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NCAA Basketball Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
03-02-19	Boise State v. UNLV -2		81-85	Win	100	19 h 18 m	Show
The Rebels beat Boise State, 83-72, on the road on Feb. 6 and certainly are capable of beating the Broncos at home. The Rebels are a basket away from being 4-1 in their last five games. Boise State, on the other hand, has fallen apart going 1-6 in its last seven games with losses in their past four games. The Broncos' lone win during this span is against San Jose State, the worst team in the Mountain West Conference. Boise State also could be minus its third-leading scorer as guard Derrick Alston is questionable with a toe injury.
03-02-19	Texas-Arlington -3 v. Troy State	Top	79-66	Win	100	13 h 20 m	Show
Texas Arlington is 10-6 in the Sun Belt Conference. The Mavericks are in must-win mode trailing Texas State by two games for the top spot. The Mavericks host Texas State next Saturday in their final regular season game. Texas State is a small road favorite against South Alabama today in a game that tips off five hours later than this one. Texas Arlington beat Texas State in the first meeting this season. So the Mavericks should be going all out here in order to potentially set up a first-place showing matchup next Saturday. Troy is last in the Sun Belt at 4-11. The Trojans couldn't withstand the suspension of forward Jordon Varnado, their leading scorer and second-leading rebounder. Varnado averages 21.5 points a game. Troy's second-leading scorer, Alex Hicks, averages 12.5 points. The Trojans are 1-5 SU and ATS since losing Varnado. Troy hasn't been good in the Sun Belt for a while now going 3-12-1 ATS in their past 16 conference games. The Trojans have lost the past two times to the Mavericks, including 86-76 this past Jan. 4.
03-02-19	Illinois State v. Southern Illinois OVER 133		63-72	Win	100	18 h 37 m	Show
Illinois State is averaging 66 points in its last two games. Nothing outstanding about that except the Redbirds have played at a faster tempo. They were averaging 58.4 points during their previous five games. Southern Illinois has picked up its pace, too. The Salukis are coming off their highest scoring game of the season, a 98-91 road win versus Evansville. Illinois State ranks seven in the 10-team Missouri Valley Conference in scoring defense. The Over has cashed four of the last five times Southern Illinois has hosted Illinois State.
02-28-19	Long Beach State +8.5 v. UC-Santa Barbara		69-64	Win	100	10 h 46 m	Show
If you go by won-lost records then this point spread is justified. Long Beach State is 11-18 overall and 5-8 in the Big West Conference. Cal Santa Barbara is 19-8 and 8-5 in league. Current form-wise, though, these teams are much closer than this point spread shows. The spot sets up well for Long Beach State, too. Oddsmakers don't have time to do in-depth study on minor conferences such as the Big West. They are assigning their point spread number based almost entirely on their power rankings. But now the 49ers are playing their finest basketball. They are 3-2 in their last five games, including winning their past two. Prior to last week, the 49ers had dropped eight of nine. Note, though, that five of those defeats occurred by seven points or fewer. Their last four defeats have been by an average of four points. Sophomore wing Jordan Roberts has helped spark this improvement scoring double digits during in each of the last three games after failing to reach that figure in 22 of the first 26 games. Santa Barbara was a level higher than Long Beach during the first half of the season. The Gauchos had aspirations to win the Big West title. But that's not going to happen. Santa Barbara won't be able to catch UC Irvine with only three regular season games left. The Gauchos are just about locked into a top-four spot. Long Beach State is 1 1/2 games out of fifth place in the Big West. The 49ers have incentive to finish fifith in the conference in order to gain a more favorable conference seeding. The Gauchos haven't been good in these type of situations. They are 1-7 ATS the past eight times going against sub .500 opponents and have failed to cover in five of their past seven home games. The 49ers average nearly two more points per game than the Gauchos. They also have covered in their last four road contests. Long Beach State is undervalued here and a very live 'dog in my view.
02-28-19	USC v. UCLA -3		88-93	Win	100	10 h 38 m	Show
UCLA is a better and different team than when it lost 80-67 to USC on Jan. 19. The Bruins had won the four previous games in the series. I see them bouncing back here. The Bruins are 12-5 ATS versus opponents sporting a losing road record. USC is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games versus opponents who have a winning home floor.
02-28-19	Old Dominion +1.5 v. Texas-San Antonio		65-64	Win	100	8 h 48 m	Show
Old Dominion has lost just once in its last 12 games. That loss, though, occurred to Texas San Antonio. I see the Monarchs getting their revenge here. Old Dominion shot just 30 percent from the field in that defeat while the Roadrunners were on fire from long distance connecting on 16 of 31 3-pointers. The Monarachs are the superior defense ranking in the top-10 in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage.
02-27-19	Marquette v. Villanova -5		61-67	Win	100	11 h 24 m	Show
I want Villanova going for me at home in desperate need of revenge and a victory. The Wildcats have lost three in a row. All of those defeats were on the road. They also lost to Marquette by one point on the road on Feb. 9. The Wildcats are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 home games. They have covered six of the past eight times versus Marquette.
02-27-19	Marquette v. Villanova UNDER 143.5	Top	61-67	Win	100	12 h 45 m	Show
Expect tremendous intensity in this matchup. Villanova is in revenge and stop-the-pain mode. The Wildcats' shooting has been way off. They need to win with defense. Marquette superstar Markus Howard isn't 100 percent because of a groin injury. There were only 131 points when the team's met the first time this season with Marquette nipping Villanova, 66-65. The teams are even more familiar with each other now.
02-27-19	Houston v. East Carolina OVER 133.5		99-65	Win	100	9 h 5 m	Show
These teams met last month. East Carolina only managed 50 points. Yet the total still went Over. Now we have a much smaller total for the rematch. It's too short of a total given Houston's scoring ability and tendency to run up scores, which it did against the Pirates in the first meet. Houston poured in 94 points against East Carolina. That was the most points the Cougars had scored since their opening game versus non-league opponent Alabama A&M.
02-26-19	Wisconsin v. Indiana UNDER 126		73-75	Loss	-109	8 h 44 m	Show
I'm going to fade the line movement, which has been to the Over, and go with the Under in the belief this total has become inflated. Wisconsin has gone Under in nine of its last 11 games. The Badgers have a top-10 defense. So Under always is my first look with the Badgers. Wisconsin is giving up just 57.3 points per game during its last 10 games. Indiana is averaging only 56 points in regulation during its past four games. Indiana has a respectable defense giving up 67 points per game. The Hoosiers have surrendered just 55.5 points in regulation during their last two matchups. The Under has cashed in five of Indian's last six home contests.
02-24-19	Michigan State v. Michigan -3.5		77-70	Loss	-130	4 h 45 m	Show
I am riding MIchigan here. The Wolverines are 16-0 at home. They have covered six of their last seven home games and have owned the Spartans recently beating them by double digits during each of the past three meetings. The Spartans are dealing with key injuries. Against some opponents they could get away with it. Not here, though,
02-23-19	Florida State +7 v. North Carolina		59-77	Loss	-109	12 h 39 m	Show
Florida State is riding a season-high eight-game win streak. The Seminoles are off a 77-64 road win against Clemson this past Tuesday. They draw North Carolina off an emotional victory against its biggest rival, Duke. Any time the Tar Heels just beat Duke they are ripe for a letdown in their next game. The Seminoles are the best in the ACC in two-point percentage defense. The Tar Heels rank seventh in the ACC in giving up points per 100 possessions.
02-23-19	Loyola Marymount -1 v. Pacific		63-56	Win	100	12 h 46 m	Show
Loyola Marymount buried Pacific, 60-42, in the first meeting between these teams as six-point favorites as they dominated the boards and the Lions are in a great spot to do it again. The Lions are off losses to Gonzaga and BYU. They have been idle for a week. Pacfic just played on Thursday night where the Tigers lost, 58-32, to St. Mary's. Pacific is averaging just 50 points in its last three games. Loyola Marymount is tough in these spots, too, going 10-4-1 ATS the past 15 times versus a foe with a losing mark.
02-23-19	Indiana State v. Missouri State UNDER 132.5		61-67	Win	100	18 h 45 m	Show
Missouri State has gone Under in 11 of its last 13 games. I'm going to ride that trend. The most points the Bears have surrendered during their last nine games is 65 points. They have held seven of their past nine opponents to 63 or fewer points. Indiana State just held Illinois State to 50 points in its last game.
