulldogs have scored 70 or more points in six of their last eight games. They also have given up 71 points or more in seven of their past 10 games. Wyoming has produced 68 or more points in four of its past five games. The Cowboys have picked up their pace averaging six more possessions per game during their last seven matchups.
02-29-20	Oakland +3.5 v. Illinois-Chicago		68-66	Win	100	9 h 25 m	Show
I see Oakland scoring enough points to produce an outright upset. The Golden Grizzlies have produced 70 or more points in eight of their last nine games. The lone exception was scoring 68 points in their last game. Illinois-Chicago averages fewer than 69 points a game. This has been a road team series with the visitor covering four of the last five times.
02-29-20	George Washington +12.5 v. VCU		51-75	Loss	-108	9 h 21 m	Show
Considering VCU is likely to be withou guard Marcus Evans for a second straight game and has been playing horrible, I see this line being vastly inflated. The Rams have lost and failed to cover in their last five games. Evans, the Rams' third-leading scorer and top assists guy, is dealing with a knee injury. It's hard to cover a large margin against George Washington because the Colonials play at a very slow tempo. The Colonials haven't lost by more than 12 points in 12 of their last 15 games.
02-28-20	Washington State +10 v. Washington		78-74	Win	100	16 h 60 m	Show
I'm hoping point guard Isaac Bonton will be able to play for Washington State. He's questionable with a hip injury. But the Cougars still have a tremendous all-around player in CJ Elleby. I don't believe Washington is this many points better than Washington State so I'm on the Cougars regardless of Bonton's status. Washington State defeated the Huskies, 79-67, on Feb. 9 behind Elleby's 34 points. The Huskies have been one of the worst ATS teams since Christmas failing to cover in 13 of their last 16 games. The talent gap between these two teams doesn't merit this high of a point spread in my view.
02-27-20	Arizona State +4 v. UCLA	Top	72-75	Win	100	16 h 18 m	Show
Arizona State romped past UCLA, 84-66, at home as six-point favorites three weeks ago. The Bruins have gone 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS since then. But Arizona State also has been playing well winning its past seven games. So I have to get involved taking these points. The Sun Devils can hold their own inside against the Bruins and have top-notch guards in Remy Martin and Alonzo Verge Jr. They both average more than 20 points a game. Martin ranks second in the Pac-12 in scoring while also averaging four assists a game and 1.6 steals.
02-27-20	Texas-San Antonio +4 v. Florida Atlantic		71-80	Loss	-109	11 h 0 m	Show
Texas-San Antonio is the 23rd-highest scoring team in the nation. The Roadrunners average eight more points per game than Florida Atlantic. They have a big backcourt edge with Jhivvan Jackson and Keaton Wallace, who average a combined 47 points per game. The Roadrunners have scored 77 or more points in 10 of their last 13 games. I don't see Florida Atlantic producing enough points to cover let alone win the game. The Owls have not been playing well losing and failing to cover in four of their last five games.
02-27-20	Delaware +4 v. College of Charleston		71-80	Loss	-105	10 h 5 m	Show
Delaware has won eight of its last 10 games, while Collge of Charleston is at low ebb losing and failing to cover in its last four games. The Cougars are averaging just 58.5 points during these past four games. The Blue Hens, on the other hand, have produced 76 or more points in six of their last eight games.
02-26-20	New Mexico v. Air Force -2		58-60	Push	0	12 h 13 m	Show
New Mexico hasn't been the same since Carlton Bragg was booted off the team in mid-January. Bragg provided the Lobos an inside force being their best rebounder and top field goal percentage shooter. The Lobos' roster has been in flux since then. The results have showed that as New Mexico is 1-7 in its last eight games and has lost four in a row. The Lobos have yet to win on the road without Bragg going 0-7 SU, 1-6 ATS. This has been a home team series with the host covering 11 of the last 15 times. That's the way I see this matchup going, too, with Air Force winning. The Falcons are a far superior 3-point shooting team and won't lack motivation. Not only are the Falcons coming off an embarrassing 78-72 home loss to Wyoming in which they were favored by 8 1/2-points, but this is the final home game for five of their seniors.
