I don't get Cal Poly being favored here even though the Mustangs are home.

Portland State has a winning record, has beaten Oregon State twice and is the 10th-highest scoring team in the country averaging 85.3 points.

The Vikings have covered 10 of their last 14 road games. They are battle tested having played some tough teams, including Gonzaga, and hold a backcourt edge with Jorell Saterfield and Cameron Parker. Those two are combining for nearly 32 points a game.

Cal Poly shoots much worse from the floor than Portland State and ranks 313th in scoring. The Mustangs average 19 fewer points per game than the Vikings.

I don't see High Point getting enough respect with this point spread against Queens, which is in its first season of Division I.

High Point averages 86.3 points a game. The Panthers also rank in the top 35 in 3-point defense.

The Panthers held their own against UNLV. They've beaten North Florida, Elon, Tennessee State, Central Michigan and Furman in impressive fashion during their last game, 85-82, as an 11 1/2-point road 'dog.

Queens has played an easier schedule. The Royals' last game, for instance, was against Paine.

Kevin Willard has Maryland off to an 8-0 start in his first year as the Terrapins head coach. But now Maryland has to play at Wisconsin. This should be a defensive dogfight.

Both defenses are strong. Wisconsin held Southern Cal to 59 points, 11 under the Trojans' season average. The Badgers also held Kansas to 63 points in regulation, 14 under the Wildcats' season average. The Terrapins' offensive numbers are padded by having played several weak teams. 

Maryland ranks 14th in 3-point defense. The Badgers have been making 3's at a higher than normal rate for them. 

This total is short considering how bad these two defenses are in what shapes up to be an up-tempo matchup. 

Northern Illinois is stepping way down in defensive class after playing Northwestern, Georgia Tech and Sam Houston. It's a red flag defensively for the Huskies that they surrendered 83 points to Illinois Springfield, a non-division team.

Idaho has gone Over in 10 of its last 13 home games. It's easy to see why given how bad its defense is. The Vandals rank fifth-from-the-bottom in defensive efficiency. They are giving up an average of 81.5 points in their last three games playing Utah Tech, Cal Poly and Pacific.  

VMI isn't a great team by any stretch. But the Keydets average 77.3 points and should not be an underdog to Presbyterian.

Presbyterian, losers of six in a row, could be the worst shooting team in the country. The Blue Hose only average 60.6 points. They are shooting 38.1 percent from the field and 23.1 percent from 3-point range. They lack size, too, and are terrible from the free throw line at 62.7 percent. 

I think the oddsmaker is way off making the Blue Hose a favorite especially in this mid-size price range. 

T.J. Otzenberger turned Iowa State into one of the best defensive teams in the country last season with the Cyclones giving up 63 points a game and finishing in the top-five in overall adjusted defense, according to KenPom ratings. 

Guess what? The Cyclones are showing definite signs of being even better defensively this season.

Iowa State has held its first three opponents to an average of 45 points a game, best in the nation. 

The combination of Villanova's slow pace, Iowa State's great defense and this game being played in neutral site Portland, Ore., should mean another Under.

The Wildcats are trying to rebuild their offense having lost key playmakers Collin Gillespie and Jermaine Samuels. Villanova is playing at a slow, deliberate pace. The Wildcats don't have to worry too much about Iowa State heating up from 3-point range. The Cyclones rank 339th in 3-point shooting. 

Meeting on a neutral court is another plus for the Under. Iowa State has gone Under in its last five neutral site games. Villanova has gone Under in eight of its last 10 neutral site matchups. 

Michigan barely escaped Ohio at home in its last game, winning in overtime this past Sunday as a 14 1/2-point home favorite. 

Now the Wolverines are laying a big number against Jackson State, who has two very good players and plays in the underrated Southwestern Athletic Conference. I find this number to be too large so I'm on the underdog Tigers. 

Jackson State is 0-3 with losses to Abilene Christian, Tulsa and Little Rock by an average of six points. The Tigers are just two years removed from dominating the SWAC. Now they are rebuilding under first year head coach Mo Williams, a former NBA All-Star. Williams has two excellent players to build around in Ken Evans and Trace Young, who transferred from Wyoming. Jackson State is averaging 75.3 points a game. 

Michigan could have fewer fans than normal for this home contest due to Thanksgiving break. The Wolverines' focus may be off, too. 

Kudos for Louisiana Lafayette getting off to a 4-0 start. The Ragin' Cajuns, though, have played an easy schedule and all of their games have been either home, or on a neutral court.

I don't see the Ragin' Cajuns pulling a road upset against SMU. The Mustangs have won 40 of 46 games at Moody Coliseum during the past four seasons. They are 20-2 (91 percent) in home non-conference games during this stretch.

SMU is getting scoring from Zhuric Phelps and rebounding from Efe Odigie, who leads the AAC in rebounding.

The oddsmaker has yet to effectively price SMU. They've underestimated the Mustangs in this spot while overrating Lafayette.

Central Michigan went 7-23 last season under its first-year coach Tony Barbee. The Chippewas aren't going to be very good this year either. A lone victory against Eastern Illinois is not impressive.

High Point has one of the best scorers in the nation, Jaden House. He's averaging 22.8 points. High Point is the ninth-highest scoring team in the nation. The Panthers have too much firepower for Central Michigan.

I find this line short as Nevada should beat Texas Arlington by double-digits.

The Wolf Pack rank 19th in defensive field goal percentage. Texas Arlington lost its three best scorers from last year's squad, which lost 18 of 29 games. The Mavericks' scoring numbers are skewed because they played two non-Division I cupcakes.

By most ratings, the Mavericks are worse than any team in the Mountain West Conference. So Nevada should have no problem here.

This is too generous of a point spread so I'm getting involved with the home underdog. 

Both teams are 3-0. This is Utah State's first road game of the season and biggest test.

Steve Lavin has raised the talent level at San Diego bringing in several transfers from the Pac-12. One of the Toreros' victories this season is against Florida Gulf Coast, a team that upset USC by 13 points on the road.

San Diego ranks 31st in the country in 3-point shooting. The Toreros also are 12th in turnover percentage. That's an impressive combination of limiting turnovers while being highly accurate from beyond the arc. 

Troy may have a difficult time getting up for this game after upsetting Florida State on the road this past Monday as a double-digit 'dog.

That victory has caused this line to be inflated. Merrimack is at Troy's level. Merrimack has a good player in Jordan Minor.

Troy was picked to finish 10th in the Sun Belt Conference.