02-22-19	Harvard -1.5 v. Brown	Top	79-88	Loss	-113	18 h 38 m	Show
Yale and Harvard are the class of the Ivy League. Harvard buried Brown, 68-47, as six-point home chalk on Feb. 2. So laying this short price on the road is more than fair. The Crimson have covered 71 percent of their last 33 Ivy League games. Brown has only covered 17 percent of its past 13 Ivy League contests. Harvard also covered 68 percent of its last 22 away matchups and is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings versus Brown. Only once in their last eight games have the Crimson lost. That was against Cornell three games ago and came the day after the Crimson went three overtimes in a victory against Columbia.
02-21-19	UCF +8 v. Cincinnati		55-60	Win	100	6 h 9 m	Show
Central Florida is playing well with three straight victories. Cincinnati is tough at home, but I don't see the Knights being outclassed at all in this matchup. They are getting balanced scoring and play with a great deal of intensity. Both teams are strong defensively ranking among the top 40. So taking this many points is huge. The Bearcats have failed to cover seven of the past 10 times when going against an above .500 opponent.
02-20-19	Villanova -5.5 v. Georgetown	Top	73-85	Loss	-108	18 h 21 m	Show
I want Villanova off a rare loss. I also want to fade Georgtown now that they realistically are not going to get a bid to the NCAA Tournament unless it does extremely well in the Big East Conference Tournament. The Hoyas are 1-3 in their last four games and off a 90-75 loss to Seton Hall. Georgetown is 5-11-1 ATS in its last 17 Big East Conference games. The Hoyas also are 4-12-1 ATS during their past 17 home games versus opponents with a winning road mark. Star guard Phil Booth had a sub-par game against St. John's this past Sunday in a 71-65 road loss. The Wildcats blew an 11-point second half lead against the Red Storm. Jay Wright isn't taking that defeat lightly. Booth should help the Wildcats exploit St. John's youthful backdourt. Booth, the Hoyas' leading scorer at 18.3 points, didn't have a strong game in the first meeting between the two teams on Feb. 3. Yet the Wildcats still won, 77-65, covering as 11 1/2-point home favorites. Villanova has proven itself on the road covering 69 percent of its last 51 away matchups. The Wildcats also have covered the past four times versus Georgetown.
02-19-19	Alabama -123 v. Texas A&M	Top	56-65	Loss	-123	8 h 14 m	Show
Alabama is on a two-game losing skid. The Crimson Tide are coming off a terrible 18-point home loss to Florida. I expect them to be ready here. They have not lost three games all season and are 14-3 ATS following a double-digit home defeat. Alabama could damage its NCAA Tournament chances with a loss here. The Crimson Tide are the better team - ranked 56th in the latest Ken Pom ratings compared to Texas A&M being rated 98th - and have revenge. The Aggies nipped them, 81-80, on a buzzer beater. The Tide were 7 1/2-point home favorites in that matchup, which occurred on Jan. 12. Alabama led for all but four minutes in that game. Texas A&M is 3-9 in the SEC. The Aggies' other two conference victories were against Georgia and Missouri, who have a combined 4-20 SEC record. Texas A&M is just 4-10 ATS at home this season.
02-19-19	Vanderbilt +18 v. Tennessee		46-58	Win	100	8 h 3 m	Show
Vandy is on a 13-game losing streak. But the Commodores have hung close in eight of those losses, either leading or trailing by no more than five points in the final four minutes. They nearly upset then top-ranked Tennessee on Jan. 23 losing in overtime. Tennessee just lost it's No. 1 ranking by losing to Kentucky this past Saturday. The Volunteers have to be down about that defeat. The Commodores take this matchup far more serious than the Volunteers.
02-18-19	Illinois +11 v. Wisconsin	Top	58-64	Win	100	18 h 5 m	Show
Missing 17 of 21 shots from beyond the arc, Illinois lost 72-60 to Wisconsin on Jan. 23. Since then the Illini have gone 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS as their talented but inexperienced freshmen have matured and become more consistent. The Illini are beating good teams during this stretch, too, knocking off Michigan State, Maryland and Ohio State on the road. While Illinois is coming on, Wisconsin is slipping. The Badgers have lost consecutive games to Michigan and Michigan State. No shame in that, but the Badgers are showing signs of fatigue. They are not a deep team either. Wisconsin wins with great defense. Illinois ranks No. 13, though, in forcing turnovers. The Illini average four more points per game than Wisconsin and can keep this one close.
02-17-19	Fairfield v. Niagara UNDER 147		73-78	Loss	-109	3 h 51 m	Show
Fairfield is having trouble scoring. The Staggs are averaging just 54.6 points per game during their last five games. But they are playing strong defense holding four of their last five foes to fewer than 63 points a game. The Under has cashed in each of their last nine games. Niagara is averaging 64.6 points per game in its last three games. These teams have a strong Under bias, too, with 10 of the last 13 meetings between the two schools going below the total.
02-16-19	Northwestern +5 v. Nebraska		50-59	Loss	-109	18 h 26 m	Show
Northwestern is in stop-the-pain mode suffering five straight losses, including close defeats to Iowa and Rutgers in their last two games. The Wildcats lost those two games by a combined four points. I see the Wildcats bouncing back against Nebraska, which has become a point spread nightmare going 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games, including failing to cover in its last six home contests. The Cornhuskers' collapse has coincided with a season-ending injury suffered by forward Isaac Copeland on Jan. 26. He is Nebraska's second leading scorer and rebounder. Nebraska was lucky to end its seven-game losing streak by beating Minnesota in its last game. The Gophers practically handed Nebraska the victory. That won't happen against Northwestern. Bottom line is Nebraska can't be a mid-sized favorite against any Big Ten team right now.
02-16-19	Tennessee v. Kentucky -3	Top	69-86	Win	100	21 h 58 m	Show
I understand the Volunteers have won 19 in a row and are 11-0 in the SEC. But I'm not sold on Tennessee, nor its coach, Rick Barnes. If the Vols win this game, I will be. But I don't see them beating Kentucky on the road. Kentucky's freshmen are starting to mesh. The Wildcats have covered eight of their last nine and are 19-7 ATS the past 26 times going against an opponent with a winning record. The Wildcats will be even more determined to win this game after suffering a 73-71 loss at home to LSU this past Tuesday that ended their 10-game win streak. The Wildcats let a nine-point second-half lead against LSU slip, losing on a tip-in at the buzzer. The Wildcats have the talented shooters to exploit Tennessee's lone real weak spot, their 3-point defense.
02-16-19	VCU v. Dayton OVER 135		69-68	Win	100	20 h 26 m	Show
The oddsmaker opened this total too low. VCU won the first meeting between the two teams, 76-71. Dayton has scored at least 75 points in three of its past five games. The Flyers average 74 points on the season, while VCU averages nearly 71 points per game. The Rams are an up-tempo team, too. The Over has cashed in four of their last five games. The Over also has won the past six times these teams have met.
02-15-19	Northern Kentucky v. Wright State -1	Top	77-81	Win	100	21 h 44 m	Show
This Horizon League showdown is being shown on ESPNU. It's the biggest game of the season for Wright State and I believe the Raiders will be up for the challenge. The Raiders are home and playing their best ball winning seven of their last eight games while going 5-3 ATS. Wright State is 11-2 at home. Northern Kentucky has a losing record on the road and has been very bad point spread-wise away from home covering only three of its last 12 road matchups. The Norse are 1-8 ATS the past nine times when on the road versus an opponent with a winning home record. Northern Kentucky defeated Wright State, 68-64, as 4 1/2-point home favorites on Jan. 11 The Raiders managed to cover despite shooting much worse from the floor than Northern Kentucky, making just three of 15 3-point attempts and shooing seven fewer free throws. Wright State's bench has improved since that defeat. The Raiders also rank 49th in the country in free throw percentage compared to Northern Kentucky, which rates 321st in the nation in free throw accuracy.