02-26-20	Bradley -3 v. Illinois State	Top	74-71	Push	0	17 h 17 m	Show
Bradley buried Illinois State, 75-63, as 8 1/2-point favorites on Jan. 22. The Braves accomplished that despite not having their two top scorers, Elijah Childs and Darrell Brown. Both are back for the Braves. It was the fourth straight time Bradley has defeated Illinois State. Illinois State plays better at home and is the host team. However, the Braves are the superior team and the spot sets up well for them. Illinois State is off an upset home win against Drake in their Senior Day game. The Redbirds are fat and happy after that win. They also are locked into the No. 9 seed for the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament, which opens next week. Bradley still has a shot at being as high as a No. 2 seed. The Braves rank 27th in the nation in defensive field goal percentage. Illinois State ranks last in the MVC in assist-to-turnover ratio and is ninth in the conference in scoring at 65.8 points. So not only is Bradley much better, but the situation is ripe, too, for the Braves. Considering this, I believe this line is way too short as I expect the Braves to win by double-digits again.
02-25-20	Ole Miss +8.5 v. Auburn		58-67	Loss	-109	14 h 56 m	Show
These teams met in late January and Auburn nipped Mississippi, 83-82, in double overtime. A takeaway from that game is that Rebels star senior guard Breein Tyree scored only six points. Tyree leads the SEC in scoring at 20.6 points. He has been hot during his last six games making 56 of 107 shots from the floor for 52.3 percent. The Rebels have scored 68 or more points in five of their last six games sparked by Tyree. I expect Tyree to play much better this time around against Auburn and for the Rebels to get the cover. Auburn is just 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games. The Tigers had to rally from 17 points down in the second half to beat Tennessee, 73-66, this past Saturday covering as six-point home favorites. The Tigers managed to eke out a cover by making two free throws with eight seconds left. If Auburn didn't cover in that matchup it would have the Tigers' fifth straight non-cover.
02-24-20	Oklahoma State +15.5 v. Kansas		58-83	Loss	-110	17 h 34 m	Show
The combination of Oklahoma State playing well and Kansas in a letdown spot after knocking off top-ranked Baylor, 64-61, on Saturday puts me on the Cowboys. Oklahoma State has looked sharp especially this past Saturday when the Cowboys rolled past Oklahoma, 83-66. Better backcourt production has been instrumental for the Cowboys and can help them hang in against the Jayhawks at this large point spread. The Cowboys have scored 70 or more points in four of their last six games.
02-23-20	Wichita State +4 v. Cincinnati		64-67	Win	100	4 h 46 m	Show
Wichita State is back on track after getting embarrassed at Houston winning three in a row by an average of 17.3 points. The Shockers rank 37th defensively and have held their last three opponents - Central Florida, Tulane and South Florida - to 58 points or fewer. This is a big revenge spot for the Shockers and they now have their swagger and confidence restored. The Bearcats nipped Wichita State, 80-79, on Feb. 6 when Jarron Cumberland converted a three-point play with 3.5 seconds left. Cumberland is the Bearcats' best player, but is in a shooting slump making just 12 of 45 shots during his last four games. Cincinnati has been winning, but not covering margins. The Bearcats are 1-5 ATS in their last six games. They've played four straight overtime games so they could have tired legs. Sunday Free Play Wisconsin minus 4 1/2 hosting Rutgers Wisconsin is another one of those Big Ten teams that is much better at home. The timing works here to back the Badgers. Rutgers is at low ebb. The Scarlet Knights are 2-4 this month. They also are a bit shell shocked having just lost for the first time in 18 games at home falling to Michigan, 60-52, this past Wednesday. Rutgers shot just 34.9 percent from the floor in that loss. The Badgers have held opponents below 40 percent from the field in five of their last six games. Wisconsin is 12-1 at home this season. Rutgers has lost its past five road/neutral court games. Like the Badgers, the Scarlet Knights are a far better home team. Wisconsin has revenge motivation, too. Rutgers defeated the Badgers, 72-65, in Piscataway on Dec. 11. The Scarlet Knights took advantage of the Badgers not having Micah Potter, their leading rebounder, to outrebound Wisconsin, 40-26. Rutgers has never swept a season series for Wisconsin. I don't see the Scarlet Knights putting a halt to that streak.
