This is a cheap price to get Stephen F. Austin in this first round Western Athletic Conference Tournament matchup. The Lumberjacks are 19-12 and the No. 6 seed in the tournament. They are a darkhorse to win the tourney.

Utah Tech is 13-18. The Trailblazers won just five of 18 conference games. They are 2-5 in their last seven games. 

Stephen F. Austin had no problem handling the Trailblazers when they played in Utah during the regular season, winning 85-72. 

This isn't the St. Peter's team of last season. The Peacocks haven't been awful as some might have thought they'd be in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference, but they are far from good after losing so much from last year. 

I don't see the Peacocks getting past Fairfield in this MAAC Tournament. 

St. Peter's has the worst offense in the conference. Nationally, the Peacocks rank 352nd in scoring, 361th in field goal percentage and 357th in 3-point percentage. 

Fairfield isn't much better offensively, but the Staggs play tough defense and just scored 92 points against Quinnipiac. St. Peter's is averaging 58.5 points in regulation during its last six years. 

The Stags defeated St. Peter's in both regular season meetings, winning 56-52 on the road on Jan. 15 and 67-55 at home on Dec. 3. 

The 12-17 Peacocks nipped Siena, 73-72, in overtime during their last game. St. Peter's, however, is 0-11 ATS after covering in their previous game. 

Fairfield is 19-7 ATS the past 26 times against below .500 foes.

Florida State coach Leonard Hamilton may have said it best when asked about the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament, which begins today. ''We have our work cut out for us with who we are this particular year,'' Hamilton said.

That's certainly true. Florida State is 9-22. The Seminoles are 2-9 in their last 11 games. They have failed to cover in eight of their last nine games. I don't see them upsetting Georgia Tech in this ACC tournament opener.

The Yellow Jackets have gotten hot, winning five of the last six games. They have covered in each of their last eight games.

Georgia Tech has momentum and its confidence up. Skidding Florida State just lost by 22 points to Virginia Tech as a 10-point road 'dog this past Saturday.

Backing the Yellow Jackets on the money line should be a safe play.

Idaho State is 11-20. I'm surprised the Bengals even have that many wins because they are terrible.

Montana has underachieved in going 16-13, 10-7 in the Big Sky. But the Grizzlies have a huge talent edge here along with momentum. The fourth-seeded Grizzlies are very live to capture the Big Sky Conference Tournament.

Montana is 7-1 in its last eight games. Idaho State is 2-5 in its last seven games. Josh Bannan and Aanen Moody give the Grizzlies the two best players on the court.

The Grizzlies were 2-0 against Idaho State during the regular season winning 84-55 at home and 69-61 on the road.

Don't overthink this one. Louisiana Lafayette is 25-7 and 13-5 in the Sun Belt Conference. South Alabama is 19-15 and 9-9 in the Sun Belt. Lafayette has the superior record and is the better team.

So I like the Ragin' Cajuns to win this game. That's why I'm going with them on the money line.

Lafayette won both regular season meetings against South Alabama beating the Jaguars, 79-76 and 74-64. The Ragin Cajuns average nearly eight more points per game than the Jaguars.

Barring the unlikely possibility of winning the Big Ten Conference Tournament, Wisconsin better win this game if it has any chance of earning an NCAA Tourney bid.

The Badgers are 16-13 with a lot of close losses, including a 63-61 home loss to fifth-ranked Purdue this past Thursday.

Wisconsin should take care of business against Minnesota, a team it has defeated 14 of the last 16 times, including the past five. The Badgers are 5-0 ATS following a loss.

Minnesota, 2-16 in the Big Ten, is in a rare fat-and-happy mood having ended a 12-game losing streak with a 75-74 home upset win against Rutgers this past Thursday.

Back when UNLV was playing much better, the Rebels defeated Nevada, 68-62, at home on Jan. 28. Since then UNLV only has managed to beat three of the four worst teams in the Mountain West Conference. The Rebels were a no-show in their last game, a 91-66 home loss to Utah State this past Wednesday.

If it wasn't for a last-second tip-in in a 54-53 home win against Air Force, the Rebels would be 0-5 in their last five games.

So I don't see the Rebels staying with revenge-minded Nevada.

The 22-8 Wolf Pack need this game to have a good chance of landing an NCAA Tournament berth. Nevada is a perfect 15-0 at home. The Wolf Pack will have a sellout crowd at home on senior night playing their arch-rival. They are the superior team catching a downtrodden UNLV team. Expect a double-digit Wolf Pack victory.

I'm very surprised Kansas City opened as a 'dog to Nebraska Omaha in this Summit League Tournament matchup.

UMKC is 11-20. Nebraska Omaha is 8-22. The Mavericks have lost 10 of their last 11 games. UMKC beat them in both meetings during the regular season, 64-61, on Jan. 26 and 75-59 on the road Dec. 31.

The Kangaroos give up nearly nine points fewer per game than Nebraska Omaha. They also are a much stronger rebounding team than the Mavericks.

UMKC has the best player on the court, too, in Rayquawndis Mitchell.

Mercer has become much improved defensively. So this is a good matchup for the Bears because The Citadel is very bad offensively and not good either on defense giving up nearly 75 points a game.

The teams just met on Feb. 25. Mercer held the Bulldogs to 50 points in a 22-point victory. Mercer also defeated The Citadel in the first meeting, 74-65, on the road.

It's clear who the better team is here.

Cal Irvine is 36 teams above UC Riverside in the KenPom rankings. I agree with that assessment. I have the Anteaters as the better team, too. They destroyed the Highlanders, 83-64, as 6 1/2-point home favorites on Feb. 11. 

Cal Irvine has the second-best offense in the Big West and surrenders fewer points per game than UC Riverside. 

The Anteaters also have dominated the Highlanders winning and covering during the past five meetings. They've also gone 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS the last eight times when playing at UC Riverside. 

These two teams met twice during the regulation season. There were 127 and 122 points scored during those two games.

Now Illinois-Chicago and Missouri State are meeting again with the stakes much higher - the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. So the defensive intensity is going to be even greater.

The game is being played at a neutral site, Enterprise Arena in St. Louis. This venue is set up for hockey not basketball. Historically there have been a lot of Unders because of the tough shooting background.