02-13-19	Rutgers +6 v. Northwestern		59-56	Win	100	9 h 25 m	Show
I see a close, intense game here with every point mattering. Northwestern has lost four in a row. The Wildcats have been held to fewer than 53 points in three of their last four games. Rutgers has covered four of its last six games as its freshmen continue to improve. The Scarlet Knights own straight-up victories against Nebraska, Penn State and Indiana during this span. The Scarlet Knights should be pumped in revenge mode for a 65-57 home loss to Northwestern on Jan. 18. Rutgers was without its leading scorer, Eugene Omoruyi, in that game. He will play here.
02-12-19	Arkansas -117 v. Missouri		78-79	Loss	-117	11 h 16 m	Show
Arkansas has picked up its game going 4-2 SU and ATS in its last six games. The Razorbacks beat Missouri, 72-60, at home on Jan. 23. This time around, the Razorbacks catch the Tigers off a disappointing, 68-59, home loss to Texas A&M in which they blew a 12-point second half lead. The Tigers have been held to fewer than 61 points in three of their last four games missing their second-leading scorer injured Mark Smith. The Tigers have failed to cover in eight of their last 11 SEC matchups.
02-12-19	Marquette v. DePaul +3.5		92-73	Loss	-109	11 h 39 m	Show
This is a dangerous spot for 10th-ranked Marquette traveling after a huge home nationally televised victory against Villanova this past Saturday. DePaul is much improved. The Blue Demons have five wins in Big East play this season, which is their second-highest win total during the past 11 seasons. They have won two in a row. The Blue Demons are 13-3 when outrebounding their opponents. They outrebounded Marquette in the first meeting, but lost 79-69 on Jan. 23. DePaul made 15 of 19 free throws in that game. Marquette, however, was 28-for-32 from the foul line for 87.5 percent.
02-10-19	East Carolina +14 v. South Florida		68-72	Win	100	15 h 20 m	Show
Getting a late 3-pointer from David Collins, South Florida upset SMU as 5 1/2-point road 'dogs this past Thursday. That victory puts the Bulls 10 games above .500 for the first time in 27 years. South Florida is fat and happy as it returns home to face lowly East Carolina. The Pirates are having a rough season. But they should be pumped for this matchup while the Bulls are in a letdown spot. East Carolina has revenge for a 77-57 loss from two weeks ago and were called out by its coach following a dismal 65-49 loss to Wichita State on Wednesday. It's an added plus for East Carolina if South Florida is missing Alexix Yetna for a second straight game. He leads the American Athletic Conference in rebounding and had a huge performance in the Bulls' earlier victory against the Pirates with 28 points and 13 rebounds. Yetna is dealing with a hamstring injury. The Bulls may not want to take a chance on him for this game with a bigger matchup on deck Wednesday versus Central Florida.
02-10-19	Siena v. Rider UNDER 134		59-57	Win	100	2 h 19 m	Show
I'm going to ride the Under train with Sienna. The Saints have gone Under the total in their last eight games and are 12-2 to the low side during their past 14 Metro Atlantic Conference games. The Under also is 6-2-1 in Rider's last nine home games. Sienna has given up fewer than 55 points in five of their last six games, holding four opponents under 51 points during this current span. Rider's offense remains very inconsistent.
02-09-19	St. Mary's +17 v. Gonzaga	Top	46-94	Loss	-110	11 h 36 m	Show
I recall St. Mary's upsetting Gonzaga, 74-71, as 7 1/2-point road 'dogs last season. But while I'm not saying the Gaels can pull a similar upset in Spokane this season, I do believe they can hang in and that this line is inflated based on Gonzaga winning 13 in a row with many of those victories occurring in blowout fashion. The Gaels haven't lost a game in regulation by more than six points since Nov. 21. The Bulldogs are the No. 1 scoring team in the nation. St. Mary's may be down from previous seasons, but the Gaels still are very good. They rank 21st in field goal percentage and surrender fewer than 67 points a game. Gaels' guard Jordan Ford leads the West Coast Conference in scoring at 22.1 points a game.
02-09-19	Tennessee Tech v. Tennessee-Martin UNDER 143.5		58-77	Win	100	7 h 40 m	Show
Offensive efficiency and tempo are two of the biggest keys in assessing a college basketball totals play. Both elements point to an Under in this Ohio Valley Conference matchup. Tennessee Tech is last in the conference in offensive efficiency. The Golden Eagles are 274th in the nation in scoring averaging less than 70 points a game. The Under has cashed in eight of their last 11 games. UT Martin plays at a slow pace. The Skyhawks have stepped up their defense recently holding four of their last five foes to fewer than 70 points per game.
02-09-19	Providence +7 v. St. John's		70-56	Win	100	10 h 45 m	Show
Providence is in circle-the-wagons mode here desperately needing a victory to keep alive thoughts of trying to make the NCAA Tournament for a school-record sixth straight time. The Friars catch St. John's in a possible letdown scenario after the Red Storm upset Marquette, 70-69, on Wednesday dealing the Golden Eagles their first home loss of the season. The Friars have the defense to hang in against St. John's leading the Big East in forcing turnovers and ranking in the top-50 in adjusted defense. The Friars also like to play at Madison Square Garden. They reached the finals of the Big East Tournament playing at MSG last season before losing to Villanova in overtime. The Friars are 9-4 ATS the past 13 times on the road when playing an opponent with an above .600 home record. Providence has defeated St. John's in six of the last seven meetings, including the past three. The Red Storm are 0-4 ATS the last four times they have hosted Providence.
02-08-19	Princeton +8 v. Yale		60-74	Loss	-106	4 h 53 m	Show
I see excellent value here with Princeton. The Tigers have won seven in a row while covering in their last five games. They are 20-8-1 ATS following a victory. Yale is strong, too. But the Bulldogs can be vulnerable defensively. I prefer Princeton's defense. I'm expecting a slow pace, which is a plus, too, for an underdog taking this many points. The Tigers are giving up only 55.5 points per game in Ivy League play this season.
02-07-19	Hawaii +1 v. Long Beach State	Top	77-70	Win	100	21 h 33 m	Show
I'm usually attracted to the superior team in a pick or underdog spot. That's what we have here with Hawaii against Long Beach State. Hawaii is 4-3 in the Big West Conference. The Warriors are in must-win mode being 2 1/2 games out of first place. They are ranked 189th in the highly respected Ken Pom ratings. Long Beach State is 2-5 in the Big West with five consecutive losses. The 49ers are ranked 37 spots behind Hawaii by Ken Pom. The Warriors are surrendering 15 fewer points per game than the 49ers during the past five games. The two teams just met last Thursday and Hawaii was a 9 1/2-point home favorite. The Warriors shot 41.7 percent from the floor, missed 21 of 28 3-pointers and shot five fewer free throws yet still easily won, 74-57. So what has caused around a 10-point difference in the line? Well Hawaii is leaving the island following a 75-54 home loss to Santa Barbara as 3-point favorites, but that's not nearly worth that many points. The Warriors are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games following three or more straight home games and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 matchups versus a sub .500 opponent. Long Beach State is just 3-7 ATS in its past 10 games against foes with winning records.
02-06-19	Oklahoma State v. TCU UNDER 142	Top	68-70	Win	100	12 h 10 m	Show
TCU is one of those good home, bad road teams. The Horned Frogs are home here and primed for a strong game epecially defensively. TCU coach Jamie Dixon is really stressing defense following his team's embarrassing 90-64 road loss to Baylor this past Saturday. That was the Horned Frogs' worst loss since Dixon became their coach in 2016. TCU has held its last three home opponents to an average of 59.3 points a game. The Horned Frogs allowed their past two opponents - Baylor and Texas Tech - to make 24 of 49 3-point shots for 49 percent. Both of those games were on the road. Despite that, the Horned Frogs still rank 26th in the nation in 3-point defensive percentage and were leading the Big 12 in 3-point defense prior to those games. Oklahoma State leads the Big 12 in 3-point shooting. But I see the Horned Frogs really clamping down on the Cowboys. Oklahoma State is averaging just 62.7 points in its last four games. The Cowboys, though, rank 64th in defensive field goal percentage. They have slowed down their pace, too, from earlier in the season, which is a strong plus for the Under.
02-06-19	George Mason -117 v. Richmond		67-81	Loss	-117	10 h 40 m	Show
Look for George Mason to bounce back against Richmond. The Patriots had a five-game win streak snapped by VCU this past Saturday. The Patriots are tied for second in the Atlantic 10 with a 7-2 mark. They are 6-1 ATS in their past seven road games. Richmond is 2-7 in conference. The Spiders are 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six games. They have failed to cover in their past four home contests and have played much worse since losing guard Nick Sherod in late November. Richmond averages fewer than 70 points a game. George Mason ranks 89th in scoring defense.