02-22-20	Fresno State v. Nevada -6.5	Top	76-78	Loss	-107	14 h 25 m	Show
Nevada-Reno should keep rolling. The Wolf Pack have won four in a row. Their scoring has taken off as the Wolf Pack have produced 86 or more points in six of their last eight games. The Wolf Pack own a strong home-court edge, too, winning 19 straight Mountain West home contests. They are 11-2 at home this season. Fresno State isn't playing nearly as well, isn't as good as Nevada and is a poor road team. The Bulldogs beat Air Force at home in their last game. However, they were 1-3 in their previous four games before that with the lone victory coming in overtime against a pathetic San Jose State squad. The Bulldogs are 4-9 on the road. They don't have the firepower to hang with the Wolf Pack, who are averaging 77.5 points and rank 12th in the nation in 3-point shooting.
02-22-20	Southern Utah v. Weber State +3		71-82	Win	100	13 h 55 m	Show
Weber State beat Southern Utah, 75-65, as an 8 1/2-point road 'dog on Jan. 30. Southern Utah has lost three in a row, all on the road going 1-2 ATS. Weber State has the best player on the court in guard Jerrick Harding, who is averaging 22.5 points. The Wildcats are the better long-range shooting team and are home. They should not be underdogs.
02-22-20	UAB +3.5 v. Florida Atlantic		58-65	Loss	-118	11 h 59 m	Show
Alabama-Birmingham holds foes to fewer than 65 points a game. Florida Atlantic is going to have trouble putting up points and holding its own on the glass against the Blazers. The Owls have lost and failed to cover in their last four games. They are averaging just 60.7 points during this span. Only once in their last nine games have the Owls scored more than 69 points and that was against Marshall, which ranks 262nd defensively.
02-22-20	Georgia State v. Texas State UNDER 144		76-86	Loss	-109	9 h 57 m	Show
Georgia State has held three of its last four opponents under 70 points. The Panthers rank 32nd in the nation in defensive field goal percentage and are first in the Sun Belt Conference in that category. Texas State forces a lot of turnovers, which is a Georgia State weakness, and has been playing outstanding defense holding its last 12 opponents to fewer than 67 points. The Bobcats should approach this matchup with extra intensity as they lost, 81-69, to Georgia State in the first meeting. That was back on Dec. 21. Texas State is far better defensively now than it was back then.
02-22-20	Massachusetts -125 v. Fordham		57-49	Win	100	8 h 54 m	Show
UMass isn't a great scoring team, but till averages 12 more points per game than Fordham. The Rams are one of the worst scoring teams in the nation averaging 57.1 points. They haven't reached 60 points in their last eight games. Fordham is averaging 52.2 points in its past five games. The Rams are 1-12 in their last 13 games.
02-21-20	Green Bay v. Detroit UNDER 166.5		84-67	Win	100	11 h 54 m	Show
This is the largest total of the season for Detroit and I don't see it. If you discount an 86-point performance versus Wright State, the Titans are averaging 67.4 points in their last five games. The Titans have been playing better defense, too, giving up 77 or fewer points in five of their last seven games. Green Bay can be erratic with its scoring. Just two games ago, the Phoenix scored only 58 points on the road against Illinois-Chicago. There were 163 points scored in the first meeting with Green Bay nipping Detroit, 83-80, on Jan. 18. The teams combined to make 34 of 42 free throws for 81 percent. Both are excellent shooting free throw shooting teams, but not that good.
02-20-20	Murray State -4 v. Eastern Illinois	Top	60-63	Loss	-110	14 h 47 m	Show
Eastern Illinois had won four in a row when it played on the road against Murray State on Jan. 30. Murray State beat the Panthers for the fifth straight time, 73-70. Since that loss, Eastern Illinois has gone 1-4 SU and ATS. The Panthers are not playing well like they were at the end of last month. Murray State is 13-2 in its last 15 games. The Racers are tied with Austin Peay on top of the Ohio Valley Conference. They are clearly better than Eastern Illinois, which is 5-9 in conference and has a losing overall record. The Panthers have failed to cover in their last four home games. The superiority of Murray State is illustrated by the KenPom ratings, which have the Racers ranked 153rd in offensive efficiency and 141st in defensive efficiency compared to Eastern Illinois, which is rated 242nd in offensive efficiency and 249th in defensive efficiency.