This game is being played at a neutral site. Troy is 1-5 ATS in its last six neutral site games.

Yes, No. 3 ranked Houston is good, real good. But look at this spread. It's too inflated.

Texas Southern, a Houston school, is going to be highly motivated not to get embarrassed by its next door neighbor. Texas Southern isn't good, but is capable of springing an upset. Just ask Arizona State. The Tigers upset them as 11-point home 'dogs this past Sunday. 

The Tigers have been reliable in this role covering 13 of the last 18 times on the road against an above .500 opponent. 

The 3-0 Cougars have yet to be tested. They rolled past three easy foes and have a much tougher challenge up next next when they go to Oregon to play the Ducks. So their focus is likely to be at 100 percent. 

I have St. Peter's power-rated higher than this spread number. The Peacocks have been an excellent ATS team going 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 games for 78 percent. They have covered in their last six home games. 

West Virginia is off a very satisfying, 81-56, victory against Pittsburgh in its Backyard Brawl matchup. I don't see the Mountaineers being as intense as Morehead State for this matchup.

The Eagles have been pointing to this rematch after West Virginia eliminated them, 84-67, in a first round NCAA Tournament game last year. 

Morehead State is off an impressive, 62-55, victory against Bellarmine. 

Denver is going to get some culture shock meeting Sacramento State after facing bad defensive teams Idaho and non-Division I Colorado College. The Hornets play at a snail's pace and specialize in defense under new coach David Patrick.

The Hornets don't have much offense so they use this style. They are averaging 57.5 points in their two games.

I don't think the oddsmaker is fully factoring in Sacramento's slow tempo and commitment to defense while overrating Denver's offense.

Denver has had two easy games so far this season beating Idaho and Colorado College. The Pioneers struggled against Idaho failing to cover as 10-point home favorites. They face stronger competition here against Sacramento State.

The Hornets are defensive-minded under new coach David Patrick. Their half-court ways and height should bother Denver, which has faced two easy defenses.

Sacramento State is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games going back to last season. Denver has failed to cover in its last five lined home games.

Missouri didn't cover against Penn in its last game this past Friday, winning 92-85 as a 12 1/2-point home favorite. I had Penn in that game with part of my handicap being the Tigers are breaking in a new roster and coach so it's going to take time for them to jell.

I'm going to double down and fade the Tigers again believing this point spread is too high.

Missouri is 2-0, but giving up 88 points a game. Both of its previous opponents - Penn and Southern Indiana - shot 50 percent from 3-point range. Lindenwood made 12 of 26 3-point shots in its last game.

Now that some teams have played a game, you can start to develop a feel for teams. Maryland opened with a 71-49 home win against Niagara on Monday. Western Carolina also opened its season on Monday covering as 13 1/2-point road 'dogs in a 68-55 loss to Georgia.

Despite their 22-point victory, the Terrapins are not in rhythm yet with a new coach, Kevin Willard, and a roster that is stacked with transfers.

This is what Willard was quoted as saying after Maryland's victory against Niagara: ''It has been a crazy seven months to put together this roster and get these guys playing. We're not close to being good yet. ...''

Western Carolina was encouraged by its showing against Georgia. The Catamounts are excited to be facing another major conference team in Maryland. They want to prove something. The Terrapins won't be taking this early non-conference matchup as serious. Willard's agenda against this overmatched opponent isn't to run up a score, but get a feel for his entire roster and figure out his rotation.

Admittedly this is anything but a marquee matchup. But I don't think it's too much to ask Marist to defeat American at home in the season-opener for both teams.

Marist is a middle-of-the-road MAAC team. The Red Foxes were 14-16 last season. 

But they are still better than American, which went 10-22 last season and finished last in the Patriot League.

Pro prospect Omari Moore is back for San Jose State. That makes the Spartans respectable.

The combination of Moore and the Spartans' size advantage along with home-court should enable San Jose State to cover this number.

Georgia Southern has regressed under third-year coach Brian Burg. The Eagles have won just 13 games during each of the last two seasons. They were 5-11 in the Sun Belt Conference last season.

San Jose State had a dismal conference record, too, last season. But the Spartans play in the stronger Mountain West Conference. They will be better this season.

Despite all the upsets, the NCAA Tournament championship game comes down to two familiar teams - North Carolina and Kansas.

No surprise the Jayhawks have reached the title game being the No. 1 Midwest seed.

Kansas deserves to be here. The Jayhawks rank in the top 30 in scoring and have the 20th best 3-point defense. They blew out Villanova in their semifinal game Saturday. The Jayhawks can be devastating both in the paint and from the perimeter.

North Carolina isn't as strong defensively and relies on its 3-point shooting. So this isn't a good matchup, nor spot, for the Tar Heels. North Carolina has way overachieved being a No. 8 seed. The Tar Heels reached their pinnacle with an upset semifinal victory against arch-rival Duke.

Each of the Tar Heels' last five defeats have come by nine or more points. So a Kansas blowout would not be a surprise.

Duke often is overvalued. I find that to be the case once again here. 

The Tar Heels knocked off Duke, 94-81, as 11-point road 'dogs on March 5 in Mike Krzyzewski's final home game. So I'm not buying into the Tar Heels being an underdog in New Orleans on a neutral court. If Duke were laying four or more points to North Carolina during the team's past 10 meetings, the Blue Devils would be 2-8 ATS. 

North Carolina has come on strong, winning 16 of its last 19 games. The Tar Heels have defeated many elite foes during this span, not just Duke. Among North Carolina's victories were wins against UCLA, Baylor, Virginia, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Marquette and surprising St. Peter's.

Duke ranks 13th in the nation in field goal percentage at 48.9 percent. Yet Duke has shot far better during its four NCAA Tournament games never dipping below 52 percent from the floor. The Blue Devils are shooting a combined 53.8 percent from the floor during their last four games. I can't see Duke sustaining that sizzling shooting especially given the tough shooting environment in the spacious New Orleans Superdome. 

The Tar Heels have stepped up their defense, too, holding their last two opponents - St. Peter's and UCLA - to a combined average of 57.5 points. 

Villanova has gone Under in eight of its last nine neutral site games. Look for that trend to continue with this game set for the spacious Louisiana Superdome. 

The Wildcats like to play slow. That strategy certainly isn't going to change facing Kansas, a top-30 scoring team, and with the Wildcats minus their second-leading scorer, Justin Moore. He suffered an Achilles tear in the Wildcats' 50-44 victory against Houston in Villanova's last game on March 26. 