02-05-19	Valparaiso +8 v. Illinois State		69-53	Win	100	11 h 48 m	Show
Taking points often is the way to go in the defensive-minded Missouri Valley Conference. Valparaiso gives up five fewer points per game than Illinois State and draws the Redbirds in a flat spot. Illinois State just beat Loyola of Chicago in front of a sell-out home crowd on Saturday in a first place conference showdown. Valparaiso is in stop-the-pain mode, strong defensively while the Redbirds are just average offensively. If the Crusaders can't pull the outright upset they should be able to hang around and get the cover.
02-04-19	Louisville +4 v. Virginia Tech		72-64	Win	100	20 h 54 m	Show
Chris Mack is a great coach and I expect Louisville to put forth a maximum effort following Saturday's 79-69 home loss to North Carolina. There is no shame in losing to North Carolina. There is shame, though, in how meekly the Cardinals went down to defeat. Louisville is 8-1-1 ATS following a point spread loss. The Cardinals also have covered in six of their past seven road contests. Until falling to the Tar Heels, the Cardinals had won six straight Atlantic Coast Conference games, winning those games by an average of 18 points. So maybe they were due for a flat performance. I don't expect a second bad game in a row. Virginia Tech is coming off a bizarre 47-24 road victory against North Carolina State on Saturday. The Hokies only hit 36 percent of their shots, but still won by 23 points. Virginia Tech got away with not having senior point guard Justin Robinson against the frigid-shooting Wolfpack. But the absence of Robinson, who is out with an ankle injury, could really hurt the Hokies versus the Cardinals. Robinson is Virginia Tech's second-leading scorer and leads the team in assists.
02-03-19	Xavier v. Creighton -6		54-76	Win	100	9 h 58 m	Show
Creighton is undervalued given its tough Big East schedule. Xavier is not. The Musketeers are just bad this season especially on the road. Xavier is 1-5 SU and ATS in true road games this season. All of those road defeats have been by seven or more points. The Musketeers also are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road contests when going up against opponents who own a winning home record. The Bluejays average 82 points when playing at home. Xavier averages 68.1 points on the road. The Bluejays should be pumped, too, for this Sunday home game in a double revenge spot after Xavier won both meetings last season, including nipping Creighton by one point in Omaha.
02-02-19	Cal Poly v. CS-Northridge -8		65-83	Win	100	10 h 46 m	Show
Cal Poly is coming off a surpring 71-45 road win against UC Riverside two days ago. The Mustangs were 7-point 'dogs in that game. Cal Poly, though, is far from being a good team. The Mustangs were 1-9 going into that game. They are 2-7 ATS in their last nine lined games. They also are a very bad road team going 6-15-2 ATS during their last 23 away matchups. Northridge is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games. The Matadors defeated Cal Poly on the road earlier this season and have covered eight of the last 10 in the series.
02-02-19	Hofstra v. Northeastern OVER 147.5		61-75	Loss	-110	4 h 28 m	Show
Hofstra has gone Over in its last four games. The Pride has scored 84, 85, 86 and 87 points in these games. They have scored 84 or more points in eight of their last 10 games. Northeastern has gone Over in six of its last eight home games. The Huskies have gone Over in five of their last six overall contests. They have scored 78 or more points in six of their last nine games.
02-02-19	San Francisco v. St. Mary's -5		80-86	Win	100	4 h 10 m	Show
St. Mary's has covered the past five times hosting San Francisco. The Gaels have covered their past five home games and will be highly motivated to get revenge for a road loss to the Dons earlier this season. San Francisco has a revenge game on tap - playing Gonzaga on Thursday. The Gaels have won each of their last seven home games by 15 or more points. The Gaels are back to playing top-notch defense holding three of their past five opponents to 60 points or fewer.
02-01-19	Princeton -124 v. Columbia		55-43	Win	100	2 h 9 m	Show
Princeton is in excellent form winning five in a row. I'm going to ride the Tigers here as they have an excellent track record in these type of spots going 6-1 ATS the past seven times meeting an opponent that has a losing won/lost record. The Tigers are 5-2 on the road with a winning ATS away record, too. Columbia is 2-7 ATS at home versus a foe with a winning away mark. Princeton has dominated this series, too, covering eight of the last nine times.
01-31-19	Oregon v. Utah UNDER 136.5		78-72	Loss	-110	12 h 39 m	Show
Since losing star center Bol Bol for the season, Oregon has become a different team. The Ducks aren't who you think they are. They go motion a lot and eat up clock. The Under has cashed in three of their last four games. They have held four of their past five opponents to 61 points or fewer. Utah has picked up its defense. The Utes have not allowed any of their last five foes to score more than 70 points. Utah has had difficulty going against tight zone defenses. Oregon is playing far more zone since they no longer have rim protector Bol. These teams have a huge Under history, too, with 10 of the last 11 in the series going below the total.
01-31-19	Wofford v. Mercer +7.5		76-67	Loss	-110	7 h 35 m	Show
Wofford is in a flat spot coming off a three-game home sweep where it won two of those games in the final seconds. Despite those victories, the Terriers still have failed to cover in their last four Southern Conference games. Mercer is a bad road team, but good at home going 7-2. The Bears are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home contests. The Bears hung tough at Wofford in the first meeting losing, 78-74, as 12-point road 'dogs on Jan. 5.
01-30-19	Fresno State -12 v. Wyoming		75-62	Win	100	11 h 15 m	Show
I want Fresno State going for me after the Bulldogs were upset, 74-65, as 6-point road favorites at Colorado State in their last game. The Bulldogs have not lost two games in a row all season. Wyoming is 1-6 in the Mountain West having lost six of its last seven games. Wyoming has been hard hit by injuries and lacks the scoring to keep up with Fresno State. The Cowboys average just 65.6 points a game, which ranks 323rd in the nation. Fresno State is 7-1 ATS the past eight times facing a foe with a losing home record. The Cowboys have failed to cover eight of the last 10 times versus opponents with a winning record. They lack the manpower and experience to cope with what should be a fired-up and mad Bulldogs squad.
01-29-19	Tennessee v. South Carolina +9	Top	92-70	Loss	-110	17 h 3 m	Show
Tennessee is finding out that being the top-ranked college basketball team in the country carries a huge target. The Volunteers have had some narrow escapes in two of their last three games beating Alabama by just three points as 13-point home favorites and getting past Vanderbilt in overtime as a nine-point road favorite. I don't see the Volunteers being quite so fortunate on the road against a rugged, well-coached South Carolina squad that has been peaking since SEC play began going 5-1. Going back to last season, the Gamecocks are 11-2-1 ATS during their past 14 SEC contests. This is Tennessee's fourth SEC road game. The Volunteers have trailed in all three of their league road matchups. South Carolina is good at forcing turnovers and rebounding. The Gamecocks will be fired-up, too, under fiery Frank Martin. Tennessee is coming off its third-worst turnover game of the season committing 16 in their last game against West Virginia. South Carolina has covered in four of its last five games versus Tennessee.
01-28-19	Baylor +6 v. Oklahoma		77-47	Win	100	21 h 53 m	Show
Baylor is 4-1 since losing center and second-leading scorer Tristan Clark for the season with a knee injury. The Bears have come together following Clark's injury riding a season-high four game win streak. The Bears have knocked off ranked Texas Tech and won at Oklahoma State during this span. There are some key intangibles that point to the Bears keeping this one close - if not pulling the outright upset. Oklahoma just rolled past Vanderbilt, 86-66, this past Saturday in an SEC/Big 12 Challenge game. Vandy is coached by Bryce Drew, the younger brother of Baylor coach Scott Drew. So you know the older Drew has picked his brother's brain about how best to attack the Sooners. Not committing turnovers is one element. Vanderbilt committed 22 turnovers in its road loss to the Sooners. Baylor turned the ball over just eight times, tying a season-low, in beating Alabama, 73-68, this past Saturday. The Bears have gone more to playing four guards at one time since losing Clark. That could account for fewer turnovers. The Bears are playing tough defense holding their last four foes to 68 points a game. Baylor also leads the Big 12 in rebounding margin at plus 6.5. Baylor is used to playing on Monday after having just been in action on Saturday. They have done it the past two weeks, posting Monday road victories against Oklahoma State and West Virginia. The familiarity in this routine is a plus. The Bears won both of these games straight-up as an underdog. Baylor is 4-0 ATS during its past four away contests. The Bears also have covered in four of their last five road games versus the Sooners. The last time the Sooners played on less than two days rest was back in November. Oklahoma hasn't been playing that well either going 3-3 in its last six games.