02-19-20	California v. Washington State -5.5		66-57	Loss	-105	17 h 0 m	Show
Washington State is a mediocre Pac-12 team. But that's good enough to cover this margin at home against California, which is 0-10 on the road. The Golden Bears have lost four in a row and lack the size and talent to take advantage of Washington State inside. The Cougars are 11-3 at home, including going 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six home games. They have been up-and-down but own victories against UCLA, Arizona State, Washington, Oregon and Oregon State. I like the Cougars to cover this spread even if guard Issac Bonton has to miss a second straight game with a leg injury. He missed the Cougars' last game this past Saturday. Washington State lost 70-51 to USC in that matchup. That game, though, was at USC and Bonton's freshmen replacements will be better prepared if called upon. The Cougars still have CJ Elleby, who is averaging 18.7 points and 7.5 rebounds, to give them the best player on the court.
02-19-20	Valparaiso v. Drake -4	Top	75-77	Loss	-102	15 h 21 m	Show
Drake has a size advantage with 7-footer Liam Robinson and is a very strong 13-1 at home. Valparaiso is just 4-8 on the road. The Crusaders, however, nipped Illinois State, 65-62, on the road in their last game this past Saturday for their second straight victory. Valparaiso hasn't won three Missouri Valley Conference games in a row all season. The Crusaders are averaging 59.7 points in their last four games. Drake has scored a minium of 71 points in six of its last eight games.
02-18-20	Nevada -1.5 v. New Mexico	Top	88-74	Win	100	17 h 7 m	Show
If you toss out a 73-64 road loss to Boise State, Nevada is averaging 89.6 points during its last six games. New Mexico has surrendered 78 or more points in eight of its last 10 games and five of its past six games. The Wolfpack have a backcourt edge with Jalen Harris and Jazz Johnson. Nevada forces a lot of turnovers and New Mexico commits a lot of turnovers. New Mexico lost its low post edge when double/double machine Carlton Bragg was dismissed from the team in mid-January. The Lobos didn't have Bragg when they were slaughtered by Nevada, 96-74, in Reno on Jan. 25. The Wolfpack are ascending while the Lobos are going downhill. New Mexico is 1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS in its last six games. The Wolfpack have won three in a row while covering seven of their last eight.
02-17-20	Iowa State v. Kansas -16	Top	71-91	Win	100	17 h 3 m	Show
Iowa State is real down this season. Poor play on the road and the loss of star guard Tyrese Haliburton for the season are factors the Cyclonces can't overcome. The Cyclones are 0-8 SU, 2-6 ATS in true road games. In their last two road games, they lost by 29 at Oklahoma and by 15 at West Virginia. By comparison, Kansas just trounced Oklahoma by 17 points at home this past Saturday and two games ago defeated West Virginia on the road by nine points. That's a good current comparison showing the difference between Iowa State and Kansas and why I feel confident laying this many points with the Jayhawks. Kansas destroyed Iowa State, 79-53, on the road in the first meeting between the teams, too. The Jayhawks are 10-0 SU, 7-3 ATS since losing to Baylor. They trail the Bears by one game for first place in the Big 12 with six games left to play. So I'm not expecting a letup from Kansas especially after Iowa State beat Kansas in the Big 12 Conference Tournament last season. If there's a letdown it probably would come from Iowa State as the Cyclones are coming off an 81-52 home win against Texas from Saturday.
02-16-20	Utah +12.5 v. Oregon		62-80	Loss	-109	13 h 34 m	Show
Utah can bother Oregon enough with its slow, grind-down style to get the cover. The Ducks are coming off a huge 68-60 home victory against then 15th-ranked Colorado from this past Thursday to pull even with the Buffaloes in the loss column on top of the Pac-12 standings. I don't believe Oregon will have the super motivation it had against Colorado since this is a less important matchup. The Ducks can't be blamed for taking the Utes a bit lightly after Utah lost, 71-51, at Oregon State on Thursday. That was a season low in points for the Utes. The Ducks haven't been covering big spreads. Just once in their last 10 games have they won by more than nine points. Utah hung tough at home in the first meeting against the Ducks this season, losing 69-64 on Jan. 4.
