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NCAA Basketball Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
03-22-18	Loyola-Chicago v. Nevada -113	Top	69-68	Loss	-113	13 h 55 m	Show
It's a minor miracle that either of these two teams are still in the NCAA Tournament. Both are legitimate, but fortunate. Nevada, though, is better and the matchup favors the Wolfpack. The Wolfpack are more athletic, have more length across the board and a far more explosive offense. They also are more battle tested as this was a down year in the Missouri Valley Conference and have the better coach with Eric Musselman. Nevada averaged 83 points. That ranked 16th-best in the country and is more than 11 points more per game than Loyola. But a key here is the Wolfpack averaged just 9.6 turnovers per game, which was the fourth-lowest in the country. So Nevada isn't sloppy. Another key is 3-point shooting. Both teams ranked tied for 20th in 3-point shooting percentage. It's a key part of their arsenals. However, Nevada defends the 3-pointer better than the Ramblers ranking 19th in 3-point percentage defense. The Wolfpack have displayed tremendous reslilence in the tournament coming back from a 14-point, second-half deficit to nail an overtime win against Texas and then emerging from 22 points down to stun No. 2 seed Cincinnati. Not to take anything away from the Ramblers, but they faced a pair of very young teams in the tournament, Tennessee and Miami. The Ramblers got past both of these opponents by hitting buzzer-beaters. Nevada is a much more veteran team with five of its top six players either a junior or senior. This is the Wolfpack's easiest game yet in the tournament. The price is right to get involved backing them.
03-21-18	Utah v. St. Mary's -6	Top	67-58	Loss	-106	19 h 46 m	Show
So much for the Pac-12. All the teams from that conference are gone now except Utah. That should tell you something about the strength of the Pac-12 and after tonight I don't see any Pac-12 team standing. Saint Mary's should have made the NCAA Tournament. The Gaels are 18-1 at home this season with the lone loss coming to Gonzaga. The question with Saint Mary's isn't talent, but motivation. The Gaels have three key seniors. It's obvious now that the Gaels are out to prove the NCAA Tournament committee wrong by winning the NIT. They buried Southeast Louisiana, 89-45, in their NIT opener. The Gaels got their lackluster performance out of the way in getting past Washington, 85-81, two nights ago. I expect the Gaels to be sharper against Utah, another Pac-12 team. Saint Mary's has covered 12 of the last 17 times when playing a Pac-12 foe. Utah lives and die with its perimeter shooting especially from 3-point range. Saint Mary's ranks 14th in the country in scoring defense and 22nd in 3-point percentage defense. Utah is hurt by a rule change in the NIT that stretches the distance to score on a 3-point shot. The Gaels, led by center Jock Landale, are the most accurate shooting team in the nation. I don't see the Utes being able to stay with them.
03-19-18	Washington v. St. Mary's UNDER 144.5		81-85	Loss	-107	17 h 22 m	Show
Not only does Saint Mary's rank 12th defensively in the nation, but they play one of the slowest paces in the country being very deliberate offensively. That combination has been instrumental in the Gaels going Under in 68 percent of their last 51 games. Washington has a strong zone defense imported from Syracuse by its coach, Mike Hopkins. Opponents who haven't seen the Huskies can have problems with this zone defense. The Huskies have gone Under in 20 of their last 26 away matchups. They have the top defensive player in the Pac-12 in Matisse Thybulle.
03-19-18	Washington +11 v. St. Mary's		81-85	Win	100	17 h 21 m	Show
Saint Mary's definitely deserved to make the NCAA Tournament. But the Gaels aren't a great team. They are down from past seasons. The Gaels played a very weak non-conference schedule, barely beat Pepperdine in the first round of the West Coast Conference Tournament and then were blown out in the semifinals by BYU. They are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games. Washington can match up to the Gaels being the more athletic team and having strong guard play headed by Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year Matisse Thybulle. The Huskies are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 road games. Part of why this line is so high is Saint Mary's being 17-1 at home this season. But the Gaels are not invincible at home. Gonzaga proved that with a 78-65 victory at Saint Mary's on Feb. 10. Saint Mary's also lost 84-79 to Washington State back on Nov. 24. Washington played Washington State twice and beat the Cougars twice by a combined 23 points.
03-18-18	Marshall v. West Virginia -12.5	Top	71-94	Win	100	18 h 36 m	Show
Great job by Marshall upsetting Wichita State on Friday. That was the Thundering Herd's first NCAA Tournament victory. They are not going to get their second tournament win here, though. Not only are the Thundering Herd in a tough spot to get ready for this matchup following such a great win, but they have serious matchup problems against West Virginia. The Mountaineers hold huge edges athletically and in style of play with their pressure defense and strong senior backcourt of Jevon Carter and Daxter Miles. Unlike Marshall, West Virginia is tournament tested, too, having reached the Sweet 16 last March where they nearly took out Gonzaga. Not only can Carter, who was tremendous in the Mountaineers' first-round victory against Murray State and its star, Jonathan Stark, slow down Marshall's top scoring threat, Jon Elmore, but Sagaba Konate gives West Virginia a strong inside defensive presence. The Mountaineers finished sixth in the nation in shot block percentage. West Virginia is at its best against non-conference opponents not familar with the Mountaineers' full-court, all-out pressing. The Big 12 was tough again this season and its coaches know West Virginia. The conference also had exception guard play. West Virginia is stepping way down here. I see a kill spot here.
03-18-18	Maryland-Baltimore County v. Kansas State -10		43-50	Loss	-113	15 h 53 m	Show
I'm still marveling at Maryland-Baltimore County's stunning upset of Virginia from two days ago. The Retrievers broke an 0-for-135 record of 16th seeds versus No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament by defeating the Cavaliers, 74-54. This is arguably the biggest upset in NCAA Tourney history. There is no way the Retrievers can come down from the heavens in such a short period to play a second consecutive perfect game to stay within single digits of emerging Kansas State. Maryland-Baltimore County was a 10-point underdog to Vermont in the championship game of the American East Conference Tournament. The Retrievers hit a long 3-point shot to pull out that win after losing to Vermont twice during the regular season by an average of 21.5 points. This is a team that was buried, 83-39, by Albany. The Retrievers clearly aren't in the class of Kansas State, a solid Big 12 team. The Wildcats are strong defensively particularly with their perimeter defense. The Retrievers lack the inside scoring game to hurt the Wildcats. Kansas State was most impressive, too, in its first-round tournament game holding Creighton to a season low in points in a 69-59 victory. It's an added plus if Dean Wade is able to play for the Wildcats after missing the win against Creighton.
03-17-18	Seton Hall +4.5 v. Kansas	Top	79-83	Win	100	14 h 4 m	Show
Seton Hall has four excellent senior starters, including one of the top rebounders in the country in Angel Delgado, plus an excellent starting sophomore guard, Myles Powell. These group of seniors are playing in the NCAA Tournament for the third consecutive year. They earned their first Big Dance victory beating North Carolina State on Thursday to push their unbeaten point-streak to six in a row. They also got the moneky off their back in breaking through with an NCAA Tournament victory. This isn't a great Kansas team. The Jayhawks struggled against Ivy League team Penn before closing out the Quakers with a 14-6 run. That won't happen against tournament-tested Seton Hall. One of the Pirates' strong points is their offensive rebound. One of Kansas' weakness is giving up offensive rebounds where it ranked 280th in the country. The taller Priates can limit Kansas' rebounding and thus blunt the Jayhawks' desire to play up-tempo and their aggressive in-transition style.
03-17-18	Rhode Island v. Duke UNDER 149.5		62-87	Win	100	9 h 17 m	Show
I'm not sold on Rhode Island's perimeter game. I see the Rams struggling to hit their outside shots against Duke's tough zone defenses. The Blue Devils have held seven of their last nine opponents to fewer than 69 points. The Under has cashed during eight of these past nine Duke games. The Rams can't count on getting to the foul line either as Duke's ranks No. 2 in the nation in fewest fouls. Rhode Island is very solid defensively allowing 68.2 points per game and ranking 47th in 3-point defense. I can envision the Rams bothering the Blue Devils, who have been turnover-prone, with their fullcourt pressure defense. "Our program is built around defense and making our opponent uncomfortable," Rhode Island coach Dan Hurley was quoted as saying after the Rams held Oklahoma to 69 points during regulation in their opening round NCAA Tournament game. The Sooners were ranked fifth in the nation in scoring at 84.9.