Kansas has held seven of its last eight foes to 65 or fewer points. The Under has cashed in seven of the Jayhawks' last 10 games.

The NIT has reached its semifinals. That means the four remaining teams play at Madison Square Garden. That's a huge plus for the Under as college teams unfamiliar with the Garden's large arena and difficult shooting background have trouble scoring. 

So I'm expecting a huge defensive matchup between Washington State and Texas A&M. 

Washington State ranks 64th defensively giving up 65.3 points. The Cougars have held four of their last five opponents to 63 or fewer points. 

Texas A&M holds foes to an average of 66.7 points. The Aggies have given up an average of 60.8 points in their last six games. 

Both teams are below average in field goal percentage. Washington State ranks 321st in field goal shooting. Texas A&M ranks 241st in 3-point accuracy and 268th in free throw percentage.

This is a bad matchup for Miami due to Kansas' height, athleticism and transition defense.

The Hurricanes thrive in transition. That's not going to happen against the Jayhawks, though.

Providence hung against Kansas in its 66-61 loss this past Friday, by getting 16 offensive rebounds. Miami doesn't have the size to do that. The Hurricanes aren't good rebounders on either side of the court ranking 311th in defensive rebounds. Kansas is plus 32 on the boards during the NCAA Tournament.

Miami will need to make its share of 3-pointers. That hasn't been happening for the Hurricanes. They are 13-of-40 from beyond the arc during the tournament.

Arkansas has knocked off outstanding teams all season, culminating with the Razorbacks taking down Gonzaga. 

All the Razorbacks do is win games - 18-3 in their last 21 - and cover spreads - 15-5-1 ATS during this span. 

I get the Mike Krzyewski narrative that things are fated for the Blue Devils to win the national championship in this Krzyewski's final season. I admit, too, that I get a little suspicious whenever I see a referee smile at Krzyewski. 

But I have to go with my numbers and matchup analysis. And it doesn't add up to the Blue Devils being favorites in this point spread range let alone favorites at all. 
I've always liked Eric Musselman. He's doing a fantastic job with Arkansas. He's certainly no slouch as a coach - and his teams cover spreads.

Duke bettors often have to deal with inflated lines. The Blue Devils have failed to cover seven of their last nine NCAA Tournament games. 

Duke is as talented as ever. The Blue Devils don't have that much experience, though. Musselman devised an effective plan to limit Gonzaga star Chet Holmgren. The Razorbacks held Holmgren to 11 points. They held the Zags to nearly 20 points below their season average.

Musselman has had a day and a half to come up with something to thwart Duke star Paolo Bachero. I trust him and I trust Arkansas' defense. 

I'm not falling for North Carolina's status as a No. 8 seed. That low seed has turned out to be a joke with the way the Tar Heels have played. The key is can North Carolina sustain its high level? I don't see that.

Now that Jaime Jaquez has been declared fit to play Friday after suffering an ankle injury, I'm going with the Bruins. UCLA has the deep NCAA Tourney experience, roster depth and ability to limit turnovers that can hurt North Carolina. I see the Bruins controlling tempo, which is huge.

The Bruins lost in overtime to Gonzaga in the semifinals of the NCAA Tournament last year. The Bruins' key players from that game are all back.

Jaquez has been playing his best ball down the stretch averaging 21 points during his last seven games.

The Bruins are 7-1 ATS during their last eight NCAA Tournament games.

Arizona has looked less than stellar in beating Wright State and gritty TCU in overtime during its first two NCAA Tournament games. That's putting it kindly. The Wildcats made only five of 27 3-point shots against the Horned Frogs.

But the Wildcats survived. Now, four days after getting past TCU, I see a regrouped Arizona playing much better. Arizona can beat any team in the nation if it plays its ''A'' game. The Wildcats are due for that.

Arizona ranks No. 3 in the nation in points per game at 84.7 and is fifth in field goal percentage. The Wildcats have the second-tallest frontcourt in the country. Houston isn't nearly that explosive, nor has the height and overall wingspan to defeat the Wildcats. The Cougars also have a severe weakness - free throw shooting. They rank 334th in free throw accuracy at 66.3 percent.

Not to take anything away from Houston's impressive 68-53 second-round tournament victory against Illinois, but several things need to be pointed out. The Big Ten Conference did indeed turn out to be vastly overrated. Only Purdue and Michigan made it to the Sweet 16. The Cougars were successful in beating the Illini because they could get away with double and triple-teaming Illinois superstar big man Kofi Cockburn.

That strategy won't work against Arizona because the Wildcats have several excellent big men plus a better perimeter game. Houston hasn't encountered a guard the likes of Arizona's Bennedict Mathurin.

This is the spot where Arizona steps up and proves just how good it is.

I'm surprised this line is where it is. My power ratings have Northern Colorado as the much better team. So I'll be on the Bears in this CBI Tournament quarterback matchup.

Northern Colorado averages 78.7 points a game, which ranks 27th in the country. The Bears are the 11th most accurate 3-point shooting team in the nation. Asheville is strong defensively against the 3-pointer, but its offense can't match the Bears and it gives up a lot of two-pointers. 

Senior guard Daylen Kountz is the best player on the court giving Northern Colorado that edge. 

Texas beat Kansas and Tennessee this season. The Longhorns certainly are capable of defeating Purdue.

The key is the Longhorns' ninth-ranked defense and the tremendous coaching of Chris Beard.

Purdue coach Matt Painter has gone against Beard twice in the NCAA Tournament and lost both times. Beard bested Painter when he was at Arkansas Little Rock and at Texas Tech in a Sweet 16 victory against Purdue in 2018. Beard led Texas Tech to the NCAA Tourney title game 2019 and Elite Eight in 2018.

I trust Beard to neutralize 7-foot-4 Zach Edey inside and fluster Jaden Ivey forcing him to do too much. On the offensive end, Beard's motion offense can exploit Purdue's defensive liabilities, freeing up Timmy Allen and others to get open looks. The Boilermakers rank 207th in 3-point defense.

Purdue is just 1-8-2 ATS in its last 11 games and 7-18-2 ATS the past 27 times when favored. Purdue had failed to cover in its last six games before burying an overmatched Yale squad in its first-round NCAA Tourney game.

It's a big drop from just missing out on going to the NCAA Tournament to participating in the College Basketball Tournament. 

I don't think UNC Wilmington is too excited playing in this tourney after coming within one win of reaching the NCAA Tournament. The Seahawks fell to Delaware, 59-55, in the Colonial Athletic Association Conference Tournament title game. 