02-16-20	Memphis +4 v. Connecticut	Top	61-64	Win	100	12 h 56 m	Show
I'm often attracted to the better team receiving points. That's the case here. Memphis is 17-7 and defeated Connecticut, 70-63, at home on Feb. 1. It was the Tigers' fourth straight victory against the Huskies. Despite their excellent record, Memphis has had a number of close losses. The Tigers have lost to Georgia, SMU and South Florida by a combined nine points. They just lost in overtime at Cincinnati in their last game this past Thursday. The Tigers blew a 10-point lead with six minutes left against the Bearcats. The Huskies are 13-11, but are not playing well losing eight of their last 12. The Huskies are going to have problems controlling Memphis' Precious Achiuwa inside.
02-15-20	Chicago State v. Grand Canyon UNDER 143.5		47-71	Win	100	13 h 32 m	Show
Chicago State is one of the worst offensive teams in the country ranking 338th averaging 62.4 points. Only once in its last six games has Chicago State scored more than 54 points. The Cougars have played seven straight Under games. Grand Canyon averages 70 points a game. Chicago State's defense has improved slightly giving up an average of 69.7 points the past four games. This doesn't shape up to be a close game so Grand Canyon's reserves should be seeing more playing time.
02-15-20	George Washington +7 v. George Mason		73-67	Win	100	8 h 57 m	Show
George Washington defeated George Mason, 73-67, as three-point home 'dogs during the first meeting. I see the Colonials holding their own inside, which is a key. Neither team is strong offensively so this is too many points. George Mason hasn't broken the 67-point barrier in four of its last five games. The Patriots still could be on Cloud Nine after upsetting VCU, 72-67, as 14-point road 'dogs this past Wednesday. Previous to that game, though, the Patriots had dropped four in a row. They are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games.
02-15-20	Louisville -6 v. Clemson		62-77	Loss	-103	8 h 45 m	Show
Louisville buried Clemson, 80-62, as 9 1/2-point home favorites on Jan. 25. The Cardinals went on a 20-0 run at one point during the game. Now we have the rematch. There is little chance Louisville comes out flat, or lets up against Clemson. Not after the Cardinals had their 10-game win streak snapped on the road by Georgia Tech this past Wednesday. That loss opened things up for Duke and Florida State in the ACC. Clemson is a mediocre 12-12, 6-8 in the ACC. The Tigers are coming off an impressive 72-52 win at Pittsburgh this past Wednesday. Clemson had lost its three previous games, though. The Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. They've gone eight games without putting together a two-game win streak. The Tigers are not in Louisville's class and they draw the Cardinals in a fired-up, angry mood.
02-15-20	West Virginia v. Baylor -5	Top	59-70	Win	100	9 h 49 m	Show
I don't see Baylor's 21-game win streak ending at home to West Virginia. The Bears have too much guard depth for the Mountaineer and flexibility with the ability to win playing either slow or fast. West Virginia has scored just 49 and 59 points during its last two games shooting under 32 percent in each. The Bears have held nine of their last 13 opponents to 57 points or fewer. The Mountaineers have lost and failed to cover in each of their last three road contests losing by 10 points to Oklahoma, by eight to Texas Tech and by 16 to Kansas State.
02-14-20	Illinois-Chicago +11 v. Wright State	Top	58-75	Loss	-107	8 h 8 m	Show
Wright State is on top of the Horizon League standings at 11-2, while Illinois-Chicago is 7-6. But that doesn't mean Wright State is strong as a favorite. In fact, the Raiders are most decidedly not going 4-11-1 ATS as favorites of five points or more. Illinois-Chicago is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight games. The Flames are road tested, too, winning four of their past six away games with the two losses coming by a combined three points. This has been a 'dog series with the underdog covering four of the last five times. That has meant Illinois-Chicago. The Flames have won and covered the past three times versus Wright State, including 76-72 at home this season as six-point 'dogs.