03-16-18	New Mexico State +5 v. Clemson		68-79	Loss	-102	20 h 22 m	Show
This is one of those No. 5 seeds versus No. 12 seeds that has seen so many upsets occur in the first round. I see this game fitting that upset pattern. I like having an underdog that has a coaching edge, is a strong rebounding team and plays very good defense. New Mexico State has all that going. The Aggies finished in the top-five in the nation in defensive field goal percentage and rebounding margin. Chris Jans has done a tremendous job in his first season as New Mexico State's coach. The Lobos proved they can step up in class knocking off Miami, Davidson and Illinois during a tough non-conference slate. They lost by just five to USC, a team better than Clemson no matter what the NCAA Tournament committee thinks. Clemson should not be this high of a seed. The Tigers built up their record by winning 15 of 16 home games. Their offense has gone downhill since their second leading scorer and rebounder, Dante Graham, suffered a season-ending injury in January.
03-16-18	College of Charleston +9.5 v. Auburn	Top	58-62	Win	100	18 h 26 m	Show
Auburn couldn't get straighten out for the SEC Conference Tournament and I don't see the Tigers getting a much needed quick fix in this opening round NCAA Tournament game either. The Tigers are 2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS in their last six games. They were blasted by Alabama, 81-63, during the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament. It's clear now that Auburn way overachieved earlier in the season. This certainly is the wrong time to be playing your worst ball. The College of Charleston is just the opposite. The Cougars are riding tremendous mometum winning 14 of their last 15 games. Their lone defeat during this span occurred in overtime. It wouldn't shock me at all to see the Cougars win this game outright.
03-15-18	Montana v. Michigan -10	Top	47-61	Win	100	11 h 46 m	Show
Michigan's John Beilein is my favorite college basketball coach now that Bo Ryan has retired. His Wolverines have tournament experience and plenty of rest having been idle for 10 days following winning the Big 10 Conference Tournament. The Wolverines achieved that in grand style winning four games in four days culminated by victories against Michigan State and Purdue during the last two days. Michigan's averaging winning margin against those two powerhouses was 10 points. Montana certainly isn't in the class of Purdue and Michigan State. The Grizzlies play in Big Sky Conference. They last participated in the NCAA Tournament in 2013. The last time they won a game in the Big Dance was 2006. The Grizzlies are 3-11 the last 14 times they've played Big 10 teams and are 1-5 ATS during their past six neutral site games. Michigan, by contrast, is 15-5-1 ATS the past 21 times when meeting an above .500 opponent. The Wolverines enter tournament play riding a nine-game win streak. They have the ninth-best defense in the country, have held seven of their last eight opponents to fewer than 67 points, rank 25th in offensive rebounding and are No. 2 in turnover percentage. They are far, far superior to Montana. Given the situational elements, the Wolverines should have no problem winning by double-digits.
03-15-18	NC State v. Seton Hall -135		83-94	Win	100	14 h 48 m	Show
Kudos to Kevin Keatts for the remarkable job he did this season at North Carolina State. The Wolfpack really overachieved going from a sub .500 team of a year ago to making the Big Dance this season. But this is a bad matchup for the Wolfpack. Their lack of tournament experience, poor defensive field goal percentage and mediocre rebounding is going to cost them against Seton Hall in this first round Midwest Region game. When the point spread is short like this, I often like to play the money line laying a little higher juice for more protection. There should be good shopping in this regards with a lot of money line flucutation. Often a team goes through stages gradually improving until they are ripe to win a game or two in the NCAA Tournament. That's the case with Seton Hall. The Pirates are making their third straight appearance in the NCAA Tournament. They lost in their first-round game to powerhouse Gonzaga two years ago and lost in controversial fashion last season to Arkansas on a flagrant foul call late in the game when trailing by only one point. I believe the due factor kicks in for Seton Hall here. The Pirates have the experience - with four senior starters - and talent to beat this opponent. Those starting seniors - Khadeen Carrington, Angel Delgado, Desi Rodriguez and Ismael Sanogo - are the most successful recruiting group Seton Hall has had in a long time. Rodriguez is averaging nearly 18 points and five rebounds per game and Delgado is the Big East's career rebounding leader. The other starter, sophomnore guard Myles Powell, averages 15.4 points a game and was named the Big East's Most Improved Player. The Pirates enter the tournament having covered in their last five games. While North Carolina State did go 11-7 in the ACC, its non-conference schedule ranked just 343rd in the country as far as strenth of schedule. North Carolina State ranks 294th in defensive field goal percentage, allowing foes to hit 53.5 percent of their two-point shots, and is 307th in defensive rebounding percentage. Seton Hall can exploit this ranking among the top 30 in offensive rebounding percentage and rating 26th in terms of points per 100 possessions. The timing is ripe for these outstanding Seton Hall seniors to win an NCAA Tournament game. That time is now.
03-14-18	BYU v. Stanford -135		83-86	Win	100	8 h 41 m	Show
Stanford plays in the better conference and was tough down the stretch going 5-2. A victory against Arizona State 11 days ago was especially impressive. BYU hasn't been impressive on the road losing at Pacific, Loyola-Marymount and San Diego while going into overtime against Pepperdine. The Cardinal have covered in eight of their last nine home contests. Stanford has a balanced scoring attack paced by forward Reid Travis, one of the better players in the Pac-10. BYU ranks just 231st in defensive field goal percentage allowing opponents to hit nearly 45 percent of their field goals.
03-13-18	North Carolina-Asheville +18 v. USC		98-103	Win	100	15 h 13 m	Show
USC can destroy this team if it wants. But I don't see the Trojans having the motivation after failing to make the NCAA Touranment. The Trojans were royally ripped-off in not making the tournament. This is their first NIT bid since 1999 - and they certainly aren't excited about it. Their home court edge isn't going to amount to that much either because it's spring break on the USC campus. UNC Asheville have experienced guards, which is a key in tournament action especially when on the road. The Bulldogs are excited about taking on the Trojans. They have covered in seven of their last 10 matchups versus opponents who have a winning percentage above .600.
03-13-18	Southeastern Louisiana v. St. Mary's UNDER 142		45-89	Win	100	14 h 7 m	Show
St. Mary's is ranked 15th in fewest points allowed per game. SE Louisiana is going to have problems denting the Gaels' defense. The under has cashed 14 of the last 17 times in St. Mary's home games. What also helps the Under here is that neither team plays at a fast pace. St. Mary's, in fact, is one of the slowest tempo teams in the nation.
03-13-18	Hampton +22.5 v. Notre Dame	Top	63-84	Win	100	14 h 3 m	Show
It's spring break and snowing on the Notre Dame campus. So it's hard to imagine the Irish basketball players getting up for this first-round NIT matchup knowing they were the final school left out of the NCAA Tournament, a tournament they should have been selected to. This what Notre Dame coach Mike Brey was quoted as saying on Sunday when word came out that the Irish were not picked for the NCAA Tournament: "We've had all kinds of things happen and on the most important day, it was a heartbreaking day. It's a tough one to swallow." I can't see Notre Dame being motivated at all. But is Hampton good enough to hang around? I believe so especially given this huge spread. The Pirates were the best team in the MEAC this season. They have played in post-season tournaments the past four years, including the NCAA Tournament in 2015 and 2016. Hampton has won 10 of its last 11 games. The Pirates have a pair of very good guards in Jermaine Marrow and Malique Trent-Street. The Pirates ranked 55th in the nation in scoring at 79.3 points per game. Notre Dame, which has been inconsistent offensively, averages 75 points. The Pirates are a strong rebounding team - tied for 12th in the nation - and have depth with 11 players averaging at least 11 minutes per game. This is important if the spread comes into question late in the game when Notre Dame is playing its bench players. Hampon is road-tested having covered 12 of its last 16 away contests. The Pirates rank among the top 56 teams in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. So there are a lot of checkmarks as to why Hampton can hang with a disinterested Notre Dame team that isn't likely to have much of a crowd.