Illinois Chicago ranks 289th in scoring, 315th in field goal percentage and 336th in free throw percentage. Missouri State has the 32nd best defense in the country holding foes to 63.7 points a game.

The Bears, though, average only 65.8 points per game and are even worse from the foul line than Illinois-Chicago. No Missouri Valley team plays at a slower tempo either than Missouri State.

Rider is a much better team than St. Peter's. Rider is 12-6 in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference while St. Peter's is 6-12 in league.

It's not just the conference records either. The Broncos buried the Peacocks, 82-61, at home on Feb. 3.

Both teams are tough defensively. But St. Peter's can't score. The Peacocks average 61.3 points a game, which ranks 354th. They also are 362nd in field goal percentage and 358th in 3-point shooting percentage in addition to being well below average in free throw shooting.

I'm not putting any stock in St. Peter's being home either. The Peacocks are 1-4 ATS in their last five home contests while Rider has covered its last five away games.

If you're into bad Atlantic 10 Conference games then this is a good matchup. I'm involved because I don't believe St. Joe's should be a home 'dog to Richmond.

The Spiders could have the worst offense in the A-10. They also are terrible on the road failing to cover in 10 of their last 11 away games. Overall, Richmond is 2-10 ATS in its past dozen games. 

St. Joe's, by contrast, is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games. The Hawks outscore the Spiders and do a good job of not turning the ball over. They often are undervalued, like this time, going 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games. 

The Big South Conference Tournament isn't exactly a big deal. But good spots can be found. This is one of them as High Point is playing much better than Charleston Southern and is the superior team so the price certainly is right to back the Panthers.

High Point brings momentum into the tournament winning four of its last five games while going 5-0 ATS.

That's not the case for Charleston Southern. The Buccaneers are 2-11 SU, 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games.

Charleston Southern is the worst defensive team in the Big South. How bad defensively are the Buccaneers? They rank 304th in scoring defense nationally, 328th in defensive field goal percentage and 330th in 3-point defense.

The Panthers are 9-2 ATS the past 11 times when facing a below .400 opponent, which the 9-20 Buccaneers are. High Point beat Charleston Southern, 81-73, at home when the teams last played on Feb. 6.

This line is out of whack. Both teams are 20-9 and battling for third place in the Mid-American Conference. Ball State State was a three-point home favorite against Akron on Jan. 6 and won, 70-63.

Now look at the line.

This should be a very close game. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Cardinals win again. They are in better current form although they got a jolt in their last game losing as road chalk to Eastern Michigan this past Saturday. Before that defeat, though, Ball State had won seven of its past eight games.

The Cardinals should be highly-focused following that wake-up call. They are 16-5 ATS (76 percent) the past 21 times following a loss. Ball State also has covered four of the last five times against opponents with a winning percentage above .600.

Akron, by contrast, is 1-7 ATS the past eight times when it has met a foe with a winning percentage above .600. The Zips' 14-1 home record looks impressive, but they have a losing ATS mark on the season and are 3-3 during their last six games.

The teams have similar statistics. Ball State, however, ranks 43rd nationally in 3-point percentage. That's nearly 100 teams better than Akron in that key category.

This is an opening round game of the Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament. Both teams are each 17-14. But sources tell me Queens is the right side. Early money has come on Queens, too. Queens defeated Florida Gulf Coast, 84-82, when the teams met late last month. Queens outscored Florida Gulf Coast by seven points in the second half. 

Even given home-court advantage, I don't think Stanford should even be favored against Washington let alone laying mid-sized points like this.

So I'm on the Huskies. Washington is 16-13 and 8-10 in the Pac-12. Stanford is 11-17 and 5-12 in the Pac 12.

Washington is playing much better than the Cardinal, too. The Huskies have won three in a row. They are 6-0 ATS in their last six games. Stanford has lost five of its last six games, including the past three.

The teams met on Jan. 12 in Seattle and the Huskies easily won, 86-69. The Cardinal could connect on just nine of 29 3-point attempts. It wasn't a fluke. The Huskies rate seventh in the country in 3-point defense while Stanford is 306th in 3-point defense.

I find this line to be way off. Utah Valley is the best team in the Western Athletic Conference at 12-3. Abilene Christian, by contrast, is 7-9 in league.

The Wolverines shouldn't lack motivation after getting upset on the road by Tarleton State in their last game. Utah Valley had won five in a row until that defeat. The Wolverines are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 away games.

The 21-7 Wolverines are a better rebounding team than Abilene Christian and much better in defensive field goal percentage. Utah Valley ranks fifth in the country in defensive field goal percentage. Abilene Christian ranks 353rd.

The Wildcats are 4-8 in their last 12 games.

It's not too much to ask of Utah Valley just to win the game straight-up so I'm backing the Wolverines on the money line.

Just three games ago, Nevada handled Fresno State winning, 77-66, as a nine-point home favorite. Fresno State is playing better and is home. But the point spread is still too short.

Fresno State only averages 61.7 points. That's 351st. Nevada should reach 70 points just like it did two weeks ago against the Bulldogs. Fresno State is 1-6 when giving up 70-plus points.

The Bulldogs' key is their pressure defense. They rank second in the Mountain West Conference in creating takeaways. Nevada, however, ranks 27th in the nation in fewest turnover percentage. They turned the ball over just 10 times in the first meeting against the Bulldogs.

After two close calls in their last two games, look for Virginia to cover this point spread margin with a double-digit victory.

Boston College is in a letdown spot after an upset road win against Florida State.

The Cavaliers have dominated this series winning 10 of the last 11 times, including 76-57 on Jan. 28.

This is the most points Iowa State has gotten all season. T.J. Otzelberger could be the best coach in the country. So I'm going to accept this many points.

Texas is a top-25 offense. Iowa State is a top 15-defense. I trust Otzelberger and the Cyclones' defense to keep this close.

Texas was fortunate to get past Oklahoma, 85-83 in overtime, this past Saturday as a 10 1/2-point home favorite. The Longhorns are 7-21 (25 percent) ATS the last 28 times following a victory.

Iowa State handled the Longhorns at home. The Cyclones beat them, 78-67, on Jan. 17. They can hang here.