The Keydets rank 19th in the country in scoring at 79.5 points. That's more than eight points per game than what Wilmington averages. 

VMI is strong in the middle with center Jake Stephens and has a dangerous 3-point shooter in Kamdyn Curfman. The Keydets are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games.

Wilmington is ranked 177th in the much-respected Ken Pomeroy's ratings. VMI is rated 159th, according to Pomeroy. 

Great upset win by New Mexico State beating Connecticut, 70-63, as a six-point 'dog on Thursday. That halted a 12-game NCAA Tourney losing streak for the Aggies and gave them their first NCAA Tourney victory in 29 years.

Teddy Allen scored 37 points to spark the Lobos. That was 13 points more than his season average. Jabari Rice averages 13.7 points. No other New Mexico State player averages even eight points a game.

Realistically the Lobos have accomplished a major goal. They not only made the NCAA Tournament, but finally won a game.

Arkansas has been a covering machine going 11-3-1 ATS (79%) in its last 15 games. The Razorbacks, however, didn't cover their opening NCAA Tourney game beating Vermont, 75-71, as a five-point favorite. Teams that won but didn't cover in their opening NCAA Tourney game are 57 percent against the spread in their second-round game during the past 229 instances.

New Mexico State still could be floating on Cloud 9 while Arkansas knows what it's like to go deep into the NCAA Tourney reaching the Elite Eight last year before losing to eventual champion Baylor.

Never mind that Providence won the Big East regular season title. The Friars were a popular fade against South Dakota State in their opening NCAA Tournament game on Thursday. Final score: Providence 66, South Dakota State 57. 

Early money has come against the Friars again in this matchup. Richmond is drawing support after the Spiders stunned Iowa, 67-63, as a 9 1/2-point 'dog on Thursday. 
This is the NCAA Tournament, but Richmond can't help but feel fat and happy after that tremendous upset. Teams that have pulled a first-round NCAA Tourney upset as a double-digit 'dog have covered just 24 percent of the time during the past 29 instances. 

Providence is better than it profiles. The Friars are so disrespected that there is now value to them.

Western Illinois averages 79 points a game, which ranks 25th. The Leathernecks, though, give up 77 points a game and are in the bottom-five in 3-point defense. UTEP is a 3-point shooting team and also an excellent free throw shooting squad. Western Illinois has allowed 80 or more points in seven of its last 10 games.

The Miners are not a big scoring team like Western Illinois, but their style should work well against the Leathernecks. UTEP likes to press leading to baskets in transition. This aggressive style should produce both steals and fouls. It helps the Over that the Miners have increased their tempo from the start of the season.

I want defending national champion Baylor going for me and the point spread is reasonable enough to back the Bears. Baylor has won seven straight NCAA Tournament games, covering the spread in its past six. 

This game is being played in Fort Worth, Texas so Baylor has a home state advantage. Both teams have short rotations usually using just seven players. The Bears are off a 85-49 blowout victory against Norfolk State on Thursday and had less traveling than North Carolina. 

The Bears give up nine fewer points per game than North Carolina. They rank 12th in the nation in 3-point defense compared to the Tar Heels placing 256th in that category. 

It's worth noting that streak shooter Matthew Mayer scored a career-high 22 points against Norfolk State hitting 8 of 12 shots from the floor and 4 of 7 3-pointers. 
The Tar Heels have failed to cover the past six times they've been an NCAA Tourney underdog. 

There are many red flags waving against the Badgers in this matchup. Wisconsin is 1-8 ATS the last nine times it has been favored. The Badgers enter the tournament losers of two in a row, including a shocking home loss to Nebraska. So they are not in peak form by any means.

Johnny Davis, the Big Ten Player of the Year, was hurt against Nebraska and was terrible when he returned against Michigan State missing 16 of 19 shots from the field in Wisconsin's 69-63 loss to the Spartans in the Big Ten Conference Tournament. If Davis isn't 100 percent, the Badgers are in huge trouble.

Colgate has come on very strong winning 19 of its last 20 games, including the last 15. The unsung Raiders have the veteran savvy, scoring depth and 3-point shooting to defeat the Badgers straight-up. Colgate has made the NCAA Tournament in three of the past four years. The Raiders have five players scoring in double figures and rank No. 4 in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage. Wisconsin gave up the highest percentage of open 3-point shots in the Big Ten.

The Raiders are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games. Wisconsin is overhyped right now. The line is inflated, too, because the game is in Milwaukee. But Colgate has the experience to handle that.

I don't like nor trust TCU's offense against Seton Hall's defense, which ranks 26th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Horned Frogs are 249th in scoring at 68.4 points per game. They are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country.

Seton Hall has won eight of its last 10 games. I like the Pirates' backcourt of Jared Rhoden and point guard Kadary Richmond, who is past his thumb injury. I see them carrying the Pirates to victory.

Mike Kryzewski was not pleased at all with Duke's defense in its last game, an 82-67 loss to Virginia Tech in the ACC conference title game this past Saturday. That was 16 points more per game than the Blue Devils' defensive season average of 66 points.

Look for Duke to tighten its defense. Cal State-Fullerton is one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the nation ranking 307th. The Titans haven't shown they can produce big points when stepping up in class. They managed 66 points against Wyoming and 56 versus San Diego State.

The Titans have looked good defensively, though, holding their last four opponents to an average of 57.7 points a game. Duke isn't playing as fast tempo-wise as it did earlier in the season.

I suspected the Big Ten to be overrated with overinflated lines in this NCAA Tournament. Judging by Thursday's results that perception could be true. Iowa was upset by Richmond and Indiana was blown out by St. Mary's. That's a danger sign for Illinois, which was upset by the Hooisers in the Big Ten Conference Tournament quarterfinals.

There's also recent history. The Illini were a No. 1 seed last season in the NCAA Tourney and lost to Loyola of Chicago in the second round as a seven-point favorite.

Illinois is just 4-3 in its last seven games with none of its victories during this time frame coming by more than eight points.

Tennessee Chattanooga is a dangerous opponent for Illinois because the Mocs can keep Kofi Cockburn from dominating the paint with 6-foot-10 Avery Diggs and 6-9 Silvio De Sousa. They also have a dominant scorer in guard Malachi Smith, who averages 20.1 points while shooting 50.5 percent from the floor.

The Mocs are 16-6-1 ATS the past 23 times as an underdog.