03-11-18	Davidson v. Rhode Island UNDER 140		58-57	Win	100	5 h 4 m	Show
These teams have a strong under bias when playing one another. The under has cashed in seven of the past nine meetings. I see that trend contiuning here. These teams have met twice this season and the combined total for both games was 127 1/2 points scored. Davidson is not the high scoring team of past seasons. The Wildcats are much more deliberate and slow paced. They figure to have problems making their long jumpers, too, as Rhode Island ranks first in the Atlantic 10 Conference in 3-point defense.
03-10-18	San Diego State -4 v. New Mexico	Top	82-75	Win	100	5 h 12 m	Show
San Diego State is on a huge roll and I'm going to get behind the Aztecs here. They are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games since suspended senior leader Malik Pope returned to the team. All together, the Aztecs have won eight in a row. They've covered the past six times against above .500 opponents. New Mexico is in a bad situational spot having had to play the late game last night. Now they have to play around 15 hours later with legs that figure to be tired. San Diego State should be the much fresher team since it played earlier and only had one of its starters go past the 29-minute mark. The Aztecs are a bad matchup, too, for New Mexico because they like to slow things down and don't turn the ball over. The Lobos thrive on comitting turnovers. That's not likely to happen here.
03-09-18	Oregon v. USC -140		54-74	Win	100	12 h 0 m	Show
I don't see Oregon having anything left in the tank. The Ducks are playing for the third day in a row. They won in overtime two days ago and were involved in a nail-biting two point victory against Utah last night. By contrast, USC has played only two games since Feb. 24. The Trojans will be the fresher team by far. The Trojans are in good form winning five of their last six games, including defeating Oregon during this span. They also beat the Ducks earlier this season. Oregon has matchup problems against 6-foot-11 inch center Chimezie Metu. The Trojans are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine neutral site games.
03-08-18	Oregon v. Utah +2.5		68-66	Win	100	12 h 50 m	Show
Utah beat Oregon at Oregon by 10 earlier this season. Now the Utes catch Oregon off an OT win against Washington State yesterday. So a big scheduling edg goes to Utah. The Utes had a first-round bye and are playing better than the Ducks. The Utes are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games. Utah has the necessary point guard in Justin Bibbins and big man David Collette can hurt Oregon inside. The Utes are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 Pac-12 games.
03-08-18	LSU v. Mississippi State UNDER 144.5		77-80	Loss	-110	12 h 33 m	Show
These two teams just met this past Saturday and LSU held Mississippi State to 58 points while scoring 78. Now the teams meet again being very familiar with one another and in a much critical game as this is the second round of the SEC Tournament. The Tigers shot 51.9 percent from the field and hit 47.8 percent of their 3-point shots. I don't see a repeat of that here. Mississippi State ranks among the top 60 teams in the nation in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage. Note the neutral site, Scottrade Center in St. Louis, being the venue. That's a plus for the Under. This is a big arena where the St. Louis Blues play their home hockey games and is known as an Under arena for basketball teams. The SEC Tournament has never been held there until this year. So it's unfamilar to both teams.
03-08-18	SMU v. Connecticut +2		80-73	Loss	-105	1 h 26 m	Show
SMU couldn't beat Connecticut when it had leading scorer Shake Milton and I don't see it beating the Huskies without him. SMU is 1-8 since Milton suffered a broken hand. The Mustangs are 2-6-1 ATS during this time frame. The Mustangs haven't broken 56 points during three of their last five games.
03-07-18	Notre Dame -125 v. Virginia Tech		71-65	Win	100	3 h 44 m	Show
Look for Notre Dame to play much better than it did against Pittsburgh yesterday. The Irish are 4-0 ATS following a non-cover. The return of Bomzie Colson makes Notre Dame a much better team than this spread indicates. The Irish won't lack incentive either needing a victory here to boost their NCAA Tourney hopes. That's not the case with Virginia Tech, which likely is in regardless.
03-07-18	Louisville v. Florida State		82-74	Loss	-110	7 h 56 m	Show
Louisville needs to play great defense to beat Florida State. I don't see that happening. This has been a down season for the Cardinals on the court and a terrible one for them off the court. I The two teams split their two games this season. Louisville won the first meeting in Tallahassee, coming back from a 17-point deficit. Florida State won the remtch, 80-76, early last month. Since that time, the Seminoles have been getting major contributions from sophomore guard Trent Forrest and freshman center Ike Obiagu. Forrest is averaging 14.8 points, 5.2 rebounds and 4.6 assists during the last five games. Those two weren't major factors in the previous games between the teams. They give Florida State an added edge. Not only do the Cardinals have to deal with the pressure to win this game with their NCAA Tournament hopes likely hanging in the balance, but their defense slipped during February. They enter this matchup in bad form, too, losers of four of their last five games. Louisville also has failed to cover in its past four neutral site games.
03-05-18	BYU +5.5 v. St. Mary's		85-72	Win	100	11 h 58 m	Show
St. Mary's had to exert a lot of energy to get past stubborn 10th-seeded Pepperdine in Saturday's West Coast Conference tournament quarterfinals. The Gaels are going to need to play better to cover this number against BYU. This was the fifth time in their last six conference games that the Gaels have failed to cover the spread. This is the revenge game of the year for the Cougars, who lost 80-51 to St. Mary's in last year's semifinal WCC tournament game. I don't believe St. Mary's is playing well enough right now to cover this spread.
03-04-18	Michigan v. Purdue OVER 137		75-66	Win	100	4 h 30 m	Show
Michigan is playing its best basketball. The Wolverines have been extremely consistent scoring 72 or more points during each of their last eight games. During this span, Michigan is averaging 77.7 points per game. Purdue averages 81.6 points a game, which ranks the Boilermakers 35th in the nation in scoring. The Over has cashed in 22 of Purdue's last 28 neutral site games.
03-03-18	UC-Davis v. Cal-Irvine UNDER 132	Top	90-84	Loss	-115	18 h 10 m	Show
There were just 117 points scored when these teams last met back in January with UC Davis winning, 64-53. The Aggies had their leading scorer and rebounder, Chima Moneke, for that game. He scored 20 points in that game and averages 18.4 points on the season. However, Moneke is suspended and won't play here. At stake in this matchup is the Big West Conference title. So I expect the intensity and defensive pressure to be as strong as it has been all season. UC Davis ranks 64th defensively. Irvine is even better defensively ranking 42nd and and fourth in the nation in defensive field goal percentage. The Anteaters won't have to deal with Moneke either. Cal Irvine plays at a slow pace, too, which is an added plus for the Under. The Under has cashed in 17 of the Anteaters' last 22 games. This series has an Under history, too, with four of the last five going below the total. The Under has cashed six of the past seven times the teams have met at Irvine.
03-03-18	Nevada v. San Diego State -130		74-79	Win	100	10 h 1 m	Show
San Diego State is playing its best basketball. The Aztecs have won five in a row with the winning margin being nearly 16 points per game. The Aztecs have revenge for a loss to Nevada. The Wolf Pack lack the movitation of the Aztecs. They've already won the Mountain West Conference and achieved their Revenge Game of the Year this past Wednesday blitzing UNLV by 26 points. Another key for San Diego State is Malik Pope is back after missing a game.
03-03-18	Georgetown +19 v. Villanova		73-97	Loss	-105	6 h 44 m	Show
Villanova has no reason to play especially hard in this lopsided matchup, especially following consecutive overtime games in which their starters logged heavy minutes. The Wildcats don't have a lot of depth and must not burn out their starters with the Big East Tournament approaching. Georgetown usually can be counted on to play hard. The Hoyas have been at their best as Big East underdogs covering seven of eight times in that role with three straight-up victories. The Hoyas also have covered in their last four road games.