I'm expecting a much higher-scoring game than the first meeting, which Marquette won, 69-58, back on Dec. 16. Ryan Kalkbrenner, Creighton's leading scorer, missed that game. The total on that matchup was 153 1/2.

Early money on this total has been to the Under, knocking it down to where I see value going Over.

Marquette is the 19th-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 80.7 points. The Golden Eagles rank fifth in the country in field goal percentage.

Creighton averages 76.3 points a game, which ranks in the top 70.

Since upsetting Tennessee, Missouri has lost and failed to cover its last two games. Mississippi State is just as good - if not better - than the Tigers. So I'll take the Bulldogs getting this many points.

The Bulldogs have come on after a slow SEC start to go 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven league games, including posting road victories against South Carolina, Arkansas and Mississippi during their last three SEC away games. The Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their past five road contests.

The teams met on Feb. 4 and Mississippi State held Missouri to a season-low in points in a 63-52 home victory. Take away their victory against Tennessee and the Tigers would be 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games.

There is one team in the Big Ten Conference who is an autofade - Minnesota. The Gophers are 1-13 in the league. They haven't been competitively on the road lately.

The Gophers lost by 35 points to Rutgers and by 20 points to Northwestern in their last two away games. Minnesota is 4-9-1 ATS in their past 14 road contests. 

I see this as a kill spot for the host Illini. Minnesota has lost nine in a row. It's also a difficult situational spot for the Gophers as because of previous postponements this will be just their third game in 16 days. 

Delaware State defeated South Carolina State, 88-85, in overtime on the road in the first meeting on Jan. 23. Now the Bulldogs have to travel to Dover to play the Hornets.

I like Delaware State's chances at this number considering South Carolina State has lost 11 consecutive road games. The Bulldogs have lost their past three away contests by an average of 18.6 points.

The Hornets are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games. They give up nine fewer points per game than South Carolina State.

I find this line short so I'm backing Howard, which has won nine in a row. The Bison have covered all but one of these games during their win streak.

Morgan State is 11-25 ATS in its last 36 home games. The Bears have failed to cover in five of their last six games.

This has been a road team series with the visitor cashing seven of the last eight times.

Boise State is very tough at home. UNLV is a sliding team with a bad recent history against the Broncos.

So I find this a simple choice: Lay the points with Boise State.

The 20-6 Broncos have won their last 11 home games with all but one of those victories coming by nine or more points. They are 10-3 in the Mountain West Conference.

UNLV is 16-10 with a 5-9 Mountain West record. The Rebels have lost three of their past four games, including home losses to San Jose State and Fresno State as mid-sized favorites. They are 5-9 SU, 6-8 ATS in their last 14 games.

Boise State is 5-1 in its last six games. The Broncos have held opponents to fewer than 60 points a game when playing at home, while averaging more than 74 points shooting 49 percent from the floor and 77 percent from the foul line.

The Broncos have dominated the Rebels winning the past six meetings. This includes an 84-66 road win on Jan. 11.

Going to the added board for this one. 

Both teams are playing well. But I see Penn having the greater urgency being in revenge mode and trailing Yale by one game in the Ivy League standing.

The Quakers have won their last five games. They are 4-1-1 ATS during their past six games and have the best player on the court, Jordan Dingle. He leads the Ivy League in scoring by a wide margin at 24 points per game.

Penn has revenge for a 70-63 loss to Yale earlier this season. I make the game pick, so getting this many points is a bonus and puts me in play.

Maybe it's because Southeast Missouri State has lost three in a row. But I find this line to be well short of my power rankings for these two teams.

The Redhawks are at least a dozen points better than Eastern Illinois given home-court advantage. SE Missouri State has won the last five in the series, including defeating the Panthers, 79-68, on the road Jan. 28.

SE Missouri State is in a five-way tie for second place in the Ohio Valley Conference at 8-6. Eastern Illinois is 9-18 overall and 5-9 in the OVC.

The Redhawks lead the conference in scoring, field goal percentage and have the best turnover margin. They have the best player on the court in Phillip Russell, who leads the Ohio Valley Conference in scoring at 19 points per game while also dishing off 5.2 assists per game.

I don't see Eastern Illinois staying with SE Missouri State. The Panthers average fewer than 70 points per game. They rank last in the OVC in free throw percentage, rebounding margin and 3-pointers made.

I am getting behind New Mexico. The Lobos are in stop-the-pain mode having dropped three in a row. This is their time to get right hosting 7-17 Wyoming, the worst team in the Mountain West Conference.

Wyoming has lost and failed to cover in its last three games suffering double-digit defeats to San Jose State, UNLV and Boise State during this span. The Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their past six road games. New Mexico is 5-1 ATS the last six times hosting opponents with a road percentage of less than .400.

The Cowboys rank 249th in scoring defense and 311th in defensive field goal percentage. That's bad news going against the high-scoring Lobos. New Mexico averages 81.6 points a game, which ranks 16th in the nation. The Lobos also are 11th in the country in field goal percentage.

Illinois is stepping up, winning eight of its last 10 games. But Penn State is tough at home and this is a circle-the-wagons game for the Nittany Lions.

Penn State has dropped four in a row. The latest being a loss - but a cover - in a road loss to Maryland this past Saturday. The Nittany Lions have won seven of their last eight home games. During this span, the Nittany Lions have defeated Michigan, Indiana and Iowa. Their lone home defeat during this time frame was to Wisconsin in overtime.

The Nittany Lions are 11-4 ATS following a loss.

Penn State should play the Illini with confidence. The Nittany Lions won the first matchup, winning by 15 points on the road in mid-December.

Given how bad SMU is on the road, I find this line to be short. Wichita State is the superior team and home. That's huge because SMU is 1-8 SU, 1-7-1 ATS away from home this season.

The Mustangs average fewer than 70 points per game. They rank among the bottom 50 teams in field goal percentage, free throw percentage and 3-point shooting.

Wichita State is 14th in the nation in defensive field goal percentage.

The Shockers have defeated the Mustangs six consecutive times, including 73-65 on the road last month.