01-26-19	Utah v. California UNDER 146		82-64	Push	0	8 h 39 m	Show
Utah has been playing strong defense. The Utes have held their last four foes to 70 points or fewer. California struggles offensively. The Golden Bears haven't reached 60 points during their last three games. They rank last in the Pac-12 in scoring and field goal percentage. The Under has cashed in four of the Golden Bears' last five games.
01-26-19	UNLV v. San Diego State -5.5		77-94	Win	100	4 h 49 m	Show
San Diego State is in a foul mood after blowing a 20-point road lead against Fresno State in its last game. The Aztecs are 15-6 ATS for 71 percent in their last 21 home games, including beating UNLV by 38 points last season at home. UNLV has covered just 25 percent of its last 41 away matchups. The Rebels have played an easy Mountain West schedule. So their record is misleading. Look for the Aztecs to expose the Rebels here.
01-26-19	Samford v. Furman -9		75-73	Loss	-105	17 h 50 m	Show
Furman is 10-0 at home with a winning home ATS mark. The Paladins have dominated this series winning the past six times. They beat Samford both times last season winning each game by double digits, including defeating the Bulldogs by 15 points on the road. The spot is bad for Samford. The Bulldogs are coming off a 107-106 overtime loss to Wofford as 12-point road 'dogs this past Thursday.
01-26-19	Dayton v. Fordham OVER 132.5		75-52	Loss	-109	15 h 43 m	Show
Dayton won last year's game, 80-70, against Fordham. The Flyers rank No. 5 in the country in field goal percentage. Fordham has some fancy defensive statistics that are out of whack because of the easy schedule it has played. The Flyers have gone Over the total in nine of their last 12 games. The Over has cashed in Fordham's past four games. The Over has cashed five of the last six times the two teams have met.
01-25-19	Butler v. Creighton OVER 153	Top	61-75	Loss	-110	19 h 44 m	Show
Creighton is the 19th-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 83.9 points a game. Yet the Bluejays were held to 69 points in an 84-69 road loss to Butler during the team's first meeting on Jan. 5. Creighton made just 7 of 27 3-point shots (25.9 percent), was 16-of-24 (66.7 percent) from the foul line and hit 45.1 percent from the floor. On the season, the Bluejays rank fourth in field goal percentage at 50.5 percent, are No. 2 in the nation in 3-point percentage at 43 percent and are 67 percent from the foul line. So I see vast improvement coming from the Bluejays at home in the rematch. Creighton has gone Over in six of its last eight home matchups. Butler ranks 213th in defensive field goal percentage and 190th in 3-point defense. The Bulldogs have played seven consecutive Over the total games. They are averaging 79.6 points in their last three games. Creighton had problems stopping Kamar Baldwin, Butler's leading scorer. He scored 28 points and dished off seven assists against the Bluejays. Since the team's last met, Butler forward Jordan Tucker has come on to average 16.5 points so the Bluejays just can't concentrate on Baldwin. The Bulldogs have been a strong Over team in Big East competiton with the Over cashing 13 of the past 16 times (81 percent) in league play.
01-24-19	Hofstra v. James Madison UNDER 144		85-68	Loss	-109	10 h 47 m	Show
Hofstra has gone Under in 13 of its last 16 road games. Look for that trend to continue here. The Pride has become zone-oriented and James Madison has had problems versus zone defenses. James Madison shoot just 43.3 percent from the floor. The Dukes have failed to reach 70 points in three of their last four games. Hofstra is capable of putting up big numbers so James Madison is not going to play up-tempo.
01-24-19	Oakland v. IUPU-Indianapolis UNDER 153		71-73	Win	100	9 h 15 m	Show
Nothing like Horizon League basketball - at 8 in the morning West Coast time. Yep these two teams tip-off in the morning local time, which automatically has me thinking Under the total. Oakland has scored 76 or fewer points in six of its last nine games. The Golden Grizzlies are perceived as a high-scoring outfit. Yet they have gone Under in 20 of their past 28 Horizon League games. Indiana-Purdue is averaging fewer than 68 points during its last five games if you discount the Jagaurs' 90-74 victory against Cleveland State. The Jaguars have been an Under team, too, in league play as eight of their past 11 Horizon League matchups have gone below the total.
01-23-19	St Bonaventure v. Massachusetts -3		65-51	Loss	-115	8 h 38 m	Show
UMass is stepping down in class and can take advantage of St. Bonaventure's youth. The Bonnies are dealing with injuries and have been horrible on the road going 0-8-1 ATS during their last nine road games. UMass has the better offense and is showing improvement on the defensive end. The Minutemen are averaging nearly six more points per game than St. Bonaventure.
01-22-19	Duke v. Pittsburgh +13	Top	79-64	Loss	-105	19 h 25 m	Show
Duke has a Dream Team of freshmen with RJ Barrett, Zion Williamson and Cam Reddish. But Pittsburgh also has some very good first-year players with Xavier Johnson, Trey McGowens and Au'Diese Toney. Duke is coming off a huge marquee home victory against Virginia this past Saturday. Pittsburgh is treating this as its biggest game of the season. The matchup has been sold out for weeks. Jeff Capel is a big reason why the Panthers are sky-high for this matchup. Capel played four seasons for Mike Krzyzewski and then coached under him for seven years while probably being Duke's top recruiter. Capel was named Pittsburgh's head coach last March. This is the first meeting between Capel and Krzyzewski. Capel knows the Blue Devils better than any opponent. He knows Duke's tendencies and has intimate knowledge of the plays the Blue Devils run. Duke is likely to be missing point guard Tre Jones, who was leading the Blue Devils in assists and was their fourth-leading scorer. He suffered a shoulder injury last week and is not expected to play. The Panthers have covered 76 percent of their lined games under Capel. Pitt is 9-3 ATS in its home games. The Panthers have a strong history of covering spreads versus elite competition going 9-2-1 ATS the past 12 times facing opponents with an above .600 winning percentage. I expect this game to be close throughout. But if Duke does build a double-digit lead the backdoor should be open for Pittsburgh because Capel and Krzyzewski are close friends. Krzyzewski would not want to embarrass Capel especially on Capel's home-court.
01-21-19	Nebraska v. Rutgers UNDER 136	Top	69-76	Loss	-109	15 h 57 m	Show
Nebraska gives up just 61.3 points a game. Only 11 teams give up fewer points per game. Rutgers is a far better defensive team than offensive one. The Scarlet Knights rank 67th in scoring defense holding foes to 66.8 points per game. The Scarlet Knights, though, figure to have problems handling the ball. Nebraska leads the Big Ten in steals per game. The Scarlet Knights remain without their leadings scorer, Eugene Omoruyi. He's out with a leg injury. Rutgers knows it can't win shootout games. So expect a slow tempo. That's been the pattern of the past three meetings between these two teams with the average combined score being just 121.6 points.
01-20-19	Illinois v. Iowa UNDER 158		71-95	Loss	-105	2 h 38 m	Show
These teams have a history of going Under when playing in Iowa and I see that continuing here. I can see Illinois' freshmen having problems against the Hawkeyes' defense at this venue especially coming off a high-scoring home win. The Under has cashed the last four times the Illinis have gone against an above .500 opponent. Iowa is off an upset road victory against Penn State. The Under has cashed eight of the last 10 times Iowa has played after it won its previous game.
01-19-19	Northern Colorado v. Weber State -4		64-78	Win	100	11 h 2 m	Show
These are the two best teams in the Big Sky Conference. Weber State is 6-0 versus Northern Colorado during the past three seasons in regular season action. The Wildcats, though, have revenge. Northern Colorado ended their season in the Big Sky Conference Tournament last season. That game was played at a neutral site. Weber State has won 86 percent of its conference home games under Coach Randy Rahe. The Wildcats have a size advantage and the superior defense. Weber State doesn't lack for scoring averaging 82.6 points and is a strong defensive rebounding team so it can limit Northern Colorado's second chance opportunities.