03-03-18	Kansas -2.5 v. Oklahoma State		64-82	Loss	-115	5 h 56 m	Show
Never mind that Kansas has already won the Big 12 Conference crown again. The Jayhawks have had this game circled ever since Oklahoma State upset them, 84-79, as 12-point road underdogs. Kansas is a solid money-maker on the road where it usually isn't that overpriced covering 10 of the last 14 times. Oklahoma State is just 3-10 ATS in its last 13 home contests.
03-02-18	Rhode Island +2 v. Davidson		61-63	Push	0	3 h 51 m	Show
I see Rhode Island atoning for an embarrassing 30-point home loss to St. Joe's in its last game. The Rams have defeated Davidson four straight times, including a 13-point winner at home in their last meeting. The Rams have won 18 of their last 20 games and have covered in 17 of their last 24 Atlantic 10 games.
03-02-18	Pennsylvania v. Yale +1		79-80	Win	100	8 h 7 m	Show
Penn is playing well. But so is Yale. The Bulldogs have won five of their last six. The Bulldogs also are in revenge mode for a 59-50 road loss to Penn in the previous meeting this season. Despite that earlier defeat, Yale has dominated this series from a point spread perspective going 8-3 ATS.
02-28-18	Nevada -3 v. UNLV	Top	101-75	Win	100	21 h 1 m	Show
Nevada is much the better team, has a far superior coach and this is the Wolf Pack's Revenge Game of the Year. UNLV handed Nevada its lone home loss of the season, winning 86-78 three weeks ago. That loss came in front of Nevada's eighth-largest crowd in Lawlor Events Center history. The Wolf Pack were missing their top scorer, Caleb Martin. He was out with a foot sprain. Nevada didn't play well, though. and the Rebels shot a blistering 50.8 percent from the floor. Credit to UNLV because it did play extremely well in that game. This is a bitter, bitter rivalry. UNLV, a classless program, did a lot of trash talking during and following that win. The Wolf Pack haven't forgotten. They've been pointing to this matchup ever since. Martin is back and will play. Reno hasn't been swept in a season series by the Rebels since 2012-13, which was its first year in the Mountain West Conference. UNLV has a size advantage on the Wolf Pack. But Nevada can take advantage of UNLV's weak transition defense. Nevada has won the Mountain West Conference title already, but the Wolf Pack will be focused and highly motivated for this game. Nevada coach Eric Musselman said he won't be resting anybody that his team will be going all out. Musselman is a far better coach than UNLV's Marvin Menzies. UNLV has lost and failed to cover its last three games, including losing to Fresno State, 77-64, as a two-point favorite during its last home game. The Rebels don't have the home attendance they used to have because of the decline in their program. They have covered only two of their last 10 home contests.
02-28-18	Ole Miss v. Kentucky -8.5		78-96	Win	100	6 h 4 m	Show
Kentucky has picked a good time to get back untrack. The Wildcats are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three games. During this span, they have posted double-digit victories against Alabama, Arkansas and Missouri. Mississippi, by constrast, is 1-8 SU and ATS in its last nine games. The Rebels are a horrible 1-9 in their lined road games, including 3-7 ATS. Kentucky also has covered five of the last six in this series.
02-28-18	Illinois v. Iowa		87-96	Loss	-106	8 h 17 m	Show
Iowa is a great fade now that it is tournament time. The Hawkeyes are 2-7 in the Big Ten Tournament under Fran McCaffrey. They have lost in the first round the past four seasons. The Hawkeyes enter tournament play losing six of their last seven games. They've allowed 80 or more points in seven of their last nine games and are giving up the most points per game since 1993-94. Illinois is coming off a 13-point road win against Rutgers and with strong revenge motivation after suffering a 104-97 home overtime loss to the Hawkeyes in their its last meeting. The Hawkeyes overcame a 20-point deficit to pull out that victory.
02-27-18	Oklahoma v. Baylor -3		64-87	Win	100	10 h 60 m	Show
Baylor is playing better since losing 98-96 to Oklahoma during the first meeting between the two teamsd. The Bears are 5-2 SU and ATS since that loss. Trae Young had a monster game for Oklahoma in the victory against Baylor scoring 44 points. Young, though, has tailed off perhaps worn down by the long season. I like Baylor in a revenge spot here. I don't see Young hurting the Bears like he did in the first meeting. The Sooners have failed to cover during their last eight road games.
02-26-18	Texas Tech v. West Virginia UNDER 141.5		74-84	Loss	-105	11 h 6 m	Show
The Under has won in 10 of Texas Techs last 13 road games. I see that trend continuing in this matchup, which shapes up to be a tight, intense defensive struggle. Only two teams have a better defensive efficiency rating than the Red Raiders. These are the top two teams in the Big 12 in defensive efficiency ratings, too. Neither team plays at a fast tempo either. So Under is the way to go.
02-25-18	Penn State v. Nebraska -117		64-76	Win	100	4 h 9 m	Show
Nebraska has been a monster money-maker this season. This has been especially so at home where the Cornhuskers have covered 10 of the past 11 times. All together, the Cornhuskers have covered an amazing 14 of their last 16 Big Ten games. Penn State has had a strong season, too, but I see signs of the Nittany Lions fading. They have lost in their last two games. Penn State also will be without forward Mike Watkins, who is out with a knee injury. Watkins leads the Nittany Lions in rebounding and is their third leading scorer.
02-24-18	Arizona v. Oregon -2		93-98	Win	100	19 h 48 m	Show
The Ducks received a huge boost in confidence beating 25th-ranked Arizona State on Thurday. But the major part of this handicap is a fade on Arizona, which is likely to be minus second-leading scorer Allonzo Trier, who was declared ineligible by the NCAA this week for testing positive for a banned substance. The Wildcats have a much bigger problem than this, though. There's the real possibility that their best player, Deandre Ayton, could be suspended along with head coach Sean Miller. The latest news is all about an FBI investigation into the Arizona program with Miller and Ayton at the center of the storm. This obviously is a huge distraction.
02-24-18	Massachusetts v. George Mason OVER 147		76-78	Win	100	7 h 30 m	Show
The Over has cashed in 68 percent of George Mason's last 63 home games. I'm going to ride that string. This should be a loosely played game featuring lots of scoring. UMass's defense has gone downhill. That's reflected in the Over cashing during UMass's last eight games. The Minutemen have surrendered 82 or more points in each of their last eight games.
02-23-18	Harvard +1.5 v. Princeton		72-66	Win	100	3 h 2 m	Show
Harvard is on an 8-3-1 against the spread run. The Crimson just rolled past Princeton by 15 points two weeks ago. Now look at the line. So I definitely believe there is value on the Crimson. Princeton has lost and failed to cover in its last six games. The Tigers have a losing ATS home record.
02-23-18	St. Peter's v. Quinnipiac -118		52-43	Loss	-118	9 h 24 m	Show
The Bobcats of Quinnipiac have covered in seven of their last nine games. I like them to beat St. Peter's at home. The Bobcats have strong revenge motivation for an 84-58 road loss to St. Peter's back early last month when they weren't playing as well. St. Peter's is a very weak road team going 2-10 SU, 3-9 ATS. The Peacocks have failed to cover in five of their last six road games.
02-21-18	San Diego State v. Air Force +8.5	Top	67-56	Loss	-105	20 h 53 m	Show
In terms of straight-up record, Air Force is a bottom-three Mountain West Conference team. Point spread-wise, though, the Falcons are very strong. They have covered in nine of their last 12 league games and are 7-1 ATS at home this season. This coincides with San Diego State being a bad road team. The Aztecs are a middle-of-the-pack Mountain West team that is strong at home, weak on the road where they are 1-6 in conference play. This includes losses during their past five away matchups. San Diego State enters this matchup fat and happy after burying UNLV, 94-56, at home this past Saturday. That was the Aztecs' most lopsided victory against the Rebels in the 69-game history of the series. Now the Aztecs draw ninth place Air Force and last place San Jose State. So this doesn't shape up as a challenging week for them. The Falcons are going to be the more motivated team. They have revenge for an embarrassing 81-50 road loss to San Diego State from 18 days ago. Air Force only was able to shoot nine free throws in that game. Air Force upset New Mexico, 100-92, in its last home contest. Air Force has been on the road its past two games losing to UNLV and Boise State. Now the Falcons are back home. They are 16-5-1 ATS following a loss. The Falcons have covered four of the last five times against San Diego State at home, including winning straight-up last season, 60-57, as 6 1/2-point home 'dogs. They are 9-2 (82%) ATS the past 11 times versus San Diego State.