Much respect to Northwestern for its 17-7 season. But I don't see the Wildcats keeping this one close against top-ranked 23-2 Purdue. 
The Boilermakers haven't lost to Northwestern in nine years, winning the past 11 games. 

Purdue has too much balance and depth for the Wildcats. Led by 7-foot-4 center Zach Edey, the Boilermakers are serious contenders to win the national championship. Northwestern is nowhere near that level. 

Beating disappointing Wisconsin and Ohio State, which has lost 10 of its last 11 games, during the past week on the road does not elevate the Wildcats into elite atmosphere. 

Hawaii has the better record. Hawaii is the better team. The key question is can the Rainbow Warriors cover this number?

I say they can. Home-court is huge here. Hawaii is 15-3 at home. Cal State-Fullerton is 3-10 on the road. The Rainbow Warriors have won their home games by an average of nearly eight points per game. This has been a home team series with the host covering five of the past six times.

Cal-State Fullerton doesn't have enough scoring to stay within this number. Hawaii ranks 19th in the country defensively allowing 62 points a game. The Titans average fewer than 69 points per game.

The Rainbow Warriors also have revenge motivation. The Titans beat them, 79-72 in overtime, when they hosted them on Jan. 7. Hawaii plays much better at home.

Nevada is extremely tough at home. I know first hand having covered games at Lawlor Events Center on the Reno campus during my sportswriting days. I don't see Fresno State staying within double-digits on the road against the Wolf Pack.

The Wolf Pack average nearly 79 points at home, outscoring  opponents by an average of 14 points. They are 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games at Lawlor. 

Fresno State doesn't have the scoring to keep up. The Bulldogs average just 62 points a game, which ranks 353rd in the country. They are terrible at making 3-pointers and bad at defending against 3-pointers. 

The Bulldogs are 3-10 on the road. They have failed to cover in nine of their past 13 away contests. I'm not fooled by Fresno State's two game win streak, upsetting UNLV and defeating San Jose State. During their previous three games before those wins, the Bulldogs lost to Wyoming on the road, fell to Utah State at home and lost to Boise State on the road. They averaged just 56 points during those three matchups. 

Nevada has won and covered three in a row. In their last four home games, the Wolf Pack beat Utah State by 15 points, defeated New Mexico by three in overtime, knocked off San Diego State by nine and rolled past Air Force by 20 despite being in a letdown spot. Utah State, New Mexico and San Diego State are far superior to Fresno State. 

The Wolf Pack are 20-8 ATS the past 28 times at home when going against a foe with a losing road record. 

No surprise that Memphis ranks 25th in scoring averaging 80.2 points. The Tigers have Kendric Davis, play fast and feature a deep bench. They are averaging 86 points in regulation during their past three games.

It's South Florida who has caught the oddsmaker off guard with its up-tempo style. The Bulls don't play slow anymore. It's not a fluke that the Over has cashed in 17 of their last 21 games. The Over also has cashed in nine of South Florida's past 12 home games.

There is a blueprint for this matchup. It came on Dec. 29 in Memphis when the Tigers hosted South Florida. There were 179 points scored in Memphis' 93-86 victory. Neither team could stop the other especially on the defensive glass.

The Bulls aren't going to back down from Memphis especially in revenge mode and playing at home. The Tigers should be pumped for a big scoring performance, too, after having their five-game win streak snapped by underdog Tulane at home this past Saturday in an overtime loss.

Don't count Wisconsin out. The Badgers, who have made the NCAA Tournament 22 of the past 23 seasons, have been one of the more disappointing teams but are showing life now. The buy sign is on them. They are healthy and off a confidence-building, 65-60, road win at Ohio State this past Thursday.

Wisconsin has defeated Northwestern 17 of the past 20 times at Kohl Center. The Wildcats have averaged just 51.8 points during those games.

This is a huge revenge game, too, for the Badgers. Northwestern defeated Wisconsin, 66-63, at home on Jan. 23. That snapped a seven-game Wisconsin win streak versus the Wildcats.

You have to go back to 2018 to find the last time Northwestern defeated Wisconsin in Madison. The Wildcats last swept a season series against the Badgers in 1996.

The Wildcats are a terrible shooting team ranking 341st in field goal shooting and their defense is showing slippage giving up an average of 77 points in their last two games against Michigan and Iowa.

Northwestern also is 1-4 ATS the past five times facing an above .500 opponent.

Both teams are struggling offensively as the rugged Big Ten season hits the first weekend of February.

Ohio State has failed to break the 60-point barrier in three of its last five games. The Buckeyes are averaging 63.3 points in their last three games.

Michigan is averaging 63.4 points during its last five games.

The Wolverines have held three of their last five foes to 64 or fewer points. Ohio State defends the 3-point shot well.

So I see defense carrying the day in this one.

Michigan State is strong defensively. No surprise there. Rutgers is super strong defensively ranking in the top-six nationally in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage.

The combination of outstanding defenses and this intense matchup being played at Madison Square Garden in New York should produce a very low-scoring game - and an Under. College teams not used to playing at Madison Square Garden often have trouble scoring there because of the large arena and shooting background. It is a tough, foreign court in a city full of distractions.

Michigan State is averaging only 62 points during its last two games.

The teams met on Jan. 19 at Michigan State. The Spartans won, 70-57. That's a total of 127 points. Note there were nine unanswered garbage points scored during the final minute that inflated that final score.

San Diego State couldn't beat Boise State last season and the Aztecs can't cover this inflated number against the Broncos this season.

Boise State held San Diego State to a puny 48.6 points a game in going 3-0 versus the Aztecs last season. Boise is just as strong this season while I have doubts about the Aztecs following their nine-point loss to Nevada this past Tuesday.

The Broncos and Aztecs are tied for first in the Mountain West Conference. Points should be at a premium in this matchup so I'll gladly take this many.

Boise State is playing extremely well going 8-2 in its last 10 games. Its only two losses during this span occurred on the road to New Mexico in overtime by two points and to Nevada on the road by two points.

The Broncos are proven road warriors going 19-6-1 in their last 26 away matchups for 76 percent. They've proven themselves on the road against top competition, too, going 21-8-1 ATS versus opponents with a home winning percentage greater than .600. San Diego State is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 home games.