I'm going to ride Murray State here. The Racers have won 20 in a row. They last tasted defeat back on Dec. 22 against Auburn, which had been the No. 1 ranked team in the country for a while.

I don't think it's asking too much of Murray State to beat San Francisco, the fourth-best team in the West Coast Conference. I respect the WCC, but I also think Murray State's Ohio Valley Conference is underrated.

San Francisco could be dealing with a case of nerves having not participated in the NCAA Tournament in 24 years. The Dons are guard-oriented with one good big man, center Yauhen Massalski. However, Massalski is dealing with a knee injury sustained 12 days ago. It caused him to miss the Dons' last game. He'll likely play here but his mobility could be affected.

Longwood has scored 79 points in each of its last three games. The Lancers are an offensive-minded team that ranks 34th in 3-point shooting accuracy.

Tennessee is a good 3-point shooting team, too. The Volunteers' outside shooting should open up their inside game. Longwood ranks second-to-last in the tournament in two point field goal defense.

Despite playing in the rugged SEC, the Volunteers still scored at least 72 points in nine of their last 13 games. Now they're stepping down in defensive class.

Both offenses in this Basketball Classic tournament matchup are better than the respective defenses.

Morgan State ranks 63rd in the nation in scoring at 75.7 points. Only 13 teams play at a faster pace than the Bears. Morgan State is weak on defense ranking 264th.

Youngstown ranks 137th offensively averaging 72.8 points. The Penguins should score more than their season average playing at home against such a weak defense. The Over has cashed in six of their last seven home games.

The Penguins, however, rank 193rd in scoring defense, 206th in defensive field goal percentage and 247th in 3-point defense.

Both teams are well above average in second chance scoring percentage.

I thought the Mid-American Conference was strong this season. Toledo was the class of that conference going 26-7, including 17-3 in league. But the Rockets were upset in the semifinals of the MAC Tournament by Akron. So the Rockets didn't get an NCAA Tournament berth. Instead they are in the NIT.

Unfair? Probably. The key is how will the Rockets react? That's a difficult question. I do think the Rockets, though, will win this game. They catch a huge break getting to be the host team. Toledo is 13-1 at home this season. The Rockets are 12-5 ATS the past 17 times when favored.

Dayton is a slow-paced Atlantic-10 Conference team that averages 12 points fewer per game than Toledo. The Flyers are tough defensively. But they don't have the scoring to keep up with the Rockets with the game in Toledo. The Rockets are the sixth-highest scoring team in the nation at 81.5 points. They rank 16th in field goal percentage and 21st in free throw percentage. They also are 16th in the country in assist/turnover ratio.

Wyoming is 25-8 finishing fourth in a very tough Mountain West Conference this season. The Cowboys have a tremendous pair in center Graham Ike and guard Hunter Maldonado. Wyoming is 11-4 the past 15 times as an underdog. Indiana had a very strong Big Ten Tournament covering all three of its games posting upset wins against Michigan and Illinois before falling by three points to Iowa as a 5 1/2-point 'dog.  Perhaps the Hooisers peaked in the tournament as they were 2-7 during their past nine regular season games. Indiana is a very poor free throw shooting team and I don't trust its offense. Wyoming outscored Indiana by nearly three points per game. The Cowboys also have the better 3-point defense. 

Every year there are great spots in the NIT featuring favorites who are overpriced because they are off disappointing seasons and suffer letdowns in their first round game. 

Vanderbilt had an impressive SEC Tournament knocking off Georgia and Alabama before falling to Kentucky by six points while covering as 11-point underdogs. That helped earn Vanderbilt its first postseason invitation in five years. Vanderbilt is 15-15, which is a nice improvement on last season's nine win team.

But I'm not sure how motivated the Commodores will be now in this first round NIT matchup. Belmont should be fired-up, though. The Bruins also are located in Nashville and would like nothing more than to upset their neighborhood rival. 

Belmont has excelled when getting points covering 12 of the last 16 times it has been a 'dog. The Bruins, unlike Vanderbilt, also have NIT experience having competed five times in the tournament during the past six years. 

I find this total to be short. Iowa was the fifth-highest scoring team in the nation during the regular season. The Hawkeyes have been even better during the Big Ten Conference Tournament averaging 92 points in games against Northwestern, Rutgers and Indiana. Iowa is shooting 51 percent from the floor during the tournament and 48 percent from 3-point range. Keegan Murray is living up to his superstar billing averaging 28 points in the tourney. 

Purdue was the seventh-highest scoring team during the regular season averaging 80.7 points. The Boilermakers ranked third in the nation in both field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. They are stepping down in defensive class going against Iowa after having faced Michigan State and Penn State. The Hawkeyes have surrendered an average of 75.2 points in their last four games. 

Regular season Pac-12 champion and No. 2 ranked Arizona committed 17 turnovers against Colorado on Friday. The Buffaloes were sizzling from 3-point range hitting 16 of their 32 shots from beyond the arc for 50 percent.

Yet not only did Arizona win, but the Wildcats also covered the spread in an 82-72 victory.

I have to believe the Wildcats will play a cleaner and much better game against UCLA. The Bruins are off a highly satisfying and emotional Pac-12 semifinal victory against USC last night.

The Bruins are searching for their first Pac-12 tournament title in eight years.

I respect UCLA's defense. But I favor Arizona's scoring more. Only two teams score more than Arizona's 84.7 points per game.

I understand the oddsmaker making St. Peter's the favorite against Monmouth in this Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament title game. The Peacocks won both regular-season meetings, although the games were close. St. Peter's combined winning margin in the two games was 10 points.

But I consider these two teams even. Monmouth has more victories with a season record of 21-12 compared to St. Peter's 18-11.

Points are going to be hard to come by in this matchup played in spacious Boardwalk Hall. The Hawks have covered the past seven times they've been underdogs and are 11-3 ATS the last 14 times going against above .500 teams.

These have been two hot, play-on teams. At this point spread range, though, I have to get involved and back Long Beach State.

All the Beach have done is go 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games. They've won eight of their last 10 games and are 20-7 ATS the past 27 times when getting points.

Santa Barbara is the No. 5 seed in this Big West Tournament. Long Beach State is the No. 1 seed.

I turn to the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference Tournament to find a perplexing line on this matchup between North Central and Coppin State.

North Central is the clear better team. But the line doesn't show that. The Eagles are 16-14. They beat Coppin State, 77-74, in mid-February.

Coppin State is 8-22. Coppin State ranks 281st in scoring, averaging five points fewer per game than North Central.