01-19-19	Florida International v. Marshall -8.5		97-105	Loss	-105	9 h 47 m	Show
This is going to be a track meet. I see Florida International being slow here after coming from 16 points down with 12 minutes to pull off a stunning, 77-76, upset road win against Western Kentucky this past Thursday. The Golden Panthers were 10-point underdogs in that game. Marshall is unbeaten in Conference USA at 4-0. They are 4-0 the past four times facing the Golden Panthers, covering five of the last six meetings.
01-18-19	St. Joe's v. St. Louis -8.5		57-68	Win	100	6 h 13 m	Show
St. Louis is the superior team and on a nice run winning five in a row. St. Joe's upset Davidson in its last game. However, prior to that, the Hawks had dropped four in a row. The Hawks are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games and are down their second-leading scorer, Lamarr Kimble, who recently suffered a hand injury.
01-17-19	BYU v. Pepperdine +3.5		87-76	Loss	-109	7 h 49 m	Show
Lorenzo Romar is doing an outstanding job with Pepperdine. The Waves have covered 10 of their 16 lined games, including going 5-1 ATS at home. Word is BYU could be missing its third leading scorer with guard Jashire Hardnett dealing with a hand injury. The Cougars have been brutal on the road covering just one of their last 11 away matchups. They have lost SU to Illinois State, Weber State and UNLV as road favorites already this season. Even in bad years, Pepperdine has been tough against BYU at home covering the past seven times.
01-17-19	Oregon v. Arizona UNDER 133.5	Top	59-54	Win	100	11 h 26 m	Show
After three straight Overs, look for Oregon to go Under the total in this matchup. The Ducks are going back to slowing things down following games against racehorses UCLA and USC. Arizona plays at a much more deliberate tempo than the Bruins and Trojans. Both Oregon and Arizona are outstanding defensive teams. Oregon ranks 24th in defensive efficiency and gives up the 35th-fewest points in the nation. The Ducks are without their star shot blocker injured center Bol Bol,but could get big man Kenny Wooten back. The Ducks apply tremendous pressure on the ball ranking No. 1 in the Pac 12 in forcing turnovers. The Wildcats rank 45th in scoring defense holding foes to 66.1 points. Two strong defenses in a game where the tempo should be slow. That spells Under.
01-16-19	Minnesota v. Illinois +2		68-95	Win	100	9 h 43 m	Show
Both teams aren't very good. But Illinois has played a tough schedule and has talented freshmen who are coming on. The Illini desperately need to win this home game. They draw Minnesota fat and happy after an easy win against Rutgers. The Gophers have a history of not covering against sub .500 teams going 6-20 ATS in that role the past 26 times. Illinois is good at forcing turnovers, are playing at home, in circle-the-wagons mode and won't be outclassed here.
01-15-19	LSU +4 v. Ole Miss		83-69	Win	100	7 h 34 m	Show
LSU showed it could win on the road beating Arkansas this past Saturday. The Tigers are a good value play against overacheiving Mississippi, which is in a letdown spot after breaking into the Top 25 for the first time in six years. The Rebels achieved this by beating two Top-15 opponents last week. Heady stuff, but the Rebels are not used to being the hunted now. The Rebels have been underdogs in their last three games, all SEC matchups. LSU has won five in a row. The Tigers are the more talented team with the size and perimeter shooting to knock off the Rebels straight-up.
01-15-19	Eastern Michigan v. Akron UNDER 128.5		49-51	Win	100	17 h 21 m	Show
These two teams met twice last season and the combined final score totals were 125 and 112 points, respectively. Both games went Under the total. This was the fifth time in the last six meetings the Under has cashed in this series. Expect that trend to continue in today's matchup. Akron is averaging 66 points in three MAC games this season. The Zips are shooting only 36 percent from the floor and 23.7 percent from 3-point range in conference play. Both teams play at a very slow tempo. The Under is 18-7-1 in Eastern Michigan's last 26 MAC contests. The Zips figure to struggled against Eastern Michigan's matchup zone defense given their shooting woes. Akron is playing solid defense this season ranking 50th in field goal percentage defense.
01-12-19	St. Mary's -5 v. Loyola Marymount		71-60	Win	100	18 h 12 m	Show
I'm not buying Loyola Marymount as a live 'dog here. St. Mary's is a traditional power having won 20 or more games in 11 consecutive seasons. The Gaels can't afford a loss here knowing Gonzaga is highly likely to win the West Coast Conference. Loyola Marymount's 12-3 record is bogus because of an easy schedule. The Gaels have dominated Loyola Marymount winning the past 10 times, including covering in the last five meetings. St. Mary's should have no problem taking advantage of the Lions' weak 3-point shooting.
01-12-19	Drexel v. NC-Wilmington -3.5		83-97	Win	100	15 h 6 m	Show
NC Wilmington is in circle-the-wagons mode having already lost two straight Colonial Athletic Association games at home. The Seahawks draw Drexel, a team they have beat six consecutive times, with the Dragons in a letdown spot. The Dragons just shocked Charleston, 79-78, as a 12 1/2-point road 'dog on Thursday. Drexel rallied from a 13-point deficit. Charleston had the second-longest home win streak at 22 in back of only Houston. NC Wilmington has covered five of its last six home games, while Drexel is 1-4 ATS following a victory.
01-10-19	Pepperdine v. Santa Clara -115		64-67	Win	100	7 h 31 m	Show
Santa Clara is underpriced here coming off a loss to Gonzaga. Certainly there is no shame in that. The Broncos had won eight of their last nine before that. They own victories at home against USC and San Diego. The Broncos can certainly handle Pepperdine especially in a revenge spot after the Wave knocked them out of the WCC Tournament last season by hitting an incredible 70 percent of their shots. Santa Clara has been strong against the spread all season covering 69 percent. I'll ride the Broncos here.
01-10-19	UCLA v. Oregon OVER 141.5		87-84	Win	100	19 h 57 m	Show
UCLA isn't a particularly good defensive team. Oregon is, or make that was. The Ducks rank first in the Pac-12 in scoring defense and defensive shooting percentage, but that is going to change. The Ducks lost their defensive presence with injuries to 7-foot-2 Bol Bol and 6-foot-8 Kenny Wooten. Oregon just surrendered 77 points to Oregon State in its last game. That was nearly four points more than the Beavers were averaging on the season. The Bruins are a different team, too, because of the coaching change from Steve Alford to interim coach Murry Bartow. In two games under Bartow, the Bruins scored 92 points versus Stanford and 98 against Cal. They are much more up-tempo under Bartow than they were under Alford, who is a Bobby Knight disciple.
01-10-19	Michigan -9 v. Illinois		79-69	Win	100	10 h 23 m	Show
Maybe things will turn around for Illinois. But probably not this season. The Illini are horrible. Fourth-ranked Michigan is far superior and doesn't lose focus. Even though they are home, the Illini may have trouble shaking a heartbreaking 68-66 road loss to in-state rival Northwestern this past Sunday. Michigan has dominated Illinois going 12-3-1 ATS in the past 16 meetings. The Illini are only 1-6 ATS in their past seven home games.
01-09-19	Ohio State v. Rutgers UNDER 134		61-64	Win	100	7 h 50 m	Show
Ohio State gives up the 31st fewest points in the country - and that's after surrendering 86 points to Michigan State in its last game. So expect the Buckeyes to really clamp down on Rutgers, which averages fewer than 69 points per game. These teams averaged 122.5 points during their two games last season. Both are contend to keep the pace slow. So Under is the way to look.
01-08-19	Texas A&M v. Kentucky -12.5	Top	74-85	Loss	-108	17 h 24 m	Show
Kentucky is in a kill position mood after getting upset, 77-75, as five-point road favorites against Alabama this past Saturday in its SEC opener. Wildcats coach John Calipari is putting a lot of emphasis on this matchup after that frustrating loss. The Wildcats are unbeaten at home and have won 79 percent of their games under Calipari following a loss, a span of 58 games. Texas A&M is not very good this season. That has become clear in the Aggies' last two games, both home losses. The Aggies lost 73-71 to Arkansas and before that fell to Texas Southern, 88-73, as 16 1/2-point favorites. The Wildcats are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games versus a foe with a losing road record.