Look, Gonzaga just isn't that dominant this season. Yet the oddsmaker continues to inflate the Bulldogs. This game is another example.

Much is made of Gonzaga having its 75-game home winning streak ended on Jan. 19 by Loyola Marymount. Less publicized is the Bulldogs being 5-14-3 ATS during their past 22 home games.

Santa Clara is 16-7 and deserving of being a shorter underdog than this point spread. The Broncos nearly upset Gonzaga in the first meeting on Jan. 7, losing 81-76, covering as an 8-point home 'dog. Santa Clara is 7-1 ATS the past eight times when playing an above .500 team.

Queens is the 21st-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 80.9 points. That's six points more per game than what Lipscomb averages. 

Queens has won two in a row, while scoring at least 81 points in three of its last four games.

Lipscomb has lost and failed to cover its past two games. 

Power rating-wise, I have Queens as the better team. So getting this many points makes this a worthy investment. 

I'm surprised William & Mary didn't open a mid-range favorite. I rate the Tribe much better than Hampton.

William & Mary has a superior record - 9-14 overall, 4-6 in the Colonial Athletic Association - compared to the Pirates' 5-17 mark and 2-8 CAA record.

The Tribe also proved that by defeating the Pirates, 81-65, as an 8-point home favorite on Jan. 11.

William & Mary is statistically better than Hampton, too, on both sides of the ball. The Pirates rank last in the CAA in shooting percentage and second-to-last in defensive field goal percentage. They also rate last in the league in rebounding margin. But where William & Mary holds a significant edge is 3-point shooting. The Tribe is 38th in the country in 3-point accuracy while Hampton is 344th in 3-pt defense.

The major concern about the Tribe is their lack of road victories. Some of this concern can be eased by the Tribe upsetting UNC Wilmington as a 12-point road 'dog on Jan. 14. Hampton hasn't been a good home team either going 1-5 ATS in its last six home contests.

I'm going to ride Lehigh's momentum and revenge in this matchup against Army.

The Mountain Hawks have won eight in a row. They are 8-2 at home. Army has lost three of its last four games.

Lehigh has a much stronger defense than Army. The Mountain Hawks also have played the tougher schedule.

Army hosted Lehigh on Dec. 30 and won 80-78. Army shot better than 54 percent from the floor and 52 percent from 3-point range yet merely won by two points at home.

The Panthers are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 road contests. They are 5-2 in road games this season with four of those wins coming versus ACC foes.

Pittsburgh is off a 71-68 home win against ranked Miami this past Saturday. North Carolina hasn't played in more than a week. The rest is good for the Tar Heels, but it could come with some rust. The Tar Heels are 2-5 ATS the past seven times when meeting above .500 opponents.

The Panthers beat North Carolina, 76-74, when the teams met on Dec. 30. Jamarius Burton had a monster game with 31 points.

Kudos to San Diego State on being ranked 22nd in the latest AP Top 25 poll. The Aztecs hold the top spot in the Mountain West Conference. But I don't see them beating Nevada in Reno.

The Wolf Pack are 10-0 at home. They are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 home games.

San Diego State defeated Nevada, 74-65, at home three weeks ago. The Aztecs got the Wolf Pack to play their game. That won't be the case in Reno. The Wolf Pack should also shoot much better. They shot under 40 percent from the field in that first meeting missing 20 of 25 3-point shots.

Anytime the better team is getting points, I'm seriously interested. That's the case here with Northern Illinois. The Huskies are 8-13, 4-4 in the Mid-American Conference. Western Michigan is 6-15, 2-6 in the MAC.

Northern Illinois is 3-1 in its last four games, with all three victories during this span coming as an underdog. This includes an impressive 10-point victory against 17-4 Kent State a week ago.

Western Michigan, by contrast, has lost four in a row. The Broncos also played Kent State and lost by eight points to the Golden Flashes.

Numerous trends all point to the Huskies as the right side. Northern Illinois has covered 15 of its last 22 road games and is 9-2 ATS the past 11 times versus sub .500 opponents.

Western Michigan is 3-9 ATS the last dozen times meeting a foe with a winning percentage below .400.

The underdog is 8-1 ATS the past nine times these teams have met.

This may seem like a lot of points to lay, but I find the gap between these two Summit League teams much wider than the point spread. So I'm on Oral Roberts.

The Eagles have the offense to easily blow out South Dakota, which is weak defensively. Oral Roberts averages 84.5 points. That's fifth-best in the country.

South Dakota ranks 264th defensively allowing 72.4 points per game. The Coyotes have even a worse statistical ranking in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Eagles reach triple-digits in this home game against the 10-12 Coyotes, who are 2-7 on the road.

Oral Roberts, which has won 17 of its last 18 games, is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 home games when facing a foe with a road winning percentage of less than .400. South Dakota has failed to cover in eight of its past 11 away games.

I don't see the Eagles keeping up with Oral Roberts. They've been held under 65 points in four of their last seven games despite playing in the Summit League, which is a high-scoring conference.

Slow tempo. Bad offenses. That adds up to an Under in this matchup despite the low total the oddsmaker has set.

Cal State-Fullerton ranks third in the Big West Conference in defensive efficiency. The Titans just held Cal-Irvine to 15 points under its season average in a 62-61 win two days ago. Cal Poly is not Cal-Irvine. The Mustangs average 61.9 points, which is 354th in the country. The Under is 46-21 in their last 67 games, including 6-1 during their past seven home games.

Fullerton has gone Under in 11 of its last 16 games. The Titans are 306th in shooting percentage. Cal Poly is a very strong defensive rebounding team and holds opponents to fewer than 66 points a game.

This is a circle-the-wagons game for Wisconsin, which is 1-5 in its last six games.

The Badgers, though, are home - where they historically play much better - have their leading scorer Tyler Wahl back and are in revenge mode from a 79-69 loss suffered to Illinois three weeks ago.

The Badgers should get a boost, too, with starting guard Max Klesmit expected to play.

Samford could still be suffering the after effects from a tough 91-84 overtime road loss to Furman this past Wednesday night in its biggest game of the season.

Wofford, on the other hand, is off a confidence-building underdog road victory against Tennessee-Chattanooga this past Wednesday that halted a two-game losing streak.