02-20-18	Rutgers v. Ohio State UNDER 129		52-79	Loss	-110	15 h 1 m	Show
Rutgers is a premier defensive team giving up the 12th fewest points in the country. But the Scarlet Knights are horrendous on offense and going against Ohio State's top-50 defense. Rutgers has scored less than 58 points in regulation during seven of its last nine games. The Scarlet Knights were held to 46 points by Ohio State in the team's first meeting. The Buckeyes are in a kill spot following two straight road losses. So there's no reason for them to play fast if owning a big lead as expected. Ohio State has gone Under in 18 of its last 23 home games. So there is a strong Under pattern.
02-20-18	Illinois +16 v. Michigan State		61-81	Loss	-106	9 h 26 m	Show
Michigan State has covered just one of its last eight games. The Spartans could be distracted by Senior Night and still on Cloud Nine after rallying from 27 points down to beat Northwestern this past Saturday in the greatest comeback in Big Ten history. Illinois lost to Michigan State by 13 points in the first meeting despite the Spartans shooting a record 68.2 percent from the floor. The Illini have played better since that loss and should have their confidence up after snapping a four-game losing skid with a win against Nebraska on Saturday. Illinois is 5-1-1 ATS during its last seven visits to Michigan State, too.
02-19-18	Youngstown State v. Northern Kentucky -16.5		51-70	Win	100	14 h 18 m	Show
Northern Kentucky is coming off a loss. I see the Norse being fired up to bury a very bad Youngstown State. The Penguins are giving up more than 87 points per game during their last seven games. Northern Kentucky has the potent offense to take advantage averaging nearly 77 points a game. The teams met earlier at Youngstown State and Northern Kentucky won by double-digits. Now the Norse are home off a loss. They are 4-1 ATS following a loss.
02-19-18	Miami-FL v. Notre Dame UNDER 140	Top	77-74	Loss	-110	14 h 28 m	Show
Minus star guard Bruce Brown Jr., Miiami has averaged only 52.5 points during its last two games. The Hurricanes are going to have to be patient and hit their shots if they want to pull an upset because Notre Dame has committed the fewest fouls in the country and fewest fouls per game. Notre Dame, though, has its own key injury as Bonzie Colson remains out. Matt Ferrell has been playing great, but can't be expected to score a career-high 37 points like he did in Notre Dame's last game, a victory against Boston College. The Irish play at a slow tempo, which is good for the Under, and Miami has the fourth-ranked defense in the ACC giving up 66 points per game. The Hurricanes also rank in the top-30 in the country in 3-point defense.
02-18-18	Penn State v. Purdue -7.5		73-76	Loss	-105	12 h 5 m	Show
Purdue is in stop-the-pain mode having lost consecutive close games to Ohio State, Michigan State and Wisconson. The Boilermakers are better than Penn State, highly motivated and at home where they have won 14 of 15 times. Penn State last won at Mackey Arena in 2006, a string of 10 consecutive road losses. The Boilermakers rank seventh in the nation in 3-point accuracy at 41.9 percent yet they have made only 32.1 percent of their beyond the arc shots in their last three games. A correction is due. Penn State is just average in 3-point defense. The Nittany Lions are playing well, but a letdown could be in store following their 79-56 burial of Ohio State at home on Thursday. Purdue has dominated this series winning the past five times.
02-18-18	Nebraska -125 v. Illinois		66-72	Loss	-125	7 h 21 m	Show
I have to keep riding Nebraska, which has covered a mind-boggling 16 of its last 17 games, including its last eight games. Usually when the line is at minus 2 or less, I like to protect myself with a money line play. That's the case here especially with Nebraska winning the first meeting between these two teams by just one point. Tim Miles has done a masterful job with the Cornhuskers, who have won seven in a row and eight of their last nine. Illinois, by contrast, has lost four in a row. The Illini has allowed foes to shoot 55.5 percent from the floor during the last three games. The Illini haven't been scoring either averaging only 64 points during their last four games. Nebraska is averaging 80 points in its last five games.
02-17-18	Colorado v. Washington UNDER 142		59-82	Win	100	17 h 1 m	Show
Long-time Syracuse assistant coach Mike Hopkins has brought a tricky zone defense to Washington. So it's not a fluke the defensive-minded Huskies have gone Under the total in 10 of their last 12 games. I don't see any reason to not ride the Under in this game pitting the teams who rank first and second, respectively, in the Pac-12 in defensive efficiency. Colorado struggles on the road and with committing too many turnovers. Washington was held to 40 points three games ago by Oregon and scored only 58 points at home against Utah in its last game.
02-17-18	Loyola Marymount +10.5 v. San Francisco		63-72	Win	100	9 h 53 m	Show
This mainly is a fade on San Francisco. The Dons are coming off a huge upset home victory against St. Mary's two days ago. It's going to be hard for the Dons to get up for this matchup in such a short time span. The Dons are 2-7 ATS following a victory. San Francisco also has failed to cover the spread the past five times it has been more than a four-point favorite. The Lions have done well in this series covering four of the past five times.
02-15-18	Utah v. Washington UNDER 142		70-58	Win	100	15 h 9 m	Show
Not only is Mike Hopkins a great coach, but he's a great Under the total coach, too, as Washington has gone below the total in nine of its last 11 games. That's because the Huskies play a zone defense similar to what Syracuse runs and what Hopkins learned when he coached at Syracuse before coming to Washington. There is more, though, than just this Under trend. Both teams play at a slow pace and the Huskies are No. 1 in the Pac-12 in defending against 3-pointers, which is what Utah relies on.
02-15-18	Ohio State +1 v. Penn State		56-79	Loss	-106	8 h 40 m	Show
I like Ohio State in this revenge spot against Penn State. The Nittany Lions dealt Ohio State its only Big Ten loss in the first meeting with a buzzer-beating basket. Penn State missed only three of 14 shots from beyond the arch in that victory against the Buckeyes. I don't expect the Nittany Lions to shoot like that again. I'm not deterred from the Buckeyes being on the road either. They are perfect 6-0 straight-up and ATS in their Big Ten/neutral site matchups. Going back even more, Ohio State is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games versus Big Ten foes. Ohio State enters this matchup shooting better than 50 percent from the floor during its last five games.
02-15-18	NC-Greensboro v. The Citadel +10.5	Top	82-66	Loss	-106	13 h 37 m	Show
The Citadel has covered seven of its last nine games. The Bulldogs have posted upsets of Wofford and Furman and lost to East Tennessee State, the first place team in the Southern Conference, by just two points as a 15-point 'dog during their last three home games. Now The Citadel is another big home 'dog. This time to UNC Greensboro, which is in a dangerous situational spot. The Spartans just beat East Tennessee State at home on Monday in a huge game and has a more challenging road game against Mercer on Saturday. The Spartans have failed to cover in their last four games against the Bulldogs.
02-14-18	Kentucky +9.5 v. Auburn		66-76	Loss	-105	9 h 55 m	Show
The last time Kentucky was this big of an underdog the Wildcats beat West Virginia, 83-76, as a 10-1/2 point road 'dog on Jan. 27. The Wildcats have the athleticism and talent to upset Auburn straight-up here, too. Kentucky holds a big height advantage and shouldn't be lacking for motivation with this lack of respect betting line. The Wildcats have never dropped four in a row under John Calipari.
02-14-18	South Florida v. UCF OVER 123.5		57-72	Win	100	9 h 28 m	Show
Much has changed for Central Florida with Tacko Fall out. Since he's been injured the Over has cashed in five of the Knights' last six games. Fall may have been the premier defensive player in college basketball. So when I see a low total like this, I'm looking to go Over. South Florida had been a strong Over team on the road going above the total in 22 of its last 29 away contests. The Over also has won the past four times Central Florida has hosted South Florida.