A case of food poisoning and lack of defense makes Duke an unattractive favorite. The Blue Devils lost at home to North Carolina in their final regular season game and were unimpressive in an 88-79 ACC Tournament quarterfinal win against undermanned Syracuse yesterday.

This is what Duke coach Mike Kryzewski said following the Syracuse game: ''We're not playing very good defense right now. We did not against North Carolina and we did not in this game. We're missing a lot of assignments. Kryzewski also said some Duke players were dealing with food poisoning.

Miami is 9-3 ATS as an underdog this season, including upsetting Duke, 76-74, on the road in January.

Iowa is peaking at the right time. The Hawkeyes have won and covered six of their last seven games with the only blemish being a two-point road loss to Illinois. Iowa just blew out Northwestern, 112-76, on Thursday.

The Hawkeyes entered the Big Ten Conference Tournament as the fifth-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 83.3 points. That's 16 points more per game than Rutgers.

The Scarlet Knights average 67 points. That average shrinks to 62 if you count just their last four games.

This is a big revenge spot for Iowa. The Scarlet Knights held them to a season-low when they beat Iowa, 48-46, at home on Jan. 19.

This has been a down year for Utah State. I don't see the Aggies pulling off an upset against Colorado State in this Mountain West Conference Tournament game.

Utah State blew out a bad Air Force team on Wednesday to open tournament play. Prior to that, however, the Aggies had dropped five of their last seven regular season games.

This is in direct contrast to Colorado State, which enters the tournament having won eight of its last nine games. The Rams' last three games were victories against Boise State, which finished one game ahead of Colorado State to capture the regular season title, Utah State by 11 points on the road and Wyoming, the fourth-place team in the conference. 

Earlier this season, the Rams defeated the Aggies by five points. 

The Rams are led by David Roddy, who was named the Mountain West Player of the Year. 

Power rating-wise I have these two Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference teams ranked close to even. If anything, a slight edge to South Carolina State.

So seeing this point spread, I'm compelled to get involved with South Carolina State. The Bulldogs are 15-15, while Morgan State is 12-13.

South Carolina State is 12-5-2 ATS when going against opponents with a losing record.

Norfolk State is the top team in the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference. Delaware State is the worst team.

But I'm going to be on the Hornets because this line is too inflated.

These teams just met in mid-February and Norfolk State won, 69-66.

Delaware State hasn't lost by more than 13 points during its last 12 games. The Hornets have played a number of close games. They are 6-1 ATS the past seven times as underdogs.

The Hornets nearly upset Maryland-Eastern Shore in their last game six days ago losing, 63-59, as 10-point 'dogs after trailing by only one point at halftime.

First note the venue: Madison Square Garden. That's been a huge Under arena for college basketball tournament games.

Combine that with Butler and you're going to have a low-scoring matchup. The Bulldogs rank 336th in scoring at 63.1 points per game. They are one of the slowest-paced teams in the country ranking among the bottom-15 in tempo. The Bulldogs don't figure to get second-chance points either. Xavier led the Big East in defensive rebounding.

Butler ranks in the top 100 defensively, though, and Xavier is a bad 3-point shooting team. The Musketeers have failed to score more than 66 points in three of their last five games.

Don't expect much scoring in this Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament game. Not with Canisius and Fairfield matching up.

Canisius is one of the worst shooting teams in the country ranking 337th. The Golden Griffins, though, haven't given up more than 67 points in four of their last five games.

Fairfield has surrendered an average of only 59.3 points during its last three games. The Stags, however, managed just 41 points against St. Peter's during their last game. No team plays at a slower pace in the MAAC than Fairfield.

Note, too, this game is at neutral site Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City. The MAAC has used this site for its postseason tournament since 2020 and the Under has cashed 73 percent of the time during the previous 15 games. It's not a fluke as the shooting background is tough because of the spacious gym and unfamiliar surroundings.

I like the way Tennessee Chattanooga is playing down the stretch. The Mocs have won their last four games. They blew out Wofford in a semifinal matchup of this Southern Conference Tournament. The Mocs are the best team in this conference and I see them getting the job down here.

The teams met twice during the regular season and the Mocs won both times, including defeating Furman by six points on the road on Feb. 12.

Just because Hartford is playing in its home arena doesn't mean the Hawks should be favored against this opponent, let alone by this many points. 

Albany is 13-17. Hartford is 11-19. 

The teams split their two meetings this season. Albany beat the Hawks on the road, 71-52. Hartford got its revenge this past Tuesday defeating the Great Danes, 67-55. The Hawks shot 13 more free throws in that contest. They also made 13 of 24 3-pointers for 54 percent. Hartford shoots 37.7 percent from beyond the arc on the season. 

The Great Danes are 8-1-2 ATS in their past 11 away games. This has been an underdog series with the 'dog covering six of the last seven. 

UNLV has come on strong, but the Rebels still failed to finish among the top four teams in the Mountain West Conference. This is UNLV's final regular season game and last matchup before the Mountain West Conference Tournament.

It's a flat spot for the Rebels.

Not so for New Mexico, which has revenge for a 29-point loss to the Rebels earlier in the season.

The Lobos have a winning home record. The Rebels have a losing road mark.

Upset special here. Texas State enters the Sun Belt Conference Tournament as the No. 1 seed. But the Bobcats face danger. They haven't played since Feb. 25.

Louisiana Lafayette is playing its best ball winning four of its last five games. This includes a 67-64 victory against Texas Arlington on Thursday in a first-round Sun Belt Conference Tournament game. The Ragin' Cajuns won't be rusty. They also won't have the pressure on them like the Bobcats will.

The Bobcats aren't a big scoring team. They've produced fewer than 70 points in 10 of their last 12 games.

I have Mercer power-rated high than this so I'm going to back the Bears in this first round matchup of the Southern Conference Tournament 
Mercer is 15-16 while Western Carolina is 11-20. 

This game is at a neutral site. More reason not to like Western Carolina. The Catamounts are 3-13 in away/neutral site games. 

Mercer should face little resistance putting up points. Western Carolina has one of the worst defenses in the nation ranking 337th giving up 77.1 points per game. 

Richmond defeated St. Bonaventure, 71-61, earlier this season. I see the Spiders repeating that performance in the rematch. Taking points is a nice bonus.