The Terriers have been strong in an underdog role this season covering six of eight.

New Mexico has scored 76 or more points in 10 of its last 11 games. The Lobos are the 14th-highest scoring team in the nation. They should have no problem getting their points against Air Force, which is slipping defensively. 

The Falcons have surrendered at least 70 points in seven of their last eight games. They just gave up 82 points to San Jose State this past Tuesday. That was 14 points above San Jose State's season scoring average. 

Air Force should get its share of points, too. New Mexico is last in the Mountain West Conference in two-point defense. The Over has cashed in eight of the Lobos' last 11 home games. 

I want Kent State going for me at home and off a stunning upset road loss to Northern Illinois this past Tuesday.

The Golden Flashes had won 10 in a row until losing, 86-76, to the Huskies as a 13-point favorite.

That was Kent State's first MAC loss in seven games. The Golden Flashes are 16-4 overall and unbeaten in nine home games.

Buffalo is a mediocre 10-10 with a 2-6 road record. Kent State is 8-1-1 ATS the past 10 times hosting foes with losing road records.

San Diego is 9-12, including 2-5 in the West Coast Conference. But that's still better than Pepperdine, which is 7-14 and 0-7 in the WCC.

The Toreros are a horrendous defensive team. They can score, though. ranking 48th in scoring. They also are 23rd in free throw accuracy. Pepperdine shot 56 percent from the floor against San Diego when the teams met two weeks ago in San Diego. The Toreros still won, 92-89, covering as 2 1/2-point favorites. I see this point spread being too lopsided in favor of Pepperdine.

San Diego should have plenty of energy. The Toreros last played a week ago. They lost at Portland, 88-83, in that game. Pepperdine just played Portland, too, on the road this past Saturday. The Waves lost, 91-76, to Portland. Pepperdine has failed to cover now in seven of its last eight games.

I'm not going to make out that 7-13 SMU is a good team. The Mustangs aren't. But they have been playing solid defense holding their last three opponents to an average of 63 points in regulation.

Memphis is not a good defensive team and the Tigers don't cover point spreads - 1-8 ATS in their last nine games.

The Tigers have failed to cover the last seven times they've played a sub .500 opponent. 

South Carolina has proven to be tough on the road. Just ask Kentucky. The Gamecocks upset the Wildcats, 71-68, at Rupp Arena on Jan. 10. South Carolina hasn't won since losing three in a row - all at home.

So going back on the road may be a good thing for the Gamecocks. They've covered their past four road games.

Florida has been playing well. However, the Gators aren't likely to have starting 6-foot-9 forward Alex Fudge, their second-leading rebounder. That would hurt their size advantage forcing them to employ four guards.

The Gators are off a narrow victory against Mississippi State. They are 5-14 ATS following a victory.

Samford is the top team in the Southern Conference at 8-0. Furman is 6-2 in the league. Samford has won eight in a row. This should be a very close game so I find this point spread to be out of whack in this mid-range.

Samford is the superior defensive team. The Bulldogs also have back guard Ques Glover, their leading scorer. He returned to action this past Saturday after being out since Nov. 30. Glover really bolsters Samford's rotation. I don't believe the oddsmaker took that into enough consideration in making this line.

Furman has failed to cover six of the last eight times it has met an above .500 opponent.

This has been a road team series, too, with the visitor covering eight of the last 11 times.

Certain high profile schools get too much respect from the linesmaker. North Carolina falls into that group.

Yes, the Tar Heels are 14-6. However, they are 7-12-1 (37 percent) ATS.

Syracuse is coming on winning and covering five of its last seven games. The Orange are 10-3 SU, 9-4 ATS during their past 13 games. Only one of those losses was by more than seven points. The Orange are averaging 79.5 points in their last four games. They've scored at least 78 points in 10 of their past 12 games.

The Orange are at their point spread-best against strong competition covering five of the last six times when taking on an opponent with a winning percentage above .600.

North Carolina has been at its worst on the road. Not counting neutral site games, the Tar Heels are 1-4 SU and ATS away from home. Their only road victory came against 2-17 Louisville. North Carolina is 1-6-1 ATS in its past eight road contests versus foes with a winning home mark.

I want Davidson in circle-the-wagon mode after four straight losses. The Wildcats covered in their last two games losing to George Mason by two points on the road and to Dayton on the road by seven points. The Wildcats last played a week ago. They should be pointing to this matchup. 

I'm not a fan of LaSalle. The Explorers rank 330th in field goal percentage and aren't good on the defensive end either. The Wildcats are the better free throw shooting team, too. 

Nothing like watching the two worst teams in the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference to induce a deep sleep.

How can 3-17 South Carolina State be a mid-range favorite? The answer is being at home and playing Delaware State. The Hornets are in the discussion for worst Division I team in college basketball at 1-16. They've lost 15 in a row.

Delaware State is horrible both offensively, averaging 61.6 points, and defensively giving up 75.4 points.

Yes, this is bad on bad. But South Carolina State is in better current form averaging 81.2 points in its last five games. Delaware State is averaging 57 points during its last seven games. The Hornets are 6-3 ATS in their past nine games. Delaware State has failed to cover in its last eight games.

Underrated 11-9 Temple hasn't lost a game by more than 20 points this season. I understand the Owls haven't met a team as good as Houston. But I do see this line as being inflated.

The Owls are playing well with five wins in their last seven games going 6-1 ATS during this time frame. They are 12-3-1 ATS in their past 16 road contests when matched against a foe with a home winning percentage of more than .600.

Houston hasn't looked sharp in two of its last three home games. The Cougars struggled to beat South Florida, 83-77, as a 23 1/2-point favorite and only beat Central Florida, 71-65, as a 15 1/2-point favorite.

Florida Atlantic is a top-50 scoring team averaging 78 points on the season. The Owls have gone Over 68 percent of the time during their last 32 road games.

UTEP also is a good shooting team. The Miners have broken 80 points in two of their last three games.

The Over has cashed 13 of the past 16 times following a UTEP victory. The Miners scored 81 points in a 20-point victory against Florida International in their last game.