01-05-19	Northern Illinois v. Ohio -3.5		72-66	Loss	-109	10 h 47 m	Show
Northern Illinois enters this matchup off a deflating 88-60 loss to eighth-ranked Michigan State last Saturday. The Huskies hadn't met an opponent that high ranked since 1996. The Huskies are 1-4 on the road this season. They didn't beat a MAC team on the road last season. You have to go back to Feb. 21 of 2017 to find the last time Northern Illinois beat a MAC team away from home. Ohio is 7-0 at home. The Bobcats have covered seven of their last 10 home games. The Bobcats defeated the Huskies, 78-68, at home last season. That was the fourth straight time they have covered against the Huskies.
01-04-19	Buffalo -11 v. Eastern Michigan		74-58	Win	100	12 h 49 m	Show
Eastern Michigan has been one of the worst college basketball teams against the spread this season failing to cover in eight of its nine lined games. The Eagles have lost six of their last eight games. They've been held under 70 points in four of those last six points. I think this line is short so I'm going to ride with 12-1 Buffalo, which has proven itself on the road covering five of six lined away games. The Bulls have defeated much better teams on the road, including West Virginia and Syracuse. The 20th-ranked Bulls should be focused since this is their Mid-American Conference opener.
01-02-19	Boise State -3.5 v. Wyoming	Top	69-55	Win	100	14 h 48 m	Show
Wyoming edged Boise State, 79-78, in overtime last season when it hosted them. Boise State got some revenge when it beat the Cowboys, 95-87, at home in the final regular season game last season. Now the Broncos have a great opportunity to get road revenge as the Cowboys have a cluster injury problem in their backcourt. Among Boise State's banged-up players are Hunter Maldanado and Jake Hendricks, both of whom average double figures in scoring. Madanado is out with a back injury, while Hendricks is deaing with a knee injury. The Cowboys have been one of the worst ATS teams in the nation covering only two of their first 12 lined games. Long-term, the Cowboys are 7-18-1 ATS.
12-29-18	Oregon v. Boise State UNDER 134		62-50	Win	100	16 h 22 m	Show
These same two teams met just two weeks ago and Oregon won, 66-54, at home for a combined total of 120. That stayed well under the 133 lined total. Oregon didn't have its leading scorer, center Bol Bol, for that game. He's out for this game, too. The Ducks average 61 points without him. Oregon is a strong under team. The Ducks rank 35th defensively and have slowed their pace. The under has cashed in five of their past six games. Boise State is a better defensive team than an offensive one. The Broncos don't push pace either. These teams are familar with each other. So I see another low-scoring game.
12-25-18	Indiana State +12 v. TCU		69-83	Loss	-108	20 h 54 m	Show
I like taking double-digits with a Missouri Valley Conference team especially in a rare nonconference revenge spot. Indiana State finds itself a big 'dog to TCU in the championship game of the Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii. The Sycamores rebounded from a 90-70 road loss to TCU on Dec. 16 to beat Colorado and UNLV in the tournament to reach the finals. The Sycamores were hoping to draw the Hornets Frogs - and they have. Indiana State played in the early Sunday semifinal game. So the Sycamores have a little added rest considering the Horned Frogs had to play in the late semifinal game against Bucknell Sunday. The Sycamores are the most accurate 3-point shooting team in the country. They've had one poor shooting game from beyond the arc - and that came against TCU. Indiana State was just 3-for-16 in 3-pointers against the Horned Frogs. The Sycamores are going to be highly motivated and they should shoot much better being ranked No. 1 in 3-point field goal accuracy.
12-22-18	Drake v. New Mexico State UNDER 143.5		66-63	Win	100	18 h 35 m	Show
Note this game is being played at a neutral site - the Orleans Arena is Las Vegas. Neutral sites often are plus for the Under since neither team is familar with the gym and basket. New Mexico State and Drake both are huge Under teams when playing at neutral sites. The Aggies have gone Under in 69 percent of their last 43 neutral site games. The Under has cashed 73 percent of the time in Drake's past 40 neutral site matchups. New Mexico State ranks 66th defensively. The Aggies held Kansas to 63 points. That was 18 points below the Jayhawks' scoring average. Drake is from the defensive-minded Missouri Valley Conference. The Bulldogs have held three of their last four opponents to 66 or fewer points. New Mexico State is not a good free throw shooting team.
12-20-18	Pepperdine v. Long Beach State -4		66-67	Loss	-109	18 h 44 m	Show
Long Beach is better than its 3-9 record may indicate. The 49ers are playing just their fourth home game. They are 2-1 at home, but 0-7 in true road games. Their road schedule has been tough, though, with losses to UCLA, USC, Mississippi State, Arizona State and Fresno State. The 49ers' schedule has been much more difficult than Pepperdine's. The Waves are 1-4 in their last five games, struggling on both offense and defense. Pepperdine has failed to reach the 70-point mark in their last three games. The Waves have yet to win on the road. They are are 5-15-1 ATS versus opponents with a losing record.
12-20-18	James Madison v. Fordham UNDER 130.5		48-75	Win	100	4 h 11 m	Show
Fordham Under has been an outstanding money-maker in non-conference games such as this one going 20-8-1 the past 29 times. Neither team pushes pace. Both are stronger defensively than on offense. So expect a slow, half-court type of game with defense getting the upper hand.
12-19-18	Auburn v. NC State OVER 157	Top	71-78	Loss	-110	9 h 17 m	Show
NC State ranks ninth in the nation in points per game at 88.9. Auburn is 19th averaging 84.8. Neither is going to back down. The pace is going to be fast and up-tempo. That's the way Wolfpack like it and Auburn coach Bruce Pearl has a history of obliging up-tempo teams, especially when he spots weakness. The Wolfpack are not strong in transition defense. Only twice in 10 games has NC State failed to reach 80 points. The Tigers have gone Over in each of their last two games and three of their last four.
12-15-18	Penn State v. NC State UNDER 147		78-89	Loss	-115	5 h 40 m	Show
Penn State has been an Under machine goine below the total in seven of its last eight games. The Nittany Lions have the defense to frustrate North Carolina State. They give up the 44th-fewest points in the country. The Under has cashed seven of the last nine times Penn State has met an ACC opponent. Note this game is at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, a neutral site that has a reputation for being tough to shoot in.
12-12-18	San Diego v. Oregon UNDER 143		55-65	Win	100	13 h 38 m	Show
San Diego is strong defensively. No surprise there. The Toreros rank 52nd in fewest points allow and have the 24th-best defense against 3-pointers. Their last three games have all gone Under. The Toreros understand their calling card is defense. So they don't look to run or push pace. Excellent style for an Under. San Diego should be even more methodical in its shot selection knowing Oregon ranks No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage. The question is will Oregon cooperate by not playing up-tempo? Judging by the Ducks' last two games and the switches they made they will. Oregon's pace was more deliberate in its last game, an 84-61 home win against Nebraska-Omaha that stayed under the total. Freshman Louis King made his season debut in that game after being out all season with a knee injury. He's 6-foot-9 and teamed well with 7-2 center Bol Bol to provide a strong rebounding and shot-blocking presence. The Ducks lost 65-61 on the road to Houston in their previous game before Nebraska-Omaha. That game, too, went well Under the total.
12-11-18	Colorado -5 v. New Mexico		78-75	Loss	-105	12 h 2 m	Show
I have great respect for New Mexico when the Lobos are playing at home like they are here. The Pit is a very difficult venue for road teams. Colorado has been weak on the road the past couple of seasons going 6-20 in true road games. Most of those losses, though, came to Pac-12 schools. The Buffaloes have a real shot to make the NCAA Tournament this season. Colorado has a balanced attack that is outscoring opponents by an average of 16.2 points. New Mexico is one of the weakest defensive teams in the nation ranking 351th in points allowed at 86.1 and is 334th in defensive shooting percentage at 48.7. According to the Pomeroy rating, Colorado ranks 60th in the country while New Mexico is 158th. The Buffaloes don't play again until Dec. 22. So they should be focused. The spread is short enough to back the Buffs.