02-13-18	LSU v. Alabama UNDER 148		65-80	Win	100	13 h 57 m	Show
Alabama is a great Under team at home going below the total in 73 percent of its last 60 home contests. The Crimson Tide are strong defensively again this season giving up 68.3 points a game, which ranks 74th in the nation. Alabama ranks No. 1 in the SEC, too, in points per possession defensively. LSU was held to 66 points at home by Alabama in the first meeting. The Tigers are averaging just 65 points during their last three road games.
02-13-18	LSU +7.5 v. Alabama		65-80	Loss	-105	13 h 47 m	Show
LSU is coming on winning two of its last three, including an impressive 82-66 victory against Mississippi this past Saturday. The Tigers have added incentive in this SEC matchup having lost by eight points at home to Alabama during the first meeting this season on Jan. 13. Alabama has been a money-burner in this type of spots going 4-12 ATS in its last 16 home games when opposing a foe with a losing road record.
02-13-18	Maryland v. Nebraska -112		66-70	Win	100	7 h 32 m	Show
Nebraska doesn't receive any respect in the marketplace or from the oddsmaker. All the Cornhuskers do is cover spreads, though. The Cornhuskers are a mind-boggling 15-1 ATS in their last 16 lined games. Maryland is a bad road team and Nebraska is the better team if this were on a neutral court with a seven-point advantage going by points per 100 possessions. The Terrapins are 0-6 in their last six Big 10 road games. The Cornhuskers are well rested, too, in action for just the third time in 15 days.
02-12-18	Notre Dame +10.5 v. North Carolina		66-83	Loss	-106	5 h 34 m	Show
This is too many points for North Carolina to be laying carrying a high fatigue rating and in a letdown spot. The Tar Heels are in letdown mode after posting victories on Thursday against Duke and North Carolina State on Saturday. The buy sign is on for Notre Dame as the Irish have won their last two games beating Boston College and Florida State. Having Matt Farrell healthy again is huge for the Irish. The Irish played North Carolina extremely tough in the first meeting this season losing by one point as five-point home 'dogs. They have covered in six of the past nine meetings versus the Tar Heels.
02-10-18	Wyoming +6.5 v. UNLV		70-85	Loss	-105	10 h 10 m	Show
I don't trust the Rebels, nor their coach, Marvin Menzies, to cover this number in a letdown spot. UNLV is off a huge and highly-satisfying 86-78 road victory against arch-rival Nevada-Reno this past Wednesday. UNLV is 1-8 ATS following a victory. Now the Rebels take on a hot Wyoming team that has won five of its last six. The Cowboys' latest victory was 83-65 against Utah State, a team that beat the Rebels 85-78 last month. Wyoming has covered 20 of the past 28 times when going against an opponent with a winning record. UNLV has failed to cover in six of its last seven home contests,
02-10-18	George Washington v. George Mason OVER 140		65-72	Loss	-110	6 h 55 m	Show
George Washington has played three straight Over the totals game. Look for that trend to continue as the Colonials aren't that strong defensively, but have picked up their tempo offensively. George Mason is weaker defeinsvely than George Washington. The Patriots have gone Over in seven of their last eight games. These teams hit 148 in their first meeting won by George Washington, 80-68.
02-10-18	Louisiana-Monroe v. Georgia State -12.5		90-82	Loss	-110	4 h 20 m	Show
I see this as a kill spot for Georgia State, which has won 10 in a row with its last three victories coming by a combined 55 points. There is little chance of Georgia State taking Monroe lightly after the Warhawks upset Georgia Southern, 66-64 in overtime, as 10-point road 'dogs this past Thursday. Monroe is 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games and 1-5-1 ATS following a point spread cover.
02-10-18	Oklahoma v. Iowa State +6.5		80-88	Win	100	2 h 5 m	Show
There is enough value to make a play on Iowa State. The Cyclones can take advantage of Oklahoma;s defense to make this game close if not pull the outright upset. The Sooners have allowed 79 points or more in seven of their last eight games. Oklahoma also has failed to cove in its last five road contests. Oklahoma only has one road victory in the Big 12 Conference this season. That win was just by one point. It also has been a month since the Sooners posted a victory by more than this point spread.
02-09-18	Davidson +6.5 v. Rhode Island		59-72	Loss	-108	5 h 10 m	Show
Rhode Island is fat, happy and rusty having won 14 in a row but not having played for a week. I see the Rams having problems with Davidson, which is off three straight blowout victories. The Wildcats are road-proven having beaten Fordham, George Mason and Charlotte while losing by one point to Dayton. The Wildcats certainly won't lack for motivation after Rhoe Island ended their season in the Atlantic-10 Conference Tournament last season. Davidson is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine conference games.
02-09-18	Davidson v. Rhode Island UNDER 144.5		59-72	Win	100	5 h 8 m	Show
Davidson has switched its primary defense playing more zone. It has paid off as the Wildcats have held nine of their last 10 foes to 70 or fewer points. The Wildcats have moved up to No. 2 in defensive efficiency in the Atlantic 10 Conference. The No. 1 team in the conference in terms of defensive efficiency? It's Rhode Island. The Rams figure to be rusty, too, having not played in a week. So look for points to be harder to come by than the oddsmaker believes.
02-08-18	Washington v. Oregon UNDER 146		40-65	Win	100	12 h 56 m	Show
Not only does Washington have the No. 1 ranked defense in the Pac-12, but the Huskies also are top-ranked in the conference in 3-point defense. Oregon has slowed down its tempo, but still shoots a lot from beyond the arc. The Under has cashed an unbelievable 22 times in Washington's last 26 Pac-12 games. The Under also has cashed in 18 of the Huskies' past 22 road contests. Oregon has gone Under in seven of its last 10 games.
02-08-18	Duke -112 v. North Carolina	Top	78-82	Loss	-112	11 h 46 m	Show
Duke may have got caught peeking ahead to this game after losing 81-77 to St. John's in its last game this past Saturday. Expect the Blue Devils to be fully focused. They also are the better team. Duke has covered the past four times following a loss. The Blue Devils have defeated the Tar Heels in six of the last eight meetings. The Blue Devils certainly are road tested going 10-3-1 ATS during their past 14 road outings. Duke is 4-1, too, versus ranked teams this season. Duke leads the nation in scoring averaging nearly 90 points a game. North Carolina is 1-3 in its last four games giving up more than 80 points in each of its losses during this span. Duke can hurt the Tar Heels from long-distance as North Carolina ranks 324th in 3-point defense.
02-07-18	UNLV +9.5 v. Nevada		86-78	Win	100	15 h 26 m	Show
UNR has the best frontcourt in the Mountain West Conference with Jordan Caroline and twins Caleb and Cody Martin. But UNLV can counter that with 7-foot-1 Brandon McCoy, who is five inches taller than Caroline. McCoy is backed by Shakur Juiston, another good frontcourt player. The Wolf Pack haven't faced a big man as talened as McCoy this season. The Rebels have double revenge, which means a lot in this bitter intrastate rivalry. The Rebels are capable of posting big wins such as defeating Utah by 27 points. They have been at their point spread best as underdogs taking Northern Iowa, Arizona and Boise State to overtime all as a 'dog. The Rebels have the offense - ranking in the top eight in scoring and shooting percentage - along with the athleticism and talent to hang in against the Wolf Pack.
02-07-18	CS-Northridge v. Cal-Irvine UNDER 131.5	Top	56-77	Loss	-110	19 h 15 m	Show
Cal State Northridge is a huge Under team. The Matadors are 16-4-1 to the Under in their last 21 games, including 7-0 to the under in their last seven Big West Conference games. Now the Matadors go against UC Irvine, which has the No. 1 defense in the conference. Neither team is very strong offensively ranking among the bottom 100 in offensive efficiency. There were 125 points scored in the first game between the two teams. Irvine won, 71-54, by shooting 48.3 percent from the floor. The Anteaters shoot 44.1 percent from the field so they don't figure to be as hot this time around.