Rutgers is having a strong season breaking into the Top-25. But the Scarlet Knights have never won at Michigan State. I don't see that changing here.

The Spartans are off tough losses against Illinois and third-ranked Purdue, 64-63. This is a circle-the-wagons game for the Spartans and they are home.

Michigan State has played very strong offenses this season yet rank 36th in defensive efficiency. I see the Scarlet Knights have problems scoring.

Vanderbilt is battle-tested, at home and draws the Crimson Tide being possibly distracted by Darius Miles being kicked off the team after he was arrested and charged with murder in a shooting death of a young mother.

Alabama is playing well, but is in a letdown spot after burying LSU, 106-66, this past Saturday.

Vanderbilt has played three straight ranked teams. The Commodores are better than their 9-8 record. Just ask 15th-ranked Arkansas. Vanderbilt defeated the Razorbacks, 97-84, at home this past Saturday.

Alabama has been at its point spread-worst when playing on Tuesday going 1-10 ATS the past 11 times.

It shouldn't surprise that Idaho is last in the Big Sky Conference at 0-5. The Vandals are 6-12 overall.

Montana State is second in the Big Sky at 5-1. The Bobcats are 12-7 overall. They have covered the past six times against opponents with a losing record.

Montana State is playing well, winning and covering each of its last four games. Each of the victories was by double-digits.

By contrast, Idaho has lost six in a row with five of those defeats occurring by double-digits.

Look for this pattern to continue here.

UC Riverside is 5-1 in the Big West Conference and 12-6 overall. Cal Poly is 1-4 in the conference and 7-10 overall. The Highlanders have covered the last nine times against sub .500 opponents.

The Highlanders have held their last four foes to an average of 59 points. Cal Poly is one of the worst offensive teams in the nation, averaging 61.3 points. Riverside averages 11 more points per game than Cal Poly.

The Mustangs are averaging only 53.4 points during their past four games.

Princeton had won four in a row until suffering a two-point road loss to Brown this past Saturday. The Tigers have covered six of their last seven road games.

Princeton is much stronger defensively than Penn, giving up eight fewer points per game than the Quakers.

Penn has dropped two of its last three Ivy League games.

I'm going to accept this many points with Ohio State in stop-the-pain mode. The Buckeyes have lost three in a row. However, two of those defeats were in the final seconds in a two-point loss to Purdue and a three-point defeat to Minnesota as big favorites. Ohio State is 11-5 ATS following a loss. The Buckeyes also beat Rutgers earlier this season.

Rutgers is a bit fat and happy after pulling out a 65-62 win against Northwestern this past Wednesday.

This is USC's first home game since Dec. 18. I'm expecting a big performance from the Trjoans, who lost the past two games of their three-game Pac-12 road trip.

USC has won seven of its eight home games. Colorado's only road victory came against weak Stanford. The Buffaloes have suffered road defeats to Grambling, Washington and California. Colorado was double-digit favorites against Gambling and California.

This easily is the Buffaloes' toughest road task. I'm not looking for them to pass it. USC is the better defensive team and a much better free throw shooting team.

SIU-Edwardsville is a terrible 3-point shooting team, but a much improved defensive team. The Cougars rank 82nd in defensive field goal percentage. 

Abilene Christian hasn't lost consecutive games since Nov. 23, a span of 10 games. I like the Wildcats to bounce back in a big way against UT Rio Grande following a tough 74-72 home loss to Southern Utah, the highest scoring team in the nation. The Wildcats held the Thunderbirds 13 points under their season average, but shot 16 fewer free throws than Southern Utah and missed 20 of 25 3-point shots.

The Wildcats like to play a methodical style stressing defense. That should work far better against struggling Rio Grande, which has lost four in a row.

Abilene Christian ranks in the top 90 in scoring defense giving up 65.4 points per game. The Vaqueros rank 351st defensively, allowing 78.8 points. The Wildcats also commit fewer turnovers and are the better 3-point shooting team.

Seton Hall tends to play to the opposition's level. The Pirates are 1-6 ATS the past seven times facing foes that have a winning percentage below .400. 

Georgetown fits that category. The Hoyas are desperate for a victory having lost seven in a row. 

The Hoyas actually average more points per game than Seton Hall although they play far worse defense.

This has been a 'dog series with the underdog covering four of the last five times.

Crunching numbers on this one and find this total to be too high.

If you discount its last game against Tulane, Tulsa would be averaging 63.6 points in its last 10 games. 

Temple is averaging 64.1 points in its last six games taking out its game against Maryland Eastern Shore. 

The Over is 5-1-1 in Tulsa's last seven home games. Temple has been a big Under team on the road with the low side cashing 68 percent of the time during its past 68 away contests. 

This number came up short, according to my power rankings so I'm on host Morgan State, which is 5-2 ATS in its last seven home games.

The Bears are playing their best ball of the season winning three in a row.

South Carolina State is 3-14. The Bulldogs have been blown out in their last three games, losing by double-digits each time. They could be the worst defensive team in the nation giving up 86.3 points.

California is beginning to play better going 2-1 in its last three games. The Bears have gotten a boost from transfer guard DeJuan Clayton, who has played in the last two games after missing the first 13 due to a hamstring injury. 

But mainly this is a fade on Stanford. The Cardinal aren't that much better than Cal, certainly not where this point spread is at. 

The Cardinal are 5-9 SU and 6-8 ATS. They haven't played a hard schedule either. 

This has been an underdog series with the 'dog covering 10 of the last 14. That's the way I'm going.

This is too many points for Iona to be laying in this Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference battle. 

Both teams are solid defensively giving up 66 points per game. 

This has been an underdog series with the team getting points covering the past five times. 

Illinois has been up and down this season owning wins against UCLA and Texas while losing by 15 points at home to Penn State and falling to Missouri, 93-71.

But I see the Illini showing up here against Northwestern, a team they have beaten eight straight times.

I don't trust Northwestern once Big Ten Conference play gets going. The Wildcats didn't look good in a 73-57 home loss to Ohio State this past Sunday.

I just see this as too many points for Missouri State to be laying given the spot and series history.

The underdog has covered 69 percent of the last 27 meetings. Missouri State is in a letdown spot after a 52-49 win against Drake on New Year's Day in perhaps its biggest win of the season.