12-08-18	Montana v. Cal-Irvine -3.5		51-60	Win	100	13 h 33 m	Show
Montana has been incredibly accurate from the field this season, but Cal-Irvine is home and is a strong defensive team. The Anteaters are experienced with 94 percent of its offense back. They already have defeated Texas A&M and St. Mary's this season along with a 20-point victory against Idaho. Montana has failed to cover during its past seven road games. The Grizzlies also are 1-5 ATS during their last six nonconference games.
12-06-18	Drake -130 v. Wisc-Milwaukee	Top	75-61	Win	100	11 h 39 m	Show
This is a short price to lay to not only get the superior team, but also get them when they are in a better situation even being the road club. Drake is the 191st best team in the country, according to the highly-respected Pomeroy Ratings. UW-Milwaukee is rated 272nd. The Bulldogs ranks 61st in the nation in scoring at more than 81 points a game. That's 12 points higher per game than UWM. Drake has won and covered its past four games. The Bulldogs have beaten Boise State, North Dakota State and Texas State. The Panthers have lost at home to North Dakota and squeaked past LIU Brooklyn in overtime at home. The Bulldogs have been idle since Saturday. The Panthers just returned from having played two games in Ireland, losing in blowout fashion to Stephen F. Austin and Buffalo.
12-05-18	San Francisco v. California +6.5		79-60	Loss	-107	7 h 20 m	Show
California has a lot youth, but the Golden Bears have five solid scorers and are excellent from 3-point range ranking ninth-best in the country in 3-point accuracy. This is a golden spot for the Golden Bears, who are home and taking on a San Francisco team that played in Ireland this past Saturday. It often takes a week to get rid of jet lag. Given Cal's shooting and the Dons' situation, taking these many points is worthy of an investment.
12-04-18	St. Peter's v. Clemson UNDER 136	Top	60-65	Win	100	9 h 49 m	Show
St. Peter's ranks 318th in the nation in scoring at 66.6. Clemson holds foes to 66 points a game. The last time the Peacocks went up against a major opponent they scored only 49 points versus Auburn. Clemson doesn't push pace like Auburn and other opponents St. Peter's has faced. So tempo should be slow. The Under is 35-15-1 in the Peacocks' past 51 road games for 70 percent!
12-01-18	James Madison v. Old Dominion UNDER 129.5		42-67	Win	100	9 h 12 m	Show
The Under has cashed the last four times between these two teams. Both games were low-scoring last season with Old Dominion winning 69-53 and 62-55. The Monarchs play at an extremely slow tempo. KenPom ranks Old Dominion's pace as the 13th slowest in the nation. James Madison is turnover-prone and can play slow, too. The Dukes' last two final scores are misleading because both games went into overtime.
11-27-18	Southern Illinois -1.5 v. Colorado State	Top	82-67	Win	100	21 h 39 m	Show
Colorado State went 11-21 last season. The Rams are 4-2 this season, but have played a weak schedule. Southern Illinois is far more battled tested having taken on Kentucky, UMass, Buffalo and Tulsa, who the Salukis beat by 10 points at neutral site Las Vegas during their last game. Southern Illinois is the deeper team, has played the tougher schedule, is more experienced and is better defensively. The Salukis give up eight fewer points per game than the Rams. These advantages are displayed in the latest Kenpom ratings, which has Southern Illinois ranked 114th and Colorado State rated 200th.
11-23-18	Arkansas State v. NC-Wilmington OVER 155.5		64-78	Loss	-109	8 h 29 m	Show
Arkansas State has gone Over the total in 11 of its last 13 games. This includes both lined games this season. The Red Wolves are a terrible defensive team, but like to push pace. The same with UNC Wilmington. Fast pace plus bad defense means lot of points. Wilmington has gone Over the total in 12 of its last 16 non conference games.
11-22-18	Michigan State v. UCLA UNDER 158		87-67	Win	100	10 h 28 m	Show
Look for defense to prevail in this marquee matchup. Both teams have been involved in high scoring games while playing inferior competition. Now each team faces a serious defense. Michigan State piled up 106 points versus Florida Gulf Coast and 101 points to Tennessee Tech. UCLA is 4-0 with victories against Purdue Fort Wayne, Long Beach State, St. Francis and Presbyterian. All of those victories came at home. Now the Bruins are meeting Michigan State at a neutral site, the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas.
11-18-18	Pennsylvania v. Kansas State UNDER 146.5		48-64	Win	100	9 h 35 m	Show
This total opened too high based on perception. Kansas State scored 95 points on Eastern Kentucky in its last game two days ago. But Penn is an entirely opposite opponent. The Quakers do not push tempo. The Wildcats are a more deliberate type team, too. This game is being played at a neutral site - the Virgin Island Sports Fitness Center where there have been more unders than overs historically at this venue.
11-16-18	Kennesaw State v. Missouri UNDER 133		52-55	Win	100	6 h 60 m	Show
Note this game is at a neutral site in the Virgin Islands in a gym unfamilar to both teams, which is a plus for the Under. Kennesaw State hasn't shown anything offensively scoring a combined 101 points versus Kansas State and Samford. The Under has cashed in seven of its last nine games. Missouri has become a very defensive team under Cuonzo Martin. Neither team plays at an uptempo pace.
03-27-18	Western Kentucky -120 v. Utah	Top	64-69	Loss	-120	18 h 44 m	Show
Surprised that Western Kentucky has reached the NIT semifinals? You shouldn't be. The Hilltoppers average nearly 79 points a game, have five solid starters and are 4-1 against Power-5 conference opponents with victories against Purdue, Boston College, Oklahoma State and USC. The Hilltoppers are road tested - defeating USC and Oklahoma State away during this tournament - and played a tougher preseason schedule than Utah, the lone remaining team from what has turned out to be a weak Pac-12 year. Utah has had a much easier NIT draw than Western Kentucky getting Cal Davis, a banged-up LSU team and weak foul-shooting St. Mary's squad that it beat in overtime. The much respected Pomeroy ratings rank Western Kentucky 45th in the country compared to Utah's 57th.
03-25-18	Duke -145 v. Kansas	Top	81-85	Loss	-145	28 h 12 m	Show
I want Duke going for me here. The Blue Devils are the best team, underline the word team, in the country this season. Not only are the Blue Devils a top-12 in the nation scoring and shooting team, but their defense has become elite. The Blue Devils' defense improved since Mike Krzyewski switched to primary zone with a few tweaks a couple of months ago. Since that time, the Blue Devils have ranked in the top-five in the country in defensive efficiency. Kansas needs to shoot very well to beat Duke. I don't see that happening especially given senior point guard Devonte' Graham's shooting woes. Graham has made just 14 of 33 shots from the floor for 33 percent while missing 12 of 17 3-point shots during the NCAA Tournament. The Jayhawks' defense hasn't been that crisp either. They've allowed 79 and 76 points in their last two games. The Jayhawks were able to get away with beating Penn, Seton Hall and Clemson despite these flaws. They won't be able to get away with Graham's poor shooting and lackluster defense versus Duke. I can see Kansas center Odoka Azubuike having problems and getting into foul trouble dealing with Duke's two low-post threats, Marvin Bagley and Wendell Carter. Bagley and Carter are considered to be top-eight picks in the NBA draft with Bagley possibly going as high as No. 2. They've helped Duke lead the nation in offensive rebounding. Duke got its mediocre game out of the way by beating Syracuse, 69-65, on Friday. Despite that non-cover, the Blue Devils are still 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games. They also have covered six of the past seven times following an ATS loss. The Blue Devils will find Kansas' zone easier to penetrate than Syracuse's.
03-23-18	West Virginia +5 v. Villanova	Top	78-90	Loss	-105	18 h 5 m	Show
This year's NCAA Tournament has been filled with upsets and extremely close games. I see that happening in this matchup. In most cases you have to go through stages to advance far in the NCAA Tournament. West Virginia reached the Sweet 16 last season. The Mountaineers still have their tremendous, tenacious pressing defense, but their offense is better this season. Jevon Carter is a tremendous all-around player, the kind of guard who can lead a team to the tournament championship. West Virginia averaged more than 80 points a game this season and its defense - both physical and athletic - will make things difficult for Villanova. The Wildcats have been bailed out so far in the tournament by extraordinary 3-point shooting. I don't see that continuing here.

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