02-14-20	Fairfield +3 v. Marist	Top	57-53	Win	100	17 h 54 m	Show
I have found an underdog spot I like between two lower tier teams from the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. Fairfield and Marist are two of the lowest-scoring teams in the nation. Fairfield averages 59.7 points. Marist averages 60.7 points. Fairfield has the better defense ranking 45th in the nation in scoring defense. The Stags have gone 7-5 in their last 12 games. They have proven themselves away from home with a neutral floor victory against Texas A&M and road win against Oakland. Marist is 6-15 on the season. The Red Foxes have been favored just twice this season, both times back in November. They lost both of those games straight-up.
02-13-20	Arizona v. California +10	Top	68-52	Loss	-109	16 h 59 m	Show
Arizona is highly talented. The Wildcats also are widely inconsistent and don't play that well on the road where they have failed to cover 10 of the past 14 times. California is a bad road team, but 10-3 at Haas Pavilion. The Golden Bears have covered five in a row at home and own Pac-12 home victories against Washington, Stanford and Oregon State. Point guard Paris Austin has stepped up his play recently for the Bears, who also have been clamping down defensively holding their last six foes to an average of 62.5 points a game. The Wildcats are coming off their worst shooting game of the season, a 65-52 home loss to UCLA this past Saturday. Cal's slow play can frustrate the Wildcats.
02-12-20	Cal-Irvine -4 v. Cal-Riverside	Top	63-59	Push	0	20 h 38 m	Show
Cal Irvine is the best team in the Big West Conference. The Anteaters have covered 68 percent of the time during the past 26 instances they have been favored. I want them going for me in this short point spread range off a loss and against a mediocre UC Riverside squad, who has just one player averaging in double figures. That's Arinze Chidom and he's scores 11.1 points a game. The Anteaters had a four-game win streak snapped by UC Santa Barbara this past Saturday. The Highlanders have lost five of their last seven games. They are 3-8 ATS the past 11 times when taking on an above .500 opponent. They also have failed to cover four of the past five times as a home 'dog. Cal Irvine beat the Highlanders by 16 points when the teams met earlier this season.
02-12-20	Furman v. Samford OVER 151.5		86-71	Win	100	14 h 34 m	Show
These teams met on Jan. 22 and Furman won, 101-78, despite shooting just 13 free throws. The Paladins putting up 101 points shouldn't have been that shocking. They average 78 points, have the 13th-best shooting percentage in the country and Samford is a horrendous defense team giving up more than 80 points per game. I don't see much difference in this rematch. The Paladins have scored 78 or more points in four of their last five games. The Bulldogs score at a 74-point per game clip. Their terrible defense has surrendered at least 78 points in eight of their last nine games. During this span, Samford has permitted 88 or more points six times.
02-11-20	Northern Illinois +8 v. Ball State	Top	59-63	Win	100	11 h 19 m	Show
Points really matter here as this figures to be a grind-out type of matchup as evidenced by the total. Northern Illinois has won five in a row. The Huskies have held their past five opponents to an average of 56.2 points a game. Ball State is an inconsistent shooting team and not as good from the foul line as Northern Illinois. The Cardinals have allowed 67 or more points in three of their last five games and are 6-14 ATS the past 20 times when going against foes with a winning record. The Huskies are 9-2 ATS, by contrast, when playing an above .500 opponent. They also have covered in their last five road contests. This has been an underdog series with the 'dog going 5-0-1 ATS in the past six meetings.
02-10-20	Baylor -6 v. Texas	Top	52-45	Win	100	20 h 42 m	Show
Probably some team is going to end top-ranked Baylor's win streak, which sits at 20 in a row. But I highly doubt Texas is going to be that team. The Longhorns don't have it this season. They just blew a 31-19 halftime lead at home to Texas Tech on Saturday losing, 62-57. Texas also lost a pair of starters to injuries in that game, Kai Jones and Jase Febres. Neither is expected to play today. Both are guards. Jones is Texas' second-leading scorer although none of its players average more than 13 points a game. Baylor is 7-0 in true road games. The Bears also rolled past the Longhorns, 59-44, at home on Jan. 4. Baylor whipped Texas by 15 points in that game despite being outshot from the floor and making just 5-of-15 free throws. It was the eighth time in the last nine meetings Baylor has beaten Texas.