The Purple Aces have yet to win in the Missouri Valley Conference this season. They should play hard here.

Iowa State's defensive pressure should keep the Cyclones in this one - if not pulling the outright upset.

The Cyclones are playing well with a three-game win streak. They rank ninth in scoring defense giving up just 57.3 points per game, while forcing 20.8 turnovers a game. That's the most among major-conference schools.

Oklahoma has a minus 1.9 turnover margin, which is the worst in the Big 12. Iowa State leads the Big 12 and is second in the country with a plus 7.8 turnover margin.

This is a very low total as befitting two elite defenses. Both teams are 11-2. Mississippi State gives up the fourth-fewest points in the nation at 54.5 points. Tennessee surrenders only 53.2 points per game, third-best in the country.

Scoring is going to be at a premium here so I'll gladly accept this many points with the underdog Bulldogs in what shapes up to be a very low-scoring matchup.

Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last five games versus above .500 foes.

Other than perhaps Grambling State, the Southwestern Athletic Conference isn't very good at all. So my eyebrows are raised when I see one team favored by so much against another team.

Arkansas Pine Bluff and Alabama A&M are each 4-9. I have them close to even power rating-wise. So I see this as too many points for the Bulldogs to be laying.

Arkansas Pine Bluff is the better defensive team ranking 207th allowing 69.6 points a game. Alabama A&M gives up 76.8 points a game, which ranks the Bulldogs 338th. The Golden Lions are above average in 3-point defense. That's a key because the Bulldogs' strength is 3-point accuracy. 

The Golden Lions are 5-1 ATS the past six times meeting a sub .500 opponent. The Bulldogs are 6-13 ATS the past 19 times when facing a foe with a below 40 percent winning percentage. 

I don't trust Florida to step up in class here. The Gators have lost neutral-court games to West Virginia, Xavier and Oklahoma by nine points in their last game eight days ago.

The Gators' up-tempo style isn't a good fit against Auburn's stubborn defense. The Tigers rank in the top-15 in defensive efficiency, 3-point defense and blocked shots.

The Tigers are 7-0 at home where they've been for the last week after an impressive, 84-61, road win against Washington. 

Notre Dame has failed to cover its last five games. I see the Irish being overvalued again in this matchup.

The Irish rely on their 3-point shooting. They rank 23rd in the nation in 3-point percentage. But Jacksonville can frustrate Notre Dame with its defense. The Dolphins give up the 13th-fewest points in the nation at 58.9 and rank 27th in 3-point defense.

Notre Dame has a far bigger game on deck than this non-conference matchup against an Atlantic Sun Conference opponent taking on No. 14 and ACC leader Miami on Friday.

The Irish are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games. The Dolphins are 11-5 ATS when meeting an above .500 foe.

Kent State checks a lot of boxes for me. I was high on the Golden Flashes and the MAC entering the season and I still feel that way. Kent State ranks 88th in scoring at 77.5 points a game and rates 38th in scoring defense holding opponents to 62 points a game.

The Golden Flashes have an excellent all-around player in Sincere Carry, have major experience on New Mexico State and are the superior free throw shooting team.

I make Kent State nearly a double-digit favorite so I'll lay this small number of points.

Middle Tennessee State giving up a season-high in points while being upset at home, 82-73, by Tennessee-Chattanooga in its last game raises a red flag for me.

This is a short road trip for Murray State. I see the Racers keeping this close if not pulling the outright upset. Murray State is 7-3 ATS the last 10 times facing an above .500 foe.

The Racers average more points per game than Middle Tennessee State and are a far better free throw shooting team than the Blue Raiders, who rank 335th in free throw percentage making only 63.8 percent of their free throws.

St. John's has had only one true road game - and the Red Storm lost that one to Iowa State, 71-60, earlier this month. 

I don't trust the Red Storm away from home especially against Villanova, which is coming on. 

The Wildcats are 4-0 since big man Cam Whitmore, their third-leading scorer, returned four games ago. The Wildcats have knocked off Oklahoma, Boston College, Penn and Saint Joseph's during this span. 

Both Pittsburgh and Syracuse have stepped up their games after slow starts. I just see the Orange's defense and home-court being too much for Pittsburgh to overcome.

The Orange are 5-0 this month with two of the wins coming against Notre Dame and Georgetown.

Syracuse ranks No. 1 in the ACC in defensive field goal percentage and blocked shots. The Orange also are averaging nearly eight steals a game.

I don't see the Panthers being efficient enough with the basketball and hitting enough outside shots to loosen up the Orange inside.

The teams open Summit League play here and I see value backing UMKC at home in a pick'em range. The Kangaroos are the better defensive team.

South Dakota is a terrible shooting team and a terrible defensive field goal percentage team. The Coyotes are in bad form, too, giving up an average of 83 points per game during their last three games. They are 1-7 ATS in their last eight lined games and have failed to cover in five of their past six road games.

This should be a wild game with lots of points. Belmont is the 11th-best 3-point shooting team in the nation. Tennessee-Chattanooga ranks 333rd in 3-point defense. The Mocs are terrible in defensive transition. 

The tempo should be fast here, which is the way Belmont likes it. So I'm going to take this many points with the Bruins, who should be live the entire game with their 3-point accuracy. 

This may be the only time that I lay points with Manhattan all season. But it's justified because the Jaspers are hosting Central Connecticut State.

Manhattan is 3-6, but has a winning ATS mark. The Blue Demons have a losing ATS mark and are 1-10 overall.

Giving home-court edge, I would rate Manhattan as double-digits better than Central Connecticut State.

The Jaspers are much better statistically. The Blue Demons rank 342nd offensively and 336th in defensive field goal percentage.

Too many points for Louisiana Lafayette to be laying in this neighborhood rivalry matchup. McNeese should draw plenty of fan support with tickets specially priced at $5. 

The Ragin Cajuns have a far superior 9-1 record. But the 3-7 Cowboys have played a tough schedule and have a winning point spread mark. During their last five games, McNeese State played Iowa State, Northern Iowa, who they upset as 15 1/2-point road 'dogs, Tennessee, Tennessee-Martin and Baylor.