02-06-18	Missouri v. Ole Miss -120		75-69	Loss	-120	8 h 43 m	Show
Mississippi is in stop-the-pain mode having lost three in a row, including getting blown out by Tennessee in its last game. Missouri, on the other hand, is in a letdown spot after beating Kentucky for the first time this past Saturday. The Rebels figure to push pace, which is bad news for the depth-shy Tigers, who have only eight healthy players on scholarship. Mississippi has covered six of its last seven home games.
02-06-18	Nebraska +1.5 v. Minnesota		91-85	Win	100	13 h 6 m	Show
Nebraska has covered in its last seven road games. Minnesota is having a disastrous season. You have to believe in the Cornhuskers by now. They have been huge money-makers covering 17 of their last 23, including 10 of their past 11 Big Ten games. Nebraska defeated Minnesota by 10 points when the teams met in December. The Gophers played well in their last game, but missed the upset losing in overtime to Michigan on the road. I don't see them bouncing back to play at a high level again. Nebraska is the better defensive team giving up nearly six fewer points per game than Minnesota and the more steady, rebliable club.
02-05-18	Siena +8 v. Fairfield		65-78	Loss	-105	10 h 57 m	Show
The premise here is simple: Fairfield isn't good enough to lay this many points in a conference matchup. Siena is the better defensive team. Siena has a good history at Fairfield going 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 visits. The Saints also are 8-2 ATS the past 10 times being on the road playing a foe with a winning home record.
02-04-18	Tulsa v. South Florida +7.5		63-54	Loss	-105	7 h 49 m	Show
Tulsa isn't very good on the road and is in a letdown spot. The Golden Hurricane have won only two true away games all season. They have dropped their last four road contests and failed to cover in 11 of their last 16 away matchups. Tulsa very well could overlook South Florida, too. The Golden Hurricane are coming off a huge 76-67 home upset victory against SMU. South Florida has begun to play better. The Bulls upset Tulane three games ago so they are capable.
02-03-18	Missouri State v. Loyola-Chicago UNDER 131.5		75-97	Loss	-105	4 h 9 m	Show
Missouri State has gone Under in 10 of its last 12 games. The Under is 10-3-1 in Loyola's last 13 games. I see that trend continuing here as these are two defensive-minded teams who go at a slow pace. That was clear in the first meeting, which Missouri State won, 64-59, for a combined 123 points. Missouri State ranks 19th on defense while Loyola is even better ranking ninth in the country.
02-01-18	San Francisco v. St. Mary's UNDER 140.5	Top	43-79	Win	100	18 h 16 m	Show
St. Mary's beat San Francisco in its two meetings last season winning 66-46 at home for a total of 112 points and 63-52 on the road for a combined 115 points. Things shouldn't be any different in this matchup, certainly not to the extent of where this total opened. San Francisco ranks 74th defensively holding foes to 67.9 points a game. The Dons are much worse offensively ranking 281st averaging 69.4 points per game and ranking 306th in field goal percentage at 41.8. San Francisco does not play at a fast tempo and figures to really struggle at this tough venue. The Dons are going to have problems getting any easy baskets with St. Mary's 7-foot star Jock Landale patrolling the middle. The Gaels lead the nation in defensive rebounding. St. Mary's rates 28th-best in the country in defensive scoring holding foes to 65.2 points a game. The Gaels have won 16 in a row. They are going to control tempo here - and that tempo is not going to be fast. The Geals play at an extremely slow and deliberate pace. That pace is perfect when protecting a big lead, which the Gaels should build.
01-31-18	Cal-Irvine v. Long Beach State OVER 147		75-68	Loss	-110	20 h 11 m	Show
These two teams met earlier this season and UC Irvine won, 86-73. There were 159 points scored in that game despite only 28 free throws being shot. Look for that many to be scored in the rematch as Irvine won't mind running with the 49ers based on their earlier outcome. Long Beach State has scored at least 75 points in five of its last six games. The 49ers, though, rank 324th defensively giving up nearly 80 points per game.
01-29-18	Nebraska v. Wisconsin -3		74-63	Loss	-107	14 h 51 m	Show
Wisconsin is in revenge mode and draws Nebraska playing for the fourth time in eight days. The Badgers are way down after losing four senior starters from a year ago, but they still are tough at home where they are 9-3 with a winning spread mark. The Cornhuskers have been overacheiving, but face a heavy fatigue factor in this matchup. Nebraska nipped the Badgers at home, 63-59, on Jan. 9. Wisconson missed 14 of 19 3-point shots in that gamd and only got to the free throw line 10 times missing six free throws. I see a reversal happening here.
01-29-18	Lehigh v. Holy Cross OVER 139	Top	71-67	Loss	-110	19 h 17 m	Show
There were 160 points scored when the teams met earlier this season with Lehigh winning, 83-77. Lehigh averages 76.2 points per game and plays terrible defense. The Mountain Hawks surrender 79.4 points per game, which ranks 319th in the country. So it's no surprise the Over has cashed 69 percent of the time during Lehigh's past 13 Patriot League games. The Over also has won in five of Lehigh's last six road contests. Holy Cross is coming off a season-high 85-point game.
01-28-18	Connecticut v. Temple -6		57-85	Win	100	10 h 51 m	Show
Circumstances line up well here for Temple. The Owls played one of their worst games of the season losing 75-42 on the road to eighth-ranked Cincinnati on Tuesday. Connecticut, on the other hand, is coming off a huge upset home win against SMU on Wednesday. The Huskies are 2-6 ATS following a spread cover. The Huskies are in a letdown spot and their concentration is further going to be tested by breaking news that the program is being investigaged by the NCAA. Connecticut remains without second-leading scorer Terry Larrier, who is out with a nose injury.
01-27-18	Tennessee-Martin v. Tennessee Tech -6		55-63	Win	100	11 h 19 m	Show
I'm going to fade Tennessee-Martin in this spot. The Skyhawks are playing on the road for the fourth straight time. They also are coming off a huge upset of Jacksonville State from two days ago. The Skyhawks have lost 10 of 13 road games this season. Tennessee Tech has revenge for an overtime loss to Tennessee-Martin this season.
01-27-18	Rutgers +8.5 v. Penn State	Top	43-60	Loss	-105	14 h 19 m	Show
Rutgers is the wrong team to be laying a big number against especially in a monster letdown spot. That's the position Penn State is in today. The Nittany Lions are off their biggest win of the season, stunning 13th-ranked Ohio State on the road, 82-79, this past Thursday night on a long 3-pointer by Tony Carr at the buzzer. Now, less than two days later, the Nittany Lions face the No. 6 ranked defense in the nation. Rutgers is weak offensively. But the Scarlet Knights give up the sixth-fewest points per game in the country and rank 12th in defensive field goal percentage. They have allowed 62.1 points per game during their last six games, which is their season average. Rutgers upset Penn State as an 8-point road 'dog last season and are in great position to repeat.
01-27-18	St. John's v. Butler -9		45-70	Win	100	5 h 2 m	Show
The buy sign is back on for Butler. The Bulldogs are back on track and surely don't want to be the first Big East team to lose to St. John's this season. They lost at home to St. John's last season so they surely should be ready this time. The Bulldogs have covered 10 of their last 13 lined home games. It's evident that Chris Mullin was a far better player than a head coach. St. John's is terrible this season under Mullin. The Red Storm are not helped by still missing injured Marcus LoVett, their second-leading scorer.
01-26-18	Wagner +3.5 v. St Francis PA		91-61	Win	100	8 h 43 m	Show
Sources point me to Wagner. The Seahawks have been playing good ball winning five of their last six games They just beat St. Francis, 73-64, eight days ago. Wagner dominated the boards in that game outrebounding St. Francis, 36-23. St. Francis is a weak defensive club. The Red Flash barely 40 percent from the floor in their loss to Wagner and missed 19 of 25 3-point shots.