02-09-20	Ohio State v. Wisconsin -1.5	Top	57-70	Win	100	10 h 46 m	Show
Wisconsin is very strong at home as evidenced by its 10-1 mark in Madison. The Badgers do their best at home against strong opponents. I'm expecting a focused, strong effort from the Badgers after they suffered an embarrassing, 70-52, road loss to Minnesota this past Wednesday after knocking off Michigan State at home in their previous game. The Badgers shot a season-low 28.4 percent from the floor against the Gophers. The Badgers shot just 38 percent from the field in the first meeting this season against Ohio State. Wisconsin missed 17 of 23 shots from 3-point range in that game yet still won, 61-57, on the road despite being outshot. Ohio State is coming off a 61-58 road win against Michigan this past Tuesday. I don't see the Buckeyes pulling off consecutive away victories against the Wolverines and Badgers.
02-08-20	Gonzaga -6 v. St. Mary's	Top	90-60	Win	100	18 h 41 m	Show
Gonzaga is the class of the West Coast Conference and I expect the Bulldogs to get the job done against the Gaels. Saint Mary's is just 6-13 ATS in its last 19 home games. The Gaels also have been a poor underdog going 4-12 ATS the past 16 times in that role. Gonzaga should be a lot sharper than it was when it beat Loyola Marymount this past Thursday, 85-67. The Bulldogs missed 14 of 15 shots from 3-point range in that victory. That was a fluke, though, as the Bulldogs were leading the nation in 3-point shooting previous to that. The Gaels don't have the firepower and scoring depth Gonzaga does. The Bulldogs were averaging 12 more points per game than St. Mary's, leading the nation in scoring and ranking No. 2 in field goal percentage. The Bulldogs haven't forgotten losing to Saint Mary's in the WCC tourney last season. They have owned the Gaels beating them 15 of the past 19 times.
02-08-20	North Texas v. UAB OVER 126.5		71-64	Win	100	9 h 9 m	Show
North Texas is averaging 78.8 points in its last five games. The Mean Green lead Conference USA in offensive efficiency. They are taking on an Alabama-Birmingham team that just allowed 86 points to Rice. UAB, though, can take advantage of this home scheduling spot to catch a North Texas defense that isn't in good form allowing an average of 77 points in its past two games.
02-08-20	UT-Rio Grande Valley -14.5 v. Chicago State		75-64	Loss	-109	10 h 10 m	Show
Chicago State is a joke. And I'm going to get in line to fade the Cougars as this line probably is going to keep growing. The Cougars have lost 14 in a row. They have been blown out by 14 or more points during each of their last 13 games. Their average losing margin is 22.5 points during their last four games. They have failed to cover in eight of their last 11 home games. Texas Rio Grande Valley is coming off two impressive victories. The Vaqueros have covered six of their last eight.
02-07-20	Harvard +6 v. Yale		78-77	Win	100	4 h 46 m	Show
You would have to go back 11 games to find the last time Harvard lost by more than three points. The Crimson have covered each time they were an underdog this season. Going back the last few years, they are 24-7-1 ATS the last 32 times when taking points. This has been a road series, too, with the visitor covering 13 of the last 17 times.
02-06-20	Loyola Marymount +25 v. Gonzaga		67-85	Win	100	10 h 55 m	Show
Gonzaga is coming off an extremely tough road game against San Francisco this past Saturday. The Bulldogs had to rally for an 83-79 win. The Bulldogs meet rival St. Mary's in a key road game Saturday. Before that game, though, is this total mismatch against Loyola Marymont. It's a West Coast Conference sandwich spot for Gonzaga so I'm going to take the generous amount of points with the underdog Lions, who have covered three of their last five games and nearly upset Pepperdine in their last game, losing 68-67 in overtime this past Saturday.
02-05-20	Bradley v. Drake	Top	60-73	Win	100	18 h 26 m	Show
Bradley beat Drake, 80-72, at home to begin Missouri Valley Conference play. Now Drake gets its revenge. The Bulldogs are much stronger at home - 11-1 - and the Braves are much weaker on the road. Bradley averages fewer than 64 points on the road. Drake holds road foes to 64.6 points at home, while averaging 76.2 points when playing in Des Moines.

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