St. Bonaventure began conference play slowly before rolling off seven straight wins. However, the Bonnies' streak was snapped in brutal fashion with a 74-51 road loss to VCU this past Tuesday. The Bonnies were minus Osun Osunniyi in that game due to an ankle injury and could be missing him again in this matchup. He averages 11 points and is the Bonnies' leading rebounder.

Richmond is experienced, solid on both sides of the ball, ranks ninth nationally in turnover rate and hasn't lost two straight games since Dec. 30-Jan. 2.

The Spiders also are road tested going 14-5-1 ATS during their past 20 away games, including 8-3 ATS in their past 11. St. Bonaventure is 4-9 ATS the past 13 times against opponents with a winning record.

The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament is upon us. The games are played at Enterprise Center, which has a notorious shooting drop. This has made for a fantastic record on Unders - to the tune of 64 percent the past 103 times.

The Missouri Valley is a conference known for defense and underrated coaching. This really comes out, too, during the conference tournament.

Indiana State has been held to 66 or fewer points in two of its last three games. Illinois State has been held to 70 or fewer points in regulation during nine of its last 10 games.

Campbell is the better team. Power rating-wise, I have the Fighting Camels as a mid-size favorite at a neutral site in this Big South Tournament matchup.

Presbyterian is 12-19. Campbell is 15-12.

The Fighting Camels have a far superior defense giving up fewer than 62 points per game. They rank 22nd in the nation defensively. Presbyterian is one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country.

The oddsmaker knows how bad Green Bay is. But he might be a little behind the curve recognizing the improvement with Detroit Mercy.

The Titans have won and covered three of their last four games beating Northern Kentucky, Wright State and Cleveland State during this time span. Those are three of the top four teams in the Horizon League.

Green Bay is 5-24. The Phoenix play their worst on the road, too, going 1-12. They are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games. Detroit is 8-1 at home.

Detroit won't be showing any mercy as Green Bay beat the Titans, 70-63, at home in the first meeting. Detroit's star player, Antoine Davis, had a rare terrible shooting game in that loss.

The Titans are 18-7-1 ATS the past 26 times versus sub .500 foes.

This is a kill spot for Ohio State. The Buckeyes are looking for redemption after getting upset this past Sunday at Maryland.

Ohio State still has much to play for trying to secure a top-four seed into the Big Ten Tournament and the bye into the quarterfinals that goes with it. The Buckeyes are 12-1 at home this season, including 8-1 in the Big Ten. They also are 8-2 ATS following a point spread loss.

Nebraska has been bad again this season going 8-21 with a 2-16 Big Ten record. The Cornhuskers, though, are in a rare flat spot having stunned Penn State as a 10 1/2-point road 'dog, 93-70, this past Sunday.

San Diego State has the No. 2 defense in the country. I have great respect for the Aztecs. But I'm not buying Wyoming as a home underdog.

The Cowboys have won all 14 of their home games this season. They have the two best players on the court in Graham Ike and Hunter Maldonado. Wyoming averages nearly 10 more points per game than San Diego State and also has a respectable defense giving up 65.6 points, which ranks 74th, and is 24th in 3-point defense.

Wyoming is 23-5 overall and 12-3 in the Mountain West Conference. San Diego State is 18-7 overall and 10-4 in the Mountain West.

The Cowboys are proven, too, against good competition going 22-8-1 ATS versus opponents with a winning record.

Illinois is the better team. Says who? Respected rankings and statistics. 

The Illini are ranked 15th in the BPI ratings and 16th according to KenPom ratings. Illinois is 20th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 27th in adjusted defensive efficiency. 

Michigan ranks 27th in the BPI ratings and 30th in the KenPom rankings. The Wolverines are 24th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 68th in adjusted defensive efficiency. 

Illinois has the best player on the court if not the entire Big Ten Conference in center Kofi Cockburn, who averages 21.2 points and 10.8 rebounds per game. 
The Illini have defeated Michigan the past four times, including a 68-53 win on Jan. 14. 

Michigan is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games against opponents with a winning road record. 

Tempo is the key here. Texas A&M Corpus Christi plays at the second-fastest pace in the Southland Conference. Houston Baptist ranks 312th defensively giving up an average of 74.5 points per game. 

The Islanders have gone Over the total in 21 of their last 28 road games. 

The Huskies are pushing pace, too. They've had each of their last six games hit 145 points or more on the combined score. Houston Baptist is averaging 82 points in its last six games. The Huskies have gone Over in seven of their last nine home games. 

Barring winning the Pac-12 Conference Tournament, Colorado won't be going to the NCAA Tournament. So this revenge spot is the Buffaloes' game of the year.
It didn't show in the first meeting because the Buffaloes missed 15 of their 20 3-point shots in a 21-point loss, but Colorado can hang within single digits of Arizona based on their size and home situation. 

The Wildcats have a bigger game on deck playing at USC. 

Colorado has been playing well with five victories in its last six games. This is the Buffaloes' final home game of the season so it's senior night. This has been a home team series with the host covering six of the last seven times.
 
The Buffaloes normally shoot much better from beyond the arch than they did during the first meeting. Arizona is just average defending against the 3-pointer. 

North Texas has won 13 in a row. A fact the oddsmaker is well aware of. So there is line inflation with the Mean Green.

Louisiana Tech has won four of its last five games. The Bulldogs were favored in the first meeting this season between these teams and should have won the game. They blew a 17-point second-half lead and lost, 63-62. So there is strong revenge motivation.

The Bulldogs might have the Conference USA Player of the Year in big man Kenneth Lofton Jr., who averages 16.7 points and 10.7 rebounds. North Texas likes to pound inside. That's a big part of the Mean Green offense. Lofton, a huge wide body at 275 pounds, can make that difficult.

Discounting a 63-60 loss to UTEP, the Bulldogs are averaging 86.5 points in their last four games.

Louisiana Tech has been strong on the road covering 16 of its last 22 away contests.

No team plays at a slower pace than North Texas. So it's not a fluke the Under has cashed in 16 of the Mean Green's last 23 games.

North Texas is patient looking to work inside. Louisiana Tech has a defensive stopper in big man Kenneth Loften Jr.

There were 125 points scored in the first meeting, which was won by North Texas, 63-62. Only once has the number of points exceeded 125 points during North Texas' last 11 games.

Louisiana Tech has scored 82 or more points in four of its last five games. However, the Bulldogs haven't faced a defense near the caliber of North Texas. The Mean Green give up the fewest points in the nation at 55.6. They rank third in defensive rebounding and fifth in 3-point defense.

Xavier is in a slump. Seton Hall has stepped up its game. I see the wrong team being favored here.