01-25-18	SMU -5.5 v. Connecticut		52-63	Loss	-115	11 h 57 m	Show
UConn has failed to cover in 22 of its last 30 home games and I don't like its chances here. SMU have the sixth stingiest defense in the country holding foes to 62 points a game. The combination of the Mustangs' defense and outstanding outside shooting should mean a double-digit victory. UConn just can't concentrate on one SMU player because every Mustang starter averages double figures. The Huskies are down second-leading scorer Terry Larrier. He's out with a fractured sinus wall.
01-24-18	Temple +14 v. Cincinnati		42-75	Loss	-110	15 h 56 m	Show
Temple has revenge for a narrow 55-53 loss to Cincinnati earlier this month. The Bearcats won that game with a late basket. So this spread is out of whack especially given Temple's quality defense that gives up less than 69 points a game. I envision another defensive struggle here so this many points should be more than enough for the Owls to cover. The Owls are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games versus the Bearcats.
01-24-18	Nebraska +1.5 v. Rutgers		60-54	Win	100	8 h 6 m	Show
After facing Ohio State and Michigan, Nebraska drops down in class here. The Cornhuskers upset the Wolverines and nearly did the same to the Buckeyes. The Cornhuskers have revenge motivation for a 65-64 loss to Rutgers from last season. Nebraska had defeated the Scarlet Knights five straight times before then. Both teams are improved. But I'm going to ride the Cornhuskers, who are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games.
01-24-18	Mercer v. East Tennessee State UNDER 134	Top	75-84	Loss	-110	13 h 7 m	Show
The Mercer Bears lost their top scorer, Ria'n Holland, two games ago to a wrist injury. They played their first game without him this past Saturday and lost 70-66 in overtime to NC Greensboro. The Bears scored 55 points in regulation No Mercer player scored more than 11 points in that game. The Bears are really hurting on the offensive end without Holland, who is leading the team in scoring at 19 points a game. The next highest scorer for Mercer averages 10.6 points per game. The Under has cashed 11 of the last 13 times Mercer has lost during its previous game. East Tennessee State ranks in the top-25 in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage. The Buccaneers have held heir last four opponents to an average of 54.2 points a game.
01-23-18	Oklahoma State v. Texas Tech UNDER 142.5		70-75	Loss	-110	11 h 8 m	Show
Texas Tech has gone Under in six of its eight home games this season. The Red Raiders rank in the top-five in defensive efficiency and should be playing intense defense after getting blown out at Iowa State this past Saturday. Oklahoma State has tightened up its defense. Both teams rank among the bottom four in the Big 12 in terms of tempo.
01-20-18	Montana v. Montana State +7		67-52	Loss	-105	9 h 27 m	Show
Granted Montana is playing well. However, I want the home underdog going for me in this state rivalry matchup. Montana State is 6-1 at home this season. The Bobcats have won and covered in their last three home games. The Bobcats defeated Montana, 78-69, when they hosted the Grizzlies last season.
01-19-18	Indiana +15.5 v. Michigan State	Top	57-85	Loss	-108	17 h 31 m	Show
There are a lot of peaks and valleys during the long college basketball season. Right now Indiana is playing well and Michigan State isn't. The Hoosiers have won five of their last six, including their last three. Indiana is playing tremendous defense, getting strong play from Juwan Morgan and rebounding production from its guards. Michigan State would be 0-3 in its last three games if not for a home overtime victory against Rutgers. The Spartans are 1-6 ATS the past seven times playing an above .500 opponent. They are going to look to run more being at home. Indiana, though, ranks No. 2 in the Big Ten in steals and turnover margin at plus 3.7. Michigan State, by contrast, ranks near the bottom in turnover margin at minus 3.2. The Hooisers have covered the past five times they've met opponents with a winning percentage above .600. They have stepped up their play enough where they can be trusted to hang in on the road against the Spartans especially taking this big of a number.
01-18-18	Illinois-Chicago v. Youngstown State +3		92-78	Loss	-105	6 h 45 m	Show
The oddsmaker has the wrong favorite here. Illinois-Chicago should not be a conference road favorite. The Flames have won only once in eight away contests this season. Youngstown State's record is somewhat misleading when you consider it played the 66th most-difficult non-league schedule. The Penguins' non-conference schedule was muich more difficult than the Flames. That should pay off here. The Penguins also have covered in their last six Horizon League games.
01-17-18	Fresno State v. San Diego State UNDER 148		77-73	Loss	-115	20 h 18 m	Show
Two strong defenses square off here in what should be an intense conference matchup. San Diego State is No. 1 in the Mountain West Conference in fewest points allowed and defensive field goal percentage. The Aztecs could catch the Bulldogs minus two of their three best guards, including their point guard and most accurate 3-point shooter. Both have eligibility problems that need to be fixed.
01-17-18	Fresno State v. San Diego State -7	Top	77-73	Loss	-105	21 h 35 m	Show
San Diego State is the top defensive team in the Mountain West Conference. The Aztecs are 7-1 at home and have revenge for a home loss to Fresno State last season. Fresno State could be missing guards Jaron Hopkins and Jahmel Taylor. They are the third and fourth leading scorers on the Bulldogs. Taylor ranks fifth in the Mountain West in 3-point shooting percentage. Neither player traveled with the team on Tuesday because they are not technically enrolled in school. There's the possibility this problem may not get straighten out before tip-off. San Diego State is at its best against smaller, perimeter-shooting based teams such as Fresno State. So the loss of two key guards really would hurt the Bulldogs. Fresno State has failed to cover in six of its last seven Mountain West Conference matchups.
01-17-18	Southern Illinois v. Loyola-Chicago UNDER 136		65-79	Loss	-115	15 h 40 m	Show
The Loyola Chicago Ramblers are coming off a rare higher scoring game, but this is a team that has been consistently under this number. In fact, their first five MVC games were all 129 points or lower. Last game, they shot the ball extremely well and they won 81-65. I think that game was the exception rather than the rule. That last game though is giving us value on the number here. Southern Illinois and Loyola Chicago both like to slow the game down. There is no reason this tempo should be quick at all. Neither of these team get many second chance points, and that is a clear help here.
01-17-18	Duquesne +6 v. St. Louis		63-76	Loss	-103	8 h 35 m	Show
The marketplace has been slow to see the full improvement with Duquesne this season. The Dukes rank among the top three teams in the Atlantic 10 Conference in defense and I believe they can hang with St. Louis. They have won and covered four of their last five games. Both teams operate at a slow tempo, which is another plus for the 'dog in this mid-size range.
01-16-18	Drake +6.5 v. Northern Iowa		54-68	Loss	-105	8 h 40 m	Show
I like backing underdogs in the defensive-minded Missouri Valley Conference especially here with much-improved Drake. The Bulldogs have won and covered five of their last six games. I see them hanging in against Northern Iowa. Drake has a good offense, averaging more than 77 points, and its defense played well in an 81-65 home win against Evansville in its last game. Northern Iowa often is overpriced going 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 conference games. That's the case again here.
01-15-18	Maryland +7 v. Michigan		67-68	Win	100	9 h 58 m	Show
Maryland has had Michigan's number winning five of the last six times the teams have met, including a victory in Ann Arbor last season. The Terrapins catch the Wolverines off a huge 82-72 win against rival Michigan State this past Saturday. I doubt the Wolverines can regain their full intensity for this matchup following that huge win. Maryland is out for redemption having suffered a 91-69 loss to Ohio State on Thursday.
01-14-18	St. Joe's v. Massachusetts OVER 146		69-72	Loss	-110	5 h 3 m	Show
St. Joe's is averaging 83.6 points during its last three games while stepping up the pace. The Over has cashed the last six times St. Joe's has played. The over has cashed in four of UMass's last five games. UMass has allowed at least 79 points in three of its last four games. I'm looking for an uptempo, offensive-minded game here.
01-13-18	Florida International v. UTEP OVER 137	Top	68-72	Win	100	11 h 19 m	Show
These two teams have gone Over during their past eight meetings. Look for that tend to continue today. UTEP is giving up an average of 81.6 points during its last three games. Florida International is playing at a fast pace this season. The Over is 15-6-1 in the Panthers' last 22 games.

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