The Musketeers may not be fully recovered from their triple overtime loss to Providence this past Wednesday night.

That loss was Xavier's fifth in its last six games. The Musketeers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games.

Seton Hall has won five of its past seven games. The Pirates' only two losses during this stretch occurred on the road to Connecticut and Villanova. Seton Hall covered both of those games. The Pirates are 4-0 ATS in their last four away games.

San Diego State is in fourth place in the Mountain West Conference. The Aztecs just lost to first-place Boise State by one point this past Tuesday. The Aztecs have second-place Wyoming on deck following this opponent - San Jose State.

San Jose State is last in the conference.

So San Diego State can't be blamed if they take the Spartans for granted while in the middle of a conference sandwich.

The Aztecs haven't been good lately in this role. They've been favored by 14 points or more three times in their past six games. They are 0-3 ATS in those games.

The Aztecs' 0-3 ATS mark laying big points isn't a fluke. San Diego State plays great defense, but only averages 65.1 points a game. That ranks 306th.

San Jose State hung in during the first meeting between the two teams losing, 72-62, on Feb. 9 as a 17-point home 'dog.

The Spartans should be loose and confident having upset New Mexico, 71-55, as a 5 1/2-point home 'dog during their previous game. That snapped a 14-game losing streak. The Spartans are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games and have covered in five of their past six road contests.

Talk about train wrecks. That's Oregon State. The Beavers have gone from Elite Eight of last season to 3-22 this season. They've lost 12 in a row with 10 of the past 11 defeats occurring by double-digits. They are a team that can't even be trusted to put forth a full effort. They have yet to post a victory in 2022.

Making things worse for the Beavers is a number of their players are hurt.

The Trojans, on the other hand, are healthy and strong on the road covering seven of their last nine away contests.

UC Davis has had several cancellations this season. The Aggies have played just 18 games going 11-7. However, the Aggies are beginning to make a move having won three in a row. 

UC Santa Barbara is a fade on the road. The Gauchos have failed to cover in eight of their last 10 away matchups. 

I don't see the Aggies having a problem handling the Gauchos at home. Getting points is a nice bonus. 

Northern Arizona isn't very good at 9-18. But 6-20 Idaho State is downright terrible. I find this a short number to lay with the Lumberjacks at home.

Idaho State ranks 326th in scoring at 64.2 points a game. The Bengals are just as bad defensively ranking 340th in defensive field goal percentage.

The Lumberjacks have covered six of their last eight games.

After a slow start, Tulane has come on to cover 11 of its last 14 games. The Green Wave draw Houston at home after the Cougars just scored a 76-74 double overtime road win against Wichita State this past Sunday. The Cougars' next game is a home revenge matchup against SMU. So it's not a great spot for the Cougars. 

Tulane, meanwhile, hasn't played in eight days. So the Green Wave should be rested and ready. They average barely two points fewer per game than the 14th-ranked Cougars. 

Chattanooga rolled past East Tennessee State, 82-52, as a 7 1/2-point home favorite on Dec. 31.

The Mocs may not win by 30 points again, but they still should easily win this game.

Chattanooga is the top team in the Southern Conference with a 22-7 overall record and 12-4 league mark. East Tennessee State ranks eighth out of 10 teams in the Southern Conference with a 6-10 league mark. The Buccaneers are under .500 on the season overall.

The Mocs are 21-5-1 ATS the past 27 times playing a below .500 opponent. They also have covered 67 percent of their last 55 road games. The Mocs are 5-1 in their last six road contests.

Chattanooga clearly is superior to the Buccaneers outscoring them per game while giving up an average of eight fewer points a game.

The Buccaneers have revenge and senior night playing in their final home game of the season. But Chattanooga isn't going to lack motivation. The Mocs are on a rare two-game losing skid falling twice at home as big favorites during their past two games. They haven't lost three in a row all season. Chattanooga is 20-7-1 ATS after not covering the spread in its previous game.

East Tennessee State defeated The Citadel in its last game. The Buccaneers have failed to cover the spread six of the past seven times following a victory.

Villanova nearly got caught peeking ahead to this game before dispatching Georgetown, 74-66, at home this past Saturday. Look for the Wildcats to be far more focused against UConn.

I consider Villanova to be the superior team. The Wildcats are 21-6 and 14-3 in the Big East. UConn is 19-7 and 10-5 in the Big East.

The teams met at Villanova on Feb. 5 and the Wildcats won, 85-74. I see a similar scenario for Villanova so catching points is an added bonus.

This line came much lower than I expected given the class difference between these two teams. 

Miami is 19-8 and tied for third in the ACC with an 11-5 conference mark. The Hurricanes currently are ranked 65th in the NET rankings. They are firmly in the mix for an NCAA Tournament bid. The Hurricanes shouldn't lack for motivation after letting a 10-point second-half lead slip in a 74-71 home loss to Virginia this past Saturday. 
Now Miami takes to the road where it has covered six of its past seven away contests.

Pittsburgh is ranked 169th in the NET rankings. The Panthers average 12 points fewer per game than the Hurricanes. Pittsburgh ranks 341st in scoring at 62.5 points per game. The Panthers are not going to the Big Dance with an 11-17 record and 6-11 ACC mark. 

I'll willingly accept this many points with a desperate Michigan State and Tom Izzo. The Spartans are 1-4 in their last five games. They are 8-3 ATS following a loss.

Iowa, in contrast to Michigan State, has won four of its last five. The Hawkeyes are averaging 90.5 points in their last five games.

This has contributed to an inflated line, though.

Points and possessions matter in the rugged Big Ten. The Spartans haven't been an underdog of more than three points in any of their 15 Big Ten games. The Hawkeyes aren't that much better than the Spartans - if they are even better at all.

I don't trust Penn State's weak offense, nor do I trust the Nittany Lions on the road.

Penn State ranks 306th in scoring. Maryland averages five more points per game than the Nittany Lions.

The Terrapins hold a backcourt edge with Eric Ayala and Fatts Russell, both of whom average more points than any player on Penn State.

The Nittany Lions are 1-6 in their Big Ten Conference road games. They have lost their last five away Big Ten matchups.

Maryland has looked good recently. The Terrapins nearly upset Purdue on the road two games ago falling by one point. Maryland then buried Nebraska, 90-74, in its last game hitting 52 percent from the floor while turning the ball over just four times.

The Terrapins have proven themselves at home knocking off Illinois there and losing to Wisconsin by only one point.